textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry with near normal temperatures through Tuesday

- Showers and a few t-storms Tuesday night, with a few stronger storms possible north/west of Indianapolis

- Lovely spring weather Thursday-Friday..much warmer this weekend

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 325 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Lower heights from southwestern extent of rather deep trough crossing eastern North America will hold readings a few degrees below normal again today despite plentiful morning sunshine. Solid lapse rates amid broad but rather weak surface high pressure over most of eastern CONUS will promote SCT/BKN cumulus this afternoon...along with breezy conditions, with gusts around 20 mph for several hours across at least the region's northeastern half. Pattern turns tad quieter tonight into Tuesday under zonal ridging between waves...with robust winds through Tuesday PM from southwest return flow ahead of strengthening low entering Great Lakes.

Forecast period's best chances for rain showers will be a shorter window Tuesday night, with increasing confidence in brief precipitable water values climbing to 1.00-1.50 inches ahead of cold front, now favoring a few stronger thunderstorms around the late evening timeframe, mainly west of the I-69 corridor where isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out.

Cooler conditions Wednesday into Thursday with next cycle of Canadian high pressure bringing northwest flow, which could gust as high as 25-35 mph Wednesday should adequate sun combine with small but briefly potent vort spinning around the bottom of the departing system's parent H500 trough axis. Otherwise more reasonable breezes should be the rule while amplified high pressure extending from Hudson Bay to the Gulf coast oversees lovely bright springtime conditions through Friday with readings ranging from 40s to around 70F.

Progged split mid-level flow over the western US into the weekend will most likely yield stagnant surface low pressure near the central High Plains...which would combine with the large ridge, now over the southeastern US...to advect warmth and moderate humidity more common for early summer. Confidence is increasing in 80s this weekend, with moist southwest breezes likely pumping dewpoint high enough to favor at least widely scattered showers and perhaps a few t-storms, especially over the western/northern Midwest, closer to this fetch. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the forecast period increases from 72/52 today to 74/54 on Sunday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 617 AM EDT Mon May 11 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds up to 15-20KT this afternoon at KIND/KLAF - Winds veering through much of the period, from WNW at 18Z...to N at 00Z...to NE by 06Z tonight

Discussion:

VFR conditions to prevail over central Indiana through Tuesday morning. Broad area of surface high pressure crossing much of eastern North America today will maintain light and at times variable winds through 15Z this morning. Lower heights of corresponding upper trough crossing Indiana today will promote higher lapse rates...and therefore higher winds and greater coverage of mainly SCT/BKN cumulus for a few hours this afternoon. Winds will veer through NW/NNW headings this afternoon and early evening at mainly 6-12KT, with gusts to 15-20KT at KIND/KLAF late today. Winds will diminish early in the evening, yet continue veering to NNE by 03Z...and to ESE/SE by 11Z Tuesday morning. Surface gradient to strengthen Tuesday ahead of next system approaching Great Lakes... bringing flow at KIND above 7KT from the south by 14Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.