textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer Friday and Saturday with highs well into the 50s to low 60s

- Low chance for a mix of rain/snow Saturday night, no impacts expected

- Wintry mix possible Sunday Night through early Monday morning. Details uncertain at this point, but confidence is building for an event that will include rain, snow and mixed precipitation across Central Indiana and can't rule out a couple inches of snow accumulation.

- Heavy rainfall potential increasing for late next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 919 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Patchy fog has largely diminished this morning with skies clear across the region. 14Z temperatures ranged from the mid 30s to the lower 40s across the forecast area.

The forecast is in great shape heading forward through the rest of the day. The onset of stronger southwest flow will usher in a breezy afternoon with temperatures surging into the lower and middle 60s. The primary issue to monitor for later today is the potential for an increase in fire weather concerns as the combination of gusty southwest winds and RH values lowering to near 30% if not slightly lower into the 25-30% range will present an environment more conducive to an elevated fire threat. This will be most prevalent over the northern Wabash Valley where RH values will be lowest and gusts highest at 30-35mph this afternoon. Soils across the area do remain moist which will serve as a limiting factor to greater concerns. Will continue to monitor throughout the day.

Zone and grid updates out.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 227 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Ridging over the Intermountain West has kept the predominant NW flow over central Indiana this morning, with a surface high exiting to the east. Portions of the high will become elongated over southern Indiana this morning, leading to generally clear skies and calming winds. This along with greater latent heat fluxes from yesterdays precipitation will likely lead to patchy fog, especially within the river valleys this morning. Patchy fog is also possible along the Wabash River Valley, but visibilities are likely to remain above 3SM, with slightly greater low level flow. Any fog that does develop over the next few hours will quickly mix out after sunrise.

Today will mark the beginning of a change in the synoptic pattern as super-geostrophic flow over the aforementioned ridge will induce height falls and cyclogenesis over the Canadian Plains. This will strengthen the pressure gradient across the Great Lakes region, with strong SW flow reaching central Indiana late this morning through the evening. Within this SW flow, modest WAA will continue our warming trend with temperatures pushing into the low 60s this afternoon.

Modeled soundings indicate the mixing layer will likely reaching at least 4kft this afternoon, with a high likelihood of this inducing at least 20kt wind gusts. That said, given the strong, dry WAA regime, mixing is typically slightly deeper than guidance, with the mixing layer likely to push 5-6kft. This would tap into slightly greater momentum transfer, with occasional gusts of 30-35 MPH this afternoon over NW portions of central Indiana. This greater mixing will likely also lead to pockets of high dew points depressions with periods of RH values nearing 25% at times this afternoon.

Tonight, the aforementioned surface low will push into the Eastern Canadian provinces, with the pressure gradient following suite. Still, there should be enough of a gradient for weak winds to continue through a majority of the night, maintaining at 5-7kt.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 227 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

This weekend will begin with a strong upper low over north-central Canada exiting to the east and shifting the pattern over Indiana to a more quasi-zonal. At the surface, the associated cold front with the system will take the Saturday highs in the 50s to low 60s and drop them down to the upper 30s and low 40s Sunday. The cold front, while strong, does not progress much further south than the Ohio River. As such, an east-west oriented baroclinic zone likely becomes established across our area by the end of the weekend. Models are suggesting brief light snow possible Saturday night with a quick passing wave but confidence is low on if there would even be enough moisture to work with. Better chances for precipitation come late Sunday into Monday as a shortwave moves in from the west along the baroclinic zone. However, surface cyclogenesis appears muted, with upper-level forcing and overruning being the primary sources of lift.

Thermal profiles ahead of the approaching system are favorable for snow. However, the lower 3 km of the atmosphere is modeled to be very dry. This may delay precipitation onset somewhat as the dry layer gets eroded, which looks to begin sometime late Sunday or early Monday. Guidance has been trending weaker and further south over the past few days. This is likely because a weak system is pressing against such a strong surface high. In these circumstances, it does not take much to suppress these weak systems further south than guidance initially thinks. As of right now, the majority of guidance still brings accumulating snowfall to most of central Indiana, potentially up to a few inches. An area of mixed precipitation is favored across southern Indiana, closer to the baroclinic zone.

Heading into next week, a pattern change appears increasingly likely. Ensemble guidance shows quasi-zonal flow becoming more amplified with time. Deep troughing looks to develop out west, with ridging and strong high pressure over the eastern US. This allows the predominant flow pattern to become southwesterly over Indiana. Such a pattern favors warmer and wetter than average conditions. Global teleconnections support this, with both the North American Oscillation (NAO), and Arctic Oscillation (AO) trending positive, along with the Pacific North American pattern (PNA) trending negative.

The signal for significant rainfall is becoming stronger for the Midwest and Ohio River Valley. Both the GEFS and EPS show anomalous precipitable water values flowing into the region, with multiple systems emerging from the western trough. Ensemble mean QPF is high with values between 2 to 5 inches through next weekend. It is worth noting that any single deterministic model run should be taken with a grain of salt. However, the pattern and signal within ensemble guidance support heavy rainfall potential. Should such a scenario play out, then river flooding may become possible late next week onward. The primary axis of heavy rain may still shift north or south, so stay tuned for updates.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 615 AM EST Fri Feb 27 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR fog early this morning at KHUF and KBMG - SW wind gusts between 18-28kt likely this afternoon

Discussion:

A VFR cloud deck is now east of all TAF sites, with all sites under mostly clear skies as of 11Z. Near surface saturation along river valleys may lead to brief MVFR fog at KHUF, KLAF and KBMG this morning, but this should quickly mix out after 13Z.

Winds will initially begin out of SSW between 6-9kt, veering to SW this afternoon sustained between 12-15kt with gusts of 18-28kt. Gusts should die down shortly after dusk with winds veering between 03-14Z from the west to northeast all below 10kt.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.