textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an increased threat for fire danger conditions across the forecast area through the weekend.

- A strong, dry cold front will bring windy conditions Friday.

- Very little if any rainfall is expected through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

An unusually strong and warm subtropical ridge is persisting over the forecast area. This will bring additional threats for record warmth, and an increased threat for fire danger as we go through the next few days. Meanwhile, a significant shortwave trough is forecast by all guidance to track southeast from western Canada into the eastern CONUS in the near term. As this happens, a strong surface cold front will push across the area Friday. Unfortunately, a very tight pressure gradient that develops in the rapid transition from strong ridge to strong trough will result in windy conditions Friday.

Given there is very little to no rainfall expected with the front, the combination of dry/windy conditions will further enhance the fire danger risk, and we will likely need to issue fire product headlines. In addition, we will to continue message the limited gradient wind threat through our graphics, and monitor the potential for greater threats and wind related headlines. Otherwise, it is worth noting that cooler temperatures more typical for this time of the year will be arriving.

Looking ahead, it appears the lower heights associated with the trough will be temporary in the progressive upper level pattern, so expect ridging to quickly return by early to mid next week with surface temperatures warming back up in response. The potential for getting rainfall is quite low with this pattern. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

As of 1723Z, all sites are reporting VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across the area through 09Z Thursday. After 09Z Thursday, several southern TAF sites (HEZ, PIB, and HBG) will start to see ceilings drop to IFR/LIFR status due to a low stratus cloud deck and patchy fog. VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere. IFR/LIFR ceilings will persist across southern sites through 15Z Thursday. After 15Z, ceilings across southern sites will begin to gradually improve to VFR. VFR ceilings will prevail across the area by 16Z Thursday. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 92 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 61 91 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 92 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 92 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 63 92 64 88 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 66 93 65 80 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 65 94 64 83 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.