textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12Z TAF section.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1.... Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

Surface low pressure well offshore of the North Carolina coast is expected to meander but gradually shift northward through midweek, keeping a tight pressure gradient in place. This will lead to continued cool and dry air, gusty north winds, and hazardous marine conditions. See the marine discussion for more details. Hazardous surf and high waves are also a concern, particularly for the New Hanover County coast. Late in the week, the low is expected to be shoved away from the mid-Atlantic coast as another strong high pressure system builds in, bringing another period of gusty north winds late in the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

LLWS should mix out soon after TAF issuance time, thereafter VFR with clear skies and northerly winds. LLWS may return again tonight.

Extended Outlook... A nor'easter well offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds into midweek, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week due to abundant dry air.

MARINE

A nor'easter off the North Carolina coast will gradually meander northward through midweek, with winds and seas gradually decreasing through Wednesday. Latest observations indicate that gale force gusts have come to an end for offshore SC waters. Gusty winds up to 30 knots are expected to continue on Monday along with seas up to 12 feet. Buoy observations indicate that gales will continue in the offshore NC zones through this evening. In the coastal waters, Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated to linger into Tuesday morning across the SC coastal waters and gradually fade across the NC coastal waters on Wednesday as 6-ft seas ease away. As the nor'easter is shunted away from the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, another strong high pressure center is forecast to move in, tightening the pressure gradient again and bringing a renewed threat for hazardous marine conditions from late Friday into next weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ280.