textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track as we hit 1 AM EST. Aviation discussion updated below for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) One more day of unseasonably warm weather Thursday, before a cold front sinks temperatures below normal for the foreseeable future. Frost/freeze potential exists multiple nights this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...One more day of unseasonably warm weather Thursday, before a cold front sinks temperatures below normal for the foreseeable future. Frost/freeze potential exists multiple nights this weekend.

Latest surface analysis shows a cold front well offshore of the Carolinas, while another front is knocking on the door of Middle Tennessee and Appalachia. This front will be the main focus of the forecast, as it is poised to sweep through the area late Thursday into Friday morning.

Little moisture associated with this front, and should mainly just manifest as some extra cloud cover Thursday. The atmosphere will try to squeeze out a few sprinkles, but by and large, most will stay dry. Pre-frontal warming will allow high temperatures to shoot up into the mid-to-upper 70s this afternoon. WSW winds may gust up to 30 mph at times this afternoon, but those gusts come down by this evening.

Cooler air starts to seep in tonight, and lows dip into the low-to-mid 40s. Highs only get into the lower 60s Friday, some 13-15 degrees cooler than the day before. True cold air advection kicks off Friday night, with chilly lows in the mid 30s inland, lower 40s at the coast. Those temperatures inland potentially start raising frost concerns, especially combined with relative humidity up to 70-80% that night. However, it might be a tad too breezy for frost formation. That may shape up to be a tricky forecast.

Temperatures continue to trend colder, with highs not even leaving the 50s this weekend and into early next week. Frost and freeze looks much more apparent each night from Saturday night onward. Frost Advisories and Freeze Warnings may be needed.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR through the 12Z TAF period. Winds will increase quickly after sunrise with gusts developing by mid morning. Observations already show some gustiness along the immediate coast. Winds from the WSW could gust up to around 25 knots this afternoon. Winds turn northwesterly this evening behind a dry cold front. Some gustiness may continue this evening, but most of the area should see lighter winds by 00Z-03Z.

Extended Outlook... VFR through Monday. May have more gusty winds out of the NW Friday and Saturday, but shouldn't be as bad as what we are expecting today.

MARINE

Through Monday...One cold front is now well offshore of the waters, while another front to the west will be approaching the waters throughout today and tonight. Gradient winds out of the SW will be tightening, going from a moderate/fresh breeze up to a strong breeze. Small Craft Advisory will go into effect from 10 AM EST this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Meanwhile, a Gale Warning will go into effect from 2 PM EST this afternoon until 1 AM EST Friday for the waters from Surf City, NC to Little River Inlet, SC from 20-60 nm. Seas will range from 3-6 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 8 ft over the offshore waters out 60 nm.

Once the front moves over the waters late tonight, winds will veer to the NW and gradually start to improve to a moderate to fresh breeze, remaining that way through at least Saturday evening. Seas will also improve to 1-3 ft over the coastal waters, 3-4 ft over the offshore waters. Continued veering to the NNW expected Sunday, even to the NNE by Monday. Winds improve slightly towards a moderate breeze by that point.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254-256. Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST Friday for AMZ280.