textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecasts updates were sent to end shower/thunderstorm chances earlier. Overnight forecast lows have been increased by 1-2 degrees in spots as winds will delay the development of a nocturnal inversion, especially along the coast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain and severe weather risk coming to an end early this afternoon.

2) Hazardous marine conditions subside tonight.

3) Dry and abnormally warm weather expected through this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1.... Rain and severe weather risk coming to an end early this afternoon.

A band of heavy showers and thunderstorms is exiting the area at this time. Behind the line, clearing skies are expected before scattered to broken mid-level clouds filter in as the vort max aloft associated with the remnants of Isaias passes overhead. Breezy southwest winds will also arrive especially as skies clear and heating helps to mix into strong winds aloft. Wind gusts will subside this evening with the loss of heating, but remain steady out of the west-southwest overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Hazardous marine conditions subside tonight.

See marine discussion for more details.

KEY MESSAGE 3... Dry and abnormally warm weather expected through this week.

Behind Isaias, an abnormally strong upper high will build out of the Gulf, move across the Southeast US, and shift offshore late this week. This will result in mainly sunny skies with above-normal temperatures through the week and dew points generally holding in the 60s. Highs in the low-mid 80s on Monday and Tuesday are expected to rise into the mid-upper 80s for Wednesday through Friday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions should prevail over the coming 24 hours. There is a low potential for temporary MVFR ceilings this evening at KFLO and KLBT, then again Monday morning after daybreak at KLBT and KILM, but the probability of impacts is too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Southwest winds should veer northwesterly Monday morning with some gusts in the 15-20 knot range possible after the sun comes out.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail through Friday.

MARINE

Breezy southwest winds will maintain dangerous conditions for small craft into tonight before gradually subsiding while veering to westerly late in the night. Seas also fall below advisory levels by late tonight. Winds will continue veering to northwest while subsiding on Monday, then become 10 kts or less early on Tuesday. Seas continue falling on Monday to 1-3 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2- 4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. Benign marine conditions will then continue through the week with winds around 10 kts or less and seas of 1-2 ft in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the outer waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256.