textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy at times today returning near normal readings...ample sun and/or lighter winds, and milder through remainder of the week

- Saturday night-Sunday...any rain showers most likely south of I- 70...with low certainty on timing/rainfall amounts

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week amid milder conditions

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 853 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Lingering low level stratus continues across NE Indiana on the west side of a departing low pressure system. Low level pressure gains throughout the day should work to mix this stratus layer out, but some moisture enhancement from the lake could allow this to continue over far NE portions of the area until around noon.

For temperatures this afternoon, the forecast trends slightly above guidance given mostly sunny conditions and a depleting snow pack. There may still be enough of a snowpack along the lower portions of the White/E.F. White for slight dampening of afternoon diurnal warming, but most of central Indiana should reach the low to mid 40s early this afternoon.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Central Indiana will experience quiet weather through tonight as surface high pressure builds into the area. The main questions will be sky cover and effect of that on temperatures.

Lower clouds were across northern Ohio and portions of northern Indiana early this morning. These are moving southeast, with some dissipation on the western edge. At least some of these will move through the northeastern forecast area in the predawn hours, with perhaps some lingering in the early daylight morning hours in the far east/southeast.

Some additional lower clouds will develop across northeast Indiana in the cold advection during the morning, and these may sneak into the far northeast forecast area at times into early afternoon. Otherwise, some passing high clouds will move through at times today.

Will go with generally mostly sunny skies west and partly cloudy skies east. As mentioned above, parts of the far northeast may be mostly cloudy for brief periods.

Even with decent sunshine, cold advection will keep temperatures in check. Blended guidance looks reasonable for highs, with readings in the middle 30s northeast to the middle 40s southwest.

Tonight, high and mid clouds will increase ahead of an approaching wave. This will work against radiational cooling, but lows in the lower to middle 20s still look likely as the thicker clouds arrive overnight. The coolest readings will be east where the clouds will arrive last.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 326 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Fair weather to oversee gradual moderation to throughout most of the long term...as current zonal pattern slowly lifts towards Canadian border north of H500 ridge building over most of CONUS by early next workweek. Amplified, yet less-intense surface high pressure aligned over the Upper Midwest Thursday morning...will slowly drag is center east across the Midwest by early Friday. This ridge to only weaken as it settles near the Appalachians by the end of the week...limiting strength of warm advective return flow. Nevertheless seasonable conditions Thursday should trend to low 50s for most central Indiana locations by Saturday, especially if thickening clouds can hold off until late day.

Weekend to host a cut-off system tracking from West Texas to Gulf coast, with confidence in rainfall amounts only trending downward across most of the CWA. Model disagreement on position of northern extent of precipitation shield, from mid-level ridging attempting to advance into Indiana before better precipitable water has the opportunity to advect past the Ohio Valley...will limit precip chances to Saturday night into Sunday. Potential still exists for up to 1.00 inch towards the Ohio Valley, with low certainty for moderate rainfall even reaching Bloomington-Columbus. High confidence in lack of any northern energy/forcing supplying rain- only precip type, with readings likely about 10 degrees above normal Saturday-Sunday.

The long term will end with broad upper ridging building from the Rockies to the Appalachians. Corresponding broad, yet rather weak surface high aligned from Lower Mississippi Valley to New England will provide an increasing southerly breeze into the Hoosier State. Despite expected increasing cloudiness, H850 temperatures approaching 10 degrees Celsius will promote widespread early-April conditions...with readings forecast to be overall more than 30 degrees higher than the average of the 2-weeks that followed the late January winter storm. Broad ridge to discourage organized precipitation through most of Week 2. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 41/24.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 559 AM EST Wed Feb 11 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

The western edge of an area of lower clouds has dissipated, and the bulk of new development should remain east of the TAF sites today.

Otherwise some high clouds will pass through at times during the day. Winds will remain northwest, up to near 15kt at times this afternoon. Overnight tonight, high and some mid clouds will increase.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.