textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wet pattern through Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce occasionally heavy rainfall and renewed flooding along area waterways

- Strong to severe storms possible this afternoon and evening into Saturday; damaging winds and hail will be the primary concerns

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week. Potential for lows in the low to mid 30s Monday through Wednesday mornings; Frost or freeze conditions possible

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1036 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A weak cold front has entered Indiana from the northwest, following a potent surface low passing to our north last night. The front is quickly losing steam, and has slowed to a crawl over our northwestern counties. High-resolution guidance show this front progressing as far as perhaps Indianapolis before lifting northward as a warm front.

Most guidance depicts showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon along the front. Model soundings show sufficient CAPE, between 1500-2500 J/Kg, but little in the way of large-scale lift. As such, convective activity this afternoon looks to be scattered in nature. There may be enough shear (30kt) for some loose organization into clusters or even brief supercells. Hodographs show some curvature in the low-levels. Severe potential is low, overall. Should a supercell form, however, it may pose a severe risk with all hazards possible.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An active pattern persists for central Indiana into the weekend with a few more rounds of showers and storms expected. Early this morning, a line of isolated showers is moving across parts of the area, but these are not expected to do much other than a few strikes of lightning and should diminish again by daybreak.

Another surface low will track NE of the area later today and tomorrow, forming a few additional periods of showers and storms that could be strong to severe at times. Central Indiana will generally stay within the warm sector today, providing a warm moist environment. Models are in decent agreement that the associated warm front will set up near or over our northern counties and drift northward as the low approaches. Model soundings show some capping over the area into midday before diurnal heating eventually erodes it. Increasing instability and modest shear could support strong to severe storms this afternoon into evening with damaging winds and hail being the main threats.

As the low continues its NE track over the Great Lakes, the associated cold front will then slowly push eastward across central Indiana Saturday. Along the front is yet another line of showers and storms will impact the area. Saturday's rain is expected to be heavier by comparison and could lead to isolated flooding concerns but generally less than an inch is expected at this time. Some storms could be strong to severe, particularly in the afternoon to evening hours, but confidence is low at this time. Showers should push out of the forecast area by Sunday morning. Behind the cold front, cooler temperatures return while the influence of high pressure to the west further pushes rain away. Sunday and Monday will only see highs in the 50s while lows are expected to drop into the 30s. Depending on just how low the temps get Sunday night, frost could be a concern in spots.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Strong Canadian high pressure will dominate the area during the early to mid portion of next week, with a significant cooldown (along with frost/freeze potential), and dry weather likely continuing through at least Wednesday.

Morning lows will likely drop into the low 30s Tuesday morning, and mid 30s Wednesday morning. Each day could see frost depending upon overnight winds, potentially damaging sensitive emerging vegetation, and Tuesday morning may see a freeze - a few upper 20s readings would not be out of the question.

As we move later into the work week, strong low pressure is likely to pass through James Bay and north of the Canadian Maritimes, with an extensive, elongated frontal boundary extending west/southwestward from this low back to the central Plains, and stalling out somewhere in or just north of the region. This will reintroduce chances for showers, and perhaps a few storms, though warm advection will help to moderate temperatures significantly by the latter part of the work week.

Fluctuations of the front and indications of another chain of upper level disturbances as we get into the week 2 period suggest a return to active weather is possible again for mid April. Stay tuned.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 20-30kt possible throughout the TAF period - Scattered showers with possible thunderstorms this afternoon and evening - Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms Saturday morning into afternoon.

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings this afternoon. MVFR or lower on Saturday with rain/storms.

A warm front is lifting north across Indiana and breezy southwesterly winds have taken hold. Winds should range from 10-15kt with gusts between 20-25kt at times. Speeds decrease a bit overnight to around 10kt while becoming more southerly. A return to southwesterly is anticipated Saturday morning. Winds continue from the southwest until a cold front arrives late Saturday afternoon with a wind shift to westerly.

Most guidance shows showers and thunderstorms this afternoon along the warm front. However, this activity will be scattered in nature. Timing these showers/storms for any particular terminal will be tricky, so a Tempo group was added to cover the most probable time frame.

A stronger line of storms associated with the cold front arrives Saturday morning. Rain is likely, with embedded thunderstorms. A prob30 was included for thunderstorms with reductions in visibility.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.