textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain arriving late day into tonight as tropical remnants move into the Ohio Valley with a likely sharp cutoff in rainfall on the western edge

- Rain ends early Sunday with clouds gradually decreasing into the afternoon

- Near record temperatures Monday and Tuesday

- Rain and storms possible late Tuesday through Thursday

- Coolest air of the season so far next weekend

DISCUSSION (This Evening through Saturday)

Issued at 147 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will lift up the western side of the Appalachians through Sunday with light showers overspreading most of the forecast area later today through early Sunday morning. Upper level ridging will build in immediately as the tropical remnants depart...setting the stage for near record breaking warmth Monday and Tuesday. Rain chances will return late Tuesday into Thursday with the coolest air of the season so far to follow next weekend.

Rest of This Afternoon through Sunday Night

Mid and high level clouds associated with Isaias continue to expand across the region early this afternoon with the leading edge of light rain now into southern Indiana. Temperatures early this afternoon were largely in the 70s.

The primary focus in the near term remains on the remnants of Isaias and impacts to the area. Trends continue to shift the storm track a bit further to the east resulting in lower rainfall amounts for central Indiana with growing confidence that much of the northwest half may see trace amounts or nothing at best.

Drier air is already being ingested into the weakening system with the rain shield approaching from the south gradually diminishing in coverage and intensity. By far the greater concern for heavy rainfall will reside in the central Appalachians where a persistent easterly flow in the lower levels will support upslope flow and enhanced rainfall rates coinciding with the deeper moisture plume. Across the Ohio Valley...rainfall will be reliant on the remnant upper low as it pivots to the northeast tonight. The best chance for widespread light rain will come this evening into the early overnight and focus across the southeast half of the forecast area as an increase in 850mb flow pivots across eastern Kentucky into West Virginia and southern Ohio. An attendant band of convergence will promote more widespread rainfall but with the lack of deeper moisture...amounts will largely remain in the 0.10 to 0.25 inch range along and east of I-69 dropping to nothing in the northern Wabash Valley. Will also pull any mention of thunder for tonight with virtually no instability available.

The passage of the 850mb jet to the southeast this evening will also aid in a period with gusts to 20-25mph focused again primarily across the southeast half of the forecast area. Winds will back and decrease overnight with any lingering rain ending shortly after daybreak Sunday. Lower stratus will develop late tonight and persist through Sunday morning as model soundings show moisture within the boundary layer trapped beneath an inversion. The trend will be for a gradual mixing out of the stratus from the west into the afternoon with much drier air advecting into the region as what is left of Isaias moves away to the east.

Temps...clouds tonight will keep much of the area in the upper 50s. Low level thermals support highs Sunday in the low 70s over eastern counties to near 80 in the Wabash Valley.

Monday Through Saturday

Broad upper level ridging will quickly reestablish across the region by Monday with stronger southwesterly flow developing between a frontal boundary over the upper Midwest and high pressure along the Gulf coast. Strong warm advection will commence and result in well above normal temperatures for Monday and Tuesday across the region. Highs may flirt with 90 degrees in the Wabash Valley on Monday and Tuesday. For KIND...record highs of 86 for both Monday and Tuesday will be approached. The frontal boundary over the Great Lakes will drift south towards the area Tuesday afternoon with the potential for isolated convection increasing in coverage Tuesday night into Wednesday as the front shifts through the forecast area and eventually stalls south of the Ohio River.

An increasingly amplified flow aloft driven by a deep upper low over the Rockies will flatten the ridge over the southeast states while initiating a significant pattern change for the region by late week into next weekend. The aforementioned boundary will remain in a quasi-stationary state just south of the forecast area Wednesday before pulling back north in response to a surface low ejecting out of the Rockies and upper jet phasing. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will increase in coverage across the Ohio Valley as a result Wednesday night into Thursday before a stronger cold front sweeps across the region late week.

In the wake of the frontal passage...a broad upper trough will settle across much of the eastern half of the country as a much cooler airmass will overspread the region with strong cold advection in place. Highs primarily in the 60s on Friday may struggle to get to get out of the 50s over the northeast half of the forecast area next weekend. Confidence continues to grow in the first frost of the Fall for much of the area next Saturday and Sunday nights as lows fall into the 30s.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 707 PM EDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Impacts:

- Easterly wind gusts 15kt to perhaps 20kt at KBMG and KIND this evening - Light rain at times through 06Z, mainly at KIND/KBMG - Ceilings falling to IFR/low MVFR late tonight and persisting into Sunday morning

Discussion:

Light rain will continue to move into the area this evening, mainly at KBMG/KIND. Coverage will decrease around 06Z. Can't rule out some drizzle late tonight, especially at KBMG.

Confidence has lowered on gusts to 20kt, but they remain possible this evening. Ceilings will continue to lower, reaching IFR at KIND/KBMG later tonight and MVFR elsewhere. Ceilings will gradually improve from west to east Sunday, with VFR returning by mid to late afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.