textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress is expected across at western portions of the forecast area again today and over the southwest Sunday.

- Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts are possible late this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 449 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Through Saturday: Although a weak frontal boundary will continue sagging through the CWA today, heat stress will remain the main concern in the short term over the western half of the CWA. In addition, there will also be the potential for isolated strong to severe storms late this afternoon and evening across the north. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed our CWA on the eastern periphery of a large mid level high and just west of the base of a mid level trough that will continue to provide northwest flow aloft through tonight. The drier air in the wake of the weak cold front should limit daytime convection until late this afternoon and to the north. A disturbance within the northwest flow aloft will combine with daytime heating upstream and develop convection that will spread south into our northern zones by this evening. The convection will have the potential for isolated strong to severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts. Otherwise, temperatures will again top out in the upper 90s to lower 100s and combine with relatively high humidity to result in heat indices between 105-110F in the west where a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. The convection will taper off by midnight but the warm and humid conditions will continue through tonight. /22/

Sunday through next Saturday...

A weak frontal boundary from the Mid Tennessee Valley Region will continue to gradually push southwards towards north MS early Sunday morning. As this boundary layer continues to slowly push southwards, the slight uptick of moisture and northwest flow will help focus scattered diurnally driven early morning showers and storms, mainly for areas across portions of north MS, portions of northwest MS, portions of southeast AR, and portions of northeast LA with local PoPs around 20-30%. A few strong storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out. Rain chances will start to fizzle out by Sunday afternoon leading to quiet conditions across our CWA through Sunday evening.

Regarding the dangerous heat for Sunday, guidance continues to show a NW-SE oriented thermal gradient across the southeast CONUS. This thermal gradient will allow for afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s across our entire forecast area. This combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will allow for heat index reading values to peak in the 105-110 degree range with the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area. With that in mind, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed for Sunday. If a heat advisory is introduced for Sunday, original thinking is to include all of our northeast LA parishes, portions of south MS and southwest MS, portions of west MS and portions of central MS.

Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area heading into the new work week. Aside from the gradual upticks in rain chances, there are still no strong signals for significant rainfall. All global model ensembles continue to point to dry anomalies. Heat index readings will gradually climb back into the 105-110 degree range across much of the area as we get closer to the mid week. Additional heat headlines/advisories will likely be needed as we get closer to the mid week. Given the continued vegetative stress, the forecast area will become more vulnerable to fire danger should wind/RH thresholds be met. As of now the weather pattern isn't supporting this, but all fire related interests should monitor closely. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

MVFR vsbys wl continue at GWO and GTR until 13Z before improving. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail until after 22Z when another round of TSRA wl start affecting the nw TAF sites and then move in vcty of the cntrl TAF sites by 05Z before dissipating. VFR conditions wl then resume areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 100 74 98 74 / 0 20 10 30 Meridian 99 73 98 73 / 0 10 10 10 Vicksburg 100 74 98 74 / 0 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 98 74 99 74 / 0 0 10 10 Natchez 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 101 74 97 74 / 20 40 10 40 Greenwood 99 72 96 72 / 10 40 10 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034>036-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064- 072.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.