textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet pattern will continue Friday through the extended period.

- Marginal risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather this afternoon.

- Heat Advice will be issues for southwest portions of the area today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 522 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Friday through next Thursday:

Friday through Sunday:

Overnight rainfall across portions of southern counties have prompted a few Flash Flood Warning/Emergency across portions of southern counties (Jeff Davis, Covington, and Jones Counties). Patchy fog will be possible in the pre-dawn hours this morning. Tropical moisture from the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur along with an approaching frontal boundary will continue to provide showers and thunderstorms over the course of Friday. Ahead of the showers/storms, temps/dewpoints will bring heat indices near 115 in the southwest portion of the area. A Heat Advisory with accompanied graphics will be issued. During the afternoon hours, a Marginal risk for severe weather is expected across the CWA. Damaging winds and isolated hail is expected within severe storms. Flooding will continue to be of concern, especially near the Pine Belt as storm traverse over areas that have received 3-4+ inches of rain so far. Wet pattern will continue into the weekend as a shortwave trough moves over the Lower MS River Valley and interact with the aforementioned frontal boundary through the weekend. CAM models suggest the formation of couple of MCSs near TX/AR that will head towards our area. With the previous rainfall, saturated soil, and storm training, flooding will remain a concern.

Monday through Thursday:

High pressure over AZ/NM and northern Mexico and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes/Ohio Region will set up the next chances for rain. Multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse over our CWA with additional rounds of wet weather for the duration of week. Chances for severe weather can't be ruled out, however, nothing has been outlooked at this time. /SW/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 712 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Remnant tropical moisture will lead to continued high SHRA chances across the region today, in addition keeping low ceilings and some areas of fog around today (mainly near GLH to GWO). Expect improvements to MVFR by mid-morning before lifting to VFR into the afternoon hours. Additional SHRA and TSRA activity/convective initiation will occur as early as 19/13-15Z, generally in central to southeast TAF sites and drift southward with time. SHRA and TSRA could bring lowered visibility and/or ceilings and resultant flight categorical reductions to IFR/LIFR at times. Expect light and variable winds through the end of the TAF period. SHRA and TSRA coverage will wind down into the evening, generally after 20/00-03Z Saturday. Additional lowered ceilings and/or visibility reductions after 20/08-10Z with some SHRA and TSRA redevelopment overnight as well. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 73 87 73 / 90 70 90 50 Meridian 86 72 85 72 / 80 60 80 40 Vicksburg 87 74 87 74 / 90 70 80 40 Hattiesburg 90 75 88 74 / 80 80 70 50 Natchez 91 75 89 75 / 70 70 70 50 Greenville 87 73 86 73 / 70 50 80 40 Greenwood 89 72 87 73 / 80 60 80 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ053-054-059>064-072-073.

LA...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ023>026.

AR...None.