textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered the thunderstorm probability and removed the severe threat.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms remain north of the I-70 corridor, weakening through the remainder of the evening.

2) Showers and some thunderstorms will move across the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday night with the potential of locally heavy rainfall.

3) Very warm temperatures will develop in the latter part of next week with some places possibly reaching 90.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Atmosphere has been worked over and severe threat has been greatly cut given the loss of daytime heating. The lingering storms currently along a line roughly from Van Wert to east of Kenton, then north of Delaware and Licking Counties will make a slow progression east- southeast and continue to diminish. However, through about midnight, isolated stronger cells like the one that just passed Van Wert will maintain a threat for strong - but sub severe winds of 35-40 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A high amplitude narrow mid level ridge quickly develop on Sunday from the Ohio Valley into the Great Lakes. Weakness in the ridge there will be a shear axis that pushes into the region. The focus for shower and thunderstorm development Sunday will be over the southwest associated with a weak front that sags into the forecast area and stalls out. Moderate instability is expected to develop but shear will be very weak, so the threat for severe weather will be low.

A mid level short wave moving from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes on Monday will push the ridge eastward. This short wave will make slow eastward progress on Tuesday keeping the threat for storms in the forecast.

Model solutions continue to advect favorable moisture into the region with PWAT values around 2 inches. This very moist airmass will move into western counties on Monday afternoon and then across the entire area Tuesday.

Showers and embedded storms are expected to develop and spread in from the southwest as a mid level short wave rides the backside of the ridge axis. Convective activity will diminish but may not completely dissipate on Monday night. There will be another increase in coverage Tuesday which will then taper off overnight Tuesday as the shortwave moves off to the east.

The very moist airmass will offer a favorable environment for high rainfall rates and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

A broad mid level ridge will expand from the southern Plains thru the Ohio Valley and into the Mid Atlantic for the latter part of the week. The humid airmass will remain in place and temperatures will rise and get very warm.

Forecast is probably a couple of degrees too warm from Thursday onwards given bias in the NBM, but nonetheless, there could be some locations that do reach 90 with apparent temperature in the mid to upper 90s.

AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

CMH and LCK terminals will be the only sites that maintain a storm/shower threat through about 06Z. Attm, these cells look to miss much of Franklin County. However, one still strong cell has a track that necessitated a prob30 of thunderstorms from 04Z(CMH) and 05Z(LCK) through 06Z. Few to sct MVFR clouds will be topped by a bkn mid level to upper level stratus. Southwest and over the remaining terminals, this stratus from upstream convection will linger for quite a while overnight and into tomorrow. Upstream cells in central IN creating this Tstorm blowoff are weakening, and this mid-upper cloud deck will begin to break apart overnight.

Winds around 5-6kt will be west for a few more hours, turn northwest after daybreak, and then east-northeast late in the period as the weak boundary current storms are on meanders south overnight and tomorrow. At CVG/LUK, these light winds will maintain a west- southwest direction through tomorrow, shifting south-southeast tomorrow night.

Additional storm development will be possible to the south of where most locations got worked over tonight - CMH/LCK. Have handled this will a prob30 late in the forecast, with MVFR cigs being conditional with the occurrence of precip. CMH/LCK look to be on the northeast edge of storms tomorrow, but the axis of development could be shifted northward into their areas. This is a low chance, so it has been left out for this issuance of TAFs and I expect the dry forecast to solidify with the 12Z issuance.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Sunday through Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night into Tuesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.