textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain or drizzle possible over southern parts of the area through late afternoon

- Rain becoming widespread on Tuesday with chances for thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall through Thursday

- Much warmer late week into the weekend with near record warmth Friday

- Additional threats for rain and thunderstorms through early next week will increase the risk for flooding across central Indiana

SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

The morning snow is in the process of melting early this afternoon as temperatures have risen into the mid and upper 30s over most of the forecast area. There remains very light precipitation likely in the form of drizzle across south central Indiana. Thick stratus persists south of I-70 with breaks in the deck further north. Skies are increasingly sunny north of a Crawfordsville to Noblesville line and temps have risen into the lower and mid 40s as a result across the northern Wabash Valley.

Drier air associated with high pressure to the northeast is doing its part to attempt to erode the northern flank of the cloud deck across north central Indiana. This should remain in a largely steady state over the next couple hours prior to expanding north into the early evening. A warm front extending from north Texas into the Tennessee Valley will shift north overnight and drift into the southern half of the forecast area on Tuesday. Rain will become increasingly widespread through the first half of the day Tuesday as our transition to a much more active and wetter pattern commences.

As mentioned above...far northern portions of the forecast area may actually enjoy a couple hours of bright sunshine but the lower stratus is already expanding north and should overspread the entire forecast area by this evening. Ceilings will lower late today into tonight in response to a deepening plume of low level moisture into the region from the south. Cannot rule out pockets of drizzle or light rain over southern counties through late afternoon as soundings support currently but the gradual saturation of the column up to about 750mb should largely shut that off by early evening.

A small threat for light rain lingers overnight across far southeast counties but expect the expansion of rain north will hold off until closer to daybreak and into the morning Tuesday. Isentropic lift will increase in the 290 and 295K levels as the warm front lifts into the southern part of the forecast area with increasing winds through the boundary layer continuing to advect progressively deeper moisture north. Rain will become widespread across the forecast area by Tuesday afternoon then persist into the middle of the week as the frontal boundary becomes quasi-stationary and a tightening baroclinic zone develops just north of the front. More will be discussed on this in the Long Term section below.

Temps...temperatures will not fall much from afternoon readings tonight...generally holding in the mid and upper 30s. Highs Tuesday will range from the upper 40s north to near 60 degrees in south central Indiana as the warm front lifts up into the region from the south.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)

Issued at 200 PM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

The upper level pattern across the country will transition from a split flow quasi-zonal regime to a more amplified pattern highlighted by a deep and persistent trough organizing across the southwest U S by late week and a ridge centered off the Southeast coast. Southwest flow developing in between with tap into moisture both from the Gulf and the Pacific and spread into the Ohio Valley into the first half of next week. With a stagnant frontal boundary oscillating across the area... periodic surface waves tracking along it and ...an unsettled and wet pattern highlighted by multiple opportunities for rain and thunder will impact the region through the next 7 to 10 days.

HEAVY RAIN THREAT

Rain will be ongoing Tuesday evening as a warm front drifts north into the forecast area. The boundary will remain across central Indiana ahead of a surface wave that will lift into the Great Lakes on Thursday. There remains some inconsistency on the specific location of the heaviest rainfall but expectations currently have the axis aligning in the vicinity of the I-70 corridor. Precipitable water values will rise to between 1.25 to 1.50 inches which would be almost 300% above normal for early March. The expansion of a low level jet nosing into the region south of the warm front will advect deep moisture for early Spring into the Ohio Valley as well. Confidence is growing in at least an inch of rainfall by Thursday afternoon for the entire forecast area with 2 to 2.5 inches possible within the axis of heaviest rainfall. These amounts support the potential for localized flooding but considering the overall antecedent dry conditions...the rain through Thursday likely serves a pump primer for greater flooding issues this weekend into early next week.

The front will shift back north by late week into the weekend as a more potent surface low tracks into the upper Midwest on Saturday. This will bring an increased threat for rain and convection late Friday through the first half of the weekend with the potential for an additional 1 to 2 inches across central Indiana. With the rain midweek...localized/river flooding will become more prevalent this weekend. Streamflows are low...but the increasing confidence in 2.5 to in excess of 4 inches of rainfall over much of the forecast area through Sunday introduces the threat for at least minor flooding developing on the main stem rivers and streams late this week into the weekend.

SEVERE THREAT

The influx of anomalously warm and humid air for early March with a frontal boundary lingering in the area will enable weak instability to develop on Wednesday and then more notably late Friday into Saturday. For Wednesday...instability will be largely elevated with stronger convection carrying a potential threat for hail focused across the southern half of the forecast area. With much warmer temperatures late Friday into Saturday...surface based convection is more plausible with the potential not only for hail but also stronger wind gusts as well. This remains a conditional threat but one to monitor. Heavy rain and flooding remain the primary concern over the next several days but the threat for severe convection is non-zero.

TEMPERATURES

Temperatures will largely remain above the low and mid 60s from Thursday into early next week. Low to mid 70s are possible on Friday and may see temps rise into the upper 70s across far southern portions of the forecast area. The record high at Indianapolis is 75 from 1973 on Friday and could be threatened. Warm and unsettled conditions are likely to continue well into the second week of March as well.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1147 AM EST Mon Mar 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR stratus reestablishing at all but KLAF through the afternoon and evening - Drops to sub-IFR ceilings late tonight into Tuesday - Rain showers overspread the terminals Tuesday morning

Discussion:

The earlier wintry precipitation has departed off to the east late this morning...leaving a relatively thick canopy of stratus. Ceilings have lifted at all but KBMG in the wake of the earlier system passing but expect ceilings to resettle at MVFR levels over the next several hours. KLAF remains an exception as the edge of the VFR cloud shield will hover in the vicinity of the terminals for the next few hours before beginning to lift back north late day.

Ceilings will continue to lower tonight as deeper moisture is transported into the region. Widespread IFR and lower ceilings are expected by the predawn hours Tuesday and will likely fall further in rain showers throughout the day. E/NE winds at around 10kts are expected through this evening...then decreasing an veering to the southeast by Tuesday morning.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.