textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The chance for significant rainfall will gradually lower over the next several days. Flooding impacts may linger.

- Isolated severe storms are possible over the area again Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Through Friday: The threat for additional flooding rainfall has lessened this afternoon and a low chance of isolated severe storms has been confined to our southeast zones through late afternoon. Damaging wind gusts and perhaps a brief tornado will remain possible with any severe storm.

The center of circulation associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur were noted on radar and satellite imagery moving east into northwest Alabama. These remnants will accelerate to the east tonight leaving our CWA in a warm moist airmass. Most of the convection will dissipate this evening but there will remain low chances for rain through Friday morning. Rain chances will ramp up Friday afternoon and early evening as a shortwave over the southern and central Plains helps develop an MCS along with an approaching weak frontal boundary that may stall across the region. Provided the MCS develops as anticipated and moves into our CWA along with the frontal boundary, isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible. This convection will also result in the chance for locally heavy rainfall of a couple inches in a short amount of time. Considering the antecedent conditions including river flooding, wl maintain the Flash Flood Watch across the same area through Friday afternoon. /22/

Through mid next week...

The boundary begins to make headway into the area by the weekend and likely washes out this weekend. Airmass modification is likely slim, but PWAT, while still supportive of additional rainfall, will be more seasonal (1.5-1.7). This should provide some "break" from the onslaught of moisture, with coverage overall more scattered this weekend. Additional rainfall amounts this weekend generally look to be in the 1 to 2 inch range. Southwesterly flow will continue to reinforce rain chances through the remainder of the period, but increased westerly/northwesterly flow by the middle next week may mean that relief from heavy rainfall may be on the way.

Towards the end of the period, there is potential to transition towards a NW flow regime as a ridge strengthens over the SW CONUS. Right now in the guidance it looks like there is potential for a stalled boundary to be in place, while multiple shortwaves ride the ridge. All the while, low level flow will likely remain southwesterly as we remain under the western flank of the low level ridge. This could set up the area for rounds of severe weather, likely MCS scenario. Of course, more details will be provided as they become available. /SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Sites may briefly improve to VFR this aftn but MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to prevail through the TAF period. Occasional -SHRA/-TSRA wl bring lower conditions this aftn into early evening and then again before the end of the TAF period Friday. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 87 73 88 / 50 80 80 80 Meridian 73 86 72 87 / 60 80 70 90 Vicksburg 75 88 74 88 / 40 80 60 70 Hattiesburg 77 90 75 89 / 50 70 80 90 Natchez 77 91 75 90 / 30 60 70 60 Greenville 75 87 73 86 / 50 70 70 80 Greenwood 74 88 72 87 / 40 70 70 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch through Friday evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Friday evening for LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.