textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry and warm weather conditions are anticipated for the upcoming week.

- Potential more significant cold front next weekend, ushering in cooler and seasonable fall temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

This week into next weekend...

Today through late week (Thursday): Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate post tropical cyclone Isaias over north-central AL. Cold core aloft over the same area is keeping mean northwesterly flow locked in the the west side of the decaying system. Isentropic ascent has kept stratus ongoing in the Golden Triangle but this will markedly decrease over the next several hours. As the upper low and remnant system lift northeast, cloud cover will decrease into the overnight hours. Lows will be somewhat less seasonable, some 3-8F above, but slightly more pleasant (55-62F). Dry afternoon under light westerly winds and sunny to mostly sunny skies are on tap today. Highs will moderate back up seasonably warm, some 10-15F above (88-94F), with warmest areas west of Interstate 55 (91-94F).

Continued warmth into mid October will be the story for the week. Mean ridge around 594DM will settle in over the northwest Gulf and build to the northeast into the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 90-96F range and lows mid 50s to around 60 degrees in east MS to low to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will be the norm. There could be enough low afternoon humidity to support some limited fire danger that will have to be monitored early this week. However, winds remain light enough to preclude any mention in HWO for Monday. Low level return flow will bring some humidity through the week but nothing on the order of dangerous heat stress we have been dealing with for some time.

Late week into next weekend (Friday into Saturday): A more fall-like frontal passage looks to finally be on tap into late week into next weekend. An upper low will remain parked over the Four Corners earlier in the week and potentially will interact with a deepening trough/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast. There is differing solutions of synoptic evolution: one camp of the Euro retrograding the upper low while the core of the trough/jet dive into the Great Lakes to northeast while the GFS phase to the two features and a deep longwave synoptic trough develops east of the MS River corridor. Both bring a stout, dry cold front but the GFS carves out the moisture much more significantly (i.e. dewpoints falling into teens to 20s vs mid 40s for the Euro). At the very least, cool down looks on tap into next weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (86-92F), with lows in the low to mid 60s that morning and lows that night mid 50s north of Interstate 20 to near 60 degrees to the south. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into next weekend (highs of 73-80F and lows of upper 40s north of Interstate 20 to low 50s to the south). /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 603 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Winds will be light generally under 5-10kts sustained and gusts under 15kts. /KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 88 58 91 57 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 92 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 91 59 93 58 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 90 61 92 63 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 92 63 93 65 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 92 61 93 62 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.