textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog development possible tonight followed by warmer temperatures Friday with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s

- Low chance for a mix of rain/snow Saturday night, no impacts expected

- Wintry mix possible Sunday Night through early Monday morning. Details uncertain at this point, but confidence is building for an event that will include rain, snow and mixed precipitation across Central Indiana.

- Heavy rainfall potential increasing for late next week.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

This afternoon through Friday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected with surface high pressure remaining near the region. Current satellite imagery and observations depict an area of mid level clouds moving in across northern portions of the area from Illinois. The increasing clouds are tied to a subtle wave moving through aloft, but dry air in the low levels will keep most areas dry. A few sprinkles cannot be completely ruled out over northwestern counties if sufficient top- down saturation occurs.

Look for clouds to clear out overnight once the subtle waves departs. Mostly clear skies along with light winds is then expected to result in some fog development, especially in more climatologically favored locations. Any fog that develops should mix out Friday morning. A strengthening MSLP gradient between the departing surface high Friday and a low pressure system moving across southern Canada will lead to strong southwesterly winds. Wind gusts between 20-30 mph are possible, primarily over the northern half of the area during the afternoon.

Increasing southwesterly flow on Friday will promote warm temperatures ranging from the upper 50s to possibly near the mid 60s in some spots.

Friday night through Sunday...

Model guidance depicts a cold front moving through late Friday night into Saturday morning with very limited moisture return keeping weather conditions quiet. There is a large temperature gradient for highs on Saturday as the cold front could briefly stall during the day allowing areas further south of the boundary to warm up. At this time, forecasted highs range from the upper 40s to low 50s over northern counties to as warm as the low 60s in the far south.

Low precipitation chances around 20 to 40 percent return Saturday night into early Sunday morning as a mid-upper level wave passes through. Temperatures falling to near or below freezing Saturday night supports the potential for some light snow to mix in. However, exact details remain uncertain at this time. Warm ground temperatures should mostly limit any impacts even if light snow does occur.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Thursday)

Issued at 258 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Strong low pressure is expected to develop over central Canada this evening before rapidly moving eastward on Friday. The system's attendant cold front passes through Indiana sometimes early Saturday. A cold air mass and associated ~1040 mb surface high drop southward behind it, settling over the Great Lakes. The cold front, while strong, does not progress much further south than the Ohio River. As such, an east-west oriented baroclinic zone likely becomes established across our area by the end of the weekend.

As upper-level flow becomes quasi-zonal, a shortwave ejecting out of the Colorado Rockies races eastward along the baroclinic zone. Ensemble guidance is in decent agreement showing widespread precipitation breaking out over the Plains ahead of this feature. However, surface cyclogenesis appears muted, with upper-level forcing and overruning being the primary sources of lift.

Thermal profiles ahead of the approaching system are favorable for snow. However, the lower 3 km of the atmosphere is modeled to be very dry. This may delay precipitation onset somewhat, which looks to begin sometime late Sunday or early Monday. Guidance has been trending weaker and further south over the past few days. This is likely because a weak system is pressing against such a strong surface high. In these circumstances, it does not take much to suppress these weak systems further south than guidance initially thinks. As of right now, the majority of guidance still brings accumulating snowfall to most of central Indiana. An area of mixed precipitation is favored across southern Indiana, closer to the baroclinic zone.

Heading into next week, a pattern change appears increasingly likely. Ensemble guidance shows quasi-zonal flow becoming more amplified with time. Deep troughing looks to develop out west, with ridging and strong high pressure over the eastern US. This allows the predominant flow pattern to become southwesterly over Indiana. Such a pattern favors warmer and wetter than average conditions. Global teleconnections support this, with both the North American Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) trending positive, along with the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) trending negative.

The signal for significant rainfall is becoming stronger for the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Both the GEFS and EPS show anomalous precipitable water values flowing into the region, with multiple systems emerging from the western trough. Ensemble mean QPF is high with values between 2 to 5 inches through next weekend. Some deterministic runs show even higher amounts.

It is worth noting that any single deterministic model run should be taken with a grain of salt. However, the pattern and signal within ensemble guidance support heavy rainfall potential. Should such a scenario play out, then river flooding may become possible late next week onward. The primary axis of heavy rain may still shift north or south, so stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1235 PM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Impacts:

- Wind direction will be variable through this afternoon, becoming S/SW tonight into Friday

- Fog development possible late tonight with MVFR visibilities, mainly near HUF/BMG

- Southwesterly wind gusts between 18-26 kt possible Friday PM

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the period with weak surface high pressure across the region. With high pressure moving into the vicinity, winds will be variable at times through the afternoon. Winds will shift back to the south overnight and remain light.

Fog development is possible tonight, but uncertainty remains. It appears HUF/BMG have the best chance to see fog so included a TEMPO for MVFR visibilities from 09-13Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.