textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen before moving northwards towards a landfall this evening along the northern Gulf coast.

- Gusty winds and flash flooding related to Hurricane Isaias may impact our forecast area this evening into Saturday.

- Fire weather danger remains increased today in northern and western portions of the forecast area ahead of Isaias.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hot and dry conditions will continue through tonight ahead of Hurricane Isaias approach to the Gulf coast. Breezy conditions combined with hot/dry conditions in place, there is a potential for fire weather concerns through tonight for the northern portions of the area.

Hurricane Isaias continues to move northeast in the central Gulf, eventually turning northward towards the AL/FL coastline over the next 24 to 36 hours. Isaias has strengthened to Cat. 2 at 104mph sustained winds with the satellite presentation improving and pressure (975mb) continuing to deepen. GOES East infrared imagery currently indicate some increasing shear but a deep burst of convection is developing on the western side. Center of circulation will remain mostly east of area of our forecast area, making landfall in the FL Panhandle just east of the AL/FL state line. This landfall location will keep greatest impacts further east. As the decaying Tropical Storm Isaias tracks northeast through Alabama through Saturday morning and degrades into a tropical depression, a unique synoptic setup will present the potential for enhanced winds across the northwestern counties and Delta region on the periphery of our CWA. The interaction between the decaying cyclone and the ridge of high pressure, a tight pressure gradient will establish strong northerly flow, sandwiching the wind field and creating a jet like mechanism on the back side of the circulation. With a 40-50 kt low-level jet like winds wrapping around the western flank, deep boundary mixing in the low-levels during the morning to early afternoon will allow for that to translate to the surface, maximizing gust potential as well. A wind advisory will be likely for portions of the area along the Mississippi River Valley with the next forecast update. Tropical Storm Wind probs are in the low categorical range (10 to 30 percent) but enough to support added tropical headlines. For this reason, a Tropical Storm Watch continues for Forrest, Jones, Jasper, Newton, Neshoba, Winston, Noxubee, Kemper, Lauderdale, Clarke, Oktibbeha, Clay and Lowndes Counties through Saturday evening. An Elevated was added earlier areawide to the HWO graphic for gusty winds, due to that better support in the CAMs and high- resolution ensemble wind probs for gusty winds. Wind gusts over 40 mph will be possible across the Pine Belt as early as 4-5 pm this evening.

Flash flooding is also possible starting late tonight through Saturday night. Expected totals are 2-4 inches of rain in north central, northeast to east MS while less in the 1-3 inch range in northwest, central to southeast MS. This is also due to warm cloud processes/tropical rain. As Isaias progress closer, additional updates will be provided so please remain up to date with the latest information.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions and north-northeast winds around 5 kts to begin the period. As Hurricane Isaias moves north towards the Gulf Coast through the period, winds in our region will increase in speed, with gusts to 30kts or greater first impacting the KHBG/KPIB sites by around 22Z today. Rain chances will also increase, though primary flight restrictions will be from MVFR to IFR ceilings mainly after 00Z Saturday. Low-level wind shear will also be a concern as the circulation of Isaias moves through the region. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 61 72 58 / 0 80 70 10 Meridian 82 59 71 58 / 40 100 70 10 Vicksburg 90 62 77 58 / 0 20 40 0 Hattiesburg 83 61 76 58 / 50 90 20 0 Natchez 89 64 80 59 / 0 10 20 0 Greenville 91 63 73 58 / 0 30 80 10 Greenwood 91 60 69 57 / 0 70 100 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch from this evening through Saturday evening for MSZ026>033-038-039-046-052-058.

Tropical Storm Watch for MSZ038-039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066- 074.

LA...None. AR...None.