textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is an Elevated threat for fire danger conditions across the forecast area Wednesday into the weekend.

- Dry weather with much warmer than normal temperatures are anticipated through Friday.

- A significant dry cold front will bring strong north winds and fire danger concerns to the forecast area on Friday.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 819 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

In the near-term, updated forecast through tomorrow afternoon with latest guidance. With deep mixing and drier air overspreading more of the forecast area tomorrow, leaned on 10th percentile NBM dew points and other reliably drier guidance for the late morning through evening hours. Several locations in southeast/east Mississippi today reported a dew point below 50 degrees, and the same is expected across more central MS zones tomorrow. With high temps in the low 90s again, resulting RH values across most of our area will be in the 20-30% range. In coordination with local forestry and land management assessment vegetation and dead fuels, even winds of around 10 mph are concerning for fire spread at this time. Our fire danger graphic has been upgraded to "Elevated" fire danger messaging for Wednesday into the weekend. The arrival of a dry cold front on Friday and continued breezy winds on Saturday will be our main focus heading into late week. With cool and dry autumn nights, recreational fires become more common. It's important to heed any local burn bans and avoid burning near dry vegetation, as fallen leaves and drought stressed grass and trees can easily catch fire if sparks or embers spread. /NF/

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Through early next week (Tuesday)...

Through tomorrow (Thursday): Morning surface and GOES East water vapor/RAP analysis indicate ridge centered over the ArkLaTex. Continued warmth and potential records into mid October remain likely. Mean ridge around 593-595DM will continue to build in from over the northern Gulf into the Gulf Coast states. Dry weather and seasonably warm temperatures (highs in 92-96F range and lows around 60 degrees in east MS to mid to upper 60s in central to northwest Delta) will be the norm. High temperatures could be nearing records (average is 81).

There is enough afternoon mixing and drop in afternoon humidity into critical levels (20 to 25 percent range today). Earlier coordination was completed with with local forestry and land management assessment vegetation and dead fuels, even winds of around 10 mph are concerning for fire spread at this time. Graphic was upgraded earlier to advertise heightened messaging and Elevated fire danger HWO graphic into the weekend. Deep mixing will allow for minimum afternoon relative humidity levels to dip (30 to 40 percent range) into Thursday afternoon, especially given dry weather. High pressure will keep winds relatively light. Thermal ridge over the Gulf Coast states to the east will keep low level return flow and heat and humidity. Heat indices will peak in the low to mid 90s but nothing on the order of dangerous heat stress potential. Ridge will flatten and remained centered east leading to a drier easterly flow and lower deep moisture than currently. This should cause any showers to likely remain out of the region.

Late week through early next week (Friday into Tuesday): Fall frontal passage remains likely late week into next weekend. An upper low is ejecting into the Four Corners mid to late week is progged to phase with deepening trough axis/upper jet diving into central Canada and southeast into the Great Lakes. There is good clustering of synoptic evolution. The evolution has trended towards the more phased and amplified meridional and positively tilted trough. Stout, dry cold front will drive dewpoints falling into the mid to upper 30s (36-40F). Cool down remains likely this weekend. Highs will be seasonably warm Friday (76-91F), with lows in the low to mid 60s (60-66F) that morning and lows that night mid to upper 40s to low 50s north of Interstate 20 (45-50F) to mid to upper 50s (51-54F) to the south. Seasonable and pleasant fall temperatures will build areawide into next weekend (highs of 69-76F Saturday and 72-82F Sunday and lows of 45-49F north of Interstate 20 to 50-52F to the south). With continued drought stressed vegetation, this front will increase fire danger concerns. 1035-1040mb surface high building will build east out of the lee side of the Rockies through the Mid West, leading to 6-8mb pressure gradient and resultant gusty gradient wind of 20-25mph sustained and wind gusts reaching 30-35mph at times. This will be a concern and a fire danger graphic/Elevated risk may need a potential categorical upgrade. The Storm Prediction Center is still highlighting a relatively rare (for our area) Marginal Outlook for fire conditions on Friday with the expected dry cold frontal passage. Ridge axis will build across the area into early next week. Low chances for isolated showers (PoPs around 15%) will be possible across west and southwest MS and portions of northeast LA heading into Monday and again on Tuesday. /DC/NF/CR/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A period LIFR stratus/dense fog is ongoing at KPIB and KHBG through 14/14Z-15Z Wednesday and between 14/11Z-14Z at HEZ. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected to prevail a majority of the period at the TAF sites. Additional IFR to LIFR fog/stratus is possible at HBG and PIB around 15/09Z-10Z Thursday and cannot be ruled out at HEZ through the end of the 12Z TAF cycle. /DC/NF/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 93 64 92 64 / 0 0 0 0 Meridian 93 61 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 93 63 92 62 / 0 0 0 0 Hattiesburg 93 60 91 61 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 93 62 91 63 / 0 0 0 0 Greenville 93 66 92 64 / 10 10 0 0 Greenwood 94 64 93 63 / 10 10 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ062>066- 072>074.

LA...None. AR...None.