textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Warm and breezy conditions are expected today. A cold front will move through the region tonight bringing cooler temperatures on Monday. Return flow brings warmer temperatures through the rest of next week, with a small chance for showers next weekend.

UPDATE

No significant changes with the 6 AM EST update. Aviation section has been updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Warm, dry, and breezy today ahead of a cold front. A compressed gradient between high pressure to our south and low pressure over the northeastern US will promote boundary layer mixing this afternoon. Peak gusts this afternoon around 25-30 mph are expected prior to the arrival of a cold front. Warm air advection will push afternoon highs into the upper 70s to near 80s near the coast. Mostly clear skies expected today with such dry air in place. A few passing mid level clouds will announce the arrival of a front this evening.

Dry air in place across the region should effectively mix minimum RHs into the 30%s and 40%s this afternoon. Dry air advection during the late afternoon will continue to push min RH into the 20s near the I-95 corridor. The late arrival of the front, near sunset, may keep areas near the coast from mixing to such extremely low RHs. However, gusts during the afternoon, low minimum RHs, and dry fuels across southeastern NC have prompted the issuance of an SPS for Increased Fire Danger through 6 PM.

Winds weaken behind the front tonight. Clear skies, weak cold air advection, and a dry air mass will help temperatures cool quite nicely after a warm day. Expect temperatures in the lower 40s across the region on Monday morning.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Highly amplified pattern will continue across the Conus through the period remaining moisture challenged for our area. Surface high pressure will build across the area through Tuesday with no pops. Highs will be in the lower to middle 60s Monday and perhaps reach 70 once again Tuesday. Lows will be in the middle 30s Tuesday and somewhat warmer Wednesday as warm air advection is in place with middle to upper 40s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Little to no changes to the extended forecast this morning as mid level ridging remains the main feature building n from mid to late week. A system emanating from the west coast troughing makes a run east toward the area by the weekend and lower pops remain in place. The ridge is formidable however and confidence is on the lower side. Overall temperatures are on the warmer side of climatology perhaps cooling down very late.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions continue this morning. The main impact will continue to be LLWS through sunrise. VFR albeit a bit breezy with afternoon gusts up to 30 knots. A cold front arrives later in the day and should only be accompanied by high-base mid level clouds at worst. Winds turn northwesterly and weaken behind the front.

Extended Outlook... VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Small Craft Advisory conditions will be ongoing early this morning and through most of Sunday. High pressure to our south and low pressure over the northeastern US will compress the pressure gradient over our region in advance of a cold front. Gusts peaking around 30 knots are expected this morning. The cold front will push offshore this evening. Winds turning northwesterly will then weaken through the evening. SCA conditions should come to an end after sunset as wind-driven 5-7 foot seas fall below 6 feet this evening. Winds gradually weaken overnight and become light and variable for Monday.

Monday through Friday... Winds will maintain a northerly component early in the period but overall a return flow and south to southwest winds will more prevalent. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots early on but trend down a little in time. Significant seas will be 2-4 feet but more toward the lower end of the range with the southwest flow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.