textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded flood watch.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A deep low pressure system brings the chance for severe thunderstorms, flash flooding, and gusty winds overnight.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Showers and embedded thunderstorms continue to move across the area. Severe thunderstorms are expected to move across the area overnight. There is quite a bit of shear in addition to strong winds with this system and therefore damaging winds and tornadoes will be a threat. In addition, given a somewhat west to east orientation there will be the potential for flash flooding as well and did some expansion of the flood watch for flash flooding as well. Gusty winds will be possible outside of thunderstorms and also during the day on Thursday as well.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Rain showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue to move across the region this evening. During the overnight hours a broken line of storms is expected to move through the TAF sites. Have tempo IFR conditions along with thunderstorms and gusty winds. Went with wind gusts around 35 to 40 knots as the storms move through, however there is the potential for some higher gusts. Wind gusts are also expected at times overnight outside of thunderstorms as well. LLWS is expected too overnight.

Thunderstorms will move out of the TAF sites by morning and there will be a brief decrease in winds although not expecting them to go calm. Winds will pick up during the day on Thursday with additional wind gusts. Cu are expected in addition to some mid and high clouds on Thursday. Some scattered shower activity during the afternoon is also possible.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for OHZ042-051-053-060>062-070- 071-077>079-081. KY...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for KYZ089>099. IN...Flood Watch through Thursday morning for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075- 080.