textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Chilly high pressure over the area today will shift offshore tonight into Sunday bringing slightly milder temperatures before a cold front moves through Sunday night. Unsettled weather is then expected Monday night through Tuesday night as low pressure moves through the area. Dry high pressure will return Wednesday through Thursday with another disturbance bringing some low rain chances toward Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

One more day of unseasonably cold weather as wedge briefly develops with surface high pressure moving across the north during the day. Again, high temps today will struggle to reach 50F, though northeast winds will be quite light due to influence of the high pressure. Dewpoints will again be in the teens today, with scattered cirrus across the area through the afternoon. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, allowing return flow to develop. This will help PWATs increase from 0.25" during the day to 0.8" tonight. Will see stratocumulus clouds move onshore tonight in the low-level ESE flow, and could see a few spotty, very light, showers develop due to shallow isentropic light. Lows tonight around freezing, though could see a couple of degrees colder where there are clearer skies and couple degrees warmer where there are more clouds overnight..

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None *Rain Chances: Low thru Mon; Moderate Mon night *Temps: Near to above normal thru Sun night; Below normal Mon; Near normal Mon night *Confidence: High thru Mon; Moderate to High Mon night

Details: Inland high pressure and a trough along the coast will be shifting offshore Sun ahead of a cold front which should move through Sun night followed by another cooler shot of air as high pressure returns from the north. Limited moisture/forcing will keep rain chances/amounts low thru Mon with the best chances likely Sun night. However, rain chances will increase more substantially Mon night as another coastal trough begins developing and moisture/forcing increase ahead of another storm system approaching from the west. Could even see a few thunderstorms toward daybreak Tue, mainly offshore, as the coastal warm front tries to push inland. Rainfall amounts of a few tenths of an inch are likely by daybreak Tue, with several tenths of an inch possible, especially across inland portions of SC.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

KEY MESSAGES/HIGHLIGHTS: *Hazards: None, although there is a non-zero risk for a severe storm Tue *Rain Chances: High into Tue night; Very low to None Wed thru Thu night; Low Thu night/Fri *Temps: Near (coast) to below (inland) normal Tue; below normal Tue night thru Fri *Confidence: Moderate thru Tue night; Moderate to High Wed thru Thu; Moderate Thu night/Fri

Details: Strengthening low pressure inland Tue will be moving NE thru the day although the exact track is a bit uncertain. This will largely determine how much warmer and slightly more unstable air can move inland which will determine if there is any chance at all of a severe storm. At this point chances still appear very low despite the strong deep layer shear due to the fact that warmer air well offshore will likely be cooled somewhat over the chillier shelf waters closer to the coast. Once the low moves by to the north the trailing cold front will move through later Tue/Tue night bringing colder/drier air back to the area which will remain due to high pressure through at least Thu. May see light rain again as early as late Thu night as moisture begins to stream eastward ahead of another storm system with slightly better chances on Fri, although still some decent uncertainty this period.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR. Scattered cirrus through this afternoon. Stratocu cloud deck around 4-5 kft will move onshore tonight as low level flow turns east-southeasterly. Light winds out of the N-NE prevail throughout TAF period.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR until early next week. Flight restrictions possible the first part of the upcoming week as a coastal trough/warm front lifts north across the area, followed by a cold frontal passage. Widespread showers and isolated tstms are expected with this system.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure wedge inland will maintain northeasterly winds over the local coastal waters during the day today, sustained 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Seas 2-3 ft, combination of wind chop and 1 ft ESE swell. High pressure shifts off the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, veering the local winds to easterlies tonight while slightly weakening. Seas slightly lower to 2 ft tonight. Could see a few light showers move across the waters tonight.

Saturday Night through Wednesday...Northeasterly winds drop below 10 kts and gradually veer to the south throughout the day Sunday ahead of a cold front, with seas holding steady at 1-2 ft. Front moves through Sunday night before stalling offshore of the coastal waters by Monday. Winds veer back to the northeast by Monday, and the pressure gradient quickly increases, with gusts up to 20 kts by the afternoon, and seas up to 2-4 ft. Strong low pressure system ejects out of the Gulf and moves through Georgia and the Carolinas Tuesday, veering the winds again to the SSW. Winds and seas easily push into Small Craft Advisory criteria. Depending on the track of the low, the forecast may trend towards gale force gusts, but that remains to be seen. Low exits the area Tuesday night, and winds veer to the NNE and fall to 10-15 kts throughout the day Wednesday. Seas come back down to 2-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.