textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure will move off to the southeast today. Southerly flow develops allowing for a warming trend as the week progresses. Temperatures will rise back above normal on Thursday, but this will be accompanied by rain ahead of an approaching cold front.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Surface high pressure will continue to shift to the southeast through tonight. Despite the influence of high pressure, a decent amount of mainly mid to high clouds has been streaming southeast through the CWA. This will lead to partly to mostly cloudy skies through the balance of the day. High temperatures will wind up the lower to mid 20s for most areas, and with some wind the wind chill values will range from the single digits north to teens south.

CLoud cover should thin out this evening for at least partial clearing. With a modifying air mass, it won't be quite as cold as last night however with partial clearing and a decent snowpack in place, temperatures will still be able to drop into the teens.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/

A warm up will start on Tuesday as mid level flow backs to the west and low level winds become southwest. This will lead to some high clouds, but there should be a decent amount of sunshine and this combined with southwest winds will boost high temperatures into the mid to upper 30s. Southwest gradient tightens Tuesday night, with lows from the upper 20s to lower 30s and increasing clouds.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

One weakening shortwave is forecast to move across the CWA on Wednesday, with little or no impact. Wednesday will feature partly sunny skies and moderating temperatures.

The warm up continues ahead of a more significant shortwave/cold front on Thursday. Current timing trends are for precipitation to move in after sunrise and temperatures would be warm enough for rain on Thursday. The front is forecast to move through late in the afternoon and evening. Gusty winds are expected Thursday both ahead of and behind the front. In addition, as colder air moves in behind the front, any leftover moisture could end as a brief rain/snow mix however much of the moisture would likely be pushed east by that time.

Friday will dry out but also be colder behind the front. Highs on Friday will only be in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the CWA. However this may be short-lived as the trend will be for a quick moderation into the weekend/early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Prevailing VFR conditions to start the TAF period with high level clouds moving over the sites this evening and tonight. Light southerly winds gradually turn more westerly toward 12Z.

Latest guidance and satellite observations due indicate the potential for MVFR CIGs after 12Z Tuesday. This deck of clouds is currently over southwest Missouri, and it hasn't been analyzed well in most of the guidance. Short term trends suggest these clouds move into the lower Ohio Valley overnight before shifting northeastward into the area after 15Z. Trends will continue to be monitored but confidence has increased enough for an low-end VFR/MVFR mention in the TAFs for the late morning and afternoon period.

Winds are once again out of the south tomorrow around 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thursday into Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.