textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions will increase across the forecast area Wednesday.

- Several disturbances will bring rain chances through the week ahead including the potential for isolated severe storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Today and Tonight...

Uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage and relatedly heat stress concerns continues today with cloud cover and showers likely through this morning complicating the forecast. It seems likely, though, that afternoon highs will creep into the 90s F across the area and coupled with continued seasonably humid conditions characterized by dewpoints in the middle 70s F, heat indices likely crack 100 F for most and approach 105 F for some. For this reason, a "Limited" threat area for dangerous heat continues to be advertised for mainly our northeast Louisiana parishes, southeast Arkansas counties, and portions of Mississippi west of I-55 and in the Pine Belt.

Wednesday into next week ...

Rain chances continue Wednesday into Friday associated with disturbances through the northwest flow aloft. The likelihood that these disturbances generates showers and a few rumbles of thunder versus some risk for strong to marginally severe storms will likely come down to timing. For now, it appears the most favorable window for these disturbances could come in the morning hours this morning and again Wednesday morning which would tend to limit the degree of destabilization we see each day. For that reason, local graphics will not advertise a severe weather threat with this update cycle. Should confidence improve indicating sufficient destabilization is likely, a small "Marginal" risk area could be introduced for Wednesday.

Looking beyond midweek, the stout upper ridge to our west will likely weaken but begin to translate eastward again along the Gulf Coast region. Upper heights locally then are likely to only marginally increase but with weaker flow aloft and the ridge more centered near the area, a relatively drier stretch is likely headed into the weekend/early next week. The high will likely continue it's eastward shift thereafter and rain chances should transition to focus on sea breeze development and air mass thunderstorms. /NF/86/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Isolated -SHRA wl come in vcty of the western TAF sites this aftn but VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 72 95 73 / 20 10 30 60 Meridian 94 73 95 73 / 10 10 40 50 Vicksburg 91 72 96 73 / 50 10 20 60 Hattiesburg 93 73 96 73 / 20 10 40 40 Natchez 93 73 97 74 / 50 0 20 50 Greenville 93 73 95 73 / 50 20 30 70 Greenwood 92 72 94 72 / 30 30 40 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.