textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Increased signal for showers/storms during holiday weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of dense fog this morning.

2) Hot and humid conditions this week.

3) Showers/storms possible during holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Stalled frontal boundary near our CWA, combined with saturated low levels and calm winds has resulted in areas of fog this morning. Some of the fog has become locally dense, particularly in north- central KY and portions of the Scioto Valley. OHGO cameras showed enough fog impacts to roadways to warrant a Dense Fog Advisory in our southeastern counties during the early morning hours. Fog is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

No modifications to the current headlines as the forecast generally remains on track.

Notably warmer temperatures arrive today with increased H5 heights. With dewpoints also remaining in the 70s, heat indicies will begin to approach the middle 90s to lower 100s. Portions of central OH down through north-central KY likely have heat indicies remain in the 90s. Thus, have continued to keep some of these counties out of the Heat Advisory for today.

By Tuesday, the H5 ridge broadens and becomes more amplified across the Midwest region. Confidence increases in Heat Advisory criteria being reached Tuesday through Thursday, which is why the headline is being held active through Thursday. Still cannot rule out potential upgrade to an Extreme Heat Warning for any of these days depending on how model guidance trends. It does still appear that the hottest temperatures will arrive midweek when the ridge is strongest. Beyond Thursday, confidence is not high enough to keep a heat headline in effect as models continue to highlight increasing clouds, along with shower and thunderstorm chances.

KEY MESSAGE 3)

Global models and ensembles have been fairly consistent for several days now showing a more active pattern for the holiday weekend. By Friday, the mean axis of the ridge begins to shift eastward and the H5 ridge does begin to dampen a bit. The result is an increased potential for showers/thunderstorms as upper level forcing becomes enhanced, with several shortwaves rippling through portions of the Midwest region. Plenty of instability will be present as well given the hot/humid air mass in place, promoting more thunderstorm activity. While this potential synoptic pattern would increase convective activity, it will also limit the potential for extreme heat.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Vsbys expected to improve back to VFR near beginning of the taf period as the fog burns off. Cannot rule out some fog developing again tonight, with primary impacts at KLUK.

CIGs expected to remain VFR, but there will be a lot of passing clouds at various levels through the taf period.

Surface winds will become more predominant out of the SSW today, but should remain below 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ026-034- 035-042>044-051>053-060>062-070>072-077>081. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ073-074- 079>082-088. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for OHZ045-046- 054>056-063>065-073-074-082-088. KY...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ089>099. Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for KYZ097>100. Heat Advisory from noon Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for KYZ100. IN...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ050-058- 059-066-073>075-080.