textproduct: Jackson

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

This Evening...

A recently issued Tornado Watch includes Bolivar County along with much of north MS. The severe threat in our northwest is projected to be greatest just outside the CWA. That being said, there remains a non-zero chance of the front/line stalling through some of our more northwestern counties (roughly speaking these will be: Ashley & Chicot AR, Bolivar & Sunflower MS). It is with this chance in mind that the severe weather threat remains highlighted across various NWS Jackson products. Should the front limp its way into the CWA, any thunderstorms that develop along it could be severe. Those cells will summarily exit the region to the northeast, causing any major impacts to be short-lived. This threat exists from early evening through around midnight tonight.

Thursday through Friday...

The forecast remains relatively unchanged for Thursday and Friday: Should the front stall where we are projecting (just to the north of the CWA), a renewed bout of severe weather is expected along it after sunrise. Daytime heating will reinvigorate latent frontal instability, sparking a continuation of Wednesday's weather in terms of coverage. The front may amble southward just enough to lie between Cleveland and Greenville. Any cells that develop in our area will quickly exit within an hour or two to the northeast. Severe weather parameters are expected to be tempered compared to today, with severe cells being less widespread and max winds/hail projected to top out at 60mph and quarter size respectively. Thunderstorm activity will reach a crescendo during the mid afternoon hours and wane with the sun.

This Weekend...

A brief retrograding of the much discussed stationary front early Saturday morning will portend a strengthening and focusing of latent instability. An upper level trough ejecting out of Oklahoma will draw the front northward, while reinforcing said front with much more favorable atmospheric dynamics. A surface low, having developed upstream in response to these dynamics, will ensnare the stationary front and drag it through the area by Sunday morning. As the front clears the area, expect widespread strong to severe thunderstorm activity along and behind.

The primary challenge remains in cementing the timing, which remains dependent on upstream features that have yet to materialize, of frontal passage this weekend. For the time being we are confident in a time frame between Saturday afternoon and noon Sunday.

At the present moment we are communicating an Enhanced (3/5) Severe Storm Threat, given the ever-growing convergence of model guidance and the favorable parameters which they are displaying; expect an adjustment upwards as we draw nearer this weekend. Addressing those parameters: A wealth of moisture will be on tap as we continue to see sturdy southerly winds bringing with it dewpoints and temperatures that are several degrees above seasonal norms, CAPE around 2000 J/kg, low and mid level height drops of 10-15 dm/24 hours, textbook directional shear with SRH at over 300.

Next Week...

A welcome reprieve is in store for next week. Cooler and drier conditions will build in behind this system's cold front. Barring a significant cool-off, no significant weather is expect through mid-week next week. Speaking of that cool-off, temperatures will shift from being about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal to end this week to about 10 degrees cooler than normal to start the new week. Dust off those hoodies, overnight lows will range from the upper 30s through the mid 40s next week. Highs will slowly rebound through the week from the low 60s Monday afternoon, mid 60s Tuesday, and upper 60s Wednesday./OAJ/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

Low stratus across the area will continue to result in MVFR flight categories prevailing at area TAF sites overnight and through much of the morning. Stratus will erode during the late morning, with a return to VFR categories expected this afternoon. However, flight categories will again return to MVFR status this evening into tonight as low stratus again develops, with some showers and storms possible across mainly the Delta region. Winds will remain breezy from the south tonight sustained 10-15 knots, gusting to around 25 knots at times. These will become gusty from the south by late morning, sustained around 20 knots, while gusting between 30-40 knots at times. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 88 72 87 72 / 0 10 40 10 Meridian 86 69 87 69 / 10 0 30 0 Vicksburg 90 73 88 73 / 10 10 30 10 Hattiesburg 87 71 86 71 / 10 0 30 10 Natchez 88 73 88 73 / 0 0 30 10 Greenville 85 71 86 71 / 60 40 50 30 Greenwood 88 72 87 73 / 40 20 40 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.