textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A winter storm is expected to bring significant impacts from a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow Friday evening into Sunday.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are also likely for Friday night into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Today and Tonight...

Broad longwave troughing has settled in over the central United States and is not projected to shift much over the next 48 hours or so. There is currently a minor short-wave progressing through the larger longwave pattern impacting the area, causing some showers and cloud coverage. Rain rates are not expected to be significant, with totals ranging from 0.00 to 0.25" across all sites. We are going to see a general warming trend through tomorrow as our wind pattern shifts from the onshore flow. This warming and attendant moisture ahead of the approaching system, will add fuel for the upcoming winter weather this weekend. We will continue to see light showers through the end of the week.

Thursday through Tuesday...

Overall, no significant changes have been made from the previous discussions as a potent winter storm will likely bring significant impacts to our CWA in the form of a wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow along with dangerously cold temperatures this weekend. The longwave trough aloft will steer reinforcing cool air masses toward the Gulf Coast through the end of this week. Thursday morning an Arctic airmass dropping out of Canada will fully settle into the central CONUS by Friday. Although the wintry mix precipitation will end Sunday evening, the dangerously cold temperatures will linger through Tuesday night. It's a bit early to make sweeping declarative statements about accumulations, but to provide some range on ice, our northwestern half, (as a line bisects from Natchez to Columbus) is where we are expecting to see the greatest impacts/accumulations. As a reminder: specific amounts and locations could still change at this time, as we are a few days out from this winter storm event.

Latest graphics and messaging are based on a reasonable range of possible ice/sleet/snow accumulations and reasonable earliest onset times for winter weather across various portions of the forecast area.

The core of the surface high with 1045mb+ pressure values will settle into the Upper Midwest before weakening, but this expansive frigid airmass will spread toward the south and linger into early next week. This will result in a strong north-south temperature gradient. To our west, a closed low pressure system moving from the Pacific over the Desert Southwest will influence what degree of winter weather impacts we experience here in our forecast area. Model guidance continues trending toward a consensus on the scenario for better northward transport of moisture and therefore more widespread winter weather impacts through the Gulf South and Midsouth regions. There are still differences for how progressive the system will be (as expected with southwest lows at this time of year), but sufficient agreement is there to extend the threat for wintry precip falling into the morning at least on Sunday. Regardless of the exact setup, the likelihood of at least 1/4 inch (Ice Storm Warning criteria) has increased to 50-80% for areas mainly along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Reasonable upper limits indicate around a 20-30% chance for 1 inch of ice accumulation in the northwestern portions of the CWA. This ice storm threat is the primary driver for expanding the winter storm impact areas on local graphics and in messaging.

No significant snowfall is forecast for any sites in our county warning area at this time.

The reinforcing nature of the airmass with precipitation falling through it will likely keep a portion of the area near or below freezing from Friday night through Sunday night, and even some Delta areas Monday or Tuesday. With overnight low temperatures in the 10s and 20s Friday night through early in next week, Dangerous Cold is also a high risk. Temperatures below freezing for a few days will pose risk to in-ground and exposed above-ground water pipes. Precautions should be taken over the next few days to prepare for the extended cold weather. Expect refining of details, especially once the air mass has moved into the area this weekend. Caution should be advised for referencing online snowfall maps from weather models. Even if the liquid equivalent totals are reasonable, many of these outputs rely on "standard" snow-to-liquid ratios of 10 to 1. Expected atmospheric parameters for this upcoming event currently limit snow-to-liquid ratios closer to 2 to 1 or 4 to 1, thus reducing possible snowfall amounts that could be achieved from the expected precipitation totals.

Overnight lows for next week, Sunday through Wednesday will be frigid in the wake of this system, areas north of Highway 82 will bottom out in the single digits, and southwards will range from 10- 15F, with far southeastern counties seeing 20F. Wednesday and Thursday night's lows do bounce back into the teens for areas north of I-20, and range from 20-25 to the south.

Buckle up for a very cold week, we are unlikely to see a rebound into seasonal norms until late next week./OAJ/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 239 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Light rain and scattered to broken VFR deck to start the period at all sites, with increasing chances for MVFR deck with rain through this evening. Eventually, prevailing IFR ceilings developing west to east between 00Z-06Z Thursday. Winds will also turn out of the north during this time. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 50 61 49 57 / 80 30 50 40 Meridian 47 59 47 57 / 80 50 60 40 Vicksburg 48 60 46 54 / 80 30 50 40 Hattiesburg 53 69 54 67 / 70 40 40 40 Natchez 52 64 51 60 / 80 20 40 40 Greenville 42 52 39 44 / 60 10 30 40 Greenwood 43 55 41 48 / 80 20 40 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for MSZ018-019-025>038-040>044-047>049-053.

LA...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025.

AR...Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon for ARZ074-075.