textproduct: Central Illinois

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of light snow will occur Sunday night into early Monday morning...with the latest guidance showing a 20-40% chance of minor impacts south of the I-74 corridor.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. The highest probability for severe weather (greater than a 15% chance) will focus further southwest across the Southern Plains.

- Confidence is growing that beneficial rainfall will occur across all of central and southeast Illinois over the next week. The 00z Feb 28 LREF indicates a 50-70% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain from today through next Saturday morning.

..Beneficial Rainfall Next Week

While the severe weather risk remains uncertain, confidence is growing that widespread beneficial rainfall will arrive across central Illinois next week. The synoptic pattern will feature favorable deep-layer W/SW flow, ample northward moisture transport from the Gulf, and a series of short-wave troughs interacting with a nearly stationary frontal boundary. The end result will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week. While model QPF fields vary, all solutions are pointing to much-needed rain across the entire region. It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals:however, the 00z LREF indicates a nearly 100% chance of greater than 1 inch across the entire KILX CWA through next Saturday morning...and a 50-70% of more than 2 inches.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 537 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the entire 12z TAF period. Mid/high clouds will be on the increase this morning with NAM/RAP forecast soundings suggesting ceilings gradually lowering to 7000-8000ft toward midday. After a period of overcast conditions, the clouds will partially scatter this evening. Winds will initially be N at 5-10kt early this morning, then will veer to E/SE this afternoon. After a weak area of low pressure passes south of Illinois, winds will back to NE and gust 15-20kt this evening.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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