textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs. Key messages remain similar to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, especially along the eastern portions of the forecast area.

- 2) Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Temperatures remain near seasonal norms much of this week, with more organized chances of showers and storms due by later this week.

Temperatures should remain rather even keeled this week. Highs each day hover somewhere in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Only a few isolated spots may hit heat indices in the triple digits at times, and thankfully, no advisory-level heat expected this week.

A more organized frontal system comes into play Thursday and Friday, which may stall out near the coast over the weekend. As a result, more appreciable rain and thunderstorm chances look to come to fruition. Precipitable water (PWAT) values hit 2 inches again. The drought continues across the area, and this may afford more opportunities to keep chipping away at it.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Outside showers and storms, mainly VFR conditions are expected. In showers and storms brief MVFR or IFR conditions are possible this afternoon. There is a threat for damaging wind gusts in severe storms. After storms abate, VFR conditions are expected but restrictions are possible overnight if fog/stratus develops. Attm, confidence is too low for inclusion in the forecast.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The areal coverage of storms is projected to increase at all terminals from the mid to latter parts of the week. This could lead to restrictions from time to time in/near any of the rounds of convection that develop.

MARINE

Through Friday...A weak front will move towards the coast this afternoon with S-SWly flow prevailing across the adjacent waters. This boundary may become nearly stationary along the coast with light/variable conditions near the front and generally light S-SWly to its east and south. Any convection has the potential to create locally higher wind/wave conditions. The old boundary will likely drift back to the north by mid-week with an increase in S-SWly flow that will persist through Friday. Overall, seas will be in the 2-4 ft range offshore, and 1-3 across the coastal waters. However, locally enhanced winds/seas are expected at times as a result of convection.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.