textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Latest hi-res guidance indicate even lower shower chances for our area today, with the cold front racing out ahead. Best chance for a shower and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is coastal Cape Fear. Aviation discussion has been updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Cold frontal passage early today will be accompanied by decaying showers with cooler and drier air behind it.

2) Minor coastal flooding forecasted at the beaches this evening, and Downtown Wilmington Sunday and Monday evenings.

3) Mainly dry and breezy at times Monday through the week with lingering drought and fire weather concerns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold frontal passage early today will be accompanied by decaying showers with cooler and drier air behind it.

Cold front currently approaching western NC will move across our area late this morning and be offshore by early afternoon. The front will be accompanied by decaying showers as upper level support remains well to the north and moisture becomes limited. Pops increase slightly near the coast to around 30% right behind the front where some meager elevated instability may develop. Winds will be breezy along and just behind the front with gusts 25-30 mph, and could see a few gusts around 35mph mainly across SE NC. Temperatures and dewpoints will fall rapidly behind the front, leading to a non- typical diurnal curve with high temps early today. Lows tonight are forecasted in the low 40s, with a small chance of temperatures dropping into the upper 30s in traditional cold spots as high pressure briefly prevails.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding forecasted at the beaches this evening, and Downtown Wilmington Sunday and Monday evenings.

With new moon this past Friday, above normal astronomical tides may lead to another round of minor coastal flooding along SE NC and NE SC coastline with this evening's high tide. There is potential for offshore flow behind today's cold front to mitigate the current tidal anomaly enough where water levels don't reach flood stage. Minor coastal flooding is also forecasted along the Lower Cape Fear River at Downtown Wilmington during the overnight high tide Sunday and Monday nights.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Mainly dry and breezy at times Monday through the week with lingering drought and fire weather concerns.

Colder and drier conditions are expected to start the work week. Breezy at times (mainly Mon/Wed/Fri/Sat) as well as warming temps later in the week will result in a continuation of fire danger concerns. Unfortunately, the only chance of rain looks to be on Saturday as a cold front approaches, although wouldn't get your hopes up too high for any substantial rainfall. Otherwise, still looks like the risk for frost inland is pretty low Mon night.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Cold front will move quickly across the area late this morning through midday. Showers will decay as front approaches, with rain chances continuing to diminish. Best chance for showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is coastal Cape Fear, but coverage and confidence too low for TAF inclusion. NNW winds 15-20 kts with gusts around 25 kts behind the front through this afternoon, with a chance for a few gusts near 30 kts across SE NC. Wind speeds will quickly improve around sunset as high pressure briefly prevails.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Thursday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...15-20 kt southwesterly winds will quickly turn northerly this afternoon as a cold front moves off the coast.The strongest winds will be this afternoon and this evening behind the front, with 20-25 kt winds out to 20NM and 25-30 kt winds between 20NM and 60NM. Could see a few gale-force gusts in the offshore waters late this afternoon, but confidence in frequent gusts not tied to convection is too low to issue a gale warning. Scattered thunderstorms are forecasted along and just behind the front this afternoon, with best chance across the waters off the SE NC coast. The seas across 0-20NM coastal waters is generally in the 3-4 ft range through tonight, with N wind wave replacing SW wave component. For 20-60NM waters, 4-5ft seas this morning will increase to 4-6 ft late this afternoon through tonight, with a few 7 footers possible late tonight.

Monday through Thursday Night...Cooler high pressure will prevail early in the period before it shifts offshore and southerly winds kick back in Tue night. Should see some wind enhancement later Wed/Wed night due to a tightening pressure gradient from an approaching cold front but gusts should mainly stay below 25 kt, especially given the cooler water. With significant waves staying about 4 ft or less we don't anticipate any significant threat for wind/sea headlines even in the offshore 20-60 NM zones.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.