textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

KEY MESSAGE 1) A weak disturbance will bring light snow to parts of the middle Ohio Valley this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A slow warming trend will commence heading into the latter half of the week. Light rain is possible on Thursday before dry conditions are maintained into the start of the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A weakening mid level short wave will move across the southern Great Lakes today. The 00Z models have generally trended a bit weaker with this system. Precipitation associated with this system is moving into western Indiana early this morning and will continue to work east into our area toward daybreak. However, this is moving into a drier airmass so not sure how much of this will hold together as it moves in. Will generally allow some 20-30 pops across the west toward sunrise and then slowly taper pops off through early afternoon as it moves east into central portions of our area. Thermal profiles suggest that any pcpn will remain mainly all snow through the morning hours, but do not expect much if any in the way of accumulation.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Mid level ridging will build into the region from the west through the end of the week, leading to a warming trend. Another weak mid level short wave will drop down across the Great Lakes on Thursday, bringing some lower end chances for light rain to our area.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A weak mid level short wave will move across the southern Great Lakes today. Pcpn associated with this across the western Great Lakes attm will spread east into our area through mid to late morning. However, this will be moving into a drier airmass, so any pcpn will be light and generally affect western portions of our area in the 12Z-16Z time frame. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs possible Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.