textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 12Z TAFs. High rip current risk expanded to include Georgetown and Pender county beaches, in addition to New Hanover.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure to the northeast weakens today, though minor coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure to the northeast weakens today, though minor coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf conditions continue.

Northeast winds continue, albeit with lower speeds as high pressure northeast of the area weakens and moves farther offshore. However, strong, dangerous rip currents as well as strong long shore currents, for east facing beaches, remain a concern through the end of the week. Marine forecast details can be found in the marine discussion.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the late morning/midday high tides. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for this morning's high tides.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry for the next several days. Cloud cover around this morning with low level moisture moving onshore. The enhanced moisture and weak low level convergence may lead to a few sprinkles along the SC coast around daybreak. At the surface, high pressure continues to weaken today, decreasing northeast winds. Temperatures above normal through Fri before a dry cold front moving in from the north Fri night drops temperatures near normal for the weekend. Rain chances may return late Sun or Sun night as a front system affects the Southeast. Confidence in timing and amounts remains limited.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Generally VFR through the valid TAF period. Few to scattered clouds during the day around 5-7 kft. NNE winds today around 10 kts or less. Tonight, a few clouds with light to near calm winds. Patchy shallow fog is possible late tonight into early Friday morning for parts of the area, but confidence in location and occurrence is too low for TAF inclusion at this time.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday outside of possible patchy fog Friday morning. MVFR/IFR possible Sunday night into Monday morning with the next system.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory continues, although based on latest buoy obs it may be a bit marginal outside of 15-20 NM miles. Northeast winds continue into next week, but speeds will be decreasing through Fri as high pressure to the northeast continues to weaken. Cold front moves in from the north Fri night, followed by a surge in northeast flow this weekend. Speeds peak around 20 kt, but will stay on the high end of the 15-20 kt range through Mon. Seas will flirt with advisory thresholds Sat-Mon, especially for the 10-20 NM portion of the nearshore waters. The presence of the easterly swell, which will be 4-5 ft this weekend, coupled with a strengthened wind wave may be enough to warrant an advisory. Winds and seas will be a little higher for the 20-60 NM waters this weekend and early next week, with northeast flow 20-25 kt and seas 5-7 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256.