textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy flurries or an isolated light snow shower possible late tonight into Wednesday

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph possible Wednesday

- Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights for portions of central IN with continued cold temperatures through early next week

- Snow possible late Saturday into Sunday as a winter storm passes to the south, exact details remain uncertain

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 254 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

This afternoon through Wednesday...

Quiet weather is expected through tonight under the influence of surface high pressure. High pressure will then shift eastward with strengthening southerly flow as the MSLP gradient tightens ahead of an approaching weak system. Expect limited diurnal cooling due to this. Lows are likely going to range from the upper teens to mid 20s tonight.

The weak low pressure system will move in towards daybreak Wednesday. Very marginal moisture and weak forcing may promote patchy flurries or a few isolated light snow showers. No accumulations or impacts are expected at this time. Diurnal mixing into a strong LLJ associated with the system supports strong wind gusts up to 35 mph, especially over the southeast half of central Indiana. Look for near or slightly above normal highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s within strong southerly flow.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 254 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Wednesday night through Thursday...

A weak system is expected to push another cold front through the area Wednesday bringing a reinforcing shot of cold air. Precipitation appears very unlikely due to limited moisture. Surface high pressure will then build in Thursday behind the departing front providing quiet weather conditions. Cold air advection should keep highs slightly below normal in the upper 20s to to mid 30s.

Thursday night through Friday...

Surface high pressure remaining in control will keep weather conditions quiet. The main concern during this period is model guidance continues to be in good agreement showing additional shots of colder air with an arctic front pushing south. Look for stronger cold air advection to drop temperatures into the single digits and teens Thursday night with highs only in the single digits to teens Friday. These temperatures and a slight NW breeze are likely going to result in sub-zero wind chills for much of the area.

Friday night through early next week...

High confidence remains for below normal temperatures this period and potentially dangerous wind chills are possible heading into the weekend as a much colder airmass settles in. Single digit lows are likely through early next week with sub-zero wind chills at times. The coldest temperatures are expected Friday night into Saturday with lows near zero or in the single digits below zero for portions of central Indiana. Wind chills could be as low as -10F to -19F, primarily over the northwest half of the forecast area.

Model guidance also depicts a strong system developing into the weekend likely resulting in major travel impacts for a large part of the country. The aforementioned arctic front should settle south of the region by this weekend leading to a strong baroclinic zone over the mid-south. Meanwhile aloft, the sub-tropical jet and polar jet will phase together promoting strong large scale ascent within the right entrance region. Strong dynamics combined with anomalous gulf moisture overriding the baroclinic favors heavy wintry precipitation most likely from the mid-south to the mid-atlantic region. That being said, considerable uncertainty remains on the extent of impacts for central Indiana due to varying solutions.

Ensemble guidance continues to favor the heaviest snowfall amounts south of the forecast area, but there has been a slight northward trend the last few runs. Confidence in exact details regarding snow amounts or impacts will remain high until models become better aligned. The greatest chance for accumulating snow would be across the south/southeast where stronger forcing and deeper moisture is expected. Model trends will continue to be monitored closely for a more northward track which could lead to greater impacts across parts of central Indiana.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1240 PM EST Tue Jan 20 2026

Impacts:

- Wind shift from west to south later this afternoon into the early evening

- Non-convective LLWS late tonight into early Wednesday morning

- 25-32 kt wind gusts possible Wednesday

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Winds will gradually shift from the west to the south during the afternoon to early evening. Non-convective LLWS is then likely late tonight into early Wednesday morning. There may be a few gusts late tonight, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Wind gusts between 25-32 kts are possible Wednesday especially near IND/BMG.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.