textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and some thunderstorms will occur into tonight.

2) Hot and humid next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) MCV moving into southern Illinois will continue eastwards across Kentucky this evening into the overnight. Convection on the northern periphery of this feature will spread into southern counties late this afternoon and continue into the evening, slowly weakening as diurnal cooling gradually occurs. There is an axis of DCAPE around 800 J/kg just ahead of this band. So, there is some potential for gusty winds into the early evening with any storms, but the possibility of a severe storm is very low. Locally heavy rainfall from very efficient storms will continue to be a concern with precipitable water around 1.8 inches and a deep warm cloud layer. It seems like this will be progressive enough to keep flooding potential isolated.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Broad, anomalously strong mid level ridge, peaking over 2 sigma, will extend across the Ohio Valley, and then some, Monday through Thursday. As has been well advertised, it will be hot and humid as a result. Heat advisory conditions may develop near and west of I-75 on Monday. Will almost certainly exceed the heat advisory threshold Tuesday through Thursday. Most likely that will continue into Friday, although the ridge may start to get suppressed southward by then. Probability of meeting or exceeding the extreme heat warning threshold of 105 peaks on Thursday around 35 percent near and south of the Ohio River. Over time, there could eventually be some isolated diurnal convection, but coverage should be limited enough to have no effect on the maximum heat index for any particular day. The ridge will get suppressed substantially on Saturday as a strong short wave moves from the Great Lakes into New England which will bring an increase chance of convection and temperatures that are not quite so hot.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mostly VFR ceilings in play across much of the local airspace, but seeing some MVFR cloud decks where showers are located. A larger complex of showers and storms continues to move east across western and central KY, with storms on the northern edge getting into N KY and SE IN. Introduced TEMPOs for CVG/LUK this evening. Farther north, scattered showers continue drifting northeast along a couple of lingering boundaries. DAY seeing rain currently with coverage more spotty and potentially lasting a tad longer toward CMH/LCK.

Given abundant low level moisture in place tonight and Sunday, expect IFR ceilings tonight into Sunday morning. Still some uncertainty as to how ceilings evolve Sunday, but at least MVFR ceilings look to hold through the morning before returning to low-end VFR Sunday afternoon.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR visibilities possible Sunday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.