textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm, humid, and breezy conditions with scattered showers and thunderstorms through Saturday.

2) Cold front crosses Saturday night bringing cool and dry conditions through Wednesday with frost possible Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A deepening low out in the Central Plains moves northeast through Saturday evening before eventually occluding and reaching the Great Lakes Saturday night. The Ohio Valley remains in the warm sector east of the low during this timeframe with warm, humid, breezy conditions persisting. Showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening during peak heating although organization and coverage should remain sporadic due to lack of forcing today. A strong wind gust or two cannot be ruled out if any stronger storms form.

For Saturday, conditions should remain mostly dry through the morning and early afternoon ahead of the low and associated cold front. Highs are likely to reach at least 80 for areas along and southeast of I-71 along with lower 60s dew points. However, by the late afternoon and early evening, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms exist just along and ahead of the cold front. Strengthening shear is also expected to arrive late in the day which could increase storm intensity/organization if instability and shear end up overlapping. Damaging straight line winds are the main threat along with some threat for large hail. A tornado risk may also increase if shear does end up overlapping storms a bit better late in the afternoon and early evening. Storm strength is expected to be maximized along and northwest of I-71 late afternoon/early evening before gradually decreasing late in the evening when instability weakens. The storm threat ends Saturday night after frontal passage.

KEY MESSAGE 2) High pressure builds into the Ohio Valley from the northwest after frontal passage and allows northerly flow to persist to start the week. Much cooler and drier conditions will be felt through Wednesday. Frost is possible Sunday night, Monday night, and Tuesday night depending on sky conditions and wind.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Still cannot rule out an isolated shower or thunderstorm at DAY/CMH/LCK, but have left out a mention in the TAF given the lower probability. Otherwise, the front to the north means surface winds remain out of the south overnight with prevailing VFR conditions.

Tomorrow, through the late morning and afternoon, a cold front approaches the region, increasing southerly winds with regular gusts between 25 to 30 knots. Some higher gusts will be possible in any thunderstorm/rain shower activity. For now, have timed out possible thunderstorm activity with a Prob30 with a line of storms moving from west to east tomorrow afternoon and evening. Periods of light rain may follow the thunderstorms for a couple of hours.

As the front moves through after 00Z, expect a wind shift out of the west with gusts between 20 to 25 knots.

OUTLOOK...No significant restrictions expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.