textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the middle of next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through the period which isn't good news as far as the drought is concerned. Dry W/NW flow will be in place through Friday with temps near to slightly below normal. The only minor concern Thu/Fri will be low relative humidities dipping to around 25-30% each afternoon, but fortunately winds shouldn't be high enough to warrant an appreciable fire danger. A warming trend then ensues into the weekend through early next week with rising upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard and forecast high temps running above normal (around 90) across inland areas. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support max heat indices much higher than air temps so no concern for reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees).

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Solidly VFR through the 18Z TAF period with winds out of the NW to NNW. Intermittent gusts up to 18-20 kts this afternoon, but should calm by sunset. VFR cumulus will give way to SKC tonight. Winds may back slightly towards the WNW towards the end of the period.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Monday. Perhaps there could be some patchy fog heading towards sunrise Sunday and Monday mornings, but confidence on that idea is quite low.

MARINE

Through Friday... Winds may vary at times this afternoon, but should mostly stay out of the northwest with a gentle breeze. Winds veer slightly to the NNW late tonight, temporarily increasing to a moderate breeze until mid-Friday morning. From there, winds return to a gentle breeze and gradually back towards the SW throughout the day. Through this evening, look for 2-3 ft seas out 20 nm from shore, with up to 4 ft seas out 60 nm from shore. When gradient winds jump up late tonight, some 4 ft waves may infiltrate the coastal zones out 20 nm, while the offshore zones out 60 nm may reach 5 ft. By Friday afternoon when the brief increase in winds subsides, seas come down to 1-3 ft along the coastal zones, 3-4 ft in the offshore zones.

Friday night through Tuesday... High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay only 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.