textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances Wednesday night have continued to trend down.

KEY MESSAGES

1) The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1: The threat for widespread hazardous weather remains very low through early next week.

The remainder of the week is expected to be dry aside from isolated showers over northern areas Wednesday night. Similar to the previous forecast, the chances of rain and rainfall amounts have been decreased in this update with deep-layer moisture lacking. Any rain will be over by early Thursday morning, with dry W/NW flow in place for Thursday and Friday and high temps in the upr 70s most areas. A warming trend then ensues over the weekend with most guidance showing upr-level height rises along the eastern seaboard...latest forecast is for highs in the low 90s inland areas Sunday and Monday. Fortunately, moisture levels will be held in check so max heat indices shouldn't be much higher than the air temps.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR through the 18Z TAF period. BKN to SCT cirrus will continue into this evening, with some cloud decks down to 8000 ft possible. Some gusts out of the ENE up to 18-19 kts have been observed at the coastal terminals, but should slow down by sunset. Light and variable winds overnight tonight, but drier air in the boundary layer and high clouds should keep fog concerns out of the conversation. Winds veer more the southeast towards the end of the period, especially along the coast with the seabreeze.

Extended Forecast... VFR should prevail through Wednesday afternoon. Very slight chance of flight restrictions Wednesday night into Thursday morning with a cold front moving through, but confidence is low. VFR should return through the rest of the period.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... Fresh breeze out of the ENE this afternoon will come down to a moderate breeze tonight, gradually becoming a gentle breeze throughout the day Wednesday. Winds fluctuate very little on Wednesday between the E and ESE. Small Craft Advisory was cancelled earlier this afternoon, and seas will gradually improve. Seas at 3-5 ft out 20 nm will come down towards 2-4 ft by late Wednesday afternoon, while 6-8 ft seas over the offshore waters out 60 nm will come down towards 4-5 ft. Outside of wind waves, look for a secondary southeasterly swell at 10-11 seconds.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Sub-SCA conditions are expected for the remainder of the week into the weekend. Sfc high pressure will be over the waters much of the time, aside from a cold fropa Wednesday night which is only followed by weak CAA and winds far short of criteria on Thursday and Friday. Aside from typical aftn sea breeze enhancement, expect winds up to only 10-15 kt over the weekend with 2-3 ft seas.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108-110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None.