textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal risk for severe storms from late tonight into Sunday.

- Additional rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms are probable, primarily from mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 415 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Our active weather pattern is in a brief lull following the widespread convection just observed in the past 24 hrs, but we should see severe weather threats emerge again soon. This could potentially be as soon as Sunday morning, but more likely it will be later in the upcoming week.

For the remainder of this afternoon into tonight - the atmosphere was thoroughly overturned by last night's convective system, and it has therefore struggled to re-energize for additional storms this afternoon. Later tonight, an organized mesoscale convective system is expected to develop upstream and move through the ArkLaTex region overnight. As it does so, it should ride along the instability/low level theta-e axis that lines up primarily to our southwest. By the time the MCS reaches northeast LA just prior to daybreak, it "should" begin decaying, ultimately leaving behind a remnant MCV discussed by SPC in the SWODY2. If this scenario plays out in a large percentage of CAM guidance, then vigorous convective development could take place during peak heating along a NW-SE oriented moist convergence axis that corresponds with more favorable instability/shear. With that said, we'll keep the mention of a marginal risk for severe storms and monitor closely for any changes in the late night to Sunday environment.

For Monday into Monday night, indications continue to be that favorable ascent and an increasingly robust severe weather threat will be mainly to our north in mid MS Valley where the exit region of a powerful upper level jet will juxtapose a very unstable warm sector and support a favorable environment for all modes of severe weather. For the bulk of our area, anticyclonic branch up the upper jet should help to enhance the capping inversion and help to keep deep convective potential mainly north of the Hwy 82 corridor as we go through late Mon into Monday evening. We are keeping the marginal risk going for northern portions of our area, and will wait to see short term trends with how convection may evolve as nightfall and the intensifying nocturnal low level jet help to promote some southward propagation of storms.

Late Tuesday through Tuesday night, as of now, this appears to be the time frame for our main severe weather concern during this forecast. Very favorable jet dynamics will combine with a west- east frontal zone and very steep lapse rates to set the stage for what could be a volatile severe weather set-up in portions of the Lower MS Valley region. As of now, this most favorable west-east zone looks to set up along/north of the I-20 corridor and will follow SPC day 4 outlook concerning this, but confidence is shaky regarding just where it will set up, so folks with interests in this area should pay close attention to updates. It appears timing wise that this will mainly be a late Tue to overnight event, possibly lingering into early Wed morning, and it should be mentioned that we will need to monitor for flash flooding potential given the potential for convective training with west/southwest low to mid level flow juxtaposed with the boundary.

Wed through Fri night - another wave or two will likely impact our area in association with the continued active subtropical stream, however, as is often the case this time of year, the mesoscale influences and degree of convective overturning will have lot to say with how quickly the airmass can recover for additional severe and flash flooding threats. Confidence is there quite low with forecast details. /EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Aside from occasional MVFR category ceilings this afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail through this evening and into the overnight. Thereafter, another round of late night and morning IFR/LIFR category stratus/BR/FG can be expected. This should be most prevalent in about the 09z-16z time frame with the potential for lowest vsbys mainly over the PIB/HBG area. While TS wasn't included explicitly in the TAFs, there will be an increasing threat for storms from west to east as we approach daybreak and go through the morning, especially for western/southern portions of the area. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 64 84 66 89 / 20 60 20 10 Meridian 62 82 64 88 / 10 50 20 10 Vicksburg 66 85 67 91 / 30 50 10 10 Hattiesburg 64 86 66 89 / 20 50 10 10 Natchez 67 87 69 91 / 20 50 10 10 Greenville 65 82 69 88 / 50 60 30 20 Greenwood 63 82 67 89 / 30 50 40 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.