textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The severe weather risk has ended this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The severe weather risk has ended this evening.

2) Cooler Temperatures to start the week.

3) Showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds Wednesday and Thursday when a strong low is expected to move through the Great Lakes.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

The severe weather risk has ended this evening. The Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect earlier has been canceled. A cold front has moved across the area, and northwest winds behind the front will bring lower dewpoints tonight. Northwest winds will be gusty (20-25 mph) through sunset, and while gusts should diminish after dark sustained winds of 5 to 10 mph will persist. This and drier air should preclude fog development.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

High pressure builds in behind a cold front tonight and moves across the region on Monday and Tuesday. Dry conditions and below average temperatures accompany the surface high through at least Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, winds shift back to the south behind the high on Tuesday as a low fills to the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are possible by Tuesday night when a warm front lifts into the Ohio Valley.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Medium range global ensemble guidance continues to show an anomalously deep surface low moving through the Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday. Robust upper level winds accompany this surface low.

Although the exact details are still not resolved, the most likely scenario involves a warm front lifting through the Ohio Valley on Wednesday or Wednesday night followed by a cold front on Thursday. Strong wind shear is likely and at least some instability looks probable along with anomalously high PWATs. If conditions do end coming together, multiple periods of severe weather are possible as highlighted by SPC extended range outlook. Flooding potential exists as well as mentioned in the WPC slight risk in the extended timeframe. Timing and placement of the low across the lakes will have a large impact on the forecast as the timeframe draws closer. Regardless of storm potential, gusty winds are likely on Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A cold front has moved across the area early this evening. Wind shift to the northwest has occurred. Gusts around 20 knots may continue until 01Z-02Z, then gusts should diminish but northwest winds of 5 to 10 knots likely persist through the night. With drier air, am not expecting fog formation tonight and therefore VFR conditions are forecast through the valid TAF period.

OUTLOOK... Thunderstorms and gusty winds possible Wednesday and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.