textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool conditions through the weekend

- Dry weather expected over the next 7 days

- Progressively warmer next week with highs into the 60s by Wednesday and Thursday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 924 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Surface analysis early morning shows a large area of high pressure in place through the Mississippi Valley. Cool northwest flow was in place across Indiana. GOES19 shows some lake cloud steaming from Lake MI, pushing south across north central Indiana. Aloft, a highly amplified pattern was in place. A sharp omega block was in place with ridging over the plains states, low pressure over the northeast and a deep trough in place over the Pacific northwest extending into the intermountain west. Dew points across the area were in the lower 30s.

This afternoon, models suggest the high pressure building across the area today and ongoing subsidence will be in play. Forecast soundings and satellite suggest some of the lake cloud will drift across central Indiana this afternoon. Otherwise, forecast soundings suggest a dry column through the afternoon. Lake clouds will be most likely to drift across the eastern half of the forecast area, while more abundant sunshine will be found across the western half of the Central Indiana. 850mb temps across the area look to remain near -2C and with very subtle warm air advection in place. Thus highs in the upper 40s with a few 50s through the Wabash valley appear on target.

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Issued at 211 AM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

A strong upper low will pivot from the eastern Great Lakes into the Canadian Maritimes over the weekend...gradually loosening its grip on the weather across the region. Dry and seasonably cool weather is expected through early next week but as broad ridging aloft and at the surface expands across the Ohio Valley... temperatures will warm as the week progresses.

Today through Sunday Night

Areas of low stratus continue to redevelop across primarily the northeastern half of the forecast area early this morning. Despite these clouds...temperatures had fallen in to the lower and mid 30s across most of central Indiana as of 07Z.

The eastward progression of the upper low into New England today will enable drier air to begin advecting into the Ohio Valley but an overall cyclonic flow aloft will persist on the back side of the parent upper trough. A more expansive broken stratocu deck will redevelop as a result later this morning but should largely remain confined to the northeast half of the forecast area downwind of the Lake Michigan fetch with scattered diurnal cu elsewhere. Low clouds will linger across northeast counties tonight with skies clearing elsewhere as a strong high pressure ridge expands into the area from the west. The overall trend for Sunday will be for increasing sunshine and less clouds as the center of the surface high drifts into the mid Mississippi Valley. Stratocu should be more cellular in nature on Sunday afternoon across northeast counties as progressively drier air spreads east. Skies will become mostly clear across the entire forecast area Sunday night as high pressure centers over the region.

Temps...highs today will range from the mid 40s northeast where greater cloud cover is expected to the lower 50s in the lower Wabash Valley. Low level thermals suggest slightly warmer temperatures Sunday. Lows will range from the mid 20s to lower 30s both tonight and Sunday night.

Monday through Friday

With the departure of the upper trough off to the east...there will be a transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist for much of the upcoming week. The aforementioned surface high pressure will settle across the eastern half of the country with progressively deeper subsidence across the region keeping skies mostly clear. Any potential for rain will hold off until next weekend at the earliest at this point. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with highs rising into the 60s for the second half of next week.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1207 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2026

Impacts:

- VFR most of the TAF period. - Possible MVFR conditions 09-13z due to fog.

Discussion:

Northwest flow off of Lake Michigan continue to favor areas of stratocu that will continue to drift southeast today. Ceilings will reside at VFR levels through the afternoon before clouds diminish tonight. Brief MVFR ceilings are possible Sunday morning due to the potential of patchy light fog, mainly for KHUF, KBMG, and KLAF.

Northwest winds up to 15kts are expected for the rest of the afternoon with winds diminishing to less than 5kts tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.