textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated but overall there were no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably hot weather will continue through Monday and return again Thursday and Friday.

2) Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably hot weather will continue through Monday and return again Thursday and Friday.

DESCRIPTION...A cold front will approach tonight before likely weakening and stalling over the area Monday. Should see above normal temps continue through Mon, with heat indices possibly reaching Heat Advisory levels (105+ degrees) closer to the coast where dewpoints should be highest.

After a lull in the heat Tue/Wed the heat should return Thu/Fri ahead of another cold front with the potential for heat indices reaching 105+ degrees, especially east of I-95.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding likely during evening high tide cycles through early week.

DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides along with persistent positive tidal anomalies will lead to minor tidal flooding during evening high tide cycles.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in mainly VFR conditions outside of scattered to numerous aftn/eve showers/storms thru around 04Z due to high instability, mesoscale boundaries like the sea breeze and an upper disturbance.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR expected Mon afternoon thru Fri. A stalled front over/near the area thru early Wed will keep at least a low risk for showers/storms, especially closer to the coast. An approaching cold front will then bring a moderate to high risk for showers/storms Fri.

MARINE

Monday through Friday...Strong winds ahead of an approaching cold front will lead to wind gusts up to around 30 kt north of Cape Fear thru tonight. The front will likely stall over or near the coast early this week but the position of the front will largely determine conditions so there is some uncertainty into mid week before the front dissipates. Conditions look to worsen again starting Thu as another cold front approaches with a Small Craft Advisory a good bet across the nearshore waters with gusts near gale force beyond 20 nm, mainly north of Cape Fear.

CLIMATE

Near record highs today, especially inland.

Sun Location Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252.