textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated. Updated discussion for dangerous heat expected.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dangerous heat expected late this week through early next week, with well above normal temperatures and high humidity.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dangerous heat expected late this week through early next week, with well above normal temperatures and increasing humidity.

As we heat up under ridge aloft, the relatively drier air with lower dewpoints right now will be replaced by increasingly richer dewpoint air leading to increasing heat index values. The center of the upper ridge over the central to southern Appalachians will spread eastward over the next several days, but will weaken as it heads into the weekend. H5 heights will peak around 596 dam over inland Carolinas on Fri dropping down to 592 dam by late Sat. This will lead to temps reaching mid 90s to near 100 inland of the immediate coast beginning on Fri. Although the max heights aloft will be reached on Fri, the sfc winds will shift around to the south providing richer dewpoint air into the area. This will keep overnight lows higher and therefore keep daytime highs higher after a warm start to the day. Overall, expect dangerous heat through late week with potential for heat advisory conditions Fri into the weekend over mainly inland portions of our local forecast area.

There will also be plenty of sunshine as upper ridge provides increased subsidence leading to limited, if any clouds and virtually no chance of a shower until Sunday and most likely not until Monday when ridge weakens. Looking at the pcp water values, you can see the dry air nudging in from the east and not really reaching up to any substantial levels until Sunday into Monday when persistent southerly flow takes shape up through the atmosphere.

Regardless of the exact heat indices though, everyone is encouraged to plan ahead for the extended period of dangerously hot conditions and take proper precautions, especially given the holiday weekend and abundance of outdoor activities. You can visit our heat webpage (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for the latest heat forecast/safety info to help you plan and stay safe.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR conditions continue with FM groups addressing slight increase and veering of winds with aftn/early eve sea breeze and diminishing winds backing overnight with the land breeze, mainly over coastal terminals. Overall, winds will remain light out of the E-SE becoming more variable overnight.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR with generally dry conditions anticipated as high pressure prevails through the weekend keeping rain coverage very minimal. The better chance for restrictions will likely come from low clouds/fog each late night/morning.

MARINE

Wednesday night through Monday...Expect more easterly winds through Thursday as high pressure ridges in from the northeast. Winds should then shift more southerly Friday as a weak trough/low to the south shifts inland and Atlantic high pressure regains control. Expect stronger sea breezes starting late week as temperatures rise well above normal inland. Persistent and increasing southerly flow will push seas higher Sun through Mon. However, conditions should remain below headline thresholds through the period.

CLIMATE

High temperatures away from the coast are forecast to be near record levels late this week into early next week. Below are the daily records for July 3-7...

Friday, July 3: KILM: 97 / 1954 KLBT: 100 / 2019 KCRE: 95 / 1998 KFLO: 102 / 1954

Saturday, July 4: KILM: 100 / 1993 KLBT: 101 / 1905 KCRE: 97 / 1942 KFLO: 102 / 1993

Sunday, July 5: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 103 / 2024 KCRE: 97 / 1996 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Monday, July 6: KILM: 100 / 1902 KLBT: 102 / 2024 KCRE: 101 / 1990 KFLO: 103 / 2024

Tuesday, July 7: KILM: 102 / 1977 KLBT: 102 / 2010 KCRE: 99 / 1953 KFLO: 104 / 1954

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...None. MARINE...None.