textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Upgraded the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning for the 20-60 nm waters. Also issued a longer duration Coastal Flood Advisory since the next few high tides are expected to reach minor coastal flood thresholds. No other major changes were made to the current forecast or key messaging. The aviation discussion was also updated for the 18Z TAF set.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through mid next week.

A highly amplified mid/upper ridge extending across the central U.S. northward into Canada will persist while an upper low embedded in very dry air moves southward along the SC coast today. Other than some moisture in the low-levels due to a NEly fetch the remainder of the column will be very dry through the weekend and upcoming week. The area of surface high pressure coupled with a broad area of low pressure far off the southeast U.S. coast will result in a tightened pressure gradient allowing for breezy conditions at times Saturday and Sunday, especially for coastal areas. The NE trajectory could allow some showers to approach the coast, but expect most of the shallow convection to remain off the coast this weekend. Highs will likely run near or slightly above normal through the forecast period with lows slightly above normal at the coast to at or below normal for the inland locations.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide cycle, initially along the SE NC coast and lower Cape Fear River and then spreading southward along the NE SC coast with tomorrow morning's high tide. The coastal flooding will likely persist with each high tide into early next week.

High Surf: Could see surf heights approach advisory thresholds this weekend. The waves coupled with higher water levels could result in some erosion as well, especially for E facing beaches.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR condition will prevail through the TAF period given the mostly dry column expected. NEly winds will persist this afternoon, but with a stronger low-level wind field mixing will lead to gusts in the 20-25 kt range during Saturday.

18Z Sat thru Wed: VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25 knots at times Sunday. There are low chances of low clouds affecting the coastal terminals at times given the low- level trajectory with most of the cloud cover remaining off the coast.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...High pressure to the north will prevail through the period and with low pressure developing far offshore will tighten the pressure gradient. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected tonight for the 0-20 nm waters. Stronger winds and higher gusts are expected across the offshore waters and have opted to upgrade the Gale Watch to a Gale Warning with the afternoon forecast package. NEly flow counter to the Gulf Stream will result in very steep/hazardous maritime conditions offshore. The NEly flow will persist and diminish some through mid-week. However, marine conditions are always slower to improve in NEly fetches thus boating conditions will not be favorable for much of the upcoming week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 11 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ280-284.