textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning bringing a mix of rain and snow to the Ohio Valley. Cold and dry conditions move in behind the low for Monday before the next system brings a chance for snow on Tuesday. Cold weather stays in place through the entire work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Surface high pressure remains in control through the early morning hours leading to dry, cold, and calm conditions prior to sunrise.

Later this morning, attention quickly shifts to a deepening low pressure system and shortwave upper level trough to the west. Around noon, precipitation chances begin increasing from west to east as moisture and forcing overspread the Ohio Valley ahead of the low. Initially, precipitation is likely to start as snow for most locations through the afternoon. However, by the evening and overnight, thermal profiles warm as the the low continues toward the Great Lakes which likely changes precipitation types towards rain over much of the area (especially south of I-70). This transition over to rain or a wintry mix greatly lowers forecast snow totals southeast of I-71. Additionally, overall QPF from this system appears fairly low which further limits snow totals over much of the area. Counties in the Winter Weather Advisory, especially further northwest of I-71, are forecast to see a couple inches of snow with isolated pockets of higher amounts through Sunday morning. Areas southeast of I-71 are far less likely to see accumulations amounting to more than an inch. In accordance with forecast snow totals, the most travel impacts are more likely northwest of I-71.

Precipitation chances taper off quickly on Sunday afternoon after a cold front attached to the low progresses through the area. A few lingering snow showers are possible before moisture exits east Sunday evening.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/

High pressure builds into the area Sunday night through Monday bringing cold, dry conditions to the region.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

The next chance for impactful winter weather arrives Monday night into Tuesday morning. A shortwave upper level trough will be ejecting out of the Plains and an associated surface low is forecast to form southeast of the Ohio Valley. Widespread light snowfall is likely to occur east of the upper level trough over the Ohio Valley. If the developing low surface low and moisture wrapping around it remain southeast as currently forecast, overall QPF and snow totals stay limited. The best chance for 1 inch of snow is along and southeast of I-71 through Tuesday morning. Probabilities of snow totals exceeding 3 inches remains less than 30 percent, but does focus in on the area along and southeast of I-71. Snow chances end on Tuesday afternoon when the upper level trough moves east.

Cold and dry conditions move back into the area Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation chances may develop again by next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will persist into early afternoon as high pressure shifts east of the area. Mid level clouds will increase/thicken through the first part of the day ahead of the precipitation, which will overspread the area from the west between approximately 18z (KDAY) and 02z (KCMH and KLCK). KCVG, KLUK, and KILN are likely to change over from light snow to rain/snow mix or rain by late this evening into tonight as LL profile temps warm sufficiently along and south of I-71. Eventually, CIG reductions develop after 00z, going from VFR to MVFR area-wide, with IFR expected for KDAY.

Light southeasterly winds develop through 18z. Winds slowly increase to about 15kts and veer to the SSE by 00z, gusting to 20-25kts toward daybreak Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR conditions are expected with wintry precipitation into Sunday morning, with MVFR CIGs persisting through the day Sunday. More snow is expected Monday night into Tuesday with additional MVFR/IFR conditions likely.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>055-060>062-070-071. KY...None. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 9 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-066.