textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather and heavy rainfall threats are being monitored for this weekend. - There is a marginal to slight severe storm risk for late tonight into Saturday.

- There is a slight severe storm risk now for portions of the area Sunday into Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

This morning:

The anticipated overnight convection has been developing and organizing from southern Arkansas/northern Louisiana into north/central Mississippi. The eastward extent of this convection has limited instability to move into (even considering MUCAPE for these elevated storms), but the west-east line trailing behind it is developing in a zone of moisture convergence and on the northern edge of 1000+ J/kg of MUCAPE. With deep-layer shear oriented parallel to this boundary, quick upscale growth into a linear MCS is expected over the next few hours. Cold pool dynamics should push the line southward through morning as it fills in. Latest HRRR runs suggest the line clears our southeast counties by around 900-1000 AM, which seems reasonable. Will maintain the current outlook for strong to severe thunderstorms through morning.

Today through next Friday:

This overnight convection may work over the atmosphere well enough as it builds south into the warm, moist advection that additional storms do not develop later today. Certainly any severe threat will track southward with the MCS and not re-develop today. A later MCS may make an approach from the northwest late tonight, but we're eying daytime Sunday for more shower and thunderstorm development locally as the next cold front moves southeast through the region, and as the atmosphere recovers. There is a Slight Risk for severe thunderstorms into our southeast AR, far northeast LA, and parts of the MS Delta region with this activity, and a Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms across the remainder of the area. Temperatures look to remain mostly in the normal range for early to mid May, even behind the cold front passage. Monday night and Tuesday night's lows will be the coolest of the 7 days (around 48-52 degrees), but nothing exceptional. And then high temperatures in the 80s will return areawide by Wednesday. /NF/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Categories will range from VFR-IFR as low stratus decks persist across southern TAF sites, while VCTS/TSRA intermittently impacts northern TAF GLH/GWO/GTR sites overnight into Sat morning. A few storms may contain hail or wind gusts to 50 kt. Temporary visibility reductions and gusty wind will be possible in TS. Rain is expected to decrease Sat morning with much lower rain chances through most of the day. Ceilings will be slow to improve, and may remain at MVFR or IFR through the remainder of the TAF period for sites from TVR/JAN/MEI and south./KP/DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 79 64 83 64 / 60 20 50 60 Meridian 79 62 83 63 / 70 20 50 60 Vicksburg 80 64 84 64 / 50 10 40 60 Hattiesburg 79 64 84 65 / 80 40 60 70 Natchez 80 65 84 66 / 60 20 50 70 Greenville 82 64 84 62 / 10 20 60 70 Greenwood 83 63 85 63 / 10 10 50 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.