textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- We will be monitoring a stormy weather pattern for additional flash flood and severe weather threats this week. - Dangerous heat stress will return for much of the area Monday and continue through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Tonight through Saturday...A fairly active pattern will persist across the forecast area through much of this forecast period. A quasi-zonal to northwest flow pattern aloft will continue across the region through the work week. This, as south to southwest flow at the surface persists. This setup will continue to promote a rather humid and unstable airmass across the region, as disturbances aloft moving across and/or near the region keep good rain chances in the forecast through late week.

IN the meantime for the rest of the afternoon into this evening, a line of convection will continue to lift northeast across northern portions of the CWA. In its wake, some isolated showers and storms will remain possible into this evening, but this line of convection has taken some punch out of our atmosphere for the rest of today. Some of these storms along this line could be strong and capable of producing gusty winds, along with between 0.5-0.75 inches in a short amount of time, possibly resulting in some localized ponding of water in low-lying and poor drainage areas. Quiet weather overall is expected tonight, but some showers and storms beginning to impede upon far northern portions of the CWA can't be ruled out Monday morning.

On Monday, an outflow boundary is currently progged to bring a complex of storms into the forecast area during the course of the day. This complex will bring the potential for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts to much of the CWA during this time. In addition, very frequent lightning can be expected, along with the potential for flash flooding as a result of both antecedent conditions and the potential for training of convection producing very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. Both of these hazards will continue to be highlighted in the HWO for Monday, along with the potential for dangerous heat stress across mainly western and southern portions of the forecast area Monday afternoon.

Throughout the remainder of the work week, and as eluded to above, disturbances aloft will continue to result in the potential for storms across the forecast area each day. While confidence in any potential for at least isolated severe storms is currently too low to mention in the HWO past Monday, some storms could be strong enough to at least produce some gusty winds. The 12Z KJAN RAOB, and those immediately surrounding our CWA, will need to be analyzed daily to determine the area's microburst potential. Also, with the copious amount of moisture remaining over the area and the saturated soil conditions, some potential for localized flash flooding will exist each day with convection.

Come the weekend, the increasing presence of ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface across the region looks to lessen rain chances. However, high humidity levels, aided by continued saturated soil conditions from recent heavy rains, and highs warming in the low to middle 90s Saturday, could bring about the concern for dangerous heat stress conditions as afternoon heat index values could climb above 100F. This is several days out, and will continue to be monitored in the latest forecasts. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with periods of IFR conditions as SHRA/TSRA impact sites this afternoon. Winds will be southwesterly with gusts of generally under 30kts and sustained generally under 15kts. /KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 92 75 90 / 0 20 30 50 Meridian 75 92 74 90 / 20 30 30 70 Vicksburg 76 91 76 90 / 0 30 20 30 Hattiesburg 76 93 76 93 / 10 10 0 20 Natchez 76 92 76 92 / 0 0 10 20 Greenville 75 90 74 87 / 20 80 70 70 Greenwood 75 90 74 87 / 30 80 70 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.