textproduct: NWS Wilmington

SYNOPSIS

Dry, near-seasonable weather will continue through today before another frontal system will affect the area around midweek. A warm front Tuesday night will bring above-normal temperatures and low rain chances into Wednesday before the cold front moves through Thursday. High pressure will bring well- below normal temperatures and dry conditions through Saturday before moving off into Sunday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

Generally flat flow aloft today and tonight quickly shifts surface high northwest of the area this morning off the Mid-Atlantic Coast this evening. Tail end of weak cold front moves across the area before dawn, but overall impact to the region is limited given the weak cold advection and its brief duration. Shortwave ridging moves across the area this afternoon, enhancing mid-level warming and drying, ensuring today remains dry. Patchy fog across the area this morning, mainly close to the coast, will mix out quickly, with clear skies today. Later this evening moisture starts increasing around 300mb, leading to an ever thickening cirrus deck overnight. Weak coastal trough starts to develop during the pre-dawn hours Tue which may lead to some low clouds along the coast just prior to dawn. Not much of a signal for any rain/showers with the coastal trough right now, but a sprinkle moving onshore near Cape Fear with the sunrise would not be shocking. Lack of significant cold advection today will lead to highs similar to yesterday, upper 60s to around 70. Cirrus shield and onshore flow will hold lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

High pressure centered to our north will push further offshore ahead of a frontal system, the warm front pushing in from the south Tuesday night. This will be accompanied by an increase in rain chances from SW to NE. Some convection could form offshore as that's where the best instability will be. By Wednesday morning the rain chances will shift to inland as the cold front approaches but lingers inland. Shortwave energy ahead of the front will push through with rain chances moving through Wednesday before the front moves offshore Wednesday night.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

The stuck front will move through into Thursday morning with colder, drier air moving in from the N/NW along with high pressure. Highs will be in the 50s with lows near or below freezing. The high will start to move off to the north into Sunday with temperatures recovering and rain chances increasing.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Widespread VFR for inland terminals the next 24 hours. At the coastal terminals this morning conditions ranging between VFR and IFR will be possible. VFR should be the dominant category, but brief periods of MVFR/IFR will be possible prior to sunrise mainly due to calm winds and increased moisture in the boundary layer. The moisture is very shallow, which will lead to brief drops in visibility with mixing then resulting in improving visibility. An hour of sunrise all terminals will be VFR and will remain VFR through tonight. Winds will gradually veer from northeast to east southeast today, but speeds will be under 8kt.

Extended Forecast...MVFR/IFR possible with showers and fog Tuesday Wednesday.

MARINE

Through Tonight...Minimal northeast surge this morning with northeast winds 10-15 kt. The surge weakens mid-morning with winds slowly veering from northeast to east in the afternoon. Southeast flow eventually develops late tonight as weak coastal trough forms. Seas around 2 ft today with perhaps a slight uptick in seas away from shore overnight as the southeast flow develops. Northeast wind wave will be dominant today and tonight with a weak southeast swell also present.

Tuesday through Friday...High pressure centered to our north will push further offshore ahead of a frontal system, the warm front pushing in from the south Tuesday night. SW winds will increase into Wednesday reaching 15-20 kts. The cold front will move through into Thursday morning with brief Small Craft Advisory conditions possible due to ~25 kt gusts. A strong PG will linger into Friday with offshore winds ~15-20 kts. Waves will be ~2-4 ft through the period.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.