textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited heat stress concerns will continue into Saturday.

- After a brief break in heat impacts, heat stress will build back in by middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A low pressure system is slowly pushing southeast through the Midwest US as we head into this weekend. AT the surface, a lifting warm front is the focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. PWAT values in excess of 2.4 inches were analyzed along this boundary today. It is hot and humid, to say the least. Widespread heat index values in the 105-110 degree range were being observed this afternoon, and a Heat Advisory remains in effect until early this evening. The near-moist adiabatic lapse rates aloft are a limiting factor for microburst production today, especially in the plume of deepest tropical moisture. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms, but no organized risk for severe storms this afternoon.

Tomorrow into Sunday, the low pressure system's cold front will push southeast into our area. The front will still serve as a potential focus for shower and thunderstorm development, but most noticeable impact will be the "drier" (near 65-70 degree) dew points wrapping into the region. By Tuesday/Wednesday the low will pull to the northeast and get absorbed in the jet stream, leaving broad zonal ridging along the Gulf Coast and interior South. It's not the most dominant ridge, but will generally favor heat and lower rain chances through the mid to late next week. Expect a return of heat stress messaging when that occurs. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Scattered SHRA and TS continue to impact portions of central and east MS late this afternoon, but coverage will decrease heading into this evening. Additional scattered SHRA and TS will be possible on Saturday. Brief visby reductions are possible at impacted terminals. Otherwise, a brief period of MVFR stratus ceilings are possible over east MS on Saturday morning. But otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Mostly southerly winds will shift to westerly during the day Saturday, becoming gusty late Saturday morning and afternoon. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 93 71 90 / 20 30 20 0 Meridian 73 92 72 90 / 40 50 50 10 Vicksburg 76 94 71 91 / 20 30 10 0 Hattiesburg 75 93 74 92 / 20 40 40 10 Natchez 75 95 72 93 / 20 20 20 0 Greenville 76 95 71 90 / 20 10 10 0 Greenwood 75 93 70 88 / 20 20 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.