textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts, tornadoes, and hail, along with a few locally heavy downpours, are possible into this evening.

- Wind behind the cold front will be strong and gusty later tonight into early Thursday.

- A stronger cold front is expected late Sunday into Monday, and a freeze is likely in some areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 400 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Update for today: Generally speaking, the scenario is playing out as expected with the continental northern stream cold front pushing slowly southeast through the ArkLaMiss Delta region while the southern stream shortwave trough crosses the Southern Plains and helps develop a low along the frontal boundary. The airmass has destabilized with strong daytime heating aided by capping aloft, but mid level subsidence/mixing are also limiting the potential for isolated severe storms in the warm sector. Also, low level shear vectors are oriented mostly parallel along the front where convection has been most prevalent today, and unimpressive low level flow ahead of the low is not enhancing the severe threat ahead of developing convective system crossing the Sabine River. With all of that said, if there is to be severe weather going into this evening, it will most likely be associated with more N-S oriented linear convection associated with the mesolow tracking across southern portions of the forecast area. Overall, messaging is trending down with time and becoming more suppressed to southern portions of the area. /EC/

Aside from the severe threat, average rainfall amounts around 1-2 inches are anticipated, but we could see locally higher amounts in a couple of corridors: one from north LA through the ArkLaMiss Delta area as the line of storms is initially slower while it reorganizes earlier in the day and another from south MS through east MS where there is potential for convective development ahead of the line and mergers between this convection and the line. Localized flash flooding will be possible, particularly in these areas. Additionally, a period of gusty wind is expected in the wake of the storms late this evening through early tomorrow morning. Strongest gusts are expected in the flatter Delta areas, where there could be scattered impacts, especially in areas with weakened trees.

Thursday through the weekend: Behind the front, a brief intrusion of cooler, more seasonable air will arrive by Thursday. A few areas may dip into the upper 30s Friday morning. However, this will be short lived as the surface ridge quickly shifts east of our area and southerly low level vectors return by Friday. High temps will return to the upper 70s and 80s this weekend.

Sunday into Monday: A deepening upper trough will bring another, stronger cold front through the area late Sunday into Monday. Showers will be possible ahead of the front, with a few storms possible given steep mid level lapse rates. For now, meager low level lapse rates appear likely to mitigate any severe threat. Behind this front, a big cool down is in the offing. /DL/

Monday through Tue night: Long term guidance has gradually come into agreement in showing that a freeze is likely for at least north central to northeast portions of the forecast area. As we get closer in time, confidence should increase for sub-freezing low temperatures for much of the area given H850 temperatures forecast to be ~ -6 deg C and with surface high pressure building over the area. A caveat will be the degree of high level cloudiness that could limit overnight cooling some. For now will continue to hold off on messaging of what could be a significant ag-related concern. /EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 646 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

As of 2346Z, southerly gusty winds have now shifted to the north. Northerly gusty winds will continue to develop across the CWA through this evening with gusts around 25 kts. Current radar scans show a line of thunderstorms associated with the trough/cold front moving in from the northwest towards the southeast through 06Z Thursday leading to multiple TAF sites seeing MVFR ceilings. The line of thunderstorms should clear the area by 09Z. MVFR ceilings will prevail across the entire forecast area through 12Z Thursday. Ceilings will begin to improve to VFR status by 13Z Thursday. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 44 61 38 71 / 100 0 0 0 Meridian 44 61 38 71 / 100 10 0 0 Vicksburg 43 60 38 71 / 100 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 51 66 39 75 / 100 10 0 0 Natchez 44 62 39 72 / 100 0 0 0 Greenville 41 57 40 68 / 100 0 0 0 Greenwood 41 61 40 70 / 100 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.