textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and unseasonably high temperatures to continue through Friday, afternoon highs in the 70s.

- A wetter pattern may take shape for the Halloween weekend.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 936 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

No major adjustments necessary to the forecast this morning. Made minor tweaks to account for patch of midlevel cloud NBM did not capture, and to tweak dewpoints for afternoon mixing a bit.

Expect mostly clear south, partly to occasionally mostly cloudy north, and highs in the mid 70s today.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 247 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure over New England, maintaining control of the weather across points east of the Mississippi. A weak upper trough was found over WI and IL, pushing east. Ahead of this trough an area of clouds were seen across Indiana, while water vapor showed subsidence in the wake of the trough over IA/IL and the southern plains. Winds were light to calm across central Indiana dew points were in the upper 40s or lower 50s.

Today and Tonight...

More above normal temperatures and more sunshine is expected across Central Indiana today. Weak ridging aloft is expected to push across Central Indiana today as the clouds and upper trough over the area depart early this morning. This will lead to a mostly sunny day and continued warm temperatures. The surface high pressure system to the east will continue to provide a warm an southerly flow of air to Central Indiana, allowing highs to reach the middle 70s and a few upper 70s. Time heights and forecast soundings show a dry column today and tonight with subsidence in play.

Thursday and Friday....

West to southwest flow is expected to be in place on Thursday, transitioning to a upper ridge on Friday. Little to no forcing dynamics are in expected to pass on Thursday. The upper ridge looks to protect Indiana from any forcing on Friday. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front will drop out of the upper midwest on Thursday afternoon and stall over Central Indiana. This really is a the tail of the front extending well into Quebec and there is little forcing or moisture associated with it, as it is more of a cusp between two high pressure systems. Forecast soundings through this period show a few clouds on Thursday night, but never come close to saturation. Thus more dry and warm weather will be expected. Southwest flow ahead of the front on Thursday will allow for highs to reach the upper 70s to around 80 on Thursday, with cooler values expected in the wake of the front for Friday.

Saturday through Tuesday...

The upper pattern during this time suggests upper ridging over the plains on Saturday, pushing through Indiana on Sunday and Monday before reaching the east coast by Tuesday. As the flow become more southwesterly on the windward side of the ridge on Sunday through Tuesday, models suggest waves of upper forcing embedded within the flow pushing toward Indiana. Furthermore, Isentropic surfaces show an ongoing pattern of broad lift. Within the lower levels, high pressure is suggested to over the eastern Great Lakes and Middle Atlantic states on Saturday and Sunday before pushed off the coast for Monday and Tuesday. The lower level east or southeasterly flow will allow for an overrunning setup on Saturday through Monday. By Tuesday, a deeper low pressure system over the southern plains is suggested to set up allowing an associated warm front to reside over Central IL and Indiana. Best chances for rain at this time look to be Sunday, Sunday Night and Tuesday, but with all these ingredients in place through this period, smaller chances cannot be ruled out yet on late Saturday and Monday. Due to the cloud cover and precipitation during the period, expect lows in the 50s, but highs mainly reaching only the mid to upper 60s. Normal high temperatures for this time of year is in the upper 50s.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1258 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Impacts:

- SW winds gust 18-20 kts Thursday afternoon.

Discussion:

Areas of mid level clouds have dissipated across central Indiana in the last few hours. More mid level clouds associated with a weak disturbance will move eastward overnight with just scattered to brief broken coverage expected. With low pressure far to the north- nw and high pressure centered nearby in the Appalachians, expect light southerly winds through tonight along with VFR conditions.

A stronger storm system over the northern Plains and associated cold front will move into the western Great Lakes on Thursday. Ahead of the front, winds will become more southwesterly with sustained speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts 18-20 kts at KIND/KLAF by midday/16Z lasting through the afternoon. The cold frontal wind shift to NW along with lower VFR ceilings are expected to reach KIND shortly after the end of the TAF period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.