textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated 00Z TAF discussion found below in the aviation section. Otherwise, no major changes coming down the track as we near 7 PM EST.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Light to occasionally moderate rain to bring minor drought releif tonight into Sunday.

2) Sunday night through Tuesday temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below normal, approaching record lows Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Light to occasionally moderate rain to bring minor drought relief tonight into Sunday.

A front stalled to our south will have a developing area of low pressure that moves along its length, the low's poorly defined center moving up the coast. And although forecast soundings show deep moisture, the mechanisms for lift are fairly weak keeping rainfall potential a bit lower than previously anticipated. Most of the rainfall comes tonight. We actually do have some healthy dynamics later Sunday but after the deep layer moisture has already moved offshore. Tnoight's lows slightly above climo whereas Sunday highs near normal but also early in the day as cold advection strengthens through the afternoon causing falling temps.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Sunday night through Tuesday's temperatures will run 10-15 degrees below normal, approaching record lows Monday night.

A surge of cold air pulled southward from the Great Lakes by the bombing cyclone off the Mid Atlantic coast will build across the eastern Carolinas Sunday through Monday. 850 mb temps should slip below 0C Sunday afternoon and may plunge to -8 to -10C by Monday morning. The SPC sounding climatology resource shows this is 8-9 degrees C below the 10th climatologically percentile for CHS and could approach daily observed lows for this time of year.

Breezy winds and deep boundary layer mixing should keep temps from plunging too low Sunday night with upper 20s to around 30 degrees forecast. Wind chills will dip into the upper teens.

The real impactful night temperature-wise should be Monday night/Tuesday morning. As winds drop off temperatures could plummet into the mid 20s or even a bit colder inland, approaching daily low temperatures at Florence

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Low pressure is stalled along a frontal boundary just south of the area bringing light variable or NE winds. As low pressure develops on the boundary and it moves up the coast there will be an increase in shower coverage and a lowering of CIGs to IFR or worse tonight. Drier air only pushes partly into the area tonight, shutting the rain off temporarily at KFLO and KLBT. Rain returns to being area-wide for the latter half of the night. A short window of opportunity will develop for thunder for coastal terminals Sunday morning depending on the track of the poorly defined low. Current thinking is that it stays offshore just enough for storms to do the same. Deep moisture shunts offshore by 15-18Z, shutting down the rain. Skies finally start to clear out from west to east by 21-22Z.

Extended Forecast...VFR should return Sunday night. Flight restrictions return in showers Thursday into Friday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Quiet in the very near term with front sagged to our south and no big push of high pressure behind it. Big changes for tomorrow though as low pressure moves up the coast along the boundary. Coastal waters may briefly see a few elevated thunderstorms late tonight into Sunday morning before the low accelerates to the NE, dragging strong cold front across the waters in a strengthening CAA regime. Have upgraded Gale Watch to Warning.

Sunday night through Thursday...Bombing low pressure off the Mid Atlantic coast Sunday night will create a large swath of strong northwest winds across the North and South Carolina coastal waters. Cold air pulled offshore will steepen low level lapse rates sufficiently for 35 knot winds to get transported down to the ocean surface in gusts. Accordingly, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning for Sunday night. The period of strongest winds is mostly likely to occur from around sunset Sunday evening through midnight, although 25 knot gusts may continue all the way through Monday night before finally diminishing with approaching high pressure from the west.

High pressure will cross Florida on Tuesday, accompanied by a relative minimum in wind speeds across the Carolinas. As winds turn southwest behind the departing high Tuesday night speeds will again increase and should reach 20-25 kt Wednesday and Thursday. Small Craft Advisories may be needed for this period.

CLIMATE

Record lows for Tuesday morning 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC 18 set in 1901 Lumberton NC 18 set in 1978 N. Myrtle Beach SC 26 last set in 2009 Florence SC 24 set in 1968

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from 4 PM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256.