textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have increased the winds this morning. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Chances for light precipitation early today and again late tonight into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A developing low level jet strengthens this morning as it pivots thru the area ahead of a surface cold front approaching from the northwest. Weak isentropic lift was leading to some light mixed rain and snow north of I-70. This light pcpn will shift southeast through the early morning hours. As this pcpn axis shifts southeast the thermal profiles become more favorable for light rain. There is a signal for some light snow accumulation across portions of Central Ohio where the thermal profile is more favorable for a P-type of snow prior to rush hour. Metro Road model indicates road temperatures in the mid and upper 30s so do not expect significant impacts. With surface temperatures remaining near or just above freezing, do not anticipate impacts farther south.

A mid level short wave will dive southeast from the Central Plains tonight across the Lower Ohio Valley and TN Valleys Thursday. Precipitation looks to develop late tonight and continue into Thursday morning. The system is progressive with moisture moving in after 06Z Thursday and shifting to the southeast out of the area by 18Z Thursday.

Model solution spread continues to be observed but a general southward trend continues to be observed. The GFS remains the most aggressive being farther north with the latest deterministic run indicating around an inch of snow across the south. GEFS only gives a 30 to 50 percent chance of an inch. The ECMWF and Canadian solutions are less favorable. ECMWF ensemble shows only a very spotty 10 to 20 percent probability of an inch across the far south.

Given the various solutions it continues to look like the best chance for any accumulations will likely be south of I-70, and most likely will be limited to an inch or less.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A developing low level jet strengthens this morning as it pivots thru the area ahead of a surface cold front approaching from the northwest. Scattered light rain and snow showers have develops across the north and will shift south early with a p-type of rain favored as it heads farther south.

The pcpn will bring some MVFR conditions to KCMH/KLCK, with MVFR ceilings lingering for several hours after the pcpn ends.

The pcpn may also be accompanied by some brief MVFR visibilities. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by 15z as clouds scatter out from west to east.

A period of LLWS on the order of 45-55kts is expected thru 10Z as the low level jet pivots across the area.

Southwest winds of 15-20kts, with gusts around 30kts, will develop during this time period before decreasing briefly between 10z-15z. Winds will become more westerly at 15-20kts, with gusts of 25-30kts, after 15z until sunset.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.