textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds are expected tomorrow, with gusts over 30 mph possible especially trough northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS.

- Thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather returns late Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into Thursday, with some drought relief expected.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Short-term weather elements were updated through the daytime tomorrow with latest guidance. As a low pressure system over the Southern High Plains translates east along the Red River Valley, tightening surface pressure gradients in our region will increase southerly flow across our forecast area. Chances for sustained winds above 20 mph and gusts over 30 mph through portions of northeast Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and the Mississippi Delta region looked high enough that a Limited threat for gradient winds has been added to local Hazardous Weather Outlook graphics for tomorrow. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Tonight through Sunday...Conditions will continue to moderate up through mid-week. This is when the next impactful weather will affect the forecast area. Strengthening ridging aloft over the Gulf of America will help to increase moisture across the Lower Mississippi River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. A closed low over the desert southwest, will phase with a stronger closed low centered over northern Canada and its attendant trough stretching southeast across the central United State during this time.

While most of the CWA will remain dry on Tuesday, a shortwave embedded in quasi-zonal flow ahead of this main trough, will cause a frontal boundary to slowly sink southeast toward the far northwest corner of the forecast area late Tuesday. While the bulk of any convection will be confined to the front, which currently looks to remain just out of our area Tuesday night, ensuing increases in instability, deep-layer wind shear, and mid-level lapse, could result in an isolated severe storm making it into far northwest portions of the Delta region overnight Tuesday. A "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) for severe storms currently exists there. Damaging wind gusts and hail to the size of quarters will be the primary concern with these isolated storms.

The threat for severe weather will then become more widespread across the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, as a "Slight Risk" (Level 2 of 5) for severe storms currently resides across the majority of the CWA. Another disturbance embedded in quasi-zonal flow will lift northeast across the region during the afternoon, causing the aforementioned cold front to begin sinking southeastward.

Highs warming into the mid and upper 80s and dew points climbing into the 70s, will aid in yielding MLCAPE values hovering in the 1500-2500 J/kg range. This, along with increasing deep-layer wind shear (0-6 km values 50-65 knots), steepening mid-level lapse rates (7-7.5 C/km) and vertical totals of 26-28C will all combine to bring about this threat of severe storms as the front sinks south through the forecast area Wednesday afternoon and night. Damaging winds and large hail from quarter to golf ball size (especially with any post- frontal storms) will be the primary threats. However, a tornado cannot be ruled out.

In addition to the severe storm threat, some concern for short- duration heavy rainfall and possible training of convection could yield some potential for localized flash flooding. Despite last weeks rainfall, drought conditions continue across the forecast area, with soils having already dried and recovered from said rains last week. Therefore, confidence in flooding with this next system is currently too low to include in this forecast package. Still, this will continue to be monitored in future data.

With convection lingering in the wake of the front on Thursday, the main trough will swing through the region. Activity will gradually come to an end across the forecast area through the course of the day, with cooler drier conditions advecting into the region. Through the remainder of the forecast period, Friday through Sunday, inconsistencies in global models currently exist. Regardless, conditions will moderate up each day, with at least some mention of an isolated shower or storm each afternoon. /19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 837 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the period. Southerly winds will increase in speed during the day Tuesday, with gusts to around 25-30 kts near KGLH and KGWO after 15Z. Gusts to 20-25 kts are possible at the other sites. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 57 83 67 83 / 0 10 10 80 Meridian 53 83 64 84 / 0 10 0 70 Vicksburg 60 83 68 84 / 0 10 10 80 Hattiesburg 55 84 64 87 / 0 0 0 50 Natchez 59 83 68 86 / 0 0 0 70 Greenville 62 83 68 77 / 10 10 40 90 Greenwood 60 82 68 80 / 0 20 40 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.