textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

Severe Thunderstorm Watch was been cancelled earlier, although still can't completely rule out an isolated severe storm with damaging wind gusts for another hour or so east of I-95.

Beach Hazards Statement was cancelled a bit early.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Through This Evening.

2) Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible This Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Through This Evening.

A remnant MCV is currently moving eastward across central NC, sparking convection ahead of it, including along the sea breeze. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible given the abundant heat and humidity in place, supporting plenty of instability while modest wind shear helps with storm organization. While the most supportive conditions for severe storms exist north of the area, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was raised for the Cape Fear area as plenty of instability and greater DCAPE exist with southward extent, which may help offset the weaker effective shear (~20 kts) this far south. Behind the MCV, a mid-level shortwave trough will send a cold front southward, serving as a lifting mechanism which should be able to spark isolated to scattered showers and storms later this afternoon into this evening, mainly near the boundary. Once again, any severe storms should be isolated and relatively short-lived due to the weak vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, convection associated with the front will gradually shift southeastward into the Pee Dee region and dissipate into tonight, with cooler and drier air filtering in overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible This Weekend.

Behind Tuesday's cold front, near-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday and lower 90s on Thursday.

For Friday through this weekend, significant heat is anticipated as ridging over the Atlantic pushes back into the South. Triple digit heat indices return on Friday and rise considerably over the weekend, with Heat Advisories possible as max temperatures push into the mid-upper 90s and overnight lows settle only into the mid-upper 70s. Prepare to limit time outdoors and drink plenty of water!

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

00Z Wed thru 00Z Thu: High confidence in mainly VFR conditions. A passing cold front could bring some restrictions from showers/storms this evening. There's also a very low risk for low clouds/fog overnight.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR through Sunday. The exceptions would include a low potential for fog Thursday and Friday mornings, and some slightly better convection chances Sunday.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10PM EDT this evening for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out to 20 nm. Gradient winds out of the southwest will continue with gusts up to 25-30 kts until late afternoon. Seas peak around 5-7 ft late this afternoon before subsiding this evening. A cold front moves through the waters late tonight, allowing the winds to veer to the NNW and settle around 10-15 kts. Seas also improve to 2-4 ft early Wednesday.

With high pressure in control over land behind the cold front, winds settle to 10 kts or less for Wednesday night through Friday morning. Seas subside to 1-3 ft amidst the light winds. Bermuda high pressure then takes over and abnormally hot temperatures over land help to tighten the pressure gradient, leading to a breezy Friday and Saturday with sustained winds as high as 15-20 kts and seas rising to 3-5 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.