textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions and near record warmth are expected today with highs in the mid 70s, wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible today

- Widespread rain arrives late tonight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late this week through early next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 939 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Area of clouds has overspread the western half or so of the forecast area this morning. Upped sky cover to reflect this.

At the moment, believe that these clouds will mix out some by early afternoon, so allowed sky cover to return to partly cloudy. Given this, made no changes to high temperatures yet. If clouds hang in longer than expected, may have to nudge down temperatures later today.

Gusty winds are still expected as mixing deepens, with gusts to near 20kt already noted even under cloud cover.

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

A low pressure system and parent deep trough currently located near the Central Plains will lift northeastward through the day today. The low pressure system is expected to continue deepening as it pushes into the Midwest before eventually occluding on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a strong LLJ continues to shift eastward which will help to advect warm, rich Gulf moisture northward late today into tonight.

Increasing dynamics from the approaching system combined with deeper moisture surging northward supports widespread precipitation by late tonight. The greatest precipitation chances are from late tonight through Wednesday morning as a narrow corridor of strong isentropic ascent moves across an anomalously moist warm sector. The strongest forcing should then begin to shift east of the area Wednesday afternoon leading to lower coverage of showers. Lingering moisture and marginal forcing will likely still support scattered light showers or drizzle at times though. QPF amounts over an inch appear possible across southeast portions of central Indiana, where the strongest forcing and deeper moisture are likely to overlap.

Diurnal mixing into the strong LLJ may promote strong wind gusts up to 35 mph during the day today. Isolated higher gusts cannot be completely ruled out. Near record temperatures in the mid 70s are also possible from the strong southerly flow. The forecasted high temperature for Indianapolis this afternoon is 76F and the record high temperature is 77F. Clouds may limit overall heating slightly which leads to some uncertainty. It is worth noting though that the latest guidance has trended towards less cloud cover during the day thanks to drier air briefly filtering in ahead of the low pressure system. Quiet weather conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday once drier air filters in behind a cold front. Model guidance generally depicts multiple shortwaves moving through the region within northwest flow aloft late this week through early next week. Weak forcing from these features could support low rain chances at times, mainly Friday and Sunday, but limited moisture return due to the Gulf remaining cutoff leads to lower confidence. Cold air advection will lead to cooler more seasonable conditions later this week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s by Friday. Seasonable conditions then persist through early next week, featuring highs generally in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s to low 40s.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 643 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts between 22-32 kt are possible during the day today

- Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z today at the outlying TAF sites

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through this evening. However, Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible through 15Z before winds pick up and begin to gust. This appears most likely near HUF/BMG with a low chance near LAF. This will remain brief enough to not warrant a mention in the TAF for LAF. Expect southerly winds through most of the period. Wind gusts as high as 22-32 kt are possible during the day today. Expect widespread showers by late tonight as a low pressure system moves in.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.