textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy skies with isolated to scattered light showers clearing out into the evening.

- Dry weather arrives tonight through the start of the work week.

- Additional rain and storm chances arrive late this week.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 308 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Today through Tonight...

Broad cyclonic still in place from a departing low pressure system along with lingering moisture continues to promote isolated to scattered light showers across portions of central Indiana. Look for these showers to diminish in coverage through this evening as the disturbance shifts southeastward. Thunderstorms are not expected due to very limited instability.

Surface high pressure building in behind the departing system will help clear out clouds this evening into tonight. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient relaxing should allow winds to become light. Expect patchy fog to develop late overnight once winds become light as the ground remains saturated from recent rainfall. Any fog that develops will mix out quickly Monday morning.

Monday through Wednesday...

Expect mostly quiet weather conditions given surface high pressure remains in control across the region. Latest guidance now suggest the departing low pressure system today will not retrograde back into central Indiana after becoming cutoff. The forecast is now completely dry for Tuesday and Wednesday for this reason. That said, deeper moisture advecting back near far southeast portions of central Indiana along with weak dynamics from the system and diurnal heating could support a stray shower.

Wednesday night onward...

Multiple embedded shortwaves traversing the region Wednesday night through end of the week will promote additional convective chances. Exact details remain uncertain at this time due to diverging model solutions. The greatest precipitation chances are on Thursday when the strongest forcing overlaps with deeper moisture surging northward. Thunderstorms will be possible at times as guidance depicts sufficient destabilization. Severe weather is not expected at this time, but some guidance depicting moderate destabilization and modest enhancement of mid-upper level flow from passing waves suggest a low threat for severe thunderstorms is not out of the question. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Impacts:

- Predominately MVFR early this afternoon improving to VFR later this afternoon into the early evening

- Isolated shower cannot be ruled out near IND/BMG through this evening

Discussion:

Low pressure over southern Indiana is expected to slowly drift SE through the day. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out near IND/BMG, but confidence is too low for an explicit mention. Predominately MVFR cigs ongoing will improve VFR late this afternoon into the early evening as the surface high to the northwest begins to build across Indiana. Look for northerly flow through much of the period to turn northeasterly on Monday.

Patchy fog is possible late tonight. Confidence remains too low for an explicit mention. A brief period of MVFR cigs also appears possible Saturday morning near IND/BMG. Some uncertainty remains, but a TEMPO was included.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.