textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH at times today and Thursday

- Wet pattern through the week and into the weekend, with multiple rounds of showers and storms expected, which may produce renewed flooding along area waterways

- A few strong to severe storms and locally heavy rainfall are possible across mainly northern portions of central Indiana late today and tonight

- Potential for additional heavy rainfall and severe weather for late Thursday and again late Saturday

- Drier and cooler weather for early next week

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday Night)

Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

A frontal zone to the north will slowly push southward into the region late today into tonight. A good surface pressure gradient, steep low level lapse rates, and strong low level flow will combine to produce wind gusts to around 40 MPH at times this afternoon, despite increasing mid and high cloud ahead of the approaching front and as a consequence of upstream convection. Additionally, despite this cloud cover, temperatures should climb well into the 70s across the area, with the low 80s likely south.

As the boundary approaches the area later today and moves into the region tonight, shower and storm chances will increase from north to south across the area. Moderate instability developing along and ahead of the boundary coupled with ample deep layer shear will present the potential for a few strong to severe storms, with the best chances over the north late this afternoon into this evening. How early the severe threat begins will depend upon the activity of one or more remnant outflow boundaries from ongoing convection over eastern Iowa/northern Illinois. Earlier activity would be more likely to pose a threat for all hazards, with wind becoming more of a concern with time as upscale growth becomes more probable.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms will be likely tonight into Wednesday evening as the front stalls in the region before lifting back northward Wednesday night as a warm front. Despite only subtle midlevel disturbances, strong frontal forcing in a deeply moist environment will work to produce these showers and storms, which may produce heavy rainfall at times as precipitable water values approach or exceed climatological maximum for the time of year. Given ample rainfall and flooding in recent weeks, will have to closely monitor hydrologic situation with time, particularly as multiple rounds of precipitation occur. Current hydrologic ensemble forecasts indicate a substantial likelihood of at least minor flooding developing this week along much of the Wabash and portions of the White and East Fork White as well.

A much more substantial upper level low will drive a stronger surface system into the Great Lakes Thursday into Thursday night, bringing high PoPs for showers and thunderstorms back to the area. The even more substantial surface pressure gradient will produce another quite windy day on Thursday, with gusts pushing 40 MPH again likely. Additionally, sufficient instability and shear is likely to exist for another at least minor severe threat Thursday into Thursday night, though uncertainty is obviously greater with time.

With the exception of Wednesday, with the front in the area, temperatures will be well above normal, as much as 20 to 25 degrees. Even Wednesday appears likely to still be above normal across much of the area, if cooler than today and Thursday.

LONG TERM (Friday through Monday)

Issued at 325 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Friday into Saturday Night....

A progressive upper pattern is suggested to be in place as we start Friday. The wave of forcing dynamics producing Thursday's rain will have exited east, while weak ridging builds across the upper midwest. Meanwhile a stronger upper trough and low will emerging from MT and WY.

Models suggest the frontal boundary left in the wake of Thursday's systems will get hung up over northern Indiana, keeping Central Indiana within the warm sector on Friday. Forecast soundings suggest dry mid and upper levels through the day with some saturation within the lower levels through the day. The dry air aloft looks to be due to subsidence from the weak upper ridging aloft. This should allow for mainly a dry and warm day, but small chances for rain cannot be ruled out because of the lingering frontal boundary and the warm and moist surface flow within the warm sector.

This warm and an moist air mass with little forcing available looks to remain in place on Friday night and into early Saturday. Thus at this point many dry hours will be expected, but pops cannot be removed due to the low, stray shower chance. Temperatures on Friday and again on Saturday will remain rather warm, and above normal as we reside within the warm sector. Highs in the 70s will be common.

The best chances for rain will be on Saturday afternoon and Saturday Night. The previously mentioned upper support over MT and WY will arrive across Central Indiana by Saturday afternoon, and the upper wave will pass through Saturday Night. This systems will drag a cold front across Indiana on Saturday evening and Saturday night as low pressure moves through through the Great Lakes. Given the favorable ingredients for precipitation, showers and thunderstorms will be expected and high pops will be used. Confidence for rain on Saturday afternoon and night is growing.

Sunday and Monday...

Outside the chance for a lingering morning showers behind the front on Sunday morning, Sunday and Monday will be mainly dry days across central Indiana. The upper trough axis is suggested to exit east of Indiana while ridging over the western CONUS builds. This will lead to leeside subsidence flowing across the northern plains and allow surface high pressure to develop and build across Indiana on Sunday afternoon into Monday. The cooler, Canadian high pressure system will provide slightly below normal temperatures, with highs in the low 50s.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 652 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Impacts:

- Low Level Wind Shear through 14Z

- Southwest winds gusting 20-25KT early, gradually increasing to 30-35KT during the afternoon

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms after 00-02Z this evening

Discussion:

VFR conditions will persist through much of the period. Elongated low pressure along a surface cold front to our northwest will produce wind gusts at times through this afternoon, generally from 200-220 degrees. Gusts this morning will be 20-25KT at times, strengthening this afternoon to 30-35KT.

Additionally, strong low level flow will produce borderline LLWS conditions at times, with 2kft winds around 230 degrees at 40-50KT across the area. Will carry LLWS at all sites until the low level jet weakens slightly mid morning.

As the front drops into the area this evening, chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase, particularly over the north. Will carry prevailing showers at LAF after 00Z with a VCTS mention. Otherwise will carry a PROB30 thunder mention after 00Z at IND/HUF and 02Z at BMG. Occasional MVFR conditions will be possible in the stronger showers/storms.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.