textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95.

2) Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures remain well above normal through Thursday, particularly for areas west of I-95.

Deep high pressure over the area with 850 mb temps of +16C to 18C (at or above the 90th percentile climatological values for this time of year) will sustain hot inland temperatures through Thursday. Coastal portions of the Carolinas should remain significantly cooler due to sustained south winds dragging air across nearshore water still near 70 degrees and the daily sea breeze.

Highs for Florence and Lumberton have been 90+ since May 17th, so a five day streak (assuming +90 degrees through Thursday) would eclipse this year's earlier streak of four days of 90 degree temps recorded from April 15-18 in both Florence and Lumberton. A cold front will approach the area Thursday night but doesn't look to move through before lifting north for the weekend. Increased cloud cover and scattered showers/storms will serve to lower temperatures Thursday onwards.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain chances should increase, especially inland, beginning Thursday as a front temporarily stalls in the Carolinas.

Dry weather will come to an end as a front shifts in from the north on Thursday and subsidence aloft weakens enough to permit low rain chances. Isolated pop-up convection will be possible on the sea breeze with higher coverage along the front Thursday night. This looks to be just north of our area as the front fails to drop into the CWA before lifting back northward for Friday, so have lowered rain chances Thursday from the NBM. The front will stall north of the area with best coverage of daily shower/storm chances along the inland-pusing sea breeze in the afternoons.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Isolated patches of MVFR/IFR fog/stratus will be possible right around the valid TAF time, but any restrictions will quickly come to an end. VFR today will continue well into the evening before MVFR/IFR fog potential increases late tonight. Boundary layer winds will decrease in the evening coincident with the arrival of some enhanced low level moisture. Not expected much fog development before 06Z but chances increase in the pre-dawn hours.

South to southwest winds today shift to southeast with the passage of the sea breeze. Sea breeze will enhance the southeast winds with gusts to 15 kt possible.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR visibility/ceilings possible each morning, generally in the 08z-12z timeframe. Potential for daytime restrictions Friday through Sunday due to convection.

MARINE

Through Tonight...South to southeast flow around 10 kt continues across the waters today and tonight. Enhancement along the coast due to the sea breeze will result in speeds 10-15 kt with some higher gusts, but zone of enhanced winds will be rather narrow. Seas continue in the 2-3 ft range, although the amount of 3 ft seas will be somewhat increased over previous days. The southeast swell remains the dominant wave and the only wave of significance.

Thursday through Monday... Predominantly south winds ~10 kts becoming more southeast ~15 kts in the afternoons with the sea breeze. Seas within 20nmi will be 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft beyond. The primary swell will be SE at 8-9 seconds. Shower/storm chances will be possible day to day starting Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.