textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild Saturday with highs in upper 40s to low 60s. Isolated rain showers are possible this evening into tonight.

- Snow possible Sunday Night, possibly transitioning to rain Monday morning. Light snow accumulations could impact Monday morning travel.

- A warming trend, with a more active pattern including potential for heavy rainfall is expected mid-late next week.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

A deep low pressure system has undergone occlusion over the northern portions of Quebec over the last 12 hours, with a displaced cold front becoming quasi-stationary along the southern portions of the Great Lakes region. This will slowly move south as mean flow out of the NW continues to create weak CAA from the northern Plains. This boundary has vertical tilt to the south, creating variable weather conditions across central Indiana.

Over southern portions of the area, the airmass will remain mostly unchanged with temperatures surging back into the 60s this afternoon. Central portions of the area will be slightly cooler with the baroclinic zone impinging on the area and mid level cloud cover continuing on the upper portions of the frontal boundary. That leaves the northern tier of central Indiana where the surface front will reach by midday, keeping temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s.

Winds will become out of the ENE along and north of the front, sustained around 7-10 MPH. South of the front, counteracting convergent tendencies with a weak pressure gradient north of a building surface high will likely keep winds light but variable throughout the day.

As dusk nears later tonight, weak low level cyclogenesis along the aforementioned boundary will likely lead to modest pressure depletion and rising motion of the region, with isolated to scattered showers possible after 23Z. CAMs are hinting at slightly stronger pressure depletion this evening, of which may increase shower coverage some, but overall QPF amounts should remain less that 0.1" for all areas.

LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 328 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

An active pattern is expected to set up throughout the long term bringing a warming trend and numerous chances for precipitation.

To start off, upper troughing will be exiting the area, turning more quasi-linear into the start of the new week. A baroclinic zone should set up near the forecast area, likely just to the south, potentially bringing the chance for accumulating snow Sunday night into Monday. Models have continued to trend the snow further south and with lowered amounts while surface high pressure seems to have more of an influence across central Indiana. At this time near an inch of snow is possible across our south and a trace, if anything, in the north. Depending on how quickly snow transitions to rain Monday morning, snow may impact morning traffic.

Flow will turn more southwesterly to southerly the remainder of the week as amplified troughing gradually sets up in the west. This will lead to ample WAA and moisture advection to the region. Temperatures will warm into the 60s for the latter part of the week. The signal for significant rainfall continues to be maintained in the models as multiple systems could move through. This threat has prompted a Marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall for Tuesday and Wednesday. Exact details on timing, evolution, and or location of the heaviest rainfall remains uncertain this far out. Look for rain chances to remain elevated throughout this period despite the uncertainties. Should such a scenario play out then river flooding may become possible late next week onward.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 642 AM EST Sat Feb 28 2026

Impacts:

-Isolated to scattered showers this evening

Discussion:

Scattered cirrus decks and light ENE winds below 10kt are expected for a majority of the day. Beginning around 23Z isolated to scattered light showers will push into central Indiana with BKN ceilings around 6kft. A brief drop into MVFR ceilings is possible, but unlikely within these rain showers.

These SCT to BKN 6kft will continue into tomorrow until an OVC stratus deck around 4kft arrives tomorrow afternoon. Winds will gradually shift after the shower passage tonight becoming predominately out of the north by 07-09Z.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.