textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Weekend heat along with gradually increasing rain chances.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Weekend heat along with gradually increasing rain chances.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Today's pattern featuring the locked in mid level ridge will change Saturday into Sunday in favor of low amplitude vort-laden troughiness. Pair this with a weak cold front dropping into the area in the presence of all of the heat/instability in place and the stage should be set for increased rainfall. Naturally this activity will be scattered and QPF will vary wildly from place to place to rather than area-wide drought releif isn't expected. Today and Sunday's highs will be similar to today's and so Heat Advisories are once again expected, though areas north of the front may have difficulty in reaching quite the values seen today. This boundary, or whatever remains of it, will be pushed further south Monday/Tuesday by a slight sharpening of the mid level trough abating the heat while remaining close enough for a hopeful continuation of healthy rain chances. By the end of the forecast we may be transitioning to zonal mid level flow, building heat, and dwindling rain prospects.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms forming along the seabreeze are possible near coastal terminals this afternoon. A secondary, later arriving chance (after 00z), could spread over inland terminals this evening as a weakening front pushes in from the northwest. Brief MVFR/IFR CIGs and VSBYs are possible in any storm, but given limited coverage will not include a mention at this time.

The front will stall across the area Saturday, which should yield greater storm coverage Saturday afternoon and evening. SW winds ~10 kt with the sea breeze bringing S winds 15-18 kts. Inland terminals could briefly become NWLY late tonight as the front arrives. Otherwise, winds should remain light and variable area-wide as the boundary meanders overhead.

Extended Forecast...A secondary front early next week will bring a period of wet and unsettled conditions through midweek. MVFR/IFR in afternoon and evening storms remain possible this weekend into early next week. Patchy morning fog and/or stratus also possible, favored where heavy rain fell the day before.

MARINE

Tonight through Wednesday... The setup is typical for June early on with a Piedmont Trough bringing SW winds and the Bermuda High (which is squished to the south a bit) brining a minor SE swell. A front dropping into the Carolinas will weaken the winds Saturday while a strengthening of the inland trough reverses this trend. A second reversal back towards weaker flow is then slated for the latter part of the forecast period along with a slight veer to W as the boundary moves further south.

CLIMATE

Hot temperatures are expected this weekend which may reach record highs. The hottest day is expected to be today, but Sunday may reach similar levels. The high temp records for each climate site are provided below for these dates (June 12 and 14).

Location Jun 12 Jun 14 Wilmington, NC: 98 (1920) 99 (1958) Lumberton, NC: 103 (1911) 101 (2015) N. Myrtle Beach, SC: 96 (2016) 98 (2010) Florence, SC: 97 (2022) 102 (1958)

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ087-096-099- 105-107-109. SC...Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ017-023-024- 032-033-039-055-058-059. MARINE...None.