textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Soaking rainfall and cool temperatures arrive today as a storm system moves along the Carolina coast. High rain chances will continue through Saturday before becoming spottier early next week. Dry weather is expected to develop by Tuesday with continued below normal temperatures. Rain chances may return for the latter half of next week ahead of another front.

UPDATE

Aviation section updated.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak cold front settling into the region this morning will linger offshore into Sat. Although this front lacks moisture, a southern stream system moving east along the Gulf Coast will spread plenty of moisture across the area. In addition to plentiful moisture the low will first enhance weak isentropic lift with the front, around daybreak, strengthen the lift through the morning and then, as the low passes off the coast, add dynamical forcing. The result will be light rain spreading from south to north across the area during the early morning hours. Rain will increase in intensity after sunrise with periods of moderate and perhaps even brief heavy rain through mid-afternoon. Precipitable water exceeds 200% of normal just after sunrise and stays AoA 200% of normal throughout the day. There will be a tight gradient between rainfall amounts and with the low/front offshore the highest totals should be found off the coast. Generally expect rainfall amounts of 0.50" inland with 0.75" along the coast. However, given the amount of moisture and the fairly deep warm layer would not be shocked to see amounts come in a little higher. Cloud cover and rain will keep temperatures well below normal today with most areas struggling to hit 50.

Front lingers offshore tonight as the low departs. Weak wave developing over northern FL this evening moves northeast along the front tonight, passing well offshore. Although drier air moves in above 850 mb, the lowest levels remain saturated. Even with the dry air aloft, precipitable water remains above normal with a ribbon of 200% above normal hanging on along the coast. The result will be bouts of light rain overnight, with best chances along the coast. Low cloud hangs around overnight and even if rain is not falling from the sky it seems likely there will be mist/fog around. Lows will end up near normal.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Rain chances will be on the decline through Saturday as our offshore front is pushed to the south by building high pressure from the west. Dry conditions should take hold late Saturday night through Sunday morning away from the coast. A shortwave moving through with a small surge of moisture could bring isolated showers across the area Sunday night, but if rain makes it to the ground it should be light. The majority of the period Saturday night onwards looks dry.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A cold front will push through into Monday with a slight chance for rain during the day. Dry high pressure will then build in for Tuesday. A couple surges of moisture try to move through but nothing significant until a cold front into Thursday. This may bring a surge of PWATs +1" and enough forcing that could beat the dry air in place to bring back the possibility of rain. High pressure will hold with cold, dry weather until another front could bring rain chances back for Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Rain has arrived at all sites with both ceiling and visibility dropping into MVFR/IFR at times. The trend of conditions worsening will continue during the next couple of hours and all sites are likely to be IFR by mid to late morning. Rain loses intensity late afternoon and evening, but low levels are nearly saturated and where rain does come to an end this evening and overnight, lowest rain chances are inland, low clouds will hang around accompanied by heavy mist. IFR will continue through the valid TAF period although brief improvements to MVFR cannot be ruled out.

Extended Outlook...IFR through Saturday night. Potential for brief period of MVFR/VFR Sunday; MVFR/IFR Sunday night and Monday. VFR returns late Monday night.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Weak front in the area this morning with high pressure to the north, leading to northeast flow around 10 kt. Speeds will increase to 10- 15 kt late this morning as weak low pressure moves along the stalled front. The passage of the low in the afternoon causes winds to back from north-northeast to north- northwest. Once the low passes the northwest flow will drop back closer to 10 kt. Seas 2-3 ft will be a mix of the dominant southeast swell and a weak northeast wind wave.

Saturday through Wednesday...Offshore winds ~10 kts due to building high pressure. An approaching cold front will bring worsening marine conditions Monday, Small Craft Advisory conditions possible due to increased NE winds and seas. Brief high pressure Tuesday will lead to better conditions but increasing SW flow ahead of another frontal passage could bring Small Craft Advisory conditions again Wednesday. Seas generally 2-3 ft but increasing with the aforementioned frontal passages.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106- 108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.