textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added potential for fog.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain today.

2) Fog potential tonight into Monday morning.

3) Temperatures rising much above normal.

4) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain today.

Rain will continue to move across the region, passing off to the east during the afternoon. West central Ohio will remain on the northern edge of the rain. The rest of the area will get between 1/4 and 3/4 inch total.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Fog potential tonight into Monday morning.

It appears that clouds will decrease tonight, except perhaps in central Ohio. There is only medium confidence on this occurring and over how much of the area. Higher confidence that there will be a lot of lingering low level moisture after today's rain and winds will be light as high pressure moves in. Wherever clouds diminish will be favorable for fog formation late tonight, which could become dense. Too much uncertainty to get too specific, but the potential is there. Fog will linger well into Monday morning before dissipating.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Temperatures rising much above normal.

Mid level ridging will spread into the area for the first half of the week. Surface high pressure over the area on Monday will move off to the east, beginning a prolonged period of southerly low level flow. This will bring a warming trend for the first half of the week. Even as heights get suppressed towards mid week, low level flow will strengthen. Guidance continues to suggest that record warmth is possible, both for highs and lows, on Wednesday. Highs may be similar on Thursday, at least across the southern part of the area, but records for Thursday are warmer.

KEY MESSAGE 4) Chance of rain and increased winds mid to late week.

Model suite in pretty good agreement in lifting a short wave from the central Plains into the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. Associated surface low will pass well north of the region. Warm front extending from this low will also remain north and that is where the majority of rain will occur. But there may be enough mid level forcing to result in some showers occurring across the forecast area in the warm sector with recent trends suggesting that this chance is increasing. Pressure gradient will tighten which will bring gusty winds. Probabilities of wind gusts in excess of 30 mph remain high, 60 to 90 percent.

In the wake of Wednesday system, a boundary may sag into the region. This will lift back north as the next area of low pressure approaches Thursday night. Some differences in the strength of the mid level forcing, but this will bring another chance of rain Thursday night. Low pressure will once again pass north of the area, but a trailing cold front will sweep across the region on Friday. Once the cold front passes, the chance of rain will diminish substantially.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Rain has caused visibilities to fall to IFR and ceilings are expected to follow or even get into LIFR early in the period. Rain will move east of the terminals by 18Z. Visibility will increase quickly after that but ceilings will be very slow to improve. Clouds are forecast to scatter after 00Z. But conditions will be favorable for fog to develop during the latter part of the period with visibility likely falling to LIFR except at the Columbus terminals where visibility should be higher, perhaps only MVFR.

OUTLOOK...IFR to LIFR visibilities continue into Monday morning. MVFR ceilings and wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.