textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Pops and severe potential have been lowered for tonight. The potential for severe storms and rainfall have increased for Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Isolated Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and again Tuesday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal trending toward possible heat advisory criteria later in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Isolated Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon and again Tuesday. Temperatures will be near or slightly above normal trending toward possible heat advisory criteria later in the week.

So far only isolated low topped convection mainly associated with the sea breeze has managed to develop across the region. The stronger convection will be developing soon well to the west associated with the stronger forcing moving across the Tennessee Valley. Pops have been lowered and severe potential seems to be diminishing for our area as what I think we will see is a dissipating broken line beyond sunset.

The severe/rain potential has increased for Tuesday afternoon as the remnants of the Tennessee Valley shortwave/forcing moves across during the early afternoon hours. While earlier high resolution had our NC counties well covered with convection some later panels show the main forcing moving just to our north. SPC has increased the potential to Marginal just to our north so this will need to be monitored closely as the aforementioned guidance has a couple updraft helicity swaths mixed in and seemingly for good reason.

As for the extended a west to northwest flow develops and kicks up the heat into heat advisory criteria and possible excessive heat warning numbers for the weekend. That being said convection associated with the flow seems to ramp up as well so expect somewhat of an active period.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions expected through the period. The only exceptions would be brief restrictions with decaying/isolated convection late this afternoon and overnight. Some lower stratus along the coast is possible early Tuesday as well but confidence is not sufficient to include with this iteration of the forecast.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible during scattered afternoon and evening storms on Tuesday and again on Friday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...A small craft advisory has been issued for Tuesday into the evening hours ahead of a cold front with increasing winds and seas. Both will be marginal.

Tuesday Night through saturday...A cold front moves through Tuesday night, quickly veering the winds to the NW and then NE by Wednesday morning, improving to a moderate breeze. Onshore flow begins again Wednesday evening, with seas improving to 2-3 ft. Winds veer to the SSW again Thursday night through Friday, increasing to a fresh breeze once more. Seas increase slightly to 3-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.