textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm is expected to bring significant impacts from a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow Friday evening into Sunday.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are also likely for Friday night into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Chances have increased for significant impacts from a winter storm this weekend. Most significant changes to the current forecast were to enhance and expand messaging for the Significant impacts on our local hazardous weather outlook graphics, and to generally trend upward for QPF during the period of winter weather and transitional time frames. The broad picture is coming into better focus, but specific amounts and locations could still change at this time frame out from this winter storm event. Latest graphics and messaging are based on a reasonable range of possible ice/sleet/snow accumulations. We have also added a graphic to local products showing reasonable earliest onset times for winter weather across various portions of the forecast area.

Longwave trough aloft will steer reinforcing cool air masses toward the Gulf Coast through the end of this week, with one shortwave disturbance tomorrow generating some lift and moistening for light to moderate rainfall in the area. But more significantly is the trending model consensus for the strength and extent of an Arctic air mass dropping out of Canada into the central CONUS Thursday night into Friday. The core of the surface high with 1045mb+ pressure values will settle into the Upper Midwest before weakening, but the expansive air mass will spread toward the south and linger into early next week. This will result in a strong north- south temperature gradient. To our west, a closed low pressure system moving from the Pacific over the Desert Southwest will more likely influence what degree of winter weather impacts we experience here in our forecast area. Model guidance is trending toward a consensus on the scenario for better northward transport of moisture and therefore more expansive winter weather impacts through the Gulf South and Midsouth regions. There are still differences for how progressive the system will be (as expected with southwest lows at this time of year), but sufficient agreement is there to extend the threat for wintry precip falling into the morning at least on Sunday. Regardless of the exact setup, the likelihood of at least 1/4 inch (Ice Storm Warning criteria) has increased to at least 50- 60% for areas mainly along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Chances even into southeast Mississippi for 1/4 inch ice accumulations are around 20-40% at this time. Reasonable upper limits indicate around a 20% chance for 1 inch of ice accumulation in the Bastrop, Lake Providence, Hamburg, Greenville, and Cleveland areas. This ice storm threat was the primary driver for expanding the winter storm impact areas on local graphics and in messaging. Significant snowfall still appears to be most likely north and west of our forecast area, but we'll keep an eye on trends there. And sleet mixing in with freezing rain could alter some impacts, though would still pose a threat to travel.

The reinforcing nature of the air mass with precipitation falling through it will likely keep a portion of the area near or below freezing from Friday night through Sunday night, and even some Delta areas Monday or Tuesday. With overnight low temperatures in the 10s and 20s Friday night through early in next week, Dangerous Cold is also a high risk. Temperatures below freezing for a few days will pose risk to in-ground and exposed above-ground water pipes. Precautions should be taken over the next few days to prepare for the extended cold weather. Expect refining of details to the forecast over the next few days. Caution should be advised for referencing online snowfall maps from weather models. Even if the liquid equivalent totals are reasonable, many of these outputs rely on "standard" snow-to-liquid ratios of 10 to 1. Expected atmospheric parameters for this upcoming event currently limit snow-to-liquid ratios closer to 2 to 1 or 4 to 1, thus reducing possible snowfall amounts that could be achieved from the expected precipitation totals. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 519 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Clouds will gradually increase across the area from the southwest overnight into Wednesday. Despite this, VFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites this evening and through the overnight hours. As moisture aloft increases on Wednesday, both rain and lowering ceilings will result in a mix of flight categories as they range mainly from VFR to MVFR during the afternoon hours. Winds will become more southeasterly through the night while increasing to around 5 knots. Winds will be breezy from the southeast on Wednesday, sustained around 10 knots and gusting up to 20 knots at times. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 38 58 50 62 / 0 60 80 60 Meridian 33 58 46 61 / 0 30 70 60 Vicksburg 39 58 48 61 / 0 70 90 60 Hattiesburg 38 67 52 71 / 0 30 40 50 Natchez 43 61 52 66 / 0 60 70 50 Greenville 36 52 44 53 / 0 90 70 40 Greenwood 37 55 45 56 / 0 90 80 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.