textproduct: Wilmington

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence on fog has decreased

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry conditions today. Showers and thunderstorms return midweek as a cold front moves through the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Clouds have been persistent across southern and eastern parts of the area, occasionally clearing but then redeveloping. These should diminish towards sunrise. Visibilities have been dropping in the southeast part of the area whenever clouds decrease but then pop back up when clouds return. With late clearing, there will only be a narrow window for more widespread fog formation. Beyond that, it will finally be a dry day as high pressure builds in.

As a long wave trough slowly moves across eastern Canada, a series of short waves will move through the base of the long wave and pass across the region Wednesday into Thursday. At the same time, an east-west oriented cold front will sag through the forecast area Wednesday night. This will all come together to bring more showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and night. And some post- frontal showers will still occur on Thursday. Precipitable water is forecast to increase to around 1.7 to 1.8 in and warm cloud depth does eventually increase to around 4 km. These more favorable parameters will be rather transient, so cannot rule out some locally heavier rain in any storms, but that should not be focused on any one area or be persistent.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Clouds in the 4-6kt range are lingering across the region. They should be decreasing towards 12Z. This will allow a narrow window for fog to develop, particularly at KLUK. Any visibility restrictions should diminish by 14Z. A scattered to broken deck of cumulus is forecast to develop with heating and then dissipate late in the day. Any ceilings will be VFR.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Wednesday into Wednesday night and then again Saturday afternoon. MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities possible Wednesday night into Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.

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