textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms will move across the region this afternoon into the evening with more showers and storms Tuesday. And there will be a continued chance late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible through this period.

2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Narrow ridge over the region to shift east as a shortwave in the Mid MS Valley pushes slowly northeast today. A very moist environment will develop with PWAT values increasing above 2 inches. Also, a warm cloud depth will be around 4 km which suggests very efficient warm rain processes will be in play.

CAM solutions to continue to suggest that bands of showers and thunderstorms arcing northwest to southeast will develop and move into the area this afternoon thru early evening. Guidance continues to suggest that the potential for locally heavy rain will exist. There is some uncertainty on location but the most favored region looks to be across the southwest.

The shortwave will start moving east late tonight and cross the area during the day Tuesday. Anomalously high PWATs and warm cloud depths will persist on Tuesday. The timing of the shortwave looks to push the best coverage of storms east of the area during the afternoon. Also, impulse being progressive may lessen the potential for focused heavy rain in any one location. Given the environment will still need to maintain a heightened awareness for potential localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

In the wake of any potential early convection, mid level heights will rise on Wednesday. Trends continue to be less amplified in the ridge but temperatures in the mid to upper 80s look likely on Wednesday and Thursday. With the dew point in the lower to mid 70s, max heat indices are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s.

A vigorous trough working its way across the northern part of the country will suppress the mid level ridge will a surface cold front pushing through the region on Friday. So temperatures will be not quite as warm but still above normal late in the week into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Higher moisture advecting into the west/southwest on the backside of a narrow mid level ridge which is shifting to the east. Expect several bands of showers and thunderstorms to develop and move across the TAF sites thru the afternoon into early evening. Have prob30 mention at all TAF sites during the window of greatest potential. MVFR ceilings will spread across the area - reaching the central Ohio TAF sites last.

Expect MVFR clouds to persist overnight but there is a chance that a period of VFR is observed prior to dropping back down to MVFR overnight. Additional shower and thunderstorm development is expected Tuesday.

OUTLOOK... MVFR ceilings are likely Tuesday with IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities possible in storms. MVFR ceilings and visibilities may linger through Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday through Friday, with the greater potential in the afternoon and evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.