textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we head towards 3 PM EDT. Updated the aviation section below for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Wet and unsettled pattern Sunday through at least mid week.

- 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to develop Sunday into Monday.

Small Craft Advisory in effect. See the Marine section below for more details.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR to open the 18Z TAF period, with restrictions on the way. Scattered convection over the SC Midlands and Pee Dee may try to spill over into KFLO and KLBT through this evening, creating brief MVFR to IFR conditions in heavy rain or TSRA. Overall lull in the activity expected tonight, but PROB30 groups were included after 06Z to account for storms potentially scraping the coastal terminals. Ceilings come down through the overnight hours, where many could be battling MVFR after 06Z. Warm front pushes onshore Sunday, creating more widespread showers and storms towards the end of the period. MVFR ceilings dominate, with IFR possible during TSRA.

Extended Forecast...A slow moving upper trough settling over the region, combined with an anomalously moist airmass, will support periods of showers and storms from Sunday afternoon through at least the middle part of next week. Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Moderate breeze out of the SE veer to the S tonight, as a warm front lifts back to the coast. Seas start to increase modestly at first, going from 2-3 ft to 3-5 ft. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in a fresh to strong breeze out of the SW to SSW. Small Craft Advisory goes into effect at noon EDT Sunday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm, expiring at 8 PM EDT Monday. In response to these gradient winds, seas rapidly increase to 4-7 ft out 20 nm, up to 7-8 out 60 nm, before improving gradually towards 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday. Winds back slightly to the S Tuesday, improving to a moderate breeze, and then towards a gentle breeze by Thursday. Seas continue to improve to 2-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from noon Sunday to 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.