textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Heavy rain will develop later this morning and persist at times through Sunday. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into early Sunday.

- 2) Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

- 3) Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rain will develop later this morning and persist at times through Sunday. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into early Sunday.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect from 11 AM EDT Saturday to 11 AM EDT Sunday for Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, Columbus, Horry, and Georgetown Counties.

NWS doppler radar data indicated that Hurricane Isaias made landfall near Destin, FL, around 9:30 PM EDT on Friday, October 9, 2026, with maximum sustained winds of 105 mph and an estimated minimum central pressure of 971 mb.

Since then, the hurricane has quickly weakened, and has officially turned post-tropical as of the 2 AM EDT advisory update. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected as it continues to move northward through central AL at about 20 mph.

Even though it remains far to the west, Isaias continues to bring deep tropical moisture into the Carolinas. Divergence aloft will aid in heavy rainbands, especially this afternoon into early Sunday morning. Precipitable water (PWAT) values are picking up, lingering between 1.4-1.9" across the area. A tropical atmosphere will continue to build in, where the 90th percentile shows PWATs up to 2.4-2.5" tonight, which would rival the highest PWATs at the CHS RAOB for this time in October.

Despite these drenched PWATs, the trickiest part of the forecast continues to be how much rain will be recorded. HREF continues to show a wide variety of solutions, ranging from around half an inch to 5+ inches. This is dependent upon what kind of rainbands we'll see, and where exactly they set up. The general idea is still on track, where the highest rainfall amounts are expected in the coastal areas, hence the Flood Watch.

Additionally, there will be an opportunity with an environment supportive of tornadoes. This potential is similar across all of northeast SC and southeast NC highlighted by a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk Saturday night into early Sunday morning. A Slight (2 of 5) Risk is also highlighted across the forecast area during the remainder of the day Sunday, but is more conditional at that time. Deeper drying on Sunday will impact the areal extent of any convection and the threat of flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

Hazards in effect:

- Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM EDT to 10 AM EDT this morning for the entire coastline from coastal Pender County, NC to Georgetown County, SC.

- Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM EDT to 12 PM EDT this morning for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

- A High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for all east-facing beaches.

- A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for a strong east to west longshore current across the coastal Brunswick County beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is also in effect for this area.

- A High Surf Advisory is in effect from 2 PM EDT this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for the coastal Pender and New Hanover County beaches.

No changes to the previous thinking regarding coastal impacts this weekend. The increased onshore will yield rough surf and strong rip currents. Large breaking waves of 3 to 6 ft expected along the beaches north of Cape Fear. Wave-runup may also cause minor to moderate beach erosion, especially those beaches with a weakened shoreline structure with high tide this evening. Rough surf may linger into Monday, but should improve as the winds become more favorable.

The winds coupled with the high astronomical tides during the next several high tide cycles will lead to minor coastal flooding along all area beaches and the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

- A Gale Warning is in effect from 8 AM EDT Saturday to 6 AM EDT Sunday for the waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 60 nm.

See the Marine section below for more detail.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Restrictions may bounce around through the day, following where the rain goes as several bands will move over the area through the 12Z TAF period. Have opted to go with predominant restrictions of MVFR VSBYs and MVFR to IFR CIGs. Heavier rain, likely at coastal terminals, could lead to brief 2 SM or lower VSBYs. The best chance for occasional thunder will be at coastal terminals during the day, with isolated thunder possible for I-95 terminals.

Otherwise, NE winds will gust near 30 kts at coastal terminals and around 25 kts inland. Gusts inland start to come down towards the end of the period, with winds veering a bit to the southeast. Rain continues, particularly closer to KILM.

Extended Outlook...IFR conditions are likely inland late Saturday night, with lower confidence at coastal terminals. Heavy rain and thunderstorms are expected Saturday night into Sunday, higher confidence at coastal terminals. VFR should return as dry air filters in late Sunday through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Northeast to easterly winds will increase this morning as the pressure gradient tightens between high pressure north of the area, and Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias, which will be moving through central AL today. The flow will continue to veer to the southeast and south by this evening, and wind speeds will likely be aided by areas of convection. While sustained winds may be marginally at or below Gale Force, frequent gusts to Gale Force support a Gale Warning through Sunday morning. Seas will become steeper and increase to 7 to 10 ft, especially up to 60 nm offshore. The flow will finally veer to an offshore direction Sunday night with speeds decreasing with improving maritime conditions during Monday. At some point, the Gale Warning will need to be lowered in favor of a Small Craft Advisory, possibly during Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Sunday morning for NCZ099-105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ110. SC...Flood Watch from 11 AM EDT this morning through Sunday morning for SCZ054>056-058-059. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256-280- 284.