textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No major changes coming down the track as we hit 3 PM EDT. Updated aviation discussion found below for the 18Z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon for the next week.
- 2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week, which could result in afternoon heat indices around 105F.
KEY MESSAGE 2
Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week, which could result in afternoon heat indices around 105F.
Ridging continues to build well into next week. Meanwhile, a persistent moisture plume keeps the summer humidity around. As a result, heat indices are on the rise. Triple digit heat indices look to return by Sunday, increasing even more into next week. Heat indices look to hit 105F or greater at times, which would prompt a Heat Advisory. This will need to be watched in the coming days.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period, in between scattered convection this afternoon. Periods of rain and TSRA that spun up from the seabreeze earlier today is gradually transitioning inland towards KFLO and KLBT, which have the best chance at dealing with temporary restrictions down to IFR through 21Z this afternoon. Convection starts to settle after sunset this evening.
May have another look at MVFR to potentially even IFR fog over KFLO and KLBT before sunrise Saturday morning. Guidance doesn't seem too hot on this idea, but we're in the same atmosphere as we were this morning. Fog should mix out by 13-15Z. A SSE breeze at 5-8 kts likely towards the end of the period.
Extended Forecast...Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or low stratus each day.
MARINE
Through Wednesday...Gentle breeze out of the south continues through the weekend, veering to the southwest by Sunday. Seas at 2-4 ft improve slightly to 2-3 ft. Gradient winds increase towards a moderate breeze Sunday night through Wednesday, even getting up towards a fresh breeze for a brief bit Tuesday night. Wind waves only respond modestly up to 2-4 ft again.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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