textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat and humidity more typical of early summer can be expected along with increasing thunderstorm chances this week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This evening's scattered thunderstorms have just about all but died off. The rest of the night should remain dry across the forecast area. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Through the work week (Monday through Friday)...

Cold core low, developing over the Four Corners, will eject into the northern Plains to Great Lakes and into Canada and Hudson Bay region. Persistent seasonable warmth (4F to 8F above and highs in 86F to 91F) and moisture (forecasts of 1.5 to 2 inches and GOES East satellite derived PWs generally similar) will be the norm. Summertime pattern is on tap, with scattered rain and storm currently developing and later coverage (20 to 50 percent) and increased heat and humidity. With some steep lapse rates (vertical totals near 27C to 29C), some strong to isolated severe cannot be ruled out into early to mid week (as early as Monday but most likely Tuesday into Wednesday). There is an ongoing Marginal outlook for northwest to northern areas in the Hwy 82 corridor Tuesday afternoon to evening. There is support of diurnal microburst potential and pulse severe but deep flow/bulk shear will be light and variable and storm organization mostly driven by storms that are favorably oriented low level bulk shear.

As a stronger wave swings into the Great Lakes and surface low ejects into eastern Canada (995mb to 1000mb), front will shift south southeast towards the Gulf states. A southern stream shortwave will enhance upper diffluence, increasing ascent and moisture advection. This will drive higher coverage of rain and storms (45 to 90 percent Wednesday and 55 to 75 percent on Thursday).High temperatures will be seasonable, with lows less seasonable, falling from 8F to 12F above (upper 60s to low 70s west) to 4F to 8F above (mid to upper 60s). With less seasonable temperatures, humidity and lapse rates, some stronger storms are likely and marginally severe storms remain possible. Mid to deep layer bulk shear will remain sufficient (around 30kts), with low level shear around 15-25kts. This will keep potential marginally severe concerns through the remainder of the work week (Wednesday through Friday). Rain totals for the week will be around a couple of inches (1 to 3 inches), which will help lessen some long term drought concerns. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 805 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions to prevail at the start of the period as SHRA and TSRA coverage decreases through 02Z. Low stratus will bring a period of IFR to MVFR ceilings by 12Z, with greatest chances along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor. Additional SHRA or TSRA may develop in the region by 18Z Monday, but confidence of impacts at any particular TAF site were too low to include in TAFs at this time. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 88 72 88 / 10 20 10 50 Meridian 65 88 69 89 / 0 20 10 10 Vicksburg 71 89 73 89 / 10 30 20 40 Hattiesburg 67 88 71 89 / 0 30 0 10 Natchez 73 89 73 89 / 10 30 10 50 Greenville 72 90 73 90 / 20 10 20 50 Greenwood 72 89 73 90 / 10 10 20 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.