textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Near daily rain and occasional thunderstorm chances this week into early next, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall likely from this morning into Saturday

- Widespread minor to moderate flooding expected across central and southern portions of the area, with localized major flooding possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible Friday into early Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth likely Friday and potentially early next week as well

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Another round of light to moderate rainfall with heavier pockets is moving through central Indiana this morning, which will require close monitoring as the ground over central and southern portions of the area is already heavily waterlogged due to a widespread 3-5 plus inches of rain in the past 48 hours. Will maintain the ongoing flood watch through noon as scheduled.

Global and high resolution models are in good agreement that a lull is coming later today once this complex departs the area, though will have to maintain at least chance PoPs with the warm front still in the area. Forecast soundings do depict some weak instability redeveloping this afternoon which may allow renewed development of a few showers and storms this afternoon. Severe threat appears quite minimal through tonight with weak lapse rates.

A lull is expected for much of the area this evening before rain chances increase again from south to north as isentropic lift ramps up again over the area. Weaker overall forcing for ascent suggests significantly lighter amounts, though with climatologically extreme precipitable water values remaining in place, any showers or storms will have the potential to produce pockets of heavy rainfall and a renewed areal or flash flooding threat, in addition to contributing to the developing main stem river flooding problem.

Despite widespread cloud cover today and precip at least early in the day, temperatures should climb well into the 60s across most of the area as the warm front continues to make slow progress northward.

Onset of precip has increased mixing and scavenged fog droplets, allowing visibilities to improve dramatically and allowing substantial trimming of the dense fog advisory. Will be able to allow the remainder to end on schedule in the next couple of hours.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

As the area moves into the open warm sector on Friday into Friday evening, another lull in precip is likely, as at least some capping will be present, though a few storms cannot completely be ruled out Friday afternoon, which could pose an isolated severe threat given a bit more substantial instability aloft and adequate deep layer shear.

More widespread showers and storms are likely late Friday night into Saturday as the cold front finally makes its way through the region. Again, precipitable water values will be extreme for the time of year, posing a heavy rainfall threat on heavily saturated ground. Though frontal timing appears unlikely to be diurnally favorable for severe, fairly strong deep layer shear and at least weak instability may allow for one or more lines or clusters of weakening storms from upstream to move into the area and pose at least an isolated severe threat during this time frame as well, though hydrologic concerns will be by far the more pressing issue.

In the wake of frontal passage, we look to see at least a 48 hour or so dry period, though this will only marginally improve the soil moisture conditions given what may end up being a widespread 4-8+ inches of rainfall in 4-5 days time by the time dry weather returns Saturday night. Rain chances will return again by late Monday into Tuesday as a closed low moving out of the southwestern CONUS directs large scale moisture transport back into the region by early to mid week.

Widespread minor to moderate flooding across the entirety of the East Fork White basin, and the lower half or so of the Wabash and White basins, is a virtual certainty given what has already occurred and expectations over the forecast period. The lower portions of these basins where they meet in southwest Indiana will likely see flooding lasting at least a few weeks. Per both the latest deterministic river forecasts and hydrologic ensembles, there is a substantial chance of one or more points reaching major flood stage, and those with interests along area rivers are strongly advised to closely monitor the flooding situation in the coming days and weeks.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through nearly the entire long term period, with records in danger on Friday and potentially early next week as well.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1233 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread IFR or worse conditions much of the period

- Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms expected later tonight into the morning

- Potential for additional thunderstorms Thursday afternoon at southern 3 sites

Discussion:

Low confidence forecast as guidance is struggling with details of the nonetheless very poor flying conditions, but widespread IFR or worse conditions are expected to dominate for much of the period.

Widespread 1/2SM fog or worse is ongoing all but BMG which experienced a thunderstorm in the last hour or two. May see some deterioration back toward lower conditions there but it may not arrive before precip does later tonight.

Thunderstorm complexes upstream look to be largely south of the sites but the embedded thunder in the northern extent of the complex appears likely to impact IND/HUF/BMG after about 08-09Z. This will allow some improvement in conditions at IND/HUF and deterioration at BMG if it has not already.

This precip will last into the mid to late morning hours at least at most sites before tapering off, though additional development is possible at IND/BMG during the afternoon hours, and will carry PROB30 groups here.

Conditions may again deteriorate late in the period though this is heavily dependent upon evolution of precip and highly uncertain.

Winds will be less than 10KT throughout outside of convection and variable, with a tendency toward more southerly/southwesterly direction with time as the warm front begins to try to shift northward.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 5 AM EST early this morning for INZ021- 028>031-035>042.

Flood Watch until noon EST today for INZ043>049-051>057-060>065- 067>072.