textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Through Memorial Day: A warm moist airmass will remain over the region through the period a fuel the development of rounds of showers and storms. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a northern stream shortwave trough axis over western Tennessee and northwest Mississippi and a weak cut off low over the southern Plains. The shortwave trough will lift out to the northeast while the weak cutoff low drifts east towards our CWA. Combined with daytime heating this afternoon and again Monday, these features will result in scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm develop over our CWA with the greatest chances for rain over the southeast half. Only isolated showers were noted on local radars at early afternoon but the coverage and intensity were increasing. Latest guidance has backed off on rainfall amounts in the short term but the 12Z Sun JAN sounding had a PWAT of an inch and three quarters. PWATs are expected to increase to near two inches and support locally heavy rainfall at times. There may be runoff issues leading brief flooding over the southeast portions of the CWA tonight and again Monday. /22/

Tuesday through Saturday: While guidance has pulled back on the heavy rain threats for this weekend due to the eastward shift of the MCV track, there is still a lot of guidance that suggest we'll see a good bit of rainfall later in the week, particularly in the Tue-Thu time frame. During this time frame, a reinvigorated western CONUS trough will result in more favorable orientation of water vapor transport into our forecast area. Confidence in the overall flood threat is not great in light of recent guidance inconsistencies, but the ingredients for heavy rainfall, including the potential for training convection to develop in a very moist and precip-efficient airmass, remain in our region, along with fairly high soil moisture. Will therefore maintain a limited threat for flash flooding in our HWO graphics and hold off on any threat increases until there is an overwhelming amount of observational/guidance support to justify it. Otherwise, we should expect higher than normal rain chances and typical late May temperatures as we go through mid/late week into next weekend. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail this aftn away from isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA that are expected to develop over the area by 21Z and continue through 02Z. VFR conditions wl prevail this evening and until after 08Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop and prevail until improving close to the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 82 68 83 / 50 60 50 80 Meridian 67 81 68 81 / 50 70 60 90 Vicksburg 67 83 67 84 / 40 50 30 70 Hattiesburg 68 81 69 82 / 50 70 60 90 Natchez 68 84 68 84 / 40 50 50 70 Greenville 67 82 68 84 / 40 40 50 70 Greenwood 67 83 67 84 / 40 50 50 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.