textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast this morning, translating inland this afternoon. Showers and storms remain possible well into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms along the coast this morning, translating inland this afternoon. Showers and storms remain possible well into next week.

Onshore movement of convection this morning, mainly from Myrtle Beach north to Surf City, will be aided by an embedded mid-level s/w trof or vort. Sea breeze to develop by midday and progress inland. Convection will then become more concentrated along and west of the sea breeze this aftn/evening with the coastal counties drying out later this aftn into tonight. A stalled front draped ENE to WSW from the northern O.B. across central NC into central SC will also be a player for convection to develop along this afternoon. Rainfall amounts, SC Coastal counties will generally observe up to 0.10 inches while NC Coastal counties will generally see 0.15-0.30 inches. Inland counties, in the vicinity and west of I-95, could observe 0.20-0.40 inches. (Better than nothing at this stage of the ongoing drought)

The cold front will have moved north by Saturday stalling over the Carolinas but out of our area. PWATS 1.5-2" will linger through the period with a summer-like pattern of daily scattered showers/storms. There does seem to be more rainfall potential for Saturday depending on small pockets of PVA aloft and the proximity of the front. These would aid in coverage around and west of I-95 where isolated rainfall amounts +1" are possible. Otherwise the main driver will be the afternoon sea breeze moving inland by the evening. Another front may approach the area mid next week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR will become common during this morning, mainly due to ceilings. Guidance not as gungho with fog potential but coastal terminals could observe onshore movement of MVFR/IFR reduced vsby and lower ceilings from pcpn later this morning that will translate inland midday into this aftn as the sea breeze develops and progresses inland. The coastal terminals should become VFR this aftn thru this evening. Inland terminals will see flight restrictions from scattered tstorms this aftn and evening. The stalled front(whats left of it) will likely interact with inland progressing sea breeze to further continue the convective threat well into this evening. MVFR/IFR from ceilings possible after 06Z across all terminals. Winds generally Variable 5 kt or less becoming S-SSW less than 5 kt, then increasing to 10 kt during this aftn/evening. The exception will be the coastal terminals, where winds will be affected by the sea breeze and likely back to the SSE around 10 kt.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions each morning (mainly in the 08z-12z timeframe). Periodic flight restrictions are also possible each afternoon/evening due to convection.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Sfc Bermuda high pressure will continue to ridge across the area waters from the east, reaching both Carolina coasts during this period. This will influence a SSE-S wind around 10 kt across the coastal waters, and 10 to around 15 kt across the adjacent offshore waters thru the period. Seas will run 2 to 4 ft, except up to 5 ft across the offshore waters. An 8-10 second period southeast swell will dominate the seas spectrum. The sea breeze produced, 3 to 4 second period wind chop, will make an appearance this aftn into this evening.

Saturday through Wednesday...SSE winds 10-15 kts with gusts 20-60nmi 20-25 kts. Winds will become a bit more SW on Wednesday as the next front approaches. Seas 2-4 ft out to 20nmi and largely 4 ft beyond to 60nmi.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.