textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

Beach Hazards Statement issued for strong longshore currents Tuesday for east-facing beaches.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Seabreeze Showers & Storms Possible This Afternoon; Cold Front Brings More Organized Activity Tonight.

- 2) Unseasonably Cool Weather Tuesday and Wednesday, Gradually Warming Up Throughout the Week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Unseasonably Cool Weather Tuesday and Wednesday, Gradually Warming Up Throughout the Week.

Canadian high pressure slips in behind the cold front, creating much cooler and drier weather Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs Tuesday only reach the mid-to-upper 70s Tuesday, which looks more like mid-late April than early June. Tuesday night, lows may drop down into the upper 40s in some of the cold spots of Pender County. Temperatures rebound slightly on Wednesday, but several areas still likely won't hit 80 degrees just yet. On top of it all, dewpoints sink down into the 40s and 50s.

Temperatures and dewpoints both start to steadily rise each day through the rest of the week. By Sunday, some inland areas may try to reach 90 degrees. Dewpoints in the 60s return Friday. Dry forecast remains.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. A cold front will cause some showers/storms overnight which will be pushing closer to the coast with time and ending by around 12Z. MVFR cigs are a decent bet at times into Tue, especially in association with the rain tonight. There is even a low risk for IFR conds overnight. Otherwise, gusty NE winds will kick in toward daybreak and gust up to around 20 kt much of the day.

Extended Forecast...Widespread VFR expected Tuesday night through Friday. Only exception could be some patchy fog heading into sunrise Thursday morning.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...Gentle breeze out of the southeast gradually becomes more variable late tonight as a cold front sweeps southward through the waters. Prior to the frontal passage, seas along the coastal waters out 20 nm linger at 2-4 ft, up to 4-5 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm. After the front moves through, stiff northeasterly flow sets in, kicking up to a fresh to strong breeze. Small Craft Advisory will go into effect at 8 AM EDT for the coastal waters from Surf City to Little River Inlet, and then at 11 AM EDT for the coastal waters from Little River Inlet to South Santee River. Seas increase to 4-6 ft over the coastal waters, 6-9 ft over the offshore waters.

Tuesday Night through Friday...Northeasterly winds will gradually come down towards a moderate to fresh breeze, with the Small Craft Advisory due to expire at 2 AM EDT Thursday. From there, winds back slightly to the north, coming down to a gentle to moderate breeze, before veering towards the southeast by Thursday evening. Seas over the coastal waters come down to 2-4 ft, offshore waters down to 4-6 ft. Winds and seas continue to come down through Friday, with winds being more variable at times under high pressure.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ254-256.