textproduct: Indianapolis
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend
- Daytime lows will be near normal with above normal highs through the period.
- Very small chances of rain next Tuesday, better chances late next week.
DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 145 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Tonight through Sunday....
Mostly quiet weather will be the rule through the weekend as sensible weather over central Indiana is dominated by surface high pressure centered to the N through E, while upper level ridging builds in from the Plains states. Low dewpoints and longer nights will keep min temps near seasonal normals in the 40s. Clear skies will support strong radiational cooling at night. Despite the recent dry spell, this will lead to late night/early morning patchy ground fog in favored low lying areas. Any fog will be short lived as a quick rise of temperatures into upper 60s to mid 70s occurs for afternoon highs, some 5-10 degrees above normal.
Monday and Tuesday...
The remnant of the large upper level trough will move out of the western states into the Plains and MS valley. As this system progress eastward towards Indiana it will deamplify as it encounters the upper ridge centered over the SE states. As this system approaches, BL winds will become more southerly. However, a broad and dominant area of surface high pressure centered over the SE will severely limit any moisture return. As a result, recent model consensus has backed off on precip chances with this system. The next and much better chance for rain looks to be after the forecast period late next week with the arrival of a cold front.
AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 PM EDT Wed Oct 21 2026
Impacts:
- Mainly VFR conditions this period - MVFR visibility in FG possible at KBMG Thursday morning
Discussion:
Strong high pressure was stretching from the eastern Great Lakes, across Indiana to MO and Arkansas this evening. This high pressure system will continue to dominate our weather tonight and again on Thursday. Forecast soundings through Thursday show a dry column with no CU formation. Thus clear skies with light winds will be expected.
There is a non-zero chance for MVFR fog at LAF, HUF and BMG toward diurnal lows. This however seems too low confidence for a mention at this time.
IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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