textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Some blowing and drifting snow, especially in rural areas, possible at times through this evening.

- Be cautious of any black ice on roadways tonight as melting snow refreezes.

- Extreme Cold Warning now in effect from 10pm tonight to Noon EST Wednesday, with a Cold Weather Advisory in effect during that same time across far south-central IN.

- Temperatures will not get above freezing through at least next Tuesday.

- Low temperatures near or below zero will be expected each morning through at least Saturday.

- High temperatures through Sunday will only reach the teens to low 20s.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 705 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Skies continue to clear behind a cold front that passed through earlier this afternoon. A few pockets of stratocumulus remain, however, mainly across east central portions of Indiana. Winds remain elevated as well, though they have likewise been decreasing. Wind speeds are expected to decrease further as we head into the night.

Clear skies and diminishing winds set the stage for ideal radiative cooling potential. Combined with a deep fresh snowpack, we have the potential to see the coldest night of the season so far. Many if not all locations across central Indiana are expected to dip below zero. Additionally, many rural areas may dip to -10 or even a bit lower. If clear skies hold and winds become calm, then an isolated reading as low as -20 is not out of the question.

Even with relatively light winds, Extreme Cold Warning and Cold Weather Advisory criteria are still expected to be met.

Some factors that may limit cooling potential include winds not dying down completely. Additionally, some high cirrus is streaming in from the west and may reach parts of Indiana during the night. Despite the thin nature of these clouds, the resulting radiative cooling potential would still be minimized somewhat.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Dry conditions are expected through the short term period as high pressure generally remains in control. Latest surface analysis depicts a cold front pushing through the region with increasing low clouds. A tightening MSLP gradient is also producing breezy conditions. Wind gusts between 25-35 mph are ongoing, but look for these winds to taper off quickly into the evening once high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Minor reductions in visibilities have been reported due to blowing snow. Expect this threat to also diminish once winds subside during the evening. Patchy flurries cannot be completely ruled out over the next few hours as forecast soundings show very marginal moisture within the DGZ while the front passes.

Surface high pressure building in during the evening will promote clearing skies and diminishing winds. This combined with the deep snowpack in place strongly suggest the potential for temperatures to plummet overnight. NBM tends to underestimate diurnal cooling in these setups so blended in the NBM 25th and some high-res guidance to lower temperatures. Lows tonight are expected to range from a few degrees below zero to as low as 11 degrees below zero. Slightly lower temperatures cannot be ruled out as some high-res and deterministic guidance suggest, but uncertainty exist. The main uncertainty is how long it takes for clouds to clear out and how quickly winds taper off this evening.

Even with the slight uncertainty it appears likely temperatures will fall to as low as -10F or so, especially in rural areas. This along with light winds could result in wind chills as low as 20 to 25F below zero. An Extreme Cold Warning is now in effect for much of central IN from 10pm this evening to noon EST Wednesday. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for that same time frame across far south-central IN with winds chills as low as 15 to 20F below zero. South-central IN could potentially reach warning criteria as temperatures plummet, but confidence is slightly lower for these areas due to temperatures warming into the mid 20s this afternoon. Be cautious of any black ice on roadways tonight as melting snow refreezes.

Look for quiet weather on Wednesday with a very cold start to the day. MOdest warming of 850mb temps along with partly cloudy skies should warm temperatures into the teens. Far SW counties may warm to near 20F. Breezy conditions are expected again, mainly near or north of I-70. Max wind gusts will likely be weaker than today, around 20- 25 mph.

LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)

Issued at 249 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Continued Cold and mainly dry weather will be expected on Wednesday night through Tuesday.

Models suggest a continued highly amplified flow across the CONUS from Wednesday Night onward. Strong ridging was in place over the western CONUS, allowing a continued northwest flow across the United States east of the Rockies. A continued flow of cold and dry Canadian air will spill across Indiana during the end of the work week and into next week.

An upper low and trough associated within the flow will push across Indiana on Friday into Saturday. This will allow for a reinforcing surge of cold air across Indiana. A surge of 850mb temps less than -18C are poised to arrive across Indiana on Saturday amid cold north flow. This surge of arctic air will stretch from the eastern Great Lakes to IL and MO and be our main weather feature through the weekend, providing more well below normal temperatures. Below zero or single digit low temperatures will be expected through Sunday morning and highs will continue to only reach the teens to near 20. More cold weather advisories appear in store.

Ridging aloft over the upper midwest this weekend will allow for the development of a strong surface high pressure which is expected to remain across the area through at least Tuesday, featuring a few re- organizations through the period.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 630 PM EST Tue Jan 27 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for 18-22 kt gusts Wednesday afternoon

- chance of MVFR ceilings later Wednesday

Discussion:

West-northwesterly winds are diminishing though some 10-15kt speeds remain. Continued decrease to below 10kt is anticipated by 04z. Winds become west-southwesterly tonight as high pressure passes by. Speeds increase again Wednesday morning as a weak storm system passes to our north. Wind gusts between 20-25kt are once again possible tomorrow.

Mainly clear skies expected tonight with high-level clouds increasing around 12z. Mid/high clouds may become BKN to OVC during the day Wednesday. High-resolution guidance suggests some low-level stratocumulus may develop during the afternoon hours Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST Wednesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057.

Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST Wednesday for INZ060>065- 067>072.