textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

Marine hazards were adjusted with the addition of a Gale Watch and Gale Warning over some areas.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Occasional light rain today and Thursday with cool temperatures, drying out for Friday into the weekend with continued below normal temperatures.

2) A developing coastal storm off the Mid-Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Occasional light rain today and Thursday with cool temperatures, drying out for Friday into the weekend with continued below normal temperatures.

Cold air damming setup through Thursday will lead to a couple days of cool temps, gusty NNE winds, and occasional light rain although most of the time will be rain-free. Dry NW flow then moves in for Friday with dry weather and below normal temps continuing into the weekend. Guidance does show some moderation in temps early to mid next week, so expect highs back in the low/mid 80s, but still well shy of the heat and humidity we had earlier this month.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A developing coastal storm off the Mid- Atlantic and southern New England coasts will bring hazardous marine/coastal conditions this week.

Latest sfc analysis shows 1011 mb low pressure centered directly east of NC. This low will strengthen as it slides northeastward, with the tightening pressure gradient between that and sfc high pressure well off to the north leading to increasing winds and seas. Strong NNE winds and increasing astronomical tides will lead to hazardous marine and coastal conditions, including minor coastal flooding potential and dangerous rip currents, especially north of Cape Fear where high surf is also possible. See marine section below for details regarding marine hazards.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Widespread IFR stratus is expected to continue through this morning across the sites before lifting slightly at the coast to MVFR this afternoon. Light sprinkles or showers may affect the terminals, but any MVFR vis restrictions are unlikely. NNE winds will continue with little change in direction, gusting around ~20 kt at times.

Extended Outlook...High likelihood of MVFR to IFR cigs into Thursday morning, then low to moderate chance late Thursday through early Friday. Mainly VFR expected thereafter as low pressure pushes farther away from the area.

MARINE

Worsening marine conditions expected today into Thursday in response to a tightening pressure gradient between offshore low pressure and a CAD ridge off to the north. Made some changes to the headlines based on latest guidance and being closer in time to the strongest winds...a Gale Warning is now in effect starting tonight over the NC waters from 20-60 NM, and a Gale Watch is in effect starting Thursday aftn for the NC coastal waters out 20 NM and SC waters from 20-60 NM. Confidence in frequent gusts to 34 kt is about 50% over the watch area, and headlines will be further adjusted as we get closer. Winds will be slow to subside, but much improved marine conditions are anticipated by the weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for NCZ106-108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through this evening for SCZ054-056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252. Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night for AMZ250-252-284. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Friday for AMZ280.