textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Chilly high pressure starts to arrive behind this evening's cold front. This airmass will bring cold weather through Wednesday night before seasonable temperatures return. The next system should bring good chances for some much needed rain on Saturday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

A strong cold front is making its way through the Carolinas and should be off the coast by 7 PM. As sometimes happens with westward- moving fronts, the high terrain of the southern Appalachians has split the feature into two parts: a southern portion zipping eastward across South Carolina, and a slower northern segment moving southeastward across NC's western Piedmont. Shallow convective showers could drop a few hundredths of an inch in spots before clearing off by coast by 4-5 PM. Forecast measurable rain chances are 30-40 percent.

Shallow mixing ahead of the front has already produced wind gusts near 30 mph. Deeper mixing as cold advection begins behind the front could bring down some 35 mph gusts late this afternoon through the evening. Wind speeds should gradually diminish overnight. I'm bumped up NBM lows toward the warmer GFS/ECMWF MOS numbers for most locations with lower 30s anticipated near the coast and upper 20s inland.

A dry and cold Canadian airmass will remain in place Tuesday as high pressure centered over eastern TX builds slowly eastward. Highs should only reach 46-48 under full sunshine.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

Quiet but cold weather slated for the short term. Surface high pressure Tuesday night will be over TX so while cold locally we shouldn't decouple and radiate. On Wednesday even though a light southwesterly flow develops, vertical mixing is progged to be capped at 3kft keeping highs about a category below climo. LIght but not calm winds Wednesday night will bring lows that are closer to normal.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Thursday is a transitional day where the TX high becomes centered over FL and a weak front/trough pushes through. Friday will bring a minor uptick in the southerly flow as our local streamlines find themselves between the FL high and low pressure approaching from the west across the Gulf States. Clouds will increase apace in the warm advection and resulting isentropic upglide Friday with rain overspreading the area Friday night into Saturday. With the flat surface wave and front only bisecting the area initially on Saturday before both get shunted to the south we should be in the relative sweet spot for some good drought releif. Seasonable and rain-free weather is expected for the remainder of the long term.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

The cold front has mostly moved through the area with clouds offshore. VFR tonight with some gusts ~20-25 kts possible through midnight. Lighter offshore winds afterwards becoming ~7 kts, and 20 kt gusts are possible tomorrow afternoon.

Extended Outlook...VFR until rain and low clouds arrive Saturday.

MARINE

Through Tuesday...Breezy southwest winds ahead of a cold front should shift west to northwesterly by late afternoon as the front blasts offshore. Sustained winds near 25 knots could gust over 30 knots for several hours behind the front as colder air builds across the area. The Small Craft Advisory will remain in effect for our coastal waters through 6 AM Tuesday. Mariners venturing out beyond 20 miles from shore should be aware a Gale Warning is in effect for this area which includes the Frying Pan Shoals buoy and tower.

Canadian high pressure over the Arklatex region will slowly build eastward Tuesday with diminishing northwesterly winds anticipated.

Tuesday night through Saturday... NW to W winds ease Tuesday night into Wednesday allowing seas to run at just around 2 ft. A weak front/sfc trough Thursday does build wind and seas but only back to more 'typical' cool season values. Flow turns back to the SW later Friday as low pressure approaches from the west. This system will move nearly across the region leading to some variability/uncertainty in the late period wind forecast. It will be weak though and wind/seas won't be as problematic to most mariners as much as the possible lowered visibility from widespread rain.

CLIMATE

Through December 28 observed average temperatures for the month of December have been: Wilmington.............46.6 degrees (3.3 below normal) North Myrtle Beach.....47.4 degrees (2.5 below normal) Florence...............45.6 degrees (3.4 below normal) Lumberton..............44.3 degrees (3.4 below normal)

Using our forecast highs and lows to compute daily averages through December 31 and plugging that into the complete calendar year shows that 2025 will likely be the COOLEST year since 2014 for most of our area. This is despite the six month period February-July 2025 being the first or second warmest during those same 12 years! A very cold January plus consistently below normal temps starting in August have been responsible for knocking the annual average temps so low.

Annual Average Temperatures Year...2025|2024|2023|2022|2021|2020|2019|2018|2017|2016|2015|2014 ILM....64.3|66.0|66.3|65.8|65.7|66.3|66.3|65.1|65.8|65.2|65.3|63.7 CRE....64.1|65.7|65.0|64.1|64.3|66.4|65.8|65.0|65.5|65.3|65.5|63.0 FLO....64.6|66.3|65.2|65.2|65.2|66.2|66.3|65.7|65.5|65.6|65.9|63.5 LBT....63.4|65.4|64.4|64.6|64.3|64.6|65.3|64.5|64.5|64.5|65.2|62.1

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.