textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool conditions through the weekend

- Dry weather expected over the next 7 days

- Progressively warmer next week with highs into the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Seasonably cool late autumn overnight currently taking shape across central Indiana with readings as of 900 PM EST in the 30s over all corners of the region amid northwest winds that have diminished to generally 10 mph or less. Fetch off of southern Lake Michigan to maintain ceilings east of the I-69 corridor...while mostly clear skies continue along and west of a Covington-Greencastle-Brownstown line. Expect slight westward trend of clouds pre-dawn that should overrun most of Indianapolis Metro by 12Z. Expect patchy ground fog later tonight west of the I-64 corridor where lows in the upper 20s will near dewpoints...although any impacts are expected to be localized. Minimums around the freezing mark in Marion County with lows in the upper 30s for most northeast zones.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 200 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a large area of high pressure in place through the Mississippi Valley. Cool northwest flow was in place across Indiana. GOES19 shows some lake cloud steaming from Lake MI, pushing south across north central Indiana. Aloft, a highly amplified pattern was in place. A sharp omega block was in place with ridging over the plains states, low pressure over the northeast and a deep trough in place over the Pacific northwest extending into the intermountain west. Dew points across the area were in the lower 30s.

Tonight...

The strong ridging aloft to the west will nudge slightly eastward. Indiana will continue to remain under the influence of lee side subsidence and NW flow aloft through the overnight hours. Meanwhile at the surface, the strong high pressure system will also nudge east, arriving over IL and WI. This will keep light NW flow across Indiana, but should result in clearing skies across our area as the lake clouds drifts farther to the northeast and heating is lost. Dew point depressions overnight may fall to less than 2F. This with clearing skies and light winds will be a good set-up for radiational cooling and fog. Look for overnight lows around 30.

Sunday and Monday...

The strong ridging aloft will build east across Indiana on Sunday and Monday. Furthermore, a secondary ridge aloft is suggested to develop within the pattern over the Central Plains on Monday, reinforcing subsidence across the area. Meanwhile within the lower levels, the strong surface high pressure system to west will build eastward, settling over Indiana and Ohio on Monday. This will bring more dry and cool weather to our area for this time. Forecast soundings on Sunday suggest that convective temperatures may be reached producing some flat topped stratocu, but more sunshine is indicated on Monday with a dry column in play. Thus a partly cloudy Sunday and mostly sunny Monday will be in store. Slight warm air advection is indicated for Sunday and Monday. Thus highs around 50 on Sunday should warm to the lower 50s for Monday. These values are at or below seasonal normals.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Surface high pressure positioned over the central CONUS will slowly settle into the region through the week. Deep subsidence and increasing heights from the subsequent surface high will keep skies mostly clear through late Wednesday. During the day Wednesday, a subtle shortwave trough will start to take shape over the Great Plains. A subsequent surface low pressure system is expected to form over the Nebraska/South Dakota vicinity with a cold front extending south towards the MO River Valley. While the subsequent surface low will remain well north of central Indiana, subtle isentropic ascent will promote the development of SCT to BKN mid to high level clouds through the rest of the forecast period. While rain chances look to hold off until Sunday morning at the earliest, models indicate a 10- 20% chance an isolated shower or two occurring Thursday through Saturday morning. However, confidence is too low at this time to include any mention in the forecast.

10-20 kts of southerly WAA from the subsequent surface high pressure will usher in the transition from more seasonable high temperatures in the low to mid 50s Tuesday with low's in the mid 30s to temperatures 10-15 degrees above average by the end of the week. High's by then will approach the mid to upper 60s with lows in the upper 40s.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1122 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Impacts:

- Brief periods of MVFR ceilings at KIND through Sunday morning - Patchy fog at KBMG and KHUF near daybreak Sunday

Discussion:

Stratus is again pivoting back south late this evening and will encompass both KIND and KLAF by 06Z and to KBMG closer to daybreak Sunday. Ceilings have generally been hovering between 3000 and 3500ft with more expansive MVFR decks located over northeast and eastern Indiana. May briefly see ceilings dip to MVFR at KIND through Sunday morning otherwise expect cloud bases at around 3500ft. With mainly clear skies at KBMG and KHUF in the predawn hours...patchy fog will be a possibility.

Stratus will mix out from the west late Sunday afternoon with skies clearing. Enough lingering low level moisture may keep scattered MVFR ceilings near KIND Sunday night otherwise VFR conditions are expected. N/NW winds today will veer to light northeast Sunday night.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.