textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Sub-zero wind chills east this morning

- Light snow is possible tonight and Sunday northeast with less than an inch of snow possible

- Light rain and snow may occur at times mid to late week next week

- Ice Jam development remains a concern next week

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

The old area of lower clouds continues to slowly move south across mainly the southwestern portion of central Indiana early this morning. Meanwhile, a growing band of lake effect clouds was moving south toward the forecast area from northern Indiana. Temperatures ranged from the mid-teens in the far east to around 30 southwest.

The lake effect band of clouds will be the main feature across the forecast area today. This will make skies partly to mostly cloudy across the north central part of the area, with partly cloudy skies most other areas. The band will meander a bit as the fetch off the lake does, but it should diminish this afternoon as surface high pressure moves across the area. Not expecting much if any snow from these clouds, with far northern areas the most likely to see some flurries if they occur.

The very cold airmass moving into the eastern USA will influence the eastern portion of central Indiana the most, with highs struggling to return to 20 degrees there. Elsewhere, highs in the lower to middle 20s will be common.

An upper level wave will move into the area tonight. This will provide some isentropic lift and frontogenetical forcing to portions of the forecast area. Best forcing looks to be across the northeastern area. However, snow will have to overcome a very dry near surface layer initially. Will go with some chance PoPs northeast. Any snow accumulation looks to be less than half an inch.

The lingering cold airmass will keep lows around 10 degrees east, with teens expected elsewhere.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 305 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Sunday through Tuesday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the extended as upper ridging builds into the region. There is a chance for light snow though across far east/northeastern counties Sunday morning due to a mid-upper level wave quickly moving through. Frontogenetical forcing associated with the system combined with marginal moisture supports the potential for light snow. Forecast soundings also depict a saturated DGZ and sufficient forcing. Snowfall accumulations up to half an inch or so appear possible at this time, but uncertainty remains in exact details. The main caveat is how much dry air will be in place ahead of the system and how long will it take for the low-mid level dry layer to saturate.

Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday due to colder air settling into the region earlier in the weekend and clouds limiting daytime heating. Look for highs generally in the mid 20s to low 30s and lows Sunday night ranging from the mid teens across the far east to 20s further west/southwest. Temperatures are then expected to warm up quickly into early next week with increasing warm air advection from upper ridging building in. The southwest half of central Indiana could warm into the 40s by Monday. Meanwhile, highs on Tuesday will range from the 40s across the northeast to well in the 50s further southwest.

Tuesday night through next Friday...

Expect a more active pattern to begin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a southern stream wave attempts to partially merge with the polar jet to the north. This will allow for gulf moisture to stream northward ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains. Look for increasing rain chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the system moves in, but exact details remain uncertain.

Most guidance keeps the low pressure system weak with only light QPF amounts across central Indiana. Latest guidance has trended the disturbance even further south leading to questions on how far north moisture advects and how much forcing is in place. Will continue to monitor trends closely as POPs may need to be lowered in future updates. Precipitation will likely be all rain as warm air advection helps keep temperatures above freezing.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards Wednesday and beyond due to diverging model solutions. Given the large spread in model solutions low POPs persist through the end of the work week with. Ensemble guidance does generally show decreasing heights aloft with broad upper troughing and multiple embedded shortwaves traversing the region. This supports an active pattern persisting and wintry precipitation could mix in mid-late week as decreasing heights aloft supports cooler temperatures.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but most guidance keeps rainfall amounts relatively light at this time. The potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 552 AM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Impacts:

- Low VFR ceilings into the afternoon for most sites - MVFR ceilings will be possible at times

Discussion:

A lake cloud band will impact most sites into this afternoon. Believe that low VFR will be dominant, but dips into MVFR will be possible. Winds will light and will vary some as high pressure moves across the area today.

Mid clouds will be around tonight. A band of snow should remain northeast of the sites overnight tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.