textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly clear skies with slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Wednesday.

- A weak weather system may bring a 15-20% chance for a dusting of snow to parts of central Illinois on Thursday, though little to no accumulation is expected.

- A significant warming trend begins this weekend and continues into next week. There is a 60-90% chance that high temperatures will reach the 60s by next Tuesday.

- The chance for rain (30-50%) this weekend continues to shift south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Today/Tonight (Post-Frontal Winds and Overnight Chill)... A cold front is actively sweeping through central Illinois this afternoon. Expect winds to quickly shift to the northwest and increase, with gusts peaking in the 25 to 30 mph range behind the front. Temperatures will fall into the mid to upper 20s overnight into Wednesday morning.

Late-Week (Weak System and Warming Trend)... The second half of the work week will see broad upper troughing centered along the East Coast, maintaining a northwest flow aloft over central Illinois. This setup creates a west-to-east temperature gradient across the region, with slightly warmer air to the west. Wednesday and Thursday will feature a period of slightly above-normal temperatures, with highs generally ranging from the low 40s (east) to the mid 40s (west). Mid to upper 40s are expected area-wide on Friday.

A damping shortwave trough is progged to dig from the northern Great Plains Wednesday night toward northern Illinois by Thursday afternoon. A narrow ribbon of isentropic ascent (285-295K surfaces) is anticipated ahead of this wave, which suggests a chance for precipitation despite the ebbing forcing. However, the latest model guidance continues to reduce the likelihood of measurable precipitation, and especially accumulating snow. This reduction is due to both the weak forcing and a sufficiently warm boundary layer evident in forecast soundings, which would quickly melt falling hydrometeors. The NBM is now very pessimistic regarding snow accumulation, suggesting a probability for an inch of snow is less than 5%. The probability of a dusting (0.1 inches) is only around 15-20% across central Illinois. Precip type probabilities from the NBM favor rain south of I-74, with a more even split of rain/mix probabilities along the I-74 corridor.

Weekend/Extended (Southerly Track and Significant Warming)... Focus then shifts to a strong shortwave trough forecast to move across Southern California and Baja on Friday before tracking east across the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday night. Both the recent ECMWF and GFS model runs have shifted this feature significantly south, aligning with a track that keeps nearly all associated precipitation out of the central Illinois forecast area (with only the GFS clipping our southern three counties). The GEM, while still a northerly outlier, has also trended south. The NBM, often slower to adjust to operational model shifts, maintains a PoP spread of 25% (north) to 50% (south) for Saturday and Saturday night.

Assuming the southerly track holds, the weekend is expected to be rather benign. Conditions will be mild with light winds under the influence of a surface ridge north of the low track, yielding high temperatures well into the 50s.

As the surface ridge axis shifts east through the middle of next week, a significant and gradual warming trend will continue across central Illinois. The likelihood of high temperatures reaching the 60s peaks on Tuesday, with probabilities ranging from 60% in the east to 90% in the west, followed by a 50% chance in the north to an 80% chance in the south on Wednesday.

Deubelbeiss

AVIATION

(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 505 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

High pressure to the west will bring VFR conditions with just periods of scattered high clouds for the upcoming 24 hours. Winds NW 7-11 kts expected through the period.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.