textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms pushing northward, through the afternoon. Potential for severe winds and hail this evening into tonight.

- Cooler and rainy on Tuesday. Heavier rain late Tuesday could lead to localized flooding.

- Largely below normal this upcoming week, with multiple chances for additional rain.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 325 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

This afternoon, scattered showers with isolated lightning are slowly pushing northward. Winds aloft are sitting around 50-55 mph, with gusts up to 50 mph periodically mixing down to the ground within stronger showers. Outside of the rain, gusts of 20-35 mph are also mixing down and these winds are expected to continue into the early overnight hours.

More showers and storms are expected to arrive this evening, ahead of a cold front that will be pushing from NW to SE through from tonight through early Wednesday morning. There is the potential for severe storms this evening to tonight ahead of the front as winds aloft and instability increase, potentially enough to overcome the limited moisture at that time. Main threats will be damaging winds as well as hail. The tor threat doesn't look great, but it is non- zero. The severe threat is expected to come to an end within a few hours after midnight, but scattered showers and storms will continue. Models show an additional surge of moisture from the S/SW to arrive Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours then prompting localized flooding concerns, particularly across our south. In total with this system, 1-2 inches are forecasted through Wednesday morning, but locally higher amounts, again mainly in the south, can't be ruled out.

Also with the front, cooler temperatures arrive tomorrow and last through much of the rest of the work week. Rain should come to an end by Wednesday morning or midday, exiting to the SE.

Overall upper pattern remains unchanged for Thursday and on. Models suggest the upper low that provided the cold front remaining over eastern Canada, keeping the continued cyclonic flow in place aloft over much of the eastern 1/2 of the country including Indiana. This will keep a steady stream of below normal temperatures in place across Indiana from Thursday through the weekend. Meanwhile at the surface, a series of weak highs and lows will look to pass. High pressure is expected to push across the area on THursday, before a weak trough passes on Friday. Another high arrives for Saturday followed by a slightly more organized low on Sunday. Given the cyclonic flow in place aloft, and forecast soundings suggest cold air aloft with steep lapse rates available each day, daily convection cannot be ruled out and for the moment, additional support appears available on Friday and Sunday. Thus daily chances for rain will be expected in the forecast, however, this will be mainly due to daily diurnal chances and the passing of the trough and low on Friday and Sunday respectively. Overall, high confidence of periodic showers during this period, but low confidence on specific timing.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 217 PM EDT Mon May 4 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered showers and storms through this evening at all sites - Gusty SW winds of 20-30 kt into the overnight hours - Additional thunderstorms arriving from NW to SE after 02Z - Low MVFR to IFR ceilings starting early to mid morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions to start off the period as some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the area. Better rain and storm chances arrive later this evening and last through much of day tomorrow. SW wind gusts of 20-30 kt should persist to around midnight before weakening. Can't rule out LLWS overnight after gusts diminish, but looked scattered and confidence wasn't high enough to include in the TAFs.

Ceilings are expected to drop to MVFR and eventually IFR as a cold front moves through, starting early morning. Visibilities should also drop to MVFR within the rain as well.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.