textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather over Southeast Arkansas and north central Mississippi late Monday into Monday night.

- A more significant severe weather threat exists late Tuesday into Tuesday night, and additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 831 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

While additional showers or a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out overnight, no upstream MCS development is expected tonight, and the loss of daytime heating will limit the potential for local development. Have let the Marginal Risk graphic for today expire, with remaining advertised threats in place still for tomorrow and Tuesday. Short-term forecast elements were updated through the day tomorrow, with no significant changes. Expect increasingly breezy conditions especially across northeast LA, southeast AR, and the MS Delta areas. Will take a closer look at the gradient wind threat with tonight's next forecast issuance, but some sustained winds around 20 mph are possible in the Delta per latest guidance. Gusts of 25-35 mph possible during the daytime. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Late this afternoon through tonight: As was the case yesterday, this morning's mesoscale convective system thoroughly overturned the airmass in our area, and so the stable conditions kept us dry and storm-free. That may change some however as we go through the remainder of today into the evening hours. Low level warm/moist air advection has resumed over western/southern portions of our forecast area, and this could help to modify conditions enough to bring a few storms this evening per some high res guidance. So will keep a small portion of NE LA/SW MS in the marginal risk. Otherwise, the overall increasing warm advection pattern will maintain a some low chances for shower activity even as the capping increases aloft. /EC/

For Monday into Monday night: Indications continue to be that favorable ascent and an increasingly robust severe weather threat will be mainly to our north in mid MS Valley where the exit region of a powerful upper level jet will juxtapose a very unstable warm sector and support a favorable environment for all modes of severe weather, but some additional questions have popped up for our area. For at least the southeast two thirds of our area, the anticyclonic branch of the upper jet should help to enhance the capping inversion and help to keep deep convective potential mainly north of the Hwy 82 corridor as we go through late Mon into Monday evening. Where some additional question now exists is with the potential for convection to initiate farther south over eastern TX into nwrn LA in the perturbed subtropical stream as was the case with today's 12z GFS. We are keeping the marginal risk going for northern portions of our area, and will wait to see short term trends with how convection may evolve as nightfall and the intensifying nocturnal low level jet help to promote some southward propagation of storms.

Late Tuesday through Tuesday night: relatively speaking, this is still the time frame for our main severe weather concern during this forecast. Very favorable split upper level jet dynamics will combine with a west-east frontal zone and very steep lapse rates to set the stage for what "could" be an impressive severe weather set-up in portions of the Lower MS Valley region. As of now, this most favorable west-east zone looks to set up along/north of the I-20 corridor and will follow SPC day 4 outlook concerning this, but confidence is shaky regarding just what latitude it will set up, so folks with interests in this area should pay close attention to updates. It still appears timing wise that this will mainly be a late Tue to overnight event, possibly lingering into early Wed morning, and it should be mentioned that we will need to monitor for flash flooding potential given the potential for convective training with west/southwest low to mid level flow juxtaposed with the boundary.

Wed through Fri night: another wave or two will likely impact our area in association with the continued active subtropical stream, however, as is often the case this time of year, the mesoscale influences and degree of convective overturning will have lot to say with how quickly the airmass can recover for additional severe and flash flooding threats. Confidence is there quite low with forecast details. /EC/86/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 AM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

VFR conditions wl continue until after 09Z. After 09Z MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop cntrl and south with a low potential for LIFR conditions in the se around 12Z. Conditions will improve to VFR by 16Z along with a gusty south wind 18-24kts that wl continue through the aftn. The gusty wind wl subside after 00Z cntrl ans south but continue in the north through the end of the TAF period. Isolated -SHRA/TSRA wl be psbl during the afternoon but scattered -TSRA wl spread over the northern TAF sites this evening. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 87 67 83 / 40 50 60 60 Meridian 65 86 65 84 / 30 50 60 60 Vicksburg 69 88 67 83 / 40 40 50 60 Hattiesburg 66 89 67 88 / 10 20 20 30 Natchez 69 90 69 87 / 10 30 20 50 Greenville 69 85 68 78 / 70 60 90 50 Greenwood 68 86 67 79 / 70 60 90 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.