textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy light rain possible this evening through 200 AM

- Snow possible Sunday night...transitioning to few rain showers AM Monday...impacts possible early Monday from thin coating of snow

- Moderation next week...with more active pattern and potential of heavy rainfall increasing into late week/next weekend

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 944 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Patchy light rain continues across mainly the southern third of the forecast area this evening, ahead of a surface cold front. Thanks to very dry air in the lowest layers of the atmosphere, most areas have only seen a trace of rain.

Cold air continues to rush in behind the front, with readings already down to around 30 degrees in the far northern forecast area. Winds have briefly gusted to near 30 mph in a few areas as the colder air rushes in. Adjusted hourly temperatures to reflect the quicker arrival of the colder air, and upped wind gusts as well.

Some weak forcing will keep the potential for light rain in the far southern forecast area until around 06Z. Adjusted current PoPs to reflect radar trends and continued low PoPs in the south until around 06Z. Looks like temperatures cold enough for snow won't arrive until the precipitation ends, so have only rain as the precipitation type.

Forecast low temperatures look reasonable so made no changes.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 300 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

The remainder of the weekend may well be central Indiana's last mainly dry period before an increasingly active/rainy early spring pattern prevails through at least early portions of March. Center of stronger mass of polar high pressure occupying the north-central CONUS will slide from southern Manitoba to the northern Great Lakes. Indiana will continue to catch the southern portions of this ridge under the belly of the corresponding zonal trough. Embedded clipper type disturbance tracking to our north with loan a touch of forcing to the region tonight...which will combine with a weak fetch of Gulf moisture overrunning the stalled frontal zone near the Ohio Valley... yielding scattered sprinkles and generally isolated rain showers mainly south of I-70 within the 600P to 200A period.

Steadier north-northeast breeze gusting up to 15-20 mph after midnight tonight will advect core of northern surface ridge southward into the CWA...with readings falling faster later in the overnight to upper 20s/low 30s by dawn. Lower stratus may also settle into several northern counties in the several hours surrounding dawn, although decks should be scattering out for most locations through Sunday AM. Cold advective flow to continue into Sunday afternoon, only allowing a slight rebound in temperatures to slightly below normal levels in the upper 30s to upper 40s. Brief ample sun should reach most zones in the midday/afternoon hours ahead of increasing cloudiness from the southwest that will be maintained most/all of the upcoming workweek.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 340 PM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

An increasing active pattern next week will begin with a good chance of light snow providing possible low travel impacts early Monday. A perhaps briefly potent wave crossing from the Ozarks to Kentucky/Ohio Valley should spread the northern/lighter side of its precipitation shield into the local region during the late Sunday evening to Monday morning period. Marginally cold conditions will favor all snow to start...with possibly brief mixed p-type around dawn Monday...before a trend to all R- by mid-/late morning Monday when precip will taper off from west to east. A thin coating of snow is most likely near and south of I-74 by 12Z Monday, with any untreated surfaces possibly being slick for a few hours before readings climb back above 32F by late morning.

Anomalously strong late winter cold over interior Canada will set-up a very strong and somewhat confluent zonal H500 pattern across southern Canada and into northeastern CONUS through much of next week. Corresponding areas of strong polar surface high pressure sliding east across Canada will guide weakly-driven short waves and associated low pressure centers slowly ENE over the central US/Great Lakes...placing Indiana within the warm, and increasingly moist, sectors. A precipitable water maximum axis is expected to increase from around 1.00 inch Tuesday to consistently near 1.50 inches into next weekend. Meanwhile warm/stationary frontal zones extending east out of various circulations, aligned near/slightly north of the region, will focus lift...providing periods of scattered to widespread rain showers. Rain will be most likely in the Tuesday...Wednesday night-Thursday... and next weekend time frames, with the greatest potential for heavy rain next weekend. Potential for marginal flooding will increase through the late week into next weekend, especially if rainfall potential for an additional 2.00 inches or greater is realized next weekend.

Corresponding unseasonable to anomalously mild/warm conditions should yield widespread 60s by Wednesday and possibly low 70s for much of the region by Friday. Springtime humidity will be noticeable through the mid to late week with dewpoints held in the mid to upper 50s for most areas. At least isolated thunderstorms will be on the table within the Tuesday night to Wednesday night and again late week/weekend timeframes. It is too early to determine if strong to severe storms will occur during either period, although some of the ingredients will likely be present...such as stronger shear/helicity Wednesday night into Thursday. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the forecast period is 47/29.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1216 AM EST Sun Mar 1 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated/scattered showers at KBMG through 08Z - MVFR ceilings and -SN/-RA arriving betweeen 03-06Z at KHUF, and between 05-09Z at KIND and KBMG

Discussion:

Isolated to scattered showers from relatively high based clouds will continue at KBMG through 08Z. Given the very dry air near the surface, VFR visibility and celings should continue within these. is expected with these.

After this passage. a BKN deck should remain around 6-9kft through the rest of the TAF period. An area of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out this afternoon at KHUF and KBMG late this morning thorough the afternoon, but confidence is low. Greater confidence in MVFR ceilings arriving after 03Z with MVFR vis within -RA/-SN. IP are also possible within this precipitation.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.