textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated wording for the severe threat on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures above normal through Friday, with a chance for a few records to be set today.

2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Gusty winds occur Friday behind a cold front.

3) Below normal temps for next week. High uncertainty on precip chances Sat night-Sun.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Temperatures above normal, with a few records potentially broken today.

Using the 01:00 observations and current fcst, it looks like Dayton and Cincinnati could see record high mins for this date. For this, it will all come down to the temps recorded between 23:00 and midnight. Dayton needs to stay above 49, and Cincy above 53, which both look to be attainable. Sorry Cbus, your midnight temp of 50 doesn't keep you in the running as the record high min is 52.

After any morning showers that may occur, temperatures will rise as warmer air is advected on sw wind of 10-20 mph. Cloud cover will hold tough for the first part of the day but should break up later and could get that added kick of direct heating to push readings up to the mid 60s.

As far as breaking any daytime high temperature records the best chance will be at Dayton. Clearing skies look to be earliest here, and the forecast high of 65 could nose to the record of 66. Cloud cover should hamper records at Cincy and Cbus.

A warm front will cross the area on Thursday. Rain chances and clouds should limit excessive temperature rises, but well above normal temperatures will be a given. Readings begin to cool Friday as a cold front moves east through the region, with Friday max temps found in the morning ahead of the frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Chances for showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Thursday night. Scattered severe thunderstorms are possible. Gusty winds occur Friday behind a cold front.

Latest SWODY2 has pushed the slight risk just a bit to the north, pulling in a few Ohio counties and removing a chunk of Kentucky counties. This does not change the overall expected weather. Southerly winds ahead of a sfc low will bring in moisture, which may interact with upper level s/w energy moving ene to produce showers in the afternoon. Rain looks to be favored best in the late day/early evening as a warm front develops ahead of the sfc low that will be situated along the IA/IL border at this time.

The surface low pressure off to the northwest promotes a favorable low-level wind shear profile with backing flow throughout the lower troposphere. This results in moderately curved hodographs, which are to be expected near the warm front with a low pressure to the northwest. Despite the concerning hodographs, the lack of steep mid- level lapse rates, likely limits the ability for numerous strong updrafts within the warm sector. Even more uncertainty remains with how long surface based thunderstorms may remain within the favorable atmosphere before the cooling temperatures in the evening decreases overall instability. Storms would require a long enough residence time to allow for organization and the resulting hazards (hail, damaging winds, tornadoes). While there are some CAMs that show very little activity over the area (NAM3km, ARW), there is a primary theme across some of the others. Thunderstorms likely initiate west of the area across Illinois and south-central Indiana. As they move northeast into the local area, southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio have the greatest coverage of surface based, rotating storms. These storms move through between 6 and 9pm, weakening into central Ohio by 10 to 11pm. Will update this latest thinking when all of the 12Z guidance is in along with the SPC 1730 UTC update.

Breezy on Friday: As the cold front moves through during the day Friday, wind gusts of 25 to 35 mph are expected, especially across eastern Indiana, western and central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Temperatures below normal next week and diminishing chances for precip this weekend, some of which would be snow.

Lowered the precip threat for Sat night/Sun and would have cared to eliminate them through at least 18Z Sun. Very strong height falls are indicated as equally strong s/w energy tracking quickly se develops into a deep trough or cutoff low. This drive seems to be a result of equally strong height rises in an impressively building ridge over the wrn U.S. Even though the rapid height falls and incoming low are there, the atmosphere in our region is simply not showing any indications of moisture for these dynamics to work on. If precip were to occur on Sat night, it would certainly be snow for the nw 1/2 of CWA and a mix in the se. Likewise, if said precip continued on Sun it would be all snow with the intrusion of cold air underneath building low pressure. Attm, I would be best inclined to keep a threat of snow in the northern Scioto Valley/Hocking Hills on Sun. I surmise that the increased moisture/cloud cover noted is strictly based on the rapid cooling induced with these height falls. Unfortunately, this looks to me to be the crux of development with this prominent feature as there is not enough moisture to start with.

The trough will provide a break from the above normal temperatures for a few days, with below normal values returning to the region into early next week. Low temperatures are coldest Monday and Monday night.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Sfc winds will gust to 25kt this morning and early afternoon, with two exceptions at CVG and LUK where gusts will be closer to 20kt.

Any shower activity this morning will be minuscule and quite brief. Any passing showers will be out of the picture by 16-17Z, earlier at DAY where 14Z still looks pretty solid for a point going forward without precip.

Overnight, wind backs to south and decreases to around 5kt. Low cloud cover will have scattered out in the late evening, but the region should be capped with a bkn-ovc ci deck.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and thunderstorms are possible Thurs night. Gusts to 25-30kt behind a cold frontal passage early Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.