textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers possible this morning, clearing this afternoon.

- Wind gusts of 20-30 mph possible today.

- Much colder starting Sunday with chances for light precipitation late Saturday through Monday

- Lows in the 20s Sunday night and Monday night, with wind chills in the teens at times Sunday night into Monday night

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 953 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Precipitation is quickly exiting central Indiana with many locations seeing amounts of around a tenth of an inch. Shower coverage is currently limited to a broken line between Bloomington and Muncie and then towards Lebanon. Expectations through the rest of the day generally remain the same with lingering clouds into the afternoon and dew points continuing to gradually rise in the aftermath of the precipitation. With strong surface pressure gradients, wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph will become more frequent towards mid-afternoon. Temperatures remain on track form the previous forecast with highs in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows a moderate trough stretching from MN, across IA to Western MO. This was resulting warm southwesterly flow across Indiana. GOES19 shows a stream of mid and high clouds ahead of the trough pushing across IL and into Indiana. Radar shows a line of showers ahead of the trough stretching from eastern WI to northern and central IL.

Today...

Models shows a quick flow in place across the CONUS. The previously mentioned upper trough will push toward Indiana today before exiting tonight. Best forcing dynamics will pass ahead of the trough, passing across Central Indiana during the course of the morning hours. Forecast soundings at that time reveal some limited saturated at that time. HRRR has trended to show scattered light showers arriving early this morning across central Indiana before quickly exiting around noon. Time heights show some lingering saturation in the wake of the wave this afternoon, but subsidence appears to return by 00Z. Thus will focus pops mainly during the morning hours and trend toward a dry forecast by this afternoon. Some clouds may linger through the afternoon. Overall, any precipitation will be light and due to the expected scattered nature of the precipitation, not everyone will receive rain. Expect highs in the middle 60s. The moderate pressure gradient in place ahead of the surface trough may result in in wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph.

Tonight...

Dry and slightly cooler weather will return tonight as an associated weak cool front pushes across Indiana. Forecast soundings at this time trend toward a dry column as weak ridging aloft along with associated subsidence builds toward Indiana. Furthermore the surface pressure gradient weakens overnight as weak high pressure builds across the area. Thus a trend toward mostly clear skies and light winds is expected. Look for lows to be slightly cooler, in the lower 40s.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 310 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Saturday through Monday night...

The long term will begin with a complex synoptic set-up including an overall zonal upper flow over the Midwest and vicinity...bounded by a short wave trough plunging slightly into the central Plains...and a more impressive upstream cut-off trough over southern Hudson Bay beginning to descend southward towards the CONUS along with an early winter surface ridge over the Canadian High Plains. The weekend into early next week will see the Plains short wave induce surface cyclogenesis that will cross the local region Saturday evening... before the Hudson Bay trough plows southward into the Great Lakes/ Midwest Sunday-Monday, bringing much colder conditions and at least flurries of snow to much of the central Indiana region.

This will all translate to a pleasant day Saturday as the approaching developing surface low nudges its warm front eastward into Indiana... allowing at least low 60s for most the area on light westerly breezes under increasing clouds. Similar to the short term's light rainfall event, the passing wave will bring at least a few rain showers Saturday night with low confidence in any area picking up more than 0.10 inches of precipitation.

Sunday will be the day of transition. The departing/deepening low will promote increasing/robust northwest breezes. This will combine with differential positive vorticity advection from the northern cut- off's approaching axis, to direct a fetch of lake-enhanced convective precipitation from southern Lake Michigan into northern Indiana and probably also several local counties, mainly east of the I-65 corridor. The Canadian surface ridge will simultaneously expand through the Plains and also build eastward into the Midwest, with highs around 40F leading to decreasing afternoon readings that will fall rapidly after sundown. Isolated to scattered showers are expected to change from rain to all snow flurries during afternoon/ evening hours.

Sunday night through Monday night will bring the lowest readings, with lows 20-25F both nights, and highs Monday most likely in the mid to upper 30s. Moderate to robust west-northwest flow will occasionally gust up to 25-30 mph for many locations until the upper trough's core finally slides east into Ohio Monday afternoon. Flurries will likely continue through much of day Monday, especially from north-central to eastern zones, courtesy this upstream forcing/lake fetch. Lower confidence surrounds coverage, intensity and location of any better organized snow showers that may produce isolated light accumulations. This potential would be greatest near and northeast of the Kokomo/Anderson/New Castle areas. Any impacts would likely be greatest from possibly icy surfaces Sunday night/early Monday when temperatures fall 20 degrees to well below freezing levels.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Winter type pattern featuring a stronger mid-latitude gradient from southwestern Canada into the northeastern CONUS will oversee lingering surface high pressure across the Deep South and broad but less intense stacked low pressure slowly crossing the James Bay area. Robust southwesterly gusts Tuesday into Wednesday will lead a moderation back to near normal temperatures by the end of the long term. Clipper type ripple in the upper gradient should cross the CWA and keep the upward temperature trend from exceeding the mainly 55- 60 degree range. Generally moisture-starved column would prevent any accompanying organized rain showers. The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is 54/36.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 556 AM EST Fri Nov 7 2025

Impacts:

- MVFR Cigs possible today at LAF and IND, otherwise mainly VFR conditions this TAF period.

- Light showers this morning, mainly at LAF and IND

- Gusty winds today of 20-30 knts

- Return to VFR at all locations by late afternoon.

Discussion:

GOES19 shows clouds associated with an advancing trough pushing toward Indiana. Cigs were deteriorating toward low VFR conditions.

Radar shows an area of showers within the Wabash valley, poised to quickly push across the Taf sites this morning, with best areal coverage expected at LAF and IND. Precip should exit the state by 16Z as suggested by the HRRR. Thus have contained VCSH mention to this time window. Some MVFR/low VFR cloud will linger this afternoon win the wake of the precipitation.

A moderate pressure gradient will remain in place across the area through the afternoon leading to wind gusts of 20-30 knts.

Winds will subside near and after 00Z as heating is lost and the pressure gradient weakens.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.