textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland.

2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures to remain above normal through Thursday, especially inland.

Deep high pressure over the area with unseasonably warm mid- level temperatures will help sustain above normal temperatures through Thursday, especially well inland closer to I-95. Highs for Florence and Lumberton have been 90+ since May 17, so a 5-day streak would eclipse this year's earlier streak of 4 days of 90+ degree temps from April 15-18. Coastal areas will remain significantly cooler due to the southerly winds bringing cooler air from off the Atlantic inland.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front stalls in the Carolinas.

Outside of widely scattered sea breeze convection Thursday afternoon, most of daytime Thursday will remain dry. A front dropping south late in the day before stalling, combined with increasing PWATs due to influx of Gulf moisture with developing low- level southerly flow, will slowly increase rain chances Thursday night into Friday. As CAD wedge develops to our northwest Friday into the weekend, a coastal trough/front lingers across the eastern Carolinas maintaining unsettled weather and likely pops Friday through Sunday with PWATs of 1.5+" in place. While weak impulses aloft and low-level isentropic lift will aid in our elevated rain chances Friday - Sunday, precipitation coverage will be more scattered in nature with potential for brief pockets convective, slightly heavier, rain rates. Looking at LREF (ensemble) guidance, a decent total QPF range remains for Thursday through Sunday, ranging from 0.5" to 2" near I-95 corridor and 0.2" to 1.25" close to the coast. Our area can certainly use the rain to help with our ongoing severe-extreme drought conditions.

Rain chances continue into early next week in WAA regime following breakdown of the CAD, although more uncertainty exists as offshore ridge attempts to build westward.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru the 18Z TAF period, especially near the coast at KCRE/KMYR/KILM. The best chance of restrictions from fog/low clouds overnight (mainly 08-12Z) looks to be inland at KLBT but model guidance isn't very agreeable, likely due to the limited/shallow nature of the moisture. Thus, confidence remains low.

Extended Forecast...Moderate confidence in MVFR/IFR vsbys/ceilings each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Restrictions are possible due to showers/storms starting Thu but moreso starting Fri.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer- like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure. Southerly winds will mostly be 10-15 kt or less, although locally higher near the Gulf Stream beyond 20 nm tonight and near the coast due to the sea breeze Thursday afternoon. Waves will continue to be dominated by 2- 4 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells.

Thursday Night through Monday...Bermuda high pressure offshore will maintain southerly winds across the local waters Thursday night into early next week. Wind speeds generally in the 10-15 kts range throughout the period, with gusts near 20 kts for the 20-60nm waters. Seas fairly steady around 3 ft out to 20nm, and 4 ft out to 60nm, primarily due to SE swell. Lingering front inland through the weekend, along with WAA regime, will lead to daily rain and thunderstorm chances, particularly during overnight hours for the coastal waters starting Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.