textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1)A warmup that begins today will be ended by a cold front late Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A warmup that begins today will be ended by a cold front late Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure is currently elongated up and down a good portion of the East Coast. AS the week progresses the northern periphery of the anticyclone will be eroded by the northern branch/frontal boundaries. The remaining center of the high will be over the Gulf. The resulting light southerly flow will bring very warm temperatures, though not quite as warm as earlier in March when the high was off the East Coast. The mid level trough in the NE sharpens enough on Monday to push a largely moisture-deprived front through the area, it's moisture deprivation coming from the same displacement of the high from it's Bermuda position. The cooldown behind the boundary will be short-lived and generally only represent a return of climo temperatures Monday night through Tuesday night. The post-frontal high that builds in will in fact wind up more offshore meaning a warm and moist return flow into the Southeast.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. Something of a sea breeze has moved through with winds SE near the coast. Winds will become calm quickly after sunset. Into Friday, light north winds could be at the coast with south winds inland, and another sea breeze could move through ~18Z.

Extended Forecast... VFR.

MARINE

Through Friday... Weakening high pressure is elongated along much of the East Coast. The northern portion of the high will be eroded by frontal boundary tomorrow leaving behind a center that sinks into the Gulf. Winds become very light and variable in direction tonight into Friday after being gusty and out of the NE today. Wind waves will abate but the easterly swell will continue, becoming the dominant wave.

Saturday through Tuesday... Swell energy from the E/SE will continue to be the dominant wave early in the period. This gradually changes Sunday into Monday with the approach of a cold front, the boundary slated to pass across the waters later Monday. A healthy veer expected with FROPA from SW to NW or even N/NE. Winds and seas could both ramp up to advisory levels following the frontal passage.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.