textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late morning and afternoon hours each day over the first half of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Tuesday: Heat is becoming the main forecast focus as mid/upper ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures over the next few days will begin to reach the upper 90s across the area to near 100 across the ArkLaMiss Delta. Heat indices will reach the 105-110F range especially over the western half of the area, thus a heat advisory is in effect today for these areas. Additional advisories may be needed beyond today.

While the main upper trough axis that helped organize convection across northern portions of the area on Saturday has begun to shift east, remnants of this feature remain across central/ southern sections of the forecast area and this is the most likely focus for diurnal development later today. A few of these storms could again produce strong wind gusts. By Monday and Tuesday, convective coverage is expected to be more isolated as the ridge strengthens.

Wednesday through next Sunday: Low level flow will become more easterly over the latter half of the week, ushering in a relatively drier airmass, especially by Thursday. This airmass will still support hot days, but with dewpoints dropping into 60s and perhaps the 50s, this will notably reduce heat stress danger through the end of the week. While days will still be relatively warm, mornings will see temps dipping into the 60s more often across much of the area. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again around Friday into Saturday, with returning potential for diurnal convection each day.

Long range guidance has been hinting at a potential shift the following week toward temps closer to daily normals, with perhaps highs only in the 80s and lows in the 60s in some areas...not a real taste of fall, but perhaps finally an end to the frequent spells of excessive heat? We're keeping our fingers crossed, stay tuned. /DL/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Isolated afternoon thunderstorms are expected today with more coverage over southeastern zones, as a result HBG/PIB/MEI have TS reflected in a tempo running from 1322Z-1402Z today. While JAN/HKS will have -SHRA for the same time period. All other sites NSW/VFR for the period, as probs remain too low to confidently carry hydrometeors in the TAF; to reiterate however, expect isolated showers with embedded thunder throughout the CWA this afternoon as PoPs hover in the 35% range. /OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 97 72 98 / 10 10 0 10 Meridian 72 99 72 99 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 74 97 73 97 / 0 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 73 97 72 97 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 74 96 73 97 / 10 20 0 10 Greenville 74 100 74 99 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 73 100 72 100 / 0 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019- 025>037-040>044-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.