textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Watch/Warning/Advisory section for recently issued Beach Hazards Statement for a strong longshore current north of Cape Fear Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures above normal this week with isolated diurnal storms through Wednesday becoming more numerous by Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures above normal this week with isolated diurnal storms through Wednesday becoming more numerous by Friday.

Flat ridging aloft remains in place through mid-week with only a slight hint of troughing aloft Tue as a shortwave crosses the area in the morning. Subsidence helps keep temperatures above normal with resulting cap/mid-level dry air hindering deeper convection. The timing of the shortwave Tue is less than ideal for storm development and will enhance subsidence in the afternoon, which coupled with post wave westerly flow, will contribute to potentially warmer highs and a pinned sea breeze. Cold front associated with Mid-Atlantic low crosses the area Tue night. Convection along the front will be weakening as it moves into the local area, a combination of the loss of heating and the unfavorable environment. Front is likely to be the best chance for rainfall during the first half of the week, but not expecting widespread coverage.

Ridge briefly builds back Wed before another shortwave trough weakens the ridge a bit more. Temperatures remain above normal, but the trough will have a little more success as far as storms go. Coverage will still be limited by dry air on Thu, but Fri a slug of deeper moisture arrives, bringing the best rain chances for the week. Ridging then returns and strengthens over the weekend, pushing temperatures well into the 90s with some indications of possibly upper 90s for the start of next week. Increased subsidence will keep the weekend dry.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

00Z Mon thru 00Z Tue: High confidence in mostly VFR conditions. There is a very low risk of MVFR/IFR ceilings/vsbys late tonight (mainly at LBT/FLO) as well as showers/storms all terminals Mon aftn/eve.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR. MVFR/IFR possible with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms each day, especially Tue/Fri.

MARINE

Flow over the waters transitions to southerly this afternoon and remains southerly through Tue, with an increase in speeds Mon/Tue. A weak front pushes south of the waters Tue night into Wed, leading to northeast to east flow for much of Wed. Modest northeast surge behind the front with a brief period of near 15 kt sustained possible. The combination of the high to the north shifting east and sea breeze development due to inland warming sets up light southerly flow for Thu. Highest seas will be later Mon, widespread 3 ft with occasional 4 ft, and Tue, 3-4 ft with 4 ft becoming widespread late. Seas decrease Tue night following the passage of the front. Otherwise seas will be 2-3 ft. Southerly wave remains dominant through the week with period running 5-7 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...None. MARINE...None.