textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The pattern remains rather static with very high heights and thickness values in place. By late week heights will start to rise in the west and some weak troughiness will develop in the east but not of sufficient strength for any heat- breaking frontal passages. The boundary that moves through today will bring no appreciable advection (though Wednesday's period of light onshore flow could temper highs within a few miles of the beaches). But otherwise:

Highs in the mid to upper 90s are expected to continue until Friday. These readings paired with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s and occasionally low 80s will necessitate heat-related headlines each day. The only nuance will be which days will bring lower dewpoints down over inland zones where an advisory will be sufficient (HI values of 105-109) and how much of the eastern CWA will requite a warning (HI values of 110 or higher). The differences will be very minor and WWA maps showing headlines will likely look very much like both today and yesterday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence exists for prevailing VFR through the period outside of a stray passing shower or storm this afternoon. The best relative chance for a IFR to LIFR vis restriction is at KILM, leading to a PROB30 there while chances are too low to mention elsewhere. Otherwise, expect cumulus between 5-7kft this afternoon, dissipating this evening, then passing high cirrus overnight. A low risk for MVFR mist exists overnight, but confidence is too low to mention at this time.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions at times but generally not until Friday.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday... Benign conditions expected for most of the period. A weak boundary pushes through today turning SW flow to light and variable tonight followed by a period of light onshore flow Wednesday. Thereafter a more typical SW flow returns as the boundary washes out but wind speeds will remain very tame even by late summer standards. The approach of a front could lead to a slight inc in winds and seas Saturday. A SE swell will be coincident with the wind waves through the duration.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.