textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area late this afternoon into tonight. Rain may disrupt outdoor plans this evening in some areas.

- The chance for showers and thunderstorms is increasing Tuesday into Wednesday. We are monitoring potential for some storms to be strong to severe.

- Heavy rainfall is possible during both systems. We will have to monitor for isolated flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Several rounds of rain and storms are expected as the pattern becomes more active over the next week. After a long dry period, our first chance of rain in weeks later tomorrow into the overnight period. Generally no hazards are expected with this activity, but cannot rule out a low chance for localized flash flooding with anomalous deep moisture and convergence concentrated east of I-55 and south of I-20. Overall most folks should see an inch or less of rainfall, but pockets of 2 inches or more in a short period cannot be ruled out. The duration of any heavy rainfall is likely to be short. Given such dry antecedent conditions, any rain would be very beneficial.

Shortwave ridging will keep things dry Monday in advance of a cold front. Subtropical jet will aid in lee cyclogenesis off the Rockies Monday. The corresponding surface low will rapidly deepen, drawing moisture northward with storm development along its cold front. The front should push through our area mainly overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning and progressively weaken as the low lift northward. Both on WXnext2 and stormnet, show low severe probabilities to our west and into far western portions of our area. Stormnet lightning probabilities diminish as the system moves east, suggesting weakening by early Wednesday morning. That said, potential secondary low development could reinvigorate activity in the southeast Wednesday. As far as severe potential goes, chances overall look low. Linear storm mode and high shear low cape type environment suggest a primary wind/tornado risk, which would likely be isolated with greatest chances west of I-55 and the river. We may also have to watch for a heavy rainfall threat with anomalous PWAT concentrated along the boundary. Some guidance is showing bullseyes in the west of 2 or more inches in a short period. More details will come in future forecast updates.

Due to the secondary low development, moisture wrap around lingers, so low (15-20%) rain chances continue into Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts to generally under a tenth of an inch. The jet remains active and persistent moist trajectories may keep isolated rain chances around to end the week. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR prevails today ahead of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening and into the overnight hours. Temporary low visibility is possible in heavier rain showers. Very low stratus develops shortly after midnight tonight and may also accompany 4-5SM visibility. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 63 76 60 / 30 70 60 10 Meridian 79 59 71 56 / 40 80 60 20 Vicksburg 80 62 79 61 / 20 50 50 10 Hattiesburg 84 63 76 59 / 60 70 60 20 Natchez 82 64 80 63 / 30 50 50 0 Greenville 77 62 76 60 / 20 70 70 0 Greenwood 79 59 73 58 / 20 80 80 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.