textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread minor/moderate flooding south of I-70...with major flooding on East Fork White River at Seymour into weekend

- Near-daily rain and occasional t-storm chances through Saturday, with likely an additional 1.0 to 1.5 inches of rainfall

- A few strong to severe storms possible Friday into early Saturday

- Well above normal temperatures into next week, with record warmth likely Friday...and potentially next Monday-Tuesday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday Night)

Issued at 300 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a warm front stretched across northern Indiana, near a line stretching from Rensselaer to Van Wert. Temperatures across Central Indiana were pushing into 60s, while on the north side of the front temperature were mainly in the lower to middle 40s. Radar this afternoon shows a shift southeast of the rains that have been impacting central Indiana. However plenty of cloud was still found across our area. Water vapor showed a mid level short wave over IL pushing east with subsidence building across Indiana, with a tropical plume of moisture that had shifted south, streaming across KY and TN.

Tonight through Friday Night...

Models suggest strong troughing will develop over the western CONUS, allowing the development of southwest flow aloft over the southern plains streaming into Indiana and the Ohio Valley. This will begin a warm and southwest flow of air into our area tonight, persisting into Saturday. Within the lower levels the warm front to the north will be expected to push farther north toward Michigan. This will place Indiana deeper within the warm sector through Friday night. Chances for rain will continue tonight as models disagree a bit on available forcing aloft. At the moment, we will be unable to use a dry forecast, but pops will be much smaller than the previous nights and any precipitation will be much less and less widespread. HRRR does suggest some spotty showers overnight. Some Fog will be expected, but not the widespread dense variety as the warm front has moved much farther north. Overnight lows and Friday's highs will remain above seasonal normals with highs in the 70s expected on Friday.

Friday will allow for more sunshine and much warmer temperatures as we remain in the warm sector. Forecast sounding suggest dry lower and mid levels, but with steep lapse rates and some CAPE present, afternoon convective showers cannot be ruled out and small pops may be used.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

Another rain event is expected at this time. Models show the western CONUS trough sagging southeast through Saturday. This will begin to influence the forcing across Central Indiana on Saturday through Saturday Night as upper support streams across our state. Meanwhile within the lower levels. Much of Saturday looks to be spent within the warm sector, with the cold front pushing across Illinois. Storm chances will be needed as forecast soundings show attainable convective temperatures along shallow CAPE. More showers and storms will be possible again on Saturday night as the associated cold front passes. Ahead of the front, forecast soundings suggest pwats over 1 inch, allowing the possibility of heavy rain. A training pattern is not expected, as these should move rather quickly across central Indiana, but given all the rain of recent days, additional rainfall could lead to more flooding. Again, high confidence for more rain is expected on Saturday morning and Saturday evening as this forcing arrives amid the warm and humid airmass. High pops will be used. Highs on Saturday should be a bit cooler than Friday, given the expected rain.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Thursday)

Issued at 327 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Overall zonal H500 flow courtesy of retracted heights over northern North America...will allow broad yet surface ridging across the central to eastern US through the early week. Light southwesterly breezes will maintain well above normal temperatures...while welcomed rain-free weather will be the rule per Gulf moisture suppressed south of the Ohio River through Monday night. Near record warmth, into the low 70s, is on the table both Monday and Tuesday, with unseasonably mild conditions continuing amid increasing, mainly southwesterly breezes into Wednesday.

More potent northern surface ridge will plunge into the Upper Midwest before retreating to Quebec through the final days of the long term period...this will translate to a cool front reaching the Midwest around the Monday night timeframe...before stalling and likely returning as a warm front by the mid-week. Increasing warm/moist advective flow will produce at least isolated showers by the Monday night-Tuesday timeframe...with more organized showers likely into the mid-week that should allow mainly moderate rainfall amounts. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term period is 49/31.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 645 PM EST Thu Mar 5 2026

Impacts:

- IFR conditions developing this evening, persisting through tonight.

- Isolated showers, low ceilings and fog expected tonight into Friday morning.

- South winds 10-15 knots gusting to 25 knots expected Friday.

Discussion:

A warm front just north of Central Indiana will continue to be the focus during this TAF period. A moist air mass will remain across Central Indiana as the front lifts northward through Friday.

Isolated showers have been present through the afternoon associated warm front. These showers should persist on and off into tonight. Showers have been numerous throughout the area but they are limited in duration, lasting only a few minutes in any one location. As such, we will go with VCSH through the night at all terminals.

Additionally, fog is beginning to develop across central Indiana. Guidance suggests that fog may become dense at times from HUF to IND northward. We included TEMPO groups for fog from 1/4 to 1/2 mile visibility. These will likely need updates through the night as fog develops. Otherwise, expect IFR ceilings through the night.

A quick return to VFR conditions is anticipated tomorrow afternoon as strong southerly flow arrives behind the warm front. Winds out of the south between 10-15 kt with gusts to 20-25 kt are possible.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.