textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the area as we finish up the week and go into early next week.

- The threat for severe weather has increased Sunday night as there is now an enhanced risk for damaging wind gusts.

- Strong winds will also precede and follow the cold front during the Sunday through Monday time frame. - Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant freeze threat to much of the area Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Significant adjustments were made concerning messaging for weather threats in our forecast area. We have increased both the severe weather and freeze threats given the increasingly dynamic look to the overall weather system that will impact our region in the next few days.

In the near term: High pressure will control our weather for much of the weekend, staying dry through early Sunday. The surface high will shift east of the area this morning and shift surface winds from the south. As a result, dewpoints will gradually recover into the upper 50s to near 60 by early Sunday. A stout upper trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the plains and its attendant surface cold front continues to be the focus for our next round of hazards.

Strong pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind threat both ahead of and in the wake of storms Sunday night. Given increased confidence for impacts both Sunday and Monday, have opted to message areawide limited threat for both days for wind in HWO. The strong forcing and shear, along with sufficient instability along the front will support a forced squall line Sunday night, and the severe weather risk has been upgraded to enhanced/severe by SPC given the continued increase in confidence. The greater severe threat area looks to be over our northwest where the combination of instability/forcing will be greatest, and where updraft intensity and low level environment seem strong enough in the guidance for some tornado potential, particularly with any segments orthogonal to the low level shear vector. Considering the forcing, instability need only be sufficient.

In the wake of the cold front, a polar surface high will usher in a much colder airmass, and will promote freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, and to a lesser extent, Wednesday morning. Confidence has increased in areawide impacts, especially considering the recent record warmth, with highs in the 80s also expected Sunday ahead of this freeze. Impacts to unprotected sensitive vegetation are likely, and have expanded the "significant" threat area in the GHWO. Temperatures will gradually warm mid to late next week with building heights over the region. Highs will rise back above seasonal ms with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday. A strong midlevel high over the desert southwest will keep northerly flow over our area which will maintain dry conditions. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period across multiple TAF sites. A few southern sites (HBG, and PIB) will see visibility briefly drop down to IFR/LIFR ceilings between 12Z/13Z Saturday morning due to low stratus and patchy fog. By 14Z Saturday, visibility across PIB and HBG will improve to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across central MS through Saturday afternoon. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 46 76 57 82 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 44 77 54 81 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 46 76 57 83 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 46 79 57 84 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 48 77 57 83 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 46 74 57 80 / 0 0 0 30 Greenwood 48 78 58 81 / 0 0 0 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.