textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry conditions persist through Friday with daily highs reaching the mid to upper 70s on Thursday and the low 80s on Friday.

- Fire weather conditions will require monitoring as several afternoons will likely feature minimum RH values well down into the 30s if not lower at times

- Tropical moisture surging northward on Saturday will bring rainfall to central Indiana Saturday Night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 219 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a cool front stretching across lower Michigan to NW Indiana, Central Illinois and northern MO. GOES19 shows clear skies across the state and along the front. Dew points remained around 50. Aloft, northwest flow was in place, with only some passing Pacific moisture in place. No precipitation was found with the front.

Tonight...

Models suggest the cold front will sag southward across Indiana this evening, allowing the winds to shift to the northwest. No precipitation will be expected as this will be a dry front, and barely any clouds present. Thus look for mostly clear skies, with lows around 50.

Thursday and Friday... Aloft, persistent NW flow aloft on Thursday is expected to modify into a building ridge axis across Indiana and the Great Lakes on Friday. Both of these things will continue to result in subsidence across central Indiana. Meanwhile at the surface, strong Canadian high pressure will settle across Indiana from the northern plains before moving to the middle Atlantic states by Friday. This will result in continued dry weather with plenty of daytime sunshine and overall pleasant weather. Highs on Thursday should reach the upper 70s due to mild cold air advection. Warmer temperatures in the 80s will arrive on Friday as southerly flow returns due to the surface high to the east.

Saturday through Wednesday...

Wet weather will be expected to arrive on Saturday night as remnants from a tropical system are suggested to advance to and pass across Central Indiana through Sunday. Forecast soundings suggest pwats around 1.5 inches, plenty moist. Thus high pops will be used during this time. The pressure gradient at this time does not to be overly strong, so strong winds are not expected, but wind gusts around 25 mph cannot be ruled out.

Monday...

Hurricane remnants look to exit on Sunday night into Monday, allowing for dry weather to return to start the next work week. Forecast soundings trend to a dry air mass as surface ridging builds across the area from the deep south. Southwesterly lower level flow will remain in place, keeping temperatures above normal.

Tuesday...

A quick moving cold front is expected to pass across Indiana on Tuesday from the upper midwest. The day should begin within the warm sector, but by afternoon the front will have passed and winds will become northwesterly with strong cold air advection suggested. Forecast soundings show limited instability and fail to saturate the column. However given the strong change in airmass, at least some pops will need to be included for now. Dry weather will arrive by Tuesday night as Canadian high pressure builds across Indiana. The core of the cold air will be well to the northeast, 850mb temps will fall to around 8C, allowing for more seasonal temperatures on Wednesday.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1239 PM EDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Impacts:

- VFR conditions

Discussion:

Clear skies will continue to be present across the TAF sites during this period. Despite a moderate cold front expected to pass late this evening, forecast soundings remain dry. Thus only a wind shift to the northwest is expected with continued VFR conditions and unlimited cigs.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.