textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail, along with a few locally heavy downpours, are possible this afternoon and evening. Winds may be gusty behind the storms tonight into early Thursday morning.

- A stronger cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, with potential for a freeze in some areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Through Tonight: It's an unseasonably warm and muggy morning with considerable low cloudiness ahead of an approaching storm system. A southern stream shortwave/cutoff low is shifting across the Southern Plains, resulting in scattered thunderstorm activity from Texas northward through western AR and MO. These storms are ongoing ahead of a cold front that extends southward from the Great Lakes through the Ozarks. As this front continues to advance southeastward through today, convection will gradually shift closer to our area. Storms may be subsevere initially from the morning instability minimum, but as instability increases through the day, storms are expected to gain strength and organization. CAM guidance has sped up slightly from previous runs, with storms potentially reaching ArkLaMiss Delta counties closer to midday.

Of greater interest will be the afternoon and evening hours when convection should begin to strengthen and surge more quickly in strengthening deep shear and a sufficiency of instability. Initially, storms are expected to be oriented mostly parallel to the deep shear, which may initially limit damaging wind potential to some extent. However, there is still guidance showing potential for a few discrete supercells to develop ahead of the line during the late afternoon and early evening. These would have potential for all modes of severe weather before gradually being absorbed by the line as it moves southeastward. One other thing to watch will be track of a mesolow eastward from Texas toward south MS and south LA. This could result in a faster eastward surge of convection along southern portions of the line, which could result in more favorable shear orientation for damaging wind gusts and a few QLCS tornadoes. With guidance trending slightly faster, storms are expected to depart our Pine Belt areas around or shortly after midnight.

Aside from the severe threat, average rainfall amounts around 1-2 inches are anticipated, but we could see locally higher amounts in a couple of corridors: one from north LA through the ArkLaMiss Delta area as the line of storms is initially slower while it reorganizes earlier in the day and another from south MS through east MS where there is potential for convective development ahead of the line and mergers between this convection and the line. Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in these areas. Additionally, a period of gusty wind is expected in the wake of the storms late this evening through early tomorrow morning. Strongest gusts are expected in the flatter Delta areas, where there could be scattered impacts, especially in areas with weakened trees.

Thursday through the weekend: Behind the front, a brief intrusion of cooler, more seasonable air will arrive by Thursday. A few areas may dip into the upper 30s Friday morning. However, this will be short lived as the surface ridge quickly shifts east of our area and southerly low level vectors return by Friday. High temps will return to the upper 70s and 80s this weekend.

Early next week: A deepening upper trough will bring another, stronger cold front through the area late Sunday into Monday. Showers will be possible ahead of the front, with a few storms possible given steep mid level lapse rates. For now, meager low level lapse rates appear likely to mitigate any severe threat. Behind this front, a bigger cool down is in the offing, with low temps in the 30s expected across much of the area Tuesday morning and a freeze possible in some areas. /DL/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1258 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

MVFR cigs were already being observed cntrl and south, and MVFR cigs wl develop over the north by 09Z. MVFR cigs wl prevail after 09Z areawide before improving by 18Z. A gusty s-sw wind of 20-25kts wl develop by 15Z and continue through 00Z ahead of a band of TSRA that wl move across the TAF sites nw-se from 22Z through the end of the TAF period. The TSRA wl take until 09Z Thu to shift se of the se TAF sites. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 45 62 39 / 50 100 10 0 Meridian 83 44 62 38 / 40 100 20 0 Vicksburg 83 43 61 39 / 70 90 0 0 Hattiesburg 86 52 66 40 / 40 100 20 0 Natchez 84 45 63 40 / 60 90 10 0 Greenville 79 42 58 40 / 90 90 0 0 Greenwood 83 42 62 40 / 80 90 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.