textproduct: Central Illinois

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will affect portions of central IL north of I-72 this morning, especially near and north of Peoria. Typical rainfall amounts should be under a quarter inch, but a isolated spots over an inch are possible.

- Dry fuels and low relative humidity will continue to provide an elevated risk for afternoon agricultural field fires through Saturday, especially southeast of the Illinois river.

- The remnants of Hurricane Isaias will approach southeastern Illinois Saturday night, bringing chances for light rain over east central and southeast Illinois late Saturday through Sunday morning. There is only a small chance (10 to 30 percent) for over a half inch of rainfall south of I-70 and areas to the north will very likely see under a quarter inch.

UPDATE

Issued at 944 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Showers and a few thunderstorms continue to drift east across west-central and northwest IL this morning aided by a weak upper wave. We'll see this activity weaken and shrink over the next few hours. Not expecting much to be left over by noon today in our area (central IL) as the cells reach a more stable environment and as the low level forcing lifts northward. Expect clearing skies and some heat with highs in the 80s today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

A shortwave producing thunderstorms over IA early this morning will move eastward into Illinois this morning, with scattered showers and thunderstorms likely near and north of Peoria, and a slight chance to just north of I-72. A low level jet and warm advection fueling this system has resulted in several storms producing 1 to 1.5 inch hail in IA, although 00Z ensemble forecast guidance suggests instability should diminish through the night before it arrives in parts of central IL, and we will likely see less intense thunderstorm activity. This system should lift to the northeast this afternoon, with precipitation ending across central IL by around noon. Rainfall amounts will typically be under a quarter inch, but heavier storms could drop isolated amounts over an inch.

The next precipitation feature of note will be from the remnants of Hurricane Isaias. Current track forecasts show this system will take a hard eastward turn south of the Ohio River, leaving dim prospects of getting significant rainfall in parts of central or southeast IL. 12Z ensemble forecast shows only a 10 to 30 percent chance of over a half inch south of I-70, and only a few percent chance for over an inch. North of I-70, although there is around a 30 percent or higher chance of measurable rain near and east of I-57, chances of anything over a quarter inch are generally only 10 to 20 percent.

A shortwave ridge behind Isaias will bring dry conditions from Sunday afternoon through Monday before a cold front trailing a shortwave passing by to the north brings a slight chance for showers and thunderstorms late Monday night into Tuesday. The post frontal airmass will remain conducive for rainfall with 30-50 pct PoPs expanding across the area Wednesday. A warm front arriving from the west on Thursday morning will further increase rain chances.

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm today with southerly flow and clearing skies bringing highs well into the 80s, which could rival records for a few locations. Temperatures will be down a few to several degrees Saturday and Sunday as cloudy conditions and a slightly cooler air mass associated with Isaias spread into the area. Monday will feature a quick surge of warm air ahead of the Monday night's cold front, as highs reach near record highs in the mid 80s to around 90. Following the cold front, temperatures should be down a few to several degrees, out of record territory, but still well above normal. The first chance for near or below normal temperatures should hold off until Friday and beyond behind a late week cold front.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Scattered showers and a slight chance for a thunderstorm, producing local MVFR vsby, will affect KPIA and KBMI this morning until around 16Z, then VFR conditions are expected as this system exits the area to the northeast. KSPI, KDEC, and KCMI should remain south of the shower activity. Winds SE 4-8 kts this morning, increasing to 8-12 kts from the SSE by 15Z-18Z.

ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.