textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No substantial changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Several rounds of showers through the weekend.

2) Temperatures will be normal to below normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) The synoptic conditions over the next week will generally be characterized by long wave troughing over the Great Lakes and below average temperatures. Multiple disturbances bring several chances for rain through the next 7 days.

The first chance for light rain is tonight along and north of I-70 due to an upper level shortwave trough moving across the Great Lakes. QPF amounts remain light.

The next chance for showers, and possibly a thunderstorm or two, develops across southern Ohio, eastern Indiana, and northern Kentucky late Friday afternoon and overnight on Friday. Weak, but persistent, WAA allows moisture to increase along a convergent axis at the nose of a LLJ. Rain totals anywhere from 0.5 to 1 inch are possible south of I-70. Model guidance suggest the onset of showers could be delayed as the atmosphere could be slow to saturate Friday afternoon.

A cold front brings rain chances to the entire area on Sunday followed by another chance for rain toward the middle of next week when a low moves through.

KEY MESSAGE 2) The long wave trough will generally keep cooler conditions across the region. There will be a modest warm up to around normal from Friday night into Saturday night. But then temperatures will drop back below normal until the middle of next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Scattered light rain showers will affect areas along and north of the I-70 corridor at times through the overnight hours. We will get into a break in any pcpn Friday morning before more widespread showers overspread the region from the west later Friday afternoon into Friday night. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible later Friday night into Saturday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.