textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Ice Storm Warning has been issued for Marlboro and Robeson counties where confidence is highest that freezing rain totals will reach 0.25 inches. A Watch remains in effect for Bladen, Dillon, and Darlington counties where there's lower confidence about ice totals reaching the that threshold. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for all but coastal Georgetown County where small amounts of freezing rain are expected to fall Saturday night into Sunday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some wintry weather appears likely for most of eastern North and South Carolina this weekend. Confidence is increasing with regard to temperature fluctuations Sunday and Sunday night, but remains low concerning how much precipitation falls while cold air is present.

2) Well-below normal temperatures will continue through late this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Some wintry weather appears likely for most of eastern North and South Carolina this weekend. Confidence is increasing with regard to temperature fluctuations Sunday and Sunday night, but remains low concerning how much precipitation falls while cold air is present.

Models are finally beginning to come together with some details about how surface temperatures will work out for the weekend storm. Confidence certainly remains lower than is normal for an event now only 24-48 hours in the future. Shallow and very dry arctic air across the area Saturday night will be overrun with a flow of mid and upper level moisture pulled off the Pacific and western Gulf. Model trends over the past several days have been toward less quality of moisture above the shallow arctic air which has led to a reduction of probability and amount of precipitation expected Saturday into Saturday evening. Sub-cloud dewpoints and wet bulb temperatures are certainly cold enough that any light precipitation that breaks out prior to midnight Saturday night will be mainly sleet.

By midnight Saturday night, increasing warm southerly flow just above the surface should reduce the depth of the arctic airmass to less than 2500 feet, then to less than 1500 feet later Sunday morning. This will leave insufficient depth of cold air to refreeze raindrops to sleet, and freezing rain should become the dominant precipitation type. Again, model trends have been toward less quality of moisture aloft and the strongest isentropic lift in that critical 300K-305K region appears to be located largely north of our portion of the Carolinas.

As warmth continues to increase aloft the freezing line at the surface should advance inland Sunday morning, crossing I-95 sometime around noon. Freezing rain could continue to accumulate during the afternoon across Marlboro and western Robeson counties but the remainder of the area should transition to rain. The arctic front itself could draw to within 20-40 miles of the coast as a weak wave of low pressure passes offshore.

I only have enough confidence to upgrade two of our counties, Robeson and Marlboro, to warnings at this time. A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued eastward to the coast where small amounts of freezing rain are expected to fall. In between where there's still potential (but not certainty) that 0.25 inches of ice will accumulate, the Winter Storm Watch remains in effect.

For Sunday night, most models are now showing a second wave of low pressure taking an inland track across GA, SC and eastern NC. An enhanced swath of warm southerly winds associated with this low should finally scour out the arctic air east of I-95 with surface temperatures rising into the 50s or even 60s! Even west of I-95, temperatures should rise above freezing with ice melting off. Any travel issues left over from Sunday should end. Even after this second low moves off to the north late Sunday night and winds become westerly, temperatures should remain warm enough through sunrise Monday for very low odds of re-freezing of moisture on road surfaces.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Well-below normal temperatures will continue through late this week.

Behind the weekend storm system, upper level troughing will remain across the eastern United States. Low temperatures Monday night could be some of the coldest of the season with teens expected for all but the immediate coast. Overnight lows in the lower to middle 20s will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday nights.

Another shortwave aloft moving across the area Thursday may not be able to establish a link to the Gulf and should move through moisture-starved with only some mid clouds around the vort max. However renewed arctic air following behind a surface cold front is expected to bring lows Thursday night back in the teens across the area. NBM blends show this late week airmass may be the coldest airmass of the entire 2025-2026 winter season so far.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence exists in VFR conditions prevailing through the period as mid-level moisture continues to stream overhead. Occasional light showers will remain possible through tonight with transient MVFR cigs not out of the question. Gusty north-northeast winds will take over after midnight as a surge of very dry air arrives, and this will effectively eliminate the risk for MVFR cigs through the remainder of the period as the lowest few thousand feet dry out.

Extended Forecast...A winter storm will impact the area this weekend with prolonged restrictions expected. KFLO and KLBT in particular stand the greatest chance at recording FZRA and IP, especially from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning. VFR should return by Monday afternoon or so, continuing through Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for NCZ087. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for NCZ096. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for NCZ099-105>110. SC...Ice Storm Warning from 7 PM Saturday to 1 AM EST Monday for SCZ017. Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for SCZ023-024. Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 7 PM EST Sunday for SCZ032-033-039-054-055-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.