textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen before moving northwards towards a landfall tomorrow evening along the northern Gulf coast.

- Gusty winds and heavy rainfall/flash flooding related to the Hurricane Isaias may impact our area late Friday into Saturday.

- Fire weather danger remain increased today and Friday in northern and western portions of the area ahead of Isaias.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 507 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Today through Wednesday:

Hot and dry conditions are ongoing ahead of Hurricane Isaias approach to the Gulf coast. Breezy conditions combined with hot/dry conditions in place, there is a potential for fire weather concerns through Friday for the northern portions of the area.

Hurricane Isaias continues to move northeast in the central Gulf, eventually turning northward towards the AL/FL coastline over the next 24 to 36 hours. Isaias has strengthened to 100mph sustained winds with the satellite presentation improving and pressure (975mb) continuing to deepen. GOES East infrared imagery currently indicate some increasing shear but a deep burst of convection is developing on the western side. Center of circulation will remain mostly east of area, making landfall in the FL Panhandle just east of the AL/FL state line. This landfall location will keep greatest impacts further east. However, tightening gradient on the northwest side of the decaying system will bring potential of wind gusts of 40-50 mph across the region. Several convective allowing models (REFS/HRRR) and probabilities (REFS probs >40mph) indicate potential of stronger gusts in east-central MS up the Interstate 59 into Highway 45 corridor and potentially further west into the Jackson Metro to Delta region where northerly winds lock in as the system is east-northeast of us in central AL into the day Saturday. Tropical Storm Wind probs are in the low categorical range (10 to 30 percent) but enough to support added tropical headlines. For this reason, a Tropical Storm Watch was added for Forrest, Jones, Jasper, Newton, Neshoba, Winston, Noxubee, Kemper, Lauderdale and Clarke Counties through Saturday evening. Will continue to monitor for any potential in northward expansion of the Tropical Storm Watch into Oktibbeha, Clay to Lowndes County or any upgrades to a Warning. An Elevated was added earlier areawide to the HWO graphic for gusty winds, just due to that better support in the CAMs and high- resolution ensemble wind probs for gusty winds.

Flash flooding is also possible starting Friday night through Saturday night. Expected totals are 2-4 inches of rain in north central, northeast to east MS while less in the 1-3 inch range in northwest, central to southeast MS. This is also due to warm cloud processes/tropical rain. As Isaias progress closer, additional updates will be provided so please remain up to date with the latest information.

Once the remnants of Isaias progress away from the area, hot and dry conditions will return as high pressure builds over the region. /DC/SW/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 702 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR prevails. Calm weather will prevail for the next 12-18 hours as high clouds associated with hurricane Isaias gradually build over the area. Upon its approach to the coast, easterly winds will steadily increase from 3-5kts upwards to 15-17kts. Around noon wind gusts will be around 18kts, and by the end of this TAF period, 7 PM, winds in the southeast will be gusting to 30+kt. The storm will begin to complicate air travel with gusty winds and low level wind shear in the southeast late tomorrow afternoon. -RA may also accompany the gusty winds and may lead to MVFR ceiling at HBG and PIB. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 88 62 72 / 0 0 80 90 Meridian 61 84 60 73 / 0 10 90 90 Vicksburg 61 91 62 73 / 0 0 50 70 Hattiesburg 64 85 61 76 / 0 30 90 50 Natchez 63 89 63 75 / 0 0 50 60 Greenville 62 92 64 72 / 0 0 50 80 Greenwood 63 92 61 71 / 0 0 70 100

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch from Friday evening through Saturday evening for MSZ026>033-038-039-046-052-058.

Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066- 074.

LA...None. AR...None.