textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold today and tonight, with light snow accumulations possible through early Monday, mainly east of a Kokomo- Indianapolis-Greensburg line.

- Windy today with gusts to 30 mph possible.

- Cold weather on Monday.

- Next round of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 244 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure in place over eastern Ontario, while a strong area of high pressure was found over the high plains, nosing into the Ohio Valley. This was resulting in a cold northwest surface flow across Central Indiana, and temperatures were in the 20s. Water vapor shows an upper level low pressure system over northern Indiana. This broad system was providing cyclonic flow across the Great Lakes including Indiana. Regional radar showed no echos with the upper low to the north.

Today...

The deep upper low is expected to quickly sweep across Indiana this morning, reaching Ohio by this afternoon. An associated upper trough axis will accompany this low, providing some forcing mainly during the morning hours. HRRR fails to generate much in the way of snow showers today as this forcing passes. Cold and dry air will continue to spill into central Indiana within the lower levels due to the strong high over the high plains. Thus moisture remains a problem for this system. This dry air within the lower levels will help to prevent widespread snow today as forecast soundings show a thin layer of dry air and wide dew point depressions across the southwest two thirds of the forecast area. Across the eastern parts. where the best surge of forcing is from the pivoting upper low, models show a few snow showers developing along with forecast soundings with much smaller dew point depressions, more favorable for precipitation. Still pwats in the area remain near 0.3, which is quite low. Thus will try to keep pops limited to northeastern parts of the forecast area as this upper trough quickly passes.

Also of note, a windy day will be expected. As the upper low pushes east, a strong surface cyclone is expected to rapidly deepen near the middle Atlantic states. This will allow for a strong surface pressure gradient across the area by this afternoon as wind gusts around 30 mph will be possible. Given the cold air advection in place today, look for steady temperatures in the middle to upper 20s under cloudy skies.

Tonight...

Cold, northerly flow will be set up across Indiana, with a favorable fetch for Lake Effect Snow streaming from Lake Michigan to northeastern parts of our forecast area, including OKK, AID and MIE. Models are hinting at LE Bands drifting south within this flow overnight. As usual, most moisture will be depleted from the bands as they reach our area however, light snows will remain possible. Elsewhere, cold air advection clouds will remain across central Indiana as forecast soundings show lower level saturation trapped beneath a mid level inversion. Expect lows in the upper teens and lower 20s.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 244 AM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday Through Wednesday.

The long-term period opens with the tail end of a lake-enhanced snow event on Monday. While the primary moisture axis will have shifted east, lingering northwesterly flow and a secondary vort max diving through the Great Lakes will maintain low-level saturation. This setup is conducive for light snow or flurries, particularly across the northeast counties, though dry air filtering in by Monday afternoon will bring an end to any measurable accumulation. Highs on Monday will remain sharply below normal, struggling to reach above the upper 20s under persistent cloud cover.

A pattern shift commences Tuesday as surface high pressure slides to the east, allowing for a robust return of southwesterly flow. WAA will become the dominant driver of the local weather with 850mb temperatures climbing significantly. Expect a notable jump in surface temperatures with highs reaching into the low to mid 40s. By Wednesday, the amplification of a western CONUS trough and an unseasonably strong ridge over the Atlantic will further accelerate this warming trend. Deterministic guidance suggests Wednesday highs will soar into the upper 40s to low 50s and potentially as high as the mid 50s in southwestern zones. Skies will transition from sunny to increasingly cloudy as moisture return begins ahead of the next system.

Thursday Through Saturday.

Confidence remains high in an active weather regime for the latter half of the week, though ensemble spread exists regarding the exact timing of the primary shortwave. On Thursday, a deepening surface low is projected to track through the Great Lakes, dragging a cold front through central Indiana with precipitation chances beginning as early as Wednesday night. While initial warming may start the event as rain, progged wet-bulb temperatures and strong CAA behind the front may bring a transition to snow across the northern counties with some uncertainty as to how far south the transition zone will be.

The alternate scenario, supported by a segment of the GEFS members, keeps the surface low further north, which would prolong the warm sector and potentially introduce enough instability for embedded thunder rather than a quick changeover to snow. However, the consensus favors a return to seasonable and drier conditions by Friday as a ridge of high pressure builds in, allowing for clear skies and a highs in the upper 40s to low 50s. Looking toward Saturday, another fast-moving disturbance in the zonal flow will bring additional cloud cover and a slight chance of rain showers. Temperatures on Saturday are progged to surge again with highs in the mid 50s as the region remains on the warm side of a developing low pressure system to our west.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1144 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR conditions expected through much of the period.

- Light snow possible after 11Z...mainly at LAF And IND.

- Gusty northwest winds to around 30 knts after 12Z Sun.

Discussion:

An upper level low pressure area over NW Indiana will cross our state through 18Z today. This system will bring MVFR to IFR cigs across the TAF sites through the period. These clouds can be seen on GOES19, upstream over northern Illinois and WI, poised to push into Indiana. HRRR suggests limited snow shower production as this system passes this morning. Forecast soundings show best saturation mainly within the eastern half of the system, and this would mainly impact LAF and IND. Thus have included VCSH mentions at those locations while BMG and HUF just remain with some MVFR cigs.

A strong pressure gradient will begin to develop over Indiana as the upper low passes east. This will result in cold, gusty, northwest winds. Wind gusts to 30 knts will be expected after 12z. Gusts will remain after 230000Z, but should diminish to around 20-25 knts.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.