textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal warmth continues into the start of the weekend.

- Chances for rain each day, with a greater chance for showers and storms this weekend as a cold front moves through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Through tonight: Persistence forecast as temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the period along with decent rain chances this afternoon over the southeast. Early morning surface analysis had a ridge nosing west across the Gulf coast states. A weak upper level trough will remain over our region through tonight as well. Flow around the surface ridge will help maintain a decent amount of moisture over our CWA with PWATS 1.4-1.5inches. This moisture combined with daytime heating and the weak upper level trough will lead to shower and thunderstorm development with the greatest chance over our southeast this afternoon again. As compared to Tuesday, convection is expected to be later today and mainly confined to the afternoon and early evening hours. /22/

Thursday through mid next week...

Deep ridging over the region remains the predominant feature for the remainder of the week and will maintain above normal temperatures, as well as sufficient moisture to support mainly diurnally driven convection. Several cold fronts will swing through the area later this week, Thursday and again on Saturday. Most energy is deflected north due to the strength of the ridge, so the front struggles to make headway into the area, leaving a more scattered nature of storms. This system however leaves a weakness in the ridge and allows the next one to push through. Overall, the weak lapse rates and shear, and weak forcing as height falls are weak give little cause for concern in the way of severe potential. Instead, the deep moisture could favor briefly locally heavy rainfall. Flood potential appears low however given the quick moving nature of the front.

In the wake, a fairly substantial, but brief, cool down is expected with highs only reaching the 60s for most of the area on Sunday and lows in the 40s Sunday and Monday night. Temperatures recover back to normal Tuesday and Wednesday, though diurnal range will be greater as northwesterly flow reinforces dry air over the region. /SAS/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Similar to this time last, latest satellite imagery and sfc obs showed MVFR cigs spreading into east and cntrl MS from the south. MVFR cigs wl continue to spread north and IFR cigs wl be psbl by 10Z cntrl and south. MVFR/IFR cigs wl prevail until after 16Z before improving to VFR. By 17Z a gusty 17-20kts south wind will develop at most TAF sites before subsiding by 22Z. Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA will be psbl this aftn with greatest coverage across south and east MS. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 84 65 84 65 / 40 10 40 10 Meridian 83 61 85 62 / 50 10 10 0 Vicksburg 86 66 83 66 / 20 10 60 10 Hattiesburg 83 63 85 65 / 60 10 20 10 Natchez 86 66 83 67 / 30 10 80 10 Greenville 86 67 83 67 / 10 10 50 20 Greenwood 86 66 85 66 / 20 10 40 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.