textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No substantial changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Several rounds of showers through the weekend.
2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) Fairly stable mid level pattern with mean troughing across eastern North America. Tail end of an initial short wave along with a modest westerly low level jet and a weak east-west boundary could produce some showers tonight for areas north of I-70.
The next short wave will have a bit more amplitude and be able to push a weak cold front through the area Friday night, with a low possibly tracking along the front. This system will generate the most precipitation with amounts up to 1/2 inch possible. Instability looks quite limited, but cannot completely rule out some thunder.
Another weak wave and its surface reflection will move through Saturday night. But weak forcing along with limited moisture should keep precipitation pretty spotty.
The next short wave in the series will amplify as it dives southeast towards the area into the base of the long wave trough during the latter part of the weekend. Available moisture does not look overly impressive, but with stronger forcing there should be greater coverage of showers and possibly thunderstorms, mainly Sunday afternoon into the evening. At the moment rainfall amounts look like less than 1/4 inch.
KEY MESSAGE 2) The long wave trough will generally keep cooler conditions across the region. There will be a modest warm up to around normal from Friday night into Saturday night. But then temperatures will drop back below normal until the middle of next week.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Fog at KLUK will dissipate very early in the period. Beyond that VFR will prevail. High clouds will pass across the region this morning with a few cumulus developing with heating. These will diminish towards 00Z, but a 7-9kft deck will spread into the region tonight. Winds will increase this morning with gusts around 20 kt during the day. The winds will decrease towards 00Z and then back to the south.
OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday morning.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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