textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered surface dew points this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Increased wind gusts for Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quiet weather this weekend.

2) A warm and active weather pattern for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow aloft with a large surface high pressure of Canadian origin centered over the area building off to the southeast overnight into Sunday. This high will continue to offer cooler temperatures and dry conditions.

Lows by Sunday morning will generally be in the lower and middle 30s, a few degrees below. A southerly flow develops on the back side of the retreating high pressure Sunday. This will allow temperatures to warm above normal with highs ranging from the upper 50s to the middle 60s.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

An active weather pattern develops next week as the mid level flow pattern transitions to more zonal Monday and then southwesterly by mid week. Moisture returns with a slight chance of a few showers beginning Monday. The active weather pattern will bring daily precipitation chances for precipitation week through the remainder of the week. The best chances for rain will occur Wednesday and Thursday as a front slips into the area Wednesday and then a wave is expected to eject northeast thru the Ohio Valley and the Great Lakes Thursday.

NBM probabilities of 48 hour rainfall above 1 inch is 50 to >60 percent, with probability of rainfall above 2 inches of 20 to 35 percent.

As the weather undergoes a pattern change temperatures warm above normal with highs on Monday from the upper 60s to the lower 70s and then in the upper 70s to around 80 on Tuesday. Readings fall back close to normal Wednesday - ranging from the lower 50sw northwest to the mid/upper 60s southeast. Temperatures then slowly warm thru the week with highs Thursday in the mid 50s to lower 60s, mid and upper 60s Friday, and then the upper 60s to lower 70s Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the period. Mid and high clouds will slowly increase Sunday in advance of a trough over the High Plains. Southerly winds will increase with gusts to near or just above 20 knots. Southwesterly LLWS is likely to develop toward the end of the CVG extended TAF period.

OUTLOOK...Gusty winds in excess of 30 knots likely on Tuesday. Thunderstorms possible Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. MVFR conditions possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.