textproduct: Jackson

KEY MESSAGES

- A storm system with strong to isolated severe thunderstorms and locally heavy rain remains a concern late Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon.

- Seasonably cool conditions possible in the wake of the front late week, with light frost possible around Thanksgiving holiday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Through late week into next weekend...

Today: Synoptic analysis and water vapor imagery indicate northwest flow across the region, with shortwave ridging out to the west. GOES East total PWs and dewpoints currently are falling in the wake of the frontal passage (PWs around 0.6 inches and dewpoints in the 50F to 58F range). With drier air and shortwave ridging, dry and less seasonable warmth is expected tomorrow. Temperatures will be seasonably warm but relaxed today, 5-8F above (highs of 66F to 76F and lows 48F to 54F this morning and 45F to 52F tonight).

This week (Monday-Friday): Recent guidance has trended more confident in synoptic setup to start the work week. Strong cold core will eject out of the Intermountain West and into the Central Plains in KS to OK border, with strong vorticity advection swinging southward across the Red River Valley to south-central TX. Increased upper jet will overspread the Plains, with favorable upper jet dynamics across this area. This will spark a lee side cyclogenesis and 1006mb to 1008mb surface low swinging eastward. The strongest forcing will remain well off to the north into the Ozarks to Mid MS to OH Valleys. However, there will be enough forcing, low level jet and frontal convergence to spark increased rain and storm coverage, with the onset as early as Monday evening and lasting through the day on Tuesday. Synoptic pattern is coming more into focus in the northern Rockies to northern Plains, with another strong closed low in the wake. All this being said, the pattern favors a line of organized convection moving in late Monday evening and majority moving through around midday Tuesday, but some organized storm activity could persist into the afternoon ahead of any frontal convergence. Strong mean southwesterly shear (30-55kts) will set up but remain line-parallel, with 40-50kt low level jet. This will help drive dewpoints back up into the 64-68F degree range along and south of Interstate 20. With strong southwesterly mean bulk shear, lapse rates, favorable thermo (6C to 6.5C in mid levels, 25 to 27C vertical totals and 500 J/kg to 1000 J/kg MLCAPE), severe threat and advertisement in HWO remains warranted. Any northeast bowing segments could be a concern for damaging wind gusts and a tornado, with some hail threat at the onset Monday evening and again into Tuesday afternoon.

Strong cloud bearing layer flow (40-50kts in the 850-300mb layer), PWs around 1.6 to 1.8 inches and 850mb Theta E around 330K favor some quick, locally heavy convective downpours. Rain totals remain sufficient, but only around 1.5 to 2.5 inches (locally higher in convection or training line-parallel storms). NBM probabilities for greater than 2 inches (40 to 50 percent) and 3 inches (30 percent) favor quick accumulation but lower confidence of flash flooding concerns. Will continue to hold off in the HWO, but the areas in the Delta have the best chance for any eventual HWO advertisement. In addition, surface low won't be really deep but there will be some pressure gradient (4mb) for some gusty gradient winds, at most around 25mph gusts or a touch higher at times.

Seasonably warm conditions will be expected both Monday and Tuesday, highs some 10F to 15F above (72F to 80F), while very seasonable warmth Monday night, some 20F to 24F above (59F to 65F). Some record warm lows are possible for sites along and north of Interstate 20.

This pattern favors rain chances through around noon Wednesday before strong frontal passage. In the wake, mean northerly flow/subsidence, 1028-1030mb surface high and drier thermal profiles (PWs less than half inch) favor dryness and seasonably cooler conditions, 5-8F below, into late this week on Thanksgiving into late week (Thursday into Friday). Low temperatures in the low 30s (possibly near freezing) to low 40s are possible both Wednesday night through Thursday night, with a light frost possible Thursday night. A more amplified synoptic and surface reflection will take place into next weekend. Stay tuned for more details as we iron out those details. /DC/

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

As of 1721Z, most TAF sites are currently under MVFR conditions due to an low stratus deck. HBG, PIB, and HEZ are currently under IFR ceilings. Ceilings will being to improve to VFR conditions across the forecast area by 20Z Sunday. VFR ceilings will continue across the region through the entire TAF period with quiet conditions prevailing. /CR/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

Jackson 69 51 76 64 / 0 0 10 80 Meridian 70 48 76 60 / 0 0 0 50 Vicksburg 69 51 78 64 / 0 0 20 90 Hattiesburg 75 52 81 64 / 0 0 0 40 Natchez 70 53 79 64 / 0 0 20 80 Greenville 67 51 73 62 / 0 0 40 100 Greenwood 68 50 75 62 / 0 0 20 90

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

MS...None. LA...None. AR...None.