textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts between 20-35 mph possible today with an elevated fire weather threat during the afternoon.

- Numerous rain showers are expected Friday with an isolated t-storm possible, dry weather is expected for the weekend.

- More rain chances on Monday through Wednesday may bring receding rivers back into flood stages for some areas with active weather potentially continuing beyond the 7 day forecast period.

- Above normal temperatures expected through early next week.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 309 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

The next week will see above normal temperatures, breezy days, and a couple chances for rain and thunderstorms.

Dry air sits over central Indiana for the start of the forecast period as a low pressure system north of the Great Lakes tracks eastward. As expected, the cold front off of the low has really slowed down and the associated rain has diminished some as it approaches central Indiana. As of early this morning, the line of rain stretches from Chicago to western Illinois. Models continue to show that the front and the rain with it should stay to our north throughout the day with the exception of some light rain periodically moving into our far northern counties today. Soundings show a deep dry layer through the day that will take quite some time to overcome, especially as deep mixing expected today will further mix down the dry air aloft as well as wind gusts of up to 30 mph. Due to this, today will be another day of slightly elevated fire danger with afternoon relative humidities down to around 30%.

By late tonight into early tomorrow morning, the front is finally expected to push southeastward across central Indiana and exit to the south by Saturday morning. Wind gusts with the front should be up to 25 mph with slightly higher gusts possible in stronger storm cells, otherwise no severe weather is expected. Temperatures will also drop slightly behind the front, but will still generally be above normal. Less than half an inch of rain is expected with this system. A surface high will bring dry weather for most of the weekend. Saturday will see highs from the mid 60s to low 70s but Sunday will warm to into the 80s thanks to the return of SW flow and WAA.

Models show an active pattern probable for next week with the SW flow setting up over the area. Temps will likely remain above normal with highs in the 70s to near 80 in the forecast. While timing and details are unclear at this time, the next round of rain and thunderstorms is progged for at least midweek. Constant rain is not expected and there will be many dry hours, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 652 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS through 14z and again after 06z for LAF and IND

- Southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 kt expected today, potential for higher gusts up to 30kt

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Low pressure passing to the north of Indiana this morning will induce a potent low-level jet, allowing for a period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) around 40-45 knots. Wind shear continues into the morning hours before diurnal mixing causes it to diminish.

Diurnal mixing helps transfer momentum from the low-level jet to the surface, so as the LLWS diminishes surface gusts are expected to pick up. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 25kt are expected, with the potential for gusts as high as 30kt. Winds gradually diminish during the afternoon as low pressure to the north moves eastward into Canada. LAF may see a few sprinkles through the day but not enough confidence to put in the TAF.

There is another chance of LLWS late tonight for LAF and IND as the front starts to push into central Indiana.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.