textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made minor adjustments to snowfall values. Added scattered snow showers to Monday and blowing snow. Decreased temperatures during the week. Issued extreme cold warning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant winter storm continues across the region.

2) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak is expected for the region through the upcoming week, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant winter storm continues across the region.

Snow continues across the region this afternoon. Expect snow to continue into the evening hours. Additional accumulations will be possible. There will also be a mix of sleet and freezing rain across portions of northern Kentucky and the lower Scioto Valley in Ohio. Ice accumulations will be possible in these areas. Precipitation will generally taper off overnight, however some snow flurries or light snow showers will still be possible. During the day on Monday additional scattered snow showers are expected as an upper level disturbance works through. Cannot rule out some light snow accumulations and also reduced visibility with the snow. Have blowing snow mention in the forecast through this time.

Through 1 PM Sunday Cincinnati CVG has received 9.0 inches of snow, Dayton DAY 12.3 inches, and CMH Columbus 10.2 inches for the event so far.

2) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak is expected for the region through the upcoming week, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited through Saturday.

A significant prolonged arctic outbreak is expected for the area through this week. The longevity and magnitude of this pattern may rival some of the top-10 coldest/longest stretches on record across the area.

Anomalously-expansive and persistent mid/upper level troughing centered across the ern half of the CONUS will prevail through the week, with several embedded S/Ws providing reinforcing shots of arctic air into the Great Lakes and OH Vly regions into the upcoming weekend. This, combined with an expansive and very deep snowpack, which will remain largely unchanged for the foreseeable future, ensures long stretches of dangerous to extreme cold conditions through the next 5-7 days.

Arctic air will settle into the region by Monday into Monday night, with air temperatures dipping to the single digits below zero by daybreak Tuesday. This, combined with increased SW sfc flow into the morning, will result in wind chill values between -15F and -25F. As such, there is now enough confidence in the setup to warrant the issuance of an Extreme Cold Warning for the entirety of the local area, with the coldest temperatures and wind chill values near/north of I-70.

A system will pass to our N during the day Tuesday, prompting an increase in sfc flow out of the SW and some gusts on the order of 20- 25kts. However, this pressure gradient will relax into Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, allowing for favorable radiational cooling conditions, with lows again going subzero for most of the ILN FA and wind chill values generally between -10F and -20F.

With a reinforcing shot of arctic air into early Wednesday, temps will only rebound into the upper single digits into mid teens for Wednesday afternoon before again dipping below zero again overnight into Thursday. More of the same is expected Thursday night through Saturday before temperatures moderate ever-so-slightly into Sunday. Daily minimum wind chill values colder than -10F are expected each day Wednesday through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Snow is beginning to taper off from west to east, with some signs of improving CIGs behind the clearing snow. Occasional wind gusts will cause periods of blowing snow this evening and again tomorrow. MVFR CIGs and VIS break to VFR by the end of the period.

Northerly winds turn more northwesterly over the next couple of hours, becoming predominately westerly by 12Z Monday. Gusts up to 20 knots Monday afternoon.

For CVG, winds become more southwesterly after 00Z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR vsbys possible Monday night and Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for KYZ089>100. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for KYZ089>100. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM Monday to noon EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.