textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Beneficial rainfall will occur Sunday into Monday, although confidence in rainfall amounts remains low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beneficial rainfall arrives Sunday and continues into Monday. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Beneficial rainfall arrives Sunday and continues into Monday. Confidence in rainfall amounts remains low.

Beneficial rain will arrive on Sunday. The consistent presence of a southern stream system with ample moisture breeds high confidence in a widespread and extended period of rainfall. Latest guidance maintains a stacked low traversing the mid south and southeastern US through early Monday. Rainfall will begin as showers late Sunday morning and early Sunday afternoon before transitioning to a steadier rain on Sunday evening. Showers will likely linger through Monday morning as the low moves offshore.

For rainfall amounts, confidence remains low. Ensemble QPF totals continue to trend downward as the potential for convective showers diminishes in evaluated members. Moisture remains plentiful, but the bulk of weak elevated instability remains suppressed to our south. Some instability may sneak into our area, mainly coastal areas of NC and SC on Sunday evening. This would enhance rainfall rates and be reflected in event totals come Monday. Utilizing the 25th percentile, MUCAPE is maximized along the immediate coast at around 50 J/kg from 00Z-06Z Monday. With instability residing over such a short period and mostly enhancing parcels warmer than 0C, rainfall totals could end up being rather uniform, but some locally higher amounts remain possible.

The 25th percentile and mean of ensembles have both decreased since the previous forecast, but the 75th and 90th percentiles remain consistent due to the potential for convective showers. Generally expect less than an inch of rain with closer to a half of an inch in the southern Pee Dee region.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR with high pressure build in from the north and winding up overhead. Winds becoming increasingly light to near calm tonight, turning to the SW Saturday while remaining below 10kt.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions continue through Saturday with high pressure prevailing. Flight restrictions are possible later Saturday night into Monday as a low pressure system affects the area. VFR returns early next week.

MARINE

Through Saturday... High pressure building in from the north. Winds will continue to grow lighter through tonight while very slowly veering. The veering will be more pronounced Saturday as the center moves offshore.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night... Onshore flow increases on Saturday night as high pressure moves offshore and low pressure tracks eastward through the southeastern US. The gradient will tighten on Sunday evening as the low strengthens over AL/GA. This will promote a few gusts to near 25 knots, but seas will likely exceed 6 feet given the extended southerly fetch. Seas will remain elevated through Monday evening or late Monday night. Northerly winds will keep winds elevated through early Tuesday. Light winds return late Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.