textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

6z aviation discussion below.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Beneficial rainfall will occur this afternoon into tonight, with total rainfall between 0.5" and 1".

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Beneficial rainfall will occur this afternoon into tonight, with total rainfall between 0.5" and 1".

Low pressure system and associated upper trough currently approaching the Gulf states will move across the Southeast late this afternoon into this evening. Rain increases this afternoon from the west and south as a warm front lifts north across most of the area and deep isentropic lift develops. Might be a brief lull late afternoon before rain rates increase again as the surface low and PVA moves across this evening. Rain exists the area tonight with low clouds lingering into Monday.

QPF ranges from around 0.5" for coastal NE SC/southern Pee Dee region, to 0.75"-1" across the Cape Fear region and west of I-95. There is a slight chance of elevated instability and thunder late this afternoon into this evening, which would contribute towards the higher rainfall estimates. Looking at model soundings and weak lapse rates aloft, might be tough for the instability to materialize. Regardless of total QPF, no flooding concerns with any rainfall being welcome for our ongoing moderate to severe drought.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

VFR will prevail through this morning. Low pressure system moving across the area this afternoon into early tonight will lead to widespread rain and low clouds. Flight restrictions will develop from this afternoon around 17-19z as MVFR cigs move in and intermittent low visibilities develop with widespread rain through this evening. IFR cigs may develop by late this afternoon, with higher chances for IFR, and possible LIFR ceilings, this evening into tonight. There is a slight chance of thunder late this afternoon into evening hours, particularly at coastal terminals, but confidence too low for TAF inclusion at this time. Light winds this morning before 5-10 kt southeast winds develop during the day with gusts to 15 kts. Winds turn southerly this evening, veering to northwesterly at the end of TAF period. There is a brief window of potential LLWS at coastal terminals this evening, around 0-3z, as southerly winds at 2000ft increase to 35-40kt.

Extended Forecast...Flight restrictions linger into Monday morning before VFR returns Monday afternoon. Predominantly VFR during the day through mid-week, with a chance of fog/stratus each night and early morning.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Onshore flow will be increasing today as a low pressure system approaches from the west and a warm front lifts north this afternoon. Southerly winds peak this evening at 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds turn westerly tonight and northwesterly by Monday morning as the low exists the area. Seas in turn will be building throughout the day, starting around 1-2 ft this morning and increasing to 5-8 ft by late this evening due to swell from long fetch of southerly winds. Seas will slowly be improving through the night, expected to be in the 4-6 ft range by Monday morning, with southerly swell still the primary component. Widespread rain is expected over the waters starting this afternoon and continuing into early tonight, with intermittent moderate rain rates and low visibilities. There is a slight chance of thunder late this afternoon into evening hours.

Monday through Thursday...Although the cold front will be offshore Mon morning, headlines will likely continue into Mon afternoon before conditions improve. Low pressure east of the Delmarva Peninsula strengthens as it moves away from the coast. The gradient between the deepening low and high pressure building in from the west will keep northerly flow near 20 kt for much of Mon. Seas will remain above 6 ft into the afternoon before the gradual decrease in speeds and the northerly component lead to seas within 20nm dropping under 6ft. High moves overhead Tue into Wed with winds becoming light and variable and seas dropping to 2-3 ft. Return flow sets up Wed and increases to 15-20 kt Wed and Thu with the gradient becoming more defined. Enhanced southerly flow will build seas to 3-5 ft for the middle of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 7 PM EST Monday for AMZ250-252. Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Monday for AMZ254-256.