textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update. Rain chances are lower now for next week, following this weekend's expected rainfall. Aviation discussion updated for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above-normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity, and zero rain chances through early Saturday afternoon will lead to intensifying drought and fire weather concerns.

2) No significant impact on drought conditions expected despite the best rain chances/amounts in quite some time this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above-normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity, and zero rain chances through early Saturday afternoon will lead to intensifying drought and fire weather concerns.

Another warm day with deep mixing in store for today with high temps in the upper 80s, triggering a sea breeze to keep the immediate coast breezy later this afternoon and in the upper 70s - low 80s. Mixing heights around 10 kft will bring down dewpoints in the 40s (ahead of the sea breeze), with potential for upper 30s near I-95 corridor. Combined with above normal temps, min RH this afternoon will be in the 20-25% range for most of the CWA. While ongoing drought and dry air will contribute to fire weather concerns, winds today will be strongest in the sea breeze where humidity will be higher. Some hi-res guidance tries to produce isolated showers along the sea breeze this afternoon, but dry air aloft will limit cloud depth and dry below the high cloud bases will hinder any precipitation from making it to the ground.

Warm and dry weather continue through midday Saturday, with highs again in the upper 80s and min RH in the low 30s. Southwest winds will be increasing a bit during the day as cold front approaches later in the day. Sea breeze showers may be possible Saturday afternoon, but persistent dry air and drought conditions mean confidence is low.

KEY MESSAGE 2... No significant impact on drought conditions expected despite the best rain chances/amounts in quite some time this weekend.

A mid-level shortwave trough and associated sfc frontal system are still progged to move through the area late Saturday into Sunday, leading to 70-80% PoPs over the entire area with the highest chances being Saturday night. With the fairly progressive nature of this system and meager deep-layer moisture, not expecting a heavy rainfall or much drought relief. QPF is up to around half an inch, with guidance showing some locals could see higher amounts. Sfc high pressure builds in early next week, with low rain chances sticking around much of the week with transient shortwave energy aloft, but again no heavy rain anticipated through mid week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR with diurnal clouds around 10kft during the day. Winds generally out of the south-southwest, with gusty sea breeze out of the south for coastal terminals this afternoon.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through midday Saturday. Showers associated with a cold front could bring MVFR conditions late Saturday through Sunday. Overnight stratus/fog possible Sunday night and Monday night.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Southwest winds 15-20 kts prevail across the local waters through this evening, with gusts around 25 kts late afternoon into evening hours. Winds lower to 10-15 kts tonight out to 20 nm, while remaining around 15-20 kts from 20-60nm. Seas generally in the 3-4 ft range through tonight for most of the waters, with 2-3 ft forecasted for the 0-20nm coastal waters off of NE SC. Seas continue to be a combination of SW wind wave and a E swell.

Saturday through Tuesday... S/SW winds 15-18 kt expected Saturday ahead of a cold front which drops through the waters late Saturday night. Winds then shift to the NNE for Sunday and Monday, with a low to moderate chance of SCA conditions Sunday night into Monday over coastal waters with the NE surge behind the front and some guidance hinting at sfc low pressure development offshore. Gusts over the 20-60 NM waters up to 25-30 kt. Winds will weaken and come around to the S for Tuesday ahead of another cold front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.