textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast high temperatures today have been increased by 1-2 degrees. Updated 06Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures are expected again today, approaching near record values again at Florence.

2) A cold front arriving late this afternoon may be accompanied by scattered thunderstorms.

3) Below normal temperatures Tuesday will see significant warming ahead of a cold front into Friday. Friday's highs could reach near records, particularly for our inland areas, but otherwise no significant impacts expected.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Below normal temperatures Tuesday will see significant warming ahead of a cold front into Friday. Friday's highs could reach near records, particularly for our inland areas, but otherwise no significant impacts expected.

Colder high pressure will build overhead behind the cold front, with temperatures dropping by ~15 degrees for Tuesday compared to Monday. Coldest temperatures will be Tuesday night, with lows mainly in the lower 40s. Little to no radiational cooling is expected due to cloud cover and increasing chance of showers as the high shifts offshore into Wednesday, putting us in its' return flow with moderating temperatures. SW flow will then be further enhanced by an approaching cold front into Friday, highs once again in the 80s. For now, the front is expected to pass through towards the end of the day after peak heating, meaning little to no impacts from rain/clouds to inhibit warming. Should this pattern hold, the temperature forecast for Friday should increase, and highs could start to near records. The current forecast has highs in the lower to mid 80s, ~2-5 degrees off records at all sites.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions, along with breezy southwest to west winds, will continue up through around 20z this afternoon. A cold front advancing southward will reach the area after 20z, possibly accompanied by a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. The best chance of impacts at airports should be near the coast where PROB30 groups at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR show MVFR conditions possible in convection through 00z Tuesday. Wind directions should turn northerly behind the front this evening with good likelihood of VFR conditions beneath mid level clouds.

Extended Forecast...There is a low chance of ground fog Thursday morning, otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through Friday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Moderate southwest winds will continue up until a cold front arrives at the coast late this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms could accompany the front with gusty winds possible in the strongest storms. Behind the front winds should shift north, then northeasterly tonight with speeds increasing to near 25 knots. A Small Craft Advisory is already in effect for these winds which could gust up to 30 knots overnight along with seas building to 5-6 feet.

Tuesday through Saturday...Strong NE winds with waves 4-6 ft will continue through the majority of Tuesday before high pressure builds overhead late, bringing improving conditions. Light winds will become SW on Thursday ahead of a cold front, with Small Craft Advisory conditions possible late Friday through Saturday due to strong SW winds and seas +6 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.