textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Storms will return to the region Thursday evening into Thursday night. Some severe potential may evolve across parts of the area during this time.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably chilly air will remain entrenched across the region through Tuesday, with subfreezing temperatures likely for parts of the local area tonight. Sensitive or early-bloom vegetation may be impacted by the cold temperatures.

2) Above normal temperatures are again expected by Thursday ahead of the next front, which will progress through the area by Thursday night. Some storms are expected Thursday evening into early Thursday night along/ahead of this front. Some severe potential will likely evolve with this setup.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Cooler air has settled into the region, with highs today only topping out in the upper 40s to lower 50s amidst quite a bit of early-day cloud cover. Skies will trend a bit clearer late afternoon into early evening, so temps will make a late-day rally as clouds scatter out at least somewhat later in the daytime, especially near/W of I-75. Subfreezing temps are likely tonight into early Tuesday morning, particularly near/north of I-70 and in other rural/sheltered locales across the ILN FA. Skies will trend clearer after sunset, but may linger a bit into the night in parts of central OH. LL flow will subside as it goes more out of the E by late tonight. Highs on Tuesday will rebound into the mid/upper 50s area-wide.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A surge of unseasonably warm/moist air will arrive early Thursday morning, with some WAA-induced showers likely across at least parts of the local area (favored near the Tri-State) around daybreak as theta-e advection ramps up through the region. This warm/moist airmass will build into the region during the daytime Thursday before a front, associated with a weak sfc wave, nudges into the OH Vly by Thursday evening. This ENE-to-WSW oriented front will provide a focus for widespread shower/storm activity Thursday evening into early Thursday night before cooler air again settles back into the region by Friday into this upcoming weekend.

From a pattern perspective, the setup Thursday evening into Thursday night will likely lend itself to at least /some/ severe potential across parts of the OH Vly, particularly N of the OH Rvr. Various ML datasets, as well as SPC SWODY4, continue to highlight portions of the region for severe potential during this time period. This will occur as the midlevel ridge flattens across the south-central plains with S/W energy digging S across the Great Lakes. This will lead to enhanced mid/upper level flow in the OH Vly during this time. This better deep-layer shear, combined with a moistening LL profile leading to development of some SB-instby along/ahead of the southward-impinging front, should yield widespread, potentially organized, storm activity near the front past 00z Friday. The front will sag south through late evening into the predawn hours, eventually clearing the ILN FA toward daybreak. Although the severe threat will probably wane with southward extent later into the night, certainly the data suggests a parameter space conducive to strong/severe storm potential across parts of the area at some point near the FROPA. Strong convergence near the front will likely provide enough lift to generate and sustain this activity, with cloud-bearing flow nearly parallel to the focus for lift. This lends itself to some potential for brief training storms (i.e. storms moving repeatedly over the same areas), but specific details in this realm, as well the primary timing and specific favored hazards, will come into better focus in the coming days. Certainly the overlap of fairly favorable thermodynamics and kinematics will require close monitoring over the next few days.

The storms Thursday evening will transition to plain rain with the loss of instby as the boundary shifts S late into the night. Suppose that a brief RA/SN mix cannot be ruled out given the infiltration of much colder air in the post-frontal environment.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

CAA MVFR stratocu continues to blanket much of the region, although some breaks/scattering has already been seen across parts of the area. The cloud deck will continue to slowly scatter out, but it may take until almost sunset for this to happen, especially for KILN/KCMH/KLCK. Wrn locales such as KDAY/KCVG/KLUK will likely clear out and go VFR earlier, with a trend toward clearer skies by 00z across a larger part of the local area.

Some VFR stratocu may linger at KCMH/KLCK for several hours past sunset, but mainly some mid/high clouds are expected for most of the nighttime, but suppose some patchy stratocu may linger in central OH into the predawn hours.

FEW/SCT mid/high clouds can be expected during the daytime Tuesday. NW winds of 12-15kts, with gusts around 20kts, are expected through the afternoon before subsiding to around 5-10kts past 00z. Winds will go more out of the NE past 03z, going more out of the E by 12z and eventually out of the SE by 15z at around 5kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs, along with some thunderstorms, are expected Thursday evening and overnight. MVFR CIGs may linger into early Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.