textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through early next week due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Rest of tonight...

Quiet evening with pleasant and cool night expected across the region. Water vapor/RAP analysis indicate ridge centered over the ArkLaTex to Gulf Coast, with surface high pressure centered over the northeast down into the Southeast. Broad subsidence and dry thermal profiles (i.e. GOES East total precipitable water and regional soundings around half inch) remain parked over the Gulf Coast region. Dry night with seasonable lows remain on tap (45F to 52F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Sprawling high pressure over our region is the primary driver of (no) weather heading into the new week. A highly amplified upper- level ridge axis extends along the Mississippi River this afternoon, while the axis of the surface high pressure system over the Northeast US extends along the Appalachians and over the Gulf Coast. Subsidence and continued dryness has allowed for temps today to warm into upper 70s and lower 80s with a light east wind. Have retained the "Elevated" fire danger graphic for the persistent low humidity and warm temperatures that have stressed and dried out vegetation transitioning out of the growing season. The ridge will be impressed upon by a shortwave trough to our northwest on Tuesday, but do not expect the ridge to be suppressed until mid to late week as western CONUS troughing deepens. Ridge will still be prominent over the southeastern CONUS, and the details of the pattern to our west will be harder to nail down this far out. The general idea in the guidance though is that at least some moist return flow and possible interaction with a shortwave/cold front would be centered around next weekend. Official forecast is an optimistic 15-25% chance for rain in the very final period of this forecast - next Saturday daytime. The synoptic pattern to our west though is highly uncertain with the injection of a strong jet streak into positively tilted trough over the West Coast. Even at 7 days out, guidance begins to diverge over how to resolve the feature as one or as distinct waves. Regardless of any rain chances, temperatures for the upcoming Halloween day/night may push 10 degrees warmer than normal. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat Oct 24 2026

VFR flight categories, with a few high cirrus, and light easterly winds will remain the norm through the 00Z TAF period. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 50 80 51 79 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 46 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 47 81 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 47 81 48 81 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 50 81 53 81 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 50 81 52 79 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 47 80 49 79 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.