textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expect lower rainfall chances with the higher PWAT environment shifting offshore today. Another Coastal Flood Advisory issued for high tide around Noon today for the lower Cape Fear River/downtown ILM.

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Deep Gulf moisture and a break in the ridge aloft will maintain some chances for showers and thunderstorms today.

2) A modified Canadian airmass will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions to the area beginning Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Deep Gulf moisture and a break in the ridge aloft will maintain some chances for showers and thunderstorms today.

After a quick initial round of some showers and isolated thunderstorms early this morning trends continue to suggest lower PoPs across the forecast area today. The impulse moving through early this morning will help to displace the high PWAT airmass off the coast. The coastal areas will have the best (albeit low) chances along the sea breeze this afternoon. Otherwise, temperatures will be well above normal today all locations, but that will be changing by Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A modified Canadian airmass will bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions to the area beginning Tuesday.

A cold front moving through Monday night will gradually allow for cooler and drier air to move across the forecast area Tuesday through mid-week. Moisture appears limited as the front moves through thus only low PoPs will be included at this time. High temperatures will likely be a a couple degrees below normal Tuesday and near seasonable Wednesday through Thursday. A airmass will be much drier as well with some of the lower PWATs that we have observed in a while. A few inland areas may see upper 50s, especially Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

IFR restrictions across our inland areas will be patchy and intermittent over the next few hours before rising to VFR. Showers and storms will be limited to coastal terminals this afternoon, better chances along the Cape Fear. Maintained VCTS due to the anticipated brevity and limited coverage.

Extended Outlook...A low potential exists for some early morning stratus or fog affecting KLBT and KFLO late Sunday night into Monday morning. VFR conditions should prevail Monday through Wednesday as a more stable and drier Canadian airmass builds in from the north.

MARINE

Sunday through Thursday...SWly flow will prevail today and tonight. The flow will begin to veer as a cold front approaches Monday. As the front passes Monday night and a ridge of high pressure builds in from the north a NEly surge of winds will spread southward across the waters. This surge will likely result in Small Craft conditions that will extend into Tuesday. The NEly fetch will continue Wednesday but will gradually weaken by this time. A surface trough, or weak low, may approach the offshore waters from the E during Thursday, but confidence is very low at this time. Plan to continue with NEly winds across the waters Thursday until the picture becomes more clear. Seas will build Monday night and with the fetch counter to the Gulf Stream conditions are expected to be fairly steep across the offshore waters. The prolonged period of NE winds will make it difficult for seas to subside.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.