textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Surf hazards have been updated. Minor coastal flooding continues along the lower Cape Fear River and Downtown Wilmington this evening. Advisories for the beaches have ended. The aviation section has been updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain chances returning during the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Drier weather initially, then warmer with rain chances returning during the week.

Ridging aloft, currently from the Central Plains into the MS Valley, will build across the Southeast U.S. during Wednesday. This pattern will keep the column mostly dry along with surface high pressure that will be far off the NC coast at this time. The H5 ridge will shift off the coast during Thursday with weak return flow allowing the higher PWAT environment to the south to spread northward again. During Thursday will maintain the highest PoPs across the SC zones (40-60%) with some across the NC zones (20-40%). The high PWATs will continue across the forecast area through the weekend with a front potentially stalling/weakening across the area this weekend.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR conditions continue tonight. A few clouds are possible at coastal terminals tonight, but easterly winds will gradually decrease through Wednesday.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR conditions continue with dry high pressure in place, with restrictions possibly returning in convection at times Thursday through the weekend.

MARINE

Tonight through Sunday: High pressure off the VA/NC coast will focus the stronger ENE fetch just south of the South Santee marine zone with the weaker winds generally north of Cape Fear. The surface ridge axis will extend nearly E-W into NC tonight into Wednesday morning allowing for lighter Ely winds. The high will shift farther offshore during Wednesday into Thursday allowing for additional veering with the gradient light enough for winds around 10 kts. An inland trough will become established by Friday and with high pressure much farther offshore S-SWly winds will return. More uncertainty exists this weekend with a front possibly stalling/weakening across the waters. Seas will be greatest through the remainder of today and tonight especially across the southern ILM waters, then 3 ft or less through much of the upcoming period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.