textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory continues for eastern portions of area. Issued Heat Advisory for the entire area for Thurs. Issued Coastal Flood Advisory for minor coastal flooding at beaches and along lower Cape Fear River for the high tide this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions through the end of the week.

2) Minor coastal flooding forecasted along area beaches and along the Lower Cape Fear River during evening high tide through at least Thursday.

3) Weak cold front early Saturday with brief improvement to the heat for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions through the end of the week.

Mid-level ridge over the Southeast will aid in above normal temperatures through (at least) Friday, with high temps in the mid to upper 90s Thursday and Friday. Triple digit highs possible Friday. Combined with summertime humidity, we will continue to have multiple days of heat products, heat advisories foe at least a portion of the area through Fri and possibly heat warning for a portion of the area where heat indices could reach 110F Thursday and Friday.

Northwest flow should continue to bring some storms down toward the local area as upper level impulses ride down over the top of the ridge. These storms should diminish as they reach into the eastern Carolinas this evening with plenty of dry air aloft. Although storms associated with adequate instability interacting with pinned sea breeze, and Piedmont trough could lead to a storm, for today, there should be enough ridging to keep storms at bay into this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding forecasted along area beaches and along the Lower Cape Fear River during evening high tide through at least Thursday.

New moon will aid in elevated tide levels. Latest total water forecast has water levels reaching minor flood stage along area beaches both with this evening's high tide and tomorrow evening. The Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington is also expected to reach minor flood levels the next few nights.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Weak cold front early Saturday with brief improvement to the heat for the weekend.

A weak cold frontal passage late Friday into early Saturday may bring scattered storms to the area. Lingering moisture behind the front will maintain chance pops during the day Saturday. While the front itself will be relatively weak this far south with the stronger forcing well to the northeast, it should weaken the ridge enough to lower temps for the weekend. Current forecast maintains slightly above normal temps through Sunday, before warming trend returns for early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR with mostly clear skies. Although a pinned sea breeze should produce some cu near coastal terminals, expect ridge aloft with plenty of dry air to help keep them at bay through this evening. Overall, expect light W-SW flow with a slight backing during the late afternoon evening and slight veering during overnight hours due to sea/land breeze.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. Scattered thunderstorms possible late Friday and Saturday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday with Bermuda high pressure offshore. Winds very light out of the W-SW generally around 10 kts or less becoming 10 to 15 kts, with gusts around 20 kts for the 20-60nm waters Friday. A weak cold front is forecasted to drop south across the area late Friday into early Saturday, with winds briefly turning north-northeasterly behind the front. Seas around 2 ft out to 20nm and 2 to 3 ft out to 60nm through Sunday, outside of slight increase in seas late Friday ahead of the front. SSW wind wave will be dominant feature, with weak ESE swell mixed in. Best chance of thunderstorms over the waters will be late Friday into Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099- 105>110. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058- 059. MARINE...None.