textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have lowered pops for this afternoon and evening, with spotty showers possible across northeast SC. Best chance of thunderstorms will be across southwestern Williamsburg and Georgetown counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warming trend kicks in Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

2) Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing more organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or severe.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warming trend kicks in Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

Sunshine and low rain chances will allow seasonable temps in the low 90s to return Monday. Heat indices will approach triple digits Monday, with decent mixing helping to keep dewpoints in a reasonable range. Storms may develop along the sea breeze Monday afternoon, mainly across Cape Fear region, as very dry air above 700mb keeps coverage isolated. High temps increase into the mid 90s Tuesday. Have lowered dewpoints based on soundings showing another day of deep mixing, which in turn keeps the latest forecast generally below advisory criteria Tuesday with afternoon heat indices of 100-105F. Majority of Tuesday will be mostly sunny and dry before the next round of storms approach (see Key Message 2).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing more organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or severe.

Next organized rain and storm chances come in late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning with the next front. This front misses out on the diurnal heating, but it appears the extra moisture and buoyancy that gets injected in the atmosphere will provide energy for potentially strong to severe storms. Strong winds would likely be the biggest concern here. These storms could also produce a lot of lightning at times. Forecast mostly dries out behind the front for daytime Wednesday through Friday with seasonable temperatures.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Predominantly VFR through early tonight, with stubborn IFR/MVFR stratus across northwestern areas finally breaking up in the next hour or two. Spotty showers across NE SC through this evening, but coverage isn't enough for TAF inclusion - best chance for thunderstorm will be southwestern Williamsburg and Georgetown counties. Relatively shallow fog is forecasted to develop inland late tonight through dawn Monday, with best chance of lower vsbys across inland NE SC (including KFLO). VFR conditions to follow shortly after daybreak, with continued light winds across the area.

Extended Forecast...Chance of fog inland Monday night/Tuesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through late week with relatively brief flight restrictions from isolated storms Monday afternoon for Cape Fear region and scattered storms late Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Friday...Front now south of the area will linger across the Southeast over the next couple of days, keeping winds relatively light across the coastal waters through early Tuesday at 10 knots or less, with seas in the 2-3 ft range from ESE swell. An approaching cold front Tuesday night will lead to strengthening SSW winds Tuesday afternoon into overnight hours, peaking Tuesday night near 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts out to 20 nm and 25 kts gusts to 30 kts from 20 to 60nm. Seas also build quickly Tuesday afternoon, with 4-6 ft seas forecasted for Tuesday night from southerly fresh swell. Conditions will be improving during the day Wednesday, with winds turn westerly in the morning as front moves offshore. Relatively light and variable winds return for the end of the week as the aforementioned cold front is forecasted to stall somewhere across the Southeast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.