textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Some light rain possible tonight into Friday, mainly north

- Cool temperatures are expected Friday through the weekend, with lows near freezing Saturday night and Sunday night

- Highs return to the 60s early next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 948 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Have updated forecast to reflect recent radar trends of greater leading edge sprinkles/light rain showers and additional activity moving in from central/northern IL associated with cold front. Changed wording from chance to coverage PoPs given the showery nature with ongoing activity and expected SE movement across areas generally north of I-70 in central Indiana. Drier air in the lower levels across areas south of I-70 will limit overall coverage and therefore have more isolated wording of showers or sprinkles for these areas late tonight with the cold frontal passage.

Other noticeable change was to bump up northerly wind gusts behind the cold front with gusts to 20 mph based on modest 2-3 mb pressure rises noted to the north. These conditions expected across many locations by sunrise Friday morning.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 202 PM EST Thu Nov 5 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Friday...

Clouds covered the northwest half or so of the forecast area this afternoon, with mostly clear skies southeast. Under clouds, readings were in the 50s, with 60s in sunshine.

As an upper trough and surface cold front approach the area, the clouds will gradually overspread all of central Indiana into this evening. Best forcing with this system will be north of central Indiana, closer to the heart of the upper system. Moisture isn't great, but the system may be able to squeeze out some light rain as it moves through.

Will generally cap PoPs at the chance category tonight, with the highest PoPs north.

On Friday, colder air flowing in from the northwest will generate some lake enhanced showers across northern Indiana. Some of these may sneak into the far northern forecast area, so will have some low PoPs there. Otherwise, cold advection should aid in keeping skies mostly cloudy.

Lows tonight will be in the 40s, with highs on Friday in the lower 50s thanks to cold advection and lack of significant sunshine.

Saturday onward...

Central Indiana will remain in northwest flow aloft, with upper systems moving well to the north or south of the area. Moisture will be kept south of the area, so any weak forcing that does move into the area will have nothing to work with. Will continue a dry forecast into mid-week next week.

Temperatures will start out cool in the 50s this weekend, but then moderate into the 60s for early next week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1250 AM EST Fri Nov 6 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional wind gusts between 17-21kt at all terminals through the early afternoon

- MVFR conds persist across all terminals through the early afternoon, with brief IFR vis/ceiling possible at KLAF through 09Z.

- A few light showers or patchy drizzle cannot be ruled out through 15Z, primarily near KLAF

Discussion:

A cold front will be pushing southward across the terminals later this morning bringing the potential for a few light showers or drizzle, primarily near LAF. MVFR ceilings are also expected to continue with brief IFR or worse conditions possible near LAF through 09Z. Behind the front, winds are expected to gust 15-18kt with the strongest being at KLAF. Shower activity will continue to stream southward from Lk. Michigan in the wake of the front, which may result in VCSH near LAF but confidence is low.

Ceilings are expected to improve to VFR by the early afternoon with gusty winds likely tapering off eventually during the afternoon as the cold front departs.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.