textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated rain chances are on tap this afternoon through Tuesday with temperatures cooling to near to slightly below normal levels by Tuesday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

2) Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated rain chances are on tap this afternoon through Tuesday with temperatures cooling to near to slightly below normal levels by Tuesday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

A cold front dropping through the area this afternoon will stall over the southeast U.S. through Tuesday while energy in the mid levels passes through at times. This will result in enhanced rain chances into Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

A warming trend returns Wednesday and forecasted temps are back above normal by Thursday as a ridge builds over the Southeast. We could see enough heat and humidity to send apparent temperatures to or over 105 degrees later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Showers and storms are departing the NC terminals at this time with a return to VFR expected within an hour or less of the rain ending. Low confidence exists for additional showers overnight, which could bring brief MVFR restrictions, but this seems unlikely given the extent of cool, stable air that today's storms have put down. Otherwise, given the rain that has fallen and a weak cold front settling into the area, the threat for fog and low stratus appears high enough to warrant inclusion in the TAFs, although the timing carries low to moderate confidence, and will need refinement. Another round of showers and storms is expected tomorrow afternoon and evening, bringing a renewed threat of temporary IFR to LIFR restrictions in heavy rain.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions Monday evening and on Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

South to southwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon will become more varied tonight and Monday as a front drops into the area before stalling. Winds remain generally less than 10 kts into Tuesday and Wednesday, and seas around 2-4 ft, highest outside 20 NM. WSW winds increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts for 20-60nm coastal waters, Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.