textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- "Limited" heat stress will be confined to the south today.

- "Limited Threat" for flooding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Afternoon water vapor satellite imagery/RAP analysis continues to show a series of shortwaves tracking east across the central Plains and Tennessee valley today. Visible satellite and surface analysis depicts a cold front stretching from the mid Mississippi river valley back across the southern Plains. The persistent and rather flat mid level ridge to our southwest and the surface ridge across the northern Gulf will try to hang tough through the period as the cold front drops into our region. This will result in little additional southerly progress of the boundary and as is often the case in June it will likely make only sluggish progress through the short term period. Remnant outflow from last evening's convection to our north coupled with daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to an increase in development of showers and thunderstorms across our northwest zones that will continue to increase in coverage through tonight along and ahead of the cold front. Temperatures today across the north will be held down several degrees compared to the last several days. Highest temperatures will be across our south and the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity will result in peak heat index values in the lower 100'sF. Temperatures tonight are expected to bottom out close to normal thanks to the widespread rain anticipated. /22/86/

Monday through the end of the week (updated)...

A slowly sagging, nearly stalled, frontal boundary will become the focus for several rounds of heavy rainfall this week across the area. Several surges of rich Gulf moisture with PWAT in excess of 2 inches along and ahead of the boundary will support very efficient rain rates and multiple days of heavy rainfall. Guidance continues to show totals in the 2-4 inch range which could fall locally in a short period of time. An additional surge of moisture associated with a tropical wave that becomes embedded in weak westerlies is anticipated for the later half of the week. Given antecedent conditions, this additional round would likely exacerbate flood threat, especially for areas that receive great amounts during the first half of the week. Currently, there is a great deal of uncertainly regarding the timing and intensity of this feature with most guidance suggesting the wave will rather quickly eject out along the stalled frontal boundary and move through with little fanfare outside of an additional 1-3 inches of efficient rainfall. The deterministic ECMWF as well as some of its ensemble members continues to suggest a more impactful, meteorologically unusual scenario. In the Euro camp, the tropical wave is slower to eject eastward and as it interacts with the stalled boundary, rapidly deepens through a combination of baroclinic and barotropic processes. 00z deterministic ECMWF guidance brought minimum surface pressures down below 990 mb. While the 06Z run is not as aggressive (nor the 12Z), which would be approaching "tropical storm intensity" were it to be deemed subtropical in nature/sufficiently warm-core, it is still substantially stronger than the rest of the deterministic guidance. The Euro is rather clear in it's interaction of the tropical wave, the surface boundary, and an upper trough and the system were it to develop would have features of both tropical/nontropical systems and the 12Z Euro is even clearer in that evolution than previous runs. Were something of this stronger variety to occur, significant flash flooding could be possible across portions of our area and stretching west and southwest into LA/TX. Suffice it to say that with little cross- model support and the rarity of a tropical/subtropical system to meaningfully intensify while inland, this particular solution is not considered the most likely, but will require cautious attention. Regardless of how this unusually high uncertainty case plays out, rain likely continues even in the wake as the stalled frontal boundary and low level ridge reinforce the tropical airmass. Looking beyond day 6/7, there remains little indication of any drier patterns in the extended range. /86/SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions will continue to prevail through a majority of the period at all sites. Isolated to scattered TSRA/RA will move into the forecast area this afternoon and possibly impact sites through 00Z this evening before gradually subsiding. Winds will be gusty and southerly/southwesterly through 0Z before subsiding overnight. By 06Z MVFR conditions will prevail as widespread -RA and lowered ceilings will be possible areawide./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 80 70 81 / 80 100 80 90 Meridian 73 81 69 80 / 60 100 80 90 Vicksburg 73 80 70 82 / 80 100 80 80 Hattiesburg 76 84 72 79 / 70 90 90 100 Natchez 75 81 71 81 / 90 90 90 100 Greenville 71 80 67 84 / 60 60 30 30 Greenwood 71 81 67 85 / 50 60 40 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.