textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Turning much colder today with scattered snow showers. Minor accumulations possible.

- Gusty winds up to 35 mph today with wind chills dropping into the teens and single digits by sunset.

- Light accumulating snow Thursday night into Friday, up to an inch or two possible.

- Additional light snow chances through the weekend.

- Well-below normal temperatures later this week into early next week with subzero wind chills at times.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 952 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures continue to slowly fall this morning behind an initial cold front, with gusty winds to around 30 mph as well. A few light rain showers were across the far southeast forecast area.

However, the main story is the area of snow and gusty winds currently moving south/southeast across northwest Indiana with a secondary push of colder air. Low visibility, wind gusts over 40 mph, and falling temperatures accompany the snow. Believe this will weaken some as it moves south, but the snow squall parameter still shows positive values into central Indiana this afternoon.

Have upped PoPs as necessary, especially northwest and west based on recent radar trends. Have intensified messaging of 40 mph winds, reduced visibility and slick areas on roads as the snow moves in late this morning into the afternoon. Will continue to monitor closely and message worse conditions if weakening doesn't occur as quickly as expected.

Temperatures will continue to fall today, especially when the secondary push of colder air moves through.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1055 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Band of moderate to heavy snow with strong wind gusts over 40 mph continues to push south across Northern Indiana/Illinois. This band is associated with intensifying low level Fgen as well as steep lapse rates in the 2-6 km layer (7-7.5 C/km). Recent lightning strikes in far NW Indiana support these steep lapse rates. The snow band movement has been S-SE about 30-35 kts, which carries it into the far NW part of the forecast area through 17Z and through the Indy Metro from 1730-1830Z.

Although some weakening of the snowfall intensity is expected to occur owing to southward displacement from Lake Michigan enhanced instability, the snowfall rates are expected to remain moderate to briefly heavy through much of central Indiana along and north of I- 70. Total accumulations are expected to be up to 1 inch in less than 2 hrs with this band. In addition to the rapid development of this snow, strong pressure rises (3-4 mb/2hr) associated with the low level frontogenetic circulation along with some convective downdrafts from the snow band will lead to wind gusts 30-35 mph with some locally higher gusts up to 40 mph.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Temperatures remain elevated as of 06z under thick mid-level cloud cover and persistent west-southwesterly winds. Temperatures around 50 degrees have been reported for much of the southern half of central Indiana. However, winds are beginning to become westerly as a cold front approaches from the north. Weak frontogenesis ahead of this boundary has lead to light rain from about Bloomington southward. This should diminish with time as the approaching front shifts the best large-scale forcing east.

Further north, low stratus is already beginning to enter central Indiana with Lafayette reporting overcast skies at 3000 feet agl. This is the first sign of strong cold air advection, and low clouds will spread southward through the morning hours. Despite how cold the advancing air mass is, the front itself is not sharp or well- defined. Observations upstream have shown a gradual transition from WSW to W to NNWerly winds. Very cold air is lagging a bit behind, with below-freezing temperature not expected to arrive until after sunrise. Despite the diurnal arrival of the cold air, it does not appear that it will matter much. Temperatures are expected to drop into the 20s through the afternoon hours today with gusty northwesterly winds. Winds may gust to 35mph at times, leading to wind chills in the teens and single digits by sunset. Expect low temperatures in the teens by Thursday morning with wind chills near zero.

Guidance shows weak instability within the approaching air mass as low-level lapse rates steepen with time. This instability, combined with broad cyclonic flow, should allow for the formation of numerous snow showers later this morning. These snow showers could mix with rain at times early, but a full change-over to snow is expected once the cold air fully sets in. The north-northwesterly wind component aligns perfectly with Lake Michigan, allowing for maximized fetch and lake-effect potential. While lake-effect snow totals will be naturally much higher immediately downwind of the lake, some enhanced totals may creep into portions of central Indiana. The instability and broad lift of the approaching air mass may allow the dominant lake-effect snow band to persist unusually far south this afternoon into tonight. The exact location of this band will be tricky to pin point since it may meander with time. Locally higher snowfall, up to an inch or two, may be possible should this band materialize and remain relatively stationary. Elsewhere, most locations may see a dusting of snow to a half of an inch.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 257 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

A pattern shift is expected in the long range with a trend towards colder than average temperatures. As mentioned in the short term discussion, strong ridge-building is occurring over the eastern Pacific. Ensemble guidance show this ridge becoming a dominant feature while evolving into a classic Rex Block. Ridging over the West Coast then reinforces troughing over the Midwest and Eastern US. The developing blocking pattern then locks it in for at least a week.

Global teleconnections support the developing pattern, with a positive Pacific North American Pattern (PNA) and an Arctic Oscillation (AO) quickly trending negative. A negative AO favors a highly amplified jet stream while the positive phase PNA favors ridging over the western US and troughing over the east. The combination of the two will help prolong deep troughing over the Midwest and eastern US. Troughing in turn promotes colder than average temperatures.

Scaling down a bit, guidance is in good agreement showing a series of vort maxes diving southeast within the broad northwesterly flow on the eastern flank of the Pacific ridge. Each likely has an attendant cold front with a reinforcing shot of cold air. Though potent, these systems lack moisture. The first wave, expected to arrive on Friday, will pass well to our north. A period of warm air advection ahead of this system looks to provide sufficient isentropic lift for light snowfall early Friday. Guidance is a bit mixed on how strong this warm advection is, but an inch or two of snow is not out of the question. Strong cold air advection and northwesterly flow resumes following Friday's system. Low-level instability and embedded vort maxes aloft should allow for numerous chances of light snow through the weekend.

Temperatures through the period, as alluded to above, look to be well-below normal...except Friday, with the brief period of warm air advection. Guidance is in good agreement showing sub-freezing highs from Saturday to the end of the period. Sunday looks to be the coldest day, with highs in the teens/low 20s and lows in the single digits. Wind chills likely dip below zero for a good chunk of the weekend into early next week.

Days 8-14...ensemble guidance is hinting at another pattern shift late next week where ridging shifts eastward and flattens somewhat. Such a pattern may allow for a trend towards warmer (but still below normal) temperatures and greater precipitation chances. An east-west oriented baroclinic zone may develop which will help determine the eventual storm track. Ensemble guidance tends to keep the AO strongly negative while allowing the PNA to trend negative as well, which adds weight to the potential pattern described above. However, ensemble guidance diverges considerably adding to forecast uncertainty. That said, take individual models runs / deterministic guidance with a grain of salt.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 630 AM EST Wed Jan 14 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings through the day and into tonight.

- Scattered snow showers arriving after 14z for all terminals, brief reductions in visibility possible.

- Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts possible through 00z.

Discussion:

A cold front will push across Indiana from the north this morning. Widespread snow showers are expected along and behind the front, which likely arrives between 14-16z. Rain may mix in initially, but should transition to snow as temperatures fall through the morning. Scattered snow showers and flurries may continue on and off through a majority of the afternoon Wednesday, and potentially into the evening. Brief reductions in visibility are likely in the heavier snow showers.

MVFR cigs are expected in the wake of the cold front as an upper trough and associated dynamics continue to push across Indiana. MVFR ceilings persist through the afternoon, with guidance showing some clearing around 00z onward. Extent of clearing is in question as some guidance hangs onto stratus through 06z-12z. Broad cyclonic flow favors stratus lingering longer than modeled.

Winds initially out of the west become northwesterly behind the front. Northwesterly wind gusts between 20-30 kts are possible at times through the day. Winds gusts should diminish some what after 00z, but wind speeds should remain elevated around 10kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.