textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures Monday and Tuesday were adjusted down from the NBM. Wind gusts were increased this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions persist through Tuesday. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, moving through the region late Tuesday night bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

2) Strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast.

Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

Around the periphery of the mid and upper level ridge a corridor of moderate instability will allow thunderstorms to move into portions of west central Ohio and eastern Indiana late in the afternoon or early evening hours. The instability diminishes which will allow the storms to weaken quickly. Chance PoPs are limited to eastern Indiana and western Ohio, generally west of I-75.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Moderate instability develops Tuesday with SBCAPE values around 2500 K/KG developing in the warm sector during the afternoon - ahead of an approaching sfc cold front.

Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow with effective shear of 20 to 25 kts. Expect damaging winds with blowing segments to the the main threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, with this threat focused over the northwest. The severe threat decreases with eastward due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening or into the overnight as instability is decreasing.

PWATs increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches which will offer heavy rain rates and the potential for localized flooding.

There continues to be some uncertainty regarding exact timing but at this time the most favored timeframe looks to be from 3 pm Tuesday afternoon to 3 AM Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail sans KLUK where morning valley fog has developed with MVFR to IFR visibility restrictions. The fog burns off quickly this morning. Few to scattered cumulus clouds will develop with heating this afternoon. Storms that develop west of the TAF sites decrease in coverage and intensity as they move east - so just have some mid and high level clouds later in the day into this evening. The best chance for observing a storm is at KDAY but even there the threat is too low to mention in the forecast.

Southerly winds at 5 to 10 kt this morning increase during the day with gusts up to 25 kts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.