textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will move farther off the coast allowing continued warming which could challenge record highs today and Saturday. A decaying band of showers associated with a strong cold front will push through Saturday night, with temperatures falling to below- normal values for Monday before moderating to around normal thereafter.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Warm front has almost cleared the forecast area with fairly widespread 70s with some spots flirting with record highs. High clouds will increase through tonight and shallow moisture will produce some fog and low clouds again Sat morning as temps remain up near 60 for lows with dewpoints close. As the warm and moist air flows over the adjacent waters, some sea fog could develop and may see some dense fog develop and affect the coast. All pcp should remain west of the area with only a very low end chc of some pcp brushing the western reaches of our forecast area.

Models show the fog possibly continuing to affect the coast into Saturday, but confidence is low. The gradient will increase and could push fog inland, but also will see continued WAA through the day. The 850 temps could reach up to 12 or 13c. Overall, expect a breezy and warm Saturday with gusts up to 25 mph or more. Could see another chance for record high temps on Saturday where sunshine is greatest.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

What will eventually be a convection challenged cold front will move across by early Sunday morning. Although pops are high with this feature qpf amounts will be on the low side south of 0.25 and most of this inland. The colder air with the system arrives just a bit later Sunday. Highs Sunday will be coolest inland near 60 and the middle 60s along the coast. Once again a different world for Monday with most areas struggling to reach 50. Thermal profiles are indicative of lows in the middle 20s both Monday and Tuesday morning with perhaps better radiational conditions for Tuesday.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mid level troughing will remain in place most of the period becoming more enhanced by the end of next week. The enhancement will lead to widespread pops but uncertainty remains paramount so the more broader forecast continues. Highs will be in the middle to upper 50s while lows remain in the 30s trending down in time. This trend has warranted a mention of snow early Friday in some areas but almost a week out and a long way to go on this one.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Solidly into southerly flow across the terminals. Will see a mix of high and low clouds through the TAF period in increasing southerly flow tonight through Saturday. The warm and moist air flowing over the adjacent waters could produce some sea fog which may affect coastal terminals. Overall, expect another night with potential for MVFR/IFR conditions in low ceilings and fog, especially in the few hours surrounding daybreak. Wind gusts should reach above 20 kts after 15Z with greatest gusts along the coast Sat afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Coastal fog possible Saturday. Showers will track eastward associated with a cold front Sat night into early Sun morning, but should diminish in area as they move east toward the coast. May produce sub-VFR conditions. Gusty winds will continue behind the front on Sunday as they veer to the W-NW.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Increasing southerly flow will produce gusts up to 25 to 35kts on Saturday, especially along the coast. Gradient will continue to tighten between high pressure offshore and approaching cold front through Saturday. Seas 2 ft or less through early Saturday will rise with increasing southerly push and should end the day up to 3 to 4 ft. This warm and moist air flowing over the cooler shelf waters could produce some sea fog tonight through Saturday.

Saturday night through Tuesday...Winds and seas will continue to increase through Sat night ahead of the cold front. Strong cold air advection will lead to a period of small craft conditions Sunday into early Monday. There has been a slight uptick in the possibility of gales as well. Beyond this winds will take on a more westerly to southwest direction late in the period with speeds 10-15 knots. Significant seas will be 4-7 feet early trending down to 2-4 feet or below in time.

CLIMATE

Max temperatures on Friday and Saturday may reach or exceed the daily records. See below for max temp records on each day... Site Jan 9 Jan 10 Wilmington, NC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 74F (2013) 79F (1957) Florence, SC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) Lumberton, NC: 78F (1907) 78F (1957, 1930)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.