textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs

KEY MESSAGES

1)Today, Tuesday, and Wednesday bring unsettled weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...1)Today, Tuesday, and Wednesday bring unsettled weather.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Today's unsettled weather will be from a cold front pushing through from north to south. And while rain chances do appear good especially along the coast a continued mid level ridge axis will keep QPF from leading to any appreciable drought relief. Tuesday/Wednesday's rain will be from another cold front that moves through from the north but by then the mid level pattern will be more conducive to contain small scale vorticity centers for some added lift as the weakening upper low now over FL moves northward and a large scale trough enters the OH Valley.

AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Coastal stratus has developed across NC, but struggling to make much progress south. The lack of rainfall away from the NC coast last evening and lingering debris clouds have helped confine restrictions, mainly IFR, to ILM. Latest guidance has coastal IFR ending 1-2 hours after sunrise. Winds will remain light and variable winds. Afternoon showers and storms lingering into the evening hours will be the only source of what should be brief restrictions at any given location. Storm coverage will be higher than Friday with no particular location favored over the other so every terminal continues with them in the forecast. Storm coverage should diminish in the evening as there is no strong driver outside of daytime heating and the lingering front.

Extended Outlook...Showers and storms are most likely to cause flight restrictions Tuesday and Wednesday. Morning ground fog possible each morning through Monday.

MARINE

A very unusually large area of light winds and seas will be found across several thousand square miles off of the SE coast and Midatlantic for most of the forecast period. Tame winds and seas expected for all but the late portion of the forecast timeframe. The gradient will be poorly defined early on as a stalled and weakening front bisects the area. Wind and short period seas minimal and the SE swell also barely present across a large portion of the West Atlantic off of the SE coast. Even what little of a NE wind wave that develops late weekend largely remains offshore.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.