textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms will move across the region late this evening into early Sunday morning. Storms may be severe across Central and South Mississippi and Northeast Louisiana. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Through Sunday: Main focus remains the potential for severe storms tonight but latest satellite imagery and surface observations showed patchy dense fog developing across our southern zones and spreading north toward our central zones. The dense fog development is expected to remain patchy but wl be monitored closely for a Dense Fog Advisory should the development become more extensive.

As for today, satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a potent shortwave trough shifting east of the Four Corners region. This shortwave will continue shifting east today closing off a low over the Southern plains while deepening a surface low as well. This low pressure system will become nearly stacked as it tracks across our CWA tonight and Sunday. As the system approaches our CWA today, moisture and wind shear will be on the increase. The deepening surface low will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across our CWA. At this time wind gusts look to remain below Wind Advisory criteria but model guidance remains in decent agreement that a strongly forced squall line will move across the southern half of our CWA tonight. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat with the line however a few brief tornadoes will also be possible. As compared to earlier outlooks, the "Slight" risk area (Level 2 out of 5) for severe storms has been expanded east to Forest county and include the area south of Interstate 20. The "Marginal" risk area (Level 1 out of 5) runs along and south of southern Morehouse Parish to northern Kemper County. The timing for the severe threat has sped up a bit and will generally move into our western zones by 10 PM and exit our eastern zones by 6 AM. Brief heavy downpours will also accompany the storms tonight but considering the antecedent condition of the soils and the progressive nature of the event, flash flooding is not a concern. Eventhough the severe storm threat will have ended, there is still some concern that a sting jet like feature tied to the surface low may develop into Sunday morning over the Delta and north of I-20. If this feature occurs, there could be gusts in excess of 40 mph.

The light rain will gradually taper off from the west Sunday as the upper level low shifts east of Mississippi but it will take until the evening before the precipitation ends over our eastern most zones. Despite the cooler temperatures associated with low pressure system moving across our CWA, temperatures will remain above normal Sunday. /22/

Next week...

In the wake of the low this weekend, weather will be quiet under reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80s by late week and lows in the 50s. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week ahead of our next shortwave and cold front, which will bring a return of rain chances by next weekend. Instability with this system looks questionable at this time, but there remains a bit of disagreement in the guidance and the overall wavy pattern bears watching./SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions wl prevail cntrl and south through 15Z before improving to VFR. VFR conditions along with a gusty wind around 20kts wl prevail this aftn but conditions wl deteriorate from the west after 00Z Sun as a low pressure system move across the region. Widespread RA along with TSRA cntrl and south is expected tonight. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 58 66 50 / 20 100 90 10 Meridian 74 57 70 50 / 10 90 100 20 Vicksburg 74 58 67 50 / 20 100 80 10 Hattiesburg 76 60 73 52 / 10 90 80 10 Natchez 74 58 70 50 / 20 100 60 0 Greenville 73 59 64 47 / 40 100 90 0 Greenwood 75 58 66 48 / 40 100 90 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.