textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 25-40 mph possible tonight.

- Rain expected tonight, an isolated severe storm possible.

- Cloudy and mild on Friday.

- Turning colder for the second half of the weekend with light rain transitioning to light snow/flurries before ending

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure off the east coast while low pressure was pushing northeast across eastern KS. This was resulting in a warm and relatively moist southerly flow in place over Central Indiana. Dew points have surged into the lower and middle 40s and temperatures were climbing into the 50s.

GOES19 shows abundant cloud cover over Central Indiana associated with the approaching low pressure system. Aloft, a short wave was found over NB and KS, quickly moving northeast. Moderate ridging was in place over the eastern Great Lakes. This ridging was providing SW flow ahead of the approaching short wave steering that system toward the Great Lakes. Radar shows abundant showers and storms ahead of this upper system pushing into eastern KS, MO and IA. Radar across Central Indiana shows some initial precipitation pushing into the Wabash Valley.

Rainy and windy weather will be expected tonight. Models show the strong short wave pushing northeast to the Great Lakes, dragging the cold front across Central Indiana tonight. The bulk of the cold air precipitation will steer well north of Central Indiana, however, showers and perhaps a thunderstorm, associated with the passing cold front, will be expected. HRRR shows showers and storms associated with the front pushing across Indiana late this evening. Thus high pops will be used tonight as confidence for rain will be high as this line passes. Forecast soundings are on board showing saturation within the mid and lower levels. A moderate pressure gradient across the area along with a 50 knt LLJ associated with this low will allow for gusty winds tonight. Non-zero severe weather chance due to this LLJ and and possible shallow convection possible along and ahead of the front. Confidence for severe weather cannot be ruled out. A strong surge of cold air is not anticipated in the wake of the front. Thus plentiful cloud cover will prevent lows from falling too much, reaching the upper 40s and low 50s.

On Friday...surface high pressure will be building east into Indiana from the plains in the wake of the cold front. Time Heights through the day suggest lower level saturation while forecast soundings show moisture trapped beneath an inversion aloft. Upper level suggest weak ridging in place over Indiana as the departing short wave pushes to New England and an new upper low emerges over the southern Plains. This will place central Indiana between these two forcing systems. Thus Friday is looking to be a mostly cloudy day with mid temperatures in the mid 50s.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 245 PM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

A strengthening upper level low will dive into the upper Midwest Saturday and serve as the catalyst to reintroduce a more typical mid winter pattern for the region as it carves out a deep bu t progressive trough over much of the eastern part of the country for late this weekend. A quasi northwest flow regime aloft will briefly modify temperatures through midweek before an increasingly amplified pattern aloft highlighted by a ridge west and trough east by late next week.

There is potential for brief clearing of clouds Friday night as drier air passes through the Ohio Valley before thicker mid and high level cloudiness quickly expands back over the region in advance of a cold front. Signals hinting at the deepest moisture may split central Indiana with an area closer to the front and low pressure over the northern Great Lakes and a broad area with a secondary low tracking across the southeast U S. Highs Saturday will remain in the 40s with temps falling by late day as the cold front passes. This lack of more appreciable moisture will limit coverage and keep rainfall light on Saturday. Any lingering light showers will transition to light snow Saturday night and Sunday but again the lack of an overall deep moisture profile will limit precipitation to flurries or scattered light snow showers as the trailing upper low pivots across the region. It will be noticeably colder Sunday with highs struggling to reach the freezing mark and brisk W/NW winds holding largely in the teens.

High pressure will move from the central Plains to the Carolinas early next week as lower upper level heights retreat back north in the wake of the trough aloft shifting east. This will enable a quick recovery in daytime highs recovering into the mid and upper 40s on Tuesday. Rain chances return late Tuesday into Wednesday as another front swings through with colder air returning in its wake. Could see light snow in the backwash of this system as well Wednesday night and Thursday. The bigger impact beyond Wednesday will be the potential establishment of a broader and more extended period of colder than normal conditions that is likely to last beyond the extended and into Week 2 as the aforementioned amplified upper level pattern develops across the country. There are hints as well in the 7 to 14 day period of one or more opportunities for more impactful winter weather.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1159 AM EST Thu Jan 8 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 25-35KT late today into the overnight - MVFR ceilings tonight with possible IFR. - Isolated VCSH this afternoon...numerous -SHRA tonight

Discussion:

GOES19 shows mid and high clouds advancing across Central Indiana ahead of an approaching low pressure system and upper short wave. Best forcing appears to arrive tonight ahead of the associated cold front, and TAFs reflect best chances for precipitation during that window this evening. As the front approaches, cigs will deteriorate to MVFR, with brief IFR conditions possible with any heavier showers.

In the wake of the front, time heights and forecast soundings show lingering lower level saturation, indicative of MVFR or worse cigs on Friday morning.

A moderate pressure gradient will push across Central Indiana as the fronts and surface low passes tonight. This will allow wind gusts to near 30-35 knts starting late this afternoon and continuing overnight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.