textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will bring drier conditions behind a cold front today before approaching low pressure leads to increasing rain chances tonight into Tuesday. A few stronger storms are possible, especially near the coast. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase again as we tackle another cold front and then an approaching frontal system. Drying is expected into early next week.

UPDATE

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: Very Low risk for a damaging wind gust/tornado late tonight near the coast *Rain Chances: None today; High tonight *Temps: Below normal today; above normal tonight *Confidence: High today; Moderate to High tonight

Details: High pressure will build in from the north today behind a departing cold front offshore. Light to occasionally moderate rain will end by daybreak. Expect cool, dry weather today with a decent N/NE breeze and a good bit of cloud coverage w/ temps staying below normal, around 50 (inland) to around 55 (coast). The high will be weakening in time as it gives way to an approaching upper trough tonight which will spur low pressure development along the northern Gulf Coast as well as off the FL/GA coast. A trough will then develop northward from the aforementioned secondary low toward the Carolina coast, possibly becoming a westward-moving warm front late tonight as strong southerly winds try to shove it inland across SE NC and NE SC. Expect increasing rainfall tonight as moisture/forcing increase and this should strengthen the inland in-situ wedge of high pressure which will help keep the front closer to the coast. However, there is still some uncertainty regarding the frontal placement so we'll have to keep a close eye on this boundary as it could lead to a few strong to possibly severe storms near the coast as warmer/moister air gets advected inland. There looks to be plenty of low-level shear/helicity as well as deep layer shear to support a very low (albeit non-zero) risk for damaging wind gusts and/or tornado if sufficient instability can materialize. Climatology would at least suggest very limited instability will occur due to winds coming across the cooler shelf waters. Should at least see some beneficial rainfall, generally ~0.25-0.5" with some locally higher amounts up to ~1" possible. Lows tonight should be a bit above normal, generally ranging from near 40 inland to near 50 at the coast.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Passing low pressure will bring a surge of moisture as well as enhanced lift leading to our first decent chance of rain in a while. Rainfall amounts will increase Tuesday morning as the low passes, 1- 1.5" likely across the area, highest amounts for the SE NC coast. In terms of instability we're not looking at much, most will be focused at the immediate coast and over the water, but shear and SRH will be very favorable. Depending on how the instability shakes out there could be a small threat for an isolated spinner worst case scenario. Due to the nature of flow around the low, subsidence and drier air behind on the back side, rain chances should come to an end fairly quickly once the low passes which for now looks like by Tuesday night. High pressure will build in for Wednesday with lingering dry conditions and little in the ways of difference in temperatures outside of the coast, which will see warmer highs in the lower/mid 60s Tuesday and then +10 deg cooler Wednesday as the entire area stays in the 50s. Lows will be near to just below freezing.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Dry air will remain predominant through Thursday with moisture working its way back in late Thursday night/early Friday morning in the return flow of the departing high. There's still some uncertainty but it looks like a backdoor cold front will push through around the same time, slightly colder conditions setting up for Friday with lingering rainfall chances through the rest of the period as we are impacted by nearby low pressure and another possible frontal passage over the weekend. Drier conditions are anticipated into early next week.

AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

12Z/01 TAFs: High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z, then moderate confidence. Dry high pressure will prevail today with gusty conditions through early afternoon. MVFR cigs possibly return around 00Z near the coastal terminals (KILM/KCRE/KMYR) before spreading inland to KFLO/KLBT by around 06Z as some heavier rain quickly overspreads the area ahead of a few low pressure systems to the south. A warm front near the coast late could even bring a few thunderstorms to the coastal terminals toward 12Z. IFR restrictions likely after 09Z, possibly reaching LIFR by 12Z. LLWS also possible near the coast late tonight but not mentioning just yet.

Extended Outlook...A storm system moving up from the Gulf will bring flight restrictions down to at least IFR Tuesday due to low clouds, heavier showers and possible storms (mainly near the coast). Coastal terminals (ILM/CRE/MYR) may also have LLWS Tue. VFR should return Tue eve and last through at least Thu before another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as late Thu.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High confidence this period. High pressure centered to the NW will extend southward into the area behind a departing cold front this AM. The high will weaken with time, especially tonight when low pressure develops to the south with a trough extending northward through the local waters. This will allow northerly winds to veer to the E and then SE, possibly even to the S by the end of tonight. Winds/seas will be elevated but mainly stay below Small Craft Advisory levels until late tonight.

Tuesday through Saturday...Passing coastal low pressure dragging a coastal trough onshore will lead to worsening marine conditions through Tuesday night, a Small Draft Advisory out for near 25 kt gusts and +6 ft waves. The system will be past us with northerly flow into Wednesday ~15-20 kts behind the cold front, building high pressure improving conditions into Wednesday night. Winds will increase into Friday with a backdoor cold front and then a low probability for Small Craft Advisory conditions Saturday with another frontal passage. Seas will be 2-3 ft come Wednesday where they'll remain until they start to increase ahead of the front into Saturday, 3-5 ft currently forecast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.