textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure shifts southward today, moving directly over the Ohio Valley. Dry conditions will continue, but winds will be weaker due to the placement of the high pressure. Temperatures warm a few degrees from yesterday's high temps, with the area in the upper 70s and lower 80s.

Shifting into Thursday, the center of the high pressure is far enough south to support a return to southwesterly surface flow. Deeper moisture is a bit slower to return, but area wide temperatures are now comfortably into the 80s as the warm up continues. Dry conditions are now expected through Friday due to the slower arrival of the trough digging into the Great Lakes. The delayed arrival prevents deeper moisture from reaching the local area, decreasing the potential for sufficient instability.

This changes on Saturday as southwesterly flow ushers in better surface moisture. Dew points are much closer to the mid 60s, and forecast soundings indicate there will be enough to generate some thunderstorm potential. The main question for Saturday is timing. For northwest portions of the area (west-central Ohio, east-central Indiana), any lingering outflow boundaries from thunderstorms Friday night would result in a better chance for early afternoon thunderstorms on Saturday. Otherwise, new thunderstorm development would likely take place late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening as the trough moves through. Thunderstorms may not reach the Ohio River area until late in the evening if the later timing prevails. The trough is not very impressive so the advancement of the cold front southward through the area Saturday night would be slow. This will set the stage for renewed thunderstorm chances, mainly south of I-70, for Sunday afternoon. Much of this activity may be along and south of the Ohio River if some of the more aggressive solutions pan out. Severe weather and flash flood potential are quite low with this system. Wind flows are quite weak and PWAT values are not overly concerning. A stalled front south of the river could result in some slow moving thunderstorms, but predictability is still quite low.

Into early next week, the main theme is a returning ridge over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley with a stalled front stretching from the middle Mississippi Valley through Tennessee and into the Mid- Atlantic. Based on the latest cluster analysis, there is at least some chance of a cut-off low retrograding westward into the Ohio Valley. This outcome is observed most across the GEFS members, but there are also some ECWMF ENS members that suggest this scenario. Until confidence increases, expect some changes in the forecast for early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions should persist through the TAF period.

Surface high pressure moves southward out of the Great Lakes late Wednesday. Easterly winds initially between 5 and 8 knots this afternoon will go light and variable tonight.

Starting Thursday, winds become predominately southerly to southwesterly but are less than 10 knots. Winds increase above 10 knots Friday with gusts between 20-25 knots.

OUTLOOK...There is a chance for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.