textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Periods of showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur into the early evening. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

2) An extended period of dry weather will occur from Thursday into at least the early next week with temperatures generally within a few degrees of normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Showers across the northern part of the forecast area are occurring on the nose of a modest southwesterly low level jet. As the low level jet curves off to the east, sheared out mid level energy will pass across the region in confluent flow later this morning. This will create a west to east zone for continue development of showers and possibly some thunderstorms. Precipitable water is increasing to 1.6-1.8 inches and the warm cloud depth is around 3.5 km. This all lead to the potential for locally heavy rain and possibly repeated rounds of showers. 00Z HREF and REFS are in pretty good agreement placing the maximum rainfall axis in proximity to the I-70 corridor.

A short wave approaching from the northwest will cause everything to shift southeast through the afternoon with the possibility that some activity could linger into the early evening in far southeast counties. Convective allowing guidance does show streaks of heavier precipitation during this time frame, generally in a west northwest- east southeast orientation but there is more variability in the location of these corridors. In addition, CAPE will increase to 1000-1500 J/Kg with 0-6 km shear of 20-25 kt. So a few stronger storms could develop with wind being the primary hazard beyond the heavy rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2) An omega block will develop across North America for the latter part of the week and into next week. Surface high pressure will prevail. This will allow the region to dry out. Temperatures will generally be within +/- 3 degrees of normal with some minor fluctuations from day to day.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Generally IFR ceilings to start will lift to MVFR. Showers and thunderstorms will move across the terminals. Have attempted to time out windows with the greatest potential for thunder and/or additional restrictions. The precipitation will move off to the southeast of all the terminals by 22Z. After the showers and storms end, conditions will become VFR as lower clouds lift and scatter with skies eventually becoming clear. There is the potential for some shallow fog at KLUK late in the period.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ042>046-051>056-060>065- 070>074-077>082-088. KY...Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ089>100. IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080.