textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Much colder and drier air will prevail early this week. Below normal temperatures should last through Monday night before returning to normal Tuesday through Wednesday. The next cold front accompanied by a few showers will push thru Thursday morning and will be followed by additional cold weather lasting through the end of the week.

UPDATE

No major changes made to the public/marine forecasts. Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/

The cold front has moved offshore with gusty winds and clearing skies in it's wake. Lows tonight should settle into the mid to upper 20s most areas. With some residual wind in the boundary layer any deviation to the forecast will likely be to the upside. The airmass will be slow to modify Monday despite all but full sunshine. Highs will be a couple of degrees either side of 50.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/

Elongated center of high pressure to straddle the Carolinas Mon night which will lead to decent rad cooling conditions. And with dense and dry cold air across the FA, winds likely to decouple early Mon night, leaving a free fall in temps. As a result, have applied some rad cooling to the min and hourly temps during Mon night, which will undercut guidance by 1 to 5 degrees. Could see teens in those remote locations, ie. Back Island RAWS of Pender County. nevertheless, it will be ccccccold. Only fly in the ointment will be clouds straddling the southern portions of the FA and along the coast b4 extending out into the ocean, likely in the form of thin/opaque cirrus, that for the most part shouldn't affect the rad cooling.

Will continue under the influence of the recent upper pattern change to troffiness aloft affecting generally the eastern half of the U.S. Continue with dry conditions but with some amplification of the upper trof at the end of this period with the upper trof axis re-situating along the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley extending to the Great Lakes. Sfc high to slide off the coast Tue with moderating temps, back to near normal, thru Tue night expected as milder air overspreads the FA under SW-W flow sfc and aloft. Could see clouds by Wed daybreak as an approaching southern stream upper s/w trof aids.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Continued amplification in the upper trof Wed thru Thu with a Gulf States southern stream upper s/w trof pushing off the SE States Coast Wed into Wed night and will result in clouds and potential light liquid pcpn. This will be quickly followed by a digging northern stream upper s/w trof that closes off as it dives and reaches the southern Appalachians Thu. At the sfc, low pressure to develop across the Central Carolinas with its attendant cold front pushing across the FA early Thu. Potential again for showers, liquid variety. However, whats interesting is how far south followed by an eastward movement of the upper closed low and associated excellent dynamics in combination with the ongoing CAA across the FA. Followed by another question of whether enough moisture to exist for possible pcpn. At this point, have indicated light rain possible Thu evening. However will mention that guidance has difficulties at times dealing with pcpn under a moving closed upper low in the vicinity. This upcoming scenario has some similarities to the snow shower/flurry activity that occurred during the evening of November 10th, 2025. End result, looks to briefly get much colder than normal Thu night thru Fri. The upper low progresses off the OuterBanks Fri and well away from the Carolinas by the upcoming weekend. Moderating Canadian sfc high to push across the FA Sat followed by the next potential storm system Sat night and Sun with liquid pcpn likely, having been under a WAA regime starting Fri. Confidence remains low to modest at best Wed into Thu, there-after drops to low given the many scenarios that could pan out.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions through 00Z/13. Gusty NW/N winds will subside this evening as high pressure builds in from the west.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions prevail through Wednesday. Restrictions are possible again with arrival of the next cold front Wednesday night and Thursday.

MARINE

Through Monday...Winds and seas on the way up this afternoon as cold air advection commences. The short lived small craft advisory remains in place for mainly the gusty winds. The latest guidance has trended toward elements improving a bit quicker Monday and the expiration may need to be adjusted tonight. The northerly flow will diminish to 5-10 knots by later MOnday with seas 1-3 feet.

Monday Night through Thursday Night...Center of sfc high straddling the coast will result in a loose sfc pg across the waters Mon night thru Tue resulting in wind speeds AOB 10 kt. Wind directions could be problematic given the light speeds and weak sfc pressure pattern. Center of the sfc high to slide well offshore Tue night and Wed with cyclonic flow sfc and aloft becoming dominant the remainder of this fcst period. The sfc pg tightens Tue night/Wed as a southern stream upper s/w pushes across the FA. Some WAA followed by brief CAA or just neutral advection in the wake of its passage by Wed night. Later Wed night thru Thu night, the sfc pg to tighten and remain tightened. look for SW-W winds too increase to SCA thresholds late Wed night and persist thru Thu, becoming NW at SCA levels with Gale Gusts Thu night as strong CAA engulfs the area waters. Seas will be a function of the local and neighboring wind regime, and with weather features continually progressing across the area, seas will be of the short period variety with models not indicating much in the way of any underlying long period swells affecting the local waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.