textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A slow moving front and low level moisture will lead to areas of dense fog this morning. Low pressure and another cold front will move through tonight into Sunday morning. Considerably colder air will move into the region with rain changing to snow Sunday. A chance for snow will continue into Monday bringing the potential for the first light snow accumulations of the season.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

6:15 AM update... Drier air has slowly advected into the western portion of the dense fog advisory. This has resulted in an improvement to the widespread dense fog. Therefore, have removed a tier of counties across the west from the dense fog advisory.

Previous discussion... In between systems today with mid level energy and robust short wave digging southeast from the northern Plains into the Mid MS River Valley by evening. Ahead of this system - weak low level flow, stalled front, and abundant low moisture has led to the development of areas of fog. Dense fog was reported generally along and east of I-71. The fog is affecting travel - so have continued a dense fog advisory until mid morning.

After the fog and stratus improves this morning expect WAA mid and high level clouds to pivot thru the area ahead of the next system. High temperatures to range from the lower 50s north to the lower 60s south.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/

A short wave over the Mid MS River Valley head more east tonight across the Ohio Valley. A compact surface low will track along a stalled east-west front, with the model solutions continuing to take this low from east central Indiana acrs central Ohio overnight.

Expect widespread rain along and north of the low track. Lessor chances of rain further south along the trailing cold front. Lows tonight range from the mid 30s northwest to the lower 40s southeast.

Short wave and associated surface low may still be near central Ohio Sunday morning will quickly move off to the east. Lingering system pcpn looks to end thru the morning. Early highs drop as low level CAA develops. Rain will likely mix with and chance to snow across the north prior to diminishing. Flow off the lakes and low level CAA will likely lead to showers into the afternoon with a mix and change over to snow across all but the far southeast. Due to a warm ground and daytime temperatures falling into the mid and upper 30s - do not expect much in any accumulation thru the afternoon.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mid-level low will dig south from the Upper Midwest into the Lower Ohio Valley Sunday night, then further southeast into the Tennessee Valley on Monday. Very cold temperatures aloft will follow the path of the closed low center, with shallow instability represented on CWA forecast soundings on Monday. This will likely bring periods of snow showers. Can't rule out minor/temporary accumulations Sunday night... however solar insolation and lingering warm ground temperatures will keep this from occurring to any significant extent during the daytime hours on Monday.

Temperatures will be well below normal Sunday night through Monday night, with a hard freeze occurring both nights. Gusty northwest winds will produce apparent temperatures in the teens at night and in the 20s Monday and most of Tuesday.

The upper low will begin to pull away to the east toward midweek, allowing highs to return to around 40 on Tuesday and the 50s on Wednesday through Friday. We will likely see a decreasing trend in sky cover starting Wednesday.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Weak low level flow, stalled front, and abundant low moisture has led to the development of areas of fog and stratus. Low IFR conditions with dense fog and stratus was reported at KLUK, KILN, KCMH, and KLCK - with MVFR conditions at KCVG. Drier air was keeping KDAY VFR. Expect these conditions to improvement thru mid morning with sunshine and continued advection of some drier air.

After the fog and stratus improves this morning expect WAA mid and high level clouds to pivot thru the area ahead of the next system.

Rain to move into the region late tonight ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Have a mention of light rain after 08Z into the west with MVFR ceilings and visibilities developing late and overspreading all TAF sites early Sunday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are likely Sunday with IFR ceilings possible. MVFR ceilings will likely linger into Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ055-056-064- 065-073-074-079>082-088. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ094>100. IN...None.