textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern this week with near daily chances for showers and storms.

- Severe weather is a possibility through Tuesday focused mainly across the northwest half of central Indiana. Additional threats for strong to severe storms Wednesday and Saturday.

- Warm temperatures expected through Saturday with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s. Record temperatures are possible.

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 258 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Rest of This Afternoon into This Evening...

An upper wave, moving in the southwest flow aloft, is generating showers and thunderstorms across Illinois this afternoon. Most if not all of these will remain west of central Indiana. However, still cant rule out a few showers or storms popping up in the unstable atmosphere. Storms across the far northern forecast area could be strong to severe.

Overnight tonight through Tuesday night...

Thunderstorms generated near the surface front to the north of the area will move southeast overnight into Tuesday morning. Some of these may survive into central Indiana, especially the northeast half of the area.

Additional scattered convection may develop Tuesday afternoon, especially north closer to the front. Tuesday night, similar to tonight, convection that develops well north of the could move southeast into the area.

Some of the convection from Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night could be severe, mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threats.

Lows tonight in the middle to upper 60s will be near record high minimum temperatures. Highs on Tuesday will depend on any rain as well as sky cover. Drier conditions and lower sky cover could lead to near record highs in the middle 80s, but more rain/sky cover could limit highs to near 80.

Wednesday through Saturday...

The front will be closer to but still north of the area on Wednesday. With southwest flow continuing aloft, any upper impulse moving through the flow will have the potential to generate scattered convection in an unstable atmosphere. Convection generated by the front to the north could also impact the northern forecast area. Isolated strong to severe convection is possible given expected parameters.

Temperatures on Wednesday will depend on sky cover and rain coverage, but for now will go with upper 70s north to middle 80s south.

Wednesday night into Thursday, an upper trough will move into the area, providing better forcing. The surface front could move into the area, but there is a decent amount of uncertainty on this. (The NAMs solution of moving the front completely through looks overdone). Will have likely or higher category PoPs all areas at some point Wednesday night into Thursday.

Brief upper ridging looks to move in on Friday, providing a dry and warm day.

A larger upper trough will move in on Saturday and bring a strong cold front through the area. This will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms. Strong storms are possible, depending on the timing of the front.

Sunday and Monday...

High pressure will build in and provide quiet weather. Highs will be below normal, with the coldest readings Saturday in the 50s. Lows in the middle to upper 30s will occur Saturday night, so will have to watch for the potential for frost if temperatures trend cooler.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 755 PM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Impacts:

- Low-VFR ceilings this evening. - MVFR CIGs are possible at times after 05Z, at mainly KIND/KLAF - SSW winds gusting to 20-25KT through most of the TAF period - Scattered convection may impact KLAF this evening... chances of convection at all terminals after 12Z Tuesday at mainly KIND/KLAF.

Discussion:

Scattered convection has developed across central Illinois this evening and will track to the northeast the rest of this evening. This activity could clip the far northern portions of the area including the KLAF site, but the better chances look to remain just north of the area. There could be some occasional MVFR ceilings overnight across portions of central Indiana.

Additional storms have developed across Minnesota into Wisconsin this evening. This activity will develop into a cluster and move southeast tonight into Tuesday morning. It will be weakening as it moves into the area but some convection from this activity will be possible at KIND/KLAF after 12Z Tuesday morning.

South to southwest winds will continue through the TAF period and will be gusty at times. The gusts will increase some in the afternoon hours Tuesday generally 10 to 15kt with gusts of 20 to 25kt.

CLIMATE

Issued at 300 AM EDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Within the setup described in the discussion above, near record temperatures are possible at times this week, mainly Tuesday, and Friday. Whether readings get close depends on sky cover and any rain staying away, which keeps confidence lower at this time.

Current deterministic model runs are cooler than the records, but the potential exists to get within a few degrees if everything lines up. On Tuesday April 14, Indy's record high is 85, set in 1883. On Friday April 17, Indy's record high is 87, set in 1896.

Record high minimum temperatures are also in play at times given the warm and relatively humid air mass. The first opportunity for this comes Monday, when the record high minimum at Indy is 63, set in 2014 and tied in 2018. At the moment, the forecast is for tying that number.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.