textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm weather are anticipated this week.

- Limited threat for fire danger will exist this afternoon.

- Potential more significant cold front next weekend, ushering in cooler and seasonable fall temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1226 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

This week into next weekend...

Today through late week (Thursday): Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate upper low lifting northeast into W VA and VA region of the Appalachians. Continued warmth into mid October will be the story for the week. Mean ridge around 592-594DM will continue to build in from over the northern Gulf into the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 90-96F range and lows upper 50s to around 60 degrees in east MS to low to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will be the norm. High temperatures could be nearing records (average is 81). There is enough afternoon mixing and drop in afternoon humidity into critical levels (25 to 35 percent range) for a limited fire danger. Kept mention of Limited fire danger in HWO graphic. Deep mixing will allow for minimum afternoon relative humidity levels to dip (20 to 30 percent range) most afternoons throughout the week, so limited fire danger should persist, especially given light rain totals from Isaias. High pressure will keep winds relatively light and should limit greater fire concerns throughout the work week. Thermal ridge over the Gulf Coast will usher in low level return flow and heat and humidity. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s but nothing on the order to support dangerous heat stress we have been dealing with for some time. Ridge will flatten and build to the northeast into mid to late week (Wednesday to Thursday) leading to a more southeasterly fetch of return flow. Cannot rule out some deep moisture around the periphery of the region (ArkLaTex into Mid South) could cause a few showers to develop but more likely to remain out of the region.

Late week into next weekend (Friday into Sunday): A more fall-like frontal passage looks to finally be on tap into late week into next weekend. An upper low will over CA/NV region early week and ejecting into the Four Corners mid week may potentially interact with a deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the Great Lakes. Guidance is clustering more towards the earlier solution of synoptic evolution: the Euro retrograding a spoke of energy towards the Baja Peninsula while another over the Lee side of the Rockies. The evolution has trended away from a more phased and amplified meridional solution of the GFS earlier yesterday. However, a stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid 30s to mid 40s (36-45F). At the very least, cool down remains likely next weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (82-91F), with lows in the low to mid 60s (60-66F) that morning and lows that night upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (48-52F) to mid to upper 50s (53-57F) to the south. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into next weekend (highs of 70-78F Saturday and 76-82F Sunday and lows of 45-50F north of Interstate 20 to 50-54F to the south). With continued drought stressed vegetation and longstanding limited rainfall, this front will likely increase fire danger concerns. 1035-1045mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind/wind gusts reaching 30mph at times. This will be a concern and a fire danger graphic/Elevated risk will likely be needed if these trends persist. /DC/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 62 93 62 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 92 59 92 59 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 62 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 63 93 63 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 65 93 68 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 93 63 94 65 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.