textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Dense Fog Advisory has been put out for portions of SE NC through the early morning. Elsewhere, patchy dense fog is possible. Drive safely!

Updated 12Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers are likely on Friday with a low chance of strong to severe storms.

After a dry day today aside from some very spotty light showers well inland, a mid-level trough and sfc cold front will move in from the west on Friday. The Storm Prediction Center now highlights a Marginal Risk (threat level 1 out of 5) of severe storms Friday afternoon and early evening, with the main threat being damaging wind gusts. Deep-layer shear will increase through the day, but a lot is contingent on pockets of heating and destabilization to occur, and with much cloud cover expected early on, the threat appears rather low at this point. Regardless, chances of rain are at least 80% over most of the area, with up to quarter to half an inch of rainfall expected on average. The front pushes offshore Friday night, giving way to dry weather over the weekend into at least early next week.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Lowered VSBYs will plague terminals this morning again. Thoughts are that KLBT will see worst conditions. Have TEMPOs at other terminals, with clearing at the coast ~13Z and a bit longer for inland terminals ~14Z maybe even 15Z. VFR with south winds and some stratocu then expected through the rest of the day. Showers are expected to stay west of terminals closer to a stalled front. Restrictions expected again tonight, though there may be showers added into the mix, so a bit lower confidence.

Extended Outlook... Restrictions are likely at times through Friday evening due to fog and low clouds along with passing showers and thunderstorms. VFR is expected to return Friday night as drier air filters in and remains in place through the remainder of the period.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week. A cold front crosses the waters Friday night, but post-frontal CAA is fairly weak so only expecting gusts up to 15-20 kt into the day Saturday. Even weaker winds for early next week as sfc high pressure builds directly into the area from the west.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ087-096- 099. SC...None. MARINE...None.