textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return to portions of the area today.

- Heavier rain is possible especially Saturday and Sunday.

- Cooler weather will arrive with a strong cold front Monday into the new work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A low pressure system over the Southern High Plains today will begin breaking down and shearing out. As the wave stretches to the east and is absorbed in the flow, it will drag a cold frontal boundary from Texas to the Carolinas over the weekend. Pooled moisture along the front will support heavy rain, but the primary surge of 2+ PWATs will arrive from the south with an easterly wave Friday night into Saturday. The combination of mainly westerly flow, ascent along the flank of the subtropical jet stream, and anomalously high moisture content will result in heavy rain for parts of the broader Gulf Coast region. Guidance is in agreement that heaviest amounts through the weekend will likely be close to the Gulf Coast itself. Average totals will be near 0.75 inches in the Delta region and closer to 2 inches in the Pine Belt region. Where showers and storms fall over the same areas, upper end forecasts suggest 3 to 4 inches of rain could fall through the weekend. At this time, no widespread flash flooding is expected in our area, but will monitor trends in guidance.

By Monday, however, a surging polar cold front will sweep into the Mid-South and Gulf Coast. A breezy and cooling north wind will persist through the day Monday and chase the decreasing rain chances. A 1025mb surface high moving from the Canadian Prairies toward the Mid-Atlantic is around the 90th percentile in strength for this time of year. We won't receive the full force of this high, but cooler temps will still be felt! Low temperatures Monday night and onward look to range from the 50s to near 60 degrees. These values would be about 5-15 degrees below normal for early October. /NF/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Fog is visible on satellite and on traffic cameras this morning around Hattiesburg. Included FG in the TAF at HBG this morning through 14z. There may be a brief reduction in visibility at MEI, PIB, JAN, HKS as well if this fog deck spreads further north.

Winds will be from the southeast and there may be gusts up to 20kts in spots. Showers will begin this afternoon in the vicinity of HBG and PIB around 22z. The showers will spread northward and taper off around 3z.

There is a high chance for dense fog tomorrow morning, possibly widespread. FG was added to HBG and PIB for tomorrow morning, more places could be added later. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 70 92 70 / 30 10 40 30 Meridian 92 68 91 69 / 20 10 50 30 Vicksburg 93 70 92 68 / 20 10 30 30 Hattiesburg 92 70 91 70 / 60 10 70 30 Natchez 93 71 93 70 / 30 10 40 40 Greenville 95 72 91 68 / 10 10 50 40 Greenwood 94 71 93 68 / 10 10 40 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.