textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain ending this morning. Much cooler Today and Saturday.

- Warmer temperatures arrive for Sunday, Monday and Tuesday.

- Next best chances for showers and thunderstorms will be Tuesday Night into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows a cold front across southern Ohio, southern Indiana and southern IL. High pressure was found over the northern plains and was emerging southeast into the upper midwest. Winds across central Indiana have become northeasterly in the wake of the front but remain rather gusty due to a moderate pressure gradient that remains in place. There was a wide array of temperatures across the state this morning, with mid 70s in pace near the Ohio river and mid 30s along the Michiana boarder. Looking aloft, water vapor shows weak ridging in place over the western CONUS while the lee side flow was mainly westerly and zonal across the northern plains into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. Radar across the areas shows post frontal, elevated showers and thunderstorms streaming across northern parts of Central Indiana sagging southward across Central Indiana.

Early this morning...showers and thunderstorms will continue to push southward across the forecast area and high pops will be used. HRRR shows the bulk of this precip out of the forecast area by 12Z. Thus pops will be limited to just the southern most tier of counties from 12Z-13Z.

The rest of today...The weak ridging aloft over the western CONUS is expected to strengthen somewhat today and the lee side response across the upper midwest is a more pronounced northwest flow along with subsidence. Forecast soundings today show subsidence within the column as strong cold air advection begins. HRRR wishes to keep lower clouds present through the day while others suggest a dry column with only high cloud streaming aloft. Given our strong cold air advection and the presence of a mid level inversion, we will expect mostly cloudy skies this morning with some improvement this afternoon. With clouds today and 850mb temps falling to -5C by late in the day temperatures this afternoon will linger in the low to middle 40s. Overall, highs for the calendar day have been already set, probably at 1201 AM.

Tonight through Sunday...The strengthening ridge over the western United States will allow for NW flow to persist through the weekend providing continued dry weather and lee side subsidence spilling from the upper midwest into the Ohio Valley. No forcing appears to pass within this flow. The coldest night will be tonight as lows fall below freezing amid clear skies and light winds.

On Saturday, the surface high will drift across the area and a mostly sunny and pleasant spring day is expected, with cool temperatures as surface winds will remain out of the southeast. By Sunday, southerly flow will return along with warm air advection as the surface high will have drifted east of Indiana. 850mb temps by Sunday are expected to return to around 5C, which should allow temperatures to return to the 60s with partly cloudy skies.

LONG TERM (Monday through Thursday)

Issued at 241 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Mainly zonal flow is expected aloft for much of the next work week, with a subtle short wave passing on Tuesday Night into Wednesday. Starting on Monday and Tuesday, Indiana will still be under the influence of the strong high pressure system that will be well east of Central Indiana at that point. The southerly return flow around the high will allow for strong warm air advection that will allow 850mb temps to rise to around 15C by Tuesday. This will allow for temperatures to once again return to the 70s on Monday and near 80 on Tuesday.

By Tuesday Night, Indiana will be solidly in the warm sector ahead of an approaching cold front associated with the previously mentioned upper wave. Again, as we have seen with recent systems, another round of showers and storms will be expected as this system passes on Tuesday night and Wednesday. In the wake of the front on Wednesday, the roller coaster temperature ride will continue as cold air advection returns sending temperatures back to the 50s for highs.

Looking at Thursday, there remains some uncertainty as strong high pressure remains overt the Great Lakes but the frontal boundary is suggested to linger across KY and TN as a weak area of low pressure passes. Depending upon how far south that frontal boundary gets, will likely determine our rain chances. For now, rain chances will be included, mainly south, but overall confidence on Thursday is low.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 639 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Impacts:

- Rain near BMG diminishing by 12-13Z today.

- IFR/MVFR ceilings expected this morning.

- VFR ceilings return this afternoon or early evening.

Discussion:

Rain has moved out of all the sites except BMG. Rain is expected to end at BMG by 12-13Z. IFR/MVFR ceilings are ongoing and forecast soundings suggest low clouds could remain trapped for much of the day. Some uncertainty remains on how quickly VFR conditions return, but it appears VFR ceilings are likely sometime during the afternoon or into the evening.

Sporadic wind gusts between 18-22 kt are possible today. These gusts were not included in the TAFs as they will be infrequent. N/NE winds will become more NW this afternoon into tonight.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.