textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire weather in place for most of the upcoming week due to very dry conditions and ongoing drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire weather in place for most of the upcoming week due to very dry conditions and ongoing drought.

Dry fuels due to ongoing severe drought along with a dry air mass in place for the upcoming week will contribute to a prolonged period of elevated fire weather conditions. Afternoon minimum RH values are forecasted below 30%, away from the immediate coast, each day this week. Wind speeds will vary throughout the week. Today and Wednesday are forecasted to be the windiest days, with gusts around 15-20 mph this afternoon and potentially 20-25 mph gusts during the day Wednesday. Fire Danger Statement is in effect for virtually all of North Carolina today, and burn bans remain in effect for both North and South Carolina until further notice.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Prevailing VFR, with the exception of patchy fog for parts of Bladen and northern Pender counties through daybreak. Light winds through morning will turn northwesterly during the day around 5-10 kts as a dry cold front moves through the area. Winds become light northeasterlies tonight as a second high pressure ridges down from the north.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Friday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Weakening northeast winds this morning will briefly turn southwesterly later today before a dry cold front moves offshore. Winds veer to north-northeasterly tonight behind the front, slowly increasing to 15 kts with gusts to 20 kts by dawn Tuesday. Seas will be improving throughout the day as the NNE wind wave weakens. In the coastal waters (out to 20nm) seas linger around 2-3 ft today into tonight. For the waters from 20nm to 60nm, seas 4- 6 ft this morning lower to 3-4 ft by this evening, primarily as a ENE swell.

Tuesday through Friday Night...High pressure will be shifting offshore allowing southerly winds to return Tue night. Should see winds pick up Wed/Wed night due to a tightening pressure gradient from an approaching cold front but should mainly stay below 25 kt, especially given the cooler water. With significant waves staying about 4 ft or less as well we don't anticipate any appreciable threat for wind/sea headlines even in the offshore 20-60 NM zones. After winds subside a bit Thu into early Fri they should pick back up later Fri/Fri night as another cold front begins to approach but once again stay below SCA criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.