textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no clear signal for rain chances until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Forecast remains on track...

Tonight and early morning may see some spots with low stratus and fog development but fewer spots than last night.

Overall, the transition away from summer is appearing in the synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader region, but split flow is noted in the guidance into next week. Southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will carry embedded shortwaves and add more flow and shear to the atmosphere. Shortwaves may bring showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to allow much. Either way, the conditions will be drier without concern for humidity causing dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge and a more full-latitude trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS. Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on the timing of this features is very low. Official guidance leans into a faster and more progressive low with a cold front and storms in our area by Wednesday. The ECMWF and other guidance continue to suggest a slower low cutting off around the Desert Southwest and continued warm advection across our forecast area and region (rain to the northwest still) through Wednesday. We will definitely have to monitor this potential system, as it marks a change from the stagnant summer pattern and a potentially more potent cool-season pattern. In addition, there will be significant subtropical moisture related to east Pacific tropical cyclone activity.

That being said, our best chance for the next rain and storms coming through is Wednesday afternoon with the aforementioned system. Light showers and fog/mist persisting overnight from Wednesday through the weekend; and continued diurnally driven storms developing in the afternoon. Rainfall does not currently look to be considerable with this system, so any flash flooding risks are close to nil. /OAJ/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR flight categories are forecast to prevail at area TAF sites during this 18Z forecast period. Winds this afternoon will have an easterly component, and range between 5-10 knots. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 88 63 91 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 62 87 62 89 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 64 89 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 63 89 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 65 91 65 94 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 64 90 64 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 61 89 61 91 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.