textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAF cycle issuance.

Low rip current risk for all 5 county beaches Fri 7/17.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

Ridging will build just north of the area with a return to above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Model guidance continues to show temperatures and dewpoints Friday that will result in apparent temperatures above 105 degrees. Confidence in that is low attm as there is potential for dry air to mix down with heating Friday such that apparent temperatures won't reach 105 degrees. By the weekend, moisture should have recovered enough to support typical afternoon showers/storms with isolated to scattered coverage, but these aren't anticipated to help to abate the heat threat into next week. There are signals that low pressure could form somewhere in the SE U.S. which could impact the rainfall forecast headed into next week but uncertainty is high at this time.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions to dominate the 24 hr 00Z Taf Issuance period. Will be dealing with cirrus and haze(smoke) aloft thruout this period. Haze(Smoke) is being accessed by the circulation aloft that is partially picking up the haze (smoke) thats swept off the NE and Mid-Atlantic States Coasts via satellite imagery, RAOBs and model trends. From the ground point of you, the sky will have a milky look to it during the day with a slight rust colored look during sunset and/or sunrise depending on its thickness. Expect diurnal Cu in the 5k to 7k ft range to occur later Fri morning thru the afternoon. The subsidence inversion to remain just strong enough to keep a lid on convection with the exception of an isolated showers/tstorm. Similar to what occurred today as far as coverage is concerned, not enough to place in any of the TAFS. Synoptic Winds to veer to westerly around 5 kt tonight, keeping fog limited/isolated, and continuing thru Fri. Exception will be when the mesoscale sea breeze sets up and progresses inland. look for winds to become southerly 10-15 g20 kt at the coastal terminals.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the upcoming weekend with predominantly VFR conditions through the period. Isolated convection Sat increasing to scattered Sun into early next week. Expect brief flight restrictions from this activity.

MARINE

Thursday through Monday... W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory gusts may be possible for the weekend as the PG increases, and the wind wave will become more dominant. Seas largely 2-3 ft increasing to 4-5 ft this weekend. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure development in the se U.S. late this weekend into next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.