textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather will persist for most of the upcoming week. Below normal temperatures with frost and/or freeze conditions are expected each night and early morning through the middle of the upcoming week.

The mid/upper trough will deamplify, but linger across the eastern U.S. through at least Tuesday, with the axis shifting toward the east as a well amplified ridge extends from the Gulf Coast across the OH Valley and into the Great Lakes region. Moisture will remain very limited with this pattern, especially with the surface high also helping to suppress any return flow through the upcoming week. This period of dry weather will add to the rainfall deficiencies the area has experienced so far this year. ILM's departure from normal is more than 11 inches, Florence and Lumberton more than 10 inches, and more than 20 inches in the Myrtle Beach area!

In addition to the dry conditions, the swath of cold air supported by high pressure over the MS valley will result in freezing temperatures early this morning. Coastal areas are expected to be slightly warmer, but will experience areas of frost, especially away from the beaches. As a result, the inland Freeze Warning and coastal Frost Advisory remain in effect until 9 AM EST this morning. Frost looks likely again tonight into early Monday morning, with a few spots reaching freezing again. Frost is a good bet late each night into the early morning, especially inland areas through the middle of the upcoming week. Temperatures climb above normal by about Thursday or so.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR through the 12Z TAF period with NW winds veering to N later today and tonight about 10 kt or less.

Extended Outlook...VFR through Thursday.

MARINE

Through Thursday...Gentle to moderate breeze out of the NW will gradually veer to the N this evening, then NE by Monday. NE flow locks in through Thursday, remaining consistent at a moderate breeze along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to a fresh breeze out 60 nm. Seas improve to 1-3 ft through tonight, before increasing to 2-3 ft along the coastal waters, 4-5 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm by Tuesday. Seas should continue to increase Wednesday and Thursday, up to 2-4 ft along the coastal waters, 5-6 ft along the offshore waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096-099- 105-109. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ106>108-110. SC...Freeze Warning until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. Frost Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.