textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory raised for the entire ILM CWA, 11am thru 8pm, Saturday.

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weekend heat indices to reach Heat Advisory thresholds along with increasing rain chances both days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weekend heat indices to reach Heat Advisory thresholds along with increasing rain chances both days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The upper and sfc ridging will slowly get depressed to the south during this weekend. This will allow a sfc cold front to drop to and stall across the FA today then eventually dissipate during Sun. The sea breeze will develop both afternoons and likely interact with the stalled/meandering front today and whats left of the front Sunday. Both days will feature pieces of energy within mid-level flow that will also influence convective development both days. Look for POPs to increase to generally mid to high chance both days, with likely thrown in there for some locations. By the end of this weekend, majority of the FA will have observe some rainfall but amounts will differ as 1 would expect with convection. Both days, especially today, will feature high temps similar to Fri with the exception of the immediate coast may break the 90 degree mark. Sfc dewpoints to run in the low to mid 70s and when combined with temps, heat indices are forecast to reach heat advisory thresholds, with a 105 to 108 degree range being forecast today. Both Sat/Sun afternoon/evening convection will help limit the duration of the heat adv across locales lucky enough to observe this thunderstorm activity.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A weakening front to drop to the forecast area and stall in the vicinity of the NC/SC border or meander in this region during this period. This combined with bits of energy/vorticity in the mid levels should yield more coverage of tstorm activity this afternoon thru mid-evening. The sea breeze will also interact further aiding convection occurrence. Could only go with prob30 groups to cover this activity but would not be surprised to see either tempo or prevailing groups come about once the activity commences. Thus looking atleast periodic MVFR from this convection, possibly reaching IFR with direct hits from any Tstorm. The sfc pg will relax in the vicinity of the frontal boundary with generally S-SW 5 to 10 kt south of the front and variable or NW-NE around 5 kt north of the front. Should observe a sea breeze resulting in southerly winds around 15 kt or less at MYR/CRE.

Extended Forecast...A secondary front early next week will bring a period of wet and unsettled conditions through midweek. Periodic MVFR/IFR convection during the afternoon and evening remain possible 2nd half of this weekend into early next week. Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored where heavy rain fell the day before.

MARINE

Today through Wednesday...Frontal boundary will stall and become oriented WSW to ENE, remaining north of the area coastal and offshore waters. The sfc pg will relax some today thru tonight with generally SSW-SW winds 10-15 kt, slightly hier nearshore this aftn/evening due to the sea breeze. The sfc front dissipates Sun and the sfc pg tightens as the next cold front descends towards the eastern Carolinas. Looks for SW winds to increase to near SCA thresholds Sun night, with 30 kt gusts offshore, then back down late Mon thru Wed. Seas will likely be dominated by the locally produced wind driven variety, ie. with periods 5 seconds or less, since any long period ESE-SSE swell at 8+ second periods will be small to negligible.

CLIMATE

Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which a few sites may reach record highs. The hottest day of the weekend will be today. The high temp records for each climate site this weekend are provided below.

Sat Sun Location Jun 13 Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 98 (2002) 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 101 (1920) 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 98 (1998) 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 102 (2022) 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.