textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler weather today

- Freeze Warning in effect for northern half of central Indiana through 10 am. Below freezing temps are again possible tonight in the NE

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through next weekend

- Rain chances return at times from Thursday onward, which may bring receding rivers back into flood in some areas, with active weather potentially continuing beyond the 7 day forecast period

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Quiet but chilly start to the forecast period. Temperatures this morning will be in the mid to upper 30s in the south, but elsewhere near freezing down to the upper 20s will start the day thanks to a surface high passing to the north. The high will continue to drift to the east today, shifting the winds with it which will start from the NNE to E by tonight. Near to below freezing temperatures will again be possible in our NE tonight. Winds will finally become southerly by midday Wednesday as the high pushes further east and a low pressure system tracks north of the Great Lakes. This will bring WAA and a return to above normal temps for the remainder of the week.

The cold front off of the approaching low will bring rain chances to central Indiana as we get into the weekend. Models are showing that the front will likely stall just to our NW from Wednesday night into Thursday night, limiting PoPs over our NW counties during that time. Current thinking is that the front will finally push southeastward Friday and on, prompting our best precip and thunder chances for the week.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 309 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Expectation for this weekend into next week remains a return to above normal temperatures and a return to periods of active weather.

An elongated baroclinic zone will stall somewhere near the region over the weekend and begin fluctuating north and south in response to multiple disturbances developing along it, and may produce multiple opportunities for convection, though model disagreements limit forecast confidence in timing and details here.

Potential will exist for multiple rounds of precipitation, which could prolong or exacerbate ongoing flooding on main stem rivers given antecedent conditions as a result of the wet weather in recent weeks. Hydrologic ensembles do show renewed river rises next weekend in response to this potential rainfall, though a mostly dry week will help to hopefully blunt these impacts a bit.

There is little to indicate significant severe threats during the latter portion of the forecast period, and this is backed up by experimental machine learning guidance. That said, week two outlooks continue to indicate enhanced likelihood of warmer than normal and above normal precipitation conditions, thus we may well be back in an active pattern for mid to late April, and at a minimum climatology suggests at least a threat or two for severe at some point in the latter part of the month.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 509 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Impacts:

- Winds shifting from NNE to E

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the period.

Winds will shift from the north/northeast to the east through the period, generally around or below 10KT. Little else of note is expected aside from some passing mid and high cloud.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-054>057-065.