textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Special Weather Statement in effect until 6 AM EDT for Bladen and Pender Counties for areas of dense fog. No Dense Fog Advisory at the moment, but this will require more monitoring over the next few hours.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated below for the 06Z TAFs. Overall, no major changes coming down the track for the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Drier Tuesday with only isolated thunderstorms possible in the southern Grand Strand region.

- 2) Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday, and especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old frontal boundary surges through the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Rain chances increase late tonight and Wednesday, and especially Thursday through Saturday, as an old frontal boundary surges through the area.

The weak frontal boundary will slowly start to wobble back inland late tonight and Wednesday. This low-level lift will work with some shortwave energy to provide more chances for scattered showers and thunderstorms that start at the coast, and gradually push inland.

By Thursday, the best forcing comes into play, aided by a deepening trough in the Southeast that surges Gulf moisture into the Carolinas from SW flow. Rain chances become much more organized across the area Thursday through Saturday. Convective processes might allow for some areas to score a couple of inches of rain, which will continue to hammer away at the drought. Ridging from the west starts pushing in Sunday and Monday, cutting off the rain chances.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Should be mostly VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Despite presence of some drier air, fog has started to seep in across the rural areas north of KILM. The terminal itself is bouncing back and forth between MVFR and VFR visibilities. This is expected to continue into daybreak. Other terminals shouldn't have much in the way of fog issues.

Drier air will continue to seep into the area today, which inhibits convection. VFR conditions should dominate during the daytime hours with a light breeze out of the ENE inland, with a SE seabreeze at the coast. All winds calm after sunset tonight.

Extended Forecast...Mainly VFR with early morning fog and stratus possible each morning. The next system is due to come in sometime Thursday, creating wet and stormy weather through Saturday. Plenty of flight restrictions to come.

MARINE

Through Saturday...A weak front over the waters creates a variable wind that blows at a gentle to moderate breeze. Seas continue to improve from 2-3 ft down to 1-2 ft by midday Wednesday. From there, the front pushes back inland again, and SE onshore flow picks up Wednesday afternoon, veering to the SW Wednesday night through Saturday. Gradient winds pick up Thursday and Friday, but never get higher than a moderate breeze. This allows seas to pick up to 3-4 ft, but improve back towards 2 ft by Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.