textproduct: Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No significant changes to the previous forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area on Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1) A mid/upper level trough will move east into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region over the weekend. Models have trended a bit faster with the associated cold front that will push across the area on Saturday. Southerly flow ahead of the front will help us destabilize through the afternoon, but with the somewhat faster timing, the better instabilities will be across central/eastern Ohio through Saturday afternoon.
A weakening area of showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely move into western portions of our area late tonight into Saturday morning. The storms will then begin to become more organized as they move into the more favorable airmass across our eastern areas heading into Saturday afternoon. Some strong to severe storms will be possible during the afternoon across mainly our eastern areas but the overall threat will be dependent on the exact timing of the front. Damaging winds will be the primary severe weather threat.
Strong CAA will develop behind the front later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will usher in a much cooler airmass to start the upcoming week, with highs on Sunday and Monday generally in the 50s. Sunday night will be the coldest night as temperatures drop into the low to mid 30s,leading to the potential for some frost/freeze conditions.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Some areas of mainly MVFR fog have developed this morning. This may affect KLUK for the first hour or so of the TAF period before dissipating. Otherwise, expect mainly just some high level clouds at times into this afternoon.
A cold front will approach from the west tonight and then push east across the area through Saturday morning. Southerly flow ahead of the front will lead to widespread showers along with a chance of thunderstorms. More widespread showers and embedded thunderstoms will push across the region on Tuesday.
OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms likely Saturday morning and afternoon.
ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.
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