textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lingering showers and thunderstorms will move offshore over the next couple of hours. Dense fog is possible this morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Intermittent sea fog will continue to impact the coastal waters and immediate coastline through Wednesday.

2)The warmth peaks Wednesday before a cold front arrives on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent sea fog will continue to impact the coastal waters and immediate coastline through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Persistent advection of warm, moist air over the waters will continue to produce intermittent sea fog, dense at times, through mid-week. Best chance will be overnight into midday. Sea fog will continue to impact the immediate coastline as well, especially during morning hours. Strong cold front early Thursday will finally bring an end to this extended stretch of on and off sea fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The warmth peaks Wednesday before a cold front arrives on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As has been the case for several days now a summer-like Bermuda High pattern will keep temperatures well above normal through the mid week period. Wednesday gets a small prefrontal bolstering of the WAA and inland locations will take a run at record highs, listed below. The marine layer will keep coastal climate sites records safe as SSTs remain in the low 50s. A strong cold front arrives Thursday bringing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Extrapolating the SPC outlooks it's easy to see that the front will bring a small but non-zero chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is not surprising given both the vigor of the boundary and the ample warmth and moisture in place ahead of it passage. The cooldown back to normal temperatures looks to be limited to Thursday night through Friday night before the post-frontal high moves offshore and we get back into return flow.

Inland record highs for March 11: FLO 86 set in 2015 LBT 87 from 1925

MARINE

Through Tonight... Showers and storms have kept most of the nearshore sea fog from redeveloping. However, as showers move farther offshore and light southerly flow returns this morning sea fog may redevelop prior to sunrise. A nearshore sea breeze may break up existing sea fog during the late morning and afternoon, but little change in dew points and light winds tonight could see it redevelop through early Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday... The Bermuda High continues to be the dominant weather-maker over both land and sea. For the marine environment this means more southwesterly flow generating a 2-3 ft wind with a southeasterly swell. Big changes come with a strong cold front Thursday that will sharply turn winds through W, NW, and eventually NE with sustained SCA speeds and gale- force gusts. Seas will also build to advisory levels. It's a quick shot though so headlines may come down as early as Thursday night in a very progressive surface pattern.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.