textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 18Z TAFs and for key messages being updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated rain chances are on tap this afternoon through Tuesday with temperatures cooling to near to slightly below normal levels by Tuesday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

2) Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated rain chances are on tap this afternoon through Tuesday with temperatures cooling to near to slightly below normal levels by Tuesday. Some storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

A cold front dropping through the area this afternoon will stall over the southeast U.S. through Tuesday while energy in the mid levels passes through at times. This will result in enhanced rain chances into Tuesday. Some of the storms could be strong to severe this afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

A warming trend returns Wednesday and forecasted temps are back above normal by Thursday as a ridge builds over the Southeast. We could see enough heat and humidity to send apparent temperatures to or over 105 degrees later in the week.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are prevailing at area terminals this afternoon and are expected to do so into tonight except when affected by convection which could bring brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Some guidance continues on and off showers and storms into the overnight but confidence in restrictions at terminals is too low for inclusion in the forecast attm but will likely see slowly lowering cigs overnight such that northern and western terminals are in the 1-2 KFT range by morning before lifting with heating.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions Monday through Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

South to southwest winds around 10 kts this afternoon will become more varied tonight and Monday as a front drops into the area before stalling. Winds remain generally less than 10 kts into Tuesday and Wednesday, and seas around 2-4 ft, highest outside 20 NM. WSW winds increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts for 20-60nm coastal waters, Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.