textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

2) Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected late this week into early next week, likely near record levels inland.

Mid-upper high pressure centered over the Mid-South will gradually pivot northeastward through midweek and become anomalously strong (with 700mb, 500mb, and 200mb heights at or above the 99.5th percentile for this time of year) before weakening as it then settles over the Carolinas late this week. This should yield well above normal temperatures, especially inland where they could be near record levels. Given the placement of this upper high and deep- layer flow mainly between north and east, plenty of dry air and subsidence is anticipated across the local area, leading to virtually no chance for pop-up showers and storms to offer relief from the heat. Nevertheless, the dry air aloft mixing down each afternoon will help to lower dew points and keep heat index values very near the air temperatures, except around the sea breeze where ocean temperatures in the low-mid 80s will locally raise dew points and heat index values, even if temperatures fall slightly behind it. The specifics on when and where heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria (105-109F for 2+ hours) are hard to pin down as temperatures and dew points will continue to be refined in the coming days, but unfortunately, it appears the hottest period will coincide with the Independence Day holiday weekend.

Everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Very low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The dry air and subsidence mentioned above is expected to keep the prospects for any weak subtropical or tropical low off the coast very low (10%) and highly unlikely to affect the local area.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Once again a 1-2kft cig is streaming in from the north this morning. As with yesterday this moisture will mix out not long after sunrise, with VFR and light winds expected thereafter.

06Z Wed thru Sat...Mostly VFR w/ generally rain-free conditions as high pressure prevails. Low clouds/fog possible each late night/early morning.

MARINE

Tuesday through Saturday...High pressure will prevail, shifting from north of the area to east of the area. The worst conditions are expected today, mainly in the offshore 20-60 nm zones, as the pressure gradient will be strongest due to the closest proximity of offshore low pressure. However, winds/waves are not expected to reach headline levels through the end of the week.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels later this week and through the holiday weekend. Below are the records for July 3-5...

July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.