textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- We are monitoring for heavy rainfall threat associated with a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly west of I-55.

- The aforementioned front could also carry a low end severe threat, primarily for damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The pattern remains active over the next few days with persistent longwave troughing over the region and several shortwaves and strong jet energy. Intermittent low rain chances will stick around throughout the week, but the greatest chances concern a system anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Lingering showers in the near term will diminish as a shortwave ridge works its way across our region tonight and Monday. But the drier weather will be short-lived as the next system takes shape Monday night. A shortwave trough will dig from over the Pacific NW and phase with subtropical jet energy to aid in the lee cyclogenesis off the Rockies. The corresponding surface low will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the great plains. This should create increasingly breezy conditions from later Monday into Tuesday as the pressure gradient tightens. Increasing moisture return and ascent will lead to storms developing along the front west over Oklahoma and Texas, and these will push into our Tues aftn/evening as the front approaches. The convection will become more organized into a linear convective system that should move across our forecast area Tue night.

With that said, lightning probabilities continue to suggest weakening of the system with eastward extent, which makes sense as low level forcing and instability weaken. The airmass will be characterized by a deep warm cloud depth and anomalous deep layer moisture, so expect another high-precip efficiency environment to be in place. There are differences between this upcoming event and what we just experienced. The potential to see rainfall that is more widespread is greater given the uniform, progressive lift, and this should keep amounts from becoming overly significant. Locally heavy rainfall could still yield localized FF issues and will keep our current messaging of a limited flood threat going.

There is a low end chance (marginal risk) for severe weather as well with this system over western portions of the forecast area. Linear storm mode and modest instability suggest primarily an isolated damaging wind gust risk, and the REFS guidance along with other near term high res guidance suggest the risk will be more confined to northwest portions of the forecast area, right along/west of the MS River.

Due to the secondary low development into Wednesday, moisture wrap around lingers, so low (15-20%) rain chances continue through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts to generally under a tenth of an inch. The jet remains active and persistent moist trajectories may keep isolated rain chances around to end the week into next weekend. We could see substantially cooler temperatures by next Sunday as global ensembles show good agreement for significant central/eastern CONUS troughing. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1122 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An abundance of stratus over the region and scattered showers will continue to promote a mix of VFR, MVFR, and IFR flight categories at area TAF sites during this 18Z forecast period. Winds this afternoon will be from the southeast around 10 knots, but they'll subside a bit to around 5 knots this evening. Winds will remain southeasterly Monday, but they'll again increase through late morning to around 10 knots, with some higher gusts at times. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 80 65 82 / 10 0 0 50 Meridian 58 78 62 79 / 10 0 0 10 Vicksburg 62 81 64 82 / 20 10 10 90 Hattiesburg 62 81 63 82 / 10 10 10 40 Natchez 64 81 67 83 / 20 20 10 80 Greenville 62 78 65 79 / 30 10 10 90 Greenwood 59 77 63 80 / 20 0 0 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.