textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Small Craft Advisory issued for all coastal waters from midnight tonight through midnight Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

High pressure over the area will weaken today before a reinforcing high builds down tonight into Thursday, bringing another surge in northeast winds as the pressure gradient tightens. Although winds will not be as strong or gusty compared to last week, concerns remain at the coast. The likelihood for strong, dangerous rip currents remains elevated through the end of the week along with the potential for strong longshore currents at east-facing beaches. For marine implications, see the marine section below.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the morning high tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory is likely for tomorrow morning's high tide.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. On Wednesday and Thursday, there will be an increase in low-level moisture leading to an increase in cloud cover, but little to no chance of rain on land. Temperatures gradually rise through the work week before settling back to near normal over the weekend. A storm system affecting the Southern Plains late in the week may eventually bring increased rain chances over the weekend or early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight amidst continued dry air and light northeast winds. Low-level moisture advection from the northeast later tonight into Wednesday morning is likely to bring a deck of low stratus in, but confidence is limited regarding the extent of this cloud deck. KLBT is likely to see impacts while moderate confidence exists at KILM and KFLO. KMYR and KCRE are not out of the question, but confidence is low there. MVFR mist may also accompany the arrival of this cloud deck. The return of VFR will depend heavily on the extent and thickness of the clouds, with the most likely area to see restrictive cigs hang on the longest at KLBT.

Extended outlook: VFR should return to all terminals by 18Z Wednesday. Expect VFR to prevail thereafter with gusty NE winds at times, especially near the coast.

MARINE

High pressure will be reinforced from the north tonight into Thursday, leading to an increase in northeast flow with an attendant increase in seas. The lack of any notable low pressure system will keep speeds mostly under 25 kt. However, the extended duration and fetch of enhanced northeast flow, on top of an already elevated sea state (easterly swell 4-5 ft), will push seas over 6 ft on Wednesday and Thursday. The pressure gradient starts to relax late Thursday with winds and seas gradually decreasing Thursday night through Friday. A storm system coming out of the Southern Plains combined with high pressure building in north of the area may tighten the pressure gradient enough to yield another period of hazardous conditions for small craft over at least part of the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.