textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers south end by early evening

- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week

- Heat indices around 100 degrees on Wednesday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 949 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Only minor edits needed to the forecast this evening. Reduced sky cover now that diurnal cumulus has largely dissipated. Additionally, removed the mention of precipitation from our far southern counties since radar shows activity south of our CWA now with no further development expected. Expect mainly clear skies tonight with a light northeasterly flow. Some patchy ground fog is possible but coverage is expected to be low.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight...

A weak inverted surface trough along with the proximity of an upper trough to the south of central Indiana will keep the threat of some scattered showers across southern portions of the area into early evening. Forecast sounding show a lot of dry air aloft along with pa weak inversion aloft. These will help keep thunder odds low enough not to mention.

Otherwise clouds will decrease tonight a surface high pressure builds into the area. Lows will be in the lower to middle 60s.

Monday...

A large upper level high will start to build into the area on Monday. The inverted surface trough will be just south of the area. Feel that the influence of the upper high will be enough to keep the forecast dry. (Still wouldn't be surprised if the extreme southern forecast area had an isolated shower sneak in during the afternoon, but odds are too low to mention).

Highs will be in the middle and upper 80s.

Tuesday through Thursday...

The impressive upper high (with heights potentially near 600 dam to the northwest of the local area) will dominate the weather through this period. Subsidence will keep things dry and allow high temperatures to gradually rise into mid-week. Highs will be around 90 on Tuesday and in the lower to perhaps middle 90s for Wednesday and Thursday.

Dewpoints will return to the lower and middle 70s, which will bring peak heat indices in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees, with the warmest readings expected Wednesday.

Friday into next weekend...

The upper high will get pushed to the west as upper troughing moves into the northeastern USA. Questions remain on specifically when this will occur as well as how far west the high will get. Upper energy moving around the high may bring some scattered showers and thunderstorms at times.

Highs will lower into the upper 80s for next weekend. Of course these may be higher or lower depending on if the upper high is closer or farther away.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 734 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for patchy shallow fog at KLAF/KBMG Monday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period except for possible brief morning fog at LAF and BMG. Some diurnal cumulus is likely again on Monday but with much lower coverage than today due to dry air advecting in from the northeast.

Surface high pressure sits just to the northwest of Indiana providing breezy northeasterly winds today. Northeasterly flow will continue through the TAF period with the daytime hours featuring gusts 15-20kt at times. Winds largely diminish during the overnight hours.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.