textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered light showers clearing out into the evening.

- Dry weather arrives tonight through the start of the work week.

- Additional rain and storm chances arrive late this week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 938 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Isolated showers continued across portions of the western half of the forecast area this evening, but these are continuing to weaken with loss of heating. A southwest to northeast orientated boundary is evident on radar from near Greencastle to near Tipton. This boundary is moving southeast but isn't have much of an impact.

Adjusted the isolated shower mention to reflect current trends seen on radar, but will end their mention in the next hour or so as the boundary isn't helping keep the showers going.

Partly cloudy skies will continue this evening. While some of the convective clouds dissipate, some stratus should develop during the night in the moist lower atmosphere. Winds throughout the boundary layer should keep most of the moisture as stratus, but some patchy fog will still develop, especially in sheltered areas.

Only made some minor tweaks to low temperatures.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Today through Tonight...

Broad cyclonic still in place from a departing low pressure system along with lingering moisture continues to promote isolated to scattered light showers across portions of central Indiana. Look for these showers to diminish in coverage through this evening as the disturbance shifts southeastward. Thunderstorms are not expected due to very limited instability.

Surface high pressure building in behind the departing system will help clear out clouds this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient relaxing should allow winds to become light. Expect patchy fog to develop late overnight once winds become light as the ground remains saturated from recent rainfall. Any fog that develops will mix out quickly Monday morning.

Monday through Wednesday...

Expect mostly quiet weather conditions given surface high pressure remains in control across the region. Latest guidance now suggest the departing low pressure system today will not retrograde back into central Indiana after becoming cutoff. The forecast is now completely dry for Tuesday and Wednesday for this reason. That said, deeper moisture advecting back near far southeast portions of central Indiana along with weak dynamics from the system and diurnal heating could support a stray shower.

Wednesday night onward...

Multiple embedded shortwaves traversing the region Wednesday night through end of the week will promote additional convective chances. Exact details remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions. The greatest precipitation chances are on Thursday when the strongest forcing overlaps with deeper moisture surging northward. Thunderstorms will be possible at times as guidance depicts sufficient destabilization. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but some guidance depicting moderate destabilization and modest enhancement of mid-upper level flow from passing waves suggest a low threat for severe thunderstorms is not out of the question. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers early in the period

- Potential for MVFR fog and IFR ceilings overnight into early Monday

- Brief MVFR ceilings Monday morning

Discussion:

Isolated showers will linger through 02Z or so, but coverage looks to be low enough to not include in the TAFs.

Clouds will diminish some this evening as heating is lost. However, some low clouds will develop overnight with the lingering low level moisture. There should be enough wind in the lower atmosphere to favor stratus over dense fog. Confidence isn't high enough to include IFR ceilings at this time, but will introduce 5SM BR at all but KIND.

Cumulus will develop Monday morning and will likely produce brief MVFR ceilings during the morning.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.