textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry through midweek with mix of rain and snow chances returning late Thursday through the weekend, uncertainty remains

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder temperatures expected

- Generally near seasonal temperatures this week, except Tuesday when highs are expected to be in the 40s and 50s.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 930 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Only minor updates needed to the forecast this morning, mainly concerning cloud cover. Stratus associated with broad isentropic lift persists across the northeastern portion of central Indiana. The clouds have a uniform and stable appearance, indicated by the presence of Kelvin-Helmholtz waves. The clouds are trapped beneath a stout warm nose situated at roughly 7000 ft agl. This should keep the clouds intact through the morning hours as they slowly lift northeastward.

High cirrus simultaneously builds in from the northwest as a weak system ejects from the Rockies and interacts with an existing low over southern Canada. High-level cloud cover could become thick by the evening before a clearing trend takes over overnight.

In the meantime, areas that are not currently underneath the stratus layer will see a nice warm up today. Temperatures are expected to rise into the 30s and even the low 40s across our far southwest. Temperatures should be moderated by snow cover somewhat, especially since winds look to be on the light side (under 10kt). Underneath the stratus, temperatures may remain relatively stable in the 20s for a good portion of the day.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Early this morning, a persistent band of clouds continued across the northeast half or so of the forecast area, on the edge of a baroclinic zone aloft. Warm advection and isentropic lift are producing the clouds.

The baroclinic zone and the lift will gradually move northeast this morning, and this will take the clouds with it. Some uncertainty remains in the speed of this occurrence though. Meanwhile, high clouds will move into the area from the northwest today.

The result will be skies becoming partly cloudy across the entire area today. Weak warm advection at the surface will still allow readings to rebound into the 30s to lower 40s. Blended guidance looks a bit warm given the snow cover, especially northeast. Will trim back a bit.

Tonight, warm advection will increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Dewpoints will rise with the warm advection, and this air moving across cold ground/snow cover could generate some fog, especially southwest where the best moisture advection will be.

Some models are aggressive with the fog, but confidence isn't high as the southwest generally has the warmest ground. For now will stick with a patchy fog mention.

The warm advection will keep temperatures warmer than previous nights, with lows in the middle 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Tuesday through Wednesday...

An upper wave and cold front are expected to move through early in the extended. Increasing warm air advection ahead of the cold front will promote mild temperatures with highs on Tuesday ranging from the 40s across the northeast to the 50s further southwest.

No precipitation is expected as the front passes through the area. While modest moisture advection occurs ahead of the front, mid-upper level forcing from the parent trough should remain well north of central Indiana. A southern stream wave aiding in moisture transport should also remain well south with only weak forcing in place across central Indiana. The forecast remains dry for these reasons.

Look for dry conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday as surface high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Cold air advection will also lead to cooler temperatures. More seasonal highs in the mid 30s to mid 40s are expected Wednesday.

Thursday through the weekend...

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards the latter half of the week as there due to diverging model solutions, especially into the weekend. Guidance depicts a weakening system approaching from the northwest late Thursday into Friday leading to increasing precipitation chances. However, limited moisture return and some models quickly weakening the system leads to lower confidence in the potential for precipitation. At this time, 20-30% POPs remain in the forecast and any QPF amounts should be light. Thermal profile suggest snow as the predominant precipitation type Thursday night with some rain possibly mixing in Friday.

Guidance suggest another shortwave moves through the region this weekend keeping chances for precipitation in the forecast, but large variability leads to low confidence in exact details at this time. Given the large spread, will stick with blended which keeps POPs through the weekend. It is worth mentioning some long term guidance depicts the potential for a strong low pressure system to develop with heavy rainfall likely somewhere across the central CONUS. Ensemble solutions keep this threat mostly south of the forecast area at this time, but will continue to monitor trends closely. Rain should be the predominant precipitation type as temperatures slightly warm into the weekend. Some snow could mix in at times though.

The milder temperatures this week along with rain chances late week will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat so will continue to monitor the potential weekend storm system closely.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1241 PM EST Mon Feb 9 2026

Impacts:

- Low level wind shear after 06Z Tuesday - Wind direction shifting from SE to SW and then NW on Tuesday

Discussion:

A potent storm system is moving east over southern Canada and will allow a strong low-level jet to develop overnight. This jet may reach speeds of 45 to 55 knots only 1500 feet off the ground. We've included a period of low-level wind shear late tonight into Tuesday morning.

Winds at the surface are expected to remain under 10kt today and most of tonight. Direction quickly becomes southwesterly once momentum from the low-level jet begins mixing downward after sunrise Tuesday. However, winds shift abruptly yet again Tuesday afternoon as the system's cold front sweeps through central Indiana.

Some low stratus or advection fog may develop early Tuesday as warmer winds from the south overspread existing snow cover. The threat for this is low at the moment and fog will not be included in the TAFs at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.