textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected across at least portions of the forecast area through the end of this week.

- Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible across portions of the area today and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Dangerous heat remains a persistent concern over the next several days into early next week, but steady moisture content (as seen by dew points remaining in the low to mid 70s this afternoon) is increasing the risk for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms today and tomorrow. Analyzed SBCAPE values are near 5000 J/kg this afternoon across northeastern parts of Mississippi where moisture is greatest. Heating and weak convergence in the frontal zone will support thundestorm development particularly in that zone, with activity then spreading south and east through the instability axis. Isolated shower and storm development is possible elsewhere. DCAPE is 1100+ J/kg across the forecast area, so any substantial convection will carry the risk for damaging wind gusts from microbursts. Similar conditions will be in place, and a Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for the northeastern 2/3rds of the forecast area.

Heat remains dangerous. Several sites continue to reach air temperatures of 100 degrees, with peak heat index values near 110- 115 degrees. Gradual easing is expected as this frontal boundary and drier air edge southward into the weekend, but afternoon heat index values are still expected to peak near or above 105 degrees into early next week especially in the southwestern half of our forecast area. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 PM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Isolated to scattered TSRA will affect sites this afternoon briefly lowering conditions. Winds will remain light throughout the period./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 76 99 75 98 / 20 10 10 30 Meridian 75 99 74 97 / 20 20 20 30 Vicksburg 77 98 76 99 / 10 10 10 30 Hattiesburg 76 99 75 98 / 30 20 20 50 Natchez 76 99 76 99 / 10 10 0 30 Greenville 79 100 76 99 / 10 10 40 10 Greenwood 77 98 74 97 / 10 20 40 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ026>033-037>039- 044>046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053-054-059>061.

LA...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007-015-023.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009- 016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ074-075.

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.