textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect Mostly clear and cool weather tonight. Sunny and warmer weather is expected on Monday. - Highs will warm into the 60s on Tuesday before temperatures cool down significantly mid-late this week.

- The next best chance for rain will be late Wednesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 220 PM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows low pressure over Ontario with a trailing cold front across the Great Lakes to IL and MO. This was a dry front as no precip or cloud cover was found near the front. A ridge of high pressure was found over the plains. GOES19 shows sunny skies across Indiana. Water Vapor shows strong ridging in place over the Rockies with a trough in place over the Great Lakes. This was resulting in NW flow aloft and subsidence was seen IN and IL. Dew points across Indiana were in the mid 30s.

Tonight...

Quiet and cool weather will be expected tonight. The northwest flow is expected to remain in place aloft as the ridging over the Rockies pushes east and subsidence continues to build across Central Indiana. The surface high pressure system to the west will also build east into Indiana. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column. Thus clear skies will be expected. Some Patchy fog, particularly in rural or low lying areas cannot be ruled out as dew point depressions may reach 3F or less. Look for lows in the middle and upper 30s.

Monday through Tuesday...

Quiet and dry weather is expected to start the work week. Upper ridging is expected to reside over Indiana and the Great Lakes on Monday, providing little in the way of forcing. Meanwhile the surface high pressure will remain in place across the area. Again forecast soundings show a dry column. With southwest winds expected highs in the lower 60s should be reached.

The cool and dry weather will continue on Monday night through Tuesday Night as northwest flow aloft slowly become a bit zonal by late Tuesday Night. A strong area of surface high pressure will remain in place across the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys along with the deep south. Little to no moisture will be available through this time and forecast soundings continue to show a dry column. Westerly winds through the period will allow for a a continued slow and small warming trend with warmer lows in the low to mid 40s on Monday Night and highs in the middle 60s on Tuesday.

Wednesday through Sunday...

Weather conditions across the Ohio Valley late this week through the weekend will largely be dictated by the expected development of an amplified mid to upper ridge across the Western CONUS. Ensemble guidance is in large agreement for a very amplified ridge to develop along the Intermountain West Tuesday through Friday of next week, of which will have cascading impacts to central Indiana. Initially, upper level height depletion within modest CVA upstream of the ridge will aid in a deepening trough over the Mississippi Valley by Wednesday. This will likely lead to lee cyclogenesis downstream of central Rockies late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still modest ensemble spread on the specifics of this surface low, but there is general agreement on the low nearing maturity over the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley sometime late Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Specific impacts to central Indiana will vary depending on low placement and magnitude, but regardless of outcome, general probability of precipitation will increase throughout Wednesday. Given strong dynamics of the mid to upper pattern, along with potential for veering flow aloft ahead of the low, there is some potential for severe weather next Wednesday. That said, confidence is not high at this time with still a wide variety of potential outcomes and thermodynamic solutions.

Continued amplified ridging upstream of the aforementioned low will likely lead to a strong push of cold air into the Ohio Valley on Thursday as the low deepens and prolonged NW flow develops from the Canadian Plains into the region. Ensemble are still fairly spread on the axis of this cold air, but in general 850mb temps are expected to drop well below freezing of which should push highs into the 40s with lows in the 20s Thursday night through Saturday. Strong temperature differences between the lake and low level air mass will likely lead to, a few weakly forced snow/rain showers over central Indiana Thursday night and Friday, but QPF is expected to be minimal.

Late Saturday through Sunday, the longwave pattern will being to progress with WAA entering the Upper Great Lakes region as NW flow impinges on the anomalous heights. This should result in a gradual warming and drying trend Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1116 AM EST Sun Nov 8 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period

- Wind gusts near 25 knts possible this afternoon.

- Potential for fog with MVFR visibilities at the outlying TAF sites late tonight into Monday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. High pressure to the northwest will build across Indiana today and tonight. Strong subsidence will remain in play, preventing ceilings or low clouds.

Overnight dew point depressions may fall to less then 3F. Thus patchy MVFR fog cannot be ruled out.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.