textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous light showers developing today with much cooler air

- Periodic light precipitation remains possible tonight and Friday. A few snowflakes possible as well late tonight through midday Friday

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow warming trend

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1028 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

No significant changed needed to the forecast this morning. Updated PoPs a bit to reflect current radar trends. Rain showers are currently making their way south through the Indy metro as of 10 am. Activity may increase in coverage this afternoon as meager sunshine steepens low-level lapse rates a bit. Showers will be convective in nature. While no thunder is anticipated, some embedded graupel cannot be ruled out due to mid-level cold air advection. Chances for mixed precipitation increase after sunset, especially north and west of the Indy metro.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 211 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

A strengthening upper level trough will expand across the eastern half of the country through the end of the week marking a drastic shift to a cooler and unsettled weather pattern. Chilly temperatures are expected with the chance for scattered light precipitation through Friday. As the upper trough moves away to the east over the weekend...dry weather will return with temperatures gradually warming through next week.

Today through Friday Night

Light rain lingers across northeast parts of central Indiana early this morning as low pressure tracks across southern Ohio. An initial surge of lower stratus in the immediate wake of the cold front was moving into the southeast half of the forecast area with breaks in the clouds further to the northwest. Northerly wind gusts were dropping off from speeds Tuesday evening with temps dropping quickly in the 40s as cold advection establishes.

The coldest air of the Fall settles over the region in the short term as an upper trough amplifies and then closes off an upper low that will drop into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night. Multiple waves will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low level clouds and periodic precipitation through Friday.

A few light showers are possible through late morning focused largely over the northeast half of the forecast area but subtle ridging aloft will briefly track through the area and largely limit precipitation through midday. This will also aid in delaying a broader stratocu deck from settling over the area until later today with the potential for at least some breaks in the clouds this morning across the southwest half of the forecast area.

The strongest of the short waves within the amplifying upper level trough will track across the region this afternoon. As it does so the wave will interact with strong cold advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered to numerous light rain showers peaking in coverage by mid to late afternoon and focused particularly across the northeast half of the forecast area. The resumption of gusty northwest winds along with increasing stratus will make for a raw chilly day across the area with highs remaining in the 40s.

Subtle ridging this evening will aid in decreasing shower coverage but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region Friday morning. This will maintain at least a broken stratus deck with the potential for renewed light precipitation that may linger into the day Friday. A more pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan Thursday night into early Friday supports the development of a more persistent north-south band of rain and snow across northwest Indiana that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Model soundings do show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates into Friday afternoon. This will maintain a healthy stratocu deck across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of Interstate 65. Subfreezing temps within the boundary layer also supports the potential for graupel to mix in at times as well. Low level thermals suggest 45 degrees is probably the upper bound for temperatures Friday afternoon.

Drier air will gradually advect into the region Friday night as upper level cyclonic flow relaxes resulting in a slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night progresses. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s over the entire forecast area.

Saturday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist for much of next week. A scattered to broken cu field will linger Saturday across the northeast half of the forecast area as the upper low moves away. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into the Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and lower 30s through the period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 526 AM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous showers developing at all but KHUF by this afternoon

- Gusty northwest winds mid morning continuing into this evening

- MVFR ceilings expected at KLAF/KIND for most of the day and at all terminals tonight

Discussion:

A few rain showers continue to track across the northeast half of central Indiana early this morning. As a much stronger wave aloft drops south from the Great Lakes...light showers will increase in coverage by the afternoon and evening across most of the area. MVFR stratocu will persist at KIND and KLAF for much of the day then spread to KBMG and KHUF tonight. Northwest wind gusts up to 25kts will resume later this morning and continue for the rest of the day before decreasing tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.