textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Dense Fog Advisory in effect for Williamsburg and Georgetown Counties until 9 AM EST this morning. Widespread fog across the entire area, dense in some spots, but not quite consistent enough for an advisory outside what is mentioned above.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Warm and humid conditions for most of the upcoming seven days with foggy nights possible.

2)Widespread marine fog possible Wednesday through Sunday (or beyond).

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm and humid conditions for most of the upcoming seven days with foggy nights possible.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The pattern will be summer-like for most of the upcoming seven days. A low amplitude ridge east of FL Wednesday will build in amplitude and size. Meanwhile at the surface high presser will be centered near Bermuda. The former will suppress vertical motion and keep us rain=free until some weakening is noted starting Sunday. The latter will act as a heat and moisture pump into the Carolinas. The west-east elongation of the high will keep winds quite light so most nights will be prone to fog that could be locally dense especially towards daybreak, again through about Sunday. In addition to the overland radiative fog the next several days will also feature an advective marine layer-induced fog (see below). With light SSW flow over the chilly SSTs parts of coastal Brunswick County could have trouble shedding the fog through the day and inhibit the otherwise very warm temperatures across the rest of the area, generally in the low 80s. Even absent the sea fog lingering coastal Brunswick County will have tempered warmth in the onshore flow.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Widespread marine fog possible Wednesday through Sunday (or beyond).

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Warm and humid conditions for most of the upcoming seven days with foggy nights possible.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Widespread LIFR to open the 12Z TAF period, due to patchy dense fog. Visibilities will gradually improve over the next couple of hours, and the fog looks to finally mix out over land by 14-15Z. Calm winds will pick up towards 5-6 kts out of the SW, pulling more S at the coast where a seabreeze will kick up in the afternoon. Sea fog may spill over into KCRE and KMYR at times in the afternoon and evening, creating potentially MVFR to IFR concerns. Winds calm after sunset, where fog may become a concern once again after 06Z tonight. Don't know if it'll be quite as widespread or as dense, but conditions still look pretty favorable. Look for at least IFR restrictions at that point.

Extended Forecast....VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period but patchy fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions and sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals Wednesday night through the weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Variable winds around 5 kts will finally become southerly this afternoon at 5-7 kts, pushing a decent seabreeze inland. Sea fog already becoming an issue in some spots, particularly offshore of Little River Inlet down to the South Santee River. This is expected to become more widespread throughout the day and into tonight. May need to issue a Marine Weather Statement at some point to address some of these issues. Seas around 2-4 ft.

Thursday through Sunday... High pressure to be centered near Bermuda for the duration of the period. Winds and seas will be tempered by the fact that the high will be elongated west-east, the ridge axis extending into the Carolinas. SW wind chop and SE swell will not add up to much through most of the late week period but sea fog will likely to continue to be the main marine hazard. Flow around the Bermuda High will constantly advect high dewpoint air into the region, generally in the 60s. With SSTs barely into the 50s the stage should be set for a long duration of visibility restrictions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ039-055- 056. MARINE...None.