textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and dry weather is likely weekend into early next week.

- Patchy frost and lows near freezing possible this weekend in north-central into northeast Mississippi.

- After seasonable warmup this week, another round of cooler temperatures and potential patchy frost and lows near freezing possible again into next weekend.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 630 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Updated near-term forecast through tomorrow afternoon with the latest guidance. Made an adjustment to blend in more raw model guidance with tonights min temps, as steady low-level flow and a passing mid-level shortwave trough will make radiational cooling difficult. A solid low stratus deck north of our CWA may even edge into areas which NBM guidance suggest should cool most easily. Bias correction appears to be incorrectly lowering temps in areas of the US Highway 82 corridor. The resulting adjustment keeps tonight's lows close to 40 degrees even in the typically cooler areas. Tomorrow night has stronger signals for good radiational cooling and potential frost in parts of the CWA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Through next week (Friday)...

This weekend: GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate cold core upper low over Lake Erie and trough axis down into the OH Valley into Appalachians and an upper low over the Baja California into Desert Southwest. At the surface, reinforcing cold front has moved to the southeast of the area. Cooler and drier air will dominate this pattern. Increased isentropic ascent and cirrus are spreading into the area this morning, with mid to high level cloudiness persisting through the weekend. 1025mb surface high will build in late weekend into the Mid South, bringing much cooler temperatures today and Sunday (upper 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace of Interstate 20 while upper 60s to low 70s to the southeast while low to mid 70s Sunday). Seasonable lows are expected this morning while seasonably cool this weekend (40F to 52F this morning and 33F to 43F Saturday and Sunday nights). Patchy frost remains a concern this weekend. There will be some gradient wind this morning and again Saturday night, but become calm Sunday night. The dry soil conditions will support overachieving of the nocturnal cooling processes. At the same time, we'll have to consider the potential for cirrus cloud decks, which could keep temperatures from dropping as much. Putting these factors together yields uncertainty for low temperatures and potential frost impacts. Regardless, frost potential remains a concern, especially in low- lying and sheltered areas. Ensure plants are covered or indoors and consideration for pets and people cold temperatures with frost to light freeze potential persists. Kept inherited Limited HWO graphic with minimal adjustments for patchy frost during these nights, mainly in north- central, east to northeast MS.

Early to mid next week: Quiet, cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist into the following week. Moist, isentropic ascent and cloudy conditions will remain draped across the Gulf Coast states through at least mid week (Wednesday). Isolated rain shower is possible around midweek, but probs remain isolated and low (less than 15 percent). Upper low is still projected to become open shortwave, ascent will be less prominent as it propagates eastward. With some thermal temps warming, highs will moderate to seasonably through mid week (69F to 78F Monday to 73F to 80F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonable. The synoptic pattern has come a little more in line than yesterday for late week: deep synoptic trough with main discrepancies on western longitude of spokes of energy ejecting southeast out of the Plains from the GFS while the Euro shows mean trough axis diving east of the Plains through the MS River Valley. Cluster analysis indicates low to medium percentage of members (20 to 40 percent) from the ECENS and GEFS. This continues to favor clusters/pattern closer to the operational Euro, GEFS and AI (global model suite and ensemble). Recent GFS has begun to trend this direction. This favors a drier and cooler pattern into late week into next weekend and another round of patchy frost or light freeze. The synoptic setup and temperatures remain a potential target of opportunity. Will have to monitor the synoptic setup for increased wildfire danger as gradient winds could increase in a well-mixed dry boundary layer by Friday. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1103 PM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail at the TAF sites through the period, with north winds generally 5-10 kts. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 39 69 40 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 66 37 69 35 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 67 39 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 71 39 72 38 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 70 42 68 43 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 38 66 38 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 62 36 66 36 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.