textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued scattered light snow showers and flurries into the overnight hours before tapering off.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday.

2)Next chance for widespread precipitation impacts the area for mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow off the Great Lakes was keeping moisture over the area tonight. The top of the moist cloud layer coincides with the DGZ which is helping to squeeze out scattered flurries and light snow showers. As a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley the light snow showers and flurries will end from west to east. Decreasing clouds and lighter winds will allow for temperatures to drop into the upper teens to around 20 by by sunrise. Cold conditions will hold through today as the ridge shifts just to the east of the area by afternoon. Expect highs in the mid/upper 30s north to the lower 40s south of the Ohio River. Winds back to the southwest and increase to 15 to 20 mph this afternoon. The combinations of wind and temperatures will result in wind chill readings in the teems this morning and in the 20s this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Focus on an impulse that drops from the Central Plains Wednesday night across the Ohio and TN Valleys Thursday. Favorable isentropic lift develops into the region Wednesday night ahead of the main system and continues into Wednesday. Model solutions continue to support a more southern track but show good spread and therefore uncertainty in the details. This spread affects the northern extent of the precipitation and vertical temperature profiles, and therefore affects precipitation type and amounts.

Deterministic ECMWF solution continues to be the farthest south but it's ensemble suite yields some credence to a more northern solution. The ECMWF would suggest less than an inch of snow, while its AI solutions leans toward the potential of 1-2 inches. GFS ensemble also yields the potential for 1 to 2 inches of snow. WPC guidance yields 1 to 2 inches along and north of the I-70 corridor with lessor amounts south. Will continue to mention this light snow impact in the HWO and will expand the area a little south due to uncertainty.

Can not rule out the possibility of freezing pcpn but due to uncertainty, have limited the weather to rain and snow and will continue to monitor trends on freezing precipitation potential.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Northwest flow off the Great Lakes was keeping moisture over the area tonight. The top of the moist cloud layer coincides with the DGZ which is helping to squeeze out scattered flurries and light snow showers. VFR ceilings will drop to MVFR at times in the snow showers prior to tapering off from west to east early this morning.

As a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the Ohio Valley the low clouds will decrease with just some higher clouds spilling in from the northwest.

Winds will back southwesterly and increase with gusts of 20 to 25 kts later this aftn and this evening. Mid and high level clouds increase as we head into this evening as a system moves thru the Great Lakes. Moisture will be limited but can not rule out a rain or snow shower between 06Z and 12Z overnight as a period of isentropic lift develops ahead of the Great Lakes system.

As low level jet increases and pivots into the area a period of LLWS will be possible tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.