textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The cold front that brought rain over the weekend is now well offshore, while another dry cold front in Appalachia is starting to push its way into the Carolina Piedmont. Dry air noted in the low-level water vapor loop on Channel 10 of GOES-19, particularly along and west of I-95. As the dry front moves toward the forecast area tonight, more dry air will infiltrate the column, allowing the cloud deck to open up over the next several hours.

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 8 PM EDT. Aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather ending this afternoon and will be followed by drier air along with near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather ending this afternoon and will be followed by drier air along with near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

Light rain confined to southern areas attm should come to an end in the next couple of hours as high pressure ridges into the area. Drier air at the surface and aloft will continue working into the area tonight and should result in decreasing clouds late this afternoon into tonight. Fair and cool weather is expected into mid-week with high pressure in control.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mostly MVFR to open the 00Z TAF period, with ceilings very gradually improving. KFLO and KLBT will be improving to VFR ceilings within the next hour or two, while it will take awhile for KILM, KCRE, and KMYR to get there (KCRE and KMYR are still going down to IFR at times). Ultimately think the ceilings should lift to VFR in these areas by 04Z tonight, but there's a chance that MVFR could last through much of the night. Will be monitoring this situation closely.

Elsewhere, gradient winds out of the NE will pick up this period, with gusts up to 18-20 kts coming into play by 15-16Z Tuesday. These gusts should subside by 21-23Z.

Extended Outlook...VFR dominates Tuesday night through at least Friday evening. Only exception could be some patchy fog in the mornings. Flight restrictions may come into play again by Saturday with the next rain chances.

MARINE

Norther to northeast flow will continue tonight. A surge of stronger winds will reach the area after midnight, resulting in SCA conditions Tuesday into Wednesday. Winds and seas will diminish Wed night through Thu before increasing again into next weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.