textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash flooding and severe weather potential continues through early this morning.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected following the cold front this weekend.

- Colder weather may be in store in the longer range.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 650 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

The cold front has just about cleared the southeastern corner of our CWA this morning, with a short remaining period of severe weather and flooding risk associated with storms along this front. Short-term weather elements were updated with latest guidance. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

Through today: Convective coverage has begun to increase early this morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Severe weather has been somewhat limited thus far overnight, but with increasing low level shear in a strengthening low level jet and modest instability, there will be increasing potential for instances of severe weather over the next several hours with damaging wind or a tornado or two being the most likely threats. The lack of more coherent forcing, which has resulted in much messier/less organized convection, is one of the biggest detractors from severe weather development in spite of the available ingredients.

There also remains potential for flash flooding, and the Flood Watch was extended through the overnight given the continued pockets of heavy rain. So far the most impressive rainfall totals have been across southeast and east MS, where rainfall estimates from the past 24 hours are approaching 7-9" in a few areas. Given the lack of flooding so far in those areas, this may be a hopeful sign that impacts will be more limited to urban and low lying areas typically prone to run off problems.

Rain will end from west to east early today as the front pushes through, and convection may linger along the I-59 corridor as late as mid-morning. Low clouds will linger through much of the day with increasing cold advection by the afternoon. High temps for today will occur in the morning at most locations with temps dropping through the remainder of the day. We may see clouds begin to clear out by the late afternoon up in the Delta, but clearing may not occur until after sunset elsewhere.

Sunday through Friday: Cooler but seasonable conditions will prevail in the wake of the front. A reinforcing front during the day Sunday will help sustain that airmass into the beginning of the new work week, and freezes will be possible both Monday and Tuesday mornings. Temperatures will moderate somewhat into midweek as low level flow shifts back around to southerly.

Another cold front is expected around Wednesday, but limited moisture return ahead of it should limit rain potential. The airmass change behind this front is expected to be more substantial, with additional freezes increasingly likely over the latter half of next week. /DL/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 650 AM CST Sat Jan 10 2026

A mix of IFR to MVFR ceilings expected at the start of the period, with gradual clearing at all sites to prevailing VFR generally by 00Z Sunday. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 37 52 30 / 80 0 0 0 Meridian 71 38 53 28 / 100 0 0 0 Vicksburg 66 37 53 30 / 60 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 74 42 60 31 / 90 0 0 0 Natchez 66 38 55 31 / 70 0 0 0 Greenville 62 37 48 29 / 40 0 0 0 Greenwood 64 35 50 28 / 70 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ038-039-043>046- 048>066-072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.