textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will ridge across the Carolinas from the north while a weak coastal trough develops and moves inland during Friday. The high will slide off the coast Friday night into Saturday allowing the trough to push inland which will result in a warming trend through the weekend. A cold front will pass the area Sunday into early Monday and increase rain chances. A second cold front will cross the area on Tuesday, bringing another chance for rain.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

CAD wedge remains firmly in place today with surface high pressure ridging down from the north. Another day of below normal high temps in the low to mid 50s. High clouds currently across the area will clear out by midday. Meanwhile, low clouds across southern SC will spread northward and cover parts of northeast SC this afternoon and evening - which may lower temps a few degrees depending on coverage. Tonight shallow low level isentropic lift from the south will increase clouds across SC counties and may produce a few light showers late tonight. CAD wedge becomes shallower tonight, but still present, with coastal trough developing offshore. Lows tonight around 40F, slightly warmer to the south and cooler to the north (depending on northward extent of cloud deck).

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

H5 ridge axis in place across the Eastern U.S. will help to deflect the more vigorous shortwave energy from the Plains toward the Great Lakes Region. However, with surface ridging into the Southeast U.S. with a coastal trough and enough moisture below H7 isentropic lift at 295-300k will likely result in some rain, especially for southern and western zones. QPF looks rather limited at this time. As the center of the high moves of the Mid-Atlantic coast Friday evening the coastal trough shifts inland allowing temperatures to rebound given onshore flow. The onshore flow Friday night will support above normal low temperatures.

During Saturday the old coastal trough shifts farther inland while deepening Sly flow transports additional moisture into the area. Low-level warm air advection coupled with additional isentropic lift supports an increase in rain chances Saturday into Saturday night. Sly flow at the surface will result in high temperatures Saturday that are well above normal, with similar results for lows Saturday night.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

H5 ridge axis shifts farther offshore as a trough axis moves west to east across the Carolinas during Sunday. Plenty of moisture from the surface to H7 with the cold front moving through support good chances for rainfall. GEFs probabilities suggest QPF with the front will only be a tenth to half an inch given how progressive the front moves through. There is not much in the way of cold air advection behind this front and return flow quickly develops ahead of another front that will move through late Tuesday into Wednesday. Overall, temperatures will be above climatology through most of the long term period.

AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR. Scattered-broken high clouds through late morning, returning tonight. Scattered clouds around 6-8 kft develop across northeast SC this afternoon into tonight.

Extended Outlook...Patchy MVFR stratus possible across northeast SC Friday. Scattered showers possible Saturday and rain likely on Sunday, possibly including isolated thunderstorms. MVFR possible.

MARINE

Through tonight...Northeasterly winds persist across the coastal waters through tonight as cold air damming wedge remains firmly in place inland, with wind speeds around 15-20 kts. Seas generally in the 3-4 ft range, with 5 footers in the outer coastal waters, primarily due to NE wind wave along with a weakening SE swell. Scattered light showers may develop over northeast SC coastal waters late tonight, but no thunder concerns.

Friday through Tuesday...Surface ridge will be in place across the Carolinas Friday along with a coastal trough maintaining NEly flow across the waters. Ely flow will be found east of the trough/farther offshore. As high pressure moves offshore Friday evening the coastal trough becomes ill-defined allowing for E-SEly flow across the waters. The Sly fetch will increase this weekend with high pressure migrating farther offshore and the next cold front approaching from the west. Probabilities for >20 knot winds increase during Sunday when another Small Craft Advisory may be needed. The front will push off the coast early next week but will likely not be followed by a strong push of offshore winds as the next low moves from the plains toward the Great Lakes in a progressive pattern. As a subsequent approaches the waters the flow will quickly return to a SWly direction. Seas will improve some during Friday, but will ramp up again in the Sly fetch on Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.