textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold temperatures are likely areawide Friday night through Sunday.

- Colder than normal temperatures will continue into next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

HREF and REFS ensembles show good chances for fog development late tonight into Thursday morning. Have higher confidence in the areas where evaporating wintry precip is still boosting RH values and keeping temperatures chilled, but strong radiational cooling with light winds across the area would typically support fog production. A complicating factor is that conditions across most of the area were fairly mixed today with dew points down into the lower to mid 20s. Even if temps cool this far overnight, moisture will be constrained to the surface. Anticipation is that frost production will be quite efficient, with ground fog enhanced over wet fields and open areas. Will continue to evaluate whether a significant threat from widespread freezing fog exists. Caution should generally be exercised if temps are below freezing and bridges or elevated roadways are foggy. A dense fog graphic has been added to local hazard graphics through tomorrow morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 149 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave over our southeast zones that will continue swinging east of our CWA this evening and help draw a surface high east across our CWA tonight as well. This will result in a slightly cooler night tonight with morning lows bottoming a couple degrees cooler than they did this morning. Upstream another shortwave trough will be diving over the southern Plains by morning and help deepen a surface low over the central Plains. The WAA associated with this surface low will result in a light return flow to our west. This is expected to lead to areas of fog and perhaps freezing fog just west of our CWA. Current thinking is that patchy fog will develop over our CWA but there are some guidance that suggest some decent probabilities of more widespread fog development. Thursday wl see nearly zonal flow aloft that will help the surface low track southeast to the ArkLaTex by evening. This will result in return flow across our CWA and a decent warming of temperatures. Afternoon highs will top out 5-8 degrees warmer than today. /22/

Friday Night through Wednesday...

All is on track concerning the dangerous cold event expected for this weekend.

As much colder air moves in Friday night and early Saturday, much of the guidance still show some light snow shower potential and perhaps a light dusting of snow. It does appear that some of the long term guidance (from 12Z this morning) show an embedded jet max that could be more compact and slower to eject through the long wave trough. If this scenario were to occur, then there may be a brief possibility that a good portion of the area could see a smattering of precip prior to mid morning and the air would be plenty cold enough for the precipitation type to be snow. Will keep out the mention for now given the light amounts and minimal impact, but it is something to monitor.

Dangerous cold will continue to be the main focus for the long term period heading into the weekend. Long term guidance continue to show a rapidly deepening sfc low off the coast Carolina's that will work to tighten pressure gradient over the area Saturday morning. This will bring strong NNW winds across our CWA in advance of a strong sfc high with dangerous cold wind chills generally around -2 to -5 deg F. Given the high confidence of gusty winds and morning lows in the teens for Saturday, the "Elevated" threat for dangerous cold has been upgraded to a "Significant" threat for most of our area. Trends will continue to be monitored as we get closer and an "Extreme" risk could be introduced mainly for northwest portions of our forecast area where ice storm response/recovery operations continue. An Extreme Cold Watch has been issued for our entire CWA including portions of southeast AR and all of our northeast LA parishes from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon.

The coldest wind chills values are expected Friday night into Saturday with wind gusts peaking around 30-40 mph as the pressure gradient tightens across the southeast CONUS. Went ahead and bumped up the wind gusts for Saturday using a blend of higher wind guidance to account for this. A "Limited" risk for gradient wind has been introduced for our entire CWA for Saturday, and this may need to be increased as we get closer if current guidance trends hold. The pressure gradient will begin to relax Saturday night as high pressure moves over the area, which will help limit wind chill. Nighttime lows Saturday night into Sunday morning will be in the teens to low 20s with pockets of single digits in the north. It is possible that lows this weekend could have the potential to break several records especially if colder guidance verifies.

Early next week, a shortwave trough and associated surface low will turn winds back out of the south and will help to moderate temperatures to near normal. This will also bring a possibility of light rain showers across much of our forecast area by Wednesday with local PoPs between 35-40%. /CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 511 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

High confidence in VFR conditions through at least 06Z Thursday. Then increasing chances for BR or FZFG at some locations between about 09Z and 14Z. VFR conditions should prevail after any morning fog and stratus thin and lift. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 25 55 35 45 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 25 54 33 50 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 25 53 33 42 / 0 0 10 0 Hattiesburg 28 58 36 55 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 27 57 35 45 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 25 47 30 37 / 0 0 10 0 Greenwood 23 51 31 40 / 0 0 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Extreme Cold Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for ARZ074-075.