textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Heat index values near 100 today.

2) A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat index values near 100 today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Although the core of the large mid level ridge will be west of the area low level thermal trough and 850mb temps just shy of 20C will foster highs in the mid 90s away from the coast. Granted, this oceanic influence will be very localized by a very pinned seabreeze. Dewpoints in the ballpark of 70 will yield heat index values close to 100. A few storms are possible inland initially but with storm motion towards the coast low POPs are warranted area-wide with storms a bit delayed with dry air both aloft as well as in the sub-cloud layer. The latter could bring gusty winds with a few storms but the MRGL risk currently remains just to our west especially as storms will wane in both coverage and intensity as they approach the coast late evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...2) A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...The mid week pattern will be changing albeit slowly. The mid level ridge to our west will retrograde slightly and amplify considerably. The downstream trough strengthens over the Northeast. Guidance looks surprisingly wet as the lead front arrives as the forecast surge in PW to 1.75" seems aggressive given the complete lack of a southerly wind component of over 10 kt anywhere in forecast soundings. The probable outcome is that near-likely POPs are still OK but that future QPF forecasts will be pulled back in future forecasts.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR through the period. Any fog will be relegated to ground fog due to steep hydrolapse rates. Thunderstorm coverage will be low on Friday and tend to favor inland locales where there will be weak mid level support. Should afternoon storms occur close to a given terminal then the chance for Friday night fog goes up but this is of low confidence.

Extended Outlook...There is a moderate chance of visibility or ceiling restrictions Saturday due to scattered thunderstorms, reducing to a low chance on Sunday. Early morning ground fog may be possible Saturday morning through Monday morning.

MARINE

Light SW flow will become established today ahead of a cold front that will push through late tonight, turning the flow almost 180 degrees. Winds speeds remain so light through the veer that seas won't build and the steepening of wave faces will be insignificant. There is not much in the way of swell energy through the forecast period so seas only build to 2-3 ft as the latter days of the forecast period as weak winds maintain an onshore component.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.