textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms today have shifted eastward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week. Warmer temperatures will return mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms back across Illinois and parts of Indiana will continue to weaken this morning as they move east into a more stable airmass in place across Ohio. Models continue to trend faster with the eastward progression of the cold front today. In southerly flow ahead of the front, destabilization will occur late this morning into this afternoon. However, given the faster timing, the best axis of instability this afternoon will be mainly off to our east. As a result, expect mainly shower activity today with just the potential for some embedded thunderstorms across our west. In the east, there may be a small window this afternoon for some better thunderstorm development, but the best severe threat will generally be off to our east. Shower activity will continue into this evening before tapering off from west to east as the trough axis shifts through our area.

Behind the front, good CAA will develop tonight with a much cooler airmass settling into the region for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures both days will generally be in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Sunday night will be the coolest night with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This will lead to the potential for some frost/freeze conditions.

Mid level ridging will build into the Ohio Valley through mid week, leading to a warming trend through the second half of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will overspread the area from the west through the morning hours. This is ahead of a cold front that will push east across our area through this afternoon. Thunderstorm activity will likely become a bit more organized across our east as we get into some daytime heating ahead of the front. Will therefore include a prob30 for thunder at KCMH/KLCK for a few hour period this afternoon.

As the low levels become more saturated, MVFR cigs will develop heading into this afternoon. Meanwhile, showers will linger into this evening before ending west to east overnight. VFR conditions will return through the later portions of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK....MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.