textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet conditions, slow moderation amid above normal readings through midday Saturday

- Rain showers likely south of I-74 corridor within late Saturday to Sunday morning...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches possible in this area

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 914 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure continues to build southward within modest AVA. This is leading to calming winds with most areas near or calm already. There will likely be slight increase in winds later today (3-5kt) as sensible heat fluxes increase beneath partly cloudy skies. Increased cloud cover slightly for late this morning through the afternoon due to mid level cloud cover increases within quasi-zonal flow.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

High pressure will continue to provide quiet weather across central Indiana through tonight.

Some weakening upper energy will produce isentropic lift in the mid levels and bring mid level clouds to the area today. Will go with mostly cloudy skies for the bulk of the day. The lower levels of the atmosphere will remain dry, and the lift aloft isn't strong, so do not expect any precipitation.

Temperatures have recently been running above blended guidance. However, today will have the plentiful mid level cloudiness, which should keep readings in check. Will stay close to guidance for highs today. However, if clouds are fewer than expected, then highs may have to be raised again.

As the upper wave exits tonight, cloud cover will decrease some. Winds will remain light thanks to the surface high. These conditions will allow temperatures to be cooler in areas where clouds decrease. Will go near or a little below guidance for lows.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Long term across central Indiana to feature an overall slow and steady moderation from slightly above normal readings Friday to anomalously mild temperatures by next Wednesday...amid mainly dry conditions that will include a good chance of perhaps widespread rain showers Saturday night into Sunday.

The workweek will end with the mid-level weakness embedded in quiet northwest flow quickly departing to the southern Appalachians... replaced by increasing southerly breezes under clearing skies, which will allow the seasonably chilly morning to rebound about 25 degrees to upper 40s/low 50s for most locations. Saturday to be equally pleasant with lighter winds under thickening clouds guiding above normal readings into the 50s for most spots...with a few showers possibly arriving late for far southwestern counties.

Southern stream cut-off system to then bring scattered to widespread rain showers to most of the region, probably during an 18-hour window within the Saturday night-Sunday timeframe. High confidence in rain only precip-type, no thunder, and overall greater rainfall south...moderate confidence in 0.50-0.75 inches of precipitation for most far-southern zones and at least 0.10 inches precipitation for other southern/central areas...and low confidence in exact rainfall amounts for any zone, as well as potential flooding from run-off and/or ice jams. Hopefully, antecedent snow pack down to 1 to 3 inches or less and temperatures ranging from roughly 25F to 50F today through Saturday...will allow the remaining snow pack and even a small/top portion of stagnant ground frost to melt...which should help partially mitigate run-off from potential 0.25-0.75 inches of rain. Although isolated minor flooding is still on the table, especially given ice jam potential amid the moderating pattern.

Second half of the long term period will bring the zonal northern portion of a strengthening H500 ridge across the Midwest, raising the 1000-500 mb thickness above 550 dm by Tuesday. Next weather system will track from near Wyoming into the southern Great Lakes through the middle of next week...bringing increasing southerly winds ahead of it, at times considerable cloudiness, dewpoints nearing 50 degrees, and temperatures completing their slow and steady moderation Wednesday - most likely into the low 60s. Record high minimum temperatures through the third week of February vary widely...yet the easiest to reach is next Wednesday's (46F, 1981), with latest forecast to tie this value. Organized rainfall is unlikely with the mid-week system, but widely scattered rain showers are possible, especially over northern portions of the Midwest.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1224 PM EST Thu Feb 12 2026

Impacts: None

Discussion:

Surface high pressure building south from the northern Great Lakes will slowly drift east during the TAF period keeping quiet, and calm conditions and therefor VFR. There is a 700-500mb jet streak creating broken ceilings between 10-20kft.

Winds will be light and variable today before becoming more consistently out of the E/SE tonight around 3-5kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.