textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Much cooler and drier air will continue to surge into the area for the remainder of Thanksgiving Week.

- A quick round of rainfall and perhaps a few storms this weekend will be followed by colder conditions as we go into next week.

- We are monitoring the potential for winter weather over northwest portions of the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Today through Friday night: Overall, the weather pattern will be cold for the next week in our forecast area due to a dominant polar stream over central and eastern portions of the CONUS. In the near term, cold high pressure ridging southward through the lower MS Valley will bring continued dry conditions with below normal temperatures. A freeze is probable for most of the area tonight, and for eastern portions of the area Friday night.

Saturday through Sunday: A fast-moving shortwave trough will zip through the polar stream and bring a round of light to moderate rainfall, especially in the late Saturday to early Sunday time frame. Forecast confidence for limited impacts is high given the progressive nature of the system, modest moisture return, and limited low level instability. With that said, shear parameters will be impressive, so we will need to monitor for any obs/guidance trends that suggest greater destabilization.

Sunday night through Wednesday: Behind the weekend system, a colder airmass will advect into our region ahead of the next shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains in the cold cyclonic flow aloft. The consensus of global model solutions suggests that backing low/mid level flow ahead of the trough will increase moist isentropic ascent and result in the quick onset of light to moderate rain, especially as we approach daybreak and go through the day Monday. Near surface wind trajectories emanating from the cold centered over the midwest region will help to maximize and focus shallow cold air advection into the upper ArkLaMiss Delta region into north central MS, and it is here that we are seeing an increase in the number of global ensemble members suggesting the potential for freezing rain Monday morning.

With this potential freezing rain event being several days out, and given that a significant amount of guidance still show little to no wintry precip in our area, will hold off on any formal messaging at this point. The airmass should modify enough by Monday afternoon to bring an end to the FZRA threat, and then the primary shortave trough approaching may help to increase rainfall potential Monday night into Tuesday. Another round of light wintry precip can't be ruled out over northwest portions of the area for Monday night as well, but confidence is lower for this occurrence as deeper cold air will lag behind the system as it crosses our area. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR flight conditions with northerly winds will prevail through the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 33 55 37 60 / 0 0 0 30 Meridian 30 53 32 58 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 33 56 39 61 / 0 0 0 50 Hattiesburg 34 59 37 67 / 0 0 0 10 Natchez 35 58 40 67 / 0 0 0 30 Greenville 33 52 38 55 / 0 0 10 80 Greenwood 30 53 37 56 / 0 0 0 60

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.