textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The primary focus will be with the heat/humidity this week, and included a second key message for the increased chances for rain this weekend associated with a cold front. Aviation discussion has been updated as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring heat indices over 100 degrees this week.

2) A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Well above normal temperatures and humidity will bring heat indices over 100 degrees this week.

H5 ridge centered across the MS valley Tuesday morning will build across the Appalachians during Wednesday before drifting back to the west this weekend. The height rises will bring another round of heat to the area that may prompt Heat Advisories for parts of the forecast area through Friday. Normal high temperatures this time of year are about 86-88F, and forecast highs are mid/upper 90s inland to around 90/lower 90s coastal areas. A sharpening upper trough over the Northeast U.S. will finally bring relief to the area as a cold front is able to move through.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A cold front will result in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms this weekend.

While a cold front moves across the area this weekend (exact timing is still uncertain) and provided relief from the heat/humidity we experience this week it will also bring the chances of showers and thunderstorms. It is much too early to determine if strong storms are possible, but definitely worth keeping an eye on given the potential for some support in the NWly flow aloft as the front moves through.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Late summertime taf forecast is at its best tonight with VFR conditions for the most part with MVFR BR late as the nights continue to get longer. A few localized showers that occurred earlier along the coast may adversely affect visibilities although the better conditions (light winds) seemingly still reside inland.

Extended Forecast...There is low to moderate potential for MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and fog Wednesday morning. As drier air moves in aloft, the coverage of showers and storms is expected to be isolated, if any, Tuesday through Thursday. Some restrictions are possible by Saturday given increased chances for SHRA/TSRA with an approaching cold front.

MARINE

Through Saturday...The old front is expected to dissipate offshore resulting in light/variable winds tonight into Tuesday morning. Weak high pressure becoming established far offshore will allow SW-Sly winds to return Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday with speeds generally around 10 kt or less. An inland trough, plus the offshore high, will allow winds to increase a notch by Wednesday evening. The ridge is projected to drift southward leading to some light Wly winds. The pressure gradient will begin to tighten during Thursday with speeds around 15 kt, and an increase in seas Friday into Saturday as the next cold front approaches. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are most likely to be found across the offshore waters through Tuesday morning, then increased chances across all waters Friday into Saturday.

CLIMATE

As of August 30th - Wilmington, NC is currently just below its hottest summer on record. The average temperature (the simple average of each day's high and low temps) is currently 0.1F below 2011 and 2010 as of the official daily climate report from August 30. The final tally will be determined tomorrow.

#1 2011 81.8 deg F #2 2010 81.8 deg F #3 2026 81.7 deg F #4 2016 81.4 deg F #5 2022 81.1 deg F

Continuous temperature records began in Wilmington in 1874.

Additionally, August is the second wettest on record for Wilmington. There has been 15.01 inches recorded at ILM through August 31th.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.