textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- The potential for heavy rainfall and flooding will need to be monitored for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Through tonight: cooler and wet through the period. Early morning local radars showed a weakening band of showers and thunderstorms roughly from Brookhaven to West Point. This convective activity was along a nearly stalled outflow boundary that was ahead of a cold front that was still to the northwest of our CWA. A surface high becoming centered over the Great Lakes region will try to push the cold front into the northwest portions of our CWA today but it will be the stalled boundary already in place that convection is expected to initiate along with daytime heating. Our winds aloft will remain southwesterly and surface ridging to our east will help maintain our warm moist airmass that will fuel the convection. Although the potential for any strong to severe storms will be low through tonight, with PWATs around two inches, locally heavy rain will be possible. There will be the potential for storms to train over the same areas repeatedly that may lead to some minor runoff issues in urban and low lying areas. Otherwise, the rainfall is expected to be beneficial and help ease drought conditions. As the convection is expected to be mostly diurnal, the heavy rainfall potential will be this afternoon into early evening. /22/

Thursday through Tuesday:

Wet pattern will continue as the frontal boundary stalls north of the CWA and multiple shortwave disturbances traverse the region for the rest of the week into Memorial Day. Despite rainfall, high temps will reach the low/mid 80s and lows will be in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

Widespread showers and storms are likely for the ArkLaMiss region. A few storms may reach severe limits, however, organized severe weather is not anticipated as instability won't be favorable. Rainfall amounts are estimate to range from 3-6 inches over the course of the extended period, providing some drought relief. As mentioned in previous discussion, SLU CIPS analogs reveal some heavy rainfall analogs from the historic archives that suggest a flash flood threat could evolve based on our current guidance forecasts, but the details are too uncertain as of now to provide formal messaging. Keep in mind that with each day that accumulates significant rainfall, antecedent conditions will become more favorable for a flood threat. /SW,EC/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Local radars had a band of -SHRA/-TSRA across the cntrl TAF sites at 0530Z. This activity wl become -RA as it stalls over cntrl MS. Away from the TSRA VFR conditions wl prevail until after 08Z when MVFR/IFR cigs wl develop east and se. The northern TAF sites wl remain in VFR until the aftn when isold to sct -TSRA redevelop. The TSRA wl spread into east and se MS by 23Z. The TSRA wl diminish after 01Z Thu but -SHRA wl remain possible through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 83 69 85 70 / 70 50 60 80 Meridian 87 69 86 70 / 50 50 50 60 Vicksburg 82 69 84 69 / 60 40 80 80 Hattiesburg 88 69 86 70 / 60 40 80 60 Natchez 83 70 85 70 / 80 50 80 90 Greenville 82 67 82 68 / 60 40 60 90 Greenwood 82 67 84 68 / 90 40 60 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.