textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast have been made. The main focus will be the arctic air moving in Thursday and beyond.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

2) A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and again Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures to the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Rain Chances Return on Wednesday

A lifting shortwave will move through the area on Wednesday in advance of a cold front on Thursday. Moisture above 700 mb is more than sufficient for precip, but dry air in the low levels will likely impact rain rates and QPF. Light rain will likely be focused along the coast where isentropic lift is maximized. Unlikely to see more than a few hundreths of rainfall through 12Z Thursday. Evaporative cooling should keep temperatures in the mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A pair of strong arctic cold fronts moving through Thursday morning and again Saturday night will bring well below normal temperatures to the area.

No measurable precipitation is expected through the period. Cold arctic air will move in behind the first of basically two fronts Thursday and again this weekend. The coldest lows will occur Friday and again Sunday mornings when upper teens to lower 20s are expected. Apparent temperatures will be well into the teens.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in VFR. LLWS is possible tonight as a weak southerly low level jet develops overhead. This is likely to remain below 20- 25 knots of shear, but could cause some trouble for smaller aircraft. Clouds increase late in the period ahead of an approaching shortwave, trending toward MVFR late Wednesday afternoon or Wednesday evening.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions possible on Wednesday evening with light rain across portions of the area, best chance along the coast. VFR returns Thursday.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... Winds turn southwesterly this afternoon and this evening, increasing overnight. West to southwest winds on Wednesday will precede a shortwave moving northeastward through the afternoon. With clouds increasing late tonight and early Wednesday, precipitation over the nearshore waters could begin as early as mid morning.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Strong small craft advisory conditions are expected Thursday and again this weekend via strong cold air advection behind a couple of arctic cold fronts. With the offshore flow being primarily offshore significant seas will be somewhat limited considering the wind speeds...mainly 2-4 feet. Some isolated five footers are always fair game outer waters with the strongest of gusts.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.