textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will build through Wednesday leading to a warming trend. A passing dry cold front Wednesday night will usher in the coolest air since Spring. The late week period will feature another warmup until the next cold front arrives Sunday night with cooler and drier weather returning to start the work week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure continues to build southward out of the Great Lakes. Other than some low clouds near the coast this morning, skies should be clear for most of the day as dry air deepens. A dry cold front will push through the region tonight. Northerly winds around 10-15 mph today will increase briefly with the front tonight. Highs in the mid to upper 70s today as thicknesses increase ahead of the front and just east of a ridge over the south central US. Lows tonight in the mid 50s behind the front. Winds overnight around 5-10 mph.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none *Temps: below normal

Confidence: *High regarding dry weather; Moderate to High regarding temps

Details: No major changes from the previous forecast. Dry conditions are expected with high pressure prevailing, sliding southeast and overhead Fri night. We currently have Thu night as the coldest night with lows generally in the mid 40s inland, with just a tad warmer temps Fri night. However, temps could get lower both nights depending on wind speeds/cloud cover, especially in the normally colder inland spots. Would not be surprised to see a few temps get into the upper 30s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Key Messages/Highlights: *Rain Chances: none, except low late Sun/Sun night *Temps: near to below normal, warmest on Sun

Confidence: *Mostly High, except Low to Moderate regarding rain amounts Sun/Sun night

Details: No significant changes to the previous forecast. Will start changing air masses Saturday as high pressure shifts offshore bringing warmer/moister conditions to the region, especially on Sun ahead of a cold front. Some showers are possible later Sun west of I-95 and then across the entire area Sun night before cooler/drier weather returns Mon. Not expecting significant rainfall or thunder chances at this time, although confidence is lower here due to some uncertainty regarding the strength of this system.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Satellite shows a broad area of MVFR CIGs just offshore and over eastern NC/OBX. This could sneak into the coastal terminals overnight, but given that wind directions remain northerly, confidence is high that VFR should dominate.

VFR expected over the next 24 hours, although LAMP probs do show a brief period of MVFR as the boundary layer deepens this morning. VFR should return by noon or early afternoon as dry air trickles into the boundary layer. Northerly winds continue today, slightly weaker than previous days.

Extended Outlook... VFR expected through the remainder of the week.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure maintains northerly winds today. Wind will gust up to 15-20 knots this afternoon. A dry cold front will move southward across the region tonight, providing a brief surge in wind gusts and seas. Conditions are expected to remain sub- advisory, but seas could approach 6 feet for a couple of hours (primarily in the NC nearshore waters). The surge will gradually decrease into Thursday. Thursday through Sunday...Moderate to high confidence through the period. High pressure from the north will prevail through Fri night before shifting offshore this weekend. Elevated winds/seas will continue near Small Craft Advisory levels at times into Thu due to cooler/drier air moving into the area, especially in the NC waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 2 PM to 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.