textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Added a new section for the separate system moving through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms will occur Monday evening and into the overnight ahead of a cold front. While details remain uncertain, some strong to severe thunderstorms may occur during the evening hours.

2) A cold front moves into the area early Tuesday, followed by a low pressure Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Confidence remains high that dry conditions will prevail through today and through nearly the entire day on Monday. There is high confidence that severe thunderstorms developing over Illinois and Indiana Monday afternoon will eventually move toward eastern/southeastern Indiana into southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. What remains quite uncertain is the overall organization and intensity of the remnant thunderstorms as they move into the local area.

Forecast soundings show that while mid-level lapse rates will support continued updrafts, low level convective inhibition will be strengthening quite significantly during the late evening hours. Therefore, any ongoing organized thunderstorm complex would likely begin to become more disorganized and therefore weaker as it moved into the local area. Overall, the SPC Severe Weather Outlook remains similar to the previously issued one, painting southwest portions of the area with a level 2 of 5 threat. Damaging winds remain the greatest threat.

Even as the threat for severe thunderstorm decreases, there will likely be a large shield of stratiform rain stretching northward across the entire area. This clears by Tuesday morning as the first of two shortwaves moves through.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Even with the rain clearing the area Tuesday morning, the surface cold front is expected to stall later in the afternoon. Depending on how quickly surface heating can take place, some redevelopment of thunderstorms is possible along the front across portions of southern Ohio and northeast Kentucky. The lack of broader synoptic lift across the region would inhibit widespread development.

This changes later in the evening and into Tuesday night as the second shortwave and associated low pressure quickly moves through the Ohio Valley. The degree of instability ahead of the system is a bit uncertain due to the previous thunderstorm activity Monday night and the exact timing of the system Tuesday evening. Any severe threat that develops from this scenario would be focused across the southern half of the forecast area, especially southeastern Indiana and northern Kentucky. For the rest of the area, another round of light to moderate rain would be expected before rainfall moves out Wednesday morning to afternoon.

Drier air moves in through the remainder of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR CIGs continue into this morning, gradually scattering out from south to north throughout the afternoon. Some periods of localized IFR will occur at times before 14Z. CMH/LCK will be the last to clear.

Prevailing VFR conditions through the remainder of the TAF with northeasterly winds becoming more easterly. By Monday morning, surface winds will be southeasterly.

OUTLOOK....Thunderstorms possible Monday night into Tuesday. Additional thunderstorms possible Tuesday night through Wednesday morning.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.