textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs returning to the 20s today and Thursday

- Temperatures briefly warming above freezing Friday with increasing confidence in an extended period of warmer than normal temperatures developing next week

- Low chance for light wintry precipitation focused over the northeast half of central Indiana Thursday night into Friday, otherwise dry weather expected through the weekend

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Quiet weather conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. Current satellite imagery and observations depict a low stratus deck mainly near and north of the I-70 corridor gradually pushing south. This stratus deck is associated with stronger subsidence behind a frontal boundary that moved through earlier. South-central Indiana remains mostly clear at this time and is cooler than areas to the north. Subtle cold air advection will cool temperatures gradually, but look for diurnal cooling to be limited from the clouds. Temperatures should mostly remain in the teens through daybreak.

Expect the aforementioned stratus deck to mix out some during the morning leading to greater sunshine, but scattered low clouds are likely through much of the day, especially with slight redevelopment into the afternoon hours. This along with a colder airmass settling over the region and N/NE flow will keep highs well below normal. Expect highs to generally range from the low-mid 20s.

Forecast soundings show a strong subsidence inversion in place through tonight which will keep moisture trapped in the low- levels. This along with slight nocturnal cooling beneath the inversion could lead to redevelopment of the stratus deck overnight. High resolution guidance supports this with the HREF depicting increasing coverage of low clouds. Lows overnight were increased for this reason and may need to be adjusted further depending on how quickly clouds redevelop. Current forecasted lows range from the upper single digits to the lower teens.

LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 250 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

An amplified upper level trough will remain the prominent feature across the eastern U S into the first part of the weekend with another strong upper low diving southeast from James Bay into New England Friday and Saturday. This will deepen the trough prior to shifting off the East Coast by the end of the weekend. With the Ohio Valley on the back side of the trough in a northwest flow regime...moisture return will remain limited with only a limited opportunity for light precipitation late week as low pressure passes to the northeast of the region. The eastward expansion of ridging aloft for the first half of next week will advect milder air into the region with temperatures climbing to above normal levels.

Dry weather is expected for most of the second half of the week with the exception of the aforementioned low pressure and an associated cold front. This will bring a period of snow showers focused primarily across the northeast half of the forecast area late Thursday into Friday with the potential for a few flurries or even freezing drizzle based on low level thermal analysis. An upper level wave will pass through the Great Lakes early Sunday and may produce a few flurries over far northern portions of central Indiana... otherwise dry conditions are expected through Monday. There remain signals for a more active weather pattern developing across the Ohio Valley Tuesday through much of next week as a quasi-zonal regime aloft develops over much of the country.

Highs will remain colder than normal through the first part of the extended but a more pronounced warming trend will commence by early next week. Highs will hold in the 20s Thursday followed by a brief bump up into the mid and upper 30s before daytime highs fall back largely into the 20s and lower 30s for Saturday. Temperatures will begin to modify on Sunday...eventually rising into the 40s over most of the forecast area by Tuesday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 629 AM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for MVFR ceilings most of the period

- VFR conditions are possible at times as low clouds scatter out today, but uncertainty remains Discussion:

A low stratus deck has spread across all sites with increasing subsidence aloft behind a departing weak frontal boundary. MVFR ceilings are being reported at all sites and may continue for much of the period. Some diurnal mixing and drier air should help to scatter out clouds enough to allow for at least a brief period of VFR conditions, but uncertainty remains. A TEMPO SCT025 was included from around 15-19Z today for all sites to identify the best chance for this clearing.

Redevelopment of low clouds is possible later this afternoon and into the overnight period with MVFR ceilings persisting. Winds will be N- NE 6-10 kts today. Winds then become light and variable overnight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.