textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Chances of rain have been lowered on Friday and Saturday, while raised for early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers likely on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

2) Shower chances will increase over the latter half of the weekend as a disturbance moves across the Southeast followed by a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Showers likely on Thursday ahead of a cold front.

High rain chances still in store for Thursday as a deepening mid to upper level trough pushes a cold front closer. Increasing upper-level support will produce heavier showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead of the front, however the severe potential is not particularly high due to the early timing of the precip, cloud cover and deep-layer flow being parallel to the front. Cooler and drier air will follow behind the front for Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Shower chances will increase over the latter half of the weekend as a disturbance moves across the Southeast followed by a cold front.

May see a couple of waves of low pressure run across the deep South into the Southeast over the weekend. Looks like the main shower activity on Saturday should remain south, with more in the way of possible clouds in our area. By Sunday, rain chances will increase as a shortwave tracks across the Southeast followed by a cold front moving in from the northwest. Models are not aligned with the exact evolution of these features including the timing of the cold frontal passage, but overall expect some clouds and potential for showers or thunderstorms in spots over the weekend, especially later on Sunday potentially into Monday.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. SSW to SW winds will dominate over the next 24 hours, with gusts starting to become more apparent by 14- 15Z this morning. These gusts reach their peak of 20-23 kts by 18- 21Z this afternoon, before coming back down after sunset this evening. Typical afternoon cumulus may become BKN at 4000-5000 ft at times, with more cirrus streaming in from the west throughout the day. Cloud ceilings look to thicken up and perhaps drop a bit towards the end of the period, but no threat to the flight category just yet.

Extended Forecast...Ceilings may come down into MVFR across KFLO and KLBT going into sunrise Thursday morning. Widespread restrictions expected throughout the day Thursday, due to rain and storms with the next frontal system. These chances come down Friday and Saturday, but come back up slightly by Sunday. May have to contend with fog or low stratus in the mornings.

MARINE

Through tonight... Moderate breeze out of the SSW veers slightly to the SW by this afternoon, increasing to a fresh breeze over the offshore waters out 60 nm by late tonight. Gusts may approach near gale over these same offshore waters late tonight, but a warning is not warranted at this time. Seas at 2-3 ft will increase up to 3-4 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, 4-5 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.

Thursday through Sunday... Winds and seas ramp up slightly through the day Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Confidence is low to moderate for gusts to 25 kt and/or seas up to 6 ft late Thursday over the 0-20 NM coastal waters - not confident enough to issue a third period headline attm. As usual conditions will be slightly worse over the 20-60 NM waters, but confidence is low that a Gale Warning will be needed, as the NW flow behind the front doesn't look to be higher in magnitude than the pre-frontal winds. Marine conditions (winds and seas) improve for Friday into the weekend, though rain chances will return over the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.