textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory issued from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for all of northeast SC and southeast NC except for Georgetown County, Williamsburg County, and all of the coastal zones. Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring triple digit heat indices through Saturday. Heat Advisory in effect for most of the area Wednesday.

- 2) A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend, followed by cooler temperatures early next week.

Upper low spinning over Quebec will drop through New England and offshore over the weekend, allowing a mid-level trough to sink through the mid-Atlantic region. This will help push a cold front through the area from the north Saturday. Showers and storms expected to increase with this front sometime late Saturday through Sunday, before leveling off into early next week. Temperatures start to come down towards seasonal norms by Sunday, sticking around through next Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Predominantly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Very small chance of isolated convection inland this afternoon, but confidence is much too low to include in the TAFs. Winds go calm again by sunset this evening, remaining that way overnight. Expecting MVFR fog at the very least after 06Z tonight. Get the feeling that guidance is not being aggressive enough with fog, but didn't want to dive down too much yet. Wouldn't rule out IFR/LIFR fog heading towards sunrise Wednesday morning. Fog should mix out by 13-14Z. Seabreeze brings a SSE wind at 8-10 kts along the coast towards the end of the period.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Gentle to moderate breeze remains consistent through Friday, wagging back and forth between SW to SSW. Seas linger at 1-3 ft throughout this time. By Friday night, gradient winds increase slightly, becoming a solid moderate breeze, if not brief periods of a fresh breeze at times over the waters from Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet, SC from 20-60 nm offshore. This gradient comes back down by Saturday morning, going back to where they were before. Cold front will move through the waters Saturday night into Sunday morning, allowing winds to veer to the NE to ENE, but stick to the moderate breeze. Wave heights remain relatively unchanged, perhaps some 4 ft waves that try to sneak in about 60 nm offshore by late Sunday.

CLIMATE

Preliminarily, climatological summer of 2026 will go down as the THIRD HOTTEST summer in Wilmington's climate record that stretches back to 1874. The six warmest summers have all occurred this century.

#1 2011 81.8 deg F #2 2010 81.8 deg F #3 2026 81.7 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Additionally, August 2026 is also the second wettest August on record for Wilmington. There has been 15.01 inches recorded at ILM. This was done without the benefit of a tropical cyclone.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ087-096- 099-105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-058-059. MARINE...None.