textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

Confidence increasing in some much-needed rainfall this weekend and early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire weather concerns continue for much of this week due to very dry conditions and severe to extreme drought. Fire Danger Statement in effect today for southeast NC.

2) Best rain chances/amounts in quite some time likely this weekend and early next week, although no significant impact on the drought expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated fire weather concerns continue for much of this week due to very dry conditions and severe to extreme drought. Fire Danger Statement in effect today for southeast NC.

Low humidity and ongoing drought will contribute to continued elevated fire weather concerns across the area. Minimum relative humidities will fall below 30% each afternoon through Friday, away from the coast. Thursday will have the lowest RHs due to westerly downslope flow keeping sea breeze pinned, with min RH forecasted around 20%. Wind gusts near 20 mph this afternoon will add to fire weather concerns, and a Fire Danger Statement is in effect for southeast NC. A burn ban remains in effect for both North and South Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Best rain chances/amounts in quite some time likely this weekend and early next week, although no significant impact on the drought expected. A cold front should move through Sat night with another cold front possible toward mid week which should bring the best rain chances we've seen in a while. Although rain amounts are still uncertain this far out, the NBM indicates ~30-40% chance of at least 0.5" for Sat night/Sun with a 20-30% chance of similar amounts for Tue/Tue night. Unfortunately total rainfall through the period likely won't do much to improve the drought but certainly nice to see a wetter weather pattern than we've seen of late. Will also need to keep an eye on at least a low risk for severe storms Tue when instability/shear look to be enhanced.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR, with any isolated fog this morning mixing out quickly. Southwest winds 5-10 kts during the day with gusts to 15 kt. A few gusts to 20 kts possible later in the afternoon, particularly at coastal terminals. SW winds around 5 kts persist through tonight.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. Flight restrictions possible Saturday into Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Southwest winds 10-15 kts this morning across the local waters will increase this afternoon to 15-20 kts. May see gusts around 25 kts over the waters off southeast NC coast out to 60nm late this afternoon into this evening as a surface trough approaches from the west. Winds turn westerly tonight, remaining around 15 to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft this morning slowly increase through tonight to 2-4 ft with building of southwesterly wind wave.

Thursday through Sunday Night...Offshore high pressure will prevail thru Sat with southerly flow, enhanced at times but gusts mainly staying below 25 kt. A cold front is still on track to move through Sat night into early Sun bringing another wind surge but both winds and seas look to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels within 20 nm once again.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.