textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry to start the work week with rain chances returning mid week and likely moreso late week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry to start the work week with rain chances returning mid week and likely moreso late week through the weekend.

Arctic high pressure will prevail to start the period with a warming trend into mid week followed by another cooling trend late week. A passing cold front will bring some light rain Wednesday into Wednesday night. Low to moderate rain chances then return starting late Thursday night through Saturday with moderate to possibly high chances starting Saturday night as a potentially stronger storm system impacts the area. Although there is some uncertainty in the evolution of this weekend system the risk for any significant impacts appears to be low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence for VFR conditions continues through the period as dry surface high pressure drifts towards the area from the north. This will support initially northeast winds becoming light and variable during Monday afternoon as the high pressure center drifts nearly overhead and winds within the boundary layer become very weak. Winds should go calm after sunset and support rapid cooling where skies are clear, and this, combined with rising dew points, may result in shallow fog starting to develop around 06Z.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions due to shallow fog and/or low clouds are possible tonight and Tuesday night. Intermittent sea fog could also impact the coastal terminals Tuesday night into early Wednesday prior to a cold frontal passage. The front could also bring some mainly minor restrictions from rain and/or low clouds Wednesday and Wednesday night.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure north of the area will maintain steady northeast winds through Monday morning before they slacken and veer as the high pressure area shifts nearly overhead. Generally 1-3 ft seas are expected through the period, primarily driven by wind waves. However, in the waters primarily southeast and east of Cape Fear, an ENE 1-3 ft swell with a period around 12-13 sec is expected to contribute to the wave spectrum as well.

Tuesday through Friday night...No significant concerns thru the period. There is a low risk for marginal SCA conditions (mainly for wind gusts around 25 kt) Tue night/early Wed due to the passage of a cold front. Also, there is a low risk for sea fog Tue aftn/night prior to the cold frontal passage, especially around Cape Fear.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.