textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure builds into the region offering cold temperatures and dry conditions through the daytime hours today. Snow will develop Monday night and continue into Tuesday morning as a upper level shortwave trough moves through the Ohio Valley. High pressure offers dry weather later Tuesday into Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

High pressure moves across the area today. Temperatures remain in the 30s under a mix of sun and clouds. Winds veer from the north to the east by the afternoon as high pressure shifts east.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

Widespread snow will move in from the west tonight between 8pm and midnight ahead of a shortwave upper level trough. The large area of snow quickly moves through during the overnight ending between 6am- 10am Tuesday morning as the trough axis moves east. Snowfall totals are moderately likely to fall into the 2-4 inch range for most locations. Areas closer the Ohio River may end up seeing a period of sleet or freezing rain since some warm air tries to work in from the south. Additionally, some locations could possibly exceed 4" if mesoscale banding sets up (no clear signal on location just yet). Regardless of exact amounts, travel difficulties are expected Monday night and during the Tuesday morning commute. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the entire area to highlight travel impacts and forecast snow totals.

After the snow moves east Tuesday morning, the rest of Tuesday looks to be cloudy, cold, and dry with light northwesterly winds.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

High pressure builds into the area Tuesday night through Thursday bringing cold and dry conditions. The next front cold front is then expected to arrive Thursday night which brings another reinforcing shot of cold air for Friday. Precipitation chances return on Friday and into the weekend as warmer air tries to work back into the Ohio Valley. Winter weather is certainly possible.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A slow-moving MVFR/IFR deck is settled across the area, with KCMH/KLCK on the nrn fringe of these CIGs. The LL flow will remain rather weak through the daytime, suggesting that scattering our may be incredibly slow. In fact, MVFR CIGs may persist into this evening, but some brief scattering out will be possible before the arrival of the SN.

The main item of interest for the TAF period is going to be the arrival of widespread SN (as well as reduced conditions) near/after 03z. The coverage and intensity of SN (and reduction to MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBY) will increase by 06z, becoming steadiest between 06z-11z before tapering off quickly between 11z-13z. The steadiest/heaviest SN will be accompanied by LIFR CIGs and VSBY, particularly between 07z-10z. CIGs will go from LIFR around 12z to MVFR into Tuesday afternoon.

Light NE flow will go more out of the E at 5-8kts this afternoon before going light/VRB overnight. Winds will go more out of the W around 5kts by 12z Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs will prevail into Tuesday. MVFR CIGs will also be possible Wednesday night into early Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.