textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures will be near normal with a gradual warming trend into early next week.

- Conditions will be mostly dry across the forecast area with no clear signal for rain chances until the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

There were no significant changes in the forecast reasoning today. There may be some fog potential late tonight into early Friday morning, especially over northeast portions of the area where the most favorable conditions for cooling of the humid boundary layer will exist. Depending on how fog formation goes, there may be need for formal messaging with the graphics, but confidence was too low at this point.

Overall, the transition away from summer is appearing in the synoptic pattern taking shape over the next week. Upper-level ridging generally around the southern/central parts of the country will still keep temperatures near to above normal in the broader region, but split flow is noted in the guidance into next week. Southern jet stream around the periphery of the ridge will carry embedded shortwaves and add more flow and shear to the atmosphere. Shortwaves may bring showers or storms around Sunday/Monday, but the models disagree whether ridging or troughing will be more established to allow much. Either way, the conditions will be drier without concern for humidity causing dangerous heat stress.

By the time we get to the middle of next week, the ensemble of guidance shows a breakdown of the ridge and a more full-latitude trough swinging from the western CONUS toward the central CONUS. Being a bit early in the transitional time of year, confidence on the timing of this features is very low. Official guidance leans into a faster and more progressive low with a cold front and storms in our area by Wednesday. The ECMWF and other guidance continue to suggest a slower low cutting off around the Desert Southwest and continued warm advection across our forecast area and region (rain to the northwest still) through Wednesday. We will definitely have to monitor this potential system, as it marks a change from the stagnant summer pattern and a potentially more potent cool-season pattern. In addition, there will be significant subtropical moisture related to east Pacific tropical cyclone activity. /NF/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered high clouds will continue to stream over the area. There is a low chance (20%) for patchy fog in the northeast tomorrow morning. Given low confidence, included as a TEMPO group in the TAF at GWO, GTR, MEI, PIB. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 65 88 64 89 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 63 86 61 88 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 64 89 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 89 63 90 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 66 91 66 92 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 90 64 90 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 62 89 62 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.