textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning in effect across northeast central Indiana from 5AM Through 8PM today; Wind Advisory in effect elsewhere

- Showers and storms return Sunday, with severe weather possible Sunday night.

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Luck will run out today for those who were hoping for a quiet period of weather.

Potent low pressure will move through the lower Great Lakes today. The gradient between this low and high pressure across the southern USA will create windy conditions for central Indiana.

Aloft, 850mb winds of 50kt to 70kt will move across the area this morning, diminishing some during the afternoon.

Gusts around 30kt have already been noted upstream with the pressure gradient, and as mixing occurs later this morning with heating, some of the stronger winds aloft will bring down higher gusts. Cold advection, especially in the northeastern forecast area, will help mix down the stronger winds as well.

Guidance continues to show the potential for 50kt gusts in the northeastern forecast area, and this makes sense given the above. Will continue the High Wind Warning northeast with a Wind Advisory elsewhere. 09Z might be a bit early for reaching criteria, but moving the time at this point isn't really worth it.

Winds will diminish as mixing diminishes and the pressure gradient relaxes, so 00Z still looks like a good time to let the warning/advisory expire. Winds will continue to diminish through the evening, with gusts gone by the overnight.

Regarding precipitation, lift may generate some patchy light rain or sprinkles across the northern forecast area before 12Z this morning, but dry lower levels will help lower odds of any reaching the ground.

Temperatures will peak in the 50s today and fall into the lower 30s tonight.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 253 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Saturday will be quiet with surface high pressure in control. Warm advection may produce an isolated shower Saturday night across the far northern portion of the area.

Sunday and Monday...

A deepening upper trough will produce a potent low pressure system that will move into the lower Great Lakes by Monday morning. 850mb winds in excess of 50kt will pump warmth and moisture into the area Sunday. High temperatures could reach around 70 degrees.

Current timing for the cold front moving through central Indiana is during the night Sunday night. This will help keep instability low, but the impressive wind fields will keep a threat for strong to severe convection going through the night.

Wrap around precipitation on Monday will be snow as much colder air moves into the area. Some minor accumulation may occur on elevated surfaces. Temperatures on Monday will only peak in the 30s most areas.

Gusty winds will exist outside of any precipitation Sunday through Monday, and a Wind Advisory may be needed at some point during this period.

Tuesday...

Well below normal temperatures can be expected Tuesday with lows in the teens Monday night and around 20 Tuesday night. Highs Tuesday will only be around 30.

Wednesday and beyond...

A couple of weak systems in northwest flow aloft could bring some light precipitation on Wednesday and then again Thursday night. Temperatures will moderate, potentially reaching the 60s by Friday.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 100 AM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts increasing through the morning, reaching 39-45kt by 15Z. Gusts gradually diminish during afternoon

- Period of non-convective LLWS between 07-15Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. Mid clouds will persist into mid-morning then clouds will diminish. A few sprinkles are possible before 12Z.

Strong winds aloft will create LLWS conditions early, then as the pressure gradient tightens and mixing occurs in the daylight hours of Friday morning, strong gusts will reach the surface. These will gradually diminish during the afternoon as winds aloft weaken and the pressure gradient relaxes. Gusts around 25kt will likely continue beyond 00Z Saturday though.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ021-030-031- 038>042-048-049-057.

Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ028-029-035>037- 043>047-051>056-060>065-067>072.