textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Slight increases to the wind forecast have resulted in upgraded marine headlines for the offshore waters. Details in the marine section below. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions.

A strong cold front will move through tonight into Saturday morning bringing light rain to the area. Light rain/drizzle may remain possible for SE NC into early next week before the nor'easter moves further off to the north. In the meantime, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend. Wind speeds and gusts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with mainly marine impacts expected. Should the wind forecast continue to increase, there is a low possibility for a High Wind Advisory along the immediate coast Saturday through Sunday as sustained winds may exceed 30 mph. The enhanced winds could also lead to dangerous surf conditions (+6 ft breakers), mainly for east-facing beaches, through the weekend. Wind speeds should decrease slightly into early next week.

For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR through the next 6 hrs. A strong cold front will move through the area with winds going from SW to N 08-11Z, along with lowering CIGs (MVFR expected/IFR possible later into Saturday). Rain showers should develop ~12Z but rain should be light so not expecting VSBY restrictions. N winds will be strong Saturday, especially into the afternoon, with gusts near 30 kts possible.

Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions through Saturday night. A nor'easter to our east will maintain northeasterly flow, but should be far enough away to prevent sub-VFR conditions from materializing.

MARINE

A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters Saturday morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by Saturday afternoon. The nor'easter will linger to our east through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, marine conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on the pressure gradient.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ280.