textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A mostly beneficial soaking rainfall event is expected across South Mississippi and Central Louisiana through tonight.

- Dry and cooler conditions will return this weekend.

- The next chance for rain and thunderstorms will come during the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Near term: Our area remains firmly on the cool/stable side of a front that has now stalled roughly along the Gulf Coast. A broad upper jet streak extending through the central and eastern CONUS is inciting continued lift across the Deep South, resulting in continued periods of rain along and north of the front. That regime will continue into today, with a more coherent shortwave this evening resulting in an uptick in rain coverage and intensity this afternoon into tonight. Guidance continues to keep our entire area on the north side of the front through the remainder of this event, keeping any concern for severe weather south of us. Still, sufficient elevated instability will exist for isolated thunder this afternoon and tonight along and south of I-20 and mainly closer to the Hwy 84 corridor. In that area, rainfall amounts will average 1- 2", with localized amounts closer to 3" possible. With this falling over an extended period of time, this is looking much more like the very beneficial steady rainfall our area needs over a concerning flash flood threat. With clouds and rain lingering throughout today, it is likely temps will underperform again, so forecast high temps were nudged down a few degrees. Rain will taper off early Saturday morning with a cooler northerly breeze to follow.

Saturday through Monday: Surface ridging will build across the Deep South resulting in dry and cooler conditions this weekend into early next week. Sunday morning still looks to be the coolest point in this stretch, with temps falling into the 40s areawide. However, morning lows in the 40s will be possible three days a row in a few locations.

Middle of next week: A mid/upper trough over Hudson Bay and incoming subtropical jet streak will set the stage for the next cold front to take shape from the Ohio Valley into the Plains early next week. As that system progresses toward us through midweek, it will bring our next chance for rain and storms around the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. Early indications suggest some potential for severe storms, but it is much to soon to have any degree of confidence in that threat. Keep checking back as we get a clearer picture of how that system will evolve. /DL/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Areas of mainly light rain continue to spread across the region early this morning. Periods of rain will continue through the end of the TAF period, and it will become more moderate to heavy during the daytime hours into this evening, especially from TVR - JAN - MEI and south, where MVFR to IFR ceilings will be prevalent. There could also be isolated thunder at times this afternoon and evening. Periodic visibility reductions will occur later today into this evening in heavier rain. Farther north, ceilings may remain at VFR levels even with periods of -RA. Rain will begin to decrease after midnight Friday night. /DL/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 61 50 70 46 / 90 100 10 0 Meridian 63 49 70 43 / 90 100 20 0 Vicksburg 61 50 70 46 / 90 100 0 0 Hattiesburg 63 51 70 45 / 100 100 20 0 Natchez 61 50 70 46 / 100 100 0 0 Greenville 67 52 71 47 / 50 70 0 0 Greenwood 68 51 72 45 / 50 70 0 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.