textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Moderate rip risk in effect for Pender and New Hanover County Beaches Tuesday.

Aviation discussion updated with the 00Z Tafs Issuance.

Today's severe weather threat has been moved well to our south.

KEY MESSAGES

-1)Minor drought releif today and tomorrow.

-2)Rain chances decrease and the heat returns thereafter.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor drought relief today and tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Weakly cyclonic mid level flow to our west will enhance shower and storm coverage this afternoon as well as Tuesday's. In addition to the mid level forcing there are also outflow and differential heating boundaries across the area making timing and favored locations tricky.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances decrease by late Tue and the heat slowly returns thereafter and into next weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... From Wednesday through Friday mid level ridge pokes back into the area from the NW. This will lead to a warmup but not like last week where the ridge and max heat was closer to being overhead. At this point it looks like we will get back into the Heat Advisory realm rather than Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Unfortunately the capping effect of the ridging will keep rain chances to minimal/none. KEY MESSAGE 3...

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Outflow boundary interaction will help keep convection going thru generally midnight given the moisture laden atm with PWs around 2.25 inches. Will cary Tempo and Prob30 groups to identify. Latest GFSLamp guidance indicates another overnight into daytime Tue morning hrs with MVFR/IFR stratus, with the best and consistent coverage across LBT/FLO and to a lesser degree at the coastal terminals, not to say that they won't expereince any. Convective activity to increase again by midday Tue and persist well into the evening hrs, with Prob30 groups identified. Later updates may need to change to Tempo groups or possibly go prevailing. Main emphasis with this convection will be the slow movement and backfiring leading to training and more copious amounts of rainfall. Winds generally ESE becoming NE AOB 5 kt tonight and NE becoming E 5 to 10 kt during Tue.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for periodic flight restrictions Tue evening. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wed through Sat.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday... Rather unusual warm season onshore flow in the near term with a frontal boundary stalled south of the area. Wind speeds will be light and so the wind waves diminutive but there is a rather long easterly fetch into the region for a swell component. Changes take shape gradually late Wednesday as a Piedmont Trough develops and becomes the main wind-maker leading to a more typical SW flow locally. Seas won't really build much but the swell should wane as the long easterly fetch gets interrupted.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.