textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur later this evening into the overnight ahead of a cold front. A few strong to severe storms will be possible late this evening and into the overnight hours.

2) A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. A drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the region for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms are ongoing back to our west early this afternoon in association with a mid level short wave lifting northeast across the mid Mississippi Valley. This activity is expected to gradually weaken as it moves east toward our area and outruns the better forcing in addition to encountering a somewhat drier/less unstable airmass in place across our area. That being said, some of these showers will likely make it into at least western portions of our area later this afternoon into early evening.

Meanwhile, as areas back to our west further destabilize this afternoon, additional showers and storms are expected to develop. This activity will eventually consolidate into more of a line of showers and thunderstorms that will move east-southeast into our area late this evening and into the overnight hours. By this time, the better surface based instabilities just off to our west will begin to pinch off, but as the stronger forcing moves into our area, this may still be enough for a few strong to severe storms. The best chance for severe still looks to be across our far western to southwest areas in the 11 PM to 3 AM time frame. Bowing segments with damaging winds remain the primary severe threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A slow moving cold front will sag southeast across our area Tuesday into Wednesday. Some additional mid level energy moving into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys will help a surface wave/low spin up along the front, which will then move along or just south of the Ohio River through Tuesday night. There is some uncertainty as to the exact placement of the front through Tuesday afternoon, but some weak destabilization along and southeast of the front will likely lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development through the day. The best chance for this appears to be across our southeastern areas.

More widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread our area Tuesday night in association with the surface wave. Given the more southern trend, any severe threat looks minimal at this time with this feature. Pcpn will taper off later Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as the low moves off to the east and the cold front moves through. Behind the front, a drier and cooler airmass will settle into the area for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A low pressure system lifting northeast across the Great Lakes tonight will lead to a developing chance for showers and thunderstorms this evening and into the early morning hours. This will result in a lowering cloud deck through this evening with MVFR cigs and vsbys developing heading into the overnight hours. The best chance for thunderstorms will be in the 03Z-07Z time frame and will cover this with a prob30. Shower activity will taper off from the west later tonight. MVFR cigs will persist through Tuesday morning before lifting into VFR heading into Tuesday afternoon.

South to southeast winds will gust in the 20 to 30 knot range at times into tonight, with stronger gusts possible with the thunderstorms late this evening into the early morning hours.

OUTLOOK....Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are possible at times into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.