textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated key messages to highlight the upcoming unsettled weather, potential for heavy rain, and to begin focusing on the next round of heat and humidity next week. The marine section was also updated and the aviation section for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

A mid/upper level trough across the Southeast U.S. will persist through Sunday with a high PWAT environment in place. This will lead to a few rounds of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. An increasingly diffuse front will drift into the area as well, and H3 RRQ would aid convection. The high PWATs support the potential for heavy rainfall at times, and the area is highlighted in a Slight ERO Friday. Probabilistic precipitation plots show a potential high end range of 2 to 6+ inches across northeast SC and southeast NC through Sunday morning. A Flood Watch may need to be considered but at this time the the more extreme amounts are very localized.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

Heat and humidity will return next week as the mid/upper ridge becomes established east of the MS Valley. The forecast area may observe highs in the mid to possibly upper 90s by Tuesday through Thursday. The heat, coupled with the higher humidity, may prompt another round of area-wide Heat Advisories.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Some VSBY/CIG restrictions are possible today at times due to passing SHRA/TSRA. Expect coverage to diminish with the loss of heat this evening. Could see a round of restrictions overnight into early Friday with some stratus/fog potential, especially at KFLO and KLBT. Another active day with convection at times during Friday.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as well, diurnally enhanced Saturday and Sunday (lesser chances Monday and Tuesday).

MARINE

Through Tuesday...S-SWly flow will prevail tonight through Friday with a nearly stationary front across the inland Carolinas and high pressure far offshore. This front will gradually shift to the coast and become increasingly diffuse. With the old front in the vicinity light/variable winds will prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of S-SWly winds potentially increasing to around 15 knots by Tuesday, especially across the NC waters. Seas will be 3 ft or less through much of the period given the light winds and lack of any significant swells.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.