textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions will continue for the remainder of the week and into the weekend.

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing rain chances early to mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Through mid next week:

The predominant feature will be the prevailing subtropical ridge. Through the remainder of this week, northerly trajectories will maintain dry conditions. The ridge shifts east while troughing digs out west, resulting in a shift to southerly trajectories. Moisture recovers as a result, with PWAT around 1.5 early Monday supportive of convection. The lack of meaningful features suggests convection should largely be diurnally driven. A cold front will attempt to make headway into the region, but likely stalls north. The lack of airmass change should support continued daily rain and storm chances next week. Towards the back half of the week, the boundary attempts to make headway again as another surface low pushes across the great lakes, however this seems unlikely. Some guidance suggests it pushes into northern parts of the area, but climatologically speaking, this should be taken with some skepticism. Organized storms appear unlikely, but mesoscale features may modify the environment any given day, and with increased heat and humidity anticipated, may have to monitor for the potential of microburst conditions. /SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions and winds less than 10 kts expected to prevail through the period at all sites. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 59 86 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 53 84 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 62 88 68 86 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 56 86 60 85 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 88 66 86 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 62 90 70 87 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 59 87 69 86 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.