textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms continue overnight especially along and south of Interstate 20.

- Rain chances lessen into the weekend, with rain and storms mostly confined to Pine Belt and Interstate 59 corridor.

- Dangerous heat stress may return across the forecast area late this weekend before more possible next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Today through mid next week (Wednesday)...

Through this weekend: Shortwave disturbance early this morning is driving a complex of thunderstorms southward across the Interstate 20. This combined with stationary frontal zone, is driving moist convergence and southward sinking complex of storms. This still has some light west to northwesterly bulk shear (under 20kts) that could drive some organization overnight, but instability is waning and mostly elevated. Will have to continue to monitor potential to the south of the line and any areas that can become rooted more in line with any outflow boundary collision. Rainfall rates are heavy at times and backbuilding remains possible. Rain and storms will continue to be a concern in the afternoon hours, but will become less focused as this overnight convection may wipe out much in the way of redevelopment later. Lastly, heat will not be as much of a concern, but areas in the Highway 82 corridor could be seasonably warm in the low 90s, with some heat indices exceeding 100F. However, confidence in dangerous heat remains on the low side, so holding off on anything in the HWO.

As the upper trough lifts northeast and frontal zone shifts out of the area into the weekend, a cutoff upper low will form over the southeast to Atlantic seaboard and shift westward into the weekend. Rain and storm chances will continue to shift southeast into the Pine Belt into late week and weekend, with the Interstate 59 corridor the highest coverage (25 to 35 percent Friday to Saturday and 30 to 50 percent on Sunday). Mean ridge (595DM) will build over the Red River Valley area in the Southern Plains, with ridging encroaching in our area from the west. This will help high temps moderate back in the low to mid 90s (92F to 97F, with warmest conditions in the northwest Delta region). Heat stress will remain a low chance into the late weekend, with Sunday having some low probabilities.

Next week: Synoptic pattern will consist of mean ridge building out of the Red River Valley into the Mid MS River Valley, with an upper low sliding underneath the ridge into the Gulf Coast states. This will drive some deeper moisture, moist convergence and rain and storm chances in southeast of the Natchez Trace through mid next week (highest chances in the 25 to 45 percent range). Heat returns as highs moderate more into the mid 90s. With increasingly moist thermal profiles and higher PBL moisture, mixing will be less a concern (dewpoints holding in the 72F to 78F range). This will lead to potential dangerous heat from early through mid next week as heat indices peak near or in excess of 105F. HWO graphics may be needed (potential the lowest a "Limited" risk area) but timing is still several days away and could wait another forecast cycle or two before introduction. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 304 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Scattered to numerous SHRA and TSRA are ongoing across the area tonight before dwindling over the south through 27/12-16Z Thursday. Away from the TSRA, VFR conditions will continue through 27/09Z. After 27/09Z MVFR to LIFR cigs develop (GTR) and prevail until improving after 27/15-16Z. Some rain chances may redevelop this afternoon, but ongoing convection lower confidence of much in the way of development later today. Fog cannot be ruled out tonight, likely after the end of the 06Z TAF cycle. /DC/22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 90 70 93 68 / 70 20 10 10 Meridian 90 71 93 70 / 70 30 30 10 Vicksburg 90 70 93 68 / 50 20 10 0 Hattiesburg 88 71 92 70 / 80 20 30 10 Natchez 89 71 94 69 / 60 20 20 0 Greenville 94 71 94 68 / 20 10 10 0 Greenwood 93 70 94 67 / 20 10 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.