textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Coastal Flood Advisory for this afternoon's high tide cycle has been cancelled, as levels are expected to stay below minor flood thresholds.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

2) Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... High pressure will bring near normal temperatures and dry/occasionally breezy conditions through early next week.

The local area will remain under the influence of sfc high pressure centered off to the NE through at least early next week leading to several days of quiet, dry weather with temps near normal. Northeast winds will be breezy at times, especially near the coast during the daytime periods.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Rain chances should increase later next week, but forecast confidence remains low.

As sfc high pressure pushes farther offshore during the middle of next week, the upr-level pattern will start to transition as a deeper trough approaches from the west. Although forecast spread in regards to both upr-level heights and precipitable water remains high in this more amplifying pattern, southerly return flow would support an increase in rain chances later in the week. Latest forecast calls for a 30-40% of rain Thursday and Friday, with a dry forecast before then, aside from offshore where chances for showers are higher.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR through the 18Z TAF period with no chance of rain and just some scattered to broken high clouds. NE winds averaging around 10 kt persist, gusting higher at times.

Extended Outlook...Predominantly VFR, although a bit better risk for restrictions due to low clouds/showers by Thursday.

MARINE

With sfc high pressure locked in place to the N/NE, moderate NE flow will continue over the waters. A SCA remains in effect for all coastal waters outside of the northern SC waters where conditions are more marginal. The headline now ends late Sunday night, when seas should dip below 6 ft with gusts decreasing to below 25 kt. Not much change into the first half of next week, with ~20 kt winds and 4-5 ft seas continuing through at least Tuesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-256.