textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included 18Z Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Cold front moves across tonight, with scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front late this afternoon through this evening.

- 2) Temperatures near or a few degrees below normal Monday through Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at this time.

- 3) Temperatures on the rise Friday through next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Temperatures on the rise Friday through next weekend.

Surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast late in the week, and a mid-level ridge will develop overhead for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will swing back above normal Friday, then continue to warm Saturday and Sunday, reaching around 80 degrees away from the immediate coast.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Scattered thunderstorms will continue to develop across the area through 0z, with coverage expanding to coastal areas in the next 1-2 hours, followed by predominantly light rain until the cold front moves offshore around 4-6z. Besides for brief drops in visibility as thunderstorms move over terminals, stronger storms may produce wind gusts around 40-45 kts through 0z. A few hours of MVFR cigs is forecasted just ahead of the front, between 0z and 5z, primarily for southeast NC terminals. Scattered high clouds daytime Monday. Gusty southwest winds through this evening will quickly turn northerly behind the front, gradually weakening during the day Monday as high pressure ridge builds in.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through Friday.

MARINE

Through Monday...SSW winds 15-20 kts, with occasional gusts to 25 kts, will prevail over the local coastal waters until a cold front moves offshore shortly after midnight. Seas 4-5 ft ahead of the front due to combination of 4 ft S fresh swell and 3 ft ESE 8 sec swell. Scattered thunderstorms will impact the waters late this afternoon until late this evening, with potential for winds gusts around 35 kts within stronger storms. Winds turn northerly quickly behind the front, sustained 15-20 kts between 6z and midday Monday. High pressure briefly moving across will weaken the northeasterly winds Monday afternoon and evening. Seas 3-4 ft early Monday, with a few 5 footers in outer coastal waters, will lower to 2-4 ft late Monday, combination of persisting ESE swell and fresh NE swell.

Monday night through Thursday...High pressure will extend across the Mid-Atlantic Monday night, resulting in persistent NE flow across the waters, although speeds will remain below advisory thresholds through the daytime hours Tuesday. The NE flow will intensify late Tuesday as broad high pressure moves across the Great Lakes and New England states, strengthening the gradient over the waters as a weak low several hundred miles off the SE coast moves NE. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop Tuesday evening, likely continuing through the week in persistent NE flow.

CLIMATE

After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3 are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence.

CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of the month.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.