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KEY MESSAGES

- A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY from 1AM Friday through 10AM EST Saturday

- Near zero or Subzero lows possible early this morning and tonight along with wind chills at or below -10F

- Winter Storm Warning for central Indiana Saturday Through Sunday

- Total snowfall amounts as high as 10 inches with high confidence in 6+ for the I-70 corridor and points to the south

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1000 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

The current forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. A much colder airmass has settled across the region behind an arctic front which pushed through last night. Latest observations depict very cold temperatures ranging from near zero over the northwest to mid teens across the far southeast. These cold temperatures, particularly over the northwest, combined with breezy conditions is resulting in potentially dangerous wind chills between 10 to 20 degrees below zero. Areas further south are still seeing very cold wind chills though they are slightly warmer than locations to the northwest.

A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect generally near the I-70 corridor north today due to the very cold wind chills. The Cold Weather Advisory then expands to all of central Indiana at 7pm this evening and continues through midday Saturday. Dry weather conditions are expected today with surface high pressure building in.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Deep troughing continues through the short term and a cold weather advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. Early this morning, a cold front extending off of a polar low N/NE of the Great Lakes brings a surge of very cold arctic air and some of the coldest air of the season begins. Lows this morning will drop to the mid teens in the south and near 0 degrees in the north. Highs tomorrow will range from near 5 degrees up to 20 degrees followed by lows from -3 to +5. During the short term (through 7am Saturday), wind chills will be below zero for most of the time. This morning could see wind chills as low as -20 and expecting down to -15 tomorrow night. If you must be outside, limit time outside, wear layers, and check on those more vulnerable to the cold.

Along the front this morning, wind gusts of around 25 mph will be possible at times with sustained winds of 10-15 mph likely through at least the afternoon. Surface high pressure will begin expanding into the area late today, allowing winds to weaken to 5 to 10 mph.

No precipitation is expected in the short term and the forecast area should see some sunshine most of Friday before cloud coverage increases tonight ahead of the approaching winter system.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 251 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Friday Through Sunday.

The primary focus of the long term period remains a potent and highly impactful winter storm system slated to traverse the region this weekend. Confidence continues to increase in a widespread snowfall event with significant impacts to much if not all of central Indiana. While the exact track of the surface low remains subject to minor shifts, the overall synoptic setup continues to become more clear.

The storm will evolve in two distinct phases. The first phase begins Saturday as a strong Arctic high, propped up to our north with a central pressure exceeding 1050mb, maintains a steady northeasterly wind. This will advect very cool and dry air into the area, characterized by dew points in the single digits. This dry air entrainment will help to initially suppress snowfall rates and keep overall impacts on the lower end through the evening, as it will take time for the column to saturate from the top down and keep snowfall rates on the lower end.

The second and more impactful phase late Saturday night into Sunday morning as a secondary low travels through the Tennessee Valley. This setup will tap into a deep, moisture-rich plume of Gulf air, overrunning the entrenched Arctic airmass. We expect widespread snow with increasing rates during this time. Latest guidance, including the 18Z and 00Z model suites, shows strong lift within a deep DGZ, which is highly favorable for efficient snow production. Heavy f-gen banding is also a significant concern, which could lead to a narrow corridor of higher totals. Thus we expect the greatest impacts to be within this secondary aspect of the system.

Regarding snow totals, while raw model Kuchera method snow totals continue to suggest the potential for 12+ inches, the same model snow depth is much lower due to the expected compaction that will occur over this longer fused event and gives more reasonable snow totals. Current thinking places a widespread 5 to 9 inch accumulation across the I-70 corridor and points to the south, with the highest totals likely across south-central Indiana where the best overlap of moisture and forcing resides. There may be some areas that see 10+ towards southern Indiana but we think those higher totals should remain south of the forecast area. To the north, 4-6 inches seems reasonable, potentially as far north as the Lafayette to Kokomo area. Within any banding across southern Indiana, a few rumbles of thunder will also be possible with models suggesting there may be just a hint of instability.

Overall confidence in a significant event is high, though alternate scenarios still exist. A further southward shift in the storm track could lead to a sharper cutoff in snow totals for our northern counties. Conversely, the recent northerly trend in model guidance suggests that if the low tracks further north, the axis of heaviest snow could shift closer to the I-70 corridor.

Beyond the snow, dangerously cold weather will be a major story. Highs on Saturday and Sunday will struggle to reach the mid-teens, and with steady northerly winds, wind chills will plummet to between -10 and -20. This brutal cold persists into next week with overnight lows potentially dropping below zero, especially where a deep snowpack is established.

Monday Through Thursday.

The brutal Arctic airmass remains firmly entrenched Monday through Wednesday, with temperatures averaging 10 to 20 degrees below normal. Monday will be particularly harsh with a highs in the single digits and lows potentially sub-zero. While a very slight "recovery" is possible on Tuesday as highs reach near 20 persistent northwesterly flow will keep the region susceptible to reinforcing shots of Arctic air through the end of the week. Daytime highs on Wednesday and Thursday are currently forecast to struggle to reach the teens, with overnight lows remaining in the low single digits. If a significant snowpack remains from the weekend storm, these temperatures could trend even lower due to increased albedo and radiational cooling.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 635 AM EST Fri Jan 23 2026

Impacts:

- Gusts near 20 kt through midday

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A cold front has moved through much of central Indiana. Gusts to around 20 kt are expected to continue through midday before dropping off some. Wind direction will start off from the NW, shift more northerly by this evening and northeasterly by tomorrow morning. Cloud coverage will start to increase at the end of the period, ahead of an approaching winter system.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Saturday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051-052.

Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for INZ021-028>031-035>042.

Winter Storm Warning from noon Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for INZ043>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST Saturday for INZ053>057-060>065-067>072.