textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation section below for the 00Z TAFs. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 PM EST.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Expect breezy and cold conditions on Monday morning with wind chills as low as the upper teens to low 20s.

2)Very cold temperatures Monday night could challenge record lows at FLO and CRE.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Expect breezy and cold conditions on Monday morning with wind chills as low as the upper teens to low 20s.

As low pressure lifts away to the northeast and rapidly strengthens, much colder and drier air will filter in tonight and remain in place through Monday. Steady northwest winds around 10-15 mph combined with low temps in the upper 20s to around 30F will bring wind chills down into the upper 10s to low 20s. This is just shy of Cold Weather Advisory criteria, which is 15F. Nevertheless, conditions will be sharply colder than the last couple of weeks and anyone who will be outdoors early in the morning should dress appropriately for the wind and cold. High temps on Monday are expected to only reach the mid-upper 40s with continued breezy northwest winds, so conditions will remain chilly through the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very cold temperatures Monday night could challenge record lows at FLO and CRE.

Deep mid level trough swinging off the east coast Monday night. Meanwhile at the surface a long fetch of northerly winds between high pressure to our west and the exiting snowbomb off the New England Coast. This gradient will bring just enough wind to prevent radiational cooling but not enough for a Cold Weather Advisory even as lows dip into the 20s. The records are listed below in the climate section though admittedly ILM and LBT look quite safe.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

All VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Rain is now gone from the area, albeit a couple of isolated sprinkles may remain for some areas over the next hour or so. Gusty winds up to 25 kts for most terminals, except for KFLO, which is catching some of the higher gusts up to 40 kts. Gusts will relax somewhat over the next hour or two, but breezy WNW flow will continue through the night. Gusty winds pick up more again by Monday morning, although peak gusts should only reach around 25 kts. Gusts may start to calm right towards the end of the TAF period.

Extended Forecast...VFR until Thursday, when flight restrictions due to increasing rain chances return.

MARINE

Through Monday... As low pressure lifts away to the northeast and rapidly intensifies, strong NW flow will ramp up this afternoon, expected to reach gale force by 23 or 00Z. A Gale Warning commences at 21Z and continues through 12Z Monday. However, a period of 25-30 kt gusts is expected through the day on Monday. Thus, a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed following the Gale Warning into Monday night. As a result of these increasing winds, seas will respond by increasing to around 3-6 ft this evening and these remain in place through tonight. Seas will subside slightly on Monday as breezy offshore flow continues.

Monday night through Friday... The period will initialize with SCA once Gale Warning is lowered as the will still be a healthy gradient between high pressure to our west and the powerful nor'easter leaving New England Coast. The offshore fetch will keep the biggest waves outside of the 20nm zones but winds could take til Tuesday to stop gusting to advisory levels. Wind turns to the SW Tuesday night as the high migrates east across Florida. This return flow regime will strengthen as a cold front approaches. Headlines will be needed by Wednesday-no gales this time though. The wind pulls back slightly on Thursday possibly allowing for a lowering of SCA but one will likely be needed Thursday night into Friday as a cold front approaches.

CLIMATE

Record lows for Tuesday morning 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC 18 set in 1901 Lumberton NC 18 set in 1978 N. Myrtle Beach SC 26 last set in 2009 Florence SC 24 set in 1968

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.