textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move southeast of the area early this morning. Rain will end early, then drier and cooler conditions will move in later today and will last through Thursday.

2) Unsettled conditions will return late Friday into the weekend, along with moderating temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A cold front was located just east of the I-71 corridor at 06Z. This front will continue to move southeast over the next several hours. A weak wave of low pressure riding along the front will keep showers going through daybreak, however radar trends and latest model guidance indicates the western edge of the rain making into our western CWA around or just before daybreak, with PoPs decreasing from west to east through the early morning hours.

After the rain ends, clouds may hang on for a few hours, however guidance suggests some breaks in the clouds occurring during the late morning/midday hours before mostly cloudy skies return for much of the afternoon.

At least partial clearing is expected tonight, and this will help temperatures to drop into the upper 30s north to lower/mid 40s south. Will continue to include patchy frost for a couple hours in our extreme north/northwest counties where lows in the upper 30s are forecast. Cool but dry conditions are expected Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Low level southerly winds return on Friday, helping to moderate temperatures. Models show a shortwave trough bringing showers and possibly a few thunderstorms from late Friday into early Saturday. Highest PoPs are forecast on Friday night.

The majority of Saturday will be dry, then another shortwave/cold front will move from west to east across the area on Sunday bringing the likelihood for showers and possible thunderstorms. Behind the front, the start of next week looks cooler and drier at this point.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Cold front has moved east of the area. Any lingering showers will end early this morning. Have already observed a rapid improvement in conditions (ceilings) from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK, and this will occur at the remaining terminals by or just after 12Z and expect VFR conditions for the balance of today and through the valid TAF period. Winds will be from the north 10 to 15 knots today, then will shift to the west/northwest tonight diminishing to around 5 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions are possible Friday night into early Saturday. MVFR conditions and thunderstorms are possible Sunday into Sunday evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.