textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added patchy fog overnight that may last well into Friday. This generally will occur after the CFP, with it progged to drop from north to south, crossing the area late tonight thru midday Fri. Showery pcpn ahead of the cold front followed by overrunning stratiform clouds and rains in its wake. Will continue to monitor if the trend results in the need to up the fog coverage and/or intensity after FROPA. Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAFs.

152 PM EST Change... Much-needed rainfall is expected through early Saturday, but totals have decreased slightly due to the broken nature of the precipitation shield. Additional rainfall is possible early next week. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Much-needed rainfall through early Saturday.

2) Cooler with another round of rain possible early next week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Much-needed rainfall through early Saturday.

A slow-moving cold front is working its way southward across the area as of 18Z Thursday. Showers developing along the cold front will bring much-needed rainfall to the area this evening and overnight. Rainfall rates have been rather low thus far, but cool air advection aloft and better saturation should increase rates overnight. A rumble of thunder is also possible, although lapse rates are poor enough to keep mention out of the weather grids.

The cold front will push southward on Friday with cooler air building in ahead of an CAD wedge for Friday afternoon. Showers will continue, becoming more variable in coverage. Precip will likely devolve into a combo drizzle and passing shower on Friday evening.

Low pressure will ride the front from southwest to northeast and offshore on Saturday. Lingering showers will be exiting the region late Friday night into Saturday morning. Total rainfall totals have decreased slightly. Precip has not been as uniform as expected this morning, therefore breaks in light to moderate showers have produced less rainfall.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Another round of rain possible early next week

Following mild temperatures this weekend, a cold front will push through the area late Sunday, followed by strong (~1040mb) high pressure building into the region early next week. At the same time, a weak coastal trough is expected to develop off the SE coast, tightening the gradient locally.

A trailing low-amplitude trough will bring a chance for some post frontal precip into the area beginning Monday, with light rain chances potentially lingering into midweek. The combination of the rain and widespread clouds associated with developing CAD could significantly temper daytime highs Monday and Tuesday, especially across inland areas.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Cold front to slowly drop southward tonight into Fri, crossing LBT 1st followed by ILM and FLO and finally pushing thru CRE and MYR. Ahead of the CF, expect periodic scattered showers with VFR dominating except possible MVFR from the shower and fog activity. After the CFP, look for overrunning low clouds dropping into the IFR category. In addition, reduced vsby from fog and/or intermittent light rain or drizzle that should remain above IFR thresholds. Both low clouds and stratiform pcpn will continue thru 00Z 2/28.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are to continue Fri night into Saturday afternoon as an area of low pressure develops along the front off the Carolina Coasts and finally lifts NE-ward out to sea. Look for VFR conditions by late Sat and continuing thru Sun. Brief flight restrictions possible Sun night into Mon as a CFP occurs, which will be followed with VFR strong high pressure Mon thru Tue.

MARINE

Through Friday... Gusty southwest winds continue through late this afternoon or early this evening. Waves will gradually improve after the gustiness subsides. Expect hazardous conditions to end around midnight tonight; no adjustments were necessary for the current Small Craft Advisory. As a cold front drifts southward tonight into Friday, the gradient will relax. Northerly winds should allow seas to improve with the shifting fetch.

Friday Night through Tuesday... The cold front will sag southeast across the waters Friday night into Saturday. In it's wake, the pressure gradient will relax with winds becoming predominately NE as weak high pressure into the region.

Another cold front will cross the waters Sunday move through the area late Sunday, followed by strong (~1040mb) high pressure building in early next week. At the same time, a weak coastal trough is expected to develop off the SE coast, tightening the gradient locally.

There is moderate to high confidence of Small Craft Advisory conditions developing, as early as Sunday night, with NELY winds increasing to 25-35 kts and seas building to 4-7 ft. A few gale- force gusts cannot be ruled out, but overall risk for a Gale Warning remains low at this time.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256.