textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

- 1) Coastal Flood Advisory in effect for downtown Wilmington late tonight.

- 2) Elevated fire weather concerns continue for much of this week due to very dry conditions and severe to extreme drought. Fire Danger Statement in effect Wednesday.

- 3) Cold front this weekend finally brings the first appreciable rain chances seen in awhile.

KEY MESSAGE 3

Cold front this weekend finally brings the first appreciable rain chances seen in awhile.

A cold front with plentiful shortwave energy aloft will bring some of the better chances for rain we've seen in the last two weeks or so. Forecast guidance is starting to come into better agreement this time around, with the bulk of the rain due Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

Rainfall amounts look a bit better than they did 24 hours ago, but still no drought buster by any means. The NBM forecast suite still delivers about a 50% chance of at least 0.5" towards the end of the weekend. Better than expected initially, but still not impressive. Forecast confidence goes down in any higher amounts. Some areas may get lucky with around an inch or so, but I certainly wouldn't count on it.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

VFR. Clear skies and light winds. Only FM groups needed will be to address tonight's lt/var winds becoming SW and gusty in tomorrow's heating of the day.

Extended Forecast...VFR conditions should prevail through Friday. Flight restrictions possible Saturday ahead of a cold front.

MARINE

Through Wednesday...Winds will veer around this afternoon into Wed as high pressure settles offshore. NE winds around 15 kts will become SE to S by tonight and then will increase out of the SW by tomorrow aftn as gradient tightens between trough inland and high offshore. Seas 3 to 5 ft will be diminishing into early Wed as winds drop off, but will increase again starting Wed aftn to 3 to 4 ft most waters.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Moderate to fresh breeze continues from the southwest for much of Wednesday night, gradually veering towards the west by Thursday morning. Gradient winds loosen up a bit by midday Thursday, coming back to a southwesterly wind that lingers right at a gentle to moderate breeze through Saturday night. Seas hang in the 2-4 ft range throughout this time. Moderate breeze veers to the northeast through the day Sunday with the next frontal passage. Seas come up as a result, from 2-4 ft over the coastal waters out 20 nm to 5-7 ft along the offshore waters out 60 nm.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 4 AM EDT Wednesday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None.