textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gave a little more detail on below normal temps today, rising to above on Wed/Thu. Storms overnight Thurs look to be behind the front, similar to what was seen last night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) After a cold day today and tonight, temperatures will warm through Thursday.

2) After a chance of showers early Thursday, storms are expected to develop Thurs evening and continue overnight behind the frontal passage, exiting in the morning along and s of the Ohio.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures will drop significantly today. Overnight lows will see readings below freezing across the CWA. Near normal temps will be found Tues/Tues night, and then readings will jump back above normal Wed, moreso on Thurs ahead of the next cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A surge of unseasonably warm/moist air will arrive early Thursday morning which could see scattered shower activity in the morning. Sfc low pressure will become more defined along a sw-ne front in the evening. The front will cross the region to the south, and thunderstorm activity will be found behind it for several hours. Storms will begin in the evening north of I-70 and reach the Ohio River a little after midnight. By daybreak, any activity is expected to be over for most of the CWA, but could linger into the morning along and s of the Ohio River.

It is still too early to indicate the severe potential with this front and the following storms. Given the warm and moist airmass ahead of it and the significant temp drop behind it, strong storms should occur, but storm type and overall potential is yet to be seen.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure building into lower LMich today will keep a good clip of nnw wind over the region with gusts to 25kt and continued cold air advection through the day. Low stratus will hang through daybreak and gradually lift this morning, but should only scatter out at CVG/LUK while remaining bkn-ovc for remaining terminals. The stratocu here should lift aoa 4kft later this morning and clear towards nightfall.

Closer to sunset, the high will be working into nrn OH and wind will taper down to under 10kt with clear skies. High clouds will then stream in from the west as winds back to the east and settle around 5kt by about midnight, dropping even lower at CMH/LCK closer to the high pressure center at the tail end of the forecast period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and thunderstorms are expected Thursday evening and overnight with another cold frontal passage.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.