textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously cold temperatures are expected through tonight into Monday morning with widespread wind chills into the 10 to 20 degree range and lows in the teens to lower 20s.

- A warm-up will bring much milder temperatures by Wednesday into Thursday, and some stronger to marginally severe storms may be possible ahead of a cold front passing through Thursday evening into night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

This week...

Today into Tonight: Strong cold advection is settled across the region, with 1036 to 1038mb surface high settling into Mid South, Ozarks into the mid MS Valley. This is bringing in arctic air across the area, with temperatures falling well into the 20s and expected to fall into the teens by the morning. There is some continued 4-5 mb gradient from northwest to southeast, favoring light northeast winds continuing through daybreak. Dangerous cold remains on tap: lows (15F to 25F) and wind chills (10F to 20F). Dress in layers and make sure to protect people, pets, pipes and plants. A warm place to stay is critical in these dangerous condition and ensure to continue to drip faucets. Ongoing cold weather advisory and messaging remain valid. Temperatures will finally get above freezing around 9-10AM southeast of the Natchez Trace and areawide by around noon. As surface high drifts well into the region today, highs will remain seasonably cool, 12F to 16F below (38F to 50F). With gradient/surface winds relaxed tonight under the surface ridge, cold anomalies will again be a concern tonight (24F to 28F). With light winds and increased low- level humidity, frost will likely during this period.

Early week into next weekend (Tuesday-Sunday): Synoptic flow will gradually shift westerly through mid to late week in advance of a deepening stronger spoke of vorticity diving into the Sierra Madres. As low-level ridge shifts east, warm advection and moderation will be the norm. There could be an opportunity for some light rain around mid week and scattered coverage of rain and storms Thursday through early Friday. As a stout upper synoptic trough/cold core swing into the northern Plains into Great Lakes, surface reflection is likely, with 985-990mb surface low/frontal system. This will drive this front into the area during this period. There could be low end severe potential (less than 15 percent probs) around Thursday, as there could be some mean deep layer shear (35 to 50kts) and subtle mid-level lapse rates (vertical totals 24C to 27C) for marginally severe convection. CSU machine learning probs support this idea as well. Synoptic amplitude details are in agreement but with low probs, holding off any mention in HWO graphics. /DC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 550 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

VFR flight conditions will prevail through the period. Northeast winds are expected to shift to the southeast after 16Z and approach 5 kts. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 45 27 56 40 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 45 24 56 36 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 43 27 55 41 / 0 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 49 27 61 40 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 47 28 58 42 / 0 0 0 10 Greenville 40 27 51 39 / 0 0 0 10 Greenwood 43 26 54 39 / 0 0 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for MSZ018-019- 025>066-072>074.

LA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for LAZ007>009- 015-016-023>026.

AR...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ARZ074-075.