textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Increased Fire Danger Statement will be issued based on expected conditions and coordination with NCFS. Otherwise, there are no other major changes from the current forecast thinking. Otherwise, the aviation discussion has been updated for 18z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above-normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity, and very limited rain chances through Saturday afternoon will continue to support drought and fire weather concerns.

2) Rain Saturday night into Sunday will be too light to bring appreciable drought releif.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Above-normal temperatures, low daytime relative humidity, and very limited rain chances through Saturday afternoon will continue to support drought and fire weather concerns.

Above normal temperatures will persist with tonight's lows and again with Saturday's highs. Normal low temperatures are in the mid 50s - and lows inland tonight will likely be in the upper 50s, lower 60s at the coast. Warm advection and good insolation will lead to Saturday high temperatures from around 80 at the beaches to the upper 80s inland. The moisture profile ahead of the next cold front is dry through the column through much of Saturday - which will limit any rainfall chances during the day. There could be a isolated/few brief showers and t-storms during Saturday afternoon but not much in the way to assist with the current drought conditions. The aforementioned dry conditions, coupled with some gusty winds tomorrow will support an increased fire danger. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Rain Saturday night into Sunday will be too light to bring appreciable drought releif.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A cold front will be coming through on Sunday. It will even be accompanied by some dynamics as a moderate shortwave swings through later Sunday. Forecast soundings that show deep layer saturation appear highly suspect given the lack of backing to SW through the column, the largest veer being shown is WSW. This also applies to the boundary layer where winds to not back sufficiently for good moisture advection into the region. Even should the current QPF pan out no drought relief is anticipated as only the finest of fuels will show any form of moisture recovery. Just as droughts take many weeks of dry weather to develop so too do they usually need a period of wetter weather to abate. Take ILM's 9 month rainfall total for example being to just 62% of normal. The next cold front is due around Thursday and looks to have similar moisture challenges. A front-running shortwave should also bring low shower coverage on Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing through tonight into Saturday. Could see a few/isolated showers/thunderstorms pop-up by early afternoon Saturday but not enough coverage to include at the terminals. Otherwise, SWly flow will prevail backing some overnight then veering some during the day.

Extended Forecast...Showers associated with a cold front could bring MVFR conditions Saturday evening through Sunday. Stratus/fog are possible Sunday night, and again during Monday night.

MARINE

Through Saturday...The SWly pressure gradient will remain pinched through this evening resulting in gusty winds across the waters. The gradient will relax overnight allowing winds to decrease. SWly flow will continue again during Saturday ahead of the cold front. Seas will respond as well, becoming choppy but likely remaining below Small Craft Advisory thresholds through this period. Convection should remain lacking as well, but nearshore interest could run into an isolated shower/tstm along the resultant sea breeze in the afternoon Saturday.

Saturday night through Wednesday... A cold front will cross the waters on Sunday bringing veering from SW all the way to N as a cool season-looking wedge of high pressure noses in from the north. Winds increase a category with FROPA but no headlines are anticipated. The veer may also kill off what weak swell energy had been in place with only two shorter period wind waves in the forecast by Momday. The wedge washes out by Tuesday allowing for a return of southerly flow that will likely be capped at just 10kt for the remainder of the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.