textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances this morning associated with a decaying storm complex

- Better chances for showers and storms Saturday along with much warmer temperatures

- Daily storm chances continue Sunday into early next week with much warmer than normal temperatures continuing through Monday

- A frontal passage Tuesday into Wednesday will bring additional chances for strong to severe storms along with cooler weather afterwards

DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)

Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Overview.

Today will be the start of a significant transition from the recent cool and dry conditions toward a much warmer, more humid, and active pattern. Rain chances today will mostly be limited to the morning hours with daily chances for showers and storms continuing Saturday into early next week. The much warmer pattern will also bring highs into the 80s starting Saturday and continuing through much of early next week with a low-end chance for the first 90 degree day of the year. More seasonable temperatures look likely late next week towards the weekend with additional low rain chances.

Today through Saturday.

A shift in the broader synoptic pattern will begin today as surface high pressure departs to the east, allowing southerly winds to draw moisture northward from the Gulf. A weak upper-level disturbance is projected to cross the area on Friday morning, bringing decaying storm complex which is expected to bring showers to the western half of the forecast area with some uncertainty as to the eastern extent. Daytime temperatures will recover into the lower 70s under mostly cloudy skies.

Conditions become more favorable for organized weather on Saturday as a plume of higher moisture and atmospheric instability pushes into the Ohio Valley. Latest Hi-Res guidance indicates a stronger shortwave of energy will arrive from the west, likely triggering scattered thunderstorms throughout the day. While widespread severe weather is not currently expected for Saturday, the increasing moisture content and rising temperatures into the low to mid 80s will provide enough instability for some storms to produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Total rainfall amounts through Saturday could vary, but the main impact will be the change to a more humid and unstable environment that will continue into early next week.

Sunday through Thursday.

The most significant weather impacts are expected during the first half of next week as an unseasonably strong ridge of high pressure builds over the East Coast with the Ohio Valley within stronger southwesterly flow. This setup will push a warm front north of the region on Sunday, bringing both warmer temperatures and some of the highest dewpoints of the season. High temperatures on Sunday and Monday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s, with some locations potentially flirting with the 90-degree mark for the first time this year.

Monday appears to be the most favorable day for potential strong to severe storms. A strong low-level jet stream will transport deep moisture into the area, raising surface dew points into the upper 60s. Currently, model ensembles suggest a potent cold front will approach late Monday or Tuesday with numerous to widespread showers and storms ahead of the frontal passage. Given the high levels of instability available, a threat for severe thunderstorms including damaging winds and large hail will be possible during this window. The timing of the cold front remains slightly uncertain, with some simulations holding the boundary back until Wednesday. Regardless of exact timing, a noticeable cooling trend will follow the front, with high pressure likely returning by next Thursday to provide drier conditions and more seasonable temperatures in the 60s.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 127 AM EDT Fri May 15 2026

Impacts:

- Potential for rain from 13-16Z.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period with mostly clear skies and light winds through tonight. Rain chances begin to increase after 12Z as a decaying complex of storms moves in from the west. Highest confidence for precip will be at HUF and BMG with lower chances at IND and LAF. Cigs will drop to around 050 with the rain with a gradual clearing towards mid to late afternoon. There could be a rumble of thunder or two, but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Winds will generally remain southwesterly to southerly at 7-12kts through the TAF period with a few gusts up to 20kts possible.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.