textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and very warm to hot conditions are anticipated for much of the work week

- Drying fuels and low RH values each afternoon today through Friday may lead to elevated fire threat, but light winds should limit overall concerns

- Next chance of rain and nearer to normal temperatures arrives this weekend

SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

An expanding surface ridge from the northeast in tandem with deep ridging aloft aiding in mainly clear skies early this morning. Light northeast winds continue to advect drier air southwest into the forecast area as well. 06Z temperatures ranged broadly form the upper 50s over northeast counties to the lower 70s in the lower Wabash Valley and over the Indy metro area.

The ridging at the surface and aloft will serve as the primary features influencing weather across the region today and tonight. Warm and dry conditions will continue in this late summer regime.

The influx of drier air from the northeast this morning should mitigate most fog prior to daybreak. Mid and high clouds remain displaced over the Mississippi ands Missouri Valleys west into the Plains with broad subsidence further east across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. There may be just enough leftover moisture within the boundary layer to generate a few cu for the afternoon otherwise expecting a sunny day. Easterly winds will continue to pump drier air into the region through the day with potential for RH values to drop as low as 25-30% during the afternoon...supporting an elevated fire risk with the antecedent dry conditions ongoing. Clear skies are expected overnight with the possibility for thin cirrus to drift into the Ohio Valley from the southeast towards daybreak Tuesday as an upper low moves into the Carolinas.

Temps...afternoon highs will be similar to readings from Sunday with max temps in the upper 80s to around 90 with the warmest air once again located across the lower Wabash Valley. Lows tonight will range from the upper 50s northeast to the mid 60s southwest.

LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

The long term period will start with a modified omega blocking pattern with an upper low across the eastern USA, another low near the Carolinas, and an upper ridge across central Indiana will persist. While this pattern will gradually break down through the work week, the warm, dry air in place will persist with highs in the mid 80s to near 90.

Although many areas saw at least some light rain Saturday, the expected conditions should still dry things out quickly and keep the fire weather threat higher than average.

The pattern looks to become more progressive Friday into next weekend, with an upper low moving into the area from the north- central Plains. A surface low pressure system will accompany it, bringing chances for along with gradually cooling temperatures. Unsurprisingly, models are starting to slow the arrival of the rain a bit since it has a tendency of breaking down ridges too fast. Thus, expect rain to arrive sometime this weekend and should see rain chances across numerous days from this weekend into the new week. Due to uncertainty, will keep with guidance for now. In terms of temperatures, highs will trend cooler and nearer to normal by the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1220 AM EDT Mon Sep 15 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period.

Ridging aloft and at the surface will maintain quiet weather for central Indiana through early Tuesday. Other than the possibility for very brief fog at KBMG over the next few hours...expect VFR conditions to continue. A few diurnal cu are expected this afternoon otherwise skies will be clear. E/SE winds at 5-10kts are anticipated this afternoon.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.