textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a limited heat danger threat Sunday and Monday.

- There is a marginal risk for severe weather Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 420 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Tonight through Monday night: The primary forecast concerns in the near term relate to storm and heat threats. A disturbed northwest flow pattern will support the initiation of storm clusters, and the potential for an organized convective system or two to track southeast to south across the forecast area. The primary concern for this scenario is Monday, but would not rule out an organized convective system reaching the area late Sunday. Instability will be quite high ahead of these systems, and deep layer shear should be just strong enough to support storm organization. Moreover, the shear/system relationship and high downdraft CAPE levels will favor intense convective outflow and a damaging wind threat. As of now, SPC has indicated a marginal severe weather risk for Monday, and it appears timing of greatest severe risk will coincide with peak heating hours. The caveat to this is that convection that develops Sunday could change the scenario timing some, so monitor for updates to the severe weather threat.

In addition to the severe weather concerns, high boundary layer moisture content fueled by the recent heavy rainfall and wet ground will combine with increasing summer like heat to raise heat indices to a limited danger threshold (peak values approaching 105), especially for Sunday and Monday. This should be a relatively short duration heat stress event as drier air and slightly cooler temperatures take over beyond Monday into Tuesday. /EC/

Tuesday through Next Weekend:

Mid to late next week: The deepening East Coast trough will ultimately nudge a backdoor cold front in from the northeast around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame, with surface ridging encroaching across the area. This should temporarily reduce humidity and rain chances while moderating temps across a good portion of the area (higher confidence farther north and east) Wednesday into Thursday. This pattern change looks to be short lived, though, as a more humid airmass is set to return by next weekend. /DL/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

VFR flight categories will prevail a most area TAF sites through this evening and into Sunday. However, scattered low stratus and patchy shallow ground fog across the area could bring a one to three hour period of MVFR/IFR categories at sites where observed around day break Sunday. By early afternoon, VFR flight categories will again prevail areawide, but isolated to scattered diurnal convection Sunday afternoon could again result in a degradation of flight categories at area TAF sites where observed with a sites's respected aerodrome. Winds will generally subside to calm overnight, but increase to around 5 knots from the west northwest on Sunday. /19/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 91 73 91 / 10 40 10 20 Meridian 72 91 71 92 / 10 30 10 20 Vicksburg 74 91 74 92 / 10 40 10 10 Hattiesburg 73 92 73 92 / 20 30 10 30 Natchez 74 92 74 93 / 10 20 20 10 Greenville 73 91 73 92 / 10 40 10 10 Greenwood 72 91 72 92 / 0 30 10 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.