textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

In the near term, a weak MCV has been anchoring a general zone of shower/storm development today that is mainly focused along the I-55 corridor, and this scenario should continue for the next few hours, until about sunset. Given a very precip efficient airmass with seasonably high precipitable water ~ 2 inches and high/deep RH, there are pockets of locally heavy rainfally, and localized flash flooding could develop where small areas of convergence can persist. Much of the guidance has a similar setup Thursday with a weak MCV during peak heating in a very moist airmass, and this setup could once again focus localized areas of heavy rainfall. After a few days of rainfall, ground conditions are becoming more favorable for flash flooding, so will go ahead and message for a limited flash flood threat.

Looking ahead, an unusually long duration of wet weather will continue for the foreseeable future as a large and persistent trough to ridge longwave pattern remains anchored over the CONUS. This will continue to bring our region a steady stream of subtropical moisture with seasonably high precipitable water values, and multiple upper level perturbations that will provide lift and help initiate additional rounds of convective rainfall. At some point this weekend, a greater threat for flash flooding could evolve with guidance showing greater areas of lift/instability interacting with the very moist air, and we'll need to monitor for this.

Otherwise, it appears the thermodynamic/shear profiles will not be particularly favorable for severe weather concerns given the deep moisture and influence from the southeast CONUS ridge. As previously mentioned it's difficult to find an end to this wet pattern in the guidance through most of the remainder of the month. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Multiple TAF sites are reporting MVFR/VFR ceilings as of 1728Z to start off the period. Isolated to scattered -TSRA will develop this afternoon and spread into east and southeast MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 02Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. After 07Z MVFR cigs wl develop over most TAF sites and lower to IFR/LIFR by 10Z. IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail across the area through 16Z Thursday. After 16Z, ceilings will begin to improve to a mixture of MVFR/VFR. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 68 84 69 82 / 40 70 80 100 Meridian 68 86 69 82 / 40 50 60 100 Vicksburg 68 84 69 82 / 40 70 80 90 Hattiesburg 70 86 70 82 / 40 60 60 100 Natchez 68 85 70 82 / 40 70 80 100 Greenville 66 82 68 81 / 30 50 90 90 Greenwood 67 84 68 82 / 40 50 90 100

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.