textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the previous forecast. Aviation discussion updated for the 06Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.

2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices around 105F.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.

We enter a more typical precipitation pattern with showers and storms primarily in the afternoon with the sea breeze under a wide field of high pressure. Dry air may lower coverage today and Saturday compared to yesterday, before moisture returns from the south Sunday. Into early next week the high will strengthen with rain chances isolated to widely scattered, most likely on the sea breeze in the afternoon and then inland in the evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices around 105F.

As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting as early as Monday.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

VFR to start off the 06Z TAF period. Environment still remains favorable for early morning fog development inland today. Currently have the lowest visibilities and potential for LIFR conditions across inland SE NC, including KFLO, between 8z and 13z. Morning fog and accompanying low cigs will clear after sunrise. May see a few hours of MVFR conditions at MYR and CRE around 14-17z with low diurnal cumulus bases around 2000-3000 ft. Otherwise, predominantly VFR today. Convection is forecast to be isolated to widely scattered, so have kept rain out of the TAFs for now.

Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week with winds averaging out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. Seas will average 2-4 ft, with a persistent 7-8 second SE swell being the primary contributor to the wave spectrum.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.