textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to tweak Monday/Tuesday temperatures slightly downward from blended solution. Increased precip/thunderstorm chances for Tuesday afternoon from blended solutions, with only slight change from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures persist through Tuesday. A cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday, bringing a chance for strong to severe storms, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

2) Some potential for strong to severe storms in far NW forecast area this afternoon, with a greater chance of strong to severe storms possible Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late Tuesday night. For today and Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s to around 90. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast.

Temperatures cool behind the passage of the front Wednesday, lingering into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to above normal Friday and into the weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, some unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

While strong to even isolated severe storms are possible this afternoon/early evening in the far NW as the region remains influenced by a departing ridge, bulk shear is a limiting factor, with marginal instability/SB CAPE from 2500 J/Kg peaking over central Indiana and diminishing to <2k J/kg between 20-22z. Enough instability for thunderstorms after 20-22z, but weakening trend to continue, with overall coverage diminishing through the evening.

A greater chance for strong to severe storms on Tuesday afternoon into the evening, with main timing from 19-06z, though marginal confidence in especially onset time with varying solutions from the CAMs. Several of the CAMs ramping up SBCAPE values to 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Effective bulk shear increases to between 20-25kts, but CAM solutions still show pretty unidirectional flow. Strong to severe winds will be the main threat, with DCAPEs ramping up to 900+ J/Kg. The more significant low level shear remains north of the area into northern Ohio/lower Michigan.

With plenty of low level moisture and PWATs ramping up to 1.6-1.8", HREF LPMM 24 hour QPF potential of 2 to 2.5" possible, so some potential for isolated minor flooding, though greater heavy rain threat remains west of the forecast area.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period. Line of storms approaching from Indiana should diminish as they approach the region, but kept a prob30 for KDAY from 23-03z. With increasing low level flow KLUK not as likely to experience BR, but could be some brief MVFR vsbys toward 10-12z.

SW winds 20 to 20 to 25kts will diminish a bit overnight, then ramp up to near 25kts in the warm sector after ~14-16z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday and then again on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.