textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is possible northeast into mid-morning, with any snow accumulations an inch or less

- Mostly dry through midweek with mix of rain and snow chances returning late Thursday through the weekend, uncertainty remains - Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder temperatures expected

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 249 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

A clipper system will bring some light snow to portions of the northeast forecast area this morning. Isentropic lift will contribute, but a narrow band of frontogenetical forcing will be the strongest forcing.

Radar has been showing a band of echoes early this morning, but surface observations have only shown snow reaching the ground across far northern Indiana within the strongest part of the band. This is due in part to a very dry layer between 800 and 900mb, which is sublimating the snow before reaching the ground.

Eventually, believe the band of snow will saturate the dry layer enough for at least some patchy light snow across the far northeast forecast area. Will go with mainly chance PoPs there, with dry PoPs elsewhere. May include a narrow band of likely PoPs in the extreme northeast forecast area depending on trends in guidance and radar.

Most PoPs will be in the 09-14Z time frame. Snowfall accumulations will be less than inch, but if the main band sets up in the forecast area, around an inch would be possible in a narrow band.

Otherwise, isentropic lift will continue at times through tonight with warm advection aloft persisting. Some additional weak upper energy will move through as well. These will produce partly to mostly cloudy skies through the remainder of today and tonight. Moisture/forcing won't be enough to generate any additional snow.

Highs today will reach the lower 20s northeast to the lower 30s southwest. Lows tonight will range from 10-15 far northeast to the lower 20s southwest. May have to adjust that low temperature forecast later as more/less clouds could lead to warmer/cooler numbers.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 249 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Monday through Wednesday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected at the start of the extended as upper ridging builds into the region. Temperatures are expected to warm up quickly due to increasing warm air advection. The southwest half of central Indiana could warm into the 40s by Monday. Meanwhile, highs on Tuesday will range from the 40s across the northeast to the 50s further southwest. Models have come into better agreement regarding the Tuesday into Wednesday forecast.

A dry cold front is expected to move through Tuesday leading to a slight cooldown towards midweek. Look for highs to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s Wednesday. Initially it appeared there were chances for rain with the boundary, but models have trended much drier. While some moisture likely still advects northward ahead of the aforementioned front, mid-upper level forcing from the parent trough should remain well north of central Indiana. The southern stream wave aiding in moisture transport should also remain well south with only weak forcing in place across the area. POPs have been lowered significantly for this reason and the forecast now appears mostly dry.

Isolated showers cannot be completely ruled out though due to weak low-level convergence along the front so low 20% POPs remain late Tuesday. Surface high pressure then builds in Wednesday providing dry conditions. Highs on Tuesday could end up cooler if the frontal boundary moves in sooner during the day. Some guidance has trended towards a quicker solution with forecasted temperatures now about 3- 5 degrees cooler.

Thursday through the weekend...

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the latter half of the week as there is still a large spread in model solutions. Guidance suggest multiple shortwaves could move through the region, but large variability leads to low confidence in exact details at this time. Given the large spread, will stick with blended which keeps low POPs from late Thursday through the weekend. It is worth mentioning long term guidance is hinting at the potential for a stronger low pressure system to develop over the weekend, but confidence in exact details is very low this far out. Decreasing heights aloft should allow for temperatures to return to near seasonal mid-late week.

The quick warm up early in the week along with low rain chances at times will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but most guidance keeps QPF relatively light at this time. The potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1213 AM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance of snow showers near IND in the first quarter or so of the period

Discussion:

A system will bring a band of snow to central Indiana overnight into early Sunday morning. A dry near surface layer is sublimating much of the initial snow before reaching the ground. Latest guidance continues to show that the best chances for snow will be north and east of the TAF sites.

Given this, will not mention any snow at the sites. Would not rule some flurries at KIND, but these would have no visibility impacts.

Thanks to the dry air in the lower levels, ceilings at the TAF sites will remain VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.