textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update for 00z aviation forecast discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through early next week. A rather weak coastal trough and a cold front won't be able to muster much precip through tonight. Dry W/NW flow will then be in place Thursday and Friday with temps near to slightly below normal. The only minor concern Thu/Fri will be low relative humidities dipping to around 25-30% each afternoon, but fortunately winds shouldn't be high enough to warrant an appreciable fire danger. A warming trend then ensues into the weekend through early next week with rising upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard and forecast high temps running above normal (mid to upr 80s) across inland areas. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support max heat indices much higher than air temps.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. A weak cold front will move through the area tonight which could bring increasing clouds overnight, especially northern areas. There is an outside shot at a shower and attendant MVFR but chances are too low for inclusion in the forecast attm. After the front moves through winds may gust over 15 KT after 15Z Thursday.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through Sunday. Perhaps there could be some patchy fog heading towards sunrise Saturday and Sunday mornings, but confidence on that idea is quite low.

MARINE

Through Thursday... A moderate breeze out of the NE to ENE will continue into this evening ahead of a weak cold front. Gradient winds loosen to a light to gentle breeze late this evening, as weak low pressure just offshore of SC Lowcountry will push further out into the Atlantic. These winds will quickly veer to the SSW as the front nears. Front starts pushing through the coastal waters a few hours before sunrise Thursday morning, where winds will veer to the west, increasing towards a moderate breeze again. Continued veering to the northwest will continue later in the morning after the front moves further east. Seas at 3-4 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm will come down to 2-3 ft by late Thursday afternoon, while 4-5 ft seas along the offshore waters out 60 nm will come down to 3-4 ft.

Thursday night through Monday... High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay 3-4 ft or less.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.