textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Breezy conditions are expected into Monday afternoon and have bumped up wind gusts accordingly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Breezy conditions are expected through the early afternoon on Monday with scattered showers and thunderstorms.

2) Well above normal temperatures are expected for much of the upcoming week. Episodic shower and thunderstorm chances return for the work week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A quick moving shortwave impulse continues to pass through the Ohio Valley region on Monday, accompanied by a 40 to 50 knot low level jet. Some of this energy will mix down to the surface Monday morning into the early afternoon hours. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 MPH with gusts up to 40 MPH are possible. Additionally, the warm and moist southwesterly flow will help promote late morning/early afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected, though some showers/storms may help translate some stronger SPS-worthy winds down to the surface via momentum transfer. Precipitation moves out of the region Monday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Heading into the rest of the week, a deep troughing pattern will set up over the Four Corners region while a Bermuda High sets up off of the Atlantic. This results in the ILN CWA being on the northern periphery of the high, under continued deep southwesterly flow allowing temperatures to warm. Ensemble guidance has been trending slightly warmer from run to run. The high temperatures in the grids represent the 50th percentile. However, if the forecast continues to trend warmer and hedges closer to the 90th percentile, then some high temperature records may be at risk of being broken, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. Looking at Tuesday, records are CVG 84F (1887), CMH 86F (1883), and DAY 82F (1931,1941). Current forecasted highs for Tuesday are CVG 82F, CMH 82F, DAY 83F.

Low end PoPs remain in our forecast on Tuesday as another shortwave impulse travels through the larger flow. A stalled out front to our northwest (Wisconsin into Michigan) will provide the focus for more robust shower and thunderstorm development Tuesday afternoon/evening and some of that shower/storm blowoff may creep into the far northwest of our CWA (east central IN/west central OH) Tuesday night.

The next impulse begins to encroach into our region by Wednesday, bringing renewed chances for showers and storms Wednesday night through Thursday as a weak cold front sweeps through the area. There are still some details to be worked on with regard to timing and placement for this system. However, early signals indicate that training storm motions combined with PWATs around 200% of normal may result in locally heavy rainfall/quick runoff for portions of east central IN/ west central OH as this system moves through.

As we near the end of the week, things look to remain active as the much larger troughing pattern begins to dig and progress toward the Mid-Atlantic region, likely bringing additional chances for showers and storms through the weekend.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Strong southwesterly flow remains in place through much of the day, with gusts to 30 knots possible through the afternoon hours. Gusts decrease around sunset today. Sustained winds around 12 knots continue overnight into Tuesday before gusts increase yet again Tuesday daytime hours.

Scattered light rain showers continue to move through this morning and into early afternoon hours. For now, chose to not include thunder in the TAFs but it may need to be introduced during the late morning hours Monday with any lingering showers. All precip tapers off by Monday evening.

Recent trends indicate an earlier arrival of MVFR clouds later this morning, so have trended TAFs accordingly. MVFR clouds move out by mid afternoon hours and we will eventually scatter out by the evening. Another MVFR deck will begin to encroach into west central Ohio during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.