textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A cloudy, cold, and blustery day will be found after the passage of a strong cold front early this morning. West-northwest wind will subside some but still be noticeable through early Friday, as high pressure finally builds in. The high will settle over the region Saturday morning, with southerly flow finally kicking in and moderating temperatures at least a little bit.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A strong, stacked low pressure system will track east through the Great Lakes today and exit to the northeast tonight. Strong west winds behind a cold front are expected and a wind advisory has been hoisted for the northern 2/3 of CWA. Southern 2/6 isn't going to fare that much better but will not reach the criteria needed for an advisory.

Along with this wind will be temperatures falling steadily into the 30s. They'll be in the 30s all day west of I-75 and linger in the lower 30s this afternoon. Over the Scioto Valley, temps near 50 at daybreak will be near 40 by noon and solidly in the mid 30s by late day.

Wind will not be as gusty overnight but remain close to 20 mph over the northern 1/2 of CWA and 15-20 mph in the south. Overnight lows will be from 25-30 under cloudy skies. Cloud cover will begin to break up from the southwest late, only reaching the IN/KY/OH tri- state by daybreak.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Skies will continue to clear from the southwest on Thursday but should remain more cloudy than not for west central and central Ohio through the period. Brisk west winds 15-20 mph will continue through Thursday, keeping highs in the lower 30s for most of the region, some upper 30s along and south of the Ohio River.

West winds will maintain a 10-15 mph speed overnight. Lows will be pretty uniform and near 22 degrees.

Friday will see a gradient in the sky cover from generally clear in nrn KY to mostly cloudy north and east of metro Columbus. Wind will be a more reasonable 10-15 mph continuation from overnight and highs will top out 30-35 across the region.

Wind finally begins to die down Friday night as high pressure builds in from the northwest and settles over the CWA daybreak Saturday. While not a radiational cooling night, lows will still fall to within 2-3 deg of 20, coolest in central Ohio and the Hocking Hills.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Upper level energy ejecting sw from the nrn Rockies will help carve an longer wave trough over the Midwest this weekend. On Sunday morning, the trough axis will be near IL/IN and the energy will be ejecting ne ahead of it. A surface low will coincide with the upper level energy in the trough. Attm, it is expected to be near MO/IA/IL Sat evening, near Lake Huron Sunday morning and ejecting ne afterward. High pressure builds in behind it and remains the dominant weather maker for the first half of next week.

Ahead of the low will be an increasing chance of precipitation. If the precip occurs as early as Saturday, it will likely start as snow. Trend is a later start but snow potential should be noted as the weather type if weather occurs. By nighttime, pops increase ahead of an approaching cold front. However, the region will be in the warm sector overnight and any precip in the form of snow will mix with and change to rain from sw-ne and being all rain by Sunday. As the parent system moves quickly, so will the precip. Expect it to end Sun morning.

However, ensemble hangs on to rain chances through the remainder of the forecast which is plainly not a reasonable assumption. Confidence in the expected pattern beyond Sunday is low but it does not warrant precip through the forecast. And by Sun night, temps are such that if precip were to occur it would be snow. My take is that the chance of dry weather in any one period significantly outweighs the outlying ensemble members showing precip but the forecast does not represent that from Sun evening onward.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Gusts 30-40kt are expected today, strongest to the north at DAY where a stronger pressure gradient exists. Expect a 5-10kt decrease in speed/gusts overnight.

MVFR Cloud bases should lift to VFR in the afternoon at CVG/LUK. At DAY/ILN/CMH/LCK, they could waffle around the 3kft threshold of MVFR/VFR this afternoon and evening but I did not prevail VFR until 05Z. Clouds should be scattering out at CVG/LUK around 06Z.

OUTLOOK...Winds gusts of 25-30kts likely Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>072. KY...None. IN...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM EST this evening for INZ050-058-059-066.