textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system crossing the forecast area this weekend will bring breezy winds Saturday and showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 908 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Near term guidance this morning shows a >1024mb sfc high over the east CONUS. This will allow for quiet weather conditions to persist across our forecast area through the afternoon. A quick look at GOES 16 visible satellite show low to mid clouds across southeast portions of our CWA this morning. These clouds should clear out later by this afternoon. Elsewhere, sky conditions will be generally clear. Daytime highs will peak into the low to mid 70s across much of our area. A few areas across the Golden Triangle will see afternoon highs peak into the upper 60s. /CR/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Through tonight: continued warmer than normal and dry until the very end of the period. Early morning surface analysis had a >1024mb high centered over the Great lakes region. This surface high will continue moving east southeast and become centered over the mid Atlantic seaboard by Saturday morning. This will result in a very light return flow across our CWA this afternoon. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low spinning just off the southern California coast. The closed low is progged to track east through tonight and be centered over old Mexico by sunrise Saturday. There is a low chance that some of the precipitation associated with this close low may spread into the western most zones of our CWA just prior to sunrise. Otherwise, temperatures will top out a little warmer than on Thursday and morning lows Saturday will be several degrees warmer than this morning. /22/

Saturday through late next week...

There continues to be the potential for severe weather, mainly overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning. A shortwave and attendant surface low will support a strongly forced squall line. Given the strong shear profile and storm mode, damaging wind should be the primary concern, however tornadoes will be possible in bowing segments and line surges. The main failure modes lie in the suppressed nature of the system, with the surface low tracking pretty far south, over central parts of our area. This leads to a suppressed warm sector and questionable moisture recovery. Area of greatest potential will be south of I-20 and west of I-55 which is the area highlighted under a marginal risk. Aside from storms, tightening pressure gradient in response to the deepening surface low will result in gusty winds, around 25mph. Some heavy rain will also be possible given anomalous moisture, however the progressive nature of the system should limit flood risk.

In the wake of the low, weather will be quiet under reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80s by late week and lows in the 50s. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week ahead of our next shortwave which will bring a return of rain and storm chances by next weekend./SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 604 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

IFR conditions wl prevail through 14Z before improving. By 16Z VFR conditions wl prevail areawide and continue through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 54 74 60 / 0 0 10 100 Meridian 72 48 75 58 / 0 0 10 90 Vicksburg 74 55 75 59 / 0 10 20 100 Hattiesburg 76 52 77 60 / 0 0 20 90 Natchez 77 57 75 60 / 0 0 20 100 Greenville 69 53 73 59 / 0 10 40 100 Greenwood 70 52 75 60 / 0 10 30 100

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.