textproduct: NWS Wilmington

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...High pressure will be located well off of the DelMarva Coast next several days as will a ridge in the mid levels. Both anticyclones will be elongated SW to NE meaning they both extend an axis into the Southeastern U.S. Both progress/are pushed eastward on Friday as an upper low drops into the Great Lakes, a cold front approaching from our NW in tandem. Looks like a narrow line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will push through Friday, tending to favor the afternoon hours. And while actual rain chances remain high the QPF prospects will be minimized by the line's quick transition of offshore.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR until late tonight. Confidence decreases heading towards daybreak as some fog and even some low clouds may develop in our current broad regime of onshore flow. Guidance is trying to congeal on a solution where VSBY takes the biggest hit inland at FLO/LBT which makes sense climatologically and wind speeds should decrease the most diurnally. Things also looking uncertain about fog/stratus at coastal terminals so have downplayed at this time.

MARINE

Increasingly light onshore winds for the next few days as the high well to our northeast gradually drifts further out to sea off the DelMarva Coast. A cold front approaches Friday turning wind to the S Thursday night, the boundary itselt slated for passage Friday night. Both the surge of high pressure and low level thermal advection post- FROPA look quite tempered and so not expecing any headlines. The veering flow will shorten dominant wave periods especially in the absence of much swell energy.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.