textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with a warming trend expected through Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather return mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Through Tonight: Warmer with continued dry weather through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed another shortwave trough within the northwest flow aloft that will swing across our CWA today. This will help a surface high just to our northwest drop south to the Gulf coast by this afternoon and then shift east tonight. This will result in return flow this afternoon that will help temperatures top out several degrees warmer than on Saturday. Tonight the shortwave trough will continue shifting east of our CWA while northwest flow aloft remains over the region. The surface high will continue shifting east as well but continue to ridge back to the west across the Gulf coast. This will help result in warmer morning lows Monday. /22/

Monday through late next week...

Drier conditions will continue through mid week before a cold front will bring another round of rain and storms to the area late Wednesday into early Thursday.

With the longer wave trough over the east CONUS suppressing the subtropical jet to the south, west northwest flow over the region will continue to reinforce dry air early this week. Meanwhile, a spoke of subtropical jet energy causes the trough out west to dig, which will reinforce ridging over the area by late Tuesday. Previously it was thought that the cut off upper low would phase with this piece, but guidance tonight has come in less phased and the upper low is left behind. Moisture will slowly begin to recover ahead of a surface low, however remnant dry air from the surface high lingers into early Wednesday, especially further east. With the surface high directing moisture transport west towards Texas, the window for quality moisture recovery appears somewhat limited. All the while, with the reinforced ridging deflecting the midlevel speed max to the north and west, main ascent should remain north of the area. This introduces a more conditional severe threat. Guidance tonight suggests the possibility of the front outrunning rain and storms, so it may tend to become more anafrontal further overnight. While there is some uncertainty, during a window roughly in the Wednesday evening time frame, moisture and shear are ample and so will continue to message slight risk and monitor. It is worth noting that at this time timing appears to be mainly overnight, Wednesday night into Thursday morning, and this too could make the threat more conditional as well.

There is now better agreement that the surface cold front stalls near the coast, which leaves low rain chances for the southern half of the area for late week. And this makes sense considering the weak upper forcing and surface low lifting north. Guidance has come into better agreement tonight that the upper Baja low ejects this weekend, keeping southwest flow locked in around the reinforced ridge, As such, low rain chances should continue with this scenario./SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 76 53 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 75 49 80 53 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 78 54 80 59 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 77 50 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 78 53 80 58 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 78 56 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 76 56 80 60 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.