textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild through Wednesday Morning.

- Rain and turning colder on Wednesday Night, with more rain chances through Friday. Highs on Thursday and Friday may only reach the 40s.

- Mainly dry weather for the weekend with temperatures at or below seasonal normals.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)

Issued at 127 PM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure over Arkansas and TN, with a ridge axis extending north across IL and IN. Aloft, water vapor shows a Pacific stream of moisture flowing across ID and MT to the upper midwest, running into a ridge axis, before diving southeast toward the middle Atlantic States. Subsidence was in place over IL and IN. GOES19 shows clear skies over Indiana. Dew points were mainly in the lower 40s

Tonight and Tuesday...

Dry and mild weather is expected through Tuesday Night. The dry, Pacific NW flow aloft will continue to flow across Indiana with little in the way of upper level forcing passing within the flow. A weak and dry frontal boundary found stretching from MN to western KS will continue to push east and pass across Indiana tonight, allowing the arrival of another area of strong high pressure from the northern plains states. Forecast soundings tonight through Tuesday Night suggest a dry column. After warmer lows tonight, highs will also be warmer on Tuesday, reaching the mid 60s. Mostly clear skies are expected.

Wednesday...

A moderate short wave will push toward Indiana on Wednesday, reaching our area late in the afternoon and into the evening. This initial wave will set the stage for the coming cool down over the weekend. An associated area of low pressure will push across IA, placing central Indiana within the warm sector as we start the day. Mild southerly flow will be in place through much of the day, until the surface low and a cold front arrive in the area late in the day. Forecast soundings start the day quite dry but trend toward deep saturation by late afternoon. Thus a dry morning will be expected with increasing pops during the afternoon. With the cloud cover arriving as the day progresses, highs on Wednesday should be a little cooler than Tuesday. Look for rain and much colder temperatures on Wednesday night as the low and cold front passes as winds become northerly.

Thursday through Monday...

A change in the weather will be in play during this time. Models suggest a highly amplified upper flow across the CONUS in place by Thursday and persisting through the weekend.

Starting on Thursday, A strong upper ridge will be in place over the Rockies while a deep trough is found across the Great Lakes and into the TN valley. A pair of short waves within that flow are poised to push through Indiana amid a much colder northerly flow. A deep area of associated surface low pressure will be found over OH and KY, providing strong cyclonic and wrap around flow across Indiana. Although best moisture should be cut off at that point, wrap around moisture will persist and pops will be needed into Thursday Night. Strong cold air advection and cloud cover will be in play on Thursday. High temperatures around 50 may be optimistic as high may not get out of the 40s.

More chances for precip will be in play on Friday as strong and deep troughing looks to be in place across the eastern United States and several embedded short waves within that flow will push across Indiana. Moisture will remain limited due to the cold northerly flow, but early forecast soundings suggest convective temps near 40F with a convective signal within the column. Thus pops will need to be used again. With the arrival of even colder air, highs in the lower 40s will be possible.

Dry but continued colder weather looks to be in store for Saturday through Monday. The previous ridging in place over the western United States will push eastward and build across Indiana through Monday. An initial ridge axis will arrive on Sunday with a secondary ridge arriving Monday. Meanwhile a very large area of Canadian high pressure will arrive across the eastern United States on Saturday before settling over the Great Lakes on Monday. This will bring dry weather, a bit more sunshine, and temperatures at or below seasonal normals.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1122 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions this TAF period

Discussion:

A strong ridge of surface high pressure stretching from Arkansas to IL/IN and then to MI will drift east of the TAF sites this afternoon, as another dry cold front as seen over the plains states is expected to pass on tonight. This front has little in the way of clouds available and no precipitation. Thus continued VFR.

A new area of high pressure will build across Central Indiana on Tuesday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.