textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers through tonight, possibly mixed with snow tonight into Friday.

- Wind gusts up to 30 mph possible this evening into tonight.

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow warming trend

DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 246 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Low pressure currently resides over western Pennsylvania with broad cyclonic flow extending throughout the Great Lakes region. Broad lift combined with multiple subtle surface troughs are leading to scattered showers this afternoon. With cold air advection ongoing aloft and steepening lapse rates, precipitation has been convective in nature. There have been a few reports of graupel at times. Mixed precipitation will remain possible overnight as temperatures continue to cool.

Additionally, fetch off of Lake Michigan is maximized with northwesterly flow. This could allow for an enhanced band of precipitation extending into the northern or northwestern portions of our CWA. Some snow may mix in especially within this lake band tonight into Friday morning.

Winds remain elevated as the MSLP gradient around the low remains tight. Gusts between 20 to 30 mph are possible through tonight. These winds should gradually diminish tomorrow as the low pulls away. Cloud cover may linger well into the afternoon and evening hours on Friday as cyclonic flow maintains enough weak lift to support stratocumulus.

As for temperatures a small diurnal spread is anticipated due to wind and cloud cover. Highs today in the 40s will drop into the 30s overnight. Temperatures rebound into the upper 40s again on Friday. Skies clear over the weekend which will allow the temperature spread to widen. Good radiational cooling conditions will allow lows to dip into the 20s both Friday night and Saturday night.

One caveat to the temperature forecast Saturday and Sunday is lingering northwesterly flow. A narrow band of cloud cover extending downwind of Lake Michigan may persist so long as the fetch remains off the primary axis of the lake. These clouds will insulate the boundary layer keeping lows closer to 30 compared to the mid 20s elsewhere. Based on the expected wind field, this temperature uncertainty is greatest across our northeastern counties.

Monday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist for much of next week. A strong high pressure ridge will pivot into the Ohio Valley for the second half of the weekend with a return to quiet weather and mainly clear skies that will last through much of next week. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November by the middle of next week. Highs will largely remain in the mid and upper 40s through Monday...then rising into the mid and upper 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and lower 30s through the period.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1256 PM EST Thu Nov 12 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered to numerous showers this afternoon continuing into tonight

- Gusty northwest wind this evening, gusts around 25 kt possible

- MVFR ceilings expected most of the day and into tonight. IFR possible after 04z.

Discussion:

Northerly flow continues behind a cold front that passed through central Indiana last night. The low pressure system responsible for the cold front is located to our east now. Cyclonic surface flow remains in place. Multiple subtle surface troughs are pivoting around the low, causing winds to oscillate between west- northwesterly and northerly. Winds speeds between 10 to 15 kt with gusts 20 to 25 kt can be expected through tonight.

Additionally, broad lift and fetch off of Lake Michigan will lead to scattered showers at times through this afternoon and into tonight. Showers may briefly lead to reduced visibility. Some snow may mix in as well, especially near LAF overnight. MVFR ceilings are expected to expand in coverage and lower overnight. IFR conditions are possible after 04z to about 16z Friday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.