textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation 18Z TAF discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temps mid to late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temps mid to late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

Deep high pressure, including anomolously high mid-level heights, will prevail which should allow surface temps to be well above normal Wed thru Sat, possibly reaching record highs on Fri (see Climate section below for details). There is still some uncertainty regarding the extent of the warming though given some cloud/rain/fog coverage and how much cooling influence there will be from the Atlantic but lower 80s are certainly possible away from the coastal areas on Fri. Record highs only appear possible at our more inland climate sites (KILM/KLBT/KFLO), but most likely well inland at KFLO/KLBT.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Gusty northerly winds up to 25 kt continue to usher in drier air. MVFR cigs lingering along the coast as strato-cu around 2500 ft continues to break up. Overall expect SKC with few to sct around 3-5kt ft through this afternoon and VFR conditions through remainder of TAF period. Winds will become calm and very light and variable into Tues as high pressure migrates overhead. There is a chance of patchy fog early Tuesday morning near daybreak for a few hours.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through mid- week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Marine conditions will slowly improve as high pressure builds in and migrates over the waters through midweek. SCA conditions will subside over all waters by this evening. Gusty northerly winds will diminish into tonight and will become more light and variable as the high shifts closer overhead. Winds will diminish to 10 kt or less as they become more variable and slowly veer around from northerly to southerly through Tues as the high shifts farther east.

Tuesday night through Friday night...No big changes to the previous forecast. Surface high pressure will be moving offshore with an eventual increase in pressure gradient as a cold front approaches late week, with wind gusts near SCA levels (25 kt). Significant wave heights should mainly stay below SCA levels (6 ft) but marginal SCAs are certainly possible, mainly Wed and again on Fri. Another marine concern will be sea fog as warmer and moister air moves into the area overtop the cool nearshore waters, however winds may ultimately be too strong for much fog.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20: Wilmington - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.