textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will continue at times this week

- Temperatures will trend from slightly below normal to near normal through Saturday

- Potential for above normal temperatures (hot and humid conditions) by early next week

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 237 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Early This Morning...

Isolated to perhaps scattered thunderstorms will continue mainly across the far southern forecast area for the next couple of hours as the surface low moves across central Indiana. Storms had been rotating a bit given the shear remaining in the area, but overall odds of severe storms remains low with continuing loss of instability.

Otherwise, scattered showers will increase in coverage some, especially north where forcing will increase in the wrap around behind the surface low.

Today...

Forcing behind the surface low along with an associated surface trough will keep chances for showers around especially east and south. Coverage is expected to be low enough to keep PoPs no higher than chance category. There might be an isolated storm in the far east and southeast where instability lingers, but no severe storms are expected.

Clouds will likely hang around for much of the day, so will lower guidance highs and keep highs mainly in the lower 70s.

Tonight through Tuesday night...

Quiet weather will be the rule during this period with high pressure moving through. Below normal temperatures will continue, with lows in the 50s and highs in the middle 70s to around 80.

Wednesday and Thursday...

An upper wave and weaker surface system will bring a return of chances for showers and thunderstorms. Given expected forcing, kept PoPs in the chance category. Temperatures will remain below normal, but will edge closer to normal values.

Friday and beyond...

A stronger upper trough will interact with a lingering surface front to produce more widespread rain Friday into Saturday. However, there remains some uncertainty in the timing and location of the best forcing. Will go high chance to low likely category PoPs during this period. Moisture levels will increase with this system, so rainfall amounts over an inch are possible.

The surface front will linger in the area Sunday into Monday, so there may be some rain around. Upper heights will be rising as a ridge builds in, so this might help keep coverage low.

If the ridge builds in as forecast, high temperatures will become above normal. Combined with the expected dewpoints, heat indices in the middle and upper 90s are possible by Monday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 626 AM EDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers linger early, mainly at KIND - Mainly IFR ceilings to persist through much of the day - Winds becoming north/northwest with gusts near 20kt

Discussion:

Low pressure will be just east of the sites by valid time, and most of the shower activity will be near and east of it. Can't rule out an isolated shower later today but odds are too low to mention.

Ceilings may bounce around early as the low slowly moves east, but then mainly IFR conditions should settle in for much of the day. VFR is expected to return this evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.