textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures continue this afternoon, but lower humidity will help to reduce heat stress, with dangerous levels of heat stress confined to north of Interstate 20.

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will build back in areawide this weekend through early next week before a front with drier air, lower dewpoints and pleasant temperatures/less heat into late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Through Saturday: Record high temperatures along with higher humidity and dry weather is expected. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a large 596dam high centered over the ArkLaTex region. This large high will remain in place and weaken some through Saturday. This will allow moisture topping the high to spill over across northern Mississippi and to our east. The drier air from the east that has helped hold humidity down the past few days will shift west of our CWA as moisture increases from the northeast Saturday. This increase in moisture will combine with record high temperatures that will result in peak heat index values between 105-1108F in our northeast and east Mississippi counties with lower heat index values approaching 105F elsewhere. The increase in moisture will lead to some convection just to our northeast but no measurable precipitation is anticipated in our CWA. /22/

The anomalous ridge will continue to promote hot and dry conditions into early next week. The streak of potentially record breaking high temperatures, especially north of I-20 will continue at least through Monday, possibly Tuesday. Elevated heat stress continues to be advertised west of I-55 for early next week. Rain will remain scarce, but a few popup showers cannot be ruled out, mostly east of I-55.

By the middle of next week, a digging trough to the north and an upper low over Florida work in tandem to break the ridge down, relieving heat stress. This also means there will be a low chance for a few rain showers with our area situated beneath the base/through axis of an deepening upper low to the north. Even so, temperatures are likely to remain above average. Towards late next week, there is a bit of divergence in guidance with 2 scenarios. One scenario is the aforementioned trough digs enough to push a trailing frontal boundary into the area, which leads to less hot conditions. The other, reinforces ridging, stalling the frontal boundary just north of the area. This would probably mean slightly warmer temperatures. Guidance will likely converge and come into agreement as we get closer. /SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 98 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 72 100 72 98 / 0 0 10 10 Vicksburg 71 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 70 98 73 97 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 70 98 73 98 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 74 100 75 100 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 73 100 73 100 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ029>033-038- 039-045-046-051-052.

LA...None. AR...None.