textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- We are monitoring for heavy rainfall threat associated with a cold front late Tuesday into Wednesday, mainly west of I-55.

- The aforementioned front could also carry a low end severe threat, primarily damaging wind gusts.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

The pattern becomes remains active over the next week with persistent longwave troughiness over the region and several shortwaves and strong jet energy. Intermittent low rain chances will stick around throughout the week, but the greatest chances concern a system anticipated late Tuesday into Wednesday.

The system will take shape late Sunday into Monday as a shortwave digs from over the Pacific NW and phases with subtropical jet energy to aid in the lee cyclogenesis off the Rockies. The corresponding surface low will rapidly deepen as it tracks across the great plains. This should create breezy conditions Monday as the pressure gradient tightens in response. Moisture return in response will push dewpoints up into the upper 60s near 70 ahead of its attendant cold front. The cold front should lag behind the surface slow so most low level forcing will be focused north. Storms will develop along the front west over Oklahoma and Texas and push into our area late Tuesday as the front approaches. Lightning probabilities continue to suggest weakening with eastward extent which makes sense as low level forcing weakens. This all acts to slow the front down and the storms along it will reside in an environment favorable for heavy rainfall with PWATs approaching 2 inches and moist convergence. Storm motions suggest training along the slow moving boundary. Rainfall amounts can easily stack up in this scenario. Some guidance is suggesting bullseyes anywhere between 4 and 7 inches in a short period. This threat will have to continue to be monitored.

There is a low end chance for isolated severe weather as well with this system, but secondary to flash flood threat. Linear storm mode and high shear low cape type environment suggest a primary wind/tornado risk, which would likely be isolated with greatest chances west of I-55 and the river. Heavy rainfall, as well as overnight timing, may dwarf this threat a bit however and limit instability. Still, it is worth monitoring.

Due to the secondary low development into Wednesday, moisture wrap around lingers, so low (15-20%) rain chances continue through Thursday. Additional rainfall amounts to generally under a tenth of an inch. The jet remains active and persistent moist trajectories may keep isolated rain chances around to end the week into next weekend. /SAS/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 534 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low stratus will lead to prevailing MVFR/IFR conditions. Light intermittent rain showers will persist mainly in the north and east throughout the period. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 78 62 80 63 / 40 10 0 0 Meridian 73 58 78 60 / 50 20 0 0 Vicksburg 80 62 82 63 / 60 10 0 0 Hattiesburg 79 61 81 61 / 50 20 10 0 Natchez 81 64 82 65 / 50 20 10 0 Greenville 76 61 79 64 / 70 30 10 0 Greenwood 73 59 78 62 / 70 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.