textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of dense fog possible through late morning, generally along and south of Interstate 20 into the Highway 84 to 98 corridors.

- Warmer than normal temperatures are expected through the end of this week. - The next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be focused around Thursday night into Friday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1211 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Rest of Tonight...Based upon current fog trends from observations and area traffic cameras across portions of Southeast Mississippi, I've issued a "Dense Fog Advisory" for Marion, Lamar, & Forrest counties until 9 AM Tuesday. We'll continue to monitor this fog develop across the area through the morning, as an expansion to this advisory may be needed if the potential for areas of dense fog continues to spread further north. /19/

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 713 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Rest of tonight...

Main concerns for the overnight period will be dense fog potential. Evening synoptic analysis indicate mean ridge axis migrating eastward into the ArkLaTex to MS River Valley. Weak stationary boundary will lift northeast in response to upper cold core/surface cyclone developing into MO. Winds gradually shift more southerly into the overnight hours. Low level return flow (southwesterly at 925/850mb) pick up by daybreak Tuesday. Lows will be seasonably warm, some 12F to 22F degrees above (52F to 62F). There is a persistent signal for patchy to areas of dense fog along and south of Interstate 20, with some areas in the Highway 84 to Highway 98 corridors decent HREF dense fog probabilities (30 to 50 percent) and some duration of 4 to 8 hours of higher dense fog probs. Best crossover temps potential (greater than 3F) is in this similar area. Further east into Interstate 20 corridor near the MS/AL stateline, these areas could see some quick brief reductions in visibility from advection fog but confidence is lower due to no crossover from much lower afternoon dewpoints in the wake of the stationary front. Updating the graphic to add an Elevated fog threat in these southern areas. Dense fog headlines are being contemplated and further updates may be needed. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1157 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The prevailing upper-level weather pattern across the CONUS through this weekend will feature ridging centered over the Gulf Coast/Southeast and troughing over the West/Southwest. Minor shortwave disturbances will be deflected north of our forecast area under this pattern, and then a more pronounced shortwave trough will eject eastward from the western trough Thursday through Saturday. The main chance for showers or thunderstorms in this 7-day forecast cycle will track with this disturbance and its associated low pressure system.

At this time, some thunder is possible during the Thursday evening through Friday time frame, but lack of height falls and weak low- level forcing across our area suggest no organized risk for severe thunderstorms at this time. Additionally, the wave may pass overnight with limited surface-based instability and warm mid-level temperature profile. Expectation at this time is potentially heavy rain showers and embedded thunderstorms. Then a cold front should arrive Friday night and moderate temperatures a little closer to normal for mid/late November. Temps may still be a few degrees warmer than normal, but not pushing 80/60 as we have to start this week. /NF/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1129 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Low stratus and patchy fog, some dense and periodically reducing visibilities to 1/4 mile, is forecast to result in a mix of MVFR/LIFR flight categories at area TAF sites mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor. That said, the better risk for dense fog will be across the Pine Belt region, i.e. KPIB & KHBG. At remaining TAF sites, i.e. KGLH, KGWO, & KGTR, due to the potential of patchy low stratus making it that far north, a mix of VFR/MVFR categories will exist there through mid-morning Tuesday. By 18Z Tuesday, VFR flight categories will prevail at area TAF sites. Winds across the area will remain between 5-10 knots from the south southeast along the Highway 82 corridor, to light from the south and calm along the Highway 84 corridor. By late morning Tuesday, winds will be more south southwesterly and breezy between 10-15 knots, gusting between 20-25 knots at times. This'll especially be the case in the Delta. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 62 82 60 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 79 59 83 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 82 63 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 83 60 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 83 61 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 80 63 82 63 / 10 10 0 10 Greenwood 81 64 83 63 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.