textproduct: Indianapolis

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer than normal temperatures expected through next weekend

- Chances for rain through Monday, focused over the northwest half of central Indiana

- Near record warmth Monday-Tuesday ahead of possibly more widespread showers Tuesday/Tuesday night

SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Rest of This Afternoon...

Mid level clouds covered all but far eastern sections of central Indiana early this afternoon. radar shows some light rain/sprinkles across eastern Illinois, moving into far northwestern portions of the forecast area.

The initial round of isentropic lift that was producing the light rain early this afternoon will continue to push northeast. Will keep some chance PoPs northwest with some slight chance PoPs or a sprinkles mention farther southwest. Any rain that falls will help moisten the lower layer of the atmosphere.

Warm temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s will continue.

Tonight...

Weaker isentropic lift will continue this evening, but lift will increase overnight as the low level jet increases. The jet will also bring in moisture. Southerly surface winds will bring in additional moisture for the low levels. thwest flow aloft will continue to allow warm and moist flow across Indiana and the TAF sites. Mainly mid cloud ceilings are expected, resulting in VFR Conditions. A moderate LLJ, over 40 knts pushing through the Wabash Valley, will pass across the area tonight. This could result in some LLWS due to speed.

Some MVFR ceilings are possible on Monday as a wave of forcing arrives during the late morning hours producing showers and some lower cigs.

As the forcing departs by mid Monday afternoon, showers will end, but VFR Cigs will remain. Believe there will be enough forcing and moisture to go likely category or higher PoPs by late tonight in the far northwest, with lower PoPs to the southwest where forcing will be weaker.

Southerly winds plus cloud cover will keep temperatures unseasonably warm for lows, with low temperatures around 60 to the lower 60s.

Monday...

Similar conditions will continue on Monday. 850mb winds will be around 50kt. Decent moisture will be around thanks to continued southerly flow.

Isentropic lift will continue, but the approach of the left exit region of an upper jet will bring additional forcing, especially to the northwest forecast area.

Will once again go with likely or higher category PoPs across portions of the northwest, with lower PoPs to the southwest (farthest from the forcing).

With a warm start, temperatures may reach the lower to perhaps middle 70s for highs. If clouds are thicker and/or rain more widespread, readings will top out cooler. Even in that scenario readings will be well above normal.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 239 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Monday Night through Tuesday Night...

An impressive 1036mb high over the southern Appalachian Mountains will tighten the pressure gradient Sunday night through Monday as a short wave pushes in from the west. This will create blustery conditions with strong WAA into the Midwest and Ohio Valley regions. Dry antecedent surface air will inhibit moisture transport some, but this WAA should result in widespread cloud cover Monday night, with isolated light showers possible. The combination of widespread cloud cover and strong southerly WAA will lead to well above normal temperatures Monday night. In fact, the overnight low Monday night is likely to remain higher than the average high for early November! We are also on Max-Min record watch with the monthly record maximum low of 63F and the forecast low on Monday night of 63F.

Ensemble members are trending towards a weakening low pressure system as this shortwave reaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday. This is likely due to the wave remaining positively tilted in the WAA regime. The weakening of the low will limit moisture transport/convergence on Tuesday along a passing cold front, reducing overall QPF expectations for central Indiana. This will also keep the bulk of cold air aloft to the west, creating weak mid level lapse rates and lessening thunder probabilities. Still, a band of weak to moderate showers are expected to pass through central Indiana midday Tuesday through Tuesday evening; current QPF expectations are between 0.15" and 0.40" with this frontal passage

Wednesday through Saturday...

Despite the cold front label from Tuesday, the air mass behind this system will remain mild due to continued shortwave development over the Plains, causing a the lack of connection with the cold air over the Canadian Rockies'. This will keep 850mb temperatures in the upper single digits(C), resulting in above normal highs through the extended. These aforementioned shortwaves shouldn't have much of an impact to central Indiana, as high pressure will remain strong just to our S/E. Any impact from these shortwaves will likely be in the form of periods of increased cloud cover and isolated showers.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 623 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024

Impacts:

- Gusty winds through the period. - Non-convective low level wind shear tonight, mainly at BMG - Chance for MVFR ceilings at KLAF on Monday

Discussion:

Southwest flow aloft will continue to allow warm and moist flow across Indiana and the TAF sites. Mainly mid cloud ceilings are expected, resulting in VFR Conditions. A moderate LLJ, over 40 knts pushing through the Wabash Valley, will pass across the area tonight. This could result in some LLWS due to speed.

Some MVFR ceilings are possible on Monday as a wave of forcing arrives during the late morning hours producing showers and some lower cigs.

As the forcing departs by mid Monday afternoon, showers will end, but VFR Cigs will remain.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.


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