textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Freeze Warning has been allowed to expire as temperatures have warmed above freezing area-wide.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A seasonably cool and dry weather pattern will continue through midweek. Frost and Freeze conditions will be possible this morning and again tonight.

2) Above normal temperatures will return midweek and extend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A plume of scattered to broken stratocu is being advected in from Lake Michigan under northwesterly flow aloft. This may disrupt some of the efficient radiative cooling processes, but temperatures are still expected to drop to near or below freezing. Thus, have maintained the freeze warning for tonight. Frost development isn't expected to be widespread tonight given the mid-level clouds moving through and surface winds generally remaining around 5-10mph, but the potential freeze could still harm sensitive vegetation.

A similar weather pattern is expected again tonight, with the exception being that the surface high pressure system will be right overhead of us to start the night. This will promote clear skies and nearly calm winds to start the night, which will help with some atmospheric decoupling. Given these parameters, the vast majority of the CWA will be at risk of observing sub-freezing temperatures yet again. Additional Freeze headlines will likely be needed given this signal.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

After the potential freeze Wednesday morning, a rapid change in the weather pattern occurs that will bring above normal daytime highs for Wednesday and the remainder of this week. Broad, H5 ridging amplifies through the rest of the work week, with the Ohio Valley remaining firmly planted underneath this ridge. Rising heights underneath this ridge will result in an abnormally warm air mass for this time of the year. By Sunday, the ILN fa may observe daytime highs in the 80s yet again, which would be ~20 degrees above normal for that particular day.

During this seasonably warm stretch, PWATs remain quite dry in our CWA. Ensemble guidance pretty consistent in these lower PWATs through the majority of the week/weekend, but there is a subtle increase on Friday ahead of a weak cold front. We may observe a chance for showers/storms on Friday as a result, but otherwise, the majority of the period is favored to be dry.

AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR continues to prevail through the taf period. Some mid level clouds may continue to move across the terminals today before clearing overnight with the surface high moving overhead.

Sustained winds of 10-15 kts expected during the daytime hours. Winds will gradually veer through the day, starting NNE this morning and continuing to veer to the NE through the day.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.