textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington, for this afternoon's high tide. No significant forecast changes with the latest update. Beach Hazard Statement issued for strong longshore current at east- facing beaches today. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Building high pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

High pressure will build across the area today following an early morning cold front. Temperatures will drop to near-normal through early next week. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast this afternoon. Dry weather is expected through much of this week with high pressure in place.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low.

Precipitable water is expected to increase late this week as an upper low approaches the southeastern US. Southerly return flow could support an increase in rain chances. Forecast spread in regards to both upper level heights and precipitable water remains high in an amplifying pattern.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR with scattered to broken high clouds. Northeast winds through the TAF period, with gusts of 15-20kt through sunset.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week.

MARINE

Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 256.