textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Southerly flow allows for a warming trend as the week progresses. Temperatures will rise back above normal on Thursday, but this will be accompanied by rain ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will bring dry weather Friday and cooler temperatures. The cool down will be brief with temperatures warming above normal for the weekend. A low chance of rain returns late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Mid level flow backs westerly today with a southerly low level flow across the area between high pressure to our southeast and a weak front to our northwest. Expect a decent amount of sunshine with some thin high level clouds spilling into the region. Some low level moisture may advect into the south late in the day. The sunshine combined with southwest winds will boost high temperatures into the mid to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/

Clouds increase tonight and the southwest gradient tightens. Clouds and winds around 15 mph will keep milder than recent days. Lows tonight range from the upper 20s to the lower 30s.

A weakening mid level shortwave is forecast to move across the Great Lakes. A weak front drops into Ohio and loses its identity and will have little or no impact on our sensible weather. Wednesday will feature partly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. Expect highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Warm air advection will commence on Thursday as a stronger shortwave along with a frontal system approaches the middle Ohio Valley from the west. The surface low will remain well to the north from the Upper Midwest into southern Ontario, so our CWA will be firmly in the warm sector. Along with the rain, the tightening pressure gradient will cause winds to gust to around 30 mph out of the south.

The front will quickly shift through the area Thursday evening with gusty westerly winds arriving behind the front. Friday will be much cooler, with highs likely only reaching the 20s. However, this cold air mass will quickly exit as another progressive shortwave moves quickly across the northern tier of the United States this coming weekend.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions to start the TAF period with some thin high level clouds spilling into the area early this morning.

Band of low level moisture advects into the region into KCVG/KLUK around 15Z and KDAY/KILN around 16Z and KCMH/KLCK between 19Z and 20Z. This period of MVFR ceilings shifts off to the east late in the day into early evening - with VFR conditions returning.

A period of low level wind shear will be observed this evening as a 40-45kt low level jet develops over the area.

Southwest winds at less than 10 kts will increase to 10-12kts with gusts up to 20 kts this afternoon and continue into tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.