textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the overall message this afternoon. Persistent cold lingers into tomorrow morning, with additional wintry conditions possible mid week and into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Bitterly cold temperatures continue through Tuesday morning.

2) Additional chances for wintry precipitation and gusty winds are forecast at mid week.

3) Another round of very cold conditions for the end of the work week and into next weekend. A system occurs south of the region, with some snow possible Friday through Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... As the cold front moved through the area earlier today, much colder temperatures moved in behind it, with numerous observations of -8 to -13 wind chills across eastern Indiana, and western/central Ohio. Elsewhere, values have approached zero, but the arctic air mass is still settling in over the area. Later this evening, overall wind speeds will relax, but as temperatures fall, dangerous wind chill values remain. Conditions improve above headline criteria Tuesday morning as temperatures rebound into the upper teens and 20s.

To learn about the warning signs of hypothermia and frostbite as well as how to protect your livestock and pets, visit www.weather.gov/safety/cold.

KEY MESSAGE 2...

Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, a low pressure is passing to the north of the region, with the associated cold front moving in later in the day Wednesday. Ahead of the cold front, a strong low level jet is present. While boundary mixing become more questionable later in the day, a period of gusty winds ranging from 30 to 40 mph is probable during the late morning and early afternoon. Moreover, as saturation occurs during the afternoon, attention will shift away from the wind gusts and to the potential for light snow. Moisture depth is pretty lackluster with this system, avoiding the DGZ entirely. If snow does occur, it would likely consist of very inefficient snowfall rates or as a drizzle/rain where boundary layer temperatures warm enough to allow for melting. Given this scenario, the NBM blend of snow at the onset, mixing with rain later in the day was unchanged.

KEY MESSAGE 3...

A strong area of high pressure (1044+ hPa) builds into the Ohio Valley Friday through at least Sunday. Cold temperatures in the single digits along with wind chills below zero are possible.

Snow is possible at some point Friday through Sunday with better chances into southern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Models are starting to come to agreement around the general synoptic setup for the end of this week. A strong arctic high is likely to be building into the Ohio Valley from the northwest. At the same time, a wave of low pressure may form in the extremely strong baroclinic zone south of the area. Some of the precipitation shield associated with this disturbance could work northward into southern portions of the area. Additionally, the Ohio Valley will be in the poleward exit region of a strong jet streak which could support some light precipitation chances. However, moisture should be limited and the strong high may suppress snow to the south. Ensemble guidance has the highest axis of snowfall into Kentucky and Tennessee at this time.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Main impacts to the TAFs for this period are the lingering gusty winds and occasional MVFR CIGs. Can't rule out a few snow showers or flurries, but coverage and intensity have decreased enough to eliminate the mention in the TAF. Otherwise, prevailing VFR conditions anticipated for the rest of the period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday and Wednesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>062. Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059. Cold Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for INZ066-073>075-080.