textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temps a bit tonight and added patchy frost in the some normally colder inland spots. Updated aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with a slight increase in clouds and rain chances ahead of next cold front Thursday.

2)A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with a slight increase in clouds and rain chances ahead of next cold front Thursday.

A dry cold front will drop south into the area tonight with little to no influence on the weather. A bit drier behind it, but models have backed off on the extent of dry air. This will help to keep overnight lows a bit higher, low 40s most places. Low temperatures rebound thereafter as moisture gradually returns from the southwest Tues through Thurs ahead of next system. The digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a chance of showers come Thurs as it pushes a cold front through.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows and possibly frost/freeze conditions. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around this broader trough through Saturday, there is also at least a very low end chance of a spotty passing shower or a few clouds in an otherwise dry and cold airmass.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions and light winds. May see some shallow ground fog in spots overnight but not enough confidence in impacts to include mention.

Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday with a frontal passage, but confidence is low and will depend on timing of the front. VFR to follow Friday into the weekend.

MARINE

Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into early Thursday. SW to W winds should increase starting Wed night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty W to NW winds behind the front. Could see Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday.

Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters today will gradually subside into the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters tonight. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while westerly to southwesterly wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late Thursday into the weekend in response to increasing winds associated with a cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.