textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding remains likely across portions of the area this week, with flooding potential worsening into late week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1007 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Satellite imagery and regional radars showed deep convection along the western Gulf coast and extending across our southern zones. Our CWA remained south of a stalled frontal boundary and has a very moist airmass in place with a PWAT in excess of 2 inches. Latest trend on local radars was decrease in rainfall from the northwest but moderate to heavy rainfall was continuing along and south of the Highway 84 corridor. Latest guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall today will continue across our southern most zones before becoming much lighter this evening. A Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for this area as the rain amounts stack up and the potential remains for very heavy rainfall in a short amount of time. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Today...

Mesoanalysis around midnight shows +theta-e advection still occuring into the stalled frontal zone in the vicinity of I-20. This should be the focus for storm development this morning. This round of heavy rainfall could include as much as 4-5 inches, especially just south and parallel the I-20 corridor. Because of this, and increasing confidence for heavy rainfall impacts throughout the week, a significant has been introduced in the HWO graphic. This roughly matches with the moderate risk in the ERO by WPC. 3hr max QPF in the REFs this morning shows multiple bullseyes of 4-7 inches, and the mean is near the max, indicating the ceiling for rainfall this morning into the afternoon.

Through early next week...

Coverage of rain should decrease Wednesday as the trough axis passes, with reinforced shortwave ridging in advance of a tropical Gulf low. The aforementioned feature will be the focus for the second round of heavy rainfall, likely Thursday for our area. This feature will carry with it a very moist airmass possibly in excess of 2.5 inch PWAT. Given antecedent conditions, this additional round would likely exacerbate flash flood threat, especially for areas that receive great amounts today into tomorrow. While TC development probabilities have increased, the primary threat of flash flooding remains unchanged, therefore hazard messaging remains consistent.

There will also be a low end risk for severe associated with the tropical low. Despite moist adiabatic lapse rates, low level shear may be enhanced by the low. Along with significant deep moisture, embedded low topped supercells cannot be ruled out, though the risk remains low. The primary severe concerns would likely be wind and perhaps a weak tornado within the tropical regime.

The boundary begins to make headway into the area by the weekend and likely washes out this weekend. Airmass modification is likely slim, but PWAT, while still supportive of additional rainfall, will be more seasonal (1.5-1.7). This should provide some "break" from the onslaught of moisture, with coverage overall more scattered this weekend. Additional rainfall amounts Friday-Sunday generally look to be in the 1 to 3 inch range, with focus along and south of the HWY 84 corridor. Southwesterly flow will continue to reinforce rain chances through the remainder of the period, but increased westerly/northwesterly flow by the middle next week may mean that relief may be on the way. /SAS/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 118 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

GLH-GWO wl remain in VFR until after 06Z tonight. Elsewhere a mix of MVFR/IFR conditions along with periods of -RA/-SHRA wl continue until after 07Z when LIFR cigs wl develop and prevail through 14Z. Conditions wl slowly improve to MVFR cigs by 17Z. A gusty sw-s wind 18-22kt wl develop at GLH-GWO by 15Z Wed and continue through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 71 88 74 / 90 20 40 80 Meridian 79 70 88 74 / 100 30 50 80 Vicksburg 83 71 88 74 / 80 10 30 70 Hattiesburg 79 71 86 75 / 100 30 50 80 Natchez 81 72 88 75 / 100 10 50 90 Greenville 86 71 90 75 / 10 0 10 40 Greenwood 85 71 91 75 / 30 10 20 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.