textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A warm front continues to lift through the area this afternoon, followed by a cold front passage into the evening. A strong cold front will move across the region Sunday night. Well above normal temperatures will then become below normal for next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Updated AFD due to the expiration of the Dense Fog advisory.

Dense fog will finally clear the area early this afternoon as the warm front lifts northward. Strong southwesterly flow is ushering in warmer temperatures, with Cincinnati reaching the 60 degree mark around noon. These warmer temperatures eventually reach the Columbus area before the cold front moves quickly moves in this evening. Temperatures steadily drop through the evening and overnight, back into the upper 30s and lower 40s by Saturday morning.

Breaks in the clouds are expected ahead of the cold front, but overcast skies return this evening and will remain into Saturday morning. Can't rule out some patchy fog, but there are no expectations for widespread dense fog like earlier today.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

High pressure builds over the Great Lakes during the morning hours on Saturday, sliding farther eastward throughout the day. Winds initially starting out of the northeast turn more southeasterly as the cold front moves northward as a warm front develops south of the region once again. Clouds will be stubborn under the high pressure throughout the day, but some breaks in the clouds are anticipated, especially by the late afternoon and early evening. This won't last long as the next system approaches Saturday night.

A warm front brings the next chance of rainfall into Sunday morning, along with the potential for fog. The best chance for dense fog with the front is across eastern Indiana and western Ohio, similar to today (Friday).

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The main concerns for the long term are severe weather potential Sunday night, strong gusty winds Sunday night and Monday, quickly dropping temperatures with snow showers Monday creating potential slick conditions, single digit wind chills Monday into Tuesday morning, clipper system bringing the potential for a quick area of snow late New Years Eve into New Years Day.

Severe weather potential. A thin line of showers will have the potential to bring strong to severe level gusty winds Sunday night in advance of a cold front. The area is currently in a marginal risk for severe weather.

Gusty winds, dropping temperatures, and potential slick spots. A cold front will move through Sunday night into Monday allowing for quickly falling temperatures. Some snow showers are expected as the colder air moves in. Cannot rule out some slick spots Monday into Monday night with the snow showers and residual moisture. Wind gusts during the day on Monday will approach advisory level criteria. With the winds and cooler air moving in, single digit wind chill values are expected Monday into Tuesday morning.

While there are differences in location and strength of a system moving through overnight New Years Eve into New Years Day, there are enough signals to increase snowfall chances into the chance category during this time in order to heighten awareness of this feature.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Still dealing with lingering fog/drizzle impacts across area TAF sites, leading to LIFR/IFR restrictions. As the cold front approaches this afternoon, expecting improvements in both CIGs and VIS, but primarily VIS. CIGs are likely to remain IFR/low-end MVFR as some breaks in the clouds form. Continued mention of gusts in the lower 20 knot range, but these have yet to become more widespread. The breaks in the clouds ahead of the cold front will help provide the stronger winds. Expect a wind shift this evening as the cold front moves through area TAF sites.

Any improvements observed with CIGs ahead of and along the front will be stopped as IFR conditions return area wide behind the cold front. High pressure to the north will provide light northerly/northeasterly winds tonight.

Winds continue to turn more easterly and then eventually southeasterly Saturday afternoon. There may be a break in the CIGs toward the end of the TAF, but restrictions will return as the next system approaches.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely to return Sunday into Monday. Wind gusts at or above 30 kt are possible Sunday night and Monday. MVFR ceilings could linger into Tuesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.