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KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for much of Central Indiana through 9 AM Tuesday; Bitterly cold temperatures and gusty W/SW winds will produce wind chills as low as -15 at times today and tonight

- Subzero lows possible Thursday and Friday nights with continued cold temperatures through the weekend

- Light snow possible late Saturday into Sunday as a winter storm passes to the south

SHORT TERM (This Evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Cold and windy conditions will continue into the evening as temps this afternoon max out in the teens with westerly wind gusts of around 20-30 mph. A cold weather advisory remains in effect across the northern 2/3rds of the forecast area through tomorrow morning with minimum wind chills as low as -15 forecasted. At the surface, high pressure is settling into the Ohio and Tennessee Vallies throughout the short term, with surface flow becoming more southwesterly by tomorrow morning and southerly by the evening. Temperature wise, the cold remains tonight with lows in the single digits expected but will then warm some tomorrow with highs in the 20s to near 30 thanks to the start of WAA.

As the high pressure moves in, the tight pressure gradients generating the gusty winds today will loosen up some tonight and thus allowing gusts to drop off some this evening. The center of the high will be located to our south, so winds won't entirely drop off and still could see gusts up to 20 mph periodically tomorrow, while sustained winds should remain below 10 mph.

Decent confidence in very minimal PoPs through tomorrow but as is typical in these cold temperatures, which doesn't need much energy to produce snow, can't completely rule out a few flurries forming within lower passing clouds.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)

Issued at 257 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Ridging aloft will remain largely anchored along the West Coast through the weekend maintaining broad troughing across much of the eastern half of the country. This will maintain colder and at time bitterly cold air across the region. Extended model guidance continues to favor a higher impact winter storm this coming weekend but with low confidence on if more substantial precipitation will make it as far north as central Indiana.

Tuesday Night Through Thursday

A brief relaxing of the flow aloft to a more zonal regime will combine with return flow on the back side of high pressure to enable milder air to return for midweek and bring the warmest temperatures in the extended as highs rise into the upper 30s and lower 40s Wednesday. Light precipitation will accompany a frontal boundary that will pass through on Wednesday with the potential for both rain and snow.

Slightly colder air will follow in the wake of the front for Wednesday night and Thursday...but the passage of a secondary front on Thursday will bring a fresh surge of polar air into the Ohio Valley for late week.

Thursday Through Monday

Bitterly cold air will expand into the region Thursday night and Friday in wake of the second front with potentially the strongest surface high of the season so far poised to dive out of the Canadian prairies. The strength and orientation of the high will play a pivotal role in storm development and evolution for this weekend across the eastern U S and will discuss that further below...but high confidence exists in the arrival of this polar origin airmass for late week bringing temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below normal Friday and Saturday with highs only in the teens and subzero lows possible.

Extended models continue to highlight a phasing of polar and subtropical jets for the weekend aiding in a broad swath of overrunning precipitation between the bitterly cold airmass with high pressure to the north and low pressure tracking along the Gulf coast. Confidence remains higher in the bulk of the heavier precipitation remaining south of central Indiana as extended models have largely trended towards a stronger surface high positioned to the north over the Great Lakes...a prime location that would support suppressing the storm system. That being said any delay in the arrival of the surface high or its arrival at a weaker strength would allow for a northward shift to the storm track.

The most plausible solution at this point is light snow during the second half of the weekend with overall light accumulations as the bulk of the heavier precipitation remains to our south. However confidence remains low at about 120-144 hours out. The takeaway message is to be aware of the potential for a higher impact winter storm across much of the eastern U S including parts of the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys late Saturday into Sunday. Stay tuned with details to come over the next few days.

The high will gradually begin to break down into early next week but the pattern continues to favor colder than normal temperatures for much of next week with signs of another intrusion of cold air as the week progresses.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 648 PM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Impacts:

- No flight restrictions expected

Discussion:

Brisk westerly winds are expected to continue for the next few hours, with sustained winds maintaining above 10kt through 04Z. Winds will then diminish slightly to between 6-8kt for the remainder of the period but stay out of the west through the morning, with a slight shift to the SW tomorrow afternoon

Some lower clouds have been persistant over KLAF this evening, but have started to break with KLAF currently reporting a SCT deck around 3kft. This will continue to improve overnight, with only passing cirrus expected at times. Tomorrow, additional 6-7kft ceilings are expected.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057.