textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable warmth will persist through the upcoming week.

- After a stretch of dry weather, chances for rain and some storms return late this week.

- Wet and stormy pattern next weekend, with continued signals of more impactful convective period and possible strong to severe storms into the following work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weak short wave will move across the area this morning into the afternoon hours. Any precipitation will remain well north of the area along a frontal boundary. Highs will climb into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees this afternoon. High pressure will strengthen over the area Monday into Tuesday, with overnight lows in the mid 50s./15/

This week into early next weekend (Saturday): Upper pattern will consist of strengthening ridge over the Gulf while quasi zonal westerly flow will set up into the latter half of the work week. Southerly return flow will become entrenched across the region on the western periphery of subtropical Atlantic surface high. This will lead to increasing heat and some gradual uptick in humidity into the mid to latter half of the week. Seasonably warm temps will be the story, as they creep up, highs some 12F to 20F above (upper 70s to low 80s early week while into the mid 80s by late week) while lows some 15F to 25F above by mid to late week (low to mid 50s early week before low to mid 60s into late week and early next weekend). Rain chances should hold off most of the week, with a return of deeper moisture (one inch to an inch and a half) into late week around Thursday to Friday. Some increased rain chances could deflect off to the north and coverage be a bit high on Friday (35 to 65 percent). However, the pattern becomes highly amplified into late week and next weekend in advance of a deepening cutoff cold core low over the Baja Peninsula and strengthening upper ridge over the western Atlantic into Gulf to Caribbean Sea. As a strong shortwave swings into east-central Canada, this will drive a front down into the area next weekend that will bring increased frontal convergence, deeper moist advection of PWs near an inch and a half and increasing lapse rates. This will set the stage for potential stormy and wet next weekend and the following week. There remains significant spread of synoptic evolution, with GFS cluster analysis leaning towards more cutoff low and less phased with jet energy to the north while Euro and Canadian cluster analysis indicate less cutoff and more phased solution, which would be a faster and more impactful solution into next week. Machine learning, AI and CIPS historical analog guidance suite still support a setup for strong to severe storms as early as next weekend and into the following week, but uncertainty in cutoff low development and stronger southeast ridge bring pause for confidence of more organized convection, storm mode and timing. Stay tuned as the pattern comes into agreement and fine details are ironed out. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 80 58 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 80 55 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 80 57 81 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 82 58 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 80 58 82 64 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 78 56 79 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 80 58 81 63 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.