textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated, although there are no significant changes to the overall forecast messaging. Issued a Dense Fog Advisory for this morning for all of SE NC and NE SC. Looking ahead...still some uncertainty regarding rain amounts this weekend into early next week as well as the extent of hazardous marine conditions starting Mon night.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)High pressure will bring above normal temps and mainly dry weather through early Saturday with above normal rain chances later Saturday into early Monday as a front wavers in the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring above normal temps and mainly dry weather through early Saturday with above normal rain chances later Saturday into early Monday as a front wavers in the area.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure will continue into early Sat keeping a warming trend through Fri night. Highs around 90 are likely inland today with humidity slowly continuing to increase. Rain chances will be on the increase later Saturday as high pressure weakens, a cold front approaches and moisture/upper forcing increase. Rain chances should remain above normal through early Mon as the front slows down and lingers over or near the area. Trends favor a drier Monday, especially for northern/western areas, so confidence in the latest forecast rain chances is low. At least there is a decent chance for beneficial rainfall over an inch, which would be very welcome considering the ongoing drought in most areas. Not expecting any risk for severe storms, although locally heavy rainfall could produce minor flooding.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in restrictions down to LIFR/VLIFR at times due to patchy dense fog and associated low clouds thru about 13-14Z. VFR conditions will then prevail thereafter with only a low chance for fog/low clouds returning late tonight.

06Z Sat thru Tue: Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture through the end of the week. Moderate to high risk for showers (and maybe a few thunderstorms Sat) mainly starting Sat aftn thru early Mon as a front stalls over or near the area. Although most of the rain should end later Mon, low clouds could linger a bit longer until drier air works in. VFR is likely Tue along with a decent NE breeze, especially near the coast.

MARINE

Rather benign marine conditions expected until Monday when high pressure building in from the north shoves a wavering frontal boundary over the area to the south leading to an increasing pressure gradient and cold advection. Small Craft Advisory conditions are a pretty good bet starting Mon night and/or early Tue with gales also a possibility, although confidence is low regarding the latest wind/wave forecast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.