textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers/t-storms today and especially Monday, with greater coverage in afternoon...isolated flooding possible

- Humid and very warm this week...daily rain chances continue through Friday...readings near 90F on Thursday

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Generally humid conditions to continue early this week as H500 subtropical ridge builds north from Great Lakes today to much of eastern North America by late Monday. Associated quasi-blocked pattern including short wave slowly progressing from central Plains this morning to Midwest by late Monday...will focus broad ribbon of deep Gulf moisture from Deep South north into Indiana and vicinity, with precipitable water values exceeding 2.00 inches over much of the region Monday. Overall weakly-forced environment will promote mainly diuranlly-driven convective showers and at least a few thunderstorms, that will be favored near remnant subtle west-east boundaries that flowed out of yesterday's storms.

Pre-dawn small downpours, setting up along stale boundary from AM Saturday storms... will continue to drift east towards Anderson/ Muncie areas by daybreak. Otherwise, expecting overall less active weather today as building ridge's axis crosses local region, although embedded small weakness drifting from SW to NE through midday/ afternoon hours will likely kick up a few showers and perhaps a few weaker storms. Rainfall could become enhanced near/north of the I-74 corridor this afternoon when this feature crosses boundary from Saturday evening cells. Tolerance for further flooding will be weakest northwest of the Indy Metro where six counties received 2-6 inches of precipitation through PM Saturday.

More active conditions/convective potential Monday as short wave slides into region while lifting northward. Unfortunately greatest chances for numerous showers and also potentially training rain will be over western zones, including northwest counties that will continue to be susceptible to further flash flooding chances through the mid-week. Arrival of forcing aloft Monday will at least provide a decent breeze amid the muggy air, albeit reinforcing dewpoints into the low 70s for most areas with gusts 15-20 mph. Temperatures to range from lows around upper 60s to 70F to highs in the 80s...with the far southern tier nearing 90F today but few places exceeding 85F Monday from thicker cloud decks and numerous showers.

Previous discussion follows for mid to late week timeframe:

Tuesday through Friday Night...

Chances for rain will persist through much of the week ahead. An upper trough will push across Indiana on Tuesday, and some weak forcing dynamics will pass on Wednesday. Thereafter, upper ridging is expected to be found east of Indiana, allowing southwest flow aloft as a stronger trough approaches for Friday and Friday night. Meanwhile through all this time, forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and favorable CAPE each afternoon. The lower level flow will predominately be warm and humid gulf flow as surface high pressure will be stagnant east of the Carolinas. Thus best chances for rain will be on Tuesday and again on Friday and Friday night when the best forcing chances area expected to pass. Otherwise, daily diurnal showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Given our expected warm and humid gulf flow, warm and humid conditions will be expected with highs in the upper 0s by late in the work week.

Saturday...

For the moment, dry and mild weather looks in store for Saturday. The moderate passing wave and cold front on Friday Night will allow surface high pressure over the northern plains build across Indiana, allowing a cooler and less humid air mass to arrive across the area.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 705 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Impacts:

- Low SHRA chances this afternoon.

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of low chances for SHRA during the afternoon and early evening hours today. Mid and high level clouds will stick around through much of the day with near calm winds this morning, followed by easterly to southeasterly winds up to 5-10 mph during the rest of the period. Rain chances will be highest towards Lafayette and Indianapolis and lower for Bloomington and Terre Haute.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.