textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat indices have been lowered slightly today, though they remain near 105F for counties where a Heat Advisory remains in effect. Have added slight chance pops for this afternoon and evening for isolated convection potential.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions through end of the week.

2) Minor coastal flooding forecasted along area beaches during evening high tide today and Thursday, as well as along Lower Cape Fear River.

3) Weak cold front early Saturday with brief improvement to the heat for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions through end of the week.

Mid-level ridge over the Southeast will aid in above normal temperatures through (at least) Friday, with high temps in the mid 90s today increasing to upper 90s Thursday and Friday. Triple digit highs possible Friday. Combined with summertime humidity, we are expected to have multiple days of heat products. There is a chance heat indices could reach warning criteria of 110F Thursday and Friday, mainly coastal counties where HeatRisk is forecasted to be extreme.

Isolated to widely scattered storms may develop later this afternoon into this evening, with adequate instability interacting with pinned sea breeze, Piedmont trough, and another upper level impulse riding over top the Southeast ridge. Have kept pops limited to slight chance range (15-20%) today and this evening with dry air aloft aiding to limit development/coverage.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding forecasted along area beaches during evening high tide today and Thursday, as well as along Lower Cape Fear River.

New moon today will aid in elevated tide levels. Latest total water forecast has water levels reaching minor flood stage along area beaches both with this evening's high tide and tomorrow evening. The Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington is also expected to reach minor flood levels the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Weak cold front early Saturday with brief improvement to the heat for the weekend.

A weak cold frontal passage late Friday into early Saturday may bring scattered storms to the area. Lingering moisture behind the front will maintain chance pops during the day Saturday. While the front itself will be relatively weak this far south with the stronger forcing well to the northeast, it should weaken the ridge enough to lower temps for the weekend. Current forecast maintains slightly above normal temps through Sunday, before warming trend returns for early next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR with mostly clear skies. Isolated convection may develop late this afternoon into evening hours, particularly near the coast. Light winds out of the WNW for 6z TAF period, outside of southerly 10kt winds at CRE and MYR with pinned sea breeze.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. Scattered thunderstorms possible late Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday with Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally around 10-15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts for the 20-60nm waters Friday. A weak cold front is forecasted to drop south across the area late Friday into early Saturday, with winds briefly turning north-northeasterly behind the front. Seas around 2 ft out to 20nm and 2-3 ft out to 60nm today through Sunday, outside of slight increase in seas late Friday ahead of the front. SSW wind wave will be dominant feature, with weak ESE swell mixed in. Best chance of thunderstorms over the waters will be late Friday into Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.