textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and near to below normal temperatures through the middle of next week.

Surface high pressure will dominate the weather with considerably cooler and drier air filtering in for this weekend and beyond. Expect highs in the upper 60s to low 70s and overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s away from the immediate coast. As ridging aloft nudges in from the west, high temps are expected to rebound early in the new week, bringing highs into the middle 70s while lows remain mostly in the 40s through Wednesday.

A significant trough in the jetstream is forecast to develop and send well-below normal cold into the eastern US late next week. As multiple embedded shortwaves rotate around the broader trough, there is at least a low chance that scattered showers affect parts of the area, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR through the valid TAF period. Northerly winds will occasionally gust to 15-20 kt through 21Z before winds aloft weaken and mixing decreases. Northerly surge arrives around 00Z tonight with a slight increase in north-northeast winds for much of the overnight.

Extended outlook...VFR through Wednesday. MVFR/IFR may return Thursday, confidence is low and will depend on timing of next system.

MARINE

First northerly surge has started to weaken, but another northerly surge tonight will kick winds up near 15 kt nearshore and 15 to 20 kt for the 20 to 60 waters this evening into tonight. Winds drop to 10 kt or less by Sun afternoon. Benign marine conditions continue into Thu with winds mainly under 15 kts out of the west to southwest. Southwest flow starts to increase late next week, but confidence is low on when this increase will occur. Could be as early as Thu, but may be delayed until Fri. Will depend on the evolution and timing of the next system.

Seas 2-4 ft nearshore and 4-6 ft for 20-60 waters into Sun end up cut almost in half by Mon as winds decrease. An easterly swell will be a dominant contributor to the wave spectrum with a period between 9 and 11 seconds while offshore-directed wind waves are secondary. Seas will start to build late next week in response to increasing winds, exact timing of the increase remains uncertain.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.