textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

Cancelled the Small Craft Advisory for the SC waters.

KEY MESSAGES

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances look good mid week and again late week but rainfall amounts will not bring appreciable drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain chances look good mid week and again late week but rainfall amounts will not bring appreciable drought relief.

A warm front will move through Tue night followed by a cold front Wed night. In between we have some decent rain chances due to unseasonably high moisture levels (PWAT ~1.6"), limited instability (NBM 50th percentile SBCAPE <600 J/kg and 90th percentile SBCAPE <1000 J/kg), and some forcing for ascent from the fronts and mid- level shortwaves. Rain totals should mainly be a half inch or less, but some spots (especially to the northwest) could pick up an inch or more. Certainly welcome but unfortunately won't be making much dent in the ongoing drought conditions. Although deep layer shear is supportive of organized convection, we're currently thinking the cloud coverage should be great enough to help limit the development of sufficient instability. Thus, we don't expect any severe storms at this time.

Another pretty good chance of rain is expected late week as a low pressure likely impacts the area. Once again shear will be plentiful but instability appears to be even less than on Wednesday so really doesn't appear to be any risk for severe storms.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Lingering MVFR CIGs will continue to push southward as dry air infiltrates the area. High confidence that VFR will persist tonight as light northeasterly flow continues. High clouds may increase tomorrow afternoon with an approaching (and simultaneously) weakening cold front. Some showers may reach inland terminals, but VFR should continue regardless of precipitation.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Tuesday. Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances on Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next cold front. Some periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions are possible.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... Northeast winds have remained elevated today as a cold front pushes offshore. These breezy winds have maintained some 6 foot seas across the region. SC nearshore waters have improved faster due to sheltering from southeastern NC. NC nearshore waters will remain elevated over the next few hours. High pressure to our north and east will continue to extend southward tonight into Tuesday, bringing NE winds to the E and falling to 10-15 knots. Improving conditions should continue through late Tuesday. A weak sea breeze is likely during the afternoon.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure will move offshore ahead of a cold front which should move through Wed night. Wind gusts could near SCA levels (25 kt) later Wed/Wed night but not expecting the need for a headline at this time with seas peaking at around 4-5 ft. High pressure should then briefly return before low pressure impacts the area late week with the potential for SCA conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252.