textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High Wind Warning expanded a bit farther south.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Windy conditions will develop this morning and continue through the rest of the day. The highest gusts will occur mid morning through mid afternoon, especially near/north of I-70, where gusts to around 60 mph will be possible.

2) Breezy and warmer conditions will develop on Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms can be expected Sunday night with a few strong to severe storms possible. The precipitation will transition to a rain-snow mix Monday morning, with some snow showers lingering into Monday afternoon. A much colder airmass will settle into the area for Monday and Tuesday, with lows in the teens likely Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A deep low pressure system currently over Minnesota will track east across the Great Lakes through tonight. Ahead of this, a strong low level jet will develop into our area this morning and then shift off to the east through this afternoon. As the pressure gradient continues to tighten and we then get into some mixing through the day, south to southwest winds will increase through the morning hours and then continue into this afternoon. Desi-HREF is suggesting probabilities of wind gusts to 55 mph of 60 percent or greater across about the northern half of our area and this is backed up by momentum transfer techniques off of the forecast soundings. Have made some minor changes to headlines, expanding the High Wind Warning a bit farther south to include Clinton, Fayette, Pickaway and Fairfield Counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level short wave will move out of the Plains Sunday and then pivot up across the Great Lakes Monday into Monday night. This will allow for an associated deepening surface low over the mid Mississippi Valley on Sunday to lift up through the Great Lakes on Monday, while dragging a strong cold front southeast through the Ohio Valley. Good southerly flow ahead of this system will lead to much warmer temperatures on Sunday with afternoon highs in the low to possibly mid 70s.

Showers will develop as we head into Sunday evening. There remains some timing differences between the models, and as a result, some uncertainty on how much if any instability will be able to be pulled up into our area Sunday evening and into the overnight hours. Will continue with a chance of embedded thunder and we may end up with at least a lower end severe threat Sunday night depending on the timing/instability.

Good CAA will develop behind the front through the day on Monday, leading to falling temperatures on Monday and then much cooler temperatures heading into mid week. Lingering showers on Monday will mix with and change to snow through the day on Monday before ending.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A strong low level jet will be in place across our area this morning before shifting off to our east through this afternoon. This will lead to windy conditions today, with southwest winds gusting into the 40 to 50 knot range later this morning and continuing into the afternoon. LLWS and some light showers or sprinkles will also be possible early this morning. Winds will begin to decrease heading into this evening and through the overnight hours. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK... MVFR to IFR conditions will be possible Sunday night and Monday, along with gusty winds in excess of 35 knots.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-072. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ070-071-073-074- 077>082-088. KY...Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ089>100. IN...High Wind Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ050-058-059. Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for INZ066-073>075-080.