textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues this weekend.

- "Limited Threat" for flooding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 136 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Tonight through next Friday...Some temporary relief from the ongoing hot and very humid conditions will come Sunday, with even more relief expected through at least the middle of the upcoming work week. More on that in a bit. While it'll remain steamy Sunday, afternoon heat index values currently look slightly lower than what we've experienced the past couple of days, due to a frontal boundary dropping south into northern portions late in the day. This will yield better rain chances across this part of the CWA. As a result, the "Heat Advisory" that's been in effect since Friday will not be extended into Sunday on this afternoon's package. Still, heat indices do look to approach 105F over some western and southern portions of the area Sunday, generally away from the better rain chances. Therefore, a "Limited Threat" for dangerous heat stress will exist over these portions of the forecast area Sunday afternoon.

For the rest of this afternoon and into tonight, isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible during the heat of the afternoon. Models do try to bring a couple of outflow boundaries south and into the CWA this evening and again around day break Sunday. This will keep some rain chances in the forecast, particularly in the north, during the overnight hours. However, models are currently in good agreement with weakening and a gradual dissipation of convection associated with them as they approach northern portions of the forecast area.

Although the heat tapers off Monday through mid-week, highs from the upper 70s and into the 80s, moisture will be at a premium across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan and the western gulf, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values generally hovering between 2-2.5 inches. As a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section and into and through our region through Wednesday, a front will sink south into the forecast area. As it slows/stalls and eventually washes out Monday through Wednesday, bouts of heavy rain are forecast to affect the forecast area. Then Thursday and into Friday, the remnants of said tropical wave are currently progged to lift northeast into and through the Lower Mississippi River Valley, maintaining good rain chances across the forecast area.

Currently, a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area through at least the middle of the week. Copious amounts of deep moisture over the region looks to result in high rainfall rates in a short amount of time, along with the training of convection with the passing of each disturbance, which could result in at least flash flooding. During the Monday through Wednesday period, rainfall amounts between 2-4 inches and locally higher currently look possible. This is still a couple of days out, especially the potential for any heavy rain continuing Thursday into Friday. However, if model trends continue, an additional 1-3 inches may be possible Thursday through Friday. Of course, this will continued to be monitored in the latest model runs. So please continue to monitor the latest forecast as adjustments to both the threat area and timeframe of any heavy rain and flooding potential will likely need to be made. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Isolated to scattered aftn SHRA/TSRA wl affect the ne and east MS TAF sites Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 76 93 73 81 / 0 10 90 100 Meridian 76 94 73 81 / 10 10 80 90 Vicksburg 77 93 73 81 / 0 30 90 90 Hattiesburg 76 94 75 85 / 10 10 60 80 Natchez 76 94 74 83 / 0 30 80 100 Greenville 78 91 71 79 / 10 40 80 70 Greenwood 77 92 71 81 / 10 40 80 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034- 035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.