textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds today will promote near-record warmth through tomorrow with daily temperatures in the upper 60s to near 70.

- A Red Flag Warning continues for the elevated fire concerns today across west-central Illinois, due to the combination of warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for areas east/southeast of a Jacksonville to Havana line late tomorrow morning into the evening hours. All hazards are possible. - Cooler weather returns this weekend with a very low chance (20% or less) of light snow. On Monday morning, there is a 30-60% chance of apparent temperatures less than 10 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Sunny skies and breezy winds have helped to lift temperatures to the upper 60s with some sites reaching 70, challenging record warmth. Winds have been breezy with gusts to 20-30 mph today out of the west. The influx of dry air and strong mixing has allowed dew points to tank in northwestern portions of the forecast area. This combination lines up well with the Red Flag Warning area which remains in effect (see Fire Weather section below for more details). Temperatures will warm to the mid to upper 60s again on Thursday, with convective development likely limiting potential for records.

Westerly winds shift to southerly tonight as the strong low pressure system to our north tracks further northward. Another low pressure system in the elongated trough moves into the Central Plains Thursday morning and then tracks northeastward. Models, especially the hi-res models, have largely removed any potential of overnight rain, with conditions predominantly dry through mid- morning Thursday. There is variation in model timing, but late morning through the afternoon appears to be most favorable for the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms which start out as discrete storms and possible supercells. Later in the afternoon organization into a broken line is more likely with the storms towards eastern portions of the coverage area. The Day 2 SPC severe weather outlook has had a small westward expansion of the slight risk (level 2 of 5) area east/southeast of a line from Jacksonville to Havana with continuation of 5% tornado and 15% hail/wind areas. The environment continues to show very strong bulk wind shear of 50-75 kts, while CAPE varies among models but generally resides around 500-800 J/kg. While heavy rain may accompany thunderstorms, no training is anticipated and QPF is limited, so no flooding issues are projected.

Some models (such as the 18Z HRRR) break up the storm development into two phases with the first phase midday to early afternoon as a SSW to NNE oriented line moving towards Indiana, and the second phase late afternoon into the early evening as a NNW to SSE oriented line forming near the northern edge of the coverage area and tracking towards Chicago. Slight variations in position exist across the models. PoPs are somewhat limited through the day (peaking around 50-60% most places) because of the broken nature of these cells.

Strong cold air advection follows behind this system, sending temperatures much lower for the weekend, with highs dropping to the mid-30s by Sunday. Models have trended much weaker for precipitation potential Saturday, with only a slight chance of non-impactful snow remaining. Northwesterlies continue to bring cold air in late weekend, with Monday morning wind chills having a 30-60% chance of dropping below 10F. Dry weather begins next week, with a warming trend towards midweek.

PAH

AVIATION

(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon) Issued at 1147 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Breezy westerly winds continue today with gusts of 25-30 kts. Gusts drop off late in the afternoon, with lighter winds overnight shifting to the south. High cloud coverage increases tonight, with BKN 4-5kft cigs early tomorrow. MVFR cigs move into the southeast late in the forecast period. There is a possibility of vsby reductions near sunrise, mainly in the southeast, but increasing cloud cover and 3-5kt winds keep the potential limited enough to continue to leave out of the TAF. Rain chances at the end of the TAF period are also similarly too low to merit inclusion.

PAH

CLIMATE

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday:

Location Wednesday Thursday ======== ========= ========= Bloomington 72 (2017) 70 (1930) Champaign 70 (2017) 68 (2017) Charleston 68 (1961) 72 (1930) Decatur 70 (1911) 66 (1930) Lincoln 67 (2017) 71 (1930) Olney 72 (1961) 72 (1930) Peoria 68 (2017) 71 (1930) Springfield 68 (2017) 71 (2017)

Geelhart

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031- 036>038-041.