textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory and a potential for a few strong to severe storms today.

-Dangerous heat is expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Heat Advisory and a potential for a few strong to severe storms today.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... The mid level ridge remains locked in just to our west today while 850mb temps hover around 20C. The heat will continue and another in what will be a long string of advisories is in place. There was some uncertainty about some warning-worthy HI values of 110 or higher materializing but they should be too few and far between to warrant the upgrade especially given the continuation of widespread cirrus level moisture taking the edge off of the still strong insolation. A front will drop into the area as well. This boundary will be the focus of thunderstorm development, some of which will be strong to severe, though the spread in forecast instability is making for some uncertainty. Then again storm coverage and intensity has overperformed in some of our recent NW flow events so I like the high chance to likely POPs that the NBM gave me, most focused along and ahead of the front, though the area-wide QPF looked a bit too high and was trimmed.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Dangerous heat is expected through much of the upcoming week.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... By Sunday the mid/upper ridge will become focused across the lower MS Valley but it will continue to influence weather conditions across the area. The heat combined with high relative humidity will continue to support high Heat Indices across the area. The worst of the conditions will likely be Monday and Tuesday afternoon with a Heat Index potentially 110+ for a larger extent. Since the forecast area is on the eastern side of the ridge during this time, the W- NWly flow aloft could lead to some hard to time impulses being directed across the forecast area. These storms could provide relief for some areas this week, with lesser storm chances Monday and Thursday.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in mainly VFR thru the 12Z TAF period. Main concern will be showers/storms this aftn/eve, especially near coast and at KFLO where we have converted PROB30 groups to TEMPO groups given the higher risk for restrictions as a weak cold front moves into the area. Light fog and/or low cigs are also possible briefly at the start of the period (mainly inland at KFLO/KLBT) and again tonight, especially in NC which should be on the northern side of the boundary. However, confidence is still too low to mention.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions are expected through much of the period outside of any convection. Afternoon to early evening storms could result in brief restrictions Sunday, Tuesday, and Wednesday.

MARINE

Tonight through Wednesday...A cold front drops into the area today. Winds will remain very light though pinning down an exact wind direction is tricky as there may not be one save for the southerly component lingering most across southern zones south of the stalled boundary. Winds and thus waves (in the absence of much swell energy) will be quite minimal until a small uptick in SW flow occurs on Monday ahead of the next front.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...None.