textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A period of light snow will be possible this morning as a cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Temperatures will remain below seasonal normals through this weekend and into the beginning of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak cold front gradually pushes through the fa this morning. Some light echoes are appearing on radar as snowfall is being generated with the proximity of this boundary. However, bufkit soundings show very limited overlap of negative omega and saturation in the DGZ. While snow ratios will be quite high (over 13:1 for the entire CWA), coverage in snow showers will be very limited given the lack of forcing. Cannot rule out some light accumulations of 0.5" or less where snow bands develop, primarily south of I-70 and north of the Ohio River.

Any lingering snowfall will taper off by the mid to late morning hours. Broad surface high pressure will settle into the Midwest region today behind the cold front. Clouds will begin to dissolve in our northern counties first as the surface high builds in, allowing for more sunshine by the afternoon. Daytime highs will be quite chilly however, with majority of the fa observing highs below the freezing mark.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/

Frigid overnight lows will be the story for tonight. The NBM deterministic forecast currently has min temps above the 75th percentile. However, given the proximity of the surface high, along with light winds and fresh snowpack, temps will likely dip even further -- especially in our north where cloud coverage will be more limited overnight. Trended lows slightly cooler based on these factors, which now puts lows in the single digits for all counties along and north of I-70.

A low pressure system in the southeastern CONUS will (at the very least) usher some clouds in along/south of the Ohio River. There is a low (but non-zero) chance that some snow could sneak into our northern KY counties late Friday, but dry conditions are favored during the daytime hours with the influence of the surface high.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A relatively quiet few days are in store at the start of the extended period as (somewhat disorganized) zonal flow dominates the large scale pattern over the Mid-Atlantic region. There are indications in the longer ensemble guidance that various shortwaves will move through the flow, each bringing limited moisture and low end PoPs to the forecast.

The first of these arrives Saturday night into Sunday, introducing the chance for some snow or rain snow mix to the region, though this system will be weakening and relatively moisture starved, so QPF isn't overly robust. The more impactful component of this system will be the reinforcing blast of arctic air that will be on its heels as surface high pressure moves in. In fact, blended guidance drops overnight lows Sunday night and Monday night into the teens/ single digits and keeps Monday's daytime highs only in the mid 20s to low 30s.

The next weak wave moves through sometime on Tuesday as a weak Clipper system, passing along the Great Lakes. This reintroduces low end PoPs back into the forecast, though (again) this is a relatively moisture starved system. Ensemble guidance begins to hint at a larger system mid-week, though details are scarce at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Snowfall has generally shifted southeast of the terminals this morning. Coverage is limited enough now to not warrant a mention the tafs.

CIG improvement is expected to be sooner compared to previous forecast. Now expecting the majority of terminals to improve back to VFR by late morning, with KCVG/KLUK likely being pushed into the early afternoon. Ahead of the cold front, a brief period of LIFR CIGs is possible before gradual improvement ensues.

VFR conditions expected for the remainder of the taf period. Winds shift out of the NW behind the front, but expected to remain below 10 kts through the taf period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Saturday into Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.