textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Areas of fog possible tonight into Sunday morning, potentially dense in some inland locations

2) Hazardous marine conditions likely early Monday through Tuesday for local coastal waters.

3) Cold air damming wedge will lead to a cool start to the work week.

4) Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, late week.

KEY MESSAGE 4

Summer-like weather, with well above normal temperatures and chance of thunderstorms, late week.

WAA around Bermuda high pressure will lead to well above normal temperatures Wednesday into next weekend, with highs around 80F in the forecast for Friday and Saturday. Combined with dewpoints in the low 60s, will see adequate surface based instability each afternoon starting Thursday. While mid level subsidence will limit convective potential Thursday, the inversion weakens Friday and Saturday and scattered afternoon thunderstorms may be possible with weak wind profiles present. Sea breeze will certainly be present with the expected high temps, which will aid in precipitations chances during the day.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Continued low-level dry air advection should allow the lingering IFR to MVFR ceilings to gradually scour out between Sat 21z to Sun 00z. However, some sub-VFR ceilings could persist longer given the weak flow.

Mostly clear skies, light to calm winds, and wet soils from recent rainfall, will be favorable for fog development overnight. The greatest restrictions are expected inland at KFLO and KLBT, where VSBYs may drop to IFR and possibly LIFR. Coastal terminals should remain more in the MVFR range.

Fog should erode and mix out between 12 to 15z Sunday, with VFR conditions through the remainder of the afternoon.

Extended Forecast...A back-door cold front will move through the area Sunday evening into Sunday night. A wedge of cool high pressure combined with weak overrunning lift will bring a chance of some spotty light rain and sub-VFR restrictions, mainly in the form of ceilings, Sunday night through Tuesday. Aviation conditions should gradually improve by Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Sunday...An offshore cold front will continue to drift eastward and farther out to sea, allowing weak high pressure to settle over the waters. Northerly winds of 5-15 kts will diminish this evening, becoming light at 5-10kts tonight. Winds will remain light Sunday, veering to southerly ahead of an approaching back-door cold front.

Sunday Night through Thursday...Northeasterly winds and seas will be increasing throughout Sunday night, with SCA conditions expected by daybreak Monday with winds 20-25 kts, gusts near 30 kts, and seas 5-7 ft during the day. Conditions begin to improve late Monday, and while winds turn onshore and lower to around 10 kts during the day Tuesday, 6 foot seas linger into Tuesday evening, especially for southeast NC coastal waters. Benign marine conditions expected mid to late week, with south- southeast winds and 3-4 ft seas.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.