textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers ending this evening

- Gusty winds through the evening and turning colder

- Drier and cooler weather Sunday through much of the first half of the upcoming week. Frost/freeze potential exists Monday and Tuesday nights

- Warmer weather returns for the second half of the upcoming week

SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Much of the forecast area has been spared by the convective risk as storms have intensified over far eastern Indiana over the last hour. These storms are already pressing into western Ohio with only a small threat for lightning lingering until the cold front passes later this afternoon. Winds have been gusty in the prefrontal environment peaking at 35 to 40mph. Temperatures at 18Z remained largely in the mid and upper 60s over most of the region.

The initial focus will be on the passage of the cold front over the next few hours ushering in a return to a much cooler regime set to last through the first part of the week. Concerns for a freeze are growing for Monday night as well.

The position of the cold front at 18Z extended from west of Kokomo southwest to near Terre Haute and Sullivan. This will push steadily east and cross the forecast area over the next 4-5 hours. Scattered low topped convection remains a possibility until the frontal passage but a lack of appreciable instability will largely mitigate any lightning concerns. A wind shift to west/northwest will accompany the frontal passage along with a brief bump in peak wind gusts as cold advection establishes. Obs over eastern Illinois have carried wind gusts up to 35-40mph for an hour or two behind the front.

The temperature drop is delayed slightly but the dewpoints fall 8 to 10 degrees almost immediately with the frontal passage and that will be felt as the humidity drops quickly. There appears to be about a 15 degree fall in temps over the 4 hours following the frontal passage which would equate to readings falling into the 40s by late afternoon in the northwest and across the rest of the area throughout the evening. Winds will remain brisk all evening making it feel noticeably colder for evening outdoor activities as wind chills slide into the upper 30s by 02-03Z. Scattered showers will linger for a couple hours behind the front but expect dry conditions across the forecast area by the second half of the evening.

Skies may briefly clear overnight but the arrival of the trailing cold pool aloft will spread stratus back into the region from the north by daybreak Sunday. Cold advection and cyclonic flow maintaining mostly cloudy skies for much of the day will keep temperatures in the low and mid 50s all day. Sunshine will become more prevalent from the southwest during the afternoon as progressively drier air builds in with high pressure.

The first half of the upcoming week will be highlighted by cooler temperatures as a broad upper level trough settles over the region and a couple of fronts early Monday and Tuesday reinforce the cooler airmass across the area. With sunshine Monday expect highs to climb into the upper 50s and lower 60s but the secondary frontal passage Monday night will bring the coldest air in on Tuesday with highs likely to hold in the mid and upper 40s over most of the forecast area.

Concerns for frost and freeze conditions remain front and center focused especially on Monday night. Lows Sunday night will fall into the upper 30s but winds should remain elevated with a tighter pressure gradient and mitigate more substantial frost accrual. Monday night however under clear skies lows in the upper 20s and lower 30s are possible. Freeze headlines will be needed for Monday night and Tuesday morning if these trends hold.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Saturday)

Issued at 232 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

The second half of the upcoming week will see a return to above normal temperatures as high pressure shifts east and the upper level flow regime returns to general ridging over the eastern U S with a broad trough in the west. Warm advection in the low levels will resume as a frontal boundary oscillates across the northern Plains and upper Midwest in response to the influence of multiple disturbances. Ultimately though...much of the extended will be less active than what we have experienced over the last several days.

Dry weather will continue midweek as the region remain under the influence of the departing high pressure. The aforementioned frontal boundary will slip south into the lower Great Lakes on Thursday and may get close enough to warrant an isolated convective threat over the northern Wabash Valley on Thursday. Otherwise...the risk for rain and thunderstorms will likely hold off until next weekend as low pressure ejects along the boundary and moves into the region.

Another chilly night is on the docket to start Tuesday night with growing confidence in the need for frost/freeze headlines. Beyond that though a progressive warming trend will commence on Wednesday after the chilly start to the week with 70s common by Friday and Saturday. There are hints of a more active pattern returning returning in the 7 to 14 day period along with persistent warmer than normal temperatures.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 703 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Impacts:

- Ceilings bounce between VFR and MVFR this evening - MVFR stratus returns Sunday morning with gusty northwest winds

Discussion:

Rain should pretty much be east of the sites by valid time. Ceilings will bounce between VFR and MVFR this evening, then become VFR. MVFR ceilings will return in the 10-13Z time frame and then persist through the morning before lifting to VFR. Confidence is medium in the timing of the MVFR.

A sporadic wind gust is possible early in the period. More frequent gusts will return after 14Z Sunday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.