textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated. Heat Advisory raised Tuesday for all but northernmost counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

2) Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory likely for part of the area Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... 20+ degree 850mb temperatures return tomorrow ahead of a cold front. This will allow afternoon temperatures to warm into the 90s while dewpoints are progged to get into the mid/upper 70s. Concerned with NW flow and the steep LL hydrolapse rates that some lower dewpoints could mix down but after collab with CHS and CAE have gone ahead and raised a Heat Advisory for all but northern row of counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Strong storms possible Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... After a moistly rain-free Tuesday a cold front and mid level trough will impinge upon the area from the NNW. Models are bullish on both POPS and QPF as this occurs, and the available moisture concerns expressed above could very well mean that both are running too high. Assuming that some surface dewpoint recovery is possible around sunset have not deviated from blended POPs/QPF with this package. Rainfall totals thus expected to have a N-S gradient with the Cape Fear Region nabbing 1-1.25".

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

This afternoon's convection will remain quite randomly spaced and only lead to minimal, short-lived restrictions. Fog tonight is slated to remain no worse than MVFR and should favor inland terminals unless more rainfall develops along the coast today. VFR for Tuesday with numerous showers and storms holding off until after the TAF cycle.

Extended Forecast... VFR should dominate thereafter through Friday.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday... After tonight's uncharacteristically quiet set of conditions winds and seas will ramp up considerably as Tuesday progresses. SCA conditions will likely develop over part of the area. Given the uncertainty and that we're talking most Tuesday night have held off on raising headlines at this time. Conditions will start to improve Wednesday even if only slowly but from WEdnesday night onward the gradient grows very weak as there is no push of high pressure following FROPA.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099-107>110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.