textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A decaying band of showers associated with a strong cold front will push through tonight, with temperatures falling below normal Sunday night and Monday before moderating to around normal thereafter. Another cold front late in the week will bring another round of below normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Sea fog has continued to plague some of the Brunswick and Cape Fear beaches this afternoon, but overall sunshine was the rule. Temps soared into the 70s most places and sunshine may drive some places to near or record temps. An area of clouds and line of showers has been running up from the coastal waters brushing the tip of Cape Fear. Expect these showers to get pushed farther offshore into tonight as a cold front approaches from the west.

Warm and moist air ahead of the front will keep temps warm through tonight with clouds and a decaying band of showers moving through overnight. Temps will remain in the 60s for most of the night. The best chc of showers should come early Sun morning but limited in coverage. Gusty SW winds will shift to the W into Sun morning and then NW into Sun aftn as cold front moves through. A deep mid to upper trough with stiff NW sfc winds will help to scour out any clouds through Sun aftn and bring much colder air into the area with the best CAA arriving later on Sun.

Low relative humidity and increasingly gusty NW winds could lead to some fire weather concerns Sun aftn, especially in places that do not receive much or any rainfall.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Temperature forecast through the period as surface high pressure builds in from the northwest. Lows will be in the middle to mostly upper 20 both mornings with better radiational conditions Tuesday as thermal profiles moderate. Highs will be hard pressed to reach 50 Monday but the slow warming will lead to highs in the middle to upper 50s Tuesday.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Medium range ensembles coming together and to an extent the deterministic guidance with regards to the mid level pattern evolution for next week. Deep troughing and perhaps even a cut off low develops in the lower Appalachians by Thursday or so. Any significant surface feature/moisture advection is displaced offshore really at or to the east of the Gulf Stream current. While there is some snowfall remaining in some suites of guidance/ensemble members mainly to the west of our CWA...this appears to be driven by pure mid to upper level dynamics and in no small part upslope flow. Not quite ready to say the area doesn't see anything significant but just about there...five days with the advanced guidance is my thresholds these days. Unfortunately not really seeing any significant rainfall as well. Kind of a raw week for temperatures as highs will be in the 50s at best and lows primarily below freezing. The warmest day appears to be Wednesday with the coldest next Friday/Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Gusty south-southwest winds will persist ahead of an approaching cold front through tonight. There is a low end chc of restrictions due to sea fog at coastal terminals into tonight but overall expect VFR through the TAF period. A band of showers will decay as it approaches the inland terminals this evening, with some redevelopment of isolated to scattered activity anticipated later in the night as it approaches coastal terminals. Could see brief sub-VFR conditions in rain and fog overnight into early Sunday.

Marginal LLWS right around the 30kt threshold is anticipated after winds subside somewhat this evening as 40-45 kts of flow around 2kft arrives ahead of the incoming cold front. Winds will veer to westerly between 09-12z and then to NW with gusts as high as 30kts as strong cold front moves through from west to east across the forecast area. Moisture and clouds will be scoured out by end of TAF period.

Extended Forecast...Gusty winds will continue behind the front through late Sunday as with VFR conditions developing and prevailing through Wednesday. Sub-VFR conditions possible again with arrival of next cold front Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...An approaching cold front will result in increasing south to southwest winds today through tonight with seas also rising as a result. This will push seas up to 3 to 5 ft with winds gusting around 20 kts or so, but overall, remaining below SCA thresholds as the warmer air over colder shelf waters will limit strength of wind. Winds will veer around and strengthen behind front through Sunday with SCA conditions developing in strong CAA. Expect W-NW winds up to 25 to 30 kts with seas up to 5 to possibly 6 ft in outer waters with strong offshore flow. May even see some gale force gusts.

Sea fog may continue to be an issue through tonight, but should diminish as winds shift around to the SW to W through tonight.

Sunday night through Thursday...Strong cold air advection and small craft advisory conditions in place through early Monday morning. Still some Gale gusts possible as well. North to northwest flow will continue later Monday and turn more west during the day Tuesday. Speeds will come down significantly during this time perhaps ending up in the single digits. The flow turns more southwest ahead of the next cold front Wednesday quickly turning offshore into Thursday. Significant seas will be 3-5 feet early and again late with the southwest flow. 2-4 and even 2-3 feet suffice in the interim.

CLIMATE

Max temperatures may reach or exceed the daily records today. Site Jan 10 Wilmington, NC: 80F (1974) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 79F (1957) Florence, SC: 80F (1974) Lumberton, NC: 78F (1957, 1930)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252- 254-256. Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.