textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Guidance is showing overnight lows for Mon night a bit warmer, but traditionally colder spots should drop into the mid 30s. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

2) Warmer temperatures and minimal rain chances will come ahead a cold front Wednesday into Thursday, before a big cool down for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

Dry high pressure will dominate the weather with large diurnal swings in temperatures and very cool overnight lows through Tues. As ridging aloft nudges in from the west, high temps are expected to rebound back into the mid 70s Mon through Thurs with a return flow setting up. Overnight lows in the 40s can be expected tonight and Mon night with some mid to upper 30s in traditionally colder spots, especially Mon night as another shot of dry and cooler air filters in behind a dry cold front. Overall, calm winds, clear skies, and dry air all support great radiational cooling, possibly a chance for frost overnight Mon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warmer temperatures and minimal rain chances will come ahead a cold front Wednesday into Thursday, before a big cool down for the weekend.

As minimal moisture returns beginning late Tues through Thurs, expect overnight lows to bounce back above normal and some cloud cover and very minimal chances of rain Wed and Thurs as deep mid to upper level trough digs into the Southeast with eventual passage of a cold front. This deep trough aloft may produce heights as low as 535 dam over the eastern Carolinas by late Fri, up to a 40 dam drop from Tues to Fri. Could see widespread 30s for overnight lows by the weekend and possibly frost/freeze potential. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around this broader trough, there is also at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR and dry through TAF period. Winds will be light and variable as dry high pressure migrates across the Carolinas.

Extended outlook...VFR through at least Wednesday. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday, but confidence is low and will depend on timing of the next system.

MARINE

Northerly winds will remain 10 kt or less as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Benign marine conditions will continue into early Thursday as winds come slowly around to the W-SW, mainly under 15 kts. Winds should increase Thurs into Fri with SW flow ahead of a cold front and gusty W to NW flow behind the front. Could see Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday.

Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters on Sunday will gradually subside through Monday into the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters, with a gradual decline thereafter, through early Wed. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while offshore- directed wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late late Thurs into the weekend in response to increasing winds associated with a cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.