textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation for 00Z terminal forecasts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

2) Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

3) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles thru Wednesday, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and humidity likely for parts of the area Thursday.

DESCRIPTION... Atlantic high pressure at the surface along with high pressure aloft will lead to unseasonably hot and humid conditions Thu with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for most of the area, especially over SE NC east of I-95 and coastal SC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Severe storms possible late Thursday through Friday.

DESCRIPTION...An approaching cold front could lead to some severe storms late Thu thru Fri. The main severe threat is damaging winds but tornadoes will also be possible, especially if an area of low pressure (currently Potential Tropical Cyclone 1) also moves through the area. However, confidence is low due to uncertainty regarding the strength/track/timing of the possible low pressure system.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles thru Wednesday, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides along with persistent positive tidal anomalies will lead to minor tidal flooding during the evening high tide cycle this evening along the entire coast, including the lower reaches of the Cape Fear River. Minor tidal flooding is possible again during the Wednesday evening high tide cycle, mainly along the lower Cape Fear River.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Despite current VFR conditions, expect to see deteriorating flying conditions overnight due to the development of low clouds and scattered showers. The thunder threat remains too low to mention for now. Have maintained no worse than MVFR cigs for now but IFR cigs are possible late tonight into early Wed, mainly at KLBT/KFLO. Conditions should improve aft 18Z Wednesday.

Extended Forecast...expect mainly VFR Wed night thru Thu. An approaching stronger cold front along with a potential low pressure system and tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night into Sat due to more plentiful showers/storms. VFR expected Sat night/Sun.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday...An inland cold front will dissipate as Atlantic high pressure takes over starting tonight. A decent pressure gradient will result in wind gusts near Small Craft Advisory levels at times thru Wed night. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system late week should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions to the nearshore waters and potential for gales in the offshore waters, mainly north of Cape Fear. However, confidence remains low as much depends on the strength/timing of possible low pressure.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108-110. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.