textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of light freezing rain is possible (20-30% chance), Friday morning, primarily northeast of a Bloomington to Paris line.

- It will be breezy on Friday, with northwest wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph following a cold frontal passage. Colder temperatures follow for Friday night and Saturday.

- Above normal temperatures return early next week. There is potential for highs above 50 each day Monday through Wednesday, with the best chance being on Tuesday (50-80%).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 116 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

The first clipper system is pushing east of the area this afternoon after producing a brief period of light snow from Peoria southeast through Champaign this morning. A second, potentially more impactful wave arrives late tonight and Friday morning. While most of the precip will stay northeast of the local area, a narrow band of lift looks to bring a 1-3 hour period of light, scattered precip to northeast parts of the CWA during the morning rush. Forecast soundings show a warm nose developing between 850-700mb while surface temperatures remain in the 28-32F range. HREF probabilities of measurable freezing rain accumulations (0.01"+) are only 10-20% northeast of a Bloomington to Paris line. Nonetheless, any liquid precip on frozen pavement can cause slick spots, so we'll need to keep a close eye on radar trends as precip develops to our north late tonight.

A cold front will race south Friday morning. Post-frontal northwest winds will become brisk. HREF data indicates wind gusts will reach 25-35 mph as the pressure gradient tightens Friday afternoon. Temperatures will fall into the teens by Saturday morning, with wind chills at zero to +10. Saturday will be the coldest day of the period, with highs only in the 20s. High pressure will move quickly across the Ohio Valley Saturday night, allowing southerly return flow and moderating temps to return Sunday.

For the Monday through Wednesday period, a substantial warmup still appears on track. 850 mb thermal progs off the GFS/ECMWF show readings peak near +10C on Tuesday, which will be our best shot of reaching highs of 50+ area-wide. Regarding a developing lee-side cyclone for the Tue-Wed period, the 12z GFS/ECMWF and their ensemble members show a less phased system, with low pressure tracking into the Great Lakes Tue night-Wed. Given the spread in timing, the NBM shows a prolonged period of 20-30 PoPs from Tuesday night through Thursday. In reality there will likely be a much shorter window of rain, with prospects for beneficial rain amounts dependent on the degree of northern and southern stream phasing, which at this point looks minimal.

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AVIATION

(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

An area of MVFR cigs around 3000 ft AGL will gradually shift eastward this evening, leaving the area VFR through much of the night before a disturbance passing through the Great Lakes brings light precip as far southwest as the I-74 corridor Friday morning. Thermal profiles support a couple hours of scattered light freezing rain, particularly at KBMI-CMI, so continued a PROB30 group for this around 10Z-15Z. Meanwhile, WNW winds around 40 kts at 2000 ft AGL will produce low level wind shear. After the potential precipitation, a cold front will move through the area, bringing MVFR cigs by around 14Z. Winds SW 8-12 kts this evening, decreasing to 5-10 kts and shifting to WSW by 10Z. Winds becoming NW 12-18 kts with gusts around 25 kts by 15Z.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.