textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures will continue, with below normal temperatures likely to persist well into mid February

- Chances for light snow tonight into Monday morning, Tuesday, and Thursday night into Friday, with light accumulations possible each time

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 949 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Minor updates made to the forecast this morning, mainly regarding temperatures as rural areas continue to be quite cold. Excellent radiational cooling conditions overnight have lead to numerous lows in the -10 to -15 degree range. In cities/urbanized areas temps were more modest in the 0 to -10 range. A strong but very shallow surface inversion was able to develop. This will take some time to mix out and temperatures are expected to remain a bit colder than guidance through the morning. However, once the inversion mixes out we'll warm up nicely (relatively speaking) with highs rising into the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The persistent north-south lake effect stratus streamer off lake Michigan has finally started to thin along the Illinois-Indiana border with most of the forecast area under clear skies. There was a wide variation in temperatures across central Indiana with some locations as cold as -10 to -5 while some spots primarily within the lower Wabash Valley where stratus still lingered remained in the teens.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will drift across the Ohio Valley today with dry weather and warmer temperatures as winds pivot around to the southwest by this afternoon. A fast moving upper level wave will spread clouds back into the region tonight with light snow late tonight into Monday morning.

CAMs have continued to struggle mightily with the specifics within the bitterly cold Arctic airmass that has now been in place over the region for more than a week. Those issues are present within the early morning model suite in overdoing yet again potential fog/freezing fog concerns through the predawn and into the morning. While shallow moisture remains within the near surface layer... analysis of ACARS soundings over the last few hours at KIND show that the hi-res models are exaggerating both the lingering inversion and moisture trapped beneath it. Observations across the area have shown localized freezing fog already early this morning and anticipate that to continue and likely expand slightly in coverage through daybreak. That being said...the widespread dense freezing fog and subsequent expansion of low stratus being suggested by the model suite over the next several hours is far overdone.

There will be sunshine this morning but any localized fog and stratus may take a bit of time to mix out through the morning as the surface ridge axis moves across the region with continued light and variable flow. As the ridge axis shifts east this afternoon... southwest flow will develop with partly cloudy skies anticipated before cloud cover returns from the west after sunset.

An upper wave will swing across the region late tonight with a mid level vort lobe moving through the forecast area during the predawn hours. While the overall model blend has struggled to depict this feature...the presence of the upper level forcing should be sufficient to spread an area of light snow across the forecast area after 06Z Monday and likely lasting through daybreak. Light accumulations around a half inch if not slightly higher are possible with elevated snow ratios in play.

Temps...the Cold Weather Advisory continues across the northeast half of the forecast area through 14Z and have seen wind chills within the advisory slip at times into the -15 to -10 range. This will be the last cold weather headline for the next few days as temperatures modify into the upcoming week. The onset of southwest flow this afternoon will aid in temperatures rising into the low and mid 20s across most of the forecast area. Lows tonight will range from the high single digits in the east to the mid teens over the Wabash Valley.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Expectations for the long term period remain roughly consistent as in recent days - for the most part, continued below normal temperatures, and at least a couple/few opportunities for light accumulating snowfall.

The tail end of a weak clipper system tonight may allow flurries or light snow to persist into Monday. Guidance in general, but especially blended guidance struggles with low QPF light snow, and have kept snow chances here in lieu of the dry blend.

Deterministic models have continued to stick with a weaker and further south depiction of the mid week system, though some potential for light accumulations will still exist, primarily during the day on Tuesday across the southern half or so of the area in a deformation zone north of the surface low.

A third, fairly potent clipper will move through the upper Great Lakes into the northeast late in the work week, and appears likely to produce another opportunity for light accumulations Thursday night into Friday, with some potential for additional flurries or lake effect snow showers into the early portion of the weekend depending upon the flow orientation in the wake of the system.

The continued intrusion of Arctic airmasses into the region will keep temperatures below normal, sometimes well below normal, throughout the period. If the freezing mark is going to make it into Indy metro, it may be on Friday ahead of the aforementioned clipper, though this will depend significantly upon timing of said system, and there is a perhaps substantial chance that guidance temperatures are too warm here. It is entirely possible Indianapolis does not reach the freezing mark until well into mid February.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1236 PM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Impacts:

- IFR stratus lingering near IND early this afternoon - Light snow arrives overnight - MVFR ceilings return Monday morning - Light snow showers / flurries continue Monday afternoon

Discussion:

Low-level stratus lingers across the Indy metro area with ceilings around 600 feet. Stratus has varied in coverage between FEW and BKN, but an overall decreasing trend has been observed on satellite imagery. Will include a tempo group for BKN006 for a few hours to account for the possibility of stratus briefly forming a ceiling.

Otherwise, high clouds are streaming in from the west ahead of a weak clipper system. Increasing mid/high clouds will continue into tonight with light snow arriving around or shortly after 06z. Light snow should continue into the day Monday while gradually becoming more scattered. Flurries could persist for much of the day Monday. MVFR ceilings are expected to return with the snow as low-levels saturate.

Winds take on a southerly component today and that will continue into tonight. Speeds remain less than less than 10kt for most of the TAF period, but a few gusts up to 15kt are possible tonight as the clipper system makes its closest approach.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.