textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Arctic high pressure keeps cold conditions through Saturday. The high will move off the coast by Sunday as a cold front approaches. Rain chances increase into next week as a wave of low pressure moves up the Southeast coast, potentially bringing some good rain Tuesday. A dry period is expected behind this disturbance.

UPDATE

No changes made to previous forecast. 12z aviation discussion below.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Dry and unseasonably cool weather continues through the near term period due to strong CAA. Clear skies today with PWATs less than 0.2" (well below 10th percentile climatological mean). 850mb temps will be down to near -3 to -4C, also well below below 10th percentile for this time of year. Highs today will struggle to reach 50F, roughly 15 degrees below normal. As surface high pressure continues to build in from the west, LLJ on the northeast side of the ridge will bring some gusts around 20mph to SE NC this afternoon. Dewpoints well into the teens will drop RH values to 25%. High pressure moves overhead tonight, allowing for more ideal radiational cooling conditions even as thin cirrus moves overhead late tonight. Lows tonight in the mid 20s, with upper 20s near the coast.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Cold and dry conditions will hold through Saturday as high pressure stays in the area before it moves away late Saturday night, the pattern changing quite sharply. Sunday will see increased WAA as we sit in return flow from the high and flow ahead of a cold front. Highs will increase by +10-15 degrees from Saturday to Sunday. Shower chances will start to increase into the afternoon as the front approaches, but no real instability and better forcing to the north will lead to no chances of thunder at this time.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The main focus for this period will be low pressure approaching the area into Tuesday. A stalled offshore front from Monday will see some activity along it as a fairly strong shortwave moves through aloft during the day Tuesday. Storms will be possible closer to the coast where better instability is/closer to the passing low. On the current forecast late Monday night through Tuesday is the best timeframe for enhanced rainfall, but this could change depending on the track of the low. Behind the low and into midweek expect drying as high pressure builds in.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR. Clear skies, with some cirrus moving in tonight. Light NW winds through late morning with 5-10 kts NW winds during the day. A few gusts may reach 20 kts midday and this afternoon, particularly at SE NC terminals. Light northerly winds tonight as high pressure moves in from the west.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, with brief flight restrictions possible early next week.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure continues to build in from the west today, moving overhead tonight. NNW winds 15-20 kts this morning lowers to 10-15 kts this afternoon out of the northwest, with gusts up to 20 kts, becoming northerly tonight. Seas 2-3 ft today and tonight, combination of wind chop and a 1 ft ESE swell.

Saturday through Tuesday...High pressure will briefly improve conditions as NE winds drop to ~10 kts. The high will move away into Sunday with light SW winds and a coastal trough forming offshore. A cold frontal passage will increase NE winds into Monday to 15-20 kts with strong winds lingering through the period and Small Craft advisory conditions possible Tuesday as coastal low pressure approaches the area. Seas 2-3 ft will increase Monday ahead of the front to 3-4 ft and further into Tuesday with 6 footers possible.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.