textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High temperatures this weekend into early week have been lowered slightly to the mid/upr 80s inland.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

Mainly dry conditions expected through early next week. A rather weak coastal trough and a cold front won't be able to muster much precip through tonight. Dry W/NW flow will then be in place Thursday and Friday with temps near to slightly below normal. The only minor concern Thu/Fri will be low relative humidities dipping to around 25-30% each afternoon, but fortunately winds shouldn't be high enough to warrant an appreciable fire danger. A warming trend then ensues into the weekend through early next week with rising upper-level heights along the eastern seaboard and forecast high temps running above normal (mid to upr 80s) across inland areas. Fortunately, moisture levels shouldn't be high enough to support max heat indices much higher than air temps.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. A deepening low pressure system offshore of SC Lowcountry has allowed for more cloud cover across the area, resulting in widespread ceilings that vary between 4000-5000 ft up to 15,000 ft. A few showers have popped up just offshore of the Grand Strand, but these are not expected to impact KCRE or KMYR. A light southwesterly breeze at 5-8 kts will persist over KFLO and KLBT, while the southeasterly seabreeze will take over for the coastal terminals through this evening.

A weak cold front will move through the area tonight, resulting in mostly cloud cover, and perhaps only a couple of sprinkles at best for KILM and KLBT (didn't even put in VCSH). Some of the forecast guidance continues to show possibility of MVFR ceilings sometime in the 09-13Z timeframe for KILM and KLBT as the front moves through. Not confident enough yet to throw this in the TAF, but the chance remains, and will be evaluated again at the 00Z TAF issuance. SKC will result after the front moves through, along with breezy northwesterly winds that may gust up to 18-20 kts after 15Z Thursday.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through Sunday. Perhaps there could be some patchy fog heading towards sunrise Saturday and Sunday mornings, but confidence on that idea is quite low.

MARINE

Through Thursday... A moderate breeze out of the NE to ENE will continue into this evening ahead of a weak cold front. Gradient winds loosen to a light to gentle breeze late this evening, as weak low pressure just offshore of SC Lowcountry will push further out into the Atlantic. These winds will quickly veer to the SSW as the front nears. Front starts pushing through the coastal waters a few hours before sunrise Thursday morning, where winds will veer to the west, increasing towards a moderate breeze again. Continued veering to the northwest will continue later in the morning after the front moves further east. Seas at 3-4 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm will come down to 2-3 ft by late Thursday afternoon, while 4-5 ft seas along the offshore waters out 60 nm will come down to 3-4 ft.

Thursday night through Monday... High confidence in conditions staying well shy of Small Craft Advisory levels as high pressure generally prevails resulting in weak pressure gradients. Significant wave heights look to stay 3-4 ft or less.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.