textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Cold, dry high pressure will linger through Tuesday night before moving offshore ahead of a weak, dry cold front. Warmer high pressure will then build in through Friday with temperatures rising well above normal for late December. Another cold front may approach early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

High pressure moves off the coast tonight leading to pretty aggressive moisture advection. Current dewpoints in the teens wind up in the 50s by the period's end. This leads to a brief window of overcast skies according to guidance even though the moisture is only through a depth of 6kft with dry air above. This cloud layer will manifest during the latter part of the overnight through about midday. Thereafter the dry air will mix down enough for at least partial breaks of sun from west to east. Despite the lack of full sun Tuesday afternoon there will be sufficient WAA for highs in the mid 60s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Quiet weather with warming through Wednesday ahead of a cold front. Highs in many areas could reach near 70. Slightly cooler Wednesday night as the colder air behind the front starts to come in from north to south, lows dropping by about 5 degrees. A wave of high clouds may also push through Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly quiet period with temperatures above normal due to primarily zonal flow aloft. Towards the end of the period a high amplitude trough and low pressure system could push through to our north, dragging a cold front through. This would result in a cooldown after the frontal passage towards the end of the period.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions expected through Tuesday. A cloud layer will develop late tonight or early tomorrow but should remain above MVFR for the most part. Weak high pressure moving offshore tonight just north of the area will bring veering of the winds, becoming SW by Tuesday morning.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR. Some restrictions possible Friday with increasing clouds along a warm front.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... The early part of near term will be characterized by both veering and abating winds as high pressure moves off the coast. As Tuesday progresses however winds will once again increase in speed as low pressure starts to develop in the NE. After conditions fall below advisory levels this afternoon they will remain below thresholds.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...SW flow ~15 kts will become offshore and lighter Wednesday with the passage of a cold front. Stronger SW flow will build back in Friday ahead of another front. Seas generally 2-3 ft with some 4 footers at the start of the period and Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.