textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated with the 06Z TAF Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat through early next week, with above normal temperatures and increased humidity.

Humid conditions along with above normal temperatures will result in an extended period of heat impacts across the forecast area. A large H5 ridge centered north of the area will linger for a few days along with weak onshore flow supporting dewpoints into the lower 70s at times. This setup will result in Heat Indices at or above 105F for northern portions of southeast NC and most of southeast NC on Friday. The Heat Advisory continues for a portion of the area. The exception would be the coastal zones aided by relatively cooler ocean air, and the southern zones where dewpoints will be lower.

These conditions will persist and expand southward across the remaining zones during Saturday. Additionally, the Heat Index could approach 110F during Sunday and Monday afternoon. Ridging aloft is dented by passage of 5h trough to the north early next week. The flow aloft becomes more zonal, with impulses in the westerly flow aloft crossing the area. The weakened ridge would allow for a brief reprieve from the heat and open the door for daily rounds of showers and thunderstorms possibly by Sun but more likely Mon. Ridging aloft hangs around in some form through the end of the forecast period, but in a weaker state. However, until the ridge shows signs of weakening, rain chances will be limited given the dome in place and subsequent very dry column, especially above H85.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Generally VFR. Transient patchy MVFR fog is possible a few hours prior to daybreak, but the combination 8-10kt winds at the top of the boundary layer and dry just above the surface will work against any fog trying to develop. Brief period of 5SM are possible, but significant restrictions are unlikely.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog/low ceilings starting Sunday morning. Threat for afternoon and evening storms returns Monday and Tuesday.

MARINE

Surface high lingers north of the area today while weak low well off the Southeast coast drifts slowly south. The resulting light northerly flow this morning is quickly over powered by sea breeze influenced onshore flow. South-southeast winds today on the low end of the 10-15kt range ramp up for the weekend. The high shifts off the coast, leading to an extended period of southwest flow. Interior heating will lead to increases in southwest flow each afternoon/evening this weekend. Speeds increase a little more for Mon/Tue as the gradient tightens further, despite somewhat cooler inland temperatures. However, speeds will remain under 20 kt through Tue. Seas 2-3 ft through the weekend start to increase Mon, peaking 3-4 ft Tue due to prolonged southwest fetch.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 3-7...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-024-033-058-059. MARINE...None.