textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record highs possible Friday, especially inland.

2) Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

3) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday into Sunday.

4) Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record highs possible Friday, especially inland.

Southwesterly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will lead to good WAA. Forecast soundings show dry adiabatic lapse rates through a good 5kft where the air will still be about 12C. This easily supports temperatures in the low 80s, the late March sun then adding at least 5 degrees more of surface heating for mid to upper 80s area-wide save for the beaches.

March 27 Record Highs: Florence, SC: 89 in 2021 Lumberton, NC: 87 in 1950 & 1949 Wilmington, NC: 87 in 2020 North Myrtle Beach, SC: 80 in 1944

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

Dry/breezy conditions Saturday will likely bring an enhanced fire danger, especially given the expectation of little rainfall with the cold frontal passage Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday into Sunday.

See the Marine section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

Surface high pressure will build in from the north Saturday night leading to fairly light winds and with minimal sky cover, especially inland, conditions should be pretty good for some radiational cooling. Thus, we have leaned toward the cooler model guidance, especially inland where mid 30s are most likely with even a low risk of freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots. The extent of the dry air also is a bit in question and thus there is low confidence in a significant/widespread frost. Our greatest confidence at this time is for patchy frost over Pender County.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR to dominate this period. Only fly in the ointment will be the possibility of sea fog low stratus moving onshore and affecting CRE/MYR during daylight Fri as dewpoints push into the 60s and winds back just enough to a S-SSW direction midday thru early evening. Synoptically, sfc high off the SE States coast to push further offshore during Friday. Looking at SW winds becoming WSW inland terminals early Fri as the approaching cold front dropping from the north becomes a player. Tightened sfc pg to yield 10-20 g25+ kt as a LLJ 30-40 kt maintains overhead. As mentioned earlier, winds may back at the coastal terminals due to an active but pinned sea breeze especially across SC Coast but likely progress inland across NC Coast, reaching ILM mid to late aftn.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR except possibility of sea fog impacting coastal terminals early Fri evening. The next cold front should drop across the area Fri night accompanied by a substantial wind shift and flight restrictions from lowered CIGs and scattered showers with a possible thunderstorm. VFR returns by Sat daytime morning and will persist thru Tue.

MARINE

Through Friday... Winds remain southwesterly between offshore high pressure and a front approaching from the west. The approach of the boundary will ramp up wind speeds as Friday progresses (headlines being handled by the extended forecaster, who's discussion follows) and also be raising dewpoints just above SSTs allowing for at least partial coverage/development of sea fog. Guidance isn't hitting the drop in visibility too hard so while fog remains in the forecast a DFA is not anticipated.

Friday night through Tuesday... A Gale Watch is now in effect from late Friday night through Saturday mid aftn due to 50-60% confidence in frequent gusts to 34 kt in the CAA northerly surge following a sharp cold fropa. Lingering SCA conditions may linger into Sunday, before marine conditions greatly improve for early to mid next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.