textproduct: Northern Indiana

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and dry today with record-challenging warmth. Southerly wind gusts of 25 mph to perhaps 35 mph.

- Rain arrives from west to east late tonight. Breezy with lingering showers through Wednesday.

- Not as warm to end the week with lake enhanced showers at times.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

A well defined upper-level trough is lifting north-northeast through Kansas early this morning. Closer to home, low stratus and patchy drizzle continues to lift north through Michigan in response to this lifting cyclone. Stout warm air advection has brought steadily rising temperatures on this shift with an increasing number of 60- degree readings (normal high today is only 55). That said, morning temperatures will be a nice spring board for afternoon highs that will challenge the day's records: 76 degrees in 2003 and 1987 (2003 record was only at Fort Wayne). Rather cloudy immediately upstream, but clearing is noted across the Ohio River. This could be enough later today to truly challenge the record. Cloud cover will also dictate afternoon mixing of the low-level jet. Forecast soundings depict a narrow window after 1pm where guidance attempts to mix down 35 mph gusts. Overall today, breezy, decreasing clouds (especially along and east of the I-69 corridor) and dry.

Rain slowly arrives from west to east Tuesday night according to available near-term models (RIP HREF, NAM et. al.). Northwest Ohio could very well be dry until after daybreak Wednesday as low pressure becomes stacked beneath the parent upper-low, slowing the cold front's arrival. Breezy conditions persist into Wednesday morning as the low-level jet remains amplified over northwest Ohio. A dry slot from this low slowly works its way east permitting some afternoon dry hours. Cooler air behind this system seeps in Wednesday night through Thursday along with lake-enhanced showers. Highs in the 60s Wednesday and Thursday give way to highs in the 50s Friday through the weekend. This whole system exits later Saturday ending the lake-enhanced shower chance.

Beyond the weekend, subtle northwest flow results in temperatures fairly close to normal and opportunities for 20% POPs at times as weak disturbances ripple through the flow. Subtle ridging is noted over the southern and central US, which, if building into the Midwest could later induce a more zonal flow locally. However, the core global models are teasing chilly Canadian High pressure after Veteran's Day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Satellite shows earlier widespread stratus has cleared the terminals with FEW to SCT clouds expected through the evening in the 3-6kft range. Clouds increase in coverage overnight with the approach of a cold front, with a few hours of LLWS favored ahead of the front as winds near 2kft approach 45 knots. This front will also bring rain showers after 09z continuing through the end of the TAF period. The combination of showers and increasing low-level moisture will cause conditions to deteriorate to MVFR, with cigs possibly falling below 2kft after 14z (best chance at FWA). In addition, south to south-southeast winds will be gusting to 25 knots throughout the forecast period.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.