textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

In collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC, high temperatures for today through Tuesday continue to be adjusted down from the NBM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather with rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through tonight. Some of these storms may produce large hail and wind damage across southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky late this afternoon and this evening, while localized heavy rain could develop in southeast Indiana this evening.

2) A warm front shifts north on Sunday providing drier and warmer conditions through Monday. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Morning convection has mostly moved east of central OH early this afternoon, leaving behind abundant cloud cover and an airmass attempting to recover for later this afternoon. Showers have persisted moreso across northern KY on the northern periphery of a disturbance to our south.

The aforementioned wave of energy and quasi-mesoscale convective vortex coming out of Arkansas into western TN and southwest KY will be the key feature to monitor later today through tonight. Showers and storms to our west and southwest will continue to be generated by this, with southeast IN likely seeing storms develop later this afternoon or early evening. A period of clearing is currently developing along the Ohio River, thus likely allowing temperatures to bump to near 80 degrees as low-level southwesterly winds allow for destabilization in the warm sector. Precipitable water values above 1.5 inches and increasing effective shear to 30+ knots may very well allow for a period of stronger storms through this evening, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Additional storms generated later today, along with the approach of ongoing storms along a defined band spanning central Indiana, may pose a heavy rain and localized flooding threat for southeast IN this evening. Will have to monitor development through this evening/tonight for northern KY and far southwest OH as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Following any lingering Sunday morning showers and storms, upper ridging building in will bring rising heights resulting in drier and warmer weather for the 2nd half of the weekend. Isolated late afternoon and evening showers/storms are possible across west central OH and eastern IN on Monday as heat/moisture build ahead of a cool front arriving by midweek.

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of this front. Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s into the lower 90s. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated by the presence of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers continuing to impact KCVG/KLUK this afternoon, although VFR conditions remain in place. KCMH/KLCK currently experiencing MVFR ceilings behind this morning's showers and storms, but would expect a return to low-end VFR conditions this afternoon as mixing allows for some better clearing.

Additional shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to develop later this afternoon into this evening, with the best chances in southeast IN and toward KCVG/KLUK. A good deal of uncertainty exists regarding specific location and timing, but showers and storms look to be in play through tonight.

Following low-end VFR to high-end MVFR ceilings through this afternoon and early evening, confidence remains high enough to warrant MVFR and IFR ceilings at KCMH, KLCK, and KDAY tonight. May see some periods of IFR ceilings at KILN as well.

Southwest winds will gust to around 25 kts through the day today and then drop to 10 kts or less tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.