textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring showers across the area this evening, followed by a colder airmass.

- Periods of cold weather with mostly dry conditions can be expected through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Through Saturday night: We're in for quite a pattern change between today and tomorrow. Within WAA ahead of an approaching cold front and under full to near full insolation, temps are running above normal with a gusty southerly wind. This front is already on our doorstep and will push through late this afternoon into this evening, departing to our southeast overnight. Though precip is limited along the front right now, a band of rain showers will develop around or shortly after sunset roughly along the Natchez Trace. Areas north and west of here may miss out on rain altogether. For areas that will see rain, amounts will be less than a quarter inch for most with localized amounts up to a half inch.

Conditions will remain breezy and turn colder behind the front tonight into Saturday. Some areas, especially the northern half of our area will see sun during the day, though clouds will be peskier for locations farther south. Forecast confidence remains high in a drier/more eastward solution with a secondary wave Saturday afternoon and evening, and at this stage, the chance for measurable rain is increasingly limited to coastal MS, though we can't entirely rule out stray nonimpactful sprinkles or flurries mainly along the I-59 corridor. What we will experience is blustery conditions in increasing cold advection Saturday night with wind chills falling into the teens and 20s and temps falling to the 20s by Sunday morning.

Sunday through Tuesday: Cold and dry will be the main theme over the first part of next week. Beyond this weekend's fronts there will be a reinforcing front on Monday sustaining the colder, drier airmass. Days will be chilly with highs mainly in the 40s and 50s with wind chills lingering in the 30s in many areas especially on Sunday. During the overnights and mornings, a widespread freeze is expected with a hard freeze possible. Monday night into Tuesday morning looks to be our coldest time frame with temps in the teens possible across parts of AR and north MS. Fortunately wind is expected to be light during this time frame, limiting the added impact to apparent temps. Some areas may approach Cold Weather Advisory criteria, but given this appears to be a marginal case and with temps recovering during the day, there are no imminent plans to highlight the cold weather threat.

Wednesday through next Friday: Over the latter half of the week, forecast confidence decreases as model solutions diverge and fluctuate run to run with the handling of an active upper trough. We do have reasonable confidence that the weather pattern will shift back to more seasonable temps with returning chances for rain showers. It's a bit too early to pin down timing and location details, so the forecast will reflect ongoing precip chances through much of this period. /DL/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR/MVFR flight conditions across sites as a cold front brings-RA/RA along/south of I-20 and eastern MS. Winds will gradually shift to the northwest overnight. -RA/RA is expected to decrease after 09Z Saturday. VFR flight condition with winds of 10 kts/gusts near 20 kts expected over the day. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 37 52 25 / 10 70 0 0 Meridian 64 37 53 24 / 0 80 0 0 Vicksburg 68 35 52 24 / 10 40 0 0 Hattiesburg 67 43 56 30 / 0 70 10 10 Natchez 70 38 53 26 / 0 50 0 0 Greenville 63 33 47 23 / 10 20 0 0 Greenwood 64 33 50 21 / 20 40 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.