textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances for this evening should remain limited to coastal areas and offshore waters as the cold front moves through the region. A stray shower is possible late this afternoon, but hi- res guidance remains inconsistent. Confidence remains high that near-record high temperatures are expected today and significant relief will follow.

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonable heat may break record highs at Wilmington and Myrtle Beach Monday. A shower is possible ahead of a cold front this evening.

2) A modified Canadian airmass will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions to the area beginning late Monday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Unseasonable heat may break record highs at Wilmington and Myrtle Beach Monday. A shower is possible ahead of a cold front this evening.

Temperatures should rise into the 90s one last time Monday. A surface trough should drift offshore early Monday morning leaving light northwesterly winds in place throughout the day. This will hold the seabreeze back and allow hot air to push all the way down to the beaches. Our forecast high of 94 in Wilmington would tie the record set back in 2010, and our forecast high of 92 at North Myrtle Beach would break the record set back in 2020. Florence and Lumberton should remain a few degrees shy of their records. Heat indices are forecast to top out in the upper 90s to around 100 inland, with some 101-103 readings possible within higher dewpoints near the coast.

Warm temperatures and convergence along the sea breeze may produce a stray shower during the afternoon. However, dry air aloft will be a challenge for any developing convection. Rain chances increase later in the afternoon ahead of a cold front as surface lift taps into the warm and humid surface layer. Showers will be more focused near the coast and offshore where surface moisture is greatest. CAMs are inconsistent on the extent of showers, but latest HREF keeps PoPs low throughout the day and maximizes rain chances during the frontal passage near the coast. Favored this distribution for the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... A modified Canadian airmass will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions to the area beginning late Monday night.

A refreshing surge of cooler, drier northeast winds will spread in behind the front Monday night. Daytime highs Tuesday through Thursday should remain in the 80s, but the real change will be apparent with overnight lows. For locations away from the coast, forecast lows are in the 60s Monday night through Friday night.

Our forecast low Tuesday night in Wilmington is 64, the coolest in over 3 months!

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR through the TAF period. Patchy ground fog could result in a brief period of sub-VFR restrictions, mainly near the coast. A cold front will drop southward on Monday evening. A few showers or storms will be possible ahead of the front during the late afternoon, but chances are low. Winds will shift to the NE and intensify behind the front. Dry air should maintain VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook... VFR conditions should persist through Friday in a drier and cooler airmass.

MARINE

Northerly winds develop across the region early Monday morning. During the afternoon, differential heating should produce a strong enough sea breeze for winds near the coast to turn southeasterly. A few storms are possible during the afternoon, but rain chances increase this evening as a cold front plunges southward. Northeast winds surge behind the front this evening. The surge of northeasterly winds behind the front is expected to reach 20-25 knots across the Cape Fear coastal waters and a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Slightly weaker winds are expected for portions of the SC nearshore waters early Tuesday. Breezy northeast winds should continue through at least Tuesday evening before weakening somewhat by Wednesday. Directions should remain east to northeast through Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252.