textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light showers, mainly south of I-70, will diminish from northwest to southeast through early this evening in the wake of a departing cold front, followed by decreasing cloud.

2) After this evening's showers end, expect generally dry conditions along with below normal temperatures through early next week. Temperatures then warm back to somewhat above normal by next Friday.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1)

A weak upper level trough moving east over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley is supporting a cold front which exited to the southeast of the area during the day Friday. The front is over WV and eastern KY as of late Friday, but moisture overrunning the boundary is still allowing for showers as far north as far southern OH.

The current upper trough will depart to the east tonight and the front will slow down or stall in the vicinity of the southern Appalachians. This will be enough progress for drier air to arrive from the north, put an end to precip, and break up clouds. Another upper level trough will approach the Great Lakes Saturday night, and overrunning moisture will head northward again. At this point, it looks like there won't be anything more than clouds showing up over the ILN forecast area, with precip remaining to the south.

Key Message 2)

The models are in generally good agreement with west northwest flow dominating aloft through the middle of next week from the northern Rockies through the middle Atlantic region. The upper level flow will then become more zonal across the northern half of the CONUS by the end of the week. For the Ohio Valley, mainly dry weather can be expected. Near normal temperatures on Sunday will cool off to about 10 degrees below normal for early next week, thanks to Canadian surface high pressure that will migrate from the northern/central Plains to the Ohio Valley by Tuesday. This surface high will then move off to the western Atlantic by Wednesday, with a weak cold front to pass through the Ohio Valley Thursday into Friday, although moisture looks limited at this time. Temperatures will gradually warm across the region after Tuesday, reaching back to somewhat above normal by Friday.

Sensible weather will feature generally decreasing clouds across the area on Sunday. Mostly sunny skies will dominate north of I-70, with clouds hanging in near the KY border through early afternoon, thanks to a departing system to the southeast. Mostly clear nights and mostly sunny days will then be the rule from Sunday night through the majority of the upcoming work week. The coolest temperatures will be in place from Monday through Wednesday morning, with highs mainly in the 60s and lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Depending upon how low dew points can get preceding both Monday night and Tuesday night, a few sheltered locations could dip into the mid 30s, with some spotty frost possible. Temperatures will then moderate each day through Friday, with highs warming through the 70s and lows in the mid to upper 40s.

AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A mix of mostly IFR and MVFR conditions (mainly due to ceilings) were present at TAF issuance. There were also some spotty showers, mainly near and south of the Ohio River. The inclement weather is associated with a cold front which passed earlier and is dropping south of the area. As it continues to depart, any remaining showers will taper off this afternoon and evening, but restrictions due to ceilings will last a bit longer. However, ceilings will also eventually rise and break up generally from north to south. Mainly VFR conditions are expected area wide by about 02Z and then lasting into Wednesday afternoon.

Northerly winds around 10 kts this afternoon will drop toward 5 kts tonight and become northeasterly.

OUTLOOK...No significant weather is expected.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...None. KY...None. IN...None.