textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation section for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure to the northeast weakens today, though minor coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf conditions continue.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure to the northeast weakens today, though minor coastal flooding and adverse marine and surf conditions continue.

Northeast winds continue, albeit with lower speeds as high pressure northeast of the area weakens and moves farther offshore. However, strong, dangerous rip currents as well as strong long shore currents, for east facing beaches, remain a concern through the end of the week. Marine forecast details can be found in the marine discussion.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the late morning/midday high tides. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for this morning's high tides.

High pressure at the surface and aloft will keep the region dry for the next several days. Cloud cover around this morning with low level moisture moving onshore. The enhanced moisture and weak low level convergence may lead to a few sprinkles along the SC coast around daybreak. At the surface, high pressure continues to weaken today, decreasing northeast winds. Temperatures above normal through Fri before a dry cold front moving in from the north Fri night drops temperatures near normal for the weekend. Rain chances may return late Sun or Sun night as a front system affects the Southeast. Confidence in timing and amounts remains limited.

AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Generally VFR through the valid TAF period. Low potential for some brief MVFR ceilings AoA 2k ft through around 14Z. Overall potential is low with ceilings more likely to be in the 3k-4k ft range and transient. There will be periods of time through daybreak when skies are clear to mostly clear. Northeast winds continue today and tonight with speeds decreasing as the high, now centered to the northeast, weakens. Few if any gusts this afternoon with speeds under 10 kt at all terminals. Light winds tonight along with increased boundary layer moisture may set the stage for some MVFR/IFR fog, especially for inland terminals as the TAF period comes to an end. Confidence is low right now, but something to keep an eye on.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Sunday outside of patchy fog Friday morning. MVFR/IFR possible Sunday night into Monday morning with the next system.

MARINE

Small Craft Advisory continues, although based on latest buoy obs it may be a bit marginal outside of 15-20 NM miles. Northeast winds continue into next week, but speeds will be decreasing through Fri as high pressure to the northeast continues to weaken. Cold front moves in from the north Fri night, followed by a surge in northeast flow this weekend. Speeds peak around 20 kt, but will stay on the high end of the 15-20 kt range through Mon. Seas will flirt with advisory thresholds Sat-Mon, especially for the 10-20 NM portion of the nearshore waters. The presence of the easterly swell, which will be 4-5 ft this weekend, coupled with a strengthened wind wave may be enough to warrant an advisory. Winds and seas will be a little higher for the 20-60 NM waters this weekend and early next week, with northeast flow 20-25 kt and seas 5-7 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EDT Thursday for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 3 PM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents from 8 AM EDT Thursday through Thursday evening for NCZ108. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 9 AM to noon EDT Thursday for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.