textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will lift north tonight with unseasonable warmth arriving Thursday through Sunday. The next meaningful chance of rain will be late Sunday into Monday accompanying a cold front. Much cooler and drier air will follow on Tuesday into midweek.

UPDATE

Exceptionally high dewpoints for early April are streaming onshore across the eastern Carolinas. The SPC sounding climatology webpage shows upper 60s dewpoints are among the highest values on record for this time of year in Charleston and mid 60s are only a degree or two below daily maxes at Morehead City. Isolated convective showers across eastern South Carolina developing from surface-based instability should fade over over the next couple of hours, however extensive low level moisture should keep plenty of low clouds around through the night, especially inland.

No changes have been made to forecast lows, 65 to 68 degrees, almost 20 degrees above normal and near the warmest observed for April 3 at our four main climate sites.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

High pressure centered over New England will shift eastward through tonight, supporting continued southeasterly flow. As a stalled front lifts back northward tonight, expect winds to continue veering and end up at southerly before daybreak. As this occurs, mid-level height rises will begin in earnest as an anomalously strong upper high builds over the Atlantic Ocean just north of The Bahamas. This will translate into early-summer-like warmth, with plenty of stratus overhead resulting in overnight lows in the mid-upper 60s. After starting out humid and mostly cloudy, sunshine will help to break the up the clouds by midday and boost daytime highs on Thursday into the mid-upper 80s inland and low 80s nearer to the coast.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Deep ridge of high pressure will dominate the weather over the eastern Carolinas Thurs night through the weekend. Deep southerly flow around the center of the ridge over the waters to our east will provide a continuous flow of warm and moist air for several days. This will produce dewpoints into the 60s. Anomalously high H5 heights and 850 temps will lead to temps well into the 80s inland. Potential for our first 90 degree day in spots inland, especially in the Pee Dee region. The cooler ocean waters will keep temps along the beaches and closer to the coast several degrees lower, especially with a decent sea breeze pushing inland in the afternoon. Overnight lows will be in the mid 60s in a warm and more humid airmass.

May see some morning fog. Soundings showing some indication of shallow moisture stuck under subsidence inversion, mainly early morning, but the deep dry column above should mix down and provide plenty of sunshine through much of the day. Intermittent sea fog may affect coastal locales as very warm and moist air flows over the cool shelf waters.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A deep mid to upper trough will push a cold front into the Carolinas on Sun. Moisture will increase through the column in a deep S-SW flow bringing pcp water values from an inch or less previous days up to 1.8 inches into the I-95 corridor by Sun evening. As moisture through the column increases into Sun eve, do see some increasing CAPE inland, but it remains elevated. Overall, should see increasing clouds and chc of shwrs and iso thunderstorms ahead of the cold front late Sun into Monday.

Temps should only reach into the 70s on Mon due to clouds and pcp and by Mon night into Tues, much cooler air will move in behind front. Overnight lows Mon night will be down below 50 most places and highs on Tues only in the 60s. Overall, cooler and drier high pressure will build in behind the cold front into midweek with pcp water values dropping down to a half inch by Tues morning and dropping further into Wed. Temps on Wed may only reach the lower 60s and may even see potential for frost Wed night as temps drop below 40 most places inland.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Veering low level winds will maintain tropical humidity across the eastern Carolinas into today. CIGS invof 1 KFT are likely to persist for several hours inland. Along the coast such CIGS are likely to be of shorter duration. Overall, expect gradually improving conditions toward daybreak as winds become more southerly with VFR anticipated all terminals by about mid-morning.

Extended Outlook... Primarily VFR through the period. Early morning vis/cig restrictions are possible each morning from Thursday morning onward as abnormally high dew points move in. A cold front approaching from the west will likely bring additional restrictions from late Sunday through Monday.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High pressure well north of the waters will maintain southeasterly winds into tonight. As a stalled front lifts back northward overnight, expect winds to veer to southerly by the end of the night and remain southerly through Thursday. Seas in the 2-4 ft range this afternoon and evening increase to 3-5 ft tonight before subsiding slightly on Thursday. Waves will be dominated by continued southeasterly swells with a period around 8 sec and accentuated by wind waves out of the south.

Thursday night through Monday...High pressure off shore will maintain a persistent S-SW flow through the weekend and up until a cold front moves through on Mon night. The winds will become gusty in decent sea breeze each afternoon near shore but will increase across the area up to 15 to 20 kts with higher gusts Sat night into Sun as gradient tightens as cold front approaches the Carolinas. Expect gusty SW winds to veer to the W behind front heading into Tues morning.

Seas will remain in the 3 to 4 ft range over most waters through Sat but will build heading into Sun in increasing southerly push. Small Craft Advisory conditions will become more likely beginning late Sun and should last into Mon night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.