textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no clear signal for rain chances until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The transition away from summer is appearing in the synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader region, but split flow is noted in the guidance into next week. Southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will carry embedded shortwaves and add more flow and shear to the atmosphere. Shortwaves may bring showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to allow much. Either way, the conditions will be drier without concern for humidity causing dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of guidance shows a break down of the ridge and a more full-latitude trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS. Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on the timing of this features is very low. Official guidance leans into a faster and more progressive low with a cold front and storms in our area by Wednesday. Latest ECMWF paints the other extreme of the guidance - a slower low cutting off around the Desert Southwest and continued warm advection across our forecast area and region (rain to the northwest still) through Wednesday. We will definitely have to monitor this potential system, as it marks a change from the stagnant summer pattern and a potentially more potent cool-season pattern. /NF/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all sites for a majority of the forecast period. Around sunrise MVFR low stratus/patchy fog will linger at GWO, but quickly clear out after sunrise, expect MVFR to be intermittent, before fully dissipating around 14Z./OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 65 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 86 63 86 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 86 64 89 64 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 90 66 88 63 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 88 66 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 86 64 91 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 87 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.