textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

An upper level trough will move into the area for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing rain on Wednesday that will change to snow Wednesday afternoon and night. Much cooler air is then expected for Thursday and beyond, with another chance of snow on Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

Low pressure passing to the north of the region today has provided breezy conditions throughout the first part of the day, with temperatures gradually rising into the 40s and lower 50s by late afternoon. As anticipated, winds have gusted between 25 and 35 mph throughout the late morning and will continue to do so into the afternoon before gradually subsiding into the evening hours. Southwest winds persist into the overnight with the cold front approaching the area from the northwest by Wednesday morning. Temperatures are well above normal overnight, and locations may stay above their typical daily high temperature for this time of year.

While much of the day was dry, jet stream dynamics begin to become more favorable for a band of rainfall to develop during the early morning hours across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky. The best potential will be across northern Kentucky and southern Ohio around daybreak. Confidence is high that all precipitation will consist of rain during the near term period.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Attention shifts to the advancing cold front approaching west-central Ohio around 8am with temperatures dropping some 10 to 15 degrees into the afternoon. A shortwave moving southward through the Great Lakes will aid in the development of a line of showers along the cold front as it moves through from 8am to noon. Depending on the depth of these showers, precipitation type may vary a bit. Opted for a mention of rain/snow mix given the temperatures in the lower 40s ahead of the front. The reality is there may be some light rain showers ahead of the front with a quick transition to snow as the front moves through. As temperatures continue to cool behind the front, additional snow showers are forecast as the shortwave shifts through the area during the late afternoon and early evening hours. Road temperatures will cool, increasing the potential for slick spots wherever the showers linger.

The deep trough persists over the region Wednesday night, with scattered snow showers (potentially aided by Lake Michigan enhancement) around the area into Thursday. After the above normal start to the temperatures Wednesday morning, Thursday morning may come as quite the shock with temperatures 30 degrees cooler. Northwest winds, combined with these cooler temperatures, will result in feels-like temperatures in the single-digits to near zero across north-central Ohio to start the day on Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The main theme for the long term period is a continued stretch of below normal temperatures with light snow chances scattered throughout.

Thursday is expected to remain cooler as the lingering cold air mass is in place, but it will not be the coldest day of the period. Still some uncertainty with the overall snow potential for Thursday, but some light snow is possible on the backside of the low pressure. The potential for accumulating snow continues to decrease.

A ridge briefly builds in over the region Thursday night, but the next system will quickly replace it Friday morning, increasing the potential for precipitation Friday morning through Friday afternoon. Accumulating snow certainly appears possible (>1" at 30% across a large portion of the area) with the leading shortwave. The Friday morning commute may be impacted before temperatures climb later into the afternoon.

The first surge of colder air arrives behind the cold front that moves through the area Saturday morning. Wind chills drop to near zero by Saturday evening, with values in the single digits to below zero Sunday morning. Some light snow is possible within the trough, but a significant accumulation is not forecast.

After a brief pause in the coldest conditions Monday afternoon, another cold air surge is expected Tuesday with another trough digging through the Great Lakes region. Another round of light snow would be expected Monday night into Tuesday, with confidence fairly high that amounts will remain light. However, given the colder temperatures leading up to this secondary event, even light snowfall could lead to impacts. Following the light snow, another round of bitterly cold temperatures is forecast, with values nearing -10 degrees Tuesday morning. This multi-day cold stretch remains highlighted in the HWO.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR will continue for the early part of the TAF period although there is low level wind shear through around 06Z. As a system passes just south of the region, ceilings will lower to MVFR, eventually falling below 2kft and there may be some MVFR visibility restrictions as well. It is not out of the question that there could be a brief period of light rain, mainly from KCVG/KLUK to KILN, but even if that does occur it will have no affect on flight category. A cold front will drop across the region during the day. This will cause winds to veer and strengthen. In addition, there will be some scattered snow showers as this moves through. Northwest winds will gust to near 30 kt during the latter part of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities as well as wind gusts to 30 kt are possible Friday and then again on Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.