textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system crossing the forecast area this weekend will bring breezy winds Saturday and showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1248 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Taken on the average, the upper-level weather pattern through the middle of next week will feature a ridge over the central US. But that's the average. A low pressure system over the West Coast today will get swing across the Southern US Saturday through Sunday and bring likely showers and thunderstorms as it passes through our region. Dew points in the 60s will be possible ahead of the system, but the current timing is uncertain whether enough instability will overspread our forecast area for an organized severe weather threat. At this time, it appears that the best environment for severe storm development would be to our west in the ArkLaTex region Saturday afternoon. Storms would be steered east into our forecast area overnight - entering northeast Louisiana probably after dark (9PM Saturday to midnight) and then move eastward. Deep-layer shear of 50- 60 kts will be adequate for organizing storms, but again instability may help dictate coverage of storm threat. We will continue to monitor trends in guidance for severe storm threat. Flooding threat looks minimal, as the guidance has trended toward a progressive wave and spreading out average rainfall amounts into the 1 to 2 inch range and isolated amounts up to around 3 inches.

The system's cold front will knock temperatures down a few degrees for Sunday/Monday, but the rebounding influence of the ridge and lack of substantial polar connection will see temps back in the mid 70s by Tuesday. With overnight lows in the 40s, temps will generally be about 10-15 degrees above average to start the second half of February. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

MVFR conditions will prevail at TAF sites through this evening due to lowered ceilings ceilings as a frontal boundary passes through the region. Winds will be northerly with sustained winds of 10-15kts throughout the period. Dense fog is not expected. /KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 45 69 48 73 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 42 68 43 71 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 44 70 49 74 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 51 73 50 75 / 10 0 0 10 Natchez 50 73 53 78 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 39 63 44 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 40 66 44 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.