textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory has been raised over the coastal waters from Cape Fear NC through South Santee River SC due as dense fog is evident from beach cameras and satellite imagery. This fog should tend to mix out during the midday to early afternoon as daytime heating helps to increase winds near the shore.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Intermittent sea fog will continue to impact the coastal waters and immediate coastline through Wednesday.

2)The warmth peaks Wednesday before a cold front arrives on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Intermittent sea fog will continue to impact the coastal waters and immediate coastline through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Persistent advection of warm, moist air over the waters will continue to produce intermittent sea fog, dense at times, through mid-week. Best chance will be overnight into midday. Sea fog will continue to impact the immediate coastline as well, especially during morning hours. Strong cold front early Thursday will finally bring an end to this extended stretch of on and off sea fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The warmth peaks Wednesday before a cold front arrives on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... As has been the case for several days now a summer-like Bermuda High pattern will keep temperatures well above normal through the mid week period. Wednesday gets a small prefrontal bolstering of the WAA and inland locations will take a run at record highs, listed below. The marine layer will keep coastal climate sites records safe as SSTs remain in the low 50s. A strong cold front arrives Thursday bringing several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Extrapolating the SPC outlooks it's easy to see that the front will bring a small but non-zero chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. This is not surprising given both the vigor of the boundary and the ample warmth and moisture in place ahead of it passage. The cooldown back to normal temperatures looks to be limited to Thursday night through Friday night before the post-frontal high moves offshore and we get back into return flow.

Inland record highs for March 11: FLO 86 set in 2015 LBT 87 from 1925

AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread fog will continue for the next couple of hours, possibly lifting to stratus by mid morning across the area. Restrictions are expected for all terminals, slightly longer at our Grand Strand terminals where sea fog may persist slightly longer into the late morning. By early afternoon, all terminals should return to VFR. VFR should persist through the afternoon and much of this evening. Lower dew points are expected tonight which should keep the threat of fog lower than previous nights, but sea fog may complicate the forecast along the Grand Strand.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period, but periods of fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions. Sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals at times during this week.&&

MARINE

Through Tonight... Showers and storms have kept most of the nearshore sea fog from redeveloping. However, as showers move farther offshore and light southerly flow returns this morning sea fog may redevelop prior to sunrise. A nearshore sea breeze may break up existing sea fog during the late morning and afternoon, but little change in dew points and light winds tonight could see it redevelop through early Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday... The Bermuda High continues to be the dominant weather-maker over both land and sea. For the marine environment this means more southwesterly flow generating a 2-3 ft wind with a southeasterly swell. Big changes come with a strong cold front Thursday that will sharply turn winds through W, NW, and eventually NE with sustained SCA speeds and gale- force gusts. Seas will also build to advisory levels. It's a quick shot though so headlines may come down as early as Thursday night in a very progressive surface pattern.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ087-096- 099. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ252- 254-256.