textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain likely this afternoon, generally light amounts

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph this afternoon and again tonight

- Snow showers expected tonight into Sunday, slick driving conditions possible at times

- A breezy Monday-Tuesday to boost highs to near 50F by Tuesday... snow showers Wednesday night...seasonably cold through Friday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 912 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows strong low pressure north of Minnesota with a cold front draped south across WI and western IL to SE MO. Weaker and poorly organized high pressure was found over the eastern Great Lakes. Aloft, a deep upper low was found over MN, with a clear signature found within water vapor imagery. The low was associated with a deep upper trough, stretching across IA, MO/KS to the southern plains. This was resulting in southwest flow across Indiana, ahead of the approaching surface trough. Radar shows an area of showers over western and northern Illinois, ahead of the frontal boundary.

This afternoon, the upper trough is expected to dig southeast, allowing the cold front to the west to surge across Indiana. HRRR suggests the rain over IL will push across Indiana, arriving in the west around noon, then pushing across the rest of the state during the afternoon hours. Forecast soundings this afternoon show good lower and mid level saturation. Highest pops will be across the northern and northeast parts of the state. In the wake of the front. temperatures will fall into the 30s, thus expect high temps in the early to mid afternoon, just before precip begins to fall.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 300 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Upper-level analysis shows troughing over southwestern US with another trough digging into the northern Plains from central Canada. Guidance is in good agreement showing the southwestern trough attempting to eject northeastward and phase with the northern trough. However, it becomes increasingly stretched and positively tilted until it is a SW-NE oriented ribbon of vorticity. The northern trough continues to dig southeastward while interacting with the remnant energy of the southwestern trough. As the two phase, surface cyclogenesis begins to take place over the Midwestern US.

The resulting low pressure system develops to our northeast. However, strong positive vorticity advection ahead of the digging northern trough will promote sufficient lift for precipitation later this morning into the afternoon. Given the rather fast-moving nature of the trough, a thin band of rain showers quickly moving eastward is the most probable scenario today. Amounts will be light, generally under a tenth of an inch.

An abrupt increase in winds is anticipated following the band of light rain as the MSLP gradient tightens ahead of the parent trough. Westerly winds between 15-25mph with gusts 25-35 mph are anticipated this afternoon. Not much of a temperature change is expected, however, as the air masses in front and behind the initial trough are quite similar. That does not appear to last, as a secondary cold front associated with the core of the upper-trough rapidly approaches. Temperatures falling to below freezing are expected by this evening.

Tonight

Guidance is in relatively good agreement showing low-level instability increase within the cold advective flow. Steep low-level lapse rates and forcing from the secondary cold front should allow for the formation of scattered snow showers. A few heavier snow showers are possible, especially if the secondary front is sharp rather than diffuse. Regardless, light amounts are anticipated generally a dusting to a half inch at most. Heavier snow showers could lead to brief periods of slick and hazardous driving conditions. In addition to the snow showers, another round of gusty winds is likely behind the secondary front with renewed gusts between 25-35 mph.

Sunday

Scattered snow showers may linger into Sunday, before tapering off during the afternoon as surface high pressure builds in from the west. High temps in the low to mid 30s are expected, especially if snow showers and low clouds linger well into the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 322 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

The next workweek will begin with an upper pattern trending from quasi-zonal to an increasingly amplified H500 trough...culminating in chances for lake-enhanced snow showers around the Wednesday to Wednesday night timeframe...before the late workweek exhibits mainly fair yet seasonably cold conditions and flurries.

Dry moderation from the late weekend through the Tuesday timeframe as rather weak, yet broadening surface high pressure aligned from Texas to the Carolina coast...combines with a couple less-intense short waves plunging from the Dakota to the Midwest...to produce moderate to robust southwesterly breezes both Monday and Tuesday. Resultant warm air advection will return slightly above normal readings Monday and highs near/above 50F for most of central Indiana Tuesday. Lower certainty in coverage/precipitation amounts for any rain showers around the Tuesday night into Wednesday periods.

Pattern to amplify quickly over central North America through the mid-week as embedded vorts near Manitoba swing south off the polar low's axis lobing around Hudson Bay. H500 trough to plunge from Upper Midwest to the Deep South, while associated polar air mass shifts from Northwest Territories to North Texas in less than 48 hours. Cold advective flow over Indiana will likely veer from NW to northerly, promoting a potential long-fetched Lake Michigan-enhanced snow shower scenario around the late Wednesday to Wednesday night period. Mid-level forcing racing south/east of the source lakes may prevent a longer duration of SW's...yet at a minimum areas of slick roads from widespread flurries/few snow showers are possible as temperatures fall from around 40F to near 20F into the Thursday timeframe.

Similar down-and-up progression of readings through the late week with the one mainly-subfreezing day likely for Thursday, and seasonable chill Friday...all amid reasonable lows near the 20-25 degree range. Generally no-impact mid-winter flurries are a safe bet for the late workweek. The normal max/min at Indianapolis next week is 38/22.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1131 AM EST Sat Jan 10 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR/IFR ceilings return - Rain showers early in the TAF Period - WNW gusts to 20-30kt late afternoon to evening, again overnight - Snow showers possible after 04z

Discussion:

Radar shows an area of rain showers over IL associated with a cold front poised to push across Central Indiana. This will spread MVFR conditions across the TAF sites.

Models hint at some brief clearing in the wake of the front this evening and clear skies are seen over MO, but cyclonic flow and cold air advection may lead to more stratocu development. Thus there is some uncertainty here and have used a tempo group.

MVFR Cigs will return late this evening and overnight as cyclonic flow remains across the area. HRRR at that time suggests a few snow flurries within the flow along with a weak wave within the cyclonic flow. This could result in brief snow showers or flurries. Have included VCSH to account for that.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.