textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern, especially this weekend into early next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper low continues to spin over North MS this evening. Convection in convergent bands surrounding this feature has decreased in overall coverage and intensity with the loss of daytime heating and the exhaustion of instability in areas that have received more rainfall. However, isolated to scattered showers and isolated storms will remain possible overnight as the upper low remains nearby with 2+ inch PWs over much of the area. The flash flood potential is now decreasing, with REFS QPF PMMs maxing out around 1-2" through the remainder of tonight into Wednesday. A few forecast parameters were adjusted to account for current observational trends, but no other changes are planned for the near term. /DL/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The upper low will bring one more day of the potential of heavy rainfall across portions of the area today. With PWATS of around 2.2 inches along with the upper low, we are advertising an elevated risk for flash flooding for much of the area this afternoon into the early evening. The upper low will retrograde westward tonight into Wednesday and weaken. There will continue to be chances of storms Wednesday afternoon, especially for areas north of I-20, but expect flash flooding concerns to be limited./15/

Thursday into early next week (Monday): Ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances (less than 20 percent and likely on the periphery of the region until Sunday to Monday) across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the mid 90s next weekend. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period, some 3F to 6F above (73F to 76F). Increasing heat stress still looks to be a concern. HWO heat graphics will likely be needed, likely Friday through next Monday. With ongoing rain concerns and cooler temperatures, holding off introduction in HWO graphics for now but will likely be needed in subsequent forecast cycles. /DC/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Scattered to numerous SHRA and TS continue across the region this evening, but will decrease in most areas through tonight. A low stratus deck and patchy fog are possible across parts of central MS and southeast AR overnight through early Wed morning. Scattered SHRA and TS activity are possible again Wed afternoon. Outside of these concerns, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with light wind. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 88 71 91 / 70 30 20 0 Meridian 70 88 70 91 / 50 20 20 0 Vicksburg 70 88 71 91 / 50 40 20 0 Hattiesburg 71 90 72 94 / 20 10 20 0 Natchez 70 89 71 92 / 10 30 10 0 Greenville 71 87 71 91 / 70 60 10 0 Greenwood 70 87 71 91 / 60 60 20 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.