textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe storms are possible in the east through early afternoon.

- Periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 901 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The forecast has been updated to include the potential for isolated severe thunderstorms from now through early afternoon over portions of east Mississippi. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary hazard although a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. In addition locally heavy rainfall will accompany the strongest storms. An MCV was noted spinning over northeast Lamar and northwest Forest counties. This MCV is expected to track north northeast today and combine with our warm moist airmass to support the strong to severe convection. Provided the MVC tracks as expected it should shift into Alabama south of Columbus ending the potential for severe storm development in our CWA. A "Limited" threat for flash flooding remains over the whole CWA but the greatest potential for any flash flooding will be over east Mississippi into early afternoon. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Memorial Day through Sunday...

Early morning guidance continues to show a warm moist airmass over the southeast CONUS which will help fuel the development of shower and storms across the area. A quick look at local radar scans shows scattered showers along the Gulf currently tracking north towards portions of southeast MS with quiet weather conditions elsewhere. Latest satellite imagery shows the shortwave trough axis over east Tennessee, with the weak cutoff low slowly drifting east across northeast Louisiana. This combined with afternoon highs peaking in the low 80s areawide today will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop across our area this afternoon with higher rain chances (PoPs up to 80%) over east and southeast portions of our CWA. PWATs are expected to increase to near two inches and support locally heavy rainfall at times. No changes have been made to the flood graphic for today and a "Limited" threat for localized flash flooding will be continue to be advertised for our entire forecast area. Will reassess precip trends during the afternoon forecast package later today to to see if a "Elevated" risk may be needed. If an "Elevated" risk is introduced for our area, it will mainly be for portions of east and southeast MS.

Heavy rainfall along with the potential for localized flash flooding will continue to be the primary focus through the long term period. Model consensus still shows that Tuesday-Thursday timeframe will have the best potential for scattered to numerous storms across our CWA. During this time frame, a reinvigorated western CONUS trough will result in more favorable orientation of water vapor transport into our forecast area. Forecast confidence regarding the overall flood threat is still not all that great at this time given recent guidance inconsistencies. With that in mind, the ingredients for heavy rainfall, including the potential for training storms to develop in a very warm moist airmass, and fairly high soil moisture remain in our region. Higher than normal rain chances and typical late May temperatures with highs peaking into the 80s will be possible each day as we go through mid/late week. Storm chances will continue across the area as we head into the weekend. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 602 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A mix of IFR/MVFR/VFR conditions prevail across TAF sites this morning as showers/storms move north across the area. Expect these conditions to continue through the period as showers/storms will continue to be possible through much of the period./15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 68 82 70 / 70 60 70 30 Meridian 80 68 81 70 / 100 60 80 40 Vicksburg 82 67 84 70 / 60 40 60 30 Hattiesburg 80 69 81 70 / 100 50 100 40 Natchez 82 68 84 71 / 60 50 70 30 Greenville 82 68 84 70 / 40 50 50 40 Greenwood 82 68 84 70 / 60 50 70 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.