textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain spreads north across much of central Indiana today with continued below normal temperatures

- Rain chances continue through the holiday weekend into next week, but temperatures will become above normal for much of the period.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 250 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Today through Saturday...

The early morning hours will remain quiet. Later this morning, forcing from an approaching upper trough will increase. Initially, moisture will be limited in the lower levels thanks to easterly winds. This may limit rain coverage for a while. However, by late morning into early afternoon, the lower levels will become more favorable for rain.

Forcing will continue to increase with the upper trough and an approaching surface low, allowing rain to spread north this afternoon. By the end of the today period, the northwest 3/4 of the forecast area will have likely or higher category PoPs. The northwest quarter will have less forcing and moisture, so will keep PoPs in the chance category.

Rain will continue into the early overnight, especially east, as the surface low moves through the area. Coverage will then diminish from west to east tonight as the surface low continues to push east.

For Saturday, weak upper energy along with a lingering surface trough will keep some lower PoPs around, mainly east. Highest PoPs will generally be in the morning, with some decrease from west to east during the day.

With the low level jet pointed to the east of the area, the heaviest rain will fall east of central Indiana. However, portions of the southeast may see around an inch of rain.

There will be some weak instability which could lead to a few non- severe thunderstorms this afternoon into the early overnight.

Trimmed guidance's high temperatures today given expected cloud cover and rain, and nudged guidance temperatures down Saturday afternoon with lingering cloud cover.

Sunday and Memorial Day...

A larger upper trough along with a surface front will move into the area Sunday. This will bring a threat for showers and some thunderstorms, mainly Sunday afternoon when instability is maximized. There remains some uncertainty in the timing of the forcing and coverage of rain, so confidence in likely PoPs Sunday afternoon is medium at best.

With the front lingering not far south of the area and weak upper energy moving through Sunday night into Memorial Day, will keep some low PoPs around, especially south.

Temperatures during this period will depend on sky cover and rain coverage, but highs around 80 look reasonable for now.

Tuesday onward...

Uncertainty in how the upper pattern will develop leads to lower confidence in the forecast for this period, with generally a large upper low across the western USA and an upper ridge southeast. Will keep some PoPs around through the period, but again confidence in any one day's PoPs is low. Temperatures look to be above normal with some influence from the ridging to the east expected.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 551 AM EDT Fri May 22 2026

Impacts:

- Conditions deteriorate to IFR at most sites this afternoon - Showers spread north this afternoon - Wind gusts around 20kt at KLAF today

Discussion:

Moisture will continue to increase today, with gradually lowering ceilings. As low pressure approaches from the south this afternoon, showers will spread north across the sites. By 21Z, IFR ceilings and showers will be common. KLAF will take longer to reach IFR and will have the lowest chances for showers.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening, but coverage will be too low to mention in the TAFs. Low ceilings will persist into Saturday morning.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.