textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with the latest update.

A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for Pender County tonight for wind chill values as low as around 10 degrees.

A Special Weather Statement was issued earlier for the entire area for patchy black ice and hazardous travel conditions tonight into Tuesday morning.

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold air mass paired with snow on the ground will result in well below normal temperatures through Tuesday morning. Hazardous travel continues through early Tuesday before warming followed by rain chances Wednesday lead to significant improvements.

2) Low pressure moving eastward along a cold front will bring a good chance of rain Wednesday, possibly ending as a little wintry mix late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

3) Well below normal temperatures will continue through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold air mass paired with snow on the ground will result in well below normal temperatures through Tuesday morning. Hazardous travel continues through early Tuesday before warming followed by rain chances Wednesday lead to significant improvements.

Another night of well below normal temperatures tonight, with lows in the mid to upper teens by Tuesday morning. While not as cold as this morning, these temps will still be hazardous to those outside and without shelter. While winds right at the surface are expected to be near calm as high pressure ridges from the south, the inversion layer will be quite shallow due to elevated SSW winds in the low levels. This should prevent temps from truly crashing overnight. A Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for inland Pender county, where temps are most likely to drop to 15F or lower overnight.

The below freezing temperatures will also contribute to prolonged hazardous travel, with any melting today refreezing on the roads tonight. Good news is that with WAA kicking in early tomorrow as ridge passes to the south, high temps Tuesday are forecasted in the upper 40s (with low 50s for southern counties). This will help lead to quickened improvements to snow/ice coverage. And with forecasted temps above freezing Tuesday night and rain forecasted Wednesday, significant improvements will be seen by mid-week, with perhaps lingering snow coverage in places that had higher snow totals and in shaded/protected areas.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Low pressure moving eastward along a cold front will bring a good chance of rain Wednesday, possibly ending as a little wintry mix late Wednesday night or Thursday morning.

Not much change from the previous forecast regarding this upcoming system as guidance has been consistent in the timing of the approaching frontal boundary midweek. Looks to be plenty warm enough on the front end for plain rain with temps Wed in the 40s to lwr 50s. Following the sfc cold fropa, there is still some uncertainty over available moisture before the mid-level trough axis sweeps through, but PoPs remain in the chance range late Wednesday night with any lingering precip potentially ending as a snow or freezing rain mix, and any amounts being be very light.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Well below normal temperatures will continue through this weekend.

Persistent overall upr-level troughing along the eastern seaboard will allow for continued below normal temps. Fortunately several of the days should have high temps around 50 degrees - warmer than as of late, but low temps starting Wed night should be consistently at or below freezing. Cold Weather Advisories are possible again this weekend with wind chills down in the teens over inland areas.

Using our observed highs and lows since January 24 plus our forecasts through Feb 8, Wilmington's 16-day average temperature could end up the lowest since the long stretch of cold weather from 12/25/2017 through 1/9/2018.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z Wednesday as high pressure prevails. Very low risk of shallow fog across interior portions of SE NC and NE SC around 12Z, especially at KLBT.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR. A cold front will bring the next chance of widespread precipitation along with restrictions late Tuesday night through early Thursday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...Westerly winds around 10 kts through tonight will shift to southwesterly Tuesday, increasing to 15 kts Tuesday afternoon as high pressure to the south shifts offshore. Seas 2-3 ft tonight and tomorrow, combination of wind wave and slowly weakening NE swell.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...The next cold fropa occurs Wednesday night, with the post fropa CAA possibly leading to marginal SCA conditions for Thursday as N winds gust to 20-25 kt. Sfc high pressure then briefly ridges in from the south Thursday night, before winds and seas ramp up again for late Friday in association with the next cold front, likely bringing at least marginal SCA conditions for the outer portions of the marine zones.

CLIMATE

Record low temperatures were observed across the area Monday morning, including our four climate sites. Notably, Lumberton (KLBT) recorded a low temperature of -1F, which is tied for 2nd all-time coldest temperature on record. Florence (KFLO) got down to 8F, which is tied for 3rd coldest on record and is the record low for the month of February. Wilmington's (ILM) low of 14F this morning breaks previous record low for Feb 2 of 17F (set in 1980) and North Myrtle Beach (CRE) low of 19F breaks previous record low of 20F set in 1945.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 8 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ105. SC...None. MARINE...None.