textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A hard freeze will occur tonight as low temperatures bottom out in the middle 20s. Any sensitive early spring vegetation should be protected from potential freeze damage.

- After a quiet weekend, unsettled weather will return next week. There is a 40-60% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain across much of central Illinois next Tuesday through Friday.

..Unsettled Weather Next Week

Cool/dry weather will prevail on Saturday with highs in the upper 40s and lower 50s. As high pressure shifts further east of the region and southwesterly return flow resumes in earnest, temperatures will rebound well into the 60s on Sunday...then into the 70s and 80s by next Monday and Tuesday. As has been seen by the past several model cycles, the upper flow pattern will transition from northwesterly on Saturday to zonal or weakly southwesterly by early next week. As a short-wave trough traverses the country, it will pull the next significant cold front into the region by late Tuesday. Previous models displayed typical timing variances at that range: however, the 12z Mar 27 suite has come into much better agreement...coalescing around a Tuesday night FROPA. Latest NBM guidance is dry for Monday, followed by high chance to likely PoPs Tuesday afternoon and night. Given the warm/humid airmass in place and early indications from the GFS of SBCAPEs reaching 1000-1500J/kg, will need to keep an eye on potential severe weather Tuesday afternoon/evening. The latest guidance from the Colorado State Machine Learning algorithm has increased the severe weather probabilities into the 15-30% range accordingly.

The cold front is then expected to drop southward into the Ohio River Valley and stall as it becomes parallel to the upper flow. After that, one or more waves of low pressure may ride along the boundary...providing periodic rain chances for the rest of the week. While its still too early to predict exact amounts, confidence is growing that beneficial rainfall will occur across all of central and southeast Illinois. In fact, the 00z LREF shows a 40-60% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain next Tuesday through Friday across all but the far NW KILX CWA.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Skies will be mostly clear for most of the 00Z TAF period as high pressure settles over the area. Winds NW 10-15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts, decreasing this evening and becoming light and variable by 07Z-11Z. South winds 8-12 kts developing by 18Z.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.