textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures return, highs in the 60s today and 70s tomorrow, with low 80s expected by Tuesday

- Wind gusts up to 20-30 mph Monday...and up to 30-40 mph Tuesday

- A wet pattern late Tuesday through Saturday, with strong t-storms possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 918 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Only minor adjustment needed to the forecast was to add some low POPs to the southeastern counties towards daybreak tomorrow with some weak isentropic lift expected within the MVFR stratus deck. Confidence isn't very high with the weak nature of the lift, but do think the threat is high enough to warrant an isolated shower mention.

Dew points have gradually begun to recover with the loss of deeper mixing and continued southerly flow. The LLJ is expected to continue to ramp up tonight with saturation associated with the aforementioned isentropic lift helping to bring thicker low level clouds towards daybreak.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 300 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The short term will see zonal flow aloft with high pressure set up over the Gulf. At the surface, a high will start off over the mid atlantic coast and push NE while a surface low ejects out of the central to northern plains to the Great Lakes then towards NE Canada. This will place central Indiana under SW flow with moisture and warm air advection through the period as well as stronger winds aloft that are expected to mix down to the surface during the afternoon hours. Gusts up to around 25 mph expected this afternoon and around 30 to 35 mph for tomorrow afternoon.

Highs today will be in the 60s and increase tomorrow to the 70s thanks to the WAA.

Can't rule out some isolated sprinkles at times tonight and again tomorrow afternoon across the east from just enough lift and moisture with the low passing to the north, but low confidence on this. Better precipitation chances arrive Tuesday.

LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)

Issued at 330 PM EDT Sun Mar 29 2026

The period will start as increasing south-southwesterly flow brings gusts nearing 20-30 mph by dawn Tuesday. Only a small diurnal drop following anomalous warmth Monday will set the table for a record high minimum temperature Tuesday, with lows at least 5 degrees above normal highs. Despite flow turning windy Tuesday with gusts up to 30-40 mph, bringing moderate humidity by late morning...mainly rain-free conditions will prevail until better forcing arrives later in the day.

The remainder of the long term will turn the page into April by maintaining a damp and at times rainy pattern into next weekend. Three distinct periods of more organized rain are expected around the Tuesday night-Wednesday...Thursday-Thursday night...and weekend timeframes. Yet another zonally-elongated and slowly-passing cold frontal zone during the mid-week will hold a precipitation axis over the CWA, with at least a few, possibly strong t-storms.

Broader deep Gulf moisture will be established by the time the next short wave crosses the central CONUS on Thursday, placing open wave surface low pressure near the Middle Mississippi Valley up through the northern Midwest...which will provide enough gradient to hold above normal dewpoints while boosting precipitable water values to 1.2-1.5 inches as the Gulf fetch is focused into much of Indiana. Perhaps a stronger upper wave late in the week will track farther north, and likely drag a stronger cold front through the region...which would promote a quicker, final period of rain, with potential t-storms. While drizzle and a few widely scattered rain showers are expected otherwise, these three main periods of numerous to widespread showers will bring the solid majority of the week's rainfall.

Long term precipitation totals will most likely reach 1-3 inches through Thursday night and possibly 2-4 inches by the end of the long term when the pattern will likely become less rainy. At least isolated minor flooding is possible by the late week, although water will pass through soils less than from early March's heavy rains as the growing season begins.

Temperatures to be consistently well above normal, although a seasonably cool Wednesday is most likely along the Upper Wabash Valley behind the cold front's initial progress through much of the region. Lows will often be near normal highs. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 59/38.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 139 AM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Impacts:

-LLWS 05Z to 14Z -Low chance for MVFR cigs after 12Z today -South-southwesterly wind gusts between 25-30 kt during the day today

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through daybreak before low stratus moves across much of central Indiana during the day. Confidence in MVFR ceilings has decreased, but MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out after 12-14Z today. Ahead of the stratus, non-convective LLWS is possible through about 13-14Z as the LLJ ramps up and surface winds remain at or less than 10kts. Surface gusts between 25-30 kt are expected out of the south to southwest during the day. Slightly weaker gusts may persist sporadically tonight at some sites.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.