textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have lowered today's rip current risk to Low for New Hanover and Pender beaches based on morning lifeguard reports and webcams. Moderate risk remains for Brunswick county, and has been extended into northern Horry. For tomorrow, high rip risk forecasted for most of Brunswick county beaches due to 4-5 ft S swell, with a strong south to north longshore current expected at east-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

2) Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

As low pressure and shortwave track up from the Gulf on Thursday, a ridge of high pressure will build up the Southeast coast. This will push H5 heights up close to 590 dam and 850 temps up as high as 20c. The increased SW to W flow will also help to bring increased moisture up from area of low pressure over the Gulf coast. This will all lead to unseasonably hot and humid conditions Thursday with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for a good portion of the area, especially over SE NC east of I-95 and coastal SC. As tropical moisture streams over the area, the clouds may cut into the daytime heating, but guidance has been persistently showing potential for surpassing heat advisory thresholds Thursday aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

Decent shortwave tracking up from the Gulf coast associated with area of low pressure late Thursday into Thursday night and then an approaching cold front could all lead to some severe storms late Thursday through Friday. The main severe threat is damaging winds but tornadoes will also be possible, especially if the area of low pressure (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 1) also moves through the area. However, confidence is low due to uncertainty regarding the strength/track/timing of the possible low pressure system.

AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR/IFR conditions thru generally 16Z, mainly from lowered ceilings within the light patchy/intermittent pcpn. The thunder threat remains too low to mention in the TAFs for the time being. Look for improvements from NW to SE across the terminals late this morning into the afternoon. Pcpn will come to an end by 17Z-ish. With ceilings quickly improving to MVFR then VFR by mid afternoon the latest. Generally will observe cirrus decks tonight. Winds generally WSW 5 to 9 kt within the pcpn. Once skies improve, winds will become SW 10-15 kt g20 kt this aftn into the evening...and will likely stay around 10 kt thru the overnight. This will keep fog development at bay.

Extended Forecast...expect mainly VFR through Thu. An approaching strong cold front along with potential low pressure accompanied with tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night thru early Sat due to more numerous showers/storms. VFR expected later Sat thru Sun.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday...A weak area of low pressure and lingering cold front will lift north and dissipate as Atlantic high pressure becomes dominant. A decent pressure gradient will result in wind gusts near Small Craft Advisory levels at times through tonight. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system Thursday through Friday should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters and potential for gales in the offshore waters, mainly north of Cape Fear. However, confidence remains low as much depends on the strength/timing of possible low pressure.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.