textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Brisk west winds will continue over the region, producing wind chills in the single digits this morning, teens this afternoon. An upper level disturbance will move quickly to the southeast tonight in uniform, strong northwest flow. This could bring a half inch of snow to central Ohio, with a dusting to a quarter inch over the remainder of the CWA.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Continued periods of light snow and flurries remain over the region attm, and this may persist for the bulk of the overnight hours. Little to no accumulation will be found, especially with the fluffy nature of the snow and continued strong west winds.

Cloudy skies may see a brief break in the afternoon, only to become overcast once again as mid clouds thicken and lower by evening. These breaks will be more likely southwest of a Dayton-Wilmington- Chillicothe line.

Highs will range from 25 in the north to 30 in the south, with wind chills in the teens.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/

Mid level energy traveling se on strong nw flow aloft will bring additional snow to the region tonight, with the primary threat of any accumulation found in central Ohio. A dusting can be expected elsewhere overnight.

Lows will ever so slightly warmer, from 20-25 as thick cloud cover inhibits any radiational cooling, yet nly advection keeps pumping in cold air. Likewise, Wed will be a handful of degrees warmer on Wed, ranging from 30 in the north to 35 in the south.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

Wednesday night (New Year's Eve) will see snow over the region. In central Ohio, an inch to inch and a half is expected to have fallen between Wed evening and daybreak Thurs. A half to 3/4" is favored from Darke County through Dayton, Wilmington, and Scioto County. There's a sharp cutoff, with less than 1/4" expected to the west and south of metro Cincinnati. This looks to be a similar setup to tonights expected snowfall - mid level disturbance in zonal nw flow. This disturbance has some added lift with a weak s/w crossing through ne OH, as well as a w-e sfc trough passing south. These features are providing a little extra upward motion in a primed airmass to wring out a generally fluffy snowfall. Temps on Thurs are the coolest of the period, with a fresh layer of snow and nrly winds behind the sfc trough/weak cdfnt.

Thu night lows look to be a bit high for my taste. They should be at least as cool if not cooler than Wed night, given a ridge of high pressure over the region and clearing sky cover.

Earlier model runs for Fri night were showing a weak disturbance passing to the south, which unfortunately carried over into this initialization. Latest guidance does not indicate anything to work with during this time, and what pops were put in also used a ZR weather type. Removed pops and any mention of weather for Fri night. This comes in line with the forecast beginning with daybreak on the first of the new year.

No active weather is expected for the weekend, and temperatures will remain on the cool side with 30s for highs (some low 40s over nrn KY), rising into the mid 30s to mid 40s for Monday. Not sure why the increase is noted given static upper heights, possibly the models trending towards warmer climo values. Overnight lows through the period will also linger on the cold side, teens to low 20s. Sun night is being proffered as a "warmup" with lows in the mid 20s to low 30s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Cigs will remain MVFR but could see some waffling into VFR for southwest CWA and CVG/LUK terminals. This lower sky cover breaks up during the day, but is replaced with a mid level deck that lowers overnight. Kept VFR -sn through the morning into early afternoon. Exception here is CVG/LUK who should see any snow taper off after daybreak.

West wind will stay up overnight, and north of CVG/LUK will see higher sustained withs with gusts to 25kt both tonight and through the day Tuesday. Gusts should begin to die off in nrn TAF sites by late day, yet linger around 15kt. As mentioned in the tonight section of this product, snow looks to occur overnight, particularly for CMH/LCK with 1/2" or so of accumulation. Any snow at ILN will be a dusting, and no accumulation is expected with flurries possible at DAY/CVG/LUK.

OUTLOOK... MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are likely for New Year's Eve in snow.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.