textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy southerly winds are expected today, with gusts over 30 mph possible especially trough northeast LA, southeast AR, and northwest MS.

- Thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather return tonight and Wednesday into Wednesday night.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible tomorrow into Thursday, with some drought relief expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

This week and weekend into early next week...

This morning through mid to late week (Thursday): Quiet period to start the week before rain and storm potential peak up in the mid to late week period (Wednesday to Thursday). Low level ridge over the Gulf Coast will shift eastward through today. Early this morning, northwesterly flow and dry thermal profiles support mainly high cirrus streaming across the region today. As low level ridge (850mb high) shifts east over the FL Peninsula, southwesterly return flow will will bring an uptick in moist advection and thermal moist profiles back into the area from west to east. This will be in advance of a midweek frontal system. Water vapor and synoptic imagery depict mean longwave trough, stretched from the base into the Desert Southwest to Baja Peninsula all the way across the Intermountain West, central to northern Plains and into the Great Lakes to into Canada. Strengthened subtropical ridging over the Gulf keep the trough axis lagging to the southwest. Shortwave trough to the north is getting some shower and storm activity going in the Ozarks in western AR and this will propagate eastward. Cannot rule out some sneaking into the northwest Delta region, but rain chances remain low. As a low pressure evolves across the Ozarks into this evening, gusty gradient winds will persist. Refer to valid previous forecast update to reasoning of introduction in HWO graphics.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) continues to maintain a Marginal risk in the northwest Delta, with no activity really until after midnight. Shear profiles remain favorable if some activity ongoing to the north tonight sags southward into the Delta region before daybreak Wednesday. Seasonable warmth will really pick up Tuesday into Tuesday night, with the aforementioned nighttime temperatures peaking some 8F to 12F above normal. Highs peak around the low to mid 80s (82F to 87F). Rain chances pick up around to after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday (20 to 55 percent) in the Highway 82 corridor. The front will sag southward into Wednesday, with increased deep layer shear (35 to 65kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers, respectively) and steepening lapse rates and destabilization (mid level lapse rates around 7.5 to 8 deg C, vertical totals of 25C to 27C and MLCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg). Storm mode with predominately unidirectional shear profiles could be supercell to splitting cell/multicell variety, so all modes of severe weather remain possible, with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns, especially for areas that remain south of the frontal zone. Shear profiles in some convective allowing models are a little more favorable for supercell mode and increased clockwise curved hodographs (storm relative helicity around 250-350 m2/s2), which will increase some probabilities of tornadoes. Increased the confidence wording of tornadoes in the Slight risk area. Some convection looks to be anafrontal, which would limit it to more hail. Added onset timing, generally after 2PM Wednesday and lasting through early Thursday morning. Some westerly shear and destabilization will reinvigorate into Thursday afternoon, leading to potential isolated severe storm activity in the Pine Belt. Holding off introduction of Marginal from SPC in HWO graphics for now but will likely be needed as we get closer.

Deep moisture will peak Wednesday into Thursday (around 2 to 2.5 inch precipitable water and 330-340K 850mb Theta E) combined with strong cloud bearing layer flow around 45-50kts, still could result in locally heavy downpours. Probabilities of rainfall totals exceeding 3 to 4 inches are reasonable (30 to 70 percent greater than 3 inches and 25 to 50 percent greater than 4 inches). Holding off mention of flash flooding in HWO graphics due to recent drought but if these totals occur over a short duration, a Limited may be needed in future forecast cycles.

Seasonable conditions persist Wednesday and extending into the overnight hours. Rain and storm coverage Wednesday will remain high (35 to 55 percent southeast of the Natchez Trace, 40 to 80 percent along the Natchez Trace and up to 90 percent in the Delta to Highway 82 corridor). Rain totals will be decent in some areas (generally under an inch along and southeast of Natchez Trace to around an inch or higher to the northwest). As the trough swings eastward, the base of the trough will cutoff, keeping stalled frontal zone in the region. Rain and storm coverage remain the highest along and southeast of the Natchez Trace, similar to Wednesday but shifting southeast. Rain totals will be highest southeast of the Natchez Trace, while less to the northwest. Rain totals could reach a touch higher Thursday (around an inch and a quarter to an inch and three quarters). Rain totals through Thursday could exceed 2 inches, which should continue to help our ongoing rainfall deficits and drought. Temperatures will be seasonably cool during this wet period on Thursday, some 6F to 14F below (66F to 71F northwest of the Natchez Trace while 72F to 80F to the southeast).

Late week through this weekend (Friday through Sunday): Rain chances begin to shift southeast into late week. Synoptic and surface features will consist of cutoff low aloft near the International Border with frontal zone shifting southeast into the northern Gulf. This will keep some rain chances along the Natchez Trace through before daybreak Friday, with highest coverage into the Pine Belt to Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors into the afternoon hours. Seasonable cool conditions persist, some 5F to 8F below (72F to 76F for highs and 48F to 58F for lows Friday morning), while seasonable Friday night (low to mid 50s east of Interstate 55 to upper 50s to near 60s degrees elsewhere). Confidence is increasing in lagging stronger cutoff low stalling in the International Border, with continued isentropic ascent and rain coverage persisting in the Natchez Trace corridor a little later into the afternoon hours. For now, afternoon rain coverage remain on the low probabilistic side (15 to 25 percent). As shortwave trough swings into the ArLaTex into the weekend, expect rain coverage to pick up, likely as early as Saturday, clearing out late Saturday and filling back in Sunday (25 to 40 percent) ahead of another front.

Temperature forecast become more seasonable as return flow gradually shifts around into the weekend (highs in upper 70s to low 80s Saturday to mid to upper 80s Sunday and lows in upper 50s to low 60s Saturday night to low to mid 60s Sunday night). /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 545 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Some MVFR ceilings along our northern TAF sites (GLH/GWO) are expected to be short lived this morning around sunrise. During daytime hours expect winds to pick up at those same sites with a tightened gradient beginning to take hold. Nightfall and the subsequent stabilizing of the atmosphere setting up will allow for winds to begin to decline in speed. Ceilings are expected MVFR for the most part tomorrow morning, but a dip into IFR can not be ruled out for most sites. IFR/LIFR will dominate for HBG/PIB tomorrow morning./OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 83 68 83 64 / 10 10 80 90 Meridian 83 64 83 64 / 10 10 70 90 Vicksburg 83 69 83 61 / 10 10 80 90 Hattiesburg 84 65 85 69 / 0 0 50 60 Natchez 83 69 85 64 / 0 0 70 80 Greenville 82 69 76 56 / 10 40 90 90 Greenwood 82 69 78 58 / 20 30 90 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.