textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Through Thursday: Scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted on local radars developing over the CWA. The coverage of convection is expected to become numerous this afternoon before decreasing this evening. As compared to Tuesday's environment, lapse rates were lower and PWATs were higher. Although a strong storm or two will be possible, locally heavy rain will be more likely.

Early afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA between stout ridging to the east and a shortwave trough over the southern Plains. This was resulting in a deep southerly flow pumping warm moist Gulf air over our region. Daytime heating was leading to the increase in convection. The convection will again see a distinct diurnal trend but there will remain a chance of rain across the northwest portions of our CWA due to the proximity of a stalled frontal boundary just to the northwest. This will lead to an earlier start of rain chances Thursday as the activity is expected to spread east across the remainder of the CWA during the day. There was enough insolation this morning into the afternoon for temperatures to climb into the middle 80s which is close to normal. The earlier start to the rain development Thursday and associated cloud cover should hold temperatures several degrees cooler than normal. Low temperatures tonight will continue to be slightly warmer than normal. /22/

Friday through next week: The overall long term forecast remains unchanged. An active, highly unstable convective pattern is expected to persist across the ArkLaMiss region through the middle of next week. The synoptic setup will feature a quasi-omega blocking pattern that will establish itself over central CONUS later this week. A deepening longwave trough will take shape across the northeast and a closed low will hang across the west. The unstable southern stream will be cutoff over the Texas Panhandle Thursday. This will maintain continuous amounts of deep moisture flowing into the deep south, with impressive 2in+ PW values through the period. Consequently, this will result in continuous chances for widespread rain and thunderstorm coverage for the remainder of the workweek, with daily PoPs locked into the 55 to 90 percent range areawide.

Given the highly saturated antecedent conditions from recent heavy rainfall, especially across the south/southeastern portions of the CWA, flash flooding remains the primary hazard over the period. Continued MCV activity in the region will cause daily rainfall totals to vary significantly as well as the axis of the highest bands of precip. Expect the "Limited" threat for flash flooding to be maintained with "Elevated" threat areas highlighted daily and re- evaluated on a daily basis. While severe weather isnt currently outlooked, it isn't out of the question for a strong to sever storm to develop prompting product issuance.

A gradual shifting of the pattern is anticipated heading into the weekend and early next week. With the upper low lifting, low level flow will become westerly diverting portions of deepest Gulf moisture effectively limiting PoPs to an extent. Highs remain seasonably cool this week (low to upper 80s) while generally seasonably warm lows (upper 60s to low 70s). As for the extended period, a surface high looks to push south from the Great Lakes, but model consistency varies on how much rain relief it will provide dependent on how far south the associated front pushes. /KP/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA wee noted on radar developing over the region at 1730Z. Coverage of the TSRA is expected to become numerous through the aftn before dissipating this evening. Away from TSRA, VFR conditions wl prevail until after 08Z. After 08Z MVFR cigs wl begin developing and lower to IFR by 12Z. Cigs wl gradually improve to MVFR by 16Z. MVFR cigs wl prevail at most sites until the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 84 69 84 / 50 60 40 60 Meridian 69 85 69 84 / 30 60 40 70 Vicksburg 69 84 69 85 / 40 40 30 50 Hattiesburg 70 84 69 85 / 30 60 40 60 Natchez 70 84 70 86 / 40 60 20 50 Greenville 70 83 69 84 / 40 50 30 50 Greenwood 70 85 69 84 / 30 60 50 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.