textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A series of weak disturbances will bring a chance for light showers tonight into Tuesday morning and then again Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the end of the week, with a stronger cold front likely to bring some colder air back to the region by late this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Sfc high pressure has shifted off to the E, with return flow becoming established and deep-layer WAA underway. The strengthening SW flow will bring some moisture back into the area into this evening, with a gradual moistening of the column by late in the day.

An initial wing of isentropic lift is attempting to generate pcpn as it pivots to the NE through the region through mid afternoon, but a dry LL profile in the lowest 10kft, as sampled on the 22.12Z KILN RAOB, is inhibiting much (if any) of this from reaching the ground. But suppose that some brief light RASN will be possible with this axis of better lift/moisture in central OH through mid afternoon.

The better LL moisture will arrive late this evening through tonight, with sufficient forcing/moisture allowing for some pockets of light rain and drizzle to overspread the area from the SW. This light rain and drizzle will persist through the overnight into early Tuesday morning, potentially lingering in N KY into early afternoon, with total rainfall amounts less than one tenth of an inch.

LL saturation will become widespread by daybreak Tuesday for much of the area, so some brief BR/FG may also be possible amidst the patchier light rain and drizzle into mid morning. Temps will range from the upper 30s to mid 40s for overnight lows.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

The best forcing/lift will pull off to the E into early afternoon Tuesday as the LL baroclinic boundary sags to the S, eventually meandering into central/nrn KY by late in the day. The latest guidance suggests that the front will shift a bit further to the S by Tuesday night, helping some colder/drier air filter into nrn parts of the OH Vly during this time. This being said, there will still be quite a temp gradient across the area, with better moisture/warmth near/S of the OH Rvr as a drier/colder airmass attempts to settle in near/N of I-70.

Although most of the day will feature widespread OVC skies, there are indications for some clearing possible in EC IN and WC OH very late in the day.

Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower 50s in central OH to the mid/upper 50s in the Tri-State into N KY. Temps will dip into the upper 20s in the post-frontal environment near/N of I-70 by daybreak Wednesday, with warmer overnight lows in the lower 40s in N KY.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Upper level l/w features are in relatively good agreement through Fri night with a building ridge over the region. Beyond that the GFS is an outlier in how it evolves the next l/w trough originating in wrn Canada. GFS deepens the trough in a neg tilt and stretches it se, eventually cutting off with a closed low n of NY late Sun, and racing to be off the coast of ME by daybreak Mon. European and Canadian are reasonably similar in placement/evolution of this l/w trough. When the trough moves e and is located over NoDak Sat night, both models begin to cut it off, with the Canadian being the weaker of the two. The low continues to strengthen as it reaches WI/LkSup, though the Canadian has higher heights by 12dm. The low and trough axis cross the OhVly by daybreak Mon, with the center located n of LkHuron, and the European deeper showing a 17dm lower height than the Canadian.

Wed night is expected to have an area of rain pass se and across the CWA. This looks to be initiated by a 100+kt jet streak with the favorable right entrance quadrant of upward motion. H5 s/w energy and lower level convergence on the back side of h8 exiting ridge also come into play. If temps were cooler, it'd likely be a decent shot of snow. However, our region will wake up to soggy ground and exiting rainfall for the sern 1/2 of cwa. This back edge looks to be quicker than the models are showing and I'd think that all of CWA with exception of Lewis/Scioto counties would be done precipitating by daybreak.

Late thurs night and moreso on Fri shows notable rainfall over the region, with higher chances in central OH and n-newd. This is due to a warm front developing near the I-70 corridor and then moving nwd during the day as a sfc low tracks along it, shifting winds and introducing drier/cooler air in the evening. Models diverge a good bit but show some feature bringing rain to the area sometime between Sat night and Sunday.

Warm. Overnight lows will be a minimum of 5 deg higher than average highs. Temps rise through Fri/Fri night and then begin to fall on Sat. The difference GFS is showing is 15 deg cooler for both of these periods, showing the sfc low undercut the region whereas the Euro/Canadian keep us warm sectored with the low remaining over the GtLks. This cooler difference in the GFS lingers through Sun when it closes the gap to 10 deg cooler and comes in line overnight with Monday being close to climo.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A blanket of mid/high clouds will slowly pull off to the E past 21z, but an influx of LL moisture/clouds will arrive from the SW toward 00z and beyond. CIGs will go MVFR by 03z, and eventually IFR past 06z, for most of the area. The MVFR/IFR CIGs will be accompanied by some light SHRA and even some patchy DZ, too. MVFR VSBY will be possible past about 09z as CIGs go solidly IFR and some patchy DZ lingers behind the main axis of light SHRA. However, VSBY should return to VFR area-wide by 15z, even as IFR CIGs linger before returning to MVFR near the end of the period.

Light SE flow around 5-8kts will go more southerly by 00z and increase out of the WSW by 12z to around 12-15kts, with gusts around 20kts likely.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs and VSBY likely Wednesday night into Thursday with MVFR or IFR CIGs possibly lingering through Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.