textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Coastal Flood Advisories have all been cancelled for the entire coast from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC, along with the lower Cape Fear River, including downtown Wilmington.

Other than that, no major changes coming down the track as we approach 2:30 PM EDT.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...Dry high pressure to the north will produce minor coastal flooding and, at times, adverse marine and surf conditions this week.

Breezy northeast winds will continue through the remainder of this afternoon, as reinforcing high pressure builds down the coast through Thursday. The likelihood for strong, dangerous rip currents will remain elevated through the end of the week, along with the potential for strong longshore currents at east- facing beaches. For marine implications, see the Marine section below.

Coastal Flooding: High astronomical tides combined with prolonged, strong northeast flow will push water levels along the coast over minor flooding thresholds, especially with the late morning/midday high tides. No Coastal Flood Advisories in effect at this time, but more advisories will likely be needed to cover the minor coastal flooding expected Thursday.

As far as sensible weather goes, ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface will keep the region dry, but breezy. Increased low- level moisture tonight and Thursday will produce cloud cover, and possibly a few sprinkles, but the shallow nature of the moisture and lack of forcing will prevent measurable rain. Temperatures gradually rise through the work week before settling back to near normal over the weekend. A storm system affecting the Southern Plains late in the week may eventually bring increased rain chances by Sunday and into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. NE breeze may gust up to 18 kts at times this afternoon, coming down by 22-23Z. Think there are more possibilities for flight restrictions after 06Z Thursday, more of a low stratus problem than a fog problem. Boundary layer moisture looks quite high (97-98%) as low as 500 ft, yet most guidance shows more MVFR ceilings than IFR ceilings. Split the difference here, and went with low-end MVFR ceilings (1000-1500 ft) between 08-12Z Thursday. Wouldn't be surprised to see IFR ceilings.

Ceilings should mix out by 12-14Z. NE winds continue up to 8-12 kts towards the end of the period.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR expected through at least Sunday morning, sans the possible fog or low stratus each morning. More widespread restrictions possible Sunday afternoon through Monday as the next appreciable rain chances come in.

MARINE

Through Monday...Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until 12 AM Friday (that's Thursday night into Friday morning) for the coastal waters from Surf City, NC to South Santee River, SC out 20 nm. NE winds continue throughout the entire forecast period, with gradient winds reaching a peak this afternoon (gusts up to a strong breeze). Throughout the advisory, seas range from 3-6 ft along the coastal waters out 20 nm, up to 7 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm. After the advisory, winds improve slightly towards a moderate to fresh breeze Friday, ramping back up to a more solid fresh breeze Saturday through Monday. Along a similar timeline, seas briefly improve towards 2-4 ft over the waters out 20 nm, up to 5 ft out 60 nm Friday and Friday night. Seas then rapidly kick back up towards advisory conditions Saturday through Monday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ108. SC...High Risk for Rip Currents until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Thursday night for AMZ250-252-254-256.