textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible tonight in Pine Belt (Interstate 59, Highway 84 to Highway 98 corridors).

- Much above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions will be the rule through next Wednesday.

- Rain and thunderstorm chances will increase late next week as a frontal boundary attempts to push into the ArkLaMiss region.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 954 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

HREF dense fog probs have increased somewhat in the Pine Belt and Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridors. Convective allowing model guidance, including HRRR, RAP and time-lagged guidance and HREF dense fog probs duration of several hours, probability of dense fog is enough to warrant mention in local hazard graphic. These areas remain in the corridor of best crossover temperatures in excess of 3F to 5F degrees. In addition, added a Dense Fog Advisory in the Highway 84 to 98 corridors, in the southern tier of three counties (Marion, Lamar, Forrest) from 2AM to 9AM. Updates are out. /DC/

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Upper level ridge remains centered over central TX, with persistence the norm in flow aloft and at the surface (northwesterly flow aloft and light southerly flow at the surface). Another seasonably warm night, 8F to 16F above (51F to 54F east of Interstate 55 and 56F to 59F to the west of Interstate 55 and northwest in the Delta). Another night of efficient crossover temperatures (>3F degrees) may favor patchy fog, especially in low-lying river valleys in the Pine Belt (Interstate 59, Highway 84 to 98 corridors. Kept mention of patchy fog overnight, but duration of HREF dense fog probs are lower in this region (higher in Highway 84 along and west of Interstate 55). Holding off any hazard outlook graphics for dense fog. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

The forecast going through the middle of next week can best be described as unusually warm and dry. The most prominent weather feature affecting our region will be a warm longwave ridge that will gradually shift from the Plains to the MS Valley. As this happens, subsident anticyclonic flow will tend to deflect any potential weather systems to our west and north. Surface temperatures will be well above normal with departures of +10 to +20 deg F each day.

Looking ahead to late next week, global model ensembles indicate less variability among members as they converge on a solution that would promise greater rain chances late next week. Forecast confidence has increased for us getting significant rainfall (e.g., > 1 inch) over northwest portions of the area in the Thu- Fri time frame, when a stronger southern stream shortwave trough is forecast to finally make a dent in the ridge. This pattern could allow a frontal boundary to stall over the ArkLaMiss region and help focus a fairly long duration of moisture transport and lift into the upper Delta region in our forecast area. For locations roughly along/southeast of the Natchez Trace parkway, lighter rainfall amounts are indicated as a weakening and more progressive front should push through.

Aside from the rainfall, this system could pose some concern for a marginal severe weather risk, and we'll be monitoring for that as well. For now at least, AI/ML and analog guidance are bearish with any severe weather probs, and there is no formal messaging being considered for significant impacts. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

VFR flight categories and light to variable winds, generally under 10mph, will prevail through the TAF period, with any concerns with MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions (due to BR or FG) at HBG and PIB. Onset time just prior to daybreak around 14/11-12Z Saturday and lifting around 14/13Z. This is more likely in low- lying river valleys and areas of crossover temperatures greater than 3F, which is more in southeast TAF sites (MEI, PIB and HBG). VFR conditions are expected afterwards Saturday. There will be a noticeable uptick in gusty southwesterly gradient winds after 15/14-16Z Saturday (sustained up to 15mph and gusts up to 20 to 25mph). /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 78 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 78 51 79 55 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 79 56 79 58 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 80 53 81 55 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 80 54 79 57 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 79 58 79 59 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 78 56 79 59 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM CST Saturday for MSZ072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.