textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Cold front to drop south and stall in the vicinity of Cape Romain today. A fast moving storm system will move east northeast along this front, passing south and offshore, east of the area, later tonight and Sun. Expect a quick dose of rainfall, later this morning thru this evening. High pressure will prevail Sun with the high moderating early next week. The high to slide and park just off the Carolina coasts during the mid to late week period of next week allowing for a nice warming trend across the Bi-State region.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Frontal boundary dropping south, poised to stall just south of the area in the vicinity of Cape Romain during Sat daytime morning. At the same time, mid-level southern stream s/w trof will approach from the WSW and fire up a sfc low along the stalled sfc front by midday Sat and with the aid of a weak low amplitude mid-level s/w trof dropping down from the WNW, will both help further intensifying the low as it moves off the SC Coast and eventually well offshore from NC by Sun morning. Clouds will thicken and lower this morning, with mainly stratiform light rain developing and persisting well into the evening. There will be pockets of moderate rain during the aftn/evening, mainly east of the I-95 corridor to the coast. The rain will end from west to east by midnight tonight, with residual low cloudiness remaining thru daybreak Sun. QPF will run from 0.20 to 0.50 inches, with the heaviest totals generally east of the I-95 corridor. Todays max temps will likely occur during the morning hrs followed by steady or slowly falling temps during this aftn as clouds, pcpn and some CAA all combine. Pcpn will have ended well before temps drop into the 30s during the pre- dawn hrs, a few 32 degree readings possible which could result in potentially black ice with drying slow to occur.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

Northwesterly mid level flow through the period will downslope off of the mountains and dry out the column, with PW values falling to 0.3". At the surface high pressure will build in from the NW becoming centered over VA by Sunday night. Expect seasonable temperatures and full sunshine, though forecast soundings show that there may be a little cirrus level moisture.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

High pressure moves off the coast on Monday. The resulting southerly flow remains very light, only adding a few degrees of warmth compared to Sunday's highs. This gradual warming trend continues Tuesday into Wednesday while zonal mid level flow keeps the area sunny. The late week period will see some hier rises in the mid levels but also a continuation of very light boundary layer winds tempering what would otherwise be a considerable warmup.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

VFR with spotty light rain at p6sm to start the 12Z tafs. A frontal boundary dropping south will switch winds to the N-NE. This front will stall in the vicinity of Cape Romain later this morning with low pressure progged to develop and move ENE along the front and offshore, staying south and east of the local terminals thru early Sun. This means N-NE winds at 5 to 10 kt to materialize this morning, with 10-15 kt closer to the coast, to prevail across the local terminals once the front is south of the area. Overrunning clouds and pcpn will take the current VFR conditions quickly thru MVFR and likely to IFR conditions within a 2 to 4 hr period later this morning thru the aftn. IFR from stratiform light to moderate rain and fog will prevail thru the aftn and evening, with the pcpn ending from W to E later this evening. IFR to possibly LIFR clouds and/or fog/drizzle to prevail after the rains end later this evening into the overnight.

Extended Outlook...Restrictions will linger into Sunday daytime morning given latest various model time height RH displays in the lower levels of the atm. VFR should return later Sun and prevail through the rest of the extended period.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Marginal SCA raised for the NC Waters only, in effect between 6pm Sat and 6am Sun. Mainly for 25 kt wind gusts and 6 ft seas primarily affecting the outer waters off Cape Fear, ie. 15 to 20 nm out.

Sfc front dropping south to stall in the vicinity of Cape Romain later today. Sfc low will develop along it, passing south and east of the local waters this afternoon thru tonight. It will provide a tightened sfc pg, especially across the NC Waters, as it passes by while intensifying. Marginal SCA conditions will occur across the NC waters mainly and will be brief as the low progresses at a pretty decent speed away from the waters by Sun daybreak. The 1 other marine influence from the low will be the potential vsby drop to 1 to 3 nm due to the light to moderate rainfall, from late morning thru midnight tonight.

Sunday through Wednesday... Abating winds and seas on Sunday as low pressure accelerates off to the northeast. The post-frontal high becomes centered over VA by Sunday night, it's closest approach to the local area before it translates offshore. Veering winds will winds up SWly by Monday night into Tuesday where they will remain for the remainder of the forecast period. Beyond the agitated seas Sunday the rest of the forecast will be rather quiet with waves averaging 2-3 ft with a period of 6-8 seconds as no appreciable swell energy develops.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.