textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Blowing and drifting snow, especially in rural areas, possible tonight into Tuesday morning

- Extreme Cold Warning tonight with wind chills between -20 to -25 degrees

- Dangerous wind chills through at least Friday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Skies have cleared behind yesterday's storm system as surface high pressure passes closely to our southwest. The high quickly skirts south of us with southwesterly winds returning by tonight. Further north, a weak clipper zips eastward over the northern Great Lakes tonight. A tightening MSLP gradient between the two will allow for a potent low-level jet to develop overnight.

With relatively clear skies currently overhead, we'll see a brief period of efficient radiative cooling right after sunset. Low temperatures tonight likely occur before midnight before SW winds and clouds begin to increase. Expect lows between 0 to -5 with locally colder readings. Wind chills down to -20 to -25 are possible before a gradual warming trend begins late in the night. As such, an Extreme Cold Warning will remain in effect tonight.

Despite the potency of the LLJ, the upstream air mass is still very cold along with a deep snowpack extending all the way back to Texas. Therefore, even though high temperatures tomorrow may be 10 to 20 degrees warmer than the previous day...they will still be very cold. Highs in the upper teens to low 20s are about as warm as we'll see. The clipper's attendant cold front arrives late morning or early afternoon, which puts an end to the brief warm up. Clouds associated with the clipper begin to dissipate during the afternoon as well.

Another period of efficient radiative cooling is likely tomorrow night into Wednesday morning. This time, it will last through the night allowing temperatures to cool to well-below zero. Widespread lows of near -10 are possible, especially in rural areas. Locally colder readings as low as -15 to -20 cannot be ruled out...though these readings would likely be outliers.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 248 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing continued east coast troughing with persistent northwesterly flow aloft. Occasional clipper systems passing to our north may allow for brief periods of SW return flow, but little in the way of temperature relief is expected. A strongly negative Arctic Oscillation and positive Pacific North American pattern add weight to the continuation of the current weather pattern.

Our primary weather hazard through the coming week will be the cold. Daily highs well below freezing are expected, with lows at or just below zero each night through the weekend. Combined with winds, nightly wind chills of -10 to -20 are possible.

The coldest in terms of ambient air temperatures looks to be Wednesday morning. Surface high pressure, clear skies, relatively light wind and a deep snowpack will create optimal radiative cooling conditions. Lows between -10 to -15 degrees are possible, especially in rural areas. Another strong surface high arrives later in the weekend which may allow for another period of very cold ambient air temperatures.

A potent upper trough looks to drop southward out of Canada this week into the early weekend. This may allow for a period of scattered flurries or snow showers at times Wednesday through Friday. Significant amounts are not expected, as these snow showers appear light and scattered in nature.

Day 8-14: peeking beyond the Long Range we see good ensemble agreement on a continuation of our current pattern. Additionally, the global teleconnections above remain in their current phase through early February with good ensemble agreement as well. The combination of negative AO and positive PNA favors troughing over the eastern US. As such, below-normal temperatures likely continue into early February.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1238 PM EST Mon Jan 26 2026

Impacts:

- Brief period of LLWS tonight 06z-11z - SW gusts up to 20-30 kt late tonight through tomorrow morning - MVFR ceilings on Tuesday - Blowing snow at times this morning and tonight

Discussion:

Skies have cleared with surface high pressure passing just to our south. Upstream, a fast-moving but weak storm system will pass to our north overnight. In response, winds increase out of the SW tonight leading to LLWS between 06z-11z and then gusty surface winds afterward. Wind gusts between 20-30kt are likely Tuesday morning. Patchy blowing snow is possible at times tonight into Tuesday.

Clouds increase again ahead of the approaching system after about 00z this evening. Mid/high-level clouds arrive first followed by low stratus towards morning Tuesday. A period of MVFR ceilings is expected before a clearing trend begins late Tuesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Cold Weather Advisory from 9 AM to noon EST Tuesday for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Extreme Cold Warning from 7 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.