textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood Watch expanded into parts of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio

Lowered daytime temps/raised overnight lows a bit the next couple days.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue into Saturday, with the potential for locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Initial short wave lifting north across our area early this afternoon with widespread showers and a few embedded thunderstorms ongoing. This activity will continue through this evening before beginning to decrease in coverage from the south after midnight and through the early morning hours on Saturday. There is some uncertainty with how widespread some lingering showers and thunderstorms will be along the trailing trough axis behind the surface low lifting north across eastern Indiana as a secondary mid level short wave lifts up through the mid Ohio Valley. With some of the hi-res models suggesting some locally heavy rain with this feature, have opted to expand the Flood Watch farther north to include portions of southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio. Confidence is not super high with this but would rather err on the side of caution given the already moist antecedent conditions.

The severe threat looks pretty limited this afternoon/early evening due to the widespread rainfall. Suppose some very weak surface instabilities could sneak into our far south late this afternoon and if this were to happen, it would tough to rule out a few rotating storms across our southern tier of counties given the good low level shear.

The surface low will shift slowly northeast across northwest Ohio during the day on Saturday as it slowly weakens. Models continue to suggest some instability may develop through the afternoon across our east/southeast. Think this may be overdone a bit though as we may still have a fair amount of lingering cloud cover. Between this and the lack of deeper shear, the overall severe threat looks limited at best, but it will be tough to rule out some continued locally heavy rain with any stronger storms that develop. The best chance for this looks to be across our far eastern areas during the afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Widespread IFR ceilings persist through 0600z as a low pressure system lifts through the area. Persistent rain accompanies the lowered ceilings along with MVFR visibilities with brief IFR dropouts in the strongest showers. Isolated thunder may occur through the first six hours of the TAF period.

After 0600z, rain becomes a bit more scattered south of the warm that lifts north of the area. Ceilings are likely be slow to improve overnight remaining in the IFR category through much of the morning. MVFR ceilings are possible by Saturday afternoon when ceilings lift and scatter.

Easterly winds veer to the south through the overnight. LLWS may occur overnight as a low level jet moves through the area. Winds continue to veer to the southwest on Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings may linger into Sunday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ055-056-063>065-070>074- 077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch until 5 AM EDT Saturday for INZ066-073>075-080.