textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry fuels and low relative humidity will lead to an elevated risk for afternoon agricultural field fires through Saturday, especially south of the I-72.

- The next widespread chance for rain is late Saturday into Sunday, especially over east central and southeast IL. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance for more than a half inch of rain south of I-70 and a 20 percent chance as far northwest as Taylorville to Danville.

- There is a slight chance for showers late Thursday night into Friday morning north of I-74. Rainfall amounts will be light.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Most areas should see primarily clear skies through Saturday despite a dry cold front crossing the area today, and a shortwave impacting parts of the northwest forecast area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Today's front should bring not much more than an increased light southwesterly breeze of 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 20 mph, shifting to northwesterly this afternoon (evening south of I-70), and decreasing overnight. High pressure will build back in for Thursday, and shift toward the northeast U.S. Friday, bringing light winds and clear skies for Thursday, but allowing a shortwave and associated warm advection to bring a slight chance for showers late Thursday night into Friday morning, mainly north of I-74.

The next feature of note will arrive Saturday night as remnants of Tropical Storm Isaiahs, currently over the Gulf of America, arrives in the Ohio Valley region. The National Hurricane Center track shows this feature arriving as a tropical depression near the SW tip of IN at 7 AM Sunday, although models and official NHC track indicate continuing track uncertainty on the order of a state width. 00Z-LREF ensemble forecast now depicts 40 to 60 percent chances for more than half inch rainfall south of I-70, and up to 25 percent chance for over an inch, offering hope for a beneficial rainfall in this area but very low chances for excessive rainfall this far north. To the northwest of I-70, chances for greater than a quarter inch are less 50 percent and chances for any precipitation are less than 10 percent northwest of the IL River. Ensemble maximum precipitation is less than 2 inches across central and southeast IL.

Isaias should take a rapid turn eastward as it reaches the Ohio Valley region, with precipitation ending by Sunday afternoon across central and southeast IL. Dry conditions are forecast for Monday, followed by slight chances for precipitation again Tuesday as another frontal system passes through the region, likely with most of its impacts over the upper Midwest and Great Lakes.

Temperatures will follow a warming trend through Saturday as highs rise to the upper 70s and lower 80s Thursday, increasing to mid and upper 80s by Saturday. A dip in temperatures is forecast Sunday as cloud cover and precipitation associated with Isaias affect the area, and highs should be mainly mid 70s. Mid 80s can be expected Monday, followed by around 10 to 15 degrees of cooling for midweek associated with the frontal system.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites next 24hrs. Skies should be mostly clear or just be few cirrus. Winds will be northwest at 5-8kts and then become lighter this evening.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.