textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes. Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will slowly move offshore bringing a warming trend with temperatures quite a bit above normal much of the week. Seems to be decent agreement on a more amplified weather pattern later in the week, with a few upper disturbances likely bringing increasing moisture and rain chances. Model guidance has converged on a window between Friday morning and Saturday morning. Some timing changes are still possible with the influence of a cutoff low over the northeastern US. Ensemble guidance suggests rainfall totals have decreased with the 75th percentile around a third of an inch. Ensemble means are just below a quarter of an inch. If showers develop across the region during peak heating on Friday, some convective elements could produce isolated higher totals in thunderstorms.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR (some CIGs around 4k feet AGL early this morning) prevailing through the TAF period with a low chance BR at LBT early this morning. Steady northeast winds continue with some gustiness possible around midday to early afternoon as winds turn more easterly.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR. Low to moderate risk for restrictions due to low clouds/rain increases mid week and continues into early Saturday.

MARINE

High pressure centered northeast of the area will slowly shift offshore ahead of a weak storm system impacting the area mid to late week. Conditions will improve into mid week and should remain under Small Craft Advisory levels through the rest of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.