textproduct: Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A strong system will bring primarily rain to start tonight and then snow and windy conditions to the region on Wednesday and into Wednesday night. Another system is expected to bring accumulating snow to the region Thursday night into Friday, with yet another system coming in as the day progresses Saturday into Saturday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Clouds from this morning have exited most of the local area, leaving behind mostly sunny skies and breezy conditions. Regular wind gusts between 25 and 35 mph continue this afternoon before gradually decreasing this evening.

The mostly clear skies don't last for long as a potent shortwave and low pressure moves into the region tonight and moves through the day on Wednesday. Later tonight, winds will ramp back up in response to the tightening pressure gradient as the low pressure approaches. While the strongest winds are likely to remain above the surface, as precipitation moves into the area, wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph may become more common, especially in areas with higher terrain. An SPS will be used to cover this threat due to lower confidence in advisory levels winds being realized.

Additionally, as precipitation moves in during the early morning hours, temperatures at the surface and aloft support all liquid. However, depending on the precipitation intensity, dynamic cooling from aloft to closer to the ground may support snow mixing in with rain. This will be most common in elevated areas (Bellefontaine ridge down through Wilmington) where cold air will be realized much closer to the ground. Above freezing surface temperatures would limit any minor accumulations to elevated/grassy areas.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Messy conditions forecast to start the day with ongoing precipitation primarily consisting of rain with snow mixing in. During the mid-morning, a dry slot in the deeper moisture moves in from west to east, switching precipitation away from stratiform to more showery. Precipitation will likely be all rain during the mid- morning before colder air helps to begin the transition from rain to snow throughout the afternoon. Can't rule out a few heavier snow showers during the transition, but surface temperatures look to be above freezing until later in the evening, likely decreasing impacts associated with the snow showers.

Wind gusts remain in the 30 to 40 mph range throughout the day as the cold front moves through. Some gusts up to 45 mph are possible, but currently look infrequent enough to warrant an advisory at this time. These higher wind gusts begin to decrease into the evening hours, but they will remain in the lower 20s throughout the overnight.

During the evening and through the overnight, snow showers & flurries likely continue with the combination of moisture moving southeast from Lake Michigan and a weak shortwave moving through. Temperatures and moisture profiles on forecasting soundings show saturation within the DGZ, therefore PoPs were increased from the NBM. Some minor snow accumulations are expected overnight area wide, and higher amounts are possible where heavier snow showers occur. Slick spots are likely from Wednesday evening through Thursday morning as temperatures drop into the mid and upper 20s. Scattered snow showers are also likely to continue into early Thursday morning.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

The northern extent of a surface high to the south briefly noses into the Ohio Valley on Thursday. Cold and mostly dry conditions are expected.

The next chance for rain and snow arrives by Friday morning when a weak surface low moves trough the region. The arrival time of precipitation varies between model runs from the late overnight Thursday to the morning commute on Friday. Precipitation then lasts through at least Friday morning. Snow is the favored precipitation type in the ensemble guidance north of the Ohio River while mixed precipitation has higher probabilities near and south of the river. Accumulating snow of at least an inch Friday morning is likely although exact amounts and locations are highly uncertain at this time. Travel impacts are certainly possible for at least the Friday morning commute.

The Friday system quickly exits to the east by late Friday leaving cold and dry air in place for Friday night through Saturday morning. The next weather maker then moves into the area late Saturday with the arrival of arctic air. Snow is likely to occur on the edge of the cold air with the best chances for over an inch being along and north of I-70. Snow to liquid ratios should support high snow values with very low QPF. Travel impacts Saturday night could linger given the very cold air settling into the region for Sunday. Forecast lows Saturday night drop into the single digits to teens with wind chills possibly going below zero. Dangerously cold air remains in place through Sunday night before moderating Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Earlier gusts from this late day have calmed down with the stratifying of the air. Still expect 12-14kt g18-20kt in the next few hours. Lljet enters CWA a little before 06Z and stronger, gusty winds will be picking up around that time, thinking 14-16g30kt. In northern CWA, sustained winds will pick up even more as rain enters from the nw, with 18-22g35kt possible. The rain is a relatively quick shot in a 2-3 hour time frame, but low clouds, continued gusty winds, and vsby restrictions are likely to remain the course of the day north of CVG/LUK. Low end MVFR cigs are expected, and in the north towards DAY/CMH/LCK IFR cigs should prevail behind fropa and precip.

While winds may begin to calm down around 00Z at CVG/LUK, it should only drop slightly over remaining terminals. What will improve in the late day is vsbys, and any IFR cigs should lift into MVFR closer to 00Z.

OUTLOOK...MVFR to IFR conditions possible Thurs night through Sat.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.