textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs. Coastal Flood Advisories are out for our SC/NC beaches and downtown Wilmington for the high tide this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

-1)Minor drought relief possible today.

-2)Rain chances decrease by late Tuesday and heat slowly returns into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor drought relief possible today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Weak cyclonic mid level flow lingers to our west which will enhance shower and storm coverage again this afternoon and evening. Coverage may be less for SE NC, especially into the evening, as drier air starts to push in from the north and the mid level low is pushed further away due to an encroaching trough from the north that doesn't clear our area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances decrease by late Tuesday and heat slowly returns into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... From Wednesday through Friday a mid level ridge pokes back into the area from the NW. This will lead to a warmup but not like last week where the ridge and max heat was closer to being overhead. At this point it looks like we will get back into the Heat Advisory realm rather than Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Unfortunately the capping effect of the ridging will keep rain chances to minimal/none. The ridge will start to break down into the weekend with moisture slowly returning, but no major disturbances aloft looks like it will be a return to pop-up showers/storms which may only provide spotty relief from the heat, too low confidence to predict at this time.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR to start off the 12Z TAF period with some pockets of IFR/MVFR cigs. Expect these to lift up to VFR/MVFR through the day, with rain chances lower today than yesterday so handled with PROB30 groups. Moderate confidence in IFR/LIFR over the inland terminals late tonight as winds go calm.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wed through Sat.

MARINE

Tuesday through Saturday... Light NE winds with a turn to SW flow late Wednesday, speeds enhanced to near 15 kts each afternoon with the sea breeze. Winds speeds will increase Saturday as a Piedmont Trough develops inland enhancing the PG. Seas will be largely 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.