textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week.

- Chances for afternoon storms will increase, and the risk for dangerous heat will decrease late this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An especially intense subtropical ridge axis will maintain it's position over our region through mid week. A hot low level thermal ridge axis (e.g., H850 T up to 24 deg C) will support high temperatures approaching 104 deg F in the ArkLaMiss Delta region, and the 100 to 103 deg F range elsewhere. A few record high temperatures will likely be broken, and heat indices will be hot enough to meet extreme heat warning criteria in spite of greater mixing. Have maintained the elevated to significant heat graphics for today through Wednesday and maintained an extreme heat warning for most of the area today, with the expectation that additional advisories/warnings will be needed. Additional heat related messaging will likely be needed beyond Wednesday.

Later this week and into the weekend, there continue to be indications that strong westerlies will increase over the northeast CONUS. Global models have trended more aggressive with their solutions of suppressing and weakening the ridge, and thus allowing for greater convective rainfall chances in our area. In addition, with the increased mid level flow and lapse rates being forecast, this could be a time to monitor for marginal to slight organized severe weather threats, especially per recent NCAR AI- NWP guidance in the Wed-Fri time frame. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through the TAF period with light and variable southwesterly winds. Some light scattered -SHRA/-TSRA cannot be ruled out in the Pine Belt later this afternoon (after 17/20Z), but confidence is still too low to introduce in the 12Z TAF cycle. VFR conditions will continue prevail across all TAF sites through Monday evening. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 100 78 101 77 / 10 0 10 10 Meridian 100 77 100 75 / 30 10 10 10 Vicksburg 99 78 100 78 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 100 78 101 78 / 20 20 30 20 Natchez 100 77 101 78 / 0 0 20 10 Greenville 103 78 101 78 / 10 10 20 0 Greenwood 101 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007-015-023-024.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009- 016-025-026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.