textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Through late this week (Thursday)...

This weekend (Tonight through Sunday): The region will remain on the western periphery of subtropical ridging to the east and mean troughing gradually deepening over the Intermountain West to Pacific Northwest into mid to late Sunday. With warm/moist advection (thermal profiles at 850mb in the mid to upper teens and PWs climbing to 1.5 to 1.9 inches), an increase in cloud coverage and some rain chances will be possible across southwestern areas into Sunday afternoon. Seasonable warmth is expected tonight and again Sunday, some 4F to 8F above (lows: 58F to 62F to the east of I-55 while 63F to 68F to the west; highs: 85F to 90F). Return flow of low level moisture will bring some fog possible in the southeast tonight. HREF and REFS indicate some low dense fog probs (10 to 30 percent) in east-central to southeast MS. Will hold off introduction in HWO for now.

Lapse rates and vertical totals will be sufficient (7.5 to 8 deg C mid level lapse rates; 25C to 29C vertical totals). There is some weak deep shear (25 to 30kts) that could support a few strong storms in southwest MS into northeast LA on Sunday afternoon to evening.

This week (Monday through Thursday): Cold core low, developing over the Four Corners, will eject into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent seasonable warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 86F to 91F) and moisture (1.5 to 2 inches) will be the norm. Summertime pattern is on tap for the work week. Rain and storm coverage will be scattered (20 to 45 percent). Increased heat and humidity and lapse rates (vertical totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe cannot be ruled out into early to mid week. As a stronger wave swings into the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf states. A southern stream shortwave will enhance upper diffluence, increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday and 65 to 80 percent on Thursday). High temperatures will be seasonable, with lows less seasonable, falling from 8F to 12F above (upper 60s to low 70s west) to 4F to 8F above (mid to upper 60s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse rates, some stronger storms remain possible and while a few marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. Rain totals for the week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which will help lessen some long term drought concerns. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 619 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

A brief period of fog or MVFR stratus is possible Sunday morning across south MS and central LA. Isolated to scattered convection is possible Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 86 69 87 / 0 20 0 20 Meridian 58 87 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 66 87 70 88 / 0 30 10 20 Hattiesburg 61 86 67 88 / 0 10 0 20 Natchez 66 87 72 88 / 0 50 10 30 Greenville 68 89 72 90 / 0 20 10 10 Greenwood 65 88 70 89 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.