textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes. Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Near-freezing temperatures are possible tonight.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Near-freezing temperatures are possible tonight.

Near-freezing temperatures are possible tonight. Latest HREF probs for temperatures below freezing are around 30% east of US-701 and north of US-74. Probabilities peak in northern Pender County and Robeson County at 40%.

Upper level clouds may complicate the low temperature forecast yet again. Moisture profiles indicate that the best chance for cirrus will occur this evening. There could also be a brief period of mid level clouds at midnight. This would occur as a mid level trough axis moves through the area. Confidence is lower in these mid level clouds due to the drier air at this level. The potential limitation in radiational cooling could keep temperatures just above freezing for inland areas. Our typical cold spots should reach the freezing mark, but only just. While a freeze appears marginal, wet soils should favor patchy frost despite marginal low level RH.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR. A few gusts to 15 knots are possible this morning. As high pressure builds to the north of the area, winds become light and gustiness subsides by the afternoon. VFR CIGs expected this morning with clear skies for the afternoon.

Extended Forecast... VFR likely through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure centered over the Mid-Atlantic will maintain northeasterly flow today. Weak cold advection will maintain 10-15 knots of wind through tonight. Brief surge in seas this morning will gradually decrease today, returning to 2-4 feet by this evening.

Thursday through Sunday... Elongated high pressure and resulting weak gradient will yield quiet marine conditions into the start of next week. Location of the ridge axis will keep winds northerly into Fri, before the axis shifts south and east of the waters, setting up return flow. Speeds generally 10-15 kt, on the lower end Fri and at the upper end Sun. Seas in the 2-4 ft range, lowest on Fri and highest on Sun.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Freeze Warning until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.