textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated. Overall forecast thinking remains similar.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Storms on Tuesday, followed by unsettled conditions mid-week trending cool and dry for the weekend.

Ill-defined 5h cutoff lingering over central FL today will weaken and eventually begin drifting northeast tonight into Tue. An enhanced area of deeper moisture and some PVA associated with the cutoff will rotate onshore later today. While these features are weak, the timing does open the door for isolated weak afternoon showers along the coast, especially the SC coast where PVA is strongest. What's left of the 5h low, along with its moisture and weak PVA, brush the area Tue, increasing rain chances. Best chances will be afternoon and evening when surface based instability peaks. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a risk, severe weather potential is very low.

Rain chances remain elevated Wed following the passage of a cold front, driven south by a 5h trough early Wed. Post front a cooler, more stable air mass arrives with a wedge setting up at some point Wed. More likely to see true rain Wed/Thu vs convection, although forecast soundings suggest at least some potential for elevated convection Wed, especially near the coast, as the 5h trough axis passes. The trough ends up cutoff just off the Mid-Atlantic coast for the later half of the week. Deep dry air and cooler temperatures follow, leading to a stretch of dry weather with below normal temperatures for the end of the week and the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Expect VFR to continue through today and into tonight with isolated showers and perhaps a thunderstorm possible near the coast as the sea breeze develops amd shifts inland this afternoon. Confidence is too low for an impact to include PROB30 groups, but a brief restriction cannot be ruled out if a small shower happens to pass over a terminal. Another chance for low cigs and fog exists tonight, although increasing winds and the arrival of showers near the coast later in the night will limit this potential. Confidence is low to moderate at this time, with the best chances anticipated at inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...Low cigs/vsby restrictions may linger into Tuesday mid-morning, followed by a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain from Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Waters remain under the influence of an ill-defined pressure gradient into Tue night before the passage of a cold front ushers in an extended period of enhanced northeast flow. Gradient remains tight into the weekend with low pressure lingering offshore. Headlines will likely be required at some point on Wed and given the strength and duration of the northerly flow seas could require several days of headlines before conditions slowly improve over the weekend. Currently does not appear winds will reach gale thresholds, Wed night or Thu, but something to keep an eye on.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.