textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 7am... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

As of 210am... Forecast diurnal temperature ranges have been widened by a couple of degrees today through Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

2) Heat and humidity will return next week with summertime showers and thunderstorms possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

Unseasonably chilly air has been brought across the Carolinas in the northerly flow between low pressure offshore and high pressure across the Great Lakes. The coldest 850 mb temps, around +8C, should occur this morning. Strong June sunshine will mix up and well beyond the 850 mb layer yielding high temperatures in the lower 80s for most areas today along with wind gusts as high as 25 mph through early this afternoon.

The surface high will reach the central Appalachians tonight. Lighter winds tonight mean despite the overall moderating airmass there's a better chance for a decoupled boundary layer and temperatures should once again reach the 50s for most locations.

The high will push offshore Friday with dry weather and warming temperatures anticipated through Saturday. A mid and upper level ridge over the Southeast should keep the atmosphere capped to deep convection despite rising surface temperatures and dewpoints.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Heat and humidity will return next week with summertime showers and thunderstorms possible.

Mid and upper level ridging should push east and off the coast by Sunday, coincident with an increasing flow of Gulf moisture from the west and southwest. This could lead to isolated showers or thunderstorms returning Sunday, with better chances expected Monday into Tuesday as the next cold front approaches from the north. High temperatures next week should reach 85-90 degrees with dewpoints back in the 65-70 degree range.

AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions should continue for the next 24 hours. Expect winds to increase this morning to 10-15 kt with gusts around 20-25 kts possible starting late this morning, mainly at coastal terminals. A patch of scattered to broken altocumulus is expected to slide southward this afternoon and may limit gustiness at coastal terminals after about 20Z, depending on how extensive it is. Winds should die down quickly at sunset, but dry air aloft will preclude any fog formation despite clear skies.

Extended Forecast...Aside from a low potential for ground fog Saturday and Sunday mornings, VFR conditions should continue.

MARINE

There's a 15 mb pressure difference between low pressure centered a few hundred miles east of Cape Fear and high pressure moving southward from the Great Lakes. Northeast winds at 20 to occasionally 25 kt will continue through this morning before a diminishing this afternoon. Wind speeds should diminish further tonight and Thursday as the high reaches the central Appalachians, and then finally moves off the Carolina coastline on Friday.

Strong NE winds over the past day have built an impressive northeasterly swell with dominant wave periods lengthening to around 10 seconds this afternoon into this evening. Wave heights should remain large enough to keep the Small Craft Advisory in effect for the SC coastal waters through this evening, and into tonight for the NC waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through this evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ254- 256.