textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight to marginal risk for severe weather on Saturday with wind and hail being the primary threats.

- The most widespread and significant rainfall event since January is expected for the entire area.

- There is potential for storms during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The southeast ridge will be the predominant feature that will influence our weather over the next week with continued southerly flow supporting above normal temperatures and moist conditions. This will precondition the thermal environment ahead of a trailing cold front progged to push through Saturday. Activity initiates along this boundary in the vicinity of central Arkansas and grows upscale as it pushes south into the moist unstable air over our area. Given the weak forcing, this is more similar to a warm season set up, rather than what is typical of early spring. So, the line should be primarily forced by the cold pool. Now that we are solidly in the CAM window however, there is increasing confidence for a prefrontal discrete mode amid a favorable hail environment. The deep shear is on the weaker side, but steep midlevel lapse rates and strong -10C - -30C CAPE raise concerns for greater hail threat. Shear only needs to be sufficient in this thermal environment, which likely looks to be the case. Considering this, have opted to increase emphasis on messaging hail threat. High cloud bases and weak low level shear look to limit tornado threat. However, if a low level shear vector lines up just right with sufficient low level moisture, as can sometimes happen in our area, wouldn't rule out a tornado either, particular in any supercells that can become established. Considering the limitations of the low level environment, would expect a primarily wind/hail threat. A slight/marginal risk is being maintained and has been expanded to capture the prefrontal discrete mode.

Now that we are more firmly in the near term CAM window with more guidance agreement, there is some concern for a localized heavy rainfall threat to materialize, especially where stronger low level moist transport vectors intersect the convective boundary over northwest portions of the area Saturday. It seems to be this area where cell motion/propagation vectors will potentially have the most balance for a slower convective system speed, resulting in a few hours of heavy rainfall rates. Even with the recent dry weather, these rates may be sufficient for at least minor low-land flooding. This of course assumes that a convective system is maintained, which as of now looks very likely. Later in the day, the cold pool will likely overwhelm the system motion as the weak shortwave trough shears eastward leaving behind diminished lift. With all of this in mind, will continue to message limited flood risk in our northwest to align with WPC messaging and recent HREF guidance.

Not much airmass change is expected in the wake of the front as a cut off upper low over Baja reinforces ridging over our area once again early next week. Southerly flow, and therefore moisture, is maintained. The aforementioned upper low becomes the focus of our next weather maker around middle of next week. As of this morning, guidance has shown a less phased, more southern solution for this feature, and thus a more suppressed convective environment. This introduces uncertainty regarding the magnitude of severe weather. Despite SPC's introduction of a slight risk for this time frame, will refrain from introducing a local graphic at this time. Expect future updates regarding this potential event. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This morning's low stratus deck continues to steadily erode, with a mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings across the region. All sites are expected to return to VFR within the next hour or two, but a resurgence of MVFR, to locally IFR, stratus decks is anticipated late tonight through most of the morning Saturday. Southerly winds will be gusty at times during the daytime hours today and again on Saturday. Isolated to scattered SHRA and TS are possible through tonight. More widespread TS activity is expected beginning Saturday afternoon and spreading southeastward across the area in Saturday night. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 82 63 74 / 10 90 80 80 Meridian 64 82 61 74 / 10 70 80 90 Vicksburg 67 83 63 74 / 20 90 80 80 Hattiesburg 68 84 66 78 / 10 60 70 90 Natchez 68 83 64 76 / 20 90 80 80 Greenville 67 75 59 68 / 40 100 80 50 Greenwood 67 78 61 72 / 30 90 90 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.