textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather over portions of Northeast Louisiana and Southwest Mississippi into this evening.

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather over Southeast Arkansas and north central Mississippi late Monday into Monday night.

- A more significant severe weather threat exists late Tuesday into Tuesday night, and additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Late this afternoon through tonight: As was the case yesterday, this morning's mesoscale convective system thoroughly overturned the airmass in our area, and so the stable conditions kept us dry and storm-free. That may change some however as we go through the remainder of today into the evening hours. Low level warm/moist air advection has resumed over western/southern portions of our forecast area, and this could help to modify conditions enough to bring a few storms this evening per some high res guidance. So will keep a small portion of NE LA/SW MS in the marginal risk. Otherwise, the overall increasing warm advection pattern will maintain a some low chances for shower activity even as the capping increases aloft. /EC/

For Monday into Monday night: Indications continue to be that favorable ascent and an increasingly robust severe weather threat will be mainly to our north in mid MS Valley where the exit region of a powerful upper level jet will juxtapose a very unstable warm sector and support a favorable environment for all modes of severe weather, but some additional questions have popped up for our area. For at least the southeast two thirds of our area, the anticyclonic branch of the upper jet should help to enhance the capping inversion and help to keep deep convective potential mainly north of the Hwy 82 corridor as we go through late Mon into Monday evening. Where some additional question now exists is with the potential for convection to initiate farther south over eastern TX into nwrn LA in the perturbed subtropical stream as was the case with today's 12z GFS. We are keeping the marginal risk going for northern portions of our area, and will wait to see short term trends with how convection may evolve as nightfall and the intensifying nocturnal low level jet help to promote some southward propagation of storms.

Late Tuesday through Tuesday night: relatively speaking, this is still the time frame for our main severe weather concern during this forecast. Very favorable split upper level jet dynamics will combine with a west-east frontal zone and very steep lapse rates to set the stage for what "could" be an impressive severe weather set-up in portions of the Lower MS Valley region. As of now, this most favorable west-east zone looks to set up along/north of the I-20 corridor and will follow SPC day 4 outlook concerning this, but confidence is shaky regarding just what latitude it will set up, so folks with interests in this area should pay close attention to updates. It still appears timing wise that this will mainly be a late Tue to overnight event, possibly lingering into early Wed morning, and it should be mentioned that we will need to monitor for flash flooding potential given the potential for convective training with west/southwest low to mid level flow juxtaposed with the boundary.

Wed through Fri night: another wave or two will likely impact our area in association with the continued active subtropical stream, however, as is often the case this time of year, the mesoscale influences and degree of convective overturning will have lot to say with how quickly the airmass can recover for additional severe and flash flooding threats. Confidence is there quite low with forecast details. /EC/86/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

All TAF sites are VFR this afternoon and this will continue at most sites through the period. Expect some stratus/fog to develop across the Pine Belt Region early on Monday and this may bring IFR/LIFR conditions to PIB/HBG, but should burn off by 14-15Z. The winds will mainly be southerly at 5-10kts./15/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 65 89 68 87 / 20 20 30 50 Meridian 61 89 65 86 / 10 20 30 50 Vicksburg 67 90 69 88 / 10 20 30 40 Hattiesburg 64 90 67 89 / 30 10 10 20 Natchez 67 91 69 90 / 10 20 10 30 Greenville 68 87 69 85 / 30 30 70 60 Greenwood 67 89 68 86 / 30 30 70 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.