textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) An extended period of hazardous marine conditions beginning tonight and persisting through the end of the work- week. Gale conditions expected tonight into Wednesday night.

2) Elevated fire danger today in NE SC and likely Wednesday across SE NC and NE SC.

3) Hazardous surf conditions at the coast into the weekend.

4) Below normal temperatures through Thursday night, with a very low risk for patchy frost inland Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...An extended period of hazardous marine conditions beginning tonight and persisting through the end of the work- week. Gale conditions expected tonight into Wednesday night.

See Marine Section below for details.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Elevated fire danger today in NE SC and likely Wednesday across SE NC and NE SC.

A large, cold, and dry airmass is sinking into the Great Lakes. Many single digit dewpoints are noted across most of the area. The southern periphery of this airmass will start to encroach into the Carolinas tonight into Wednesday dropping our dewpoints into the 30s. The increased pressure gradient between this high and the frontal boundary well offshore (all of FL and most of the SE coast a baroclinic leaf on satellite) builds winds locally. And although Red Flag Warning conditions should not develop the current drought along the with falling dewpoints and gusty winds will almost guarantee Fire Danger Statements area- wide through the afternoon just like today's, which was confined to our SC zones only. The drying is pronounced through the entire column. PW values fall to 0.19", the absolute lowest for the date.

KEY MESSAGE 3...Hazardous surf conditions at the coast into the weekend.

Strengthening and prolonged northeast winds will lead to elevated breaking waves along the coast tonight into late week, potentially reaching our High Surf Advisory threshold of 6 ft as early as late tonight along E-facing beaches and continue into Thu night, mainly for E/SE- facing beaches.

An elevated rip current risk is also anticipated into late week due to strong winds and elevated surf, mainly for E/SE-facing beaches. Strong longshore currents are also expected due to strong NE winds through at least Thursday.

KEY MESSAGE 4...Below normal temperatures through Thursday night, with a very low risk for patchy frost inland Wednesday night.

Unseasonably cool airmass in place due to high pressure to the north into late week. The coldest temps are expected tonight and Wed night when some of the normally colder inland spots should dip into the 30s, although the risk for frost and even freezing temps looks to be quite low given the elevated clouds/winds.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR continues. High pressure will nose in from the north tonight into Wednesday. NE winds will become gusty especially along the coast. Cirrus will continue to be quite extensive.

Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through the end of the week.

MARINE

Through Wednesday... Strong 1035mb high currently being pushed into the Great Lakes my northern branch jet. Meanwhile well offshore the fairly healthy frontal boundary that brought the end to our warm weather this past Sunday. As the high continues south and east its southern periphery will develop a wedge up against the Appalachians. Northeasterly winds will pick up through the period as the gradient between these two features tightens. Gale Warning remains in effect unchanged as it lasts through the period.

Wednesday night through Saturday night...Strong high pressure to the north will be the main driver of an enhanced pressure gradient over the area into late week leading to solid Small Craft Advisory conditions. The gradient should peak Wed night when gale force gusts are expected. Although winds will subside below SCA levels by Fri, seas will likely not fall below SCA levels (6 ft) until Fri night and/or early Sat. Significant wave heights should peak at around 10- 11 ft Wed night with only a very slow fall thereafter as the high weakens.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 AM EDT Thursday for AMZ250-252-254-256.