textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- This week will feature above normal temperatures along with generally dry weather.

- We will be monitoring next weekend for the next potential weather system to impact the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Through tonight: Warmer than normal and dry through the period. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge just to our west that will shift east across our CWA today. This will result in a light return flow by this afternoon. Early morning satellite imagery showed a layer of stratus over our CWA with a sharp back edge from Cleveland, Mississippi to just east of Bastrop, Louisiana and south. This layer of stratus will erode from the west this morning as mid level ridging moves over our CWA in the wake of the upper level trough that brought us the rain Sunday. This will allow more insolation today and combined ridging surface and aloft will help temperatures be warmer than normal today and tonight. /22/

The rest of this week...

Weather will be quiet most of this week under reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80a and lows in the 50s and 60s. This is about +20 above seasonal norms. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week as we transition to a SW flow regime. Guidance has trended towards a less amplified pattern, with instead subtle shortwaves embedded in SW flow. This should support a wetter pattern for late week. Nothing in particular stands out at the moment in terms of flood risk, especially given dry antecedent conditions, but would keep an eye out for heavy rain with anomalous moisture and persistent rainfall with disturbances moving along the stalled boundary and lack of airmass change. The wave for Saturday appears more amplified and pushes the surface front out and ushers in drier air. There are definitely some disagreements at this time regarding the evolution./SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

MVFR Cigs wl prevail areawide through 17Z before starting to improve from the northwest. After 20Z VFR conditions are expected areawide and VFR conditions wl prevail until after 09Z Tue. After 09Z Tue MVFR cigs wl develop cntrl and south but IFR vsby wl be psbl in the se. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 69 49 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 69 47 72 56 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 67 49 72 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 49 76 58 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 71 50 73 59 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 49 69 58 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 68 49 72 59 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.