textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through Thursday due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

- Showers and thunderstorms are possible across the forecast area this weekend. While heavy rainfall is possible, it is not a certainty for all areas.

- There is an additional chance for thunderstorms during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Dry conditions with seasonably warm days will persist into Friday as surface ridging holds across much of the eastern CONUS. Increasing drought conditions and RHs dipping into the 20-30 percent range will result in elevated concerns for grass fire type activity into Thursday, but continued generally light wind will mitigate a more serious situation with unpredictable fire spread. Daytime RHs will trend upward Friday into Saturday, beginning to limit meteorological contributions to fire danger.

Heading into the weekend, rain chances will begin to increase across the area in advance of an upper shortwave shifting into the Mid MS Valley. Scattered showers will be possible as early as Friday night, with any heavier rain or thunderstorms likely to hold off until Saturday into Sunday. At this point, run to run consistency in recent forecast guidance with the strength of the upper wave, and consequently rainfall amounts/coverage, is poor. While chances for measurable rain have increased in the official forecast, and it is possible a few inches of beneficial rain will fall in some portion of our area this weekend, the higher amounts may be more localized in nature from convection. On the opposite side of the coin, some areas may see very little rain through this time frame, with drought busting rain not at all a guarantee at this stage. Still, anyone with outdoor plans over the holiday weekend should monitor later forecasts closely and have contingencies in mind for rain and possible storms.

Following the weekend system, shortwave ridging will quickly shift across the region, followed by what currently looks to be a more organized upper trough bringing another storm system into the area around the middle of next week, arriving in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. If this system pans out as currently depicted, stronger deep shear may provide some potential for strong storms. However, at this forecast range and given recent model inconsistencies, it is too soon to much confidence in any further details. /DL/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 82 49 83 54 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 79 44 81 50 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 50 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 83 45 84 52 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 84 52 85 56 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 83 51 84 53 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 83 48 84 50 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.