textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible

- Warming trend possible for the first week of August

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The beginning of the forecast period remains similar with high pressure building in from the NW behind the prior week trough. This will aid in subsidence over the region, dropping dew points into the low 60s during the daytime hours and upper 50s at night. A weak shortwave on the SW edge of the high may push a few lingering cirrus overhead and could provide enough low level moisture for a few diurnal cumulus, but otherwise clouds will be mostly clear through Thursday. This all said, there is fairly strong NW flow remaining aloft, and within it, opaque smoke cover from upstream fires may lead to slightly hazy skies at times, for this reason cloud cover will be made at least 20 percent. With 850mb temperatures remaining the same over the next 48 hours, surface temperatures should respond accordingly; although the slightly drier near surface air may allow for afternoon highs to push a bit higher with the current expected highs between 84-86F.

As we approach the weekend, super-geostrophic flow over the Rockies' ridge will help induce pressure falls over the Missouri Valley. Due to the placement of the jet, much of the pressure depletion will be due to very strong diffluence and thus weak steering flow with a majority of the ensemble members showing the mid level low becoming detached from the flow aloft. While ensemble members agree on this overall pattern, the path and the strength of the cutoff low very some due to the lack of strong dynamics. While rain looks generally likely for the weekend, specifics regarding magnitude of QPF and timing are uncertain, and likely will remain that way until ensembles are able to ingest the cutoff low directly.

For next week, there are not any strong signals within the 300mb pattern leading to fairly high uncertainty on precipitation. However, regarding temperatures, the polar jet looks to be well displaced to the north, with should allow for above average 850mb temperatures and therefor some likelihood of above average surface temperatures.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 121 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Impacts:

- Low probability patchy fog tonight

Discussion:

Elevated smoke along with a few cirrus will continue through the night, followed by a few cumulus on Wednesday.

The main question continues to be if any patchy ground fog develops early this morning. Drier air moving in along with some light winds continuing should lower the odds for fog enough to leave mention out of the TAFs. However, can't completely rule it out.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.