textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase today into tomorrow, with heavier rainfall possible through the weekend.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A frontal boundary extending from the Texas Hill Country toward the Great Lakes is the focus for ongoing shower activity early this morning. Ascent on the flank of the subtropical jet stream will continue to support this activity today into tomorrow, while an approaching easterly wave is spreading a deeper surge of tropical moisture into the Gulf Coast region from the south. As the moisture spreads north, rain chances go up. Heaviest rain may still be closest to the coast. Regional average rainfall amounts through the weekend are expected to be around 0.75-1.0 inches in the Delta to around 2.0-3.0 inches in the Pine Belt. Upper-end rainfall amounts could be up to around 3 inches if training rainfall adds up for an area, with isolated amounts of 6 to 7 inches primarily farther south and east outside of our forecast area. With dry existing conditions in place, the threat for widespread flash flooding is low. Heavy rain over urban areas or other flood-prone areas would cause an isolated risk for any flooding.

By Monday, a surging polar cold front will sweep into the Mid- South and Gulf Coast. A breezy and cooling north wind will persist through the day Monday and chase the decreasing rain chances. The upper-level trough configuration won't fully clear rain chances from the Gulf Coast and Pine Belt, but the threat for heavy rain should end. A 1025mb surface high moving from the Canadian Prairies toward the Mid-Atlantic is around the 90th percentile in strength for this time of year. We won't receive the full force of this high, but cooler temps will still be felt. Low temperatures Monday night and onward look to range from the 50s to low 60s. These values would be about 5-15 degrees below normal for early October. The late week period is uncertain, with the pattern ultimately determining if dry air remains entrenched or if warm and moist air can lift back into the region. The official forecast leans into a gradual warming trend with low end POPs in the south. /NF/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Fog this morning has largely taken the form of very low stratus hovering just above the surface. Visibilities were increased in the TAF and low stratus is maintained through 14z at most sites. Isolated to scattered this showers will begin this afternoon for most of the area, while persisting at GLH and GWO through the period. Very low stratus is expected again tomorrow morning. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 70 88 69 / 20 20 70 70 Meridian 91 69 86 68 / 30 20 60 70 Vicksburg 93 69 87 68 / 20 20 60 70 Hattiesburg 91 69 85 69 / 70 20 90 80 Natchez 93 70 87 68 / 20 20 70 70 Greenville 91 68 86 67 / 40 20 50 50 Greenwood 93 68 88 67 / 20 20 50 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.