textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation section for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible well into next week. Persistent rainfall should lead to meaningful drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible well into next week. Persistent rainfall should lead to meaningful drought relief.

A stalled front will remain in our area through today, moving to our north tonight. We'll then enter a warm summer-like air mass (PWATs ~2") where daily pop-up storms/showers will be possible along the seabreeze in the afternoon and then inland in the evening.

Rainfall totals could be locally higher with storms, as shown by the pockets of 2-3" that some of our area saw Friday. Today and Sunday are showing some signals for shortwaves slipping around the Bermuda high centered to our south. These could help to produce some deeper convection and heavier rainfall. Regardless of locally higher amounts, the current pattern could yield widespread 2-3" away from the immediate coast through the next 7 days. This would finally lead to some meaningful drought relief. For now the driest period looks to be Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Low MVFR/IFR stratus to affect FLO/LBT terminals early this morning, should dissipateby mid to late morning at the latest. In addition, showers will threaten both inland terminals due to forcing associated with the stalled front in the vicinity. The nocturnal Atlantic shower/tstorm engine to crank up, although not as prounced as Fri morning, but nevertheless, enough to include a Prob30 at the coastal terminals this morning. Activity will increase in coverage once the days insolation becomes established and will carry prevailing/tempo/prob30 groups for this convective coverage. The stalled front will lift to the VA/NC border late tonight, however Atlantic and Gulf moisture to continue to plague the forecast area with PWs progged at 1.50 to just under 2 inches, affect the FA. Weak embedded impulses aloft to keep convection firing later this morning and thru the daytime morning hrs.

Extended Forecast...MVFR cigs and vsby possible each early morning, especially across FLO/LBT terminals. Periodic convection, mainly diurnally driven, could result in flight restrictions across all terminals.

MARINE

Through tonight...Ridging from Bermuda high pressure centered well offshore from the Carolinas will continue to extend westward to and onshore the Carolinas. Meanwhile, the stalled front inland, will lift north as a warm front later today thru Sun morning. Modest sfc pg will result with ILM NC waters to experience mainly South winds and for the ILM SC Waters, SE-S winds. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kt coastal and around 15 to 15-20 kt for the adjacent offshore waters. Seas will remain modest at 2 to 4 ft for the coastal waters and up to 5 ft across the offshore waters. The SE swell at 8 to 10 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum thruout this fcst period.

Sunday through Thursday...Southwest winds 10kts increasing in the afternoons with the seabreeze. Seas 3-4 feet through the period with a SE swell at 7-9 seconds and an increasing NE swell into next week at 8-9 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.