textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold front just south of the Ohio River could result in an isolated shower/storm today, mainly in northern Kentucky.

2) Showers and possibly some thunderstorms expected Tuesday night into Wednesday.

3) Temperatures moderate this week before a warming trend ensues next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Latest surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface cold front positioned just south of the Ohio River. Some CAA cu beginning to develop for portions of our CWA. While majority of the fa will remain dry today, it should still be mentioned that the proximity of the cold front could pose a very isolated potential for a shower or storm in our far south. Majority of CAMs keep any shower/storm initiation just south of our fa, but cannot rule out something developing for Lewis County, KY or nearby counties. This would primarily be during the afternoon and evening hours before the front continues to advance farther south, diminishing any pcpn potential for tonight.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Model consensus remains high on a shortwave trough that will bring rain chances to our CWA late Tuesday into Wednesday. Highest precip chances continue to remain during the overnight hours Tuesday based on latest timing of the shortwave and associated surface cold front. Locations in south-central OH may see better chances for storm development on Wednesday if there is some destabilization during the daytime hours Wednesday before the frontal passage. However, any severe risk remains low for now, and the QPF footprint remains pretty light.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Drier and relatively cooler air build in for the start of the work week behind the recent cold frontal passage. However, a very meridional flow pattern will result in rapid fluctuations, with temperatures just below seasonal normals on Monday, with highs trending back above normal on Tuesday and perhaps even Wednesday. After another cold frontal passage Wednesday, a brief dip in temperatures will occur on Thursday, but then we rapidly warm back up to above normal temps for the end of the week into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions persist through the taf period. Some diurnal cu possible today and again on Monday. Winds will be variable out of the north today around 10 kts or less. Winds subside tonight and will eventually become more prevailing out of the NW for Monday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.