textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return this afternoon. Severe storms, including heavy rainfall, remain a concern early Friday into Friday night.

- Much cooler temperatures by Sunday. Likely frost and freeze early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 110 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Through mid next week...

Update: Much of the previous forecast still remains on track, so have opted to maintain previous discussion. Rain and storm chances gradually increase tonight amid persistent SW flow. The main update is greater emphasis on messaging of flash flood potential, as latest guidance has trended upward. In light of this, have introduced an elevated area to HWO graphic and have opted to issue a corresponding flash flood watch. Initial round of convective rainfall associated with SW flow/isentropic ascent Friday morning will carry some risk of flash flooding, therefore have included Jackson metro in flash flood watch. A second, possibly more potent round is anticipated further south and east Friday evening as the Latest CAM guidance indicates an uptick in LLJ, resulting in a convergence zone in the vicinity of the I-20 and I-59 corridors. Thinking this is when flash flood potential will be maximized as a plume of moisture/theta e surges northward. Flash flood potential will be greatest in areas that receive rain from the intial round and in areas of training storms./SAS/

Lead wave will eject into the Midwest into tonight, helping strong surface cyclogenesis (990mb surface low/frontal system) to take shape. This will help tighten the pressure gradient (6 to 10mb) and some afternoon gusts to peak near 30mph. There continues to be some overnight severe potential (35 to 55kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers) and MLCAPE (200 to 500 J/kg). To not add to confusion with the Friday graphic, combined messaging to the Friday severe graphic to notate pre-dawn isolated strong to severe convection along and northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Hazards look to be damaging winds and a tornado cannot be ruled out during this timeframe.

As the lead wave swings into the Great Lakes, trailing southern spoke/cold core will be diving into the Desert SW to TX to OK Panhandles into Friday. There could ongoing convection that will persist through the day, with limited gaps in coverage in the afternoon hours. As the wave to the west builds east to the day, ascent will enhance, helping coverage to become more scattered and severe potential to increase. There will be sufficient shear and lapse rates/destabilization for all modes of severe weather during this time (40 to 55kts in the 0-3km and 0-6km layers and 25C to 27C vertical totals and 500 to 1000 MLCAPE). Limited forcing, height falls and frontal features lessen confidence of convective initiation (CI) area but spreading out to more scattered coverage. With potential there could be multiple rounds and some indications of further south CI towards the instability gradient, which limited forced events typically do, some severe potential in the northwest Delta comes into question while increases confidence in the Pine Belt to Interstate 59 corridor. Timing was pushed back earlier to predawn hours but most likely more scattered in the afternoon, likely after 3PM Friday and going through at least midnight. If northward moisture return is hampered by a confluent axis, this will lessen the duration of severe potential. Based on that, most severe concern will wind down around midnight and less confident afterwards. Damaging winds gusts and a tornado or two and some small hail can't be ruled out. With being in more of the convective allowing model (CAM) window, there remains some decent clockwise curved hodographs in the morning hours and some potential later in the afternoon. Even though the morning may have limited thunder, a stronger low-level jet may support comparable tornado potential to even the afternoon to evening hours. Tornado potential will be maximized in any isolated supercell storms or line orthogonal northeast bowing segments.

Broad southwesterly flow and moist advection will drive PWs into the 1.7 to 1.9 range, 850mb dewpoints near 14C/Theta E near 330K. This will drive broad training and rainfall accumulation totals. Maddox conceptual model still fits the mean synoptic and surface pattern. Some locally heavy rainfall may be possible along and southeast of the Natchez Trace corridor. CAM guidance indicate some striping of QPF either just north of the Natchez Trace to as far southeast as the Pine Belt to Interstate 59 corridor. There is support in HREF prob match mean of rainfall totals in excess of 3 inches (30 percent) and LPMM and CAM totals in excess of 4 to 7 inches near or in our southeast areas. With potential multiple rounds, this could set up prime antecedent conditions for localized flooding. Even if the earlier rounds don't flood, training could set up favorably for flooding into the afternoon hours. Based on that, we expanded the Limited HWO graphic south and southeast to include the rest of the area. Localized 3 to 6 inches are possible. Recent dryness limits confidence of earlier onset of flooding but continued confluent axes could prime localized antecedent conditions for flooding into the day. WPC expanded their earlier Slight and mention these areas in the southeast as well. Lastly, some heavy rainfall rates of 2 to 3 inches an hour are possible, which will be a concern for confluent training zones. Expect any storms and convection to persist through Saturday morning, with limited flooding concerns after midnight through daybreak Saturday.

This weekend into mid next week (Saturday into next Wednesday):

Rain chances will move through the day Saturday, gradually ushering in cooler and more seasonable conditions. Strong surface high (i.e.~1035mb) will dive southward, stretching across the Gulf Coast to ArkLaTex to Mid South region into early next week. A likely freeze into the following work week on Monday and Tuesday mornings. NBM probabilities exceed potential for a decent freeze into the following week (60 to 95 percent below freezing and 40 to 80 percent below 28F). This seasonably cool pattern will be short lived as shortwave ridging and moderation build into the mid next week. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1223 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

VFR conditions were being observed across the south while MVFR/IFR cigs continued cntrl and north. Cigs are expected to improve to VFR by 20Z. VFR conditions along with a gusty wind to 20kts wl prevail after 20Z and continue this evening. After 06Z -SHRA and MVFR cigs wl develop over the area. Cigs wl lower to IFR and -SHRA coverage will increase by 12Z and prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 65 74 59 68 / 80 90 100 50 Meridian 63 73 62 71 / 60 90 100 70 Vicksburg 64 75 56 65 / 70 80 100 30 Hattiesburg 66 78 65 73 / 60 90 100 80 Natchez 66 78 58 68 / 70 90 100 40 Greenville 65 71 54 59 / 60 60 90 20 Greenwood 64 73 55 63 / 70 70 100 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday evening for MSZ038-039-043>046-048>052-054>058-062>066-072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.