textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Well above normal temperatures through the middle of the upcoming week

- Locally heavy rainfall is again possible late Tuesday into Wednesday, which may prolong ongoing flooding

- Potential for stronger storms to impact the region Tuesday night and Wednesday

- Cooler temperatures for late this week

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)

Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

Thick stratus remains across the forecast area early this morning as moisture is trapped beneath a shallow yet sharp inversion around 925mb. W/NW winds remain brisk but have been steadily diminishing since last evening. 07Z temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s.

After the waterlogged last several days across the Ohio Valley...the region will finally get a breather from the active pattern for a few days as a broad area of high pressure drifts east from the southern Plains into the lower and middle Appalachians by Monday night. A quasi-zonal split flow regime aloft will maintain a mild Pacific origin airmass across much of the country with low level southerly flow advecting warmer air into the region once again by the early part of the week.

The back edge of the stratus is making steady progress eastward across Illinois early this morning and expect the stratus to begin mixing out in the Wabash Valley in the next few hours. Model soundings show the presence of very dry air above the inversion and as subsidence increases through the column this morning...this will help to erode the inversion with skies clearing across the entire forecast area through the morning. Mostly clear skies are then expected for the rest of the short term through Monday evening as subsidence and dry air settles across the Ohio Valley. Thin mid and high clouds may drift across the forecast area at times as subtle waves aloft pass through the northern Great Lakes.

The presence of a strong low pressure tracking east across Ontario and Quebec while the high passes by to the south will maintain a modest pressure gradient across the region and support breezy conditions focus especially during the afternoon today and Monday. Peak gusts to around 25 mph will be possible across the northern half of the forecast area in particular.

Temps...a slightly cooler airmass has overspread the region this morning but temperatures will remain at above normal levels through Monday. Low level thermals support highs in the upper 50s and lower 60s today...then near 70 degrees Monday as warm advection strengthens with the onset of southwesterly flow. Lows tonight will be in the lower and mid 40s.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)

Issued at 150 AM EST Sun Mar 8 2026

After the dry start to the work week...rain chances will return as early as Tuesday morning and continue through mid week as the northern jet stream and a cutoff low over the southwest U S ejecting east combine to promote broad moisture advection into the Ohio Valley along and ahead of a frontal zone stretching from a strong surface low over the Canadian Maritimes back to an area of lee cyclogenesis kicking out of the central Rockies.

Guidance has trended back toward more phasing of the cutoff low and the prevailing westerlies aloft...producing moist southwest flow into the region Tuesday night and Wednesday ahead of the surface low and an associated cold front tracking from the High Plains into the Great Lakes. The potential for heavy rainfall to impact the forecast area late Tuesday into the first half of Wednesday has increased along with a risk for more intense convection within a high shear- low instability regime ahead of the front.

Even with a 60 to 72 hour break in heavier rainfall for the region...antecedent conditions between the ongoing river flooding and waterlogged ground will mean that it will not take much in the way of high rainfall rates to produce renewed areal and perhaps flash flooding in addition to potentially prolonging if not exacerbating the river flooding. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rain are possible from late Tuesday through much of Wednesday with locally higher amounts. Will continue to monitor trends as the pattern evolves over the next few days.

After continued warmth Tuesday into early Wednesday with 70s likely yet again and especially on Tuesday when record highs may be threatened...cooler air will filter in with the passage of the front late Wednesday with more seasonable readings in the 40s and 50s into next weekend. Fast moving upper level waves to the north will bring periodic threats for light precipitation at times into the first part of next weekend. A stronger low pressure system will pivot across the area Sunday with signs of another opportunity for more plentiful rainfall. In the wake of this system...colder air will filter into the area with an amplified upper level ridge west-trough east developing in the 7 to 10 day time period.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 615 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings dissipating through mid morning, then VFR expected - Gusts to 20kts possible at KLAF this afternoon

Discussion:

Back edge of the stratus is about to clear KLAF and will gradually shift east of the terminals over the next few hours. Expect clear skies across the area by late morning with just a few mid and high clouds drifting across the region through early Monday.

Winds will back to southwest and increase to 10-15kts this afternoon Periodic gusts to 20kts are possible at KLAF. Light southerly flow is expected tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.