textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and t-storms possible today over northern central Indiana both early this morning, and more so this afternoon into tonight

- A few storms this afternoon and evening may contain marginally damaging winds and large hail...with isolated flooding possible

- Humid, very warm conditions start Sunday...with occasional, often PM showers/t-storms, especially on Monday and Tuesday

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Issued at 336 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

More active pattern for central Indiana to begin today, with showers and at least a few thunderstorms favored into the middle of next week...with the return to generally dry conditions likely allowing widespread low 90s and potentially 100F+ heat indices. Generally disturbed pattern to exhibit overly diurnally-driven showers/TRWs, with more widespread rain coverage focused this afternoon/tonight across the CWA's northern half...and then for all zones within the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Northern wave crossing the Great Lakes today will drag the tail of its cold front across the northern Midwest...setting the stage for showers and t-storms early this morning along our northern tier where southwest breezes will combine with lift from this approaching boundary. Cannot rule out a few stronger cells, although very low confidence in any damaging wind threat early today. Better shot at marginally strong/severe storms arrives this afternoon/evening and possibly into portions of the overnight...as the next wave to our west helps direct ribbon of increasing Gulf moisture into the stationary boundary. Focus will remain over region's northern half, albeit now with opportunities for a few severe storms with winds and hail the only modes of concern, with the threat slowly waning during the evening. Perhaps greater overall concern will be localized flash flooding as heavier rain may train west to east over same areas, with chances for flooding increasing through PM hours over far northern zones.

Turning to next week, a weakly forced and slowly-progressing short wave...nestled on the west side of an eastern-NA upper ridge... will drift from the central US today, to Indiana Monday night. This feature will combine with broad but weak surface ridging to our east to promote slow increase of Gulf moisture northward into the Midwest, with precipitable water values over 1.75 inches from dawn Sunday into the mid-week. Unsettled and humid set-up will often host considerable cloudiness, as readings range from a muggy 70F or so to somewhere in the 80s...with temperatures slowly trending upward into the mid-week. Often isolated to scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder will surround a 24-hour period of more widespread showers and scattered thunder within Monday-Tuesday when the short wave slowly trucks east across Indiana. Too early to decipher if any severe storms will occur, but at least isolated strong cells will be on the table.

Turning hot at the end of the period amid southwest gusts around 10-20 mph both Wednesday and Thursday under decreasing clouds. Highs will most likely reach the low 90s for Thursday and Friday for most locations, while oppressive dewpoints still in the 70-75F realm boost heat Indices potentially to 95-105 degrees during afternoons.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 113 AM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms impact KIND and KLAF after daybreak and through the morning - An additional round of storms possible late afternoon into the evening focused again at KIND and KLAF - Peak gusts to around 20-25kts at times this afternoon - Scattered MVFR ceilings possible at times

Discussion:

Quiet weather will continue for the next several hours as the deeper moisture plume remains displaced to the northwest of central Indiana. Convection will develop and expand into northern Indiana in the predawn hours and push southeast...likely impacting KLAF near and just after daybreak and KIND in the 13 to 17Z timeframe. Confidence in convective evolution remains low and will continue to highlight with prob30s.

There will be a lull in shower coverage late morning through mid afternoon before renewed development occurs in the vicinity of a nearly stationary frontal boundary over north central Indiana late day continuing into the evening. KIND and KLAF will again be more likely to be impacted with most if not all convection remaining north of KBMG and KHUF. W/SW winds will gust to near 20-25kts at times this afternoon.

Sky cover remains tricky through much of the period and will depend on convective coverage. Anticipate VFR ceilings between 4000-10000 feet will prevail most of the time but there is potential for a gradual trend toward MVFR ceilings at times Saturday with increasing low level moisture.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.