textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet weather and cool temperatures will settle into the forecast area through Saturday.

- Moderate to heavy rainfall is possible at times across portions of southern and southeastern Mississippi through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Our persistent low stratus deck has finally thinned and mixed out across most of the forecast area. Temperatures will continue to warm into the 40s and 50s this afternoon, then drop into the 30s for most places overnight. While low-level moisture this afternoon has mixed out, the next surge of moisture is not far off.

A strengthening jet stream oriented from West Texas to New England will keep broad synoptic scale lift in place over the Gulf Coast and Deep South regions through the end of this week. Pattern will favor steady rainfall in rounds as upper-level disturbances moving through the flow aloft enhance mid-level frontogenesis. PWAT values over the Northern Gulf are expected to be around 1.5+ inches. Values in this range are above the 90th percentile for our forecast area, so moisture transport will be efficient and some heavy rain is possible. The plume will mostly be south of our area but will extend across mainly the Pine Belt area of southeast Mississippi. Expectation is that between tonight and the daytime Saturday, average rainfall amounts will be about 1 to 2.5 inches for areas south of Interstate 20, and about 1/4 inch to 1 inch for areas north of Interstate 20. A reasonable upper range for rainfall for areas along and south of the US Highway 84 corridor in southern Mississippi would be localized amounts up to around 4 inches.

This pattern into the weekend will keep temps fairly stable between mostly 40s and 50s. Then Sunday into next week, the pattern will shift. The upper-level trough will begin to pivot eastward, and drier northwesterly flow aloft will set up across the country. A reinforcing cold front and surface high pressure will push through the eastern CONUS through the early week. Monday night appears to be our coolest of the next 7 days, with the potential for temperatures to drop below freezing (down to the mid 20s or so) with that air mass. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Stratus is finally eroding across the region this morning, as high clouds are beginning to stream northeast into the region. This is allowing for a return to VFR flight categories at most area TAF sites. Unfortunately, this won't last long as stratus yet again will encompass the area overnight into Thursday as the next weather system moves into the region. This will again result in degrading flight categories to MVFR/IFR status as rain moves back into the area by day break Thursday. Winds today will be light between 3-5 knots with an easterly component, but they'll become more northerly between 5-10 knots early Thursday morning as a strengthening area of surface low pressure begins lifting northeast from the western Gulf of America toward the central gulf coast. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 37 50 42 50 / 60 90 90 50 Meridian 34 49 39 51 / 30 90 100 70 Vicksburg 39 49 40 50 / 80 100 90 40 Hattiesburg 40 53 45 56 / 60 100 100 80 Natchez 41 51 41 50 / 90 100 90 50 Greenville 38 46 37 46 / 60 90 80 20 Greenwood 35 48 39 49 / 50 80 90 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.