textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat stress will increase in the west Wednesday, then worsen Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Through early next week (Tuesday)...

Today (Wednesday): RAP/water vapor analysis indicates upper low is situated northern GA and corner of the Carolinas this morning and 595DM mid level ridge over the Desert Southwest, leading to continued northerly dry flow across the Gulf Coast states. This locks in PWs generally around one inch (1.1 to 1.3 inches) and low humidity aloft (i.e. 700-300mb layer humidity in the low teens to single digits) and another day of efficient mixing. This leads to moderating temperatures: highs becoming seasonably warm into Wednesday (93F to 97F) and seasonable lows (68F to 71F this morning to 70F to 74F Wednesday night). Heat indices will gradually increase today in southwestern areas (heat indices in the 102F to 105F range this afternoon). Inherited HWO graphic for Limited heat in southwest today seems reasonable. Cannot rule out a stray shower in the extreme southwest MS and northeast LA where deep moisture will be higher and diurnally induced convection may develop.

Late week into early next week (Thursday through next Tuesday): As the upper low weakens the grip over the Southeast beginning tomorrow, low level southerly return flow and an uptick in moisture (low and deep layer moisture) will favor less efficient mixing, warmth/moist advection and increasing heat stress late week through the weekend. Mixing on Thursday will be increased in central to northeast MS where low humidity aloft will reside. Temperatures will be seasonably warm (highs in the 94F to 97F range and lows in the 72F to 76F range). The region will remain in more of a large scale weakness in the flow but low level flow will help moderate in higher surface dewpoints into the weekend (72F to 76F) and increasing heat stress concerns. With inherited HWO graphic of lower threat today than Thursday into weekend, decided to go ahead with an HWO graphic into the weekend. Will likely depict a larger threat area to show an expanding concern and likely areawide into the weekend. Further adjustments, expansions and heat headlines will likely be needed.

Low level moist advection and increased deep moisture aloft will increase Thursday and into the weekend (PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range by the weekend into early next week). Rain chances will mainly be summertime variety (diurnally induced) Thursday south of Interstate 20 and along and southeast of Natchez Trace into the weekend and spreading northwest into early next week. Coverage will be isolated to at times scattered coverage (20 to 45 percent range) to a little more numerous in the Pine Belt early next week from deep moisture (PWs in excess of 2.0 inches) and potentially sea breeze influence. This pattern will not favor any noteworthy storm threat, but a few scattered stronger gusty storms with locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, especially late weekend into early next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

VFR flight conditions with variable winds will prevail through the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 96 72 96 73 / 0 0 20 0 Meridian 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 0 Vicksburg 95 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 0 Hattiesburg 97 74 96 72 / 10 0 30 0 Natchez 97 73 96 73 / 20 0 30 10 Greenville 96 73 96 74 / 0 0 20 0 Greenwood 95 72 96 74 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.