textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Through tonight: Scattered showers and a few storms accompanied by fairly strong outflows are advancing quickly northward across the western half of the forecast area this afternoon. The storms aren't particularly intense, but southerly flow of 20 to 30 kt in the lowest few thousand feet is helping to enhance the downdraft/outflow process, and this is leading to strong convective gusts of 40 to 50 mph. The activity should diminish quickly with loss of heating early this evening, then expect quiet weather overnight with perhaps a few patchy areas of fog in the Pine Belt region early Friday morning.

Friday: With no airmass change expected, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will once again be possible Friday. Low level flow could help to enhance wind gust potential as was the case today, especially over western portions of the area in the afternoon.

Then for Saturday: A marginal risk for severe weather including wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size has been maintained per SPC, and it appears the "peak" storm intensity should be along/nw of the Natchez Trace Corridor roughly in the late afternoon to evening time frame where west to east wind surges may have greater potential for occurrence relative to other areas. From there the overall threat should diminish as you go southeast. Weak lapse rates, weak deep layer shear, and weak forcing all limit potential for greater severe, but just enough of these ingredients will combine to maintain this marginal severe threat. Deep layer moisture could be sufficient to support isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

Sunday through mid week: In the wake, sometime later Sunday, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week, until the later half of the week when weak moisture recovery should bring slight rain chances back into the forecast, mainly in the southwest. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

As of 1723Z, multiple TAF sites are showing a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions to start off the TAF period. A gusty 18-23kts south wind will continue to develop over the western half of the area before subsiding by 23Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be possible this afternoon into early evening with greatest coverage in the west. Ceilings will improve to VFR after 02Z Friday and will prevail until 06Z Friday. After 06Z, southern TAF sites will see ceilings drop to MVFR. By 10Z, multiple sites will see a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 66 85 65 83 / 20 10 0 80 Meridian 64 86 63 85 / 10 10 0 60 Vicksburg 67 85 65 83 / 10 30 10 90 Hattiesburg 66 85 66 85 / 10 10 0 60 Natchez 68 84 67 83 / 10 40 0 90 Greenville 69 85 68 79 / 10 30 20 90 Greenwood 67 87 66 82 / 20 10 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.