textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A weak low pressure system will bring scattered light rain showers back into the area late tonight through the daytime Friday.

2) Some frost is possible Friday night and again Saturday night, with impacts to sensitive vegetation likely.

3) Extended period of cooler conditions settles into the region through the weekend, with slowly moderating temperatures into early next week. A seasonably cool pattern with several chances for light rain will evolve through most of the next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A S/W embedded within the broad/deep trough centered over the Great Lakes and interior NE CONUS will pivot to the SE into the OH Vly late this evening into early Friday morning. This will provide enough lift amidst a sufficiently-saturated profile to generate several disorganized bands of showers tonight through into the day Friday. Even as the weak sfc wave translates to the E Friday afternoon, some weak instby with steepening (very deep) LL lapse rates may allow for ISO/SCT SHRA to develop mid/late afternoon, with some ISO TS and very small hail possible given the cool thermal profile and some very shallow instby below -10C.

Highs on Friday will only top out in the mid to upper 50s, with around 60 near/S of the OH Rvr.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Cooler air will filter into the region Friday/Friday night. Although there is the potential that the wind may stay up just a bit out of the NW and some clouds may linger near/SE of I-71, some frost will be possible in parts of WC and central OH and EC IN. It is certainly not a slam dunk frost setup, but the air temps may dip close to freezing in parts of the area by early Saturday morning. Those with sensitive vegetation will need to monitor the forecast for updates, with frost also possible on Saturday night as well. In fact, the setup for areas of frost is probably a bit more favorable Saturday night into early Sunday than will be the case Friday night into early Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Persistent anomalously-deep troughing will remain entrenched across the ern CONUS through much of the next week. This will yield an extended stretch of below normal temps for the OH Vly, with a few brief warm-ups to near normal before cooler air quickly moves back into the region.

Several chances for rain will also evolve early next week as a front stretches out across the OH Vly, with zonal flow aloft becoming established. This will occur as deep troughing impinges into the nrn Great Lakes, with enhanced midlevel flow developing from the mid MS Rvr Vly into the OH Vly. Several disturbances will propagate E within this flow, providing opportunities for episodic showers Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A deck of MVFR CIGs is overspreading the terminals from the N and will continue to do so before lifting/scattering to VFR between 15z-18z. There is still some uncertainty regarding the persistence of MVFR CIGs at srn sites of KCVG/KLUK, but have included a TEMPO in the fcst for now given latest trends. Stratocu/cu will scatter out completely late in the day, with cirrus overspreading from the W toward sunset and beyond.

More widespread cloud cover will move back into the area by/after 06z, with some SCT SHRA as well between 06z-12z Friday. Several broken bands of SHRA are expected to move W to E through the area around daybreak Friday, continuing thereafter into the daytime. MVFR CIGs may briefly return in the several hour period around sunrise.

NW winds of 7-9kts will increase to 10-12kts, with gusts between 15-20kts, by/after 15z. Wind will subside quickly around 00z to less than 5kts, going more out of the S by 06z and going more out of the SW by 12z. A sharp/abrupt change in wind direction from SW to NW is expected with the FROPA between 12z-15z Friday.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.