textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation discussion with the 12Z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat will give way to an active convective pattern through Tuesday. Another front will increase activity again for Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will give way to an active convective pattern through Tuesday. Another front will increase activity again for Friday.

The main drivers for convection today will be the Piedmont trough and a shortwave (moving around a larger mid-level trough with a sfc cold front) moving through later in the day. Better forcing will be to the north but instability won't be a problem and shear will increase with the shortwave passage making some storm organization possible, leading to an isolated damaging wind gust threat across the area. Hot, humid conditions will continue today so a Heat Advisory has been raised again for the whole area. Depending on the coverage of convection this could be dropped earlier in the evening. Activity will diminish into tonight with fog coverage limited by an overnight breeze as the front from the west approaches. This will move through into Monday morning where it looks like it diffuses across the area, perhaps moving through too early to enhance coverage as previously thought. This will however make more of a dent on the highs for Tuesday/Wednesday, as temperatures will return to near normal. We'll then warm up again through the latter half of the week as ridging builds back in and another front approaches, best coverage expected Friday afternoon ahead of the frontal passage. This second bout of heat isn't expected to be as impactful.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

MVFR/IFR Patchy fog and low stratus at LBT and FLO should improve quickly by 13Z. Today will again have the chance for flight restrictions from convection from mid-afternoon starting at the coast with the sea breeze and then progressing inland. The activity will have some upper level dynamics which will allow the convection to continue after dark thru 02Z-04Z. Winds generally SW 5 to 10 kt initially increasing to 10-15 g20 kt inland terminals...and SSW around 15 kt with gusts to 25 kt during the aftn and evening. Have included with the prob30 group convection...vrb20G35kt.

Extended Forecast...A second front will bring wet and unsettled conditions later Mon through midweek with periodic convection induced MVFR/IFR possible each afternoon and evening. Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored where heavy rain fell the day before.

MARINE

Sunday through Thursday... The PG increases today due to a disturbance ahead of a cold front with SCA conditions for our NC waters due to ~25-30 kt gusts. The front could drop over the waters late Monday night, winds turning from their typical SW to E/NE briefly. Otherwise, SW winds ~10-15kts with seas 3-4 ft within 20nmi. Conditions look to worsen towards the end of the period as another front approaches the area.

CLIMATE

Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which a few sites may reach record highs. The hottest day of the weekend will be today. The high temp records for each climate site this weekend are provided below.

Sun Location Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108- 110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252.