textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lack of wind tonight will keep apparent temperatures above Cold Weather Advisory criteria, though low temperatures will still fall to around 20F (colder in traditional cold spots).

Low confidence remains regarding how much, if any, light snow accumulations we may see on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Fire Danger Statement in effect through 7 PM EST this evening.

2) Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight through early Thursday night due to gusty winds and elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

3) Arctic air will bring very cold trumpeters tonight but the wind will be abating. A Cold Weather Advisory (for apparent temperatures of 6-15 degrees) is no longer anticipated.

4) Wintry mix is likely on Sunday, with potential for light snow accumulations. Rapidly dropping temperatures Sunday night will create black ice concerns.

5) Potential for dangerous cold Monday and Tuesday nights, with coldest wind chills forecasted for Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Fire Danger Statement in effect through 7PM EST this evening.

Fire Danger Statement in effect. The Arctic air pouring into the region is bringing plummeting dewpoints and gusty NW winds. A Fire Danger Statement is now out through 7 PM for all zones. Thereafter wind gusts will have fallen below thresholds.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight through early Thursday night due to gusty winds and elevated seas. Small Craft Advisory is in effect.

Small Craft Advisory in effect. See Marine section below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic air will bring very cold trumpeters tonight but the wind will be abating. A Cold Weather Advisory (for apparent temperatures of 6-15 degrees) is no longer anticipated.

Wind chills in the teens tonight. Similar to the Fire Weather concerns, the Arctic blast will cause temperatures to plummet tonight with most locales away from the ocean close to 20. Beaches will be a tad warmer and our chilly spots with the pocosin soils getting into the upper teens. However the wind will abate all night lowering the spread between actual and apparent temperatures. Now the only spots that may see Cold Weather Advisory criteria will be over a small part of Pender County. Since areal coverage dictates the need for most headlines we have not issued one at this time as the area in question will be far less than half of the county.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Wintry mix is likely on Sunday, with potential for light snow accumulations. Rapidly dropping temperatures Sunday night will create black ice concerns.

After a warm Saturday, above freezing temperatures are forecasted to be in place Saturday night as moisture advection from the southwest begins. A cold front will move across the area Saturday night through Sunday morning, with CAA behind the front leading to decreasing temperatures starting midday Sunday. Soundings start off warm, and precipitation is expected to begin as rain early Sunday. How fast temperatures fall while we still have moisture, as well as lift from incoming upper trough Sunday afternoon and low pressure developing along offshore front, will determine how much snow we see on Sunday. GFS has colder air moving in quicker and therefore has a few hours of decent snow, particularly inland, while NAM is warmer and keeps precipitation as rain for longer before brief rain/snow mix. Global ensemble guidance continues to show a 20-30% chance of 1" snow falling for majority of the CWA Sunday before we dry out quickly Sunday evening. QPF for the event is around 0.25'0.5". Regardless of whether the snow sticks or not, temperatures fall quickly Sunday night into the low to mid 20s and black ice will be a concern Sunday evening into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 5...Potential for dangerous cold Monday and Tuesday nights, with coldest wind chills forecasted for Monday night.

Cold air will be in place for the start of next week, with below normal temperatures through midweek. Forecasted high temps Tuesday are only a few degrees warmer than typical low temps for this time of year. Potentially dangerous cold air makes a return for the overnight lows at the start of next week, with lows in the upper teens to low 20s each morning. Winds Monday night, as high pressure starts to build in from the west, could produce wind chills in the low to mid teens.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the entire period. High pressure brings gusty NW winds til a few hours after sunset at which time they will grow much lighter. Skies remain clear with very dry air in place behind today's Arctic cold front.

Extended Forecast...VFR Friday through Saturday. Flight restrictions likely Sunday, along with possible frozen precipitation. Back to VFR Sunday night through Monday.

MARINE

Through Friday...A strong gradient has set up across the waters between low pressure in the Northeast with a trailing Arctic front, and the 1020mb high building in from the west behind the boundary. The offshore flow direction from the NW will keep advisory-worthy 6 ft seas just outside of the 20 nm forecast zones but wind gusts will handily require headlines until around midnight as the gradient eases. Swell will be minimal so waves should continue to have a choppy period of 5 seconds or so.

Friday night through Tuesday...Southwest winds 15-20 kts with seas 3- 4 ft will prevail Friday night through early Saturday night. A cold front moves off the coast Saturday night/early Sunday, with a weak low pressure developing along the front later Sunday. Rain will spread over the waters Sunday, with no threat of thunder. Wind turn offshore on Sunday as cold air moves into the area, with seas decreasing slightly as NW wind chop replaces SW wave component. Winds remain breezy out of the west or northwest, with seas 2-3 ft, through Tuesday with speeds below advisory criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.