textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances this evening into tonight with additional convection possible on Wednesday

- Localized flash flooding possible tonight through Wednesday

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 251 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Rest of Today through Wednesday:

A challenging forecast lies ahead as a mid level vort max pushes northward, impinging on a broad area of high pressure. This is leading to a dichotomy of weather conditions across the forecast area, with slightly warmer and dry surface conditions over far N/NW central Indiana, and the rest of central Indiana slightly cooler and elevated dew points. Clouds will remain over most of the area, with a few pockets of sunshine possible over that same N/NW portion of the area.

Current radar imagery depicts rain pushing northward with our southern tier of counties currently beneath light rain. This area of rain will mix out some as it lifts northward and interacts with the previously mentioned high pressure. Still period of light rain will be possible all the way up to the I-70 corridor through the early evening.

After 02Z, mid level lapse rates will begin to cool and broad lift will continue to push northward, eventually leading to a narrow zone of weak elevated instability. This zone is expected to be about 50- 100mi wide and produce consistent convective cells. Models still vary on where this zone of convection will be located, ranging from just north of the I-70 corridor a line from Bloomington to Seymour. Those within this zone will likely see a broad inches of rain, with pockets of 2 inches depending on how transient this line progresses.

As cold pools develop some of the available energy for updrafts will diminish leading to a brief period of lower PoPs tomorrow morning. PoPs and thunder chances will increase again in the late morning to early afternoon S/E of Indianapolis, with rain and thunder pushing east with time.

Thursday onward:

Look for rain chances to quickly diminish as a disturbance moves out of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Long range guidance depicts an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week through early next week. The stagnant mundane weather pattern could continue beyond day 7. Expect another warm day Thursday in the low 80s with temperatures then holding nearly steady in the mid to upper 70s through early next week.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 735 PM EDT Tue May 26 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings advance north tonight, MVFR to I-70 corridor by 06Z, and IFR/worse likely at KHUF/KBMG 10Z to late morning Wednesday - -SHRA likely by 03Z at KBMG...with scattered/numerous -SHRA at all all terminals (excepting KLAF) during 06Z-20Z Wednesday - MVFR visibility at times 07Z-14Z for all TAF sites, except KLAF

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings already at KBMG...will slowly advance northward, with VFR conditions at KIND/KHUF early this evening falling to MVFR at KIND/KHUF by 06Z. Supporting weak disturbance will slowly advance northward into central Indiana tonight-Wednesday...bringing an area of numerous -SHRA near KIND/KHUF/KBMG later tonight through at least midday Wednesday.

Between areas of organized -RA, associated low stratus will likely fall to IFR/worse at KBMG/KHUF, and possibly at KIND, after 06Z tonight. Ceilings progged to be worst 07Z-16Z, although VFR should continue at KLAF. MVFR elsewhere to scatter out Wednesday afternoon.

Visibility under isolated steadier SHRA, which may be briefly heavy and/or include TSRA to fall to MVFR within 07Z-13Z. Can not rule out brief IFR but confidence too low to include in any TAF. Ceilings will drive flight rule deterioration. Rain showers to taper off quickly from NW to SE late Wednesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.