textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A series of weak disturbances will bring a chance for light showers tonight into Tuesday morning and then again Wednesday night into Thursday. Temperatures will remain well above normal through the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/

Surface high pressure centered over eastern Ohio early this morning will continue to shift off to the east through this afternoon. This will allow for return flow to set up across our area with low level WAA developing. As a result, expect an increase in mid and high level clouds today along with moderating temperatures. Afternoon highs will range from the mid 40s north to near 50 degrees in the far south.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/

Low level southwest flow will continue to increase as we head into tonight as a 40 to 50 knot 850 mb jet shifts overhead. This will lead to some continued moisture advection up into the mid OhiO Valley through the night. Forcing will remain somewhat limited so while we will see some areas of showers develop heading into tonight and then linger into Tuesday morning, it will be a fairly light QPF event. Temperatures will continue to trend above normal with highs on Tuesday in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

On Tuesday evening, a cold front will be moving south through the ILN forecast area, with high pressure settling into the Great Lakes. The region will be between waves in the active WNW flow aloft, leading to a mostly dry day on Wednesday, with highs perhaps a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday.

An active and generally warm pattern will set up through the rest of the extended forecast period. The boundary layer theta-e gradient will oscillate northward and southward through the period, with a quick progression of shortwave troughs and ridges passing eastward in the upper flow. One such wave will move into the region Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing showers to the area and even some thunder -- some elevated instability is likely to exist per model soundings, though the boundary layer will remain quite stable at this point.

Thursday and Friday are expected to be the warmest days of the forecast period, as a result of increasing southwesterly flow ahead of a developing low pressure system. While confidence is high in warm temperatures, there is still a lot of uncertainty on the timing, placement, and depth of the surface low. This will have an eventual impact on the magnitude of the warmth, the strength of the winds (some gusty conditions will be possible ahead of the low), and the timing and placement for precipitation chances. For now, it is fair to expect some breezy, wet, and warm conditions near the end of the week. In terms of temperatures, the current forecast is expecting lower 60s on Thursday and mid 60s on Friday. These values would be within a few degrees of record highs.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mid and high level clouds can be expected through this afternoon in a developing southerly flow pattern. A strengthening low level jet will shift east across the area tonight. As the low levels moisten up, cigs will fall into MVFR category later this evening and then persist through tonight before eventually falling into IFR category toward daybreak. Areas of light rain showers will also develop tonight along with some MVFR vsbys. Areas of light rain/patchy drizzle and MVFR BR will then be possible into Tuesday morning. Some marginal LLWS will also be possible at times tonight.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities likely Wednesday night into Thursday with MVFR ceilings possibly lingering into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.