textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm threat continues to be a concern with a marginal(1/5) severe risk for damaging wind gusts today.

- Outside of rain-cooled areas, increased heat stress remains possible again today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 411 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Through tonight: Overall, it will be less oppressive today due to an early start and a greater coverage of convection. Early morning radars showed a broken band of storms moving across our CWA generally along and just south of Highway 82 with isolated showers over the southern half of the CWA. Regional radars showed additional convection stretching west of the ArkLaTex that is expected to continue tracking east southeast across our CWA later today. Some of the storms will have the capability of producing damaging wind gusts this afternoon during prime daytime heating. The remains the potential for an MCV to develop and aid in the development of strong to severe storms as well. Local soundings still showed a warm moist airmass over our CWA with a PWAT of two inches. The strongest convection today will also bring locally heavy rain that may lead to minor runoff issues especially in urban and poor drainage areas. Although the warm moist airmass will lead to high humidity again today, high temperatures will be held in the lower 90s at most locations limiting peak heat index values. Peak heat index values will approach 105F in areas across our north and across our south so wl continue to mention this threat in our graphics. /22/

Monday through next Sunday...

Seasonably hot and humid conditions will persist across our CWA as the subtropical ridge continues to weaken slightly. A few pop-up showers and storms will be possible across Concordia LA and Catahoula LA Monday morning. Shower and storm chances will begin to increase in coverage from the southwest to the northeast by late Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a weak cold front pushes south and stalls over the Lower Mississippi Valley region. A few strong to isolated marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out.

Afternoon highs will peak in the low 90s areawide. This combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s will cause heat indices to peak in the triple digits across much of the area. A few areas across the Delta and south of I-20 could see heat index values above 105 degrees. A "Limited" threat for dangerous heat will likely be introduced for much of our CWA for Monday.

Similar conditions will occur on Tuesday and Wednesday with daytime highs peaking into the low 90s along with decent rain chances (20- 60%) across much of the area. Similar to Monday, a few strong to isolated marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out for both days. Heat will start to build back in across the area beginning on Thursday as the subtropical ridge restrengthens over the southeast CONUS. Additional heat related graphic for limited/elevated heat threats along with advisories may eventually be needed as we get closer to the late week and into the weekend. Heat trends will continue to be monitored on a daily basis. Much of our area will see decent rain chances (15-45%) by Friday. Scattered showers and storms cannot be ruled out across much of our area heading into the weekend. /CR/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 127 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

There is a low chance of MVFR/IFR vsbys 10-13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions wl prevail until this aftn when scattered to numerous TSRA wl develop across the area. Much of the TSRA wl dissipate by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 74 90 73 / 70 20 40 20 Meridian 93 74 91 73 / 70 20 40 20 Vicksburg 92 74 90 74 / 50 30 50 30 Hattiesburg 92 74 91 74 / 70 30 70 20 Natchez 92 74 91 74 / 70 30 60 40 Greenville 92 73 90 73 / 40 30 30 30 Greenwood 93 73 91 73 / 40 30 40 30

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.