textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog across portions of the area early this morning

- Temperatures warming this week to well above normal, especially Thursday and Friday

- Periods of rain showers Thursday-Saturday, with areas of overall moderate rainfall possible

- Seasonably chilly weather returns this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Low clouds covered much of the forecast area early this morning, as cold advection continues behind an exiting system. Some patchy fog was around, mainly in the northern forecast area. (Clouds and increased winds have improved visibility across much of the southern forecast area). More extensive fog was back in northern Illinois.

Will have to watch the fog in northern Illinois to see if it spreads southeast into the area. Trends on satellite are hinting that portions of the southwest forecast area will clear before sunrise, and this may lead to some fog there. Will keep some patchy fog mention in the north and southwest this morning and will continue to monitor.

Otherwise, expect the clouds in the northeast half to two-thirds of the area to slowly clear from the southwest later this morning into early afternoon as the axis of a surface ridge moves east and warm advection returns at the surface.

The warm advection plus sunshine will lead to highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Tonight, high clouds will increase ahead of an approaching upper level trough. Lows will be in the middle and upper 30s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 302 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Remainder of work week to find central Indiana positioned within warm sector of organizing 996 mb surface low pressure as it tracks from Kansas High Plains Thursday morning to eastern Ontario by Friday. Associated ribbon of deep Gulf moisture will be impressive for mid-winter, with precipitable water values peaking over Indiana through the Thursday night period up to 1.50 inches. This will promote the first period of numerous to perhaps widespread rain showers late Thursday and Thursday night, with drizzle/few showers likely lingering into early Friday east of I-69. Perhaps a 6 hour window within Thursday night where at least isolated thunder is possible over mainly western zones where elevated instability may be able to drop a stronger wind gust through a quasi-isothermal boundary layer. Total rainfall through midday Friday likely 0.25- 0.50 inches for most areas, with 0.50-0.75 inches favored southeast of Greencastle where residence time in deep moisture will be maximized.

Upper pattern's deep H500 trough through the Plains will be slow to progress eastward courtesy of a secondary embedded vort plunging through the Dakotas at the start of the weekend, holding the slowly- passing elongated cold front near the region, next, weaker surface center of circulation to slowly lift along this boundary from the Mississippi Delta Friday night into the Midwest Saturday...a solid 12-24 hours after the better deep moisture will have departed Indiana to the east. Nevertheless, high-POP/lower-QPF scattered rain showers are expected for most of the region late Friday night through Saturday...with hopefully another 0.10-0.25 inches of rainfall for most zones. Saturday to be the most likely period of transition with frontal zone finally pushing east into Ohio ahead of broadening upper trough centered over Iowa.

Temperatures should effortlessly reach the low 60s both Thursday and Friday amid moderate to robust southerly winds that should gust up to 20-35 mph for most locations Thursday night through day break Friday. Flow to turn westerly Saturday with elevated gusts facilitating cold advection that is expected to yield near normal sub-freezing readings by early Sunday. Remainder of the long term to feature snow flurries into Sunday and perhaps a couple snow showers near and north/east of Indianapolis amid a decent fetch off of southern Lake Michigan. Colder Sunday-Sunday night periods to allow modest rebound to slightly above normal readings into the early workweek among precipitation-free conditions.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 555 AM EST Wed Jan 7 2026

Impacts:

- Areas of IFR early. MVFR into the early afternoon

Discussion:

Low level clouds continue across the sites this morning, with KHUF near the edge. Many sites are MVFR with some areas of IFR ceilings. Believe that MVFR will be predominant, so will use a TEMPO for IFR early in the period.

Dense fog looks to be confined to areas where skies have cleared, so will only keep 5-6SM for the sites (who will be protected by the clouds).

Went with the more pessimistic guidance on clearing, but VFR should return by 18Z at all sites.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.