textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong cold front will bring a variety of impacts to the area as we finish up the week and go into early next week.

- There is a limited threat for strong wind preceding and following the front, and a line of strong to severe storms containing damaging wind gusts is expected Sunday night.

- Much colder air moving in Monday will bring a significant freeze threat to portions of the area Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

High pressure will control our weather for much of the weekend, staying dry through early Sunday. The surface high will shift east of the area this morning and shift surface winds from the south. As a result, dewpoints will gradually recover into the upper 50s to near 60 by early Sunday. A stout upper trough will support a rapidly deepening surface low across the plains and its attendant surface cold front continues to be the focus for our next round of hazards. Strong pressure falls and rises either side of the front in association with this dynamic system will result in a strong gradient wind threat both ahead of and in the wake of storms Sunday night. Given increased confidence for impacts both Sunday and Monday, have opted to message areawide limited threat for both days for wind in HWO. The strong forcing and shear, along with sufficient instability along the front will support a forced squall line Sunday night, and a slight/marginal risk continues to be messaged for this. That said, there are some failure modes to consider. Moisture return is weak, and this is a situation where moisture/instability will be enhanced right along the front, greatly limiting convection ahead of the line. Furthermore, a first glance into available CAM guidance at this time suggests the line quickly weakens as it rapidly moves east with waning instability. Eastern extent of severe threat is questionable. All things considered, the primary hazards appear to be wind/tornado, particularly with any segments orthogonal to the low level shear vector. Shear is better aligned relative to the line on the north side of the line, however this is misaligned with greatest instability further south. Considering forcing, instability need only be sufficient. That said, the threat window appears shorter further north.

In the wake of the cold front, a canadian surface high will usher in a cooler airmass and will promote freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning. Confidence has increased in areawide impacts, especially considering the recent record warmth, with highs in the 80s also expected Sunday ahead of this freeze. Impacts to unprotected sensitive vegetation are likely. Will continue to message in HWO. Temperatures will gradually warm mid to late next week with building heights over the region. Highs will rise back above seasonal norms with highs in the upper 70s and low 80s by Friday. A strong midlevel high over the desert southwest will keep northerly flow over our area which will maintain dry conditions. /SAS/EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Localized river valley fog is impacting MEI this morning. It should dissipate shortly after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated through the TAF period. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 71 46 76 57 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 71 44 77 53 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 71 47 77 56 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 74 46 80 57 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 72 47 77 57 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 67 46 75 56 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 70 48 78 57 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.