textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected much of the time through mid next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding likely into early next week along the lower Cape Fear River.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected much of the time through mid next week.

Mid-level high pressure will generally prevail across the region aiding in above normal temperatures near record levels at times. High humidity will help push heat indices into Heat Advisory range (105-109 degrees) for most each day and even into Heat Warning range (110+ degrees) for some (mainly across the coastal counties where dewpoints should be greatest due to the sea breeze). However, it is worth noting that forecast confidence regarding heat indices remains lower than normal, especially this weekend, as there is some uncertainty regarding temps/dewpoints/rain/cloud coverage.

Remember, heat is the #1 weather-related cause of death so everyone is encouraged to take proper precautions. Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecasts and safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding likely into early next week along the lower Cape Fear River.

High astronomical tides and continued tidal anomalies will lead to minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River through today, potentially during both the daytime and nighttime high tides.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

06Z Fri thru 06Z Sat: High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions. Very low risk for early morning fog (mainly inland at KFLO) and showers/storms this aftn/early eve as the sea breeze moves inland (mainly at KILM/KCRE/KMYR).

06Z Sat thru Tue...Mostly VFR outside a generally low risk for low clouds/fog each late night/early morning and mainly aftn/eve showers/storms.

MARINE

Friday through Tuesday...Typical summertime conditions expected most of the period, although a weak front should stall over or near the area this weekend leading to shifting winds and higher rain chances. However, winds/seas should not reach headline criteria through the period.

CLIMATE

An abnormally warm weather pattern is expected across the region for much of the time through mid next week. Some record highs will be possible, starting with today (8/14) at KCRE where the record high is 93 last set in 1997.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.