textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and thunder chances Friday and Friday night. Isolated strong to marginally severe storms are possible Friday afternoon.

- More showers and storms will return Monday, with a greater chance for severe weather at that time.

- Near to above normal temperatures through early next week.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 258 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Today...

An old boundary is keeping clouds and some isolated showers/sprinkles near the far northeast forecast area early this morning. This boundary may linger in the predawn hours, but then it should get pushed off to the northeast. Odds of rain though are low enough to keep a dry forecast.

Otherwise, upper ridging will bring dry and warm conditions. A few to scattered cumulus may pop up, and high clouds will pass through at times. Based on recent performance, nudged up guidance for highs, which are forecast to be in the lower 80s. Mixing will likely drive dewpoints down below guidance. The mixing will also bring wind gusts near 25 mph this afternoon.

Tonight through Friday...

Much of the night will be quiet. However, late tonight into Friday an upper trough will rotate around an upper low and bring forcing along with a cold front to the area. Moisture arriving on southwest winds will be adequate enough for rain.

However, there remain questions on storm coverage and intensity on Friday. The initial round of showers and storms will likely be diurnally weakening as they move in early on Friday. Some of the rain may dissipate as it moves east if it weakens enough.

Afternoon heating may allow what's left of the convection to increase in coverage and intensify before it exits the area to the east, or new convection may develop on leftover boundaries and additional forcing from the front.

This additional development and intensity will also be influenced by residual cloud cover from the morning rain. If clouds clear enough, instability may be enough to interact with decent but weakening winds aloft to cause an isolated strong to marginally severe storm across the eastern forecast area. The threat would be damaging winds.

Since there are a number of caveats, confidence in coverage of convection as well as intensity of convection is lower than average. Will keep the high guidance PoPs for now, but these may need to be lowered at some point.

Saturday and Sunday...

Surface high pressure will provide quiet weather this weekend. Highs will be in the 70s.

Monday and beyond...

Another upper trough and surface cold front will move through on Monday. This system will be stronger than the ones before and may produce some severe weather depending on exactly how things progress. Both analogs and machine learning forecasts are showing a threat for severe across central Indiana.

Another cold front will bring more rain chances to the area Wednesday into Thursday.

Temperatures will be warmer than normal on Monday, but closer to normal or a little below normal readings will occur Tuesday into Thursday.

There remains the potential for much cooler temperatures to open May.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1245 AM EDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts around 20kt this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. However, there is a nonzero chance for brief ground fog at KLAF near sunrise.

Some cumulus will pop up this afternoon, otherwise high clouds will move through from time to time. Winds will increase during the morning, with gusts to around 20kt expected this afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.