textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 7 PM EDT: Minor coastal flooding continues for the lower Cape Fear River including Downtown Wilmington. Surf products have been updated. Rough surf is expected across much of the area on Tuesday, see the SRF and Key Message 2 for additional details.

As of 3 PM EDT: The Small Craft Advisory has been extended through 7 AM Tuesday. Also, Coastal Flood Advisories were added along all coastal zones for this afternoon's high tide cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

2) Rough surf is expected across many area beaches on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier and cooler conditions over the next few days with heat and higher rain chances returning late week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Sfc high pressure ridging in from the north through mid week will allow for continued cooler temps than we've seen as of late, with PoPs no higher than around 20% and confined to far SE areas/offshore. Temps warm a bit into Thursday as the high pushes offshore with some guidance supporting 20-30% PoPs inland, but the next good rain chances (50-60% PoPs) don't arrive until Friday into the weekend as better shortwave energy aloft moves through the area. By Friday, heat indices are likely to return to around 100 degrees once again with upr-level ridging just off the SE coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rough surf is expected across many area beaches on Tuesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... ENE winds and elevated astronomical tides will continue to produce rough surf at area beaches on Tuesday. A High Risk of rip currents is in effect for the east- facing beaches of Pender, New Hanover, and Georgetown County. A Moderate Risk of rip currents is in effect for Horry County beaches. A strong longshore current was observed at all area beaches on Labor Day and is also expected on Tuesday. This strong longshore current kept rip currents closer to the shoreline and will likely do so again on Tuesday. However, strong longshore currents and strong nearshore rip currents will produce rough and dangerous surf.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Onshore flow will weaken around sunset; CRE/MYR may see weak NE gusts overnight with the marine layer. Patchy MVFR clouds are possible at times for coastal locations, but dry air over land should keep CIGs short-lived if they develop. VFR continues on Tuesday with gusty winds returning.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning in convection Friday into the weekend.

MARINE

A SCA remains in effect through tonight with moderate ENE flow as sfc high pressure positions off to the north. Decided to extend the advisory until 7 AM Tuesday as guidance typically undercuts seas in this regime and they actually already are running slightly higher than guidance. At that time and thereafter, the 6 ft seas should be confided to around and beyond 20 NM. Sub- SCA conditions then for the remainder of the week as the pressure gradient noticeably slackens.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ106-108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for NCZ110. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ056. Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Tuesday through Tuesday evening for SCZ054. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.