textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunderstorms to move through today, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening; damaging winds will be the primary concern. Non-thunderstorm gusts up to 35 mph are also probable today

- Drier and cooler weather Sunday through early next week. Potential for lows in the low to mid 30 Monday through Wednesday mornings. Below 30 is possible Tuesday morning. Frost or freeze conditions possible.

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

A low pressure system is passing to the north of the area while the associated cold front will push from west to east today. Early this morning the cold front is draped through western Illinois into Missouri with a line of thunderstorms along it. Ahead of the front isolated to scattered showers exist, some of which have made their way into western Indiana.

The front and more widespread showers and storms should reach the forecast area around or shortly after daybreak and continuing eastward today before exiting to the east likely by midnight. There will be stronger winds aloft with this front, so wind gusts of up to 35 mph are possible this afternoon. Within stronger storms, severe winds could mix down the surface. Otherwise, no other severe threat is expected for central Indiana.

Temperatures will remain warm for much of the day before dropping behind the cold front this afternoon to evening. From tonight through Tuesday, temperatures instead be near to below normal with highs generally in the 50s and lows in the 30s. High pressure will start to influence central Indiana Sunday helping to diminish cloud coverage, bring calmer winds to the area, and drier conditions. The surface high will pass through the area Monday night into Tuesday allowing for the coldest temps then. Monday night is currently forecasted to be near to below freezing for most of central Indiana and will likely need frost or freeze headlines. Still monitoring trends for just how low temps will get that night.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Friday)

Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The mid to late week period will be characterized by a return to above normal temperatures as Canadian high pressure exits to the east and the pattern shifts back toward a somewhat complex arrangement of large scale troughing, particularly over the western CONUS, and broad warm advection in the low levels as a frontal zone fluctuates from near the area to the north central Plains/upper Midwest in response to the influence of multiple disturbances.

One additional morning of frost/freeze concerns appears likely Wednesday morning, with lows largely in the 50s thereafter, and highs largely in the 70s, with the exception of Wednesday when highs may only reach the mid to upper 60s.

Low chances for precipitation will be necessary, mainly over northwestern portions at times from Thursday onward, though significant uncertainty exists here with respect to frontal positioning and the potential for convection triggered by the front to organize and perhaps move further into the region via thermodynamic influences.

Nonetheless, our cooldown will be mercifully brief with warmer temperatures returning for the latter portion of the week, with indications of an active pattern returning and above normal temperatures and precip continuing into mid April.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 631 AM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Impacts:

- Wind shear threat early this morning - Gusts around 25+KT much of the period - Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms much of the morning into the afternoon hours - Widespread MVFR conditions with the rain

Discussion:

Rain is headed towards central Indiana early this morning, coming in from the west. This line of storms is associated with a cold front that will push through the region Saturday. Ahead of the line will bring a wind shear threat that should diminish by midmorning. Afterwards, wind gusts up to 25KT or slightly higher will take over and last through this evening. Winds will start off out of the south and turn westerly behind the front.

Lighter scattered rain ahead of the line could arrive early this morning then more widespread rain and thunderstorms are expected by midday. MVFR ceilings, as well as visibilities at times, will accompany the line of storms. Best chance of lightning will be midday into the afternoon. Rain is expected to move off to the east of all TAF sites prior to 00z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.