textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonal temperatures will be in place through the week ahead.

- Most nights should see temperatures fall to near or below freezing this week.

- We are monitoring for the potential of a significant cold air event this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Through Tuesday: Continued dry and warmer through the period. Mid afternoon surface analysis had a 1032mb high centered over our western zones. This surface high will shift to the southwest through Tuesday becoming centered over the Texas coast Tuesday afternoon. This will result in return flow across our CWA by sunrise that will continue through the day Tuesday. Otherwise, a split flow regime will continue in the short term with the southern branch of the jet stream becoming more prominent over our CWA. A cut off low spinning over the baja peninsula this afternoon will get caught up by the southern branch and weaken as it shifts east northeast through Tuesday. Currently this feature was sending plenty of high clouds across our CWA from the west southwest. These high clouds will likely hinder prime radiational cooling tonight and combined with the light return flow by morning, help temperatures bottom out warmer than last night, and with the warmest morning lows occuring over our western zones. The dampening cut off low and the left front quad of a southern branch jet streak will approach our CWA Tuesday and serve to increase cloud cover during the afternoon but no precipitation is anticipated over our southern zones until the evening. Temperatures Tuesday afternoon will top out slightly warmer than normal. /22/

Tuesday night through Monday: A highly amplified western ridge to eastern trough pattern over North America will be the primary weather influence through the long range forecast. This will allow for a couple of intrusions of anomalously cold polar air into the forecast area. The first will be centered from late Wed through Thu night, and the second "colder" surge should be centered around the Sunday to Monday time frame. Between these events, brief warm-ups will occur, but the long range temperatures should be rather cold overall, with the potential for dangerously cold wind chill/ temperature readings being possible at some point late in the forecast.

Most likely, the dangerous cold, if it occurs, will be "advisory" level and not long-lasting. As has been discussed recently, winter weather threats remain low for the long range forecast. The majority of guidance do not back the mid level flow enough for sufficient moist ascent within the cold air. It seems any wintry wx impacts in this weather pattern may be tied to light post-frontal precip this weekend, and that is what we are monitoring right now. Overall, most of the guidance is dry, and any messaging at this point would be focused on cold weather impacts. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 31 60 42 58 / 0 0 20 20 Meridian 30 59 41 58 / 0 0 20 10 Vicksburg 32 60 42 59 / 0 0 20 20 Hattiesburg 31 62 44 65 / 0 0 30 10 Natchez 33 60 43 62 / 0 10 20 10 Greenville 33 60 42 55 / 0 0 0 30 Greenwood 33 60 41 55 / 0 0 0 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.