textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

Extended period of well above normal weather starts on Wednesday as Bermuda high pressure becomes established and WAA kicks in. Temperatures will run roughly 15 degrees above normal, around 60F each night and 80F each afternoon (outside of immediate coastline where sea breeze will keep temps 5-10 degrees cooler) with dewpoints in the 60s. Guidance has trended towards the mid- level ridge just offshore becoming stronger and having more influence over our area. Therefore, pops have been lowered compared to the last few days with only isolated storm chances along and west of I-95 Friday and Saturday. Ridge weakens a bit after Saturday. Intermittent sea fog may impact the beaches Thursday into the weekend as the warm, moist air travels over the cool waters, particularly for Horry and Brunswick county beaches.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR conditions are expected to persist through much of the overnight and thru mid-late daytime morning Tue. Periodically, MVFR ceilings could scatter out to VFR but should fill back in during the pre-dawn Tue hrs. The timeline for possibly observing IFR ceilings will be from late overnight thru the mid daytime morning hours. should see a better improvement to the ceilings from the coast inland during Tue aftn as the wedge/CAD breaks down.

Extended Forecast...Periodic flight restrictions are likely to continue into Tuesday night before high pressure shifts off the coast and allows VFR to dominate through the end of the week. The fly in the ointment to this will be the possibility that sea fog could periodically move onshore, affecting the coastal terminals.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT, perhaps 20 KT near 20 NM this afternoon will become E-SE Tuesday at speeds of 10 KT or less. Seas of 3 to 5 FT this afternoon will subside to 2 to 4 FT Tuesday.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Outside of sea fog potential late week into next weekend, benign marine conditions in store for Tuesday night through next weekend. Light winds Wednesday become south- southwesterly Wednesday night through Saturday, generally in the 5-10 kt range. Seas linger around 3-4 ft as a 10 sec E swell. Dense sea fog will be possible over the local coastal waters Thursday into the weekend as warm, moist air travels over the cool waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.