textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 8 AM EDT. KILM bottomed out at 53F this morning, the coolest low temperature recorded since June 3rd (51F that morning).

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend.

2) Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding will remain a concern during high tides through the weekend.

Tide gauges at Wrightsville Beach and Myrtle Beach continue to report tidal anomalies in the +1.0 to +2.0 foot range, held there by the broad cyclonic flow around strong low pressure now centered off the Mid Atlantic coast. When this anomaly is added to astronomical tides, minor coastal flooding appears likely to occur during each high tide today through at least Sunday morning. Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories is being issued for this morning's high tide, expected to peak around 7:30 AM at the beaches and around 10 AM on the Cape Fear River at downtown Wilmington.

The tidal anomaly should begin to fade Monday and Tuesday as the low weakens, but large astronomical tides enhanced by this month's Full Moon may make up the difference and maintain the potential for minor flooding during high tides through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Our cool Canadian airmass will gradually modify with dry weather continuing.

We've already had two mornings in a row with temperatures in the 50s and at least two more are coming. It certainly feels like Fall has finally reached the Carolinas! Northwesterly flow between low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast and high pressure over the Great Lakes and Ontario will maintain dry air and below normal temperatures through Sunday.

As the low weakens next week we should lose the flow from Canada, replaced by west to southwest winds bearing warmer temperatures and higher dewpoints. After highs today in the upper 70s to near 80, highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should reach the upper 80s to perhaps 90 degrees across the inland Pee Dee region. Normal highs for late September are lower 80s.

Rain chances appear to remain negligible through the next seven days. Mid and upper level high pressure will expand across the Southeast states for the middle and end of next week. The warm and dry conditions aloft should help keep the atmosphere too stable for significant chances of showers. This is not good news for parts of our region that did not pick up significant rain over the past couple of weeks. Lumberton's three-week rainfall total of 0.61" is only 18 percent of normal.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will continue over the coming 24 hours. Northwest winds could gust as high as 20 kt between 14-18Z this afternoon. Calm to light winds up to 5-6 kts overnight tonight.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through the first half of next week. There is a low chance of morning ground fog Tuesday and Wednesday as shallow Atlantic moisture returns onshore.

MARINE

Strong low pressure centered east of the Delmarva Peninsula should slowly move toward the NJ coastline Sunday into Monday. Decreasing winds and waves this far south mean we should be able to let the Small Craft Advisory expire on-schedule at 8 AM for the North Carolina coastal waters as seas fall below 6 feet inside 20 miles of shore.

Our dominant wave group should remain the 11 to 13 second northeasterly swell, decreasing in height over the next few days.

Weak high pressure should build along the Southeast coast next week, providing a light to moderate west to southwest flow across the Carolinas. Dry weather should continue. A small west to southwesterly wind chop will arise at times beginning Sunday, but combined sea heights should remain well below advisory criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.