textproduct: NWS Wilmington

WHAT HAS CHANGED

All sections updated, though no major changes to the previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1) Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.

2) Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1... Low to moderate rain chances continue over the next several days.

Similar to the last couple nights, another round of showers and isolated storms is expected to develop this morning and affect coastal areas esp. in SC. After morning cloud cover thins out, a separate area of showers and storms is expected to develop inland from the coast during the afternoon as the air heats up. Very heavy rain remains the primary concern as precipitable water values around 2-2.2" continue to stream across the area. Although southerly low- to mid-level flow of 10-20 kts should keep most of the showers and storms moving, if an outflow boundary happens to push out of a storm towards the south, isolated flash flooding may occur due to heavy rain persisting over the same area.

From Friday onward, the upper disturbance that has remained in place over the last few days should be a shadow of its former self with a remnant weakness in the height field between the large upper high centered near the Four Corners and another near Bermuda. This weakness in the height field on the periphery of the offshore high will result in a more typical summertime pattern with isolated to scattered pop-up showers and storms from Friday through Sunday. With that said, considerable dry air is depicted in forecast soundings on Friday and Saturday before another plume of moisture lifts northward on Sunday. Thus, expect activity to be more spotty and short-lived on Friday and Saturday with somewhat greater coverage on Sunday.

Although the greater moisture remains in place into next week, the ridge is expected to build westward, introducing some subsidence into the picture, likely keeping coverage in the typical summertime isolated to widely scattered realm.

KEY MESSAGE 2... Increasing heat and humidity is expected next week which could result in afternoon heat indices nearing 105F.

As ridging over the Atlantic builds westward in tandem with a persistent moisture plume, expect both temperatures and dew points to rise above normal. With highs reaching the mid 90s and dew points in the low-mid 70s, afternoon heat index may potentially reach 105F in some areas every day starting Sunday or Monday.

AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

MVFR to at times IFR conditions have indeed developed inland and used prevailing for an hour or two to address. Some activity may develop along the coast this morning or drift in from offshore but at least at this point doesn't seem as bullish as advertised. Outside of this a standard summer day is shaping up and continued to advertise PROB 30 areas for later convection.

Extended Forecast... Transient restrictions are possible in showers and storms mainly during the afternoon each day through the period. The moist low-level airmass will also support a greater potential for morning fog or stratus each day.

MARINE

Sub-SCA conditions continue through at least early next week with winds averaging out of the south no higher than 10-15 kt, as Bermuda high pressure is locked in place off to the east. Low to moderate chances of showers and storms remain in place every day. A persistent 7-8 second SE swell will be the primary contributor to the wave spectrum.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...None.