textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to tweak Monday/Tuesday temperatures slightly downward from blended solution. Increased precip/thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon from blended solutions, with only slight change from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures persist through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a chance for strong to severe storms, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

2) Strong to severe storms are possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast.

Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Showers and storms across the western part of the forecast area will weaken this evening, eventually dissipating towards or perhaps a bit past midnight.

A greater chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with main timing from 19-06z, though marginal confidence in especially onset time with varying solutions from the CAMs. Several of the CAMs ramping up SBCAPE values to 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Effective bulk shear increases to between 20-25kts, but CAM solutions still show pretty unidirectional flow. Strong to severe winds will be the main threat, with DCAPEs ramping up to 900+ J/Kg. The more significant low level shear remains north of the area into northern Ohio/lower Michigan.

With plenty of low level moisture and PWATs ramping up to 1.6-1.8", HREF LPMM 24 hour QPF potential of 2 to 2.5" possible, so some potential for isolated minor flooding, though greater heavy rain threat remains west of the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms will affect KCVG/KLUK to KDAY to start the TAF period. All of this activity should weaken, but it is possible that it could make it to KILN before doing so. After the precipitation dissipates, will just be left with mid and high clouds. If there are sufficient breaks, then some visibility restrictions in fog may occur at KLUK.

For Tuesday, few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating. Winds will increase and gust over 20 kt again from about 15Z onwards. There is the potential for more storms late in the period. A fair bit of uncertainty where storms may develop, but greater probability through 0Z looks to be KCVG/KLUK to KDAY at this point.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.