textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory cancelled nearly an hour b4 its expiration at 7pm. This a result of earlier convection and debris clouds hanging on longer than anticipated.

Aviation discussion updated with 00Z TAFs Issuance.

BHS issued for strong south to north longshore current for E to SE facing beaches. For Brunswick County, S facing beaches, expect Moderate west to east longshore current. Moderate rip current risk being advertised across all 5 county beaches. The strong longshore currents will help prevent rip currents from fully maturing.

KEY MESSAGES

1)One more day of heat before some much needed rainfall chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...One more day of heat before some much needed rainfall chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Despite some weakly cyclonic mid level flow impinging from the north, a precursor to our eventual troughiness, as well as a continued Piedmont Trough, models are in good agreement that the area stays rain-free through Wednesday. Another Heat Advisory will be needed for similar areas as today. A few showers or storms may pop up Wednesday night as a prefrontal band of moisture is shunted into the area, though some guidance keeps this activity to our north. By Thursday the front drops into the area. This boundary should stall near the coast bringing a prolonged period of unsettled weather and some much needed drought releif while breaking the heat. Of note though that the 5 day QPF forecast from WPC has pulled some of the higher amounts previously forecast a bit to the north away from the area.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Generally VFR to dominate thru the evening. However, expect periodic MVFR stratusfractus or cumulusfractus during the pre- dawn Wed hours...extending thru 14z. Diurnal Cu to develop after 14Z with the immediate coast subject to isolated convection thru midday but confidence remains low to include in the TAFs. Will have mid and upper level clouds snake down from the NW thruout the 24 hr period. Tightened sfc pg to prevail thru the 24 hr period resulting in SSW-SW winds 10g20+kt overnight thru Wed with the gustiness aided by winds in excess of 30 kt just off the deck. Sea breeze during Wed may be pinned somewhat early on, then slowly pushing inland with much of its progress dependent on the strength of the SW-W winds in the low and mid levels of the atm. Some of the guidance paints wind speeds Wed gusting to 30+ kt, even across the inland terminals as the Piedmont trof and cold front push se-ward. The cold front progged to reach the western Carolinas by the end of the fcst period.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions from tstorms beginning Thu and remaining possible through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday...The gradient will be tightened between the Piedmont Trough and offshore high pressure through early Thursday. As Thursday progresses a front will drop down into the area and push this gradient further out to sea. SCA currently out through WEdnesday evening, possibly in need of a slight extension. Waves will be predominantly wind-driven as opposed to swell driven. The front never cleanly pushes through the area keeping the late period winds southwesterly but with much lowers speeds allowing seas to abate.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.