textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Extreme Heat Watch for Tuesday has been upgraded to a Warning for coastal counties, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the rest of the CWA.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Hot and humid conditions through end of the week.

2) Unsettled weather Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and humid conditions through end of the week.

Prolonged period of hot and humid conditions continues this week, with potential for Heat Advisories/Warnings each day through (at least) Thursday. A dry front is expected to move into our area late tonight/early Tuesday - will mostly be a wind shift at the surface as air mass behind the front is not that different than in front. Slight troughing with the front will aid in temps a couple degrees lower inland Tuesday compared to today, and latest forecast has Heat Advisory conditions (heat indices >= 105F) for inland counties and Extreme Heat Warning conditions (heat indices >=110F) for coastal counties tomorrow. Brief relief may be possible tomorrow afternoon, mainly for Cape Fear region, as a weak low develops along the front and aids in some scattered convection development. Front lingers near the coast through midweek before dissipating. Hot and humid airmass remains through end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather Friday into next weekend.

A deep upper trough is forecasted to develop over the eastern US Friday into the weekend, with several impulses moving around the base of the trough. At the surface, a front moves into the area Friday into Saturday before slowing down, with several waves developing along the front. Combination will lead to elevated rain chances Friday through Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR with a few mid to high level clouds. Isolated convection possible this afternoon, mainly near the coast, but have kept out of TAFs. Relatively light south-southwest winds through tonight turn northwesterly Tuesday behind a dry frontal passage.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

MARINE

Through Saturday...Benign marine conditions expected through Saturday. Southwest winds 10-15 kts into tonight will weaken slightly Tuesday as a front approaches from the west before stalling near the coast. Stalled front will keep winds more variable Wednesday before south-southwest winds redevelop for Thursday into the weekend. Seas linger in the 2-3 ft range through forecast period, with 4 footers entering the 20-60nm waters Saturday, combination of wind wave and SE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ087-096. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096- 099-105>110. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for NCZ099- 105>110. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024. Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ032- 033-039-054>056-058-059. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for SCZ039- 054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.