textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area until 8 PM EDT this evening. Another Heat Advisory will go into effect for the same locations from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring triple digit heat indices through Saturday.

- 2) A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

A cold front moves through the area from north to south Saturday. This front is aided by a trough that pushes down the mid-Atlantic coast from Canada, allowing the of hot weather to retrograde to the west. This trough will be slow in its arrival, allowing for more one more uncomfortably hot day.

Finally, the front is due sometime Saturday afternoon and evening, bringing its share of showers and storms to the area. Guidance continues to show bulk shear of 20-25 kts, and the front will be sufficient to provide steeper mid-level lapse rates than what we've seen recently. We're still days away, but SPC has already given a 15-29% chance of severe weather within 25 miles of a point across virtually the entire forecast area. Will need to watch the trends in the coming days.

Front will bring showers and storms to the area over the weekend, before another drying trends kicks in through the middle of next week. The front will help knock temperatures down to near or above seasonal norms, but highs in the lower 90s could rear their ugly head yet again by mid-to-late next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Variable winds at 5-8 kts will continue inland, while a seabreeze brings SSE winds at 8-10 kts at the coast. Winds calm tonight, and fog remains a possibility again before sunrise Thursday morning. Capping the restrictions at MVFR once again, with fog mixing out by 13Z Thursday morning. Seabreeze circulation begins again towards the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Areas of ground fog are possible late tonight and again Thursday night. Thunderstorms should become numerous across the area Saturday afternoon through Sunday as a cold front arrives from the north. VFR should be the main theme again by Monday.

MARINE

Through Monday...Bermuda high pressure should provide a light to moderate south to southwesterly breeze and dry weather again tonight through Thursday. By Friday, the high will begin to retreat offshore, as a cold front advances southward down the East Coast. The increasing pressure gradient between the high and the front should lead to an uptick towards a more solidly moderate breeze Friday, along with the development of choppier seas. On Saturday, the front should arrive during the afternoon or evening, accompanied by multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are possible, continuing into Sunday. Forecast gradually dries up Monday, leaving the waters with a northeasterly moderate to fresh breeze, and seas near 3-5 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096- 099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-058-059. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-058-059. MARINE...None.