textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Southerly flow allows for a continued warming trend as the week progresses. Temperatures will rise back above normal on Thursday, but this will be accompanied by rain ahead of an approaching cold front. High pressure will bring dry weather Friday and cooler temperatures. The cool down will be brief with temperatures warming above normal for the weekend. A low chance of precipitation returns late in the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

A weakening mid level shortwave moves across the Great Lakes. This allows a weak front to drop into Ohio and loses its identity. This will have little or no impact on our sensible weather. Gusty southerly winds will let up today with the pressure gradient over the area weakens. Expect partly sunny skies and moderating temperatures. Highs from the upper 30s north to the mid 40s south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/

Southerly flow increases tonight with the pressure gradient increasing ahead of trof moving . A 50-55kt southerly low level jet will offer WAA and moisture advection. Clouds will increase from the west but pcpn is expected to hold off until later Thursday. Lows from the upper 20s east to the lower/middle 30s west look to be reached early with temperatures rising after midnight.

A strong mid level trough will move into the MS Valley Thursday, as a strong shortwave rotates thru its base. Low pressure will track across the northern Great Lakes with a southward trailing cold front moving into ILN/s western counties by evening. Rain will develop into the west by noon and overspread the region reaching the east by mid afternoon.

The tightening pressure gradient will allow for breezy conditions to develop within the WAA, which would be enhanced during the afternoon. Ensemble suggest that the best probs for 35 MPH or greater are highest across west central Ohio. Will continue to highlight these gusty winds in the HWO product. Warm temperatures will reach highs from the lower 50s northwest to the upper 50s southeast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/

Cold front will quickly shift off to the east Thursday night bringing an abrupt change to westerly winds and falling temperatures. An initial wind gust immediately behind the front could reach 35-40 mph. While the rain will end quickly, remnant moisture on the roadways may lead to a few slick spots on the road by the time the morning rush arrives Friday morning.

Gusty winds will be the main weather story Friday, especially in the morning, as the mid-level trough swings through our area. However, by afternoon, surface high pressure will begin to build into the region. In fact, the high will be exiting again by Friday night leading to warmer southerly flow on Saturday. The next frontal system will be somewhat moisture starved and will mainly be noticed due to the cooler temperatures returning again on Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Band of MVFR clouds will shift east early this morning with VFR conditions area wide. High and mid level clouds will stream across the area through the day. A southwesterly jet will move over the region offering a period of low level wind shear overnight which ends shortly after sunrise.

Gusty southwest winds at 10-15kts diminishes to 10 kts or less today and then backs to the southeast tonight.

OUTLOOK...Wind shear again possible overnight into Thursday. MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.