textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No substantial changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several rounds of showers through the weekend.

2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Multiple chances for light rainfall exist over the upcoming week as disturbances move through the longwave troughing pattern in the region.

A weak midlevel shortwave progresses across the Ohio Valley tonight bringing a chance for showers and a few storms. Midlevel frontogenesis at the nose of a strengthening LLJ will likely serve as a focal point for shower/storm activity along and northwest of I- 71. Lighter rainfall is expected southeast of I-71 late overnight as the disturbance pushes east.

The next chance of rain is on Sunday ahead of a cold front dropping in from the northwest. Forcing appears to be weak and moisture is fairly low so not much QPF is currently being forecast. Another chance for rain arrives on Wednesday when a low moves through the Upper Great Lakes.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Long wave troughing and below average temperatures persist across much of the next week. A brief warmup is expected on Saturday ahead of a cold front.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions persist through the afternoon. During evening around 0200z, a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms develops initially north of I-70 before progressing south overnight. Thunder chances are likely to be limited to the KDAY area. MVFR ceilings are likely to develop later tonight as shower activity progresses south. Shower activity is forecast to fade by 1200z, followed by slowly improving ceilings thereafter.

Southwesterly winds from 10-15 knots persist through 0000z before weakening overnight. Southwesterly winds pick up once again after 1200z. A brief period of LLWS is possible tonight.

OUTLOOK...Multiple rounds of rain possible this week.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.