textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for the entire portions of the area into tonight.

- "Limited Threat" (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding into tonight.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today through Saturday night: A frontal boundary sinking into the region from the north is yielding more scattered to widespread showers and storms across the CWA. Due to the very humid and unstable environment across the region, in addition to some steep mid-level lapse rates (6-6.3 C/km), isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning can both be expected with any of today's convection, and have added a limited threat HWO graphic to account for some flash flood potential as moisture convergence will peak along the I-20 corridor this evening. I

While this frontal boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass each day, solid chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast into at least Wednesday. While severe storms currently aren't forecast after today, given the again overall setup across the region, a few storms could become intense enough Monday through Wednesday to produce some gusty winds. Once again, both heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected with any convection.

Finally, Thursday into the start of next weekend, ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the middle 90s Saturday. This also currently looks to bring back some concern for increased heat stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast. /EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A mix of flight conditions as showers/storms move across sites. Once rainfall ends, conditions will return to VFR. Low ceilings will be possible between 08-13Z Monday resulting in MVFR/possible IFR conditions. Showers/storms will return after 18-20Z, reducing flight conditions at affected sites. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 71 87 71 / 60 50 60 40 Meridian 88 70 86 70 / 60 60 80 40 Vicksburg 88 71 88 71 / 50 30 50 20 Hattiesburg 85 72 87 71 / 70 30 70 20 Natchez 86 71 88 71 / 70 20 60 10 Greenville 90 72 88 72 / 20 20 50 20 Greenwood 91 71 89 71 / 40 40 70 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.