textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and dry weather is likely into early week.

- Patchy frost and lows near freezing possible tonight across north-central and northeast Mississippi.

- After seasonable warmup this week, another round of cooler temperatures and potential for frost/light freeze returns next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

This week into early next weekend ...

Rest of Today: GOES East water vapor imagery indicates the cold core upper low over the northeast US continues to slip northeastward into eastern Canada while an additional upper low remains near the Sierra Madres area of western Mexico.

High cirrus are continuing to spreading across the region this afternoon while at the surface a 1024-1025mb surface high builds in which has resulted in light winds across the area. Temperatures are warming into the upper 60s northwest of the Natchez Trace of Interstate 20 while upper 60s to low 70s to the southeast with lows tonight seasonably cool, generally n the mid 30s F to lower 40s F. Patchy frost is possible again tonight as conditions will likely be similar to those seen last night-- winds near calm with effective radiational cooling. There remains potential for cirrus cloud decks to stubbornly stick around into tonight downstream of the SW US upper low, which could keep temperatures from dropping as much as they would in clear sky conditions. Frost was observed in some locations this morning and with little airmass change, additional pockets of frost are likely tonight, particularly in areas that are sheltered/low-lying and see somewhat thinner cirrus canopy. Limited HWO graphic for patchy frost remains for tonight, mainly in north-central and east to northeast MS. Ensure plants are covered or indoors and take consideration of cold temperatures and impacts to pets and people.

This Week Into Next Weekend: Quiet, cloudy and mostly dry pattern will persist this work week. Moist, isentropic ascent and cloudy conditions will remain draped across the Gulf Coast states through at least mid-week (Wednesday). The upper low ejecting out from the Southwest is still projected to become an open shortwave and the primary noticeable affects with that feature will be mostly changes in cloud cover. Wedged between the east coast trough and the weakening incoming southern stream shortwave, upper heights early week will actually see some slight rises and highs will moderate to seasonable through mid week (70 F to 78 F Monday to 74 F to 80 F by Wednesday). Lows will remain seasonable.

Following this shortwave, guidance has come into agreement that a northern stream shortwave, more potent than the previous, will follow quickly on its heels. This will push a reinforcing cold front into the area with perhaps a few sprinkles or isolated showers. The best chance for any accumulation will be north of I-20 where generally less than 0.05" could be possible. Most areas stay dry. This reinforcing shortwave will serve to deepen the eastern CONUS troughing overall and a drier and cooler pattern into late week is expected.

Friday and likely again on Saturday, additional spokes of vorticity/shortwaves rotate our way down the westward side of the long wave trough which further deepens the upper troughing and reinforces the suppressed, cool and dry weather. In fact, the pattern becomes so amplified that at 500 mb, guidance generally agrees it will be colder over portions of our area than in portions of far northern Canada with heights at that level sinking to 35 dam below climatological average.

Fortunately, it's still "merely" approaching mid November and these anomalies won't likely bring bone-chilling cold. However, it is looking more likely that many areas (particularly near and north of I-20) could see their first light freeze by Saturday or Sunday morning with widespread frost possible. Blended guidance as of this morning suggest probabilities of a light freeze are a medium to high chance (40 to 70 percent) for central east and north- northeast MS, while falling at 30 degrees or below are low to medium chance (20 to 50 percent). Early guidance this afternoon supports this general idea. HWO graphics for frost/freeze are beginning to look more likely with potential for heightened messaging. The exact depth and orientation of the cold airmass introduces uncertainty--our area will be on the western edge of the coldest airmass meaning small shifts east or west could mean multiple degrees of difference in temperature. For that reason, will continue to monitor trends without formally issuing HWO products at this time. /DC/86/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sun Nov 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the period, winds will be light and northerly generally remaining under 10 mph./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 41 73 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 36 73 41 78 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 40 72 45 77 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 39 75 43 79 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 44 73 47 78 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 40 70 45 74 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 37 71 42 73 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.