textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather conditions with slightly below or near normal highs through Wednesday

- Generally humid, seasonably warm with occasional rain/storm chances Wednesday night through early next week...rain most likely Thursday-Friday

DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 301 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Today through Wednesday...

Expect mostly quiet weather conditions with surface high pressure remaining in control across the region. Large scale subsidence and daytime heating has helped to clear out the stratus deck from earlier this morning. Lingering scattered cumulus will gradually clear out into the evening. Mostly clear skies, very light winds, and damp grounds from recent rainfall on Saturday could promote additional fog development late tonight. Any fog that develop will mix out in typical diurnal fashion Tuesday morning. Expect temperatures to gradually warm into the middle of week thanks to modest warm air advection. Highs are generally going to be slightly below or near normal.

Wednesday night onward...

Guidance depicts a longwave trough with multiple embedded shortwaves traversing the region Wednesday night through end of the week. These impulses will promote additional convective chances as deeper moisture surges back into central Indiana. The greatest precipitation chances are on Thursday when the strongest forcing overlaps with the deeper moisture surging northward. A frontal boundary associated with a weak disturbance will likely stall near the region by Thursday. Additional shortwaves tracking along the boundary supports daily precipitation chances through at least Saturday.

Some guidance suggest upper ridging builds in late this weekend into early next week providing mostly quiet weather conditions as shortwaves aloft remain north of central Indiana. However, some models differ and continue to suggest shortwaves passing through aloft. These differences leads to lower confidence in the forecast so will keep low chances for precipitation Sunday onward.

Exact details remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions, but moderate destabilization at times and enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing waves could potentially support isolated severe thunderstorms somewhere near the region. Uncertainty will remain high until models become better aligned.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 137 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible at times through 20Z, VFR conditions thereafter

- Fog possible late tonight into Tuesday morning at the outlying TAF sites

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will be possible at times through about 20Z. Low clouds will continue to mix out through the afternoon. Calm and mostly clear conditions later tonight could once again promote fog, mainly at the outlying TAF sites. Winds will remain light. Wind direction could be variable at times, but generally expect winds to veer from northeasterly to east or southeasterly tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.