textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week.

- Isolated severe storms are possible in the northwest Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Through Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through the period with afternoon rain chances limited to the southern half of the CWA. Surface ridging from the east will remain across the Gulf coast states while our flow aloft remains southwesterly downstream of an upper level trough swinging across the Four Corners region. This will help maintain a warm moist airmass over our CWA. Latest PWATs were running just above an inch and three quarters with surface dew points being observed in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Wl start off with some patchy fog in the southeast but daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and mainly south of Interstate 20. The distinct diurnal nature of the convection will result in the convection dying off rapidly around sunset. The probabilities of fog development are lower for Tuesday morning but patchy light early morning fog is possible in the southeast again. /22/

Tuesday through Sunday:

A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +5-8 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well.

Precip chances ranging from 40% to 95% with greatest chances on Wednesday (95%) and Friday (90%) with 80-95% are likely. On Tuesday, the boundary gradually push into the area, interaction with the present deep-layer shear and CAPE near the MS Delta, may promote a few severe storms in the area. As a result, a 'Marginal' risk for severe weather will be possible over the MS Delta region Tuesday. A HWO graphic will be introduced to reflect the severe risk area.

As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and increasing rain chances Wednesday into the weekend. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 627 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

LIFR vsby was observed at HBG at 11z but a mix of MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail elsewhere cntrl and south while the northern TAF sites remain in VFR through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions are expected areawide and a gusty se-s wind 18-20kts wl develop by 16Z. These gusts will subside by 23Z. There is a low chance of isolated SHRA/TSRA in vcty of HEZ after 19Z and until 23Z. VFR conditions are expected to prevail in the north tonight but MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl cntrl and south again by 10Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 72 88 70 / 10 10 40 50 Meridian 88 70 89 68 / 10 0 20 30 Vicksburg 89 73 89 70 / 10 10 40 60 Hattiesburg 88 71 88 69 / 30 0 20 0 Natchez 89 73 89 71 / 30 20 50 60 Greenville 90 74 90 70 / 10 10 40 60 Greenwood 89 73 90 70 / 10 10 30 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.