textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory for the coastal waters near Cape Fear has been canceled. CORMP, NDBC, and NOS buoys and piers suggest 25 kt gusts have ended inside of 20 nm from shore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain tapering off by this evening with dry and cool weather arriving tonight into Sunday.

2) One final night of very minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River.

3) Above normal temperatures by mid-week ahead of another cold front, and rainfall chances return Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain tapering off by this evening with dry and cool weather arriving tonight into Sunday.

Rain will taper off from west to east during by late afternoon into evening as deepening low pressure offshore accelerates away from the area. Cooler and drier air will filter in behind it in a north to northwest flow tonight into Sunday. The axis of greatest pcp water along and just offshore with values up to 1.5 to 1.8 inches this aftn will shift eastward as low lifts off to the northeast with plenty of dry air in place by Sunday. Pcp water values will be down to .35 inches on Sunday with a huge drop in dewpoints also. Dewpoints in the mid 50s this aftn will be down to the mid 30s by Sun morning. Overnight lows will be down in the 40s most places, rising to near 70 Sun aftn.

KEY MESSAGE 2: One final night of very minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River.

Tide levels are expected to just reach advisory levels along the Lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington generally from 10 PM to 1 AM tonight. Tide predictions suggest this will be the final day of any coastal flooding as water levels should remain below thresholds with high tide late Sunday night onward.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Above normal temperatures by mid-week ahead of another cold front, and rainfall chances return Thursday.

Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore early to mid week with flow becoming out of the S/SW. A gradual warm up will ensue, with high temps Wednesday and Thursday returning to the 80s most inland areas away from the coast. As far as rain chances, ensemble data continues to point to likely PoPs across much of the area on Thursday as a strong cold front moves through the area supported by a 500 mb trough over the Eastern U.S., but there continues to be a fair amount of disagreement on exact rain amounts - likely dependent on the amount of organized convection that develops over the area. Given the drought, any rainfall would help some. Otherwise, a deep dry/westerly column suggests clearing by the end of the week with the high likelihood for below normal temperatures again.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Dry air on northerly winds is undercutting the clouds aloft and VFR conditions should develop by 04z even down at the coast. Until then, MVFR to patchy IFR low stratocumulus ceilings will affect the coastal airports KILM, KMYR, and KCRE. Just-issued TAFs show the anticipated timings specific to each airport.

The only other weather concern is the possible development of ground fog overnight. Surface wind speeds may diminish quickly enough to prevent dry air from displacing low level moisture completely. This potential is moderate at KFLO, and low elsewhere.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. A cold front on Thurs should produce possible sub-VFR ceilings and vsbys in showers and thunderstorms.

MARINE

Through Sunday... Waves of low pressure along lingering front offshore will maintain northerly winds across the waters. A very marginal SCA remains in effect for gusts to 25 kts through this evening over the NC waters out to 20 nm, while 25 to 30 kts should be observed in the 20 to 60 nmi zones. Seas should stay mainly 2 to 4 ft in the coastal waters out to 20 nm and 4 to 6 ft in the 20 to 60 nmi waters, driven by a combination of northerly wind waves and longer period northeasterly swells. High pressure will build in behind departing low into Sunday with NW flow 10 to 15 kts.

Sunday night through Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions this period with offshore sfc high pressure slowly pushing farther off the coast. Winds will average out of the SSW at 10-15 kt with 2-3 ft seas, a combo of 2-4 second SSW wind waves and 8-9 second ENE swells. Next high likelihood of marine headlines, due to both winds and seas, arrives early Thursday ahead of an approaching cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.