textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and heat stress potential will increase across much of the area through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Through Wednesday: An upper shortwave currently situated over the Mid South will shift eastward into the Tennessee Valley today. The trailing portion of this wave, extending across parts of North MS to near the AR/LA border, will serve as a focus for scattered convective development later today into early this evening. Further south, typical warm season isolated to scattered diurnal convection is expected. As we head into early next week, upper level ridging will begin to limit convection with afternoon showers and storms becoming more isolated.

With the building ridge, temps will trend upward again, with highs in the triple digits possible across the Delta region Monday through Wednesday. This airmass will remain seasonably humid, though we expect to see increasing daytime mixing as we head into next week with dewpoints dropping into the 60s during the afternoon hours over much of the area. Still with conditions being so warm, heat indices will approach critical thresholds as early as today across northwest MS/north LA/southeast AR and over much of the western half of the forecast area by tomorrow. For today, it is expected heat advisory criteria will only be met briefly in a few areas. However, advisories may be warranted later on for a portion of our area. We will continue to highlight the increasing heat stress concerns in graphical products.

Thursday through next Saturday: By mid week, low level flow will become increasingly easterly thanks to the orientation of the surface high, ushering in a relatively drier airmass. This airmass will still support hot days, but with dewpoints dropping into the 60s - perhaps even the 50s as times during daytime mixing - it could greatly alleviate heat stress danger through the end of the forecast period. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again late Friday into next Saturday, with returning potential for diurnal convection. /DL/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Earlier reduced flying conditions have improved already and VFR conditions are currently anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. Although aftn TSRA may come in vcty of the eastern TAF sites and briefly result in lower flight restrictions. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 94 73 95 73 / 30 10 20 0 Meridian 93 72 96 71 / 50 10 20 0 Vicksburg 95 73 95 73 / 10 10 20 0 Hattiesburg 92 72 94 72 / 20 10 20 0 Natchez 95 73 96 73 / 10 10 30 0 Greenville 96 74 98 73 / 30 20 10 0 Greenwood 95 72 97 71 / 40 20 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.