textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief respite from the excessive heat will come before unseasonably hot weather returns again Thursday and Friday.

2) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A brief respite from the excessive heat will come before unseasonably hot weather returns again Thursday and Friday.

DESCRIPTION...A cold front will reach the coastal Carolinas late this morning. Dry air will filter in from the northwest behind it dropping pcp water values and dewpoint temps, especially across inland areas. As the front reaches the coast it will stall. A few showers are possible, mainly over NC associated with the front and may see a pop up shower associated with sea breeze later today, closer to the coast. Pcp water values will drop from near or above 2 inches to less than 1.5 inches and possibly as low as an inch across inland areas, especially west of I-95.

Should see above normal temps continue through today with high temps just above 90 most places, but the heat index values should remain below Heat Advisory levels (105+ degrees) as lower dewpoint air filters in from the NW. After a lull in the heat Tue/Wed the heat should return Thursday ahead of another cold front with the potential for heat indices reaching 105+ degrees, especially east of I-95.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides along with persistent positive tidal anomalies will lead to minor tidal flooding during evening high tide cycles.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Guidance and latest Sat imagery with accompanying sfc obs indicate cigs invof 1kft will occur thru 14Z. Should improve to VFR Ceilings after 14Z. A shower is also possible associated with the front, mainly closer to the coast this afternoon, ie. ILM/CRE/MYR. The sea breeze will also interact with the front continuing the threat for isolated showers, maybe a tstrm. But, confidence remains low and will just mention in the discussion and negate from placing in the coastal TAFS. Winds generally becoming W to NW around 10 kt this morning and continuing thru the day. Exception will be the coastal terminals where the sea breeze albeit limited progression inland, will force winds to back to the SW around 10 kt this afternoon, late for the ILM terminal. Winds generally drop to less than 5 kt after sunset with directions veering to the NW or NE.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR expected through the week but a wave of low pressure developing along the front will keep at least a low risk for showers/storms through midweek, especially closer to the coast. An approaching stronger cold front will bring a moderate to high risk for showers/storms Fri.

MARINE

Today through Friday...A cold front will reach the coastal Carolinas by early this afternoon, but will stall leaving W to NW flow over the land and SW flow continuing over the waters. Low pressure should develop along the front and should move north along the coast through mid week. Marine conditions should worsen again starting Thu as another cold front approaches with a Small Craft Advisory a good bet across the nearshore waters with gusts near gale force beyond 20 nm, mainly north of Cape Fear.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.