textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added fog tonight to the south and southeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A drier and somewhat cooler airmass will move in behind a cold tonight and into Saturday. A secondary cold front will bring additional showers and thunderstorms on Sunday along with cooler temperatures for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Mid level westerlies to settle into the Ohio Valley with surface high pressure building into region overnight. In the wake of a surface cold front some lingering clouds over the southeast will give way to clearing this afternoon as drier air advects in on northwest low level flow. Surface high pressure over the area tonight will offer clear skies and light winds. Residual low level moisture over the southeast will likely lead to the development of fog especially in river valleys.

Surface high pressure will shift east across the region Saturday, providing drier and somewhat cooler conditions.

In progressive westerly flow aloft, additional mid level energy will result in a secondary cold front that tracks east thru the Ohio Valley on Sunday. This will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday night and into the day on Sunday. There is some spread on timing of the FROPA on Sunday with ECMWF and NAM being a little slower. If a slower solution is observed more instability will be available over the southeast which will lead to the potential for a few strong/severe storms Sunday afternoon. Will continue to monitor timing trends with this front. Behind the front, dry and cooler conditions are expected on Monday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

In the wake of a surface cold front some lingering clouds over the southeast will give way to clearing this afternoon as drier air advects in on northwest low level flow. A lingering MVFR ceiling will improve quickly to VFR this afternoon.

Surface high pressure over the area tonight will offer clear skies and light winds. Residual low level moisture over the southeast will likely lead to the development of fog especially in river valleys. Have a mention of MVFR to IFR vsby restrictions at KCVG/KLUK and KILN. KLUK valley location has the best probability of LIFR restrictions.

Surface high pressure will shift east across the region Saturday, providing drier and somewhat cooler conditions. Expect any fog to improve quickly after sunrise with only some high level clouds across the area.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible again on Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.