textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Frost Advisory tonight for the entire area.

Issued a Freeze Watch for Monday night across the northern half of the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Colder and dry conditions can be expected through Tuesday night. Frost and Freeze conditions will be possible tonight, Monday night and Tuesday night.

2) Above normal temperatures will return starting mid week and extending into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Widespread stratus across the area this afternoon will erode away from the southwest heading into this evening as surface high pressure builds into the mid Ohio Valley. This will also lead to a decrease in winds with some decoupling likely later tonight across at least the southeast two thirds of our area -- and this is where the highest confidence in frost development exists. Frost development will be a bit trickier across our northwest as a cold front will approach from the northwest later tonight. This will lead to some increase in clouds and winds late which may limit frost development. However, given some of the uncertainty, have opted to err on the side of caution and issue a Frost Advisory for our entire area tonight.

A reinforcing shot of cold air will move in behind the front Monday into Monday night. This will lead to sub-freezing temperatures Monday night across about the northern half of our area -- where we have issued a Freeze Watch. We may eventually need a frost advisory for Monday night across our south but this will be dependent on how much winds are able to stay up through the night.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Developing mid/upper level southwest flow will lead to a warming trend through mid week with above normal temperatures expected to persist into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

MVFR to VFR stratus across the area this afternoon will erode away from the southwest heading into this evening as surface high pressure builds into the mid Ohio Valley. A cold front will then drop southeast through the region late tonight into Monday. This will lead to an increase in MVFR to lower VFR cigs from the north late tonight and into Monday morning.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074. KY...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EDT Monday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Freeze Watch from late Monday night through Tuesday morning for INZ050-058-059-066.