textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The frost/freeze products were allowed to expire at 9 AM.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Slightly below normal temperatures through tonight, with patchy frost possible in northern areas and traditional cold spots Friday morning.

2)Temperatures around 10 degrees above normal late this week drop to around 10 degrees below normal following the passage of a cold front Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Slightly below normal temperatures through tonight, with patchy frost possible in northern areas and traditional cold spots Friday morning.

Temperatures today will be about 10 degrees warmer than yesterday in the low 60s, just slightly below normal. One more cool night in store tonight with high pressure overhead and calm winds. Lows in the upper 30s/near 40F for most of the area. Traditional cold spots and northern parts of Bladen and Pender counties could see patchy frost Friday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures around 10 degrees above normal late this week drop to around 10 degrees below normal following the passage of a cold front Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... Southerly flow around the west side of elongated surface high combined with diurnal heating and weak mid-level subsidence will lead to temperatures around 10 degrees above normal this weekend. The warmth will persist into Mon, although increasing clouds ahead of the front may knock a few degrees off highs. Front arrives late Mon and may be accompanied by some weak convection. Confidence in any convection/rain is limited at this point. The parent low is weak, a clipper system crossing the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast, and deeper northwest flow aloft ahead of the front prevents any noteworthy moisture return. Given the warm nature of the air mass and at least some enhanced boundary layer moisture, cannot rule out a few weak showers. The bigger story will be the big temp swing pre and post front. Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s this weekend switching to highs struggling to hit 60 Tue and lows around 40 Tue night.

AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR. Few passing high clouds. Light winds, generally 7 kts or less, courtesy of high pressure overhead.

Extended Forecast...VFR

MARINE

Through Tonight... North-northeast winds 10-15 kts early today will weaken to 10 kts or less late this afternoon as another high pressure center moves overhead. Seas linger in the 2-4 ft range through Thursday night, combination of 9 sec E swell and NE wind wave.

Friday through Monday... Benign conditions through the weekend. Surface ridge axis over the waters Fri shifts southeast for Sat, resulting in weak southerly flow. Gradient remains poorly defined through the weekend with inland heating accounting for a slight bump in speeds during the afternoon and evening. Gradient tightens up Mon as a cold front approaches from the northwest, increasing speeds to a solid 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2-3 ft with occasional 4 ft through the weekend increase to 3-5 ft Mon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.