textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some adjustments to low temperatures through Sunday night. Issued a cold weather advisory for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Made some adjustments to precipitation amounts for Monday and Tuesday systems.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

2) A few chances for snow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak will continue through this weekend, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited.

Well below normal temperatures will continue through the week with sub-zero wind chill values this weekend at times. Continued the extreme cold warning and cold weather advisory for this morning and issued a cold weather advisory for Saturday night into Sunday morning. There is some uncertainty with cloud cover Saturday night, but some breaks in clouds are expected and it does not take much with this snow pack and cold pattern to have temperatures drop to criteria. While some locations may rise above freezing briefly Monday, Tuesday, and Friday, expect temperatures to stay below normal through the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A few chances for snow.

While a few snow flurries will be possible today into tonight, confidence was not high enough to include at this time. A weak system moves across the region bringing the potential for some light snow across northern portions of the region. Little or no snow accumulation is expected with this system. Another system is expected to move across the region Tuesday into Wednesday morning. This system continues to have a lot of run to run variability with the models. The one part that has been somewhat consistent is that southern portions of the region have a greater chance for accumulating snow. Continued to go with WPC for QPF. Current model runs show very little if any snow north of Interstate 70 with south of interstate 70 showing the potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow with locally higher amounts possible. Decided to mention in the HWO, however did not get caught up with the details of the system quite yet with as much variability that has been present. Models have been pretty consistent with a system moving through Friday into Friday night. These clipper systems often overperform on snowfall values and therefore will have to watch for potential additional snowfall accumulations. Also mentioned this feature in the HWO.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Clouds northwest of the TAF sites will overspread the TAF sites this morning and through the afternoon hours before starting to decrease overnight. MVFR conditions are expected at times with these clouds. Cannot rule out some flurries, however did not include outside of a tempo at KDAY. A few wind gusts will be possible, however at this time just increase winds during the day.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible on Monday and then again Tuesday into Tuesday night during with some light snow.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for OHZ034-035-074-081- 082-088. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Extreme Cold Warning until noon EST today for OHZ026-042>046- 051>056-060>065-070>073-077>080. KY...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for KYZ089>100. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089>100. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon EST today for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.