textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry weather will be the general rule through Tuesday night.

- Milder and wetter conditions are expected for late week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Tonight...

Evening surface analysis indicate 1027mb surface high situated over the western Gulf. Mean polar trough axis remains across the region, with cold and dry pattern locked in (precipitable water less than quarter inch). As surface ridge builds northeast to the northern Gulf Coast, winds will shift from southerly, light and variable overnight to northwesterly into Monday. This will be in conjunction with a reinforcing front moving southeast and another stout surface high progged to move in Monday night. Radiational cooling will support persistence forecast (seasonably cold subfreezing lows of 22F to 29F). Frost is likely again overnight through mid-morning Monday. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Today Through Tuesday Night: A broad polar trough anchored over eastern CONUS will keep our CWA locked into a cold and dry pattern through Tuesday night. Surface high pressure will reinforce below average temperatures with little in the way of cloud cover or precip chances. Winds will remain northerly to northwesterly adding a wind chill at times, however wind chill values are expected to stay just below advisory thresholds.

Wednesday through next Weekend: Midweek will bring a shift in the pattern as polar flow lifts north, allowing warm air to advect into the region. This transition will bring rain chances back to the forecast along with a noticeable warming trend from Wednesday into Friday night. Current guidance suggest rainfall totals will be decent with minimal instability, limiting the potential for thunderstorms. By the weekend, model consensus decreases as models vary on timing of a strong 1045 mb polar high surging southward from Canada through the Midwest. When the polar air does make its way to our area zonal flow will help set up a distinct baroclinic boundary across the area, helping to maintain a active weather pattern. Forecast refinements are likely as confidence increases as we progress through the week./KP/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 607 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail the next 24 hours. Northerly winds (sustained up to 10mph; gusts up to 15mph) lighten this evening and then shift northerly into Monday afternoon. Frost is likely again overnight through mid-morning Monday. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 26 52 26 52 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 26 52 23 50 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 26 52 26 53 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 28 57 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 28 56 28 55 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 28 44 24 48 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 25 46 23 50 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.