textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool and dry conditions continuing into Thursday morning, with a low chance for showers Thursday afternoon and night north

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Friday afternoon into Friday night

- Additional chances for showers and a storm or two late in the weekend and again mid week, with temperatures remaining near to below normal

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Guidance continues to indicate that the next week or so will be dominated by large scale cyclonic flow across much of the nation. This will produce a continued pattern of near to below normal temperatures and multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms.

Quiet, dry, and cool weather is expected tonight into Thursday morning under the influence of surface high pressure to the southeast. Will carry low chances for showers tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night across the northern portions of the area as a broad upper level impulse swings through the broader cyclonic flow, aided by large scale ascent on the poleward side of a curved jet streak. A significant lack of instability and dry low level air will limit intensity and amounts of any precip, as well as make thunder unlikely.

A slightly more substantial disturbance, accompanied by a weak surface reflection, will require higher rain chances Friday into Friday night, as well as an isolated thunder threat given the additional forcing for ascent, as well as deeper saturation. Minimal instability will prevent an appreciable severe threat, though hydrologic concerns will need to monitored given precipitation amounts on the order of 150 to 300 percent of normal in the past 7- 14 days, which has already produced minor flooding in many areas, and primed smaller watersheds to quick response to heavy downpours. Precipitable water values will be notable but not extreme - roughly 75th-80th percentile climatologically, which should keep the flood threat more localized.

A relatively quick approach of another boundary will force surface flow back to the southwest on Saturday, which, along with plentiful sunshine, will help to drive high temperatures into the low to mid 70s and may represent the most pleasant day of the next week.

The aforementioned boundary will push through the area Sunday, bringing another round of rain chances along with additional low chances for thunder. Precipitable water values will again be enhanced but unremarkable, though antecedent conditions will again require monitoring of the hydrologic situation. Minimal instability will again be present, however, limiting strength of any storms that do develop.

A brief break under the influence of an axis of surface high pressure can be expected early next week with temperatures again about 5-10 degrees below normal, with additional disturbances bringing low chances for showers as we move into mid week. Uncertainty increases as we get toward the end of the seven day period, as model discrepancies grow. There is some indication that a brief warmup may occur late in the period as shortwave ridging pushes eastward, but other guidance indicates a persistence of broader cyclonic flow into and beyond the end of the seven day period, which would keep temperatures suppressed. Longer range outlooks indicate more persistent warmth may wait until well into the week 2 if not the week 3-4 period.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- None anticipated

Discussion:

Broken VFR ceilings are expected much of the afternoon based around 6kft or so, with winds from 290-300 degrees around 8-9KT. Winds will relax a bit and become variable at a few sites tonight around 2-6KT with some clearing, though some thin mid and high cloud will likely persist into the night. This cloud cover and some light wind should prevent widespread fog, though a brief drop in visibility near sunrise at the outlying sites, particularly HUF/BMG where winds will be lightest and rainfall was on the heavier side in the past 36 hours, cannot be entirely ruled out.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.