textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelled Coastal Flood Advisory for the lower Cape Fear River. Aviation section updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Unseasonably hot weather returns Thursday.

2) Minor tidal flooding should continue for another evening high tide cycle.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Unseasonably hot weather returns Thursday.

DESCRIPTION...A weak area of low pressure and a cold front will maintain unsettled weather through Wed at which time Atlantic high pressure builds more west into the area. This will lead to a short break in the heat/humidity today before more summerlike conditions begin to return again Wed. Thu should be the hottest overall with heat indices likely surpassing Heat Advisory criteria (105 degrees) for most of the area, especially over SE NC and coastal SC. By Friday, should see increasing rain chances from tropical moisture moving into the area from the southwest which would keep temps/heat indices down a bit. Thus, the risk for a Heat Advisory looks to be very low, especially inland. However, it is worth noting that there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast late week as much depends on the timing of a cold front and potential low pressure system moving up from the Gulf coast. As of now, cooler and drier air then returns for the latter half of the weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor tidal flooding should continue for another evening high tide cycle.

DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides will continue to push tide levels higher than normal leading to some minor coastal flooding for another evening high tide cycle, along the lower Cape Fear River and at the beaches.

AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Overall, expect VFR conditions across the area thru 06Z Wed. Have used short term MVFR prob30 groups across CRE/MYR/FLO later this morning and/or aftn. Otherwise, reserved prob30 groups across all terminals between 06Z and 12Z Wed due to MVFR/IFR ceilings from shower activity. There may be a thunder threat late tonight but potential and confidence remains low and as a result did not include in this 12z TAF issuance other than mentioning here. With a frontal boundary wavering across the Bi- state region today, winds will differ between the inland and coastal terminals. However, by this afternoon and thru tonight winds generally become SW 5 to 10 kt.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions Wed will become periodic as the day progresses. Mainly VFR Thu. An approaching stronger cold front along with tropical moisture will bring a moderate to high risk for flight restrictions starting late Thu night and continuing into early Sat.

MARINE

Tonight through Saturday...A cold front and weak area of low pressure will linger near the coast into early Wed before Atlantic high pressure regains a foothold. Lighter, more variable winds this morning will become SW this afternoon and will increase Tues night into early Wed up to 15 to 20 kts with some gusts to 25 kts. This will also produce a spike in seas up to 3 to 5 ft. A stronger cold front and potential low pressure system late week should bring at least Small Craft Advisory conditions and potential gales Thurs night through Fri, mainly in the offshore waters north of Cape Fear.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.