textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included a mention of patchy fog this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning, along with some patchy fog.

2) Hot and humid conditions this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Stalled frontal boundary remains draped across our CWA early this morning. This boundary is interacting with a very saturated air mass, where PWATs remain near 1.8". Combined with the weak flow, this is resulting slow moving, regenerating showers in portions of central and western OH. While flooding will still be limited in coverage, isolated locations could have some hydro issues given the efficient rainfall in these slow moving cells. There will be a gradual eastward progression of these showers, keeping any hydro concerns primarily around central OH before these showers are expected to dissolve.

Patchy fog development is already occurring and will persist into the morning hours. Given the thick layer of clouds, conditions aren't exactly favorable for dense fog to develop, but trapped shallow moisture could result in some visibility reductions near one mile in spots. Will continue to monitor trends and OHGO cameras to determine if any product is needed.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Confidence remains high in an amplified H5 ridge building across the Midwest region this week, resulting in an impactful heat wave. Heat Advisory criteria could be observed as early as Monday, with the latest NBM data providing heat indices near or above 100 degrees for a large portion of our CWA. It does appear likely that heat index values will continue to meet or exceed 100 degrees through Thursday. Additionally, overnight lows remaining in the low to mid 70s will provide no relief from the oppressive heat/humidity. Given the high confidence in this heat wave, heat headline products will likely be needed soon.

Will continue to note that as we head into Friday, global models and ensembles continue to pick up on a signal of the H5 ridge dampening, which would result in a more active pattern heading into the weekend. This would alter high temp forecasts and provide some relief from the heat, but will introduce potential for storms.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Stalled frontal boundary remains draped across south-central OH. Most of the early morning showers have ended, but will continue to observe reduced CIGs/vsbys. Vsbys should jump back to VFR early into the taf period. CIGs will likely remain IFR/MVFR through the morning hours before returning to VFR by the afternoon, with VFR CIGs likely the remainder of the taf period.

Cannot rule out isolated shower development this afternoon. Best chance for this development will be at KCMH/KLCK, so included a PROB30 mention.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.