textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAFs.

As of 2:30 AM EDT: Only minor changes for the new forecast period. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for downtown Cape Fear tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cooler and drier conditions will be in place the next few days followed by increasing chances for rain later in the coming weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cooler and drier conditions will be in place the next few days followed by increasing chances for rain later in the coming weekend into next week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The dynamic system bringing showers and thunderstorms to the region is slowly making its way south with a pre frontal trough currently moving southward. The actual front is a little behind just making its way through the western part of the state. Convection...non severe still wants to develop east west along the trough while drifting southward. Pops will take time to clear the region now shifting more toward 9-12 UTC. A cooler and drier airmass settles over the region through Saturday with highs in and around 90 and lows even dipping into the upper 60s in places. The warmer readings will be Friday and Saturday although still no threats to heat related headlines. By the end of the upcoming weekend and certainly into next week mid level troughing perhaps a closed low returns to the southeast with good rain chances/moisture advection returning to our area.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should dominate through Saturday. Flight restrictions possible Sunday due to convection associated with a frontal boundary lifting northward.

MARINE

Today through Saturday...Continued to advertise the Small Craft Advisory through the early morning hours although conditions are marginal. For the remainder of the forecast expect a rare northwest flow today across most of the waters with speeds of 10-15 knots with a few higher gusts. Being almost August this flow will not last long and a southerly component to the winds quickly returns to the region tonight through the weekend. Regarding seas outside of the 3-5 ft range perhaps an isolated six feet reading for the next few hours the range dips to 2-4 feet with more like 2-3 feet as the forecast period progresses.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.