textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty winds today will promote near-record warmth through the middle of the week with daily temperatures in the upper 60s.

- A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the elevated fire concerns today across west-central Illinois, due to the combination of warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

- There is a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for severe weather for areas east/southeast of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line late tomorrow morning into the evening hours. All hazards are possible. - Cooler weather returns this weekend with a low chance (20-30%) of snow. By Sunday morning, there is a 30-60% chance of apparent temperatures less than 10 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Isolated areas of light sprinkles are still lingering in central IL this morning. They should be done by 10-12z. If any of the rain is able to reach the surface, amounts have been minimal this far. The dry midlevel has been limiting the rain from reaching the surface. This is encouraging the enhanced fire weather risk for today since we weren't able to get sufficient wettening of the ground from this wave of precipitation. See Fire Weather Section below for a more detailed forecast pertaining to fire weather concerns today.

We will be flirting with more potential record highs today and tomorrow. Highs in the 60s, nearing 70 are forecast. This will be the warmest morning we have had in awhile. After the cold front passage tomorrow, temperatures are set to cool to more seasonable levels for the end of the week, with highs in the mid 30s to low 40s and lows in the upper teens to upper 20s. The LREF is showing a 30- 60% chance of apparent temperatures less than 10 degrees on Sunday morning. These near seasonable temperatures continue into the new week with them warming back to above normal by mid next week.

The wind machine has been cranking tonight. The wind advisory has been allowed to expire since gusts have stayed below 45 mph for the last few hours, though winds are still quite strong. Southerly winds have started to shift to westerly this morning as the first cold front of the week passes. Wind gusts of 20-30 mph this morning. Winds should relax to 10-15 mph by 00z this evening.

The second system of the week will move through central and southeastern IL late Thursday morning into the evening. This system will bring 60-80% chance for rain and thunderstorms to central and southeastern IL. Strong to severe storms will begin developing around 15-17z Thursday and should exit the eastern border into Indiana by 00z that evening. Storm type will start out discrete with some supercellular activity. As the storms start to approach far eastern IL, it appears to evolve into a more linear mode, potentially with embedded supercells. The environmental factors for Thursday afternoon show MUCAPE/SBCAPE values of 700-1000 J/kg and bulk wind shear of 50-70 knots. There is 500-700 J/kg of DCAPE on the forecast soundings. Initially with the discrete storm type, (near) severe hail and tornadoes will be the main concern. As the event evolves into a more linear fashion, a damaging wind threat will become increasingly likely. All hazards are being watched with this event. SPC has kept a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for areas east/southeast of a Jacksonville to Bloomington line for tomorrow. The 5% tornado risk is focused south of I-72. The 15% hail and damaging wind risk is for the entire slight risk area.

The third system on Saturday that could bring some rain, snow, and maybe a mix to central and southeastern IL is looking a little less likely with recent runs of long range models. If we are able to squeeze out any precipitation, snow amounts should be minimal, just a dusting. We need to get through the first two systems, so we will continue to monitor this development as the week continues.

Copple

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Thursday Morning) Issued at 525 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected for the 12z TAF period. Gusty west- southwest winds this morning (gusting 25-30 knots) will lessen throughout the day today. By mid afternoon, gusts will die down with winds still sustained at 10-20 knots out of the southwest. After 06z, winds become light and variable (generally out of the south).

Copple

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 245 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

There is elevated fire danger today, a side effect of the unusually warm and breezy conditions. The primary risk area is portions of west-central and northern Illinois, where rainfall has been particularly sparse over the last 30 days. This threat is expected to develop by late morning behind the surface front/dryline, with wind gusts gradually decreasing into the 20-30 mph range and relative humidity (RH) values dropping below 25%. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for areas north of a Hancock County to McLean County line where wind gusts will be highest and RH will be lowest. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Copple

CLIMATE

Issued at 252 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Record high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday:

Location Wednesday Thursday ======== ========= ========= Bloomington 72 (2017) 70 (1930) Champaign 70 (2017) 68 (2017) Charleston 68 (1961) 72 (1930) Decatur 70 (1911) 66 (1930) Lincoln 67 (2017) 71 (1930) Olney 72 (1961) 72 (1930) Peoria 68 (2017) 71 (1930) Springfield 68 (2017) 71 (2017)

Geelhart

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038-041.