textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Some sunshine Sunday with mild temperatures

- Rain expected Monday night into Tuesday, with lingering chances into early Wednesday

- Much colder air for Thanksgiving into next weekend

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 229 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Quiet weather will continue for the remainder of the afternoon, with some increase in mid and high clouds for parts of the area.

Tonight, mainly mid and high clouds will be around as a surface cold front moves into the area. Forcing is weak and moisture limited, so do not expect any precipitation with the front.

Near and behind the front overnight into Sunday morning, some guidance is showing stratus and even low visibility in fog developing. The atmosphere looks to be too turbulent for fog development, but cannot rule out some patchy stratus if enough low level moisture becomes available. Will keep skies partly cloudy.

Low temperatures in the middle and upper 30s look reasonable given expected conditions.

Any stratus will mix out Sunday morning leaving behind mostly sunny conditions for the afternoon. With the sunshine, temperatures will peak in the 50s.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 229 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sunday night into much of Monday will be quiet across central Indiana with upper ridging influencing the area. Temperatures will be seasonable.

An initial upper trough and surface low pressure system will impact the area late Monday into Tuesday. This will be accompanied by a decent upper jet which could put the area in the right entrance region. Forcing and moisture look good enough to go high PoPs Monday night into Tuesday morning.

A much stronger low pressure system will impact the northern USA and will drag a more potent cold front through on Tuesday night. Best forcing from this system will be well north of the area, and the previous system will have taken much of the moisture with it. Will keep some lower PoPs for rain around through Tuesday night. Temperatures will be mild ahead of the stronger front on Tuesday, with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s expected.

Some uncertainty remains on the timing and strength of the stronger system Tuesday into Tuesday night, which could shift timing of the PoPs and when cooler air will move into the area.

Much colder air will move in for Wednesday into the holiday weekend. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 40s, but highs on Thanksgiving and Friday will be mainly in the 30s. Lows Friday morning may dip into the teens north.

For the moment believe any lake enhanced precipitation will remain north of the area as colder air flows in, and high pressure should keep Thanksgiving and Friday dry.

A warm front may move into the area later Saturday and bring a chance of light precipitation. Temperatures will rebound some into the 40s.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1200 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Impacts:

- Low probability of stratus late tonight into Sunday morning

Discussion:

Lower clouds should stay away from the sites this afternoon. Otherwise look for some mainly mid and high clouds to move in late this afternoon into the evening ahead of a front.

Behind the front, guidance is hinting at stratus and even fog developing as cooler air moves in. The atmosphere looks to be too turbulent for fog, but cannot rule out some stratus developing. Will not include ceilings at this time but will monitor.

Variable winds will become southwest ahead of the front, veering to northwest after it passes tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.