textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A dry cold front will dip south through the Carolinas later today, bringing cooler temperatures tonight and Monday. Clouds will increase Tuesday as a warm front moves through. Dry high pressure should dominate the area through the remainder of the week with temperatures rising well above normal for late December.

UPDATE

Spotty fog and low clouds will dissipate in the next hour or so. Aviation discussion updated below for 12z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure will shift farther off the coast this morning as a dry cold front approaches from the west. May see patchy fog this morning but plenty of sunshine this afternoon on the shortest day of the year. The winter solstice will occur at 10 am this morning.

Winds will veer around to the W-NW and eventually N as the front crosses the area later today. A minor shortwave will push this front through with a wind shift and some clouds early this evening. Pcp water values will increase to near .8 inches in a narrow band early this evening before dropping off again to a quarter of an inch or less by early Mon morning. Strong high pressure will build in behind it. Temps will increase into the 60s this afternoon but will be back in the 30s tonight in increasing northerly flow and CAA post FROPA.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

1036 mb Canadian high pressure will move eastward across the central Appalachians Monday, reaching the Virginia coast during the afternoon. Northeasterly low level flow should bring seasonably chilly air across the area and highs are expected to reach 52-56. Mostly sunny skies early will begin to cloud over later in the day as cirrus increases in northwesterly flow aloft.

A weak coastal trough/psuedo-warm front will develop near the coast Monday night as winds veer behind the departing Canadian high. This feature should jump well north of the area Tuesday morning, allowing warmer southwest winds to mix down to the surface. A belt of mid level moisture originating from the west Gulf coast should cross the area Tuesday. Upglide within the moisture bearing layer centered on the 300K isentropic surface isn't impressive, but should still support plenty of clouds and maybe a sprinkle or light shower during the day, especially north of Cape Fear. Despite little sun, warm advection should allow Tuesday's high temps to reach 63-67 degrees.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

500 mb high pressure will remain centered across the central Gulf coast through the period, however a fairly strong shortwave diving southeastward across New England Tuesday night should support an offshore surface low that will push a cold front southward across the Carolinas.

It doesn't appear there will be a significant airmass change behind Tuesday night's front. In fact, with lots of sun on Wednesday (Christmas Eve) temps could rise even higher than on Tuesday with 70s possible across the Pee Dee region.

Southwest winds should develop again for Thursday (Christmas Day) and Friday. Sustained warm advection should push 850 mb temps to +11C on Thursday and to +13C on Friday, likely supporting 70+ degree temps inland from the beaches both days. If Florence has three consecutive days at/above 70 degrees it will be the first time since November 24-26 that's occurred.

Confidence begins to wane by late in the week with the shape of the upper ridge along the Gulf coast and the influence that shortwaves across the Great Lakes and New England might have. Yesterday's 12z ECMWF plus the 18z and 00z GFS bring a front through the Carolinas late Friday, an idea not supported by the Canadian which keeps a stronger ridge which shunts the shortwave energy farther north across Canada. The NBM blend knocks temps down about 5 degrees Saturday (mid-upper 60s) which is still well-above normal for late December.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR. Light and variable to calm winds will veer around to NW-N and increase to around 5 to 10 kts between 15 and 17z before turning northerly behind a dry cold front by 22 to 24z. Spotty low clouds and fog mainly at coastal terminals should clear by 13z. Otherwise expect mainly high clouds this afternoon thickening a bit as front passes early this evening with some cu mixed in around 6 to 7k ft. May see some low level wind sheer overnight tonight as low level winds increase out of the NE.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Light offshore winds will shift around to the north behind a cold front into this evening, increasing to 15 to 20 kts with gusts to 25 kts. This will push seas up to 3 to 5 ft by early evening and then up to 4 to 6 ft tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect beginning at 9p this evening and continuing into Mon as strong high pressure builds in behind the dry cold front.

Monday through Thursday...Breezy northeast winds 20-25 knots should be ongoing over the coastal waters Monday morning as Canadian high pressure builds eastward across the central Appalachians. As the center of the high reaches Virginia Beach Monday afternoon our wind speeds should begin to diminish. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through Monday evening, although it may be able to be canceled 3-6 hours early given our latest forecast.

As the Canadian high moves offshore Tuesday, a developing warm front should push through the area with winds becoming southwesterly. Veering winds are then expected Tuesday night as a cold front drops in from the north. Light north winds on Wednesday should veer northeasterly Wednesday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.