textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to previous forecast thinking. Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

2) Unsettled weather may return this weekend but confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...No impactful weather this week with high pressure keeping the region dry and seasonable.

Modified Canadian High pressure centered north of the area under broad mid-level troughing will keep the region dry through at least Fri. Temperatures slightly below normal today return near normal Wed through the end of the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unsettled weather may return this weekend but confidence is low.

Shower and thunderstorm chances may increase this weekend, but uncertainty remains high. The area of potential tropical development highlighted by NHC in the Gulf will play a key role in determining how much rain the local area receives and when this occurs. Regardless of any development of the system (which all of the reliable guidance currently shows remaining well west of the area), there will be a large swath of tropical moisture spreading north over the Southeast late in the week. This moisture, coupled with the remains of a surface boundary moving north into the region could lead to showers and thunderstorms this weekend. However, the lack of confidence in details makes the day 5-7 forecast extremely difficult at this time and changes, possibly significant, should be anticipated.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

All sites are currently VFR and expect this will continue through the valid TAF period. Some of the guidance is showing MVFR or even IFR developing at FLO/LBT prior to the arrival of the cool/dry surge. Currently there is an abundance of low level moisture along with reports of MVFR/IFR conditions, so some restrictions are plausible. Have included a few hours of MVFR prior to the arrival of the surge for inland terminals, but confidence is low. Would not be shocked to see VFR conditions continue.

Biggest issue today will be gradient winds out of the north- northeast from mid-morning through late afternoon. Gusts around 20 kt will be possible with a little bit of heating/mixing. Enhanced winds will start to weaken late afternoon with loss of heating.

Extended Outlook...VFR through at least Friday evening, outside of any patchy morning fog. Flight restrictions may return Saturday, but confidence is low.

MARINE

Northeast flow starting to increase based on latest buoy reports. This trend will continue today with speeds peaking around 25 kt today before gradually starting to decrease later tonight into Wed. Some gale force gusts are possible, especially across the waters from 20-60nm, but not enough to warrant a gale warning for any zone. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the nearshore waters. The current end time of 3AM EDT Wed may be a bit generous and it's possible the hazard is cancelled early.

Northeast flow continues all week, but with a relaxed gradient allowing speeds to drop under 15 kt by Wed night and to 10 kt or less Thu/Fri. Low confidence for the weekend, but there is potential for another round of headlines with enhancement of northeast flow. A lot will depend on the evolution of the system in the Gulf; something to watch in subsequent forecast updates.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252- 254-256.