textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes
KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and thunderstorms expected at times from today through Saturday with the potential for heavy rainfall and a few severe storms.
2) Hot and humid next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
A surface low moves across the the Great Lakes today pushing a trailing cold front into the Ohio Valley. This front will help spark scattered thunderstorms today with the best coverage in the afternoon and evening hours during peak heating. Moderate instability (1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and descent shear (40-50 knots) overlap which could lead to some storms becoming strong to severe. Strong wind gusts are the main threat along with locally heavy rainfall.
Some shower and storm chances persist tonight and into Friday due to the front stalling over the area. The next bigger push of showers and thunderstorms likely occurs Friday evening and Friday night when another surface low and upper level shortwave trough move through the Ohio Valley. Heavy rain looks to be the bigger threat compared to severe on Friday night when a LLJ comes into the area and PWATs approach 2 inches.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
Beginning Monday, an anomalous upper level ridge builds across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes. Persistent surface flow out of the gulf states continuously brings in warm, moist air. Forecast highs by mid week are likely to be in the lower 90s along with dew points in the 70s. Lows are only expected to be in the 70s offering little relief.
AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
VFR cumulus develops today. By the afternoon, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of an approaching front. Coverage peaks in the late afternoon and early evening before diminishing overnight. Model guidance is starting to hint at some ceiling and visibility restrictions late tonight with a stalled front overhead. However, confidence in restrictions occurring remains low.
Light southwesterly flow increases to around 10 knots today. Winds diminish again after sunset.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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