textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased precipitation chances and increased thunderstorm wording for Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record high temperatures today and severe weather tonight.

2) Active weather pattern for next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Near record high temperatures today and severe weather tonight.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will move across the area late in the overnight hours and into the daytime morning hours. After this moves off to the east, southwesterly flow will pick up and clouds will decrease. This combination will allow for temperatures to rise to near record highs if not record high temperatures for today. Records and current temperature forecast is below.

The records for Thursday 3/26 CVG 82 set in 1907, Current forecast high 80. DAY 81 set in 1907, Current forecast high 79. CMH 80 set in 1907, Current forecast high 76.

Much of the rest of the daytime hours will remain dry. Wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be likely during the afternoon and early evening hours.

Thunderstorms will move into the region during the evening hours and into the overnight. Damaging wind, large hail, and isolated tornadoes will all be possible with the greatest threat near and north of Interstate 70. With some west to east orientation of the storms will also have to watch for the potential for heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns as well. Will continue to highlight these threats in the HWO. Most of the precipitation will move out of the area Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Active weather pattern for next week.

After dry conditions for the weekend, an active weather pattern develops for next week with daily precipitation chances from Monday through Thursday. Precipitation chances will be isolated to scattered in nature for Monday into Tuesday. Wednesday a front lays out over the area bringing higher confidence in precipitation coverage. This starts to lift northward on Thursday, before a cold front starts to work into the region Thursday night.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rain will move across the TAF sites this morning. Most of the embedded thunder is expected to stay south of the TAF sites and therefore left out of the TAFs. There will be the potential for some LLWS this morning.

After the morning precipitation pushes east, winds will pick up and become gusty and cloud cover will start to decrease. Additional showers and thunderstorms are then expected to hold off until the evening and into the overnight hours. Timed in thunderstorms into the later parts of the TAF period. In addition, some additional LLWS will be possible tonight.

Vsbys will have the potential to be reduced with shower and thunderstorm activity. Cigs will start to lower tonight.

OUTLOOK...Lingering MVFR ceilings possible early Friday. MVFR conditions with thunderstorms possible Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.