textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes other than to correct the high NBM dew point bias. Aviation discussion updated for 18Z TAF issuance. Beach Hazards Statement issued for a strong south to north longshore current through early this evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures and increased humidity will continue through much of this week. The potential for showers and thunderstorms may provide some temporary relief for some areas each day.

Building ridge across the southwestern Atlantic will sneak into the Carolinas on Wednesday. Warmer temperatures are expected to return and weak subsidence following a shortwave will keep afternoon convection isolated to widely scattered. Warm temperatures on Wednesday are still only slightly above normal and increased humidity could push heat indices up to 105 for a brief period. The main concern would be areas of coastal SC prior to the developing sea breeze.

Ridging builds on Thursday and Friday. Westerly downslope flow will add to the warm temperatures. Highs should easily reach the upper 90s for a large portion of the area. This, combined with high humidity, will likely lead to additional heat advisories later this week. The center of the ridge will be suppressed to our south. Meanwhile, weak shortwave impulses will move through the Mid-Atlantic both Thursday and Friday. This should spark some isolated convection despite the drier air aloft.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the coastal terminals for the next couple of hours as the activity shifts inland later this afternoon. Brief restrictions are expected as these storms shift inland. A few strong gusts are possible with storms. Ongoing outflows could keep activity going through the early evening. A stronger low level jet should keep fog chances limited tonight, some low stratus is possible. Coastal terminals will see some stratus to start the day on Tuesday as the sea breeze deepens through late morning.

Extended Forecast... Generally VFR. Low potential for flight restrictions from fog or low ceilings each morning. Threat for mainly afternoon and evening showers/thunderstorms through late this week.

MARINE

Southwesterly winds increase today as the Bermuda high builds westward across the Atlantic. Breezy SW winds are expected with gusts up to 20 knots possible through this evening. Choppy seas increase to around 2-3 feet overnight. The surface pattern remains stable on Tuesday and Wednesday and the extended fetch leads to an increase in swell and wind waves. A compressed gradient will keep breezy conditions through late this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105>110. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-054>056-058-059. Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.