textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds up to 25 to 35 mph, diminishing this afternoon. Gusty winds return on Tuesday up to 30 mph.

- Low rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday...with snow showers at times late Wednesday into the early weekend

- Well-below normal temperatures possible late this weekend into early next week

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Yesterday's deep upper-level trough has rapidly departed eastward, leaving broad northwesterly flow in its place. Embedded within this flow is a weak vort max currently moving over the Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure has passed to our south allowing winds to become southwesterly. Wind speeds and gustiness are expected to increase this morning as the vort max makes its closest approach. Diurnal mixing timed with the maximum MSLP gradient should promote wind gusts between 25-35mph at times. Speeds and gusts decrease during the afternoon hours as the system departs.

A period of mid/high-level cloudiness is anticipated with the passing system as well. The short-lived period of broken or overcast skies should begin to clear early in the afternoon, allowing for a period of mostly clear skies. Modest warm air advection from the southwest combined with efficient mixing and sunshine will allow for a warmer day than yesterday. Highs in the 40s are expected for most of the area.

Though the MSLP gradient relaxes a bit following the departing system, it doesn't relax completely. With surface high pressure remaining well to our south, a southwesterly breeze is expected to persist into the night tonight. As such, lows will likewise be warmer than the day before though still below freezing. Expect lows in the upper 20s to near 30 degrees.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 301 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

The CONUS will remain in a East Coast troughing pattern through a majority of the long term, placing the Ohio Valley on the western extent. This will lead to variable temperature swings, beginning with much above normal temperatures on Tuesday. The surge of warm air to begin the long term will be through westerly WAA out ahead of a very positively tilted upper trough. Current expectation is for highs in the upper 40s to low 50s, but given strength of WAA, a few areas may exceed 55. Wind gusts Tuesday afternoon should also be fairly strong (between 20-25kt) as the PBL lifts to above 3000ft, mixing into a 25-35kt LLJ.

There is some chances for rain later on Tuesday as a cold front dives southward. However, due to the lack of southerly low level flow ahead of the front, minimal convergence is expected along the passing low level boundary late Tuesday, limiting rain coverage. If rain does occur, most areas should see less than 0.05 inches.

Temperatures will fall off quickly Wednesday as this surge of cold air behind the aforementioned front reinforces upper level troughing over the region. This will be further supported by a strong Rex block over the West Coast, promoting a strong N to S oriented jet streak later this week over the Inter-Mountain west and a retrograde to the upper level troughing. This will place the trough axis much closer to the Ohio Valley. In return, much colder temperatures are expected towards the end of the long term, with multiple chances for light snow along passing weak shortwaves. Best chance for snow as of this forecast issuance is late Friday through Saturday morning.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 624 AM EST Mon Jan 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts between 25-30kt this morning into the afternoon - Gusty winds resume on Tuesday with gusts to 30kt

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings have departed to the east, leaving VFR conditions in place which are expected to persist through the TAF period.

South-southwest winds between 5-10kt are expected through sunrise today, before diurnal mixing allows speeds and gustiness to increase. Winds sustained between 15-20kt gusting 25-30kt are likely. Winds should diminish later this afternoon as a system to our north exits eastward. Winds increase again on Tuesday as another system approaches passes by to our northwest. Expect SW wind gusts up to 30kt late Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

A period of BKN/OVC mid/high-level cloud cover is likely this morning as the aforementioned system passes by.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.