textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted Monday and Tuesday high temperatures cooler.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain below normal through Friday morning before transitioning to a warmer air mass Saturday. Warm temperatures are forecast Monday and Tuesday before a cold front passes through late Tuesday into Wednesday.

2) Unsettled weather returns Friday night and continues through the weekend with showers and thunderstorms occurring in the region. A warm front shifts north early next week, providing dry conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow aloft with surface high pressure building into the area tonight. Cooler temperatures persist today, with highs from the lower 60s northeast where more clouds are observed to the upper 60s southwest. These readings will be 8 to 10 degrees below normal.

Surface high pressure shifts southeast of the region on Friday, allowing a southerly low level flow to develop. This will result in an increase in temperatures with highs generally in the lower 70s. More humid conditions develop Saturday with highs warming into the lower 80s. These readings will be 7 to 10 degrees above normal. Temperatures look to warm into the mid and upper 80s on Sunday with lower rainfall chances with a warm front lifting north of the region.

An anomalously strong mid level ridge ridge builds over the eastern CONUS early next week. This will support warm temperatures. While it will be warm Monday likely into Tuesday - the NBM looks to be too warm given the thermal profiles and 8H temperature fields. Have adjusted temperatures - using a blend of WPC and superblend with highs Monday generally in the upper 80s to perhaps 90 in the east. The warm readings may linger into Tuesday depending on the timing of a cold front. There is still uncertainty regarding the timing of a cold front passage but based on the mid and upper level flow pattern have leaned toward a slower frontal passage. Again have adjusted the NBM temperatures with highs from the mid 80s west to near 90 in the far east.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Scattered showers could begin as early as Friday night, as warm southwesterly flow increases moisture into the Ohio Valley.

Thunderstorm chances increase Saturday into Saturday night ahead of a warm front. Moderate instability looks to develop with favorable elevated lapse rates. There is still a good deal of spatial and temporal uncertainty at this time but some of the ML solutions are pointing to the potential for strong to severe storms. We will continue to monitor the severe weather potential as we get closer in time and enter the CAM solution timeframe.

The front will lift northward Sunday, pushing any additional shower and thunderstorm chances to northern portions of the area, generally along and north of the I-70 corridor. With the deep ridge building into over the eastern CONUS Sunday night into Monday, dry conditions are expected to return.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Dry conditions are expected thru the TAF forecast period. A period of MVFR ceilings is possible early this morning from at CMH and LCK with a band of stratocumulus clouds. Expect VFR clouds thru the day with ceilings between 4000 and 5000 feet. Clouds scatter out this evening with only some high level clouds spilling into the region.

Northwest winds at 10 kts or less this morning with gusts up to 20 kts Thursday afternoon. Winds subside this evening and become light and variable.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Friday night through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.