textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing clouds tonight and Tuesday.

- Rain chances arrive Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.

- Above normal temperatures expected through Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 154 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows large and broad high pressure in place stretching from Western NY across Indiana to IL. Aloft, water vapor shows ridging in place over the high plains and Rockies. An upper low was found under this ridge over TX. Ahead of the low, a tropical plume of moisture was flowing north across the deep south into the Ohio Valley. GOES19 mainly shows high CI clouds across Indiana associated with this feature.

Tonight...

The large surface high will continue to dominate our weather overnight as it drifts to the northeast. Forecast soundings remain dry amid dry easterly lower level flow. Aloft, the upper low over TX is expected to begin to drift northward. This will also allow the continued flow of high cloud and moisture aloft over the deep south to arrive overnight across Central Indiana. Coverage will be thickest across southern parts of the forecast area, but all in all, this will just be partly cloudy skies. Given the cloud cover, lows should reach the mid and upper 50s.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Small chances for rain will persist starting on late Tuesday and into Wednesday. The first half of Tuesday will continue to be dry, as Indiana remains under the influence of the high pressure system departing east. Additional high cloud will continue to arrive through the day and into Tuesday Night as the low pressure system approaches from the south. The dry easterly surface flow will continue to help keep the lower levels dry. Forecast soundings show a dry column through the day with a cap in place and minimal instability. Thus will aim for a dry day on Tuesday.

Forecast soundings on Tuesday Night and Wednesday morning begin to trend toward saturation, but do not appear to get there. Pwats do get rather high, over 1.5 inches, Forcing does appear to arrive as the previously mentioned upper low pushes a frontal boundary trough across Indiana. An associated weak surface low is also shown to develop. Overall, moderate moisture along moderate forcing will require at least some pops on Tuesday Night into Wednesday morning as thees features pass. Precip amount should be on the lighter side, as lower level gulf moisture doesn't appear to be present.

Dry weather looks to return on Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night as the upper low is kicked east by a the developing NW flow aloft.

Highs on Tuesday and should reach around 80s and reach the lower 80s on Wednesday.

Thursday through Monday...

This period looks to be dominated by dry weather with slightly below normal temperatures. The upper pattern on Thursday over the CONUS looks to develop into a large Omega block pattern, with strong, amplified upper ridging stretching from the deep south, through the Mississippi Valley to Manitoba and Saskatchewan. The first upper low looks to be found over NV and CA, while the other upper low resides over eastern Canada. This will result in cool, northerly flow across Indiana, all the while placing our location in a position of strong subsidence. This results in a strong surface high setting up over Ontario and the Great Lakes through the period, allowing cool, easterly surface flow to arrive in Indiana.

Models keep this pattern in place through Monday as Omega blocks can be difficult to break down. Thus a forecast for dry weather and below normal temperatures during this period will be the way to go for now.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 731 PM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance fog at LAF and BMG. - Chance of showers towards the end of the TAF period.

Discussion:

Some overnight fog will be possible as dew point depressions will be low. Thus have included a tempo group for some brief MVFR visibilities near the diurnal minimum.

High pressure to our north with a weak low pressure system situated to our south should lead to a generally easterly wind through the forecast period.

High-level cloud cover has increased ahead of the low pressure approaching from the south. VFR ceilings should be present through the forecast period. Ceilings may lower to about 10k feet by Tuesday evening as the low and associated rainfall enter Indiana.

Rain chances remain low during the TAF period, peaking at 30 percent between 00z-06z. Rain chances may increase beyond the end of the TAF period. Thunder chances appear low as of right now, under 15 percent. The best rain chances are at HUF, IND, and BMG. Rain showers may not make it far enough north to reach LAF.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.