textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered snow showers tonight. Some may be briefly intense

- Flurries and isolated snow showers on Saturday

- Well-below normal temperatures this weekend into early next week with subzero wind chills at times

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 259 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Light precipitation ahead of an occluded front will continue to push east of much of central Indiana this afternoon. However, precipitation may linger in portions of the southern forecast area as they will be close to additional forcing from an increasing mid level jet. Will keep some mainly chance or lower PoPs as needed for the remainder of the afternoon.

Colder air moves in aloft this evening, increasing lapse rates across the area. Forcing will increase as an upper low approaches from the northwest, and a surface cold front approaches from the west. These will allow scattered snow showers to develop. Overnight, the cold front will move through, keeping forcing and thus the scattered snow showers going.

The snow squall parameter increases tonight, indicating the potential for stronger snow showers/squalls. While don't believe that criteria for snow squall warnings would be reached, localized intense snow showers are possible.

Given the expected scattered nature of the snow showers, will keep PoPs below the likely category. Overall snow amounts will be less than an inch for areas that see snow, but localized higher amounts are possible.

Lows tonight will range from the lowers 20s northwest to the upper 20s southeast.

On Saturday, the upper trough will move into the area later in the day. Cyclonic flow will continue at the surface. Some guidance still has positive snow squall parameter values. Moisture is more limited on Saturday though.

Will go with slight chance PoPs and flurries mention for now on Saturday and will continue to monitor.

Thanks to cold advection, temperatures won't do much, with readings generally remaining in the 20s.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 259 PM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

A large upper level trough will overtake much of the CONUS and Canada this weekend into the start of next week. With it, the associated low will be near the Great Lakes and a few short waves will move through during that time. This set up will help to bring a surge of cold air and breezy conditions for the first part of the long term, leaving wind chills near to below zero from Sunday to Tuesday. Coldest temperatures and highest wind gusts are expected Monday with highs in the teens for most of central Indiana and gusts up to around 30 mph. Lowest wind chills will be Monday and Tuesday mornings, widespread below zero and as low as -15 to maybe -20 across the northern part of the forecast area. Be prepared by bundling up in layers and minimizing time outdoors.

At the surface, high pressure should largely dominate through early to mid next week leaving a mostly dry forecast, although can't rule out periods of flurries from the passing short waves.

Going into mid to late next week, the upper trough will start to loosen up and temperatures are expected to return back to near normal in the mid to upper 30s. Models are also showing a surface low possibly moving into the through the area the latter part of next week which will bring the next best chance for precipitation in the area, likely to see a mix of snow and rain.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1153 AM EST Fri Jan 16 2026

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs at times this afternoon, then more widespread tonight

-Chance for light snow early in the period

-Scattered snow showers tonight

-Southwesterly wind gusts to 25kt through 00Z

Discussion:

An initial band of light snow will continue to move east early in the period and may impact KIND/KBMG with mostly MVFR visibility and ceilings. Areas of MVFR ceilings will linger behind the snow.

Colder air moving in tonight will produce scattered snow showers. MVFR and worse visibility is possible in the snow showers. MVFR ceilings will become more widespread, especially at the eastern sites.

Uncertainty remains on sky cover on Saturday but some low VFR/high MVFR ceilings are possible, with some flurries.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.