textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures will warm up for the remainder of the work week. Rain chances will increase on Thursday ahead of a cold front. High pressure will build in for the weekend with near to above normal temperatures.

UPDATE

TAF discussion updated for 12Z routine issuance.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

After a frigid start this morning, temperatures should rebound quite well as high pressure slides offshore. Light southerly flow (less than 5 mph) will push temperatures into the upper 40s and lower 50s across the region this afternoon. Very dry with minimum RH in the upper teens or lower 20s. Sunny skies expected throughout the day.

Boundary layer winds increase slightly this evening which should interrupt a nearly perfect radiational cooling setup. There could be a large discrepancy in areal lows with mid 20s possible in our sheltered low spots and temperatures around 30 elsewhere. Coastal areas should hold in the mid 30s with a weaker inversion.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Deep SW flow around high pressure offshore will produce continued warming on Wednesday. High temps should reach around 60. By Wed night into Thurs, it looks like a weak cold front may drop far enough south while shortwave over the Gulf will ride around deepening upper trough and should see potential for clouds and pcp Wed night into Thurs. Then as mid to upper trough moves eastward later on Thurs, should see potential for additional shwrs in increasing moisture and lift in deep southerly flow. Pcp water levels could reach above 1.5 inches, especially close to the coast with temps into the mod 60s and dewpoint temps near 60. Could see a rumble of thunder ahead of front.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

The front should move offshore Fri with much drier and cooler air moving into the Coastal Carolinas Fri aftn into Fri night. Temps up near 70 early Fri will drop down into the 30s Fri night in CAA and clearing skies. Temps on Sat will be cooler as high migrates across the area moving offshore Sat night into Sun. Highs will only reach into the 50s but as high shifts off the coast, it should lead to increasing warmth once again with temps back in the 60s by Sun. Should see a good deal of sunshine over the weekend. The next cold front should move through Sun, but looks like moisture will be limited as flow aloft remains more zonal. Stronger high pressure will build down from the Great Lakes on Mon with a cool down to more seasonable temps once again.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR/SKC and light winds.

Extended Forecast... Restrictions possible on Thursday morning and again on Thursday evening ahead of the next cold front.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure in the nearly overhead will maintain light winds today. As the progressive pressure pattern shifts eastward, southwest winds will increase gradually tonight, but the weak gradient should keep winds around 5-10 knots. Seas 1-2 feet.

Wednesday through Saturday...Light return flow on Wed will become more variable late Wed into Thurs as weak front drops down, but this boundary will lift back north on Thurs with increasing southerly winds through Thurs. This will build seas from less than 3 ft on Wed up to 3 to 4 ft Thurs and possible up to 5 to 8 ft Thu night in southerly winds up to 25 kts. Expect SCA conditions by late Thurs into Fri. Winds will veer around behind cold front through Fri with high pressure building in for the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.