textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant again today amid increasing winds...gusts to 20-30 mph this afternoon

- Chances of showers/t-storms north late today/tonight...more widespread showers possible late Saturday-Saturday night

- Very warm and humid starting Sunday, periods of showers/t-storms

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 335 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Transition from recent pleasant early-summer conditions to prolonged more-humid, and at times unsettled mid-summer pattern...to occur today and Saturday. Increasing, quasi-stacked southwesterly flow today to boost precipitable water aloft and surface dewpoints...although better forcing sliding by to the northwest of the region should only allow a few showers/stray rumble of thunder along the Upper Wabash Valley through early evening.

Several opportunities for showers and generally non-severe t-storms will follow tonight through Saturday night as small ripples of forcing slide west to east amid an overall zonal pattern...with cross product of these ingredients most likely north of I-70. Cannot rule out a couple marginally strong/severe gusts late tonight north/ west of Crawfordsville...although best chances for any organized or stronger convection will be Saturday night, especially along an axis north of the I-74 corridor, when marginally strong/severe gusts and perhaps isolated large hail are on the table.

Upper pattern to then rearrange into another H500 subtropical ridge, this time with the quasi-stationary axis aligned from the Great Lakes into eastern Canada...which will favor deep Gulf moisture into Indiana through much of the remaining period. High humidity can be expected, will dewpoints trending from upper 60s by Sunday morning, into at least the low 70s by Tuesday. Scattered to at times numerous showers and at least a few embedded t-storms can be expected through at least Wednesday. One low-confidence variable will be short wave/ vort max spinning northeastward through the western Midwest early next week which could enhance convection and present a greater potential for strong/severe cells...and possibly less-active conditions in its wake.

Potential for isolated flash flooding will trend upward through the early week for any areas receiving multiple rounds of heavier rains. Temperatures to range from lows near 70F to highs in the 80s under often considerable cloudiness. Potential for first-90s by the late week should the upper ridge build over the central US and allow ample sunshine back into Indiana. Indianapolis' highest reading so far this year was 88F on March 22.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 712 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Impacts:

- SSW winds increasing this morning, gusts peaking at 20-27KT 17Z-23Z - Brief MVFR in scattered convection possible near KLAF this evening - Brief MVFR/worse in convection possible at all terminals after 06Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail across central Indiana through 18Z today, with brief MVFR/worse possible in convective -SH/TSRA near/west of KLAF after 18Z...and at all terminals after 06Z Saturday.

Stacked ridge centered over southern Appalachians this morning will slide to Carolina coast tonight...allowing weaker and marginally- forced cold front to advance east into Upper Midwest. Transition to more humid summer-like pattern today will start with gradient ahead of boundary promoting increasing SSW flow this morning, sustained at 10KT by 14Z at most TAF sites...with gusts possible at KLAF from the start of the period, reaching 20KT by 14Z. SSW winds will peak during 17Z-23Z, sustained up to 13-18KT with gusts up to 20-27KT.

Resultant Gulf moisture fetch to yield greater diurnal cumulus this afternoon under steadily increasing mid/high clouds. Marginal potential for scattered convection to reach KLAF by late day/early evening...but main convective impacts should hold off until after midnight tonight late tonight into Saturday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.