textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will be possible late Friday into Saturday morning and then again Monday into Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) An area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is sagging slowly south across central portions of our area early this morning. This is in association with a remnant boundary drifting south into the Ohio Valley. A more pronounced boundary will set up across northern portions of our area later today. As temperatures warm into the mid 70s this afternoon, some surface based instabilities will develop with several of the high res models suggesting scattered thunderstorms development in the vicinity of the boundary. While the better better upper level forcing is moving off to our east by this time, low/deep layer shear will be somewhat marginal for severe storms. As a result, if we are able to destabilize enough this afternoon, suppose a few stronger storms will be possible, especially closer to the boundary across our northern areas. The main threat this afternoon would be hail and gusty winds from any stronger storms that are able to develop.

A mid level short wave will lift up across the western Great Lakes Friday into Saturday, helping to push a weak cold front east into our area. Scattered showers and thunderstorm will be possible with this later Friday into Friday night. The severe threat with this system looks minimal too as the better upper level forcing will remain to our northwest.

A stronger mid level shortwave with an associated surface low will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley Monday and into the Great Lakes region through Tuesday. This will lead to another round of showers and thunderstorms Monday into Tuesday across our area. There appears to be a better severe threat with this system given the stronger dynamics and potential track of the surface low and/or the timing/placement of an associated cold front, but timing and the exact track of the low will eventually determine the overall severe threat for our region.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will push slowly south toward the Ohio Valley through mid morning. We will then get into a lull in precipitation heading into late morning, However,scattered showers and thunderstorms will redevelop as we destabilize heading into this afternoon. Some MVFR cigs will develop from the north later this morning and continue into this afternoon.

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off heading into this evening with VFR conditions expected through the later portions of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK....MVFR conditions will be possible Friday afternoon into Saturday, along with a chance for thunderstorms.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.