textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather is expected through the weekend and through most of next week as a series of high pressure systems and dry cold fronts move across the Carolinas. Above normal temperatures will develop beginning Tuesday and should continue beyond Christmas Day.

UPDATE

Adjusted temps down a bit. With clear skies and calm winds across most of the area, temps dropped out overnight. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure will migrate across the Carolinas today reaching just off the coast by tonight. That will help veer winds around from the N overnight to the NE by this afternoon and westerly by tonight but remaining very light. Overall, quiet weather with the day starting out quite cool, especially in wind sheltered spots. This will lead to temps rebounding to near or slightly above normal, mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

A shortwave moving eastward across southern Quebec Sunday will support surface low pressure ahead of it, and a southward- diving cold front that should move through the eastern Carolinas during the day. Deep westerly flow in advance of the front means there should be few clouds and essentially zero chance of rain with this system.

Cold advection will be delayed until Sunday night when Canadian high pressure over the Ohio Valley begins to spill southeastward and across the Carolinas. 12-hour pressure rises of 8-10 mb are possible as 850 mb temps slide toward +2 to +4C by 12z Monday. The center of the high should settle across eastern NC and Virginia Monday afternoon before pushing offshore Monday night.

NBM temperatures look reasonable through the period, although I did enhance radiational cooling over typical cold spots Monday night as winds should become rather light.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A broad but low-amplitude upper ridge extending northward from the Gulf Coast will cover the southeastern third of the nation most of next week. This should lead to several days of above normal temperatures and continued dry weather.

A shortwave moving through the Great Lakes on Tuesday and New England Tuesday night should push a backdoor cold front southward into the Carolinas early Wednesday. The GFS and Canadian are more aggressive with this front than the ECMWF, but all three models show the boundary to our south on Christmas Eve, then returning north again by Christmas Day. 850 mb temps soaring toward +11C on Christmas Day may support inland high temps near 70 degrees, likely continuing through Thursday (Dec 26) and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR. Winds will be mainly light and variable as they veer around from N early this morning to NE by this aftn and eventually shifting to westerly tonight and NW by morning. Clear skies.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the extended period.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure will migrate across the Carolinas reaching off the coast by tonight. This will help winds veer around and diminish from N this morning to NE by this afternoon and W by tonight, dropping from 10 to 15 kts to 10 kts or less by this aftn. Seas will subside to 3 ft or less by this afternoon.

Sunday through Wednesday...Light northwesterly winds Sunday will increase substantially behind a cold front Sunday night as Canadian high pressure builds southeast toward the Carolinas. Winds 10 kt or less should increase to northerly 20-25 kt with gusts potentially approaching 30 kt after midnight Sunday night into early Monday morning. This will likely necessitate the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory.

The center of the high should reach North Carolina and Virginia Monday morning, veering wind directions northeasterly. Wind speeds should diminish Monday afternoon and especially Monday night as the high scoots offshore. Moderate southwest winds behind the departing high on Tuesday should veer northerly on Wednesday as another dry cold front pushes through the area.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.