textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisory expired for the beaches at 1000 AM. Gale Warning expired at 800 AM this morning. Updated Aviation section for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions into mid week.

2) High pressure continues dry weather and coastal breezes this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions into mid week.

Pinched gradient remains in place today with high pressure building down the coast. The high will start to weaken later today, easing winds a bit tonight into Tue. The reprieve from stronger winds will be short lived. Reinforcing high pressure arrives early Wed and continues into Thu continuing adverse marine/surf conditions. Gradient weakens Thu with wind speeds dropping and conditions gradually improving.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is likely during each high tide cycle through the middle of the week, with the highest tides in the morning.

High Surf Advisory for New Hanover County has been cancelled. Winds and seas are decreasing a bit faster than expected. The Masonboro Inlet Buoy(41110) shows subsiding seas, with waves around 5.5 ft this morning. Both the swell and the wind wave have dropped a good bit since yesterday and the wave steepness has decreased. Comparing yesterday afternoon's beach reports with 41110 observations from Sunday does imply surf heights are likely running below the 6 ft threshold for most if not all of the beaches. However, despite the ending of the advisory, surf conditions will remain rough. Moderate to strong longshore currents and surf up to 5 ft will still be present at the beaches north of Cape Fear today.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure continues dry weather and coastal breezes this week.

High pressure centered to the north will be the dominate feature this week keeping the region dry and breezy, especially along the coast. Near to below normal temperatures early this week trend above normal mid to late week, especially daytime highs.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR and north winds continue. North winds 7-10 mph along the coast with 4-7 mph inland will increase during the morning hours. A few hours after sunrise mixing of stronger winds aloft will lead to gusts 17-20 kt mid morning through much of the afternoon.

Extended outlook: VFR with gusty NE winds expected at times, especially near the coast. There is a low risk for CIG restrictions, mainly during late night/early morning periods.

MARINE

Pinched gradient remains in place today with high pressure building down the coast. Allowed the Gale Warning for nearshore waters to expire which was replaced with a Small Craft Advisory, the Gale Warning for the offshore waters expires at 12Z. Lack of observations across 20-60 NM and near gale conditions at the few buoys just beyond 20 NM make a case for keeping the gal warning until 12Z.

High pressure weakens today with winds gradually decreasing. Nearshore Small Craft Advisory is in effect through midnight, mainly for seas lingering over 6 ft in a few areas. Once the advisory comes down, there will be about a 24-30 hour window with no advisories. However reinforcing high pressure arrives early Wed and continues into Thu, accompanied by a northerly surge. Anticipate another round of SCA for the nearshore waters beginning on Wed and continuing Thu. Winds will be borderline as far as criteria go, but expect seas will return above 6 ft, especially in the 10-20 NM waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ280-284.