textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Freeze Watch upgraded to a Freeze Warning.

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Elevated fire danger continues into early this evening.

2) Areas in the Freeze Watch upgraded to a Freeze Warning, also with the inclusion of Darlington County SC.

3) Hazardous marine conditions thru Sunday.

4) Unsettled weather is possible during the latter half of next week, but confidence is low regarding the details.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Elevated fire danger continues into early this evening.

The lower sfc dewpoints have been slow to spread across the FA, especially the ILM NC CWA, given a pocket of moisture that was slow to traverse the FA. By mid-afternoon, RH across most areas will range in the 25 to 30 percent. The gusty N-NNE winds have prevailed but will diminish in gustiness by sunset with NNE-NE winds around 10 kt or less prevailing by mid-evening. The meteorological conditions will combine with basically no rain from the earlier CFP that has resulted with continued dry fuel conditions stemming from the ongoing drought. This will allow the continuation of the increased fire danger, ie. Fire Danger Statement for the ILM NC CWA...and the Red Flag Warning for the ILM SC CWA. Expiration times for both statements are 8pm this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Areas in the Freeze Watch upgraded to a Freeze Warning, also with the inclusion of Darlington County SC.

Center of sfc high with sfc dewpoints in the low to mid 20s to eventually temporarily park across Central and Eastern NC, just north of the ILM CWA during the pre-dawn Sun hrs. Will not be directly overhead tonight but close enough where N-NNE winds slightly veer to the NE AOB 5 kt across the Freeze warned area, especially between 4am and 7am Sun. Winds at this mentioned time range could also potentially decouple for those few hrs. Have stayed with the colder guidance which has min temps dropping into the lower 30s. With the possibility of decoupling, have also introduced patchy/areas of frost within the warned area, given the better prospects of a decreasing sfc dewpoint depression.`

KEY MESSAGE 3: Hazardous marine conditions thru Sunday.

See the Marine section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Unsettled weather is possible during the latter half of next week, but confidence is low regarding the details.

A complicated upper pattern evolution is expected next week. First, an upper trough and associated surface low crossing the northern US during the early to middle part of the week leaves a stalled front extending from the Lower Mississippi Valley into the Mid-Atlantic. With robust surface high pressure stationed near Bermuda, expect gradually warming temps and rising dew points through midweek. Next, a powerful trough is expected to enter the Pacific Northwest Wednesday night while a southern stream shortwave trough and ridge pair cross the country ahead of it. The details pertaining to how the Pacific Northwest trough evolves, and subsequently how the downstream pattern responds, results in low confidence for how unsettled the weather will become as the placement of the stalled front will be affected by these upper features. Furthermore, a strong high pressure center translating across southern Canada on the north side of the stalled front will also influence how far south the front settles.

Run-to-run consistency amongst operational model guidance continues to be low and cluster analysis tools generally support a drier scenario being the most likely outcome with the wetter scenario being the next most likely. Thus, while it appears the stalled front and its higher precip amounts should stay northwest of the area, daily chances for pop-up showers and thunderstorms may ensue from Wednesday onward as the warm and humid Bermuda high pressure pattern supports a more summer-like result. Nevertheless, keep a close eye on the mid-late week forecast as confidence increases with respect to the front's position and whether a wetter outcome becomes more or less likely.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR to dominate through the 18Z 24 hr TAF issuance period. Leftover post frontal daytime Cu to dissipate by sunset. Otherwise, SKC to prevail thru the period. The exception will be at the end of this period when moisture from off the Atlantic returns in the form of stratocu/altocu. Gusty N-NNE winds to drop off quickly by sunset to NE 5 to 10 kt, and further drop to AOB 5 kt especially across LBT/FLO. For CRE/MYR and to a lesser degree ILM, winds stay active in the 5 to 9 kt range all night. Center of sfc high moves off NC Coast Sun with winds becoming easterly around 10 kt by the end of this period.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail, although there will be low chances for minor restrictions starting Mon, mainly due to early morning fog/stratus. By Thu may be dealing with potentially onshore sea fog movement.

MARINE

Through Sunday...The initial surge of CAA combined with a tightened sfc pg had resulted in 35 to 39 kt Gale gusts across the area waters earlier. Will see continued g35 kt thru the aftn but by early this evening or possibly earlier, the CAA will lessen which should diminish 35+ kt gusts to around 30 kt. Expect strong SCA conditions, both winds and seas, thru the night and slowly diminishing Sun (mainly the winds) as the center of high over NC tracks off the NC Coast and return easterly flow sets up by Sun aftn at much reduced speeds as the sfc pg relaxes some. Seas generally in the 4 to 7 ft with some 8 footers well off Cape Fear and South Santee River where longer fetch lies with a N-NE wind. Primarily NE 6 sec period waves or less to dominate except late tonight or Sun may increase to 7 to 8 second periods from NE-ENE.

Sunday night through Thursday... A return to an extended period of sub-SCA conditions. With Bermuda high pressure locked in place well offshore and low pressure systems staying off to the north and west, winds will average out of the south at only 5-15 kt, with some daily enhancement nearshore from the sea breeze. Seas steady at 2-4 ft, mainly consisting of 7-8 second SE waves.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for NCZ087-096-105. SC...Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Sunday for SCZ017-023-024. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023- 024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Gale Warning until 6 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250-252-254- 256.