textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue into the start of the weekend.

- Chances for rain each day, with a greater chance for showers and storms this weekend as a cold front moves through. - Localized heavy rainfall is possible Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Through Tonight: Continued warmer than normal through tonight but with rain chances focused in the west this afternoon into early evening. Early morning water vapor imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a shortwave trough over the central Plains. This shortwave and its attendant surface low will track northeast and essentially strand a trailing cold front that will approach our northwest this afternoon. The surface ridge that has been nosing west across our southern zones will hang tough and the cold front is expected to stall just northwest of our CWA tonight. The resulting southerly low level flow around the surface ridge will help maintain PWATs close to an inch and a half although greater moisture will pool in our west just ahead of the cold front. Daytime heating of this moisture and convection along and just ahead of the cold front will result in decent rain chances this afternoon and early evening over the western half of the CWA. Although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out, any potential for severe weather in our northwest will be very low. /22/

Friday through mid next week...

A weak cold front late Thursday stalls over the area and likely becomes washed out. With no airmass change expected, mainly diurnally driven showers and storms will once again be possible Friday. Scattered showers will be possible in advance of a cold front this weekend. Guidance has slowed the progression of the front as ridging continues to remain stubborn through the weekend. The bulk of activity associated with the front may be pushed back overnight Saturday into early Sunday. Weak lapse rates, weak shear, and weak forcing all limit potential for greater severe, but an isolated stronger storm cannot be ruled out with a primary hail/wind threat. Deep moisture could lead to isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

In the wake, sometime later Sunday, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week, until the later half of the week when weak moisture recovery should bring slight rain chances back into the forecast, mainly in the southwest. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

A mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail until improving to VFR by 17Z. By 17Z a gusty 18-22kts south wind will develop over the western half of the area before subsiding by 23Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be psbl again this aftn into early evening with greatest coverage in the west. VFR conditions and a lighter south wind wl prevail after 02Z FRI but MVFR cigs wl develop from the south again after 09Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 83 65 85 66 / 40 20 10 0 Meridian 85 63 85 63 / 10 10 0 0 Vicksburg 84 67 85 66 / 50 10 40 10 Hattiesburg 85 65 85 66 / 20 10 10 0 Natchez 84 68 85 67 / 70 10 50 10 Greenville 82 68 85 68 / 30 20 30 30 Greenwood 85 67 87 67 / 30 20 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.