textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

By far, the most impactful weather in the forecast concerns the arctic air intruding upon the forecast area as we finish up the weekend and move into early next week. Overall messaging for this has not changed significantly since this morning, but with increased confidence and following coordination with neighbors, we have issued a cold weather advisory for Sunday night into early Monday.

For this evening: Scattered warm advection shower activity ahead of the arctic frontal boundary will consolidate and bring light moderate rainfall amounts over mainly the southern half of the forecast area. A few areas of fog may form again early tonight across southern portions of the area, but with the cold front moving in quickly, would expected this to be a shorter term event and not as impactful as what was experienced this morning.

For the overnight through Monday night: Arctic high pressure will build quickly southward over the area behind the cold front passage. A strong pressure gradient will lend to gusty north wind, and ultimately lead to wind chill readings approaching 10. Temperatures will begin falling significantly tonight to below freezing north of the I-20 corridor, and some readings will not climb much if any above freezing Sunday along/north of the Highway 82 corridor.

The surface anticyclone responsible for the cold is not the most intense we've ever seen, but it is making a fast track from the Arctic and not modifying much as it crosses extensive snowpack. Moreover, the trajectory of the highest pressures through the lower MS Valley is most ideal for cold advection. The bottom line here is that we'll "get our money's worth" from whatever this cold air mass can bring. Temperatures should bottom out around daybreak Monday in the teens to around 20, then begin a slow but steady climb Monday as the air modifies and cold advection shuts down. With the surface high sitting overhead Monday night, any warmth that accrues Monday should have no problem departing under clear skies and light wind, so look for lows to drop back well below freezing then.

Tuesday through Friday: A moderating trend in temperatures is expected with readings getting above normal later in the week. Rain chances will be on the increase with the developing warm advection pattern ahead of an approach cold front. Weather impacts overall do not look significant at this point, but may need to monitor for some thunderstorm potential ahead of the late week front. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Poor flying conditions will continue through the rest of the TAF period for central and northern TAF sites due to stratus cloud deck and light rain showers. SHRA chances will begin to increase areawide by 22Z Saturday leading to multiple sites seeing a combination of MVFR/IFR ceilings. Ceilings will be in MVFR/IFR conditions through 14Z Sunday. After 14Z, ceilings will improve to VFR. VFR ceilings will prevail across the area by 16Z Sunday. Gusty winds out of the north are expected by 05Z Sunday and will continue through Sunday afternoon with a tightened gradient laying through the area. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 35 42 21 46 / 60 0 0 0 Meridian 34 41 19 46 / 70 0 0 0 Vicksburg 31 39 21 44 / 60 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 44 52 22 49 / 80 20 0 0 Natchez 36 44 22 48 / 70 0 0 0 Greenville 26 32 19 39 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 26 36 18 43 / 40 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ074-075.