textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Warmer than average temperatures and increasing rain chances expected ahead of a cold front pushing through Friday morning. High pressure will build in for the weekend with near to above normal temperatures followed by a dry cold frontal passage Sunday. Dry conditions will then persist through mid next week with near normal temperatures Monday followed by a warming trend.

UPDATE

No significant changes made to the public/marine forecasts, but updated the aviation discussion to account for 00Z TAFs. Temps overnight are a bit tricky given the breaks in the clouds and their impact on radiational cooling. Also added a bit more coverage of patchy fog overnight which could briefly become locally dense.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure centered offshore with a coastal trough and warm front developing off the coast tonight. As this boundary moves ashore early Thursday it may be the focal point of isolated shower activity. Through midday it looks like most of this shower coverage will remain just to our west along the surface convergence along the front. Soon thereafter (about 18Z) some additional forcing for ascent atop the surface boundary kick in. Low level wind fields strengthen, increasing the sense of isentropic upglide, and several voracity centers impinge upon the area in southwesterly flow ahead of the deep cutoff entering the Great Lakes. There are even a few disjointed jet maxima at 250mb Thursday that may aid in what will still only be isolated coverage of deeper convection. PW values surge to an impressive 1.5" by Thursday evening, which is above the 90th percentile for the date.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Deep atm moisture profile thru much of Thu night as both Gulf and Atlantic moisture are tapped. Southern stream s/w trof to provide the necessary dynamics to aid this pcpn event and help counter the weak instability as typical during winter time systems. Nevertheless, stratiform rains with slight chance for thunder still looks feasible Thu night. Could see convective gusts 40+ mph from these storms given the strong low-level wind field. QPF for Thu night, which will be the primary time-line for the majority of the pcpn to occur from this event during this short term period, will range from 0.50" to 0.75". Lows Thu night may have trouble dropping below 60, especially along the coastal counties as strong S-SW winds pump in mild temps and hier dewpoints, helping to fuel the potential thunder. By sunrise Fri, majority of the pcpn will have lifted north- northeast of the FA. Breezy SW-W winds to start Fri followed by a CFP mid to late morning, veering the winds to a gusty and breezy/windy NW direction late morning thru the afternoon. Not much pcpn, if any, associated with the CFP. Looking at a nice drying out period Fri aftn as PWs submarine from 1.5 inches early Fri morning to less than or equal to 0.25 inches during Fri aftn. Thus skies becoming Sunny by Fri aftn, and clear Fri night. Max temps Fri will likely occur before midday Fri, with a few 70 degree readings possible, slowly falling during the aftn as CAA helps counter the downslope warming action. The sfc pg relaxes Fri night as the center of high pressure approaches from the west. Should observe widespread low to mid 30s for Fri night lows, especially if winds potential decouple during the pre-dawn Sat hrs.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Flow aloft becomes more zonal this weekend allowing sfc features to progress. The sfc high slides of the Carolina Coasts Sat followed by a CFP Sun, with the CF itself well away from its parent low in Canada. This CFP will be a dry one, with only mid or high level clouds possible. Near normal temps Sat followed by a warmup, above normal temps Sun prior to the CFP. CAA late Sun into Sun night to bring back temps to near normal for Mon as high pressure ridges in from the north. Zonal flow gives way to amplifying ridging across the Central U.S. that may translate eastward with time. Nevertheless, looking at a decent milder/above normal trend for the mid-week period as a stationary front potentially becomes established just north of the FA.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Generally VFR expected through 00Z Friday. However, restrictions from low clouds/fog are a low to moderate probability overnight, mainly after 03Z. Most of the rain late tonight into Thu morning associated with an inland-progressing coastal trough should remain south/west of the terminals with KFLO having the best chance. Rain chances should ramp up later Thursday though as the trough moves farther inland as a warm front and deeper moisture/mid-level shortwave forcing impact the area from the west, starting mostly in SC and then spreading north/east into NC by the end of the period, although likely staying SW of KILM.

Extended Forecast... IFR restrictions expected Thursday night as showers increase from SW to NE across the region. A few thunderstorms are also possible Thursday night into early Friday, mainly near the coast. VFR returns on Friday and continues through the weekend.

MARINE

Through Thursday... Warm front develops over the waters and moves inland early Thursday. This will bring a gradual veering of wind direction as well as wind speed. Both wind and seas will be approaching advisory levels towards the end of the period. The current dominant 9-10 second swell will take a backseat to the increasing wind chop Thursday.

Thursday Night through Sunday...SCA conditions well entrenched across the FA as SSE-SSW winds howl across the local waters. Gusts to 30+ kt over SSTs in the 60s not out of the question. May be a bit more difficult over nearshore SSTs in the low to mid 50s. However these cooler waters and 60+ sfc dewpoints advecting overhead could lead to sea fog, especially the nearshore waters off Surf City south to Murrells Inlet Thu night. As SW winds veer to W prior to the CFP Fri, look for this potential sea fog to disperse Fri morning. Seas will peak in the 4 to 8 ft range Thu night into early Fri. As winds become NW after the CFP, look for seas to subside given the offshore wind trajectory.

Winds diminish to a N-NE direction Fri night thru Sat as the highs center slides off the VA-NC coasts. Rather messy pressure field late Sat thru Sat night, will lead to a variable direction, however will highlight a "best" wind direction in the fcst. Seas will further subside to A dry CFP slated for Sun followed by a tightened sfc pg and CAA Sun night as sfc high builds across the waters from the north. This could lead to another SCA event. Seas will subside to 3 ft or less Sat thru early Sun followed by a building trend thru Sun night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Thursday to 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256.