textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually warm. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level blocking pattern will break down as the western part of the omega opens up and sends energy eastward which will suppress the ridge that is extending across the area. Low level ridge will shift southeast resulting in southwest flow developing. This will bring slightly warmer temperatures over the next few days as well as increased low level moisture.

Short wave traversing the northern tier of the US will dig a bit as it moves across the Great Lakes into the Northeast Friday night into Saturday night. Associated surface front will make faster progress on its northern end which will result in the boundary laying out in a more east-west fashion across the lower Great Lakes. This front will sag into the forecast area Saturday night and then stall and weaken as mid level heights quickly rise again on Sunday.

Convection ahead of the front Friday night could make it into northwest counties late Friday night/early Saturday in a weakening phase. Renewed showers and storms are expected to develop with heating on Saturday with the greater coverage across northern counties closer to the boundary. It appears that some weakening activity will continue through Saturday night near the front. Additional diurnal convection will be possible on Sunday although with greater uncertainty due to questions about where and to what degree the boundary remains in tact.

Pattern gets a bit messy with greater uncertainty heading into next week. But latest guidance suggests that as quick as upper ridging develops, it will slide east allowing some short wave energy to pass near the area. With above normal temperatures and persistent low level moisture, the potential for diurnal convection will continue.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR will continue. Cannot rule out a few high based cumulus developing during peak heating, but most likely will just continue to see thin cirrus. Light winds will become south southwest at less than 10 kt during the day and then decrease towards 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible both Saturday and Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for OHZ042-043-051-053- 060>062-070-071-077-078. KY...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for KYZ091>093. IN...Air Quality Alert until midnight EDT tonight for INZ074.