textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated below for 0z TAF cycle. High rip current risk in effect for New Hanover county beaches Wednesday, particularly for beaches on the southern end of the county. Strong longshore current forecasted for New Hanover and Georgetown counties.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unseasonably Cool Air Brings Well Below Temperatures Through Wednesday Night.

- 2) Warming Trend Kicks Off Thursday Through the Weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Warming Trend Kicks Off Thursday Through the Weekend.

Air mass modification begins earnestly Thursday, with temperatures getting a little warmer each day through the weekend. Areas along and west of I-95 look to see the lower 90s again by Friday, while east of I-95 hovers in the mid-to-upper 80s. Dewpoints in the 60s return late Friday into Saturday, but buoyancy will be very limited. Forecast looks quite dry through the weekend, with perhaps only some quite isolated seabreeze showers and storms Sunday afternoon.

More appreciable rain chances return early next week with the next frontal system.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR. Mid level clouds currently across northeast SC will clear out over the next few hours followed by clear skies. Few to scattered mid-level clouds will return Wednesday afternoon. Light north-northeast winds overnight will increase to sustained around 10 kts and gusts around 15 kts Wed afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Saturday, with only very low confidence in fog possible early Friday morning.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Fresh to strong breeze out of the NE to NNE will continue until at least midday Wednesday. Late Wednesday afternoon, gradient winds finally start to loosen starts a moderate to fresh breeze. Seas at 3- 6 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 6-10 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm.

Wednesday Night through Saturday...Small Craft Advisory finally expires at 2 AM EDT Thursday as winds and seas continue to improve. Gentle to moderate breeze briefly backs to the north Thursday, developing more of an onshore component through the weekend. After the advisory concludes, seas at 2-5 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm gradually come down to 1-3 ft by Friday and Saturday. Offshore waters out 60 nm linger at 4-7 ft Thursday, but improve considerably to 3-4 ft Friday and Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.