textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 6:30 AM EST. Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures expected into mid next week which will lead to periods of frost/freeze conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures expected into mid next week which will lead to periods of frost/freeze conditions.

Chilly high pressure to prevail into mid next week bringing more rain-free conditions followed by a warmup toward late next week, although still remaining on the dry side.

The latest forecast has marginal conditions for frost this morning but we maintained the Frost Advisory for most inland areas, especially closer to I-95.

Much better radiational cooling is expected tonight which will lead to freezing temperatures down into the upper 20s in spots away from the coastal areas. However, frost is likely even closer to the coast so a Frost Advisory will likely be needed for areas outside of the Freeze Warning.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions for the 12Z TAF period. NW winds will be a bit elevated at times, especially this afternoon, but gusts should stay mostly around 15 kt or less. Gusts come down by 23Z this evening. Light NW breeze at around 5 kts overnight tonight.

Extended Outlook...High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Winds out of the northwest through the weekend will veer to north-northeast early next week as high pressure settles over the East Coast. Winds peak tonight as an upper trough moves across, with speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts near 60nm offshore. Winds generally 15 kts or less thereafter until Tuesday, when winds increase again to 15-20 kts through late week. Seas 2-3 ft across the 0-20nm waters through midweek, with brief period of 1-2 ft seas Sunday. For the 20-60nm waters, wave heights 3- 5 ft tonight will lower to 2-4 ft through early Tuesday before building again into Wednesday. Seas primarily wind wave driven. Forecast remains dry, outside of possible nocturnal convection in the outer coastal waters midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ087. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ087-096-099- 105-109. SC...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039. Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Sunday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None.