textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated but overall there were no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Generally above normal temperatures through the week with no appreciable improvement in drought conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Generally above normal temperatures through the week with no appreciable improvement in drought conditions.

DESCRIPTION...Low-level Atlantic high pressure will extend westward across the area today while a lee-side trough develops inland. Limited moisture/forcing should keep it generally rain- free thru tonight, although can't completely rule out a shower/storm this aftn/early eve, especially near the coast along the sea breeze and west of I-95 near the trough. Relative humidity falling into the mid to upper 30s along with the slightly elevated winds and continued dry conditions will continue to yield an enhanced fire danger across SE NC as per state fire officials.

A weak cold front moving into the area Mon should bring at least isolated showers/storms in the aftn/eve, with the potential for scattered precip especially across inland portions of NC. Should see heat indices peaking up near 100 degrees for most inland locales.

Expect a bit of a break in the heat/humidity Tue behind the cold front before returning Wed thru the rest of the week. Heat indices should get back close to 100 degrees away from the coast starting Thu. Mostly expecting low rain chances mid week before rain chances possibly tick up a bit late week depending on whether high pressure aloft weakens. Overall, the severe storm and flash flood risks seems pretty low thru the period, as well as the potential for any appreciable widespread drought relief.

AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in predominately VFR conditions thru the 06Z TAF period. Winds mainly light, except gusting to near 20-25 kt around the coast this afternoon as the sea breeze pushes inland.

Extended Forecast...VFR to generally prevail thru Thu. Low to moderate risk for restrictions from MVFR/IFR cigs Mon night into early Tue behind a weak cold front and again Tue/Wed nights (mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO). Restrictions from some showers/storms are also possible each day, mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO during the aftn/eve.

MARINE

Sunday through Thursday Night...Atlantic high pressure will extend westward over the local waters into Mon before a weak cold front moves in from the north later Mon and then proceeds south through the area Mon night. High pressure will then return from the north before shifting eastward and remaining centered offshore thru mid week. Although it will be gusting near 25 kt this aftn/eve, mainly north of Cape Fear, we don't anticipate the need for a Small Craft Advisory.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.