textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will bring very cold temperatures through Monday night. Temperatures will then gradually warm up Tuesday and Wednesday with another system moving across late in the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Once clouds break out in the next couple of hours, expect mainly clear/sunny skies through the period with cold temperatures as arctic high pressure builds into the area. A cold weather advisory is up for tonight into Monday with wind chill values below 10 degrees expected by late evening. Winds should abate enough that wind chills will be above cold weather advisory criteria by 9 AM Monday. Lows tonight will fall to the mid to upper teens with highs Monday from 35 to 40.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Quiet and cold conditions will be in place through the short term (mid week) period. The area of surface high pressure will drift overhead breaking down and drifting offshore as a warming southwest flow develops. Lows Tuesday AM are in the lower 20s but wouldn't be surprised at some lower values in the traditionally cooler areas. Highs will approach 50 perhaps just a bit over southern areas Tuesday followed by more reasonable lows in the lower 30s Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

A somewhat fast moving system will bring pops to the area on and around Thursday in the fast moving zonal flow aloft. Good chance values reside across the area with even a few likely stamps showing up with the frontal passage late Thursday evening. That's about it for pops for the extended period. As for temperatures expect slightly warmer values early on trending downward in time behind the aforementioned front.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected through the valid taf period. Gusty N to NW winds will slowly diminish after sunset with light N winds expected Monday.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the extended period.

MARINE

Through Monday... N to NW winds at 20 to 30 KT with gusts of 35 to 40 KT are expected into tonight. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 KT north and 15 to 20 KT south by Monday afternoon. Seas will peak at 5 to 7 FT overnight into Monday before subsiding to 3 to 6 FT during Monday.

Monday Night through Friday... Winds and seas will dramatically decrease from the values the strong cold air advection will have led to. By Monday evening west winds dropping to single digits will be in place. In time the flow will become south to southwest near ten knots. Very late in the period wind speeds increase ahead of the next system moving across. Significant seas will be 1-3 feet increasing very late coinciding with the increase in winds.

CLIMATE

Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010

Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.