textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. Coastal Flood Advisory for downtown Wilmington has been cancelled.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat and scattered severe tstorm chances to continue again this afternoon.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat and scattered severe tstorm chances to continue again this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Scattered showers and storms moving into the area from the west may organize in to clusters that could produce damaging winds this afternoon into this evening. Before that, apparent temperatures will approach or exceed 105 degrees at times.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Relief from the heat is in sight with a cold frontal system dropping south across the area Sun followed by high pressure from the north early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...A cold front will drop into the area Sunday into Monday, providing for an increase in coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sunday and into Mon. Weak high pressure will ridge in from the north late Monday into midweek, providing a return to more typical temperatures for this time of year.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence exists for VFR to prevail through tomorrow morning as light but steady west to southwest winds continue overnight. Although atmospheric profiles generally do not support fog formation, rainfall from today's storms combined with a weakening low-level jet overnight may permit MVFR mist at the SC terminals between 09-12Z, but this carries low confidence. Otherwise, expect scattered to numerous showers and storms to develop tomorrow afternoon and evening as a cold front shifts southward. While PROB30 groups were used at this juncture, TEMPO groups are likely needed in future updates given the anticipated coverage, but refinement of the most likely timeframe for impacts is needed.

Extended Forecast...Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions through Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek on with a gradual return to summer- like conditions.

MARINE

SW winds of 10 to 15 KT with higher gusts are expected into Sunday with higher speeds possible outside 20 NM. As high pressure builds into the area late Monday into Tuesday, winds will diminish to 10 KT or less over much of the waters and become variable in nature. Seas look to peak at 4 FT within 20 NM and 5 FT outside 20 NM through Monday before subsiding for the middle of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.