textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussion updated for 18Z TAFS and new forecast cycle but key messages remain the same.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and scattered severe tstorm chances to continue again this afternoon.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and scattered severe tstorm chances to continue again this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Scattered showers and storms moving into the area from the west may organize in to clusters that could produce damaging winds this afternoon into this evening. Before that, apparent temperatures will approach or exceed 105 degrees at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will drop into the area Sunday into Monday, providing for an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into Mon. Weak high pressure will ridge in from the north late Monday into midweek, providing a return to more typical temperatures for this time of year.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR but scattered showers and storms could bring tempo MVFR or very brief IFR conditions this afternoon into the evening. Storms could be accompanied by wind gusts of 35 KT or greater, especially at inland terminals. VFR tonight into early Sunday with light SW winds and scattered clouds.

Extended Forecast...Showers and tstorms become more numerous Sunday afternoon into Monday leading to periodic flight restrictions as a cold front drops thru the area. High pressure to slowly build into the region by midweek on with a gradual return to summer-like conditions.

MARINE

SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts are expected into Sunday with higher speeds possible outside 20 NM. As high pressure builds into the area late Monday into Tuesday, winds will diminish to 10 KT or less over much of the waters and become variable in nature. Seas look to peak at 4 FT within 20 NM and 5 FT outside 20 NM through Monday before subsiding for the middle of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.