textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased snow chances for this afternoon into early evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers with embedded thunderstorms will taper off across our eastern areas through the pre-dawn hours. A cold front will move east across the area this morning, ushering in a much colder airmass.

2) Scattered snow showers are expected later today, potentially lingering into this evening. Although roads are expected to be mainly wet during the daytime, some isolated slick spots may develop after sunset with falling air and ground temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers with a fine line of embedded thunderstorms will affect eastern portions of our area over the next few hours. The severe threat should continue to decrease as the storms move into a less favorable thermodynamic environment. However, with the strong low level wind fields, a few strong to severe wind gusts will remain possible across our eastern area over the next couple of hours.

A strong cod front will move east across our area this morning with good CAA developing behind it. This will lead to falling temperatures today with late afternoon readings in the upper 20s to mid 30s. In the CAA, winds will gust in the 30 to 40 mph range through this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Steep low level lapse rates will develop through this afternoon with the snow squall parameter lighting up across our area this afternoon into early evening. This should allow for fairly widespread snow showers development as we head into this afternoon and some wrap around moisture works into our area so have bumped pops up into the high chance to likely category. Localized heavier snow showers will be capable of reducing visibilities at times. During the daytime period, expect any accumulations to be mainly on grassy and elevated surfaces with roads remaining mainly wet. However, as temperatures continue to fall and we head into the evening hours, some slick spots may begin to develop on area roadways.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The cold front is moving through central portions of our area attm and will be east of the area by 12Z. In the CAA behind the front, southwest to west winds will gust to around 35 knots through this afternoon. Scattered snow showers will also become more widespread as we progress through the day. MVFR cigs will prevail, but the snow showers will be capable of brief periods of IFR to LIFR vsby restrictions, mainly this afternoon. The snow shower activity will taper off through this evening but MVFR cigs will prevail through tonight. Winds will decrease somewhat heading into this evening but gusts to around 25 knots will still remain possible much of the night.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for OHZ026-034-035- 042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Wind Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for INZ050-058-059-066- 073>075-080.