textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Single digit lows again tonight

- Clipper system may bring light snow north and east of Indianapolis Thursday afternoon through Friday morning

- Dry for the weekend, warming trend into early next week

SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday Night)

Issued at 1254 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Rest of Today Through Thursday Night.

The primary forecast challenges in the short term centers on tracking of a persistent low-level stratus deck and the arrival of a clipper system late Thursday. Current satellite imagery and surface observations reveal a stubborn blanket of stratus trapped beneath a subsidence inversion near 850mb. Any residual flurries across the area should come to an end as this inversion sharpens. While some localized mixing may lead to transient breaks in the overcast this afternoon, model soundings indicate that low-level moisture remains trapped below the freezing level. This suggests that the overcast will likely lower and fill back in tonight. Radiational cooling will be hampered by the cloud cover, but with the cold air mass already in place, overnight lows are still expected to dip into the single digits to lower teens. By Thursday afternoon, a fast-moving clipper system will dive southeast from the Canadian Prairies toward the Ohio Valley.

The thermal profile shows a classic clipper signature, limited moisture but high efficiency due to the presence of a saturated DGZ. Best forcing will be across the northeastern counties where most models are honing in on a solution of around a half inch of light fluffy snow with higher amounts northeast of the forecast area. An alternate scenario to monitor involves the warm nose identified in some of the latest NAM soundings; if the DGZ remains dry while lower levels saturate, we could see a transition to freezing drizzle rather than snow. Current confidence favors snow as the primary precipitation type with the freezing drizzle a low-end outlier.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 1254 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Friday Through Sunday.

The long-term period will be defined by a pattern shift as the deep eastern US trough finally begins to relax. Friday starts on a chilly note with the potential for additional snow in the morning. Any snow looks to exit by late morning with dry weather expected from the afternoon onwards. Surface highs may climb into the upper 30s or low 40s, providing a brief respite from the sub-freezing conditions. However, this warmup will be brief as the aforementioned cold front sweeps through Friday afternoon with another shot of Arctic air settling in for Saturday, dropping highs back into the 20s. Dry and quiet weather is expected for the second half of the weekend with seasonable conditions.

Monday Through Wednesday.

Confidence is steadily growing in a more significant pattern change for early next week. Ensemble guidance from the GEFS and EPS shows the ridge axis over the Western US breaking down and shifting toward the East Coast. This transition will place central Indiana in a southwesterly flow regime, opening the door for a much milder air mass. By Tuesday and Wednesday, high temperatures in the 50s are possible, representing a 20 to 30-degree swing from recent values.

Regarding precipitation later next week, there is a large amount of ensemble spread concerning a potential storm system by Wednesday. One scenario depicts a deepening trough over the Rockies ejecting a surface low into the Great Lakes, which would bring widespread rain and breezy conditions. An alternate, drier scenario keeps the strongest forcing to our west, leaving Indiana under a warm, dry ridge. Given these discrepancies, have opted for broad low-end PoPs to account for the timing uncertainty.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 638 PM EST Wed Feb 4 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR VIS/CIG possible 06Z-15Z at mainly KIND/KLAF - Winds after 15Z from mainly 190-220 degrees, sustained 7-10KT in PM Discussion:

At times VFR conditions are expected near central Indiana terminals into Thursday evening...with high-MVFR ceilings also possible this evening...before more-organized MVFR VIS/CIG is possible within 06Z- 15Z at mainly KIND/KLAF from BR/stratus. Brief IFR is also possible overnight tonight but confidence too low to include in any TAF.

Overall northwest flow through TAF period will include deeper H500 trough departing Midwest this evening, modest stacked ridging crossing region into Thursday morning...and next embedded short wave plunging across Indiana after 18Z, with flurries and possible -SHSN for KIND/ KLAF.

Northerly winds to diminish this evening, becoming light/variable by 06Z. Surface flow will resume Thursday from the southwest by 15Z, becoming sustained at 7-10KT after 17...except under 7KT at KBMG... and gusts around 15KT at KLAF through the afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.