textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Much needed rain should fall across the entire area. - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather resumes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Through Tonight: Warmer and drier through the period. Although most of the diurnally driven convection ended last evening, local radars were still showing an area of sprinkles over east Mississippi. This activity was associated with a weak shortwave trough axis that will shift east of Mississippi by sunrise. In the wake of the shortwave trough, drier mid layer air was over our western zones and spreading east per latest satellite imagery. Although surface ridging from the east will continue across our CWA through tonight, supporting low level moisture today will be mostly dry with the chance for afternoon convection being confined to our western zones. With a little more insolation today than on Thursday, temperatures will top out a couple degrees warmer this afternoon. Warmer than normal temperatures will continue tonight as well. /22/

Saturday: A marginal risk for severe weather including wind gusts to 60 mph and hail up to quarter size has been maintained per SPC, and it appears the "peak" storm intensity should be along/nw of the Natchez Trace Corridor roughly in the late afternoon to evening time frame where west to east wind surges may have greater potential for occurrence relative to other areas. The marginal area has been refined in this morning's update to area of greatest confidence. From there the overall threat should diminish as it progresses southeast. Weak lapse rates, weak deep layer shear, and weak forcing all limit potential for greater, more widespread severe, but just enough of these ingredients will combine to maintain this marginal severe threat. Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 will also support a more diurnally driven mode ahead of the aforementioned front. Like days previously, ingredients could be sufficient to support a brief sub severe or low end severe storm.

Additionally, deep layer moisture could be sufficient to support isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

Sunday through mid week: In the wake, sometime later Sunday, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week, until the later half of the week when weak moisture recovery should bring slight rain chances back into the forecast, mainly in the southwest. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs wl prevail until after 15Z. A gusty south wind 17-20kt wl develop and continue this aftn until diminishing after 22Z. Isold SHRA/TSRA may come in vcty of GLH and HEZ this aftn but no convection is expected elsewhere. MVFR cigs are expected to develop over the southern and cntrl TAF sites after 08Z Sat. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 86 65 82 55 / 10 0 80 90 Meridian 86 63 85 57 / 10 0 70 90 Vicksburg 86 65 82 54 / 20 10 90 90 Hattiesburg 86 66 84 63 / 0 0 70 80 Natchez 86 66 83 55 / 30 10 90 90 Greenville 86 67 79 51 / 20 20 90 70 Greenwood 88 66 82 52 / 10 10 90 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.