textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week

- Heat indices around 100 degrees on Wednesday

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 131 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Anomalous ridging across the northern Great Plains is expected to intensify as we head into the new week. Ensemble guidance shows standard height deviations to 3 sigma above the mean. This ridge, modeled to reach 600dm at times, should remain to our northwest. At the surface, high pressure likewise situated to our northwest will remain in place through about midweek.

Anomalous ridging would suggest a trend toward hot temperatures once again, but this time looks to be a bit different compared to the last heat wave. Namely, the surface high sitting just to our northwest. Instead of southwesterly flow at the surface we will have northeasterly flow much of the time through Wednesday. This will act to limit warm air and moisture advection. Nevertheless, a warming trend is still expected simply due to the proximity of the strong ridge.

An upper-level low sitting just to our south as of this writing (the system that brought all the rain yesterday). It will slide westward this week around the broad anticyclonic flow of the larger-scale ridge. This should have minimal impacts, due to continued northeasterly flow at the surface. However, a few showers and thunderstorms may be possible at times over far southern Indiana this week as it skirts by to our south. Whether these make it into our southern CWA remains to be seen, but the probability appears very low.

From Wednesday onward, high pressure at the surface begins to weaken and overall flow becomes light and variable. Models show moisture beginning to accumulate within the boundary layer, and a return to 70 degree dew points appears likely. Additionally, guidance shows the ridge break down a bit while shifting westward. Ensemble guidance is split regarding a backdoor cold front possibly arriving on Thursday as a result of the ridge shifting west. As such, high temperatures and dew points have a higher uncertainty around this time.

There is a signal for increased convective potential this weekend. Aloft, guidance shows northwesterly flow returning to the Great Lakes region. Guidance diverges even more by this point, with some deterministic models showing surface low pressure passing just to our north with numerous showers and thunderstorms. Others show a weaker low farther into Canada with minimal impacts. We will carry slight to chance PoPs for now to account for this uncertainty.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 531 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with northeasterly winds of 7-12kts after 16Z. There could be a few gusts up to 19kts, but this should remain infrequent enough to not warrant a mention in the TAF at this time. Skies will be mostly clear through the period with diurnally driven cu around 050 from 16Z to 00Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.