textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories issued for all beaches and for the Lower Cape Fear River. Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs. Key messages condensed although forecast thinking has not changed significantly.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions.

High pressure remains centered north of the area today with the gradient in a more relaxed state compared to recent days. However, the duration of decreased winds will be brief. Reinforcing high builds down the coast Wed into Thu, bringing another surge in northeast winds as the gradient tightens. Lack of any surface low will prevent strong, gusty winds, but northeast flow will be strong enough to cause several issues. The potential for strong, dangerous rip currents remains elevated through the end of the week along with the potential strong longshore currents for east facing beaches. For marine implications see the marine section.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the morning high tides. An advisory has been issued for the beaches and the Lower Cape Fear River for this morning.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. Midweek there will be an increase in low level moisture, leading to an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures near to slightly below normal today and tonight turn slightly above normal Wed through the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail into tonight with a few passing high clouds and light northeast winds. Winds turn easterly for coastal terminals for this afternoon, though generally remaining 10 kts or less. Low level moisture advection from the north early Wed morning may bring IFR/MVFR stratus to our area during the last couple of hours of the TAF period, particularly at KILM and KLBT.

Extended outlook: Low ceilings possible Wednesday morning. High potential for MVFR and possibly IFR for LBT/FLO. Otherwise VFR with gusty NE winds at times, especially near the coast.

MARINE

No marine headlines currently active, although would expect to see another Small Craft Advisory issued later today starting Wed. Northeast flow continues today, but gradient has weakened, allowing lower wind speeds. Seas continue falling and are now under 6 ft within 20 NM. High pressure to the north is reinforced Wed into Thu, leading to an increase in northeast flow. The lack of any notable low pressure system will keep speeds under 25 kt, barely touching 20 kt Wed and Thu. However, the extended duration of the enhanced northeast flow, on top of an already elevated sea state (easterly swell 4-5 ft), will push seas over 6 ft Wed and Thu. Gradient starts to relax late Thu with winds and seas gradually decreasing Thu night into Fri. Looks like a weekend without headlines, although conditions are still likely to be somewhat treacherous with northeast winds 15-20 kt and seas 4-5 ft - a mix of swell and wind wave.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...None.