textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Made some adjustments to storm total snow amounts. Raised snow amounts an inch or so along and northwest of the I-71 corridor and lowered them an inch or so across the far southeast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant winter storm is underway across the region.

2) A prolonged period of bitterly cold conditions is expected through the upcoming workweek. Outdoor exposure should be limited through at least Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant winter storm is underway across the region.

Widespread snow across the region early this morning will continue to intensify over the next few hours as banding sets up southwest to northeast across our area. Biggest forecast challenge remains how far north the mixed pcpn will make it later this morning and into this afternoon. Most of the 00Z hi-res models are in fairly good agreement, bringing it as far north as an Owen County to Pike County line. Will run with this in the forecast but would not be surprised if it ends up making it a bit farther north just based on past experience.

Along and south of the mixed pcpn line, will continue to trend a little lower on snow amounts and up on ice accums a bit. Meanwhile, to the north of this mixed line, expect to see the heaviest snow totals, likely setting up along and north of the I-71 corridor. HREF mean snowfall rates push up into 1 to 1.5 inch per hour range for a several hour period over the next few hours and then persisting through much of the morning hours. This will then be followed by a lingering deformation band that will remain in place across much of the area through this afternoon before pulling off to the east this evening.

Hi-res models are in good agreement with a 10-14 inch band running southwest to northeast across our central forecast area, so will nudge up storm total accumulations accordingly. As the pressure gradient increases later this afternoon into this evening, northwest winds of 15 to 25 mph will result in some areas of blowing/drifting snow once the snow tapers off.

2) A prolonged period of bitterly cold conditions is expected through the upcoming workweek. Outdoor exposure should be limited through at least Friday.

Well below normal temperatures persist for the next 7 days thanks to repeated shots of arctic air and a deep snowpack. Multiple nights feature temperatures near zero/below zero with wind chills well below zero. Tuesday morning may end up featuring the coldest wind chills due to the combo of cold temperatures and breezy conditions. Wind chills below -15 are possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday mornings. Wednesday and Thursday are forecast to have the coldest actual temperatures, but calmer winds keep the wind chill slightly warmer than Tuesday morning.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Moderate to heavy snow will persist at the the TAF sites through the morning hours with IFR to VLIFR cigs and vsbys prevailing. Snow will then continue through much of the afternoon before tapering off this evening. IFR cigs will prevail through the TAF period with IFR vsbys this afternoon improving to MVFR this evening. Some blowing snow will be possible late in the TAF period as wind gusts increase up to and around 20 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for KYZ089>100. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for KYZ089>100. Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. Extreme Cold Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.