textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued threats for thunderstorms with heavy rain and possibly localized flooding through Saturday; an isolated strong storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out

- Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1018 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Slow moving showers and thunderstorms continue across our northern counties with some flooding concerns ongoing near Lafayette. Still monitoring storms to the west and trends in hi-res models for overnight convection. Still expecting our SW to see the bulk of these overnight storms but scattered storms are possible elsewhere. Luckily, increasingly becoming less concerned with the severe threat, outside of a few strong to severe wind gusts, and additional flooding concerns. Models show the line of storms weakening as they move into central Indiana and that they heaviest rain should stay just to the south.

Forecast was in pretty good shape but did update PoPs and temps to better match current observations.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 236 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Rest of This Afternoon...

Scattered convection will continue to develop this afternoon, especially north along and ahead of a slow moving front. Will have chance PoPs north half or so for these and slight chance PoPs south where there is less forcing for convection. The main threats from storms this afternoon will be locally heavy rain and resultant flooding. However, gusty winds are also possible.

Tonight and Saturday...

Uncertainty is higher than usual tonight with uncertainties in smaller scale upper forcing.

Convection along the boundary near the northern forecast area will likely diminish some this evening as heating is lost. Additional convection will move in later this evening and/or overnight as pieces of upper energy (and a potential MCV), with the focus on the southern forecast area. CAMs all have differing solutions in timing and coverage of the convection, which adds to the higher uncertainty for PoPs.

Given the uncertainty in the forcing, will keep PoPs mainly in the chance category. Will go highest across the south where the best upper energy should move through. Will time the highest PoPs after midnight, but details beyond that are quite uncertain.

Forcing will continue into Saturday morning, and some interaction will occur with the old surface front across the northern forecast area. Will go with chance category PoPs most areas. Saturday afternoon, the boundary will sink south, allowing chances for rain to diminish north but continue south.

The potential MCV moving in tonight into Saturday will increase shear across mainly the southern forecast area. This might be enough for an isolated severe storm with damaging winds.

Lows tonight will be in the middle 60s to around 70 with highs on Saturday in the mid 80s.

Sunday...

A large upper high will exert its influence across the far northern forecast area and will keep that area dry. However, an upper trough will still be close enough to the remainder of the area to keep some chance PoPs around, mainly during the afternoon when heating is maximized.

Monday through Wednesday...

The upper high will expand and increase its influence across central Indiana during this period. This will bring increasingly warmer temperatures to the area. Highs in the upper 80s on Monday will give way to mainly lower 90s by Wednesday. Dewpoints will also rise, reaching the 70s most areas by Wednesday. Resultant heat indices will peak in the middle to perhaps upper 90s.

The far south will remain close enough to the old upper trough on Monday to keep some low PoPs around. Will keep Tuesday and Wednesday dry with stronger influence from the high, but cannot rule out an isolated storm in the heat of the day.

Thursday and beyond...

Uncertainty is high on when the upper high will break down some and allow upper forcing to return to the area. This may start on Thursday into Friday. Will have some low PoPs around with below average confidence.

Temperatures will be slightly cooler with highs mainly in the upper 80s.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 812 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered convection at times through through the night which could linger into the morning

- MVFR visibilities in fog possible at most sites overnight with MVFR ceilings not out of the question within showers and storms

Discussion:

Showers and storms are expected overnight. Storms are already ongoing at LAF at the start of the period with additional storms possible between 06z and 12z at all other sites. Lowered ceilings and vis, near and into MVFR, are possible within storms. Fog will also be possible prior to daybreak which could lead to MVFR visibilities as well.

Winds will largely be light and variable overnight outside of higher gusts in storms. By tomorrow, wind direction will be predominately out of the ENE and generally less than 7 kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.