textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Sunshine returns this weekend with mild temperatures

- Rain expected Monday night through early Wednesday

- Much colder air for Thanksgiving into next weekend

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 221 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Drier air and subsidence to the north is beginning to make its presence felt early this morning as rain has steadily diminished on coverage across the region along with a decrease in lower visibilities and ceilings. Temperatures at 06Z were in the 40s.

After four days with thick cloud cover across the region...the sun is set to make a reappearance finally today as a high pressure builds into the area in the wake of system that brought the rain and dismal conditions Friday. While a weak frontal passage tonight will bring a brief return of mid level clouds...today begins a dry and mild stretch for central Indiana set to extend into Monday.

Light showers are lingering across northern portions of the forecast area but as deeper moisture is pinched off to the south...coverage of the rain is diminishing rapidly. Expect any light rain or drizzle to fully depart over the next few hours as an upper level wave shifts east. While ceilings are lifting in response to the drier air advecting into the region from the north clouds will remain in abundance for the next several hours. Clearing will arrive over the northern Wabash Valley near daybreak then expand southeast across the forecast area through midday. Mid level clouds may linger into the early afternoon across southern counties but the trend will be for increasing sunshine as the day progresses.

Broad subsidence associated with the high pressure ridge will modulate conditions into this evening. The aforementioned weak frontal boundary will pivot across the region from late evening into the overnight but associated moisture will be significantly limited. A few hours with a mid level deck and a windshift will be the primary features signaling the frontal passage. A reinforcing surge of dry air and subsidence will follow by Sunday morning with mostly clear skies returning.

Temps...low level thermals are supportive of highs in the low to mid 50s...once again a few degrees below the model blend. Lows tonight will fall into the mid and upper 30s.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 221 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Seasonably mild and dry weather is expected over the weekend into early Monday under the influence of surface high pressure and modest ridging aloft.

The next rainmaker for the area is the closed low currently centered off Baja California, which will gradually shift northeastward and may phase with a northern stream upper level disturbance as both promote lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains, with the resultant surface low moving quickly into the Great Lakes early to mid next week. This system will bring another round of rain to the area, particularly Monday night into Tuesday.

Depending upon the intensity of the upper low/trough, there will be some low potential for lingering rain as late as Tuesday night into early Wednesday, but these chances are far more uncertain at this point.

What is more certain is that a fairly substantial cooldown is likely for Thanksgiving and beyond, though the exact magnitude and persistence of the colder conditions remains to be seen. Nevertheless, temperatures will be substantially colder for the holiday weekend, with wind chills in the teens likely overnights.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 541 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Impacts:

- IFR ceilings for a few hours this morning mainly at KBMG otherwise VFR conditions developing

Discussion:

Ceilings are improving as drier air advects into the region from the north. Skies have largely cleared at KLAF early this morning and expect the clearing to arrive at the other terminals over the next few hours. Clouds will linger longest at KBMG but even there...VFR conditions are expected by mid morning. The approach and passage of a weak front this evening will spread a mid level deck across the terminals.

Northerly winds this morning will become light and variable as the day progresses before shifting back to southwest ahead of the front this evening. Winds will veer to westerly once the front passes predawn Sunday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.