textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms continuing into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in low-lying or urban areas into early Wednesday morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 653 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Updated near-term forecast with latest guidance through the day tomorrow, but no significant changes were needed. POPs seem to be well timed out with current showers and storms before the cold front. A broken line of storms continues to move east across our forecast area, with chances for heavier rain and thunder decreasing after midnight as activity moves east of Interstate 55 and outruns instability. Some fog is possible in areas of the Pine Belt if/before rain arrives in the early morning hours. Will monitor trends for any widespread fog potential there. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Currently: light showers were noted on local radar along and west of the Mississippi river. This activity was ahead of a band of showers and thunderstorms that extended from eastern Arkansas back across northwest Louisiana and east over northeast Texas. This band of storms was nearly along a cold front emanating from a surface low over the central Plains. Latest satellite imagery/RAP showed the circulation around a closed low spinning over northeast Kansas and eastern Nebraska. This closed low will continue lifting to the northeast while taking the surface low with it. Thus the cold front will drag into the CWA later this afternoon with the band of storms preceding it. Nothing has changed in the previous thinking of the potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated severe storms mainly over our northwest and the previous forecast discussion follows. /22/

Tonight through Monday: A departing upper-level shortwave ridge is in the process of being replaced by a trough and deepening low pressure system making its way into the central CONUS. The low itself is expected to lift northeastward today from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing north and west of our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave energy pivoting overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at least modest height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without prolonged warm, moist advection in advance of this system's cold frontal passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500 J/kg over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop into discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon hours. The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments into the early morning hours and heavy rainfall rates. Weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an isolated flash flood threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the progressive movement of the front should limit an organized flooding threat. The Marginal severe storm risk remains in place for approximately the northwestern half of the area, and the "Limited" flash flood threat graphic continues to highlight about the northwestern third.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning. The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal and the growing season has ended already.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A broken line of showers and thunderstorms moving east across the forecast area will bring periods of reduced visibility, variable ceilings, and potentially gusty winds. Trends through 12Z however are for prevailing MVFR to IFR ceilings at most sites before westerly winds increase and bring drier air into the area. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 77 50 79 / 90 20 0 0 Meridian 65 79 49 79 / 20 50 0 0 Vicksburg 58 75 47 78 / 100 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 82 53 83 / 10 50 0 10 Natchez 60 76 50 79 / 100 10 0 0 Greenville 57 72 47 74 / 100 0 0 0 Greenwood 60 73 46 75 / 100 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.