textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Scattered thunderstorms will continue until sunset east of I-95, with marginal severe risk still in place primarily for isolated strong winds, before a cold front moves offshore early this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No significant weather systems over the next several days with increasing heat over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: No significant weather systems over the next several days with increasing heat over the weekend.

Following today's rainfall, the remainder of the week is expected to be dry aside from scattered to numerous showers late Wednesday into Wednesday night associated with a weak cold front and upr-level trough. The main vort max will stay off to the north however, keeping the heaviest rain there as well, but there is still enough lift and moisture to warrant 50-70% PoPs. Not much of a cool down following the frontal passage Wednesday night, with highs still in the upr 70s most areas Thursday and Friday. A warming trend then ensues over the weekend with most guidance showing upr-level height rises along the eastern seaboard...latest forecast is for highs in the low 90s inland areas Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Scattered thunderstorms through sunset may impact coastal terminals through 22-23z, with gusty winds and low visibilities, and have included PROB30s for ILM, CRE, and MYR. Cold front currently to our northwest will move across our area through late afternoon and offshore early this evening, with winds turning northerly behind the front. Gusts to 20 kts possible through this evening. An area of low- level moisture is forecasted to move down the NC coastline this evening into early overnight hours, bringing MVFR cigs to ILM and possibly down to CRE and MYR. Widespread VFR conditions expected by 4z tonight, with prevailing VFR through rest of TAF period. Winds turn northeasterly overnight, veering to easterly by Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Forecast... VFR should prevail through early Wednesday. Potential for flight restrictions increases with another cold front late Wednesday. VFR should return Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... Cold front currently approaching from the northwest will move offshore this evening, with gusty north- northeast winds developing behind the front. Winds 20-25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts will be possible early tonight, mainly between 0z and 6z for 0-20nm waters and 0z and 14z for 20-60nm offshore waters. Winds turn easterly and weaken to 15-20 kts by Tuesday afternoon. Seas will increase this evening into overnight, with 2-3 ft seas right before sunset increasing to 4-6 ft by Tuesday morning, with 6-9 ft seas forecasted for 20-60nm waters. Seas will slowly lower during the day Tuesday as the ENE fresh swell gradually weakens. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for local coastal waters tonight through tomorrow afternoon. Scattered thunderstorms, with potential for strong winds, will move offshore and impact the waters through sunset.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Following the SCA that ends late Tuesday, sub-SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of the week. Sfc high pressure will be over the waters much of the time, aside from a cold fropa Wednesday night which is only followed by weak CAA and winds far short of criteria on Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256.