textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances are increasing for a mix of wintry precipitation to affect portions of our forecast area next weekend.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are also becoming more likely for next Friday night into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

The chance for impacts from winter weather next weekend for at least some portion of our forecast area continue to increase. It's too far out yet to have any certainty on precipitation types or impacts for any location, but the broad picture is coming into better focus. Longwave trough aloft will steer reinforcing cool air masses toward the Gulf Coast through the end of this week, with one shortwave disturbance midweek generating some lift and moistening for light to moderate rainfall.

But more impactful is that model guidance is in decent agreement that a strong Arctic air mass will drop out of Canada into the central CONUS Thursday night into Friday. The core of the surface high with 1045mb+ pressure values will settle into the Upper Midwest before weakening, but expansive arctic air mass will spread toward the south and linger through next weekend. This will result in a strong north-south temperature gradient. To our west, a closed low pressure system moving from the Pacific over the Desert Southwest will more likely determine what degree of winter weather impacts we experience here in our forecast area. If the system becomes embedded and phased with the northern jet stream, then better northward transport of moisture will result in a more expansive winter weather impact area through the Gulf South and Midsouth regions. That scenario is supported by the latest ECMWF deterministic run. Alternatively, as favored by a solution like the latest GFS deterministic run, the low may hang back farther west and precipitation would be oriented more west-east along the frontal boundary, aided by synoptic lift from the jet stream aloft.

Regardless of the exact setup, the likelihood of at least some wintry precipitation (freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow) is moved into the High (70-80%) Chance range based on the trends in the model ensemble guidance - especially north and west of the Natchez Trace corridor. Even in the Pine Belt of southeast Mississippi, there is a Low (20-30%) chance for at least some wintry precipitation to fall during the event. The reinforcing nature of the air mass with precipitation falling through it will likely keep a portion of the area near or below freezing from Friday night through Sunday night. In the northern Delta, Monday may even still hang onto temps in the 30s. With overnight low temperatures in the 10s and 20s Friday night through early in next week, Dangerous Cold is also a high risk. Temperatures below freezing for a few days will pose risk to in- ground and exposed above-ground water pipes. Precautions should be taken over the next few days to prepare for the extended cold weather. Expect refining of details to the forecast over the next few days. Caution should be advised for referencing online snowfall maps from weather models. Even if the liquid equivalent totals are reasonable, many of these outputs rely on "standard" snow-to liquid ratios of 10 to 1. Expected atmospheric parameters for this upcoming event currently limit snow-to-liquid ratios closer to 2 to 1 or 4 to 1, thus reducing possible snowfall amounts from the expected precipitation totals. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with northerly winds up to 10 kts and clear skies. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 27 55 36 57 / 0 0 0 50 Meridian 25 52 30 58 / 0 0 0 20 Vicksburg 27 56 38 57 / 0 0 0 70 Hattiesburg 30 58 36 65 / 0 0 0 20 Natchez 29 58 40 59 / 0 0 0 60 Greenville 25 50 35 50 / 0 0 10 80 Greenwood 24 51 34 53 / 0 0 0 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.