textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered dewpoints/RHs for this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy and warmer conditions today.

2) Multiple systems will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region at times through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface high pressure will move off to the east today, leading to a tightening pressure gradient across our area. As a result, breezy conditions will develop today and with decent mixing, some wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range can be expected this afternoon. With the good mixing, have also made some downward adjustments to dewpoints this afternoon, leading to afternoon RHs in the 25 to 35 percent range. In the developing WAA, highs today will be in the mid 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A weak mid level short wave will move through the Ohio Valley tonight into Wednesday as a weak frontal boundary sags south into our area. This will lead to scattered showers, and with some weak elevated instabilities developing, a few embedded thunderstorms will also be possible.

Mid level ridging will shift east across the Ohio Valley on Thursday before a somewhat stronger mid level short wave lifts northeast across our region Friday into Saturday. This will lead to additional chances for showers and thunderstorms through the end of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mostly clear skies will continue through the morning as surface high pressure moves off to our east. A tightening pressure gradient will lead to increasing southwest winds through the day with wind gusts to around 30 knots or so possible this afternoon. A frontal boundary will sag down into the region from the north tonight. This will lead to scattered showers and perhaps an embedded thunderstorm late in the TAF period. Some marginal LLWS will also be possible tonight.

OUTLOOK....MVFR conditions will be possible Friday into Saturday along with a chance for thunderstorms.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ045-054-055-063- 064-072-073-079>082-088. Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ046-056-065-074. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ099-100. IN...None.