textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for the coastal waters from Little River Inlet, SC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm, but continues until 8 AM EDT this morning from Little River Inlet, SC up to Surf City, NC out 20 nm.

Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track as we pass 2 AM EDT. Aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry forecast dominates the work week, with temperatures soaring above seasonal norms.

- 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far settles in this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates the work week, with temperatures soaring above seasonal norms.

Upper ridge in the Gulf will slowly push northward towards Texas and Louisiana, before moving eastward into the Deep South this week. Subsidence keeps the forecast dry. Even more noticeable is a mid-October heatwave that sends high temperatures in the mid- to-upper 80s. Wednesday through Friday appear to be the warmest, where several spots could be flirting with 90 degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the mid 60s much of this week, getting near 70 at times during the coast.

It's October, mind you.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far settles in this weekend.

Summer-like ridge finally gets pushed into the Atlantic by a potent upper trough that dives southward from the upper Midwest. This pushes a dry cold front through the region, and the Carolinas are finally greeted with glorious fall air by the weekend. Highs only reach the mid 60s, while lows Saturday night dip into the low-to-mid 40s. Break out the pumpkin spice!

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

All VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Very slim chance of MVFR ceilings building inland heading towards sunrise this morning, but confidence is way too low to include in the TAFs at this time. SW winds at 6-8 kts tonight will gradually veer to the W towards daybreak, and then to the NW by midday. Gusts up to 15-18 kts likely along the coastal terminals this afternoon. Winds calm after sunset tonight.

MARINE

Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory has been cancelled for the coastal waters from Little River Inlet, SC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm, but continues until 8 AM EDT this morning from Little River Inlet, SC up to Surf City, NC out 20 nm. After advisory conditions subside, W winds gradually veer to the N by this evening, coming down to a gentle breeze. Seas improve to 1-3 ft. Gentle breeze sticks around through Friday morning, coming from the NE Tuesday, and then back to the SW by Wednesday. Seas improve even more to 1-2 ft. By midday Friday, gradient winds increase to a fresh breeze ahead of the next frontal system. Seas go up to 2-4 ft. Dry forecast dominates.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT this morning for AMZ250- 252.