textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Convection late this morning through this afternoon could bring the threat of isolated severe storms to the area.

2) Another cold front will bring some more rainfall late Wednesday into early Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Convection late this morning through this afternoon could bring the threat of isolated severe storms to the area.

The afternoon seabreeze and an evening cold front will lead to showers and thunderstorms today with an isolated severe threat mainly east of I-95. The environment this afternoon will have 800- 1500 J/kg of CAPE, DCAPE 500-800 J/kg, and bulk shear increasing to 40-50 kts supporting some storm organization, particularly along boundaries like the seabreeze and front. The main threat will be damaging winds but hail and an isolated tornado can't be ruled out. Rainfall totals east of I-95 are ~0.25-0.5" and <0.25" further west. Isolated higher rainfall totals near 1" in storms are also possible due to PWATs ~1.5", but storms shouldn't be moving slow enough to where flash flooding will be an issue. The front should clear the area this evening with showers and storms moving offshore, a NE breeze limiting fog formation overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Another cold front will bring some more rainfall late Wednesday into early Thursday.

A cold front looks to approach Wednesday into Wednesday night but with limited moisture/forcing we don't expect a blockbuster rain event. However, up to ~0.5" will be possible, especially in NC which will be closer to the upper forcing. There is some uncertainty regarding dewpoints and how much instability will develop but there could be a few mainly elevated thunderstorms. As usual, there is plenty of deep layer shear to support organized convection and severe weather but limited instability will keep this risk very low at best.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Restrictions this morning will linger through 13Z but have not been accounted for in the TAFs due to the complications later in the day with precip and frontal passage timing. Showers will likely dip VSBYs <6 SM with storms bringing MVFR/IFR. Isolated severe storms are possible (mainly damaging wind gusts but hail/tor also possible) starting late this morning through the afternoon with the seabreeze. Storm coverage should be better near the coast. 20-21Z W/NW winds will flip around to the NE with the frontal passage, winds increasing to 12-15 kts, gusts near 20 kts. A NE breeze could linger through the majority of the night, inhibiting fog formation though IFR CIGs may be an issue.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR ceilings could linger into pre- dawn Tuesday. VFR should then prevail through early Wednesday. Potential for flight restrictions increases with another cold front late Wednesday. VFR should return Thursday and Friday.

MARINE

Through Tonight... SW winds ~10 kts through the majority of the day ahead of a cold front, with a sharp turn to the NE as the front moves through in the late afternoon/evening. Winds will increase to 20-25 kts from the SE NC waters to the NE SC waters, with a Small Craft Advisory in place from this evening through the rest of the period. Similarly, seas 2-3 ft will increase to 4-6 ft tonight, 7-9 ft for the offshore waters.

Tuesday through Friday night...Elevated NE winds/seas will subside Tue as high pressure builds closer. Winds will subside first but it will take a bit longer for seas to diminish with SCA conditions ending latest for the SC waters toward evening.

Offshore high pressure will then prevail until a weak cold front approaches later Wed and Wed night. The front should finally move through Thu night but conditions still are likely to stay below SCA levels.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256.