textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, hit-or-miss snow today: Scattered snow showers may produce up to 1 to 2 inches in spots, with some areas seeing little or no accumulation. Brief snow squalls, especially during the evening commute, could cause localized visibility drops and slick travel.

- Dangerous cold is the main concern: A persistent cold pattern will bring single-digit lows and below-zero wind chills Sunday through Tuesday, with only occasional light snow and no major winter storms.

DISCUSSION

(through next Friday) Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Multiple spokes of vorticity are expected to pinwheel through the broad cyclonic flow aloft today and tonight, resulting in scattered snow showers across the region. Recent ensemble guidance (HREF and REFS) suggests limited QPF (LPMM), generally under 0.05 inches, though isolated pockets could see up to 0.15 inches over any six-hour period.

Applying the central Illinois climatological snow-to-liquid ratio of 12:1 suggests a new snowfall accumulation of 0.5 to 1.5 inches. This is generally a sub-advisory-type snow event. However, impacts depend on the timing and intensity of the precipitation. For example, if localized snow squalls develop during the evening commute, as a few of the CAMs suggest, then the chance of minor travel disruptions increases due to sharply reduced visibility over short distances and slippery roads. But, as is typical with showery precipitation, some areas may not see any new accumulation today.

Below-normal temperatures will dominate the forecast period, driven by a strongly negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) which is expected to persist through the middle of next week before moderating. This pattern will establish high-latitude ridging over Alaska, displacing Arctic air southward into the Great Lakes and eventually central Illinois this weekend and early next week.

The primary concern will be dangerously cold temperatures. Lows are projected to drop into the single digits, resulting in wind chills falling below zero each morning from Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures are anticipated to return to more seasonable conditions toward the end of next week.

An active storm track will coincide with this cold air, bringing a wavetrain of disturbances across the Upper Midwest. These quick- hitting, clipper-like systems may occasionally impact central Illinois directly; however, they are not expected to develop into significant mid-latitude cyclones, and therefore are not forecasted to produce heavy snowfall over the next week.

MJA

AVIATION

(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Friday Night) Issued at 941 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Band of SN with localized IFR visibility will shift east of the terminals between 06-08z, then conditions will turn VFR area- wide. However another band of -SN is forecast to affect the area between about 11-16z, primarily with MVFR conditions. After that snow diminishes, MVFR ceilings should persist into afternoon before rising to VFR. Scattered SHSN will be around from mid afternoon to early evening but coverage too low to include beyond VCSH at this point. Southwest winds tonight will veer WSW by late morning gusting near 20 kt, then lose gustiness after sunset while veering west.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.