textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cloudy Skies Today with periodic light rain showers.

- Dry weather arrives Tonight through the start of the work week.

- Additional rain chances arrive late this week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1009 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Scattered showers are ongoing across central Indiana as moisture and broad cyclonic flow from a departing low pressure system remains. The disturbance will continue to slowly push southeast through the day allowing for coverage of showers to gradually diminish. Cloudy skies and scattered showers will help keep temperatures cooler today in the 70s. Slight adjustments were made to POPs and sky cover through the day.

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 251 AM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure centered over Central Indiana. Radar shows a few showers across the northwest parts of the forecast area, stretching from Tipton to near Terre Haute, spinning around the low. GOES shows abundant cloud cover in place across the forecast area due to the low. Water vapor imagery shows a deep trough in place over Indiana with strong ridging over the northern plains. Subsidence was filling into the low from the southwest, wrapping across KY and into SW OH.

Today...

Models continue to keep the upper low lingering across Indiana, slowly sagging southeast. The associated surface low will push across Indiana today before reaching Appalachia tonight. Time heights through the day keep plentiful lower level moisture available and this should lead to continued periodic light showers. Heavier rain is not expected as dry air continues to infiltrate the system. Thus will continue to use high pops today for light precipitation amounts. Clouds and precip will keep temperatures down, resulting in below normal highs in the middle 70s.

Tonight...stronger surface high pressure is suggested to build across WI and MI and spill into Indiana. This will result in continued clearing skies as the earlier low drifts east and mid level dry air and subsidence arrives across Indiana. Thus clearing skies this evening. Lows will only fall to the middle 60s.

Monday and Tuesday...

Strong mid level ridging in place over the upper midwest on Monday and Tuesday will continue to provide strong subsidence and dry air across Indiana to start the work week. Forecast soundings show a very dry column in place with a mid level inversion in place each afternoon. Meanwhile strong surface high pressure will be moving across the southern Great Lakes, providing cooler easterly flow. Thus expect mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights with high sin the middle 80s.

Wednesday...

Dry weather appears in store on Wednesday as high pressure stretching from the upper midwest and across the Great Lakes will continue to maintain control of our weather. Forecast soundings suggest a dry column on Wednesday that should lead to just partly cloudy skies.

Thursday through Saturday...

The upper pattern during this period looks to consist of shallow and broad troughing in place across the northern CONUS east of the Rockies. A few embedded short waves look to pass during this time within the flow aloft. Within the lower levels a weak frontal boundary is depicted lingering across Indiana on Thursday into Friday. This lower level convergence in combination with weak forcing aloft and more humid air mass in place will result in the need for pops each day. By Saturday, warm and humid southerly flow is depicted. Forecast soundings show steep lapse rates favorable for diurnal convection. Thus once again, pops will need to be included on Saturday.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 136 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Impacts:

- Predominately MVFR early this afternoon improving to VFR later this afternoon into the early evening

- Isolated shower cannot be ruled out near IND/BMG through this evening

Discussion:

Low pressure over southern Indiana is expected to slowly drift SE through the day. Isolated showers cannot be ruled out near IND/BMG, but confidence is too low for an explicit mention. Predominately MVFR cigs ongoing will improve VFR late this afternoon into the early evening as the surface high to the northwest begins to build across Indiana. Look for northerly flow through much of the period to turn northeasterly on Monday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.