textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Low clouds and patchy drizzle expected at times through today

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue through mid week

- Rain chances return Tuesday night with a few rumbles of thunder possible

- Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 302 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler but still near to above normal temperatures are expected this week along with an active stretch through mid week.

A couple of weak upper level waves moving through the area today will continue to promote widespread low cloud cover and occasional patchy drizzle owing to weak forcing and shallow low level moisture remaining in place across the area. This will limit diurnal temperature range with lows this morning likely no cooler than the low to mid 50s, and highs this afternoon eking out a modest recovery into the low to mid 60s.

Some breaks in the cloud cover are expected later tonight into Tuesday, which, along with good low level mixing and strong warm advection ahead of a potent approaching mid week system will push temperatures to their warmest of the forecast period on Tuesday, with highs likely well back into the 70s. This reprieve will be brief, however, with a cold front poised to push steadily through the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing widespread showers and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder, with lingering precip likely to taper off late Wednesday. Forecast profiles continue to depict very strong deep layer shear but functionally zero upright instability, which will largely eliminate any sort of organized severe threat, although there is always the concern that a stronger shower could briefly mix down some stronger gusts to the surface as a 50-60KT low level jet traverses the area with the boundary. Outside of showers, synoptic winds will be fairly strong ahead of and immediately behind the boundary Tuesday into Tuesday night, with gusts of 35-40+ MPH possible.

Conditions will turn cooler again in the wake of the front, though will still be near seasonal normals, with highs toward the end of the period in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. A few periods will need at least slight chances for showers as models depict the large scale upper low slowing and pivoting over the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS late week into early next week, and likely another upper level disturbance pinwheeling around or being absorbed into the larger scale low, which may bring additional showers and perhaps reinforcing shots of cool air to the area.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 535 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR or worse conditions through today in low ceilings and drizzle

Discussion:

Low level moisture coupled with weak forcing from a departing upper level wave will likely produce areas of drizzle at times through at least midday Monday, which will produce widespread poor flying conditions, with IFR early giving way to MVFR at most sites later today. VFR appears set to return this evening. Visibility fluctuations are likely in both patchy fog and the aforementioned drizzle, with ceilings being the more consistent variable.

Winds will generally be between 140-170 degrees during the period around 8-10KT.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.