textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday night into Tuesday ahead of a cold front. More rain will occur later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Short wave emerging from the central Rockies Sunday night will deepen as it lifts across the Plains into the Great Lakes by Monday night. Spread in mid level heights has narrowed with the latest guidance suite. So, on the synoptic scale there is pretty good agreement, which takes the surface low through the upper Great Lakes Monday night into Tuesday with the trailing cold front crossing the forecast area on Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms out ahead of the front will push across the region Monday night, mainly after midnight, although there is a bit of timing uncertainty as convective processes could cause precipitation to arrive a bit earlier in the night. While instability is forecast to be waning, there could be sufficient momentum in activity that develops west of the region to have some strong to severe storms get into far western parts of the area before weakening. In addition, there could be some locally heavy rainfall within an axis of precipitable water over 200 percent that translates across the region.

The bulk of the rain will be on Monday night, but there will still be a chance for further development until the front moves east. It is not out of the question that some instability could develop into southeast counties on Tuesday. If that occurs to a sufficient degree, then some stronger storms cannot be ruled out in that area.

The front will stall just east of the region and an area of low pressure will move along the stalled boundary bringing additional showers and possibly some embedded storms later Tuesday night into Wednesday.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

There is a lot of residual low level moisture in the area which is resulting in a mix of low ceilings and fog. This is quite variable to start but expect MVFR to IFR conditions to become more widespread before 12Z. However, confidence in whether ceilings or visibilities are setting the flight category is medium at best. So there is a pretty good chance that some adjustments will be needed as this unfolds.

Ceilings and visibilities will slowly improve after 12Z and then become VFR by 18Z. However, it does appears that MVFR ceilings will spread back across the area during the latter part of the period.

OUTLOOK....Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.