textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Raised POPs based upon radar trends. Gut feeling is that the near term severe threat over inland NC will shift into the Pee Dee where instability is highest. Any storm that reaches the coast of either state should be weakened considerably. Aviation section updated as well.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few evening thunderstorms are possible today and Wednesday. Mostly dry through the remainder of this week with potential for extreme heat through Friday.

2) Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... A few evening thunderstorms are possible today and Wednesday. Mostly dry through the remainder of this week with potential for extreme heat through Friday.

Degrading convection to the northwest will reach the I-95 corridor this evening. A few lingering storms are possible with elevated instability pooling across the region in advance of weak forcing. The timing of this convection favors lower severe weather chances, but any surviving strong storms may produce an isolated damaging wind gust.

Hot and humid weather continues across our area with a mid- level ridge extending across the Southeast from the Atlantic through the remainder of this week. Forecasted afternoon temperatures each day this week are in the upper 90s, with potential for a few sites reaching 100F at least one day this week. Combined with seasonably high dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, heat indices each afternoon will easily eclipse triple digits. Mixing down of drier air each afternoon may alleviate some of the humidity, but overall looking at multiple days of heat products needed. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for coastal counties through sunset. Another heat advisory has been issued for the same footprint on Wednesday. NWS HeatRisk highlights potential for extreme impacts from heat for our area through Friday, with lows in the mid to upper 70s providing little to no relief.

Rain chances are relatively low through early Friday due to the ridge's influence. Several upper impulses may lead to widely scattered showers moving into our area early this evening and again late Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Thunderstorm chances should increase again late Friday and Saturday with the approach of a cold front from the north.

The next best chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms will be late Friday and during the day Saturday. The upper air pattern should amplify late this week as a longwave trough takes shape just off the East Coast and the former Bermuda ridge retrogrades to the Mississippi Valley. Northwest flow aloft may push a cold front southward into the Carolinas Saturday, accompanied by cooler temperatures for the weekend and an uptick in the coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Storms to affect LBT shortly and FLO within the next hour. Tough call on coastal terminals as instability is waning there...perhaps a short-lived shower or two that won't really warrant being in TAFs at this time. Otherwise VFR unless this overperforming rain moistens FLO and LBT sufficiently for fog development.

Extended Forecast... VFR should prevail through the rest of the week. Shallow ground fog is possible inland each early morning. The approach of a cold front from the north may lead to increasing coverage of showers and thunderstorms again late Friday into Saturday.

MARINE

Through Saturday...West-southwest winds will prevail across the local coastal waters through Friday due to Bermuda high pressure offshore. Wind speeds generally 10-15 kts, with gusts near 20 kts each afternoon/evening. Seas around 2-3 ft through Friday, with 4 footers in the 20-60nm zones Friday afternoon, primarily due to SSW wind wave with a weak ESE swell mixed in. A cold front will approach from the north late Friday, moving across the area sometime Friday night or Saturday, turning winds northeasterly for Saturday. The front will also be accompanied by an increase in thunderstorm chances.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for NCZ096-099- 105>110. Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM to 11 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for SCZ054>056- 058-059. MARINE...None.