textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy conditions to occur into this evening over central and southeast IL. Southerly winds gusting 25-35 mph this afternoon, will still gust in the 20s this evening after sunset. - Periodic shower chances and a few thunderstorms will return Thursday through next Wednesday, though rain chances will be lower Friday night into Sunday morning. The risk of severe storms will remain low until early next week. Heavier rains appear more likely Tuesday into Wednesday of next week where NBM has a 40-60% chance of over 1 inch of rain across CWA.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

The 19Z/2 pm surface map shows 1006 mb low pressure over nw WI with a cold front into nw parts of Iowa and KS. Breezy south winds gusting 20-35 mph was giving warmer temps in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Some patches of mainly high clouds were over central IL with more sunshine in nw and se parts of IL. Radar mosaic shows a few bands of light rain showers over central IA ahead of the cold front.

Latest CAMs bring the cold front se into nw IL late tonight and accompanied by a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms moving into the IL river valley during overnight. Milder lows overnight in the low to mid 50s with breezy south/sw winds especially this evening and increasing cloud cover. The front to hover near northern CWA on Thu and have 20-30% chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms from I-72 north mainly Thu afternoon. Not as windy Thu with frontal boundary nearby through east central and se IL may still see breezy sw winds. Mild highs thu in lower 70s northern CWA and mid to upper 70s from Quincy to Lincoln to Champaign south which likely stays in warm sector Thu.

Cold front to make a move se over central IL during Thu night and thru southeast IL during Friday. Will likely see a period of showers and some thunderstorms spreading se over central IL during Thu night and into southeast IL on Friday and Fri evening. Rainfall amounts of half to three quarter inches possible over northern/nw CWA while generally less than a quarter inch from I-72 south, with southeast IL closer to a tenth inch. Cooler highs Friday range form around 60F northern CWA to 70-75F in southeast IL from I-70 southeast with Lawrence county the warmest.

High pressure building into the Great Lakes late this week to keep front and better chances of showers/thunderstorms south/sw of CWA Saturday and Sat night. Cooler lows Fri night in the low to mid 40s in central IL (upper 30s possible ne of I-74) and upper 40s to near 50F in southeast IL. Seasonably highs Sat in the low to mid 60s from Lincoln and Champaign north and lower 70s south of I-70.

A stronger storm system off the West Coast late this week, to move into the Western States early next week, and IL getting into an unsettled sw upper level flow. Strong southerly flow develops Sunday with gusts 25-40 mph and warming temps into the upper 70s/lower 80s over much of CWA with dewpoints increasing into the upper 50s/lower 60s. Have chances of showers/thunderstorms into areas from I-55 west Sunday afternoon and then 40-60% chances over much of CWA overnight Sunday night into Mon morning. CSU-MLP has 5-15% risk of severe storms over IL river valley Sunday afternoon/Sunday night, while SPC Day5 outlook keeps 15% risk sw of MO. Warm again on Monday with highs in upper 70s/lower 80s and more humid with dewpoints in the 60s. Storm system gets closer to IL during Monday night and Tue with another round of showers and thunderstorms likely. SPC Day6 outlook for Mon/Mon night has 15% or greater severe storms over west central and NW IL, while CSU has 15% or greater risk from I-55 west and 5-15% risk east of I-55. SPC day7 15% risk for Tue and Tue night is just sw of IL while CSU-MLP has 15% or greater risk over much of central IL and 5-15% risk in southeast IL. Increased gulf moisture early next week to give better chance of seeing heavier rainfall especially Tue into Wed where NBM has 40-60% chance of over 1 inch of rain over much of CWA.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A frontal boundary will approach central IL from the NW overnight, looking to stall near KPIA by morning. Scattered -shra are expected near the front, as well as 45-50 kt SW wind at 2000 ft AGL producing low level wind shear. Scattered SHRA/TSRA are expected to develop again near the frontal boundary late Thursday afternoon, and have incorporated PROB30 for TSRA at KPIA and KBMI from 22Z-02Z. Higher chances for thunderstorms are expected after the current TAF period ends as a disturbance propagates along the front and eventually pushes it southward. Winds S-SW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts ahead of the front, although decreasing to under 10 kts near the front.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.