textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated with little change in forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

-1)The heatwave continues in the near term.

2)Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave continues in the near term.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Although the ridge that has been overhead will flatten in the coming days it will take a more significant shift in the synoptic pattern to temper afternoon heat below advisory thresholds through Saturday. The low amplitude aloft that results of the flattened ridge will help some lower dewpoints to mix down away from the coast for HI values that remain in advisory thresholds as they did today. Of lower confidence is areas close to the coast where dewpoints could remain higher and HI values get closer to but generally fall short of Warning criteria as they did today. For this reason and to avoid possibly confusing double headlines have held off on a Heat Watch for tomorrow especially after collab w neighbors where we feel HI values will fall short (except for CHS where higher dewpoints have pooled and HIs of 110+ have materialized).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Releif from the heat and good rain chances in the offering this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... The pattern change needed as mentioned above may take place on Sunday. The ridge that has been plaguing the east for quite some time will be shifting over the west-central part of the nation and be amplifying considerably. This will drive a cold front into the area. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture the setup should be quite stormy Sunday and Monday, some storms possibly on the strong side.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR for the most part. Storm coverage much lower today and favoring NC and less so the seabreeze. FLO probably stays dry.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from daily afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through Sat. More numerous thunderstorms possible Sunday and Monday.

MARINE

Little to no deviations from SW flow as typical of the time of year. Wind speeds do increase Thursday into Friday as Atlantic High retrogrades and the Piedmont trough strengthens. A window of SCA late Friday or Friday night. A cold front on Sunday will bring veering winds even as speeds tick down a bit, but wave faces could still steepen from the directional variability.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096- 099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ039- 054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.