textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain below normal through Friday morning before transitioning to a warmer air mass Saturday. Near record temperatures are forecast Sunday and Monday before a cold front approaches on Tuesday.

2) Unsettled weather returns Friday night and continues through the weekend with showers and thunderstorms occurring in the region. A warm front shifts north early next week, providing dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A cold front is advancing through the region today, providing blustery northwesterly winds this evening and cooler temperatures tonight. Temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s will feel quite chilly come Thursday morning as light northwesterly winds continue. Cooler temperatures persist into Thursday, with temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below normal for the afternoon.

Surface high pressure shifts southeast of the region Friday, initiating an increase in high temperatures for Friday afternoon, however, some cloud cover will limit the potential for even warmer conditions. Expect more humid conditions to develop Saturday as moisture begins to increase over the Ohio Valley. Similar conditions are expected Sunday, but with less rainfall chances, temperatures likely much warmer.

An impressive ridge builds over the eastern CONUS late Sunday into early next week. This will support the warmest temperatures of the year for the region. Near record high temperatures are possible, but the best chance will be Monday. On Monday night, record high minimum temperatures are once again possible.

Near record warm temperatures may linger into Tuesday depending on the timing of the next cold front. High temperatures range from the mid 70 to the upper 80s within the current 25th to 75th percentiles of the NBM, indicating the timing of the front will be critical to the length of the very warm conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Isolated showers could begin as early as Friday into Friday night, as warm southwesterly flow increases moisture into the Ohio Valley.

Within the breaks of clouds on Saturday, afternoon warmth should be enough to provide periods of thunderstorms. With shear limited to around 20 knots, severe weather chances appear to be fairly marginal at this time, but some locally strong wind gusts will be possible. Some scattered thunder and rainfall chances likely continue through Saturday night as a front stalls over the area. This front will lift northward Sunday, pushing any additional shower and thunderstorm chances to northern portions of the area, generally along and north of the I-70 corridor. With the deep ridge building into over the eastern CONUS Sunday night into Monday, dry conditions returns.

Timing on the next front is still a bit uncertain with faster solutions bringing the front into the area early on Tuesday. If it comes a bit later, afternoon heating could supply modest convective energy for thunderstorms Tuesday evening.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Dry conditions are expected. VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period with VFR cu. Cannot rule out a brief MVFR cig overnight, primarily around KCMH and KLCK however confidence was not high enough to include at this time. Wind gusts will subside this evening, however expect winds to stay up some through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.