textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast for the afternoon forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Rain chances slowly on the rise as an old frontal boundary will begin to push inland. Latter half of the week will be a wet one.

KEY MESSAGE 1

A cold front that finally pushed across the past couple of days allowing for a couple of nice late summer days/periods is now on the move north again. This when combined with a gathering mid level trough in the Mississippi Valley will increase rain/convection chances through essentially the weekend. The best forcing and moisture seem to team up when SPC has a marginal risk over the area Friday. The system will be slow to move off to the southeast but some guidance is now advertising a brief clean cold passage early next week with a few days of drier conditions. If this were to take place heat headlines may wander back into the forecast as highs stubborningly want to return to the lower and middle 90s.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions reside across the area this afternoon however some convection is nearing the Grand Strand region. Overall as a much talked about cold front moves north again pops will increase and may see some organized activity along coastal areas early Thursday morning. Inland will be more hit and miss. Used PROB 30 groups to address the convection and some restrictions may accompany these groups although only briefly as relatively speaking the activity will be light.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning this week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will dot the area as well in a warm and humid airmass. The next cold front should move into the area Friday night or Saturday. Rain chances may come down a bit by Sunday, but confidence is shaky.

MARINE

Through Sunday...South to southeast winds will be in place throughout the forecast period as a slow moving front/mid level trough approaches from the west. There could be a somewhat clean frontal passage early next leading to a brief NE flow after after all the calendar is late August. Wind speeds will be 10-15 knots and there doesn't appear to be any threat of headlines through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.