textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures Today through Friday, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures Today through Friday, possibly reaching record levels inland Friday.

Strong mid-level subsidence, a result of ridging aloft, combined with enhanced, deep west to southwest flow will push temperatures well above normal the next few days. Away from the coastal influence highs in the low to mid 70s today, increase to mid 70s Thu with potential for 80 degrees on Fri. Low level thickness supports highs in the lower 80s away from the coast and the cooler marine influence, but there remains some uncertainty with respect to how warm Fri will end up. The subsidence inversion in forecast soundings is fairly strong into Fri morning before it weakens. However, guidance may be weakening this inversion too quickly (common bias), allowing for more cloud cover and rainfall. If so, it suggests Fri could end up very warm, partly cloudy and fairly dry. Something to keep an eye on. Lows will be similarly warm, with most areas seeing lows near normal daytime highs for mid Feb. Record highs are possible Fri afternoon (see Climate section below for details).

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail throughout TAF period. Plenty of high clouds around, with scattered to broken clouds at 4-5 kft this afternoon. South-southwest winds in place through tonight, with gusts around 25 kts possible during the day.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR during the day through late week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning. Increased chance of flight restrictions this weekend.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Southwest winds across the coastal waters tonight around offshore high pressure, peaking at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts late this afternoon and evening. Seas 3-4 ft, with a few 5 footers in the outer SE NC waters this evening, combination of long period E swell and S fresh swell. There is a chance of patchy sea fog over the waters late tonight, particularly south of Brunswick county.

Thursday through Sunday... High pressure offshore and warm temperatures inland will maintain southwest flow 15-20 kt through Fri. Diurnal increases in wind speeds are possible as inland temperatures warm well into the 70s and approach 80. A brief duration SCA is possible Fri, depending on how warm inland temps get. A weak front moves over the waters Sat leading to winds closer to 10 kt with direction being quite changeable. Developing low pressure just north of the area Sat night into Sun brings about offshore flow with speeds increasing following the passage of a cold front early Sun. Pinched gradient as high builds in and offshore low strengthens may lead to a period of offshore flow in excess of 25 kt Sun and Sun night. Prolonged period of enhanced southwest flow will build seas to 3-5 ft Fri before the decrease in speeds and the varying direction helps drop seas to 3-4 ft Sat. Despite flow being offshore Sun the enhanced speeds could lead to some 6 ft seas near 20 nm late in the day, resulting in seas ranging from 2 ft near shore to 6 ft near 20 nm.

CLIMATE

Record highs for 2/20/2026... Wilmington NC - KILM (81 last set in 1991) Lumberton NC - KLBT (80 last set in 2018) N. Myrtle Beach SC - KCRE (77 last set in 1949) Florence SC - KFLO (83 last set in 2014)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.