textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated threat (Level 2 of 4) for flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. - Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing heat stress a concern, especially late week through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

This week into early next week...

Through midweek (Wednesday): Early this morning the region remains west of the upper low over central AL. Morning RAP/upper air and water vapor analysis indicates stout 598-600DM extending from the lee side of the Rockies, mid to high Plains into the Great Lakes wit. There is a stationary boundary right across the Hwy 82 corridor, with a decaying complex of showers and isolated storms in the Golden Triangle while a few showers developing along the MS River corridor. The upper low will migrate westward through the day. The combination of daytime heating, frontal/moisture convergence on the western side of upper low will spark additional coverage (scattered to numerous in the 50 to 90 percent range) mainly in central to east-northeast MS. With deep moisture profiles (PWs in the 2.1 to 2.3 inch range), especially closer to the developing upper low in central to east-northeast MS, light (up to 5kts) to variable backbuilding vectors, locally heavy downpours are again possible today. The inherited HWO graphic for flash flooding this afternoon to late evening is mostly good but adjusted westward into northeast LA and southeast AR, mainly north of I-20. The Slight risk area from WPC was adjusted westward and southward and this seemed good overall. REFS probs indicate low chances (30 percent) of exceeding 3-5 inches west of MS River and along and north of I-20, so pulled the Limited risk in HWO westward. There are good HREF probability match mean values of exceeding 3 inches (30 to 50 percent). Heavy downpours of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, in a short period of time is possible, which could lead to localized to areas of flash flood concerns. Added a more targeted Elevated risk area between I-20 and Hwy 82 where convective allowing models (CAMs) are hitting some 5-7 inch amounts and HREF LPMM support this idea. For now, holding off on any flood watch but some areas could see some high amounts in excess of 5 inches. The stationary front will remain while upper low will gradually propagate westward into Wednesday. With deep moisture and light flow, scattered to numerous rain and storms (30 to 60 percent) and locally heavy downpours continue to be a concern through midweek. While severe storms aren't forecast, some light westerly flow on the eastern periphery of the upper low could spark some robust storms/gusty winds through Wednesday afternoon. Increased rain and storm coverage and clouds will keep seasonable warmth in check, with below normal highs, some 4F to 10F degrees below (83F to 91F) and seasonable lows (69F to 73F). /DC/

Thursday into early next week (Monday): Ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances (less than 20 percent and likely on the periphery of the region until Sunday to Monday) across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the mid 90s next weekend. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period, some 3F to 6F above (73F to 76F). Increasing heat stress still looks to be a concern. HWO heat graphics will likely be needed, likely Friday through next Monday. With ongoing rain concerns and cooler temperatures, holding off introduction in HWO graphics for now but will likely be needed in subsequent forecast cycles. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Low ceilings with decrease visibility, at times, will result in MVFR/IFR flight conditions to begin the period. Showers/storms will return after 16Z, keeping MVFR to IFR conditions at affected sites. Elsewhere, flight conditions are expected to be VFR. Showers/storms are expected to end after 02-03Z Wednesday. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 86 70 88 71 / 80 60 40 10 Meridian 84 70 88 70 / 90 40 40 0 Vicksburg 87 70 89 71 / 50 40 30 0 Hattiesburg 86 71 90 72 / 60 30 10 0 Natchez 86 70 89 72 / 50 10 20 10 Greenville 88 71 87 71 / 70 60 60 0 Greenwood 87 70 88 71 / 90 60 60 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.