textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues into the weekend.

- A pattern favorable for flash flooding develops early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Through tonight: The ridging surface and aloft that has been over our region the last several days will try to hang tough while a weak cold front drops into the CWA and stalls. This cold front will bring the chance for rain across our northern zones today that may spread south as far as the I-20 corridor this evening before the convection dissipates.

Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around the 590dam high to our south and several shortwave troughs rounding the base of a broad upper level trough to our north. These shortwaves were supporting a cold front and a band of convection along and just ahead of the cold front. This convection extended from western Arkansas and northwest Tennessee. There are several cams that bring this convection into our northern zones this morning but latest consensus has the convection weakening and arriving in our CWA much slower. Although no severe storms are expected with the convection, an early arrival may but dents in our heat stress concerns. Current thinking is that deep moisture will increase today ahead of the approaching cold front as our temperatures climb up into the 90s. The combination of high temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat index values around most of our CWA with the highest peak heat index values along the Mississippi river and our southern zones where a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. If the rain in the north comes in earlier, increasing cloud cover and limiting insolation, heat indices will be considerably cooler than anticipated. The cold front is expected to stall across our northern zones this evening and drift just north of our CWA by sunrise Saturday morning. Despite the presence of the stalled boundary, the convection is expected to see a distinct diurnal trend and mostly dissipate well before midnight. /22/

Through next Wednesday...High levels of heat and humidity will remain the story heading into this upcoming weekend. With highs climbing into the 90s through Sunday and dew points well into the 70s, afternoon heat index readings will be between 100-110F each day. This dangerous heat stress has resulted in a "Heat Advisory" being hoisted for a portion of the CWA today and Saturday. This advisory could be extended into Sunday, with some changes in the layout of the affected counties/parishes possible.

Although the heat tapers off during the start of the new work week, moisture will be aplenty across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values hovering around 2.5 inches. This, as a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section resulting in a front dropping south into the forecast area and stalling, will set the stage for multiple bouts of heavy rain moving across the region.

Currently a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area next Monday through Wednesday as both high rainfall rates and training of convection could result in flash flooding. While this is still several days out, please continue to monitor the latest forecast as categorical adjustments to the threat area will likely be made, with a possible "Flash Flood Watch" needed for portions of, if not all of, the forecast area during that timeframe. /19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail until 11Z. By 11Z MVFR/IFR conditions wl be psbl in the south until after 13Z. After 13Z VFR conditions wl resume until the aftn when isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA wl be psbl at the northern TAF sites. The SHRA/TSRA wl end by 00Z Sat and VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 94 77 95 77 / 10 0 10 10 Meridian 95 76 95 76 / 10 10 20 10 Vicksburg 93 77 94 77 / 10 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 94 76 95 76 / 10 0 10 0 Natchez 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 91 76 94 78 / 30 10 10 20 Greenwood 92 76 95 77 / 30 20 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for MSZ018-019-025-034-035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for LAZ009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Saturday for ARZ075.