textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Near or below freezing temperatures early this morning.

- Warmer temperatures arrive for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph expected on Tuesday.

- A wet pattern emerges for Tuesday Night through Friday, with strong to severe storms possible on Tuesday afternoon and night.

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)

Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure remains in control across the region. The surface high is currently centered near NW Iowa and will move overhead later today. Winds have become light and variable due to a weakening MSLP gradient from the approaching high. This along with clear skies should allow for temperatures to fall below across much of the forecast area. Mostly sunny skies during the day will help warm temperatures into the upper 40s to low 50s by the afternoon.

High pressure will begin to shift eastward late today through early next week allowing for S/SW flow to return. Look for temperatures to warm up as a result. Near seasonal lows in the mid 30s tonight are expected to warm into the upper 50s to mid 60s by Sunday afternoon. A tightening MSLP gradient between the departing high and a developing low pressure system near the Plains should also support strengthening S/SW flow and warmer temperatures. Highs around the low to mid 70s are likely by Monday.

Deep mixing Sunday afternoon may drop minimum RH values to around 20- 30% and promote gusts up to 25 mph. Recent rainfall should limit fire weather potential though. Slightly stronger wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected during the day Monday.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Friday)

Issued at 202 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

A mainly zonal pattern is expected for much of the second half of the work week with passing upper short waves and lingering lower fronts providing chances for precipitation.

After a dry start to the week on Sunday and Monday, dry and warm weather will continue on Tuesday morning as Indiana will spend much of the day within the warm sector ahead of a cold front. A moderate pressure gradient is expected to provide excellent mixing on southwest winds, once again resulting in above normal temperature soaring to near 80 across much of Central Indiana. On Tuesday afternoon and night, a cold front will approach along with an upper short wave. The warm and humid airmass should provide a good set-up for another round of strong to severe thunderstorms on Tuesday night into Wednesday. Forecast soundings are already hinting at steep lapse rates and plenty of CAPE available. Thus, high precipitation chances will be used on Tuesday night into Wednesday.

A brief intrusion of cooler and dry air will be expected on Wednesday as the frontal boundary continues to linger across the area. Temperatures will return closer to normals for Wednesday. However, models, continuing the active pattern show another strong short wave approaching and passing across the area on Wednesday Night into Thursday. Given this expected upper support and the lingering lower level boundary, confidence is growing for another round of showers and storms.

Quick moving moderate ridging looks to arrive for Friday, perhaps bringing a brief reprieve from the rain showers, however yet another upper system in the active pattern looks to arrive and pass on Friday Night into Saturday, continuing the overall wet trend.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 610 AM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure remains centered over the region. North/Northeasterly winds are expected briefly before becoming light and variable after 13- 15Z. Look for winds to become southerly after 18-20Z today and increase slightly into the overnight, but still remain under 10 kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.