textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder weather is expected Friday into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front.

- Colder weather with lows below freezing should return Sunday and persist into early next week.

- Dangerously cold weather is expected Sunday night with widespread wind chills into the 10-20 degree range.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 551 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Short-term weather elements were updated through the day tomorrow with the latest guidance. No significant changes were needed, but did remove mentionable POPs from areas in the far south during the day tomorrow. While a light shower cannot be ruled out, at times around the US Highway 84 corridor, moisture should be shallow enough that measurable rain will be hard to come by. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Through Friday: Dry through the period with gradually warmer temperatures. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed northwest flow aloft across our region. Northwest flow aloft will continue across our CWA through Friday. Latest surface analysis had 1022mb high centered over southern Mississippi/southeast Louisiana and a 1006mb high centered over the central Plains. The surface high to our south will shift east through Friday while the northwest flow aloft helps send a cold front associated with the central Plains surface low, into our CWA Friday. The return flow associated with the surface high will gradually increase low level moisture back across our CWA as it shifts east. This moisture increase will help support rain development along and ahead of the cold front but model consensus maintains that any rain chances in our CWA will not occur until after sunset Friday and mainly across our southern zones. The moisture increase will also help keep temperatures warmer tonight than last night. In fact morning lows Friday will be a couple degrees warmer than normal. The warming trend will continue Friday ahead of the approaching cold front. Afternoon highs will top out 5- 10 degrees warmer than normal. /22/

Friday Night through Thursday...

Portions of southeast MS will see a slight chance of scattered showers (local PoPs around 15-20%) Friday night as global guidance continues to show a strong cold front pushing south across our forecast area. Showers will start to become more widespread looking ahead into Saturday/Saturday evening with afternoon highs peaking in the mid 60s/low 70s. Rainfall amounts will be less than a quarter of an inch. Rain chances will come to an end early Sunday morning with a few lingering showers possible across portions of the Pine Belt. Quiet weather conditions will prevail across our forecast area Sunday afternoon giving a little break from the rain.

Chiller temperatures will follow the frontal passage as we go from Sunday night to early next week. Forecast confidence for this round of colder temperatures from Sunday night to Monday morning continues to increase a bit more as model consensus continues to show a significant polar high surging south through the MS Valley with morning lows forecast to fall in the low 20s/upper teens. Because of this, a "Limited" risk for dangerous cold has been introduced in our HWO mainly for areas along and north of I-20 including all of southeast AR, and portions of northeast LA. Although this event is still a few days away, preparations should be made now in order to protect vulnerable vegetation. Expect further adjustments to the cold graphic as we get closer. Temperatures will start to rebound and rain chances will increase a bit as we go into the late week. /CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 551 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

VFR conditions and light winds from the south to start the TAF period at all sites. Some low stratus possible to develop south of Interstate 20 before 12Z, with a chance for MVFR ceilings at KHEZ particularly. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 40 67 49 66 / 0 10 10 20 Meridian 37 67 47 64 / 0 10 10 20 Vicksburg 42 67 48 65 / 0 10 10 30 Hattiesburg 39 71 52 71 / 0 10 20 20 Natchez 44 69 52 69 / 0 10 10 20 Greenville 41 64 39 58 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 42 65 41 60 / 0 0 0 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.