textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure will provide mainly dry conditions through this weekend. Below normal temperatures will continue through the middle of next week. Although a stray shower cannot be ruled out south of the Ohio River early Sunday, the next chance for appreciable widespread rain will hold off until midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

With mainly clear skies and light winds across the OH Vly, ideal radiational cooling conditions are allowing temps to dip into the mid 30s already. Some freezing/subfreezing temps are expected by daybreak, particularly in central OH and the lower Scioto Vly into NE KY. Given latest short-term data and obs, the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory are well placed, with some rural/sheltered temps in the upper 20s likely by daybreak from central OH through NE KY.

Sfc high pressure drifts E of the local area through the daytime today, with NE LL flow becoming established. Flow aloft will gradually become a bit more zonal as a S/W pivots SE into the Great Lakes region with a more well-defined closed low meandering about the south-central plains. The S/W moving into the nrn OH Vly by tonight will provide a reinforcing shot of LL dry air, which will help shunt the higher PW air off to our S into the day Sunday. This should keep most, if not all, of the local area dry through at least Monday.

An influx of mid/high clouds is expected through today, which will keep highs generally in the upper 50s to around 60 degrees.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

Quiet conditions prevail through the short term period as well, even as a narrow axis of higher PW air and weak convergence promotes the development of some light SHRA, which may graze far srn parts of the ILN FA late tonight into Sunday morning. The latest guidance suggests that most, if not all, of the local area remains completely dry through Sunday, but suppose a stray SHRA or sprinkle cannot be ruled out in N KY late tonight through mid morning Sunday.

Otherwise, milder temps are on tap tonight as expansive clouds keep temps generally in the mid 40s in the Tri-State to the mid 30s in central OH. While some patchy rural frost cannot be ruled out early Sunday in central OH and the lower Scioto Valley, most spots will be frost-free tonight. Temps rebound to around 60 degrees area-wide on Sunday, with abundant sunshine near/N of the OH Rvr and some lingering clouds in N KY.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Surface high pressure shifts northeast of the Ohio Valley Sunday night giving way to an uncertain synoptic setup this coming week. As of now, it appears that a flattening upper level trough moves just south of Ohio Valley to start the work week. This leaves our area in between an amplifying ridge the north and weak troughing to the south. Low end rain chances exist in this setup, however the latest guidance suggest dry conditions may win out.

For the middle and end of the work week, uncertainty increases dramatically. This uncertainty is associated with how the next shortwave trough dropping out of the Northern Plains evolves. One cluster of medium range ensemble members has surface low forming south, but in the vicinity, of the Ohio Valley in response to the upper level trough. Another cluster of solutions progresses this trough further east and develops a coastal low. The sensible weather in our area will be very different depending on how the trough and subsequent surface low evolve. A low in the vicinity of the Ohio Valley would likely bring wet and breezy conditions. A low over the coast leaves the Ohio Valley dry. Currently, the solution spread is about 50/50 each way. Interaction between the mid latitude system and Melissa are likely driving a large part of this uncertainty.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The only exception is at KLUK where some river valley BR/FG will lead to IFR or lower VSBY in the several hours around daybreak.

Mid/high clouds will overspread the area through the daytime, with CIGs generally around 8-10kft by late day. Light NE flow goes more easterly during the day, but remains around 5kts or less.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-080>082-088. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for OHZ077>079. KY...Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059. Frost Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for INZ066-073>075-080.