textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday and Tuesday night. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible, increasing the threat for flooding.

2) Very warm temperatures will develop in the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A shortwave will move east across the area Tuesday morning, early afternoon over the Scioto River Valley eastward. Anomalously high PWATs and warm cloud depths will continue, leading to very efficient rain in storms that develop. With this timing, the best coverage of storms will be east of the area in the afternoon. The steady eastward push of the s/w may lessen the potential for focused heavy rain in any given location. However, the environment in place will still need for us to maintain a heightened awareness for flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

In the wake of any potential early convection, mid level heights will rise on Wednesday. Trends continue to be less amplified in the ridge but temperatures in the mid to upper 80s look likely on Wednesday and Thursday. With the dew point in the lower to mid 70s, max heat indices are forecast to be in the mid and upper 90s.

A vigorous trough working its way across the northern part of the country will suppress the mid level ridge will a surface cold front pushing through the region on Friday. So temperatures will be not quite as warm but still above normal late in the week into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Initial concern for the overnight hours lies with the potential for MVFR cigs and areas of fog. Since the rain today was neither widespread or heavy over any significant area, it looks like fog will not be a threat during the overnight hours. MVFR cigs before daybreak look to be prevalent, and indications of IFR are being shown for all but CMH/LCK.

Showers and storms are expected to move w-e and could start before daybreak in the west, reaching CMH/LCK towards noon. Models are quite divergent in this time period, with some of the CAMs bringing very little if any convection to the terminals. The larger scale models all indicate a more widespread precip event covering everyone. They still have a wider than normal variance between them, leading to a higher level of uncertainty in the evolution of storms and subsequent timing/placement.

Given a slightly higher indication of precip early tomorrow at CVG/LUK/DAY and slightly later at ILN, was a little more confident to add showers combined with either a tempo TS or prob30 for the morning. Cigs/vsby will drop in this precip, and lower cigs will occur a little before any precip begins, and maintain an ovc deck for the remainder of the forecast, likely waffling on either side of the 1000' threshold between IFR and MVFR, lifting to a higher MVFR deck towards evening.

A south wind around 10kt will see some gusts 18-20kt through the daylight hours.

OUTLOOK... MVFR cigs/vsbys could linger through Wednesday morning. Thunderstorms remain possible Wednesday through Friday, with a greater potential found in the afternoon and evening.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.