textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread minor/moderate river flooding continues south of I-70

- Cooler weather arrives for Thursday and Friday.

- After today, the next best chance for rain will be Sunday.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Surface analysis early this afternoon morning shows low pressure over SW Ontario. A cold front extended southwest from the low across Central Indiana, near a MIE-IND-south of HUF line. Radar continued to show scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front over southern Indiana. More stratiform rain was found in the wake of the front. Water vapor across the CONUS shows a moderate trough in place across the plains states, with moist southwest flow ahead of the trough streaming into the Ohio Valley.

An isolated severe storm through late this afternoon cannot be ruled out as radar trends show development across southern Central Indiana within the warm sector. Main threat would be damaging straight line winds.

Tonight...The forcing associated with the upper trough is expected to exit west tonight, allowing the precipitation across the area to end. This however will take until 22Z to 24Z per the HRRR trends. Strong cold air advection in the wake of the trough will allow for the arrival of low stratocu through the evening as forecast soundings show moisture trapped beneath an inversion aloft. Furthermore, winds will begin to subside this evening as the strong LLJ departs and the pressure gradient becomes weaker. Thus will keep some ongoing pops through the afternoon hours and into the evening, before skies just become cloudy. Overnight, forecast soundings become dry due to stronger subsidence across the area and will trend toward a partly cloudy sky overnight. Lows around 30 will be expected in most locations.

On Thursday through Friday...a colder pattern will be in place as the upper flow becomes more northwesterly. Some weak upper ridging is hinted at on Thursday. The ridging is better within the lower levels on Thursday within the lower levels as strong subsidence will be in place and high pressure builds across the area. Thus will trend toward a mostly sunny day with cooler highs around 50 on Thursday.

On Thursday Night and Friday low pressure is suggested to be moving across the Great Lakes but best forcing and moisture looks to remain well north of Central Indiana. Forecast soundings show saturation aloft, but dry air within the lower levels through the night and into Friday. Additional subsidence is shown to arrive by Friday as forecast soundings show top down drying and the quick moving upper low over the Great lakes is suggested to depart to the east by late afternoon. This will lead to another partly cloudy day along with slightly warmer temperatures as the core of the coldest air will have moved east. Highs on Friday will reach the mid and upper 50s.

LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)

Issued at 225 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Saturday Through Wednesday...

On Saturday, models suggest a quick NW flow in place aloft with ridging present within the lower levels. This will result in dry and cool weather on Saturday, however a warm front will be approaching through the day from the southwest.

Chances for rain will return on Sunday and Monday as a trough develops over the plains and pushes across Central Indiana on Sunday into Monday. A strong cold from will accompany this system, and with a warm and humid air mass in place ahead of the front showers and thunderstorms will be expected.

The upper pattern looks to become highly amplified over the CONUS for Tuesday into Wednesday. Strong ridging will take shape over the western CONUS while a deep trough will be found across the east coast. This will lead to NW flow and subsidence across the upper midwest and Indiana. Strong surface high pressure is expected to build across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys before exiting by Wednesday. Chances for precipitation return on Wednesday as a surface area of low pressure is suggested to push through the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 753 PM EDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR visibility improving to VFR around 04Z-05Z tonight - Northwest winds gusting to 22-34KT...gusts down to 18-22KT by 06Z - West-northwest winds Thursday gusting up to 12-16KT - Surface flow backing after 18Z Thursday to SSW

Discussion:

Cold frontal zone will continue to cross over central Indiana terminals this evening, with ceilings slowly improving through widespread MVFR amid northwest gusts slowly diminishing from 22-34KT early this evening.

VFR conditions will return around 04Z-05Z tonight as surface ridging builds into the region from the northwest. Thursday will feature lighter breezes as flow slowly backs to westerly by 19Z...and SSW by 23Z. Winds will then increase Thursday evening at KIND ahead of the next system with gusts up to 20KT by 06Z Friday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.