textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Low risk of a few severe storms today, mainly in SC.
2) Cooler and drier conditions to start the work week will be followed by warmer and eventually wetter conditions late week.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Low risk of a few severe storms today, mainly in SC.
A stalled frontal boundary over/near the area will combine with moderate instability and mid-level dry air to yield a low risk for a few severe storms this aftn/eve, mainly in SC. Damaging wind gusts will be the main severe wx hazard, although large hail and even excessive rainfall will also be possible.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Cooler and drier conditions to start the work week will be followed by warmer and eventually wetter conditions late week.
High pressure building in from the north Mon will bring cooler and drier air into the area to start the work week, especially inland. The onshore winds and higher moisture near the coast should keep some showers around, mainly near the SC coast. Humidity will then increase again late week as high pressure moves offshore allowing southerly winds to return ahead of another cold front.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
06Z Sun thru 06Z Mon: A cold front should stall out over or near the area through the period keeping it unsettled at times. Low clouds/fog likely this AM, especially inland at KLBT/KFLO where the best shot of seeing LIFR/VLIFR conds. Showers/storms are likely, mainly this aftn/eve.
06Z Mon thru Thu: Low to moderate risk for low clouds/fog late Sun night with mostly VFR conditions thereafter as drier high pressure builds from the north.
MARINE
Today through Thursday... A cold front will waver over or near the area today before shifting south tonight as high pressure builds to the north. A period of marginal Small Craft Advisory conditions could develop Mon/Tue due to the NE-E fetch and gusty winds. High pressure will build more over the area Wednesday with conditions improving before a return to a more typical summertime pattern ensues Thu with an aftn/eve wind surge near the coast due to the sea breeze.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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