textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some fog possible this morning.

2) Potential for wintry precipitation Sunday/Monday.

3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected later in the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Some fog possible this morning.

Some patchy mid-level clouds are drifting through the forecast area, but much of the area remains clear. As high pressure moves off to the east, calm winds are expected to gradually pick up out of the south toward morning. However, particularly for sheltered and valley locations, the setup for radiational cooling and fog is rather favorable. Already seeing some evidence of valley fog on night time microphysics satellite imagery in the southeastern ILN CWA (and KPMH, in a known prone location, is at M1/4SM). Will continue to monitor if this becomes more widespread, which may prompt a Special Weather Statement at some point, or if it remains mostly limited to valleys. Otherwise, the southerly flow will continue to increase today, with some 20-25 MPH wind gusts possible -- and warm advection bringing highs well into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Potential for wintry precipitation Sunday/Monday.

Model agreement remains generally poor with regards to two potential systems moving through the region in the upcoming days -- one early Sunday morning, and one early Monday morning.

The vast majority of the model suite is suggesting the Sunday morning system will be very weak, and some are dry entirely. However, the GFS has been a more aggressive outlier, suggesting measurable snowfall will be possible. For now this forecast will continue to lean toward a drier solution, with some precipitation very much possible -- and even some light snowfall accumulations in central Ohio not out of the question -- but much lower than GFS projections.

There is a little more confidence in getting some precipitation out of the next system on Monday morning, as a more well-established shortwave moves east from the middle Mississippi Valley to the mid Atlantic states. Current runs, with decent model consensus, suggest the bulk of the forcing and moisture advection will remain south of the ILN CWA -- but with a swath of precipitation occurring across the area, particularly the southern half of the forecast area. With temperatures close to freezing, the p-type forecast remains much lower in confidence. For now a mix of rain and snow will continue to be forecast, although it should absolutely be noted that an area of mixed precipitation (sleet or freezing rain) could occur in between. Still several days before this system arrives, but accumulating snow does look possible, with the location dependent on where the RA/SN transition zone sets up.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Warmer and wetter conditions expected later in the week.

A pronounced shift in the large-scale weather pattern is expected by Tuesday. On the western periphery of the Bermuda high, deep-layer southerly / southwesterly flow will become established over the southeastern CONUS. A significant feed of warmth and moisture is expected to develop from the Gulf through the deep south, the lower and middle Mississippi Valley, and eventually into the Tennessee and Ohio valley regions as well. It is on the periphery of the zone of higher theta-e that repeated rounds of precipitation are expected to develop. As temperatures rise into the 50s and then into the 60s by the end of the week, there will be episodic chances for rain over the ILN CWA as well. As this synoptic-scale weather pattern appears likely to stick around for a while, speaking in a broad sense, the risk for flooding may gradually increase going into the later part of next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Fog will impact KILN/KCVG (generally MVFR) and KLUK (MVFR to IFR) over the next couple hours. After that, VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the forecast period. Winds this afternoon will be out of the SSW, with some gusts to around 20kts expected. Winds will become lighter tonight, with VFR conditions continuing. However, some LLWS will develop overnight into Saturday morning, and this has been included at all TAF sites.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. MVFR/IFR conditions are possible at times from Sunday night through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.