textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Winter Storm Warning through Monday morning

- High confidence in 6+ inches near I-70 and points south and up to around 12 across southern Indiana

- Cold Weather Advisory Sunday night into early next week; wind chills as low as 15 to 20 below at times

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

For greater detail about short term thoughts, see the Mesoscale Update portion of the discussion.

Snow continues across central Indiana this evening. Reports so far generally show up to around 1.5 inches of snow so far. Increased PoPs to near 100 percent and will continue them through the night.

Radar shows some bands of heavier snow across southern Illinois into southern Indiana, with some of these moving into far southern portions of the forecast area. This is in line with current thinking, with higher total expected south.

Winds have gusted to near 20mph. This is allowing for some localized blowing snow as well, but so far this hasn't had much impact on visibility. Roads will remain slick as cold temperatures are not letting treatments to work well.

Temperatures are cooler than previously expected, so lowered them earlier this evening as needed. Readings are remaining nearly steady in the snow, but readings might inch up a bit later tonight.

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 1053 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Light snow has been ongoing over the past few hours with broad mid- upper level forcing. Latest observations show the antecedent dry airmass from a strong Arctic high centered near Wisconsin has largely saturated as low ceilings and light snow are being reported across all of central IN. The dry air appears to be less of a limiting factor for snowfall amounts. That being said, lower amounts are still expected to the north due to weaker overall forcing.

Current KIND radar imagery depicts widespread light snow ongoing while a stronger band is developing across far south-central IN. This band coincides with strengthening mid-level frontogenetical forcing which will likely continue to spread northeastward during the overnight. Look for the heavier band to continue expanding northeastward over the next few hours. Higher snowfall rates are likely and surface observations depict lower visibilities around 1/2 to 1 mile across far south-central IN supporting this.

Locations north of the band are still seeing light snowfall which should continue for the next few hours, but the aforementioned higher snowfall rates should approach the I-70 corridor over the next few hours. While rates should increase, SLRs are expected to gradually decrease with time as thermal profiles warms with the increased lift and isothermal layer below the DGZ. This will likely limit the potential for heavy snowfall rates over an inch per hour, at least in the next few hours, until stronger frontogenetical forcing moves in late overnight.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Today Through Sunday.

Synoptic Overview. As of early this morning, surface high pressure remains entrenched across the Upper Midwest with a 1045mb surface high centered over far southern Wisconsin, which is helping to maintain a deep arctic air mass across the Ohio Valley. Synoptic-scale focus shifts to a positively tilted and increasingly elongated upper-level trough propped to lift from the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley tonight into tomorrow as the aforementioned high begins to break down. Unlike a classic winter closed low with an associated TROWAL, this stretched configuration will limit the potential for rapid cyclogenesis or the development of a robust warm conveyor belt this far north into the Ohio Valley. Instead, central Indiana will deal with a long-duration overrunning event where modest but persistent isentropic lift interacts with a saturated and deep DGZ.

Timing and Evolution.

Initial saturation of the mid levels will occur through the morning, though a lingering dry layer near the surface associated with the weakening Arctic high may delay the onset of accumulating snow. Current guidance suggests snow will begin to overspread the southwest counties shortly after noon, reaching the Indianapolis metro towards the mid afternoon but remaining light. Farther north, toward Lafayette and Kokomo, the onset may be delayed until the evening to potentially overnight due to more substantial dry air entrainment. The most intense forcing and highest snowfall rates are likely late Saturday night through Sunday morning. Models are picking up on a brief lull towards the late morning before another surge of forcing helps to bring another round of heavier snow towards the mid afternoon hours Sunday. Because the trough remains elongated, snow is expected to persist for over 24 hours, only gradually tapering to flurries from west to east Sunday evening as the system's axis shifts toward the Appalachians. Accumulating snow will end by around 7PM for most of central Indiana and by 10 PM in the east.

Snowfall Totals.

Forecast snowfall totals for the I-70 corridor, including the Indianapolis metro, generally fall within the 6 to 10 inch range, with higher amounts of 8 to 12 inches possible for areas south of a Terre Haute to Bloomington to Columbus line. While hourly rates will likely remain between 0.5 and 1.0 inch, the sheer longevity of the event will allow for these impressive totals. Compaction may help to limit the final totals, especially with a very fluffy snow. Thermal profiles are extremely favorable for high-efficiency snow, as model soundings show the most significant lift occurring directly within the DGZ. Consequently, SLRs are expected to average between 12:1 and 14:1 in the south and closer to 18:1 in the north where the colder air allows for more columns vs dendrites. Another concern going into the afternoon hours on Sunday will be northerly gusts of 20-25 mph which may cause drifting with the very powdery snow.

Forecast Caveats and Uncertainty.

The primary caveat to this forecast lies in the potential for dry air intruding into the northern periphery of the system and limiting the snowfall. If the surface high to the north remains more suppressed or if the upper-level trough undergoes further stretching, the northern gradient of the snow shield could sharpen which has been a general trend in some of the higher resolution models over the last 12 hours. This would result in lower totals for the Lafayette to Muncie corridor, possibly as low as 3-4 inches. Additionally, because the forcing is broad rather than concentrated, any subtle shift in the track of the weak surface low could shift the axis of heaviest accumulation 30 to 50 miles in either direction. There are less caveats to the south other than the aforementioned compacting limiting final totals.

Temperatures.

Bitterly cold temperatures will define the thermodynamic environment of this storm. Highs today and Sunday will struggle to reach the mid- teens, with overnight lows plummeting into the single digits or near zero. Wind chill values will remain dangerous through the morning hours with wind chills generally in the -20 to -10 range as of early this morning. They are expected to rise above -10 this afternoon and remain above -10 until Sunday night when additional Cold Weather headlines will likely be needed. Because surface temperatures are so far below freezing, chemical treatments like salt will have severely limited effectiveness.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 310 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Lingering snow from this weekend's system should come to an end during the initial hours of the long term period. Immediately behind the snow will be another surge of dangerously cold weather as a cold front moves through. Lows each night, from Sunday night through the end of the week, are expected to be near 0 degrees. Higher winds on Monday and Tuesday, with gusts of 15 to 25 mph, wind chills will likely plummet to -10F to -20F but could feel even colder at times. Additional cold weather headlines will likely be needed again for the start of the new work week. Winds appear to let up some the remainder of the week but minimum wind chills below 0 should persist. Daytime highs won't provide much relief either as highs in the teens and 20s are expected through the week. Continue to limit time outdoors and check on vulnerable neighbors.

Other than the initial lingering snow, passing surface highs will help to keep much of long term dry. An exception to the dry weather could come midweek as there is a chance of additional snow across central Indiana.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 603 PM EST Sat Jan 24 2026

Impacts:

- Snow continues through most of the period

- MVFR with occasional IFR visibility will become predominant IFR by overnight

- Mainly MVFR ceilings with potential for IFR at times

Discussion:

Snow will continue through most of the period. Snow may be heavy at times, mainly overnight into Sunday morning. Predominant MVFR conditions will become predominant IFR overnight with potentially lower visibilities in the heavier snow.

Northeast winds will become north Sunday afternoon. Gusts near 20kt are possible Sunday afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.