textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry through midweek with mix of rain and snow chances returning late Thursday through the weekend, uncertainty remains

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder temperatures expected

SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

A long but relatively narrow band of altocumulus stretches from northern Minnesota southeastward to eastern Kentucky. This band of cloud cover is associated with weak isentropic lift along the western edge of a NW-SE oriented baroclinic zone. Satellite imagery shows gradual narrowing of the band, though it has been fairly stable through the afternoon so far. Continued thinning is likely overnight as warm air advection wanes a bit and moves northward.

These clouds have kept temperatures down this afternoon compared to guidance. The temperature at IND at 2pm is 24 degrees. Outside the altocu, temperatures are warmer by a few degrees both north and south. Low temperatures tonight should be less impacted by the clouds due to gradual dissipation, though a few thick patches should linger here and there beyond midnight. Combined with a light east- southeasterly breeze, radiative cooling potential is not expected to be ideal. However, it should be efficient enough to allow for pockets of low teens and a few isolated single digit readings. In areas that maintain cloud cover, lows in the high teens to near 20 are more likely.

Continued clearing is expected on Monday as surface high pressure builds in. Abundant sunshine combined with the effects of continued weak warm air advection aloft should bring above- freezing temperatures for most. Highs in the mid to upper 30s, with 40s across our far SW, can be expected. NBM guidance tends to be on the upper-end of the overall guidance suite, sitting at the 75th percentile. We've trended a bit lower towards the 50th percentile, especially across the northeastern parts of our CWA. Deeper snowpack and a residual colder air mass should keep temperatures more muted in these parts. Further southwest, deeper into the warm air advection and with less snowpack, we'll see the highest likelihood of being on the warm side of guidance.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 231 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Milder temperatures are a welcome expectation during the coming week. Opportunities for precipitation will return, mainly from late week onward, though uncertainty remains fairly high at this point.

The synoptic pattern looks to deamplify significantly during the week, with upper level flow becoming significantly more zonal for much of the week and even some weak upper level ridging possible at times. Complex evolution of upper level disturbances and a frontal zone that may set up to our south later this week, along with guidance discrepancies that grow significantly with time, lead to a lower confidence forecast with respect to precipitation, which will keep chances low to middling at best during the latter portion of the forecast for the most part, and uncertainty with respect to type.

The early week will be dry under the influence of strong surface high pressure to our east. A dry cold front will pass through the area Tuesday, with the tail end stalling to our south at least temporarily. Convergence along this boundary and a rapidly weakening upper level disturbance moving into the southern states may promote the development of precipitation, but trends continue to shift this southward, to where the majority of guidance leaves central Indiana dry.

Late week into next weekend, models diverge significantly on their handling of an incoming upper level trough and resultant cyclogenesis, as well as associated potential for precipitation. The latest guidance suite leaves the area under the influence of a fairly strong surface high, with precip chances held off until the very end of the period or into mid next week, but it will take the blend some time to catch up.

Confidence is somewhat greater that temperatures, especially during the first half of the week will be near to above normal, perhaps well above normal on Tuesday, with the remainder of the week settling somewhere in the range of seasonal normals, which, at least for Indianapolis are in the upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows currently. That said, blend deterministic guidance is well into the upper half of its envelope, which appears to be a result of struggles with the impact of what remains a decently substantial snowpack and how quickly it may be overcome by what modest warm advection will take place. Forecast temperature errors in the long term, if any, will likely be on the warm side.

The warm up early next week along with rain chances will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but most guidance keeps rainfall amounts relatively light at this time. The potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 554 PM EST Sun Feb 8 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

GOES19 shoes a thin mid level cloud deck stretching across Central Indiana. These clouds were exiting central Indiana to the east. To the west, mainly clear skies were found amid very weak and poorly organized surface low pressure over the plains. Forecast soundings tonight and Monday suggest continued very dry lower levels amid weak and dry southeasterly surface flow.

Thus continued VFR with the occasional passing high to mid level cloud.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.