textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered storms today, highest coverage across eastern Indiana

- Slow moving storms may produce pockets of flooding

- Generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better chances for showers and storms Thursday into the weekend

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 235 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Overview.

Isolated to scattered showers and storms today with rain chances tomorrow and Wednesday generally limited to southern Indiana. A cold front will approach the region on Thursday and is forecast to become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley, resulting in daily chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

Rest of Tonight Through Tuesday.

Patchy fog along with low stratus is expected to form over the next few hours, but with the lower than forecast rain coverage today, the low levels aren't quite as moist which should keep fog coverage lower than yesterday.

The weak surface low that has been a catalyst for the rain/storms recently will slowly move to the east towards the East Coast today with lingering chances for showers and storms through the day today, mainly focused across eastern Indiana. Morning low stratus and a shallow inversion will initially limit insolation and delay daytime destabilization. Following diurnal clearing by midday, MLCAPE is forecast to increase into the 500-1000 J/kg range. Convective initiation is expected to maximize during peak heating between 19Z and 02Z. Weak kinematic fields, with 0-6 km bulk shear under 15 knots, will limit storm organization and result in slow cell motion. Heavy rainfall and localized minor flooding represent the primary hazards, though isolated sub-severe wind gusts remain possible via localized precipitation loading. Storms will also exhibit a more unusual storm motion, generally out of the northeast.

The system will exit east of the region Monday night, allowing weak surface high pressure and drier air to advect into central Indiana from the north. Rising mid-level heights and associated subsidence will suppress convective potential across the majority of the forecast area on Tuesday. Isolated afternoon convection will be restricted to the far southern counties in closer proximity to the retreating moisture plume. High temperatures will remain near seasonal normals in the mid to upper 80s.

Wednesday Through Sunday.

Mid-level ridging over the region on Wednesday will begin to suppress southward as heights aloft fall to the north and a weak upper-level low tracks through the lower Ohio Valley. Lingering dry air and large-scale subsidence will limit afternoon convective coverage, keeping the probability of isolated thunderstorms confined to the southern forecast area boundary.

A pattern transition occurs Thursday through Sunday as a northern stream shortwave trough digs into the Great Lakes, driving a surface cold front southward. Guidance indicates this boundary will become quasi-stationary across the region late in the week as it encounters a flat sub-tropical ridge over the Gulf Coast states. Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will track along the frontal zone, interacting with a replenished moisture reservoir featuring PWAT values near 2.00 inches.

This environment will favor the daily convective clusters and multi-cell arrays from Thursday through Sunday. Given weak deep- layer wind shear, organized severe weather is not anticipated, though localized downburst wind gusts remain possible with the strongest updrafts. High precipitation efficiency and potential training of cells will make localized heavy rainfall the primary operational impact. High temperatures will generally hover in the mid-80s through Friday with fairly similar conditions into the weekend as the previously forecast relief from the higher dewpoints looks less likely as the drier Canadian air remains locked to the north.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys to lift to VFR by 13-14Z

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible after 22Z today

Discussion:

Any lingering MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys are expected to improve to VFR by 13 to 14Z with a low-end chance that the cigs persist to 15-16Z. Cyclonic flow is expected to persist through the day with isolated to scattered showers and storms generally moving very slowly in a southwesterly direction. Best chances will be at IND towards the 22- 02Z timeframe, coverage elsewhere is too low to warrant even a PROB30 at this time. Winds will generally be northerly at 5-10kts through the TAF period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.