textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy today with gusts of 20-30 mph possible. Otherwise, partly sunny and warmer.

- Increasing clouds tonight with small chances for light precipitation.

- Precipitation likely Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Light snow accumulation is possible, primarily over northern portions of the area

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 954 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Despite some decent warm advection today, fairly widespread mid and high level cloud cover will help to limit insolation through the day. This, combined with lows getting a bit cooler than expected this morning (and still sitting in the low to mid 20s as we approach 10 AM), is likely to keep highs largely in the mid 30s to low 40s at best across the area, and have bumped max temps down a few degrees as a result. This has been the only substantive change to the going forecast this morning.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 217 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the lower Mississippi Valley, with a ridge axis extending northward across Illinois and Indiana. Water vapor shows mainly broad ridging in place the flow aloft over the western CONUS as high cloud within the northwest flow over the plains was streaming toward Indiana. Temperatures remained rather cold, in the teens, despite warm air advection aloft. Dry air was in place within the mid and lower levels with light winds promoting effective radiational cooling.

Today...

The surface high to the south and its associated ridge axis will drift east across the gulf coast states. Meanwhile, low pressure over Manitoba will drift east to Ontario and deepen. This low will help a cold front develop over MN/IA and KS. Ahead of this deepening low and frontal system, models suggest a strengthening pressure gradient. Models show a strong LLJ around 50 knts developing over Indiana this afternoon as this pressure gradient tightens. This will result in some gusty winds this afternoon.

Moisture is problem for this system, as dew point temperatures remain in the teens and gulf flow is blocked. Forecast soundings show continued dry lower and mid levels through the day with saturation in place aloft due to the high passing CI. This will be a good set-up for mixing, allowing some of the higher gusts this afternoon to mix. Warm air advection on southerly winds will also be in place. Thus will trend highs to around 40, with many spots reaching the lower 40s. Skies will be partly sunny with a windy afternoon expected.

Tonight...

As heating and mixing is lost, winds will subside. models continue to suggest plenty of dry air in place within the lower levels as the previously mentioned cold front looks to push across Indiana overnight. Aloft within the northwest flow a weak upper short wave will help provide some forcing, however best forcing looks to be across the Great Lakes, well north of Central Indiana. Forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation, but certainly do trend toward a more moist column. HRRR does suggest a band of rain/snow pushing across central Indiana during the overnight hours. Thus will include some limited pops for very light precipitation, and confidence is low. Look for lows in the lower 30s

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 217 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

A majority of the long term synoptic pattern will be influenced by consistent ridging over the western CONUS, placing the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions in predominantly NW flow, and downstream of consistent supergeostrophic cyclogenesis. That said, this ridging will slowly breakdown throughout the week, and by the weekend, mean upper level flow will become more westerly, leading to greater influence from low level disturbances.

Initially, an amplified low level wave downstream of a strong jet streak will pass to the north late Tuesday through Wednesday. A front associated with this wave is expected to move through Wednesday morning, shifting flow back to a more uniform NW direction and ushering in cooler air. However, the baroclinic zone will likely stay just to our north, keeping mild weather for entirety of the day. As the front passes early Wednesday, a quick period of showers is possible. Some guidance is suggesting a mixture of precipitation types over northern portions of the area due to diurnal cooling prior to arrival, but given modest WAA ahead of the front, the current expectation is for this to all fall as rain.

Strong jet dynamics aloft along with a modest baroclinic zone within the lower Great Lakes will aid in pressure depletion late Wednesday through Wednesday night. As this happens, weak deformation will form on the north side of the passing pressure trough late Wednesday night through Thursday morning, creating a period of stratiform precipitation. Temperatures Thursday morning are likely to hover right around freezing, leading to some uncertainty on precipitation type across the region. However, 00Z ensemble guidance is trending towards a more northward baroclinic zone, leading to slightly warmer solutions and less snow. Ensemble members are also still varied on forcing placement, leading to even further uncertainty. Either way, large scale impacts are unlikely due to lack of high SLRs and minimal longevity. This all said, a quick, but wet inch to two inches cannot be ruled out north of the I-70 corridor Thursday morning.

After this weak low passage Thursday, an additional, stronger low will form in the lee of the northern Rockies, once again shifting flow back to the SW Thursday night into Friday. Temperatures should respond correspondingly, with afternoon highs above normal once again Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 554 AM EST Tue Feb 24 2026

Impacts:

- VFR expected this TAF period.

- Southerly wind gusts of 20-30 knts possible this afternoon.

Discussion:

Little overall change from the previous forecast.

High pressure centered over the gulf coast continues to provide continued quiet weather across Central Indiana during this most of the TAF period. GOES19 shows northwest flow in place aloft, allowing areas of high CI to stream toward the TAF sites. Forecast soundings through 06Z show only high saturation, indicative of this northwest flow of high CI.

Within the lower levels a stronger area of low pressure is suggested to push in to the western Great Lakes this afternoon. A moderate pressure gradient is suggested to set up over central Indiana between the high to the south and low to the north. This will allow wind gusts to around 35 mph this afternoon as favorable lower level mixing will be be in place.

Winds should begin to subside toward sunset as mixing is lost. A weak upper wave will arrive late this evening and overnight. This will produce more mid level clouds but continued VFR conditions.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.