textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A low pressure system crossing the forecast area this weekend will bring breezy winds Saturday and showers and thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday morning. - Temperatures will remain above normal through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Tonight through Friday Night...

No changes have been made to the forecast for the short-term period. Near term guidance continues to show a >1024mb sfc high centered over the mid Mississippi Valley tracking east towards the Carolinas later tonight. Quiet weather conditions will prevail across our area through the overnight period as clouds start to build from the southwest. Areas along and south of Hwy 84 will see nighttime lows dip into the low to mid 50s. Elsewhere, lows will drop into the mid to upper 40s. Quiet conditions will continue heading into Friday with daytime highs peaking into the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide. Weather conditions will remain quiet looking ahead into Friday night with lows in the upper 40s for areas along and east of Hwy 45. Elsewhere, overnight temps will dip into the low to mid 50s. /CR/

Saturday and Sunday...

Long term guidance is still showing a progressive upper-level pattern pushing a deepened trough with an embedded sfc low and a cold front from the Southwest into the Lower Mississippi Valley late Saturday afternoon. As the cold front starts to propagate east across our forecast area Saturday evening, showers and storms will begin to develop across the area. Sufficient moisture and bulk shear will be in place ahead of the front which will help promote stronger storms.

A "Marginal" risk (Level 1 out of 5) will continue to be advertised west of the CWA mainly for areas west of the CWA including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA parishes, with damaging winds up to 60 mph being the primary hazard. Guidance is coming into closer agreement on timing, so the first estimate on thunderstorm arrival was added to the local graphic. Be sure to check back to refinement on severe wx potential and timing as the system evolves and we get closer to Saturday evening.

Also watching for the potential for heavy rain around the MS Delta as moisture anomalies are well above normal (IVT/PW in the 90-97.5 percentile). Currently the greatest rainfall amounts are expected over the MS Delta where training potential could bring localized higher rainfall totals near 2.5 to 3 inches. Elsewhere, 1- 2 inches is expected. Once the boundary leaves the area Sunday afternoon, temps are expected to slightly drop to near seasonal averages.

Monday through Thursday...

Upper-lvl ridge will settle over the ArkLaMiss region, resulting in a quiet weather pattern to start the new week. High (upper 60s/70s)/low(40s & 50s) temps will run 15-20 degrees above seasonal averages through the period. Northeast portions of the area could see a slight chance of showers (PoPs < 15%) Wednesday night. By Thursday morning weather conditions across our area will be generally quiet. /CR/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions and light winds from a generally east or northeast direction will prevail through the TAF period. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 49 73 55 74 / 0 0 0 20 Meridian 43 71 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 49 74 56 75 / 0 0 10 30 Hattiesburg 51 75 54 76 / 0 0 0 20 Natchez 54 76 58 76 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 43 69 53 73 / 0 0 10 40 Greenwood 43 70 53 74 / 0 0 10 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.