textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Marine Dense Fog Advisory has expired. Aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An isolated late day strong to severe storm possible Sunday afternoon/evening.

2) Unseasonably warm through mid week; near-record overnight lows expected.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... An isolated late day strong to severe storm possible Sunday afternoon/evening.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A weakening cold front will is progged to move into central NC Sunday afternoon before stalling and dissipating overnight. Ahead of this boundary, a pre-frontal band of showers and storms is expected to develop during the afternoon across the Piedmont and Coastal plain sections as diurnal heating and weak destabilization of 500- 1000 J/KG of MLCAPE occur. Effective shear of ~30kts will be sufficient to support one or two weakly organized storms during the afternoon and early evening, before pushing offshore. While coverage may be isolated to widely- scattered, the strongest storms will pose a risk of locally damaging gusts and marginally severe hail.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Unseasonably warm through mid week; near-record overnight lows expected.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... While weak upper disturbances may bring periods of enhanced cloudiness and isolated-widely scattered convection Monday and Tuesday, Bermuda high pressure remains the dominate feature. Expect daytime highs to average 12 to 20 degrees above normal, peaking Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will likely reach the mid/upper 70s along the coast to lower/mid 80s inland by Wednesday as SW flow strengthens ahead of an approaching amplified trough and attendant cold front. While afternoon highs may fall shy of record values, overnight lows in the lower to mid 60s will likely challenge record high-minimum values.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Expect VFR conditions into this evening before low clouds redevelop overnight. Given that winds should remain up AOA 5 KT overnight, expect stratus AOB 1 KFT to develop at area terminals overnight. After sunrise, clouds should lift to VFR before the end of the valid taf period.

Extended Forecast...There could be restrictions with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorm Sunday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected for much of the daytime period into next week, but periods of radiational fog inland and onshore movement of sea fog at the coast will bring night/early morning flight restrictions.

MARINE

Through Sunday...light S winds this afternoon will become SW tonight Sunday while increasing to 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts. Confidence in widespread dense sea fog tonight is lower than the recent past due to higher wind speeds with a slightly different trajectory but we still should see low clouds offshore tonight. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will build to 2 to 4 FT tonight into Sunday. There could be a few showers around during the afternoon Sunday.

Sunday night through Thursday: A weakening cold front will stall and dissipate just west of the area Sunday night into Monday. This maintains the region under the influence of Bermuda high pressure, resulting in light SWLY flow through mid week. Seas will remain 3-4 ft with a dominate south- southwest swell.

Conditions deteriorate late Wednesday as a more robust cold front approaches from the west. The pressure gradient tightens significantly with SWLY winds strengthening ahead of the front. Small Craft conditions are likely to develop Wednesday night and persist into much of Thursday, with seas expected to build to 6-7 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.