textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable through early Friday

- Rain chances return late this week with additional chances for precipitation next week

- Much warmer this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to near 90F

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1045 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Very quiet and seasonable weather expected over the next 24 hours as high pressure becomes centered over the region. Latest satellite imagery shows clear skies over Indiana and the majority of the midwest due to strong subsidence under the incoming high and a much drier airmass associated with it. Winds around 10-15mph tonight with gusts to 20 mph at times will be on a diminishing trend through the overnight hours as the surface pressure gradient gradually weakens. In fact, northerly winds during the day tomorrow should remain fairly light and may go calm at times. Sunny skies will allow for strong boundary layer heating, however below normal low level temperature anomalies may only support highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees. Enjoy the relatively "cooler" weather as summer like temperatures arrive this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 315 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

This afternoon through Thursday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected through Thursday as upper ridging and surface high pressure are centered across the region. Diurnal mixing along with a modest pressure gradient between a departing low pressure system and the approaching high has promoted breezy conditions today. Look for these winds to quickly subside this evening once the PBL decouples. Efficient radiational will allow temperatures to fall into the low to mid 40s overnight. A few locations across the far N/NW may briefly fall into the upper 30s. Temperatures then quickly warm back up well into the 60s to near 70F in some spots.

Friday through Saturday night...

Guidance depicts a more active pattern developing towards the end of the week once upper ridging shifts east. A few low amplitude disturbances traversing the region and sufficient moisture advection supports increasing rain chances. The first shortwave moves in on Friday with a better chance for convection on Saturday ahead of a more organized upper wave. Warm moist advection and daytime heating should promote destabilization through the day. Meanwhile, a low amplitude shortwave moving through supports strengthening deep-layer flow. Widespread severe weather is unlikely, but this setup could promote a few strong storms. There is the potential for destabilization to be significantly limited by early day convection so confidence on the severe weather remains low.

Sunday onward...

Upper ridging building in will likely keep weather conditions quiet from Sunday through much of the day Monday. Increasing warm air advection during this period should allow for temperatures to warm well into the 80s. Dewpoints are also going to rise well into the 60s making it feel muggy. Rain chances quickly return late Monday into Tuesday and onward as additional shortwaves move through the region. Long range guidance depicts deeper gulf moisture returning northward with these systems which should support the potential for storms at times.

Severe weather is not expected at this time due to the more favorable deep-layer shear and instability remaining further west, but this will continue to be monitored closely. Temperatures are expected to remain above normal through Tuesday before returning to near seasonal on Wednesday.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 801 PM EDT Wed May 13 2026

Impacts:

- Northwesterly gusts up to 20kts through 01Z this evening

Discussion:

VMC to persist for the rest of the TAF period as high pressure becomes centered overhead tomorrow. Satellite imagery shows diurnal cumulus already waning resulting in mainly clear skies overnight. NW winds diminish through the evening to under 10 kts then further diminish Thursday as the pressure gradient significantly weakens under the area of high pressure. No cig or vis concerns.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.