textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing Clouds tonight and Saturday.

- Rain likely Saturday night into Sunday due to tropical remnants, total amounts trending down.

- Cooler late next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 939 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Temperatures have once again been cooling off faster than recent model guidance. High level cirrus on the fringes of Hurricane Isaias will continue to stream northward, but will remain fairly thin for the next few hours, before gradually increasing and thickening after 06Z per satellite trends. The net result is temperatures will continue to gradually fall another 6-8 degrees from current readings through 06Z before leveling off afterwards. Otherwise rest of forecast remains on track.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 219 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure east of Indiana, over the middle Atlantic states. A warm front was found over IA, extending east into NRN IL. The remnants of a thunderstorm cluster was riding the front over nrn IL. Light SE flow was in place across Central Indiana. High convective debris clouds were found over northern Indiana, moving east and dissipating. The cloud system from the tropical system approaching the gulf coast was spreading northward across KY and TN. Dew points across Indiana were in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tonight...

Partly cloudy skies will be expected this evening as the clouds across the northern half of the state continue to progress eastward while the cloud shield from the south makes steady progression north. The cloud shield should arrive overnight, providing high clouds. Forecast soundings show this saturation aloft arriving overnight, with very dry conditions within the lower levels. Thus increasing clouds will be expected tonight. With the increasing clouds across the area, overnight lows will be slightly warmer, in the lower 50s.

Saturday...

Little overall change is expected on Saturday. The tropical system to the south will continue to progress northward, spreading mid and high cloud cover across Central Indiana through the day The lower levels look to remain dry. HRRR suggests some initial bands of rain could arrive across southern Indiana by late afternoon and early evening, but overall most the day should be mostly cloudy. Temperatures will be somewhat warm and more humid with the arrival of a tropical air mass. Look for highs around 80.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

This window of time will be the most impactful from the Hurricane remnants. Models show the mid level low pushing to KY and across eastern KY on Saturday Night and Sunday respectively. Cyclonic flow will provide ample forcing for moisture that will spread across the northwest side of the system and rain pops will be high. Forecast soundings suggest pwats around 1.5 inches. Best wrap around moisture will be across SE central Indiana, including places like Rushville, North Vernon, Greensburg and Columbus. Thus, highest pops will be used in those locations. Farther north, at LAF and OKK, moisture may not even reach these places, and much lower pops will be used.

Sunday Night...

Forecast soundings show dry air and top down subsidence building in the column on Sunday Night. This will be due to the departure of the remnants to the middle Atlantic states and the arrival of strong upper ridging over the Mississippi valley, building eastward. This will allow a surface high along with its associated ridge axis to build across Indiana from the south. Overall, decreasing cloudiness on Sunday Night.

Monday...

Some upper ridging will bring quiet and warm weather to the area on Monday. Highs will reach the lower and middle 80s.

Tuesday...

A cold front will move through on Tuesday. The front won't have much moisture to work with, so will only have some low PoPs for parts of the area. Highs will generally be in the lower 80s.

Wednesday and beyond...

An upper trough across the southwestern USA will eject and phase with a northern stream trough, creating a large upper system that will influence the eastern half of the country into the first part of the weekend. This will bring first a warm front then a potent cold front through the area.

As is typical with these situations, there remains a good amount of uncertainty in the details. Will thus have broad, mainly chance category PoPs for Wednesday through Friday.

Highs will be in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday, and some 80s are possible depending on how the system develops. Cooler air will begin arriving on Friday, with highs in the 60s.

Some guidance has next Saturday's afternoon temperatures only in the 40s, with a potential frost that night. Will keep an eye on it.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 730 PM EDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Impacts:

-Gusty winds up to 20 kts developing late Saturday afternoon at KBMG and KIND.

-MVFR ceilings and showers developing Saturday evening at KIND.

Discussion:

Bands of cirrus clouds are moving into the southern horizon of the terminals this evening. These clouds are on the far leading edge of Hurricane Isaias. A broad area of high pressure centered over New England is keeping winds mainly out of the E-SE with speeds expected to be generally under 5 kts overnight.

As the remnants of Isaias move northward tonight into Saturday the pressure gradient will begin to increase between this system and the aforementioned high pressure with winds gradually increasing to around 10 kts by early Saturday afternoon. In addition, and more noticeable initially, will be the marked increase in cloud cover than what has been seen around central Indiana for almost a week. Copious high clouds will give way to a broken to overcast mid level cloud deck by early-mid afternoon.

As precipitation associated with the remnants of Isaias move northward, cloud ceilings will lower even more down to the MVFR category for IND by late Saturday evening. Some model guidance hints at possible IFR as soon as 03Z at KIND, but confidence is lacking in that rapid lowering of ceilings heights despite onset of precip. In addition to lowering ceilings, winds will begin to gust during the late afternoon ahead of the precip as well as during the precip with momentum transfer of stronger winds aloft likely to be enhanced initially.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.