textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories is in effect for the entire coastline from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT, and the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, from 9 PM to 2 AM EDT.

Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track for this afternoon's forecast update. Aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding expected at high tide along the coast and the lower Cape Fear River for at least a few more days, particularly during the daytime high tide cycles.

- 2) Warming trend kicks off Tuesday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return by this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding expected at high tide along the coast and the lower Cape Fear River for at least a few more days, particularly during the daytime high tide cycles.

High astronomical tides will continue to combine with positive tidal anomalies to deliver minor coastal flooding at high tide for at least the next few days. The flooding will be slightly more pronounced during the daytime high tides, where tidal anomalies are a bit higher.

Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories will go into effect tonight for the entire coastline from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC from 7 PM - 11 PM EDT, along with the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, from 9 PM - 2 AM EDT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend kicks off Tuesday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return by this weekend.

500 mb heights start picking up Tuesday, with ridging starting to poke up from the Gulf. This kicks off the start of above normal temperatures that appear to last Tuesday through Saturday. Highs in the mid-to-upper 80s looks like a slam dunk for most. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day of the week, with the heat index climbing up towards 95 in some spots (in October, mind you).

Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near the PNW all the way to New England helps to suppress the ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time. These rain chances appear to get a bit more bullish by Sunday and Monday, as part of the broad trough in the upper Midwest amplifies and sweeps through the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still much to debate about the timing and organization of this system, along with what kind of rainfall amounts to expect.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Solidly VFR and SKC through the 18Z TAF period. A weak seabreeze at KCRE and KMYR is keeping winds out of the SE to S at 5-6 kts, which will continue through this afternoon. Winds calm by sunset this evening. Some guidance wants to paint some MVFR fog near KCRE and KMYR before sunrise Tuesday morning, but ultimately think the atmosphere is too dry right now to support fog development. Said weak seabreeze may try to return again towards the end of the period.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through at least Friday. Fog might become a bit more of an issue during the mornings, particularly Thursday through Saturday. Earnest rain chances come back into play Saturday with the next system, which may introduce more organized flight restrictions.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable light breeze at night. Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night. In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period easterly swell at 10-13 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.