textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dropped the Flood Watch across our northern areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur into the early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

2) An extended period of dry weather will occur from Thursday into at least the early next week with temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level circulation evident on radar moving slowly east across southern Illinois/Indiana attm while a warm front is extending east from it across southern Ohio.

A fair amount of sun in the warm sector to the south of the front has allowed for our southern areas to destabilize this afternoon with ML Capes running in the 1000-1500 J/KG range. Most of the stronger activity is currently right along the frontal boundary. Expect the shower/thunderstorm activity to continue to work its way east- southeast through early evening with some additional scattered development possible in the warm sector this afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall will remain the main threat, although a lower end severe risk will be possible across southern portions of our area into early evening. The main threat will be damaging winds. However, a few rotating storms will also be possible, leading to a low end tornado threat. The best chance for this would be across our southeast.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High pressure will remain in place across the region through the weekend, providing for dry and seasonable conditions.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to sag slowly east- southeast across the region through early evening. Any thunder chances should remain south of the I-70 TAF sites, mainly affecting the southern TAF sites. MVFR to occasional IFR cigs and vsbys will be possible into early evening before clouds begin to scatter out. High pressure will build into the region tonight into Thursday. With mostly clear skies and light winds some MVFR to locally IFR br will be possible later tonight into early Thursday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.