textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Dry conditions are expected today, with temperatures above normal. An upper level trough will move into the area for Wednesday and Thursday, bringing rain on Wednesday that will change to snow Wednesday afternoon and night. Much cooler air is then expected for Thursday and beyond, with another chance of snow on Friday and Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Clear to mostly clear skies are in place across the region this morning, with a dry air mass in place. Surface high pressure over the southeastern CONUS will gradually become more suppressed to the south, as deep troughing envelopes the Great Lakes by late in the day today. Initially forcing associated with this low will remain well north of the area, with perhaps just some mid and high clouds increasing through the day today. Highs will be well above normal, ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

With an increasing pressure gradient today, and a well-mixed boundary layer, wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected -- with the highest values in the northern half of the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY/

Troughing over the Great Lakes will continue to amplify tonight into Wednesday, and chances for precipitation for the ILN CWA will begin to increase. The first chance for precipitation will be on Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, associated with some upper forcing, associated with the right entrance region of the jet at the base of the trough. The boundary layer will still be somewhat warm on Tuesday night, with surface temperatures in the 40s. This activity should all be rain, mainly focused in the southeastern sections of the ILN CWA, with precipitation amounts of one or two tenths of an inch.

As this area of forcing moves east during the day on Wednesday, attention will turn to a cold front moving southeast into the area from the Great Lakes. This front will represent the leading edge of some much colder air, and as such, any additional precipitation will be snow. In fact, with the well-mixed boundary layer near and behind the cold front, some convective snow showers could develop. Could see some spotty accumulations after 18Z Wednesday, but these would probably be isolated and light -- overall projections for accumulations are not impressive (as mentioned in the Long Term section) but nonetheless, some impacts to the Wednesday evening commute could be possible if snow showers of any decent magnitude are able to develop. Will also probably see some 25-30 mph wind gusts behind the front.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

H5 vort lobe ejects through the upper Ohio Valley Wednesday night, which will be the primary driver for accumulating snow potential. Overall, models and ensembles have shown a lighter QPF footprint overnight and thus have reduced snow totals to generally less than an inch for the majority of our CWA. Probabilities of greater than an inch are now pretty low from the NBM, WPC, and the GFS/Euro ensembles. The lack of deep saturation in the DGZ will be another limiting factor with snow amounts. However, SLR's will be right around 20:1, so it wouldn't take much QPF to provide some rapid accumulations of snowfall.

Snow may linger into the early part of Thursday, although accumulating snow seems unlikely by daybreak. Arctic air mass will begin to settle in on Thursday, resulting in a notable drop in temperatures with highs only reaching the middle to upper 20s.

The synoptic flow pattern becomes a bit more chaotic as we progress through the day Friday and into the weekend. In general, it does appear that a longwave H5 trough will remain positioned over the majority of the eastern CONUS, which will certainly keep frigid temperatures in place. The uncertainty primarily lies with the series of shortwaves embedded within the longwave trough. It does appear that multiple shortwaves will propagate through our fa Friday and Saturday, resulting in more chances for accumulating snowfall. Details on amounts still a bit murky, but models/ensembles seem to favor higher totals with the Friday/Saturday system compared to the mid-week system.

Temperatures do increase on Friday (although likely remain just below seasonal normals) before falling through the weekend. Lows in the single digits will be possible Saturday, Sunday and Monday nights, with wind chills near or perhaps even below zero degrees.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the day today. There will be a gradual increase in high and mid level clouds. Winds today will remain out of the SSW, with some gusts to the 25-30 knot range this afternoon. Winds will diminish somewhat in the evening, but some 15-20 knot gusts will still be possible. LLWS is also possible from late afternoon into the overnight hours, and confidence has increased enough to include this in the TAFs for a period of time.

Later overnight into early Wednesday morning, MVFR ceilings and possibly MVFR visibilities will develop. There may also be some rain, but this will be light and patchy, and has not yet been included in the TAFs.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions expected Wednesday through Thursday, with some snow possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning as well. MVFR to IFR conditions with snow will be possible again from Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.