textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will result in dry conditions and a warming trend for the region Monday into Tuesday. An upper level disturbance will bring the next chance for precipitation to the Ohio Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday night. This will be followed by a much colder airmass for the second half of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Mid level trough axis will push off to our east through the rest of this afternoon. This will allow for the lingering light snow showers and flurries to taper off from west to east through the rest of this afternoon. Otherwise, surface high pressure will build into the Tennessee and southern Ohio Valleys through tonight. As the low level flow backs, we should see a decreasing cloud/wind trend from the southwest overnight. Lows will be in the low to mid 20s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT/

The surface high will shift slowly off to the east Monday into Monday night while west to northwest flow persists aloft. Some weak mid level energy could lead to some mid/high level clouds at times. Temperatures will slowly moderate with highs on Monday in the upper 30s to lower 40s and lows Monday night in the upper 20s to lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A broad longwave trough over eastern Canada and CONUS will be in place at the start of the extended. A deepening shortwave within this flow will move into the Ohio Valley region on Tuesday, accompanied by a 45-50 knot jet. This will promote strong southerly flow at the surface during the daytime hours on Tuesday, with gusts between 20-30 MPH possible during the afternoon hours. Tuesday's high temperatures reach the upper 40s; an approaching cold front will introduce precipitation to the forecast Tuesday night and ptype look to remain all rain given the warm lower layers of the column. Immediately on the heels of this cold front, a secondary shortwave lobe pivots around the larger flow, also deepening as it moves over the Great Lakes. This feature will bring a reinforcing shot of cold air as well as robust lift and deep layer moisture. As the column cools, p-type will begin to mix over to a rain/snow mix before becoming all snow on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Some details still need to be ironed out, but decent consensus for some accumulating snowfall during this time period as well as much colder temperatures. Wednesday night's lows look to fall to the teens with Thursday's highs in the 20s.

As we head toward the weekend, our attention then turns to the next wave of energy on our doorstep, but significant differences in timing/placement prevent much confidence at this junction. For now, have maintained the blend, which reintroduces chance snow showers for the weekend, with well below average temperatures.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A few scattered flurries over central Ohio will taper off early as the upper level disturbance moves off to the east. Surface high pressure will build into the region overnight and into the day on Monday. MVFR ceilings will scatter from the southwest overnight with conditions improving to VFR. VFR conditions will then prevail through the reminder of the TAF forecast period. West winds gusting to 25 kts early will begin to decrease this evening as the surface high starts to build in. Winds will back to southwest and increase Monday afternoon with gusts of 20-23 kts.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Wednesday through Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.