textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased precipitation chances today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers will linger today as a cold front moves to the southeast. A cooler airmass will settle into the region Thursday offering a temporary dry periods

2) Periods of rain with embedded thunderstorms are expected Friday with the potential for heavy rain. Additional chances for precipitation through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A slow moving surface cold front over northwest Ohio will slip south to the Ohio River and stall out this morning. Mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Anomalously high moisture is over the region with ILN/s 00Z sounding recording a PWAT of 1.5 inches. This breaks the daily record of 1.48 for 5/20 00Z soundings.

Expect fairly widespread shower activity to linger into the day today and with the potential for some weak instability across the area (especially the southeast) some embedded thunderstorms will be possible into this afternoon. Any lingering pcpn across our area looks to taper off heading into this evening as the shortwave exits the area. With the PWAT plume of 1.5 to 1.6 inches across the area - the potential exists for an additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall in local swaths with the heaviest across the south. This could lead to a lower end flooding threat, especially for areas across our Indiana counties, where 1 to locally 2 inches of rain fell with Monday's event.

A cooler airmass and a temporary dry period will be observed on Thursday with afternoon highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Additional rounds of mid level energy will lift northeast through the Ohio Valley Friday into the weekend. A southerly low level jet of 35-40 KTS will transport moisture back into the area with PWATs fcst to increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches. This will lead to widespread showers and a chance for thunderstorms. A signal for heavy rain exists and additional rainfall on Friday and Friday night of 1-2 inches is possible with the potential for locally 3+ inches. This potential flood threat will have to monitored as we get closer to the event..

In continued moist southwest flow, temperatures will moderate warmer through the weekend. The potential will exist for additional chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend but this will be at least somewhat dependent on the timing and placement of the mid level energy.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A slow moving surface cold front will stall out south of the Ohio River this morning. The mid and upper level flow remains southwesterly with a secondary mid level short wave pivoting northeast thru the Ohio Valley today. This will cause a weak surface wave to ripple along the front and moisture to override it. Several waves of additional showers and storms are expected to impact the TAFs until the shortwave exits the area this evening.

CIGs are expected to quickly lower to MVFR and then IFR with the passage of the front. Probabilities continue to remain high from guidance to warrant IFR CIGs through majority of daytime hours and into this evening. CIGs may slowly improve to MVFR this evening with the potential for improvement to VFR late tonight across the northern TAF sites. OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.