textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Gusty winds and rain will overspread the region today ahead of an approaching cold front. Precipitation will taper off heading into tonight but a much colder airmass will settle into the ares behind the front for Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

A strong mid level short wave will move across the upper Plains today with an associated surface low moving into the western Great Lakes. As it does, an attendant cold front will approach our area from the west through late afternoon. Ahead of this, a 50-70 knot 850 mb jet will shift east into the region through the afternoon hours. This will result in good moisture transport up into our area with widespread rain developing from west to east through the afternoon hours.

The increasing low level jet will combine with the tightening pressure gradient to produce 20-30 mph winds with some gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range this afternoon. The strongest wind gusts are expected across northwest portions of our area, closer to the surface low and where the low level jet will be maximized later this afternoon.

In the WAA pattern, temperatures will be seasonably mild with highs in the mid to possibly upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Widespread rain will taper off this evening from northwest to southeast as the initial cold front moves through. In developing CAA behind the front, temperatures will begin to drop off through the night. A secondary cold front will move into the area from the northwest late tonight into Friday morning. A stronger shot of CAA will accompany this secondary front and this will likely lead to an uptick in wind gusts again late tonight into Friday morning. As thermal profiles begin to cool off, it will be tough to rule out a few snow showers, but by this time, the deeper moisture should be limited, so do not think it will amount to too much in the way of accumulation. Lows tonight will range from the upper teens northwest to the mid 20s in the far southeast. Temperatures will then continue to drop off through much of the rest of Friday morning before beginning to rebound heading into Friday afternoon. Highs on Friday will range from the mid 20s north to the lower 30s south.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

On Friday evening, a deep cyclone will be moving northeast through the far northeastern part of the CONUS, with high pressure and pseudo-zonal upper flow setting up over the Ohio Valley region. Westerly flow behind a cold front will eventually switch to the SSW by Saturday, as the center of the surface high moves east across the southeastern CONUS. This will bring a switch to warm advection for Saturday, with temperatures expected to be above normal. There will be a considerable amount of SW flow just off the surface, but a strong inversion will be a limiting factor for wind gusts. With that said, this forecast will highlight some 20-30 MPH wind gusts during the day on Saturday, and there may be a room for this to increase a little bit.

Another cold front will move into the area early on Sunday, with weak forcing and very little moisture to work with. Could not totally discount the possibility of some light rain or snow early Sunday morning, but most locations will likely remain dry. This cold front will bring temperatures a bit cooler for Sunday and Monday, with highs generally in the 30s.

High pressure behind the Sunday cold front will then move east by Monday night, switching flow to warm advection once again. There is low confidence in any specifics for precipitation timing for Tuesday and beyond, but there does look to be some chance for precipitation next week, with waves in the WNW flow aloft interacting with moisture advecting into the region from the SW. With temperatures expected to be solidly above normal, any precipitation that occurs would likely be rain.

AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A low pressure system will move east across the Great Lakes region today through tonight with an associated cold front pushing southeast across our area tonight. A tightening pressure gradient and strengthening low level jet will lead to increasing winds today with gusts in the 30 to 35 knot range possible, especially this afternoon. LLWS will also be possible today into early this evening.

Meanwhile, rain will overspread the region from the west this afternoon with MVFR cigs and vsbys developing from west to east. A period of IFR cigs may eventually develop heading into this evening as the cold front moves in. As the front moves through, southerly winds will become west to northwest this evening and then continue into the overnight hours. Some wind gusts in the 25 to 30 knot range will remain possible tonight. Pcpn will taper off from west to east this evening with MVFR cigs persisting through the remainder of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.