textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 0Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern continues, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Unsettled weather pattern continues, with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected through the end of the week.

A slight deviation from what we saw yesterday as mainly stratiform activity continues at the coast, the debris clouds slightly sequestering inland activity. The heavier showers we saw into the evening are instead forming west of I-95, though we could see showers start to pop up further east should these clouds break up quickly. Isolated flooding is possible should slow-moving, heavy rainfall move over the same areas for several hours. Activity should calm down into the evening before picking up again early Wednesday morning, mirroring what we've been seeing with showers moving onshore. Due to the calm conditions and rainfall, fog formation is possible, particularly inland, though there's uncertainty with the coverage at this time. Activity should be slightly diminished into Wednesday as the upper low shifts west, more noticeable as we head into the weekend. We could see a return to a more typical scattered afternoon shower/storm pattern as moisture sticks around but without much upper level forcing.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Predominantly VFR. Brief MVFR fog possible along and west of I-95 during pre-dawn hours. Another round of showers will impact coastal areas overnight into Wednesday morning, and have included PROB30s for coastal terminals for low vsbys associated with any heavy showers. TAFs currently carry VFR conditions during the day Wednesday, with 10 kt S winds and gusts to 15 kts. Scattered storms possible Wednesday afternoon, but confidence in coverage is too low to include in TAFs at this time.

Extended Forecast...Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in showers and storms for the remainder of the week. The moist low- level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday...Sub-SCA S/SE flow continues through the period as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. Chances of showers and storms remain elevated most days, esp. during the night and morning hours over the waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None.