textproduct: Northern Indiana

KEY MESSAGES

- A moderate swim risk is in effect for Berrien County beaches today. Waves of 2-3 ft and currents are expected.

- Widespread rain with a few embedded thunderstorms is expected late Sunday. Most locations will receive 0.5-1.5" of rain with pockets of 2" or more possible along and south of US-24.

- Highs will remain in the 70s for much of the upcoming week with additional chances for rain mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Weak shortwave currently shearing out just north of our CWA. A few showers noted in radar/surface obs but dry/stable low levels and weak forcing keeping coverage and amounts very limited. This activity is expected to exit our SE zones right around 12Z with mostly sunny skies for the rest of today and into the early overnight. Peak solstice sun angle will likely once again push highs very near 80F despite cool-ish 850mb temps.

Late Sunday remains the primary focus for this forecast package as a more formidable shortwave ejects out of the Central Plains. Right entrance upper jet dynamics will yield increasing low level warm/moist air advection into at least our southern zones by late afternoon. Earlier noted trend toward a surface low track just south of our CWA continued in the 00Z guidance and lowers the risk of severe weather. There are still a few exceptions (such as the 3km NAM) which still lift the surface low into our area. While it certainly still bears watching, this is looking more like an outlier. Of slightly greater concern is the potential for some pockets of heavier rain in our SE zones. Still looks like a widespread 0.5-1.5" for our CWA (lowest north) with some potential for pockets of 2" or more in our southeast where better moisture convergence will reside. A more southern track limits even the elevated instability though with poor midlevel lapse rates and PW values stay generally below 2" outside of our far S/SE. A flood watch may eventually be needed for parts of our south but uncertainty with instability/rainfall amounts results in confidence too low for watch issuance at this time. Our forecast area also luckily missed out on the very heavy rain which fell over southern Indiana Wed night and we should be able to handle 1-2" of rain with minimal impacts.

Showers exit Mon morning and expect dry conditions through Tue. Persistent negative height anomaly over eastern Canada will maintain cool WNW flow with highs in the 70s through Fri. Several weak midlevel perturbations will also yield periodic chances for rain and a few storms mid-late week. A return to more typical summer weather looks to arrive next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM EDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR through the period. West-northwest winds gusting 15-25 knots at times this afternoon will become light and variable tonight as weak sfc ridging settles in.

IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

IN...None. OH...None. MI...None. MARINE...None.