textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for showers and thunderstorms returns late tonight and continues through the weekend.

2) Increasing heat and humidity next week with continued chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Convection that develops in the upper midwest tonight will dive southeast, weakening as it approaches the region towards daybreak Saturday. These remnants, which will probably have little to no thunder at that stage, will pass across northern counties Saturday morning. How extensive that will be is in question which may affect convective development later in the day.

There will be recovery in the afternoon with most guidance suggesting CAPE increasing to over 1000 J/kg with more ambitious guidance in the 1500 J/kg range. It looks like there will be a mid level impulse moving across the lower Great Lakes late in the day which should help enhance bulk shear, but to what degree is in question. A majority of the guidance, including the HREF, favors areas near and north of I-70. But there are some convective allowing models as well as the REFS which are a bit further south, from I-70 to north of the Ohio River. Conditions will be sufficient for some strong to severe storms with damaging wind the primary threat. Cannot rule out isolated large hail or even a tornado.

Storms will wane later in the evening, although some activity could linger through the night. Renewed convection will occur on Sunday with daytime destabilization. A weak boundary is expected to have sagged into the area and there will be a mid level shear axis arcing across the region through a building ridge. Bulk shear is forecast to be weak, so threats beyond lightning seem minimal.

KEY MESSAGE 2) There will be a broad axis of mid level ridging extending from the lower Mississippi Valley into eastern Canada for much of the week. This will allow for temperatures and dew points to increase as the week progresses. However, it will be a dirty ridge with weaknesses or minor disturbances passing around and through it. Thus there will be the potential for primarily diurnal convection during this time frame. Details of which days will have the better chance or coverage are difficult to ascertain beyond Monday when the most prominent disturbance lifts from the mid Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR will prevail. There will be scattered cumulus around through the day. In addition, southerly winds will increase with some gusts at or above 20 kt. Cumulus and winds will diminish towards 00Z. Mid clouds will spread across the region and gradually lower late in the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Saturday through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.