textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding remains likely across portions of the area this week, with flooding potential worsening into late week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rest of tonight...

Mid level ridge remains over central to southern Gulf, with westerly flow aloft. The region remains under the scope of the large mean synoptic trough east of the Rockies. Deep tropical moisture remains in the area (GOES East total precipitable water and observed 00Z soundings near 2.2 to 2.3 inches). Stationary front remains parked across the Hwy 82 corridor, with deep moisture and nearly 345K 850mb Theta E progged to continue through the overnight period. Shortwave in the northern Plains, evident in GOES East water vapor imagery and evident in global models, is progged to dive southeast through daybreak Tuesday. This will be occurring in conjunction with broad area of thunderstorms in south TX to northern Mexico. In between, increased ascent from northern wave and ascent/convergence from more subtle shortwaves in the westerly flow will drive convective initiation again into the overnight hours, likely after midnight and continue into the day Tuesday. There won't be much destabilization for stronger storms. Heavy rain remains the main concern into the overnight hours. CAMs indicate some localized heavy rain potential overnight (2 to 4 inches, with locally higher amounts not fully ruled out). REFS and 00Z HRRR indicate that potential stretching from near Wisner LA to Natchez into Crystal Springs into Bay Springs in MS. Definitely something to watch, especially if that axis shifts north into the Interstate 20 corridor, where recent rains of 2 to 4 inches fell last night. In addition, heavy totals are also in the Adams MS to Catahoula LA areas (2 to 5 inches with locally higher amounts in the extreme southwest portions of Catahoula and Concordia). Based on some eastern extension tonight of the rainfall axis and likelihood heavy rain axis shifting east with time, expanded the Flood Watch east to include Scott into Newton counties and southward into Jones to Forrest to Lamar counties in southeast MS. The flood watch goes into late Wednesday night through daybreak Thursday. The local HWO flash flood graphic was adjusted accordingly. Widespread clouds and rain should keep temperatures up but lows will less seasonably warm, some 2F to 5F above (71F to 73F over central to southwest areas while 68F to 70F in the northeast into the Golden Triangle region). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

This afternoon through Tuesday Night ...

Flash flooding potential will continue to be the primary focus through the forecast period for much of the area. A tropical airmass remains in place with PWATs well above 2 inches as of this afternoon thanks to the frontal boundary stalling over the southeast CONUS. Current mesoanalysis from this afternoon still shows a favorable area near the Jackson metro with positive theta e advection along the stalled boundary. Heavy downpours will continue across much of the area through Tuesday. At this time, no changes have been made to the flood graphic and a "Elevated" risk for flash flooding will continue to be advertised for the southern half of our forecast area. Likewise, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect through Wednesday morning, especially for areas highlighted in the "Elevated" risk.

There is a possibility that the Flash Flood Watch could be expanded further east to cover the rest of southern MS and could get extended through Friday morning. Will reassess during the evening shift later this evening to see if an extension of the the current Flood Watch may be needed. Showers will begin to decrease in coverage Tuesday night with overnight lows dipping into the upper 60s/lower 70s. /CR/

The forecast messaging for the extended forecast period remains the same with no major changes made. The trough axis will push out of the area on Wednesday giving us a brief break from the rain. A second round of heavy rainfall will make a return to the area Thursday/Friday thanks to reinforced shortwave ridging in advance of a tropical Gulf low. Please see the previous forecast discussion down below for more information:

Wednesday through Monday...

There may be a brief break in rain, and certainly heavier rain, later Wednesday as the trough axis passes, with reinforced shortwave ridging in advance of a tropical Gulf low. The aforementioned feature will be the focus for the second round of heavy rainfall, likely Thursday for our area. This feature will carry with it a very moist airmass possibly in excess of 2.3-2.5 inch PWAT. Given antecedent conditions, this additional round would likely exacerbate flash flood threat, especially for areas that receive great amounts during the first half of the week. Expect flash flood messaging to be fine tuned and extended into late week as we get closer.

There looks to be potentially an additional concern Friday for the I- 20 corridor in the wake of the low as the stalled boundary once again becomes a focus for training convection. Details still need to be ironed out, but would not be surprised if a significant will be needed for a targeted area that may get in on all rounds of heavy rain throughout the week.

The boundary begins to make headway into the area by the weekend, though likely will not push out entirely. The slightly "drier" air in its wake, especially for north of I-20, should provide some break from the rainfall, with coverage overall more scattered both Saturday and Sunday. That said, airmass change is insignificant, as is often the case this time of year, and rain chances don't go away completely. However, the airmass may be more seasonal with less deep tropical moisture. Southwesterly low level flow will continue to reinforce the wetter pattern into next week. Slightly lower rain chances (PoPs between 15-30%) will be possible across much of our CWA looking ahead into Monday. /SAS/CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 942 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Some light SHRA remain across the area, then SHRA and TSRA picking back up in coverage after 16/06-08Z from southwest to north through daybreak. This will bring scattered to numerous coverage at most but especially central to southern TAF sites (HKS, JAN, MEI, PIB, HBG and HEZ), which could lead to MVFR visibilities for some period of the day. Scattered to broken deck of stratus (MVFR to IFR ceilings) area likely for most areas. IFR stratus/ceilings improve to MVFR mid morning around 16/16-18Z, with most SHRA and TSRA coverage the highest in the Interstate 20 to Highway 84 corridors through morning. Some locally heavy downpours are possible overnight through the day Tuesday, which could bring much lowered flight restrictions from reduced visibilities and some more restrictive stratus. Winds will remain light and variable through the overnight, with Tuesday afternoon under light southwesterly winds. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 79 70 87 / 100 100 30 60 Meridian 70 77 70 87 / 100 100 40 60 Vicksburg 70 80 71 88 / 90 90 10 40 Hattiesburg 72 78 71 86 / 70 90 60 80 Natchez 72 79 72 87 / 90 100 40 70 Greenville 70 84 71 89 / 60 50 20 10 Greenwood 70 84 71 90 / 60 60 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for MSZ040>043-047>051- 053>057-059>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...None.