textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will continue to be the primary concern through early this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Remainder of this weekend: As anticipated previously, storms have developed along a boundary extending from central AR southeast across northern portions of our forecast area. A favorable environment for strong/severe microbursts with vertical totals near 27 deg C and DCAPE near 1500 j/kg is supporting few intense storms with marginally severe wind gusts, and the storm threat should continue to the early evening hours. Another round of storms is expected Sunday afternoon a little further south than today, and we'll need to monitor for additional severe microburst threats. Otherwise, dangerous heat is on the increase and we have moved forward with the issuance of a heat advisory for mainly the western two thirds of the area where heat indices are forecast to exceed 105. /EC/

Monday through Wednesday: With the building ridge, temps will trend upward again, with highs in the triple digits possible across the Delta region. This airmass will remain seasonably humid, though we expect to see increasing daytime mixing as we head into next week with dewpoints dropping into the 60s during the afternoon hours over much of the area. Still with conditions being so warm, heat indices will approach critical thresholds as early as today across northwest MS/north LA/southeast AR and over much of the western half of the forecast area by tomorrow. Additional advisories may be warranted for a portion of our area, and we continue to highlight the increasing heat stress concerns in graphical products.

Thursday through next Saturday: By mid to late week, low level flow will become increasingly easterly thanks to the orientation of the surface high, ushering in a relatively drier airmass. This airmass will still support hot days, but with dewpoints dropping into the 60s - perhaps even the 50s as times during daytime mixing - it could greatly alleviate heat stress danger through the end of the forecast period. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again late Friday into next Saturday, with returning potential for diurnal convection. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 801 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

A few showers and storms lingering in the forecast area, but impacts to TAF sites are not anticipated. VFR conditions should prevail at the TAF sites through the period with winds generally lighter than 10 kts. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 0 Meridian 72 96 72 99 / 10 30 0 0 Vicksburg 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 73 95 73 97 / 10 20 0 10 Natchez 74 96 74 97 / 10 20 0 20 Greenville 73 99 74 100 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 72 98 72 100 / 10 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025- 034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.