textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased wind gusts this afternoon and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Very breezy conditions are expected on Tuesday, particularly during the afternoon. Gusts of 40 to 45 MPH are possible along and north of the I-71 corridor. Secure loose outdoors items.

2) A warmer and more active weather pattern will develop Tuesday and continue through most of the week, with several rounds of showers and storms expected from midweek into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Westerly flow aloft with weak isentropic lift leading to the potential for a sprinkle or brief rain shower over the southeast this aftn and then overnight across northeast parts of the FA.

Zonal mid level flow Tuesday as a weak short wave pivots east through the Great Lakes, with a surface low tracking east along a frontal boundary during the afternoon. ILN/s area will be south of the frontal boundary in the warm sector, with a tight pressure gradient developing. This will lead to very breezy conditions with diurnal mixing Tuesday afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest that mixing will support 30-35kt winds, with the highest gusts across the northern half of ILN/s FA. The setup continues to look to be below 40 kt advisory level. Have continued to message these gusty winds in the HWO product.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

An active weather pattern will develop by midweek and beyond as persistent southwest flow aloft becomes established across the Ohio Valley. Increased moisture arrives Tuesday night into Wednesday as a weak surface low tracks east across the Great Lakes during the afternoon and a cold front sags into the ILN FA late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorms will increase across the far northern FA late Tuesday evening, with a weakening trend expected as this activity moves southeast overnight.

As short wave energy digs southeast into the Central Plains Wednesday night - heights rise over the Ohio Valley with the front pivoting back to the north. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain possible with this frontal boundary.

The short wave ejects northeast thru the Mid MS Valley and then the Great Lakes Thursday night into early Friday. Expect shower and thunderstorms to increase Thursday night into early Friday.

A stronger system will impact the region Saturday into Saturday night before drier conditions return by Sunday after the front finally sweeps east of the area. At this time, it looks like the heaviest axis of rain remains north and west of ILN/s area with a general 1-2 inch rainfall across the northwest from late Tuesday through this weekend .

As the weather undergoes a pattern change, above normal temps are likely midweek and beyond, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for most of the week from Tuesday onward. Some lower 80s are possible Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the period. A low level jet will develop again tonight. Overall, the gustiness will decrease at the surface at this time. However, can't rule out a gust or two mixing down... perhaps in the 20-25 knot range.

By 13-14Z Wednesday, expecting the LLWS to dissipate and gusty winds to increase again at the surface. The gusts are likely to reach above 30 knots during the afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Friday. MVFR conditions are possible at times Wednesday through Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.