textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change to forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1)One more day of heat before some much needed rainfall chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...One more day of heat before some much needed rainfall chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Despite some weakly cyclonic mid level flow impinging from the north, a precursor to our eventual troughiness, as well as a continued Piedmont Trough, models are in good agreement that the area stays rain-free through Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory will be needed for similar areas as today. A few showers or storms may pop up Wednesday night as a prefrontal band of moisture is shunted into the area, though some guidance keeps this activity to our north. By Thursday the front drops into the area. This boundary should stall near the coast bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather and some much needed drought releif while breaking the heat. Of note though that the 5 day QPF forecast from WPC has pulled some of the higher amounts previously forecast a bit to the north away from the area.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Generally VFR. Clouds will tend to be confined to the mid and upper levels. A Piedmont Trough will keep SW winds rather gusty especially during daytime hours.

Extended Forecast...Potential for brief MVFR/IFR from storms will gradually increase beginning Wednesday and remain possible through Saturday, mainly in the afternoon and evening. More solid restrictions may arrive Thursday with a frontal passage bringing the potential for IFR CIGs.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday...The gradient will be tightened between the Piedmont Trough and offshore high pressure through early Thursday. As Thursday progresses a front will drop down into the area and push this gradient further out to sea. SCA currently out through WEdnesday evening, possibly in need of a slight extension. Waves will be predominantly wind-driven as opposed to swell driven. The front never cleanly pushes through the area keeping the late period winds southwesterly but with much lowers speeds allowing seas to abate.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Heat Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-024-033- 054-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.