textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible

- Warming trend possible for the first week of August

DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 252 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Low pressure over eastern Canada, which was the cause of yesterday's storms, continues to move away from the Great Lakes region. Surface high pressure is now building in from the northwest, with a cooler and drier air mass filtering into Indiana. Dew points have slowly been falling through the day.

Aloft, troughing is located over the northeast with broad ridging over the Plains and intermountain west. Though northwesterly flow persists aloft, surface high pressure should keep things quiet this week. Near normal temperatures are expected through Friday. From Friday onward, ensemble guidance shows a shortwave trough diving southeastward within the jet stream. Overall, the jet stream is rather weak and most guidance shows this system becoming cut off from the main flow.

Guidance can struggle in situations with a cut off low embedded within a weak steering flow. Despite this, most guidance shows this system to some extent over the weekend. Timing and location vary, but the signal is there. As such, we will carry chance to likely PoPs. A lot of details still need to be ironed out, however, given residual variability within ensemble guidance.

Beyond this weekend, ensemble guidance continues to diverge and shows no strong signal for ridging or troughing. The mean 500mb flow resides well to our north, however, so with the weekend upper low dissipating a trend towards warmer temperatures is favored for the first week of August.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 137 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings diminishing this afternoon

- Wind gusts up to 20kt through this evening

- Low probability patchy fog tonight

Discussion:

Surface high pressure is building in from the north and stratus is beginning to dissipate. Ceilings have been between 2500 and 3000 feet agl and may oscillate between SCT and BKN this afternoon. VFR conditions return for all terminals by 00z.

Patchy fog is possible overnight but drier air flowing in from the north and a residual breeze may limit coverage. Will not carry fog in the TAFs as a prevailing group due to low coverage and low confidence of development.

Winds retain a northerly component through the forecast period. Speeds diminish overnight, potentially becoming light and variable, before increasing again after 12z Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.