textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible this afternoon into early evening

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue through the weekend, peaking Sunday into Monday.

- We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

The forecast has been updated to include the potential for severe thunderstorms mainly this afternoon into early evening. Regional radars were lit up to our southwest already this morning with a line of severe storms. This activity was associated with an MCV over southwest Louisiana that is expected to move into our CWA this afternoon during peak heating. Considering our warm moist airmass and further destabilization with daytime heating, severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will occur that may lead to minor runoff issues due to the recent rainfall that has occurred over the last several days. Also, a brief tornado cannot be ruled out either with cells ahead of the main line or within the line itself. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Today through next Friday...

Current early morning radar scans show a cluster of showers and t- storms across portions of northeast LA moving into MS from the west. Heavy rainfall along with flash flood threats will be continue to be the primary focus across our forecast area today through the weekend as model guidance continues to highlight a lingering moist convergence axis across the southeast CONUS. PWAT values up to 2.0 inches in the region are near max values for late May, which will support high rain rates for the days ahead. SPC Ensemble Viewer continues to show a strong QPF signal across most of our CWA. No changes have been made to the flash flood graphic for late Saturday afternoon/Saturday night timeframe and an "Elevated" risk for flash flooding will continued to be advertised primarily for areas west of the MS River. Likewise, the "Limited" flash flooding threat messaging will continue for areas west of I-55.

The forecast messaging remains on track heading into early next week. Model guidance continues to show a persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern that remains anchored over central and eastern CONUS. This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high moisture content, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift to help initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall. Sunday into Monday will have the best potential for a widespread heavy rainfall threat due to a slow moving upper level low pressure system interacting with the very moist airmass over the area. An "Elevated" risk for flooding will continue to be advertised for western/southern portions of the area for Sunday.

Given the deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS ridge, the overall environment does not appear favorable for severe storms. With that in mind, a few strong to isolated marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. Storm chances will persist across the area heading into the late week. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Isolated SHRA in parts of the forecast area to start the TAF period, as well as areas of MVFR to IFR ceilings. Conditions should improve to prevailing VFR by around 16Z, with increasing chances for SHRA and TSRA across the forecast area. Best timing for thunder impacts has been included in the TAFs. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 86 68 81 69 / 50 60 90 80 Meridian 86 67 83 68 / 70 60 80 80 Vicksburg 86 68 80 68 / 50 50 90 80 Hattiesburg 86 69 82 70 / 80 50 90 70 Natchez 86 68 80 69 / 80 70 100 80 Greenville 84 68 81 68 / 60 60 80 80 Greenwood 85 67 83 68 / 50 60 90 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.