textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Warm temperatures return today through the upcoming week as high pressure moves east. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
The center of surface high pressure slides off to the east as a broad mid level ridge builds into the area today and thru the entire work week. This results in a warming temperatures and increasing moisture beginning late tonight. Some fire weather concerns may develop this afternoon as southwesterly winds increase with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Along with the gusty winds, minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent are expected over northeast Kentucky and the Lower Scioto River Valley.
A few weak disturbances moving within the northern periphery of the ridge will provide chances for showers and thunderstorms during each day of the upcoming week. Low level moisture increases into the Ohio Valley, but each day lacks a significant forcing mechanism, which will limit chances for widespread severe weather. However, a moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours.
The best windows for showers and thunderstorms look to be late tonight/early Monday, Tuesday night into Wednesday and Thursday as shortwave energy rides along the northern periphery of the ridge. Next weekend may lead to another enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms ahead of a frontal boundary, but confidence continues to be low due to model solution spread regarding timing and strength.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
Surface high pressure will move off to the east today. This will lead to increasing southerly winds during the day with some gusts in up to 25 kts during the afternoon. Otherwise, high level clouds will continue during the day. A weak disturbance will lead to a chance for showers late tonight into Monday. Have a prob 30 at the KCVG 30 hour TAF after 09Z. Also, a low level jet will offer a period of low level wind shear overnight.
OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times Monday through Wednesday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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