textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

1) Models are slower with the rain chances during the pre-dawn Wed hrs and as a result have mainly dry conditions prior to sunrise Wed. There-after, during daylight Wed, continued with the west to east light rain trend of overspreading the FA.

2) Have upped seas slightly across the waters from Cape Fear south to Murrells Inlet to account for a better fetch for SW-W winds to build seas upon. reflected in the updated CWF and MWW message.

123PM EST Change... Small Craft Advisory has been issued for overnight into early Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing rain chances on Wednesday.

2) Dry and relatively cooler Thursday and Friday but warming into the weekend with increasing rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with increasing rain chances on Wednesday.

A cold front will move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moisture and forcing both look relatively weak here, bringing only light rain that should bring accumulations of only up to a quarter of an inch at best. Wednesday's high temperatures still remain 8-10 degrees above seasonal norms, but cloud cover means that they won't get quite as warm as they got today. Elsewhere, light sea fog or mist possible at the coast, particularly tonight into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and relatively cooler Thursday and Friday but warming into the weekend with increasing rain chances early next week.

High pressure will build down from the NW Wed night into Thursday with dry and relatively cooler but seasonable weather Thurs into Fri. A coastal trough/warm front will produce increasing lift late Sat into Sun with increasing rain chances. Greater chc of rain will come late Sun into Mon as a storm system tracks across the Gulf coast states. Still too early to predict just how much rain we will get through early next week.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions thru 12Z Wed with 25k ft ceilings lowering to around 10k ft. Dynamics from embedded 5H s/w trof and forcing from an approaching cold front dropping to the SSE will result in light pcpn during Wed with initially just above MVFR ceilings Wed morning dropping to MVFR and possibly eclipsing IFR ceilings briefly during Wed aftn on either side of the cold front as it drops across SE NC and NE SC. Have kept vsby AOA 5SM but any isolated pockets of moderate rain could drop it to 3SM.

SW winds 5 to 10 kt this evening will veer to the WSW-W around 10 kt overnight as the sfc pg further tightens. Have continued with the LLWS threat during the pre-dawn Wed hrs, up until winds start gusting after daybreak. Gusts to 15 to 20 kt become common during daylight Wed, mainly after 13Z. Winds veer to the WNW-NW 5 to 10 kt after the Cold FROPA.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions expected across all TAF sites thru Fri as cold high pressure dominates. Flight restrictions are expected to develop across the area Sat into Sun as low pressure tracks east across the Deep South and Southeast US.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Gradient winds out of the southwest increase ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 kts expected right along a line that extends roughly 20 nm offshore, prompting a Small Craft Advisory that kicks in at 1 AM EST tonight, continuing until 1 PM EST Wednesday afternoon. Seas get up to 3-5 ft at the peak of the wind wave gradient, potentially up to 6 ft out 20 nm from shore from Little River Inlet, SC to Cape Fear, NC. The front itself starts moving through the waters Wednesday afternoon, where a veering wind shift to the northwest will occur, decreasing the speeds to around 10 kts. Seas also come down slightly towards 2-4 ft.

Wednesday night through Sunday...NW to N winds will develop as high pressure builds down behind a cold front Wed night into Thurs. May see some wind gusts up to 25 kts. Winds and seas will diminish through Thurs aftn with seas dropping from 2 to 4 ft down to less than 3 ft Thurs night through Sat. Winds and seas will increase again Sat night into Sun as next storm system moves across the Gulf Coast states.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.