textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are possible again tonight, especially in portions of east to southeast Mississippi.

- There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor on Thursday.

- Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday afternoon into Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Tonight through early next week (Tuesday)...

Tonight through Friday: Southerly return flow will keep fog development on cards for the overnight period. 12Z HREF and REFS indicate good dense fog probs (40 to 60 percent) for areas that had fog issues early this morning. Based on continued stagnant and carbon copy of an environment, went ahead again with an HWO graphic for dense fog and thinking about potential for a Dense Fog Advisory in the southeast Pine Belt areas.

Weekend into early next week (Saturday through next Tuesday):

Mean ridging over the Gulf Coast into the southeast states will shunt an approaching front off to the northwest. A shortwave trough and front will drive some rain chances into the Highway 82 corridor into Tuesday, with the timing mainly in the afternoon to evening hours and low coverage (20 to 35 percent). Ridge will build back in the wake into Friday, with decent probability (30 to 60 percent) for high temperatures reaching 90 degrees.

Amplifying longwave pattern will commence with a deep synoptic trough and cold front driving down Friday night into early Saturday. The low pressure system at the surface and aloft will be well north, into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and Canada. However, this will drive the cold front into the area late Saturday evening into Sunday. There will be enough convergence and deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) to bring in decent rain and storm coverage (50 to 70 percent). This will bring good beneficial rains, but less than an inch, which will not make a huge dent in the ongoing drought concerns. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms but confidence in severe storms is on the low side.

Anomalous surface high around 1025mb will drive in much cooler and dry weather across the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Temps will be seasonably cool into late weekend and early next week (i.e. lows in the mid to upper 40s Sunday night into Monday, with highs generally in low to mid 70s through Tuesday). /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 15 kts with gusts up to 25kt through the afternoon. Winds will subside to 5 kts after 00Z Thursday. Another morning of dense fog will be possible between 10- 14Z Thursday across southern/southeastern sites, resulting in MVFR/IFR/LIFR conditions. As the dense fog dissipate, flight conditions will return to VFR throughout Thursday morning. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 86 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 61 86 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 62 87 62 88 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 64 87 64 88 / 0 10 0 0 Greenville 66 85 67 88 / 10 20 10 0 Greenwood 66 85 66 89 / 0 20 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM CDT Thursday for MSZ056>058- 063>066-072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.