textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased rain chances continue into Sunday, and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out Sunday.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1259 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Today through next week (Friday)...

Rest of today through this weekend:

Morning synoptic/RAP analysis indicates ridge centered just off the FL Peninsula in the western Atlantic, while another ridge is centered over the Four Corners. The Gulf Coast region remains on the western periphery of the former mentioned ridge. High moisture laden atmospheric profiles (around 2 inches) and a stationary frontal boundary are situated across the region. This is keeping convection initiation (CI) slow to develop across the region. Expect medium to high rain chances to become scattered to numerous (40 to 70 percent) while high rain chances and widespread coverage in the Pine Belt (greater than 70 to 80 percent coverage). While there could be some storms across the area, weak skinny thermo profiles and meager lapse rates will limit convective organization. HREF PMMs indicate some low chance probs (around 10 percent) of exceeding 3 inch rainfall totals. However, with confidence on the low side, not advertising anything in the HWO graphics. Temperatures will be seasonably warm today, some 5-10F above (86-91F).

Rain chances decrease in coverage into early evening, with additional development overnight, but medium to high chance and scattered to numerous coverage most likely in the Pine Belt through daybreak Sunday. Lows will seasonably warm, some 8-15F above (65- 71F). Deep moisture will persist into Sunday, with stationary boundary locked in along the Natchez Trace corridor to just a touch southeast. While there could be some locally heavy downpours again, diurnal heating will be even less than today and should limit convection intensity and rainfall totals overall. There are some HREF/REFS low chance probs (around 10 percent) of 24 hour rainfall totals exceeding 3 inches in the Highway 98 to Interstate 59 corridors. /DC/

Next week: As the front begins to make headway into the area Monday, rain will come to an end as dry air pushes in its wake. 50s Dewpoints in the upper will allow lows to cool into the middle 50s in the north and low 60s in the south. There is a bit of crossover Monday night, especially in the southeast, so fog/low stratus is a possibility.

The remainder of the week will be dry, reinforced by NW flow in the wake of the trough. Temperatures will be more seasonal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Rain chances return next weekend as a shortwave out of Texas/western Gulf will return the moist airmass with 2+ inch PWAT. Although there is some flow with this shortwave, lapse rates are rather moist adiabatic, thus insufficient for severe. There may be enough support however to necessitate monitoring for heavy rainfall as we get closer. /SAS/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 649 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low stratus ceilings are expected to develop across most of the area overnight, with ceilings falling to IFR/LIFR. Additionally, visibility may fall to MVFR in patchy fog and periodic SHRA. Conditions will be slow to improve through the day Sunday, but may improve first around GLH/GWO as drier air begins to move into the area. Additionally, scattered to numerous SHRA and isolated TS will persist through the TAF period, potentially resulting in visby reductions in heavier RA. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 81 67 85 / 40 80 40 0 Meridian 69 79 66 84 / 60 80 30 10 Vicksburg 68 81 64 84 / 50 60 20 0 Hattiesburg 70 80 68 84 / 70 70 40 20 Natchez 69 82 66 85 / 50 80 30 10 Greenville 67 82 62 84 / 30 50 10 0 Greenwood 67 82 62 86 / 40 60 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.