textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect for much of Central Indiana through 9AM Tuesday

- Bitterly cold temperatures and gusty W/NW winds will produce wind chills as low as -15 at times today and tonight

- Cold snap likely this weekend with the potential for sub-zero temperatures

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows deep low pressure over Ontario and the Great Lakes. This was providing cyclonic lower level flow across Indiana amid a moderate pressure gradient. A cold front within the cyclonic flow was found over eastern Illinois, poised to push into Central Indiana overnight High pressure was found across the northern plains states, spilling south across the plains. GOES19 shows plentiful cloud cover across Indiana, IL and WI. Radar shows a few lingering light snow showers or flurries across Indiana ahead of the front, exiting quickly east. Temperatures were quite cold with values mainly in the teens and low 20s.

Today...

Models show the upper pattern remaining quite cyclonic today and tonight as it remains rather unchanged from the past few days. Strong ridging remains in place aloft over the western CONUS while a deep upper low was providing broad cyclonic circulation across much United States east of the Rockies. This flow is expected to remain in place today and tonight, keeping a cool northwest flow of polar air streaming across Indiana. Within the lower levels, the surface low over Ontario is expected to pull farther northeast through the day as the high pressure system over the plains begins to build across Indiana and the Ohio valley. Strong surface ridging is shown to arrive across the Ohio river by this evening. Forecast soundings respond to this showing lower level saturation across the area through the morning hours, but improves as the day progresses showing subsidence and drying, which should lead to clearing skies. Thus after a cloudy morning, some sunshine will be expected this afternoon.

Cold air advection remains in place today in the wake of the passed cold front. 850mb temps are suggested to fall to near -20C, translating to temperatures lingering around 10 for much of the day. High temperatures in the 20s have already been reached for the calendar day. Thus expect steady or slowly falling temperatures through the day. Wind gusts across the area will result wind chill values around -15F this morning improving to around 0F this afternoon as winds diminish. Cold weather advisory remains a go.

Tonight...

Quiet and cold weather is expected tonight as the upper pattern remains unchanged with little in the forcing dynamics passing. Within the lower levels strong high pressure stretching from the Dakotas to Texas and the Ohio valley will keep control of our weather providing clear skies. The cold air mass will remain across our area with lighter winds allowing for better radiational cooling conditions. This will allow for single digit lows tonight.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 247 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Tuesday Through Thursday.

Surface flow will gradually become more southwesterly and weaker Tuesday as the upper level system exits to the northeast. This will help to bring somewhat warmer temperatures into Wednesday, but overall only expect an 8-10 hour window late Wednesday morning into the afternoon where temperatures will climb above freezing. A clipper system will interact with the strengthening southerly flow during the daytime hours on Wednesday which could bring precipitation to portions of central Indiana but there remains quite a bit of model spread on the timing of the clipper and how much moisture is available across central Indiana by the time the better forcing arrives.

With temperatures near freezing, precipitation type also remains uncertain with the potential for both rain and snow. Another blast of colder air moves in Wednesday night into Thursday in the aftermath of the system but the magnitude of the colder air doesn't look quite as robust as what is expected for the early this week.

Friday Through Early Next Week.

A much stronger blast of cold air looks likely Friday into the weekend as arctic air slinks southeastward in the aftermath of the exiting system and a 1050mb high builds over the Upper Midwest. Confidence is high in much colder than normal temperatures for the weekend with the potential for overnight lows at or below normal, especially over portions of north central Indiana. With models trending towards a stronger high pressure, this increases confidence in keeping the subtropical jet well south of the Ohio River and keeping conditions dry vs how things looked a few days ago when a major winter storm was being predicted across the Ohio Valley.

The high will gradually begin to break down Sunday into early next week, but the pattern continues to favor below normal temperatures for much of next week with signs of another intrusion of cold air Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 532 AM EST Mon Jan 19 2026

Impacts:

- Wind gusts to 30kts possible through 21Z

Discussion:

Snow has come to an end across the terminals with skies quickly clearing. VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period outside of a low chance for MVFR cigs this morning in pockets of residual low clouds. Westerly winds will continue to gust as high as 30kts through the morning with gusts gradually becoming less frequent through 00Z. Any gusts should then come to an end tonight with winds of 8-12kts tonight through much of tomorrow.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST Tuesday for INZ021-028>031- 035>049-051>057.

Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for INZ060- 061-067.