textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue this week.

- Low potential for storms this weekend.

- Colder air will arrive late this weekend and persist through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Through Thursday night:

Upper level ridging will persist this week along the Gulf Coast, and this will maintain a seasonably warm return flow pattern. While most guidance remain bullish on stratus development Thursday, there will still be enough sun and heating for daily record highs (lower 80s) to be threatened at least, especially over the southeast half of the area. Otherwise, a few light showers could develop in the moist boundary layer, but most locations will remain dry until a weak front begins to interact with the moisture later this week. Friday into the next week:

The primary feature of interest in the mid-range period continues to be the progress of a cold front likely on Saturday along the southern edge of influence of a shortwave trough moving eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley. While deep layer shear will remain seasonably stout, the better upper level dynamics remain well north of the area and little in the way of cyclogenesis near the frontal boundary appears likely. The net result is a possibly prolonged period of modest lift across a frontal zone characterized by very anomalously moist boundary level conditions on the southern side (Td >64F)juxtaposed with substantially drier and cooler air to the north (Td <50F). This could promote sufficient instability and deep layer shear for an isolated stronger storm or two, possibly including some longer lived storms that could briefly reach severe limits. With little in the way of low level shear with surface winds remaining light and generally veered, and the absence of meaningful deep layer lift, the most likely scenario appears to feature scattered bouts of thunderstorms moving west to east along and near the boundary with a more substantial severe weather threat unlikely. The relatively slow movement of the boundary could result in locally heavy rainfall from storms that are briefly training at times. Rainfall totals could locally exceed 2 inches in a short period of time and for that reason some isolated flooding potential can not be ruled out. For now, these threats appear too localized and uncertain to depict with hazard graphics but it is likely that a small area with some risk for a few isolated strong/severe storms and/or at risk for localized flash flooding will be identified later this week.

The associated cold front pushes out and ushers in drier, colder air by late weekend into early next week. There are increasing chances for sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area, including chances for getting below 28 F, particularly for areas north of I- 20. After the fairly warm stretch that we've had recently, this could pose some ag-related threats. Temperatures look to threaten or dip below freezing on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Despite the nippy mornings, afternoon highs will still breech 50 F for the vast majority of folks each day and the duration of temperatures below freezing will likely be 6 or less hours each night, helping to moderate some of those ag-related concerns. Dangerous cold is not expected as temperatures look increasingly unlikely to fall below 20 F nor do wind chills appear to dip below 10 F with the coldest nights mostly the result of light winds/radiational cooling within a dry airmass as opposed to strong cold air advection and associated gusty winds.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 749 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions to start the period will yield to a period of prevailing MVFR ceilings mainly from about 10Z-17Z Thursday. Winds from the south will begin to gust to around 20-24kts as cloud deck lifts and mixes to VFR again. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 61 80 61 79 / 0 0 50 30 Meridian 60 81 62 80 / 10 10 70 40 Vicksburg 61 79 59 78 / 10 10 50 30 Hattiesburg 63 83 66 83 / 10 10 60 50 Natchez 63 81 64 81 / 0 0 40 30 Greenville 61 74 54 70 / 0 10 20 20 Greenwood 62 77 56 75 / 10 10 50 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.