textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record temperatures today ahead of a cold front that will move through during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will occur along and behind the front with the potential that there could be some strong to severe storms.

2) Temperatures will drop closer to normal early in the week.

3) Another cold front will move through the area Thursday night bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Near record temperatures today ahead of a cold front that will move through during the late afternoon and early evening. Showers and some thunderstorms will occur along and behind the front with the potential that there could be some strong to severe storms.

Southwest flow will tap into the highly anomalous hot airmass that has been over the central and western parts of the country. Expect 850 mb temperatures to be near 18C to start the day with this slowly getting suppressed southward as the day progresses and a cold front pushes in from the north. So southern counties should still be able to tap/mix into this airmass which could push high temperatures close to record levels. Not as clear that it will be quite that warm from I-70 northwards, but cannot discount the possibility of records at Dayton and Columbus as well.

Record highs for 3/22: CVG 85 (1907), DAY 84 (1907), CMH 85 (2012)

Atmosphere ahead of the cold front will be capped, although that will weaken late in the day. There may be enough convergence along the front to break the cap in central Ohio and points eastward, but that is uncertain. If storms can develop, then there will be the potential for severe cells with damaging wind and large hail given amount of instability and bulk shear forecast as well as fairly steep low and mid level lapse rates. If LCLs remain high, which there is an 80 percent chance of occurring, then any tornado threat should be quite limited.

Expect more widespread showers and thunderstorms to develop behind the front as a trailing short wave pushes east southeast. With the front undercutting the unstable airmass, there will be a window of a few hours after frontal passage when there will be still be sufficient elevated instability to have updrafts strong enough potentially develop large hail. That threat should clear the forecast area by 06Z, if not a bit sooner.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures will drop closer to normal early in the week.

High pressure will build in for Monday and move off to the east on Tuesday. Temperatures will fall a few degrees below normal Monday and then rebound on southerly flow Tuesday to or slightly above normal. Additional warming into midweek is a bit more aggressive that earlier iterations.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Another cold front will move through the area Thursday night bringing another chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Mid level pattern is pretty stable into the latter part of the week with the ensemble system showing little spread for that far out in time. So there is reasonably good confidence that a short wave will track from the upper Mississippi Valley into New England Thursday night into Friday. This will push another cold front across the region Thursday night with more showers and thunderstorms. At this point, forecast instability is modest at best. But there is good shear and some of the AI convective outlooks do show a risk, so that will be monitored as the system gets closer in time.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High clouds will persist through most of the day. South winds will strengthen and veer to the southwest. There will be gusts up to 25 kt with some upside potential where gusts could be 30 kt or more between 20Z and 23Z. A cold front will drop south across the region this evening, crossing the terminals between 23Z and 02Z. Some thunderstorms will be possible immediately ahead of the front in the Columbus area. Areawide, winds will shift to the north and ceilings will fall to MVFR below 2kft. Showers and some embedded thunder will spread across the region a few hours after frontal passage. It is possible that ceilings could fall to IFR within this more widespread precipitation, but confidence was too low to include in the TAFs at this time. The showers will move out of the area by 06Z. MVFR ceilings will persist, although they may rise above 2kft late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will continue into Monday morning. MVFR ceilings and thunderstorms possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.