textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase further on Friday.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected Saturday and Sunday, along with heavier downpours.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Tonight through next Wednesday...Moisture will subtly increase across the region as southerly flow at the surface and aloft has returned. Rain chances will increase further on Friday, with good chances continuing through the upcoming weekend, before backing down during the first part of next week. The best rain chances through this forecast period will again come Saturday and Sunday. This is when the presence of a weakening trough will be most observed across the forecast area, as ridging aloft flattens and gets nudged more to the east of the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This setup, coupled with added ascent from the sub-tropical jet just to our north, and daytime heating creating an unstable airmass, will yield mainly afternoon showers and storms developing across the forecast area, with some activity lingering into the evening hours each day.

At the moment, these storms are not expected to be severe. However, some gusty winds can't be ruled out with the more intense thunderstorms. Due to the very dry soil conditions across the area and overall rainfall being spread out over multiple days, widespread flash flooding isn't expected. However, localized heavy downpours in a short amount of time and the potential for some training of convection, could result in the ponding of water on roads and in low- lying and poor drainage areas, again especially Saturday and Sunday.

Rain chances will begin to decrease from northwest to southeast Monday into mid-week. A cold front will shift southeast through the CWA Monday. Cool dry high pressure will build into the forecast area in this front's wake through mid-week. Currently while rain chances will come to an end across much of the area, some isolated showers will remain possible across mainly Southeast Mississippi in the vicinity of the front as it stalls across the north central gulf. This scenario will result in cooler drier conditions across the forecast area as we begin the new work week. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR flight categories are ongoing with some lower clouds (SCT to BKN) in the 4-6kft range and southerly surface winds, some sustained up to 15mph and gusts up to 25mph at times. This gusty wind will persist into early evening (01/20Z Thursday to 02/00Z Friday). SHRA remain possible in central and south-southeast TAF sites through the afternoon to early evening, while isolated TSRA cannot be ruled out. Low stratus, with ceilings falling to MVFR to worst case IFR, are possible overnight. Timing is mainly after 02/09-11Z Friday and lasting through around 14-15Z before lifting to VFR. This will be the most likely at central to south-southeast TAF sites. Light SHRA will redevelop in southeast sites just prior to the end of the 18Z TAF cycle. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 71 92 70 88 / 10 30 20 60 Meridian 69 91 69 87 / 0 40 30 60 Vicksburg 71 92 70 88 / 20 20 30 60 Hattiesburg 70 91 70 87 / 10 80 40 80 Natchez 72 93 70 88 / 10 30 10 70 Greenville 73 91 69 86 / 10 30 20 40 Greenwood 71 92 69 88 / 0 20 30 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.