textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure will maintain very cold temperatures through tonight, before temperatures warm up for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances will increase on Thursday ahead of the next cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend with near to above normal temperatures.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Arctic high settling into the region setting stage for idealized radiational cooling. As such did lean a bit on the NBM 25th percentile though overall guidance spread isn't overly large. WAA will kick in tonight but obviously remain stuck well above the boundary layer. And with mixing possibly capped as shallow as 1700ft Tuesday this will still be the case and highs will struggle to hit 50, some category and a half below climatology.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

A noticeable warming trend compared to climo this period as sfc high pressure shifts offshore and mid-level ridging moves into the SE U.S. coastal area. After low temps in the mid 20s to lwr 30s Tuesday night, expect well above freezing temps Wednesday night with lows mainly 40-45 deg. Highs Wednesday should reach or slightly eclipse 60 deg most areas. No precip through the period with light winds and increasing clouds.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Daytime Thursday will feature chance PoPs due to weak low-level WAA and increasing deep-layer moisture well ahead of an approaching cold front. Temps will similarly rise through the day...with highs in the mid/upr 60s. Best chance of rain (likely PoPs) is Thursday night in association with the cold fropa and best shortwave energy aloft, and even a few rumbles of thunder are possible due to weak instability aloft. Much drier air builds in from the west on Friday behind the front, with a return to temps around freezing Friday night due to good radiational cooling conditions with sfc high pressure moving directly over the area. Another warm up ensues for the weekend with temps about 10 degrees higher on Sunday than Saturday as winds become out of the SW.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR/SKC and light winds will continue over the next 24 hours.

Extended Forecast...There is a moderate potential for MVFR to IFR ceilings and visibility Thursday into Thursday night in showers ahead of a cold front.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...N winds will continue to abate as Arctic high continues to build in from the N and W. Seas will be comprised of a light SE swell and a diminishing wind wave, the latter's period possibly shortening to 2 seconds by Tuesday.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Benign marine conditions midweek with sfc high pressure in the vicinity. Next (high) chance for a SCA comes Thursday night into Friday in association with a cold fropa. Seas will build up to 6-7 ft in the SSW flow just ahead of the front, followed by gusts up to 25 kt into Friday morning. Improving marine conditions thereafter for the weekend as sfc high pressure builds in.

CLIMATE

Record Coolest High Temperatures for Mon Dec 15: KILM: 34 / 1958 (Observed was 37) KLBT: 37 / 1949 (Observed was 36, breaking the record) KCRE: 40 / 2010 (Observed was 37, breaking the record) KFLO: 35 / 1958 (Observed was 37)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.