textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track for the main forecast package. Rain chances for this afternoon were brought down slightly.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Isolated Storms Possible This Afternoon; Above Normal Temperatures Continue.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Isolated Storms Possible This Afternoon; Above Normal Temperatures Continue.

Latest surface analysis shows deepening low pressure near the Illinois/Indiana border, associated with the next frontal system due to enter the Carolinas late tonight.

Prior to this front, relatively flat steering flow will continue, in between a few weak shortwaves. Despite precipitable water values above 1.8", drier air in the mid-levels will help suppress convective activity this afternoon. Seabreeze may try to initiate a few storms, which will push inland from there. Plenty of instability to work with, and the DCAPE hovers around 1200 J/kg, so isolated storms have the potential to produce damaging wind gusts. Overall though, severe weather activity should be displaced to the north. Highs get into the low-to-mid 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast. Triple digits expected for the inland areas, but will fall short of Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees).

Front will move through the area Tuesday, bringing some better rain chances with it, though lackluster shortwave energy weakens the system. No day in particular this week appears to be a washout, so drought relief does not appear to be likely. Triple digit heat indices will be in play for most of this week, where Heat Advisories may be needed by the weekend. Still expecting better moisture return on Friday, bringing the best rain and storm chances of the week, but forecast guidance has trended downward a bit this cycle.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Areas of low stratus have developed inland from the coast and have a moderate potential to affect KLBT through 12z. There is a decreasing probability for impacts between 12-14z when VFR conditions should develop at KLBT. Stratus has a low potential to affect FLO through 12-13z. Prevailing VFR conditions the remainder of the day have only a low potential to become interrupted by isolated showers and thunderstorms. These could affect KILM after 16z along the seabreeze front, and KLBT/KFLO after 18z in association with an upper level shortwave moving eastward. Any lingering convective activity should dissipate with the loss of daytime heating this evening.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during scattered afternoon and evening storms on Tuesday and again on Friday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SSW winds at a gentle to moderate breeze will build up towards a fresh breeze out of the SW by tonight. Gusts up to 20-23 kts likely, and it wouldn't be surprising if they surpassed 25 kts at times. But I'm not sure yet if the gradient winds will be consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory over the northeast SC waters. Holding off on that idea for now. Seas at 1-2 ft increase with the wind, up to 2-4 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, and 4-5 ft out 60 nm.

Tuesday through Friday...Fresh breeze out of the SW continues for much of Tuesday ahead of a cold front. The front moves through Tuesday night, quickly veering the winds to the NW and then NE by Wednesday morning, improving to a moderate breeze. Onshore flow begins again Wednesday evening, with seas improving to 2-3 ft. Winds veer to the SSW again Thursday night through Friday, increasing to a fresh breeze once more. Seas increase slightly to 3-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None.