textproduct: NWS Wilmington
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
WHAT HAS CHANGED
No changes have been made to forecast thinking. Update for 18Z aviation discussion.
KEY MESSAGES
1) Shower and thunderstorm chances will shift from the SC Lowcountry this afternoon back into northeastern South Carolina and southeastern North Carolina into Monday.
2) Drier weather is expected from Tuesday through Thursday, but with increasing temperatures and potential for the heat index to exceed 105 degrees.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...Mid level ridging remains the dominant feature across the area this afternoon. Small chances for convection southern areas this afternoon but coverage should be limited. Height falls with an approaching front/trough/sea breeze increase chances across all areas Monday.
KEY MESSAGE 2...Moisture remains limited in the prevailing northwest flow allowing heat index values to increase to possible headline criteria. This is predicated on a mostly dry forecast which is low confidence this time of year, especially several days in a row. Shorter daylight hours make it more difficult for excessive heat as does the ever present complication of dry air mixing down each day.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Expect mainly VFR conditions through the period outside isolated showers and storms. Highest probability looks to be FLO where a PROB30 group was included in the terminal. ST/FG potential overnight is too low for inclusion in the forecast attm but inland areas would be the focus again if it happens.
Extended Forecast...Brief MVFR/IFR conditions are possible in scattered showers and thunderstorms Monday. Coverage appears it may be lower Tuesday through and Thursday. Late night/early morning low stratus ceilings are possible each day, especially at KFLO and KLBT.
MARINE
Bermuda high pressure offshore should remain the dominant weather maker for us over the next five days. The center of the high is currently between Bermuda and Cape Fear. The high should sink south next week, leading to winds veering more westerly and increasing in speed. We also should experience a larger number of showers and thunderstorms today and especially Monday. Not really seeing anything in the winds or seas that come close to any headlines.
ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.
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