textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperature forecasts have been increased by 1-3 degrees Sunday and Monday. Forecast seabreeze winds have been increased by 5-8 mph Sunday afternoon/early evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated storms possible this evening west of I-95 with potential for hail.

2) Unseasonably warm weather will develop this weekend, peaking on Sunday when inland temperatures could approach 90 degrees.

3) There is considerable uncertainty regarding rain chances on Wednesday.

..................... Sun Mar 22

Mon Mar 23 Wilmington NC......... 87 in 1907 ... 94 in 1907 Lumberton NC.......... 87 in 1948 ... 91 in 1907 N. Myrtle Beach SC.... 86 in 1995 ... 85 in 2011 Florence SC........... 87 in 1995 ... 88 in 1995

Monday should again see unusually warm temperatures, but the arrival of a front and scattered showers/t-storms during the day could limit how warm we can get. Current forecast highs Monday are 83-87 inland with upper 70s to near 80 on the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 3: There is considerable uncertainty regarding rain chances on Wednesday.

Monday afternoon's cold front will slide all the way down into central Florida by Tuesday before stalling. There are some indications that a coastal trough may attempt to develop up along the GA/SC coastline Wednesday, but model spread remains very large. Yesterday's 18z GFS and this morning's 00z GFS both are quite bullish spreading a swath of overrunning light rain over the coastal front on Wednesday, however the ECMWF remains quite dry. Looking across the entire ensemble space from all models, only about 20-25 percent currently show measurable rain across the area on Wednesday implying those last two GFS operational runs may be too strong with Atlantic return flow.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR with passing mid and high clouds. Southwest winds through morning, with a few hours of LLWS between 9z and 13z as westerly winds around 35-40 kts move across at 2 kft. Surface winds turn westerly today, between 5 and 10 kts, with a southerly component to MYR/CRE winds late this afternoon due to pinned sea breeze. Winds quickly become light after sunset. Isolated thunderstorms may develop west of I-95 after 0z, with small chance of thunder at KFLO and KLBT, but expected coverage is too limited for TAF inclusion at this time.

Extended Forecast...VFR to dominate. A cold front will move through Mon with the chance for isolated restrictions due to t-storms and possibly some sea fog along the coast before the front moves through. VFR then returns through Wed.

MARINE

Through Saturday Night....Southwest winds and seas will peak this morning, around 15-20 kts and 3-5 ft respectively. Winds remain out of the southwest through tonight, though with speeds of 10-15 kts. Seas lower to 2-4 ft, combination of E swell and SW wind wave.

Sunday through Wednesday night...A cold front lined up on Sunday from New York State to Oklahoma will gradually sink southeastward and should reach the Carolina coast Monday afternoon, accompanied by scattered showers or thunderstorms. Moderate southwest winds 10-15 kt (up to 20 kt Sunday afternoon/evening with the seabreeze) will turn northeasterly behind the front by Monday evening with speeds increasing to 20-25 kt Monday night. Winds could approach 30 kt in gusts late Monday night into Tuesday as 1032 mb Canadian high pressure should push from the Great Lakes to the Mid Atlantic coast. Pre-frontal seas of 2-4 feet should build to 5-7 feet inside 20 miles from shore Monday night through Tuesday.

The cold front should make it as far south as central Florida before stalling on Tuesday. A coastal trough may try to develop along the GA/SC coast Tuesday night into Wednesday. Our wind speeds should tend to decrease and veer more easterly Wednesday, but with considerable uncertainty regarding the timing of this direction change.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.