textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through Thursday due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances increase across the forecast area Friday night into this weekend.

- An additional chance for thunderstorms is expected heading into next Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Warm and dry weather conditions will persist into the day Friday, but a more active pattern this weekend into next week will bring back chances for showers and thunderstorms to our forecast area. A weak upper-level shortwave passing to our northwest today has generated light rain across western Arkansas and some cloud cover across the region, but the impact of the ridge over the southeast has maintained dry and mostly clear conditions across our CWA. Today's mid-70s high temps and near-50 low temps are near normal for late October.

An upper-level shortwave pivoting through a deep longwave trough over the western CONUS will eject into the Southern Plains Friday. Latest model guidance show a negatively-tilted shortwave with minimal surface reflection as the wave lifts from the Southern High Plains into the Midwest this weekend. It will be deep and slow enough that surface dewpoints near 65 degrees will advect northward into our forecast area in advance of the wave. While some of the rain chances Friday night into Saturday may be more of a top-down process driven by the mid-level dynamics, a moistening and warming boundary layer will gradually support more surface-based and elevated convection heading into Saturday and Sunday. GFS MLCAPE values approach 1000 J/kg across the far southern parts of our area which is a notable return of instability that has been lacking in recent weeks. Correspondingly, thunder chances and QPF values have increased along with POPs. Light rain could be ongoing early Saturday morning, with chances for heavier rain and thunderstorms increasing into the day Saturday. Across the CWA, there are now medium (50-60%) chances for rain during the Saturday and Saturday night periods. Trick-or-Treat plans should account for the possibility of rain or thunder in the area. The shortwave axis will be slow to depart, with 20-40% POPs lingering into early Sunday.

A brief rebound in shortwave ridging after the weekend system will lower rain chances until Tuesday, but can't rule out some rain in that time. The West Coast trough should break down over the weekend and the overall pattern become more progressive. A low pressure system deepening out of this trough is then expected to dig and spin over the Southern Plains early in the week. Timing and spacing of the features is uncertain for that kind of pattern this far out, but it will likely result in a stronger frontal system crossing the region. More robust guidance solutions support a cold front squall line scenario on Tuesday. Explicit instability values are low this far in advance, but greater moistening (dew points over 65) and flow resulting in better wind shear may bring a chance for more organized thunderstorm development or even severe weather to our area on Tuesday. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail with scattered high clouds and light easterly winds. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 48 82 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 45 79 45 81 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 51 84 50 85 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 46 83 45 84 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 53 84 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 50 83 52 84 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 49 83 48 84 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.