textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 7am... 12Z aviation discussion updated.

As of 249am... For Tue and Wed Max temps, have tweaked upwards each day, with 80-85 range away from the beaches Tue...and mid to upper 80s, away from the beaches, for Wed and Thu.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday thru Thursday followed by scattered convection associated with the next cold frontal passage late Thursday. Temps will drop back to near normal Friday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: Above normal temperatures expected Tuesday thru Thursday followed by scattered convection associated with the next cold frontal passage late Thursday. Temps will drop back to near normal Friday into next weekend.

Sfc high pressure slides farther offshore and east of the Carolinas Tue thru Thu but continues to ridge back to southern SC. This setup will result in Sw winds thru the period. Followed by a nice warmup back to above normal with summer like temps especially Wed and Thu where mid to upper 80s away from the beaches will be common. With the sun now hier in the sky given summer solstice roughly 50 days away, did add a few degrees to the highs for Mon thru Thu, especially with flow aloft generally westerly. A mid-level s/w trof dropping out of Canada to the lower to mid Mississippi River Valley Wed, will drive to the east and aid in pushing a sfc cold front across the ILM CWA and off the coast by late Thu. Ahead of it will see a modest chance for convection especially during the midday thru early evening time slot which will aid convection development. Individual tstorms have the potential to deposit a decent amount of rainfall, unfortunately in a more localized arena as opposed to the pcpn event this past Sunday where it was more widespread.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR has returned to all terminals as northwest winds picked up early this morning. Expect VFR to continue through the day with northwest winds backing this afternoon to westerly and backing further to light southerly or calm after sunset. Some gustiness should be observed at KILM as remnant faster flow aloft is mixed down during the late morning into the afternoon, but these gusts should abate around mid-afternoon.

Extended Forecast... Predominantly VFR through Wednesday. An approaching cold front on Thursday may produce early-morning stratus along with transient restrictions in showers or thunderstorms during the day.

MARINE

Through Tonight... As low pressure pulls away to the northeast, northerly winds will subside through today and back this afternoon as high pressure moves over the waters, with speeds falling to around 5-10 kts by late afternoon. Elevated seas in the 2-5 ft range in the 0-20nmi zones and 4-7 ft in the 20-60nmi zones will gradually subside through tonight to 1-2 ft in the coastal waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60nmi waters. The primary contributor to the wave spectrum will be northeasterly swells with a period around 7-8 sec while northerly wind waves also contribute.

Monday through Thursday night...Sfc high pressure centered just off the Carolina coasts Monday, will slide well offshore and east from the Carolinas Tue thru Thu, but at the same time, ridging back to the WSW and onshore between Cape Romain and the mouth of the Savannah River. This positioning will initially have winds southerly Mon, then from the SSW-SW Mon night thru late Thu. Winds will increase to and above SCA thresholds Thu with sporadic Gale force gusts across the offshore waters, ahead of the approaching cold front due to the tightening sfc pg. The cold front to move off the mainland and across the coastal and offshore waters Thu evening/night with post frontal gusty NW to N winds, likely continuing the SCA threat and possible Gale gusts offshore for a short period. Seas across the coastal waters generally 1 to 3 ft Mon into Tue, increasing to 2 to 5 ft by later Wed and 3 to 6 ft Thu. For the offshore waters, generally add 1 to possibly 2 ft especially Wed thru Thu. Seas generally governed by short period waves this period except Mon into Tue where an underlying small E-ESE long period swell to persist.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.