textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of dry weather will continue through at least Thursday. Temperatures will start the week generally near or slightly below climatological normals.

2) Temperatures begin to warm by the end of the week and chances for showers and thunderstorms will develop as we head into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

A swath a mid-level moisture is currently stretched from northwest to southeast over the region. Throughout the day, elevated showers will attempt to saturate very dry air in the lower levels of the atmosphere as observed by the 00Z ILN sounding. It appears the best chance for this will be across our southwest, where the mid level moisture will be the highest.

A reinforcing shortwave trough moves through the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning. Northwesterly surface winds increase as surface high pressure builds over the region. The high pressure persists through the entire work with, slowly drifting south by the end of the week. This will result in mainly dry conditions through the end of the work week with temperatures gradually moderating from the cooler values observed early in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

Surface high pressure will move off to the southeast late in the week/over the weekend as mid level short wave energy moves across the Great Lakes region. Deep-level steering flow will become more southwesterly, increasing temperatures and moisture into the the mid Ohio Valley. Even though temperatures and moisture support a more humid environment, the lack of forcing does not support rainfall on Friday. Therefore, the forecast continues to trend drier for Friday. The shortwave that would usher in deeper moisture and better forcing is now expected Friday night into Saturday morning. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase and continue through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Temperatures will remain a few degrees above normal over the weekend, with daytime highs in the low to mid 80s.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR through the period with just high and mid clouds passing across the region and perhaps a few sprinkles or brief showers. Winds remain light and out of the north this morning, becoming more northeasterly today into Tuesday. Northeasterly winds increase above 10 knots gusting up to 20 knots Tuesday mid morning through afternoon.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.