textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There have been no significant changes to forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Hot weather continues through Wednesday.

2) Late Wednesday through Friday may offer the area's best rain chances in quite some time.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot weather continues through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Despite the lack of mid level ridging being present like during our hot July start there is simply nothing to scour out the very warm boundary layer temperatures. Temperatures will remain near 20C at 850mb and the steep lapse rates that have been developing beneath this layer mid 90s should be easily attainable tomorrow, Tuesday, and Wednesday afternoon. Increased convective cloud cover will make an area-wide Heat Advisory not a certainty though, but at least part of the area will see heat headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Late Wednesday through Friday may offer the area's best rain chances in quite some time.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will drop into the area late Wednesday accompanied by mid level height falls and in the presence of PW values as high as 2.4". This should allow for fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity with heavy rain and downbursts possible. SPC has us in a fairly rare Day4 Outlook whilst WPC has the area highlighted for SLGT/Level 2 outta 5 for Excessive rainfall in addition to a forecast of a couple inches of drought- relieving QPF. With the front stalling just offshore in the late portions of the forecast cycle there is uncertainty regarding whether or not a temporary day of drying occurs. This may be slated for Friday before the next disturbance rotates around the eastern U.S. trough and another wave forms on the boundary leading to another round of rainfall next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

An agitated cumulus field across southeastern NC and extending into northeastern SC will provide the initial focus for showers and storms through ~22z. The greatest potential for brief sub-VFR restrictions will be at KLBT, KILM and possibly KFLO. Southwest winds inland will increase this afternoon, enhanced by the seabreeze with sustained winds increasing to 15-20 kt along the coast with gusts to 25 kt expected.

Additional showers and storms may re-develop this evening and persist into portions of the overnight hours, primarily across southeastern North Carolina with sub-VFR impacts possible at KLBT and KILM.

Extended Forecast... With a front stalled north of the area, scattered showers and storms are anticipated Monday afternoon into the night with brief periods of MVFR or IFR restrictions possible. As on Sunday, the highest convective coverage is expected across northern-NC TAF sites (KLBT, KILM). Storm chances decrease on Tuesday, leaving a low risk for transient MVFR or IFR restrictions in convection. Thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase Wednesday into Thursday as a stronger cold front approaches, bringing a greater potential for widespread storms and associated restrictions Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday... The gradient remains pinched between high pressure offshore and the Piedmont Trough. The gradient will ease only slightly tonight from south to north and the current advisory headlines have not been changed. It's worth noting that the ease in gradient and that conditions will be close to but just shy of advisory thresholds with respect to wind whereas the largely coast- parallel flow will keep the larger seas outside of 20nm as they continue to run in the shorter end of the period spectrum (little to no swell energy). The next front drops down late Wednesday and winds pick up back into SCA realm, perhaps more solidly.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 033-054-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254- 256.