textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week.

- Chances for afternoon storms will increase, and the risk for dangerous heat will decrease late this week into the weekend.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 851 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

The thunderstorm activity has dissipated this evening, with just a few showers left in the south. Expect skies to clear overnight, with very warm overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An especially intense subtropical ridge axis will maintain it's position over our region through mid week. A hot low level thermal ridge axis (e.g., H850 T up to 24 deg C) will support high temperatures approaching 104 deg F in the ArkLaMiss Delta region, and the 100 to 103 deg F range elsewhere. A few record high temperatures will likely be broken, and heat indices will be hot enough to meet extreme heat warning criteria in spite of greater mixing. Have maintained the elevated to significant heat graphics for today through Wednesday and maintained an extreme heat warning for most of the area today, with the expectation that additional advisories/warnings will be needed. Additional heat related messaging will likely be needed beyond Wednesday.

Later this week and into the weekend, there continue to be indications that strong westerlies will increase over the northeast CONUS. Global models have trended more aggressive with their solutions of suppressing and weakening the ridge, and thus allowing for greater convective rainfall chances in our area. In addition, with the increased mid level flow and lapse rates being forecast, this could be a time to monitor for marginal to slight organized severe weather threats, especially per recent NCAR AI- NWP guidance in the Wed-Fri time frame.

It is also worth noting, the possibility for isolated strong storms over the next several days mainly during the afternoon into the evening as the combination of vertical totals 27+, lifted index of near -2C and dewpoints in the low 70s any storm that does manage to organize and break through the cap could overachieve previous forecasts warranting the issuance of future products. /EC/KP/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 103 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA wl affect the northern and eastern TAF sites this aftn but away from TSRA, VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 100 76 99 / 30 30 10 20 Meridian 75 100 74 98 / 40 40 20 30 Vicksburg 78 99 77 98 / 10 10 10 10 Hattiesburg 77 99 75 99 / 40 60 30 50 Natchez 77 100 76 99 / 10 10 0 10 Greenville 78 102 78 100 / 10 10 20 20 Greenwood 76 101 77 98 / 10 10 10 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.