textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress (limited to elevated) today.

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for portions of the area both today & Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Today through next Friday...Sub-tropical ridging will weaken across the region this weekend. This will yet again allow troughing/low pressure aloft to become the primary weather feature across the region through much of the forecast period. Beginning today, rain chances will begin increasing across the forecast area, with very good chances continuing each day through at least the middle of next week.

Still, and at least for today, hot humid conditions will exist areawide as highs climb into the middle 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the 70s, will again yield another afternoon of heat index values climbing up to near 105F. After today, with the better rain chances forecast through at least the middle of next week, the potential for dangerous heat stress will be squashed.

With a bit more of a northwest flow aloft setting up across the region this weekend, attention will need to be paid upstream for any complex of storms that could potentially affect the CWA. The first of such looks to come late this afternoon into this evening as a complex is currently progged to drop south and potentially into far northern portions of the area. As a result, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms resides across northern portions of the area from late this afternoon into this evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, although heavy downpours and frequent lightning can both be expected.

As a frontal boundary tries to settle into the region late Sunday into early week, we'll again maintain good chances for showers and storms across the area. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable airmass will continue to reside across the CWA. Another "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will again exist across much of the CWA Sunday afternoon and evening as a result. Again, both heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected with convection.

Although this boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass, these rain chances will persist into at least Wednesday. While severe storms currently aren't forecast after Sunday, given the again overall continued unstable environment, the most intense storms could still produce gusty winds, along with heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

Finally come Thursday and continuing into Friday, ridging aloft reasserting itself over the region from the east is progged to lessen said rain chances late in the forecast period. However, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to increased heat stress conditions across portions of the forecast area. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, under few to scattered (FEW-SCT) cumulus deck between 5-7kft (timing of development during peak diurnal heating during the mid morning to afternoon hours) with increased higher clouds after 12/00Z Sunday. Afternoon SHRA and TSRA cannot be ruled out near PIB, HBG and HEZ, but probs (10 to 20 percent) still remain too low to introduce in the 12Z TAF cycle. Boundary to the north will sink south tonight, increasing chances of SHRA (40 to 70 percent) into the evening hours after 12/05Z Sunday near GLH to GWO and after 12/08Z Sunday at GTR. TSRA cannot be ruled out during this time. Light southwesterly winds will be the norm (sustained less than 10mph and highest gusts up to 15mph in Delta near GLH and GWO). Surface winds may decouple near calm and variable overnight before becoming westerly into Sunday afternoon. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 95 75 89 72 / 10 20 90 70 Meridian 95 75 90 72 / 10 10 70 70 Vicksburg 94 76 90 72 / 10 30 80 80 Hattiesburg 96 76 91 73 / 20 10 80 70 Natchez 95 75 91 73 / 20 10 80 70 Greenville 94 75 90 72 / 0 80 50 40 Greenwood 95 74 90 72 / 10 70 60 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.