textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph at times

- Scattered snow showers this morning

- Scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday...with flurries and occasional snow showers late Wednesday-Friday

- Trend into dry yet colder conditions this weekend

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 938 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Radar late this morning shows areas of light snow showers pushing across Central Indiana from the northwest. This was amid broad cyclonic flow in place across Indiana due to deep low pressure in place over western Quebec. Strong high pressure was in place over the southern plains with a ridge axis that stretched north to Minnesota. GOES shows plentiful cloud cover upstream over northern IL and WI.

Snow showers should continue to persist through the morning hours across central Indiana as they continue to pull away to the northeast with the associated low pressure area. This will also allow for a gradual decrease in cloud cover arriving from the southwest by mid to late afternoon. Thus minor adjustments to the forecast, including some low pops for snow through the morning hours. Given the lingering clouds and ongoing cold air advection, trended highs slightly cooler to the upper 20s to around 30.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Upper-level water vapor imagery shows a well-defined vort max moving southeastward across northern Illinois. A cold front passed through ahead of it, roughly around midnight. Temperatures have dropped into the 20s following a period of light to moderate snowfall. Amounts upwards of an inch were reported near the Illinois Indiana state line, with lesser totals further south and east. Continued snow shower activity is likely as the cold unstable core of the vort max passes overhead. Snow shower activity diminishes around 14z as the vort max center passes east into Ohio. A few lake- enhanced snow showers downwind of Lake Michigan may persist a bit longer across northern Indiana. Some of these may reach as far south as Muncie and points northeast.

Winds remain brisk through the morning hours and into the afternoon. Surface low pressure to our northeast and high pressure rapidly approaching from the southwest should promote a tight MSLP gradient. West-northwesterly winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30kt are possible at times. Winds rapidly diminish this evening as the high builds in. The high center looks to pass just to our south, however, so a period of calm wind is not likely. Instead, winds quickly become west-southwesterly while increasing ahead of an upstream system passing over the Great Lakes. Winds may once again gust upwards of 20-25kt by Monday morning.

Temperatures likely reach near or just above freezing today, with the coldest readings across locations that saw measurable snow overnight. Persistent low stratus and wind should help keep temperatures fairly steady for the most part. A period of clearing is possible this evening, which may allow for a few hours of good radiational cooling potential. As such, lows overnight drop into the 20s early before increasing winds and clouds level things off.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 324 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

This week will be overall seasonal as temperatures trend from briefly mild into Tuesday...to near to slightly below normal Wednesday night into the weekend. A day of transition Wednesday will feature scattered showers changing from rain to snow, with additional flurries/snow showers into the weekend.

Broad polar trough over mush of central/eastern North America will drag its more-zonal southern periphery over the Midwest through the early workweek. Moderate gradient between surface high well to our south and seasonably strong low pressure crossing the northern Great Lakes will provide robust southwesterly breezes gusting up to 20-30 mph both Monday and Tuesday...returning temperatures from the mid- 20s early Monday to around 50F later on Tuesday. At time ample sun Monday will shift to increasing cloudiness Tuesday ahead of the next wave.

Wednesday's colder transition will be accompanied by overall lighter precipitation that may occur as two-parts...following plunging polar surface high pressure that will guide the amplification of the corresponding H500 trough southward from the Twin Cities to the TN Valley. Increasing coverage of rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday will oversee winds increasing while veering to northwest. A secondary flux of snow showers around the late Wednesday to Wednesday night timeframe will have the potential for a rather brief burst should forcing cross over southern Lake Michigan...with any isolated stronger snow showers most likely west of I-65 given near- northerly headings through the boundary layer.

Lowest wind chills of the long term expected for early Thursday as hyper-amplified polar ridge builds east across the Mississippi Valley into Indiana...allowing likely partial clearing, readings below 20F and lingering moderate breezes...yielding wind chills as low as the single digits. Temperatures will struggle to exceed seasonably chilly levels with any southwesterly breezes still advecting out of the dome's cold axis well to our south. Flurries and a few snow showers to continue through much of the late work week with mositure-starved low levels beneath disturbed mid-level pattern. Outlook into weekend favors dry yet colder conditions.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1150 AM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Impacts:

- Snow ends this afternoon with MVFR. - Return to VFR tonight.

Discussion:

Radar continues to show snow showers diminishing across Central Indiana. This trend will continue through mid afternoon as high pressure slowly build across Indiana by late afternoon from the plains states. A moderate pressure gradient across the area will result in gusty winds through the afternoon. GOES19 continue to show MVFR cigs across the area. These are also expected to persist through some of the afternoon before clearing tonight as high pressure builds.

Tonight and into Monday, the cyclonic flow and clouds will have exited to the northeast allowing high pressure and warm air advection aloft to build across central Indiana. Forecast soundings trend toward a dry column. Thus have trended the TAFs toward VFR conditions tonight and Monday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.