textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Patchy dense fog is possible this morning, mainly across SE NC, with improvement expected after 8AM. Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will be located well off of the DelMarva Coast next several days as will a ridge in the mid levels. Both anticyclones will be elongated SW to NE meaning they both extend an axis into the Southeastern U.S. Both progress/are pushed eastward on Friday as an upper low drops into the Great Lakes, a cold front approaching from our NW in tandem. Looks like a narrow line of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will push through Friday, tending to favor the afternoon hours. And while actual rain chances remain high the QPF prospects will be minimized by the line's quick transition offshore. Convective elements have trended north in successive REFS forecasts, indicating the potential for locally higher totals will also remain outside of the area.

AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Restrictions are expanding across the area with mainly IFR CIGs and fluctuating VSBYs from LIFR to IFR. Improvement should occur through the rest of the night into Wed morning. By the afternoon VFR should be well established with north winds becoming southerly at the coast. Fog is expected again Wed night.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR through at least Thursday, outside of fog/low stratus issues in the morning near sunrise. Look to have more organized flight restrictions Friday and Friday evening with the next round of showers and storms sweeping through the region from west to east. Forecast dries out for the weekend, but the morning fog threat may still remain (lower confidence there).

MARINE

Increasingly light onshore winds for the next few days as the high well to our northeast gradually drifts further out to sea off the DelMarva Coast. A cold front approaches Friday turning wind to the S Thursday night, the boundary itself slated for passage Friday night. Both the surge of high pressure and low level thermal advection post- FROPA look quite tempered and so not expecting any headlines. The veering flow will shorten dominant wave periods especially in the absence of much swell energy.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.