textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

00Z Taf Discussion Updated.

Gusty southerly winds will continue thru early this evening. This a result of a tightened sfc pg combined with the inland push of the sea breeze. After sunset, will take out the sea breeze to the wind equation leaving a slowly somewhat relaxed gradient by midnight resulting in south to southwest winds diminishing to around 5 mph or less thru the night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

2) Shower chances will increase over the latter half of the weekend as a disturbance moves across the Southeast followed by a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming is expected through Wednesday followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

As high pressure lifts northeastward tonight into Wednesday morning, a coastal trough will rotate northwestward toward the southeastern NC coast. Increasing low level moisture with this trough could produce a few showers near the coast, this evening through early Wednesday morning. Further increases in low level moisture are expected to occur on Wednesday. Winds turn SW-erly tomorrow which should tend to keep offshore showers along the coastal trough just offshore. A stray shower remains possible along a mesoscale convergence zone near the coast.

High rain chances return Thursday as a deepening mid to upper level trough pushes a cold front closer. Increasing upper-level support will produce heavier showers and some thunderstorms ahead of the front, however the severe potential is not particularly high due to cloud cover and deep-layer flow being parallel to the front. Cooler and drier air will follow behind the front for Friday with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2:Shower chances will increase over the latter half of the weekend as a disturbance moves across the Southeast followed by a cold front.

May see a couple of waves of low pressure run across the deep South into the Southeast over the weekend. Looks like main shower activity on Sat should remain south, with more in the way of possible clouds in our area. By Sunday, pcp chances will increase as a shortwave tracks across the Southeast followed by a cold front moving through from the northwest. Models are not aligned with the exact evolution of these features, but overall expect some clouds and potential for showers or thunderstorms in spots over the weekend, especially later on Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the next 24 hrs. Outside the quickly decaying CU attm, look for thin cirrus advecting overhead becoming more opaque during Wed. In addition Wed, will observe another Cu field and again shunted in vertical development. At the coastal terminals, Scu and Cu over the adjacent waters tonight into Wed morning, may skirt along the coast affecting mainly CRE/MYR with SCT/BKN 3500-4000 ft decks and possibly as far inland as ILM. S-SW Winds will quickly drop to 5 to 9 kt after sunset and will likely hover around 5 kt overnight. SW Winds around 5 kt will dominate all terminals after daybreak, then increase to 10-15 kt g20+ kt midday thru the evening. Winds will back to the S-SSW at the coastal terminals once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland.

Extended Forecast... An approaching cold front Thu may produce early morning stratus followed by relatively brief flight restrictions associated with showers or thunderstorms during the day. Mainly VFR conditions expected Fri thru Sat with possible flight restrictions Sun as the next frontal system pushes across.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... A stiff sea breeze continues to create choppy seas near the coast this afternoon. Gradient winds remain elevated tonight and Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold front on Thursday. Seas increase from 1-2 feet tonight through to 3-4 feet by Wednesday night.

Wednesday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions continue into Wednesday night with SSW flow around 10 to 20 kts on the west side of offshore sfc high pressure. Winds and seas then ramp up through the day Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Overall, winds will be 15 to 20 kts within 20 nm with some higher gusts, and seas mainly 3 to 5 ft Thu aftn into Thu evening. Therefore, at this time, it does not look like a Small Craft Advisory will be needed. Beyond 20 nm, in the 20-60 nm range, winds could reach up to 20 to 25 kts with gusts to 30 and seas up to 6 ft Thu aftn into Thu evening. Winds and seas will drop off after midnight into Fri morning in offshore flow behind cold front.

Marine conditions improve for Fri and Sat as sfc high pressure builds over the waters. Another increase in winds and seas will occur late Sun into Mon as a cold front approaches the waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.