textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Heat Advisory remains in effect through this evening. The aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Rain chances increase late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Rain chances increase late this weekend into early next week.

Latest round of guidance prompted no substantial changes to the forecast. Above normal temperatures have arrived with high pressure at the surface and ridging just to our north. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early this evening and hot and humid conditions on Saturday may necessitate another advisory. Low level moisture transport will allow surface moisture to recover this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected on Saturday as a weakness in the ridge deepens on Saturday. Rain chances increase on Sunday and Monday as an area of low pressure develops over the northeastern Gulf. This area of low pressure will drift northeastward into early next week and bring tropical moisture to the region. Confidence on location and exact impacts remains low.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR this afternoon. A stray shower is possible along the sea breeze. Onshore flow may produce brief MVFR this evening and overnight at the coast where onshore flow is more persistent. Winds turn SW late tonight, so all terminals should become VFR.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the weekend with predominantly VFR conditions expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday should increase in coverage substantially Sunday into Monday as a tropical disturbance moves near the area. Expect brief flight restrictions from this activity.

MARINE

W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible for the weekend as the pressure gradient increases. Wind waves become more dominant with seas 2-3 feet early this weekend increasing to 4-5 feet Saturday night into Sunday. Some 6 footers are possible 20+ nmi offshore. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure development in the SE U.S. late this weekend into next week. Latest guidance re-establishes a strong gradient during the middle of next week as the surface low passes to our south and east. Confidence is low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.