textproduct: Wilmington

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe weather potential has ended.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather for mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Unsettled weather for mid week.

Guidance suite continues to trend towards a deeper trough moving towards the area on Wednesday as the northern and southern streams phase. Some differences in timing of how the energy pivots across the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning and becomes negatively tilted off to the east.

There could be some showers and storms on Tuesday night into early Wednesday as a low level jet crosses the area. Higher chance of storms will occur as a cold front pushes through the region Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Probability of 1 inch or more of rainfall is 30 to 40 percent in the northwest part of the forecast area. Locations that received the heaviest rain this past week have probabilities less than 30 percent. Nonetheless, will continue to vigilantly monitor these more vulnerable area. The potential for severe storms has increase in most AI model probabilities and SPC already has the region in a Day 5 slight risk.

Tightening pressure gradient ahead of the cold front will result in gusty winds. In the warm sector, gusts can sometimes be limited, but probability of gusts 40 mph or greater are 40 to 50 percent. Probabilities of gusts that strong in the cold air advection in the wake of the front are only 20 percent.

As temperatures drop after the front passes, showers may mix with or change over to snow showers. Warm ground and marginal air temperatures should limit the potential for accumulations.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers will continue across the terminals for the beginning of the period with occasional MVFR conditions. Once the showers end, there is some potential for a brief period of gusts over 20 kt. A cold front will cross terminals between 01Z and 05Z. Any showers along that will be light, but MVFR ceilings are forecast to develop behind the front. MVFR ceilings will then persist well past 12Z before clearing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings possible Monday night into Tuesday night. MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts at or above 30 kt possible Wednesday. Thunderstorms possible Wednesday afternoon and night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

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