textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. The risk for a widespread freeze continues to increase and now includes both Saturday night and Sunday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front on Thursday, followed by well-below normal temperatures over the weekend into early next week. Frost/freeze potential exists on multiple nights this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above normal temperatures will continue ahead of a cold front on Thursday, followed by well-below normal temperatures over the weekend into early next week. Frost/freeze potential exists on multiple nights this weekend.

Above-normal high temps will continue in southwest to west flow ahead of an approaching trough through Thursday. This trough in the jetstream will bring a series of cold fronts through late this week, ushering in much colder and drier air comparable to mid-January normal temps, which is climatologically the coldest part of Winter. The first front arriving on Thursday will result in breezy southwesterly winds turning westerly during the day, then eventually northwesterly Thursday night. This front will have very limited moisture to work with, keeping rain chances slim to none.

The next cold front arrives on Friday with considerably colder and drier air filtering in behind it, likely bringing nighttime lows well into the 30s away from the immediate coast. The risk for frost should be limited by both steady northwest winds through the night and increasingly dry air being brought in on those winds, but this will need to be monitored in case wind speeds drop low enough or dry air is slower to come in.

The cold air mass will be reinforced by high pressure northwest of the area, keeping north to northwest winds in place through the weekend and into early next week. This is expected to result in highs reaching only the mid-upper 50s and nighttime lows in the low- mid 30s, with chances for a widespread freeze increasing away from the immediate coast on Saturday night and Sunday night. North winds are still expected into early next week as high pressure remains northwest of the area, keeping well-below temperatures in place.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the 06Z TAF period. There is a very low risk for vsby reductions early this morning from shallow fog, but any restriction should be short-lived. Light and variable winds this morning will eventually become a steady SSW to SW at 5-10 kts after 16Z.

Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. Low chance for MVFR cigs Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front, but confidence remains low. Otherwise, VFR from Thursday into the weekend.

MARINE

Mostly benign marine conditions will continue through late today with southwest to west winds mostly 15 kts or less. SW to W winds should increase tonight ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front peaking Thursday afternoon. Although marginal, a brief Small Craft Advisory may be necessary due to frequent 25kt gusts Thursday afternoon into early Thursday night, mainly for the NC coastal waters. Winds will subside somewhat over Thursday night and remain mainly 10 to 20 kts Friday through Saturday night as they slowly veer from NW to N.

Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through today before increasing tonight. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-8 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. Seas will drop further as winds diminish Saturday through Sunday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through today with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor from Wednesday night through the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.