textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1)The heat and humidity continues for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...The heat and humidity continues for the next several days.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...Though slightly flattening in amplitude mid level ridging will be in place across the Gulf States though Monday with some slight amplification and retrogression thereafter. Heat Index values still in advisory realm save for Cape Fear Region which will see the front lift through back to the north later in the day. A healthy piedmont trough develops Monday and Tuesday bolstering the warmth with 850mb temps approaching an impressive 24C...75F at a mile elevation! At first Monday seemed a certainty for an Excessive Heat Watch but one possibly significant uncertainty has caused us and neighboring WFOs to hold off. That uncertainty is the development of some very steep hydrolapse rates that are forecast to develop in the boundary layer and dewpoints could drop several degrees each afternoon in very deep mixing. This uncertainty will repeat itself on Tuesday which otherwise may be another candidate for Heat Warning criteria. Additionally although the forecast remains dry both days the GFS in particular shows some PVA- induced convection that could disrupt the mid August sunshine.

AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Mainly VFR conditions expected outside of a low to moderate risk for cig/vsby restrictions at the start of the period. Maintained PROB30 groups for showers/storms, especially this aftn/early eve, as a lingering front and sea breeze spark convection. Cig/vsby restrictions will be possible again tonight.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected much of the week outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions at times.

MARINE

Tonight through Thursday... Front both lifts northward and dissipates today allowing for gentle southerly flow to return. Wind waves rather minimal and SE swell energy not really arriving until Tuesday. For mariners this will only represent a subtle change in the 2-3 ft dominant wave forecast as the 3 footers will become more noticeable.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-109-110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.