textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry fuels and low relative humidity will continue to provide an elevated risk for any afternoon agricultural field fires today, especially southeast of the Illinois river.

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias are expected to mostly pass to the east of IL this weekend. However, there is a 10-15% chance of 1" of rain Saturday night into Sunday in the far southeastern counties (Crawford, Richland, and Lawrence counties).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Southwesterly low level winds, 850 mb temps of 16-17C, and approaching upper ridging has allowed temperatures to surge back into the 80s today. We may approach record highs in a few locations. The upper level ridging will pass through the area tonight, with weak high pressure at the surface allowing for light winds. Hurricane Isaias, which is currently in the Gulf of America just off the coast of the AL/FL border, is expected to move north and make a slight jog to the left/west by early Saturday morning. The remnants are expected to cross KY on Sunday, but there continues to be some uncertainty regarding the track. Based on the current forecast model suite, there's only a 10-15% chance of 1" or more of rain in the far southeastern zones Saturday night into Sunday. Dry air will be in place today and Saturday ahead of the moisture surge. The above normal temperatures and dry fuels will elevate fire danger slightly this afternoon. Thankfully, winds are rather light, staying around 15 mph or less. Increased cloud cover and dew points will help limit fire danger on Saturday.

As the upper level low (remnants of Isaias) moves east on Sunday, an upper ridge will build in over the Midwest in it's wake. Temperatures will rebound to near record levels in the upper 80s to lower 90s on Monday. To the north, an upper wave will ride the ridge through MN/WI Monday night, suppressing the ridge a bit and pushing a cold front south through IL on Tuesday. A few showers/storms are possible with this front. A better chance for rain comes on Tuesday night and Wednesday as an upper wave ejects from the Central Plains ahead of a Central Rockies upper low. The upper low is expected to merge with a Canadian low, deepening into a large upper low over the Northern Plains by Thursday. Tuesday night through Thursday looks active (several chances of rain) followed by a push of cold air. Some of the latest model runs have temps at 850 mb next Saturday around -6 to -2C. The best you can get for daytime highs with that is maybe 50 degrees. The Grand Ensemble of models has a 30% chance of 850 mb temps less than 0C on Saturday. We'll see how things evolve.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. Expansive cloud shield with the remnants of Hurricane Isaias will overspread central Illinois with mainly ceilings above 20kft, though lowering to about 8-10kft at KDEC/KCMI Saturday evening. Any associated rain showers are expected to remain southeast of the terminals.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.