textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Cold Weather Advisory for northern portions of the area tonight into Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

Sheared out mid level energy will pivot down through the mid Ohio Valley today. This will lead to an increase in clouds and perhaps a few flurries. On the backside of this, some partial clearing will develop heading into tonight but there is some uncertainty as to how fast this will occur and also if additional clouds will redevelop later tonight into Thursday morning. As a result, the temperature forecast for tonight is somewhat tricky. For now will range lows from -5 or so in the north to the low single digits in the south. It looks like the best chance to meet Cold Weather Advisory criteria tonight will be across our north so will issue one there. Will hold off across the south attm due to the uncertainty. On Friday night, a reinforcing shot of arctic air arrives on developing northerly flow when the early stages of cyclogenesis begin over the southeast CONUS. Forecast lows are in the single digits below zero along with 5-10 mph winds. This may result in wind chills from -15 to -20 F late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

We are seeing some patchy fog and IFR cigs trying to develop in the very cold airmass across our area. Since it looks to be spotty, will hold off on including anything in the TAFs early this morning. Otherwise, expect to see some 25-35k stratocumulus develop as a weak upper level disturbance moves through the region this afternoon. The clouds will linger into this evening before partial clearing/VFR conditions develop overnight and into Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings possible Thursday afternoon in nrn TAF sites, and at all locations Friday afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-072. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-071>074-080. Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ070-071-073-074- 077>082-088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ089>100. IN...Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for INZ050-058-059. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Thursday for INZ050-058-059. Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ066-073>075-080.