textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Slight chance for flurries/snow showers today.

2) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak is expected for the region through the rest of the week, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Slight chance for flurries/snow showers today.

An upper level trough will swing through the region through this afternoon. Moisture is limited to mainly the low levels so expect just some flurries this morning. Low level lapse rates will steepen later this morning and into this afternoon. This may be enough to produce isolated to scattered snow showers, especially across northeast portions of our area where conditions will be somewhat more favorable.

2) A significant/prolonged arctic outbreak is expected for the region through the rest of the week, with periods of dangerous extreme cold. Outdoor exposure should be limited through Saturday.

Well below normal temperatures persist for the next 7 days thanks to repeated shots of arctic air and a deep snowpack. The longevity and magnitude of this pattern may rival some of the top-10 coldest, longest stretches on record across the Ohio Valley. The combination of brisk southwesterly winds from 15-20 mph and temperatures below zero will result in wind chills below 20F Monday night/Tuesday morning. Ambient temperatures multiple nights this week will be just as cold as Tuesday, however winds are not forecast to be as strong which results in slightly less severe wind chill values.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

An upper level trough will move across the region through this afternoon. This will lead to some light flurries or a few snow showers at times today with some periods of MVFR vsbys possible. Some MVFR cigs will also be possible through this afternoon, especially at the northern TAF sites. Skies will then clear heading into tonight with VFR conditions prevailing through the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034- 035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for KYZ089>100. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for KYZ089>100. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Storm Warning until noon EST today for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080. Cold Weather Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080. Extreme Cold Warning from 6 PM this evening to noon EST Tuesday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.