textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory allowed to expire at 7 pm.

Small Craft Advisory for all waters extended thru 6am edt Thursday. Winds especially nearshore will run SSW-SW 15 to 20 kt with frequent gusts 25+ kt. Seas tonight generally 3 to 5 ft with a few 6 footers.

Beach Hazards Statement in effect for Thursday for strong south to north longshore current for Pender, New Hanover, Horry, Georgetown County Beaches.

Moderate rip current risk for all 5 county beaches of Southeast NC and Northeast SC.

Aviation discussion updated with 00Z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday night, with an attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slow-moving cold front will bring periods of heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly between Thursday and Saturday night, with an attendant risk for localized flash flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Rain will gradually overspread the area late tonight from the NW as the front arrives. The boundary is progged to stall along the coast through both Friday and Saturday. And while this will bring some no doubt welcome drought releif it also sets the stage for training thunderstorms and flash flooding. WPC is depicting a 3 day QPF of 1-2" across most of the area with a localized max of 3" in the Cape Fear region due to it being closest to the boundary. The showers and additional cloud cover will cap the heat below advisory thresholds across most of the area though a marginal advisory still looks possible ahead of the boundary along sections near the immediate coast. After the front washes out over the weekend next week will start to warm gradually, eventually possibly needing advisories towards the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR to dominate the evening thru daylight late morning hrs. Exception will be the coastal terminals where MVFR stratus fracti or cumulus fracti clouds at bkn/ovc coverage in the range of 1500-2500 ft will occur. Winds thru the night will run SSW-SW 5-10 inland 10-15 kt at the coast with gusts up to 20 kt at the coast. Look for diurnal cu and mid and upper level clouds to dominate Thu with convection possible from 18Z-24Z as forcing from the approaching cold front and subsidence aloft breaking down. At this point advertised the convection with Prob30 groups. SSW-SW winds will remain active at the coastal terminals with inland terminals likely to be diseased with outflow from convection upstream and eventually convection affecting the inland terminals. Confidence is there enough to place convection at the coastal terminals toward the end of the fcst period unless activity is able to fire along the sea breeze early on.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to tstorms remains possible through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoon and evening.

MARINE

SCA still in effect but winds and seas forecast to abate tonight as the approach of a cold front pushes the tighter gradient out to sea. This will become more pronounced heading into Friday as the front stalls along the coast. Right now it looks like winds only veer as far as westerly and no northerly component becomes established, though should this occur it would only be over northernmost 0-20nm zone. Seas comprised mostly of shorter period wind chop, not forecast to change appreciably through the period as even late in the forecast any swell energy that develops will remain well offshore in S to SW flow.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.