textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring rain chances tonight and this will be followed by dry and seasonably cold air that persists through early this week.

- After a warm-up during the mid week, we'll see significantly colder temperatures return Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Tonight through next week: A broad longwave trough over the central/eastern CONUS will continue to be the primary driver for weather in our region, resulting in mostly dry weather with seasonable temperatures. A weak shortwave trough and associated cold front crossing the region tonight will bring a quick round of light to moderate shower activity with total rainfall amounts under a half inch on average.

Behind the departing system, strong cold advection is expected, resulting in seasonably cold conditions going from Monday into Tuesday. Low stratus, which was a forecasting challenge in the last cold advection event, will once again be a challenge in the next couple of days as the low level thermal trough lingers over the area. Forecast confidence in the temperature ranges is lower than usual because of this, and the forecast tends to reflect a scenario with less stratus. So don't be surprised if is cloudier than expected with smaller daily ranges. Going into mid week, the thermal trough will exit our region, and this will allow temperatures to warm to significantly above normal levels for the first time since before Thanksgiving.

Friday into next weekend: We're monitoring the potential for a more significant surge of cold air by the end of next week. Global models continue to suggest there will be a stronger surface high that develops and surges southward through the Plains and MS Valley, but with ensemble mean cool anomalies being centered to our north east, very subtle shifts in the geometry of longwave trough pattern could bring significant temperature differences, so forecast confidence in how impactful this may be is on the low side. /EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1116 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

Low stratus and light to moderate rain over parts of the forecast are are causing widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings with variable visibility. Winds will be from the north through the period. Expect improving ceilings between 18Z to 21Z Monday as stratus deck thins and mixes out. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 43 53 31 57 / 90 0 0 0 Meridian 41 54 29 56 / 90 0 0 0 Vicksburg 41 52 32 57 / 80 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 47 58 33 60 / 90 0 0 0 Natchez 43 53 32 59 / 80 0 0 0 Greenville 39 47 31 53 / 80 0 0 0 Greenwood 40 50 30 55 / 80 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.