textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Potential Record-Tying or Breaking High Temperatures Expected Saturday, With Fire Weather Hazards Continuing.

2) A strong cold frontal passage Sunday will bring a bit of rain but no drought relief as well as an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Potential Record-Tying or Breaking High Temperatures Expected Saturday, With Fire Weather Hazards Continuing.

Mid-level ridging nearly overhead Saturday, allowing for temperatures to get just a little bit warmer than Friday. Record-tying or breaking high temperatures expected away from the immediate coast as an active sea breeze should develop by noon and progress inland during the afternoon, reaching a Florence to Lumberton line prior to sunset. Here's a look at the current records across the area for Sat April 18:

Wilmington,NC (KILM)......93 in 1976 N Myrtle Beach,SC (KCRE)..89 in 1967 Florence,SC (KFLO)........93 in 1981 Lumberton,NC (KLBT).......91 in 1941

A little more moisture builds into the column Saturday, allowing for a few/sct cumulus clouds to pop up at 5000-8000 ft. Other than that, extremely dry weather continues. Diurnal mixing midday thru mid-afternoon will bring dewpoints down at the surface inland, resulting in RH values down to 25-30%. However, an active inland progressing sea breeze will push hier sfc dewpoints inland and should counter this mixing later in the aftn and into the evening. The severe to extreme drought across southeast NC and northeast SC combined with the continued dry conditions has resulted in the bi-state burn ban remaining in effect until further notice. Its getting to the point where even an improperly disregarded cigarette butt could ignite a fire.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A strong cold frontal passage Sunday will bring a bit of rain but no drought relief as well as an end to the unseasonably warm temperatures.

A potent cold front will move through Sunday bringing breezy conditions, scattered showers, and possibly isolated storms. Although deep layer shear looks sufficient enough to support organized convection, instability looks pretty minimal, and thus we are not concerned for any severe storms at this time. If there is to be one it looks like the best chance would be just inland of the SE NC coast during the late morning into very early afternoon just ahead of the frontal passage. Unfortunately, not expecting any drought relief with "high end" rain amounts only up to ~0.4", mainly across eastern portions of SE NC.

Expect below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, with some upper 30s not out of the question in the normally colder inland rural spots as suggested by the NBM 10th percentile values. Mon night looks like the most favorable period for practically worst case (i.e., NBM 1st percentile) temps in the mid 30s which would imply a risk for some frost so those with agricultural interests will want to pay close attention to the forecast during this period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR thru the 24 hr fcst period. FEW Altocu early this morning, otherwise SCT/BKN deck of thin/opaque cirrus will dominate this period. Thrown in from midday thru early this evening will be a FEW/SCT high Cu or low Altocu. Calm to SW winds AOB 5 kt to dominate this morning. By late morning and thru the aftn, the coastal terminals will see the development and inland progression of the sea breeze with gusty southerly winds dominating.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Sun morning. Isolated showers and thunderstorms may accompany a cold frontal passage from late morning thru late afternoon Sun. Northerly winds behind the front could gust to 25 knots Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail through Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SSW-SW winds at 10-15 kts expected through Sat evening, except pushing 15g20kt across the nearshore waters, ie within 10 nm of the coast, Sat aftn and evening due to an active sea breeze. Later Sat night, an active SSW-SW 25 to 30 kt LLJ (925mb) to develop, which will further increase winds overnight especially across the warmer ATL waters offshore. Seas generally in the 2 to 3 ft range this morning, building to 2 to 4 ft thru the day. And 3 to 5 ft tonight, with the hier end of this range occurring across the 20-60 nm out offshore waters. Short period wind driven waves to dominate the seas spectrum but with a continued ongoing and underlying 8+ second period SE swell.

Sunday through Wednesday night...Elevated SW winds expected Sun ahead of a cold front with gusts nearing SCA levels later Sun but not enough to warrant raising a headline, especially this far out. Could see some gale force gusts beyond 20 nm, especially with the showers/storms, but also not enough to warrant a Gale Watch at this juncture. High pressure building in quickly behind the front will lead to improving conditions later Sun night into Mon before another brief surge comes from the NE as the high builds to the north, but shouldn't reach SCA levels. The high will then shift offshore leading to a return of southerly winds Tue night which will increase a bit Wed as the pressure gradient tightens due to an inland trough and approaching cold front. Do not anticipate any marine headlines however.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.