textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Flash flooding and additional severe weather remain concerns into tonight.

- Much cooler temperatures are expected following the cold front this weekend.

- Colder weather may be in store in the longer range.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Tonight: A shortwave trough crossing the Southern Plains is approaching our region and increasing large scale ascent, and this will maintain our current marginal/slight severe and heavy rain event as we go into the evening. Compared to previous forecasts, the threats have become more confined to southern/eastern portions of the area, and diminishing low level shear will help to further reduce the tornado threat as we go into the evening. There could be a slight rebound in low level shear parameters late this evening when the shortwave trough approaches and helps to back and strengthen low level wind fields, and this may be the brief window of time to monitor for any additional tornado threats. Otherwise, damaging wind gusts would be the primary concerns, and thunderstorm risk should diminish prior to daybreak. With very moist air continuing to be transported into the system, rainfall is quite efficient with the deep convection and this will continue to support a flash flood threat where convection can become focused for 2+ hours.

Saturday through Sunday: The front and lingering light rainfall will push through quickly in the morning, and then much drier and cooler air will advect in behind the front, with the greater cold advection holding off until Saturday night/Sunday. While temperatures will actually be just a little below normal, they will feel much cooler after the recent very warm conditions.

Sunday night through the upcoming week: The forecast will be on the cool side and mostly dry with northwest flow aloft being the strongest influence. Global models are keying in on a bigger surge of cold air into the forecast area as we finish up next week, when amplification of eastern CONUS longwave trough is forecast by most guidance now. It doesn't appear this will be dangerously cold air, but it would still be impactful given the timing in mid winter. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Widespread SHRA/TSRA will result in lower and variable flying conditions through the TAF period. Although some TAF sites were in VFR at 1730Z, MVFR/IFR cigs are expected to prevail through 06Z Sat. After 06Z IFR cigs are expected and prevail through 15Z before improving back to MVFR by the end of the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 60 67 38 52 / 90 80 0 0 Meridian 61 70 38 53 / 90 80 0 0 Vicksburg 58 65 37 53 / 90 60 0 0 Hattiesburg 65 75 43 60 / 90 80 10 0 Natchez 59 67 39 55 / 90 60 0 0 Greenville 56 60 37 48 / 100 30 0 0 Greenwood 57 63 36 50 / 100 60 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Flood Watch until midnight CST tonight for MSZ038-039-043>046- 048>066-072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.