textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong storm system will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.

2) Low pressure will move through the Great Lakes during end of the week bringing the next chance of precipitation to the area, along with a period of gusty winds.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A strong storm system will move through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing the potential for severe weather, flooding, and gusty winds.

Tuesday night severe threat: Confidence remains high that thunderstorms that had formed northwest of the area during the evening hours will gradually move eastward into northwest Ohio during the overnight. There will be some chance for this upscaled thunderstorm complex to shift southeastward into portions of western and central Ohio, but the organization should have decreased enough to limit severe potential. Any tornado threat would exist with this feature and not the elevated convection discussed next.

Additionally, a strong LLJ forming through the overnight hours will aid in the development of elevated thunderstorms with the most likely hazard being hail. Given the strong LLJ, the strongest storms may be capable of assisting these winds down to the surface.

Wednesday severe threat: By the morning, scattered thunderstorms and remnant clusters of rain are likely ongoing over the area with the front still located in northwest Ohio and central Indiana. Through the morning the front will work southeastward, with renewed thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the front. Depending on the amount of cloud cover, enough instability may form to support severe thunderstorms along and southeast of I-71. All hazards would be possible with these storms throughout the afternoon.

As the cold front moves through during the afternoon, enough instability should allow for thunderstorm develop with the front, even if instability is a bit lower. The enhancement of lift with the front would support thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

Wind threat: Ahead of the front, the strong LLJ will be able to mix downward to the surface more effectively during the late morning and afternoon hours, supporting a period of wind gusts between 35 and 40 mph. Some guidance suggests that advisory level wind gusts are possible.

Heavy rain/flooding: Locations that see thunderstorms Tuesday night and again on Wednesday will have the best chance of seeing locally higher rainfall amounts that would support renewed flooding potential. Given the southeast push with the cold front Wednesday afternoon, there will likely not be enough residence time with the thunderstorms to warrant an area wide flood watch.

2) Low pressure moving through the Great Lakes during end of the week brings the next chance of precipitation to the area, along with a period of gusty winds.

Another strong, compact low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes around the Friday timeframe. Although some mixed precipitation is possible, the main focus on Friday will likely be the stronger winds in the tight pressure gradient around the low.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Strengthening southwest low level flow will help advect some increasing low level moisture into the region through the overnight hours with MVFR cigs overspreading the TAF sites. Have delayed the onset slightly based on latest satellite observations. Slight adjustments in the potential for IFR between 10-16Z today. MVFR/IFR cigs then lift into VFR conditions through the afternoon in continued low level southwest flow.

For the CVG TAF, have reintroduced MVFR CIGs with southwesterly flow persisting, and also added the potential for showers. Thunderstorms are possible, but will hold off mention until confidence is higher.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings possible through Thursday morning. Wind gusts above 30 kt possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday evening. Wind gusts above 40 kt possible Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.