textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential for showers and thunderstorms returns late tonight and continues through the weekend.

2) Increasing heat and humidity next week with continued chances for mainly afternoon and evening showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Broad mid and upper level ridge to shift east and flatten as shortwave energy passes thru the Great Lakes overnight thru Saturday. Initial shortwave passes to our north with convection that develops in the upper midwest tonight tracking southeast and weakening as it approaches the region toward daybreak Saturday. This convection will have decreasing chances for thunder as it drops into our northern counties Saturday morning.

After the morning clouds clear the airmass will recover with moderate instability expected Saturday afternoon. Model solutions continue to show a wide array of possible outcomes - therefore uncertainty is high. Following a consensus solution with the moderate instability developing during the afternoon - the most favored area for the development of deep convection is along and north of I-70. With the tail of weakening jet pivoting thru central Ohio, this will be the most favored region for organized convection during the late afternoon and into the evening. Damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat. Cannot rule out isolated large hail or even a tornado.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A skinny narrow mid level ridge builds into the region Sunday into early next week. A system lifts northeast on the back side of this retreating ridge bringing increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. A broad mid level ridge then looks to build into the region for late week into next weekend. This will allow temperatures and dew points to increase with the potential for impactful weather due to heat. Temperatures look to increase with highs approaching 90 on Thursday and then likely rising to 90 or above for Friday. Maximum heat indices look to approach 100 Thursday and possibly rise above 100 Friday in many locations.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours, with some increase in high and mid level clouds. Winds will remain out of the southwest, sustained at about 10 knots.

On Saturday, some showers may move through the Dayton and Columbus TAF sites during the morning, and this has been addressed with a PROB30 group. MVFR conditions are possible. Some chance that there could be thunderstorms with this morning activity, but the probability seems very low at this time.

On Saturday afternoon, additional showers and storms will develop, and these could be a little more robust. These will be most likely after 20Z at KDAY/KCMH/KLCK/KILN, with very little chance of reaching as far south as KCVG/KLUK. Will also keep this to a PROB30 group rather than a prevailing or TEMPO mention, as the exact timing and placement of these storms remains in question.

Southwest winds Saturday afternoon will gust into the 20-25 knot range. OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible, mainly during the afternoon and evening, each day from Sunday through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.