textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. Heat related headlines have ended. Surf hazards

KEY MESSAGES

1)Hot weather continues through Wednesday.

2) Late Wednesday through Friday may offer the area's best rain chances in quite some time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather continues through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Despite the lack of mid level ridging being present like during our hot July start there is simply nothing to scour out the very warm boundary layer temperatures. Temperatures will remain near 20C at 850mb and the steep lapse rates that have been developing beneath this layer mid 90s should be easily attainable tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoon. Increased convective cloud cover will make an area-wide Heat Advisory not a certainty though, but at least part of the area will see heat headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late Wednesday through Friday may offer the area's best rain chances in quite some time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will drop into the area late Wednesday accompanied by mid level height falls and in the presence of PW values as high as 2.4". This should allow for fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rain and downbursts possible. SPC has us in a fairly rare Day4 Outlook whilst WPC has the area highlighted for SLGT/Level 2 outta 5 for Excessive rainfall in addition to a forecast of a couple inches of drought- relieving QPF. With the front stalling just offshore in the late portions of the forecast cycle there is uncertainty regarding whether or not a temporary day of drying occurs. This may be slated for Friday before the next disturbance rotates around the eastern U.S. trough and another wave forms on the boundary leading to another round of rainfall next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low confidence in any MVFR/IFR this evening and overnight with VFR likely to dominate. Storms have thus far struggled to move in from the northwest. Ridging aloft has maintained an environment unfavorable for storm development and much of the high resolution guidance is showing storms staying north of ILM/LBT. Not expecting much in the way of fog or stratus development given somewhat drier air in the boundary layer. The best low level moisture is pooled north and east of the local area and suspect this is where stratus is more likely to develop. Boundary layer winds tonight will keep any fog that happens to develop patchy and transient.

Anticipate ridging aloft and westerly flow will continue to be a significant limiting factor for storm development Mon. Best chances will be FLO/LBT in the afternoon and evening. Breezy southwest winds will continue with gusts in excess of 20 kt possible in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Low potential for MVFR/IFR from storms Monday night and Tuesday, mainly due to limited storm coverage. Storm coverage will gradually increase from the middle to end of the week, increasing potential for MVFR/IFR, although confidence in timing and locations is low.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday... The gradient remains pinched between high pressure offshore and the Piedmont Trough. The gradient will ease only slightly tonight from south to north and the current advisory headlines have not been changed. It's worth noting that the ease in gradient and that conditions will be close to but just shy of advisory thresholds with respect to wind whereas the largely coast- parallel flow will keep the larger seas outside of 20nm as they continue to run in the shorter end of the period spectrum (little to no swell energy). The next front drops down late Wednesday and winds pick up back into SCA realm, perhaps more solidly.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254- 256.