textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 6 AM EDT Tuesday... Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

As of 2 AM EDT Tuesday... Marine Dense Fog Advisory issued for nearshore waters from Cape Fear southward through 10 AM EDT.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Early morning fog on land as well as periods of sea fog will continue to impact the area and coastal waters through Wednesday.

2) Unseasonable warmth, near record values Wednesday, will be brought to and end by a stormy cold front Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Early morning fog on land as well as periods of sea fog will continue to impact the area and coastal waters through Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Warm southwesterly flow will maintain a chance for sea fog each night through mid morning. Any developing sea fog may move onshore and impact coastal communities, especially portions of the Grand Strand and coastal Brunswick County. Light winds and mostly clear skies may also support radiation fog tonight. Fog may be dense at times. An approaching cold front will bring an increase in winds on Wednesday which will continue through its passage on Thursday. These increased winds will significantly lower the risk for fog on land, although areas right along the coast may still see sea fog reduce visibilities until winds are high enough to mix out fog over the waters.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Unseasonable warmth, near record values Wednesday, will be brought to and end by a stormy cold front Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... We've long been discussing the Bermuda High and how it's been an effective source of warmth and moisture for much of the East Coast. On Wednesday the flat mid level ridge that had been over the Gulf amplifies right into the Southeastern U.S. This will bring this warm spell to a peak and upper 80s look more than achievable away from the cooling effect of the ocean nearshore. See the climate section below for record highs that are in jeopardy. Upstream from the ridge will be a southern stream cutoff low that will open up into the wave as it moves from TX to LA, then partially phasing with a northern branch trough. This pushes a healthy cold front through on Thursday, the low level baroclinicity paired with moderate dynamics bringing a few rounds of showers and thunderstorms. And although the rain may be heavy at times the entire system translates off the coast quickly enough to cut down on what would be drought-releving QPF. The progression of the SPC Convective Outlooks would imply a small chance for a stronger storm locally though soundings are showing fairly lackluster instability. Cold air pours in Thursday night and some of the colder guidance hints at inland lows that could support a little frost, though the NBM is not as chilly. Seasonable weather is on tap for Friday and Friday night before return flow kicks back in and we trend towards mild weather. An even stronger cold front could arrive as soon as Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Debris clouds have limited the coverage of patchy fog this morning. Expect inland locations dealing with restrictions to quickly return to MVFR or VFR over the next couple of hours. The lone exception to this is CRE where sea fog is bringing IFR restrictions and is expected to continue through mid morning before winds increase mixing brings VFR. Some lingering showers may impact the Grand Strand terminals prior to 14Z, but no restrictions have been associated with these showers upstream. CIGs have remained VFR. VFR conditions continue for the afternoon. Shower chances this afternoon remain limited due to dry air aloft; cumulus may become deep enough for a brief shower over inland SC. Restrictions may return tonight, especially at the Grand Strand terminals where the potential for sea fog returns.

Extended Forecast... VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period, but periods of fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions. Sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals at times during this week.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Light southwesterly flow continues through tonight and into early Wednesday. Periodic sea fog continues to be the primary concern early this morning and again tonight. Seas remain around 2-3 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday... One last day of Bermuda High-induced southwesterly flow on Wednesday. Southwesterly flow will be slowly increasing but both wind and waves will stay sub-advisory. The rising dewpoints and the specter of sea fog will be the main hazard to navigation. The approach of a cold front tightens the gradient Wednesday night into early Thursday at which time SCA flags will have to be raised. Thursday's FROPA will bring a sharp veering of the still advisory-worthy winds while wave faces steepen and showers and storms become numerous. The only silver lining for mariners on an otherwise dicey Thursday will be that the sea fog will be pushed out of the area before quickly dissipating altogether by the plummeting dewpoints.

CLIMATE

Record Highs for the next few days: ................... Tue Mar 10 ... Wed Mar 11 ... Thu Mar 12 Wilmington NC......... 88 in 1974 ... 86 in 2016 ... 87 in 1990 Lumberton NC.......... 87 in 1974 ... 87 in 1925 ... 85 in 1925 N. Myrtle Beach SC.... 76 in 2017 ... 82 in 1997 ... 80 in 1943 Florence SC........... 92 in 1974 ... 86 in 2015 ... 88 in 1990

Lumberton and Florence are currently forecast to break record highs on Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for AMZ252-254- 256.