textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will prevail through this weekend, with a warming trend bringing temperatures back to above normal levels during mid and late week.

- Another long stretch of dry weather is expected across central and southeast IL through mid week, and possibly through Friday. Dry weather with warming temperatures may allow the moderate to severe drought over east central and southeast IL to continue to expand further into central IL.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

The 20Z/2 pm surface map shows 1025-1027 mb high pressure over the mid and upper MS river valley and providing ample sunshine to central/se IL today. Blanket of stratocumulus clouds with MVFR bases were ne of Gary, Lafayette and Indy metro. Few to scattered cumulus clouds were over southeast Crawford and central and northeast Lawrence counties. North to NW winds were around 10 mph or less, much lighter than yesterday. Cool temps were in the mid to upper 40s. Aloft an omega block pattern was over the country with strong 529 decameter 500 mb low in southern Quebec Province (north of Montreal) and another deep upper level low/trof off the Pacific Northwest coast while sharp skinny ridge over the central Plains from east Texas northward into Manitoba Province.

Clear skies, light to calm winds and dry air mass to bring another widespread hard freeze to CWA overnight with lows in the mid 20s common. Some shallow/patchy freezing fog possible near rivers/large water areas late tonight into mid Sunday morning especially IL river, but feel coverage too limited to mention at this time.

With the blocky weather pattern in place over the U.S., the surface high pressure ridge to slowly shift eastward from the MS river valley into the Ohio River Valley on Monday and into the mid Atlantic States on Wed. Dry conditions to likely continue across CWA through at least Wed night and possibly into Friday. Some high clouds to spread into central IL especially IL and MS river valley on Sunday with more cirrus closer to the MS river. Still a mostly sunny day in store over area on Sunday with light to calm winds and highs in the lower 50s. Another hard freeze expected Sunday night with lows in the mid to upper 20s. Sunny skies expected Monday and Tuesday across area with temps slowly modifying. Highs Monday in the mid 50s with light winds, and upper 50s on Tuesday with south winds 5-10 mph central IL and light in southeast IL.

Upper level ridge shifts into the Southeast States Wed-Friday with a northern stream short wave trof ejecting into the upper MS river valley and northern Great Lakes Wed night/Thu. Brunt of its moisture and lift to pass north/nw of central IL and just have slight pops far western/nw CWA on Thu. Meanwhile a stronger upper level trof digs into the Great Plains and upper Midwest by Friday night and Saturday. This to push a cold front eastward into IL late Sat or into Sunday morning. GFS model appears too quick with front moving in Sat afternoon while Ecmwf is slower with front moving into area Sunday morning. NBM shows pops of showers increasing from nw to se during Saturday to 30-50% by Sat afternoon over much of central IL with slight pops in southeast IL Saturday afternoon, though dry in far se CWA on Saturday. Temps continue to warm with increasing southerly flow during 2nd half of week, with highs around 60F to lower 60s Wed, low to mid 60s Thu, 60s Friday and upper 60s to around 70F Sat.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for Nov 22-28th has a 45-55% chance of above normal temperatures across IL with precipitation trending near normal. So pleasant late fall weather looks to continue the next two weeks over central/se IL.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period as high pressure settles over the area. Winds will be light and variable with mostly clear skies, aside from a few high cirrus on Sunday.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.