textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Less humid conditions early week, but heat stress returns late week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Through early next week (Monday)...

Through midweek (Wednesday): RAP/water vapor analysis indicates upper low is situated over the southeast this morning and 595DM mid level ridge over the Desert Southwest, leading to mean northerly dry flow across the Gulf Coast states. This will lock in PWs generally around one inch and low humidity aloft (i.e. 700-300mb layer humidity in the low teens to single digits) and efficient mixing. This leads to moderating temperatures: highs becoming seasonably warm into Wednesday (91F to 96F) and seasonable lows (68F to 71F this morning to 71F to 74F Wednesday night). With afternoon mixing being the norm, heat stress will remain lower, with a gradual uptick of heat index in southwestern areas (heat indices in the 102F to 105F range by tomorrow afternoon).

Late week into early next week (Thursday through next Monday): As the upper low weakens the grip over the Southeast into Thursday, low level southerly return flow and an uptick in moisture (low and deep layer moisture) will favor less efficient mixing, warmth/moist advection and increasing heat stress late week through the weekend. Temperatures will be seasonably warm (highs in the 92F to 96F range and lows in the 72F to 76F range). The region will remain in more of a large scale weakness in the flow but low level flow will help moderate in higher surface dewpoints (70F to 76F) and increasing heat stress concerns.

Even though large scale pattern is somewhat similar to what we have been observing, the key difference is the low level return moist advection and increased deepening moisture aloft (PWs in the 1.5 to 2 inch range by the weekend into early next week). Rain chances will mainly be summertime variety (diurnally induced) with isolated to at times scattered coverage (20 to 40 percent range). This pattern will not favor any noteworthy storm threat, but a few scattered stronger gusty storms with locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out, especially later into the weekend.

Main hazard weather concern remains increasing heat stress into the weekend. This still remains several days out, with most likely areawide concerns from Friday onward. Holding off mention in HWO this forecast cycle, but will likely get a point of needing HWO graphics and heat headlines. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites throughout the 12Z TAF period the next 24 hours. Some shallow BR remain possible at a few sites, but confidence remains too low to introduce at this time. /DC/KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 71 95 72 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 92 72 94 72 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 94 71 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 72 96 73 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 95 72 96 73 / 0 0 10 0 Greenville 93 70 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 92 70 95 72 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.