textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Rain continues through tonight, and may give way to some light freezing rain on the backside of this system by early Thursday morning.

2) Abnormally cold weather will return this weekend before a warmup commences next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Rain continues through tonight, and may give way to some light freezing rain on the backside of this system by early Thursday morning.

Rain is ongoing across the area this afternoon, with the cold front located just north of the local forecast area. This front will slowly push towards the coast tonight, bringing the main precip shield with it. Up to half an inch of rain has already fell in parts of the Pee Dee region, with another quarter to half an inch expected through Thursday morning. The trough aloft will deepen as the front approaches, which may allow for brief periods of heavier rain. This may lead to locally higher rainfall totals in some spots, but there are no flooding concerns, and there certainly isn't near enough to threaten the drought.

Bigger thing to note is the cold air that will start seeping in immediately behind the front tonight. Warmer air still persists aloft, but surface temperatures will start to dip below freezing a few hours before sunrise Thursday morning. There appears to be just enough overlap between the surface cold air and the moisture to allow for some light, isolated freezing rain to develop along the northern tier of our area (generally along a line from Darlington County, SC all the way to Pender County, NC). Keeping the Winter Weather Advisory in place for Robeson, Bladen, and Pender Counties, which have the best chance at seeing the most accumulation (read: only a trace to a few hundredths of an inch at best). No significant impacts are expected.

Freezing rain should cut off in these areas by 9-10 AM EST Thursday morning as surface temperatures kick up above freezing again. Rain chances taper off throughout the day, with clouds slower to clear out.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Abnormally cold weather will return this weekend before a warmup commences next week.

A mid-upper trough axis will pass overhead on Thursday night with surface high pressure to the north and strengthening low pressure offshore helping to send cold and dry air southward. This is expected to support low temps in the low-mid 20s away from the immediate coast early Friday morning. Weakening winds through the night should preclude apparent temperatures reaching 15F, but some wind chills in the upper teens are possible in far northeastern portions of the forecast area (e.g., Pender and New Hanover counties) where winds linger the longest.

While a brief period of shortwave ridging will keep high and low temps on Friday and Friday night much closer to normal (e.g., highs in the upper 40s to low 50s and lows in the upper 20s to low 30s), another shot of arctic air will follow behind a dry cold front pushing through Friday night. Despite plenty of sunshine on Saturday, strong cold advection via breezy northwest winds will keep highs mostly in the low-mid 40s on Saturday with overnight lows in the upper teens to low 20s. Once again, winds will be weakening through the night, but a steady light breeze should remain, which may result in a period of wind chills at or below 15F, which would necessitate a Cold Weather Advisory. On Sunday, the core of the cold air will be shifting offshore, permitting slightly warmer daytime highs than on Saturday in most areas with light and variable winds.

Thereafter, mid-upper ridging gradually shifts eastward and raises heights across the area, thus leading to a gradual warmup with little to no precip chances.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mixed bag of VFR all the way down to LIFR across the area to kick off the 18Z TAFs, due to a cold front bringing rain to the area. Main shield of rain will continue to move over KFLO and KLBT, slowly heading towards KILM, KCRE, and KMYR this evening. Tried to thread the needle with PROB30 groups to best represent the timing of the poorest IFR to LIFR conditions with heavier rain late this evening. Main swath of rain should be moving on from the inland terminals by 06Z or so, and then offshore of the coastal terminals by 12-15Z. Winds varying at first, before settling on the NNE towards the end of the period, gusting up towards 18-19 kts.

Extended Forecast...Very gradual improvement towards MVFR expected Thursday afternoon, turning to VFR sometime Thursday night. From there, VFR to dominate through next Monday.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Southwesterly winds at 10-15 kts veer towards the NNE by Thursday morning as a cold front moves through the waters. Gradient winds tighten as a result, and gusts may kick up to 25-27 kts at times Thursday afternoon, particularly over the waters from Surf City, NC to Cape Fear, NC. This is right on the edge of a Small Craft Advisory, but the setup just doesn't look strong enough to warrant an advisory at this time. May need to re-evaluate this during the next forecast cycle tonight. Seas generally 2-4 ft, with 5 ft waves building in over the aforementioned NC waters late Thursday afternoon.

Thursday Night through Sunday Night...A couple of fronts will result in changeable winds with initially north to northwest winds on Thursday night backing to southwesterly on Friday, then veering to northwesterly again over Friday night. Offshore flow will continue through most of the weekend before turning westerly or southwesterly late Sunday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are possible from Friday night into Saturday night amidst a strong push of cold air. Seas will vary as cold air surges arrive, then subside, with most of the waters seeing between 2-5 ft waves. Some 6 ft seas may be observed in outer portions of the coastal waters southeast of Cape Fear both on Thursday night and Friday night. Seas subside to around 1-3 ft on Sunday amidst light winds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 11 AM EST Thursday for NCZ087-096-105. SC...None. MARINE...None.