textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch continues through early this evening for far southwest central Indiana

- Thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and localized flooding will focus across southern Indiana into this evening

- A few storms could become severe mainly across the southwest half of central Indiana into this evening

- Hot and humid conditions expected for much of next week with multiple days in the 90s and heat indices over 100 degrees

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 253 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through This Evening...

A surface front will meander across the southern half of the forecast area through tonight. An MCV was across southeast Missouri this afternoon, and this will move east across southern Indiana this evening.

Temperatures in the middle 70s to around 80 and dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s (across areas near and south of the front) have helped produce instability across the area.

The combination of the front and the MCV will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, with the most coverage across the southern half of central Indiana, where the best instability and forcing will be. Will have some likely PoPs across this part of the area, with lower PoPs to the north.

With the instability and shear enhanced by the MCV, some severe storms are possible into this evening across the south.

The atmosphere remains quite moist south of the front. Current wind fields support slower storm motions. Convergence associated with the front and MCV will support bands of convection, which could result in training of storms. Thus, heavy rain remains a threat as well.

The far southwest forecast area had over 2 inches of rain in the 24 hours ending this morning, so extended the Flood Watch there until 00Z. Elsewhere across the south, localized flooding remains a threat but less rain had fallen there, so ended the watch.

Overnight through Sunday Night...

Without the support of the MCV, coverage of rain will greatly diminish overnight. Winds will be light, and moisture will linger. This will allow some fog to form once again for parts of the area.

On Sunday into the Sunday night, the surface front will return northeast as an upper ridge builds into the area. This may trigger an isolated shower or storm, so kept some slight chance PoPs for parts of the area during the day Sunday. For now, went dry Sunday night with the ridge building in. If the ridge is slower than expected, showers and storms riding around it Sunday night may clip the area.

Lows tonight will be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With the ridge building in and more afternoon sunshine expected on Sunday, highs will be in the middle and upper 80s.

Monday and beyond...

An upper high/ridge will be the main influence across central Indiana during next week. For Monday through Wednesday, the high will be enough to keep the threat for rain below mentionable thresholds.

As early as Thursday, uncertainties in the location of the high/ridge are enough that isolated/scattered convection can't be ruled out. Confidence is low though in any rain Thursday into Friday as the ridging might still be strong enough to suppress convection. However, by next weekend it appears the ridge will be far enough way to allow convection to pop up from daily instability or from impulses riding around the ridge.

The main concern during this period will be the heat. Temperatures will peak in the lower to perhaps middle 90s, and dewpoints will be in the 70s. These will produce heat indices over 100 and perhaps even over 105 (especially in the very moist areas in the southwest). Blended guidance looks too high with dewpoints though, so will lower some.

Strict Heat Advisory criteria may not be met, but a long period of near Advisory criteria will likely require a multi-day Advisory at some point nonetheless. Will continue to message it will be hot regardless of headlines.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 116 PM EDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Impacts:

- Brief VFR possible this evening, otherwise MVFR through 06Z

- IFR and worse conditions developing after 06Z in stratus and fog

- Scattered convection this afternoon into the evening

Discussion:

Ceilings will continue to lift this afternoon and could become VFR for a period this evening. Otherwise, during the night ceilings will fall once again in the moist atmosphere, with IFR and worse conditions developing again mainly after 06Z Sunday. Fog will develop again as well. Slow improvement will occur Sunday morning.

Scattered convection will develop this afternoon and will persist into the evening. Isolated convection cannot be ruled out on Sunday, but odds are too low to mention.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ067>069.