textproduct: NWS Wilmington

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation...00Z Taf Issuance Discussion updated.

1230 pm Changes... Confidence is increasing for a beneficial rainfall event late in the coming weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beneficial Rainfall expected Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Beneficial Rainfall expected Sunday into Monday.

The latest guidance has shown increasing run to run consistency with a significant system moving across late in the weekend into early next week. Most of the significant rain is centered around late Sunday morning into the evening when low level convergence is aligned with mid level diffluence with high precipitable water values. Ensemble numbers still show a wide range of qpf amounts but totals a few ticks above or below 0.75 inches still seems a good play.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR thru the period. Weak CAA surge overnight into Fri as a speed max aloft passes by. Will observe mainly cirrus at 20k ft with few/sct Altocu at 12k ft possible associated with the passing impulse. Calm winds this evening will give way to NNW- NNE winds around 5 kt during the predawn hrs as a weak sfc trof pushes thru, a reflection from the impulse aloft. Winds generally NNW-NNE 6 to 9 kt during daylight Fri.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions continue through Saturday with high pressure prevailing. Flight restrictions possible later Saturday night into Monday as a low pressure system affects the area.

MARINE

Through Friday... Light northerly winds continue for the remainder of this afternoon and this evening. A surface trough will move through the area tonight. Northerly winds will increase briefly as the gradient becomes compressed, gusts should not exceed 20 knots late tonight and Friday morning. High pressure will settle over the region on Friday with quiet marine conditions returning.

Friday Night through Tuesday... Conditions will transition from rather tranquil to somewhat blustery by the end of the weekend as a storm system moves across. A modest northerly component to the wind direction will give way to a southerly flow increasing to 15-20 perhaps 25 knots at times. Significant seas will eventually develop into small craft advisory criteria as well.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.

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