textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry to start the period with rain returning Wednesday into Wednesday night and again late week through at least the weekend.

High pressure will shift offshore allowing a warm front to lift north through the area today bringing unseasonably warm temperatures near 70 most locales. A cold front will then move through Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing some mainly light rain, generally up to around a quarter of an inch. High pressure will then return with dry and cooler weather through late week with low rain chances Friday through Saturday evening. Rain chances will then likely increase Saturday night through at least Sunday night as a more potent storm system impacts the area. Although there remains some uncertainty in the evolution of this system the risk for any hazardous weather appears to be quite low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence for VFR conditions continues through the period as lingering dry air largely precludes the formation of fog tonight. However, with clear skies and calm or light winds overlapping with considerably higher dew points than the last few nights, the possibility for shallow fog still exists in favored locations near swamps, creeks, and rivers early this morning. Any patchy/shallow fog will quickly dissipate after sunrise as strong heating mixes down southwesterly winds aloft. A period of gusty winds around 15-20 kts may occur during peak heating (18-21Z) as the boundary layer deepens, but a lingering subsidence inversion may be strong enough to preclude mixing these stronger winds down. Otherwise, the arrival of these stronger southwesterly winds will bring in a short window of marginal LLWS at KFLO early this morning before near-surface winds pick up. All sites should anticipate LLWS due to WSW flow near the end of the period as a cold front approaches.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions due to low clouds are possible late tonight. Intermittent sea fog could also impact the coastal terminals tonight into early Wednesday prior to a cold frontal passage. The front could also bring some restrictions from rain and/or low clouds on Wednesday. VFR is expected to return Wednesday night and dominate through the end of the week with restrictions possible again on Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Offshore high pressure will cause winds to settle on southwesterly today and increase to around 15-20 kts tonight. Seas will respond to this increase in winds with 1-3 ft waves this morning rising to 3-5 ft tonight. Gusts to around 25kts and seas up to 6 ft are possible in the outer waters near 20nmi southeast of Cape Fear, but too little of the coastal water zones around Cape Fear are included for a Small Craft Advisory across an entire zone. Nevertheless, small craft operators should use caution, especially if venturing 10-20 nmi southeast of Cape Fear. Seas will consist of southwesterly wind waves and lingering 1-3 ft easterly swells with a period of 12-13 sec.

Wednesday through Saturday night...No significant concerns thru the period. There is a low risk for marginal SCA conditions (gusts around 25 kt and 6 ft seas) Wed and again late Sat night. Also, there is a low risk for sea fog Wed due to a slightly moister air mass moving in ahead of the cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.