textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs. Surf forecast updated to reflect updated wave heights. High Surf Advisory lowered for Brunswick county. Although isolated 6 ft waves may still occur, the relatively short period of strong south flow limits confidence in 6-ft breakers materializing across the county beaches. Nevertheless, rough surf and strong rip currents are expected.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Isolated to scattered heavy rain persists at times into this afternoon. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible.

- 2) Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

- 3) Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Isolated to scattered heavy rain persists at times into this afternoon. A few areas could see flash flooding as a result, especially across coastal areas. Isolated tornadoes are possible.

- A Flood Watch remains in effect until 11 AM EDT this morning for Pender, New Hanover, Brunswick, Columbus, Horry, and Georgetown Counties.

Warm front has now cleared the forecast area, per dewpoint observations. A lackadaisical line of showers just behind the front has been sweeping from south to north across the area, currently making its way through the Pee Dee and NC coastal plain regions.

Admittedly, every piece of guidance I've looked at has been absolutely terrible in handling this setup. Warm FROPA was supposed to ignite instability and create a more convective environment earlier this evening, but that never materialized. I don't think I've seen a single flash of lightning over land, and there have only been a small handful of strikes over the waters 60-80 nm offshore. I believe the CAD wedge from earlier tonight won the battle over the warm front and kept in far more stability than models were showing. Even now after 2 AM EDT, the convective-allowing models are trying to blow up storms that are not represented on current radar trends, despite an overall increase in rain.

Spotty showers will continue this morning, while the stage is set for one more line of rain that will push through from west to east late this morning into this afternoon (said line is currently in eastern GA).

Here we sit again with the frustrating forecast uncertainty. On one hand, there certainly is enough moisture and forcing in the atmosphere to suggest high rainfall rates capable of flash flooding. Meanwhile, the environment is still capable of a tornado threat. Plenty of low LCLs to go around, SBCAPE will be on the rise after the sun rises, and 0-1 km SRH may push above 150 m2/s2 as this convective line pushes through. Yet on the other hand, guidance handling this event extremely poorly doesn't give me much confidence moving forward here. Will be curious to see how much the SBCIN and MLCIN holds on as the sun rises and this line moves through. The tornado and flooding threats still cannot be ignored, generally from 8 AM - 4 PM EDT today from west to east.

After this line moves through, dry air will start to break through the cloud cover. Forecast dries out this afternoon and evening. Lows tonight in the low-to-mid 60s. Dry forecast looks to dominate for much of this week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hazardous surf conditions and tidal flooding will continue throughout the weekend.

Hazards in effect:

- Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM EDT to 10 AM EDT this morning for the entire coastline from coastal Pender County, NC to Georgetown County, SC.

- Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM EDT to 1 PM EDT this morning for the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

- A High Risk for Rip Currents is in effect from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for all beaches along northeast SC and southeast NC.

No changes to the previous thinking regarding coastal impacts today. The increased onshore winds will yield rough surf and strong rip currents. Large breaking waves of 4 to 6 ft expected along the beaches in southeast NC. Wave-runup may also cause minor to moderate beach erosion, especially those beaches with a weakened shoreline structure with high tide. Rough surf may linger into Monday, but should improve as the winds become more favorable.

The winds coupled with the high astronomical tides during the next several high tide cycles may lead to minor coastal flooding into early next week along all area beaches and the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous marine conditions will continue through this weekend.

- A Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 2 AM EDT Monday for the coastal waters from Little River Inlet, SC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. This advisory is also in effect until 8 AM EDT Monday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet, SC out 20 nm.

See Marine section below for more detail.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Sub-VFR CIGs with intermittent VSBY restrictions in rain to 2-4 SM. By 15Z CIGs should have lifted to MVFR with another line of storms moving across the area in the afternoon. Southerly winds will become gusty, generally 20-25 kts. Skies will finally begin to break up from west to east behind the line through the afternoon as dry air moves into the area, with dry conditions after 00Z. Gusts come down by 01-03Z Monday.

Extended Outlook...VFR should return as dry air filters in late Sunday and prevail through Thursday.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Fresh to strong breeze out of the SSE will gradually veer to the S this morning, to SW this evening, to W by Monday morning. Once the advisories expire by Monday morning, winds will continue to improve to a moderate breeze out of the NW Monday afternoon, even further towards a gentle breeze out of the N by Monday night. Seas also quickly improve from 3-6 ft Monday to 2-4 ft Tuesday. Gentle breeze expected to continue through Thursday, becoming variable at times. Seas continue to improve towards 1-3 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for NCZ099-105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Flood Watch until 11 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054>056-058- 059. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for SCZ054- 056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256.