textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels (limited to elevated) of heat today & Saturday.

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for portions of the area both Saturday & Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Today through next Thursday...As troughing exits the region, sub- tropical ridging will build into the forecast area today. This'll result in less rain chances across the forecast area, with only a stray shower or storm possible across far southern portions of the CWA this afternoon. However, hot humid conditions will persist as highs climb into the middle 90s. This, with dew points in the 70s, will continue to yield afternoon heat index values above the century mark across much of the area, with values reaching to near 108F possible across the northwest Delta region. As a result, I've issued a "Heat Advisory" there from 11 AM until 8 PM today. If indices look to climb higher than what's currently being advertised elsewhere, i.e. if they climb above 105F, this advisory could be expanded.

Over the upcoming weekend, the aforementioned sub-tropical ridge will weaken and slide further west of the forecast area. This will yet again allow troughing/low pressure aloft to become the primary weather feature across/near the CWA through much of the remainder of the forecast period. Beginning Saturday, rain chances will begin increasing across the forecast area, with very good chances continuing each day through at least the middle of next week.

In addition, with a bit more northwest flow aloft setting up across the region during the weekend, attention will need to be paid upstream for any complex of storms that could potentially affect the CWA. The first of such could come late Saturday as a complex is currently progged to drop southeast and potentially into far northern portions of the area. As a result, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms now resides in the vicinity of the Highway 82 corridor for late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms.

As a frontal boundary tries to settle into the region late Sunday into early week, we'll again maintain good chances for showers and storms across the area. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable airmass will continue to reside across the CWA. Another "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will again exist across much of the CWA on Sunday as a result.

Although this boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over/near the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass, these rain chances will persist into at least Wednesday. Of course with these better rain chances, some relief from the ongoing heat stress will exist Sunday through at least next Wednesday. Finally come Thursday, ridging aloft reasserting itself over the region from the east is progged to lessen said rain chances late next week. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions with a 10-15kt southwesterly wind will prevail through the forecast period at all TAF sites./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 95 75 90 / 10 30 30 80 Meridian 75 95 74 90 / 0 40 30 80 Vicksburg 77 94 76 90 / 0 20 30 70 Hattiesburg 76 95 75 91 / 10 40 20 80 Natchez 75 95 75 91 / 0 30 10 80 Greenville 77 95 76 90 / 0 30 50 80 Greenwood 76 95 75 90 / 0 40 60 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034- 035.

LA...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.