textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Chances for heavy showers and storms during the remainder of this afternoon and evening have decreased, although light rain may still occur at times. Chances have increased for late tonight into Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times.

2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and heavy rainfall at times.

Mid-upper troughing over the eastern US will gradually weaken and lift away through this weekend while upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week. Near the surface, a stalled front northwest of the area will keep plenty of moisture in place, with precipitable water values generally between 2-2.25 inches, highest near the coast. Rainfall rates of 1-2"/hr can easily occur in a thunderstorm in this environment. Periods of enhanced shower and thunderstorm coverage are expected given this setup. Confidence is increasing for one such period to occur tonight into Saturday morning near the coast, followed by isolated to widely scattered afternoon activity. Heavy rainfall capable of producing flash flooding is the primary concern with any slow-moving thunderstorm, especially if storms end up backbuilding over the same area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

As upper-level high pressure builds eastward early next week, temperatures will rise above normal and shower/thunderstorm chances will decrease to below seasonal norms. With the core of the high pressure center shifting nearly overhead by midweek, expect well- above normal highs in the middle to potentially upper 90s. Heat Advisory criteria may be reached between Wednesday and Friday, although enough dry air in the lower atmosphere may be able to keep heat indices from reaching 105F or greater across much of the area. Regardless of whether a Heat Advisory is needed, a period of mostly sunny, dry, and abnormally hot conditions is becoming more likely.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Extenive high cloud cover is limiting confidence with respect to heavy shower and storm development this afternoon, although it still appears inland terminals have a slightly higher chance due to thinner cloud cover and more breaks up there. PROB30s remain in place through this afternoon into the early evening given the moist environment. Overnight, high cloud cover will determine how impactful low cigs/vis get, again with the highest chance for MVFR to LIFR impacts at the inland terminals. Restrictions there will be slow to lift tomorrow morning as multi-layered clouds and potential showers and storms limit daytime heating, keeping MVFR to IFR cigs in place through the end of the period. Near the coast, although vis/cig restrictions due to fog and low stratus appear less likely tonight than inland areas, showers and storms coming off the ocean may cause impacts from late in the night through tomorrow morning.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through mid next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with little to no activity expected Monday through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... South to southwesterly flow weakens tonight as a stalled front shifts to the coast. As this front washes out and high pressure north of the area takes over, a light east to southeast flow is expected from Saturday through Sunday night. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of south to southwesterly winds at 5-10 kts. Seas are expected to run 1-2 ft in the 0-20nmi zones and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi zones primarily driven by east-southeast 8-9 sec swells. Southerly 1-2 ft wind waves will gradually weaken tonight, leaving its component at 1 ft or less from Saturday onward.

CLIMATE

Wilmington, NC is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently 0.1 deg F above 2011's average, the current record-hottest summer season.

#1 2026 81.9 deg F (with four days to go) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.