textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale Watch upgraded to a Gale Warning for the coastal waters extending from midnight Wednesday through 6 AM EDT Thursday. A Fire Danger Statement has been issued for much of northeast SC today. Dry and breezy conditions will continue on Wednesday. Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of hazardous marine conditions beginning Tuesday night and persisting through the end of the work-week. Gale conditions are now expected from Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

2) Elevated fire weather conditions possible today and Wednesday.

3) Hazardous surf conditions expected across the local beaches from mid week into Sat. This will produce elevated rips, moderate to strong longshore currents and surf that may breach high surf advisory thresholds.

4) Below normal temperatures through late week. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An extended period of hazardous marine conditions beginning Tuesday night and persisting through the end of the work-week. Gale conditions are now expected from Tuesday night through early Thursday morning.

See Marine Section below.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Elevated fire weather conditions possible today and Wednesday.

Following collaboration with state forestry officials and neighboring weather forecast offices, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued from 11 AM EDT to 7 PM EDT today for most of northeast South Carolina. Minimum RH will drop into the upper 20%s to around 30% this afternoon. Coastal areas will benefit from an onshore component to the wind, maintaining RH in the upper 30%s and 40%s. Northeast winds will be increasing, but likely just below criteria through the mid afternoon. However, the ongoing drought, increasing winds late this afternoon, low rain chances through the upcoming week, and a prolonged period of dry and breezy conditions later this week led to the decision to issue the FDS. Any active fire suppression activities will be extremely difficult today and over the next several days.

Minimum RH values near 30% on Wednesday afternoon combined with gusty northeast winds around 25 mph, potentially 30 mph, will lead to elevated fire weather conditions for both northeast SC and southeast NC on Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous surf conditions expected across the local beaches from mid week into Sat. This will produce elevated rips, moderate to strong longshore currents and surf that may breach high surf advisory thresholds.

Persistent and prolonged NE fetch expected to affect the Carolina Coasts with elevated surf conditions later tonight into Sat. The peak of this hier surf will occur from Wed morning thru Thu morning and could breach High Surf Advisory thresholds of 6 ft or greater. The next full update will determine where/when to place the HSA. Overall, between 8 and 11 second period NE to E waves/swell will dominate the seas spectrum this period. Remember though, seas will peak in a range from 6 to 10 ft so in essence this is a short period large wave. Given the wave directions, NE-E, the beaches of Brunswick County will observe the least of the worse marine/beach conditions during this period. Those E-SE facing beaches will observe the worst rips, the stronger longshore and larger surf during the Tue thru Sat period.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Below normal temperatures through late week. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

Cool airmass in place with low level north-northeast flow over the next few days will keep temperatures below normal through late week. High temps around 65-70F each afternoon through Thursday. The lowest temperatures will be Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Low temperatures should safely hold in the mid and lower 40s for most of the area due to a persistent northeasterly wind and mixed boundary layer. This will prevent frost/freeze concerns.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR. Northeasterly winds could turn slightly eastward this afternoon at coastal terminals due to the marine influence. Winds increase tonight as a wedge of high pressure builds into the Carolinas, coastal areas could gust up to 25 knots prior to daybreak Wednesday.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR conditions expected through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Northeast flow will be increasing throughout the day today. Gusts in excess of 25 knots and seas in excess of 6 feet could develop as early as 00Z this evening. Opted not to issue a SCA prior to Gale conditions developing due to the relatively short time frame. Regardless of when SCA conditions develop, conditions should continue to rapidly deteriorate. Gale conditions will continue overnight, peaking around sunrise Wednesday with gusts up to 40 knots and seas 7-10 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday Night... Strong wedge of high pressure to extend across the Carolinas from the NE States late tonight thru Thu. At the same time, baroclinic zone well East thru South of the area waters early in this period, will meander back toward the Carolina Coasts late Wed night thru Thu. This aided by a series of sfc lows move NE along it while the ridging/wedging weakens across the Carolinas as a result of the NE States center of high pressure moving off the coast and offshore. The tightened sfc pg and weak impulses moving NE within the baroclinic zone will produce Gale Conditions from predawn Wed thru early Thu. Model guidance wants to hint at 1 consolidated low Thu into Fri that could result in an extended period of Gales or strong SCA going into Fri. There-after, models progress wx features well off the Carolina coasts fri into Sat as a ridging in the mid-levels from the NE Gulf becomes dominant Fri night thru Sat night. This will result with improving conditions as broad sfc high pressure overlays the area waters.

The prolonged NE fetch will result in seas building to 6 to 10 ft by Wednesday morning and should persist into Thu before finally observing a slow subsiding trend late Thu night thru Sat. Again, this will be a slow subsiding trend due to the expansiveness of the elevated seas from the extensive NE fetch across the Western Atlantic. Although winds may drop below SCA thresholds later Fri thru Sat night, seas on the other hand will be slower to decay and may remain AOA SCA thresholds going into the upcoming weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.