textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in low-lying or urban areas this evening into early Wednesday morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A departing upper-level shortwave ridge is in the process of being replaced by a trough and deepening low pressure system making its way into the central CONUS. The low itself is expected to lift northeastward today from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing north and west of our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave energy pivoting overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at least modest height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without prolonged warm, moist advection in advance of this system's cold frontal passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500 J/kg over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop into discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon hours. The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments into the early morning hours and heavy rainfall rates. Weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an isolated flash flood threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the progressive movement of the front should limit an organized flooding threat. The Marginal severe storm risk remains in place for approximately the northwestern half of the area, and the "Limited" flash flood threat graphic continues to highlight about the northwestern third.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning. The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal and the growing season has ended already. /NF/86/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Low stratus will result in intermittent MVFR/IFR conditions this morning before cloud bases lift to MVFR/VFR into the late morning and afternoon. Southeast winds increase ahead of a strong cold front after 17Z with gusts up to 20-25 KT with higher gusts and lowered VIS/CIG in the vicinity of thunderstorms. Winds will become northwesterly following the front. After 18Z SHRA/TSRA chances begin to increase from the northwest to southeast in the vicinity of the front. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 82 62 77 51 / 10 80 40 0 Meridian 80 63 79 50 / 20 70 70 0 Vicksburg 84 57 76 48 / 40 90 10 0 Hattiesburg 82 65 83 54 / 40 20 40 10 Natchez 84 60 76 50 / 40 100 30 0 Greenville 81 57 72 48 / 70 100 0 0 Greenwood 82 59 74 47 / 10 100 20 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.