textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Seasonable temperatures today will be followed by a dry cold front later today, ushering in colder air for Thursday. Friday begins a warmup leading to near normal temperatures for the weekend before another dry cold front on Sunday brings a rush of modified arctic air to start the workweek.

UPDATE

Freezing Fog Advisory out for Coastal Georgetown county.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure will shift to our south through today ahead of a cold front moving through late tonight. A strong shortwave will move through in the afternoon with 925mb flow ~40 kts. Have increased wind gusts over land because of this, afternoon/evening wind gusts 25-30 mph. The frontal passage will be dry but we'll see a stream of high clouds push through with the shortwave ahead of it. Temperatures will be warmer today due to the increase SW flow ahead of the front, highs largely in the mid 50s and lows in the 30s, most spots above freezing.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry air will be ushered into the Carolinas behind exiting cold front Thurs. Deep NW flow early Thurs will flatten out aloft through Friday with H5 heights rebounding beginning on Friday. The 850 temps bottom out through Thurs aftn down near -5 C. Overall, a dry but cold day on Thurs with temps struggling to get to 50. Winds will weaken later on Thurs into Fri as gradient relaxes. Expect decent radiational cooling Thurs night with overnight lows near or below freezing. NW winds on Thurs will back around to the W to SW on Fri as high pressure migrates across the South. This will lead to warming across the area with temps rebounding to the mid to upper 50s after a chilly start. Temps Fri night will be closer to normal as airmass continues to modify.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Should see a westerly return flow on Saturday around high pressure to the south with seasonably temps near 60. Broad mid to upper trough will dig down pushing a cold front south through the area on Sunday. Strong high pressure will build down behind this front through early next week with plenty of dry and cold air advecting into the Carolinas. Temps will start cooling into Sun eve with modified arctic air settling over the area Sun night through Mon night. Overnight lows will be back down in the 20s and Mondays high may be closer to 40.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Chilly morning mist occasionally making VSBYs sub-VFR should burn off near the start of the TAF period so have not accounted for any restrictions due to this. Then, VFR through the period with SW winds gusting 20-25 kts in the afternoon/evening. A cold front could lead to increased wind shear as surface wind gusts start to calm after sunset but winds stay strong aloft. The threat should diminish after midnight with VFR expected at this time.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Increased SW flow ahead of a cold front will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions through the period due to ~30 kt gusts and seas 5-7 ft. The front will move through late tonight but improvement will be outside of the period.

Thursday through Sunday...Dry cold front moving farther offshore Thurs will leave an offshore flow up to 20 kts or so to start the day with Small Craft Advisory conditions ending. Gradient weakens with winds diminishing to 10 to 15 kts by Thur aftn and down to 10 kts or less by Thurs night into Fri in westerly return flow around high pressure migrating across the South. May see winds pick up a bit late Fri in continued offshore flow and again Sat night into Sun as another dry cold front reaches area. Strong high pressure will build in behind this front with winds kicking up out of the north late Sun. Should see SCA thresholds met Sun night into Mon as modified arctic air settles over the local waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...Freezing Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.