textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A series of weak disturbances will track through the northern Ohio Valley through midweek, with the best chance for some light rain locally focusing on Tuesday. Otherwise, a much warmer pattern will evolve this week, especially toward the second half of the workweek, with a better chance for more widespread rain expected for late Thursday through Friday. Colder conditions will return for this weekend, with the potential for some patchy light wintry precipitation.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Quasi-zonal flow aloft has become established in the region, with a series of weak disturbances progressing nearly W to E through this flow into the Great Lakes region. The first one this morning will miss the local area to the N, keeping the wintry pcpn out of the ILN FA. The main impact from this system is going to be some enhanced cloud cover near/N of I-70 into the first part of the daytime, with some clearing expected into the afternoon as some cirrus blanket the region. This will allow for some filtered sunshine during the afternoon, with highs reaching into the upper 40s near/N of I-70 to the mid 50s near/S of the OH Rvr.

As the sfc high departs the OH Vly to the E through daybreak and beyond, SW sfc flow will become established and will increase into mid morning and beyond as diurnally-driven mixing develops within the burgeoning WAA pattern. This will allow for SW winds on the order of 10-15kts, with sporadic gusts up to 20kts, for late morning through mid afternoon before subsiding once again toward sunset.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

Temps tonight will be quite a bit warmer than in recent days, dipping into the mid to upper 30s amidst mostly cloudy skies.

Even as the system to the N of the region departs to the E into the afternoon today, another one will quickly approach by late tonight into Tuesday, with a bit more of a southern track bringing some light rain showers to the area by the afternoon. This will be most widespread in central OH where the combination of lift/moisture availability will be the greatest. However, the system will be /very/ progressive, so the activity should pull quickly to the E of the ILN FA into Tuesday evening. Total rainfall from this quick- moving system will generally be a tenth of an inch or less, with some spots near the Tri-State into EC/SE IN likely remaining mainly dry as lift/moisture overlap will be much more meager.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Surface high pressure will quickly build into the middle Ohio Valley behind the departing shortwave Tuesday night with some sunshine returning on Wednesday. The source region of the air mass will keep temperatures above normal for January.

Meanwhile, a southern stream disturbance will be moving onshore over Baja California mid-week. This disturbance will lift northeast on Thursday with an increase in rain shower potential late in the day coincident with a warm front. This will exit early Friday... however, a stronger shortwave with an associated surface low lifting into the Great Lakes will bring more showers later on Friday through Friday night. At this time, both the EPS and the GEFS bring a cold front across our CWA Friday night into early Saturday. Will have to get more confidence on the timing of the frontal passage in order to ascertain the magnitude of any instability and therefore, thunderstorm intensity. 12Z GEFS and EPS show probability of 24-hour QPF exceeding an inch ranging between 10 and 30 percent. In any case, widespread rain will be likely as the front moves through with cooler temperatures on tap by later Saturday into Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect generally VFR conditions through the TAF period, with mid clouds streaming through the nrn OH Vly with some cirrus region-wide. Some cirrus will blanket the area through the daytime with some indications of some better LL moisture filtering in from the SW toward 12z Tuesday. This may lead to MVFR/IFR conditions toward daybreak Tuesday, but did not yet have confidence to include in the KCVG 30-hr TAF at the moment. Light southerly winds will increase to around 10-12kts, with gusts of 15-20kts by late morning through the afternoon. Winds will subside to around 5kts once again toward/beyond sunset.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs will be possible early Tuesday and again Tuesday night into early Wednesday. VSBYs will also have the potential to be reduced early Tuesday morning and again Tuesday night. Gusty winds in excess of 35 knots will be possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.