textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly Cloudy and Colder today. A few snowflakes or flurries possible.

- Wind chills as low as -15 to -10 Sunday night and Monday night

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place across the Great Lakes, providing cyclonic flow across Indiana. A cold front rotating around the low was found near the Wabash, pushing east across Indiana. Stronger and colder high high pressure was found over the high plains states. Aloft, water vapor showed a deep upper low over Iowa, with a broad cyclonic flow in place stretching from the Dakotas through the southern plains and middle Mississippi valley to the eastern Great Lakes. Radar shows a few snow showers and flurries falling ahead of the cold front over Western Indiana, progressing to the east. Temperatures were mainly in the 30s, but upstream colder values in the 20 and teens were found across IA and western Illinois.

Today...

The cold front is expected to exit Central Indiana this morning, leading to ongoing cold air advection through the day. Aloft, the upper low and associated trough axis will sweep across Indiana, however given the cold air advection within the lower levels, subsidence remains more in play and drying is found within the lower levels of the column through the day. Forecast soundings show a much different column today, with plentiful dry air within the lower levels and a layer of saturation aloft trapped by an even higher inversion aloft. This should limit any snow shower development today, but a stray flurry or snowflake cannot be ruled out. Thus look for mostly cloudy skies today with those stray, non-impactful snowflakes along with steady or slowly falling temperatures. Expect temperatures to be in the 20s for much of the day. Meanwhile of note, the subsidence and drying will allow for dewpoints to fall to the single digits as the day progresses.

Tonight...

Quiet and cold weather will be expected tonight. The upper trough axis is expected to finally exit Indiana by 12Z Sunday, but overall subsidence will remain in place. Strong cold air advection will be in place as models suggest 850mb temps of -18C arriving across Central Indiana. The surface low over Ontario will begin to pull northeast to Quebec as high pressure over Texas allows for ridging to build across the plains and ohio valley. This will lead to continued drying within the column. Forecast soundings trend toward a mainly dry column but some lower level saturation does appear and lower clouds due to cooling and trapping within the lower levels. Look for low temperatures to fall to the teens.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 220 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Sunday Through Monday.

By Sunday the upper level low pressure system that has brought active weather to the Ohio Valley over the last couple of days will have exited with a brief return in southwesterly surface flow. With the cool antecedent airmass to the southwest, little WAA is expected with highs only climbing into the mid to upper 20s. The next shot of colder air arrives Sunday night as another upper level low dives southeast into the Great Lakes region with lows dropping into the single digits along with winds gusting to 20-30 mph. This will bring wind chills as low as -15 across north central Indiana towards Monday morning with wind chills closer to zero towards the Ohio River.

Westerly to northwesterly flow will continue into the day with the potential for a few flurries during the day with cyclonic flow aloft. Highs will only climb into the low to mid teens with another frigid night Monday night into Tuesday as lows potential drop close to zero. Lighter winds will help to limit the more extreme wind chills, but with winds of 5-10 mph, that will still bring wind chills to around -10.

Tuesday Through Friday.

Cyclonic flow is expected to persist into Tuesday which could bring additional flurries with weak vort maxes traveling across the strong upper level flow. A weak clipper system will dive southeast Wednesday with general model consensus in the better forcing further north into the Great Lakes region with only minimal chances for precipitation towards central Indiana. Temperatures will also be marginal for snow with low confidence on precipitation type if any does occur as far south as central Indiana. Forecast confidence quickly falls Thursday into the weekend with a wide range of model solutions on another Canadian low pressure system and how it may interact with a surge of Gulf moisture moving northward.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 557 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Impacts:

- Generally MVFR cigs, some VFR at times

- Westerly wind gusts to 25kts through 00Z

Discussion:

Cigs will generally remain MVFR through much of the TAF period with brief periods of VFR. Sporadic flurries will continue through the morning before becoming even more isolated towards the afternoon. No vsby restrictions or accumulations are expected at this time. Westerly winds will occasionally gust as high as 25kts through the afternoon, but generally will remain in the 15-20kt range. Any gusts should subside towards 23Z with winds in the 8-12kt range tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.