textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00z TAFs. Marine Discussion updated for lowering Gale Warning northern waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Arctic high pressure will bring unseasonably cold weather this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Arctic high pressure will bring unseasonably cold weather this weekend.

Slightly colder and windier conditions are expected over SE NC tonight, warranting a Cold Weather Advisory for wind chills near 10 degrees. Winds look to go calmer for NE SC as the jet aloft exits our southern areas more quickly, resulting in spots with wind chills in the teens but elsewhere near 20. Arctic high pressure will start to build in Sunday morning but especially in the afternoon, with winds becoming light and variable. Some moisture from the Midwest behind the high could make its way down Sunday afternoon with a slight increase in clouds through the latter half of the day and into Sunday night. These clouds should aid in inhibiting strong radiational cooling Sunday night, with lows near if a bit warmer than what they were Saturday night. With the lack of wind, no Cold Weather Advisory is expected. Should the clouds be less robust or clear out before sunrise, our traditionally cooler spots could drop by 5-10 degrees from the current forecast.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR. N to NW winds 10 to 15 KT diminishing to 10 KT or less by sunrise. Gusty character has already diminished with sunset. Lighter winds should be in place by Sunday morning as high pressure moves overhead.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions from shallow fog could develop late Mon night and again Tue night. Intermittent sea fog could also impact the coastal terminals Tuesday night through Thursday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Winds have diminished a little faster than expected so gale warning has been lowered to small craft northern waters. Expect N to NW winds invof 20 to occasionally 25 KT this evening with gusts up to 30 possible becoming more northerly at 15 to 20 KT after midnight with gusts diminishing at 25 KT. Much lighter winds should be in place by Sunday afternoon as the high starts to move overhead. Seas 2-5 ft will become 2-3 ft Sunday.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Sub-SCA conditions this period with sfc high pressure to start followed by a cold fropa Wednesday night with gusts up to ~20 kt most likely. There is a slight chance for sea fog starting Tuesday night and until the fropa as warmer and moister air from the southwest moves in over the chilly nearshore waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Sunday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.