textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Dense fog may impact southeast portions of the area early this morning. - Near record warmth is expected this week.

- Rainfall chances will increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

An anomalously strong southeast CONUS ridge will maintain control of our warm and dry weather regime this week. The warm southerly flow will support daily rounds of morning fog and stratus and near record high temperatures. A significant shortwave trough is being forecast by most guidance to reach the West Coast by tomorrow and move through the western CONUS this week, but most of the vorticity with this trough will be forced southward where it will eventually pinch off near the Baja California peninsula.

The cyclonic energy remaining from this trough in the northern stream will ultimately help push a weak frontal boundary into the ArkLaMiss Delta region where it will focus seasonably moist air with precipitable water values exceeding 1.5 inches. Meanwhile, the surface pattern will be frontolytic in nature as the already weak shortwave trough shears quickly eastward. With all of this said, the ceiling is not looking particularly high for severe weather and heavy rainfall threats. For those hoping for beneficial rainfall, there should be enough moisture convergence for good downpours, mainly northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor, but the caveat is that there is some run to run flux in the global model guidance that keeps us from guaranteeing significant rainfall for anyone.

Looking ahead to next week, we "should" see a more significant shortwave trough bring stormy weather to our region by mid week, especially with the mean longwave trough position expected to set up over the central CONUS. This could bring an uptick in severe weather potential and will be something to monitor as we get closer. /EC/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 553 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

MVFR/IFR category stratus will be the concern this morning along with some potential for BR/FG. VFR conditions will return for the afternoon and evening, but expect a repeat of MVFR/IFR category stratus Wed morning in the persistent southerly flow pattern. /EC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 80 63 82 61 / 0 0 10 0 Meridian 80 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Vicksburg 82 62 81 62 / 0 0 20 0 Hattiesburg 82 61 84 61 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 82 65 81 62 / 0 0 20 0 Greenville 79 62 80 63 / 0 0 10 10 Greenwood 80 63 82 63 / 0 0 10 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.