textproduct: Wilmington

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Elongated trough axis extends southwestward into the Ohio Valley from the northeast US this morning. Jet dynamics support strengthening high pressure centered over the Great Lakes. Surface pressure gradient tightens this morning, providing stronger northeasterly winds than previous days. Elevated moisture has been pushed off to the south so there will be far fewer upper level clouds today. Instead, expect scattered fair-weather cumulus throughout the afternoon.

Upper level ridge and surface high pressure become centered over the Ohio Valley Wednesday night. As the high pressure slides more to the southeast, temperatures begin to moderate with 80s area wide Thursday. The ridge continues to breakdown over the Great Lakes late in the week as several weak shortwaves move east. There still remains some timing differences on when sufficient moisture and forcing will align well enough to produce higher confidence in showers and thunderstorms. For now, sometimes Saturday appears to be the best time window. As a trough moves into the northeast US Sunday, a weak front stretches west to east across the area keeping chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast.

There are some subtle signs that another ridge may try to build back over the Great Lakes and into southern Canada for early next week. The close proximity of the front near or south of the Ohio River results in high uncertainty for the weather across the local area for this period.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions. Light north to northeast winds increase throughout the morning, becoming a bit gusty into the afternoon. Expect wind gusts approaching 20 to 22 knots at times. Wind gradually decrease below 10 knots after 03Z Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...Chance of thunderstorms Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

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