textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

A weak cold front will drop south into this evening bringing relatively cooler weather for Thursday. A warm up will follow for Friday and Saturday with more unsettled weather. Another cold front will move through Saturday night with drier high pressure and cooler, more seasonable weather for early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

Shortwave tracking off the coast will drag a cold front south, but will get strung out from west to east as flow flattens out aloft and ridge begins to build in from the west. This will lead to a weak cold front dropping south through this evening but the southward progression should slow. Overall expect shallow cooler air bleeding in from the north creating a decent north to south gradient of cool to warm temps beginning tonight. Overnight lows will be in the mid 40s north to mid 50s south. There is a chance of clouds affecting the temps on Thurs but basically mid 60s north to lower 70s south as high pressure extends in from the north with light northeasterly winds and front lingers to the south.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

A frontal system will affect the area during this period, mainly resulting a cloudiness from time to time. The warm front will life north through the area Thursday night into Friday followed by the cold front late Saturday. It's not impossible there could be a little light rain as the warm front lifts northward and showers in advance of the cold front. Unfortunately, the chances for a wetting rain are low and any rainfall will be light. Temperatures should be above normal through the period unless the warm front moves north more slowly than anticipated Thursday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High pressure will build into the area Saturday night and remain through Monday before another frontal system affects the area Tuesday into Wednesday. The chances for measurable rain look a little better Tuesday and Wednesday as the attendant low coming from the Gulf Coast region may bring more moisture with it than the weekend system will have available. For the most part, temperatures will remain at or above normal through the period.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR generally expected. SW to W winds will veer to the NW to N and eventually NE as a cold front drops south into this evening. By 00z all terminals should have NE winds, remaining 10 kts or less. High pressure will extend down from the north behind the cold front into Thursday with light NE winds veering slowly around to the E as high pressure shifts off the coast. Soundings indicate slight chc of lower clouds into Thurs morning, but chances too low to include at this time.

Extended Outlook... Mainly VFR, but there will be a low chance of spotty visibility issues early Saturday morning.

MARINE

Through Thursday...A cold front will drop south through the waters this evening with W-NW winds shifting to N-NE and picking up a bit behind the front. By midnight winds should be NE mainly 10 to 15 kts. Winds will remain NE as high pressure extends down from the north through Thursday. Seas around 2 ft will rise a foot or so on Thurs in NE push.

Thursday night through Monday...Despite a fairly progressive pattern, the gradients with the associated frontal troughs and high pressure aren't particularly strong. This should limit wind speeds to 15 KT or less through most of the extended period as winds veer from easterly Thu night to south to southwest for Friday into Saturday. A cold frontal passage will bring W to NW winds late Saturday into Saturday night. High pressure will result in N to NE winds Sunday into Monday with a turn toward the east possible late Monday. Seas should run 2 to 3 feet through much of the period with 4 footers possible ahead of the front Saturday when wind speeds will be at their peak of 15 to perhaps 20 KT.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.