textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather continues through this weekend... seasonably cool early mornings, above normal afternoon highs

- Dry pattern will include non-zero chances for showers next Tuesday- Wednesday

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 310 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Broad and stacked high pressure will be the rule over much of the central and eastern CONUS through this weekend as an amplified H500 ridge builds north over much of North America...before flattening under zonal northern flow, to the Midwest and points south by early next week. Upper ridge axis mainly west/near IN and corresponding large surface high slowly twisting its center from Great Lakes to Mid-Atlantic...will keep skies mainly clear, winds light while veering from northeast today to southerly by Sunday, humidity seasonably low, and temperatures slightly above normal ranging from 40s to low 70s over most locations. Patchy pre-dawn/early morning fog will pose a potential impact for morning commuters.

Lower confidence in last third of forecast period given model inconsistency in handling disorganized upstream short waves across northern CONUS/southern Canada. That said, a potent system this weekend spinning into Hudson Bay will likely be followed by cooler air mass, directly by overall zonal flow into Ontario/northern Great Lakes. Question will be position and strength of disturbance possibly tracking to its south...probably across Midwest into the mid-week. Higher certainty in considerable cloudiness, lower confidence in any organized rain with forcing still retracted north...and perhaps a continuation of above normal afternoon highs nearing 70F to end the period.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 100 AM EDT Thu Oct 22 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR/worse visibility in FG possible outside of KIND, mainly 08Z-13Z this morning

Discussion:

Trend for greater coverage of patchy fog will continue late tonight into early Thursday...especially at KBMG/KHUF, with lower chances of MVFR/brief IFR at KLAF.

Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period near central Indiana terminals...as surface high pressure over Midwest and to the northeast strengthens under mid-level ridge building east from Plains. Mainly clear skies may contain brief cirrus spinning around the approaching ridge aloft.

Light/variable to calm winds through 15Z Thursday will finally yield to a light northeasterly breeze during the afternoon that will likely reach 7KT at KIND and generally lower speeds at other terminals. Light winds return for Thursday night.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.