textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch in effect from 7PM this evening through 10AM EST Wednesday for the southern two-thirds of the forecast area

- Widespread rain accumulations between 1-3 inches expected through Wednesday morning with locally higher amounts

- Much warmer late week into the weekend with near record warmth Friday

- Daily rain chances with additional threats for rain and thunderstorms this weekend into next week will increase the risk for flooding across central Indiana

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Current KIND radar imagery depicts rain ongoing over portions of central Indiana. This is associated with a frontal boundary which has stalled across the area. Aloft, a shortwave trough centered near the Rockies continues to advect positive vorticity towards Indiana promoting large scale ascent. Favorable forcing from these features combined with Pacific and Gulf moisture advection within southwesterly mean atmospheric flow will continue to support widespread rainfall.

Heavy rainfall is possible at times given the anomalous moisture in place and the potential for training storms along the west to east oriented boundary. Some high-resolution guidance also suggest warm air advection could lead to weak elevated instability. This would support the potential for embedded convective elements and more efficient rainfall rates. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected with the potential for locally higher amounts. Most guidance including the HREF focuses the heaviest amounts from near Sullivan to Parke county and points east-southeastward.

A Flood Watch is in effect from 7PM this evening through 10AM EST Wednesday over roughly the southern two-thirds of the forecast area. Precipitation falling over a 12 hour duration and the ongoing drought in some areas may limit the flash flood threat. However, expected QPF amounts with high-res guidance suggesting the potential for locally higher amounts could still lead to flooding, especially along smaller creeks and streams.

Most high-resolution guidance suggest that convection shunts the stalled boundary further south Wednesday morning. If this occurs, a lull in precipitation or more limited coverage of rain would be expected during the day. There is some slight uncertainty in areas, but rain chances were lowered significantly from mid-morning to the early afternoon hours on Wednesday given trends. Additional refinements may be needed in future updates.

Rain chances quickly increase again late Wednesday ahead of another system lifting into the region. The aforementioned surface boundary will lift back north as a warm front aiding in low-level theta-e advection. Expect widespread showers and isolated to scattered storms late in the day. Diurnal temperatures swings will be limited by rain and clouds. Look for lows tonight to range from near 40F to 50F while highs Wednesday range from the mid 50s to mid 60s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 250 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Wednesday Night through Saturday...

Periods of rain from time to time will be expected from Wednesday Night through Sunday. Models show a continued, persistent warm front lingering across Central Indiana through Friday. An upper level weather disturbance looks arrive and pass on Wednesday Night into Thursday, providing forcing. A warm and moist air mass will be in place, with forecast soundings showing saturation within the lower levels and pwats over 1 inch. Thus confidence remains high for rain showers. Moist ground and continued periodic rainfall may lead to possible lowland flooding.

On Friday, morning rain still looks possible as the warm front surges northward toward the Great Lakes. This will place Central Indiana within the warm sector for what should be a very warm early March day within the warm sector. A dry and warm Friday afternoon is possible. More Rain chances will return on Saturday as a cold front approaches and crosses the state. Precise timing, morning or afternoon, of the cold front is a bit uncertain at this moment. Thunder will be possible within the warm sector ahead of the cold front.

Sunday and Monday...

Dry weather is still expected during this time with mild temperatures. Surface high pressure will be moving across the region with zonal flow in place aloft allowing no arctic air intrusions.

Tuesday...

Troughing aloft in the western CONUS will lead to SW flow aloft. This will lead to another mild day on Tuesday amid southerly surface flow within the warm sector. At the moment, some instability and sufficient moist appears available that an afternoon thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1234 PM EST Tue Mar 3 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly IFR or worse conditions throughout the period in fog, widespread rain, and low ceilings

- Brief improvements to MVFR conditions possible at times through today, mainly near LAF/BMG

Discussion:

Widespread IFR or worse conditions are expected throughout much of the period. BMG is the one site which has improved, but generally expecting MVFR conditions through much of today with IFR or worse conditions possible tonight. Brief improvements to low end MVFR could occur near LAF into this evening, but uncertainty remains.

Upper level disturbances moving along a stalled front will continue supporting widespread rainfall much of the period. Visibilities in rain will largely be MVFR with occasional drops to IFR in more intense showers, but widespread IFR or worse ceilings are expected to persist.

Winds will be light and variable today and will turn more east- northeasterly into tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM EST this evening through Wednesday morning for INZ044>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.