textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Tweaks have been made to potential fog development overnight, focusing in particularly on the Pee Dee region. Recent near- term ensembles point to the Kingstree-Florence-Darlington area for reduced visibility mainly between 5 and 9 AM Wednesday. No other significant changes were made to the overnight forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday as an old frontal boundary moves in from the southeast. By later in the week a stronger synoptic system brings an ever increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will generally be around seasonal values.

KEY MESSAGE 1

The Cape Fear area enjoyed a very pleasant late summer day with lower dewpoints and reasonable temperatures as the lingering front pushed a bit offshore. This will be short lived however as the front pushes inland again Wednesday with convection coming back into play. Broad troughing/height falls will begin to impact the area later Thursday into much of the weekend with widespread rain and convection. There is some drying noted late in the forecast period as the troughing is replaced by weak ridging but if a front lingers in the area it could remain somewhat unsettled. Unremarkable trends for temperatures as they should stay within a few degrees of seasonal values both day and night.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Biggest aviation weather concern overnight will be the potential for ground fog and/or low stratus ceilings late. This potential is low at KILM, KCRE and KLBT, but moderate at KFLO after 09z. Any MVFR to IFR conditions at KFLO should clear up around 13z.

Attention will then shift to increasing moisture from the south that may yield scattered coastal showers after sunrise. The potential for brief MVFR impacts (mainly in visibility) is moderate and could begin at KCRE and KMYR as early as 12z, shifting north to include KILM after 15z. Inland airports have a lower, but not zero, potential for impacts as well.

Extended Forecast...There is a moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the area as well in a warm and humid airmass. The next cold front should move into the area Friday night or Saturday.

MARINE

Through Saturday...The unusual northerly component to the winds today will come to an end during the day Wednesday as the front that pushed offshore will make a return visit. From there the standard south to southwest flow around ten knots will take up residence again. By later in the week wind speeds may increase to 10-15 knots and stand a better shot at being distorted by convection.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.