textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Multiple rounds of showers tonight through Friday.

- Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late Thursday afternoon and evening with damaging winds and heavy rain the primary threats.

- Sharply colder conditions arrive Friday, accompanied by northwest wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph.

- Widespread frost is likely late Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Rest of this Afternoon and Tonight....

In the wake of the MCV organized convection now moving through parts of KY/OH, remnant showers will continue through late afternoon before stronger downward vertical motion ends precip chances for all but the far south by this evening. Copious mid-high clouds associated with convection over the southern Plains will keep any threat for fog development out of the question overnight.

The remnant of the next in a chain of MCV's looks to move into the MS valley after 06Z, with some potential increase in light precip over the far western and southern portions of central Indiana towards 12Z. Meanwhile, surface analysis shows a backdoor cold front moving steadily southward through northern Indiana with temps falling at FWA recently. Have cut temps 1-2 cats late this afternoon and overnight along and north of I-70 to account for faster and further southward movement of the front compared to recent guidance.

Thursday...

The back door frontal boundary should be draped near and possibly just south of I-70 by 12Z Thursday where it is expected to stall. Aforementioned next MCV is likely to move into central Indiana during the morning hours. Instability ahead of this feature looks meager. But increasing isentropic lift north-nw of the frontal boundary should support scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms with mucape up to 1000 J/KG. Activity will push across much of central Indiana during the mid-late morning into early afternoon. Scattered surface based TS possible by mid-late afternoon along and south of the slowly advancing warm front. Complications to the forecast include any precip induced cold pool which may reinforce the frontal boundary location. This creates uncertainty regarding timing and location of surface based thunderstorms development and attendant severe weather threat. For now will keep all of central Indiana in the wording for marginal risk of severe weather in line with the most recent SWODY2.

Thursday night and Friday...

The focus for convection should diminish by midnight as the 3rd an final MCV moves east of central Indiana. However, the cold frontal boundary associated with southward moving shortwave through the western Great Lakes will support renewed shower development towards 12Z Friday. In the wake of the frontal boundary, strong CAA will lead to gusty winds up to 30 mph with temps steady to slowing falling during the afternoon. Passage of the shortwave trough axis and increasing CAA aloft will support steeper lapse rates and potential for scattered showers in NE Zones during the afternoon, with the remainder of central Indiana seeing mostly light to moderate drizzle "showers". Temperatures are likely to be 35 degrees colder Friday afternoon than they were Tuesday afternoon and combined with the strong winds, Fall will certainly feel like it has arrived!

Friday Night through Wednesday...

Clouds and a few light showers may linger through Friday evening as the upper wave axis shifts through the region. Skies will clear late Friday night into Saturday morning with winds relaxing as a large 1030-1035mb surface high moves into the Ohio Valley. The high will center over the region Saturday night before shifting to the East Coast Sunday and allowing for return southerly flow to commence Sunday into early next week. Upper ridging will reestablish for the first half of next week with temperatures returning to above normal levels. Deep subsidence supports an extended period of mainly clear skies Saturday into early next week.

Low level thermals support the coolest daytime temperatures in the mid and upper 50s Saturday before recovery back into the low and mid 70s for the first half of next week. While a lack of boundary layer decoupling and lingering cloud coverage will likely limit frost accrual to sheltered locales Friday night...confidence remains high in a widespread frost for much of the area on Saturday night as lows fall into the 30s. Subfreezing temperatures possible for some of our normal cool spots as well Saturday night. Frost/Freeze headlines are expected to be needed Saturday night. Lows will return to the upper 40s and early 50s by midweek.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1237 PM EDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered convection this afternoon - Winds shifting to N/NE by early evening - Ceilings will fall late tonight into Thursday to MVFR with pockets of IFR

Discussion:

An area of showers with embedded thunderstorms continues to move east across the southern half of Indiana early this afternoon as a frontal boundary pushes through the area. Additional scattered convection will likely develop along the front in the immediate wake of the area of rain and storms but expect all rain will be east of the terminals by 22-23Z. Wind direction will be chaotic through the afternoon...especially at KBMG and KHUF...but as the boundary continues south winds will become prevailing from the N/NE by this evening.

Ceilings will slowly lower overnight to MVFR levels as moisture becomes trapped beneath a boundary layer inversion. IFR ceilings are possible primarily at KBMG by Thursday morning. Winds will begin to veer back around to the E/SE on Thursday as the front lifts back north. Rain may impact KHUF and KLAF towards the end of the forecast period with more substantial convective impacts accompanying a cold front set to move through the area Thursday evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.