textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible over western portions of the area this evening.

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

In the near term, the threat for severe weather has diminished some with most guidance showing a more limited shear/thermodynamic environment as a convective system over the ArkLaTex region makes its way toward northwestern portions of our area. The shear/boundary relationship is less than ideal for getting severe weather with this system, however, if storms develop in the increasing low level warm advection during peak ahead of the system, then those storms could move in more favorable direction to take advantage of the low level shear and bring some gusty winds. With all of that said, we've removed the slight risk and trimmed back the marginal risk area some based on the latest guidance.

Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather is setting up for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern sets up over the CONUS. In the big picture, this will bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift and help initiate multiple rounds of convective rainfall. Given that precipitation efficiency will be high, we'll need to monitor for potential heavy rainfall threat areas where deep convection can persist the longest.

SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep layer moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

As of 1729Z, all TAF sites are reporting VFR ceilings to start off the period. VFR conditions will prevail across the forecast area through 06Z. After 06Z, SHRA/TSRA will move into the area from the nw during the evening and will spread over central and northern sites resulting in MVFR/IFR ceilings. South TAF sites will see flight conditions drop to MVFR/IFR/LIFR by 09Z. Poor flying conditions will prevail across the south through 14Z. After 14Z, ceilings will begin to improve to VFR across south TAF sites. MVFR/IFR conditions will prevail across central/northern sites through 15Z. After 15Z, ceilings will slowly begin to improve to VFR conditions. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 71 86 69 86 / 60 70 50 70 Meridian 70 88 68 88 / 20 30 30 40 Vicksburg 71 85 69 84 / 70 70 70 80 Hattiesburg 70 89 68 88 / 10 40 20 50 Natchez 72 86 70 86 / 60 60 60 80 Greenville 71 84 68 83 / 80 80 70 80 Greenwood 71 85 69 84 / 70 80 60 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.