textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Light snow is possible late tonight into Sunday morning with an inch or less possible

- Light rain and snow may occur at times mid to late week next week

- Ice Jam development remains a concern next week with milder temperatures expected

SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Satellite shows lake-effect clouds extending from Lake Michigan to about the Indianapolis area. These clouds have gradually evolved from stratus to stratocumulus in conjunction with peak daytime heating. Surface observations show high pressure building in from the west, though the high's center is not quite here yet. With diminishing winds off the lake, broad subsidence arriving, and the dependence of stratocumulus on diurnal heating, we expect these clouds to diminish quickly this evening.

We do not expect skies to become completely clear, however, as a clipper system approaches from the west. High cirrus is already beginning to appear on the western sky. Cirrus should remain thin through the evening hours, which may allow for a period of decent radiative cooling potential before midnight. Combined with light winds and a residual snowpack, temperatures likely drop fast after 00z before leveling off as thicker mid/high-level clouds arrive. Lows tonight are therefore tricky since they depend on how quickly thicker cloud cover arrives. We've trended lower than guidance across the eastern half of our CWA and near to above guidance across the west, since the clouds arrive from the west.

Focusing back on the aforementioned clipper system...guidance is showing decent warm air advection arriving late tonight ahead of the system. This, combined with some broad mid-level convergence, leads to a narrow area of frontogenesis on the northeastern flank of the approaching system. Additionally, some upper-level divergence will help with overall lifting. Nearly all guidance shows a band of light snow developing late tonight into Sunday morning coincident with this region of forcing. Some CAMs are a bit aggressive showing a couple of inches of snowfall, though most guidance is on the light side with around an inch on average. The biggest question is placement of the band, as guidance is in relatively poor agreement on its exact location. A loose consensus puts it over the northeastern portion of our CWA. As such, we've included a broad area of slight to chance PoPs from Indianapolis northeastward.

A potential limiting factor for snowfall overnight into Sunday is a very dry layer of air between 900mb and 800mb. This could easily prevent most of the snow from reaching the ground, especially outside of the primary axis of lift. If anything, this likely keeps the snow band narrow as lighter snow on the edges fails to reach the ground. Only in the middle of the band could the snow be heavy enough to reach the surface. Tonight's forecast will likely need to be refined as guidance comes into better agreement on the exact placement of the snow band.

LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)

Issued at 255 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Substantially warmer temperatures are a welcome expectation during the coming week. A couple of opportunities for precipitation are expected from mid week onward, though uncertainty is fairly high at this point.

The synoptic pattern looks to deamplify significantly during the week, with upper level flow becoming significantly more zonal for much of the week and even some weak upper level ridging possible at times. Complex evolution of upper level disturbances and a frontal zone that may set up to our south later this week, along with guidance discrepancies that grow significantly with time, lead to a lower confidence forecast with respect to precipitation, which will keep chances fairly low for the most part, and uncertainty with respect to type.

The early week will be dry under the influence of strong surface high pressure to our east. A dry cold front will pass through the area late Tuesday, with the tail end stalling to our south at least temporarily. Convergence along this boundary and a modest upper level disturbance may promote the development of rain late Tuesday into early Wednesday, with some potential for mixing north, though as guidance continues to trend steadily southward with this precip, there are significant questions as to how far north the precipitation threat will get, and indeed whether it will make it into central Indiana at all.

Late week into next weekend, models diverge greatly on their handling of the aforementioned frontal zone and potential for additional precip associated with it, or with a potential stronger low developing over the central CONUS. Low chances will be needed roughly from late Thursday onward, with some question as to type at times, but this portion of the forecast is extremely low confidence.

Confidence is greater that temperatures, especially during the first half of the week will be near to above normal, likely well above normal on Tuesday, with the remainder of the week likely settling somewhere in the range of seasonal normals, which, at least for Indianapolis are in the upper 30s for highs and low 20s for lows currently.

The quick warm up early next week along with rain chances will lead to growing concerns for ice jams and the potential for flooding along rivers. Greater rainfall amounts could enhance the threat, but most guidance keeps rainfall amounts relatively light at this time. The potential for ice jams will be monitored closely as river ice begins to thaw.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1251 PM EST Sat Feb 7 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible late tonight into Sunday - Low chance of snow showers near IND early Sunday

Discussion:

Lake-effect stratus continues to move southward into central Indiana. These clouds have been most prevalent from LAF to IND, with ceilings between 3000-3500 feet agl. LAF has recently dipped into MVFR territory, however, with a 2900 ft ceiling. MVFR conditions may be possible at times this afternoon but VFR conditions will be far more common. Stratus begins to dissipate this evening as winds become light and variable.

A weak clipper system is approaching from the northwest and will allow mid and high-level clouds to increase this evening. Some light snow may be possible across portions of northeastern Indiana late tonight into Sunday morning. Guidance currently keeps this activity away from all the terminals, so snow will not be included in the TAFs at this time. IND stands the best (albeit quite low) chance of snow showers early Sunday. Lingering MVFR ceilings from the snow showers may drift westward Sunday afternoon.

Winds become light and variable tonight before taking on an easterly component on Sunday. Speeds remain under 10kt through Sunday morning before increasing during the afternoon hours.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.