textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few thunderstorms return to the area on Friday.

- After a brief cool down for the weekend, a significant warm- up is expected next week with temperatures returning to well above normal values.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Rest of tonight...

Surface analysis indicate surface high situated over the Gulf. Flow aloft in upper air analysis and water vapor imagery indicate troughiness and northwest flow persisting but progged to gradually shift more westerly into the overnight hours. This will help bring some increased moist convergence and precipitable water climbing (0.4 inches currently to 1.0 to 1.3 inches by daybreak Friday). Southwesterly ascent from a fast moving shortwave will bring widespread cloudiness overnight and some light rain showers west of I-55 into the northwest Delta through daybreak. Blended guidance looks good on lows, seasonably warm some 12F to 20F above (44F to 52F). Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Overall, this forecast looks warmer and drier than normal for the first week of January. A quick-moving system will struggle to generate storms and any significant rainfall for our area due to the limited time for return flow. This system will be followed by weak polar high pressure and a brief cool-down before more significant warmth returns with a building upper level ridge over the central CONUS.

Looking at the details, scattered showers and storms should return Friday afternoon and peak Friday evening in the warm advection pattern. Thunder is possible, particularly south of I-20 where some limited thermodynamic instability, 500-800 J/KG MUCAPE, could develop. Atop the rather shallow surface moisture, owing to limited residence time over water of the incoming prefrontal moisture plume, a remnant capping inversion with poor lapse rates above will limit shower/storm coverage in the areas where the better combination of shear and instability is likely. This will likely preclude meaningful upgrades in the risk outlook beyond the chance for an isolated stronger storm or two with wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Should low-level moisture depth be more substantial than estimated or the mid level environment be a bit cooler (either due to underestimated cold advection aloft or a greater amount of lifting than is expected), it is not totally out of the question that a rogue thunderstorm near or south of I-20 could briefly approach severe limits with some risk for a damaging wind gusts. This outcome does not currently appear likely but can't totally be ruled out given the quality of shear that expected to be in place at the time (>200 0-1km SRH and 50-60 kts of 0-6 km bulk shear). Overall, the primary impacts for almost everyone are likely to be 0.1-0.25" of rain and perhaps a rumble of thunder with little fanfare otherwise.

This system moves out of our forecast area Sunday morning bringing an end to rain chances. Quiet conditions then are likely through much of next week as southerly flow moderates the temperatures to well above early January normals - daytime highs into the 70s and overnight lows in the 50s for mid/late week. The next chances for rain will likely not arrive until near the end of the forecast period, by late next week. /NF/EC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail through the period. Rain showers and stratus, occasionally dropping to MVFR ceilings, will be possible. Onset of both rain and stratus will be between 02/14-19Z Friday with ceilings lifting to VFR after. Isolated to scattered rain (30 to 50 percent) persist into Friday afternoon. Southwesterly winds become gusty into Friday, sustained up to 15mph and gusts of 20 to 25mph. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 49 71 57 63 / 0 40 50 10 Meridian 44 69 57 67 / 0 30 80 30 Vicksburg 51 73 54 63 / 0 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 47 73 60 73 / 0 20 70 30 Natchez 51 75 57 67 / 0 10 10 0 Greenville 50 66 49 57 / 10 50 20 10 Greenwood 50 66 51 59 / 0 60 60 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.