textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Ongoing areal flooding through early Sunday west of Crawfordsville..focused over Fountain, southern Warren counties

- A Humid, very warm week is ahead. Chances for rain are in the forecast every day through Friday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 956 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Large convective complex over western portions of central Indiana showing signs of slowly weakening owing to loss of daytime heating. Gradual weakening of the low level flow and expansion of the cold pool should also continue to help weaken mass convergence and sustenance of the complex of convective updrafts.

Relatively strong upper level flow (50-60 kts at 200 mb) has carried anvil material and light precip 60-80 miles downstream of this convective complex with occasional anvil strikes. Although the bulk of any measurable precip is over for the Indy Metro have carried slight chances pops for the next several hours to account for this regime.

Although weakening of convection is expected to continue in NW portions of central Indiana, recent ACARS soundings show little to no CINH remains over central Indiana. Therefore a rogue thunderstorm or two will remain possible well into the overnight along remnant outflow boundary/edges of the broad mesohigh in this portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure in place over Lake Superior and Ontario. High pressure was also found over east of the Carolinas, providing southerly flow to Central Indiana. A frontal boundary was found between these two systems, lying along a IA...northern IL...MI line. Radar this afternoon shows rain that was over Indiana had exited east. Water vapor shows an upper low over TX. Ahead of this low a tropical plume of moisture with embedded disturbances was found pushing into the TN and Mississippi Valleys.

Tonight...

Per the HRRR, and active CU growth across Central Indiana, diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern parts of Central Indiana late this afternoon persisting into the evening hours. Warm and humid air along with ample CAPE across the state will allow for TSRA development.

As heating is lost this evening, showers and storms should diminish as the frontal boundary to the north continues to sag southward. Thus will keep some rain chances in play this evening, especially across the northern parts of the forecast area. Overnight low temperatures will only fall to the upper 60s as high dew points are in place across Central Indiana.

Sunday...

Better chances for rain will arrive on Sunday. An upper trough within the flow aloft is expected to approach Indiana through the day. Models suggest southwest flow and forcing dynamics ahead of this system to push across Indiana. The previously mentioned surface boundary will remain in place, adding a forcing feature available, along with diurnal instability. Given the expected tropical flow aloft, afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development is expected. Forecast soundings trend toward saturation with pwats over 1.8 inches. Thus, heavy rain will be in play with some of the showers and storms. Look for Highs in the middle 80s.

Monday...

The wet pattern is expected to continue on Monday as the upper wave continued its approach toward and across Indiana The warm and humid air mass will remain in place, keeping a favorable set-up in place for showers and storms. Confidence remains high for precipitation as these features are in play. Highs once again should reach the middle 80s.u

Tuesday through Friday Night...

Chances for rain will persist through much of the week ahead. An upper trough will push across Indiana on Tuesday, and some weak forcing dynamics will pass on Wednesday. Thereafter, upper ridging is expected to be found east of Indiana, allowing southwest flow aloft as a stronger trough approaches for Friday and Friday night. Meanwhile through all this time, forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates and favorable CAPE each afternoon. The lower level flow will predominately be warm and humid gulf flow as surface high pressure will be stagnant east of the Carolinas. Thus best chances for rain will be on Tuesday and again on Friday and Friday night when the best forcing chances area expected to pass. Otherwise, daily diurnal showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Given our expected warm and humid gulf flow, warm and humid conditions will be expected with highs in the upper 0s by late in the work week.

Saturday...

For the moment, dry and mild weather looks in store for Saturday. The moderate passing wave and cold front on Friday Night will allow surface high pressure over the northern plains build across Indiana, allowing a cooler and less humid air mass to arrive across the area.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.