textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring showers across the area this evening, followed by a colder airmass.

- Periods of cold weather with mostly dry conditions can be expected through early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 840 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The region is off to a clear and cold start this morning under the lingering influence of high pressure. However, an organizing cold front draped from the Ozarks down to the Red River Valley will begin pushing into southeast AR and northwest MS this afternoon. Showers will break out ahead of this front, but it will make some headway into the area before that occurs around or shortly after sunset, so much of our MS Delta/southeast AR/northeast LA will miss out on the rain altogether with this system. Areas that do receive rain will see less than a quarter inch in most areas, but HREF suggests some localized amounts up to a half inch are possible. All in all, no big changes are planned to the near term forecast. /DL/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Our weather over the next week will be strongly influenced by a highly amplified longwave pattern that features a cold eastern CONUS trough. Within the larger scale pattern, a series of polar stream troughs will move quickly across the area resulting in a few cold air events and perhaps a winter weather threat or two as described below.

Today through tonight: Under mostly sunny skies with increasing southerly wind ahead of the next cold front, mild conditions can be expected today. There will be sufficient moisture transport and ascent for line of showers to develop ahead of the front after sunset roughly along the Natchez Trace corridor. These showers will bring a swath of light rainfall (generally less than half an inch) for the southeast half of the forecast area as the cold front moves through, then colder and drier conditions will follow.

This weekend: After an uncertain stretch in the forecast guidance concerning the potential for a light snowfall event over southeast portions of the area, there is now good agreement among the NWP/AI model solutions for the development of a frontal wave and associated precip swath in the northern to be well to our south and east. Therefore, confidence has increased for any significant rain/snow to miss our area, and only trace amounts of snowfall at most could affect the I-59 corridor with this system. Otherwise, the main story will be very chill conditions returning for Saturday night into Sunday.

Monday through Thursday: Forecast confidence is high for continued cold weather as we go through mid week. Whether or not the cold temperatures reach cold advisory thresholds is still uncertain, but as of now, dangerous levels of cold are not be explicitly indicated in the forecast. Later next week, we should see at least a brief stretch of warmer and wetter conditions. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1136 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the majority of the TAF period, though brief categorical reductions to ceilings and visibility are possible as showers occur with a cold front pushing across the area this afternoon into tonight. Otherwise, S-SW winds will be gusty at times today ahead of the front and will shift to the NW behind the front late this afternoon through tonight. Winds may become gusty again during the daytime Saturday. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 37 51 24 / 10 70 0 0 Meridian 63 37 51 24 / 0 80 10 0 Vicksburg 68 35 51 24 / 10 40 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 43 56 30 / 0 70 10 10 Natchez 71 38 53 26 / 0 50 10 0 Greenville 63 33 46 23 / 10 20 0 0 Greenwood 64 33 48 21 / 20 40 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.