textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The next swath of rain is currently moving eastward through parts of the CSRA and Lowcountry, and will start to push into the Grand Strand over the next few hours, the Pee Dee region by around midnight or so, and southeast NC after midnight. Updated the hourly rain chances to better match up with the current trends.

Elsewhere, aviation discussion updated below for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight with a cold front lingering in the area.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected tonight with a front lingering in the area.

A cold front currently sits along the coast with SW flow running over the stable air at the surface. The front will continue moving southeast tonight as an upper trough over the U.S. East Coast shifts eastward. In response, we expect to see some redevelopment of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms overnight, mainly over the southeast half of the area.

Drier air at the surface and aloft will begin working into the area Monday and should bring about an end to most of the rainfall by afternoon. Cooler air will filter into the area Monday night and Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Mostly IFR to open the 00Z TAF period, which should persist through 12Z Monday or so. Ceilings may improve to MVFR at times tonight during this lull with no rain over the next few hours. Rain to the west will slowly start to spill over into the local forecast area overnight tonight. -RA and -SHRA possible from 04-08Z at KFLO and KLBT, 06-10Z at KCRE and KMYR, and 07-11Z at KILM. Extra moisture in the boundary layer may bring in BR at times, lowering the visibilities down to 4-5SM. Wouldn't be surprised if the ceilings lowered to LIFR at times tonight, particularly closer to KCRE and KMYR.

Rain should push offshore during and after daybreak Monday, and besides some drizzle during the day, that should be it for the bona fide rain. Dry air starts infiltrating the atmosphere from above, allowing for gradual improvement to VFR from west to east throughout the day. Think the inland terminals should open up to VFR ceilings by 18Z, coastal terminals should get there by 20-22Z. Winds at 5-6 kts gradually veer from the NW to the NE.

Extended Outlook...VFR dominates Monday night through Friday. Only exception could be some patchy fog in the mornings.

MARINE

Light southerly to southwest flow continues with a slow-moving cold front along the coast. The front will move offshore tonight with northerly, then northeast, flow developing behind the front. The surge of stronger winds holds off until a reinforcing trough reaches the waters on Monday night or early Tuesday. Still expect to see headline conditions develop once the surge arrives. Anticipate conditions to persist into Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.