textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAFs.

Issued a Coastal Flood Advisory for minor flooding during the high tide this evening along the Lower Cape Fear River. Issued a Small Craft Advisory for an extended period of high seas and stiff northerly winds beginning Friday evening. Should reach Gales by Sunday in most of the outer waters.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the next 7 days.

2) The threat for minor coastal flooding will increase later this week along with hazardous marine/surf conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the next 7 days.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather for the next week leading to dry conditions and generally near to below normal temperatures. A few showers could brush the coast, especially around Cape Fear, starting this weekend.

Northeasterly winds will also pick up again late week, especially near the coast, as low pressure develops near The Bahamas leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient between it and the high building down the east coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...The threat for minor coastal flooding will increase later this week along with hazardous marine/surf conditions.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas should once again lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions later this week. An extended period of Small Craft Advisory conditions will begin Friday evening with Gales intermittently affecting the waters and spreading across most of the outer waters by Sunday. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding, starting initially along the lower Cape Fear River and then spreading along the NE SC and SE NC coasts later this week.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected to continue along the lower Cape Fear River during each high tide cycle. Minor coastal flooding is also likely beginning along the SE NC and NE SC coasts during the late Friday or early Saturday high tide cycle and then continuing at least during the morning high tide cycles thereafter.

High Surf: Elevated seas reaching up toward 10 ft within 20 nm of shore could lead to 6+ ft breaking waves on the beaches along with some beach erosion, especially the E-facing beaches in New Hanover/Georgetown Counties.

Marine: See the Marine section below for details regarding potential marine hazards.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Expect VFR conditions as high pressure prevails with gusty northerly winds calming down into this evening, but picking up in strength through Friday as the gradient tightens between high pressure building down the east coast and developing low pressure near the Bahamas.

Extended Outlook...VFR with NE winds gusting to 25 knots at times this weekend.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...High pressure will build down the east coast as Subtropical Storm Josephine continues to move northeast away from the U.S. through late week. Low pressure is likely to develop near The Bahamas starting this weekend leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient and increasing northeast winds and building seas. A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for an extended period through at least this weekend with intermittent gale gusts. By Sunday, Gales may become more persistent, especially in the outer waters.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Friday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ250-252-254-256.