textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm temperatures remain through the upcoming week as high pressure moves east. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

The onset of the upcoming warm period has begun this afternoon with mid to upper 70s and lower 80s observed across the area. Overnight, a weak system quickly moves into the area. Strong low level winds present an opportunity for strong wind gusts before daybreak, but this will be dependent on if the winds can reach the surface. This weak system moving through the lower Great Lakes interrupts the sunshine on Monday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Then, the mid-level ridge becomes more established into mid-week as a few weak disturbances result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily northwest of the local area. Given some of the uncertainty, NBM PoPs were a bit higher than desired and were therefore lowered after collaboration with surrounding offices north of the area.

Despite the lower potential for widespread rainfall, southwesterly flow continues to support warm and moist southwesterly flow. However, a moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday night into Thursday is when the better chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives, due to a strong trough moving through the Great Lakes.

The mid-level ridge quickly builds back into place, with attention shifting to a stronger cold front set to move through next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A weak mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley tonight into Monday morning. This will be accompanied by a strengthening low level jet which will result in a period of LLWS overnight. In addition, scattered showers will develop overnight and linger into Monday morning. It will also be tough to rule out an embedded thunderstorm Monday morning. Some wind gusts in the 20 to 30 knot range along with the potential for some MVFR conditions will be possible with the showers. Once the showers taper off, MVFR cigs along with gusty winds will remain possible through much of the afternoon before improving toward Monday evening.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.