textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms move in overnight. Strong storms and heavy rain remain threats.

- Hot and humid again Thursday.

- Thunderstorms likely again late Thursday into Thursday night. Strong to severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler weather for the weekend with near average temperatures.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1039 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Central Indiana is in a lull in convection approaching late evening. Outflow from earlier convection stalled just north of Indy, with air cooler to the north (70s), while lower 80s continue south of the boundary. Of note though is that winds have returned to southerly most areas.

Regional radar shows a line of convection moving across northern Illinois. The closest part of the line is moving southeast, while portions to the west are moving more easterly. Outflow is getting ahead of the line across northeast Illinois.

Expect the showers and thunderstorms to gradually move into the area into the overnight hours. Strong to potentially severe storms remain possible given remaining instability and shear. However, will have to watch and see if the outflow gets too far ahead of the approaching convection and allows the line to weaken.

Heavy rain and subsequent flooding also remain as threats, especially if the line were to slow.

Lowered temperatures in areas that experienced rain this evening and are the more likely to see decent rain and rain cooled air overnight.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 307 PM EDT Wed Jun 10 2026

As of this afternoon, central Indiana has low lying cumulus clouds that have thinned out over the past hour with slight drying aloft but satellite is already showing the cumulus clouds filling back in from the SW. CAMs continue to try to have isolated showers pop up this afternoon, but confidence remains low on those occurring due to a lack of lift and just not enough instability yet. The next best chance for showers and storms will be this evening into tonight with slight severe risk in our far NW.

The pattern aloft is characterized by ridging over the eastern US and into Canada with troughing over the western US. A slow-moving vort max displaced from the jet stream meanders over the Great Lakes. This feature is what has been bringing the near daily rain chances to Indiana lately. As the western trough moves eastward, the vort max will eject northeastward. Southwesterly flow aloft then intensifies, bringing the warming trend for today and tomorrow.

High temperatures through tomorrow will be near 90, with dew points into the low to mid 70s. Max heat indices are forecasted to be between 100 and 105, which may lead to enhanced heat risk for vulnerable populations.

Can't rule out the chance for a few showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Despite minimal forcing, it doesn't take much in such a humid environment to generate some convective activity. Buoyant forces alone can get the job done, however as mentioned above, confidence is low as in hot humid environments, will be hard to pin point exactly where these showers/storms develop if they do in fact develop. Activity likely remains isolated to scattered during the afternoon.

Things change as we head into tonight. Convection initiated from the approaching trough should propagate southeastward out of Illinois. This activity is likely to be more organized, especially if it develops a cold pool and can consolidate into a line. Guidance suggests that these storms may be outflow dominant as it heads deeper into Indiana and the system is expected to lose steam as it approaches our forecast area. If the storms maintain their strength, can't rule out some severe weather potential with damaging winds as the main threat and our north having the highest threat. Additionally, given recent rainfall, a flooding threat could again materialize.

After a mostly dry day tomorrow, another round of convection associated with a wave ejecting from the broader trough looks to arrive late Thursday. Guidance shows a bit more energy in the atmosphere which could lead to severe thunderstorms at times, especially northwestern portions of central Indiana. Like this evening, storms likely become outflow dominant as they head southeast away from the best forcing and shear. Strong to severe wind gusts and localized flooding are the primary hazards with the highest threat in our NW.

Once that system and its cold front pass through late Thursday night, a transition to a cooler and less active pattern appears likely. Broad troughing aloft looks to persist this weekend and into next week, with near-average temperatures (highs near 80 and lows near 60) along with lower humidity. A few weak waves embedded within the broader trough may bring rain chances on Sunday and then again on Tuesday or Wednesday of next week. These are subtle features and are hard to pin point this far out. So we will maintain only chance PoPs next week until the signal become clearer.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 151 AM EDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Impacts:

- Thunderstorms with strong gusty winds and brief IFR conditions developing between 06-09Z ending by 11-13Z.

- Gusty SW winds from 20-25 kts Thursday afternoon.

- Thunderstorms approaching KIND during freighter inbounds Thursday night.

Discussion:

Thunderstorms are advancing into Indiana from the west as of 06z, with strong to severe wind gusts reported in Illinois. Some weakening is expected as these progress through Indiana. Given the expected intensity of these thunderstorms, have added brief IFR vis and variable gusts over 35 kts for a 1-2 hr period both ahead of and in the wake of the convective line.

Residual showers behind the thunderstorm line will diminish by 13Z. Tomorrow should be characterized by VFR conditions and increasing SW wind gusts of 20-25 kts by afternoon.

Another convective line will move across central Indiana Thursday night possibly affecting KIND during the middle part of the freighter inbounds, and have added VCTS to account for the likelihood of this occurrence.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.