textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Water vapor imagery continues to show the persistent moist plume in place across the forecast area this evening. However, the deeper moisture will gradually become supplanted northeast and east of the area later tonight through Monday. Convection will weaken across the inland areas over the next hour or so, and stratus/fog potential will increase overnight. As a result, decided to remove the first key message. Otherwise, only minor changes were made to the latest forecast issuance. Added a reference for August reaching the second wettest on record (15 inches) to the climate section. The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Increased heat and humidity expected this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Increased heat and humidity expected this week.

As upper-level high pressure builds eastward early this week, temperatures will rise above normal and shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease to below seasonal norms. With the core of the high pressure center shifting overhead by midweek, expect well-above normal highs in the middle to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria may be reached in some areas between Wednesday and Friday, although enough dry air in the lower atmosphere may be able to keep heat indices from reaching 105F or greater across much of the area. Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is needed, a period of mostly sunny, dry, and abnormally hot conditions (with heat indices of 100F or higher) is expected.

With regard to this heat extending beyond the work week, guidance tools are coming into better agreement regarding a cold front sliding down from the north next weekend, bringing increased shower and thunderstorm coverage, greater cloud cover, and considerably lower high temperatures. Although the timing of this front and its associated precip carries low confidence, confidence in the heat being cut off this weekend and replaced by unsettled weather is increasing.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions prevail this evening other than spotty MVFR CIGs, but confidence has increased regarding potential LIFR (especially at KFLO/KLBT) during the early morning hours. Any stratus/fog should dissipate 12-14Z Monday with VFR condition to prevail with daytime heating and as the mid/upper ridge begins to exert its influence across the area. Will likely see a few SHRA/TSRA along the sea breeze Monday afternoon, but limited coverage does not warrant inclusion in the current TAF set.

Extended Forecast...There is low to moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through the middle of this week. As drier air moves in aloft, the coverage of showers and storms is expected to be isolated if any Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Light east to southeast flow is in place as high pressure establishes itself north of the area. As the surface high pressure moves offshore into midweek, a return of south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts is expected. On Wednesday and Thursday afternoons, abnormally hot temperatures on land are expected to lead to a nearshore enhancement of the winds due to a stronger sea breeze, increasing speeds into the 10-15 kt range. Seas will run 1-2 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi zones, primarily driven by southeasterly 8-9 sec swells. Wind waves of 1 ft or less will continue in tandem with the daytime increase in winds. A longer period swell of 11 sec should reach the Southeast coast over Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing seas into the 2-3 ft range in the 0-20nmi zones and 3-4 ft in the 20-60nmi zones. The period is expected to decrease to around 9 sec over Wednesday night while wave heights remain steady.

CLIMATE

Wilmington, NC is currently just below its hottest summer on record. The average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently 0.1F below 2011 and 2010 as of the official daily climate report from August 29.

#1 2011 81.8 deg F #2 2010 81.8 deg F #3 2026 81.7 deg F (with two days to go) #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

Additionally, August is the second wettest on record for Wilmington. With today's rainfall 15.0 inches was recorded at ILM.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.