textproduct: Indianapolis

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for precipitation this morning, with a light coating of snow possible mainly over central portions; marginal temperatures should limit impact

- Warmer Friday and Saturday with highs well into the 50s and a few 60s possible

- Wintry mix possible late Saturday Night and Sunday. Details uncertain at this point, but confidence is building for an event that will include rain, snow and mixed precipitation across Central Indiana.

SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)

Issued at 127 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

A weak disturbance within moderately strong mid to upper level flow has led to some forcing in the 700-500mb layer late this evening, enough for saturation to begin in the mid to lower levels with cloud decks currently between 8-9 kft. Despite this, no precipitation is currently being observed due to a deep low level dry layer across central Indiana. Dew point depressions are still between 15-20 degrees across most sites as of 06Z, of which will significantly delay any precipitation onset til later tonight, likely to begin between 4 and 6 AM EST.

Snow amounts are likely to remain light across the area, due to a combination of overall weak forcing and SLRs below 10:1 with a warm near surface layer and ground temps above freezing for majority of the event. Some of the courser grid spacing models have picked up on some narrow 700mb frontogenesis as this wave pushes through in the Terre Haute to Bloomington to Seymour regions, but temperatures will be even more marginal there for snow accumulation. The current expectation is a light 0.1-0.2" across the I-74 corridor, with some potential for up to 0.5" near and just north of the aforementioned line if temperatures can cool fast enough and the frontogenesis remain strong for a few hours.

After this wave passes off to the east, weak ridging upstream of the W/NW flow will induce height rises and some general warming with temperatures nearing 50 by this afternoon. This should limit any snow related impacts, with any accumulating snow melting by 10-11AM EST. Winds will calm initially with the high pressure passing through, but will eventually increase overnight as a low develops over the Canadian Plains and the PGF increases.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 127 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Friday through Saturday Night...

Friday and Saturday...

Dry weather with above normal temperatures will be expected on Friday through Saturday. Models suggest the persistent NW flow within the upper levels will continue through Saturday night. This will allow a continued flow of mild, Pacific air to stream across the plains into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile within the lower levels, Central Indiana will be found in under the influence of southerly winds with open gulf moisture streaming northward due to a Bermuda high. A lingering frontal boundary will be found across northern IL and Michigan on Friday and Saturday. That will be a focus for Saturday Night and into Sunday.

Otherwise, forecast soundings on Friday through Saturday show a dry column with the only chances for clouds within the upper levels due to the quick NW flow aloft. Thus will trend toward a mostly clear Friday through Saturday Morning, with increasing clouds on Saturday afternoon. Given the warm gulf flow in place, highs in the upper 50s to around 60 will be expected on Friday. Additional cloud cover arriving on Saturday afternoon will hinder high temperatures then. Highs on Saturday may only reach the lower to middle 50s, with some 60s far south.

Saturday Night...

The warm weather will start to change on Saturday afternoon into Saturday Night, as clouds begin to arrive as the frontal boundary to the north begins to tighten and settle across central Indiana. Forecast soundings show lower level saturation increasing on Saturday afternoon, before more complete saturation arrives on Saturday Night. Forecast soundings at that time show a column below freezing, thus precipitation should be snow. Thus will include higher pops for snow at that time.

Sunday through Wednesday...

An active weather day is expected on Sunday as the lingering frontal boundary over Central Indiana will interact with arrival of short wave with favorable dynamics aloft. Forecast soundings here continue to remain saturated, with a freezing rain signature present due to overruning and warm air aloft. At this point, precise locations for this delicate set-up remain changeable. Thus for now, high pops will be used, and as impactful wintry weather is likely to occur.

Dry weather looks to return on Monday as high pressure north of Indiana provides cooler northeast flow and the frontal boundary sags southward toward the Tennessee Valley. Thus pattern should keep some clouds around on Monday and Tuesday, along with a return to near normal temperatures.

Chances for rain will return on Wednesday and Wednesday night as a stronger upper system is expected to emerge from the plains and push into the Ohio Valley. A warm front will push across Indiana with this feature and pops will be needed.

AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)

Issued at 1230 AM EST Thu Feb 26 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR possible late tonight with light snow/rain - Wind direction will vary through the period

Discussion:

An upper level system will bring a chance for snow (and perhaps briefly rain) overnight. The best chances for precipitation will be in the KHUF/KBMG areas, between 08Z and 12Z. MVFR conditions are possible. KIND may see brief precipitation mainly in the early part of that time period.

Clouds will decrease Thursday. With high pressure moving into the vicinity, winds will vary in direction through the period, with speeds less than 10kt overnight into Thursday.

IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.