textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Banding along coastal southeast NC and extreme northeastern SC will result in additional snow accumulations up to 6 inches. Lighter accumulations are possible elsewhere. Dangerously cold temperatures will continue through Monday morning. Another cold weather advisory may be needed Monday night into Tuesday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heavy snow will continue for part of the area overnight. Hazardous travel and impacts to infrastructure will continue for several days to come.

2) A very cold air mass paired with snowfall will result in dangerous cold and record low temperatures. Wind chill temperatures below 15-20 degrees will linger through at least Monday night/Tuesday morning.

3) Dangerous marine conditions this weekend with a Gale Warning in effect.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1) Heavy snow will continue for part of the area overnight. Hazardous travel and impacts to infrastructure will continue for several days to come.

Latest radar trends indicate that heavy snowfall is occurring for most of southeastern NC and extreme northeastern SC. HREF and deterministic hi-res guidance suggests that additional snowfall could accumulate up to 6 additional inches. Satellite corroborates these incredible snowfall rates with cloud tops similar to a mini convective pulse. Locally higher amounts are certainly possible where some of these intense bands reside.

For the remainder of northeastern SC, the mesolow and upper very max is gradually pushing offshore, just south of the Myrtle Beach area. Places around Georgetown are finally starting to see some flakes after being plagued by a dry slot for much of the day. Accumulations will be lighter as precip rates remain light in this region. Additional accumulations up to 3 inches will be possible, primarily due to the atypical snow ratios. Some locally higher amounts will be possible.

Steadier snow will gradually transition to snow showers after sunrise. Strong subsidence and dry air will quickly bring an end to any precip this morning. Clear skies will follow, but brutally cold air and blustery winds will maintain very cold conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 2) A very cold air mass paired with snowfall will result in dangerous cold and record low temperatures. Wind chill temperatures below 15-20 degrees will linger through at least Monday night/Tuesday morning.

Dangerous cold is being observed across the area early this morning and this will continue through early Monday. Blustery winds, snow pack, and temperatures just below freezing will maintain wind chills around 20 degrees. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through Monday morning. Lows tonight will easily approach single digits and light winds will push wind chills to near zero or slightly below. Temperatures climb into the mid or upper 30s on Monday with overnight lows in the mid to upper teens. Another Cold Weather Advisory may be needed late Monday into early Tuesday.

Nearly all of our climate sites could see record-breaking low temperatures for several days. Record lows for Feb 1-3 are in the climate section below for reference.

KEY MESSAGE 3) Dangerous marine conditions this weekend with a Gale Warning in effect.

Marine section below has more info on marine hazards.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

IFR VIS in moderate and heavy snow will continue through 09-11Z with light snow likely thereafter. MVFR CIGs develop with the exiting snow this morning. VFR will quickly engulf the region early this morning and remain in place through the end of the period. Gusty today with gusts in excess of 25-30 knots today.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR conditions for the early work week period. Mid-week

MARINE

Through Sunday... Gale warning remains in effect. Latest surface observations show gusts approaching 40-45 knots. These winds will continue this morning as a deepening coastal low pushes offshore today. Gale force gusts continue through this evening with a period of breezy winds thereafter. Seas 5-8 feet will gradually improve to 4-6 feet this evening.

Monday through Thursday... Sub-SCA conditions for Monday through Wednesday as sfc high pressure passes off to the south. The next cold front crosses the area late Wednesday, and post- frontal CAA will likely lead to at least marginal SCA conditions Thursday over all coastal waters - mainly due to gusts since seas may only peak around 4-5 ft with the offshore winds.

CLIMATE

Record Low Temperatures for Feb 1 - Feb 3 ILM: 14 in 1936; 17 in 1980; 13 in 1917 FLO: 20 in 2010; 18 in 1980; 19 in 1980 CRE: 20 in 1945; 20 in 1945; 19 in 1942 LBT: 4 in 1936; 11 in 1980; 13 in 1980

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ017- 023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Extreme Cold Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254- 256.