textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Another heat advisory has been issued for portions of the area, east of I-95, on Sunday. Aviation discussion updated with 18Z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

Heat and humidity continues on Sunday, but the upper ridge moves eastward and is dampened by a shortwave over the central US. This should translate into a decrease of a couple of degrees in high temperatures on Sunday afternoon. Although temperatures will be a couple of degrees cooler, southerly flow increases as the Bermuda high builds westward. Surface moisture advection forces a proportional increase in dew points during the afternoon. Increased humidity is expected to be more evident at the coast and another heat advisory has been issued for our coastal counties (plus Columbus (NC) and Bladen (NC)) where heat indices just above 105 are expected for the afternoon. The dampened ridge could allow for convection to return to our inland areas. The best chance will be areas west of US-52 in SC. Coverage is expected to be isolated.

A mid level trough passes north of the area early next week which should dent the remnants of the ridge. The flow aloft becomes more zonal, with weak impulses in the westerly flow crossing the area. The weakened ridge would allow for a brief reprieve from the heat and open the door for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially as the trough axis moves through the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The local area remains under the influence of the western periphery of the ridge through next week, holding temperatures above normal and enhanced by weak westerly downslope flow. Afternoon storm chances should return next week, albeit with reduced coverage; development will favor the Piedmont trough with the sea breeze becoming more active around mid-week.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in VFR over the next 24 hours. Shallow ground fog possible again tonight. Any restrictions would be brief.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for afternoon and evening storms returns Monday and continues through Wednesday.

MARINE

Bermuda high will gradually begin to dominate over the next 24 hours. Southwest winds increase on Sunday, up to 15 knots sustained near the coast. A more defined gradient is expected on Monday and Tuesday with winds 15-20 knots and higher gusts. Winds decrease Wednesday with the arrival a weak front. Seas around 2 feet tomorrow will increase early next week in a persistent wind field. Seas peak around 3-4 feet on Tuesday in the extending SW fetch. The gradient weakens slightly on Wednesday, but the prolonged fetch keeps an elevated wind wave.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 4-7...

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ096-099-105- 107-109. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 033-058-059. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Sunday for SCZ054>056-058- 059. MARINE...None.