textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated for 18Z aviation.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Expect a few periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Expect a few periods of showers and isolated thunderstorms Monday through Tuesday.

Sunday night high pressure overhead will start to slip offshore. A cold front will be stalled south of the area with low pressure expected to develop along it before tracking into our area Monday. Another cold front will approach from the north through Monday before moving through overnight into Tuesday. These combined systems should lead to increased rain chances overnight into Monday from SW to NE. Highest rainfall chances will start out in NE SC early Monday with the low, transitioning to inland in the evening with the frontal passage. Where and when these features impact the area will have big impacts on rainfall totals across the area, but for now the forecast is for 0.5-1" across the area over the next several days.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Ongoing convection over southeast NC looks to be on the way toward dissipation based on radar trends and short term guidance. Have included tempo or prob groups at coastal terminals for one to three hours, otherwise expecting mainly vfr conditions for the valid taf period. Main story will be a wind shift to the NE to E in the 00Z to 06Z time frame with speeds expected to be invof 10 KT with higher gusts.

Extended Forecast...There is a moderate potential for MVFR/IFR conditions to develop in scattered afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Within 20 NM, SW to W winds invof 10 KT will shift to the NE to E tonight and increase to 20 to 25 KT with higher gusts. Winds will diminish to 15 to 20 KT Sunday afternoon. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will peak at 3 to 6 FT Sunday.

From 20 to 60 NM out, SW to W winds invof 10 KT will shift to the NE to E tonight and increase to 20 to 25 KT with higher gusts. Winds will diminish to 15 to 20 KT Sunday afternoon. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will peak at 4 to 7 FT Sunday.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions to start out with S/SE flow 10-15 kts before another cold front pushes through from the north Monday night into Tuesday. This NE surge could bring Small Craft Advisory conditions Tuesday through Thursday due to elevated NE winds and seas. Additionally there is a small chance for Gale Force gusts 20-60nmi out.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.