textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog remains a concern late tonight into early Tuesday, and again late Tuesday night into early Wednesday.

- This week will feature above normal temperatures along with generally dry weather.

- We will be monitoring this weekend for the next potential weather system to impact the area.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Fog concerns have increased for the overnight hours. Recent runs of the HRRR indicate lowered visibilities to quarter to half mile range into south, central to north-central MS late tonight. 00Z HREF and 18Z/00Z REFS dense fog probs (less than quarter to half mile) indicate areas along and east of Interstate 55 to Highway 82 corridor have the best probabilities (HREF: 30 to 40% and REFS 50 to 60%) of dense fog. Based on that, updated HWO graphic to Limited areawide for patchy dense fog and Elevated in south, central to north-central MS (along and east/south of a line from Franklin to Hinds to Yazoo to Holmes and east to Noxubee). Holding off on an advisory for now but will continue to monitor the trends and if these worsen, may be needed in subsequent forecast package. /DC/

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 608 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Rest of tonight...

Water vapor/RAP imagery indicate ridge building in from the west with stratus layer persistent across the area today. This is driven by surface ridge building through, keeping weak afternoon mixing and dry air locked in the northeast areas. Clouds are eroding but have been extremely slow to do so. Based on that, this could limit outer longwave radiation and cooling potential overnight. However, left blended guidance (NBM) in for lows as clouds will erode some and gradually redevelop overnight. HREF dense fog probs remain supportive, confined along and south of Interstate 20. Adjusted hourly trends, but overall forecast and hazard graphics remains on track. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Through Tuesday night: Stratus is finally beginning to erode, and much of it should be gone by the end of the afternoon, but with the boundary layer remaining humid after a day of only weak mixing, the stratus may reform and fog will be possible as well later tonight into early Tuesday. Advection fog may develop over southern portions of the area as southerly flow begins to pick up, and have introduced a limited dense fog threat in the HWO graphics accordingly. Depending on how much it clears out the remainder of today, we could see a more significant fog threat materialize, so this will be something to monitor for messaging updates. Fog/stratus will be slow to dissipate Tuesday, and another round of fog could develop late Tue night into early Wed in this persistent return flow pattern. /EC/

Mid/late week into the weekend: Weather will be quiet most of this week under reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80a and lows in the 50s and 60s. This is about +20 above seasonal norms. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week as we transition to a southwest flow regime. Guidance has trended towards a less amplified pattern, with instead subtle shortwaves embedded in SW flow. This should support a wetter pattern for late week. Nothing in particular stands out at the moment in terms of flood risk, especially given dry antecedent conditions, but would keep an eye out for heavy rain with anomalous moisture and persistent rainfall with disturbances moving along the stalled boundary and lack of airmass change. The wave for Saturday appears more amplified and pushes the surface front out and ushers in drier air. There are definitely some disagreements at this time regarding the evolution. There is increasing confidence that a more significant intrusion of continental polar air could bring freezing low temperatures by Sunday night. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

MVFR stratus continues to plague central to northwestern sections of the area, but there has been some erosion on the northeast side (drier air) and southwest side (favorable southerly trajectories and afternoon sun/mixing). Northern areas have been slow to counteract the southerly flow trajectories, which mitigate the continued southwest erosion of the northeast cloud deck. Maintained pessimistic forecast for stratus and dense fog overnight due to sufficient southerly return flow and high boundary layer moisture. Advection fog/stratus may be a concern overnight into Tuesday morning, as far north as Interstate 20. These conditions will improve around 17/15-17Z north of Interstate 20 and 17/18-20Z along I-20 and to the south. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 58 48 69 57 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 59 45 70 55 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 59 45 69 57 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 61 50 74 58 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 64 48 71 58 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 56 48 66 57 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 63 49 69 57 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.