textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, no major changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming temps and gusty winds through midweek with increasing rain chances ahead of next cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming temps and gusty winds through midweek with increasing rain chances ahead of next cold front Thurs into Fri.

Winds will increase out of the SW on Wed ahead of a cold front dropping down from the north. This will help to warm temps back up with 850 temps rising from -8c Tues to plus 8c by late Wed. Should see a fair amount of high clouds across the area on Wed. This front will get stretched out to our north as mid to upper trough remains very broad over the eastern CONUS. By Thurs a shortwave will track across the lower Mississippi Valley with low pressure developing along lingering front. This system will track eastward bringing increasing rain chances into Thurs night. Looking at sounding data, there will be some elevated instability and increased lift into Thurs night and should see possibility of heavier rain.

The best rain chances should shift toward the coast into Fri and may linger into Saturday as wave of low pressure develops along the front. Temps will be cooler on Friday with clouds and pcp as cold front drops south.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR and dry through the 06Z TAF period. Gusts have finally come to an end, and NW to W winds up to ~10 kt will continue for much of the day with just some passing high clouds late. Winds shift to the SW tonight with speeds predominantly below 10 kt by then.

Extended Forecast...VFR until Thursday, when flight restrictions return due to increasing rain chances.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SCA continues through 7 AM this morning with NW gusts still close to 25 kt. The CAA wanes today as winds slowly shift to the W then SW, with the pressure gradient quickly re- tightening into tonight allowing for gusts up to at least 20 kt overnight and seas up to 4-5 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...Southwest winds will increase ahead of a cold front approaching from the north on Wed. The persistent heightened SW flow will push seas up to 4 to 6 ft Wed through Thurs. The warmer SW flow over the cooler Atlantic waters should help to limit gusts somewhat, but should see gusts up to 25 to 30 kts Wed through Thurs. Low pressure should develop along this front and keep gradient tightened into Thurs night before diminishing Fri as front drops southward. This will also produce a shift in winds from SW to NE by late Fri. Seas should drop from 4 to 6 ft down to 3 to 4 ft by Sat morning.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.