textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly clear tonight, Partly Sunny on Saturday. Continued warming into the next work week.

- Scattered to widespread rain showers Saturday Night to midday Sunday...rainfall 0.25-0.75 inches for most locations. Best chances across southern central Indiana.

- Ice Jam development remains a concern this week...as temperatures continue to moderate through 50s to around 60 by middle of next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 901 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Upper ridging is moving into the area while a surface high continues to slowly drift further east. Skies are currently mostly clear with just a few clouds drifting through. Forecast is in pretty good shape and only minor adjustments were needed for the temperatures and dew points to better match current obs. Lows tonight are expected to be near 30 thanks to light winds and mostly clear skies.

An approaching system will start to bring in increasing cloud coverage from the SW by the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Surface analysis late this morning shows high pressure in place across KY/OH and West Virginia. This system was providing mostly clear skies across the area, along with light southerly flow. Aloft, water vapor imagery shows ridging in place over the high plains with northwest flow spilling across WI/Indiana and Illinois, along with subsidence. A few Cirrus upstream over IA and MN were shown on GOES16 streaming toward Indiana. Temperatures were rising in to the lower 50s across much of the forecast area.

Tonight...Models keep the ridging over the high plains still west of Indiana and this will allow for continued lee side subsidence across Indiana. The surface high is expected to slowly drift toward Virginia, but maintain mild southerly flow across Indiana. Forecast soundings overnight remain dry but do indicate some upper level saturation from time to time, indicative of some high passing CI. Warm air advection will be ongoing overnight. This along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to fall to the lower 30s, with some upper 20s possible in more rural areas.

On Saturday...Aloft, the ridge axis to the west is expected to pass across Indiana through the day and subsidence will remain prevalent. Southerly lower level flow will be dominate, as the surface high drifts off the coast of the Carolinas and low pressure begins to develop over eastern TX. This will allow for another warm day as warm air advection remains in play. Highs should be able to exceed today's values, reaching the lower and middle 50s.

As the Surface low begins to push eastward and the ridge axis passes by afternoon, high cloud will be more able to invade the skies across Indiana. This will result in a mostly sunny morning, followed by increasing high clouds in the afternoon. Forecast soundings depict this by showing the arrival of upper level saturation by the afternoon.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 200 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

The weekend will begin a transition towards a much milder weather pattern for central Indiana with broad upper level ridging taking hold over most of the CONUS. That said, there is a narrow trough within the broad ridging helping supply a disorganized area of cyclogenesis over the lower Mississippi Valley tonight through tomorrow. By tomorrow night, a broad area of low pressure will near from the south east providing chances for rain Saturday night through Sunday morning.

As mentioned previously, there is significant uncertainty regarding the magnitude of moisture return as well as the time it will take to moisten a relatively dry antecedent PBL. This has led to a fairly wide range in potential QPF outcomes south of the I-70 corridor ranging from 0.25"-1.0". Current expectation is QPF will trend towards the lower end of these potential outcomes as higher resolution guidance better handles a more narrow zone of synoptic lift, especially along and just south of I-70.

The aforementioned WAA will lead to a 5 to 10 degree warm-up this weekend, but this warming trend will be curtailed some by an increase in mid level cloud cover. Current expectation is for high temperatures each day in the upper 40s to low 50s, but any areas that receive rain or an increase in low level cloud cover Saturday could end up slightly lower.

Following the passage of this mid level wave, pressure increases throughout the whole column will lead to a significant warm up for early next week. How warm we get will depend on the placement of the polar jet; regardless there is high confidence in temperatures well above normal for Monday through Wednesday. Precipitation chances are more uncertain and will depend how the emerging trough over the Eastern Pacific interacts and phases with the previously discussed mid-continental ridge.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 646 PM EST Fri Feb 13 2026

Impacts:

- Rain may start to move in at IND after 00z tomorrow

Discussion:

Winds will generally be from the SSW throughout the period at around 7 kts or less. Tonight into the morning could see some passing mid to high clouds. An approaching system will start to increase cloud coverage from the south tomorrow afternoon. For IND, rain from the system may arrive sometime between 00z and 06z tomorrow evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.