textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00Z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Freezing low temperatures possible for the next two nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Freezing low temperatures for the next two nights.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... There is still a very deep trough in the east, albeit a weakening one. High pressure has been driven into the Gulf States by this trough and locally we've cold advected to about -6C at 850mb. With our recent stint of warm weather the growing season has been declared started and tonight will be supportive of freezing temperatures. There isn't a tremendous amount of variance in temperature guidance though some of the 'warmer' numbers do show that our light N winds make it hard to radiate below freezing. With the majority of guidance still showing a freeze have not made any changes to the current Freeze Warning which remains in effect for all zones. In addition to the light N wind overnight some cirrus level moisture could complicate the solidity of our freeze potential. The process may repeat tomorrow night for northern and interior locales including the complication of high level moisture.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR with light northerly winds. Winds speeds could increase after midnight with some high cirrus streaming overhead, but with no major impacts to terminals.

Extended Forecast...VFR likely through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... High pressure spanning from DC to the Gulf States will keep winds out of the N to NW. A subtle shift of the center of the high will add a few knots of wind speed overnight into early Wednesday that will reverse later Wednesday as the ridge axis draws closer to the coast. The 3-4 second wind chop will be coincident with a 8-9 second swell from the SE.

Wednesday Night through Sunday... Fairly benign marine conditions continue for the latter half of the week as sfc high pressure moves through the area. Good chance for a cold fropa late in the period, with S/SW winds increasing up to 15-20 kt ahead of the front due to a tightened pressure gradient. Seas consistently in the 2-4 ft range, which includes a 9-10 second ESE swell component.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ087-096- 099-105>110. SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 10 AM EDT Wednesday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.