textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heightened key message #1. Have issued a SPS to address the potential for patchy icy spots across the entire ILM CWA given leftover melting snow and any standing water from the recent rainfall. Temps will drop to and below 32 degrees this evening and into the 20s overnight.

Updated the Aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Below freezing temperatures and lingering low level moisture could lead to patchy freezing fog and/or spots of black ice tonight into early Friday morning. Take care on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses.

2) An Arctic cold front will bring brisk winds and a very cold weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night.

3) A warming trend will begin into next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Below freezing temperatures and lingering low level moisture could lead to patchy freezing fog and/or spots of black ice tonight into early Friday morning. Take care on roadways, particularly bridges and overpasses.

The recent rain could lead to fog formation tonight, particularly for inland NE SC, and some guidance has started to pick up on that though with some uncertainty in coverage. This fog paired with temperatures dropping below freezing fairly early tonight and lows dropping into the 20s would lead to freezing fog while also freezing any water left on the roadways. There is a chance that we radiate out with the calm winds but there is some rounds of clouds overnight that should help to combat that, so have only lowered low temps a tad from NBM. Right now it looks like inland might be dealing with more of a fog problem and the coast more of a black ice problem since the roads still look wet on highway cameras. There's several things that will have to come together so for now have held off on any headlines so that the next round of guidance can add some confidence to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...An Arctic cold front will bring brisk winds and a very cold weekend. A Cold Weather Advisory may be needed Saturday night.

Deep northwest to northerly winds behind an arctic cold front will bring very cold temperatures and even colder wind chills into the weekend. Temperatures will run a good 10 to 15 degrees below normal over the weekend, even with plenty of sunshine. Overnight lows on Saturday will drop down near 20 degrees and will feel even cooler. This may lead to a Cold Weather Advisory for Sat night with wind chill values of 15 or less, especially over North Carolina.

KEY MESSAGE 3...A warming trend will begin into next week. Temperatures will warm starting on Monday as high pressure shifts off the coast allowing for a warmer return flow. 850 temps will rise from near -12c on Sat up close to 8c late Mon through Wed. Should see temps rise into the 60s with overnight lows midweek warmer than our high temps this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

MVFR ceilings to quickly rise to VFR this evening, commencing at the inland terminals and reaching the coastal terminals between 02Z and 04Z. There-after, looking at high Altocu or low Cirrus cloud decks for the duration of this 24 hr period. Have included 3sm to 5sm br but there is a potential for 2sm or less vsbys especially if winds go calm. For now have kept active WNW- NW winds AOB 5 kt for the overnight. Look for winds to become WSW-SW around 10 kt with gusts to 15+ kt possible after 16Z and continuing thru 00Z 2/7 as the next cold/arctic front approaches.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

MARINE

Through Friday...A NE surge behind the cold front that went through today will lead to an increase in winds and seas tonight, so have kept the Small Craft Advisory in place.

Friday night through Tuesday...A surge of NW to N winds behind an Arctic cold front late Friday into Saturday will bring Small Craft Advisory conditions to the area waters Fri night through Sat night and may see some gale force gusts on Saturday. The strong offshore component to the winds will keep the greatest seas in the outer waters with most waters in 3 to 5 ft within 20 nm of the coast. Winds and seas will drop Sun into Mon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.