textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight.

- Additional chances for precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday and again towards mid week

- Milder temperatures Saturday with highs in the 70s before slight cooldown late weekend into next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 938 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Some slight adjustments were made to the forecast this morning. Current KIND radar imagery shows mostly quiet weather across central IN though there are a few light showers near far northern portions of the area. These showers are associated with a weak boundary which will continue slowly drifting northeast. Additional showers and isolated storms are expected to develop late today ahead of another weak disturbance moving in. No severe weather is expected due to very limited instability.

POPs were primarily adjusted for this morning based on observations while slight adjustments were made through tonight. Diurnal mixing is already promoting gusts between 20 to 30 mph as well so made some adjustments for winds. Look for highs well in the 60s to low 70s.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 330 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Today through Sunday night...

Recent more-active pattern will continue through the late week and weekend, albeit with less-impressive disturbances...that will bring the potential for isolated non-severe thunder, yet perhaps moderate rainfall late today into tonight given system slow progression. Central Indiana will remain in the belly of an anomalously deep and broad H500 trough spinning around the southern banks of Hudson Bay, with an associated very weak yet quasi-stagnant trough of surface low pressure slowly advancing from the Upper Midwest today to the Ohio Valley by Sunday night.

More southern-extending assemblage of weaknesses near the Ozarks to Chicagoland will help focus a small portion of more impressive western Gulf moisture north across much of the Midwest by late today. Steadily increasing coverage of showers can be expected along a SW-NE aligned axis of best lift that will slowly slide from near Lafayette early this afternoon...to the Indianapolis Metro by sundown...and to Seymour by 07Z tonight. Isolated non- severe thunder to accompany increasing rain rates late today, with most rain falling within the 00Z to 08Z timeframe tonight. Axis of 0.50-0.75 inches of rain is expected by dawn Saturday near I-70 and south to US-50, with otherwise light rainfall for the region's north-northwestern third and towards the Ohio Valley.

Damp conditions to set in tonight into early Saturday as showers taper off and depart east...with a shallow saturated isothermal layer under 900 mb trapping moisture and low stratus into much of Saturday morning. Moderate confidence in tranquil conditions Saturday PM under weak differential NVA, with at least partial clearing promoting robust west-southwest winds gusting to 15-25 mph through sundown.

The very weak cold front will then cross the CWA Saturday evening, with modest anafrontal lift providing widely scattered showers overnight and into much of the day Sunday south/east of Indianapolis.

Monday through Thursday...

Indiana will remain in an overall zonal and somewhat progressive pattern, with the state positioned between short waves descending from the Canadian Plains to the Great Lakes...and a stagnant subtropical ridge aligned over much of western North America. Amplified Canadian high pressure will slowly cross the region to start the workweek...before the southern side of a small system brings opportunities for showers within an 18-hour window Tuesday to Tuesday night. Despite brief return of better precipitable water, so far appears general lack of instability should allow only scattered showers and a few general thunderstorms...although the system potency would trend upward if the parent wave plunged farther south.

The mid-week most likely to feature a slow transitional, and mainly dry day Wednesday as weaker high pressure attempts to build into the area...and actually a pleasant spring day to end the long term with lighter winds under partly sunny skies promoting readings near mid- May normals. Patchy early morning fog will be on the table at times through the long term with light NW/N breezes, if not pre-dawn light winds. Mainly below-normal readings will include overnight lows in 40s to around 50F...while afternoons slowly moderate through the 60s into the 70s.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 745 AM EDT Fri May 8 2026

Impacts:

- Occasional gusts as high as 18-24KT within 15Z-22Z - -SHRA expanding this afternoon...slowly tapering off from NW to SE from 00Z at KLAF...to a bit after 08Z Saturday at KBMG - MVFR VIS possible at times after 22Z - MVFR or worse CIG developing 04Z-05Z Saturday, lingering through most of Saturday morning

Discussion:

VFR conditions to continue near central Indiana terminals through at least 18Z this afternoon. Clear skies early today will be replaced by increasing decks through midday ahead of -SHRA. Winds to also increase from the southwest, with gusts to 13-24KT within 15Z-22Z.

Next disturbance will cross the Midwest later today and tonight, bringing slowly increasing coverage of mainly light showers from NW to SE after 16Z. Any thunder will be too isolated to include in TAFs. Occasional MVFR VIS is possible as noted in PROB groups, with confidence too low to include at KLAF. Ceilings to deteriorate later tonight as -SHRA slowly taper off from NW to SE with MVFR or worse developing quickly in the early overnight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.