textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included mention of possible strong storms on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

Generally quiet conditions are expected today, with surface high pressure gradually weakening and shifting east over the next 24 hours. A weak cold front will move southeast from the Great Lakes into the area today, perhaps just enough to spark a few showers and a very slight chance of a thunderstorm, but most locations will remain dry.

Attention will then turn to an upstream shortwave on Sunday, likely accompanied by a weak surface low, which will move east into the northern Ohio Valley late Sunday into Sunday night. Theta-e advection ahead of this wave will bring an increase in moisture, with precipitable water values of well over an inch and a half across most of the forecast area after 00Z (Sunday night into early Monday morning). Widespread precipitation is expected to develop ahead of the shortwave and the surface low, perhaps with several waves moving through the area. Overall, the most favorable timing for precipitation still appears on track from previous forecasts -- from late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. Models continue to suggest fairly high confidence in a swath of 1-2 inches of rain across much of the area, and with convection expected, there is the potential for some areas to get more than that. WPC continues to highlight the area with a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for Sunday / Sunday night.

Models are still not being overly aggressive with instability with this system, and soundings look generally moist adiabatic, which will preclude a greater severe threat. However, overall forcing and wind shear (particularly the increase in 850mb flow) provide some evidence that a conditional severe risk is there. If more instability becomes present, a greater severe risk could evolve, but for now it seems it may be limited to some wind potential for any storms that become surface based.

Deeper moisture will gradually shift southward, with a cold front moving in behind the wave. It is not entirely clear how quickly this cold front will make it through the CWA, but precipitation chances will be shifting southward by the daytime hours Monday, mainly impacting the southern portions of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.

Behind the system, dry weather will return to the area late Monday through the middle of the week. Temperatures are expected to remain a little below normal through the week. Overall, precipitation chances look fairly low, though a weak shortwave could bring some showers Wednesday into Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Clouds through the next 24 hours will mainly be mid-level clouds. Winds will remain under 10 knots overnight, and then west to west-northwest winds are expected during the day Saturday, with some gusts to 20-25 knots possible.

There will be a slight chance of showers for some of the TAF sites on Saturday, but the probability is too low to include in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday as well.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.