textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a marginal to slight risk for severe weather Friday for much of the forecast area.

- Multiple rounds of showers and storms will result in significant rainfall and the potential for additional severe weather threats as we go into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Remainder of this week through early next week...

After a fairly quiet recent few weeks, it appears that our forecast area may be shifting into a more active convective pattern over the next several days. While we should continue with skepticism about the coverage of anticipated rainfall, given the current expanding drought in the region, a pattern shift will bring us more into alignment with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms for late week. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible at times, and with increasing humidity expect some potential for locally heavy rainfall as well.

The ridge of high pressure over the Southeast US has been persistent, but this will change as the ridge gradually pushes east over the Atlantic. Broad troughing and cyclogenesis over the Northern Rockies push a cold front toward our region this weekend, but upper-level forcing will remain displaced farther north. The boundary will however help to concentrate atmospheric moisture returning to the region. PWAT values of 1.5+ inches will become common through the Southern Mississippi River Valley Friday into Saturday. The uptick before that will support isolated to scattered diurnal convection especially in northern LA/southern AR Thursday. SBCAPE near 1000 J/kg in the moisture plume and deep layer shear of 20-30 kts are not too concerning for organized severe weather, but would not be surprised for one or two stronger storms in the area during peak heating.

For Friday, the approaching front to our north and west will interact with an atmosphere more characterized by SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg and deep layer shear of 30-40 kts better supportive of convective initiation and organization. Even in our own forecast area, afternoon heat and humidity should support some convection developing locally, though with weaker shear. Upstream activity will be favored to spread south and east even into the evening hours with wind shear and sufficient MLCAPE to sustain organized MCS type of activity into our area. A marginal/slight risk has been indicated in the latest SPC day 3 outlook for northern portions of the forecast area to account for this.

Guidance hints at convective activity outrunning the front and settling closer to the Gulf Coast Saturday, but rain chances persist. Rebuilding instability could create a similar setup for MCS type activity to spread southeast into our area Sunday into Sunday night. And then finally Monday night into Tuesday morning, the cold front itself will get a renewed southeastward push and likely trigger thunderstorms as the front and upper-level shortwave pass through. Instability should be higher (assuming no lingering disruptions to the atmosphere from the weekend), and deep layer shear should be stronger (40-50 kts) to support organized severe storms. Having multiple days with a low-end severe risk messaged still seems like a plausible scenario, but do not feel confident enough to go beyond day 3 (Friday) at this time. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast timing and impacts as this weekend nears and details come into better focus. /NF/EC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at most TAF sites throughout the forecast period, sites HBG/PIB/HEZ have the potential for some lowered cat. due to low stratus/fog concerns early Thursday morning. Winds will be southerly and light with sustained winds generally less than 10kts and gust generally less than 20kts./KP/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 60 83 62 85 / 10 10 0 30 Meridian 57 83 59 84 / 0 0 0 30 Vicksburg 62 84 63 85 / 10 20 0 30 Hattiesburg 58 85 60 85 / 10 10 0 40 Natchez 62 83 64 85 / 10 30 0 30 Greenville 62 84 65 84 / 10 10 10 40 Greenwood 61 84 64 84 / 10 10 0 40

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.