textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

An upper level disturbance will bring widespread rain to the region Thursday night into Friday. Above normal temperatures will persist through the first half of the weekend. More seasonable conditions will return early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/

A weak surface trough will continue to push off to our east this afternoon ahead of a weak cold front that will drop southeast across the region tonight. Areas of drizzle and light rain across the area attm will taper off from the west through the rest of the afternoon and into early evening. Some guidance is trying to hint at some partial clearing working up into our southern areas this evening, but with a fair amount of low clouds still in place and then some low level CAA developing behind the front, will hang on to the clouds through the night. Lows tonight will range from the upper 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/

Mid level ridging will begin to build in from the southwest Wednesday into Wednesday night as surface high pressure shifts east across the Tennessee Valley. This will lead to a decreasing cloud trend during the day on Wednesday. Mostly clear skies will then persist into Wednesday night with some increase in high level clouds ahead of the next system possible late. Temperatures will be above normal with highs on Wednesday in the upper 40s to lower 50s and lows Wednesday night in the mid to upper 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

SW flow aloft on the back side of an eastward retreating upper ridge will bring moisture to the region, especially as the direction of flow remains s or sw through the surface. H5 energy with s/w over MI/WI and a sfc low just e of LkSuperior will work in tandem to bring showers, possibly a few thunderstorms to the region overnight Thurs and into early Fri. Come Fri morning, a cold front from the aforementioned sfc low will track into nw OH and lay out sw-ne along the OH/WV border by nightfall. The back side of this front will be dry, if only briefly early Fri night.

For the second half of Fri night, the lingering boundary from earlier cdfnt will begin to lift nwd into CWA as a wmfnt with prevailing rain behind it. There isn't much h8 wind driving moisture into the region, and models are showing the bulk of any rainfall occurring in far sern CWA - if it makes it into the CWA. Some showers are noted across the CWA n of the main footprint of the more continuous precip which looks to be favored over the KY/WV/VA border in a sw-ne orientation. Upper s/w in the zonal sw flow exits Sat morning and a break in precip should be favored for that morning. In the afternoon, scattered activity will be possible in nrn 1/2 of CWA. This is being forced by streamwise h5 vort being pushed e ahead of a cutoff low located near LMich. GFS is an outlier with h5 pattern here, so the Euro and Canadian are currently favored. Overnight Sat, l/w trough from earlier cutoff upper low crosses the Ohio Valley. Drier conditions will be found behind it, but the inclusion of several outlying members used in NBM will likely have some chances of rain through Sun night. Fcst remains dry beyond this. NW h5 flow turns wly on Mon and pattern becomes muddled again on Tuesday, which should be fcst as persistence - dry.

Temps Thu night will be in the low 50s - fully 30 deg above climo. Highs through Sun will be in the upper 50s. Temps then fall behind cdfnt with lows dropping to near freezing at daybreak Mon, and highs only rebounding a handful of degrees with the subsequent nly/nw flow. The remaining Mon-Tue of fcst looks to be about 10 deg above normal with highs in the low 40s and lows near freezing.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A weak low moves across the Lower Great Lakes tonight which likely supports MVFR ceilings, with some IFR, persisting into Wednesday morning. However, a brief period of VFR is possible this evening based on satellite trends to the southwest around the Cincinnati sites. Eventually, high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley which should allow ceilings to lift and scatter to VFR Wednesday afternoon.

Light westerly flow persists for most of the TAF period. Winds begin to back towards the south Wednesday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday through Friday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.