textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included a mention of showers/storms next weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms continue today.

2) Below normal temperatures are expected through the work week. More rounds of showers and storms expected late this week and into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Update... Latest surface analysis shows that the front was over South Central Ohio and Northeast Kentucky. The frontal boundary will continue pushing southeast of the area with only a few lingering light rain showers coming to an end early. With the threat of heavy rain and flooded ended, have allowed the flood watch to expire.

Previous discussion... Surface low continues to propagate eastward through Ohio today. Cold front associated with this surface low is draped near the I-71 corridor early this afternoon. Showers and storms will continue to initiate near the frontal boundary. SPC mesoanalysis shows SBCAPE values increasing to 1000-1500 J/kg ahead of the cold front, with effective shear values near 30 kts. Storms will generally remain cellular with some multi-cell clusters developing as coverage in storms increase. Overall, the severe threat should remain fairly limited, but the environment does support the potential for some strong wind gusts and perhaps an isolated damaging gust in these storms.

From a hydro perspective, PWATs still remain near 1.5-1.75" SE of I-71, indicating a very moist environment ahead of the front. However, flooding issues will likely be limited given that there should be enough storm motion to limit prolonged convection in one location. Any flooding issues would likely be a result of training thunderstorms should this occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High temperatures are forecast to range from the middle 70s to mid 80s through the work week, which will generally remain below seasonal normals. However, we will begin to observe a warming trend next weekend.

More rounds of showers and storms can be expected later this week and perhaps continuing into the weekend. Global models and ensembles are picking up on a signal for pcpn on Thursday associated with a cold front. There are some indications that this boundary may stall out near the Ohio River, which would lead to repeated rounds of convection Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Cold front will continue to push off to the southeast with high pressure building into the Upper MS Valley overnight. MVFR ceilings improve to VFR and a few lingering showers to come to an end this evening. VFR conditions will then persist overnight into Tuesday with the high building into the region.

Northwest winds gusting up to 20 kts will become more north-north at 10 kts or less overnight. North to northwest winds at 10-12 kts will gust up to 20 kts on Tuesday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible again on Thursday and Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.