textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms at times today

- Locally heavy rainfall possible today

- Above normal temperatures expected through Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Today through tonight...

Current KIND radar imagery depicts a broken line of showers and a few storms lifting north across far south-central IN. This convection is associated with a weak disturbance which will continue gradually lifting north before stalling towards daybreak. Modest forcing from the disturbance combined with anomalous moisture supports increasing rain chances through the morning. Uncertainty remains on whether or not far NW counties will see measurable rainfall as some dry air remains in place evident by dewpoints still around the mid-upper 50s. Gradual moisture advection should allow for top-down saturation with time though.

A brief lull or period of lower convective coverage is possible towards mid morning depending on cold pool development and convective overturning. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist airmass will likely then lead to additional convective development this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected due to relatively weak deep-layer shear, but small hail cannot be ruled out as latest CAMs suggest moderate destabilization occurring by the afternoon. A deep warm cloud layer should limit the threat though while also promoting efficient rainfall rates. Slow moving storms along with the potential for brief training may result in locally heavy rainfall.

A shortwave moving in from the northwest late today will help to finally push the disturbance out of the area late today. Look for rain chances to quickly diminish during the late afternoon and evening hours as drier air filters in. Expect another warm-humid day in the upper 70s to low 80s. Slightly drier air filtering in and clearing skies should then allow for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight.

Thursday through early next week...

Long range guidance continues to depict an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week through early next week. Expect another warm day Thursday in the low 80s with highs then holding nearly steady in the mid to upper 70s through early next week.

A few models have hinted at the ridge retrograding slightly, allowing for a shortwave to move in aloft early next week. These solutions are outliers, but this will continue to be monitored as this could impact temperatures. Precipitation still appears very unlikely during the period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 658 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Impacts:

- IFR ceilings at HUF/IND/BMG improving to MVFR later this morning. Brief period of LIFR ceilings possible

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected today

- Brief MVFR or worse visibilities possible in heavier showers and storms for all TAF sites, except KLAF

Discussion:

IFR ceilings are ongoing at IND/BMG/HUF, but will likely improve to MVFR towards mid-morning. Look for MVFR ceilings to then scatter out Wednesday afternoon. KLAF should remain VFR through the period. Periods of LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out near IND/HUF/BMG.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected today with a weak disturbance centered over the area. Brief MVFR or worse visibilities are possible in heavier showers or storms. Winds may be light and variable at times, but the wind direction should predominately be east-northeasterly for most sites except BMG.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.