textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussion updated for 12Z TAFS.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated rain chances expected through Tuesday with isolated strong to severe storms possible Monday afternoon and evening. Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

2) Warm weather returns late week as a ridge builds over the Southeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Elevated rain chances expected through Tuesday with isolated strong to severe storms possible Monday afternoon and evening. Near to slightly below normal temperatures expected through Tuesday.

The front will stall over the southeast with a closed low aloft and periodic waves of mid-level energy pushing through. Depending on where these ingredients come together, afternoon/evening storm coverage will be enhanced near the boundary. For now, resolutions have this boundary nearby but ultimately to our south. Should the boundary nudge north there could be an isolated damaging wind and flooding threat for our NE SC areas closest to the boundary. Conditions look less conducive for severe weather Tuesday as the boundary is pushed further south due to building high pressure.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warm weather returns late week as a ridge builds over the Southeast.

A warming trend begins Wednesday as a ridge builds over the Southeast, temperatures rising back above normal. As heat and humidity builds through the latter half of the week, apparent temperatures may rise to or above 105 degrees. Rain chances don't start to recover until the weekend so there will be little to disrupt daytime heating.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mainly VFR this morning with a few pockets of MVFR/IFR cigs to continue through the day. Showers/storms again likely this aftn/evening, with IFR VSBYs due to heavy rain and gusty winds possible. Moderate confidence in low stratus developing inland overnight tonight as rain chances decrease.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions into Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE

Light/variable winds should become more E/NE behind a cold front, speeds ~10kts and seas ~2-4 ft. Winds will come around to the WSW late Wednesday with the PG increasing as a disturbance passes to the north, wind speeds increasing to 10-15 kts with gusts to 20 kts starting Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.