textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A soaking rain is in store for tonight into Tuesday as low pressure moves up along the Carolina Coast. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday. Rain chances will increase again with another storm system as we head into the weekend. Drying is expected into early next week.

UPDATE

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z/02 TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

High pressure has produced a wedge of cool air over the Carolinas. Continuous northeasterly winds this evening should reinforce cooler temperatures through tomorrow morning. Moisture advection increases out of the southwest this evening and clouds should increase and lower overnight. Lows a little cooler than afternoon highs: upper 30s inland mid to upper 40s at the coast.

Isentropic lift should take advantage of the depth of moisture just after midnight. Rain will be heavy at times late tonight into Tuesday morning. Precip into the shallow cool air layer will keep highs in the upper 40s or lower 50s for most of the area. Near the coast, a coastal trough will push onshore just after sunrise. This will briefly push temperatures into the upper 50s, possibly lower 60s along the immediate coast.

Total rainfall has settled into a tighter range with the latest model runs. The surface low is likely to pass along the immediate coast or just offshore. This should keep the better instability offshore. Rain rates should be a little lower overall because of this. HREF LPMM has max QPF of around 2.00 inches with better chances inland. Generally, the I-95 corridor should see 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rain with a few more breaks in the shower activity near the coast bringing around 0.75 and 1.25 inches.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure will build in behind exiting storm system Tues night into Wed. Continued below normal temps expected with cold and dry air advection in northerly flow. The high will weaken as it drifts nearly overhead on Wed. Between the CAA Tues night and dry and calm conditions Wed night, expect overnight lows to be down near or below freezing most places. The immediate coast will experience slightly warmer temps in the mid 30s. The high temp on Wed will struggle to get into the 50s with plenty of sunshine.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Shortwave digging down into the SW CONUS will be extending from deep upper low over eastern Canada on Thurs. This will produce a stream of moisture in mid to upper W-SW flow extending back into Eur Pacific. At the same time a sfc cold front will drop down from the north reaching through our area by early Fri. This will set the stage for another rain event late Fri into Sat as the shallow cool air gets overrun by the increasing warm and moist flow out of the SW. Expect best lift Fri night into Sat as wave of low pressure rides up the Southeast coast. Could be similar to tomorrow but will need to see how the exact track and strength of low evolves. For now, near to below normal high temps will continue. As moisture rises with dewpoints increasing several degrees late Thurs into Fri, temps will mainly be in the upper 30s to lower 40s most mornings. Clouds and rain will also affect the temps Fri into the weekend. System should exit by Sun with drier and cooler high pressure building in for early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR cigs are working north and west through the terminals several hours ahead of schedule. A thick deck of high clouds is veiling these cigs, so there may be breaks in the cloud deck that will not be foreseen at the terminals for the next several hours until rain arrives later tonight. Coincident with this rain will be IFR to LIFR cigs through tomorrow morning. Although vis should predominantly stay MVFR in rain and mist, rain may be heavy at times during the morning hours, resulting in IFR to LIFR vis restrictions at times. A coastal trough/front may creep inland enough during mid-morning to yield a relatively brief period (around 2 hours) of little to no rain and a low chance of MVFR to IFR cigs at the eastern terminals. This window will be short-lived as a cold front sweeps eastward and brings another round of rain across the area. LLWS will be a concern for eastern terminals from around the time of this coastal trough crossing the beaches through the passage of the cold front as a strong low-level jet pushes eastward, with southwest winds peaking at around 50kts at 2kft. Rain will abate from west to east during the afternoon with cigs gradually rising after the rain ends, although it appears MVFR cigs may still be in place by 00Z.

Extended Forecast... VFR returns Tuesday night and continues through Thursday. Another storm system will likely brings restrictions as early as late Thursday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...High pressure has created a wedge across the Carolinas. Later today and tonight, an area of low pressure will develop to our southwest and move northeast, compressing the pressure gradient as it moves closer to our area. As the coastal low moves along the northeastern SC and southeastern NC coastline, easterly winds offshore will increase above SCA advisory thresholds and wind-driven seas should surpass 6 feet. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for all coastal waters through Tuesday evening. Winds should fall below SCA thresholds late Tuesday afternoon, but seas will take some time to relax.

Tuesday night through Saturday...High pressure will build in behind exiting storm system Tues nigh into Wed with seas dropping below 6 ft Tues night. Northerly flow will weaken and become a bit more variable as high shifts closer overhead and weakens on Thurs. A cold front will drop down from the north early Fri followed by a wave of low pressure moving up the coast Fri night into Saturday. Winds will increase up to 15 kts Fri into Sat, but should remain below SCA thresholds. Seas up to 3 early Wed will diminish and remain 3 ft or less through Fri night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Tuesday to 1 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.