textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected through at least the middle of this week. Daily max heat index values will be near 105 to 115 degrees.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms begin to return mid to late week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 712 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Oppressive heatwave continues into today. Deep ridge axis remains centered across the ArkLaTex to Gulf Coast region, keeping anomalous warmth but some deeper moisture (1.6 to 2 inches in GOES East satellite derived precipitable water) has built in compared to past few days. A few diurnal showers and storms have developed in the Pine Belt to Hwy 84 corridors, while a few showers have sneaked in under the ridge. High temperatures have eclipsed the century mark at numerous locations, with some in the 101F to 103F range (Greenville-GLH at 103F, Jackson-JAN at 102F and several others at 101F). Dangerous heat persists, with the inherited heat headlines/warnings valid and persisting into the night. Dewpoints have only mixed into the upper 60s at some sites (68F to 70F), while hovering in the low to mid 70s (72F to 75F) at other sites. Heat indices have peaked well into extreme heat concerns (108F to 115F). Overnight relief is unlikely as lows again struggle to fall below 80F. Several record highs were tied (Greenville-GLH at 103F and Tallulah/Vicksburg-TVR at 101F). Record warm lows were likely observed (Greenville-GLH at 79F, Tallulah/Vicksburg-TVR at 75F and Hattiesburg-HBG at 80F). Additional warm low records remain likely overnight. Updates were sent out earlier. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The very strong subtropical ridge will continue over the area for the next couple of days.. Have expanded the heat warning to the remainder of the eastern portions of the area, where heat indices will climb to 110 or above. The extreme heat will likely continue into Tuesday across most of the area./15/

An especially intense subtropical ridge axis will maintain it's position over our region for the next few days. A hot low level thermal ridge axis (e.g., H850 near 24 deg C) will support high temperatures approaching 104 deg F in the ArkLaMiss Delta region, and the 100 to 103 deg F range elsewhere. A few record high temperatures will likely be broken, and heat indices will be hot enough to meet extreme heat warning criteria, in spite of greater mixing. Have maintained the elevated to significant heat graphic and upgraded to an extreme heat warning for western portions of the area accordingly. Later this week and into next weekend, there are indications that strong westerlies will increase over the northeast CONUS. This will help to suppress and weaken the ridge, and allow for greater convective rainfall chances in our area. This could be a time to monitor for marginal severe weather threats. /EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across all TAF sites through the overnight period. Surface winds will remain light and southwesterly overnight and westerly on Monday. Cannot rule out additional SHRA and TSRA coverage in the Pine Belt into the afternoon hours on Monday (after 17/19Z), but confidence is too low to introduce in the 06Z TAF cycle. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 99 77 100 77 / 10 10 10 10 Meridian 99 76 99 75 / 10 10 10 10 Vicksburg 98 77 99 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 99 77 99 76 / 20 10 30 10 Natchez 99 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 101 77 101 78 / 10 10 0 10 Greenwood 99 76 99 76 / 10 10 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007-015-023-024.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ008-009- 016-025-026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074.

Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.