textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated fire danger concerns will persist through early next week due to very dry ground conditions and low humidity each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

The forecast continues to be very straight-forward through the next week, and confidence is therefore high in the forecast details. Global model ensembles agree that an anomalously warm upper level ridge will slowly shift eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley region as we finish up the week and go into next week. This will lead to a continuation of dry weather with large diurnal temperature ranges approaching 40 deg F.

Of greatest importance, the continued drying of vegetation combined with exceptionally low daytime RH values will help to maintain an elevated fire danger threat. We will continue to message this through the graphics and fire danger statement. Wind should have less influence and be a smaller factor in determining the fire danger threat levels.

Otherwise, rainfall is not expected until the end of next week at the earliest, when the ridge shows signs of breaking down, and when the subtropical stream influence increases over our region. Even then, global ensembles show the greater rainfall signal centered more to our west, so confidence is not great for this dry spell to end anytime soon. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR flight categories will persist at area TAF sites over the next 24 hours. Winds will increase to between 5-8 knots from the east northeast by late morning. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 52 81 49 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 80 46 76 44 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 84 47 80 45 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 85 53 83 51 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 83 51 82 51 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 83 49 82 47 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.