textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions expected, especially early next week, with a weak cold front bringing some precipitation Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

As high pressure moves east of the area, a period of generally southerly flow will begin to set up, starting a warming trend through much of the next week. This warming trend will be briefly broken by a weak cold front Friday afternoon/evening, but with even warmer temperatures expected Sunday through Tuesday.

Dry air will remain in place today into Thursday, and a well-mixed boundary layer will bring wind gusts Thursday afternoon into the 20-30 MPH range -- perhaps just slightly higher in the northern sections of the CWA. A weak cold front will move into southern lower Michigan by Thursday evening. It is not out of the question that a few light showers could make it as far south as the northern ILN counties, but this is not worth more than a 20-30 percent chance as of now, and any precipitation would be light if it were to occur.

Continued southwest flow will bring a slight increase in moisture on Friday, with precipitable water values of just over an inch ahead of the southward-moving cold front. It does look like there could be some weak instability associated with the front, so in addition to chances of rain exceeding 50 percent, there will probably be at least some chance for thunder as well. With instability, lapse rates, and overall wind flow all looking quite marginal, hazardous weather is unlikely, with parameters suggesting no more than a very slim chance at some gusty winds.

Surface high pressure will center itself over the Great Lakes on Saturday morning, bringing a dry and (relatively) cooler day for the ILN CWA. However, a prolonged period of southerly to southwesterly flow is then expected for the next several days, bringing highs into the 80s -- and lows into the 60s. In fact, values similar to the current forecast would be close to record high minimum temperatures for the time period from Sunday through Tuesday. There is high confidence in this period of warm conditions. Much lower confidence is the forecast for convection. It does look like there may be some chances for showers and storms from Monday and beyond, but uncertainty exists regarding the timing of any waves, and the track they may take around the northwest extent of the ridge -- dependent on the strength of the ridge itself.

AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Any precipitation is expected to stay north of the TAF sites. Mid and high clouds will move across the TAF sites at times through the TAF period. A few cu will also be possible during the day on Thursday. There will be the potential for some LLWS overnight tonight and during the daytime morning hours at KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Winds will pick up for the day on Thursday and gust around 18 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday into Friday night and then again on Monday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.