textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Through early next week (Today through next Tuesday)...

Today into tonight: Earlier upper low has lifted northward, with southerly flow and cold core near the TX/OK Panhandles. An area of potential vorticity is stretched southeast across the Red River Valley into the TX Gulf Coast. This is driving a complex moving towards the Houston metro that will gradually propagate eastward into ArkLaTex and potentially western portions of the region around midday (as early as mid-morning to as late as early afternoon). This doesn't look to be particularly organized and likely more cold pool propagating, but could be the impetus for more low-level convergence and afternoon convection. Upper jet will be ejecting into the ArkLaTex, but low-level jet will be weaker than before. Afternoon convection will be scattered to numerous in coverage (55 to 80 percent). Highs will remain seasonable (mid 80s), with seasonably warm lows this morning and again tonight (upper 60s to low 70s). HREF probability match mean (PMMs) indicate another round of neighborhood probs (10 percent) for receiving in excess of 3 inches. There are scattered areas of HREF maximums around 3 to 4 inches, with locally higher. Because this is more situated further westward migration of QPF axis. Tropical moisture (1.8 to 2 inch PWs, light, 5-10kts, to variable backbuilding vectors and 850mb Theta E around 335-340K) support locally heavy downpours. Ongoing HWO graphic looks valid.

Thursday through next Tuesday: As upper low over TX/OK Panhandle lifts north, southerly flow will remain established but lighter through the week. The region will remain in a longwave quasi- omega block pattern into mid to late week (upper low caught over the Pacific states and developing longwave trough over the northeast states into eastern Canada). However, this synoptic pattern doesn't look as established as a typical omega block, with strong subtropical ridging established over the western Atlantic extending westward into the FL Peninsula. On the eastern periphery of the western portion of the quasi-omega block the perturbed energy/vort max will lift northward Thursday. This will keep light return flow but deep moisture near 2 inch PWs and light backbuilding flow through late week. Rain coverage will remain high through the work week (55 to 90 percent daily) with Thursday higher coverage areawide while more focused eastward into Friday. Kept "Limited" going into late week (Thursday to Friday) with continued antecedent support and local mesoscale features driving day-to-day flash flood concerns. This will be need to be continually evaluated daily.

As the upper lifts and shears out across the Mid South to Mid MS Valley into the weekend, westerly flow will lock in, leading to less moist Gulf influence and more scattered rain and storm coverage (55 to 70 percent Saturday and Sunday). Highs remain seasonably cool this week (low to upper 80s) while generally seasonably warm lows (upper 60s to low 70s). Longer range pattern consists of surface high diving into the Great Lakes and eventual drying front from the north. However trends have slowed, with most relief in rain coverage becoming more scattered next Monday to isolated to scattered next Tuesday to Wednesday (20 to 40 percent). Continued seasonable cool highs and less seasonably warm lows will be the norm into early next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Wed May 27 2026

MVFR to IFR stratus ceilings are common across the area this morning, except in parts of the MS Delta, with patchy fog in east MS. Categories should improve by mid morning in most areas, with VFR conditions returning. Otherwise, scattered SHRA and TSRA will be possible through this evening. TS could lead to brief visby restrictions. Another round of low stratus ceilings is possible late tonight into Thursday morning. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 86 70 83 69 / 60 50 80 40 Meridian 86 69 84 69 / 70 20 70 50 Vicksburg 85 70 82 69 / 80 60 80 30 Hattiesburg 85 70 84 69 / 80 50 80 40 Natchez 86 70 83 69 / 80 60 80 40 Greenville 85 70 82 69 / 70 50 70 50 Greenwood 86 70 84 69 / 60 50 80 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.