textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid/upper level trough will move east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region over the weekend. Models have trended a bit faster with the associated cold front that will push across the area on Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will help us destabilize through the afternoon, but with the somewhat faster timing, the better instabilities will be across central/eastern Ohio through Saturday afternoon.

A weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely move into western portions of our area late tonight into Saturday morning. The storms will then begin to become more organized as they move into the more favorable airmass across our eastern areas heading into Saturday afternoon. Some strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon across mainly our eastern areas but the overall threat will be dependent on the exact timing of the front. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat.

Strong CAA will develop behind the front later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will usher in a much cooler airmass to start the upcoming week, with highs on Sunday and Monday generally in the 50s. Sunday night will be the coldest night as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s,leading to the potential for some frost/freeze conditions.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fog developing across the Great Lakes may make a run at CMH/LCK this morning, but drier surface conditions and mid-high clouds this far south should limit the potential. Maintained TEMPO MVFR visibilities between 10-13Z, but trended toward high-end MVFR given the aforementioned factors. High clouds will prevail through much of the period with some high based cumulus possibly developing by mid afternoon. Expect southerly winds to remain at or below 10 knots through Friday afternoon, increasing to 10-15 knots and veering more southwesterly later Friday evening into Saturday

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Saturday morning and afternoon.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.