textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered flurries and light snow over the northeast half of central Indiana this evening

- Greater risk for snow and light accumulations Wednesday afternoon and evening along and northeast of Interstate 74

- Seasonably cold through much of the rest of the week with temperatures warming by late this weekend

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

Stubborn stratus deck remains over much of the forecast area early this morning as clearing remains stalled near the Illinois border. Scattered flurries and a few light snow showers continue to impact much of the northeast half of central Indiana and have produced a fluffy dusting in several locations. 07Z temperatures were in the teens with brisk W/NW winds.

Upper level forcing has lingered across the region as a wave aloft pivots around the back side of the deep upper level low currently over western Quebec. This will shift east of the region over the next few hours which should finally bring an end to the flurries prior to daybreak. RH progs support the back edge of the lower stratus shifting east into the forecast area through mid morning aided by a subtle infusion of drier air aloft as weak surface ridging briefly builds in.

Any sunshine this morning will gradually diminish into the afternoon as mid and high level clouds expand back into the Ohio Valley from the north in advance of a weak clipper system dropping out of the Canadian prairies. This feature will weaken as it moves southeast into the Great Lakes by late day but will spread flurries and light snow into the northeast half of the forecast area for this evening. Cannot rule out a dusting focused mainly over our far northeast counties but more than anything the passage of this system will be to bring a return of the snow globe style flakes we have seen since Monday morning with brisk southwest winds.

Flurries will depart the forecast area after 06Z Wednesday with some clearing focused mainly across the southwest half of central Indiana as weak surface ridging once again tries to expand albeit briefly into the Ohio Valley.

Temps...low level thermals support highs between 25 and 30 degrees this afternoon. Lows tonight will only fall into the low to mid 20s with the clouds and brisk winds.

LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 248 AM EST Tue Dec 30 2025

A fairly typical winter pattern will continue as we enter 2026 with broad northwest flow aloft across the region. An upper wave with an associated cold front will sweep through the area late Wednesday into Wednesday night with the potential for light snow accumulations and a reinforcing surge of colder air. Strong ridging aloft over the western U S will spread east this weekend into early next week allowing for a recovery in temperatures to near normal levels.

Wednesday through Thursday

Weak surface ridging will briefly poke into the Ohio Valley Wednesday morning before clouds once again increase into the afternoon. A deep upper level wave will pivot around the base of a sub 490dam upper low over James Bay and aid in sharpening the upper trough focused across the region by Wednesday evening. A cold front will sweep south with snow expanding into the forecast area by late afternoon and persisting through the evening. CAMs have continued a gradual strengthening of the system further south with higher confidence now present in light snow accumulations and minor travel impacts for late afternoon and evening.

Model soundings show the column saturating up to around 600mb and through the dendritic growth zone for a couple hours which may allow for a brief period with higher snowfall rates focused across the northeast half of the forecast area. Snow ratios initially will be near climo norms in the 10:1 to 12:1 range but as progressively colder air builds south...expect ratios closer to 15:1 by the time snow ends around or shortly after 06Z Thursday. Have nudged up accums along and northeast of I-74 up to around a half inch with the potential for areas from Delphi and Kokomo southeast through Muncie and Winchester around an inch if not slightly higher. Even with accums being light...the timing is not ideal as it will coincide with New Years Eve activities.

A reinforcing surge of Arctic air will follow Wednesday night and Thursday in the wake of the frontal boundary and snow. Despite increased sunshine for New Years Day as high pressure moves across the region...temperatures will remain firmly in the 20s north of I- 70 with lower to mid 30s further south.

Thursday Night through Monday

The amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a ridge in the western U S and a trough over the eastern half of the country will break down as the ridging weakens but presses east towards the area. High pressure will maintain largely dry weather for the end of the week as a surface wave passes well to the south of the region. Temperatures will begin to rise for Friday and Saturday with most of the forecast area in the 30s. By the second half of the weekend...surface flow will swing around to the south as the high shifts east of the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will warm back to near above normal levels largely in the 40s by Sunday and Monday in response.

Confidence in the forecast for next week is low as overall flow pattern across the country becomes messy and could potentially see the redevelopment of a ridge in the west and trough in the east. There are hints of a return to a more extended period of colder and unsettled weather by the second week of January.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1146 PM EST Mon Dec 29 2025

Impacts:

- Widespread MVFR ceilings persisting to near or just past daybreak Tuesday

- Occasional flurries or light snow showers ending overnight

- W/SW wind gusts peaking at 20 to 25kts at times Tuesday afternoon and evening

- Scattered flurries possible at KIND and KLAF Tuesday evening

Discussion:

Scattered flurries and light snow showers continue late this evening but will diminish overnight as an upper level wave moves off to the east. The low stratus will linger however for the next several hours with clearing slowly expanding east by daybreak or shortly after. Winds remain gusty but continue to tail off and should fall back to 10-15kts during the predawn hours.

Any clearing on Tuesday will be temporary as mid level clouds will overspread the region from the north during the afternoon as low pressure tracks into the Great Lakes. Scattered flurries or light snow showers will likely expand across the northeast half of central Indiana Tuesday evening before departing off to the east late Tuesday night. Winds will again become brisk Tuesday afternoon and evening as an attendant frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. Expect peak gusts around 20 to 25kts at times.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.