textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms expected into Saturday morning. The potential for heavy rainfall will increase today into tonight.

2) Hot and humid next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A stalled front is laying across the I-70 corridor this morning. This front will eventually lift north later today as a shortwave trough moves out of the Mississippi River Valley and into the Ohio River Valley. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms increase during the afternoon and likely persist through the evening and into the overnight as moisture increases east of the trough axis. Locally heavy rain is possible with PWATs approaching 2 inches and efficient warm rain processes occurring. Overnight, the nose of a nocturnal LLJ works in from the west which could lead to a more focused axis of heavy rainfall south of I-70. Limited instability should help mitigate a severe storm threat, although a few strong storms with gusty winds are possible. Precipitation ends Saturday morning after the trough axis moves east.

The latest CAM guidance has been highlighting potential swaths of 2+ inches of rain south of I-70 and into northern Kentucky this afternoon through tonight. CAM guidance, along with the favorable meteorological setup for heavy rain, supports issuance of a flood watch south of I-70 for this afternoon into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

On Monday, an anomalous upper level ridge builds across the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes and lasts through at least much of next week. Persistent southwesterly flow out of the gulf states continuously brings in warm, moist air. Forecast highs by mid week are likely to be in the lower 90s along with dew points in the 70s. Lows are only expected to be in the 70s offering little relief. Heat advisory headlines are likely much of next week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A stalled front remains across the area the rest of the overnight/early morning hours. Some MVFR ceilings and MVFR/IFR visibility reductions may develop before 1200z before scattering after sunrise. By the afternoon, widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along with ceiling and visibility reductions. Widespread precipitation and flight restrictions continue into the overnight.

Winds remain light and variable through the morning before becoming light and south easterly during the day.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday morning. MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible Friday evening into Saturday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for OHZ063- 070>073-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch from this afternoon through Saturday morning for INZ066- 073>075-080.