textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

Beach Hazards Statement issued for all beaches for strong longshore currents today.

Rain chances/amounts trending down Wed night, especially in SC.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

Mostly dry weather is expected through early next week as high pressure prevails. Some mostly light showers are likely late Wed night with a weak cold frontal passage, especially in NC. Instability appears quite minimal but can't rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Bulk shear values will be supportive of organized storms but as usual instability appears weak across the local area given the more unfavorable time of day so we're not anticipating any severe storms at this time. The NBM continues to show very low rain chances this weekend into early next week but will have to monitor the strength of the upper ridge in suppressing convection as showers/storms could become a bit more likely, especially near the coast where moisture will be greatest along the sea breeze.

Temperatures will be near to below normal through Friday night before rising above normal starting Saturday as deep high pressure strengthens. Temperatures should reach near 90 inland Saturday with lower 90s early next week. Fortunately, moisture levels will be held in check so max heat indices shouldn't be much higher than the air temps.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR. Some scattered low clouds are around our area with no impacts to airports expected. N/NE winds around 10 kts in the morning with winds turning more easterly with the afternoon seabreeze. Only high clouds expected through the day with perhaps some 5kft stratocu in the afternoon. Restrictions towards the end of the period not expected at this time.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through early Wednesday. Potential for flight restrictions increases with another cold front late Wednesday. VFR should return through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Elevated seas with strong NE flow will continue through the majority of the AM hours with a Small Craft Advisory in place. Winds will become more easterly with the afternoon seabreeze. By tonight, easterly winds will be ~15 kts with seas 3-5 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday night...High pressure centered offshore will prevail until a weak cold front moves through Wed night. Another wind surge is expected Thu night as high pressure builds in with a shot of cold advection. The high will then shift offshore late week with conditions expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108- 110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ250- 252. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254- 256.