textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler temperatures will be observed today as high pressure builds across the Great Lakes. Warm temperatures return Sunday through the middle of next week with rainfall chances returning Monday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

High pressure builds across the Great Lakes today, providing dry conditions with slightly cooler temperatures. Highs are expected to range from near 60 north to the lower 70s south. Clouds linger the longest across southern portions of the area, but will give way to increasing sunshine as we head into the afternoon.

A broad mid level ridge builds over the Ohio Valley and the eastern CONUS Sunday and persists through the entire work week. Some fire weather concerns may develop Sunday as southwesterly winds increase with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. Along with the gusty winds, minimum relative humidity values of 25 to 30 percent are expected over northeast Kentucky and the Lower Scioto River Valley.

A few weak disturbances moving within the northern periphery of the ridge provide chances for showers and thunderstorms during each day during the upcoming work week. Surface moisture does increase into the Ohio Valley, but each day lacks a significant forcing mechanism, which will limit chances for widespread severe weather.

A moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours.

The best threat for showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday as a disturbance passes to our north and the northern portion of the mid level ridge is suppressed. A cold frontal passage next weekend may lead to another enhanced chance for showers and thunderstorms but confidence is low due to model solution spread regarding timing and strength.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A period of MVFR clouds will impact the TAF sites early this morning in the wake of a cold front. Clouds scatter out with conditions improving to VFR this morning as surface high pressure builds across the Great Lakes today. A few cumulus clouds will be likely this afternoon along with some high level clouds. Expect VFR conditions to continue tonight with only some high level clouds spilling into the region.

Northeast winds around 10 kts today become east at less than 10 kts tonight. Southwest winds develop Sunday and increase during the day with gusts up to 25 kts in the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times Monday through Wednesday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.