textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend will continue, with dangerous heat stress a concern the rest of the weekend through mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Through late week (Friday)...

This weekend: Morning water vapor analysis indicate large scale ridging over majority of the nation, with two areas of upper lows over West TX and the eastern Gulf near the FL Peninsula. In between, there are three distinct ridges around 594-595DM: one over the Four Corners to Rockies,another in the western Gulf and Atlantic subtropical ridging. This pattern will mostly remain in place through the weekend, with upper low and weak surface reflection over the northeast Gulf having a medium chance (40 percent) of development over the next week. This will lead to some moist ascent and convergence northwest of this feature, in the Gulf Coast states, through the weekend. Main story remains the dangerous heat today through the weekend, continuing into early next week. Thermal profiles (850mb temps of 18C to 20C and 925mb temps around 24C to 25C) support efficient warming through the weekend. Seasonable warmth is expected, around 3F to 8F above (93F to 98F, warmest in the Pine Belt). These areas in southeast MS reached the upper 90s yesterday (98F at Pine Belt Regional Airport/PIB and 97F at Laurel/KLUL) so peaking near triple digits cannot be ruled out. A few showers or storms cannot be ruled out along the MS/AL state line and Highway 45 to Interstate 59 corridors. Regardless, heat indices should peak into the low to mid 100s, so inherited heat advisory is on track. There may need to be some gradual expansion of heat headlines but probably more into the work week on Monday. Elevated in HWO looks on track. Lows will be seasonably warm (73F to 77F).

Upcoming week: As upper low and any surface reflection meanders northwest, flow aloft becomes more northeasterly and an uptick in convergence and deep moisture climbs (2.1 to 2.3 inch PWs). Combined with a frontal zone sinking southward this week, slight to scattered rain coverage will be possible for areas east of Interstate 55, especially in the Highway 45 to Interstate 59 corridors. As thermal profiles moderate, heat and humidity will climb. Heat indices will climb (105F to 110F range) early next week, with potential to exceed it in some areas. Future expansion of heat headlines will likely be needed and potential upgrade to Extreme Heat headlines and Significant as well. Heat may not be as intense as blended guidance is indicating (101F to 104F range), but high moisture will combine with highs near or exceeding triple digits to support dangerous heat areawide and potential Extreme heat. Some rain and convection remain possible as any upper low/surface low drifts near the northwest Gulf coast near FL/AL coastlines and front drifts southward into the region. Cannot rule out some rain and storms through midweek (Tuesday to Wednesday) and some stronger storms cannot be ruled out with heat, humidity, lapse rates and light northeasterly flow. Heat concerns will lessen into late week, with decreased thermal warmth and slightly less oppressive heat and humidity. Rain and storm chances lessen into late week. Synoptic pattern shifts more northwesterly flow and an uptick in rain and storm coverage is expected into the weekend after the long range forecast period. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1247 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 96 76 97 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 75 97 75 97 / 10 20 20 30 Vicksburg 75 96 76 97 / 10 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 75 98 76 98 / 10 20 20 40 Natchez 75 97 75 98 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 76 97 77 98 / 10 0 0 10 Greenwood 75 98 75 98 / 10 10 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025-034>036- 040>043-047>050-053>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ008-009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ075.