textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Coastal Flood Advisory that was in effect for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, has been cancelled. That should be the end of coastal flooding for this multi-day event.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion has been updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding is likely done as astronomical tides continue to improve.

- 2) Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding is likely done as astronomical tides continue to improve.

Minor coastal flooding is ongoing along the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington, as of this typing at 2 PM EDT. This should be the last of the coastal flooding for this multi-day event, as astronomical tides continue to come down. Really confident on this idea at the coast especially.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next rain chances return over the weekend.

Ridging will continue to build through Saturday, keeping the warming trend around. Temperatures warm up a degree or two every day through Friday. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day of the week, with the heat index climbing up into the lower 90s in most areas (in October, mind you).

Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near the upper Midwest all the way to New England helps to suppress the ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time. These rain chances increase Sunday and into early next week, as part of the broad trough in the Ohio Valley amplifies and sweeps through the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still not expecting severe weather with this event.

What is becoming more apparent is a significant cooldown coming early next week, where highs may only get into the 70s. Bring back a more legitimate fall!

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Seabreeze starting to build at the coastal terminals, allowing winds to come from the ESE. Winds calm by 00-02Z this evening. Fog becomes a concern after 06Z tonight. Boundary layer moistens up slightly more than it did last night, promoting fog development, but the layer is still quite shallow. Some high cirrus moving in overnight may try to limit fog activity, but the cirrus deck itself is not very dense. Think shallow ground fog will be the main story, but the layer itself will likely be thick. IFR is becoming the trend more than MVFR at this point, if not even LIFR inland. Fog should mix out by 13-14Z Thursday morning. Towards the end of the period, winds remain calm inland, while a weak seabreeze brings SE winds to the coastal terminals again.

Extended Forecast...Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture. Moderate risk for showers/storms starting Sat afternoon at all terminals.

MARINE

Through Monday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable light breeze at night. Winds strengthen very slightly up to a moderate breeze out of the E by Sunday ahead of a frontal system. Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night. In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period southeasterly swell at 10-14 seconds, and a secondary easterly swell at 8-10 seconds.

Significant change starts building in on Monday, with a series of cold fronts picking up strengthen and sweeping through the waters. Winds back to the NE and rapidly increase up to a fresh breeze, with wind gusts perhaps flirting with Small Craft Advisory thresholds by late Monday. Seas start coming up towards 2-3 ft out 20 nm, up to 4 ft out 60 nm.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.