textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures for today through Tuesday continue to be adjusted down from the NBM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A warm front shifts north on Sunday providing drier and warmer conditions through Monday. The next cold front approaches the Ohio Valley on Tuesday bringing renewed rain chances through midweek, followed by cooler temperatures behind the front for mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Warm front lifting north will offer a lingering chance of showers and thunderstorms this morning. Moderate elevated instability will continue to fuel storms but low level inversion will inhibit severe weather threat. Mid ad upper level ridging to build into the region offering height rising and drier and warmer weather. Isolated to scattered late afternoon and evening showers and storms are possible across west central Ohio and eastern Indiana on Monday around the periphery of the ridge axis.

A period of well above normal temperatures will persist through Tuesday ahead of a cold front that pass through the area on Wednesday. Today through Tuesday, high temperatures range from the mid-upper 80s into the lower 90s. Temperatures on Wednesday are mitigated by the presence of the front, along with any showers and thunderstorms. Highs on expected to range from near 70 northwest to around 80 southeast.

Cooler temperatures are then forecast Thursday and Friday in the wake of the front.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Showers and storms moving thru southern Ohio/northern Kentucky associated with an MCV. Models solutions continue to show the potential for shower/storm redevelopment tonight overnight near the Ohio River, with a slow, northerly progression as a warm front lifts north across the area. Have limited mention of these showers/storms to a prob30 due to uncertainty.

VFR conditions with mid level clouds observed at all TAF/s sans KLUK where valley fog will result in occasional IFR conditions prior to sunrise. Can not rule out some brief MVFR ceilings with showers/storms early.

Clouds scatter out with few to scattered cumulus clouds this afternoon. Southerly winds gust up to 20 kts during the daylight hours and then drop to less than 10 kts tonight.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible on Tuesday and Wednesday. MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.