textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will lift across the area this morning quickly followed by a cold front late this afternoon into the evening. A strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night. Well above normal temperatures will then become below normal for next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

A warm front will lift across the region this morning. Light rain will develop out ahead of this. In addition, fog will occur near the frontal boundary. A transient area of visibility approaching 1 mile is likely to work across the region.

In the warm sector, temperatures will be able to jump into the upper 50s to mid 60s, even with persistent cloud cover. Some minor wind gusts may also occur. Low pressure tracking along the southern Michigan border will bring a cold front through the area later this afternoon. More rain will develop ahead of the front with greater coverage across eastern counties.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/

Ridge of surface high pressure will move across the area during the period. Clouds will be stubborn. There may be some breaks on Saturday afternoon, although it appears that even if lower clouds decrease, thicker high clouds will already be spreading into the area. Temperatures will not be quite as warm as the previous few days but still be well above normal.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mid level ridge axis will pass east of the area at the beginning of the period. Vigorous northern stream short wave will phase with southern stream energy as these features move across the country. There is broad agreement in that this will develop into a closed low tracking across the Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday, although how this comes together has a fair amount of spread.

As the associated surface low moves east, it will cause a warm front to lift across the forecast area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. There may be some rain along the boundary. Low level jet will transport a very moist airmass into the region (precipitable water greater than 90th percentile compared to climatology). Mixing will likely be limited in the warm sector, but even with considerable cloud cover, temperatures may approach record warmth.

Cluster analysis shows that a majority of solutions in the ensemble envelope (65 percent) bring the cold front through the region Sunday evening with most other solutions moving through later that night. Showers will be widespread with this system with rainfall of 0.5 to 1 inch a good possibility.

In the wake of the front it will turn sharply colder. Even after the initial drop, readings will likely only become nearly steady or even continue to slowly fall through Monday. Winds will become gusty with good mixing in cold air advection and a tighter pressure gradient.

Northwest flow will be established through the rest of the period. A short wave will pass north of the region on Wednesday which could cause the tail end of a secondary boundary to brush by. High confidence that below normal temperatures will prevail.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings will lower to IFR as a warm front lifts north across the region. Some light rain may occur ahead of this, but this is unlikely to cause any visibility restrictions. However, for a few hours right around when the front passes, visibilities will drop to at least IFR and most places will have ceilings lower to LIFR. There is medium confidence in this occurring with higher confidence that these lower conditions will be transient.

After the front moves through, IFR ceilings will likely persist. Winds will veer to the southwest with some gusts around 20 kt. Additional light rain will develop ahead of a cold front that will move across the terminals after 21Z. Winds will veer again with frontal passage, eventually becoming northwest. Ceilings will remain, although there is quite a bit of uncertainty at what level. TAFs have brought conditions up to MVFR, but it is quite possible that IFR could continue.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings will continue into Saturday. There may be a break in ceilings later Saturday into Saturday night. But MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to return Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible Sunday night and Monday. MVFR ceilings could linger into Tuesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.