textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Overall, there is little change in forecast reasoning. The synoptic pattern into early next week will feature troughing over the western CONUS and ridging along the East Coast. The resulting southerly low-level flow will bring a surge of deep moisture into the Plains and Mississippi River Valley regions to start the new week. PWAT values of 1.5 inches return to our area Sunday, with heat and humidity bringing chances for thunderstorms back into the forecast. Afternoon SBCAPE values should range from around 1500-2500 J/kg each day, and heat index values will approach the upper 90s Monday and Tuesday. There may be some storm organization at times which continues activity into the evening hours, but a front isn't expected to move into the region until mid next week, and even then only dip into our forecast area. Apart from rain and thunderstorms, early morning fog may be a concern at times due to the returning humidity. /NF/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Generally calm to southerly winds will prevail across the area with a potential for some higher wind speeds up into the mid teens in areas within and around the Delta. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. PIB/HBG have much stronger signals for fog/mist development tomorrow morning which could drop categories down to IFR/LIFR briefly around sunrise. /OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 64 86 69 / 0 0 20 0 Meridian 84 59 87 65 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 85 66 86 71 / 0 0 20 0 Hattiesburg 85 61 86 67 / 0 0 10 0 Natchez 86 67 87 72 / 0 0 50 0 Greenville 87 68 89 72 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 86 66 88 70 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.