textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- While some sprinkles or very light rain showers can be expected today north of I-72/Danville, a general dry pattern will continue the rest of the work week.

- Rain chances for the weekend have increased, mainly concentrated on Saturday night in areas south of I-72/Danville.

- Increasingly mild weather will continue well into next week, with high temperatures in the 60s likely by Tuesday.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Main forecast challenge remains with the weekend storm system. On the broader range, the global deterministic models are settling in on the upper low tracking from eastern Texas into northern Mississippi by midday Sunday, with a fairly sharp northern edge to the rain shield. The GFS keeps it south of I-70 in our area, while the European and Canadian models are closer to the I-72 corridor. However, about half of the European ensembles do bring some light rain as far north as I-80. Blended guidance has increased rain chances Saturday night to about 60% or higher south of a Jacksonville to Paris line. Rainfall amounts have gone up as well, though the spread between the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles is fairly large (upwards of 1-1.2 inches south of I-70). The LREF grand ensemble spread is about half that.

The overall period still looks to be well above mid February normals, with high temperatures topping out in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday. The next storm system looks to track well to our northwest, keeping us on the dry and breezier side to go along with the midweek warmth.

Geelhart

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning) Issued at 502 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours, with ceilings mainly in the 7-10kft range. While a few light showers can't be ruled out today, they should result in little impact to aviation.

Geelhart

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.