textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will offer dry conditions through the weekend, with temperatures remaining below normal. A warming trend is then expected next week, with temperatures rising above normal, and increasing chances for rain by the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/

Northwest flow aloft with a wedge of surface high pressure providing dry conditions overnight. Latest satellite imagery shows considerable cloudiness across the area with a system moving through the TN Valley and another one moving through the northern Great Lakes. As these systems shift east - some clearing will begin tonight - expect across the northeast where clouds will likely linger. This will allow temperatures to drop to lows ranging from the teens north to the lower 20s south.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Northwest flow aloft will continue through the short term period. Surface high pressure builds across the area Sunday with another shortwave tracking thru Great Lakes Sunday night into early Monday.

Dry weather conditions continue with more in way of sunshine across the southwest Sunday. High temperatures range from the upper 20s north-northeast (where more clouds linger) to the upper 30s south (where more sun is observed). Lows Sunday night range from the lower 20s north to the upper 20s south.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

By Monday morning, the surface high pressure that has been the dominant driver of our sensible weather will be shunted east and strong return flow will be in place. We begin a warming trend that will persist through the working week and temperatures are forecast to rise well above climatological normals (normals for this time of year ~ max T around 40 degrees, min T around 25 degrees). In addition to warming temperatures, there are several chances for precipitation this coming week.

The first of which will be a shortwave with an associated surface disturbance moving out of the Four Corners region. This system will continue to deepen/develop as it progresses eastward, though it won't quite be mature by the time it reaches us. Deepest moisture and center of the surface low appears to remain to our north, which is where the bulk of the precipitation should fall. However, as a weak trailing cold front moves across our CWA, we may see some light rain showers Tuesday night/early Wednesday. Given the weak cold front, we won't notice too many changes to our temperatures, though there may be a subtle drop in dew points/moisture on Wednesday.

A more impactful (more southerly located) system will begin to usher ample amounts of warm, moist Gulf Coast air up into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. In fact, early guidance suggests PWATs associated with this system may be northward of 200% of normal. As the warm front of this system lifts through our region, precipitation chances increase along with temperatures. Still a bit of a ways out to pinpoint where the warm sector of this system will dominate the longest/ where the warmest temperatures will be (over our area? farther east toward the Appalachians?). Either way, we'll definitely be warmer than average Thursday into Friday prior to the cold front passage.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will start out the TAF period. There are some returns showing up on radar, however looking at TDWRs and observations, very little if of the precipitation is reaching the ground and therefore kept any mention of precipitation out of the TAF sites. There will be the potential for some lower clouds to bring MVFR conditions to the region late in the overnight hours and into the morning daytime hours on Sunday. Confidence in this occurring is highest at KCMH and KLCK and therefore only included at those two area TAF sites. Conditions will return to VFR as the day progresses on Sunday. Winds will be light through the TAF period and less than 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...Some MVFR CIGs will be possible Tuesday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.