textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A major ice storm is expected to continue unfolding across much of northwest portions of our forecast area through Sunday.

- Significant impacts from ice and sleet could develop as far southeast as the Natchez Trace corridor tonight into Sunday. - Significant to Extreme cold conditions with dangerously low temperatures and wind chills are expected early next week following the winter weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The well-advertised ice storm is underway in the region, with a mix of sleet and freezing rain falling in portions of north Louisiana, southeast Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi at the present hour. This will be followed by dangerously cold conditions heading into Sunday night and early this next week. Arctic air continues to ooze southward through the Mississippi River Valley even during the daytime. Temps as far south as Jena and Sicily Island in Louisiana have wet-bulbed to freezing (32 F) with precip falling so far today. At the same time, the "warm nose" of air advecting northeast across this air mass has slightly warmed since this morning. The 12Z KJAN sounding measured a warm temp of around 9 C at 850mb, but a special 18Z KJAN sounding measured a saturated column with 13 C at 900 mb. Just to our west, a ULM research team's sounding measured a similar warm layer aloft, but cloud temps in the shallow arctic air beneath this layer were as cold as -8 C and sleet was observed with convective banding. This suggests the intensity of precip and coldness of air near the surface will be enough to push precip type to sleet as the air mass deepens. Extending northeast into central portions of MS and northeast MS, the freezing line is holding steady or even lifting northward through this afternoon. The transition to ice or sleet along this transition zone remains the challenge for this forecast.

West of the transition line, significant to extreme impacts from ice and sleet accumulations is already causing ice to impact roads and bridges. And this impact will increase through the day and into tonight with additional rounds of possible into the day Sunday. It appears there may be a relative "lull" in intensity of precip say between 6 PM this evening and midnight, but the second primary wave of rain/freezing rain/sleet will develop early in the Sunday morning hours in advance of the next upper-level shortwave trough. This is the round of precip which could bring more significant impacts of ice and sleet towards the Natchez Trace corridor, while impacts continue to the northwest. A developing surface low and cold front focused in southeast LA/southeast MS will lift into the Southeast US tomorrow. Modest wind shear and enough surface-based instability southeast of the developing front may allow for some of the storms in the morning hours to become strong to severe across far southeast MS. It's a conditional threat, but if a forced line of storms moves through the warmer air mass in those areas, then damaging wind gusts could be a concern. A Marginal risk for severe storms is therefore advertised from 6 AM to Noon Sunday in our southeast MS counties.

Most new-falling precip impacts should end in our forecast area by Noon to 3 PM Sunday, though it's always possible for some snow flurries and freezing drizzle to persist into the evening as colder air deepens and dries out the atmosphere. This is when impacts will shift from precipitation-driven to temperature-driven. An Extreme Cold Warning is in place from tomorrow night through Tuesday morning for our entire forecast area. In addition to the areas already staying colder than freezing even through the day tomorrow, overnight lows will fall into the 10-20 degree range tomorrow night and 5-15 degree range Monday night. With some wind still, wind chills early Monday morning should bottom out around 0 degrees in the ArkLaMiss Delta ranging to around 10 degrees in the Pine Belt of southeast MS. It's still possible for some portions of the Delta to only warm up around freezing on Tuesday, but most locations should warm into the 30s and 40s Tuesday afternoon. Northwest flow aloft with longwave troughing over the eastern CONUS will reinforce cool air in our region through the end of the week, and temps should mainly hold in the 10s/20s overnight and 30s/40s during the day across our CWA. There is a low confidence, low chance for precip in our area next weekend. It is too far out to say that wintry precip of any type will fall, but there is no strong signal for that at this current time. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Poor flying conditions as a mix of MVFR/IFR flight conditions prevail across TAF sites. -FZRA near GWO and GLH will gradually spread to the southeast throughout the evening and overnight hours, reaching near JAN, HKS by 12Z Sunday. A mix of -FZRA,-RA, and RA will continue throughout Sunday, resulting in IFR and possible LIFR flight conditions through the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 32 36 16 29 / 100 100 0 0 Meridian 40 57 17 35 / 100 100 10 0 Vicksburg 26 30 14 27 / 100 100 0 0 Hattiesburg 49 67 22 39 / 100 100 10 0 Natchez 28 33 16 31 / 100 100 0 0 Greenville 21 25 11 23 / 100 100 0 0 Greenwood 25 28 11 24 / 100 100 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>038- 040>044-047>049-053-054-059>061.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Sunday for MSZ039-045-050-055-056-062.

LA...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ARZ074-075.

Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Sunday to noon CST Tuesday for ARZ074-075.