textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

-1)Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The slight risk has been expanded and now includes most of the area save for marginal for northernmost zones. Vorticity-laden NW flow continues with MLCAPE generally around 2000 J/Kg. Confidence is shaky regarding exact location based upon spread in CAMS, though the nearest term threat appears to be the cluster of storms diving SE out of RAH's CWA, though they so far have been only SPS-worthy though a small uptick in shear could change that and a few SVR's may be needed. Guidance is clinging to rain chances over southernmost zones, which are closer to yesterday's frontal boundary but would not be surprised to see these lowered somewhat as instability wanes to zero.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR following convection along the coast this evening. VFR will continue through the early morning hours, and northeast winds should bring MVFR to much of the region overnight. Some early morning IFR is also possible. VFR will return by mid-morning with a chance of showers and storms in SC tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Outlook... Mostly VFR conditions as drier high pressure builds in from the north.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108-110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.