textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Record high temperatures are expected today for inland locations. Boundary layer winds will increase today ahead of an approaching cold front which should limit the potential for fog on land tonight. Sea fog remains possible both this morning and this evening. Aviation discussion updated for the routine 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonable warmth will transition to much cooler weather on Thursday as a wet cold front moves through.

2) Periods of sea fog will continue to impact nearshore waters and adjacent coastal areas through tonight.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonable warmth will transition to much cooler weather on Thursday as a wet cold front moves through.

Inland locations are expected to break high temperature records this afternoon. An afternoon sea breeze will keep coastal locations cooler. See the Climate section for details on threatened records.

A cold front moves through the area Thursday in association with an upr- level trough. High temps will come early on Thursday with temps dropping through the afternoon as flow transitions to cooler NW winds behind the front. Isolated thunderstorms are expected, but the early timing and mainly elevated instability should limit the strength of any convective development. Overall rainfall amounts should average between a quarter and a half of an inch. Following early day highs in the upr 60s to lwr 70s, temps will bottom out around the mid 30s Thursday night before moderating towards the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Periods of sea fog will continue to impact nearshore waters and adjacent coastal areas through tonight.

Light southwesterly flow will maintain elevated dew points through Thursday. A strong cold front will bring much cooler and drier conditions on Thursday afternoon. Prior to this cold front, sea fog may impact coastal areas of southeast NC and northeast SC. Sea fog may move onshore at times between midnight and mid-morning today and Thursday. Portions of the Grand Strand and coastal Brunswick County have the best chance of seeing impacts from sea fog.

An approaching cold front will bring an increase in winds this evening which will strengthen through its passage on Thursday. These increased winds will lower the risk for fog on land tonight. As winds increase late tonight and Thursday, the nearshore waters will also struggle to maintain any impactful visibility restrictions due to sea fog.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Boundary layer winds are elevated enough to limit widespread fog potential on land tonight. I have favored some ground fog for the NC terminals where boundary layer moisture is highest. Sea fog remains a concern for the Grand Strand terminals this morning, but night fog products on satellite are much less active in the region than previous nights. Still, I favored a persistence forecast for CRE given light winds turning southward early this morning. Amendments may be necessary to trim this back as we get closer to sunrise.

VFR expected for all areas during the period; higher confidence in this after sunrise. A strong cold front will approach the region late tonight into Wednesday. The compression of the pre- frontal pressure gradient will lead to gusty winds beginning this evening. Fog is not expected due to the gusty winds. A strong inversion and lower boundary layer RH should limit stratus. Small chance of some MVFR stratus impacting CRE and ILM due to southerly flow over the cooler nearshore waters.

Extended Forecast... Showers and thunderstorms are possible on Thursday morning as a strong cold front moves through the area. Strong winds will accompany the front for much of the day on Thursday. Winds will shift from southwest to northwest during the day, maintaining their gustiness throughout the shift (an Airport Weather Warning may be needed). VFR is expected late this week and for the first half of the weekend. Restrictions are possible due to increasing rain chances on Sunday.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Bermuda high pressure remains in control for one more day. An approaching cold front will bring slightly stronger winds this afternoon, gusts could approach 20 knots within the sea breeze and sustained winds will continue to increase this evening. The pre-frontal compression of the pressure gradient will lead to sustained winds near 20 knots and gusts near SCA thresholds tonight. Winds increase along the prolonged southerly fetch, therefore wind waves are likely to build quickly before sunrise Thursday. Seas along the outer edge of the 20 nm forecast zone could exceed 6 feet by the end of the period.

Thursday through Sunday... A Gale Watch is now in effect Thursday aftn and evening, due to 50% confidence in frequent gusts of 35 kt in association with a cold fropa. Thereafter, winds and seas will quickly improve into the day Friday as sfc high pressure quickly builds into the area, with high confidence in sub-SCA conditions continuing through daytime Sunday.

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Wed Mar 11 Wilmington NC......... 86 in 2016 Lumberton NC.......... 87 in 1925 N. Myrtle Beach SC.... 82 in 1997 Florence SC........... 86 in 2015

Lumberton and Florence are forecast to break record highs today. Coastal locations will be cooled by an afternoon sea breeze and have a lower chance to break existing records. A cold front will bring cooler air on Thursday and high temperature records are not expected to be threatened.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for AMZ250-252-254-256.