textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A strong cold front will move through the area over the next few hours. Northerly winds behind the cold front have been increased. Rain chances have also increased as anafrontal showers develop this morning and continue through this afternoon. Updated QPF remains light.

Storm Watch upgraded to a Storm Warning for the offshore NC zones. A Gale Warning remains in effect for all other marine zones, see the warning text for additional information on timing and impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions.

A strong cold front will move through the area this morning. Light showers are expected to develop behind the front and continue through this afternoon. The initial surge of northerly winds could produce gusts up to 30 knots across the area today.

The cold front moves offshore later today and a coastal low will develop along the boundary. With high pressure over the Mid-Atlantic and low pressure offshore, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend and into early next week. Wind gusts along the immediate coast could exceed 40 mph on Sunday. A Wind Advisory may be needed during this period. Light rain or drizzle should remain offshore as the coastal low expands into early next week. The enhanced winds should also lead to dangerous surf conditions into early next week with at least 6 ft breaking wave heights along east-facing beaches.

For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A strong cold front is currently working its way through the central Carolinas. The initial surge of NW winds will gust to 20-25 knots with CIGs initially maintains VFR prior to 12Z. MVFR will develop this morning as light rain moistens the low levels thereafter. Some IFR is possible, but continual dry air advection at the surface will tend to fight this trend.

Showers are expected through early afternoon, decreasing in coverage by late afternoon. MVFR CIGs will continue through early evening. Dry air will gradually bring a return to VFR conditions by 04Z in most locations. The biggest impact will be strong northerly flow with gusts to 30 knots at times throughout the period.

Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions by Saturday night. A nor'easter offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds, but should be far enough away to prevent sub- VFR conditions through midweek.

MARINE

A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters this morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by this afternoon. The nor'easter will linger offshore through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon today to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon today to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Warning from 8 AM Sunday to 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ280.