textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild today with showers and embedded thunderstorms developing late day

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible late today into this evening focused primarily across the southwest half of central Indiana. Damaging wind gusts are the primary threat.

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow warming trend

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 245 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Mild weather continues today ahead of low pressure that will approach the region this afternoon. The low will track quickly across the Ohio Valley late today into this evening with showers and a few thunderstorms accompanying an associated cold front. In its wake...a much cooler airmass will overspread the Ohio Valley as a strengthening upper level trough expands across the eastern half of the country. Chilly temperatures are expected with the chance for scattered light precipitation Thursday and Friday. As the upper trough moves away to the east over the weekend...dry and seasonable weather will return and continue into next week.

Through Tonight

Thin cirrus is slowing increasing across the region early this morning with patchy fog having developed in response to shallow moisture and largely calm flow in the near surface layer. 07Z temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

Fog has remained localized to this point with visibilities largely remaining above one mile. The remnants of the weak boundary that moved into the forecast area on Tuesday appears to be located just south of Interstate 70 early this morning and may serve as a focal point for further expansion of the ongoing fog through the predawn hours as temperatures fall to the dewpoint. Will continue to monitor through daybreak with fog diminishing by mid morning.

The greater focus for today will be on the low pressure currently organizing over northwest Iowa early this morning. The low will continue to strengthen as it tracks southeast with an associated cold front today then across the forecast area late this afternoon and evening. Convection will rapidly develop along the boundary by late day and at least presents a sneaky yet conditional risk for a few severe storms. Initially the approach of the low and cold front will promote an increase in S/SW flow across the Ohio Valley with a narrow axis of subtly higher dewpoints and MLCAPE values from 600- 1200 j/kg drawn poleward along the front by mid afternoon. This will approach the Wabash Valley after 20Z with increasing convective development expected after that as BL shear increases and lapse rates steepen. Convection will surge east along the front with impacts from 21Z through about 01Z from northwest to southeast across the forecast area.

The combination of best moisture and instability with strongest shear will occur just south of the surface low track with the greatest risk for a few severe storms focusing south of a line from near or just north of Terre Haute E/SE through Bloomington and Columbus. While the low level jet is not particularly impressive... it will not take much to pull some of the higher winds to the surface with any stronger cell in this zone across the southwest half of the forecast area. The presence of a narrow one to two hour timeframe with increasing 0-1km SRH and favorable directional shear through the boundary layer supports a low but non-zero threat for a tornado as well. Stronger cells will carry a risk for small hail but anticipated updraft strength is likely not to be sufficient for larger hail. The convective line will shift east quickly and be out of the forecast area by mid evening.

Strong cold advection will commence immediately in the wake of the frontal passage with gusty N/NW winds developing. Scattered light showers will continue tonight focused largely across the northeast half of the forecast area as cyclonic flow aloft gradually establishes. Temperatures will fall quickly to around 40 by daybreak Thursday.

Thursday through Friday Night

The coldest air of the Fall so far arrives for Thursday and Friday as an upper trough amplifies and then closes off an upper low that will drop into the eastern Great Lakes by Friday night. Multiple waves will pivot around the flank of the upper level trough maintaining plenty of low level clouds and periodic precipitation through the period.

The strongest of the short waves will track across the region on Thursday. As it does so the wave will interact with strong cold advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered to numerous light rain showers peaking in coverage during the afternoon and focused particularly across the northeast half of the forecast area. The addition of brisk northwest winds and broad stratus will make for a raw chilly day across the area with highs remaining in the 40s.

Subtle ridging Thursday evening will aid in decreasing shower coverage but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region Friday morning which will maintain at least a broken stratus deck with the potential for renewed light precipitation that may linger into the day. A more pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan Thursday night into early Friday supports the development of a more persistent north-south band of rain and snow across northwest Indiana that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Model soundings do show a saturated airmass through about 700mb with modest lapse rates into Friday afternoon. This will maintain a healthy stratocu deck across much of the area as a result with the potential for sprinkles or flurries for parts of the forecast area generally to the east of Interstate 65. Drier air will gradually advect into the region Friday night as upper level cyclonic flow relaxes resulting in a slow scattering of low clouds from the west as the night progresses. Lows will drop into the mid and upper 20s over the entire forecast area.

Saturday through the Middle of Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist well into next week. Other than the potential for lingering scattered diurnal cu on Saturday as the upper low moves away... expect a return to quiet weather with mainly clear skies as strong high pressure settles over the region. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with seasonable conditions for mid November. Highs will rise from the mid and upper 40s this weekend back into the mid 50s by next Wednesday. Lows will range between the mid 20s and lower 30s through the period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 528 AM EST Wed Nov 11 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog early this morning with lowest visibilities at KHUF

- Scattered showers with embedded storms impacting the terminals late today into the evening

- Gusty N/NW winds with MVFR ceilings developing tonight into early Thursday

Discussion:

Patchy fog continues early this morning with the lowest visibilities at KHUF over the last few hours. Fog will linger through daybreak for diminishing by 14Z as mid and high level clouds slowly increase in advance of a surface low pressure approaching from the west. Near calm winds to start will increase to 5-10kts by late morning from the south.

As the low moves into the region during the second half of the afternoon...convective coverage will quickly increase along the trailing cold front as it sweeps across central Indiana into the early evening. May see embedded thunder with briefly stronger wind gusts accompany the convection with the bulk of the activity east of the terminals by mid evening. Winds will veer to N/NW and become gusty immediately behind the front during the evening. MVFR stratocu will gradually fill in as well for much of tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.