textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All discussions have been updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Scattered storms early in the week then increasingly hot with limited rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Scattered storms early in the week then increasingly hot with limited rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...A weak cold front will move in from the north today, stalling in the region. Front is moving into an unstable airmass, but has no support aloft. Mid-level subsidence under the weak 5h ridge holds on across northeast SC. However, forecast soundings do show the subsidence weakening across southeast NC, which is where the CAMs depict scattered afternoon and evening storms. Front sags a little farther south Tue with a weakness in the 5h ridge allowing at least some shortwave influence. Mid-level subsidence continues to increase, but northeast to east flow will lead to temps 5-8 degrees cooler, limiting instability. Still expecting scattered storms Tue afternoon, with northeast SC favored.

Ridging aloft consolidates Wed, extending across much of the southern CONUS into the start of next week. Above normal temperatures will follow with highs into the upper 90s at times away from the coast. Lack of dewpoints into the mid 70s will keep the heat index shy of advisory thresholds despite highs 10 degrees above normal. Given the heat and the presence of a sea breeze and Piedmont trough isolated diurnal storms will be possible any day, although the 5h ridge will limit coverage.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

VFR through 18Z before isolated to scattered storms could bring short lived MVFR/IFR, mainly for KLBT. Storms will develop along/ahead of a weak front moving in from the north. Light east to southeast winds into the afternoon will become northeast following the passage of the front. Any storms will weaken/dissipate after sunset with VFR returning.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR ceilings possible Tue/Wed nights (mainly at KLBT/KFLO). Restrictions from isolated afternoon/evening storms possible each day, mainly inland. Otherwise VFR.

MARINE

Southwest flow around 10kt or less across the waters today is replaced by northeast flow tonight into Tue following the passage of a weak backdoor front this evening. Modest northeast surge behind the front. Not enough to warrant headlines, but brief increase to 20 kt is not out of the question, mainly for NC waters. More typical south to southwest flow returns to the waters Wed as the post front surface high to the north shifts east. The combination of the high and inland thermal trough will enhance southerly flow, especially Thu/Fri. Speeds 15-20 kt seem reasonable given inland warming late in the week. Seas 2-3 ft today with more widespread 3 ft Tue, a result of the surge, before 2-3 ft return for Wed. Increasing southwest flow Thu/Fri helps build seas to a solid 3 with isolated 4 ft beyond 20nm each afternoon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.