textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

From the 3 AM EDT Update: All sections updated. Excessive heat warning/watch now in effect for eastern sections of the area today/tomorrow, respectively.

KEY MESSAGES

1)The heat and humidity continues for the next several days, likely peaking today and tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heat and humidity continues for the next several days, likely peaking today and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Though the mid level ridge remains of low amplitude across the Gulf and Southern U.S. 500 mb heights remain in excess of 590 dam. 850mb temps will be in the 20-23C range and at least for today and tomorrow a piedmont trough will focus 1000-500mb thicknesses of 582 dam across much of the Southeast. Pair this with a continuation of humid conditions and today/tomorrow could wind up being the hottest feeling days of the summer, with two main caveats. Those caveats are the potential mixing down of lower dewpoints yielding lower HI values and the uncertain convective coverage. For now we have a dry forecast both days with both mid level and sub-cloud dry air noted in soundings. Have raised Excessive Heat Warning for eastern zones and Heat Advisory for westernmost counties where aforementioned mixing appears most likely. Tuesday looks to play out similarly so an Excessive Heat Watch raised for the same counties as todays Warning (advisory will be needed inland Tuesday but didn't feel the need for so many headlines and prefer to keep advisories first two periods or so).

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Patchy stratus has developed across the area this morning, mainly as a result of heavy rain and saturated soils. Mix of VFR debris clouds and IFR stratus across the region, becoming VFR with mostly clear skies by mid to late morning. Restrictions become more intermittent and ending by mid morning. A stray storm is possible this afternoon, but have maintained VFR TAFs due to the low probabilities. Patchy fog possible late tonight.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday...Overall expect light winds through the period, though there could be some enhancement in the afternoon in sea breeze areas in south to southwest flow Monday afternoon. Overall, winds and seas should be relatively benign outside convection through Thursday. Some longer period swell arrives from the SE on Tuesday but without any real increase in dominant wave height.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for SCZ032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.