textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend will occur through the end of this week, with increasing heat stress a concern, especially this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Through early next week (Tuesday)...

Through late week (Friday): Morning water vapor analysis indicate upper low centered over northwest MS and southeast AR, progged to gradually drift westward through the day and weaken to more trough axis/vort max over AR into the afternoon. RAP/upper air analysis indicates stout 598-600DM extending in the northern high Plains into the Great Lakes, while another weaker ridge to the south over the Gulf Coast States to ArkLaTex. The stationary front will wash out today. With deep moisture and light flow, scattered to numerous rain and storms (35 to 70 percent) and locally heavy downpours and a few strong storms remain possible today. Increased rain and storm coverage and clouds will keep seasonable warmth in check, with below normal highs, some 4F to 10F degrees below (85F to 91F) and seasonable lows (69F to 73F).

594DM ridge aloft will build over the north central Gulf with increasing thermal warmth. This will keep the area dry Thursday to Friday. PWs fall to less than 1.5 inches Thursday and a slight uptick to up to 1.75 inches by Friday. While it should remain dry, cannot rule out some isolated diurnal afternoon convection with increased insolation and some deeper moisture. Return heat and humidity is on track as highs areawide climb back into the low to mid 90s by Friday. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period, some 3F to 6F above (73F to 76F). Heat stress will be a gradual concern. While HWO graphics are possible Friday, most likely needed into the weekend.

This weekend into early next week (Tuesday): Ridge will retrograde westward into the weekend, leading to a gradual uptick in deeper moisture around 1.75 to 2 inches. Heat will continue to be a concern as highs peak into the mid 90s and possibly upper 90s. The caveat and failure mode could be there could be a touch more coverage of afternoon diurnal convection into late weekend on Sunday into early next week. The synoptic pattern will consists of mean ridging into the Four Corners to Rockies while deepening troughing over the northeast, with a developing upper lower over the northeast Gulf. This will keep our region in northerly flow into early next week. Heat stress will remain an increasing concern, so will advertise a heat HWO graphic, but more generic. With the possibility some rain chances may creep back in faster than anticipated in this pattern of heat, humidity and some deeper moisture, diurnal convection cannot be ruled out. Lows will be seasonably warm during this period (75F to 77F). /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Convection moving across the region this afternoon will possibly impact sites briefly reducing conditions at affected sites. Winds will remain westerly through the period generally remaining less than 10kts./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 71 92 73 93 / 10 0 0 0 Meridian 70 92 73 93 / 10 0 0 0 Vicksburg 71 92 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 72 95 74 96 / 10 0 0 0 Natchez 71 93 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 Greenville 72 91 74 93 / 10 0 0 0 Greenwood 71 91 73 93 / 10 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.