textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Watch/Warning/Advisory section updated for latest headline changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Nor'easter to bring a slew of marine/beach hazards into the weekend.

2) After scattered showers end today, the coolest airmass since early June will build across the Carolinas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Nor'easter to bring a slew of marine/beach hazards into the weekend.

A nor'easter developing off the Outer Banks will intensify and only move very slowly northward into the weekend. The gradient between this system and high pressure to the west will bring an increasingly lengthy and strong northerly fetch. Water will be increasingly piled into the coast as a result. Pair this with tides that are astronomically large anyway due to a full moon the stage is set for coastal flooding for several tide cycles, the largest of which will be this evening and Saturday evening at which time water levels could be a full foot above flood stage. There is a little less confidence in how large the morning tides will get but they do approach flood thresholds esp in NC. Large waves will lead to minor beach erosion at NC beaches, SC beaches should be shielded enough to prevent much erosion, if any at all. The High Surf Advisory has been extended to 12Z, waves still falling slightly short of criteria but the marine wind fields should keep increasing tonight. In addition to NC's large breaking waves dangerous rip currents and long shore currents will also make for beach hazards for several days.

KEY MESSAGE 2...After scattered showers end today, the coolest airmass since early June will build across the Carolinas.

Upper level low has been slow to move across the area today bringing some beneficial rainfall. The low will in time move across and offshore and team up with another mid level trough to bring a brisk northeast flow and much cooler temperatures to the region. By Friday morning lows should be in the middle 50s or so.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in any lingering MVFR conditions to end overnight as the mid- level low shifts east of the area allowing drier air to move in. Any lingering rain should be on the light side and not impact vsbys much, if any.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through early next week.

MARINE

Coastal waters headlines are essentially locked in and need no changes. It appears the mid level low trudging across the area is a bit slower which will later enhance the winds with phasing offshore but gale ending time still seem reasonable followed by strong small craft conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents through Friday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for NCZ108. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Friday through Friday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-280-284. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.