textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 00Z terminal forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A brief respite from the excessive heat through Wednesday before unseasonably hot weather returns Thursday and Friday.

2) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A brief respite from the excessive heat through Wednesday before unseasonably hot weather returns Thursday and Friday.

DESCRIPTION... A cold front inland will push toward the coast tonight before stalling and shifting back northwest Tue and then dissipating Wed as Atlantic high pressure builds more west into the area. This will lead to a nice break in the heat/humidity Tue before more summerlike conditions begin to return again Wed. Thu should be the hottest overall with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for most of the area, especially over SE NC and coastal SC. By Friday, should see increasing rain chances from tropical moisture moving into the area from the southwest which would keep temps/heat indices down a bit. Thus, the risk for a Heat Advisory looks to be very low, especially inland. However, it is worth noting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast late week as much depends on the timing of a cold front potential low pressure system moving through. As of now, cooler and drier air then returns for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides along with some lingering positive tidal anomalies will likely lead to minor tidal flooding during evening high tide cycles into mid week, especially along the lower Cape Fear River.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Overall expect VFR conditions across the area this valid taf period. With an old front in the area, expect somewhat variable, light winds. Sea breeze should result in more south to southeast winds nearer the coast in the early evening tonight and afternoon Tuesday. Any isolated showers should be light enough to not produce much in the way of sub-VFR vsby but there is a small chance for MVFR cigs coastal areas, especially southern terminals.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR thru Thu although a wavering frontal boundary over the area into Wed will cause some restrictions at times, mainly Tue night into early Wed. An approaching stronger cold front along with tropical moisture will bring a moderate to high risk for restrictions starting later Thu and continuing into early Sat.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday...A cold front will linger near the coast into early Wed before Atlantic high pressure regains a foothold. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system late week should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions and potential gales, mainly in the offshore waters north of Cape Fear.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.