textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Watch/Warning/Advisory section for recently issued Beach Hazards Statement for strong longshore current Wednesday for east-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

2) A developing coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and storms today, turning cool and cloudy with periods of rain Wednesday and Thursday.

Very persistent area of showers with an embedded lightning strike or two has plagued the coast this morning. There are recent signs of this activity weakening and developing inland in a more organized fashion where there has been some heating. Pops could linger into the evening hours inland. By Wednesday a developing Rex block will push a strong NE flow into the area limiting any rainfall to drizzle or sprinkles and a prolonged period of NE winds and cooler weather. Highs will mostly be in the 70s approaching 80 once again late in the weekend while lows pegged into the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A developing coastal storm off the Mid- Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions mid to late week.

Strong northeast winds and increasing astronomical tides will lead to hazardous marine and coastal conditions, including minor coastal flooding and dangerous rip currents. High surf is possible as well which could lead to some beach erosion, especially north of Cape Fear. See Marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Mostly VFR to start the 00Z TAF period prior to a passing cold front overnight and increasing risk for MVFR/IFR cigs into Wed morning, especially inland, with even a low risk for LIFR cigs. There is a moderate to high risk for MVFR cigs to then linger thru the rest of the period as a high pressure wedge pattern sets up trapping low-level moisture in place. Otherwise, expect a low to moderate risk for showers pretty much anytime, mainly on the light side w/ no significant vsby restrictions likely. Gusty NE winds will also develop late tonight, especially near the coast, before spreading inland thru the day Wed.

Extended Outlook...High likelihood of MVFR w/ occasional IFR cigs into Thu morning, then low to moderate chance later Thu thru at least Fri morning. Mainly VFR expected thereafter.

MARINE

A very broad baroclinic zone resides just to the north of the area and is expanding in scope as a classic Rex blocking pattern develops. This will eventually send down a shipment of NE winds that will persist for several days and prompt a Small Craft Advisory initially then possibly a Gale Warning. Significant seas will be persistent with the winds with 6-8 feet outer waters. The shadow of Caper Fear will hold seas to around 4 feet but north of this area the higher seas will be in play.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Wednesday through Wednesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM Wednesday to 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.