textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold temperatures are likely areawide Friday night through Sunday.

- Gusty gradient winds are expected Saturday.

- Colder than normal temperatures will continue into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Today through mid next week (Wednesday)...

Today through this weekend: Early this morning surface ridging is situated over the Gulf, with light to calm surface winds. Temperatures are falling quickly below freezing into the upper 20s across the region. Main concern this morning will be potential for patchy mist (BR) or freezing fog. Overall, the ongoing hazard graphic looks on track. Low level return flow will help dewpoints to increase into the mid 30s or so with seasonably cool high temperatures (45F to 50F in the Delta and Golden Triangle, while 50F to 58F to the south). Some high clouds will stream across the area today. Another round of patchy mist (BR) or freezing fog cannot be ruled out again tonight, but confidence is too low to add any HWO graphic.

Mean longwave trough is parked over a large portion of the nation, with ridging over the West coast of the CONUS. A shortwave trough analyzed over the Four Corners will eject towards the Plains and Southeast in the northwest flow. This will bring increased ascent as we move into late week, with potential of very light precip chances. However, confidence has decreased in coverage and should remain mostly dry. Any precip into Friday evening to early Saturday morning could be potential for shallow moisture in subfreezing environment, which would support light convective snow showers at most. There would be minimal impact if this occurs.

The aforementioned spoke of shortwave energy is in advance of a larger more potent gyre of potential vorticity over the Northern Plains, Great Lakes and Northeast. The western side of this is progged to intensify and swing southeast late week on Friday, with an anomalous closed low developing (525DM) in the TN Valley into the weekend on Saturday. This will drive a continental polar airmass deep from Canada southward into the CONUS (1045-1048mb) Friday afternoon into Saturday. This arctic shot of air will bring dangerous arctic cold Friday night and extending into the weekend. Temperatures will be nearly 20F to 30F below normal at times (lows in the teens and subfreezing highs on Saturday). Some temperature records may be in jeopardy, especially record cool highs Saturday for areas along and south of Interstate 20. In addition, hard freeze conditions are likely, beginning late Friday afternoon persisting through Sunday afternoon, with the subfreezing temperatures entire area in excess of 24hrs (30 to 40 hrs below). This will cause potential pipe burst concerns as we warm above freezing. Combined with nearly 8mb pressure gradient and low-level jet (40-45kts at 850mb and 925mb), gradient winds remain a concern (20 to 25mph sustained; 35 to 40mph gusts). HWO graphic for gradient winds remains valid. The gusty winds will only exacerbate the dangerous wind chills which will fall to single digits areawide Saturday morning, with sub-zero wind chills likely in north MS. The Extreme Cold Watch remains on track areawide, with no major adjustments needed to the HWO graphic. However, additional adjustments may be needed for any areas where ice storm response/recovery operations persist into the weekend. For any areas with continued icy/slick roadways and extended power outages, ensure to know your safety precautions with generators and keep warm the best you can this weekend. As the closed low swings east and aids development of potential East Coast winter storm, surface high drifts across temperatures will finally moderate above freezing Sunday afternoon, with a return to a gradual moderating pattern.

Next week (Monday through Wednesday): As arctic cold pattern shifts eastward, shortwave ridging will build out of the Plains into the southeast by Tuesday. Mean northwest flow will gradually shift more southwesterly flow and moist ascent. Precipitable water (PWs) will climb to around 1.0 to 1.25 inches. Combined with moist ascent, some rain chances are on tap at the end of the forecast next Wednesday. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Increasing chances for BR or FZFG at some locations between about 09Z and 14Z, with some ongoing at GLH. VFR conditions should prevail after any morning fog and stratus thin and lift. Light southerly winds under 10mph will prevail this afternoon to evening. /NF/DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 55 35 46 17 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 54 32 49 17 / 0 10 10 0 Vicksburg 53 34 43 18 / 0 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 58 36 55 22 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 57 35 46 19 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 47 31 38 16 / 0 10 0 0 Greenwood 51 32 41 15 / 0 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for ARZ074-075.