textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change has occurred in forecast thinking this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The upcoming week will be increasingly hot and remain mostly rain-free.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The upcoming week will be increasingly hot and remain mostly rain-free.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The cold front dropping in on Monday still looks to have enough of a lack of support aloft to produce anything more than about 40 POPs and rainfall will be too spotty from an areal coverage perspective to bring us any drought relief. Another widely scattered shower/storm day on tap for Tuesday as a weakness between two mid level ridge passes overhead containing a few vorticity maxes. For the later half of the week the two ridge centers congeal nearby and a Piedmont trough develops. Afternoons will warm to the mid/upper 90s away from the water. Heat index values will generally remain below advisory thresholds save for perhaps a small part of the area on Thursday/Friday.

AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High confidence in VFR through the period with clear skies and no fog. SW winds through tonight will become light and variable Monday as a cold front drops into the area. This boundary could bring isolated showers and storms towards or just after the TAF period.

Extended Forecast...VFR to generally prevail thru Thu. Low to moderate risk for restrictions from MVFR/IFR cigs Mon night into early Tue behind a weak cold front and again Tue/Wed nights (mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO). Restrictions from some showers/storms are also possible each day, mainly inland at KLBT/KFLO during the aftn/eve.

MARINE

Tonight through Friday... The area remains in a SWrly prefrontal flow regime. Tomorrow as the boundary approaches flow will start to veer and the wind speeds will trend downward. This trend reverses weakly Monday night in a NE surge that will remain well below advisory thresholds. Our easterly swell energy will abate through Tuesday but possibly persist in a weakened state for a good portion of the period. Bermuda high becomes established for the remainder of the forecast for SW flow in the 10-15 kt range with 2-3 ft seas, both of which are fairly typical for June.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.