textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Generally dry weather and a steady warming trend mid to late week

- Peak heat indices around to slightly above 100 degrees each afternoon mid-late week

- Chances for showers and storms return Friday through the weekend, primarily during the afternoon and evening

DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 239 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Much of the upper level pattern over the next 7 days will be dominated by a broad ridge across the CONUS. This ridge will remain persistent as a Rex Block forms today and tomorrow, keeping the ridge axis locked over the central US. In return, generally warmer than normal conditions are expected across the central and eastern US with subtle surface condition changes depending on low level features.

For today and tomorrow, central Indiana will be situated on the periphery of a weak cutoff low to the south and a closed high to the north. This will place a very weak confluence boundary just to our south and mainly subsidence along and north of the I-70 corridor. In return, slightly warmer temperatures are expected closer to the surface high pressure, and thus heat index values will likely near and potentially exceed 100 for both Wednesday and Thursday. Within this high pressure, stagnant air will also lead to greater ozone in the PBL, and therefor lower air quality.

As we approach the weekend, the surface high to the north will begin to break down, allowing for weak mid level moisture return. This will lead to destabilization each afternoon Friday through Sunday with diurnal showers and thunderstorms likely. Friday will likely have the greatest coverage of thunderstorms as a shortwave will induce a narrow, weak LLJ. A few organized clusters may form out of this weak LLJ on Friday with a low risk for damaging wind gusts, but otherwise severe weather is not expected over the weekend.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 121 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Impacts:

- BCFG with 3SM VIS at KLAF between 09-12Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period except for a brief period of BCFG at KLAF tomorrow morning.

A smoke layer is likely to linger aloft today and tonight, highlighted by the FEW250 group. Winds will be somewhat variable at KIND and KLAF today through tonight, with KLAF become calm early tomorrow morning. At the southern sites, winds will remain easterly, transitioning to variable tomorrow.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ021-029>031- 036>042-046>049.