textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will slowly move offshore bringing a warming trend with temperatures quite a bit above normal much of the week. Seems to be decent agreement on a more amplified weather pattern later in the week, with a few upper disturbances likely bringing increasing moisture and rain chances. However, details regarding timing and amounts of rainfall are more uncertain. At this time ensemble guidance suggests total rainfall through the weekend is most likely to be ~0.5" or less for most locales.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR. N to NE winds through the day 10-15 kts by the afternoon. Some mid-level clouds may develop in the afternoon before clearing skies tonight.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR. The risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers increases on Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

High pressure centered north of the area will slowly shift offshore ahead of a weak storm system impacting the area mid week. Elevated seas will continue this afternoon and a few 6 foot seas will remain possible for our southern SC waters this morning. Conditions gradually improve through the remainder of the week, especially as flow turns onshore mid week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.