textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the dense fog advisory.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Residual flooding and precipitation today. Dense fog this morning.

2) Near record temperatures possible today.

3) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

4) An unsettled weather pattern will bring additional precipitation chances to the region Monday night through Thursday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Residual flooding and precipitation today. Dense fog this morning.

Some area rivers are still high and a few remain in flood. There is additional ongoing shower activity near the Ohio River this morning. Activity will decrease with time and shift northward. North of this precipitation dense fog will be present.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Near record temperatures possible today.

Precipitation and clouds will decrease. Southerly flow will bring warm conditions to the area today. Current forecast high temperatures today are CVG 77, DAY 76, and CMH 74. Records are listed below. At this time high temperatures are expected to stay below record values for Saturday, however this will be dependent on precipitation timing.

Records for March 6: CVG 74 (1910,1973) 60 (1956) CMH 76 (1973) 55 (1983) DAY 74 (1910, 2022) 58 (1946, 1956)

Records for Mar 7: CVG 79 (1974) 58 (1974) CMH 77 (1974, 1983, 2009) 56 (1974) DAY 76 (1974, 2000) 56 (2009)

KEY MESSAGE 3) More showers and storms expected on Saturday with potential for severe weather.

Showers and storms will move across the region on Saturday. The best severe potential will be across the eastern portions of the region across central Ohio, down into the lower Scioto Valley and portions of northern Kentucky. Cannot rule out an isolated strong to severe storm further west from this area however. The main threat would be damaging winds. This system looks to be progressive, however with saturated soils, heavy downpours could lead to isolated flooding concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 4) An unsettled weather pattern will bring additional precipitation chances to the region Monday night through Thursday morning.

Another unsettled weather pattern develops for next week with warm temperatures through the day on Wednesday. Colder air moves into Wednesday night with lows dropping down into the 30s in many locations. There is quite a bit of moisture with the Tuesday night into Wednesday timeframe and therefore cannot rule out additional flooding concerns.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

LIFR to MVFR conditions will start the TAF period due to fog and stratus. Some showers will also be possible at the beginning of the TAF period. Conditions will improve during the day today as winds start to pick up. VFR conditions are expected by this afternoon. LLWS will be possible tonight. Thunderstorms will be possible at the longer KCVG TAF.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely along with thunderstorms on Saturday. Gusty winds are also expected on Saturday. MVFR conditions are possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>062. KY...None. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for INZ050-058-059.