textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a flood watch across the southeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms continue today.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected this week. Next chance for rain will arrive mid-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A progressive mid level shortwave in the zonal flow will track thru the region today. Surface low is forecast to move east ahead of the wave, with an associated warm front pushing into ILN/s southern counties this morning. The airmass has moistened up with an axis of PWATs of 1.6 to 1.8 inches over the southwest. Widespread rain across the south will become more scattered in coverage by sunrise. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (especially over the southeast where low end moderate instability will develop) with persist until the surface low and associated cold front push thru the area later this afternoon.

Given the continued favorable wind shear, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm across the far southeast until the front clears the area late this afternoon. Strong to damaging winds will be the primary threat across portions of Northeast Kentucky and South Central Ohio. The most favored timing for strong to severe storms is 1 PM to 7 PM.

Given the high PWAT airmass, the expected development of convection, and collaboration - have issued a flood watch across ILN/s southeast counties thru 7 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are generally in the mid 80s. For the majority of this upcoming week, daytime highs are expected to remain below normal. A slight warming trend develops from the middle through the end of the work week, brining highs back into the 80s.

There is a chance for showers/storms Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave tracks through the Midwest region.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

As of 1030Z, conditions are a mix of VFR and MVFR, with scattered showers (and isolated thunderstorms) in the area. Over the next few hours, ceilings will lower to MVFR/IFR, depending on the location, as westerly winds increase with some gusts to around 20 knots.

Precipitation chances will be spotty, but most locations will get some rain (perhaps with MVFR visibilities) at some point through the morning. By afternoon, the main threat for showers and storms will be at the Columbus TAF sites, where a PROB30 for -TSRA is included.

By late afternoon through evening, precipitation chances will end, and ceilings will lift to VFR some time after 00Z.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday and Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through this evening for OHZ079-081-082-088. KY...Flood Watch through this evening for KYZ094>100. IN...None.