textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A low pressure system will impact the Ohio Valley this weekend. This system will bring a chance for rain and snow, mainly during the day on Sunday. Seasonably cold temperatures will continue through much of next week, with multiple systems impacting the region during the mid to late week period.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Low clouds are once again hanging in across the region and will likely persist at least into early evening. However, in developing southerly flow/WAA we should start to see some erosion from the south as we head into tonight. This is ahead of a weakening low pressure system that will move out of the mid Mississippi Valley tonight. The low levels will begin to moisten back up ahead of this late tonight across our northwest. With an initial lack of deeper moisture, suppose it will be tough to rule out some patchy freezing drizzle late across our northwest, but do not expect this to amount to too much. Lows tonight will be in the mid to upper 20s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

The surface low will continue to weaken as a remnant cold front pushes southeast across our area through the day on Sunday. Some patchy freezing drizzle will remain possible into Sunday morning across parts of our north, but as the mid levels begin to moisten up, this should transition over to mainly snow through mid to late morning. Any accumulations should be an inch or less and primarily to the north of I-70. Pcpn chances will then taper off through the afternoon hours as the front moves through.

Some mid level energy will move into the Ohio Valley Sunday night and this may be enough to produce some scattered rain/snow showers in the vicinity of the frontal boundary pushing off to our south. Highs on Sunday will range from the mid 30s north to the lower 40s south. Colder air will begin to filter back into the region behind the front Sunday night, with overnight lows ranging from the single digits northwest to the lower 20s southeast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

On Monday morning, a large area of surface high pressure will be centered over the lower peninsula of Michigan. Heights will be rising over the Ohio Valley, as the surface high eventually expands and connects to another area of high pressure over the lower Mississippi Valley region. Dry conditions are expected Monday and Monday night, but with temperatures on Monday only reaching the mid 20s to lower 30s, despite an expected decrease in cloud cover.

An active mid-level flow pattern will become established across the northern tier of the CONUS through the rest of the week, though the impacts for the Ohio Valley are somewhat uncertain, given that the more consistent signal for precipitation looks to remain north of the area. The first wave associated with this pattern will move across Michigan on Tuesday, but moisture will be lacking with southward extent, and precipitation will likely be limited to just some light snow or flurries (with no expected impacts) in the far northern ILN counties. The more notable impact to the weather on Tuesday will be a sustained period of southwesterly flow, bringing temperatures above freezing across the entire forecast area by Tuesday afternoon. Some 20-25 knot wind gusts are also expected.

The next wave on Tuesday night into Wednesday is also expected to track east across Michigan, but it will be more well-defined, with stronger forcing and a little more moisture to work with. Precipitation is expected to begin as rain Tuesday night into Wednesday, with continued warm advection overnight, and temperatures reaching the 40s for most (if not all) of the forecast area by Wednesday. Gusty conditions are expected Wednesday as well, perhaps even a little more so than on Tuesday. Eventually, by late in the day Wednesday, the passage of a cold front will bring cooler temperatures and a transition to snow. Very low confidence in any potential accumulations Wednesday night into Thursday, but early indications suggest the amounts will not be significant.

Beyond Thursday, confidence in the timing of additional shortwaves in this active weather pattern becomes quite a bit lower. With cooler air in place, there may be some chances for snow at some point in the Friday/Saturday time frame. There is, however, reasonable confidence in cold conditions from Friday night through Saturday night, with lows possibly in the single digits.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR clouds will persist into this evening but may begin to break up heading into tonight in developing southerly low level flow. The best chance for this appears to be at the southern TAF sites. Otherwise, a cold front will approach from the northwest later tonight and then move southeast across our area through the day on Sunday. MVFR to locally IFR clouds will be possible ahead of the front. Some patchy freezing drizzle may develop early Sunday morning along and north of I-70 before transitioning over to areas of light snow. This will lead to the potential for some MVFR to locally IFR vsby restrictions late in the period at the northern TAF sites

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR CIGs likely Wednesday into Thursday. Gusty winds possible Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.