textproduct: Wilmington
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
Slight increase in rain potential on Friday.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Frost and Freeze conditions ending this morning.
2) Seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week. Mainly dry conditions are favored through this weekend, but a weak cold front may provide some showers and storms Friday.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1)
Updated at 942 AM...
Frost and freeze conditions have ended as temperatures have warmed. The frost/freeze headlines have been expired.
KEY MESSAGE 2)
The Ohio Valley quickly breaks out of the seasonably cool pattern today as mid level ridging and associated height rises usher in a warmer air mass. Temperatures rebound into the lower to upper 60s today, with seasonably warm temperatures expected through early next week.
Ensemble members from global models continue to show a primarily dry air mass remaining intact through the weekend. PWATs of 0.5" or less are in place midweek, slightly increasing to near 1.0" on Friday ahead of a cold front. This will be our best chance for a passing shower and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder, but thunder potential remains low with very limited instability. PoPs have increased as more models are initializing precip, but overall QPF remains unimpressive.
PWATs quickly drop back to near 0.5" or below for the weekend. Lower H5 heights on Saturday will suppress daytime highs a bit, but guidance still suggests temps climbing into the lower 60s to near 70 across the CWA. The H5 ridge becomes amplified on Sunday, resulting in daytime highs pushing 80+ degrees, which would be ~20 degrees above seasonal normals. Similar temperatures expected into the beginning of the next work week, with perhaps another chance for showers/storms returning Tuesday.
AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR conditions prevail through the taf period. Some mid level clouds continue to spill in from the west this morning before dissolving this evening. Surface winds will be out of the east this morning but gradually veer to the SE this afternoon, increasing to around 10 kts or so in magnitude during the daytime hours.
Continued a mention of LLWS tonight at KCVG, adding it for KLUK and KDAY.
OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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