textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- The primary focus for severe weather this afternoon will be along and south of a Shelbyville to Paris line where there is a greater than 10% chance for tornadoes.

- Strong westerly winds will develop tonight into Friday morning. Peak gusts will generally range from 35-45mph: however, there is a 30-40% chance of gusts exceeding 45mph.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 246 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

After a dry and seasonably cool day on Saturday with highs in the upper 30s and lower 40s, a re-enforcing surge of cold air will drop readings back below normal by early next week. Models continue to advertise a western CONUS ridge/eastern CONUS trough pattern that will ensure the return of more winter-like temps for a couple of days before the pattern begins to break down and things warm back up by the middle and end of next week. Highs on Sunday and Monday will only reach the lower to middle 30s, but will bounce back well into the 50s by next Wednesday and Thursday.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1133 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

IFR/MVFR ceilings linger at the central Illinois terminals late this morning: however, with the warm frontal boundary lifting N/NW of the area and all guidance suggesting the low clouds will scatter over the next couple of hours...have opted to raise all sites to VFR after 19z/20z. While a band of showers will track along and south of I-72 this afternoon, the primary strong to severe convection will focus further south along/south of I-70. Most CAMs suggest scattered cells forming along an advancing cold/occluded front late this afternoon into early evening for all locations north of I-70. As such, have included a TEMPO group for thunder at all TAF sites between 23z and 03z. Winds will initially be S/SE at around 10kt this afternoon, then will veer to W/SW and increase markedly after frontal passage this evening. Latest guidance indicates gusts of 25-35kt tonight through Friday morning. As cold advection commences tonight, MVFR ceilings will pivot back into the area from west to east between 07z and 11z.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Friday for ILZ027>031-036>038-040>056-061.