textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion updated for 06 UTC Tafs.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC Lowcountry today back into northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina Sunday into Monday.

2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed 105 degrees.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid level ridging remains the dominant feature across the area today. For today the Pee Dee region is favored once again for convection but coverage will be isolated. Worth noting is a couple of cells developed in SE NC yesterday as well so with such an unstable air mass in place it appears all areas at least have a minimal threat for convection. Height falls with an approaching front/trough/sea breeze increase chances across all areas Monday but timing is trending for later in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture remains limited in the prevailing northwest flow allowing heat index values to increase to possible headline criteria. This is predicated on a mostly dry forecast which still this time of year is low confidence especially several days in a row. Shorter daylight hours...starting to be noticeable now make it more difficult for excessive heat as does the ever present complication of dry air mixing down each day.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

With a very persistent pattern in place the 06 UTC taf forecast is just a time extension of the previous forecast. Lumberton and Florence have seen IFR visibilities and ceilings the past few mornings and surface observations show they are on their way again. Used prevailing for the MVFR beginning then transitioned to more restrictive tempo groups. Amendments closer to 12 UTC may be able to apply prevailing restrictions for an hour or two.

Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR/IFR possible in showers and storms with at least isolated coverage possible through the period, greater coverage expected Monday. Late night/early morning low ceilings are possible day, especially inland.

MARINE

Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear. The high should sink south next week, leading to winds veering more westerly and increasing in speed. We also should experience a larger number of showers and thunderstorms today and especially Monday. Not really seeing anything in the winds or seas that come close to any headlines.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.