textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Moderate to high potential for areas of fog early this morning. Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Areas of fog may reduce visibilities to 1 mile or less at times early this morning.

- 2) Cool Start to the Week, Hazardous Marine Conditions Likely.

- 3) Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Significant Warming Trend Kicks in by Thursday, Scattered Storms Possible in the Afternoon.

Ridge at 850 mb continues to push further offshore, but the western extent of it has no problem reaching well into the Carolinas. Meanwhile, another ridge over the Gulf expands and amplifies by the time it moves over Florida and the Caribbean by midweek.

With vertical continuity in place, this allows some considerable warming to settle in across the area Thursday through Saturday. High temperatures won't have a problem reaching near 80 degrees inland, while the beaches hit comfortable temps in the lower 70s. Looks like all records are safe here, but these high temperatures still register some 12-15 degrees above normal, and mimic more mid-late April than early March. Thermal profiles start looking a bit familiar, as this warmth triggers instability in the lower levels. Cannot rule out some scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon each day. Another old friend in the seabreeze will show up, given the stout differential heating between air and water (current water temperatures hanging near 50 degrees). Meteorological spring indeed.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A nearly saturated low-level airmass will provide favorable conditions for areas of fog late tonight into Saturday morning, with potential for periods of LIFR. Ceilings and visibility will slowly improve after sunrise, with ceilings lifting to MVFR by 16-18Z.

Extended Forecast...Brief flight restrictions are possible Sunday night into Monday as another cold front moves through the region. VFR returns Tuesday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...A quasi-stationary frontal boundary was lingering about 100 miles off the coast early this morning, resulting in sustained 10-15 kt northerly winds across the waters. This front will slowly drift further east through today, allowing the pressure gradient to weaken and winds to diminish to 10 kt or less during the afternoon. Very weak high pressure will build in from the west Saturday night, maintaining a northerly direction, with speeds less than 10 kt.

Sunday through Wednesday...Rather tame start, with winds backing to the southwest at 5-10 kts and seas 1-3 ft. This changes rapidly Sunday night, as a cold air damming wedge starts building in from the northeast. Very stiff northeasterly flow starts coming in across the NC coastal waters late Sunday night, reaching the SC coastal waters before sunrise Monday morning. Winds and seas won't have a problem reaching Small Craft Advisory criteria at this point, sticking around through Tuesday night. Winds look to gust up to 30 kts, and may even hit gale force at times. It doesn't look quite consistent enough for a Gale Watch or Warning, but we'll see how the next couple of forecast cycles shape up. Seas get up towards 4-5 ft at the coast over the SC waters from Little River Inlet to South Santee River, possibly reaching towards 6 ft up towards Surf City, NC. As you head out towards 20 nm offshore, seas are a bit more uniform at 6-7 ft. Tuesday night, the wedge starts to break down, breaking the northeasterly winds and veering them to the southeast. Winds decrease considerably down to 5-10 kts Tuesday evening through Wednesday. Seas are a bit more stubborn to come down, hanging near 3- 5 ft by late Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.