textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Another Heat Advisory has been issued for Sunday over most of the area. Otherwise, no significant forecast changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The heat and humidity continues into next week.

DISCUSSION

1) The heat and humidity continues into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Broad upr-level ridge remains in place over the eastern CONUS into Sunday. A favorable position for high heat and humidity locally being on the east side of the ridge, although with a higher likelihood of more cloud cover than today, heat indices should be a bit lower, but enough to warrant another Heat Advisory over most of the area. Kept Pender and New Hanover out of the advisory where head indices are expected to peak more in the 100-104 degree range, and will re-evaluate in the next forecast update. Extreme Heat Watches/Warnings may be necessary for Monday with lower rain chances and less cloud cover allowing for high temps also in the 95-100 degree range. More marginal for Tuesday with higher rain chances (chance PoPs) compared to Monday as better shortwave energy aloft traverses the area. Heat products are less likely for the second half of next week as an upr-level trough drops into the area with rain chances in the chance to likely range each day.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR is expected to continue at least for the next several hours before potential fog or low stratus develops later in the night, which carries moderate to high confidence. With most of the area having seen rainfall or rain-cooled air from today's storms and the expectation for calm winds most of the night, have opted to be more aggressive on fog/low stratus potential than guidance suggests. However, one limiting factor will be the thickness and longevity of high cirrus from storms north of the area streaming in. Expect VFR to return by mid-morning with another round of isolated to scattered showers and storms expected mainly in the afternoon, initially focused on the sea breeze before spreading inland. Brief IFR to LIFR vis restrictions will be possible in heavy rain.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of next week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief vis restrictions at times.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions expected next week with no strong fropas anticipated. Winds average 10-15 kt outside of any convection, with seas steady at 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-099- 109-110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.