textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry weather will be the general rule through Tuesday night.

- Milder and wetter conditions are expected Wednesday into Thursday.

- We are monitoring for the potential of winter weather and dangerous cold this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

A large polar low centered over Hudson Bay will shift southward over the next few days, and this will eventually allow very cold air to surge southward into the Deep South region as we go into the weekend.

Today through Tuesday night: Polar flow into the eastern CONUS will maintain a steady supply of cold air for our forecast area. Cold and dry conditions will be the general rule with temperatures and wind chill readings not quite meeting "cold weather advisory" levels.

Wednesday through Thursday night: The polar stream will retreat temporarily northward as we go through mid week. A warm advection pattern will develop as a result, and this will bring milder temperatures and an increase in shower chances, especially for late Wed into Wed night. As of now, rainfall totals are not expected to be extraordinary, and instability should not support much in the way of thunderstorm activity.

Next weekend: Confidence for arctic air to surge southward into our region has increased in the past 24 hrs. There is also increasing confidence for a winter weather event as a frontal wave develops along the arctic air boundary and results in the formation of widespread precipitation, including the potential for freezing rain/sleet/snow. Prior to precip development, NWP guidance show a faster progression to the front, and this allows a mix of precip types to envelop much of our forecast area as we go from Friday night through Saturday, but some of the AI guidance are a good bit slower with the front and the precip type changes, and therefore keep winter weather threats farther north.

With this in mind, will hold off on being very specific with messaging winter weather threats and potential impacts, but will provide a general message about the overall increase in threats. Will say that is unusual to have so much agreement among ensembles this far out in time, so confidence in both the cold/winter weather occurring are at least above average for this time frame. Any time we are dealing with a tight baroclinic zone such as the one anticipated next weekend, it doesn't take much difference to change weather details dramatically, so all interests are encouraged to monitor for updates as we get closer in time. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail over the period. Expect northerly winds up to 10 kts and clear skies. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 53 27 53 35 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 53 24 51 30 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 53 27 54 37 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 58 29 56 35 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 57 29 57 39 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 45 24 49 35 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 47 24 51 33 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.