textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Saturday, with widespread moderate rainfall totals possible

- Seasonably chilly weather returns this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

A weak surface low over southern lower Michigan will continue to push off to the east overnight. A cold front is passing through the area at the moment, and some clearing is making it into southwestern portions of the area as expected. A few stray sunbeams may make it as far as Indy metro before sunset, but the persistent inversion aloft will likely allow for redevelopment of low stratus overnight across much of the area before further drying aloft and a resumption of low level warm advection on Wednesday allows substantial clearing during the day tomorrow. Despite cool advection, the cloud cover will limit diurnal cooling, with lows dropping into the mid 30s to around 40 tonight. Highs on Wednesday will rise into the low to mid 50s across most of the area with plentiful sunshine by mid to late morning and southerly surface flow resuming.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 304 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Temperatures through the remainder of the work week will remain well above normal, with low to mid 60s likely for much of the area Thursday and Friday despite rain potential.

Ridging will keep the area dry through at least Wednesday night, with a developing panhandle low ahead of a large scale upper trough pushing northeast into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night bringing the next opportunity for rainfall, with chances highest Thursday night. Stability indices suggest at least an isolated thunder potential Thursday night as well.

A couple of upper level vort maxes are likely to combine over the central CONUS Friday into Friday night, allowing for development of a second, likely stronger low pressure system over the western Gulf coast/lower Mississippi valley as we move into the weekend, which would then push rapidly north/northeastward into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes as well, likely bringing another round of widespread precipitation to the area.

At this point, it appears we will be plenty warm enough for the majority of this precipitation to fall as rain, but trends will need to be monitored. Some low chances for light snow will be necessary towards the tail end of the low's influence Saturday night.

Late in the weekend into early next week, high pressure will keep the area dry but significantly cooler, with Sunday looking to be the coldest day with highs back down into the 30s.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1234 PM EST Tue Jan 6 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR ceilings through tonight with brief exceptions at HUF/BMG

- Occasional wind gusts to near 20KT this afternoon

Discussion:

Central Indiana is in the warm sector of a weak low pressure system passing to the north this afternoon, but this will be relatively brief, as the cool front will pass through the area later this afternoon into the evening.

Widespread MVFR ceilings are currently present, though some clearing appears likely to make it into southwestern portions of the area for at least a time late today into the evening hours, before stratus redevelops overnight. MVFR conditions should remain the rule. Drying aloft and the onset of shallow mixing tomorrow will allow VFR conditions to return everywhere by mid morning Wednesday.

Winds will be from 240-260 degrees through late afternoon, with occasional gusts to near 18-20KT at the sites. Winds will veer a bit with frontal passage to 260-280 overnight, with gusts subsiding and sustained winds dropping below 10KT, remaining there the rest of the period. Winds will resume southwesterly flow tomorrow.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.