textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures arrive for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Wind gusts up to 40 mph expected on Tuesday.

- A wet pattern emerges for Tuesday Night through Friday, with strong to severe storms possible on Tuesday afternoon and night.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 912 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast with conditions generally evolving as expected. Temperatures have begun to drop with dew points running a couple degrees below the previous forecast, but expect now that the limited daytime mixing has ended, dew points should begin to slowly recover.

Main forecast challenge will be the overnight lows with high cirrus slowly moving in from the west. This may help to moderate temperatures just enough after 2AM to keep temperatures above 34 and limit frost formation. That being said, the growing season has not begun, so no frost mention would be in the forecast either way.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Relatively quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as an expansive surface high pressure system moves overhead today. Southerly flow will return tonight and persist through the rest of the short term, bringing the region back to above normal temperatures starting tomorrow. Highs today will range from the upper 40s to low 50s, dropping to the mid to upper 30s tonight, and then highs back in the 60s tomorrow.

The high pressure today is providing clear skies and light, variable winds today. On the backside of the high, however, increasing pressure gradients could lead to gusts of up to 20 mph to mix down the surface tomorrow afternoon. Also expecting partly to mostly cloudy skies at times tonight and tomorrow.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 249 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

The Ohio Valley will undergo a pattern change this weekend as a CAA induced surface high will push eastward, eventually parking over the Western Atlantic, and establishing a typical Bermuda high. This high will remain stagnant as subsidence beneath an upper level ridge will reinforce pressure rises over this area throughout the week. With a strong high over the Western Atlantic, the central CONUS will experience well above normal temperatures and strong moisture return as the mean flow remains predominantly out of the S/SW.

The wave count will also increase next week, of which will lead to consistent precipitation chances beginning early on Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary progresses through. The rest of the weak will be greatly influenced by this boundary as it becomes quasi- stationary near central Indiana, with a 100-150mile corridor of precipitation within its vicinity from Tuesday night through portions of Friday. By next weekend, a new trough is expected to reach the central CONUS, pushing the boundary northward, but with additional rain/storm chances as the trough nears. Severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out, with the best chances being Tuesday as the front passes, and Sat/Sun within the trough passage. Total QPF will likely end up well above normal for early April, with some areas receiving upwards of 4 inches by the end of the week.

Temperatures will fluctuate some due to the placement of the aforementioned boundary, regardless, daily highs and lows will remain above normal within predominant S/SW flow aloft. Current expectation is for highs to range from the upper 50s to upper 70s throughout the week, with slight adjustments possible depending on timing of cloud cover and precipitation.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 652 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts up to 20kts Sunday afternoon

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with surface high pressure in place. High level clouds will gradually fill in the skies tonight before clearing after daybreak. Southerly winds expected through tomorrow with speeds around 5-10kts tonight and a few gusts up to 20kts Sunday afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.