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KEY MESSAGES

- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect 1 am through 9 am Sunday

- Scattered snow showers to continue through the remainder of this afternoon

- Very cold temperatures will continue through Monday morning

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before early in the work week, and if they do not, chances may be low well into February

- Chances for light snow Sunday night into Monday, Tuesday into Tuesday night, and Thursday night into Friday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Satellite imagery shows a mid/upper-level vort max dropping southward across Indiana. Broad lift combined with some lake- enhancement has lead to numerous light to at times moderate snow showers today. Model and observed soundings show lift and moisture concentrated within the dendritic growth zone, allowing for efficient accumulations despite very limited liquid equivalence. In fact, amounts of up to an inch have already been reported as of 2pm.

Upstream observations show stratus extending far to our north and northeast, all the way into southern Michigan. However, this stratus has been thinning within the broad subsidence behind the departing vort max. Model guidance suggests that continued clearing is possible into tonight, except immediately downwind of Lake Michigan. Scattered flurries are possible as long as there's stratus overhead.

Assuming skies clear overnight, especially across our east which will be displaced from the primary lake stratus band...we'll see another night of ideal radiative cooling potential. Like previous nights, we are going to go below guidance on low temperatures mainly across our eastern two thirds. Lows as low as -10 degrees are possible under mainly clear skies and light winds, especially in rural areas. As such, another Cold Weather Advisory has been issued from 06z to 14z.

Clouds begin increasing again Sunday morning as winds take on a westerly component, allowing the lake stratus band to drift eastward. Additionally, a clipper system approaching from the northwest should cause an increase in mid to high-level cloud cover Sunday afternoon and evening. Temperatures remain below freezing but should rebound into the high teens (northeast) or low 20s (southwest).

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Little change in the long range pattern is expected. Global teleconnections continue to favor west coast ridging and east coast troughing (positive Pacific North American pattern and negative Arctic Oscillation). Ensemble guidance does show the PNA becoming more neutral to possibly negative by the middle of February. GEFS/EPS likewise continue to show a continuation of the current pattern through the first week of February.

Scaling down a bit, there looks to be a few opportunities for snowfall next week. First, as mentioned at the end of the short term section, a clipper is modeled to dive southeastward late Sunday into Monday. There remains some disagreement within guidance, with some CAMs coming in a bit more aggressively than the global models. The more robust models (12Z HRRR), show as much as 1 to 2 inches across portions of central Indiana. Other models show little if anything. Given the trends however, we will introduce PoPs for the Sunday night into Monday timeframe. This is a departure from blended guidance, which does not have much in the way of precipitation chances.

Next, a system shown by the majority of guidance in the Tuesday Wednesday timeframe. Guidance has trended weaker and a bit further south over the past day, though this will still bear monitoring in the coming days as it could pose a threat for additional accumulating snowfall somewhere in the area. Lastly, at least a low chance for light accumulations will come late in the work week with another fairly substantial clipper as well.

Beyond that, generally more of the same is expected. Namely, colder than normal temperatures, northwesterly flow aloft, and occasional weak clipper systems diving southeastward out of Canada.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1231 PM EST Sat Jan 31 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings to persist into Sunday. - Snow showers with minor visibility reductions this afternoon.

Discussion:

An upper-level disturbance is dropping southward across Indiana producing snow showers across much of the area. All terminals have seen snow with minor visibility reductions. A tempo group has been added to account for this. Improvement is anticipated this evening as the system exits southward. However, continued flurries from LAF to HUF is possible due to lake enhancement.

Winds off of Lake Michigan will also allow MVFR ceilings to linger into the night, especially due south of the lake. That places LAF to HUF under MVFR ceilings the longest, which such conditions persisting into the day Sunday. Lake stratus likely drifts eastward a bit on Sunday allowing MVFR ceilings to return to IND and BMG.

Mid/high-level clouds begin increasing again during the day Sunday as a clipper system approaches from the northwest. This system in turn causes winds to become west-southwesterly on Sunday after a period of light and variable conditions.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for INZ021- 029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.