textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High wind warning allowed to expire. Wind advisory allowed to expire. Blowing dust advisory allowed to expire.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy conditions to continue to subside overnight.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected late Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.

3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Deep surface low pressure to track from the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight. Strong westerly 8H jet of 60-70kts pivoting around this low tracked thru Ohio this afternoon. This coincided with peak mixing and resulted in numerous reports of 50 to 60 mph generally across the northern half of ILN/s FA. The strongest reported wind gust was observed at KDAY 67kts (77 mph) at 1:15 PM. Several locations reported wind gusts at or above 70 mph - KDAY at 77 MPH (1:15 PM), OSU Airport 71 MPH (4:03 PM), and Union County Airport 70 MPH (4:01 PM).

As the low level jet continues to shift off to the east and we lose mixing with sunset - the winds will decrease as we head into early evening. Further decreasing overnight with occur and sustained speeds will fall below 10 mph as surface high pressure builds into the area.

The threat for blowing dust in west central Ohio will continue to diminish as winds decrease. Therefore, the high wind warning, wind advisory, and blowing dust advisory have been allowed to expire.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected late Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible.

Short wave over the Plains on Sunday will amplify as it head into the region Sunday night. Eastward progress will slow as the newly closed off low lifts north northeast. There remain some timing differences in the model suite in regards to the speed of the associated surface cold front. At this point, it appears that it will not move through the area until late Sunday night into Monday morning. Instability will be minimal at best at that time of day, but with very strong wind fields there remains a concern if any more robust convection can occur.

Increasing pressure gradient Sunday into Sunday night will lead to strengthening winds. Probability of wind gusts 40 mph or more are over 80 percent on Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 3) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

A vigorous cold front will be crossing the CWA early Monday. Mon high temps will = Sun night lows, with falling readings through the day. Columbus and eastern CWA are expected to be in the warm sector ahead of this front for a part of the morning, but this will be short-lived with a similar temperature trend - falling through the day but starting about 4-5 deg warmer than western CWA and DAY/CVG metro areas. There remains some bit of uncertainty in the numerical guidance, dependent on the time of the fropa. High end temps (again in the morning) are capped at 51-DAY, 47-CVG, and upper 50s-CMH. Low end values are near 30 for all metro areas. Forecast (NBM solution) looks to be favoring a slightly quicker passage and morning temps about 2 deg lower than forecast. The uncertainty looks to be due to outlying models being incorporated into the NBM forecast, which is a known feature and one of the pitfalls of using an ensemble forecast.

Deep nw flow behind the front will bring in a reinforcing shot of cold air. Lows Mon and Tues nights will be in the teens, with daytime highs Mon only reaching the upper 20s. Wed should reach into the mid 40s, but again this is the tail end of the forecast and the most likely to be adjusted as time moves forward.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Deep surface low pressure to track from the Great Lakes into southern Canada tonight. Strong westerly 8H jet of 60-70kts pivoting around this low was tracking thru Ohio this afternoon. This coincided with peak mixing and resulted in numerous reports of 50 to 60 mph generally across the northern half of ILN/s FA. The strongest reported wind gust was observed at KDAY 67kts (77 mph) at 17:15Z.

As the low level jet continues to shift off to the east and we lose mixing with sunset the winds will decrease as we head into early evening. Further decreasing overnight with occur and sustained speeds will fall below 10 kts before 12Z as surface high pressure builds into the area. Conditions will be VFR with just some mid and high clouds and mid level clouds.

OUTLOOK...Wind gusts at or above 30 kt likely Sunday afternoon through Sunday night possibly continuing into Monday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely late Sunday night into Monday morning with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Monday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.