textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z package. Guidance remains aggressive with fog potential late tonight and early Wednesday. Have made adjustments accordingly, but confidence remains somewhat low.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Temperatures well-above normal through early next week

2) Widespread marine fog possible from Wednesday through the weekend

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Temperatures well-above normal through early next week with increasing chances for showers this weekend

Mid-upper ridging over the Bahamas will build in while surface high pressure shifts to a position near Bermuda by Thursday. This will result in anomalously warm air overspreading the area, with highs expected to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s away from the coast from Thursday onward, with low-mid 70s along and near the coast. Abnormally high dew points will support lows in the mid-50s to low 60s from Thursday night onward, coolest at the beaches. Mainly south to southwest winds will prevail during this period, allowing for a healthy sea breeze to spread inland of the intracoastal waterway each afternoon. Strong subsidence and weak flow aloft should preclude any pop-up shower development through Saturday. However, a decaying cold front is expected to bring increased chances for showers, especially on Sunday into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Widespread marine fog possible from Wednesday through the weekend

Details below in the marine section.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Latest model guidance remains aggressive with areas of dense fog developing after midnight. Dewpoints have climbed into the lower and mid 50s in light easterly flow and would be supportive of areas of fog with potential LIFR, particularly if winds go completely calm. VFR conditions will return after sunrise Wednesday.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected for much of the extended period but patchy fog could bring late night/early morning restrictions and sea fog could advect into the Grand Strand terminals Wed night-Fri.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...NE winds 10 to 15 KT will become E at 5 to 10 KT overnight before backing to the north Wednesday morning before becoming southerly during the afternoon Wednesday. Seas will run 2 to 4 FT.

Wednesday night through Saturday... Bermuda high pressure will maintain control through the period with winds generally out of the south to south-southwest at speeds of 10 kts or less. Seas of 2-4 ft will be primarily driven by ESE to SE swells with a period of 9-10 sec. As dew points rise into the mid-upper 50s tomorrow and the upper 50s to low 60s on Friday over water temps in the low 50s, sea fog is likely to develop, although it is questionable if this will occur on Wednesday or hold off until Wednesday night, with increasing coverage from Thursday onward.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.