textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the 12Z Aviation discussion.

Previous 221am... All Ice Storm Warning and Winter Weather Advisory headlines have been allowed to expire at 1am EST 1/26/26 with NO additional freezing rain/ice accumulation threats expected.

Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for all of Southeast NC and Northeast SC from 10 pm EST this evening through 9 am EST Tuesday morning. Cold front pushes across the area and offshore later this morning followed by new Arctic high pressure ridging across the region later today thru Tuesday. Wind chill readings of 10 to 15 degrees will be common during the mentioned advisory period as active NW winds persist across the area from thru tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Cold front will push off the coast around daybreak Monday with any residual shower activity pushing off the coast and offshore. Arctic high pressure will surge across the area by midday today followed by gusty NW winds and cold conditions that will last into tonight.

- 2) A series of arctic air masses will move over the Southeast this week. Dangerously cold wind chill values are possible for at least a portion of the area every night through the weekend.

- 3) Low pressure passing off the Southeast coast over the weekend may lead to snow across the area. Confidence is very low.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front will push off the coast around daybreak Monday with any residual shower activity pushing off the coast and offshore. Arctic high pressure will surge across the area by midday today followed by gusty NW winds and cold conditions that will last into tonight.

Scattered showers ahead of a cold front will race across the area this morning, depositing a quick 0.15 to 0.30 inches of additional and much needed rainfall. The cold front will push off the coast around daybreak Mon, ended the remaining showers threat. Low clouds will continue after the CFP but look for scouring of the airmass to commence as W to NW flow becomes dominant. High res models indicate the secondary cold front or the Arctic High CAA surge will occur around midday today and persist thru tonight. This will result in gusty NW winds as CAA and a tightened sfc pg combine. Look for clouds to scour out completely during this afternoon with clear skies and dry conditions thru tonight. Tonights lows will drop into the teens, to around 20 at the immediate coast with sfc dewpoints dropping into the single numbers. The gusty winds and cold temps combined will yield wind chill readings in the 10-15 degree range later tonight thru early Tue morning...which has prompted the issuance of a Cold Weather Advisory.

KEY MESSAGE 2...A series of arctic air masses will move over the Southeast this week. Dangerously cold wind chill values are possible for at least a portion of the area every night through the weekend.

Temperatures will run well below normal across the Southeast this week. Reinforcing shots of arctic air arrive on Thu and Sat, following the passage of arctic fronts. Nighttime temperatures running 10-20 degrees below normal and winds 5 to 10 mph will produce wind chill values at or below 15 degrees most nights through the weekend. The only night where apparent temperatures may not reach 15 degrees or lower for at least a portion of the area is Tue night.

KEY MESSAGE 3: Low pressure passing off the Southeast coast over the weekend may lead to snow across the area. Confidence is very low.

A southern stream system moving along the Gulf coast late in the week may interact with a digging 5h trough late in the week. If this interaction occurs, the low would track northeast, off the Southeast coast. In situ cold air will result in an air mass capable of producing snow. However, confidence is very low. The strength and timing of both the southern stream low and the 5h trough will determine if the low is captured by the trough or if it just moves across northern FL and into the western Atlantic. Even if the low is pulled north by the trough, it will need to pass closer to shore. For now the low is something to keep an eye on, but nothing to get excited about.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

IFR/Mvfr ceilings all terminals, with last of the pcpn to affect the coastal terminals, to all transition to MVFR ceilings by and thru 15Z. Once the gusty NW flow becomes better established, look for VFR ceiling improvements across all terminals later this morning or by early this afternoon. Sky conditions will further improve to SKC with just thin cirrus during tonight. The Arctic CAA surge to become established by this afternoon with gusty NW winds prevailing and likely persisting well into tonight. The gustiness should abate during the pre-dawn Tue hrs.

Extended Forecast...VFR and well below normal temps dominate the work week.

MARINE

Through Tonight...SCA remains in effect thru late tonight. Although S-SW winds remain temporarily below thresholds, risen seas above SCA thresholds from earlier continue. CFP slated prior to daybreak, resulting in pcpn come to an end and winds veering to the W-WNW at 10-20 kt. The cold surge later this afternoon associated with Arctic high pressure ridging in, combined with tightened sfc pg will result in NW winds increasing to SCA speed thresholds and should persist thru most of tonight. Seas initially in the 4 to 8 ft range will, transition to a 3 to 7 ft range tonight...with some pancake like conditions near the coast due to the true offshore wind trajectory.

Tuesday through Friday...Other than a brief period of west to southwest winds on Tue, winds will be west-northwest to north through the end of the week. A series of arctic fronts will move across the waters, enhancing winds Wed night into Thu and again later Fri into Fri night. Currently it does not appear headlines will be required Wed night, but a Small Craft Advisory may be need for Fri night. Seas generally 2-3 ft given the offshore wind component. The only exception would be Tue when away from shore 4-5 ft would be possible given the longer fetch and enhanced wind speeds. Seas will be a mix of an easterly swell and multiple wind waves.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ087-096-099-105>110. SC...Cold Weather Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Tuesday for SCZ017-023-024-032-033-039-054>056-058-059. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for AMZ250-252-254- 256.