textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a low chance (~15-25%) for minor impacts from light freezing rain over far northwest portions of the area this morning and again tonight. - Widespread rain is expected today through tonight, and this will be followed by cold and dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of the week with additional rain events Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Today through tonight: Cold and wet conditions are expected today, and we still have at least a small risk for minor ice impacts associated with light freezing rain over far northwest portions of the area. A significant shortwave trough is expected to move across the Southern Plains today and into our region tonight. Moist isentropic ascent is underway as return flow has developed above a shallow cold polar airmass entrenched across the region, and we should see light rain/drizzle increase across western portions of the area early this morning. Over far northwest portions of the forecast area (mainly Ashley and Bolivar counties), surface temperatures will be near to just below freezing as precip chances begin, and this will raise the potential for a few slick spots on bridges/overpasses, which have chilled down in the recent cold. Otherwise, all rain is expected later today through this evening with a few locations potentially receiving as much as an inch of rainfall. A brief change-over back to light wintry precip can't be ruled out over northwest portions of the area late tonight in a strong cold advection pattern as the system departs, but no significant impacts are expected if this does occur in our area.

Tuesday through Wednesday night look drier and quite cold, especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow temperatures to fall well into the 20s for most of the area, then modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a good bit by Wednesday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday through Sunday: The next significant shortwave trough will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding the potential for a couple of rounds of moderate to locally rainfall in the Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should be suppressed to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather potential should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued chilly airmass. On the northern side of the system, we'll need to monitor for additional light freezing rain threats due to the influx of fresh polar air. Otherwise, drier conditions are mostly likely to return for the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. /EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

TAF period begins with VFR/MVFR/IFR flight conditions with northeasterly winds between 5-10 kts across sites. Increasing cloud cover is expected throughout the period. -RA is expected to moves into the area by the end of the period, resulting in MVFR/IFR flight conditions. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 50 32 46 26 / 90 90 10 0 Meridian 52 35 48 23 / 80 90 10 0 Vicksburg 46 30 46 27 / 90 90 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 41 53 28 / 60 90 10 0 Natchez 51 32 48 27 / 90 90 0 0 Greenville 38 30 41 26 / 80 80 0 0 Greenwood 42 30 43 25 / 90 90 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.