textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs. Risk for at least patchy freezing fog has increased a bit tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low confidence for snow accumulation this afternoon and evening as surface temperatures remain above freezing. Limited accumulation is possible near and west of I-95 on cooler surfaces, with no significant impacts anticipated at this time.

2) Dangerous driving conditions tonight into Monday morning are possible due to patchy black ice and perhaps some freezing fog.

3) Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday/Tuesday nights.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Low confidence for snow accumulation this afternoon and evening as surface temperatures remain above freezing. Limited accumulation is possible near and west of I-95 on cooler surfaces, with no significant impacts anticipated at this time.

Low pressure will pass offshore as a cold front pushes in from the west through this morning and afternoon. This will result in increasing rain chances through the morning with moderate rainfall across the area. Temperatures aloft will drop below freezing into the afternoon where there will be a small window for rain/snow mix before dry air wraps around the departing low and precip chances come to an end in the evening. Surface temperatures will remain above freezing which will inhibit snow accumulation, particularly on the roads, but areas that will cool off faster such as bridges and grassy areas could see some accumulation. The best chances for any accumulation will be near and west of I-95 during the afternoon. Reasonable worst case scenario, some isolated spots could see totals up to 1".

KEY MESSAGE 2: Dangerous driving conditions tonight into Monday morning are possible due to patchy black ice and perhaps some freezing fog.

Lows dropping into the 20s and lingering low-level moisture from today's rainfall could lead to the development of black ice on the roadways tonight into Monday morning. Low confidence at this time but freezing fog may be possible late tonight as skies clear out quickly behind the low and winds go calm.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Dangerously low wind chills possible Monday/Tuesday nights.

The combination of below normal temperatures (mainly in the 20s) and wind could lead to dangerously cold wind chill temperatures around 15 to 20 degrees Monday and Tuesday nights. Thus, Cold Weather Advisories are possible, especially Monday night.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR tonight will transition to MVFR by 10-12Z Sunday as a cold front approaches. Light rain will transition to moderate rain into the afternoon with IFR CIGs. Rain chances will start to come to an end ~00Z from west to east but there could be the threat of some fog overnight, low confidence on coverage at this time. Cold temperatures could freeze standing water and patchy fog overnight Sunday.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions possible into Monday morning. VFR likely onwards through Wednesday. Restrictions may return with another front Thursday, VFR afterwards.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Strong offshore (NW-W) winds through today as a cold front approaches, wind speeds ~15-20 kts with gusts just below 25 kts. Seas 2-4 ft with a W/NW wind wave at 2-3 ft and 3-4 seconds and a weaker SE well at 7-8 seconds. Conditions remain below Small Craft Advisory thresholds.

Monday through Thursday Night...Moderate confidence this period. Winds/seas will remain elevated prior to and after cold frontal passages Monday night into early Tuesday and Thursday night but the risk for Small Craft Advisories (due to 25+ kt gusts) is low.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.