textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday evening into Friday night.

- Additional rounds of showers and strong to severe storms will continue into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Through tonight: The ridging aloft that is over our region early this morning will shift east through the period while the surface ridge across our CWA from the east will persist. This will continue to lead to moisture return through tonight. Daytime heating of the increase in moisture will lead to a chance of showers and thunderstorms over our southwest this afternoon. This convection will see a distinct diurnal trend and dissipate early this evening. The increase in moisture will also support patchy fog development in the south early this morning and again toward sunrise Friday morning. Warmer than normal temperatures are also expected through the period. /22/

Through late next week:

An active jet pattern will promote increased rain and storm chances beginning this weekend and persisting into next week. The break down of the surface subtropical high that has kept drier air locked over the region will allow for moisture recovery and maintenance of moist airmass with no substantial airmass change expected through the period. The primary focus for now is a convective system poised to grow upscale and push across the area later Friday. Analysis of available CAM guidance shows that the most favorable zone for severe threat exists roughly along the HWY 82 corridor, as here is where shear is most favorably aligned relative to storm motion and orientation. Further south and west, shear is more line parallel, thus the cold pool is more likely to overwhelm convection in these areas. It is possible that the thermal and shear environment will be sufficient to support cold pool maintenance, so even these areas will have be monitored. The slight risk has been expanded across the I-20 corridor for Friday. CAM soundings generally supported convection becoming elevated south of I-20 amid waning surface based instability Friday evening. Given this, I-20 seems like a fair cutoff for severe threat.

Following storms Friday, there is good consensus among CAM guidance the environment wont recover in time to support much convection Saturday, which conceptually makes sense. However, global models seem to be struggling to resolve this. Have opted to cap PoP on Saturday.

The environment recovers by Sunday and is supportive of mainly diurnal convection through early week as the jet remains displaced north. Severe threat looks to increase again Monday night as stronger flow with a shortwave could support more organized convection. There is a slight risk highlighted by SPC for this, but locally will focus on Friday threat first.

A more substantial shortwave could support more organized convection later next week and possibly a greater severe threat. This will have to be monitored closely. /SAS/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1256 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

With the exception of a brief period 10Z-13Z of MVFR/IFR conditions in the se, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 62 84 65 / 10 0 50 80 Meridian 84 59 84 63 / 0 0 40 70 Vicksburg 85 63 86 65 / 20 0 50 70 Hattiesburg 84 61 84 64 / 10 0 40 40 Natchez 84 64 85 65 / 30 10 50 50 Greenville 85 65 83 65 / 10 0 70 90 Greenwood 85 64 84 65 / 10 0 60 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.