textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation 06Z TAF discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above to well above normal temps for the Wed thru Sat time period, possibly reaching record levels away from the immediate coast Fri.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above to well above normal temps for the Wed thru Sat time period, possibly reaching record levels away from the immediate coast Fri.

Upper ridging to extend across the SE States from the Gulf during the Wed into Sat time period. Models keep it consistently amplified enough or not enough, depends how one looks at it. The end result is that Southeast NC and Northeast SC to remain south of where several cold fronts stall before lifting back to the north as warm fronts. This keeps the FA in the warm sector Wed into Sat with SW-WSW flow dominating, except winds may back to the SSW-S each aftn/evening nearshore as an active but pinned sea breeze will occur. Daily max temps will run into the 70s except possibly approaching 80 Fri especially if there is a less potential for pcpn and widespread cloudiness. The immediate coast will run 10 to 15 degrees cooler than their inland comrades due to a pinned sea breeze. Bare in mind normal highs run in the low 60s, so we're looking at 10 to 15 degrees above normal, possibly up to 20 degrees Fri! Daily lows will run in the mid to upper 50s during this period, with normal lows in the upper 30s. Unfortunately, what cloud put a damper to these above normal readings is if any of these fronts drop further south before stalling, ie partially across SE NC and/or NE SC.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Predominantly VFR through 6z tonight. Exception will be patchy fog developing over the next few hours, mainly MVFR vsbys but IFR is possible. Conditions will improve quickly after sunrise with mostly clear skies into tonight. Light winds for this TAF period, with 4-7 kt southerly winds this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through mid- week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure currently overhead will shift offshore later today. This will turn light northeasterly winds over the waters this morning to southerly by tonight. Seas 2-3 ft today and tonight, with a few 4 footers in the outer coastal waters this morning, mix of SE swell and an incoming ENE long period swell that arrives today.

Wednesday through Saturday night... Surface high pressure to slide offshore from the SE States and park well offshore by late Wed. During the same time, the sfc pg will tighten across the waters as a cold front drops to the SSE before stalling just north of the waters as it becomes oriented parallel with the flow aloft given the low amplitude ridging aloft. Decent SW winds 15 to 20 kt, few gusts to 25 kt, Wed into Wed nite b4 dropping off as the sfc pg relaxes some later Wed nite thru Thu given the stalled front in the vicinity. The front returns back to north as a warm front late Thu with the sfc pg re-tightening Thu night into Fri. SW winds to increase back to 15 to 20 kt with few gusts to 25 kt. Have kept the 25 kt gusts infrequent given the SSTs in the 40s, difficult to frequently mix down this warm air over the cool shelf waters. For Fri night into Sat, another cold front drops to the area and stalls in the vicinity. The sfc pg relaxes again Sat thru Sat night with SW winds diminishing. Cold front poised to move across the waters later Sat night as the upper ridging breaks down as a southern stream upper s/w trof hooks up with a northern stream s/w trof allowing for a wave of low pressure to develop along the cold front. Seas will be governed by short period wind driven waves during increased SW winds. When those SW winds abate, look for a 10+ second period ENE-E swell to dominate. Have included patchy sea fog later Wed thru Fri. Given upper 50s to around 60 sfc dewpoints advecting across shelf waters where SSTs are in the 45 to 50 range. SW- WSW Wind directions will likely keep the sea fog to a minimum, unless there's a more southerly direction at some point at which the immediate coast may observe some onshore sea fog movement.

..Record highs for 2/20/2026

Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.