textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for the 18Z TAF issuance. Key messages updated for timing information but remain largely the same.

KEY MESSAGES

1) High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

2) Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...High pressure will bring lots of dry weather, breezy conditions at times, and seasonable temperatures through the middle of next week.

Persistent high pressure will dominate the weather through mid next week leading to dry conditions and near normal temperatures much of the period. Breezy conditions with gusts up to 35 mph at times are also expected, mainly nearer the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Minor coastal flooding and hazardous marine/surf conditions are expected through at least early next week.

An extended period of enhanced northeast winds due to strong high pressure to the north and low pressure developing near The Bahamas will lead to hazardous marine/surf conditions. Also, increasing astronomical tides and NE winds will lead to minor coastal flooding.

Coastal Flooding: Minor coastal flooding is expected during each high tide cycle for the next several days along the SE NC and NE SC coasts, including the lower Cape Fear River. The highest tides should occur during the morning high tide cycles.

High Surf: High seas up to near 10 ft within 20 nm will likely lead to 6+ ft surf heights into early next week, especially for E-facing beaches. We have raised a High Surf Advisory for New Hanover County where confidence is highest in 6 ft breakers occurring starting today. In addition, the large waves coupled with high water levels could result in some erosion, especially for east facing beaches.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions as high pressure prevails. NE winds will prevail, gusting to 20-25 kt, perhaps higher during the daytime.

Extended Outlook... VFR to prevail with NE winds gusting to around 25 knots at times Sunday. There is a small chance of low clouds affecting the coastal terminals due to low-level clouds off the coast. High pressure brings dry weather and clear skies early next week.

MARINE

Through Thursday...High pressure to the north will prevail through the period with low pressure developing far offshore tightening the pressure gradient. Solid Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected for the 0-20 nm waters with some marginal gale force gusts. Expect a better risk for gale- force gusts beyond 20 nm and the Gale Warning continues there. NE winds counter to the Gulf Stream will result in very steep/hazardous maritime conditions offshore. Although the NE winds will persist and diminish some through mid week, marine conditions are always slower to improve in such scenarios and thus boating conditions will not be favorable for much of the upcoming week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ106-108- 110. Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EDT Sunday for NCZ107. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054. Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ054-056. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ280-284.