textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain chances returning during the late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain chances returning during the late week.

Mid level ridging which is situated to the south with a band of westerlies to the north is providing a cool reprieve from relentless weeks of heat as most temperatures are already well into the 60s this morning. The pattern will slowly shift in the days ahead to more unsettled as the ridge gives way to a moist southwest flow. The weekend is especially looking unsettled and this is where the highest pops reside. Temperatures will slowly revert to highs in the middle 80s to the lower 90s...depending on the moisture extent with lows increasing into the lower to middle 70s.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions thru most, if not all, of the 12Z TAF period. More low-level moisture tonight could lead to some fog/low clouds late, mainly at the inland terminals, but will address that with later TAFs.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning in convection at times Thursday through the weekend.

MARINE

A modest southeast flow will shift further to southwest in a day or two and remain in place as the southeast returns to an unsettled pattern. Synoptic features remain weak in the middle of September outside of any thunderstorms so wind speeds should be 10-15 knots and seas 2-4 feet. No headlines are expected.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.