textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong storm system will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.

2) Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes during end of the week bringing the next chance of precipitation to the area, along with a period of gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A strong storm system will move through the region during the middle of the week bringing the potential for severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.

On Tuesday, strengthening southwesterly flow continues to advect in warm, moist air from Gulf throughout the day. Temperatures top out in the middle to upper 70s accompanied by dew points reaching into the 60s under a mix of sun and clouds. This high theta e air will then contribute to a threat for thunderstorms Tuesday night through Wednesday.

On Tuesday night, a surface low deepens in the Plains ahead an upper level trough and progresses quickly eastward toward the Great Lakes. This low will contribute to a strengthening LLJ overnight atop a weak temperature inversion and isothermal layer. Thunderstorms may form overnight along the LLJ and pose a hail threat with elevated instability in place.

On Wednesday, the low continues to deepen and progresses through the lower Great Lakes along with a cold front. Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts upward of 40 mph appear increasingly likely ahead of the front especially along and southeast of I-71 during the afternoon.

For the afternoon and evening, showers and thunderstorms are expected to form ahead of front as it progresses southeast through the Ohio Valley. Initially, a CAP may be in place during the early afternoon before ascent ahead of the approaching trough erodes the CAP later in the afternoon. Once the CAP erodes, storms ahead of the front could pose a risk for any mode of severe weather (wind, hail, tornado). Storm mode is likely to be multi cellular/squall line due to mean flow being largely parallel to the boundary. Locally heavy rain is likely, but overall QPF should be limited due to the storms being progressive. Storm chances end Wednesday evening after FROPA.

2) Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes during end of the week brings the next chance of precipitation to the area, along with a period of gusty winds.

Another strong, compact low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes around the Friday timeframe. Although some mixed precipitation is possible, the main focus on Friday will likely be the stronger winds in the tight pressure gradient around the low.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Strengthening southwest low level flow this evening could lead to some marginal LLWS through about 06Z. This will also help advect some increasing low level moisture into the region through the overnight hours with MVFR cigs overspreading the TAF sites. This may eventually trend into IFR cigs late tonight into Tuesday morning. There is some disagreement in the models as to how low cigs will get though so for now will hedge with a tempo period for IFR cigs. MVFR cigs should then lift into VFR conditions through the afternoon in continued low level southwest flow.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings possible through Thursday morning. Wind gusts above 30 kt possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts above 40 kt possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.