textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remain possible through this afternoon. - Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

- Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for northwest portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 AM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Today through tonight...

Surface low and frontal system continues to swing eastward with the strongest forcing remaining well off to the north into the Ozarks to Mid MS to OH Valleys. Forcing from a secondary spoke of energy over central TX, low level jet, and frontal convergence resulted in rain and storm coverage into the morning hours. The severe thunderstorm potential will continue through 8AM as a QLCS propagates from southwest to northeast across the area. There could also be discrete supercell development potential a touch earlier ahead of the forced squall line, which could have all modes of severe weather possible in these severe storms. The ongoing QLCS will be the main focus, with the best severe potential persisting through 8AM to the southeast. Increasing confidence of heavy rainfall, as training convection has set up along and north of a line near Bastrop to Grenada producing rainfall estimates between 2-4 inches so far. Some areas could see an additional 1-3 inches, with locally higher amounts, in a short duration through 7AM. No adjustments were made to the hazard graphic for flash flooding. In addition, surface low won't be really deep but there will be some pressure gradient (4mb) for some gusty gradient winds, at most around 25mph gusts or a touch higher at times.

There will be a brief break in activity, before more veered flow but frontal convergence could get some strong to isolated severe activity going again. Strong mean southwesterly shear will set up but remain mostly line-parallel. Strong moist advection will drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse rates, favorable thermodynamics, severe threat and advertisement in HWO of Slight/Marginal risk remains warranted. No adjustments were made to today's severe graphic as all modes of severe weather remains possible. Timing still looks to be 9AM to 5PM, but ending as early as 3PM in east MS.

Seasonably warm conditions continues with highs some 10F to 15F above (72F to 82F) and low temps ranging from 45F in the Delta to 55 in the southeast. /DC/CR/

********No adjustments were made to the extended period********

Wednesday through next week Monday...

Rain chances will continue across our forecast area through around daybreak Wednesday before a strong frontal passage brings a pattern change. Quiet and seasonably cooler weather conditions, 5-8F below, will occur across the southeast region late this week on Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday) thanks to mean northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1032mb sfc high propagating southeastward across the area, and PW less than half inch. Model consensus from both the GFS and the Euro are still showing Wednesday night through Thursday night being the coldest periods with nighttime temperatures in the low to mid 30s. A couple of areas along and east of i-20 could see overnight lows drop to below freezing Thursday night, with a light frost/freeze possible by late Thursday night/early Friday morning timeframe. Quiet conditions will continue through Friday evening as the 1032 sfc high begins to propagate eastward towards the Carolinas.

Looking ahead into the weekend, future guidance is still highlighting quite an active weather pattern developing over much of the central CONUS. A major longwave trough axis is forecasted to set over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up over the East Coast. This will help place our CWA in favorable deep southwest flow aloft for multiple rounds of showers and storms. At the moment, global models are still showing increasing potential for heavy rainfall to develop, with greater potential over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several days. /CR/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Local radars showed an area TSRA over the nw half of the area. The TSRA will become widespread resulting in deteriorating conditions from the remainder of the area through 14Z. Conditions will gradually improve from the west Tuesday as the cold front moves east of the area. VFR conditions are expected areawide by 23Z and VFR conditions will prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 50 61 36 / 60 0 0 0 Meridian 78 50 63 34 / 80 20 0 0 Vicksburg 76 49 60 36 / 40 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 82 55 69 37 / 70 30 0 0 Natchez 78 51 63 37 / 50 0 0 0 Greenville 71 47 55 36 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 74 47 56 34 / 40 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.