textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated with the 12Z TAF Issuance.

A Heat Advisory has been issued for all inland areas for today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The synoptic setup has changed very little if any from Monday thus expecting similar conditions. A very persistent but fading area of convection that moved across the western periphery of the CWA may delay convection initiation today but then again may provide more impetus in a possible emerging MCV or outflow boundaries. Widespread convection is eventually expected however and SPC has the CWA in a marginal risk.

Similar thermal profiles are expected as well if not slightly warmer with a possible slight delay in convection and once again a heat advisory has been issued. I wouldn't be surprised to see an isolated 110 degree reading or two but not enough longevity or consistency to strongly consider an excessive heat warning.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions are currently in place across the area. Used Prob 30 grouping to address convection from generally 16Z thru 24Z today with periodic MVFR and possibly IFR conditions. At this time only addressed the potential MVFR across each of the 5 terminals. SW flow 5 to 10 kt to generally dominate except the sea breeze by late this morning or early afternoon will back winds to the south 10-15 kt g20 kT at the coastal terminals. And should carry through well into the overnight as a 925mb low level SW jet sets up. Debris convective clouds to dominate tonight with low level stratus fractus clouds possible across the coastal terminals.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat.

MARINE

Its summer across the coastal waters which means southwest winds of 10-15 or at times 15-20 knots. Significant seas of 2-4 feet but cannot rule out a more narrow range of 3-4 feet. Not much convection was observed at or near the waters Monday to threaten mariners and today would appear similar.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.