textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Confidence is low regarding location of wintry precipitation from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. There is a 20-40% chance of greater than 1" of snow at any given location north of I-72.

- Wintry precipitation could return from late this weekend into early next week (30-50% chance).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Gusty south winds persist across central and southeast Illinois early this afternoon within a tight pressure gradient ahead of a trough across Wisconsin and Iowa, stretching back across the central Plains. Temperatures have been somewhat slow to warm given the extensive cloud cover. Despite this, still seeing some areas in eastern IA/MO that have reached the upper 40s/50s F. Concurrently, we could see RH values drop below 30% for a brief time late this afternoon before sunset, particularly south and west of Lincoln. The fire SPS should cover this window.

Following a cold frontal passage late tonight, attention then turns to the chances for wintry precipitation from Wednesday night into Thursday morning. A few solutions (including the 12z GFS) maintain a band of 1-3" of snow in the vicinity of I-74 associated with frontogenesis around 700 mb, but if anything today's model guidance gives us lower confidence in location of precipitation. The 12z HREF mean places the axis of 0.10-0.20" liquid equivalent precip from about Havana to Paris which, given the decreasing snow ratios/warmer air with southward extent, would likely lead to less snow within the band overall. Should the location of the band ultimately end up being near/north of I-74, snow amounts would be on the higher end. Additionally, toward early Thursday morning a handful of forecast soundings near I-72 indicate a loss of cloud ice. Though this is not the majority of solutions, we'll need to monitor for a chance of very light freezing drizzle/rain.

A cold front is forecast to push into central Illinois early this coming weekend, with multiple short wave troughs potentially moving through the flow early next week. It's early to pinpoint details as far as precipitation type, location, and amounts with these features, but anticipate a more active pattern with chances for precipitation next week. The chance of 24 hour precipitation amounts greater than 0.5" on both Monday and Wednesday is 20-30%. Instances of wintry precipitation are more likely early in the week, with rain becoming more likely by mid-week.

AAT

AVIATION

(For the 00z TAFs through 00z Wednesday Evening) Issued at 503 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated at all TAF sites through 00z Thursday. SW winds will lose gustiness early this evening, with winds gradually veering west and then northwest from 03-07z, associated with a dry cold frontal passage. A band of VFR clouds (around 10 kft) is anticipated to move from north- south through the TAF sites through about 07z ahead of the front. Behind the front, mid level clouds will clear with mainly high cirrus expected through Wed afternoon.

25

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.