textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Early morning fog on land as well as periods of sea fog will continue to impact the area and coastal waters at times into Thursday morning.

2) Unseasonable warmth will transition to much cooler weather on Thursday as a stormy cold front moves through.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Early morning fog on land as well as periods of sea fog will continue to impact the area and coastal waters at times into Thursday morning.

Warm southwesterly flow will maintain a chance for sea fog each night through mid morning into Thursday morning. Sea fog may move onshore and impact coastal communities, especially portions of the Grand Strand and coastal Brunswick County. Light winds and mostly clear skies may also support radiation fog tonight, which could become dense in sheltered areas. An approaching cold front will bring an increase in winds on Wednesday which will continue through its passage on Thursday. These increased winds will significantly lower the risk for fog on land, although areas right along the coast may still see sea fog reduce visibilities until winds are high enough to mix out fog over the waters on Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unseasonable warmth will transition to much cooler weather on Thursday as a stormy cold front moves through.

Mid-upper ridging will amplify substantially over the western Atlantic on Wednesday, supporting much warmer temperatures than we have seen over the last several days. With strong deep-layer southwesterly to westerly flow in place, anomalously warm temperatures are anticipated amidst gusty southwest winds. In this unusual setup, highs are likely to reach or exceed the records for sites away from the immediate ocean, where mid-upper 80s are forecast. It is not out of the question that the warmest spots may briefly touch 90F. A strong sea breeze can be expected as well, but southwesterly flow will tend to keep this pinned near the coast of east-facing beaches.

The upper ridge responsible for our unseasonable warmth will move eastward away from the the Southeast while a cutoff low tracks across the South. This cutoff low will open up early Thurs with a amplified trough approaching and moving through on Thurs. This will push a strong cold front through on Thurs.

The high temp will come earlier on Thurs with temps dropping through the afternoon as flow transitions to cooler NW winds behind the front. The best instability will come earlier on Thurs as front moves through. This will give us a chc of a few thunderstorms, but the timing and mainly elevated instability should limit the strength of convective development. Overall rainfall amounts should be between a quarter and a half of an inch.

Cooler NW winds behind the front will produce falling temps through Thurs afternoon. Temps will start out near 70 and will down in the 50s by late afternoon and then the overnight low Thurs night will be a good 30 degrees cooler than previous nights with lows in the mid 30s most places. Temps will bounce back to seasonable levels on Fri with warming into the the weekend. An even stronger cold front should arrive Monday with unseasonably cold weather returning.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... South to southwest winds will prevail through the period with speeds increasing to 15-20 kts on Wednesday afternoon as a cold front draws closer and pressure gradient tightens. Seas will hold around 2-3 ft through most of the period before increasing Wednesday afternoon in tandem with the winds. A southeasterly 9 sec swell will dominate the wave spectrum through much of Wednesday, with southerly wind waves becoming dominant by late afternoon.

Wednesday night through Sunday...Winds will transition from gusty SW to NW behind strong cold front by late Thurs aftn into early evening and then northerly into Thurs night. The passage of the cold front will end the sea fog, but gusts reaching 25 kts pre and post FROPA with seas rising to 4 to 6 ft Wed night, will lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions.

Winds will diminish Fri into the weekend, but will pick up again, along with seas over the latter half of the weekend.

......................Tue Mar 10 ... Wed Mar 11

Thu Mar 12 Wilmington NC......... 88 in 1974 ... 86 in 2016 ... 87 in 1990 Lumberton NC.......... 87 in 1974 ... 87 in 1925 ... 85 in 1925 N. Myrtle Beach SC.... 76 in 2017 ... 82 in 1997 ... 80 in 1943 Florence SC........... 92 in 1974 ... 86 in 2015 ... 88 in 1990

Lumberton and Florence are currently forecast to break record highs on Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.