textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues into this evening before gradual clearing occurs on Saturday.

2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through late Tuesday for local coastal waters.

3) Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, next Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Rain continues into this evening before gradual clearing occurs on Saturday.

Showers continue to develop along a slow-moving frontal boundary today. Heavier showers will come to an end over the next few hours with more scattered coverage of light showers expected into the evening period. The front will finally push south of the area tonight. Weak low pressure riding the boundary will sink far enough south to bring an end to rain chances by early Saturday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through late Tuesday for local coastal waters.

Wedge of high pressure inland will lead to increased northeast winds over the local waters late Sunday night through Monday night. In turn, seas build to 5-7 feet for Monday through Tuesday associated with the ENE swell. 6 foot seas may linger for the southeast NC coastal waters into Tuesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, next Thursday and Friday.

Decent warm air advection around offshore ridge will lead to well above normal temperatures, around 15-20 degrees above climo, for the end of next week, along with relatively high dewpoints for this time of year. This could aid in some surface based instability developing, particularly inland, which may produce widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms. Mid-level offshore ridge edging westward could lead to subsidence for our area, which would limit shower/thunderstorm chances.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A nearly stationary cold front near the Carolina coast will slowly slide southward and eastward tonight. Low pressure developing along it off the NC Coast will intensify as it accelerates northeastward, sweeping the attendant cold front well away from the NC/SC Coast Sat. Threat for isolated showers or patchy drizzle tonight, mainly near the coast. But overall, will observe IFR/LIFR conditions from low ceilings tonight that will improve to MVFR midday Sat...and VFR from west to east during Sat afternoon. The other concern tonight will be areas of MVFR fog that will worsen toward/around sunrise to IFR fog, possibly becoming dense across local terminals.

Extended Forecast...VFR to dominate Sat evening followed by potential for flight restrictions due to fog early Sun morning. VFR dominates Sun with flight restrictions possible Sun night into Mon due to a CFP. VFR returns Tue into Wed.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Northeast flow will increase behind a cold front through Saturday. Low pressure developing offshore will keep the pressure gradient compressed and seas around 2-3 feet. Seas increase to around 3 feet tonight and into early Saturday morning as the low rushes off to the north and east. Winds weaken during the latter half of the day on Saturday as high pressure settles overhead.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Benign marine conditions Saturday night and Sunday with winds less than 10 kts and seas around 2 ft, combination of SE swell and NE swell. Hazardous marine conditions develop late Sunday night and continue through Tuesday as wedge of high pressure builds inland and northeasterly winds and seas increase. NE winds peak during the day Monday, sustained around 20 kts and gusts around 25 kts, with seas 5-7 ft Monday through early Tuesday. Winds turn onshore late Tuesday. 6 foot seas may linger for southeast NC waters late Tuesday, before seas lower to 3-4 ft for all local waters for Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.