textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast, however highlighted severe threat and flooding threat times in the discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and storm potential overnight into Sunday along with isolated severe threat on Sunday.

2) Cooler temperatures to start the week.

3) Isolated severe potential Tuesday night. Severe weather and flooding potential Wednesday into Thursday with strong system moving through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Showers and some thunderstorm activity will move across the region overnight. Additional thunderstorms will develop and move into the area around the middle of the day. These thunderstorms will primarily impact locations north of the Ohio River. A line of storms will then move through during the afternoon to early evening hours as the cold front moves through. There will be the potential for isolated strong to severe storms from around the middle of the day through the early evening hours. Damaging winds will be the primary threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

With the passage of the cold front, much cooler air will be in place to start the week. Low temperatures Sunday night will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s with highs on Monday in the upper 60s to middle 70s. There will then be a gradual warming trend through Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Dry conditions Monday will give way to some showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon into the overnight hours. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm with this feature.

A stronger storm system will impact the region Wednesday afternoon through the overnight hours Thursday night. This timeframe will have the potential for breezy conditions even outside of thunderstorm activity. There will also be the potential for severe weather with damaging winds and also the potential for heavy rainfall which could lead to some flooding issues. Will mention these threat in the HWO and continue to keep an eye on this system as details resolve.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers and isolated thunderstorms will move across the area overnight. Vsbys may be reduced with some of the precipitation. Cigs will lower overnight and there will be the potential for some MVFR cigs by morning. Then there will be a brief lull or decrease in precipitation chances during the daytime morning hours before additional thunderstorms develop. Winds will also pick up and there will be wind gusts around 20 to 25 knots. A cold front will move through later in the afternoon and have some additional thunderstorms in the TAFs as a line of storms is expected to move through. Winds will shift then with the passage of the front. Cloud cover will decrease and winds will also decrease at the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening. Thunderstorms and gusty winds possible Wednesday and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.