textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated but overall there are no major changes to the forecast message.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will slowly move offshore bringing a warming trend with temperatures quite a bit above normal much of the week. Seems to be decent agreement on a more amplified weather pattern later in the week, with a few upper disturbances likely bringing increasing moisture and rain chances. However, details regarding timing and amounts of rainfall are more uncertain. At this time ensemble guidance suggests total rainfall through the weekend is most likely to be ~0.5" or less for most locales.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

18Z Sun thru 18Z Mon: High confidence in VFR conditions with very low chances for MVFR cigs starting tonight, especially at the terminals near the coast (KILM/KCRE/KMYR). Gusty NE winds at times will continue, especially at the same terminals.

18Z Mon thru Fri...Generally VFR, with a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers toward mid week.

MARINE

Through Friday...High pressure centered north of the area will slowly shift offshore ahead of a weak storm system impacting the area mid week. Strong NE winds and elevated seas to Small Craft Advisory levels will continue into tonight, with a low to moderate risk of 6+ ft seas lingering into Mon, especially for our southern SC waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.