textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered surface dew points this afternoon with diurnally-enhanced mixing. Adjusted pops lower this evening. Increased wind gusts this afternoon, Monday, and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Quiet weather will persist through Monday, with breezy conditions expected both this afternoon and Monday afternoon.

2) A warmer and more active weather pattern will develop by late Tuesday and beyond, with several rounds of showers and storms expected from midweek into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Northwest flow aloft will back westerly overnight with southerly flow on the back side of retreating surface high pressure. Favorable mixing has resulted in wind gusts up to 25 mph and minimum relative humidly values of 20 to 25 percent across the southeast. This has created increased fire weather danger. Conditions improve by early evening as wind gusts diminish and higher dew points are advected into the area.

A weak shortwave and modest 8H jet of 40-45kts leads to isentropic lift overnight. NBM pops look to be a little too high, especially early given dry air in the lower levels. Have limited any mention of precipitation to a chance of a sprinkle until late tonight and then only a low pop chance of a shower. The best coverage of a shower late tonight into early Monday is likely to be focused southeast of the I-71 corridor between midnight and mid morning. A low chance threat for a shower or perhaps a thunderstorm continues into Monday evening. Thunderstorm chances look to be very low with very limited instability.

Looking at forecast soundings and momentum transfer - have increased wind gusts Monday afternoon up to 30 mph.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

An active weather pattern will develop by midweek and beyond as persistent southwesterly flow aloft become established from the through the Ohio Valley.

Moisture increases with a frontal sagging into the ILN FA late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase across far from northwest to southeast associated with this front. Better forcing and a more defined shortwave and surface wave will move through Thursday into early Friday.

PWAT anomalies on the order of 200% of seasonal norms, combined with the oscillating front, will need to be watched for episodes of both excessive rainfall and severe storm potential.

Latest guidance continues to support the front continuing to pivot thru the region through next Saturday, suggesting continued rounds of showers and storms are likely from midweek through Saturday. At this time - there is good agreement that high pressure offers drier weather later Sunday.

There is a good signal supporting widespread rainfall 1-3 inches during this time across a large portion of the Ohio River. There may be isolated higher amounts in some locations in convection.

As the weather undergoes a pattern change, above normal temperatures are likely midweek into next weekend, with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s for most of this period.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the evening, with an increase in mid and high clouds. A weak shortwave and low level jet will lead to isentropic lift overnight.

Can not rule out a sprinkle this evening from a mid deck, with some Some patchy light rain showers between 06z-11z, mainly over KCMH and KLCK. A PROB30 has been added at these sites to account for this potential. A period of MVFR ceilings will likely develop Monday morning - improving to VFR during the afternoon.

Southwest winds gusting around 20kts at times this afternoon decrease to 10 kts or less tonight and then gust up to 25 kts Monday afternoon.

Low level wind shear develops in response to the low level jet tonight between 04z-12z.

OUTLOOK...Gusty winds in excess of 30 knots are likely on Tuesday. Periodic thunderstorms are possible Wednesday through Thursday. MVFR conditions are possible Wednesday through Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.