textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers Expected today; Isolated thunderstorms possible.

- Rain chances will persist through the weekend. Heavy Rain resulting in flash flooding cannot be ruled out Saturday afternoon and evening

- Additional rain chances possible at times next week

DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)

Issued at 249 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows low pressure in place over western IL. The low was beginning to push toward Central Indiana, providing cyclonic flow across the area. Radar shows a wave of showers over Illinois, poised to push in to western Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery showed an upper low over IA and MO, pushing east toward Indiana. strong ridging was found over the western CONUS while weaker ridging was found over the east coast. These ridges will lead to the eventual cutoff of the low. Moisture was plentiful across across Indiana with dew points in the upper 60s.

Today...

Models show the low pressure system pushing into SW Indiana today, with continued broad cyclonic flow across our state. Forecast soundings shows deep saturation with pwats as high at 1.9 inches this afternoon. CAPE and instability appear minimal. HRRR does not show a shield of rain arriving, but rather spokes or waves passing across the forecast area from time to time. Thus confidence for rain will be high today, but precipitation is more likely to be on and off through the day as these spokes pivot. High pops will be used. Given the expected clouds and rain, highs will struggle to reach the mid 70s.

Tonight through Monday...

Little overall change is expected the weather tonight through Sunday Night. The upper low is expected to be cut off from the main flow and stall over SE IND and KY. This will place our area on the north side of the low where low cigs and cyclonic flow and light rain and drizzle will be present, especially tonight. Again on Sunday, instability appears limited with little to no CAPE available but high pwats remain. Thus again, confidence is high for continued on and off showers through at least Sunday Night.

On Monday, rain chances will persist although forecast soundings begin to dry out top down. The low, positioned to the southeast, will allow a cooler and drier flow of air on NE winds. Lower levels remain saturated amid cyclonic flow. Thus the heavier rain threat should be diminished by this point but very light rain showers will remain possible.

Clouds and rain through the period will limit daytime heating, allowing for highs mainly the 70s, while low remain in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday through Friday...

An active weather pattern is expected for much of the work week ahead. Models suggest the lingering cut off low will finally exit on Tuesday as a weak trough and sag within the upper flow across the CONUS. This will result in a shallow trough aloft over Indiana during this period. This quick flow aloft, across the northern CONUS will bring several embedded short waves across Indiana through the work week providing chances for precipitation. With the lower levels, weak high pressure is suggested to to be moving through the Great Lakes and northern Central Indiana on Tuesday into Wednesday. The northeasterly surface flow may limit rain chances somewhat on Tuesday and Wednesday, but still some weak forcing will be passing with dew points in the 60s. Forecast soundings at these times show mainly a dry column.

Higher confidence for rain will be on Thursday and Friday as the high drifts to the east which will open up warm and more humid south and southwest flow. This in combination with the forcing passing aloft will necessitate daily chances on Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 130 AM EDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Cigs deteriorating to MVFR through this TAF period.

- IFR conditions possible after 020000Z.

- Periods of SHRA at times through the period, with isolated TSRA possible.

Discussion:

An upper low over NW IL will begin to push to Central Indiana this TAF Period. Spokes of showers pivoting around the low are expected to pass through the day and CIGS are expected to fall to MVFR. Confidence for precise timing of any wave of rain is low. Thus will handle precip mentions with large windows of VCSH and focus on short term updates with prevailing mentions when confidence is higher.

Isolated TSRA will be possible, but instability appears limited. Thus will leave this mention out for now.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.