textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast. Another Coastal Flood Advisory was issued for all tidal areas for minor coastal flooding during high tide later this morning into early afternoon.

12z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding expected along the coast and lower Cape Fear River at least for a few more days, especially during daytime high tides.

- 2) Temperatures will gradually warm up through the work week with rain chances returning late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding expected along the coast and lower Cape Fear River at least for a few more days, especially during daytime high tides.

High astronomical tides along with continued positive tidal anomalies will lead to additional minor coastal flooding along the coast and lower Cape Fear River through at least Wed, especially during the daytime high tides.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures will gradually warm up through the work week with rain chances returning late week.

General troughing over the area will get replaced by high pressure late week leading to a warming and eventual moistening trend toward the end of the work week. High temperatures should climb above normal starting Tuesday and continue into Friday with 90s possible once again inland starting Wed. Overnight lows should stay near to below normal a few more nights due to the dry air mass and pretty favorable radiational cooling conditions, then climb above normal starting Wed night before falling a bit over the weekend.

Rain chances should hold off until Fri when low chances return with a bit better chances possible over the weekend as a stalling front approaches, although confidence remains low regarding rain chances/timing/amounts. At least there doesn't appear to be a significant risk for severe storms or excessive rainfall at this time.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR. Clear skies. Light west-northwest winds during the day, with weak southerly sea breeze at coastal terminals this afternoon.

Extended forecast...Low to moderate risk for late night/early morning fog each morning due to increasing low-level moisture.

MARINE

Through Friday...Low pressure well to the north just off the DE/NJ coasts will continue to weaken and move farther away the next few days leading to diminishing east-northeast backswell. High pressure moving into the local area will provide for fairly light winds as well leading to much improved marine conditions overall. Seas should be 2 ft or less within 20 nm and only up to 3 ft out to 60 nm with winds mainly 15 kt or less.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.