textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning in effect across northeast central Indiana from 5AM Through 8PM Friday; Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere

- Showers and storms return Sunday, low end chance for severe weather

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday Night

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Today through Friday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through much of tonight as surface high pressure remains near the region. A strong low pressure is then expected to move into the Great Lakes Region late tonight into Friday. This will lead to increasingly windy conditions from a strengthening MSLP gradient. There is a low chance for a few showers across north-central Indiana tonight as the system passes, but a significant dry layer in the low levels will greatly limit the potential for measurable precipitation. Most high resolution guidance has a good handle on this dry layer showing dry conditions persisting. Diurnal mixing into a strong LLJ during the day Friday is expected to promote even stronger wind gusts.

Northeast portions of central Indiana will likely see the strongest wind gusts. A High Wind Warning is now in effect from 5am to 8pm Friday with the potential for gusts between 55-60 mph. However, the strongest gusts may only occur within a more brief window between increasing diurnal mixing Friday morning and before the strong LLJ shifts east later in the day. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the remainder of central Indiana with gusts between 45 to 55 mph possibly. The higher end 50 to 55 mph gusts are mainly expected across areas further north and east in the advisory.

The low pressure system and associated LLJ shifting further east should allow for winds to begin diminishing from west to east around the mid-late afternoon hours. Increasing S/SW flow will promote warming temperatures tonight into Friday. Expect lows ranging from the upper 30s to low 40s tonight with highs in the 50s Friday.

Friday night through Saturday night...

Look for winds to quickly subside Friday evening as the aforementioned system finally departs and PBL decoupling cuts off diurnal mixing. Quiet weather conditions are then expected through Saturday as surface high pressure builds in. Subtle cold air advection should cool temperatures slightly. Lows Friday night should generally bottom out in the low to mid 30s. Expect highs on Saturday to warm into the upper 40s across the north to as high as the upper 50s or near 60F in far southern counties. Low rain chances return very late Saturday night ahead of an approaching system, but antecedent dry air will likely limit any chance for measurable precipitation once again.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 255 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Sunday through Thursday...

Active weather is expected on Sunday and Sunday Night. Models suggest a stronger upper trough over the plains providing warmer southwest flow across Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile within the lower levels strong low pressure over Illinois will move across northern Indiana on Sunday Night before arriving in Michigan on Monday. This will place Indiana within the warm sector again on Sunday and Sunday Night. Best saturation with this frontal passages looks to occur on Sunday night as steep lapse rates but limited CAPE and high lower lvl helicity is in place. Thus best chances for precip will be on Sunday night. Afternoon chances cannot be ruled out due to daytime heating providing additional lift. Given the expected shear and warm, moist air mass, and the wind field aloft, severe weather will be a possibility.

Monday through Wednesday...

Much colder weather is expected on Monday and Tuesday as cold, northwest surface flow will be left in the wake of the departing low along with the arrival of large area of high pressure. On Monday morning, wrap around moisture and cold temperatures could lead to some snow. At that time, forecast soundings show saturation within the mid and lower levels at values well below freezing. Any wrap around precipitation should end by Monday night as the column becomes much drier due to subsidence. Strong cold air advection is seen to arrive on Monday with 850mb temps falling to near -14c. This will give central Indiana another strong taste of winter as lows fall below freezing on Monday through Wednesday. The coldest morning looks to be Tuesday, when lows fall to the teens. High temperatures will not be much of an improvement within the cold air mass as highs reach only the lower 30s. Warm air advection is expected to return on Wednesday, as the core of the cold air finally begins to drift east and exit.

On Wednesday Night into Thursday...

Stronger ridging is will begin to build over the Rockies aloft, continuing to allow subsidence and northwest flow over the upper midwest and plains states, spilling across the Ohio Valley. This will trend the weather toward dry weather with milder, more seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 758 PM EDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty to windy late tonight through Friday...gusts up to 30-45KT within 07Z-23Z

- Period of non-convective LLWS possible between 07-15Z prior to stronger gusts

Discussion:

VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period, although gusty to high winds will be the rule from late tonight through late day Friday. Potent surface low pressure entering Minnesota this evening will cross the Great Lakes Friday...meanwhile swinging its quasi- circular gradient field through Indiana. Increasing flow tonight will back slightly to southerly by 02Z...and veer back to SSW by 09Z. Steadily increasing flow will gust to 32KT at KHUF/KLAF by 08Z...and gust to 35-40KT at all TAF sites by 12Z.

Windy Friday as southwest flow steadily veers to westerly by 17Z. Flow will be strongest across the northern Midwest...sustained at KIND/KLAF to 23-27KT with gusts as high as 43-45KT during 13Z-21Z. At KHUF/KBMG, winds will be sustained as high as 18-22KT, gusting up to 39KT through 21Z. A period of non-convective LLWS is possible between 07Z-15Z Friday before gusts quickly increase. For Friday evening at KIND, winds will continue veering from WNW to NW while diminishing to under 10KT.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ021-030- 031-038>042-048-049-057.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ028-029- 035>037-043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.