textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Warm weather will continue today before a cool down briefly on Friday due to a backdoor front. Temperatures will warm back up over the weekend before a strong cold front brings brief rain chances and much colder weather late Monday into Tuesday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Southwest winds strengthen today with surface high pressure offshore. Southerly warm air advection will push temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon. Onshore flow at the coast will keep highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but low level thicknesses should be comparable.

Pockets of mid level moisture associated with a weak shortwave will lead to periods of clouds, primarily this morning. A mix of sunshine and clouds stretching as late as early afternoon shouldn't impact temperatures too much, but I have maintained highs on the lower side of the ensemble median.

Winds turn westerly tonight ahead of a cold front on Friday. Lows will be a bit tricky tonight, centered around timing of the frontal boundary. The front will move through the region from NE to SW. The arrival of the front will pull temperatures into the 40s for the northeastern tier of the CWA with areas to the southwest staying in the lower 50s. The front will be positioned near the NC/SC border by sunrise, hence the difficulty with overnight lows. An inconsistent mix of clouds and peeks of clear skies this evening may also complicate lows.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Overall the mid level pattern will continue to be somewhat zonal through the end of the holiday week and into the weekend. This is helping to maintain weaker quicker systems across the region. A modest northeast flow will be in place from the passage of a mostly dry backdoor front but will quickly shift to the south and warm considerably. Under dry conditions highs will increase into the 60s Friday and well into the 70s on Saturday. In some cases this approaches record highs for this date. Morning lows will be well into the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Changeable conditions continue for the extended period as yet another backdoor essentially dry front moves across Sunday which will serve to reset near record breaking warmth closer to normal. However the warmth returns once again Monday ahead of a more meaningful system...this one with some pops that moves across Tuesday. The parent longwave trough with this system appears to have some staying power at least through the New Year's Holiday with several cycles well below normal on temperatures especially morning lows in the middle to upper 20s.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Isolated fog has developed along the Grand Strand early this morning, likely in response to a brief period of clear skies earlier this evening. High clouds should scour this out over the next few hours, but I have opted to hold onto restrictions at CRE for a few hours due to the inconsistency in cloud cover and the proximity to the ICW.

Mid level clouds this morning should be VFR as a shortwave passes. Clearer skies are expected this afternoon although wouldn't be surprised to see some remnants through sunset. Gusts up to 20 knots out of the southwest this afternoon with warm air advection. Another weak shortwave moves overhead this evening with more VFR CIGs. A cold front drops south of the area just after the period, likely bringing low CIGs for the first part of Friday.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions will be possible on Friday as a cold front moves through the area from the north. VFR should return this weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Onshore flow this morning will continue to veer through the afternoon as surface high pressure moves offshore. Veering southwesterly flow increases this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front tonight. Gusts this afternoon and this evening will generate wind waves around 2-3 feet. The cold front approaches the area late tonight with increasing northeast winds. Gusts to 20 knots are possible before the end of the period, primarily for the NC nearshore waters.

Friday through Monday... With the frequent systems noted in the short term public discussion the wind shifts and associated short lived fetches are probably too numerous to discuss individually. The highlights include a NE flow Friday and Sunday. A return flow develops Saturday and again early next week with the one MOnday being more significant. Sea fog could be a possibility early next week as well with a Small Craft Advisory coming into play. The cold air advection is also formidable and wouldn't be surprised with Gale conditions at least from a gust standpoint.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.