textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes have been made to forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC Lowcountry today back into northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina Sunday into Monday.

2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid level ridging remains the dominant feature across the area today. For today the Pee Dee region is favored once again for convection but coverage will be isolated. Worth noting is a couple of cells developed in SE NC yesterday as well so with such an unstable air mass in place it appears all areas at least have a minimal threat for convection. Height falls with an approaching front/trough/sea breeze increase chances across all areas Monday but timing is trending for later in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture remains limited in the prevailing northwest flow allowing heat index values to increase to possible headline criteria. This is predicated on a mostly dry forecast which still this time of year is low confidence especially several days in a row. Shorter daylight hours...starting to be noticeable now make it more difficult for excessive heat as does the ever present complication of dry air mixing down each day.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Early morning low stratus and fog affecting KFLO and KLBT should begin to lift around 13z, but it's possible MVFR ceilings in the 1000-2000 feet AGL range could linger through 15z. Along the coast there's a moderate potential for intermittent MVFR ceilings through 15-16z until the seabreeze arrives with cleaner south winds.

Models show a low potential for pop-up convection late this afternoon into early evening. A PROB30 group has been included at KFLO where the last few HRRR runs show storms in the vicinity, but isolated thunderstorms can't be completely ruled out elsewhere.

Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday. Coverage appears it may be lower on Wednesday and Thursday. Late night/early morning low stratus ceilings are possible each day, especially at KFLO and KLBT.

MARINE

Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear. The high should sink south next week, leading to winds veering more westerly and increasing in speed. We also should experience a larger number of showers and thunderstorms today and especially Monday. Not really seeing anything in the winds or seas that come close to any headlines.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.