textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Partly Cloudy tonight with patchy fog possible.

- Partly Sunny and even warmer on Tuesday.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

- Wind gusts up to 35 mph Wednesday with record temperatures possible

- Strong to severe storms possible Thursday

SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a broad area of high pressure stretching from the middle Atlantic States across KY and TN to Louisiana. Light southerly flow was in place across central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed shallow but broad ridging in place across the plains with slight lee side NW flow spilling into Indiana and the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows high clouds streaming across Central Indiana, flowing from the ridge. The southerly winds and warm air advection have allowed temperatures to soar into the middle and upper 50s.

Tonight...

A mostly clear and quiet night is ahead. Models depict the broad ridging to the west to become a bit stronger over the plains states. This will continue to allow lee side subsidence aloft to spill across Central Indiana amid NW flow aloft. Warm air advection will remain in place as seen at 850mb and temps there will reach 6C overnight. Forecast soundings keep the lower levels very dry through the night, as surface high pressure to the southeast of Indiana continues to dominate our weather and provide a mild southerly flow of air to Central Indiana. Dew point depressions are not expected to be as as small as last night with ongoing warm air advection and high cloud aloft. Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out, but widespread dense fog does not appear likely at this time. Low temperatures in the upper 30s will be expected.

Tuesday...

Models show the strong ridging aloft pushing into and across Indiana and the Great Lakes on Tuesday. Meanwhile within the lower levels low pressure begins to strengthen and deepen over the northern plains, allowing for a warm front to develop, spanning IA to northern IN. This will place Central Indiana within the warm sector through the day on Tuesday, with warm southerly flow in place. Once again, forecast soundings show a solid mid level inversion that will prevent CU development. However, upper levels remain saturated, indicating high clouds aloft. Overall, partly sunny skies will be expected. Given our ongoing warm air advection, temperatures should get slightly warmer than today/s values and will trend 1-2 degrees above persistence.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 357 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Tuesday Night Through Wednesday.

An active pattern is expected to continue to dominate the forecast through the work-week, characterized by series of troughs over the western US and an unseasonably strong ridge centered over the Carolinas and Mid-Atlantic. This setup will help to maintain a steady fetch of sub-tropical moisture and anomalous warmth into central Indiana, with 850mb temperatures remaining 1 to 2 standard deviations above climatological means for mid-February.

Tuesday night through Wednesday will see a series of weak disturbances ejecting from the primary western trough. Low-level theta-e advection will ramp up significantly Tuesday night as a 45- 55 knot low-level jet LLJ develops. This will likely trigger widespread light rain showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms, particularly across the northern counties where isentropic lift will be maximized. By Wednesday, central Indiana should reside fully within the warm sector. Forecast soundings show a potent EML advecting in from the southwest, which will likely act as a formidable cap, suppressing widespread convection during the afternoon despite surface temperatures potentially climbing into the mid-60s to potentially near 70. The current forecasted low Tuesday night into Wednesday morning is 53F which would break the daily record warmest low of 46F back in 1981. The current forecasted high for Wednesday in Indianapolis is 68F while the daily record high is 66F. In addition to the warmth, the deep boundary layer and strengthening pressure gradients will allow for occasional gusts up to 35 mph.

Thursday Through Monday.

The main focus for the long term remains squarely on the Thursday and Thursday night timeframe as a more robust negatively tilted shortwave trough lifts toward the Great Lakes. Forecast uncertainty persists regarding the exact timing of the associated surface low and the subsequent frontal passage. GEFS and EPS ensemble members continue to show this spread in the track of the surface low, which will ultimately dictate the northern extent of the warm sector and the available surface-based instability.

From a kinematic standpoint, Thursday's environment is quite favorable for severe weather with 0-6 km bulk shear values of 60-80 knots combined with 0-1 km SRH exceeding 250 m2/s2. The primary limiting factor remains the thermodynamic profile. If the aforementioned EML remains intact through peak heating, convection may be delayed until the arrival of the primary cold front Thursday evening. However, if the cap weakens earlier, discrete cells would be possible in the warm sector. This matches a classic high- shear/low-CAPE environment, with damaging winds and a lower-end threat for tornadoes being the primary concerns. Moisture quality is high for February, with surface dewpoints progged to reach the lower 60s, though the relatively meager lapse rates could limit the overall magnitude of CAPE to under 1000 J/kg. While there remains some failure mechanisms for severe weather, confidence is increasing in at least some impactful storms.

Behind the front late Thursday night, surface flow will become more westerly as the low continues to track to the northeast into the Great Lakes with only a few lingering showers during the day on Friday. High pressure will then settle in for the weekend, quiet conditions but significantly cooler temperatures, with highs struggling to reach the 40s on Saturday. Another weak system may approach late Sunday into Monday with at least a low-end chance for precipitation but higher confidence in cooler than normal temperatures to start the work-week.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 617 PM EST Mon Feb 16 2026

Impacts:

- Chance of MVFR fog near daybreak Tuesday

Discussion:

Winds will be light again tonight but additional mid and high cloud is likely to keep widespread fog from forming. That said, the ground remains cool and moist and patchy MVFR fog is certainly possible. Will carry a TEMPO group at the outlying sites for 3SM BR BCFG.

Any fog will mix out in typical diurnal fashion Tuesday morning, with winds strengthening to around 10KT or so out of the south, and broken midlevel cloud expected.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.