textproduct: Northern Indiana

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm Monday and Tuesday with high temperatures in the 70s.

- Rain chances through Monday night favor those near Lake Michigan. Tuesday and Tuesday night is when all areas could see at least a brief period of rain.

- Dry by Wednesday morning with temperatures back near normal; highs near 60 and lows near 40.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

High pressure centered over upstate New York continues to pump dry air into our area in contrast to the pre-frontal rain that is gradually lifting into western Indiana from Illinois. Dew points over IL are generally in the upper-40s to near 50; dew points locally remain in the 30s as of this 2pm EST writing. Despite the dry air, incoming 40-dBz returns on radar ought to precipitate briefly for those west of IN-15. The progression east of there is uncertain, given dry air and weaker forcing farther east. I've advised the incoming shift to adjust POPs as needed this evening.

The talking points for this slow-moving weather system remain the same. Rainfall through Monday night generally favors those near Lake Michigan, as northwest Ohio and eastern Indiana see little to no rainfall. Deep meridional flow against an eastern US ridge and deep western trough are to blame. As one embeded shortwave departs Monday morning, Monday afternoon ought to be dry for most of the forecast area. POP collaboration was tricky here. By Tuesday, the eastern US ridge is kicked out to sea and rainfall is perhaps most widespread (at least briefly) for all of the forecast area. This rain will not be a drought buster, but anything helps. Dry again by Wednesday morning.

Very warm Monday and Tuesday with 850mb temperatures warming to almost 14C Tuesday (+10C to +12C anomaly) and 500mb heights rising to nearly 579dm (+10-15dm anomaly). Record high temperatures will be challenged at Fort Wayne (Monday, 76 in 2015 and 2003. Tuesday, 73 in 2015, 2008, 1978). South Bend records appear safe due to increased cloud coverage and rain chances there.

A low is forecast to develop over the Central US late this week, perhaps providing a chance of rain locally this coming weekend. Guidance has seemingly backed off on local precipitation in this latest run. Thus, I limited POPs to no greater than 50% "chance".

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 724 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Predominantly VFR to MVFR conditions expected at the TAF sites, with potential for IFR at mainly KSBN after 16z. A warm front is draped from NW IL southeast into southern IN/KY, with WAA ahead of it generating precipitation mainly to our north now. Expect limited impact shower activity to be around through the overnight, especially at KSBN closer to the better moisture. Further east at KFWA we have a decent amount of dry air advecting in from the east still, so it may take time before the saturation overcomes this (Best potential 19z tomorrow). With the warm front lifting northward overnight expect LLWS, occasional gusts mixing down depending on how well we decouple. Winds will gradually become more S-SW through the period as a cold front approaches. Rain focuses out ahead of/along the front as it slowly trecks eastward tomorrow afternoon and evening, reaching KFWA after 19z (could be closer to 00z per some of the model guidance).

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ043-046.


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