textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Flooding remains likely across portions of the area this week, with flooding potential worsening Thursday into Thursday night.

- Isolated severe storms are possible over the area Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Through Wednesday: Local radars continued to show showers over east central Mississippi and along and south of Highway 84. Most of the very heavy rainfall so far today has remained just south of our CWA and this will be the case in the very near term. Our CWA remains at the base of a very broad upper level trough but also downstream of a potentially developing tropical cyclone over the southeast coast of Texas. Our airmass had a PWAT over two inches and with a surface ridge across the northern Gulf, the resulting southerly flow will maintain the high PWATs through the period. Latest guidance suggests the heaviest rainfall this evening will continue to slowly push south of our CWA. Wednesday, as the potential tropical cyclone tracks into Louisiana convection is expected to increase from the south. Although the additional rainfall Wednesday is expected to be light as compared to today, the Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect for the central and southern portions of our CWA through Thursday evening. /22/

Wednesday Night through Tuesday...

Wednesday night will remain quiet across much of our forecast area with lows in the low to mid 70s. Rain will begin to into the area from the south early Thursday morning. A tropical Gulf low will continue to track northeastward from Louisiana towards our forecast area heading into Thursday. As the tropical Gulf low pushes into our area by Thursday afternoon/Thursday evening, moisture and heavy rainfall will start to increase across our CWA thanks to reinforced shortwave ridging. Guidance continues to show this feature carrying a moist airmass with PWATs well over 2.5 inches. Although the probability of TC development for the southern Gulf remains at 60%, the primary threat of flash flooding remains unchanged, therefore hazard messaging remains consistent.

A few changes were made to the Flash Flood Watch and the watch has been extended further east to include portions of central MS and south MS. Morehouse LA and West Carroll LA were removed from the watch. Likewise, the Flash Flood Watch has also been extended through Thursday evening. Regarding the flood graphic for Thursday, the significant risk was trimmed to the north and portions of southeast AR and northeast LA have been downgraded to an "Elevated" risk for flash flooding. Likewise, the significant risk was expanded further southward to include much of the Pine Belt Region.

At this time, there still remains a low end risk for isolated severe storms associated with the tropical low for Thursday. Despite moist adiabatic lapse rates, low level shear may be enhanced by the low. Given the additional significant deep moisture from the Gulf, embedded low topped supercells cannot be ruled out, though the risk remains low. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard. A brief weak tornado cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will continue across our area heading into Friday as the boundary drags south across our CWA. Looking at the PWATs for Friday, guidance is showing that PWATs will be around 1.5-1.7 inches which is more seasonal for this time in June. This should help provide a brief "break" from the onslaught of moisture. As we head into the weekend, rain coverage looks to be more scattered. Additional rainfall amounts for Friday-Sunday are still looking to be in the 1 to 3 inch range with a focus for areas along and south of Hwy 84. Southwesterly flow will continue to reinforce rain chances through the weekend into early next week. Increased westerly/northwesterly flow by the middle next week may mean that relief may be on the way. /CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 655 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR/MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible at sites as RA/VCSH and low ceilings impact sites through 07Z before LIFR cigs develop through 14Z. Thereafter MVFR conditions will prevail. Winds will remain southerly, expect gusts of generally less than 25kts to develop by 15Z and persist through the end of the period./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 71 88 74 85 / 20 40 80 90 Meridian 70 88 74 83 / 30 50 80 100 Vicksburg 71 88 74 87 / 10 30 70 90 Hattiesburg 71 86 75 83 / 30 50 80 100 Natchez 72 88 75 87 / 10 50 90 90 Greenville 71 90 75 89 / 0 10 40 50 Greenwood 71 91 75 88 / 10 20 60 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for MSZ040>066-072>074.

LA...Flood Watch through Thursday evening for LAZ009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.