textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into early next week, with patchy frost and lows near freezing possible this weekend in north-central into northeast Mississippi.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 529 PM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Updated near-term weather elements through the day tomorrow with latest guidance, but no significant changes were needed. REFS fog probabilities for tonight are highest to the west of the Delta bluffs, but some patchy fog could develop elsewhere with calm winds. A "Limited" threat for patchy fog remains in place for areas north and west of the Natchez Trace through Friday morning. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Through mid to late next week (Thursday)...

This morning into this weekend: GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate cold core upper low over the Great Lakes and lagging trough axis to the southwest and another over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front is situated to northwest in the ArkLaTex into Mid South with strong 1025mb high pressure in the northern Plains. This pattern will continue to filter in cooler, drier air in the wake. Highs will continue to be seasonably warm today (68F to 80F today), with much more seasonable and cooler lows (38F to 52F). REFS dense fog probs remain northwest of the Natchez Trace Parkway. Some areas there is crossover temps very favorable for fog (5F to 10F). Based on that, inherited Limited HWO graphic for dense fog seems on track.

As the upper trough swings east today, with subtle shortwave ridging move in this weekend. This will be in advance of an upper low over Baja California into west-central Mexico, with increased isentropic ascent and clouds into the weekend. 1020-1025mb surface high will build in late weekend into the Mid South, bringing much cooler temperatures both Saturday and Sunday (low to upper 60s north of Interstate 20, while upper 60s to low 70s to the south of Interstate 20). Seasonably cool lows, some 5F to 12F below, will be the norm (38F to 50F Friday night and 33F to 42F Saturday and Sunday nights). Patchy frost remains a concern across the region Saturday and Sunday nights. There will be some gradient wind this weekend into early next week, but remain light enough to support some frost potential, especially in low-lying and sheltered areas. Ensure plants, pets, and people are considered with more routine lows nearing frost to light freeze potential. Kept inherited Limited HWO graphic for patchy frost during these nights, mainly in north-central, east to northeast MS.

Early to mid next week: Quiet, cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist into the following week. Eastward ejection of upper low is slower than yesterday morning, with the center over west TX. This will keep moist, isentropic ascent and cloudy conditions draped across the Gulf Coast states through at least mid week (Wednesday). Cannot rule out an isolated rain shower during this time but with upper low filling in and becoming more open wave, ascent will be less as it propagates eastward. With some thermal temps warming, highs will moderate from seasonable early week to seasonably warm mid week (68F to 76F Monday to 70F to 78F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonably cool but gradually less cold. The synoptic pattern becomes less confident in late week: synoptic amplitude becomes less confident in western zone of jet energy across the Plains from the GFS while the Euro shows more deep mean troughing for areas east of the Plains. Cluster analysis indicate a good percentage of members from the ECENS and GEFS (30 to 45 percent) favor a clusters/pattern closer to the Euro, GEFS and AI (global model suite and ensemble). This favors a drier and cooler pattern into late week. Will have to monitor the synoptic setup as a potential target of opportunity. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 249 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 06Z TAF period, but some patchy BR or FG cannot be ruled out. A reinforcing cold front will bring steady north winds through the day, around 10mph with gusts up to 20mph. Some gradient wind will persist into the evening but less than the afternoon. /NF/DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 78 45 68 39 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 78 43 67 35 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 77 43 67 38 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 79 46 71 37 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 77 48 68 41 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 70 41 62 37 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 72 39 63 35 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.