textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) For aviators, potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions during the next 24 hrs across Southeast NC and Northeast SC.

2) Rain Friday night into Saturday could put a small dent in our drought.

DISCUSSION

.KEY MESSAGE 1: For aviators, potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions during the next 24 hrs across Southeast NC and Northeast SC.

See Aviation discussion.

.KEY MESSAGE 2: Rain Friday night into Saturday could put a small dent in our drought.

The late week setup will feature Wednesday's cold front stalled off the SE coast, then running west just off the Gulf Coast. Late Friday into Saturday a southern branch feature lifts out of Texas and phases into the northern branch above the MS Valley. This will lead to the development of low pressure on the Gulf Coast boundary that then runs close to the FL/GA border before turning up the Southeast Coast. This is one of the better situations for rain in the Carolinas for the time of year as the rain will be widespread and stratiform at a time when precip is climatologically becoming strictly spotty and convective. Around midday Saturday when the offshore low makes its closest approach the baroclinicity further up in the boundary layer tightens up, strengthening the ongoing isentropic upglide, this ascent then further benefiting from mid level PVA and weak height falls. Rainfall coverage and intensity will pick up leading to this point after which all players surface and aloft move offshore. Only a broad-brush QPF is possible at this time but the 1.0" area average seems a good one. As mentioned previously instability is lacking even aloft so thunder appears to remain out of the realm of possibility. Another benefit of stratiform rain vs convective is that the latter typically falls with a higher intensity and the initial amounts are lost to runoff. Slower rainfall rates foster better absorption and retention to the water table.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR with periodic MVFR fog early this morning before the mid level clouds push in and negate fog development. Mid-level s/w trof will help guide a sfc cold front to and across the Eastern Carolinas later today thru tonight. The main pcpn threat associated with the upper s/w trof will push across the area later this morning and exit the area to the east early this evening. Thunderstorm parameters are not all that conducive but enough to stick a prob30 group for several terminals for this aftn. Otherwise, pcpn and associated ceilings should remain within MVFR limits. There is a threat for IFR ceilings from the stronger convection with or without thunder. Should observe periodic MVFR/VFR clouds later this evening thru 06Z. Winds will start generally calm early this morning allowing the threat for fog outside the clouds. The sfc pg will tighten- some later today thru tonight due to the approaching sfc cold front and the center of high pressure retreating well offshore from the SE States. Look for SSW-SW winds increasing to 10 to occasionally 15 kt later this morning thru this evening.

Extended Forecast...Potential MVFR pcpn Thu into Thu night. Otherwise, mainly VFR Fri. A warm front will lift northward late Friday into Saturday with showers/ceilings flight restrictions. VFR returns on Sunday into early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.