textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00Z aviation discussion and expiration of high risk of rip currents.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A dry cold front will move south across the region tonight bringing near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. Rain chances should increase mid next week but forecast confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front will move south across the region tonight bringing near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week. Rain chances should increase mid next week but forecast confidence remains low.

A dry cold front will move south through the area tonight bringing temperatures back down to near normal into early next week. Northeast winds are expected to be breezy at times, especially near the coast. Unfortunately, rain chances appear to remain quite low, with the greatest chances near the coast starting Sun night as a coastal trough develops and some upper energy moves through. Hopefully rain chances increase mid next week as advertised, although confidence still remains low given that a rather amplified upper-level weather pattern is likely to evolve which typically creates more uncertainty.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails. A passing dry cold front tonight will bring increasingly gusty NE winds, especially at the coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...Generally VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid next week.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Weak high pressure today will be reinforced tonight after a cold front passes through. High pressure centered north of the area will then likely prevail into mid next week before forecast confidence lowers as a more complex weather pattern likely develops, although poor marine conditions will likely persist nonetheless. We have initiated Small Craft Advisories for all nearshore waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal and confidence is lower.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-256.