textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries and a few light snow showers this afternoon and tonight across the northeast half of central Indiana

- Swath of light snow northeast of I-65 Friday morning with light accumulations possible. Freezing drizzle may mix in briefly to west of I-65

- Cold and dry late Friday through the first half of the weekend with a warming trend to follow through the middle of next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 853 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Short, significant differences in the stratus coverage across central Indiana has led to a wide difference in surface conditions. NW portions of the area have remained relatively mild, upper teens, beneath the stratus layer. However, clear skies to the east have resulted in much lower temperatures, mostly in the low single digits. These areas near zero are also experiencing some patchy ground freezing fog, but impacts are expected to be minimal.

The rest of day will be focused on the potential of light snow ahead of a weak shortwave later this morning through the afternoon. Best chance for any accumulation today will be over NE central Indiana, with any accumulation likely remaining at a few tenths or less.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Temperatures have cooled very slowly overnight across much of the area underneath a persistent stratus deck. Latest satellite imagery and observations do depict some clearing though over far eastern counties and even near Warren County in far NW central IN. These areas that have cleared out are cooler with a few locations in the east already in the single digits. Clouds over much of central Indiana should continue to limit diurnal cooling, but any spots that manage to clear out will cool more substantially. Expect lows to range from the single digits to teens.

The aforementioned stratus deck appears to have no intention of going today as forecast soundings depict a strong subsidence inversion keeping low-level moisture trapped. Guidance does show the inversion gradually eroding late in the day due to marginal moisture advection and forcing ahead of an approaching upper wave, but additional clouds are expected with this subtle disturbance. Flurries will be possible at times along with the potential for isolated light snow showers, mainly this afternoon into tonight for N/NE portions of central Indiana. If any light snow showers develop, very light accumulations up to a few tenths of an inch would be possible, mainly near far northeastern counties. Confidence is limited though given the marginal moisture and forcing expected.

The potential for flurries or an isolated light snow shower persist into tonight. A more organized upper wave will approach late tonight supporting better chances for light wintry precipitation towards daybreak Friday. There is a low chance for a brief period of light freezing drizzle to mix in for some areas if the DGZ remains dry (lack of ice nuclei) with a shallow saturated layer beneath it. Some guidance has hinted at the potential, but uncertainty remains due to varying solutions for the marginal setup. However, even a light glaze of ice could result in significant impacts as ground temperatures remain cold. Stay tuned for updates. Light wintry precipitation chances continue into Friday so look for additional details on this in the long term discussion below.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 258 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

An upper low will drop southeast from James Bay into New England Friday and Saturday...deepening the longwave trough along the East Coast. A surface low with an associated cold front will track southeast across the Great Lakes with a swath of wintry precipitation primarily in the form of snow impacting the forecast area Friday morning. A reinforcing shot of colder air will follow into the weekend before the eastward expansion of ridging aloft advect milder air into the region next week with temperatures climbing to above normal levels.

The primary focus for the extended is on the first half of the day Friday as first a surface trough and then a cold front sweep through the region. Light snow will quickly expand south around and just after daybreak Friday in advance of the frontal boundary with a swath of light accumulating snow for most of the northeast half of the forecast area through early afternoon. Snow accumulations will likely be confined to areas along and east of I-65 with the highest amounts near or just above an inch over far northeast portions of central Indiana.

Model soundings show the development of a warm bulge in the 850- 750mb layer that will become more pronounced further to the west across the region where moisture is shallower and temps within the boundary layer are warmer. This will likely result in a narrow axis of light mixed precip with light freezing rain or freezing drizzle as the prevalent precip type displaced on the western flank of the primary swath of snow. At this time...that axis is likely to align a short distance west of I-65 but this may still fluctuate. Any ice accrual will be limited to just a hundredth or two but the ground is frozen to a depth of several inches in the wake of our recent extended stretch of bitterly cold temperatures. This means that even a minuscule amount of freezing rain or drizzle would be enough to cause slick spots quickly. Any localized impacts should diminish quickly by midday Friday as light precip ends and temps warm to just above freezing.

Dry and cold conditions will then settle across the Ohio Valley late Friday through much of the weekend as strong high pressure passes through the area. As temperatures modify early next week...there remain signals for a more active weather pattern developing across the Ohio Valley as a quasi-zonal regime aloft develops over much of the country. A large ensemble spread remains with respect to low pressure organizing and lifting into the northern Great Lakes by the middle of next week and pulling an associated frontal boundary into the region. Rain chances are certainly warranted beyond late Tuesday but lack of a more consistent scenario precludes introducing higher precip chances at this time.

Highs will warm into the 30s on Friday but the passage of the cold front will usher in a fresh surge of Arctic air for the first half of the weekend. Temperatures to the northeast of the Indy metro will remain in the teens Saturday with 20s to the southwest. Recovery begins Sunday with a 10-15 degree jump in temps from Saturday... eventually rising into the 40s over most of the forecast area for early next week with low to mid 50s possible over the lower Wabash Valley and south central Indiana by Tuesday.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1157 AM EST Thu Feb 5 2026

Impacts:

- Predominately MVFR ceilings through tonight; IFR to LIFR tomorrow morning

- Flurries or isolated snow showers likely this afternoon. Likely nothting worse than MVFR.

- SN/FZRA/FZDZ likely over various TAF sites tomorrow morning into the afternoon

Discussion:

Widespread MVFR ceilings are ongoing and expected to persist for much of the day and tonight. Brief improvements to VFR are possible, but should quickly return as a shortwave nears from the north. Within stratus this afternoon, isolated snow showers are possible with VIS between 5 and 8SM.

A larger system will arrive early tomorrow morning, initially leading to IFR to LIFR ceilings. Snow will be most likely at KLAF and KIND between 13-19Z with mainly MVFR VIS, but pockets of IFR VIS. FZRA and/or FZDZ is expected at KHUF and KBMG at times tomorrow mornign with VIS around 4-7SM. Expect predominately southwest winds through the period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.