textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will persist over the area early this week before pushing farther offshore. A significant warming trend will begin Tuesday. Rain chances return Friday into Saturday in association with the next cold front.

UPDATE

Cirrus clouds increasing from the west aren't tremendously thick, but will obscure the sky later this evening through about 2-3 AM before clearing develops again. Visible satellite earlier today showed a very persistent area of low clouds across southern and western South Carolina indicative of a humid boundary layer. Our forecast lows are well below current dewpoints across the Pee Dee region suggesting fog and low stratus may develop across this area late tonight. Fog remains our biggest forecast challenge: current GFS LAMP guidance has shifted the start of fog much closer to sunrise than earlier runs had indicated. We'll need to monitor model and observation trends for a possible Dense Fog Advisory late tonight into Monday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

Quiet near term period. A wave of cirrus will move overhead late tonight ahead of the high pushing in from the west. Lows tonight will be a bit tricky with the passing clouds as well as some WAA from the SW. I've tried to account for decent radiational cooling when the clouds shouldn't be predominant (for several hours after sunset and then a couple before sunrise). Relatively warmer temperatures will be in our far SW areas due to the WAA, but lows will largely be in the 30s. The high will move overhead Monday with light winds and mostly clear skies. Continued warming will bring highs above normal, in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Quiet and dry weather continues this period with the main story being increasing temperatures to above normal. Sfc high pressure will shift farther offshore with zonal flow aloft, and SW sfc winds will promote warmer days than we've seen as of late...high temps in the upr 60s to lwr 70s Tuesday and Wednesday.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Above normal temps will continue for the latter half of the week as upr-level ridging develops along the eastern seaboard. Eventually a sfc cold front will move in from the west in association with a mid-level shortwave trough, but agree with previous thinking that given the ridging in place, the fropa timing and well as PoPs may end up being slower/weaker in this scenario. Maintained no higher than 20% PoPs for Friday, increasing to 30-40% for Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions should continue through at least 06z, however there are indications that fog and low stratus will develop across portions of central and eastern South Carolina late tonight, impacting the Florence (KFLO) airport through Monday morning. GFS LAMP guidance has shifted a bit later with the onset of weather issues at KFLO, now highlighting the period 12-15z Monday for IFR to LIFR visibility and ceilings. Our forecast has shifted in that direction showing IFR developing after 10z.

VFR conditions and light winds should continue elsewhere with only a low potential for early morning ground fog at KLBT and KCRE.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR.

MARINE

Through Monday...High pressure will build overhead through the period. NE winds ~10 kts will become light and more easterly by Monday morning. Winds may become light and variable late Monday as the high moves overhead, winds turning back to out of the southwest. Seas 1-3 ft.

Monday Night through Friday...Sub-SCA conditions will continue for the duration of the work week with sfc high pressure sliding farther offshore, leaving a fairly weak pressure gradient in its wake over the local waters. Sea state will mainly be characterized by wind waves, but a weak easterly 14-15 second swell could move in midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.