textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in low-lying or urban areas tomorrow evening into early Wednesday morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The upper-level shortwave ridge overhead today will give way to a trough and deepening low pressure system making its way into the central CONUS. The low itself is expected to lift northeastward tomorrow from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing north and west of our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave energy pivoting overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at least modest height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without prolonged warm, moist advection in advance of this system's cold frontal passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500 J/kg over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop for discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon hours. The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments into the early morning hours, heavy rainfall rates. Weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an isolated flash flood threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the progressive movement of the front should limit an organized flooding threat. The Marginal severe storm risk was expanded slightly to the east with this forecast cycle, and the "Limited" flash flood threat graphic was trimmed to primarily the Delta where initial rain rates and a less organized front could see the rain accumulate a little faster in the evening hours.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning. The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal and the growing season has ended already. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

VFR/MVFR flight conditions with southeast winds up to 15 kts as stratus clouds move over the area. Flight conditions will improve to VFR as the stratus deck lift and winds subside to 8-10 kts later this afternoon into the evening. Low stratus will move back in towards the end of the period, reducing flight conditions to MVFR. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 82 64 77 / 0 20 100 30 Meridian 63 80 66 78 / 0 20 90 70 Vicksburg 64 83 58 76 / 0 60 100 10 Hattiesburg 63 82 66 82 / 0 50 60 50 Natchez 66 83 60 76 / 0 60 100 10 Greenville 65 80 56 72 / 0 70 100 0 Greenwood 64 81 59 74 / 0 30 100 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.