textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Updated short-term weather elements through the daytime tomorrow. Cleaned up POPs to reflect current trends. Low-amplitude shortwave trough north of our region is pulling off to the east, with the system's cold front lagging slowly behind as it dips into our forecast area tonight. In the warm air ahead of the front, low clouds and drizzle or a few showers remain possible into the morning hours tomorrow. Clearing skies tomorrow should actually allow temps to warm back into the upper 70s and lower 80s at most sites tomorrow. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Through this weekend: Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are still ongoing across the southern and eastern portions of MS. Despite continued moist advection and some breaks in the clouds, instability remains rather weak across most of the area, and storm intensity has remained in check. Heading through the remainder of the afternoon, with increasing breaks in the clouds over south and southeast MS and given sufficiently strong deep shear, there is still a window of potential for a stronger storm or two. However, as has been the case all along, the severe weather threat is quite low. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard with any stronger storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also possible, and a few spots have picked up 1-2" so far, but even the potential higher end localized storm total amounts are unlikely to result in flash flooding.

As we go into this evening, the convection that has been the focus for much of today will shift into AL, and the new area of focus for development will be along and ahead of the approaching cold front. Given somewhat weak forcing, precip coverage along the front will be more limited than the activity over south/east MS earlier today. There had appeared to be some potential for convection tonight across north MS to be robust enough to maintain the marginal severe threat into the overnight, but latest guidance has been quite meager even in that area, so we do not plan to locally highlight a severe threat beyond sunset. Isolated thunder is still a possibility, however. Otherwise, showers will generally weaken through Saturday morning, with considerable cloudiness and only light showers and sprinkles persisting into the day Saturday. Patchy fog is possible ahead of the front tonight, but with steady wind expected throughout the overnight, the odds of dense fog are far more questionable than previous nights this week. Behind the front, dry and cooler (albeit still above normal) conditions will exist into Sunday. /DL/

Next week (Monday-Thursday): As shortwave ridge builds eastward to start the work week, a more potent cold core low aloft will be moving out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains. Sharp jet energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong southwesterly shear (35-50kts) will set up but remain mostly line- parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 62-67F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With southwesterly mean bulk shear, limited residence time of warm sector and less favorable timing generally closer to the diurnal minimum, this looks to be short duration potential. However, can't fully rule out some low end (non-zero) strong to severe potential Monday night into Tuesday. There are some differences in amplitude of the filling closed low aloft/shortwave, with the Euro slightly digging a little more. This will affect how long rain chances persist another 24-36 hours. Rain totals will be sufficient, around 1.5 to 2 inches (locally higher in convection or areas of training in line-parallel storms). However, recent dryness and limited preceding rain accumulation Friday limits confidence and holding off in HWO. Synoptic discontinuity exists, with with Euro more progressive and amplitude situated further north but stronger ascent and eastward propagation, while GFS more sharp cold core over the Great Lakes/northern Plains by midweek and continued southwesterly flow and rain chances later Wednesday. Blended rain chances look on track but may be a touch too slow. Regardless, 1028-1030mb surface high will bring drier (PWs around quarter inch) and seasonably cooler conditions into late next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mostly VFR conditions to start the TAF period, with a few SHRA and TSRA continuing to move across the forecast area. Overall measurable rain chances will decrease at the TAF sites through 12Z, but DZ and BR should remain possible through 15Z Saturday. IFR to LIFR conditions are expected by 10Z-12Z at sites along and south of Interstate 20. Low stratus and any BR or FG should lift and mix to prevailing VFR by 17Z. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 66 79 51 71 / 20 10 0 0 Meridian 64 79 50 73 / 20 10 0 0 Vicksburg 65 79 51 71 / 30 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 82 53 77 / 20 10 0 0 Natchez 66 80 51 73 / 20 10 0 0 Greenville 60 75 50 68 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 61 77 50 70 / 20 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.