textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will bring dry weather through much of the upcoming work week as a series of high pressure systems and mainly dry cold frontal passages trek across the Carolinas. Temps have the potential to warm to well above normal mid to late next week.

UPDATE

No significant changes to the public/marine forecasts. Latest trends suggest we'll be able to let the Small Craft Advisory on time at 9 PM. Otherwise, the aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

Basically a temperature and wind forecast during the near term period as radar and skies have cleared while high pressure builds into the area. Lows tonight are forecast to reach the low to mid 30s but there is potential for colder mins in sheltered locations or if the winds go completely calm overnight. Highs Sunday will reach the mid to upper 50s.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Sfc high pressure will retreat further offshore Sat night/Sun as a cold front approaches from the NW. Winds to decouple early on Sat evening which should lead to decent rad cooling conditions to bring lows to the low to mid 30s, weak onshore flow may keep temps AOA 40 along the immediate coast. SCT/BKN, mainly mid or high level clouds to accompany the CFP Sun aftn, with the CAA surge and tightening of the gradient delayed to Sun night into Mon. Temps to warm into the 60s during Sun, even as winds veer to the NW, with the resulting downslope trajectory helping to counter any CAA after FROPA. Canadian high pressure to follow and provide a decent CAA surge accompanied by NE winds forcing Sun night lows into the 30 to 35 degree range, with mid 30s along the immediate coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

The longwave upper pattern to change during the long term period, whether that becomes the mainstay or just temporary, with future prognostications to aid this endeavor. At this point in time, amplified ridging to occur across the central U.S. extending from the upper high over the Gulf with its ridge axis extending to the Great Lakes. This becomes more pronounced during the mid to late week period of next week. This will result in a warming trend, commencing Tue and possibly peaking during the late week period. The main low pressure/storm track will remain north thru northeast of the FA, but will have to keep an eye on any backdoor type cold fronts that may snake far enough south before stalling across or just north of the FA, resulting in clouds and cooler temps, especially the ILM NC CWA. But for now, will lean with the milder/warmer trend.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through 00Z Sunday. Winds will be mainly light and variable, generally shifting from westerly this evening to northerly overnight to east/southeasterly Saturday.

Extended Forecast...Predominantly VFR through the extended period.

MARINE

Through Saturday...W winds of 15 to 20 KT with higher gusts will become NE to N overnight and diminish to 10 to 15 KT. Winds will become NE to E Saturday and run 10 KT or less. Seas of 5 to 8 feet this afternoon will subside to 2 to 4 FT Saturday.

Saturday Night through Tuesday Night... Sfc high pressure to retreat further offshore Sat night with winds AOB 10 kt, variable in direction but will identify a "best" direction. This weak wind field continues thru midday Sun as the next cold front drives se-ward. Looking at NW winds by midday Sun veering to the N-NE late Sun thru Monday at SCA thresholds. This in response to a 1030+ Canadian high dropping to the eastern Carolinas. The gradient relaxes and the CAA cuts off late Mon thru Mon night with winds diminishing below SCA thresholds. The sfc high pushes offshore Tue with its ridge axis dropping south of the waters. Winds will further veer to the SE-S Mon night and SW-W Tue and slightly increase as the sfc pg slightly tightens, especially across the NC waters as a backdoor front drops southward toward the local waters. Benign seas Sat night thru much of Sun. Late Sun thru Mon, N-NE winds will build seas to AOA SCA thresholds especially if the trajectory is more northeasterly. A subsiding trend to the seas will occur late Mon night thru Tue as the driving force to these short period wind waves diminishes.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.