textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical depression 9 has formed and is expected to intensify over the western and central Gulf during the next few days, and it should begin impacting the northern Gulf Coast region as we approach the weekend. - Heavy rainfall and windy conditions related to the cyclone may impact our forecast area this weekend, but there is a good bit of uncertainty concerning specific timing.

- Ahead of the potential system, fire weather danger could increase late this week over mainly northern portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Most attention is on the tropical system expected to impact our forecast area this weekend, particularly in the Fri night to Sat night time frame. Until there is a better developed and defined tropical cyclone, model spread in the timing is greater than unusual resulting in low confidence on when we might experience the worst impacts. However, the idea that the center of the system may track northward through eastern portions of the area is very plausible, and this would support heavier rainfall/windy conditions mainly along/east of the I-55 corridor at some point this weekend.

Given the system is likely to be more extratropical in nature and enhanced by upper jet dynamics, we may see a heavier rainfall band develop northwest of the surface low in association with a mid level trough/low. Some guidance suggest this could be west of the I-55 corridor, but we'll message for greater rain/wind threats in our central/eastern areas until/unless confidence increases in that potential. Recent mostly dry weather will help to limit flash flood concerns in any case, and with the center more likely to be east than west, any low end tornado threats would likely be to our east well. What is a little tricker is figuring out gradient wind impacts as wind envelopes with the extratropical systems tend to expand. Ultimately, a 12 to 18 hr period of windy/rainy conditions seems like a plausible scenario for much of the area at some point in the Fri night to Sat night time frame.

Otherwise, it is worth noting that subsidence around the developing tropical system could lead to an increase in fire weather danger due to increased mixing and hot/dry/breezy conditions, especially we get to the Thu-Fri time frame. Looking ahead to beyond the system, we'll see drier and hotter conditions return beneath an unseasonably strong subtropical high centered over our region early next week. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail at all area TAF sites for the remainder of the forecast period. Winds will be from the east northeast between 5-10 knots. These will subside to calm to around 3 knots from the east tonight./KP/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 89 63 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 87 60 88 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 90 64 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 87 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 89 65 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 88 62 89 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 61 92 60 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.