textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Flood Advisory in effect until 10 PM EDT for northern Robeson County, including Red Springs, Maxton, St. Pauls, Shannon, Buie, Rex, Prospect, Wakulla, Tolarsville, Parkton, Rennert, and Lumber Bridge. Up to 5 inches of rain have fallen in some of these spots, with more on the way.

Frontal boundary is lingering over the northern portion of the forecast area, generally along a line from KHVS to KBBP to north of KLBT and KEYF. The heaviest rainfall is located right along this boundary, while areas to the south are generally in a lull at this point. Some isolated showers in the coastal counties show signs of isentropic lift, which is evident at 300K up to 320K. That lift will allow for more rain to overspread along the coast during the overnight hours as the front tries to sag southward.

Edged up the hourly rain chances accordingly to align with the current trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Widespread showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this weekend in association with an approaching cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and a few thunderstorms are expected this weekend in association with an approaching cold front.

Deep moisture over the area will interact with an approaching front and weak upper level support to produce showers and isolated thunderstorms into Monday. The event may transition into a more isentropically driven regime with time as the front sags south and SW flow aloft increases above the cool air Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

A grab bag of VFR, MVFR, and IFR to open the 00Z TAF period. A lull in the activity has persisted along KILM, KCRE, and KMYR, where VFR ceilings are found, even in -RA. Frontal boundary is lingering just north of KLBT, draping down towards Darlington County, where radar is picking up a line of rain along this boundary. KFLO and KLBT are already dealing with ceiling restrictions, but now the rain is starting to drop down towards these terminals, which will become the main focus over the next few hours. Overnight, the rain will eventually shift down towards KCRE and KMYR generally from 05-09Z, reaching KILM by 07-11Z. In between rain, fog and low stratus may bring any terminal down to IFR or even LIFR, particularly inland. May have a second burst of rain sometime after 15Z and into Sunday afternoon at the coastal terminals, but should cease over the inland terminals. However, inland terminals may still be dealing with IFR all day Sunday.

Extended Outlook...Looks like IFR and even LIFR likely Sunday night. IFR may linger for much of Monday before VFR returns Monday night. VFR should then dominate through Thursday, except for some low chances of morning fog.

MARINE

Light southerly flow continues today and may continue uninterrupted through Sun. There are now some indications the front that had been expected to sag south, will remain north and west of the waters, with the weak gradient keeping speeds 10 kt or less. The front now appears to move offshore Sun night with west and then northwest winds setting up. No real strong northerly push right behind the front with north to northeast flow not increasing until Mon night or Tue. Still expect to see headline conditions develop once the surge arrives, likely Mon night or Tuesday. Anticipate seeing a couple days worth of headlines.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.