textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy flurries or an isolated light snow shower possible this morning

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible

- Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights along with wind chills at or below -10

- Potential for a winter storm this weekend, best chances for accumulating snow across southern Indiana

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 233 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a frontal boundary stretching from eastern WI to northern MO to low pressure near the TX panhandle. This was resulting in relatively warmer southwest flow in place across Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor continued to show broad cyclonic flow across the northern CONUS east of the Rockies. This was keeping a cold, arctic flow, continuing to stream across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows mid and high cloud over IL, NRN IN and northern MO, along and near the approaching front. These clouds were pushing east within the flow aloft. National radar mosaics show show some precipitation near the nose of IA and virga has been seen across northern Indiana on Radar. the lower levels remain quite dry as dew points were in the single digits.

Today...

The upper level pattern is suggested to change little, keeping the cold flow aloft in place. Models show a short wave within this flow will push across Indiana this morning along with the associated cloud cover as seen on GOES19. While this feature will provide enough support for the clouds and virga, the dry air within the lower levels may be just too much to overcome. Forecast soundings never show deep saturation through the column today, only showing limited lower level saturation this morning with expected clouds as the associated trough passes. This may only be enough for a few stray snowflakes or flurries and widespread measurable precipitation will not be expected. Will use low to no pops in the forecast.

By mid to late afternoon, the front will have passed to the east and forecast soundings trend toward a dry column amid subsidence within the flow aloft. Thus partly cloudy skies will be expected by the afternoon rush hours.

Warm air advection remains in place through mid day. This along with cloud cover will result in our warmest day in a short while, reaching the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Tonight...

Clear and colder weather is expected tonight. Models suggest strong subsidence in place in the wake of the passed wave as the upper level pattern remains unchanged. Forecast soundings show a dry column, resulting in a mostly clear sky. Within the lower levels, Indiana will be caught between low pressure over eastern Ontario and high pressure over KS. These to features will allow for a continued westerly flow of cold air into Central Indiana. A weak spoke of a trough, passing around the low to the northeast, is suggested to pass overnight, but with the very dry air mass in place, it may only result in a few passing mid and high clouds. Thus a dry forecast is expected. Cold air advection remains in play tonight. The pressure gradient across the area will allow for mixing to remain, but lows in the upper teens to near 20F appear likely.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 233 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Thursday Through Sunday.

The long term period begins with a sharp transition back to a colder regime on Thursday following the departure of a mid-week clipper system. A secondary, more potent arctic front is expected to sweep through the Ohio Valley during the day bringing strong cold air advection and falling temperatures. As a strong 1040mb+ surface high pressure system dives out of the Southern Canada into the Upper Midwest by Thursday night, the pressure gradient will begin to tighten. This will result in gusty northerly to northwesterly winds combining with single-digit overnight lows to produce wind chill values potentially plummeting into the -10 to -20 degree range by early Friday morning.

The main focus for the long term period continues to center on the synoptic setup for the Friday through Sunday timeframe, where global models and ensembles including the GEFS, Euro, and Canadian continue to depict a phasing of jets inducing cyclogenesis along the Gulf Coast. Run-to-run consistency among ensembles favors a storm track south of the Ohio River, largely suppressed by the aforementioned arctic high positioned over the Great Lakes which typically limits the northward extent of precipitation through Saturday. Current probabilistic guidance indicates that the highest chances for a more impactful snowfall remains closer of the Ohio River and into Kentucky.

That being said, a subset of ensemble members, particularly within the Euro suite, continue to show a northerly trend with the secondary portion of the system towards Sunday as the aforementioned high begins to break down which brings accumulating snow to areas along and south of the I-70 corridor. The GEFS remains more aggressive with dry air entrainment associated with the polar high which would keep the precipitation cutoff closer to the Ohio River while the Euro and Canadian ensembles are more pessimistic with snowfall totals across Indiana. Consequently, confidence is high in much below normal temperatures but remains low to medium regarding precipitation chances, warranting only chance PoPs across the south and southeast while northern areas likely remain dry.

As mentioned above, temperature forecasts for the period carry very high confidence regardless of the snow potential, as the NBM temperature spread remains quite narrow in signaling a deep intrusion of arctic air. High temperatures for Friday and Saturday will likely struggle to exit the teens, while overnight lows are expected to drop into the single digits to slightly below zero. These values suggest that additional cold weather headlines may be needed for portions of the forecast area late in the week and into the weekend.

Monday and Tuesday.

The pattern looks to remain active but cold heading into early next week, as the longwave trough persists over the Eastern U.S. following the departure of the weekend system. This setup will maintain northwest flow across central Indiana, keeping highs in the 20s and lows in the single digits or teens through Tuesday with lower chances for sub-zero temperatures.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 542 AM EST Wed Jan 21 2026

Impacts:

-Southwesterly wind gusts up to 27kts 15Z to 23Z -Low chance for -SN at LAF along with MVFR cigs

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected for much if not all of the TAF period with only minimal chances for MVFR cigs this morning and a few light snow showers towards LAF. Cigs have begun to drop as the lower levels gradually saturate but expect them to remain VFR through the morning outside of a low chance at IND and LAF. Snow chances are minimal but highest at LAF this morning with dry weather expected otherwise. Winds will continue to gradually become more southwesterly this morning with gusts as high as 27kts from 15Z to 23Z before dropping to around 8-12kts tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.