textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
Potentially higher convective rain chances Friday.
KEY MESSAGES
- 1) Building Heat and Humidity Likely To Bring A Risk of Extreme Heat this Weekend.
- 2) More Dangerous Heat Possible Next Week.
KEY MESSAGE 2
More Dangerous Heat Possible Next Week.
In the wake of the cold front moving out to sea, sfc high pressure and associated low-level NELY low-level flow may bring a brief reprieve from the heat, primary due to lower BL dewpoints in the upper 60s/near 70 and less oppressive humidity.
However, the onset of SELY low return flow leading and rising humidity, combined with a strong mid-level high (~597 dm)centered over the Tn Valley and mid South, will likely bring increasing chances of extreme heat by the middle part of next week, with heat indices climbing back into the 105-110 F range.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
High confidence in dry VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. Light winds on Thursday will become southeasterly during the afternoon as a sea breeze develops.
Extended Forecast... Patchy fog is possible Friday and Saturday mornings. Otherwise, VFR conditions should dominate. Scattered diurnal and sea-breeze driven convection returns Friday and Saturday. More organized and widespread shower and storm chances are expected Sunday afternoon as a weak back-door cold front approaches the area.
MARINE
Through Thursday... With high pressure in control, NELY winds will veer to SSW winds during the afternoon, then remain light to gentle, 10 kts or less through Friday morning. Seas subside to 1-3 ft amidst the light winds.
Friday through Monday... The pressure gradient will tighten Friday and into the weekend, ahead of a weak back-door cold front that will move into the area late Sunday. SSW Winds could increase to 15-20 kts Friday and Saturday out to 20 nm, and 20 to 25 kts out to 60 nm, with seas building to 3-4 ft out 20 nm, and up to 5 ft out 60 nm.
The front arrives late Sunday, with winds briefly turning westerly before returning to southerly and decreasing to 10 to 15 kts, as seas improve to 2-4 ft. On Monday, in the wake of the exiting front, sfc high pressure and the resultant NELY flow of 12 to 18 kts will bring an uptick in seas to 3-5 ft.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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