textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Update for 00Z aviation discussion and to adjust rainfall chances for convection being on the wane.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Heat will give way to an active convective pattern through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat will give way to an active convective pattern through Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Front washes out Sunday but healthy piedmont trough develops while in the mid levels a low amplitude trough swings through. Looking for an active convective day that could make figuring out which part of the area will need a heat advisory. On Monday a cold front pushes through, still in the presence of heat/instability for another day with good storm coverage. After a return to more seasonable temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday it looks to start turning hot again as low amplitude ridging returns. Due to the lower amplitude the magnitude of the heat should fall short of the current heatwave.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Convection should end for the night at area terminals soon. After that expect mainly VFR conditions overnight. There is a chance for MVFR fog at terminals where the rain was a little more significant but confidence in that is too low for inclusion in most forecasts. We'll probably see more storms Sunday afternoon but pinpointing which terminals are most likely to be affected and when is a low confidence prospect attm.

Extended Forecast...A secondary front early next week will bring a period of wet and unsettled conditions through midweek. Periodic MVFR/IFR convection during the afternoon and evening remain possible 2nd half of this weekend into early next week. Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored where heavy rain fell the day before.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... Although the cold front currently stalled to our west washes out tomorrow a Piedmont trough takes its place and actually increases the gradient. SCA for mainly NC waters, too borderline this afternoon to pull the trigger. Outside of this a fairly typical regime will be in place for June with offshore high pressure keeping winds out of the SW and generally in the 10-15kt range early in the period, with a category increase late in the period as another cold front slowly approaches from the NW.

CLIMATE

Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which a few sites may reach record highs. The hottest day of the weekend will be today. The high temp records for each climate site this weekend are provided below.

Sat Sun Location Jun 13 Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 98 (2002) 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 101 (1920) 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 98 (1998) 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 102 (2022) 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.