textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A warm front will bring above-normal temperatures and low rain chances through Wednesday. A strong cold front will move through by Thursday bringing cold, dry conditions through Saturday. Expect well- below normal temperatures and much drier conditions Thanksgiving Day. High pressure moves off the coast early next week bringing near normal temperatures and increasing rain chances.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Weak coastal trough just offshore will move onshore then lift northwest around daybreak. The trough may be accompanied by some light sprinkles or perhaps even a shower along the immediate coast within a few hours of sunrise, but measurable rainfall will be in short supply. Somewhat better rain chances arrive later in the day as a weak warm front moves north across the area. Isentropic lift ahead of the warm front is limited given the passage of the coastal trough, but afternoon timing will allow for a couple hundred J/kg of SBCAPE. Despite limited moisture this morning, precipitable water is currently 80-90% of normal, the passage of the coastal trough and then the late day warm front will lead to a surge of tropical moisture. Precipitable water increases to more than 200% of normal by mid afternoon and stays AOA 200% of normal through tonight.

Coverage of any afternoon and evening showers will not be much more than scattered. While there is some surface based instability and a bit of weak convergence associated with the warm front, lapse rates are marginal at best. Remains of the mid-level cap from the previous day linger into the evening and while the flow aloft is weakly divergent, there is no real shortwave energy or jet streak to kick anything off. Another round of showers will try to move in from the west late tonight, ahead of a cold front, but coverage will again be limited. Plenty of moisture around, but the lack of dynamics and surface based instability after midnight does not bode well for rain chances. Best bet will be inland, close to the cold front, but even here showers will struggle. Strong warm advection leads to temperatures well above normal today and tonight.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

A shortwave ahead of a cold front will move through Wednesday. This will support some light showers inland, moving towards the SE NC coast through the day before dry air takes over for the rest of the period. SW winds could gust near 30 mph during the day. The front as well as a couple waves of CAA aloft will move through Thursday and then again Thursday night. This could lead to a windier forecast than currently shown as the jet stream settles overhead at the same time. Temps will fall by about 10 degrees Wednesday to Thursday, with sub-freezing lows Thursday night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Cold, dry conditions will linger through Saturday as high pressure sits in the area. The high will start to move off to the N/NE Sunday putting us in its return flow, a possible coastal front forming. Temperatures will recover to near normal with shower chances increasing.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

VFR overnight with the exception of possible brief MVFR ceilings along the coast near daybreak as a coastal trough moves onshore. Trough will lead to winds shifting from east-northeast to southeast, but speeds remain under 10 kt throughout the day. VFR during the day with potential for MVFR ceilings/visibility as weak showers ahead of a warm front move north across the area. Environment is not supportive of widespread coverage, thus have PROB30 group for coastal terminals although confidence in presence of showers is low. VFR returns following the passage of the warm front and lasts through 06Z.

Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR possible late Tuesday night and Wednesday. VFR returns late Wednesday and continues through Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...East to northeast flow will become southeast later this morning as coastal trough moves inland. Not much change to the gradient today with winds 10-15 kt. Warm front lifts north across the waters late in the day with flow behind the front becoming more southwesterly. Gradient tightens up slightly behind the front with southwest flow a solid 15 kt overnight. Seas 2-3 ft today build to 3-4 ft tonight. This morning's dominant northeast wind wave will be replaced by a southeast wind wave later today and tonight.

Wednesday through Saturday...An increased PG will lead to SW winds gusting ~25 kts, resulting in a Small Craft Advisory through Wednesday. Small Craft Advisory conditions may again be possible as the cold front moves through Thursday, winds becoming offshore. A strong PG will linger into Friday before high pressure leads to better conditions into the weekend. Highest waveheights will be Wednesday at 3-5 ft, otherwise seas will be 2-4 ft through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 7 PM EST Wednesday for AMZ250-252.