textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cooler weather through Friday with warmer temperatures returning this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms and heat returns next week.

- Severe weather is possible on Monday, but exact details remain uncertain

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 304 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Today through Friday night...

Strong surface high pressure across the region will promote quiet weather conditions. Current surface analysis early this morning depicts the surface high centered northwest of central Indiana with mostly clear skies. Dewpoints in the 50s, light winds, and clear skies has allowed for temperatures to cool efficiently overnight into the 50s. Look for additional cooling over the next few hours with lows in the low-mid 50s. A few rural locations across northern counties may fall into the upper 40s. Expect diurnal cumulus to develop later today once convective temperatures are reached. Deep mixing will likely drop dewpoints into the upper 40s to near 50F for portions of the area during the afternoon.

Expect passing waves aloft to result in increasing mid-high clouds tonight through early Saturday. Most guidance suggest subsidence induced dry air from the surface high should inhibit any precipitation chances so the forecast remains mostly dry. That said, sufficient forcing and moisture may be in place across far southwestern counties to support isolated showers. Look for temperatures to remain cooler than normal with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s through the end of the work week.

Saturday through early next week...

Long range guidance depicts weak surface high pressure remaining the dominant weather feature for much of the weekend providing mostly quiet weather conditions. Aloft, an amplified ridge centered near the Rockies with northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes Region should allow for a few shortwaves to pass through the region late this weekend into early next week. These disturbances along with deeper moisture advecting into central Indiana will return low rain chances to the forecast at times late Sunday into next week.

Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence in exact details during this period. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but ensemble guidance suggest that at least moderate destabilization will occur each day. This along with enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwaves could support a threat for severe weather, mainly on Monday. However, this will depend on how far east the upper ridge builds and where the shortwaves aloft track. Uncertainty will remain high until models become better aligned. Latest guidance also depicts an EML advecting towards the region which leads to lower confidence on convective coverage.

Warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned disturbances should warm temperatures well into the 80s to lower 90s Sunday through Tuesday. Dewpoints returning to the low-mid 70s will likely lead to peak heat indices around 100 degrees.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 626 AM EDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Impacts:

- None; VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

High pressure across the TAF sites during this period will continue to provide VFR conditions. Diurnal VFR CU will be present during heating hours as convective temperatures are reached. Winds will remain light and out of 040-080 degrees during much of the period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.