textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Becoming partly cloudy with a low chance for showers this afternoon and tonight across northern Central Indiana.

- Milder Friday into the weekend, with showers and perhaps a thunderstorm Friday afternoon into Friday night.

- Additional chances for showers and a storm or two late in the weekend and again mid week, with temperatures remaining near to below normal.

FORECAST UPDATE

Issued at 958 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

The forecast remains in good shape with no major changes needed. Current satellite imagery depicts quiet weather with clear skies across central Indiana as surface high pressure is in place. Enhanced cloud cover and precipitation was noted further northwest of the area near eastern Iowa stretching east into northern IL/southern WI. This is associated with a weak disturbance which will move in later today bringing chances for showers after 3-4pm, mainly across N/NW counties. Very limited instability should limit any threat for lightning. Plentiful sunshine for much of the day will allow for temperatures to reach the low-mid 60s this afternoon.

DISCUSSION (Today through Wednesday)

Issued at 206 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows high pressure centered over KS, with a ridge axis stretching east across MO to IL and Indiana. A cold front was draped across the deep south, resulting in thunderstorms in its vicinity. Aloft, water vapor shows a broad trough over Ontario into the Great Lakes and sagging into Indiana. Subsidence was mainly in place across Indiana. GOES16 shows clear skies across central Indiana with dew points mainly in the 30s.

Today and Tonight...

The strong area of high pressure to the west will push east and slowly push across Central Indiana today and into the evening. Forecast soundings show a dry column across the area this morning, but hint at mid level saturation this afternoon as convective temperatures are reached. Furthermore, models show a weak upper disturbance pushing across northern Indiana this afternoon. Thus with these two features, clouds will increase this afternoon. HRRR has been suggesting some light rainshowers this afternoon across the northern parts of the forecast area. Will include low chances for this from mid afternoon toward 00Z to account for this weak wave. Westerly winds today will lead to warmer temperatures with highs in the mid 60s.

Forecast soundings keep mid level cloudiness across the area tonight while the lower levels remain dry. Little to no forcing appears aloft within the NW flow, yet the HRRR continues to try to keep some showers in play across the northern parts of the forecast area. Thus may keep some very low confidence pops across the northern parts of the forecast area, otherwise, partly cloudy skies will be expected.

Friday and Friday Night...

Higher confidence for rain will be in play for Friday and Friday Night. Models show the arrival of a stronger short wave within the flow aloft on Friday afternoon into Friday Night. This will be accompanied by the a warmer and more humid air mass in place across Central Indiana. A cold front will be found to the west of Indiana on Friday, allowing, warmer, southerly flow to push across Indiana through the day. By afternoon, forecast soundings show a mostly saturated column with pwats approaching 1 inch and some convection will be possible. Severe threat appears limited as instability is not strong. The 295K GFS Isentropic surface shows good lift with specific humidities approaching 6 j/kg. Thus summing this up, Friday may start off dry, but rain chances will increase as the day progresses as moisture and forcing arrive by late afternoon and into the evening. Look for highs in the upper 60s to around 70.

Saturday and Saturday Night...

The previous cold front looks to stall across the area on Saturday, while the cyclonic flow remains in place aloft. The best forcing energy looks to exit on Saturday morning and forecast soundings suggest mid and upper level subsidence as the day progresses. Still, there appears some uncertainty with the overall timing of the departure of the front and how much lower level moisture will remain across the area. Thus will keep some pops in forecast, focused mainly on the morning hours.

Sunday through Wednesday...

The only dry day during this time period looks to be Monday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will be needed in the forecast on Sunday, Tuesday and Wednesday.

The upper flow during this time is suggested to remain rather unchanged during this period, continuing northwest flow from central Canada spilling into the Ohio Valley. This flow remain due to persistent ridging over the western United States and a persistent upper low over Quebec.

Several short waves are expected to pass across Indiana within this flow. The first is looks to be on Sunday, as a cold front is expected to be crossing the state on Saturday Night and exiting the southeastern parts of the Indiana on Sunday. Subsidence and dry air should arrive from the northwest as the day progresses, thus dry weather will be expected by late in the day into the evening.

Monday looks to be the only dry day as a large, cool and dry high pressure systems settled over Indiana from the upper midwest and Canada. This will result in a dry and cool day with below normal temperatures.

Two more upper short waves with in the NW flow aloft look to pass on Tuesday and Wednesday respectively. Tuesday/s system may be a bit moisture starved as the preceding air mass looks to be quite dry, however within the lower level a moderate warm front is suggested to be pushing toward central Indiana and forecast soundings suggest some mid level saturation as pwats climb through the day. Thus some chances will be needed for Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Another subtle wave looks to pass on Wednesday and Central Indiana will be in the warm sector with a surface low in place north, over the Great Lakes. For the moment, forecast soundings suggest steep lapse rates favorable for convection. A cold front also looks to be approaching by late afternoon into the evening. Thus a warm day in the 70s with chances for showers and storms is expected.

AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 701 AM EDT Thu May 7 2026

Impacts:

- Low-VRF ceiling at KIND after 15Z Friday

Discussion:

VFR will prevail over central Indiana terminals into Friday morning. High cloud crossing the region this morning...will eventually yield to generally SCT/BKN mid cloud this afternoon through tonight. A few showers crossing northern areas later today-tonight may reduce visibility briefly at KLAF but confidence in MVFR too low to include in TAF. Lower ceilings to arrive late Friday morning over KIND.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.