textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday.

- A few strong storms can't be ruled out ahead of a cold front late Thursday afternoon into night.

- A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night before a more substantial warm-up takes place early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 918 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

This evening will start off with relatively quiet weather conditions with ongoing cloud cover across our forecast area. Scattered rain showers will begin increase from the north as southerly low level moisture flow from the Gulf increases across our CWA. Shower coverage will begin to increase over areas west of I-55 as we get closer to daybreak. Overnight lows will dip into the upper 30s to low 40s areawide. Updates are out. /CR/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Tonight through early next week:

Warm advection aloft is hastening the retreat of the cold/dry air mass in our region today, and surface conditions are responding with temperatures/dewpoints getting back to more typical values. Tonight we'll see a greater increase in low level moisture transport, and this will lead to scattered shower coverage over mainly the northwest half of the area as we approach daybreak. This warm advection regime should continue for much of Wednesday into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, an approaching cold front will help to focus deeper moisture, and increasing lift may help to initiate a few thunderstorms over the forecast area. There is an added complexity that reduces the forecast confidence concerning thunderstorm impacts. Guidance is showing strong agreement for a thunderstorm cluster to develop over the northern Gulf and move onshore in the central Gulf Coast region early Thursday, and this could disrupt the thermodynamic environment in our area by intercepting better low level moisture transport. It is unclear how this scenario will evolve in the details, and with SPC and ML/AI guidance maintaining better severe weather probs north of our forecast area, will continue to hold off on any formal messaging, especially given weak instability/lift.

Following the front, cooler temperatures will follow late Thursday night and persist through Friday/Friday night, but this will be a relatively quick shot of cool air with the colder anomalies passing well to our north in the progressive weather pattern. Thereafter a more substantial warm-up appears definite now given strong agreement among global model ensembles. In the upper levels it is about as warm of pattern as you will ever see in the south central CONUS as we lead up to Christmas Day. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 536 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

As of 2320Z, all TAF sites are under VFR ceilings to start off the period. VFR ceilings will prevail across all sites heading into the overnight period. A few southern sites (mainly PIB and HBG) will see conditions briefly drop down to MVFR status between 09Z/11Z Wednesday. VFR conditions will return across south MS after 12Z Wednesday. Scattered light SHRA will be possible across the north by 08Z before becoming widespread by Wednesday afternoon; however, the potential for flight impacts will be low. Scattered SHRA will continue by Wednesday evening with VFR conditions prevailing. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 42 65 53 71 / 0 20 30 80 Meridian 37 62 48 67 / 0 20 40 80 Vicksburg 42 64 53 71 / 10 30 10 80 Hattiesburg 41 67 53 73 / 0 20 50 70 Natchez 44 66 54 74 / 10 20 20 60 Greenville 40 57 51 66 / 40 30 20 90 Greenwood 42 61 51 66 / 30 30 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.