textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- COLD WEATHER ADVISORY in effect through 9 am Sunday

- Cold temperatures will continue, with below normal temperatures likely to persist well into mid February

- Chances for light snow tonight into Monday morning, Tuesday, and Thursday night into Friday, with light accumulations possible each time

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

The persistent north-south lake effect stratus streamer off lake Michigan has finally started to thin along the Illinois-Indiana border with most of the forecast area under clear skies. There was a wide variation in temperatures across central Indiana with some locations as cold as -10 to -5 while some spots primarily within the lower Wabash Valley where stratus still lingered remained in the teens.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will drift across the Ohio Valley today with dry weather and warmer temperatures as winds pivot around to the southwest by this afternoon. A fast moving upper level wave will spread clouds back into the region tonight with light snow late tonight into Monday morning.

CAMs have continued to struggle mightily with the specifics within the bitterly cold Arctic airmass that has now been in place over the region for more than a week. Those issues are present within the early morning model suite in overdoing yet again potential fog/freezing fog concerns through the predawn and into the morning. While shallow moisture remains within the near surface layer... analysis of ACARS soundings over the last few hours at KIND show that the hi-res models are exaggerating both the lingering inversion and moisture trapped beneath it. Observations across the area have shown localized freezing fog already early this morning and anticipate that to continue and likely expand slightly in coverage through daybreak. That being said...the widespread dense freezing fog and subsequent expansion of low stratus being suggested by the model suite over the next several hours is far overdone.

There will be sunshine this morning but any localized fog and stratus may take a bit of time to mix out through the morning as the surface ridge axis moves across the region with continued light and variable flow. As the ridge axis shifts east this afternoon... southwest flow will develop with partly cloudy skies anticipated before cloud cover returns from the west after sunset.

An upper wave will swing across the region late tonight with a mid level vort lobe moving through the forecast area during the predawn hours. While the overall model blend has struggled to depict this feature...the presence of the upper level forcing should be sufficient to spread an area of light snow across the forecast area after 06Z Monday and likely lasting through daybreak. Light accumulations around a half inch if not slightly higher are possible with elevated snow ratios in play.

Temps...the Cold Weather Advisory continues across the northeast half of the forecast area through 14Z and have seen wind chills within the advisory slip at times into the -15 to -10 range. This will be the last cold weather headline for the next few days as temperatures modify into the upcoming week. The onset of southwest flow this afternoon will aid in temperatures rising into the low and mid 20s across most of the forecast area. Lows tonight will range from the high single digits in the east to the mid teens over the Wabash Valley.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)

Issued at 253 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Expectations for the long term period remain roughly consistent as in recent days - for the most part, continued below normal temperatures, and at least a couple/few opportunities for light accumulating snowfall.

The tail end of a weak clipper system tonight may allow flurries or light snow to persist into Monday. Guidance in general, but especially blended guidance struggles with low QPF light snow, and have kept snow chances here in lieu of the dry blend.

Deterministic models have continued to stick with a weaker and further south depiction of the mid week system, though some potential for light accumulations will still exist, primarily during the day on Tuesday across the southern half or so of the area in a deformation zone north of the surface low.

A third, fairly potent clipper will move through the upper Great Lakes into the northeast late in the work week, and appears likely to produce another opportunity for light accumulations Thursday night into Friday, with some potential for additional flurries or lake effect snow showers into the early portion of the weekend depending upon the flow orientation in the wake of the system.

The continued intrusion of Arctic airmasses into the region will keep temperatures below normal, sometimes well below normal, throughout the period. If the freezing mark is going to make it into Indy metro, it may be on Friday ahead of the aforementioned clipper, though this will depend significantly upon timing of said system, and there is a perhaps substantial chance that guidance temperatures are too warm here. It is entirely possible Indianapolis does not reach the freezing mark until well into mid February.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 542 AM EST Sun Feb 1 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog early this morning - Pockets of MVFR ceilings today, becoming more widespread late tonight with a chance for light snow predawn Monday

Discussion:

Much of central Indiana remained clear early this morning with localized fog. The fog will take some time to diminish this morning while MVFR stratus currently developing across eastern Illinois and northwest Indiana may expand back into KHUF and KLAF later this morning. The lower clouds will mix out for the afternoon as a high pressure ridge passes through the Ohio Valley. Clouds will return for this evening into the overnight in advance of a fast moving upper level wave. Scattered light snow is likely to accompany the wave and overspread the region in the predawn hours Monday. Have introduced prob 30s for snow at both KIND and KLAF where confidence in impacts is highest.

Light and variable winds this morning will become S/SW at 5 to 10kts in the afternoon before becoming light again tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for INZ021- 029>031-036>042-045>049-054>057-063>065-072.