textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Rain and drizzle will return today followed by dry weather for much of the rest of the week. Chilly temperatures tonight into Tuesday will rebound toward normal on Wednesday but may cool off a bit on Thursday as a weak cold front moves through. After bouncing back up on Friday, another shot of cold weather should arrive next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Moisture overrunning cool high pressure ahead of a shortwave will lead to PWATs 0.5-1" across the area this morning, with 1" being closer to the coast. The ridging high pressure (as well as rain and clouds) will lead to cooler temperature so have mixed in some lower guidance for highs today ending up a couple degrees colder than the NBM across the board. A shortwave will move through this afternoon with light rain possible across the area. Into tonight we'll see sub- freezing air trying to catch up to the moisture that's being pushed offshore by building dry high pressure from the SW and the retreating offshore front with low pressure along it. By the time inland reaches sub-freezing the moisture is leaving the SE NC coast, so we shouldn't see any wintry precip with this setup.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry high pressure builds down over the Carolinas on Tues. After a chilly start, temps will only rebound into the 40s. Northerly winds will diminish through the day with another cold night Tues night as temps drop off under clear skies and calm winds. The center of the high shifts off the coast with a southerly return flow setting up into Wed. May see temps level off or even rise a bit as winds kick up a bit toward Wed morning. Warming will continue through Wed in increasing SW flow with highs closer to 60 and overnight lows a good 10 degrees warmer than previous nights.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Shortwave digs down pushing a weak cold front through early Thurs but looks like it will come through mainly dry with mid to upper clouds only, but there will be a wind shift to the NW and weak CAA, enough to keep temps a few degrees cooler on Thurs and Thurs night. Temps will rebound again on Fri before a cool down for the weekend as another dry front moves through and strong high pressure builds down from the upper midwest.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

A mix of restrictions expected through the period. For now it's looking like inland terminals will be battling IFR fog/CIGs. Coastal sites are seeing a stream of clouds off the water that looks to be holding major VSBY restrictions at bay but CIGs are still looking to drop to IFR from SW to NE. There is a low chance of a passing shower before dawn at the coastal sites but have opted to leave this out of the TAFs as they shouldn't be significant. Rain chances will then build across the area towards Monday morning with CIGs dropping to IFR at all sites and VSBYs most likely MVFR due to rain/mist through the day. Improving VSBYs expected with a surge of wind and the clearing of rain Monday evening though CIGs don't look to improve and fog may redevelop Monday night.

Extended Outlook...Improving conditions as dry sfc high pressure builds in.

MARINE

Through Tonight...The increased PG between and offshore front with embedded low pressure and high pressure pushing in inland will lead to increased NNE winds over the waters, particularly into this afternoon. Wind gusts ~30 kts and waves 4-6 ft will lead to a Small Craft Advisory through tonight before building high pressure improves marine conditions.

Tuesday through Friday...Small Craft Advisory conditions will come to an end early Tues with diminishing winds and seas through the day as high pressure settles over the waters. N-NW winds will back to the SW and increase Wed as the gradient tightens ahead of a cold front. Looks like Small Craft Advisory conditions should return late Wednesday into early Thursday in SW winds up to 25 kts and seas building to 5 to 7 ft. Winds will veer to the NW behind the front into Thurs diminishing to 10 to 15 kts. Winds and seas may increase again into the weekend as strong high pressure builds down behind another front

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ254-256.