textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAF issuance.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for all inland areas today. Pops have increased slightly across the board.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Expecting today to be very similar to Sunday from a temperature standpoint with convective coverage increasing somewhat. High resolution guidance is more aggressive with sea breeze convection than the global models but based on the somewhat impressive coverage inland Sunday an increase in pops seems warranted. Temperature guidance is very similar and although somewhat marginal in nature it appears a couple of hours of apparent temperatures at or in excess of 105 degrees is doable similar to Sunday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all areas noting the marginal nature of the product. More organic convection and debris cloudiness may dictate readings slightly but only a couple of hours of max heating before dry air mixing down seemingly does the trick.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Basically VFR to dominate thru 16Z with any ground fog dissipating around 12Z, thus did not include in this update. Days convection have been indicated with PROB30 groups with emphasis on gusts up to 40 kt possible and reduced vsby to 4sm in TSRA. Kept the convection going inland terminals, at a reduced intensity, thru 04Z given outflows and sea breeze interaction. Winds generally SW increasing to around 10 kt by midday. At the coastal terminals, winds will back to the South and further increase to 10-15 kt g20 kt due to the sea breeze formation by midday and slow inland progression there-after.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms thru atleast Thu.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds continue through today as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the evening. Some convection could distort winds temporarily. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.