textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a storm system approaches the area.

2) Heat and humidity will build and heat indices could exceed 100 degrees yet again.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend as a front/system approaches the area. The somewhat zonal pattern that has been in place the past several days begins to amplify. Even today some sea breeze showers cannot be ruled out in the favored areas. By Friday a southwest flow will be in place as troughing develops and or moves into the Mississippi Valley. The slow moving nature of the system both the ridge and trough make slow progress make a soggy weekend in the offing. The usual caveat that it isn't going to rain all day or night holds here as well.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Mid level ridging builds across the region again next week after the unsettled weather. It appears the temperatures have cooled both highs and lows under basically dry conditions.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in mostly VFR conditions through 12Z Friday. Confidence is a bit lower regarding fog/low clouds early this morning (mainly at KFLO) and again late tonight (mainly at KFLO/KLBT) as well as showers/storms into the evening (mainly near the coast at KCRE/KMYR/KILM).

Extended Outlook... Although VFR conditions will prevail, there is increasing potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms bringing brief MVFR/IFR conditions, especially Saturday and Sunday. There is also a low potential for late night/early morning stratus or ground fog, particularly affecting KLBT and KFLO Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

Tonight through Monday...A southerly component will be in place for the foreseeable future across the coastal waters. The southwest flow will not be particularly strong ten knots or less. Winds and seas may be distorted by convection at times especially this weekend with the higher pops. Significant seas will otherwise be 2-4 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.