textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Storm Isaias will intensify into a hurricane before it reaches the northern Gulf coast. - Heavy rainfall and windy conditions related to "Isaias" may impact eastern portions of our forecast area from late Friday into early Saturday.

- Ahead of the tropical cyclone, fire weather danger could increase Thursday, especially over western and northern portions of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Attention continues to be focused on TC Isaias and the potential for wind/rainfall impacts in our our forecast area from late Friday to Saturday. In the past 24 hrs, there was a marked eastward/faster trend in the guidance consensus correlating with the improved model initialization and data assimilation. Uncertainty in the track (both speed and placement) is less, and there is much greater probability that the center will track east of MS at an earlier time. Our messaging reflects this trend with eastern portions of the area experiencing the heavier rainfall and strongest winds.

There is still a reasonable chance that extratropical characteristics of the cyclone will increase as the system approaches landfall and weakens. This would allow for a heavier rainfall band with windy conditions to develop northwest/west of the surface low in association with a mid level trough/low, which would impact areas along/E of I-55 based on the forecast track from NHC. Recent mostly dry weather will help to limit flash flood concerns even with heavier overall totals, and tornado threats will stay to our east. What continues to require the greatest discernment is figuring out gradient wind impacts as wind envelopes with the extratropical systems tend to expand even while the boundary layer wind maxima diminish.

Ultimately, a 12 to 18 hr period of windy/rainy conditions seems like a plausible scenario for much of the area at some point in the Friday night to Saturday time frame. In terms of formal messaging, we continue to indicate a limited flash flood threat over east/ne MS, but have held off just a bit longer before locking in low-end wind threats due to the changing forecast. It appears we may be honing in on the idea of 30 to 40 mph gust potential mainly east of I-55 developing by Friday evening and continuing at least until Saturday morning. This along with widespread rain would certainly not be ideal for for outdoor events, but the degree of disruption remains uncertain.

Otherwise, it is worth noting that the subsident/well-mixed/dry and hot conditions ahead of the tropical cyclone could lead to an increase in fire weather danger due to increased mixing and hot/dry/breezy conditions tomorrow and perhaps Friday as well. Looking ahead to beyond the system, we'll see drier and hotter conditions return beneath an unseasonably strong subtropical high centered over our region early next week. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 62 92 62 88 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 59 90 61 86 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 62 93 61 91 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 61 91 63 86 / 0 0 0 30 Natchez 63 92 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 63 93 64 91 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 61 94 63 92 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.