textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly conditions continue early this week with perhaps some fog potential tonight.

- Dry and milder conditions are most likely as we go through mid to late week and into the weekend.

- Colder weather may return by Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight through Tuesday: In the near term, a low level cold advection pattern promises to maintain chilly conditions through Tuesday night, and with that, there is a lot uncertainty regarding how quickly the stratus may erode as we go into tonight. High res model guidance suggest the low level cold advection should shut down at most locations overnight, resulting in a greater chance for stratus dissipation, but with little mixing of the boundary layer this afternoon in the feeble early Dec sun, we're leaning toward a more pessimistic low cloud forecast.

With greater cloud cover, temperatures would stay above freezing at many locations, and not get quite as cold as currently forecast by model blends. Also, there would also be less opportunity for fog formation. On the flip side, in the case of earlier clearing, we would have colder lows and greater potential for fog, but forecast confidence is too low and the dense fog threat too conditional to formally message it at this point. The bottom line here is to expect a cloudier and not as cold/foggy forecast tonight, but monitor for earlier clearing and forecast changes that would bring.

Tuesday night through the weekend: Dry northwest flow aloft will be the primary weather influence in our area, and this will result in seasonable temperatures with little if any chance for rainfall as we finish up this week and go through the weekend. There may be a more dramatic warm-up Friday/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front, with much chillier temperatures following the frontal passage as we go into Sunday into early next week. Forecast confidence for temperatures in the longer range remains quite low due to large variance in the global ensembles and poor run-to-run consistency with the details in our area. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The current cold advection stratus scenario will make for a challenging ceiling/vsby forecast as we go through tonight into Tuesday. Given the continued cold advection and lower sun angle bringing less chance for erosion of the deck this afternoon, will keep the area TAFs pessimistic, and hang onto MVFR/IFR category ceilings through tonight and even into Tuesday morning. With that said, there is at least a small chance that ceilings will clear enough this evening to promote the potential for fog later tonight. Any stratus/fog that makes it to Tue morning should improve quickly by late morning. /EC/CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 31 57 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 28 56 36 64 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 32 56 39 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 32 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 32 58 39 67 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 31 52 41 60 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 30 54 40 61 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.