textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAFs. Overall keys messages remain the same.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this weekend in association with an approaching cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this weekend in association with an approaching cold front.

Deep moisture over the area will interact with an approaching front and weak upper level support to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms into Monday. The event may transition into a more isentropically driven regime with time as the front sags south and SW flow aloft increases above the cool air Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms have developed with day time heating. All area terminals could be affected by MVFR or evening brief IFR conditions at times. Things become more uncertain overnight as some guidance shows CIGS AOB 1 KFT northern terminals. This is highly dependent on the position of the surface front. In areas where wind goes N-NE late this afternoon or evening, the probability of low cigs is higher. Showers chances will return all areas for Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Potential for MVFR/IFR Sunday, increasing Sunday night with IFR becoming more likely. IFR may linger for much of Monday before VFR returns Monday night.

MARINE

Light southerly flow continues today and may continue uninterrupted through Sun. There are now some indications the front that had been expected to sag south, will remain north and west of the waters, with the weak gradient keeping speeds 10 kt or less. The front now appears to move offshore Sun night with west and then northwest winds setting up. No real strong northerly push right behind the front with north to northeast flow not increasing until Mon night or Tue. Still expect to see headline conditions develop once the surge arrives, likely Mon night or Tuesday. Anticipate seeing a couple days worth of headlines.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.