textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Heat Advisory has been issued for the entire area through today into the evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Hot with largely rain-free conditions into the weekend.

Ridging will build just north of the area with a return to above normal temperatures through the end of the week. A Heat Advisory is out for our entire area today with near 110 heat indices possible, mainly for our coastal areas right when the sea breeze gets going. We should mix out again behind the initial moisture push from the sea breeze with heat indices largely 107-109. Smoke aloft could have some impact on these conditions as well (lower temperatures, less mixing, higher dewpoints) along with any showers/storms that pop up along the sea breeze. All this added uncertainty made the Heat Advisory the way to go. By the weekend, moisture should have recovered enough to support typical afternoon showers/storms with isolated to scattered coverage, but these aren't anticipated to help to abate the heat threat into next week. There are signals that low pressure could form somewhere in the SE U.S. which could impact the rainfall forecast headed into next week but confidence on location and exact impacts is low.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

There is high confidence VFR conditions will continue through the morning hours. Confidence comes down slightly this afternoon as there may be an isolated convective shower or thunderstorm that develops along the seabreeze front. Probability is too low for inclusion in the TAFs at this time. Seabreeze winds will increase to 12-15 knots for the coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and KMYR this afternoon.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will persist into the weekend with predominantly VFR conditions expected. Isolated showers and thunderstorms Saturday should increase in coverage substantially Sunday into Monday as a tropical disturbance moves near the area. Expect brief flight restrictions from this activity.

MARINE

Friday through Tuesday... W/SW winds through the period. Small Craft Advisory gusts may be possible for the weekend as the PG increases, and the wind wave will become more dominant. Seas largely 2-3 ft increasing to 4-5 ft Saturday night into Sunday with some 6 footers possible 20+ nmi out. Conditions may improve slightly into Monday but there's some uncertainty based the potential for low pressure development in the SE U.S. late this weekend into next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.