textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress will persist this weekend.

- There is a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

This afternoon through Sunday night...

Another day of dangerous heat is in the forecast for much of the area this afternoon. Afternoon highs will peak into the mid to upper 90s across much of our CWA. A few locations north of Hwy 82 could briefly see daytime highs reach 100 degrees. The combination of daytime highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the mid 70s will all for heat index reading values to peak in the 105-110 degree range across our CWA today. At this time no changes have been made to the heat graphic, and the "Elevated" risk for dangerous heat will continue to be advertised for much of our CWA for today. Likewise, the Heat Advisory will remain in effect for western/northern parts of the area until later this evening. Isolated to scattered diurnal showers and storms will be possible this afternoon mainly for areas along and south of I-20. A few strong storms with wind gusts up to 40 mph cannot be ruled out.

Rain chances will begin to decrease later this evening leading to quiet weather conditions across our CWA heading into the overnight period. Areas south of I-20 will start to see cloud cover begin to increase from west to east shortly after midnight with mostly clear skies elsewhere. Nighttime lows will dip into the low to mid 70s areawide. Given the clear skies, light sfc wind, and a humid boundary layer, some dense fog cannot be ruled out for central and southern portions of the area late tonight through early Sunday morning. For this reason, a "Limited" risk for patchy dense fog has been introduced mainly for southern portions of the forecast area, including portions of northeast LA.

Looking ahead into Sunday, a quick amplification of the upper level tough over the eastern CONUS will send a frontal boundary toward our CWA. There will be some added compressional heating ahead of the boundary with H850 temperatures in the low 20s deg C, and this will result in continued elevated dangerous heat levels. Because of this an Heat Advisory has been introduced for our entire area from 11 am Sunday morning until 7 pm Sunday evening. In addition, a marginal severe risk (Level 1 out of 5) will continue to be advertised for a good portion of our CWA Sunday afternoon/evening as scattered storms should initiate ahead of the front in an airmass characterized by steep low to mid level lapse rates. This will support severe wind gusts in the more intense storms. If storm development becomes more imminent, we could certainly see the risk level increase to slight (2 of 5) as there is recent precedence for storms to overachieve with the hotter days and anomalously hot H850 temps. Timing of the severe storms for Sunday still looks to be from to 2 pm Sunday afternoon until 9 pm Sunday night. /CR/

Monday through next Saturday...

The forecast messaging for the long term period remains the same with no major modifications made to the overall forecast. Long term guidance continues to show a stubborn subtropical ridge that will unfortunately remain in place of the Gulf Coast States as we head into the new work week, so don't expect signs for early fall weather to show up any time soon. Instead, we can expected additional limited to elevated dangerous heat threats and reduced rainfall coverage mostly limited to southern portions of the area. Rain will start to increase in coverage across eastern and southern portions of the area by the weekend. /CR/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Isolated SHRA wl come in vcty of HEZ through 01Z. Eslewhere, VFR conditions wl continue until after 09Z. After 09Z MVFR/IFR conditions wl be psbl in the se until after 15Z. After 15Z VFR conditions wl prevail until isolated to scattered TSRA begin to affect TAF sites cntrl and east especially between 20Z-24Z. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 97 74 98 / 0 40 20 10 Meridian 73 99 73 99 / 0 30 20 10 Vicksburg 73 97 74 98 / 0 30 20 10 Hattiesburg 73 96 74 98 / 10 30 10 20 Natchez 72 96 74 98 / 10 20 10 10 Greenville 75 101 75 99 / 10 20 10 0 Greenwood 74 100 73 98 / 10 30 10 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ018-019-025>054- 059>062.

Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for MSZ055>058- 063>066-072>074.

LA...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for LAZ007>009-015-016- 023>026.

AR...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ074-075.