textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all coastal communities through 10 AM EST. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory for all nearshore waters continues through 10 AM EST. There is a small chance for severe weather in afternoon storms on Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm and muggy through the middle of next week. Nighttime fog may be dense each day, with periods of dense sea fog.

2) Rain chances increasing Sunday as a weakening cold front moves into the area. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms especially across northern portions of the forecast area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Warm and muggy through the middle of next week. Nighttime fog may be dense each day, with periods of dense sea fog.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Persistent forecast through most of next week courtesy of Bermuda high pressure providing continued advection of warm, moist air. Well above normal temperatures, with inland temps in the low 80s into the middle of next week, with afternoon sea breeze keeping the immediate coastline in the low to mid 70s. Low temps each night around 60F. High temperature records should remain safe today with most of the area's climatological maximums in the mid and upper 80s.

Forecast remains dry today due to ridging aloft. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible tomorrow through Tuesday, due to daytime heating and sea breeze, as the mid-level ridge flattens and subsidence weakens.

Dense fog will be possible each night and morning into next week due to dewpoints in the 60s and high pressure keeping winds relatively light. High dewpoints will also contribute to periods dense sea fog over the coastal waters each day into next week, which will impact navigation and may move onshore and impact coastal areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances increasing Sunday as a weakening cold front moves into the area. There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms especially across northern portions of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A minor shortwave moving into the Carolinas will help push a weakening cold front into the forecast area Sunday, possibly stalling by Monday. A slug of deeper moisture is noted on time- height cross sections during this time which should support at least scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms. Low- level convergence is expected to remain on the weak side but could be enough instability and effective shear to support isolated severe storms. Confidence is low at this time since the northern part of the forecast area is on the edge of the SPC Marginal Risk depiction which is centered across central and eastern NC.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Sea fog has already started to impact coastal areas and this should extend into the Grand Strand terminals shortly. Restrictions are expected first at CRE/MYR/ILM, approaching minimums near sunrise. Radiation fog will spread inland early this morning with widespread fog likely by sunrise. Some of this fog could be dense.

Conditions begin to improve around 14Z, possibly later for coastal terminals where sea fog persists. VFR will dominate the late morning and afternoon for all terminals. More fog is expected tonight, developing in a similar fashion.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected for much of the daytime period into next week, but periods of radiational fog inland and onshore movement of sea fog at the coast will bring night/early morning flight restrictions.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Light southerly winds continue through tonight with seas around 2-3 feet. Sea fog continues to be the primarily concern for all nearshore waters through tonight. A Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 10 AM EST, but sea fog remains possible thereafter. Fog chances will be at their minimum during the afternoon, but another round of fog, some dense, is likely to return this evening.

Sunday through Wednesday... A SWly fetch will prevail during Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front which is expected to stall and dissipate. As a result, SWly flow will persist Monday and Tuesday but with speeds around 10 kt. The pressure gradient will tighten by Wednesday night between another cold front and high pressure far offshore. Good chance the coastal waters will see Small Craft conditions Wednesday night and as the flow veers offshore in the wake of the front during Thursday. Seas will be around 4 ft Sunday, 3-4 ft Monday, and around 3 ft Tuesday through Wednesday morning. Seas will build to 6-7 ft as the aforementioned pressure gradient increases Wednesday night into Thursday. The developing offshore flow should allow for a greater range in seas as the fetch becomes limited.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ106-108- 110. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ250-252- 254-256.