textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued threats for thunderstorms with heavy rain and possibly localized flooding through Saturday; an isolated strong storm with damaging winds cannot be ruled out

- Warmer and drier again next week, though with more modest humidity than experienced the first week of the month

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

TODAY INTO SUNDAY -

Some patchy fog and low clouds will be possible near daybreak into the morning hours today, with a relative lull in convective activity early today.

An upper level wave will move slowly through the region late today into Sunday, though models differ in their handling and intensity of the disturbance. A continued moist airmass will promote at least modest destabilization, and one or more clusters of storms will be possible, primarily later today into tonight though the threat will lessen and shift southward with time, and be focused primarily along remnant boundaries from previous convection, limiting the predictability. The bulk of convective activity should be south of the area by Saturday night.

An isolated strong to severe threat cannot be entirely ruled out, though hydro concerns will likely be slightly more pressing as the area has been decently wet in recent weeks, and the aforementioned plentiful moisture combined with what may be fairly slow storm motions outside of more organized clusters could present a localized flash flood threat - WPC excessive rainfall outlooks outline this well. Deep layer shear is relatively weak for the most part as well, though if any cold pools can become established, this may not be as important with decent instability to work with.

00Z HRRR solution does show a line segment clipping far southwestern portions of central Indiana this evening with a localized damaging wind threat, and this will require monitoring, but again the localized hydro concerns are more pressing given continued precipitable water values near or above 90th percentile through much of the weekend.

NEXT WEEK -

The predominant story next week will be a reassertion of summertime heat as a brief pseudo-Rex block pattern forms with the western CONUS ridge sliding back eastward atop weak upper level low pressure to our south, gradually reconnecting with the Bermuda high over the southeast. Temperatures will climb back towards the 90 degree mark in spots, though with slightly more reasonable dewpoints than the first week of the month, keeping max apparent temperatures still toasty but far more manageable in the low to mid 90s.

The high pressure aloft and at the surface will keep the area dry for the most part, though airmass thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out near peak heating many days. That said, these are quite low predictability days ahead of time and will not merit at most slight chance afternoon PoPs later in the week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Impacts:

- Low ceilings and patchy fog possible late tonight into Friday morning

- Chance for additional thunderstorms this afternoon

Discussion:

Guidance suggests the plentiful low level moisture will produce widespread MVFR ceilings and visibilities at several sites late tonight with some IFR ceilings possible for a few hours around daybreak. These restrictions will likely persist to around midday or early afternoon before widespread VFR returns.

Additional thunderstorm activity will be possible during the afternoon hours at most sites, and will carry a PROB30 group at all but LAF for this potential. This activity should wane in the late afternoon/early evening hours.

Winds will generally be southwesterly much of the period below 10KT but may become light and variable late in the period/Friday night.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.