textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Gale warning is cancelled and small craft advisory issued.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

2) Small craft advisory all nearshore waters into this evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Progressive mid-level pattern develops for next week with strong ridging just south of the area. The location of the ridge will result in temperatures a few degrees above normal, but the ridge is not particularly strong and forecast soundings show only weak subsidence over the region. Tue looks like the warmest day of the week with potential for mid 90s in a few areas. Winds will be more westerly, keeping the sea breeze pinned to the coast while also adding in a slight downslope component. Isolated diurnal convection returns to the forecast Mon but coverage increases Tue with weak front, more like a trough, moving into the area. Front ends up stalling across or just south of the region, lingering through Fri. Scattered convection and cloud cover will temper highs a bit Wed-Fri. instability.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small craft advisory all nearshore waters into this evening.

See marine section below.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Widespread VFR for the rest of the afternoon with cloud cover gradually decreasing. Isolated to scattered evening storms will develop along a cold from moving in from the northwest. Coverage will be limited by lingering cloud cover and the resulting lack of instability. Best chance will be across northeast SC where skies are trying to clear a bit. Latest high resolution convective models have storms in the vicinity of FLO/LBT 02-04Z with the line weakening as it moves toward the coast, arriving around 06Z. Confidence in coverage of storms is pretty low. The extent of late afternoon clearing/heating will determine how much instability is present when the pre-frontal convergence arrives this evening. A solution where little to no convection develops across the Pee Dee region is almost as probable as one where several storms develop.

Front pushes south overnight with somewhat cooler and drier high pressure building in from the north. Once any storms come to an end VFR will return and continue through the TAF period.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Sunday. Isolated MVFR/IFR possible with scattered afternoon storms Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Dropped the gale warning in favor of a short duration SCA for all waters. Headline runs through 00Z, but expect to see conditions drop below advisory headline criteria before 00Z and an early cancellation seems likely. Cold front moving in from the north tonight will bring about a short period of north to northeast flow Sat before winds veer to southwest during Sun as the high shifts east. Lack of strong gradient/cold advection tonight will prevent any significant surge and allow for gradual improvement in marine conditions. Southwest flow around 10 kt Sun increases to 15-20 kt Mon/Tue, a combination of inland heating and the approach of another weak front. Front drops south over the waters Tue night into Wed with speeds dropping under 15 kt and direction backing from northwest in the morning to southeast in the afternoon. Seas currently 4-8 ft will gradually subside through the evening and overnight, ending up a solid 3 ft Sat morning and 2 ft or less Sun. Seas then start to build Mon into Tue in response to increasing winds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.