textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation 06Z TAF discussion.

The warmup (above normal) during the Wed thru Sat time period.

For the coastal waters during the Thu thru Fri time period, have placed patchy sea fog across all waters. This a starting point given the somewhat difficulty with models forecasting sea fog, especially this far out in time. Much will depend on wind directions, not so much speeds, and the potential for pcpn.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Seventy plus degree readings expected for highs Wed thru Fri and possibly into Sat. A few max temp records possible Fri. With SSW-SW winds, expect the immediate coast to experience 10+ degree cooler readings compared to the inland locations.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Seventy plus degree readings expected for highs Wed thru Fri and possibly into Sat. A few max temp records possible Fri. With SSW-SW winds, expect the immediate coast to experience 10+ degree cooler readings compared to the inland locations.

Ridging aloft extending from the Gulf across the SE States will amplify enough across the area to keep any cold fronts, dropping down from the NW thru N, from pushing to or across Southeast NC and Northeast SC during the 3 day period. With the sfc high off the coast during the 3 day period, mild/warm return SSW-SW flow will commence by Wed and persist into Sat. Will likely observe various cloud decks and isolated showers(Fri) in the vicinity especially with a stalled front just to our north. Temps aloft, for example, warm to above 10+ degrees C at 8H by Fri as mentioned by the previous full fcst package update. And this may lead to possible high temps at the sfc challenging a few records. Its only by Sat that the ridging breaks down aloft allowing a sfc cold frontal passage late aided by an expanding upper trof across the western U.S. that progresses to the east while hooking up with a northern stream upper trof. Friday's current record high at Lumberton is 80 degrees from 2018, Wilmington is 81 from 1991, and at Florence is 83 from 2014. Look for the immediate coast to observe SSW-SW winds from off the Atlantic, crossing mid to upper 40s SSTs prior to moving onshore. This should keep highs in the 60s at best, a good 10+ degrees cooler from their inland comrades.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread IFR/MVFR cigs are developing across the area, with pockets of LIFR ceilings west of I-95. Low stratus will linger through this morning, predominantly IFR, with VFR conditions returning from west to east around 16-18z. Northerly winds through this evening, with gusts around 20 kts between early this morning and midday.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through mid- week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SCA conditions continue through this afternoon for NE SC coastal waters and this evening for SE NC waters due to gusty northerly winds behind exiting low pressure system and seas 5-7 ft from S swell. Conditions slowly improve throughout the day as high pressure builds in from the west, with 10 kt NE winds tonight and seas 2-4 ft from NE swell and weakening S swell.

Tuesday through Friday night...Sfc high overhead to start Tue will slide off the SE States coast Tue night. Winds will veer from the NE AOB 10 kt to start Tue, to the S-SW 10 kt or less by Wed daybreak. Seas this period will be dominated by an ENE-E swell at 8 to 11 second periods. The sfc pg will tighten later Wed thru Fri, between the high well offshore and the stalled front meandering just north of the area. This will produce a SW wind reaching 15 to 20 kt at times with infrequent gusts up to 25 kt possible, especially late Fri. Could even observe a more southerly direction to the wind field nearshore during Thu/Fri aftn/evening aided by a resultant wind boundary, aka sea breeze. Its during that time that we could observe more frequent gusts to 25 kt near shore or along the immediate coast. Looking at seas becoming more wind driven dominant but with a continued underlying interacting long period ENE-E swell. Sfc dewpoints in the upper 50s to around 60 will move across local SSTs in the mid to upper 40s Thu thru Fri and as a result with a S-SW wind direction, patchy sea fog remains a possibility and has been included in the fcst.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ254- 256.