textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable warmth will persist through the upcoming week.

- After a stretch of dry weather, chances for rain and some storms return late this week.

- Wet and stormy pattern next weekend, with continued signals of more impactful convective period and possible strong to severe storms into the following work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Rest of today through early next weekend (Saturday)...

Through tonight: A quiet and warm afternoon is on tap across the region. The region remains under dry northwesterly flow with 850mb shortwave building across the northern Gulf Coast. Southerly return flow is coming back into the ArkLaTex and into the region late this evening on the western periphery of the shortwave ridge. Dry air persists aloft with only an uptick to up to around three quarters of an inch precipitable water (PWs), so deep mixing isn't as much of a concern as yesterday. Leaned towards short term consensus and gridded LAMP dewpoints. Diurnal range will be around near 28F to 40F degrees, with higher ranges in central to eastern MS. Afternoon relative humidity will remain near critical levels but less compared to yesterday. Even though yesterday overachieved on mixing and fire danger, albeit with light winds, humidity won't be as critically low today so fire danger will not be as much of a concern. Highs will remain seasonably warm, some 12F to 18F above (79F to 83F), with seasonably warm lows both tonight, some 8F to 12F above, and especially Sunday night, some 10F to 15F above (50F to 55F tonight). Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the Pine Belt into early Monday morning. HREF indicate low end dense fog probs (10 to 30 percent). Holding off introduction in HWO for now but monitoring trends.

This week into early next weekend (Saturday): Upper pattern will consist of strengthening ridge over the Gulf while quasi zonal westerly flow will set up into the latter half of the work week. Southerly return flow will become entrenched across the region on the western periphery of subtropical Atlantic surface high. This will lead to increasing heat and some gradual uptick in humidity into the mid to latter half of the week. Seasonably warm temps will be the story, as they creep up, highs some 12F to 20F above (upper 70s to low 80s early week while into the mid 80s by late week) while lows some 15F to 25F above by mid to late week (low to mid 50s early week before low to mid 60s into late week and early next weekend). Rain chances should hold off most of the week, with a return of deeper moisture (one inch to an inch and a half) into late week around Thursday to Friday. Some increased rain chances could deflect off to the north and coverage be a bit high on Friday (35 to 65 percent). However, the pattern becomes highly amplified into late week and next weekend in advance of a deepening cutoff cold core low over the Baja Peninsula and strengthening upper ridge over the western Atlantic into Gulf to Caribbean Sea. As a strong shortwave swings into east-central Canada, this will drive a front down into the area next weekend that will bring increased frontal convergence, deeper moist advection of PWs near an inch and a half and increasing lapse rates. This will set the stage for potential stormy and wet next weekend and the following week. There remains significant spread of synoptic evolution, with GFS cluster analysis leaning towards more cutoff low and less phased with jet energy to the north while Euro and Canadian cluster analysis indicate less cutoff and more phased solution, which would be a faster and more impactful solution into next week. Machine learning, AI and CIPS historical analog guidance suite still support a setup for strong to severe storms as early as next weekend and into the following week, but uncertainty in cutoff low development and stronger southeast ridge bring pause for confidence of more organized convection, storm mode and timing. Stay tuned as the pattern comes into agreement and fine details are ironed out. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

With high clouds drifting southeast across the region, VFR flight categories will continue to prevail at most area TAF sites this evening, and into Monday morning and afternoon. Some patchy fog will be possible around day break Monday across the Pine Belt. This could briefly reduce visibilities at KHBG & KPIB for a brief period. If observed, fog will begin . eroding after sunrise, with a return to VFR categories expected by 15Z. Winds overnight will be calm to light from the south around 3 knots. They'll continue to have a southerly component on Monday, while increasing to between 5-8 knots by late morning. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 52 80 56 80 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 50 79 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 52 80 56 82 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 50 81 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 53 80 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 54 78 56 79 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 56 80 58 81 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.