textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated Rain showers tonight.

- Turning much colder on Wednesday with isolated to scattered snow showers or flurries. Minimal accumulations.

- More light accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday.

- Well-below normal temperatures later this week into early next week with subzero wind chills at times.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure in place over northern Ontario. High pressure was in place across the deep south. This was resulting in a moderate pressure gradient across Indiana which was caught between these two systems. A Cold front over SW Ontario was noted surging south toward Lake Superior, with arctic air in its wake. Aloft, strong ridging was found over the western CONUS. This was allowing ridge riding Pacific moisture to stream across the northern Rockies into the Central Plains and Ohio Valley. Abundant mid cloud was shown on GOES19 streaming across IN, resulting in partly sunny skies. Water vapor imagery shows an upper low over lower MI. This feature was producing some precipitation over MI.

Tonight...Dry weather is expected this evening with precipitation chances arriving overnight. A weak trough within the flow is expected to pass early this evening. This will result in an end to the ongoing warm air advection along with winds becoming more westerly. Meanwhile aloft a strong upper trough over Ontario is expected to dig south toward Indiana, deepening along the way overnight. This will provide some forcing overnight as the upper trough arrives. HRRR suggests the arrival of of some very light and scattered precipitation toward 12Z. Lower levels at that point still look above freezing, so any light precip will start as rain before quickly changing over to snow during the day on Wednesday within the ongoing cold air advection. Low pops will be used as confidence on widespread coverage and amounts is quite low. Expect lows tonight in the upper 30s.

Wednesday...Changeable weather is expected. Cold air advection will be in place through much of the day as the earlier discussed arctic front will push through the Ohio Valley. Highs will be reached early in the day before falling below freezing in the late afternoon. Strong surface high pressure will building east through the day, providing top down subsidence, but lower level moisture will be trapped beneath cold air advection and an inversion aloft as seen within the forecast soundings. A stray flurry of snow shower cannot be ruled out during the course of the day given the lower level moisture. Any precipitation amounts will be very light. Also supporting a flurry or snow shower, the saturated lower levels suggest steep lapse rates, capable of lower level convection.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 237 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

The long term looks cold for central Indiana, with just a brief period of near normal temperatures on Friday afternoon. Wind chills will be near 10 below zero at times for parts of the area late this weekend into early next week.

Lake enhanced snow showers will continue across northeastern portions of central Indiana Wednesday night, so will keep some PoPs there. Will keep PoPs no higher than chance category, with the highest PoPs in the Kokomo area. May have to refine them later when it becomes clearer where any bands will set up. Lows will be in the teens.

High pressure will provide dry conditions during the day Thursday, with highs in the 20s.

The next upper wave that will enhance the upper trough will move in Thursday night into Friday. Warm advection on the front end of the system will bring some snow to the area Thursday night into Friday morning, likely having some impact on the Friday morning rush hour. Around an inch of snow is possible. Precipitation will diminish Friday afternoon and temperatures will top out in the 30s to near 40.

Surging colder air along with another upper wave will bring more snow chances Friday night into Saturday. Some light accumulations may occur, especially given that snow ratios will be on the rise with the colder air. Highs on Saturday will be in the lower to middle 20s most areas.

Upper troughing will remain across the area Sunday into next week, with cold air being reinforced at times. Energy will rotate around the upper trough, but moisture will be lacking. Still, wouldn't be surprised to see some flurries or light snow squeezed out at times.

Low temperatures will be in the single digits for all or parts of the area Saturday night onward, with highs in the teens and 20s.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 633 PM EST Tue Jan 13 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings moving in from the northwest between 08-12Z Wednesday.

- Light rain and snow showers possible Wednesday morning.

- Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts possible Wednesday

Discussion:

A cold front will push across Indiana from the north late tonight into Wednesday morning. Weak forcing with the front may allow for some light rain or snow showers to develop Wednesday morning. Precipitation may begin as rain, but should transition to snow as temperatures fall through the morning.

The best chance for precipitation appears to be near LAF/IND where a PROB30 was included. Confidence is lower at HUF/BMG. MVFR cigs are expected in the wake of the cold front as an upper trough and associated dynamics continue to push across Indiana. Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts are possible Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.