textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will continue this afternoon and again Wednesday, mainly over the western half of the area.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Another quiet evening is on tap. RAP/water vapor analysis indicate ridge of high pressure aloft over the southeast states, gradually building westward. Surface high still resides over the central Gulf, with easterly low level flow and backdoor front shifting in from the east. This is bringing some drier air evident in GOES East total precipitable water (PWs falling to around 1.3 inches) in central to east MS while deeper to the west closer to 2 inches. This keeps the region dry again tonight with limited cloud cover and clear skies overnight. Lows will remain seasonably warm, some 8-14F above (73-76F). Updates will be out shortly. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 108 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Going through Wednesday All is generally on track with the forecast and no significant adjustments have been made so far today. the heat wave continues as strong mid/upper ridging builds across the region. High temperatures will again approach the triple digits in many areas today and tomorrow, with high temp records in jeopardy at multiple local climate sites. One notable difference from recent days is a shift to easterly low level flow, gradually bringing a drier airmass into the area. This will continue to yield lower heat indices across a portion of east central MS today and for most areas east of I-55 on Wednesday. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today for all other areas, and another another has been issued for tomorrow in the same area. With deep layer moisture becoming more limited to the southern and western portions of the area, that is the region where diurnal convection will be more likely this afternoon - south/west MS, northeast LA, and southeast AR, and we have begun to see a few showers as of early this afternoon. By tomorrow, the focus will be even more limited to south MS and central LA. A few of these storms could produce locally strong wind gusts.

Thursday through next Tuesday: A drier airmass will continue to shift into the area Thursday into Friday. This airmass will still support hot days, with temps still approaching the triple digits in the ArkLaMiss Delta through Saturday. But with dewpoints in the 60s, mixing down into the 50s at times, heat stress will significantly decrease through the end of the week. Morning temps will also dip into the 60s at times in many areas late this week. Deep layer moisture will begin to increase again this weekend into early next week, with returning chances for diurnal convection each day. /DL/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

VFR flight categories with light southeasterly winds will prevail through the TAF period. Southeast winds will increase slightly Wednesday, around 10mph and slightly higher gusts. Some scattered cumulus deck around 5-7kft is ongoing and will redevelop into the afternoon to early evening hours into Wednesday. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 74 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 74 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 74 95 70 94 / 0 10 0 0 Natchez 74 96 73 96 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 74 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 74 98 72 98 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>037- 040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for MSZ018-019- 025>037-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>064-072.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for ARZ074-075.