textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A clipper will track southeast of the area with snow ending this morning. Another system will bring widespread accumulating snow to the area Saturday into Saturday night. Arctic air to settle into the region from Saturday night through Monday, bringing bitterly cold wind chills. Temperatures look to warm up with above normal readings expected by mid week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Northwest flow aloft with clipper type system tracking southeast thru the Lower Ohio Valley this morning. Band of snow northeast of this low to track thru ILN/s southwest counties this morning. Looking at the track of the system - radar footprint and latest guidance - there is a southward trend to the snow with the highest amounts south of ILN/s area. Time lagged NBM looks slightly high - so have trimmed back amounts about a half inch or so. Have continued current headlines with the far southwest (Carroll/Owen Counties) most likely to reach 3 to 4 inch total accumulation through mid morning. Snow amounts drop off fairly quickly near/north of the Cincinnati metro area. Will to keep current headlines in place with travel impacts expected for this mornings commute. Snow ends quickly from northwest to southeast between 7 AM and 10 AM.

Temperatures will rise to highs from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south. These warmer temperatures should aid with road treatments and improving travel conditions through the day after snowfall ends.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

West to northwest flow aloft with high pressure offering a dry period tonight through mid day Saturday before the next system moves in from the northwest - as the leading edge of Arctic air advects into the region. Widespread snow develops across the area Saturday afternoon into early evening. Snow to liquid ratios are a major factor with this system as strong CAA causes 16:1 ratios at 18Z to increase to 22:1 Saturday night. Snowfall of 2 to 4 inches by evening continues overnight with a widespread snowfall totals of 3-6 inches continuing to be supported by ensemble guidance with the possibility of higher band setting south of I- 70. The snowfall forecast is tricky given the changing nature of the SLRs. Based on the latest guidance the placement of the winter storm watch looks good, with no changes planned at this time.

With temperatures tumbling and winds increasing as the snow tapers off, travel impacts from this snow may last longer and be more substantial when compared to the recent events this season. The combination of snow, wind, and cold will make Saturday night an unfavorable time to be outside or traveling.

Temperatures begin to fall Saturday with readings by evening from the middle teens northwest to near 30 southeast. Forecast lows Saturday night drop off to the single digits with wind chills below zero area wide.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The air mass following the system will be arctic in origin. Confidence is high in temperatures falling to around 0 to the single digits above zero by Sunday morning, with wind chills approaching 10 below zero (or lower in our western zones). The surface high will move near the Ohio River late Sunday night. Winds will be rather light, but temperatures are likely to be colder near the high's center across our south. Wouldn't be surprised to see several sites below zero at sheltered locations across northern Kentucky. With the winds factored in, wind chill will likely fall into Cold Weather Advisory criteria both Sunday morning and again Sunday night into Monday morning.

As the high exits to the east, temperatures will rebound into the 20s Monday afternoon, 30s Tuesday, 40s Wednesday, and potentially into the 50s in southwesterly flow to close the extended period on Thursday. Rain is likely ahead of a frontal system on Thursday.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Clipper type low pressure system to track through the Lower Ohio Valley today bringing light snow to the southern TAF sites.

The best coverage of snow will occur at KCVG/KLUK between 08z-12z. It is possible KDAY/KILN may get briefly grazed by light snow. Some IFR visibilities will be possible with the steadiest snow. Little to no snow or visibility restrictions are expected for KCMH/KLCK.

Visibilities improve quickly with the departure of the snow early this morning. Ceilings will remain MVFR through the remainder of the period. Light/VRB winds will become easterly round 5kts toward daybreak before going light/VRB by 18z and eventually westerly around 5-7kts later this aftn into tonight.

OUTLOOK...Snow with IFR to LIFR conditions possible Saturday afternoon through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for OHZ053>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ070>073- 077>082-088. KY...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for KYZ091>093. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ091>093- 099-100. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ089-090- 094>098. IN...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ058-059- 066-073>075. Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ080.