textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track with the afternoon forecast cycle. Aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible Sunday.

- 2) Cooler Temperatures Monday and Tuesday Become Warm Again by Wednesday With No Rain in Sight.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Cooler Temperatures Monday and Tuesday Become Warm Again by Wednesday With No Rain in Sight.

Cold front will be offshore by Sunday night, allowing the area to dry out fast. Sunday night and Monday night look rather chilly, with lows in the low-to-mid 40s (no worries for frost though). Highs in the low-to-mid 70s Monday, just a touch below normal for mid-late April.

Stronger cold air advection comes in by Tuesday, and highs may struggle to 70 in some spots in southeast NC. From there, ridging starts to build aloft, and Canadian high pressure slips into the Southeast and offshore throughout the week, triggering air mass modification. Wednesday through next Saturday, temperatures warm up a bit everyday, easily getting back into the 80s for most. 90s may come into play again by next Friday.

Not a hint of rain in sight for most of next week. A front may move in again late next weekend, but probably won't do much to touch the ongoing drought.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR thru the 24 hr fcst period but isolated showers are possible toward the end of the period inland. Main story will be winds which will be S to SW invof 10KT this aftn with higher gusts near the coast. Winds will shift through west to north and inland terminals by the end of the period and west to northwest at coastal terminals.

Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR possible in showers Sunday, mainly after 18z. Northerly winds behind the front could gust to 25 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Within 20 NM, S to SW winds 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts this afternoon will shift to the north Sunday afternoon and increase to 15 to 20 KT Sunday afternoon with higher gusts. Seas should run 2 to 4 FT through the period.

From 20 to 60 NM out, expect S to SW winds of 10 to 15 KT this afternoon will increase to 15 to 20 KT tonight and a solid 20 KT Sunday before becoming west in the afternoon. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will build to 4 to 5 FT with 6 footers possible later in the day.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Moderate to fresh breeze out of the NNE expected Sunday night. Gusts may occasionally reach up to 25 kts at times in the evening, but it does not appear consistent enough to warrant a Small Craft Advisory at this time. Gradient winds loosen down to a gentle breeze Monday afternoon. Seas are at 2-4 ft along the coastal waters, going up towards 5-6 ft along the offshore waters. Monday night into Tuesday morning, a much weaker, subtle front pushes into the waters, allowing a moderate breeze to poke up out of the NNE again through late Tuesday morning. Seas come down slightly towards 2-4 ft everywhere. Winds then veer to a SSW component late Tuesday through Thursday, mostly operating between a moderate to fresh breeze. Seas lock in at 1-3 ft along the coastal waters, 3-4 ft along the offshore waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.