textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Cooler temperatures are expected today and will be quickly replaced with a warming trend through the remainder of the week. The next chance of rain likely won't arrive until next weekend, but uncertainty remains high at this time.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Cold air advection will be underway for all but the very end of the period, possibly terminating around sunrise Tuesday. This will bring seasonably cool temperatures this afternoon with highs in the mid 60s. Dewpoints will also be dropping today in deep layer NW flow, PW values dropping to 0.3 inches or lower. High pressure builds in tonight, centered to our north but with a ridge axis extending into the region. Radiational cooling is expected, though how idealized is up for questioning. Forecast soundings do show a surface-based inversion but it's strength is seemingly tempered, possibly by a little bit of cirrus level moisture as very broad upper jet develops across the Gulf States. Did go a bit below guidance but not as much as if idealized cooling was expected.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure slides offshore on Tuesday as a shortwave progresses eastward across the Ohio Valley and southern Appalachians. Low pressure trailing the shortwave will produce clouds and showers across the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday night. Southerly flow ahead of the mid level shortwave will bring some weak moisture advection to the area on Tuesday evening. This is likely to be insufficient for rain chances across the northern tier of our forecast area, but isolated showers may be present as far south as NC-24 in central and eastern NC.

Zonal flow aloft will accompany weak ridging over the southeastern US on Wednesday. Southerly surface flow and westerlies above will provide a consistent source of warm air advection. Afternoon highs should warm quite nicely with mid and upper 70s likely across the region. Remaining mild overnight (despite the dry air mass and good cooling potential) with lows in the low to mid 50s.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Dry and warm weather continues late this week primarily due to a mid level ridge just to our south. A developing low over the central US will begin to move eastward this weekend and will bring the next chance of rain. Uncertainty remains high with regards to the timing and position of this low. Cluster analyses highlight differences in a weakening shortwave as the main culprit of forecast uncertainty at this time. For now, the low end rain chances appear plausible as there could also be a chance of localized showers near the coast both Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR as cool high pressure builds. Post- frontal high pressure will bring a NW wind today that will collapse to light and variable tonight. It will be too dry for any fog development.

Extended Outlook....VFR conditions should continue through the period.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Winds will be NW today following last evening frontal passage. And although steep low level lapse rates will develop for some gustiness the overall boundary layer wind fields will be weak enough to preclude any headlines. As the high's center moves just north of the area tonight winds decrease dramatically. Spectral plots show no significant swell energy with all wave periods sub-7 seconds.

Tuesday through Friday... Pressure patterns will be generally weak over the next several days. Light and variable winds turn southerly on Tuesday with an area of low pressure passing to our north. Westerly winds develop on Wednesday as high pressure builds to our southeast. Light and variable winds on Thursday will give way to southerly return flow on Friday ahead of a develop low over the central US. Onshore flow on Friday may be accompanied by a few showers and an enhanced sea breeze with periodic gusts during the afternoon. Seas generally 1-2 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.