textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather expected over the next 7 days

- Progressively warmer through the upcoming week with highs into the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 229 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

An upper trough over New England will lift out to the northeast into the early part of the week with broad ridging aloft and at the surface expanding into the Ohio Valley. This will result in an extended period of quiet dry weather throughout the upcoming week with temperatures rising back to above normal levels. The next threat for rain will not come until next weekend as a cold front moves into the region.

Through Tonight

A renewed surge of broken stratus has expanded across much of the forecast area to the east of Interstate 65 early this morning. Skies were clear to the west of I-65. 07Z temperatures ranged from the mid 20s in parts of the Wabash Valley to the upper 30s in locations under the stratus.

The deep upper trough continues to pull away to the east this morning but cyclonic flow aloft persists on the back side across the Great Lakes. This continues to aid in generating stratus drifting S/SE across lower Michigan and the warmer waters of Lake Michigan. Even as drier air attempts to advect in from the west today...broken stratus is likely to linger across the northeast half of the forecast area through midday before slowly diminishing in coverage and shifting east later this afternoon into the evening. Cellular stratocu may develop on the western flank of the stratus deck as well but the overall trend will be for decreasing cloud coverage as the afternoon progresses with high pressure building in.

The expansion of the center of the high into the region tonight will aid in further erosion of any lingering low clouds...but could also support some expansion of stratus back to the west into northeast portions of the forecast area in the predawn hours Monday as light easterly flow develops.

Temps...highs today will range from the mid 40s northeast where greater cloud cover is expected to the lower 50s in the lower Wabash Valley. Low level thermals suggest slightly warmer temperatures Sunday. Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s both tonight and Sunday night.

Temps...low level thermals support highs this afternoon generally 2- 4 degrees warmer than Saturday in the lower and mid 50s. Lows tonight will again fall into a range from the mid 20s to lower 30s.

Monday through Saturday

The strong surface high pressure will settle across the region for the first part of the week...gradually shifting into the central Appalachians and parking itself through Friday and perhaps into next weekend. With broad ridging aloft establishing over the eastern part of the country as well...a tranquil weather pattern will persist all week across the Ohio Valley with storm systems deflected overtop of the ridge. Lingering boundary layer moisture may aid in diurnal cu development across the northeast half of the forecast area Monday otherwise progressively deeper subsidence will develop with mostly clear skies. Any potential for rain will hold off until next weekend at the earliest at this point as a cold front approaches and attempts to buckle the eastern ridging. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with highs rising into the 60s for the second half of next week.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 600 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2026

Impacts:

- Brief periods of MVFR ceilings at KIND possible this morning - Patchy fog late tonight at KHUF and KLAF

Discussion:

Axis of stratus clouds extending southeast from Lake Michigan and along I-65 through central Indiana. Ceilings have generally hovered between 3000 and 3500ft and will continue to do so through the morning...but brief dips to MVFR remain a possibility at KIND. Stratus will mix out from the west this afternoon with skies clearing. Enough lingering low level moisture may keep scattered MVFR ceilings near KIND tonight into early Monday otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Patchy fog is likely to impact KHUF and KLAF predawn Monday as well.

Northerly winds will veer to northeast by this evening then become light and variable tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.