textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snow amounts and expanded the Winter Storm Watch across the entire forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gusty winds early this morning.

2) Snow likely this weekend.

3) Cold Temperatures this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Gusty winds early this morning.

A cold front will move east across the region through the pre dawn hours. Behind the front, winds will shift around to west. This will be accompanied by a 40-50 knot low level jet. In the better mixing behind the front, some stronger wind gusts in the the 30 to 40 mph range will be possible through daybreak or so.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Snow likely this weekend.

Accumulating snow is likely this weekend. Snowfall chances increase Saturday afternoon, peak Saturday night into Sunday morning, and slowly decline on Sunday. Exact snow amounts are highly uncertain. However, at least some degree of travel impacts are likely Saturday night into Sunday.

The forecast remains extremely challenging due to a multitude of reasons. First off, very cold and dry arctic air will be in place on Saturday morning. Moisture will need to surge poleward in order for appreciable snowfall to occur which can be difficult with a strong arctic high in place. With that said, moisture aloft will increase Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning when 850hPa winds shift to the south although the magnitude is uncertain. Second, the amplitude and exact track of the 850hPa disturbance are not resolved and these will greatly impact the amount of snowfall via frontogenetic interactions aloft. Lastly, the statistical ensemble guidance has been far from a consensus. Given all these meteorological and statistical uncertainties, the forecast is extremely difficult.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Cold Temperatures this weekend into next week.

A cold front pushes south through the area on Friday morning. Well below normal temperatures build in behind the front through the weekend into early next week. Multiple periods of temperatures near zero along with wind chills below zero are expected. Currently, Friday night/Saturday morning, Sunday night/Monday morning, and Monday night/Tuesday morning are likely to be the coldest timeframe.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Some high clouds will be possible at times today as surface high pressure builds into the region today. Mid level clouds will increase tonight ahead of a cold front that will move into the area late tonight. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. OUTLOOK...Snow and IFR to LIFR conditions are likely Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Sunday night for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.