textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A weak mid level disturbances embedded in the southwest flow to pivot east of the area with rain ending this morning. This brief respite in precipitation today will be followed by unsettled weather heading into the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will continue to warm to above normal readings.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

A weakening mid level disturbance lifting thru the Ohio Valley was leading to light rain across the area. The best coverage of rain is across the western TAF sites. As the shortwave lifts northeast out of the area - pcpn will come to an end from southwest to northeast early this morning. Cloudy skies will persist thru the morning with some breaks likely especially across the southeast later in the day.

In low level WAA pattern, temperatures will moderate with highs in the upper 40s north to the middle 50s south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Mid level shortwave to eject northeast from the Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley overnight and thru the Ohio Valley Friday. Model solutions continue to keep the area dry overnight with pcpn overspread the area Friday. H8 low southerly low level jet of 45-50kt will offer favorable moisture advection and lift with pcpn overspread the southwest during the morning and across the remainder of the area Friday aftn. Have pops ramping up to categorical during the day.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Highs on Friday in the lower and middle 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A warm front will lift north of the Ohio Valley Friday night as a series of mid level shortwaves progresses across the area. Rain chances exist and warm southerly flow persists through the night with lows only dropping into the upper 40s to near 50. Rain chances continue on Saturday and well into the day Sunday ahead of an approaching low, cold front, and upper level trough. Currently, it appears there may be a lull in precipitation on Saturday before ramping up again on Sunday when the low moves overhead. Forecast highs spike to near 60 on Saturday and reach into the upper 50s on Sunday thanks to southerly flow continuing.

Temperatures drop behind the front on Monday as dry air moves in briefly through Monday night. Rain chances ramp up again on Tuesday when another low and cold front moves through the Ohio Valley. Temperatures drop behind the front for the middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A weakening mid level disturbance lifting thru the Ohio Valley will track off to the northeast with rain ending early this morning. A brief period of MVFR cigs and occasional MVFR vsbys will be possible this morning. Conditions will improve this morning with VFR conditions thru the remainder of the TAF forecast period.

Light east winds will become southeast and continue at less than 10 kts today.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions likely Friday into Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.