textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Very chilly through tonight, then a warm-up will bring much milder temperatures Wednesday into Thursday.

- Some stronger to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out ahead of a cold front passing through Thursday late afternoon into night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

This week...

Tonight: Early morning analysis indicate 1030mb surface high centered across the Gulf Coast states stretched eastward into the Atlantic seaboard to Carolinas. With gradient/surface winds relaxed tonight under the surface ridge, cold anomalies and a hard freeze is expected (22F to 28F). With light winds and increased low-level humidity, frost is likely by daybreak. Bundle up and ensure to plan extra time to warm up for your morning commute.

Early week into early next week (Tuesday-Sunday): As mean shortwave ridging build through into mid-week, this will lead to warming return flow and moderation. Synoptic flow will gradually shift westerly in advance of an elongated trough lagging across the Ozarks, Red River Valley and stronger spoke of vorticity diving into the Sierra Madres. There still remains an opportunity for light rain around mid week on Wednesday. More numerous to widespread coverage of rain and storms is expected Thursday through early Friday. As a stout upper synoptic trough/cold core swing into the northern Plains into Great Lakes, 985-990mb surface low will drive a front into the ArkLaMS to Gulf Coast area. Upper ascent/favorable jet dynamics (right entrance region) will favor increased rain and storm coverage. Marginally severe storm potential (less than 15 percent probs) is on the table late Thursday afternoon into night, with juxtaposition of sufficient mean deep layer shear (35 to 45kts) and subtle mid-level lapse rates (vertical totals 23C to 26C) for marginally severe convection. CSU machine learning probs and CIPS analogs are in agreement. Main failure mode is more subtle height falls to rises south of Interstate 20 while more sufficient height falls northwest of the Natchez Trace into the Delta. Winds also look more veering into the afternoon, but a 35-45kt low-level jet could support some marginally severe organized storms. If trends persist, may need to advertise it in the HWO. Frontal passage is anticipated on Friday, with 1025mb surface high moving through. Sensible temperatures on Thursday will be seasonably warm, some 10F to 16F above (64F to 76F) before more seasonable Friday in the wake of the front. Predominately zonal flow will be established into the weekend, with more stout longwave trough axis in the Great Lakes. Gradient winds should increase on the western periphery of the surface high into late weekend, with a weak stationary boundary and some warm advection showers/light rain chances around into early next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR flight conditions with light winds will prevail through the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 57 41 63 53 / 0 10 20 10 Meridian 56 36 62 49 / 0 0 10 20 Vicksburg 56 42 63 52 / 0 20 20 10 Hattiesburg 61 41 66 53 / 0 0 20 30 Natchez 58 43 66 54 / 0 10 20 10 Greenville 51 40 58 51 / 0 30 20 20 Greenwood 54 41 60 51 / 0 20 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.