textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Southerly flow will develop on the back side of high pressure offering dry conditions and a warming trend through early this week. A brief chance for rain for Tuesday before more widespread rain chances return late Thursday into Friday. Much above normal temperatures are on tap for the second half of the week, with colder air expected to filter back into the region next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/

Northwest flow aloft becomes more westerly with weak, progressive shortwave tracking thru the Great Lakes tonight. Surface high pressure will build off to the east, allowing for southwest return flow to develop. A period of mid and high level clouds associated with the mid level shortwave to thin out and shift east after midnight. Temperatures tonight will drop to lows from the lower 20s northeast to the upper 20s southwest.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Southwest low level flow on the backside of retreating high pressure will lead to the initiation of a warmup. Expect good sunshine with only some high level thin clouds spilling into the area Monday. Highs temperatures to top out from the lower 40s north to the lower 50s south.

Mid and high level clouds thicken up Monday night ahead of next mid level shortwave. Milder lows range from the lower 30s north to the lower 40s south.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Above average temperatures will be in place throughout the working week as we head into the extended period. Temperatures are forecast to rise well above climatological normals (normals for this time of year ~ max T around 40 degrees, min T around 25 degrees), rising to the mid/upper 50s each day.

The pattern also turns a bit more active with a couple of weather disturbances impacting the region. The fist arrives Tuesday as a shortwave and associated deepening surface low. The deepest moisture associated with this system remains well north of our area, which is where the bulk of the precipitation will fall. However, as a weak trailing cold front moves across the ILN CWA, we may see some light rain showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday before the region dries out again for Wednesday daytime hours.

Our attention then turns to the end of the work week, when a much more amplified/ deeper trough will begin to impact our area. Details on how exactly the associated surface feature(s) will progress are still a bit unclear. However,there does seem to be good consensus that a deep plume of moisture and warmth will be advected into the Ohio Valley sometime during the Thursday/Friday timeframe. Between Thursday through early Saturday, ECMWF, GFS, and GEFS ensembles all suggest mean QPF plumes around 1 inch near the Tri- State region and this early morning's WPC Day 5 ERO highlights the area in a Marginal risk.

Obviously, much remains to be determined with both spatial and temporal resolution and have low confidence since guidance hasn't been consistent run to run. Therefore, will not mention in the HWO just yet.

After the cold front pulls through the region, we're anticipating much cooler temperatures for the end of the weekend as strong cold air advection moves across the Ohio Valley.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect generally VFR conditions through the TAF period. Models are trying to generate some lower clouds tomorrow and into tomorrow evening, however with southerly flow it is likely overdone and therefore kept VFR conditions through the TAF period at this time. There will also be some mid and high clouds around. Winds will pick up for the daytime hours on Monday with wind gusts around 20 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs will be possible Monday night into Tuesday and Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Vsbys will also have the potential to be reduced Monday night and Tuesday night. Gusty winds in excess of 35 knots will be possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.