textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect until 8PM this evening for Cape Fear area, including the coastal waters. Small Craft Advisory end time shifted earlier to 10PM. Discussions updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Through This Evening.

2) Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible This Weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered Showers & Storms Possible Through This Evening.

A remnant MCV is currently moving eastward across central NC, sparking convection ahead of it, including along the sea breeze. Isolated strong to severe storms are possible given the abundant heat and humidity in place, supporting plenty of instability while modest wind shear helps with storm organization. While the most supportive conditions for severe storms exist north of the area, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch was raised for the Cape Fear area as plenty of instability and greater DCAPE exist with southward extent, which may help offset the weaker effective shear (~20 kts) this far south. Behind the MCV, a mid-level shortwave trough will send a cold front southward, serving as a lifting mechanism which should be able to spark isolated to scattered showers and storms later this afternoon into this evening, mainly near the boundary. Once again, any severe storms should be isolated and relatively short-lived due to the weak vertical wind shear. Nevertheless, convection associated with the front will gradually shift southeastward into the Pee Dee region and dissipate into tonight, with cooler and drier air filtering in overnight.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Above Normal Temperatures Continue; Heat Advisory Possible This Weekend.

Behind Tuesday's cold front, near-normal temperatures and dry conditions are expected for Wednesday and Thursday. Expect highs in the upper 80s to near 90 on Wednesday and lower 90s on Thursday.

For Friday through this weekend, significant heat is anticipated as ridging over the Atlantic pushes back into the South. Triple digit heat indices return on Friday and rise considerably over the weekend, with Heat Advisories possible as max temperatures push into the mid-upper 90s and overnight lows settle only into the mid-upper 70s. Prepare to limit time outdoors and drink plenty of water!

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Gusty winds are affecting the terminals this afternoon ahead of a cold front and isolated showers and storms will continue to pass near or over the NC terminals for at least the next hour or two, with brief restrictions possible. A cold front is expected to push southward later this afternoon with a broken line of showers and storms possible along it, bringing brief restrictions to the terminals back into the picture into this evening while gusty winds subside. After the showers and storms dissipate or move offshore, expect a quiet night with mainly clear skies and light north winds as cooler and drier air filters in. Fog is unlikely due to the incoming dry air and expectation for winds to continue through the night. However, if KLBT sees enough rain today and winds become calm for long enough to support shallow fog late in the night, there may be short-lived MVFR restrictions.

Extended Forecast...Mostly VFR through Sunday. The exceptions would include a low potential for fog Thursday and Friday mornings, and some slightly better convection chances Sunday.

MARINE

The Small Craft Advisory is in effect until 10PM EDT this evening for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out to 20 nm. Gradient winds out of the southwest will continue with gusts up to 25-30 kts until late afternoon. Seas peak around 5-7 ft late this afternoon before subsiding this evening. A cold front moves through the waters late tonight, allowing the winds to veer to the NNW and settle around 10-15 kts. Seas also improve to 2-4 ft early Wednesday.

With high pressure in control over land behind the cold front, winds settle to 10 kts or less for Wednesday night through Friday morning. Seas subside to 1-3 ft amidst the light winds. Bermuda high pressure then takes over and abnormally hot temperatures over land help to tighten the pressure gradient, leading to a breezy Friday and Saturday with sustained winds as high as 15-20 kts and seas rising to 3-5 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ250- 252-254-256.