textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only minor changes for the new forecast period. Coastal Flood Advisory issued for downtown Cape Fear Friday night. Aviation section updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1)Mainly Dry Conditions through Saturday with one more day of lower humidity levels

2) Wet and Unsettled Sunday into Next Week

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mainly Dry Conditions through Saturday with one more day of lower humidity levels

Weak sfc high pressure over the area will gradually weaken and dissipate this afternoon and evening. However, a very dry airmass will remain in place across the area, largely limiting any seabreeze- driven convection today while providing one more day of relatively comfortable humidity levels.

By Saturday, the humidity will be on the rise as low-level flow becomes increasingly southerly ahead of an approaching warm front. While most locations will remain dry, a few showers cannot be ruled out. Rain chances increase Saturday night as the front moves into the area.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Wet and Unsettled Sunday into Next Week

A shortwave trough will drop south out of the Upper Ms Valley late into the weekend, with guidance suggesting it may evolve into a weak upper low over the TN Valley/Deep South and linger into late week before gradually filling.

Deep southwesterly moisture transport between this slow moving system and subtropical ridging over the western Atlantic will maintain an axis of anomalously moist air, with PWATs of 2.0-2.50", across eastern portions of the Carolinas through much of the period.

Combined with a quasi-stationary frontal zone draped across and daily diurnal heating, showers and thunderstorms are expected to become numerous at times beginning Sunday and persist through much of next week. This pattern could provide some much needed drought relief, with widespread rainfall total of 1 to 2 inches possible during the period. Locally higher amounts will be possible where storms repeatedly track over the same area, which could also lead to isolated flood.

Widespread/persistent cloud cover and elevated rain chances should keep temperatures near to slightly below normal through the period.

AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Very dry air remains in place across the region, supporting predominately VFR conditions through the TAF period.

Extended Forecast... Onset of south-southeasterly return flow will increase the potential for low stratus and/or fog Saturday and Sunday mornings. An unsettled aviation pattern is expected Sunday through Tuesday as a slow moving upper trough, stalled frontal boundary, and anomalously moist airmass impact the region. Numerous showers and storms are expected each afternoon and evening, with periodic sub-VFR restrictions in heavy rain and thunderstorms. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day.

MARINE

Through Monday...Through Monday... Light and variable winds will become southeasterly this afternoon as weak sfc high pressure over the area dissipates this afternoon and evening. Southeast winds gradually increase late Saturday and veer to southerly over Saturday night as a stalled front lifts back to the coast. Winds increase considerably on Sunday as the pressure gradient tightens and the front lifts inland, resulting in breezy south winds with gusts likely to pass SCA criteria on Sunday and possibly into Monday.

Weak winds will yield benign seas between 1-3 ft through Saturday night. Seas rapidly increase to 4-6 ft as winds increase on Sunday and these continue into Monday before relaxing gradually on Monday night.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT Saturday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.