textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue this evening before dry weather kicks in Friday into the weekend. - Dangerous heat will build and spread across the area by this weekend and worsen into early next week with heat index values eventually topping 110 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Today through next Wednesday...

Northwest flow and convective coverage continues today across the region. Shortwave trough energy, combined with afternoon insolation and heat/humidity is leading to convective initiation and afternoon scattered coverage. Precipitable water (PWs) will remain generally the same (1.8 to 2.0 inches) so scattered coverage (25 to 55 percent) will be the norm. There are a little better lapse rates (around 25C vertical totals and 500mb temps around -8C) and light northwesterly shear (10 to 15kts) so cannot rule out a rogue strong storm. Morning microburst composite from 12Z JAN sounding indicate some diurnal microburst risk, so will have to monitor any more robust storm. Highs are moderating a little more seasonable (upper 80s to low 90s to the south). Humidity will creep up somewhat as well, with heat indices peaking into the upper 90s to low 100s, especially in the south. Inherited HWO graphic for dangerous heat today remains valid.

Mean ridging at the surface and aloft will build in Friday through the weekend, leading to dry weather into the weekend. Deepening ridge (594 to 596DM) and warm advection will drive summertime warmth and humidity back into the region. Highs will moderate (3F to 6F above Friday to Sunday and 4F to 8F above early next week), generally low to mid 90s Friday into Sunday and mid to upper 90s next Monday through next Wednesday. Dangerous heat becomes an increasing concern, especially Sunday and beyond as heat indices reach near or in excess of 105F degrees areawide to even in excess of 110F degrees at times. HWO graphics and heat headlines will likely be needed during this stretch of dangerous heat. Lows remain seasonably warm during this time (low to mid 70s). Next best chances of rain (20 to 45 percent) will not be until early to mid next week (next Tuesday into Wednesday) as an easterly wave slides under northward building ridge aloft. Highest coverage will be in central to southern areas, generally south of Interstate 20 into the Highway 84 corridor. Some stronger storms cannot be ruled out during this time as seasonably warm highs into the mid to upper 90s, increased heat and humidity and light southeasterly flow (10 to 20kts) could lead to some scattered organized convection at times. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Isolated -TSRA wl affect MEI, PIB, and HBG until after 01Z. After 01Z VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. A gusty sw wind 18-20kts wl develop by the aftn at GLH and GWO and gradually subside by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 92 74 92 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 71 92 74 92 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 73 91 75 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 94 75 94 / 30 0 0 0 Natchez 73 92 74 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 73 90 76 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 73 91 76 92 / 10 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.