textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Frost Advisory has been expanded across the entire area for tonight into early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak low pressure system will bring scattered light rain showers back into the area late tonight through the daytime today.

2) Some frost is likely tonight and again Saturday night, with impacts to sensitive vegetation likely. Freeze conditions are also possible in northern parts of the local area each night as well.

3) Extended period of cooler conditions settles into the region through the weekend, with slowly moderating temperatures into early next week. A seasonably mild pattern with several chances for light rain will evolve through most of the next week before more chilly air returns late week into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Low pressure over Central Ohio and attendant cold front will push east of the area as a mid level short wave within a broad trof translates quickly east. Numerous showers east of I-71 will diminish by mid afternoon as the front pushes off to the east. Can not rule out a few post frontal showers mainly across the north as steep low level lapse rates develop. An isolated rumble of thunder and and small hail will be possible given the cold thermal profile. Drier conditions will develop thru the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Evening clouds give way to clearing as clouds diminish thru the evening from the northwest. Clearing combined with light surface flow will set the stage for frost development across the area and possibly some freezing conditions over the northwest overnight. The frost advisory has been expanded to cover the entire area overnight into early Saturday.

The setup for widespread frost and possible freezing conditions looks more favorable Saturday night into Sunday morning as the center of surface high builds drifts into the TN Valley. Will continue to highlight this potential in the HWO.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

A Persistent deep trough will remain across the ern CONUS through much of the next week. This will result in an extended stretch of below normal temperatures, with a few brief warm ups to near normal readings Monday and Tuesday before cooler air moves back into the region late week.

Several chances for rain will also develop early next week as several disturbances propagate east within a more zonal flow, providing chances for rain Monday through Thursday. A return to cooler temperatures is likely by late next week into the following weekend.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Surface low pressure and its attendant cold front moving east thru Ohio will offer a chance for rain showers - mainly across the Central Ohio TAF sites thru mid afternoon. VFR ceilings may briefly drop to MVFR this afternoon in the post frontal environment before lifting and scattering out later this afternoon into this evening.

Clouds will decrease with skies trending mainly clear and just some high level clouds. Diurnally driven VFR cumulus clouds will develop Saturday due to steep low level lapse rates.

Northwest winds will gust up to 22 kts this afternoon and then diminish to less than 10 kts overnight. North to northwest winds are expected around 10 kts Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Monday and Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Saturday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.