textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

- Much needed rain should fall across the entire area. - A brief cool down is expected early next week as dry weather returns.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Through Tonight:

A deepening low pressure system is moving across the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes region today into tonight. Its associated cold front extends back to the south through the Mississippi River Valley. A moist and destabilizing warm sector exists ahead of the approaching cold front, and a broad swath of rain has developed along the front. Cloud cover across our forecast area is slowly breaking up late this morning, with around 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE available for early surface-based convection. Deep layer shear is lacking at the current time, so any showers or storms will be loosely organized to start. Even as the front pushes into our area this evening, deep layer shear will be a limiting factor for organization. Our initial storm activity today for monitoring is developing around central Louisiana and southwestern Mississippi and should spread north through early this afternoon. The main line of showers and storms along the front will continue to push south and east through instability, with the consensus of high-res guidance having the line to southeast Mississippi by midnight tonight or a little after. Without sufficient shear, the threat for severe storms today into tonight is Marginal. By the time storms make it to our southeast, the threat for any severe storms will be ending, but some strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall are still possible.

Sunday through next Saturday:

The cold front will continue to push south and east tomorrow, cooler and drier air bringing an end to rain chances through the day. Temps through Monday night will actually be slightly below normal, which is a relief from recent very warm late March/early April temps. The relief won't stick around too long. High pressure shifting to the east and shortwave ridging aloft will bump temps to at or above normal for the back half of the week. Low-level trajectories will favor dry air reinforcing from the east most of the work week. There's some hint at rain chances around the southern periphery of our CWA around next Thursday, but confidence is low at this time. /NF/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

As of 1735Z, multiple TAF sites are seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR conditions. A gusty south wind 16-20kts will continue ahead of a cold front that will bring widespread SHRA/TSRA and a wind shift to the nw this aftn and continuing this evening. The cold front is expected to move in vcty of GLH by 21Z and be near PIB-HBG by 07Z. The -RA after fropa wl gradually taper off from the northwest but cigs wl lower back to IFR/LIFR by 10Z Sunday. Poor fly conditions will continue across the area through 15Z Sunday. Ceilings will improve to a mix of VFR/MVFR by 18Z Sunday. VFR conditions will prevail across the area by 21Z Sunday. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 55 69 48 70 / 100 30 0 0 Meridian 57 70 48 69 / 100 60 0 0 Vicksburg 53 69 48 71 / 100 20 0 0 Hattiesburg 63 73 51 70 / 90 70 10 10 Natchez 54 70 50 70 / 100 40 0 0 Greenville 50 67 47 70 / 100 0 0 0 Greenwood 52 69 47 73 / 100 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.