textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Confidence in temperatures above normal next week is increasing. Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures a few degrees above normal next week with diurnal convection returning Monday.

Broad ridging aloft south of the area starts to expand north on Sun, peaking in strength Mon. Subsidence on the northern side of the ridge will lead to temperatures near to slightly above normal Sun and even warmer on Mon. The subsidence, leading to mid-level dry air and stability, will keep rain chances very low Sun. Rain chances increase slightly Mon, given temperatures in the mid 90s, but the environment remains unfavorable for more than a few afternoon or evening storms.

Weak shortwave early Tue dents the ridge, but enhanced subsidence in the wake of the shortwave and resulting westerly flow will result in temps as warm if not warmer than Mon. Warmth will also extend to the coast with the sea breeze pinned by westerly low level flow. Would not be shocked to see Tue highs 1-2 degrees warmer than currently forecast. Similar to Mon the environment is not one conducive to the development of storms and while some isolated convection is likely due to the heat, do not anticipate a lot of coverage. Cloud cover and storm coverage starts to increase for the second half of next week, leading to slightly cooler afternoon highs and higher rain chances.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR dominates the 24 hr 00Z TAF issuance period. GFSLamp guidance indicating patchy low stratus and fog at of just west and south of the myrtles. Not confident enough to place in the respective tafs but enough to mention here. Otherwise, will see periodic cirrus although not as opaque as today, along with FEW/SCT diurnal Cu. Weak high pressure and a relaxed sfc pg prevails across the area Sun. Winds this evening will likely go calm across inland terminals and variable aob 3 kt at the coastal terminals with the land breeze becoming prevalent by daybreak Sun. Land breeze will give way to the sea breeze by midday Sun. And it looks to make a much better progression inland when compared to today.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Sun night. Isolated MVFR/IFR possible with isolated to scattered afternoon and evening storms starting Mon.

MARINE

Light northerly flow today will become southerly tonight as weak high migrates off the coast. Southwest flow becomes entrenched for the start of next week with surface high anchored offshore. Inland heating and the arrival of a cold front will tighten the gradient over the waters Mon/Tue resulting in a jump in speeds to 15-20kt for the start of the work week. The increase in winds will lead to seas building from around 2 ft this weekend to 3 ft Mon and 3-4 ft with widespread 4 ft beyond 20 nm Tue. A front moves in from the northwest Tue night, followed by high pressure and northerly flow Wed morning before winds shift to southeast in the afternoon. The change in wind direction and reduction in speeds will lead to seas falling to 2-3 ft Wed. A southerly wind wave remains dominant through the forecast, with the period gradually decreasing through Mon before starting to increase as the wind wave starts to transition to a swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.