textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory for today has expired. Moderate risk of rip currents in effect for most of Brunswick county for Monday.

Temperatures are trending a little cooler for the early and middle portions of this week. This is partly due to afternoon convection. However, temperatures will remain slightly above normal.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue this week, but the extreme heat observed over the last few days should start to relax early this week. Heat Advisory thresholds have been marginal the last several days and a degrading ridge will continue to allow temperatures to cool by a couple of degrees early this week. Humidity will increase in response to a building Bermuda high, but afternoon heat indices should remain between 100 and 104. The prolonged nature of the warm temperatures should be considered for any outdoor plans.

Afternoon thunderstorms will remain focused along the Piedmont trough today. More widespread activity is possible a weak trough approaches the area Monday through the middle of this week. Increasing activity along the sea breeze could also provide additional rounds of storms each day.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Predominantly VFR through morning, with patchy shallow fog possible overnight especially where rain fell today. Elevated boundary layer winds will prevent deep fog from forming. Monday, there may be a few hours during late morning hours of MVFR cigs where broken 2000-3000 ft diurnal cumulus deck forms before lifting to VFR. Scattered thunderstorms forecasted for Monday afternoon, with potential for gusty winds, and have included PROB30s in the TAFs. Southerly winds prevail throughout TAF period.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Monday, continuing through Wednesday.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds continue through Monday as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected on Monday with gusts up to 20 knots possible through Monday night. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.