textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion with the issuance of the 12Z TAFS.

Issuances of Extreme Heat Warning for the coastal counties and Heat Advisory for the inland counties.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The heatwave with widely scattered late day convection to dominate the near term.

2) Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat afternoon through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

3) High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east to southeast facing beaches today.

4) Small craft advisory in effect for the NC Coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heatwave with only widely scattered late day convection to dominate the near term.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Mid to upper 90s will dominate todays highs with 100+ degree readings still feasible across the FA. The ILM Airport will have its potential 3rd consecutive day to observe 100+ degree max temps. Even the immediate coastal locations will observe mid 90 degree readings. Some mixing down of drier air aloft will result in mid to upper 60s sfc dewpoints away from the immediate coast that will keep heat indices at or just below the 105 degree heat advisory threshold. However, the latest NWS Heat Risk Map illustrates the highest category, EXTREME RISK, across half of the ILM CWA. As a result, have issued Heat Advisories for the inland portions of the ILM CWA based largely on heat impacts. With mid to upper 70s sfc dewpoints remaining across the immediate coast today, this will result in aftn 110+ heat indices which will prompt another Extreme Heat Warning for the coastal counties today.

The upper ridge axis across the area will continue to keep a lid on the majority of any convection that tries to develop today. However, it does flatten out with time by late this aftn or tonight. This will allow convection to develop west of the FA and eventually track into the ILM CWA from the west later today and this evening. Low chance POPs highlight this potential. Could observe mid-aftn thru evening isolated convection along the pinned sea breeze. Will still have a subsidence inversion to break thru for this to occur.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Relief from the heat is in sight with increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms Sat afternoon through Sunday night as a cold frontal system drops south across the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... An upper pattern change starting Sun will help drive a sfc cold front southward, crossing the area Sun with high pressure slow to fill in from the north thru mid-week next week. The end result of this change will be 2 fold. The 1st will be the increasing potential for numerous showers and tstorms Sat afternoon thru early Mon. This pattern change involves the upper ridge that has plagued the FA for the past week with heat ad humidity, will be shifting to the west-central part of the U.S. and is even progged to amplify considerably. With plenty of antecedent heat and moisture along with sfc features and weak impulses aloft, the potential for widespread convection looks good across the FA, especially Sat night thru Sun night. Some tstorms possibly could reach strong/severe with also the potential for copious amounts of well needed rainfall to fight the ongoing and worsening drought. Temps will also drop considerably with residual low 90s for Sun highs followed by 80s for highs Mon and Tue of next week.

KEY MESSAGE 3...High risk of rip currents at south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Strong South to North longshore current at east to southeast facing beaches today.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION... Building southerly swell will lead to a high risk of rip currents for south-facing beaches today and Saturday. Continued hot weather and weekend timing will contribute to increased beach attendance - beachgoers should stay out of the water where a high risk of rip currents is in effect. Conditions improve on Sunday as the swell weakens, and currently a moderate rip risk is forecasted for Sunday for south-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Small craft advisory in effect for the NC Coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...See Marine Discussion Section.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. Mostly clear skies with scattered diurnal cu this afternoon. Southwest winds around 10 kts during the day with gusts near 20 kts, lowering to 5-10 kts tonight. Widely scattered thunderstorms are forecasted to move in from the west last this afternoon into this evening, but confidence too low regarding impacts to individual terminals and so have kept out of the 12z TAFs.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR and breezy SW-WSW winds late tonight and again Sat into Sat night. Threat for periodic flight restrictions from Sat afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms becoming more numerous Sat night into early Mon as a frontal system drops south across the region. High pressure to slowly build in Tue.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory that ended around 6am this morning for all coastal waters has been cancelled since winds have diminished- some. Today thru tonight will be nearly a repeat of Thursday due to a tightened gradient between the Piedmont trof across the central Carolinas and the ridging over the offshore waters being suppressed southward. Looking at SW-WSW, except SSW this afternoon and evening within 10 nm from the coast due to the sea breeze circulation. Will see occasional to frequent 25+ kt wind gusts especially across the ILM NC Waters. Both the ILM NC and SC Offshore waters will observe occasional 30 kt gusts early this morning thru Sat. Seas will remain elevated in the 3 to 5 ft range today thru Sat night with 6 footers likely for the ILM NC Coastal waters and extending over both ILM NC and SC Offshore waters. Cold front drops southward, crossing the area waters Sun. Organized convection will increase in coverage across all waters later Sat thru Sun, slowly abating Mon. Look for the wind shift to NE-ENE late Sun and continuing thru early next week as high pressure ridges in. Could see a brief SCA threshold NE-E surge.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ105>110. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-059. Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058. Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ250-252.