textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A backdoor cold front will sink south of the region tonight into Thursday. Once it lifts to the north on Friday a significant warming trend could bring record highs. A strong but moisture deprived cold front Sunday will bring temperatures back to January values Monday and Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Flow aloft remains flat, blocking cold air and keeping surface features moving quickly west to east. Stacked low moving across the Northeast today drags a weak front into the area tonight. Technically it is a cold front, but not much cold air with it. Ahead of the front, warm advection continues with the forecast area between the offshore high and the aforementioned stacked low. Highs will end up 15-20 degrees above normal in many areas as warm advection combines with mid-level subsidence. Lack of moisture and forcing will keep the front's arrival dry. Front sags south overnight as high pressure passes north of the area. Brief period of northerly flow tonight will cool lows a bit for Thu morning, although lows still end up 10 degrees or more above normal.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Not much to discuss this period other than the warmth due to ridging both at the surface and aloft. Guidance is tightly clustered in showing highs close to 70 away from the water. The marine layer of cooler temperatures slightly increased by the onshore flow brought about by the weak front to our south.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Warm front will be north of the area Friday and Saturday allowing for the warmth to peak, Saturday slightly warmer than Friday with highs approaching 80 (one only has to get to the NBM 75th percentiles before some 82s and 83s show up). Record highs could be in jeopardy. Models are starting to congeal on a frontal passage timing Sunday. Should it be early in the day then highs will be impossible to forecast this far out as they will occur early and be followed by falling afternoon temperatures. Moisture is quite limited despite the strength of the boundary and blended guidance is supportive of POPs in the 30-50 range, highest west. The impressive CAA will bring a light freeze Sunday night and highs Monday that struggle to 50 followed by a recovery to seasonably cool January temperatures Tuesday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Boundary layer winds tonight will prevent fog from being much of a concern. Isolated, brief pockets of MVFR fog are possible, but given winds 5-10 kt for much of the night seem unlikely. Ceilings flirting with MVFR, especially at NC terminals, will be a concern 09Z-15Z as cloud developing to the northwest expands southeast. Mixed signals in the guidance, but starting to see hints of this deck developing and this area of enhanced boundary layer moisture will shift south and east during the next 6-8 hours. Sites in SC are also likely to see some affect from this deck, but ceilings will be a bit higher 4k- 6k, so less significant. Other than the brief potential for MVFR at NC sites this morning all sites will remain VFR through the valid TAF period. Generally westerly winds 5-10 kt with the exception of light easterly winds at CRE/MYR late afternoon as the sea breeze struggles to push inland.

Extended Outlook...VFR outside of potential for brief morning restrictions from fog/ceilings during the weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight...

High pressure well offshore and low pressure well to the north will maintain southwest flow across the waters today. Gradient is weaker compared to yesterday and speeds will be around 10 kt for much of the day, dropping under 10 kt late. Weak cold front moves in from the north this evening with northerly flow developing around midnight. Lack of cold air or any real gradient will keep northerly flow under 10 kt through daybreak. Seas 3-4 ft this morning drop to 2-3 ft by midday and by this evening will have fallen to 2 ft or less. Seas will be a mix of a dominant southerly wind wave and an easterly swell with the wind wave gradually weakening.

Thursday through Sunday... The lightest winds and smallest seas will be at the start of the period. A warm front lazily lifting north across the region will turn NE wind clockwise with time as high pressure north of the area progresses eastward. Wind waves and E swell both minimal. A southerly flow becomes established by Friday but the warm sector gradient and resulting wind field will be slow to increase. The SW flow will increase by only about a category Saturday less due to any change in the offshore high but more due to the approach of a strong cold front from the west. A further increase along with a sharp veer Sunday with FROPA. Winds remain sub- advisory leading up to FROPA and any 6 ft seas will remain well outside of the 20 nm forecast zones.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.