textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening

- All severe hazards are possible, with the greatest tornado potential south of I-70.

- Strong wind gusts up to 45 mph late tonight through early afternoon Friday.

- Colder for the weekend, with scattered light snow possible Sunday

MESOSCALE UPDATE

Issued at 236 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Tornado watch 10 continues for southern portions of central Indiana. Surface analysis shows a warm front across far southern Indiana extending westward to near the STL metro area. Earlier thunderstorms that developed over SE IL were slightly elevated, as temperatures were only in the mid 60s and weakened as they moved further north into the more stable air.

12Z ILX sounding shows convective temperatures around 70F with 19Z temperatures into the upper 60s along and south of the warm front over far southern Indiana. Recent convective development to the west of Louisville has shown signs of moving to the right of the mean flow and nearly surface based. Maximized 3mb/2hr pressure falls is noted to the south of STL is indicative of increasing low level WAA. Convection within several weak clusters over southern IL driven by a subtle shortwave trough at 500 mb are beginning to intensify in a region of increasing deep moisture convergence supported by the increasing low level flow impinging along the warm front.

Despite the presence of steep mid 2-5 km lapse rates (7-7.5C/km), skinny CAPE profiles are noted due to an inversion centered between 5-6 km (per STL ACARS soundings). This will continue to limit overall instability and a rapid increase in convective development. Stronger low level SR inflow in the 21-23Z time period should support an increasing TS coverage and severe thunderstorm threat. The presence of strong effective deep layer shear (50-60 kts) will enhance updraft rotation and threat for large hail and damaging winds with pseudo/supercellular structures. Low level shear/SRH will remain maximized along the warm frontal boundary as it lifts slowly north into southern portions of central Indiana over the next few hours. As the 1-2km wind fields accelerate in the 21-23Z period, 0- 1km SRH will increase to between 200-300 m2/s2 leading to a greater potential for tornadoes after 21Z.

SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Rest of today/through midnight...

For details on the evolving severe threat across central Indiana, please see mesoscale updates.

Overnight...

Prefrontal trough/dryline is expected to push rapidly across central Indiana between 02Z and 05Z, ending convective precip and thunderstorm chances. As the surface low continues to intensity over the Mid MS valley (988 mb around near Chicago by 08Z), an associated cold front will accelerate across central Indiana between 08-12Z. Strong low level flow (40-45 kts as low as 2000 ft AGL) will couple with strong cold advection and modestly steep lapse rates below 850 mb to support wind gusts around 40 kts across NW portions of central Indiana and as high as 35 kts across area along I-70. A wind advisory was contemplated for far NW portions of central Indiana, but confidence on meeting over 45 mph gusts for any length of time is not sufficiently high at the moment. However, an SPS will be issued for these sub-advisory criteria winds.

Friday...

Winds will continue to be the main forecast concern during the day along with much colder temperatures. Have undercut NBM guidance by a few degrees on temps considering overcast skies and continued strong cold advection in the morning. Wind gusts will remain around 40 kts across northern portions of the forecast area through the morning, before a decrease in gusts during the afternoon owing to relaxing of the surface pressure gradient as the low pressure moves into northern lower MI as well as gradual decrease in the boundary layer wind fields.

LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)

Issued at 309 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Friday night and Saturday...

High pressure will nudge into the area and keep conditions dry and seasonable. Some guidance has rain just south of the area along an old front, but given the surface high and dry air locally, feel that odds of rain are too low to mention.

Sunday and Monday...

An upper level low will move southeast through the area on Sunday. This won't have a lot of moisture to work with, but it will still be enough for some scattered light snow showers, mainly northeast.

Colder air moving in with the low will generate some lake enhanced snow showers Sunday night and Monday. The bulk of these should remain north of central Indiana, but a few could sneak into the north and northeast.

Temperatures will be below normal with highs in the 30s and lows mainly in the 20s. Some area could see upper teens Monday night.

Tuesday and beyond...

Upper flow will become closer to zonal as the upper low exits the area. This will allow seasonable to even above normal temperatures to return. Highs could be around 50 by Wednesday and Thursday.

A cold front will bring chances of rain around Wednesday and Thursday, with some uncertainty on the timing of highest PoPs.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1249 PM EST Thu Feb 19 2026

Impacts:

- IFR conditions ending by 1900Z with MVFR ceilings redeveloping overnight.

- Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into mid evening with IFR visibilities and MVFR ceilings.

- Gusty WSW winds up to 35 kts late tonight through the day Friday with

Discussion:

IFR conditions have rapidly improved the last 1-2 hours with daytime heating. MVFR ceilings will be prevalent for another 1-2 hrs prior to convective arrival. Thunderstorm activity has increased recently along a warm front extending just north of the Ohio River. Thunderstorms will impact KHUF and KBMG earliest, before affecting KIND and KLAF later this afternoon. IFR visibilities are expected with the TS. The potential exist for GR or +TSRA especially for KHUF and KBMG, but have opted to leave out this for now, since limited duration and uncertainties on timing and threat are still fairly high.

Convection will end from west to east between 03 and 06Z with the passage of a fast moving surface wind shift. Wind gusts will pick up with the passage of this wind shift initially from 20-25 kts. A cold front will move across the TAF sites later tonight (08-10Z) with MVFR ceilings and winds becoming WSW with gusts from 30-35 kts. These conditions will continue through the day on Friday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.