textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will impact areas south of I-20 again Wednesday morning. - Much warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of this week. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be late this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Through Wednesday: Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a closed low over northern Illinois. This closed low will track east and open up tonight as it supports an attendant surface low that will also be tracking east. The surface low will drag a weakening cold front into northern Mississippi that will bring a diminishing chance of light rain close to our northern most zones. As the chance for any measurable rain in our CWA remains too low to carry pops wl continue a dry forecast through the period. The main concern for tonight remains the redevelopment of dense fog across our south. The surface ridge will continue to nose west across the Gulf coast through Wednesday. This will maintain a moist low level feed from the Gulf into our CWA. Areas of dense fog are likely along the Highway 84 Corridor and a Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for our southern zones. Wednesday in addition to the surface ridging across the south, ridging aloft will strengthen over our region. This will help lead to well above normal afternoon highs in the lower 80s at most locations. Although most sites will remain a few degrees shy of record highs, the record high is only 81F at Greenwood for the date so that site may set a new record high. Lows tonight will be well above normal as well. Most sites will fall shy of record warm lows but the record warm low for Greenville is only 62F so that site may tie or set a new record warm low for the date. /22/

Wednesday night through Monday: The prevailing upper-level weather pattern across the CONUS for the remainder of the week through this weekend will feature ridging centered over the Gulf Coast/Southeast and troughing over the West/Southwest. Minor shortwave disturbances will be deflected north of our forecast area under this pattern, and then a more pronounced shortwave trough will eject eastward from the western trough Thursday through Saturday. The main chance for showers or thunderstorms in this 7-day forecast cycle will track with this disturbance and its associated low pressure system.

At this time, some thunder is possible during the Thursday night through Friday time frame, but the lack of height falls and weak low-level forcing across our area suggest no organized risk for severe thunderstorms at this time. Additionally, the wave may pass during the late night to early morning hours with limited surface-based instability and warm mid-level temperature profile. The expectation at this time is for potentially heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms with localized rainfall totals of one to two inches possible. Current guidance favors the heaviest rainfall setting up south of the I-20 corridor. The window for the most significant heavy-rain potential looks to be Friday afternoon and early evening. Then a cold front should arrive Friday night and moderate temperatures a little closer to normal for mid/late November as we go through the weekend into early next week. /NF/EC/KP/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Low stratus and patchy fog, some dense and periodically reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile, will again be possible through mid- morning at area TAF sites mainly south of the Interstate 20 corridor. This is where flight categories are forecast to range between MVFR/LIFR status. The best potential for any dense fog currently resides at sites along the vicinity of the Highway 84 corridor across South Mississippi, i.e. KHEZ, KPIB, & KHBG. At remaining TAF sites, i.e. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, due to mainly patchy low stratus, a mix of VFR/MVFR categories will exist through mid- morning. By 17Z Wednesday, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites. Winds overnight will be light from the south southwest between 3-5 knots to calm. However by late morning Wednesday, and continuing into the afternoon, winds will be from the southwest between 5-8 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 82 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 60 82 58 82 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 65 82 62 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 84 59 82 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 62 83 60 81 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 81 64 80 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 64 81 63 81 / 0 0 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for MSZ057>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Wednesday for LAZ024- 026.

AR...None.