textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added an additional message for light snow accumulations and trends to colder weather later this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures above normal through Friday, with record breaking temperatures possible on Wednesday.

2) Chances for showers and a few storms Thursday and Thursday night. Increased winds on Friday as a cold front moves through.

3) Chances for light snow this weekend, with temperatures below normal into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures above normal, with record breaking temps possible on Wednesday.

Low pressure passing to the north tomorrow sends a weak cold front through the area, with showers and widespread clouds limiting temperatures initially. However, as the system moves off to the east, strong southwesterly winds and breaking clouds support warming temperatures through the rest of the afternoon. Temperatures reach the low to mid 60s, but only cool into the 40s and 50s overnight into Thursday.

Warm front lifts across the area on Thursday, with rainfall chances and clouds limiting temperatures a bit, but still expecting well above normal temperatures area wide. Temperatures begin to cool Friday as the cold front finally moves through the region, as high temperatures are generally expected Friday morning ahead of the cooldown.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Chances for showers and a few storms Thursday and Thursday night. Increased winds on Friday as a cold front moves through.

Overall forecast expectations remain the same for the potential of severe weather Thursday evening as a warm front lifts north over the region. The surface low pressure moving northeast into the Great Lakes region supports a cold front positioning well to the west of the local area. This cold front then slides from west to east across the area Friday. Ahead of the cold front, a corridor of moisture rich air and warm temperatures will be enough to support thunderstorms activity. The severe conditions as a result of these thunderstorms remains quite uncertain.

The surface low pressure off to the northwest promotes a favorable low- level wind shear profile with backing flow throughout the lower troposphere. This results in moderately curved hodographs, which are to be expected near the warm front. Despite the concerning hodographs, the lack of steep mid-level lapse rates, likely limits the ability for strong updrafts within the warm sector. Even more uncertainty remains with how long surface based thunderstorms may remain within the favorable atmosphere before the cooling temperatures in the evening decreases overall instability. Storms would require a long enough residence time to allow for organizations and the resulting hazards. CAM guidance is only just beginning to enter the time window, with a variety of solutions already advertised. So, while the general big picture potential is there, the details will be needed to better understand the possible hazards.

Breezy on Friday: As the cold front moves through during the day Friday, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected, especially across eastern Indiana, western and central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chances for light snow this weekend, with temperatures below normal into early next week.

A deeper trough is expected to move through the Ohio Valley this weekend, with jet dynamics favoring the development of low pressure south of the region and then off the east coast. Rain to snow transition is forecast Saturday evening into Sunday, with light snow accumulations possible. This potential is dependent on the overall organization and intensity of the low pressure as it moves south. Snow showers and flurries may linger through the day on Sunday if the stronger solutions verify.

The trough will provide a break from the above normal temperatures for a few days, with below normal values returning to the region into early next week. Low temperatures are coldest Monday and Monday night.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions to start the TAF period, but a weak cold front approaching the region tonight will support a period of LLWS along with the of MVFR CIGs. Some periods of light rain or drizzle will accompany this system. With some of the rain activity, MVFR VIS can not be ruled out along with IFR CIGs from 10Z to 17Z. This was mentioned using PROB30 groups. Clouds break into the afternoon with southwest winds increasing. Gusts of 20 to 25 knots are forecast toward the latter part of the TAF, decreasing into the evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and some thunderstorms are possible Thurs night. Gusts to 25-30kt behind a cold frontal passage early Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.