textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated threat for dangerous heat stress will continue through the weekend into next week. A Heat Advisory remains in effect, and an Extreme Heat Warning may be needed for some portions of the area by early next week.

- Rain chances remain minimal through the weekend, with some isolated chances into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Today through next Friday...

No changes have been made to the forecast, and the overall messaging of dangerous heat remains the same. The subtropical ridge will continue to build, expand, and intensify over the southeast CONUS as we go through the rest of the late week and into the weekend. Subsidence beneath the ridge along with increased sunshine will limit rain chances across the south today through Sunday with afternoon highs peaking in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Although some of the humidity will be eased due to the strengthened ridge, the combination of heat and humidity will ensure that most days see peak heat index reading values in the 105-110 degree range through the weekend. No changes have been made to the heat graphic and a "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised for our entire forecast area into early next week. Likewise, the areawide Heat Advisory remains in effect until 8 pm Sunday evening.

Dangerous heat will continue across the area heading into early next week. Monday and Tuesday look to be the hottest days of the extended period with several locations reaching the 100 degree mark. There is a possibility that a few locations may reach 103 degrees and we may see some new record highs being set, especially if the warmer guidance overperforms.

There is a chance that portions of the "Elevated" risk could get upgraded to a "Significant" risk for dangerous heat where heat indices could exceed above 110 degrees as we get closer to Monday. An Extreme Heat Warning may eventually be needed for portions of the area for Monday and Tuesday. Given that this focus is still far enough out in time, we will hold off on introducing "Significant" heat risk for now. Additional heat headlines and advisories/warnings may eventually be introduced as we get closer to the mid-week.

Regarding the rain chances, they are mostly non-existent until early next week. At that time, global guidance continues to show a signal for deeper moisture in the westerlies north of the high center to circulate around the high and potentially increase convective rainfall chances over eastern portions of the forecast area. Rain chances could be further increased by an approaching frontal boundary, but any relief from the heat that could result remains uncertain at this time. Rain chances will start to increase slightly across much of the area (15-25%) heading into Friday. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 99 76 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 99 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 101 76 102 76 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 100 75 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 101 77 102 78 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 99 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.