textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated WWA Section.

The Heat Advisory has expired at 800pm.

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

For Sat 7/18...Moderate rip current risk in effect for Brunswick and Northern Horry County beaches. Low rip current risk elsewhere. Strong South to North longshore current expect along E-SE facing beaches. Weak to Moderate West to East longshore current expected along south facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Rain chances increase late this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue this weekend. Rain chances increase late this weekend into early next week.

Latest round of guidance prompted no substantial changes to the forecast. Above normal temperatures have arrived with high pressure at the surface and ridging just to our north. A Heat Advisory remains in effect through early this evening and hot and humid conditions on Saturday may necessitate another advisory. Low level moisture transport will allow surface moisture to recover this weekend. Isolated to scattered showers are expected on Saturday as a weakness in the ridge deepens on Saturday. Rain chances increase on Sunday and Monday as an area of low pressure develops over the northeastern Gulf. This area of low pressure will drift northeastward into early next week and bring tropical moisture to the region. Confidence on location and exact impacts remains low.

AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR to dominate the 24 hr 00Z TAF Issuance Period. South 5 to 10 kt winds become SW around 5 kt overnight, helping to keep fog development limited, if any. Cirrus 20-25k ft to dominate overnight into Sat. Gradient between the Piedmont trof and high well offshore from the SE States Coast tightens with SSW-SW winds increasing to around 10 kt by late morning. Sea breeze to start midday and will make some progression inland during the aftn/evening. Winds at the coastal terminals will turn southerly 10-15 kt with g20+ kt possible by mid aftn thru the evening. Subsidence inversion Sat aftn/evening a bit weaker than previous days and as a result will include Prob30s at all terminals to account for just -TSRA given plenty of dry air in the mid and upper levels. Will also continue to observe milky colored skies from the haze (ie. smoke) aloft.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into Sun morning with predominantly VFR conditions expected. Piedmont trof, sea breeze and a cold front dropping south will result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms Sun afternoon thru Tue with periodic MVFR and possibly IFR conditions possible.

MARINE

W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory conditions may be possible for the weekend as the pressure gradient increases. Wind waves become more dominant with seas 2-3 feet early this weekend increasing to 4-5 feet Saturday night into Sunday. Some 6 footers are possible 20+ nmi offshore. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure development in the SE U.S. late this weekend into next week. Latest guidance re-establishes a strong gradient during the middle of next week as the surface low passes to our south and east. Confidence is low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.