textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress continues this weekend.

- "Limited Threat" for flash flooding early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Through tonight: Heat and high humidity will remain the main concern in the short term. A rather flat mid level 591dam ridge across our southern zones along with a surface ridge across the northern Gulf will remain dominant through tonight resulting in above normal temperatures. Per the 00Z Sat JAN sounding our PWATs were greater than an inch and three quarters. Our PWATs are progged to increase to near two inches today and continue tonight. As our temperatures climb up into the 90s this afternoon. The combination of high temperatures and high humidity will lead to heat index values around 105F over most of our CWA with the highest peak heat index values along the Mississippi river and our southern zones where a Heat Advisory will remain in effect. The heating of our moist airmass will lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon but mainly over our eastern zones. This convection will see a diurnal trend and dissipate this evening with the loss of daytime heating but, a shortwave tracking east across northern Mississippi and Tennessee in proximity of the stalled frontal boundary will maintain the chance for rain across our northern zones tonight. /22/

Through next Thursday...High levels of heat and humidity will continue across the CWA through Sunday. A "Heat Advisory" may be extended into Sunday. However, better rain chances in addition to more cloud cover, could halt the extension or result in some modification to the current layout of affected counties/parishes in the advised area.

Although the heat tapers off during the start of the work week, moisture will be at an abundance across the region. Moisture associated with a tropical wave meandering about the Yucatan and the western Gulf, will overspread the Lower Mississippi River Valley next week, resulting in precipitable H2O values hovering between 2.25-2.5 inches. As a trough digs south and swings east across the nation's mid-section and into and through our region through Wednesday, a front will sink south into the forecast area. As it slows/stalls and eventually washes out Monday through Wednesday, and potentially into Thursday, multiple bouts of heavy rain is forecast to affect the forecast area.

Currently a "Limited Threat" for flash flooding is being advertised across the entire forecast area during this time. Copious amounts of deep moisture over the region looks to result in high rainfall rates in a short amount of time, along with the training of convection which could result in flash flooding. This is still a few days out. Therefore, please continue to monitor the latest forecast as adjustments to the threat area will likely be made. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Isolated to scattered aftn SHRA/TSRA wl affect the ne and east MS TAF sites Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 94 76 93 73 / 10 0 30 90 Meridian 95 76 95 73 / 30 10 20 80 Vicksburg 94 77 93 72 / 10 0 40 90 Hattiesburg 94 76 94 75 / 10 10 10 50 Natchez 95 76 94 74 / 0 0 10 90 Greenville 94 78 91 70 / 20 10 50 80 Greenwood 95 78 91 70 / 20 10 60 80

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025-034- 035-040>043-047>049-053>055-059>065-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for LAZ009-016-024>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ075.