textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Low temps over the weekend have decreased some, bringing a potential widespread freeze into the picture away from the coast on Saturday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday.

2) A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Warm afternoon temperatures will continue with low rain chances ahead of next cold front on Thursday.

After a chilly start, expect high temps today in the mid-upper 70s amidst dry deep-layer westerly flow. Low temperatures will rebound through midweek as moisture gradually returns from the southwest ahead of next system. The digging mid to upper trough will aid in an increase in some clouds through midweek and will support some gusty winds and a chance of light showers on Thursday as it pushes a cold front through.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A big cool down expected Friday into the weekend with frost/freeze conditions possible.

After a significant mid-upper trough pushes a cold front through on Thursday, breezy west to northwest winds will usher in considerably cooler and drier air for the weekend. Confidence is increasing for multiple nights featuring widespread 30s for overnight lows and the potential for a widespread freeze is also increasing on Saturday night.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in prevailing VFR conditions through the period. Light and variable winds this morning to become prevailing southwesterly at inland terminals and southerly at the coastal terminals with increasing high cirrus.

Extended outlook... VFR through at least Wednesday night. MVFR cigs may develop Thursday morning ahead of a strong cold front but confidence remains low. VFR to follow later Thursday into the weekend.

MARINE

Mostly benign marine conditions will continue into late Wednesday with southwest to west winds mostly 10 kts or less. Winds should increase starting Wednesday night ahead of a cold front with elevated/gusty west to northwest winds behind the front on Thursday. Small Craft Advisory conditions are now possible Thursday afternoon into Thursday night as well as on Friday. Steady west to northwest winds continue through Saturday, although speeds and seas may be just shy of criteria.

Seas in the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters will continue through Wednesday before increasing Wednesday night. Seas peak on Thursday with wave heights in the 2-5 ft range in the coastal waters and 5-7 ft range in the 20-60 nmi waters before subsiding somewhat on Friday. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum through Wednesday with a period between 9 and 11 seconds before wind waves become the primary contributor Wednesday night through Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.