textproduct: Central Illinois
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather areawide today. While all severe weather hazards will be possible, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the most likely.
- Additional thunderstorms will develop along an advancing cold front on Tuesday, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather in areas east of Interstate 55. Once again, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph will be the most likely hazard.
..Midweek Clearing Followed by a Wet Weekend Outlook
Wednesday through Thursday: A welcome pattern shift occurs mid- week as a cooler, significantly more stable post-frontal regime takes hold. Continental high pressure building into the Midwest will clear skies and lower humidity levels, offering a brief reprieve from the active weather.
Friday through Sunday: The dry spell will be short-lived. Global deterministic models are in notably better agreement, signaling a return to a wetter, unsettled pattern by late week. As the surface high pressure slants eastward, a potent mid-level shortwave will advance across the central U.S. A steady plume of Gulf moisture combined with a series of minor shortwave impulses lifting northeast from the Southern Plains will keep central Illinois susceptible to multiple rounds of scattered showers. While weak kinematic profiles should heavily restrict the overall severe weather risk, a gradual build-up of instability over the weekend will support widespread thunderstorm development.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 1231 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026
Low level wind shear is expected through early morning across central IL as strong SSW winds aloft around 50 kts continue. A line of thunderstorms will continue approaching from the west overnight, anticipated to arrive at KPIA by 12Z, KSPI and KBMI by 14Z, and KDEC/KCMI by 15Z. Have included a 3-hour tempo group for MVFR cigs/vsbys for these thunderstorms, then scattered showers are likely to continue for a few to several hours after the storms, although with generally VFR conditions. Anticipate briefly worse conditions in any of the stronger storms. Winds S 12-20 kts overnight with a few higher gusts. Winds increase to 15-20 kts with gusts 25-30 kts after 12Z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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