textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather through early today will be followed by drier air along with near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather today will be followed by drier air along with near to below normal temperatures into midweek.

Light rain has spread northward as a cold front currently sits along the coast with SW flow running over the stable air at the surface. The front will continue moving southeast tonight as an upper trough over the U.S. East Coast shifts eastward. Drier air at the surface and aloft will begin working into the area through today and should bring about an end to most of the rainfall by afternoon. Cooler air will filter into the area Monday night and Tuesday. The 850 temps drop from 16C today down to less than 10C by Tuesday. Overnight lows will drop below 60 most places inland with some 40s in spots with dry air mass in place.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low stratus and light rain continue across the area this morning leading to widespread IFR. Ceilings will rise to MVFR for most locations within a few hours of sunrise, occurring first at FLO/LBT. Inland terminals should see VFR develop as early as midday. At coastal sites low level moisture will be slow to exit the region, despite the front already offshore. For CRE/MYR/ILM sub 2k ft MVFR ceilings are likely to persist into the afternoon before ceilings rise above 2k ft, eventually reaching the VFR category late afternoon.

Winds will remain from a northerly direction today and tonight with speeds staying under 10 kt.

Extended Outlook...VFR dominates Monday night through Friday. Only exception could be some patchy fog in the mornings.

MARINE

Northerly to northeast flow will develop behind a cold front into early this morning. The surge of stronger winds holds off until a reinforcing trough reaches the waters tonight into early Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory has been issued for midnight tonight through 3am Wed morning. Should drop below headline criteria after midnight Tues night, but seas will remain elevated into Wed dropping down to 2 to 4 ft Wed night into Thurs. Winds and seas will diminish Wed night through Thu before increasing again into next weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.