textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur ahead of a cold front that will move through the region Friday evening.
2) More showers and storms will occur later Monday into Monday night ahead of the next cold front.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) Short wave breaking off the southern end of energy wrapping around a closed low in the Canadian Plains will push across the region Friday into Friday night. This is looking a bit disjointed with no single focus of mid level energy. Weakening showers and storms moving across Indiana during the morning into the early afternoon may see an uptick in intensity mid to late afternoon as they head further east into the forecast area where ML CAPE could reach around 1000 J/kg. Additional showers and storms will occur into the evening as an associated cold front sweeps across the region. Bulk shear looks to be on the marginal side, but cannot rule out some stronger storms with damaging wind being the primary concern.
KEY MESSAGE 2) Robust short wave will track from the central Plains into the Great Lakes Sunday night into Monday night. Pretty good broad agreement within the model suite for this system. Surface low pressure will pass off to the north and west but arcing cold front extending from this low will push across the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning. It may stay dry all day Monday with showers and storms spreading across the area Monday night. Parameters look favorable for some severe storms to the west and southwest of the region. But there is quite a bit of question whether that will be able to sustained into the night as the system translates east into the middle Ohio Valley. This may have a somewhat better potential to produce locally heavy rainfall in parts of the area Monday night. Still quite a ways out but a system to monitor.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
Visibility reductions at the Columbus terminals to start the period should end by 14Z. Beyond that VFR will prevail. High based cumulus will develop with daytime heating. These clouds will diminish after 00Z. Winds will become southwest increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Winds will back to the south and become light again after 00Z.
OUTLOOK....Thunderstorms possible Friday into Friday night. MVFR ceilings are possible Friday night into Saturday morning.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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