textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and mostly cloudy today. Minimal Light snow accumulations possible through the afternoon, mainly northeast of a Kokomo- Anderson-Rushville line

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph possible today

- Next round of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday with light snow accumulation possible in northern portions of the area

- Warmer late week with anther cold front expected by this weekend

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a deep area of low pressure east of MD and Delaware. Strong high pressure was found over the plains states, stretching from the Dakotas to OK and eastern TX. This was resulting in cold northwesterly flow across Indiana. The deep low was providing broad cyclonic flow across much of the eastern half of the country. GOES19 shows continued wrap around clouds across the Great Lakes spilling across Indiana, with some lake enhancement noted in radar echos over north Central Indiana streaming toward Indiana. Radar shows snow showers mainly contained to areas east of I-65, while satellite shows some clearing along the IL/IN state line. The true back edge of the cloud shield appears to be over western Illinois.

Today...

Strong ridging is expected to continue to build over the plains states while the deep low off the east coast also continues to strengthen but moves northeast. This will allow for continued northwest flow across the upper midwest, spilling into the Indiana, providing subsidence. This subsidence within the mid and upper levels will be present, but the lower levels will remain cyclonic and saturated due to the deep east coast low. Forecast soundings today show saturation persisting today within the lower levels. A few breaks will be possible late this morning based upon satellite trends, however stratocu development is suggested again due to heating and mixing. Stratocu will be trapped beneath a sharp inversion aloft. Thus a mostly cloudy day will be expected. Given the clouds and favorable lower level lapse rates a few flurries cannot be ruled out, particularly across northeastern parts of Central Indiana where lake enhancement will be in play. At those locations, continued thin and small accumulations could result in slippery surfaces. The core of cold air will remain over Indiana today. 850mb temps look to remain around -13C, thus will trend highs toward the upper 20s to near 30.

Tonight...

Models show the upper level ridging over the plains building across Central Indiana, providing continued subsidence. Meanwhile within the lower levels, the lower level flow becomes anti-cyclonic as the low exits and eastward and the plains surface high arrives across Indiana. Forecast soundings overnight show dry lower and mid levels, but do hint at saturation aloft as some ridge riding cirrus may be present. As the ridge arrives tonight, warm air advection will return leading to 850mb temps returning to -6C by 12Z Tuesday. Lows should fall to around 20.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 237 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tuesday Through Thursday.

The focus for the mid-week period remains on a robust shortwave currently forecast to move out of the Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Tuesday will serve as a transitional day as the cold, cyclonic flow of the early week gives way to increasing mid and high level cloud coverage. High pressure sliding to the east will allow for a return of southerly flow, with high temperatures rebounding into the low 40s. Recent deterministic model runs indicates a deepening surface low over the Upper Mississippi Valley on Tuesday with at least some lift, though precipitation chances for central Indiana will remain suppressed until late Wednesday as the cold front associated with the aforementioned system nears.

Precipitation is expected to overspread the region Wednesday night into Thursday. The primary forecast challenge involves a complex vertical temperature profile as warm air advection initially pushes temperatures into the mid 40s before CAA surges in behind the front. Model soundings suggest a high probability of a rain-to- snow transition with the main questions being the timing and southern extent of the transition. In northern portions of the area, where the cold air arrives sooner, light snow accumulations are possible. An alternate scenario to consider is a slightly slower frontal passage, which would keep the region in the warm sector longer, favoring liquid rain and limiting any potential for accumulation to just the far northern tier of counties. Given current ensemble QPF spread, any snow amounts look to remain light, likely under an inch, but travel impacts may arise during the Thursday morning commute where the transition is most efficient.

Friday Through Sunday.

Following the departure of the mid-week system, a significant pattern shift toward a more zonal flow regime is anticipated. Friday will see a return to drier and milder conditions as a transitory ridge builds across the region, with skies clearing and highs reaching into the low to mid 50s. This warmup is a direct result of the ridge axis shifting toward the Atlantic coast, which opens the Gulf for a more persistent moisture tap.

Confidence decreases for the weekend as ensemble guidance displays a wide range of outcomes regarding the next disturbance. One scenario involves a fast-moving clipper in the northern stream that would bring a quick shot of light rain or snow Saturday night followed by a cooldown. However, a more likely scenario involves a much warmer solution where a deepening trough over the western U.S. which would pump unseasonably warm air into the Ohio Valley, potentially pushing highs into the 60s by Saturday afternoon. For now, have maintained low-end PoPs (20-40%) to account for this uncertainty, with a general trend toward a rain/snow mix on Sunday as cooler air begins to filter back in from the north.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 547 AM EST Mon Feb 23 2026

Impacts:

- Low VFR to high MVFR ceilings expected through much of today

- Light snow showers or flurries, mainly at LAF and IND through 15Z

- Northwesterly wind gusts to 25kts at times through 23Z.

Discussion:

Periodic light snow showers and flurries will continue to impact the TAF sites through at least 15Z and potentially as late as 18Z with no vsby restrictions expected. Cigs will bounce between high MVFR and low VFR through much of the day before becoming predominately VFR after 23Z. Northwesterly winds will continue to gust upwards of 25 to potentially 30kts at times through the day today with the most frequent gusts through the early afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.