textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend, with lows around freezing through Sunday night

- Highs return to the 60s early in the work week, but cooler temperatures will return mid-late week

- Isolated to scattered showers are possible Wednesday night into Thursday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Fair weather to continue overnight as high clouds from earlier this evening have dissipated while sliding southeast over southern central Indiana zones. Somewhat weaker surface ridge aligned from southern Plains up the Ohio Valley, will maintain a dry column with light winds with most likely a southwest heading when not variable/ calm. Only potential impact through dawn will be quick visibility variations in any patchy fog...focused mainly south of Interstse 70.

Dewpoints near the low 30s will guide overnight lows, with upper 20s expected for many rural locations...and a good chance of the season's first freeze at Indianapolis Intl Airport. The Indianapolis Area's official first freeze has been observed as early as September 30 (in both 1899 and 1993) and as late as November 27 (1902). Continuous low temperature records for Indianapolis began in May 1871.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 139 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over MO and southern IL. This was resulting in a cool northwest flow across central Indiana. GOES19 shows some high, thin wispy CI pushing across Indiana. The upper pattern across the United States was dominated by an upper low over WNY and another low just south of AZ. This was resulting in Pacific upper flow streaming across much of the country, streaming from the NW United States, across the Great Plains to the Ohio Valley and the Carolinas. Dew points across Central Indiana were in the lower to mid 30s.

Tonight...

Dry weather will continue to be expected tonight. An upper level trough will push across Ontario and the northern Great Lakes, but this forcing will stay well north of Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface, the strong high pressure system to our west will continue to build across Indiana. Forecast soundings and time heights continue to show a dry column with subsidence through the night. Thus Mostly Clear skies will be expected along with lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s.

Sunday and Monday...

More dry weather with above normal temperatures will be expected on Sunday and into Monday as we start the work week. Within the NW flow aloft, a trough is expected to push across the Great Lakes tonight, but any forcing with that system will remain well north of Central Indiana. Furthermore moisture remains an issued as high pressure south of Indiana blocks any gulf moisture. Time heights and forecast soundings remain dry also. Thus a mostly sunny Sunday will be expected. However a moderate pressure gradient will set up across the area resulting in some afternoon wind gusts.

Upper ridging will build across Indiana on Sunday night through Monday as the surface high pressure to the southwest rebuilds across Indiana. Again forecast soundings show a very dry column with ongoing subsidence. Thus expect another sunny day with highs reaching the lower 60s.

Tuesday through Saturday...

Mainly dry weather will be expected through the week with the exception of late Wednesday through Thursday.

Models show northwest flow in place across Indiana on Tuesday into Wednesday with the main northern jet north of Indiana, across the Great Lakes. Meanwhile high pressure over the northern plains on Tuesday will be building east and passing across Indiana through Wednesday. This will lead to continued dry and cool weather.

By Wednesday night and through Thursday, an upper trough is shown to drop out of western Ontario and deepen as it pushes across the Great Lakes and into Indiana with ample forcing available. An associated surface low is projected to push across Indiana on Wednesday Night and Thursday, as a cold front passes across the area on late Wednesday night. With these features in play, Chances for rain will need to be included.

By Friday, Indiana will find itself on the backside of the departing low and trough as a cool and strong area of Canadian high pressure builds across Indiana. Although an early, wrap around shower cannot be ruled out on Friday, dry weather and cooler weather building across the area will be the rule for Friday into Saturday, with below normal temperatures expected at that time.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 628 PM EST Sat Nov 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility in patchy fog is possible around 12Z at KLAF - Winds slowly veering from SW to W Sunday - Gusts up to 16-23KT Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

Outside of possible brief MVFR towards 12Z at KLAF, VFR conditions are expected to prevail near central Indiana terminals through Sunday evening. Broad but rather weak surface high pressure currently spread across much of the central CONUS will shift its axis to the southern states through the TAF period...with ridging maintained across the Midwest while a quick short wave crosses the Great Lakes.

Continued dry column will allow SCT high cloud through 02Z near/south of I-70, followed by mainly SKC through 10Z...and more FEW/SCT high cloud through much of Sunday ahead of subtle cool front trailing the northern wave. This boundary will have a dry passage, veering winds slightly from southwesterly to mainly west by 00Z Monday.

Light winds overnight should increase slightly pre-dawn, with 7KT reached 13Z-15Z. Gusts to climb to 17-23KT at KLAF-KIND Sunday afternoon...with westerly winds near 7KT after 00Z Monday at KIND.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.