textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure will bring very cold temperatures through tonight. Temperatures will then warm up through midweek. Rain chances will increase on Thursday ahead of the next cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend with near to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A brief shot of cold arctic air will remain in place on Monday. Thankfully, winds will begin to weaken during the morning which should allow the for the on-time expiration of the cold weather advisory. Highs today in the upper 30s under clear skies. Winds fall to around 5-10 mph during the afternoon as high pressure settles into the eastern Carolinas. Weak southwest flow will warm temperatures aloft tonight, which should save us from another night in the teens. Despite lighter winds and better cooling conditions, lows should bottom out in the lower 20s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Warming will take place through midweek as high pressure shifts farther off the Southeast coast. Temps will be a good 10 to 15 degrees warmer than previous day, with highs near 50 and lows Tues night near or just below freezing, except warmer right along the coast. This trend will continue through midweek but may see more in the way of clouds across portions of the area on Wed as ridge shifts east. Overall, a dry midweek period with temps reaching up near 60 by Wed in continued warm SW flow.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Broad ridge aloft will produce a deep SW flow and a bit more energy rotating around into the Southeast. This will lead to increasing clouds and chc of rain on Thurs. A more potent shortwave begins to dig down pushing a cold front east. Increasing lift and moisture ahead of the front will produce showers late Thurs into early Fri. May even see enough instability to produce a thunderstorm or two. The cold front will pass on Friday with column drying out and CAA bringing temps down from the mid 60s on Thurs to the mid 50s by Sat. Looks like the weekend will remain dry with warming temps into Sunday as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas on Sat reaching offshore by Sun.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR. Northwest and north winds will remain breezy over the next 6-12 hours. High pressure settles overhead during the afternoon as winds fall to 5-10 knots.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions possible on Thursday morning and again on Thursday evening ahead of the next cold front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Gale force wind gusts will continue over the next several hours. The gradient will quickly relax this morning as high pressure settles into the Carolinas for the afternoon. Seas will remain elevated due to the stronger winds this morning. SEas around 5-7 feet this morning, becoming 3-5 feet by mid morning and 2-4 feet this afternoon.

Tuesday through Friday... High pressure will shift offshore and out into the Atlantic leaving the area waters in a light W-SW return flow through midweek until next cold front moves through on friday. Seas will be down to 3 ft or less Tues and Wed but will increase a bit with increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front on Thurs. until cold front approaches on Fri. Could see seas reach SCA thresholds Thurs night into Fri associated with tightened gradient flow ahead of cold front. Winds will shift around to the NW on Fri as high pressure builds in behind the front. Should see winds and seas subside to 2 to 4 ft into the weekend as winds veer around to the north.

CLIMATE

Record Low Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 17 / 2010 KLBT: 13 / 2010 KCRE: 17 / 1944 KFLO: 13 / 2010

Record Low High Temps for Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 KLBT: 37 / 1949 KCRE: 40 / 2010 KFLO: 35 / 1958

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-252-254- 256.