textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gradual warming through midweek followed by scattered convection associated with a cold front late Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming through midweek followed by scattered convection associated with a cold front late Thursday.

Warming will take place as high pressure establishes itself offshore with a warmer southerly return flow setting up. Wed will be the warmest with temps well into the 80s away from the beaches. Moisture will be on the rise Wed into Thurs with persistent and deeper SW flow. Dewpoint temps will be back up in the 60s by Wed aftn with pcp water values reaching around one and a half inch. Expect greatest chc of isolated and more localized thunderstorms, especially right along the sea breeze boundary inland of the coast. Overall should see chc of shwrs back in the forecast possibly by Wed but definitely by Thurs as deepening mid to upper trough pushes a cold front closer. By Thurs aftn, there will be better upper level support to produce possibly stronger tstorms, but latest model runs show less coverage on Thurs. Cooler air will follow behind the front for Fri with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect VFR conditions through the valid taf period with W-NW winds of 10 KT or less becoming more westerly by evening. Winds may become light and variable overnight before becoming light s to sw after sunrise Monday.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An approaching cold front on Thursday may produce early-morning stratus along with transient restrictions in showers or thunderstorms during the day. VFR should return for Friday.

MARINE

Through Monday...Within 20 NM, light n to nw winds will veer to s to sw tonight into Monday. Seas of 2 to 4 FT this afternoon will subside to 2 FT by Monday.

From 20 to 60 NM out, light n to nw winds will veer to s to sw by Monday. Seas of 4 to 5 FT this afternoon will subside to 2 to 3 FT by Monday afternoon.

Monday night through Friday...High pressure will establish itself farther offshore Monday through Thurs with a persistent southerly flow setting up. This will drive seas up slowly Tues through Thur, especially as gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front on Thurs. Also will see a spike in winds and backing of winds near shore in aftn sea breeze into midweek.

Winds will increase to and above SCA thresholds Thu with sporadic Gale force gusts across the offshore waters, as gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the coastal and offshore waters Thu evening/night with post frontal gusty NW to N winds likely continuing the SCA threat and possible Gale gusts offshore.

Seas will generally be less than 3 ft through Tue morning, increasing to 3 to 4 ft on Wed and 3 to 6 ft Thu. Should see up to 7 ft in offshore waters beyond 30 nm through late Thurs. Seas will drop on Fri as winds diminish.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.