textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances over the weekend and the middle of next week.

2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain chances over the weekend and the middle of next week.

Short wave moving across the middle part of the country in phase with a closed low tracking across the southeast will pass across the region late Saturday night and Sunday. There is rather good agreement within the model suite with the exception of the 00Z NAM, which is displaced slightly further north with the closed low which results in a bit more amplitude in the northern wave. This leads to a somewhat stronger low level jet that brings lift and thus the rain shield further north across the forecast area. Aside from this outlier, rain will be mainly across northern Kentucky, southeast Indiana, and southern Ohio.

NBM QPF has been fluctuating a bit from run to run, but ensemble systems are being pretty consistent in rainfall probabilities of 1/2 inch or more being negligible north of the Ohio River with a pretty sharp gradient southwards across Kentucky. Snow melt is already working its way through the river systems across the southern half of the area, so by the time this rain moves in, there will not be a significant contribution from snow melt, although rainfall runoff will be efficient. Cannot rule out some elevated stream levels or even a bit of nuisance flooding, but it continues to look like the chance of any substantial flooding is extremely low.

West southwest flow will become established across the continent mid to late next week. Initial short wave will track near the region on Wednesday with a subsequent system later in the week. There is still much to be resolved in terms of details, but this does result in a chance of more rain from Wednesday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

Broad mid level ridge will move across the region during the first half of the week. Surface high pressure will move east allowing southerly flow to become established and strengthen towards midweek, although some ECMWF and AIFS members do sag a front into the area for Tuesday before retreating northwards. This will result in much above normal temperatures. If the region remains in the warm sector, would not be surprised if temperatures end up even a little warmer than current forecast. Going old school, extended MOS temperature forecasts tend towards climatology heading out further in time, so when MOS is forecasting more than 20 degrees above normal next Wednesday, it is significant. Not looking at reaching records yet, but something to keep an eye on.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings around KCMH will move east early in the period. There may be some visibility restrictions at KLUK in mist before 12Z. Otherwise, VFR will prevail. Some mid clouds will drop southeast across the region during the first half of the period and there could be some diurnal cumulus near the Cincinnati terminals.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities likely Saturday night into Sunday. MVFR ceilings may linger into Sunday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.