textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered severe storms with potential for hail up to golfball size are possible this afternoon and early evening.

- Fog development likely in the southeastern region of the CWA (south of I-20 and west of I-55, in general)

- Another round of severe storms is possible Wednesday afternoon and evening.

- Yet another round of severe/strong storms is possible next Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Today...

Strong to severe storms are likely today as mid to upper level shortwave and associated speed max swings from west to east across the area with favorable timing to kick off showers and thunderstorms through afternoon into the evening. We'll likely see a peak in activity between 3 PM and 8 PM with storms diminishing in coverage and intensity after that time with the risk becoming low well before midnight.

The severe weather ingredients today consist of the above mentioned impetus for storm development/ascent coupled with anomalously warm and moist conditions near the surface. Current observations around the area indicate temperatures are already in the mid 70s F with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s F. Mostly cloudy skies will inhibit warming to some degree today but warm southerlies and filtered sunlight should allow us to warm into the lower 80s F for afternoon highs for areas south of Highway 82. One caveat would be for areas (mostly along and north of Highway 82) that receive the earliest showers or storms--temperatures could be held in check a bit more. Southerlies are also transporting deep moisture northward and the relatively limited sunlight/mixing will allow dewpoint temperatures to rise without mixing out as easily, which will compensate for the slightly cooler temperatures we might see otherwise.

The net result is SB/MUCAPE values that are already in the 1500- 2000 J/KG range and should the near-70 F dewpoint values progged by guidance such as the HRRR verify into more of our area, instability values could reach into the 2500-2750 J/KG range in a few locations.

In terms of shear, low level winds from the surface through around 850 mb show moderate clockwise turning with height but lack substantial speeds resulting in limited low level helicity. Deep layer, effective shear will however be supportive of severe storms with 50-55 KT of bulk shear likely. Long hodographs result with storm motions likely south of due east within the strongest shear channel across the northern half of the area. Isolated/discrete storms that develop within the warm sector (generally south of I- 20), will initially move northeastward and will generally turn more east as they progress through the afternoon. While the tornado chance is low this afternoon, if we were to see a storm display a period of briefly stronger rotation/organization, it may be in the vicinity of where these two storm mode/motion regimes intersect as warm air advection convective elements move into and merge with the storms further north that exhibit the expected prevailing NW to SE storm motions. Interactions between these storm elements and the boundaries they generate will be primary targets of interest for sudden, likely brief, spin-ups.

With all of this in mind, the forecast calls for HAIL as the primary hazard with sizes that could reach Golfballs. Storms of this intensity are not expected to be common but could have some longevity if they develop amid the supportive shear/instability environment. Damaging WIND is also likely today with gusts as high as 60 mph. TORNADOES are not particularly likely and if they do occur are not expected to be particularly long lived nor strong. However, with an environment supportive of supercells and with low level (0-1km) helicity around ~100 m^2/s^2, it will be something worth monitoring.

As such, a watch has been issued for our northern counties/parishes at this time; with subsequent watch(es) for the rest of the area possible but unlikely.

A few showers have blossomed into thunderstorms mostly near the Mississippi River. A couple of cells to our north have already triggered severe TS warning(s) While the bulk of strong storms are expected later today, current conditions do support some severe riskso these storms will need to be watched moving forward.

Tomorrow...

As today's storms will be driven primarily by mid to upper level dynamics, there will be no substantial airmass change in the wake of today's storms. Rather, warm and moist southerly flow will persist ahead of the next feature of interest: a more potent trough and associated cold front set to arrive Wednesday evening. Save for isolated warm/moist air advection triggered shower activity, benign and mostly warm and muggy conditions will persist Tuesday into early Wednesday.

Wednesday...

By Wednesday afternoon into early Wednesday evening, another line of heavy/strong thunderstorms will push into the area. Though deep shear will be stronger with this system, it will also be largely boundary parallel, which often doesn't yield the most efficient severe wind producing storms. One caveat is any cells that develop ahead of the line may be able to better tap into the more robust regime. Still, moderate instability and increased upper flow will present potential for damaging wind gusts. While tornadoes can't be ruled out, the impact of a very southward track of a secondary surface low across central LA and south MS should tend to NOT favor a low level wind field conducive for tornadoes. Average rainfall amounts around an inch with locally higher totals will be a welcome sight for the bulk of our area that is experiencing long term rainfall deficits. Rain chances will end with the passage of the front late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.

Thursday through Sunday...

A brief return to cooler, more seasonable conditions will arrive behind the front Thursday, though the airmass will bounce back quickly into this weekend with high temps returning to the 80s across most of the area as return flow kicks back in by Friday. Another deepening upper trough may bring another cold front through the area around the Sunday/Monday time frame, with a returning chance for showers by Sunday. There is potential for a more sustained cool off behind this system, with low temps in the 30s back in the realm of possibility in some areas. This is still several days away, and thus, a lower confidence possibility.

Next Monday...

Another bout of storms is expected to impact the area Monday morning. The overall setup looks to be quite favorable for stronger thunderstorms. A deep trough that is dynamically supported will swing through the ArkLaTex region sometime Sunday night through Monday, which will allow for substantial cold air advection to make its way down from the northern CONUS. The main point of divergence among model guidance at this point is a matter of timing not so much intensity. Although if the trough axis swings through during max heating, that could of course cause the system to be diurnally strengthened. This far out its difficult to pin down timing, given the limited guidance that projects out to 168 hours. Our temperatures will certainly be about 5F below norms after this system passes through: Highs are looking to top out in the 60s F and the lows for Monday night will range in the mid to low 40s F./86/OAJ/DL/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 141 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will develop and spread east to northeast before tapering off around 10/00Z Tuesday. Some gusts around 50mph and lowered visibility and/or ceilings will be possible in any robust convection. MVFR ceilings will develop at most TAF sites by 10/05Z Tuesday and then lower to IFR to LIFR by 10/08-10Z. Expect improvements to MVFR stratus after 10/14-15Z. Southerly winds will prevail through the end of the 18Z TAF cycle, gusty up to 20mph at times during the afternoon while light tonight. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 66 83 67 / 70 20 10 0 Meridian 82 65 84 65 / 70 30 10 0 Vicksburg 82 66 83 67 / 70 30 10 0 Hattiesburg 83 68 87 67 / 60 10 10 0 Natchez 82 66 84 67 / 70 20 10 0 Greenville 77 66 80 67 / 90 40 10 10 Greenwood 80 66 83 67 / 90 40 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.