textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

Remains of a 5h low accompanied by deep moisture will pass offshore today. This feature helps spread deeper moisture and weak PVA over the area leading to an uptick in convection, especially closer to the coast. Inland convection will lag the coast a bit and will depend more on lingering boundaries and some weak pre-frontal convergence, so far from a sure thing. Lack of strong winds and poor lapse rates along with limited instability suggest minimal severe potential today, although lightning will remain a threat with any deeper convection.

Significant change in conditions Wed/Thu following tonight's cold front. Wedge sets up, dropping temperatures below normal and forecast soundings show plenty of low level moisture under the inversion, strongly suggesting low clouds and mist/drizzle/light rain. Cutoff low off the Mid-Atlantic coast along with associated surface low will ensure northerly flow continues through at least Thu and wouldn't be shocked if the wedge holds on through at least part of Fri, potentially keeping the end to the week cloudy and cool. Eventually the deep dry air works its way into the 5h low and filters to the surface. The wedge breaks late in the week due to the dry air and a shift in the location of the surface high in response to the movement of stacked low off the East Coast.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Low cigs are spreading southwestward on increasing low-level northeasterly winds, with the NC terminals currently impacted. Expect these to near the coastal SC terminals, although confidence is low as to whether they will make it to the SC terminals before daytime heating starts to mix out these clouds. Scattered showers and storms have formed mainly near the Grand Strand, and these will pose a risk for brief restrictions as they move southwestward. Inland sites could see a late day round of showers and a few thunderstorms develop ahead of the approaching front. The cold front arrives late in the period and will bring enhanced northerly winds and IFR ceilings before 12Z Wednesday.

Extended Outlook...High likelihood of MVFR/IFR ceilings Wednesday and Thursday. Otherwise VFR.

MARINE

Weak gradient and benign conditions continue into tonight before the passage of a cold front brings about a big change. Prolonged stretch of enhance northeast flow sets up later tonight and persists through at least Fri. While there is at least some potential for winds of 34kt or greater at some point Thu, especially for the offshore waters, the potential and confidence right now are low. No plans for headlines of any kind at this point give the time range and low confidence on when SCA conditions will develop. The strength and duration of the northeast flow will likely require several days of headlines before conditions slowly improve over the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.