textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A frigid air mass remains in place across central and southeast IL through this weekend. Overnight and morning wind chills falling as low as 5 to 20 degrees below zero, and being the coldest from overnight Friday night into Saturday morning. - There is a 20-30% chance of light south in southeast IL (south of I-70) late this afternoon into early overnight with a light dusting possible. Additional chances for light snow and flurries are possible from late Friday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Issued a Special Weather Statement for bitter cold wind chills early this morning, and again overnight into mid Fri morning and overnight Fri night into mid Saturday. Coldest wind chills of 10-20 below will be more common over portions of central and east central IL overnight Fri night into Sat morning due to a bit stronger winds.

The 09Z/3 am surface analysis shows 1030-1033 mb Arctic high pressure near over central/eastern Saskatchewan and into Manitoba, ridging southward into MN and Iowa. A weak 1010 mb low pressure was along the western KS/OK border with a frontal boundary extending eastward from sw KS to near the MO/AR border. A weak front/trof was over southeast Ontario province into southeast lower MI and far northern IN. A blanket of mid/high clouds had spread quickly ESE across central and southeast IL past few hours and these clouds out ahead of a short wave over NE/KS. Cold temps ranged from around zero near the IN border to lower teens from Macomb and Taylorville sw. The mid level clouds have caused temps to increase some as Lincoln was down to 3 below around midnight at currently at 5 above. Winds were light to calm so coldest wind chills in single digits below zero from BMI to Taylorville east are stay above cold weather advisory criteria.

Latest CAMS bring weak surface low pressure from the western KS/OK border to near the TX/AR border by sunset and into central MS overnight. An associated short wave to track from NE/KS into southern MO during this afternoon and into TN late this evening and overnight. Some light snow/flurries are possible over southern 6 counties late this afternoon into early overnight with a dusting possible. HREF has 20-40% chance of greater than a tenth inch of snow from Louisville (central Clay county) to Mt Carmel airport (southern Lawrence county) southward mainly during this evening. After having a fair amount of sunshine since Monday, mostly cloudy to overcast skies to prevail today with mid level cloud cover prominent. Highs only in the mid to upper teens central IL and around 20F in southeast IL. Lighter north to NE winds under 10 mph today.

Clouds to decrease from north to south from later this evening into overnight as light chance chances shift south of CWA by late tonight. Lows tonight of zero to 5 below in central IL and zero to 5 above in southeast IL. Wind chills overnight into mid Fri morning range from 5-15 below zero, coldest in east central IL from I-55 east and north of I-70. Will be teetering on cold weather advisory criteria over east central IL from 2-9 am Fri.

Models take a strong mid/upper level low/trof over Ontario and western Quebec southward into the southern Great Lakes by sunset Friday and pivots through CWA during Friday evening, reaching the Ohio river overnight Fri night. This system could bring a chance of light snow/flurries to northern/ne CWA by late Fri afternoon and over more of the area during Fri evening. Could also see lake effect snow from lake MI getting close to our ne CWA late Fri afternoon and Fri evening. Cold highs Friday 13-18F with clouds increasing through the day. Lows Fri night in the lower single digits, and around zero in east central IL. NNW winds will be a bit stronger Friday night into Saturday and cause wind chills to lower to 10-20 below zero overnight Fri night into mid Sat morning. Areas east of the IL river may need a cold weather advisory then.

Strong upper level low/trof moving into the southern Atlantic States late Saturday and develop a strong winter storm system off the East Coast that will likely affect the East Coast this weekend. Our area will be drier and continued very cold through Sunday as strong Arctic high pressure builds down into the Great Plains from the central Canadian Prairie Provinces. Highs Sat in the upper teens and lower 20s, and low to mid 20s Sunday. Lows Sat night zero to 5 above.

We appear to be on the southern edge of a clipper system late Sunday afternoon and more likely Sunday night and could bring chance of light snow/flurries to the area, but accumulations should be minor if they happen. Another wx system could bring next chance of light snow Tue night and Wed, though latest model runs are less with qpf/snowfall amounts over central/se IL. Temps modify a bit next work with with highs in the upper 20s/lower 30s and lows in the teens Monday through Thursday but still running below normal for early February.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) 8-14 Day Outlook for February 5-11th has a 33-40% chance of below normal temperatures east of the IL river, and trending near normal temperatures to the west. CPC has a 35-45% chance of below normal precipitation across the CWA.

07

AVIATION

(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Friday Afternoon) Issued at 1124 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

High pressure centered over Manitoba today will inch south into the Upper Midwest. Light north winds and VFR conditions will prevail across central Illinois ahead of the ridge axis.

Deubelbeiss

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.