textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made with the latest forecast update. Aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAF set.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs Wednesday and Thursday.

- 2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far settles in this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs Wednesday and Thursday.

Latest surface analysis shows a surface high lingering near the LA/MS/AL Gulf coast. This surface ridge is associated with the upper ridge located in basically the same place. This ridge will gradually poke northward towards ArkLaMiss by Wednesday, before elongating into the Southeast and western Atlantic by Thursday. Upper heights and thicknesses soar, allowing for widespread subsidence, which keeps the forecast dry.

500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology along KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in at least the mid 80s expected today through Friday. Wednesday and Thursday appear to be the warmest, where 90 degrees cannot be ruled out in several inland areas. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here.

Current forecast vs. records: Wednesday, October 14: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 87F (Record of 89F in 1928) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 83F (86F in 1959) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (88F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 89F (91F in 1928)

Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 88F (Record of 88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 88F (89F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 89F (91F in 1919)

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far settles in this weekend.

Trade in the shorts and sweat towels for flannel and boots, for the famous fall cold front is coming. A trough out of Alberta and Saskatchewan amplifies by the time it enters the upper Midwest Thursday, reaching the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region by Friday. The jet streak bottoms out near the NC/VA as it sweeps through Friday night, sending the heat ridge offshore for good, and sweeping a cold front through the area. Guidance continues to show an overall lack of moisture with this front, and should mostly manifest in mid-to-high cloud cover Friday evening. Perhaps the far northern and eastern portions of the forecast area will try to squeeze out some drizzle during Friday night lights. Westerly winds pick up ahead of the front, veering to the north after the front moves through in the middle of the night. Don't be surprised if the wind stirs you awake Friday night into Saturday morning. CAA already kicks off, with lows in the low-to-mid 50s.

By Saturday, the cold front has raced well offshore, while Canadian air blows into the area like the leaves themselves. Saturday looks cool and blustery, with highs only in the mid- to-upper 60s with a stiff wind out of the north that may gust up to 30 mph at times.

Open up the windows Saturday night, as winds will come down to 5-10 mph overnight, and crispy lows in the lower 40s inland to near 50 at the coast will complement boiled peanuts simmering in the slow cooker.

Highs Sunday look nearly identical, with winds only gusting up to 15-18 mph this time. Welcome to true, Southern fall.

AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Some patchy ground fog is possible through 13Z but confidence is not high enough to include in the forecast at this time. VFR conditions will be the rule through the remainder with some batches of high clouds at times. Otherwise light winds are expected with a weak pressure gradient in place. Some patchy fog is possible again, generally after 08Z Wed.

Extended Outlook...VFR is expected to prevail through Saturday. Only exception could be some MVFR ground fog in the early mornings Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Benign winds and seas through at least Friday morning. Gentle breeze out of the NE veer to the SW by late tonight, remaining that way through Friday morning. Seas at 1-3 ft at first, improving even more to 1-2 ft by Wednesday morning. Forecast stays dry.

Pattern starts to change throughout the day Friday, as gradient winds increase significantly ahead of a cold front. Moderate breeze builds in by midday Friday, becoming a fresh to strong breeze by the evening right before the front passes. Front moves through overnight Friday night, allowing the winds to quickly veer to the N, gradually veering even more to the NE throughout the day Saturday. Seas peak Saturday, ranging from 3-5 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, to 6-8 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.

Small Craft Advisory conditions appear to be a slam dunk Friday night into Saturday. Certainly cannot rule out gale conditions, particularly over the offshore waters 20-60 nm out.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.