textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through much of the upcoming week due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Rest of tonight...

Quiet and dry evening with pleasant and chilly night expected across the region. Water vapor/RAP analysis indicate ridge centered over the MS River to Gulf Coast, with surface high pressure centered over the northeast down into the Southeast. Broad subsidence and dry thermal profiles (i.e. GOES East total precipitable water and regional soundings remain around half inch) remain parked over the Gulf Coast. Seasonable lows remain on tap (44F to 53F). Based on favorable radiational cooling, nudged lows slightly down towards lower percentile (10th) of blended guidance. High clouds may tamper down some in the west but east of Interstate 55 should radiate efficiently. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

Through the Week...

The forecast remains on track: Sprawling high pressure over our region is the primary driver of (no) weather heading into the new week. A highly amplified upper- level ridge axis extends along the Mississippi River this afternoon, while the axis of the surface high pressure system over the Northeast US extends along the Appalachians and over the Gulf Coast. This subsident, dry weather regime with large diurnal temperature ranges will continue through at least Thursday, and perhaps longer depending on which longer range guidance best verifies.

Have extended the "Elevated" fire danger graphic accordingly as low humidity and warm temperatures that have stressed and dried out vegetation transitioning out of the growing season. The ridge will be strongest today and Monday, and then should gradually be suppressed by the westerlies thereafter, but do not expect any significant change in sensible weather at the surface, through at least Thursday.

The Upcoming Weekend...

By next weekend, the general idea in the guidance is for at least some moist return flow and possible interaction with a shortwave/cold front that could bring at least low to medium rain chances. The greatest chance for rain at this point looks to be next Sunday. The forecast for Sunday is 7 days (~168 hours) out, as such there is a lot of divergence in the global model guidance. Continue to monitor our updates as we approach the weekend and timing/intensity details can be have more certainty and more convergent solutions. Regardless of any rain chances, temperatures for the upcoming Halloween day/night may push 10 degrees warmer than normal. /OAJ/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 623 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2026

VFR flight categories, with increasingly scattered high cirrus, and light easterly winds will remain the norm through the 00Z TAF period. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 50 80 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 46 77 47 79 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 50 81 52 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 47 81 49 83 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 53 80 54 82 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 51 79 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 79 49 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.