textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- River and stream flooding continues across southern portions of Central Indiana

- Cooler mid week with a brief break from rain chances, before showers and storms return to the forecast late week into the holiday weekend, along with a return to warmer temperatures

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 236 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Cool and dreary conditions, despite a break from rainfall, are expected across the area today as cool east/northeasterly flow and subsidence aloft trap low level moisture and keep expansive stratus in place today into tonight.

The break from active weather will be relatively brief as the departed frontal boundary returns northward on Friday in response to the movement of upper troughing over the northern portion of the country, and subtle at least partially convectively driven shortwave disturbances within the tail end of this trough extending into the southern plains and mid-Mississippi valley.

With the best forcing displaced somewhat, and forecast profiles showing fairly substantial midlevel dry air early in the day on Friday, onset of rain may be delayed and coverage lessened, at least early on, from previous expectations, and will trend PoPs accordingly.

Late Friday afternoon into Friday night looks to be a washout, with another relative lull in rain chances from mid morning Saturday into early Sunday and perhaps longer. Latest guidance has also backed off coverage of rainfall Sunday, as the area receives only a glancing blow from upper level support swinging through the Great Lakes.

Modest precip chances will continue through the remainder of the forecast period as model inconsistencies and the fact that most events will rely in part on mesoscale disturbances difficult for longer range guidance to resolve and time limit the ability to narrow down these windows a bit better.

Temperatures over the holiday weekend into next week will trend steadily warmer, with widespread above normal readings likely to return by Memorial Day and continue into the week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1259 AM EDT Thu May 21 2026

Impacts:

- Periods of MVFR ceilings overnight into Thursday morning, with MVFR prevailing through the day at BMG

- ENE winds as much as 10-15KT with a few higher gusts possible

Discussion:

An inversion aloft north of a stalled front to our southeast is trapping low level moisture and promoting widespread stratus across the area. At least periods of MVFR ceilings are expected at all sites, with MVFR likely to prevail much of the period at BMG. All sites should see prevailing VFR by this evening if they have not already by that time.

Winds will generally be out of the east-northeast (050-080 degrees) as high as 10-15KT at times. LAF may see gusts to 20KT during the daytime hours, and other sites could see a few gusts but not enough to merit inclusion at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.