textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry today and Monday but upper level smoke will spread over the area

- Growing concern for numerous strong to severe thunderstorms Monday night and again Tuesday

- Noticeably cooler and less humid for the middle to latter part of the week behind a cold front

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Hazy morning over central Indiana as the smoke layer aloft has been drawn into the region courtesy of N/NE winds in wake of the frontal passage Saturday evening. Slightly cooler and less humid with 13Z temperatures ranging from the mid 60s to the lower 70s.

Forecast is in good shape for the rest of the day as high pressure settles over the Great Lakes. Frontal boundary has drifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valley as drier air has advected into the region. The axis of deeper moisture remains in close enough proximity to the lower Wabash Valley that a stray shower cannot be entirely ruled out in the Vincennes area this afternoon but the primary focus for convective development will be southwest of the forecast area. The elevated smoke layer will maintain hazy conditions and a bit of a milky sky throughout the day with scattered diurnal cu developing as well. Low level thermals support highs ranging from the low 80s north to the upper 80s over far southern parts of central Indiana.

Zone and grid updates out.

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A drier and slightly cooler airmass will settle into the region today through tomorrow as high pressure moves through. Unfortunately, this will return wildfire smoke from Canada in the upper levels, some of which could mix down near the surface. Air Quality Alerts are in effect for all but far southern portions of central Indiana for both days to account for the smoke impacts. Return flow on the back side of the high by Monday afternoon will push the smoke back north.

A stronger cold front will move in bringing with it chances for convection and heavy rainfall as well as a threat for severe weather Monday night through Tuesday. Signals are showing the potential for an MCS to develop and track southeastward through the region. While models diverge some, limiting confidence on detail of its development, damaging winds look to be the main threat at the moment as well as heavy rainfall.

In the wake of this front, surface high pressure will bring cooler and even drier air leading to a pleasant latter half of the week. Going into the weekend, a return to near normal temperatures looks probably as the high exits and can't rule out the potential for precipitation.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Impacts:

- Smoke will cause hazy skies

Discussion:

VFR conditions are largely expected throughout the TAF period. The few caveats would be lingering fog at the top of the period at LAF and then smoke aloft could create hazy conditions, potentially impacting visibilities. Winds will stay below 10 kt from the NE.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.