textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Above normal temperatures with mainly late week rain chances.

High pressure will slowly move offshore bringing a warming trend with temperatures quite a bit above normal much of the week. Seems to be decent agreement on a more amplified weather pattern later in the week, with a few upper disturbances likely bringing increasing moisture and rain chances. However, details regarding timing and amounts of rainfall are more uncertain. At this time ensemble guidance suggests total rainfall through Monday is most likely to be ~0.5" for most locales with a low chance for 1"+. The latest guidance also suggests a small but non-zero risk for a few severe storms on Fri depending on the timing of a cold frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

High confidence in VFR prevailing through the TAF period with a low chance for MVFR mist to reach KLBT near the end of tonight. Otherwise, expect steady northeast winds to continue with some gustiness possible around midday to early afternoon as winds turn more easterly.

Extended Outlook... Predominantly VFR. Low to moderate risk for restrictions due to low clouds/rain increases mid week and continues into early Saturday.

MARINE

High pressure centered northeast of the area will slowly shift offshore ahead of a weak storm system impacting the area mid to late week. Elevated seas will continue this afternoon and a few 6 foot seas will remain possible for our southern SC waters. Conditions will then improve some into mid week and should remain under Small Craft Advisory levels through the rest of the week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.