textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Less humid conditions, with above normal highs and cool pleasant lows will exist during the week.

- There is a high chance (80%) for tropical development in southwest Gulf of America this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Tonight through Sunday...High pressure at the surface, centered over the Great Lakes region, will continue to settle into the forecast area. Through much of the forecast period, a drier airmass will likewise settle over the area. This'll result in less humid conditions with above normal high temperatures each afternoon and pleasantly cool low temperatures each morning through much of the week.

Rain chances look to begin increasing across the region over the weekend. The National Hurricane Center is currently monitoring an area of disorganized showers and storms associated with a trough over the far southwest Gulf of America (i.e. Invest 92L). Global models are in agreement that this area of convection will become better organized later this week, with NHC giving it an 80% chance of tropical cyclone development at the posting of this discussion.

We too are, and will continue to, monitor this area of convection for development this week. It's too early to determine what, if any, impacts this potential system will have on the gulf coast or our forecast area. Residents and visitors to the region should monitor the latest forecast for the most up-to-date information. Regardless of development, models do indicate deep tropical moisture lifting into the region over the weekend, again bringing good chances for rain to the CWA. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Due to clouds across the southeast half of the area, flight categories at area TAF sites are currently ranging between VFR/IFR categories. While there will be some improvement in ceilings through the afternoon, a VFR/MVFR mix expected by late afternoon. There will be further improvement tonight as sites return to VFR categories, but towards day break Tuesday, a return to a mix of VFR/IFR statuses is expected, as a result of low stratus affecting namely KHBG and KPIB. Winds this afternoon will be from the northeast between 5-10 knots with a few higher gusts possible. These will then become calm to the northeast between 3-5 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 65 87 63 88 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 64 86 61 87 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 63 88 62 90 / 10 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 66 86 64 88 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 65 88 64 89 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 60 87 61 89 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 60 89 60 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.