textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added blowing dust advisory for west central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy conditions will continue, slowly subsiding late this afternoon into the evening. Blowing dust in west central Ohio will diminish as winds decrease.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected late Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.

3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Windy conditions will continue, slowly subsiding late this afternoon into the evening. Blowing dust in west central Ohio will diminish as winds decrease.

Strong pressure fall/rise couplet is translating across the area. Low level jet should be near its peak intensity. And thus winds and gusts should be peaking as well. As the low level jet moves east and weakens later in the afternoon winds will start to decrease. While winds will remain gusty well into the evening, they will be subsiding, dropping below 10 mph as high pressure quickly builds in late tonight.

There have been some reports of blowing dust across west central Ohio where soils are dry. Upon further consideration, have decided to put a blowing dust advisory out. As winds slowly decrease, the potential to loft dust will diminish as well. KEY MESSAGE 2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected late Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.

Short wave over the Plains on Sunday will amplify as it head into the region Sunday night. Eastward progress will slow as the newly closed off low lifts north northeast. There remain some timing differences in the model suite in regards to the speed of the associated surface cold front. At this point, it appears that it will not move through the area until late Sunday night into Monday morning. Instability will be minimal at best at that time of day, but with very strong wind fields there remains a concern if any more robust convection can occur.

Increasing pressure gradient Sunday into Sunday night will lead to strengthening winds. Probability of wind gusts 40 mph or more are over 80 percent on Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

A vigorous cold front will be crossing the CWA early Monday. Mon high temps will = Sun night lows, with falling readings through the day. Columbus and eastern CWA are expected to be in the warm sector ahead of this front for a part of the morning, but this will be short-lived with a similar temperature trend - falling through the day but starting about 4-5 deg warmer than western CWA and DAY/CVG metro areas. There remains some bit of uncertainty in the numerical guidance, dependent on the time of the fropa. High end temps (again in the morning) are capped at 51-DAY, 47-CVG, and upper 50s-CMH. Low end values are near 30 for all metro areas. Forecast (NBM solution) looks to be favoring a slightly quicker passage and morning temps about 2 deg lower than forecast. The uncertainty looks to be due to outlying models being incorporated into the NBM forecast, which is a known feature and one of the pitfalls of using an ensemble forecast.

Deep nw flow behind the front will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air. Lows Mon and Tues nights will be in the teens, with daytime highs Mon only reaching the upper 20s. Wed should reach into the mid 40s, but again this is the tail end of the forecast and the most likely to be adjusted as time moves forward.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Winds remain the concern for the first half of the TAF period. Winds should be near peak intensity to start with a gradual subsiding towards 0Z, decreasing further after that. Gusts will end overnight and sustained speeds will fall below 10 kt before 12Z as high pressure builds in. Conditions will be VFR with just some mid and high clouds.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt likely Sunday afternoon through Sunday night possibly continuing into Monday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Sunday night into Monday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Monday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-072. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-073-074- 077>082-088. Blowing Dust Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034- 035. KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.