textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Most sections have been updated, although no significant changes to the previous forecast messaging have been made. Another Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for minor coastal flooding during today's daytime high tide.

12z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast and lower Cape Fear River during the daytime high tide today, with the potential for another round on Wednesday, especially along the lower Cape Fear River. - 2) Warming trend kicks off Tuesday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Another round of minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast and lower Cape Fear River during the daytime high tide today, with the potential for another round on Wednesday, especially along the lower Cape Fear River.

Although positive tidal departures are diminishing, high astronomical tides will continue to lead to more minor coastal flooding along the coast and lower Cape Fear River during today's daytime high tide. There is low confidence for additional tidal flooding along the coast after today, although confidence is moderate to high for more tidal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend kicks off Tuesday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return by this weekend.

500 mb heights start picking up Tuesday, with ridging starting to poke up from the Gulf. This kicks off the start of above normal temperatures that appear to last Tuesday through Saturday. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s looks like a slam dunk for most. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day of the week, with the heat index climbing up towards 95 in some spots (in October, mind you).

Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near the PNW all the way to New England helps to suppress the ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time. These rain chances appear to get a bit more bullish by Sunday and Monday, as part of the broad trough in the upper Midwest amplifies and sweeps through the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still much to debate about the timing and organization of this system, along with what kind of rainfall amounts to expect.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR during the day with near-calm winds across the area, except for weak 5-10 kt SSE sea breeze at coastal terminals this afternoon. Calm winds and clear skies tonight may lead to patchy fog into early Wednesday morning. However, the moist layer is quite thin and confined to the surface with ample dry air right above it. Current thinking is for any fog to be shallow ground fog with minimal impact to aviation, and therefore have kept fog out of the TAFs for now (outside of MVFR vsbys at KCRE due to proximity to ICW). Will reevaluate fog potential with future TAF issuances.

Extended Forecast... Moderate risk for late night/early morning fog due to increasing low-level moisture. Low risk for showers/storms Fri and moderate risk Sat.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable light breeze at night. Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night. In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period easterly swell at 10-13 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.