textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The biggest forecast challenge remains the potential for fog and/or low cloud ceilings developing late tonight. Shallow Atlantic moisture, perhaps only a few hundred feet thick, should creep back across I-95 late this evening. With clear skies and light winds this may develop areas of ground fog affecting the Pee Dee and Border Belt regions. The Cape Fear area should have thicker moisture present, potentially favoring low stratus over fog. Confidence for coastal areas is not particularly high. No changes to temperatures have been made.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unsettled weather Tuesday and Wednesday will give way to cooler weather.

Previous forecast remains on track for this week with guidance showing good agreement on an upr- level trough diving into the Mid Atlantic during the mid week period, leading to elevated chances for rain (50-60% PoPs) Tuesday through Thursday following a dry Monday. Not expecting enough precip to put a dent into the drought, and severe weather is not anticipated. Thereafter, the upr-level low will cut off east of the Mid Atlantic region allowing for cool and dry advection into the area, likely leading to a period of slightly below normal temperatures for the first time in quite a while.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions should continue through at least 06z Monday before there is increasing risk of ground fog and/or low stratus. Shallow Atlantic moisture should creep back onshore tonight. With mainly clear skies and light winds areas of fog should develop. Confidence is moderate for inland ground fog to develop at KFLO and KLBT mainly after 09z. Confidence is low for a mix of fog and low stratus to affect KILM and KCRE late tonight. Fog and/or stratus should dissipate between 13-14z with VFR conditions anticipated to continue throughout the day.

Extended Outlook...Another round of low cigs/vsby is possible Tuesday morning, followed by a good chance for MVFR/IFR ceilings at times in rain showers Tuesday through Thursday.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue over the next couple days with a weak pressure gradient over the area. A low pressure system will develop offshore starting mid week leading to likely SCA conditions through Friday with even some gale gusts possible, even over the 0-20 NM waters, depending on how close to the coast the low stays and how quickly it strengthens. An improving trend then for marine conditions into the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.