textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms capable of producing tornadoes, some possibly strong, damaging winds and large hail, are likely this afternoon into tonight.

- Locally heavy rainfall and areas of flooding are likely, with further drought relief expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Rest of this Afternoon into Thursday...A threat for severe storms continues across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight. There have indeed been some adjustments to the respected threat areas across the forecast area based upon both surface and upper air observations through the course of the day, and the latest high-res model data. The primary adjustments to these threat areas have been a shift to the south for each. This is primarily due to a steadier southward push of the cold front and the cooler drier air associated with it settling into northern portions of the CWA, in addition to a good capping inversion remaining across the area. This cap will continue to be sampled with special KJAN RAOBS through late this afternoon and evening. As eluded to earlier, this cap, along with the abundance of cloud cover across the forecast area, could play a sizeable roll in hampering both coverage and intensity of convection across the area, along with where the best threat area for severe weather sets up.

From now through around 6 PM, storms that develop across the CWA will primarily have the potential of producing damaging winds to 70 mph and hail to the size of golf balls. This will especially be the case across areas currently residing in both the "Enhanced Risk" (Level 3 of 5) and the "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5) areas. Some convection developing in the wake of the front, namely across the Delta region and North Central Mississippi can't be ruled out. There, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms exists, with a low end threat for hail to the size of quarters and damaging wind gusts.

As we move into late afternoon and evening hours, an area of ascent will lift northeast across the region. The combination of the expected weakening cap, available instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and increasing overall wind shear and lengthening hodographs, the potential for severe storms increases further. During this time and to a greater extent, the threat for tornadoes increases across much of the area. This is particularly the case in both the "Enhanced Risk" and "Slight Risk" areas, with a strong tornado possible in and around the "Enhanced Risk" area.

In addition to the severe weather threat today, an "Elevated Threat" for flash flooding due to heavy rainfall and training of convection is likely given the increase in atmospheric moisture across the region, 2-2.25 inch precipitable H2O values. This will particularly be the case across portions of central, south, and east Mississippi. Here, rainfall amounts of 3-5 inches, and locally higher, will be possible in a short amount of time. Elsewhere across a good portion of the area, a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding exists with rainfall amounts ranging from 2-3 inches will be possible in a short amount of time.

Currently, the potential for severe weather looks to finally wrap up across the Pine Belt region between the hours of 1-3 AM Thursday. Some shower activity will linger there through late morning. Clouds will gradually break across the area from northwest to southeast through the afternoon, with slightly cooler drier conditions expected for Thursday into Thursday night. /19/

Friday through next Tuesday...Rain chances begin to shift southeast into late week. Synoptic and surface features will consist of cutoff low aloft near the International Border with frontal zone shifting southeast into the northern Gulf. This will keep some rain chances along the Natchez Trace through before daybreak Friday, with highest coverage into the Pine Belt to Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors but shifting northward into the Interstate 20 corridor through the day. As shortwave trough swings into the ArLaTex into the weekend, expect rain coverage to pick up Saturday and into Sunday (25 to 55 percent) ahead of another front.

Temperature forecast become more seasonable as return flow gradually shifts around into the weekend (highs in upper 70s Friday to low to mid 80s Saturday and Sunday to mid to upper 80s Sunday and lows in upper 50s to low 60s Friday night to low to mid 60s Saturday and Sunday night). As shortwave becomes absorbed in the developing trough and deepening axis over the region, this will help drive clearing front through the area and rain chances out likely by early to midday Monday of next week. High pressure and seasonably cool conditions will build in the wake. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Showers and storms are ongoing as a frontal boundary moves through the region, resulting in various flight conditions across sites. Some storms could reach severe limited this evening into the overnight hour. Winds will start southerly and gradually shift to the north as the period progresses.Rain/storm coverage will begin decreasing from the northwest after 06Z Thursday Flight conditions will remain at MVFR/IFR conditions due to low ceilings through the rest of the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 61 74 56 74 / 100 10 10 40 Meridian 62 75 54 74 / 90 20 0 30 Vicksburg 58 73 56 75 / 90 0 10 40 Hattiesburg 67 78 59 73 / 80 60 20 60 Natchez 61 75 59 74 / 100 10 30 70 Greenville 55 71 54 76 / 80 0 0 0 Greenwood 56 73 52 77 / 90 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.