textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and mild through early Wednesday afternoon

- Showers with embedded thunderstorms late Wednesday into Wednesday evening

- Scattered to numerous showers with much colder air late week. A few snowflakes possible as well Friday morning

- Dry weather returns this weekend into next week with a slow warming trend

DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)

Issued at 236 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Dry and mild weather will continue through the first part of Wednesday. Low pressure will track quickly across the Ohio Valley late Wednesday with showers and a few thunderstorms accompanying a cold front. In its wake...a cold continental airmass will spill into the region as a deep upper level trough expands across the eastern half of the country. Chilly temperatures are expected with the chance for scattered light precipitation Thursday and Friday. As the upper trough moves away to the east over the weekend...dry and seasonable weather will return.

Today through Wednesday Night

Quiet conditions continue this morning with clear skies under broad high pressure. 07Z temperatures were generally in the 40s with light southwest winds.

A weak frontal boundary currently across the Great Lakes will move south across the forecast area later today but will have little to no impact on sensible weather. Little moisture is present along the boundary with a shift to W/NW winds serving as the only signal of its passage from mid morning into the early afternoon. The front also will not take away from what will be another superb mid Fall day with temperatures well into the 60s. Skies will remain clear initially this evening but mid and high level clouds will increase predawn Wednesday as a compact low pressure system moves into the upper Mississippi Valley. Even despite the increase in higher clouds...light and variable winds tonight will present a greater potential for areas of fog to develop with the greatest risk likely to exist over our northeast counties.

Southerly flow will increase quickly on Wednesday as a sharp wave aloft associated with the surface wave approaches from the northwest. A narrow axis of subtly higher dewpoints will be drawn poleward along the attendant cold front and will approach the Wabash Valley by mid to late afternoon. Surface heating will promote weak instability with MLCAPEs rising to around 500 j/kg which should promote a gradually increasing but broken line of convection by late day that will shift across the area into the evening. The best instability will remain closer to the Ohio River extending north into far southern portions of the forecast area. Cannot rule out isolated stronger wind gusts with a few cells in these areas considering modest BL shear values peaking near 50kts...but poor lapse rates will serve as an overall limiting factor. Showers will shift to the east Wednesday night with the front...followed by noticeably colder air in the post frontal airmass as cold advection commences in concert with gusty northwest winds.

Temps...despite the passage of the weak front today...low level thermals support highs warming into the mid 60s and across southern parts of the forecast temps rising potentially into the upper 60s. Wednesday will remain mild ahead of the approaching surface low and cold front...with low to mid 60s anticipated.

Thursday through Friday Night

The coldest air of the Fall so far arrives for the latter part of the week as the upper trough amplifies and settles over the eastern part of the country. A sharp shortwave will pivot around the flank of the parent trough on Thursday and interact with strong cold advection and steepening mid level lapse rates to generate scattered to numerous light rain showers focused especially across the northeast half of the forecast area. The addition of brisk northwest winds and broad stratus will make for a raw and unpleasant day across the area with highs likely to hold in the 40s.

Subtle ridging Thursday evening will aid in decreasing shower coverage but yet another shortwave will pivot across the region Friday morning which will maintain at least a broken stratus deck with the potential for renewed light precipitation. A more pronounced northerly fetch off Lake Michigan early Friday supports the development of a more persistent north-south band of rain and snow that may be able to briefly make it as far south as the northern Wabash Valley Friday morning before low level flow backs and any lingering precipitation shifts east and decreases in response to a weakening NW-SE flow off the lake. Low clouds will slowly decrease from the west Friday night as the upper low swings into the eastern Great Lakes and drier air begins to advect in from the west. Low level thermals on Friday suggest 45 degrees is probably the upper limit for a high and there is potential for much of the northeast half of the forecast area to not make it out of the lower 40s. This will set the stage for the coldest night of the Fall so far Friday night with a hard freeze for the entire area as lows fall into the mid 20s.

Saturday through Early Next Week

The upper low will shift east into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday with an overall transition to broad ridging aloft that will persist well into next week. Other than the potential for lingering scattered diurnal cu on Saturday as the upper low moves away... expect a return to mainly clear skies that will likely extend into the middle of next week as strong high pressure settles over the region. The onset of warm advection will usher in a slow warming trend with highs rising from the mid and upper 40s on Saturday back into the mid and upper 50s by next Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 510 AM EST Tue Nov 10 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Quiet weather will continue through the period with only a windshift to W/NW from late morning into the early afternoon as a weak front passes through the region. Mainly clear skies will continue through this evening with winds becoming light and variable. High clouds will increase late tonight with the potential for patchy fog towards daybreak Wednesday. Confidence is not high enough to include any visibility restrictions at the terminals at this time.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.