textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories go into effect tonight (7 PM - 10 PM EDT along the coastline from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC, and 9 PM - 1 AM EDT along the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington).

Elsewhere, no major changes coming down the track for this forecast update. Aviation section updated below for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding during high tide should continue through Wednesday.

- 2) Canadian air will gradually modify and warm up this week, with dry weather expected to last through the next several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding during high tide should continue through Wednesday.

Unusual water level anomalies continue along Myrtle Beach and Wrightsville Beach, due to the nor'easter currently hammering its way into New Jersey. Wrightsville Beach recorded a max water level of 7.26 ft MLLW at 8:24 AM EDT this morning, which ranks as the 13th highest historic crest on record. Water levels have likely reached their highest crest across the area during this morning's high tide, and will slowly start coming down over the next several high tide cycles. Though the situation will improve, minor coastal flooding will continue.

Another round of Coastal Flood Advisories will go into effect this evening for the entire coastline from South Santee River, SC to Surf City, NC from 7 PM - 10 PM EDT, along with the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington from 9 PM - 1 AM EDT.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Canadian air will gradually modify and warm up this week, with dry weather expected to last through the next several days.

Another very cool fall night on the way, with lows dipping down into the low-to-mid 50s inland, upper 50s at the coast. The RAWS station in Back Island, NC got down to 42F at 6 AM this morning, and I anticipate a similar result before sunrise Monday morning across the cool spots of Bladen and Pender Counties.

The nor'easter will continue to push through New England, transitioning into an open wave as it pushes offshore of Maine late Tuesday. Air mass modification creates a warming trend starting on Monday, although subtle at first. Highs generally get into the lower 80s, hovering near seasonal norms for late September. Temperatures then quickly jet above normal Tuesday, continuing into Friday. The dreaded 90F readings appear to be possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, becoming a bit more likely Thursday and Friday. Onshore flow pushes dewpoints back up into the 60s again, and even more miserably, the 70s at the coast. While hints of summer continue to throw punches, sinking air kills any chances for rain through much of next week. Guidance becomes a bit shaky by Friday, as tropical moisture will work with a series of frontal systems to bring more rain chances into play. The trends have made this mostly a weekend issue, although depending on the timing, showers may start to unfold as early as Friday. Will need to monitor the uncertainty in subsequent forecast updates.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Solidly VFR and SKC through the 18Z TAF period. Occasional gusts out of the west may approach 17-20 kts at times this afternoon, but calm by 21-22Z. Light WNW winds tonight, if not completely calm. Towards the end of the period, WNW winds pick up slightly to near 5-6 kts.

Extended Forecast...VFR. There is a low potential for morning ground fog Tuesday through Friday.

MARINE

Through Friday...999 mb low pressure colliding into the New Jersey coastline should continue to weaken and then lift out to the northeast Monday into Tuesday. East-northeasterly backswell at 12 second period will decrease in amplitude tonight into Monday. Within 20 miles of shore, seas should average no higher than 3 feet near Cape Fear and only 2 feet west/southwest of Cape Fear. As winds and swell both decrease Tuesday into Wednesday, some truly ideal marine weather conditions are expected with only 1-2 foot seas and winds less than 10 knots under high pressure.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.