textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No changes coming down the track as we approach 6 AM EDT. Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

2) Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather is expected through the weekend with scattered showers and thunderstorms and some heavy rainfall at times.

Deep layer moisture will exist as mid to upper trough to our west slowly nudges eastward before lifting north by the end of the weekend. Pcp water values will reach up near 2.25 inches along the eastern Carolinas. A weak trough/front will also drift into the area. Overall, the environment remains relatively unstable with high moisture content. Potential for excessive rainfall and possibility of a wet microburst could exist to produce gusty thunderstorms with torrential rainfall at times. A few spots could see upwards of 2 inches.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will return during the upcoming week.

Heat and humidity will return next week as mid to upper trough lifts north and becomes replaced by a sprawling upper ridge across the south. This should drive temps up as H5 heights rise to nearly 596 dam by midweek. May see periods of dangerous heat, with a heat advisory possible across portions of our area, especially Wed and Thurs. Temps should be back up in the 90s for much of the upcoming week ahead.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR to IFR fog lingers inland, but KFLO and KLBT have managed to dodge it thus far. KILM, KCRE, and KMYR have also managed to avoid occasional MVFR ceilings scraping the coast. Any low stratus restrictions at the coast this morning should be brief and should lift by 13Z or so. The fog inland is a bit trickier. If fog settles in along KFLO or KLBT, it may linger into the afternoon. This will need monitoring.

Another round of showers and isolated storms should affect the coastal terminals this morning, with greater potential inland this afternoon. Used TEMPO and PROB30 groups to represent the timing and intensity of potential storms.

Winds go calm early this evening, remaining that way all night long tonight. Restrictions looking more likely inland tonight, where KFLO and KLBT may be dealing with MVFR at the very least. IFR or LIFR low stratus may become the theme towards the end of the 12Z TAF period.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog each morning through early next week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible as well, diurnally enhanced Saturday and Sunday (lesser chances Monday and Tuesday).

MARINE

Through Tuesday...S-SWly flow will prevail through today with a nearly stationary front across the inland Carolinas and high pressure far offshore. This front/trough will gradually shift to the coast and become increasingly diffuse. With the old front in the vicinity light/variable winds will prevail outside of any showers and thunderstorms. High pressure will prevail off the coast by early next week with a return of S-SWly winds potentially increasing to around 15 knots by Tuesday, especially across the NC waters. Seas will be 3 ft or less through much of the period given the light winds and lack of any significant swells.

CLIMATE

Wilmington, NC is currently experiencing its hottest summer on record. Average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently 0.1 deg F above 2011's average, the current record-hottest summer season.

#1 2026 81.9 deg F (with four days to go) #2 2011 81.8 deg F #3 2010 81.8 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.