textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A front front will waver across the Carolinas this weekend with large day-to-day changes in temperatures anticipated. A few showers may accompany one last day of warmth on Monday as a strong cold front arrives from the west. Dry and colder weather is expected Tuesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Yet another sequence of a backdoor front pushing across the area through tonight. Currently the front that went across early Friday morning is making it's way northward in a diffuse manner as a warm front would. Very warm conditions are expected to develop today with highs in the lower to middle 70s under strong warm air advection/good mixing. With subtle convergence aloft to the west tonight a/the front will push southward once again with challenging low temperatures/lower clouds. It appears the boundary makes a first attempt early in the day but is rebuffed by the strong heating. The official forecast paints upper 30s northern areas to near 50 extreme south.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Saturday's cold front should be stalled near the Savannah River Sunday morning. High pressure shifting east and off the Mid Atlantic coast during the day should produce veering low level winds capped off by a frontal inversion 3000-5000 feet aloft. This scenario has sometimes resulted in moisture/clouds becoming trapped below the inversion with temperatures running colder than expected. Both the 00z GFS and NAM MOS show highs stalling in the upper 50s for many cities across our area Sunday. This is a good 5-6 degrees cooler than the latest NBM and could be a better indication of where Sunday's temperatures will land.

Veering winds should eventually allow the stalled front to return north as a warm front Monday evening. Rapidly increasing low level south to southwest flow will develop as a strong cold front crosses the southern Appalachians around sunrise Monday. It won't take but 1000-1500 feet of vertical mixing during the day Monday to mix down 30 knot (35 mph) wind gusts to the surface, aided by temperatures expected to rise to 70-75 degrees.

Compared to yesterday, new models show less boundary layer moisture returning ahead of the front, erasing most of the anticipated small instability below 700 mb. This means Monday's shower chances have taken a dive with our new forecast, now only 10-20 percent. The front should reach the area late in the afternoon with a shift to gusty west winds and plunging dewpoints.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Cold advection behind Monday's front will continue into Tuesday as Canadian high pressure over the Plains builds over the Southeast states. Highs on Tuesday will have trouble reaching 50 degrees, and may just barely reach that on Wednesday. The high should reach the Gulf coast Thursday morning.

An impressive series of shortwaves diving southeastward across the Great Lakes and the Northeast late in the week should push a secondary cold front through the Carolinas Thursday night. This should maintain dry weather and below normal temperatures through much of the coming week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Diffuse front still resides somewhere across the area but dewpoint depressions are lower to near zero south so it appears that is where the boundary resides. Some MVFR to perhaps IFR BR may develop anywhere really but seems points further north (ILM) may escape. VFR should develop quickly after sunrise.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions could occur early Sunday morning and again early next week associated with a strong cold front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...West to southwest winds will develop and or continue across the waters today as the transition is underway. Speeds will be 10-15 knots. This will once again be followed by a strong NE surge tonight as a backdoor front pushes across. Speeds will maximize at 10-15 knots thus limiting significant seas to 2-4 feet.

Sunday through Wednesday...With Saturday's front stalled down near the Savannah River Sunday morning, northeast to east winds 10 to 15 knots are expected. High pressure will scoot east off the Mid Atlantic coast during the day, allowing the front to return north again Sunday night. Wind directions should veer southerly during the evening, increasing from the southwest overnight.

A strong cold front will cross the southern Appalachians at sunrise Monday. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of this front should lead to southwest winds increasing to 20-25 knots, almost certainly necessitating a Small Craft Advisory for our entire area Monday. These adverse conditions should continue Monday night behind the front as winds shift to the west and northwest.

Canadian high pressure should build across the Southeast states Tuesday and Wednesday with decreasing offshore winds expected.

CLIMATE

It's no surprise this has been a cool month so far. Since December 1 observed temperatures have averaged 4 to almost 5 degrees below normal. With the exception of November, local monthly average temperatures have been below normal since August.

Plugging in our forecast temperatures through December 31 and computing annual totals and averages from those implies 2025 could go down as the coolest year since 2014 for Wilmington, Florence, and Lumberton. North Myrtle Beach may end the year with annual average temperatures tied with 2022.

Preliminary 2025 Annual Averages (using forecast highs & lows) Wilmington........64.3, coolest since 63.7 in 2014 N. Myrtle Beach...64.1, tied with 64.1 in 2022 Florence..........64.6, coolest since 63.5 in 2014 Lumberton.........63.5, coolest since 62.1 in 2014

Look for a detailed year-end climate summary coming next week!

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.