textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Increasing southerly flow will lead to warmer temperatures today. A cold front will move southeast across the region tonight, bringing a brief return to colder weather for Sunday. Temperatures will then moderate with mild conditions expected through the remainder of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Zonal flow aloft will continue through this afternoon. This will allow for some mid and high level clouds to stream eastward across the region at times today. Meanwhile at the surface, a low pressure system will move across the northern Great Lakes and southern Ontario with a trailing cold front pushing east across the western Great Lakes. This will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the Ohio Valley as we progress through the day. Ahead of the front, a 40-50 knot 850 knot jet will also shift eastward into our area through this afternoon. Dry low level should help some of the mixing today so expect breezy conditions to develop with some winds gusts in the 30-35 mph range possible. In the WAA pattern, temperatures will also moderate with highs today ranging from the mid 40s north to the lower 50s in the far south.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

The cold front will move southeast across our area through tonight. Moisture is generally relegated to the mid levels, so expect a dry frontal passage with mainly just an increase in mid level clouds. In the developing CAA behind the front, lows tonight will range from the lower 20s northwest to around 30 degrees in the southeast.

Surface high pressure will build into the region through the day on Sunday. This will result in mostly sunny but cool conditions with highs ranging from the lower 30s north to the upper 30s south.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

On Sunday evening, an area of surface high pressure will be centered over the Ohio Valley, with generally WNW flow aloft. The extended forecast period will be characterized by pseudo-zonal flow aloft over the Ohio Valley, with ridging over the southeastern CONUS. Generally southerly boundary layer flow is expected through the week, punctuated by a couple of brief shifts to northerly flow and cold advection, before warmer air surges north into the area again. As a result of this pattern, temperatures are expected to be well above normal through the week. As of now, Thursday looks like the warmest day of the week, with highs in the lower 60s.

There will also be occasional chances for rain, as disturbances move east through the flow aloft. Overall model agreement has improved somewhat with regards to timing out the greatest chances of rain. One chance will be Monday night into Tuesday morning, with a significant surge in 850mb-700mb moisture ahead of a mid-level wave. Another chance will be on Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with an even deeper surge of moisture through the boundary layer and aloft. With temperatures as warm as they are expected to be, all precipitation should be rain. As of now, there are no signals for any significant, prolonged, or heavy precipitation, so confidence in any hazardous weather occurring is low.

AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Mid and high level clouds will stream eastward across the region today in zonal flow aloft. Breezy conditions will develop later this morning and continue through this afternoon with southerly winds of 15 to 20 knots and some gusts to around 30 knots possible. Winds will begin to decrease toward sunset. A cold front will move southeast through the region tonight with winds shifting around to the west-northwest toward the end of the period. VFR conditions will prevail.

OUTLOOK...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.