textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Blustery conditions today with perhaps some flurries north

- Slick areas on roads remain possible today

- Additional snow chances late Monday into early Tuesday for all areas

- Wind chills at night...into the teens through Monday night...down to possibly near zero Wednesday night

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 939 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. We did add more weight to high-resolution guidance for T/Td through tonight as this seems to better capture ongoing cold air advection. Additionally, bumped the wind speeds/gusts a bit to better match observations. Winds have been gusting to 40mph around sunrise but have since diminished slightly. Though gusty, a continual but slow downward trend is expected as surface low pressure pulls away. A few scattered flurries are possible as well, especially this evening as winds align more parallel to Lake Michigan. Southward extent of flurry activity will be limited by decreasing wind speeds.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Early This Morning...

Ahead of a cold front early this morning, temperatures have risen to above freezing across central Indiana, and precipitation has changed to rain. These temperatures will allow some melting, especially over the southern two-thirds of the area that saw lighter snowfall amounts.

However, as the cold front passes in the pre-dawn hours, temperatures will fall back to below freezing. This will allow water on untreated surfaces to refreeze, creating additional slick spots. Winds will gust over 30mph with and behind the front. However, not seeing much in the way of blowing snow upstream in areas that received higher amounts. The brief warming period may help to moisten the top layer of the deeper snow to prevent significant blowing. Any additional precipitation behind the front will be flurries or isolated snow showers.

Given the above, will cancel all winter weather products with this issuance. Will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight potential slick spots and travel impacts of these.

Today...

During the day today, low level moisture will be trapped underneath an inversion, and this should keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy. Some weak lift from an upper trough to the north may bring some flurries to the northern forecast area.

Temperatures won't do much today with cloud cover and cold advection, with temperatures generally in the middle and upper 20s. Winds will make it feel like the teens.

Tonight...

Some upper energy moving southeast may clip the far northern forecast area, but if anything were to reach the local area, only a few flurries would be expected. Lake effect snow showers should remain north of central Indiana.

Subsidence behind this feature and with surface high pressure moving in may be enough to poke some holes in the low cloud cover. Some mid and high clouds will be moving in from the west overnight ahead of the next system though.

Thus, still expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. If breaks get big enough, temperatures in the north where deeper snow cover exists could get colder than expected. For now though, will keep lows in the upper teens north to the lower 20s south.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 329 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Monday through Wednesday...

*UNSEASONABLY COLD...NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS IN TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS* *ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY*

Mid-winter pattern to continue into the mid-week as broad and deep polar low over Hudson Bay maintains pattern of surface high pressure from western Canada into central CONUS/Midwest under moderately strong and generally confluent H500 flow. Quasi-split energy amid deep trough extending to southern US will recombine as next short wave both lifts slightly and tilts while tracking from Four Corners region at end of short term...into Indiana by Monday night.

Cold column amid H850 temperature gradient from negative 9 to negative 3 degrees Celsius...and corresponding surface weakness tracking well to our southeast...will promote an all-snow type amid what should be a brief burst of moderate to possibly heavy snow during the Monday night timeframe. Forecast soundings suggest an overall colder profile than recent system that did about a 10:1 SLR for much of the region... yet what should be a widespread isothermal layer within 700-850 mb around negative 10 degrees Celsius should limit residence in the dendritic growth zone and keep ratios below 15:1. Comparatively colder ground and nocturnal timing should make for more efficient accumulations...with QPF ranging around 0.15-0.30 inches promoting widespread light accumulations. Greater potential for areas of moderate snowfall over southeast zones with system progged to organize and intensify as it passes to out southeast...although low confidence in where any better banding might set-up given wider range of solutions regarding spatial distribution.

Thankfully overall lower wind speeds can be expected through the Monday-Tuesday periods courtesy of weaker gradient within next surface ridge arriving from the southern Plains. Just the same, temperatures through Tuesday ranging from around 20F to perhaps the low 30s will associated wind chills only 5-10 degrees lower than dry bulb readings. Breezy conditions to return Wednesday, allowing wind chills only into 20s despite southwest flow boosting readings back into 30s.

Wednesday night through Saturday...

**ANOMALOUSLY FRIGID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WIND CHILLS ALONG/NORTH OF I-70 POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM NEGATIVE 5 TO 15 DEGREES*

Coldest weather and lowest wind chills yet this season to impact central Indiana during Wednesday night to Thursday night timeframe as arctic cold front ahead of next northwestern surface ridge crosses Midwest Wednesday night. Appears only weak forcing aloft which would limit snow chances/amounts, but modest return of column moisture ahead of this boundary could allow a few accumulating snow showers, especially for northern zones.

Bigger story to be frigid air mass tracking over snow-covered territory to our northwest amid its approach. Limited modification will allow temperatures possibly into single digits by early Thursday, which would translate into potentially sub-zeo wind chills amid moderate northwest breezes. What should be an anomalously cold day Thursday amid diminishing breezes will potentially set-up a very cold overnight into Friday where lows near zero would be on the table for northern zones where a thick snow pack will still be present...with wind chills possibly falling into the negative single digits for at least some of the region.

Yet another opportunity for at least light winter precipitation will occur through the last few periods of the long term...albeit with lower confidence given run to run inconsistency and uncertainty regarding timing and location of supporting forcing amid the somewhat disorganized upper trough over the central US. Slight moderation expected during this late week period, so an overall snow to rain trend would be expected should at least light precipitation occur. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 44/29.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1240 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Impacts:

- Predominant MVFR conditions through tonight - Flurries possible into this evening - Gusty winds around 25-30kt this afternoon

Discussion:

Gusty W-WNW winds behind a departing storm system continue today with frequent gusts to 25-30kt. These winds will die down this evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds pick up slightly and become east-southeasterly after 12Z Monday.

MVFR ceilings will be present through today and into tonight. Guidance shows the low clouds breaking up towards morning right as some mid to high-level cloud cover advances from the west. Ceilings between 6000-10000ft are expected Monday morning into afternoon.

Snow becomes likely Monday night, though this is after the end of the TAF period and will not be included just yet.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.