textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued frost advisory for tonight into early Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of frost are likely tonight. Freeze conditions are also possible, especially from Central Ohio through the Scioto and Hocking Valley.

3) Showers with scattered thunderstorms for early in the workweek will be followed by cooler than normal temperatures from midweek into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow aloft with the center of surface high pressure over the Central Plains building into the TN Valley by morning. Clouds across the area will decrease this evening with the loss of heating and as the mean trof axis shifts east. Expect mainly clear skies with only some high level clouds spilling into the region late. Low temperatures are expected to bottom out in the lower and middle 30s. Have issued a frost advisory for the entire region. Some colder locations - especially across the Scioto River Valley will have the potential for freezing temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A period of showers with scattered thunderstorms will be observed from Monday thru Thursday. The best chance for rain looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday when a surface wave tracks along a front moving thru the region. This will be followed by cooler than normal temperatures from midweek into next weekend.

Weak instability develops into the region as the high exits Monday through Wednesday, bringing the periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms. Forcing and instability look to be relatively weak, so strong to severe storms are not expected at this time. Moisture increases with PWATs of 1 to 1.5 inches Tuesday night along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Ensembles indicating greater than 60 percent chance for greater than an inch of rainfall Tuesday night and a 20-25 percent chance for more than 2 inches. This signal is noted at this time and will be watched as we get closer but it is too early for an exact location or amount.

Persistent mid level troughing over the eastern CONUS through late next week and into the weekend will allow below normal temperatures to settle into the area especially from Wednesday onward. At this time, do not observe a strong signal for additional frost, as clouds will be more persistent.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Northwest flow aloft with the center of surface high pressure over the Central Plains building into the TN Valley by morning. VFR clouds across the area will decrease this evening with the loss of heating and as the mean trof axis shifts east. Expect mainly clear skies with only some high level clouds spilling into the region late tonight.

VFR conditions continue thru Sunday afternoon with mid and high level clouds increasing ahead of a weak shortwave and weakening front. Can not rule out a shower at the 30 hour KCVG TAF site late in the day but coverage would be limited and low levels remain dry - so these showers would be falling from a VFR cloud deck.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs are possible Monday and Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.