textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure will move through today bringing significant rainfall to the area. Dry high pressure will return later today through Thursday with a disturbance bringing another chance of rain starting as early as late Thursday and continuing into the weekend. Drying is expected into early next week.

UPDATE

Made minor initialization tweaks to the public forecast to account for a bit slower progression of coastal warm front which still remains offshore. Also updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: High today; None tonight *Temps: Near to above normal today; below normal tonight *Confidence: Moderate to High

Details: High pressure will continue to give way to two low pressure systems to our south, one off the GA/SC coast and another along the FL Panhandle. Confidence is increasing that both lows will mainly stay SE of SE NC and NE SC but plenty of moisture, low-level isentropic ascent and mid to upper-level forcing for ascent will lead to high rain chances into early afternoon before winding down later in the day from the west as drier air moves in behind the departing low pressure systems. Fortunately, the coastal warm front north of the low directly to our south should remain offshore given the strength of the inland high pressure which is being reinforced by the rainfall. Thus, the very small risk for a severe storm along this boundary near the coast looks even lower than the past few days. Rain amounts should mainly be around an inch with some places seeing up to around 1.5", mainly inland and also near the NC coast north of Cape Fear. Otherwise, should see improving conditions later in the day with temperatures falling in the afternoon earlier than normal, especially near the coast where they could briefly rise into the lower to possibly mid 60s, especially around Cape Fear. Below normal temperatures are expected tonight with lows near 30 inland and 40 near the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Mostly dry with cooler temperatures. Wednesday will see clearer skies as high pressure builds into the region. Winds will be light Wednesday night but passing high clouds may prevent our traditionally colder spots from getting too cold. Regardless we'll once again be below freezing away from the immediate coast. Clouds will continue to build and thicken through the day Thursday as Gulf moisture approaches from the SW. PWATs will start to recover to ~1" Thursday night where we could see some light showers filtering in around and after midnight. For now guidance seems keyed in on lows being above freezing when this moisture starts to kick in, so any wintry precip should stay to our north where colder temps are.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

No major changes to the extended at this time. A backdoor cold front looks to push through into Friday morning bringing slightly colder conditions as it looks like a brief wedge of high pressure forms before dissolving into the weekend. A stalled front along the southeast coast could have some pulses of low pressure along it as shortwaves move through aloft, rain chances lingering through the majority of the weekend. Our best chances of rain for now are Friday. This frontal system should move away through Sunday with drier conditions returning into early next week.

AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

12Z TAFs: High confidence in restrictions today as low pressure moves through the area with periods of heavy rain and maybe a few rumbles of thunder near the coast this AM, although confidence is lower regarding timing/severity of restrictions. Expect prevailing IFR cigs much of the day, possibly even to LIFR at times. Should start to see a return to VFR late in the day or this eve as drier air works in behind departing low pressure, initially inland at KFLO/KLBT, although confidence is pretty low given much model disagreement. There is moderate confidence in VFR conditions returning by 12Z Wed. Also, a very strong low-level jet will move through the area later this morning into early afternoon leading to LLWS, especially at the coastal terminals (KILM/KCRE/KMYR).

Extended Outlook...VFR to prevail Wednesday through Thursday night. Another storm system will likely bring restrictions starting Friday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Moderate to high confidence this period. Low pressure will move NE through the area today followed by high pressure thru tonight. Elevated winds/seas into the Small Craft Advisory range are expected into the first part of tonight. Some gales are also possible, mainly near the Gulf Stream, but not enough to warrant any Gale Warnings. There may also be a few stronger storms with gale force or stronger winds and waterspouts, mainly far eastern portions of the area toward the warmer and more humid (i.e, unstable) air over the Gulf Stream.

Wednesday through Sunday...High pressure building in will lead to northerly flow decreasing from ~15-20 kts to AOB 10 kts through the day Wednesday. Generally offshore flow ~10 kts will then stick around until Thursday night/Friday morning when a cold front pushes through and NE winds increase to ~15 kts. Offshore winds will then linger through the rest of the period ~10-15 kts. 4 footers will decline with the improving conditions through Wednesday with 2-3 ft through the rest of the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.