textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued to tweak todays high temperatures slightly cooler from blended solution. Increased wind gusts this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening.

1) Above normal temperatures persist today. A cold front passes thru the Ohio Valley tonight, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A mid level shortwave and 5H 75-80KT jet pivots from the Upper MS Valley thru the Great Lakes today. An associated surface cold front tracks southeast across ILN/s area tonight. Shower and thunderstorms develop ahead of this front with a chance for strong to severe storms this afternoon into the evening. The most favored timing for severe storms is from 20Z-06z, though marginal confidence continues regarding onset time due to spread in model solutions.

Moderately unstable environment develops with SBCAPE values around 2500 J/Kg ahead of the slowly advancing cold front. Forecast soundings indicate unidirectional wind flow with effective shear of 20 to 25 kts and DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/KG. So expect sufficient shear will be present for organized storms with the potential for strong to severe wind gusts as the primary threat. Hail will also be possible within the strongest storms, with this most favored area over the west. The severe threat decreases southeast due to the likelihood for storms to arrive later in the evening as instability decreases.

PWATs increase to 1.6 to 1.8 inches which will offer heavy rain rates and the potential for localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist today ahead of a cold front that passes through the area late tonight. High temperatures are expected to range from the mid-upper 80s west to around 90 in the east. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated in the wake of the front, along with any lingering showers and thunderstorms. Highs are expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast.

Cool temperatures linger into Thursday. Temperatures climb back to near normal Friday and then above normal this weekend. With the increase in temperatures and moisture, unsettled weather will return for the weekend.

AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A few lingering showers may affect the TAF from a VFR cloud deck this morning and any visibility impacts will be brief MVFR restrictions. Otherwise, there will just be mid and high clouds.

Few to scattered cumulus will develop with heating today. Additional storms are expected to develop late this afternoon into tonight. A fair bit of uncertainty continues to exist regarding onset of the storms. Most favored timeframe is after 20Z. Have a mention of thunderstorms into the overnight hours ahead of a slow moving cold front. The front passes thru the TAF sites late tonight with a wind shift to the northwest. There is a good signal for low ceilings behind this front. Have widespread ceilings dropping to MVFR but a period of IFR is possible.

Southerly winds will increase with gusts around 25 kts this afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 kts shift to the northwest late with the frontal passage.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Wednesday morning and then again Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.