textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue into tonight

- Localized heavy rain and minor flooding being the primary threats

- Drier and increasingly warm conditions return late Sunday through the middle of next week as high pressure builds

- Heat indices near 100 degrees on Wednesday

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 252 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Rest of This Afternoon into Early Evening...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continued across central Indiana early this afternoon. Aloft, an upper trough and a few impulses were helping generate the convection, while a cold front was aiding forcing at the surface. Steering flow is weak, so the convection is slow moving. With plentiful moisture, efficient rainfall processes have lead to localized heavy rain and flooding.

While scattered convection will continue all areas this afternoon with the features mentioned above, focus should shift to the southern forecast area for the most coverage of convection. This is because the upper trough axis will move through this area while the surface front sags south.

Will have likely PoPs south into early evening with lower PoPs north. Heavy rain and flooding remain the primary threat with the convection. Cannot rule out a strong storm with gusty winds, but feel odds are low given the extensive cloud cover that persists.

With the spin from the upper trough/vort max and the moist atmosphere, wouldn't be surprised if a funnel cloud forms along a boundary, mainly south. These are not expected to touch the ground.

Late this evening through Sunday...

Chances for convection will continue to diminish overnight with the upper trough axis moving south of the area. Still cannot rule out a shower far south.

On Sunday, most areas will remain dry with the majority of the forcing south of the area. However, the upper trough will still be close enough for an isolated shower or storm to form in the far south. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 60s with highs Sunday in the lower to middle 80s.

Monday through Wednesday...

An upper high across the upper Mississippi Valley will build into the area into mid-week. Isolated convection may linger in the extreme southeast Monday before the high builds in. Otherwise, the high will keep central Indiana dry through Wednesday.

Temperatures will warm as the high builds in, with lower 90s likely most areas by Wednesday. Thanks in part to evapotranspiration, dewpoints will be in the lower 70s most areas by Tuesday afternoon and will continue to be so into Wednesday. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s to near 100 Wednesday afternoon.

Thursday and beyond...

Trends continue to show the high retrograding to the west some, allowing northwest flow to return to central Indiana. This looks to occur mainly Friday and Saturday. Upper energy riding around the high could bring some convection, and if the high retrogrades enough, a surface cold front may get close to the northeast forecast area.

Will go with some low PoPs as early as Thursday, but the higher chance category PoPs will be on Friday and Saturday. The highest PoPs will be east, farthest from the high.

Highs will still be around 90 on Thursday and Friday with heat indices in the middle and upper 90s. Saturday will have highs in the upper 80s.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 741 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms, except at KLAF, diminishing/ending by 02Z. Brief MVFR vis possible in the heavier showers.

- Gusty NE winds from 18-22 kts during Sunday afternoon.

Discussion:

Convection has been slow to diminish in the vicinity of KIND, KHUF the last 1-2 hrs. Expect activity to push south down to near KBMG before ending by 02Z. Have added VCTS for the next hour for KIND and KHUF to account for scattered TS nearby. Otherwise, VFR ceilings are expected through the period with generally light winds under 5 kts tonight. Expect broken mid-high cloud layers to keep any threat for lower vis/IFR conds at bay.

On Sunday winds will increase with gusts 18-22 kts from the NE as high pressure builds over the Great Lakes and Low pressure shifts slowly away from the region towards the TN valley. A few showers are possible at KBMG during the afternoon rotating around a broad upper low over KY, but confidence is too low to warrant any mention of PROB30.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.