textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures are trending a little cooler for the early and middle portions of this week. This is partly due to afternoon convection. However, temperatures will remain slightly above normal. Aviation discussion updated for the routine 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

Above normal temperatures are expected to continue this week, but the extreme heat observed over the last few days should start to relax early this week. Heat Advisory thresholds have been marginal the last several days and a degrading ridge will continue to allow temperatures to cool by a couple of degrees early this week. Humidity will increase in response to a building Bermuda high, but afternoon heat indices should remain between 100 and 104. The prolonged nature of the warm temperatures should be considered for any outdoor plans.

Afternoon thunderstorms will remain focused along the Piedmont trough today. More widespread activity is possible a weak trough approaches the area Monday through the middle of this week. Increasing activity along the sea breeze could also provide additional rounds of storms each day.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms are likely to impact inland terminals this afternoon. Convection has already developed just west of I-95 and will move or re-develop to the northeast through the afternoon.

Coastal terminals are dealing with MVFR sea breeze cumulus early this afternoon. As the sea breeze deepens, skies should become clear or CIGs should rise above MVFR. Storms should remain west of the area or south of Murrell's Inlet. Ongoing southeast flow could produce some MVFR this evening. If heavy rain occurs at inland terminals today, some shallow ground fog will be possible tonight.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for restrictions from fog/low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms Monday, continuing through Wednesday.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds continue through Monday as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected on Monday with gusts up to 20 knots possible through Monday night. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058- 059. MARINE...None.