textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A marginal (Level 1 of 5) severe risk for damaging wind gusts today mainly during the afternoon into early evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Through tonight: There will be less coverage of storms today but there will be the chance for isolated severe storms in the west this afternoon and into early evening.

Wl maintain a warm and humid airmass over our CWA through the period. The 00Z Mon JAN sounding showed a PWAT of two inches still and surface dew points were running in the low to mid 70s. Early morning satellite imagery/RAP analysis showed the circulation around a positively tilted upper level trough axis just to our northwest. A shortwave within this trough will edge closer to our CWA this afternoon and help generate convection to our west during prime daytime heating. Some of this convection may move into the western portions of our CWA and have the potential for damaging wind gusts primarily but also some hail to quarter size and locally heavy rain. Although the potential for any flash flooding will remain low, the slow moving storms may lead to minor runoff issues in urban and poor drainage areas. The severe potential of the storms will end this evening as instability wains. The lower coverage of storms today will allow temperatures to top out a degree or two warmer than on Sunday but much of the CWA will be in the lower 90s which is close to normal. Highs in the lower 90s combined with the high humidity will result in peak heat indices in the lower 100Fs. /22/

Tuesday through next Monday...

The subtropical ridge will continue to weaken slightly over the Lower MS Valley heading into Tuesday. At the same time, the troughing in its place is still supporting cyclonic flow which will help support decent rain chances across our forecast area. Tuesday morning will start off with low rain chances (15-30%) mainly for areas west of I-55, with quiet conditions elsewhere. Chances for scattered showers and storms will begin to increase in coverage from west to east as we head into Tuesday afternoon/Tuesday evening. A few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out for a good portion of our CWA. A few lingering showers will be possible Tuesday night.

Regarding the heat threat, afternoon highs for Tuesday are forecasted to peak in the low 90s areawide. This combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will allow for heat indices to peak in the triple digits across much of our area. A few areas along and south of Hwy 84 could see heat index reading values reach 105 degrees. Regardless, heat trends will stay mainly below limited thresholds for the most part.

Scattered showers and storms will prevail across the area looking ahead into Wednesday, with highs peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Even though rain chances are forecasted to be slightly lower in terms of coverage on Wednesday (20-45%), the risk for a few strong to isolated severe storms still remains.

The ridge is forecast by most guidance to rebuild, and this should lessen convective rainfall coverage while allowing heat stress to intensify some heading into the late week. Additional heat related graphics for limited/elevated heat threats may eventually become necessary. Rain chances will start increase across our forecast by Sunday and continue into next week Monday. /CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 637 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

MVFR/IFR cigs and vsbys wl be psbl over the east and cntrl MS TAF sites until after 13Z. After 13Z VFR conditions wl resume areawide until after 17Z when isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA wl be psbl until after 01Z Tue. Isolated -SHRA were noted developing in the se and may come in vcty of PIB and HBG before 17Z. The greatest coverage of aftn TSRA area expected over the eastern and southern MS TAF sites. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 91 73 90 73 / 20 20 50 30 Meridian 92 73 92 73 / 30 10 30 20 Vicksburg 91 73 90 74 / 20 20 40 20 Hattiesburg 92 74 92 74 / 30 10 40 20 Natchez 92 73 90 74 / 40 20 60 10 Greenville 92 73 90 73 / 30 40 50 20 Greenwood 92 72 91 73 / 20 20 50 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.