textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system will bring a slight to marginal risk for severe weather Monday night and Tuesday along with locally heavy rain.

- Much cooler and drier air will surge into the area Wednesday and continue the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

- Heavy rainfall could become a concern by early next week for northwest portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Tonight through Tuesday:

Stratus lingering over much the area today struggling to clear out, and it may only redevelop tonight along with a fog threat given the cool/humid boundary layer conditions didn't get to mix out much today. As of now, it seems the coolest and most humid locations are along/south of the Hwy 84 corridor, and so have indicated the greater fog potential there in the forecast, but the fog forecast confidence is not great overall.

Once any fog dissipates early Monday, attention will turn to a shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains and approaching the Lower MS Valley by late in the day. Low level winds and moisture transport will increase quickly over the forecast area in response to the height/pressure falls, and increasing instability and deep layer wind shear will create an environment supportive of organized thunderstorm activity as we go through Monday night. Of greatest concern Low level shear may become favorable for a few tornadoes, mainly over western portions of the area where a slight risk is now being messaged, but recent high-res guidance are showing a signal for discrete supercell development in the open warm sector well ahead of the more organized storms that may have good access to richer boundary layer moisture that could result in low tornado probabilities a bit further east late Monday night.

By Tuesday, as synoptic scale ascent wanes, we should see overall storm coverage/intensity diminish ahead of a lingering surface boundary that will continue pushing east. A few storms may re- intensify with daytime heating over central/eastern MS and we are messaging a marginal risk for this threat. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into Tuesday night before conditions dry out late.

Wednesday through Friday night: A significant weather pattern change will take place with cool continental polar air surging into the area behind a cold front Wednesday. It appears that at least a light freeze should occur Thursday night for northern portions of the area, and then for a larger portion of the area Friday night when clear skies and light wind will be more common with surface high pressure in a more favorable position.

Next weekend: It is definitely worth mentioning the day 7-8 period for this forecast as quite an active weather pattern could develop over much of the central CONUS by that time as a major longwave trough sets up over the Rockies into the Plains while a strong ridge builds up the East Coast, thus placing our area in favorable deep southwest flow aloft for several rounds of showers and storms. As of now, global models are showing increasing potential for heavy rainfall to develop, especially over the ArkLaMiss Delta region where it would be supported by the current La Nina. This is just something to keep an eye on for the next few days. /EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Low stratus and patchy/areas of dense fog will once again be possible this morning. Fog is more likely at PIB and HBG. Conditions should improve to VFR mid morning. Further north and west tomorrow evening could see VCTS/-TSRA. Winds will be light from the southeast./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 51 77 64 / 0 0 10 80 Meridian 66 49 77 60 / 0 0 0 60 Vicksburg 63 51 78 64 / 0 0 50 90 Hattiesburg 71 51 82 65 / 0 0 0 40 Natchez 62 51 80 64 / 0 0 40 80 Greenville 59 50 72 62 / 0 0 60 90 Greenwood 64 50 74 62 / 0 0 30 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.