textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Arctic air will settle into the region behind the snow, bringing bitterly cold temperatures into Monday. This will be followed by a substantial warm up through midweek.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Deep elongated mid level low to pinwheel southeast thru the Great Lakes today and into New England tonight. System snow is exiting the far southeast. Reports are still coming in - but this system generally provided a 3 to 6 inch band of snow across areas along and south of I-70, with lessor amounts across west central Ohio and portions of northern Kentucky. With snow ended have dropped all winter storm warnings and advisories. Clouds look to decrease this morning, and then are expected to have some diurnally driven increase which should then diminish tonight. Can not rule out a few snow showers or flurries across the far north today due to flow off the Lakes.

Arctic air will continue to spill into the region today. Winds are forecast to stay around 10 to 15 mph. The combination results in bitter wind chill readings. High temperatures will only rise to between 10 and 15 degrees. After minimum wind chills of -5 to -15 this morning - wind chills only rise to the single digits today. Cold advisory has these conditions covered well.

These record cold maxima for December 14 are in jeopardy today: CVG 15 in 1917 CMH 16 in 1917 DAY 16 in 1917

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

Sprawling Arctic high pressure will build southeast with the center of the high moving into central Kentucky by late tonight. This will result in winds decreasing but perhaps not completely decoupling. Temperatures will drop to lows in the single digits above and below zero. With lighter winds the lowest wind chill readings will range from near zero to 15 below zero, with the coldest values over eastern Indiana and western Ohio. In the southeast it may be marginal whether some of the area reaches the cold advisory criteria, but no changes were made to the timing of the advisory.

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure continuing to slip off to the southeast. Some high level clouds will spill into the area with temperatures moderating some with highs in the lower and middle 20s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mid level flow will become zonal early in the period. Models continue to bring a short wave across the region Thursday into Thursday night. Rain will develop ahead of an associated sfc cold front that crosses the area Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. A warmup will take place after the brief Arctic intrusion. Ahead of the front highs on Thursday are expected to reach the lower and middle 50s.

In the wake of the front, temperatures will fall back below normal on Friday but dry conditions are expected as surface high pressure builds across the area. The cool down will be brief with temperatures warming to the middle 40s to the lower 50s on Saturday. A chance of rain will accompany the warmer readings on Saturday.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Clouds have scattered out except for some VFR lake effect clouds across central Ohio. KCVG is the only site reporting blowing snow and IFR conditions. Have carried these conditions for a brief period this morning.

MVFR to VFR stratocu will redevelop through late morning and continue through the afternoon. Expect decreasing clouds late in the day into tonight. Some high level clouds expected late tonight into Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for KYZ089>100. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.