textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Gradual warming is expected through midweek followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Gradual warming is expected through midweek followed by scattered showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front Thursday.

Warming will take place as high pressure establishes itself offshore with a warmer southerly return flow setting up. Wed will be the warmest with temps well into the 80s away from the beaches. Moisture will be on the rise Wed into Thurs with persistent and deeper SW flow. Dewpoint temps will be back up in the 60s by Wed aftn with pcp water values reaching around one and a half inches. Overall should see chc of shwrs back in the forecast possibly by Wed, mainly along the sea breeze boundary inland of the coast, but definitely by Thurs as deepening mid to upper trough pushes a cold front closer. By Thurs aftn, there will be better upper level support to produce possibly stronger tstorms, but latest model runs show less coverage on Thurs. Cooler air will follow behind the front for Fri with dry high pressure in place into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure will maintain VFR conditions across the terminals today with abundant dry air in place. Southwest winds will veer to southerly this afternoon as a sea breeze develops and lifts inland. Intermittent gustiness may be observed at coastal terminals behind the sea breeze. Otherwise, expect steady south winds to continue through the end of the period as high pressure shifts offshore and maintains a pressure gradient into the night.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An approaching cold front on Thursday may produce early-morning stratus along with transient restrictions in showers or thunderstorms during the day. VFR should return for Friday.

MARINE

Through tonight...Offshore high pressure will maintain steady south to south-southwesterly winds through the period with locally enhanced winds nearshore due to the sea breeze. Seas will run mainly 1-2 feet in the coastal waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi waters. A northeast swell with a period of 8-9 sec will remain a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with small wind waves appearing as winds pick up to 10-15 kts in the coastal waters during the day.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure will establish itself well offshore through Thurs with a persistent southerly flow setting up. This will drive seas up slowly Tues through Thu, especially as gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front on Thurs. Also will see a spike in winds and backing of winds near shore in aftn sea breeze into midweek.

Winds should increase to and above SCA thresholds Thu with sporadic Gale force gusts across the offshore waters as gradient tightens ahead of approaching cold front. The cold front will move across the coastal and offshore waters Thu evening/night with post frontal gusty NW to N winds likely maintaining SCA conditions offshore through Thu night. Winds will become more onshore and variable as they lighten up through Fri before turning southerly into the weekend.

Seas will generally be less than 3 ft through Tue morning, increasing to 3 to 4 ft on Wed and 3 to 6 ft Thu. Should see up to 7 ft in offshore waters beyond 30 nm through late Thurs. Seas will drop on Fri as winds diminish.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.