textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAF cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot with largely rain-free conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot with largely rain-free conditions.

Ridging will build just north of the area with a return to above normal temperatures through the end of the work week. Smoke from wildfires in Canada had a large impact on high temps to our north but model resolutions for today keep smoke north of the area. Regardless, guidance was too warm yesterday so temperatures have been lowered slightly. Dewpoints have also been lowered to combat the NBM's high bias and account for afternoon mixing. The combination of these changes have lead to heat indices below for the majority of the area and the majority of the day, so Heat Advisories have not been issue. A Heat Advisory appears more likely for Friday as humidity starts to recover with S/SW winds. By the weekend moisture should have recovered enough to support typical afternoon showers/storms with isolated to scattered coverage, but these aren't anticipated to help to abate the heat threat into next week. There are signals that low pressure could form somewhere in the SE U.S. which could impact the rainfall forecast headed into next week but uncertainty is high at this time.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR. The afternoon sea breeze should move through coastal terminals ~16-17Z and inland terminals ~21-23Z with a turn from W winds to more SSW.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the upcoming weekend with predominantly VFR conditions through the period. Brief restrictions from afternoon showers/storms may return by early next week.

MARINE

Thursday through Monday... W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory gusts may be possible for the weekend as the PG increases, and the wind wave will become more dominant. Seas largely 2-3 ft increasing to 4-5 ft this weekend. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 AM EDT early this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.