textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Reduced precip chances slightly for the weekend system. No other significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A return to cooler temperatures today and Thursday.

2) Another warmup for the weekend along with a chance for rain for parts of the region. Much above normal temperatures for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A return to cooler temperatures today and Thursday.

NW flow continues behind the departing cold front, along with a return to temperatures near to slightly below normal. The southern half of the forecast area lost a lot of the snowpack with Tuesday's warmth, but any additional melting should be slow to occur with expected low clouds and cooler temperatures today. NW winds will gust to near 20 to 25 mph today in the tight gradient behind the departing frontal boundary, then relax a bit by evening. Similar daytime highs of low 30s to low 40s for Thursday, with lows near 20.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Another warmup for the weekend along with a chance for rain for parts of the region. Much above normal temperatures for early next week.

Friday will begin a longer duration warmup, with perhaps slightly more clarity for the deepening upper trough and associated surface low to traverse through the southern Ohio Valley into the Tennessee Valley region. Ensemble solutions for the track of the low and northern extent of the associated precipitation is trending toward a more southerly solution, the bulk of which should remain more focused just south of the area for Saturday night through Sunday.

While northern Kentucky and south central Ohio have the greatest chance of measurable rainfall, the probability of greater than 0.50 inch of rain continues to diminish. This combined with very little remaining snowpack over the southern forecast area allows for increasing confidence that flood issues should remain further south.

Above normal temperatures remain in place over the region especially as the workweek begins, with increasing probability of daytime highs above 50 across the south beginning Monday, becoming likely across the entire area for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Some uncertainty in the near term with just how far west the persistent stratus will linger. Have removed MVFR CIGs at KCVG/KLUK, now leaving it to scattered. With no stratus over these area, seeing MVFR visibility in some locations, so brought that in for KLUK. Further east toward KCMH/KLCK, MVFR stratus more likely to linger there.

Gusty winds to 25kts today in the gradient behind the frontal passage, with winds slacking off by evening and the surface high pressure becomes more centered over the area. With winds going light and mostly clear skies, have brought in MVFR visibilities for KILN/KCVG/KLUK and even KDAY with all the recently melted snow making for wet surface conditions. Confidence pretty low in IFR vsbys, but with KLUK being the best chance. For now, handled this via a tempo 2 SM, but will have to monitor for the potential for IFR.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.