textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet weather and cool temperatures will continue through Saturday.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible at times across portions of southern and southeastern Mississippi through Saturday.

- The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 736 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Rest of tonight...

Wet, rainy and dreary forecast is on tap for the overnight period. RAP and GOES East water vapor analysis indicate trough axis spinning over the Baja Peninsula, with broad southwesterly flow/ascent across the region. This is keeping a surface low in northern Gulf, frontogenesis and deep moisture (precipitable water around 1.2 to 1.6 inches). As positive vorticity advection drives the disturbance across the Plains into the Mid MS Valley into Friday morning, drier air will slowly sink southeast into the overnight hours, with PWs falling less than three quarters of an inch northwest of the Natchez Trace while near an inch to an inch and a half to the southeast. Rain coverage will move southeast of the Natchez Trace by midnight and mostly out of the area, temporarily, around daybreak Friday. Due to very light drizzle possible overnight in the wake, some fog can't be ruled out, but likely not dense and sparse in coverage. Lows will be seasonably cool northwest (31F to 36F), while seasonable southeast (37F to 45F). Forecast updates are out earlier. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

A jet stream oriented from West Texas to New England will keep broad synoptic scale lift in place over the Gulf Coast and Deep South regions through the end of this week. The pattern will favor steady rainfall in rounds as upper-level disturbances moving through the flow aloft enhance mid-level frontogenesis. PWAT values over the Northern Gulf are around 1.5+ inches, in this range are above the 90th percentile for our forecast area, so moisture transport will remain efficient and some heavy rain is still possible. The plume is mostly south of our area but extends across far southeast Mississippi. The first round of rain brought about 0.10 inches of rain to areas north of Interstate 20, and about 0.50 to 2.0 inches to areas south of the Interstate. Expectation is that between that first round, the incoming next round this afternoon, and additional rain through the daytime Saturday, average rainfall amounts will be about 1 to 2.5 inches for areas south of Interstate 20, and about 1/4 inch to 1 inch for areas to the north. A reasonable upper range for rainfall for areas along and south of the US Highway 84 corridor in southern Mississippi would be localized amounts up to around 4 inches.

This pattern into the weekend will keep temps fairly stable between mostly 40s and 50s. Then Sunday into next week, the pattern will shift. The upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward, and drier northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the country. A reinforcing cold front and surface high pressure will push through the eastern CONUS through the early week. Monday night appears to be our coolest of the next 7 days, with the potential for temperatures to drop below freezing (down to the mid 20s or so) with that air mass. And then a cold front moving south into the region Wednesday night could bring another chance for some rain at the tail end of the current forecast period. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 736 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

SHRA and RA ongoing will gradually dwindle into the overnight hours, with periods lowered ceilings/stratus and brief reductions in vsby/BR (MVFR/IFR). There could be some reductions to LIFR ceilings/stratus overnight, with slow lifting to MVFR at GLH and GWO around 05/17-18Z Friday while even later at other TAF sites between 05/19-22Z Friday. Winds will remain generally light and northerly. Some additional rain will lift north with the onset at HEZ, HBG, PIB and MEI between 05/19-22Z Friday through the end of the 00Z TAF cycle. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 39 50 41 57 / 70 20 40 30 Meridian 39 51 39 54 / 90 30 40 40 Vicksburg 37 49 40 57 / 50 20 30 30 Hattiesburg 44 55 45 58 / 80 50 70 70 Natchez 38 49 41 59 / 50 30 50 30 Greenville 33 45 38 52 / 30 0 20 10 Greenwood 35 47 37 54 / 60 0 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.