textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably high temperatures in the 70s to near 80 expected today.

- Cooler but still mild on Friday and Saturday.

- Rain chances return Saturday Night into Sunday.

- Mild and wetter pattern likely next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 939 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

No significant changes required this morning to the going forecast as quiet weather continues.

An approaching front will have a very slight potential of sparking a sprinkle or shower as it passes late today into this evening, but with how dry the airmass ahead of it is and minimal moisture advection/pooling along it, the vast majority of the area will remain dry.

The midlevel cloud currently over central Indiana will continue to dissipate and push east of the area, with plentiful sunshine later today, pushing highs well into the 70s and perhaps to 80 in spots west and south.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 305 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the east coast, extending its influence far southwest, into the deep south and through the Ohio Valley. A cold front was stretching from WI across eastern IA to KS. Strong high pressure was found in the wake of the front over the Dakotas and MT. GOES19 shows a thin area of clouds along and ahead of the front over WI and IL. Some limited precipitation was found along the front.

Aloft, mainly a zonal flow was in place and water vapor showed subsidence in place ahead and in the wake of the front. Water vapor showed a thin band of moisture associated with the frontal boundary. Dew points were in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Today...

The zonal flow aloft will remain in place today, quickly pushing the main upper trough over western Ontario east. As this occurs, the associated cold front will become elongated and best forcing dynamics looks to pass well to the north of Indiana. HRRR suggests some isolated late afternoon showers will be possible mainly in the OKK-LAF areas as the front passes, but confidence for this remains rather low. Only small chances may be included and most locations will remain dry. The noticeable things in the weather today will be an occasional wind gust this afternoon ahead of the front and the warm air mass ahead of the front. The southwest winds will allow for good mixing and high temperatures will reach the upper 70s. A few 80s are not our of the question. Expect mainly a mostly sunny day as forecast soundings remain dry. However, clouds will arrive late this afternoon and evening as the front arrives and passes.

Friday and Saturday...

The zonal upper flow wanes on Friday as ridging begins to develop over the Mississippi Valley and builds across Indiana through Saturday. Within the lower levels, strong high pressure in the wake of Today/s front will push across the Great lakes and reach middle Atlantic states on Saturday. This large high will continue to dominate the weather across the eastern half of the country, providing mainly dry weather. Forecast soundings are on board with this, showing a dry column on both Friday and Saturday. Highs on these days will be a bit cooler than Today due to the arrival of the new, cooler, Canadian high pressure system, but still remain well above normals.

Sunday through Wednesday...

A more active weather pattern is expected to take shape late this weekend and into early next week. The upper level pattern is suggested to the become more progressive and southwesterly as a warm and moist subtropical jet stream across the southwestern United States and into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys takes shape. A first wave looks to pass on Saturday night into Sunday. Forecast soundings at that point shows a deeply saturated column with pwats over 1.25 inches.

Models are differing a bit on the timing of an deep upper trough pushing through the NW parts of the country on Monday through Wednesday. Nonetheless, the southwest flow aloft looks to push embedded short waves and forcing dynamics into Indiana on Monday through Wednesday. Again, forecast soundings each of these days suggest deep saturation and high pwats.

Within the lower levels during this time, large high pressure looks to be set up east of the mid Atlantic states on Sunday, still dominating the weather across the eastern half of the country. However, warmer and humid southerly flow will be in across Indiana, essentially starting an overrunning situation as the upper forcing begins to arrive. By Tuesday and Wednesday, strong low pressure associated with the approaching upper trough is shown to develop over the Plains states, continuing to provide lift and forcing. Again, models differ a bit with the progression and orientation of the system, but still plenty of ingredients as listed above remain present to include chances for rain.

No significant intrusions of cold air is expected, thus above normal temperatures with highs in the 60s will continue to be expected.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 553 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly winds becoming NW to N late in the period.

- Otherwise, mainly VFR conditions are expected.

Discussion:

Early this morning GOES19 shows an area of AC with VFR cigs over NW Indiana and eastern IL. These clouds will push across the TAF sites this morning, providing high, VFR cigs.

Southerly winds ahead of an approaching cold front will be in place across Indiana today. Forecast soundings though the day suggest a dry column, with perhaps some low VFR cigs with the cold front passage late in the afternoon and early evening. Winds will shift from the south to the northwest in the wake of the front.

Forecast soundings quickly return to a dry column after 04Z as a new high pressure system arrives with northerly winds.

Overall, only minor adjustments to the ongoing forecast.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.