textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers through tonight, possibly mixed with snow tonight into Friday.

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible this evening into tonight.

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow warming trend

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 957 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Made minor upward adjustments to both min temperatures and cloud cover overnight - guidance suggests low overcast should remain in place throughout the night, which even with modest cold advection continuing should keep temperatures a few degrees above dewpoints. Still anticipate mid 30s lows across central Indiana. Diurnal warming tomorrow will depend upon when breaks in the clouds begin to form, which may not be until late in the day, which may only allow 5-8 degrees of rise tomorrow.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low pressure currently resides over western Pennsylvania with broad cyclonic flow extending throughout the Great Lakes region. Broad lift combined with multiple subtle surface troughs are leading to scattered showers this afternoon. With cold air advection ongoing aloft and steepening lapse rates, precipitation has been convective in nature. There have been a few reports of graupel at times. Mixed precipitation will remain possible overnight as temperatures continue to cool.

Additionally, fetch off of Lake Michigan is maximized with northwesterly flow. This could allow for an enhanced band of precipitation extending into the northern or northwestern portions of our CWA. Some snow may mix in especially within this lake band tonight into Friday morning.

Winds remain elevated as the MSLP gradient around the low remains tight. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible through tonight. These winds should gradually diminish tomorrow as the low pulls away. Cloud cover may linger well into the afternoon and evening hours on Friday as cyclonic flow maintains enough weak lift to support stratocumulus.

As for temperatures a small diurnal spread is anticipated due to wind and cloud cover. Highs today in the 40s will drop into the 30s overnight. Temperatures rebound into the upper 40s again on Friday. Skies clear over the weekend which will allow the temperature spread to widen. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to dip into the 20s both Friday night and Saturday night.

One caveat to the temperature forecast Saturday and Sunday is lingering northwesterly flow. A narrow band of cloud cover extending downwind of Lake Michigan may persist so long as the fetch remains off the primary axis of the lake. These clouds will insulate the boundary layer keeping lows closer to 30 compared to the mid 20s elsewhere. Based on the expected wind field, this temperature uncertainty is greatest across our northeastern counties.

Monday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist for much of next week. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into the Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and lower 30s through the period.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 621 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers at times into Friday morning

- Gusty northwest wind this evening

- MVFR ceilings through most or all of the period, occasional IFR possible late tonight

Discussion:

A large upper level low will continue to pivot over the area during the period, with widespread low stratus, scattered showers, and chilly northwest winds expected.

Most areas are near or just above VFR threshold at this point, but should settle back into widespread MVFR later this evening and remain so throughout most of not all of the rest of the period, save for IND which may return to VFR during the 30 hour portion of the TAF.

Some dips into IFR are possible late tonight into Friday morning, but are highly uncertain. Will carry a SCT008 mention at all sites for the time being.

Northwest winds will be the rule through the period, generally between 320-340 degrees. Gusts of 18-25KT will continue through the evening before ending late.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.