textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 PM EST.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Near record cold tonight in South Carolina.

2) Rain chances increase with a late week cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Near record cold tonight in South Carolina.

High pressure well to our west is sinking southward, on it's way to the Gulf Coast by morning. It's westward displacement from the area means that tonight is not an idealized radiational cooling night as we should hold onto a few knots of NW wind. The records below in the climate section for CRE and FLO represent the NBM 25th and 10th percentiles and thus seem a long shot. Stuck closer to the 50th with keeps these records safe. The eve shift will have a better idea how much the winds start to decouple and may re-evaluate. The light winds also far preclude Cold Weather Advisory. Weak WAA is slow to kick in tomorrow so highs will struggle their way to about 50, still some 10 degrees below climatology.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances increase with a late week cold front.

Troughing over the central US will push a cold front southward late this week. As the trough aloft and attendant front dips southward, the trough will flatten and force the existing boundary to slow down. Showers will accompany the cold front.

Probabilistic guidance favors rainfall late Thursday (best chance on Thursday night and early Friday morning) with the initial passage of the front. Given that the slow-moving boundary will be in the vicinity of our area for the end of the week, rain chances may continue late Friday (best chance near the coast). Ensembles also hint at rain chances extending into a portion of Saturday as a low develops along the stalled or slow-moving boundary. Uncertainty is high due to the slow movement and location of low level features and position of a trailing trough to our north.

Current high temperatures will certainly need adjusting as we get closer to the event. Cold air north of the front will filter southward later this week. With rainfall in the forecast, temperatures could remain in the 50s for Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Ceilings at 6000-8000 ft across the area right now should push offshore over the next few hours, leading to SKC by around 06Z tonight. From there, clear skies and unrestricted vis expected through the end of the period. A few gusts up to 18-20 kts recorded at KFLO and KLBT recently, but should be calming here soon. Northwesterly winds continue through most of the period, backing to the WSW late Tuesday afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR until Thursday, when flight restrictions return due to increasing rain chances.

MARINE

Through Tuesday... Strong gradient to continue between high pressure diving south across the nation's midsection and the large nor'easter off NE coast. Have not changed the exp time of SCA to err on the side of caution, but it looks like it may be lowered a bit early, the winds being the main driver of the headlines as the offshore fetch maintains a nearshore/offshore gradient in wave height.

Tuesday Night through Friday... High pressure will build across the southeastern US during the middle of this week. Westerly and southwesterly develop during this time while the pressure gradient remains compressed. Small Craft Advisory conditions, primarily for seas up to 7 feet, will be possible on Wednesday and again on Thursday as a cold front dips southward toward the Carolinas. The cold front will linger in the area through Friday.

CLIMATE

Record lows for Tuesday morning 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC 18 set in 1901 Lumberton NC 18 set in 1978 N. Myrtle Beach SC 26 last set in 2009 Florence SC 24 set in 1968

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.