textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Through early next week:

A wavy pattern will persist through the next week over the CONUS, with ridging over the east and troughing over the west being the predominant features. This will support temperatures much above seasonal norms and trough ejections will bring intermittent rain chances and storms.

Scattered showers will steadily propagate south today along a weak cold front. The front will stall near the coast leaving dry air in its wake for Thursday. Rain chances will return Friday in response to the returning warm front, which will gradually lift north and begin a recovery of airmass in advance of a more vigorous shortwave for Saturday. In response, a surface low will deepen and push across the area Saturday. This could bring a line of strong to severe storms given more than sufficient shear and forcing. However, lack of quality low level moisture recovery and weak instability introduces some uncertainty about convective intensity.

The consensus surface low track forecast has shifted a little more to the south and would favor southern portions of the area for any potential severe threat. Some guidance solutions also indicate a tightening pressure gradient and well-mixed boundary layer that could correlate with strong surface winds Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall continues to be a potential hazard to monitor as well given the anomalous 1.5-1.7 precipitable water available to the convective system, but the quick moving nature of the system continues to lower the ceiling for impact significance. Winds could be gusty of the backside of the low as well again on Sunday into Sunday night. Overall, there are still some questions about the impact details due to the variability of guidance, so continue to monitor for updates.

Quiet weather returns for early next week beneath a reinforced upper ridge. Persistent southerly flow will keep temperatures above seasonal norms into next week as well. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 546 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

MVFR/VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail as low ceilings remain due to a frontal boundary pushing through the region. Winds will start off from the south/southwest near 10 kts then shift to the north/northeast once the front moves out throughout the day. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 45 69 49 / 20 0 0 0 Meridian 72 42 68 44 / 30 10 0 10 Vicksburg 71 45 70 50 / 20 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 79 50 72 50 / 30 10 0 10 Natchez 75 50 73 53 / 20 0 0 0 Greenville 62 39 64 45 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 39 67 45 / 30 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.