textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Highs generally in the low to mid 60s are expected over the next few days before temperatures cool down significantly

- Increasing precipitation chances Wednesday afternoon into Thursday with the potential for lingering precipitation on Friday

DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)

Issued at 307 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Today through Tuesday night...

Quiet weather conditions are expected to persist as upper ridging and surface high pressure build eastward into the region. Current satellite and surface observations depict surface high pressure centered near the central CONUS with clear skies across Indiana. A very weak pressure gradient is contributing to light or even calm winds at times early this morning. These light winds combined with clear skies could allow for patchy fog to develop in climatologically favored locations towards daybreak. Any fog that develops should quickly mix out after sunrise.

Model guidance depicts a shortwave moving across the Great Lakes Region around Tuesday morning with an associated weak cold front pushing into central Indiana. No precipitation is expected from the approaching boundary due to gulf moisture remaining cutoff. The weak frontal boundary could cool temperatures slightly.

Return flow will moderate temperatures through Tuesday before the cold front arrives. Look for highs to generally range from the low to mid 60s with lows in the upper 30s to low 40s. Highs on Tuesday could end up being a few degrees cooler than currently forecasted depending on when the front arrives. A quicker FROPA Tuesday morning would likely limit daytime heating.

Wednesday through early next week...

A deepening shortwave trough moving in from the northwest on Wednesday is expected to promote surface cyclogenesis across the Midwest. Latest ensemble guidance depicts the surface low developing near Illinois and continuing to strengthen as it progresses eastward. Increasing dynamics from these features combined with sufficient gulf moisture surging northward supports increasing rain chances. Scattered to numerous showers are possible and weak destabilization late Wednesday may support a few thunderstorms.

The parent trough is expected to continue deepening across the eastern CONUS through late this week with strong cold air advection across central Indiana. Broad cyclonic flow, steepening lapse rates, and lingering low-level moisture will continue to promote the potential for showers on Thursday. Latest guidance continues to suggest precipitation will linger through Friday given a favorable fetch off of Lake Michigan. Isolated rain/snow showers are possible to end the work week, but QPF amounts are expected to be minimal due to very limited moisture and weak forcing.

The aforementioned low pressure system and parent trough will shift eastward over the weekend while an amplified upper ridge builds into the central CONUS. Warm air advection ahead of the upper ridge is expected to help moderate temperatures over the weekend into early next week. Drier conditions are also likely. Look for a roller coaster in temperatures from the middle of this week through early next week. Highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday will quickly cool down well into the 40s by Friday before then warming back up into the 50s on Sunday.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 623 AM EST Mon Nov 9 2026

Impacts:

- Patchy fog at KHUF/KBMG through 13Z today

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Winds will generally light out of a WNW direction through this morning before turning more SW this afternoon. Patchy ground fog will be possible at KHUF/KBMG through 13Z today. Additional patchy fog may develop late tonight into Tuesday morning, but confidence is too low for an explicit mention in the TAFs. Any ground fog will likely be very shallow and mix out quickly after sunrise. Skies will be mostly clear through the period with just a few passing cirrus clouds expected.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.