textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for showers and thunderstorms returns late tonight and continues through the weekend.

2) Increasing heat and humidity next week with continued chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Broad mid and upper level ridge to shift east and flatten as shortwave energy passes thru the Great Lakes overnight thru Saturday. Initial shortwave passes to our north with convection that develops in the upper midwest tonight tracking southeast and weakening as it approaches the region toward daybreak Saturday. This convection will have decreasing chances for thunder as it drops into our northern counties Saturday morning.

After the morning clouds clear the airmass will recover with moderate instability expected Saturday afternoon. Model solutions continue to show a wide array of possible outcomes - therefore uncertainty is high. Following a consensus solution with the moderate instability developing during the afternoon - the most favored area for the development of deep convection is along and north of I-70. With the tail of weakening jet pivoting thru central Ohio, this will be the most favored region for organized convection during the late afternoon and into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Cannot rule out isolated large hail or even a tornado.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A skinny narrow mid level ridge builds into the region Sunday into early next week. A system lifts northeast on the back side of this retreating ridge bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A broad mid level ridge then looks to build into the region for late week into next weekend. This will allow temperatures and dew points to increase with the potential for impactful weather due to heat. Temperatures look to increase with highs approaching 90 on Thursday and then likely rising to 90 or above for Friday. Maximum heat indices look to approach 100 Thursday and possibly rise above 100 Friday in many locations.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail overnight into Saturday morning. Scattered to broken high based cumulus clouds between 5000 and 6000 feet are being observed with southwest winds gusting up to 25 kts. The cumulus clouds and winds will diminish toward 00Z. Mid and high level debris clouds will increase overnight across the TAF sites. Convection that develops in the upper midwest tonight to track southeast and weakening as it approaches the region toward daybreak Saturday. This convection will have decreasing chances for thunder as it drops into our Saturday morning. Have a prob30 mention for a lingering shower Saturday morning across the northern TAF sites. Additional development of thunderstorms is expected Saturday afternoon into the evening with best chance across the north after 18Z. Southwest winds increase Saturday with gusts of 20 to 25 kts. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Saturday through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.