textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

There is not much change in the overall expectations in the forecast and heat continues to be the primary concern heading into the weekend and into next week.

Our area will continue to be under the influence of a large upper ridge, which will tend to suppress coverage of convection for the remainder of the week and redirect larger scale systems to the east. That said, moisture does remain sufficient for some convection, so a popup shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out. The heat will continue to increase largely due to the west northwest flow which will reinforce an 850 thermal ridge over the area. This thermal ridge looks to peak on Tuesday with the axis situated over the area thanks to compression from the flattening of the ridge. Temperatures peak in the upper 90s to near 100, while heat indices will range from 105 in the northeast to greater than 110 in the west. Confidence is high enough to maintain heat messaging with an areawide "elevated" for now. A heat advisory will likely be needed beginning tomorrow continuing through the weekend. It is likely that portions of the area will experience "significant" heat stress next week, and it is likely that as we approach next week a "significant" will be introduced in the HWO graphic. Heat warnings will likely be needed for the middle of next week.

Additionally, while the ridge is no doubt dominant, there does appear to be a little bit of weakening in the east, enough to necessitate monitoring for potential northerly or easterly MCS or some other type of convection with sufficient flow for organization. Severe weather cannot be entirely ruled out this weekend into next week for eastern portions of the area. Details will be sorted out on a day by day basis with the flattening of the ridge placing our area on the eastern flank. This could set up a brief NW flow regime that leaves us more vulnerable to convective systems. All the while, dangerous heat will persist and the ridge looks to rebuild into later next week. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

VFR conditions prevail with few clouds and westerly winds. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 94 75 94 74 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 94 75 95 74 / 0 10 10 0 Vicksburg 94 75 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 97 75 96 76 / 10 10 10 0 Natchez 94 75 95 74 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 94 75 95 76 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 74 95 75 / 10 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.