textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible, especially Sunday afternoon and evening.

2) Potential tropical cyclone development of the southeast U.S. coast during the upcoming week.

3) Heat and humidity will continue Sunday, and especially toward the end of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few strong to severe thunderstorms possible, especially Sunday afternoon and evening.

While we may have to contend with a few strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening the focus will shift to a MCV expected to move across NC during Sunday. There should be sufficient instability coincident with ample moisture to create scattered showers and thunderstorms. A MCV, weak front/trough, and the sea breeze will provide the lift. Currently, SPC highlights the entire forecast area in a Marginal Risk. The primary severe weather type would be damaging wind gusts.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Area of potential tropical cyclone development of the southeast U.S. coast during the upcoming week.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeast United States coast during the upcoming week and it could attain tropical characteristics as it drifts toward the west through mid-week. NHC is highlighting a 20% chance formation in the Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, and uncertainty with its development and any subsequent impacts is high at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Heat and humidity will continue Sunday, and especially toward the end of the upcoming week.

Heat indices will approach Heat Advisory thresholds during Sunday as highs in the mid 90s coupled with the humidity will make conditions uncomfortable. It looks like there will be some reprieve from the heat Monday and Tuesday then the heat and humidity will return Wednesday, but more-so Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Broken line of showers and thunderstorms approaching LBT will affect the terminal within the next hour. Likely to be more SHRA vs TSRA, but isolated lightning remains possible. Line will continue to weaken as it moves east, likely dissipating before reaching ILM. VFR will persist through the evening at remaining sites. Anticipate mostly VFR overnight with brief MVFR ceiling possible, mainly LBT where the bulk of today's rainfall occurred. Some of the high resolution guidance is showing some overnight development of storms along lingering boundaries across SE NC. While the potential is low, a shower could affect ILM in the pre-dawn hours with potential for MVFR ceiling and visibility. Have not included within the TAFs given low probability, but there is potential.

Southwest winds continue Sun with storms likely to develop in the afternoon and continue into the evening. Coverage is such that it is likely all terminals will be impacted at some point, but nature of convection makes picking out a specific time difficult. Cold front will be approaching from the northwest as the valid TAF period ends.

Extended Forecast...Low stratus possible Monday morning following the passage of the front, confidence is low. Visibility and ceiling restrictions possible with isolated afternoon storms Monday, although coverage will be limited. Confidence is low. VFR Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

SWly flow will prevail across the coastal/offshore waters for the remainder of today through Sunday. The pressure gradient will make it very choppy during this time with seas around 4 ft most areas. Storms are expected to move off the coast by Sunday evening, skewing the wind field at times until a front moves off the coast and shifts offshore. NEly flow will develop in its wake during Monday. NEly flow could be prolonged Monday night into Wednesday given the potential low development off the southeast U.S. coast. This low is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center for potential tropical transition as it drifts toward the west.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.