textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost advisory will end later this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of frost are likely, ending by mid morning. Freeze conditions between 30 and 32 degrees are possible from Central Ohio through the Scioto and Hocking Valley.

3) The arrival of an unsettled weather pattern will bring an increase of shower activity, peaking on Tuesday into Wednesday when embedded thunderstorms are also possible. Once the midweek system exits the region, scattered showers will linger, along with cooler than normal temperatures through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

An upper NW flow pattern continues, with surface high pressure over the TN and southern Ohio Valley bringing mostly clear skies. Best chance of frost/freeze this morning will be in the mid/lower Scioto and Hocking river valleys. Some southerly return flow will begin across the tri state near/after daybreak. In the lingering NW flow later today, a weak shortwave will push through Indiana and weaken as it shifts into Ohio. Scattered light showers are possible, but limited low level moisture will limit widespread precip.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

As surface high pressure exits the region and a more zonal upper pattern develops, showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible Monday through Thursday. The most likely rain potential is late Tuesday into Wednesday when a frontal boundary stretched across the region serves as a focal area for a wave of low pressure, along with increasing low level moisture.

Ensemble probabilities of > 1" of rain ramp up to at least 60 percent especially in the tri state, with continued 20-25% chance of 2" of rain from Tuesday through early Wednesday. PWATs reach 150-160% of normal for early May. Will have to monitor for the potential for small stream flooding, though with the seasonal transition into early May, 1-2" over 24 hours may not pose an issue. Will have to monitor precip potential with this system when it comes into the range of the CAMs.

The shallow mid level troughing pattern will keep below normal temperatures and plenty of clouds across the region from Wednesday into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period. Generally SKC through 12-15z, with a currently dissipating mid level deck descending from near KDAY to KILN. As surface high pressure centered south of the region weakens and pushes ESE, southerly surface winds increase this afternoon with gusts to near 20kts expected. A weakening shortwave trough may bring scattered VFR showers to KDAY between 19-23z, but any activity will be from a mid deck and will continue to diminish as it moves into Ohio with dry low level conditions in place.

Better chances of MVFR ceilings at KLUK/KCVG with a secondary shortwave centered over central KY potentially bringing showers toward 12z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings are possible into Monday morning. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday into Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.