textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Gale Watch is now in effect for Saturday. Updated aviation discussion for 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record highs possible Friday, especially inland.

2) Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

3) Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday into Sunday.

4) Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record highs possible Friday, especially inland.

Southwesterly flow between offshore high pressure and an approaching cold front will lead to good WAA. Forecast soundings show dry adiabatic lapse rates through a good 5kft where the air will still be about 12C. This easily supports temperatures in the low 80s, the late March sun then adding at least 5 degrees more of surface heating for mid to upper 80s area-wide save for the beaches.

March 27 Record Highs: Florence, SC: 89 in 2021 Lumberton, NC: 87 in 1950 & 1949 Wilmington, NC: 87 in 2020 North Myrtle Beach, SC: 80 in 1944

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

Dry/breezy conditions Saturday will likely bring an enhanced fire danger, especially given the expectation of little rainfall with the cold frontal passage Friday night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous marine conditions expected Saturday into Sunday.

See the Marine section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

Surface high pressure will build in from the north Saturday night leading to fairly light winds and with minimal sky cover, especially inland, conditions should be pretty good for some radiational cooling. Thus, we have leaned toward the cooler model guidance, especially inland where mid 30s are most likely with even a low risk of freezing temperatures in the normally colder spots. The extent of the dry air also is a bit in question and thus there is low confidence in a significant/widespread frost. Our greatest confidence at this time is for patchy frost over Pender County.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR to continue through most of the period. High pressure will shift further and further off the East Coast while a cold front approaches from the west. This will keep winds south to southwesterly. Dewpoints will reach the low 60s on Friday and sea fog may start to develop. This could start to lead to lowered cigs or vsbys at MYR/CRE especially as afternoon heating yields a seabreeze that turns the flow more onshore.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR conditions through late Friday with the possibility of sea fog impacting coastal terminals. The next cold front should reach the area Friday night accompanied by a substantial wind shift, lowered CIGs, and possible thunderstorms. VFR returns behind the front.

MARINE

Through Friday... Winds remain southwesterly between offshore high pressure and a front approaching from the west. The approach of the boundary will ramp up wind speeds as Friday progresses (headlines being handled by the extended forecaster, who's discussion follows) and also be raising dewpoints just above SSTs allowing for at least partial coverage/development of sea fog. Guidance isn't hitting the drop in visibility too hard so while fog remains in the forecast a DFA is not anticipated.

Friday night through Tuesday... A Gale Watch is now in effect from late Friday night through Saturday mid aftn due to 50-60% confidence in frequent gusts to 34 kt in the CAA northerly surge following a sharp cold fropa. Lingering SCA conditions may linger into Sunday, before marine conditions greatly improve for early to mid next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Watch from late Friday night through Saturday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.