textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weak cold front slowly moves through tonight, with very limited coverage in showers/storms today and Sunday.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

2) Seasonably cool temperatures expected most of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Most of the shower activity has ended for the day, but an elongated cold front to our north will slowly work its way southward through our CWA tonight. Isolated convection expected to develop out ahead of this cold front later this evening, primarily north of I-70. Majority of CAMs keep the activity north of our CWA. However, keep in mind that an isolated shower may scoot across our northern counties later this evening into the early overnight hours.

Cold front is expected to have progressed just south of the Ohio River by daybreak Sunday. This will result in a dry Mother's Day forecast for most of our CWA. The only caveat to this is that some hi-res models do indicate that the front will stall out just south of the Ohio River during the day. Along/south of the front, some isolated showers and perhaps a stray storm could still develop. Shower/storm activity will likely be just south of our fa, but cannot rule out a stray shower developing in far southern OH and north-central KY during the afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A robust, H5 shortwave trough will swing down from Canada Monday night, increasing cloud coverage throughout the day Tuesday. There is likely enough forcing with this system to generate shower and thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Latest model guidance suggests the best coverage in pcpn will be Tuesday night, with the system gradually moving east of our fa Wednesday. Not overly impressed with this system from a QPF standpoint or severe potential, but this will be our next best chance for widespread pcpn.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Temperatures will creep to near normal for today, but the cold front moves through tonight and will usher in another shot of cooler/drier air. We won't observe a drastic dip in temperatures on Sunday given the limited H5 height falls, but temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s will still be below normal for most.

Highs in the 60s to near 70 are expected for the majority of the work week, which will be just below seasonal normals. A pattern shift late week will result in a warm-up for next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Cloud bases have primarily lifted into VFR category now, with VFR cu persisting through the afternoon. Some terminals may experience a period of mostly clear skies early tonight before a cold front progresses southward, resulting in additional low cloud development. Guidance suggests CIGs likely to remain VFR through the entire taf period. Additionally, most terminals are expected to remain dry overnight even with the passage of the cold front.

Southwesterly winds near 10 kts with gusts up to 20-25 kts expected this afternoon. Gusts diminish tonight and wind speeds drop below 10 kts, but a shift in winds expected overnight into Sunday morning with the frontal passage.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.