textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather today, low chances for rain Wednesday across southern Indiana

- Daily chances for showers and storms return Thursday into next week

- Greatest coverage Thursday night into Friday where isolated flooding will be possible

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Issued at 235 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Overview.

Dry and quiet weather today before rain chances increase in the coming days. Wednesday will be mostly dry across central Indiana, except for a few isolated afternoon storms in the far south. A front is then expected to stall over the region from Thursday through the weekend. This setup will bring daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms. While organized severe weather is not expected, heavy rainfall from slow-moving storms will create a risk for localized flash flooding late in the week and through the weekend.

Today through Wednesday.

Patchy fog is expected to form over the next few hours with generally light winds and dew point depressions dropping to near zero. Coverage is likely to be similar to the last few days with patchy, non-dense fog along with widespread low stratus.

Today the weak surface low that has brought pockets of rain to the area in recent days departs toward the East Coast, allowing weak surface high pressure and drier air to advect into the region from the north. Concurrently, rising mid-level heights and large- scale subsidence will strongly suppress convective development across most of the area. The exception will be towards the Ohio River, which remain positioned along the periphery of the retreating moisture plume where weak low-level convergence may yield isolated, diurnally driven afternoon convection. High temperatures will track near seasonal normals in the mid to upper 80s.

On Wednesday, ensemble guidance shows a mid-level ridge axis shifting over the region. This ridge will begin to suppress southward late in the period as a weak upper-level closed low migrates through the lower Ohio Valley and heights begin to fall over the Great Lakes. However, persistent dry air in the mid- levels and accompanying large-scale subsidence will continue to cap the environment across central Indiana. Any storms will remain tightly confined to the immediate southern forecast area boundary. Seasonable temperatures will continue, with values hovering in the mid to upper 80s.

Thursday Through Monday.

After a quiet stretch, the pattern will begin to transition on Thursday. A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to dig into the Great Lakes, driving a surface cold front southward. This frontal boundary will stall and become quasi-stationary across the Ohio Valley from Friday through Sunday, likely lingering into next Monday. The stagnation is driven by a flat, broad subtropical ridge anchored over the Gulf Coast states, which forces the mid- to upper- level steering flow to run parallel to the surface front, limiting further southward progression.

Within this weak steering regime, successive low-amplitude mid-level shortwaves will propagate along the stalled frontal zone. This continuous upper-level support will interact with a deeply saturated troposphere, as a replenished moisture reservoir yields PWAT values hovering near 2 inches. This high-PWAT environment will favor daily convective clusters and multi-cell arrays from Thursday through Monday. Given weak deep-layer wind shear, organized or long- lived severe weather is not anticipated.

However, strong localized precipitation loading within robust updrafts could generate isolated downburst wind gusts. High precipitation efficiency and the high probability of training cells along the stationary boundary will make localized heavy rainfall and flash flooding the primary threats. High temperatures will be muted by extensive cloud cover and precipitation, generally remaining in the mid-80s. Drier Canadian air will remain locked well to the north, keeping surface dewpoints elevated through the end of the period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 546 AM EDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to IFR vsbys/cigs through 13Z

Discussion:

Patchy non-dense fog is expected to continue for another couple of hours along with a lower chance for low stratus. Any fog/stratus should dissipate by 13-14Z with VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the TAF period. Diurnal cu around 050 is expected to form after 16Z and will then dissipate towards 00Z. Winds will generally be out of the north at 7-12kts today followed by 3-7kts tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.