textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will decrease overnight into Monday morning.

- More seasonable temperatures will be the norm behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of the week.

- There is a medium chance (40 percent) of tropical system development in southwestern Gulf and Bay of Campeche over the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Rest of today into Monday:

Morning synoptic/RAP analysis indicates ridge centered just over the FL Peninsula, while another ridge is centered over the Four Corners. The Gulf Coast region remains on the western periphery of the former mentioned ridge. High moisture laden atmospheric profiles (around 2.2-2.5 inches) and a stationary frontal boundary situated southeast of the Natchez Trace. This is keeping widespread clouds and convection initiation (CI) less robust. Expect low to medium rain chances and isolated to scattered (20 to 60 percent) while high rain chances and widespread coverage southeast of the Natchez Trace (greater than 60 to 90 percent coverage). While some storms cannot be ruled out across the area, weak skinny thermo profiles and meager lapse rates will limit convective organization again today. HREF PMMs indicate some low chance probs (around 10 to 30 percent) of exceeding 3 inch rainfall totals, mainly in east-southeast Mississippi in the Highway 45 to Interstate 59 corridors. However, with low confidence of high convective rates, especially further south and east where heating will be less, holding off any advertisement in the in local HWO graphics. Locally heavy downpours and isolated flash flooding threat cannot be ruled out again where backbuilding can occur (light backbuilding flow in the Highway 84 and 98 corridors into the Interstate 59 corridors). Temperatures will be seasonable today, some 3-5F above in the Highway 82 corridor (82-85F) while near normal to the south (79-81F).

Rain chances decrease in coverage this evening, in the low to medium chance and scattered coverage (25 to 55 percent), with areas of the highest chances southeast of the Natchez Trace likely in the Pine Belt through daybreak Sunday. Lows will seasonably warm, some 6-12F above (62-68F). Deep trough over the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay and shortwave over the ArkLaTex will drive a drying front down into the area into early this week. Deep moisture decrease from north to south through the day, with low to medium chance (15 to 30 percent) of rain southeast of the Natchez Trace. Temperatures will be seasonably warm, some 4-8F above (82-88F), with areas northwest of the Natchez Trace warmer as areas to the northwest will be mostly sunny.

Through next weekend...

High pressure will establish northwest flow aloft and low-level easterlies over the area which will push a backdoor front into the area. This now looks to be the main push of reinforcing dry air into the area into midweek. This will keep a dry but gradually moderating pattern ongoing into late week. Main attention will turn to the Bay of Campeche and southwest Gulf, where numerous AI model suite consensus and now operational GFS indicate some organized low pressure and potential tropical development late through the week into next weekend. The National Hurricane Center has added a 40 percent chance of development in this region next week. The ensemble mean track is generally meander in the Bay of Campeche before potential northwest to north propagation. There may be some influence of an upper low diving into the southern Plains and stout upper jet diving into the Rio Grande and International Border into the Gulf Coast states. This could keep the system more sheared and asymmetric, which would focus impacts along and east of any potential track. At the very least, there is enough to necessitate monitoring for some potential slug of tropical moisture into late week and next weekend. Seasonable warmth will turn to more seasonable temperatures into next weekend. /DC/SAS/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

GLH-GWO wl remain in VFR conditions through the end of the TAF period. Elsewhere, a mix of VFR to IFR conditions along with -RA wl continue through 09Z before improving at GTR and then after 14Z improving cntrl and east MS. Conditions wl then continue to improve over the south Mon aftn. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 63 87 62 88 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 62 86 60 86 / 10 10 0 0 Vicksburg 60 88 61 90 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 86 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 Natchez 63 87 63 89 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 57 86 58 88 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 57 88 58 90 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.