textproduct: Wilmington

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed mention of severe weather for today. The cold front is currently stretched out across the Ohio River. It will advance northward tonight with warm and breezy conditions for Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The warm and active weather pattern will continue through most of the week, with several rounds of showers and storms expected into the upcoming weekend. A much cooler and drier pattern will return for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) The frontal boundary will lift back to the north tonight with lingering shower activity lifting north with the front. With our region back into the warm sector on Thursday, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the whole area. Will keep forecast mainly dry but it will be tough to rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

The mid/upper level flow will become more amplified Friday into Saturday with a series of embedded mid level short waves will lift northeast through the region. This will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning and then again Saturday into Saturday evening. A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday night, ushering in a much cooler airmass for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Thunderstorm threat has ended for the evening. A frontal boundary has gradually shifted southward throughout the afternoon, changing wind directions from southwest to northeast. IFR/MVFR CIGs have also developed behind the front.

As the front lifts north into Thursday morning, scattered showers are possible, but there is no mention in the TAF at this time given the high uncertainty. Of higher confidence, winds will shift back to southerly throughout the morning hours and MVFR/IFR CIGs will break.

Prevailing VFR conditions are expected the rest of the TAF. Wind gusts increase throughout the morning, and maximum wind gusts will range between 25 to 30 knots throughout the afternoon and early evening. Winds decrease after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Periodic thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

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