textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Wednesday will wind up seasonable but a late day cold front will usher in chilly air once again. Friday begins a warmup where weekend highs wind up in the 60s before another cold front later Sunday. Neither of these boundaries will bring any significant rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Stratus has been slow to erode through the morning, but dry air has finally cleared out most of SE NC and is thinning the cloud deck across NE SC early this afternoon. Clearing will allow temps to fall into the mid/upper 20s overnight, at least away from the immediate coast, as winds go calm under high pressure. SW flow and moderating temperatures return on Wednesday as low pressure swings across the Great Lakes. Mixing to about 2000-2200 ft Wednesday afternoon will tap into a low-level jet, allowing gusts of 30-35 mph.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Channeled vorticity streaks across northern NC Wednesday night under the southern periphery of cutoff low north of the Great Lakes. This shoves a rain-free cold front through the area and well offshore. Low level wind fields will weaken in the ensuing CAA regime Thursday afternoon so much less breezy than Wed night. The high builds in Thursday night while weakening but some high, thin clouds will be building in from the northwest along a very long and expansive upper jet running from the DelMarva to British Columbia, Canada.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Warm front lifts through early Friday, though the WAA only looks strong enough for a return of near-seasonable temperatures by afternoon. WAA continues over the weekend but in a very weak and disorganized manner. As such some of the operational guidance showing both afternoons warming well into the 60s seems a bit ambitious and the more tempered highs of the NBM were retained. Cold front arriving Sunday not only ends the warmth but could also offer a shot of modified Arctic air.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

MVFR ceilings eroding from north to south this afternoon, and should allow clearing at KMYR/KCRE/KFLO over the next few hours. VFR expected overnight and Wednesday, with SW gusts developing late morning Wednesday.

LLWS may develop for a few hours Wednesday evening. VFR expected Wednesday afternoon through Sunday.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Light winds expected overnight as high pressure pushes across the waters. Low pressure will track across the Great Lakes region Wednesday, resulting in SW flow developing across the waters. A low-level just will push over the waters Wednesday afternoon, and although mixing will be somewhat limited by a stable marine layer, gusts are expected to reach 25 to 30 kt at times during the afternoon, prompting the issuance of a Small Craft Advisory starting at 18Z.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Period initializes with advisory- worthy wind and seas following moderately strong cold front. What weak swell components, if any, will be much over shadowed by the wind driven 4-5 second waves. Both abate as Thursday progresses but the real improvement comes Friday as the center of the high sinks south and east and a weak warm front turns our flow back to southerly. W to SW winds over the weekend will increase albeit gradually as the next front approaches.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Wednesday to 7 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.