textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 06Z aviation forecast. Key messages largely unchanged.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)Today will bring advisory level heat index values to parts of the area and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

- 2) Small Craft Advisory winds over the water today into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Today will bring advisory level heat index values to parts of the area and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hot weather returns today and heat index values should reach 105 degrees over northern and eastern portions of the area so a heat advisory will be issued for today. The remnants of Arthur will interact with a front to bring good chances of rain, mainly tonight into Friday with a small chance of severe weather. Finally, due to breezy conditions today and dry fuels a statement for increased fire danger will be issued for our NC counties.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small Craft Advisory winds over the waters late tonight into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... See marine section below.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Big story this valid TAF period will be the winds which will be from the southwest and increase the rest of tonight into daylight hours today from 5 to 10 KT presently to 10 to 15 KT with gusts of 20 to 25 by about midday. On the plus side, it looks like conditions will be mainly VFR until the potential arrival of scattered showers and storms aft about 19Z.

Extended Forecast...an approaching strong cold front along with potential low pressure accompanied with tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night thru early Sat due to more numerous showers/storms. VFR expected later Sat thru Mon.

MARINE

Winds remain out of the SW in the near term, getting bolstered today into Friday by the approach of a cold front. Within this period of increased winds there will be some hard-to-time fluctuations where part or all of the area could fall sub-advisory with winds. Friday night brings a cold FROPA and a wind shift to the N that will be quite brief before veering begins. Swell energy through most of the entire period remains offshore keeping dominant wave periods 6-7 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ055-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.