textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some tweaks have been made to sky and dewpoints based on current obs. Forecast low temperatures have adjusted 1 or 2 degrees lower in spots based on last night's MOS performance. All changes were minor.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Some late week/weekend rain will be too light to bring any tangible drought relief.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Some late week/weekend rain will be too light to bring any tangible drought relief.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Expansive mid level ridge pushes westward and or weaken through the early part of the forecast as a weak cold front pushes southward. Pops re-enter the forecast late Friday and with likely values developing later in the day Saturday. The boundary pushes back to the north and dissipates leaving a weak mid level pattern one in which pops become erratic and of lower confidence especially the higher values early next week. A stronger front moves across by the end of the forecast period which may offer better rain chances and confidence is a little higher with this feature.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR conditions should continue overnight and through at least early Friday afternoon. Fog is not expected despite light winds and mainly clear skies given a rapid decrease in dewpoints in the first few hundred feet above ground level. Isolated showers or thunderstorms may develop during the mid to late afternoon hours Friday as a cold front approaches from the north. Anticipated coverage is enough to introduce PROB30 in the TAFs at KLBT. This could be expanded southward to include KFLO or KILM contingent on model trends tonight.

Extended Outlook...There is a moderate chance of visibility or ceiling restrictions Saturday due to scattered thunderstorms, reducing to a low chance on Sunday. Early morning ground fog may be possible Saturday morning through Monday morning.

MARINE

Overall a very light pressure pattern has developed with winds over land in the lower single digits and below ten knots or so at 41013. Light speeds will persist but the directions will be quite changeable. For later tonight into the weekend a southeast to east direction will develop/persist. Sunday into early next week should see a very light easterly flow finally followed by a stronger NE flow by the end of the period as a better front moves across. Seas associated with the light wind fields shouldn't get above 2-3 feet.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.