textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

Warming will take place as high pressure establishes itself offshore with a southerly return flow setting up. Wednesday will be the warmest with temps well into the 80s away from the beaches. Moisture will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday with persistent and deeper S/SW flow. Dewpoint temps will be back up in the 60s on Wednesday with precipitable water values reaching around one and a half inches. Guidance continues to favor dry weather for Wednesday...can't rule out any very isolated showers with the sea breeze but for now went with broad-scale sub-20% PoPs. High rain chances (likely- categorical) return Thursday as a deepening mid- to upper-level trough pushes a cold front closer. By the aftn, there will be better upper-level support to produce heavier showers and some thunderstorms, however the severe potential is not particularly high due to cloud cover and deep-layer flow being parallel to the front. Cooler and drier air will follow behind the front for Friday with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through today and tonight given the mostly dry column in place. Will mainly see some cirrus from convection that is far upstream, and may see a FEW-SCT diurnal cumulus this afternoon. Winds will gust to around 20 kts at times especially at the coastal terminals this afternoon as a result of the seabreeze.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An approaching cold front during Thursday may produce early morning stratus along with some relatively brief restrictions within showers or thunderstorms during the day. Mostly VFR conditions are expected Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Through tonight... A surface ridge axis will linger across the adjacent waters through today and tonight. A Sly pressure gradient will prevail as a result with speeds around 10 kts today across the coastal waters and 10-15 kts for the offshore waters. The seabreeze will increase speeds a notch across the coastal waters this afternoon/evening. Speeds will increase a little more overnight as the pressure gradient begins to tighten further. Seas today will be around 2 ft for the coastal waters and 3 ft for the offshore waters, increase by a foot tonight. While not widespread, isolated to widely scattered showers are possible tonight, mainly across the offshore waters.

Wednesday through Saturday... Sub-SCA conditions continue Wednesday into Wednesday night with SSW flow on the west side of offshore sfc high pressure in the 10-20 kt range. Winds and seas then ramp up through the day Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Confidence is moderate for gusts to 25 kt and/or seas up to 6 ft late Thursday over the 0-20 NM coastal waters. As usual conditions will be slightly worse over the 20-60 NM waters, but confidence is low that a Gale Warning will be needed, as the NW flow behind the front doesn't look to be higher in magnitude than the pre-frontal winds. Marine conditions improve for Friday and Saturday as sfc high pressure builds over the waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.