textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs. Model confidence is converging with the next front expected to arrive Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week.

2) A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday could bring a chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and above normal temperatures will continue through the end of the week.

A 500 mb ridge centered today across Florida should expand northward over the next couple of days, leading to sustained dry weather and above normal temperatures across the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure will maintain a warm south to southwesterly surface wind direction. The beaches will remain considerably cooler than inland areas due to onshore flow and daily seabreezes off water temperatures still in the 60s.

High temperatures in the 80s each day through Sunday have a reasonably good chance of exceeding 90 degrees Friday and Saturday, both days when models suggest the upper ridge will be at its strongest across the eastern Carolinas. There should be too little deep moisture present during the passage of an upper disturbance Thursday night for any rain chances to develop.

Record highs within 2 degrees or being tied/broken later this week:

Wilmington: Friday Apr 17 record high is 89 from 2006.

Florence: Thursday Apr 16 record high 90 from 2006, and Saturday April 18's record high is 93 from 1981.

Lumberton: Friday Apr 17 record high is 91 from 2006, and Saturday Apr 18's record high is 91 from 1941

KEY MESSAGE 2: A cold front expected to arrive next Sunday could bring a chance of showers and a cooler airmass early next week.

The latest GFS, Canadian, and ECMWF are in good agreement showing a strong upper trough moving eastward through the Great Lakes on Sunday, April 19. Height falls ahead of this feature should flatten the Southeast U.S. upper ridge early next week. Given the orientation of the flow ahead of the trough there's only a very limited potential for Gulf inflow ahead of the its passage on Sunday. A surface cold front should move across the eastern Carolinas sometime Sunday, accompanied by what looks to be our only non-zero precipitation chances over the coming seven days. Even then we're only talking about a 20 percent chance Sunday afternoon and evening.

Three-week rainfall totals of 0.2 to 0.6 inches are only 10 to 30 percent of normal values. Six month rainfall is 9 inches below normal in Wilmington and almost 11 inches below normal in North Myrtle Beach. Ongoing drought, currently classified across our portion of the Carolinas as D1 (moderate drought) to D2 (severe drought) could worsen in the weeks ahead.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR through 12z TAFs with increasing high clouds today and a few fair weather cumulus clouds. Early morning fog will affect some of the terminals for a few hours heading into sunrise today and again Tues morning. Mainly expect some MVFR, but LBT was down to LIFR this morning but will clear out by 13z. Winds will be S to SW around 10 kts with gusts to around 15 kts along the coast, especially in sea breeze each aftn.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR. High pressure will dominate this upcoming week. Only exception could be some MVFR or even IFR fog heading into sunrise each morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...ESE winds gradually veer to the SSW through this afternoon, lingering around 10 kts the whole time, but with some higher gusts. Seas will remain 1 to 3 ft with a persistent ESE swell at 8 to 10 seconds.

Tuesday through Friday...Bermuda high pressure will maintain control of the weather along the Southeast coast through the remainder of this week. The high should sit essentially over Bermuda with a 1024 mb central pressure through early Thursday before weakening slightly later Thursday night into Friday. For the Carolinas, southwest winds are expected through the week with wind speeds varying from around 10 kt during the mornings to as much as 15-20 kt nearshore during the afternoons and evenings due to daily seabreezes. These values come from Marine MOS Guidance based on GFS and NAM models. The atmosphere aloft should remain too warm and dry to support any showers or thunderstorms through at least Friday.

Seas within 20 miles of shore should consist of an east- southeasterly 10 second swell plus local short period wind chop. Combined sea heights of 2-3 feet are expected.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.