textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 18Z aviation forecast. Key messages remain largely the same for now.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected at least into mid week.

2) High pressure will prevail through the week bringing generally dry weather and coastal breezes.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected at least into mid week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure well to the southeast will continue to bring hazardous marine/surf conditions across the NE SC and SE NC coasts and nearby Atlantic waters. High astronomical tides and onshore winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is likely during each high tide cycle through at least Tue AM, with the highest tides in the morning.

High Surf: High seas up near 10 ft within 20 nm will likely lead to 6 ft surf heights early this week, especially along the beaches of New Hanover County. In addition, the large waves coupled with high water levels could result in some erosion, especially for E-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...High pressure will prevail through the week bringing generally dry weather and coastal breezes.

Persistent high pressure centered to the north will dominate the weather pattern leading to mainly dry conditions and coastal breezes. Generally near to below normal temperatures will likely become above normal mid to late week, especially daytime highs.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails. NNE/NE winds will prevail, gusting to near 20-25 kt at times during daylight hours.

Extended outlook: VFR to prevail with gusty NE winds expected at times, especially near the coast. There is a low risk for CIG restrictions, mainly during late night/early morning periods.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High pressure to the north will prevail through the period with low pressure far offshore tightening the pressure gradient. Gale Warning continuing into the evening but pressure gradient is forecast to relax overnight so gales should end this evening or overnight. Mariners should note that the NE winds counter to the northward- flowing Gulf Stream waters will result in very steep/hazardous maritime conditions offshore for much of the period. Small Craft Advisory conditions will also likely linger across the nearshore waters much of the time from late tonight into mid week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for NCZ106-108- 110. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Monday for NCZ107. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ108. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for SCZ054-056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Gale Warning until 11 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ280-284.