textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and very warm air will bring a limited fire danger threat today. - Rain chances return by late week with widespread rainfall expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

A strong upper low in the subtropical stream over the southwest CONUS will track east across the Southern Plains during the next couple of days, slowly filling as it does so. Ahead of the upper low, an upper level ridge will remain strong in our region, and this will bring another day of dry boundary layer conditions. Strong mixing with critically low relative humidity will support a limited threat for wildfires over northeast portions of the area. Given how dry it has been recently, we will resume the formal fire danger messaging for today.

A change to a wetter weather pattern is still anticipated for late this week into the weekend as the previously mentioned trough helps to induce increased southerly flow and moisture transport, with deep level moisture eventually increasing to anomalous levels over the forecast area (e.g., precipitable water 2 to 3 SD positive anomalies). Given the prolonged presence of weak synoptic scale ascent related to the subtle but persistent upper jet influence and modest low level moisture convergence, the forecast reflects a long duration of high rain chances in the Friday through Sunday time frame.

While prospects for a wet weekend remain high, the potential impacts related to this upcoming wet weather pattern are quite uncertain, especially when considering that model guidance has continued to shift weaker with the upper trough presence and stronger with the southeast CONUS subtropical high center. Because of this, heavier QPF has shifted some closer to the coast and brings into question the potential for heavier rainfall. Regardless of the heavy rain potential, given how dry it has been recently, the rain that does fall would be highly beneficial in most cases.

Looking ahead, drier and somewhat cooler air should surge into the forecast area as northwest flow aloft becomes the primary driver for our weather. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

VFR prevails with few high clouds and light southeasterly winds. The visibility has been up and down this morning at HBG, therefore added a TEMPO through 13z. Low visibility is possible again tomorrow morning at HBG and PIB along with low stratus with a low (20%) chance for dense fog. /SAS/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 40 10 Meridian 92 67 91 68 / 0 0 40 10 Vicksburg 93 69 92 70 / 0 0 30 20 Hattiesburg 93 68 91 70 / 0 0 60 20 Natchez 94 70 93 70 / 0 0 40 10 Greenville 95 70 94 71 / 0 0 10 30 Greenwood 95 68 94 70 / 0 0 20 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.