textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog, locally dense, will continue overnight

- Dry weather tonight through much of Tuesday.

- Chances for showers and storms much of the week ahead. Best chances for dry weather on Friday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 944 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Skies will continue to clear across the remainder of central Indiana as high pressure builds south through the Great Lakes and Mid MS valley. North winds 5-10 mph will become light N-NE overnight. The combination of clear skies, recent rain/moist soil and light winds spell a recipe for fog overnight. Given the time of year and only 8- 8.5 hrs of darkness and modest winds presently, not expecting widespread fog conditions. So have added the word patchy to account for the expected areal coverage, favoring rural areas and low spots/river valleys where cross-over temps will be reached soonest (after 05Z). Otherwise rest of forecast is on track as precip has existed the CWA.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure over MO and western IL, building eastward. Aloft, an upper trough axis was found over WI and IL, pushing east toward Indiana. Radar shows two areas of rain showers along and ahead of this trough. The first was pushing across SE Central Indiana. The second area was found entering western Indiana and was linear in fashion, with daytime heating leading to some convection near this boundary.

Late this afternoon and tonight...

Models suggest the upper trough axis will continue to quickly move across Indiana, exiting the state near 00Z. The ongoing rain ahead of this trough will push across most areas, resulting in at least a brief period of showers or a TSRA through 00Z. Dry weather will arrive after 00Z in the wake of the upper trough as forcing is lost. Models show the upper flow has weak ridging available and strong subsidence arrives promptly after 00Z. Strong drying is seen within the forecast soundings. Thus a trend toward mostly clear skies is expected. With little change in the overall air mass, lows will be mainly in the mid 50s.

Monday and Monday Night...

Dry and warmer weather is expected for Memorial Day and Monday night. Models show the strong area of high pressure in place over the plains will be moving across our state though Monday, arriving over NY and PA by Monday night. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column with ongoing subsidence as a strong ridge axis builds within the upper levels. Convective temperatures appear unreachable as a mid level inversion will be present. Thus a mostly sunny sky and mostly clear night will be expected. A day of full sun should allow us to reach highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

The upper pattern suggests upper ridging in place over the upper midwest, with a NW tilt to western Canada. A weak upper trough over OK and AR will provide southerly gulf flow across Indiana. Models suggest some forcing dynamics within that flow will pass across Indiana on late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Thus chances for showers and storms will continue to be needed on those days.

Thursday and Friday...

Dry weather will be expected for now on Thursday and Friday. Strong high pressure will be over the Great Lakes along with strong ridging aloft on those days. This will lead to subsidence and dry weather along with above normal temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday...

Smaller rain chances will return next weekend. The upper ridging is expected to drift to the east while a warm front and and upper trough approaches the area on Saturday. This will bring rain chances to the area for the weekend. Although there is no signal for high confidence pops, enough ingredients remain where precipitation cannot be ruled out yet.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1259 AM EDT Mon May 25 2026

Impacts:

- IFR and worse conditions in fog likely at KBMG/KHUF and possible at KLAF through around 12Z. MVFR expected at KIND.

Discussion:

Mostly clear skies and light winds will allow fog to continue at KBMG/KHUF and develop at the other sites overnight. KIND will likely stay no lower than MVFR but IFR and worse are expected at KBMG/KHUF and are possible at KLAF. Visibility could vary significantly at times at all but KIND.

Fog will mix out not too long after 12Z. VFR conditions will then rule with winds around 10kt or less.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.