textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The threat for severe storms will diminish as we go through the remainder of the afternoon.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will peak Sunday into Monday. - We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Near term: Regional radars remain lit up this afternoon from the delta region to the pine belt as a line of storms was lifting to the north. This activity was associated with an MCV noted over the southwest portions of our CWA. Although the intensity of the storms within the line have shown a decrease of the last hour, damaging wind gusts will remain possible along and north of the line the remainder of the afternoon. In addition to damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rain will also accompany the storms. Although the line was moving, minor runoff issues may occur especially in low lying and poor drainage areas due to the rainfall over the last several days. This activity will weaken early this evening. /22/

Concerning flooding threats this weekend through next week:

This pattern has the potential to result in significant flooding at some point due to both favorable antecedent conditions and synoptic scale weather pattern. After several days of widespread rainfall with locally heavy amounts, much of the area has soaked grounds, and additional widespread rainfall will raise concerns for flash flooding.

In the near term, the the primary FF threat is associated with the MCV currently crossing the forecast area. Thus far it has been progressive enough to limit the threat, with the exception of southeast Arkansas where the MCV commahead is having more influence. Will continue to monitor for cell mergers producing localized intense rainfall rates downstream of the system as we go through the remainder of the afternoon. A recent trend in the near term scenario has been for deeper moisture transport to be intercepted by coastal convection in the wake of the MCV, and this should help to limit overnight flood threats.

For Sunday into Monday, this will be the primary time for the greatest flash flooding threat as an upper level trough in the subtropical stream closes off and parks over eastern Texas. As this happens, we'll see persistent and very moist southerly flow ahead of the upper low increase over the forecast area. Cyclonic flow aloft will help to enhance moisture convergence and ascent, but there will be unknowns in the mesoscale that ultimately determine where more focused areas of training deep convection may set up. The best guess is that heavier rainfall will focus along/south of I-20 corridor, but determining greater flash flood threats will be driven by antecedent conditions as well, with western/southern areas having received greater rainfall to this point. For now have opted to increase the area of the elevated threat area with the expectation that a flash flood watch will be needed at some point soon. Depending on how things evolve, we may need to consider a localized significant threat area as well in the HWO graphics.

Going beyond Monday, there will be a temporary lull in the heavy rainfall pattern as the upper low is forecast to pull away early in the work week. Additional shortwave trough energy dropping into the western longwave CONUS trough will eventually reset the pattern, and this promises to bring additional heavy rain threats as we go into mid/late week. This of course could be a greater concern depending on how much falls the remainder of the weekend. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 101 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

A line of TSRA across the southern zones will continue lifting north through the aftn. Additional TSRA were noted over the nw and wl affect GLH before the main lines arrives. Away from TSRA VFR conditions are expected to prevail and continue until after 08Z. After 08Z MVFR cigs wl develop and lower to IFR by 12Z. Conditions wl be slow to improve before the end of the TAF period as -RA is expected to develop over much of the area. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 81 68 80 / 60 80 90 90 Meridian 67 83 68 80 / 60 80 70 90 Vicksburg 68 79 68 80 / 50 70 70 90 Hattiesburg 69 82 69 80 / 50 90 80 100 Natchez 68 78 68 81 / 70 80 70 80 Greenville 68 80 67 79 / 60 50 80 80 Greenwood 67 81 68 80 / 60 60 70 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.