textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog expected to develop early this morning and potential additional patchy dense fog tonight.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 802 PM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Updated near-term forecast elements with latest guidance, with a close eye to fog potential. The cooler post-frontal air and calm winds would naturally set up for radiation fog development tonight, especially where heavier rain yesterday has ground wetter. But the complicating factor is the arrival of drier air as well late this afternoon. HRRR and LAMP guidance only depict dense fog development across northeast Louisiana and the open counties of the Mississippi Delta region, but REFS guidance gives greater probabilities for dense fog development generally along and northwest of the Natchez Trace parkway. To our east into Alabama, where rain is most recent and air is still more saturated, dense fog is already developing as of this hour in valleys. A Dense Fog Advisory is likely to be issued, but confidence on the exact areas to include is too low at the moment. Have issued a local hazardous weather outlook graphic for dense fog potential, and will revisit headlines over the next few hours as we monitor trends in observations. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Through mid next week (Wednesday)...

This morning into this weekend: Early this morning, GOES East water vapor and RAP analysis indicate cold core upper low over the Great Lakes and another over the Rockies. At the surface, a cold front moved through the area, with surface high pressure building into the ArkLaTex. This pattern will continue to filter in cooler, drier air in the wake. Highs will continue to be seasonably warm today and Friday (70F to 82F today and Friday), with much more seasonable and cooler lows (45F to 54F). With cooler air sliding down into the Delta region, dense fog will continue to be a concern where cooler air has swept in over wet ground. REFS probs keep most concerns along and northwest of the Natchez Trace Parkway while recent trends in gridded LAMP and HRRR and observations indicate potential in wetter and more recent rain areas along the Interstate 59 corridor. Based on these trends, expanded the Dense Fog Advisory east from Simpson, Smith, Jasper and Clarke and the Elevated for dense fog to include Lincoln, Lawrence and then the newly added fog headline areas from Simpson over to Clarke. Leaned on the REFS probs for Lincoln into Lawrence to add the Elevated there. Expanded the Limited to all of the rest of the area for patchy dense fog and will continue to monitor the need for any additional future adjustments to fog headlines/HWO graphic. Fog potential will be similar again tonight into Friday morning, as crossover temps will be extremely favorable for dense fog (8F to 10F). Based on that, added a Limited in similar areas REFS probs indicated this morning but may need additional adjustments.

As the upper trough phases over the Great Plains into the upper low, it will swing east into the weekend, with subtle shortwave ridging moving in by late weekend. This will be in advance of an upper low over the Rio Grande Valley into central Mexico, with increased isentropic ascent and clouds into the weekend. 1025mb surface high will build in late weekend into the Mid South, bringing much cooler temperatures (low to upper 60s north of Interstate 20 Saturday and Sunday, while low 70s Saturday and mid to upper 60s Sunday). Seasonably cool lows, some 5F to 10F below, will be the norm (39F to 50F Friday night and 35F to 42F Saturday and Sunday nights). Patchy frost may be a concern across the region Saturday and Sunday nights. There will be some gradient wind Saturday night and more calm Sunday night, but winds should remain light enough to support some frost potential, especially in low-lying and sheltered areas. Now is a good time to ensure plants, pets, and people are considered with more routine lows nearing frost to light freeze potential. Considering adding a Limited graphic in HWO for frost during these nights, mainly in north to northeast MS.

Early to mid next week: Quiet, partly cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist into the following week. Upper low parked over west-central TX will eject eastward, keeping moist ascent across the Gulf Coast states. Some clouds will persist during that time and cannot rule out isolated rain shower during this time. With some thermal temps warming, highs will moderate from seasonable early week to seasonably warm mid week (65F to 75F Monday to 70F to 78F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonably cool but gradually less cold. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CST Thu Nov 5 2026

Patches of BR and FG and some stratus have deepen and expand through 12Z. IFR to LIFR are ongoing or remain possible at several sites with dense fog. Improvements to prevailing VFR at all sites expected by 15Z. Light northerly winds will prevail this afternoon into early evening. Additional fog cannot be ruled out overnight but confidence is not high enough to introduce during the 12Z TAF cycle. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 78 49 77 46 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 79 47 77 43 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 77 47 77 44 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 82 51 80 48 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 78 49 78 48 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 73 47 71 42 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 74 45 72 41 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019- 025>061.

LA...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026.

AR...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.