textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 6 AM EDT. Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances slowly on the rise as an old frontal boundary continues to push inland and north through today.

2) Some stronger storms can be expected as a cold front approaches over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances slowly on the rise as an old frontal boundary continues to push inland and north through today.

A cold front that finally cleared the forecast area the past couple of days allowing for a couple of nice late summer days/periods is now on the move north again. This will bring a southerly feed of moisture back with pcp water values increasing from less than 1.5 inches to back over 2 inches through this morning. Fairly deep layer moisture in S-SW flow will exist as mid to upper trough remains just west of area. The strongest storms should remain right along the coast this morning, but should push inland this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Some stronger storms can be expected as a cold front approaches over the weekend.

Mid to upper trough will push a front slowly south and and east into the weekend. This will increase rain/convection chances through essentially the weekend as deeper layer moisture and instability will exist. The best forcing and moisture look to be Friday through early Saturday. SPC continues to shade most of our area in Marginal (level 1 of 5) for Friday. The frontal system will be slow to move off to the southeast but some guidance is now advertising a brief clean cold passage early next week with a few days of drier conditions. This should bring back increased sunshine and possible heat headlines as 594dam ridge builds over the Southeast next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Seeing brief bouts of MVFR low stratus along mostly the coastal terminals, but that should lift out by 13Z or so.

Increased shower activity with isolated thunderstorms will continue to move up through the adjacent coastal waters, bringing increasing SHRA chances to the coastal terminals this morning. This will increase potential for mainly MVFR conditions with reduced ceilings and visibility in rain to KMYR, KCRE, and KILM. Low to moderate potential for impacts exists at all local airports, mainly prior to 17z along the coast and after 17z inland. Heavy rain in TSRA could bring the category down to IFR for brief periods.

Mostly a lull in the activity expected tonight, sans more showers possibly scraping KILM. MVFR ceilings may build in over the inland terminals towards the end of the 12Z TAF period.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the area as well in a warm and humid airmass. The next cold front should move into the area Friday night or Saturday. Rain chances look to come down Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Through Monday...South to southeast winds will be in place throughout the forecast period as a slow moving front/mid level trough approaches from the west. There could be a somewhat clean frontal passage early next week leading to a brief NE flow. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots and there doesn't appear to be any threat of headlines through the period. Seas should rise slightly in slight increase in wind through Fri, but overall expect seas 3 ft or less through Mon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.