textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

For Wednesday July 1st... High rip current risk for New Hanover County Beaches. Moderate rip risk for Pender, Horry and Georgetown County Beaches. Decent Easterly 8 to 9 second period swell and onshore winds to combine to create conditions for Mod to High rip current risk across the aforementioned beaches. Best time for rip currents to occur is usually within a window surrounding low tide. For WED, afternoon's low tide around 3 pm, looking at generally between noon and 6 pm.

Aviation discussion updated with 00Z TAFs Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

2) Near-zero chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb heights at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before weakening as it then settles over the Carolinas late this week and gradually moves into the Atlantic over the weekend. This will yield well above normal temperatures, especially inland, where they could be near record levels. Given the placement of this upper high and deep- layer flow mainly between north and east until this weekend, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated across the local area, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat during the work week. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the air temperatures, except around the sea breeze, where ocean temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Near-zero chance for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the coast very low (near 0%) and highly unlikely to affect the local area.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions to dominate this 24 hr 00Z TAF Issuance period. Exceptions will be possible MVFR flight restrictions between 08Z and 13Z from patchy shallow ground fog and/or low stratus that could progress to a few observations with IFR conditions although confidence remains low with this occurrence at this time. Otherwise, looking at VFR SCT/BKN Cu field by mid to late morning at all terminals, then once the sea breeze develops and pushes inland during the aftn/evening, coastal terminals to become SKC. An isolated shower remains possible along the sea breeze but too low of a chance to place at any of the coastal terminals. Winds generally back to the E then NE AOB 5 kt tonight. Winds increase to 5 to 10 kt during Wed morning, becoming E to SE around 10 kt Wed aftn/evening, with possible gusts to 15+ kt at the coastal terminals.

Extended Forecast... Mainly VFR with dry conditions anticipated as high pressure prevails. Periodic low clouds/fog possible each late night/early morning.

MARINE

Tuesday through Sunday...Expect northeast to east winds and seas to subside from tonight through Thursday as high pressure over the central Appalachians holds firmly in place. As a thermal trough develops over the Piedmont late this week, expect winds to veer further into the southeast to south range for Thursday night through Sunday with seas subsiding into the 1-3 ft range. In addition, as temperatures rise well-above normal for Friday-Sunday, expect stronger sea breezes with a more pronounced nearshore enhancement to the winds each afternoon.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels later this week and through the holiday weekend. Below are the records for July 3-5...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ108. SC...None. MARINE...None.