textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Light, hit-or-miss snow showers today: Scattered snow showers may produce up to 1 to 2 inches in spots, with some areas seeing little or no accumulation. Brief snow squalls, especially during the evening commute, could cause localized visibility drops and slick travel.

- Dangerous cold is the main concern: A persistent cold pattern will bring single-digit lows and below-zero wind chills Sunday through Tuesday, with only occasional light snow and no major winter storms.

UPDATE

Issued at 1050 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Some minor adjustments to forecast into tonight with chances of snow showers and temperatures. A band of light snow and flurries was along and se of a Danville to Effingham line, and some of this is virga with dry air at lower levels with dewpoints in low to mid 20s from I-55 east. This very light pcpn was associated with an occluded front pushing toward the Wabash river around 18z/noon today. Otherwise much of CWA is dry after received half to 1 inch of snowfall last night. Breezy west to SW winds 10-20 mph and a few gusts 22-32 mph was bringing in milder air with temps 32-38F over much of CWA at 10 am. An arctic front pushing se into central parts of Iowa and WI during midday, will push se thru central IL during this evening and pass thru southeast IL early overnight. There is still some potential of brief moderate to heavy snow bursts and possible snow squalls late this afternoon and evening from Peoria and Bloomington south. Though this setup is not quite as strong as this past Wed morning was in northeast and east central IL. Snow Squall parameter levels peak at 1-2 late this afternoon and evening, while CAPES peak from 25-45 j/kg (just below the 50 j/kg threshold). Milder highs today in the upper 30s/lower 40s (mildest sw CWA) with temps falling late this afternoon over IL river valley and over rest of CWA during this evening as arctic front pass thru. Blustery west to SW winds to turn nw behind arctic front during tonight with gusts 25-30 mph.

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DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Multiple spokes of vorticity are expected to pinwheel through the broad cyclonic flow aloft today and tonight, resulting in scattered snow showers across the region. Recent ensemble guidance (HREF and REFS) suggests limited QPF (LPMM), generally under 0.05 inches, though isolated pockets could see up to 0.15 inches over any six-hour period.

Applying the central Illinois climatological snow-to-liquid ratio of 12:1 suggests a new snowfall accumulation of 0.5 to 1.5 inches. This is generally a sub-advisory-type snow event. However, impacts depend on the timing and intensity of the precipitation. For example, if localized snow squalls develop during the evening commute, as a few of the CAMs suggest, then the chance of minor travel disruptions increases due to sharply reduced visibility over short distances and slippery roads. But, as is typical with showery precipitation, some areas may not see any new accumulation today.

Below-normal temperatures will dominate the forecast period, driven by a strongly negative East Pacific Oscillation (EPO) which is expected to persist through the middle of next week before moderating. This pattern will establish high-latitude ridging over Alaska, displacing Arctic air southward into the Great Lakes and eventually central Illinois this weekend and early next week.

The primary concern will be dangerously cold temperatures. Lows are projected to drop into the single digits, resulting in wind chills falling below zero each morning from Sunday through Tuesday. Temperatures are anticipated to return to more seasonable conditions toward the end of next week.

An active storm track will coincide with this cold air, bringing a wavetrain of disturbances across the Upper Midwest. These quick- hitting, clipper-like systems may occasionally impact central Illinois directly; however, they are not expected to develop into significant mid-latitude cyclones, and therefore are not forecasted to produce heavy snowfall over the next week.

MJA

AVIATION

(For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon) Issued at 1155 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Broken to overcast MVFR ceilings are lifting to VFR ceilings early this afternoon with ceilings 3-5k ft becoming more common and larger breaks in low clouds to occur during 1st half of the afternoon. CMI still has MVFR ceiling but should lift to VFR in next hour or so. An approaching arctic cold front over central WI/IA to bring isolated to scattered snow showers starting between 21-23Z (PIA first) and diminish late evening. Latest CAMs showing best chance of these south of PIA and BMI to have prob30 groups for MVFR conditions along I-72 TAF sites at SPI, DEC and CMI. West to SW winds to veer WNW with passage of arctic cold front during early to mid evening with gusts 18-26 kts expected at times into Sat. HRRR is showing low end VFR or high end MVFR ceilings during tonight and especially on Saturday when scattered flurries possible with strong mid/upper level trof and associated 525 decameter 500 mb low moving into central IL by Sat afternoon.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.