textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant severe weather threat including the risk for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds continues into tonight. - Additional rounds of storms could impact the area later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

In the near term: The convective scenario for today and tonight's severe weather event has become rather complex. Capping is noted ~H800 in this afternoon's special JAN raob as an initial round of deep convection crosses the I-55 corridor and moves toward east MS, and there is also negative theta-e advection in the lower levels south of the I-20 corridor. The current convection had reached severe intensities previously, but is now feeling the effects of the more stable air as it moves east. Meanhwile, additional storms well upstream over the Southern Plains are forecast to quickly organize as they approach the ArkLaMiss region, and the big question is how will threats evolve as these storms develop. The steep lapse rates and strong deep layer shear upstream continue to support organized severe weather assuming the ascent is favorable, but in light of recent observations, we may need to consider backing down a bit in the severe weather messaging and will continue to monitor. /EC/

Flash Flood Threat: With precipitable water values (PWATs) above 1.8", storm motions not particularly fast for our area this time of year (generally less than 40 kt forward motion), and the tendency for storms to move over the same areas, localized flash flooding appears increasingly possible. A "Limited" threat for heavy rainfall continues to be advertised for portions of Southeast Arkansas and North Mississippi through tonight. Most areas along and north of the I-20 corridor will see rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with amounts tapering off dramatically with southern extent. Localized areas of 3 to 6 inches where thunderstorms train could lead to some localized flash flooding, particularly in low lying and urban areas.

Wednesday Through Early Next Week: Following storms Tuesday, the boundary will likely sink toward the Gulf Coast during the day Wednesday. This could allow for an additional round of scattered storms during the peak heating Wednesday afternoon of which a few could be marginally severe with attendant hail/wind risks. By Thursday, lowered humidity and an at least temporary end to the near daily strong/severe storm risk is likely.

By late Friday or early Saturday, a potent southern stream shortwave will likely bring our next shot at strong to potentially severe storms. The major caveat with this activity will be the surface boundary and how far inland the developing surface cyclone can force it. With little space between the departing long wave trough and the incoming shortwave, the warm front will be facing a tug-of-war scenario as continental dry air and a surface high not far away, perhaps as near as northern Georgia, attempting to remain entrenched squares off against the southerly mass recovery attempts of the incoming surface cyclone/frontal wave. The demarcation between noisy and wet weather versus strong to severe storms will likely be defined by this progress an guidance differs greatly on how that may play out. For now, the most likely scenario would be for some stronger storm risk across our southernmost areas. This situation should be monitored carefully particularly for folks along or south of the I-20 corridor.

Looking ahead into early next week, guidance is starting to show a 1020mb sfc high over the Southern Plains shifting towards our forecast area. This will allow for quiet weather conditions to persist over the region with daytime highs peaking in the upper 70s.

Taking a perhaps daring glance into the forecast beyond day 7 suggests more active weather is likely with attendant risks for thunderstorms, perhaps severe. Attempting to declare any specificity would be foolhardy, but it does seem like we will be making some dent in the local drought conditions over the next couple of weeks. /86/CR/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

VFR/MVFR flight conditions with southerly winds of 10-15 kts and gusts near 20 kts across most sites with the exception of GTR as - TSRA is ongoing. Gradual clearing of low stratus along with -TSRA moving away from GTR will lead to VFR conditions across the area. Widespread rain/storms are expected late afternoon into the evening with some storms likely reaching severe limits with gusts to 50-60 kt, hail up to golf ball size, and tornadoes possible. MVFR/IFR flight conditions are expected to accompany the storms. Low stratus will return once storms move out, causing flight conditions to remain at MVFR. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 67 84 61 76 / 70 60 80 30 Meridian 65 85 59 76 / 80 60 80 30 Vicksburg 68 83 60 75 / 70 70 80 30 Hattiesburg 67 89 64 79 / 30 50 80 40 Natchez 69 87 63 76 / 30 70 80 40 Greenville 67 77 58 71 / 90 50 50 10 Greenwood 66 79 57 73 / 100 40 60 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.