textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible into tonight; with a Slight Risk across the north and a Marginal Risk for severe storms over central and southern portions of the area.

- There is a Limited threat for dangerous heat stress today with heat index values peaking near 105 degrees.

- Seasonal temps (highs: low/mid 80s & lows: ranging in the 60s) and dry air will follow post frontal boundary Tuesday night.

- Rain potential will return over the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Through Tuesday: Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid level ridge axis to our west that was resulting in a northwest flow across the CWA. This northwest flow was supporting an MCS moving south across northern Alabama. The western portions of this MCS was spreading into our northeast most zones. Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail will be possible with this activity this afternoon. Elsewhere across the CWA microburst pulse severe storms are possible as local microburst checklist showed microbursts will be likely this afternoon considering the anticipated atmospheric parameters. In addition latest guidance still showed additional development across the northern portions of our CWA this evening along the boundary leftover by the current MCS. The main threat for severe through this evening will remain damaging wind gusts although hail and locally heavy downpours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our northeast this afternoon but an additional Watch or an expansion of the current Watch is possible this evening due to the potential of more organized convection dropping through our CWA. In addition, with the heat and humidity across the CWA away from convection, peak heat index values will be around 105F in may areas this afternoon. This area is outside of our northeast due to the ongoing convection.

It's possible the convection tonight will last past midnight across the southern portions of our CWA. Tuesday a >1028mb high will drop out of Canada and become centered over the Great Lakes region. This will bring cooler and drier air into the northern portions of our CWA. This will result in the highest heat indices and greatest rain chances across our southern zones Tuesday afternoon. /22/

Tuesday Night through Sunday:

Once the trough shifts south, the frontal boundary will push through the region Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will provide relief from the heat over the last few days as high/low temps feel closer to early June (near seasonal average). High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes, traversing southward over the week and provide a ridging pattern for our region. Heading into the weekend, the high will shift towards the east, winds will shift to the south/southeast, increasing humidity across the area. With increasing humidity, 40-75% rain chances return over the weekend with the greatest chances in the south/southwestern portion of the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

As a result of scattered convection ongoing across a good portion of the area, flight categories are and will continue to range from VFR to IFR conditions over the next few hours. As the evening wares on, convection will gradually subside, with a return to VFR flight categories overnight. Toward day break Tuesday, scattered low stratus and patchy ground fog will again be possible for a one to three hour period a some sites. This will again degrade categories to MVFR/IFR status, before again returning to VFR categories by late morning. Scattered convection will again be possible Tuesday afternoon for TAF sites mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will generally subside to calm this evening and overnight, except in and around thunderstorms where gusty winds can be expected. Winds on Tuesday will generally be from the north between 5-10 mph. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 90 68 82 / 20 40 10 0 Meridian 69 89 66 81 / 20 40 10 0 Vicksburg 72 90 69 84 / 30 30 10 10 Hattiesburg 71 91 68 81 / 40 60 30 20 Natchez 71 92 70 85 / 20 50 20 10 Greenville 71 88 66 84 / 50 30 0 0 Greenwood 70 88 65 84 / 60 20 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.