textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

Building ridge across the southwestern Atlantic will sneak into the Carolinas on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures are expected to return and weak subsidence following a shortwave will keep afternoon convection isolated to widely scattered. Warm temperatures on Wednesday are still only slightly above normal and increased humidity could push heat indices up to 105 for a brief period. The main concern would be areas of coastal SC prior to the developing sea breeze.

Ridging builds on Thursday and Friday. Westerly downslope flow will add to the warm temperatures. Highs should easily reach the upper 90s for a large portion of the area. This, combined with high humidity, will likely lead to additional heat advisories later this week. The center of the ridge will be suppressed to our south. Meanwhile, weak shortwave impulses will move through the Mid-Atlantic both Thursday and Friday. This should spark some isolated convection despite the drier air aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Shower/storm activity has come to an end near terminals tonight. The question for tonight will be low stratus formation as winds should limit fog formation. Have added scattered stratus to all but the Myrtles based on where rain fell today but come the 06Z issuance confidence should increase with restriction coverage/area. Another sea breeze expected Tuesday afternoon with scattered showers/storms possible much like today.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through late this week.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds increase today as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected with gusts up to 20 knots possible through this evening. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet overnight. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.