textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs. Otherwise, no major changes to the forecast philosophy.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record high temperatures are possible due to significant warming ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. The cold frontal passage late Friday will bring isolated to scattered showers, but confidence remains low on thunder chances.

2) Increased fire danger possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Near record high temperatures are possible due to significant warming ahead of a strong cold front on Friday. The cold frontal passage late Friday will bring isolated to scattered showers, but confidence remains low on thunder chances.

A strong cold front will approach through the latter half of the week bringing significant warming to the region as highs reach well into the 80s away from the immediate coast. The seabreeze will moderate temperatures closer to the coast, bringing more uncertainty to the temperatures forecast based on when it will move through with the strong SW flow at the surface. The chances for tying/breaking any records have increased further for inland areas to ~70%, and are close to 20% at the coastal climate sites. Record highs for March 27 are as follows:

Florence, SC: 89 in 2021 Lumberton, NC: 87 in 1950 & 1949 Wilmington, NC: 87 in 2020 North Myrtle Beach, SC: 80 in 1944

The timing and rainfall expectations for the front haven't changed much from the previous forecast. Timing remains roughly late Friday evening into Friday night with a small potential for a stray thunderstorm should instability hold on inland around sunset.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased fire danger possible on Saturday.

Low relative humidity and breezy north winds could bring increased fire danger on Saturday. This will also depend on rainfall amounts Friday night, but at this point only light amounts are expected with the front moving through rather quickly.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR is expected to prevail through the period. Confidence remains relatively low regarding MVFR vis restrictions tonight as light or calm winds for much of the night should support at least some mist development. However, a steady stream of high clouds will continue to pass overhead for the next several hours before ending, limited cooling during the first half of the night. In addition, hi-res guidance tools suggest a deck of clouds between 4-6kft should develop during the latter half of the night, stopping or even reversing cooling depending on their coverage. As a result, the timing and persistence of any mist carries low confidence, but with dew points having rebounded considerably due to the onshore flow, at least patchy mist should affect the coastal terminals, especially in places where breaks in the clouds can permit a period of cooling. What may end up occurring are periods of mist during breaks in the clouds followed by periods of clearing due to clouds moving overhead. Thus, the previous FM groups were converted to TEMPO groups to account for this expectation. The inland terminals should end up seeing enough cloudiness to keep any mist at bay, but transient MVFR mist cannot be ruled out at times. Ultimately, any mist should dissipate by mid-morning as clouds thin and south to southwest winds take over.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions should prevail through Friday with a low chance of fog Friday morning. The next cold front should reach the area Friday night accompanied by a substantial wind shift and possible thunderstorms.

MARINE

Through Thursday... High pressure centered north of the area will progress eastward through the period. Winds will abate this evening and veer in direction due to the movement of the high. Seas will abate, with the wind wave dropping off more quickly than the swells, of which there are two according to spectral plots.

Thursday Night through Monday... S/SW flow continues Thursday night and Friday with a slow uptick in speeds as a cold front approaches from the north. Winds will turn sharply to the north Friday night into Saturday behind the front, with at least SCA conditions a guarantee and a 50-60% chance for gale gusts. Slowly improving marine conditions then for the remainder of the weekend into early next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.