textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Slight risk for severe weather today with wind and hail being the primary threats.

- The most widespread and significant rainfall event since January is expected for the entire area.

- There is potential for severe storms across the area Monday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Today into tonight...

An active period of storms is developing across the region. A line of storms is propagating southward into the region, forced in part from frontal convergence and increasing moist ascent (PWs approaching one and three quarters inch) will drive strong to severe thunderstorm development across the region. Upper synoptic analysis this afternoon indicate stalled Baja cold core low while strong positive vorticity advection (PVA) off to the north. This is keeping our region caught in the middle of the most efficient ascent off to the north. However, the southward sinking cold front is aiding in frontal convergence and widespread MCS sagging southward into the Delta as we speak. Broad southwesterly deep shear is around 30-35kts, but MCS orientation is more line parallel to the shear. This is driving a more cold pool dominant MCS into the area, which could limit the most efficient line orthogonal orientation to any north-south bowing segments. Lapse rates, 850mb temperatures and DCAPE are highly anomalous, generally in excess of the 90th percentile to daily maximum values. All of this being said, damaging wind gusts, hail to the size of half dollars and brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially in any areas of favorable line segment shear orientation or storm cell mergers. Severe thunderstorm watches are in effect across the area, with one in the Delta expiring at 2PM and the other watch, excluding the southern three tier of counties (Marion, Lamar and Forrest), through 9PM. HWO graphic looked good overall, just some minor adjustments to the timing were needed.

This front will be slow to move through and line parallel flow should lead to a quick locally heavy rainfall transition. Flash flooding will be most likely in areas of training and storm cell mergers, potentially greater than 3 inches in some areas. Expanding the HWO graphic southeast to account for some of the robust storm development in the south and potential storm mergers in these areas. CAMs hit a little harder on this. There is less focus to the northwest, so removing some of the Limited area and focused to central to southeast areas.

Temperatures are warming nearly 20F above normal, well into the mid to upper 80s in some areas. Most severe storm threat will lessen just around or after midnight but rain chances persist. The front will slowly sag southeast and continue into the Interstate 20 corridor through tonight, leading to continued rain and storm chances overnight. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 18F to 22F above normal (58F to 66F).

Relevant portion of previous discussion is attached below. /DC/

Sunday into Sunday night: The cold front is expected to stall across our southern zones Sunday and our flow aloft will become nearly zonal downstream of the cutoff low over Baja.

Monday through Friday: The stalled front will remain the focus for additional convection Monday as it begins lifting north as a warm front. A few subtle disturbances combined with daytime heating and the warm front will lead to a few strong to severe storms across our CWA during the afternoon and early evening. Damaging wind gusts and hail will be the main threats. The cutoff low will drift east Monday but then open up and eject out more rapidly Tuesday. Ridging surface and aloft will strengthen back over our CWA Tuesday and this looks to be a dry day before rain chances start increasing from the west ahead of the approaching upper level trough that once was the cutoff low. Initially heights look rather high but a potent northern disturbance will come in phase with the southern trough and bring a threat of severe storm development across our CWA Wednesday. This system looks to bring a clearing front across our CWA Wednesday night and by Thursday a much cooler and drier airmass will be over our region. Friday morning is expected to be the coldest morning with low to mid 40s areawide. /22/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A busy aviation day is in store. VFR prevails through this afternoon, with thunderstorms in the west. Coverage will gradually increase this afternoon and evening. Storms will clear the area by 8z. In the wake, trailing stratiform will lead to low IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 75 62 81 / 80 70 10 50 Meridian 62 75 62 81 / 90 80 20 50 Vicksburg 63 75 61 81 / 80 70 10 50 Hattiesburg 66 79 65 84 / 70 80 10 40 Natchez 64 77 64 81 / 80 80 10 50 Greenville 58 69 59 77 / 80 40 0 70 Greenwood 61 73 59 80 / 80 50 10 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.