textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant change to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High confidence of extreme heat through Friday.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase over the holiday weekend, while heat and humidity continues.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Mid-level high continues to persist over the Ohio Valley today. The high will begin to weaken Friday into Saturday, but with little change in air mass, have continued with the current heat headlines through Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) As the ridge weakens, it is possible a thunderstorm complex could make its way into our northern and western counties late Friday afternoon into the evening. With strong instability and model DCAPE near 1,600 J/kg (based on 12Z HRRR), downburst damaging winds are the primary threat. By Saturday, residual boundaries from late Friday convection could provide enough focus for additional storms to develop. Most guidance shows an increase in coverage. For this reason, have opted to keep heat headlines ending Friday evening for now. Will monitor updated guidance moving forward and adjust as needed. Either way, most areas are likely to be hot and humid through July Fourth, so those planning outdoor activities should continue to plan for the heat.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. There will be the potential for some fog overnight which could lead to some reduced vsbys at KCVG, KLUK, KILN, and KLCK. Otherwise have VFR conditions in the TAF sites. Cu will dissipate this evening. Additional cu are expected for Friday. There will be the potential for some pop up thunderstorms on Friday, however confidence is too low to included in the TAFs except for a prob30 toward the end of the longer KCVG TAF. Winds will generally be light and around 10 knots or less through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible at times Friday through Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night for OHZ042-043-051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078. KY...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for KYZ089>100. Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night for KYZ091>093. IN...Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT Friday for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Sunday night for INZ074.