textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and pleasant weather expected today through next week.

- Near-average temperatures, highs near 80, lows in 50s/60s.

- The next best chance for rain will be on Saturday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 946 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Only minor adjustments made to the forecast for the next 24 hours, mainly focusing on increasing clouds tonight into Monday morning and the threat for a few isolated showers.

Almost a carbon copy of yesterday's weather, high pressure over Ontario will be the main weather influence across Indiana today. Light ENE low level flow will keep a fairly dry airmass over the state for this time of year with dew points in the 40s this morning. GOES Simple Water Vapor RGB depicts a plume of moisture along the ridge axis overhead stretching from the SE CONUS, northwestward into Illinois and into the Northern Plains. A building ridge over the Central CONUS sharpens the ridge axis over the next 24 hours, placing Indiana briefly within a NW flow pattern. The moist airmass just south and west of Indiana shifts slightly eastward tomorrow, resulting in just enough moisture to support isolated showers as a shortwave dives southeast around the ridge and into the Lower Ohio Valley Monday morning. CAMs has been picking up on this threat for the past 24 hours. While the deepest moisture and forcing for ascent will likely remain over Illinois near the shortwave, there should be enough moisture to support an isolated shower threat across Central Indiana and southwestern portions of the state. The threat is fairly low and most locations should stay dry, but it is worth mentioning that Monday will have thicker cloud cover overhead with isolated showers around. Still expect a warm day with near normal temperatures in the mid to upper 70s.

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 231 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the eastern Great Lakes. This was providing a cool and dry easterly surface flow to central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed a highly elongated upper ridge over the Mississippi Valley stretching north into Manitoba and western Ontario. Lee side subsidence was found over OH and MI with this feature as water vapor showed some mid and high level moisture across Indiana and IL. The pressure gradient across the area was allowing for the occasional wind gust.

Today and Tonight...

Little change is expected in the weather today and tonight. The strong ridging in place aloft to the west of Indiana will remain anchored there, providing continued subsidence and surface high pressure over the eastern Great Lakes and into eastern Indiana. This will provide continued mild and dry easterly flow across the forecast area, resulting in mostly clear skies. High temperatures today should reach the upper 70s to near 80.

Monday through Thursday...

Models show the upper ridge remaining to the west of Indiana during this time. However a moderate trough within the flow around the ridge is expected to push from the Great Lakes across Indiana on Monday night into Tuesday. This feature will have little to no lower level moisture to work with as days of persistent dry easterly will allow dew points to only reach the upper 40s and lower 50s. Models suggest strong and dry surface high pressure continuing to build into our state with dry easterly winds. Forecast soundings do suggest the passage of some mid and high cloud with this upper trough, but dry air within the lower levels will be too much to overcome. Expect more dry and mild weather with some passing mid and high clouds on Monday afternoon into Monday night.

Wednesday through Friday Morning...

Dry and pleasant weather is expected to continue during this period as models continue to suggest the stubborn Omega block will remain in place over the region, providing non-changeable, stagnant weather. During this period, the ridge axis will be mainly over Indiana and the eastern Great Lakes with associated upper lows over the Carolinas and Saskatchewan. This will result in a large area of surface high pressure in place over Indiana stretching to the northeast through the period. Forecast soundings show a dry column through the Friday morning. All of this will lead to continue mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights. As the airmass slowly modifies, highs should reach the lower 80s.

Friday Afternoon and Saturday...

Models here hint at the first chances for a pattern change. The strong Omega block is shown to break down, as a flatter, more zonal flow begins to develop on Friday afternoon. Models suggest the arrival of some forcing dynamics arriving on Saturday afternoon, as surface frontal boundary begins to sag into the area from the northwest. Forecast soundings show limited CAPE available on both Friday and Saturday afternoons. Best chances for rain will be in place on Saturday as the lower levels appear a bit more favorable with a frontal boundary in the area. Very low confidence afternoon pops may be included on Friday afternoon due to the low chance of a stray instability shower or storm.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 614 AM EDT Sun May 31 2026

Impacts: None; VFR expected.

Discussion:

No impactful changes to the ongoing forecast. Strong high pressure northeast of Indiana will continue to provide dry lower level easterly flow across the TAF sites. High cloud caught up within the upper ridging to the west will continue to pass across the TAF sites providing high, sometimes thin cigs.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.