textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly Sunny and Cooler today.

- Best rain chances return Saturday Night into Sunday.

- Mild and wet pattern likely Monday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across southern Indiana near the Ohio River. Aloft, water vapor showed a ridge axis stretching from the lower Mississippi to the northern plains states. GOES19 showed clear skies across much of Indiana and points to the northwest, dominated by the high pressure system, while mainly high cloud was streaming across the plains states on the windward side of the ridge axis.

Today...

The upstream ridge will continue to produce subsidence across the area as the surface high pressure system pushes southeast into the Great Lakes, Indiana and Ohio. Forecast soundings remain dry through the day. Thus Mostly Sunny skies will be expected, along with cooler high temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70.

Tonight and Saturday...

The ridge axis to the west is expected to push east of Indiana late tonight and Into Saturday. This will end subsidence across Indiana as windward side upglide begins. The first sign of this will be invading CI this evening and into Saturday. Forecast soundings show saturation aloft as the high clouds found to the west begin to reach Indiana. The lower levels remain very dry however. This will be due to the strong surface high pressure in place east of Indiana. Thus dry weather will be expected to tonight and Saturday as high clouds increase across the area.

Saturday Night and Sunday...

A warm front is suggested to develop over Southern IL and western KY by Saturday night and begin to push across Indiana through Sunday morning. The 300K GFS Isentropic surface shows moderate lift, with specific humidities over 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings show a top down saturation occurring through the overnight and into Sunday with pwats around 1.3 inches. Meanwhile aloft, a moderate upper trough is suggested to push in to Illinois and Indiana providing forcing. Thus there are plenty of ingredients for rain during this time and confidence is high for widespread measurable rain as these features pass through Sunday. Clouds and precip will result in a cooler day on Sunday with highs only in the lower 60s.

Monday through Thursday...

A wet and mild pattern is suggested to be in place for much of the next work week. An upper trough is suggested to be over Indiana on Monday, with Sunday/s forcing dynamics exiting east. Still plenty of moisture will remain in place as the 300K isentropic surface shows lift with high specific humidities near 6 g/kg. Forecast soundings start the day with a saturated column, but dry air is shown to intrude into the column through the day. Thus pops will be needed mainly during the morning hours.

Models suggest a much stronger upper trough over the plains on Tuesday, poised to push toward Indiana by Thursday before becoming a closed upper low over the Tennessee valley. Cyclonic flow will remain across the area through this period. Within the lower levels an associated strong surface low will be approaching from the plains, allowing for a warm and moist gulf flow streaming into the Ohio valley. Forecast soundings through Thursday should periods of deep saturation and high pwats as these upper dynamics remain passing through our region. Thus pops will need to be included on Tuesday through Thursday. Temperatures will remain above normal given the warm and moist southerly flow, but cooler than we have seen this past week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1224 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions expected

Discussion:

A cold front has passed south of the TAF sites, allowing high pressure over the upper midwest to begin to arrive in the area. GOES19 shows clear skies in the wake of the front building across Indiana. This will result in VFR conditions today. Forecast soundings show a dry column. Winds will be light and from the east as the high builds across the area.

Late in the period high CI will begin to invade from the southwest as an upper trough begins to build across the area.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.