textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Quiet weather with near normal temperatures through Friday

- Showers and thunderstorms return this weekend, heavy rain possible

- Warming trend possible for the first week of August

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 916 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

It's been a cool and crisp morning so far with a localized area of fog over eastern portions of our area. Visibility has been around a mile on average, based on reports and traffic cameras, but a few instances of locally dense fog have occurred. The fog should gradually lift into a low stratus layer while drifting westward. Any lingering stratus should quickly dissipate later this morning as boundary layer mixing takes its toll. Expecting high temps to be a bit above guidance today owing to the efficient boundary layer mixing. Dew points likely a bit below guidance as well.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The beginning of the forecast period remains similar with high pressure building in from the NW behind the prior week trough. This will aid in subsidence over the region, dropping dew points into the low 60s during the daytime hours and upper 50s at night. A weak shortwave on the SW edge of the high may push a few lingering cirrus overhead and could provide enough low level moisture for a few diurnal cumulus, but otherwise clouds will be mostly clear through Thursday. This all said, there is fairly strong NW flow remaining aloft, and within it, opaque smoke cover from upstream fires may lead to slightly hazy skies at times, for this reason cloud cover will be made at least 20 percent. With 850mb temperatures remaining the same over the next 48 hours, surface temperatures should respond accordingly; although the slightly drier near surface air may allow for afternoon highs to push a bit higher with the current expected highs between 84-86F.

As we approach the weekend, super-geostrophic flow over the Rockies' ridge will help induce pressure falls over the Missouri Valley. Due to the placement of the jet, much of the pressure depletion will be due to very strong diffluence and thus weak steering flow with a majority of the ensemble members showing the mid level low becoming detached from the flow aloft. While ensemble members agree on this overall pattern, the path and the strength of the cutoff low very some due to the lack of strong dynamics. While rain looks generally likely for the weekend, specifics regarding magnitude of QPF and timing are uncertain, and likely will remain that way until ensembles are able to ingest the cutoff low directly.

For next week, there are not any strong signals within the 300mb pattern leading to fairly high uncertainty on precipitation. However, regarding temperatures, the polar jet looks to be well displaced to the north, with should allow for above average 850mb temperatures and therefor some likelihood of above average surface temperatures.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 646 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Skies should be mostly clear throughout the day outside of a few diurnal cumulus around 5000ft. Winds will begin out of the NW/NNW but should become out of the N/NNE throughout the morning. Winds should predominately stay below 10kt, but a brief periods of sustained greater than 10kt are possible.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.