textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- An active weather pattern will continue through Friday. Isolated severe storms and localized flooding will be possible again this afternoon into this evening.

- Heavy rain and localized flooding will be a possibility again Friday into Friday evening.

- Dry and cooler conditions will return this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Near term: As multiple remnant mesoscale boundaries persist across Arkansas through North and Northeast MS early this morning, multiple rounds of convection have persisted into the overnight. Even in areas where conditions have become more stable near the surface due to repeated convection, moderate elevated instability has lingered, resulting in a continued hail threat. Convection may still be surface or near surface based in northwestern portions of the areas, where SPC mesoanalysis depicts weak to moderate mixed layer instability, thus a damaging wind and isolated tornado threat persists as well early this morning. Tornado Watch 173 remains valid through 9Z for roughly the northern half of the area. We have also had localized flash flooding from training convection dating back to last night, particularly in typically prone urban areas. A general weakening trend with a decrease in convective coverage is expected through daybreak.

Heading through today, the cold front helping to force this convection will finally begin to make southward progress into our area. Ahead of the front, redevelopment/strengthening of convection is expected later today, mainly into this afternoon and early evening across northeast LA and central/south MS. Given sufficient deep shear and somewhat steep mid level lapse rates, damaging wind gusts and severe criteria hail will be possible. There may even be sufficient low level shear to not be able to rule out a tornado. Additionally, with the potential for training and multiple rounds of storms again, localized flooding will be possible across this area, and we'll highlight a limited flash flood threat, where REFS mean QPF shows potential for pockets of 3-5" of rain.

Thursday and Friday: The cold front will shift into south MS and south LA by early Thursday, stalling near the coast by late Thursday. Continued upper disturbances during this time will result in continuing waves of showers with perhaps a few storms, with higher rain chances over the southern half of our forecast area closer to the front.

By late Friday, a potent southern stream shortwave will likely bring our next shot at heavier precip and potential for strong convection. The major caveat with this activity will be the stalled surface boundary and how far inland the developing surface cyclone can force it. With little space between the departing long wave trough and the incoming shortwave, the warm front will be facing a tug-of-war scenario as continental dry air and a surface high attempting to remain entrenched squares off against the southerly mass recovery attempts of the incoming surface cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy and wet weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be defined by this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may play out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some stronger storm risk across the Hwy 98 corridor, with a heavy rain/localized flooding threat possible even north of the front for areas south of I-20 Friday into Friday evening.

Saturday through Tuesday: Surface ridging will build across the Deep South resulting in dry and cooler conditions this weekend into early next week. Sunday morning looks to be the coolest point in this stretch, with temps expected to fall into the 40s areawide, and lows in the 40s possible three days a row in some of our cooler spots. Moisture will begin to recover again late Monday into Tuesday, with potential for showers and thunderstorms returning by the middle of next week. /DL/EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 101 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions will linger at several sites as low stratus moves in behind clearing storm coverage. Winds are currently southerly and gusting at several sites. However, winds remain southerly and become light by 08Z Wednesday morning. -TSRA will move through central and southern MS tomorrow afternoon possibly impacting sites from 29/22Z-30/04Z. /KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 61 76 55 / 60 80 30 50 Meridian 85 59 76 53 / 60 80 30 40 Vicksburg 83 60 75 55 / 70 80 30 50 Hattiesburg 89 64 79 58 / 50 80 40 40 Natchez 87 63 76 57 / 70 80 40 50 Greenville 77 58 71 55 / 50 50 10 50 Greenwood 79 57 73 54 / 40 60 10 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.