textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for all of northeast SC and Robeson County, NC. Use caution during the morning commute.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Low visibilities less than a quarter mile will lead to dangerous driving conditions through this morning. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for areas most likely to be impacted, while patchy fog will be likely elsewhere. Drivers should slow down and use fog lights if available.

- 2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm.

- 3) Cold Air Damming Wedge Creates Chilly Start to the Week.

- 4) Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Significant Warmup by Wednesday, Continues All Week Long.

Better forcing comes into play Tuesday night, eroding the wedge for good this time. Suddenly, there is good vertical continuity in offshore ridging, accompanied with an old friend in the Bermuda high. Very warm temps on the way, easily going up into the mid-to- upper 70s Wednesday. This warmth is here to stick around through the rest of the week, giving the inland locales a chance to hit 80 degrees just about everyday from Thursday onward. Subsidence still appears to inhibit convection opportunities Thursday, but that appears to weaken more each day Friday through Sunday. Thermal profiles aren't that impressive with the lack of a larger synoptic setup, but there is enough heat to spark some instability. Enter the chances for scattered storms in the afternoon in typical spring/summer fashion. Pulse storms will be aided by the seabreeze, sponsored by healthy differential heating between land and sea. Get ready for the pollen pods to start opening up...

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

SC terminals + KLBT will battle dense fog tonight with IFR/LIFR likely through 13-14Z. KILM could have dense fog at times but it looks much less predominant here. TAFs will be adjusted if the trend changes but for now, dense fog should continue to spread towards the SC coast with some low CIGs possible. Light west winds after 14Z with VFR conditions returning. Towards the end of the period a cold front will push in from the north so expect a sharp shift in winds from W/SW to the NE ~10 kts with higher gusts and dropping CIGs.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely through midweek under a ridging high with VFr predominant through the latter half of the week amidst low rain chances.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Benign marine conditions during the day before a backdoor cold front drops down from the north late this evening. Winds will change from SW to NE rapidly with speeds increasing from ~8 kts to 15-20 kts. +25 kt gusts and 6 footers have lead to a Small Craft Advisory over our coastal waters through the end of the period and beyond.

Monday through Thursday...Small Craft Advisory in effect across all coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 2 AM EST Wednesday. Stiff northeasterly winds grip the waters Monday in a classic cold air damming wedge. Wouldn't be surprised to see winds gust up to 30 kts at times, with seas at 4-6 ft at the coast, 6-7 ft out 20 nm from shore. Gradient loosens Tuesday, as the wedge very slowly tries to break. Winds veer slightly to the ESE Tuesday afternoon, coming down to 5-10 kts. Seas are slow to react, but eventually come down below advisory thresholds Tuesday night. Winds continue to veer southeasterly and then southerly through Thursday, pumping warm air through the area. Seas linger right at 3-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ087. SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 2 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.