textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog will develop along and north of a Lacon...to Bloomington...to Champaign line early this morning.

- A Red Flag Warning is in effect for most locations along and west of I-55 this afternoon. Burning is highly discouraged due to gusty southwesterly winds, relative humidity values dropping below 25%, and antecedent dry conditions.

- A storm system will bring a period of light snow to much of central Illinois Sunday night. There is a 20-40% of minor impacts along and north of I-70.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 332 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

As a short-wave trough traverses the country and interacts with the stationary baroclinic zone, a period of light wintry precipitation will develop across central Illinois Sunday night into Monday morning. As was the case with the previous system, models have gradually been shifting the weekend wave slightly further south with each run. CAMs do not extend to that time range yet: however, the 06z NAM is also showing a southward track that would result in mostly snow focused on the southern two-thirds of the KILX CWA. Will need to see further evidence of the southward shift from other models before making any final decisions in that direction...but for now the latest Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index (PWSSI) from WPC shows a 20-40% of minor impacts everywhere north of the I-70 corridor. At this time, it seems reasonable to expect a minor accumulation of wet snow and potential travel impacts for the Monday morning commute.

After a winter dominated by W/NW upper flow, a shift to W/SW flow will take hold early next week and potentially linger for the next few weeks. As a result, confidence is growing that beneficial rainfall will materialize across central Illinois as we head into March. While its still too early to give specific amounts, a series of storm systems interacting with the stalled frontal boundary parallel to the W/SW flow will bring numerous rain chances Monday through Thursday. Stay tuned for details.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 12z TAFs through 12z Saturday Morning) Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Visibilities have improved along the I-74 corridor over the past couple of hours: however, am still expecting minor restrictions of 5-6 miles to persist until after sunrise. Winds are currently S/SW at less than 10kt, but will increase substantially toward midday as the pressure gradient tightens. The strongest winds will arrive by mid to late afternoon as higher momentum air from aloft is mixed to the surface. Based on the HRRR/RAP forecast, have introduced 20-25kt gusts everywhere by 17z...then have increased them to 25-30kt between 20z and 22z. Winds will decrease as a cold front arrives toward sunset, then will veer to NW and drop to less than 10kt after the 03z-04z time frame.

Barnes

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 6 PM CST this evening for ILZ027>031-036-037-040>042-047>051.

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for ILZ030-031- 038-043>046.