textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday evening and into the overnight ahead of a cold front. A few strong to severe storms will be possible late Monday evening and into the overnight hours.

2) A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley Tuesday night, bringing additional showers and thunderstorms. A drier and cooler airmass will then settle into the region for the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Mid level short wave will lift northeast out of the central Plains and into the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. Ahead of this, a strong low/mid level jet will shift eastward but weaken somewhat as it moves into the mid Ohio Valley through Monday night. Southerly low level flow will lead to some moisture advection up into the region and this will combine with daytime heating to produce good instabilities off to our west through the afternoon hours. This will allow for widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop/move into Illinois and parts of Indiana Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

The activity off to our west will eventually congeal into more of a line of showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front later Monday evening. The 12Z CAMs have trended somewhat slower with the line of storms and by this time, surface based instabilities will be decreasing across our area. So we will likely see a weakening trend in the strength of the storms as they push east-southeast across our area late Monday evening/Monday night. Still though, with the strong forcing, a few severe storms will be possible, with damaging wind the main threat. As of now, it appears the best chance for severe storms would be across our far west/southwest in the 11 PM to 3 AM time frame.

KEY MESSAGE 2) The cold front will stall out across our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Additional instability will develop through the afternoon hours on Tuesday along and to the southeast of the front, with scattered showers and thunderstorm redeveloping through the day. The best chance for this appears to be across our southeast but the exact location and overall coverage will be dictated by where the front ends up by Tuesday afternoon.

Additional mid level energy will move into the lower Ohio Valley Tuesday evening, helping for a surface wave/low to develop along the frontal boundary. More widespread showers and thunderstorms will overspread the area Tuesday night in association with this feature. Depending on the track of the low, a low end severe threat could linger into Tuesday night, especially along and south of the Ohio River.

Behind this system, drier and cooler air will move into the region for the second half of the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with quiet weather likely through the next 24 hours. Easterly winds of around 10 knots are expected overnight, with winds shifting to the southeast and becoming gusty tomorrow afternoon -- generally up to about 25 knots.

There is a very small chance of a shower or thunderstorm near 00Z (Monday evening) at the Cincinnati and Dayton TAF sites, but it is more likely that showers and storms will come into the area after 00Z and into the overnight hours Monday night.

OUTLOOK....Thunderstorms are possible Monday night into Tuesday. Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. MVFR ceilings are possible at times Tuesday into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.