textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00Z aviation forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1)Thursday may bring advisory level heat index values and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

- 2) Small Craft Advisory winds over the water late tonight into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Thursday may bring advisory level heat index values and poses a small but non-zero threat for both severe weather and increased fire danger.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Hot weather returns on Thursday but there is enough uncertainty to preclude a Heat Advisory at this time. Convective debris clouds expected to be approaching from the west to dim sun and hamper insolation. Additionally the mid level ridge will be centered further east than our last heatwave. The remnants of Arthur will traverse the area Thursday night into Friday morning. As always tropical remnants can pose a threat for wind gusts or even brief, weak tornadoes but give the size and asymmetry of the system confidence is quite low regarding the threat level for either, though it seems quite low and may last into Friday morning. Lastly an Increased Fire Danger SPS was debated but winds appear marginal and the RH remains high enough (especially given the aforementioned clouds hampering the heat) that we've also held off on any fire-related headlines.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Small Craft Advisory winds over the waters late tonight into Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... See marine section below.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Big story this valid TAF period will be the winds which will be from the southwest and increase overnight into Thursday from 5 to 10 KT presently to 10 to 15 KT with gusts of 20 to 25 by about midday Thursday. On the plus side, it looks like conditions will be mainly VFR until the potential arrival of showers and storms aft about 21Z.

Extended Forecast...an approaching strong cold front along with potential low pressure accompanied with tropical moisture will bring some restrictions Thu night thru early Sat due to more numerous showers/storms. VFR expected later Sat thru Mon.

MARINE

Winds remain out of the SW in the near term, getting bolstered late tonight into Friday by the approach of a cold front and possibly a very weak surface reflection of the remnants of Arthur. Within this period of increased winds there will be some hard-to-time fluctuations where part or all of the area could fall sub-advisory with winds so the start and end times of the headline may need some minor finessing. Late Friday night brings a cold FROPA and a wind shift to the N that will be quite brief before veering begins. Swell energy through most of the entire period remains offshore keeping dominant wave periods 6-7 seconds.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from midnight tonight to 3 AM EDT Thursday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Thursday to 7 PM EDT Friday for AMZ254-256.