textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry and cool weather pattern will continue through Friday night.

- Rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

- We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over northwest portions of the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Today through Friday night: Overall, the weather pattern will be cold for the next week in our forecast area due to a dominant polar stream over central and eastern portions of the CONUS. In the near term, cold high pressure ridging southward through the lower MS Valley will bring continued dry conditions with below normal temperatures. A freeze is probable for most of the area tonight, and for eastern portions of the area Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday: A fast-moving shortwave trough will zip through the polar stream and bring a round of light to moderate rainfall, especially in the late Saturday to early Sunday time frame. Forecast confidence for limited impacts is high given the progressive nature of the system, modest moisture return, and limited low level instability. Morning guidance reinforces this idea and while some thunder could be possible, severe weather appears unlikely as dewpoints only manage to recover into the middle 50s at best for our area with moisture depth shallow. /86/

Sunday Night through Tuesday morning: Attention quickly turns back toward the west by Sunday evening as clouds will begin to thicken despite the recent progression of a potent cold front. Another shortwave/upper low embedded within the long wave upper troughing will be slowly moving east out of the southwestern states/northern Mexico and while winds below 850 mb will be northerly and cold, winds aloft will strengthen and become southwesterly, creating what to many likely resembles a pattern reminiscent of those that can create winter weather problems in our area. Fortunately, trends this morning in model guidance have backed off a bit on the idea of a meaningful zone of freezing rain in the northwest portions of the area. With trends suggesting the lower atmosphere could be a bit slower to moisten on Sunday night, precipitation likely doesn't begin reaching the ground in the areas near freezing until near sunrise or later Monday morning, suggesting that widespread precipitation will be confined to the warmer part of the day Monday. This likely means we see a plain, cold rain. There remains some lower end chance that should precipitation begin a bit earlier than expected, some light/trace icing could still be possible in the upper Delta before additional, heavier rains melt/wash away any traces. It's also possible that a few ice pellets/sleet pellets reach the ground Monday morning as the atmosphere moistens. These pellets will not be impactful nor hazardous, however, and will melt quickly as surface temperatures will be above freezing.

Rain is likely through the day Monday and will likely persist into the overnight period and for some of the area may not completely move east and away until afternoon Tuesday. For most, this activity will be a cold, soaking rain making for a dreary and wet day. The greater concern, however, will be to the northwest where deeper cold air attempts to move into the upper Delta before the rain fully moves out. These "cold air chasing the rain" scenarios locally rarely result in more than a brief, non-impactful changeover to wintry precipitation right as the precipitation ends. While this situation will need to be monitored as temperatures in that area will likely be near freezing around the time the precipitation wanes, for now it appears that those areas will also escape without impactful winter weather overall.

To break it down quantitatively, through Tuesday morning:

Near 100% chance of rain for the area.

Around a 40% chance for an unimpactful report of an ice pellet or two early Monday morning.

Around a 30% chance for isolated and unimpactful trace icing on elevated surfaces/vegetation in the far northwest.

Less than 10% chance for meaningful ice accumulation (>0.05") through Tuesday morning in the far northwest.

Tuesday night through Thursday:

The pattern will remain active with general troughing across the CONUS. As additional shortwaves rotate through the primary trough axis, we likely will see additional chances for rain. With the jet pattern so active, it is challenging even inside of a week at day 6/7 to speak with much precision, but it does appear likely at this point that the next rain chance should come amid somewhat milder temperatures around Thursday which would limit any wintry weather concerns, despite the continued cool weather overall. /86/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1138 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

VFR flight conditions with northerly winds near 5-10 kts are expected to prevail through the TAF period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 37 61 43 54 / 0 30 80 60 Meridian 33 60 45 55 / 0 10 60 70 Vicksburg 38 62 41 51 / 0 50 90 40 Hattiesburg 35 65 51 65 / 0 10 40 70 Natchez 39 66 44 55 / 0 30 90 50 Greenville 38 55 36 44 / 0 70 100 10 Greenwood 37 57 37 47 / 0 50 100 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.