textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening.

- Hot and humid conditions build back in by mid week with dangerous heat possible especially towards the end of the week.

- Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few severe thunderstorms are possible into this evening.

Isolated activity is popping up west of I-95 with a larger line forming in western SC/NC associated with an incoming trough. The seabreeze will continue to push inland which could enhance this activity, with the trough/front moving through this evening. All of these boundaries paired with marginal shear could result in local enhancement of storms. The main threat will be isolated damaging winds due to wet downbursts or more organized clusters as shear increases late in the day. Activity should be offshore by midnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions build back in by mid week with dangerous heat possible especially towards the end of the week.

Building high pressure paired with dry conditions will lead to a long string of hot weather mid week onwards as heat indices rise into the hundreds. Heat Advisories are possible as early as Thursday but more likely Friday/Saturday where Extreme Heat Warnings are possible for coastal counties. Sunday introduces some uncertainty with an increase in shower/storm chances but for now coverage seems too low to make a dent in the heat.

Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for more heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

The front moving through today will stall to our south where an area of low pressure is expected to form along it either Monday or Tuesday, mainly south of SE NC & NE SC. The system may develop tropical characteristics as it drifts toward the west through mid- week before conditions become less favorable for development towards the end of the week. The NHC is highlighting a low chance for tropical/subtropical development with a low risk of any significant direct impacts to SE NC & NE SC at this time.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Decaying storms currently affecting FLO/LBT will move east during the next few hours. Convection will weaken as it moves east, with the environment becoming a bit more stable. Still potential for visibility and ceiling restrictions at CRE/ILM/MYR through 03Z, but impact at any one site will be short lived.

Cold front will push south across the area overnight with high pressure building in from the north. Can't rule out low stratus moving in from the north during the predawn hours, but all indications are MVFR ceilings would remain north of ILM/LBT. Some suggestion of potential for isolated convection along the NC coast Mon afternoon as weak low level convergence develops under a shortwave, mainly for ILM, but confidence is low. Winds will be out of the north following the front with speeds under 10 kt.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

MARINE

Monday Night through Friday...A cold front moves through tonight into Monday with high pressure setting up inland leading to NE flow (becoming more easterly in the afternoons) through Wednesday. Along the front that stalls to our south a low could form early in the week, with a low chance of it becoming a tropical/subtropical system while it remains over water. The low moves away and the high becomes more diffuse by mid week with winds becoming more southerly. Seas largely 2-4 ft across the waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.