textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible Sunday morning, especially in portions of south to southeast Mississippi.

- Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday through Saturday night with a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

In advance of an approaching upper-level shortwave, temperatures today are running about 10 degrees F warmer than average for mid- April. Highs in a few places could approach the 90 degree F mark, with most locations in the mid and upper 80s F at noon.

The upper shortwave is responsible for an area of surface low pressure centered across the Midwest which will move through the Great Lakes region tomorrow, with upper-level forcing focused north of our area. The cold front trailing to the south will help force showers across our forecast area tomorrow, but available instability will be limited. MLCAPE values will be in the 300-400 J/kg range during peak heating. With the lack of upper-level forcing, limited instability, and trailing nature of the cold front, impacts will be limited. The primary window for thunderstorms is likely from mid afternoon in the northwest, approximately along the Natchez Trace by early evening, and finally impacting southern portions of the area by early SAturday night. Average QPF is around 0.25-0.75 inches through Sunday morning, but locations along or northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor could receive over an inch of rain where the better chance for thunderstorms and heavier rain will be possible. Showers likely persist behind the front for a few hours Saturday night before moving out of the area fully by around dawn Sunday morning. Rain will generally end north to south. /NF/86/

The surface high behind this system will be fairly strong for mid-April. 1025+ mb is about 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal across the Mid-South. Cooler weather is expected (and dry) in the wake of this frontal passage. Widespread low temperatures near or a little cooler than 50 degrees tomorrow night, and then widespread in the 40s expected Sunday night into Monday. As the high translates farther eastward by midweek, some moisture return will allow for slight chance POPs to return to portions of the area./NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period with some lowering of VIS/CIG related flight categories to MVFR/IFR possible between 10Z and 14Z Sunday morning due to low stratus and patchy fog. Low clouds or fog are most likely for southern sites, HEZ/HBG/PIB, and will dissipate shortly after dawn. Gusty, southerly winds will be possible through 00Z this evening mostly at the Delta sites HEZ/GWO/GLH. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 84 49 71 / 0 30 90 10 Meridian 60 85 49 71 / 0 20 80 20 Vicksburg 64 84 49 72 / 0 50 90 10 Hattiesburg 61 86 52 73 / 0 10 60 30 Natchez 64 85 50 72 / 0 30 80 10 Greenville 67 79 49 69 / 10 80 80 0 Greenwood 66 82 48 72 / 0 70 90 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.