textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the next 7 days.

2) The threat for minor coastal flooding will increase later this week along with hazardous marine/surf conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the next 7 days.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather for the next week leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast, especially around Cape Fear, starting this weekend.

Northeasterly winds will also pick up again late week, especially near the coast, as low pressure develops near The Bahamas leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient between it and the high building down the east coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat for minor coastal flooding will increase later this week along with hazardous marine/surf conditions.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas should once again lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions later this week. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding, starting initially along the lower Cape Fear River and then spreading along the NE SC and SE NC coasts later this week.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding is also likely beginning along the SE NC and NE SC coasts during the late Friday or early Saturday high tide cycle and then continuing at least during the morning high tide cycles thereafter.

High Surf: Elevated seas reaching up toward 10 ft within 20 nm of shore could lead to 6+ ft breaking waves on the beaches along with some beach erosion, especially the E-facing beaches in New Hanover/Georgetown Counties.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding potential marine hazards.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

12Z Thu thru 06Z Fri: High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails.

06Z Fri thru Mon: VFR with NE winds gusting to 25 knots at times this weekend.

MARINE

Through Monday...Deep low pressure centered well east of the Mid- Atlantic coast and south of the New England coast, currently classified as Subtropical Storm Josephine, will continue to move northeast away from the U.S. through late week. This will allow high pressure to build more into the area from the northwest/north through the rest of the period. Low pressure is likely to develop near The Bahamas starting this weekend leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing northeast winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisory conditions should develop across the coastal waters late Friday or Friday night, with gales possible as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.