textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAF cycle. Key message adjusted slightly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

Ridging will build just north of the area with a return to above normal temperatures through the end of the week. Model guidance continues to show temperatures and dewpoints Friday that will result in apparent temperatures above 105 degrees. Confidence in that is low attm as there is potential for dry air to mix down with heating Friday such that apparent temperatures won't reach 105 degrees. By the weekend, moisture should have recovered enough to support typical afternoon showers/storms with isolated to scattered coverage, but these aren't anticipated to help to abate the heat threat into next week. There are signals that low pressure could form somewhere in the SE U.S. which could impact the rainfall forecast headed into next week but uncertainty is high at this time.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the afternoon, tonight and into Friday. Other than some diurnal cumulus and haze the column is mostly dry per morning RAOBs. The seabreeze will allow the winds to back this afternoon, then with the loss of heating the flow will weaken and veer back to a SW-Wly direction.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the upcoming weekend with predominantly VFR conditions through the period. Brief restrictions from afternoon showers/storms may return by early next week.

MARINE

Thursday through Monday... W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory gusts may be possible for the weekend as the PG increases, and the wind wave will become more dominant. Seas largely 2-3 ft increasing to 4-5 ft this weekend. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure development in the se U.S. late this weekend into next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Friday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.