textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the overall message this morning. Persistent cold lingers into this morning, with additional wintry conditions possible at mid week and at the end of the week into the weekend. The snow at the end of the week will be accompanied by a reinforcement to the bitterly cold temperatures.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold temperatures continue through this morning.

2) Additional chances for wintry precipitation and gusty winds are forecast at mid week.

3) Another round of of very cold conditions are expected for the end of the work week into next weekend. Some snow is possible over the weekend as a system moves by to the south of the region.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Arctic high pressure to build east-southeast thru the region today. Wind speeds will relax overnight as the ridge axis builds into the area, but temperatures will fall to lows in the single digits. Conditions improve above headline criteria by mid morning as temperatures rebound to highs the upper teens north to the mid 20s south.

To learn about the warning signs of hypothermia and frostbite as well as how to protect your livestock and pets, visit www.weather.gov/safety/cold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Surface low tracks from the Mid MS Valley Tuesday night thru the Great Lakes Wednesday. The low passes to the north of the region, with the associated cold front passing thru ILN/s FA late in the day into Wednesday night. Ahead of the cold front, a strong southerly low level jet of 55-60 KT develops Tuesday night. A period of gusty winds ranging from 30 to 40 mph is probable during the late morning into the afternoon.

Moreover, as saturation occurs expect light snow to develop by aftn generally along and northwest of I-71. With a mix of rain and snow over the southeast. Moisture depth is limited and does not involve the DGZ. Any light snow accumulation is expected to be less than an inch and mainly north of I-70.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

Confidence continues to increase in another period of very cold temperatures from Friday through Sunday. A broad area of Canadian high pressure will sink into the Great Lakes region. This polar airmass will be responsible for temperatures falling to around 20 degrees below normal. Currently, the coldest day of this timeframe looks to be Friday overnight into Saturday. Expecting high temperatures in the single digits to teens during this period with feels like temperatures again falling to the negatives for nearly the entire area.

In addition to heralding in the cold temperatures, the robust Canadian high pressure will play a key role in the much talked about upcoming weekend storm. Pretty interesting setup here, with the majority of interactions happening at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The Canadian high previously mentioned will be driven by a ridge of high pressure; this will interact with an upper trough moving across the southwestern US. This trough will act to advect plentiful moisture out of the Gulf into the Tennessee Valley area. The Ohio/Tennessee Valleys will be under the right entrance region of a potent jet Saturday into Sunday, which will provide plenty of lift across the region. The big question for our area remains to be how far north this moisture can be transported into the Ohio Valley/ how suppressing the Canadian high pressure will be.

With that being said, if we do get precipitation from this system, high confidence in p-type being all snow, given our location on the northern extent of the precipitation shield combined with the arctic air mass we'll have in place. Still too early to add accumulating snowfall into the HWO with any sort of confidence, given that subtle shifts in track of the system, strength of the high, and timing differences will still need to be ironed out. However, there is a possibility that accumulating snowfall may occur sometime between Saturday into Sunday, especially for our northern KY/southern OH counties.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Arctic high pressure to build across the region today. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period with only a period of mid to high level clouds this morning and just some high level clouds later today into tonight. As a 55-60 kt low level jet develops ahead of the next system expect a period of low level wind shear to develop overnight.

West surface winds at less than 10 kts back to the southwest around 10 kts today and then drop slightly to 6-8 kts this evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059- 066-073>075-080.