textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Daytime temperatures have been lowered for both Monday and Tuesday due to strong CAD wedge in place.

Updated 18Z TAF aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local coastal waters tonight through Tuesday morning.

2) Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to the week.

3) Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local coastal waters tonight through Tuesday morning.

See Marine section for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to the week.

Cold air damming in place Monday with cloudy skies will lead to well below normal temps for the start of meteorological spring, with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s, closer to NBM10th percentile and MET guidance. Wedge looks to maintain its hold for most of the day Tuesday, and have undercut blended guidance on daytime temps with wedge and low clouds lingering. Highs Tuesday are currently forecasted in the low 60s inland with mid 60s near the coast, but even these might be a bit too warm still (particularly inland). Could see a few light showers Tuesday and coastal trough attempts to move inland with weakening of the wedge, but pops and QPF remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

With CAD wedge dissipating Tuesday night and Bermuda high establishing itself, temps Wednesday will be much warmer than the start of the week with highs in the upper 70s. Highs around 80F forecasted for Thursday through next weekend, with temps along the immediate coast 10F or so lower thanks to sea breeze. Lows each night will be only slightly cooler than typical high temps for early March. Subsidence from mid level ridge will limit pops Thursday, with only slight chance in the afternoon for southern counties. Ridge influence weakens late week into the weekend, and will see chance pops each afternoon as a bit of surface instability combines with diurnal heating and sea breeze to produce a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions are expected into tonight until NE flow sets in and CIGS develop AOA 1 KFT in the 6-9Z timeframe. It's possible cigs could fall below 1 KFT before sunrise but daytime heating should allow them to rise above 1 KFT before the end of the valid taf period, should this occur.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are likely to continue into Tuesday night before high pressure shifts off the coast and allows VFR to dominate through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Monday...Light winds from the SW quadrant this afternoon will become NE overnight and increase to 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT for Monday. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will build overnight to 4 to 6 FT by Monday morning with 7 footers possible nearer 20 NM Monday. Small Craft Advisory remains up, beginning at 06Z tonight.

Monday Night through Friday...Marine conditions will be improving Monday night as winds and seas lower, with sub- advisory conditions forecasted by Tuesday morning. Therefore, the end time of the Small Craft Advisory has been trimmed back to 12z Tuesday. Northeast winds Tuesday will shift to light onshore winds Tuesday night, veering further to southerly winds Wednesday night through the end of the week. Seas 3-5 ft Tuesday and Tuesday night, lower to 3-4 ft for Wednesday through Friday, primarily as SE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.