textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a limited heat danger threat Sunday and Monday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Tonight through Monday night: The primary forecast concerns in the near term relate to storm and heat threats. A disturbed northwest flow pattern will support the initiation of storm clusters, and the potential for an organized convective system or two to track southeast to south across the forecast area. The primary concern for this scenario is Monday, but would not rule out an organized convective system reaching the area late Sunday. Instability will be quite high ahead of these systems, and deep layer shear should be just strong enough to support storm organization. Moreover, the shear/system relationship and high downdraft CAPE levels will favor intense convective outflow and a damaging wind threat. As of now, SPC has indicated a marginal severe weather risk for Monday, and it appears timing of greatest severe risk will coincide with peak heating hours. The caveat to this is that convection that develops Sunday could change the scenario timing some, so monitor for updates to the severe weather threat.

In addition to the severe weather concerns, high boundary layer moisture content fueled by the recent heavy rainfall and wet ground will combine with increasing summer like heat to raise heat indices to a limited danger threshold (peak values approaching 105), especially for Sunday and Monday. This should be a relatively short duration heat stress event as drier air and slightly cooler temperatures take over beyond Monday into Tuesday. /EC/

Tuesday through Next Weekend:

Mid to late next week: The deepening East Coast trough will ultimately nudge a backdoor cold front in from the northeast around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, with surface ridging encroaching across the area. This should temporarily reduce humidity and rain chances while moderating temps across a good portion of the area (higher confidence farther north and east) Wednesday into Thursday. This pattern change looks to be short lived, though, as a more humid airmass is set to return by next weekend. /DL/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

All TAF sites are reporting VFR ceilings as of 0526Z to start off the TAF period. VFR ceilings will prevail across the area through 09Z Sunday. After 09Z, several sites (HBG, PIB, MEI, and GTR) will see flying conditions drop down to IFR/LIFR conditions between 09Z/14Z. After 14Z, eastern and southern sites will begin to improve to MVFR/VFR. VFR conditions will prevail across the area by 16Z Sunday, but isolated to scattered diurnal convection Sunday afternoon could again result in a degradation of flight categories across multiple sites. Rain chances will clear up by Sunday evening with VFR conditions prevailing across the area. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 73 91 73 / 40 10 20 20 Meridian 91 71 92 71 / 30 10 20 30 Vicksburg 91 74 92 74 / 40 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 92 73 92 72 / 30 10 30 10 Natchez 92 74 93 74 / 20 20 10 10 Greenville 91 73 92 73 / 40 10 10 30 Greenwood 91 72 92 72 / 30 10 20 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.