textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A low pressure system is moving through the Ohio Valley today, bringing periods of light rainfall.

2) Extended period of cooler conditions settles in over the region through the rest of the week, continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

As the surface low pressure moves through today, off and on periods of rainfall will occur. Limited instability inhibits the potential for widespread thunderstorms, but a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out. Cloud cover and rainfall keeps temperatures generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Late in the afternoon, the low pressure begins to pull away to the east supporting strengthening northwesterly winds. These winds will continue into the evening hours, and a few scattered showers are expected within the northwest flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

No major changes in the overall expectations for the upcoming stretch of cooler days later this week and through the weekend. A deep longwave trough settles in over the Midwest and Great Lakes by Thursday, beginning an extended period of below normal temperatures. The coolest temperatures are forecast on Friday and Saturday, with high temperatures between 55 and 60, which is about 10 to 15 degrees below normal. The potential for frost looks possible Friday night and Saturday night. Saturday night appears to be the better opportunity between the two due to the drier air mass and closer proximity to the surface high pressure.

Drier conditions will accompany the cooler air weather, but there will be a few opportunities for light rainfall. Lingering showers are expected on Thursday, with a secondary cold front providing additional showers on Friday. Following the surface high pressure this weekend, the next chance for rain is on Monday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Surface low pressure is moving through the area this morning and will exit to the east later this afternoon. Winds be light and variable as the low moves through, becoming more northwesterly into the afternoon. Expect periods of light rain through the morning and into the afternoon with more shower-like activity this afternoon and early evening. Winds continue to remain out of northwest through the end of the TAF.

A wide variety of CIG restrictions this morning with VFR to LIFR present at the onset of the 12Z TAFs. IFR conditions are common in most prevailing groups with gradual improvements to MVFR by the afternoon. Additional scattering of clouds will allow for a brief period of VFR before chances of MVFR increase once again overnight. Southern sites like CVG/LUK have lower confidence in the MVFR conditions so held off on a mention there until confidence increases.

Thunderstorm chances are very low but not zero. Given the low probability, no mentions were used in the TAF at this time.

OUTLOOK...Significant weather is not expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.