textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we approach 3 AM EDT. Updated aviation discussion below for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Scattered showers and storms possible over northeast SC today.

- 2) Warming trend kicks in Monday, peaking on Tuesday.

- 3) Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing more organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or severe.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Another cold front comes in Tuesday night, bringing more organized showers and storms. Some storms could be strong or severe.

Next organized rain and storm chances come in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with the next front. This front misses out on the diurnal heating, but it appears the extra moisture and buoyancy that gets injected in the atmosphere will provide energy for potentially strong to severe storms. Strong winds would likely be the biggest concern here. These storms could also produce a lot of lightning at times.

Front pushes offshore later Wednesday, where diurnal showers and storms become more of the theme again through the remainder of the work week. The front may retrograde back towards the coast, potentially adding more rain chances next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mixed bag of VFR down to IFR to open the 06Z TAF period. Generally, low stratus expected to become a growing trend over the next several hours, with perhaps some fog in between. KFLO and KLBT stand the greatest chance at prolonged IFR restrictions through 13Z or so. Expecting more of a MVFR trend along the coastal terminals. Even after the IFR lifts, MVFR is expected to stick around over the inland terminals through much of the AM hours. Meanwhile, convection stirring over upstate SC may try to make its way down towards KFLO later this morning. Threw in a TEMPO group from 08-12Z to account for possible TSRA. Another round of convection is possible for the inland terminals sometime in the 20-24Z range this evening. Heading into tonight, winds calm again, and the period ends in VFR (for now).

Extended Forecast...More restrictions from fog looking more likely late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail with relatively brief flight restrictions from diurnal convection Monday through Thursday.

MARINE

Sunday through Thursday...Old frontal boundary is now south of the waters. It may retrograde back towards the northeast SC waters at times today, but makes an overall movement out of the area. This will keep winds rather variable and generally under 10 kts through Monday. The exception will be within scattered storms that may impact coastal waters off the northeast SC coast during the day today. Winds turn from SE Monday to SW Tuesday, through remaining relatively light. Seas around 2-3 ft out to 60nm through early Tuesday, primarily due to E swell with weak wind chop mixed in.

Winds and seas increase during the day Tuesday as a front approaches from the northwest and low level winds strengthen ahead of a trough. SW winds peak around 20 kts Tuesday night, with gusts around 25 kts out to 20 nm and 30 kts gusts out to 60 nm. In response, seas increase to 4-5 ft with the building southerly wind wave, also peaking Tuesday night. Scattered storms will move offshore late Tuesday and Tuesday night, particularly off the Cape Fear coast. Southwest winds and seas slowly improve during the day Wednesday before the front moves offshore later in the day/Wed night, followed by benign marine conditions.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.