textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move into the area today, then will move to the south tonight into early Wednesday. The front will bring occasional showers and thunderstorms, especially late this afternoon through early Wednesday.

2) Cooler conditions will persist through the end of the week. Temperatures will moderate over the weekend, with a chance of showers and thunderstorms also returning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front was located from lower Michigan southwest through northwest Indiana and central Illinois early this morning. Ahead of the front and instigated by a low level jet and generally elevated instability, showers and thunderstorms were ongoing over central Indiana/central Illinois. Overall trends are for activity to weaken over the next few hours, but what is left of the convection will likely bring rainfall perhaps with rumbles of thunder across eastern Indiana and western Ohio, and possibly even portions of northern Kentucky closer to sunrise. There is uncertainty how much of this residual activity lasts further east, and therefore PoPs lower considerably toward central/south-central Ohio early this morning.

After daybreak, expect a relative lull in showers and thunderstorms. However, by early afternoon the cold front will move into our northwest CWA and will start to ramp up the chances of precipitation at that time. Initial convection may be scattered in nature, but by late afternoon/early evening there is good consensus in rainfall becoming more widespread. As a weak low develops along the front, this will keep widespread showers going through much of the night as the front sags south of the area by early Wednesday morning.

While northern areas will tend to dry out on Wednesday, the southern portion of the CWA may hold onto some rain chances later into the day on Wednesday due to closer proximity to the front and any weak wave of low pressure rippling along the boundary. For the event, expect most areas to receive an inch of rainfall, with a low potential for some areas to receive two inches. Will have to monitor response of any small streams, but at this time the risk of flooding appears to be low.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid-level trough will promote cooler conditions on Thursday/Friday. Given the trough, there will be some clouds around and while most of the time will be dry, it's possible there could even be some showers Thursday. The better chance of showers and possible storms will come with a shortwave on Friday night and then again on Sunday as a cold front approaches the area. Temperatures are also expected to moderate over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Low level jet will promote non-convective low level wind shear for the next few hours. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms over Indiana are expected to weaken as they move east through sunrise. Despite the expected weakening trend, radar trends and some of the latest CAMs/high resolution guidance suggest that residual convection is likely to impact KDAY and perhaps KCVG/LUK, mainly in the 08z-11z time frame. Confidence is much lower further east toward Columbus and activity may dissipate before making it that far east.

After daybreak, expect a continuation of southerly winds which may gust at or above 20 knots throughout the day. A reprieve in convection is expected for the balance of the morning/early afternoon, then as moisture increases and a cold front approaches expect a chance for thunderstorms to return in the afternoon. This may occur at the same time that ceilings are capable of falling into the MVFR category. Eventually, more widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected by evening and this is expected to continue through tonight. Guidance points in the direction of prevailing IFR conditions developing for much of the tonight period. A wind shift to the north may also become apparent late at night as the frontal boundary drops to the south.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible through late tonight. IFR conditions are expected late tonight into early Wednesday with conditions likely improving to at least MVFR later Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.