textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure moving west-to- east across the region will bring rain Friday night and Saturday. Warming trend and rain-free conditions are then expected heading into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

*KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS* *Hazards: dry conditions will cause an enhanced fire danger in NC today *Rain Chances: none *Temps: below normal tonight; near normal Thu *Confidence: high

Details: High pressure nosing in from the southwest will give way to a passing trough/weak cold front tonight. Not much air mass change expected but it will kick up winds a bit and with some clouds as well we don't expect it to be nearly as cold overnight as it was this AM. Most locales should stay near freezing, especially away from the coast. More sunshine and westerly winds will help boost temps back to near normal in the mid to upper 50s Thursday with dry weather continuing.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

A dissipating front will be lifting north from the area Thursday night. Friday then brings a moistening from the top down, first from the divergence from the left exit of a 250mb jet streak, then by increasingly low warm advection. Assuming this is correct expect increasingly dim sunshine as Friday progresses and cloud bases lower. By the end of Friday night the deep layer ascent goes all the way up to 300mb according to model cross section. The forecast thus shows a gradual encroachment of rain chances from west to east during the latter (after 06Z) part of Friday night. Thursday night will be seasonably cool whereas Friday and Friday night will be elevated slight above climatology.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

A flat wave of low pressure will move east along a nearly stationary boundary on Saturday. This will bring some much needed rain to the area though recent model flip-flopping is still leading to some uncertainty as to how much will fall in any given locale. Dry air arrives quickly on Sunday for a return of full sunshine. With low amplitude aloft temperatures will run close to seasonable norms. The rest of the period will feature a low amplitude ridge across the Gulf leading to zonal mid level flow locally while at the surface high pressure drifts east across the region. Expect ample sunshine and a gradual warmup.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

High confidence in VFR thru 18Z/01. A dry surface trough will push through the region tonight, with LLWS expected from around midnight until around sunrise as a westerly 2k ft jet around 40-45 kt moves through.

Extended Outlook...Mainly MVFR to IFR conditions likely in rain, and possibly a few thunderstorms, Saturday and Saturday night as a storm system impacts the area.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High confidence this period. High pressure nosing in from the southwest today will give way to a passing trough/weak cold front tonight which will bring a period of Small Craft Advisory conditions (gusts to 30 kt). The pressure gradient will then slacken again Thu leading to improving conditions.

Thursday night through Monday... Very weak gradient with a frontal boundary stalled east-west at the start of the period. Light winds and in the absence of any swell diminutive seas. Changes in store for Saturday as a flat wave of low pressure traversing the front approaches from the west. Models have been having trough resolving the latitude at which the low moves across the waters with obvious implications to the wind forecast. Locations south of the low should acquire a moderate warm advection/SWrly flow while areas along and north of it will maintain rather light and variable winds. As the low moves out to sea Saturday night into Sunday there now appears to be a stronger push of high pressure and northerly winds should approach but generally fall short of advisory levels. These winds should be slow to abate on Monday even as the low moves further out to sea, it's increased distance offset by its increasing size and strength. A northeasterly swell will increasingly join the wind waves to keep seas elevated.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.