textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

- Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving holiday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

In the wake of the front, surface high pressure will build across the Ozarks into the OH Valley by late Sunday. There could be a brief round of fog later tonight with the weak front and humid boundarly layer, but enough mixing should occur to help keep the stratus above ground for the most part. Otherwise, with drier air and shortwave ridging, dry and milder conditions are expected tomorrow.

Next week (Monday-Friday): A strong cold core is progged to move across eastern CO and eject out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains in NE to KS in the Central Plains. Sharp jet energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong southwesterly shear (30- 55kts) will set up but remain line- parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate 20.

With southwesterly mean bulk shear and timing generally close to the diurnal minimum, this looks to be short duration potential. However, there are some lapse rates, favorable thermo (6C to 6.5C in mid levels and 700 J/kg to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE) and slower eastward progression there remains low end severe potential Monday night persisting into Tuesday afternoon. Amplitude differences of the closed low aloft/shortwave persist, with the Euro slightly digging a little more. This will affect how long rain chances persist another 24-36 hours.

Rain totals remain significant with amounts continueing to be up to about 1.5 inches (locally higher in convection or training line- parallel storms). However, recent dryness and limited preceding rain will help mitigate any flooding concerns and will continue to hold off on messaging. Synoptic discontinuity is decreasing, with Euro and GFS trending towards further north amplitude in northern Plains to Great Lakes, but intensity of closed low is question.

Northerly flow/subsidence and a 1028-1033mb surface high and drier thermal profiles (PWs around quarter inch) favor dryness and seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into late Thanksgiving week (Thursday into Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s are possible both Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a light frost possible Thursday night. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ceilings and visibility have improved from this morning and are projected to remain VFR across all zones for the rest of the day. Temperatures lowering overnight and residual moisture locked into the low levels from previous days' rainfall will allow for another round of stratus development along eastern zones tonight./OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 51 71 50 76 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 51 72 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 51 70 51 77 / 0 0 0 20 Hattiesburg 53 76 52 80 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 50 72 52 79 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 51 68 50 74 / 0 0 0 30 Greenwood 51 70 49 75 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.