textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers are possible late tonight and Saturday morning

- Widespread rain will be around for Sunday into early Monday, with heavy rain and isolated severe storms possible

- Below normal temperatures will continue for much of the period

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 941 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Only minor adjustments made to the hourly temperatures over the next couple of hours to account for slightly faster than expected warming this morning. Highs may top out a degree or two above the upper 70s that are forecast based on current 850mb temps, but will continue to monitor that going into the afternoon.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Today...

Quiet weather is expected today with surface high pressure in control. Passing high clouds will give way to some cumulus this afternoon, so skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy. Highs today will be in the middle 70s north to around 80 south.

Tonight and Saturday...

A weakening upper trough will move into the lower Great Lakes by 12Z Saturday, and an associated weak cold front will move into Indiana. Moisture will be limited for this system to work with. Still, feel there will be enough for isolated showers to make it into the northern forecast area very late tonight into Saturday morning.

By afternoon, forcing will have weakened enough that chances for showers will be too low to mention, so will go dry. (Odds are very low but non-zero, so a rogue shower could still pop up Saturday afternoon.)

Lows tonight will mainly be around 60 with highs on Saturday in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Sunday and Monday...

A stronger upper wave and associated surface low pressure system will move through the area during this time. This system will have much better moisture to work with good moisture transport into the area. Forcing combined with this moisture will bring widespread rainfall to the area, especially Sunday afternoon and night.

In addition, the system will have decent shear and instability with it. This will lead to a threat of isolated strong to perhaps severe storms. However, at the moment it looks like heavy rain will be the main threat. Rainfall totals over 2 inches are possible.

Tuesday and beyond...

Tuesday will be quiet, but a couple of upper systems could bring rain to the area Wednesday into Friday. Confidence in the strength and timing of these remains low, so will have some broadbrushed lower PoPs.

The upper pattern will keep temperatures below normal through the period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 627 AM EDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Impacts:

- WNW winds gusts near 20kt this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with any fog mixing out by or shortly after valid time.

Passing high clouds will give way to scattered to broken VFR cumulus this afternoon. These will diminish by early evening, but more mid cloud will increase tonight. Isolated showers are possible at KLAF after 06Z Saturday, but coverage is expected to be too low to mention.

Winds will increase during the morning with gusts developing by early afternoon. These will persist until early evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.