textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Some storms may become strong or produce locally heavy rainfall early next week.

- Increasing heat stress is expected Sunday and Monday, with triple digit heat index readings possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Near term: We remain in a seasonably warm and very muggy regime. Patchy fog and a few areas of low clouds were ongoing early this morning, and even a few showers have persisted from yesterday evening across north and east MS. Remarkably, the same MCV/mesolow that has helped drive shower activity over our area the past couple of days is still apparent in satellite imagery over western middle TN. Along with diurnal heating, this feature may continue to help drive convective development later today. However, with subtle upper ridging, CAM guidance suggests coverage will be less than in recent days but still great enough to support chance PoPs. Patchy fog will be possible again late tonight through early Sunday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday: As upper troughing begins to build southward along the Atlantic coast, upper flow will become more northwesterly over our region during the early portion of next week. This time of year, that regime often results in a more active pattern, where one or more rounds of convection may track into the area in additional to any diurnal convection that develops in the persisting moist airmass. While deep shear may be only marginally supportive of severe storms, strong summerlike instability will support potential for storms to become severe with a primary threat for damaging winds. No specific severe storm outlooks are in place at this time, as the mesoscale nature of these systems makes timing and other specifics difficult to anticipate much more than a day ahead of time. However, be aware that a severe threat may ultimately be added during this time frame. Heavy rainfall would also be possible, with a localized flooding risk especially in the areas where the ground is more saturated recently.

Outside of any areas of rain, it will be increasingly hot but still humid especially Sunday and Monday. Heat indices could top the triple digits in some areas for the first time this year.

Mid to late next week: The deepening East Coast trough will ultimately nudge a backdoor cold front in from the northeast around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, with surface ridging encroaching across the area. This should temporarily reduce humidity and rain chances while moderating temps across a good portion of the area (higher confidence farther north and east) Wednesday into Thursday. This pattern change looks to be short lived, though, as a more humid airmass is set to return by next weekend. /DL/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 724 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings to start the period in eastern Mississippi. VFR conditions to prevail at the TAF sites by 15Z-18Z today. Isolated to scattered SHRA or TSRA are possible before 00Z Sunday, but confidence in impacts of thunder at any site was too low to mention at this time. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 88 72 91 72 / 30 10 50 10 Meridian 87 71 90 71 / 50 10 50 10 Vicksburg 89 73 91 73 / 20 20 40 10 Hattiesburg 89 72 91 72 / 30 20 40 20 Natchez 90 73 92 73 / 30 20 30 10 Greenville 89 72 90 73 / 20 10 50 20 Greenwood 88 72 90 72 / 30 0 50 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.