textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track for the main forecast package. Rain chances for this afternoon were brought down a bit along the northern periphery of the forecast area. Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Inland Today.

- 2) Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible by the Weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible by the Weekend.

Dry forecast in store for the rest of the work week, with only modest rain chances in store for the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday, becoming the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast by Thursday.

Friday into the weekend, significant heat starts creeping in, as ridging in the Atlantic pushes back into the South. Triple digit heat indices return Friday, and appear to get into Heat Advisory territory throughout the weekend. Limit time outdoors and drink plenty of water!

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Predominantly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. An upper level disturbance ahead of a frontal system may bring some showers and storms to KILM, KFLO, and KLBT this afternoon. Most of the activity should be to the north and east of the area, but used PROB30 groups to maintain the chance. Outside of convection, these same areas may experience brief MVFR ceilings as the disturbance moves through. Stout gusts out of the SW up to 25 kts for most of the daytime hours, calming by sunset. Winds start to veer towards the NW towards the end of the period, as the surface front moves through.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR through Saturday. The exceptions would include some potential for fog Thursday and Friday mornings, and some slightly better convection chances Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM EDT to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Gradient winds out of the southwest will tighten up to a fresh breeze this afternoon, with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times. Seas will linger around 4-6 ft out 60 nm. Cold front moves through the waters late tonight, allowing the winds to veer to the NNW and improve to a moderate breeze. Seas also improve to 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...Moderate breeze out of the northeast will veer to the east by Wednesday evening, improving to a gentle breeze, with seas at 2-3 ft. Winds will gradually veer to the SSW by Friday, with conditions remaining about the same. Gradient winds quickly pick up Friday night through Saturday, ramping up to a fresh breeze once again, with seas increasing to 2-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.