textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No major changes to the previous forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.
2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.
We enter a more typical precipitation pattern with showers and storms primarily in the afternoon with the sea breeze under a wide field of high pressure. Dry air may lower coverage tomorrow and Saturday before moisture returns from the south Sunday. Into early next week the high will strengthen with rain chances isolated to scattered, most likely on the sea breeze in the afternoon and then inland in the evening.
KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F.
As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting as early as Sunday but more likely Monday.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
Intermittent restrictions in showers/storms possible through the first 6 hrs of the TAF period starting near the coast and then for inland terminals. Then tonight there is the threat of fog and low stratus, mainly at inland terminals at this time, starting ~09Z but the timing will need refining. A similar, afternoon shower/storm pattern is expected Friday, but coverage will be lower.
Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day.
MARINE
Tonight through Monday...Sub-SCA conditions through the period with winds averaging out of the south ~10-15 kt. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. Seas will average 2- 4 ft with a persistent 7-8 second SE swell.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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