textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold and dry through at least Friday evening, with wind chills well into the teens tonight and tomorrow night

- Winter Storm Watch Saturday through early Sunday with snow impacting travel Saturday

- Wind chills in the teens through much of early next week

- Additional chances for snow early next week

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 924 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Surface analysis late this evening shows strong high pressure centered over the Dakotas with a ridge axis extending southeast across MO and then east to KY. GOES19 shows clear skies across southern Indiana, while cyclonic flow across the northeast parts of Indiana was still allowing mid level stratocu to be present. Radar shows some lake snow over far northern Indiana, but this was not impacting Central Indiana. Gusty winds across the area have subsided.

Overnight, the surface high pressure will continue to build east into Indiana. as this occurs, clouds across the northern parts of the forecast area are expected to exit as the lower level flow becomes less cyclonic. This will lead to clear or clearing skies through the night across the forecast area. Temperatures will remain cold. Clouds across the northern parts of the forecast area may insulate the surface for a next few hours, but as skies clear, all temperatures will fall to the upper teens or around 20.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday night)

Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Cold Canadian high pressure will be the predominant feature across the area throughout the vast majority of the short term period.

As the high traverses the area tomorrow into tomorrow evening and the surface pressure gradient relaxes, breezy conditions will finally relent, though this will only modestly improve the biting early season chill in the air, with wind chills a few degrees warmer Friday and Friday night than today and tonight.

Modest mixing will continue to promote gusts to around 20KT at times through sunset, and sustained winds tonight will remain up a bit. This will keep temperatures from completely bottoming out despite the clearing, though lows will still likely drop to near 20 if not the upper teens in spots.

Friday will be the "nicest" day of the holiday weekend, with some thin mid and high cloud but plenty of sunshine despite the cold highs in the low to mid 30s.

Friday night should be dry for the most part, with gradually increasing clouds ahead of the incoming weekend winter system. Models want to move some measurable precip into the area as early as just before daybreak Saturday, but this is uncertain given the magnitude of the low level dry layer that will take some time to saturate in a top down manner. The more significant precipitation is likely to hold off until the daytime hours.

Light winds will allow temperatures to drop quickly Friday evening, but the increasing cloud cover and the beginnings of very weak warm advection should help to slow this drop late.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 140 PM EST Thu Nov 27 2025

Saturday.

The main focus for the long term period will be tracking the accumulating snow threat for Saturday. Synoptically, an upper level shortwave will push southeast out of the Northern Rockies with weak southeasterly surface flow ahead of the arrival of the low. As the low nears, both surface and LLJ winds will begin to ramp up with the strongest winds aloft expected during the evening hours. The low track continues to look well to the northwest of central Indiana with the main question being the strength of the WAA and its impacts to surface temperatures and any warm nose aloft.

Basic pattern recognition continues to counterbalance model output with the latest GFS/NAM runs bringing a broad 6-10 inches across the state with the NAM coming in hottest in SW Indiana where QPF is maximized. The positive snow depth change is much more modest at 4-6 inches which makes sense in a marginal thermodynamic situation as temperatures will hover around freezing. Ahead of the arrival of snow, temperatures will be well below freezing so there won't be any issues with snow accumulation initially but as the evening and early overnight hours roll around, near to slightly above freezing temperatures will help to lower snow ratios and lead to at least some melting. The warm nose also looks to be underdone by the models which could further help to lower snow ratios, especially across the southern half of central Indiana.

Travel impacts look increasingly likely during the afternoon and evening hours Saturday. It remains very uncertain on specific snowfall totals, but a reasonable expectation at this time looks to be 3-5 inches across north central Indiana with 2-4 towards Indianapolis and around 1-3 in points to the south. There remains the potential for both higher amounts anywhere in central Indiana and an all-rain scenario across far southern portions of central Indiana. Confidence in the higher end solution is higher than a lower end scenario. Much of the impacts will be over a 6-8 hour window beginning sometime in the late morning/early afternoon hours with impacts lessening towards midnight as temperatures warm.

After consulting with neighbors, we've decided to issue a Winter Storm Watch covering early Saturday morning through Sunday morning with the understanding that some of the areas may not reach the typical 5 inch snow criteria. With the holiday weekend travel and the potential for the higher end amounts we feel confident in a Winter Storm Warning being necessary for at least parts of central Indiana and a Winter Weather Advisory likely for much of the rest of not all of the rest. The area highlighted is where we are most confident in the higher-end amounts.

Sunday Through Thursday.

Going into Sunday much cooler temperatures will quickly move in as the low moves into the Great Lakes and much colder air pushes in on the backside of the system. There will be at least some mid-level forcing on the backside of the system which will bring the potential for additional rain/snow chances through the day Sunday with some signs of lingering flurries into Monday. Temperatures will then remain below normal through Wednesday with another low-end chance for additional snow Monday night into Tuesday while areas to the south of central Indiana may see potential heavy rain. Wind chills in the single digits are expected at times Tuesday and Wednesday with the much below normal temperatures and breezy conditions.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1206 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Bulk of the stratocumulus will be east of the TAF sites at the start of the period. Similarly, the bulk of the lake effect clouds will remain east of the sites during the night. Will have a scattered layer where needed.

Sky cover will be minimal during the day Friday, but then some mid and high clouds will move in Friday evening.

Winds of 10-15kt will slowly diminish during the day Friday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from late tonight through Sunday afternoon for INZ021-028>031-035>049-051-052.