textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory issued for today covering the entire ILM land CWA.

Small craft advisory for the ILM NC Waters cancelled.

Aviation discussion updated with the routine 12Z TAF issuance.

High rip current risk for Brunswick county has been downgraded to Moderate for today. Moderate rip risk and strong longshore current forecasted for all local beaches today.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and scattered strong/severe tstorm chances to continue again today.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and scattered strong/severe tstorm chances to continue again today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...This period of unusual heat will continue thru today with temperatures expected to reach the mid and upper 90s with a stray 100 degree reading not out of the question. With sfc dewpoints in the 70s and not expected to mix down into the widespread 60s like the previous several days, resulting heat indices will once again breach 105+ degrees requiring another heat advisory for the entire ILM CWA.

Thunderstorm activity will likely again initiate west of the FA, with embedded mid-level s/w impulses aiding development given the ingredients for convective activity to occur already in place. It's this activity, not the isolated sea breeze activity, that poses a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat as it progresses to and across the FA later this aftn and evening. The SPC Slight Risk does affect portions of Northeast SC with Marginal Risk the remaining forecast area. Damaging winds is the primary severe tstorm threat.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms late today through Sunday and likely into Mon. This the result of a CFP from the north Sun followed by weak high pressure building in from the north early next week. The FA may reach lower 90s for highs Sun but Mon and Tue could see max temps only reaching the mid to upper 80s. Much of this will be based on just how much of this "cooler" airmass is able to infiltrate the FA and how much post frontal cloudiness and pcpn activity persists into next week. Nevertheless, do not anticipate any heat advisories Mon or Tue but could have a lagging Heat adv for only a portion of the FA Sun, mainly northeast SC.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Predominantly VFR with scattered diurnal cumulus clouds during the day around 4-6 kft. Scattered storms are expected this afternoon into early this evening, and have maintained PROB30s in the TAFs to reflect TSRA chances. W winds today around 10 kts with gusts to 20 kts, with winds move SWly at CRE/MYR after 15z with pinned sea breeze. VFR tonight with light SW winds and scattered clouds.

Extended Forecast...Showers and tstorms become more numerous Saturday night through Monday Night leading to periodic flight restrictions as a cold front drops thru the area. High pressure to slowly build into the region by midweek on with a gradual return to summer-like conditions.

MARINE

Have discontinued the SCA for the ILM NC Coastal waters. WSW flow has diminished-some early this morning with gusts only around 20 kt. Expect these winds to continue thru today, backing to SW nearshore today due to a relatively pinned sea breeze. Could observe infrequent gusts to 20-25 knots along the nearshore waters. Overall seas will run 3-5 feet through tonight. With the 5 to possibly 6 footers reserved for the offshore waters. A cold front is progged to drop southward Sunday with increasing shower and thunderstorm coverage late today through Monday night. Expect a wind shift to the NE and E late Sunday behind the front, that will continue thru Tue. Summer-like wind and sea regime gradually return during the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

As of this afternoon (7/10/2026) Wilmington (ILM) has recorded 3 consecutive days of highs at or above 100 degrees. This is the first time since 2012 and is only the 4th time this has occurred in the period of record, dating back to April of 1874. Four consecutive days of 100+ degrees has never been done before, fyi we are forecasting 99 for ILM today. Its gonna be close!!!

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108- 110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.