textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A mostly dry cold front will move through the area tonight, and may see isolated to widely scattered showers/t-storms this evening, mainly across the Cape Fear area and adjacent waters. There's not much in the way of moisture for the front to work with limiting coverage. Thus, no major changes were made with the afternoon forecast package. Did remove initial key message regarding today's unseasonable heat to focus on the front and upcoming cooler/drier weather. The aviation section was also updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier weather is expected in the wake of a cold front and the arrival of a ridge of high pressure beginning late Monday night persisting through Thursday.

A cold front will move southward across the forecast area tonight and this will bring an end to this most recent round of heat and humidity. High pressure will be centered across New England by Tuesday morning and the ridge axis will extend far south encompassing the Carolinas. This feature will bring more seasonable temperatures and lower the humidity over the next few days. Some of the cooler spots may drop into the upper 50s Wednesday night into early Thursday morning with decent radiational cooling. The surface ridge will gradually weaken across the area Wednesday through Thursday with temperatures increasing again by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence of VFR conditions prevailing through the TAF period. Included VCTS for early this evening at KILM, otherwise no CIG or VSBY restrictions are expected at the terminals with the front's passage. The flow will continue to veer around to a Nly, then NEly direction over the next several hours as the front pushes south of the area.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Thursday in a drier and cooler airmass. May see an uptick in SHRA/TSRA by Friday and Saturday, but confidence is limited at this time with any potential restrictions.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday...A NEly surge will build southward across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front. This will result in marginal Small Craft conditions that will gradually expand across the Long Bay coastal waters. Plan on expanding the advisory for these areas as a result. The NEly fetch will persist into Wednesday as the surface ridge axis resides across the Carolinas. While this fetch continues the strongest portion of it will remain farther offshore Wednesday. A trough will approach from the east but will keep the NEly fetch pinched across the waters Thursday before we see a better drop in wind speeds Friday and Saturday. Ultimately, the persistent NEly fetch will prevent any rapid improvement in the sea state until later in the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254- 256.