textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Frost Advisory is out for tonight for all inland counties except for Inland Pender County which has a Freeze Warning. Updated 00Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Cold air remains in place tonight, with some temperature recovery beginning tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold air remains in place tonight, with some temperature recovery beginning tomorrow.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure is still sprawled across the Northeast and MidAtlantic with a ridge axis down into the Southeast. This main high is moving eastward while by Thursday a smaller center of high pressure will be overhead. This means one last chilly night tonight. Guidance is in good enough agreement that although northern zones will see some frost another night of freezing temperatures is not anticipated. One has to get down to the NBM25th percentile before freezing temperatures are advertised and even the NBM10th caps values at a low of 29. Used the NBM50th in addition to local radiational cooling tool. Some slightly higher dewpoints will advect into SE NC where some frost appears likely whereas NE SC dewpoints will be too low.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR. Some high clouds will stream over the area but otherwise not much in terms of clouds. Light/variable to calm winds tonight with NE winds becoming SW as the high pushes overhead Thurs afternoon. The change in wind direction might be slower towards the coast, outside of the current 24hr TAF period, but winds are supposed to stay light during this shift at or below 4 kts.

Extended Forecast... VFR likely through Monday.

MARINE

Through Thursday... High pressure currently centered over MidAtlantic/NE states with a ridge axis extending into the Carolinas. The center of the high will progress eastward on Thursday while a weaker, secondary center sits overhead. Winds will remain out of the northeast, abating slightly late Thursday with the approach of the high. Seas w ill be comprised of a 3-4 ft wind chop as well as a E to SE flow associated with a tightened gradient well offshore associated with Monday's frontal boundary.

Thursday Night through Monday... Previous forecast remains on track with winds staying under 10 kt early in the period, becoming 10-15 kt out of the S/SW over the weekend as sfc high pressure builds south of the area. The next chance of SCA conditions arrives early next week with a strong cold fropa, with gusts up to 25-30 kt possible. Seas through the period consistently in the 2-4 ft range, which includes a 9-10 second easterly swell component.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ087-096-099-107-109. Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 9 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ105. SC...Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Thursday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None.