textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- After a seasonably cold day today, a warming trend will characterize early next week. 50s will be common west of I-55 on Monday, and area- wide on Tuesday, when there will even be a 30-40% chance for highs topping 60 south of a Macomb to Lincoln to Effingham line.

- The highest chance (30-50%) for precipitation over the next 7 days will be late Tuesday into Wednesday, especially along and south of the I-70 corridor. The probability of severe weather is low.

- At least slight precipitation chances linger through the remainder of the week, with the best signal (30-40% chance) Thursday into Friday. With forecast temperatures near freezing (above during the day, below at night), there is potential that some of this falls as a wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

***** SEASONABLY COLD TODAY, TURNING MILD NEXT WEEK *****

At 130am, a large upper level trough was centered along the Ontario/Quebec border, resulting in northwest flow over the Midwest and Great Lakes. As surface high pressure sinks into the region from the Upper Midwest, winds will ease allowing temperatures to fall into the teens by sunrise. Mostly clear skies to start the day will give way to increasing mid-high clouds ahead of another shortwave trough, though sufficient radiational warming early in the day should bring highs into the mid 20s east of I-57 to low 30s west of I-55 - a few degrees below normal for early February.

As the surface high shifts east into the Ohio Valley, winds will pick back up from the southeast this evening to advect a milder (though still seasonably dry) airmass into the region. Highs Sunday will hence run about 10 degrees warmer, again warmest in west- central IL where temperatures at the top of the shallow mixed layer (around 950mb) will be mildest. A mid level trough will pass through the east-central/southern Plains and into the Tennessee River Valley during the evening, ahead of which we'll have plenty of low clouds, with even a small (10-15%) chance of some flurries or sleet beginning mid morning.

More pronounced warming is forecast Monday into Tuesday as ridging strengthens across the nation's midsection. A lee cyclone developing across the Northern High Plains will track across the Upper Midwest and drag a weak cold front through the area sometime on Tuesday. Ahead of that front, temperatures should climb solidly into the 50s Monday west of I-55 and area-wide on Tuesday; depending on timing, temperatures may even make a run for 60 in spots on Tuesday, with NBM suggesting the highest chances (30-40%) south of a roughly Macomb to Lincoln to Effingham line.

***** ON AND OFF PRECIP CHANCES TUESDAY AND BEYOND *****

With the aforementioned front, potential will exist for some precip, though chances have decreased from the previous forecast as forcing remains displaced to our north. Our southern counties (near/south of I-70) will stand the highest chance (40-50%) for seeing measurable rain late Tuesday into Wednesday, as the front stalls or washes out there and energy emanating from a southern stream disturbance over the Deep South grazes southern IL. Limited (if any) instability will result in low chances for thunder and very low (less than 2%) chances for severe weather.

The northern stream jet remains near or just north of our local area through the end of the week, with one or more disturbances sparking at least slight (20%) precip chances at times. The best opportunity appears to be sometime Thursday into Friday, with storm track and time of day playing critical roles in determining p-types in any given location. With a myriad of model solutions on the evolution of these weather-makers, we'll monitor this period carefully, though confidence in any one outcome is too low to sound alarm bells at this point. In the temperature department, middle of the road guidance suggests highs in the low 40s and lows in the upper 20s Wednesday through Friday.

Bumgardner

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Sunday Morning) Issued at 535 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

As high pressure shifts east across the area, winds will switch from north-northeasterly this morning to southeasterly during the afternoon, with speeds generally 5-9 kt. Mid-high clouds will increase as a weak disturbance approaches this afternoon and evening, with some lower (3-5kft) VFR ceilings possible (30-50% chance) towards the end of the forecast period.

Bumgardner

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.