textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures through Tuesday were adjusted down from the NBM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions persist into early next week. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

2) Strong to severe storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures have warmed efficiently into the afternoon as southwesterly winds advect warmth and moisture over the region. Scattered fair weather cumulus is the only lingering cloud cover following the warm front shifting north.

Heading into Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will warm a few more degrees from where they are today as southwesterly flow persists. Remnant cloud cover from thunderstorm activity occurring west of the region could inhibit daily highs, especially on Tuesday when the cold front is closer. For Monday, confidence is increasing on overnight thunderstorm activity surviving into Illinois through the morning hours, reaching Indiana by the afternoon. Even though this activity will be far removed from the cold front, a corridor of instability supporting the thunderstorms may allow the complex to approaching the Ohio/Indiana border late in the afternoon or early evening hours. Despite this increasing confidence, confidence is also high that the corridor of instability ends quite suddenly into Ohio, causing the complex to weaken quickly. PoPs are limited to eastern Indiana and western Ohio, but the cloud cover and remnant cold-pool air mass moving in during the afternoon would help limit or bring relief to the afternoon temperatures.

For Tuesday, daytime heating will support thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening so the best chance for achieving the warmest temperatures will be across the Scioto Valley.

Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2) As the cold front approaches the region on Tuesday, conditions appear favorable for a clear warm sector and effective heating into Tuesday afternoon. Although the primary trough and better forcing will miss the region to the north, enough height falls and wind flow exists to drive thunderstorm activity across the area Tuesday afternoon and evening. The slower timing of the front limits the higher severe probabilities to northwestern portions of the area, but most will still see thunderstorm activity even if it is not severe.

Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow and about 20 to 30 knots of shear. 0-3km shear is about 20 to 25 knots so this will support upscaled bowing segments and the associated damaging wind threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, but this threat would be focused in the previously mentioned northwest zones (eastern Indiana, western Ohio). The overall severe threat decreases with eastward due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening or into the overnight.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions except for some valley fog at KLUK overnight. Winds are persistent out of the south or southwest. Occasional gusts over 20 knots are possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.