textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The dense fog looks to be sticking to the N/NE. For this reason, letting the SPS for patchy dense fog go down at 5am.

Otherwise, aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Drier Tuesday with only isolated thunderstorms possible in the southern Grand Strand region.

- 2) Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday, and especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old frontal boundary surges through the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday, and especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old frontal boundary surges through the area.

The weak frontal boundary will slowly start to wobble back inland late tonight and Wednesday. This low-level lift will work with some shortwave energy to provide more chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms that start at the coast, and gradually push inland.

By Thursday, the best forcing comes into play, aided by a deepening trough in the Southeast that surges Gulf moisture into the Carolinas from SW flow. Rain chances become much more organized across the area Thursday through Saturday. Convective processes might allow for some areas to score a couple of inches of rain, which will continue to hammer away at the drought. Ridging from the west starts pushing in Sunday and Monday, cutting off the rain chances.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mainly VFR through the daytime 12Z TAF period. Have added a TEMPO for if IFR CIGs/VSBYs creep down from the NE to KILM within the first hour of the TAF period, but this may not come to pass. Mostly dry through the day with an afternoon sea breeze hitting the Myrtles ~17Z and ~20Z for KILM. A stalled front offshore could lead to showers/storms coming onshore overnight, impacting coastal terminals. Meanwhile, inland terminals may fog up.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The next system is due to come in sometime Thursday, creating wet and stormy weather through Saturday. Plenty of flight restrictions to come.

MARINE

Through Saturday...A weak front over the waters creates a variable wind that blows at a gentle to moderate breeze. Seas continue to improve from 2-3 ft down to 1-2 ft by midday Wednesday. From there, the front pushes back inland again, and SE onshore flow picks up Wednesday afternoon, veering to the SW Wednesday night through Saturday. Gradient winds pick up Thursday and Friday, but never get higher than a moderate breeze. This allows seas to pick up to 3-4 ft, but improve back towards 2 ft by Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.