textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Decreasing cloudiness this evening, becoming cloud overnight.

- Cloudy and mild on Saturday with a brief period of rain showers during the late morning or early afternoon.

- Rain showers to snow showers Saturday night, minor accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch possible through early Sun AM

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1029 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Made some adjustments to the temperatures as current observations have been slightly lower than forecasted. Otherwise forecast is in good shape as surface high pressure extends into central Indiana. Still expecting temps to hold to near 40 to upper 30s through the night. Low level clouds appear to be shifting north, but upper level overcast clouds will persist.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a cold front pushing east over Central OH and Central KY. This was associated with a strong low pressure area moving rapidly NE across Ontario. The low was providing moderate cyclonic flow across Indiana. This was resulting in wind gusts near 30 mph. A ridge of high pressure was building into Indiana from the plains states. Aloft, water vapor showed southwest flow in place over Indiana and another upper low was found emerging over the TX and OK panhandles. Another upper trough was found over the northern plains. Subsidence was shown in the wake of the front.

Tonight...

Models show SW flow in place aloft over Indiana tonight. This is associated with a deepening trough over south central Canada, pushing into the Great Lakes. All the best forcing with this feature will remain well to the northwest of Indiana tonight, but it will come into play on Saturday. Meanwhile within the lower levels surface high pressure will be moving across Indiana. Forecast soundings appear to have begun to pick up on possible evening clearing as subsidence builds across the region. Given upstream trends, will try to trend toward a decreasing cloudiness sky this evening, but increase cloud cover tonight as lower level moisture will return as warm air advection begins again on southerly winds aloft along with the approach of Saturday's system. Overnight lows should fall to the middle and upper 30s, with some brief clearing in place early in the evening.

Saturday...

Models show the upper low diving SE across WI and toward Indiana on Saturday. Strong cyclonic flow is suggested to develop aloft. A wave of forcing is pulled into the low and across Indiana during the day. With this wave models agree a thin band of showers will push across Indiana during the middle of the day. As this wave passes, forecast soundings show good lower and mid level saturation with pwats near 0.67. Thus confidence is high for a brief period of rain showers during the late morning and early afternoon due to these features. Gusty 20-30 mph winds will return as a stronger pressure gradient arrives across the area. Highs should reach the middle and upper 40s.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 222 PM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Saturday night through Sunday...

Look for colder air to filter into the region over the second half of the weekend behind a departing low pressure system. The parent trough remaining overhead along with low-level cyclonic flow and marginal moisture supports the potential for scattered light snow showers or flurries Saturday night through early Sunday morning. Only very light snow accumulations between a trace and a few tenths of an inch are expected. However, steepening low-mid level lapse rates within the cold air advection regime favors increasing 0-3km CAPE and the potential for locally heavier snow showers. This may lead to slightly higher snow amounts in localized areas, but CAMs still show considerable disagreement regarding snow shower coverage with the HRRR being the most aggressive.

Model trends will continue to be monitored closely. Be cautious of any slick spots on roadways late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, especially if any heavier snow showers develop like some CAMs suggest. Flurries or an isolated light snow shower may linger over northeast central Indiana Sunday morning. Surface high pressure will then build in through the day providing quiet weather along with decreasing clouds.

Sunday night through Friday...

Model guidance depicts surface high pressure remaining in control for much of this period providing quiet weather conditions. A few shortwave troughs aloft are expected to pass through the area, but very limited moisture return should inhibit precipitation. Low rain chances return late Tuesday afternoon ahead of an approaching frontal boundary and deeper trough. An additional wave embedded within deep broad troughing aloft combined with sufficient moisture will increase precipitation chances into Wednesday. Falling temperatures due to cold air advection should allow for light snow to mix in.

Surface high pressure building in Thursday supports dry weather though guidance depicts another system quickly approaching late week leading to additional low chances for precipitation. Thermal profiles suggest snow would be the predominant precipitation type as colder air settles over the region. Exact details remain uncertain due to diverging model solutions, but relatively weak forcing and marginal moisture return should keep any QPF amounts light.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1244 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR/IFR ceilings return this morning - Rain showers this morning to afternoon - WNW gusts to 20-30kt late afternoon to evening, again overnight - Snow showers possible after 04z

Discussion:

MVFR stratus has lifted northward, now only being reported at LAF. It may take most of the night for stratus to build back in further south, which looks most likely between 13z-16z. A period of IFR conditions are possible as rain arrives from the southwest. Given the fast-moving nature of the parent system, rainfall looks to persist for only a few hours. Some clearing is likely later Saturday afternoon, and a period of VFR conditions is possible.

Winds pick up out of the west-northwest as the system and its cold front arrive. Gusts up to 25kt are possible, with some gusts to 30kt not out of the question. Winds may diminish a bit around 00z before a secondary cold front arrives by 04z. High-resolution guidance is hinting at snow showers along and behind the front, which will be scattered in nature. As such, we're including a VCSH group for now. Winds increase out of the WNW again behind the secondary cold front, with renewed gusts 20-30kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.