textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- A period of wintry precipitation will occur tonight into early Monday morning. Snowfall will range from 1 to 2 inches along and south of a Rushville to Paris line...with a narrow ribbon of potentially up to 3 inches along a Jacksonville to Mattoon line.

- Strong thunderstorms are possible Wednesday. The highest probability for severe weather (greater than a 15% chance) will focus from northeast Texas into the Ozarks.

- Beneficial rainfall is on tap for central and southeast Illinois over the next week. The 00z Mar 1 LREF indicates a 50-70% chance of greater than 2 inches of rain from today through next Sunday morning along and south of a Quincy to Bloomington line.

..Beneficial Rainfall Next Week

While the severe weather risk remains uncertain, confidence is growing that widespread beneficial rainfall will arrive across central Illinois next week. The synoptic pattern will feature favorable deep-layer W/SW flow, ample northward moisture transport from the Gulf, and a series of short-wave troughs interacting with a nearly stationary frontal boundary. The end result will be periods of showers and thunderstorms through the week. While model QPF fields vary, all solutions are pointing to much-needed rain across the entire region. It is still too early to pinpoint exact totals:however, the 00z LREF indicates a nearly 100% chance of greater than 1 inch across the entire KILX CWA through next Sunday morning...and a 50-70% of more than 2 inches along and south of a Quincy to Bloomington line.

Barnes

AVIATION

(For the 06z TAFs through 06z Sunday Night) Issued at 1014 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

MVFR ceilings currently over northern IL to NW Indiana, are forecast to shift southwest tonight, due to northeast winds in the lower atmosphere. Much of the guidance now favors KBMI-KCMI-KDEC to to see the MVFR ceilings late tonight into Sunday morning. With lower probabilities of MVFR ceilings at KPIA-KSPI, only went with a SCT025 group there. Northeast winds will be persistent through the forecast, sustained at 10-15 kt with occasional gusts around 20 kt. A weather system moving in from the west Sunday evening will spread -SN and MVFR ceilings back into central IL. Higher probabilities of MVFR conditions are favored for the KSPI-KDEC- KCMI corridor.

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ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.