textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances through this evening, and again off- and-on Thursday night through early next week.

- Warming trend through late week, with a cool down this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

PRECIPITATION:

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...Early this morning, we are watching a couple strong to marginally severe thunderstorm complexes moving south-southeast across southern NE, northeast KS, and northwest MO. Given the strong cold pool, thinking this activity will gradually propagate south into the forecast area early to mid this morning. With a weakening low-level jet, activity should tend to weaken with southward extent, which is already being observed on radar with outflow outrunning the convection. Consequently, thinking this strongest activity will be capable of 40-50 mph winds and locally heavy rain.

For this afternoon through early evening, spotty thunderstorm development is expected in vicinity of the remnant outflow boundary and MCV, which *should* be somewhere generally along/south of Highway 54. Strong instability in concert with around 20 kts of effective deep layer shear and decent DCAPE values should support an isolated severe thunderstorm threat, with the strongest activity capable of downburst winds, dime size hail, and heavy rainfall. This activity should exit south of the forecast area by early to mid- evening.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...After a relatively quiet Wednesday-Thursday, off-and-on thunderstorm chances return to the region, as a cold front moves through and then stalls near the KS/OK border. Weak perturbations in the upper flow continue into next week, with an associated threat for spotty thunderstorm chances. As has been the case the past several days, strong instability in concert with marginal deep layer shear should produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms each episode, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

A building upper ridge will support warming temperatures this week, reaching the mid-upper 90s by late week. Thereafter, a cold front will support a cool down this weekend back into the 80s to near 90 degrees. With deterministic and ensemble consensus keeping the upper ridge at bay, along with periodic thunderstorm chances, there is a low chance for a prolonged period of intense above average summer heat the next 7-10 days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025

Currently monitoring a complex of thunderstorms across southeastern Nebraska. Model guidance suggests this activity will continue to dive southward bringing a broken line of thunderstorms to the north-central TAF sites generally after 09Z. Main concerns with this activity will be gusty winds and briefly heavy rain. Uncertainty remains with how far south this line holds together. Added in VCTS for south-central and southeastern KS sites, but gusty winds and low vis may need to be added in later if the complex can maintain that far south.

Significant uncertainty then remains for the afternoon/evening period as the remnant outflow boundary from this morning's activity will dictate placement and intensity of potential PM storms.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.