textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no clear signal for rain chances until late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Overall, the transition away from summer is appearing in the synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader region. Split flow is noted in the guidance into next week, and the southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will carry embedded shortwave troughs and add more flow and shear to the atmosphere. Very minor perturbations may bring a small chance for showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to allow much. Either way, the conditions through the weekend into early next week will be drier without concern for humidity causing dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge and a more full-latitude trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS. Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on the timing of these features is very low. Guidance ensembles are settling in on a solution that brings less rainfall threat Wednesday, but greater potential by the end of the week. We will continue to monitor this potential system as it marks a change from the stagnant summer pattern to a potentially more potent cool-season pattern. There will be significant subtropical moisture related to east Pacific tropical cyclone activity that could eventually support some locally heavy rainfall, but NCAR AI-NWP guidance remain bearish with any severe probabilities. /OAJ/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR flight categories are forecast to prevail at area TAF sites during this 18Z forecast period. Winds this afternoon will have an easterly component, and range between 5-10 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 62 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 64 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 63 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 65 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 61 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.