textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat stress will continue to be a concern over much of the area today and Friday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 759 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Rest of this evening into tonight...

The region remains on the eastern periphery of deep anticyclone ridge centered near west TX and southern AZ and large scale troughing along the Atlantic seaboard and East Coast. This has driven a stationary frontal boundary centered across the Interstate 20 corridor. With continued compression south of the front and thermal warmth, dangerous heat has continued into the current hour. The previous heat advisory just expired at the top of the hour but heat concerns will persist the next couple of hours. With deep moisture (2.2 to 2.5 inch PWs) centered along the stationary front, scattered to numerous showers and storms have developed today. Northwest flow has driven in a few shortwaves that, combined with frontal convergence, helped sparked the convective coverage today. Mid level lapse rates were not too high (vertical totals around 23C) but low level lapse rates and high boundary layer dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s was driving high SBCAPE/MLCAPE (around 3500 to 5000 J/kg). This was helping some stronger storms at times with locally heavy rain as well. This convection will wind down over the next couple of hours at most. There will not be much relief overnight with seasonable warmth, some 4F to 6F above (73F to 76F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Through Friday: Unfortunately, the relief from the dangerous heat stress has been delayed some, and a heat advisory has been extended through Friday and now includes the entire area. The oppressive heat has maintained today over most of the area as boundary layer humidity is peaking at the worst time in association with moisture pooling associated with a weak surface boundary over our area. High dewpoints combined with temperatures rising well into the 90s is sending heat index values to around 110, but will say that scattered convective precipitation will hopefully help to reduce some of the heat, or at least keeping it from reaching more dangerous levels, as we go through the remainder of the afternoon. Expect a general repeat of today's weather for Friday with fairly high coverage of diurnally driven convection, and have maintained the elevated heat threat graphic. /EC/

Saturday Onwards: The long-term forecast remains on track. Increased chances for convective activity and cloud coverage will take hold due to the surface confluence from the aforementioned front, which could provide a few degree dip, thus mitigating heat threat concerns. With upper flow becoming more northerly and northwesterly during this time frame, we will see the potential for one or two convective complexes moving into the area or developing over the area. This will result in continued higher diurnal rain chances heading into the weekend. Going into early next week, conditions become less favorable for convective coverage. In terms of sensible weather, we'll see rain chances diminish and heat potentially rebuild some, but it should remain below what we've seen over the last few days. /OAJ/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 759 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions exist at all TAF sites, but the occasional SHRA or TSRA could restrict visibility and bring brief gusts in excess of 30 to 40mph at times. Convection should wind down around 31/02Z at most, with quiet overnight period. Winds will weaken and become light and variable, with some clouds overnight. The only exception could be near MEI where the occasional lowered stratus cannot be ruled out overnight. However, not confident to put actual restrictions in the 00Z TAF cycle. Light westerly wind, with occasional gusts higher than 10 to 15mph, will be the norm into Friday afternoon. SHRA and TSRA potential peak again tomorrow afternoon, generally after 31/19 through the end of the TAF period. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 93 75 93 / 20 60 20 20 Meridian 74 91 74 91 / 40 70 40 50 Vicksburg 75 94 76 93 / 10 40 20 20 Hattiesburg 76 91 75 92 / 20 50 20 30 Natchez 75 95 75 94 / 10 10 10 10 Greenville 75 95 76 94 / 20 40 40 30 Greenwood 74 93 75 93 / 10 60 40 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Friday for ARZ074-075.