textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain is expected through tonight, and this will be followed by cold and dry conditions Tuesday and Tuesday night. - It will remain colder than normal through the remainder of the week with additional rain events Wednesday evening through early Saturday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 956 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Rest of this Afternoon...A disturbance embedded in west southwest flow aloft will begin lifting northeast through the Lower Mississippi River Valley today. As this happens, moisture currently in the form of widespread cloud cover across the region associated with it, will overspread the forecast area. As this moisture steadily overruns the drier air currently in place over the region, light rain will eventually begin falling and will likewise overspread the CWA during the course of the afternoon. Essentially this, along with continued cold air over region will yield a chilly wet afternoon across the forecast area as highs range from the upper 30s across the Delta to around 60 across the Pine Belt.

The overall forecast is in good shape. Other than a few minor adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on trends, no major changes will be made on this morning's update. /19/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Tonight through next weekend...

Tonight: Synoptic/water vapor analysis consist of quasi zonal flow migrating to southwesterly, with trough axis digging into the Four Corners this morning. At the surface, 1031-1034mb surface high is sprawled across the OH Valley, with northerly winds on the northern side of the front across the north-central Gulf. Lows will be seasonably cold tonight, some 5F to 8F along and southeast of the Natchez Trace while 9F to 12F below to the northwest. Strong spoke of energy/positive vorticity advection (PVA) will be swinging across the Red River Valley area into the Ozarks to Mid South into tonight, leading to widespread rain coverage and a sharp temperature gradient from northwest to southeast (27F to 32F northwest of the Natchez Trace while 33F to 43F to the southeast). As the strong ascent moves in, drier air will overtake the region, leading to isentropic subsidence and drying and rain chances decreasing from northwest to southeast starting around midnight and gone by daybreak. There shouldn't be enough overlap for concerns for light freezing rain. Based on recent convective allowing guidance (CAMs), including the HREF freezing rain accumulation model (FRAM), indicate a sharp cutoff in ice accumulation potential to the northwest of the region. Based on that, we are going to drop the HWO graphic and state graphic for this potential. Relevant portion of previous long term discussion is below. /DC/

Tuesday through next weekend...

Tuesday through Wednesday night: This period looks drier and quite cold, especially Tuesday when blustery north-northwest wind behind the departing system will make for very uncomfortable conditions in strong cold advection. Temperatures should struggle to rise much above 40 F Tuesday afternoon, and some locations may struggle to even reach 40 F along the Hwy 82 corridor. Clearing skies and diminishing wind under high pressure Tuesday night should allow temperatures to fall well into the 20s for most of the area, then modification of the airmass will allow temperatures to rebound a good bit by Wednesday afternoon under mostly sunny skies.

Thursday through Sunday: The next significant shortwave trough will most likely approach Thursday resulting in the development of another frontal wave with increased warm advection over the forecast area. Forecast confidence has increased some regarding the potential for a couple of rounds of moderate to locally rainfall in the Thu-Fri time frame. The storm system track should be suppressed to near the coast, and therefore any severe weather potential should be mostly south of the forecast area in the continued chilly airmass. On the northern side of the system, we'll need to monitor for additional light freezing rain threats due to the influx of fresh polar air. Otherwise, drier conditions are mostly likely to return for the weekend with seasonably cool temperatures. /EC/DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 AM CST Mon Dec 1 2025

Flight categories will gradually deteriorate at all area TAF sites through the afternoon and evening as both low stratus and eventually light rain set in across the region. Categories currently look to remain at mainly IFR levels tonight into Tuesday morning, with most sites recovering to at least MVFR status by 18Z Tuesday. Winds this afternoon will maintain an easterly component between 3-8 knots, but they'll become breezy from the northwest overnight into early Tuesday as a surface low pressure system develops and lifts northeast across the area. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 32 47 26 57 / 90 0 0 0 Meridian 35 47 24 56 / 100 10 0 0 Vicksburg 32 46 26 57 / 90 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 42 53 29 60 / 100 10 0 0 Natchez 32 47 27 59 / 100 0 0 0 Greenville 30 42 27 51 / 90 0 0 0 Greenwood 30 43 24 54 / 100 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.