textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added chances for sprinkles Sunday night into Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of dry weather will continue through at least Thursday. Temperatures will generally be near or slightly below climatological normals.

2) Temperatures begin to warm by the end of the week, and chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Surface high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley gradually weakens throughout the day. Light northeasterly flow becomes weaker during the afternoon and evening. A continuous stream of cirrus/cirrostratus will be present, similar to the last few days. Into Sunday night, a weak shortwave to the west of the region slowly moves east. The low level atmosphere remains quite dry, but there will be increasing moisture aloft. The increase in mid- level moisture will produce elevated showers which may be persistent enough to allow for some sprinkles Sunday night into Monday. Virga is likely to be observed throughout the day on Monday.

Another trough over the northeast US will be digging southward, bringing another round of dry air with a backdoor cold front Monday night into Tuesday. Surface high pressure moves back in over the region through Thursday, maintaining the dry conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Confidence is increasing that the dominating ridge over the central CONUS and southern Canada will break down Friday. This will allow for better moisture advection back into the Ohio Valley from the Mississippi River Valley and Plains. Temperatures will also increase in response to the southwesterly flow. The timing of the initial round of rain continues to bounce around, with Friday looking a bit drier compared to yesterday. A secondary shortwave trough on Saturday would likely result in better chances on Saturday. Given these features are quite small, the exact forecast details will change with future forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR prevails through the taf period.

Northeasterly winds veer slightly to the east today, becoming more easterly and eventually variable between 20-22Z as high pressure weakens over the region. Light northeasterly winds return Monday and Tuesday as high pressure strengthens to the north.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.