textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of very light rain possibly mixed with snow will occur along and south of a Macomb to Decatur line early this morning. No snow accumulation is expected.

- Windy and much warmer weather will be on tap for Wednesday as southerly winds gusting 25-30mph help push afternoon highs into the upper 60s and lower 70s.

- Periodic rain chances will return Thursday through the weekend: however, the severe weather potential will remain very low until early next week.

..Periodic Rain Chances Late in the Week

The cold front will slowly sag southward Wednesday night into Thursday: however, it will lose forward momentum as it becomes parallel with the zonal flow pattern. As a result, rain chances will be confined to locations along/north of I-72 late Wednesday night through Thursday. As a short-wave trough interacts with the boundary, showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous Thursday night into Friday morning as the boundary slips a bit further southward. 00z Apr 7 models are in better agreement that the front will sink south of central Illinois and essentially wash out Friday night/Saturday...as the deepest moisture/instability pools further W/SW across the Southern Plains. While the NBM still features low chance PoPs (20-40%) Friday night through Sunday, think conditions will primarily be dry during that time. Am more concerned about showers and potentially strong/severe thunderstorms coming into the picture early next week as the instability axis across the Plains shifts E/NE into the region. Models still disagree about the timing of a potential low pressure system and its associated cold front: however, both the GFS and ECMWF strongly suggest a more active period of weather next Monday/Tuesday. An early look at the NCAR/NSSL/Colorado State Machine learning algorithms shows severe weather probabilities increasing to 5-15% by Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

VFR ceilings have overspread all of central Illinois early this morning...with an area of light precip trying to work its way toward KSPI. 1030z/530am radar imagery shows a band of weak echoes from KUIN southeastward to K1H2. Based on the positioning of the band and the presence of a very dry boundary layer, have opted to maintain PROB30 for -RA/SN but drop the brief period of MVFR ceiling at KSPI. As forcing weakens, the band will gradually dissipate by mid-morning, followed by cloudy skies and dry conditions for the remainder of the 12z TAF period. Winds will initially be E/NE with gusts to around 20kt this morning, then will veer to SE toward sunset.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM CDT this morning for ILZ029-031-037- 038-043>046-055-057.