textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered light rain showers today, possibly mixed with snow this morning

- Chilly temperatures through the weekend

- Dry weather returns this weekend through much of next week

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 248 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

A strong upper low will pivot across the eastern Great Lakes through early Saturday...maintaining scattered light precipitation and chilly temperatures today. As the upper trough moves away to the east this weekend...dry weather will return with temperatures gradually warming next week as broad ridging aloft and at the surface expands across the region.

Today through Saturday Night

Scattered light showers continue to drift south across parts of the forecast area early this morning. A north-south fetch of heavier showers was organizing off of Lake Michigan and extending south along the Illinois-Indiana border across the northwest part of the state. Brisk northwest winds persisted with 07Z temperatures in the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Central Indiana will remain under the influence of the deep upper level trough over the eastern part of the country today and at least to some degree on Saturday as well. Additional shortwaves will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low level clouds and periodic light precipitation today.

As mentioned above...a pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan has led to the development of a persistent north-south band of rain across northwest Indiana over the last few hours. As the boundary layer cools into the predawn hours...rain is expected to mix with or changeover to snow within a narrow band that should primarily confine itself to immediate downwind areas of Lake and potentially western Porter Counties. A mix of light rain and snow will extend further south and may be able to briefly make it into the northern Wabash Valley largely to the west of KLAF later this morning...aided by another shortwave axis dropping through the region. As low level temps modify slowly...the predominant precip type should transition back largely to rain into the early afternoon.

Model soundings do show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates through early afternoon...with slightly drier air filtering into the boundary layer by late day. Expect a healthy stratocu deck to linger across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of Interstate 65 through mid afternoon. The aforementioned north-south precipitation band will persist in the vicinity of the Illinois-Indiana border into this evening before decreasing flow within the boundary layer enables it to retreat northward. Will maintain at least a small chance for light rain or snow showers over the far northwest parts of the forecast area to account.

As a final shortwave swings south of the region during the second half of the evening...low level flow will back in tandem with drier air gradually advecting into the region overnight. This will result in a slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night progresses. Scattered to broken stratocu will redevelop on Saturday but should largely remain confined to the northeast half of the forecast area in closest proximity to the departing upper low. Low clouds will linger across northeast counties Saturday night with skies clearing elsewhere as a strong high pressure ridge expands into the area from the west.

Temps...nudged temperatures below the model blend for today as highs should range from the low to mid 40s from north to south. Saturday will only see marginal improvement as cold air aloft lingers on the western flank of the upper trough. Highs Saturday will range from the mid 40s northeast to near 50 in the lower Wabash Valley. Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s both tonight and Saturday night.

Sunday through Late Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes on Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist for much of next week. Scattered to broken stratocu is likely to linger across the northeast half of the forecast area on Sunday as the upper low slowly moves away. A broad high pressure ridge will then pivot into the Ohio Valley with a return to quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last for much of next week. Any potential for rain will likely hold off until next weekend at the earliest at this point. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of next week. Highs will rise steadily through the period with lower to mid 60s by late next week.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 530 AM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered light showers at times through the first part of this afternoon

- MVFR ceilings through this afternoon with brief periods of IFR this morning

Discussion:

A large upper level low will continue to pivot over the area during the forecast period with widespread low stratus...scattered light showers and chilly northwest winds expected. Widespread MVFR ceilings will persist into this afternoon with improvements late today into tonight. Some brief drops to IFR ceilings will continue this morning.

Northwest winds will be the rule through the period. Expect winds at 10 to 15kts for most of today...diminishing to light northwest tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.