textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend.

High pressure will shift offshore allowing a warm front to lift north through the area today bringing unseasonably warm temperatures near 70 most locales. A cold front will then move through Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing some mainly light rain, generally up to around a quarter of an inch. High pressure will then return with dry and cooler weather through late week with low rain chances Friday through Saturday evening. Rain chances will then likely increase Saturday night through at least Sunday night as a more potent storm system impacts the area. Although there remains some uncertainty in the evolution of this system the risk for any hazardous weather appears to be quite low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Breezy southwesterly winds will develop this morning as strong heating mixes upward into increasing southwest flow aloft. A period of gusty winds around 15-20 kts may occur during peak heating (18-21Z) as the boundary layer deepens, but a lingering subsidence inversion may be strong enough to preclude mixing these stronger winds down. Otherwise, all sites should anticipate LLWS due to WSW flow tonight as a cold front approaches. Cig restrictions and precip should hold off until just beyond the end of this 24 hr TAF period.

Extended Forecast...Intermittent sea fog may impact the coastal terminals tonight into early Wednesday prior to a cold frontal passage. The front is likely to bring a period of restrictions on Wednesday due to rain and low clouds. VFR is expected to return Wednesday night and dominate through the end of the week, with restrictions possible again on Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Offshore high pressure will cause winds to settle on southwesterly today and increase to around 15-20 kts tonight. Seas will respond to this increase in winds with 1-3 ft waves this morning rising to 3-5 ft tonight. Gusts to around 25kts and seas up to 6 ft are possible in the outer waters near 20nmi southeast of Cape Fear, but too little of the coastal water zones around Cape Fear are included for a Small Craft Advisory across an entire zone. Nevertheless, small craft operators should use caution, especially if venturing 10-20 nmi southeast of Cape Fear. Seas will consist of southwesterly wind waves and lingering 1-3 ft easterly swells with a period of 12-13 sec.

Wednesday through Saturday night...No significant concerns thru the period. There is a low risk for marginal SCA conditions (gusts around 25 kt and 6 ft seas) Wed and again late Sat night. Also, there is a low risk for sea fog Wed due to a slightly moister air mass moving in ahead of the cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.