textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued significant cold expected through at least Saturday, with highs largely in the teens, lows just above to several degrees below zero, and wind chills frequently well below zero

- Potential for very light snow along and south of the U.S. 50 corridor this evening into the overnight hours.

- Temperatures are unlikely to reach the freezing mark before mid week next week at the earliest

- Next best chance for precipitation will be Tuesday Night and Wednesday.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

A shortwave centered over the central plains will shift E-SE towards the lower MS valley tonight and into the TN valley and the Southern Appalachians on Friday. Meanwhile a stronger shortwave will rotate southward out of southern Canada into the Great Lakes/upper MS valley tonight into Friday. At the surface a large area of high pressure will continue to extend from southern Canada into the Southern Great Lakes, while a weak area of low pressure over the Southern Plains moves towards the southeast CONUS through Friday.

Despite some FGEN located in the dendritic growth zone expected to skirt far southern portions of central Indiana tonight associated with the MS valley shortwave trough, very dry air below 8kft will likely lead to nothing more than flurries. Have opted to keep a slim corridor along and south of U.S 50 with a slight chance of light snow, but QPF was removed from the fcst grids.

Copious mid-high cloud cover will gradually thin across northern portions of the forecast area later this evening, before filling back in later tonight in the region of upper divergence ahead of the next stronger shortwave moving south over the upper MS valley. Mid- high clouds look to stay across southern portions of central Indiana through the night. Meanwhile, veering of the 925-850 mb flow over northern indiana will slowly push lake effect low clouds into far northern zones. There will likely be enough clearing in northern portions of the forecast area to fall to their overnight mins before 06Z, before steady or slow rise afterwards with the increasing cloud cover. Generally light winds (5 mph or less) combined with higher min temps (+6 to -2 F) than we've seen the last 2 nights owing to the cloud cover, will support min wind chills staying above the -10F cold weather advisory criteria. However, widespread wind chills in the negative single digits will still be noteworthy enough that a SPS will be issued for tonight into mid-morning tomorrow.

As the stronger shortwave progresses southward into the Great Lakes, northerly flow will increase through the BL. Expecting increasing lake clouds to spread southward through the forecast area as a result. Forecast soundings show fairly strong CAA aloft as 850 temps fall to as low as -19C by 00Z Saturday. Steepening low level lapse rates combined with some lake enhancement moisture flux may support some very light snow showers. For now, have opted to add flurries into northern portions of central Indiana during the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 311 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Cold continues through the long term but relief, albeit quite relative, is finally in site with highs returning to the 20s next week. This weekend will provide one last blast of frigid air and the chance for flurries at times. Highs will be in the teens Friday and Saturday with lows near 0. A short wave passing through will produce just enough wind to potentially drop wind chills back into advisory criteria Friday night so one last headline may be needed. The wave could also bring chances for flurries periodically this weekend, but moisture will largely be lacking thanks to blocked Gulf moisture and nearby surface high pressure.

Going into the new week, the highly amplified trough is expected to finally break down, becoming more zonal and allowing for a warmer southerly flow at times. Parts of the area could even creep into the 30s around midweek with lows in the teens. Models remain in decent agreement of another trough passing through that could bring additional snow midweek, potentially accumulating snow. Beyond this system, the upper pattern hints at a cold airmass stretching back into the area.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 557 PM EST Thu Jan 29 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for MVFR ceilings Friday afternoon

Discussion:

Mainly mid and high clouds will continue at times tonight. Some short term guidance has been showing areas of dense fog developing overnight near KIND, but given expected sky cover and very low dewpoints at the moment, feel that odds of fog are too low to mention.

Lower clouds will move in Friday afternoon. Ceilings will be low VFR or potentially high MVFR. Some flurries may accompany these, but no visibility impacts are expected at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.