textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes from the previous forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above-normal temperatures return today, with even hotter weather likely next week. No measurable rain is forecast over the next seven days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above-normal temperatures return today, with even hotter weather likely next week. No measurable rain is forecast over the next seven days.

Surface high pressure and ridging aloft will result in an increasingly warm and humid weather pattern into next week. After temps in the 80s today, expect a slight cool down with highs in the 70s near the coast and Cape Fear region Sunday as a backdoor cold front nudges into the area. Thereafter, a warming trend ensues with sfc high pressure offshore and upr-level ridging over the local area... temps inland may not be too far from record highs for the latter half of the week.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR will dominate this 24 hr fcst period. Only possible issue will be tempo group needed for possible MVFR fog. At this point, have only indicated this occurrence at CRE given BR a correlation to a W to NW AOB 4 kt wind this morning in set ups like this. Will observe thin cirrus at all terminals. In addition, could see aftn/evening FEW/SCT cu/sc/ac at 6000 to 7500 ft via latest GFSBufr soundings while a backdoor cold front approaches from thew north at the end of this period. W to NW flow around 5 kt will dominate this morning. Active Sea breeze pushing inland this aftn/evening will switch the winds to the SE-S at 5 to 10 kt in its wake.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR. Back door cold front will reach the FA late tonight then dissipate as it lifts back northward by Mon. Could observe periodic MVFR ceilings during the predawn Sun hrs into daytime morning in the vicinity of this front. Winds back to the ENE-E 10 kt Sun as high pressure from the north temporarily ridges in.

MARINE

Through Tonight... High pressure nearly overhead today will result in W to NW winds 5 to 10 kt this morning becoming S 10 kt this aftn and evening as the mesoscale sea breeze develops and dominates the wind field as it progresses inland. Backdoor cold front dropping southward today, reaches/stalls near the NC- SC border later tonight or early Sun morning. Looking at winds becoming ENE-ESE 10 to 15 kt, likely closer to around 15 kt vicinity Surf City by the end of this period. Seas generally 3 to 4 ft Cape Fear north and 2 to 3 ft south of Cape Fear to South Santee River. The slowly decaying ENE-E swell at 9 to 10 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum this period, with sea breeze wind chop thrown on top this aftn/evening.

Sunday through Wednesday... Sub-SCA conditions continue into this period. East wind 10-15 kt is expected Sunday with a backdoor cold front dropping into the area, then becoming out of the south starting Monday with sfc high pressure offshore.

Seas in the 2-4 ft range this weekend will subside slightly to 2-3 ft from Monday onward. The primary contributor to the wave spectrum will remain east to southeasterly swells with a period around 9-10 sec, while southerly wind waves become more noticeable starting on Monday in the 1-2 ft range.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.