textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries and a few light snow showers this afternoon and tonight across the northeast half of central Indiana

- Swath of light snow northeast of I-74 Friday morning with light accumulations possible. Freezing drizzle may mix in briefly to west of I-74

- Cold and dry late Friday through the first half of the weekend with a warming trend to follow through the middle of next week

- Temperatures warm above freezing next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

A weak mid level wave within broad NW flow is leading to widespread cloud cover and scattered snow showers across the northern half of central Indiana this afternoon. These overcast skies are maintained through the rest of central Indiana, but the snow flurries should keep to along and NE of the I-74 corridor. A few tenths of an inch is possible over the Kokomo region as their low level saturation duration is maximized.

Overnight, the mean low level wind will shift to the SW ahead of a much more prominent mid level low. This, along with continued cloud cover will keep temperatures level tonight, with lows tomorrow morning only a few degrees colder than highs this afternoon. Lift ahead of the mid level vort max will lead to widespread precipitation across the NE half, beginning around 12Z over Kokomo, and pushing into the Indianapolis region around 13 to 14Z. A majority of the p-type will consist of snowfall, but there will likely be a significant warm nose within the aforementioned SW flow, of which will approach and potentially exceed the freezing mark on the SW flank of the precipitation shield, leading to a corridor of freezing rain. This is currently expected to be somewhere near a line from Greencastle to Bloomington, but ensemble spread on placement of this narrow corridor still has significant variance. Total ice accumulation within this narrow swath should remain at or less than 0.05". To the west of this swath, very light freezing drizzle is possible as the mid level saturation starts to depart.

As far as snow totals, there is likely going to be a modest gradient from along the I-74 corridor to far NE portions of central Indiana due both to QPF differences and lower SLRs the closer you get to I- 74. Peak snow totals are likely to be around 2 inches in the Muncie to Winchester region where the heaviest banding sets up, with snow totals of 0.5" or less near Indianapolis.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

The long term will start off with one last shot of arctic air before temperatures start to trend warmer. Much of next week will see near to above normal temps.

Central Indiana will sit under upper NW flow, bringing in an arctic airmass to start the weekend with Saturday morning lows in the upper single digits to mid teens and warming to upper teens to upper 20s. At the surface, high pressure will move through with surface flow starting out from the north and early morning to midday lake enhanced flurries could be possible.

From the start of the new week to midweek, upper flow will be more zonal with ridging at times while southerly flow will largely dominate at the surface. Temps will trend warmer with highs in the 40s to mid 50s probable midweek. Dry weather will start the week off but by midweek into the end of the week, models are suggesting a more active pattern to bring additional precipitation to the region. While there is much uncertainty with the details at this time, will have to monitor how trends evolve particularly with timing and temperatures as that will impact the type of precip we get. For now rain seems plausibly dominate if we stay on the warm side of the passing systems, but a mix of precip will also be possible.

One hazard to watch for in the long term will be the possibility of ice jams forming as temperatures warm and flooding concerns along rivers increase. If we end up with a decent amount of rain late week, this could further exacerbate river flooding hazards.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 629 PM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Impacts:

- Ceilings deteriorating to MVFR this evening...IFR pre-dawn - Visibility down to MVFR/IFR in -SN within 12Z-18Z at KLAF/KIND - FZDZ likely at KHUF/possible at KBMG within 12Z-18Z - Mainly IFR VIS Friday morning-midday, low-MVFR possible late day

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions early this evening will lead to deteriorating ceilings from north to southwest overnight...with slowly increasing coverage of MVFR leading to abrupt arrival of IFR decks pre-dawn. Likely brief improvement to at least MVFR Friday morning at KBMG/KHUF before more widespread IFR/low-MVFR thru midday-afternoon hours.

Corresponding overall weaker system will bring period of -SN within 12Z-18Z, possibly mixed with FZDZ at KBMG and likely at KHUF...with -SN dropping visibility to MVFR and perhaps predominantly IFR at KIND/KLAF 13Z-16Z, with VFR VIS expected to return to all terminals by 18Z. Lowest confidence in flight rules at KHUF where CIGs may vary widely as well as possibly SCT out within 06Z-15Z...with mainly VFR expected at KHUF 12Z-15Z.

Winds will veer throughout the period...gradually from southerly early this evening, to southwesterly by 09Z...and quickly from west around 15Z Friday to northwest by 18Z. Lighter flow sustained around 5-10KT into most of Friday morning, will strengthen as the system departs with gusts up to 22-25KT after 18Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.