textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Tropical Depression 9 has officially formed in the Gulf, with maximum sustained winds near 35 mph with higher gusts. Steady strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm by early Wednesday and a hurricane on Thursday. Next name on the list is Isaias (pronounced "ees-ah- EE-ahs").

No direct impacts expected for the Carolinas, but we do expect there to be a lot of tropical moisture that gets pulled into the area. Very rainy forecast still on track for later this weekend.

No major changes coming down the track as we hit 8 PM EDT. Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

2) Unsettled weather may return this weekend with confidence increasing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

Modified Canadian High pressure centered north of the area under broad mid-level troughing will keep the region dry through at least Fri. Temperatures slightly below normal today return near normal Wed through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather may return this weekend with confidence increasing.

Anticipated tropical activity well to the south and west will interact with a large and quite moist atmospheric river moving over the area to provide another good rain event this weekend. Although still a few days out confidence is increasing with development of a tropical system moving into the lower Mississippi Valley with deep isentropic lift setting up over our area late Saturday through Sunday. Total rainfall amounts could be in a range of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts. Temperatures will be somewhat above average citing the moisture and there doesn't appear to be much if any cold air advection early next week when conditions dry out.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Old frontal boundary located offshore several hundred miles south of the area, but is producing enough cloud cover to create some VFR ceilings of 4000-6000 ft at the coast. SKC inland near KFLO and KLBT. NE winds at 4-6 kts will continue through most of the period, calming by 21-22Z Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...VFR through at least Friday evening, outside of any patchy morning fog. Flight restrictions may return Saturday, but confidence is low.

MARINE

Small craft advisory conditions will persist across the waters through tonight ceasing at 3 AM. The flow will generally remain from the NE through the period although becoming very light by Thursday. By very late in the period an east to southeast flow develops ahead of the next system with small craft to gale conditions possible. Significant seas will follow the winds with 4-6 feet this evening falling to 2-3 feet by Thursday with another increase late in the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.