textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible over the western half of the area this evening.

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Through tonight: Another warm and humid day is on tap for the CWA but by this evening severe storms will be possible over our western zones and spread east into central Mississippi before weakening. As compared to yesterday, the "Marginal Risk" for severe storms has been expended eastward.

Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough over the northern Plains and extending up into Canada. This shortwave trough will swing east through the period and its accompanying surface low will drag a cold front toward our CWA. As our winds aloft will remain southwesterly, the cold front will lose its upper level support and stall across the northwest portions of our CWA later tonight. Latest surface analysis still had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This ridge will help maintain our moist airmass with PWATs around an inch and three quarters along with dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Daytime heating of our moist airmass will lead to a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but these storms should remain subsevere. More intense convection is expected to our west along and just ahead of the approaching cold front. These storms will be capable of damaging wind gusts and hail as they move into our extreme western zones by early evening. The severe potential will become less the further into our CWA they progress and current thinking is that the severe potential will end close to midnight over central Mississippi before spreading into east Mississippi. Rainfall with this system is expected to be beneficial with the greatest amounts along and northwest of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures today are forecast in the lower 90s again but record highs are in the mid 90s. /22/

Wednesday through Monday:

A frontal boundary will continue to progress towards the southeast before stalling north of the CWA. Ongoing showers and storm chances are expected through the extended period. Highs (ranging in the 80s) will remain near seasonal averages and lows (upper 60s/near 70 degrees) will run +10 degrees above seasonal averages over the extended as well.

As the boundary stalls, multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse the region, providing addition moisture and widespread rainfall chances Wednesday, lasting through the weekend. Increasing rain chances will begin Thursday, reaching 95% on Friday and up to 90% Saturday and Sunday. Organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be as favorable, however, an isolated severe storm or two may be possible each day. Estimate rainfall amounts may range from 1.0-3.5 inches over the course of this week and the weekend. Received rainfall will help alleviate the ongoing drought over the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs wl continue across the south and cntrl TAF sites through 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide until SHRA/TSRA move into the nw during the evening and spread over the cntrl TAF sites by 06Z and result in lower flight restrictions. MVFR/IFR cigs wl be psbl in the south again by 09Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 89 71 86 69 / 30 60 70 50 Meridian 90 70 88 68 / 10 20 30 30 Vicksburg 90 71 85 69 / 30 70 70 70 Hattiesburg 89 70 89 68 / 10 10 40 20 Natchez 90 72 86 70 / 40 60 60 60 Greenville 91 71 84 68 / 40 80 80 70 Greenwood 91 71 85 69 / 30 70 80 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.