textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon into the evening along and south of I-20.

- Dangerous heat stress will persist across much of the area through Tuesday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1015 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Somewhat drier air has advanced into north and parts of east MS this morning thanks to a weak surface front that is now stalling as the upper trough supporting it pulls away. Ahead of this front, dewpoints are still well into the middle and upper 70s with PW in the 1.7-2.1 inch range. In addition, there is still increased flow in the upper levels with marginal deep layer shear over the southern half of the forecast area. DCAPE is once again quite high over the northern 2/3rd of the area and is forecast to increase further south through the day. In the area with greater overlap of high atmospheric moisture and high DCAPE, this places us in a similar regime as yesterday where wet microbursts could occur with little advanced notice. One difference today is CAM guidance is generally depicting less coverage of QPF given the influx of drier air. So this places some doubt on there being any rain at all in some areas, especially along I-20 west of Jackson. Further north, we have no PoPs in the forecast at all. To summarize all of this, there continues to be a marginal severe risk, but it is contingent on convective development which is increasingly uncertain with northward/westward extent. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat. Otherwise, heat stress continues to be a concern outside of any rain, with heat indices again expected to push into the 105-110F range across all but the northeastern quadrant of the area today. /DL/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Today into Tonight: A weak front is slowly pushing south across our region. There could be a repeat performance of yesterday in terms of microburst potential for locations mainly south of the I-20 corridor. The more confident axis for storm development is roughly in the Natchez-Hattiesburg corridor, but there is a threat for storms that exists up to about I-20. SPC's depiction of a marginal severe risk looks reasonable given how hot boundary layer conditions will be. Any storms that develop this afternoon shouldn't persist all that long into the evening with mostly quiet conditions to follow. Otherwise, the weak front will bring a brief spell of relatively drier air over parts of north MS and AR, potentially encroaching closer to the I-20 corridor during the day. While this could help to limit heat indices the farther north one goes in our area, it is still expected to be quite hot in these areas nevertheless. And further south, the humidity will remain; thus, another heat advisory is being maintained across much of the area.

Tuesday through the end of the week: The weak front will wash out, with low level moisture recovering again areawide Tuesday into Wednesday. Conditions will continue to be seasonably hot each day, and it's possible heat stress potential will be high enough for additional heat advisories in some areas, though forecast heat indices are looking more marginal beyond Tuesday than what has been experienced in recent days. Diurnal convection will remain possible, initially focused midweek mainly across south MS and LA, but expanding northward through the end of the week. /DL/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Aside from a few patchy areas of early morning fog, and the potential for brief TSRA impacts this aftn along/south of I-20, VFR conditions will prevail. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 99 74 96 73 / 20 20 10 0 Meridian 99 73 93 72 / 20 20 0 0 Vicksburg 98 74 97 73 / 20 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 98 74 94 73 / 30 40 30 10 Natchez 97 74 97 73 / 20 20 40 10 Greenville 101 73 100 75 / 0 0 10 0 Greenwood 100 73 97 73 / 0 0 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-034-035- 040>043-047>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.