textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs. Beach Hazards Statement issued for New Hanover and Georgetown Counties for a strong north to south longshore current Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1) A strong cold front with a developing Nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine conditions.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will bring strong northerly winds to the area, leading to dangerous marine and surf conditions.

A strong cold front will move through tonight into Saturday morning bringing light rain to the area. Light rain/drizzle may remain possible for SE NC into early next week before the nor'easter moves further off to the north. In the meantime, strong northerly winds will settle over the area through the weekend. Wind speeds and gusts have increased slightly from the previous forecast, with mainly marine impacts expected. Should the wind forecast continue to increase, there is a low possibility for a Wind Advisory along the immediate coast Saturday through Sunday as sustained winds may exceed 30 mph and/or gusts possibly exceed 46 mph. The enhanced winds should also lead to dangerous surf conditions into early next week with at least 6 ft breaking wave heights along east-facing beaches. Wind speeds should decrease slightly into early next week but much depends on the strength/track of the storm.

For marine impacts, see the marine discussion below.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

High confidence in VFR through about 10Z before MVFR and then possibly IFR cigs develop behind a passing strong cold front. The best chance of IFR seems to be about 10-14Z inland at KFLO/KLBT and about 14-20Z near the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR. Mainly light rain is expected inland at KLBT/KFLO toward 12Z and then closer to the coast at KILM/KCRE/KMYR by ~15Z with no significant/persistent VSBY restrictions expected, especially at all terminals outside of KLBT. N winds will increase quickly after the frontal passage late tonight/early Saturday, gusting to ~30 kt at times.

Extended Outlook... Dry air should lead to improving conditions by Saturday night. A nor'easter to our east will maintain breezy northerly winds, but should be far enough away to prevent sub- VFR conditions from materializing.

MARINE

A strong cold front with a developing nor'easter will move over the waters Saturday morning, bringing strong northerly winds to the area. Gale force winds will be well established across the waters by Saturday afternoon. The nor'easter will linger to our east through the weekend, with a stronger surge of winds impacting our SE NC offshore waters into Sunday, where storm force gusts are possible. As the nor'easter moves further away early next week, marine conditions should improve, but Small Craft Advisory conditions may linger into mid week depending on the pressure gradient.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for NCZ108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Saturday through Saturday evening for SCZ056. MARINE...Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 11 AM EDT Monday for AMZ250- 252-254-256-284. Gale Warning from noon Saturday to 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ280. Storm Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for AMZ280.