textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will result in dry conditions and a warming trend for the region Monday into Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will bring the next chance for precipitation to the Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will be followed by a much colder airmass for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Mid level trough axis will push off to our east through the rest of this afternoon. This will allow for the lingering light snow showers and flurries to taper off from west to east through the rest of this afternoon. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys through tonight. As the low level flow backs, we should see a decreasing cloud/wind trend from the southwest overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

The surface high will shift slowly off to the east Monday into Monday night while west to northwest flow persists aloft. Some weak mid level energy could lead to some mid/high level clouds at times. Temperatures will slowly moderate with highs on Monday in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Monday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A broad longwave trough over eastern Canada and CONUS will be in place at the start of the extended. A deepening shortwave within this flow will move into the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday, accompanied by a 45-50 knot jet. This will promote strong southerly flow at the surface during the daytime hours on Tuesday, with gusts between 20-30 MPH possible during the afternoon hours. Tuesday's high temperatures reach the upper 40s; an approaching cold front will introduce precipitation to the forecast Tuesday night and ptype look to remain all rain given the warm lower layers of the column. Immediately on the heels of this cold front, a secondary shortwave lobe pivots around the larger flow, also deepening as it moves over the Great Lakes. This feature will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air as well as robust lift and deep layer moisture. As the column cools, p-type will begin to mix over to a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some details still need to be ironed out, but decent consensus for some accumulating snowfall during this time period as well as much colder temperatures. Wednesday night's lows look to fall to the teens with Thursday's highs in the 20s.

As we head toward the weekend, our attention then turns to the next wave of energy on our doorstep, but significant differences in timing/placement prevent much confidence at this junction. For now, have maintained the blend, which reintroduces chance snow showers for the weekend, with well below average temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Scattered light snow showers and flurries will taper off through this afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves off to our east. Surface high pressure will build into the region overnight and into the day on Monday. Other than some local MVFR cigs/vsbys at times this afternoon, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. West winds gusting in the 25 to 30 knot range this afternoon will begin to decrease somewhat as we head into tonight as the surface high starts to build in.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday through Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.