textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are expected tonight/tomorrow morning.

- Much colder air moving in will bring a freeze to portions of the area Sunday night, and a widespread significant freeze Monday night.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 936 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Latest surface analysis had a weak cold front to our northwest that will continue to sag southeast and be nearly along the Natchez Trace by sunrise. A brief isolated light shower or two may develop along the cold front as it sags into our CWA. Fog development, including patchy dense fog was already being observed to our northwest along and ahead of the cold front. Patchy fog is anticipated over our whole CWA but our southeast is where the patchy dense fog development is expected through early morning. A Dense Fog Advisory may be needed by this morning if the dense fog development becomes more widespread. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Today through Tomorrow Morning...

This afternoon we have not quite seen the moisture advection needed to produced widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms. Instead our mid/low levels continue to be dry with most of the moisture being shunted off to our east.

For the short term the main meteorological item for concern will be dense fog developing overnight and lingering through the morning. Areas affected will be much reduced from the last couple of nights, mainly being relegated to the I-59 corridor and eastwards; with areas to the west having a slight chance for short-lived patchy fog. The fog forecast is determined by near term high-res guidance to be more transient, and conditions therefore should improve sooner. That being said the conditions are a bit more unorganized than what we saw last night and as such we may not see widespread/centralized areas of development so the likelihood for issuing a dense fog advisory tonight is lower.

Tomorrow...

There could be some remnant showers/storms associated with a strong polar front entering into the CWA to the far north tonight, which progresses through the area. The probability for both showers and attendant thunderstorms has greatly diminished and all guidance; with loss of the aforementioned moisture, but still lingers on the lower end. Forecast confidence remains lower than usual concerning whether any storms will be able to form in what should be an environment characterized by limited moisture and ascent. If moisture convergence can increase more than forecast, then getting a few strong to marginally severe storms is not out of the question, especially given the continued strong deep layer shear. This risk remains conditional and will continue to hold off on any formal messaging for Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday through Tuesday...

There continues to be very high confidence that impressively cold air will surge into the forecast area Sunday into Sunday night behind a strong cold front as a powerful and unusually cold upper level trough amplifies and digs southward through the MS Valley. One thing that we'll need to watch for a little more is the wind potential Sunday following the frontal passage. Strong mixing will take place as colder air aloft quickly overspreads the area and temperatures still manage to heat up a bit, especially in the late morning to early afternoon. Otherwise, NWP guidance remain fairly consistent and there haven't been significant changes concerning the expectation for a widespread freeze. Messaging remains a bit tricky for the overall cold air and freeze event given there will be freeze potential late Sunday night into early Monday morning with the initial cold advection, followed by the primary freeze/frost event Monday night into early Tue morning when surface high pressure becomes centered over the area. It would not be surprising to see many locations over central/eastern MS fall lower than forecast and reach the 20 to 23 degree range, which would be in record low territory.

It is important to note that the guidance that tends to handle the situation best, has been trending warmer for the overnight lows this weekend (through Sunday night/Monday morning) than is currently forecast. Taking that into account, the highway 82 corridor and northwards still remains at or below freezing for several hours in the warmer resolution which may trigger more aggressive messaging/advisories over the weekend (through Sunday night/Monday morning) as we move closer to post-frontal passage. There will be a cold weather graphic published shortly for Sunday night as temperatures will be a bit warmer but still below freezing.

Beyond Tuesday: Temperatures will moderate quickly as the upper trough and cold surface high shift east and allow for increased southerly wind. Dry weather with a return to above normal temperatures is the consensus in the global model guidance for now as we go into mid next week. /EC/OAJ/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1132 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

Areas of low stratus and fog have begun to develop late this evening, primarily impacting portions of south and east MS and separately AR and north MS. Categorical reductions will be possible at all sites, but especially sites in the aforementioned areas through around mid-morning. Then conditions will improve to VFR at most sites by mid/late morning. Scattered SHRA will be possible mainly Sat morning in the GTR area, with coverage decreasing by afternoon. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 60 80 53 62 / 0 20 20 0 Meridian 60 80 54 64 / 20 10 20 0 Vicksburg 60 81 53 63 / 10 10 10 0 Hattiesburg 61 83 58 69 / 10 0 20 0 Natchez 60 82 54 65 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 58 78 50 58 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 60 78 49 58 / 10 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.