textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Collection of surf hazards have been issued to cover the rough and dangerous surf expected on Tuesday. See the SRF, CFW, and Key Message 2.

Minor coastal flooding is possible with this evening's high tide. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington. Confidence is lower that coastal flooding will occur at area beaches due to weakening NE winds and associated wind wave energy. This will be worth watching for another guidance cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

2) Rough surf is expected across many area beaches on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Sfc high pressure ridging in from the north through mid week will allow for continued cooler temps than we've seen as of late, with PoPs no higher than around 20% and confined to far SE areas/offshore. Temps warm a bit into Thursday as the high pushes offshore with some guidance supporting 20-30% PoPs inland, but the next good rain chances (50-60% PoPs) don't arrive until Friday into the weekend as better shortwave energy aloft moves through the area. By Friday, heat indices are likely to return to around 100 degrees once again with upr-level ridging just off the SE coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rough surf is expected across many area beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... ENE winds and elevated astronomical tides will continue to produce rough surf at area beaches today. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for the east- facing beaches of Pender, New Hanover, and Georgetown County. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect for Horry County beaches. A strong longshore current was observed at all area beaches yesterday and is expected to continue. This strong longshore current kept rip currents closer to the shoreline. However, strong longshore currents and strong nearshore rip currents will produce rough and dangerous surf.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions overnight. VFR continues today with gusty onshore winds by the afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning in convection Friday into the weekend.

MARINE

Seas are gradually improving early this morning, but will continue to pose a threat to small craft through sunrise. As the gradient weakens, sub-SCA conditions will return through the remainder of the week. Southerly flow returns late this week as surface high pressure drifts offshore.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.