textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe storms possible in the northwest Delta late tonight.

- Severe storms capable of producing damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes, are expected Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Some tornadoes could be strong.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, with further drought relief expected.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 913 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Convection over northern AR has been slow to organize so far this evening. Even if things do get going in the near term, this activity is still quite a distance from our area. CAM guidance continues to show any storms that do develop not reaching our area until after midnight and mostly remaining to our north, though there is still marginal potential for a storm to clip our far northern ArkLaMiss Delta areas. Elsewhere, low clouds will increase overnight within steady southerly flow with WAA showers possible. No changes are planned for the near term forecast at this time. /DL/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Tonight through next Monday...The most impactful weather to affect the forecast area through this forecast period, will again be the threat for severe storms across much of the area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. However before that, an isolated severe storm can't be ruled out across far northwest portions of the Delta region after midnight tonight towards day break Wednesday, as a cold front sinks southeast toward that area. High-res models are currently in agreement with the bulk of severe activity remaining north of the CWA during this time. However, given the approaching front, increased instability there, steep mid-level lapse rates, & adequate deep-layer wind shear, an isolated severe storm could indeed wander into the far northwest Delta region overnight tonight. Therefore, a "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) for isolated severe storms remains across the northwest Delta region overnight. Damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters will be possible with the most intense storms.

The threat for severe weather will then become more widespread across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday morning, as severe weather risks remain across the the CWA. As the front continues its slow southeast progression through the CWA Wednesday, it'll move into an area where MLCAPE values will hover in the 1500-3000 J/kg range Wednesday afternoon and evening. This, along with increasing wind shear (0-6 km values 50-65 knots & 0-3 km values 30-40 knots), steepening mid-level lapse rates (6.5-8 C/km) and vertical totals of 26-28C will all combine to bring about this threat of severe storms during this time.

Models do indicate that a capping inversion will be in place across the area through a good portion of the daytime hours Wednesday. But scattered showers, and possibly a few storms, are expected to still develop beneath this cap. However come late afternoon into the evening, this cap erodes and more intense convection is progged to develop across portions of the forecast area in the warm sector ahead of the front.

Splitting cell/multi-cell storms are expected. Increased curved hodographs in data indicate shear profiles that are a bit more favorable for supercells (0-3 storm relative helicity values between 250-350 m2/s2), especially Wednesday evening when a low level jet develops and overall wind shear increases. This has likewise again increased probabilities for tornadoes over portions of the area. As a result, an "Enhanced Risk" (Level 3 of 5) now exists across the area from mainly Northeast Louisiana, Central Mississippi, into Northeast Mississippi. Damaging winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls, and tornadoes (some possibly strong) will be the threats in this "Enhanced Risk" area. Across much of the remainder of the forecast area, a "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms exists. Locations in this area will have the potential to see storms that can produce damaging winds to 70 mph, hail to the size of golf balls, and tornadoes. Finally across Southeast Mississippi early Thursday morning, instability will wane some during this time. However, some wind shear will persist along with some steep mid- level lapse rates. Although the front will be moving into an area where higher heights from the strengthening ridge over the gulf exists, a "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms will also be possible across the Pine Belt region early Thursday. Damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters will be possible, but a tornado cannot be ruled out.

To reiterate, currently severe storms that can develop along the front during the early to mid afternoon hours Wednesday will pose more of a threat of damaging winds and large hail up the size of golf balls. That said, the best potential for severe storms, along with the best potential for tornadoes, currently looks to mainly be between 4 PM Wednesday and 1 AM Thursday as both wind fields and shear will be at their best. Convection developing in the wake of the front is also possible. This will result in more of a hail threat.

In addition to the severe storm threat, with precipitable H2O values hovering between 2-2.25 inches, some concern for short-duration heavy rainfall and possible training of convection may yield some limited potential for localized flash flooding. Although we still have drought conditions across much of the area, rainfall totals measuring 2-4 inches in a short amount of time, could result in some localized flooding. This "Limited Threat" for flooding will be added to this afternoon's suite of HWO graphics.

Rain chances will linger in the wake of the front on Thursday as the main trough swings east through the region. Through the remainder of the forecast period, Friday through Monday, some chances for rain will continue across mainly southern portions of the forecast area. This is due to the combination a the frontal boundary stalling along the north central gulf coast and a shortwave traversing the Lower Mississippi River Valley through the course of the weekend and again dragging a cold front through the region. /19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail across most of the area, though cloud bases have been generally increasing and lowering. MVFR conditions are expected areawide by later this evening and persisting through the daytime Wednesday, with some areas as low as IFR by daybreak. Isolated to scattered SHRA will be possible through tonight, with some TS possible in northwest MS. Showers and storms will become more numerous late Wed afternoon into Wed evening with some severe storms possible. Ceiling reductions will persist at most sites through the end of the TAF period with increasing potential for visibility reductions in heavy rain. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 69 81 64 73 / 0 80 90 50 Meridian 65 82 64 76 / 0 70 90 70 Vicksburg 70 83 61 71 / 10 90 100 40 Hattiesburg 65 84 68 79 / 0 60 70 80 Natchez 69 85 64 73 / 0 80 90 50 Greenville 66 74 56 69 / 40 90 90 20 Greenwood 68 77 58 71 / 40 90 90 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.