textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions are expected across portions of the forecast area on Tuesday.

- Several disturbances will bring rain chances through the week ahead.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Rest of tonight...

Evening analysis indicate ridging over the TX Panhandle to Desert Southwest while the Gulf Coast region remains on the western fringe of trough/shear axis moving into the Eastern Seaboard to Northeast. A stationary front remains across the Interstate 20 corridor, with deep moisture in excess of 2 inches across the Gulf Coast states. With earlier morning convection, the environment remains fairly stable and quiet. Additional overrunning convection is possible just around daybreak. Some patchy fog and stratus cannot be ruled out overnight in central to northwest zones. Lows will remain seasonably warm (71-75F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 139 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Early morning elevated convection to our northwest continued its evolution into an MCC that brought rain to a good portion of the area this morning. Lingering areas of light to moderate rain and embedded thunder continue in the cooler air mass left in its wake early this afternoon. Rain chances will decrease through the afternoon, but the moisture axis remains aligned with northwest flow aloft. Additional showers and thunderstorms could develop along this zone again late tonight into Tuesday morning. There isn't a widespread risk for severe thunderstorms with this next round, but gusty winds and heavy rain are always possible with any stronger storms.

Equally as exciting as the rainfall is the lower temperatures. The KJAN temperature approaching 2 PM is 78 degrees. Thinning clouds in the wake of rain may allow a little rebound in temperatures, but the threat for dangerous heat today was washed out. Tomorrow is uncertain as well, given the possibility for rain in the morning, but will advertise "Limited" threat area for dangerous heat tomorrow mainly our northeast Louisiana parishes, southeast Arkansas counties, and portions of Mississippi west of I-55 and in the Pine Belt. In these areas, heat index could approach 105 degrees in the afternoon pending rain development.

Rain chances continue Wednesday into Friday associated with disturbances through the northwest flow aloft, and then it appears that the ridge to our west will break down and translate eastward again along the Gulf Coast region. A relatively drier stretch then headed into early next week. Once the ridge pivots to our east early next week, rain chances should transition to focus on sea breeze development and air mass thunderstorms. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 903 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR flight conditions prevail a majority of the 00Z TAF period. Some brief drops of visibility and ceilings falling to IFR/LIFR around 25/09-13Z Tuesday. Low probs (25-45%) of SHRA will be possible most sites, outside of GTR and MEI, between 25/11-16Z Tuesday. Winds will be light and variable into Tuesday afternoon. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 94 73 96 / 20 50 10 30 Meridian 73 95 73 96 / 10 30 10 30 Vicksburg 72 93 73 96 / 20 40 10 10 Hattiesburg 73 94 73 97 / 10 30 10 40 Natchez 73 94 74 98 / 10 40 10 10 Greenville 73 94 74 96 / 30 30 20 20 Greenwood 71 94 72 95 / 30 50 30 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.