textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Latest medium-range model trends continue to indicate a stronger offshore upper ridge, leading to decreased precip chances for the mid-late week period.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well-above normal temperatures and daily isolated pop-up showers are becoming more likely from Wednesday onward as a pattern more typical of summer takes hold.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Well-above normal temperatures and daily isolated pop-up showers are becoming more likely from Wednesday onward as a pattern more typical of summer takes hold.

While surface high pressure is expected to remain firmly in place over the western and central Atlantic through the week, an upper- level ridge is expected to shift from the Gulf to the southwestern Atlantic and strengthen. Persistent south to southeast winds and building heights aloft will lead to much-above normal temperatures in the low-mid 80s inland and dew points mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s into the upcoming weekend, with daily isolated pop-up showers expected starting on Wednesday, mainly well-inland from the coast. Operational models, ensemble probabilities, and cluster analysis tools continue to trend towards less precip, owing to a stronger upper-level ridge over the southwest Atlantic, which keeps a stalled front well north and west of the region. Thus, the main driver of precip chances will be strong heating of an abnormally moist air mass for this time of year, leading to a more typical summertime pop-up shower pattern with subsidence aloft keeping instability too shallow and weak for thunderstorms. While a cold front should eventually reach the area and bring higher rain chances, this may not occur until Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Generally VFR. There is some potential for MVFR fog, mainly across inland SC during the predawn hours. Winds at the top of the boundary layer and patches of scattered high cloud will work against widespread fog development, so any fog is more likely to be patchy and of short duration. East to southeast winds today with potential for gusts 15-20 kt at the coastal sites in the afternoon, but the general wind will limit development of a strong/well defined sea breeze. Loss of heating late in afternoon will lead to decreasing onshore flow as inland areas cool.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions although potential for early morning fog/stratus Wed. Sea fog may become an issue Thu.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure centered northeast of the waters continues to drift east through tonight. Ill-defined gradient through the period with east to southeast winds around 10 kt. Potential for some slight enhancement nearshore as inland areas warm well into the 70s today. However, onshore flow will prevent a tight temperature gradient, limiting the strength of the sea breeze. Seas around 3 ft through tonight with occasional 4 ft possible closer to 20NM.

Tuesday through Friday... Generally benign marine conditions are expected due to surface high pressure near and east of Bermuda maintaining a steady pattern of south to southeast winds through the week with speeds mainly between 5-15 kts. Expect at least some nearshore enhancement to wind gusts as above-normal temperatures on land result in a rather strong sea breeze each day, although prevailing onshore flow will reduce the temperature gradient near the coast. Seas are expected to hold in the 2-4 ft range, primarily driven by southeasterly swells with a period of 7-8 sec.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.