textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for 00Z TAFs. Small craft advisory canceled at 7 PM.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Much-needed rainfall through this weekend.

2)Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly reaching record lows in SC Mon night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Much-needed rainfall through this weekend.

A storm system will continue to impact the region through the weekend bringing some much-needed rainfall to SE NC and NE SC. General most likely rain amounts are about 0.5-0.75" but locally higher amounts over 1" are possible, mainly across eastern SC and near the NC coast around Cape Fear.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Well below normal temps Sun night thru Tue night, possibly reaching record lows in SC Mon night.

A much colder air mass will build in behind a departing storm system early next week bringing well below normal temps to SE NC and NE SC. Highs Mon/Tue will generally be in the upper 40s with lows generally around 30 Sun night and mid to upper 20s Mon night. Record lows at Florence/N. Myrtle Beach could be reached Mon night (see Climate section below for details). In addition, min wind chills should be close to 20 degrees each night, especially Sun/Mon nights. However, the chance for reaching wind chills of 15 degrees or colder (i.e., Cold Weather Advisory criteria) is low.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Terminals VFR attm but sea fog lurking offshore and expected showers later tonight could bring restrictions to the terminals at times. Sea fog could affect CRE/MYR this evening and showers could affect all terminals after about 06Z with potential restrictions from lowering cigs in mainly light rain.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions likely through the weekend due to a stalled front and passing low pressure. CIGs and VSBYs will be diminished with the threat of fog and light to moderate rainfall. VFR should return early next week.

MARINE

Through Saturday... Decreasing winds this evening as cold front approaches. The SCA expiration time of 8 PM appears about on track. Tougher call is the ongoing marine fog as our SWrly flow have advected dewpoints well into the 60s over water that is in the upper 40s. Lengthened the advisory til 06Z tonight when not only will the front change the winds/fog trajectory but also dewpoints may fall. The CONSSHORT was handling the fog well and technically waves it off along SC before this but preferred to err on the side of caution and lengthen the headline for all waters, later shifts can re-assess. Winds will be very light tomorrow and generally onshore with the front just south of the area.

Saturday night through Tuesday night...No big changes to the previous forecast with moderate to high confidence through the period. A storm system will move through the area Sat night into Sun before strengthening off to the north which will then be followed by cold high pressure. The resulting strong pressure gradient and cold advection will lead to hazardous marine conditions early next week with a high risk for a Small Craft Advisory Sun afternoon through Mon night along with a moderate to high risk for at least gale force gusts Sun night thru Mon night. Sea fog will also remain a risk into early Sun as a warm/moist air mass remains in place prior to a cold frontal passage.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

Record lows for 2/24/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (18 last set in 1901) Lumberton NC - KLBT (18 last set in 1978) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (26 last set in 2009) Florence SC - KFLO (24 last set in 1968)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 AM EST Saturday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.