textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing on the potential for an isolated flash flooding event today through Saturday night. Expanded the Flood Watch to include Horry, Williamsburg, Georgetown, Florence, Marion, and Dillon Counties in northeast SC. The watch has also been extended until 8 AM EDT Saturday. A moderate risk (threat level 3/4) of excessive rainfall is possible east and south of I-95 through Saturday morning.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion was updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Stalled out front along the coast will bring an isolated flash flood threat through Saturday night.

- 2) Forecast begins to dry out Sunday into early next week, with heat returning.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Forecast begins to dry out Sunday into early next week, with heat returning.

The front finally starts to push into the Atlantic Sunday, aided by deepening surface low pressure. Forecast gradually drys out Sunday through Tuesday. As a result, heat is on the rise, and triple digit heat indices become a factor again as early as Monday. Another frontal system may bring back some rain chances by midweek.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Pretty complicated 24hr TAF period as a front stall across the area. For the next 6hrs:

Inland terminals should experience predominant IFR perhaps LIFR due to stratus with intermittent light rain that could make it to the surface and impact VSBYs but not seeing much of that now. Waves of heavier rain are passing by to the north with some upstream to the west moving slowly, will have to see how that holds together. Most likely site to be impacted is KLBT.

Coastal terminals starting to dip into the typical SCT/BKN MVFR CIGs, may need amends to avoid complicating TAFs further of I'll just go with predominant restrictions. Otherwise storms look to be more of an issue towards the Fri morning/afternoon hours rather than overnight. KILM is the terminal that could be most impacted through the next 6hrs but it looks like it will be more towards dawn from stuff slowly moving in from the west.

Headed into Friday we'll have to deal with more hit or miss showers/storms but with the atmosphere so moist VSBYs will be heavily impacted should rain move over any terminals. These rain chances in the TAFs will likely need tweaking with the next update to try to target higher/lower confidence times, but for now restrictions will be possible at all terminals during the day. There could be a period of drier conditions (but still CIG restrictions) Fri night with activity possible at the coast.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to storms expected through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoons and evenings. Conditions should start to dry out Monday with predominant VFR returning, and prevailing through Tuesday.

MARINE

Friday through Tuesday...A front will stall near the coast with light S/SW winds prevailing and seas calming to largely 2-3 ft. The main threat to mariners will be gusty winds and drops in visibility due to moderate to heavy rain. The front is expected to eventually drop south of our area with some uncertainty with timing. For now it looks like Sunday the winds will become northerly briefly behind the front before another approaches and S/SW flow builds back in through early next week. Seas remain largely 2-3 ft through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for SCZ024-032-033-039- 054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.