textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory has been issued for overnight into early Wednesday afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm with increasing rain chances on Wednesday.

2) Dry and relatively cooler Thursday and Friday but warming into the weekend with increasing rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm with increasing rain chances on Wednesday.

A cold front will move through the area Wednesday and Wednesday night. Moisture and forcing both look relatively weak here, bringing only light rain that should bring accumulations of only up to a quarter of an inch at best. Wednesday's high temperatures still remain 8-10 degrees above seasonal norms, but cloud cover means that they won't get quite as warm as they got today. Elsewhere, light sea fog or mist possible at the coast, particularly tonight into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and relatively cooler Thursday and Friday but warming into the weekend with increasing rain chances early next week.

High pressure will build down from the NW Wed night into Thursday with dry and relatively cooler but seasonable weather Thurs into Fri. A coastal trough/warm front will produce increasing lift late Sat into Sun with increasing rain chances. Greater chc of rain will come late Sun into Mon as a storm system tracks across the Gulf coast states. Still too early to predict just how much rain we will get through early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A brief period of gusty SWLY winds of 15-20 kts is possible during peak heating(18-22Z) before diminishing towards sunset. Overnight, LLWS is expected at all TAF sites as a 40-50 kt WSW LLJ overspreads the area.

Intermittent sea fog may impact the coastal terminals tonight into early Wednesday. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail through 12z Wednesday.

A cold front and associated band of showers will move west to east across the area Wednesday morning into the afternoon, bringing IFR to MVFR restrictions through 18z.

Extended Forecast...Showers will move offshore late Wednesday afternoon into early evening, with a return to VFR conditions at all TAF sites around 00z Thursday.

Dry, VFR conditions are expected to dominate through Friday. Flight restrictions are expected to develop across the area Saturday into Sunday as low pressure tracks east across the Deep South and Southeast US.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Gradient winds out of the southwest increase ahead of a cold front. Gusts up to 25 kts expected right along a line that extends roughly 20 nm offshore, prompting a Small Craft Advisory that kicks in at 1 AM EST tonight, continuing until 1 PM EST Wednesday afternoon. Seas get up to 3-5 ft at the peak of the wind wave gradient, potentially up to 6 ft out 20 nm from shore from Little River Inlet, SC to Cape Fear, NC. The front itself starts moving through the waters Wednesday afternoon, where a veering wind shift to the northwest will occur, decreasing the speeds to around 10 kts. Seas also come down slightly towards 2-4 ft.

Wednesday night through Sunday...NW to N winds will develop as high pressure builds down behind a cold front Wed night into Thurs. May see some wind gusts up to 25 kts. Winds and seas will diminish through Thurs aftn with seas dropping from 2 to 4 ft down to less than 3 ft Thurs night through Sat. Winds and seas will increase again Sat night into Sun as next storm system moves across the Gulf Coast states.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.