textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rain arrives overnight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late this week through early next week

DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 158 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Wednesday...

Warm and breezy conditions will continue for the rest of the afternoon ahead of an approaching system.

This evening will be quiet for most areas. Overnight into Wednesday morning, a good (around 50kt) 850mb jet will aid in transporting moisture into the area. Forcing from an upper wave rotating around an upper low will work with this moisture to produce widespread rain across central Indiana.

The wind field above the surface will be strong, but instability will be quite weak. Not expecting any severe weather, but some gusty showers or an isolated gusty storm will be possible.

After the main area of rain exits Monday, there looks to be enough forcing and moisture for a narrow line of convection to develop along a surface cold front as it moves through during the afternoon. Instability is quite poor, so not expecting any strong convection and likely not any thunder.

Rainfall amounts may reach around an inch in portions of the southeast, with less than a quarter of an inch expected northwest.

Lows tonight will only be in the lower 60s thanks to southerly flow ahead of the cold front. With the cold front moving through on Wednesday, highs will generally be in the upper 60s, with around 70 possible east if rain exits fast enough. Lows Wednesday night will be in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday looks quiet ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface cold front. The trough and cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf cut off. Will have some mainly slight chance PoPs on Friday, with the most coverage expected during the first half of the day.

Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s, but Friday will see mainly upper 50s for highs as cooler air moves in behind the front.

Saturday onward...

Northwest flow will continue Saturday into early next week. An upper low moving through southeast Canada will bring another cold front on Sunday. Similar to Friday though, moisture will be very limited with the Gulf cut off again. Will go with a dry forecast through the entire period.

The cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Highs in the middle 50s on Saturday will gradually moderate to the lower and middle 60s by Tuesday. Lows will be near freezing for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts near 30kt possible this afternoon, with gusts near 25kt possible tonight

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

- MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Wednesday

Discussion:

Current VFR ceilings around 5000FT will break up early but then return after 00Z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR after 06Z then will persist past 18Z Wednesday.

Strong winds will be aloft through tonight, but surface wind gusts will also be around. Highest gusts are expected this afternoon.

Widespread rain will move in mainly overnight and persist into Wednesday. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but odds are much too low to include in the TAFs.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.