textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and less humid today, with highs in the lower 80s.

- Showers and thunderstorms likely late Saturday, with severe weather possible over southwestern central Indiana.

- Much cooler temperatures for the first half of next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1010 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Forecast evolving as expected this morning as small area of surface high pressure builds east from central CONUS into Midwest/OH through the day...providing downward trend in humidity amid west-northwest breezes under clearing skies. A few gusts up to 15-20 mph today, mainly north/east of Indianapolis. A pleasant early summer day with dewpoints falling into the 55-60 degree range and peak temperatures in the low 80s across central Indiana.

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 314 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Thunderstorms persist across the southern half of our CWA as what remains of an earlier severe MCS pushes southward. This activity should come to an end within the next few hours. Severe weather is no longer expected.

Low amplitude upper-level troughing moves into the Great Lakes region today. Northwesterly flow at the surface within a post- frontal environment should lead to a noticeable air mass change. Combined with surface high pressure arriving, expect clearing skies, cooler temperatures, and lower humidity today.

Surface high pressure exits eastward on Saturday with southerly low- level flow returning. Simultaneously, a vort max racing eastward within a zonal jet stream arrives late Saturday. This feature likely triggers shower and thunderstorms upstream, mainly over Illinois.

A limiting factor for eastward progression is the aforementioned surface high pressure. The surface high exits early Saturday, and there simply may not be enough time to advect moisture/instability northward into Indiana. Guidance currently depicts sufficient moisture return over Illinois extending to the IN/IL state line from Terre Haute southward. Should upstream convection develop, it could consolidate into a southeast-propagating line that follows the moisture/instability gradient. This favors the western and southwestern portions of our CWA.

In terms of severe weather potential, instability is the limiting factor over Indiana. Model soundings show relatively long hodographs with mean shear vectors pointing southeastward. Assuming greater instability is realized, initial development may be capable of producing large hail. As storms consolidate along developing cold pools, they should propagate southeastward in line with the shear vector and along the instability gradient. Damaging wind gusts would become the primary hazard after this occurs. The best chance of any of this happening is across Illinois, where available instability is less in doubt. Across Indiana, again, our southwestern counties have the best chance of severe weather late Saturday into Saturday night.

Further north, showers and a few thunderstorms still likely even with the lower severe potential. Chance to likely PoPs will be included for most of central Indiana.

Broad upper-level troughing persists through the weekend and into next week. Weak surface high pressure returns with quiet weather and cooler-than-normal temperatures through mid next week. Another wave embedded within the broader trough may swing through mid week with another chance of shower/storms, but it's too far out to pin point exact timing.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 646 AM EDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Impacts:

- Lingering MVFR ceilings possible early this morning.

Discussion:

Lingering low cloud cover remains after last night's thunderstorms. Ceilings between 1000 to 2000 feet have been observed, with a brief period IFR conditions at BMG. These low ceilings may persist for a few hours early this morning, especially near BMG. VFR conditions return later this morning.

Northwesterly winds increase slightly today to between 10-15 knots. Winds should diminish substantially this evening as surface high pressure builds in. Calm to light and variable conditions are expected tonight. Winds become southeasterly on Saturday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.