textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue, with dangerous heat stress a concern through the midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Through late next week...

There is not much change in the overall expectations in the forecast and heat continues to be the primary concern heading into the weekend and into next week. The heat advisory was maintained with no changes.

Our area continues to be under the influence of a large upper ridge, which will tend to suppress coverage of convection into next week and redirect larger scale systems to the east. That said, moisture does remain sufficient for some isolated convection, so a popup shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out but most of the area should remain dry. Heat is expected to continue under west northwest flow which will reinforce an 850 thermal ridge over the area. Further, the low over the northeast Gulf may act to further reinforce ridging over the area this weekend and into next week as it slowly moves west southwest just offshore. Despite chances for tropical development at 60%, steering flow around the upper high will redirect this system away from our area. A heat advisory continues for a good portion of the area through Monday after which an upgrade to heat warning is likely for portions of the area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Will maintain heat messaging with an areawide "elevated" for now and will likely add corresponding "significant" heat stress Tuesday and Wednesday in future updates.

The trend has been increasingly towards peak heat for Wednesday due to compression and moisture pooling ahead of a frontal boundary poised to drag across the area. This frontal boundary also could stall in the vicinity of the Pine Belt by the middle of next week which reintroduces some rain chances for areas east of I-55. The aforementioned feature is moving into a very unstable moist airmass, so cannot rule out a strong or even severe storm in this regime areas east of I-55. Will continue to adjust PoP upwards to 15% in areas east of I-55 to at least mention an isolated thunderstorm in wx.

A spoke of jet energy within northern stream flow looks to further weaken the ridge by late next week, which will leave the door open to some sort of organized, likely easterly, MCS. This will have to be monitored in future updates. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Isolated SHRA or TS cannot be ruled out this afternoon, mainly over east MS, but chances remain too low to warrant inclusion in the forecast at any given TAF site. Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 96 76 97 76 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 97 75 97 76 / 20 20 20 10 Vicksburg 97 77 97 78 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 98 76 98 77 / 10 20 20 10 Natchez 97 75 98 76 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 98 77 98 78 / 10 10 10 0 Greenwood 98 75 99 76 / 0 0 20 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025-034>036- 040>043-047>050-053>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ008-009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ075.