textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated except for the Key Messages. The Coastal Flood Advisory was extended through this evening's high tide for all tidal areas. A High Surf Advisory was issued for New Hanover County.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, coastal breezes, and near to below normal temperatures through mid next week.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather through mid next week leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast at times but no significant rainfall is expected. Breezy conditions with gusts up to around 35 mph at times are also expected, especially near the coast, due to low pressure well to the southeast from near The Bahamas northeast to Bermuda.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected during each high tide cycle for the next several days along the SE NC and NE SC coasts, including the lower Cape Fear River. The highest tides should occur during the morning high tide cycles.

High Surf: High seas up to near 10 ft within 20 nm will likely lead to 6+ ft surf heights into early next week, especially for E-facing beaches. We have raised a High Surf Advisory for New Hanover County where confidence is highest in 6 ft breakers occurring starting today. In addition, the large waves coupled with high water levels should result in some erosion, especially for E-facing beaches.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

06Z Sat thru 06Z Sun: High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails. Very low risk of MVFR/IFR CIGs this morning as low-level moisture increases. NE winds will prevail, gusting to near 20-25 kt during the daytime.

06Z Sun thru Wed: VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25 knots at times Sunday. There are low chances of low clouds affecting the coastal terminals at times given the low- level trajectory with most of the cloud cover remaining off the coast.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...High pressure to the north will prevail through the period with low pressure developing far offshore tightening the pressure gradient. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the 0-20 nm waters with some marginal gale force gusts. Expect a better risk for gale-force gusts beyond 20 nm and the Gale Warning continues there. NE winds counter to the Gulf Stream will result in very steep/hazardous maritime conditions offshore. Although the NE winds will persist and diminish some through mid week, marine conditions are always slower to improve in such scenarios and thus boating conditions will not be favorable for much of the upcoming week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. High Surf Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ280-284.