textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAF issuance.

As of 3 AM EDT... Guidance continues to show an increasing potential for some spotty showers with a passing cold front on Saturday, as well as a higher likelihood of gale conditions over the waters this weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day.

2) Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry forecast dominates through Friday, with temperatures nearing record highs each day.

Latest surface analysis shows an elongated surface high that stretches from the Gulf coast through the coastal Carolinas. This surface ridge is associated with an upr-level ridge that's tucked slightly more to the west along the Gulf coast from TX to the FL panhandle. Widespread subsidence keeps the forecast dry through Friday.

500 mb heights hang around 592-594 dam, which easily rank in climatological maximums in this area, per SPC Sounding Climatology for KCHS, KMHX, and KHAT. This means very unseasonably warm temperatures that look a lot more like mid- to-late June than mid-October. Widespread highs in the upper 80s to near 90 inland and mid 80s at the coast expected today and Friday. Record-tying or record-breaking high temperatures are in play here, especially today. Please see Climate section below for more info.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Most significant cooldown of the season so far expected this weekend.

A strong cold front is still slated to move through the area Fri night into early Sat, ushering in the coolest air of autumn thus far. Overall, guidance continues to show an overall lack of moisture with this front, but chances of showers were nudged up slightly to 40-50% over much of the area daytime Sat. There is still a lot of uncertainty over whether a coastal low develops over the weekend, but regardless there is still a good chance for anafrontal showers following the cold front passage while the upr-level trough axis remains just off to the west.

Dewpoints in the mid 60s to near 70 Fri evening will drop through Sat down into the 50s and even some 40s by late Sat. This drying trend will continue into Sat night with gusty northerly winds allowing dewpoints to bottom out early Sun in the 30s to around 40 close to the coast. Plenty of CAA will bring temps down quite a few degrees below normal Sat into Sun. Temps Sat aftn will resemble overnight temps just 12 hrs before, but the stiff northerly winds will make it feel even cooler. Expect overnight lows Sat night in the 40s inland to near 50 at the coast. Overall, fall-like weather will arrive Sat with a gradual warming through early next week.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in VFR through tonight. Confidence remains low regarding the potential for MVFR visibility in ground fog late tonight and Friday morning.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR outside of low to moderate confidence in patchy fog late tonight. Northerly winds behind a cold front Friday night could gust over 30 knots into the day Saturday. There is also low to moderate confidence in MVFR to IFR ceilings near the coast over the weekend, should a coastal low develop just offshore, but guidance continues to have a lot of spread on this feature.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least daytime Friday with sfc high pressure offshore. Pattern starts to change late Friday, as gradient winds increase ahead of a cold front. Front moves through overnight Friday night, allowing the winds to quickly veer to the N, gradually veering even more to the NNE through the day Saturday into Sunday. Seas will ramp up in increasing winds ahead of the front and will peak late Saturday night into Sunday, ranging from 4-8 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, to 8-12 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.

At least Small Craft Advisory conditions are a slam dunk Saturday morning through early next week. Confidence in eventually needing a Gale Warning is increasing as well, with a moderate to high likelihood of gusts up to 35-40 kt Saturday night and Sunday with a strong pressure gradient persisting over the local waters between strong high pressure inland and low pressure well offshore.

CLIMATE

Current forecast vs. records: Thursday, October 15: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 89F (88F in 1985) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 84F (85F in 2008) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 90F (89F in 2021 and 1985) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 90F (91F in 1919)

Friday, October 16: - Wilmington, NC (KILM): 86F (87F in 2021, 2018, and 1975) - North Myrtle Beach, SC (KCRE): 82F (88F in 1990) - Florence, SC (KFLO): 87F (91F in 2021) - Lumberton, NC (KLBT): 87F (92F in 1925)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.