textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Below normal temperatures are expected through the upcoming weekend, with mainly dry conditions for the Ohio Valley. A slow warming trend is expected thereafter, with much above normal temperatures by midweek of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

The thin band of light snow along the front continues to drift off to the S of the local area, with patchy freezing drizzle trailing within the post-frontal environment for a span of about 1-2 hours. The combination of light snow accumulation (with some melting/re- freezing) and patchy freezing drizzle has led to the development of some icy spots in the local area this morning. Although the bulk of the pcpn will come to an end by daybreak, residual moisture/ice will pose a problem on untreated surfaces as air temps dip into the teens (near/N of I-70) and lower/mid 20s (near/S of the OH Rvr) through the morning commute. As such, despite the trend toward drier conditions (i.e. no more pcpn falling from the sky), will highlight the potential for icy/challenging travel conditions through the morning commute with an SPS through 14z.

Temps will plateau through mid-morning before nudging up a few degrees once again by early afternoon. The diurnal rebound for this afternoon from morning lows will generally be on the order of 5-7 degrees, even with quite some filtered sunshine this morning through early afternoon.

Wind will become light/VRB into this afternoon with additional cloud cover overspreading the area by mid afternoon into this evening as another weak disturbance quickly traverses the region. Some additional light snow or flurries will be possible in far nrn/NE parts of the local area (from west-central through central OH) where moisture depth will be greatest before it drifts away from the region by midnight. However, accumulations should be minor (only a few tenths of an inch) even in these areas.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/

Sfc high pressure will drift into the region tonight into Friday as a system tracks E across the nrn TN Vly. Ensemble guidance suggests this system should stay to the S of the area into Friday night, with dry conditions being maintained locally as it does so.

Temps tonight will dip into the upper teens in the N to the mid/upper 20s near/S of the OH Rvr. Highs on Friday will reach into the mid 20s N of I-70 to the upper 30s S of the OH Rvr amidst a mix of sun and clouds.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Low pressure will move across the Deep South Friday night into Saturday, with associated precipitation generally staying to our south based on the latest guidance. There are a couple of MPAS runs which bring cold rain or perhaps light wintry precipitation as far north as northeast Kentucky, but the majority of available models keep our CWA dry. Surface high pressure will build into the middle Ohio Valley the rest of the weekend, offering below normal temperatures.

The pattern begins to change heading into next week as the high exits to the east. This will bring warmer temperatures and southerly flow starting Monday and continuing through the end of the extended period Wednesday. Highs will rise into the 40s Monday and upper 40s to lower 50s Tuesday and Wednesday. While lower confidence at this time range, we will start to see a chance of rain by midweek as the moist southwest flow continues.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Conditions are improving quickly for the local sites for the beginning of the TAF period with pcpn ending and a clearing line working N to S through the local area. Nrn sites of KDAY/KCMH/KLCK/KILN have already trended clear, with an expectation for a return to VFR/mostly clear skies area-wide by 13z.

Mid clouds will overspread the region by 18z, with 5-8kft CIGs arriving/developing by 00z once again. Some brief light SN will be possible at KCMH/KLCK between 22z-02z, but confidence was not yet high enough to include a TEMPO. Instead, went with a PROB30 to highlight potential for these terminals.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.