textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

-1) Isolated strong thunderstorms Friday will give way to more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong thunderstorms Friday will give way to more seasonable temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure well to our NE will be losing its weak grip on the area tomorrow, being shunted even further east by the approach of a healthy upper trough and surface cold front. Both should lead to deep layer ascent for pretty good rain chances, which given our continued long duration drought would be potential good news. But given the fairly fast eastward translation of the forced line of precipitation areas that do not deeply convection have fairly meager QPF potential. The severe risk is small but still hard to diagnose as instability will be tough to develop especially given the possible stream of showers/sprinkles streaming up the immediate coast in the morning not unlike the band at the time of this writing. RRFS has a very plausible looking scenario where moderate convection enters the western part of the CWA that intensifies half way across the CWA that then weakens considerably at the immediate coast. The RRFS only develops about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE but shows some mid level dry air supporting the wind threat. Deep layer shear is weak but hodographs show a tornadic signature in the lowest kilometer so an F0 spinup more likely than a meso-induced tornado.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Included TEMPO -SHRA for KILM given radar trends suggesting a few rounds of showers through around 20Z. Low chances for a brief -SHRA also at KFLO and KLBT but brief duration and limited coverage will not include mention at this time. SCT-V-BKN cloud cover for all terminals except KMYR/KCRE given the sea breeze has pushed inland there. Expect clouds to increase during the evening and overnight along with rainfall chances overnight into Friday. Better potential for VCTS at KFLO/KLBT tomorrow morning and persisting through 18Z as the cold front approaches from the west. Not anticipating any significant restrictions outside of any convection that develops.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

High pressure well NE of the area will be pushed eastward tomorrow by a cold front and strong upper trough approaching from the west. S winds will veer slightly to the SW later in the day and then moreso to the NW by night, and eventually N by Saturday. Late in this veering will be about a one category increase in wind speed. Any increase in wave height will be overshadowed by a shortening of wave period from a marine impact standpoint out to 20nm. The offshore/20- 60 zones meanwhile should build into the 4-6 realm late Sat/Sat night. N to NW flow will last for the remainder of the period with a slow abating trend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.