textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move southeast of the area early this morning. Rain will end early, then drier and cooler conditions will move in later today and will last through Thursday.

2) Unsettled conditions will return late Friday into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front was located just east of the I-71 corridor at 06Z. This front will continue to move southeast over the next several hours. A weak wave of low pressure riding along the front will keep showers going through daybreak, however radar trends and latest model guidance indicates the western edge of the rain making into our western CWA around or just before daybreak, with PoPs decreasing from west to east through the early morning hours.

After the rain ends, clouds may hang on for a few hours, however guidance suggests some breaks in the clouds occurring during the late morning/midday hours before mostly cloudy skies return for much of the afternoon.

At least partial clearing is expected tonight, and this will help temperatures to drop into the upper 30s north to lower/mid 40s south. Will continue to include patchy frost for a couple hours in our extreme north/northwest counties where lows in the upper 30s are forecast. Cool but dry conditions are expected Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Low level southerly winds return on Friday, helping to moderate temperatures. Models show a shortwave trough bringing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms from late Friday into early Saturday. Highest PoPs are forecast on Friday night.

The majority of Saturday will be dry, then another shortwave/cold front will move from west to east across the area on Sunday bringing the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Behind the front, the start of next week looks cooler and drier at this point.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Cold front moving to the southeast has allowed for a wind shift to the north and lower ceilings to develop. Most guidance continues to point toward IFR ceilings for the balance of the night, along with additional showers with MVFR-IFR visibilities. The western edge of steady rain likely makes it to the Dayton/Cincinnati terminals in the 10Z-11Z time frame, then further east shortly after. After the rain ends, there may be a period of lingering IFR/MVFR conditions but flight conditions will likely improve within a few hours after daybreak and then prevailing VFR conditions are expected for the rest of the valid TAF period. Winds will be from the north 10 to 15 knots today, then will shift to the west tonight diminishing to around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night into early Saturday. MVFR conditions and thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.