textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth and increasing rain chances can be expected this week.

- A greater chance for showers and storms could materialize this weekend, but the forecast for significant rainfall is uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tonight through Sunday...This forecast period will be characterized by above normal warmth, along with, and surprisingly, actual chances for showers and storms. This is something we haven't had in the forecast for a while. Overall, strong high pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east during much of this time, while high pressure aloft gradually becomes more positioned to the east of the region. The resulting increased warmth and moisture across the region will lead to mainly diurnally driven showers and storms developing each afternoon through at least mid-week. Something to note, particularly Tuesday afternoon, is that there's currently advertised close to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE across southern portions of the area. While flow from the south is weak, convection that develops across this area could become intense enough to produce some gusty winds, along with some heavy rainfall rates with slow moving convection.

The better, more widespread, rain chances across the forecast area currently look to come Thursday night into Friday, and again Saturday night into Easter Sunday. While neither of these days look to be complete washouts at the moment, better chances for showers and storms exist at these times due to it being more driven by shortwaves trying to move through the region. At present, the system Thursday night will struggle to make headway through the forecast area as high pressure holds firmly in place. However over the weekend, models are currently in agreement that a stronger shortwave will drag a cold front into and through the CWA. If that scenario verifies, not only will it result in rain chances over the entire area, it'll also bring an airmass change to the region in its wake. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Scattered to broken cumulus deck is producing mostly VFR ceilings to start the TAF period. Ceilings may briefly drop into MVFR range, but prevail at VFR. Low stratus will spread north from the Gulf Coast after 00Z, lowering ceilings to MVFR and IFR at most sites before 12Z Tuesday. There is a chance for SHRA and TSRA at times as well, but confidence on a period of impacts at any particular site was too low to mention at this time. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 65 83 64 84 / 0 50 10 40 Meridian 60 83 63 84 / 10 50 10 60 Vicksburg 65 85 64 87 / 0 40 0 20 Hattiesburg 64 83 65 83 / 0 70 10 70 Natchez 65 84 65 86 / 0 60 0 40 Greenville 65 84 64 86 / 0 20 10 10 Greenwood 65 84 66 87 / 0 30 10 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.