textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense fog advisory is in effect for much of the CWA, excepting northern KY counties outside of the Cincy metro area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Another foggy morning.

2) Temperatures rising much above normal, with record breaking temps possible on Wednesday.

3) Chances for showers and a few storms, and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Fog this morning.

A dense fog advisory for areas north of the Ohio River is in effect until 10:00 this morning and could impact this morning's commute. As opposed to yesterday, this fog is not expected to linger into the later morning hours and should mix out/break up within an hour or two of daybreak. Southerly flow over 5 mph will enhance mixing.

A more patchy fog, locally dense is possible across the south should be inhibited from becoming more widespread due to a thicker layer of upper level clouds, inhibiting radiational cooling.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures rising much above normal, nearing records on Wednesday.

A building upper ridge looks to peak near IL/IN border this morning, with steady heights over the region found through this evening. S/w energy pushing underneath the upper ridge will then initiate height falls overnight that level out by late Wed morning. This is due to a warm front developing n/ne of the CWA in the GtLks, associated with a weakly closed upper low over MN at this time. South of this front, zonal wsw flow will keep near steady heights from Wed afternoon through Thurs night.

Underneath this will be a strong associated sfc low and a warm front extending ese ahead of it in the GtLks region. Our CWA and OhVly will be in the warm sector Wed, with strong sw wind advecting these unseasonably warm temps through the day. As the lljet noses into the region, enough isentropic lift may eke out a few showers in the morning, focused mainly in the ne CWA from Wapak to Cbus but low chances exist region wide. Then the jet crosses and winds weaken overnight, backing to the south.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Chance for showers/storms Thurs and increased winds Fri.

Thursday will again be well above normal, but a few deg cooler due to weak flow and increased cloud cover. Rain chances will increase from sw-ne during the afternoon - east of another sfc low that pivots n through the Upper Midwest. This low will have another warm front drape ese through the northern CWA, and rain chances are much better in the evening and early part of the overnight. Cold air will advect in overnight and Fri, with daytime highs Fri only rising about 10 deg above morning lows yet still remaining well above normals.

With these warm frontal processes occurring during the peak late day insolation Thurs, there should be enough shear for stronger storms to lay out some heavy rain and possibly damaging downbursts in larger discrete cells.

A cold front should cross east through the region on Friday with increased westerly winds. These winds will be around 15 mph in southern CWA and se IN, but a more respectable 20-25 mph in Ohio, with an exception in the lower Scioto Valley s of Chillicothe. These winds will be gustier than what is expected early Wed, with cold advection producing 25-30 mph gusts, strongest n of the I-70 corridor.

It should also be noted that we may observe some snow developing across our north this weekend, but will have to monitor trends before getting into too many details.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

After this morning's fog dissipates, conditions in the region will become VFR by noon and last through at least midnight. MVFR cigs are expected later overnight under and behind the leading edge of a lljet moving ne that will produce some llws. A little further behind the jet will be the possibility of widely scattered showers during the morning hours. If these showers do develop, they will be light, sporadic, and widely scattered - essentially negligible to aviation.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and some thunderstorms are possible Thurs night. Gusts to 25-30kt behind a cold frontal passage early Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ091>093. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-058-059- 066-074-075.