textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will be minimal for much of the area through the upcoming week. Scattered showers are possible today across southern Mississippi with isolated showers possible elsewhere. Better rain chances return early next week.

- Continued dry ground conditions, breezy and dry weather on Thursday will result in increased fire danger.

- Colder conditions will return late Thursday through this weekend. Frost or a light freeze is possible Friday night and Saturday night, with greater odds across northern and eastern Mississippi.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Today through next Monday... The primary focus during this forecast period currently revolves around a "limited" concern for fire danger on Thursday, some isolated to scattered rain chances today as well as Sunday, and the potential for at to below freezing low temperatures Friday night through Sunday night.

Conditions will remain warm today ahead of a cold front that will move through the region tonight into early Thursday morning.Ahead of this front, showers are spreading northeastward from central and southern Louisiana and will bring rain chances (50-60%) to southern Mississippi with isolated chances (<20%) elsewhere. Areas of the Pinebelt could see up to 0.25" of total rainfall with the the majority of the forecast area remaining dry.

Behind this front on Thursday, noticeably colder, drier air will advect into the region. Dew points through the day will gradually fall into the mid to lower 40s F, with some upper 30s F possible as well. Meanwhile, highs will range from the middle 60s F north to middle 70s F south. With afternoon relative humidity values generally ranging between 35-45%, northwest winds sustained around 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph, and with the extremely dry soil conditions and vegetation across the area, a "limited" threat for fire danger will exist across the entire CWA.

Colder, dry weather will persist into the upcoming weekend and the beginning of next week. High temperatures Friday through Monday will be noticeably cooler, middle 50s F to middle 60s F. Overnight lows will see multiple opportunities to fall below zero particularly in northeastern and east-central Mississippi where lows Friday night and Saturday night likely drop into the upper 20s F. Lows elsewhere will generally be in the 30s F. A forecast graphic highlighting the areas most likely to be impacted by these freezing and sub-freezing temperatures will be delineated by a concurrent "Limited" HWO product.

Model guidance consensus grows concerning the potential for a wave of low pressure to develop along the northern Gulf coast into early next week. Rain chances have substantially trended up and it currently appears that most areas could see some much needed rainfall Sunday night into Monday. Overnight lows will likely be predicated on exactly how that disturbance evolves with the currently forecast lows near freezing in the Golden Triangle area likely warmer should some of the faster/wetter guidance prove more correct. The key takeaway here is that despite the near freezing forecast temperatures coupled with 20-40% rainfall chances late Sunday night into early Monday morning, it's more likely that one of these regimes proves more accurate and winter weather is not expected with this activity. Either it will be warmer and wetter or remain dry and chilly. We'll have a better idea of which of these two regimes we'll get as we get closer. /86/19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR conditions with a light wind will prevail at all TAF sites throughout the forecast period./KP/86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 79 51 70 39 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 78 50 71 35 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 79 50 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 78 54 74 39 / 60 0 0 0 Natchez 79 53 73 43 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 78 51 67 39 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 76 47 65 35 / 10 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.