textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion with the 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unseasonable Warmth Continues Through the Weekend.

- 2) Cold Front Brings Showers and Storms Sunday Afternoon and Night.

- 3) Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Much Cooler Weather Expected Monday Through Wednesday.

Front will be offshore by Monday morning, and much cooler, drier air will settle into the area. Highs Monday and Tuesday may struggle to hit 70 in some spots, which lingers just below normal for early April. Canadian high pressure moves into the Northeast Wednesday, essentially allowing for a reinforcing cold front to move through. As a result, highs Wednesday only get into the mid 60s.

Lows drop into the 40s Monday night through Wednesday night, with Tuesday night appearing to be the chilliest (inland areas may bottom out right at 40 degrees). While that's cold by April standards, that's not in frost territory. Temperatures aside, it appears to be too dry, too windy, or both, for any frost concerns among each of these nights.

High pressure moves offshore by Thursday, allowing for air mass modification to begin. Look for temperatures to warm back up above normal by late next week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Leftover MVFR/IFR to quickly dissipate by 1230-1300Z the latest. VFR to dominate there-after. The exception will be a possible deck at 1500-2500 ft level thru 14Z, there-after decks should rise to 3500-5000 ft level with daytime Cu the primary cloud. Winds generally calm this morning becoming SSE-SSW AOB 10 kt by midday and continuing thru the day...the exception will be in the wake of the inland progressing sea breeze, where areas could see winds 10-15 kt this aftn into this evening. The SSW LLJ tonight will be stronger than the previous nights and as a result of a mixed boundary layer, do not see the MVFR/IFR fog issues like previous nights/early mornings.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions are expected, with the exception for possible flight restrictions late Sun into Sun night as a cold front moves through with showers/storms accompanying it.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Sfc ridging will extend across the area waters from the center of high pressure located well east and offshore from the Carolinas this period. The sfc pg rather loose today and begins to tighten-some later tonight. Southerly winds AOB 10 kt to dominate today, 10-15 kt tonight. The gradient of SSTs has been increasing across the area waters as the persistent SE-S onshore winds the past week has pushed the west wall of the gulf stream landward-some. As a result, the SSW LLJ later tonight could produce a few gusts to 20 kt in those "warmer" waters 15 to 20 nm out. Seas will be dominated by that 2 to 4 foot SE swell running at 7 to 9 second periods. Locally driven wind chop expected on top of this swell nearshore due to an active aftn/evening sea breeze.

Sunday through Wednesday...Gradient winds increase ahead of the cold front expected Sunday night. Southwesterly winds gust over 20 kts Sunday, and perhaps even up to 25 kts at times. It does not appear consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time, but this may need to be monitored. Seas increase up to 3-5 ft. The front moves through the coastal waters Sunday night, and the winds veer to the west, and then to the northeast by Monday morning. Gradient develops a secondary tightening after the frontal passage, perhaps stronger this time around. Seas actually dip slightly towards 2-4 ft, but the wind gusts edge up towards advisory conditions a bit more frequently. May need to consider an advisory Monday, though it would be rather brief (6 hours or so). Winds finally start dropping off Monday evening, down towards 10 kts out of the northeast. Seas continue to come down towards 2-3 ft. By late Tuesday, a dry front will start to approach the waters, which brings a considerably stronger increase in the gradient winds. Winds and seas won't have a problem reaching advisory conditions. Some data suggests frequent gales Wednesday, which will need monitoring in the coming days. Seas may escalate to 3-5 ft at the coast, and 6-8 ft out 20 nm from shore.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.