textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend

- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee above normal temperatures

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 924 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Latest observations this morning depict patchy fog has quickly mix out under sunny skies. Expect quiet weather for the remainder of today as surface high pressure remains dominant across the region. Look for highs to in the low 70s with light and variable winds. Min RH values around 30 to 40 percent are expected by this afternoon.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Fair and remarkably quiescent autumn weather to continue over central Indiana into early next week. Main parties responsible for this pattern's consistency will be recent broad surface ridge that will continue to occupy much of the eastern half of the continent, around its center near southeastern Ontario...and a corresponding H500 ridge that is progged to build north over central North America by Friday before likely shrinking back to the Midwest/OH Valley by Monday. A distant yet also noteworthy feature will be early winter storm tracking into Hudson Bay this weekend...although lower confidence in how potent or quickly any subsequent polar air mass would reach Indiana.

Mainly clear skies and light winds will continue to prevail, with seasonably low dewpoints and abundant sunshine promoting diurnal ranges nearing 30 degrees for most locations. While modest, overall northwest flow aloft ahead of the building H500 ridge will advect a few small weaknesses across the Midwest with occasional batches of cirrus. However, most impactful weather for the remaining workweek will be patchy overnight/early morning fog which should most notably feature quick changes in visibility near rivers, creeks and valleys. Often calm/variable surface winds should exhibit light organized northerly flow for a few afternoon hours today. More typical light breezes to around 10 mph are progged for afternoons Thursday to Saturday as flow veers from NE to SE from ridge center sliding to our east.

Trailing cold front out of the Canadian system to stall near a Quad Cities-Detroit line early next week, as remnant and now stacked ridge maintains dry and mild weather over the CWA. Best chances for any rain amid this continued dry pattern will then be at the very end of the period, with actually decent model agreement on the quasi- stationary boundary drifting across the CWA around the Tuesday timeframe. Although, chances for any moderate/heavy rainfall would be very low as a huge upper ridge over AK/west. Canada directs any better forcing north of the Great Lakes.

Temperatures through the period to range from 40s to low 70s most days under H850 temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius. Slightly warmer days possible this weekend as upper ridge axis slides across the region...before greater chances of a return to seasonably chilly conditions for the middle of next week.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1231 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility in FG possible at KBMG Thursday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions through the period at most sites, except KBMG where once again patchy fog is expected tomorrow morning around 12Z. Otherwise, excellent flying conditions will be the rule. Some mid level clouds spilling out of the MS valley will be the only other sensible weather along with light and variable winds.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.