textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gradual warming is expected through midweek followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming is expected through midweek followed by showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

Warming will take place as high pressure establishes itself offshore with a southerly return flow setting up. Wednesday will be the warmest with temps well into the 80s away from the beaches. Moisture will be on the rise Wednesday into Thursday with persistent and deeper S/SW flow. Dewpoint temps will be back up in the 60s on Wednesday with precipitable water values reaching around one and a half inches. Guidance has backed off on any rain chances on Wednesday...can't rule out any very isolated showers with the sea breeze but for now went with broad-scale sub-20% PoPs. High rain chances (likely-categorical) return Thursday as a deepening mid- to upper-level trough pushes a cold front closer. By the aftn, there will be better upper-level support to produce heavier showers and some thunderstorms, however the severe potential is not particularly high due to cloud cover and deep-layer flow being parallel to the front. Cooler and drier air will follow behind the front for Friday with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

There is a high probability for VFR conditions to continue over the next 24 hours. The only possible issue is a very low potential for reduced visibility in ground fog late tonight at KFLO. Seabreeze winds still blowing 12+ kt along the coast this evening should diminish overnight, but then should redevelop between 15-18z Tuesday with speeds expected to exceed 12 kt for coastal airports.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An approaching cold front during Thursday may produce early morning stratus along with some relatively brief restrictions within showers or thunderstorms during the day. VFR should return for Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... Southerly winds will be enhanced by a sea breeze through early this evening. While high pressure will gradually move to the northeast overnight, the southern extent of ridging will keep a southerly influence over the area through Tuesday. Winds will again be enhanced by a sea breeze during the afternoon. A few gusts to 20 knots will be possible near the coast. Seas will run mainly 1-2 feet in the coastal waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nm waters. Northeast swell energy will dissipate overnight and Tuesday with a southerly wind wave dominating the spectrum.

Tuesday night through Saturday... Sub-SCA conditions continue Tuesday night through at least Wednesday night with SSW flow on the west side of offshore sfc high pressure in the 10-20 kt range. Winds and seas then ramp up through the day Thursday as the pressure gradient tightens with an approaching cold front. Confidence is high for gusts to 25 kt and/or seas up to 6 ft late Thursday over the 0-20 NM coastal waters. As usual conditions will be slightly worse over the 20-60 NM waters, but confidence is low that a Gale Warning will be needed as the NW flow behind the front doesn't look to be much higher in magnitude than the pre-frontal winds. Marine conditions improve for Friday and Saturday as sfc high pressure builds over the area.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.