textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- "Marginal Risk" (Level 1 of 5) of isolated severe storms for the entire portions of the area Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Today through Saturday...A weakening outflow boundary dropping south through the forecast area will continue to be responsible for sparking a short-lived shower or storm across areas mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor through day break. During the afternoon and evening hours, a frontal boundary sinking into the region from the north will yield more scattered to widespread showers and storms across the CWA. Due to the very humid and unstable environment across the region during this time, in addition to some steep mid-level lapse rates (6-6.3 C/km), isolated severe storms will be possible, with damaging wind gusts being the primary concern with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent lightening can both be expected with any of today's convection.

While this frontal boundary will eventually washout, due to the overall troughing/low pressure pattern over the region, combined with the continued humid and unstable airmass each day, solid chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast into at least Wednesday. While severe storms currently aren't forecast after today, given the again overall setup across the region, a few storms could become intense enough Monday through Wednesday to produce some gusty winds. Once again, both heavy downpours and frequent lightning can be expected with any convection.

Finally, Thursday into the start of next weekend, ridging aloft will again reassert itself over the region. While this will lessen the overall rain chances across the forecast area, the trade-off currently looks to be a return to hot humid conditions as highs areawide eventually climb back into the middle 90s Saturday. This also currently looks to bring back some concern for increased heat stress yet again during this extended portion of the forecast. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 654 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

A few showers are ongoing across the Hwy 82 corridor, with VFR flight categories prevailing elsewhere. A brief reduction of to MVFR/IFR flight categorical status remains possible from convection being observed within an area TAF sites respected aerodrome. Convection will be more scattered to widespread across the area this afternoon as a surface boundary sinks south into the area. An isolated severe storm capable of producing damaging wind gust will be possible with the most intense storms. Heavy downpours and frequent light can also be expected. This of course will again result in a degradation of flight categories if observed on-station. Convection will wind down at the latest 13/02-04Z Monday. Wind overnight will be calm to light from the southwest. These will increase by late morning in the westerly to northwesterly direction, sustained and gusts generally less than 10mph. Some MVFR/IFR stratus after 13/07-09Z Monday is possible at most sites, outside of GLH and GWO. A few rain showers cannot be ruled out prior to daybreak as well. /DC/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 73 87 71 / 50 60 60 40 Meridian 92 72 87 71 / 60 70 60 50 Vicksburg 91 73 88 71 / 60 70 60 20 Hattiesburg 93 73 84 72 / 50 60 80 30 Natchez 91 73 86 71 / 60 60 90 30 Greenville 90 73 90 72 / 50 30 30 10 Greenwood 90 72 91 71 / 40 30 40 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.