textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased temperatures and decreased clouds this afternoon. No other significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions today, with a cold frontal passage tonight.

2) Precipitation next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Warm conditions today, with a cold frontal passage tonight.

Robust SSW flow has brought temperatures well into the 40s and 50s across the forecast area today, at least once the inversion has broken -- which has been slow for low-lying valley locations. Despite this, cloud cover has been slow to develop, and it may be another few hours before low clouds become established over the area.

A southward-moving cold front will cross through the area this evening. Some showers are expected to develop ahead of this front, but this would only impact the far southern and southeastern ILN CWA. There is some instability on HRRR soundings, enough to suggest a slight chance of thunder, but mainly southeast of the ILN forecast area. Added this into the forecast for parts of Lewis KY / Scioto OH.

In the NW flow tomorrow, one of the main uncertainties with the forecast is regarding how much in the way of low clouds and moisture will stick around. As a result, the temperature forecast tomorrow is on the lower side of confidence, and a cloudier solution may result in values a little lower than currently forecast. A gradual warming trend, with dry conditions, is then expected from Thursday to Friday to Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Precipitation next weekend.

A system will have the potential to bring precipitation chances to the region Saturday night into Sunday. There is quite a bit of uncertainty in how far north this system will be. The greatest chance for precipitation occurring is near and south of the Ohio River and the NBM focuses the highest precipitation chances in that area. Increased temperatures Saturday night so that the precipitation type stays rain instead of freezing rain since there is great uncertainty that far out and still a high probability that dry conditions will be present in areas where the NBM is currently giving freezing rain. Due to this did not want to highlight freezing rain when the probability of it occurring is low. Model trends have been to have less precipitation across the region and therefore flooding at this time is not a concern and therefore left any mention out of the HWO.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A cold front will continue to move southeast across our area through this evening. We have started to see some MVFR stratocu develop along the front early this evening. This will affect the TAFs early in the period but we will then likely get a several hour break in the clouds late this evening into the overnight hours. Additional MVFR stratocu will then develop in the CAA later tonight into the day on Wednesday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.