textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Just after 8 PM EDT...

The Heat Advisory across the area officially expired at 8 PM EDT. Another advisory will be issued in the coming hours to address the continued heat on Sunday.

Elsewhere, issued another Beach Hazards Statement for a strong south to north longshore current along all east-facing beaches Sunday. A moderate risk of rip currents is also expected along all beaches Sunday. There is perhaps an argument to be made for a high risk of rip currents along the Brunswick County beaches, but that will involve closer examination later tonight.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion has been updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and possibly Monday and Tuesday.

2) A mid to late week front will bring good rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory expected again tomorrow and possibly Monday and Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Although there is no mid level ridge in place (the culprit for most of the month) our 850mb temps hovering around 20C will keep Advisory-worthy heat locked in through Sunday. Confidence is a bit lower thereafter as cloudiness associated with convection could temper the heat in places but advisories do seem possible for at least part of the region.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A mid to late week front will bring good rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A large upper low develops north of NY on Wednesday in a pattern that looks less July-ish. This will push a bona fide front into and eventually through the region. With all of the heat and humidity in place ahead of the front's arrival the stage should be set for fairly widespread convection Wednesday and Thursday and possibly Friday as well should the boundary linger. WPC even has NC zones in a Slight for excessive rainfall, hopefully leading to some drought relief.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR should dominate through the 00Z TAF period. Scattered convection ongoing in parts of the NC Triangle, but is not expected to impact any of the terminals tonight. SSW winds continue through the overnight hours. Gusts have mostly ceased at KFLO and KLBT, while gusts are still routinely hitting 20-25 kts at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR. This is expected to continue until about 06Z tonight, leaving a persistent breeze at 8-10 kts.

Winds veer slightly more out of the SW by late Sunday morning. Gradient winds will tighten, so expect another day of gusty winds (~20 kts at KFLO and KLBT, 25-30 kts at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR). Some guidance suggests some spotty showers dotting the area from west to east from 15-21Z Sunday, but confidence is too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Elected to throw in PROB30 groups at KFLO and KLBT for possible MVFR to IFR due to convection towards the end of the period (21-00Z). Ultimately, think the convection rolls in after the 24-hour TAF period.

Extended Forecast...Showers and storms are expected to become more widespread mainly across North Carolina between Sunday night and Monday night with brief periods of MVFR or IFR restrictions possible. Chances for these restrictions are lower in SC due to anticipated lesser storm coverage. Forecast storm chances decrease on Tuesday and Wednesday, leaving a low risk for transient MVFR or IFR restrictions in convection. There is a potential for an uptick in convection again on Thursday with some restrictions possible.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... The gradient tightens in the very near term between the Bermuda High and a strengthening Piedmont trough. SCA now in effect for all waters through 00Z Monday. Confidence a little lower thereafter as the trough may weaken, but winds could stay close to advisory thresholds for an extended period of time. An even larger surge in winds/seas is slated for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a cold front. And although not expressly depicted in our forecasts just yet but seas larger than 6 ft appear possible.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.