textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion for 06Z terminal forecast updated below. Added key message for above normal temps next week. Gale Warning now in effect from this morning through this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An isolated severe storm possible this morning.

2) Gale warning for all waters through this afternoon.

3) Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An isolated severe storm possible into today.

A shortwave associated with the remnants of Arthur will move across the area this morning. Abundant tropical moisture with the shortwave and surface wave/low coupled with strong divergence aloft will lead to development of deeper convection this morning. Current radar shows an initial line of storms and then area of mainly stratiform pcp with embedded convection across central SC with another line of storms following behind it through mid to late morning. Storms associated with shortwave and remnants of Arthur should be moving off the coast by early afternoon, but a bit more convection is possible aligned with cold front dropping south late this evening into tonight.

The boundary layer will remain well mixed, allowing for surfacing of stronger winds aloft, especially within stronger convection. Low level jet of 35 to 50 kt will not have much trouble mixing to the surface, suggesting convection with any respectable updraft will have the potential to produce damaging wind. The good news is the timing early today will limit surface based instability.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Gale warning for all waters starting late tonight through Friday afternoon.

See marine section below.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures will remain above normal for much of the next week.

Temps will be back in the 90s over the much of the area combining with increasing dewpoint temps bringing heat index values above 100 beginning Mon for a portion of the area and spots near or above heat advisory thresholds possible some afternoons. Expect daily showers or thunderstorms back in the forecast next week in a more typical southerly flow of warmer and moister air and the clouds and pcp will impact the potential for heat advisory conditions.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Thunderstorms right on the doorstep of FLO and then will follow at LBT around 07z until 09-10z with mainly stratiform following thunderstorms. This convection should make it to coastal terminals by 08-09z lasting until 11-13z. Another line of storms will reach the inland terminals mid to late morning and the coastal terminals late morning to early afternoon. Expect ceilings in the MVFR to IFR range with the thunderstorms with gusty SW winds. By early afternoon ceilings will break up with scattered strato cu and some mid to high clouds. These storms are in association with a shortwave aloft and remnants of Arthur. A cold front will drop down closer to 00z this evening and could see an isolated storm or two ahead of it with possibility of brief MVFR/IFR conditions. Did not include any mention in terminals as of now.

SW winds at the sfc have diminished to under 10 kts most terminals but should remain just high enough to prevent any LLWS but expect winds above the sfc to be up to 25 kts or so.

Extended Forecast...VFR returns Saturday and continues through Monday. May see MVFR to IFR ceilings in tstms come Mon night into Tues associated with next frontal system.

MARINE

Offshore high pressure and the remnants of Arthur along with a cold front will enhance the gradient with increasing SW to W winds through today. A Gale Warning is in effect with gusts to 40 kts expected this afternoon. Conditions will start out in the Small Craft Advisory range through this morning, but will ramp up this afternoon as winds increase with approach of a cold front.

Gales probably won't occur over most of the waters, and what is likely to occur will be in the form of gale gusts, outside of the convection that moves offshore by this afternoon. Although the tropical remnants of Arthur will move through the area during the first half of today, the approaching front will keep southwest flow around 20 kt through the afternoon. Cold front will drop south of the waters late tonight with northerly flow setting up for early Sat before coming back around to southerly by the end of the day as the high shifts eastward. Southwest flow continues Mon and Tue with diurnal enhancement increasing speeds to 15-20 kt.

Seas in excess of 6 ft will remain significant until offshore flow develops following the passage of the front late tonight. Seas drastically improve for the weekend before starting to build slowly early next week as a more typical summer pattern sets up.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254- 256-280-284.