textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers likely on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

2) Rain chances return this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers likely on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

Shower chances remain high on Thursday. The timing of these showers appears to have settled into two distinct windows. A deepening upper level trough will support convection west of the area overnight. This mass of showers and thunderstorms will progress eastward with remnant convection moving into the area after sunrise on Thursday. This appears to be the best chance of rain across the area. SPC maintains a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow, but modeled instability and lightning probabilities have shifted southward. This is consistent with the expectation that downshear venting of ongoing convection will lead to a cold pool ahead of the updrafts. This would force the convection to drift southeastward in search of sustenance. While severe weather probabilities are low, they are not zero due to strong winds aloft. Showers could bring some of that momentum toward the surface, especially after sunrise (more likely east of I-95 and south of US-74).

Rainfall probabilities decrease during the mid afternoon (after 18Z), but this will not be a "clean" end to rain chances. Isolated showers will likely exist in a warm and moist low-level environment. The second round of showers is likely after 02Z when the primary cold front begins to drift southward. Dry air will follow the front, so rain chances should end just after midnight for all areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain chances return this weekend into early next week.

Fairly low confidence forecast in place for this weekend into early next week following a definite dry day on Friday. Guidance continues to be inconsistent with regards to timing and strength of waves of energy within a broader upr-level trough. For now, the highest PoPs are Sunday and Monday ahead of and along an approaching sfc cold front. Depending on the timing of the front, thunderstorms and heavy rain are possible late Monday as well. Will fine-tune the details and timing as we get closer in time.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in generally VFR overnight, although some mostly light showers could impact the inland terminals (KLBT/KFLO). Conditions will then go downhill Thu as deeper moisture moves into the area ahead of an approaching cold front. We kept conditions no worse than MVFR but IFR will be possible. Also, left thunderstorms out but there is a low risk for those as well. Winds will be steady and gusty at times ahead of the cold frontal passage with LLWS overnight into early Thu during the period of lowest surface gusts.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions may continue through early Friday due to northerly winds behind a cold front. Another brief chance of rain on Saturday could produce restrictions near the coast. Unsettled weather continues on Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Through Thursday... Southerly winds remain breezy today as the gradient tightens ahead of a cold front tomorrow. Winds over the nearshore waters could gust to 20-25 knots at times tonight. Seas of 3-4 feet tonight increase to 4-5 feet on Thursday. Gradient winds and seas are unlikely to reach SCA thresholds for a prolonged period on Thursday. Model guidance has illustrated a brief increase during the late morning and early afternoon which coincides convective probabilities. This line of showers and storms will move offshore, but confidence in its exact location is low. Any potentially hazardous conditions will be handled with convective warnings due to the brevity of the threat.

Thursday night through Monday... The CAA following the cold fropa late Thursday is not particularly strong, so winds Thursday night are not expected to be any higher than they are Thursday. Sfc high pressure passes through on Friday before southerly flow redevelops for the rest of the period with the high staying offshore. Winds up to 10-15 kt Saturday and Sunday will increase up to 15-20 kt Sunday night and Monday as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next cold front. Seas will remains below SCA thresholds as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.