textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will remain across the region until a weekend storm system brings rain Saturday. Warming trend and rain-free conditions are then expected next week as high pressure returns.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Early morning warm air advection and post-sunrise sunshine will set the stage for another warm day across the region. During the afternoon, a maturing disturbance over the southeastern US will push upper level clouds across the region. This will slow the diurnal warming trend, capping highs in the lower 60s.

Tonight, clouds increase as the southern stream system moves eastward. Thickening clouds and warm air advection aloft around sunrise Saturday will keep area lows on the mild side. Overnight lows in the low to mid 40s. Light rain will enter the area late tonight and move eastward through the morning. Most, if not all, of our QPF will occur during the daylight hours on Saturday.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Elongated low pressure over the Gulf States Saturday morning will move across SC Saturday afternoon leading to widespread rain most of the day, initially due to isentropic lift on the east side of the low followed by PVA associated with upper shortwave moving across Southeast late Saturday. Total QPF for system is around 0.5-0.75", with highest amounts for southern areas and along the coast. Temperature gradient will be in place Saturday, with cool air inland keeping highs in the low 50s while the low pressure tracking near the coast will allow temps to warm to around 60F.

Rain will come to an end early Saturday night as dry air moves in behind exiting low. Lows in the mid to upper 30s as lingering moisture at the surface keeps low clouds around til Sunday morning, before those too get scoured out leaving mostly clear skies for Sunday. Brief cooling behind the Saturday system will keep high temps slightly below normal Sunday in the low to mid 50s. Clear skies and light winds will allow lows Sunday night to drop to near freezing.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Quiet weather with a warming trend in store for next week as mid- level ridge settles to the southeast. Brief surface ridging Monday will break down Monday night as parent high moves off to the northeast. A coastal trough develops Monday night into Tuesday, but any rain associated with it will stay offshore. Seasonable temps Monday will increase roughly 10 degrees to upper 60s Tuesday and upper 40s Tuesday night, with temps continuing to slowly into mid- week.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR throughout the period. Some LLWS is possible late tonight as winds increase aloft in warm advection. Surface winds will respond to keep us near the threshold, mainly inland. Thick cirrus will build through the afternoon and this evening. VFR CIGs may develop late tonight prior to showers arriving at inland terminals on Saturday morning.

Extended Outlook...MVFR and IFR conditions likely in rain Saturday and Saturday night as a storm system impacts the area. VFR late this weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Southwest winds continue today ahead of an area of low pressure over the southeastern US. The gradient will be strongest this afternoon and this evening in advance of the developing surface low with sustained winds approaching 15 knots. Gusts up to 20 or 25 knots are possible. Small Craft should exercise caution. High pressure will attempt to build southward tonight, led by a weak backdoor front. Expect winds to briefly be light and variable late tonight and early Saturday as the front is met with a southwesterly push over NC nearshore waters. Any precipitation and visibility impacts should hold off until Saturday morning.

Saturday through Tuesday...Low pressure will track across the Southeast Saturday, moving off the SC coast Saturday afternoon. Widespread rain during the day Saturday, with slight chance of thunder late afternoon over the coastal waters. Winds will be variable during the day Saturday as the low approaches and then moves off the coast, with northerly winds developing behind the low Saturday night. Seas around 2 ft Saturday morning will quickly increase to 3-4 ft by late afternoon with building S wind wave. Winds and seas peak Sunday morning, around 15-20 kts and 3-5 ft, with SCA conditions appearing less likely compared to previous forecasts. Conditions improve during the day Sunday, with NNE winds lingering through Monday with seas 2-3 ft primarily from NE swell. A coastal trough develops Monday night into Tuesday, leading to more variable winds and a chance of showers across outer coastal waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.