textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front on Monday will bring the chance for severe weather followed by freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front on Monday will bring the chance for severe weather followed by freezing temperatures Tuesday night.

A very strong jet will dive out of the PAC NW and into the Plains Saturday into Sunday carving out a deep trough that cuts off over MI by Monday. This system will take on a negative tilt and a downstream 250mb jet will develop, which we will be in the right entrance of. The stage appears set for a strongly forced squall line that should yield at a minimum of damaging winds. This has led to SPC highlighting our area in a fairly rare Day4 Outlook (15%). SPC also points out that the degree of low level shear and thus the risk for more organized convection/supercells is uncertain this far out in time. Impressive CAA behind this boundary will turn the calendar back to winter from a temperature standpoint, with mid to upper 30s Monday night and highs Tuesday struggling to exceed 50. Even our lowest normal highs in the heart of January tend towards the mid and upper 50s. The chilliest weather of this cold snap will come Tuesday night when all areas save for the immediate beaches will dip below freezing. And although the growing season will not have officially started meaning no frost/freeze products the recent stint of warm weather has put some fauna a bit ahead of the curve and have no doubt that we will hit the cold hard with briefings ahead of time and SPSs the night of.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mainly VFR thruout the fcst period. Only fly in the ointment is that latest guidance still wants to paint a fog threat for LBT early this morning. For now will include a 4 hr tempo group for MVFR fog. Otherwise, SKC with periodically passing cirrus thru the period. Will have to watch for any onshore movement of stratocu or low altocu for the CRE/MYR late today or tonight. Winds will see a slow veering trend from NE at the start of this period to S-SW by the end of this period. Wind speeds generally AOB 6 kt night-time to AOB 10 kt daytime.

Extended Forecast...VFR is expected late Friday night through Saturday. Flight restrictions are possible due to increasing rain chances and associated cloud decks, first Sun from a WFP and secondary Mon, from a strong CFP with increasing potential for severe thunderstorm activity.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Winds/seas to further diminish and subside respectively during this period. At the same time, center of sfc high pressure straddling the NC and SC Coasts this morning, will slide off the coast and offshore tonight. Sfc ridging will continue to extend back to the SW, extending and remaining south of the local waters, hence the S-SW winds by the end of this period. The sfc pg will remain somewhat relaxed, with wind speeds initially around 15 kt thru this morning, diminishing to AOB 10 kt later today thru tonight. Seas at their peak at the start of this period, remain in a subsiding trend during this period. The wind chop will subside this period leaving a fresh/pseudo ENE-E swell at 6 to 7 second periods.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...There will not be a well defined pressure pattern across the Southeast on Saturday meaning light winds and seas on the local waters. South to southeasterly flow should increase gradually on Sunday as high pressure develops off the NE coast and a rapidly deepening low moves into the Great Lakes. The approach of a front trailing from the Great Lakes low should ramp winds and/or seas to advisory levels Sunday night and then more solidly so Monday. Gale force gusts will be hard to rule out though cool SST- induced stability may say otherwise. The sharp frontal veer later Monday will steepen wave faces while dominant wave height likely doesn't fall below advisory thresholds until Tuesday in the only gradually abating NW flow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.