textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 7AM to 11AM.

- Wind gusts of 35-45 mph expected this morning.

- Rain and isolated thunderstorms ending early this morning.

- Cloudy and mild on Friday

- Rain showers to snow showers Saturday night, colder Sunday...near to slightly above normal readings next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 911 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows a cold front pushing across Central Indiana. This was associated with a strong low pressure centered over the Great Lakes. The low was providing moderate cyclonic flow across Indiana with a moderate pressure gradient in place. This was resulting in wind gusts surging to 35 to 45 mph. Strong high pressure was found over the plains, building eastward. Radar showed the last bits of precipitation exiting the state. Aloft, water vapor showed southwest flow win place over Indiana and another upper low was found emerging over the TX and OK panhandles. Subsidence was shown in the wake of the front.

This afternoon, the deep low is expected to quickly progress to the northeast, allowing surface high pressure to arrive across the area from the plains. This will lead to diminishing winds this afternoon as the pressure gradient lessens across the area. GOES19 shows cloud cover within the cyclonic flow found upstream over IL and MO. Forecast soundings show lower level saturation present through the afternoon with an inversion aloft. Thus will expect a mostly cloudy sky this afternoon and temperatures falling into the 40s amid ongoing cold air advection. Wind Advisory will be allowed to expire at 1100 AM as winds are expected to lessen as the day progresses.

SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Saturday)

Issued at 650 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Surface low pressure around 990mb is passing just north of Chicago as of 07z. A strong southerly low-level jet, between 60-80kt (925mb- 850mb), has lead to rapid expansion of warm moist air northward. Much of central Indiana has warmed into the mid 60s through the night so far. Continued warm moist advection is anticipated until the low's surface cold front pushes eastward into Indiana around 10- 12z.

Scattered convection is ongoing ahead of the front, albeit with little lightning activity. Storms appear too shallow and updrafts too weak for lightning at the moment. ACARS soundings out of IND show generally moist adiabatic lapse rates through about 600mb, above which very dry air is noted. With large-scale forcing being displaced just to our north, little in the way of severe weather has been reported. This trend is expected to continue as forcing remains weak and warm moist advection becomes less effective with time. A stray severe wind gust cannot be ruled out, however, as very strong flow associated with the LLJ remains just above the surface. It would not take much to bring some of this momentum to the surface.

Outside of convection, synoptic wind gusts have been strong as well. Gusts between 35 to 45 mph have been common across the region tonight. Some locally higher gusts up to near 50 mph have been reported as well, though these have not been widespread. The marginally stable boundary layer has largely prevented such winds from being more of a problem. A second period of gusty winds looks probable immediately behind the cold front, especially further north closer to the departing low. Magnitude of wind gusts is tricky, with high-resolution guidance suggesting 35 to 45 mph gusts once again. Most guidance shows the MSLP gradient rapidly diminishing, however. This should limit the duration of strong winds to just a few hours this morning. By early to mid afternoon, most locations will see gustiness quickly decrease. We've issued a short duration Wind Advisory for our northern counties from 7am to 11am for wind gusts around 45 mph. A special Weather Statement for gusts between 35 and 45 mph has been issued for locations south of the Wind Advisory.

As mentioned above, temperatures have climbed into the mid 60s. These values are very likely the high for the day, and its all downhill once the front arrives. As such, our forecast will show highs in the 60s but keep in mind that is likely occurring very early or has already occurred. Most of the region will see temperatures dropping into the 40s today. By tonight, low temperatures in the mid to upper 30s are expected.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 312 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

A strengthening upper level low will dive into the upper Midwest Saturday and serve as the catalyst to reintroduce a more typical mid winter pattern for the region as it carves out a deep bu t progressive trough over much of the eastern part of the country for late this weekend. A quasi northwest flow regime aloft will briefly modify temperatures through midweek before an increasingly amplified pattern aloft highlighted by a ridge west and trough east by late next week.

There is potential for brief clearing of clouds Friday night as drier air passes through the Ohio Valley before thicker mid and high level cloudiness quickly expands back over the region in advance of a cold front. Signals hinting at the deepest moisture may split central Indiana with an area closer to the front and low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and a broad area with a secondary low tracking across the southeast U S. Highs Saturday will remain in the 40s with temps falling by late day as the cold front passes. This lack of more appreciable moisture will limit coverage and keep rainfall light on Saturday. Any lingering light showers will transition to light snow Saturday night and Sunday but again the lack of an overall deep moisture profile will limit precipitation to flurries or scattered light snow showers as the trailing upper low pivots across the region. It will be noticeably colder Sunday with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark and brisk W/NW winds holding largely in the teens.

High pressure will move from the central Plains to the Carolinas early next week as lower upper level heights retreat back north in the wake of the trough aloft shifting east. This will enable a quick recovery in daytime highs recovering into the mid and upper 40s on Tuesday. Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday as another front swings through with colder air returning in its wake. Could see light snow in the backwash of this system as well Wednesday night and Thursday. The bigger impact beyond Wednesday will be the potential establishment of a broader and more extended period of colder than normal conditions that is likely to last beyond the extended and into Week 2 as the aforementioned amplified upper level pattern develops across the country. There are hints as well in the 7 to 14 day period of one or more opportunities for more impactful winter weather.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 650 AM EST Fri Jan 9 2026

Impacts:

- Strong WSW wind gusts between 30-40kt this morning, diminishing after 16z.

- MVFR stratus develops this morning into tonight. Possible IFR.

- Precipitation arrives Saturday morning.

Discussion:

Low pressure north of Indiana has produced showers and thunderstorms which have exited into Ohio. A surface cold front is now entering Indiana from the west. This front will bring gusty WSW winds between 15-25kt with gusts 30-40kt. Winds are expected to diminish quite quickly today as the front moves eastward, becoming light out of the east by sunset.

Additionally, widespread MVFR stratus is moving eastward behind the front as well. Upstream observations show ceilings around 1500-2500 feet. Some model guidance suggests this could dip into IFR territory, though observations haven't shown this yet. We will maintain ceilings as low as 1500ft for now. The best chance of lower ceilings will be on Saturday as rain arrives from the southwest.

The rain is associated with a second system that is approaching from the southwest. Another wind shift back to west-southwesterly is expected as this system enters Indiana. Some gusts over 20kt are possible Saturday afternoon just past the end of the current TAF period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for INZ021-028>031- 035>042.