textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Another upper level disturbance will bring additional light snow to portions of the area this evening into the early overnight, with some narrow bands of briefly heavy snowfall rates possible. Below normal temperatures will persist through much of the week, with temperatures warming by the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Winter weather advisory for the freezing drizzle from this morning has been cancelled, with some drier air working in briefly. This is ahead of a stronger mid level short wave dropping through the area from the western Great Lakes by late afternoon through the overnight.

By late afternoon across the far north, weak low level convergence ahead of the main frontal boundary will bring areas of light snow. Snow settling in across the area will generally be an inch or less, as some brief WAA will allow for snow ratios in the 12:1 to 14:1 range. However, as low level and surface temperatures after 00z drop, ratios increase to 15:1 or greater. Additionally, as the front pushes through areas generally near/north of the I70 corridor, there is the potential for very brief and narrow heavier bands of snow, which could result in some locations to pick up a quick burst of snow accumulation in the 9pm-3am timeframe across the north, especially in central Ohio. Overall, the snow squall potential continues to remain more favorable to the north and east, but will continue to monitor the potential for abrupt bursts of snow this New Year's eve. This should take the snow totals to a widespread 1", with up to 2" possible along/north of I70 where brief bursts of snow occurs behind the front.

A lesser chance for narrow heavier snow bands does exist across portions of southern Ohio/southeast Indiana. Snow in this region should generally be an inch or less.

Winds will pivot to the NW behind the front, with gusts of 25-35 mph possible. Gusty winds combined with the plummeting temperatures could result in some blowing of snow well after accumulating snow has ended.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY/

Snow with the next system tonight looks be beginning north of the I-70 corridor by late day/early evening, holding off on srn 2/3 of CWA until after nightfall. Finer scale models are indicating that the snow will be tightly located along a very narrow band occurring with a n-s passing cold front. Winds shift more nw and then n after fropa, bringing in drier air and quickly turning snow off across CWA. Again, it looks like the favored area for accumulating snow lies along/n of the I-70 corridor early on, then central OH and e of Scioto River Valley through the predawn hours, ending from n-s. Areas nw to se of metro Cincy look to see little accumulation as the available lifting mechanism just doesn't reach that far w.

If the finer resolution CAMs end up the better forecast, the line will contain heavy snow with the lion's share of accumulations occurring in a very short < 1hr time frame. The preceding snowfall will prime central and south central OH, and any following light snow will have little to complement this feature wrt accums.

Lows drop to the low teens n of I-70, low 20s along the Ohio River as this area will experience frontal passage closer to daybreak.

Thursday will be cooler with highs in the mid 20s for nrn 1/3 of CWA, upper 20s down to the Ohio River, and low 30s south of the river. Cloudy skies will again prevail, though western and southern CWA will likely see at least some sunny breaks.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Not much change is noted in the overall weather features going forward. Northwest flow aloft in a rather deep layer will keep a cool and relatively unchanging airmass with a similar day to day high/low temperature trend. A ridge of surface high pressure will nose into the region from the nw, and the high will pass over the OHVly overnight Sun.

Sunday will begin to see the western ridge over the U.S. amplify, and heights will increase over the Ohio Valley. This warming feature, along with a return to sly flow behind the departing high should see temps rise back into the upper 30s north/upper 40s in nrn KY for both Sun and Mon. Overnight lows on Sun will react to the building heights and drop off any teens, with readings ranging from 20 to 30, coolest in the north. Mon night should be more notably "warmer" with upper 20s in the north, mid 30s in the south.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions for CVG/LUK might see occasional MVFR conditions this morning, but should scatter out in the afternoon underneath a mid level cloud deck. For the remaining terminals, low cloud cover (MVFR) hangs tough through the day.

This evening, VFR snow was brought in early ahead of fropa. As the front passes south, a narrow band of IFR, possibly LIFR will bring the bulk of accumulating snow in a short 1-maybe 2 hour time frame. Snow shouldn't linger much past the fropa as nw winds turning n will bring drier air.

Winds will be gusty, moreso this afternoon, and maintain a 14-15kt sustained velocity through the night. These winds will be notably lighter at CVG/LUK, with gusts only occurring in the afternoon and sustained speeds overnight dropping to 10-12kt.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs likely tonight.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.