textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms are possible in the west with isolated severe storms possible in the east this afternoon and tonight.

- There is a low chance of patchy dense fog early Monday morning in the southeast.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 848 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Although there will remain the chance overnight of showers and thunderstorms, the threat for any severe storms has ended. A strong storm or two with gusts of 40mph and small hail can't be ruled out. Our airmass remains rather moist with a PWAT of an inch and a half per the 00Z Mon JAN sounding. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave trough to our west that will swing across our region as a weak cold front sags south through our CWA. These features are what will maintain the potential for additional convective development. Latest surface analysis had the cold front just to our northwest and the latest guidance suggests that the front will be between Interstate 20 and Highway 84 at sunrise. Temperatures have been rain-cooled in spots but the temperature forecast remains on track.

Patchy dense fog will be possible early Monday morning in the southeast but a Dense Fog Advisory is not currently anticipated. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Tonight through Monday Night...

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase in coverage this afternoon through this evening as near term guidance shows the cold front moving south across our forecast area. In terms of the overall environment, low-level shear isn't really all that impressive, but there is just enough deep layer for storms to reach severe criteria, especially storms that interact with the environment ahead of the line. With that in mind, confidence regarding the evolution of this system is murky at best. It does appear that the area that will have the better severe wx potential for later this afternoon/Monday morning will likely be west of I-55. A few minor changes were made to the severe graphic for today and the "Slight" risk (Level 2 out of 5) was slightly decreased in coverage from the north. Outside of that minor change, the severe graphic over all remains the same with primary hazards begin damaging winds and hail up to quarter size. The timing for the severe potential for our CWA still looks to be 4pm through Monday morning.

A few of these storms have the capability to produce locally heavy downpours at times. A quick look at the 12Z SPC Ensemble Viewer guidance does show a noticeable QPF signal south of Hwy 84. With that in mind, the best area for localized flash flooding looks to be in the Pine Belt. Confidence in flooding is not as much as before and we dropped the local HWO graphic.

Storm chances will continue looking ahead into early Monday morning as the cold front continues to push south across our area. By this point, any storm will be well below severe criteria. HREF fog guidance is showing low probabilities (20-30%) of patchy dense for southern portions of our area. To accommodate this, a "Limited" threat for dense patchy fog has been introduce mainly for southeast portions of our CWA. Isolated showers and storms will continue heading into Monday afternoon with showers finally coming to an end by Monday evening. Some stronger storms in the Pine Belt cannot be ruled out. Quiet conditions will - Areas of dense fog are occuring this morning but will burn off by mid morning.prevail across our area Monday night as the front finally exits our area. Nighttime lows will dip into the low/mid 60s. /CR/

Tuesday through Sunday...

Not much to talk about for the long term period. Quiet weather conditions will persist across the southeast CONUS though the mid week as sfc ridging keeps us dry. Long term guidance is showing a dry cold front tracking southward on Wednesday which will cause our daytime highs to briefly drop into the lower 80s areawide. Heading into the late week, the front will continue to track southward towards the Gulf allowing for temperatures to rebound in the mid 80s. Quiet and dry conditions will continue heading into the weekend with afternoon highs peaking in mid to upper 80s. /CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA have developed over much of the area with the exception of the se. The TSRA were ahead of a cold front that will move across the area tonight into Mon morning. This will lead to MVFR/IFR conditions developing over the TAF sites but LIFR conditions are psbl in the se 10-14Z. Conditions wl be slow to improve but VFR conditions are expected areawide by 20Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 77 59 81 / 40 50 10 0 Meridian 63 79 57 81 / 50 40 10 0 Vicksburg 65 76 58 81 / 60 50 10 0 Hattiesburg 64 82 61 82 / 20 60 20 0 Natchez 66 78 61 82 / 50 50 10 0 Greenville 63 75 56 80 / 70 50 0 0 Greenwood 63 76 56 82 / 70 40 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.