textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

KEY MESSAGE 1...Two upcoming days offer rain chances coming up: Wednesday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Two upcoming days offer rain chances coming up: Wednesday and Saturday.

The area is in D2/Severe Drought so any rain chances will likely continue to be the key messages for some time to come. Rain chance number one comes Wednesday. A warm front lifts through early in the day, it's parent low slowly crosses PA. The low then drags a cold front across our area Wednesday night. Both boundaries will offer low level ascent for precip generation. In between while the Carolinas bask in the storm's warm sector a very dry sub-cloud layer forms beneath 8kft. This should favor a downtick in precip coverage or at least intensity between the two FROPAs, though a weak semblance of surface convergence may overcome.

The next chance for rain comes on Saturday. This will occur as the front assoc with the midweek system sits off the coast and a mid level trough incites low pressure along the boundary. This would be a more stratiform rain setup in contrast with the aforementioned showery setup and may be our better shot at some non-negligible QPF.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR with NE winds 5 kt or less during this morning. May observe periodic calm conditions especially inland terminals near sunrise which could give rise to tempo MVFR shallow ground fog. Coastal terminals may see partial onshore movement of FEW/SCT low clouds, ie. stratocu. Otherwise, looking at cirrus initially with mid level clouds likely, especially inland terminals, later this aftn/tonight as an embedded mid-level s/w trof approaches from the west late tonight. Variable but mostly NE AOB 6 kt dominate this morning, eventually become SW 5 to 9 kt this aftn and drop back to 4 kt or less tonight. The coastal terminals will see a sea breeze, with SE-SSE winds around 10 kt this aftn into early this evening.

Extended Forecast... Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Wed thru Thu and Sat, with a brief reprieve Fri. This will lead to periodic MVFR/IFR restrictions, particularly on Wednesday and Saturday. Otherwise, predominant VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Elongated center of high pressure to move overhead today, then slide slightly eastward offshore from the Carolinas tonight. At the same time, a weak sfc warm front will approach from the south late tonight. The sfc pg will become relaxed under the high with NE winds at the start becoming S-SW on the backside of the high"s center...AOB 10 kt. The exception will be this aftn into this evening, nearshore, where the mesoscale sea breeze will produce SSE-SSW 10 to possibly 15 kt winds. Toward daybreak Wed, the southern most waters, both coastal and offshore waters, will see SW winds increase to 10-15 kt in the wake of the WFP. Only isolated showers/tstorm possible in the vicinity of the warm front tonight. Overall, seas will peak at the start of this period followed by a slow subsiding phase. Easterly 9+ second period swell will dominate the seas spectrum, with local wind chop near shore this aftn/evening.

Wednesday through Saturday Night...A warm front lifting through early Wednesday will give way to a gusty warm sector of SW winds, though wind speeds and wave heights will both remain below any advisory threshold. Low pressure crosses PA Wednesday night dragging it's trailing cold front across the local area. Winds remain gusty and veer to the NW allowing for a short period chop atop the easterly swell. High pressure moves east across the area Friday keeping winds light but also bringing considerable veering of direction. Waves to remain capped at 2-4 ft but may faces may grow a little steep. Low pressure develops offshore along the front dragged through early in the period. Depending on this low's pressure reading as well as its proximity to shore a few advisory-worthy 6 ft seas tough to rule out.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.