textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather is expected through the weekend as high pressure prevails. A dry cold frontal passage expected late Sun, will bring the last of the cold air lasting thru Mon. For the remainder of the upcoming week, looking at a warming trend as dry high pressure prevails and the main storm track and frontal boundaries remain north of Southeast NC and Northeast SC.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/

Low amplitude/nearly zonal flow aloft will continue through Sunday. At the surface, broad high pressure across the Mid Atlantic region today will push off the coast, and a dry cold front will move through Sunday morning. A weak pressure gradient tonight, combined with mostly clear skies, will allow for good radiational cooling. Temps will fall into a 35-40 range, highest near the immediate coast. Despite cool advection once the front moves through Sunday, abundant sunshine will push temps above normal, with most areas reaching into the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Sfc cold front well displaced from its parent sfc low moving across SE Canada, will drop se-ward, crossing the FA with little fanfare other than accompanying clouds during later Sun afternoon. The sfc pg prior to and after its passage remains somewhat docile. The sfc pg tightens by Sun evening and lasts thru midday Mon as the last decent shot of cold air for the upcoming week comes in the form of Canadian high pressure. Sun night lows will see widespread 30-35 degree readings by daybreak Mon, the hier end of this range at the immediate coast. Daytime Mon highs will only struggle to the the 50-55 degree range. Flow aloft begins to amplify Mon thru Mon night with ridging across the western Gulf that extends northward into Canada. Westerly flow aloft will veer to northwesterly by the end of this period. This will help drive the Canadian high to a VA-NC- SC axis Mon aftn, and moving well offshore late Mon night. Sfc based inversion digs in early Mon night and will be difficult to break eventhough weak WAA will ensue overhead. As mentioned with previous fcst, will apply rad cooling to the Mon night lows which takes mins at spots below model fcsts.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

With the sfc high well offshore Tue, expect SW-W flow to materialize as the sfc ridge axis extending from the offshore high drops well south of the FA. Will also see the sfc pg tighten ahead of a backdoor cold front dropping southward, and combined with a downslope trajectory, ie compressional heating, will see max Tue temps well into the 60s. The backdoor cold front pushes to and across the FA late Tue night with weak or nearly just neutral advection, Wed maxes shaping up to run the same as Tue. The upper level high to track to the central to eastern Gulf during the mid to late week period with its ridge axis extending north to the Great lakes midweek, and then shunted across the SE States by the end of the week. Nevertheless, looking at mild to warm temps for the Wed thru Fri time period, bordering on well above normal especially if daily highs in the 70s come to fruition. Should continue on the dry side with with the main storm track and frontal boundaries remaining north thru northeast of the FA.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR. Light and variable to calm winds overnight become northerly 5-7 kt a few hours after sunrise Sunday.

Extended Forecast...VFR.

MARINE

Through Sunday...The center of weak high pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast tonight. A weak surface trough should develop over the Gulf Stream, resulting in a continued light NE flow over the nearshore waters through this evening. Winds eventually back to the NW late tonight ahead of a dry cold front that will move off the coast late morning/early afternoon Sunday. Northerly winds will increase after fropa, particularly after 21Z once the gradient begins to tighten up. At this time, am expecting SCA conditions to hold off until Sunday evening.

Sunday Night through Wednesday Night...Minimum SCA thresholds from both N-NE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas to briefly be met Sun night thru much of daytime Mon. This in response tightened sfc pg as the center of Canadian high pressure drops to the Carolinas by late Mon. the gradient combined with CAA across the waters should be enough for the brief SCA. Power-wise, an E-ESE swell at 9-10 second periods to dominate Sun night thru Mon night, eventhough will have decent NE wind driven waves. Tue, will see increasing SW-W winds ahead of a backdoor cold front, however will not see speeds as high as what occurs over land as the WAA ahead of the cold front has difficulty mixing to the ocean sfc with SSTs in the low to mid 50s. Backdoor CFP late Tue night followed by weak to periodic modest WNW winds veering to N-NE winds WED then likely diminishing to AOB 10 kt as the center of the sfc high drops to the local waters Wed night. Fading easterly swell will be dominated by wind driven waves during the Tue thru Wed night time-line.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM Sunday to 6 PM EST Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256.