textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into tonight; with a Slight Risk across the north and a Marginal Risk for severe storms over central and southern portions of the area.

- There is a Limited threat for dangerous heat stress today with heat index values peaking near 105 degrees.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1057 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

At mid morning satellite imagery showed abundant sunshine with a cu field developing over our CWA. This has helped temperatures warm to around 90F already in spots. Our airmass is warm moist and becoming unstable. Local microburst checklist showed microbursts will be likely across most of our CWA. In addition there is a stalled boundary across our northeast along with convection dropping southeastward across northeast Mississippi. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our northeast for severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and hail. An additional Watch or an expansion of the current Watch is possible this evening as more organized convection drops into our CWA. With the heat and humidity across the CWA this morning heat indices have been on the rise as well. Peak heat index values will be around 105F in may areas this afternoon. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Today into Tonight:

In the short term, an axis of deep moisture and instability cutting across our area will serve as a focus and fuel for thunderstorms today. An early morning MCS coming out of the Ozarks may graze the northeastern portions of our forecast area later this morning, but the latest suite of high res guidance indicates the southern flank of the morning MCS or a residual NW-SE oriented boundary will serve for convection to develop into the afternoon and evening. Any MCS developing from this continued activity should feel the influence of wind shear from the west or northwest, favoring east or southeast moving lines. But as guidance is indicating, storms in the moist and unstable axis should have the ability to build southward through the 3000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE today. The Marginal Risk for severe storms today primarily accounts for a wind threat with organized lines, though hail can't be ruled out. The shortwave ridge aloft is helping to keep temps hot too. A Limited threat for dangerous heat exists today with heat index values rising to around 105 degrees before rain moves through.

Tuesday through Sunday:

The pattern will break down, with a ridge drifting into the Great Lakes region and a trough sliding south toward the Gulf Coast. This should push a cold front into and through the area Tuesday into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will be pushed mainly to the south where better moisture and instability reside. The slightest of chances is retained in the southern tier or our forecast area on Wednesday, but could be a day without rain anywhere as PWAT values drop below an inch in our northeast.

Dry air and cooler temps can't persist for too long in early June, and by Friday, the ridge shifts and a surge of 2+ inch PWATs moves back into the southern Mississippi River Valley. Areawide 50-60% POPs return for next weekend with showers and thunderstorms back in the forecast. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

VFR conditions wl prevail through the aftn into the evening but local radars were showing isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA developing across the north that wl increase in coverage and affect TAF sites. Once the TSRA dissipate toward 06Z VFR conditions wl prevail until 11Z when MVFR cigs wl develop. MVFR cigs wl prevail until improving after 16Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 73 89 68 / 40 20 50 10 Meridian 94 72 89 66 / 60 20 50 10 Vicksburg 93 74 89 69 / 20 30 30 10 Hattiesburg 93 73 91 69 / 40 40 70 30 Natchez 94 74 91 70 / 40 20 50 20 Greenville 93 73 87 67 / 10 50 10 0 Greenwood 93 72 87 66 / 40 60 20 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.