textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

- Low potential for strong to severe storms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 353 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Through tonight: Patchy dense fog has developed over east Mississippi this morning but satellite imagery and surface observations confirmed a broken layer of stratus covering most of our CWA. The dense fog development was along the eastern edge of the stratus layer but there were breaks in the stratus over our delta region where additional dense fog development is likely. Current thinking suggests that the dense fog will remain limited in coverage so a Dense Fog Advisory is not anticipated.

Surface ridging will continue to nose across our CWA from the east through tonight while a low pressure system over the northern Plains shifts east to the Great Lakes region tonight. There will be a tightening of our pressure gradient between the ridging from the east to the surface low over the northern Plains. This will result in breezy winds developing tonight so dense fog development will be less of a concern. Per the 00Z Tue JAN sounding, PWATs were less than a half inch. Moisture will increase today and tonight ahead of the approaching cold front associated with the surface low that will be nearing the Great Lakes region by sunrise Wednesday. By sunrise Wednesday our PWATs will be back above an inch over the northwest half of the CWA but no precipitation is expected in our CWA. There may still be some persistent stratus around this afternoon but temperatures will top out warmer today and remain nearly ten degrees warmer Wednesday morning than this morning. /22/

Mid week through early next week...

Above normal temperatures maintain late this week with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s and lows in the 50s and 60s. This is about +20 above seasonal norms. Thursday appears to be the warmest day with the peak of a low level thermal ridge. Record high temperatures are possible.

The ridge flattens and breaks down late week as we transition to a SW flow regime. Guidance continues the trend towards a less amplified pattern, with instead subtle shortwaves embedded in SW flow. This should support a wetter pattern for late week. Nothing in particular stands out at the moment in terms of flood risk, especially given dry antecedent conditions, but would keep an eye out for heavy rain with anomalous moisture and persistent rainfall with disturbances moving along the stalled boundary and lack of airmass change. The axis of greatest totals at this time appears to be northwest of the Natchez Trace.

A more stout shortwave Saturday could carry the potential for severe with a greater low level response. Moisture is sufficient amid a strongly sheared environment south of I-20, so would not rule out the potential for a future convective outlook for Saturday. That said, there's disagreement in the guidance regarding the evolution of this feature. Will closely monitor. The associated cold front pushes out and ushers in drier, colder air for early next week.

We flip the switch early next week in the wake of this weekend's activity as a piece of a Canadian surface high propagates towards the region. This airmass is characterized by near freezing/freezing temps, with hard freezing temps in the Golden Triangle, but cold should not reach dangerous thresholds. Still, in the wake of the potential record warmth this week, this could have an impact on vegetation. This burst of cold is really short-lived, as above normal temps look to return by the middle of next week./SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

IFR/LIFR cigs wl prevail through 15Z before improving to MVFR. MVFR cigs wl prevail until after 20Z before improving to VFR. VFR conditions will then prevail until after 07Z before MVFR cigs redevelop across the area and prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 69 57 77 61 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 70 55 77 59 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 69 57 76 61 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 74 58 81 61 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 71 58 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 66 57 71 61 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 69 58 74 61 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.