textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of thunderstorms will move across the region late this evening into early Sunday morning.

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe storms over portions of Central and South Mississippi and Northeast Louisiana. - Temperatures will remain above normal through next week.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 752 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Rest of this evening...

Water vapor imagery indicates upper low over the Red River Valley that is progged to swing eastward and help a stout surface low and frontal system to sweep across the area tonight. A robust squall line is ongoing in the ArkLaTex and should move into the western portions of the area just before 10PM. With the highly sheared and weak unstable environment (HSLC or high shear/low CAPE), combined with strong ascent, these environments typically support QLCS that are efficient at damaging wind gusts and mesovortex production. With nearly 40-50kts southwesterly low- level mean bulk shear and 300-400 m2/s2 storm relative helicity (SRH), east-northeast orthogonal motion in north-south oriented bowing segments will be most favorable. This potential wanes further to the east-southeast, but a faster propagation and such strong shear will usually overcome some of the lacking thermo features. A tornado watch was issued through 2AM for areas along and west of the Interstate 55 corridor and along the Interstate 20 corridor in MS and into northeast LA. There will likely be potential for additional watches and those will be assessed into the overnight hours.

The "Slight" risk area (Level 2 out of 5) has been adjusted further eastward into the Pine Belt and Interstate 59 corridor to account for this faster propagation. In addition, HWO graphics were adjusted to account for earlier onset time from 9PM to 1AM in the west, midnight to 3AM in central MS and Interstate 55 corridor and 2AM to 6AM in Interstate 59 to Highway 45 corridors. Flash flooding doesn't remain a concern as antecedent conditions aren't supportive. Brief heavy downpours will accompany these severe storms. Even though the severe storm threat will have ended, there is still some concern that a sting jet like feature tied to the surface low may develop into Sunday morning over the Delta and north of I-20. If this feature occurs, there could be gusts in excess of 40 mph. Recent runs of the HRRR still indicate that potential, so something to watch. Updates were shipped out earlier. /DC/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Through Sunday: A vigorous shortwave trough is crossing the Southern Plains today, and it will continue to track quickly eastward across the Lower Mississippi Valley region tonight in the progressive upper level pattern. A low pressure system associated with the trough will bring a squall line across the forecast area later tonight with threats continuing to be mostly focused on areas south of the I-20 corridor. Given the highly sheared and weakly unstable environment with strong forcing, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat along with a few brief tornadoes.

Both the "Slight" risk and "Marginal" risk areas (Level 2 out of 5) have remained about the same since early this morning, and no model guidance today suggests anything different Brief heavy downpours will also accompany the storms tonight but considering the antecedent condition of the soils and the progressive nature of the event, flash flooding is not a concern. Even though the severe storm threat will have ended, there is still some concern that a sting jet like feature tied to the surface low may develop into Sunday morning over the Delta and north of I-20. If this feature occurs, there could be gusts in excess of 40 mph.

The light rain will gradually taper off from the west Sunday as the upper level low shifts east of Mississippi but it will take until the evening before the precipitation ends over our eastern most zones. Despite the slightly cooler temperatures associated with low pressure system moving across our CWA, temperatures will remain above normal Sunday. /22/EC/

Next week...

In the wake of the low this weekend, weather will be quiet under reinforced ridging. Above normal temperatures will be maintained with highs in the upper 70s, even low 80s by late week and lows in the 50s. The ridge begins to flatten and break down late next week ahead of our next shortwave and cold front, which will bring a return of rain chances by next weekend. Instability with this system looks questionable at this time, but there remains a bit of disagreement in the guidance and the overall wavy pattern bears watching./SAS/

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 752 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions exists across most areas, but some MVFR stratus is building into HBG and PIB currently. Expect a lowering of ceilings to MVFR across most TAF sites preceding a convective squall line sweeping from west to east across the area overnight. Onset is typically around 15/06Z along MS River to HEZ, 15/07-08Z in Interstate 55 corridor near HKS, JAN and 15/09-11Z at HBG, PIB and MEI. Some low-level wind shear and frequent gusts in excess of 40 to 50mph cannot be ruled out at TAF site with more robust convection. Winds will gradually shift westerly then northerly in the wake of the low pressure in northwest TAF sites. There may be a brief improvement in ceilings but this will be short lived as MVFR stratus will build down to IFR to LIFR in north to east TAF sites (i.e. GWO, GTR, MEI) with accompanying light rain showers. Lastly, some brief gusts in excess of 40mph not tied to the storms may be possible between 15/12-18Z Sunday from the Delta and potentially further east. /DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 58 67 48 70 / 100 90 0 0 Meridian 57 67 48 71 / 100 90 10 0 Vicksburg 57 67 48 69 / 100 80 0 0 Hattiesburg 60 74 51 74 / 100 60 10 0 Natchez 57 70 49 71 / 100 50 0 0 Greenville 57 63 45 66 / 100 90 0 0 Greenwood 57 64 46 69 / 100 90 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.