textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog will impact southern portions of Mississippi Thursday morning. - Chances for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase as we approach the weekend.

- A more significant storm system could impact our area early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Near-term weather elements were updated with latest guidance through tomorrow afternoon, but no major adjustments were needed with this cycle. The main concern through this time is still the potential for dense fog in especially southeastern Mississippi tomorrow morning. Patchy fog with this main area of development could extend up to around Interstate 20 around daybreak, but confidence in dense fog was too low to expand the Dense Fog Advisory. A separate area of patchy fog could develop in northeast Mississippi, but again, widespread dense fog development is not expected there at this time. Any fog should mix out by around 9 AM Thursday. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 122 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Through Thursday:

Mid afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a closed low over southern California and ridging from the Gulf across our CWA and over the mid Mississippi valley. A disturbance rounding the base of the closed low will track northeast across the southern Plains tonight and then over the upper level ridge Thursday. Surface ridging across the Gulf coast and ridging aloft will try to hang tough over our CWA but model consensus suggests low rain chances will return to our northwest most zones by sunrise and then continue along and north of Highway 82 Thursday as the disturbance moves east and well to our north. In the south with continued WAA maintaining the moist airmass in place, dense fog will likely redevelop by morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for our southeast zones where confidence is highest in a greater areal coverage of dense fog but patchy dense fog will also be possible over east Mississippi as well. Temperatures will continue well above normal through the period. /22/

Thursday night through Tuesday:

Strong riding over the central Gulf will be suppressed somewhat as a filling shortwave trough ejects across the Southern US Friday. In advance of the wave, a few rain showers can't be ruled out around the periphery of the ridge Thursday night. A low pressure system associated with the approaching disturbance will push a cold front through the region late Thursday night through Friday. Modest instability and wind shear may exist in the warm sector out ahead of the cold front, and some stronger thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out in the air mass. Forcing with the front will be decreasing, and resulting low-level flow will be more boundary-parallel. Therefore there is no widespread threat for severe thunderstorms expected at this time. Showers or a few storms may linger in our area on Saturday as the front stalls out.

Sunday through Tuesday:

Flow aloft will amplify for early next week as another low digs over the Desert Southwest and slowly lifts eastward. Moisture recovery will begin along the TX Gulf Coast during this early week time frame, and by Tuesday, the low could be sliding across the South with additional chances for showers and thunderstorms in the region. It's too far out to have certainty with this type of system in this kind of weather pattern, but that will be our next target to monitor for any impacts in our region as the Thanksgiving holiday time frame approaches. /KP/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 625 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

VFR conditions to start the TAF period at all sites. Then by around 10Z Thursday, chances for dense fog and IFR ceilings increase especially near KHBG, KPIB, and KHEZ. Farther north, patchy BR and scattered low stratus cannot be ruled out in the 10Z-14Z time frame. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 81 63 79 / 0 0 40 80 Meridian 59 81 60 77 / 0 0 20 80 Vicksburg 63 81 64 80 / 0 0 40 70 Hattiesburg 60 82 63 80 / 0 0 20 70 Natchez 61 80 64 82 / 0 10 40 70 Greenville 65 80 64 78 / 10 20 50 70 Greenwood 64 80 64 77 / 10 10 40 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ062>066- 072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.