textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Isolated strong thunderstorms later today will give way to several days of more seasonable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated strong thunderstorms later today will give way to several days of more seasonable temperatures.

A mid-level shortwave trough and cold front approach from the west today leading to increasing rain chances through the day with isolated thunderstorms. Given the fairly fast eastward movement of the forced line of precipitation, areas that do not see deep convection have fairly meager QPF potential. The severe risk is small but still hard to diagnose as instability will be tough to develop especially given the likely stream of showers/sprinkles streaming up ahead of the main line. RRFS still has a very plausible looking scenario where moderate convection enters the western part of the CWA that intensifies half way across the CWA, that then weakens considerably at the immediate coast. The RRFS only develops about 1000 J/Kg of CAPE but shows some mid-level dry air supporting the wind threat. Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80-90% over most of the area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected on average. The front pushes offshore tonight, followed by a long period of dry weather and near normal temperatures.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

To start out the 12Z TAF period there's the threat of low CIGs at inland terminals for at least a couple hours, lifting should showers move overhead. More scattered clouds will be at coastal terminals, near MVFR. Morning showers could bring brief VSBY restrictions. Into the afternoon a band of showers and isolated thunderstorms is expected to slide eastward, bringing transient MVFR to possibly IFR restrictions if a cell directly impacts a terminal, but these will be brief due to fast motion. Behind the band, prevailing VFR returns for the remainder of the period, likely ~22Z for inland terminals and ~00Z for coastal terminals.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to return as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

S winds of 10-15 kt will veer slightly to the SW later today and then moreso to the NW by this evening, and eventually N by Saturday following a cold fropa. Late in this veering will be about a one category increase in wind speed, with gusts up to ~20 kt. Any increase in wave height will be overshadowed by a shortening of wave period from a marine impact standpoint out to 20nm. The offshore/20-60 zones meanwhile should build into the 4-6 ft realm late Sat/Sat night. N to NW flow will last for the remainder of the period with a slow abating trend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.