textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will prevail...with highs reaching 60 degrees or higher by next Monday through Wednesday.

- A storm system will bring rain to parts of central Illinois late Saturday afternoon through early Sunday morning. The highest probability (greater than a 50% chance) for over 0.50 rainfall will focus south of a Quincy...to Springfield...to Paris line.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Next Thursday) Issued at 215 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A prominent short-wave trough noted on the latest water vapor imagery off the coast of Baja, California will push eastward over the next 24-48 hours...resulting in surface cyclogenesis across the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles on Friday. 12z Feb 12 models are in good agreement with the track of the low...generally E/SE into the Deep South by Sunday. Given this particular trajectory and the presence of a dry airmass across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes, confidence is growing that most of the associated precipitation will focus across the southern half of the KILX CWA and that there will be a sharp northern cut-off to the rain. While model QPF fields still vary to some extent, it appears locations north of the I-72 corridor will see little if any rainfall. Amounts will steadily increase further south...with the 12z NBM indicating a 50-60% chance of greater than 0.50 south of a Quincy...to Springfield...to Paris line and a 40-50% chance of more than 1 inch south of an Effingham to Robinson line. While the ground has been frozen solid for awhile, recent sunshine and warmer temperatures have resulted in a thaw of the first few inches of soil. As a result, do not think the more significant rainfall anticipated along/south of I-70 will create any major flooding concerns this weekend.

Once the low passes to the south of Illinois, any lingering showers will come to an end Sunday morning...followed by a stretch of warm/dry weather into Tuesday. Given rising upper heights, temperatures will climb into the upper 50s/lower 60s by Monday and Tuesday, then will soar well into the 60s on Wednesday as W/SW flow increases ahead of an approaching storm system.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening) Issued at 500 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Mid level clouds will thin this evening, leaving mainly clear skies into Friday morning. SCT diurnal cu are forecast to develop around midday and persist through afternoon. Light southeast winds tonight will veer south and increase to 10-12 kt Friday morning.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.