textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extended wintry mix and Advisory through 1 PM across our south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mixed precipitation will linger into early afternoon across our south.

2) Warmer and wetter conditions expected from Tuesday through the rest of the week, leading to increased potential for areal and river flooding late weekend into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures are lagging across our south a bit. Temperatures will slowly warm to around or above freezing through early afternoon, but until then, occasional freezing rain and sleet will be possible across our southern areas. Went ahead and extended the advisory across parts of the south and east through 1 PM.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Zonal flow across the CONUS today will amplify through the week as mid/upper level troughing forms over the western CONUS and ridging across the southeast. This will result in the development of broad, warm and moist southwest flow across the central into the northeast CONUS through the remainder of the week. Thus, expect a warming trend with occasional rounds of showers through the end of the forecast period.

Some stronger mid level energy will lift northeast in the flow on Wednesday as a warm frontal boundary shifts north into the Ohio Valley. Models are trying to pull some slightly better instabilities northeastward toward our area through the day on Wednesday. With fairly strong wind fields, the potential will exist for some lower end severe threat Wednesday into Wednesday evening, especially across southwest portions of our area.

PWs will trend up through Tuesday and then remain 2-3 times above normal for this time of year through the weekend. As a result, locally heavy rainfall will be possible at times. This will eventually lead to an increased hydro threat later this week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mixed pcpn is persisting along and south of the Ohio River late this morning. As temperatures slowly warm, this will transition over to light rain heading into this afternoon before tapering off.

A weak boundary will lift north across the region tonight into Tuesday morning. This will result in the potential for some light rain showers. In addition, moist low levels will result in widespread IFR to LIFR cig development heading into this evening and then persisting into Tuesday morning, along with areas of IFR or lower br.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are possible through Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for OHZ060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for INZ050- 058-059-066-073>075-080.