textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 6 AM EDT...The aviation discussion has been updated for the 12z TAF issuance. LLWS has been added to all TAF sites for Sunday night.

As of 3 AM EDt...The end time of the nearshore Gale Warnings have been adjusted with the stronger gradient remaining farther offshore.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to prolonged dangerous marine conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to prolonged hazardous marine conditions.

A deepening nor'easter and high pressure to our north will continue to produce gusty winds through early next week. Northerly flow should keep temperatures slightly below normal through much of the upcoming week. Dry air advection and high pressure over the eastern US will maintain clear skies.

Strong winds are producing marine impacts. For more information, see the marine discussion below.

Low temperatures will remain below normal but warm enough to where frost formation is not expected.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Skies have cleared out across the area, with any remaining sub- VFR ceilings expected to remain offshore as dry air stays entrenched across the region through the TAF period.

Surface wind gusts have largely subsided, which will allow LLWS to persist through at least daybreak due to a 40-50 kt northeasterly LLJ. Northeasterly gustiness of 22-28kts are expected to re-develop after daybreak at all TAF sites, bringing an end to the LLWS threat. Another period of LLWS is possible Sunday night.

Extended Outlook... A nor'easter well offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through mid to late week.

MARINE

A developing nor'easter may linger east of the area through the forecast period. Gale force winds are expected through the weekend possibly longer in our SE NC waters. The latest forecast addresses timing details for the SC nearshore waters. Due to the location of the low, winds are expected to decrease below gale force faster than previously anticipated. Thus, the Gale Warning is expected to come to an end overnight tonight for the nearshore SC waters. Small Craft Advisory conditions will follow. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on it's exact track.

High pressure building across the northeastern US next weekend may bring additional marine headlines.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106. High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-284. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Monday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ280.