textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic rainfall tonight; warmer and sunnier this weekend

- Additional rainfall early next week with much cooler weather likely post-Thanksgiving

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 959 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Conditions are evolving as expected this evening with better- organized rain showers having moved off to the northeast of the region...and widely scattered, and perhaps briefly-moderate rain, now embedded within widespread mist/patchy drizzle. Poor flying conditions will be the main impact overnight as lingering showers taper to mist under low stratus. Reduced visibility to vary within roughly the 2SM to 6SM range, with moderate confidence in no major reductions towards dawn given arrival of milder surface high pressure towards dawn. However did expand patchy fog in grids given persistent BR through much of overnight.

Minimum temperatures by early Saturday morning will range from mid- 30s over the Upper Wabash Valley to mainly mid-40s along the region's southern third.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Dreary conditions will persist across central Indiana into Saturday morning.

Isentropic lift will continue into the evening hours ahead of an area of surface low pressure. Moisture will continue to be enough to work with the forcing to keep rain at times across the area. Will continue with high PoPs at times from this afternoon into the evening. Some elevated instability may sneak into the far southern forecast area, but feel odds of thunder will be too low to mention.

During the overnight, an upper trough will move through. This will be enough to keep some patchy light rain around, so will go with some chance PoPs overnight.

Forcing should be far enough east by 12Z Saturday to go with a dry forecast. Drier air will work into the area as high pressure moves south. Some questions remain on how fast the drier air arrives and when it will be enough to scour out the persistent low level moisture. For now will go closer to the more pessimistic blend of short term higher res guidance. Even with this, some sunshine is expected most locations by the end of the day.

Clouds will keep temperatures from falling too much tonight, even after the area of low pressure exits to the east. Will go with lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s most areas. On Saturday, will go a little cooler than guidance for highs given the more pessimistic cloud cover forecast.

LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)

Issued at 243 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

After the passage of the low tonight, modest WAA in the lower levels will aid in the emergence of high pressure across the central CONUS, with dry and above normal temperatures expected Saturday night through Monday. This dry pattern will be short lived however, as a deep trough will approach from the southwest late Monday through the middle of next week. This trough is currently spinning over the southwest coast, but will eventually push eastward as the upper level jet phases.

As this trough passes over the Rockies, lee cyclogenesis is expected to begin on Monday, quickly advancing to the NE within strong upper level flow. The current expectation is for this surface low to pass well to the north, with rain chances along a subsequent pressure trough Monday night and Tuesday. Uncertainty begins to increase significantly after the low passage mid week, with a widespread in ensemble solutions dealing with this low's interaction with a strong baroclinic zone across southern Canada. This interaction could push much colder air and chances for snow into the Ohio Valley late week, but confidence in any specific hazards is low. At the moment, highs are expected to be in the 30s and lows in the 20s.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1139 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Impacts:

- Sub-IFR ceilings continue for much of the rest of the overnight with improvements beginning predawn at KLAF and after daybreak elsewhere - Light rain will end late tonight - VFR conditions for much of Saturday

Discussion:

Poor flying conditions will persist for much of the rest of the night as very low ceilings linger with light rain and drizzle ending. Drier air will advect south into the region late tonight and Saturday morning with a gradual rise in ceilings first at KLAF then at the other terminals. Increasing subsidence in the wake of an upper level wave will set the stage for a fair amount of sunshine once the clouds largely diminish around midday Saturday. The approach of a weak front Saturday evening will spread a mid level deck across the terminals.

N/NE winds near 10kts will diminish to light and variable early Saturday before transitioning to southwest Saturday evening ahead of the aforementioned front.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.