textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Tonight through next Thursday...One word basically sums up the majority of this forecast period, "HOT". This is due to the forecast area remaining under the influence of a broad and strong mid/upper level ridge that's built into the Lower Mississippi River Valley from the west, along with high pressure at the surface over the region. With high temperatures climbing into the mid and upper 90s each day, with some locales potentially seeing highs at or just above the century mark during the Monday-Wednesday timeframe next week, coupled with dew points generally hovering in the low to middle 70s, afternoon heat index values in the 105-110F range will be the norm. This will especially be the case during that aforementioned Monday-Wednesday period, when indices currently look to be more around 110F across much of the CWA.

I'll maintain the "Elevated Risk" for dangerous heat stress in the HWO into next week. A "Heat Advisory" will also be needed at some point during the period. Currently it looks like that could come as early as Sunday, but it'll definitely be needed Monday into at least the middle part of next week. That being said, based on observed data the past couple of afternoons, the NBM has been too hot with high temperatures by some 2-4 degrees in most places across the CWA. I believe this has to do with some remaining soil moisture from recent rains, along with very green vegetation across the region. As a result, I've lowered highs and gone closer to climatology for Saturday, which yields values staying in the low and middle 90s. This currently keeps us under "Heat Advisory" criteria for at least the start of this weekend.

As far as chances for convection are concerned, they'll be few and far between. I do agree with the previous forecaster that with the eastern portion of the CWA being on the far eastern periphery of the ridge and surface high, and under the influence of north to north northwesterly flow aloft, there could be a period where attention needs to be paid upstream for any complex of storms that could pose a "glancing blow" to mainly the northeast portion of the CWA. While severe storms are currently not forecast to affect any portion of the forecast area through the period, this potential will continue to be monitored in future model runs. Again though, an isolated shower or storm can't be ruled out throughout the forecast period. Some slightly better rain chances do look to enter the forecast late next week, mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor, as a weakening surface boundary is currently progged to drop south into the forecast area. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Aside from a few mid to high cumulus clouds, quiet weather conditions will occur across all sites through the TAF period with VFR ceilings prevailing. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 94 75 95 / 0 10 0 0 Meridian 75 93 75 95 / 0 10 10 20 Vicksburg 76 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 75 95 76 97 / 10 10 20 10 Natchez 75 92 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 75 93 76 96 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 74 94 75 96 / 10 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.