textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night brings thunderstorms and a Marginal risk for severe weather.

- Damaging wind gusts and periods of heavy rain and flash flooding potenial are the primary threats. A brief, isolated tornado can't be totally ruled out.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Today into Tonight...

Temperatures and humidity will remain above seasonal normals today as highs crest to near 80 F near and north of I-20 and into the lower 80s F to the south. Dewpoints will generally be in the 60s F across the area. The chances for rain sink today with overall fair weather expected. We could see the sun peaking through by afternoon but mostly cloudy conditions will continue ahead of our next potential weather maker late Tuesday. Temperatures tonight will dip into the 60s F, held from dipping further by clouds and deep boundary layer moisture.

Tuesday into Wednesday...

Deep return flow between a departing deep layer ridge and incoming deep layer trough will continue to advect warm, moist air from the south and east through much of Tuesday. In the lower levels, the imported airmass will have trajectories of modified continental origin, having been dragged across portions of the southwestern Atlantic/Gulf Stream and into the Southeastern US. This airmass will be marginally unstable (~750-1500 J/KG MUCAPE) but we won't likely see air of true Gulf/tropical origin getting into our area until boundary layer winds shift more southerly directly ahead of the approaching cold front. This likely results in a somewhat pinched warm sector that, combined with the likely late day approach of stronger frontal forcing after the diurnal instability maximum, will substantially limit our local severe weather threat. At the same time, the better upper dynamics associated with the upper trough could be on a downward trend as the projected 500 mb height center fills from near 560 dam to around 546 dam and lifts northward more quickly than it can make eastward progress toward the ArkLaMiss. This is somewhat offset by the trough orientation becoming more neutrally tilted than the positive orientation it will likely exhibit to our west. Deep layer effective bulk shear likely rises to around 40 kts with 0-1 km helicity anemic, in the sub 100 M^2/S^2 range for much of the area. The net result, though, still yields marginally supportive parameters for an isolated, lower-end severe weather risk. A Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) for severe weather remains in place for this reason across about the western third of the area, generally west of I-55. With limited instability becoming even harder to come by late in the day and the forcing for ascent being consolidated into a narrow frontal channel, thunderstorms likely present linearly in the form of a squall/QLCS. The primary severe hazard is then likely to be the threat for damaging wind gusts as high as 60 mph though a brief, embedded, weak tornado can't be totally ruled out.

Thunderstorms producing heavy rain is likely in a few areas though overall storms appear to be progressive in nature. Still, in areas where this brief, heavy rainfall occurs, there could exist a risk for localized flash flooding. Central and northern portions of the area would likely see the highest risk of isolated flash flooding. These areas included in the "Limited" risk for flash flooding are expected to see between 1 and 2 inches of rain with locally higher amounts possible.

Rain and storms move west to east across the area into Wednesday morning, likely exiting the area in most part by noon. Temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be warm, 70s F and 80s F for highs, 60s for lows Tuesday night, before then turning sharply colder after frontal passage.

Wednesday Night into Early Next Week ...

Surface high pressure builds in behind the front as seasonably cool air replaces the moist and warm airmass currently in place. Skies likely have time to become mostly clear by Wednesday night and as northwesterly winds become lighter, we will radiate effectively overnight. This will allow temperatures to drop into the mid/upper 40s F for most with 50s F hanging on for the southeastern third of the area. The airmass incoming isn't of arctic origin, however, and the dewpoints quickly rebound into the 50s F on Thursday on westerly winds that will have most recently traversed a seasonably very warm and moist Southwest and Southern Plains portion of the country. We rebound quickly back into the mid/upper 70s F and lower 80s F Thursday, only seeing highs dropping into 60s F by early next week as a reinforcing cold front likely arrives. Current trends suggest this front could arrive without substantial fanfare, likely dry or mostly dry (<0.05") across the area. This does suggest, however, that there could be some chance for frost in the day 7-8 range in some of the typically cooler spots. /86/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

An abundance of stratus over the region will persist tonight, with a mix of VFR and MVFR flight categories (with TAF sites in the west possible IFR stratus overnight, generally after 02/08-10Z Monday). Southeasterly winds prevail Monday, increasing through late morning to around 15 mph, with gusts around 20 mph through 00z. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 81 64 82 62 / 0 0 30 100 Meridian 79 62 81 62 / 0 0 20 80 Vicksburg 81 63 83 57 / 0 0 70 100 Hattiesburg 83 63 83 64 / 0 0 40 70 Natchez 81 66 84 60 / 0 0 70 100 Greenville 78 64 80 56 / 10 0 80 90 Greenwood 79 63 81 58 / 0 0 40 100

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.