textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of moderate to heavy rain will fall across mainly southern portions of the forecast area through early Saturday morning.

- Dry and cooler conditions will return this weekend.

- The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will arrive Tuesday into Wednesday next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Forecast elements have been updated through the day tomorrow, including adjustments for POPs and weather where rain still falling for the next few hours. As a jet streak departs to the east of our area tonight, the area of ascent causing widespread rain across the Gulf Coast region will begin to lessen and translate east as well. This can already be seen in warming cloud top temperatures per infrared satellite loop. The clearing line from northwest will bring clearing rain chances and eventually clearing skies through tomorrow morning. Expect cold advection to push temperatures tonight down to around 50 degrees, but clearing skies tomorrow should still allow for high temperatures in the lower 70s, with a northerly breeze. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Tonight through next Thursday:

Light to moderate rain will continue to fall across the forecast area this afternoon into tonight, as a shortwave moves east through the region. A rumble or two of thunder and some localized flooding can't be ruled out. Both will primarily be possible across southern portions of the area, in the vicinity of the Highway 84 corridor. It's here where heavier downpours may fall over a longer period of time, thus prompting any potential localized flooding threat.

Through the early morning hours Saturday and toward day break, this activity will steadily come to an end from west to east across the CWA. Skies will also clear through the morning with breezy north winds expected. This combination will aid in drying things out across the region during the weekend, after a week of some much needed rainfall. The northerly winds will also result in some cooler conditions across the CWA over the weekend. This quieter weather will exist across the area into the start of the new work week. Conditions will also warm during time as moisture subtly begins increasing across the region.

Currently, the next best chance for rain is advertised during the Tuesday night through Wednesday night timeframe of next week. This is when another cold front is progged to swing east through the forecast area. There are some signals that some severe weather could accompany this system. However, it's far too early to have enough confidence that such a threat will indeed come to fruition, especially considering there are some timing and placement inconsistencies in the global models. Still, it's something to keep an eye on in later forecasts and outlooks. Finally come Thursday, quieter cooler conditions look to return to the forecast area. /19/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 651 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Rain and low stratus are the primary impacts to flight operations to start the period. Expect gradually clearing chances for rain from northwest to southeast through around 12Z Saturday. Ceilings will drop to to IFR range at several TAF sites before 06Z, and then improving to VFR conditions between around 12Z-15Z. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 51 71 46 74 / 100 0 0 0 Meridian 50 71 44 74 / 100 10 0 0 Vicksburg 51 73 46 76 / 100 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 52 72 45 76 / 100 20 0 0 Natchez 51 72 46 76 / 100 0 0 0 Greenville 50 73 49 76 / 50 0 0 0 Greenwood 50 73 47 75 / 60 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.