textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

High pressure north of the area will bring chilly weather until it moves offshore tonight. Gusty southwest winds will bring warming on Wednesday before a dry cold front moves through early Thursday. Cool and dry high pressure will migrate across the Southeast through early Friday. As the high moves off the coast Friday, warming will take place into the weekend with above normal temperatures. Another moisture starved cold front will move through Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

High pressure will be overhead for the majority of the period leading to dry conditions. There is some uncertainty around when clouds will clear up this morning. Some low clouds could hang on towards the coast but should clear up by the morning. This evening a wave of mid/high levels clouds will move through from the north as a weak shortwave passes aloft and the center of high pressure shifts to our south after midnight. Highs in the 40s with lows in the upper 20s, near freezing at the coast.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/

Increasing southerly return flow will produce a breezy and relatively warm day on Wednesday with plenty of December sunshine. Deep low pressure will track across the Great Lakes on Wed, dragging a cold front through Wed eve. The gradient flow ahead of the front will tighten and expect gusty S-SW winds through Wed afternoon. Plenty of dry air will extend down into the Gulf and therefore the SW return flow will not produce much moisture return at all and therefore the front will move through moisture starved. Pcp water only reaches a half inch ahead of passage. Temps will rebound from a chilly morning to near 60 degrees in WAA.

Once the front moves through, CAA will kick in leading to cooler temps on Thurs. Should end up about 10 degrees cooler than Wed. Expect another cold night with temps down near freezing or below for Thurs night.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Deep low will lift off into the north Atlantic leaving a very broad trough across the eastern CONUS with rising heights and warming temps. A decent jet will ride across the base through NC and may see some high clouds on Fri but this axis of stronger upper level winds will shift northward leaving clear skies into Fri night. Sfc high over the Southeast will shift offshore Fri night leaving a warmer return flow once again heading into the weekend. Overall, some passing mid to high clouds on Fri will give way to clearing and plenty of sunshine on Sat with temps rising from mid 50s on Fri to 60s on Sat.

By early Sun, the next cold front will be approaching. Southerly winds will begin to veer westerly. Enough low level moisture may get wrapped around from the Gulf ahead of the front early Sun to produce clouds. Pcp water values reach up to about an inch and soundings show shallow moist layer. Therefore temps may be warmer to start on Sun, but clouds and frontal passage should lead to cooling through Sun aftn into Sun night. Don't think there will be enough moisture for any pcp. If not, we could see an extended period of sunshine without any rain once again as fairly strong high pressure builds in through early next week. Temps up in the 60s over the weekend will be back down possibly near or below 50 again for highs on Monday with overnight lows back down near or below freezing beginning Sun night.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Have shifted TAFs towards the later clearing situation of ~17-18Z but there are some pockets of clearing showing up this morning just not in our area... clearing should generally be from the NE to SW. Some high clouds could push in this evening as a shortwave moves overhead, light northerly winds becoming southwesterly late in the period.

Extended Outlook...Predominant VFR.

MARINE

Through Tonight...High pressure overhead will lead to improving marine conditions through the morning as winds and seas decrease. Northerly winds will be ~10 kts by the afternoon, becoming westerly late tonight as the center of the high shifts to our south. Waveheights will respond similar with seas decreasing to 2-4 ft by this afternoon where they'll remain through the night.

Wednesday through Saturday...Increasing gusty SW winds expected on Wed gradient tightens ahead of an approaching cold front. The warmer winds over the cooler waters may underperform a bit, but overall expect SW winds increasing from 10 to 15 kts Wed morning to 20 to 25 kts through Wed evening. This will lead to a Small Craft Advisory late Wed into Thurs before front moves farther offshore through Thurs with diminishing offshore winds. Seas up near 5 to 7 ft Wed night will be down to 2 to 3 ft ft by Thurs afternoon and will continue on the lower side through much of the weekend as winds back around as fairly weak high pressure migrates across the Southeast.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ106-108-110. Coastal Flood Advisory from noon today to 3 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for AMZ250- 252-254-256.