textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Heat Advisory for most of southeast NC and a large portion of northeast SC. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat Friday through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat Friday through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

Humid conditions along with above normal temperatures will result in an extended period of heat impacts across the forecast area. A large H5 ridge centered north of the area will linger for a few days along with weak onshore flow supporting dewpoints into the lower 70s at times. This setup will result in Heat Indices at or above 105F for northern portions of southeast NC and most of southeast NC on Friday. As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for a portion of the area. The exception would be the coastal zones aided by relatively cooler ocean air, and the southern zones where dewpoints will be lower.

These conditions will persist and expand southward across the remaining zones during Saturday. Additionally, the Heat Index could approach 110F during Sunday and Monday afternoon. There is some chance the forecast area could see some relief during Monday afternoon/evening as the ridge breaks down. This would allowing impulses in the westerly flow aloft to move into the area - potentially providing some much needed rainfall. Until then, precip chances are extremely limited given the dome in place and subsequent very dry column, especially above H85.

AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR with clear skies are expected with some brief diurnally driven cumulus possible, especially away from the coast, through the remainder of the afternoon. Generally light SEly winds will prevail as the seabreeze front pushes farther inland. Light/variable flow is expected overnight into Friday morning prior to the development of the next seabreeze circulation.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings starting Sun morning.

MARINE

Low pressure is located about 300 nm ESE of Cape Fear while a weak surface ridge axis is in place across the coastal and offshore waters early this afternoon. The low is expected to meander and weaken over the next couple days. The pressure gradient across the forecast waters will be relatively week tonight through Saturday morning. SSWly flow will increase a notch as the pressure gradient tightens Saturday afternoon and Sunday. Seas will be generally 2 to 3 ft or less tonight through the weekend, and around 3 ft farther offshore. A stronger SWly pressure gradient is possible Monday through Tuesday which would result in an increase in wave heights, and lessen the dominant wave period.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 3-7...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ017-024-033-058-059. MARINE...None.