textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers tonight, mainly across northern Indiana

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph Wednesday with record temperatures likely

- Strong to severe storms increasingly likely on Thursday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Tonight.

The primary forecast challenges in the short term centers on tracking rain chances tonight and gusty winds for Wednesday. As of early this afternoon, widespread cirrus has been streaming across central Indiana with an area of low stratus slowly moving into southern Indiana from the southwest. These clouds have helped to limit the diurnal temperature rise a bit compared to this time yesterday with temperatures likely to top out in the upper 50s to near 60.

The aforementioned stratus should overspread across central Indiana during the early overnight hours as the low levels continue to saturate. An upper level low will track across the Upper Midwest ahead of the more substantial system Thursday with a few elevated showers likely late tonight into early Wednesday. There could be a rumble of thunder or two in a worse case scenario, but with only very weak elevated instability the threat looks minimal.

Wednesday.

Dry air will quickly move in Wednesday morning in the aftermath of the exiting low Wednesday morning with skies clearing towards mid- morning. Strong WAA and clear skies will allow for near record to record highs. The current forecasted high for Wednesday in Indianapolis is 69F which would break the daily record high of 66F back in 2017.

A limited fire weather threat will be present across the far northwestern portions of central Indiana where mixing up to around 5kft will allow for Rhs to fall into the mid to upper 20 percent range with the gusts of 30-35 mph. Recent snowmelt is allowing for moist fuels with the greater threat northwest of the forecast area with SPC highlighting northern Illinois in an area of elevated fire danger.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 134 PM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Wednesday Night Through Thursday.

The main focus for the long term remains squarely on the Thursday and Thursday night timeframe as a more robust negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts toward the Great Lakes. Some forecast uncertainty persists regarding the exact timing of the associated surface low and the subsequent northerly movement of the warm front, but confidence is increasing in a window where strong to severe storms are likely.

From a kinematic standpoint, Thursday's environment is quite favorable for severe weather with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 60-80 knots combined with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 250 m2/s2. The primary limiting factor remains the thermodynamic profile. A weak cap is currently expected to hold until the early afternoon hours before moisture advection aloft erodes the EML combined with the diurnal heating. The hodograph will be most favorable for rotating updrafts in the early afternoon before winds become more southwesterly towards the evening with the resulting hodograph becoming more straight. Thus, expectations are the best potential for tornadoes will be if the cap breaks early during the afternoon hours before the threat shifts into more towards straight line winds toward the evening.

The extent of the severe weather will then be dependent on both storm initiation time and the magnitude of the instability. Moisture quality is high for mid-February with dew points likely near 60. Lapse rates will be fairly meager with the CAPE profile fairly skinny, but with the strength of the kinematics, it doesn't take much instability to allow for severe weather. The main failure modes will be a stronger than expected cap and a weaker than expected CAPE profile, but those look unlikely at this point.

Friday Through Tuesday.

Behind the front late Thursday night, surface flow will become more westerly as the low continues to track to the northeast into the Great Lakes with only a few lingering showers during the day on Friday. High pressure will then settle in for the weekend, quiet conditions but significantly cooler temperatures, with highs struggling to reach beyond the low 40s on Saturday and closer to 35 for Sunday. Another weak system may approach late Sunday into Monday with at least a low-end chance for snow across much of central Indiana. Temperatures look to moderate going later into the week with quiet weather likely.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Feb 17 2026

Impacts:

-MVFR cigs 03Z to 15Z -A few showers possible after 05Z towards LAF, more likely 09Z to 13Z -LLWS 05Z to 15Z -Southerly to southwesterly wind gusts up to 30kts after 05Z

Discussion:

Widespread cirrus is expected to persist through much of the TAF period with rain moving in late tonight. Coverage will be fairly low until 09Z with only minimal chances outside of LAF. Low stratus will arrive after 00Z with MVFR cigs likely for much of the overnight hours. As the LLJ strengthens, LLWS will become a concern even as the surface gusts remain in the 16-22kt range. These gusts will become even stronger after daybreak with a few gusts upwards of 30kts by late morning Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.