textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

18z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonable warmth, marine fog, and nighttime fog over land will define the next several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonable warmth, marine fog, and nighttime fog over land will define the next several days.

Persistent forecast in play through early next week courtesy of Bermuda high pressure providing continued advection of warm, moist air. Inland temps in the low 80s into the middle of next week, with afternoon sea breeze keeping the immediate coastline in the low to mid 70s. Low temps each night around 60F. These temperatures are more representative of early May versus early March. The next couple of days will remain dry due to mid level ridging aloft. Afternoon thunderstorms will be possible Sunday through Tuesday, due to daytime heating and sea breeze, as the subsidence aloft weakens.

Dense fog will be possible each night and morning into early next week due to dewpoints in the 60s and high pressure keeping winds relatively light. High dewpoints will also contribute to periods dense sea fog over the coastal waters each day into next week, which will impact navigation and may move onshore and impact coastal areas, particularly Brunswick county.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Predominantly VFR into this evening. Expect another night like last night, with widespread fog developing overnight. Fog could easily become dense, and currently forecasting LIFR/VLIFR conditions for local TAF terminals for late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Conditions will improve slowly after sunrise, with an exception of sea fog potentially keeping flight restrictions in place at MYR and CRE through late morning. South-southwest winds around 10 kts in place through tomorrow, with calm winds tonight.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period, but periods of fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions and sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals through early next week.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Light southerly winds and seas 2-3 ft remain in place through Friday with Bermuda high pressure dominating the forecast. Seas primarily a ESE 10 sec swell. The main concern for local coastal waters is the potential for dense sea fog tonight into tomorrow.

Friday Night through Tuesday...Sub-SCA conditions continue this weekend through early next week with wide Bermuda high pressure centered well off to the east. Result is persistent S to SW over the coastal waters, averaging 10- 15 kt but at times even lower than that. Seas steady at 2-4 ft, a large contribution of which is a 9-10 second ESE swell component. Sea fog will remain a concern with high dewpoint air flowing over cooler waters, and will be handled with marine Dense Fog Advisories as visibilities will fall below 1 NM at times.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.