textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. Gale Watch issued for local coastal waters Tuesday night through Wednesday night (6z Wed - 6z Thurs).

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below normal temperatures through late week. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

2) An extended period of hazardous marine conditions begins Tuesday night and persists through the end of the week. Potential for gale-force gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday.

3) Elevated fire weather conditions possible Wednesday.

4) Hazardous surf conditions expected at east and southeast facing beaches for most of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below normal temperatures through late week. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

Cool airmass in place with low level north-northeast flow over the next few days will keep temperatures below normal through late week. High temps around 65-70F each afternoon through Thursday. The lowest temperatures will be Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Current forecast has min temps in the 40-45F range, with potential for upper 30s. Thankfully, elevated winds keeping boundary layer mixed on the east side of low level ridge to the north will hinder radiational cooling and prevent frost/freeze concerns.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An extended period of hazardous marine conditions begins Tuesday night and persists through the end of the week. Potential for gale-force gusts Tuesday night and Wednesday.

See Marine Section below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Elevated fire weather conditions possible Wednesday.

Minimum RH values near 30% in the afternoon combined with gusty northeast winds around 25 mph, potentially 30 mph, may lead to elevated fire weather conditions for both northeast SC and southeast NC on Wednesday. Fire Danger Statements may be coordinated with local fire agencies during subsequent forecast packages.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Hazardous surf conditions expected at east and southeast facing beaches for most of the week.

Moderate rip current risk forecasted for east-facing beaches Tuesday due to lingering ENE swell. Surf conditions worsen Tuesday night into Wednesday as ENE swell quickly builds with long fetch of elevated winds over the western Atlantic. These elevated swells may lead to high rip current risk for east and southeast facing beaches Wednesday through Friday. There is also potential for breaking wave heights of 6-7 ft Wednesday through Friday for New Hanover and Georgetown county beaches, and a High Surf Advisory may be needed.

AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF period. Light winds tonight become up to ~10 kt out of the NNE daytime Tuesday as sfc high pressure moves eastwards north of the area.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...High pressure will build into the NE US through the period. Locally this keeps flow out of the NE. AFter a short- lived relaxation of the gradient tonight these winds will pick back up rather quickly on Tuesday as the high drops into PA setting up a long fetch into the Carolinas adding swell energy to the burgeoning wind chop. See below that that longer term forecaster has raised headlines this package.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Long fetch of gusty NE winds across the western Atlantic, between ridge to the north and trough well offshore, will lead to hazardous marine conditions quickly developing Tuesday night. SCA conditions are forecasted to persist through late Friday due to prolonged period of elevated seas. Northeast winds peak Tuesday night through late Wednesday, with forecasted gusts near gale-force prompting the issuance of a Gale Watch. Confidence in gale conditions isn't high, and the watch may be replaced by a SCA for high-end advisory conditions, especially due to elevated seas. Winds remain out of the northeast through the end of the week, though at slowly weakening speeds.

The prolonged NE fetch will lead to rapidly increasing wave heights Tuesday night, with 3-5 ft waves Tuesday evening building to 6-9 ft by daybreak Wednesday in the form of ENE swell. Seas remain in the 6- 9 ft range through late Wednesday before very slowly improving, but only lowering by about one foot each day through Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through late Wednesday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.