textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood Watch has been cancelled as heavy rain has now moved offshore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered storms move across tonight through Sunday, mainly across northeast SC.

2) Brief warming trend early this week, with Tuesday the hottest day of the week.

3) Storms possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with chance of strong to severe storms across northern areas of CWA.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered storms move across tonight through Sunday, mainly across northeast SC.

Heavy rain earlier today has moved offshore. While spotty showers will be possible through this evening, the flood threat has lessened considerably and therefore the Flood Watch has been cancelled. The persistent stationary front from the last couple of days will finally move offshore tonight. PVA aloft over the Carolinas late tonight into Sunday will spark additional showers and thunderstorms, mainly across northeast SC where 2+ PWAT moisture lingers with CAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg, while mid-upper levels dry out a bit for NC. No widespread flooding concerns for Sunday - however, if any pockets of heavy rain move over areas that received decent rain over the last couple of days isolated flooding may develop.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Brief warming trend early this week, with Tuesday the hottest day of the week.

Predominantly dry and mostly sunny during the day Monday and Tuesday, along with increasing 850mb temps, will push temps back to near normal Monday followed by above normal Tuesday. Forecasted heat indices are in the triple digits both afternoons, with moderate to major Heat Risk forecasted for Tuesday. May see widely scattered storms Monday afternoon, particularly along active sea breeze, but slight inversion aloft may limit potential.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Storms possible late Tuesday into Tuesday night, with chance of strong to severe storms across northern areas of CWA.

The next system is progged to impact our area late Tuesday through early Wednesday, and a low pressure system moves across the Mid- Atlantic and a cold front approaches the Southeast. Low level wind field strengthens late Tuesday, particularly for northern parts of CWA. While majority of forcing is currently forecasted to remain north of us, there is a chance of scattered storms for our area late Tuesday into Tuesday night. SPC's 15% severe weather outlook for Tues/Tues night clips our northern counties - too early for any specifics but worth keeping an eye on.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of this afternoon the old front continues to linger across the northeast SC and southeast NC. The bulk of the deeper convection is displaced off the coast with mainly debris/leftover -SHRA/SHRA moving across the coastal terminals. CIGs will vary from IFR-MVFR this afternoon, then primarily IFR CIGs and some FG/BR expected with higher confidence tonight into the early Sunday morning hours. While the highest precipitable water will be focused off the coast enough lingering moisture could spark a few more SHRA/TSRA Sunday, but areal extent much more limited compared to today for inclusion at any of the terminals. Light/variable wind this afternoon will become northerly all areas as the front drifts south of the area. Either way the pressure gradient will remain weak with light winds expected through the period.

Extended Forecast...Some FG restrictions are possible late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with relatively brief flight restrictions from diurnal convection Monday through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Stationary front moves offshore tonight, slowly moving away from the coast Sunday/Sunday night. This will keep winds rather variable and generally under 10 kts through Monday, with brief uptick to 10-15 kts NW winds for 20-60nm waters tonight. The exception will be within scattered storms that may impact coastal waters early tonight and again off NE SC coast during the day tomorrow. Winds turn from SE Monday to SW Tuesday, through remaining relatively light. Seas around 2-3 ft out to 60nm through early Tuesday, primarily due to E swell with weak wind chop mixed in.

Winds and seas increase during the day Tuesday as a front approaches from the northwest and low level winds strengthen ahead of a trough. SW winds peak around 20 kts Tuesday night, with gusts around 25 kts out to 20 nm and 30 kts gusts out to 60 nm. In response, seas increase to 4-5 ft with the building southerly wind wave, also peaking Tuesday night. Scattered storms will move offshore late Tuesday and Tuesday night, particularly off the Cape Fear coast. Southwest winds and seas slowly improve during the day Wednesday before the front moves offshore later in the day/Wed night, followed by benign marine conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.