textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous levels of heat stress will continue into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 408 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Through Tonight: Heat and humidity will remain the main concern today over the whole CWA with even less chances for afternoon and early evening showers and thunderstorms. Latest satellite imagery/RAP analysis still showed the circulation around a large 595dam mid level high centered over the central Appalachians and an upper level low centered over the Tennessee valley. Drier air wrapping around the mid level ridge has help lower PWATS down to around an inch and a half. The 00Z Fri JAN sounding had a PWAT of 1.47in and the satellite derived total precipitable water product was showing PWATs over our southeast Arkansas and Mississippi counties hovering around an inch and a half with even drier air across southern Alabama poised to move into our CWA from the east. Despite the continued surface ridging across our CWA trying to maintain low level moisture, the drier air aloft will limit rain chances today with the greatest chance for rain over our northeast thanks to the upper level low. The low level moisture combined with temperatures in the mid to upper 90s will lead to peak heat index values exceeding 105F again this afternoon. The most oppressive conditions are expected along the Highway 82 corridor where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. Otherwise, warmer than normal temperatures are expected today and tonight. /22/

Saturday through next Friday...

Persistent hot conditions will continue to be the primary focus heading into the 4th of July weekend. Early morning guidance continues to show a 1020mb sfc high slightly weakening and gradually shifting northeast over the southeast CONUS. This will help keep afternoon rain chances and dangerous heat over our forecast area for Saturday. A few strong storms with gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out.

Daytime highs will peak into the mid to upper 90s across the area each afternoon. This combined with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, will allow for heat indices to range from 105-110 degrees across much of the area. There is a possibility that the heat advisory will be extended into Saturday, and expanded further south to cover the rest of central MS, east MS and south MS. The "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat was expanded slightly further west to cover portions of southwest MS and portions of northeast LA for Saturday. Will continue to monitor heat trends each day to see if further extension of heat products may be needed through the remainder of this 4th of July weekend and into the new work week.

Late afternoon/early evening showers and storms will be possible across much of our forecast area on Sunday, with higher rain chances (50-75%) along and south of I-20. Showers will persist heading into the new work week as the hot and humid airmass remains unchanged. Long term guidance is starting to show the sfc high restrengthening across the area by the mid week. Heat graphics and advisories may eventually be needed as we get closer to the late week. Much of our area will see decent rain chances (15-40%) by next week Friday. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

IFR/LIFR vsbys wl remain possible across the northern TAF sites through 13Z. Isolated TSRA wl come in vcty of GTR-GWO this aftn. Otherwise, VFR conditions and a light and mostly variable wind will prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 94 75 93 75 / 10 0 30 10 Meridian 96 75 95 75 / 10 0 30 10 Vicksburg 94 77 94 76 / 10 0 20 10 Hattiesburg 95 75 95 76 / 10 10 30 20 Natchez 95 76 94 75 / 10 0 30 10 Greenville 95 77 94 76 / 10 0 30 10 Greenwood 97 76 96 75 / 20 10 50 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-025>039.

LA...None. AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.