textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will offer a chance for rain and snow today and tonight. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue through the majority of next week, with multiple systems impacting the region during the mid to late week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

The ILN fa remains in a WAA regime today, resulting in a surge of relatively warmer air in the lower levels. This will alter the thermal profiles aloft and impact the p-type being observed where pcpn falls today.

Bufkit soundings continue to show the potential for patchy freezing drizzle early this morning. However, coverage will likely be very limited, and currently there aren't many obs west of our fa showing this weather type. Not anticipating many impacts if this does occur given the isolated nature of this potential. Locations farther south may observe drizzle as well, but freezing drizzle less likely down near the OH River as surface temps quickly warm up after sunrise.

As the column continues to saturate, snow potential will increase, mainly for counties along/north of I-70. Forcing remains quite weak with this system in our CWA however, which is keeping PoPs relatively low. Still maintaining that Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin counties have the best chance for some accumulating snowfall. Any snowfall that does occur for areas along/north of I-70 should have limited travel impacts given that pavement temps will be quite warm during the day. Thus, any snow accumulations will primarily be on grassy/elevated surfaces.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

Biggest uncertainty with this system will be how much pcpn lingers on the back end. Several CAMs continue to highlight pcpn lingering much longer now into the overnight hours and perhaps even into Monday morning. If this were to occur, rain would eventually transition to snow as thermal profiles cool given the CAA behind the front. Snow potential would be highest in southern OH/IN and northern KY, but there could be light snowfall as far north as I-70. Some accumulations are possible in our far southern counties, primarily along/south of the Ohio River. If this scenario where to play out, some snow could certainly stick to the roadways and impact the morning commute Monday, but in general, any impacts expected to be fairly minimal. Probabilities are extremely low for accumulations greater than 1" in our south, but a few tenths of an inch are not entirely out of the question. Will have to continue to monitor trends with this potential.

Any lingering snow will eventually taper off Monday morning as the cold front surges south and high pressure builds in. Highs will continue to trend below seasonal normals in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Broad surface high will be moving off to the east at the start of the period; though quiet conditions will result in Monday's overnight low temperatures falling into the teens to low 20s.

Behind the high, two fast moving Clipper systems race toward the Great Lakes region. The first of the two moves through Monday night/Tuesday with the majority of guidance keeping the track of this system well north of our area. Trends have shifted moisture content north as well, resulting in a dry forecast for our area. The pressure gradient tightens with the passage of this feature, resulting in some breezy conditions at the surface, particularly north of I-70 throughout the day on Tuesday.

The second Clipper-esq system Tuesday night/ Wednesday will be a bit more robust, as guidance suggests it deepening as it digs into the larger flow over the Great Lakes. A pretty potent LLJ and tightened gradient will also move through the region with this wave, resulting in gusty conditions on Wednesday (gust to 30-35 MPH or so possible). Guidance continues to shift the track of this system farther north as well, placing the ILN CWA more comfortably in the warm sector, resulting in a more rain solution across the region Wednesday daytime. However, cannot rule out some snow showers on the back end of the system with any lingering wrap around moisture sometime Wednesday night into Thursday.

The end of the week, guidance gets a bit more convoluted as additional shortwaves are forecast to move through the region, bringing continued chances for precipitation. Despite details on precip and precip type being scarce, there is a decent signal for stronger cold air advection to move back into the region, resulting in temperatures falling well below seasonal normals.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

CIGs gradually improving to VFR for a brief period today ahead of the cold front. MVFR vsbys are lingering into the early morning hours, but should improve back to VFR early in the taf period.

Confidence remains low on pcpn reaching KCMH/KLCK and KDAY this morning/afternoon ahead of the cold front. KDAY could observe a brief period of -FZDZ during the first couple hours of the taf period, but coverage remains isolated enough to not warrant a mention in the tafs.

MVFR CIGs become widespread again behind the cold front, which will move through this afternoon. Lower confidence in IFR CIGs behind the front, but there would be higher chances of this occurrence with any lingering pcpn tonight. General thinking remains on track that KILN and KCVG/KLUK have the best chance at observing pcpn tonight, primarily in the form of snow (some rain may be observed before a full transition occurs). Cannot rule out light snow across our northern terminals, but confidence is lower on the northern extent of pcpn.

Improvement to VFR CIGs expected to occur late tonight from north to south, so began to show this trend in the tafs.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs likely Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty winds possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.