textproduct: Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mainly dry conditions will continue through Friday as temperatures gradually moderate. A chance for showers and thunderstorms will return over the weekend before we dry out again early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Daytime highs will begin to trend a few degrees warmer heading into the end of the week/weekend, with most of our CWA climbing back into the 80s by Friday. In addition, the air mass will start to become more humid as dewpoints increase back into the 60s this weekend. As a more tropical-like air mass hangs around, we will go through stretch where overnight lows remain in the 60s.

Models continue to hone in on the potential for showers/storms this weekend. This is in response to a breakdown of the omega block, allowing for an H5 trough to swing through the Ohio Valley. CAMs will help provide more insight on coverage/timing, but global models and ensembles are trending towards having the best coverage in precip Saturday night into Sunday. QPF footprint seems to be lowest between the Ohio River and I-70 corridor as the bulk of precip will fall during the overnight hours there. While some instability will be present, lower CAPE values overnight will result in fewer thunderstorms and thus limit the heavier, convective rainfall. There is some signal that the cold front will be slow enough that additional storms may fire off near/south of the Ohio River on Sunday, but will have to monitor trends in the frontal passage.

After the cold frontal passage this weekend, models are beginning to show more consensus in the redevelopment of an H5 ridge across the Midwest region. This will likely result in another warm and dry start to the work week.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Clouds will mainly be limited to occasional cirrus, with a slight chance of some fair weather cumulus development on Thursday afternoon. Winds will be light overnight, and then out of the SW on Thursday, mainly under 10 knots.

OUTLOOK...There is a chance for thunderstorms both Saturday and Sunday.

ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

OH...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for OHZ042-043-051-053-060>062-070-071-077-078. KY...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for KYZ091>093. IN...Air Quality Alert from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for INZ074.