textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs in the 70s today with highs in the low 80s expected by Tuesday

- Wind gusts up to 30-35 mph today and 30-40 mph Tuesday

- Expect a more active and wet pattern late Tuesday through Saturday

- A few strong t-storms possible across northwest portions of central IN Tuesday afternoon through early Tuesday night

SHORT TERM (Today through Wednesday Night)

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Tuesday morning as surface ridging remains across the region. The surface ridging extends into the area from high pressure near the southeast coast which will continue shifting east with time. A tightening pressure gradient between the departing high and a developing low pressure system near the Plains supports strengthening S/SW flow. This will warm temperatures into the 70s by this afternoon. Deep mixing is expected to promote gusts between 30-35 mph at times. Stronger winds are likely Tuesday as the developing low pressure system approaches. Look for gusts up to 40 mph during the day.

The quiet pattern comes to an end by late Tuesday once the aforementioned system moves into the region. Guidance still shows slight disagreement regarding the track and evolution of this system leading to some uncertainty in the forecast. Models are coming into better agreement though depicting a developing surface low moving through the Great Lakes Region. Meanwhile, moisture advection and daytime heating ahead of an associated cold front promotes destabilization. Thunderstorms are expected to develop roughly from central IL northeastward to northern Indiana along the approaching cold front by the late afternoon hours. These storms should then eventually propagate towards central Indiana as the front pushes southeastward.

At least modest instability and effective shear may support organized convection Tuesday evening into the early overnight hours across northwest portions of central Indiana. Isolated damaging wind gusts and large hail would be the primary threats. Instability will likely diminish in typical diurnal fashion given weak low-level theta-e advection ahead of the front. This will limit the overall severe threat if storms move in after sunset. The frontal boundary is expected to stall near the area by Tuesday night. Localized flooding becomes the main hazard overnight into Wednesday as repeated rounds of storms are possible.

Confidence in the flooding threat remains limited due to diverging model solutions, but the stalled boundary will keep precipitation chances elevated through Wednesday night. Warm air advection should warm temperatures into the uppers 70s and low 80s on Tuesday. The aforementioned front and greater rain chances will then help cool temperatures midweek.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Sunday)

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Thursday through Sunday...

Thursday through Saturday Night looks to be an active, warm and wet pattern with dry weather arriving for Sunday.

Starting on Thursday, Models suggest a moderate upper wave just over the plains, pushing forcing dynamics through the Mississippi Valley. This upper wave will pass through the area on Thursday. Meanwhile within the lower levels, low pressure and an associated cold front looks to be approaching and passing on Thursday Night into Friday. This will place central Indiana within the warm sector on Thursday with warm southerly winds in place as the front approaches. Given these ingredients and the approaching front, pops will be needed by Thursday afternoon and Thursday Night, with highs in the 70s.

On Friday into Friday Night, little in the way of upper forcing appears to pass within the flow aloft as weak ridging appears. However within the lower levels the remnants of the previous systems frontal boundary are suggested to be lingering across Central Indiana. Given the lingering boundary and the continued arrival of warm and humid air into the region, pops will still be needed on Friday and Friday Night, but confidence for rain at that time remains low due to a lack of organized forcing.

Our second upper wave arrives on late Saturday into Saturday night. This moderate upper wave within the flow aloft will pass into the Great Lakes on Saturday night into Sunday, again spreading ample forcing dynamics across Indiana. A surface cold front will once again accompany this feature, passing across Indiana on Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night. There is better confidence for high pops at that time due to the expected ingredient being present.

Subsidence and high pressure looks to arrive in the wake of the front for Sunday. This should bring dry, but cooler weather.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 609 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Impacts:

- VFR is expected during this TAF period. - Gusty SSW winds of 25-30 kt during the day today

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected today and tonight. GOES19 shows a deck of mid clouds over IL amid warm air advection drifting east within the flow aloft. These clouds are expected to pass across the TAF sites today, providing VFR Cigs. A moderate pressure gradient will be in place across Indiana also. Models suggest 40 knt LLJ streaming across central Indiana. Thus with favorable heating and mixing today, some gusts around 35 knts will be possible.

Gusts should subside after sunset as mixing and heating is lost. Forecast soundings this evening trend toward a dry forecast leading to manly clear skies and continued VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.