textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The threat for strong and dangerous rip currents continues for east-southeast facing beaches into Friday.

Aviation discussion updated with 06 TAFs Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A gradual warming trend begins today, continues through this weekend and well into next week. No rainfall in the forecast for the next week allowing the current drought across the region to further worsen.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A gradual warming trend begins today, continues through this weekend and well into next week. No rainfall in the forecast for the next week allowing the current drought across the region to further worsen. Potential wildfire outbreaks may increase as a result of the dry conditions.

Ridging at the surface and aloft will become the mainstay across Southeast NC and Northeast SC during the next 7 days. Looking at a warming trend during this period with daytime highs today in the 70s rising to the 80s (possibly eclipsing 90 next week) during the ensuing days. One potential fly in the ointment, will be a backdoor cold front that may reach the NC-SC border Sat night before pulling back to the north late Sun. Could observe up to 5 degree lower max temps Sun when compared to Sat, especially across Southeast NC before resuming the warming trend during next week.

Currently, Southeast NC and Northeast SC lies within a Moderate D1 Drought to a Severe D2 Drought. With no rainfall in the forecast for the next week and the daily evapotranspiration rate ranging from 0.15 to 0.20 inches, the drought will only worsen, while encompassing a larger area. The dry conditions may lead to favorable wildfire concerns along with prescribed burns possibly delayed.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. Light NE winds will continue today as high pressure moves over the area with a sea breeze turning winds southerly at the coast.

Extended Forecast...Fog is possible late tonight. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Northeast winds around 15 knots have remained consistent over the past 24 hours or so. This has sustained elevated seas around 4-7 feet. Gradual improvement continues today with seas falling below 6 feet this afternoon. No adjustments were needed to the timing of the SCA with this update. High pressure overhead late this afternoon will allow winds to turn easterly as a sea breeze develops. Seas drop to 2-4 feet by early Saturday, dominated by a lingering easterly swell around 10 seconds.

Saturday through Wednesday night...Weak pressure pattern and relaxed gradient will dominate Sat with the mesoscale sea breeze likely the highlight for the day. Light offshore winds to start Sat with the aftn sea breeze dominating nearshore. Sat night will find a backdoor cold front sliding south that models now take it to the NC-SC border, ie Little River Inlet. Ridging from the NE States will ridge across the region into Sun with NE-E winds dominating the coastal waters, with speeds 10-15 kt by Sun morning. Late Sun thru Tue, the center of this high will slide well offshore from the Mid-Atlantic coast but continuing to ridge back to the Southeast States Coast. This will result in the area waters observing a slow veering of the winds to eventually S-SW Mon night thru Tue with speeds at 10-15 kt at most. However by ed, the ridging sinks further south and the sfc pg tightens across the area resulting with increasing SW wind speeds but still below SCA thresholds. Seas during this period will be dominated by an ENE-ESE swell at 8 to 10 second periods. In this period, seas will peak in height this weekend followed by a slow decaying trend. May observe sea breeze wind chop nearshore each aftn/evening, Sat and again Mon thru Wed.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256.