textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet conditions, slow moderation through above normal readings through Wednesday

- Scattered to widespread rain showers late Saturday to midday Sunday...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches for most locations

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Surface high pressure sits over Indiana this morning with mostly clear skies and light winds. This has lead to ideal radiative cooling conditions and temperatures have been running slightly below guidance as of 06z. Dew points are relatively high, however, and this has limited how much of a temperature drop we have seen so far. A few locations have cooled enough for some patchy fog to develop, though this remains isolated as of right now. Fog may expand somewhat through dawn though it should remain patchy in nature.

Heading into the afternoon, high pressure slowly slides eastward allowing winds to increase out of the south-southwest. Wind speeds around 10kt are likely, which will help promote boundary layer (PBL) mixing this afternoon. Abundant sunshine combined with significantly less snow pack should allow for efficient PBL mixing. Weight has been added to the HRRR which typically handles such mixing well. Modest warm air advection on the back side of the departing high brings 850mb temperatures to around 0 to 3 degrees C by peak mixing. Assuming mixing is maximized, this would lead to high temperatures in the low to mid 50s across much of the area.

Temperatures cool off quickly tonight as the PBL stabilizes and winds diminish. Mainly clear skies continue into the night allowing for another round of decent radiative cooling potential. We've leaned towards the cooler side of the current guidance suite because of this. However, with modest warm air advection ongoing aloft temperatures are likely to be warmer than the previous night. Nevertheless, sub-freezing lows are expected with pockets of low 20s possible in rural areas. High clouds begin increasing late in the night ahead of a system developing over the southern Plains.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 330 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Long term to oversee the remainder of the transition from mid-winter extended cold to at times unseasonably mild late-winter/early- spring, with a rainy 18-hours embedded within this weekend offset by an otherwise dry and increasingly mild period.

Quasi-stacked low pressure crossing the Deep South this weekend will yield scattered to widespread showers over central Indiana during the Saturday night to Sunday morning period, with perhaps moderate to briefly heavy rainfall rates late Saturday night. Recent model trends increasing expectations for rain coverage and rainfall amounts across the region...show greatest uptick for areas near and north of I-70 where mainly 0.10-0.50 inches of rain is expected. More modest upward trends for the region's southern half are maintaining widespread moderate rainfall, with totals to approach 1.00 inch along the Ohio Valley. High confidence in no thunder and very high certainty in rain-only p-type.

Slight upward trend in low chances of river flooding across southern Indiana, with any ice jams potentially complicating river levels the greatest concern, albeit with low confidence for any single location. Lighter breezes and partly cloudy skies will be the rule Monday as weak high pressure crosses Indiana between weather systems, with above normal heights/thicknesses promoting highs 55- 60F.

Upper 50s to prevail for most of the region through the majority of next week, with moderate confidence in Wednesday bringing 60s into the Midwest under flat but very broad subtropical upper ridge. Anomalously mild mid-week to be ushered in by stronger weather system passing well to our north...bringing southwesterly breezes gusting to 20-30 mph and resultant dewpoints around 50F. Moderate certainty in widely scattered rain showers through the final days of the long term courtesy of at times nearby frontal boundaries from the system crossing the Great Lakes. Lack of any plunging upper trough or Canadian surface high should maintain near to above normal temperatures through next week. The normal max/min temperatures at Indianapolis through the long term is 41/24.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1235 AM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Impacts:

- Low probability patchy fog this morning

Discussion:

Surface high pressure currently overhead will lead to light and variable winds through the morning hours. Additionally, clear skies prevail as broad subsidence takes hold. This may lead to some patchy fog this morning. Coverage looks low enough to preclude mention in the TAFs for now as a prevailing weather group.

Winds become south-southwesterly today as the high drifts eastward. Speeds increase to around 5-10kt, decreasing again after sunset.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.