textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances diminish this morning from west to east

- Rain chances return Sunday and will continue for much of the next week. Temperatures will be above normal for much of the period

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 908 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast with conditions generally evolving as expected. Rainfall is now mostly limited to light showers across the far southern counties with weak lift behind the exiting surface low currently across northwestern Ohio. The lowered visibilities due to patchy fog and drizzle have mostly gone away with most sites now at or above 6 miles. The low clouds will persist across the forecast area through the early afternoon hours before gradually lifting and dissipating.

Forecast highs in the mid 70s look reasonable at this time based on latest hi-res model guidance and the current expected cloud cover, but if clouds persist longer than expected a small downward adjustment may be needed.

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Issued at 303 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Early This Morning...

Upper energy along with surface low pressure will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers along with some drizzle across central Indiana early this morning. With limited instability, thunder has been confined to areas south and east of the area, and even then is isolated.

As the low continues to move slowly northeast, similar conditions will persist for a while, then coverage will start to diminish toward 12Z as the low gets farther to the east.

The threat for heavy rain continues to diminish with the chances for rain, so will likely cancel the Flood Watch early.

Today...

By 12Z, only roughly the eastern half of the area will still have some PoPs (a tail of which will extend across the southwest early). Will keep PoPs below the likely category given forcing will be mainly east of the area. PoPs will then diminish from west to east during the morning, with most areas dry by early afternoon.

With no real push of dry air behind the system, clouds will likely linger well into the afternoon before more sunshine appears. This will keep temperatures relatively cool into the early afternoon, with most areas experiencing highs late in the day. Those late day highs will generally be in the lower to middle 70s, with the lowest readings northeast.

Tonight and Sunday...

Much of the night will be quiet, but as forcing from upper energy approaches late, some isolated to scattered showers may arrive in the western third of the area by 12Z Sunday.

Models are hinting that forcing on Sunday could come from two close but separate upper impulses. How these interact could impact the timing of the best chances for rain. If their forcing is closer to each other, showers and storms may move through faster with most of it east by 20Z (4 PM EDT). However, if one lags, rain will linger into late afternoon/early evening.

With plentiful moisture lingering behind Saturday's system, the impulses should be able to generate numerous showers Sunday afternoon. Will go likely PoPs most areas, with highest PoPs in the afternoon. Didn't try to get detailed with the afternoon PoPs given the uncertainties mentioned above.

There will be enough instability for a few thunderstorms, but parameters do not support severe storms.

Lows tonight will be around 60, with highs in the upper 70s to around 80 on Sunday if more cloud cover/shower coverage holds off until afternoon.

Memorial Day...

Surface high pressure will nudge into the northern forecast area on Memorial Day and provide dry conditions there. The southern forecast area will remain close enough to an old front for some low PoPs, but confidence isn't high in these PoPs with overall weak forcing.

Tuesday and beyond...

A lingering surface front to the south of the area combined with moisture and some upper waves at times will keep chances for rain in the forecast through next week. Stronger upper waves may bring better chances for rain around Wednesday, but confidence is low in any details with uncertainties in the timing and strength of the upper waves.

Above normal temperatures will continue for much of the period, with perhaps closer to normal readings returning early next weekend.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 554 AM EDT Sat May 23 2026

Impacts:

- Poor flying conditions through around 15Z with IFR and LIFR at times - Patchy fog and drizzle/light rain very early in the period - Gradual improvement from around 15Z onward with VFR potentially returning by 22-24Z - Potential for more fog tonight

Discussion:

Poor flying conditions will persist as surface low pressure exits the area into the mid-morning hours. Patchy drizzle/fog and light showers will continue very early in the period.

Some uncertainty remains on how fast ceilings will improve today, but continued to trend more pessimistic with the return to VFR, which could occur closer to 00Z Sunday.

If clouds remain scattered long enough tonight, some fog could develop.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.