textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected through at least the middle of the upcoming week. Daily max heat index values will be near 105 to 115 degrees.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to return mid to late week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This evening into tonight...

Oppressive heat remains the main concern into the evening. Deep ridge (597-599DM) is keeping anomalous warmth and strong subsidence around. There is an area of slightly less deep moisture (1.2 to 1.4 inches) in the Interstate 55 to Highway 45 corridors. That is gradually getting squashed from the west and to the east, where some rain chances are ongoing to the east and towards the Gulf Coast. High temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s, with a few sites highs eclipsing the century mark (Greenville-GLH, Jackson/Hawkins Field-HKS, Hattiesburg-HBG). Dangerous heat persists, with the inherited heat advisory ongoing into the overnight hours. Dewpoints have mixed some (65F to 69F) so that has held back some of the worst heat/humidity, but that will only worsen into late weekend into the upcoming work week. Unfortunately overnight relief remains limited as lows struggle to fall below 80F. Record warm lows remain possible. Updates were sent out earlier. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

The threat for dangerous heat stress conditions into at least midweek remains our message this weekend. Upper-level ridge shifting westward across the region is the primary driver of current very hot air temperatures. 850mb temperatures of 20-23 C are supporting daytime max temps near 100 with deep mixing in our region. The humidity is lessened by mixing as well, but still enough to keep daily heat index values maxing out around 105-115 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in place for the next few days. Some portions of the area could exceed 110 degree heat indices tomorrow, and a portion of the area may need to be upgraded to an Excessive Heat Warning.

By midweek, the ridge will consolidate and amplify over the Desert Southwest, letting a trough pattern set up over the eastern CONUS. There should be relief from the heat at least in the form of "cooler" air behind a cold front, but rain chances will increase along and ahead of the cold front passage. Thursday onward, most locations have at least a slight chance for showers or thunderstorms. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours, under scattered to broken (SCT-BKN) cumulus deck between 5-8kft (mainly during peak diurnal heating into the afternoon hours). Surface winds will remain light and variable today (sustained/gusts less than 10mph), light overnight and westerly on Sunday. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 75 100 77 100 / 0 0 10 10 Vicksburg 77 99 78 100 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 77 101 78 100 / 0 10 10 20 Natchez 77 100 77 100 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 79 102 80 102 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 77 100 79 101 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.