textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A stationary front over the eastern Carolinas will slowly dissipate by Thursday. High pressure will build across the area Friday through the middle of next week. Warm and humid conditions will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms expected through early next week.

UPDATE

Added some mention of fog to the forecast this morning as areas away from the coast are seeing decent coverage based on satellite. This should clear up within the next couple hours. Updated 12Z aviation below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

A front will be stalled just outside of our area to the NW. As opposed to other days, forcing aloft will lack much organization as ridging should start to build in during the afternoon hours, keeping any strong PVA to our north. For this reason, there should be less organization with afternoon showers and storms than we've seen. The one thing that may focus POPs would be the afternoon sea breeze, so have raised them slightly there due to higher confidence. The column will dry slightly leading to gradual drying into the evening. A chance of showers and storms will linger overnight, primarily near the coast, as activity offshore could move onshore. A mix of clouds and sun with highs slightly muted in the lower to mid 80s, especially near the coast due to the seabreeze. Lows near 70.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

500 mb high pressure will build over the region and remain dominant through the short-term period. At the surface, high pressure will build into the area. The 700-300 mb streamlines show a developing anticyclone off the Georgia and South Carolina coast. With the flow on the west side of the anticyclone moving north and northeast over the area, the precipitable water values of 2" will become established over the forecast area and remain. Moderate instabilities will be available each afternoon and evening, and mesoscale forcing will provide the forcing needed for convection. Therefore, thunderstorms are expected each day.

Maximum temperatures will be in the upper 80s inland and the middle 80s at the beaches. Low temperatures will range from the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s at the coast.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Mid-level ridging will dominate Friday and Saturday, and a 500 mb trough will remain west of the Appalachians beginning Sunday into early next week. As mentioned above, the anticyclone off the southeast coast will stay east of Florida through early next week. The 2" precipitable water, moderate instability, and mesoscale forcing will be the primary driver for the convection.

Temperatures will vary little during this period, with maximum temperatures around 90 inland and the mid to upper 80s along the beaches. The lows are expected to range from the lower 70s inland to the mid-70s at the coast.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Have included TEMPOs for clearing of fog through 13Z for KFLO/KLBT. Otherwise, isolated showers near the coastal terminals are still possible through the morning but should generally calm down. Then activity will pick up in the afternoon with the sea breeze, brief MVFR/IFR possible with passing showers and storms. Activity will then shift towards the coast once more for the overnight period. Conditions could much be like right now where we get intermittent MVFR/IFR stratus at coastal terminals off the waters and then fog+low clouds inland.

Extended Outlook...Brief restrictions due to intermittent thunderstorms are possible through Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight, SW winds ~10 kts will increase slightly in the afternoon, becoming S'ly with the seabreeze. Showers/storms and storms will be possible over the waters, particularly early this morning and tonight. Seas will be generally 2-3 ft with a 2-3 ft out of the S at 5-6 seconds.

Thursday through Sunday, surface high pressure will remain over the coastal waters through this time. Southwest winds of around 10 knots will be the prominent wind direction and speed. Wave heights will be 2 to 3 feet with seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet on Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms are possible each day.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.