textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a Limited threat for fire danger conditions across eastern Mississippi Tuesday and areawide Wednesday.

- Dry weather with warmer than normal temperatures are anticipated through Friday.

- A significant dry cold front will bring strong north winds and fire danger concerns to the forecast area on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Through Tonight... Surface high pressure and broad upper ridging will maintain lower-mid 90s heat and low afternoon RHs of less than 30% across the east. A "Limited" fire danger threat continues throughout the area. Early this morning, radiational cooling and returning low level moisture create conditions conducive for dense patchy fog across the southern MS/LA across the HWY-84 corridor. To the west across central and northern Louisiana, returning moisture will support chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly west of our forecast area. Cannot rule out a few moving into parts of northeast Louisiana, but will still be combating the deeper atmospheric mixing. Overnight lows tonight will drop into the upper 50s to low 60s. /KP/

Wednesday and Thursday...

Weather conditions will be generally quiet and dry across our entire forecast area on Wednesday. Near term guidance continues to show a mean ridge around 592-594DM that will flatten and build to the northeast. Winds will be light and southerly across our CWA with wind gusts under 10 kts. In addition to the light southerly winds, sky cover will be generally clear across our CWA on Wednesday. The combination of clear skies and sufficient daytime heating will allow for afternoon highs to peak into the low to mid 90s across the area. Several spots could see some new record temperatures being set especially if warmer guidance over performs. Wednesday night will remain quiet with overnight lows dipping into the low to mid 60s under clear skies. Similar conditions are expected again on Thursday with highs in the low to mid 90s.

Regarding the fire danger for the rest of this work week, there is enough afternoon mixing and drop in afternoon humidity into critical levels. Deep mixing will allow for minimum afternoon relative humidity levels to dip (25 to 35 percent range) most afternoons throughout the week, so "Limited" fire danger should persist Wednesday through Thursday, especially given light rain totals from Isaias. High pressure will keep winds relatively light and should limit greater fire concerns throughout the work week.

Friday through Monday...

A stout dry cold front will push into the region by Friday and will cause dewpoints to fall into the mid 30s to mid 40s. At the very least, cool down still remains likely next weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday in the upper 80s to low 90s, with lows in the low to mid 60s that morning and lows that night upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (48-52F) to mid to upper 50s (53-57F) to the south. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into next weekend.

The combination of continued drought stressed vegetation and longstanding limited rainfall will help increase fire danger concerns. 1035-1045mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Midwest, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind/wind gusts reaching 30 mph at times. A "Limited" gusty wind threat will likely be added for the area. The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted a relatively rare (for our area) Marginal Outlook for fire conditions on Friday with the expected dry cold frontal passage. We will be refining our messaging for fire danger locally, but do expect more Elevated wording for Friday's fire danger after several lower end/"Limited" days this week. Low chances for scattered showers (PoPs around 15%) will be possible across portions of west MS, southwest MS, and portions of northeast LA heading into Monday. /KP/CR/NF/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 624 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the TAF sites, except for ongoing BR or FG/stratus near KHBG and KPIB around through 13/14Z Tuesday. Light southerly winds will be the norm, generally below 10mph, with some gusts up to around 15mph. Additional round of BR or FG and low stratus cannot be ruled out after 14/10Z Wednesday, focused near the Pine Belt (HBG and PIB). /NF/DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 65 94 63 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 92 61 93 61 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 64 94 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 94 61 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 64 94 61 / 10 10 0 0 Greenville 93 71 94 64 / 0 0 10 0 Greenwood 94 68 95 64 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ063>066- 072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.