textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- While temperatures today will be the warmest of the week (50s), no cold surges are on tap. Temperatures into the weekend are expected to be above seasonal normals, with highs in the 40s common.

- The best chances of precipitation will be during the weekend, though trends are suggesting a lesser impact for areas north of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Latest surface map shows a frontal boundary extending from western Wisconsin to central Kansas. Temperatures remain well above freezing over most of the forecast area this hour, aside from areas south of I-70 in southeast Illinois, where winds are lighter and temperatures are near freezing. Recent cloud cover has been of the high variety and more concentrated north of I-72, though this has been thinning out some as it moves eastward.

Short range guidance has been in good agreement with the front reaching near the I-57 corridor by midday. Forecast soundings remain rather parched, and this is largely expected to be a dry passage. Highs in the lower 50s still seem reasonable north of I-70. Concern is with areas south of I-70, where forecast soundings show a steep inversion around 1,000 feet. CoCoRaHS observations from Monday morning showed about 2-2.5 inches of snow depth lingering across the Wabash Valley, and afternoon visible satellite imagery suggested that not much managed to melt off during the day as high temperatures were in the mid-upper 30s. Dew points are forecast to surge well into the 40s, and combined with the added moisture from snow melt, a stratus deck has potential to keep temperatures down somewhat. However, NBM 10th percentile max temperature guidance would still suggest at least lower 50s.

The Thursday shortwave continues to trend toward not being of much consequence, with lowering precipitation chances mainly in the 20% range. The stronger weekend storm is also leaning toward a lesser impact for central Illinois. Deterministic GFS/ECMWF guidance moves the strong upper low in north Texas to the east/southeast. NBM guidance has dropped by about 15-20% in rain chances Saturday and Saturday night, though an increasing number of GFS/ECMWF ensembles are suggesting PoP's north of I-70 may still be too generous. The Canadian model and its ensembles remain on the higher end of the guidance, stronger and further north with the storm system (with the upper low west of St. Louis by Sunday morning), and are likely driving the NBM too high. Thus, would expect subsequent forecasts to continue trending lower with rain chances.

The overall pattern continues to be devoid of any cold surges, with temperatures staying above mid-February normals. CPC 6-10 day outlook shows a 60-70% chance of above normal temperatures continuing through the end of next week.

Geelhart

AVIATION

(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Tuesday Night) Issued at 1102 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours, however a dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday morning, which will bring a shift in winds and possibly some brief low cloud cover. Overnight a low level jet around 45 kts from the SW will bring low level wind shear until 13Z-15Z. Surface winds S 10-13 kts overnight, shifting to NW by 15Z-17Z and increasing to 12-15 kts with gusts around 22 kts.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.