textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur today. More showers and storms will move across the region Monday afternoon into Tuesday with the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A weak front bisecting ILN's area from northwest to southeast will continue to sag south across the region today. Favorable moisture is in place with an axis of PWATs of 1.6-1.8 inches pooled along and south of the front. Expect moderate instability to develop this aftn with MLCAPE values of 1500-1750 J/KG. This will allow for the development of scattered showers and storms in a northwest-southeast oriented zone across the middle of the forecast area in the frontal zone. Shear is very low with effective shear of 10 kts or less. With a very moist environment the main impact today will be locally heavy rain.

Narrow mid level ridge axis to shift east of the area Monday with shortwave slowly tracking from the Mid MS Vly into the Western Great Lakes by Tuesday morning. This shortwave will then turn eastward Tuesday, moving east of the region by Tuesday evening. Moisture increases with PWATs forecast to increase to 1.8 to 2 inches and warm cloud depth will be 3.5km to 4km. As the favorable moisture returns showers and storms will develop into ILN/s western counties Monday afternoon. Convective activity should decrease Monday night but then become more widespread on Tuesday. The very moist airmass will offer a favorable environment for high rainfall rates and the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Expansive mid level ridge centered over the Lower MS Vly will extend northeast into the region on Wednesday. Model trends continue to indicate a solution that is more suppressed with this ridge later in the week with a progressive broad trough tracking east across southern Canada and the northern tier of the US. This will place the Ohio Valley on the southern end of the westerlies by the end of the week into next weekend.

Temperatures look to get very warm Wednesday into Thursday with readings potentially getting into the upper 80s. The change in the pattern will result in temperatures not quite as warm, although still above normal, with mid 80s for highs for late in the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Line of convection situated nw-se through ILN but missing remaining terminals will see little movement and not affect any but ILN for the next 1-2 hours. Coverage is already decreasing and showers/storms are quite short-lived and will continue to be on a downward trend. Overnight, a sct cu 4-6kft will be present with overtopping mid and/or high clouds. A light sly wind at CVG/LUK will remain on the southwest side of the boundary, while remaining terminals will be in more of a ne direction. All will be 6kt or less.

More showers and storms are in the offing for tomorrow with a similar setup. Sly wind will be 7-10kt and diurnally driven storms will fire with a more nnw-sse orientation. The line that is expected to contain this precip will be moving in a newd direction, and indicies supporting strong storms are just not there. The storms will be pushing against a weakening upper ridge that is exiting east through the day. OVC VFR cloud cover is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening in western CWA.

If KLUK had received precip today, I would be more inclined to include the threat of early morning valley fog. This seems less likely given this lack of moisture, as well as passing cloud cover through the night which will inhibit radiational cooling.

OUTLOOK...Convective showers/storms will be scattered about through Friday when a cold front finally changes the airmass over the region. These periods of precip will be enhanced by daytime heating and have a higher occurrence in the late day and early evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.