textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included low-end POPs for mainly the north of a FLO-CPC-ILM line for later this afternoon. Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAF set.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A cold front will move across the area during the afternoon and shift off the coast early this evening resulting in a period of below normal temperatures through the first part of next week. Frost/freeze potential exists each night this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A cold front will move across the area during the afternoon and shift off the coast early this evening resulting in a period of below normal temperatures through the first part of next week. Frost/freeze potential exists each night this weekend into early next wee.

The well amplified mid/upper trough in place across the eastern U.S. this afternoon has displaced the deeper moisture axis far off the Carolinas coast. Water vapor imagery shows dry air in place along the coastal plains but with support aloft and the front passing through may be enough to squeeze out widely scattered showers later this afternoon and early evening. While the chances are low, the best chances are across northern portions of the forecast area.

The aforementioned mid/upper trough will linger across the eastern U.S. through the weekend allowing for below normal temperatures. There is the potential for some frost during the early Saturday morning hours but a lot will depend on wind conditions. A better potential exist for frost and freezing temperatures late Saturday night into early Sunday morning, and late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Inland areas have the best potential for freezing temperatures while frost is possible even closer to the coast. The risk for frost may extend each early morning into the middle of the upcoming week. Gradually ridging aloft will get temperatures back to near normal for the latter half of the upcoming week.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through 18Z Friday. A mostly dry cold front will move across the terminals this afternoon resulting in wind gusts of 20-30 kt at times. Opted to include VCSH for KLBT/KILM given HRRR consistently showing widely scattered -SHRA developing later this afternoon, then exiting the coast by early this evening. Otherwise, gusty winds this afternoon ahead of the front will veer to a Wly direction in its wake with less gust potential tonight with some gusts Friday.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...SWly winds will continue to increase across the waters (especially offshore) through the afternoon with steepening seas as a cold front approaches from the west. The front will move across the waters by this evening with offshore flow becoming established in its wake. Speeds will gradually diminish overnight and the offshore flow will prevail through the weekend. No changes planned for the Small Craft Advisory for the Coastal Waters and the Gale Warning for the Offshore Waters, both will expire tonight. Otherwise, may see a brief shower, mainly Cape Fear northward later this afternoon and evening. High pressure will shift from the OH Valley into the eastern U.S. early next week allowing the flow to veer to a NEly direction. The NEly fetch will not allow for much improvement in maritime conditions through Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ280.