textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Chance of rain on Thursday is dropping to near zero. Potential is increasing for widespread freeze away from the coast on Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday.

2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures will continue with very minimal rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday.

Warm temps will continue in southwest to west flow ahead of next system through Thurs. A digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some mainly passing mid to high clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a very minimal chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through. Looks like the only chance of pcp on Thurs will be closer to daybreak or early morning. By noon, much drier air will be moving in from west to east across the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows beginning Fri night and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing for Saturday night. This will also include several days of below normal temps near 60 or below.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the period. Light SSW winds this afternoon will drop off this evening but will pick up out of the SW to 5 to 10 kts on Wed after 15Z. Some cirrus will stream across the area from a system moving across the Gulf coast states.

Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend.

MARINE

Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. SW to W winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front starting late Thursday. Best chc of minimal and brief Small Craft Advisory conditions would be Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Winds will remain mainly 10 to 20 kts Fri through Sat night as they veer slowly from NW to N.

Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night into the weekend. Seas will drop as winds diminish Saturday through Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.