textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms this afternoon into the evening along and south of I-20.

- Dangerous heat stress will persist across most of the area this afternoon and again across the western half of the area on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A cumulus field has developed this afternoon in two areas - across central LA and south MS and across east central MS. Much like yesterday, low level lapse rates are quite steep given the ample surface heating and low level moisture. This will provide potential for another round of isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, with lower chances in our northern/western areas where even fair weather clouds are more sparse. DCAPE remains high across the area, so wet microbursts resulting in damaging wind gusts will be possible in some storms, with greater odds further south where deep layer moisture is greater. Convection will diminish in coverage after sunset.

Tuesday and Wednesday: The remnant surface front will continue to stall and wash out over the next few days, with a Southeast US surface ridge becoming a bigger player. The position of this high favors the advection of a somewhat drier and...less hot...air mass being wedged around the Appalachians. What would this mean for us? Temperatures that are still above average but not as high as what we have been seeing and increasingly marginal heat indices, with sites less likely to reach heat advisory criteria each day. As this modified airmass begins to move into the eastern portion of the area tomorrow, we have clipped the heat advisory to only cover our western half. And it's possible by Wednesday an advisory will not be needed at all. Diurnal convection is still possible each day where deep layer moisture will be greater, favored over southern/western areas tomorrow then across the south on Wednesday.

Thursday through next Monday: Another weak cold front will approach from the north at the end of the week but stall before reaching our area. Increasing deep layer moisture will pool south of this feature, resulting in higher rain chances over the back half of the forecast period. Though it will still be hot, greater prevalence of clouds and rain may continue to temper the heat enough to avoid critical heat stress thresholds being met this weekend into early next week. /DL/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Isolated to scattered convection is possible late this afternoon through early evening mainly across central LA and south/east MS, with potential for brief visby reductions and gusts to 50 kt. Very brief patchy fog is possible around daybreak Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 96 73 94 / 20 10 0 10 Meridian 73 93 72 94 / 20 0 0 20 Vicksburg 74 97 73 94 / 10 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 74 94 73 93 / 40 30 10 60 Natchez 74 97 73 95 / 20 40 10 20 Greenville 73 100 75 98 / 0 10 0 0 Greenwood 73 97 73 96 / 0 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>028- 034>036-040>043-047>066-072>074.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for MSZ018-019- 025>028-034>036-040>043-047-048-053-054-059>061.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ074-075.