textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon and evening.

- Dangerous heat stress will persist across much of the area through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Another hot and humid afternoon is underway, with heat indices now in the 105-110F range across much of the northern 2/3rd of the area. Areas further south got a later start due to morning low clouds, but they are into the 100-105F range and climbing. A weak cold front is approaching from the north. Ahead of it, mesoanalysis indicates steepening low level lapse rates within a moist airmass. Scattered storms are beginning to develop in this regime and will continue to do so through later this afternoon. The aforementioned instability combined with increasing upper flow and strong DCAPE suggests a greater potential for damaging wind gusts with storms that develop today. We may also some of these storms organize into multicell clusters that might contribute to strong wind gusts along southward moving outflows. Don't be surprised to see some severe thunderstorm warnings later this afternoon. Coverage and intensity are expected to decrease quickly after sunset.

For Labor Day, the weak front will bring a brief spell of relatively drier air over parts of north MS and AR, potentially encroaching closer to the I-20 corridor during the day. While this could help to limit heat indices the farther north one goes in our area, it is still expected to be quite hot in these areas nevertheless. And further south, the humidity will remain; thus, another heat advisory has been posted for Monday across much of the area. The front will also help to limit rain chances across most of the area. However, south of the front there could be a repeat performance of today across central LA into south MS. At this point, it's unclear if storms would initiate in the Natchez- Hattiesburg corridor or just south of our area. Nevertheless, though there is currently no formal severe threat, we can't rule out damaging wind potential on Labor Day afternoon.

Tuesday through the end of the week: The weak front will wash out, with low level moisture recovering again areawide Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions will continue to be seasonably warm each day, and it's possible heat stress potential will be high enough for additional heat advisories in some areas, though forecast heat indices are looking more marginal than what has been experienced in recent days. Mainly diurnal convection will remain possible, initially focused midweek mainly across south MS and LA, but expanding northward through the end of the week. /DL/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered SHRA and TS are possible from mid afternoon through early evening today, with brief visby reductions and wind gusts up to 50 kt possible. A brief period of low clouds is possible around daybreak Monday morning across south MS and central LA. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 98 73 95 / 20 10 0 10 Meridian 73 99 73 94 / 20 10 10 10 Vicksburg 74 99 72 97 / 20 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 74 98 74 94 / 20 30 20 40 Natchez 74 98 73 97 / 20 20 10 10 Greenville 75 99 72 99 / 20 0 0 10 Greenwood 73 98 72 97 / 10 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-034- 035-040>043-047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.