textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain Saturday night into Sunday.

2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

3) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain Saturday night into Sunday.

Short wave tracking out of the mid Mississippi Valley tonight will cross the region on Sunday morning. Rain will spread into the area mainly after midnight and then push east of the area on Sunday afternoon. There is increasing agreement within the guidance suite that precipitation will occur across most of the area, although it may not make it all of the way into west central Ohio. There continue to be fluctuations in QPF. Operational 0Z GFS has come in heavier and enough GFS members are higher that the strong northern gradient in rainfall probabilities greater than 1/2 inch (as a proxy for more substantial rainfall) has shifted a bit further north into southeastern Indiana and southern Ohio. Previous GEFS as well as other ensemble systems, including AI ensembles, have depicted that gradient either along the Ohio River or even further south in Kentucky. The 0Z HEFS is also in the latter camp, but the 0Z REFS does have higher probabilities into the Tri-State which then shift south into eastern Kentucky. So still some uncertainty in rainfall amounts.

Rivers in Kentucky continue to fall after cresting from snow melt earlier in the week, so even if higher QPF verifies (still under 1 inch), it should not have a substantial impact, although some smaller streams may become elevated due to efficient runoff.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

Broad mid level ridging will translate east, building into the region starting Monday. Surface high pressure over the area on Monday will move off to the east allowing for an extended period of south to southwest low level flow. This will lead to a substantial warm up. At this stage, Wednesday still appears to be the warmest day of the week with latest NBM numbers pushing towards record warmth. Will see how the details evolve as that gets closer in time, but there is still some upside potential to the temperature forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

Latest guidance seems to be settling on two systems potentially affecting the region, one on Wednesday and the other on Friday. Initial short wave will lift northeast into the western Great Lakes Wednesday morning and then continue into southern Canada. Associated surface low will stay to the north of the area, taking a warm front with it. Most precipitation will be along and north of these features where better forcing occurs, but some showers could develop south into the area. As this system passes, the pressure gradient does increase which will lead to gusty winds. Probabilities of gusts greater than 30 mph are fairly high, generally 50 to 80 percent.

Subsequent short wave currently looks like it will have less amplitude but track a bit farther south. If it keeps that track, then the chance of rain will be higher on Friday than on Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR will continue through at least 00Z. Some mid clouds about the area to start will move off. Extensive shield of high clouds will then spread across the region, eventually lowering into a mid deck. Rain will spread in from the west southwest late in the period, only affecting the Cincinnati terminals through 06Z. Ceilings will lower, although likely remain VFR while visibilities will drop into MVFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected late Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR ceilings may continue into Sunday night. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.