textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Changeable conditions will remain in place through Monday. After a front moves across by early Tuesday a more consistent pattern of colder temperatures with limited moisture will be in place.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

A low amplitude ridge aloft will move eastward across the Carolinas today. Behind it, an energetic shortwave will move across the north- central Plains today and then the western Great Lakes tonight.

Down here at the surface, yesterday afternoon's backdoor cold front is stalled near the Savannah River where it should remain through early this afternoon. Surface high pressure centered over Virginia should move off the coast today. Veering low level flow behind the departing high will likely lead to enough moist upglide to produce persistent low clouds across most of our forecast area inland from the Cape Fear coast. With the front remaining to our south through at least late afternoon, it appears the NBM's forecast high temps today (62-67 degrees) are too warm and I've adjusted them down by several degrees with respect for the cooler GFS/NAM/EC MOS numbers. Even with this adjustment, there's still a possibility my forecast is too warm, especially from Florence and Marion northward across Lumberton where clouds should be the most persistent.

By this evening the high should be far enough off the Mid Atlantic coast for the surface flow to turn southerly, pushing the front through the area. There's a chance that just after sunset winds will be light enough for several hours of fog to develop inland, but this should be scoured out by increasing southerly winds overnight. Low temperatures should be registered during the evening, low-mid 50s, followed by rising temperatures overnight as warm advection strengthens in advance of Monday's cold front.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

A somewhat strong westerly flow will be in place Monday ahead of a strong cold front moving across. This flow and adequate sunshine should allow temperatures to surge well into the 70s once again based on but not limited to a very warm start. Pops remain limited with the feature and are slightly higher across northern zones. Tuesday will see a different world temperature wise with highs only approaching 50 degrees. While early Tuesday will be on the cold side better radiational conditions will be in place Wednesday morning with middle 20s expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The overall pattern of cold temperatures and dry conditions remain in place via basically all deterministic and ensemble guidance. A quick moving/low confidence system brings the next chance for rain into the weekend but once again no significant systems. Highs are stuck in the 50s for the most part until late with lows following a similar trend from in and around 30 to the 40s by next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Moisture overrunning a shallow cool airmass in place across the eastern Carolinas will produce areas of MVFR stratus today. Satellite shows low stratus is rapidly expanding early this morning. The potential for MVFR ceilings is high at KFLO, KLBT, KMYR, and KCRE; and moderate at KILM. With time, a front stalled near the Savannah River should move north, eroding the low clouds. However this process may not occur until 00z Monday at KFLO and KLBT. Additionally, there is a low to moderate potential for a period of fog this evening affecting KFLO and KLBT as the front approaches those airports.

Extended Outlook...There is a moderate potential for MVFR ceilings Monday ahead of a cold front. Breezy southwest to west winds could gust to 30 knots as the front pushes across the area. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected.

MARINE

Through Sunday... The surge of east-northeast winds behind Saturday afternoon's backdoor cold front continues. Wind speeds are expected to show a downtrend before sunrise and should diminish to 10 kt or less even along the Grand Strand coastal waters by noon as high pressure moves off the Mid Atlantic coast and out to sea. Yesterday's cold front will begin to lift back to the north by sunset with our winds becoming southerly during the evening, then increasing from the southwest overnight as a strong cold front advances eastward toward the southern Appalachians.

A 10 second easterly swell plus local wind waves should produce combined seas of 3-4 feet this morning subsiding to 2-3 feet this afternoon, then building to 3-4 feet again late tonight due to increasing winds.

Sunday night through Thursday... The long anticipated small craft advisory has been issued with this morning's forecast package. While the timing may eventually be adjusted a bit (more likely for ending time) it covers all waters from Monday until Tuesday morning. During this time southwest winds of 20-25 knots will be observed followed by northwest winds of 15-25 knots for several hours. The pattern doesn't appear to change much beyond this with northwest winds persisting although in a weaker state. Significant seas will go from 5-7 feet early to 2-4 feet by mid to late week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.