textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. Surf hazard headlines updated in conjunction with the issuance of the evening Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1.... Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

Surface low pressure well offshore of the North Carolina coast is expected to meander but gradually shift northward through midweek, keeping a tight pressure gradient in place. This will lead to continued cool and dry air, gusty north winds, and hazardous marine conditions. See the marine discussion for more details. Hazardous surf and high waves are also a concern, particularly for the New Hanover County coast. Late in the week, the low is expected to be shoved away from the mid-Atlantic coast as another strong high pressure system builds in, bringing another period of gusty north winds late in the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR conds thru the 00Z TAF period. The main concern remains gusty north to north-northeast winds, up to 20-25 kt at times, mainly near the coast. With surface winds diminishing and continued strong winds just off the surface through the first few thousand feet of the atmosphere, marginal LLWS is likely overnight.

Extended Outlook... A nor'easter well offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds into midweek, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week due to abundant dry air.

MARINE

A nor'easter off the North Carolina coast will gradually meander northward through midweek, with winds and seas gradually decreasing from tonight through Wednesday. Gale force gusts are expected to end across SC offshore waters by late tonight and across the NC offshore waters tomorrow night. In the coastal waters, Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated to linger into Tuesday morning across the SC coastal waters and gradually fade across the NC coastal waters on Wednesday as 6-ft seas ease away. As the nor'easter is shunted away from the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, another strong high pressure center is forecast to move in, tightening the pressure gradient again and bringing a renewed threat for hazardous marine conditions from late Friday into next weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for NCZ106-108. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Monday through Monday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Monday to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ280. Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Monday for AMZ284.