textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation 18Z TAF discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temps thru late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temps thru late week, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday

Anomolously strong mid-level high pressure, along with mainly SW surface winds, should prevail through late week keeping temps well above normal. Record highs are possible Fri afternoon (see Climate section below for details), especially inland away from the cooling influence of the Atlantic. Although low-level thicknesses suggest highs warmer than currently forecast, including lower 80s Fri, there remains some uncertainty due to clouds/fog/rain/sea breeze.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

High confidence exists for VFR to continue through the TAF period as light south winds prevail with increasingly thick high clouds arriving overnight. Although some MVFR mist cannot be ruled out near the coast before thicker clouds arrive, confidence is too low to mention. Otherwise, the main impact to aviation will be gusty winds starting by mid-late morning tomorrow.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through mid- week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... Light south to southeast winds will settle on SSW by late tonight as high pressure shifts increasingly offshore. Speeds will increase above 10 kts during Wednesday morning and peak around 15-18 kts during the afternoon into the evening. Seas settling to 1-3 ft through tonight will rebound to 3-5 ft by late afternoon on Wednesday. A few different wave groups will contribute to the wave spectrum, with a lingering easterly 1-2 ft wind wave at 5-6 sec decaying tonight, a SE 1-2 ft swell at 7-8 sec decaying Wednesday morning, an ENE 1-3 ft swell at 11-12 sec continuing through Wednesday, and a southerly wind wave growing up to 3-4 ft at 5-6 sec developing with the increase in winds on Wednesday.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...No big changes to the previous forecast. Southerly winds will prevail into late week with high pressure centered to the E-SE. A storm system this weekend will lead to varying wind directions. There is a low end risk for marginal SCA conditions Fri ahead of an approaching cold front. Sea fog is also a risk much of this period as a warmer and moister air mass moves into the area while the nearshore water temps remain quite cool, although winds may ultimately be too strong for much fog.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.