textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. Headline section updated for Beach Hazards Statement and High Risk for Rip Currents.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional light rain today and Thursday with cool temperatures, drying out for Friday into the weekend with continued below normal temperatures.

2) A developing coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Occasional light rain today and Thursday with cool temperatures, drying out for Friday into the weekend with continued below normal temperatures.

Light rain has been sparse to come by as mid level low pressure in the Tennessee Valley and exiting short wave troughing seemingly had created this lull in between. The closed low although not the most prolific rainmaker upstream is producing some activity and this will move across later tonight and Thursday morning. The NE flow...strong at times will take it from here.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A developing coastal storm off the Mid- Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions this week.

Latest sfc analysis shows 1011 mb low pressure centered directly east of NC. This low will strengthen as it slides northeastward, with the tightening pressure gradient between that and sfc high pressure well off to the north leading to increasing winds and seas. Strong NNE winds and increasing astronomical tides will lead to hazardous marine and coastal conditions, including minor coastal flooding potential and dangerous rip currents, especially north of Cape Fear where high surf is also possible. See marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in restrictions from low clouds most, if not all, of the 00Z TAF period. Mainly MVFR cigs are expected but periods of IFR are likely as well, especially inland at KLBT/KFLO overnight into Thu morning. Some mainly light rain and/or drizzle is also expected at times but shouldn't pose a significant risk for vsby restrictions. Otherwise, breezy N winds anticipated with gusts up near 30 kt at times, mainly near the coast Thu aftn.

Extended Outlook...Moderate chance late Thursday through early Friday of MVFR Conditions. Mainly VFR expected thereafter as low pressure pushes farther away from the area.

MARINE

A potent NE flow will become even stronger as low pressure phases offshore later Thursday. Gale Watches have been upgraded to warnings for most areas. Southernmost coastal waters should escape with small craft conditions with healthy gusts however. Wave heights will increase from the current 2-6 feet to 5-10 feet (coast to outer waters) in time with the stronger winds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252-280-284. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.