textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy frost possible north and west tonight

- Cool and dry conditions continuing into Thursday morning, with a low chance for showers Thursday afternoon and night north

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Friday afternoon into Friday night

- Additional chances for showers and a storm or two late in the weekend and again mid week, with temperatures remaining near to below normal

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 913 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Many of the clouds have dissipated early this evening, but patches of cumulus/stratocumulus still are moving through. Dewpoints have lowered some, especially northwest.

Skies will become mostly clear this evening, but some high clouds don't look to move in until late tonight. Winds will continue to diminish. Given these conditions, have nudged down low temperatures. Lows will still be mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s, but favored cold spots may dip into the middle 30s, especially north and west.

This may allow for some patchy frost to form, especially if the higher clouds arrive later than expected. Have added some patchy frost to a few areas, but don't believe that there's enough coverage for an advisory.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 212 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Guidance continues to indicate that the next week or so will be dominated by large scale cyclonic flow across much of the nation. This will produce a continued pattern of near to below normal temperatures and multiple opportunities for showers and a few thunderstorms.

Quiet, dry, and cool weather is expected tonight into Thursday morning under the influence of surface high pressure to the southeast. Will carry low chances for showers tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow night across the northern portions of the area as a broad upper level impulse swings through the broader cyclonic flow, aided by large scale ascent on the poleward side of a curved jet streak. A significant lack of instability and dry low level air will limit intensity and amounts of any precip, as well as make thunder unlikely.

A slightly more substantial disturbance, accompanied by a weak surface reflection, will require higher rain chances Friday into Friday night, as well as an isolated thunder threat given the additional forcing for ascent, as well as deeper saturation. Minimal instability will prevent an appreciable severe threat, though hydrologic concerns will need to monitored given precipitation amounts on the order of 150 to 300 percent of normal in the past 7- 14 days, which has already produced minor flooding in many areas, and primed smaller watersheds to quick response to heavy downpours. Precipitable water values will be notable but not extreme - roughly 75th-80th percentile climatologically, which should keep the flood threat more localized.

A relatively quick approach of another boundary will force surface flow back to the southwest on Saturday, which, along with plentiful sunshine, will help to drive high temperatures into the low to mid 70s and may represent the most pleasant day of the next week.

The aforementioned boundary will push through the area Sunday, bringing another round of rain chances along with additional low chances for thunder. Precipitable water values will again be enhanced but unremarkable, though antecedent conditions will again require monitoring of the hydrologic situation. Minimal instability will again be present, however, limiting strength of any storms that do develop.

A brief break under the influence of an axis of surface high pressure can be expected early next week with temperatures again about 5-10 degrees below normal, with additional disturbances bringing low chances for showers as we move into mid week. Uncertainty increases as we get toward the end of the seven day period, as model discrepancies grow. There is some indication that a brief warmup may occur late in the period as shortwave ridging pushes eastward, but other guidance indicates a persistence of broader cyclonic flow into and beyond the end of the seven day period, which would keep temperatures suppressed. Longer range outlooks indicate more persistent warmth may wait until well into the week 2 if not the week 3-4 period.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 701 PM EDT Wed May 6 2026

Impacts:

- Low chance of fog near sunrise at most sites

Discussion:

Broken VFR ceilings between BKN060-BKN090 will continue at times early in the period, then mainly high clouds are expected at times into Thursday morning. Thursday afternoon, more scattered to perhaps broken clouds around 6000FT will move in from the northwest. A few showers are possible late in the period, mainly at KLAF.

The other concern will be the potential for fog near sunrise. Winds not far off the surface may be enough to produce enough motion to prevent fog, and higher clouds will also be moving in. Thus, while the odds remain non-zero, feel odds are too low to include.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.