textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Through Tuesday: Local radars were lit up over the eastern half of our CWA with moderate to heavy rainfall, including a few thunderstorms. This activity was being enhanced by a couple of weak MCVs. The first MCV now over our northeast zones moved up from the south this morning and resulted in isolated severe storm potential. This severe storm threat has ended although the potential for heavy rainfall will continue into this evening as a second MCV moving north over Forest county will continue tracking north and gradually dissipating. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a cutoff low spinning over east Texas. This feature is expected to open up tonight and lift north Tuesday. This will help maintain a deep southerly flow over our CWA that will maintain rain chances tonight and Tuesday eventhough the current activity will decrease this evening. Rainfall intensity will increase again Tuesday during the day. Latest guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall amounts will again be over the southeast half of our CWA. The "Limited" threat for flooding graphic will be maintained as the rainfall amounts projected are not a slam dunk for flash flooding. A few of our rivers are on the rise in our southeast so a few more river flood warnings may be issued later this evening. /22/

Through early next week...

Generally speaking, broad cyclonic flow will persist and will maintain moist trajectories that support continued rain chances through the period. As such, the threat for flash flooding continues and will continue to advertise areawide limited flash flood. The graphic has been updated through Wednesday, and further extensions may be needed for as long as the pattern persists. Additionally, there may be mesoscale features day-to-day, such as MCVs, that could locally increase threat. Marginal severe threats day-to-day may also persist as these MCVs are capable of localized severe winds and weak tornadoes. The tropical-like airmass characterized by 1.5-2.0 inch PWAT does not modify until early next week as the trough axis shifts east of the area. Most guidance has low rain chances persisting through Monday and we don't look to completely dry out until beyond the period. /SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 124 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Radars were showing SHRA/TSRA over the eastern half of the area resulting in lower flight restrictions. VFR conditions will continue in the west with isold SHRA/TSRA psbl this aftn. The SHRA/TSRA activity wl gradually dissipate after 00Z Tue and VFR conditions are expected until after 06Z. After 06Z MVFR cigs are expected to develop then lower to IFR by 11Z. The IFR cigs wl improve to MVFR by 16Z but MVFR cigs will prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 83 70 85 / 30 60 30 90 Meridian 68 81 69 86 / 50 80 30 90 Vicksburg 67 84 70 86 / 40 60 30 80 Hattiesburg 69 82 70 85 / 40 90 30 80 Natchez 68 85 71 86 / 40 60 40 90 Greenville 67 84 69 85 / 30 60 30 70 Greenwood 67 84 70 86 / 20 50 40 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.