textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will offer a chance for rain and snow today and tonight. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue through the majority of next week, with multiple systems impacting the region during the mid to late week period.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

The ILN fa remains in a WAA regime today, resulting in a surge of relatively warmer air in the lower levels. This will alter the thermal profiles aloft and impact the p-type being observed where pcpn falls today.

Bufkit soundings continue to show the potential for patchy freezing drizzle early this morning. However, coverage will likely be very limited, and currently there aren't many obs west of our fa showing this weather type. Not anticipating many impacts if this does occur given the isolated nature of this potential. Locations farther south may observe drizzle as well, but freezing drizzle less likely down near the OH River as surface temps quickly warm up after sunrise.

As the column continues to saturate, snow potential will increase, mainly for counties along/north of I-70. Forcing remains quite weak with this system in our CWA however, which is keeping PoPs relatively low. Still maintaining that Mercer, Auglaize and Hardin counties have the best chance for some accumulating snowfall. Any snowfall that does occur for areas along/north of I-70 should have limited travel impacts given that pavement temps will be quite warm during the day. Thus, any snow accumulations will primarily be on grassy/elevated surfaces.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/

Biggest uncertainty with this system will be how much pcpn lingers on the back end. Several CAMs continue to highlight pcpn lingering much longer now into the overnight hours and perhaps even into Monday morning. If this were to occur, rain would eventually transition to snow as thermal profiles cool given the CAA behind the front. Snow potential would be highest in southern OH/IN and northern KY, but there could be light snowfall as far north as I-70. Some accumulations are possible in our far southern counties, primarily along/south of the Ohio River. If this scenario where to play out, some snow could certainly stick to the roadways and impact the morning commute Monday, but in general, any impacts expected to be fairly minimal. Probabilities are extremely low for accumulations greater than 1" in our south, but a few tenths of an inch are not entirely out of the question. Will have to continue to monitor trends with this potential.

Any lingering snow will eventually taper off Monday morning as the cold front surges south and high pressure builds in. Highs will continue to trend below seasonal normals in the middle 20s to middle 30s.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Broad surface high will be moving off to the east at the start of the period; though quiet conditions will result in Monday's overnight low temperatures falling into the teens to low 20s.

Behind the high, two fast moving Clipper systems race toward the Great Lakes region. The first of the two moves through Monday night/Tuesday with the majority of guidance keeping the track of this system well north of our area. Trends have shifted moisture content north as well, resulting in a dry forecast for our area. The pressure gradient tightens with the passage of this feature, resulting in some breezy conditions at the surface, particularly north of I-70 throughout the day on Tuesday.

The second Clipper-esq system Tuesday night/ Wednesday will be a bit more robust, as guidance suggests it deepening as it digs into the larger flow over the Great Lakes. A pretty potent LLJ and tightened gradient will also move through the region with this wave, resulting in gusty conditions on Wednesday (gust to 30-35 MPH or so possible). Guidance continues to shift the track of this system farther north as well, placing the ILN CWA more comfortably in the warm sector, resulting in a more rain solution across the region Wednesday daytime. However, cannot rule out some snow showers on the back end of the system with any lingering wrap around moisture sometime Wednesday night into Thursday.

The end of the week, guidance gets a bit more convoluted as additional shortwaves are forecast to move through the region, bringing continued chances for precipitation. Despite details on precip and precip type being scarce, there is a decent signal for stronger cold air advection to move back into the region, resulting in temperatures falling well below seasonal normals.

AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR CIGs will persist at the beginning of the taf period, with some improvement occurring in our southern terminals near sunrise in the WAA regime. However, MVFR CIGs are more likely to linger across KCMH/KLCK and KDAY through the daytime hours. Elsewhere, there will likely be a period of VFR conditions before the cold front begins to move south during the afternoon and deteriorate conditions again.

Some MVFR vsbys being observed early this morning, so included that for some of the terminals. Removed mention of FZDZ for this morning given low confidence in occurrence and coverage. Obs sites to the west still not observing any FZDZ, but will continue to monitor and add it back in if confidence increases.

Pcpn coverage expected to be minimal across the terminals during the daytime hours. Best chance for pcpn will be along/north of I-70 ahead of the cold front. However, there is an increasing signal for pcpn coverage to increase tonight behind the front. KCVG/KLUK and KILN would have the best chances for pcpn tonight, which would start as RA before transitioning to SN. However, light snow could perhaps reach our northern terminals as well for a brief period. Immediately behind the cold front will also be the best chance for IFR CIGs.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs likely Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty winds possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.