textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions will increase across the forecast area this afternoon.

- Severe storms are possible late this afternoon and overnight especially across the north and east.

- Several disturbances will bring rain chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Through Thursday: First the heat, then the storms. Temperatures across the CWA have risen in the mid to upper 90s resulting in heat indices greater than 105F across the west and southern portions of the CWA and near 105F elsewhere. These oppressive conditions will continue until this evening unless being knocked down by rain cooled air. Local radars were not showing much activity in our CWA at early afternoon but the remnants of a cluster of storms shifting east across northeast Mississippi will drop an outflow boundary to the south over our eastern zones. In addition, there was a disturbance generating convection across northern Arkansas that was dropping south. The development in our eastern zones may develop sooner than the convection to our northwest but considering the thermal profiles and anticipated shear, and storm that develops will have the potential for damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall. The rain will be beneficial and there may be minor runoff issues in the urban and poor drainage areas but flash flooding is not a concern. The greatest coverage of severe storms tonight is expected to occur across our northern and eastern zones. Provided the areas of storms come together as forecast, rain will be ongoing across our southern zones Thursday morning including cloud debris over most of our CWA. This will make it difficult to anticipate the extent of heat stress Thursday afternoon. The hottest temperatures and humidity will likely occur over our delta region where peak heat index values may reach or exceed 105F again. /22/

Thursday Night through next Tuesday...The ongoing northwest flow pattern across the region will persist through the end of the work week. This will continue to provide decent rain chances across portions of the forecast area, mainly southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway, as a boundary combines with heating in this moist and unstable airmass on Friday. Although storms are currently expected to remain below severe limits, the most intense storms will be capable of producing gusty winds. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours are possible with any convection that develops Friday afternoon into early Friday evening.

Over the weekend and into early next week, high pressure aloft will begin to re-assert itself across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will result in lessening rain chances across the forecast area. Unfortunately, the trade-off will again be a gradual increase in heat, but some isolated convection will be possible each afternoon. By next Tuesday, some need for at least a "Limited" threat of increased heat stress may exist across portions of the forecast area. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA are expected to develop across the area this evening and continue tonight before ending over the south after 12Z. Away from the TSRA VFR conditions will continue until after 09Z. After 09Z MVFR cigs wl develop and prevail until improving after 16Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 72 93 71 94 / 60 30 30 30 Meridian 72 93 72 94 / 60 40 30 40 Vicksburg 72 93 70 93 / 60 30 30 20 Hattiesburg 73 92 72 94 / 50 70 40 50 Natchez 73 93 71 94 / 60 50 40 30 Greenville 72 95 71 94 / 60 20 10 10 Greenwood 71 94 70 94 / 60 20 20 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.