textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers late this afternoon, a few thunderstorms possible.

- Dry weather tonight through much of Tuesday.

- Chances for showers and storms much of the week ahead. Best chances for dry weather on Friday.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 234 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows strong high pressure over MO and western IL, building eastward. Aloft, an upper trough axis was found over WI and IL, pushing east toward Indiana. Radar shows two areas of rain showers along and ahead of this trough. The first was pushing across SE Central Indiana. The second area was found entering western Indiana and was linear in fashion, with daytime heating leading to some convection near this boundary.

Late this afternoon and tonight...

Models suggest the upper trough axis will continue to quickly move across Indiana, exiting the state near 00Z. The ongoing rain ahead of this trough will push across most areas, resulting in at least a brief period of showers or a TSRA through 00Z. Dry weather will arrive after 00Z in the wake of the upper trough as forcing is lost. Models show the upper flow has weak ridging available and strong subsidence arrives promptly after 00Z. Strong drying is seen within the forecast soundings. Thus a trend toward mostly clear skies is expected. With little change in the overall air mass, lows will be mainly in the mid 50s.

Monday and Monday Night...

Dry and warmer weather is expected for Memorial Day and Monday night. Models show the strong area of high pressure in place over the plains will be moving across our state though Monday, arriving over NY and PA by Monday night. Forecast soundings and time heights show a dry column with ongoing subsidence as a strong ridge axis builds within the upper levels. Convective temperatures appear unreachable as a mid level inversion will be present. Thus a mostly sunny sky and mostly clear night will be expected. A day of full sun should allow us to reach highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

The upper pattern suggests upper ridging in place over the upper midwest, with a NW tilt to western Canada. A weak upper trough over OK and AR will provide southerly gulf flow across Indiana. Models suggest some forcing dynamics within that flow will pass across Indiana on late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Thus chances for showers and storms will continue to be needed on those days.

Thursday and Friday...

Dry weather will be expected for now on Thursday and Friday. Strong high pressure will be over the Great Lakes along with strong ridging aloft on those days. This will lead to subsidence and dry weather along with above normal temperatures.

Saturday and Sunday...

Smaller rain chances will return next weekend. The upper ridging is expected to drift to the east while a warm front and and upper trough approaches the area on Saturday. This will bring rain chances to the area for the weekend. Although there is no signal for high confidence pops, enough ingredients remain where precipitation cannot be ruled out yet.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 105 PM EDT Sun May 24 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected - Brief MVFR conditions possible in any SHRA/TSRA through 2000Z

Discussion:

Moisture surging northward from southern Indiana along with additional storms northwest of the TAF sites will push across the Taf sites through afternoon. HRRR suggests continued devlopment and progression across the TAF sites through 20Z. Thus have focused a windows of showers and possible thunderstorms during this period.

High pressure over the plains is then expected to build across Indiana and the Taf sites for Monday. This will lead to a return to VFR conditions tonight in the wake of the storms. Forecast soundings through the night and into Monday show a dry column with the arrival of the high.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.