textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend before we dry out again early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) Daytime highs will begin to trend a few degrees warmer heading into the end of the week/weekend, with most of our CWA climbing back into the 80s by Friday. In addition, the air mass will start to become more humid as dewpoints increase back into the 60s this weekend. As a more tropical-like air mass hangs around, we will go through stretch where overnight lows remain in the 60s.
Models continue to hone in on the potential for showers/storms this weekend. This is in response to a breakdown of the omega block, allowing for an H5 trough to swing through the Ohio Valley. CAMs will help provide more insight on coverage/timing, but global models and ensembles are trending towards having the best coverage in precip Saturday night into Sunday. QPF footprint seems to be lowest between the Ohio River and I-70 corridor as the bulk of precip will fall during the overnight hours there. While some instability will be present, lower CAPE values overnight will result in fewer thunderstorms and thus limit the heavier, convective rainfall. There is some signal that the cold front will be slow enough that additional storms may fire off near/south of the Ohio River on Sunday, but will have to monitor trends in the frontal passage.
After the cold frontal passage this weekend, models are beginning to show more consensus in the redevelopment of an H5 ridge across the Midwest region. This will likely result in another warm and dry start to the work week.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR conditions prevail. Surface winds expected to remain around 5 kts or less through the taf period, veering to the southwest after daybreak Thursday. Some cu may develop Thursday afternoon, but primary clouds will just be some high level cirrus.
OUTLOOK...There is a chance for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.