textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for the lower Cape Fear River, including Downtown Wilmington for this evening's high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Showers and Isolated Storms on the Way With Wednesday's Front.

- 2) Frontal System Brings a Good Shot of Rain Friday Night Through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Frontal System Brings a Good Shot of Rain Friday Night Through Saturday.

Broad low pressure forms near the GA/FL line late Friday and pushes into the Atlantic, strengthening considerably through Saturday. Meanwhile, abundant shortwave energy sweeps across the region from west to east, and moisture kicks up significantly up to 500 mb, due to increased southwesterly flow.

All these ingredients look to be coming together to provide some of the best rain coverage we've seen in months. Rainfall amounts could end up being around 0.50-1.00" by Saturday night, with locally higher amounts. Still have a very long way to go to extinguish this drought, but it's potentially the best we've seen in awhile. Very little instability associated with this one, meaning that stratiform processes will dominate over convective processes. Not expecting much thunder as a result, if at all.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Debris clouds associated with a diminishing line of showers will bring some light precip to the MYR area terminals early this afternoon; no restrictions expected. VFR will continue overnight with periods of clear skies at times. A secondary disturbance will reach the area on Wednesday morning. This could bring some VIS restrictions in light rain. Probabilistic guidance also suggests a brief period of IFR is possible. VFR should return by early afternoon where showers and thunderstorms will be possible. A brief MVFR restriction will be possible in storms, primarily over NC terminals of LBT and ILM.

Extended Forecast...VFR expected through Friday afternoon. A warm front will lift northward late Friday into Saturday with showers bringing restrictions through Saturday. VFR returns on Sunday into early next week.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Light winds this evening will gradually increase overnight. Southerly winds will continue to increase on Wednesday as a cold front approaches the region. Showers in the morning will push northeastward during the mid to late morning. As the main cold front approaches the area late Wednesday, showers or thunderstorms could impact the region.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Moderate breeze out of the southwest veers to the northwest overnight Wednesday night as the front moves through the waters. Seas at 3-5 ft along the coastal waters drop down towards 2-3 ft by Thursday morning, while the offshore waters go from 5-6 ft down towards 3-5 ft. Winds come down towards a gentle breeze throughout the day Thursday, remaining that way through Friday night, gradually veering to the ENE. Seas over the offshore waters come down very slightly towards 3-4 ft. By late Friday night, the next frontal system shows up, backing the winds to the north throughout the weekend. Moderate breeze builds in by Saturday morning, and seas increase up to 3-5 ft along the coastal waters, 6-8 ft along the offshore waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.