textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Record highs likely inland today ahead of a strong cold frontal passage tonight.

2) Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

3) Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight into Sunday.

4) Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Record highs likely inland today ahead of a strong cold frontal passage tonight.

After an unseasonably warm start to the day with temps closer to the normal highs for this time of year, plenty of sun, low-level warm advection and a generally pinned sea breeze near the coast will help temperatures climb to near record high levels this afternoon ahead of an approaching strong cold front which will move through tonight. Our N. Myrtle Beach (KCRE) climate site will likely have the hardest time reaching a record high. Otherwise, low to moderate rain chances are expected with the frontal passage tonight, generally greatest in NC. Unfortunately, limited moisture/instability will preclude significant rainfall with only a few tenths of an inch at best expected, especially well inland closer to the NC Sandhills and northern SC Pee Dee. Thus, no help easing the ongoing drought conditions. Wind gusts today will be up to around 25 mph and up to around 35 mph tonight after the front passes.

March 27 Record Highs: Florence, SC: 89 in 2021 Lumberton, NC: 87 in 1950 & 1949 Wilmington, NC: 87 in 2020 North Myrtle Beach, SC: 80 in 1944

KEY MESSAGE 2: Increased fire danger likely on Saturday.

Dry/breezy conditions behind the cold front Saturday will likely bring enhanced fire danger to our area, especially given the expectation of little rainfall with the cold frontal passage Friday night. For now, conditions for NE SC are more conducive due to slightly warmer temperatures leading to lower humidity values. There is still some uncertainty as to how dry the coastal areas will get but for now 30-35 mph gusts (mainly Saturday morning) and humidity values 15-25% could cause fires to catch and spread quickly.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous marine conditions expected tonight into Sunday.

See the Marine section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 4: Frost possible Saturday night away from the coast.

Surface high pressure will build in from the north Saturday night leading to fairly light winds and with minimal sky cover, classic conditions for radiational cooling. Have continued the trend towards cooler model guidance, especially inland where mid 30s are most likely. Have dropped our traditionally colder spots by 5-10 degrees into the lower 30s/near 30. For now freezing conditions still seem delegated to these spots, but there is a low chances that inland areas could drop near freezing as well. This will need continued monitoring as lows hover around 33-34F at this time. In terms of frost, there is some uncertainty due to dry air in place inhibiting significant/widespread frost. Highest confidence continues to be for patchy frost over Pender Co and in those traditionally colder spots (Green Swamp, eastern Bladen Co bordering Sampson Co, etc).

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Moderate to high confidence in mostly VFR conditions through the 12Z TAF period. A strong cold front will approach from the west today and then move through tonight leading to breezy conditions. There is also a low to moderate risk of MVFR cigs and very low risk for IFR cigs starting after 00Z, mainly at KLBT/KILM. Any showers tonight should be light and not cause significant vsby restrictions.

Extended Forecast...MVFR cigs possible through around 12Z Sat before drier air moves in behind a cold front leading to VFR conditions which should then generally prevail through the rest of the period. However, there will be low chances for minor restrictions starting Sun as low-level moisture begins to increase again as high pressure shifts back offshore.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Moderate to high confidence. A strong cold front will approach today before moving through tonight. Southerly winds will increase today but will be limited somewhat by the cool SSTs, but then increase quickly and significantly tonight after the frontal passage. Could see a few hour period of Small Craft Advisory conditions before the risk of gale force gusts starts just prior to daybreak. Also, could see some sea fog develop today into early evening but not expecting significant coverage/visibility reductions due to marginal conditions.

Saturday through Tuesday... Confidence on Gales has not really increased so the Gale Watch remains in effect. The timing for gusts to 34 kt would fall mainly with the cold frontal passage and after as CAA pours over the waters, strongest winds Saturday morning. SCA conditions may linger into Sunday before marine conditions greatly improve for early to mid next week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Watch from late tonight through Saturday afternoon for AMZ250-252-254-256.