textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we head towards 7 AM EDT. Aviation discussion updated accordingly for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unseasonable Warmth Continues Through the Weekend.

- 2) Showers and a Few Thunderstorms On the Way Late Sunday and Sunday Night Ahead of a Cold Front.

- 3) Temperatures Dip Below Seasonal Norms Monday Through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Temperatures Dip Below Seasonal Norms Monday Through Wednesday.

Front moves offshore by Monday morning, and winds aloft shift to the WNW, which allows for cold air advection to settle in. Much cooler highs in the upper 60s to near 70 expected Monday and Tuesday. Canadian high pressure pushes into the Northeast by Wednesday, which knocks down temperatures a bit more, with highs only getting into the mid 60s that afternoon.

Lows Monday night dip down into the mid-to-upper 40s, becoming the lower 40s Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Temperatures finally start to recover to above seasonal norms by next Thursday and Friday, as high pressure moves offshore, and air mass modification begins.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR stratus sourced from southeasterly flow has mostly lifted, but some isolated stratus may pass over the coastal terminals over the next hour or so. Other than that, VFR will develop thereafter. A stray shower is possible through the late morning or early afternoon, primarily for our I-95 counties in SC. Showers will be light due to the poor depth of the cloud layer. Southerly flow continues tonight with some stratus possible late. Sea fog may develop as winds turn southerly tonight, but confidence is low.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, although the potential exists for fog/stratus early Saturday morning. Sea fog may become an issue prior to the cold frontal passage late Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Bermuda high offshore will maintain southeasterly flow today. Winds turn slightly more southerly tonight as high pressure weakens and inches eastward. Southeast swell energy will keep seas around 3-4 feet.

Saturday through Tuesday...Southerly to southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts likely Saturday and Saturday night, with seas lingering at 2-4 ft. A cold front starts to approach the coastal waters Sunday, causing an increase in the gradient winds by the afternoon. Gusts look to increase towards 20 kts, and seas increase to 3-5 ft. Winds start to veer more by Sunday evening, towards the southwest before the front hits, to westerly during the overnight hours, to northerly by Monday morning, and finally settling on northeasterly by Monday afternoon. Gradient decreases, with winds at 10-15 kts and seas at 2- 4 ft through Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.