textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather expected from this weekend through much of next week with temperatures near- to below-normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather expected from this weekend through much of next week with temperatures near- to below-normal.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather with considerably cooler and drier air filtering in for this weekend and beyond. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s away from the immediate coast. As ridging aloft nudges in from the west, high temps are expected to rebound early in the new week, bringing highs into the middle 70s while lows remain mostly in the 40s through Wednesday.

A significant trough in the jetstream is forecast to develop and send well-below normal cold into the eastern US late next week. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around the broader trough, there is at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Low stratus and fog are finally coming to an end over the TAF sites to start the 12Z TAF period, with the aid of dry north winds increasing a few knots behind a departing cold front. This will keep VFR in place through the end of the TAF period. Some gustiness may occur during the morning/midday as up to 15-20 kts of low-level flow is tapped due to lapse rates rapidly steepening after sunrise. However, this belt of flow will translate east and gradually decrease through the afternoon.

Extended outlook...VFR likely through Wednesday due to abundant dry air.

MARINE

Behind a cold front, northerly winds are expected to increase this morning to between 15-20 kts before gradually subsiding this afternoon. Another northerly wind surge is expected early tonight into the 10-15 kt range in the 0-20nmi zones and 15-20kts in the 20- 60nmi zones before weakening to 10kts or less Sunday afternoon. Thereafter, benign marine conditions are expected with winds mainly under 15 kts out of the west to southwest through Wednesday as high pressure maintains control.

Wave heights of mainly 2-4 ft in the coastal waters and 4-6 ft in the 20-60nmi waters are expected through Sunday morning. Seas then gradually settle down to between 1-3 ft in the coastal waters and 2- 4 ft in the 20-60nmi waters early next week. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while offshore-directed wind waves are secondary.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.