textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking. Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) One last day of dangerous, potentially record-breaking, heat today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day severe storms and excessive rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...One last day of dangerous, potentially record- breaking, heat today (Saturday) along with a low risk for late day severe storms and excessive rainfall.

Should be the last day of excessive heat before a cold front moves through tonight into Sunday. The more westerly flow and minimal clouds should allow air temps to soar into the mid to upper 90s, possibly nearing record territory, especially at Wilmington where the record high is 95 degrees last set in 2023. The elevated dewpoints, generally in the mid to upper 70s, will yield rather oppressive heat indices generally peaking up near 110 degrees in many spots. Certainly could see brief heat indices over 110 but not enough confidence/coverage to warrant an Extreme Heat Warning so we maintained the ongoing Heat Advisory.

Attention then turns to an increasing risk for showers/storms this afternoon into this evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest and a more organized line of convection tries to develop as deep layer shear increases in association with more troughing/energy aloft. The SPC is still highlighting much of the area, especially in NC, for a 2 out of 5 risk for severe storms with the main severe hazards being damaging winds and to a lesser extent quarter size or larger hail. Heavy rainfall is also likely with a low risk for flash flooding, especially near the NC coast where storms may be more persistent near the front.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in mainly VFR conditions outside of patchy low stratus/fog this morning that will dissipate quickly shortly after daybreak. Should see a better risk for restrictions from showers/storms later in the day as a cold front approaches. We have changed the PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups, generally for several hours either side of 00Z, as a likely line of storms moves southeastward through the area.

Extended Outlook...Moderate risk for low clouds/fog late tonight with a moderate to high risk for showers/storms Sun/Sun night and low risk Mon. Generally a low risk for restrictions thereafter with generally prevailing VFR conditions as high pressure builds to the north keeping drier air in place.

MARINE

Today through Wednesday... Pretty typical summertime conditions today ahead of an approaching cold front which will move through tonight into Sun shifting winds more northerly, possibly reaching Small Craft Advisory levels Mon into Tue. Seas also look to build due to the long onshore fetch developing behind the front, possibly reaching 6 ft later Monday. Conditions look to improve toward mid week as high pressure builds more into the area from the north.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.