textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record warm temperatures and persistently dry weather may create fire weather hazards this week.

2) A strong east-southeast moving cold front, accompanied by scattered convection, is expected to traverse the area during midday Sunday, before sliding off the Carolina coasts by mid afternoon. A cooler airmass will follow with a period of below normal temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday night.

..................Fri Apr 17

Sat Apr 18 Wilmington.........89 in 2006...93 in 1976 Lumberton..........91 in 2006...91 in 1941 Florence...........93 in 2006...93 in 1981 N Myrtle Beach.....87 in 1995...89 in 1976

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong east-southeast moving cold front, accompanied by scattered convection, is expected to traverse the area during midday Sunday, before sliding off the Carolina coasts by mid afternoon. A cooler airmass will follow with a period of below normal temperatures Sunday night through Tuesday night.

An expanding upper trof from Hudson Bay of Canada, will help drive a relatively fast moving sfc cold front, well away from its attendant sfc low, across the area from late morning Sun (along I-95) to late afternoon Sun (offshore waters). Scattered convection remains possible along it but moisture will be limited, ie. no drought busters with this pcpn activity. After FROPA, 1030+ mb Canadian high pressure will build across the area from the NW with the best CAA Sun night into early Mon followed by neutral advection thereafter. Contrary prior to the CFP, temperatures will run below normal come Mon morning thru Tue. In fact, widespread 40s for both Mon and Tue morning lows, along with a threat for a sub-40 degree low reading in those sheltered areas Mon morning especially if sfc winds are able to drop below 5 mph. daytime highs will struggle to reach 70 Mon with low 70s for Tue highs.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. Persistence forecast for the upcoming 24 hour period. SW winds will turn southerly behind an afternoon sea breeze with gusts up to 20 knots at the coast. Winds are a bit more westerly on Friday, so the sea breeze should be more confined to the coast. Only impact from this change will be ILM where a slower sea breeze and SSW wind are expected.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through the weekend due to high pressure. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning. A cold front will bring the potential for light showers on Sunday.

MARINE

Through Friday...Bermuda high pressure will begin to move offshore tonight into Friday. Southwesterly winds will likely mix to the surface for our new 20-60 offshore waters forecast zones where the warmer Gulf Stream exists. Nearshore zones will see southerly winds weaken after sunset once the sea breeze circulation dampens. Surface winds will have a bit more westerly component on Friday in flatter flow aloft and a weak surface high over the FL panhandle. Winds turn southerly near the coast in an afternoon sea breeze. Seas generally 3-4 feet today, falling to 2-3 feet on Friday. Inlets could be choppy.

Friday Night through Monday Night...Weak high pressure to prevail thru Fri night thru early Sat. Active sea breeze will be ongoing Fri evening but should fade by midnight leaving light SW winds thruout, 10-15 kt, including offshore zones, thru Sat. Another active sea breeze Sat aftn/evening will push winds to 15-20 kt nearshore. ESE swell at 8 second periods to dominate seas spectrum except possibly nearshore due to sea breeze wind chop.

Sat night thru Sun night, looking at a tightening of the sfc pg prior to and after the cold frontal passage. Low level SW winds 25-35 kt Sat night into Sun will keep SW winds active coastal and offshore waters, possibly pushing gusts to SCA thresholds for the coastal waters dependent on their frequency. Cold front pushes off the mainland between 2pm and 4 pm Sun and well offshore by 6 to 8 pm Sun. Post frontal CAA will combine with the tightened sfc pg to produce SCA conditions across the coastal waters into Mon morning. The gradient will relax Mon aftn and night as the center of the high approaches from the NW, ending the SCA threat. Seas during this time will be governed by mainly wind driven short period waves with a continued underlying small ESE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.