textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- An elevated threat for dangerous heat stress will continue through this evening with significant threat this weekend into early next week.

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect, and an Extreme Heat Warning will likely be needed for western and southern portions late weekend into early next week.

- Rain chances remain minimal through the weekend, with some isolated to scattered chances into next week. Some strong storms cannot be ruled out at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

Through next Thursday...

Dangerous heat will continue to worsen into the weekend. The strong subtropical ridge (596-598DM) persists this afternoon across the Gulf Coast region and remain in place through early next week. This will lead to increasingly warm thermal profiles and strong subsidence across the Gulf Coast region. Rain chances will remain squashed and shunted to the east-southeast (Pine Belt) through the weekend, with only limited coverage. The humidity has dropped some today with drier air aloft (GOES East PWs around 1.1 inches in southwest half of the area). This has helped mixing to be a little more efficient in some of those areas while further to the north-northeast, heat concerns. Inherited heat graphics were modified to single out the weekend into next week, where dangerous heat is more likely as the dry level air moves through/dissipates and less efficient mixing and higher heat stress will be a concern. The worst timeframe is late weekend into early next week (Sunday-Monday), where heat indices could exceed 110F. Added a Significant to the HWO graphics for the weekend into early next week, with some of the outlooked area needing Extreme heat Warning headlines. The focus remains enough out in time to hold off introducing just yet. The ongoing heat headlines continue through the overnight periods with limited relief at night. Stay cool and hydrated and check on vulnerable populations and never leave children or pets unattended in hot vehicles as these can become lethal, as quickly as a matter of minutes.

Some of the hottest days of the summer are expected, with highs likely exceeding the century mark during the worst heat risk concerns. Thermal profile climatology (21C to 25C at 850mb) indicate potential analogs into the low 100s (101F to 103F and median around 102F), with some higher values exceeding that. Even with that being said, some mixing could occur, which is typical in this environment to support exceeding 100F degrees. Record temperatures are likely during this timeframe into the weekend and early next week.

Rain and storm chances remain limited through the period, with only peripheral areas in southeast MS seeing scarce showers and storm coverage, mainly into early next week. Some relaxation of the stout ridge will occur into early to mid next week. In conjunction with increased deeper moisture, increased convergence from frontal zone sagging southward may cause some better rain coverage into early to mid next week. With dangerous heat, high humidity and steep lapse rates, will have to monitor robust storm potential as this type of thermal setup is typically supportive of robust diurnal microburst activity. Mostly dry conditions will persist most areas through the weekend, outside of the Pine Belt. As the ridge gradually breaks down into mid week, storm coverage will become scattered with highs and heat indices only a touch less oppressive. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 715 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 76 100 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 74 100 76 99 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 76 101 77 101 / 0 10 10 20 Natchez 75 101 76 100 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 76 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 74 100 76 101 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074-075.