textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms remain possible across the area this afternoon into tonight.

- Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

In addition to today's unfolding weather event, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times through at least the middle of this week as a springtime severe pattern remains active in the Southern Plains.

An overnight MCS spilling out of the High Plains and Ozarks still remains a focus for ongoing showers and storms in our region this afternoon. It lost a little of its overnight momentum, but new storms organizing along the outflow boundary have access to an unstable air mass along the southern flank of the MCS. Latest RAP Mesoanalysis showed 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE from southwest AR and northern LA southeast through the Pine Belt in southeast MS. A north- south axis of deeper moisture (PWATs of 1.5+ inches) intersects this instability axis, sustaining current MCS with additional moisture. Effective deep layer shear is about 30-40 kts in our area, supporting organized convection and possible supercell development. Expectation is for an additional southward push of storms with this cluster through this afternoon and evening. Supercells are already developing in the Red River Valley area of OK this afternoon, and some high-res CAM guidance gives this second area of development the chance to organize into a separate squall that could push southeastward into our CWA later tonight. Confidence on timing of peak severe chances in our area is not the greatest, but one or both waves should be clearing to southern parts of our area in the midnight to 7 AM time frame tomorrow morning.

Tomorrow into next week, the pattern looks to remain active, as mentioned. Remnant outflow boundaries stretched out in the region will remain the focus for renewed development of convection, but the key will be triggering of new upstream convection in the Southern Plains and possible MCS development spreading into our area as a result. The next focus for watching will be a potential MCS later tomorrow night, which currently warrants a Marginal Risk for severe storms extending into northeast LA and southeast AR before sunrise Sunday and expanding to the rest of the area into the day Sunday. Thunderstorm chances remain in place through Friday across our region, which as mentioned, has the potential to be strong to severe if timed out favorably with heating and the passage of upper-level disturbances over the region. Residents should remain alert to changes in forecasted impacts over the next several days. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A mix of MVFR/VFR ceilings prevail at TAF sites this afternoon, but showers and thunderstorms are moving into the Delta. These storms will spread southward across the area through the evening hours and this will bring IFR/MVFR conditions to sites into the overnight hours. After the storms shift southeast of the area expect sites to experience LIFR/IFR conditions into Saturday morning. The winds will be mainly southerly at 5-10kts, but expect gusty and variable winds near thunderstorms./15

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 81 65 83 / 80 70 40 50 Meridian 62 81 62 83 / 70 90 30 40 Vicksburg 64 82 66 84 / 80 50 40 50 Hattiesburg 64 85 66 86 / 30 60 30 50 Natchez 65 86 67 87 / 60 40 30 50 Greenville 64 79 65 80 / 100 40 50 50 Greenwood 64 80 63 82 / 100 50 40 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.