textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Heat Advisory has been issued for all inland areas today. Pops have increased slightly across the board.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Expecting today to be very similar to Sunday from a temperature standpoint with convective coverage increasing somewhat. High resolution guidance is more aggressive with sea breeze convection than the global models but based on the somewhat impressive coverage inland Sunday an increase in pops seems warranted. Temperature guidance is very similar and although somewhat marginal in nature it appears a couple of hours of apparent temperatures at or in excess of 105 degrees is doable similar to Sunday. A Heat Advisory has been issued for all areas noting the marginal nature of the product. More organic convection and debris cloudiness may dictate readings slightly but only a couple of hours of max heating before dry air mixing down seemingly does the trick.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Ocean/sea stratus is leading to MVFR conditions along the coast this morning and have used prevailing groups to address as it seems somewhat established. VFR conditions return after daylight and the attention transitions to convection of which PROB 30 groups have been applied to address later in the afternoon.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Monday, continuing through Wednesday.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds continue through today as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected with gusts up to 20 knots possible through the evening. Some convection could distort winds temporarily. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.