textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- An Elevated threat for dangerous heat stress conditions is expected through this weekend and into next week. Significant heat is possible in some areas.

- Rain chances are minimal through most of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

The threat for dangerous heat stress conditions is our one and only message at the moment. The subtropical ridge building/expanding/intensifying overhead as we move into the weekend will be quite strong. 500mb heights of 597 to 598 dam are just below records for mid August. Subsidence beneath the ridge and increased sunshine will continue to dry and bake the South into next week. As the ridge strengthens, some of the humidity will be eased, but actual air temperatures will begin to push or exceed 100 degrees. The combination of heat and humidity will ensure most days see peak heat index values in the 105-110 degree range through the weekend.

Local temperature climatology studies suggest that a range of 850mb temperatures of 21-24C would support high temperatures pretty reasonably in the 97 to 103 degree range. Official forecast values are on the upper end of this range, so would cautiously say that parts of our forecast area could hit the 100 degree mark during the next 7 days. Deeper mixing would push the dew points slightly lower, but feel pretty confident in the 105+ heat index values. Will continue to monitor for potential expansion and increase of messaging to "Significant" risk of dangerous heat (110+ heat index or 105+ air temperature) as we move into late week and the weekend. An areawide Heat Advisory is in effect, and expect additional Advisories or Excessive Heat Warnings to be issued over the coming days.\

Rain chances are low to non-existant over the 7 day stretch, but stray showers or storms cannot be entirely ruled out at times. /NF/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026

Very isolated SHRA cannot be ruled out later this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 97 77 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 97 77 98 76 / 0 10 0 0 Vicksburg 97 77 97 75 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 98 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 98 76 98 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 98 79 99 79 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 96 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.