textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)A rainy weekend should bring minor drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A rainy weekend should bring minor drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The weather map is looking a bit more like Summer with strong Bermuda High in place. It has not only led to warm temperatures but today especially has increased dewpoints across the area. So when a cold front drops in on Saturday accompanied by weak mid level forcing in the form of PVA rain appears a near certainty. High rain chances remain on Sunday as the boundary stalls an has weak waves of low pressure traversing its length for a little bit of added lift. A secondary front on Monday should cut off the deep moisture but the chance for light rain will continue. Area average forecasts are generally in the 1-2" range with higher amounts possible especially inland.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Guidance continues to trend toward a significant fog and stratus event. The latest forecast reflects this trend with IFR at all sites. It should be noted several small fires continue to burn around the area due to development/land clearing so this could play a role as well.

Extended Outlook... Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture through the end of the week. Moderate to high risk for showers/storms starting mainly Sat aftn at all terminals and continuing through Mon as a front stalls over or near the area.

MARINE

Bermuda high pressure to be the main wind-maker until a cold front arrives on Saturday. It's center will be far enough east to keep winds light so fairly small wind waves expected along with the SE swell. Winds light and variable with the arrival and subsequent stalling of the boundary nearby followed by a return of light southerly flow as another boundary approaches. The second boundary much strong and very progressive leading to a clean FROPA and a good surge of high pressure that could build conditions to advisory thresholds late in the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.