textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... After temperatures near to slightly below normal today, above normal readings return starting Sunday with highs in the 90s everywhere except near the coast. Heat indices will also rise into next week, above 100 degrees by Monday and Tuesday over many areas with a low chance for a Heat Advisory both days. In terms of rain chances, weak subsidence aloft will reside over the area early in the week but the trend will be towards slightly higher diurnal rain chances through mid week as better shortwave energy pivots through the area in conjunction with a surface trough dropping in and remaining in the vicinity.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR and dry through the 12Z TAF period. Weak high pressure will push from TN into the Carolinas today before washing out. This will lead to light northerly flow this morning giving way to generally light/variable winds tonight.

Extended Forecast...VFR continues Sunday. MVFR/IFR possible with isolated to scattered mainly afternoon t-storms each day next week.

MARINE

All marine headlines have come to an end, with weak sfc high pressure over the waters this weekend allowing for benign marine conditions. The pressure gradient will start to tighten up once again on Monday ahead of the next front to drop into the area, with SW gusts up to 20-25 kt by Monday aftn. The front drops in Tuesday or Wednesday allowing for speeds to decrease a bit, and with a lack of CAA behind the front not anticipating SCA conditions mid week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.