textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Saturday with highs in the 50s to low 60s

- Wintry mix possible Sunday Night through early Monday morning. Exact details remain uncertain at this point, but light snow accumulations are possible

- More active pattern and heavy rainfall potential increasing for mid-late next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Beautiful late winter afternoon in progress as strong southwesterly flow has brought a much warmer airmass into the Ohio Valley. 19Z temperatures had soared into the upper 50s and lower 60s over much of the area with readings near 65 in the lower Wabash Valley.

A relatively quiet short term is in store through Saturday as high pressure will be only briefly interrupted by a weak boundary passage tonight. Despite northerly then easterly flow behind the boundary late tonight into Saturday...mild conditions will continue.

The primary focus for the remainder of the afternoon will be on the wind gusts and the presence of a subtle elevation in fire weather concerns focused over the northern Wabash Valley. Peak gusts to this point have not been higher than 20 to 25mph but the approach of an axis of strengthening 925mb flow by late day combined with a mixing level peaking near 4kft may nudge periodic gusts up to 30mph or slightly higher prior to the development of the nocturnal inversion as the evening progresses. RH values are already in the 30-35% range in the northern Wabash Valley and may be able to drop as low as 25% prior to sunset. An overall moist ground over the region will serve as a mitigating factor to more substantial fire concerns over the next few hours...but the wind gusts and low RH values will need to be monitored until near sunset.

Periodic gusts remain a possibility into the evening but as mentioned above...the development of the nocturnal inversion will trend towards cutting off gusts and dropping winds back to 10-15mph until the frontal boundary passes through from northwest to southeast from mid evening through the first part of the overnight. The front has virtually no moisture to work with...so a brief but subtle increase in mid and high clouds along with a veering of the winds to W/NW in its wake are the only signifying features with the frontal passage.

High pressure reestablishes on Saturday with a slow but steady increase in mid and high clouds as weak low pressure tracks into the Missouri Valley by late day. Winds will eventually become easterly by midday with a warm front extending east from the low into southern Indiana by Saturday evening.

Temps...the airmass behind the front coming through tonight is not appreciably cooler. Lows will generally fall into the 30s tonight with warmest readings across the southeast half of the forecast area. The combination of increasing clouds over the northern half of central Indiana and predominantly easterly winds will keep temperatures Saturday slightly cooler than today although still above normal for late February. Highs will rise into the low and mid 50s north of I-70 with upper 50s and lower 60s to the south.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Saturday night through Monday...

A few systems are expected to move through the region late Saturday through early next week bringing the potential for precipitation. The first system will move through Saturday night with moisture advection and modest forcing promoting low POPs. QPF amounts are likely going to remain light as residual dry air will delay top-down saturation. Some light wintry precipitation cannot be completely ruled out, but latest high resolution models have trended warmer due to stronger warm air advection ahead of the subtle system. Rain should be the predominant precipitation type given these trends.

A second low-amplitude disturbance is expected to push into the region late Sunday into early Monday bringing a better chance for precipitation, but uncertainty remains in the forecast due to diverging model solutions. Guidance has generally trended further south with lower POPs and snowfall amounts with this system. Thermal profiles also suggest mainly snow or a rain/snow mix. Light snow accumulations still appear possible though if more southerly trends continue then some areas could end up only seeing a dusting at most.

Monday night through the rest of next week...

A pattern change appears increasingly likely early next week with above normal temperatures and precipitation expected through the week. Ensemble guidance shows quasi-zonal flow becoming more amplified with time as the week progresses. Deep troughing looks to develop out west, with ridging and strong high pressure over the eastern US. This allows the predominant flow pattern to become southwesterly over Indiana. Such a pattern favors warmer and wetter than average conditions. Global teleconnections support this, with both the North American Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) trending positive, along with the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) trending negative.

The signal for significant rainfall is becoming stronger for the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Both the GEFS and EPS show anomalous precipitable water values flowing into the region, with multiple systems emerging from the western trough. Ensemble mean QPF is high with values between 2 to 5 inches through next weekend supporting higher confidence in the pattern. Exact details on timing, evolution, and or location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain this far out. Look for rain chances to remain elevated throughout this period despite the uncertainties.

Should such a scenario play out then river flooding may develop late next week onward. Ensemble guidance has trended more bullish on river flooding developing. Long range guidance suggest minor river flooding is likely to develop by late next week, particularly along the Wabash and Lower White/East Fork White. The primary axis of heavy rain may still shift north or south, so stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 552 PM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Impacts:

- Winds diminish overnight and become northwest - Short period of LLWS this evening into the early overnight

Discussion:

A front will move through the sites later this evening into the overnight, shifting winds to the northwest. A few surface gusts may linger early in the period then they should end. However, stronger winds aloft will linger for a few hours later, creating low level wind shear.

Some few to scattered clouds around 6000ft may develop with the front. Otherwise, gradually increasing high then mid clouds will occur Saturday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.