textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms today (some strong to locally severe and flash flooding threat), with rain chances persisting through Thursday. - Dangerous heat will build and spread across the area by this weekend and worsen into early next week

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Rest of today into tonight...

A cloudy and less humid afternoon is on tap, with rain and storms ongoing across the region. A few showers and storms are migrating southeast this morning, leading to widespread cloud coverage across a majority of the region. There are also a few mesoscale convective vortices (MCV) around, with one evident moving across northern Lauderdale County. We remain on the northern fringe of a stationary frontal boundary, with better moisture and destabilization along and southwest of the stationary front. This is generally over southwest MS into southern portions LA. This is leading to a good temperature gradient of mid 80s into central LA to southeast MS while only in the upper 70s to low 80s to the north under the cloud shield. There is is some bulk shear across the area, so the inherited Marginal Risk is valid. There was an earlier expansion and cannot rule out some strong storms or a couple of severe storms as well. Morning microburst checklist, including 12Z sounding modified to reflect the near storm environment (NSE) this afternoon, is generally little risk in central MS while some low but more supportive into central LA and southwest MS. There are a few convective allowing models that indicate some potential organization of north to south oriented storms, which would favorably align for convective wind gusts and possibly some hail. This is most likely south of Interstate 20 into Highway 84 but cannot be ruled out even further north. In addition, there remains a low risk of heavy downpours up to 3 inches, possibly locally higher. Kept the inherited Limited for flash flooding to reflect the earlier expansion to the Marginal risk for severe in the HWO graphics. Most organized storms or flash flooding threats will wind down into early evening (9PM to 10PM). HREF and REFS dense fog probabilities indicate some potential into northeast MS and an HWO graphic was advertised for those local areas.

For forecast elements, temperatures will be seasonably cool along and north of Interstate 20, some 3F to 6F degrees below (82F to 86F), while seasonable to the south (88F to 92F). Rain chances will remain high (50 to 90 percent range), with highest focused in northern half of the area. Some overnight rain chances will persist in southern half of the region tonight, and cannot rule out another round moving back into the northwest late overnight. Seasonable lows are expected as well. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Thursday through next Tuesday:

Northwest flow and active convective pattern will continue through Thursday before warmth and heat build in late week through the weekend. Shortwave trough will dig through the region leading to continued scattered convective activity into Thursday. Precipitable water (PWs) will remain generally the same (1.8 to 2.0 inches) so scattered coverage (20 to 45 percent) will be the norm. There should be some lapse rates (24C to 26C vertical totals) and light northwesterly shear (10 to 15kts) so cannot rule out a rogue strong storm. Highs will moderate a little more seasonable (upper 80s to low 90s to the south). Humidity will creep up somewhat as well, with heat indices peaking into the upper 90s to low 100s, especially in the south.

Mean ridging at the surface and aloft will build in Friday through the weekend, leading to dry weather into the weekend. Deepening ridge (594 to 596DM) and warm advection will drive summertime warmth and humidity back into the region. Highs will moderate (3F to 6F above Friday to Sunday and 4F to 8F above early next week), generally low to mid 90s Friday into Sunday and mid to upper 90s next Monday and Tuesday. Dangerous heat will become a concern through that period, especially Saturday and beyond as heat indices near or in excess of 105F degrees to even in excess of 110F degrees at times. HWO graphics and heat headlines will likely be needed in later forecast during this stretch of dangerous heat. Lows remain seasonably warm during this time (low to mid 70s). Next best chance of rain may not be until mid next week (earliest reasonable next Tuesday with most likely next Wednesday). /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 219 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

SHRA and TSRA will continue this afternoon, which could bring periods of gusty winds and variable visibility, persisting through around 25/00Z Thursday. SHRA and occasional TSRA cannot be ruled out overnight. Lowered flight restrictions are possible overnight, generally near GTR and MEI, as low as IFR to LIFR ceilings and IFR visibility, with occasional MVFR ceilings at JAN and HKS. Lowered flight restrictions should improve by 25/15-16Z Thursday, with SHRA and TSRA chances generally increasing after the end of the 18Z TAF cycle. /DC/NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 90 73 92 / 30 30 20 0 Meridian 69 89 72 93 / 40 30 20 0 Vicksburg 71 90 73 91 / 30 40 10 0 Hattiesburg 72 90 73 93 / 50 50 20 0 Natchez 73 92 73 92 / 20 10 0 0 Greenville 70 89 73 90 / 30 50 0 0 Greenwood 69 90 73 92 / 20 30 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.