textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress (limited to elevated) today.

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for portions of the area both today & Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

This afternoon through Friday night: Sub-tropical ridging will weaken across the region this weekend. This will yet again allow troughing/low pressure aloft to become the primary weather feature across the region through much of the forecast period. Beginning this afternoon, rain chances will increase across the forecast area, with very good chances continuing each day through at least the middle of next week.

Still, and at least for this afternoon, hot humid conditions will exist areawide as highs climb into the middle 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the 70s, is bringing heat index values climbing up to near 110F, especially in the upper ArkLaMiss Delta region where a heat advisory was issued after coordination with MEG/LZK offices. After today, with the better rain chances forecast through at least the middle of next week, the potential for dangerous heat stress will be squashed.

This evening: With a bit more of a northwest flow aloft setting up across the region this weekend, attention will need to be paid upstream for any complex of storms that could potentially affect the CWA. The first of such looks to come late this afternoon into this evening as a complex is currently progged to drop south and potentially into far northern portions of the area. As a result, a "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms resides across northern portions of the area for mainly this evening into the overnight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary concern with such storms, although heavy downpours and frequent lightning can both be expected.

Late tonight through Sunday morning: A multitude of near term high-res guidance indicate a relative lull in the convection going into Sunday morning, and so that is the general idea for this forecast. Don't be surprised if there is a lingering strong storm or two around daybreak that persists from the overnight activity. There is a signal for this in the 12z REFS (more specically the 12z HRRR and REFS control members). Expect this activity, if it exists, to wash out shortly after daybreak and not be a huge influence on how convection develops later Sunday.

Otherwise, as a frontal boundary tries to settle into the region late Sunday into early week, we'll again maintain good chances for showers and storms across the area. South of this boundary, a very moist and unstable airmass will continue to reside across the CWA. Another "Marginal Risk" for isolated severe storms capable of producing damaging wind gusts will again exist across much of the CWA Sunday afternoon and evening as a result. Again, both heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected with convection.

Although this boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass, these rain chances will persist into at least Wednesday. While severe storms currently aren't forecast after Sunday, given the again overall continued unstable environment, the most intense storms could still produce gusty winds, along with heavy downpours, and frequent lightning.

Finally, come Thursday and continuing into Friday, ridging aloft reasserting itself over the region from the east is progged to lessen said rain chances late in the forecast period. However, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to increased heat stress conditions across portions of the forecast area. /19/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated VCTS/TSRA will be possible through the period. Winds will be southwesterly and light with sustained less than 10mph and gusts less than 15mph. /KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 89 72 87 / 20 90 70 60 Meridian 75 90 72 86 / 10 70 70 70 Vicksburg 76 90 72 88 / 30 80 80 60 Hattiesburg 76 91 73 85 / 10 80 70 90 Natchez 75 91 73 86 / 10 80 70 90 Greenville 75 90 72 89 / 80 50 40 30 Greenwood 74 90 72 89 / 70 60 40 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034.

LA...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.