textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Heat indices have been lowered for today and are forecasted to remain below advisory criteria (for the first time since July 1).

KEY MESSAGES

1)Scattered to widespread storms this afternoon into evening hours. Storms may produce strong winds and/or localized flooding.

2)Slightly below normal temperatures to start the work week, with elevated rain chances due to stalled frontal system.

3)Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered to widespread storms this afternoon into evening hours. Storms may produce strong winds and/or localized flooding.

A weak front, currently across northern NC, will slowly drop south into our area today and a surface low is forecasted to develop along the front. In addition, a positively tilted upper trough over OH/KY will slowly dig southward into Monday. These two mechanisms, combined with abundant instability, will fire off scattered to widespread thunderstorms this afternoon through late this evening. While shear may be limited overall and mostly focused along the front, PWATs of 2-2.5" will contribute to wet microbursts and risk of severe weather will be present for strong wind gusts. There will also be a risk of isolated flooding with storms later today with mean wind of 10 kts or less. Even with extreme drought present for much of SE NC and NE SC, especially coastal areas, heavy rain rates with any slow moving storms may still lead to flooding concerns especially for low-lying areas or places that saw rain the past two days. REFS guidance highlights a 40-50% of 2+ inches through tonight for coastal counties.

Worth noting, forecasted high temperatures today are in the low 90s. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, heat indices may reach triple digits. However, forecasted conditions are below Heat Advisory conditions (HI >= 105F) and therefore no advisory will be in effect today - first time without a Heat Advisory since July 1st.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Slightly below normal temperatures to start the work week, with elevated rain chances due to stalled frontal system.

The front is forecasted to stall south of our CWA through Tuesday, with the upper trough still impacting the Southeast through Monday night. Moisture remains plentiful and rain chances remain elevated Monday and Tuesday. Mostly cloudy skies will help keep temps well below normal Mon and Tues with highs in the 80s - a welcome relief to the recent heat wave, however brief.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Warm weather returns late week as ridge builds over the Southeast.

Warming trend returns Wednesday and forecasted temps are back above normal by Thursday as a ridge builds over the Southeast. While it's too early to talk about possible advisories, the NWS HeatRisk map is highlighting a major heat risk for our area Thursday through Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR conditions will prevail through this afternoon. There is a chance of shallow fog developing for a couple of hours around dawn for inland NE SC, but not expecting any impacts to aviation. Diurnal cumulus clouds around 5-7 kft starting midday with light winds becoming more variable as a front drops into the area during the day. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and continue into this evening. Have included TSRA with MVFR vsbys for all terminals between 22z and 3-4z - timing will be fine tuned with subsequent TAFs. As storm chances decrease tonight, low stratus is forecasted to develop towards end of the TAF period especially for inland terminals.

Extended Forecast...Low stratus forecasted for much of the area, especially inland terminals, early Monday morning. Showers and thunderstorms remain a concern for temporary flight restrictions through Tuesday. High pressure will slowly build into the region by midweek with predominantly VFR conditions Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE

Southwest winds around 10 kts today will become more varied tonight and Monday as a front drops into the area before stalling. Seas 2-3 ft through Monday, SSW wind wave mixing with SE swell. Scattered to widespread thunderstorms are forecasted over the local coastal waters late this afternoon into early tonight, with rain/storm chances lingering into Monday due to stalled front. Winds remain generally less than 10 kts Tuesday and Wednesday, with NE winds Tues shifting to offshore flow Wed, and seas around 2-4 ft. WSW winds increase to 10-15 kts, with gusts to 20 kts for 20-60nm coastal waters, Wednesday night and Thursday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.