textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerous heat stress conditions will increase across the forecast area Wednesday.

- Several disturbances will bring rain chances through the week ahead including the potential for isolated severe storms Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Through Wednesday: Our CWA will remain on the eastern periphery of a large 596dam high while a couple disturbances top the ridge and dive down across our region within the resulting northwest flow aloft. Convection associated with one such disturbance was noted on local radars over the western half of the CWA this afternoon. This activity will dissipate as it moves south of our CWA this evening but convection associated with an additional disturbance is progged to drop into our northeast zones later tonight. Convection Wednesday is expected to be more focused across the eastern half of our CWA. This will allow our western half to warm up into the mid and upper 90s. The 12Z Tue JAN sounding had a PWAT of 2.10inches and PWATs wl remain around two inches through Wednesday. Thus, heat stress is expected to increase over the whole CWA Wednesday with the highest heat indices over the western half of our CWA. In the northeast where peak heat index values will ne around 105F a "Limited" threat area for dangerous heat will be advertised. Elsewhere an "Elevated" threat for dangerous heat will be advertised for heat indices between 105-110F. Depending on how the morning convection plays out in the east Wednesday, the late afternoon convection may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts being the main threat. /22/

Wednesday Night through next Monday...The ongoing northwest flow pattern across the region will persist through the end of the work week. This will continue to provide decent rain chances across the forecast area as disturbances embedded in this flow continue to move across the region. That being said, the main change in the forecast package for this afternoon is that confidence has increased to advertise both a "Slight Risk" (level 2 of 5) and "Marginal Risk" (level 1 of 5) for severe storms across portions of the forecast area on Wednesday, mainly during the Wednesday evening to early Thursday morning timeframe.

During this time, a MCV moving through the ArkLaTex Wednesday afternoon, where temperatures will hover around 100 degrees and ample instability will exist, is progged to spark showers and some robust thunderstorms across that area. Timing of this MCV and the convection associated with it moving through the CWA isn't ideal, i.e. during peak heating. However, there will be enough instability present, particularly Wednesday evening, along with some weak but overall modest flow, that some severe storms will be possible across the area as the MCV moves through, again mainly Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the primary concern with the most intense storms, particularly across far northwest portions of the Delta region where a "Slight Risk" for severe storms resides. However, frequent lightning and heavy downpours can be expected. As the MCV, and a likely outflow boundary, moves further east southeast across the CWA into early Thursday morning, convection will weaken as instability likewise weakens. Chances for showers and storms will remain in the forecast Thursday afternoon and again on Friday, especially across locations along and southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway.

Over the weekend and into early next week, high pressure aloft will begin to re-assert itself across the Lower Mississippi River Valley. This will result in lessening rain chances across the forecast area. Unfortunately, the trade-off will again be increasing heat. By next Monday, some need for at least a "Limited" threat of increased heat stress may exist across portions of the forecast area. /19/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Isolated -SHRA wl come in vcty of the western TAF sites this aftn but VFR conditions wl prevail through the TAF period. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 73 96 73 92 / 10 30 60 70 Meridian 73 96 73 91 / 0 30 50 70 Vicksburg 73 97 73 92 / 0 10 50 60 Hattiesburg 73 97 74 92 / 0 50 40 80 Natchez 73 98 75 93 / 0 10 50 70 Greenville 73 96 73 91 / 20 20 60 30 Greenwood 73 95 72 91 / 20 30 70 50

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.