textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Limited threat (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding this afternoon into tonight. - Warming trend mid to late week, with increasing heat stress a potential concern, especially into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

This week into next weekend...

Through midweek (Wednesday): Early this morning the region remains on the southwestern periphery of a deepening trough axis lingering in the the TN Valley. Morning RAP/upper air and water vapor analysis indicates stout nearly 600DM over the lee side of the Rockies into the mid to high Plains, while a deepening trough axis/subtle low pressure exists in the TN Valley. There is a stationary boundary that may sag southward through the day. The combination of daytime heating, frontal/moisture convergence and southwestward propagation of developing upper low will spark additional coverage (scattered to numerous in the 40 to 80 percent range) mainly along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. With deep moisture profiles (PWs in the 1.8 to 2.1 inch range), especially closer to the developing upper low in central to east- northeast MS, light to variable backbuilding vectors, some locally heavy downpours are possible again today. Kept a similar configuration for a Limited HWO graphic for flash flooding this afternoon to late evening. Heavy downpours of 2 to 4 inches in a short period of time cannot be ruled out, which could lead to localized flash flood concerns. This front will be stationary or waffle in the region and combined with deep moisture (around 2.0 to 2.2 inches) and light flow, scattered to numerous rain and storms, with embedded locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out through midweek. While severe storms aren't forecast, some light westerly flow on the periphery of the westward migrating upper low could spark some more robust storms that could produce some gusty winds through Wednesday afternoon. This higher rain and storm coverage and clouds will keep seasonable warmth in check, with below normal highs, some 4F to 8F degrees below (85F to 91F) and seasonable lows (70F to 73F). /DC/

Thursday into next weekend: Ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances (isolated to scattered in the 20 to 40 percent range) across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the mid 90s next weekend. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period, some 3F to 6F above (73F to 76F). This pattern looks to bring back concerns for increasing heat stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast. Holding off introducing HWO heat graphics for now but will monitor if trends hold. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 735 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Low ceilings are ongoing this morning, resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions (localized LIFR stratus). SHRA return after 13/16-19Z, with storms from 13/20Z-14/03Z, which could cause categorical reductions in flight conditions at affected sites. Brief gusty winds and localized downpours cannot be ruled out. Additional round of low stratus is possible after 14/06Z Tuesday, with IFR to LIFR ceilings from low stratus possible, especially in east to southeast TAF sites. /DC/SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 71 86 71 / 50 50 70 40 Meridian 88 71 84 70 / 60 60 70 30 Vicksburg 88 71 87 71 / 50 40 60 40 Hattiesburg 85 71 86 71 / 70 20 70 20 Natchez 86 71 86 71 / 70 10 60 30 Greenville 90 72 87 71 / 20 30 70 40 Greenwood 91 71 87 71 / 40 40 90 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.