textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat stress is likely Friday through Sunday.

- Showers and storms will increase across the area early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 845 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Dry air is observed this morning on 12z JAN sounding and on WV satellite. High pressure should continue to reinforce this dry air. Dewpoints this morning continue to run higher than guidance. These were nudged upward to reflect this. Despite the high dewpoints this morning, conditions favor deeper mixing this afternoon, so dewpoints should drop to the upper 60s to lower 70s. As is the case with deeper mixing, this will favor a higher temperature this afternoon, so expect highs in the low to mid 90s. /SAS/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Through tonight: hotter with very little chance for rain through the period. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a 593dam high centered just to our southwest. This feature will remain in place through tonight but weaken slightly. Latest surface analysis had a >1016mb ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. This feature will shift south with its axis becoming nearly along the Gulf coast by sunrise Thursday. The resulting low level southerly flow will maintain our warm moist airmass. There will be plenty of insolation today but, the ridging aloft should hinder convection and limit rain chances. As temperatures climb into the 90s this afternoon peak heat index values will be in the upper 90s at most locations but, in our west along the Mississippi river peak heat index values will be in the lower 100s again. Little change from the past several nights is expected tonight as temperatures bottom out above normal again and patchy light fog will be possible toward sunrise in the southeast. /22/

Thursday Night through Midweek...

Rain chances will start to increase heading into Friday (though most areas likely remain dry) as a cold front approaches the area, likely stalling along or near the highway 82 corridor. Rain chances with this activity will likely be more isolated than scattered most afternoons with only a gradual increase in rain chances by Sunday. High temperatures will remain in the middle 90s F through the weekend with humidity slowly ticking up as dewpoints rise into the middle 70s F during peak daytime heating. This suggest dangerous heat will be the primary focus for hazards through this weekend. Heat indices will likely peak around 105 F for most areas, slightly below for northeastern Mississippi. For this reason, a heat outlook (Limited) was prepared for much of the area valid each afternoon/early evening Friday through Sunday.

We likely won't see much relief in terms of humidity until perhaps mid-week next week when a frontal boundary could manage to sneak down toward the coast. It will bring with it an increase in showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms perhaps by Monday afternoon into Tuesday with improving conditions by the end of the period should it manage to slide south of the area. /86/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

IFR/LIFR conditions wl continue in the SE until after 1330Z before improving. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail areawide through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 73 94 75 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 94 73 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 75 94 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 71 94 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 94 74 95 75 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 76 95 77 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 94 75 95 76 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.