textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog advisory has been issued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dense fog into the early morning.

2) Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the week.

3) Showers and some thunderstorms will return to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Dense fog has develop across much of the region east of I-75. There is a weak cold front and associated band of clouds that is slowly moving eastwards. It appears that as this occurs that visibilities will improve, although confidence in how that evolves is low to medium. So the dense fog advisory may be able to be trimmed on its western extent before morning. Further east, visibility will improve by 9 am.

KEY MESSAGE 2) With clouds decreasing today, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, getting back close to normal. Rising mid level heights through mid week will allow for warming in the atmospheric column. So temperatures will be able to rise above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Heights will get suppressed late in the week as a long wave trough develops from eastern Canada into the northeast US. This will lead to a cooling trend heading into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Boundary moving across the area this morning will become elongated and oriented more east northeast-west southwest this afternoon. Most likely it will be just south of the far southeastern part of the forecast area during peak heating. As isolated to widely scattered convection develops near the boundary, cannot rule out a bit of this activity occurring in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio.

The front will start to return north on Tuesday, getting to near the Ohio River by the end of the day. Some further northward progress will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly getting to near I-70. Expect greater coverage of diurnal activity both days as weak energy cuts through an elongated mid level ridge. And there could even be some lingering showers through Tuesday night in between these diurnal peaks.

Precipitable water is forecast to increase to over 150 percent of normal by Wednesday. So some localized heavy rain is possible. But most indications are that the band of showers and thunderstorms will be progressive, getting shunted southwards through Wednesday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A weak front is slowly moving through the area during the early part of the period. There is a band of clouds with MVFR ceilings associated with this. Ahead of the front, very moist low levels and light winds has resulted in dense fog with LIFR visibilities and ceilings (vertical visibility). As the front makes its way eastward, believe that the MVFR ceilings will result in visibility improving quite a bit before daybreak, although confidence in how that evolves is only low to medium. Behind the front there could be some substantial breaks in the clouds but with heating expect further cloud development. So MVFR ceilings are forecast to persist until finally lifting and scattering towards 18Z. VFR will then prevail except for the potential for fog to start developing again at KLUK late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR visibilities possible late tonight into Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-046- 053>056-062>065-071>074-077>082-088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ075-080.