textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cold and dry over the next couple days

- Temperatures warming next week to well above normal

- Rain chances return mid to late week with the potential for a more potent storm system Thursday into Friday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 908 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Surface analysis late this evening shows a large area of cold high pressure stretching from the northern plains Illinois, Indiana and the Ohio Valley. Low pressure was found over the TX panhandle. Skies were mainly clear across Indiana, however a thin, small pesky deck of stratocu was lingering over Indianapolis and I-74, SE of Indy. Aloft, continued quick NW flow was in place due to strong ridging over the western CONUS and a deep low over Quebec. This has been a persistent pattern over several days. Temperatures across Central Indiana were mainly in the 20s with dew points in the teens.

No major changes to the ongoing forecast. Models suggest the large surface high to the northwest will continue to build across Indiana overnight and into Friday. Forecast soundings show a mainly dry column with subsidence. Thus mostly clear to partly cloudy skies will be expected as the lingering stratocu deck should eventually exit. Weak warm air advection is in place overnight as the cold core of the recent air mass begins to retreat northeast. Given this, lows in the upper teens to lower 20s will be expected.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 1253 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight.

Dry and quiet weather is expected for the short term period with the main focus being mid and high level clouds moving southeast across the northern counties and the very low-end potential for flurries this evening into tonight. Synoptically, strong northwesterly flow aloft persists across the Great Lakes region in the aftermath of the exiting low pressure system. Radar imagery continues to show light returns across northern Indiana, but surface observations indicate none of this is making it to the ground due to dry air between the surface and the cloud layer at around 10kft. There are some signs in saturation going into the evening hours, but think that any flurries should stay to the north of the forecast area.

Elsewhere, the last of the low clouds are exiting the southern counties with sparse mid and high level clouds left in the aftermath. Temperatures remain cooler than normal with the strong CAA aloft and weak flow near the surface. With the mostly clear skies and light winds tonight, efficient diurnal cooling should allow for temperatures to drop into the upper teens to low 20s.

Friday.

The stronger flow aloft will gradually begin to weaken going into the daytime hours tomorrow with weak northwesterly surface flow expected through the day. This will help to keep temperatures on the cool-end again with highs in the 30s. A weak wave across the Tennessee Valley may help to bring some high clouds across southern Indiana, but otherwise expect similar conditions to today with fairly sparse and thin high cirrus.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 1253 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Friday Night Through Tuesday.

The long term period begins with a transition towards a more progressive and eventually zonal upper level flow regime. A weak shortwave embedded within the broader northwesterly flow will clip the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday. Model soundings show a lack of notable moisture across central Indiana with the best forcing well to the north of central Indiana which keeps confidence high that any snow will remain well north of central Indiana. Sky cover will remain dominated by mid and high level clouds which will help to keep temperatures at or below normal for Saturday with the pattern beginning to shift into early next week as a ridge builds across the central US.

As the upper level ridge builds, surface flow will become southerly and help to bring warmer temperatures back to central Indiana with good model agreement for highs to climb into the upper 40s to 50s Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday.

Forecast uncertainty begins to increase late Tuesday night into Wednesday as another weak low pressure system moves across the Great Lakes region with a weak surface front stretching south into central Indiana. The low will gradually strengthen through the night into Wednesday but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty if the forcing along the front will be strong enough to produce precipitation before the front exits. Will keep low POPs in the forecast, but think the better threat for precipitation will be across northern Indiana and into Ohio.

A much more potent system then will impact the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday as a low pressure pressure system ejects out of the Rockies and moves towards the Midwest. While there is still considerable spread in the timing and track of the associated surface low, the general consensus has fairly widespread precipitation for central Indiana with the precipitation type being dependent on the final track. Given the antecedent warmth, confidence is much higher in rain being the predominant precipitation type although some ensembles bring the low further southeast and puts the far northwestern counties within the zone of possible snow. Another potent system then looks likely towards the weekend.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1158 PM EST Thu Jan 1 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR conditions overnight at most sites - IFR possible overnight, mainly KBMG

Discussion:

Stratocumulus at various levels continue to meander across the sites, with coverage increasing over much of the area. Ceilings are mainly MVFR at the sites, and expect this to continue overnight. Some IFR ceilings were noted near KBMG, so wouldn't be surprised if some sneak in there.

Guidance tries to clear out the clouds quickly, but not sure of that given recent trends. Kept ceilings through the night with some improvement after 12Z. Confidence is low.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.