textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will be minimal during the upcoming week. Isolated showers are possible across South Mississippi Wednesday morning and North Mississippi Wednesday evening.

- Given the continued dry ground conditions, breezy and dry weather on Thursday will result in increased fire danger.

- Colder conditions will return late Thursday through this weekend. Frost or a light freeze is possible Friday night and Saturday night, with greater odds across northern and eastern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Through Wednesday: Generally quiet conditions are anticipated over the next couple days, with minor caveats. A Southern stream shortwave extending from Texas into the Deep South is yielding mid and high clouds across the area early this morning. As it shifts eastward overnight tonight, scattered sprinkles and light showers will be possible tomorrow morning, mainly across south MS. Because amounts are not expected to be measurable in most areas, we aren't currently advertising PoPs, however, low end chances may need to be added to the forecast if high res guidance trends wetter. Then, as a northern stream upper trough begins to deepen across the eastern part of the country tomorrow afternoon, it will send a cold front through the Mid South and into our area tomorrow night. Isolated showers are also possible ahead of this front, mainly across north and east MS. Again with this front, any rain amounts will be light, and development will struggle against dry air in the lower levels. Overall, most locations in our area will stay dry through this time frame, with temperatures continuing to trend milder.

Thursday through Monday: Dry weather conditions will continue in the wake of the cold front. The pressure gradient will increase Thursday, resulting in breezy conditions throughout much of the day. Given the ongoing drought conditions and anticipated low daytime humidity, the addition of wind gusts to the equation will increase fire danger potential on Thursday. This could carry over into Friday, but wind should be subsiding by then, and decreasing temps will become less favorable for fire growth. For now, we have opted to highlight a limited fire threat for Thursday to bring awareness to this.

Heading into the weekend, there remains solid potential for subfreezing temps Friday night and Saturday night over at least a portion of the area. As mentioned in previous discussions, our area will be on the western edge of the core of this colder airmass, meaning the chances for a freeze are higher in the Golden Triangle and lower in our CenLa and MissLou areas. As we get closer in time to the weekend, we will highlight the areas most likely to be impacted in HWO graphics.

Finally at the end of the forecast period, a secondary trough may bring rain showers late Sunday into Monday, but guidance is far from harmonious on this potential and chances are very low for the time being. /DL/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 455 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light wind. Light SHRA cannot be ruled out around HBG/PIB near daybreak Wednesday morning. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 78 52 79 53 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 78 47 78 51 / 0 10 10 0 Vicksburg 77 51 79 50 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 80 50 79 53 / 0 10 10 0 Natchez 78 54 79 54 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 74 53 77 51 / 0 10 10 0 Greenwood 74 50 76 48 / 0 0 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.