textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect snow across the northeast forecast area today with a mix of freezing drizzle and snow farther southwest

- Temperatures will peak above freezing today, but return to the single digits and teens tonight

- Cold and dry through the first half of the weekend with a warming trend to follow through the middle of next week

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Early This Morning...

Skies were clearing across the western forecast area early this morning, while mid clouds from an approaching system were across northern Illinois. Where skies had cleared and winds had not increased yet ahead of the system, temperatures had fallen into the teens. These readings will rebound some as the mid cloud moves in and southwest winds increase approaching 12Z. Areas farther to the east may also see temperatures dip some as the clearing progresses east.

Today...

The upper wave in the northwest flow, along with a surface cold front, will bring a quick shot of precipitation to central Indiana this morning. Good isentropic lift and some additional lift from an upper jet will work with available moisture to produce the precipitation.

Best moisture looks to be on the northeast side of the system, so highest PoPs (likely category or higher) will be across the northeast half of the forecast area, with lower PoPs to the southwest.

Warmer air aloft and lack of ice in the clouds, combined with below freezing surface temperatures, will lead to some freezing drizzle as primary or secondary precipitation type across a good portion of the area with this system. The trend in guidance has been for the freezing drizzle to get further northeast, with now only the northeast quarter of the forecast area seeing a snow only forecast.

In the far northeast forecast area, snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with amounts diminishing to the southwest. Ice accumulations of a hundredth or two are possible. This will create slick areas on untreated surfaces.

Given expected precipitation amounts, will continue with Special Weather Statements to highlight the potential impacts to the morning commute.

Temperatures will warm to above freezing this afternoon, with highs in the middle and upper 30s expected. Winds will become northwest and gusty behind the cold front this afternoon.

Some isolated snow showers and flurries may develop across the northern forecast area later this afternoon in the cold advection.

Tonight...

Lake enhanced snow showers could move through portions of the forecast area this evening, so went with a flurries/isolated snow shower mention.

Temperatures will be cold once again with the airmass moving in, with low temperatures in the positive single digits to near zero in the far eastern forecast area. Winds will diminish during the night, but wind chills will flirt with Cold Advisory criteria in portions of the extreme eastern forecast area. Will hold off on an Advisory at this time and continue to monitor trends.

Clouds from the lake will keep readings warmer to the west, with lows in the 10 to 15 degree range more common.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Saturday through Monday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the extended as surface high pressure remains in control. Low-level moisture trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion Saturday could support flurries at times though. Low clouds are also likely to persist for much of the day. Guidance depicts an upper wave moving through late Saturday night into Sunday which could support light snow over northern Indiana.

Snow is not expected across central Indiana due to weaker forcing and more marginal moisture return. Light snow cannot be completely ruled out though over far northeastern counties if the system tracks further southwest like some guidance is hinting at. The forecast remains dry for now as any models suggesting light wintry precipitation are outliers. However, will continue to monitor model trends and add snow chances if warranted.

Well below normal temperatures are expected Saturday as a colder airmass associated with the surface high settles in. Look for highs generally in the upper teens to mid 20s and low Saturday night ranging from the single digits across the far east to teens elsewhere. Temperatures are then expected to warm up quickly into early next week thanks to warm air advection. The southwest half of central Indiana could warm into the 40s by Monday.

Tuesday through next Friday...

Expect a more active pattern to begin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a southern stream wave attempts to partially merge with the polar jet to the north. This will allow for anomalous gulf moisture to stream northward ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains. Look for increasing rain chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the system moves in, but exact details remain uncertain. Most guidance keeps the low pressure system weak with only light QPF amounts. Precipitation will likely be all rain to start as southwest flow helps warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s by Tuesday afternoon.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards Wednesday and beyond due to diverging model solutions. Given the large spread in model solutions low POPs persist through the end of the work week with. Ensemble guidance does generally show decreasing heights aloft with upper troughing which supports wintry precipitation potentially mixing in towards late week.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances at times will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Some outlier model solutions are also hinting at the potential for greater rainfall amounts as well which could enhance the threat. This threat will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 559 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Impacts:

- Visibility down to MVFR in -SN within 13Z-16Z at KLAF/KIND - FZDZ possible, mainly at KHUF/KBMG within 13Z-16Z - Wind shift to northwest this afternoon with gusts over 20kt

Discussion:

A system will bring some wintry precipitation to the sites mainly in the 13-16Z time frame, with MVFR ceilings and visibility. Some brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out. Southern sites are the most likely to see some freezing drizzle with mainly snow at the northern sites.

After the wintry precipitation exits this afternoon, MVFR ceilings will persist into the evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.