textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth and increasing rain chances can be expected this week.

- A greater chance for showers and storms could materialize this weekend, but the forecast for significant rainfall is uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Through tonight...

Warmer than normal through the period but decent rain chances are expected today especially over the southeast. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. Flow around this feature will help increase moisture over our CWA. The 00Z Tue JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.40inches. Our PWATs will increase to near an inch and a half. This moisture combined with daytime heating an a weak upper level trough axis will lead to shower and thunderstorm development with the greatest chance over our southeast this afternoon. This convective activity is expected to rapidly dissipate shortly after sunset. /22/

Through Next Wednesday...

Overall, strong high pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east during much of this time, while high pressure aloft gradually becomes more positioned to the east of the region. The resulting increased warmth and moisture across the region will lead to mainly diurnally driven showers and storms developing each afternoon through at least mid-week. While flow from the south is weak, convection that develops across this area could become intense enough to produce some gusty winds, along with some high rainfall rates with slow moving convection.

The better, more widespread, rain chances across the forecast area currently look to come Thursday night into Friday, and again Saturday night into Easter Sunday. While neither of these days look to be complete washouts at the moment, better chances for showers and storms exist at these times due to it being more driven by shortwaves trying to move through the region. At present, the system Thursday night will struggle to make headway through the forecast area as high pressure holds firmly in place. However over the weekend, models are currently in agreement that a stronger shortwave will drag a cold front into and through the CWA. If that scenario verifies, not only will it result in rain chances over the entire area, it'll also bring an airmass change to the region in its wake. /OAJ/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

MVFR cigs wl prevail areawide until 17Z. IFR cigs are briefly psbl in the south 12-14Z. Otherwise, MVFR wl improve to VFR after 17Z. By 17Z a gusty 17-20kts south wind will develop west and cntrl before subsiding by 23Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be psbl this morning with greatest coverage during the aftn and across south MS. After 09Z Wed MVFR cigs wl develop and possibly lower to IFR by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 82 64 84 65 / 60 10 50 0 Meridian 82 62 83 62 / 50 10 70 0 Vicksburg 85 65 86 66 / 40 10 20 0 Hattiesburg 83 65 83 64 / 70 10 70 0 Natchez 85 65 86 67 / 40 10 40 0 Greenville 85 65 86 67 / 10 10 10 10 Greenwood 84 65 86 67 / 30 10 20 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.