textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost/Freeze headlines maintained.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seasonably cool and dry weather pattern continues through midweek. Frost and Freeze conditions will be possible this morning, Monday night and Tuesday night.

2) Above normal temperatures will return midweek and extend into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Mostly clear skies and calm winds early this morning will help with atmospheric decoupling, promoting rapid cooling near the surface. While air temperatures will only dip into the middle 30s, ground temperatures will be near or below freezing for many, leading to the development of frost. Frost Advisory remains for the entire CWA this morning.

A dry cold front is expected to move through the fa during the daytime hours today. This will result in a temperature gradient across our CWA, with highs only reaching the lower 50s in our far north while still climbing into the 60s near/south of the Ohio River. Additionally, breezy conditions can be expected again, with sustained winds of 10-20 mph and gusts of 25-30 mph.

Behind the cold front, a cooler air mass will be reinforced across the Ohio Valley. This will result in overnight lows dropping below freezing for a large portion of our CWA Monday night, and our eastern portions Tuesday night. Actual frost development will be more limited these nights because of surface winds remaining between 5-10 mph and increasing cloud coverage Tuesday night. Valleys and sheltered locations will be more vulnerable to frost development. However, the sub-freezing temperatures will be an issue for susceptible vegetation. Have maintained a Freeze Watch for Monday night, but this will likely be upgraded to a Warning later today.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

After a seasonably cool start to the week, temperatures quickly rebound to above normal (and even well above normal) levels for the remainder of the week. Surface highs will be back into the 70s across the entire CWA on Thursday, with overnight lows only dropping into the 50s for most the next couple of nights. PWATs remain pretty low during the rest of the work week, indicating a drier air mass in place. Thus, chances for rain currently appear very low at this juncture. Warming trend will continue into the weekend, with many observing highs in the 80s on Sunday, nearly 20 degrees above normals for that day.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions prevail through the taf period. There will be some lower clouds that primarily scoot across KCMH/KLCK later this morning, lowering to ~4000 ft. Cannot rule out a brief sprinkle as well, but coverage/intensity does not warrant a mention in taf.

Breezy conditions will return today during the daytime hours. A dry cold front moves through which will shift winds from the west to the WNW later this morning, veering more to the NW through the day. Sustained winds increase to around 10-15 kts with gusts around 25 kts. Sustained winds will eventually drop back to near or just below 10 kts after sunset.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Freeze Watch from late tonight through Tuesday morning for INZ050- 058-059-066.