textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered storms into this evening with highest coverage across eastern Indiana

- Slow moving storms may produce pockets of flooding

- Generally dry Tuesday and Wednesday, better chances for showers and storms late Thursday into the weekend

DISCUSSION (This Evening through Monday)

Issued at 233 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A humid airmass remains over the Ohio Valley with continued risks for isolated to scattered convection through this evening as an upper wave slowly drifts through. Upper level ridging will briefly reestablish as the wave aloft and deeper moisture shift south Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front will move into the region and become nearly stationary by late Thursday...bringing another period of unsettled weather into the weekend.

This Afternoon through Wednesday Night

Stratus has fully mixed out into a cu field this afternoon with isolated showers drifting south to the north and west of the Indy metro. 18Z temperatures ranged from the upper 70s to the mid 80s.

The back side of the upper wave that has been parked over the region will drift south through the rest of the day and interact with a weakly unstable airmass present. Convection has been shallow in nature but additional heating over the next few hours should lead to a subtle uptick in coverage through late day focused especially over the eastern half of the forecast area. Any stronger cell will carry a threat for locally gusty winds as cores collapse...but the slow storm motion supports torrential rainfall as the primary threat from convection through the evening.

Any lingering showers or storms will diminish near sunset with quiet yet muggy conditions overnight. There remains potential for stratus to advect back into the region from the northeast in the predawn hours Tuesday...but the expansion of drier air from the north should keep stratus from becoming as widespread as it has the last two mornings. Weak ridging at the surface and aloft will expand across central Indiana Tuesday...forcing the convective threat closer to the Ohio River during the afternoon. With no appreciable forcing aloft and a largely dry column...have removed any mention of precip on Tuesday. There will be diurnal cu developing for the afternoon but that should even shift south late day as weak subsidence advects in from the Great Lakes.

The high will shift east and wash out on Wednesday but subtle surface ridging lingers which should keep most of the forecast area dry. The only exception will be over southern portions of the forecast areas as the axis of deeper moisture near the Ohio River lifts back north and interacts with a weakness in the mid level flow. Scattered convection will be possible largely south of a Sullivan-Bloomington-Columbus line mid to late afternoon.

With increasing sunshine for Tuesday and Wednesday...expect temperatures will recover back into the mid 80s for most of central Indiana.

Thursday Through Monday

The primary feature for the extended will be a cold front drifting south into the Ohio Valley on Thursday and becoming quasi-stationary as it bumps into the flat upper level ridge to the south. With the upper level flow transitioning to northwest as the core of the heat ridge retrogrades into the Intermountain West...there is increasing potential for convective clusters to track across parts of the region Thursday night into Saturday as individual perturbations aloft interact with the quasi-staionary frontal boundary.

Detail on placement of the boundary and primary timing of convective impacts remains inconclusive at this early stage. No strong signals are present for organized severe weather at this time but convection will likely carry a risk for damaging winds/microbursts with any stronger cells. Heavy rainfall and flooding will again be primary concerns with a deeply saturated airmass highlighted by PWATS approaching 2 inches.

Temperatures will largely hover near normal for much of the extended with highs in the 80s. Mid to upper 80s on Thursday will cool through the weekend. It now appears that a cooler drier airmass may remain bottled up to the north late weekend into early next week as the broad upper level ridge will shift back east towards the Mississippi Valley. This would support temperatures returning to near to above normal levels.

AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1226 PM EDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings improving early this afternoon

- Isolated to scattered showers/storms possible late afternoon/ early evening

- MVFR restrictions in patchy fog and low ceilings early Tuesday, especially at KBMG and KIND

Discussion:

Stratus continues to gradually mix out into a cu field early this afternoon with any lingering MVFR ceilings at KHUF diminishing over the next hour or two. Isolated to scattered convection will develop in the moist and weakly unstable environment late this afternoon and evening...especially at KIND and KLAF in closer proximity to a slow moving upper level wave. Any showers that develop will diminish near sunset.

Lower stratus may again advect back southwest into the area predawn Tuesday with highest confidence for MVFR ceilings at KBMG and KIND. Patchy fog will be a possibility as well at the outlying terminals. Stratus will mix out Tuesday morning as drier air advances into the region from the north.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.