textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues into the weekend.

- A pattern favorable for flash flooding develops early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 814 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Rest of this evening...

The region remains parked under mean ridging at the aloft and at the surface, with dry moisture profiles across the Gulf states similar to yesterday (precipitable water generally around 1.5 inches). Warm, southerly return flow has kept a hot and humid day with sunny skies and continuing into early evening. A frontal zone will sag south after midnight towards the Mid South to Delta region. This will cause some increased moist ascent and convergence, coupled with deeper moisture, for increased clouds and maybe a shower around daybreak in the Highway 82 and Delta regions. Persistence environment is on tap overnight (i.e. southerly return flow and elevated boundary layer moisture with increased clouds in the north). Lows will be seasonably warm, some 5F to 12F above (72F to 76F southeast of the Natchez Trace while 77F to 79F to the northwest). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Tonight through next Wednesday...High levels of heat and humidity will remain the story heading into this upcoming weekend. With highs climbing into the 90s through Sunday and dew points well into the 70s, afternoon heat index readings will be between 100-110F each day. This dangerous heat stress has resulted in a "Heat Advisory" being hoisted for a portion of the CWA Friday and Saturday. This advisory could be extended into Sunday, with some changes in the layout of the affected counties/parishes possible.

Although the heat tapers off during the start of the new work week, moisture will be aplenty across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values hovering around 2.5 inches. This, as a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section resulting in a front dropping south into the forecast area and stalling, will set the stage for multiple bouts of heavy rain moving across the region.

Currently a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area next Monday through Wednesday as both high rainfall rates and training of convection could result in flash flooding. While this is still several days out, please continue to monitor the latest forecast as categorical adjustments to the threat area will likely be made, with a possible "Flash Flood Watch" needed for portions of, if not all of, the forecast area during that timeframe. /19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 814 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Scattered cumulus deck are ongoing across the forecast area, with VFR conditions expected to prevail through the TAF period. Some brief MVFR visibility reductions cannot be ruled out between 12/11-13Z at PIB and HBG, with brief stratus possible at both and also HEZ. Confidence remains low, with persistence leaning towards less likely, so added temporary reductions. Light winds shift from southerly to westerly into Friday. A few rain showers or isolated storms cannot be ruled out in the Highway 82 corridor (GWO and GTR) but confidence is too low to introduce in the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 76 94 77 94 / 0 10 10 20 Meridian 74 95 76 95 / 0 10 10 30 Vicksburg 76 94 77 94 / 0 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 73 94 76 95 / 0 10 10 20 Natchez 75 95 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 78 92 77 94 / 10 20 10 20 Greenwood 77 93 76 95 / 0 40 30 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018- 019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ009- 016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ075.