textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below freezing temperatures and lingering low level moisture could lead to patchy freezing fog and/or spots of black ice tonight into early Friday morning. Take care on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses.

2) An Arctic cold front will bring brisk winds and a very cold weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night.

3) A warming trend will begin into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below freezing temperatures and lingering low level moisture could lead to patchy freezing fog and/or spots of black ice tonight into early Friday morning. Take care on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses.

The recent rain could lead to fog formation tonight, particularly for inland NE SC, and some guidance has started to pick up on that though with some uncertainty in coverage. This fog paired with temperatures dropping below freezing fairly early tonight and lows dropping into the 20s would lead to freezing fog while also freezing any water left on the roadways. There is a chance that we radiate out with the calm winds but there is some rounds of clouds overnight that should help to combat that, so have only lowered low temps a tad from NBM. Right now it looks like inland might be dealing with more of a fog problem and the coast more of a black ice problem since the roads still look wet on highway cameras. There's several things that will have to come together so for now have held off on any headlines so that the next round of guidance can add some confidence to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An Arctic cold front will bring brisk winds and a very cold weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night.

Deep northwest to northerly winds behind an arctic cold front will bring very cold temperatures and even colder wind chills into the weekend. Temperatures will run a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal over the weekend, even with plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows on Saturday will drop down near 20 degrees and will feel even cooler. This may lead to a Cold Weather Advisory for Sat night with wind chill values of 15 or less, especially over North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend will begin into next week. Temperatures will warm starting on Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast allowing for a warmer return flow. 850 temps will rise from near -12c on Sat up close to 8c late Mon through Wed. Should see temps rise into the 60s with overnight lows midweek warmer than our high temps this weekend.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

IFR CIGs with some VSBY issues sticking around at the coast, should clear up within the next several hours. Then the issue will be fog tonight. For now best chances are at KFLO and perhaps KLBT where we could be looking at MVFR or maybe even IFR VSBYs. Elsewhere there's a bit more uncertainty. Have trended towards restrictions but still uncertain.

Extended Forecast... VFR.

MARINE

Through Friday...A NE surge behind the cold front that went through today will lead to an increase in winds and seas tonight, so have kept the Small Craft Advisory in place.

Friday night through Tuesday...A surge of NW to N winds behind an Arctic cold front late Friday into Saturday will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to the area waters Fri night through Sat night and may see some gale force gusts on Saturday. The strong offshore component to the winds will keep the greatest seas in the outer waters with most waters in 3 to 5 ft within 20 nm of the coast. Winds and seas will drop Sun into Mon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.