textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelled the dense fog advisory as visibilities have improved.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal through the week.

2) Showers and some thunderstorms will return to the region Tuesday into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) With clouds decreasing today, temperatures will be several degrees warmer than yesterday, getting back close to normal. Rising mid level heights through mid week will allow for warming in the atmospheric column. So temperatures will be able to rise above normal Tuesday through Thursday. Heights will get suppressed late in the week as a long wave trough develops from eastern Canada into the northeast US. This will lead to a cooling trend heading into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Boundary moving across the area this morning will become elongated and oriented more east northeast-west southwest this afternoon. Most likely it will be just south of the far southeastern part of the forecast area during peak heating. As isolated to widely scattered convection develops near the boundary, cannot rule out a bit of this activity occurring in northeast Kentucky and south central Ohio.

The front will start to return north on Tuesday, getting to near the Ohio River by the end of the day. Some further northward progress will occur Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, possibly getting to near I-70. Expect greater coverage of diurnal activity both days as weak energy cuts through an elongated mid level ridge. And there could even be some lingering showers through Tuesday night in between these diurnal peaks.

Precipitable water is forecast to increase to over 150 percent of normal by Wednesday. So some localized heavy rain is possible. But most indications are that the band of showers and thunderstorms will be progressive, getting shunted southwards through Wednesday afternoon and evening.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings and visibilities to start the period other than at KDAY which is VFR and will remain that way. Elsewhere, expect visibility to improve first and then for ceilings to start to lift. Clouds will scatter area wide towards 18Z. Expect VFR ceilings to spread northwards into the region after 00Z. Could be some MVFR visibility restrictions, but for now only have enough confidence to include that at KLUK.

OUTLOOK...MVFR visibilities possible Tuesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.