textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1)The heat and humidity continues for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heat and humidity continues for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Though slightly flattening in amplitude mid level ridging will be in place across the Gulf States though Monday with some slight amplification and retrogression thereafter. A healthy piedmont trough develops Monday and Tuesday bolstering the warmth. Depending on phasing of dewpoints and temperatures Monday, apparent temperatures in excess of 105 degrees and perhaps 110 degrees look possible. A potential fly in the ointment is the mixing down of lower dewpoints with heating as mixing depths look fairly deep. For now, have held off on an advisory to give later shifts time to get better clarity on this. Either way, Monday will be hot. This uncertainty will repeat itself on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

06Z onwards there is the chance for MVFR fog and possibly low stratus, mainly at KILM/KLBT/KFLO. CIGs/VSBYs could go down farther than MVFR but the 06Z issuance might have higher confidence on that. Into Monday drier air should serve to sequester afternoon activity, but a stray shower or storm can't be ruled out along the sea breeze. Confidence too low for which terminals could be impacted to include in TAFs at this time.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... Overall expect light winds through the period, though there could be some enhancement in the afternoon in sea breeze areas in south to southwest flow Monday afternoon. Overall, winds and seas should be relatively benign outside convection through Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.