textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and windy today with much warmer air returning

- Chances for rain and storms returns for much of the upcoming week with a risk for severe weather focused late Tuesday into Wednesday

- Warm temperatures expected all next week with multiple days in the lower to mid 80s

DISCUSSION (Today through Saturday)

Issued at 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Mid and high level clouds drifted across the region this morning with upper level ridging present. Temperatures were in the 50s at 06Z.

A warm front will lift across the region this morning then become quasi-stationary from the central Plains into the upper Midwest as multiple surface waves track along the boundary. A warmer and progressively humid airmass will advect into areas south of the front for much of the upcoming week. Periodic opportunities for convection will exist all week especially by Tuesday night and Wednesday as the front drifts south closer to central Indiana. The front will finally move through the Ohio Valley next weekend bringing cooler temperatures.

Today through Monday Night

High pressure has moved into New England early this morning but remains close enough to the region to maintain its influence. Not expecting any light rain accompanying the warm front as it lifts north this morning with limited low level moisture and forcing aloft. A tightening surface pressure gradient and dry adiabatic flow developing up to near 750mb as the day progresses strongly supports a windy afternoon for the forecast area with gusts in excess of 30 mph at times. Highest wind gusts are likely to be concentrated in the northern Wabash Valley in closer proximity to the stronger low level flow. The combination of the well mixed boundary layer and the gusty southwest winds will enable temperatures to surge into the lower 80s this afternoon. RH values may slip into the 30-40% range across the southeast half of the forecast area for a few hours this afternoon which could lead to a subtle uptick in fire danger.

Clouds will thicken from the west late day into the evening ahead of an approaching upper level wave moving out of the Missouri Valley. Scattered showers will move into the Wabash Valley as early as near or just after sunset and expand east...but model soundings continue to highlight dry air lingering within the boundary layer into the early overnight. An expansion in shower coverage will likely hold off until an increase in isentropic lift courtesy of an 50-60kt 850mb jet arrives around 06Z and after. Will focus greater rain chances in the second half of the overnight. An isolated thunder risk remains bout the overall thermodynamic profiles late tonight are not particularly conducive for stronger convection through early Monday.

Deeper moisture associated with the upper level wave will shift east of the area shortly after daybreak Monday but an increasingly unstable airmass aided by diurnal heating will maintain a risk for scattered convection into the afternoon prior to ridging aloft reestablishing by Monday evening. Highs will rise in the upper 70s and lower 80s on Monday with a noticeable uptick in humidity.

Tuesday through Saturday

An amplified upper level pattern highlighted by a western trough and an eastern ridge will set up a favorable southwest flow regime into the region with convective risks persisting through much of the rest of the week.

Potential for strong to severe storms continue to focus across the forecast area late Tuesday and especially Wednesday as a sharper upper wave tracks into the upper Midwest and the frontal boundary drifts south closer to central indiana. Given the forecast thermodynamic profiles and available instability...all modes of severe weather would be in play across central Indiana during this timeframe. Locally heavy rainfall would also be a concern. The front will drift south but likely linger in the Ohio Valley into next weekend before finally clearing the region as a strong upper level low tracks across southern Canada and forces the ridge axis east into the western Atlantic. Signs are pointing towards another risk for severe weather Saturday and Saturday night as a cold front sweeps across the Ohio Valley. Temperatures from the upper 70s to mid 80s will be common this week with the potential to approach record highs on Tuesday. Cooler weather will arrive in wake of the frontal passage next weekend and may last into early the following week.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1248 AM EDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts at 25 to 30kts this afternoon - Low level wind shear developing this evening - Scattered showers developing this evening into the overnight

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Ridging aloft remains across the Ohio Valley early this morning and will linger for much of the day. A warm front will lift north this morning with winds veering to southwest prior to midday and becoming gusty for the afternoon and evening. Peak gusts this afternoon will approach 30kts at times.

Mid and high clouds will drift across the area throughout the day before thickening and lowering tonight in advance of an upper level wave that will move across the area. Scattered showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will impact the terminals tonight as a low level jet moves into the region. With winds near 50kts at 3kft agl...low level wind shear will develop for several hours beginning during the evening.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.