textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for 12Z TAFs. Special Weather Statement for patchy dense fog impacting coastal areas has been allowed to expire based on observations.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near-record to record high temps are forecast for Friday.

2) Very low risk for severe storms Sat, mainly early to mid afternoon.

3) Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly near record lows Mon night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-record to record high temps are forecast for Friday.

Increased WAA ahead of a cold front will lead to warmer conditions than yesterday, with areas inland nearing 80 and the beaches nearing 70. This will threaten record highs for KLBT with a possible tie at KFLO, with all records in the climate section below. There is some uncertainty due to the cloud cover and afternoon showers, but we'll get pretty close regardless inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Very low risk for severe storms Sat, mainly early to mid afternoon.

There is a very low risk for a few severe storms on Saturday, especially during the early to mid afternoon across eastern SC as the area briefly gets into a weak warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail but an isolated tornado can't completely be ruled out given the placement of the warm front across the area. Otherwise, the storm system will bring some much-needed rainfall with generally about 0.5- 0.75" but locally higher amounts over 1" are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly near record lows Mon night.

A much colder air mass will build in behind a departing storm system early next week bringing well below normal temps. Highs Mon/Tue will generally be near 50 with lows generally around 30. Could even be near record lows at Florence/N. Myrtle Beach Mon night (see Climate section below for details). Wind chills should be well down into the 20s each night, especially Sun/Mon nights. Wind chills into the upper teens are even possible but the chance for reaching 15 degrees or colder (i.e., Cold Weather Advisory criteria) is very low.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Current thoughts for daytime sea fog is that KCRE could be impacted, but low confidence as fog may stick to the Cape Fear area not moving inland much. Otherwise, SW winds will gust 25-30 kts today ahead of a front. Scattered showers will move through in the afternoon with VSBYs and CIGs possibly dipping to MVFR in showers. Brief clearing is possible ~00Z before the front looks to retreat back to the north with rain chances increasing again late tonight and towards the end of the period.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely through the weekend due to a stalled front and passing low pressure. CIGs and VSBYs will be diminished with the threat of fog and light to moderate rainfall. VFR should return early next week.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Increasing SW winds and seas ahead of a frontal system will lead to SCA conditions through the day Friday before the front dips south, stalling there. Speeds will drop to near 10 kts tonight with seas near 3 ft.

Saturday through Tuesday... A cold front stalled in the area Sat will lead to a period of variable winds with speeds 10 kt or less. However, the front is pulled aways from the coast by low pressure moving offshore Sun morning. This will set up a 24 to 36 hour period of strong north to northwest flow. Speeds will likely require a small craft advisory beginning later Sun and lasting through much of Mon and possibly into Mon night. Gradient starts to relax late Mon night as the deepening low moves northeast and the center of the high building in from the west-northwest moves closer. Offshore flow on Tue will be under 10 kt. Seas will be 2-4 ft outside of a 24 hour window starting late Sun where strong offshore flow will result in seas under 2 ft near shore and over 6 ft closer to 20 nm.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

Record lows for 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (18 last set in 1901) Lumberton NC - KLBT (18 last set in 1978) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (26 last set in 2009) Florence SC - KFLO (24 last set in 1968)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.