textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Small Craft Advisory raised for marine zones. Coastal Flood Advisory for Lower Cape Fear tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)Thursday may bring advisory level heat index values and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

- 2) Small Craft Advisory winds over the water late tonight into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Thursday may bring advisory level heat index values and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hot weather returns on Thursday but there is enough uncertainty to preclude a Heat Advisory at this time. Convective debris clouds expected to be approaching from the west to dim sun and hamper insolation. Additionally the mid level ridge will be centered further east than our last heatwave. The remnants of Arthur will traverse the area Thursday night into Friday morning. As always tropical remnants can pose a threat for wind gusts or even brief, weak tornadoes but give the size and asymmetry of the system confidence is quite low regarding the threat level for either, though it seems quite low and may last into Friday morning. Lastly an Increased Fire Danger SPS was debated but winds appear marginal and the RH remains high enough (especially given the aforementioned clouds hampering the heat) that we've also held off on any fire-related headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small Craft Advisory winds over the water late tonight into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... See marine section below.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Generally VFR with a few MVFR cigs overnight at most. Areas near FLO saw a bit more rain than anticipated so MVFR vsby could materialize though no guidance seems supportive. Winds remain out of the SW and will increase in both sustained and gustiness as Thursday progresses.

Extended Forecast...Extended Forecast...expect mainly VFR through Thu. An approaching strong cold front along with potential low pressure accompanied with tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night thru early Sat due to more numerous showers/storms. VFR expected later Sat thru Sun.

MARINE

Winds remain out of the SW in the near term, getting bolstered late tonight into Friday by the approach of a cold front and possibly a very weak surface reflection of the remnants of Arthur. Within this period of increased winds there will be some hard-to-time fluctuations where part or all of the area could fall sub-advisory with winds so the start and end times of the headline may need some minor finessing. Late Friday night brings a cold FROPA and a wind shift to the N that will be quite brief before veering begins. Swell energy through most of the entire period remains offshore keeping dominant wave periods 6-7 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.