textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few showers and thunderstorms are possible early this morning across the Tri-State area, then locally strong thunderstorms are possible across the area later this afternoon into this evening.

2) The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Wednesday, with scattered showers and cooler conditions expected during the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Have observed scattered nocturnal convection across portions of southern Illinois and southern Indiana the last few hours. This is in response to increasing moisture and elevated instability within an area influenced by a low level jet. This activity, and possibly new activity within this zone, may skirt the southwest portion of our CWA early this morning. There is some uncertainty how far north convection will form, but have chance PoPs including most of southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky before the chance for convection sharply cuts off to the north early this morning.

After a mid morning to early afternoon lull, new convection is expected to form by late afternoon. While there is uncertainty as to how much coverage there will be due to weak forcing, the most likely location for convection looks to be across eastern Indiana into west/southwest Ohio. Assuming better moisture return in the low levels and sufficient instability, isolated strong to marginally severe storms will be possible, with the primary threat strong to locally damaging wind gusts. Convection may move east into central Ohio during the evening before dissipating.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A shortwave trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front moves south into the CWA on Tuesday, gradually moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will provide a chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time. Initially, timing could be a little tricky, as some guidance suggests even some morning convection on Tuesday, but the majority of the showers and thunderstorms will be likely to occur from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. During this time, it is likely that much of the area receives 1 inch of rainfall, with a low probability that some locations could reach 2 inches of rainfall. Will have to monitor for any potential hydro issues on small streams/creeks, but at this time the risk for flooding appears to be low.

Even with the cold front residing to the south by late Wednesday, influence from the mid level trough will keep unsettled conditions (showers) in the forecast through the rest of the week, along with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect primarily mid clouds through sunrise, although can't rule out localized MVFR ceiling development late tonight. Due to uncertainty only have scattered indicated in the TAFs at this time. Will also have to watch showers and storms late tonight/early this morning across southern Indiana/northern Kentucky, although many of the latest CAMs suggest convection stays south of the terminals. Beyond this morning, renewed scattered convection is expected to develop this afternoon. KDAY/KILN may have the best chances, at least initially, to be impacted by a storm - confidence is lower further east toward Columbus in the evening.

Southerly winds becoming gusty this afternoon, and may remains gusty at or above 20 knots this evening. It's possible that non-convective low level wind shear may also develop late tonight and may need included in subsequent TAF cycles.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.