textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures will warm up for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances increase sharply on Thursday ahead of a cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend with near to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Temperatures continue their upward trend with highs in the lower 60s near the coast. Remnants of shallow cold air to our north and east will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to around 60 along and west of the I-95 corridor. Sunny to start courtesy of surface high pressure offshore. Upper level clouds increase late in the day as southwest flow intensifies in the lee of a departing trough.

Despite return flow pushing dew points into the upper 40s by sunset, upper level cloud cover should prevent widespread fog tonight. Without including the mention of fog in the latest forecast due to uncertainty and overall lack of coverage, a few localized pockets of fog will be possible between 00Z and just after midnight. Boundary layer winds turn southeasterly and increase after midnight, so any fog that develops should give way to low clouds. Onshore flow could produce a shower near the coast and southern areas of the Grand Strand. The bulk of shower activity should hold off until late Thursday.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Increasing deep southerly flow aloft on Thursday with shortwave energy riding around deepening mid to upper trough will lead to increasing chc of rain. Initially looks like some lighter pcp associated with warm front Thurs morning with low clouds and lighter pcp but chc of pcp will increase by Thurs evening. Deeper layer moisture well ahead of approaching cold front with increasing elevated instability and better support in the mid to upper levels will lead the way for potential for some heavier showers and possibly some rumbles of thunder late Thurs. Could see some decent QPF into the early overnight hours. Temps up around 70 Thurs aftn will remain in the mid 60s with dewpoints reaching around 60 degrees Thurs eve in gusty southerly winds. Thurs night lows will be warmer than average daytime highs for this time of year.

Best lift and moisture will shift off the coast through Fri morning with some lingering showers possible before deep layer drying takes place as winds veer around behind cold front through Fri aftn. Dewpoint temps will drop about 20 degrees by Fri eve with clearing skies. Temps up near 70 for highs on Fri will cool through Fri night in CAA behind front. Will see temps back near or slightly below normal heading into the first half of the weekend.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Seasonably cool and dry air will be in place the first half of the weekend as high pressure migrates across the Carolinas. Northerly flow will continue to veer around and lighten as high pressure shifts nearly overhead Sat aftn. Warming will take place as airmass modifies in light southerly return flow Sat night into Sun. Overnight lows will between 35 and 40 most places Sat night in decent radiational cooling and will rise into the mid 60s for highs Sun aftn with a beautiful day in store.

A moisture starved backdoor cold front will drop down Sun night into Mon with strong high pressure building down behind it. This will lead the way to a wedge like pattern with clouds and increasing chc of light pcp Tues into Tues night. Temps should run near normal on Tues.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure will maintain light winds today. As the high moves farther offshore tonight, winds turn southeasterly and increase in advance of a cold front. Seas around 2 feet today will increase to 2-3 feet late tonight.

Thursday through Sunday...Increasing SE to S return flow will develop as gradient tightens between between high pressure offshore and approaching cold front. This will lead to SCA conditions late Thurs into Fri as seas build to 5 to 8 ft in southerly flow up to 25 kts. Winds will veer through Fri as cold front makes its way through. By Fri night, northerly winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kts and this will allow seas to drop to 4 to 6 ft. By Sat, high pressure will migrate overhead further weakening the winds and allowing seas to drop to 2 to 4 ft. Seas will remain 3 ft or less through much of the weekend as winds veer around to the south through Sunday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.