textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue this week.

- Low potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall this weekend.

- Colder air will arrive late this weekend and persist through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Today through Thursday: Upper level ridging will persist this week and maintain a seasonably warm return flow pattern. Daytime temperatures have been lower than would normally be expected in this anomalously warm scenario due to considerable coverage of low stratus in the moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion. Most guidance remain bullish on additional stratus development through Thursday, and this will limit the potential for getting record highs it would seem. While unlikely, should skies clear out, afternoon temperatures could easily soar into the lower 80s, especially Thursday. Areas along highway 84 are likely to see this scenario while areas north of I-20 are more in question. EC/86

Friday into the next week: The primary feature of interest in the mid-range period continues to be the progress of a cold front likely on Saturday along the southern edge of influence of a shortwave trough moving eastward across the Middle Mississippi Valley. While deep layer shear will remain seasonably stout, the better upper level dynamics remain well north of the area and little in the way of cyclogenesis near the frontal boundary appears likely. The net result is a possibly prolonged period of modest lift across a frontal zone characterized by very anomalously moist boundary level conditions on the southern side (Td >64F)juxtaposed with substantially drier and cooler air to the north (Td <50F). This could promote sufficient instability and deep layer shear for an isolated stronger storm or two, possibly including some longer lived storms that could briefly reach severe limits. With little in the way of low level shear with surface winds remaining light and generally veered, and the absence of meaningful deep layer lift, the most likely scenario appears to feature scattered bouts of thunderstorms moving west to east along and near the boundary with a more substantial severe weather threat unlikely. The relatively slow movement of the boundary could result in locally heavy rainfall from storms that are briefly training at times. Rainfall totals could locally exceed 2 inches in a short period of time and for that reason some isolated flooding potential can not be ruled out. For now, these threats appear too localized and uncertain to depict with hazard graphics but it is likely that a small area with some risk for a few isolated strong/severe storms and/or at risk for localized flash flooding will be identified later this week.

The associated cold front pushes out and ushers in drier, colder air by late weekend into early next week. There are increasing chances for sub-freezing temperatures for much of the area, including chances for getting below 28 F, particularly for areas north of I- 20. After the fairly warm stretch that we've had recently, this could pose some ag-related threats. Temperatures look to threaten or dip below freezing on Monday and Tuesday mornings. Despite the nippy mornings, afternoon highs will still breech 50 F for the vast majority of folks each day and the duration of temperatures below freezing will likely be 6 or less hours each night, helping to moderate some of those ag-related concerns. Dangerous cold is not expected as temperatures look increasingly unlikely to fall below 20 F nor do wind chills appear to dip below 10 F with the coldest nights mostly the result of light winds/radiational cooling within a dry airmass as opposed to strong cold air advection and associated gusty winds. /86/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions will prevail. Prevailing winds from the south around 10kts. Gusts near 20kts in the Delta. Some MVFR visibility is possible at HBG and PIB this morning./SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 75 61 81 60 / 0 0 0 50 Meridian 75 60 81 62 / 0 10 10 60 Vicksburg 75 61 80 58 / 0 0 10 50 Hattiesburg 80 62 84 66 / 0 10 10 50 Natchez 78 62 82 62 / 0 0 10 40 Greenville 71 61 75 52 / 0 0 10 20 Greenwood 73 61 78 54 / 0 10 20 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.