textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No large scale forecast changes since the last update.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Hot and largely rain-free returns.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Hot and largely rain-free returns.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... WV imagery shows strong mid level ridging over the nation's midsection, elongated southeastward into the MidAtlantic and still plenty of moisture into southern NC and the Gulf States. This evening's shower activity should be the last we see for a while, at least of any significance as the ridge will continue to expand southeastward, the highest heights aloft remaining north of the area. Meanwhile at the surface winds will gradually turn to the S and SW over the next day or two building humidity in addition to the heat. Several days of Heat Advisories appear likely starting Friday if not Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Northeasterly flow paired with seasonable humidity will tend to favor coastal areas for showers and storm in the very near term. Despite the lack of much of a N/S instability gradient SC cells have far outperformed in coverage and intensity. Activity will wane overnight as winds grow light. Guidance is depicting both fog and low stratus forming inland overnight, seemingly thus most likely at FLO and LBT, hitting the former a bit harder than the latter. VFR for Wednesday with light and veering winds.

Extended Forecast... High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wed through Sat.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday... As high pressure moves offshore winds will become light and variable through most of Wednesday (though veering will try to come and dominate). It may take until Thursday now until a more typical S to SW flow becomes re-established. This should interrupt the currently established easterly swell to shorten the dominant period as the admittedly diminutive wind waves become the dominant wave. Heading into the end of the period the persistence of the fetch paired with a thermally-induced Piedmont trough strengthens the wind fields by about a category or two, which is still quite the norm for the date.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.