textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers possible through this evening.

- Cool conditions this weekend with below freezing low temps in the 20s. Highs generally in the 40s to near 50.

- Dry weather returns this weekend through much of next week

- Warming trend begins mid next week.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 932 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Made only minor adjustments to the going forecast this evening. Cloud cover has held up diurnal cooling, and dewpoints continue to linger in the low to mid 30s. Some breaks in the clouds will occur late, and lower dewpoints will slowly make their way into the area, but widespread upper 20s appeared just slightly too cool for tonight, and bumped lows up a couple of degrees in most areas.

Some lake effect precip has managed to nudge into the area at times this evening, but nothing measurable and certainly nothing impactful. Minor adjustments were made to PoPs but prior expectations of dry conditions for most of the area remain valid.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)

Issued at 250 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Deep troughing remains over the Great Lakes with broad cyclonic flow and cold temperatures aloft. Widespread stratocumulus persists as broad lift within the cyclonic wind field works with abundant low- level moisture. Showers can still be found over portions of southern Indiana, but these are becoming less widespread as the afternoon goes on. The best forcing is beginning to depart to the east, so shower activity looks to remain very isolated through tonight.

Breaks in the stratocumulus have begun appearing due to drier air working in from the north as well as the parent trough beginning to depart east. Continued, but gradual, clearing is anticipated tonight. Fetch remains off of Lake Michigan so a band of enhanced cloud cover may persist well into the night and perhaps into the day tomorrow. This band of clouds should gradually shift eastward with time as winds become more west-northwestly.

Surface high pressure begins building into the region tomorrow. Northwesterly surface winds continue, however, so stratocumulus from Lake Michigan may linger as mentioned above. For the most part, the bulk of our CWA will see clearing skies and decreasing winds. Temperatures are expected to remain on the cool side with troughing aloft. The biggest difference will come during the overnights as radiational cooling potential is maximized. Lows each morning through Sunday morning may dip well into the 20s, especially in rural areas. The biggest caveat is the residual cloud cover, which could insulate the boundary layer and keep lows near 30.

Fog chances increase through this weekend as clearing skies become more common. Lingering boundary layer moisture combined with an increasingly subsident atmosphere should allow for the possibility of patchy fog at times. However, lingering cloud cover remains a mitigating factor at least through Saturday night.

Similar radiational cooling conditions exists into next week, just with even less cloud cover. Lows in the 20s are likely Monday night and Tuesday night. Despite the cool starts, each day looks to be a bit warmer as ridging builds in aloft. High temps rise into the 50s by Monday and potentially into the 60s by Wednesday. A weak system passing to our north Thursday may lead to a brief bout of warm air advection, pushing temperatures close to 70 by the end of the week. Guidance is having a difficult time handling that system, however, so the magnitude of late week warming remains in question. Nevertheless, all indications point towards a warming trend next week.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 602 PM EST Fri Nov 13 2026

Impacts:

- Isolated showers possible near KLAF this evening

Discussion:

Lake enhanced VFR clouds are likely to linger at KLAF and KIND through much of the period. KIND may go scattered at times, but for simplicity, kept a VFR ceiling through the period. Brief MVFR remains a possibility, especially at KLAF. Odds of this and any isolated showers near KLAF are not high enough to include in the TAFs.

At KHUF/KBMG, coverage of clouds should decrease allowing scattered conditions.

Some guidance is showing fog developing in some areas where clouds break up overnight. Feel that, while this cannot be ruled out, odds are too low to mention.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.