textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy fog was expanded to cover much of the forecast area tonight. Some of this fog could be dense at times. Aviation discussion updated for the routine 00Z issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland.

2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland.

Deep high pressure over the area with unseasonably warm mid- level temperatures will help sustain above normal temperatures through Thursday, especially well inland closer to I-95. Highs for Florence and Lumberton have been 90+ since May 17, so a 5-day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of 4 days of 90+ degree temps from April 15-18. Coastal areas will remain significantly cooler due to the southerly winds bringing cooler air from off the Atlantic inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas.

Outside of widely scattered sea breeze convection Thursday afternoon, most of daytime Thursday will remain dry. A front dropping south late in the day before stalling, combined with increasing PWATs due to influx of Gulf moisture with developing low- level southerly flow, will slowly increase rain chances Thursday night into Friday. As CAD wedge develops to our northwest Friday into the weekend, a coastal trough/front lingers across the eastern Carolinas maintaining unsettled weather and likely pops Friday through Sunday with PWATs of 1.5+" in place. While weak impulses aloft and low-level isentropic lift will aid in our elevated rain chances Friday - Sunday, precipitation coverage will be more scattered in nature with potential for brief pockets convective, slightly heavier, rain rates. Looking at LREF (ensemble) guidance, a decent total QPF range remains for Thursday through Sunday, ranging from 0.5" to 2" near I-95 corridor and 0.2" to 1.25" close to the coast. Our area can certainly use the rain to help with our ongoing severe-extreme drought conditions.

Rain chances continue into early next week in WAA regime following breakdown of the CAD, although more uncertainty exists as offshore ridge attempts to build westward.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR through 06Z tonight. Light boundary layer winds, clear skies, and near-surface moisture should produce areas of fog overnight. Some fog could be dense, best chance will be east of I-95, especially ILM. Conditions favor fog at CRE/MYR, possibly dense, but if onshore flow maintains some light mixing, the shallow fog may not develop as expected. Inland areas should also see fog, some dense. However, boundary layer winds will remain elevated slightly longer than coastal counterparts. This could limit the depth of fog, hence the inclusion of BR rather than FG. Similar conditions on Thursday to previous days with the Bermuda high driving an afternoon sea breeze day. A stray shower is possible during the afternoon, but chances are too low to provide meaningful detail at this time.

Extended Forecast... MVFR vsbys/cigs are possible each morning (mainly in the 08z-12z timeframe) through Friday morning. Restrictions are also possible due to showers/storms starting on Friday and continuing through the weekend. Coastal terminals may see less shower activity due to the sea breeze.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer- like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure. Southerly winds will mostly be 10-15 kt or less, although locally higher near the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm tonight and near the coast due to the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. Waves will continue to be dominated by 2- 4 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells.

Thursday Night through Monday...Bermuda high pressure offshore will maintain southerly winds across the local waters Thursday night into early next week. Wind speeds generally in the 10-15 kts range throughout the period, with gusts near 20 kts for the 20-60nm waters. Seas fairly steady around 3 ft out to 20nm, and 4 ft out to 60nm, primarily due to SE swell. Lingering front inland through the weekend, along with WAA regime, will lead to daily rain and thunderstorm chances, particularly during overnight hours for the coastal waters starting Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.