textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur into the early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

2) An extended period of dry weather will occur from Thursday into at least the early next week with temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Diffuse warm front will lift north of I-70 by daybreak, which will be its greatest northwards progress before pushing back south from late morning through the afternoon.

Showers developing across the northern part of the forecast area will increase in coverage on the nose of a modest southwesterly low level jet. As the low level jet curves off to the east, sheared out mid level energy will pass across the region in confluent flow later this morning. This will create a west to east zone for continue development of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Precipitable water is increasing to 1.6-1.8 inches and the warm cloud depth is around 3.5 km. This all lead to the potential for locally heavy rain and possibly repeated rounds of showers. 00Z HREF and REFS are in pretty good agreement placing the maximum rainfall axis in proximity to the I-70 corridor.

A short wave approaching from the northwest will cause everything to shift southeast through the afternoon with the possibility that some activity could linger into the early evening in far southeast counties. Convective allowing guidance does show streaks of heavier precipitation during this time frame, generally in a west northwest- east southeast orientation but there is more variability in the location of these corridors. In addition, CAPE will increase to 1000-1500 J/Kg with 0-6 km shear of 20-25 kt. So a few stronger storms could develop with wind being the primary hazard beyond the heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2) An omega block will develop across North America for the latter part of the week and into next week. Surface high pressure will prevail. This will allow the region to dry out. Temperatures will generally be within +/- 3 degrees of normal with some minor fluctuations from day to day.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A west-east oriented front will lift north of the terminals by around 12Z before then dropping back south through the day. Showers will be developing over the next several hours and eventually become more prominent near the front. Showers and eventually some thunderstorms will remain prevalent near the front. Timing has been shifting a bit but attempted to highlight the most likely times in the TAFs.

All signs points to IFR/LIFR ceilings developing over the next few hours. There could be some visibility restrictions as well, although less confident in that occurring. Ceilings will gradually lift during the day, becoming MVFR, and then scattering between 20Z and 00Z.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.