textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue this week.

- Low potential for strong to severe storms and heavy rainfall this weekend.

- Colder air will arrive late this weekend and persist through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Tonight through Thursday: Upper level ridging will persist this week and maintain a seasonably warm return flow pattern. Daytime temperatures have been lower than would normally be expected in this anomalously warm scenario due to considerable coverage of low stratus in the moisture trapped beneath a strong inversion. Most guidance remain bullish on additional stratus development through Thursday, and this will limit the potential for getting record highs it would seem. While unlikely, should skies clear out, afternoon temperatures could easily soar into the lower 80s, especially Thursday.

Late week through early next week: The ridge flattens and breaks down late week as we transition to a SW flow regime. Guidance continues the trend towards a less amplified pattern, with instead subtle shortwaves embedded in SW flow. This should support a wetter pattern for late week. Nothing in particular stands out at the moment in terms of flood risk, especially given dry antecedent conditions, but would keep an eye out for heavy rain with anomalous moisture and persistent rainfall with disturbances moving along the stalled boundary and lack of airmass change. The axis of greatest totals at this time appears to be northwest of the Natchez Trace.

A more stout shortwave Saturday could carry the potential for severe with a greater low level response. Moisture is sufficient amid a strongly sheared environment south of I-20, so would not rule out the potential for a future convective outlook for Saturday. That said, there's disagreement in the guidance regarding the evolution of this feature. Will closely monitor.

The associated cold front pushes out and ushers in drier, colder air by late weekend into early next week. There are increasing chances for sub-freezing temperatures, including chances for getting below 28 F. After the fairly warm stretch that we've had recently, this could pose some ag-related threats. As of now, the cold is not expected to reach dangerous thresholds. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1128 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Extensive MVFR to IFR stratus cover persists late this morning. While improvements are expected to continue into the afternoon, with most sites reaching VFR, a VFR cloud deck is expected to persist in most areas. Ceilings are expected to lower again in most areas late tonight into Wed morning, with MVFR to IFR ceilings. Patchy fog is also possible again around daybreak mainly across south MS. Southerly winds may gust to around 20-25 kt at times through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 57 73 61 78 / 0 0 10 10 Meridian 55 74 60 79 / 0 0 10 10 Vicksburg 57 74 60 78 / 0 0 10 10 Hattiesburg 57 77 62 82 / 0 0 10 20 Natchez 58 77 62 80 / 0 0 10 10 Greenville 57 71 60 75 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 57 72 61 76 / 0 0 10 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.