textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Gale Warning has been cancelled for northeast SC coastal waters, as winds have dropped below gale-force, and a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect through Sunday night. The Gale Warning for southeast NC waters is now in effect until 11PM this evening.

High rip current risk in effect for all area beaches for Sunday. A High Surf Advisory has also been issued for Brunswick county Sunday morning through Sunday evening for breaking wave heights to 6 feet.

Aviation discussion updated below for 0z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Heavy rain will develop and persist at times through Sunday. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into the day Sunday

- 2) Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

- 3) Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heavy rain will develop and persist at times through Sunday. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible tonight into the day Sunday.

Warm frontal zone remains mostly to the south this afternoon but dewpoints and surface temperatures are increasing due in part to diabatic heating from rainfall. Guidance is in fairly good agreement on the front making its way north by 00 UTC as the movement remains slow due to convergence aloft to the northeast and the wedge type of environment. The precipitation characteristic will then shift from more stratiform to convective at this time. The flash flood potential remains in place as the slow movement of the system and the fact that several bands of rainfall with in between showers are expected. Pops overall remain high but expect a lull tonight from near midnight through the early morning hours.

The concern for severe weather moreso tornadoes remains in place due to several factors. First the slow moving nature of the warm front has allowed cells to ingest the favorable dynamics citing the rotating cells offshore today. Unfortunately the threat will continue basically through most of the day Sunday. In fact the Significant Tornado Parameter has high numbers for this time tomorrow across Cape Fear and the timing of day if favorable as is the banding feature of the precipitation from high resolution guidance.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

No changes to the previous thinking regarding coastal impacts this weekend. The increased onshore winds will yield rough surf and strong rip currents. Large breaking waves of 3 to 7 ft expected along the beaches north of Cape Fear. Wave-runup may also cause minor to moderate beach erosion, especially those beaches with a weakened shoreline structure with high tide this evening. Rough surf may linger into Monday, but should improve as the winds become more favorable.

The winds coupled with the high astronomical tides during the next several high tide cycles will lead to minor coastal flooding along all area beaches and the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

Gale warning remains in place through tonight for SE NC waters. Although winds are probably at their peak for this system wind speeds and especially gusts will remain elevated. Expect the warning to be followed by a small craft advisory Sunday. The marine community should be aware of perhaps a special marine warning or two being issued for rotating cells through Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Sub-VFR conditions will prevail across the area until Sunday afternoon. May see occasional improvements at CRE and MYR overnight, but confidence is too low for TAF inclusion. Ceilings may drop to 500ft inland overnight, particularly NE SC including KFLO. Visibilities will vary as showers continue through morning. Isolated thunder will be possible overnight, with best chance at KILM. Easterly winds will slowly weaken and turn southerly by Sunday morning.

Flight restrictions still in place Sunday morning, with showers continuing. Current forecast has widespread MVFR cigs by late Sunday morning. A line of storms is forecasted to move across the area midday-early afternoon Sunday, and have tried to time these using PROB30 groups in the TAFs. Southerly winds will become gusty Sunday, with gusts to 20-25 kts. Skies will finally begin to break up Sunday afternoon as dry air moves into the area.

Extended Outlook...VFR should return as dry air filters in late Sunday and prevail through Wednesday.

MARINE

Gale warning remains in place through tonight for SE NC waters. Although winds are probably at their peak for this system wind speeds and especially gusts will remain elevated. Expect the warning to be followed by a small craft advisory Sunday. The marine community should be aware of perhaps a special marine warning or two being issued for rotating cells through Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for NCZ099-105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. High Surf Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ110. SC...Flood Watch through Sunday morning for SCZ054>056-058-059. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-280. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256.