textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Darlington county has been added to the Heat Advisory for today. Aviation discussion updated with 06Z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

A strong ridge centered over the Carolinas will remain in place through Sun with heat and increasing humidity under the ridge continuing dangerous heat during a busy holiday weekend. Today will be a virtual repeat of yesterday with heat indices at or above 105 for northern portions of northeastern SC and most of southeastern NC. The Heat Advisory continues for a portion of the area, although it has been expanded slightly to include Darlington county based on what occurred Fri. Coastal zones and the southern tier of our forecast area remain outside of the advisory (that could change for at least some of these areas Sun).

Ridging weakens and moves eastward on Sun. High temperatures decrease by a couple of degrees, but dew points increase as the Bermuda high builds westward. Expect another round of heat indices around 105 degrees on Sun afternoon. A mid level trough passes north of the area early next week which should dent the remnants of the ridge. The flow aloft becomes more zonal, with weak impulses in the westerly flow crossing the area. The weakened ridge would allow for a brief reprieve from the heat and open the door for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially as the trough axis moves through the Mid-Atlantic on Monday. The local area remains under the influence of the western periphery of the ridge through next week holding temperatures above normal, enhanced by weak westerly downslope flow. Afternoon storm chances should return next week, albeit with reduced coverage; development will favor the Piedmont trough with the sea breeze becoming more active around mid-week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Widespread VFR. Cannot rule out brief, patchy ground fog around daybreak, but winds at the top of the boundary layer are a bit stronger than last night when minimal fog developed. Low level moisture is a little more concentrated inland, which may make FLO/LBT slightly more favored for development of brief MVFR fog, but confidence is low. ALong the coast onshore flow will again be around 10 kt with occasional higher gusts. Farther inland southwest winds will back to southwest as the sea breeze passes, but speeds will be under 10 kt.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings starting Sun morning. Threat for afternoon and evening storms returns Monday and continue through Wednesday.

MARINE

Surface high that had been north of the area will start shifting to the more typical Bermuda High location today into Sun. Once last day of a sea breeze dominated wind field before the more typical summer- time southwest flow sets up. Nearshore flow will be onshore, farther offshore flow will be more south- southeast with speeds 10-15 kt. South to southwest flow and a modified sea breeze on Sun with gradient pushing speeds to a solid 15 kt with gusts around 20 kt. More defined gradient Mon/Tue further increases speeds to 15-20 kt with higher gusts. Winds decrease Wed with the arrival a weak front decreasing the gradient. Seas around 2 ft start building late Sunday and into early next week, peaking around 3-4 feet on Tuesday in the extending SW fetch. The gradient weakens slightly on Wednesday, but the prolonged fetch keeps an elevated wind wave.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 3-7...

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-033-058-059. MARINE...None