textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect snow across the northeast forecast area today with a mix of freezing drizzle and snow farther southwest

- Temperatures will peak above freezing today, but return to the single digits and teens tonight

- Cold and dry through the first half of the weekend with a warming trend to follow through the middle of next week

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 816 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Precipitation associated with a fast-moving clipper system is overspreading central Indiana. Observations have shown graupel as the predominant precipitation type from about Lafayette to Indianapolis as of 8am. This is corroborated by the appearance of radar data out of KIND. A more cellular appearance is noted, and ACARS soundings out of IND also show a small positive area where saturation and forcing is concentrated. Additionally, a warm nose is noted below this layer of saturation which may lead to some riming, further reducing the prevalence of pure snow. It is important to note that this warm nose is above freezing at about 1km, which could lead to freezing rain potential this morning as the column fully saturates.

Going forward, we see upstream trends of a transition to snow on the northeastern side of the precipitation shield (a more smooth fuzzy appearance to radar reflectivity). Areas that see mostly snow will experience light accumulations up to about an inch. Amounts should be limited due to the fast-moving nature of the system, though rates could briefly become moderate to heavy since weak instability is present within the DGZ across these portions of the area. Potential travel impacts including slick and hazardous roadways are possible.

The situation becomes a bit tricky further west where warming aloft is more prevalent. Continued warming aloft may allow for the potential for graupel to mix with or transition to a period of freezing rain or freezing drizzle. The most likely locations for this would be along the western edge of the current precipitation shield. ACARS soundings hint at dry air near the surface and observations confirm this with ceilings of 10,000 feet at Terre Haute. This may keep the potential for freezing drizzle/rain confined to a fairly narrow corridor from Indianapolis to Bloomington and points westward where saturation is deeper. Some reports of freezing rain are already coming in across the Indianapolis area. A light glaze of ice is possible this morning which could lead to hazardous driving conditions at times.

Given the speed of the clipper and radar trends, we expect the precipitation to begin ending around 15z across the Indianapolis area and potentially as late as 17z further east.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Early This Morning...

Skies were clearing across the western forecast area early this morning, while mid clouds from an approaching system were across northern Illinois. Where skies had cleared and winds had not increased yet ahead of the system, temperatures had fallen into the teens. These readings will rebound some as the mid cloud moves in and southwest winds increase approaching 12Z. Areas farther to the east may also see temperatures dip some as the clearing progresses east.

Today...

The upper wave in the northwest flow, along with a surface cold front, will bring a quick shot of precipitation to central Indiana this morning. Good isentropic lift and some additional lift from an upper jet will work with available moisture to produce the precipitation.

Best moisture looks to be on the northeast side of the system, so highest PoPs (likely category or higher) will be across the northeast half of the forecast area, with lower PoPs to the southwest.

Warmer air aloft and lack of ice in the clouds, combined with below freezing surface temperatures, will lead to some freezing drizzle as primary or secondary precipitation type across a good portion of the area with this system. The trend in guidance has been for the freezing drizzle to get further northeast, with now only the northeast quarter of the forecast area seeing a snow only forecast.

In the far northeast forecast area, snow amounts of 1 to 2 inches are expected, with amounts diminishing to the southwest. Ice accumulations of a hundredth or two are possible. This will create slick areas on untreated surfaces.

Given expected precipitation amounts, will continue with Special Weather Statements to highlight the potential impacts to the morning commute.

Temperatures will warm to above freezing this afternoon, with highs in the middle and upper 30s expected. Winds will become northwest and gusty behind the cold front this afternoon.

Some isolated snow showers and flurries may develop across the northern forecast area later this afternoon in the cold advection.

Tonight...

Lake enhanced snow showers could move through portions of the forecast area this evening, so went with a flurries/isolated snow shower mention.

Temperatures will be cold once again with the airmass moving in, with low temperatures in the positive single digits to near zero in the far eastern forecast area. Winds will diminish during the night, but wind chills will flirt with Cold Advisory criteria in portions of the extreme eastern forecast area. Will hold off on an Advisory at this time and continue to monitor trends.

Clouds from the lake will keep readings warmer to the west, with lows in the 10 to 15 degree range more common.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 308 AM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Saturday through Monday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected early in the extended as surface high pressure remains in control. Low-level moisture trapped beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion Saturday could support flurries at times though. Low clouds are also likely to persist for much of the day. Guidance depicts an upper wave moving through late Saturday night into Sunday which could support light snow over northern Indiana.

Snow is not expected across central Indiana due to weaker forcing and more marginal moisture return. Light snow cannot be completely ruled out though over far northeastern counties if the system tracks further southwest like some guidance is hinting at. The forecast remains dry for now as any models suggesting light wintry precipitation are outliers. However, will continue to monitor model trends and add snow chances if warranted.

Well below normal temperatures are expected Saturday as a colder airmass associated with the surface high settles in. Look for highs generally in the upper teens to mid 20s and low Saturday night ranging from the single digits across the far east to teens elsewhere. Temperatures are then expected to warm up quickly into early next week thanks to warm air advection. The southwest half of central Indiana could warm into the 40s by Monday.

Tuesday through next Friday...

Expect a more active pattern to begin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a southern stream wave attempts to partially merge with the polar jet to the north. This will allow for anomalous gulf moisture to stream northward ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains. Look for increasing rain chances late Tuesday into early Wednesday as the system moves in, but exact details remain uncertain. Most guidance keeps the low pressure system weak with only light QPF amounts. Precipitation will likely be all rain to start as southwest flow helps warm temperatures into the 40s and 50s by Tuesday afternoon.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards Wednesday and beyond due to diverging model solutions. Given the large spread in model solutions low POPs persist through the end of the work week with. Ensemble guidance does generally show decreasing heights aloft with upper troughing which supports wintry precipitation potentially mixing in towards late week.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances at times will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Some outlier model solutions are also hinting at the potential for greater rainfall amounts as well which could enhance the threat. This threat will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1235 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to near-IFR ceilings this afternoon into tonight - Scattered snow showers developing this evening continuing into tonight - NNW winds around 15kt gusting to 25kt this afternoon into tonight, diminishing after 06z.

Discussion:

Northerly flow has resumed with MVFR stratus overspreading all of central Indiana. Ceilings range from 1200 to 1800 feet. Ceilings temporarily dipping into IFR territory is not out of the question through tonight. Improvement is expected on Saturday as surface high pressure returns.

Scattered snow showers are anticipated this evening as an unstable cold front moves southward. Additionally some enhancement off of Lake Michigan may allow this activity to continue into the night. VCSH was added at all terminals, with a tempo group to capture the timing of a more concentrated band of snow showers along the front.

Gusty north-northwesterly flow will persist through the evening hours. Frequent gusts to 25kt will be common today. Winds diminish tonight as surface high pressure builds in from the west. A period of light and variable winds is expected on Saturday once the high is directly overhead.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.