textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No major changes to the forecast this update. Updated aviation discussion below for 12Z TAFs.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Tonight through Tuesday temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below normal, approaching record lows Monday night.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1: Tonight through Tuesday temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below normal, approaching record lows Monday night.
Strengthening low pressure will push off to the NE tonight, giving way for moderate CAA over the area and much cooler temps than previous nights. Breezy WNW wind will temper the temps a bit night with lows in the upr 20s to around 30 deg, but slightly better radiational cooling conditions Mon night will allow for lows in the mid 20s most areas with wind chill values as low as the upr teens/lwr 20s. Low temperatures will likely come close to record lows at Florence and N. Myrtle Beach (see Climate section below for details).
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
CIGs/VSBYs will continue to be impaired by rain until this afternoon where we could see a slight break. CIGs will start to break up with another, lighter wave of rain possible through the rest of the afternoon. Restrictions should be gone by 00Z. Otherwise, strong NW winds gusting 20-30 kts will linger through the rest of the TAF period.
Extended Forecast...VFR until Thursday when flight restrictions due to increasing rain chances return.
MARINE
Through Tonight...Low pressure will move up the coast through early Sunday before moving off to our NE by Sunday night. By the afternoon, strong offshore winds will set up on the backside of the low with increasing seas. Gale Force gusts with +6 ft seas will linger through tonight.
Monday through Thursday...Following the Gale Warning which ends Monday morning, SCA conditions are expected Monday into Monday night due to prolonged WNW gusts up to 25-30 kt. Improving conditions by Tue as sfc high pressure passes to the south, before another round of SCA conditions is likely starting midweek in the SW flow ahead of the next cold front.
CLIMATE
Record lows for Tuesday morning 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC 18 set in 1901 Lumberton NC 18 set in 1978 N. Myrtle Beach SC 26 last set in 2009 Florence SC 24 set in 1968
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.
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