textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions continue into today before a cold front moves through the area, bringing chances for rain and slightly cooler conditions into Saturday. Warm temperatures return Sunday through the middle of next week with rainfall chances resuming Monday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front will drop down through this afternoon and into the early evening. Rainfall chances increase with the arrival of the front. Gusty southwest winds up to 25 mph will be observed with surface dew point pooling in the mid and upper 50s. This will lead to a ribbon of marginal instability with the front. A band of showers and perhaps a few elevated thunderstorms due to the marginal instability will accompany the front. Overall, rainfall amounts across the area will be light with rainfall of one to three tenths of an inch expected. Ahead of the front in the dry airmass minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent combined with the gusty winds will offer another period of elevated fire conditions before the rain arrives later in the day.

High pressure moves through the Great Lakes on Saturday, providing dry conditions with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.

Mid level ridging builds into the region on Sunday as the flow amplifies with a trough deepening over the western CONUS. Several weak disturbances track around the northern periphery of the ridge providing chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. The unsettled weather pattern looks to continue thru the end of the week with uncertainty in exact timing. Until these details can be ironed out, above normal temperatures will remain the main story with very warm high temperatures generally in the 80s.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Scattered high clouds will spill into the area this morning. VFR conditions at all but KLUK where valley fog was resulting in IFR conditions. The fog will improve quickly with winds increasing. A period of LLWS will also be possible early this morning. Winds will increase on today and become gusty with winds gusts up to 25 kts expected. Cloud cover will increase and rain showers will move into the TAF sites this afternoon. Marginal instability will exist which will likely lead to embedded thunderstorms but coverage is too low to mention in an individual TAF site at this time. Cigs will lower with a period of MVFR cigs in the post frontal environment overnight.

Southwest winds gust up to 25 kts this afternoon and then shift to the northwest with the frontal passage and then become north to northeast at 10 kts or less tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Monday and Tuesday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.