textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight adjustments to temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

2) A few chances of light snow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

Still looking at a slightly less cold night tonight with little to no wind. Thus, apparent temperatures generally remain above advisory threshold. Even though there could be some isolated locations that do, that is not enough to prompt another cold weather advisory for tonight.

Another surge of Arctic air will move in Friday afternoon and evening. This may result in a few locations approaching record temperatures Friday night and/or Saturday. While probabilities of apparent temperatures reaching warning threshold during this time frame have increased slightly, in collaboration with surrounding offices, decided to hold off on an excessive cold watch.

After that time, there will be another gradual lessening of the cold. Another advisory is very possible Saturday night as probability of reaching that threshold at that time are greater than 75 percent.

The warming trend will continue into early next week. While temperatures may still remain nearly 10 degrees below normal, it will end any excessive cold headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A few chances of light snow.

Not completely out of the question that a system passing south of the area tonight could bring a little light snow to parts of northern Kentucky tonight, but trends are for any snow to stay south of the area. HREF probabilities are 10 percent at most, although REFS is around 20 percent.

Next potential for light snow will be on Monday. Short wave dropping across the Great Lakes combined with low level warm advection will provide lift. However, this lift will be decreasing with time as it moves across the region. This is reflected in model precipitation becoming lighter/less coverage as it moves through. Various ensemble systems are more generous with precipitation potential than the rather paltry NBM. Even the driest cluster, comprised mostly of ECMWF members, suggests a 30 percent chance of measurable precipitation. If this continues, would expect NBM PoPs to trend upward with time.

Increasing spread in solutions heading into midweek with speed and amplitude of the next system dropping out of the northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. NBM chance PoPs look reasonable at this stage. Temperatures have trended colder, so the possibility of any rain or rain/snow mix has decreased leaving precipitation type as snow with this system.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Although some mid/high clouds continue to stream through srn parts of the region, a borderline MFVR/VFR stratocu deck draped across the N near KCMH/KLCK will slowly drift S/SW through daybreak, with clearer skies expected for nrn sites of KCMH/KLCK/KDAY toward 12z. However, some diurnally-driven VFR stratocu will sprout about again area-wide by the afternoon, persisting with SCT/BKN coverage through the end of the period.

Light N/NE winds less than 5kts will prevail through 12z before increasing subtly into the afternoon to 8-10kts. Northerly wind will subside again toward 00z and beyond.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday into Saturday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible with light snow on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.