textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected across at least portions of the forecast area through Friday.

- Isolated to scattered severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts remain possible Friday afternoon to evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Today and tonight...

Hot and humid conditions will continue across the area today as guidance continues to show the frontal boundary slowly sagging southwards the Gulf Coast. This will help focus scattered diurnally driven late afternoon/early evening showers and storms, especially for areas along and south of I-20. CAM guidance from early this morning is beginning to show scattered convection across southern portions of our CWA later this afternoon so went ahead and bumped up the PoPs to around 20-40% in order to better reflect the storm coverage with slightly higher PoPs (around 45%) across the Pine Belt. Although the overall organization of the storms will be pretty weak due to the lack of vertical shear, the combination of the hot, humid, and unstable boundary layer conditions and steep low lapse rates will support damaging microburst winds. At this time no changes have been made to the severe graphic for today and a "Marginal" risk (Level 1 out of 5) will continue to be advertised for areas along and south of I-20. The timing of these storms still looks to be between 3pm-9pm.

Dangerous heat will continue to persist across our forecast area today with afternoon highs in the upper 90s to low 100s and heat indices in the 105-110 degree range. The heat advisory remains in effect from 11 am to 8 pm this evening for portions of southeast Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and much of eastern Mississippi. Likewise, the extreme heat warning remains in effect from 11 am to 8 pm this evening for areas that could see heat index values up to 115 degrees. These areas include portions of northeast Louisiana, portions of central, south central, southwest, and west central Mississippi. /CR/

The forecast messaging for the extended forecast period remains the same with no major changes made. The frontal boundary will continue to push southward out of our CWA an towards the Gulf Coast heading into the weekend. Limited to elevated dangerous heat will occur across much of the area Saturday and Sunday. Because of this additional heat advisories/headlines will likely be needed these two days. Please refer to the previous forecast discussion down below for more information:

Weekend through early to mid next week: Global model guidance indicate that a northwest flow pattern will evolve and persist through the remainder of the forecast. A NW-SE oriented thermal gradient will support the greatest heat stress over southwest portions of the forecast area, but this doesn't appear it will be more than a limited to potentially elevated dangerous heat situation. This pattern would support an occasional MCS threat, but timing details are very uncertain, and overall rain chances are not great in the mean. Unfortunately for those needing rainfall, there are no strong signals for it at this point aside from a gradual uptick in rain chances as we go later into next week. /EC/CR/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 228 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA may affect GTR by 09Z before dissipating. Elsewhere VFR conditions wl prevail until isolated to scattered TSRA develop this aftn and begin affecting TAF sites cntrl and south after 20Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 99 73 99 74 / 20 0 0 10 Meridian 97 72 98 73 / 30 10 0 10 Vicksburg 100 73 99 73 / 10 10 0 10 Hattiesburg 98 73 98 73 / 50 30 0 0 Natchez 101 74 101 74 / 30 20 20 10 Greenville 100 73 100 73 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 97 71 98 71 / 0 0 0 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>039-044>046-050>052-056>058-065-066-073- 074.

Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.