textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chilly conditions continue early this week with perhaps some fog potential tonight.

- Dry and milder conditions are most likely as we go through mid to late week and into the weekend.

- Colder weather may return by Sunday into early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 752 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Rest of Tonight...High pressure at the surface will continue to build east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley overnight. An overall quiet and chilly night is in store for the forecast area. Low stratus across portions of southeast and east central Mississippi has slightly eroded a bit this evening, but it remains firmly entrenched across the remainder of the CWA. This is expected to be the case through much of the overnight period as lows fall into the low and middle 30s. If eroding of this stratus deck is more widespread across the area than what's currently being forecast, lows in those places with less cloud cover will be colder and fall into the upper 20s, with some patchy fog also possible in those area early Tuesday morning.

The ongoing forecast is currently in good shape. Other than some minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends, no major changes will be made on this evening's update. /19/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 115 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Tonight through Tuesday: In the near term, a low level cold advection pattern promises to maintain chilly conditions through Tuesday night, and with that, there is a lot uncertainty regarding how quickly the stratus may erode as we go into tonight. High res model guidance suggest the low level cold advection should shut down at most locations overnight, resulting in a greater chance for stratus dissipation, but with little mixing of the boundary layer this afternoon in the feeble early Dec sun, we're leaning toward a more pessimistic low cloud forecast.

With greater cloud cover, temperatures would stay above freezing at many locations, and not get quite as cold as currently forecast by model blends. Also, there would also be less opportunity for fog formation. On the flip side, in the case of earlier clearing, we would have colder lows and greater potential for fog, but forecast confidence is too low and the dense fog threat too conditional to formally message it at this point. The bottom line here is to expect a cloudier and not as cold/foggy forecast tonight, but monitor for earlier clearing and forecast changes that would bring.

Tuesday night through the weekend: Dry northwest flow aloft will be the primary weather influence in our area, and this will result in seasonable temperatures with little if any chance for rainfall as we finish up this week and go through the weekend. There may be a more dramatic warm-up Friday/Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front, with much chillier temperatures following the frontal passage as we go into Sunday into early next week. Forecast confidence for temperatures in the longer range remains quite low due to large variance in the global ensembles and poor run-to-run consistency with the details in our area. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Low stratus is trying to erode across the region this evening, but it's currently struggling and thus looks to plague area TAF sites overnight into Tuesday morning. This, along with the potential for some patchy fog, mainly south of Interstate 20, will yield MVFR/IFR flight categories at TAF sites though at least late morning Tuesday. Stratus is currently forecast to gradually erode through late morning, with a return to VFR categories expected by midday. Winds overnight will be calm to light with an increasing easterly component. These will gradually become more southerly into Tuesday afternoon between 3-8 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 32 58 39 63 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 30 57 36 65 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 33 58 39 65 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 33 59 36 68 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 32 59 39 66 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 32 54 41 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 31 56 40 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.