textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat to continue for several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With a stagnant pattern in place conditions are not expected to change much. As such heat headlines will be needed through at least Friday. As with the last few days the main nuance will be tracking where mixing allows lower dewpoints to mix down, curbing the apparent temps/heat index values to be marginally below advisory thresholds. Guidance is also showing that the convergence along the stalled frontal boundary (more just a trough, really) and the sea breeze could yield isolated storm coverage this afternoon. Gut feeling is that this will hold true but to the same extent as yesterday where only a tiny percentage of the CWA sees any precip given the continued dry air in the mid and sub- cloud levels. Combine this low coverage with slow and erratic storm motion making for low confidence in the details regarding who, if anyone sees rain today, but the big picture remains rain-free and hot.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR exists through this evening. Guidance tools suggest isolated showers and storms today, keeping PROB30s in the TAFs with slightly better chances at coastal terminals given a stalled front near the coast. MVFR to IFR restrictions in heavy rain are possible if a terminal is impacted directly. Otherwise, expect winds to go light or calm for much of tonight, bringing a low to moderate risk for MVFR mist formation late in the night. Should a terminal experience rain today, the risk for mist late in the night should increase.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Rain chances increase on Friday with afternoon convection possible through the weekend.

MARINE

A front is still stalled just inland making for light and variable winds today. Swell energy is present and out of the SE but weak and wind waves obviously diminutive so dominant wave heights 2 to occasionally 3 ft. Late in the week/over the weekend there may be a slight increase in southerly flow but forecast confidence is low as models now show the increased gradient remaining outside of the 20 nm zones. The only minor uptick in winds and seas should be confined to the 20-60 nm zones.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.