textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the area as we go into early next week.

- There is an enhanced risk for severe weather, especially for damaging winds.

- Strong winds will also precede and follow the cold front during the Sunday through Monday time frame. - Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant hard freeze threat to much of the area Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Updates today: No significant adjustments have been made to the severe weather messaging other than slight timing/risk adjustments. The most significant adjustments today were to 1) raise the wind threat level to elevated in the the ArkLaMiss Delta region for Sun-Mon, and to 2) include an extreme risk for the Mon Night freeze risk in northeast portions of the area due to a more significant threat to early season fruit crops.

In the near term: High pressure will keep the weather dry through tonight into Sunday but as it moves east, wind will begin to pick up from the south and bring an increase in boundary layer moisture. A stout upper trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the plains, and its attendant surface cold front continues to be the focus for our next round of hazards.

Concerning the wind threat: Strong pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind threat both ahead of and in the wake of storms Sunday night. After coordination with neighboring offices, we have opted to issue a wind advisory for the Delta region, where current probabilities for sustained wind > 25 mph and gusts > 40 mph have increased to well above 50%. It is possible we'll eventually need an expansion eastward for the Monday wind threat and will continue to assess this need.

Concerning the severe threat: The strong forcing and shear, along with sufficient instability along/just ahead of the front, will support a forced squall line racing across the area Sunday night. The enhanced severe risk was expanded slightly today. The greater severe threat area looks to be over our northwest where the combination of instability/forcing will be greatest, and where updraft intensity and low level environment seem strong enough in the guidance for some tornado potential, particularly with any segments orthogonal to the low level shear vector, and with discrete cellular development ahead of the main line, which seems most probable in northwest portions of our area. It is noteworthy that SPC increased tornado/hail probs in today's update, but the potential for areas of widespread damaging straight-line winds, is still the main concern.

Concerning the freeze threat: In the wake of the cold front, a polar surface high will usher in a much colder airmass, and will promote freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning, and to a lesser extent, Wednesday morning. Confidence has increased in areawide impacts, especially considering the recent record warmth, and with highs in the 80s also expected Sunday ahead of this freeze. Impacts to unprotected vegetation are expected, and with more low temperatures now forecast to fall into the low to mid 20s Tue morning, there will also be a significant threat to early season fruit crops. So have therefor added an extreme threat area in the GHWO to account for this. We may eventually need messaging for Tue night when the surface high will be in a more ideal position, but impacts should be less then with the thermal trough beginning to shift out of our region.

Thereafter, a significant warm-up is expected for mid to late next week with building heights over the region. Highs will rise back above seasonal norms with readings in the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday. A strong midlevel high over the desert southwest will keep northerly flow over our area which will maintain dry conditions. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 638 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

VFR flight conditions with southerly winds near 10 kts will prevail through the period. Fog development will be possible near HBG/PIB early Sunday morning. Winds will increase to 20kt with higher gusts throughout Sunday ahead of an incoming cold front. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 57 82 36 48 / 0 10 100 0 Meridian 54 80 37 49 / 0 0 100 10 Vicksburg 57 83 37 50 / 0 20 90 0 Hattiesburg 56 83 43 54 / 0 0 100 10 Natchez 58 83 38 51 / 0 10 90 0 Greenville 57 80 35 45 / 0 50 80 0 Greenwood 57 81 35 46 / 0 30 100 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for MSZ018- 019-025-034-035-040-041.

LA...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for ARZ074- 075.