textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Included a key message for the Heat Advisory and severe weather potential for Saturday. Continue to message a long duration heat event and minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River. The aviation discussion was updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat Advisory and a potential for a few strong to severe storms Saturday.

2) Dangerous heat is expected through much of the upcoming week.

3) Minor coastal flooding is likely into early next week along the lower Cape Fear River.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory and a potential for a few strong to severe storms Saturday.

High pressure aloft will support high temperatures in the mid to upper 90s. The heat combined with high relative humidity will yield Heat Indices of 104-109F with a few higher spots not out of the question. As a result, plan to issue another forecast area-wide Heat Advisory for Saturday from around 11a-8p. This strong heating in a high PWAT environment with a nearby weak front along with the seabreeze front will likely lead to scattered storms. Some of these storms could become strong to severe in the afternoon/early evening but the shear is not all that significant potentially marginalizing chances a bit across the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat is expected through much of the upcoming week.

By Sunday the mid/upper ridge will become focused across the lower MS Valley but it will continue to influence weather conditions across the area. The heat combined with high relative humidity will continue to support high Heat Indices across the area. The worst of the conditions will likely be Monday and Tuesday afternoon with a Heat Index potentially 110+ for a larger extent. Since the forecast area is on the eastern side of the ridge during this time, the W- NWly flow aloft could lead to some hard to time impulses being directed across the forecast area. These storms could provide relief for some areas this week, with lesser storm chances Monday and Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor coastal flooding is likely into early next week along the lower Cape Fear River.

High astronomical tides and continued tidal anomalies will lead to minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River with high tide tonight. These anomalies will persist into early next week, with the best chances for minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River with the nighttime high tide.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through the tonight into Saturday morning. The seabreeze will result in an uptick in winds at the coastal terminals, but nothing significant. Winds will diminish during the evening and become variable overnight into Saturday morning. Other than some diurnal cumulus there could be a few rounds of mid/high clouds. While there could be a stray shower/t-storm this afternoon/evening the areal extent will be minimal and no need to include at this time.

18Z Saturday through Wednesday...VFR conditions are expected through much of the period outside of any convection. SHRA/TSRA are possible Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening, especially for KLBT/KILM. Storms could result in a few restrictions Sunday, and Tuesday/Wednesday - especially each afternoon/evening.

MARINE

Tonight through Wednesday...A weak front will approach then northern waters then struggle to push significantly farther south resulting in variable winds. This boundary should waffle back to the north during Sunday with a return of SWly winds across the waters Monday before becoming variable again Tuesday. Seas will be 3 ft or less through the period, but will be locally higher/along with winds near any convection. Confidence is on the low-side regarding the wind given the subtleties with the aforementioned boundaries and convection.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Saturday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.