textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased precipitation amounts across portions of the region for Wednesday. Increased severe potential wording below for Monday into Monday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures through the week.

2) Multiple systems will bring showers and a chance of thunderstorms to the region at times through the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Above normal temperatures are expected through the week with high temperatures in the 70s today and Wednesday. 70s and 80s are expected for Thursday and Friday. 60s and 70s will be present for the weekend before a return to 70s to around 80 for Monday. No frost and freeze conditions are expected over the next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A system will drop down into the region tonight bringing primarily showers to the region. Instability is limited and therefore not expecting a lot in the way of thunderstorm activity, however cannot rule out some thunderstorms. This system will start to work north back through the area for Wednesday and expect additional development starting across west central portions of the region. There is more instability during the afternoon and therefore expect thunderstorm development with this activity. Increased the QPF footprint with this activity. Cannot rule out a strong storm. This activity will taper down Wednesday evening. There is also the potential for some ponding of water in spots with some west to east orientation.

Generally expect dry conditions on Thursday, although an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out across eastern portions of the area.

Another system works into the area for Friday into Friday night. There is decent upper support with this system and some instability. There is the potential for a line of storms on Friday that could bring at least an isolated chance for severe weather.

A stronger storm system will move through Monday into Monday night. Will continue to keep an eye on this system as details resolve to focus on timing, strength, and potential severe impacts.

Confidence was not high enough to include any of these days in the HWO at this time, however as details resolve there will be the potential for severe weather to be highlighted in the HWO in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Gusty surface winds out of the southwest will decrease after sunset this evening, though remain out of the southwest. A strong LLJ will be in place around 5k ft, resulting in the need for LLWS added to all TAF sites during the overnight hours tonight. LLWS will decrease around daybreak on Wednesday. Surface winds remain out of the southwest, around 10 knots through the remainder of the period.

Overnight tonight, scattered showers will drop down into the Ohio Valley from the north. Have added in periods of -SHRA through the overnight. For now, did not include thunder, though some very weak elevated instability is possible so thunder may need to be added to TAFs as the showers get closer.

This line will stall out somewhere across the region from the northwest to the southeast on Wednesday. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to fire along that line during the afternoon/evening hours, though confidence on location and timing isn't high at the moment. Have handled it with PROB 30s for now.

Concurrent with that line sagging down into our region, some MVFR CIGs will also sag south, likely covering TAF sits along and north the I-71 corridor for a portion of Wednesday morning into early afternoon before scattering out.

OUTLOOK....Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon/evening. MVFR conditions/ thunderstorms will be possible Friday/Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.