textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are expected to develop early this morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 802 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Updated near-term forecast elements with latest guidance, with a close eye to fog potential. The cooler post-frontal air and calm winds would naturally set up for radiation fog development tonight, especially where heavier rain yesterday has ground wetter. But the complicating factor is the arrival of drier air as well late this afternoon. HRRR and LAMP guidance only depict dense fog development across northeast Louisiana and the open counties of the Mississippi Delta region, but REFS guidance gives greater probabilities for dense fog development generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace parkway. To our east into Alabama, where rain is most recent and air is still more saturated, dense fog is already developing as of this hour in valleys. A Dense Fog Advisory is likely to be issued, but confidence on the exact areas to include is too low at the moment. Have issued a local hazardous weather outlook graphic for dense fog potential, and will revisit headlines over the next few hours as we monitor trends in observations. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Through Thursday: Local radars showed the last of the rain associated with a cold front moving through our CWA, just to the southeast of our CWA. A surface high to the northwest will settle over our region tonight into Thursday. This will bring in drier air in the wake of the cold front and allow temperatures to bottom in the 40s at most locations. Under strong radiational cooling tonight, patchy fog will be possible toward sunrise. The near zonal flow aloft tonight will become southwesterly Thursday. Combined with the surface high and near full insolation, temperatures will warm above normal, peaking near 80F in the southeast. /22/

Through early next week...

While the pattern will be substantially more suppressed heading into the weekend with high pressure and continental air largely in control, an active southern stream jet will provide for an opportunity for increased cloudiness and perhaps an isolated shower or two through early next week. Overall, though, most locations will stay dry and those that do see a brief shower won't see much. The next 7 days will likely be dry and cool as overnight lows average 5 to 10 F below climate normals for this time of year.

Lows temperatures at times will flirt with the mid to lower 30s F, particularly in some of the typically cooler spots. This could result in some chance for a light frost though most places likely manage to stay above freezing. The coldest night appears to come Sunday night before we begin a slow moderating trend (lows "only" down into the lower 40s F) into the middle of next week. Regardless, these near-freezing temperatures serve to remind that now is a good time to begin practicing those winter safety practices. Ensuring plants, pets, and people are considered for as nights begin to more routinely threaten frost/freeze. /KP/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

A mix of MVFR to VFR conditions to start the TAF period, but patches of BR and FG around the area should deepen and expand through 12Z. IFR to LIFR conditions are possible at several sites with dense fog. Improvements to prevailing VFR at all sites expected by 15Z. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 48 78 49 77 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 48 79 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 46 77 47 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 52 82 51 80 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 48 78 49 78 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 47 73 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 46 74 45 72 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for MSZ018-019- 025>054-059>061.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for LAZ007>009-015- 016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Thursday for ARZ074-075.