textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Each Day Over the Next Week, Bringing Welcomed Rainfall.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered Showers and Storms Possible Each Day Over the Next Week, Bringing Welcomed Rainfall.

Bermuda high pressure sticks around through at least Wednesday. Ample moisture gets pushed in throughout most of the work week, allowing precipitable water values to linger in the 1.8-2.0" range. Seabreeze convection will get triggered each afternoon, gradually pushing inland by the evening and then eventually falling down into the overnight hours. Showers and storms could be aided at times by shortwaves spinning off of the Bermuda ridge. This creates a more favorable environment for rainfall totals up to 2-3 inches, locally higher amounts likely in some spots. While this pattern is not a drought buster, it certainly looks like the most favorable pattern we've seen in months. A drought "denter," perhaps.

Rainfall could be slightly less widespread Tuesday and Wednesday, with some drier air trying to slip into the mid-levels. This gap closes back in Thursday and Friday ahead of the next frontal system.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A frontal boundary stalled over inland zones in the presence of high moisture content both bound to keep the forecast period quite active. This will mean that most of the period will at least feature prob30 groups for showers and storms. The exception will be the early part of tonight where the coast remains mostly rain-free even as FLO and LBT deal with showers lingering (probably no storms though) as instability is slow to wane and the front is much closer to the inland airports. Vsby restrictions (albeit minor) return late tonight along the coast as convergence-borne showers move ashore. This activity will increase in coverage and strength (and thus vsby lowering) as Sunday progresses, and increasingly so inland as the seabreeze and frontal convergence maximize by afternoon.

Extended Forecast...Moderate to high confidence in at least MVFR cigs (and to a lesser extent vsbys) each morning (mainly in the 08z- 12z timeframe at KLBT/KFLO), as well as from showers/storms (mainly in the aftn/eve).

MARINE

Through Sunday...High confidence in mainly benign, summer-like conditions due to prevailing Bermuda high pressure. Southerly winds will mostly be 15 kt or less, generally highest eastern/offshore portions near the Gulf Stream and closer to the coast due to the aftn/eve sea breeze. Waves will mainly consist of 3-5 foot southeast swells.

Sunday Night through Wednesday...Gentle to moderate breeze out of the SSW over the coastal waters out 20 nm, more of a moderate to fresh breeze over the offshore waters out 60 nm, veer slightly to the SW Tuesday and Wednesday. Seas remain locked in at 2-4 ft over the coastal waters, 4-5 ft over the offshore waters (sans a few 6 footers Sunday night into Monday morning). Outside of wind waves, look for the main SE swell at 6-8 seconds, and then a secondary ENE swell at 8-10 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.