textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- WIND ADVISORY in effect 700 AM - 700 PM today...for westerly winds sustained at 20-30 MPH...with gusts 40-50 MPH

- Flurries today, mainly near/north of I-74...with a few snow showers possible this afternoon far-north/northeast counties

- Wind chills in the teens tonight, Thursday night, and Friday night

- Potential for light accumulating snow Saturday before a gradual changeover to rain by early Sunday

- Much colder air to open December with additional opportunities for wintry weather

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 301 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

*WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT 7AM-7PM TODAY FOR GUSTS TO 40-50 MPH*

Today...

Potent early winter wave crossing the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes today will maintain 992 mb surface low pressure over northern Michigan. This system's cold frontal zone will continue to cross central Indiana through pre-dawn into morning hours...while 1030 mb polar high pressure aligned down the Plains slowly builds east. Gradient between these features will peak over the Midwest during the day today, with westerly flow within 15-21Z sustained up to 20- 30 MPH, with gusts up to 40-50 MPH for all but far south-central to southeastern zones where gusts to 35-40 MPH will be most likely.

Predominate westerly headings will direct majority of Lake Michigan fetch to Michigan/far northern Indiana...although stronger forcing embedded in belly of parent trough crossing Indiana through midday will encourage widely scattered SHSN over the state's northern third, and flurries down to the I-74 corridor. Can't rule out brief visibility reductions for our northern and especially far northern counties....with overall flurry activity dissipating by early evening.

Temperatures will have fallen to the mid to upper 30s by 700 AM... with readings nearly steady through daytime hours. While far southern zones may still be around 40F through early afternoon... bigger story will be resultant wind chills in the low to mid-20s for most areas under mainly overcast stratus.

Tonight...

Central Indiana to remain in gradient between storm slowly departing into southeastern Canada and amplified ridge's axis remaining near the Ozarks, however slightly retreat of northern system's dumb- belling forcing to Great Lakes should create a brief quasi-split mid- level flow over local region which will help partially-diminish winds to more typical robust gusts of 15-30 MPH after midnight.

Stratus should scatter out and lift to mid-levels amid lack of forcing, and perhaps surrender to cirrus over several southwest counties through the overnight. The region's coldest night since perhaps Veterans Day will be on tap as readings fall through the 30s during the evening and into the low to mid-20s by sunrise Thursday...with wind chills falling as low as 8 to 20 degrees. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the short term is 47/31.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 300 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

The first piece of the significant pattern change towards colder and more unsettled conditions has arrived and will continue to step down into early December. The initial impact will be noticeably colder air into the first part of the weekend including Thanksgiving but as broad meridional upper level troughing takes hold over much of the eastern half of the country this weekend into next week...a series of storm systems will impact the Ohio Valley with increasing potential in multiple opportunities for wintry precipitation including snow.

Thursday through Friday

Strong low pressure will continue to pull away from the region into eastern Canada on Thursday...but remain close enough to maintain a tighter pressure gradient at the surface. Winds remain brisk for Thanksgiving Day but peak gusts will be lower than what is expected today. Despite increasing sunshine on Thursday it will be cold with highs in the 30s. Temperatures may struggle to rise above freezing over northern counties and the continued brisk winds will keep wind chills in the 20s. Friday will be cold in the lower and mid 30s but otherwise should be the best day of the extended holiday weekend for any outdoor activities with sunny skies and much lighter winds.

Friday Night through Sunday

A much more active regime will develop for the weekend as a broad upper level trough settling across the eastern part of the country. A potent short wave will dive out of the Pacific Northwest on Friday then pivot quickly into the region by Saturday evening. Moisture will increase in advance of a surface wave poised to eject out of the Rockies Friday night then kick E/NE into the Great Lakes by Sunday morning.

Precipitation will arrive across the region as early as late Friday night and persist into Saturday. Extended model guidance continues to struggle on the details with a broad range of scenarios in play. That being said...the overall model suite is trending towards snow as the primary precipitation type on the front end of the system Saturday. Greater uncertainty in precip type develops as the day progresses that will largely depend on the orientation...speed and intensity of the wave aloft and how quickly warm air advects north as the surface low pivots into the mid Mississippi Valley. Trends support rain mixing with snow from the south beginning Saturday afternoon with an eventual transition to rain over most of the forecast area by early Sunday morning as low pressure likely tracks to the northwest of central Indiana and temperatures rise through the night. Rain will gradually diminish on Sunday in the wake of a cold front. Lingering scattered light rain or snow showers are possible by Sunday night.

The primary takeaway message for late Friday night and Saturday is that there will be a period with light accumulating snow and at least some impacts to travel prior to a transition to predominantly rain Saturday night into early Sunday before ending. Lower snow to liquid ratios are expected leading to a wet and slushy snowfall. Specific snowfall amounts remain uncertain at this point but trends support 1 to 2 inches north of I-70 with less than an inch further south. Stay tuned for updates.

Highs remain in the 30s then rise to a range from the mid 30s to lower 40s the first half of Sunday before falling as the day progresses.

Sunday Night through Tuesday

After a brief break in the unsettled weather...precipitation will return for early next week as an inverted surface trough lifts into the Ohio Valley and some phasing of upper level jet energy develops. Even less confidence exists with this system but potential for a wintry mix or snow is increasing as the coldest air of the season advects into the region. Highs remain largely below freezing Monday and Tuesday and across the northern half of the forecast area for Wednesday. Lows will be in the teens. High confidence remains in a cold and largely unsettled pattern continuing for the region through the first half of December with additional opportunities for snow and wintry weather.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1250 AM EST Wed Nov 26 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings to prevail through at least late today - Westerly winds increasing pre-dawn...peak gusts today 30-40KT - Flurries today, mainly near KLAF

Discussion:

Cold front will cross central Indiana terminals by 08Z tonight, with brief improvement to VFR possible behind boundary, especially south of I-70...before MVFR ceilings return by 12Z. Broad area of high- MVFR/low-VFR stratus the rule after 18Z, with slow improvement from southwest to northeast. Flurries and possibly a few snow showers are likely at KLAF and possible at KHUF/KIND, with brief minor VIS reductions possible this afternoon.

Main story of the TAF period will be staunch increase in winds following imminent frontal passage...with flow veering from SSW to W through 10Z. Winds by 12Z to be sustained at at least 15- 20KT...with gusts to at least 29-34KT...and winds overall strongest at KIND/KLAF. Westerly winds to peak today within 15Z-21Z...sustained at 19-25KT, and gusts up to 34-42KT. Surface flow to gradually diminish this evening...under rising/scattering VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067-068.