textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry Today and Saturday with seasonable temperatures.

- Hotter and more humid air arrives Sunday and persists into mid-week next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 941 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Weak lift in the extreme southwest forecast area has been producing isolated showers. This area of lift is slowly drifting south per radar and satellite observations, and the rain should be south of the forecast area shortly. Updated PoPs earlier and kept isolated mention through 14Z for now. Will continue to monitor.

Scattered mid clouds elsewhere are dissipating, but a narrow band of stratus across northeast Indiana/western Ohio is drifting west southwest. Upped sky cover in the northeast forecast area for a bit, but this should mix out in a few hours.

Otherwise, adjusted hourly temperature forecasts based on latest obs, but no changes were made to high temperatures at this time.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 231 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the Great Lakes spilling SW across IL to MO. This was providing light, NE surface flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows a few clouds over the southern parts of the forecast area, but most areas were observing clear skies. Dew points across the area were in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies while a deep low over Hudson Bay placed troughing through the Great Lakes and Ohio valley. Water Vapor shows strong subsidence in place over Indiana and the region.

Today and Tonight...

Models today continue to show NW flow in place across Indiana, with little in the way of forcing passing. Strong mid level drying and subsidence is shown to be dominate today and tonight. Forecast soundings show a dry column today, with a mid level inversion. This should result in a few late afternoon CU with limited vertical growth. Ultimately, partly cloudy skies. Highs will once again reach the lower 80s, near persistence, and dew points near 60 will seem somewhat comfortable.

Diurnal CU will dissipate this evening, leading to clear skies and lows in the lower 60s.

Saturday and Sunday...

Dry weather with a warming trend is expected through the weekend. The ridging over the western CONUS is expected to flatten somewhat and shift east to the Great Lakes through the weekend. This will begin the set-up for the arriving heat for next week. The flow will steer any forcing well north to Ontario and the Great Lakes. Forecast soundings suggest mid level subsidence remaining in place on Saturday, however some mid and high level moisture is suggested to arrive on Sunday. Very dry lower levels at that time will just result in an increase in cloud cover on Sunday as compared to Saturday. Within the lower levels, the strong high pressure system will shift to the northeastern states on Saturday, before moving off the east coast on Sunday. This will allow the beginning of return flow, warm and humid southerly winds by Sunday and a gradual increase in temperatures amid warm air advection. Looks for highs in the mid 80s on Saturday and the upper 80s by Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...

The forecast for next week continues to be consistent. Consistently hot.

Models have continued with the idea of strong upper level high pressure in place across the south, steering all forcing dynamics well north of Indiana, and keeping Indiana protected from any upper waves. The result beneath this upper ridge will be a very strong Bermuda high pressure systems, allowing hot and humid SW gulf flow into the Ohio valley and Central Indiana all week. This results in a thermal ridge of high pressure in place stretching from KS across IA to the southern Great Lakes. That area will be the main focus for any showers and storms that may occur. Forecast soundings over Indiana continue to suggest a very hot and dry column through the week, with convective temperatures in excess of 100. Thus confidence for any afternoon diurnal storms is low. Look for humid weather, above normal temperatures, mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 609 AM EDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

Little change from the previous forecast. Some mid level cloud over Central Indiana has prevented fog formation at most of the TAF sites. Any patchy fog will quickly burn off after sunrise.

High pressure will continue to build into the area today. Forecast soundings suggest some CU will be possible during the afternoon. Clouds will be lost toward sunset as VFR conditions continue.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.