textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered precipitation chances for today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) There will be a chance for showers and thunderstorms today. Well above normal will continue through Friday.

2) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid level trough axis will progress east across the Ohio Valley through tonight. An axis of widespread showers and thunderstorms in association with this currently across Illinois and western Indiana will push slowly east through the morning hours. However, with a less unstable airmass across our area, expect these to weaken and begin to dissipate as they move east into our area later this morning. As a result, will just allow for some lower end chance pops across mainly our west later this morning.

We will begin to destabilize again through the afternoon hours and this will allow for some scattered redevelopment along and ahead of the trough axis. The best chance for this appears to be across our eastern areas during the mid to late afternoon hours. Will go ahead and range pops this afternoon from 40-50 percent in the east to 20 percent across the west. With the better instability and forcing shifting off to our east through the afternoon, expect any severe threat across our east to be limited.

Mid level ridging will move east across the region on Friday, leading to mainly dry conditions and a continuation of well above normal temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Mid and upper level troughing over the central CONUS will shift east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region through the weekend. This will help push a strong cold front east across our area on Saturday with widespread showers and thunderstorms expected. There are some timing differences between the models with the front on Saturday and this will help determine how much we are able to destabilize through the day. Given the strong forcing, there will at least be a low end threat for severe weather on Saturday but the overall threat will be dependent on the timing of the front and how well we are able to destabilize. As of now, it would seem the best severe threat would be across our eastern areas.

Strong CAA behind the front will usher in a much cooler airmass to start next week. Highs Sunday and Monday will only be in the 50s to possibly lower 60s.

AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

A mid level short wave will move east across the Ohio Valley today. This will lead to a chance for showers late this morning and then scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The best chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will be along and southeast of the I-71 corridor. VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.