textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion with the 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unseasonable Warmth Continues Through the Weekend.

- 2) Cold Front Brings Showers and Storms Sunday Afternoon and Night.

- 3) Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday.

Front will be offshore by Monday morning, and much cooler, drier air will settle into the area. Highs Monday and Tuesday may struggle to hit 70 in some spots, which lingers just below normal for early April. Canadian high pressure moves into the Northeast Wednesday, essentially allowing for a reinforcing cold front to move through. As a result, highs Wednesday only get into the mid 60s.

Lows drop into the 40s Monday night through Wednesday night, with Tuesday night appearing to be the chilliest (inland areas may bottom out right at 40 degrees). While that's cold by April standards, that's not in frost territory. Temperatures aside, it appears to be too dry, too windy, or both, for any frost concerns among each of these nights.

High pressure moves offshore by Thursday, allowing for air mass modification to begin. Look for temperatures to warm back up above normal by late next week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR to start off the 24 hr 06Z TAF issuance period. However, fog and/or low stratus to affect the FLO/LBT terminals leading up to and just after sunrise Sat. At this point will apply MVFR fog/stratus conditions and may include tempo groups for IFR at press time. Spotty rainfall earlier, may further increase the fog possibility across the inland terminals. And, with the LLJ progged not as strong as previous nights, should allow winds to decouple(calm) much easier. Diurnal cu to once again affect the local terminals today, early on for the coastal terminals prior to the sea breeze development, becoming SKC in its wake as it pushes inland. Isolated showers again possible this aftn/evening west of a LBT-FLO line. At this time will not include in their TAFs. Winds generally calm this morning becoming SSE-SSW AOB 10 kt during the day except in the wake of the inland progressing sea breeze, 10-15 kt this aftn into this evening.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, with the exception possible flight restrictions late Sun into Sun night as a cold front moves through with showers/storms accompanying it.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Sfc ridging will extend across the area waters from the center of high pressure located well east and offshore from the Carolinas this period. The sfc pg rather loose today and begins to tighten-some later tonight. Southerly winds AOB 10 kt to dominate today, 10-15 kt tonight. The gradient of SSTs has been increasing across the area waters as the persistent SE-S onshore winds the past week has pushed the west wall of the gulf stream landward-some. As a result, the SSW LLJ later tonight could produce a few gusts to 20 kt in those "warmer" waters 15 to 20 nm out. Seas will be dominated by that 2 to 4 foot SE swell running at 7 to 9 second periods. Locally driven wind chop expected on top of this swell nearshore due to an active aftn/evening sea breeze.

Sunday through Wednesday...Gradient winds increase ahead of the cold front expected Sunday night. Southwesterly winds gust over 20 kts Sunday, and perhaps even up to 25 kts at times. It does not appear consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time, but this may need to be monitored. Seas increase up to 3-5 ft. The front moves through the coastal waters Sunday night, and the winds veer to the west, and then to the northeast by Monday morning. Gradient develops a secondary tightening after the frontal passage, perhaps stronger this time around. Seas actually dip slightly towards 2-4 ft, but the wind gusts edge up towards advisory conditions a bit more frequently. May need to consider an advisory Monday, though it would be rather brief (6 hours or so). Winds finally start dropping off Monday evening, down towards 10 kts out of the northeast. Seas continue to come down towards 2-3 ft. By late Tuesday, a dry front will start to approach the waters, which brings a considerably stronger increase in the gradient winds. Winds and seas won't have a problem reaching advisory conditions. Some data suggests frequent gales Wednesday, which will need monitoring in the coming days. Seas may escalate to 3-5 ft at the coast, and 6-8 ft out 20 nm from shore.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.