textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated precipitation potential for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Decaying showers and thunderstorms may move into the area late tonight.

2) The chance for showers and thunderstorms continues through Wednesday, with scattered showers and cooler conditions expected during the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1)

Showers and thunderstorms that have developed across northern Illinois will track east southeast through the evening into the overnight hours. This activity will be weakening as it approaches the region, but there is an increasing potential that it holds together long enough to move into western counties before daybreak. Not sure there will be much if any thunder by the time it gets this far east as CAPE is forecast to be minimal at most. Activity will be elevated with the probability of hazardous weather low.

KEY MESSAGE 2)

A shortwave trough digs into the Midwest and Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday. At the surface, a cold front moves south into the CWA on Tuesday, gradually moving through Tuesday night into Wednesday. The front slows down as waves of weak low pressure ripple northeast along this boundary Tuesday night. This will allow for the a period of unsettled weather to develop. Showers and scattered thunderstorms are possible through Thursday. Ensemble probabilities of > 1" of rain ramp up to 80 percent or more especially across southeast Indiana and southwest Ohio, with a 20-30% chance of 2" or more of rainfall from Tuesday through early Wednesday. Most solutions produce a 1 to 2 inch rainfall, with a trend slightly lower in the past 24 hours. Will continue to monitor for the potential for small stream flooding, though with the seasonal transition into early May, 1-2" rainfall over 24 hours may not pose an issue.

Although the surface cold front settles south of the area by late Wednesday, influence from the mid level trough will keep unsettled conditions (showers) in the forecast through the rest of the week, along with below normal temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Developing low level jet will spread across the terminals early in the period resulting in low level wind shear. Some of this may be able to break through an inversion and allow for some gusts around 20 kt. Conditions will be VFR, but will be watching showers and thunderstorms that have formed across northern Illinois. This activity should be weakening as it approaches the region, but there was enough of a chance to include some showers in KDAY and KCVG/KLUK. Probability was too low at other terminals at this point as further weakening will be taking place.

Gusty southerly winds will occur once again during the day. Low level moisture will be increasing ahead of an approaching cold front. This will cause ceilings to lower, falling to MVFR during the latter part of the period. Showers and thunderstorms will start moving into the area as well with coverage increasing late. Ceilings may fall to IFR from KDAY to KCVG/KLUK before 00Z with more persistent precipitation. KDAY may also experience a frontal passage before the end of the period.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms will remain possible Tuesday night. IFR ceilings and MVFR visibilities will continue into Tuesday night with ceilings improving to MVFR on Wednesday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.