textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress today will intensify across the area into this weekend through mid next week, with heat index values likely exceeding 105F degrees and eventually around 110F degrees.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1118 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Rest of today into tonight...

Morning analysis indicate a drier and warmer pattern expected for the rest of the afternoon. Morning 12Z upper air/RAP analysis indicate deepening mean mid-level ridging (591 to 593DM) centered over south central TX into the Mexican Plateau. This extends eastward into the Gulf coast states, leading building heights and subsidence gradually moving in. GOES East water vapor imagery indicate drier air aloft, with total precipitable water lower (around 1.5 to 1.7 inches), observed both via satellite imagery and 12Z regional upper air soundings. There could be just enough moisture to squeeze out a shower or rogue thunderstorm, but there is enough drying in the 850-700mb layers that will likely lead to more dry air entrainment and lowered confidence of any limited coverage. Inherited forecast remains dry and incoming CAMs do not support changes to that idea. Summertime seasonably warm and humid air will remain the highest concern, with highs peaking into the low to mid 90s (89F to 94F), combined high boundary layer dewpoints (72F to 76F). There could be some mixing but evapotranspiration will be a touch tougher due to very wet soils and resultant moist boundary/skin layer. Even if high temps have a little harder time to peak too much into the mid 90s, afternoon heat stress remains a concern. These should peak around 100 to 105F in central, south-central to southwest MS and northeast LA. Inherited HWO graphic for Dangerous Heat remains on track. Under the ridge at the surface and aloft tonight, lows will be seasonably warm (74F to 77F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

Friday through next Thursday...

Mean ridging at the surface and aloft will build in this weekend, keeping the dry weather pattern as the norm. Deepening ridge (594 to 596DM) and warm advection will drive summertime warmth and humidity back into the region. Highs will moderate (3F to 5F above this weekend and 4F to 8F above next week), generally low to mid 90s this weekend (90F to 95F) and mid to possibly upper 90s next Monday through next Tuesday (92F to 96F). With some drier air aloft through this period, some mixing could develop, with evapotranspiration likely remaining still tough with lingering very wet soils and resultant moist boundary/skin layer. Even if high temps struggle to peak much into the upper 90s (96F to 98F), afternoon dangerous heat and humidity remain a concern. Onset of the worst heat will be into next week as heat indices reach near or in excess of 105F degrees areawide to possibly exceeding 110F degrees at times. Inherited HWO graphics for areawide heat stress concerns remains valid and heat headlines will likely be needed during this stretch of dangerous heat. Lows remain seasonably warm during this time (low to mid 70s).

Next best chances of rain (25 to 65 percent) will not be until early to mid next week (next Tuesday through Thursday) as series of easterly shortwaves (strongest around Thursday) slide under the southern periphery of the ridge aloft to the northeast over the Appalachians. Highest coverage will be in central to southern areas, generally south of Interstate 20 into the Highway 84 corridor, with some isolated to scattered coverage up into the Highway 82 corridor. Some stronger storms cannot be ruled out during this time as seasonably warm highs into the mid to upper 90s, increased heat and humidity and light southeasterly flow (15 to 25kts) could lead to some scattered organized convection at times. The increased rain coverage will provide some relief from the heat and humidity, with highs a little more seasonable into the low 90s. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours through the 18Z TAF cycle, while the Pine Belt (PIB and HBG) could have brief drops to MVFR/IFR visibility/BR around daybreak (28/09-13Z Saturday) before improving to VFR. Southerly winds will be the norm the next 24 hours (sustained around 10 to 15mph and gusts up to 20 to 25mph at GLH and GWO, light this evening and a little less surface winds and gusts Saturday). /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 92 75 93 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 76 92 75 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 75 95 74 96 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 75 93 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 77 91 76 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 77 93 76 93 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.