textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat stress will continue to be a concern over much of the area today.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1032 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Heat continues today with areawide elevated risk and accompanying heat advisory for heat indices in the 105-110 range. A rash of scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon, with focus in the eastern half of the area. Morning sounding/meso analysis indicate a moisture axis associated with a stalled surface boundary draped across the area from NW-SE. Lapse rates are weaker due to the deep moisture and should limit severe storms this afternoon. That said, such deep moisture leaves the door open for some heavy downpours. /SAS/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Today through next Thursday...In the near-term, the concern for dangerous heat stress remains the primary story. Highs this afternoon will again hover in the mid to upper 90s. This, coupled with dew points in the mid to upper 70s, will again yield afternoon heat index values generally in the 105F-110F range. Therefore, a "Heat Advisory" will be in effect today from 10 AM - 7 PM. Better chances for convection will exist this afternoon, mainly across areas along and east of the Interstate 55 corridor.

Troughing increases across the region over the weekend. A frontal boundary will slip into the forecast area Saturday, aiding in a better development of mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms across the CWA. This, cloud cover associated with said convection, and slightly drier air filtering into the region in the front's wake, will provide some temporary relief from the oppressive heat that's gripped the region for sometime. A storm or two could become intense enough to produce gusty winds, particularly Saturday. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours can be expected with all convection.

Unfortunately, this'll be short-lived as we move into and through the new work week. High pressure aloft centered near the Four Corners region, will begin increasing its presence across the Lower Mississippi River Valley during this time. High temperatures will again begin climbing back into the mid and upper 90s areawide by mid and late week. Moisture levels will also begin creeping back up, possibly again leading to another bout of dangerous heat stress as we end the forecast period. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 616 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout a majority of the forecast period at all TAF sites. Some MVFR ceilings will be possible at sites along and north of I-20 where some low stratus has developed. This will begin eroding after sunrise this morning. SHRA/TSRA will be possible again this afternoon and early evening. Winds will westerly and generally remain under 10kts. /KP/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 95 76 93 72 / 50 20 20 20 Meridian 92 74 92 73 / 80 50 30 30 Vicksburg 95 77 94 73 / 20 30 40 20 Hattiesburg 93 75 93 75 / 70 30 20 30 Natchez 96 76 95 73 / 10 10 20 30 Greenville 95 78 95 72 / 30 40 10 0 Greenwood 94 76 93 71 / 50 30 30 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.