textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms, with locally heavy rain remain possible through Thursday. - Dangerous heat will build and spread across the area by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

A persistent northwesterly flow regime aloft will maintain an active storm track across the deep south over the next few days. A stalled westerly frontal boundary positioned over the region will act as a focus for this setup, steering an organized MCV like convective complex from the southern plains southward into the ArkLaMiss by late Wednesday morning. While confidence isnt the greatest based on timing of environmental conditions aligning, high resolution guidance shows an interesting signal for localized heavy rainfall within this corridor, highlighting a the probability to see 3-5in of rain in a localized area based on the ensembles mean-max probabilities. As the complex pushes into the region, daytime heating will build instability in the 2500-3000j/kg range, which will serve to initiate more intense convection capable of producing heavy localized downpours and damaging wind gusts.

Lingering wet antecedent conditions from recent rainfall will leave the region vulnerable for flash flooding with higher hourly rainfall rates or localized training, thus in the GHWO we have indicated a limited threat area for flash flooding coinciding with the marginal risk for severe weather for Wednesday.

By Thursday and through the weekend, the weather pattern will shift significantly as we expect that to be substantial drying as a strong upper level subtropical ridge builds eastward over the region. This will effectively shut down the active organized storm pattern and leave minimal chances for isolated diurnal convection. This building ridge will trigger an elevated risk for dangerous heat stress conditions. With increased humidity from the building tropical ridge heat indices will start to push into the 100-105 range by Friday with heat indices continuing to rise, surging into the 110-115 range by early next week./KP/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 650 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Forecast confidence is not the greatest as much will depend on how the current MCV over the ArkLaTex evolves overnight and into the early morning hours. Have tried to extrapolate the potential MCV timing and associated TSRA forecasts while also emphasizing MVFR/IFR category ceiling threats during early/mid morning hours for now. It seems the convective threats will peak during the day, with lingering TSRA potential into the early evening mainly over southern/eastern portions of the area. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 87 72 91 / 20 80 30 40 Meridian 69 87 70 90 / 10 80 50 30 Vicksburg 73 88 73 91 / 30 40 20 10 Hattiesburg 74 90 73 92 / 20 70 20 40 Natchez 74 91 73 93 / 30 20 20 0 Greenville 70 85 71 90 / 60 70 30 10 Greenwood 70 85 71 91 / 30 70 30 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.