textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A rain system today could bring heavy rain south of I-70. The current forecast supports a low (50-70%) chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain near and south of I-70. Further north, totals will be significantly lower.

- Unseasonably warm air (20-25 degrees above normal) arrives next week, peaking Wednesday and Thursday with mid-60s to lower 70s temperatures. Expect gusty southwest winds (20-30 mph) to accompany this warmup.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Happy Valentine's Day! Today the pattern changes and rain is expected. A low pressure system is expected to travel eastward across the southern part of the U.S. this weekend. Thankfully, temperatures will remain above freezing for the next week, so all precipitation we receive will be in liquid/rain form. Rain should start in the southern part of the CWA around 18z today and will continue for the remainder of the day. Then exiting southeastern IL by late morning tomorrow.

The models have continued to wobble around with where exactly this low will travel, which will determine how much rain our CWA will see. However, over the last day, the trends have shifted the rain more northward. The best chances to see a healthy dose of rain is focused along and south of the I-72 corridor. The NBM is showing a 20-50% chance of exceeding 1 inch of rain from 18z Sat to 18z Sun between I-72 and I-70, and a 50-70% chance of exceeding an inch south of I-70. Currently, have QPF of 0.5-0.9 inch along and south of I-72 and amounts decreasing rapidly as you move north of I-72. The soil has begun to thaw thanks to the warm temperatures as of recent, so flooding risks are low as of now. The WPC does have us in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Saturday.

Above normal temperatures aren't going anywhere anytime soon. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s, and lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s are forecast for the next week. The warmest day being next Wednesday with the NBM having a 40-60% chance of temperatures exceeding 65 degrees that afternoon. Tuesday and Wednesday, while being warm, will also be quite windy, with forecast wind gusts of 20-30 mph.

A cool down to more seasonable temperatures looks possible as a low pressure system looks to travel through the area mid to late week, bringing more chances for some light rain and potentially some thunderstorms with it.

Copple

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 531 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A rain system will move through central IL today, primarily impacting SPI/DEC/CMI. PIA/BMI should remain dry with the system passing to the south. Clouds will increase as the system approaches and will lower thoughout the 12z TAF period. MVFR conditions will begin by 00z at SPI, with all other sites joining by 07z. There is a chance for IFR ceilings tomorrow morning at SPI/DEC/CMI as the rain is exiting but confidence isn't high enough to include at this time.

The rain is expected to start in SPI by 20z, DEC by 22z, and CMI by 00z. The rain should conclude by 08z tomorrow morning as PIA/BMI may start to see some fog (MVFR visibilities).

Copple

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.