textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Overall coverage of showers will diminish today.

- Wind gusts between 20-30 mph possible at times.

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late this week through early next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1003 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Forecast is in decent shape this morning. Upper forcing produced rain farther to the north than anticipated, so upped PoPs north as needed this morning.

Initial boundary is moving east into the central part of the forecast area, with a wind shift to the southwest behind it. The lower dewpoints lag behind this boundary back into eastern Illinois.

Radar shows another slug of rainfall moving into the southeast and eventually into eastern forecast area, so upped PoPs there as needed as well. Rain will taper off elsewhere, but additional patchy light rain or some drizzle may still develop this afternoon. Will keep some low PoPs going then.

Weak elevated instability will continue ahead of the drier air moving in. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder, but odds are too low to include in the forecast.

Temperatures will climb a bit before cold advection begins this afternoon and allows readings to fall some, especially west.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 1241 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A positively-tilted trough located over the Great Plains is slowly tilting more negatively this evening. At the surface, low pressure centered over Minnesota is lifting northward with a trailing cold front extending well southward through Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and through Texas. Surface low pressure is beginning to reform over eastern Kansas into southwest Iowa as the base of the trough gains negative tilt. This secondary low will then become the primary low overnight, lifting northward into Wisconsin.

Here in Indiana, the tightening pressure gradient from the low over Iowa will help drive a potent 40-50kt low-level jet northward tonight. Strong warm air advection is ongoing with temperatures near 70 as of 9pm. Surface winds have largely died down, compared to earlier, which is due to increasing boundary layer stability. ACARS soundings out of IND show a rather deep stable layer, roughly to 3km agl, which will inhibit downward momentum transfer for the time being. Soundings also show a rather dry column with substantial dryness in the mid and upper-levels. As such, buoyancy is almost non- existent in the current soundings.

Going forward, guidance is in good agreement showing greater moisture advection in a narrow band ahead of the approaching cold front. This will help improve the thermodynamic environment overnight from a convective standpoint. Nevertheless, poor lapse rates and a stable boundary layer will limit instability to under 500 J/Kg MUCAPE. Thunderstorms are still possible, however, due to limited CIN and sufficient large-scale forcing. Severe weather does not appear likely, again due to poor lapse rates and limited instability. Gusty winds are possible at least initially as rainfall encounters residual dry air.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have entered our CWA form the southwest as of this writing (12am), progressing northeastward rapidly. High-resolution guidance shows a QLCS weakening it as it encounters the dry and stable pre-frontal environment. Gradually, as the column becomes saturated, heavier showers and embedded storms arrive later tonight and towards morning. Rainfall amounts between 0.25 and 0.75 inches will be most common, with locally heavier amounts possible further south and east.

Scattered showers may linger into the afternoon until the cold arrives around 18z. After that, westerly surface winds and mostly cloudy skies are anticipated. Highs today will likely occur before sunrise.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday looks quiet ahead of an approaching upper trough and surface cold front. The trough and cold front will move through Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf cut off. Will have some mainly slight chance PoPs on Friday, with the most coverage expected during the first half of the day.

Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s, but Friday will see mainly upper 50s for highs as cooler air moves in behind the front.

Saturday onward...

Northwest flow will continue Saturday into early next week. An upper low moving through southeast Canada will bring another cold front on Sunday. Similar to Friday though, moisture will be very limited with the Gulf cut off again. Will go with a dry forecast through the entire period.

The cold front won't have much cold air behind it. Highs in the middle 50s on Saturday will gradually moderate to the lower and middle 60s by Tuesday. Lows will be near freezing for parts of the area Saturday and Sunday nights.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 647 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread showers expected through this morning before tapering off during the afternoon

- Predominately MVFR cigs through the period with brief IFR cigs possible this morning, brief VFR cigs possible 17-23Z today

- Occasional wind gusts between 17-21 kt are possible today

Discussion:

Widespread rain is ongoing as a system pushes through the region. Predominately MVFR cigs are expected through the period, but brief improvement to low end VFR appears possible, mainly between 17-23Z today. There is also potential for brief IFR cigs this morning. Rain showers will become more isolated to scattered in coverage towards midday before eventually tapering off during the afternoon.

Surface winds will veer to west-southwesterly after the cold front passes through this afternoon. Gusts between 17-21 kt are possible today.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.