textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Overall, this forecast looks warmer and drier than normal for the first week of January. A quick-moving system will struggle to generate storms and any significant rainfall for our area due to the limted time for return flow. This system will be followed by weak polar high pressure and a brief cool-down before more significant warmth returns with a building upper level ridge over the central CONUS.

Looking at the details, scattered showers and storms should return Friday afternoon and peak Friday evening in the warm advection pattern. Thunder is possible, particularly south of I-20 where some limited thermodynamic instability, 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE, could develop. Atop the rather shallow surface moisture, owing to limited residence time over water of the incoming prefrontal moisture plume, a remnant capping inversion with poor lapse rates above will limit shower/storm coverage in the areas where the better combination of shear and instability is likely. This will likely preclude meaningful upgrades in the risk outlook beyond the chance for an isolated stronger storm or two with wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Should low-level moisture depth be more substantial than estimated or the mid level environment be a bit cooler (either due to underestimated cold advection aloft or a greater amount of lifting than is expected), it is not totally out of the question that a rogue thunderstorm near or south of I-20 could briefly approach severe limits with some risk for a damaging wind gusts. This outcome does not currently appear likely but can't totally be ruled out given the quality of shear that expected to be in place at the time (>200 0-1km SRH and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear). Overall, the primary impacts for almost everyone are likely to be 0.1-0.25" of rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder with little fanfare otherwise.

This system moves out of our forecast area Sunday morning bringing an end to rain chances. Quiet conditions then are likely through much of next week as southerly flow moderates the temperatures to well above early January normals - daytime highs into the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s for mid/late week. The next chances for rain will likely not arrive until near the end of the forecast period, by late next week. /NF/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Southwest winds around 10kts with clear skies are expected. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 50 71 57 63 / 0 40 50 10 Meridian 45 69 57 67 / 0 30 80 30 Vicksburg 51 73 54 63 / 0 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 47 73 60 73 / 0 20 70 30 Natchez 51 75 57 67 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 50 66 49 57 / 10 50 20 10 Greenwood 50 66 51 59 / 0 60 60 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.