textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet pattern will continue through the extended period.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 936 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Earlier showers and thunderstorms are shifting south of the forecast area tonight, but the overall environment is still soupy and unstable. Boundaries galore dot the region, leftover from various clusters of thunderstorms. And residual vorticity maxima could trigger renewed convection overnight. The latest HRRR runs for example keep highlighting the region between the Interstate 20 and Interstate 10 corridors through Louisiana for devleopment tonight into Saturday. Then scattered showers and storms again with daytime heating around the forecast area through the afternoon tomorrow. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Through Saturday: Early afternoon surface analysis had a cold front dropping south of our Highway 82 corridor as was overtaking an old stalled boundary that was draped across our delta region extending east southeast across central and east central Mississippi. Convection was noted firing along the old boundary and ahead of the cold front. Just to our west regional radars showed a line of storms over southwest Arakansas and northwest Louisiana associated with a shortwave and an MCV. All this convective activity is expected to merge over our CWA this afternoon and continue to spread east southeast this evening before gradually dissipating. Isolated severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts will be possible generally south of the Highway 82 corridor. These storms will also bring the threat for locally heavy rainfall. Considering the antecedent conditions and river flooding across our CWA, flash flooding will be likely in spots generally south of Highway 82 but our southeast remains the most vulnerable due to the recent flooding rainfall. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect through this evening. In addition, the warm and very moist airmass over our CWA with PWATs greater than two inches, has combined with temperatures in the lower 90s to result in peak heat index values above 105F across our southwest this afternoon. A Heat advisory remains in effect for that area until this evening. The cold front is expected to stall across the central portions of our CWA by morning. Although most of the convection will see a distinct diurnal trend additional rainfall will be possible through the night as the stalled cold front will remain a focus for redevelopment. Guidance suggests an early start Saturday to convection. This early start is expected to hold temperatures down even in our south so heat stress will be less of a concern. Rainfall rates with Saturday's convection is expected to be lower and although we will not extend the Flash Flood Watch this forecast package, flooding will remain a concern due to the antecedent conditions and continued river flooding. /22/

Through Thursday: Sunday: The wet pattern will continue as a shortwave trough moves over the Lower MS River Valley and interacts with the stalled frontal boundary over our CWA through Sunday. CAM models suggest the formation of couple of MCSs near TX/AR that will head towards our area. With the previous rainfall, saturated soil, and storm training, flooding will remain a concern.

Monday through Thursday: High pressure over AZ/NM and northern Mexico and longwave troughing over the Great Lakes/Ohio Region will set up the next chances for rain. Multiple shortwave disturbances are expected to traverse over our CWA with additional rounds of wet weather for the duration of week. Chances for severe weather can't be ruled out, however, nothing has been outlooked at this time. /SW/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1259 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR flight conditions at the start of the period as showers/storms dissipate over sites. Patchy fog will be possible during the overnight hours along with increasing low stratus; resulting in MVFR flight conditions through the morning. After 12Z, showers may be possible; however, VFR flight conditions are expected to prevail through the period. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 87 73 89 76 / 80 40 60 0 Meridian 85 72 88 75 / 90 40 60 0 Vicksburg 88 74 89 76 / 70 40 60 0 Hattiesburg 89 75 89 77 / 80 40 40 0 Natchez 90 75 90 77 / 70 40 50 0 Greenville 86 73 89 76 / 70 40 60 10 Greenwood 86 73 89 76 / 80 40 70 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.