textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included mention of fog redevelopment tonight, as well as strong storm potential for late Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fog gradually improving this afternoon before redevelopment expected overnight.

2) Temperatures rising much above normal.

3) Chances for showers/storms and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Fog gradually improving this afternoon before redevelopment expected overnight.

Dense fog advisory has been lifted based on improving visibilities and OHGO cameras supporting reduced impacts to roads/travel. However, the fog has lifted into a low stratus deck across much of the fa, which is keeping some of the shallow moisture trapped. Some patchy dense fog still cannot be ruled out, particularly through the early afternoon.

Stratus deck expected to gradually erode, but this will be a slow process. With clouds eventually clearing out and the synoptic pattern remaining fairly unchanged, some fog redevelopment is expected once again tonight. Probabilistic guidance still supports a likely chance for visibilities being reduced to one mile or less, particularly north of the Ohio River. Some locations may observe dense fog (1/4 mile or lower visibilities) again tonight into early Tuesday, which may warrant another Dense Fog Advisory issuance. Fog is not expected to linger quite as long into Tuesday morning with increased return flow that will help break the decoupled layer and enhance mixing.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures rising much above normal.

Models remain consistent in development of an H5 ridge that expands across the Ohio Valley. This will result in a gradual warming trend through the work week, with Wednesday and Thursday remaining the warmest days of the period. Some uncertainty on how warm it will get during the daytime with increasing chances for pcpn and residual cloud cover, but nonetheless, temperatures will trend well above seasonal normals.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chance for showers/storms and increased winds mid to late week.

The H5 ridge flattens during the middle of the week, which will help result in a more active pattern the next few days. ILN will be firmly planted in the warm sector of a surface low that will be situated across the Northern Plans on Wednesday. With continued southwesterly flow ushering in a warm and relatively humid air mass, rain showers are expected to develop during the day. Cannot rule out a few rumbles of thunder with marginal instability. Additionally, breezy conditions develop during the daytime, with sustained winds around 15-20 MPH and gusts up to 35 MPH.

SPC has introduced a Day 4 Outlook for potential severe weather that encompasses portions of the Tristate into southwest OH. This is in response to the advancing surface low that will move through the Midwest region Thursday night into Friday. The timing for severe potential here appears to be late day Thursday into Thursday night based on the progression of the low. Some instability will be available, but this still appears to be marginal at best (with overnight timing being less ideal). However, favorable kinematics will be in place given the strong wind shear profiles. While not a slam dunk severe scenario, will need to monitor trends with this system for potential impacts.

Cold front moves through Friday, ushering in a colder air mass once again and will reduce pcpn chances later in the day. Breezy conditions develop once again on Friday, with gusts of 25-30 MPH possible. It should be noted that we may observe some snow developing across our north this weekend, but will have to monitor trends before getting into too many details.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Vsbys generally improving as surface winds increase and help reduce the fog. However, fog has lifted into low stratus, keeping CIGs in IFR/LIFR for longer than anticipated. Continued to keep these lower CIGs around for a period this afternoon and will amend as needed. It is expected that these low stratus clouds will eventually scatter out, but still some uncertainty with how slow this will occur.

Fog is expected to redevelop tonight given the proximity of the surface high. IFR vsbys starting to become more favorable across all terminals, but slightly lower confidence at KCVG/KLUK. Elsewhere, wouldn't be surprised if vsbys trend back to LIFR/VLIFR tonight. Fog is not expected to linger quite as long after daybreak Tuesday as southwesterly winds increase with the departing surface high. All sites likely to return to VFR by mid to late morning Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and 25kt gusts are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.