textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Cold, dry high pressure will linger through Tuesday night before moving offshore ahead of a weak, dry cold front. Although a few cold fronts push offshore through the week, temperatures will remain on the warm side as we do not tap into much colder air until early next week.

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure offshore will push a warm front northward this morning. Aggressive low level warm air advection will follow for much of today. Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than Monday. A shortwave ahead of a surface front to our west will move through southern VA and northern NC later today. This is likely to bring some cloud cover during the late morning and early afternoon, cutting highs a few degrees from their potential. The thickest cloud cover will exist over NC. Generally, expect mid to upper 60s, lower 60s in inland NC with increased cloud cover.

A weak cold front will push overnight, maintaining light boundary layer winds shifting from westerly to northerly after midnight. Cold air advection will be quite weak following the front, so lows should only drop into the mid and upper 40s.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Overall expect quiet and warm weather through midweek. Ridge builds up the Mississippi Valley maintaining H5 heights close to 580 dem. After a warm start Wed morning, temps will reach up near or just above 70 degrees on Wed. Some weak CAA behind a cold front and then clear skies and calmer winds Wed night will produce lows dropping into the 40s overnight Wed. Temps on Thurs will be up around 70 once again. A shortwave will pass to our north on Thurs pushing cold front off the coast by Thus night. May see some gusty SW winds on Thurs aftn. Should see a few clouds over SE NC, but any pcp will remain north. Temps Thurs night will be closer to 50 as we do not tap into any substantially colder air with any of these fronts.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Another system will ride by to the north on Fri with mainly zonal flow aloft. Should see more in the way of clouds on Fri and slightly cooler temps in the 60s most places. The 850 temps fluctuate a bit but overall remain on the warm side through the weekend. Does not look like we will tap into colder air until next Mon. Unseasonably warm temps near or above 70 should continue for highs and well above normal overnight temps in the 50s both Fri night and Sat night. Stronger cold front will come through Sun night with temps dropping back below normal for the beginning of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR mid level clouds will develop in response to a shortwave today, nearing 3k feet AGL later this morning and early this afternoon. Southwesterly winds will gust up to 25 knots this afternoon due to an increasing low level jet ahead of a weak cold front. VFR with clearing skies tonight. The low level jet should remain in place this evening, likely resulting in a period of LLWS. Weak westerly winds this evening will become NW overnight behind the front.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR. Some restrictions possible Friday with increasing clouds along a warm front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Veering winds and warm air advection are expected today as high pressure shifts offshore. Southwesterly flow will increase to around 15 knots this afternoon in a compressed gradient ahead of the cold front. Gusts should remain below SCA thresholds thanks to inefficient mixing over cooler water temperatures. The increased winds will force wind waves to increase to around 3-4 feet during the afternoon.

Wednesday through Saturday... Diminishing offshore flow on Wed will allow seas to drop to less than 3 ft. Winds veering from NW to N on Wed will come around to onshore by Wed night and around to the S on Thur. Winds will continue to veer to the SW becoming a bit gusty Thurs aftn ahead of another front bumping up seas a bit. Winds will then veer around to the W to NW by Thurs night as front moves offshore. Then back around to the N to NE on Fri and continuing to come around to the W to SW by Sat as yet another system moves through. Seas generally remain in the 2 to 4 ft range and we do not tap into colder air until next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.