textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A series of upper level disturbances will bring occasional showers to the Ohio Valley Thursday night through Saturday. Temperatures will remain well above normal with breezy conditions possible at times. A cold front will move through the region Saturday night, ushering in a much cooler airmass for the second half of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Surface high pressure centered over the Tennessee Valley early this afternoon will shift east across the upper Ohio Valley through tonight. As the low level flow continues to back and weak WAA develops, the lower clouds should continue to erode away from the southwest this afternoon into early evening, leaving mostly clear skies heading into tonight. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 30s.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

Mid level short wave energy will eject quickly out of the southern Plains through the day on Thursday and then lift up across the western Great Lakes through Thursday night. This will lead to a developing surface low over the central Plains that will shift northeast across the Great Lakes through Thursday night. Ahead of all of this, a weak warm front will lift northeast across our area during the day on Thursday. This will lead to an increase in mainly mid and high level clouds through the day. As the low levels begin to moisten up, suppose a few sprinkles or light rain showers may be possible late in the day, mainly across our northwest. In the WAA pattern, temperatures on Thursday will be well above normal with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A strengthening low level jet will shift east into our area Thursday night. This will lead to decent moisture advection up into our area through the night with PWs in excess of one inch working in from the west overnight. As a result, fairly widespread shower activity will develop into our west Thursday night, moving into our east late. As the pressure gradient tightens, southerly winds will increase Thursday night. Some wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range will be possible, with the highest winds expected across our northwest. The winds, clouds and continued WAA will keep temperatures mild, with lows Thursday night mostly in the 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Friday starts the forecast with rain, decreasing from the nw later in the day as a cold front passes se through the CWA. After a break in the late day/evening, the cold front will have been strung out south of the CWA and then lift nwd as a wmfnt. This brings a better shot of moderate rainfall primarily affecting se CWA early, then the rest of CWA through Sat evening. Albeit, the rest of the CWA will not likely see as moderate of a rainfall and have more areas that are hit-and-miss during the day and early evening. Any lingering light precip during the evening onward will be snow showers with light accumulations expected attm. These snow showers will persist through the day and evening but not be concentrated over any particular locale. As a sfc high builds to the s, drier wly wind behind this system could cut off any snow showers with the coming of evening versus later overnight.

The remainder of the forecast is dry with the exception of Wednesday where a surface low is progged to situate itself over nrn MI. Rain would be the primary ptype given currently look of mass fields.

Temps start mild and in the lower 60s Friday. Overnight lows aren't shabby either, running from the low 40s nw to lower 50s se. Saturday will see readings ranging from around 50 in the nw CWA to near 60 in the se - about a 15 deg drop from Fri. Then a cold front crosses east and temps tank beginning in the late day and moreso overnight. Lows should range from 25-30. Highs Sat could be off by quite a bit and are entirely dependent on the timing of the frontal passage. Sun and overnight have relatively uniform highs/lows given the airmass is being wind-driven. Highs 30-35 and lows by Mon morn near 22 deg across the board.

A weak rebound occurs Mon as high pressure to the s pushes in sw flow to our region, bringing highs of 35-40. Lows also recover some and nose into the upper 20s. Tue adds another 5 deg for highs (40-45). Overnight lows stay warm-sectored ahead of a developing low to the n and likely cold fropa on Wed. Overnight lows 30-35 will be followed by Wed highs slightly cooler, about 2-3 deg on either side of 40.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Most sites are now VFR but CMH and LCK both have a residual MVFR deck that is slowly moving out of the region. Quiet conditions arrive overnight, with light winds out of the south. There is a signal for some valley fog and perhaps some overland fog in spots near the Scioto River Valley. Have introduced this with TEMPO groups for a handful of TAF sites during the early morning hours on Thursday.

Thursday remains VFR for all sites. However, as the next weather system moves into the region, a shield of cirrus will move over the Ohio Valley on Thursday, lowering through the afternoon hours. Additionally, southeasterly winds will pick up to around 10-12 knots during the afternoon hours.

Looking at the longer CVG TAF, a strong jet will move over the Ohio Valley as we head into Thursday night, so have introduced LLWS into the extended TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday night through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.