textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the routine 12Z TAF issuance.

3 AM Forecast Update: All sections have been updated with no significant changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening.

2) Hot and humid conditions will persist for much of the week, especially late week.

3) Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A few severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon/evening.

An inland trough, along with the sea breeze and a MCV will provide lift for scattered to numerous showers/storms this afternoon/evening. Deep layer shear looks marginal for much organized convection but sufficient to support at least a few damaging wind gusts with the SPC highlighting a 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms for all of SE NC & NE SC.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Hot and humid conditions will persist for much of the week, especially at the end of the week.

Heat indices will be near low-end Heat Advisory thresholds (~105 deg) today due to highs in the mid 90s coupled with moderate levels of relative humidity, mainly near the coast where dewpoints will be highest. However, given the lack of coverage/duration we opted to not raise an Advisory. Looks like parts of Horry/Brunswick/Columbus Counties will see the worst conditions. However, everyone is encouraged to take proper precautions.

It looks like there will be some reprieve from the heat Monday and Tuesday behind a cold front before the heat and humidity returns starting Wednesday, and especially late week. Heat Advisories are possible as early as Thursday but more likely Friday/Saturday when Extreme Heat Warnings are also not out of the question for the coastal counties.

Check out our heat page (weather.gov/ilm/heat) for more heat forecast/safety info.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Low risk for tropical/subtropical cyclone development off the southeast U.S. coast mid week.

An area of low pressure is expected to form off the southeast United States coast toward mid week, mainly south of SE NC & NE SC, and it could attain tropical characteristics as it drifts toward the west through mid-week. The NHC is highlighting a low chance for tropical/subtropical development with a similar risk for any significant direct impacts to SE NC & NE SC at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence that VFR conditions will continue for the next 6 hours. Coastal terminals could see a couple of round of storms with westerly winds producing convection along a pinned sea breeze, better chance for southeast NC coastal areas. Isolated storms are possible along the Piedmont trough inland this afternoon, but the best chance comes late this afternoon and this evening as a degrading line of storms pushes into the eastern Carolinas.

Boundary layer winds remain elevated tonight and winds turn northwesterly. This should keep fog chances low, but increased soil moisture and light winds could lead to areas of stratus before the end of the TAF period.

06Z Mon thru Thu...Mostly VFR. Low clouds possible late Sun night into Mon morning and again Mon/Tue nights, mainly in NC. Some aftn/eve showers/storms along the sea breeze Mon, mainly impacting ILM/CRE/MYR. Generally rain-free starting Tue with just low chances inland Sat.

MARINE

Sunday thru Thursday...Atlantic high pressure to give way to a passing weak cold front tonight. High pressure from the north will then combine with potential low pressure development offshore well south of the area to keep northerly winds into mid week before the low likely moves westward and onshore. The NHC gives this low a low chance of becoming a tropical/subtropical system while it remains over water.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...None.