textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes for the new forecast period. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for downtown Cape Fear tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Dry Conditions through Saturday with a break from the oppressive humidity

2) Wet and Unsettled Sunday into Next Week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry Conditions through Saturday with a break from the oppressive humidity

Sfc high pressure centered near the Ohio Valley will build south into the area through Friday. Meanwhile aloft, NW flow on the back- side of the Eastern US trough will support dry conditions.

While high temperatures will still be in the near-normal range of upper 80s to lower 90s, humidity levels will be more tolerable as afternoon dewpoints mix out into the mid/upper 50s inland to lower middle 60s near the coast. By Saturday, the humidity will be on the rise as low-level flow becomes increasingly southerly ahead of an approaching warm front.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Wet and Unsettled Sunday into Next Week

A shortwave trough drops south out of the Upper Ms Valley late late this week into the weekend, possibly cutting off into a weak upper low over the TN Valley/Deep South. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to become widespread to numerous across the area Sunday through early to middle part of next week as deep southwesterly moisture transport overspreads a quasi-stationary frontal zone bisecting the area. This set-up could brief some much needed drought relief, with rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches possible during the period.

Meanwhile, temperatures across the forecast area will remain near normal through the period.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

An upper level disturbance will exit the area over the next few hours. In it's wake, weak high pressure building into the area from the northwest combined with dry NW flow aloft will bring mostly clear skies and a high confidence in VFR conditions through the next 24 hours.

Extended Forecast...Moisture and lift will spread across the area starting Sunday as a mid/upr-level trough, possibly a closed low settles over Tn Valley/Deep South, bringing widespread showers/storms and flight restrictions through the early to middle part of next week.

MARINE

Through Sunday...A weak post-frontal pressure gradient will persist through Saturday, resulting in generally light winds and benign marine conditions. Winds will become northerly by sunrise, briefly veering to northeasterly Friday morning before becoming SELY Friday afternoon and Saturday as high pressure weakens. Seas will average 2- 3 feet through Saturday.

The pressure gradient begins to tighten Saturday night and Sunday ahead of a front. Southerly winds will will increase to 17 to 22 knots, gusting as high as 25 to 28 kts, especially across the outer waters. In response, seas will build to 4-6 ft. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for portions of the marine waters Sunday into Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.