textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

As of 615am... Aviation discussion updated for 12Z TAFs.

As of 248am... All sections updated with no significant changes made to the previous forecast with the latest update.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

2) Summerlike conditions and a cold front will lead to our next rain chances early next week, which will then be followed by a bit cooler and drier high pressure.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry weather and large day-to-night temperature ranges are expected for the remainder of this week under high pressure.

High pressure will continue over the area through Friday before shifting offshore to start the weekend. Cooler than normal temperatures are expected through tonight before temps get back above normal starting on Friday, although could still squeak out another below normal night Fri night depending on how much radiational cooling occurs. Fortunately, dewpoints should still be fairly low even on Saturday so heat indices shouldn't be much more than the lower 90s.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Summerlike conditions and a cold front will lead to our next rain chances early next week, which will then be followed by a bit cooler and drier high pressure.

A cold front looks to approach from the north Sunday night before pushing through on Monday which will bring our best rain chances. However, even on Sunday we can't rule out a few showers/storms along the sea breeze as dewpoints should push into the lower 70s. A bit cooler and drier weather is then expected toward mid week as high pressure returns from the north.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

VFR is expected to continue through the TAF period with north winds this morning turning east to southeasterly this afternoon as the sea breeze moves inland. No clouds are expected this afternoon amidst a dry troposphere and this supports a forecast of no fog tonight despite calm winds.

Extended Forecast...VFR through Sunday night with a low chance for shallow ground fog or low stratus early Sunday morning. Transient restrictions are possible due to showers/storms on Monday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Conditions gradually improving with a light to moderate breeze out of the N/NE hanging on into midday. Wind will then veer more onshore later today as the sea breeze develops and high pressure builds southward into the area. Significant sea heights will continue to lower to 2-4 ft over the nearshore coastal waters out 20 nm and to 4-5 ft over the 20-60 nm offshore waters.

Friday through Monday...High pressure over the area will shift offshore Friday and linger into Mon before a cold front starts to impact the area. No headlines expected.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.