textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoPs have been increased through late evening for the large cluster of thunderstorms diving quickly southward. Despite lack of significant bulk shear, steep lapse rates and some dry air aloft have enabled the storms to efficiently produce strong, gusty winds. HRRR and other guidance indicates the storms should remain strong only through 9-10 pm before rapidly diminishing in strength.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Lower rain chances for the weekend.

2) A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Lower rain chances for the weekend.

An area of showers and thunderstorms should move across the area this evening associated with a front/trough. The northeast flow in the wake of the front lingers well into Sunday thus now limiting rain chances with lower instability. The best chances reside along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front brings an unsettled Tuesday followed by more seasonable temperatures.

Mostly dry conditions will be in place Monday with a weak pressure pattern both aloft and at the surface. A stronger front pushes south Tuesday with increased pops followed by dry high pressure for the remainder of the week. Temperatures...slightly above normal early will trend downward in time.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A large wave of thunderstorms containing strong, gusty winds is moving southbound across the eastern Carolinas. The most significant impacts are expected at KILM now through 03z with IFR visibility in heavy rainfall and gusts to 25 knots. Other airports including KFLO and KCRE will likely see thunderstorms as well, with MVFR visibility expected at times. KMYR has a somewhat lower potential for impacts but even here MVFR vis and some gusty winds are possible. All local impacts should end by 04z with VFR conditions expected.

Surface winds will become NE late tonight as a cold front slips south into the area. KLBT and KILM have a moderate to high potential for IFR ceilings to develop around daybreak behind the front. The front will weaken during the day Saturday but may help focus isolated to scattered showers or perhaps thunderstorms during the afternoon.

Extended Outlook...There is a moderate potential for MVFR/IFR Saturday due to scattered thunderstorms, decreasing slightly on Sunday. Morning ground fog possible each morning through Monday.

MARINE

The light winds with a southerly component will continue through this evening. In the wake of a cluster of storms and frontal passage winds will be from the NE and linger into Sunday. This is a change from the previous thinking where the front would make a quick retreat north. For Monday and Tuesday winds will be almost light and variable with if anything a southeast flow seemingly driven by the sea breeze. Finally still looking at a stronger NE flow by the middle part of next week with a stronger frontal passage. Significant seas stay muted outside of convection in a 2-3 foot range increasing late with the wind speed increase.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.