textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a mention of patchy dense through the afternoon today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Foggy conditions today, becoming more widespread tonight into Monday morning.

2) Temperatures rising much above normal.

3) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Fog today/tonight.

Reduced visibilities have been occurring with the stratiform rain moving through the region. Rainfall is expected to end early this afternoon, but reduced surface visibilities are lingering behind the precip. Expect the potential for patchy dense fog through at least the early afternoon, with minor improvement expected from west to east. However, some patchy fog may linger in portions of the fa through the remainder of the day, particularly SE of I-71.

More impactful fog potential exists tonight into Monday morning. Guidance remains pretty consistent in showing widespread fog developing across the region. There is a high likelihood that visibilities decrease below one mile across our CWA, with several locations dropping to 1/4 mile visibility or less. This will result in potential impacts to the morning commute on Monday. A Dense Fog Advisory will likely be needed this evening.

It should also be mentioned that temperatures will drop to near or just below the freezing mark. While this doesn't appear to be a slam dunk scenario for freezing fog, cannot completely rule out some deposition onto pavements early Monday morning, particularly on bridges/overpasses. However, given the lack of a prolonged period of sub-freezing temperatures overnight (if they even occur), thinking that this potential remains very limited.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures rising much above normal.

H5 ridge will begin to propagate from the central CONUS towards the Midwest region early in the work week. A gradual warming trend will ensue underneath this synoptic feature, resulting in temperatures well above seasonal norms. While some modfication of this ridge occurs mid-week, persistent, southwesterly flow will continue to usher in a warm air mass across the Ohio Valley. Warmest temperatures are expected on Tuesday and Wednesday, approaching record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chance of showers/storms and increased winds mid to late week.

As the H5 ridge dampens mid-week, a surface low will develop out in the Northern Plains. ILN CWA will be placed in the warm sector of this low on Wednesday. There remains enough forcing and moisture availability to keep rain chances in the forecast on Wednesday, with fairly good model agreement on this potential. Cannot rule out a rumble of thunder given the weak instability present. Surface pressure gradient will tighten with the strengthening surface low to our west, which will increase the magnitude of southwesterly winds (aiding in the near record high temps). Sustained southwesterly winds of 15-25 MPH expected Wednesday, with gusts up to 35 MPH possible.

Another round of precipitation is expected late Thursday into Friday. Models continue to try and build in some instability in across the Ohio Valley, thus keeping at least a slight chance mention for a few rumbles of thunder. A cold front will eventually swing through the region Friday, ushering in cooler air for the weekend. As thermal profiles cool, cannot rule out some snow mixing in if pcpn lingers, particularly near/north of I-70.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Some improvement occurring with vsbys and CIGs this afternoon behind the rain. However, some LIFR CIGs are slow to scatter out across our western terminals, so there may still be periods of LIFR/IFR before improvement to MVFR/VFR occurs later this afternoon and evening.

High confidence in at least IFR vsbys tonight for all terminals due to fog development. There is an increasing likelihood for LIFR and VLIFR vsbys due to dense fog potential. Some of this fog will also lift and create VV reductions. Improvement of these low CIGs and vsbys will be slow Monday morning, but will eventually begin to scatter out by the late morning hours.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.