textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The best chances for strong to severe thunderstorms today have shifted eastward.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front will bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Saturday. Behind the front, a much cooler airmass will move into the region for early next week. Warmer temperatures will return mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Widespread showers and thunderstorms back across Illinois and parts of Indiana will continue to weaken this morning as they move east into a more stable airmass in place across Ohio. Models continue to trend faster with the eastward progression of the cold front today. In southerly flow ahead of the front, destabilization will occur late this morning into this afternoon. However, given the faster timing, the best axis of instability this afternoon will be mainly off to our east. As a result, expect mainly shower activity today with just the potential for some embedded thunderstorms across our west. In the east, there may be a small window this afternoon for some better thunderstorm development, but the best severe threat will generally be off to our east. Shower activity will continue into this evening before tapering off from west to east as the trough axis shifts through our area.

Behind the front, good CAA will develop tonight with a much cooler airmass settling into the region for Sunday and Monday. High temperatures both days will generally be in the 50s to around 60 degrees. Sunday night will be the coolest night with overnight lows in the low to mid 30s. This will lead to the potential for some frost/freeze conditions.

Mid level ridging will build into the Ohio Valley through mid week, leading to a warming trend through the second half of the work week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Showers and a few thunderstorms will overspread the region from the west later this morning and into this afternoon as a cold front moves through the area. This will lead to lowering cigs with MVFR conditions developing late this morning and then persisting through much of the afternoon. Some shower activity will linger into this evening before tapering off from the west overnight as the upper level trough axis shifts east across the region. VFR conditions will return toward the end of the TAF period.

OUTLOOK....MVFR ceilings and visibilities possible on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.