textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Decent chance of rain late Thursday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Decent chance of rain late Thursday into Friday.

Cold front will be strung out across NC/VA border Thurs morning. A shortwave will track eastward along broad trough across the eastern CONUS with sfc low developing along this frontal boundary to our north. This will keep best lift and support to our north initially Thurs morning, but as low tracks off to the east, the front will drop slowly south over the local forecast area. As another shortwave tracks eastward and digs down slightly, should see an enhanced area of lift running across GA and SC and into coastal NC overnight Thurs into Fri. This could bring some decent QPF, up to around an inch in places. There will be some elevated instability heading into Thurs night and may see some enhanced convection at that time with possibility of heavier showers or iso thunder.

The front should get pushed south by late Fri, but may remain close enough to keep some pcp over the area through Fri aftn. High pressure will build down behind the front Fri night into early Sat with slow clearing through Sat from NW to SE.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR. Strong SW winds will gust 25-30 kts through the day. Gustiness should decrease after sunset but winds will still be ~10 kts. Increasing rain chances could start to bring some VSBY/CIG restrictions late tonight and towards the end of the period, for now highest confidence at NC terminals so have included PROB30s.

Extended Forecast...Fight restrictions return into Thursday due to increasing rain chances. VFR returns late this weekend, possible as early as Sunday morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Strong SW flow as we're squished between high pressure to the south and a low in the NE. Small Craft Advisory is in place for wind gusts near 30 kts and seas 5-7 ft. Late tonight conditions may drop just below SCA conditions, but they will build in after the end of the period so the Advisory may be extended overnight.

Thursday through Sunday...Cold front will drop slowly south Thurs night into Fri reaching off the coast by late Fri. Enhanced SW flow ahead of the front on Thurs will push seas up into SCA thresholds after a lull from about midnight Wed night to noon on Thurs when seas should return into SCA thresholds with gusty SW winds up to 25 kts.

The cold front will drop through on Fri with diminishing southerly winds shifting to the NE behind the front Fri aftn through Fri evening. Seas up to 4 to 6 ft late Thurs into Thurs night will drop to 3 to 4 ft by Fri aftn and down to 2 to 4 ft Fri night through the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.