textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory expanded, now all waters through 00 Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and possibly Monday and Tuesday.

2) A mid to late week front will bring good rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and possibly Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Although there is no mid level ridge in place (the culprit for most of the month) our 850mb temps hovering around 20C will keep Advisory-worthy heat locked in through Sunday. Confidence is a bit lower thereafter as cloudiness associated with convection could temper the heat in places but advisories do seem possible for at least part of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A mid to late week front will bring good rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large upper low develops north of NY on Wednesday in a pattern that looks less July-ish. This will push a bona fide front into and eventually through the region. With all of the heat and humidity in place ahead of the front's arrival the stage should be set for fairly widespread convection Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday as well should the boundary linger. WPC even has NC zones in a Slight for excessive rainfall, hopefully leading to some drought relief.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail, especially outside of any convection that develops this afternoon/early evening. VCTS possible initially at KMYR/KCRE along a resultant seabreeze. Late this afternoon and early evening could be a few storms in the vicinity of KLBT?KFLO. SW- Sly winds are expected to be gusty at times, especially the coastal terminals this afternoon and early evening. Any storms will gradually dissipate with the loss of heating, with additional storms expected by Sunday afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected mainly across North Carolina between late Sunday afternoon and Monday night with brief periods of MVFR-IFR restrictions possible. Chances for these restrictions are lower in SC due to anticipated lesser storm coverage. Forecast storm chances decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving a low risk for transient MVFR-IFR restrictions in convection. There is a potential for an uptick in convection again on Thursday with some restrictions possible.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... The gradient tightens in the very near term between the Bermuda High and a strengthening Piedmont trough. SCA now in effect for all waters through 00Z Monday. Confidence a little lower thereafter as the trough may weaken, but winds could stay close to advisory thresholds for an extended period of time. An even larger surge in winds/seas is slated for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front. And although not expressly depicted in our forecasts just yet but seas larger than 6 ft appear possible.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.