textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures are expected to remain near seasonal normals through the week and into the weekend. However, a subtle warming trend will ensue, bringing daytime highs back to the lower to middle 80s by the end of the work week.

An omega blocking pattern continues through much of the work week, maintaining a dry forecast as the Ohio Valley remains underneath the H5 ridge portion of this feature. However, there is some consensus amongst global models that we will finally observe some modifications in this omega block, allowing for an H5 trough to progress through the Midwest region. The forcing associated with this trough will introduce PoPs again to the forecast. Global models have slowed down the initial progression of this trough, suggesting that chances for showers/storms will likely arrive on Saturday, perhaps continuing into Sunday.

After the H5 trough ejects to our east this weekend, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the synoptic trends for next week. Thus, confidence is low on forecast details beyond Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions persist through the taf period. Main impact for today will be the stronger surface winds, with sustained northeasterly winds of 10-20 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. Winds will subside after sunset and remain below 10 kts through tomorrow.

OUTLOOK...Chance of thunderstorms Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.