textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

As of 3 AM EDT... Marine discussion updated for potential short term NC Waters SCA late Tue or Tue night. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for the Lower Cape Fear River for this evening's high tide. Heat Indices may reach 105+ Tue afternoon which will likely require Heat Advisories for portions of the ILM CWA. Threat of severe thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon and night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend kicks in today, peaking during Tuesday.

2) The next cold front pushes across late Tuesday night, bringing better organized convection. Some storms could be strong to severe from late Tuesday afternoon into the pre-dawn Wednesday hours.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming trend kicks in today, peaking during Tuesday.

Guidance is pointing towards a decent warmup today thru Tue, ahead of an approaching cold front. Most locations will reach the lower 90s for todays highs except the immediate coast holding in the upper 80s. Forcing from the sea breeze or an embedded mid-level s/w trof could produce isolated to widely scattered aftn/evening convection which may temporarily alleviate the heat. Enough dry air aloft will help limit the convection today which should partially mix down as lower dewpoints. For Tuesday guidance pushes max temps to the mid to possibly upper 90s across the FA. Lower dewpoints from mixing aloft will not be as prevalent like Mon and as a result, look for Heat Indices to likely breach 105+ across portions of the FA, especially at the coast. Would expect Heat Advisories will likely be advertised as we move closer to Tue. The sfc pg tightens Tue and produces breezy SW-W winds across the FA by afternoon thru Tue night, which is much better than having a stagnant air mass when heat is involved.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The next cold front pushes across late Tuesday night, bringing better organized convection. Some storms could be strong to severe from late Tuesday afternoon into the pre- dawn Wednesday hours.

Next organized rain and storm chances come in late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning with the next cold frontal passage. This front misses out on the majority of the diurnal heating, but it appears the extra moisture and buoyancy that gets injected in the atmosphere will provide energy for potentially strong to severe tstorms. Veering low level winds combined with an embedded mid to upper level disturbance will also aid in a better organized structure to the thunderstorm activity. These potentials point toward strong and damaging wind gusts as the biggest concern here. In addition, cloud to ground lightning will definitely be an additional concern. Specifics on the timing and intensity will become more apparent as near/short term high resolution models become more engaged with it.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Patchy fog inland has stayed just west and south of the terminals this morning. While some brief restriction is possible after sunrise, conditions should improve to VFR. Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, mainly east of I-95. Coastal terminals could see a brief restriction mid to late afternoon. Debris clouds after sunset should yield VFR conditions at all terminals. Variable winds this morning should give way to a light afternoon sea breeze.

Extended Forecast... Chance of fog/stratus inland Tuesday morning. Storms associated with a cold front will bring periodic restrictions late Tuesday and Tuesday night. VFR should dominate thereafter through Friday.

MARINE

Synoptically relaxed sfc pg thru tonight will yield SE-S winds generally around 5 kt. Exception will be near shore where the mesoscale sea breeze circulation will increase windspeeds to 10 to possibly 15 kt this aftn into this evening. Few storms may affect the waters this aftn/evening as they move off the mainland associated with an embedded 5H s/w trof. For Tue, the sfc pg will tighten by midday and persist into early Wed as a decent cold front, for this time of year, drops to the area waters Tue night and south of the waters Wed thru Fri b4 slowly snaking back northward to the waters by the weekend. Nevertheless, the ILM NC Waters will have the potential for SCA conditions late Tue aftn thru early Wed from mainly gusty SW-W winds with a few 6 foot seas across the outer waters. The adjacent offshore waters may occasionally see 30-35 kt gusts with 6 to possibly few 7 footers possible. The other concern for all waters will be the strong to possibly severe thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Tue aftn and thru the night. By Wed aftn thru Fri, the sfc pg will relax forcing winds to diminish to 10 kt or less. Sfc pressure pattern becomes diffuse toward the end of the week resulting in winds variable in direction. However, will identify a predominate direction in lieu of going VRBL.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.