textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure remains intact through the next few days, keeping the forecast dry through at least Thursday. Temperatures will be near normal to slightly above normal through early next week, with a more humid airmass returning to the region by Friday. With this return to a warmer and humid setup, a more active pattern is expected heading into the weekend, with chances for on- and-off showers and storms Friday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Clear skies and light winds should allow for some river valley FG to develop in the several hour period around daybreak, particularly along the OH Rvr and various waterways in the lower Scioto Valley and N/NE KY. Elsewhere, some patchy fog may be possible right around sunrise, but otherwise conditions will remain clear/quiet. Temps will bottom out in the mid to upper 50s, although some lower 50s can be expected in rural/sheltered locales.

Dry conditions will prevail through the near term period as sfc high pressure slowly drifts to the SE through the OH/TN Vlys. Slightly warmer conditions are on tap today than was the case Tuesday as SW LL flow slowly becomes re-established. While there will be /some/ smoke aloft still drifting through the area, it is not expected to be as pronounced as on Tuesday. There will also be some cirrus from time-to-time, but abundant sunshine will prevail through the daytime.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

The sfc high pressure centered to our SE today will slowly drift away from the region tonight through Thursday as NW flow aloft becomes more zonal. Although mid/high level clouds will slowly increase through the short term period, some sunshine is still expected Thursday.

Temps tonight dip into the upper 50s and lower 60s before rebounding into the mid to upper 80s Thursday afternoon amidst a mix of sun and clouds.

Conditions should remain dry through the short term period, even as a more humid airmass slowly moves back in from the SW. The main focus for this weekend's active weather will be the approach of a compact cutoff low that will be in the ArkLaTex region Thursday before it crawls to the NE into the lower/mid MS Rvr Vly by Friday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Low chances of rain early Fri will gradually increase until Sat, when they ramp up to 90% in the afternoon. Sun and Mon will both exhibit a decrease in rain chances overnight and ramp up in the latter part of the day with the higher 60-70% chance found in the southeast for both days. Rain chances linger for the remainder of the forecast.

Thursday night, an upper level low over OK will be cut off from the mean westerly flow found to the north. This will have the low slowly move towards the Ohio Valley as it weakens into an open trough. The trough axis will cross the region sometime Sun, leaving a broad mean trough over the Midwest and Ohio Valley through Mon. Westerly flow to the north finally pushes its way into our CWA overnight Mon. With significant lingering lower moisture found through the remainder of the forecast, any upper level impulses or daytime heating will initiate some shower activity, activity that should notably decrease at night.

Surface features through the forecast time will be muted with two exceptions. First being a warm front slowly lifting north through Fri, second being a surface low tracking northeast, ultimately crossing the CWA with the passage of the upper trough.

Temps in the mid-upper 80s start out as warm as they'll be on Fri, but only drop near 80/mid 80s from Sat through Mon. Slightly warmer mid 80's are proffered by guidance for Tue/Wed. Overnight, lows in the mid-upper 60s will be the rule with the exception of some lower 60s found to the north on Sun night.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

After the BR/FG dissipates very early in the TAF period, conditions will return to VFR area-wide through the daytime amidst mostly clear skies.

There will some patches of smoke aloft again today, but concentration and associated obscuration should be less pronounced today than was the case Tuesday. There will also be some patches of mid clouds filtering in from the NW as cirrus moves in from the SW late in the daytime, but skies should nevertheless remain mostly clear through the period.

Light SW winds this morning will increase to around 8-10kts this afternoon before subsiding once again past 00z. Some river valley BR/FG is again expected at KLUK in the several hours around daybreak Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Storms will be possible Friday night through Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.