textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

2)Low rain chances ahead of a cold front on Thursday before a big cool down for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

Dry high pressure will dominate the weather with large diurnal swings in temperature from overnight lows mainly in the 40s to daytime highs in the 70s through midweek. A dry cold front is expected to settle through the area this afternoon, bringing in drier air for Monday night. Calm winds, clear skies, and dry air all support great radiational cooling, bringing a chance for isolated frost in the coldest spots early Tuesday morning. Low temperatures rebound thereafter as moisture gradually returns from the southwest.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Low rain chances ahead of a cold front on Thursday before a big cool down for the weekend.

As a significant mid-upper trough develops over the eastern US, a cold front is forecast to push through on Thursday. With a lead shortwave trough passing over or south of the area ahead of the front, limited moisture is expected to be left in its wake, keeping rain chances low with the front itself. Behind the front, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows and possibly frost/freeze conditions. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around this broader trough, there is also at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period. Transient MVFR mist at KCRE should abate within a couple hours as winds pick up out of the WSW. Light winds mainly out of the WNW are expected to develop after sunrise this morning beneath clear skies.

Extended outlook...VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday with a frontal passage, but confidence is low and will depend on timing of the front.

MARINE

Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into early Thursday. SW to W winds should increase starting Wed night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty W to NW winds behind the front. Could see Small Craft Advisory conditions by Friday.

Seas 2-3 ft nearshore and 3-4 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters today will gradually subside into the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters tonight. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while westerly to southwesterly wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late Thursday into the weekend in response to increasing winds associated with a cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.