textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the area as we finish up the week and go into early next week.

- There is an enhanced risk for severe weather for damaging wind gusts.

- Strong winds will also precede and follow the cold front during the Sunday through Monday time frame. - Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant freeze threat to much of the area Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 121 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Have opted to largely maintain the messaging highlighted in the previous discussion below. The main updates made this forecast issuance were an additional expansion to the significant freeze threat as confidence continues to increase with guidance trending even colder. Other hazards remain unchanged and will continue to be messaged in HWO. Additionally, snow flurries are possible north of I-20 on the back side of the cold front as cold air rushes in. These are not expected to be impactful and should be brief.

In the near term: High pressure will control our weather for much of the weekend, staying dry through early Sunday. The surface high will shift east of the area this morning and shift surface winds from the south. As a result, dewpoints will gradually recover into the upper 50s to near 60 by early Sunday. A stout upper trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the plains and its attendant surface cold front continues to be the focus for our next round of hazards.

Strong pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind threat both ahead of and in the wake of storms Sunday night. Given increased confidence for impacts both Sunday and Monday, have opted to message areawide limited threat for both days for wind in HWO. The strong forcing and shear, along with sufficient instability along the front will support a forced squall line Sunday night, and the severe weather risk has been upgraded to enhanced/severe by SPC given the continued increase in confidence. The greater severe threat area looks to be over our northwest where the combination of instability/forcing will be greatest, and where updraft intensity and low level environment seem strong enough in the guidance for some tornado potential, particularly with any segments orthogonal to the low level shear vector. Considering the forcing, instability need only be sufficient.

In the wake of the cold front, a polar surface high will usher in a much colder airmass, and will promote freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, and to a lesser extent, Wednesday morning. Confidence has increased in areawide impacts, especially considering the recent record warmth, with highs in the 80s also expected Sunday ahead of this freeze. Impacts to unprotected sensitive vegetation are likely, and have expanded the "significant" threat area in the GHWO. Temperatures will gradually warm mid to late next week with building heights over the region. Highs will rise back above seasonal norms with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday. A strong midlevel high over the desert southwest will keep northerly flow over our area which will maintain dry conditions. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 628 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR conditions prevail. Winds will pick up this afternoon out of the south around 10kts at most sites. Fog is possible tomorrow morning at HBG and PIB. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 56 82 38 / 0 0 0 100 Meridian 77 53 80 39 / 0 0 0 100 Vicksburg 77 56 83 38 / 0 0 10 90 Hattiesburg 79 56 83 45 / 0 0 10 100 Natchez 77 57 83 39 / 0 0 0 90 Greenville 75 56 80 35 / 0 0 40 90 Greenwood 78 57 82 36 / 0 0 20 100

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.