textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

Beach Hazards Statement and Small Craft Advisory was cancelled as winds and seas were slowly diminishing and dropped below criteria.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A deep layer of northerly winds will maintain a dry Canadian airmass through the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A deep layer of northerly winds will maintain a dry Canadian airmass through the remainder of the week.

Persistent northerly flow continues over the Carolinas between a ridge over the southern Plains and deep low pressure almost 300 miles east of the Virginia coast. This low is expected to continue drifting north through Thursday before being shunted away to the northeast for the weekend. With high pressure in control of the weather locally, dry weather, clear skies, and generally below normal temperatures are forecast through the end of the week.

Continued the trend of greater diurnal ranges and adding a bit to daytime highs and subtracting a bit from lows, plus lowering daytime dewpoints to account for the dry air mixing down.

As the low moves farther off into the north Atlantic, Canadian high pressure will expand south down the eastern seaboard through late week. As the high moves south this weekend, the winds will veer enough to capture a bit more moisture off the water. This should alter the humidity a bit and create slightly higher overnight lows, but sufficient ridging aloft will maintain dry weather. May see a shower pop up offshore.

Northeasterly winds will also pick up again into this weekend as low pressure develops near the Bahamas and tightens the gradient between the high building down the east coast.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR continues with clear skies and northerly winds. Added some gusts this afternoon, but winds will diminish and should remain lower through the TAF period.

Extended Outlook...VFR will continue through the period. Breezy northeasterly winds could gust to 25 knots at times Friday through early Monday.

MARINE

Through Monday...Deep low pressure centered almost 300 miles east of VA will drift northward through Thursday. Locally, winds and seas were subsiding as this low was moving farther away and gradient was beginning to relax over our waters.

North-northeasterly winds will remain gusty this afternoon but will diminish to generally remain 15 knots or less through Thursday, along with a longer period NE backswell, leading to slowly improving marine weather conditions.

Canadian high pressure will begin to nose south along the East Coast Friday as low pressure develops over the Bahamas, leading to a tighter pressure gradient and increasing winds and seas for the weekend. Small Craft Advisory conditions should develop across the coastal waters Friday, and there is at least some potential for gusts to Gale force across the offshore forecast zones (20-60 miles offshore) beginning Friday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM to 9 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.