textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A dry airmass remains over the region through at least Tuesday, with a gradual warming trend.

- Rain chances return to the region beginning Wednesday and continue into next weekend when heavier rainfall will be possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

An upper-level ridge across the central portion of the country and downstream low pressure/troughing over the East Coast has our forecast area beneath northwest flow aloft. This should keep the area dry headed into midweek and allow for daytime highs to nudge over the 90 degree mark. Mid- to late-week though, the pattern will break down. The trailing end of the trough may cut off along the Gulf Coast or near the Southeast US, while the ridge is squeezed eastward. A low pressure system wobbling through the Southwest US and remnants of current East Pacific Hurricane Polo will be wrapping plenty of moisture into the Desert Southwest before nudging eastward.

Guidance trends remain on the slower range with any eastward movement, but some rain is possible in our region as the pattern evolves mostly Wednesday night and onward. Some guidance struggles to bring the system or its cold front into our forecast at all, but in the same time an easterly wave arriving from the Tropics will bring a surge of moisture northward from the Gulf and Caribbean. This is nudging confidence higher for more widespread rain chances around next weekend. Generally expect heavy rain to be possible with PWAT values exceeding 2 inches - even more notable for early October. It's too early to even have confidence in "average" rainfall amounts in the area, but upper-end estimates indicate a 90 percent chance for multi-day rainfall to be less than 4 inches for any location in our area. To put it in other terms, it might be expected that 10 percent of the region could receive those kinds of rainfall amounts, and 90 percent might see less based on current available guidance. Will continue to monitor trends and update messaging as this system approaches and evolves. /NF/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions and light winds will generally prevail through the period. Intermittent, mostly shallow fog will reduce visibilities through 14Z to MVFR/IFR ranges at PIB/HBG through 14Z. /86/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 90 63 90 63 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 88 60 88 60 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 91 64 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 92 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 66 94 66 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 91 63 90 62 / 0 0 0 0 Greenwood 90 61 90 60 / 0 0 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.