textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The threat for severe storms will diminish as we go through the remainder of the afternoon.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flash flooding will peak Sunday into Monday. - We will be monitoring the potential for additional heavy rainfall and flash flooding next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 957 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

This afternoons storms have progressed through the area and are no longer impacting our CWA, with only remnant showery activity remaining across the southwest portions of the CWA. Overnight, a lifting north from the Gulf Coast will promote increasing showery and thunderstorm activity heading into Sunday morning./KP/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Concerning flooding threats this weekend through next week:

This pattern has the potential to result in significant flooding at some point due to both favorable antecedent conditions and synoptic scale weather pattern. After several days of widespread rainfall with locally heavy amounts, much of the area has soaked grounds, and additional widespread rainfall will raise concerns for flash flooding.

In the near term, the the primary FF threat is associated with the MCV currently crossing the forecast area. Thus far it has been progressive enough to limit the threat, with the exception of southeast Arkansas where the MCV commahead is having more influence. Will continue to monitor for cell mergers producing localized intense rainfall rates downstream of the system as we go through the remainder of the afternoon. A recent trend in the near term scenario has been for deeper moisture transport to be intercepted by coastal convection in the wake of the MCV, and this should help to limit overnight flood threats.

For Sunday into Monday, this will be the primary time for the greatest flash flooding threat as an upper level trough in the subtropical stream closes off and parks over eastern Texas. As this happens, we'll see persistent and very moist southerly flow ahead of the upper low increase over the forecast area. Cyclonic flow aloft will help to enhance moisture convergence and ascent, but there will be unknowns in the mesoscale that ultimately determine where more focused areas of training deep convection may set up. The best guess is that heavier rainfall will focus along/south of I-20 corridor, but determining greater flash flood threats will be driven by antecedent conditions as well, with western/southern areas having received greater rainfall to this point. For now have opted to increase the area of the elevated threat area with the expectation that a flash flood watch will be needed at some point soon. Depending on how things evolve, we may need to consider a localized significant threat area as well in the HWO graphics.

Going beyond Monday, there will be a temporary lull in the heavy rainfall pattern as the upper low is forecast to pull away early in the work week. Additional shortwave trough energy dropping into the western longwave CONUS trough will eventually reset the pattern, and this promises to bring additional heavy rain threats as we go into mid/late week. This of course could be a greater concern depending on how much falls the remainder of the weekend. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 653 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites until 08Z. BR & RA will be possible after 08Z causing MVFR/IFR cat. and lowering further to IFR/LIFR after 12Z. Thereafter, -RA/RA will prevail across TAF sites through the end of the period./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 81 68 80 / 50 80 90 90 Meridian 67 83 68 80 / 40 80 70 90 Vicksburg 68 79 68 80 / 50 70 70 90 Hattiesburg 69 82 69 80 / 50 90 80 100 Natchez 68 78 68 81 / 70 80 70 80 Greenville 68 80 67 79 / 40 50 80 80 Greenwood 67 81 68 80 / 50 60 70 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.