textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

After a lull in the activity tonight, rain chances increase Monday with the next weather system. Colder and drier weather briefly arrives Tuesday, with temperatures rebounding towards normal for the second half of the week. Bitterly cold weather returns by next weekend.

UPDATE

No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Moisture/precip streaming out of the northern Gulf this afternoon across the SE US will continue through tonight. Although this will largely stay south of the forecast area, 20-30% PoPs across our southern and eastern zones will be warranted to account for the potential for few hundredths of QPF on the fringes of this activity. A shortwave will cross the MS River Valley late tonight and shunt this moisture mostly off the SE coast before 12Z, but will also spread additional moisture and lift into the area during the day Monday. Also Monday, surface high pressure will build across the NE US and extend southward into the Carolinas. This cool wedge, combined with clouds and precip will keep Monday high temps 15 degrees below normal, and therefore we have undercut NBM guidance by a few degrees as a result.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Base of the shortwave trough is basically right over the area Monday evening, pushing offshore by early Tuesday morning. This takes the last of the moisture, with chilly high pressure settling in from the north. Dry and cold this forecast period. Lows in the mid-to-upper 20s Monday night. Highs only reach the mid-to-upper 40s Tuesday, running nearly 15 degrees below normal for early-mid December. Lows bounce back a bit Tuesday night, generally in the lower 30s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Air mass modification kicks in Wednesday, allowing highs to shoot up into the upper 50s to lower 60s, hovering right around or just a degree or two below normal. Thursday looks about the same, if not just a touch warmer, with lows each night around 40. A weak front pushes through the area Wednesday through Thursday, but should only manifest itself in some mid-to-high-level clouds.

Pattern starts to change Thursday night through Friday as a trough digs in and swings through the Southeast, pushing another cold front through the area Friday. While this one looks like a stronger front than the Wednesday/Thursday front, it looks to only produce a slight chance of rain. Clouds and rain block some extra warmth and keep Friday high temperatures in the low-to-mid 50s. Forecast dries out again by next weekend, but bitterly cold temperatures return.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Stagnant pattern continues over the area with light N/NE wind and sfc high pressure centered off to the NE. IFR cigs continue this evening and likely through tomorrow around the FLO area, while elsewhere the current VFR conditions should deteriorate to MVFR/IFR overnight into Monday when light rain chances return as well. There is also low to moderate confidence in LIFR cigs at FLO/LBT Monday.

Extended Outlook...At least MVFR/IFR cigs likely into Monday night, before improving aviation conditions thereafter with dry sfc high pressure over the area midweek.

MARINE

Through Monday...Relatively light NE flow will continue across the waters through tonight. On Monday, surface high building across the NE US and Mid-Atlantic region will extend southward across the interior Carolinas, and the pressure gradient will tighten up between this ridge and a surface trough off the coast. Winds will back to the north Monday and increase to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Seas will build to 6 ft near and north of Frying Pan Shoals by mid- morning Monday, and will also build to 6 ft across the southern waters by late afternoon/early evening. Therefore will be raising a Small Craft Advisory for Monday with the afternoon forecast package, starting at 12Z north of Little River Inlet, and starting at 18Z south of Little River.

Monday Night through Friday...Small Craft Advisory continues until 10 AM EST Tuesday. From there, gradient winds loosen and gradually back towards the west through early Wednesday, with seas coming down to 2-3 ft. Winds continue to back slightly more to the southwest by midday Wednesday, and the gradient tightens again ahead of another frontal system. Another Small Craft Advisory may be needed late Wednesday into early Thursday. After the front moves through, winds veer to the northwest, decreasing to 10-15 kts for a bit and then poking back up to more like 15 kts by Friday. Seas at 2-4 ft Thursday afternoon through Friday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ254-256.