textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to trend higher with pops Friday into Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms will spread across the region Friday and continue into Saturday, with the potential for locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A series of mid level short waves will lift northeast across the region Friday into Saturday in persistent moist, southwest flow. This will result in the potential for locally heavy rainfall.

The initial wave will move across the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday, helping to lift a warm front up into our area later Friday afternoon into Friday night. Meanwhile, a 30-40 knot low level jet will spread northward into our area, providing sufficient lift over the front to produce widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Friday afternoon/night. While any instability will be mainly elevated, some weak surface based instability may make its way up toward the Ohio River late Friday afternoon/evening. With this being in the vicinity of the warm front, it will be tough to rule out a few rotating storms across our far south, with a low end potential for some damaging wind or even an isolated tornado. Otherwise, with PWs again pushing up toward 1.8 inches or so, locally heavy rainfall will be possible with stronger/training storms. With antecedent conditions more moist after the last few rounds of rain, flooding issues may become more of a concern as we head into Friday night.

The warm front will move off to our north through the day on Saturday with our area getting more into the warm sector. However, additional mid level short wave energy lifting northeast may allow for a secondary surface wave to develop along a weak cold front back to our west. With continued good southwest flow/moisture transport ahead of this, expect fairly widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity to linger into the day on Saturday. Various models are trying to pull some surface based instability up into our southeast through Saturday afternoon, but there is some uncertainty with this depending on clouds and pcpn coverage. If this does materialize, we could have at least a lower end severe threat for Saturday afternoon/evening. This would also lead to an increased potential for flooding as locally heavy rainfall would remain possible.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Generally VFR conditions are expected to continue through the evening before thickening low level moisture lowers cloud bases after midnight into the early morning hours. Based on LAMP probabilities, it appears ceilings may drop below 3,000 feet ahead of the rain. IFR ceilings are timed to commence with the rainfall Friday late morning into the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms are possible near the Cincinnati terminals Friday afternoon, but have kept these out of the TAFs for now due to timing and coverage uncertainty at this extended range.

Easterly winds will continue for much of the period before shifting southeasterly in the extended TAF period at CVG.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are likely into Saturday night with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.