textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, coastal breezes, and near to below normal temperatures through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, coastal breezes, and near to below normal temperatures through mid next week.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather for the next week leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast though starting this weekend as low-level moisture gets pulled in from the Atlantic, especially around Cape Fear.

Low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient between it and high pressure building from the north. As a result, northeasterly winds will pick up this weekend, especially near the coast where gusts to around 35 mph are expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide cycle, initially along the SE NC coast and lower Cape Fear River and then spreading southward along the NE SC coast.

High Surf: Elevated seas reaching to around 10 ft within 20 nm of shore could lead to 6+ ft breaking waves on the beaches along with some beach erosion, especially the E-facing beaches in New Hanover and Georgetown Counties.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence for VFR. Light and var winds to pick up out of the N to NE once mixing ensues.

06Z Sat thru Tue: VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25 knots at times this weekend. Low chances for MVFR/IFR cigs starting late tonight, mainly near the coast, as low-level moisture convergence increases.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...High pressure to the north will prevail through the period. Meanwhile, low pressure near The Bahamas will slowly strengthen leading to increasing NE winds and building seas locally. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected starting tonight with gusts near gale-force at times. As such, we have raised a Gale Watch for the offshore waters starting tonight and running through Monday. Conditions should then improve a bit into Tue, but still likely to see Small Craft Advisory conditions for at least 6+ ft seas.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256. Gale Watch from this evening through Monday evening for AMZ280- 284.