textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm conditions today, are briefly interrupted late Friday into Saturday with the passage of a weak cold front, which will bring some precipitation to the area. Warm temperatures re-develop Sunday through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Southerly flow and warm conditions will be observed today ahead of a cold front that slips into northern Ohio and stalls parallel to the westerly mid level flow. It is not out of the question that a few light showers could make it as far south as ILN/s northern counties late in the day. Highs top out in the mid and upper 70s today - which look to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. In the well mixed boundary layer southwest winds to gust to 25 to 30 mph this afternoon.

Mid level energy passing thru the Great Lakes will lead to the development of a weak surface low with a trailing weak front passing thru ILN/s area Friday into Friday night. Southwest low level flow ahead of this front will lead to an increase in moisture with marginal instability developing. Have a slight chance mention of thunder due to this limited instability. Hazardous weather continues to look unlikely.

Surface high pressure will build into the Great Lakes in the wake of the front Friday night into Saturday. This high will offer dry and cooler weather Saturday - with highs ranging from the lower 60s north to the lower 70s south.

Mid level flow amplifies with a mean ridge developing over the eastern CONUS. A prolonged period of southerly to southwesterly flow is expected for several days, bringing highs into the 80s.

There is high confidence in this period of warm temperatures. Considerably lower confidence exists regarding rain timing and chances thru this period. It does look like a threat for showers and storms will exist beginning Monday and beyond as waves track around the periphery of the mid level ridge but specific details are somewhat uncertain at this time.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Any precipitation that may develop later in the afternoon will stay north of the TAF sites. Some high level clouds will move across the TAF sites at times through the TAF period. Also, a few cumulus clouds will be likely during afternoon. There will be the potential for a period of LLWS early this morning at KCVG, KLUK, and KDAY. Surface winds will increase this afternoon with gusts up to 25 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Friday afternoon into Friday night and then again on Monday. Wind gusts around 30 knots possible on Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.