textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today. More showers and storms will move across the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A weak front bisecting ILN's area from northwest to southeast will continue to sag south across the region today. Favorable moisture is in place with an axis of PWATs of 1.6-1.8 inches pooled along and south of the front. Expect moderate instability to develop this aftn with MLCAPE values of 1500-1750 J/KG. This will allow for the development of scattered showers and storms in a northwest-southeast oriented zone across the middle of the forecast area in the frontal zone. Shear is very low with effective shear of 10 kts or less. With a very moist environment the main impact today will be locally heavy rain.

Narrow mid level ridge axis to shift east of the area Monday with shortwave slowly tracking from the Mid MS Vly into the Western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This shortwave will then turn eastward Tuesday, moving east of the region by Tuesday evening. Moisture increases with PWATs forecast to increase to 1.8 to 2 inches and warm cloud depth will be 3.5km to 4km. As the favorable moisture returns showers and storms will develop into ILN/s western counties Monday afternoon. Convective activity should decrease Monday night but then become more widespread on Tuesday. The very moist airmass will offer a favorable environment for high rainfall rates and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Expansive mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Vly will extend northeast into the region on Wednesday. Model trends continue to indicate a solution that is more suppressed with this ridge later in the week with a progressive broad trough tracking east across southern Canada and the northern tier of the US. This will place the Ohio Valley on the southern end of the westerlies by the end of the week into next weekend.

Temperatures look to get very warm Wednesday into Thursday with readings potentially getting into the upper 80s. The change in the pattern will result in temperatures not quite as warm, although still above normal, with mid 80s for highs for late in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A weak front bisecting ILN's area from northwest to southeast will continue to sag south across the region today. Favorable moisture is in place with moderate instability to develop this aftn. This will allow for the development of scattered showers and storms in a northwest-southeast oriented zone across the middle of the forecast area in the frontal zone. Coverage of storms is expected to be isolated to scattered showers along and south of the front. This activity could bring temporary MVFR conditions to all but the central Ohio TAF sites. With the loss of heating storms are expected to dissipate this evening with VFR conditions forecast overnight. The potential for visibility restrictions at KLUK can not be ruled out late tonight if clouds scatter out, but probability continues to be low enough to exclude.

Additional thunderstorms are expected Monday afternoon across the west and southwest. Have included a prob30 mention at the KCVG 30 hour TAF site.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Monday through Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.