textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday, with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Potential for a light dusting of snow south of a Terre Haute to Seymour line this evening

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 914 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows strong high pressure in place over the upper midwest. Low pressure was found over OK. The surface high was nosing SE, across IL to central Indiana, resulting in light to calm winds across our area. GOES16 shows an area of mid and high cloud over IA and northern IL, drifting SE and elongating within the flow aloft. Broad cyclonic flow remained in place aloft over Ontario, influencing the flow aloft over the NE quadrant of the CONUS.

Ongoing forecast appears in good shape. Another quiet and cold afternoon is expected as the surface high to the northwest is expected to continue to build across Indiana. Forecast soundings show dry lower and mid levels with some saturation arriving aloft through the day. This suggests the cloud cover upstream will advance across our area through the day, resulting in increasing cloudiness.

Temperatures will be similar to persistence with a similar cold air mass in place. Highs in the upper teens and low 20s appear on the mark.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Another quiet and cold night is in process across central Indiana, with 2 AM temperatures mostly ranging from around 10 above to nearly 10 below, and significant variation over short distances, as is common over a deep snowpack.

Increasing mid and high cloud in the latter half of the night, continuing into the daytime, will serve to both slow cooling a bit and limit diurnal warming today, keeping highs similar just a bit below persistence despite increasing thicknesses, around the mid teens to low 20s.

The diurnal range will continue to be limited by cloud cover tonight, though the persistent snowpack will again allow lows well down into the single digits, with some areas again getting below zero.

Models depict an area of weak midlevel frontogenetic forcing on the northern periphery of low pressure passing well to the south late today into tonight, which is coincident with a moist dendritic growth zone over southern portions of the region, primarily during the evening hours into the early overnight. Will carry low PoPs during this time - low level dry air will be a complicating factor, though this should be overcome eventually allowing at least some light snow to make the ground. Any snow that falls should be light, fluffy, and fairly dry - a thin coating of a tenth or two is certainly possible with minimal liquid equivalent.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 315 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Cold continues through the long term but relief, albeit quite relative, is finally in site with highs returning to the 20s next week. This weekend will provide one last blast of frigid air and the chance for flurries at times. Highs will be in the teens Friday and Saturday with lows near 0. A short wave passing through will produce just enough wind to potentially drop wind chills back into advisory criteria Friday night so one last headline may be needed. The wave could also bring chances for flurries periodically this weekend, but moisture will largely be lacking thanks to blocked Gulf moisture and nearby surface high pressure.

Going into the new week, the highly amplified trough is expected to finally break down, becoming more zonal and allowing for a warmer southerly flow at times. Parts of the area could even creep into the 30s around midweek with lows in the teens. Models remain in decent agreement of another trough passing through that could bring additional snow midweek, potentially accumulating snow. Beyond this system, the upper pattern hints at a cold airmass stretching back into the area.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 558 AM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Impacts:

- VFR through the period

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period.

Mid and high cloud will increase through the daytime hours as low pressure passes well to the southwest. Winds will respond by becoming more northwesterly and then northerly with time, though variability is expected, particularly during the first half of the day. Winds will generally be well below 10KT.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ021- 028>031-035>049-054>057.