textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Rain will end as a cold front moves through the Carolinas this morning, bringing breezy and drier weather today. Rain-free weather is expected this weekend through most of next week as a series of high pressure systems and dry cold fronts move across the Carolinas. A warming trend may create well-above normal temperatures by Christmas Eve.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/

Showers associated with a leading shortwave ahead of a cold front are trailing off to the north and east with less coverage south and west due to weak subsidence following the wave. Over the next few hours, additional isolated showers will be possible despite some upper level dry air advection. Low level moisture and warm air advection beneath this drier air aloft will keep rain rates low, where showers develop. Low clouds and patchy fog should be noted for anyone traveling prior to sunrise, especially near the coast.

The main cold front will approach the region this morning. A few isolated showers may reach the I-95 corridor, but largely expect this front to pass with little to no shower activity. Water vapor satellite imagery is already showing the southern flank of the cold front being engulfed by dry air and showers retreating northward along the line.

As the cold front pushes through, a strong low level will be maintained. Clear skies and warm air ahead of the front will allow mixing to reach this jet. Expect gusts up to 30-40 mph, increasing after sunrise and peaking late this morning. Winds will gradually weaken this afternoon following the front.

Warm air advection this morning and peeks of sunshine before noon should push temperatures into the mid 60s for much of the area; upper 60s likely near the coast. Highs will occur this morning and as the front works its way through the region this afternoon, temperatures will gradually cool. Cold advection bring us to near freezing tonight under clear skies.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/

Surface high pressure centered over eastern NC and Virginia Saturday morning will push off the coast during the afternoon. This should allow a light south wind to develop during the day, but inland dewpoints should still mix down into the mid to upper 20s with minimum relative humidity falling toward 30 percent.

Sub-1000 mb low pressure moving eastward across southern Quebec on Sunday will push a cold front southeastward and through the eastern Carolinas during the day. Surface-to-700 mb flow remains west to northwest during the frontal passage so this should remain a moisture-starved system with virtually no cloud cover at any level. Canadian high pressure will move from the Ohio Valley Sunday to the central Appalachians Sunday night, pushing another dry and chilly airmass across the Carolinas.

NBM temperatures look reasonable through the period.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

An upper air pattern change is anticipated next week as an expansive 500 mb ridge develops across TX and the western Gulf Coast, extending northward along the Mississippi Valley Tuesday and Wednesday. The active polar jet will lift north across the northern U.S. and southern Canada for most of next week.

1036 mb surface high pressure centered across NC and Virginia Monday will scoot off the coast by Tuesday. Low pressure moving eastward across southern Ontario and Quebec Tuesday and northern New England on Wednesday will give a cold front a southward kick, likely pushing into the eastern Carolinas Wednesday. At this time it appears there will be little if any airmass change as this front reaches the area. Even models that push the boundary through continue to show highs well into the 60s Wednesday. Dry weather appears likely to continue through the period.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

IFR and LIFR evident across much of the region this morning. Some inconsistency is evident inland where southerly winds have allowed CIGs to increase slightly. Generally expect IFR to dominate through a could of hours after sunrise. Some sea fog is possible near the coast as long as winds are southeasterly.

IFR expected until 12-14Z as mixing deepens and dry air advection aloft erode some of the existing cloud layer. VFR/SKC and windy today as a we mix into a low level jet. Gusts up to 40 knots will be possible late this morning and around noon. As the front pushes through during the early afternoon, gusts will decrease to around 20- 30 knots. Remaining VFR tonight.

MARINE

Through Tonight... Warm advective flow continues ahead of a cold front. Patchy sea fog and showers will continue to lower visibility this morning. The front will finally push offshore early this afternoon. Winds increase ahead of the front with gusts becoming more efficient in cold advection behind the front. Gusts up to 30 knots this morning will increase briefly to around 35 knots just behind the front. Gradual improvement is expected this evening. With the latest forecast, the Small Craft Advisory should end on schedule (around 02Z).

Saturday through Monday...High pressure centered over eastern NC and Virginia Saturday morning should weaken as it pushes out to sea Saturday night. This will allow northeasterly winds to diminish with time. Westerly winds Sunday morning should turn northwesterly during the day as a dry cold front moves off the coast. There won't be much increase in wind speeds until Sunday night when Canadian high pressure begins to build firmly into the Carolinas. Northerly winds should increase to 20 to perhaps 25 knots Sunday night into the first half of Monday with a growing potential we'll need another Small Craft Advisory posted during the period.

CLIMATE

Thursday's daily average temperature at our four main climate sites (ILM, CRE, FLO, and LBT) ran 5 to 7 degrees above normal, the first time this entire month where temperatures were above normal. Month-to-date temperature departures are 7 to 8 degrees below normal across the entire area.

Monthly average temperatures also ran below normal in August, September, and October this year.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM EST Friday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.