textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A system will move across the area today into tonight which will result in accumulating snow area wide. Some of the snow will be heavy at times this afternoon into this evening. Arctic air will settle into the region behind the snow, bringing bitterly cold temperatures into Monday. This will be followed by a substantial warm up through midweek.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

A deep mid level low to settle south into the northern Great Lakes today. A surface cold front marking the leading edge of Arctic air will track southeast thru the area today. This will result in falling temperatures through the afternoon. A vigorous short wave will quickly move from the upper Mississippi Valley southeast across the area. Mid level frontogenesis out ahead of this system will spread a widespread band of snow across the area from late morning through the afternoon, mainly north of the Ohio River. This band of snow will sag southeast across the rest of the area late in the day.

Observing pretty good consensus that heaviest snowfall amounts will occur between I-70 and the Ohio River with an axis of 3" to 6". A very slight shift south of this heaviest axis of snow. SLR which start out close to 15:1 increase to above 20:1 this evening. This will make for a drier more fluffy snow. The heaviest snow aligns with the previous winter storm warning - so this headline was continued. Outside of the warning area, have continued winter weather advisories to the north and to the south.

Temperatures drop and winds increase as the snow tapers off late this evening, but travel impacts from this snow will likely continue. The combination of snow, wind, and cold will make tonight an unfavorable time to be outside or traveling.

Temperatures begin to fall today with readings by evening from the middle teens northwest to near 30 southeast. Forecast lows tonight drop off to the single digits overnight. With winds of 10 to 15 mph, wind chills temperatures will fall below zero with much of the Whitewater and Miami Valleys getting to 10 below or colder.

Have issued a cold weather advisory for tonight through Monday morning due the bitterly cold conditions.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/

Arctic high pressure will build into the area Sunday. Bitterly cold conditions will be observed with highs from near 10 across eastern Indiana and western Ohio to the middle teens in the Scioto River Valley. Wind chill readings never get much above either side of zero during the day. These readings drop off below zero Sunday night with the coldest areas observing values of 10 to 15 below zero by early Monday morning. Have continued the cold weather advisory thru Monday morning.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

The center of a shallow, frigid air mass (arctic high pressure) will move up the middle Ohio River River Valley late Sunday night. Winds will be rather light -- especially in our southern zones -- allowing temperatures to be a few degrees colder than the night before. Wouldn't be surprised to see some below zero low temperatures from southeast Indiana through southwest Ohio and into northern Kentucky. With the winds factored in, wind chill will likely continue to fall near or below Cold Weather Advisory thresholds Sunday night into Monday morning.

As the high exits to the east, temperatures will rebound into the 20s Monday afternoon, 30s Tuesday, 40s Wednesday, and potentially into the 50s in southwesterly flow on Thursday. Rain is likely ahead of a frontal system on Thursday, with temperatures cooling back down to near or a bit below normal Friday. &&

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR ceilings are expected to be the main impact this morning. Focus shifts to Snow will develop late morning into this afternoon leading to deteriorating conditions. The snow will move into the area from west- northwest to east- southeast, bringing IFR to LIFR visibilities, and IFR ceilings. A period of accumulating snow, marked by SN in the TAFs, is expected at all TAF sites during the mid afternoon through evening. Winds will gradually shift from west- southwest to the west- northwest, at around 10 knots, though a few gusts could occur at times.

The snow tapers off late in the TAF period with MVFR ceilings continuing.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings will likely continue into the day on Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>062. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for OHZ063>065-070>074-077>082-088. KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ089-090-094>100. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for KYZ089>097-099-100. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for KYZ091>093. IN...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ050-058-059-080. Cold Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Monday for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080. Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Sunday for INZ066-073>075.