textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk for strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Heavy rainfall rates could lead to localized flash flooding in low-lying or urban areas tomorrow evening into early Wednesday morning.

- Cooler and drier weather will develop this weekend into next week, with frost or a light freeze possible in some areas. /NF/

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Rest of tonight...

Evening RAP/water vapor and 00Z upper air analysis indicate ridge axis over the Gulf Coast states into Mid South while stout longwave trough is digging into the TX Panhandle. This is helping surface cyclogenesis/sub-1000 mb surface low pressure system developing and currently ejecting into the north-central Plains. Over the Gulf Coast, strong return flow persists overnight. Deep moisture remains over the region (precipitable water around 1.4 to 1.6 inches). Dry and cloudy night is on tap. For sensible weather, this pattern supports continued seasonable warm lows, 16F to 20F above (62F to 66F). However, cannot rule out with widespread stratus and persistent southeast winds, lows could be closer to higher end of blended ensemble suite (75th to 90th percentile between 66F to 70F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The upper-level shortwave ridge overhead today will give way to a trough and deepening low pressure system making its way into the central CONUS. The low itself is expected to lift northeastward tomorrow from the Southern High Plains to the Upper Midwest which should direct most forcing north and west of our forecast area, but a spoke of the shortwave energy pivoting overhead during the afternoon and evening shows at least modest height falls over the ArkLaMiss Delta region. Without prolonged warm, moist advection in advance of this system's cold frontal passage, forecast instability is in the range of 500-1500 J/kg over northeast LA during the daylight hours tomorrow but decreasing to around 400-700 J/kg as the front moves further east into Mississippi after dark. There is a modest 40kts of deep-layer shear expected across the front, but less favorable instability suggests only low potential for pre-frontal convection to develop for discreet supercells beyond northeast LA in the afternoon hours. The primary hazards will be wind squalls with line segments into the early morning hours, heavy rainfall rates. Weak tornadoes cannot be ruled out. Heaviest rain rates could pose an isolated flash flood threat in low-lying or urban areas, but the progressive movement of the front should limit an organized flooding threat. The Marginal severe storm risk was expanded slightly to the east with this forecast cycle, and the "Limited" flash flood threat graphic was trimmed to primarily the Delta where initial rain rates and a less organized front could see the rain accumulate a little faster in the evening hours.

This weather should clear by Wednesday, but showers could linger in the wake of the front across eastern Mississippi Wednesday morning. The pattern will reinforce mostly dry weather Wednesday into early next week. Building high pressure over the weekend will push temperatures below normal across our forecast area. High temperatures Saturday through next Monday should be mostly in the mid to upper 60s or near 70 degrees, while overnight low from Friday night onwards will dip into the 30s and 40s. Frost seems likely in that time frame with any periods of particularly calm overnight winds and mostly clear skies. Will continue to monitor trends, but we are in the time of year where frost and light freeze are normal and the growing season has ended already. /NF/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

An abundance of stratus over the region will be again possible tonight, with a mix of VFR and MVFR flight categories (with TAF sites in the southeast possible IFR stratus overnight, generally after 03/07-09Z Tuesday). Improvements to VFR will come around midday Tuesday. Southeast winds persist this evening and increase into Tuesday ahead of a strong cold front. Southeast winds prevail Tuesday, increasing to around 15 to 20mph, with gusts up to 25mph (up to 30mph at GLH) through the end of the 00Z TAF period. Some light SHRA or TSRA may move into GLH before the end of the TAF period, with rain showers possible at GWO, PIB, HBG and HEZ. Timing is generally after 03/20-21Z Tuesday, with the exception of earlier light SHRA after 03/18-19Z at HBG and PIB. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 82 64 77 / 0 20 100 30 Meridian 63 80 66 78 / 0 20 90 70 Vicksburg 64 83 58 76 / 0 60 100 10 Hattiesburg 63 82 66 82 / 0 50 60 50 Natchez 66 83 60 76 / 0 60 100 10 Greenville 65 80 56 72 / 0 70 100 0 Greenwood 64 81 59 74 / 0 30 100 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.