textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated with 12Z Tafs Issuance.

Have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for eastern parts of the area with a Heat Advisory elsewhere.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Extreme heat will be in place for the next few days across the area. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will decrease.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The synoptic pattern shifts slightly today as the mid level low inches across the Tennessee Valley. The response across the eastern Carolinas will be subtle ridging. This will limit convection somewhat and push the axis of activity to the north. Northern zones of our CWA may see some activity later in the day. Its worth noting the new day one outlook from SPC has jogged the marginal risk a bit further north. The aforementioned events allow surface temperatures to increase slightly and with prolific dewpoints heat indices have eclipsed the 110 threshold in many areas mainly east. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for these areas. A what is seemingly daily Heat Advisory has been issued well inland.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions expected thruout the majority of the 24 hr TAF Issuance period. Looking at possible MVFR from convection in the vicinity of the sea breeze and also concentrated across inland Southeast NC. Only used 4 to 6 hr PROB30 groups to indicate the time line of this convection. Overall, does not look as widespread as the past few days given the weak dirty mid-level ridging approaching the region. Winds generally WSW-W 5 to 10 kt thru the day except when the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Looking at SSW-SW winds 10-20 kt at the coastal terminals that should last well after sunset this evening.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sun. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday due to a possible CFP.

MARINE

The Piedmont trough will remain in place through most of the period and be the dominant wind-maker as the Bermuda High is displaced eastward. Winds remain solidly SW save for the seabreeze acceleration. A slight westward jog off the offshore high will increase winds Thursday into Friday and less so Saturday. A brief window of marginal advisory-worthy 6 ft seas cannot be ruled out.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.