textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated key messages/discussion for the ending of today's high rip risk.

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Good chances for rain will develop tonight into Monday as low pressure moves offshore.

2) Canadian air spreading southward could bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Good chances for rain will develop tonight into Monday as low pressure moves offshore.

An area of low pressure developing along a frontal boundary to the south will bring rain chances back to the area overnight into Monday as another cold front approaches from the north. We could see warm frontal type rain with embedded convection as a result of the low affecting the area tonight into Monday. This will be followed by showers and storms later Monday into Monday night in association with the front coming in from the north.

There is some uncertainty Tuesday about how much/long rain may linger. Some wetter guidance warrants holding onto pops into Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Canadian air spreading southward could bring temperatures 10 to 15 degrees below normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

An exceptionally amplified upper air pattern for early June should feature a strong ridge along the Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes and a deep trough along the East Coast, perhaps leading to a cutoff upper low east of the Outer Banks Wednesday and Thursday. While the system appears at this time that it will be located too far east for any wet weather to occur across our area, a deep flow of Canadian air should bring temperatures well below normal to the Carolinas.

AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in mostly VFR conditions thru about 05Z before MVFR cigs develop as low pressure approaches from the south, initially at KMYR/KCRE/KFLO and then at KILM/KLBT closer to 12Z. IFR and even LIFR cigs are possible as well, mainly in SC. Scattered to numerous showers and a few storms will develop from the south tonight before pushing offshore toward mid day as the low makes its closest approach, with more showers/storms expected to develop ahead of an approaching cold front later in the day, mainly at KLBT/KFLO/KILM.

Extended Forecast...There is moderate to high potential for periodic MVFR/IFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms Monday night into Tuesday, especially near the coast, as a cold front impacts the area. VFR conditions should prevail Tuesday night through Friday under drier high pressure.

MARINE

Winds and seas have abated sufficiently for the Small Craft Advisory to be allowed to expire at 1 PM. E to SE winds of 10 to 15 with higher gusts this afternoon will gradually diminish into Monday night before becoming NE at 20 to 25 KT by Tuesday afternoon and night. Winds will gradually diminish Wednesday and Thursday as the pressure gradient relaxes. Small craft advisory conditions are possible within 20 NM Tuesday and Tuesday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.