textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress is expected across portions of the forecast area over the next several days.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible today across far southern portions of the area, expanding into central areas as well by Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Today into Monday...

Persistent hot/humid conditions will continue today. Dangerous heat conditions are expected with greatest heat stress over the southwestern half of the area where heat indices reaching 110 degrees are expected. A heat advisory remains in effect for those areas concurrent with an "Elevated" (2/4) delineation on graphical hazardous weather outlook products. A weak frontal boundary will push southward, briefly "cooling" temps to the lower 90s with heat indices near 105 becoming mostly confined to the southwestern third of the area by Monday where a "Limited" (1/4) area is depicted for that heat risk.

Showers and storms will be mostly confined to southern portions of the area today with strong to marginally severe storms depicted by a "Marginal" (1/5) outlook near the highway 84 corridor. These storms will peak in intensity during the afternoon into evening when heating is maximized.

The risk area will expand on Monday to include areas as far north as the I-20 corridor as storms once again peak in intensity during the afternoon and evening.

Shear remains weak due to seasonably weak upper level winds and extensive summer ridging. With summertime thermal profiles prevailing, this will result in a generally high freezing level and warm/hot boundary layer temperatures. For these reasons, the primary hazards each day will be damaging wind gusts to around 60 mph, primarily associated with wet-microburst processes.

Tuesday through Saturday:

The upper high responsible for the ongoing heatwave does begin to retrograde as we head into next week, but at the same time upper troughing to the northeast of the area begins to weaken which results in 500 mb heights remaining roughly unchanged in the 590-591 DAM range. This does, however, result in mid and upper velocities dropping a small amount (e.g. 5-10 kts @ 500 mb). While small, the already meager shear/deep flow may somewhat alleviate the risk for the near daily strong to severe storms with damaging winds that we have been seeing over the last several days. Heat and humidity will be on the rebound in this more stagnant pattern and continued elevated upper height anomalies as heat indices likely once again threatening the 110 degree mark in some places. Heat headlines and advisories will likely be needed as the week progress. /SW/86/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will generally be light and northerly. Isolated SHRA/TSRA will be possible but limited coverage precludes inclusion in the TAF. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 98 73 92 73 / 10 0 30 30 Meridian 97 73 92 72 / 20 10 40 20 Vicksburg 96 74 92 73 / 20 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 99 74 95 73 / 20 10 60 20 Natchez 98 75 96 75 / 20 10 20 10 Greenville 97 73 91 72 / 10 10 30 40 Greenwood 95 72 89 71 / 0 10 30 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.