textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A cold front moving through the area will bringing windy conditions and a chance for rain. Another weather system will provide rain on Saturday, with much cooler weather expected for Sunday and beyond. As colder air filters into the region rain showers will transition to a chance of snow showers Saturday night and Sunday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/

Winds below advisory criteria will continue to diminish as high pressure builds into the area. Therefore, the advisory has been allowed to expire.

Previous... Broad mid level trof across the nations mid section. An initial shortwave and deep surface will eject from the Great Lakes into southern Canada this evening. A southward trailing surface cold front to sweep east thru ILN/s FA this afternoon.

Cold advection develops with wind gusts of 35-45 mph expected, with the strongest values north of the I-70 corridor. The strongest winds should only last a few hours before the pressure gradient begins to relax and winds diminish quickly by late afternoon - with high pressure temporarily building in. Cold advection will continue behind the front tonight, with lows from the mid 30s north to the mid 40s south by Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Mid level shortwave to pivot northeast into the Great Lakes ahead of developing low dropping into the Upper MS Valley. Rain will spread into the region from south to north on Saturday. Precipitation amounts will be light with QPF of 1 to 2 tenths, as the widespread rain shifts quickly to the north late in the day. On the warm side of the system - highs on Saturday range from the mid 40s northwest to the mid 50s southeast.

Focus shifts to deepening mid level low that settles into the Great Lakes Saturday night. Impressive vort associated with trof to pivot thru the area later Saturday night into Sunday. This presents a good signal for the development of snow showers - especially across the northwest where favorable flow off the lakes will exist. Have bumped up pops over NBM with light accumulation less than a half inch. Low to range from the lower 20s northwest to the upper 20s southeast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mid/upper level trough axis will pivot across our area Sunday morning before shifting off to our east through the afternoon. With cyclonic low level flow/low level CAA, expect to see at least scattered snow showers continuing through Sunday morning, especially across our north. Snow squall parameters also look fairly favorable, so some localized light accumulations will be possible. The snow shower activity will then taper off from the west heading into Sunday afternoon as the better forcing moves out. Temperatures will be much colder with daytime highs only in the lower 30s.

Surface high pressure will build into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valley Sunday night into Monday before moving east through Tuesday. This will provide for dry conditions across our area and lead to a warming trend with highs by Tuesday back to above normal readings.

Another mid level short wave will drop down across the Great Lakes Tuesday night and help carve out a deeper trough across the eastern CONUS through the end of the week. An associated cold front will usher in a colder airmass through the second half of the week with a return to below normal temperatures by Thursday and Friday.

Showers will overspread the region Tuesday night and then continue through Wednesday before tapering off Wednesday night. Pcpn will start off as rain but begin to mix with/transition over to snow Wednesday into Wednesday night as the cooler air moves in. With the upper levels trough overhead, it will be tough to rule out some lower end chances for snow showers Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A MVFR deck is in place across half of the region at the time of this writing, with southern sites (ILN CVG LUK) remaining VFR for the time being. This will change during the overnight hours as MVFR clouds will overspread the entire region ahead of another approaching weather system. Clouds eventually drop to IFR by Saturday morning as rain overspreads; VSBYs drop to MVFR with rainfall.

Rain showers persist through much of the day Saturday, tapering off by Saturday evening. CIGs and VSBYs quickly improve.

Winds tonight begin out of the northwest, becoming northeasterly during the overnight, remaining less than 10 knots. By Saturday morning, winds will have shifted to be out of the south, around 10 knots or less as rainfall arrives. As the system departs Saturday afternoon, winds become westerly, around 12-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots possible Saturday late afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings persist late Saturday night into Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.