textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat Advisory has been expanded to included Bladen county today with the latest forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday.

2) Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mostly dry midweek with potential for extreme heat today through Friday.

Today will kick off an extended period of hot and humid weather across our area with mid-level ridge extending across the Southeast from the Atlantic. Forecasted afternoon temperatures each day this week is in the upper 90s, with potential for a few sites reaching 100F at least one day this week. Combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices each afternoon will easily eclipse triple digits. Mixing down of drier air each afternoon may alleviate some of the humidity, but overall looking at multiple days of heat products needed. For today, a Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal counties, and have added Bladen county to the advisory based on latest forecast. NWS HeatRisk highlights potential for extreme impacts from heat for our area Wed - Fri, with lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little to no relief.

Rain chances are relatively low through early Friday due to the ridge's influence. Several upper impulses may lead to widely scattered showers moving into our area later today and again late Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

The next best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday and during the day Saturday. The upper air pattern should amplify late this week as a longwave trough takes shape just off the East Coast and the former Bermuda ridge retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow aloft may push a cold front southward into the Carolinas Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures for the weekend and an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR. Lingering winds and drier air will hinder fog/stratus formation through morning, though shallow ground fog may develop especially where rain fell earlier today and winds go calm. Mostly clear skies during the day with a few diurnal cumulus clouds around 4-5 kft. Relatively light winds out of the west- southwest, with a southerly sea breeze pinned at the coast (impacting MYR/CRE) this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again late Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

Through Saturday...West-southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday due to Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts each afternoon/evening. Seas around 2-3 ft through Friday, with 4 footers in the 20-60nm zones Friday afternoon, primarily due to SSW wind wave with a weak ESE swell mixed in. A cold front will approach from the north late Friday, moving across the area sometime Friday night or Saturday, turning winds northeasterly for Saturday. The front will also be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm chances.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.