textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe threat has ended for most of CWA. Cooler temperatures tonight through Tuesday morning, with a rebound expected for the remainder of next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Convective line and any severe potential is currently along eastern fringe of CWA, with a period of 2-3 hours with showers found behind it until a cold front crosses this evening.

2) Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region through Tuesday morning. Warmer temperatures will return mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Convective line is exiting eastern CWA at the issuance time of this product. No lightning is being detected, and an area of showers and light rain will occur behind the convective line and ahead of a cold front that is currently working into far western CWA. The showers will lighten immediately ahead of the front and cease shortly thereafter, with a noted wind shift to the west-northwest and stronger gusts.

Using the current location of the front and timing it's eastward movement, by 00Z it will be just exiting Franklin County and stretch sw through eastern Highland County and then to Mount Olivet, KY.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Behind the front, good CAA will develop tonight with a much cooler airmass settling into the region for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures both days will generally be in the 50s, some upper 40s north of a Delaware-Bellefontaine line. Sunday night will be the coolest night with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This will lead to the potential for some frost/freeze conditions. In particular, freezing lows will be found north of the I-70 corridor Sun night (excepting metro Cbus), then Monday night in central Ohio east of a Marysville-Washington Court House-Portsmouth line.

Mid level ridging will build into the Ohio Valley through mid week, leading to a warming trend Tuesday onward.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered showers and areas of rain will affect the terminals in the CWA through 00Z, ending with a cold frontal passage. This front and associated precip ahead of it will reach Dayton at 20Z, Cincy at 21Z, and Wilmington at 22Z. Expect a wind shift to wnw and an increase in wind speed 12-15kt G25-30kt. Some MVFR cigs will occur behind it, but the confidence of it rests north of CVG/LUK. If it drops down to 1kft or lower, it will be less than an hour but is possible anywhere for about an hour behind fropa.

Cigs lift overnight and clear out tomorrow. Wind relaxes late in the evening to under 10kt, but keeps up 10-12kt at DAY and ILN. Before daybreak, winds will begin to pick up, but the FM group was put at 15Z where stronger gusts would be more likely in sustained 14-17kt winds. After 18Z, you could probably tack another 3-4kt on to these values.

Mid clouds will occur with a back-door cold front late tomorrow. Winds should shift more nw and relax to under 12kt towards nightfall.

OUTLOOK....MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.