textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Warm temperatures return Sunday through the upcoming week as high pressure moves east. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
High pressure slides east across the Great Lakes and mid-Atlantic to northeast CONUS tonight, resulting in warming temperatures and increasing moisture for the second half of the weekend. A broad mid level ridge will build in aloft over the Ohio Valley and the eastern portion of the country on Sunday through the entire work week. Some fire weather concerns may develop Sunday as southwesterly winds increase with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Along with the gusty winds, minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent are expected over northeast Kentucky and the Lower Scioto River Valley.
A few weak disturbances moving within the northern periphery of the ridge will provide chances for showers and thunderstorms during each day of the upcoming week. Surface moisture does increase into the Ohio Valley, but each day lacks a significant forcing mechanism, which will limit chances for widespread severe weather. However, a moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours.
The best windows for showers and thunderstorms look to be early Monday, Tuesday night into Wednesday, and Thursday as shortwave energy rides along the northern periphery of the ridge. Next weekend may lead to another enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a frontal boundary, but confidence is low due to model solution spread regarding timing and strength.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Prevailing VFR conditions as high pressure shifts to the northeast of the region tonight. Moving into Sunday, the main aviation story will be the changing wind directions. Light easterly winds today become southerly or southeasterly Sunday morning. Then, by the afternoon, southerly to southwesterly winds prevail with gusts of 20 to 25 knots during the afternoon. The next chance of rain is beyond the current TAF, with the arrival sometime Sunday night.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times Monday through Wednesday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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