textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms return late Sunday, with severe weather possible Sunday night.

- Breezy/windy again Sunday into Monday

- Much colder air early next week, lows in the teens Tuesday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1009 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Recent high winds quickly departed central Indiana earlier this evening as supporting potent storm system tracked out of Michigan into far southeastern Ontario. Fair weather as already settling into the region with sustained winds as of 930PM EDT at 10-20 mph for most locations...although 25 mph flow is hanging on at Anderson...while Terre Haute has diminished to 5 mph. Stronger breezes will track out of northeast zones over the next couple hours as weak surface ridging slides into Indiana. Winds to fall below 7 mph for all counties overnight tonight as flow veers to N/NE by daybreak Saturday. Partly cloudy skies will oversee readings falling to seasonably cool levels with most areas reaching 30-35F by 12Z.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 305 PM EDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Low pressure passing through lower Michigan with a tight MSLP gradient has produced widespread wind gusts between 45 to 65 mph. The strongest winds have been across the northeastern portion of our CWA, closer to the surface low. Winds are at their peak now, and should gradually diminish as the low pulls away. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories will be allowed to expire at 8pm.

Our attention then turns to this weekend with a second system expected to emerge from the Rockies on Saturday. This low pressure is expected to strengthen rapidly through the day Sunday while moving northeastward into the Great Lakes. Guidance is in good agreement showing a broad warm sector lifting northward in response to the developing low. Temperatures begin to climb through Saturday night, and may be warmer at sunrise Sunday than during the previous high temp Saturday afternoon. High temps on Sunday are expected to climb into the 70s.

The warmth will be driven by strong mass response, as mentioned above. A very strong low-level jet, between 60-80kt, is modeled to develop. Diurnal mixing during the day Sunday will promote strong wind gusts, between 40-50 mph, with some locally higher gusts possible. Winds likely continue into the evening/night as the surface low continues to strengthen.

A very sharp, strong cold front is modeled to accompany this system. With a broad warm sector with abundant moisture lifting north ahead of it, the possibility of severe weather appears increasingly likely. Model soundings show only modest instability, though models tend to under represent instability in advection-driven events such as this. Regardless, shear profiles are very impressive to say the least. Though just on the edge of their range, some high-resolution guidance depicts long, curved hodographs with 30-40kt of shear in the 0-1km layer.

Despite only modest lapse rates, strong frontal forcing is likely more than enough for thunderstorms to initiate. However, thunderstorms should largely be confined along the boundary itself, thus favoring a squall line over free-roaming warm sector storms. This, combined with the shear profiles, favors severe wind gusts and QLCS tornadoes as the primary hazards. In terms of timing, right now most guidance is locked onto the 00z to 09z timeframe. As such, this looks to be a nocturnal event. This does not mitigate the severe threat, however, since strong warm/moist advection is anticipated into the night.

As mentioned above, the cold front itself is very sharp. A quick drop in temperatures is expected once it passes through. Temperatures are shown by guidance to quickly plummet into the 30s/40s and even into the upper 20s by daybreak Monday. Most guidance is in good agreement showing a transition to snow by Monday morning. Potential accumulations are uncertain, given model differences with the position of the parent low and how quickly the temperature drops behind the front. Still, a dusting to an inch or two is possible. Temperatures plummeting into the 20s Monday morning may allow for icy/slick spots to develop on roadways.

Strong winds remain likely through Monday on the back side of the low as it exits into eastern Canada. Wind gusts between 35-45 mph are likely throughout the day Monday. Combined with temperatures in the 20s, wind chills may be well into the teens and possibly into the single digits. Cold temperatures continue into Tuesday with morning lows in the teens.

Wednesday and beyond...

A couple of weak systems within northwesterly flow aloft could bring some light precipitation on Wednesday and then again Thursday night. Temperatures look to moderate, potentially reaching the 60s by Friday.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1255 AM EDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Impacts:

- Winds varying in direction overnight, becoming east by 15Z - Low chance for light rain/snow this morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period, with mainly mid and high clouds at times. Surface high pressure building in will bring east winds by mid-morning.

Some weak lift in the mid levels may bring a small area of light rain/snow to mainly KIND this morning after 12Z, but for now confidence in anything reaching the ground is too low to include in the TAF.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.