textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat advisory issued for west central Ohio. Flood watch is cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for additional flooding has ended.

2) Hot and humid conditions will occur today and Thursday.

3) A cold front will move through the area on Friday with a second cold front moving through on Sunday. It will become cooler and less humid early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) It has become apparent that there will be no additional organized development of showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern part of the forecast area, although cannot rule out a shower or two still. Thus was able to cancel the flood watch early.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Humid air mass will remain in place. There will be a decrease in cloud cover this afternoon which will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s. A pocket of slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures is forecast to move across west central Ohio today, so highs could get to 90 there. Temperatures are forecast to be very similar on Thursday. The heat index will range from 95 to 100 both days. In coordination with surrounding offices have issued a heat advisory for west central Ohio for today where there is a somewhat better probability of reaching a heat index of 100.

KEY MESSAGE 3) A cold front will approach the region late Thursday night and may even get into northwest counties before daybreak Friday. Convection that will occur along the front well west of the area during the afternoon and evening will most likely have weakened substantially if not completely dissipated by the time the front arrives in the forecast area. However, it is not completely out of the realm of possibilities that a few stronger storms gets this far east late Thursday night, and if that would happen then there could be a strong to damaging wind gust.

With daytime heating on Friday, there will be convective redevelopment along the front. Whether that occurs from central Ohio into northeast Kentucky or whether that occurs after the front is east of the forecast area is still a bit uncertain. Convection is expected to become robust, so there could be some potential for severe storms.

In the wake of the front, a less humid air mass will spread into the area for Saturday. But moisture will quickly return Saturday night. Another cold front will move through on Sunday with more showers and storms. It will then become cooler and less humid for early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR to IFR ceilings will occur across the region to start the period. The clouds will lift and scatter before 18Z. VFR will prevail from there on out with few to scattered cumulus.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026- 034-035. KY...None. IN...None.