textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made with the latest forecast update. Created a separate Climate section for possible record highs Wednesday through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs Wednesday through Friday.

- 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs Wednesday through Friday.

Latest surface analysis shows a surface high lingering near the LA/MS/AL Gulf coast. This surface ridge is associated with the upper ridge located in basically the same place. This ridge will gradually poke northward towards ArkLaMiss by Wednesday, before elongating into the Southeast and western Atlantic by Thursday. Upper heights and thicknesses soar, allowing for widespread subsidence, which keeps the forecast dry.

500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology along KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in at least the mid 80s expected today through Friday. Record-tying or record- breaking high temperatures are in play here. Please see Climate section below for possible record highs.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend.

Trade in the shorts and sweat towels for flannel and boots, for the famous fall cold front is coming. A trough out of Alberta and Saskatchewan amplifies by the time it enters the upper Midwest Thursday, reaching the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region by Friday. The jet streak bottoms out near the NC/VA border as it sweeps through Friday night, sending the heat ridge offshore for good, and sweeping a cold front through the area. Guidance continues to show an overall lack of moisture with this front, and should mostly manifest in mid-to-high cloud cover Friday evening. Perhaps the far northern and eastern portions of the forecast area will try to squeeze out a drop or two during Friday night lights. Westerly winds pick up ahead of the front, veering to the north after the front moves through in the middle of the night. Don't be surprised if the wind stirs you awake Friday night into Saturday morning. CAA already kicks off, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s.

By Saturday, the cold front has raced well offshore, while Canadian air blows into the area like the leaves themselves. Saturday looks cool and blustery, with highs only in the mid- to-upper 60s with a stiff wind out of the north that may gust up to 30 mph at times.

Open up the windows Saturday night, as winds will come down to 5-10 mph overnight, and crispy lows in the lower 40s inland to near 50 at the coast.

Highs Sunday look nearly identical, with winds only gusting up to 15-18 mph this time. Welcome to true, Southern fall.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The only weather concern over the coming 24 hours is a moderate potential for ground fog overnight affecting the KILM and KCRE airports. Today's seabreeze brought in a shallow layer of Atlantic moisture and observed dewpoints at 7 PM are several degrees higher than at this time yesterday. Visibility could begin to slip by 06z, but the better potential for visibility issues will be 08-12z.

Extended Outlook...MVFR ground fog is possible again early Friday morning along the coast, otherwise dry air should ensure VFR conditions. Northerly wind gusts up to 35 knots are possible Friday night into Saturday morning behind a strong cold front.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Benign winds and seas through at least Friday morning. Gentle variable breeze will veer to the SW by late tonight, remaining that way through Friday morning. Seas at 1-3 ft at first will drop a bit more Wednesday into Thursday. Forecast stays dry.

Pattern starts to change throughout the day Friday, as gradient winds increase significantly ahead of a cold front. Moderate breeze builds in by midday Friday, becoming a fresh to strong breeze by the evening right before the front passes. Front moves through overnight Friday night, allowing the winds to quickly veer to the N, gradually veering even more to the NE throughout the day Saturday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak Saturday, ranging from 3-5 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, to 6-8 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory conditions appear to be a slam dunk Friday night into Saturday. Certainly cannot rule out gale conditions, particularly over the offshore waters 20-60 nm out.

CLIMATE

Current forecast vs. records: Wednesday, October 14: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 87F (Record of 89F in 1928) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 83F (86F in 1959) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (88F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (91F in 1928)

Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 88F (Record of 88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (89F in 2021,1985) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 88F (91F in 1919)

Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 88F (Record of 87F in 2021,2018,1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 89F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 89F (92F in 1925)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.