textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated. Overall forecast thinking remains similar.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday through Thursday will give way to cooler weather.

Previous forecast remains on track for this week with guidance showing good agreement on an upr-level trough diving into the Mid Atlantic during the mid week period, leading to elevated chances for rain (50-60% PoPs) Tuesday through Thursday. Not expecting enough precip to put a dent into the drought, but isolated pockets of heavy rain are possible on Tuesday...the Weather Predication Center has a marginal risk (threat level 1 out of 4) for excessive rainfall over part of the area. Environment is not really supportive of strong or severe storms, so while lightning will be a low risk, severe weather potential is very low. Thereafter, the upr-level low will cut off east of the Mid Atlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the area, leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while late week into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR and dry with light east wind to start off the 18Z TAF period. Confidence for low cigs or vsbys is moderate to high over KFLO/KLBT late tonight where associated conditions were added into the TAFs, with lower confidence for the other terminals where only VFR was maintained. Exception there though is TEMPO groups to reflect MVFR cigs at times in scattered showers starting early Tuesday morning in the moist onshore flow. Any IFR/LIFR conditions inland will improve to VFR by mid- morning Tuesday, though MVFR cigs may stick around at times through the day in any heavier showers.

Extended Outlook...There is a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in showers/thunderstorms/rain through Thursday; mainly VFR otherwise.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least Tuesday night with a fairly weak pressure gradient over the area. A low pressure system will develop offshore starting mid week leading to likely SCA conditions late Wednesday through Friday with even some gale gusts possible, mainly over the 20-60 NM waters, depending on how close to the coast the low develops and how quickly it strengthens. For now, expect mainly SCA headlines. An improving trend then for marine conditions into the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.