textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible again tonight, especially in portions of south to southeast Mississippi.

- There is a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms in the US Highway 82 corridor rest of the afternoon.

- Chances for more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity increase Saturday through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Tonight through Saturday evening...

Tonight through Friday night: Southerly return flow will keep some fog development possible in the overnight period. 12Z HREF and REFS indicate some dense fog probs (20 to 30 percent) for areas south of Interstate 20 into the Highway 82 corridor. Persistence environment supports another round of fog, but confidence of areas of dense fog and headline advertisement is too low. Thus, went with a Limited HWO graphic for patchy dense fog south of Interstate 20. Seasonable warmth is anticipated through Saturday (highs and lows some 8F to 14F above). Ridge will build back in the wake into Friday, with decent probabilities (30 to 60 percent) of reaching or exceeding 90 degrees. Lows will be seasonably warm each night (62F to 68F).

Saturday through mid next week (Wednesday): Amplifying longwave synoptic trough and cold front will develop and develop a front moving southeast Friday night into early Saturday. The low pressure system at the surface and aloft will be well north, into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and Canada. Cold front will be stretched from the Red River Valley into the Ozarks and Mid West states around midnight Saturday and sinking southeast through the day. Rain and storm chances will not move in until mainly late afternoon northwest of the Natchez Trace, Natchez Trace corridor into late evening to just before midnight and mainly around or after midnight in the Interstate 59 to Highway 84 to 98 corridors. There will be enough convergence and deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) to bring in high rain and storm coverage (60 to 85 percent). However, line parallel flow will limit organization and majority of rain and some storms will be anafrontal in nature. This will bring beneficial rains, but less than an inch (0.4 to 0.9 inches). Unfortunately, is well below what is needed to make a significant improvement in the persistent drought. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms but confidence in severe storms remains on the low side.

Anomalous surface high (1025 to 1030mb) will drive in much cooler and dry weather across the area in the wake of the frontal passage. Temps will be seasonably cool into late weekend and early next week (i.e. lows in the mid to upper 40s Sunday night and low to mid 40s Monday night with highs generally in low to mid 70s through Tuesday). As the surface high generally migrates eastward, return flow of warmth and moisture will help highs moderate and rain chances increase into mid to late next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

All TAF sites are currently reporting VFR conditions as of 1718Z. VFR conditions will prevail across the area through 08Z. By 09Z, several southern sites (HBG, PIB, HEZ) will see ceilings drop down to IFR/LIFR. Low ceilings will prevail across southern TAF sites through 14Z. After 14Z, ceilings will start to improve to VFR. By 15Z Friday, multiple TAF sites will see VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail through Friday afternoon. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 88 63 83 / 0 0 0 30 Meridian 61 88 60 85 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 64 88 64 83 / 0 0 0 40 Hattiesburg 63 88 61 86 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 65 88 63 85 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 67 88 68 79 / 0 0 0 70 Greenwood 66 88 66 82 / 0 0 0 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.