textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday, with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1015 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

A very similar night to last night is in store, with excellent radiational cooling conditions expected. Winds are actually a bit lighter than last night, and so temperatures have been colder compared to 24 hours prior. Some rural locations have reported temperatures as low as -6 degrees as of 10pm. Urban areas remain between 5 to 10 above, though they too have been slowly dropping.

We've lowered low temperatures to about -10 degrees in the areas outside of the Indy metro. Pockets of -10 to -15 are likely, with an isolated -20 reading not out of the question.

Some warmer locations include our far southwest where mid-level cloud cover and flurries are present. Vincennes remains at 21 degrees for instance. Gradual clearing is expected here, though not complete clearing. Lows in the single digits to near 0 are still anticipated. Mid/high-level cloud cover begins increasing again for all areas around dawn.

Despite the very cold ambient air temperatures, light and variable winds will limit how low wind chills get. Currently, there likely won't be enough wind to lead to -20 or lower wind chills (or at least widespread values this low). Thus, the Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through Thursday morning.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 232 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Dry conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. Mostly sunny skies and warm air advection has helped warm temperatures well into the teens this afternoon. Current surface analysis depicts the aforementioned high pressure centered near the south-central CONUS with a weak low pressure system over the northern Great Lakes region. The slight pressure gradient between these systems and shallow diurnal mixing has promoted breezy conditions.

Expect winds to quickly diminish during the evening hours in typical diurnal fashion. Some passing clouds are possible at times overnight, but much of the area should remain mostly clear to partly cloudy. This setup supports the potential for temperatures to drop quickly overnight. Look for lows to range from a few degrees above zero to as low as -10F in spots. Even lower temperatures cannot be ruled out in any sheltered areas where winds could become calm.

A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from 1 to 10am EST Thursday for roughly the northern half of central IN. Very cold wind chills as low as 10 to 19 degrees below zero are possible in the advisory. Patchy freezing fog may also develop late tonight, mainly near SE portions of central IN, where winds are likely to become very light over a deep snowpack.

Any freezing fog that develops will mix out Thursday morning as temperatures warm up. A subtle mid-upper level wave moving through the central CONUS should promote increasing clouds through the day. This combined with weak northerly flow is expected to keep highs in the teens to low 20s once again. Depending on cloud coverage, highs may struggle to actually reach the low 20s across south-central IN.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 232 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Cold weather will continue on Thursday Night through the weekend. Slight warming arriving by Wednesday.

Models continue to suggest strong ridging in place aloft over the western United States through this period with a deep and broad trough in place east of the Rockies over the CONUS. This will result in a continued cold, Canadian flow spilling into the Ohio Valley from the north. A trough within this flow over the Great Lakes will push south across Indiana on late Friday night into Saturday. Ample forcing appears available for this feature, but moisture is a problem. Gulf moisture remains blocked and the arctic air mass remains in place across our region. Forecast soundings are suggesting some saturation within the lower levels of the column on Saturday morning, but deep saturation fails to develop and subsidence is seen within the column after 18Z. Lower levels also appear quite unfavorable with anti-cyclonic flow in place as strong high pressure will be settling across the southern plains and cold north flow will remain in place. A few light snow showers or flurries cannot be ruled out early on Saturday morning.

In the wake of this upper trough, another surge of very cold air is expected to arrive across Central Indiana as 850MB temps fall to near -20c. This will mark the arrival of more very cold and very dry air through the weekend. More cold weather advisories will be expected with single digit or lower low temperatures.

As the new work week starts, the highly amplified pattern is expected to begin to break down, becoming somewhat more zonal. This will allow for the start of of some milder, Pacific flow to begin to arrive by the middle of the week. the arctic surface high will drift farther southeast to the Gulf coast, allowing more southerly flow to arrive across the Ohio Valley in the lower levels, slowly moderating temperatures. Highs on Wednesday may finally reach above 32. However, by Wednesday, another upper wave appears to be advancing from the upper midwest, bring a return for precipitation chances, as the upper pattern hints at returning to strong ridging in the western CONUS and cold air once again spilling into the Ohio valley next weekend.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 623 PM EST Wed Jan 28 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy freezing fog possible tonight, mainly near BMG, but confidence is low at this time

Discussion:

High pressure will promote VFR conditions through the TAF period. However, there is a chance for some patchy freezing fog to develop late tonight as temperatures quickly fall under mostly clear skies and light winds. Confidence is low in this potential, but BMG appears to be the more favored area for development if it occurs.

Mid to high-level cloud cover may be present to some extent through the night from HUF to BMG southwestward. These clouds should expand northward to LAF and IND from 12z onward. Some low-level stratocumulus may drift in from the north late in the TAF period.

Winds are expected to become light and variable overnight with perhaps a predominant west-northwesterly component. Winds increase slightly, remaining under 10kt, becoming northwesterly on Thursday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Thursday for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-054>057.