textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Continued light snow showers and flurries through late afternoon before tapering off.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Below normal temperatures continue through Tuesday.

2)Next chance for widespread precipitation impacts the area for mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Continued northwest flow over the Great Lakes this afternoon will begin to slacken this evening as a ridge of surface high pressure builds into the middle Ohio Valley. This will end the light snow showers and flurries from west to east. Decreasing clouds and lighter winds overnight tonight will allow for temperatures to drop into the upper teens by morning. Cold conditions will hold through Tuesday as the ridge shifts just to the east of the area by afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Both European and American model ensembles have continued to keep a southern stream system focused south of the region midweek. Isentropic lift will likely bring steady rain to our southern zones late Wednesday evening, with precipitation lifting north to some degree overnight. The northern extent of the precipitation is uncertain, along with vertical temperature profiles during this precip. An initial look at 12km NAM soundings show a distinct warm nose aloft and perhaps an initial period of freezing rain or sleet late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS (deterministic) keeps the profile below freezing with only a period of light snow due to the system's southern trajectory. For now, have limited the grids to rain and snow and will continue to monitor trends on freezing precipitation potential.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Snow showers have started to taper off across the area TAF sites. Have them lingering a little longer with some potential visibility restrictions at KCMH and KLCK at the start of the TAF period. Wind gusts will also diminish this evening. A mix of MVFR and VFR cigs will be around for the first half of the night before a return to VFR conditions.

For the day on Tuesday winds will pick up and become gusty again during the day. There will be additional VFR clouds that work into the region. LLWS will be possible at the end of the KCVG and KLUK TAF period.

OUTLOOK...MVFR conditions possible Tuesday night. LLWS possible Tuesday night. MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.