textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Numerous showers and storms are expected into this evening as a front slowly drifts south through the local area. A few severe storms cannot be ruled out near the Ohio River this afternoon into early evening.

2) The warm and active weather pattern will continue through most of the week, with several rounds of showers and storms expected into the upcoming weekend. A much cooler and drier pattern will return for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) The front is drifting very slowly south and is evident in surface obs as well as on radar, located just north of ILN attm. Much cooler air and stratus is in place north of the boundary with areas across our far north only in the upper 30s this afternoon. Meanwhile, to the south of the boundary, temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s. This has allowed for some instability to develop along and south of the Ohio River this afternoon with ML capes currently around 1000 J/KG or so across our south.

A weak meso-vort is evident on area radars progressing east across central Indiana early this afternoon. As this continues east, expect showers to overspread our area through mid to late afternoon and continue into this evening. In the better instability across our south, scattered thunderstorms will also be possible. With bulk shear along/south of the boundary in the 30-40 knot range, a few severe storms will be possible into early evening. Damaging wind is expected to be the primary threat, although in the vicinity of the boundary, it will also be tough to rule out a brief tornado.

KEY MESSAGE 2) The frontal boundary will lift back to the north tonight with lingering shower activity lifting north with the front. With our region back into the warm sector on Thursday, expect temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the whole area. Will keep forecast mainly dry but it will be tough to rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon.

The mid/upper level flow will become more amplified Friday into Saturday with a series of embedded mid level short waves will lift northeast through the region. This will result in chances for showers and thunderstorms late Thursday night into Friday morning and then again Saturday into Saturday evening. A strong cold front will move through the area Saturday night, ushering in a much cooler airmass for early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A frontal boundary will continue to push south across southern portions of our area through this afternoon/early evening. MVFR to IFR cigs north of the boundary will affect the northern TAF sites through tonight along with widespread showers. To the south of the boundary, VFR cigs will continue into this evening along with a chance for thunderstorms. As the front moves south more widespread showers and MVFR to IFR cigs will develop at the southern TAF sites heading into tonight. The front will lift back to the north overnight with VFR conditions developing late in the TAF period from south to north. North to northeast winds will prevail north of the boundary while south to southwest winds can be expected to the south of the boundary.

OUTLOOK...Periodic thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.