textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog are occuring this morning but will burn off by mid morning.

- There is a slight severe storm risk now for portions of the area Sunday into Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tonight through Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage this afternoon through this evening as near term guidance shows the cold front moving south across our forecast area. In terms of the overall environment, low-level shear isn't really all that impressive, but there is just enough deep layer for storms to reach severe criteria, especially storms that interact with the environment ahead of the line. With that in mind, confidence regarding the evolution of this system is murky at best. It does appear that the area that will have the better severe wx potential for later this afternoon/Monday morning will likely be west of I-55. A few minor changes were made to the severe graphic for today and the "Slight" risk (Level 2 out of 5) was slightly decreased in coverage from the north. Outside of that minor change, the severe graphic over all remains the same with primary hazards begin damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. The timing for the severe potential for our CWA still looks to be 4pm through Monday morning.

A few of these storms have the capability to produce locally heavy downpours at times. A quick look at the 12Z SPC Ensemble Viewer guidance does show a noticeable QPF signal south of Hwy 84. With that in mind, the best area for localized flash flooding looks to be in the Pine Belt. Confidence in flooding is not as much as before and we dropped the local HWO graphic.

Storm chances will continue looking ahead into early Monday morning as the cold front continues to push south across our area. By this point, any storm will be well below severe criteria. HREF fog guidance is showing low probabilities (20-30%) of patchy dense for southern portions of our area. To accommodate this, a "Limited" threat for dense patchy fog has been introduce mainly for southeast portions of our CWA. Isolated showers and storms will continue heading into Monday afternoon with showers finally coming to an end by Monday evening. Some stronger storms in the Pine Belt cannot be ruled out. Quiet conditions will prevail across our area Monday night as the front finally exits our area. Nighttime lows will dip into the low/mid 60s. /CR/

Tuesday through Sunday...

Not much to talk about for the long term period. Quiet weather conditions will persist across the southeast CONUS though the mid week as sfc ridging keeps us dry. Long term guidance is showing a dry cold front tracking southward on Wednesday which will cause our daytime highs to briefly drop into the lower 80s areawide. Heading into the late week, the front will continue to track southward towards the Gulf allowing for temperatures to rebound in the mid 80s. Quiet and dry conditions will continue heading into the weekend with afternoon highs peaking in mid to upper 80s. /CR/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As of 1727Z, multiple sites are seeing a mixture of VFR/MVFR ceilings to start off the TAF period. MVFR ceilings will prevail across several sites through 19Z. After 19Z, ceilings will begin to improve to VFR conditions. VFR conditions will prevail across the area through 04Z Monday. After 04Z, isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will move into the area from the west. MVFR/IFR/LIFR ceilings will prevail across the area between 08Z-15Z Monday due to low stratus and patchy fog. After 15Z Monday, ceilings will improve to MVFR. MVFR ceilings will prevail across our area through 22Z. After 22Z, ceilings will further improve to VFR. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 77 59 81 / 40 50 10 0 Meridian 63 79 57 81 / 40 40 10 0 Vicksburg 65 76 58 81 / 60 50 10 0 Hattiesburg 64 82 61 82 / 20 60 20 0 Natchez 66 78 61 82 / 50 50 10 0 Greenville 63 75 56 80 / 70 50 0 0 Greenwood 63 76 56 82 / 70 40 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.