textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Wind gusts between 20-35 mph possible on Thursday with an elevated fire weather threat during the afternoon.

- Numerous rain showers are expected Friday with an isolated t-storm possible, dry weather is expected for the weekend.

- More rain chances on Monday through Wednesday may bring receding rivers back into flood stages for some areas with active weather potentially continuing beyond the 7 day forecast period.

- Above normal temperatures expected through early next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1033 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Some minor changes made to the forecast this evening. Tonight, we've lowered the anticipated low temperature a bit in rural areas as winds are diminishing quickly. Though it is not expected to be calm, with speeds roughly between 5-10kt, it should be enough for decent radiative cooling. We've added the mention of sprinkles, in addition to showers/thunderstorms further north, tomorrow morning. A cold front to our north and some dissipating precipitation is may creep into our northern counties at times. Finally, we've upped high temperatures Thursday as mixing looks to be rather efficient. We've also bumped wind gusts up and lowered dew points using the same reasoning.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 245 PM EDT Wed Apr 8 2026

This afternoon through Thursday...

Mostly quiet weather conditions are expected as surface riding extends back into central Indiana from a surface high centered near northeast portions of the CONUS. Return flow combined with a strengthening MSLP gradient between the departing high and an approaching low pressure system near the Canadian/US border has helped warm up temperatures significantly. Highs well in the 60s to near 70F this afternoon are about 20 degrees warmer than yesterday. Look for even warmer temperatures well in the 70s on Thursday due to stronger southwesterly flow.

Latest CAMs are suggesting the potential for 20 to 35 mph gusts tomorrow ahead of an approaching front associated with the aforementioned system. Between increasing diurnal mixing through the day and a strong LLJ weakening during the day, it appears there could be a sweet spot for these strong winds. The strongest gusts are likely going to occur from mid morning through the early to mid afternoon hours before gusts diminish. Some increase in clouds ahead of the approaching front may limit daytime mixing though which limits confidence slightly regarding the intensity of wind gusts.

While mostly mundane weather is expected, there is a low chance for a few showers or a stray thunderstorm across the far north as the front approaches. Weak forcing and very limited moisture should largely inhibit convective development though with POPs only around 10 to 20 percent. Latest CAMs are even less bullish keeping central Indiana completely dry so would not be shocked to see rain chances completely removed in the overnight forecast update.

There is an elevated fire weather threat Thursday afternoon due to diurnal mixing promoting minimum RH values around 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon along with the strong southwesterly winds and drying fuels.

Thursday Night through Friday Night...

Most guidance depicts the aforementioned frontal boundary stalling across northern Indiana Thursday night as the parent trough pushes further northeast across Canada. An additional shortwave moving in on Friday will help to eventually push the front through central Indiana. Low-level convergence along the front along with more favorable large scale scent from a passing shortwave to the north supports increasing rain chances. Expect numerous showers during the day and perhaps a few storms. Thunder chances are quite low, around 20 percent, due to weak instability. Drier air filtering in behind the front should lead to decreasing rain chances late Friday afternoon into the overnight hours.

Saturday and Sunday...

Moderate upper ridging is expected to be moving through Indiana and the Great Lakes on Saturday and Sunday. This will be accompanied by an area of surface high pressure moving through the Great Lakes on Saturday and reaching New England by Sunday. Thus dry weather and mainly partly cloudy skies will be expected. Surface flow around the high on Saturday will be southeasterly, however on Sunday as the high pushes farther east, warmer, southerly flow will develop across Indiana. This will result in Sunday being a bit warmer than Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...

A wetter, rainy pattern is expected to take shape as we start the next workweek. Constant rain is not expected and there will be many dry hours, but chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist each day.

Aloft, a moderate trough is expected to be in place over the western CONUS, while a weaker ridge is in place over the eastern third of the country. This will result in a southwest flow in place across the Ohio Valley. Multiple upper waves and energy are expected to pass within the flow on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, providing forcing. Within the lower levels, southerly flow is expected to be in place on Monday and Tuesday, allowing warmer and more humid air to flow into the Ohio Valley. This combined with the passing forcing aloft will provide sufficient forcing for showers and storm development. An even better setup for rain looks to take shape on Wednesday as a frontal boundary is expected to slowly sag across Indiana from the northwest. This will result in an additional ingredient for rain, building confidence. Monday through Wednesday looks to remain within the warm sector as southerly flow will remain in place. Look for temperatures to remain above seasonal normals as highs will reach the 70s.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 208 AM EDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS through 14z for LAF and IND

- Southwesterly wind gusts of 20-25 kt expected today, potential for higher gusts up to 30kt

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

Low pressure passing to the north of Indiana tonight will induce a potent low-level jet, allowing for a period of low-level wind shear (LLWS) around 40-45 knots. Wind shear continues into the morning hours before diurnal mixing causes it to diminish.

Diurnal mixing helps transfer momentum from the low-level jet to the surface, so as the LLWS diminishes surface gusts are expected to pick up. Southwesterly wind gusts up to 25kt are expected, with the potential for gusts as high as 30kt. Winds gradually diminish during the afternoon as low pressure to the north moves eastward into Canada.

There is another chance of LLWS late tonight, into the 30-hr period, but lacking confidence that far out so have left it out of the IND TAF for now.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.