textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes coming down the track with the overnight forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Brief Period of Below to Near Normal Temperatures is Expected Today and Thursday.

- 2) Significant Warming Trend Starts Friday and Goes Well Into Next Week.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Significant Warming Trend Starts Friday and Goes Into Early Next Week.

Very quick pattern change comes into play Friday, as ridging over both the Gulf and the western Atlantic builds northward and merges together. This will culminate towards a classic summer heat dome that amplifies over the Deep South throughout the weekend and at least into next week. Heat indices in the triple digits likely everyday Friday through Sunday. Heat Advisories look to be a given over the weekend (heat index of 105-109 degrees for 2+ hours).

Subsidence keeps the rain chances very limited Friday and Saturday, with the seabreeze providing the only hope for some relief. Rain chances get a bit better Sunday and Monday with a weak frontal system.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will continue through the next 24 hours. Stratocumulus or low altocumulus developing within the frontal inversion aloft should last at least a few hours after sunrise before thinning. Some afternoon cumulus will form atop the daytime mixed layer this afternoon but all cloud bases should remain VFR. Northeasterly surface winds could increase to around 10 knots after sunrise along the coast, veering southeasterly this afternoon with the seabreeze.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR through at least Sunday morning. Exceptions may include some patchy fog Thursday and Friday mornings. More organized shower/t-storm chances will become possible Sunday afternoon with the next frontal system.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Small Craft Advisory has expired for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. Conditions will continue to improve through tonight. Moderate to fresh breeze out of the NNE will gradually veer to the E by this afternoon, improving to a moderate breeze, then a gentle breeze tonight. Seas currently at 2-4 ft out 20 nm, up to 5 ft out 60 nm, which will also improve towards 2-3 ft by tonight.

Thursday through Sunday...Gentle breeze continues through Friday morning, gradually veering towards the SSW. Seas hold steady at 1-3 ft. From there, gradient winds increase up towards a moderate to fresh breeze late Friday through Saturday night, allowing seas to kick up to 3-4 ft out 20 nm, up to 5 ft out 60 nm. Weak front tries to push in Sunday, where winds will go westerly briefly before back to southerly, improving to a gentle to moderate breeze. Seas improve to 2-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.