textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier and cooler weather through Tuesday

- Freeze Warning in effect for northern half of central Indiana late tonight into Tuesday morning, including the Indianapolis metro

- Warming trend begins Wednesday and continues through next weekend

- Isolated to scattered rain chances return Thursday onward, which may bring receding rivers back into flood in some areas

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 952 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Current surface analysis and satellite imagery depicts quiet weather across central Indiana as surface ridging extends northeastward from high pressure centered near the southern Plains. A weak surface low is located over the Great Lakes Region, but no precipitation is expected over the area from this feature.

The low pressure system is pushing a weak cold front through at this time. However, temperatures are still warming due to deepening mixing and sunny skies. Look for highs mostly in the 50s with far southern counties expected to the low 60s. The deep mixing will support gusty winds between 20-30 mph today.

The Freeze Watch for the northern half of central Indiana has been upgraded to a Freeze Warning from 2 to 10AM Tuesday with near or below freezing temperatures expected. The Freeze Warning includes the Indianapolis metro, but urban heat island effects could keep many nearby surrounding areas slightly above freezing. Elevated winds overnight should prevent frost development. Make sure to cover any sensitive outdoor plants.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

The week will start off cooler than usual with the threat of frost and below freezing mornings as high pressure moves through the area. Behind the front, temperatures swing back to above normal for midweek. The passing surface high will also bring quieter weather to central Indiana throughout the short term.

Temperatures this morning have already dropped into the 30s for much of central Indiana, with the best threat of frost potential across our SE where the ongoing advisory is. Southwest winds and dew points in the mid 30s will help keep temps dropping below freezing this morning.

The large high pressure system stretches from Canada into the central Plains and south. A weak but fast moving cold front will swing through the area today, shifting winds out of the NW. Aloft will reside strong winds which will mix down to the surface throughout the day. Expect sustained winds of around 15 mph and gusts up to around 30 mph, mainly during the afternoon hours. Behind the front, the Canadian center of the high will move into the Great Lakes region, pulling in the cooler and drier air.

Highs today will reach into the 50s to near 60. Mainly clear skies are expected tonight, although some cloud coverage looks to move in nearer to daybreak. Lows tonight will be the coldest of the next week, with lows in the mid 30s in the south but down to the upper 20s in the north. There remains some question as to how cold and the southern extent of the freezing line, but the northern portion of the forecast area will very likely freeze for several hours Tuesday morning. The cold will linger into Tuesday with highs only in the 40s to low 50s.

As the high pressure system pushes eastward, central Indiana will be on the backside and return surface flow from the south. Associated WAA will quickly warm temperatures back above normal with highs in the 60s to near 70 Wednesday and Thursday. An approaching low from the east will further endorse the S to SW flow for Thursday. The cold front off of that low could bring rain chances for our NW counties as early as late Thursday.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 309 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Expectation for late this week into the weekend remains a return to above normal temperatures and a potential return to active weather.

The strong Canadian high will be off the east coast by 00Z Friday, with a northern stream low near James Bay and moving rapidly eastward. An elongated cold front stretching from this low back to the central high Plains will stall somewhere near the region late week and may produce multiple opportunities for convection, though model disagreement precludes more than chance PoPs. Potential will exist for multiple rounds of precipitation, which could prolong or exacerbate ongoing flooding on main stem rivers given antecedent conditions as a result of the wet weather in recent weeks. Hydrologic ensembles do show renewed river rises next weekend in response to this potential rainfall, though a mostly dry week will help to hopefully blunt these impacts a bit.

There is little to indicate significant severe threats during the latter portion of the forecast, and this is backed up by experimental machine learning guidance. That said, week two outlooks continue to indicate enhanced likelihood of warmer than normal and above normal precipitation conditions, thus we may well be back in an active pattern for mid to late April.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 457 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts 20-27KT from 300-310 degrees from 15-00Z

Discussion:

Deep PBL mixing and a passing dry cold front will result in winds turning back toward the northwest and strengthening again today, with sustained winds peaking at 15-19KT with gusts as high as 20- 27KT from mid morning through the afternoon. Winds and gusts will subside in typical diurnal fashion after sunset.

A few fair weather cu and thin high clouds will be possible at the sites today, though skies should remain mostly clear. A slow increase in mid and high cloud can be expected late in the period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-054>057-065.