textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) While a few chances for rain may be present in the forecast, the over-arching impact will be the continuation of the drought.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...While a few chances for rain may be present in the forecast, the over-arching impact will be the continuation of the drought.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... There is a good chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms Saturday ahead of a cold fropa Saturday night, but no significant weather impacts are anticipated. Another cold frontal passage is still slated for late Monday. There will be some Atlantic moisture transported into the Carolinas ahead of the boundary. The mid- and upper-level trough driving this boundary will dig deep into the Mid Atlantic. As such the front will push through rather quickly. Even though pockets of heavy rain appear possible, the overall southward translation of the system and its lack of synoptic scale moisture will preclude meaningful drought relief for two main reasons. First off, area- wide QPF prospects appear inadequate. Secondly, the precip likely arrives with a band of heavy showers and thunderstorms whose initial rain batch falls on dry ground, largely lost to runoff.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR cu through this afternoon with VFR expected to continue through the majority of the period. Winds will turn to the SW tonight with the warm front, cloud cover increasing. Winds will be out of the west during the day Saturday with a return to scattered showers/storms.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR possible Saturday night as showers and storms are pushed south once more. Sunday is looking restriction free with drier air in place before brief MVFR/IFR from scattered afternoon and evening storms returns early next week.

MARINE

Through Sunday... A warm front will come up from the south tonight into Saturday with winds becoming SW and then W during the day. Ridging high pressure will then force the front to the south Saturday night with the beginnings of a NE surge in our far northern waters. Marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions likely Saturday night through Sunday morning, for a combo of frequent gusts up to ~25 and seas close to 6 ft over outer portions of the marine zones. Gusts will stay below gale force so no Gale Warning will be needed over the 20-60 nm zones.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Improving marine conditions for late Sunday into Monday with sfc high pressure offshore allowing for light southerly flow. The next cold front moves through Monday night, followed by northerly winds of at least 10-20 kt for Tuesday and Wednesday. Could definitely see an uptick in winds during part of that two-day period as we get closer to then, potentially prompting another marginal SCA.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM Saturday to 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.