textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and seasonable through Tuesday

- Showers and a few t-storms late Tuesday and Tuesday night, especially north

- Much warmer by next weekend with highs in the 80s

DISCUSSION (This Evening through Sunday)

Issued at 202 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

A strong upper level low near James Bay will maintain a general longwave trough across much of the eastern half of the country into Monday. Ridging aloft will briefly replace the departing trough prior to another upper low diving into the eastern Great Lakes by midweek keeping temperature primarily near to slightly below normal. Modification of the upper level flow with more substantial ridging will bring much warmer air into the Ohio Valley by next weekend.

Tonight through Wednesday

Beautiful afternoon in progress as high pressure has built into the region from the north. Skies were mostly sunny with the bulk of the mid and high clouds associated with the boundary from earlier this morning now just south of the forecast area. 18Z temperatures were in the mid and upper 60s.

Quiet weather is expected into Tuesday as the aforementioned high drifts southeast across the Ohio Valley. A cold front will move into the region from the northwest late Tuesday in wake of the departure of the high. This will bring rain and embedded thunderstorms through the forecast area Tuesday night before dry and seasonably cool conditions for midweek.

Mid and high level cloud debris from convection over the southern Plains may drift back across southern portions of the forecast area later this afternoon and evening otherwise the presence of drier air and broader subsidence will maintain largely clear skies into tonight. A weak boundary will slide south through the region overnight into early Monday but in the absence of substantial moisture...anticipate only a brief and subtle increase in mid level clouds Monday morning with northwesterly flow resuming.

The presence of light flow as the center of the high passes through early Tuesday could enable an isolated frost risk focused across d shorter nightsfar northeast portions of the forecast area but most locations should remain at or above 40. Return southwesterly flow on the back side of the departing high will advect warmer air into the region for Tuesday with winds increasing courtesy of a tightening pressure gradient ahead of the approaching cold front.

Convection will accompany the aforementioned front as it tracks into the area Tuesday evening...but the lack of substantial moisture return ahead of the boundary will limit overall convective coverage and intensity across the forecast area. The presence of a decent upper wave in tandem with a 40kt 850mb jet however will likely be sufficient to maintain rain and embedded thunder into early Wednesday. Rainfall amounts into Wednesday morning should be generally at a quarter to half inch or less. High pressure will reestablish Wednesday with temps a shade cooler than Tuesday as cyclonic flow aloft establishes in the post-frontal airmass with a new upper low developing to our north.

Highs Monday and Wednesday will be similar to readings this afternoon ranging from the mid 60s to lower 70s. Compressional heating and southwesterly flow ahead of the cold front Tuesday will enable temperatures warming into the mid and upper 70s during the afternoon.

Wednesday Night through Next Weekend

High pressure will shift east across the area Thursday with the upper low moving away to the east and being replaced by broad ridging aloft. Thursday morning will be chilly but temps and winds should remain up enough to mitigate much if any frost concerns over the northeast part of the forecast area. A warm front will lift across the region late in the week with a transition to much warmer air for next weekend. High confidence in highs into the lower and mid 80s by Saturday and Sunday which would be the warmest daytime temps for the forecast area in over 3 weeks. Despite the presence of a mid level cap developing...cannot rule out isolated to widely scattered diurnally driven convection at times Friday through Sunday with elevated instability in an increasingly warm and moist airmass.

Beyond next weekend...there appears to be the potential for one more stretch of seasonably cooler temperatures in the 60s and lower 70s for a few days behind a cold frontal passage on the 17th or 18th. The pattern may become briefly active prior to Memorial Day weekend as well with a broad southwest flow aloft developing across the region. As we near the holiday weekend and beyond into late month however...the upper level flow regime is supportive of warm and progressively drier weather for the Ohio Valley with a likely return to multiple days with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 700 PM EDT Sun May 10 2026

Impacts:

- Gusty winds up to 20 kts Monday afternoon

Discussion:

Surface high pressure axis centered from the Mid MO valley to the southern Great Lakes will shift southward across central Indiana overnight with N-NW winds 5-10 kts becoming light and variable. Skies will be BKN through late tonight with mid-high level cirrus/altostratus cloud layers. Despite the light/variable winds, sufficiently dry airmass and the increasing cloud cover will preclude any vsby reductions late tonight.

By tomorrow morning surface winds will become westerly while gradually increasing as the surface ridge axis shifts south. A reinforcing high pressure area, amplified by the cold waters of Lake Michigan will push southward across the western Great Lakes. This will induce a stronger pressure gradient southward into central Indiana during the mid-late afternoon. In addition, forecast soundings show steep low level lapse rates up to around 6kft with sufficient moisture to generate a broken cumulus cloud field developing during the afternoon. Therefore, have added BKN wording to the ceilings for a period during peak heating as well as wind gusts to 18 kts from the NW until around 00Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.