textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers a few thunderstorms will persist into tonight as a cold front moves slowly south of the region. Behind the front, drier conditions and cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday.

2) Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday with the potential for heavy rain. Additional chances for precipitation will continue through the holiday weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Showers and a few thunderstorms will continue to lift northeast across the region through this evening along a cold front that will be pushing slowly south of the Ohio River. Some training of storms will be possible across our far southeast and with PWs still in the 1.6 to 1.8 range, this is where the concern for heavier rain and localized flooding will exist into the evening hours. This area has not received as much rain as the rest of our area over the last couple of days though and with 1hr FFG closer to 1.5 inches, have opted to hold off on an FFA attm.

Shower activity will gradually taper off from the northwest through the overnight hours but this drying may be slow enough that a few showers linger across our southeast into Thursday morning. Otherwise, a cooler airmass will continue to filter into the area behind the front with highs on Thursday in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A mid level short wave will lift out of the lower Mississippi Valley Thursday night and across the Ohio Valley through the day on Friday as an associated surface low/wave pivots up into the western Great Lakes through Saturday. Ahead of this, a 30-40 knot 850 mb jet will rotate up through our area Friday afternoon/evening. Surface based instabilities look to be fairly marginal at best during this time so this should help limit any severe threat. However, still expect fairly widespread showers and embedded thunderstorm activity to overspread the region through the day on Friday and continue into Friday night. PWs will again bump up into the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range so some localized flooding will be possible again Friday afternoon into Friday night.

Broad, moist southwest flow will continue through the remainder of the holiday weekend as we remain situated between some mid level short wave energy moving across the Great Lakes and the northern periphery of a mid level ridge over the southeast CONUS. This will result in occasional chances for showers and thunderstorms into early next. Temperatures will moderate with afternoon highs mostly in the upper 70s to around 80 degrees through the weekend.

AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Widespread showers and some embedded thunderstorms will continue into this evening as a cold front moves slowly south of the region. Pcpn will gradually taper off from the northwest later this evening and through the overnight hours as the cold front moves off to the south. Fairly widespread IFR cigs will persist into this evening before gradually transitioning from the northwest into MVFR and eventually VFR overnight into Thursday morning.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible Friday into Saturday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.