textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. In addition, raised a Small Craft Advisory for the NC coastal waters. Subsequent shifts can include the remaining SC coastal waters as needed, especially since Small Craft conditions will take a little longer to develop there.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of fog possible tonight into Sunday morning, potentially dense in some inland locations

2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for local coastal waters.

3) Cold air damming wedge will lead to a cool start to the work week.

4) Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, late week.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, late week.

WAA around Bermuda high pressure will lead to well above normal temperatures Wednesday into next weekend, with highs around 80F in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Combined with dewpoints in the low 60s, will see adequate surface based instability each afternoon starting Thursday. While mid level subsidence will limit convective potential Thursday, the inversion weakens Friday and Saturday and scattered afternoon thunderstorms may be possible with weak wind profiles present. Sea breeze will certainly be present with the expected high temps, which will aid in precipitations chances during the day.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The pesky area of strato-cu will continue to affect KFLO initially, but the area of low clouds will push away toward the southeast. Confidence is high for IFR VSBYs/CIGs late tonight into early Sunday morning, especially for KFLO. Potential exists at KLBT too, and to a lesser extend at KILM. KCRE/KMYR will likely see MVFR conditions develop overnight with some chance for IFR, especially at KMYR. Any fog should begin to dissipate between 13 to 15z Sunday, with VFR conditions on tap through the remainder of the afternoon and evening.

Extended Forecast...A back-door cold front will move through the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. A wedge of cool high pressure combined with weak overrunning lift will bring a chance of some spotty light rain and sub-VFR restrictions, mainly in the form of ceilings, Sunday night through Tuesday. Aviation conditions should gradually improve by Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...An offshore cold front will continue to drift eastward and farther out to sea, allowing weak high pressure to settle over the waters. Northerly winds of 5-15 kts will diminish this evening, becoming light at 5-10kts tonight. Winds will remain light Sunday, veering to southerly ahead of an approaching back-door cold front.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Northeasterly winds and seas will be increasing throughout Sunday night, with SCA conditions expected by very early Monday for the NC waters with winds 20-25 kts, gusts near 30 kts, and seas 5-7 ft during the day. Conditions begin to improve late Monday, and while winds turn onshore and lower to around 10 kts during the day Tuesday, 6 foot seas linger into Tuesday, especially for the southeast NC coastal waters. Benign marine conditions expected mid to late week, with south- southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252.