textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have added patchy sea fog to the local waters from Cape Fear southward to South Santee River thru midnight, prior to the CFP. Issued a 323pm MWS to highlight mariners to any local dense sea fog, however its mainly been a low stratus issue.

00z TAF discussion updated.

1257pm Update... Daytime temperatures have been lowered for both Monday and Tuesday due to strong CAD wedge in place.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local coastal waters tonight through Tuesday morning.

2) Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to the week.

3) Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Small Craft Advisory now in effect for local coastal waters tonight through Tuesday morning.

See Marine section for additional information.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Cold air damming wedge creates chilly start to the week.

Cold air damming in place Monday with cloudy skies will lead to well below normal temps for the start of meteorological spring, with highs Monday in the low to mid 50s, closer to NBM10th percentile and MET guidance. Wedge looks to maintain its hold for most of the day Tuesday, and have undercut blended guidance on daytime temps with wedge and low clouds lingering. Highs Tuesday are currently forecasted in the low 60s inland with mid 60s near the coast, but even these might be a bit too warm still (particularly inland). Could see a few light showers Tuesday and coastal trough attempts to move inland with weakening of the wedge, but pops and QPF remain low.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Significant warmup begins Wednesday and continues into next weekend.

With CAD wedge dissipating Tuesday night and Bermuda high establishing itself, temps Wednesday will be much warmer than the start of the week with highs in the upper 70s. Highs around 80F forecasted for Thursday through next weekend, with temps along the immediate coast 10F or so lower thanks to sea breeze. Lows each night will be only slightly cooler than typical high temps for early March. Subsidence from mid level ridge will limit pops Thursday, with only slight chance in the afternoon for southern counties. Ridge influence weakens late week into the weekend, and will see chance pops each afternoon as a bit of surface instability combines with diurnal heating and sea breeze to produce a few thunderstorms.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR conditions to dominate the evening hours. The Ci/high AC should keep fog development to a minimum eventhough winds go calm prior to the CFP late this evening but more like during the pre-dawn Mon hrs from a north to south motion. CAA and a tightened gradient after the CFP as high pressure wedges across the area from the NE. Abundant moisture in the low levels will lead to low stratus, mainly IFR, prior to daybreak across all terminals. There may be fluctuations above/below 1k feet during daylight Mon hrs and have annotated this possibility within the local terminals.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions are likely to continue into Tuesday night before high pressure shifts off the coast followed by a WFP. Dominating VFR to return through the end of the week except for possible onshore movement of sea fog Thu and Fri especially across the CRE/MYR terminals.

MARINE

Through Monday...Light winds from the SW quadrant this afternoon will become NE overnight and increase to 15 to 20 KT with gusts to 25 KT for Monday. Seas of 2 to 3 FT this afternoon will build overnight to 4 to 6 FT by Monday morning with 7 footers possible nearer 20 NM Monday. Small Craft Advisory remains up, beginning at 06Z tonight.

Monday Night through Friday...Marine conditions will be improving Monday night as winds and seas lower, with sub- advisory conditions forecasted by Tuesday morning. Therefore, the end time of the Small Craft Advisory has been trimmed back to 12z Tuesday. Northeast winds Tuesday will shift to light onshore winds Tuesday night, veering further to southerly winds Wednesday night through the end of the week. Seas 3-5 ft Tuesday and Tuesday night, lower to 3-4 ft for Wednesday through Friday, primarily as SE swell.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254-256.