textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion issued for 00 UTC tafs. A high risk for rip currents will be issued shortly for all beaches Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Unsettled weather pattern ongoing, with periods of widespread showers and storms likely through at least midweek.

- 2) Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to continue into Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2

Strong southerly winds and hazardous marine conditions expected to continue into Monday.

Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 8 PM EDT Monday. See the Marine section below for more details.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Probably the best coverage of showers with embedded thunder moving across the area currently. Some guidance shows it staying intact across the coast but there are doubts. With this in mind used a tempo group in Florence with VCSH and prob30's elsewhere. With this being the strongest wave so far there may be a prolonged quiet period from about 0800 UTC through midday Monday. All in all some MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible any time but probably more prevalent during the convection hours.

Extended Forecast...Periodic sub-VFR restrictions will be possible in heavier showers and thunderstorms Monday afternoon through at least Wednesday, and potentially even into Thursday. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning stratus each day. Widespread VFR might be due to return late Thursday into Friday.

MARINE

Through Friday...Small Craft Advisory currently in effect for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm until 8 PM EDT Monday. Winds will continue to escalate to a fresh to strong breeze out of the SSW. In response to these gradient winds, seas rapidly increase to 4-7 ft out 20 nm, up to 7 ft out 60 nm, before improving gradually towards 3-4 ft Monday night and Tuesday. Winds back slightly to the S Tuesday, improving to a moderate breeze, and then towards a gentle breeze by Thursday. Winds continue to back slightly to the SE by Friday. Seas continue to improve to 2-4 ft.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ110. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.