textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

High rip current risk continues tomorrow for Brunswick county beaches and northern Horry county. 0z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unsettled weather pattern continues, with scattered to numerous showers and storms likely through at least midweek.

KEY MESSAGE 1

Unsettled weather pattern continues, with scattered to numerous showers and storms likely through at least midweek.

Showers and storms will continue into tonight with heavy rain possible. A similar pattern looks to continue into midweek. Isolated flooding could be possible should slow-moving, heavy rainfall move over the same areas for several hours. Things will start to shift into the latter half of the week and the weekend as less mid-level energy traverses the area and high pressure attempts to build in.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Mostly VFR into early overnight hours as this evening's showers continue to weaken, though spotty light rain will continue for a bit. MVFR stratus is forecasted to develop overnight after 6z, predominantly for inland terminals where cigs could lower to IFR. There is a chance for IFR-MVFR visibilities along and west of I-95 during pre- dawn hours, with best chance at KFLO. An upper level impulse moving across overnight will fire off scattered thunderstorms that are forecasted to impact coastal terminals, starting 6z for MYR/CRE and 9z for ILM through morning.

Widespread MVFR stratus will linger for most of the day Wednesday due to very moist atmosphere, improving at SC terminals late afternoon. However, another day of scattered thunderstorms across the area during the day could create variable ceilings and could see cigs, and vsbys, fluctuating quite a bit. Winds remain light out of the south-southeast.

Extended Forecast...Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in showers and thunderstorms through at least Wednesday. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. Widespread VFR might return late week.

MARINE

6 ft waves may linger near 20 nm out but otherwise conditions within 20 nm will fall below Small Craft Advisory thresholds. Shower/storm activity will remain possible overnight with reduced visibility in heavy rain. Sub-SCA conditions thereafter for the remainder of the week with S/SE flow as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east, but periodic heavy rainfall may linger through midweek.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...None.