textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with a warming trend expected through Tuesday.

- Thunderstorm chances and the potential for severe weather return Tuesday into Wednesday.

- Locally heavy rainfall possible Wednesday into Thursday, with some drought relief expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

This week through the weekend...

This morning through mid to late week (Thursday): Quiet period to start the week before rain and storm potential peak up in the mid to late week period (Wednesday to Thursday). Low level ridge over the Gulf Coast will shift eastward today through Tuesday. Early this morning, northwesterly flow and dry thermal profiles support only high cirrus streaming across the region today. Seasonable high temperatures are expected (78F to 82F), with dewpoints mixing out into the upper 40s to mid 50s. Cannot rule out some patchy fog this morning in the Pine Belt where decoupling and near calm winds reside, but no concern to introduce in HWO. As low level ridge (850mb high) shifts east, southwesterly return flow will begin to bring an uptick in moist advection and thermal moist profiles back into the area from west to east. This will be in advance of a midweek frontal system. Synoptics will consist of a mean longwave trough, stretched from the base into the Desert Southwest to Baja Peninsula all the way across the Intermountain West, central to northern Plains and into the Great Lakes to into Canada. Strengthened subtropical ridging over the Gulf will keep the base of the trough lagging to the southwest. This will help drive moisture and rain chances back in beginning Tuesday afternoon and really picking up midweek. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a Marginal risk for areas in the northwest, which is likely focused for the Tuesday evening timeframe in the Delta. Will go ahead and advertise this low probabilistic threat as shear profiles begin to increase beginning Tuesday evening, with increased likelihood into Wednesday. Seasonable warmth will really pick up Tuesday into Tuesday night, with the aforementioned nighttime temperatures peaking some 8F to 12F above normal. Highs peak around the low to mid 80s (82F to 87F). Rain chances pick up around to after midnight Tuesday into Wednesday (20 to 55 percent) northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. The front will sag southward into Wednesday, with increased deep layer shear (35 to 65kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers, respectively) and steepening lapse rates and destabilization (mid level lapse rates of 7 to 7.5 deg C, vertical totals of 25C to 27C and MLCAPE around 1500 to 2500 J/kg). Storm mode with predominately unidirectional shear profiles could be supercell to splitting cell/multicell variety, so all modes of severe weather cannot be ruled out, with large hail and damaging winds the main concerns, especially for areas that remain south of the frontal zone. Some convection looks to be anafrontal, which would limit it to more hail. Kept mention of Slight in HWO graphics for Wednesday, while refining the modes of hazards possible.

Deep moisture will peak Wednesday into Thursday (around 2 inch precipitable water), which could lead to some locally heavy downpours). Probabilities of rainfall totals exceeding 3 to 4 inches are reasonable (30 to 55 percent greater than 3 inches and 20 to 40 percent greater than 4 inches). Holding off mention of flash flooding in HWO graphics due to recent drought but if these totals occur over a short duration, a Limited may be needed in future forecast cycles.

Seasonable conditions persist Wednesday and extending into the overnight hours. Rain and storm coverage Wednesday will remain high (35 to 55 percent southeast of the Natchez Trace, 55 to 75 percent along the Natchez Trace and up to 85 percent in the Delta to Highway 82 corridor). Rain totals will be decent in some areas (generally under an inch along and southeast of Natchez Trace to around an inch or higher to the northwest). As the trough swings eastward, the base of the trough will cutoff near the Baja Peninsula to Sierra Madres, leaving a southward sagging frontal zone. Rain and storm coverage remain the highest along and southeast of the Natchez Trace, similar to Wednesday but shifting southeast. Rain totals will be highest southeast of the Natchez Trace, while less to the northwest. Rain totals could reach a touch higher Thursday (around an inch and a quarter to an inch and a half). Rain totals through Thursday approach around 2 inches, which should continue to help our ongoing rainfall deficits and drought. Temperatures will be seasonably cool during this wet period on Thursday, some 8F to 12F below (66F to 71F northwest of the Natchez Trace while 72F to 78F to the southeast).

Late week through this weekend (Friday through Sunday): Rain chances begin to shift southeast into late week. Synoptic and surface features will consist of shearing out shortwave energy near the International Border with frontal zone shifting southeast. This will keep some rain chances along the Natchez Trace through before daybreak Friday but clearing out of the corridor and into the Pine Belt to Highway 84 to Interstate 59 corridor through the day. Seasonable cool conditions persist, some 5F to 8F below (72F to 78F for highs and 48F to 56F for lows Friday morning), while seasonable Friday night (low to mid 50s east of Interstate 55 to mid to upper 50s elsewhere). Confidence in shortwave energy ejecting across the International Border through the ArkLaTex is in question into next weekend, with drastically different depictions of rain coverage during this time. For now, rain coverage may pick up in future forecast cycles but remain on the low probabilistic side (15 to 25 percent). Temperature forecast become more seasonable as return flow gradually shifts around into the weekend (highs in upper 70s to low 80s and lows in upper 50s to low 60s). /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 515 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Very benign conditions persist throughout all TAF sites today. As of 5am only low lying areas are seeing shallow mist, with visibilities maintaining VFR. In any event, no TAF sites are effected and are not going to be in the near future. We will see a slight pick up in our wind speeds in our northwestern corridor this afternoon with GLH seeing 20015G23KT this afternoon and GWO seeing some winds above ten knots. Altogether a very nice day for any aviation operations./OAJ/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 80 58 83 67 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 80 53 83 64 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 80 60 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 80 55 84 64 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 80 59 85 68 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 80 63 84 67 / 0 10 10 40 Greenwood 80 60 82 67 / 0 10 20 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.