textproduct: Central Illinois
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- The primary focus for severe weather this afternoon will be along and south of a Shelbyville to Paris line where there is a greater than 10% chance for tornadoes.
- Strong westerly winds will develop tonight into Friday morning. Peak gusts will generally range from 35-45mph: however, there is a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.
LONG TERM
(Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
After a dry and seasonably cool day on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, a re-enforcing surge of cold air will drop readings back below normal by early next week. Models continue to advertise a western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern that will ensure the return of more winter-like temps for a couple of days before the pattern begins to break down and things warm back up by the middle and end of next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday will only reach the lower to middle 30s, but will bounce back well into the 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday.
Barnes
AVIATION
(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 543 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026
A broken line of convection has formed along an advancing dryline extending from near KUIN southeastward to KSLO. These cells will lift northeastward at 40-45mph and will impact the central Illinois terminals over the next few hours. Have continued the TEMPO group for thunder between 00z and 03z at all sites accordingly. Once the front passes, SE winds at 10-15kt will veer to W/SW and increase markedly late this evening through Friday morning. Based on the latest HRRR/RAP, gusts of 35-40kt will arrive at KPIA/KSPI by 06z...then further northeast at KCMI by 07z/08z. Winds will then veer to W/NW and only gradually decrease during the day Friday...with gusts dropping below 30kt by afternoon. After a period of partly to mostly clear conditions after FROPA later this evening, low clouds will spill back into the area from the west overnight. HRRR forecast soundings suggest MVFR returning between 07z and 09z. After that, ceilings will persist through much of Friday morning before slowly scattering from south to north across the area toward midday.
Barnes
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>056-061.
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