textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High rip current risk currently in effect for New Hanover and Pender county beaches.

2) Deep tropical in place this week will keep rain chances elevated and maintain the potential for isolated flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High rip current risk currently in effect for New Hanover and Pender county beaches.

A high risk of rip currents is in effect for today for New Hanover and Pender county beaches due to 3-4 ft SSE swell leading to strong rip currents, with holiday crowds contributing to increased rescues by lifeguards. Moderate rip risk in effect for beaches south of Cape Fear. Rip risk is expected to lower to moderate for all local beaches Tuesday, with elevated rip risk in place for most of this week. The SSE swell remains strong enough for the next couple of days that strong rips will still be possible for east- and southeast-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Deep tropical in place this week will keep rain chances elevated and maintain the potential for isolated flooding.

Not much pattern change today through mid week with southerly low-level flow promoting moisture transport into the Carolinas and upr-level ridging staying offshore. Forcing will be provided by the daily sea breeze, sfc heating and convective outflows, and weak upr-level divergence. Tough to pinpoint exactly where and when it will rain each day, but the expectation is for a typical summertime pattern with higher PoPs inland during the day, while higher over the coast and offshore overnight.

Precipitable water (pwat) exceeds 2" for a bulk of the Mon-Wed time period and at times is among the highest values recorded at CHS/MHX those days. The combination of extreme pwat, deep warm cloud layer (13k ft+) and slow storm motion creates a setup perfect for significant rainfall and minor flooding. Multi-day rainfall totals in excess of 5" will be possible in any locations that experience multiple rounds of storm or training storms.

Slightly drier mid-level air works its way north by Thursday, however a sfc boundary in the vicinity will keep likely PoPs especially towards the coast. There continues to be model disagreement over how far south the front pushes, but regardless it should be close enough to keep elevated PoPs on Thursday. Better mid-level energy will keep chances of rain around Friday into the weekend, with higher rain chances over southern areas with sfc high pressure and drier air trying to advect in from the north.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Numerous showers with scattered thunderstorms will continue moving across the area, away from the coast, through sunset. Showers will dwindle overnight as an area of drier air moves across, though isolated light showers will be possible. Abundant low level moisture across central Carolinas will lead to low stratus by Tuesday morning, though it is uncertain how far east these low clouds will reach and if they will impact I-95 terminals (FLO and LBT). Current forecast has MVFR cigs around 1500 ft inland from 8z to 13z and VFR conditions at coastal terminals. Similar conditions tomorrow with morning showers, particularly near the coast, spreading inland throughout the day with afternoon thunderstorm chances.

Extended Forecast...Low stratus or fog will continue through much of this week with better chances at our inland terminals. Afternoon showers and storms will impact the terminals through much of this week. A sea breeze near the coast will keep most of this activity inland through Wednesday. Convective activity may reduce in coverage somewhat Wednesday and Thursday and shift preferentially toward the coastal airports KILM, KCRE, and KMYR.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...Bermuda high pressure remains dominant feature, with southerly winds and seas dominating the local waters. South winds 10-15 kts through Tuesday, with gusts around 20 kts in the 20- 60nm waters off from Surf City to Little River Inlet overnight into Tuesday morning. Seas 3-4 ft out to 20nm, and 4-6 ft from 20-60nm, with SSE 7 sec swell the primary component and a weakening 1-2 ft ENE swell mixed in. Scattered showers and thunderstorms forecasted over the waters tonight into early Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...Sub-SCA conditions likely to continue this period. Sfc high pressure remains locked in place offshore, with a frontal boundary dropping in from the north around Thursday/Thursday night. It is still unclear how far if at all the front drops through the area, but regardless winds should stay no higher than 10-20 kt, with seas below criteria as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...None. MARINE...None.