textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Near daily rain and occasional thunderstorm chances this week into early next, with an additional 1 to 3 inches of rainfall likely from this morning into Saturday

- Widespread minor to moderate flooding expected across central and southern portions of the area, with localized major flooding possible

- A few strong to severe storms possible Friday into early Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth likely Friday and potentially early next week as well

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 907 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows a warm front stretched across northern Indiana, just north of a LAF-OKK line, but just south of Van Wert OH. Temperatures across Central Indiana were in the 50s, while on the north side of the front temperature were mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Radar this morning shows a cluster of rain showers over southern Illinois and southern and Central Indiana pushing NE just south of the front. Water vapor showed a mid level short wave over IA and NW IL pushing east with subsidence over MO and western IL pushing east.

Through late morning, the surge of rain showers will continue to progress northeast across southern and central Indiana. Helping to push this east will be the approach of the upper trough and associated subsidence. Forecast soundings show this as top down subsidence begins to build across the area through the afternoon hours. Still, several more hours of high pops will be needed this morning as the rain showers exit northeast. This afternoon, will trend the pops lower as subsidence arrives. Overall clouds will remain across the area as plenty of lower levels clouds across the region remain. Forecast soundings support this, showing saturation within the lower levels. Highs in the lower 60s will be expected this afternoon.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Another round of light to moderate rainfall with heavier pockets is moving through central Indiana this morning, which will require close monitoring as the ground over central and southern portions of the area is already heavily waterlogged due to a widespread 3-5 plus inches of rain in the past 48 hours. Will maintain the ongoing flood watch through noon as scheduled.

Global and high resolution models are in good agreement that a lull is coming later today once this complex departs the area, though will have to maintain at least chance PoPs with the warm front still in the area. Forecast soundings do depict some weak instability redeveloping this afternoon which may allow renewed development of a few showers and storms this afternoon. Severe threat appears quite minimal through tonight with weak lapse rates.

A lull is expected for much of the area this evening before rain chances increase again from south to north as isentropic lift ramps up again over the area. Weaker overall forcing for ascent suggests significantly lighter amounts, though with climatologically extreme precipitable water values remaining in place, any showers or storms will have the potential to produce pockets of heavy rainfall and a renewed areal or flash flooding threat, in addition to contributing to the developing main stem river flooding problem.

Despite widespread cloud cover today and precip at least early in the day, temperatures should climb well into the 60s across most of the area as the warm front continues to make slow progress northward.

Onset of precip has increased mixing and scavenged fog droplets, allowing visibilities to improve dramatically and allowing substantial trimming of the dense fog advisory. Will be able to allow the remainder to end on schedule in the next couple of hours.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 332 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

As the area moves into the open warm sector on Friday into Friday evening, another lull in precip is likely, as at least some capping will be present, though a few storms cannot completely be ruled out Friday afternoon, which could pose an isolated severe threat given a bit more substantial instability aloft and adequate deep layer shear.

More widespread showers and storms are likely late Friday night into Saturday as the cold front finally makes its way through the region. Again, precipitable water values will be extreme for the time of year, posing a heavy rainfall threat on heavily saturated ground. Though frontal timing appears unlikely to be diurnally favorable for severe, fairly strong deep layer shear and at least weak instability may allow for one or more lines or clusters of weakening storms from upstream to move into the area and pose at least an isolated severe threat during this time frame as well, though hydrologic concerns will be by far the more pressing issue.

In the wake of frontal passage, we look to see at least a 48 hour or so dry period, though this will only marginally improve the soil moisture conditions given what may end up being a widespread 4-8+ inches of rainfall in 4-5 days time by the time dry weather returns Saturday night. Rain chances will return again by late Monday into Tuesday as a closed low moving out of the southwestern CONUS directs large scale moisture transport back into the region by early to mid week.

Widespread minor to moderate flooding across the entirety of the East Fork White basin, and the lower half or so of the Wabash and White basins, is a virtual certainty given what has already occurred and expectations over the forecast period. The lower portions of these basins where they meet in southwest Indiana will likely see flooding lasting at least a few weeks. Per both the latest deterministic river forecasts and hydrologic ensembles, there is a substantial chance of one or more points reaching major flood stage, and those with interests along area rivers are strongly advised to closely monitor the flooding situation in the coming days and weeks.

Temperatures will remain well above normal through nearly the entire long term period, with records in danger on Friday and potentially early next week as well.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1149 AM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly MVFR with some IFR conditions possible this TAF period.

- Isolated showers, low ceilings and fog expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

A warm front just north of Central Indiana will continue to be the focus during this TAF period. A moist air mass will remain across Central Indiana as the front lifts northward through Friday.

This afternoon, isolated showers will be possible due to daytime heating, but widespread precipitation will not be expected as subsidence is arriving aloft from IL and IA. Lingering lower level moisture and heating will lead to continued MVFR cloud development.

Light winds and high moisture will be in play tonight as the HRRR continues to suggest isolated showers overnight. Due to the vicinity of the lingering warm front along with light winds, fog development is expected. However with the front being farther north, widespread dense of is not expected.

VFR is expected to return on Friday as the front lifts farther north and the Taf sites get deeper into the warm sector. Afternoon VFR CU will be possible.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until noon EST today for INZ043>049-051>057-060>065- 067>072.