textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beneficial rain expected from late Friday through Saturday.

2) The Lower Cape Fear River should experience minor coastal flooding during the next few evening high tide cycles.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Beneficial rain expected from late Friday through Saturday.

A few areas of low pressure are likely to track along a generally stalled front nearby to our southeast late week while unseasonably deep moisture and plenty of shortwave energy and upper jet divergence move into the area ahead of an upper trough. These conditions should support the best chance for widespread decent (>0.5") rainfall in quite a while, mainly from late Friday night thru Saturday. The 13Z NBM probs for 48-hr rainfall totals >1" from Friday through Saturday night are at least 50% across all of SE NC and NE SC, generally highest east of I-95. Some of the high-res deterministic/ensemble model data even indicates the potential for localized amounts of 2+". Although we are currently seeing significant drought conditions across the area, these higher end rainfall amounts could lead to minor flooding, especially if it occurs quickly and over more vulnerable urban areas. Although we should stay on the cooler/northern side of the front through the event, we could still see a few rumbles of thunder (mainly due to elevated instability), especially near the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2: The Lower Cape Fear River should experience minor coastal flooding during the next few evening high tide cycles.

Latest gage forecasts for the Lower Cape Fear River has it reaching minor coastal flood thresholds (5.5 ft mllw) during this evenings high tide cycle as well as the next couple of evenings. At this time, the next few evening forecasts reach above 5.5 ft mllw. This will effect locations in the vicinity of the river from downtown Wilmington and southward. Look for the potential for minor flooding to occur in generally a 3 hour window centered around high tide. High tide Thu evening is at 952 pm and Fri evening at 1032 pm and Sat evening at 1111 pm.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR with the chance of some scattered clouds ~3-5 kft. Light north winds will increase to near 6-10 kts around midnight as high pressure ridges down from the north. Winds will then further turn to out of the east by the afternoon with the possibility of showers at the coast, lower chances inland for now.

Extended Forecast...Expect flight restrictions late Fri into Sat as the frontal boundary lifts northward to or just south of the area and sfc low develops along it and pushes out to sea. Looking at mainly stratiform rains and low ceilings with MVFR/IFR likely Fri night thru Sat evening. VFR returns late Sat night thru Mon. Fog/low clouds possible Mon night as low-level moisture returns.

MARINE

Through Friday...Cold front will stall south of the area tonight while high pressure from the north ridges across the area, resulting with a NNE-NE surge of 15 to 20 kt winds with periodic 25 kt gusts across the offshore waters toward morning. As high pressure shifts offshore north of the waters on Friday, expect northeasterly winds of 15 kts or so to continue veering to a more easterly direction while weakening to around 10 kts or so. Low pressure will begin to develop along the front to the south through Fri aftn. Seas generally 2 to 3 ft with some 4 footers across the offshore waters later tonight.

Friday night through Monday Night... A few areas of low pressure are likely to move along a basically stalled front offshore late week. Increasing northerly winds on Saturday could necessitate a Small Craft Advisory for at least the NC nearshore coastal waters as gusts reach near 25 kt and seas possibly near 6 ft. Gusts could also reach close to gale force (34+ kt) beyond 20 nm Saturday into Saturday night. Winds/seas will subside a bit Saturday night as strengthening low pressure moves farther off to the northeast and then much moreso Sunday as high pressure builds in. The high will then migrate offshore setting up a return of southerly winds starting Sunday night with benign conditions persisting through Monday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.