textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances continue to increase that a mix of wintry precipitation will affect portions of our forecast area this weekend.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are also becoming more likely for Friday night through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Today through Tonight:

Cold temperatures are expected to continue for an additional day as longwave troughing push cold air through the region. Northerly flow will keep highs (ranging in the 50s) and lows (ranging from the 20s in the northeast to upper 40s in the southwest) slightly below to near seasonal averages. Surface high will progress eastward throughout the day. Winds will gradually shift to south/southeast, allowing for warm air advection and increasing moisture heading into Wednesday. Minimal rain chances (up to 15%) will return for parts of the MS Delta late tonight. /SW/

Wednesday through Monday: The main concern in the forecast remains the increasing chance for impacts from winter weather and dangerously cold temperatures this weekend for much of our forecast area. It's still too early to have any certainty of precipitation types or impacts for any location, but the broad picture is coming into better focus. Longwave trough aloft will steer reinforcing cool air masses toward the Gulf Coast through the end of this week, with one shortwave disturbance leading to light to moderate rainfall beginning in the west Wednesday morning. Once the chance of rain returns Wednesday morning there will remain a chance of precipitation across our CWA until Monday morning.

Models agree that a strong Arctic airmass will drop out of Canada into the central CONUS Thursday night into Friday. The core of the surface high with 1045mb+ pressure values will settle into the Upper Midwest before weakening, but expansive arctic air will spread toward the south and linger into the start of the work week. This will result in a strong north-south temperature gradient and the likelihood of at least some wintry mix precipitation. Latest ensemble guidance suggests the potential for (freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow) is in the High(70-80%) Chance range; especially north and west of the Natchez Trace corridor. Even in the Pine Belt of southeast Mississippi, there is a Low(20-30%) chance for at least some wintry precipitation to fall during the event. The reinforcing nature of the airmass with precipitation falling through it will likely keep a portion of the area near or below freezing from Friday night through Sunday night. In the northern Delta, temperatures Monday may hang onto temps in the 30s. With overnight low temperatures in the 10s and 20s Friday night through early in next week, Dangerous Cold is also a high risk. Temperatures below freezing for a few days will pose risk to in-ground and exposed above-ground water pipes. Precautions should be taken over the next few days to prepare for the extended cold weather, including power outages. Expect refining of details to the forecast over the next few days. Caution should be advised for referencing online snowfall maps from weather models. Even if the liquid equivalent totals are reasonable, many of these outputs rely on "standard" snow-to liquid ratios of 10 to 1. Expected atmospheric parameters for this upcoming event currently limit snow-to-liquid ratios closer to 2 to 1 or 4 to 1, thus reducing possible snowfall amounts from the expected precipitation totals. /NF/22/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR flight conditions with clear skies will prevail through the period. Overnight winds will be northerly and light. /SW/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 54 37 59 49 / 0 0 50 80 Meridian 51 32 58 45 / 0 0 20 70 Vicksburg 56 38 58 47 / 0 0 70 90 Hattiesburg 58 37 66 51 / 0 0 20 50 Natchez 59 42 61 51 / 0 0 50 70 Greenville 50 35 51 43 / 0 10 90 80 Greenwood 51 35 54 44 / 0 0 80 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.