textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend

- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee above normal temperatures

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 305 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Fair and remarkably quiescent autumn weather to continue over central Indiana into early next week. Main parties responsible for this pattern's consistency will be recent broad surface ridge that will continue to occupy much of the eastern half of the continent, around its center near southeastern Ontario...and a corresponding H500 ridge that is progged to build north over central North America by Friday before likely shrinking back to the Midwest/OH Valley by Monday. A distant yet also noteworthy feature will be early winter storm tracking into Hudson Bay this weekend...although lower confidence in how potent or quickly any subsequent polar air mass would reach Indiana.

Mainly clear skies and light winds will continue to prevail, with seasonably low dewpoints and abundant sunshine promoting diurnal ranges nearing 30 degrees for most locations. While modest, overall northwest flow aloft ahead of the building H500 ridge will advect a few small weaknesses across the Midwest with occasional batches of cirrus. However, most impactful weather for the remaining workweek will be patchy overnight/early morning fog which should most notably feature quick changes in visibility near rivers, creeks and valleys. Often calm/variable surface winds should exhibit light organized northerly flow for a few afternoon hours today. More typical light breezes to around 10 mph are progged for afternoons Thursday to Saturday as flow veers from NE to SE from ridge center sliding to our east.

Trailing cold front out of the Canadian system to stall near a Quad Cities-Detroit line early next week, as remnant and now stacked ridge maintains dry and mild weather over the CWA. Best chances for any rain amid this continued dry pattern will then be at the very end of the period, with actually decent model agreement on the quasi- stationary boundary drifting across the CWA around the Tuesday timeframe. Although, chances for any moderate/heavy rainfall would be very low as a huge upper ridge over AK/west. Canada directs any better forcing north of the Great Lakes.

Temperatures through the period to range from 40s to low 70s most days under H850 temperatures around 10 degrees Celsius. Slightly warmer days possible this weekend as upper ridge axis slides across the region...before greater chances of a return to seasonably chilly conditions for the middle of next week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 107 AM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility in FG possible 8Z-13Z today outside of KIND

Discussion:

MVFR visibility in BR/FG possible late tonight through 13Z at all terminals except KIND...with more organized area of advection fog expected northeast of central Indiana terminals.

VFR conditions to otherwise predominate through Wednesday evening near central Indiana terminals courtesy of broad surface high pressure whose axis will continue to rest its southern tail over IN. Amazingly quiescent conditions to continue...with calm or variable winds the rule...surrounding a few hours this afternoon of northerly flow under 5KT.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.