textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress are expected during the late morning and afternoon hours each day over the first half of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Through Tuesday: Heat is becoming the main forecast focus as mid/upper ridging begins to build across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. High temperatures over the next few days will begin to reach the upper 90s across the area to near 100 across the ArkLaMiss Delta. Heat indices will reach the 105-110F range especially over the western half of the area, thus a heat advisory is in effect today for these areas. Additional advisories may be needed beyond today.

While the main upper trough axis that helped organize convection across northern portions of the area on Saturday has begun to shift east, remnants of this feature remain across central/ southern sections of the forecast area and this is the most likely focus for diurnal development later today. A few of these storms could again produce strong wind gusts. By Monday and Tuesday, convective coverage is expected to be more isolated as the ridge strengthens.

Wednesday through next Sunday: Low level flow will become more easterly over the latter half of the week, ushering in a relatively drier airmass, especially by Thursday. This airmass will still support hot days, but with dewpoints dropping into 60s and perhaps the 50s, this will notably reduce heat stress danger through the end of the week. While days will still be relatively warm, mornings will see temps dipping into the 60s more often across much of the area. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again around Friday into Saturday, with returning potential for diurnal convection each day.

Long range guidance has been hinting at a potential shift the following week toward temps closer to daily normals, with perhaps highs only in the 80s and lows in the 60s in some areas...not a real taste of fall, but perhaps finally an end to the frequent spells of excessive heat? We're keeping our fingers crossed, stay tuned. /DL/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

VFR conditions are currently anticipated to prevail through the TAF period. However, aftn TSRA may come in vcty of the northern and southwest TAF sites while scattered TSRA wl be psbl cntrl and east. The TSRA my briefly result in lower flight restrictions. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 96 73 97 72 / 30 10 10 0 Meridian 97 72 99 72 / 30 0 0 0 Vicksburg 96 74 97 73 / 30 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 95 73 97 72 / 40 0 10 0 Natchez 96 74 96 73 / 20 10 20 0 Greenville 98 74 100 74 / 20 10 10 0 Greenwood 98 73 100 72 / 10 0 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>027-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055- 059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.