textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low to moderate risk for wintry precipitation with minor accumulations late Sunday into Sunday evening, mainly north and west of a Burgaw to Florence line. At the very least, water freezing on roadways could lead to hazardous travel conditions across the entire region Sunday night into early Monday.

2) Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday/Tuesday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Low to moderate risk for wintry precipitation with minor accumulations late Sunday into Sunday evening, mainly north and west of a Burgaw to Florence line. At the very least, water freezing on roadways could lead to hazardous travel conditions across the entire region Sunday night into early Monday.

High confidence in a rainy start on Sunday as plentiful moisture moves through the area ahead of an upper trough to the west. There seems to be more model agreement regarding the upper trough and surface low offshore lending to increasing forecast confidence overall. Still looks like a mainly low risk for wintry precipitation Sunday, especially in the afternoon/evening closer to the SC Pee Dee and NC Sandhills where the coldest air is expected. However, still lingering uncertainty regarding how much the cold air/moisture overlap. The 01Z NBM still shows a moderate risk for measurable snow (0.1" or greater) near the NC Sandhills and SC Pee Dee with a 20% chance or less of at least an inch. In any event, any wet roadways by late Sunday will re-freeze Sunday night as temps fall below freezing most places, so black ice could make travel hazardous into Monday morning (especially inland). Everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast for early next week, especially if they have travels plans.

Note: The last widespread measurable snow across our area was January 21-22, 2025. Additional flurries and snow showers occurred on November 10, 2025.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday/Tuesday nights.

The combination of below normal temperatures and wind could lead to dangerously cold wind chill temperatures around 20 degrees or colder Monday and Tuesday nights. The best chance of seeing wind chills of 15 degrees or lower which would require a Cold Weather Advisory will be Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR. Some LLWS is possible for inland terminals early this morning before winds start gusting after sunrise. SW winds will gust 20-25 kts through the day with high clouds moving in overhead. Low to mid- level clouds may start to build in towards the end of the 24 hr TAF period with MVFR VSBY restrictions possible in rain.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely tonight through Sunday night. VFR likely through Wednesday with restrictions possible again Thursday due to another front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SW winds will gust ~20 kts through the day ahead of a cold front. Waves will be 2-4 ft and a SW wind wave 3-4 ft at 5 seconds and a weak easterly swell ~9-10 seconds.

Sunday through Wednesday Night...Moderate to high confidence this period. Winds/seas will remain elevated prior to and after cold frontal passages Sunday and again Monday night into early Tuesday but the risk for a Small Craft Advisory (for 25 kt gusts) is low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.