textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong, gusty winds will continue to impact the area through the day today.

- Gusty winds and low relative humidity will raise fire danger concerns in the west this afternoon.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1037 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

As Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias continues lifting away from the CWA, drier air wrapping into the system has limited rainfall development this morning and is expected to continue to limit rainfall amounts this afternoon so the Flash Flood Watch for the northeast was cancelled. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed a shortwave rotating down the backside of the center of circulation associated with Isaias. This feature will swing through our CWA this afternoon and may result in some strong gusty winds in excess of 40mph. Latest surface observations were already showing sites central and north with gusts to 30 mph. These gusty winds combined with lower relative humidity in the west will raise fire danger concerns this afternoon as well. /22/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 422 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin yesterday evening and has weakened to a Post-Tropical Cyclone as it tracks northward. While the system continues to pull east, strong wind gust will remain the primary concern today across much of the area. High-resolution guidance show strong consensus for up to 40-50 mph gusts in the Golden Triangle down to central MS by mid-morning, with 30+ mph gusts possible across the rest of our area by mid-day. While the Tropical Storm Warning has been canceled a Wind Advisory has been added to those areas. Most of the forecast area will be under an Wind Advisory, with only the counties of western ARK and western LA parishes excluded. Downed trees and power lines are possible, especially in the east and northeast MS where the highest gusts are anticipated over the longest duration.

Rainfall coverage will drop off sharply from the northeast to the southwest, where the heaviest rainfall corridor being confined to the far northeast thus the flood watch remains in effect through this evening. 1-3 inches over a short period of time is expected. Farther south and west, rainfall drops off significantly, with parts of southeast ARK, northeast LA, and southwest MS likely to see little to no rain. All rain will taper of by this evening.

Thick cloud cover and ongoing rainfall across the northeast will create a sharp gradient in temperatures from northeast to southwest with portions of the region struggling to reach the lower 70s and others reaching the lower 90s.

Dry conditions are expected to rapidly return on Sunday as the system leaves the region. Lighter winds will prevent fireWx danger on Sunday, but rapidly dropping RH values of under 40% and high winds will lead to increased fireWx danger across our southeast today. /KP/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 714 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Low stratus producing a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings in the eastern half of Mississippi to start the TAF period. Gradual lifting of ceilings is expected, with MVFR ceilings lingering at KGTR until around 06Z Sunday. Light rain will continue through the day, ending from southwest to northeast by 06Z Sunday as well. Northerly winds will become increasingly gusty by 15Z today. If winds are not gusty, strong winds just off the surface will pose a low-level wind shear concern. Winds will ease by 00Z Sunday. /NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 77 59 91 62 / 30 0 0 0 Meridian 70 57 88 59 / 60 0 0 0 Vicksburg 84 59 93 62 / 10 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 78 58 91 60 / 20 0 0 0 Natchez 85 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 81 59 92 64 / 20 0 0 0 Greenwood 75 56 91 61 / 50 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>066- 072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016-025-026.

AR...None.