textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expired tornado watch and added mention of heavy rain early this morning. Bumped up wind gusts today. Bumped up snow potential with light snow accumulations Sunday/Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for heavy rain this morning. Gusty winds occur today behind a strong cold front.

2) Snow potential for Sunday/Sunday night. Below normal temperatures late weekend into early next week. .

DISCUSSION

1) Mid level and deep surface low over the Mid MS Valley to track ENE thru the Great Lakes today. Anomalously high PWAT with values above 1 inch over the central and eastern counties. An axis of heavy rain has fallen from Dayton to Columbus with a max of 3 inches plus across portions of Greene, Madison and Fayette counties. Showers with embedded thunder tracking across this area will decrease in coverage and end with the passage of a strong cold front from west to east between 3 AM and 6 AM.

In the wake of the strong front pressure gradient increases with strong CAA. Looking at forecast soundings and momentum transfer technique have bumped up wind gusts above NBM today. Expect wind gust of 40-45 mph across the north and 35-40 mph across the south. This is below wind advisory criteria - so will issue a SPS for this threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Energy digging southeast from the Northern Plains will carve out a large trof over the Eastern Conus. As the short wave energy moves thru the area expect snow showers to develop across the area on Sunday. As strong CAA develops in the northerly flow favorable flow for lake effect will develop off the Great Lakes. Have trended the forecast toward WPC QPF and snow - with a total snow for Sunday/Sunday night ranging from 2 inches or more over the northeast to less than an inch southwest. Will mention this threat in the HWO product.

Cold surface high pressure builds into the region Monday night and Tuesday which will bring lighter winds and the lowest overnight low temperatures. Expect highs on Monday generally in the lower 30s with lows Monday night from the teens north to around 20s south.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms will taper off from the west overnight as a cold front moves through the region between 08Z and 11Z. Until then, MVFR to locally IFR conditions will be possible with the showers and storms with the best coverage across the northern TAF sites. In addition, marginal LLWS will be possible overnight hours.

Behind the front, winds will become westerly late tonight and increase this morning. Gusts of 30 to 35 knots will be possible during the daytime. Clouds will likely become MVFR for a period at KDAY/KCMH and KLCK with an improvement to VFR late in the day. VFR conditions expected tonight with west winds diminishing to around 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Sunday in snow showers.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.