textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of dry weather will continue through the bulk of the forecast period, with the next credible rain chances occurring on Friday. Temperatures will generally be near or slightly below climatological normals.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Two impressive troughs will move through the northeast US over the next few days, providing a steady supply of continental polar air over the Ohio Valley. Sensible weather from today through midweek is expected to be very similar, with some minor differences. The breakdown of the well advertised omega block pattern arrives late in the week, with renewed rainfall chances Friday and Saturday.

The first trough is moving through the northeast US and off the East Coast today. A backdoor cold front is advancing through northeast Ohio early this morning, moving across the local area throughout the day. The front is dry so the only obvious feature to indicate the frontal passage is an increase in northeast winds. The air may also feel a bit cooler and drier with lower theta-e air advecting in.

A weak shortwave over the lower Midwest attempts to move eastward into the middle Ohio Valley Sunday. There will be some increase in mid-level clouds, and a sprinkle or light shower may be possible on Monday. However, the second trough over the northeast US will be digging southward, bringing another round of dry air with a backdoor cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure moves back in over the region through Thursday. Temperatures moderate into the 80s on Thursday, but dry weather persists.

Confidence is increasing that the dominating ridge over the central CONUS and southern Canada will break down Friday. This will allow for better moisture advection back into the Ohio Valley from the Mississippi River Valley and Plains. For now, it looks like showers and thunderstorms are a possibility for both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions persist today as a weak backdoor cold front slips south of the TAF/s during the morning. Airmass is dry and only expect a few fair weather cumulus clouds in the wake of the front.

Light northeast winds overnight increase to 10-12 kts Saturday afternoon with gusts up to 18 kts. Winds may lesson some overnight, becoming more easterly by the end of the TAF.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.