textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Becoming partly cloudy and warmer through Monday

- Scattered rain showers Tuesday night into Wednesday...with snow showers at times late Wednesday into the early weekend

- Turning colder mid week onward

SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows low pressure over Quebec and high pressure over OK. A ridge axis extended north from the high, stretching to MN and the western Great Lakes. GOES16 showed a shield of cloud cover within the cyclonic flow stretching across the Great Lakes and including Indiana. Clear skies were found to the southwest with the associated high, while northwest flow aloft has allowed mid and high clouds within that flow to stream across the upper midwest. The earlier snow showers/flurries have exited.

Tonight...

Northwest upper flow is expected to continue...allowing a steady stream of mid and high clouds to push across Indiana overnight. Meanwhile within the lower levels the surface high is expected to build eastward, allowing the ridge axis to push across Indiana through the night. Forecast soundings show a dry column within the lower levels with some saturation aloft, which is indicative of the passing high clouds. Thus after this pesky stratus deck exits, skies will be partly cloudy overnight. Warm air advection is in play tonight on westerly winds aloft. Thus will trend lows to the middle 20s.

Monday...

Another dry, quiet weather day will be in store. Indiana will remain under NW flow aloft while an upper level disturbance pushed across Michigan and the Great Lakes. This forcing will stay well north of central Indiana. Strong surface high pressure will be settling across the deep south. This will result in a dry and mild southerly flow in place across Indiana. Time heights show a dry column through the day as do the time height sections. Thus will expect a partly cloudy and warmer day. Warm air advection will continue to be in play, and this will allow temperatures to recover to the lower to middle 40s for highs.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 242 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

With very brief exception, upper level longwave troughing will be present across the eastern portion of the country throughout much of the week and into the coming weekend. This will produce a general cooling trend through the work week and weekend, as multiple individual shortwaves and cold fronts drop through the region.

Precipitation chances will arrive as early as Tuesday afternoon with the first cold front, though temperatures should be warm enough in the low levels for this to fall as rain Tuesday into Tuesday night. A secondary cold front accompanied by the main push of Arctic air follows shortly after on Wednesday, which will allow a gradual changeover of rain to snow Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night, with some potential for light accumulations.

A brief break is expected Thursday, though there is at least some potential for lake effect flurries to sneak into central Indiana, before the next systems in the wave train bring additional low snow chances Thursday night into Saturday night. Guidance inconsistencies prevent more than low to middling chance PoPs at this point, but additional light accumulations cannot be ruled out. Yet another reinforcing shot of Arctic air appears likely, which will bring lows down into the teens most nights and highs no warmer than the low to mid 30s, with several days likely to struggle to get out of the 20s.

Wind chill temperatures will be in the single digits at times from mid week onward, with subzero wind chills not out of the question depending upon snow and cloud cover.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 625 PM EST Sun Jan 11 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings improving to VFR between 02-05Z

- Wind gusts between 22-30 kts possible on Monday

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR later this evening into tonight as high pressure builds. VFR conditions are then expected for the remainder of the period.

Westerly winds will become southwesterly tonight and diminish slightly before increasing again Monday morning. Wind gusts between 22-30 kts are possible during the day Monday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.