textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A risk for damaging wind gusts will persist along and north of the I-72 corridor through 2am.

- While thunderstorms will weaken below severe limits after 2am, training cells will lead to a Marginal Risk (5-15% chance) of mainly urban flash flooding along and south of I-72 through daybreak.

- A strong cold front will bring a return to winter-like conditions early next week. There is an 80-100% chance of low temperatures dropping into the teens by Monday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 113 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low pressure will track through the Northern Plains/Upper Midwest Thursday night...perhaps triggering a few showers as far south as the I-74 corridor. Once the low passes, a return to mild and dry conditions with highs in the middle to upper 50s is anticipated for Friday. After another dry day on Saturday, a stronger and more southerly tracking low will move into the Midwest on Sunday. While there are still some timing/track differences among the models, the 00z Mar 11 GFS shows MUCAPEs of 200-300J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear increasing to greater than 60kt by Sunday afternoon. As a result, the Colorado State machine learning algorithm indicates a 5-15% chance for severe weather. Current forecast includes showers and a slight chance for thunder late Saturday night into Sunday, but the thunder chances may need to be increased if trends continue.

Once the Sunday system passes, deep-layer northwesterly flow will bring a chunk of very cold Canadian air southward into the Midwest early next week. GFS 850mb temps drop into the -10 to -15C range by Monday, supporting high temperatures in the lower to middle 30s. The coldest readings will arrive by Monday night as high pressure leads to excellent radiational cooling conditions. The 00z NBM suggests a high probability (80-100% chance) of low temperatures dipping into the teens by early Tuesday morning.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Wednesday Night) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage overnight with the strongest storms expected during this time. Isolated severe storms will be possible during this time as well along with some heavy rain potential. This activity should transition to more showers with isolated thunderstorms after about 12z Wednesday morning with the showers becoming more isolated through Wednesday afternoon. Outside of any thunderstorms, MVFR and IFR conditions will settle into the area overnight into Wednesday morning as a cold front drop south. Gusts during the day will likely be 25 to 35 mph.

WFO FSD

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.