textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes from the previous forecast. A low chance for snow showers this evening. Colder temperatures with light snow accumulation Sunday and Sunday night. Lake effect snow showers early Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low chance for snow showers this evening.

2) Snow potential for Sunday/Sunday night and Monday. Below normal temperatures late weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Weak isentropic lift develops this evening ahead of an embedded short wave ahead of digging mid level trof. High resolution model solutions show a period of light precipitation affecting ILN/s southeast counties for a few hours this evening. Have slight chance/chance pops generally along and southeast of I-71 between 00Z and 06Z. Boundary layer is initially warm over the far southeast - so any precipitation will likely be mixed with rain before changing to snow. Do not expect any accumulation from this precipitation.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level energy digging southeast from the Northern Plains will carve out a trof/low over the Ohio Valley Sunday. As the short wave energy moves thru the area expect snow showers to develop across the area late tonight into Sunday morning. The best coverage of snow looks to occur over the northeast half of the FA. Model solutions show additional mid level short wave energy dropping southeast through the region Sunday night with a northerly flow developing.

As strong CAA in the northerly flow favorable conditions for lake effect develop off the Great Lakes. This will keep a chance of snow showers in the forecast early Monday.

Have trended the forecast toward WPC QPF and snow - with a total snow for Sunday/Sunday night into Monday ranging from 2 inches or more over the northeast to less than an inch southwest. Will continue to mention this threat in the HWO product.

The coldest period of temperatures will be from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures are expect to range from the mid teens north to around 20 south. Below normal temperatures continue through the day on Tuesday. A warming trend is develops Wednesday ahead of the next system.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A period of MVFR ceilings will affect the northern TAF sites early this morning. Otherwise, mid and high level clouds will overspread the area today ahead of a mid level short wave. Weak isentropic lift may lead to a period of light snow this evening. Low levels are dry so any restrictions will be limited and the best moisture remains southeast of the TAF sites.

MVFR ceilings develop late tonight into Sunday as more widespread snow develops across the area. Expect snow to develop late in the TAF period with increasing coverage after 12Z Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday into Monday with snow. MVFR conditions are also possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.