textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries through early this evening

- Light snow possible across northern parts of central Indiana Sunday evening

- Wind chills as low as -15 to -10 Sunday night and Monday night

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cold afternoon in progress with pockets of flurries and an occasional lighter snow shower moving across the northern half of the forecast area. 19Z temperatures remained nearly steady in the lower and mid 20s with gusty westerly winds keeping wind chills in the teens.

An upper level trough continues to amplify across the region this afternoon aided by an upper low pivoting east across the mid Mississippi Valley. The upper low will become absorbed within the parent trough this evening but the overall cyclonic flow aloft will continue through the rest of the weekend with a stronger mid level vort arriving late Sunday with the potential for light snow across northern portions of the forecast area.

Current ACARS sounding from KIND shows a strong inversion present just above 800mb with steep lapse rates beneath it. Despite a lack of appreciable moisture...this has been and will likely continue to be enough to produce scattered flurries for the remainder of the daylight hours focused mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Stratus will remain as well into the evening with the potential for clouds to break up tonight as surface ridging expands into the Ohio Valley and the inversion weakens. Westerly winds will continue to gust to 25 to 30 mph through the early evening before dropping back to 10 to 15 mph overnight.

Model soundings show the inversion attempting to reestablish albeit in a weaker state within the boundary layer during the predawn hours and continuing into Sunday morning. Expect lower pockets of stratus to build back into the region from the north as a result with sun gradually diminishing into the early afternoon. Much of the day will be quiet but cold despite the onset of weak warm advection in advance of the aforementioned upper level wave and an associated Arctic front poised to move across the forecast area Sunday night. A broader area of flurries with light snow as well will expand into the northern Wabash Valley ahead of the front late day Sunday then quickly shift east Sunday night.

Temps...highs for today have largely been reached with slowly falling temps through sunset. Lows tonight will fall into the 10 to 15 degree range across the forecast area. Low level thermals support lower 20s to upper 20s from north to south for highs Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

An ongoing large upper level trough will persist over much of the CONUS and Canada through the start of the new week with a few short waves moving through it. An associated surface low will be exiting the Great Lakes region which could start the forecast period with some light snow before more influence from a surface high brings drier air to the area for the rest of Monday through the end of Tuesday. This troughing pattern will continue to bring the cold, windy air mass to the area, allowing for Monday to be our coldest day of the forecast period. Expect highs Monday to be in the teens with lows both during the morning and the following night to see single digits. Gusts of 20-30 mph during this time will bring wind chills from 0 degrees down to around -15 at times, so bundle up to not be so daunted by the chill.

Another short wave a surface low will warm temperatures up briefly, as well as bring slight PoPs, before temps drop again for the remainder of the long term. Yet another low looks to bring a better chance of precipitation for the end of the week and likely followed by another surge of cold air. At this time, expecting to see a mix of precip types, although it is not entirely clear yet in what form that will fall. For now sticking with rain transitioning to snow but will need to keep an eye on trends in the thermal profile.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1127 AM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Impacts:

- VFR ceilings expected through this evening with MVFR returning early Sunday

- Westerly wind gusts peaking at 20-25kts through early evening

Discussion:

Stratus has largely lifted back up into the VFR category late this morning and expect that to continue through this evening. AZ few flurries are possible through the rest of the day but will have no impact on the terminals. Westerly wind gusts will peak at 20 to 25kts through the afternoon then fall back to 10 to 15kts this evening.

Model soundings show a boundary layer inversion strengthening and lowering late tonight into Sunday morning with stratocu likely to slip back into the MVFR category. Winds will back to southwest by midday Sunday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.