textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms return late Sunday, with severe weather possible Sunday night

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, wind chills near zero Tuesday morning

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Mid and high clouds were moving across much of central Indiana in northwest flow aloft early this morning. At the surface, high pressure was building in and providing dry low levels.

A narrow band of stronger isentropic lift will move across portions of the northern half of central Indiana this morning, mainly 12Z- 16Z. This lift may produce some light snow in the mid levels. This snow will have to survive very dry low levels though to reach the ground.

Will include a narrow area of slight chance PoPs in the aforementioned time frame for portions of mainly the northern half of the area, with low confidence. Even with temperatures above freezing, wetbulb effects would keep the precipitation type as snow.

Skies will remain partly to mostly cloudy today with mid and high level moisture lingering across the area. Highs will be closer to normal, with readings in the upper 40s north to middle 50s south.

Tonight, upper flow will become southwest ahead of the next system. At the surface, a warm front will move north through the forecast area. The front won't have much forcing with it, so only expect some clouds as it moves across. Winds will remain up as the pressure gradient tightens. Lows will be in the 40s thanks to the warm front, sky cover, and winds.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 248 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Sunday and Monday...

Guidance continues to agree that a deepening upper trough will produce a potent low pressure system that will move into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. 850mb winds in excess of 50kt will pump warmth and moisture into the area Sunday. High temperatures could reach around 70 degrees, with surface dewpoints in the 50s.

Guidance is speeding up the cold front, with the potential for it to arrive in Indiana near 00-03Z Monday and moving out of the area by 06-09Z. The system will have some instability via strong advection of warmth and moisture, but arriving earlier could add a bit more instability.

With strong wind fields in place, it wouldn't take much instability to bring down damaging winds at any rate, so will continue to mention the severe threat Sunday night. Damaging winds will be the primary threat, but a few tornadoes may be possible along the line storms given the shear.

The strong wind fields will lead to another breezy/windy period Sunday into Sunday night, with gusts near 50mph possible outside of any convection. For now believe winds will remain below High Wind Warning criteria, so do not feel a watch is necessary at the moment. A Wind Advisory will likely be needed though.

Wrap around precipitation on Monday will be snow as much colder air moves into the area. Some light accumulation may occur. Temperatures on Monday will only peak in the upper 20s to lower 30s most areas.

Tuesday...

Well below normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday with lows in the teens Monday night and around 20 Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will only be around 30. Wind chills near zero are likely Tuesday morning.

Wednesday and beyond...

A clipper system could bring some light snow to the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. An upper ridge will try and build east into the area late week and may return temperatures to above normal, but there looks to be another shot of cold air in the week 2 time frame.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 637 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Impacts:

- Winds becoming east by 15Z - Low chance for sprinkles/flurries this morning - Potential for non-convective LLWS tonight

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mainly mid and high clouds at times. Surface high pressure building in will bring east winds by mid-morning.

Some weak lift in the mid levels may bring a small area of sprinkles/flurries this morning, but for now confidence in anything reaching the ground is too low to include in the TAF.

Increasing winds aloft may lead to LLWS overnight tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.