textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and dry weather is likely into early week.

- Patchy frost and lows near freezing possible this morning and tonight across north-central and northeast Mississippi.

- After seasonable warmup this week, another round of cooler temperatures and potential patchy frost and lows near freezing possible again next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

This week into early next weekend (Saturday)...

Today: GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate cold core upper low over the northeast and an upper low over the Sierra Madres area of western Mexico. Colder air is situated across the area this morning. Temperatures have fallen into the upper 30s to low to mid 40s. High cirrus are situated across the area and will continue to spreading across the region. 1024-1025mb surface high will build in today, helping gradient winds to gradually relax and lighten. Seasonable highs are expected today (upper 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace of Interstate 20 while upper 60s to low 70s to the southeast). Seasonably cool lows are ongoing this morning and again tonight (33F to 43F this morning and again tonight). Patchy frost is possible this weekend as winds become calm tonight and effective radiational cooling remains likely. The dry soil conditions continue to support overachieving of the nocturnal cooling processes. At the same time, there remains potential for cirrus cloud decks to stubbornly stick around this weekend downstream of the SW US upper low, which could keep temperatures from dropping as much as they would in clear sky conditions. Putting these factors together yields uncertainty for low temperatures and potential frost impacts. Regardless, frost potential remains a concern, especially in low-lying and sheltered areas. Kept inherited Limited HWO graphic for patchy frost during these nights, mainly in north-central, east to northeast MS. Ensure plants are covered or indoors and take consideration of cold temperatures and impacts to pets and people with frost to light freeze potential.

This week into early next weekend: Quiet, cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist this work week. Moist, isentropic ascent and cloudy conditions will remain draped across the Gulf Coast states through at least mid-week (Wednesday). Isolated rain shower is possible around midweek, but probs remain isolated and low (less than 15 percent). Upper low is still projected to become open shortwave, with less prominent ascent as it propagates eastward. With some thermal temps aloft warming, highs will moderate to seasonably through mid week (69F to 78F Monday to 73F to 80F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonable. The synoptic pattern will feature a brief shortwave ridge passage early week before the eastern half of the country becomes dominated by deep layer troughing. With limited airmass recovery in the boundary layer likely under this suppressed regime, a drier and cooler pattern into late week continues to look likely. However, recent trends of stronger positive vorticity advection, moist ascent/convergence along a cold front lend support of light rain shower development late week around Thursday. Global model guidance is beginning to pick up on this in the last run or so, but rain less than a tenth of an inch north of Interstate 20. Unfortunately, this will make no dent in ongoing drought concerns. Another round of patchy frost or light freeze remains possible in the day 6-8 range. Blended guidance probs of a light freeze are a medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) for central east and north-northeast MS, while falling at 30 degrees or below are low to medium chance (20 to 50 percent). The growing season concerns will persist, so HWO graphics for frost/freeze are possible, with potential for heightened messaging. Will continue to monitor trends and hold off for now this far out. Winds generally will be light through much of the period but clear days with full sun and associated deep mixing with little rain in sight could result in increased wildfire danger by Friday. /DC/86/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with SCT to BKN high cirrus deck draped across the region through the 06Z TAF period. Steady north winds will persist through the day, under 10mph with gusts up to 15mph, before becoming light into the evening. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 41 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 69 36 73 39 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 67 40 71 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 71 38 74 41 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 67 43 72 46 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 66 39 70 45 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 38 70 41 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.