textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow showers this evening into tonight, brief reduction in visibility and slick spots possible. Minor accumulations from a dusting to a half of an inch.

- Temperatures will peak above freezing today, but return to the single digits and teens tonight. Patchy black ice and slick spots possible by morning.

- Cold and dry through the first half of the weekend with a warming trend to follow through the middle of next week

- Light mixed precip is possible Sunday

- Additional multiple light mixed precip is possible Tuesday night through Friday

- Ice Jam development remains a concern next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

A potent clipper system has passed to our southeast this morning. After a round of mixed precipitation and snow across central Indiana, low stratus has overspread the region. Winds have become northwesterly behind the clipper with occasional gusts between 20- 30kt. Despite the northerly flow, temperatures have not dropped. In fact, temperatures have risen slightly to the middle 30s.

However, this will not last as an Arctic cold front associated with a separate system over southern Hudson Bay drops southward. Low- level instability within the strong cold air advection allows for numerous snow showers this evening and into tonight. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement showing an initial wave of snow showers along the front between 22z-04z. Some of these snow showers could be moderate at times given modest low-level instability (15-25 J/Kg 3CAPE). Briefly reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions are the primary threat with these. Snowfall accumulations should be light, from a dusting to a half of an inch.

Once the initial wave of snow showers moves south of our area, high- resolution guidance shows continued light snow shower activity continuing through the night. This is associated with lake- enhancement off of Lake Michigan. Though snow showers should gradually diminish with time as surface winds relax (resulting in reduced fetch off of the lake), flurries could persist into the early morning hours. Stratus associated with this lake flow could persist a bit longer into the afternoon.

As for temperatures, it's all downhill once the front arrives this evening. Readings quickly drop through the 20s and into the teens by morning. Wind chills near zero are possible at times despite the gradually diminishing winds. Any melted snow/sleet/mix front earlier likely re-freezes by morning which could lead to patchy black ice and slick spots. Thankfully, the brunt of the Arctic air mass passes mainly to our east. Surface high pressure quickly builds in tomorrow allowing for some sunshine and a bit of a rebound. Though not above freezing, high in the mid 20s are likely with light winds.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 330 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Saturday Night through Sunday Night...

A weak shortwave will move SE into the Great Lakes/Upper MS valley through the beginning of the extended. With it increasing mid-high level clouds will develop Saturday evening. This should prevent temps from bottoming out from the cold afternoon highs on Saturday. Elevated WAA will occur late Sat night into Sunday above a slowly retreating Arctic High pressure providing sufficient support for low-mid level saturation. A stripe over light snow will be possible by Sunday morning in the far eastern counties associated with the strongest FGEN. Further west, NAM forecast soundings indicate some potential for a light freezing drizzle event starting Sunday afternoon lasting into with the saturation layer entirely -6C or warmer. Meanwhile the GFS shows the potential for a mix light sleet/snow event At the moment amounts should generally be very light as forcing is weak.

Monday through Tuesday... Upper level ridging will build eastward from the plains. Strong 850mb WAA with GEFS and EPS anomalies around 8-10 C above a slower retreating near surface cold layer (thanks to the snowpack) will lead to a classic setup for widespread low clouds and fog. For now, have really bumped up cloud coverage Monday night into Tuesday. Have also bumped NBM temps down somewhat Tuesday given the expected cloud feedback.

Tuesday night through next Friday...

Expect a more active pattern to begin late Tuesday into early Wednesday as a southern stream wave merges with the polar jet to the north. This will allow for increasing gulf moisture to stream northward ahead of a developing low pressure system over the Plains. Look for increasing rain chances Wednesday as the system moves in, but exact details remain uncertain. Most guidance keeps the low pressure system weak with only light QPF amounts. Given the low level NE flow around a high pressure over the Great Lakes, a light ice event appears possible.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases towards Thursday and beyond due to diverging model solutions. Given the large spread in model solutions low POPs persist through the end of the work week. Ensemble guidance does generally show decreasing heights aloft with upper troughing which supports wintry precipitation potentially mixing in late week. The 12Z deterministic Euro is the largest outlier with QPF suggesting a sleet/ice storm potential next Thursday.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances at times will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Some outlier model solutions are also hinting at the potential for greater rainfall amounts as well which could enhance the threat. This threat will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 556 PM EST Fri Feb 6 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR to near-IFR ceilings through 16Z - Light snow through 04Z, little to no vsby restrictions - Briefing NNW wind gusts to 20kts through 04Z

Discussion:

MVFR to briefly IFR cigs will continue through the overnight hours before improving to VFR as skies begin to clear after 16Z. At least some low clouds will persist through the end of the TAF period. Light snow showers will continue through 04Z but little to no accumulations or vsby restrictions are expected at this time. There may be a few additional northwesterly wind gusts to 20kts, but expect these gusts to be few and far between, especially after 02Z. Winds then relax to around 4-8kts after 06Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.