textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and dry weather is likely early this week.

- Patchy frost and lows near freezing possible this morning across north-central and northeast Mississippi. - After seasonable warmup this week, another round of cooler temperatures and increasing potential for frost/freeze late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

Through next weekend (Sunday)...

Today: GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate southwest US upper low centered in west TX along the International Border and Rio Grande Valley. This continues to keep broad isentropic ascent and cirrus deck draped across the ArkLaTex to Gulf Coast states. Temperatures are currently in the mid to upper 40s along and south of Interstate 20 while falling into the upper 30s to the north. Surface high is centered over the ArkLaTex into the Gulf Coast region, which will help gradient winds to decouple and become light to calm overnight. Seasonably cool lows remain on tap this morning (35F to 45F this morning). The dry soil conditions continue to support overachieving of the nocturnal cooling processes. This favors efficient radiational cooling, but high clouds could complicate outgoing longwave radiation and effective cooling. Patchy frost was observed this morning and additional pockets of frost are possible this morning. Kept HWO as is, even if high clouds may constrict the frost potential a little further northeast into the Highway 82 and Highway 45 corridors more towards the Golden Triangle in northeast MS. Protect plants (covered or brought indoors) from the frost and pets and people from the cold temperatures.

This week into next weekend: Quiet and dry pattern, with clouds and the occasional rain shower will be the norm through midweek. As the upper low ejects northeast tomorrow, will open up into a weaker shortwave. There remains enough isentropic ascent for broad cloudiness through mid to late week (Wednesday to Thursday).Temperatures moderate into the mid 70s to near 80 degrees by midweek. Dry thermo profiles will climb as ascent and moist advection increase. Precipitable water (PWs) climb around half inch to around 1.1 to 1.3 inches around mid-week (Wednesday to Thursday). This will lead to some isolated rain showers. In addition, a stronger shortwave will dive southeast of the Plains into the Midwest, with a surface low and moving into the OH Valley. This will drive a front southeast. All of this being said, this could lead to some low chance (15 to 30 percent)/isolated rain coverage north of Interstate 20 into the Highway 82 corridor. Unfortunately, minimal rain totals, less than a tenth of an inch, will make no dent in ongoing drought concerns and only continue to worsen again.

The synoptic pattern will become deeply amplified as another strong spoke of energy on the western periphery of the mean trough. This will drive reinforcing strong high pressure, around 1025-1030mb, out of central Canada southward across the Great Lakes to MS Valley into the Gulf Coast. Friday and likely again on Saturday, additional spokes of northern stream vorticity/shortwaves rotate our way down the westward side of the long wave trough which further deepens the upper troughing and reinforces the suppressed, cool and dry weather. In fact, the pattern becomes so amplified that at 500 mb, guidance generally agrees it will be colder over portions of our area than in portions of far northern Canada with heights at that level sinking to 35 dam below climatological average. Surface high will weaken slightly but this looks to be the most efficient cold and another round of likely frost and light freeze next weekend. Just prior, clear days and full sun strong combined with stout pressure gradient will favor deep mixing and potential increased wildfire danger around Friday. Blended guidance probs of light freeze are ow to medium chance (15 to 50 percent) and medium to high chance (60 to 80 percentage) north of Interstate 20, with low chance probs of falling below 28F (10 to 30 percent). The growing season concerns will persist. The exact depth and orientation of the cold airmass introduces uncertainty--our area will be on the western edge of the coldest airmass meaning small shifts east or west could mean multiple degrees of difference in temperature. For that reason, will continue to monitor trends without formally issuing HWO products at this time.

The trend in temperatures for the week will the seasonable warmth through mid week (Wednesday to Thursday) to seasonably cool, highs some 8 to 12F below (55F to 64F on Friday to Saturday) and lows some 12F to 15F below (28F to 34F Friday night and 30F to 38F Saturday night). Some patchy frost and light freeze is possible Thursday night as well. /DC/86/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Mon Nov 9 2026

High clouds will gradually increase across the area through the afternoon. Still, VFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds this afternoon will generally be light from the northeast between 3-5 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 49 78 52 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 74 45 78 47 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 72 48 77 52 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 76 46 80 50 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 73 51 78 54 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 70 48 75 53 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 71 45 74 50 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.