textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes from the previous forecast. Adjusted snow today into Monday a little higher toward the WPC solution.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Snow potential into early Monday. Below normal temperatures late weekend into early next week.

2)Next chance for rain and snow arrives middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Mid level shortwave trof to dig southeast from the Mid MS Valley resulting in the development of a sharp low. Broad scale ascent to develop as this system develops over the area. As a result a broad area of light snow will move into the area by daybreak.

As the mid level trof and vort-max pivots through the area this afternoon, the potential for more enhanced snow showers will occur. Forecast soundings continue to indicate steep low-level lapse rates with saturation into the DGZ. The pressure gradient tightens as low pressure deepens off the East Coast, which will enhance winds this afternoon and into the evening hours. Have increased winds over NBM solution with gusts of 30-35 mph likely.

Have continued to use WPC QPF with the NBM too low across the southwest half of the area. Snowfall amounts remain similar to previous shifts with totals thru Monday morning ranging from 2 inches or locally more over central Ohio to to less than an inch southwest of Cincinnati. Will continue to mention this threat in the HWO product and issue an SPS.

Thee coldest period of temperatures will be from Monday night into Tuesday morning. Low temperatures are expect to range from the mid teens north to around 20 south. Below normal temperatures continue through the day on Tuesday. A warming trend is develops Wednesday ahead of the next system.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Model solutions continue to track deepening low pressure from the Central Plains Wednesday into the Ohio Valley Thursday. The current consensus is that the low pressure will track far enough north that the majority of the area will see rain. If enough cold air is present, the northern third of the local area may see a chance for mixed rain and snow. Moisture will increase with PWATS of 200-300 percent of normal. The system is progressive with ensembles showing probabilities of rainfall exceeding 0.75 inches of 30 to 40 percent across the south/southeast counties.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR ceilings continue to develop across all TAF sites. Snow showers will overspread the TAF sites from the northwest early this morning. Generally expect MVFR ceilings and visibilities in snow showers thru the morning into the afternoon. The potential exists for some enhanced snow showers this afternoon into this evening with IFR visibilities and isolated IFR ceilings as well. The best threat for these lower conditions looks to be across the northern TAF sites.

Winds will increase and become gusty through the day. Wind gusts will start out around 20 knots this morning and then increase to 25 to 30 kts this afternoon into tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible into Monday with snow showers. MVFR conditions are also possible Wednesday and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.