textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Afternoon and evening scattered storms again today and Monday, severe weather is not expected

- Slow moving storms may produce pockets of flooding

- More unsettled pattern develops Thursday into next weekend with cooler temperatures

DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)

Issued at 241 PM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

An exceptionally moist airmass remains over the Ohio Valley with continued risks for mainly afternoon and evening convection through Monday as an upper wave slowly drifts through. Upper level ridging will briefly reestablish as the wave aloft and deeper moisture shift south for midweek. The approach of a cold front which is likely to stall in the region will bring a return of unsettled weather late week into the weekend.

This Afternoon through Tuesday Night

Stratus from this morning has been stubborn to say the least but have seen a gradual mixing out into a broken stratocu field over the last few hours. Temp rises were stunted as a result but as of 18Z readings now range from the upper 70s to mid 80s.

The thick cloud deck from earlier delayed destabilization across the forecast area but mesoanalysis indicating that 500-1000 j/kg MLCAPE now present. With a weaker upper wave over the region and abundant moisture lingering within the boundary layer...starting to see isolated convection develop. Just based on where the greatest instability and highest PWATs lie...the eastern half of the forecast area in particular will be the focus for greatest convective coverage into the evening. That being said...potential for a shower or storm remains over all of central Indiana into the evening.

To this point convection has been shallow in nature with the KIND ACARS sounding showing a cap present in the 825-750mb layer. Additional heating over the next few hours should erode that cap a bit but in the absence of substantial forcing and shear...convection will struggle to maintain height and intensity. Any stronger cell will carry a threat for locally gusty winds as cores collapse...but the slow storm motion supports torrential rainfall as the primary threat from convection through the evening.

Coverage will again diminish after sunset although may see a few showers linger across the northeast into the early overnight as a deeper moisture fetch curls in from the northeast. This will also bring a return of lower stratus and patchy fog as a shallow nocturnal inversion establishes. Monday will be a near carbon copy of today with morning stratus being slow to mix out. As filtered sun develops in the afternoon with the upper wave lingering over the region...isolated to scattered convection will again develop focused from mid afternoon into the evening. As the upper trough slips south Monday night...weak high pressure and drier air will advect into the region from the north. With ridging aloft expanding into the area as well...the convective threat will be forced closer to the Ohio River on Tuesday with only isolated convection possible in southern counties during the afternoon.

Highs Monday and Tuesday will largely be confined to the lower and mid 80s...with Monday as the cooler of the two days due to the expected cloud cover.

Wednesday Through Sunday

The brief ridging aloft that pokes into the area on Tuesday will be in the process of retreat on Wednesday as mid level heights buckle from the north and a weak upper level low drifts through the Ohio Valley. Enough dry air and subsidence lingering however should limit afternoon and evening convection substantially with the best threat for any thunderstorms over southern counties closer to the upper low and deeper moisture.

The primary feature for the extended will be a cold front set to drift south into the Ohio Valley on Thursday reestablishing a broader convective risk for the forecast area. There are increasing hints that the boundary may get bogged down over the region as it runs into the flattened ridge to the south...a typical mid-summer pattern when steering currents aloft are poor and surface waves are weak. With the upper level flow transitioning to northwest as the core of the heat ridge retrogrades into the Intermountain West... there is a growing potential for convective clusters to track across parts of the region late week into next weekend as individual perturbations aloft interact with the quasi-staionary frontal boundary.

Detail on placement of the boundary and primary timing of convective impacts remains inconclusive at this early stage...but daily rain chances are going to be needed into Saturday at a minimum with potential for the front to shift further south by Sunday. No strong signals are present for organized severe weather in the extended at this time but convection will likely carry a localized risk for damaging winds/microbursts with any stronger cells. Heavy rainfall and flooding will again be primary concerns with a deeply saturated airmass highlighted by PWATS approaching 2 inches.

Temperatures will largely hover near normal for much of the extended with highs in the 80s. Mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and Thursday will cool into the weekend. A cooler drier airmass advecting in from the north late weekend into early next week may allow for highs to fall back into the upper 70s in spots.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1154 AM EDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Impacts:

- Improvement to VFR this afternoon and evening. - Low confidence for additional showers and storms this afternoon - Potential for additional MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys tonight

Discussion:

Low pressure over NW Indiana was continuing to provide weak cyclonic flow across the area along with plentiful MVFR cloud cover. Daytime heating should allow the low cloud to dissipate, leading to some isolated afternoon CU development. HRRR shows widely scattered showers and storms with this feature late this afternoon and evening. However, confidence is low at this time as cloud cover is limiting daytime heating and we are running cooler then model temperature trends.

Any storms will dissipate after sunset, however cyclonic along with lingering lower level moisture will once again allow for MVFR/IFR cigs to form overnight with fog.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.