textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool and dry into the weekend

- Temperatures warming next week to well above normal

- Rain chances return late week with the potential for a stronger system Thursday into Friday

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 1001 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Only minor changes to the forecast this morning, mainly concerning cloud cover. We have some low stratus nudging in from the north this morning, roughly along and north of I-70. Ceilings are around 2000ft or so. High-resolution guidance shows these clouds drifting southward and gradually dissipating. Additionally, high cirrus is streaming in aloft a bit ahead of schedule. As such, we've bumped sky cover up through the day maintaining SCT/BKN skies.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 156 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Quiet and dry weather will continue throughout the short term period.

Northwest flow will continue aloft across central Indiana through tonight. A wave in the flow will remain well south of the area, but it will bring some cloudiness. Another wave will approach the area tonight and will also bring some cloudiness with it.

In the lower levels, high pressure will remain in control, but as is typical this time of year, some lower level moisture will linger even with the high pressure influence.

Satellite shows areas of stratocumulus across the area early this morning, with a larger area of clouds moving in from the north. Guidance is not doing well with these clouds and thus confidence in their input is low.

Believe that the initial patches of stratocumulus over the central and southern portions of the area will drift south through the early morning hours. Meanwhile, the larger area of clouds will slowly move south as well. Thus while some areas will clear out for a time, more clouds should return.

Some of the lower clouds will mix out during the day, but not all. Due to the aforementioned upper waves, mid and high clouds will be around as well through tonight.

The result will be partly to mostly cloudy skies through tonight. Variable cloudiness might be a better description.

Enough sunshine will be around to allow temperatures to peak in the upper 20s north to middle to upper 30s south today. There will be enough clouds around tonight to keep lows in the 20s for most areas.

LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)

Issued at 156 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

A quiet stretch of weather will continue this weekend into early next week as weak high pressure dominates the Great Lakes region. Synoptically, the west CONUS ridge, East Coast trough pattern will remain this weekend, but weak WAA down stream of the ridge will further enforce low level pressure gains keeping conditions dry. That said, the strong flow aloft will remain nearby likely leading to intermittent mid to high cloud cover at times this weekend. This should dampen the diurnal curve some, but within weak low level flow, conditions are expected to remain seasonal through Sunday.

Beginning Monday, the west CONUS ridge will start to break down as a mid level vort max introduces height falls across the Plains. This should lead to a surge of WAA across the Ohio Valley pushing Monday's high temperatures into the upper 40s to low 50s. Currently hedging towards the upper end of the spectrum with temperatures on Monday given the increase in WAA. This WAA will also be associated with breezy SW winds; sustained around 8-12mph with gusts up to 25mph.

Following the breakdown of the upstream ridge, ensemble members become more spread within quasi-zonal flow aloft. That said, the general solution is for a broad surface low to develop within upper level divergence late Monday through Tuesday across the central CONUS. This will likely lead to an increase in cloud cover and buoyed temperatures as southerly flow returns. Isentropic lift near the low center may allow for showers to develop over portions of the Great Lakes to Ohio Valley region, but confidence is low at this time on placement.

The more substantial weather system is expected to develop late next week attached to a digging trough over the West Coast. Once again, there is a very wide variety in potential solutions with this second low, but a majority of the ensemble members are hinting as some kind of wave passage Thursday through Saturday of next week.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 555 AM EST Fri Jan 2 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings at KLAF and possibly at KIND this morning

Discussion:

Confidence is low in stratocumulus this morning with KLAF and KIND near the meandering edge of the deck. Will go with a few hours of MVFR ceilings at KLAF with a low confidence TEMPO group at KIND into mid-morning.

Otherwise, mid and high cloud ceilings are expected for the remainder of the period. Winds will be less than 10kt and generally from the north or northeast.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.