textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and cooler weather Today with warmer temperatures returning this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms and heat returns next week.

- Severe weather potential late Sunday night into Monday, but exact details remain uncertain.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 306 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Today through Saturday night...

Surface high pressure remaining the dominant weather feature will continue to promote mostly quiet weather conditions. Look for increasing mid-high clouds as an upper wave moves through later today. No precipitation is expected from the passing wave due to subsidence induced dry air in the lower troposphere. Deep mixing will likely drop dewpoints lower than NBM suggest so high resolution guidance was incorporated.

Another impulse will move through the region on Saturday. Guidance suggest subsidence induced dry air from the surface high should limit precipitation chances so the forecast remains mostly dry. That said, weak forcing and deeper moisture advecting into central Indiana may support isolated showers. Look for temperatures to remain cooler than normal with highs generally in the mid 70s to low 80s today with highs in the low 80s Saturday.

Sunday into next week...

Model guidance depicts an amplified upper ridge centered near the Rockies with northwesterly flow across the Great Lakes Region during the latter half of the period. This should allow for a few shortwaves to pass through the region late this weekend into next week. These disturbances along with deeper moisture advecting into central Indiana will return chances for convection to the forecast at times late Sunday into next week. Weak surface high pressure and an EML advecting towards the region within southwesterly should keep weather conditions mostly quiet through much of the day Sunday.

Diverging model solutions leads to lower confidence in exact details during this period, but ensemble guidance suggest that at least moderate-strong instability will be in place each day. This along with enhancement of mid-upper level flow from the passing shortwaves could support the threat for severe weather, mainly late Sunday night through Monday. However, this will depend on how far east the upper ridge builds and where the shortwaves aloft track. Uncertainty will remain high until models become better aligned.

Warm air advection ahead of the aforementioned disturbances should warm temperatures well into the 80s to lower 90s Sunday through Tuesday. Dewpoints returning to the low-mid 70s will likely lead to peak heat indices around or a few degrees above 100F on Monday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 637 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. High pressure will still be well established across the region keeping winds less than 10 kt and conditions relatively calm. Winds may be variable or calm at times today and tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.