textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase into the weekend, with heavier rainfall possible Sunday.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Tonight through next Thursday...Moisture continues to pool across the region as southerly flow at the surface, ahead of a stalled cold front to our west, and aloft persists. Rain chances will increase further Saturday, and again Sunday, when the presence of a weakening trough will be most observed across the forecast area. This, coupled with added ascent from the sub-tropical jet just to our north, daytime heating, and eventually the aforementioned cold front pushing through the CWA late Sunday into Monday, will bring about the better rain chances across the forecast area this weekend.

Despite these high rain chances, the weekend won't be a washout. Convection during this timeframe will not be organized. It'll be more in the form of scattered to numerous showers and storms across the forecast area. Because of this, the advertised 48-72 hour QPF across the CWA is a little misleading. While some localized places could indeed see rainfall totals in the 1-3 inch range over the weekend, generally for portions of the CWA along and southeast of the Natchez Trace Parkway, these high amounts will be isolated and not widespread across the area as the QPF suggests. That being said, in these localized areas that indeed see convection where heavy downpours occur in a short amount of time and/or training of such convection, and potentially observe those higher rainfall amounts as a result, the ponding of water on roads and in low-lying and poor drainage areas will be possible. Severe storms are not expected. However, some gusty winds could accompany some of the more intense storms.

Rain chances will begin to decrease from northwest to southeast overnight Sunday into Monday as the cold front shifts southeast through the forecast area. Cool dry high pressure will build into the region from the northwest in this front's wake. These quiet and cooler conditions will linger across the CWA through the end of the forecast period. /19/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Isolated to scattered this showers will begin this afternoon for most of the area, while persisting at GLH and GWO through the period. Very low stratus is expected again tomorrow morning.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 70 88 69 81 / 20 60 70 80 Meridian 69 86 69 79 / 20 50 80 90 Vicksburg 70 87 68 81 / 20 50 70 70 Hattiesburg 70 84 70 81 / 30 80 80 90 Natchez 70 87 68 81 / 20 70 70 70 Greenville 69 87 67 81 / 10 40 60 60 Greenwood 69 89 67 82 / 10 40 70 70

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.