textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant early summer weather the next several days.

- Next chance for widespread rain will be late Saturday into Sunday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1001 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Little to no changes made for this morning's update. Fairly dry and benign weather persists across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley for early June as Canadian high pressure remains the dominant influence locally. Easterly low level flow is keeping the anomalously dry and slightly below normal airmass in place, preventing warmer Gulf moisture from streaming northward. IND ACARs soundings confirm dry air through the entire column with steep low level lapse rates under a subsidence inversion near 3 km agl. Once the surface inversion mixes out by late morning, strong solar heating and deep mixing will promote a quick rise in temperatures toward the upper 70s to low 80s this afternoon. In fact, dry air mixing down to the surface should bring dew points into the 30s and RH values into the 20s or lower for portions of Central and North Central Indiana. Will have to monitor wind and humidity levels as guidance may be underdoing wind gusts and not low enough for humidity values this afternoon as conditions near critical fire weather thresholds. Due to recent rains, not too concerned with fire weather issues, but this will be something to monitor the next few days as grounds and fuels dry out with this extended stretch of little to no rain.

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Issued at 227 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over Ontario, settling southward across the Great Lakes. This was providing dry easterly surface flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows the remains of Monday's mid and high cloud near the Ohio River as clear skies were building across Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows a strong ridge across the plains states, stretching north into western Ontario. Strong subsidence was shown across the Great Lakes within the lee side flow of this highly amplified ridge. This subsidence was building across Indiana.

Today through Thursday...

The upper level weather pattern through Thursday will be the transition of the strong ridge axis west of Indiana today, gradually passing through our area before reaching the Appalachians on Thursday. Strong subsidence under the ridge will be a continual component through Thursday, preventing cloud cover and also generating a very strong and large high pressure system that will build across Indiana today and tonight, before departing for the southeastern states on Thursday. Forecast soundings show a dry column through Thursday as the strong high moves through the area, leading to three days of mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights.

There will be little in the way of temperature advection until Thursday. Easterly surface flow today and Wednesday will result in daily highs at or just above persistence. A southerly and warmer return flow begins on Thursday. Highs in the middle 80s will arrive then.

Friday and Saturday...

Rain chances will begin to return to the area on Friday afternoon as the pattern of ridging aloft begins to flatten out and become a more zonal. This will allow the passage of a few waves of forcing within the upper flow. Stronger surface high pressure will be found over the southeastern states, and this will allow a warmer and more humid flow of gulf air to stream into Indiana. This allows forecast soundings to show favorable profiles for convection, particularly on Saturday afternoon and evening when some CAPE will be available. Thus will continue the use of higher pops on Saturday, but start introducing pop chances on Friday afternoon and night as the first forcing arrives within the flow aloft.

Sunday and Monday...

There is more uncertainty in the forecast for Sunday and Monday. Models suggest stronger ridging re-developing aloft on Sunday and Monday, however with the lower levels warmer southerly gulf flow will continue to stream in to the Ohio valley, providing higher dew points in the 60s. The development of a surface warm front is hinted at, lingering near Central Indiana on Sunday and Monday. Forecast soundings show a bit of different story, showing a strong intrusion of dry air aloft due to the strong ridging and subsidence aloft. Thus with mixed signals at this time confidence is low. Given the warm and humid air mass along with attainable convective temperatures, some small chance pops will be reasonable for now.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 600 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

No significant changes to the ongoing TAFs. Clear skies were found building across Indiana with high pressure arriving from the Great Lakes. GOES19 shows some convective high debris CI pushing into the Wabash valley.

The high will be the main weather player this forecast period, providing subsidence and easterly lower level flow. Forecast soundings remain very dry. Thus only a few high CI might be seen through the day.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.