textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain tonight into Sunday.

2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

3) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain tonight into Sunday.

Surface high pressure has drifted off the coast of the Carolinas, and high clouds associated with an incoming shortwave trough have already begun to spill into the Ohio Valley. This wave may briefly close off into a mid-level low over the southeastern states Sunday morning. A feed of theta-e ahead of the wave is already leading to an increase in moisture as far north as the Ohio Valley, and precipitation (along with thickening clouds and some reductions in visibility) will spread into the area tonight. No significant changes in expectations for the precipitation from the previous forecast, with values of around a half inch (perhaps a little more) for the southern portions of the ILN CWA, with lesser amounts in the northern sections. The onset of precipitation may not be a solid southwest-to-northeast progression, as deformation forcing may allow some bands of rain to develop north of the main precipitation shield tonight. Ultimately, the rain should fill in through Sunday morning, before ending from northwest to southeast on Sunday afternoon.

Still not really seeing much signal for heavy rainfall or flooding concerns, with rainfall amounts looking to stay under an inch in even the higher-end solutions.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

An area of high pressure will follow the Saturday night / Sunday wave, and will mark the beginning of a significant warming trend next week. Weak southerly flow will already be in place Monday, with much stronger southerly to southwesterly flow Tuesday and beyond. As of now, Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, though at this distance in the forecast there is some room for this to change. The temperature forecast for Thursday has increased with this forecast cycle, and values on Wednesday and perhaps Thursday may at least get in the vicinity of record values. As temporal uncertainty decreases and we get closer, there may still be some room for these temperature forecasts to increase.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

With ridging extending from the southeastern CONUS to the Ohio Valley, the overall storm track next week should stay just north of the ILN CWA. It does look like the flow will become active by Wednesday, with one or two systems moving through the Great Lakes between then and the end of the week -- likely one on Wednesday and another on Friday. Confidence remains low regarding precipitation potential, as this will depend on track, forcing, and how much moisture is able to make it into the Ohio Valley. It does look like the pressure gradient will increase during this time period, increasing the potential for gusty winds, particularly on Wednesday and then perhaps through Thursday and Friday as well. PoPs will be kept in the forecast through Thursday and Friday, with some potential for showers developing associated with a warm front Thursday, and then a more substantial wave developing on Friday. However, these details may change as we get closer to this period of the forecast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon. Rain, with significantly reduced aviation conditions, will move in this evening and overnight. Rain may begin with VFR conditions, but visibilities will drop to MVFR and then IFR levels, and ceilings will drop to IFR and maybe even LIFR conditions by Sunday morning. Winds through this period will shift a bit, but should generally remain only about 5 knots.

At around 18Z, rain should be moving out of the area, and some gradual improvements to visibilities and ceilings will occur.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities will continue into Sunday afternoon, and possibly into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.