textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High Wind Watch issued for late tonight through the day on Friday for areas north of I-70. Wind Advisory issued for the rest of our area on Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy conditions will develop late tonight and continue through the day on Friday. The highest gusts will occur especially north of I-70, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible during the day on Friday.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected Sunday night, potentially transitioning to a rain- snow mix in the early morning hours on Monday. A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A strong low pressure system will move through the Great Lakes region tonight through Friday night. Ahead of this, a 70+ knot 850 mb jet will shift east across our area later tonight and through the day on Friday. This, combined with a tightening pressure gradient, will result in windy conditions. Momentum transfer technique off forecast soundings are suggesting the potential for wind gusts to around 55 mph or so across our far northern areas on Friday. Will therefore go ahead and issue a High Wind Watch for areas to the north of I-70. Will then go with a Wind Advisory for areas to the south.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid level energy moving out of the Rockies will lead to another developing low pressure system that will lift northeast across the Great Lakes region Sunday into Monday. Increasing southerly flow ahead of this will lead to breezy conditions and well above normal temperatures for Sunday. Showers will develop heading into Sunday evening. There is some uncertainty to how much if any instability will develop ahead of a cold front through Sunday evening. Will go ahead and include some embedded thunder for now and there could be at least a low end severe threat depending on the degree of instability. Much colder and windy conditions will develop later Sunday night and into the day on Monday as the cold front moves through.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MVFR cigs will persist through the pre-dawn hours before lifting into VFR and then scattering out later this morning. With decent mixing today, northwest winds will gust in the 20-25 knot range later this morning and through this afternoon. A strengthening low level jet will shift east into the region tonight ahead of a strong low pressure system moving into the Great Lakes region. After some decrease in winds this evening, increasing southwest winds will develop later tonight. LLWS will also be possible toward the end of the 30 hour KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...Strong wind gusts above 40 knots will be possible Friday. MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and Monday, along with gusty winds in excess of 35 knots.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ053>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. High Wind Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for OHZ026- 034-035-042>046-051-052. KY...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.