textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue, with dangerous heat stress a concern through the midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

This afternoon through Sunday...

'HOT' would be the perfect word to describe the overall forecast period. Dangerous heat stress continues to be the main concern starting off the new work week and into next weekend. We went ahead and expanded the heat advisory to cover the rest of our CWA through 9pm this evening.

Afternoon guidance continues to show a large upper ridge over our forecast area. This ridge will help suppress coverage of convection across our CWA and keep weather conditions quiet across much of our area. With that in mind, there does remain some moisture which could lead to a few brief pop-up showers and storms across portions of east MS later this afternoon. A few lingering showers cannot be ruled out across portions of the Golden Triangle later this evening. Quiet conditions will prevail across the area with overnight lows dipping into the mid 70s.

Dangerous heat will continue across the area looking ahead into Monday as the upper ridge remains locked in place over the southeast CONUS. Afternoon highs are forecasted to peak in the mid to upper 90s. This combined with dewpoints in the 70s will cause heat index value readings to reach above 105 degrees across much of the area. For this reason, the Heat Advisory has been expanded to cover the rest of our forecast area including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA parishes. Furthermore, several areas along the Delta could see heat indices in excess of 110 degrees. A "Significant" risk for dangerous heat has been introduced for portions of the Delta. The heat advisory for Bolivar MS, Sunflower MS, Leflore MS, Washington MS, Humphreys MS, and Chicot AR has been upgraded to an extreme heat warning for Monday. The heat advisory/heat warning will likely be extended into Tuesday and again on Wednesday given increasing heat trends. There is a possibility that the heat warning could be expanded further south heading into Tuesday.

Wednesday will be the day for peak heating across much our forecast area. This is primarily due to compression and moisture pooling ahead of a frontal boundary that will track southwards across the area. This aforementioned feature will move into an unstable airmass, so a few strong to marginally isolated severe storms cannot be ruled out mainly for areas east of I-55 Wednesday and Thursday. A spoke of jet energy within northern stream flow looks to further weaken the ridge by late next week, which will leave the door open to some sort of organized, likely easterly, MCS. This will have to be monitored in future updates.

Regarding the tropics, the National Hurricane Center is currently tracking Tropical Depression Two as it continues to move north- northwest along the northern Gulf. The steering flow along the upper ridge will redirect this system away from our area. Although no tropical impacts are expected, several areas along and south of Hwy 84 could see locally heavy downpours with some storms as this system tracks along the Gulf. We will continue to monitor for any deviations in the track. /CR/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions prevail with few clouds and light and variable winds. There is a low chance (20%) for thunderstorms at eastern sites so PROB30 was included. Any storms that do develop should diminish later in the evening.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 97 77 97 76 / 10 10 10 0 Meridian 97 76 97 76 / 10 10 10 0 Vicksburg 97 78 98 79 / 10 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 98 77 97 78 / 20 10 30 0 Natchez 98 77 99 77 / 10 10 10 0 Greenville 98 78 99 79 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 98 76 99 77 / 20 10 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ026>033-036>066-072>074.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034-035.

LA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM this morning to 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.