textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend, with readings soaring to near record warmth on Sunday. However, a strong cold front will cross the area Sunday night. This will bring gusty winds Sunday night and Monday and much below normal temperatures through next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Surface high pressure passes to the north of the region this afternoon and builds over the northeast US later this evening and tonight. Moisture south of the high pressure provides considerable cloudiness today, but there will be some potential for breaks in the clouds later this afternoon across the Ohio River region. The high pressure shifting to the northeast means that the light northeasterly winds during the morning are beginning to shift to the southeast.

Overnight, the warm front that is south of the region will begin to move northward. Scattered showers are expected into Sunday morning, but there will also be the potential for fog. While the coverage is a bit uncertain, dense fog is a possibility, especially across eastern Indiana and Ohio, as the front lifts north through Sunday morning.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

As mentioned previously, some fog, possibly dense, is expected to be ongoing Sunday morning. The warm front continues to lift northward through the state of Ohio, with strengthening southwesterly flow providing an impressive warm up during the afternoon area wide. Within the warm sector of the approaching low pressure, some showers remain possible, but confidence is fairly high that there will be a period of mostly dry conditions Sunday late afternoon and early evening before the cold front moves in. Some cloud cover may limit the warmest temperatures, but overall, the forecast indicates the potential for near record warm temperatures.

Record highs for 12/28: CVG 67 in 1984 CMH 68 in 1984 DAY 64 in 1984

In addition to the warm temperatures, a strengthening LLJ will be present over the area during the afternoon and early evening, providing gusty winds at times. Cloud cover will limit deeper mixing heights so wind gusts are likely capped in the 30 to 35 mph range.

Severe threat: A Marginal Risk for severe weather remains in place for the cold front as it quickly moves in Sunday evening and moves through during the overnight hours.

The thunderstorm line of concern is likely to be its most organized/strongest over Indiana and southern Illinois early Sunday evening. During that time frame, some instability is present, supporting the potential for organized thunderstorm activity. As the line approaches the local area between 8 and 9 pm, the available instability becomes even more negligible, likely limiting the amount of thunder (if any) within the line. Despite this, the front is still very organized, with a well defined pressure trough. This could be enough to support a few enhanced damaging wind gusts as the line of heavy showers/downpours moves through.

After the severe threat, temperatures plummet quickly as blustery westerly winds continue through the rest of the overnight into Monday morning. There may be some 40 to 50 mph wind gusts within the line before a general lull to 25 to 35 mph. Winds associated with the strong low pressure centered to the north will amplify again throughout Monday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The main concerns for the long term are strong gusty winds Monday, continued dropping temperatures with snow showers Monday creating potential slick conditions, single digit wind chills Monday into Tuesday morning, clipper system bringing the potential for a quick shot of snow late New Years Eve into New Years Day, and the potential for negative single digit wind chill values Thursday night into Friday morning.

Gusty winds, dropping temperatures, and potential slick spots. With the cold front moving through Sunday night, temperatures by Monday morning will be in the 20s and 30s and then dropping the rest of the way into the 20s during the day. Some snow showers are expected as the colder air moves in. Cannot rule out some slick spots Monday into Monday night with the snow showers and residual moisture. Wind gusts during the day on Monday are expected to reach advisory level and increased wind gusts again during the day. Winds will likely gust 40 to 50 mph at times. With the winds and cooler air moving in, single digit wind chill values are expected Monday into Tuesday morning.

While there are differences in location and strength of a system moving through overnight New Years Eve into New Years Day, there are still enough signals to increase snowfall chances back into the chance category during this time in order to heighten awareness of this feature. The cool airmass combined with this expected snow and clearing skies Thursday night will allow for temperatures to drop into the single digits to teens. Wind chill values will be in the negative single digits to single digits. Temperatures will only recover into the 20s to around freezing on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Still dealing with a mixture of IFR/MVFR CIGs this afternoon, but improvement to MVFR is expected over the next few hours. Additionally, some breaks in the cloud cover are forecast to develop across CVG/LUK. This is already starting to occur across central Kentucky.

The biggest question is how far north do the improvements make it before restrictions return overnight into Sunday morning as a warm front lifts northward. Additional MVFR/IFR CIGs persist throughout the rest of the TAF. Between 11Z-15Z, some fog potential exists with the warm front as it moves through. For now, the highest confidence in lower VIS remains at DAY with MVFR VIS elsewhere.

After the warm front moves through, winds will begin to increase with gusts of 20-25 knots being mentioned. Higher gusts are possible but remnant cloud cover may keep these limited until the cold front moves through after 00Z Monday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.