textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend through Thursday.

2) Thunderstorms will be associated with a cold front passage that moves through Thursday night. Colder temperatures in the wake of this front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure centered over eastern Ohio shifting off to the east overnight thru Wednesday. Light winds will persist with only some high and mid level clouds over the area tonight. Low temperatures will be slightly above normal - ranging from the mid 30s northeast to near 40 southwest.

On the back side of the retreating high a southerly flow develops Wednesday. This will mark the be beginning of a warm up with highs generally in the mid and upper 60s.

An initial round of showers and embedded thunderstorms looks to affect the area overnight Wednesday associated with a warm front and favorable isentropic lift. This precipitation looks to pass off to the east Thursday morning. In stability is limited and elevated and severe weather is not expected from any storms that develop Wednesday night.

In the warm sector most of ILN/s area stays dry until surface cold front slips into the north late in the day into Thursday evening. Temperatures warm up over 20 degrees above normal. Expect highs from the upper 70s northeast to the lower 80s southwest. These readings will approach record highs.

The records for Thursday 3/26 CVG 82 set in 1907 DAY 81 set in 1907 CMH 80 set in 1907

There is the potential for readings to warm above the NBM mean of 80 at CVG, 79 at DAY, and 78 at CMH. The NBM 75th percentile exceeds these records by 1 degree. Also, the ECMWF mos is at or slightly above the NBM mean guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Strong mid level winds push south thru the Great Lakes Thursday night into the Ohio Valley Friday. A strong cold front will push south into ILN/s northern counties late Thursday evening and then south of the area overnight Thursday. Most of the model solutions suggest that a CAP will inhibit convective development until the strong low- level forcing arrives with the frontal boundary. ML guidance and analogs point to the potential for severe weather with the storms Thursday night. This lines up well with SPC/s placement of a slight risk. At this time expect linear convective segments with damaging winds being the main threat.

The front exists the area early Friday with lingering rain showers ending in the morning. Much cooler highs on Friday are expected to range from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Ohio to continue sliding off to the east. Expect continued VFR conditions with only some high and mid level clouds overnight. Thicker mid/high level clouds will likely thin some early Wednesday before increasing late in the day into Wednesday evening.

Light and variable winds will become southeast early Wednesday and then southerly at 8-10kts Wednesday afternoon with gusts up to 20 kts possible.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Wednesday night/early Thursday. Thunderstorms with associated MVFR to IFR cigs/vsbys are expected overnight Thursday. MVFR CIGs may linger into early Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.