textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Partly cloudy and mild tonight and again on Tuesday

- Gusty winds end this evening. Gusty winds up to 30 mph return on Tuesday and again Wednesday

- Low rain chances Tuesday night into early Wednesday

- Snow showers at times Wednesday into the early weekend with minor accumulations around 1 inch possible.

- Well-below normal temperatures later this week into early next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 955 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with only minor adjustments needed. Current surface analysis depicts a strong surface high centered over the deep south with ridging extending north to Indiana. Surface ridging over the area will provide quiet weather conditions through the overnight. A weak impulse aloft is promoting enhanced high clouds, but look for these clouds to clear out over the next hours as the subtle disturbance departs.

The pressure gradient between the aforementioned surface high across the south and a low pressure system near Manitoba Canada has kept southwesterly winds elevated. The warm southwest flow combined with high clouds have limited diurnal cooling. Current temperatures range from the mid-upper 30s and are expected to bottom out in the low 30s.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 319 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows a large area of high pressure stretching from Texas across the deep south to the Virginias. Low pressure was well to the north over Hudson Bay. This was resulting SSW flow across Central Indiana. A moderate pressure gradient was in place across Indiana, resulting in gusty winds. Aloft, water vapor showed weak ridging over the Rockies, which was leading to northwest flow aloft over Indiana. Water vapor imagery shows abundant Pacific upper level moisture within the flow across the upper midwest flowing toward Indiana. GOES16 shows a band of clouds over IN, exiting quickly to the southeast.

Tonight...

Little overall change is expected tonight as the strong high pressure system to the south continues to block gulf moisture and dominate the lower levels across Indiana, the Ohio valley and points south. Aloft a wave within the northwest flow will begin to deepen and push across Central Canada, but this forcing will remain well north of Indiana while we remain under the influence of the NW flow aloft and little in the way of forcing available. As seen on satellite, high clouds upstream will pass through evening and overnight, resulting in partly cloudy skies. Forecast soundings are on board with this, show dry air within the lower levels but saturation aloft from time to time.

Although the pressure gradient will not change too much overnight, as heating and mixing is lost tonight, gusts will diminish. Warm air advection remains in play tonight. This will allow for a warmer night than last as the previous cold air mass departs further. Lows in the lower 30s will be expected.

Tuesday...

The previously mentioned wave moving through Canada is expected to get deeper on Tuesday and begin to dive southeast toward the Great Lakes. This feature will remain too far north within the NW flow aloft over our region to impact Indiana. The ongoing Pacific NW flow aloft is expected to remain, allowing for continued passing high clouds. Within the lower levels strong high pressure in place across the deep south will also block gulf moisture and continue to dominate our weather. A moderate pressure gradient will once again be in place across Central Indiana, allowing for some gusty winds through the afternoon. Again, forecast soundings are on board showing dry air within the lower levels. Thus a partly cloudy sky will be expected.

Warm air advection continues on Tuesday as 850mb temps surge to near 7C by mid day, before a mid level trough passes by late afternoon. This along with good mixing in place should allow for highs to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Looking ahead, a much strong cold front will be lurking across the Great Lakes looking to bring much colder temperatures later this workweek.

LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 320 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The large scale pattern during the extended will be dominated by a longwave trough over the eastern CONUS with ridging centered along the west coast, classic for a positive PNA pattern coupled with a negative AO pattern. This pattern tends to lead to well below normal temperatures (10-15 degrees) as well as generally near to below normal precipitation for central Indiana.

The long term starts with the first of several cold fronts that will push south through central Indiana late Tuesday night. Wednesday's high temperatures will be set before sunrise as colder air continues to filter south through the period, as 850 mb temps fall from near 0 C at 06Z Wednesday to -10 C by 18Z Wednesday. In addition, light rain will be possible along the front in a region of modest frontogenesis. In the wake of the front, strong CAA will lead to gusty winds from 25-30 mph during the day with near steady temps in the 30s. Deep layer N-NW BL fetch coming straight off Lake Michigan will support snow showers into the NE parts of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon into early Thursday. Have maintained the minor accumulation and 50 pop wording in this region.

After a brief respite from the winter weather on Thursday as shortwave ridging moves across the region, another shortwave will dive south into the Great Lakes. Despite the presence of strong frontal forcing, the pattern looks very favorable for a combination mid level PVA forcing and orographic effect snow event. These events tend to be over productive and would not be surprised to see some areas along and east of I-65 receiving 1-2 inches. Recent NBM blend was trying to tone down the pops for Friday into early Saturday but increased them back to the previous 50 pops. Preference would have been to go even higher but will defer to later shifts for timing details of likely or greater potential.

Beyond the late week snow event, good agreement exist in the coldest air of the period moving into the region over the weekend as mid level height fields continue to lower. EPS and GEFS both show around -250 dm height anomalies for 500 mb this weekend. 850 mb temps around -15C anomalies also spread into central Indiana, translating to highs 15-25 F or about 15 degrees below normal.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 633 PM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds on Tuesday.

Discussion:

Indiana remains under the influence of high pressure centered over the deep south. This will provide VFR conditions through the period, but a strengthening pressure gradient ahead of an approaching system late Tuesday supports increasing winds. Wind gusts between 25-32 kts will be possible Tuesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.