textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued Dense Fog Advisory, valid until 9AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The warm and active weather pattern will continue through most of the week, with several rounds of showers and storms expected into the upcoming weekend. A much cooler and drier pattern will return for early next week.

2) Colder weather pattern early next week will bring a chance of frost Monday and Tuesday morning and a freeze potential for Wednesday morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Warm front will lift north through the middle Ohio Valley early this morning, with showers ending behind the front as the warm sector returns. Heading into the afternoon, the southerly pressure gradient tightens. This, combined with plenty of solar insolation during the day, will lead to wind gusts of 30-40 mph at times.

Mean trough centered over the Plains states will keep our area in southwesterly mid-level flow into the early parts of the weekend. First major impulse lifts through the Ohio Valley Thursday night. Showers and a few storms along with gusty winds will accompany this impulse.

Another, stronger shortwave will bring a better chance of storms on Saturday. This will increase the wind flow to the point of bringing a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms from the late afternoon through the evening hours. A strong cold front will shift through the region Saturday night with cooler, drier weather starting Sunday and continuing into early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Temperatures will return to near to slightly below normal early next week. Current forecast low temperatures support a chance for frost Monday morning and again Tuesday morning. Confidence remains low at this point based on forecast wind speeds. If winds can drop off enough, frost will become more likely. The coldest morning of the period arrives Wednesday, with low temperatures dropping into the upper 20s north to lower 30s south.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Warm front will lift through the area this morning from south to north. Lingering showers will end behind the front as winds shift to the south. Very low stratus and fog will lift and burn off as temperatures quickly warm behind the warm front.

Much of the day today will be dry. Pressure gradient will begin to tighten with southwesterly wind gusts increasing to 25-30 knots by afternoon.

Low level wind shear is maintained in the TAFs this evening into tonight as winds aloft increase. Scattered showers are likely to develop late tonight ahead of a weakening shortwave. Will continue to monitor for fine tuning the timing along with any accompanying visibility restrictions in the showers.

OUTLOOK...Periodic thunderstorms with MVFR conditions are possible through Saturday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ089>100. IN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for INZ075-080.