textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the routine 12Z TAF issuance. Potential Gale conditions midweek, especially from Cape Fear southward.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Temperatures near or a few degrees below normal today through Thursday. Frost/freeze conditions are not expected.

- 2) Potential extended play of SCA conditions Tuesday evening thru Friday night. Possible Gale force wind gusts south of Cape Fear Tuesday night thru Wednesday night.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Potential extended play of SCA conditions Tuesday evening thru Friday night. Possible Gale force wind gusts south of Cape Fear Tuesday night thru Wednesday night.

See the Marine section...Tuesday through Friday Night.

AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR has been established across the region as northerly winds turn toward the northeast this morning. Winds will be gusty this morning and could be variable near the coast where NE winds are favored, but some marine influence could impact wind direction slightly.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR conditions expected through Friday.

MARINE

Through Monday... A cold front will sink south of the area this morning. The surge of winds following the front will bring a period of SCA conditions, both with gusts to 25 knots and seas in excess of 6 feet. Conditions should improve by early this afternoon. SCA remains in effect until noon. High pressure offshore will maintain northeasterly flow around 10-15 knots tonight. Winds will begin to increase late tonight into Tuesday. Seas maintain an unsettled 3-4 feet this afternoon through early Tuesday.

Tuesday through Friday Night...Secondary dry CFP occurs Tue morning. Strong high pressure will follow and ridge across the area from the Great Lakes during Tue. SCA conditions will develop by late Tue aftn as the highs 1035-1040mb center moves to the NE States by late Tue night and basically ridges/wedges across the Carolinas thru Thu night. The sfc pg will further tighten during this time-line with strong SCA conditions Tue night. Guidance suggests, Gale conditions may materialize from Cape Fear southward as Gusts in excess of 35 kt potentially becomes more frequent especially across waters with SSTs having pushed hier given last weeks worth of persistent onshore SE-S winds. The Gale conditions could potentially last thru Wed night. Models keep the baroclinic zone well east thru south of the local waters and therefore pcpn not a player. However, there are hints of an inverted sfc trof developing by mid-week off the Carolina Coasts but models not consistent with 1 another for this occurring. The wedge breaks down during Fri as the highs center pushes off the NE states coast and offshore. Winds will drop below SCA thresholds by early Fri, HOWEVER, given the large NE-E fetch for much of this work week, seas will remain elevated AOA SCA thresholds for the majority of this period, ie. beginning late Tue and continuing into Fri night. Double digit seas are not out of the question given the excellent long fetch and the longevity of these conditions.

CLIMATE

After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3 are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence.

CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of the month.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT today for AMZ250-252-254- 256.