textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 7 AM Tuesday. Also, Coastal Flood Advisories were added along all coastal zones for this afternoon's high tide cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Sfc high pressure ridging in from the north through mid week will allow for continued cooler temps than we've seen as of late, with PoPs no higher than around 20% and confined to far SE areas/offshore. Temps warm a bit into Thursday as the high pushes offshore with some guidance supporting 20-30% PoPs inland, but the next good rain chances (50-60% PoPs) don't arrive until Friday into the weekend as better shortwave energy aloft moves through the area. By Friday, heat indices are likely to return to around 100 degrees once again with upr-level ridging just off the SE coast.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR and dry through the 18Z TAF period. Main item of note is gusty ENE winds up to ~20 kt for the remainder of this aftn. Winds decrease tonight then rise again as normal daytime Tuesday, but with little change in direction due to high pressure still centered off to the north.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning in convection Friday into the weekend.

MARINE

A SCA remains in effect through tonight with moderate ENE flow as sfc high pressure positions off to the north. Decided to extend the advisory until 7 AM Tuesday as guidance typically undercuts seas in this regime and they actually already are running slightly higher than guidance. At that time and thereafter, the 6 ft seas should be confided to around and beyond 20 NM. Sub- SCA conditions then for the remainder of the week as the pressure gradient noticeably slackens.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.