textproduct: Central Illinois
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Increasing heat and humidity today and Monday will yield heat index values between 100 and 105 degrees, particularly in areas south of the Interstate 74 corridor.
- Late-night strong to severe thunderstorms may dive south into the region tonight and Monday night, bringing a 15% to 30% chance for damaging winds.
- A broader threat for severe weather develops Tuesday into Wednesday, with damaging winds and hail forecast along an advancing cold front.
- Cooler conditions arrive Thursday, bringing high temperatures back into the upper 70s and lower 80s.
LONG TERM
(Thursday through Friday)
The cold front is forecast to push south of the region by Thursday, bringing notable relief as high temperatures drop into the upper 70s and lower 80s. However, model guidance continues to diverge regarding the post-frontal air mass evolution. The GFS/GEFS suite drives the front cleanly south, ushering in a cooler, drier continental polar (cP) air mass through Saturday. Conversely, the ECMWF/EPS models favor a quicker progression, lifting the front back northward across Illinois by Friday and reintroducing stifling humidity and thunderstorm chances. Given the uncertainty, rain chances remain in the forecast through late week due to the CWA's proximity to the stalled baroclinic zone.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 547 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026
Southerly winds will increase ahead of a cold front, with occasional gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon. Otherwise, high clouds will stream across the regional terminals through midday as upstream thunderstorm clusters diminish. A high degree of uncertainty then remains for late tonight regarding thunderstorm development. For now, we have added PROB30 groups across the board for -TSRA mention, mainly between 04z-10z.
ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027-036-040-041-047>051. Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Monday for ILZ036-040-041- 047>052-061>063-066>068-071>073.
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