textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Removed mentions of wintry precipitation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warmer and wetter conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the week, leading to increased potential for areal and river flooding late weekend into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Zonal flow across the CONUS today will amplify through the week as mid/upper level troughing forms over the western CONUS and ridging across the southeast. This will result in the development of broad, warm and moist southwest flow across the central into the northeast CONUS through the remainder of the week. Thus, expect a warming trend with occasional rounds of showers through the end of the forecast period.

Some stronger mid level energy will lift northeast in the flow on Wednesday as a warm frontal boundary shifts north into the Ohio Valley. Models are trying to pull some slightly better instabilities northeastward toward our area through the day on Wednesday. With fairly strong wind fields, the potential will exist for some lower end severe threat Wednesday into Wednesday evening, especially across southwest portions of our area.

PWs will trend up through Tuesday and then remain 2-3 times above normal for this time of year through the weekend. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. This will eventually lead to an increased hydro threat later this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Light rain continues this evening across the southern portions of the area, pushing northward over the next few hours. With this band of rain, IFR CIGs and IFR/MVFR VIS are occurring. Expect these conditions to reach northern terminals (DAY/CMH/LCK) before 06Z.

Off and on showers occur throughout the overnight, ahead of the next system that will bring more widespread chances for rain. Between 13Z-17Z, some brief improvements are expected with VIS and CIGs, but this is short-lived as the next wave of steady rain arrives between 15-17Z.

The evolution of the rain Tuesday afternoon and evening is still fluctuating, but confidence is increasing on the steadiest chances for rain across CVG/LUK. This is especially true through the end of the TAF period. A dry period is possible for DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK starting between 22-02Z Wednesday. For now, kept the rest of the TAF period pessimistic until confidence is higher.

Winds are easterly this evening around 10 knots, shifting southeasterly overnight at less than 10 knots. By tomorrow afternoon, surface winds are southwesterly around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible through Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.