textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop today ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected later tonight with a few strong to severe storms possible. Windy conditions are expected at times during this stretch.

2) A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A developing surface low over the central Plains early this morning will lift northeast into the Great Lakes region through Monday. As it does, an attendant strong cold front will push east through the mid Ohio Valley tonight. Ahead of this, a 50-70 knot 850 mb jet will develop into our area late this morning and then translate east across the region through tonight. With some daytime mixing, gusty south winds will develop later this morning and continue through this afternoon. The strongest winds will be across our northwest where gusts to around 50 mph will be possible this afternoon. In the strong WAA, temperatures will be well above normal today with afternoon highs in the 70-75 degree range.

Moisture advection up into our area ahead of the front will eventually allow for showers to spread in from the west late this evening and then push east across our area through the overnight hours. Instability looks to remain marginal and generally remain off to our west into this evening. However, given the strong forcing, will likely see a narrow line of embedded thunderstorms work into at least our western areas toward midnight and then weaken as they progress east through the early morning hours. Given the strong wind fields, some damaging wind gusts will be possible with any stronger embedded storms and suppose it will be tough to rule out a brief spin up tornado within the embedded line of storms. The best severe threat would likely be along and to the west of the I-75 corridor.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Strong CAA will develop behind the front late tonight into Monday morning. This will result in continued gusty winds in the 30-40 mph range into the day on Monday. We will see early morning highs with temperatures falling through the morning hours before leveling off heading into the afternoon. As some wrap around moisture works into the area from the northwest, scattered snow showers will develop later Monday morning and into the afternoon before tapering off heading into Monday evening. Some light snow accumulations will be possible with the stronger snow showers, mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces.

Lows Monday night will drop into the teens with highs on Tuesday remaining below freezing for much of the area.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A few spotty showers have developed across central Ohio this morning in association with a warm front lifting north through the area. These showers should push off to the north in the next hour or two with mainly just mid and high level clouds then persisting through this afternoon. Southerly winds will increase through late morning with gusts in the 35 to 45 knot range possible through this afternoon. Showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop just ahead of a cold front tonight and affect the TAF sites mainly in the 04Z-08Z time frame. Southwest winds will remain gusty to around 35 knots tonight with stronger gusts possible with shower activity tonight. LLWS will also be possible this evening and into the overnight hours.

As the front moves through, winds will become more southwesterly but remain gusty, with MVFR cigs developing late tonight into Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible into Monday and then again Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072-077>080. KY...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>099. IN...Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 AM EDT Monday for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080.