textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 00Z TAFs. Headlines updated for surf hazard changes with the evening Surf Zone Forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1.... Strong high pressure and a meandering nor'easter will keep dry and breezy conditions in place with prolonged hazardous surf/marine conditions through at least midweek.

Surface low pressure well offshore of the North Carolina coast is expected to meander but gradually shift northward through midweek, keeping a tight pressure gradient in place. This will lead to continued cool and dry air, gusty north winds, and hazardous marine conditions. See the marine discussion for more details. Hazardous surf and high waves are also a concern, particularly for the New Hanover County coast, through tonight. Late in the week, the low is expected to be shoved away from the mid-Atlantic coast as another strong high pressure system builds in, bringing another period of gusty north winds late in the week and into next weekend. Temperatures are expected to remain near- to below-normal through next weekend. Surface winds will then begin to gust up to around 20 kt after daybreak Tue before stopping by the end of the TAF period.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR conditions through the 00Z TAF period. LLWS should develop late tonight until just after daybreak as surface winds subside and winds increase just above the surface.

Extended Outlook... A nor'easter well offshore will maintain breezy northerly winds into midweek, but VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the week due to abundant dry air.

MARINE

A nor'easter off the North Carolina coast will gradually meander northward through midweek, with winds and seas gradually decreasing through Thursday. Gale force gusts are expected to exit the northeastern corner of the 20-60nmi waters by midnight tonight. In the coastal waters, Small Craft Advisory conditions are anticipated to linger into Tuesday morning across the SC coastal waters and gradually fade across the NC coastal waters on Wednesday, although 6ft seas may linger near 20nmi southeast of Cape Fear through Wednesday night. As the nor'easter is shunted away from the mid-Atlantic coast late this week, another strong high pressure center is forecast to move in, tightening the pressure gradient again and bringing a renewed threat for hazardous marine conditions from late Friday through the upcoming weekend.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents through Tuesday evening for NCZ108. High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement through Tuesday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Tuesday for AMZ254-256. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Tuesday for AMZ280.