textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Adjusted snow totals downward for Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Chances for light precipitation tonight and again Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A strengthening low level jet will develop tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the northwest. In developing weak isentropic lift, some light precipitation will develop across our north, mainly toward/after midnight. This pcpn will then shift southeast through the early morning hours on Wednesday. Thermal profiles are marginal for rain vs snow, with ptype trending more toward snow in our northeast and rain in our southwest. Any QPF values will be on the light side though and with surface temperatures remaining near or just above freezing, do not anticipate much in the way of any problems.

A mid level short wave will move across the Ohio Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. There remains a fair amount of spread in the models with timing/strength and placement of this feature. The 12Z operational NAM is fairly weak and generates little in the way of pcpn, while most of the CAMs also appear fairly weak and have trended somewhat farther south, bringing the best chance of pcpn into our southern areas, while the GFS remains somewhat farther north and a bit stronger. Will generally take a blend of these solutions, and trend toward the GFS/ECMWF ensemble means, but confidence is not terribly high.

Ptype will also be an issue as it looks like pcpn will be mainly snow in our north, trending to a rain/snow mix to rain across our south. As a result, there is some uncertainty with snow amounts but based on the forecast trends, have shifted the axis of snow southward and backed off on amounts somewhat. It appears the best chance for accumulations will likely be south of I-70 and north of the Ohio River, but think any accums will generally be an inch or less.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mid clouds continue to overspread the region ahead of a front, which will move progressively from NW to SE through the area between 06z-12z. Accompanying the front will be a narrow band of light pcpn, with SN expected for at least a brief period at KCMH/KLCK, with a mix of RA/SN favored for SW terminals. The SN will bring some MVFR conditions to KCMH/KLCK, with MVFR CIGs lingering at these sites for several hours after the pcpn ends.

The pcpn may be accompanied by some brief MVFR VSBYs, depending on the intensity and p-type at each location. But conditions should return VFR at all terminals by 15z as skies scatter out from W to E into late morning/afternoon.

The other item of interest is going to be the expectation for SW LLWS on the order of 45-55kts between about 00z-10z, with strongest and most prolonged LLWS expected for SW sites of KCVG/KLUK. Additionally, SW winds of 15-20kts, with gusts around 25-30kts, will evolve during this time period before decreasing briefly between 10z-15z. Winds will go more out of the W at 15-20kts, with gusts of 25-30kts, once again past 15z until sunset.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.