textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms.

2) Extended period of cooler conditions settles in over the region midweek, continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Following the clearing rain and thunderstorms early this morning, a cold front will move into the area and stall during the day. While a few showers are possible along the front, a shortwave pivoting through the Ohio Valley will be the focus heading into Tuesday night. The shortwave generates a surface low pressure, which will ride up the front through the morning and early afternoon hours on Wednesday. The low pressure provides an additional round of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame, however, the severe potential remains low. Cooler air and some lingering showers are forecast for Wednesday night as the low pressure pulls away to the east.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A deep longwave trough settles in over the Midwest and Great Lakes by Thursday, establishing an extended period of below normal temperatures that will stretch through the weekend. The coolest temperatures are forecast on Friday and Saturday, with Saturday being the most likely day for frost potential. Additional frost is possible on Sunday morning as surface high pressure slides through the Ohio Valley.

The cooler air mass is going to support drier conditions, however, there will be a few opportunities for light rainfall. Lingering showers are expected on Thursday, with a secondary cold front providing additional showers Friday. Following the surface high pressure during the weekend, the next chance for rain is on Monday. While the long range pattern may change some, there is higher confidence (based on 6-10 & 8-14 day outlook from CPC) that the cooler pattern will persist into the second week of May.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

TAFs will remain complex over the next few hours as the lingering periods of light to moderate rain and embedded thunder eventually clears the area. MVFR CIGs develop behind the clearing rain, lingering into the morning and early afternoon hours before scattering.

Winds are quite variable early this morning following the thunderstorm complex. Westerly winds occurring from the thunderstorm activity likely turn back to the south or southeast due to the cold front still located west of the region. Winds gradually turn more southwesterly as the cold front stalls over Ohio this afternoon and early evening. Another system approached Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, providing more opportunities for MVFR CIGs and rainfall.

OUTLOOK....Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are possible at times into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.