textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northerly winds and much colder conditions today will follow an arctic cold front. - Dangerously cold temperatures are expected tonight into early tomorrow morning (Monday) with widespread wind chills into the 10 to 20 degree range and lows in the teens to lower 20s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

This week into early next weekend (Saturday)...

The main impactful weather is the arctic air/dangerous cold intrusion beginning today. The timeframe of the most dangerous cold will be late this evening to early Monday morning. Messaging looks on track and a cold weather advisory remains the utmost concern in the short term.

This morning through Monday:

Water vapor/RAP/upper air analysis this morning indicate ongoing amplification of the synoptic pattern, with an arctic/polar front driving into the area. There is strong pressure gradient, from around 1040mb in the mid to High Plains, with nearly 6-8mb gradient situated across the Gulf Coast states. The surface front is analyzed around the Natchez Trace corridor and continuing to swing southward into the northern Gulf by daybreak. Ongoing anafrontal rain showers will continue to sag southeast through the morning and move out around daybreak. There are some areas of some thunder at times during the period. Strong cold advection is building into the Delta, with nearly 15F difference in temps across the area (39F in Cleveland to 56F in Hattiesburg). Lows will be seasonably cold by daybreak, falling below hard freeze northwest of the Natchez Trace (24F to 32F), while above freezing to the southeast (34F to 46F). Cold air chasing precipitation increases confidence of no winter weather concerns.

1040 to 1043mb arctic airmass will dive down through the Mid West and into the Appalachians through early Monday morning. What a temperature swing it will be in 24 hours with highs today some 15F to 25F below normal (30F to 43F along and northwest of the Natchez Trace while struggling to reach freezing in the extreme northwest Delta in Bolivar, Sunflower and possibly Washington counties). With a gusty north wind this morning into the afternoon, wind chills will fall into the teens to mid 20s this morning. Afternoon wind chills struggle to reach freezing just southeast outside of the Delta while well below freezing, into the low to mid 20s, in the Delta. Strong gradient winds remain a concern today, with ongoing "Limited" in the HWO graphics valid (gusts of 30 to 35mph) and beginning early and ending early afternoon.

There won't be much moderation of the airmass as it moves over extensive snowpack well to the north so the region will feel the brunt of airmass. Lows will bottom out in the mid teens and low 20s (15F to 24F), with wind chills into the 10F to 20F range areawide. These cold temperatures pose a threat to people, pets, pipes and plants. Make sure to have areas and clothing that will keep you warm. As surface high builds east Monday night, light southerly winds will favor another night of efficient radiational cooling and sub-freezing lows (24F to 30F) and frost across the area.

Early week into next weekend (Tuesday-Saturday): Synoptic flow will gradually shift westerly through mid to late week in advance of a deepening spoke of vorticity diving into the Sierra Madres. As low-level ridge shifts east, warm advection and moderation will be the norm. There could be an opportunity for some light rain around mid week and scattered coverage of rain and storms Thursday through early Friday. We will probably need to monitor some storm potential with the front around Thursday, as there could be some mean deep layer shear (30 to 50kts) and subtle mid- level lapse rates for some stronger convection. Synoptic amplitude details are coming in alignment, so confidence is a touch improved from yesterday. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 601 AM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

A mix of VFR to IFR conditions to start the period with low stratus and FG. North winds will clear any FG, and low stratus will clear from north to south between 12Z-18Z. Expect those northerly winds to bring in substantial gusts and rapid temperature drops throughout the period. Winds should begin to relax once nightfall rolls around and mixing becomes less effecient. /OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 43 21 46 28 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 43 19 46 25 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 39 21 45 28 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 54 21 50 26 / 30 0 0 0 Natchez 44 21 48 28 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 33 20 40 28 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 36 18 43 27 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Monday for ARZ074-075.