textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain expected Saturday night into Sunday.

2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

3) Some chance for rain and increased winds next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Rain expected Saturday night into Sunday.

Quiet weather conditions are expected for the next 24 hours or so, as high pressure drifts southeast into the Carolinas. Some height rises will occur Saturday, in response to ridging over the southeastern CONUS, before attention turns to a shortwave moving east from Texas on Saturday night. Ahead of this wave, which may close off into a low, deep-layer theta-e advection will occur through the Tennessee Valley and into part of the Ohio Valley. There will be a northward limit to the deeper southerly flow, roughly coincident with the northern extent of the closed 925mb/850mb height contours, and precipitation will thus be limited with northward extent. There remains fairly strong model agreement in a precipitation shield (which should be all rain) passing through the region from Saturday night through Sunday. Rainfall amounts have continued to trend a little lower for the ILN CWA, with the heaviest activity expected to remain to the south. The current forecast is expecting around a half inch of rain in the southern ILN CWA, with much lower values for the norther ILN CWA, near and north of Interstate 70. Even the higher end of the probabilistic forecast range is struggling to get to an inch in the southern ILN CWA, so overall, no hazards are expected. Combined with the snow melt, stream and river levels may rise a bit, but flooding is not expected. Although not specifically included in the forecast at this point, low clouds and perhaps some drizzle could stick around into Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2) Much above normal temperatures expected next week.

An area of high pressure will follow the Sunday wave, and will mark the beginning of a significant warming trend next week. Weak southerly flow will already be in place Monday, with much stronger southerly to southwesterly flow Tuesday and beyond. As of now, Wednesday looks to be the warmest day, though at this distance in the forecast there is some room for this to change. Forecast highs in the lower to mid 60s are in the forecast for Wednesday, with upper 50s to lower 60s on Tuesday and Thursday. In all honesty, there is room for these forecasts to increase as temporal uncertainty decreases.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Some chance for rain and increased winds next week.

With ridging extending from the southeastern CONUS to the Ohio Valley, the overall storm track next week should stay just north of the ILN CWA. It does look like the flow will become active by Wednesday, with one or two systems moving through the Great Lakes between then and the end of the week. Precipitation potential will depend on track, forcing, and how much moisture is able to make it into the Ohio Valley. Some PoPs were included in the forecast toward the end of the week. Another factor to mention is that winds will probably become gusty at some point during this time period as well. Still a lot to be resolved in terms of details, but some rain and increased winds could accompany the warmer temperatures in the second half of next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions are generally expected through the TAF period, with winds remaining 10 knots or less. There is a slight chance of some MVFR fog early Saturday morning, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs as of now.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibilities are expected Saturday night into Sunday with rain. MVFR ceilings may continue into Sunday night.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.