textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front moves through this evening and overnight, bringing chances for rain and slightly cooler conditions into Saturday. Warm temperatures return Sunday through the middle of next week with rainfall chances resuming Monday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Cloud cover continues to increase across the area ahead of an approaching cold front. As expected, the overall coverage of showers is quite scattered, and this will remain the case as the front slides through. Still cannot rule out a few elevated thunderstorms, with a narrow ribbon of elevated instability across the area.

High pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Saturday, providing dry conditions with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south. Clouds linger the longest across southern portions of the area, but should begin to break during the afternoon hours.

Mid-level ridging builds over the Ohio Valley Sunday and persists through the entire work week. A few weak disturbances moving within the northern periphery of the ridge provide chances for showers and thunderstorms during the period. Surface moisture does increase northward through the Mississippi River region into the Ohio Valley, but each day lacks a significant forcing mechanism, decrease chances for any widespread severe weather. Instead, moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. Anything beyond that would be associated with a weak low pressure missing the region to the north.

A trailing cold front Sunday night into Monday looks to be the most favorable day at this time for providing a more elevated chance for showers and thunderstorm for the local area. However, this may change as confidence increases in the forecast for next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Cold front is moving into the area this evening, bringing the chance for showers and MVFR CIGs to area TAF sites. Cannot rule a scattered thunderstorm, but given the expected coverage, mentions of TS were excluded from the 18Z TAF.

Winds and wind gusts relax this evening but will shift to the north with the passage of the front. As high pressure shifts to the northeast into Saturday, winds will be out of the northeast tomorrow, turning more easterly by the end of the period.

MVFR CIGs across the area are likely broken to scattered for Thursday, with low confidence in the exact timing for the return to prevailing VFR conditions at each location.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.