textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Today's severe weather threat has been moved well to our south.

KEY MESSAGES

-1)Minor drought releif today and tomorrow.

-2)Rain chances decrease and the heat returns thereafter.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor drought releif today and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Weakly cyclonic mid level flow to our west will enhance shower and storm coverage this afternoon as well as Tuesday's. In addition to the mid level forcing there are also outflow and differential heating boundaries across the area making timing and favored locations tricky.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances decrease and the heat returns thereafter.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... From Wednesday through Friday mid level ridge pokes back into the area from the NW. This will lead to a warmup but not like last week where the ridge and max heat was closer to being overhead. At this point it looks like we will get back into the Heat Advisory realm rather than Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Unfortunately the capping effect of the ridging will keep rain chances to minimal/none. KEY MESSAGE 3...

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

A bit of a hodgepodge of convection expected this afternoon with numerous outflow and differential boundaries noted. This has lowered forecast confidence and so have a PROB30 at all terminals. Stratus could go IFR tonight though guidance has backed off in favor of areas further west, though this afternoon's convective coverage could modulate this. Storms may re-fire close to then end of the period though continued mid level cloudiness could delay the timing.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions into Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday... Rather unusual warm season onshore flow in the near term with a frontal boundary stalled south of the area. Wind speeds will be light and so the wind waves diminutive but there is a rather long easterly fetch into the region for a swell component. Changes take shape gradually late Wednesday as a Piedmont Trough develops and becomes the main wind-maker leading to a more typical SW flow locally. Seas won't really build much but the swell should wane as the long easterly fetch gets interrupted.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.