textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog possible this morning.

- Warmer temperatures today with rain ending across the southeast half of the area.

- The next widespread light freeze is expected Monday night into Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Through tonight: The persistent cloud cover leading to much cooler than normal temperatures along with very light rain and light drizzle will finally come to an end today. Local radars still showed light returns across our CWA as a moist southwest flow aloft continued across our region. Patchy dense fog will also be possible along with the very light rain and light drizzle this morning. Latest surface analysis had a 1018mg high centered just west of our CWA that will track east today and result in a light return flow this afternoon. In addition the 140kt jet streak that has been over our region will shift to the southeast. Together these features are expected to shift the moist feed contributing to the light precipitation that has been mostly over the southeast half of our CWA, to the southeast which will bring and end to our rain chances this afternoon. As the rain ends, cloud cover will thin from the northwest as well. This will allow for the sun to break through and combine with the return flow to result in afternoon highs more than 15 degrees warmer than the last couple of days. Afternoon highs will still top out cooler than normal and in the 50s at most locations. Temperatures tonight will also be warmer. No rain is expected but models suggest the extent of the dense fog development will be greater by sunrise Sunday. /22/

Sunday through next week:

The overall pattern will continue to feature a general ridge pattern over the western US and a trough in the east. Locally, this will mean mostly northwesterly flow and reinforcing cool intrusions. Along with this, the troughy nature of the pattern suggests some opportunity for periods of precipitation. The first of which could arrive in the later part of Sunday, featuring a cool or cold rain with limited hazards likely. Following the first wave and front Sunday into Monday, the next round of showers and reinforcing cold front looks likely towards the end of next week when a more robust shortwave moves through the longwave trough. Uncertainty at the 7 day range with an active jet stream suggests there could be shifts in timing or intensity of this activity, but there does appear to be an increased chance for thunder compared to recent activity that has occurred with very limited thermodynamic instability. Some longer term guidance suggest dewpoints could rise into the 60s F ahead of that front which would be probable to support some convective activity were that to be the case.

Otherwise, temperatures this week will generally be near to slightly below normal with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s F and lows in the middle 30s to 40s F most days with a few opportunities for a freeze on a few of the chiller nights. For now, the coldest night appears likely to be Monday night when most areas see temperatures near freezing with northernmost areas dipping into the middle 20s F. /86/

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

A mix of IFR/LIFR cigs along with MVFR vsbys wl prevail through 15Z. After 15Z vsbys wl improve beyond 6SM but cigs wl take until the aftn to improve to VFR. VFR conditions wl prevail late this aftn but IFR cigs wl redevelop in the south by 06Z and lower to LIFR by 09Z again. /22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 58 43 63 41 / 10 0 30 30 Meridian 56 39 63 42 / 10 0 20 50 Vicksburg 59 44 61 39 / 0 0 40 20 Hattiesburg 59 46 69 45 / 30 10 30 60 Natchez 61 46 66 40 / 10 0 30 30 Greenville 53 41 56 37 / 0 0 20 10 Greenwood 56 41 58 37 / 0 0 20 20

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.