textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

In collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC, high temperatures for today through Tuesday continue to be adjusted down from the NBM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather with rounds of showers and thunderstorms today through tonight. Some of these storms may produce large hail and wind damage across southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky late this afternoon and this evening, while localized heavy rain could develop in southeast Indiana this evening.

2) A warm front shifts north on Sunday providing drier and warmer conditions through Monday. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Morning convection has mostly moved east of central OH early this afternoon, leaving behind abundant cloud cover and an airmass attempting to recover for later this afternoon. Showers have persisted moreso across northern KY on the northern periphery of a disturbance to our south.

The aforementioned wave of energy and quasi-mesoscale convective vortex coming out of Arkansas into western TN and southwest KY will be the key feature to monitor later today through tonight. Showers and storms to our west and southwest will continue to be generated by this, with southeast IN likely seeing storms develop later this afternoon or early evening. A period of clearing is currently developing along the Ohio River, thus likely allowing temperatures to bump to near 80 degrees as low-level southwesterly winds allow for destabilization in the warm sector. Precipitable water values above 1.5 inches and increasing effective shear to 30+ knots may very well allow for a period of stronger storms through this evening, capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Additional storms generated later today, along with the approach of ongoing storms along a defined band spanning central Indiana, may pose a heavy rain and localized flooding threat for southeast IN this evening. Will have to monitor development through this evening/tonight for northern KY and far southwest OH as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Following any lingering Sunday morning showers and storms, upper ridging building in will bring rising heights resulting in drier and warmer weather for the 2nd half of the weekend. Isolated late afternoon and evening showers/storms are possible across west central OH and eastern IN on Monday as heat/moisture build ahead of a cool front arriving by midweek.

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of this front. Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s into the lower 90s. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated by the presence of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Complex of showers/storms moving across northern KY this evening. Thunderstorms more favored south of the Ohio River based on latest trends. KCVG/KLUK still likely to have some light to moderate SHRA the first couple hours of the taf period. Given the lower confidence in storm potential there, only have TSRA mention in a TEMPO group.

Models continue to show potential for shower/storm redevelopment tonight near the Ohio River, with a slow, northerly progression. Thus, have included potential for another round of showers/storms at KCVG/KLUK, with additional chances for some of our northern terminals. Confidence gets much lower at KCMH/KLCK, so kept a dry forecast there for now.

As for CIGs... no longer expecting widespread MVFR/IFR for tonight. Cannot rule out some MVFR CIG lowerings with the complex of showers/storms tonight, but that would only be for a brief period if that occurs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.