textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast, although lowered temps/dewpoints a bit next few days based on some more clouds today and also what happened yesterday regarding lower than expected temps/dewpoints. Also, added a slight chance of showers/storms near the coast this aftn/eve based on latest hi-res model guidance and forecast of a passing weak upper shortwave.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected through early next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding expected through the rest of the week, especially along the lower Cape Fear River.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected through early next week.

Mid-level high pressure will generally prevail across the region aiding in above normal temperatures through the period. High humidity will help push heat indices into Heat Advisory range (105- 109 degrees) for most each day and even into Heat Warning range (110+ degrees) for some (mainly across the coastal Counties where dewpoints should be greatest). However, it is worth noting that forecast confidence regarding heat indices remains lower than normal, especially this weekend, as there is some uncertainty regarding temps/dewpoints/rain/cloud coverage.

Remember, heat is the #1 weather-related cause of death so everyone is encouraged to take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecasts and safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding expected through the rest of the week, especially along the lower Cape Fear River.

Astronomical influences from the new moon will cause elevated tide levels thru late week. Minor coastal flooding is expected along the coast and along the lower Cape Fear River, especially during the evening high tides through today. Along the lower Cape Fear River, minor coastal flooding is also possible during the morning high tides.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR outside of a few pockets of MVFR vsby early this morning at non-TAF sites. Few to scattered diurnal cu around 7kft this afternoon. Light winds out of the west-southwest during TAF period, with pinned southerly sea breeze at MYR and CRE after 16z. Isolated storm may briefly impact coastal terminals this afternoon, but chances too low for TAF inclusion.

Extended...Mostly VFR outside a generally low risk for low clouds/fog each late night/early morning and mainly aftn/eve showers/storms.

MARINE

Thursday through Monday...Typical summertime conditions expected most of the period, although a weak front should stall over or near the area this weekend leading to shifting winds and higher rain chances. However, winds/seas should not reach headline criteria through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.