textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat stress increases into the weekend and persists into mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Through mid next week (Wednesday)...

Today (Thursday) and Friday: RAP/water vapor analysis indicates stagnant upper pattern: remnant upper low losing influence/washing out over the Southeast states this morning and 596-597DM mean ridge aloft over the Desert Southwest. Heights are building with light and variable low level flow gradually shifting southerly through Friday. This locks in PWs generally around one inch (1.2 inches) and low humidity aloft (i.e. 700-300mb layer humidity in mid teens to low 20 percent range) in east to northeast MS while deeper moisture (1.6 to 1.8 inches) over central to southern MS and portions of northeast LA. Deep moisture will spread areawide into Friday. Increased warm advection (WAA) will moderate temperatures: highs becoming seasonably warm into Wednesday (95F to 97F) and seasonable lows (70F to 75F this morning and again tonight). Heat indices will continue to increase today in central to southwestern areas (heat indices in the 102F to 107F range this afternoon) and areas along and west of Interstate 55 Friday. Inherited HWO graphics for Limited and Elevated heat in southwest today seems reasonable. With moist advection picking up and lapse rates in northeast LA to south central to southwest MS and northeast LA, some diurnally induced showers and isolated storms may develop.

This weekend through mid next week (Saturday through next Wednesday): Synoptic pattern will shift to deepening mean ridge over the Four Corners while the southeast states caught in between ridge to the west and subtropical ridge off the Atlantic seaboard. Surface boundary layer moisture will increase/higher surface dewpoints this weekend (72F to 77F). Combined with seasonable warmth (highs 93F to 96F), heat stress will only spread and increase in area, continuing into early next week. HWO graphic looks good for the weekend and continued the threat into early next week (Tuesday). Further refinements and heat headlines will likely be needed.

Low level moist advection and increased deep moisture aloft will increase this the weekend (PWs in the 1.7 to 2.1 inch range late weekend into next week). Rain chances will mainly be summertime variety (diurnally induced) Thursday south of Interstate 20 and along and southeast of Natchez Trace into the weekend and spreading northwest into early next week. Coverage will be isolated to at times scattered coverage (20 to 40 percent range) with highest coverage in the Pine Belt, with potential sea breeze influence. This pattern does not favor noteworthy organized storm threat, but scattered stronger gusty storms with locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, especially late weekend through mid next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Variable winds are expected to start the period then shift to the south after 17-19Z. An isolated shower/storm will be possible near sites south of I-20 this afternoon. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 97 73 95 73 / 20 0 10 10 Meridian 95 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10 Vicksburg 95 73 94 73 / 30 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 96 73 95 73 / 30 10 20 10 Natchez 95 73 95 72 / 50 10 10 10 Greenville 96 74 95 74 / 10 0 30 10 Greenwood 96 73 95 73 / 0 0 20 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.