textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Relaxed sfc pg and a weak sea breeze expected Friday which should keep winds limited and as a result a break in the strong longshore currents of the past 5 days. Sea breeze will still be a convergent force to aid pcpn development Fri.

Moderate rip current risk for Pender/New Hanover and Georgetown County Beaches expected Fri. Southeast swell at 8 second periods to dominate the seas spectrum the next few days.

Baroclinic zone to reside across the ILM CWA next few days resulting in a swath of pcpn across the FA. Flood Watch already in place may need to be expanded in its coverage across the FA as well as extending its timing.

Aviation discussion updated with 00Z Tafs Issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1)The next few days will offer up some drought releif but also the possibility of localized flooding.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The next few days will offer up some drought releif but also the possibility of localized flooding.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Cold front currently roughly bisecting NC from north to south. This boundary is progged to drop into the area tonight and stall along the coast. This mornings MHX RAOB sampled 2.12" of PW, a value that will only increase as we head into Friday. Mid level flow will become increasingly laden with weak vorticity maxima keeping shower activity sustained along the front especially late Friday. Areas along and south of the border should see the heaviest rain as this occurs as well as overall during the next 3 days. Currently this means that the heaviest rain will be focused along the coast, NC moreso than SC. No changes have been made to the Flood Watch at this time though a later expiration time seems likely. Less likely but still possible could be a southern expansion if enough rain-cooled air pushes the boundary a bit farther south than currently forecast. The drying trend will begin gradually on Sunday though the trough may offer another rain-making piece of energy on Monday according to latest guidance.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Sfc front to basically stall west to east across the FA during the next 24 hrs. North of the front will observe IFR stratus tonight into daylight Fri with potential for MVFR fog. South of the front will see mainly VFR with occasional MVFR clouds. And along and north of the boundary, a swath of west to east moving showers and thunderstorms. Will identify the pcpn coverage and timing with prevailing/tempo and prob30 groupings. Nevertheless, light to moderate showers will dominate with few thunderstorms possible mainly near the coast, ie Cape Fear northward. Where locations could observe reduced vsby to 1 to 3 miles in heavy rain. A few high res models indicate some of the more intense thunderstorms early Fri morning along the coast, with ILM and possibly CRE under the gun. The threat for showers and embedded thunderstorms will occur all day Fri with prevailing MVFR conditions likely at all terminals and the period IFR restrictions from thunderstorm activity. Winds during Fri go variable in direction at 5 to 10 kt, however will identify a "best" wind direction in lieu of going variable.

Extended Forecast...Potential for periodic MVFR/IFR due to tstorms expected Friday evening through late Sat, most numerous in the afternoon and evening. Conditions should start to dry out Monday with predominant VFR returning, and prevailing through Tuesday.

MARINE

Tonight through Tuesday... A cold front is approaching the waters from the NW. This boundary will stall just inland keeping the marine winds S to SW but very light as the stronger flow is moved out to sea. Swell energy is fairly minimal and so with light winds seas will settle to levels manageable to most mariners-though vsby restriction in moderate to heavy rain still a hazard. Confidence in the wind forecast is a bit lower on Sunday as the weakening front may or may not be pushed south of at least some of the forecast area. A southerly flow will become established by Monday but remain weak as west Atlantic high pressure is displaced east of its normal position.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. SC...None. MARINE...None.