textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood watch is no longer in effect.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Overland flooding threat is diminishing.

2) Near record temperatures possible Friday.

3) More showers and storms expected on Saturday.

4) Very warm but unsettled conditions expected midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Overland flooding threat is diminishing.

Showers have been decreasing in coverage as the short wave continues east across the region. The tail end of the showers extending southwest may linger across the southern counties into the late afternoon, but rainfall is not expected to be substantial and will also occur south of the areas that are most saturated. So no new additional overland flooding is expected and thus the flood watch has been allowed to expire. Flooding from earlier rainfall continues in some areas, with water slowly receding. As water continues to work its way through the system, there will continue to be rises on rivers.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Near record temperatures possible Friday.

Mid level ridge will build into the Ohio Valley on Friday. There is very good agreement that a strong anomaly in 850mb temperatures will develop over the Great Lakes and then translate east. Anomalies of 10 to 15C will extend south into the forecast area. Clouds will decrease in the afternoon and there will be persistent southerly flow. This will all end up leading to near record temperatures, both for highs and warm lows on Friday. Record warm lows may occur on on Saturday as well, but highs will fall several degrees short.

Records for March 6: CVG 74 (1910,1973) 60 (1956) CMH 76 (1973) 55 (1983) DAY 74 (1910, 2022) 58 (1946, 1956)

Records for Mar 7: CVG 79 (1974) 58 (1974) CMH 77 (1974, 1983, 2009) 56 (1974) DAY 76 (1974, 2000) 56 (2009)

KEY MESSAGE 3) More showers and storms expected on Saturday.

Sheared, positively tilted short wave moving through southwest flow will cross the region on Saturday. This will push a pre-frontal trough across the area during the day with a cold front following on Saturday evening. There are some minor, but important differences in the timing of the pre-frontal trough. A somewhat slower progression will allow more instability to develop in the forecast area which would increase the potential for strong to severe storms. At this stage, it still appears that the greatest threat for severe weather will be further east, but it will extend across the forecast area with the higher probabilities in eastern counties.

This will be progressive, so no lingering rainfall, but there could be locally higher amounts with any more robust convection. If that occurs, then this could pose a renewed flooding threat, but over a smaller area. The highest potential threat will exist in areas that remain saturated where heavy rain has occurred this week.

KEY MESSAGE 4) Very warm but unsettled conditions expected midweek.

Guidance suite is in decent agreement tracking a northern stream short wave from the upper Mississippi Valley to the Great Lakes Wednesday into Thursday. Associated surface low will pass northwest of the region. However a warm front extending ahead of the low will lift across the area on Tuesday bringing the next chance of showers and storms. More convection will occur on Wednesday as the trailing cold front slides through the region. There will be plenty of shear, so it is no surprise that various AI severe probabilities all indicate a risk in the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

It will get very warm in the warm sector with highs likely back in the 70s. Dynamic ensemble systems show the 850 mb anomaly not quite as strong as what will occur tomorrow, but the AIFS and AIGEFS are forecasting an anomaly of similar magnitude.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

There are variable ceilings to start the period. Whenever breaks in lower clouds are substantial, conditions are VFR. Expect these breaks to become less, which will lead to prevailing MVFR ceilings towards 00Z. Most likely, ceilings will eventually lower to IFR area wide and visibilities will have at least MVFR restrictions. Showers and possibly some storms will develop along a warm front late tonight into Friday morning and potentially affect KCVG/KLUK/KILN. Ceilings and visibilities will improve late in the period but still be MVFR.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Friday afternoon. MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely along with thunderstorms on Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.