textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system with locally heavy rain and some stronger thunderstorms remains a concern late Monday into Tuesday.

- Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving holiday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Through late week...

Through this weekend (Through Sunday): Synoptic analysis and water vapor imagery this morning indicate shortwave in the Mid MS Valley. There is some patchy fog Surface frontal zone is moving into the ArkLaTex, with drier conditions moving in the wake. Frontal convergence and some moisture (precipitable water in the 1.2 to 1.4 inch range) will help a few showers to potentially develop before daybreak, but otherwise drying trend through the afternoon into evening hours. PWs and dewpoints fall as the frontal passage moves through this afternoon through early tomorrow morning (PWs of 0.4 to 0.6 inches and dewpoints in the 52F to 58F range. Temperatures will be seasonably warm today, 11F to 16F today (highs of 70F to 82F) while relaxed on Sunday, 5-8F above (highs of 67F to 75F and lows 48F to 52F Saturday morning and 45F to 52F Sunday night). Record warm temperatures (highs) are possible in the Pine Belt today.

In the wake of the front, strong surface high will build across the Ozarks into the OH Valley by late Sunday. With drier air and shortwave ridging, dry and less seasonable warmth is expected tomorrow.

Next week (Monday-Friday): Strong cold core is progged to move across eastern CO and eject out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains in NE to KS in the Central Plains. Sharp jet energy (75-115kt jet in the 500mb to 300mb layers) will swing across the Plains and into the Mid West to Great Lakes by early week. This increased jet dynamics/ascent will develop a more potent surface 1004-1008mb low across the Central Plains and drive a stronger cold front late Monday night into Tuesday. Strong southwesterly shear (30- 55kts) will set up but remain line-parallel. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With southwesterly mean bulk shear and timing generally close to the diurnal minimum, this looks to be short duration potential. However, there are some lapse rates, favorable thermo (6C to 6.5C in mid levels and 700 J/kg to 1200 J/kg MLCAPE) and slower eastward progression there remains low end severe potential Monday night persisting into Tuesday afternoon. Amplitude differences of the closed low aloft/shortwave persist, with the Euro slightly digging a little more. This will affect how long rain chances persist another 24-36 hours. Rain totals remain sufficient, but slightly decreased to around 1.5 inches (locally higher in convection or training line-parallel storms). However, recent dryness and limited preceding rain accumulation Friday limits confidence and holding off in HWO. Synoptic discontinuity is decreasing, with Euro and GFS trending towards further north amplitude in northern Plains to Great Lakes, but intensity of closed low is question. This pattern favors continued southwesterly flow and rain chances through at least midnight Wednesday and latest around noon. Regardless, mean northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1033mb surface high and drier thermal profiles (PWs around quarter inch) favor dryness and seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into late this week on Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s are possible both Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a light frost possible Thursday night. /DC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low stratus and low visibility will once again be an issue for many sites, particularly in the east (HBG, PIB, MEI, GTR). Fog, drizzle and low stratus should dissipate around mid morning. Thereafter, VFR conditions should prevail with few clouds./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 79 51 70 50 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 79 50 71 47 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 78 51 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 83 53 76 49 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 80 50 72 52 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 74 50 68 50 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 76 50 70 50 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ027>033- 036>039-042>066-072>074.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ016- 023>026.

AR...None.