textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and some thunderstorms will occur into Saturday evening. There is potential for heavy rainfall into Saturday morning.

2) Hot and humid next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers, and a some embedded thunderstorms, have mainly been focused along the nose of nocturnal LLJ in southern Ohio and northern Kentucky tonight. Precipitation is likely to stay focused there the rest of the overnight where convergence and ascent is maximized associated with the LLJ. PWATs approaching 2 inches and warm rain processes support high rain rates and could lead to localized flooding if storms train over the same area. Shower activity may diminish in coverage around 8-10am this morning when the nose of the LLJ progresses further east.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is forecast to increase once again this afternoon mainly along and south of I-70 when another disturbance moves through. Shear and instability are on the lower side, but some isolated strong wind gusts cannot be ruled out. PWATs remain over 1.5 inches so locally heavy rain is possible. Any showers and storms that form today could linger into the evening and overnight as they slowly drift south.

KEY MESSAGE 2) On Monday, an anomalous upper level ridge builds across the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes and lasts at least through the next work week according the medium range ensemble guidance. Persistent southwesterly flow out of the gulf states continuously brings in warm, moist air to the region. Forecast highs by mid week are likely to be in the lower 90s along with dew points in the 70s. Lows are only expected to be in the 70s offering little relief overnight. Heat advisory headlines are likely much of next week with the heat index peaking between 100 and 105 each afternoon. The chance for any relief in the way of diurnal showers and storms appears low.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Ceilings have lowered into the MVFR and IFR categories across the area. Showers continue to impact the Cincinnati sites this morning while light drizzle and mist is being observed elsewhere. Ceilings and visibilities slowly improve during the afternoon and early evening. Some additional isolated shower and thunderstorms may develop again during the afternoon and evening. Overnight, ceilings are likely to drop into the MVFR and IFR categories once again.

Winds remain light and variable through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK... MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility will likely continue into Sunday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for OHZ063-070>073-077>082- 088. KY...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for INZ066-073>075-080.