textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system crossing the forecast area this weekend will bring breezy winds Saturday and showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Through Tonight: continued warmer than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a nearly stationary cold front along the Gulf coast and a >1024mb high centered over the mid Mississippi valley. This high will shift east through the period as it builds into our CWA. This combined with the northwest flow aloft will help push the nearly stationary cold front farther south of our CWA. Satellite imagery showed some stratus associated with the cold front across our southern zones but no measurable precipitation is expected in our CWA. Although temperatures will be cooler today than on Wednesday in the wake of the front, warmer than normal temperatures will continue today and tonight. /22/

Friday-Sunday:

Another warm day expected Friday with highs ranging in the upper 60s to mid 70s across the region. Quiet conditions are expected before a another storm system traverse the region.

A progressive upper-level pattern will push a deepening trough with an embedded surface low and attendant cold front from the Southwest into the Mississippi Valley. As the cold front approaches, showers and storms are expected Saturday evening through Sunday. Ahead of the front, sufficient moisture and bulk shear will be in place which may promote some stronger storms. Primary severe weather threat remains off to the west of the CWA as the greatest instability is located there. Due to the uncertainty of how instability reaches the area, widespread severe weather isnt anticipated; however, some storms may reach severe limits.

Also watching for the potential for flash flooding around the MS Delta as moisture anomalies are well above normal (IVT/PW in the 90- 97.5 percentile). Currently the greatest rainfall amounts are expected over the MS Delta where training potential could bring localized higher rainfall totals near 2.5 to 3 inches. Elsewhere, 1- 2 inches is expected. Once the boundary leaves the area Sunday afternoon, temps are expected to slightly drop to near seasonal averages.

Monday-Wednesday:

Upper-lvl ridge will settle over the ArkLaMiss region, resulting in a quiet weather pattern to start the new week. High (upper 60s/70s)/low(40s & 50s) temps will run 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages through the period. /SW/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 544 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

IFR cigs at HEZ wl continue through 14Z before improving. After 15Z VFR conditions areawide will prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 69 49 74 55 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 68 44 71 50 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 70 50 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 50 76 53 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 73 54 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 45 69 55 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 67 45 71 53 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.