textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms expected at times from Thursday through Saturday with the potential for heavy rainfall and flooding as well as some severe weather.

2) Temperatures increasing going into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Active zonal pattern will be across the region over the next several days. With a frontal boundary also in the area, there will be periods of showers and storms.

Short wave will cross the region on Thursday. As this occurs, a cold front will move into the forecast area. This will lead to scattered to numerous storms in the afternoon and evening. Moderate instability will develop and sufficient bulk shear for stronger storms to form. These may be the most favorable conditions for severe storms through the end of the week.

The front will stall out across the southern part of the forecast area and then slowly start lifting north on Friday. At this point, mid level disturbances are forecast to be lower amplitude than the one on Thursday. Shear and instability will be somewhat less than the previous day. But moisture will be increasing. So the potential for strong storms will be lower but heavy rain will become more of a concern. This will even moreso heading into Friday night when precipitable water approaches two inches and warm cloud depths increase to 4 km making for efficient rainfall processes.

Similar conditions will continue into Saturday, although it becomes more uncertain where the front may be located which would serve as more of a focus for convection.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High confidence that a mid level high will spread northwards and extend from the Gulf coast to the Great Lakes for the early to mid part of next week. This will result in temperatures becoming hot. Although the forecast may be a shade on the high side, there will be the potential for heat indices to reach 100 or more from Monday into Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Fair weather flat cumulus clouds will dissipate quickly this evening. Expect a mid level clouds deck to overspread the area tonight with additional cumulus development on Thursday. Scattered storms to develop from northwest to southeast across the TAF sites Thursday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. Have handled this threat with a prob30 mention.

West winds at less than 10 kts will back southwesterly and become light overnight and then pick up to around 10kts Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible through Saturday. MVFR ceilings and visibility are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.