textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing clouds today with afternoon rain chances across the north. Warmer.

- Milder but still largely below normal for the upcoming week, with multiple chances for rain; heavy rain possible at times.

- Marginal threat for damaging winds and large hail late Monday.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 336 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Rain is ongoing across our north with SW flow bringing gusts of 25- 30 mph and gradually warming temps. A larger upper trough will continue approaching the area with the associated cold front nearing late in the day tomorrow. PoPs will increase as the front nears and lift and moisture increase, with best chances tomorrow night and through the day Tuesday. There is some concern for isolated to scattered severe weather tomorrow evening into the early morning hours Tuesday despite limited moisture and only modest shear and buoyancy. However, large scale forcing may increase enough during that time frame to produce damaging winds and large hail. Luckily as we get towards daybreak Tuesday, that threat will diminish with rain and thunderstorms taking over. More widespread rainfall will increase as Tuesday goes on and into the overnight. The front, and with it the rain, should exit to the SE by Wednesday. Flooding could be a concern on the back end of this system, especially along rivers. Through Tuesday morning half an inch to an inch is expected, but an additional inch or more is not out of the realm of possibility for late Tuesday into the overnight hours.

Latest guidance is advancing the additional forcing Tuesday night quickly eastward, with QPF on Wednesday trending downward. Temperatures for Wednesday will be cooler with deep cloud cover and consistent troughing aloft; expect highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Frosty conditions once again cannot be ruled out for Wednesday night with 850mb temperatures hovering just below freezing. That said, this will greatly depend on if clearing will occur as surface pressure increases.

To end the week, there will be a slight pattern change as the Bermuda high slides westward and the deep troughing over the eastern- half of Canada begins to flatten out. This will likely lead to more a more consistent pattern of near seasonal temperatures with brief periodic rain chances along quickly passing shortwaves. Timing of these waves is still widely varied amongst ensemble members.

As we head into the middle of the month, teleconnection patterns are hinting at a weakening of the NAO of which should aid in progression of the troughing to the north and a return to SW flow, resulting in a stretch of warmer than normal conditions.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 751 PM EDT Sun May 3 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds above 20 kts becoming more sporadic overnight, increasing again to 25-30 kts after 15z

- Chance for TSRA increases after 18z

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through the period despite an increasing chance for showers and storms through the afternoon and evening Monday.

For the rest of this evening and tonight, high confidence in VFR cigs and vis at all sites. Satellite and radar does show a weak boundary south of I-70 with showers developing along it. High cloud bases and low level dry air should keep conditions VFR despite the threat for rain near KBMG. Expect additional convection to develop along this boundary overnight, however at that point the boundary should be south of KBMG along with the threat for showers and storms.

Gusty winds to 20-25kts early this evening will become more sporadic after sunset and overnight. Cannot rule out a few gusts overnight, but low confidence exists in the frequency of their occurrence, so omitting them from the TAF at the moment. Expect gusts to increase again after 14-15z Monday.

Chances for showers and a few storms increase Monday afternoon at all sites. Similar to today, high cloud bases and low level dry air may delay the onset of convective development and keep coverage isolated earlier in the day as well as keep both cigs and vis at VFR levels even under some showers. Better threat for MVFR or worse conditions exists later Monday evening and into Tuesday as the boundary layer saturates and convective coverage increases.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.