textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warmer through the day Thursday

- Rain and storm chances along with humidity increase for Friday into the weekend

- Watching for slow moving areas of storms with a heavy rain and flood threat Saturday

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Quiet weather will continue through the short term period, and temperatures will be warmer than previous days.

Some upper ridging will nudge into central Indiana today. At the surface, high pressure will be to the southeast of the area. These features will be what keeps the weather quiet.

Some lingering elevated smoke will be across the area today, but models are showing it won't be as thick. Otherwise, high clouds will gradually increase from the west and south.

Mostly sunny skies will give way to partly cloudy conditions this afternoon, with partly cloudy skies continuing tonight as high clouds continue to move through.

Warm advection and sunshine will bring highs into the lower and middle 80s today. Lows tonight will be in the lower 60s.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 240 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Split flow will continue through the long term, with the main jet stream well north of central Indiana. However, a southern stream system will bring chances for rain through the weekend.

A cold front associated with the northern stream will try to move south on Thursday, but it will not get far with most upper support far from the front. Even if it were to make it into Indiana, it would remain far enough north to keep any rain with it out of central Indiana. Will go with a dry forecast for Thursday.

The upper system across the south central USA early Friday will slowly move northeast, moving through the local area on Saturday into Saturday night.

At the surface, continued southerly flow will pump moisture into the area. Dewpoints will reach the middle and upper 60s on Friday, with dewpoints around 70 on Saturday. Precipitable water values will be around 2 inches by Saturday.

With the plentiful moisture, the upper system will bring rain to the area, so will go likely or higher category PoPs at times from later Friday through the day Saturday.

Shear will be low, so organized severe weather is not expected. The main threat looks to be locally heavy rain given the high moisture content and expected slower movement of convection.

Uncertainty ramps up for Sunday, with the speed of the exit of the system in question. Models have been trending faster with the exit, but with the uncertainty will keep chance PoPs around.

For early next week, uncertainty continues on how the upper flow evolves. Potential continued northwest flow with occasional rounds of forcing will result in at least keeping some low PoPs in.

With colder air bottled up to the north of the area, highs will mainly be in the 80s with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 612 AM EDT Wed Jun 11 2025

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR fog possible at KBMG very early

Discussion:

MVFR fog may persist at KBMG very early in the period, but at the moment feel it will be gone by valid time. KLAF may also experience brief fog very early, but confidence is not high enough to include at this time.

Otherwise, VFR conditions will continue through the period. High clouds, as well as some elevated smoke, will move through at times. Winds will generally be around 10kt or less, but a few gusts around 15kt are possible this afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.