textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances increase this weekend, with heavier rainfall possible Sunday.

- Cooler weather arrives behind a strong cold front Monday into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Through tonight: Latest surface analysis had a nearly stationary cold front along the Natchez Trace. This frontal boundary will remain in place through tonight and serve as the focus for increasing rain chances. There was already a layer of stratus developing over the CWA that will limit insolation this morning but heating by this afternoon will lead to convection. The greatest rain chances and rainfall amounts are expected along and south of the frontal boundary. This is expected to be beneficial rainfall through tonight. /22/

Sunday through next weekend...

Moist airmass remains locked in over the area in advance of a slowly sagging frontal boundary, which will keep high (80%) rain chances. Most of the steady precip will remain along and south of the Natchez Trace corridor. This area appears to be stabilized by ongoing rain and stratus, thus limiting convective rates. Along the leading edge, there is potential for deeper convection, convective rates and heavier rainfall, as well as lightning, roughly along the Natchez trace corridor. This band of convective showers should propagate eastward through Sunday afternoon. Trailing stratiform rain will be slow to taper, persisting through much of the overnight hours into early monday morning.

As the front begins to make headway into the area Monday, rain will come to an end as dry air pushes in its wake. 50s Dewpoints in the upper will allow lows to cool into the middle 50s in the north and low 60s in the south. There is a bit of crossover Monday night, especially in the southeast, so fog/low stratus is a possibility.

The remainder of the week will be dry, reinforced by NW flow in the wake of the trough. Temperatures will be more seasonal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s. Rain chances return next weekend as a shortwave out of Texas/western Gulf will return the moist airmass with 2+ inch PWAT. Although there is some flow with this shortwave, lapse rates are rather moist adiabatic, thus insufficient for severe. There may be enough support however to necessitate monitoring for heavy rainfall as we get closer. /SAS/

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 136 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA are possible today, with highest chances in the afternoon and for areas of central and south MS. These could result in brief visby reductions at impacted sites. Another round of low stratus and possible fog is expected along and south of I-20 overnight into early morning. Fog should diminish shortly after sunrise, but ceilings could linger late into the morning especially in south MS. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of the TAF period. /DL/22/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 89 69 81 66 / 50 60 80 10 Meridian 88 68 79 65 / 50 80 90 30 Vicksburg 89 67 81 63 / 60 70 70 10 Hattiesburg 86 69 81 67 / 80 90 90 40 Natchez 89 68 81 66 / 60 70 80 10 Greenville 87 66 82 61 / 20 40 50 0 Greenwood 89 66 82 61 / 30 50 50 0

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.