textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated, but no significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal this week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures a few degrees above normal this week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

Broad ridging aloft south of the area starts to expand north today, peaking in strength Mon. Subsidence on the northern side of the ridge will lead to temperatures near to slightly above normal both days. The subsidence, leading to mid-level dry air and stability, will keep rain chances very low today. Rain chances increase slightly Mon, but the environment remains unfavorable for more than a few afternoon or evening storms.

Weak shortwave early Tue dents the ridge, but enhanced subsidence in the wake of the shortwave and resulting westerly flow will result in temps as warm if not warmer than Mon. Warmth will also extend to the coast with the sea breeze pinned by westerly low level flow. Similar to Mon the environment is not one conducive to the development of widespread storms and while some isolated to scattered convection is likely due to the heat, do not anticipate a lot of coverage. Cloud cover and storm coverage starts to increase for the second half of the week, leading to slightly cooler afternoon highs as well.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR and dry through the 06Z TAF period. Very low probability for low stratus or fog over portions of SC this morning; not nearly confident enough to include in the TAFs. Weak sfc high pressure remains over the area today. Winds up to ~10 kt during the day, highest with the sea breeze.

Extended Forecast...VFR through tonight. MVFR/IFR possible with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms each day this week starting Monday.

MARINE

No marine headlines necessary with this forecast package. Weak sfc high pressure remains over the waters today allowing for benign marine conditions. The pressure gradient will start to tighten up on Monday ahead of the next front, with SSW gusts up to 20-23 kt Monday aftn. The front drops in late Tuesday or early Wednesday allowing for speeds to decrease a bit, and with a lack of CAA behind the front not anticipating SCA conditions mid week. A southerly wind wave remains dominant through the forecast, with the period gradually decreasing through Monday before starting to increase as the wind wave starts to transition to a swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.