textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Storm Dolly has formed in the Central Atlantic and no impacts are expected to Gulf Coast over the next week.

- Rain chances decrease into the weekend, with rain and storms mostly confined to Pine Belt and Interstate 59 corridor.

- Dangerous heat stress may return across the forecast area early to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Today through late next week (Thursday)...

Through this weekend: Synoptic pattern this morning consists of northwest flow and a series of shortwaves, one to the south and another progged to sink in from the north. Stationary front to the north will sink southward through the day, with much drier air advecting in from the north (precipitable water falling to 1.1 to 1.5 inches). This will keep most areas northwest of the Natchez Trace dry into the afternoon. Some convergence may spark some showers and isolated storms in the Interstate 59 corridor. HIghs will be seasonably warm in the low to mid 90s. Heat stress will be mostly confined to south of Interstate 20 but dangerous heat looks mostly unlikely.

As the upper trough lifts northeast and frontal zone shifts out of the area into the weekend, a cutoff upper low over the southeast will shift westward into the weekend. Rain and storm chances will continue to shift southeast into the Pine Belt this weekend, with the Interstate 59 corridor the highest coverage (25 to 45 percent Saturday and Sunday). Mean ridge (595DM) will build over the Red River Valley area in the Southern Plains, with ridging encroaching in our area from the west. This will help high temps moderate back in the low to mid 90s (92F to 97F, with warmest conditions in the northwest Delta region). Heat stress will remain a low chance into the late weekend, with Sunday having some low probabilities.

Next week: Synoptic pattern will consist of mean ridge building out of the Red River Valley into the Mid MS River Valley, with an upper low sliding underneath the ridge into the Gulf Coast states. This will drive some deeper moisture, moist convergence and rain and storm chances in southeast of the Natchez Trace through mid to late next week (highest chances in the 25 to 40 percent range). Heat returns as highs moderate more into the mid to upper 90s. With increasingly moist thermal profiles and higher PBL moisture, dewpoints holding in the 72F to 78F range. This will lead to potential dangerous heat from early through late next week (Tuesday through Thursday) as heat indices peak near or in excess of 105F. HWO graphics are likely (potential the lowest a "Limited" risk area and highest an "Elevated") but timing is still several days away and will continue to hold off another forecast cycle. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

VFR flight categories are ongoing and expected for the most part through the next 24 hours. Light northeasterly winds are expected during this time. Sporadic patchy ground fog (MVFR visibility at times) is ongoing at some sites, especially in east to southeast. GTR or MEI has the highest chance to have sub-MVFR restrictions through the next hour or so. A few showers or storms this afternoon cannot be ruled out in southeast TAF sites (MEI, HBG and PIB) but confidence is too low to introduce during the 06Z TAF cycle. These will wind down quickly just after sunset. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 70 93 70 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 93 70 93 71 / 20 0 10 10 Vicksburg 92 68 93 69 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 70 94 71 / 20 10 30 10 Natchez 93 69 94 70 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 92 68 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 94 68 95 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.