textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather Saturday afternoon and evening.

- Much needed rain should fall across the entire area. - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather resumes.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Saturday: SPC made some adjustments to the marginal risk area to include all of our southeast area, but reasoning and timing are still about the same. The "peak" storm intensity should be over ne LA/southwest/south central MS into central MS during the afternoon to evening time frame where peak heating and pre-frontal sfc- based instability should coincide. There was a SE shift in the marginal area to account for pre-frontal convective chances, but locations along the I-59 corridor should still have a lesser threat compared to areas farther west. Otherwise, this is still not a very impressive event in terms of the storm ingredients. Weak lapse rates, weak deep layer shear, and weak forcing all limit potential for greater, more widespread severe, but just enough of these ingredients will combine to maintain this marginal severe threat. Dewpoints in the 60s to near 70 will also support a more diurnally driven mode ahead of the aforementioned front. Like days previously, ingredients could be sufficient to support a brief sub severe or low end severe storm.

Additionally, deep layer moisture could be sufficient to support isolated heavy rainfall, especially in areas of training storms along the front, and considering the slowed progression of the front. Flooding is not expected to be a concern however, with drought conditions across the area. It will merely be a beneficial rainfall.

Sunday through mid week: In the wake, sometime later Sunday, cooler and drier air is expected and will lead to greater diurnal ranges into mid next week. Following a brief cool down Sunday/Monday, temperatures will recover back to seasonal norms by Tuesday. West/Northwest flow should reinforce this drier airmass through much of next week, until the later half of the week when weak moisture recovery should bring slight rain chances back into the forecast, mainly in the southwest. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

PIB is currently reporting MVFR ceilings as of 1719Z. Other TAF sites are reporting VFR conditions to start off the period. A gusty south wind 17-20kt wl develop and continue this aftn until diminishing after 22Z. Isold SHRA/TSRA may come in vcty of GLH and HEZ this aftn but no convection is expected elsewhere. VFR ceilings will prevail across our area through 04Z Saturday. After 04Z, PIB and HBG will see ceilings drop to MVFR/IFR. MVFR/IFR ceilings will develop over the southern and central TAF sites between 08Z to 14Z Saturday. MVFR ceilings will prevail across all TAF sites by 15Z Saturday. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 66 82 55 70 / 0 80 100 20 Meridian 64 85 55 70 / 0 70 90 50 Vicksburg 66 83 54 69 / 10 90 90 10 Hattiesburg 67 85 63 74 / 0 70 90 60 Natchez 67 83 55 70 / 20 90 90 20 Greenville 67 80 51 67 / 20 90 80 0 Greenwood 66 83 53 70 / 10 90 90 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.