textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure will shift off the coast tonight into Friday with a onshore to southerly return flow developing. A significant warming trend could bring near-record highs on Friday and Saturday. A strong but moisture-limited cold front will push through early Sunday, with temperatures falling to below-normal values for Monday before moderating to around normal thereafter.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure extending in from the north will shift eastward off the Delmarva coast this evening. As it shifts farther offshore through tonight into Friday, the winds will veer around from E-NE to E-SE by morning and then will become southerly by afternoon. Temps tonight will drop to around 50 degrees and will rebound into the 70s on Fri with plenty of WAA. Cirrus should continue to stream over the area in W-SW flow in the mid to upper levels through tonight and then expect decent coverage of fog with moist onshore flow. As winds begin to shift around and dewpoints increase further, expect a decent chance of sea fog. Overall, areas of dense fog are possible again tonight and may end up with another Dense Fog Advisory. The fog should lift by mid morning leading to a very warm day with potential for record temps. See climate section below.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

Our area will be firmly in a WAA regime Friday night through Saturday, with plenty of high clouds through early Saturday. Low temps Friday night in the upper 50s will be closer to climatological highs. There may be stray light showers near the coast, due to return flow, and along and west of I-95, due to weak isentropic lift, overnight Friday into Saturday, but plenty of dry air in the mid levels over our area will keep moisture shallow and therefore precipitation limited. There may be low clouds in the morning, but there will be plenty of sunshine during the day Saturday after morning clouds dissipate and dry air advecting from the southwest aloft thins out the cirrus. This will allow highs Saturday afternoon to reach upper 70s/near 80F. NBM has 30-40% chance of reaching 80F inland Saturday, which would tie or break records. Dewpoints in the mid 60s will also be more reminiscent of spring and summer. Increasing low level winds ahead of approaching cold front along with plenty of mixing will produce gusts around 25-35mph Saturday. Best rain chances remain Saturday night into early Sunday ahead of a strong cold front. Models continue to show moisture associated with the front decreasing after crossing the Appalachians. QPF is around 0.25" west of I-95 and less than 0.1" near the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

The cold front itself moves across the area sometime Sunday morning, with rapidly dropping dewpoints and cooling temps behind it. Temps Sunday will depend on speed and timing of the front, and will likely see a gradient of warmer temps near the coast with cooler inland. Although upper level forcing arrives Sunday evening, delayed behind surface features, PWATs will have dropped down to 0.2" or less and so there will be virtually no moisture to work with.

CAA behind the front will drop temps into the upper 20s Sunday. Clear skies on Monday but cool air will lead to high temps struggling to reach 50F in the afternoon. High pressure overhead Monday night will produce another cold night in the 20s before temperatures rebound to near normal Tuesday and Wednesday. A coastal trough/low looks to develop Wednesday, although bulk of the moisture is forecasted to remain offshore. The next frontal system is progged to impact the area next Thursday into Friday.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR for now but expect another night of IFR to LIFR fog. Initially should see a mix of cirrus and lower clouds with MVFR fog developing after 02z. Could see several hours of IFR to LIFR vsby and ceilings between 08z and 13z. Expect fog and low clouds to dissipate by mid- morning, 14-16z. As high pressure shifts off the Delmarva coast tonight into Fri, light winds will veer to become onshore and then southerly on Friday. This could bring sea fog onshore affecting coastal terminals on Fri with possible IFR conditions.

Extended Forecast...Coastal fog possible into Saturday. Impacts are most likely to occur during the nighttime hours, however depending on wind directions even daytime fog cannot be ruled out at coastal terminals. Confidence in sea fog impacts is low.

MARINE

Through Friday...High pressure will shift off of the Delmarva coast north of the area allowing light winds to shift around from E-NE to E-SE by morning and then southerly into Fri aftn. The warm moist flow over the cooler waters should produce areas of fog. May see some spots become dense but confidence is low as to the exact extent of any sea fog. Winds should remain under 10 kts as the overall gradient flow remains fairly weak. Seas will be 2 ft or less.

Friday night through Monday...Southerly winds and seas will be increasing Friday night through Saturday night as a cold front approaches the area. 5-10 kts SSW winds and 1-2 ft seas Friday night increase to 15-20 kts and 4 ft seas by early Saturday night. May see spotty showers and patchy sea fog over the coastal waters during the day Saturday with high dewpoints and WAA. Best chance of rain will come late Saturday night, but thunder chances will be virtually non- existent for the nearshore waters.

Cold front moves offshore early-midday Sunday. Gusty offshore winds develop Sunday afternoon, with sustained speeds around 20-25 kts and gusts up to 30 kt creating marginal SCA conditions. 5-ft seas briefly enter our coastal waters Sunday evening. Winds turn northerly Monday as high pressure builds in from the west, with marine conditions quickly improving during the day.

CLIMATE

Max temperatures on Friday and Saturday may reach or exceed the daily records. See below for max temp records on each day... Site Jan 9 Jan 10 Wilmington, NC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 74F (2013) 79F (1957) Florence, SC: 78F (1974) 80F (1974) Lumberton, NC: 78F (1907) 78F (1957, 1930)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.