textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will continue through Thursday.

- A few strong storms can't be ruled out ahead of a cold front late Thursday afternoon into night.

- A brief cool down is expected Friday through Friday night before a more substantial warm-up takes place early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Tonight through early next week:

Warm advection aloft is hastening the retreat of the cold/dry air mass in our region today, and surface conditions are responding with temperatures/dewpoints getting back to more typical values. Tonight we'll see a greater increase in low level moisture transport, and this will lead to scattered shower coverage over mainly the northwest half of the area as we approach daybreak. This warm advection regime should continue for much of Wednesday into Wednesday night.

By Thursday, an approaching cold front will help to focus deeper moisture, and increasing lift may help to initiate a few thunderstorms over the forecast area. There is an added complexity that reduces the forecast confidence concerning thunderstorm impacts. Guidance is showing strong agreement for a thunderstorm cluster to develop over the northern Gulf and move onshore in the central Gulf Coast region early Thursday, and this could disrupt the thermodynamic environment in our area by intercepting better low level moisture transport. It is unclear how this scenario will evolve in the details, and with SPC and ML/AI guidance maintaining better severe weather probs north of our forecast area, will continue to hold off on any formal messaging, especially given weak instability/lift.

Following the front, cooler temperatures will follow late Thursday night and persist through Friday/Friday night, but this will be a relatively quick shot of cool air with the colder anomalies passing well to our north in the progressive weather pattern. Thereafter a more substantial warm-up appears definite now given strong agreement among global model ensembles. In the upper levels it is about as warm of pattern as you will ever see in the south central CONUS as we lead up to Christmas Day. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High clouds will increase through tonight ahead of an approaching weather disturbance. A brief period of MVFR stratus clouds is possible across south MS around daybreak Wed morning, with VFR conditions returning by mid-morning. Scattered light SHRA is also possible areawide beginning early Wed morning and continuing into the day; however, the potential for impacts to flight categories is low. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 41 65 53 71 / 0 20 30 80 Meridian 37 62 48 67 / 0 20 40 80 Vicksburg 42 64 53 71 / 10 30 10 80 Hattiesburg 40 67 53 73 / 0 20 50 70 Natchez 43 66 54 74 / 10 20 20 60 Greenville 41 57 51 66 / 40 30 20 90 Greenwood 42 61 51 66 / 30 30 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.