textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will be approaching from the north on Tuesday while an upper trough approaches from the northwest. The low level forcing coupled with the mid level height falls will bring fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Given the drought situation QPF potential appears low unfortunately as the bulk of the moisture and forcing will remain north of the area. Wednesday also looks unsettled but less so as the front will be pushed south of the area by a wedge coming in from the north decreasing available moisture. Thereafter the upper low will cut off east of the MidAtlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the Southeast, possibly leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Generally VFR as the previously anticipated stratus will generally remain just south of the area. Showers offshore of the Grand Strand have been dissipating before moving ashore and while confidence is moderate these should remain south of MYR and this moisture will manifest as a mid level ceiling for a portion of the day Sunday as well as at CRE. Some predawn fog is expected at LBT and FLO prior to daybreak. A few seabreeze-related wind shift FM groups needed at coastal terminals.

MARINE

A large area of weak pressure gradient off the southeast coast will minimize winds, short period waves, and swell early in the forecast period. A Tuesday night cold frontal passage should change conditions considerably as high pressure surges in from the north behind the boundary. By Wednesday N to NE winds will ramp up to advisory levels, though the eventual strength of the wind will hinge upon the currently uncertain strength and position of low pressure that forms off the MidAtlantic coast. Seas will also increase to SCA criteria with the same aforementioned uncertainty affecting just how much into SCA criteria seas grow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.