textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track for the main forecast package. Rain chances for this afternoon were brought down a bit along the northern periphery of the forecast area.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Inland Today.

2) Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible by the Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Inland Today.

As of 2 AM EDT, a shortwave trough axis is situated along north and west Georgia, with a loose line of showers and storms noted along the Blue Ridge mountains to the foothills of Athens to near the Chattahoochee River in Columbus.

This shortwave will push to the ENE, where deepening low pressure along the Piedmont will allow for vorticity to strengthen aloft. The broken line currently in the Peach State will gain more organization this afternoon as the low within the shortwave matures and establishes more vertical continuity.

Most of the activity will be displaced to the north and east of the forecast area. Even so, the mid-level energy will be riding along the northern periphery of the area, allowing for a chance for scattered showers and storms in the Pee Dee region and NC coastal plain this afternoon, and into Pender County by early this evening. The energy aloft will be interrupted by dry air intrusion, keeping the activity isolated or scattered. DCAPE doesn't appear to be as strong as yesterday, but is still over 1000 J/kg, so mixing down a few strong gusts wouldn't be too hard. Regardless, severe weather is not expected. Forecast dries out late this evening as the surface front starts moving through the area and brings in drier air from the northwest.

Heat indices in the coastal regions will likely hit the triple digits today, but remain under Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees for 2+ hours).

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible by the Weekend.

Dry forecast in store for the rest of the work week, with only modest rain chances in store for the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to near 90 Wednesday, becoming the lower 90s inland, upper 80s at the coast by Thursday.

Friday into the weekend, significant heat starts creeping in, as ridging in the Atlantic pushes back into the South. Triple digit heat indices return Friday, and appear to get into Heat Advisory territory throughout the weekend. Limit time outdoors and drink plenty of water!

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Two aviation weather concerns exist today. Gusty southwest winds will begin to mix down to the surface by 15z this morning, bringing surface gusts to 25 knots. These breezy winds should continue through the day, veering more westerly with time as a cold front approaches the area this afternoon. The front should push through prior to sunset with lighter northerly winds anticipated this evening.

The second aviation weather concern is fast-moving showers and thunderstorms anticipated to develop along of and ahead of the front. The first wave of convection could arrive across the Coastal Plain as soon as 14-15z. Models indicate a low potential for impacts at KFLO and a moderate potential to KLBT. This convection, possibly joined by scattered new convective development along the seabreeze front, has a moderate potential for impacts at KILM beginning around 18z. While this wave of convection should remain north of Myrtle Beach, there is a low potential new convection could develop along the cold front itself as it sags south this evening, mainly after 22-23z.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR through Saturday. The exceptions would include some potential for fog Thursday and Friday mornings, and some slightly better convection chances Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 11 AM EDT to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Gradient winds out of the southwest will tighten up to a fresh breeze this afternoon, with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times. Seas will linger around 4-6 ft out 60 nm. Cold front moves through the waters late tonight, allowing the winds to veer to the NNW and improve to a moderate breeze. Seas also improve to 2-4 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday...Moderate breeze out of the northeast will veer to the east by Wednesday evening, improving to a gentle breeze, with seas at 2-3 ft. Winds will gradually veer to the SSW by Friday, with conditions remaining about the same. Gradient winds quickly pick up Friday night through Saturday, ramping up to a fresh breeze once again, with seas increasing to 2-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.