textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the area as we go into early next week.

- There is an enhanced risk for severe weather, especially for damaging winds.

- Strong winds will also precede and follow the cold front mid morning through Monday afternoon. - Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant hard freeze threat to much of the area Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Updates today: Messaging for severe weather tonight remains on track. There has been a slight adjustment north for the enhanced risk, with focus mainly along and north of the I-20 corridor. The wind advisory has been expanded to include much of the rest of the area due to increased confidence for stronger winds. The significant freeze threat has been expanded to include the remaining area as guidance continues to trend colder for Monday night. In the wake of storms as the front is pushing through early Monday morning, cold air is outrunning the precip. There is an uptrend in CAM guidance for the potential for a very brief window of snow showers/flurries around dawn Monday morning, none of which are expected to be impactful.

In the near term: High pressure shifts east today ahead of a rapidly approaching strong cold front. Wind will begin to pick up from the south and bring an increase in boundary layer moisture. A stout upper trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the plains, and its aforementioned attendant surface cold front continues to be the focus for our next round of hazards.

Concerning the wind threat: Strong pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind threat both ahead of and in the wake of storms tonight. A wind advisory will be maintained for the Delta region, and expanded to include much of the rest of the area, with the exception of Marion, Lamar, and Forest counties, as confidence is lower there.

Concerning the severe threat: The strong forcing and shear, along with sufficient instability along/just ahead of the front, will support a forced squall line racing across the area Sunday night. The enhanced severe risk continues to be messaged, with the latest update highlighting areas mostly along and north of the I-20 corridor. The greater severe threat area looks to be over our northwest where the combination of instability/forcing will be greatest, and where updraft intensity and low level environment seem strong enough in the guidance for some tornado potential, particularly with any segments orthogonal to the low level shear vector, and with discrete cellular development ahead of the main line, which seems most probable in northwest portions of our area. Tornadoes and hail will be a concern, but the potential for areas of widespread damaging straight-line winds, is still the main concern.

Concerning the freeze threat: In the wake of the cold front, a polar surface high will usher in a much colder airmass, and will promote freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, and to a lesser extent, Wednesday morning. Areawide impacts are likely. Therefore have expanded the significant to include the rest of the area, while an extreme is highlighted in the northeast where hard freezing temperatures are expected and it could remain below freezing for 6-10 hours. Especially considering the recent record warmth, and with highs in the 80s also expected Sunday ahead of this freeze, impacts to unprotected vegetation are expected. And, with more low temperatures now forecast to fall into the low to mid 20s Tue morning, there will also be a significant threat to early season fruit crops. We may eventually need messaging for Tue night when the surface high will be in a more ideal position, but impacts should be less then with the thermal trough beginning to shift out of our region.

In addition, it is worth noting that confidence has increased in a very short window (1 to 2 hours) for snow showers/flurries on the back end of the front, indicative of colder air outrunning precip. Any showers that do occur are not expected to be impactful and will be brief, but will be a cool phenomenon in the wake of severe weather in mid March.

Thereafter, a significant warm-up is expected for mid to late next week with building heights over the region. Highs will rise back above seasonal norms with readings in the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday. A strong midlevel high over the desert southwest will keep northerly flow over our area which will maintain warm and dry conditions. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the region early this morning. There is a slight chance (10-20%) of IFR/LIFR fog and low clouds around HBG/PIB early this morning through shortly after daybreak. Then, VFR conditions will return areawide through the daytime as southerly winds become very gusty, with some gusts in the 30-40 kt range possible. A line of SHRA and scattered TS will push across the area between 00z and 08z with wind gusts over 50kt and tornadoes possible. Along and behind this line, winds will shift to NW and remain gusty into Sunday night. Brief categorical visibility reductions in +RA and MVFR ceilings are possible along and behind this line. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 83 37 48 27 / 10 90 20 0 Meridian 81 37 49 26 / 10 90 10 0 Vicksburg 83 38 49 27 / 20 90 10 0 Hattiesburg 84 42 54 29 / 10 90 30 0 Natchez 83 39 51 28 / 10 90 20 0 Greenville 80 35 45 27 / 60 80 0 0 Greenwood 82 36 46 24 / 40 90 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040-041.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to noon CDT Monday for MSZ026>033-036>039-042>066.

LA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.