textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm temperatures remain through the upcoming week as high pressure moves east. Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

The onset of the upcoming warm period has begun this afternoon with mid to upper 70s and lower 80s observed across the area. Overnight, a weak system quickly moves into the area. Strong low level winds present an opportunity for strong wind gusts before daybreak, but this will be dependent on if the winds can reach the surface. This weak system moving through the lower Great Lakes interrupts the sunshine on Monday, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms possible during the morning and early afternoon hours.

Then, the mid-level ridge becomes more established into mid-week as a few weak disturbances result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms primarily northwest of the local area. Given some of the uncertainty, NBM PoPs were a bit higher than desired and were therefore lowered after collaboration with surrounding offices north of the area.

Despite the lower potential for widespread rainfall, southwesterly flow continues to support warm and moist southwesterly flow. However, a moist and warm southwesterly flow will support scattered shower and thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours. Wednesday night into Thursday is when the better chance for showers and thunderstorms arrives, due to a strong trough moving through the Great Lakes.

The mid-level ridge quickly builds back into place, with attention shifting to a stronger cold front set to move through next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions through the rest of the afternoon and evening with gusts ranging from 20 to 25 knots. A period of LLWS develops during the overnight as a system approaches the area.

Chances for showers increase after 06Z, but maintained the PROB30 thresholds given the lack of coverage. Thunderstorm chances also remain quite low. MVFR CIGs will accompany periods of rain showers.

As the system moves through toward 12Z, there is some potential for stronger winds. For now, wind gusts in the 20 to 25 knot range are advertised, however, some stronger wind gusts over 30 knots cannot be ruled out.

The better chance for more frequent wind gusts near 30 knots arrives after 13Z, becoming less frequent and lower in strength toward the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions and thunderstorms possible at times Monday through Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.