textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic high pressure will bring unseasonably cold weather through tonight with dangerously low wind chills early this morning.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Arctic high pressure will bring unseasonably cold weather through tonight with dangerously low wind chills early this morning.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Unseasonably cold temps will continue through tonight as Arctic high pressure builds in. Wind chills as low as around 14 degrees are expected through around daybreak, mainly across SE NC where a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect until 9 AM. Otherwise, highs today will mainly be in the lower to mid 40s with lows tonight generally back into the low to mid 20s. However, the lack of much wind should keep wind chills above Cold Weather Advisory criteria (15 degrees) tonight, especially away from the normally colder parts of inland Pender County.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions with no significant impacts expected through the 06Z/08 TAF period.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions from shallow fog could develop late Mon night and again Tue night. Intermittent sea fog could also impact the coastal terminals Tuesday night and Wednesday prior to the cold frontal passage which could bring some restrictions due to rain/low clouds Wed/Thu.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Building high pressure will bring improving marine conditions which will fall below Small Craft Advisory levels by daybreak.

Monday through Thursday... The first half of the period will be characterized by light winds and manageable seas in the 2-3 ft range. This is due to the post Arctic frontal high sinking gradually into the Bahamas keeping the pressure gradient locally quite relaxed. After a brief window of NE winds the light flow will turn to the SW as the center of the high sinks south of our latitude. The wind wave energy should be so minimal that on a ENE backswell will remain and even that should be in a state of decay. A cold front on Wednesday will be of only moderate strength especially compared to the recent frontal passages this month. A minor uptick of winds and seas can be expected later in the period along with a frontally induced veering in direction (it's also tough to rule out a 4 ft wave appearing along the outer half of the NC fcst zones). This should steepen wave faces even as their overall height remains relatively unchanged.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087- 096-099-105>110. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.