textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
The forecast has trended drier for the weekend but there remains a chance for rain basically every day for the next few days.
KEY MESSAGES
1)Lower rain chances for the weekend.
2) A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Lower rain chances for the weeendd.
KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...An area of showers and thunderstrorms should move across the area this evening associated with a front/trough. The northeast flow in the wake of the front lingers well into Sunday thus now limiting rain chances with lower instability. The best chances reside along the coast.
KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.
KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...Mostly dry conditions will be in place Monday with a weak pressure pattern both aloft and at the surface. A stronger front pushes south Tuesday with increased pops followed by dry high pressure for the remainder of the week. Temperatures...slightly above normal early will trend downward in time.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
VFR conditions expected to continue for the most part. However guidance is consistent on an area of showers and thunderstorms affecting most areas this evening perhaps favoring the coast slightly. Used PROB 30 groups to address. Perhaps some fog or stratus may develop in the wake of this activity but confidence is low on this for now.
Extended Outlook...There is a moderate potential for MVFR/IFR Saturday due to scattered thunderstorms, decreasing slightly on Sunday. Morning ground fog possible each morning through Monday.
MARINE
The light winds with a southerly component will continue through this evening. In the wake of a cluster of storms and frontal passage winds will be from the NE and linger into Sunday. This is a change from the previous thinking where the front would make a quick retreat north. For Monday and Tuesday winds will be almost light and variable with if anything a southeast flow seemingly driven by the sea breeze. Finally still looking at a stronger NE flow by the middle part of next week with a stronger frontal passage. Significant seas stay muted outside of convection in a 2-3 foot range increasing late with the wind speed increase.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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