textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Chance for subtropical/tropical cyclone formation off the coast has lowered to near 0%.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

2) Near-zero chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb heights at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before weakening as it then settles over the Carolinas late this week and gradually moves into the Atlantic over the weekend. This will yield well above normal temperatures, especially inland, where they could be near record levels. Given the placement of this upper high and deep- layer flow mainly between north and east until this weekend, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated across the local area, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat during the work week. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the air temperatures, except around the sea breeze, where ocean temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-zero chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the coast very low (near 0%) and highly unlikely to affect the local area.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the terminals as morning stratus/cumulus have lifted above MVFR levels. Expect these clouds to dissipate after sunset with mainly clear skies overnight and winds going calm at the well-inland terminals. Although conditions are not ideal for fog formation, shallow ground fog or patchy low stratus carries moderate confidence at KFLO and KLBT given mainly clear skies and calm winds for much of the night. Otherwise, expect VFR to continue. Another round of stratocumulus is expected develop in the morning, which features low to moderate confidence in cigs at or below MVFR levels until cloud bases lift high enough around midday.

Extended Forecast... Mostly VFR with dry conditions anticipated as high pressure prevails. Low clouds/fog possible each late night/early morning.

MARINE

Tuesday through Sunday...Expect northeast to east winds and seas to subside from tonight through Thursday as high pressure over the central Appalachians holds firmly in place. As a thermal trough develops over the Piedmont late this week, expect winds to veer further into the southeast to south range for Thursday night through Sunday with seas subsiding into the 1-3 ft range. In addition, as temperatures rise well-above normal for Friday-Sunday, expect stronger sea breezes with a more pronounced nearshore enhancement to the winds each afternoon.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels later this week and through the holiday weekend. Below are the records for July 3-5...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.