textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread precipitation is expected Sunday afternoon into Monday, with a chance of heavy rain and a few strong storms.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

An upper level shortwave trough and surface low move through the Ohio Valley and lower Great Lakes on Sunday night into Monday morning bringing the chance for locally heavy rain and a marginal risk for severe weather.

The larger concern with this system continues to be the potential for flooding especially across areas that have already received large amounts of rainfall from the system earlier this week. Anomalously high PWATs (1.5+ inches) advect into the Ohio Valley ahead of the low by Sunday evening. The quickly moistening environment and increasing ascent along a warm front lifting into the area will likely support widespread rainfall developing Sunday evening and Sunday night. Additionally, a strong nocturnal LLJ moves into the west overnight along with increasing instability (MUCAPE) which could enhanced rainfall rates. Swaths of 1-2 inches of rain are likely to occur with locally higher amounts possible.

A marginal risk for severe weather exists ahead of the low on Sunday evening and Sunday night. Shear profiles become favorable, however and boundary layer based instability is very limited. Thus, the severe risk is conditional on sufficient MLCAPE developing.

The showers and storms eventually exit to the east on Monday when the low moves out of the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Temperatures are likely to remain below average through much of next week as high pressure builds in from the north. The next chance for precipitation is on Thursday when an upper level shortwave trough is forecast to move through the region.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

River valley fog expected to develop tonight. KLUK has best chance for vsby reductions due to BR. Cannot rule out some reductions at KCVG and perhaps KILN.

Winds remain light and variable through tonight and much of the day Sunday. Winds will begin to increase near 00z Monday, with increasing chances for showers and storms Sunday evening into the overnight, which is denoted in the extended KCVG taf.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday evening through Monday. MVFR conditions are possible on Sunday night and Monday as well.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.