textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are likely over the southeast half of the area Christmas morning. - Well above normal temperatures will continue through this weekend.

- Much colder temperatures are expected early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1006 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Evening near term guidance continues to show the sfc high propagating eastward across the Gulf. Light southerly winds will continue to lock in low-level moisture. Similar to the previous night, HREF guidance shows high probabilities (50-60%) for dense fog across much of the area. no changes have been made to the fog graphic and "Elevated" risk will continue to be advertised for areas east of the Natchez Trace. Likewise, the "Limited" risk for dense fog will remain in place for areas west of the Natchez Trace. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect from 10 PM this evening until 10 AM Christmas morning for areas highlighted in the "Elevated" risk. Overnight lows will dip into the mid/upper 50s areawide. Updates are out. /CR/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Tonight...

The surface high is expected to continue progressing eastward into tonight while light southerly winds continue to lock in low level moisture. Much like last night, dense fog is expected to set up once again, though with the surface high centered further east, confidence is higher east of the Natchez Trace. Pressure gradient on the western periphery of the surface high will keep surface winds ever so slightly stronger, 5-7mph. This is enough to lower confidence for dense fog west of the Natchez Trace tonight. Strong crossover temps 5-7 degrees also boost confidence for eastern areas. In light of the Christmas holiday and high confidence, have opted to issue a dense fog advisory in advance, as well as associated elevated HWO graphic.

Through mid next week...

Otherwise, highly anomalous ridging over central and southern CONUS will maintain quiet conditions this holiday week, with much above normal, even near record, temperatures. Highs will generally be in the 70s and lows generally in the upper 50s, but some spots could peak at 80 degrees by Fri/Sat. The 850 thermal ridge peaks Saturday and this should be our best chance for 80 degrees.

By Sunday, upper shortwave/upper low and associated surface low over the great lakes region will drag a cold front across the area, thereby increasing rain chances for Sunday into Sunday night. Thunderstorms are unlikely given the lack of instability, however the pressure gradient tightens with the front, so expect some gusty winds Sunday night into Monday morning. Will have to watch how this evolves as a limited wind graphic may eventually be needed down the line. The wind and lingering rain should keep much of the area above freezing Sunday night.

Winter returns early next week as a cold polar surface high propagates towards the region in the wake of the cold front. Long nights of sub-freezing temperatures are expected with lows in the low to mid 20s both Mon and Tue nights. Predominantly northwest flow regime sets up next week, which should hold temperatures cooler along with some clouds. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Cigs and visibilities have begin to lower at southern TAF sites. After 09Z Thursday, IFR/LIFR ceilings and conditions are expected across multiple TAF sites except for GLH-GWO where MVFR ceilings are expected. IFR/LIFR conditions will prevail through 16Z Thursday. Amendments may be needed across multiple sites through the overnight period as conditions worsen. After 16Z Thursday, conditions will begin to slowly improve Thursday morning from the northwest. VFR ceilings will prevail across all TAF sites by 18Z Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 79 56 77 59 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 77 53 75 55 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 78 58 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 79 55 75 57 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 80 57 76 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 76 59 75 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 79 58 76 61 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for MSZ027>033- 035>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for LAZ016-024>026.

AR...None.