textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70

- Rain ends this evening

- Well above normal temperatures into next week

- Additional rain likely next week, primarily Tuesday into Wednesday, which may prolong the flooding situation

- Strong storms possible mid-week next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

The back edge of the main area of rain and embedded thunderstorms continues to move east northeast across the area this afternoon. This area will exit central Indiana by late afternoon. A rumble of thunder remains possible with this area, but strong storms are not expected with limited instability.

Meanwhile, a cold front was approaching the area from central Illinois. Surface observations show some light rain with the front, with visibility dropping to a couple of miles in spots. Winds were gusting to near 30kt ahead and behind the front.

Will have high PoPs across the southeast this afternoon, with lower PoPs elsewhere outside of the vicinity of the cold front. Will have a narrow band of higher PoPs with the front as it moves east, up to the likely category.

This evening, will keep some chance PoPs in the southeast to cover the front's exit. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected tonight. Gusty winds early this evening will diminish as the front moves farther to the east.

Colder air flowing in will bring temperatures closer to where they should be in early March, with lows generally in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

High pressure will be the main influence across the area on Sunday. With cooler and drier air in place, sunny to mostly sunny conditions are expected for most of the day. With the sunshine, temperatures will rebound to around 60 for highs.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 152 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Sunday night and Monday will be quiet with near zonal upper flow becoming southwest and high pressure in control. Temperatures will be well above normal by Monday with highs around 70.

Models are in better agreement that northern and southern stream systems will phase near the middle of the country and become a decent upper trough. This trough will move through by around Thursday.

The system will have a surface cold front and low pressure system that will bring rain chances from Tuesday through Wednesday night. Integrated water vapor transport progs show plentiful moisture being brought into the area for the system to work with. This will bring a threat for heavy rain to the area once again, which could prolong or worsen ongoing flooding across the southern forecast area.

There is a potential for severe convection around Wednesday as well, with warm temperatures (70s Tuesday and around 70 Wednesday) working with the moisture and strong wind fields that are expected to be present. However, uncertainty remains high in specifics as they will depend on timing and other details that remain unknown this far out.

Colder air will flow in behind the system and keep temperatures near or below normal into next weekend. Another (but weaker) low pressure system could bring some precipitation chances at the end of the week.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Mar 7 2026

Impacts:

- Showers most persistent at KBMG this afternoon

- Wind gusts near 25kt possible this afternoon

- Cold front will shift winds to W/NW late afternoon

- MVFR ceilings becoming more predominant this afternoon, persisting through much of tonight

Discussion:

Showers will diminish at KIND but persist at KBMG this afternoon. A line of showers with a cold front will move NW to SE through the sites roughly in the 21-00Z time frame. Afterward, dry conditions are expected.

MVFR ceilings will become widespread this afternoon and persist through much of the night. Sunday will be VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.