textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor adjustments to timing of this afternoon's showers and storms.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for severe thunderstorms late this afternoon into the evening. Gusty winds occur Friday behind a cold front.

2) Below normal temperatures late weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

1) Strong mid-level flow with deep moisture will shift into the area late this afternoon into the evening. Long and curved hodographs will be in place across our southern areas... especially near a warm front across our Tri- State counties this evening. Main issue holding back a more widespread event will be a lack of strong instability and some doubt as to how far north the warm front reaches during our relative max in destabilization. The very latest HRRR runs along with local WOFS window signal the best moisture could stay south of our CWA entirely.

Where convection does develop, cell mode is likely to be supercellular. Large hail is a low-end concern, with the main concerns being damaging wind and an isolated tornado threat. This parameter space could support a stronger tornado depending on overlap of all the environmental factors.

KEY MESSAGE 2) As an upper level trough digs into the northeast US, a northwesterly flow pattern will develop across the middle Ohio Valley. The lowest mid-level heights occur starting Sunday and continuing into Tuesday morning. A cold surface high pressure building into the region Monday night and early Tuesday will bring lighter winds and the lowest overnight low temperatures due to peak radiational cooling conditions.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Complex TAF period in store over the next 24 hours with a period of scattered thunderstorm development late this afternoon into tonight, then a wind shift and gusty winds occurring Friday during the day.

Persistent stratus is likely to lift to VFR early in the period as solar insolation lifts cloud bases for all sites. Incoming low pressure to the west will cause showers and storms to develop and move into the area starting late this afternoon, impacting the terminals this evening. An isolated strong to severe storm could cause a locally strong wind gust... but with low coverage will deal with this using amendments.

Passage of the surface cold front will occur shortly after midnight from west to east. This will lead to southwesterly to increasingly westerly winds on Friday. Efficient mixing is likely to bring 30+ knot gusts during the midday into early afternoon hours.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.