textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- The next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 3am Thursday to 3am Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms accompanying a strong cold front tomorrow afternoon and evening. SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south.

- Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon.

- Much cooler weather will settle into the region Friday through the weekend potentially resulting in areas of frost both Saturday and Sunday mornings.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

The cold front will continue to sag south of the forecast area this afternoon. Widely dry weather is in store for the remainder of the day across central and southeastern IL. Many people won't see significant relief from the warmer temperatures until after the system exits tomorrow night.

There could be some light, scattered showers late this evening in the west, but the next efficient push of rain will come late tonight into early tomorrow morning as the front pushes back north as a warm front. The morning round of widespread rain could have some high rainfall rates at times and be a proficient rain producer. PWATs will be around 1.8-2.1 inches, which is high for the month of October. The average PWAT for October 15th is around 0.6-0.7 inches based off the SPC sounding climatology. The good news is that our soils can handle this rain decently since we have been so dry lately. The rain is welcomed. The LPMM is showing some localized swaths of 1-3 inches of rain from 08z Thursday to 08z Friday on top of what has already fallen this morning.

A short period of dry weather will move in briefly early in the afternoon tomorrow before the trailing cold front races eastward. When the cold front advances east tomorrow afternoon/evening, a severe weather risk and additional rain will be accompanying it. Currently, SPC has a marginal (level 1 of 5) risk for severe weather, including a 5% damaging wind risk and 2% tornado risk, from about a Pittsfield to Gibson City line and south. The environment looks supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms. Storm type looks like it may begin as discrete, supercells that will evolve into a multicell/QLCS mode as it exits to the east. How much of this primed environment we will achieve will be determined by if we can recover fully from the morning convection/rainfall. Timing of these storms seems to be ~20z-02z. After these storms exit to the east, additional showers and thunderstorms (not severe) could occur through Friday evening. After Friday afternoon, the forecast will be dry through the extended period.

After the cold front pushes off to our east early Friday morning, cooler, more fall like temperatures will be ushered in for a few days. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 50s to low 60s, with lows in the mid to upper 30s. There is a chance for some patchy frost to develop across the northern half of the state Saturday morning and most of the state Sunday morning. How widespread the frost can get on Saturday morning will depend if the wind doesn't get too gusty. Beyond Sunday morning, temperatures will begin to warm back up to low 70s for highs on Monday, then to upper 70s by Wednesday next week.

The pressure gradient with the passing low pressure system will tighten behind the cold front. Wind gusts on Friday will be around 30-40 mph, with the greatest wind gusts possible west of I-57. The LREF shows a 40-70% chance of wind gusts greater than 35 mph west of I-57 Friday morning, with gusts relaxing after 1pm that afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 552 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A mix of ceiling heights above and below the MVFR threshold this evening, will trend to MVFR area wide overnight. There is a high probability (60-80%) that IFR ceilings will affect all central IL terminals Thursday morning into the afternoon. Scattered SHRA will be possible on Thursday, with a chance of TSRA later in the afternoon. Coverage and timing are both low confidence at this point, so kept mention to PROB30. Northeast winds near/under 10 kt tonight, will veer southeast Thursday morning, then southwest during the afternoon. Some gusts over 20 kt are possible ahead of the cold front late in the afternoon.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.