textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moving west-to-east across the region will bring rain Friday night and Saturday. Warming trend and rain-free conditions are then expected heading into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure will settle into the region today. Little to no cold air advection following the overnight trough will allow temperatures to warm a few degrees compared to yesterday. Highs in the mid and upper 50s to start the New Year.

Winds turn southwesterly tonight which will bring some weak warm air advection aloft. Resulting lows will be in the mid 30s tonight.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Slight warming and dry Friday with plenty of high clouds. Highs in the low 60s. The main feature of the short term remains a low pressure system moving across the lower Mississippi Valley Friday night, moving over SC late Saturday. This will lead to prolonged rain chances during the day Saturday with deep isentropic lift ahead of the low, followed by PVA associated with parent upper shortwave Saturday evening . Guidance has come up a bit on QPF for the event, with current forecast of 0.75-1" of rain for the area. Lingering cool air inland while the low tracks along the SC coast will lead to a gradient in high temps Saturday, with low 50s inland and to the north with around 60F to the south and along the coast. Rain will tape off Saturday night, with lingering low clouds through Sunday morning keeping lows in the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Dry weather with high pressure and a warming trend will dominate majority of the long term period. A coastal trough will try to develop early next week, but dry air over land will keep any rain chances off the coast. Below normal temps Sunday into Monday will quickly warm to above normal for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in VFR throughout the period.

Extended Forecast... MVFR and IFR conditions likely in rain Saturday and Saturday night as a storm system impacts the area. VFR late this weekend into next week.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Breezy winds continue this morning as a surface trough pushes offshore. Gusts should weaken around sunrise with high pressure quickly building southward into the region today. Light westerly winds shift slightly this evening as high pressure shifts offshore.

Friday through Monday...Southwest winds and seas prevail over the coastal waters Friday into Friday night. Low pressure system is forecasted to move across SC late Saturday, moving off the coast Saturday evening, bringing widespread light to moderate rain Saturday into early Saturday night. South-southwest winds and seas increase just ahead of the low Saturday afternoon before quickly veering to northerly overnight into Sunday morning as the low exits to the northeast. Winds and seas peak late Saturday night into Sunday morning, around 20 kts and 3-5 ft waves, with marginal SCA conditions across outer coastal waters. High pressure building inland will lead to improving marine conditions heading into next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.