textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and storms at times today

- Locally heavy rainfall possible today

- Above normal temperatures expected through Thursday.

- Mainly dry weather expected from Thursday onward.

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)

Issued at 302 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Today through tonight...

Current KIND radar imagery depicts a broken line of showers and a few storms lifting north across far south-central IN. This convection is associated with a weak disturbance which will continue gradually lifting north before stalling towards daybreak. Modest forcing from the disturbance combined with anomalous moisture supports increasing rain chances through the morning. Uncertainty remains on whether or not far NW counties will see measurable rainfall as some dry air remains in place evident by dewpoints still around the mid-upper 50s. Gradual moisture advection should allow for top-down saturation with time though.

A brief lull or period of lower convective coverage is possible towards mid morning depending on cold pool development and convective overturning. Daytime heating atop the anomalously moist airmass will likely then lead to additional convective development this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected due to relatively weak deep-layer shear, but small hail cannot be ruled out as latest CAMs suggest moderate destabilization occurring by the afternoon. A deep warm cloud layer should limit the threat though while also promoting efficient rainfall rates. Slow moving storms along with the potential for brief training may result in locally heavy rainfall.

A shortwave moving in from the northwest late today will help to finally push the disturbance out of the area late today. Look for rain chances to quickly diminish during the late afternoon and evening hours as drier air filters in. Expect another warm-humid day in the upper 70s to low 80s. Slightly drier air filtering in and clearing skies should then allow for temperatures to fall into the upper 50s to low 60s overnight.

Thursday through early next week...

Long range guidance continues to depict an Omega Block pattern developing aloft with ridging centered over the central CONUS and central portions of Canada. Meanwhile, surface high pressure builds into the region from the north. This will promote dry weather conditions late this week through early next week. Expect another warm day Thursday in the low 80s with highs then holding nearly steady in the mid to upper 70s through early next week.

A few models have hinted at the ridge retrograding slightly, allowing for a shortwave to move in aloft early next week. These solutions are outliers, but this will continue to be monitored as this could impact temperatures. Precipitation still appears very unlikely during the period.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 138 AM EDT Wed May 27 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings advancing northward this morning, and IFR/worse possible at KHUF/KBMG 10Z to mid morning Wednesday

- Increasing coverage of showers after 07-08Z with the potential for thunderstorms through this morning, additional storms possible during the afternoon

- MVFR visibilities possible at times for all TAF sites, except KLAF

Discussion:

MVFR ceilings already at KBMG, will slowly advance northward over the next few hours. A weak disturbance lifting north early this morning will lead to increasing coverage of showers and storms for most sites. Confidence in precipitation is low at KLAF.

Between convection, associated low stratus will likely fall to IFR at KBMG/KHUF, and possibly at KIND, after 07-08Z. KLAF should remain VFR. MVFR elsewhere to scatter out Wednesday afternoon. Periods of LIFR ceilings cannot be ruled out near KBMG/KHUF.

Brief MVFR or worse visibilities are possible in heavier showers or storms. Additional showers or storms are possible during the afternoon hours before then tapering off between 20-23Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.