textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The rain across the area will taper off from the northwest after midnight in the wake of a cold front moving through the region.

- Dry weather will resume Sunday and continue for the most part through next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Mid evening surface analysis had the cold front nearly along the Natchez Trace. This cold front has knocked temperatures down into the 50s and morning lows will be significantly cooler, in the 40s at most locations. Local radars showed plenty of anafrontal precipitation which will gradually taper off from the northwest tonight but, not end in our southeast until after sunrise. Overall, the potential for thunder has diminished and total rainfall amounts will be lighter than expected. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Through next week: A brief weakness in the subtropical ridge that has been dominating our weather will allow a cold front to sink into our area this afternoon and evening and will bring a round of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Weak low level flow and upper forcing will limit severe potential. There may be just enough lapse rate/instability to support a subsevere wind gust. 12z JAN sounding indicates a layer of remnant dry air in place just above 850, indicative of less than ideal moist trajectories. So, while there will be rain (yay!), there won't be much, as expected totals are around a quarter to half inch. It is possible that there could be localized higher amounts depending on convective rates, likely northwest, but don't get your hopes up. As the front continues to progress southeast, rain and storms look to become anafrontal. This should lead to diminishing storms overnight and increased stratiform rain. Light rain showers could continue into Sunday morning, especially in the southeast.

Clouds will clear behind the front as very dry air ushers in. This will also be accompanied by around 10 mph winds. It is too soon to tell how the rainfall will moderate RH, but fire threat will have to be monitored for early next week. Sunday, despite the wind and dry air, shouldn't be a concern considering the rainfall.

Dry conditions will continue into next week as ridging becomes reestablished. It will reinforce the dry air by redirecting moist trajectories westward and deflect energy away from the area. Things look to change later in the week as an upper low ejects from the west and becomes phased with the polar jet. The subtropical jet noses in creating a split flow regime. This leads to broad upper difluence over the region and should promote increased rain chances later next week. This is certainly good news as this looks to continue even beyond the period. While flow is perturbed, it is too soon to tell how the subtropical high will influence any potential severe chances. /SAS/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

Numerous -SHRAs wl continue tonight as a cold front moves through the region. MVFR cigs and a gusty nw wind of 20-25kts will accompany the cold front. The -SHRA wl end and cigs wl improve from the nw after midnight. VFR conditions are expected areawide once the se improves by 09Z. A gusty ne wind 18-22kts wl redevelop by 15Z and continue through the aftn before subsiding by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 49 72 45 78 / 80 0 0 0 Meridian 47 71 44 78 / 80 0 0 0 Vicksburg 48 72 45 78 / 70 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 51 72 45 80 / 70 20 0 0 Natchez 50 72 46 78 / 70 0 0 0 Greenville 48 71 48 77 / 50 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 72 46 79 / 60 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.