textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat advisory issued for west central Ohio.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to weaken as they move across the area early this morning. There remains some potential for a heavy rain threat in parts of southeast Indiana and northern Kentucky that could lead to flash flooding.

2) Hot and humid conditions will occur today and Thursday.

3) A cold front will move through the area on Friday with a second cold front moving through on Sunday. It will become cooler and less humid early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) MCS is weakening as it continues to work across the forecast area in the overnight hours. The exception is across southeast Indiana where a northwest-southeast oriented tail has maintained robust convection. It is not clear whether there will be any redevelopment as the stronger cells move southeast. Until this becomes better resolved, will keep the flood watch as is.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Humid air mass will remain in place. There will be a decrease in cloud cover this afternoon which will allow temperatures to rise into the upper 80s. A pocket of slightly warmer 850 mb temperatures is forecast to move across west central Ohio today, so highs could get to 90 there. Temperatures are forecast to be very similar on Thursday. The heat index will range from 95 to 100 both days. In coordination with surrounding offices have issued a heat advisory for west central Ohio for today where there is a somewhat better probability of reaching a heat index of 100.

KEY MESSAGE 3) A cold front will approach the region late Thursday night and may even get into northwest counties before daybreak Friday. Convection that will occur along the front well west of the area during the afternoon and evening will most likely have weakened substantially if not completely dissipated by the time the front arrives in the forecast area. However, it is not completely out of the realm of possibilities that a few stronger storms gets this far east late Thursday night, and if that would happen then there could be a strong to damaging wind gust.

With daytime heating on Friday, there will be convective redevelopment along the front. Whether that occurs from central Ohio into northeast Kentucky or whether that occurs after the front is east of the forecast area is still a bit uncertain. Convection is expected to become robust, so there could be some potential for severe storms.

In the wake of the front, a less humid air mass will spread into the area for Saturday. But moisture will quickly return Saturday night. Another cold front will move through on Sunday with more showers and storms. It will then become cooler and less humid for early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Showers across the area at the start of the TAF period will move east within the first few hours. Conditions may pop back up to VFR for an hour or two after the showers end, but then MVFR ceilings will prevail until after 15Z. Clouds will then scatter by 18Z with VFR through the rest of the TAF period. South winds will become southwest at 10 to 15 kt during the day and then back and slightly decrease after 00Z.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms possible Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ026- 034-035. KY...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for KYZ089-090-094-095. IN...Flood Watch until noon EDT today for INZ080.