textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday, with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Potential for very light snow along and south of the U.S. 50 corridor this evening into the overnight hours.

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1000 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Skies were mostly clear across the northern half of central Indiana this evening. This, combined with light winds and the snow cover has allowed temperatures to cool quickly. Lower clouds just to the north of the forecast area are taking their time moving south into the area, slower than previously anticipated.

Have lowered low temperatures across much of the northern half of the forecast area based on latest trends. May have to lower even more depending on how fast the cloud deck to the north moves in. Local weather stations show varying temperatures over short distances, so the forecast may not match low temperatures well at some locations tonight. That variability is hard to show in the scale that is forecasted.

With light winds, wind chills will be kept above Cold Advisory criteria. Actual air temperatures should also remain warmer than criteria.

Meanwhile, mid and high clouds continue across the southern forecast area. This has kept temperatures much warmer. These clouds will slowly exit to the south. For now, forecast low temperatures there look reasonable given this.

While radar has been showing some echoes in the far southern forecast area, the very dry low levels has been stopping anything from reaching the ground. Continued with no mentionable weather from this point on.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shortwave centered over the central plains will shift E-SE towards the lower MS valley tonight and into the TN valley and the Southern Appalachians on Friday. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave will rotate southward out of southern Canada into the Great Lakes/upper MS valley tonight into Friday. At the surface a large area of high pressure will continue to extend from southern Canada into the Southern Great Lakes, while a weak area of low pressure over the Southern Plains moves towards the southeast CONUS through Friday.

Despite some FGEN located in the dendritic growth zone expected to skirt far southern portions of central Indiana tonight associated with the MS valley shortwave trough, very dry air below 8kft will likely lead to nothing more than flurries. Have opted to keep a slim corridor along and south of U.S 50 with a slight chance of light snow, but QPF was removed from the fcst grids.

Copious mid-high cloud cover will gradually thin across northern portions of the forecast area later this evening, before filling back in later tonight in the region of upper divergence ahead of the next stronger shortwave moving south over the upper MS valley. Mid- high clouds look to stay across southern portions of central Indiana through the night. Meanwhile, veering of the 925-850 mb flow over northern indiana will slowly push lake effect low clouds into far northern zones. There will likely be enough clearing in northern portions of the forecast area to fall to their overnight mins before 06Z, before steady or slow rise afterwards with the increasing cloud cover. Generally light winds (5 mph or less) combined with higher min temps (+6 to -2 F) than we've seen the last 2 nights owing to the cloud cover, will support min wind chills staying above the -10F cold weather advisory criteria. However, widespread wind chills in the negative single digits will still be noteworthy enough that a SPS will be issued for tonight into mid-morning tomorrow.

As the stronger shortwave progresses southward into the Great Lakes, northerly flow will increase through the BL. Expecting increasing lake clouds to spread southward through the forecast area as a result. Forecast soundings show fairly strong CAA aloft as 850 temps fall to as low as -19C by 00Z Saturday. Steepening low level lapse rates combined with some lake enhancement moisture flux may support some very light snow showers. For now, have opted to add flurries into northern portions of central Indiana during the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Cold continues through the long term but relief, albeit quite relative, is finally in site with highs returning to the 20s next week. This weekend will provide one last blast of frigid air and the chance for flurries at times. Highs will be in the teens Friday and Saturday with lows near 0. A short wave passing through will produce just enough wind to potentially drop wind chills back into advisory criteria Friday night so one last headline may be needed. The wave could also bring chances for flurries periodically this weekend, but moisture will largely be lacking thanks to blocked Gulf moisture and nearby surface high pressure.

Going into the new week, the highly amplified trough is expected to finally break down, becoming more zonal and allowing for a warmer southerly flow at times. Parts of the area could even creep into the 30s around midweek with lows in the teens. Models remain in decent agreement of another trough passing through that could bring additional snow midweek, potentially accumulating snow. Beyond this system, the upper pattern hints at a cold airmass stretching back into the area.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1205 AM EST Fri Jan 30 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy light fog at KIND and KLAF near or just after daybreak - Potential for MVFR ceilings this afternoon

Discussion:

Mainly mid and high clouds will continue at times through the overnight. Stratus over northeast Indiana has been struggling to shift south into the region to this point and expect it to remain northeast of the terminals for most if not all of the night. Will need to monitor for patchy fog development through the predawn hours across northern portions of central Indiana. Short term model guidance continues to hint at more widespread fog but as has been mentioned...this is likely being overdone to some degree as dewpoints are running lower than modeled. Will continue to monitor.

Lower stratus will finally spread across the area during the afternoon. Ceilings will oscillate between low VFR and high MVFR through the evening as an upper low dives across the region. Some flurries may accompany these...but no visibility impacts are expected at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.