textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry through Saturday with most days at near to above normal temperatures under the influence of high pressure

- Fire weather conditions will require monitoring as several afternoons will likely feature minimum RH values well down into the 30s if not lower at times

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 912 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Clear skies this evening as high pressure reestablishes over the region. 01Z temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the mid 60s.

Quiet and cool night on tap with light northerly flow. Could see patchy shallow ground fog near daybreak focused in valleys and sheltered areas. Lows in the mid and upper 40s look reasonable.

Zone and grid updates out.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Quiet weather will continue for most of the next week, with the only chance for rain in the forecast coming Saturday night and next Sunday.

Northwest flow aloft will continue until next weekend. One cold front will exit the area by this evening. A shortwave will bring another cold front through on Wednesday, but this front won't have any moisture to work with as Gulf moisture will be confined to the far southern USA. Most of the cooler air with this front will be confined to areas north and east of central Indiana.

Temperatures will be a little cooler on Monday, with the coolest temperatures expected Monday night. High pressure providing clear skies, light winds, and a dry atmosphere will bring temperatures down into the upper 30s to lower 40s for most areas. Blended guidance looks too warm given ideal radiational cooling, so the aforementioned numbers are cooler than that guidance suggests. Some patchy frost is possible in favored cold areas.

Otherwise, the dry atmosphere and drying ground will allow for larger diurnal temperature swings. Readings will average above normal, with highs in the 70s to around 80 and lows generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s for Tuesday through Saturday.

These conditions will allow for afternoon minimum humidity in the 30 to 40 percent range, with some areas possible getting below 30 percent. This will bring an increase in fire concerns, but light winds will mitigate the threat.

Saturday night into next Sunday, an upper low moving into the area may bring some scattered showers. Temperatures will remain warm Sunday.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 619 PM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Impacts:

- Small chance of brief shallow ground fog near daybreak at KLAF

Discussion:

A broad area of high pressure will reestablish tonight in the wake of a cold frontal passage earlier this afternoon. The high will remain the primary feature through the forecast period with quiet weather. Cannot rule out a brief period with shallow ground fog impacting KLAF near daybreak Monday otherwise mostly clear skies are expected. Northerly winds tonight will transition to northeast on Monday at 5-10kts.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.