textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures will sink below seasonal norms for the next several days. Frost Advisory in effect inland tonight and Freeze Watch remains in effect Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures will sink below seasonal norms for the next several days. Frost Advisory in effect inland tonight and Freeze Watch remains in effect Saturday night.

Cold advection will maintain below normal temperatures into next week. A deep upper trough moving across tonight may squeeze out a few light showers over southeast NC late this evening. Temperatures drop into the 30s tonight and there is chance for patchy to areas of frost inland by Saturday morning and therefore a Frost Advisory has been issued. However, confidence is low in frost formation due to boundary layer winds remaining slightly elevated due to the aforementioned trough. If the winds go light/calm anywhere overnight (especially sheltered areas), the temperatures will quickly drop and frost will develop. If winds remain elevated through morning, temperatures will likely remain in the upper 30s. Since this might not be uniform (some locations may go calm while others remain mixed), the Frost Advisory was issued to cover the potential.

Saturday night remains the coldest night of the forecast, with forecasted temps at or just below freezing away from the coast (confidence is low in freeze potential for New Hanover and Brunswick counties as well). The Freeze Watch remains in place for Saturday night and will evaluate upgrading to a Warning with tonight's forecast package. Daytime temps this weekend will struggle to hit 60F.

Low temps remain in the 30s into middle of next week with high pressure moving overhead allowing for good radiational cooling each night. High temps near 60F Monday will slowly warm each day during the week.

Besides the potential for spotty showers tonight, forecast remains dry through next week.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR. Cloudy skies for much of the night will clear out a little before daybreak, but all ceilings will remain above 6k ft. Potential for an isolated sprinkle as the base of the mid-level trough moves across the area tonight, but nothing significant. Northwest winds continue with some afternoon gustiness on Sat with speeds and frequency similar to or slightly less than Fri.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Winds out of the northwest through the weekend will veer to north-northeast early next week as high pressure settles over the East Coast. Winds peak tonight as an upper trough moves across, with speeds of 15-20 kts and gusts up to 30 kts near 60nm offshore. Winds generally 15 kts or less thereafter until Tuesday, when winds increase again to 15-20 kts through late week. Seas 2-3 ft across the 0-20nm waters through midweek, with brief period of 1-2 ft seas Sunday. For the 20-60nm waters, wave heights 3- 5 ft tonight will lower to 2-4 ft through early Tuesday before building again into Wednesday. Seas primarily wind wave driven. Forecast remains dry, outside of possible nocturnal convection in the outer coastal waters midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for NCZ087-096. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for NCZ087-096-099-105-109. SC...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 8 AM EST Saturday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039. Freeze Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None.