textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAFs. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 7 AM EST.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Cold Air Damming Wedge Breaks, Creating a Warmer Tuesday.

2)Temperatures well above normal from Wednesday onward.

3)Widespread marine fog possible Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold Air Damming Wedge Breaks, Creating a Warmer Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... As we approach 1 AM EST at the time of this typing, the cold air damming (CAD) wedge still has a firm hold on the area, on account of the northeasterly flow and the low cloud cover. This trend will hold on throughout the morning. But as high pressure to the north pushes offshore today, it will cut off the northeasterly flow, and winds will develop a more onshore component to the ESE. Cloud cover starts to break apart as a result, allowing springtime sunshine to creep in early this afternoon. Temperatures will warm up nicely into the mid- to-upper 60s, and some might even hit 70 degrees. More warming on the way...

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures well above normal from Wednesday onward.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Mid level ridge on Wednesday over FL and Bahamas. Initially this feature will be somewhat subdued but by Thursday it's anticyclonic flow will have expanded north to the Outer Banks. At the surface will be a summer-like Bermuda High. The refuting warm and moist advection will send temperatures well above normal, and this setup does not look to change appreciably for the remainder of the period. Expecting a long duration spell of unseasonable warmth and rain-free conditions. Dewpoints will be in the 60s from Thursday onward and sea fog should develop. Southerly flow means that the fog should have the best chance of affecting the beaches of Brunswick County but a healthy seabreeze means that east facing beaches could occasionally see lowered temperatures and visibility. The warm temperatures and deep mixing should preclude much inland penetration though, even along Brunswick County's coast. Wednesday appears the transition day with respect to fog, which should not be as established, widespread, nor as dense as the days the follow.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Widespread marine fog possible Wednesday through Saturday.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Details below in the marine section.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

MVFR to open the 12Z TAF period. Northeasterly winds and ceilings will continue through the AM hours. KILM may even dip down towards IFR ceilings for an hour or two between now and 14Z. Good news is that the wedge starts to break around midday, and winds will start to veer towards the ESE. Cloud cover starts opening up, and we return back to VFR by 17-20Z. Winds calm soon after sunset this evening. After 06Z tonight, may have some significant fog build in leading up to 12Z Wednesday. Restrictions may dip down as low as LIFR, especially for the inland terminals.

Extended Forecast....Fog mixes out within an hour or two after sunrise Wednesday, allowing for a return to VFR. May see a similar pattern unfold each night through Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Northeasterly winds at 10-15 kts with occasional gusts up to 20 kts continue through this morning. Gradually, the cold air damming wedge will break, allowing for skies to clear out, and winds will veer to the ESE by late this afternoon, becoming more light and variable tonight. Seas at 3-5 ft decrease ever so slightly to 3-4 ft.

Wednesday through Saturday... The area will be under the influence of a Bermuda high for most of the period. This will keep winds out of the south and fairly light. A SE swell will be generated around this high, most of the energy remaining to our south but do expect some longer period waves along with the wind chop. Bigger story for mariners will be the development of sea fog. It could show up as early as Wednesday though dewpoints may not yet be high enough for it to be very widespread or dense. With the continued warm and moist advection this should change Thursday and the marine fog could be a well defined hazard and may persist for a few days.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.