textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC.

2) Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Additional rainfall today through early Saturday to only make a slight dent into the ongoing D1 Moderate to D2 Severe drought across SE NC and NE SC.

A nearly stationary cold front draped ENE-WSW across the ILM CWA early this morning, will slowly make some progress to the SE-SSE today, pushing off the mainland by midday and temporary stalling just offshore and parallel to the coasts this evening. Forcing in the vicinity of the front and weak impulses aloft to keep the threat of pcpn ongoing up until the CFP. This will be our best bet for accumulating rainfall with showery pcpn activity. Later this aftn thru tonight, pcpn becomes more stratiform and light in nature, with mainly patchy light rain or drizzle possible, with best chances closer to the coast. Decent 5H s/w trof to push across the Carolinas tonight resulting in low pressure developing along the stalled front just offshore that may throw back some pcpn along the coast as the low intensifies as it books off to the NE, away from the U.S. mainland. Rainfall amounts from the overnight thru Sat morning will range from 0.25 to 0.50 with isolated hier amounts to 0.75 inches across southernmost portions of the CWA. This will only make a very slight dent within the ongoing D1 and D2 drought across the FA as the 2026 growing season approaches. Bare in mind, the latest 6-10 and 8-14 day pcpn outlooks only exhibit below to near normal rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unsettled marine conditions expected early next week. See Marine discussion below.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

A nearly stationary cold front near the Carolina coast will slowly drop southward tonight. Warm advective flow has maintained VFR overnight, but as winds turn northeasterly this morning, IFR/LIFR should become dominant. Overrunning showers will solidify restrictions through this evening. Showers will come to an end this evening, but low clouds are likely to continue through the end of the period.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions are likely to continue on Saturday morning. VFR conditions should return by Saturday afternoon. Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. VFR returns Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Friday Night...The sfc pg continues to relax as the overnight progresses, resulting in SW winds diminishing to 10 kt or less. This relaxed gradient will persist thru the remainder of the fcst period. The CFP will occur during daylight Fri, with SW winds 10 kt or less becoming N-NE around 10 kt. Sfc low pressure to develop along the cold front off the Carolina Coasts this evening and race northeast away from the mainland by sunrise Sat. This may result in NE winds increasing slightly to around 15 kt tonight. Seas have already responded by subsiding below SCA thresholds once those SW winds began diminishing. This trend will continue thru this evening, dropping to 2 to 3 ft, but may increase to 2 to 4 ft for the NC waters due to the deepening but departing low pressure by Sat. Wind driven waves to dominate with a fresh or pseudo SE-S swell at 6 to 7 second periods dominating.

Saturday through Tuesday... Winds grow light on Saturday as much of the Southeast is between high pressure in the west- central Atlantic and a stronger high diving into the Great Lakes. The latter leads to backdoor cold frontal passage Sunday night. This sets up a wedge setting up over land while a coastal trough develops on the eastern periphery of the wedge. This will set up a fairly localized but strong pressure gradient between the two. Sunday night into Monday will present some very unsettled conditions. Winds ramp up to Advisory levels first with seas following suit. The agitated wind waves will not be alone as the strong high passing by well to our north (crossing New England States) establishes a long easterly fetch into the Carolinas that will bring increasing swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.