textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible today.

- Mainly dry into the late week...with slightly above normal readings amid often light winds and ample sun

- Rain showers are likely Saturday night-Sunday, especially south of I-70...with uncertainty on the exact timing/amounts

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week with milder conditions expected

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 314 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Early this morning, some high clouds were passing across central Indiana. Thanks in part to the clouds and to southerly winds, temperatures were warmer than recent nights and in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

A cold front was back across Wisconsin and Iowa. Water vapor satellite was showing deeper moisture back in Texas and Arkansas. Low level moisture had made it into Missouri and southern Illinois.

The main questions for this forecast are how much if any fog will develop today, and what effects clouds/fog/snow cover will have on temperatures.

Dewpoint depressions remain high across central Indiana. The better moisture is back where the fog is across Missouri and southern Illinois. Winds will take a while to become southwest, perhaps into mid-morning. Thus, feel odds of advection fog are lowering for the predawn hours. The SREF and HREF both show fog developing during the morning hours into the afternoon ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, the HRRR disagrees and says no fog.

For now, believe that enough moisture will be lifted over the deeper inversion across the forecast area for stratus to develop rather than widespread fog. However, will have to monitor closely, especially if better low level moisture makes it to the deeper snowpack across areas east and southeast of Indy and allows fog to form.

Looking at temperatures, readings will start off mild. Warm advection ahead of the cold front will work with some initial sunshine to boost temperatures. However, the developing stratus deck will limit sunshine during the afternoon. Monday's temperatures did well even with the snow cover, so that won't be as much of a limiting factor as previously thought.

Given the uncertainties in stratus cover and fog development, will not stray too far from blended guidance. For now will go with lower 40s to middle 50s for highs. If thicker stratus and/or fog develop over the deeper snow cover, readings will be colder.

The deeper moisture currently well to the southwest of central Indiana will arrive too late to interact with the cold front enough to produce any rain. Will continue a dry forecast.

Tonight will be dry behind the cold front. Cold advection will bring some lower level clouds, especially across the eastern forecast area. Lows will be in the 20s.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 314 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Wednesday through Friday...

Overall quieter pattern to continue into at least the first half of the long term period. Retracted and mainly zonal flow will prevail across most of the central/eastern CONUS through the late week, allowing late-winter surface high pressure to slowly cross the Midwest. Any small/brief mid-level weaknesses sliding from the Dakotas to the Ohio Valley should not have enough gumption to get any precipitation through the dry column....although overcast skies that will be more likely around the Thursday to Thursday night timeframe should be bookended by otherwise partly to mostly clear conditions.

Perhaps moderate northwest breezes Wednesday when the high pressure slides in, with unseasonably light winds then being the rule through the rest of the workweek. Readings to be suppressed only slightly from the weaker ridge...with modest return flow through the late week facilitating slight moderation. Therefore expect temperatures overall slightly above normal...ranging from 20s to 30s/40s, with a noticeable north-sotuh daytime gradient courtesy of the zonal heights pattern.

Saturday through Monday...

Weekend to likely turn cloudy yet with above normal temperatures as stacked cut-off low crosses southern US under broadening upper ridge across the northern states. Less confidence in duration and amounts of associated precipitation...with ensembles favoring moderate to perhaps heavy rainfall along Ohio Valley Saturday night into much of Sunday, yet perhaps only scattered showers near/north of I-70. Despite southern track of surface low pressure, lack of polar air will likely keep 1000-500 mb thicknesses above 550 dm, so at the moment higher certainty in rain-only p-type.

Flooding will be a potential concern, especially across southern zones where greater rainfall...and greater antecedent liquid will be trapped in any lingering snow pack above frozen ground. The potential for ice jam development this week will remain a concern (through the entire long term amid moderation, again especially south where readings are expected to near 50F Thursday and onward)...with any ice jams potentially increasing impacts of flooding from snow melt / partially-frozen ground / moderate-heavy rainfall.

Moderate confidence that the weekend system departs in time for the long term to end on a dry and even milder note as the synoptic H500 ridge builds north into south-central Canada. Next area of low pressure likely tracking near the northern Plains would provide at least modest southerly flow...which could bring the highest temperatures to central Indiana since early January.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 534 AM EST Tue Feb 10 2026

Impacts:

- Low level wind shear this morning - MVFR ceilings possible this afternoon - Wind shift to NW this afternoon

Discussion:

A low level jet will continue LLWS conditions this morning.

Moisture moving into the area may create some patchy fog at KBMG into early afternoon, but given recent observational trends, feel that odds of fog are too low to mention.

As moisture continues to flow into the area ahead of a cold front today, MVFR stratus will likely develop. Uncertainty remains on how widespread it will be and on when it will form, but what develops will get pushed out of the area this evening.

Lower clouds tonight should remain east of the TAF sites.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.