textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Discussions updated. Forecast lows for Monday night have nudged lower and frost is becoming a concern for normally colder spots.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of the new week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of the new week.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather with near- to below- normal temperatures through much of this week. Expect highs in the upper 60s to around 70 and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s away from the immediate coast through Sunday night. As ridging aloft nudges in from the west, high temps are expected to rebound early this week, bringing highs into the middle 70s while lows remain mostly in the 40s through Thursday night. One exception looks to be Monday night as another shot of dry air filters in behind a dry cold front. Calm winds, clear skies, and dry air all support great radiational cooling, with lows likely dipping into the mid-30s in the normally colder spots, bringing a chance for frost.

A significant trough in the jetstream is forecast to develop and send well-below normal cold into the eastern US late this week. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around the broader trough, there is at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Expect light north winds through this morning before a high pressure center passes just west of the area, resulting in light and variable winds this afternoon and early evening. Calm winds will then take over soon after sunset.

Extended outlook...VFR through at least Wednesday. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday, confidence is low and will depend on timing of next system.

MARINE

Northerly winds around 10-15 kts early this morning will subside to 10 kt or less by early Sunday afternoon. Benign marine conditions continue into early Thursday with winds mainly under 15 kts out of the west to southwest. Southwest flow starts to increase late in the new week, but confidence is low on when this increase will occur. Could be as early as Thursday, but may be delayed until Friday. Will depend on the evolution and timing of the next system.

Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-5 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters on Sunday will gradually subside through Monday into the 1-2 ft range in the nearshore waters and 2-3 ft in the 20-60 nmi waters. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while offshore-directed wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late in the week in response to increasing winds, although exact timing of the increase remains uncertain.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.