textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain ending late this afternoon.

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph tonight

- Snow showers possible late tonight.

- Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday morning with the potential for light snow showers late Wednesday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad area of low pressure over Ohio and the Great Lakes. An associated cold front was found pushing across Indiana. Aloft, a deep upper low was found over MN, with a clear signature found within water vapor imagery. The low was associated with a deep upper trough, stretching across IA, MO/KS to the southern plains. This was resulting in southwest flow across Indiana, ahead of the approaching surface trough. Radar shows an area of showers pushing into Western and Central Indiana.

Tonight...

Models suggest strong cyclonic flow in place aloft as the upper low pushes southeast to MI. A trough pivoting around the low is expected to push across Indiana overnight, providing some forcing. Within the lower levels a weak trough is noted passing, poised to push across Indiana overnight while much strong high pressure builds across the plains. Time heights and forecast soundings show good lower and mid level saturation with this weak trough and HRRR suggest a quick moving band of snow showers pushing across the state associated with this within the cyclonic flow. At this point forecast soundings show the entire column below freezing due to ongoing cold air advection. Overall forcing and moisture remains limited, thus snow is expected but amounts and impacts should be quite minimal for this short duration, quick moving event. Of note, the strong pressure gradient across the area will once again lead to gusty winds tonight and on Sunday. Given the strong cold air advection, lows tonight will into the lower 20s.

Sunday...

Quiet but cold weather will return to the area for Sunday. The previous low pressure system will continue to rapidly depart northeast, allowing the strong surface high pressure system over the plains to build across Indiana through the day. This will lead to a gradual shift shift of morning cyclonic flow to afternoon anti- cyclonic flow. Aloft, ridging in the wake of the departed upper trough will develop over the upper midwest, placing Indiana within NW flow and subsidence. Thus this will lead to a mostly cloudy start to the day with decreasing cloudiness expected in the afternoon. Given the cold air mass in place over Indiana Highs will only reach the upper 20s to around 30.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 250 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Sunday night through Wednesday...

Model guidance depicts mostly quiet weather to begin the extended as surface ridging remains across the area. Impulses moving through aloft will enhance cloud cover at times early in the work week, but very limited moisture return should inhibit any precipitation. A more organized system is then expected to push a frontal boundary across central Indiana late Tuesday into Wednesday.

Sufficient moisture and strengthening dynamics from the approaching disturbance will promote increasing precipitation chances. Thermal profiles suggest rain as the dominant precipitation type through Tuesday night. Falling temperatures due to cold air advection behind the departing cold front should allow for some light snow to mix in Wednesday.

Highs in the low-mid 40s will warm into the mid 40s to low 50s within persistent southwesterly flow. Highs then fall into the mid 30s to low 40s Wednesday once colder air filters in Wednesday. Breezy conditions are likely each day as a sufficient pressure gradient remains.

Wednesday night through next Saturday...

A few light snow showers or flurries may linger through early Thursday morning before surface high pressure builds across the region. Quiet weather conditions are then likely for much of the day due to increasing large scale subsidence. Expect cold air advection to continue trending temperatures colder. Lows wednesday night are likely going to range from the mid teens to low 20s with highs on Thursday in the upper 20s to low 30s. Wind chills Wednesday night into Thursday morning may fall into the single digits for areas near or north of I-70.

Another deep trough approaching late week into next weekend will promote additional low chances for precipitation. Thermal profiles suggest snow would be the predominant precipitation type as colder air remains over the region. Exact details remain uncertain due to diverging model solutions, but relatively weak forcing and marginal moisture return should keep any QPF amounts light. Below normal temperatures are likely to persist with deep troughing over the eastern CONUS.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 923 PM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Impacts:

- Snow showers possible overnight, brief drop in vis possible - MVFR ceilings return again late tonight through part of Sunday - WNW gusts to 20-30kt again overnight through midday

Discussion:

The TAF period will start off with mostly clear skies but prior to midnight clouds will return with chance of snow showers through the night. Ceilings are expected to drop back to MVFR with this band of snow and could remain into midday although there is low confidence on when the ceilings lift. A quick drop in vis will also be possible within the snow, further west some sites have dropped to a mile or less. Not sure it will drop that low within central Indiana but possible. LAF will have the best chance of lowest vis. Wind gusts of up to 20-30 kts will return tonight and should last through midday tomorrow.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.