textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather this weekend.

- Much needed rain should fall across the entire area. - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather resumes

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Convection is mostly of diurnal nature and lingering but less robust as insolation wanes into this evening. Synoptic and surface analysis this evening indicate ridge of high pressure at the surface and aloft parked over the subtropical Atlantic and extending westward into the Atlantic Seaboard while shortwave trough is now moving into the Mid-West. Southerly moist return flow will be the norm overnight with continued seasonable warmth, some 16F to 22F above (63F to 66F southeast of Delta while 67F to 70F in the Delta region). Low stratus will again be a concern overnight, generally along and south of Interstate 20, with most fog concerns in the Interstate 59 to Highway 98 to 84 corridors. HREF dense fog probs remain low. Based on that, added fog but no concerns for dense fog. Updates were sent out earlier. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Through tonight: Scattered showers and a few storms accompanied by fairly strong outflows are advancing quickly northward across the western half of the forecast area this afternoon. The storms aren't particularly intense, but southerly flow of 20 to 30 kt in the lowest few thousand feet is helping to enhance the downdraft/outflow process, and this is leading to strong convective gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The activity should diminish quickly with loss of heating early this evening, then expect quiet weather overnight with perhaps a few patchy areas of fog in the Pine Belt region early Friday morning.

Friday: With no airmass change expected, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will once again be possible Friday. Low level flow could help to enhance wind gust potential as was the case today, especially over western portions of the area in the afternoon.

Then for Saturday: A marginal risk for severe weather including wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size has been maintained per SPC, and it appears the "peak" storm intensity should be along/nw of the Natchez Trace Corridor roughly in the late afternoon to evening time frame where west to east wind surges may have greater potential for occurrence relative to other areas. From there the overall threat should diminish as you go southeast. Weak lapse rates, weak deep layer shear, and weak forcing all limit potential for greater severe, but just enough of these ingredients will combine to maintain this marginal severe threat. Deep layer moisture could be sufficient to support isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

Sunday through mid week: In the wake, sometime later Sunday, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week, until the later half of the week when weak moisture recovery should bring slight rain chances back into the forecast, mainly in the southwest. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Convection is lingering but less robust as daytime heating wanes. Focus turns to MVFR to IFR low stratus and patchy fog/BR developing into Friday morning. Onset is generally after 03/05-07Z Friday, with lowest flight restrictions daybreak before clearing around 03/15-16Z. Southerly winds subside a bit this evening. Gradient winds pick up Friday but not as strong as today. Rain and storm chances Friday will be focused near HEZ and possible near GLH, with onset generally after 03/19-20Z and persisting through the end of the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 66 85 65 83 / 10 10 0 80 Meridian 64 86 63 85 / 10 10 0 60 Vicksburg 67 85 65 83 / 10 30 10 90 Hattiesburg 66 85 66 85 / 10 10 0 60 Natchez 68 84 67 83 / 10 40 0 90 Greenville 69 85 68 79 / 10 30 20 90 Greenwood 68 87 66 82 / 10 10 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.