textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries through early this evening

- Light snow possible across northern parts of central Indiana Sunday evening

- Wind chills as low as -15 to -10 Sunday night and Monday night

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 852 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

A departing shortwave within a deep positively tilted upper trough is producing weak snow showers over SE portions of the area this evening. This should continue over the next few hours, with additional hours of flurries as the wave departs to the east. An additional shortwave embedded with the same trough will pass to the north later overnight. This likely will only result in added cloud cover over the northern half of the area, but a few flurries cannot be ruled out in the Lafayette to Kokomo region.

There was a large area of convective snow showers between the two waves this afternoon and evening, but diurnal cooling has removed the weak instability across this area, with convective showers mostly all dissipated as of 0145Z. Still, will keep a 10-20 PoP across the NW to account for the low chance possibility of a convective snow shower over the next couple hours.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cold afternoon in progress with pockets of flurries and an occasional lighter snow shower moving across the northern half of the forecast area. 19Z temperatures remained nearly steady in the lower and mid 20s with gusty westerly winds keeping wind chills in the teens.

An upper level trough continues to amplify across the region this afternoon aided by an upper low pivoting east across the mid Mississippi Valley. The upper low will become absorbed within the parent trough this evening but the overall cyclonic flow aloft will continue through the rest of the weekend with a stronger mid level vort arriving late Sunday with the potential for light snow across northern portions of the forecast area.

Current ACARS sounding from KIND shows a strong inversion present just above 800mb with steep lapse rates beneath it. Despite a lack of appreciable moisture...this has been and will likely continue to be enough to produce scattered flurries for the remainder of the daylight hours focused mainly across the northern half of the forecast area. Stratus will remain as well into the evening with the potential for clouds to break up tonight as surface ridging expands into the Ohio Valley and the inversion weakens. Westerly winds will continue to gust to 25 to 30 mph through the early evening before dropping back to 10 to 15 mph overnight.

Model soundings show the inversion attempting to reestablish albeit in a weaker state within the boundary layer during the predawn hours and continuing into Sunday morning. Expect lower pockets of stratus to build back into the region from the north as a result with sun gradually diminishing into the early afternoon. Much of the day will be quiet but cold despite the onset of weak warm advection in advance of the aforementioned upper level wave and an associated Arctic front poised to move across the forecast area Sunday night. A broader area of flurries with light snow as well will expand into the northern Wabash Valley ahead of the front late day Sunday then quickly shift east Sunday night.

Temps...highs for today have largely been reached with slowly falling temps through sunset. Lows tonight will fall into the 10 to 15 degree range across the forecast area. Low level thermals support lower 20s to upper 20s from north to south for highs Sunday.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 301 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

An ongoing large upper level trough will persist over much of the CONUS and Canada through the start of the new week with a few short waves moving through it. An associated surface low will be exiting the Great Lakes region which could start the forecast period with some light snow before more influence from a surface high brings drier air to the area for the rest of Monday through the end of Tuesday. This troughing pattern will continue to bring the cold, windy air mass to the area, allowing for Monday to be our coldest day of the forecast period. Expect highs Monday to be in the teens with lows both during the morning and the following night to see single digits. Gusts of 20-30 mph during this time will bring wind chills from 0 degrees down to around -15 at times, so bundle up to not be so daunted by the chill.

Another short wave a surface low will warm temperatures up briefly, as well as bring slight PoPs, before temps drop again for the remainder of the long term. Yet another low looks to bring a better chance of precipitation for the end of the week and likely followed by another surge of cold air. At this time, expecting to see a mix of precip types, although it is not entirely clear yet in what form that will fall. For now sticking with rain transitioning to snow but will need to keep an eye on trends in the thermal profile.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 632 PM EST Sat Jan 17 2026

Impacts:

- A few hours of MVFR late tonight into the early morning

- Light snow showers with potentially MVFR visibility early tonight

Discussion:

A broken to scattered stratocu deck continues to push through the area around 4-5kft this evening. Within this, light snow showers will be possible with brief 5-7SM visibility reductions possible. Outside of this VFR conditions within brisk westerly flow around 8- 12kt is expected through 07Z.

A mid level trough with MVFR cigs attached will quickly pass to the north between 06-12Z this morning. Best chance for very light snow and MVFR cigs will be at KLAF, but there is a chance for MVFR cigs at KIND as well. After this passes, winds will remain brisk, but turn to the WSW/SW for the remainder of the day with a scattered to broken deck around 7kft. Occasional wind gusts to 20kt will be possible tomorrow afternoon, but confidence in occurrence is too low to include at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.