textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cooler weather through Friday with warmer temperatures returning this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms return late Sunday through early next week.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 301 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Today through Friday night...

Strong surface high pressure building in favors quiet weather conditions during the period. Current surface analysis early this morning depicts a cold front pushing into central Indiana from the north filtering in cooler-drier air. Dewpoints across northern portions of the state have already fallen well into the 50s. Look for dewpoints within the forecast area to also fall well into the 50s over the next few hours. Diurnal mixing later today may even drop dewpoints into the upper 40s. This much drier airmass along with highs generally remaining in the 70s due to cold air advection will feel very comfortable compared to the past few days.

Expect an upper wave approaching from the west on Friday to result in increasing mid-high clouds. Most guidance suggest subsidence induced dry air from the surface high should inhibit any precipitation chances from the weakening disturbance so the forecast remains dry. Look for temperatures to remain cooler than normal with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s through the end of the work week.

Saturday through early next week...

Long range guidance depicts weak surface high pressure remaining the dominant weather feature for much of the weekend providing mostly quiet weather conditions. Aloft, an amplified ridge centered near the Rockies with northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes Region should allow for a few shortwaves to pass through the region. These disturbances along with deeper moisture advecting into central Indiana will return low rain chances to the forecast at times late Sunday into early next week.

Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence in exact details towards the end of the period. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but ensemble guidance suggest that at least moderate destabilization will occur each afternoon Sunday into early next week. This along with enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwaves could support a threat for severe weather. Uncertainty will remain high until models become better aligned.

Warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned disturbances should warm temperatures well into the 80s to lower 90s in some spots Sunday and Monday. Dewpoints returning to the low-mid 70s may also lead to peak heat indices around 100 degrees.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 131 AM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Impacts:

- Brief northerly gusts expected between 18-21 kt through 11Z, mainly near IND/LAF

Discussion:

Expect VFR conditions through the TAF period with strong high pressure building across the region today. Wind gusts between 18-21 kt will be possible through 11Z, mainly near LAF/IND. Look for wind direction to remain northerly during the period.

Convective temps on Wednesday should be reached allowing some SCT VFR CU.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.