textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory issued for the local area, with low temperatures tonight ranging from the lower to mid 30s in the Tri-State into southeast Indiana to the mid/upper 20s in west- central, south-central, central Ohio and northeast Kentucky.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frost and Freeze conditions are likely again tonight into early Wednesday morning. Sensitive vegetation should be protected from the cold.

2) Above normal temperatures will return midweek and extend into early next week. Mainly dry conditions are favored through this time, with only a few chances for light showers, particularly Thursday/Friday, and next Monday/Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Sfc high pressure will drift E of the region tonight, with light easterly LL flow becoming established area-wide. This setup, along with mainly clear skies through at least the first half of the night, will promote good radiational cooling, helping temps in rural/sheltered areas dip into the mid to upper 20s. This is most favored in parts of west-central, central, and south-central OH into NE KY where skies will remain the clearest the longest. However, some mid clouds will begin to overspread W/SW parts of the ILN FA during the predawn hours. This, combined with the wind staying up at about 5-7kts, may keep parts of the Tri-State into nrn KY above freezing. However, even with these factors, temps may still dip to near freezing prior to temps plateauing or nosing up a few degrees just prior to daybreak. The maintenance of the wind may inhibit some frost/freeze potential in areas that are not sheltered and therefore are not able to decouple.

There was enough confidence to issue a Freeze warning across the local area again through 10 AM Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Following the frost/freeze conditions tonight into early Wednesday morning, a rapid change in the weather pattern will unfold, allowing for a much warmer airmass to advect into the OH Vly midweek and beyond. Midlevel flow aloft will become more zonal by Thursday, even as a weak front attempts to drift S into nrn parts of the region by late Thursday into Friday. More pronounced/amplified ridging will build in by this weekend, bringing /much/ above normal temps by early next week. Rising heights will result in an anomalously warm air mass for this time of the year for an extended period of time. By Sunday/Monday, the ILN FA will likely have daytime highs in the 80s yet again, which will be ~20 degrees above normal for this time of the year.

During this unseasonably warm stretch, PWs will remain quite low locally, suggesting that any rain chances along/near the front Thursday and Friday will be somewhat ISO in nature. The best rain chances will likely evolve Friday afternoon into the evening near/north of I-70 before the front stalls and quickly pivots back to the N Friday night. Ensemble guidance is fairly consistent showing relatively low PWs through the majority of the upcoming weekend, suggesting warm/dry conditions will prevail locally Saturday and Sunday before shower/storm chances increase by late Monday into Tuesday with the approach of a S/W and associated front from the mid MS Rvr Vly.

An extended period of above normal temperatures is expected from Wednesday through at least next Tuesday, with several days with daily averages expected to be around 20 degrees above seasonal norms.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Some mid clouds may skirt far SW sites of KCVG/KLUK through the remainder of the daytime, with just a FEW cirrus elsewhere. Skies will trend mostly clear by 00z, with mid/high clouds increasing in coverage from the W/SW past 09z. Aside from some cirrus, skies will trend clearer once again toward the end of the period.

N/NE winds around 8-10kts will subside to around 5kts past 00z, but likely won't go completely calm through daybreak. Winds will become more easterly overnight before veering to out of the SE around 6- 8kts for the daytime.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-078>082-088. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for OHZ077. KY...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ099-100. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089>098. IN...Freeze Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-058-059-066. Frost Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for INZ073>075-080.