textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expanded the Heat Advisory to include Robeson County given the potential for marginal criteria there. Otherwise there were no major changes with the forecast. All sections were updated for the start of the new day.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat is expected to continue through much of the week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat is expected to continue through much of the week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

While Heat Advisory thresholds have been marginal, the persistence of this heat event is problematic. A decent portion of the forecast area is once again expected to hit Heat Advisory thresholds this afternoon. Opted to include Robeson County to the advisory. Above normal temperatures are expected to persist through much of the week, however the subtropical ridge will lose it's grip opening the door to some showers and thunderstorms. Weak impulses in the weak westerly flow aloft may spark some widely scattered storms for inland areas later today. A weak H5 trough drifting east from the MS Valley Mon through Thu along with an increasingly active sea breeze front could help provide additional rounds of storm each day.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

No flight restrictions are expected. The sea breeze will create an uptick in winds along the coast. A few SHRA/TSRA are expected to fire, and may provide some temporary restrictions at KLBT/KFLO later in the afternoon/early evening.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Monday, continuing through Wednesday.

MARINE

Inland trough and high pressure far off the coast will maintain S-SWly winds across the coastal and offshore waters Sunday and Monday. The pressure gradient will tighten during Monday into Monday night allowing for an increase in seas/choppy conditions. Tuesday looks to be a repeat, along with Wednesday given the surface pattern. GEFS >20 knot probabilities exist starting Tuesday, but the highest probs are Wed and Thu. Either way, given the persistent S-SWly fetch this does not look like a good week for boating.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.