textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon on Saturday.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exist for minor coastal flooding during evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon on Saturday.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown Wilmington and at the beaches should reach just above minor coastal flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of the time of the evening high tides over the next few days. At the beaches, high tide occurs around 7 pm this evening and 8 pm Saturday evening. Along the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide takes place around 9 pm this evening and 10 pm Saturday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through mid next week which isn't good news as far as the drought is concerned. Following the dry W/NW flow in place Friday with temps slightly below normal, warmer temps are expected thereafter with highs in the 80s to even low 90s at times inland. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support heat indices much higher than air temps so no concern for reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees). More troughing/moisture on Thu and Fri will bring by far the best rain chances of the period.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through the period as dry air and subsidence remain firmly in place. As high pressure moves offshore, expect winds to swing around to southerly this afternoon and a weak sea breeze to shift inland. After sunrise on Saturday, expect winds at coastal terminals to start southerly then tend towards southeasterly in light of a stronger sea breeze while inland terminals favor southerly to southwesterly. Fog chances are very low tonight even with light winds and clear skies due to lingering dry air and subsidence aloft.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Tuesday. Early- morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low- level moisture increases.

MARINE

Through Saturday... High pressure will shift offshore this afternoon, causing winds to swing around to between south and southeasterly by sunset with speeds mainly between 5-10 kts. Expect similar winds through Saturday, with some nearshore enhancement to southeasterly wind speeds due to the sea breeze. Southeasterly 7-8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat through Saturday to 2-3 ft while mainly 1 ft wind waves develop out of the south to southeast.

Saturday night through Wednesday... High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay only 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.