textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...High pressure both surface and aloft offshore will keep things warm and rain-free through Thursday...for the most part. The exception may be some very spotty and very light WAA rain late Thursday over farthest inland zones and then again Thursday night. Much better deep layer for ascent comes Friday with a cold front and height falls/PVA from a deep trough developing under a Great Lakes cutoff low. Available moisture doesn't quite look as scant as compared to yesterday especially inland so our QPF is a bit higher there but still generally capped at 0.25".

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR is likely to continue through at least the first half of the night. However, moist low-levels and decreasing winds will likely bring another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog and low cigs to all terminals. One factor that may limit the duration or magnitude of impacts is ongoing cirrus from an approaching front and patches of marine stratocumulus moving onshore. Nevertheless, given higher dewpoints than last night are present and mostly thin high cirrus are passing overhead, confidence is high enough to include fog and low stratus at all terminals. It is possible that the current forecast is not aggressive enough in the severity of restrictions. With southeast winds picking up in the morning, fog and low stratus should exit the coast by around 13Z while restrictions linger inland until mid-late morning. After morning restrictions burn off, mainly VFR can be expected, although the initial cumulus field that develops around midday into the early afternoon can result in transient MVFR cigs.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times from Thursday night through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return over Friday night as drier air filters in and remain in place through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Light onshore flow and manageable conditions slated for the next few days as high pressure remains centered well off to the NE. A cold front approaches on Friday with only a small veer and uptick in wind speeds early followed by more significant veering all the way to N by Saturday. Winds never seem to get above 15kt (even possibly out to 60 nm) so no headlines just steeper wave faces. Offshore flow will a gradually abating trend thereafter.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.