textproduct: Northern Indiana

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions today into Wednesday with highs in the low-to- mid 80s.

- Chances (40-80 percent) for showers and storms return Wednesday evening and persist into Friday. Heavy rain is possible.

- Low chances for showers and storms Saturday into Tuesday(20-40 percent).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Dry conditions with seasonable temperatures continue today with the western side of the upper level ridging still in place. Wednesday morning and into the afternoon looks to also remain dry however, we will see the advertised trough and associated cold front begin to push into the region tomorrow. Some uncertainty now exists with latest guidance and synoptic conditions indicating that the main energy/cold pool associated with the trough centered over central Canada may push further north (staying within Canada's borders). This would make the cold pool behind the cold front weaker and would also orphan the front and would become washed out and make for much slower progression of the boundary. This boundary though still looks to act as a focal point for lifting and will allow for some convection to develop along its lateral. With adequate moisture present (PWATs still around 1.5 to 2 inches) and the slow speed of the boundary will make for favorable training of cells to potentially create heavier rainfall wherever the boundary sits over. WPC has portions of our area under a marginal risk for exceeding flash flood guidance each day from Wednesday night through Friday morning. Looks like the more widespread coverage of the marginal flood risk would be on Thursday when the front is draped across the CWA. There is currently no expected severe weather threat at this time per SPC which makes sense with the lack of energy/cold pool and slow movement of the boundary.

The other big change to the longer term forecast looks to be a longer duration of the cyclonic flow and more of a zonal flow aloft by the end of the weekend. This would keep us more on the cooler and drier side providing continued seasonable conditions with periods of showers, mainly in the afternoon possible. But still need to watch into next week as a building ridge over the southeast may push northward and that would make for hotter and more humid conditions for the CWA. At this time though the longer range guidance does keep us north of the more humid/hotter airmass. So a bit more uncertainty seems to have made it's way into the forecast this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM EDT Tue Aug 4 2026

High pressure over Indiana will provide tranquil conditions during the TAF period, including wind less than 10 knots. Increasing clouds late in the period, but remaining VFR, as a cold front slowly approaches from the west. Lingering dry air looks to preclude any -SHRA mention at this time. Cannot completely rule out patchy ground fog near daybreak Wednesday.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.