textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The combination of dry ground conditions, a dry airmass, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire danger conditions through today. - A light freeze is likely tonight and Saturday night mainly for portions of north and east Mississippi, but areas of frost are possible across much of the area.

- For the coming week, little rain is anticipated and many areas will remain dry.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 704 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Updated near-term forecast through tonight with the latest guidance. Only notable change was lowering dew points during peak mixing time frame today. Afternoon RH will fall to 25-30% at most locations, which is in line with existing fire danger messaging. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1244 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Rest of today through late next week (Thursday)...

Rest of today through Saturday: GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate mean trough off of OR and WA coastlines, mean ridge across the Plains and deep mean longwave trough over the Great Lakes to OH Valley. This is keeping northwesterly dry flow and ushering in much drier (PWs around half to quarter inch) and much colder air into the region. Surface analysis indicates 1028mb surface high centered over south-central Canada, with 1024mb high pressure isobars extending well southwestward into the central Plains to near the ArkLaTex to Gulf Coast region. Dry and cold weather will be the norm through the overnight hours as the northwesterly low-level trajectories keep cold conditions around. This will lead to a likely freeze overnight, with persistent blended freeze probs (40 to 70 percent as far south as Interstate 20 and greater than 70 to 90 percent along and east of Interstate 55 and north of Interstate 20). There are some probs that extend westward along the MS River corridor up into northeast LA and southeast AR. Based on that and some convective allowing models near 33F to 35F range, even if probs are a touch lower (25 to 40 percent), there is enough support of lows at or less than 35F to support freeze potential. Expanded inherited Freeze Warning westward along Interstate 20 to include portions of western MS along the MS River corridor, northeast LA and north into extreme southeast AR. Adjusted the HWO freeze graphic accordingly. Highs and lows will be seasonably cool in this regime, some 6F to 14F below (highs today and Saturday of 55F to 65F and lows tonight 28F to 34F north of Interstate 20 and 35F to 38F to the south and similar but more confined freeze area Saturday night into the northeast quadrant). In addition, the dry period and some gradient wind keep potential fire danger around today. Inherited HWO fire danger graphic remains on track.

Late weekend into late next week (Sunday-Thursday): As shortwave ridging builds in late weekend, a upper low will dive down out of the Plains into the ArkLaTex region. This will bring broad isentropic ascent and moist advection into the region, but PWs only climb to around an inch in the far southwest portion of the area. Majority of any rainfall observations will fall southwest of the area, but any we see will likely be light sprinkles. There should be more expectation of broad area of radar returns but more "virga" or evaporating rain rather than beneficial rainfall. Less than a tenth is most likely but if more efficient moist advection can occur, there could be a spot that may see up to that in northeast LA and extreme southwest MS but this is likely very generous. After this shortwave moves through, dry easterly low- level flow will setup underneath a sprawling 1030mb surface high over the Appalachians to eastern seaboard. This will keep quiet weather and lead to gradual thermo moderation. A switch will flip from seasonably cool highs Monday (4F to 8F below into 58F to 62F range) to seasonably warm around Wednesday to Thursday (4F to 8F above into 68F to 78F range). Additional patchy frost or very isolated light freeze cannot be ruled out both Sunday and Monday nights, but this will be past the growing season of November 15 so no additional headlines or HWO graphics will be needed. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the 18Z TAF cycle. Northerly winds will be less gusty, sustained around 10 mph and gusts around 20 mph, decreased into the evening after 13/22-23Z Friday and light and northeasterly after 14/15Z Saturday. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 34 60 36 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 31 58 32 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 34 60 36 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 34 61 34 64 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 37 61 39 63 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 33 56 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 30 56 32 59 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for MSZ018-019-025>052-056>058.

Freeze Warning from midnight Saturday night to 8 AM CST Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>039-041>046-048>052-056>058.

LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for LAZ007>009-015-016.

AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 8 AM CST Saturday for ARZ074-075.