textproduct: Jackson
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern this weekend into early next week.
- a couple chances for severe storms in eastern portions of the area this weekend into next week cannot be ruled out.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
Through mid next week...
Our area will continue to be under the influence of a large upper ridge, which will tend to suppress convection for the remainder of the week and redirect systems to the east. It will also lock in heat, with increasing temperatures through the rest of this week and into next week. This is largely due to the west northwest flow which will reinforce an 850 thermal ridge over the area. This thermal ridge looks to peak on Tuesday with the axis situated over the area. Temperatures peak in the upper 90s to near 100. Confidence is certainly high enough to maintain heat messaging with an areawide "elevated". It is possible that portions of the area will experience significant heat stress next week, so stay tuned for updates on that.
Additionally, while the ridge is no doubt dominant, there does appear to be a little bit of weakening in the east in some guidance, enough to necessitate monitoring for potential easterly MCS or some other type of convection with sufficient flow for organization. While details remain uncertain, severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out this weekend in the southeast. Confidence is too low for details but generally the timing looks to be Saturday into Sunday if it does occur. There may be potential for more activity in the east by the middle of next week as a digging upper trough flattens the ridge briefly, placing our area on the eastern flank. This could set up a brief NW flow regime that leaves us more vulnerable to convective systems. /SAS/
AVIATION
(06Z TAFS) Issued at 157 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period. /NF/
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 91 74 93 75 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 92 73 94 75 / 10 10 10 0 Vicksburg 92 75 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 95 75 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 74 94 75 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 92 74 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 92 73 94 74 / 10 0 10 0
JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.
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