textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much-needed rainfall through early Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Much-needed rainfall through early Saturday.

A cold front draped north of the area will move slowly south through the area tonight into Friday with low pressure passing by along the front offshore into Saturday. Plenty of deep moisture and mid-level energy will prompt periods of much- needed rainfall, including a few thunderstorms. General rain amounts through Saturday are most likely about 0.5-1" but locally higher amounts up to ~2" are possible (especially in eastern SC). Although deep layer shear would support organized storms, instability looks too meager for any severe storms.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR will continue through early this morning with mainly mid level clouds as a cold front begins to drop slowly south through NC. Potential for MVFR ceilings for LBT/FLO developing through late morning with mainly light rain through Thurs aftn with lowering ceilings into Thurs eve with potential for thunder this evening. Coastal terminals will see VFR dominate through this morning with MVFR ceilings becoming dominant later today into this evening. May see some LIFR ceilings after 02z into early Fri morning.

Winds will be gusting out of the SW up to 25 kt. There is a LLJ with SW winds 40+ kt that will be incorporated into a LLWS this morning and possibly again this evening.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are likely to continue into Saturday afternoon as a cold front drops southward, slowly crossing the area Friday into Saturday. VFR returns by late Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Gusty southwest winds up to 25 kts will continue ahead of cold front that will drop slowly south into the area waters by Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions will continue through today with seas increasing to 4 to 7 ft. A limited longer period ENE swell will mix in.

Friday through Monday night...No big changes to the previous forecast with moderate to high confidence through the period. A storm system will move through the area late this week followed by weak high pressure. A cold front should then move through Sun night as colder high pressure builds to the north, with a moderate to high chance for Small Craft Advisory conditions, possibly starting as early as Sun night. Could even see some gale force gusts but the risk for a Gale Warning remains pretty low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256.