textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes made for the afternoon forecast package. Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will continue to ridge into the area through the weekend with mostly dry conditions and residual marine impacts expected. Rain chances will increase some the first part of next week, mainly for coastal areas, followed by A better rainfall chances Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will continue to ridge into the area through the weekend with mostly dry conditions and residual marine impacts expected. Rain chances will increase some the first part of next week, mainly for coastal areas, followed by better rainfall chances Thursday.

Ridging aloft and exiting surface high/weakening ridge axis will maintain dry conditions through the weekend. A second surface high will ridge in from the north, then northeast by early next week with increasing rain chances, especially for coastal areas, given the development of a weak coastal trough. By mid-week an area of low pressure will approach from the Deep South while the surface ridge axis attempts to hold on across the area. Eventually deeper moisture will overspread the area Thursday into Friday bringing a better chance of rain across a large portion of the forecast area. Rainfall amounts don't appear to be too significant based on ensembles with either event. Moisture will remain limited with the coastal trough nearby, and while Thursday's rainfall may be more widespread this system is expected to move by faster. Temperatures will be above climo on Friday then highs at or just above normal this weekend. Lows will remain above normal through the period.

The full moon was earlier in the week and astronomical levels continue to drop. However, there is still the potential for some coastal flooding especially downtown ILM with high tide tomorrow. At the beaches the water levels with high tide will be marginal as well, especially for the northeast SC beaches.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...High pressure ridging across the area from the NE will be replaced by another ridge from the N this weekend which will lead to another ramp-up in NEly winds during Saturday. Winds will likely exceed Small Craft thresholds across the coastal waters with the potential for another long duration Small Craft event. Much uncertainty exists by early next week however maritime conditions will most likely not be favorable through Tuesday given the resiliency of the fetch. While 4-7 ft seas will be common across the coastal waters seas will be steeper offshore aided by the fetch direction and the Gulf Stream. Increasing chances for showers and possible a few thunderstorms, especially for the offshore waters later this weekend and the first part of the upcoming week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for AMZ250-252- 254-256.