textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Partly Sunny to Mostly Cloudy today with chances very light rain or sprinkles across southern Indiana.

- Colder tonight and Sunday, with light snow accumulations possible late tonight through early Monday, mainly east of I-74.

- Dry and cold weather for early next week before more rain and warmer temperatures mid-late next week.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure over the northern plains with a ridge axis nosing SE across Iowa to Illinois and Indiana. For the moment, this was providing mostly clear skies across the northern parts of Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor showed a different pattern. A strong southern jet was found streaming across the American southwest before streaming to the Ohio Valley and middle Atlantic States. High and mid level clouds within this flow were found over MO, AR and southern IL, streaming toward Central Indiana. Radar even shows a few light rain showers with these features over MO/AR and and TN. Also noted within the upper flow was a stronger area of Low pressure over Manitoba and western Ontario. All of these features will come together to impact our weather today, tonight and Sunday. Temperatures remained rather cold, in the 20s.

Today...

Models show the dry and cool high pressure remaining in place at the surface today, providing cold and dry northwest winds. Dew points look to remain quite dry through the day in the 20s. However the active southern jet stream is depicted to push mid and high cloud across Indiana, particularly across the southern parts by mid morning and through the afternoon. Forecast soundings through the day continue to keep dry air in place within the lower levels, as saturation is hinted at aloft. Thus, some very light precipitation will be possible mainly across the southern parts of the forecast area. Given this limited moisture very small pops may be used or the continued mention of sprinkles. Otherwise, as clouds are expected to arrive within the mid level flow, we will expect partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies. Highs should reach the upper 30s and lower 40s.

Tonight...

The high clouds aloft are expected to depart tonight, but they are suggested to be replaced by some lower level clouds during the evening and overnight hours. This appears to be due to our other mentioned weather feature, the upper low over Manitoba. Models suggest this feature will plunge southward today before beginning to impact our area tonight with cyclonic flow aloft along with the passage of an upper trough. Again, this weather system will be moisture starved as dew points are suggested to the remain in 20s, due to the surface high pressure system to the west providing continuous dry and cool northwest winds. Forecast soundings show some saturation with very low pwats near 0.30. Best saturation appears across the northeast parts of the forecast area including OKK and MIE. Thus will have the highest, albeit small, pops at those locations with lesser chances to the SW, where it appears saturation will not be attained. Cold air advection will continue to be in play tonight with 850MB temps falling to near -12C by 12Z Sunday. This will lead to lows in the lower to middle 20s.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 254 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Sunday Through Tuesday.

The forecast period begins with a focus on an upper level trough moving across the state on Sunday. While dynamic forcing is present, moisture remains a significant limiting factor as prevailing northwesterly flow prevents any meaningful tap into Gulf moisture. Forecast soundings show a consistently dry column with dew points struggling to climb out of the 20s. Despite the lack of deep moisture, the combination of mid-level forcing and favorable thermal profiles staying entirely below the freezing mark will support scattered at least some light snow. Best chances for measurable accumulation will be across the northeast portions of the area where forcing is maximized. High temperatures on Sunday will be suppressed in the upper 20s to near 30, followed by overnight lows in the low 20s.

By Monday and Tuesday, the upper pattern shifts toward a highly amplified state with a deep trough established along the East Coast and strong ridging building over the Western U.S. This synoptic setup places Indiana under a regime of northwest flow and lee-side subsidence, ensuring dry but cold conditions. Surface high pressure will build across the region, keeping skies mostly clear but temperatures well below seasonal norms. Highs on Monday will barely reach the freezing mark, while Tuesday begins another slow moderating trend with highs climbing into the lower 40s as the surface high slides east and winds shift to the southwest.

Wednesday Through Friday.

A significant transition is expected during the middle of the week as the amplified pattern begins to flatten and shift eastward. Strong WAA will develop on Wednesday as high pressure moves toward the Atlantic coast, allowing high temperatures to surge into the low to mid 50s. This represents a dramatic 30-degree swing from the weekend chill. However, this warmup comes ahead of a robust upper- level trough and associated surface low pressure system propped to impact the Ohio Valley by Wednesday night. Ensemble guidance suggests a high probability of rain with the main uncertainty being exact timing. There may be just enough instability could be present for embedded thunderstorms if the warmer/more moist end up the ensemble guidance verfies.

Cooler air returns behind the cold front for Thursday but still near normal. Rain may transition to a light rain/snow mix on the back side of the system early Thursday before dry air filters in. Long- range ensemble means indicate the pattern remains active, with yet another system potentially approaching by Friday. Confidence remains lower for the late-week period due to timing discrepancies among the major global models, but a general trend toward more seasonal temperatures and a more zonal flow regime is favored.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1219 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions.

- MFVR ceilings may be possible on after 220200Z at IND and LAF.

Discussion:

A ridge of high pressure stretching from the northern plains to Indiana will continue to provide northwest winds and cool conditions within the lower levels this TAF period. Models show SW flow aloft with mid level saturation passing across the TAF sites through the day on Saturday. This will result in VFR Ceilings through the day due to mid level clouds.

An upper level low is suggested to push a trough axis across Central Indiana tonight. Forecast soundings suggest a lowering of CIGs to MVFR at IND and LAF where the forcing appears best. Thus have trended toward some MVFR Cigs at that time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.