textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances slowly on the rise as an old frontal boundary will begin to push inland. Latter half of the week will be a wet one.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Rain chances slowly on the rise as an old frontal boundary will begin to push inland. Latter half of the week will be a wet one.

Latest surface analysis shows an old frontal boundary offshore of the Carolinas. Showers and storms have steadily increased offshore of Lowcountry throughout the night, and are slowly creeping northward towards the Grand Strand region. May have some opportunity for some of this activity to scrape the coastal areas of Georgetown and Horry Counties by daybreak this morning. By midday, the same may occur around the Wilmington area. Meanwhile, the seabreeze will try to bring about some isolated convection just inland of the coast this afternoon, but may struggle with some slightly drier air in place. Grand Strand region might have some of the better chances here, being closer to the frontal boundary.

The front starts to make an earnest movement towards the mainland late tonight, where shower and storm chances will increase along the coast. Thursday through Saturday, a trough will dig into the Southeast, allowing for deep SW flow to bring in rich Gulf moisture, along with increased forcing. Guidance continues to show a rainy period within this window. Trough gets pushed offshore by Sunday, thanks to a ridge from the west. This decreases the rain chances going into early next week, but typical seabreeze convection remains.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Any fog forming inland should be cleared up around the start of the period, so don't have it in TAFs. Some isolated showers are popping up near the Myrtles but predictability for restrictions should these move onshore is low and hasn't been put in the TAFs. PROB30s are in for the afternoon time period with the sea breeze driving storms into the evening. Coastal terminals look to have low chances of showers/storms impacting them onwards from 00Z as a warm front approaches, but have only put PROB30s in for later overnight as rain chances increase further. Expect timing for this to change. Confidence on any fog inland is low.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the area as well in a warm and humid airmass. The next cold front should move into the area Friday night or Saturday. Rain chances may come down a bit by Sunday, but confidence is shaky.

MARINE

Through Sunday...ESE winds veer to the SSW to SW by tonight, and stay there through Saturday morning. Gradient winds increase a bit Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, but never get above a moderate breeze. 1-2 ft seas increase to 2-4 ft with the gradient wind increase, but improve to 1-3 ft by Saturday. Winds a bit more variable Saturday night through Sunday, but stick to a light to gentle breeze. Seas continue to improve to 1-2 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.