textproduct: Jackson

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight risk for severe thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning for parts of the area. - Post frontal boundary: fall-like temperatures and dry air. Rain chances return Monday evening into Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1256 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

Tonight through Saturday Night:

Ridging pattern over the MS River Valley keep persistent clear and dry conditions through Friday. As the ridge migrates eastward, winds gradually shift from N/NE to S/SW, increasing moisture across the area ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

As the ridge shifts, a mid-lvl trough will push a cold front towards the ArkLaMiss region Saturday; bringing shower/storm chances (along with severe weather potential) to parts of the region. Best area of instability and thermodynamic parameters will be confined northwest of the CWA; however, near the MS Delta could see a "Slight" risk (2 out of 5 ) with damaging winds up to 60s and quarter to golfball size hail possible. From NE LA to parts of southern MS, a "Marginal" (1 out of 5) risk with damaging wind gusts and hail up to quarter size. At this time, the estimate for storm timing is looking to be Saturday night/overnight into Sunday morning. As the system evolves,continue to check back for refinement on severe weather potential and timing.

Sunday afternoon/evening through next Wednesday:

Cold front is expected to push through the area on Sunday, bringing drier air and keeping average to slightly above-average (5-10 degrees above climatology) temperatures in the forecast. Showers are expected to return Monday night (15-20% rain chances) into Tuesday (20-30% chances) as a shortwave disturbance passes over the region. Afternoon highs are expected to be in the lower/mid 70s, reaching near 80 degrees, with lows in the mid 40s to low 50s by the end of the extended period. /SW/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Thu Oct 16 2025

VFR conditions and a light wind will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 89 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 60 89 63 88 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 62 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 62 90 65 88 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 63 89 64 88 / 0 0 0 20 Greenville 62 90 65 89 / 0 0 0 20 Greenwood 63 91 65 90 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.

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