textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes with the latest forecast package. Aviation section updated with the routine 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and isolated storm chances continue through Saturday.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

3) High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east to southeast facing beaches today.

4) Small craft advisory in effect for the NC Coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat and isolated storm chances continue through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As of this afternoon Wilmington (ILM) has recorded 3 consecutive days of 100 degree heat for the first time since 2012. This is only the third time this has occurred in the period of record, dating back to April of 1874. This period of unusual heat will continue on Saturday with temperatures expected to reach the mid and upper 90s.

A few thunderstorms (and clusters of thunderstorms) are developing west of the area along the eastern Appalachians, and in the vicinity of Charleston, SC. Moisture to our south, weak mid level impulses to our west, and ample buoyancy should allow convective initiation to progress toward the Piedmont later this afternoon. Downdraft CAPE and mid level kinematics are likely to sustain any established convection to our west and could support a few isolated strong or severe downdrafts through this evening.

The ridge will be slightly weaker on Saturday, so portions of the area could see more coverage prior to established convection arriving from the west. Moisture aloft will be on the rise during the afternoon, therefore the latest adjustment to the forecast increased PoPs to an area-wide 40%. Showers and thunderstorm coverage should increase late Saturday, but this is expected to be well after peak heating ahead of a cold front.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late Saturday through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

An upper ridge will continue to degrade this weekend which will allow above normal temperatures to cool by a couple of degrees on Saturday. Slightly cooler temperatures and deeper mixing in westerly flow will keep heat indices a touch cooler on Saturday as well.

Showers and storms increase late Saturday as a mid level trough sags southward. An approaching cold front on Sunday will bring widespread showers and thunderstorms and should keep temperatures near normal. Increased mid and upper level moisture across the area along with impulses embedded in NW flow aloft should provide multiple opportunities for much-needed rainfall.

High pressure will be slow to fill in from the north through the middle of next week resulting in cooler temperatures lasting through at least early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3... High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east to southeast facing beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 4... Small craft advisory in effect for the NC Coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...See Marine Discussion Section.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR expected through this evening. A few isolated storms are possible with the best chance of impacts confined to the inland terminals of FLO/LBT. Coverage this afternoon will remain isolated, so did not include this potential in the TAF. Dry sub- cloud layers are also keeping vicinity thunderstorms rather weak and VFR during passage. A more organized line of storms is possible this evening which may allow for a better defined window of impact. Coastal terminals will likely remain VFR apart from an outflow this evening. A stronger low level jet should prevent fog and a dry surface layer favors VFR overnight. Similar conditions on Saturday, but afternoon storm coverage should be higher.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR and breezy through Saturday night. Showers and thunderstorms become more numerous Saturday night through Monday leading to periodic restrictions. High pressure to slowly build into the region on Tuesday with a gradual return to summer-like conditions during the middle of next week.

MARINE

Strong SW flow continues tonight with frequent gusts to 20-25 knots (highest in NC nearshore waters) and seas 3-5 feet (up to 6 feet in NC nearshore waters). Winds decrease slightly on Saturday as the strongest gradient moves southward. The current Small Craft Advisory should be allowed to expire late tonight as mixing over the waters ends and the gradient on Saturday evening is just below advisory criteria. A cold front drops southward Sunday with increasing showers and thunderstorms through Monday. Expect a wind shift to the NE and ENE late Sunday behind the front and NE winds early next week. Summer- like conditions gradually return during the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

As of this afternoon (7/10/2026) Wilmington (ILM) has recorded 3 consecutive days of highs at or above 100 degrees. This is the first time since 2012 and is only the third time this has occurred in the period of record, dating back to April of 1874.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252.