textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather this afternoon and evening.

- Much needed rain should fall across the entire area. - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather resumes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Today into tonight: There has been a trend towards more of the diurnally driven mode ahead of the front in terms of "peak" storm intensity. Storms should initiate near ne LA/southwest/south central MS and propagate into central MS during the afternoon to evening time frame where peak heating and pre-frontal sfc-based instability should coincide. Weak deep layer shear around 25kts and lackluster forcing, suggest a warm season like regime. Surface dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70, along with the 25kts of shear may be sufficient for marginal organization and would support a brief downburst or isolated damaging wind gusts. As the shear vectors are more favorably aligned relative to storm motion of afternoon diurnal mode, thinking is this may be the main threat of the event.

The front is expected to push through later in the evening into the overnight hours. There will be convection along the front as well during the afternoon into the evening. As the front sags southeastward, the cold pool will likely outrun and begin to overwhelm storms both along and ahead of the front. With waning instability and likely overworking of the prefrontal environment, severe threat should quickly diminish as activity moves southeast. CAM guidance suggests intensity of activity beginning to wind down shortly after sunset.

Additionally, deep layer moisture could be sufficient to support isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

Sunday through mid week: There may be some lingering shower activity early Sunday morning as the front is slow to clear the area. In the wake, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday, then steadily warm thereafter. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week. A weak shortwave Wednesday into Thursday could bring a brief shower in southwestern portions of the area, but most of the area should remain dry. Somewhat better rain chances return west of I-55 and the River as deep southerly flow reestablishes next weekend, but the pattern looks to remain largely ridge dominant./SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

LIFR cigs were being observed in the south while MVFR/IFR cigs were being observed elsewhere. These lower cigs wl prevail through 15Z before improving to VFR after 16Z. A gusty south wind 16-20kts wl develop by 16Z and continue ahead of a cold front that will bring widespread SHRA/TSRA and a wind shift to the nw starting this aftn and continuing this evening. The cold front is expected to move in vcty of GLH by 21Z and be near PIB-HBG by 07Z. The -RA after fropa wl gradually taper off from the northwest but cigs wl lower back to IFR/LIFR by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 82 55 69 48 / 80 90 30 0 Meridian 86 56 70 48 / 60 90 50 0 Vicksburg 84 53 69 48 / 90 90 10 0 Hattiesburg 86 63 73 51 / 60 80 70 10 Natchez 84 55 70 50 / 90 90 30 0 Greenville 82 52 67 47 / 90 80 0 0 Greenwood 84 53 69 47 / 90 90 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.