textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry through Thursday afternoon

- Unsettled pattern with multiple opportunities for rain and storms late Thursday through the weekend

- Heavy rainfall producing flooding and strong storms possible Thursday night into Friday

DISCUSSION (This Evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 226 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

High pressure will remain over the area through Wednesday with dry weather. A frontal boundary will drift into the area and become nearly stationary by late Thursday. This will bring a return to an unsettled pattern for late week into the weekend with opportunities for rain and thunderstorms. Upper level ridging will return to the region by early next week with warm and dry conditions developing.

This Afternoon through Thursday Night

High pressure exerting its influence over the region this afternoon as the deeper moisture plume has been shifted into the Tennessee and lower Ohio Valleys. As a result drier air has filtered south taking an edge off the oppressive airmass over the last week. 18Z temperatures were generally in the low to mid 80s with partly cloudy skies.

Much of the next 36-48 hours will remain dry for central Indiana as the aforementioned high pressure remains a primary influence. Fairly extensive cu field over the forecast area this afternoon but expect that to gradually diminish to the south through late day as drier air and subsidence advect in from the north. High clouds will linger overnight into Wednesday as the remnant upper level low continues to spin over western Kentucky and Tennessee. As the feature gradually weakens and moves towards the region...the moisture plume will pull back north slightly on Wednesday afternoon and open up the potential for isolated convection to drift back into far southern portions of the forecast area. Subtle surface ridging will maintain dry conditions through the rest of the forecast area through Wednesday night.

Much of Thursday will end up being quiet as well as the upper level wave departs off to the east and leaves weak ridging aloft over the region into the afternoon. An increase in moisture and instability will introduce the possibility for isolated convection but the focus will turn towards a stronger wave aloft traveling in tandem with a frontal boundary that will eventually become quasi-stationary over the forecast area by Thursday evening. Deep convergence developing along the boundary and the expansion of a low level jet into the region will support widespread strong convection developing Thursday night with the potential for training storms in the vicinity of the boundary as the low level jet becomes nearly parallel. PWATs will surge to near 2 inches over the southern half of the forecast area with flooding again becoming a concern from efficient rainfall processes. Storms may carry a risk for damaging winds as well...particularly if the convection Thursday evening can become outflow dominant. At this point...greatest impacts from storms Thursday night will be focused across the southern half of the forecast area.

Highs will return to the mid and upper 80s through Thursday with the possibility for a few locations to make a run at 90 Thursday afternoon.

Friday Through Saturday Night

Long range guidance depicts an active pattern persisting through the end of the week with multiple disturbances tracking through the region. Deep moisture remaining in place and sufficient forcing from the multiple waves will keep rain chances elevated through Saturday. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist environment should promote moderate to strong instability each day. Meanwhile, slight enhancement of mid-upper level flow will support up to 30 kt of effective shear. A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the period given the ample instability and modest shear at times.

The greater concern late this week will be the potential for heavy rainfall. Highly efficient warm rain processes in addition to the expected multiple rounds of convection could lead to localized flash flooding. Precipitable water values over 2.0 inches are expected which exceeds the 90th percentile for climatology this time of year. Efficient rainfall rates combined with repeated storms will be the main threat to monitor for flooding, especially if training occurs.

Sunday Onward

Model guidance generally depicts a low pressure system departing early Sunday morning. Broad cyclonic flow across the region and lingering low-level moisture will support low chances for showers and storms. Upper ridging should then build in aloft late Sunday into early next week providing more tranquil weather. There is some uncertainty on how far east the upper ridge builds which leads to lower confidence in the forecast. If the ridge remains further west, subtle impulse riding the northern periphery of the ridge could promote MCSs or storm clusters propagating towards central Indiana. This scenario appears unlikely early next week, but guidance suggest this could play out towards the middle of next week as the upper ridge begins to break down.

Increasing heights aloft and warmer 850mb temperatures advecting towards the region will lead to warming temperatures. Look for highs to reach the upper 80s to possibly near 90F early next week. Humid conditions combined with the heat may result in heat indices approaching the mid 90s.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 112 PM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog possible predawn Wednesday

Discussion:

High pressure has expanded across central Indiana this afternoon with drier air expanding south. Diurnal cu field in place but should gradually diminish through late day. High clouds though will linger tonight into Wednesday as a remnant upper low continues to spin over the lower Ohio Valley. Cannot rule out brief restrictions in fog predawn Wednesday at the outlying terminals but confidence too low to mention at this time. Northeast winds through the rest of the day will become light and variable tonight and Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.