textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The risk for coastal flooding will likely extend through at least Sunday morning's high tide. Forecast low temperatures tonight have been nudged down a couple of degrees with some inland areas now expected to fall into the 40s for the first time since early June.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Coastal hazards continue due to the strengthening Nor'easter offshore.

2) A dry Canadian airmass will bring the coolest temperatures since early June.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Coastal hazards continue due to the strengthening Nor'easter offshore.

Strong northeast winds over the past several days have banked two feet of water up against the coastline. This persistent tidal anomaly should create multiple rounds of minor coastal flooding during each high tide through at least Sunday morning. Water levels are forecast to exceed minor flood stage by up to 0.6 feet at Myrtle Beach, up to 0.8 feet at Wrightsville Beach, and 0.5 feet on the river in downtown Wilmington.

In addition, large 11 to 12 second east-northeasterly swell will bring a high risk of rip currents today at the Pender and New Hanover county beaches. The shallow water on Frying Pan Shoals is sapping this swell of much of its amplitude and is shielding Brunswick County plus the Grand Strand from the worst of its effects.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A dry Canadian airmass will bring the coolest temperatures since early June.

Sub-1000 mb low pressure centered a little over 200 miles east of the Outer Banks should move north over the next 24-36 hours. Rain chances should fall to zero by sunrise and decreasing cloud cover is expected, especially west of the Cape Fear area, as dry Canadian air spreads southward into the region. Highs should remain in the 70s through Saturday. The last time Wilmington had four or more consecutive days where temperatures stayed below 80 ended ended May 5th. (Same statistic for Myrtle Beach shows May 10th)

Even more amazing will be the nighttime temperatures: now expected to reach the 40s for some inland areas tonight. This should be the coolest night since June 3rd when inland areas similarly reached the upper 40s with lower 50s along the coast. The airmass will begin to moderate Saturday night and Sunday but temperatures and humidity should remain well below normal through the period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR stratus ceilings around 2500 feet AGL may linger through 08-09z, but a trend toward VFR conditions is expected to develop and persist through the day. Strong low pressure centered well east of the NC coast will lift north and away from the area today through Saturday. Breezy north winds could gust to around 25 knots at times this morning. Winds could gradually diminish to less than 5 knots tonight under mainly clear skies.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions should prevail through early next week. There is a low chance of morning ground fog Tuesday as shallow Atlantic moisture returns onshore.

MARINE

The highest wind gusts of this storm system (39 kt at the CORMP's 41038 buoy, 37 kt at Frying Pan Shoals buoy, 33 kt at Wrightsville Beach) have likely already occurred and a slow trend toward improving marine weather conditions will begin today. Deepening low pressure centered a little over 200 miles east of the Outer Banks already has a pressure below 1000 millibars and should drift north over the next 24-36 hours east of the Delaware and NJ coast.

A few more gusts to gale force (34 kt) are possible within the Cape Fear area coastal waters through 6 AM. Assuming the warning can come down then, it will be replaced by a Small Craft Advisory that may continue through Saturday morning for a large 11-12 second east-northeasterly swell. The South Carolina coastal waters may be in the clear by late this afternoon as the majority of the swell is being blocked by shoaling on the shallow water of Frying Pan Shoals.

After a fall-like Saturday and Sunday, a weak front may push south across the area Sunday night, stalling nearby through Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 AM EDT early this morning for AMZ250-252- 280-284. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254- 256.