textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Some severe storms remain possible this evening in the upper Delta region, with isolated severe storms possible elsewhere.

- Seasonal temps (highs: low/mid 80s & lows: ranging in the 60s) and dry air will follow post frontal boundary Tuesday night.

- Rain potential will return over the weekend

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 924 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Rest of Tonight...A very moist and unstable airmass remains across the area, with numerous outflow boundaries meandering about from convection that developed late this afternoon. As a result, some threat for severe storms remains across much of the forecast area through at least midnight tonight. Particularly across the upper Delta region which missed out on the earlier convection, and thus has an airmass that's not been overturned. The most intense storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, along with hail up to the size of quarters. After midnight and through the remainder of the overnight hours, as heating and instability wane, the threat for severe storms will likewise subside. Although, some isolated convection bubbling up across the area through Tuesday morning will remain possible.

Overall, the ongoing forecast is in good shape. I'll make some adjustments to hourly elements of the forecast based on current trends. With the expiration of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 261 earlier at 00Z, mention of it was removed from products at that time. Otherwise, no further changes will be made to the forecast on this evening's update. /19/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Through Tuesday: Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a mid level ridge axis to our west that was resulting in a northwest flow across the CWA. This northwest flow was supporting an MCS moving south across northern Alabama. The western portions of this MCS was spreading into our northeast most zones. Severe storms capable of damaging wind gusts and some hail will be possible with this activity this afternoon. Elsewhere across the CWA microburst pulse severe storms are possible as local microburst checklist showed microbursts will be likely this afternoon considering the anticipated atmospheric parameters. In addition latest guidance still showed additional development across the northern portions of our CWA this evening along the boundary leftover by the current MCS. The main threat for severe through this evening will remain damaging wind gusts although hail and locally heavy downpours. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for our northeast this afternoon but an additional Watch or an expansion of the current Watch is possible this evening due to the potential of more organized convection dropping through our CWA. In addition, with the heat and humidity across the CWA away from convection, peak heat index values will be around 105F in may areas this afternoon. This area is outside of our northeast due to the ongoing convection.

It's possible the convection tonight will last past midnight across the southern portions of our CWA. Tuesday a >1028mb high will drop out of Canada and become centered over the Great Lakes region. This will bring cooler and drier air into the northern portions of our CWA. This will result in the highest heat indices and greatest rain chances across our southern zones Tuesday afternoon. /22/

Tuesday Night through Sunday:

Once the trough shifts south, the frontal boundary will push through the region Tuesday afternoon. Drier air will provide relief from the heat over the last few days as high/low temps feel closer to early June (near seasonal average). High pressure will settle over the Great Lakes, traversing southward over the week and provide a ridging pattern for our region. Heading into the weekend, the high will shift towards the east, winds will shift to the south/southeast, increasing humidity across the area. With increasing humidity, 40-75% rain chances return over the weekend with the greatest chances in the south/southwestern portion of the ArkLaMiss region. /SW/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 122 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through 12Z Tuesday morning, VCTS/TSRA will cause some brief lowering of categories at northern TAF sites across the next several hours. By 12Z low stratus and patchy fog will be possible causing MVFR/IFR conditions until 15Z, thereafter VFR conditions will prevail. Scattered convection will again be possible Tuesday afternoon for TAF sites mainly along and south of the Interstate 20 corridor late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will generally subside to calm this evening and overnight, except in and around thunderstorms where gusty winds can be expected. Winds on Tuesday will generally be from the north between 5-10 mph./KP/19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 90 68 82 64 / 40 10 0 0 Meridian 89 66 81 60 / 40 10 0 0 Vicksburg 90 69 84 66 / 30 10 10 0 Hattiesburg 91 68 81 62 / 60 30 20 0 Natchez 92 70 85 67 / 50 20 10 0 Greenville 88 66 84 66 / 30 0 0 0 Greenwood 88 65 84 63 / 20 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.