textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are developing and will persist through this morning. Additional fog cannot be ruled out again tonight.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances return to the area tomorrow. Severe storms remain a concern Friday into Saturday.

- Much cooler temperatures this weekend. Likely frost and freeze early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 AM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Through early next week...

Today and Thursday: Water vapor/RAP analysis this morning indicate predominately zonal flow while shortwave ridging is centered to the west, with broad ridge over the Bay of Campeche. Return moist flow has led to concerns for stratus and dense fog. HREF dense fog probs remain likely (30 to 70 percent) and dense fog is developing across a broad portion of the area. Ongoing dense fog HWO graphic and headlines are on track. Another round of at the very least patchy dense fog cannot be ruled out again tonight. Will assess and make any additional updates as needed. Southerly gradient winds will be a touch higher and could hamper more favorable potential.

Seasonable warmth will be the norm during this period. Lead wave will of jet energy will swing through the Mid-West Thursday, driving a weak frontal zone today but stall along to north of I-20. The best moist convergence will be Thursday afternoon to overnight in the Delta, where a few showers and isolated storm or two are possible. Seasonably warm temperatures will be the norm, some well above normal values, up to 25F to 30F above normal. Tightening pressure gradient (6 to 10mb) may support some brief gusts in excess of 30mph Thursday afternoon to evening. Will hold off on any HWO graphic. SPC continues to advertise isolated severe potential Thursday in the Delta, which is possible with some shear (30 to 50kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers) and MLCAPE (200 to 400 J/kg). Timing will be mainly Thursday night, generally after midnight. Gusty winds would be the main concern but a brief tornado couldn't be ruled out. Will add this messaging in HWO graphics.

Late week into early next week (Friday into next Tuesday): Global, ensemble and AI model suite indicate this lead wave ejection and southern trailing spoke/cold core hanging over the Desert SW to TX to OK Panhandles into Friday. Severe potential remains the main concern. Juxtaposition of sufficient low to deep shear (40 to 55kts in the 0- 3km and 0-6km layers) and lapse rates/destabilization (25C to 27C vertical totals and 500 to 1000 MLCAPE) continue to support severe potential. However, mostly unidirectional shear and stable to slight height rises (578 to 582DM at 500mb) may limit some potential. Think there remains enough meteorological variables and synoptic and surface setup to keep inherited severe messaging and hazards. NCAR AI convective outlooks and CSU machine learning probs (10 to 25 percent) validate this thinking. Onset timing still looks to be around noon Friday and persist through at late as daybreak Saturday. Damaging winds gusts, a tornado or two and some small hail can't be ruled out. NAM is a touch more aggressive with more veering and clockwise curving hodographs, so don't want to downplay some tornado potential (albeit lower than damaging winds). Tornado potential will be maximized in line orthogonal northeast bowing segments.

Broad southwesterly flow and moist advection will drive PWs into the 1.7 to 1.9 range, 850mb dewpoints near 14C/Theta E near 330K. This will drive broad training and rainfall accumulation totals. Maddox conceptual model somewhat fits the mean synoptic and surface pattern. Some locally heavy rainfall may be possible in northern to northeast Mississippi, potentially along and north of Highway 82 into the Golden Triangle to TN Valley south of the frontal boundary. Some locally heavy rain of 2 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts are not fully ruled out. However, recent dryness should limit most flash flooding concerns so holding off messaging just yet.

Much cooler and more seasonable conditions are expected next weekend into the following week. Strong surface high (i.e.~1035mb) will dive southward, stretching across the Gulf Coast to ArkLaTex to Mid South region into early next week. A likely freeze into the following work week on Monday and Tuesday mornings. NBM probabilities exceed potential for a decent freeze into the following week (60 to 90 percent below freezing and 40 to 70 percent below 28F). This seasonably cool pattern will be short lived as shortwave ridging and moderation build into the mid portions of next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Areas of dense fog and patches of low stratus will continue to develop through 09Z when prevailing IFR to LIFR conditions are expected at most sites through 15Z Wednesday. Conditions improve through the day Wednesday, prevailing VFR. Winds will be light, generally under 15kts and southwesterly through the TAF period. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 58 77 64 / 0 0 10 50 Meridian 75 56 76 62 / 0 0 10 40 Vicksburg 74 58 78 64 / 0 0 20 50 Hattiesburg 79 60 80 64 / 0 10 10 40 Natchez 77 60 79 65 / 0 0 20 60 Greenville 69 56 74 65 / 0 0 30 60 Greenwood 71 56 76 64 / 0 0 20 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.