textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for coastal zones and the Lower Cape Fear River for the morning high tide. High rip risk now in effect for New Hanover county beaches today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A dry cold front will move south across the region tonight; followed by near normal temperatures, breezy conditions and marine headlines.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A dry cold front will move south across the region tonight; followed by near normal temperatures, breezy conditions and marine headlines.

Weak surface high pressure and ridging aloft will lead to one more day with temperatures above normal and light winds. A dry cold front will move south across the area tonight. Northeast winds will increase following the passage of the front, after midnight. High pressure building down the coast this weekend will drop temperatures near normal. Gusty winds Sat decrease in the afternoon as winds aloft weaken and drop off in the evening due to loss of heating/mixing. Another northeast surge arrives late Sat night leading to an increase in gusts again on Sun.

What had looked like a potential rain event for the start of next week has turned dry. Most of the guidance has now backed off on rain for the local area. The GFS is stubbornly holding onto rainfall Sun night into Mon, but this setup/pattern is typically one where the areas ends up dry. Gulf Coast convection in conjunction with a weak shortwave lifting northeast through the OH Valley almost always leads to little to no rainfall for the eastern Carolinas. The convection to the southwest will blossom off the FL East Coast and then travel northeast, passing just offshore.

Rain chances the middle of next week look better, but still have low confidence. Some big disagreements between the GFS/EC/CMC with the evolution of the pattern aloft and sharp 5h trough vs cutoff low. Cutoff lows are notoriously difficult to pin down, especially 6 or 7 days out.

Despite decreased winds tidal anomalies are still running around 1 foot, which has once again required issuance of Coastal Flood Advisories for the area, the coast and the Lower Cape Fear River, for the midday-ish high tide.

AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Currently VFR across the area, but inland from the coast calm winds along with increased boundary layer moisture seem destined to generate MVFR/IFR fog and ceilings. Best chances will be at LBT, although all sites will likely see at least MVFR fog. Abundant dry air aloft will lead to any MVFR/IFR conditions rapidly transitioning to VFR once the sun comes up and a bit of mixing develops. All sites VFR by 14Z with light northeast winds today, becoming more onshore for coastal terminal in the afternoon following the passage of a weak sea breeze. Potential for MVFR/IFR visibility and ceilings late tonight prior to the arrival of the backdoor cold front. Front should reach the area 06Z-08Z. However, have low confidence in tonight's MVFR/IFR potential at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday. Potential for MVFR ceilings Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Weak high pressure today will be reinforced by the passage of a backdoor cold front tonight into Saturday. Winds may exceed Small Craft thresholds across the coastal waters and seas will exceed 6 ft resulting in another long duration Small Craft event. Much uncertainty exists by early next week. However, maritime conditions will most likely not be favorable through Tuesday given the resiliency of the fetch. While 4-7 ft seas will be common across the coastal waters seas will be steeper offshore aided by the fetch direction and the Gulf Stream. Increasing chances for showers and possible a few thunderstorms, especially for the offshore waters early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 4 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.