textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of wintry precipitation will occur tonight into early Monday morning. Snowfall will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a Rushville to Paris line...with a narrow ribbon of potentially up to 3 inches along a Jacksonville to Mattoon line.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. The highest probability for severe weather (greater than a 15% chance) will focus from northeast Texas into the Ozarks.

- Beneficial rainfall is on tap for central and southeast Illinois over the next week. The 00z Mar 1 LREF indicates a 50-70% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain from today through next Sunday morning along and south of a Quincy to Bloomington line.

..Beneficial Rainfall Next Week

While the severe weather risk remains uncertain, confidence is growing that widespread beneficial rainfall will arrive across central Illinois next week. The synoptic pattern will feature favorable deep-layer W/SW flow, ample northward moisture transport from the Gulf, and a series of short-wave troughs interacting with a nearly stationary frontal boundary. The end result will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week. While model QPF fields vary, all solutions are pointing to much-needed rain across the entire region. It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals:however, the 00z LREF indicates a nearly 100% chance of greater than 1 inch across the entire KILX CWA through next Sunday morning...and a 50-70% of more than 2 inches along and south of a Quincy to Bloomington line.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning) Issued at 546 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An area of MVFR ceilings continues to push westward across the I-57 corridor early this morning...with 1130z/530am satellite imagery showing the leading edge of the clouds nearly reaching KDEC. Based on satellite timing tools, have spread MVFR to KDEC by 12z and to KBMI by 13z. After that, the westward progression of the low clouds will slow and the HRRR/RAP indicate they will erode toward midday. As a result, have returned all sites to VFR by 17z. Mid/high clouds will prevail through the afternoon and evening before an approaching disturbance spreads light snow across parts of the region tonight. CAMs continue to shift the precip shield southward, so have opted to keep both KPIA and KBMI dry with VFR ceilings/visbys tonight. Further south at the I-72 terminals, have spread light snow into KSPI by 03z, then further east to KCMI by 05z. The snow will quickly shift E/SE of the TAF sites before dawn: however, MVFR ceilings will linger along/south of I-72 through midday Monday. Winds will initially be NE at around 10kt this morning, then will veer to E and increase to 10-15kt this afternoon through tonight.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.