textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12Z TAF discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain chances will diminish after today.

2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances will diminish after today.

Mid-upper troughing over the eastern US will gradually weaken and lift away over the next day while upper-level high pressure builds eastward in its place. Scattered showers and storms over the coastal waters will drift onshore through this morning before pushing inland with the sea breeze this afternoon. Guidance continues to show possibility of heavy rain with some of the showers and storms through today. With precipitable water values near 2 inches, rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr can easily occur in a slow-moving thunderstorm. Thus, heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding is the primary concern, especially if storms end up backbuilding over the same area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

As upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week, temperatures will rise above normal and shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease to below seasonal norms. With the core of the high pressure center shifting overhead by midweek, expect well-above normal highs in the middle to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria may be reached in some areas between Wednesday and Friday, although enough dry air in the lower atmosphere may be able to keep heat indices from reaching 105F or greater across much of the area. Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is needed, a period of mostly sunny, dry, and abnormally hot conditions (with heat indices of 100F or higher) is becoming more likely.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Sub-VFR due to leftover overnight restrictions most likely at inland terminals, while coastal terminals may face restrictions from heavy showers moving onshore. Inland terminals should clear up within the 13-15Z time period, around which convection will start following the sea breeze. Headed into the 18Z time period shower and storm chances will migrate to inland terminals. Sunday night again could have restrictions in the way of IFR fog, but we should see less activity at the coastal terminals as we start to move into a drier period.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through mid next week. The coverage of SHRA/TSRA is expected to be lower Monday through at least Thursday with a drier air-mass in place during that time.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Light east to southeast flow is in place as high pressure establishes itself north of the area. As the surface high pressure moves offshore into midweek, a return of south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts is expected. Seas will run 1-2 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi zones primarily driven by east-southeast 8-9 sec swells. Wind waves of 1 ft or less will continue in tandem with the daytime increase in winds. A longer period swell of 11-12 sec should reach the Southeast coast over Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing seas into the 2-3 ft range in the 0-20nmi zones and 3-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones.

CLIMATE

Wilmington, NC is currently matching its hottest summer on record. The average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently in line with 2011 and 2010 as of the official daily climate report from August 28.

#1 2026 81.8 deg F (with three days left) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.