textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will move through the Ohio Valley this weekend. This will bring a chance for precipitation, mainly during the day on Sunday. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Surface high pressure will weaken overnight as it gets shunted off to our southeast. Meanwhile, weak southwest low level flow should help some of the low clouds continue to erode away this afternoon into early evening. Some weak mid level energy will approach from the west late tonight along with an associated weak surface trough. This will lead to some increase in lower clouds from the west late along with perhaps a few flurries. Lows tonight will be in the upper teens to lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT/

The weak mid level energy will push east across our area through Saturday morning as the weak trough axis sags into our region. Any better moisture will remain mainly limited to the lower levels. However, some slightly higher RHs in the mid levels will intersect with the DGZ zone through the morning hours so will continue with a mention of flurries. This could mix with/transition into some patchy drizzle through the day before ending as the mid levels dry out, but by this time, think temperatures should be near or above freezing. Highs on Saturday will be in the 30s with lows Saturday night in the mid to upper 20s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Sw-ne oriented sfc trough will strengthen and cross east early Sunday as a cold front. Until it does, there appears to be enough of a warm surge ahead of it where rain will overcome any early start with snow for the southern 2/3 of CWA. Along and near I-70 corridor will be a mix, and west central OH should be primarily snow. While an earlier end to snow is favored, kept low chance pops in for the overnight and cut them from nw-se in the post-frontal atmosphere.

The next precip chance is a weak one early Tuesday in central and west central Ohio where upper level s/w energy in nrn MI and an influx of moist air on sly winds occur. Models have a good bit of variance in this time period and I feel that the hedge towards the wetter ensemble solution is in error.

A more viable precip event looks to occur Wednesday but still shows a good bit of variance in placement/timing, which isn't any surprise this far out. Kept NBM guidance here, which starts as rain, mixes with snow in the north during the evening, and continues to change to snow n-s overnight. A bit more detail for this extended period, but at least any freezing rain being spit out by models has been changed to snow.

After a slight warming on Sun into the 30s/low 40s, temperatures drop behind a cold front into the teens overnight. Some single digits in west central Ohio and lower 20s over KY and far srn OH. Monday will have highs from low 20s nw to low 30s se, and lows will not have as large of a spread - lower teens northern 1/2 of CWA and upper teens srn 1/2.

Tue and Wed should bring milder air with highs in the 30s to low 40s and lows Tue night near 30 degrees. Fropa Wed will see lows drop back to low-mid 20s and teens again from Thurs night. Highs fall back to the mid 20s-mid 30s Thurs, 20s on Fri.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

MVFR CIGs have scattered out for all area TAF sites, but the MVFR cloud deck remains fairly close as it stalls nearby. Have kept FEW/SCT mentions for most sites as there is some chance for this to retrograde closer during the overnight.

Otherwise, focus shifts to the next round of MVFR CIGs arriving after 12Z Saturday. Clouds lower below <2000 feet during the afternoon, and there remains at least a small chance that IFR CIGs may be observed. Chances are too low to mention for this forecast, however, the best chance for this to occur appears between 16-20Z Saturday. After 00Z, CIGs remain MVFR but may increase in height above 2000 feet.

Precipitation chances appear quite low, but some flurries and patchy drizzle/freezing drizzle are possible, primarily during the 16-20Z time frame.

Light winds are southerly tonight and will increase overnight into Saturday morning. Expect southwest winds around 10 knots Saturday.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs possible into Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.