textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

In collaboration with surrounding offices and WPC, high temperatures for Saturday through Tuesday continue to be adjusted down from the NBM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected this weekend with showers and thunderstorms occurring across the region. A warm front shifts north on Sunday providing drier conditions on Monday. The next cold front approaches the region Tuesday.

2) Above normal temperatures are forecast Sunday through Tuesday before a cold front moves Wednesday or Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) A weakening band of showers and clouds continues to move across the area through the afternoon. Even those who do not see rain may still see some decreasing temperatures this afternoon due to the evaporative cooling that has taken place. This pool of cooler air should be mitigated by the afternoon sun as drier air slowly erodes the remaining rainfall.

Otherwise, attention shifts to the next period of activity coming late tonight into Saturday morning. Surface high pressure shifts far enough to the east to allow for more substantial moisture advection on the southeast side of the approaching trough. Combining the increased moisture with warm air advection in the low-level jet will yield better chances for shower and thunderstorm development into Saturday morning. While confidence is high that the broader area sees these higher chances for rain, pin pointing specific locals for higher chances is a bit more uncertain. A weak disturbance in the mid-level flow could provide better forcing for portions of northern Kentucky and southwest/southern Ohio during the late morning and early afternoon hours.

If there is a bit more coverage across the area in the morning, lingering cloud cover and showers through the early afternoon could disrupt the potential for a second round of thunderstorms tied to the typical period of maximum surface instability. Trends will be closely monitored during the late afternoon and early evening for locals that may see a second round of thunderstorms.

The overall severe threat remains marginal, largely due to the limited availability of stronger severe weather parameters. However, there remains enough wind flow and potential for stronger instability to support a threat for damaging winds and perhaps a few reports of large hail. These severe weather impacts are expected to be fairly isolated in the morning, with a better chance in the afternoon and evening if a second round of thunderstorms can form.

The warm front will be the focus for any lingering showers and thunderstorms into the day on Sunday. After that, the warm front lifting north will provide a break in the rainfall for Monday ahead of the next cold front system. Something to watch for during the late afternoon and evening hours on Monday and moreso on Tuesday is the potential for some diurnally based activity due to the heat and moisture in the region. The ridge will be far enough to the east to allow for more favorable lift over eastern Indiana and western Ohio.

Confidence is increasing across the suite of models to allow for a clear frontal passage sometime Wednesday or Wednesday night. This would dry the region out for Thursday and Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperature forecasts remain on track through the weekend and into early next week as a ridge forms over the eastern CONUS. A period of well above normal temperatures persists until a cold front approaches the region Tuesday or Tuesday night. Sunday through Tuesday, temperatures range from the mid to upper 80s and into the lower 90s, especially on Monday. There is a bit more uncertainty with the timing on the front, but Tuesday could also remain quite warm before the influence of the front impacts the local weather. The temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated by the presence of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast Thursday and Friday behind the front.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Still some sprinkles or very light rain occurring across portions of the area, but overall, the main theme for the next 12-18 hours is VFR conditions with passing low to mid level ceilings.

Between 09Z-14Z, conditions become more favorable for shower development and eventually scattered thunderstorms. Confidence is still low enough to keep all mentions of thunderstorms limited to PROB30 groups.

Winds are predominately southerly to southwesterly through the entire TAF period. Gusts above 20 knots are forecast Saturday with higher gusts possible in thunderstorms.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible Saturday evening through Saturday night and then again on Tuesday and Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.