textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will continue to be a concern early this week. - There is a marginal risk for a strong to severe storms today over especially northeast portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Through Tonight: Local radars still showed isolated to scattered storms over the eastern half of the CWA where deeper moisture with PWATs greater than an inch and three quarters resided. This activity is expected to slowly dissipate by sunrise but additional development is expected this afternoon. latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA with a much weaker ridge aloft overhead and a closed low still centered over the eastern Gulf near the Florida peninsula and a shortwave trough approaching just to our northwest. /22/

The trough moving in from the northwest will replace the lingering shortwave ridge overhead this afternoon. Weaker inhibition across the area, and a nearby frontal boundary to our north will help to trigger afternoon convection. Still low-to-moderate (20-40%) POPs, but any location in the area at least has a chance for showers or thunderstorms tomorrow. The Marginal Risk for strong to severe storms remains in place across the northern half of the area, with damaging wind gusts being the main hazard. With rain chances increasing, and a remnant of drier air hanging on through the Delta areas, the local graphic for heat risk tomorrow was leveled at "Limited" (1 of 4) for tomorrow. Max heat index values should top out near 105 in the hottest areas. /NF/22/

Tuesday through Sunday...Weak troughing will exist across mainly far eastern portions of the forecast area Tuesday, as high pressure aloft begins building into the region from the west. At the surface, a frontal boundary will eventually finish dropping south through the CWA late in the period Tuesday. This, combined with daytime heating in the middle 90s, will again result in isolated to scattered showers and storms developing across areas mainly along and southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway Tuesday afternoon. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be possible with storms, with gusty winds possible with the most intense storms, particularly across East Mississippi.

With high pressure aloft and at the surface becoming more prevalent across the region through the remainder of the forecast period, rain chances essentially dwindle to nil. However in the aforementioned frontal boundary's wake, drier air and less hot conditions will exist across the forecast area for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. As highs Wednesday range from the low to middle 90s, come late week and into the weekend they'll range from the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows will likewise follow suit as they'll range from the upper 60s and lower 70s Wednesday morning. Then cooling into the low to middle 60s late in the week and into the weekend. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Isolated to scattered -TSRA wl be psbl this aftn over the central and eastern TAF sites. Away from any TSRA VFR conditions wl continue to prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 96 71 96 70 / 30 20 30 10 Meridian 96 71 95 69 / 30 30 40 0 Vicksburg 97 71 96 71 / 30 20 20 0 Hattiesburg 96 71 95 70 / 40 30 30 10 Natchez 96 71 97 72 / 30 20 20 0 Greenville 99 72 96 70 / 20 20 10 0 Greenwood 99 70 97 68 / 20 20 20 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.