textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will move through bringing some showers and thunderstorms to central and southeastern IL. Some storms could be strong to severe with damaging winds and/or large hail this evening.

- A warming trend will bring weekly temperatures above seasonal averages. Daytime highs are forecast to surge well into the 80s by the end of the week.

- A Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for north of I-70 through 7pm this evening. Wind gusts exceeding 30 mph are likely. Given relatively dry soils and peak agricultural activity, visibility along major roadways may become notably impacted due to blowing dust.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

A gradual warm up is expected by the weekend. Upper 80s to near 90 for highs is forecast for the weekend into early next week. However, the NBM is a bit hot on the temperatures right now. The LREF is showing cooler highs, as in closer to 80 degrees rather than 90, with 40-60% chance of exceeding 80 degrees Saturday and Sunday. Record highs for this weekend are in the low 90s.

Ahead of the front today, winds could be gusty (up to 30-40 mph). The HREF has a 40-60% chance of gusts greater than 35 mph on Tuesday north of I-74. However, north of I-70 has the potential for wind gusts greater than 30 mph today into the overnight. Those winds will have a lull as the front passes through late this evening, but will continue behind the front overnight into the morning. The gusts look to start to relax a little by tomorrow morning, but could still be gusting 20-30 mph during the day. These elevated winds will likely overlap with dry, loose soil and peak agricultural activity. Because the rain forecast for this evening may not be enough to adequately dampen the soil, notable visibility drops while traveling locally could occur again tomorrow. A Blowing Dust Advisory has been issued for parts of central IL for today.

Today a cold front will move through bringing some showers and thunderstorms to central and southeastern IL this evening. SPC has maintained a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather for today, focused on damaging winds and large hail. The threat should be fairly isolated and focused nearest to the front, where moisture, lift, and shear will be best. There looks to be some capping, suggesting that the storms may be elevated, supporting the hail risk. Decent mixing aloft and stronger downdrafts would support the damaging wind risk. Rainfall amounts will generally be less than a quarter inch, but higher amounts could be expected where a stronger thunderstorm may move through.

Behind the cold front, a high pressure system sets up over the region through Thursday evening. Then WAA and moisture return will bring additional rain chances into the weekend, suggesting a more active pattern returns. The CSU machine learning is hinting at some areas of 5% chance of severe weather for days 5-8. We will continue to monitor trends in the models to see if there could be any threat as the week progresses.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 555 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Winds out of the south-southwest will gust up to 35 knots today ahead of a cold front that will approach from the northwest later in the day, sparking the development of scattered thunderstorms around or shortly after 23Z in west-central IL. Although thunderstorms are expected to be high-based, heavy downpours may result in brief reductions in visibility which is noted in the PROB30 groups. Winds will shift to the west- northwest behind the front with speeds remaining elevated between 10-15 kts.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Blowing Dust Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061.