textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Rain, possibly heavy, expected Sunday into Monday.
2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain, possibly heavy, expected Sunday into Monday.
Quiet conditions are expected Friday and Saturday, with surface high pressure over the area, although a few light showers could occur in the northern ILN CWA on Saturday. Attention will then turn to an upstream shortwave on Sunday, possibly with a weak surface low, which will move east into the northern Ohio Valley late Sunday into Sunday night. Theta-e advection ahead of this wave will bring an increase in moisture, with widespread precipitation expected to develop ahead of the wave. The most favorable timing for precipitation currently looks like late Sunday afternoon through the overnight hours. Some weak instability will be present, though the potential for strong to severe convection appears slim, owing to very marginal instability and moist-adiabatic sounding profiles. Nonetheless, a swath of heavy rain appears possible, so some threat for flooding may end up developing during this time frame.
Deeper moisture will gradually shift southward, with a cold front moving in behind the wave. It is not entirely clear how cleanly this cold front will make it through the CWA, but precipitation chances will be shifting southward by the daytime hours Monday, mainly impacting the southern portions of the forecast area.
KEY MESSAGE 2) Below normal temperatures are expected next week.
Behind the system on Monday, dry high pressure will move into the area, with temperatures remaining a little below normal. Chances for precipitation generally appear low through the rest of the week.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with the exception of some valley fog at KLUK. Otherwise, Friday will have some cumulus development, with WNW winds that may gust to around 20 knots during the afternoon.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon through Monday. MVFR conditions are possible on Monday as well.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.