textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added mention for precipitation chances mid-week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread precipitation is expected this evening into Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected this week. Next chance for rain will arrive mid-week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A low pressure system will move through the area later tonight into Monday. The low will bring showers and embedded thunderstorms tonight, and some additional convection is possible on Monday.

Main focus for possible severe weather this evening has been across southeast Indiana, southwest Ohio and northern Kentucky. This area has been near an instability gradient/boundary. North of this area has not been conducive for sustained thunderstorms/severe potential. This same area could also see heavy rainfall, and therefore there exists a localized flash flood risk as well due to heavy rainfall in a short period of time. As the night progresses, the risk may focus more into northern Kentucky.

The low pressure center will still be slowly tracking through our fa on Monday. This will initiate some isolated showers during the daytime, especially along the I-70 corridor near the center of the low. The cold front will still be in our far southeastern counties during the late morning and early afternoon hours, which could initiate some convection in portions of north-central KY and southern OH during this timeframe. Given the continued favorable wind shear, cannot rule out a strong to severe storm tomorrow before the front pushes east.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Normal high temperatures for this time of the year are generally around 85 degrees. For the majority of this upcoming week, daytime highs are expected to remain below this value. In fact, several locations will only observe daytime highs in the mid to upper 70s through mid-week, but a slight warming trend ensues through the end of the work week, brining highs back into the 80s.

There is a chance for showers/storms Wednesday night into Thursday as a shortwave ripples through the Midwest region. Still early to get into all the details, but this will be the next best chance for pcpn after the system moves through tonight into Monday.

AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms over southern Indiana will progress eastward through the evening and overnight hours. Expect all terminals to see a period of rain, with thunderstorms expected to first impact KCVG/KLUK by 02Z-03Z, where there could also be strong gusty winds. Confidence in thunderstorm impacts is lower further north and east, especially toward the Columbus terminals later in the evening.

After the main batch of thunderstorms moves through, expect ceilings to lower to at least MVFR across all terminals late tonight, with the potential for a period of IFR Monday morning. Even if IFR doesn't occur, much of Monday looks to hold onto MVFR ceilings. Also expect a wind shift from southwest to the west/northwest on Monday as low pressure moves to the east.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.