textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat near record levels likely late week.

2) Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat near record levels likely late week.

Strengthening high pressure aloft is expected later this week which will bring above normal temperatures near record levels, especially for the holiday weekend. Heat Advisories are possible as early as Thursday but more likely starting Friday for heat indices surpassing 105 degrees. Extreme Heat Warnings are also not out of the question, mainly for the weekend, if heat indices reach 110+ degrees.

Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

An area of low pressure is expected to form along a front off the southeast United States coast toward mid week, mainly well southeast of SE NC & NE SC. The NHC is highlighting a low chance for it to acquire tropical/subtropical characteristics as it likely meanders for a while before drifting southwest toward the coast. No significant direct impacts to SE NC & NE SC are expected at this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low CIGs streaming in on northerly flow to affect ILM and in a more transient manner LBT through about 13 or 14Z. Otherwise generally VFR today with light NE flow. Sea breeze thunderstorms generally confined to NC from midday and afternoon could lead to short-lived restrictions at ILM. Fog may develop tonight especially should rainfall materialize.

06Z Tue thru Fri...Mostly VFR. Low clouds/fog possible late tonight and again Tue night. Generally rain-free starting Tue with just low chances inland this weekend, especially Sun.

MARINE

Monday through Friday... A cold front will move through the area today with high pressure from the north prevailing thru mid week. Weak low pressure could form offshore along the stalling cold front well south of the area early this week, with a low chance of it becoming tropical/subtropical in nature. The low is likely to drift generally SW staying well away from the local waters later in the week. Wind/waves are not expected to reach Small Craft Advisory levels through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.