textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

There is a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms on Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point. Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mainly VFR to start of the 06Z TAF period aside from KILM where shallow dense ground fog has developed this past hour. Moist low-levels and decreasing winds will allow for moderate confidence in another round of LIFR to VLIFR fog and low cigs this morning, handled mainly by TEMPO groups. One factor that may limit the duration and magnitude of impacts is ongoing cirrus from an approaching front and patches of marine stratocumulus moving onshore. Nevertheless, given higher dewpoints than last night and mostly thin high cirrus are passing overhead, confidence is high enough to include fog and low stratus at all terminals. With SE winds picking up in the morning, fog and low stratus should exit the coast by around 13Z while restrictions linger inland until mid morning. After morning restrictions burn off, mainly VFR can be expected, although the initial cumulus field that develops around midday into the early afternoon can result in transient MVFR cigs.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times from late tonight through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high pressure builds directly into the area from the west.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.