textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential exists through the weekend for minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon today.

2) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Potential exists through the weekend for minor coastal flooding during the evening high tides along the Lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches due to the new moon today.

Water levels along the Lower Cape Fear River near downtown Wilmington and at the beaches should reach above minor coastal flooding thresholds within a couple hours either side of the time of the evening high tides through the weekend. At the beaches, high tide occurs around 8 pm this evening and 9 pm Sunday evening. Along the Lower Cape Fear River, high tide takes place around 10 pm this evening and 11 pm Sunday evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through the end of next week.

Gradually strengthening mid-level ridge into the middle of next week will result in an extended period of temperatures above normal. Low level moisture will remain limited, keeping heat indices reasonable. Late in the week a shallow 5h trough crossing the Great Lakes will drag a cold front into the Southeast. Not much forcing with the front, but there is moisture, helping increase rain chances later Thu but more likely on Fri.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence exists in VFR prevailing through most of the period as the column remains dry other than some passing patches of cirrus from time to time. Light southerly winds will pick up out of S to SW by mid morning. SSE winds expected by afternoon Saturday along coastal terminals as the sea breeze develops and produces a slight backing and some higher gusts. Fog chances remain very low early this morning but as low level moisture begins to increase tonight, potential for fog will exist. For now included in FLO but confidence remains low.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. Early morning fog becomes possible from Sunday morning onward as low level moisture increases.

MARINE

Through tonight... Bermuda High pressure will dominate with a persistent southerly return flow setting up, remaining around 10 kts or so through today. Winds will back slightly and spike up with some higher gusts in the afternoon sea breeze near shore. Southeasterly 7 to 8 sec swells are expected to decrease somewhat through today with overall seas 3 ft or less.

Sunday through Wednesday... Bermuda High will maintain southerly flow across the waters through the middle of next week. Along the coast afternoon and evening speed increases can be expected due to heating, but speeds will remain under 15 kt. Seas 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.