textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for light showers later this afternoon into tonight, mainly across north Central Indiana.

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- Additional chances for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday and again towards mid week, temperatures remaining near to below normal.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1003 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Adjusted PoPs based on radar trends. Shower activity overall has been a bit less than some higher resolution guidance depicted earlier. There are still showers around, however, and more are developing upstream. Activity will remain very light though, with most seeing sprinkles than anything else. Additionally, pockets of clearing have been more expansive as well and we've lowered temperatures in the near-term to account for the enhanced but brief period of radiational cooling. Otherwise, the forecast remains in good shape.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 243 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

This afternoon through Sunday...

Quiet weather conditions are ongoing across central Indiana as surface high pressure remains overhead. Current satellite imagery depicts clear skies, but there is an enhanced area of cloud cover and precipitation further northwest of the area associated with a weak disturbance. This disturbance will move in later today into tonight supporting a chance for showers. Very dry air in the lower troposphere limits confidence on the potential for measurable precipitation though, especially given dewpoint depressions are around 20 to 25 degrees.

Any heavier showers that develop could saturate the pocket of drier air in the lower levels through evaporative cooling so POPs remain around 20 to 40 percent. A sub- severe strong wind gust cannot be completely ruled out this evening as forecast soundings show deep inverted V profiles. However, overall instability is very weak which limits the threat.

Look for low rain chances to remain in the forecast through the overnight as a weak boundary associated with the disturbance stalls near northern portions of Indiana. A better chance for precipitation is then expected on Friday once a slightly more organized system moves through. Strengthening southwesterly flow in the low levels will provide deeper moisture while a mid-level shortwave traverses the region. This combined with a weak surface wave developing supports the potential for numerous showers and isolated storms. Severe weather is not expected due to weak instability, but a few strong sub-severe storms are possible which could produce small hail or gusty winds.

Precipitation will clear out from NW to SE Friday night as the aforementioned system departs. Increasing heights aloft along with weak surface ridging building in should keep weather conditions quiet on Saturday. That said, a stray light shower cannot be ruled out across northern counties. Breezy conditions are also expected into the afternoon hours. Rain chances return to the forecast Saturday night into Sunday following another subtle wave moving in. Confidence is relatively low regarding the coverage or timing of any precipitation due to diverging model solutions. Some guidance now suggest the system may move out by Sunday morning with mostly quiet weather during the afternoon. POPs will need to be refined in future updates if models continue trend towards a quicker departure.

Warm air advection will allow temperatures to moderate through Saturday. Look for highs to reach the 70s by Saturday before then cooling into the 60s again on Sunday.

Sunday night onward...

Quiet weather conditions are likely through Monday with most guidance depicting strong high pressure building in. Rain chances return once again on Tuesday ahead of another low pressure system. Coverage of precipitation and overall QPF amounts remain uncertain this far out. One of the main caveats is moisture return appears subtle ahead of the approaching system. An amplified shortwave should promote surface cyclogenesis north of the area so light precipitation does appear likely for at least parts of central Indiana. This system is expected to depart on Wednesday supporting drier conditions. Look for temperatures to gradually moderate towards the middle of next week.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 740 PM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated light showers possible through tonight, except at BMG.

- Sporadic gusts between 18-24 kt possible on Friday

- Rain likely on Friday after 18z, with MVFR conditions possible

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected across central Indiana terminals into Friday morning. SCT/BKN mid clouds are expected this afternoon through tonight. A few light showers crossing north central IN tonight may briefly impact HUF, IND and LAF, MVFR visibilities appear unlikely. Lower VFR ceilings are possible by Friday morning around 040 to 060. Westerly winds will become S/SW this evening into tonight. Look for sporadic gusts between 18-24 kt on Friday.

Another round of showers is likely on Friday, mainly from 18z onward. Odds of reduced visibility are higher, and a prob30 group has been included for this possibility. Additionally, some thunder is possible but not probable enough to be mentioned in the TAFs just yet. MVFR conditions are possible with the rain on Friday.

Guidance shows the rain showers rapidly diminishing towards the end of the TAF period, with clearing and fog development possible thereafter.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.