textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous rain showers with a few thunderstorms today

- Dry this weekend with much warmer air returning by Sunday

- Chances for rain and storms returns through the first half of next week with the potential for severe weather and renewed flooding

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 937 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Light showers are across the northern forecast area this morning, ahead of a cold front. The front itself remains farther northwest in northwest Indiana.

Dry low levels remain south of the current area of rain, which may help initially impede the southward movement of the band of rain. Raised PoPs where rain is falling and to the east where it will move in the next couple of hours. Tightened the north-south gradient of PoPs so that PoPs were lowered across portions of the south this morning. Also, removed thunder mention the next couple of hours with no lightning observed or expected with the weak convection.

This afternoon, moisture should increase some south. Additional scattered to numerous showers will develop with increased moisture and instability. However, the extent of moisture recovery remains uncertain, so the higher end of the PoPs has lower confidence. Isolated thunderstorms may occur if instability gets high enough, but no strong or severe storms are expected.

Will have to keep an eye on temperatures, as increased cloud cover may limit readings across the central and southern portions of the area. However, with readings already above guidance this morning, left forecast highs alone for now.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 251 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

High clouds were increasing early this morning ahead of a cold front extending from the lower Great Lakes into northern Missouri. All of the showers were postfrontal across the northwest half of Illinois. 06Z temperatures ranged from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

The cold front will track south across the forecast area throughout the day with showers and a few rumbles of thunder. The front will settle across the Tennessee Valley for Saturday before surging back north as a warm front early Sunday. The boundary will then become quasi-stationary to the north of the area into the first half next week...but close enough to bring periodic convective threats to the region in a warm and increasingly humid airmass.

Today through Sunday

Convection has steadily weakened to the west as instability has been lost. These showers will drift into the northern Wabash Valley shortly before daybreak and continue east through the morning with overall coverage and intensity gradually weakening. Dry adiabatic flow through the boundary layer will pull down gusts to near 25 mph at times into the afternoon as the aforementioned low level jet shifts east through the region. Model soundings show limited instability and moisture into the afternoon which will keep any convection scattered. The primary focus for any thunder will be primarily south of I-70 for this afternoon as the front continues to press south.

High pressure will advect much drier air into the forecast area from the north tonight with skies becoming mostly clear as the cold front shifts south of the Ohio River. Lows tonight may make it as low as 36 or 37 degrees across north central Indiana but any frost accrual should remain isolated at best with winds hovering at 5-10mph all night. The high will shift from lower Michigan Saturday morning into New England on Sunday. This will keep dry weather across the Ohio Valley and once the front lifts back north through the area early Sunday...a windy and much warmer airmass with highs rising into the lower 80s.

Sunday Night through Thursday

An amplified upper level regime highlighted by a western trough and an eastern ridge will support a transition to a more active as multiple pieces of energy eject out from trough and across the central part of the country. This will set the stage for a multiple day risk for severe weather that will initially align to the southwest of the area in closer proximity to the frontal boundary. While the extended model suite remains in a bit of flux on potential potential convective impacts locally...there remains a focus on Tuesday and Wednesday as a stronger surface wave kicks out along the boundary and moves into the upper Midwest. Given the projected kinematic profiles and available instability...all modes of severe weather would be in play across central Indiana during this timeframe. Temperatures will remain warm next week with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s each day.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1148 AM EDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Impacts:

- Scattered rain showers this afternoon with MVFR ceilings. - Returning to VFR conditions tonight.

Discussion:

A cold front just north of the TAF sites early this afternoon will slowly sag southward across central Indiana and the TAF sites through the rest of the day. As the front passes, MVFR ceilings, as seen on upstream observations, are expected to pass across the TAF sites. Radar returns across the area have been diminishing, but HRRR suggests new development this afternoon as the front slides southward and warmer and a bit more humid air amid max heating of the day. Areal coverage of any precipitation should be light and limited, so any prevailing showers are not expected for a great duration.

As cold air advection begins, some MVFR cigs are expected to linger this evening, as seen in upstream observations and forecast soundings. Overnight, stronger high pressure over the upper midwest along with the continued southward progress of the front will lead to a return to VFR.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.