textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Unsettled weather is on tap for much of the week. There is a 60-80% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain from Tuesday through next Saturday.

- The greatest probability for severe weather will focus Tuesday afternoon and evening when a cold front pushes into the region.

..Strong Thunderstorm Potential Next Saturday

While it is still too early to pinpoint any specific severe weather risk, the final system of the active week ahead bears watching for next Saturday. All models agree that a digging upper trough will push a strong cold front through central Illinois sometime from Friday night through Saturday night. The ECMWF in particular has looked rather ominous over the past few runs, featuring a deepening low tracking from Iowa to Michigan and a trailing cold front passing through central Illinois Saturday afternoon. While machine learning algorithms do not yet have a clear signal for severe, both NCAR and NSSL indicate at least a low probability. Once the front passes, cooler/drier conditions will settle back into the Midwest by early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 18z TAF period. An area of clouds at around 5000ft will spread eastward to the I-57 corridor by 19z...with overcast conditions expected across the board for the remainder of the afternoon. While these clouds may tend to thin at times this evening and overnight, they will not completely clear the terminals until mid-morning Monday. Winds will initially be S with gusts to around 20kt this afternoon, then will decrease into the 10-15kt range by sunset. Models indicate a strengthening low-level jet after dark, so have included 40-50kt of wind shear at all sites after 03z accordingly. Some of this higher momentum air will mix to the surface Monday morning, resulting in SW wind gusts of 20-25kt at that time.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.