textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for 12Z TAFs.

Rain chances have decreased for Friday, with showers expected to decrease in coverage and intensity as they track from west to east.

There is now a very low (1 out of 5 or less) risk of a few severe storms Saturday afternoon, mainly in eastern SC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near-record to record high temps are forecast on Friday with isolated to scattered showers during the day.

2) Very low risk for severe storms Sat, mainly early to mid afternoon.

3) Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly near record lows Mon night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near-record to record high temps are forecast on Friday with gusty winds and isolated to scattered showers during the day.

An approaching surface cold front and building mid-upper ridging will result in anomalously warm temperatures on Friday (see CLIMATE section for records). Although multi-layered clouds will continue, they should be thin enough to allow temperatures to rise into the upper 70s to low 80s away from the coast during the afternoon. Southwest winds will become gusty by mid-morning as mixing gets underway, supporting sustained winds as high as 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30-40 mph away from the coast during the early-mid afternoon. Showers associated with the cold front should reach western parts of the area around midday, but should tend to weaken and thin out as they progress eastward.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Very low risk for severe storms Sat, mainly early to mid afternoon.

There is a very low risk for a few severe storms on Saturday, especially during the early to mid afternoon across eastern SC as the area briefly gets into a weak warm sector of an approaching low pressure system. The main threats are damaging winds and large hail but an isolated tornado can't completely be ruled out given the placement of the warm front across the area. Otherwise, the storm system will bring some much-needed rainfall with generally about 0.5- 0.75" but locally higher amounts over 1" are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly near record lows Mon night.

A much colder air mass will build in behind a departing storm system early next week bringing well below normal temps. Highs Mon/Tue will generally be near 50 with lows generally around 30. Could even be near record lows at Florence/N. Myrtle Beach Mon night (see Climate section below for details). Wind chills should be well down into the 20s each night, especially Sun/Mon nights. Wind chills into the upper teens are even possible but the chance for reaching 15 degrees or colder (i.e., Cold Weather Advisory criteria) is very low.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Multi-layered clouds will continue across the area through the period, with MVFR cigs likely to continue at the inland sites near I- 95 through much of this afternoon. Low cigs should scatter out at the inland TAF sites by late afternoon. The concern then shifts to the coast as at least MVFR sea fog and very low cigs become an increasing concern for the Myrtles tonight into Friday morning as higher dewpoint air moves over the chilly waters and SSW winds subside to around or below 10 kts tonight. After sunrise, increasing southwest winds should help to mix out any sea fog at the coastal terminals, although how quickly this occurs carries low confidence. Otherwise, showers will approach from the west near the end of the period, but their coverage will be on the decrease as they move in. Another round of daytime cumulus may result in MVFR cigs during the afternoon, at least at the inland sites near I-95.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions become increasingly likely from late Friday through the weekend due to a stalled front and passing low pressure. CIGs and VSBYs will be diminished with the threat of fog and light to moderate rainfall. VFR should return for early next week.

MARINE

Through Friday... Offshore high pressure will maintain steady southwest winds through the period as a cold front approaches and stalls on land. A tightening pressure gradient related to this approaching front will lead to winds gusting around 25 kts and seas up to 6 ft on Friday, with a SCA raised to account for this threat. Seas will rise from around 2-4 ft this afternoon to 3-6 ft on Friday, with the primary contributor a southerly wind wave and a secondary contribution from a lingering easterly swell of 1-2 ft every 12 seconds.

Friday night through Monday night...No big changes to the previous forecast with moderate to high confidence. A storm system will impact the area through early next week with a high chance of Small Craft Advisory conditions starting late Sun and continuing through Mon night. There is also a low risk for some gale force gusts starting Sun night. Sea fog will remain a risk into early Sun as a warm/moist air mass remains in place prior to the cold frontal passage.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

Record lows for 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (18 last set in 1901) Lumberton NC - KLBT (18 last set in 1978) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (26 last set in 2009) Florence SC - KFLO (24 last set in 1968)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 8 PM EST Friday for AMZ250- 252-254-256.