textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a limited threat (level 1/4) for dangerous heat with heat index values peaking near 105 for the remainder of today and again Monday.

- Thunderstorms may bring severe weather threat (level 1/5) today through Tuesday with damaging winds being the primary concern during the afternoon and evening hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

This afternoon through tonight: There is a marginal risk for isolated severe storms roughly along a peak instability axis (mixed layer CAPE > 4000 j/kg) extending from southern AR through central to southeast MS. Disorganized convection is gradually increasing along this axis with continued heating of the very moist boundary layer, but conditions aloft (anticyclonic and subsident) associated with a subtropical stream ridge, are not supportive of this activity becoming more than isolated in coverage. Given the hot sfc conditions with high theta-e values leading to steep low level lapse rates and big overall CAPE, there is a conditional risk for a few pulse type severe storms to develop late this afternoon into early evening.

After a lull in the action overnight, we'll see the threats reemerge Monday afternoon into the evening. The difference tomorrow however is that storms will be more likely to organize into a convective system due to favorable shear/boundary interactions and high levels of instability and boundary layer moisture convergence. Once it becomes more obvious when/where the storm organization will occur, we'll most likely need to upgrade severe categories to slight (level 2/5) or perhaps even enhanced (level 3/5) in localized areas. As of now, uncertainty is too great to go more than marginal (level 1/5) per SPC. The threat for storms will continue into Tuesday over southern portions of the area where the coverage should be confined.

Otherwise, heat stress will continue to be a concern (limited threat - level 1/4) over mainly western/southern portions of the area, peaking Monday afternoon, and then like the storms, becoming more confined over southern portions of the area Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. /EC/

Tuesday night through Saturday: It is becoming more certain that a backdoor front will bring a few days of relief across most of our area from the increasing heat stress, with dewpoints dipping into the 50s and 60s and low temps deep into the 60s over most of the area Wednesday and Thursday. This will also curtail rain chances each day. Low level moisture will steadily begin to recover from west to east Friday into Saturday with a resurgence of 70s dewpoints and mainly diurnal convection by next weekend. /DL/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

VFR flight categories will continue to prevail at area TAF this evening, and through much of the overnight hours. Scattered low stratus and patchy shallow ground fog will again be possible around day break Monday. This could bring a one to three hour period of MVFR/IFR categories at sites where observed. By early afternoon, VFR flight categories will again prevail areawide. But isolated to scattered convection will begin breaking out across the area as daytime heating increases, with the potential for a southward diving complex of isolated severe storms affecting the area from mid-afternoon Monday into Monday evening. As a result, this could again bring a degradation of flight categories to area TAF sites if observed within a sites's respected aerodrome. Winds will generally subside to calm overnight, but increase to around 5- 10 knots from the west and northwest by late Monday morning, with gusty winds expected in and around any convection during the Monday afternoon/evening hours. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 93 73 89 / 20 30 40 30 Meridian 72 93 72 88 / 10 40 40 50 Vicksburg 75 93 74 90 / 20 10 20 20 Hattiesburg 74 93 73 91 / 20 40 20 60 Natchez 75 94 74 92 / 10 20 10 40 Greenville 74 93 73 88 / 10 10 50 10 Greenwood 73 93 72 88 / 10 20 70 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.