textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

Northeast flow will be enhanced today as reinforcing high builds down the coast into Thursday, tightening the pressure gradient. Although winds will not be as strong or gusty compared to last week, concerns remain at the coast. The likelihood for strong, dangerous rip currents will remain elevated through the end of the week along with the potential for strong longshore currents at east-facing beaches. For marine implications, see the marine section below.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the morning high tides. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for this morning's high tide.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. Increased low- level moisture today and Thursday will produce cloud cover, and possibly a few sprinkles but the shallow nature of the moisture and lack of forcing will prevent measurable rain. Temperatures gradually rise through the work week before settling back to near normal over the weekend. A storm system affecting the Southern Plains late in the week may eventually bring increased rain chances early next week.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

A patch of LIFR/IFR stratus is currently moving west across eastern NC. Low stratus has moved out of ILM and is forecasted to impact KLBT for a few hours this morning. Confidence is low regarding how far westward the low clouds will progress before slowly mixing out after sunrise, and have kept FLO VFR this morning with scattered IFR/MVFR clouds until midday. After stratus scatters/lifts, VFR will prevail into tonight with scattered-broken mid level clouds. There is a chance for IFR/MVFR stratus to return tonight, but confidence is low. Northeast winds continue to prevail across the area, with gusts of 15-20 kts this afternoon.

Extended outlook: VFR conditions are expected to prevail with gusty NE winds at times, especially near the coast.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. Northeast flow will increase today as high pressure to the north is reinforced. Although speeds will generally be under 20 kt within 20 NM, the extended duration and fetch of enhanced northeast flow, on top of an already elevated sea state (easterly swell 4-5 ft), will keep seas over 6 ft through Thu. The pressure gradient starts to relax late Thu with winds and seas gradually decreasing Thu night through Fri. High pressure returns for the weekend, building down the coast Sat into Sun, leading to another northeast surge and potential for headlines. Low pressure developing over the central CONUS early next week could lead to stronger winds than currently forecast for Sun, but have limited confidence in timing/location/strength of low at this point.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT today for SCZ054-056. High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.