textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 AM EST. Updated 12Z TAF discussion found below. Rest of the previous forecast discussion still applies.

Wind forecast has increased Wednesday night, as trends have come in a bit stronger than expected with a deepening trough. This has prompted a Small Craft Advisory to go into effect by 7 PM EST this evening.

A slight chance of snow has been added to the forecast late Saturday night into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain Chances Return Today.

2) Small Craft Advisory in effect.

3) Arctic air will bring low temperatures in the teens and lower 20s Thursday night. Wind chills could reach 15 degrees.

4) Gulf moisture overrunning a second arctic cold front could bring a chance of snow late Saturday night into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain Chances Return Today.

A shortwave over the Midwest will deepen considerably today, with the axis reaching the Mid-South and ArkLaTex region by late this afternoon. Southwesterly flow will increase, bringing more moisture into the atmosphere. Embedded within this flow are some stout jet dynamics, carrying some of the strongest shear values we've seen in months. However, an inversion will keep strong winds out of play. Shear vorticity will tap into the moisture and lead to some light rain by early this afternoon. Plenty of moisture above 700 mb, but there's still considerable dry air in the lower levels, so this isn't a washout setup by any means. Rainfall amounts generally well less than a tenth of inch.

Light rain may start first along the coast, where isentropic lift is maximized. This will transition to a very broken, light surge from west to east, traveling with the low-to-mid-level jet.

Highs today in the low-to-mid 50s inland, upper 50s at the coast. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small Craft Advisory in Effect.

The aforementioned jet dynamics over the coastal waters will allow winds and seas to reach advisory criteria a bit faster than initially thought. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 7 PM EST this evening, continuing until 1 AM EST Friday.

See the Marine section below for more detail.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Arctic air will bring low temperatures in the teens and lower 20s Thursday night. Wind chills could reach 15 degrees.

An arctic cold front should push off the coast early Thursday morning. 850 mb temps will plunge from -2C Thursday morning to around -10C Thursday night which is colder than the 10th percentile climo values at MHX for mid January. Breezy winds during the day should diminish Thursday night as the center of the high approaches from the west. Lighter winds should allow a radiational inversion to develop and inland temperatures could fall into the upper teens with lower 20s expected near the coast.

Depending on exactly how quickly winds diminish, it's possible the combination of cold temperatures and wind could drop wind chill values down to the 15 degree threshold needed for a Cold Weather Advisory. The current set of forecast grids shows discontinuous zones where this is most likely to occur: inland mainly due to air temperature, and near the coast mainly due to wind chill. We'll continue to monitor trends as Thursday night gets closer in time.

This should be the second coldest arctic outbreak of the winter so far behind the December 15, 2025 event.

Record lows for Friday morning January 16 Wilmington.......10 degrees in 1994 N. Myrtle Beach..18 degrees in 1948 Florence.........12 degrees in 1994 Lumberton........10 degrees in 1994, 1972, and 1912.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Gulf moisture overrunning a second arctic cold front could bring a chance of snow late Saturday night into Sunday.

A second arctic cold front is expected to push off the coast Saturday night. A shortwave diving southeastward across the Ozarks Saturday should reach the southern Appalachians Sunday. Enhanced southwest flow developing out ahead of the approaching trough may advect Gulf moisture over top of the 5000 foot deep arctic airmass in place at the surface, potentially leading to some wintry precipitation across the area.

There have been a number of recent operational model runs from the GFS and ECMWF that show this potential unfolding late Saturday night and lasting through the day Sunday, however within the model ensemble space there is tremendous variability in the depth and location of Gulf moisture that gets introduced above the arctic air. For this reason our forecast PoPs are only being increased to 20 to 30 percent, highest along the coast.

The last widespread measurable snow across our area was January 21- 22, 2025. Additional flurries and snow showers occurred on November 10, 2025.

High temperature forecasts on Sunday are highly dependent on how much, if any, clouds and precipitation are present and could realistically range from freezing to nearly 50 degrees. Confidence in quite low at this stage in how this scenario will unfold. Sunday night's lows should fall into the lower to middle 20s.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR to open the 12Z TAF period, lasting through much of the day. Light southwesterly winds early this morning will increase towards 8-10 kts by around 15Z. Biggest change is the light rain on the way ahead of the next frontal system. Hard to pinpoint the exact timing of the rain, if it actually hits any terminal at all. Rain will be spotty, and may not actually lead to any flight restrictions at all, perhaps brief MVFR visibilities at worst. Broad-brushed this idea with PROB30 groups at each terminal, generally from 15-23Z today. A lull in the activity kicks in after sunset, but that's also when lower ceilings start creeping in from the west as the front rolls through. KFLO and KLBT look to go down towards MVFR by 05-08Z tonight, but go back to VFR towards the end of the period. KILM, KCRE, and KMYR may go down to MVFR by 08-09Z, possibly lasting right up towards the end of the period.

Extended Forecast...MVFR ceilings at the coast may continue after daybreak Thursday. VFR returns later that morning, sticking around through at least Saturday night. Low confidence in flight restrictions on Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts will reign throughout most of the day. Seas at 1-2 ft gradually increase up to 2-3 ft. By this evening, gradient winds increase ahead of a cold front, which will move through during the overnight hours. Winds and seas both escalate a bit faster than expected, thanks to a deepening trough aloft. The LLJ dropping into the lower levels of the atmosphere will allow for winds and seas to reach Small Craft Advisory thresholds, kicking off by 7 PM EST this evening. Winds could potentially gust up to 30 kts at times, but should stay well below gale force. Late tonight, seas should be near 3-4 ft at the coast, and 5-6 ft out 20 nm from shore.

Thursday through Sunday Night...Blustery northwest winds behind Wednesday night's cold front will probably be close to Small Craft Advisory criteria during the day Thursday. A surge of stronger winds is shown in recent model guidance to develop at sunset. Northwest winds 20-25 knots could last through midnight before diminishing in speed Friday morning.

This is a fast-moving weather pattern and the Canadian high will move eastward across South Georgia and northern Florida during the day Friday. Southwest winds will quickly increase Friday night as the high shifts offshore and a second arctic cold front approaches from the west. This boundary should push off the Carolina coastline Saturday evening followed by a shift to northwest winds lasting through Sunday night. Also of note: recent models are showing a slug of Gulf moisture overrunning the cold air late Saturday night into Sunday which could result in some rain or snow across the beaches and coastal waters. This potential will be watched closely in the days ahead.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.