textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Greatest heavy rain threat has moved out of the region. So forecast transitioned into expectation through the weekend and into next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will be possible both today and Sunday as a couple of weak cold fronts move through the area.

2) A front stalled south of the region will keep a chance of afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms generally south of I-70 for the early part of the week with daytime temperatures rising above normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Low pressure along the Indiana-Ohio border will continue to track north northeast today. Warm front extending out from this low will be north of the entire forecast area by daybreak. While widespread showers have moved off to the north, there is continued scattered activity in the warm sector. Expect this to wane into the early morning hours but then start to increase in coverage once again with diurnal heating.

A weak cold front trailing the low will move across the region through the day. Some instability will develop northwards ahead of the front which could lead to some storms. The very moist atmosphere will still be in place, so this could result in some locally heavy rain from the Scioto Valley into northeast Kentucky. There are some signals that the environment could become marginally supportive for a tornado east of Columbus right ahead of the front.

A weak surface ridge will quickly pass across the region tonight with southerly flow returning by early Sunday morning. This will allow moisture to return, although perhaps not quite as rich as has been in place. Another weak cold front will move through in the afternoon and evening with more showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of it.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid level ridging will develop during the early part of the week, taking on a northwest-southeast orientation. With rising heights, expect to have warmer temperatures with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. At the surface, a front will be stalled out east-west just south of the region. This is in close enough proximity that diurnal convection will be possible across northern Kentucky and into southeast Indiana and southern Ohio on Monday and Tuesday, possibly getting a bit further north, closer to I-70 by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A warm front is lifting across the area to start the period. In addition to veering winds, showers are becoming scattered along with breaks within the lower deck of clouds. So this is resulting in conditions varying between MVFR and IFR.

Showers will continue to be possible until a weak cold front moves through between 12Z and 18Z. This will end any visibility restrictions, but it appears that ceilings will fall back to IFR immediately after the front moves through. But then ceilings will lift through the day and clouds may even scatter after 00Z. Winds will become southwest and eventually west with some gusts around 20 kt. Winds will become light and back to south southeast late in the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible late tonight into Sunday morning and then again late Sunday night into Monday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for OHZ055-056- 063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT early this morning for INZ066-073>075- 080.