textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather will prevail through this weekend

- Light winds and partly/mostly clear skies will oversee near to slightly above normal temperatures

DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 225 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Quiet weather is expected through the next seven days as surface high pressure remains dominant across the region. Guidance is in good agreement through the end of the week, showing upper ridging amplifying as it builds eastward across the region. Large scale subsidence will continue to keep the forecast dry. A weak cold front may push in from the northeast Thursday Night into Friday. The boundary appears very weak with temperatures only expected to drop a few degrees at most.

Temperatures will slightly warm over the weekend due to return flow as surface high pressure shifts east of central Indiana. Highs in the upper 60s to low 70s Friday should warm into the low-mid 70s by Sunday. Long range guidance begins to diverge regarding the upper level pattern towards the end of the weekend. A southern stream wave will likely get pulled northward and absorbed into the northern stream trough. Models differ on the overall evolution of these two features which leads to greater uncertainty in the extended forecast.

A cold front associated with the northern stream trough should eventually move through central Indiana around the early to middle of next week, but confidence on specific details such as timing remain limited. There also appears to be a non-zero chance for light precipitation from the approaching boundary. Some guidance depicts a narrow band of sufficient moisture surging north ahead of the boundary and weak forcing supporting the potential. These solutions remain the outlier though with most guidance suggesting the limited moisture return will not be enough to overcome lingering dry air. The forecast remains completely dry for the time being until guidance becomes better aligned. Once the front eventually moves through, a cooler trend towards seasonal temperatures can be expected.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 123 PM EDT Tue Oct 20 2026

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR vis in fog possible late tonight into Wednesday morning

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period as surface high pressure remains in control. MVFR vis cannot be ruled out late tonight into Wednesday morning at the outlying TAF sites from patchy fog. Confidence is too low at this time to include the potential for fog. Generally light/variable winds are expected through the period. Expect mostly E/ESE flow through tonight when winds are not variable.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.