textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is likely in the southeast through this evening.

- Additional periods of heavy rainfall and flash flooding will be possible throughout this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Through Wednesday: Local radars showed scattered showers and thunderstorms developing along the Interstate 59 corridor and east central Mississippi. This convective activity is expected to increase in intensity and coverage this afternoon into this evening. Considering the amount of rainfall over the past several days, a quick one to two inches of rain over a short amount of time will likely lead to runoff issues and flash flooding over our southeast where a Flash Flood Watch will remain in effect until midnight.

Early afternoon satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed our CWA between a large 593dam high to the east and a shortwave trough to our west. Although the shortwave trough will continue lifting north through tonight, the large high to our east will remain in place. The resulting deep southerly flow between the features will maintain a warm moist feed off the Gulf to fuel the convection today with the greatest rainfall amounts in our east again. The convection is expected to show a distinct diurnal trend and decrease with the loss of daytime heating.

Come Wednesday morning wl still have our warm moist airmass in place with broad troughing to our west and stout ridging to the east. A shortwave with the southwest flow aloft is expected to move over the western portions of our CWA during peak heating. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected during the afternoon with the heaviest rainfall amounts expected over the southwest portions of the CWA. This area has not received as much rainfall during the past several days as east Mississippi has so a Flash Flood Watch is not anticipated but, the graphic depicting the "limited Threat" of flash flooding for our whole CWA will published. /22/

Thursday through next week: An active, highly unstable convective pattern is expected to persist across the ArkLaMiss region through the middle of next week. The synoptic setup will feature a quasi-omega blocking pattern that establishes over central CONUS later this week. A deepening longwave trough takes shape across the northeast and a closed low hangs across the west, unstable southern stream will be cutoff over the Texas Panhandle Wednesday into Thursday. This will maintain continuous amounts of deep moisture flowing into the deep south, with impressive 2in+ PW values through the period. Consequently, this will result in continuous chances for widespread rain and thunderstorm coverage for the remainder of the workweek, with daily PoPs locked into the 55 to 90 percent range areawide.

Given the highly saturated antecedent conditions from recent heavy rainfall, especially across the south/southeastern portions of the CWA, flash flooding remains the primary hazard over the period. Continued MCV activity in the region will cause daily rainfall totals to vary significantly as well as the axis of the highest bands of precip. Expect the "Limited" threat for flash flooding to be maintained with "Elevated" threat areas highlighted daily and re-evaluated on a daily basis.

A gradual shifting of the pattern is anticipated heading into the weekend and early next week. With the upper low lifting, low level flow will become westerly diverting portions of deepest Gulf moisture effectively limiting PoPs to an extent. /KP/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A couple sites were still observing MVFR cigs at 1730Z but VFR conditions are expected by 19Z away from SHRA/TSRA. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA are expected over east MS with more isold coverage elsewhere. This activity wl gradually dissipate this evening. VFR conditions wl continue until after 08Z. After 08Z MVFR cigs wl develop and lower to IFR by 11Z. Some LIFR conditions are psbl in the se 11-13Z. Conditions wl improve to MVFR by 16Z and MVFR cigs wl prevail through the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 86 70 82 / 20 70 50 90 Meridian 70 86 70 84 / 20 70 20 90 Vicksburg 70 85 70 82 / 10 70 70 80 Hattiesburg 71 85 70 83 / 20 80 40 100 Natchez 70 86 70 82 / 10 90 80 90 Greenville 69 85 70 82 / 20 70 60 80 Greenwood 69 86 70 84 / 20 60 60 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for MSZ057-058-065-066- 073-074.

LA...None. AR...None.