textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold through Monday, with light snow accumulations possible through early Monday, mainly east of a Kokomo-Indianapolis- Greensburg line.

- Windy through Monday with gusts to 30 mph possible.

- Next round of precipitation Wednesday night into Thursday with light snow accumulation possible in northern portions of the area.

- Warmer late week with anther cold front expected by next weekend.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Boundary layer mixing has allowed snowfall to become more convective in nature this afternoon. Radar appearance has transitioned to cellular and snow character is now dendritic in nature. This implies deeper lift into the dendritic growth zone, which makes sense give shallow convective processes taking hold. Therefore, shower activity likely continues through the afternoon until boundary layer stabilization occurs around sunset. Little to no additional accumulations are expected.

As mentioned, widespread snow shower activity diminishes this evening as near-surface instability is lost. Additionally, large- scale forcing from a vort max aloft will exit eastward as well. This does not mean light snowfall will not continue into the night, however. Broad cyclonic flow around a rapidly deepening cyclone on the east coast, cold air aloft from residual troughing, and moisture off of Lake Michigan should allow light snow to continue into the night. Since these conditions will only be met immediately downwind of Lake Michigan, our best snow chances are expected to concentrate across the northeastern half of our CWA.

High-resolution guidance is in good agreement showing this, and we've upped PoPs from NBM which has been too pessimistic today regarding snow chances. Some guidance, such as the HRRR, indicate the potential for a potent lake-effect snow band to make it into our northern counties. Should this occur, enhanced accumulations of an inch or two would not be out of the question. Overall, most locations across our northeast likely see a half of an inch or less through the night. Snow showers linger into the day Monday while gradually diminishing. Low stratus may persist well into the evening as northwesterly flow remains in place.

Aside from snow, breezy northwesterly winds are expected to continue through tonight into the day Monday. Winds likely remain above 10kt for the next 24 hours, with frequent gusts between 20-30kt. Gusts primarily occur during the afternoon as deeper boundary layer mixing allows greater periodic downward momentum transfer. Temperatures remain below freezing (highs in the 20s, lows in the teens) through the forecast period, with wind chills into the single digits at times.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 313 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Monday Night into Tuesday...

As boundary layer flow backs with approaching surface high pressure ridge axis, lake effect clouds will dissipate across eastern zones. Mostly clear skies will lead to low temperatures into the upper teens across most areas with winds around 5-10 kts, this will to wind chills around 10F.

A shortwave will move out of the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes on Tuesday, with an associated area of low pressure will deepening over the upper MS valley. As high pressure ridge axis shifts quickly away, the surface pressure gradient will intensify across central Indiana leading to breezy conditions (gusts over 25 mph) out of the SW. Although any precip chances will remain well north of central Indiana, increasing mid-high clouds will lead to mostly cloudy to cloudy skies by afternoon. This will have an effect on limiting stronger wind gusts as well as warmer temperatures.

Tuesday Night into Wednesday...

Passage of the shortwave to the north of central Indiana will help a weak cold front move through the area Tuesday night. Operational GFS is indicating light QPF, but appears to be the sole outlier, so will leave PoPs as is less than 10 percent. Near normal temperatures are expected Wednesday with lighter winds and mostly clear skies.

Wednesday Night into Thursday Night...

A stronger shortwave will move out of the plains into the Ohio Valley through the period. Medium range guidance remains in good agreement that an associated surface low will track from near central Indiana on Thursday. There is some indication that Ptype will be an issue in the northern zones with either a rain to snow transition or event a potential narrow zone of freezing rain/sleet. Given uncertainties in the track of the surface low and WAA this far out will just leave a rain/snow mix in the north and rain in the south. Precip should quickly end early Thursday night.

Friday into Sunday...

A quick rebound in temps is expected Friday as upper ridging builds eastward out of the plains in the wake of Thursday's shortwave trough. Highs are expected to warm to above normal into the 50s. A lot of uncertainty in the forecast lingers for next weekend. Model differences are huge when comparing the GFS and EC/GEM. GFS has a much stronger upper ridge building over northern Mexico with around 100-150m height differences from EC/GEM by Sunday. Both EC/GEM show a strong cold front moving through late Saturday into Sunday with 20F differences in highs as compared to the GFS for Sunday. NBM has more weight with colder EC/GEM solution and will side with that solution given the likely faster nature of these cold airmass.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1232 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR conditions expected through much of the period

- Light snow at times may bring brief visibility reductions

- NW winds between 10-20 kt sustained through the period, gusts between 25-30 kt at times during daylight hours

Discussion:

Persistent cyclonic flow combined with an upper-level disturbance will lead to snow showers or flurries this afternoon into tonight. Snowfall may lead to brief visibility reductions at times. Flurries may continue from LAF to IND into Monday morning.

MVFR stratus is expected to persist through the majority of the TAF period, with some potential breaks after 12z Monday.

Northwesterly winds are expected to remain above 10 kt through the TAF period, with gusts between 25 to 30 kt during peak diurnal mixing hours. Gusts die down during the overnight and return after sunrise Monday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.