textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday, with highs largely in the teens, lows near to just below zero, and wind chills frequently below zero

- Scattered flurries late today and tonight

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest

- Best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday into Wednesday next week with a potentially impactful winter system

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 907 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Only minor updates to the forecast this morning. We nudged low temperatures downward over rural areas for tonight, since radiational cooling potential looks to be maximized for a couple hours between 00z-09z. Temperatures likely drop to between 0 and -10 with locally cooler spots as low as -15 degrees, especially across our eastern counties. After about 09z, clouds increase from the north and winds pick up as well. Ambient air temperature begin to warm thereafter but the increase in wind should allow apparent temperatures to remain in the 0 to -15 range.

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Skies have remained mostly clear longer than anticipated early this morning as a thicker mid level deck associated with a fast moving upper wave gradually sags south while stratus across the lower Great lakes into the northern part of the state continues to struggle in its push into northern portions of the forecast area. With near calm winds...this has led to a wide variation in temperatures with 07Z readings ranging from near -10 over localized spots in the northwest part of the forecast area to the lower teens across far southern counties.

A deep...amplified upper trough elongated east to west remains anchored over the eastern half of the country. An upper low will close off on the western end of the trough over the Great lakes today then pivot into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys by early Saturday. This will serve to only further amplify the upper trough into the weekend while enabling another surge of bitterly cold polar air to spread across the area tonight into Saturday as a near 1050mb high moves into the northern Plains.

CAMs continue to be overly aggressive with fog development early this morning and this is largely due to not properly initializing the dewpoints which are several degrees colder than guidance. There remains potential for localized patchy freezing fog over the next few hours focused especially to the northeast of the Indy metro but confidence remains low in more widespread development at this point. Slick surfaces will be possible where fog does form.

While there will be sun to start...the overall trend will be for cloud cover to increase into this afternoon as moisture becomes trapped beneath a boundary layer inversion. Lapse rates steepen by late day and while the moisture layer is shallow...flurries are possible...most notably across the northern half of the area... lingering into tonight as the upper low swings through the region. A lake effect snow band will organize by this evening across northeast Illinois but as low level flow backs from northeast to a more northerly direction overnight...the band will reorient due south off Lake Michigan and may be able to make it as far as Carroll/Howard/ Tippecanoe Cos in a much weaker state prior to daybreak Saturday. Not anticipating any accumulations but flakes will linger all night.

Temps/Wind Chills...highs will rise into the mid and upper teens this afternoon before dropping back to near zero or just below zero tonight. The combination of lingering low clouds and slightly stronger winds prompted nudging low temps up slightly from the model blend which also bumped up minimum wind chills. There remains a distinct possibility that a few locations will see wind chills briefly bottom out in the -15 to -10 range but think much of the area will hold between -10 and 0 degrees. Will hold off on introducing a Cold Weather Advisory for tonight for that reason and continue to highlight the bitter cold via a Special Weather Statement.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 257 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Broadly speaking, guidance is in decent agreement through the long term period in the pattern remaining fairly amplified, with a few opportunities for precipitation, including potential for another accumulating snowfall mid week as a system develops and takes a fairly classic Panhandle hook track.

While larger scale guidance is in relatively good agreement, there is more significant disagreement on the potential for additional Arctic intrusions into the region, and forecast temperatures may be optimistic in spots as a result - particularly late next week if another blanket of snow falls and another strong Arctic high drops into the central US.

Aside from the mid week system, potential will exist for some lake effect flurries or snow showers Saturday morning across portions of the area, along with a slight chance of snow late Sunday night into Monday morning as a weak, fast-moving upper wave slides across the area, and then late in the week as a clipper system drops through the Great Lakes.

Generally, while some modest improvement may be in the offing on temperatures, the overall expectation is for continued cold, a few opportunities for wintry precipitation (particularly mid week), and little expectation of significant change over the coming week.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1238 PM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings tonight into Saturday - Scattered snow showers overnight, especially after 07z.

Discussion:

An mid/upper-level trough is dropping southward out of the Great Lakes today and will bring scattered snow showers tonight into Saturday. Some lake enhancement is possible, which could lead to a few heavier snow showers with brief visibility reductions. A Prob30 group was introduced to LAF and IND where the best chance of lake- enhanced snow showers currently exists.

Aside from snow shower potential, stratus will move south in tandem with the upper-level disturbance. MVFR ceilings are expected to develop during the night into the day Saturday. Some clearing is possible Saturday expect immediately downwind of Lake Michigan.

Winds remain light and variable today mainly out of the north (varying from northeasterly to northwesterly at times). Speeds increase on Saturday and become northerly behind a cold front expected around 15z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.