textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms at times today

- Locally heavy rainfall possible today

- Above normal temperatures expected through Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 250 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Today through tonight...

Surface low pressure located roughly over Knox County, per visible satellite imagery, is slowly moving eastward today. A surface trough extends from the low eastward into Ohio. This has been the source of numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning. Shower activity had largely diminished earlier this afternoon, however, as upper- level support exits eastward. Nevertheless, showers have once again begun slowly intensifying as sunshine warms the boundary layer leading to some weak instability.

ACARS soundings out of IND show meager lapse rates but rich moisture throughout the column. A deep warm cloud layer has lead to high efficiency rainfall production, and heavy rainfall rates have been observed (2 to 3 inches have fallen in a few localized areas). Though shower/storm activity is less numerous than earlier, some very localized totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible this afternoon.

Guidance shows surface low pressure weakening and drifting east this evening, taking any lingering showers/storms with it. Clearing skies are expected tonight as high pressure builds in from the north. This process may take some time, and low-level moisture from today's rainfall may take most of the night to scour out. If skies clear soon enough, and dry air from the high doesn't arrive until morning, then fog may develop tonight. Locally dense fog is possible.

Thursday through early next week...

Long range guidance continues to depict an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week through early next week. Expect another warm day Thursday in the low 80s with highs then holding nearly steady in the mid to upper 70s through early next week.

A few models have hinted at the ridge retrograding slightly, allowing for a shortwave to move in aloft early next week. These solutions are outliers, but this will continue to be monitored as this could impact temperatures. Precipitation still appears very unlikely during the period.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings at HUF/IND/BMG improving to VFR later today. Brief period of IFR visibility possible within heavier showers

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected at most sites through around 00z

Discussion:

Near MVFR to MVFR ceilings are ongoing at all central Indiana sites this afternoon, but will improve to solidly VFR towards late this evening. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing at all sites this afternoon except LAF. Isolated IFR visibilities are possible within stronger showers. Look for MVFR ceilings to then scatter out Wednesday afternoon.

Winds are expected to be lighter and somewhat variable at times, but the wind direction should predominately be east-northeasterly for most sites except BMG. Patchy fog is also possible during the early morning hours, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area, but not enough confidence to include in tafs at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.