textproduct: Jackson

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Mainly afternoon and evening storm threats continue to be a concern with a marginal (Level 1 of 5) severe risk for damaging wind gusts today and again Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

For early to mid week: The threat for dangerous heat has lessened a bit as the subtropical ridge has weakened its grip over the Lower MS Valley region. The troughing in it's place is supporting cyclonic flow and a series of weak mesoscale convective vortices crossing the forecast area, with the latest MCV helping to initiate a few strong to severe downbursts this afternoon/evening in a hot, unstable, and very moist airmass. There should be another MCV moving in Monday with another marginal damaging wind risk expected for isolated storms in the ArkLaMiss region per SPC. Confidence isn't the greatest in terms of the area for this risk, so keep up with the latest outlooks. In terms of heat danger threats, we should stay mainly below limited thresholds for the most part.

Late week into next weekend: The ridge is forecast by most guidance to rebuild, and this should lessen convective rainfall coverage while allowing heat stress to intensify some. Additional heat related graphics for limited/elevated heat threats may eventually become necessary. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period for all sites. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will be found across most of the CWA this afternoon into early evening, as such a tempo for TS can be found in sites expected to receive convection this afternoon. Early morning tomorrow may see some thin fog/mist development especially along central through southern sites./OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 90 73 90 / 20 40 20 50 Meridian 74 91 73 91 / 20 40 20 40 Vicksburg 74 90 74 91 / 30 50 30 40 Hattiesburg 74 91 74 91 / 30 70 20 50 Natchez 74 91 74 91 / 30 60 40 50 Greenville 73 90 73 91 / 30 30 30 20 Greenwood 73 91 73 92 / 30 40 30 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.

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