textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal (Level 1 of 5) severe risk for damaging wind gusts today mainly during the afternoon into early evening.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Most of the area is rain free this evening, but showers/storms are moving into the western portions of the area. A couple of these storms have already reaches severe limits this evening and cannot rule out a strong/severe storm over the next hour or so. Hi-res models suggest these storms are going to dissipate this evening, but showers will continue to be possible overnight. Lows tonight will fall into the low 70s./15/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

For early to mid week: Shortwave energy in the westerlies has been drawn southward into the subtropical ridge weakness and pinched off over the Ozark region where it is supporting a lower-end severe weather risk that extends into western portions of our forecast area. For today and again Tuesday, this feature will help to initiate a few strong to severe storms in the afternoon/evening in a hot, unstable, and very moist airmass. There should be another MCV moving in Monday with another marginal damaging wind risk expected for isolated storms in the ArkLaMiss region per SPC. Confidence isn't the greatest in terms of the area for these risks, so keep up with the latest outlooks. Would also keep an eye on any heavy rain threats as there may be just enough low/mid level flow and moisture transport to anchor a convective band or two that results in some locally heavy rainfall. This is a very low confidence phenomenon so no formal messaging is being sent out about it. Otherwise, in terms of heat danger threats, we should stay below limited thresholds for the most part.

Late week into the weekend: The subtropical ridge is still forecast by guidance to rebuild, and this should lessen convective rainfall coverage while allowing heat stress to intensify. Additional heat related graphics for limited/elevated heat threats may eventually become necessary. We'll continue to monitor any lower-end severe threats on a daily basis. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

All sites are VFR this evening and expect these conditions to continue through most of the period./15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 30 20 Meridian 92 73 91 73 / 30 10 30 10 Vicksburg 91 73 90 73 / 30 20 30 30 Hattiesburg 92 74 92 74 / 20 20 40 20 Natchez 92 73 90 73 / 40 30 50 20 Greenville 92 72 90 73 / 20 30 40 40 Greenwood 92 72 91 72 / 20 20 50 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.