textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain ending today, skies will remain mostly cloudy.

- Slight warmer on Thursday and again on Friday.

- More showers are expected on Friday Night. A thunderstorm possible.

- Largely below normal temperatures through Tuesday with more chances for rain on Sunday.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 214 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a trough of low pressure stretching from NE PA across OH to central KY. High pressure was found over the Dakotas and MT, spilling SE across the plains and into the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows a plume of tropical moisture stretching from TX to MO, across Indiana and then NE to the St. Lawrence Valley. Radar shows a large area of showers beneath this plume, in the wake of the front stretching from NY State across IN to MO. Aloft, broad cyclonic flow was in place due to a deep area of low pressure over NRN Quebec. A trough axis rotating around that low was moving through the upper midwest, with the previously discussed plume of moisture streaming ahead of it.

Today...

The upper trough axis is expected to sag father south. This will also steer the moisture plume farther south, and away from Indiana later this morning, bringing an end to the rain. Still abundant clouds and moisture will remain, allowing for continued mostly cloudy skies through the day. Forecast soundings suggest mid level clouds remaining through the day. Thus will keep some ongoing pops this morning, before trending toward a dry forecast this afternoon. Given the clouds and north winds in place, will keep highs in the upper 50s.

Tonight...

The upper trough axis will sag farther southeast, allowing for more subsidence to arrive within the mid levels. Furthermore the high pressure system over the plains will continue to build across Indiana. Thus, dry weather will be expected with decreasing cloud cover. Ongoing cold air advection should allow temperatures to fall into the upper 30s to around 40.

Thursday...

Mainly dry weather will be found across southern parts of central Indiana as the surface high and westerly winds continue to remain dominate. Forecast soundings here show mainly a dry column. However across the northern parts of the forecast area a quick moving short wave moving through the cyclonic upper flow is expected to pass. Mid levels suggest saturation during the afternoon, but lower levels look to remain rather dry with dew points in the 30s. Thus at a minimum increasing clouds will be found on Thursday as this wave passes. Some sprinkles or very light rain showers resulting in 0.01 or 0.02 inches of rain could be possible. Will include some low pops, but confidence for measurable rain is low. Warm air advection will be starting, allowing warmer highs in the lower 60s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Cool and dry NW flow will remain in place aloft. Little in the way of forcing dynamics appear to pass, while surface high pressure remains over the southeastern states. This will allow for a warmer, southerly flow of air to return to Indiana but the column will remain dry. Look for partly cloudy skies then, with warmer highs on Friday reaching the upper 60s to near 70.

Friday Night...

A weak short wave is suggested to pass on Friday night. This will be our next best chance for organized rainfall. A weak surface trough will accompany the the upper wave. Forecast soundings show the arrival of deep saturation on Friday night with pwats reaching over 1 inch. A moderate 40 knt LLJ will also be present. Thus will include at least high likely pops as these features pass on Friday night.

Saturday through Tuesday...

Continued passing weather systems will bring chances for rain to central Indiana nearly every other day during this period. Showers may be lingering for a little while on Saturday morning as a cold front and low pressure system that is expected to pass on Friday night could be lingering through the morning hours on Saturday. Otherwise, Saturday should evolve into a dry and warmer day. Ridging and high pressure are shown to quickly set up east of Indiana on Saturday, allowing a southerly flow of warm air to arrive.

Rain chances will return on late Saturday night and into Sunday as yet another cold front and surface low pressure system will pass across Indiana. Accompanying this low will be an upper short wave providing ample dynamics. Forecast soundings suggest deep saturation on late Saturday and into Sunday. Thus will use high pops and cooler temperatures as these features pass.

Sunday Night into Monday will transition into dry weather as ridging builds across the Rockies, resulting in lee side NW flow spilling across the plains into the Ohio Valley. This will result in subsidence and high pressure building across Indiana.

By Tuesday, the surface high drifts east of Indiana, allowing warmer, southwesterly return flow to develop once again. A warm front is suggested to pass through the afternoon. THis feature may be capable of producing some light showers as it arrives as broad lift is indicated.

Overall, temperatures will remain at or below seasonal normals with the exception of Saturday.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1211 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- IFR conditions through much of the overnight. - Improvement to VFR towards and after 10Z-12Z. - Rain ends by 14Z with a return to VFR.

Discussion:

Radar shows a continual steady stream of light rain streaming toward the TAF sites, stretching west to southern MO. This steady stream of rain will continue to fall across the TAF sites overnight, providing mainly IFR to MVFR Cigs. Improvement will be at LAF first as the rain sags southward, with eventual improvement at HUF and IND followed by BMG.

Forecast soundings today keep at least some mid level cloudiness across the area through the afternoon and into the evening, however much of this saturation appears to be at mid, VFR, levels.

Overall, after the front sags southward along with the associated rain, surface high pressure over the plains will begin to control our weather and cause a return to VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.