textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Below normal temperatures are expected through the weekend, with mainly dry conditions for the Ohio Valley. A slow warming trend is expected thereafter, with much above normal temperatures by midweek of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/

Continued fetch off Lake Michigan will result in occasional flurries generally along and north of I-70. through about 00z before the low level NW flow diminishes. Not expecting any visibility restrictions nor any accumulation with plenty of low level dryness.

Winds becoming light and variable as a surface high descends into the region overnight. Some lingering low clouds across the far south, closer to lingering low level moisture, but a mix of scattered low and mid clouds overnight, with lows ranging from low to mid teens across the north closer to the center of the surface high, to mid 20s across the south.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

The surface high remains in place on Friday, with some lingering scattered clouds especially across the south, closer to the nearly stalled frontal boundary across southern KY. But otherwise dry with light winds becoming NW and increasing sun in areas north of the Ohio River. As the remnant cold front lingers across southern KY, a shallow wave of low pressure will push it slightly northward, but the associated precip and clouds should remain well south of the mid Ohio Valley. There will be a pretty tight high temperature gradient across the region, with mid 20s to near 30 across the north, and mid 30s to near 40 closer to the remnant frontal boundary across southern Ohio/SE Indiana/N. Kentucky.

Friday night the surface high remains in place with continued NW flow and slightly below normal temperatures in the mid teens to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

On Saturday morning, a wedge of surface high pressure will extend into the Ohio Valley from the northern plains. While dry conditions are expected for the ILN CWA, the Ohio Valley will be caught in between two upper level systems -- one in the southern stream moving across the southern Appalachians on Saturday, and another in the northern stream moving across the Great Lakes on Saturday night. No impacts are expected from these systems, with generally cool and dry conditions continuing through the weekend. As the surface high centers itself near the area on Sunday, with light northerly flow, temperatures will change very little from Saturday to Sunday.

Once the surface high moves off to the east on Monday, the rest of the extended forecast period will be characterized by warmer temperatures. Southerly boundary layer flow will drive much of the increase in temperatures for Monday and Tuesday, with highs by Tuesday reaching the upper 40s to upper 50s. As the week progresses, the upper level pattern will become more amplified, suggesting the potential for even warmer conditions.

In terms of precipitation, there will be a few items to note through the week. A shortwave is expected to pass through the Great Lakes on Monday, but precipitation should remain north of the ILN CWA. A deeper wave moving through on Wednesday morning, combined with some increasing theta-e advection from the south, could produce some light precipitation early Wednesday. However, any greater chances for precipitation appear likely to hold off until the end of the week, when the pattern becomes more amplified.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Low level moisture along the cold front to the south continue to slowly drift northward this evening. MVFR CIGs are now prevailing through 07-09Z for CVG/LUK/ILN when confidence increases in a push of drier air moving in from the northwest.

Otherwise, the snow that was possible across CMH/LCK has remained just to the north of the sites, therefore, the PROB30s have been removed.

Prevailing VFR conditions forecast for the rest of the TAF period with high pressure providing light and variable winds overnight, and light northwesterly to northerly winds Friday at less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.