textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted snow totals downward for Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Chances for light precipitation tonight and again Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A strengthening low level jet will develop tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. In developing weak isentropic lift, some light precipitation will develop across our north, mainly toward/after midnight. This pcpn will then shift southeast through the early morning hours on Wednesday. Thermal profiles are marginal for rain vs snow, with ptype trending more toward snow in our northeast and rain in our southwest. Any QPF values will be on the light side though and with surface temperatures remaining near or just above freezing, do not anticipate much in the way of any problems.

A mid level short wave will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. There remains a fair amount of spread in the models with timing/strength and placement of this feature. The 12Z operational NAM is fairly weak and generates little in the way of pcpn, while most of the CAMs also appear fairly weak and have trended somewhat farther south, bringing the best chance of pcpn into our southern areas, while the GFS remains somewhat farther north and a bit stronger. Will generally take a blend of these solutions, and trend toward the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means, but confidence is not terribly high.

Ptype will also be an issue as it looks like pcpn will be mainly snow in our north, trending to a rain/snow mix to rain across our south. As a result, there is some uncertainty with snow amounts but based on the forecast trends, have shifted the axis of snow southward and backed off on amounts somewhat. It appears the best chance for accumulations will likely be south of I-70 and north of the Ohio River, but think any accums will generally be an inch or less.

AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Some spotty lingering MVFR cigs across central Ohio should improve fairly quickly this afternoon, with primarily mid and high level clouds persisting into early evening. A cold front will move southeast across the region later tonight into Wednesday morning.

A strengthening low level jet ahead of the front will lead to some LLWS through the overnight hours. Scattered light rain and snow showers will also be possible ahead of the front later tonight. The best chance for this appears to be across central Ohio where some MVFR cigs and vsbys will also be possible for a few hour period.

Ahead of the front, southwest winds will gust to around 25 knots tonight. As the front moves through, winds will become more westerly late tonight into Wednesday morning with partial clearing developing toward the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.