textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecasts were updated a couple hours ago to account for the widespread convection and heavy rain falling across portions of Bladen and Robeson counties. Latest HRRR confirms earlier HREF ensemble ideas of new showers developing overnight along the SC coast and spreading up into the coastal Cape Fear area late tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

A mid/upper level trough across the Southeast U.S. will persist through Sunday with a high PWAT environment in place. This will lead to a few rounds of mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Friday through Sunday. An increasingly diffuse front will drift into the area as well, and H3 RRQ would aid convection. The high PWATs support the potential for heavy rainfall at times, and the area is highlighted in a Slight ERO Friday. Probabilistic precipitation plots show a potential high end range of 2 to 6+ inches across northeast SC and southeast NC through Sunday morning. A Flood Watch may need to be considered but at this time the the more extreme amounts are very localized.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

Heat and humidity will return next week as the mid/upper ridge becomes established east of the MS Valley. The forecast area may observe highs in the mid to possibly upper 90s by Tuesday through Thursday. The heat, coupled with the higher humidity, may prompt another round of area-wide Heat Advisories.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

An intense cluster of thunderstorms between KLBT and KFAY could sag south bringing short-lived MVFR/IFR conditions to KLBT before activity dissipates around 02z. Convection in the KFLO vicinity should dissipate by 01z with a lesser chance for direct impacts on the Florence airport.

Along the coast, patches of low stratocumulus with bases 1500-2500 feet AGL have a low potential to bring MVFR ceilings this evening. Models show some potential for showers currently in the KCHS area to move NE and affect the Myrtle Beach airports after 02z, perhaps even the KILM airport after 04z.

There is a moderate potential for IFR ceilings to develop around sunrise Friday at both KLBT and KFLO. These ceilings will only slowly improve through the morning hours, becoming VFR by mid afternoon with scattered thunderstorms expected to develop again during the heat of the day.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as well, diurnally enhanced Saturday and Sunday (lesser chances Monday and Tuesday).

MARINE

Through Tuesday...S-SWly flow will prevail tonight through Friday with a nearly stationary front across the inland Carolinas and high pressure far offshore. This front will gradually shift to the coast and become increasingly diffuse. With the old front in the vicinity light/variable winds will prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of S-SWly winds potentially increasing to around 15 knots by Tuesday, especially across the NC waters. Seas will be 3 ft or less through much of the period given the light winds and lack of any significant swells.

CLIMATE

Wilmington, NC is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently 0.1 deg F above 2011's average, the current record-hottest summer season.

#1 2026 81.9 deg F (with four days to go) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.