textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence is increasing in a significant rain event this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

2) Unsettled weather may return this weekend with confidence increasing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

Modified Canadian High pressure centered north of the area under broad mid-level troughing will keep the region dry through at least Fri. Temperatures slightly below normal today return near normal Wed through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather may return this weekend with confidence increasing.

Anticipated tropical activity well to the south and west will interact with a large and quite moist atmospheric river moving over the area to provide another good rain event this weekend. Although still a few days out confidence is increasing with development of a tropical system moving into the lower Mississippi Valley with deep isentropic lift setting up over our area late Saturday through Sunday. Total rainfall amounts could be in a range of 2-4 inches with locally higher amounts. Temperatures will be somewhat above average citing the moisture and there doesn't appear to be much if any cold air advection early next week when conditions dry out.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR through the period.

Extended Outlook...VFR through at least Friday evening, outside of any patchy morning fog. Flight restrictions may return Saturday, but confidence is low.

MARINE

Small craft advisory conditions will persist across the waters through tonight ceasing at 3 AM. The flow will generally remain from the NE through the period although becoming very light by Thursday. By very late in the period an east to southeast flow develops ahead of the next system with small craft to gale conditions possible. Significant seas will follow the winds with 4-6 feet this evening falling to 2-3 feet by Thursday with another increase late in the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.