textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast. However, confidence continues to increase in an extended period of dangerously high heat indices of 100+ deg F later this week through early next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected late this week through early next week, likely reaching near record levels inland.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected late this week through early next week, likely reaching near record levels inland.

Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb heights at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before weakening as it then settles over the Carolinas late this week and gradually moves into the Atlantic over the weekend. However, the low-mid level air mass should remain anomolously warm across the region which will keep temperatures above normal through early next week, especially across inland areas of SE NC & NE SC where it will likely be near record levels. Given the placement of this upper high and deep- layer flow mainly between north and east until this weekend, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated across the local area, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat during the work week and then only a low chance this weekend. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the air temperatures at least thru Thursday, except around the sea breeze where ocean temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109 deg F for 2+ hours) and/or Extreme Heat Warning criteria (110+ deg F) are hard to pin down as air temperatures and dewpoint temperatures will continue to be refined in the coming days. As of now, it looks like Heat Advisories are possible starting Friday with Extreme Heat Warnings even possible starting Saturday (mainly for the coastal counties). Regardless of the exact heat indices though, everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the extended period of dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions, especially given the holiday weekend and abundance of outdoor activities. You can visit our heat webpage (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info to help you plan and stay safe.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

06Z Wed thru 06Z Thu: Expect VFR conditions to generally prevail. However, there is a low risk for MVFR/IFR cigs/vsbys this AM thru about 14Z as a shortwave aloft moves through and low-level moisture remains high. There is also a low risk for MVFR/IFR cigs to return toward the end of the period, mainly impacting KCRE/KMYR.

06Z Thu thru Sun...Mostly VFR with generally dry conditions anticipated as high pressure prevails thru the weekend keeping rain coverage very minimal. The better chance for restrictions will likely come from low clouds/fog each late night/morning.

MARINE

Wednesday through Sunday...Expect more easterly winds through Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the northeast. Winds should then shift more southerly Friday as a weak trough/low to the south shifts inland and Atlantic high pressure regains control. Expect stronger sea breezes starting late week as temperatures rise well above normal inland. However, conditions should remain below headline thresholds thru the period.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 3-7...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...None. MARINE...None.