textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight warming trend is expected into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Through tonight: Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed the circulation around a weak positively tilted upper level trough over our region with its axis just to our northwest. This upper level trough is progged to linger over the region through the period and may try to close off a low over the mid Mississippi river valley tonight. Although slightly drier air has knocked our PWATs down to around an inch and three quarters, daytime heating and the lower heights associated with the upper level trough will result in isolated to scattered coverage of convection again today. Models suggest that the convection may get and early start and limit daytime highs due to the rain cooled air but away from convection highs should reach into the lower 90s again. Highs in the lower 90s combined with the high humidity will result in peak heat indices in the lower 100Fs. The potential for severe storms today is expected to remain just west of our CWA but strong storms capable of gusty wind and small hail will be possible especially in our western most zones. /22/

Wednesday through next Tuesday...

Model guidance shows an upper level trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley Region as the subtropical ridge continues to weaken over the southeast CONUS. As this trough continues to hover over north MS, the shortwave energy in the westerlies will continue to be drawn southward into the weakening subtropical ridge. Because of this, scattered showers and storms will prevail across a good portion of the CWA for Wednesday. Areas along and west of I-55 will see low rain chances (15-30%) early Wednesday morning with areas west of the MS Rive, including portions of northeast LA, seeing slightly higher rain chances with PoPs around 40%. Looking ahead into Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday evening, the coverage for scattered showers and storms will increase across the area from west to east. A few strong to marginally isolated severe t-storms cannot be ruled. Rain chances will start to decrease in coverage by Wednesday night.

Regarding the heat threat, afternoon highs for Wednesday will peak peak in the low 90s. This combined with dewpoints peaking in the mid 70s, will cause heat indices to reach triple digits. Several areas across the Delta and south of I-20 could see heat index values reach 105 degrees. The scattered convection heading into Wednesday could have an affect on how high heat index readings could get. Will reassess heat trends during the morning forecast package this morning to see if a "Limited" heat graphic may be needed for Wednesday.

The subtropical ridge is still forecast by guidance to rebuild, and this should lessen convective rainfall coverage while allowing heat stress to intensify. Additional heat related graphics for limited/elevated heat threats may eventually become necessary. We'll continue to monitor any lower-end severe threats on a daily basis. Scattered showers and storms will increase across our forecast area on Sunday and again on Monday. Rain chances will decrease in coverage looking ahead into Tuesday. Tuesday evening will be relatively quiet across our CWA with a few lingering showers possible for a few areas along and south of Hwy 84 Tuesday evening. /CR/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 108 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Isolated TSRA at HKS-JAN-MEI will dissipate with the next hour or two. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl continue until 10Z when a brief period 10Z-13Z when MVFR conditions may develop cntrl and south. Isolated to scattered aftn TSRA may affect the TAF sites. Away from any TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 40 10 Meridian 92 73 91 73 / 30 10 30 10 Vicksburg 91 73 91 75 / 30 20 50 10 Hattiesburg 93 74 93 75 / 20 10 40 10 Natchez 92 73 92 75 / 30 20 40 10 Greenville 91 73 91 74 / 30 20 40 10 Greenwood 91 72 92 74 / 30 20 50 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.