textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread rain showers Tonight to midday Sunday...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches for most locations. Best chances across southern central Indiana

- Continued warming into the next work week

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 206 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Surface analysis late this afternoon shows strong high pressure in place over the Carolinas and low pressure was found over OK. This was resulting in a southerly flow of mild air streaming into the Ohio Valley. GOES19 shows a cloud shield associated with the approaching low pressure system continuing to arrive across Central Indiana from IL and MO. Radar shows a large area of precipitation preceding the low pressure system over KS and MO, approaching SW Indiana. Aloft, a short wave trough was found over the southwestern high plains while weak ridging was found over the Ohio Valley. A plume of moisture was shown within the water vapor imagery ahead of the trough axis, spreading rain across eastern TX southern IL and MO.

Tonight...

Wet weather is ahead for the southern half of Central Indiana. Models suggest the surface low over OK will push to the lower Mississippi River valley, along with the associated short wave upper trough. This should allow for the plume of moisture ahead of this system to spread across KY/TN and into southern Indiana. The 295K GFS Isentropic surface shows strong lift arriving across central Indiana this evening with specific humidity near 5 g/kg. Furthermore, forecast sounding trend toward deep saturation across the southern half of the forecast area overnight as well. HRRR shows showers arriving late this afternoon in SW Central Indiana and overspreading much of the forecast area through the evening and overnight. Our forecast area will be on the northern edge of this system, which will result in a sharp cut-off for precipitation. Areas north of a Crawfordsville-Lebanon-Tipton and Muncie line will have much lesser chances for rain overnight. Farther south, confidence is high for rain and high pops will be used. Given the expected clouds and rain, lows in the lower to mid 40s will be expected.

Sunday...

Weather will be improving as the day progresses on Sunday. The low pressure system of the previous night will continue its progress eastward on Sunday morning, slowly exiting the region. Moisture associated with the low will be shifted farther to the east also as dry air aloft on northwest winds begin to spill into Central Indiana. Forecast soundings as the day begins show a saturated column, as impacts from the low are lingering, but by mid day, top down subsidence is seen within the column, resulting clearing arriving from the northwest as the low is expected to depart and surface high pressure builds from IL and WI. Some low pops may be required across the southeastern parts of the forecast area on Sunday morning before a dry afternoon results. Highs should be able to reach the upper 40s and lower 50s.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 206 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Following the passage of the Saturday night system, strong AVA between the departing trough and emerging upper ridge will lead to significant low level pressure gains across the Ohio Valley. This will lead to a developing surface high by Sunday night, with mostly clear skies expected. This surface high will also work to calm synoptic winds.

Favorable radiational cooling from light winds and clear skies over damp grounds may promote fog development Sunday night into Monday morning, primarily in the lower Wabash Valley with its closer proximity to the surface high and greater latent heat fluxes from prior rainfall.

The aforementioned emerging ridge will aid in 850-750mb temperature gains Monday through Wednesday, with much much above normal surface temperatures expected early next week. The should culminate in 60s to potentially a few areas reaching 70 degrees by Wednesday as a warm front passes well to the north and near surface winds switch to the SW. The record high for February 18th (Wednesday) is 66F, of which will be in play for Indianapolis.

Much of the forcing from the associated system should remain north of the area midweek limiting rain chances, but there is a low 20 percent chance for isolated showers as the warm front lifts through. Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence towards late week. Ensemble solutions generally show a shortwave aloft promoting surface cyclogenesis near the Central Plains before the low pressure system then moves towards Indiana. This suggest an active pattern and higher rain chances are in the forecast, but exact details remain uncertain.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 553 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026

Impacts:

- Rain overspreading the area during the evening into overnight

- Deteriorating conditions to MVFR with periods of IFR likely, particularly late tonight into Sunday morning

Discussion:

Strong low pressure will pass well to our south overnight, however a rain shield associated with deformation north of the system will overspread the area tonight, with the most intense and long lasting rainfall expected over the southern half of the area.

Rain has begun at HUF/BMG, and will likely arrive at IND by around 02Z. LAF chances will be a bit lower, though they should see some rain after about 07Z. Ceilings and visibilities will deteriorate to MVFR within a few hours of precip onset as residual dry air in the low levels erodes. Periods of IFR will be possible in the more intense bursts of rain, with some prevailing IFR at most sites for at least a few hours late tonight into Sunday morning, before rain moves out of the area and conditions begin to improve. VFR will likely return to most sites by mid to late afternoon Sunday.

Winds will be below 10KT through the period, and may be variable at times, particularly tonight. Trends will be toward more easterly or northeasterly winds overnight, becoming more northerly late in the period.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.