textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry and seasonable conditions linger through Saturday.

- 2) Unsettled weather expected Sunday, and could last through the middle of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Unsettled weather expected Sunday, and could last through the middle of next week.

Pattern flip on the way Sunday. An upper low currently over parts of Iowa and Minnesota will deepen with an associated trough and move towards the Ohio Valley. This trough remains nearly stationary for 2- 3 days, allowing for plenty of rich SW flow aloft to usher in plenty of moisture. A tropical atmosphere returns, minus the tropical system. Precipitable water (PWAT) values rapidly kick up towards 2.25" by Sunday afternoon, well above normal for early August. Meanwhile, at the surface, an old frontal boundary currently well offshore will sneak back up towards the coastline, allowing for even moisture in the lower levels and some low-level lift.

Put all these pieces together, and you get a sustainable rain maker that appears to last through at least Tuesday. There are still questions on where the best rainfall amounts set up, which is dependent upon the exact location and layout of the trough aloft and to the west. Some areas may score with some relatively thin ribbons of moisture that could drop multiple inches of rain within a couple of hours.

The decent slug of rain that we recorded last week did improve the drought very slightly, but nearly half of the area (basically east of I-95) is still under an extreme to exceptional drought. We still have a long way to go for substantial drought relief.

Upper pattern weakens by Wednesday, with the upper low potentially becoming a cutoff low somewhere over the Ohio Valley. Rain chances still persist Wednesday, but it doesn't look as organized this time around.

Due to clouds and rain, highs linger in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows each night in the lower 70s.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR and dry through the 00Z TAF period. Winds should be either calm or light and variable through the overnight hours. Gradient winds pick up towards 8-12 kts out of the SE daytime Saturday, with some gusts up to 18-20 kts possible. Another cumulus deck should show up by 15-17Z.

Extended Forecast...VFR likely into Saturday night. At least transient MVFR to IFR restrictions become likely between Sunday and Tuesday as a slow-moving disturbance brings abundant moisture and scattered to widespread showers and storms back into the picture. This system could linger into Wednesday, but confidence is lower there.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Gentle breeze out of the SE will give way to a moderate breeze by Saturday ahead of the next weather system. Seas linger at 2-3 ft throughout this time. By Sunday, the pattern changes, aided by an old frontal boundary that surges northward back through the waters, and an upper level disturbance to the west. Plenty of rain and thunderstorms on the way Sunday through Tuesday. SSW winds take hold late Saturday night, holding all the way through Wednesday. Gradient winds tighten considerably Sunday and Monday, and advisory level winds and seas appear to be nearly certain. Winds come back down towards a moderate breeze Tuesday and Wednesday, while seas gradually improve towards 3-5 ft seas on Tuesday, 2-3 ft seas on Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.