textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Frigid Morning Commute.

2) Less Breezy Today, But Still Extremely Dry.

3) Hazardous Marine Conditions Continue Over the Southeast NC Coastal Waters.

4) Light wintry precipitation with minor accumulations possible Sunday into Sunday night. At the very least, water freezing on roadways could lead to hazardous travel conditions Sunday night.

5) Dangerously low wind chills possible each night starting Sunday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Frigid Morning Commute.

As we near 1 AM EST, the Arctic air is continuing to settle in across the Carolinas. Temperatures are hovering around the upper 20s to near 30 as of press time, coupled with a light WNW breeze. Winds are expected to go nearly calm within an hour or two before sunrise, which keeps the wind chills from crashing. Still, apparent temperatures will easily dip into the upper teens to lower 20s during this morning's commute to work and school. Temperatures only get up into the mid-to-upper 40s this afternoon. Bundle up!

KEY MESSAGE 2...Less Breezy Today, But Still Extremely Dry.

Unlike yesterday, no Fire Danger Statements for northeast SC and southeast NC today, due to decreased winds. Even so, skin-cracking dry air will still linger today, with dewpoints in the single digits for much of the day. Dewpoints will then start to recover into the teens this evening, and then into the 20s throughout overnight tonight. Winds still have a potential to gust up to 20-22 mph this afternoon. With the dry air and even drier fuels in place, even though these conditions do not technically meet the criteria for a Fire Danger Statement, it's still not an ideal day to burn. Use extreme caution.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous Marine Conditions Continue Over the Southeast NC Coastal Waters.

The Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for the coastal waters from Little River Inlet, SC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Meanwhile, the advisory continues up to Surf City, NC out 20 nm until 7 AM EST this morning. Had to extend this part of the advisory due to elevated winds. Conditions only slightly improve from there. See Marine section below for more.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Light wintry precipitation with minor accumulations possible Sunday into Sunday night. At the very least, water freezing on roadways could lead to hazardous travel conditions Sunday night.

An arctic cold front is expected to approach from the west Saturday night before likely moving through Sunday, although still some uncertainty regarding exactly when. Meanwhile, moisture will be increasing across the region ahead of an approaching upper trough. Rain will likely start late Saturday night, although should stay too warm for any frozen precipitation. However, during the day Sunday temperatures could start falling inland (especially aloft) depending on the timing of the trough aloft and surface cold frontal passage, which will lead to a bit better risk for some snow to mix in with or even take over as the predominant precip type. However, moisture levels will also be diminishing from west to east so the timing of deeper moisture along with the sufficiently cold air will be crucial to whether we see any measurable snowfall and/or any other types of frozen precip. If the deeper moisture departs but there is still some shallow moisture around we could see some freezing rain/drizzle on the backside of the precip shield Sun eve, mainly near the coast. The 01Z NBM still shows a moderate risk for measurable snow (0.1" or greater) across much of SE NC and NE SC with the greatest chance near the NC Sandhills. The latest GFS ensembles continue to back off the risk for at least 1" of snow (<20%). In any event, any wet roadways by late Sunday will likely re-freeze Sunday night as temps should fall below freezing most places, so black ice could make travel hazardous into Monday morning (especially inland). Everyone is encouraged to pay close attention to the forecast for early next week, especially if they have travels plans.

Note: The last widespread measurable snow across our area was January 21-22, 2025. Additional flurries and snow showers occurred on November 10, 2025.

KEY MESSAGE 5: Dangerously low wind chills possible each night from Sunday night through Tuesday night.

The combination of below normal temperatures and wind could lead to dangerously cold wind chill temperatures around 20 degrees or colder each night from Sunday night through Tuesday night. The best chance of seeing wind chills of 15 degrees or less (Cold Weather Advisory criteria) will be Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Nothing but SKC for the next 24 hours. Winds out of the WNW at 5-10 kts currently, but may calm as we approach sunrise. Winds then back to the SSW at 8- 10 kts by early this afternoon, coming back down to 5 kts or less after sunset tonight.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Saturday. Flight restrictions likely Sunday, along with possible frozen precipitation. Back to VFR Sunday night through Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory in effect for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 nm until 7 AM EST this morning. Stiff northwesterly winds early this morning will temporarily come down to 5-10 kts later after sunrise. Seas will gradually come down to 1-2 ft. Winds will then back to the southwest by early this afternoon, remaining that way through the end of the period. Gradient winds increase to deliver gusts near 20 kts by this evening and through the overnight hours. Seas come back up to 2-4 ft as a result.

Saturday through Tuesday Night...Moderate to high confidence this period. Winds/seas will remain elevated prior to and after cold frontal passages late Saturday night and/or Sunday and again Monday night. There is a moderate risk for a Small Craft Advisory for wind gusts around 25 knots.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252.