textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Partly Sunny to Mostly Cloudy Today. A sprinkle possible.

- Dry and pleasant weather ahead this week. Near-average temperatures, highs near 80, lows in 50s/60s.

- Next best chance for widespread rain will be on Saturday.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 915 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

No major changes needed to the forecast with conditions generally evolving as expected. Light rain is currently falling across Randolph county with a few PWS reporting -RA over the last half hour, but elsewhere the rain is evaporating before reaching the ground as much of this rain is falling from a 8-10kft cloud deck. Further to the southwest, a decaying MCS is moving from southern Illinois into western Kentucky with convective debris bringing overcast skies to the western and southwestern portions of the forecast area. Any rain associated with this system is expected to remain south and west of the forecast area.

With the expected thick cloud cover through the early afternoon, forecast highs in the upper 70s to near 80 look reasonable at this time with the expectation that these higher temperatures are likely to hold off until the late afternoon hours when the cloud cover gradually begins to dissipate.

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 219 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Surface analysis early this morning reveals a easterly flow due to strong high pressure north of the Great Lakes. Aloft, water vapor shows ridging in place over the plains and an broad upper trough stretching Ontario and the Great Lakes. A ribbon of pesky middle and upper level moisture under the ridge was found stretching from the southeastern states, across Indiana to the upper midwest. The clouds across Central Indiana were preventing a quick temperature fall.

Today...

The upper trough over Ontario and the Great Lakes will sag across Indiana today. As this feature passes, it will interact with the pesky mid and upper level moisture as seen on water vapor. This will lead to mostly cloudy skies. HRRR shows a few showers and storms trying to develop this afternoon amid this upper forcing. Forecast soundings do not appear very favorable for any convection with mid level capping in place and very dry lower levels. A sprinkle or virga will be more likely, but a very isolated one-hundreth of an inch of precipitation is possible. Confidence remains very low for that as high pressure and low dew points remain dominate at the surface. Clouds should limit high temperatures today as they reach only the upper 70s to near 80.

Tonight through Wednesday...

A continued period of dry and clear weather will arrive tonight in the wake of the upper trough. Models suggest strong ridging in place stretching from the central Plains to western Ontario, leading to subsidence across Indiana and the Great Lakes. This will result in a strong area of surface high pressure setting north of Indiana, continuing to provide cool and dry easterly lower level flow. Forecast soundings will remain very dry through this time, leading to mostly clear skies. Look for daily highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

Thursday and Friday...

Continued dry weather will be expected to end the work week. Models shows the ridging aloft breaking down on Thursday before a more zonal flow arrives aloft on Friday. Strong surface high pressure will remain in place over the southeastern states, allowing a warmer and more humid air mass to begin to arrive in the area. A weak frontal boundary will approach Central Indiana on Friday afternoon from the northwest, but overall forcing remains limited, and very limited CAPE appears available for the moment in the late afternoon as an inversion is signaled aloft. Thus some low pops may be included on the chance something changes, but confidence for rain on Friday is low.

Saturday and Sunday...

The best chances for rain will return on Saturday. Models suggest a weak wave will push across Central Indiana within the flow aloft on Saturday. The warmer and more humid lower level flow will provide moisture and forecast soundings suggest more CAPE available on Saturday afternoon and Saturday. Thus convection and rain chances cannot be ruled out.

More chances for rain will persist on Sunday. Even though ridging will be in place aloft, the warm and humid air mass favorable for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will remain present. Forecast soundings suggest sufficient CAPE available for diurnal instability showers and storms.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 557 AM EDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

Little overall change to this forecast period. GOES19 shows mid clouds still over eastern Central Indiana, while convective debris clouds were spreading into western Indiana ahead of an MCS.

A upper trough is expected to push across Indiana today, sagging south from the Great Lakes. The lower levels remain very dry with ongoing easterly flow. However mid level saturation is expected to persist from time to time as the upper trough passes. This will lead to mid level VFR cigs through the day. The convective debris clouds will also keep trends toward VFR cigs also at HUF and BMG.

An isolated shower or sprinkle will be possible, but confidence for that is low due to very dry lower levels and 30+ degree dew point depressions.

Clear skies should return on Monday night as high pressure over the Great Lakes continues to build across Indiana providing cool and dry easterly winds.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.