textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 12Z aviation forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through early next week. A rather weak coastal trough and a cold front won't be able to muster much precip through tonight. Dry W/NW flow will then be in place Thursday and Friday with temps near to below normal. The only minor concern Thu/Fri will be low relative humidities dipping to around 30% (possibly lower near critical levels) each afternoon, but fortunately winds shouldn't be high enough to warrant an appreciable fire danger. A warming trend then ensues over the weekend through early next week with decent confidence in increasing upper- level heights along the eastern seaboard with forecast highs running well above normal (near 90 to lower 90s) across inland areas. Fortunately, moisture levels should not be high enough to support max heat indices much higher than the air temps, although those sensitive to heat should still use caution as the NWS HeatRisk is in the Moderate category (level 3 of 5) each day. Refer to our local heat webpage for more heat forecast/safety info...weather.gov/ilm/heat.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR. Any stray showers during the day and tonight look too light to impact terminals. Highest chances for restrictions will be 06-12Z but with still some uncertainty. Winds will be light ahead of a front tonight which could lead to MVFR fog development. East winds will become SE with the afternoon seabreeze with SW flow becoming NW 06-12Z with the frontal passage.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure through the day with 10kt easterly winds. Winds will swing around to the SW late tonight ahead of a cold front, becoming offshore towards the end of the period as it pushes through. Seas 3-4 ft.

Thursday through Sunday night...High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay mainly 3 ft or less.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.