textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast for showers and thunderstorms remains in place this weekend. The extended forecast has trended cooler.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend.

2) Heat and humidity will build and heat indices should exceed 100 degrees through Monday.

3) Next week has trended cooler.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this weekend.

IR satellite imagery shows the developing areas of moisture across the southeast this morning and in the Missouri Valley where the next mid level trough resides. The increase in moisture and forcing will lead to sea breeze driven activity early today then more of a scattered nature later in the day. The highest pops associated with this system/setup occur during the day Saturday and Sunday when likely values are in place. The favored times are late morning and afternoons/evenings. There is a marginal risk for severe western areas today but otherwise the system...meandering in nature offers little in the way of shear and thus organized storms.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Heat and humidity will build and heat indices should exceed 100 degrees through Monday. While actual temperatures almost can't reach values of a few weeks ago due to the continuing loss of daylight dewpoints reminiscent of a few weeks ago have returned and uncomfortable heat indices will develop for today through the weekend. No heat related headlines are anticipated.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Guidance has shifted considerably from just a day or so ago when the heat mentioned in KEY MESSAGE 2 was supposed to continue. Now it appears the strong ridge (heat dome) remains to the west and our area remains under a cooler NE flow. Highs still formidable just under 90 degrees will be tempered by lows in the middle 60s or so. Kinda similar to the past few days.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR generally expected through most of the period. Some stratus will continue to impact LBT over the next couple of hours. Showers and storms develop this afternoon along the sea breeze and gradually move inland, but will be of low enough coverage to maintain PROB30s, lower chance at ILM.

Extended Outlook... Although VFR conditions will prevail, there is increasing potential for pop-up showers and thunderstorms bringing brief MVFR/IFR conditions, especially Saturday and Sunday. There is also a low potential for late night/early morning stratus or ground fog, particularly affecting KLBT and KFLO Saturday and Sunday.

MARINE

Tonight through Wednesday...Very modest southwest winds will be in place through the weekend as a sprawling relatively weak system moves across. By early next week after a day or two of a weak pressure pattern a better defined NE flow develops. A decent surge with the arrival of the NE flow could warrant a close look at a small craft advisory but confidence especially this far out with surges is almost nil.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.