textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Guidance appears confident in a band of snow which will produce travel impacts somewhere from southeast IN and northern KY through south-central OH and northeast KY. Have issued an advisory for this. It is possible that heavier amounts (3-5") could occur in a localized band once things set up. Will need to continue to monitor for further updates.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Accumulating snow across southeast Indiana, southern Ohio, and northern Kentucky Tuesday into Tuesday evening leading to impacts on the evening commute.

3) Clipper moving across the area Friday with light snow accumulations possible and frigid temperatures to start the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) As is often the case with frontegenetic-forced snow, guidance is producing a general accumulation on Tuesday across a broad area but is hinting at the potential for more significant snow along a narrow band within that area. Each of the high-resolution models paints a slightly different picture as to the locations with the highest potential for these significant accumulations. Based on collaboration with neighboring office and WPC, have continued the 1-3 inch forecast on Tuesday and added wording into the initial winter weather advisory for locally higher amounts. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few reports in the 3-5 inch range somewhere within the advisory area. Winds will be light so blowing and drifting of new snowfall is not expected. Start time of the snow will likely be around the morning commute for those in the west (with travel impacts possible) with an end time Tuesday evening for south-central OH into northeast KY. For this cycle, have kept the rain-snow line south of our CWA based on p-type analysis in the high-resolution model set.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Guidance has trended further north with a potent clipper system dropping southeast into the Great Lakes on Friday. Snowfall potential is still uncertain as latest runs only bring precipitation through central Ohio... leaving the Tri-State region dry. However, confidence is high that frigid temperatures will build into our area Friday night into the weekend behind the cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR cigs will prevail through the night. A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley on Tuesday with snow developing west to east across the area after sunrise and then continuing through much of the afternoon. This will lead to IFR cigs and vsbys at the southern TAFs with some VLIFR condition possible at times. Coverage along and north of I-70 will be less so have not hit the northern TAF sites quite as hard. Snow will taper off heading into Tuesday evening with MVFR cigs persisting through the rest of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR CIGs will linger into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for OHZ070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for KYZ089>100. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for INZ066- 073>075-080.