textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included a mention of showers/storms next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms continue today.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected through the work week. More rounds of showers and storms expected late this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Surface low continues to propagate eastward through Ohio today. Cold front associated with this surface low is draped near the I-71 corridor early this afternoon. Showers and storms will continue to initiate near the frontal boundary. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the cold front, with effective shear values near 30 kts. Storms will generally remain cellular with some multi-cell clusters developing as coverage in storms increase. Overall, the severe threat should remain fairly limited, but the environment does support the potential for some strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated damaging gust in these storms.

From a hydro perspective, PWATs still remain near 1.5-1.75" SE of I-71, indicating a very moist environment ahead of the front. However, flooding issues will likely be limited given that there should be enough storm motion to limit prolonged convection in one location. Any flooding issues would likely be a result of training thunderstorms should this occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 70s to mid 80s through the work week, which will generally remain below seasonal normals. However, we will begin to observe a warming trend next weekend.

More rounds of showers and storms can be expected later this week and perhaps continuing into the weekend. Global models and ensembles are picking up on a signal for pcpn on Thursday associated with a cold front. There are some indications that this boundary may stall out near the Ohio River, which would lead to repeated rounds of convection Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Cold front continuing to work its way through the area this afternoon. As of 18z, the boundary is laying out just SE of the I-71 corridor and will slowly push east. Terminals near and east of I-71 will continue to have a chance for showers and a stray storm this afternoon before the threat pushes east.

MVFR CIGs will improve back to VFR through the day, with VFR conditions expected the remainder of the taf period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday and Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ079-081-082-088. KY...Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ094>100. IN...None.