textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A cold weather period can be expected with the coldest conditions early next week. Snow showers will end this morning with additional chances for snow Friday and Saturday, as another low pressure system moves through the Great Lakes.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Persistent bands of lake enhanced snow showers affecting ILN/s forecast area from Dayton thru Wilmington, the south side of the Columbus metro area, thru our southeast counties. Air temperatures in the upper teens to lower 20s combined with cold surface temperatures was leading to accumulations on area roads. Expect these bands of snow showers to continue to rotate southeast and weaken as they exit the area early this morning. Accumulations will vary with some locations observing 1 to locally 2 inches. The snow will impact the morning commute so have issued a winter weather advisory thru 14Z.

Previous discussion...

Deep mid and upper level low centered over northern Ohio to migrate east this morning and then northeast thru the eastern Great Lakes today. Scattered snow showers moving across the area will decrease in coverage and intensity through the early morning. With cold pavement temperatures, any bursts of snow will leave some light accumulation which may result in slick spots. After sunrise can not rule out some lingering snow flurries thru the morning.

Northwest winds gusting up to 30 mph early will slowly diminish thru the day but still remain gusty into the afternoon. The wind combined with air temperatures falling into the teens will result in single digit apparent temperatures this morning.

High temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal with highs from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Surface ridge builds into the area late in the day into this evening allowing for clouds to briefly give way to clear. Attention shifts to the next low dropping into the Great Lakes. Clouds and light snow will develop in the warm air advection ahead of this system late tonight and Friday. Expect snow total thru Friday to generally be less than an inch with the potential for locally up to an inch. Although the snow will be light - given the cold ground temperatures even a few tenths of an inch could lead to impacts. Will continue to mention the chances for snow across Friday and Saturday in the HWO. Lows tonight generally in the mid and upper teens rise to highs between 35 and 40 on Friday.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

The main story for the extended period is going to be the prolonged period of bitterly cold temperatures/ wind chills. Deep longwave troughing over the Mid-Atlantic and Great Lakes region and subsequent shortwaves will bring a very cold arctic airmass down into the region. In fact, by Saturday night, we'll enter a period where daytime high temperatures only reach the teens and overnight lows fall into the single digits. When we factor in the wind, wind chills will be in the negatives to around zero degrees between Saturday night all the way through Wednesday. Now is the time to plan for an extended period of extreme cold by inspecting your residence, vehicle, and have plans in place for outdoor livestock.

Looking at precipitation chances, a series of shortwaves moving through the larger trough will keep snow chances in the forecast. The first vort lobe will swing down through the larger flow Friday into Saturday, introducing episodic snow showers to the forecast during this time period. Exact placement of snow is a bit tricky at this time as there is currently no strong signal for any deep, impactful accumulations. However, with broad scale cyclonic flow over, there is plenty of energy and lift to go around and anticipate that most areas should see at least small accumulations.

Saturday night into Sunday another shot of energy will move through the region, continuing the periodic snow showers. There is some signal for more impactful snow to our south (moreso through Kentucky), though guidance still quite hasn't nailed this down yet.

As we head into the following work week, additional shortwaves move through the flow, but snowfall looks to remain closer to the Great Lakes and we dry out.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mid and upper level low over the area slides to the east and then east-northeast across the eastern Great Lakes today. Expect MVFR ceilings with widely scattered snow showers dropping vsbys into the IFR category for brief periods early. The snow showers will diminish by sunrise with only some lingering flurries this morning. MVFR ceilings will improve to VFR this afternoon as high pressure briefly builds into the region.

Gusty northwest winds will continue but subside slightly through the day and then back to southwest at 10 kts or less tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities along with gusts near 30 kt are possible on Friday. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Friday night into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for OHZ051- 053>055-061>065-071>074-078>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for KYZ099-100. IN...None.