textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temps thru late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

2) Much-needed rainfall late week into early next week

3) Well below normal temps starting Sun night

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Well above normal temps thru late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

Anomolously warm low to mid-levels will prevail through the end of the week ahead of a cold front. This will translate to well above normal temperatures with record highs possible Fri, especially inland away from the chilly Atlantic (see Climate section below for the records). Although low-level thicknesses suggest highs warmer than currently forecast, there is only moderate confidence in the temperature forecast due to lingering uncertainty regarding the influence of clouds/rain as well as the sea breeze/sea fog near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Much-needed rainfall late week into early next week

A frontal system will move through the area this weekend bringing some much-needed rainfall and even a slight chance of thunderstorms. Some areas could pick up over an inch of rainfall, especially in SC and across coastal NC. However, significant flooding or severe storms are not expected at this time.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Well below normal temps starting Sun night

A much colder air mass will build in behind a departing storm system early next week bringing temperatures down well below normal. Highs Mon/Tue will generally be near 50 with lows generally around 30. Mon night should be coldest night with wind chills near 20 degrees.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Gusty SW to SSW winds will continue through this afternoon and decrease late as daytime heating abates. Multi-layered clouds and continued winds will slow cooling into the first half of tonight, but eventually winds should lighten up to around 3 kts late in the night. Although broken mid-level and high clouds will likely prevent widespread fog, patchy mist or fog may develop as elevated dew points over chilly ground encourages fog formation. Confidence is low with respect to the timing and magnitude of any fog, although KFLO and KCRE have received TEMPO groups acknowledging last night's dense fog at these locations with similar winds and dew points expected tonight, although cloud cover should be thicker. Any fog or mist should dissipate by 13Z as SW winds pick up, with some gusty winds expected to start mixing down by noon.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through late week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning. Increased chance of flight restrictions this weekend.

MARINE

Through Thursday... Steady southwest winds will continue through the period as offshore high pressure maintains control ahead of an approaching cold front. Speeds around 15-18 kts today will relax to around 10 kts overnight, then pick up to around 15 kts tomorrow afternoon. Breezy conditions today will lead to seas rising to around 3-5 ft by this evening, then subside overnight to around 2-4 ft, which will remain in place through Thursday. The primary wave group will be southerly wind waves with a weaker ENE swell of 1-2 ft every 11-12 sec persisting through the period.

Thursday night through Sunday night...No big changes to the previous forecast. Southerly winds will prevail into late week with high pressure centered to the E-SE. A storm system this weekend will lead to varying wind directions. There is a low to moderate risk for marginal SCA conditions Fri ahead of an approaching cold front, with some uncertainty regarding how much the cool water will limit the winds, with a better chance of more solid SCA conditions starting late Sun after the cold frontal passage. Sea fog is also a risk into early Sun as a warm/moist air mass remains in place prior to the cold frontal passage Sun,although confidence remains low given the enhanced winds much of the time.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.