textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Trending towards not quite so warm for the latter part of the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today. More showers and storms will move across the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A weak front stretching across northern Indiana and Ohio will sag into the forecast area today. Plenty of moisture in place to allow for the development of scattered showers and storms in a west northwest-east southeast oriented zone across the middle of the forecast area during peak diurnal heating. Precipitable water could be close to 1.7 inches near this boundary, so locally heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

Short wave in the mid Mississippi Valley to start on Monday will slowly move northeast on Monday and then turn eastward Monday night and Tuesday, moving east of the region by Tuesday evening. Precipitable water is forecast to increase to 1.8 to 2 inches and warm cloud depth will be 3.5 to 4 km. This will make for efficient warm rain processes. Showers and storms will develop into western counties on Monday afternoon. This activity should decrease Monday night but then become more widespread on Tuesday. This creates the potential for locally heavy rainfall. Moisture transport is weak and convection may just be progressive enough to avoid substantial issues, but there still could be isolated flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Expansive mid level ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley will extend northeast into the region on Wednesday. An increasing number of members in the guidance suite are suppressing this ridge later in the week as a progressive broad trough tracks across Canada and the northern tier of the US. This would lead to the Ohio Valley being on the southern end of the westerlies by the end of the week.

It will still get very warm Wednesday into Thursday with readings potentially getting into the upper 80s, but 90 might be a bit of a reach. With this change in the pattern, temperatures will trend towards not quite as warm, although still above normal, for late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A weak front will slowly move south across the area. With daytime heating, isolated to scattered showers will occur south of the front. This activity could bring temporary MVFR conditions to all but the Columbus terminals for a brief time. Otherwise, VFR is forecast. There is some potential for visibility restrictions at KLUK late if clouds scatter out, but probability is still low enough to exclude for now.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Monday through Thursday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Monday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.