textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

As of 1214AM... Confidence continues to increase in rainfall Sunday into Monday, although confidence in rainfall amounts is not increasing.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Extended period of beneficial rainfall arrives Sunday and continues into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Extended period of beneficial rainfall arrives Sunday and continues into Monday.

Although confidence in the presence of a southern stream system bringing rain to the local area Sun into Mon continues to increase, confidence in rainfall totals is somewhat lower. There is a roughly 24 hour period where precipitable water exceeds 200% of normal across the forecast area, so moisture is not the problem. The track of the stacked low, south of the area with a secondary low developing off the NC/VA Coast is one that tends to lead to forecasts that over promise rainfall. Convection along the FL Gulf Coast and southern GA frequently disrupt convection locally, leading to lesser rainfall amounts. There will be strong divergence aloft and steepening mid- level lapse rates later Sun into Sun night as the 5h low moves closer. Low level forcing is limited with only a weak warm front in the region and cloud cover along with the marine layer will curtail diurnal instability. Still think widespread rain will occur and likely for an extended period of time, just worried that what looked like a slam dunk 1.00" 24/48 hours ago now may struggle to exceed 0.50" for much of the area. Still, embedded convection will have the potential to enhance rainfall totals in some areas.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

High confidence for VFR exists through the period as dry high pressure maintains control. Expect a steady breeze generally out of the NNE during much of today, then backing to NNW late today before going calm this evening. Calm winds are anticipated through Friday night, which could result in some shallow mist/fog formation in favored locations such as over and near swamps and rivers, but confidence in any restrictions due to mist is low due to the abundance of dry air just above the ground.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions continue through Saturday with high pressure prevailing. Flight restrictions are possible later Saturday night into Monday as a low pressure system affects the area.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Light winds will increase early this morning as a surge of cool, dry air arrives over the waters. Northerly winds of 10-15 kts can be expected through this morning before subsiding this afternoon to 10 kts or less. Seas around 1-2 ft early rise slightly to 1-3 ft in tandem with the winds, with the highest seas in the outer half of the coastal waters around and east of Cape Fear. As winds subside this afternoon, seas will fall back to 1-2 ft. Wind waves will be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum.

Saturday through Tuesday... High pressure overhead Sat morning shifts offshore during the day as low pressure moves east across the Deep South. This low will tighten up the surface gradient Sun into Mon, leading to a period of enhanced southerly flow. Not sold on speeds reaching headline criteria, although a solid 20kt seems a good bet. However, extended southerly fetch is likely to build seas over 6 ft later Sun into Mon. Expect a 12-24 hour duration of small craft advisory conditions, but decreasing north to northeast flow Mon night into Tue as high pressure builds in from the west drops seas under 6 ft. Conditions improve Tue with speeds under 10 kt and seas falling to 2- 4 ft by midday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.