textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms likely late Saturday, with severe weather possible Saturday night into Sunday.

- Much cooler temperatures on Monday with highs in the 70s.

- Unsettled weather with near normal temperatures next Tues-Thurs.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 319 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Forecast is quiet as high pressure builds eastward from the MS valley into the OH Valley. Winds will become light and variable this evening as a result. Mostly clear skies along with mild temperatures and dry air with dewpoints mainly in the 50s will make star gazing in rural areas exceptionally good tonight.

Saturday...

Convection tonight over the central Plains will move into the Ozarks by Saturday morning. An associated MCV will move into the Lower OH valley early-mid afternoon. Expectation is that mid level clouds and light precip will overspread roughly the southern half of central Indiana during the afternoon associated with this system. Surface front presently becoming stationary over KY will begin to lift northward in response to pressure falls associated with departing high pressure as well the approaching MCV. Forecast soundings show just enough instability /MUCAPE 500-1000 J/KG/ to warrant TS over far SW portions of the forecast area, so have added low chances for that during the afternoon.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

A second stronger shortwave will push SE across the northern plains into the upper Midwest Saturday Night. An associated cold front will reach a line from DTW to OKC by 12Z Sunday. Thunderstorms are expected to be numerous forming longer lines to the west of central Indiana Saturday afternoon along the frontal boundary. Activity moves into central Indiana generally after 04Z Sunday with relatively meager instability to work with MUCAPE from 1000-1400 J/KG. Given the timing and lack of stronger instability the updated Day 2 outlook taking the Slight Risk out of central Indiana seems prudent. Main severe threat with any storms will be damaging wind gusts to 60 mph, and possibly large hail, but with weakening mid level flow with eastward extent and consequently weakening EBS to under 30 kts, the hail threat looks very marginal.

The surface front is expected to cross central Indiana during the day. The GFS is more of an outlier showing the front crossing dry during the afternoon. A result of overnight/early morning convection will be to stabilize much of the boundary layer. Questions remains as to how much if any storms develop along the front namely along and SE of I-69 during the early afternoon as the BL destabilizes. If storms can develop as the Euro and NAM suggests, there is a small risk of severe weather given stronger deep layer shear. Threat for storms/severe will be done by 20Z as the front shift east into KY/OH.

Sunday night into Monday...

Pleasant late Spring weather will develop across central Indiana in the wake of the frontal boundary with temperatures below normal with highs 70-75 and lows in the mid-upper 50s.

Tuesday through Friday....

Another unsettled period should unfold as several weak shortwave moves SE along the broader long wave trough centered near Hudson's Bay Canada. Timing of threat for showers and storms during this period is tenuous at best and recent NBM highlighting 80 POPs for Wednesday evening is very aggressive.

Despite the uncertainties in timing precip during the extended, temps should remain near seasonal norms with no indication of another heatwave next week. In fact, model consensus shows that another front is expected late week with temperatures returning to below normal.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 706 PM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance for showers and isolated storms Saturday afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Surface high pressure will bring light winds tonight. Some patchy ground fog cannot be ruled out at all but KIND, but odds are too low to mention in the TAFs.

High clouds will increase tonight then mid cloud during Saturday. There is the potential for some scattered showers and isolated storms Saturday afternoon, mainly south. Confidence and expected coverage are too low to put in anything other than VCSH. Better chances for convection arrive after 06Z Sunday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.