textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal warmth and increasing rain chances can be expected this week.

- A greater chance for showers and storms could materialize this weekend, but the forecast for significant rainfall is uncertain.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 837 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Afternoon convection has diminished with the loss of daytime heating, but moist southerly flow persists. With it will come another round of low stratus clouds late tonight into the early part of Tuesday. While we can't rule out a few sprinkles as well, the chance for measurable rain for the remainder of the night is quite low. No major changes are planned for the near term forecast at this time. /DL/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Tonight through Sunday...This forecast period will be characterized by above normal warmth, along with, and surprisingly, actual chances for showers and storms. This is something we haven't had in the forecast for a while. Overall, strong high pressure at the surface will remain wedged into the region from the east during much of this time, while high pressure aloft gradually becomes more positioned to the east of the region. The resulting increased warmth and moisture across the region will lead to mainly diurnally driven showers and storms developing each afternoon through at least mid-week. Something to note, particularly Tuesday afternoon, is that there's currently advertised close to 2000 J/kg of MU CAPE across southern portions of the area. While flow from the south is weak, convection that develops across this area could become intense enough to produce some gusty winds, along with some heavy rainfall rates with slow moving convection.

The better, more widespread, rain chances across the forecast area currently look to come Thursday night into Friday, and again Saturday night into Easter Sunday. While neither of these days look to be complete washouts at the moment, better chances for showers and storms exist at these times due to it being more driven by shortwaves trying to move through the region. At present, the system Thursday night will struggle to make headway through the forecast area as high pressure holds firmly in place. However over the weekend, models are currently in agreement that a stronger shortwave will drag a cold front into and through the CWA. If that scenario verifies, not only will it result in rain chances over the entire area, it'll also bring an airmass change to the region in its wake. /19/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1234 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Latest satellite imagery and sfc obs show MVFR cigs spreading into cntrl MS from the south. MVFR cigs wl continue to spread north and IFR cigs wl be psbl by 10Z cntrl and south. MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail until after 17Z before improving to VFR. By 17Z a gusty 17-20kts south wind will develop west and cntrl before subsiding by 23Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be psbl this morning with greatest coverage during the aftn and across south MS. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 84 65 83 / 10 40 0 50 Meridian 63 84 61 84 / 10 60 0 30 Vicksburg 64 87 66 83 / 0 20 0 50 Hattiesburg 65 83 64 84 / 10 70 10 40 Natchez 65 86 66 83 / 0 40 0 70 Greenville 64 86 66 82 / 10 10 10 50 Greenwood 66 87 66 84 / 10 20 10 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.