textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No substantial changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring more showers and storms to the region midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

A couple of weak impulses will move across the region ahead of a more substantial short wave tracking into the western Great Lakes Saturday afternoon. At the surface, a pre-frontal trough will cross the forecast area during the afternoon with a trailing cold front moving through during the evening. Showers and some storms will occur along and ahead of the pre-frontal trough.

There is some spread in solutions in regards to how much instability may develop in the pre-trough environment. If stratus develops and remains stubborn, then instability will be quite limited and the potential for any stronger convection will be very low. But if there is some heating, then more robust convection will be possible that could lead to strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary concern. Joint probabilities of at least 500 J/kg CAPE and 0-6km shear at least 30 kt on both the HREF and REFS max out around 30 to 40 percent from central Ohio to northeast Kentucky with lower probabilities further west.

Any stronger storms could produce a narrow corridor of heavier rain. While this will be quite transient, there could be some localized flood concerns, especially for areas where the ground is saturated.

KEY MESSAGE 2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring more showers and storms to the region midweek.

Guidance suite has been trending towards a stronger short wave pushing into the region Wednesday night. Associated surface low will pass north of the area on Wednesday. Warm front out ahead of the low will lift across the region on Tuesday bringing an initial chance of showers and storms, but better chance will occur as the trailing cold front moves through Wednesday into Wednesday night. Precipitable water is forecast to increase to over 200 percent of normal. This will lead to the potential for heavy rainfall with these showers and storms. AI severe weather outlooks have been diverging, possibly due to variations in available instability. Nonetheless, still monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms as well.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Ohio Valley in the warm sector with broad mid level ridge over the eastern CONUS. Expect VFR conditions thru this evening into the overnight hours. There is a model signal for the development of a few showers late tonight in the moist southwesterly flow. Have held off on any mention in the TAF/s overnight due to the limited coverage. Some stratus may develop Saturday morning with moderate confidence on whether this will result in an MVFR ceiling. Showers and thunderstorms will affect the TAF sites along a pre-frontal trof that sweeps east thru the area between 15Z and 21Z. A period of MVFR ceilings will be possible Saturday evening with the frontal passage.

South winds are expected at less than 10 kts overnight. Low level wind shear will develop across all terminals after 05Z and continue to around 13Z. Southwest winds increase to around 15 kts Saturday with gusts to around 25 kts during the late morning and afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Saturday night. MVFR visibilities and thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon. MVFR conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.