textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections except Marine have been updated, although there are no significant changes to the previous forecast message. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for minor coastal flooding along the lower Cape Fear River during today's mid-day high tide.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the next few days, mainly during the daytime high tides along the lower Cape Fear River.

- 2) Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Minor coastal flooding remains possible for the next few days, mainly during the daytime high tides along the lower Cape Fear River.

Positive tidal departures continue to improve, but high astronomical tides may still lead to minor coastal flooding the next few days, mainly during the daytime high tides along the lower Cape Fear River.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Warming trend continues through Saturday, allowing temperatures to soar above seasonal norms. Next earnest rain chances return over the weekend.

Ridging will continue to build through Saturday, keeping the warming trend around. Temperatures warm up a degree or two every day through Friday. Highs around 90F appear possible along and west of I-95 as early as Wednesday, with those chances solidifying more by Thursday and Friday (could potentially be 90-92F in some spots). Moisture parameters pick up as well, with dewpoints soaring into the 60s, and even into the lower 70s for the coastal areas Thursday through Saturday. Friday in particular could be the most hot and humid day of the week, with the heat index climbing up towards 93-95 in some spots (in October, mind you).

Pattern starts to flip by Saturday. The heat ridge starts to push offshore, while a very broad trough pattern that stretches from near the PNW all the way to New England helps to suppress the ridge southward. Weak shortwave energy breaks off the broad trough and will help produce scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Saturday, but nothing appears to be a washout at this time. These rain chances appear to get a bit more bullish by Sunday and into early next week, as part of the broad trough in the Ohio Valley amplifies and sweeps through the Southeast as a more organized frontal system. Still much to debate about the timing and organization of this system, along with what kind of rainfall amounts to expect.

What is becoming more apparent is a significant cooldown coming early next week, where highs may only get into the 70s. Bring back a more legitimate fall!

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Any patches of shallow fog early this morning will burn off quickly as the sun rises. VFR and clear skies will dominate during the day, with near-calm winds inland and light SE sea breeze at coastal terminals. Increasing low level moisture and calm winds will lead to a better chance of fog across the area tonight/early Thursday morning. Vsbys are forecasted to be lower inland, with potential for IFR conditions. A thin stretch of cirrus is expected to move across overnight, which might impact timing of fog development, but any high clouds will be brief.

Extended Forecast...Moderate to high risk for late night/early morning fog and low clouds due to increasing low-level moisture. Moderate risk for showers/storms starting Sat aftn at all terminals.

MARINE

Through Sunday...Rather benign marine conditions expected through the first half of the weekend, with a gentle breeze that fluctuates a bit out of the E to S during the daytime, becoming a more variable light breeze at night. Winds strengthen very slightly up to a moderate breeze out of the SSE by Sunday. Seas remain at 1-2 ft through Wednesday, with perhaps some 3 ft waves trying to sneak into the waters out 60 nm by Wednesday night. In between light wind chop, look for a persistent long period southeasterly swell at 10-14 seconds, and a secondary easterly swell at 8-10 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.