textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited threat (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding this afternoon into tonight and again Tuesday. - Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing heat stress a potential concern, especially into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through midweek (Wednesday): There is a stationary boundary that is the primary influence on our weather. The combination of daytime heating, frontal/moisture convergence and southwestward propagation of developing upper low will spark additional coverage (scattered to numerous in the 40 to 80 percent range) mainly along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. With deep moisture profiles (PWs in the 1.8 to 2.2 inch range), especially closer to the developing upper low in central to east-northeast MS, light to variable backbuilding vectors, some locally heavy downpours are possible again today.

We kept today's flash flood graphic about the same, just expanded it a bit west for this afternoon to late evening. Heavy downpours of 2 to 4 inches in a short period of time cannot be ruled out, which could lead to localized flash flood concerns. This front will be stationary or waffle in the region and combined with deep moisture (around 2.0 to 2.2 inches) and light flow, scattered to numerous rain and storms, with embedded locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out through midweek, and have now added a graphic for Tuesday to correspond with the WPC slight risk in the excessive rainfall outlook. While severe storms aren't forecast, some light westerly flow on the periphery of the westward migrating upper low could spark some more robust storms that could produce some gusty winds through Wednesday afternoon. This higher rain and storm coverage and clouds will keep seasonable warmth in check, with below normal highs, some 4F to 8F degrees below (85F to 91F) and seasonable lows (70F to 73F). /DC/

Thursday into next weekend: Ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances (isolated to scattered in the 20 to 40 percent range) across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the mid 90s next weekend. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period, some 3F to 6F above (73F to 76F). This pattern looks to bring back concerns for increasing heat stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast. Holding off introducing HWO heat graphics for now but will monitor if trends hold. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A mix of MVFR/IFR conditions prevail at TAF sites this afternoon, but expect mostly VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon into the evening hours. Showers/storms are possible this afternoon and this may bring periods of MVFR/IFR conditions at some sites. IFR/LIFR ceilings will be likely once again late tonight after 05-06Z./15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 86 71 88 / 60 70 40 40 Meridian 71 85 70 88 / 50 90 40 50 Vicksburg 72 88 71 88 / 40 60 20 40 Hattiesburg 72 86 71 90 / 30 60 30 30 Natchez 71 86 71 89 / 10 50 20 20 Greenville 72 88 71 88 / 40 60 40 70 Greenwood 71 88 71 88 / 50 90 40 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.