textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence has decreased in the potential for fog and clouds late tonight. Timing of cloud arrival is later.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend through Tuesday.

2) Precipitation next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Southwesterly low level jet will shift across our area today ahead of a fast-moving shortwave. Surface temperatures, though held back some by the snowpack, will rise in a strong warm air advection pattern through the afternoon. Highs will range from the 40s north to mid and upper 50s in the south. The secondary impact of these warm temperatures across the cold ground is that stratus and fog will likely develop starting later this morning. Various model solutions cause some uncertainty in the onset of the low clouds and fog. Either way, it appears cold frontal passage early this evening should cause them to thin and scatter to some degree.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A southern stream disturbance will shift east in progressive, zonal flow from the southern Plains on Saturday into the Mid-Atlantic region Sunday night. Ensemble probabilities of PWATs exceeding an inch remain low, though there is a chance for total rainfall to approach an inch across our southern zones near and south of the Ohio River. Will need to monitor this for river flooding potential. It will depend both on the QPF and also any remaining liquid currently locked in the snowpack.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will become IFR to potentially LIFR starting late morning into the early afternoon as warm air lifts northeast across a cold snow- covered ground. Model timing varies and so does the cloud base and visibility. Main uncertainty for the 17Z-01Z period is whether the moisture manifests as a dense fog or a low stratus. For now, have kept IFR ceilings with MVFR visibility. However, with increasing HREF probabilities of 1/2 mile (or less) visibility, will have to monitor closely and revisit for the 12Z issuance.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.