textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased wind gusts for Saturday. Increased messaging in AFD and HWO for next week mid week system.

KEY MESSAGES

1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring additional precipitation chances to the region Monday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

While a few showers will be possible overnight, most of the precipitation activity will hold off until the day on Saturday as a system moves through. While thunderstorms will be possible across the entire region, thunderstorms will likely become more organized as they move to the east and therefore there is a higher potential for severe weather across eastern portions of the region across central Ohio, the Scioto River Valley region, and portions of northern Kentucky. While damaging wind is the primary threat, hail and isolated tornadoes will also be possible. This threat move move out of the region before dark. There will be a lull in the precipitation before the frontal boundary moves through. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be gusty on Saturday with wind gusts around 30 to 40 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2) An unsettled weather pattern will bring additional precipitation chances to the region Monday night through Thursday.

While a few showers and storms will be possible Monday night into Tuesday. The main impacts are Tuesday night through Thursday as a stronger storm system moves through. There will be the potential for heavy rain and renewed flooding concerns Tuesday night through Wednesday evening. Thunderstorms will also be possible. Cannot rule out a strong to severe storm. Outside of thunderstorms, winds will be gusty around 35 to 45 mph possible, if not higher, Wednesday into Wednesday night. Much colder air rushes in Wednesday night into Thursday with rain transitioning over to snow showers. Snow showers will continue during the day on Thursday with the temperatures staying in the 30s across most locations on Thursday. Due to blended nature, NBM is not capturing the amplification with this system and therefore current forecast will likely need to be adjusted as it gets closer in time including colder temperatures on Thursday, increasing precipitation chances, increasing winds, and changes in precipitation types.

Another system will move through late in the week on Friday, there is more uncertainty with this system at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Have LLWS for the first couple hours of the TAF period this morning. Winds pick up today with wind gusts around 30 knots along with showers and some thunderstorms. There will be the potential for some higher gusts as the line moves through, however confidence in specific values was not high enough to include at this time. After the initial thunderstorms move through, showers will linger longer. There will then be a lull in the shower activity before more with the frontal boundary. MVFR cigs will move into the region during the day. There will potentially be a brief return to VFR conditions late in the afternoon and early evening before additional MVFR cigs work into the area. VFR conditions are expected by the end of the TAF period for the area TAF sites except KCMH and KLCK where MVFR cigs will still be possible. Wind gusts will linger into Saturday night before decreasing late in the overnight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible into Sunday morning. MVFR conditions are possible Monday night through Wednesday. There is also the potential for IFR conditions. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday. Wind gusts around 30 to 40 knots possible for Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.