textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong wind gusts up to 40 mph through mid afternoon

- Wind Advisory 8AM through 6PM near and north of I-70

- Steady or slowly falling temperatures in the 30s today

- Colder for the weekend, with scattered light snow possible Sunday

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 215 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure over western Illinois. A cold front extended from the low across eastern Illinois, then turning south to southern IL and eastern Arkansas. GOES19 shows clouds and convection ahead of the front over Central Indiana, however precipitation was weakening and becoming more scattered as it quickly exited east. Clear skies were found over IL within a dry slot while more cold air advection stratus was found over MO and IA. Water vapor shows a deep upper low over SW Ontario while a secondary upper low was found over IA. Water vapor shows subsidence over IL working ahead of this low over IL and MO.

An windy weather day is in store today. The upper low over IA is expected to progress across the Great Lakes today, deepening in the process. Accompanying the low, a strong LLJ in excess of 50 knts is expected to pass across Indiana thus morning before exiting this afternoon. No precipitation will be expected with this feature as strong subsidence will be in place across the state and forecast soundings show a dry column through the day. Stratocu due to cold air advection is expected as the soundings do show that limited, thin, lower level saturated area beneath a steep inversion aloft. BUFKIT momentum transfer suggests guts around 40 knts possible late this morning and early afternoon as the LLJ, moves across the state. Morning clouds may prevent full mixing, but clearing is anticipated by the afternoon. This should allow some gusts, but at that time, the strongest winds aloft are already moving out. So, everything not lining up perfect, but wind gusts to around 40 mph will still be possible through the afternoon. An advisory may be needed. At minimum a SPS will be issued to address the impacts of the windy day expected.

Strong cold air advection will be expected today. The cold front is expected to blast across Central Indiana this morning along with the previously mentioned LLJ. 850mb temps near 8C early this morning will fall to near -4C by 00Z. Thus steady, or slowly falling temperatures through the 30s will be expected for most of the day. Current temperatures early this morning in the 50s will likely be the high temperatures for the calendar day and will fall into the upper 30s around 12Z.

Tonight...

Colder and quiet weather will be expected tonight. Surface Low pressure will remain over the eastern Great Lakes while high pressure builds over the plains. A ridge axis extending east from the high is expected to extend across Indiana. This will keep dry air and subsidence in place within the lower levels. Aloft a quick westerly flow remains in place. Some dynamics within that flow are suggested to arrive toward 12Z Saturday, which could introduce some high clouds aloft. Forecast soundings do suggest a dry column through the night. Overall, expect a mostly clear and cold night. Given the cold air advection, lows in the middle 20s will be expected.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 215 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Saturday...

Cold high pressure is expected to be west of Indiana on Saturday, continuing to allow cold, northwest flow spilling across Indiana from the northern plains. The upper flow through the day is expected to be changeable with a trough deepening over the plains, poised to push across our state on Sunday. Thus for now will keep things cold and dry with highs near 40.

Sunday...

Our next best chance for precipitation will be on Sunday. The previously mentioned upper trough is expected to push across Indiana. Meanwhile the lingering surface low over the eastern Great Lakes is suggested to push a trough axis across Indiana as the low re-organizes and deepens off the east coast. Moisture will remain a problem for this system as southerly flow never really develops and dew points look to remain in the 20s. Forecast soundings do suggest saturation but pwats are only around 0.30 inches. Soundings remain below freezing, thus precipitation type will be snow, but due to limited moisture, any amounts should be minimal. Best chances will be across the northeast parts of the forecast area where the combination of forcing and moisture appear maximized. Highs in Sunday will only reach around 30.

Monday through Wednesday...

In the wake of the deepening and departed low pressure system off the east coast, strong surface high pressure is expected to build across Indiana through the first part of the work week. The broad area of high pressure is expected to stretch from Ontario, across Indiana to the Gulf Coast, providing dry but mainly cold weather. Aloft during this time the upper pattern shifts, becoming highly amplified, with strong ridging over the western United states and a deep trough in place across the east coast. This will allow for NW flow and lee Side subsidence across Indiana for Monday and Tuesday, before the pattern begins to flatten on Wednesday. Of note, as the high pushes east by Wednesday, stronger warm air advection is suggested to begin, allowing highs that day to return to the upper 40s to near 50.

Wednesday Night and Tuesday...

A stronger upper trough is suggested to be pushing toward Indiana on Wednesday night and into Thursday. This feature looks to be accompanied by a surface low and cold front that will push across Indiana. Thus chances for rain and perhaps a thunderstorm will be be needed at those times.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 533 AM EST Fri Feb 20 2026

Impacts:

- Westerly wind gusts to 40kts through the afternoon

- MVFR Cigs in the AM will improve to VFR in the afternoon.

Discussion:

Other than a brief window where MVFR cigs are expected, conditions will remain VFR through the TAF period. Skies will gradually fill in this morning with a few hour window of MVFR cigs possible. Skies will remain mostly cloudy through 00Z before beginning to clear again. Westerly wind gusts up to 30kts will become more frequent after 14Z with peak gusts near 40kts at times, especially at IND and LAF. These stronger gusts will become less frequent towards the evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for INZ021-028>031- 035>049.