textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms in eastern portions of the forecast area in the near term.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will continue through the weekend, peaking Sunday into Monday.

- We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

In the near term, the morning MCV responsible for a weak brief tornado in Hinds County and areas of heavy rainfall has moved off to the east, but a lingering moist convergence axis, located roughly along the I-59 and Hwy 45 corridors, has been the focus for renewed convective development during peak heating. Additional intense rainfall rates and strong updrafts are resulting in a renewed low-end severe/flash flood threats for the next few hours in those areas. Later tonight, we could see the nocturnal enhancement of ~ H850 winds and moisture transport support additional flash flood concerns. Following days of heavy rainfall, many locations are becoming more flood prone and sensitive to additional heavy rainfall, and so have continued the limited flash flood threat messaging in our HWO graphics through tonight.

Looking ahead, heavy rainfall threats will continue through the weekend and into next week as a persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern remains anchored over central and eastern CONUS. This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high moisture content, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift to help initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall. Once we get to about Sunday, a greater threat for flash flooding should evolve as a more favorable set-up and coupled upper level jet interaction team up with the very moist air to bring a more widespread heavy rainfall threat. As of now this appears it will be over mainly western/southern portions of the area and have maintained an "elevated" flood threat in this area.

Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic/shear profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS ridge, but as is the case in the near term, we'll need to monitor for marginal tornado risks given the potential for enhanced low level shear in the very moist air. As previously mentioned, it's difficult to find an end to this wet pattern in the guidance through most of the remainder of the month. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

A very humid airmass will maintain threats for MVFR/IFR category stratus through the weekend with ceilings most hazardous during the early morning hours. TSRA should be at their greatest threat during the peak heating hours, but could occur at just about any time of the day or night. Surface wind will be on the light side. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 85 68 81 / 40 70 70 100 Meridian 68 85 67 83 / 40 60 50 90 Vicksburg 67 85 68 80 / 50 60 80 90 Hattiesburg 69 86 69 82 / 50 70 60 90 Natchez 69 85 69 80 / 50 60 90 100 Greenville 66 84 68 80 / 40 60 70 80 Greenwood 66 85 67 82 / 50 60 80 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.