textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track at the 2 PM EDT forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Everyday Well into Next Week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Everyday Well into Next Week.

Generally isolated showers and maybe a thunderstorm will push inland with the sea breeze this afternoon with better rain chances pushing into the coast later tonight due to a stalling weak cold front. The front will dissipate Friday but the sea breeze should help to focus mainly scattered showers and a few weak storms along the inland- progressing sea breeze. Rainfall amounts thru the day Fri should be a tenth to half inch for most locales, although some spots could see up to around three quarters of an inch, especially around the Cape Fear region.

The old frontal boundary tries to get closer to the coast Friday night, but won't get there, due to lack of significant energy aloft and perpendicular onshore flow in the lower levels. Speaking of that onshore flow, more moisture gets pumped into the atmosphere Friday night into Saturday morning, causing dewpoints to soar well into the lower 70s across the entire forecast area (hello summer). This will combine with lobes of subtle shortwave energy aloft traversing through the area through Saturday, allowing rain chances to tick up. Scattered showers and storms possible along the coast, while the seabreeze pushing inland may collide with the weak front and provide a bit more coverage inland, particularly along and west of I-95.

The front fizzles out sometime Sunday, but chances for showers and storms remain each day, on account of the seabreeze and even the Piedmont trough working with rich moisture from the Bermuda high. Lobes of shortwave energy may help with the rain at times, with the "dirty" Bermuda ridge operating between upper lows near ArkLaTex and the Great Lakes/Northeast into early next week. Diurnal trends will lead the way, with more activity ramping up in the afternoon, but no widespread washouts are expected at this time.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in mainly VFR conditions thru much of the 18Z TAF period. However, do expect periodic restrictions possibly down to IFR levels from fog (mainly at KLBT/KFLO late tonight), low clouds (mainly at KLBT/KFLO/KILM late tonight into Fri morning), and showers (mainly at KILM and possibly KCRE late tonight spreading inland toward KLBT/KFLO toward 18Z Fri).

Extended Forecast...Moderate confidence in at least MVFR vsbys/cigs each morning (mainly in the 08z-12z timeframe), especially inland at KLBT/KFLO. Restrictions are also possible due to mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms each day.

MARINE

Through Friday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer-like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure. Southerly winds will mostly be 10-15 kt or less. Waves will continue to be dominated by 2-5 foot, 8-9 second southeast swells.

Friday Night through Monday...Winds stay reliably out of the SSE, maintaining a gentle breeze over the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to a moderate breeze over the offshore waters out 60 nm. Seas linger at 2-3 ft out 20 nm, up to 3-4 ft out 60 nm. Outside of wind waves, look for a ENE swell at 8-10 seconds, and a SE swell at 7-8 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.