textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased rain chances continue today, and locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Through tonight: greatest rain chances through the week are expected today and local radars already indicate the rain will get an early start. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a southern stream upper level trough from the mid Mississippi valley back across the southern Plains that will swing across our region through tonight. Our airmass was rather moist with PWATs running around two inches per the 00Z Sun JAN sounding. As the trough approaches this morning, and daytime heating commences, showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to develop and move across the CWA. There was still a weak stationary frontal boundary nearly along a line from West Point to Bastrop. The main focus for convection today is expected to be along and south of this boundary that will remain in place today before shifting southeast tonight as the upper level trough shifts east of Mississippi. The early start to convection should limit overall instability today but there may be some locally heavy downpours in areas where the storms train. /22/

Through next weekend...

Guidance has shifted a bit tonight compared to 24 hours ago and coverage of stratiform showers didn't quite pan out as expected. It still looks like the main synoptic front will make headway into our northern areas, bringing a push of dry air Monday into Tuesday, however it stalls as it loses upper support near the I-20 corridor and struggles to push further south. This means that for areas south of I-20, the airmass will remain largely unchanged. Low rain chances (20% or less) could persist into Tuesday south of I-20, a little later than previous forecasts. High pressure will establish easterlies over the area which will push a backdoor front into the area. This now looks to be the main push of drier air mid week before a a shortwave/upper low out of Texas promote return flow. As stated previously, lapse rates are moist adiabatic and don't support severe, but the deep moisture could potentially lead to a heavy rain threat that necessitates monitoring. GFS is most aggressive with this with a prominent Gulf low feature, other models are weaker, which is probably the more likely scenario. The area of heaviest rain potential is teetering on the edge of the CWA. It very well could be east of our area, or is it could be in the I-59 corridor, but it is too uncertain to tell at this time. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Poor flying conditions are expected through the TAF period cntrl and south. A mix of VFR to IFR cigs will continue through 15Z. Numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA wl develop across the area this morning and slowly taper off from the north this aftn. TAF sites across the north wl improve to VFR this aftn but sites cntrl and south will continue in MVFR/IFR conditions through the end of the TAF period./22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 83 67 86 63 / 70 20 0 0 Meridian 80 65 85 61 / 90 40 20 0 Vicksburg 83 64 86 60 / 50 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 80 68 84 66 / 90 40 30 10 Natchez 82 66 86 63 / 70 20 10 0 Greenville 83 63 85 57 / 30 10 0 0 Greenwood 85 63 87 56 / 30 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.