textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms late this afternoon into early evening across mainly southern KS with additional storms coming out of northwest KS tonight.

- Another round of storms coming off of the High Plains for Mon night into Tuesday morning.

- Seasonal temperatures continue with above normal highs expected for Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy moving into the Southern Great Lakes/Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, another upper impulse is sliding across the Northern Plains. Weak cold front extends from Central MO to near KICT and into southwest KS.

Storms are expected to continue to develop along the front this afternoon and sag south into the early evening, mainly affecting southern and southeast KS. Damaging downburst winds, small hail and pockets of heavy rain will continue to be the main threats. Additional convection is expected to develop over southwest Nebraska/NW KS early this evening and slide east overnight. Not sure how far east storms will make it as there is decent model consensus that they start to wane as they approach the western flank of our forecast area. So for now will run with the highest pops west of I-135 tonight. Confidence is low with regards to convection during the day Mon. Moisture isn't going anywhere, so we will remain very unstable with minimal capping. Feel the best chance for daytime storms would be for them do develop along some remnant outflow or just east of a remnant MCV from storms tonight. With low confidence, will not hit pops too hard. Better storm chances will arrive Mon night as a weak upper impulse lifts out of Central Great Basin, across the Central Rockies and out across the Central Plains by late Mon afternoon. Storms should first develop over central/southern Nebraska early Mon evening, and race south and southeast overnight, affecting most of our area after 06z Tue. Damaging downburst winds and hail up to nickel size look to be the main threats with this complex of storms Mon night.

We may see a few storms linger Tuesday morning, especially across eastern KS. However after Tue, we should see an overall decrease in storm chances through Thu, as upper ridging builds to our southwest. Storm chances will then ramp back-up starting Thu night into Fri as a series of impulses track across the Central Plains, with a more potent shortwave forecast to slide across the Northern Plains Fri, and should push a front down into our area.

Prior to Thursday, temps look fairly seasonal for this time of year, with a slight bump in highs for Thu with mid and upper 90s a good bet. There is a good chance we will see cooler highs for Fri and especially Sat as the front pushes down into our area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated showers and thunderstorms are beginning to develop across eastern Kansas and this activity is expected to expand across south central Kansas this afternoon. CNU and ICT are the two most likely locations to see thunderstorm impacts this afternoon and early evening hence tempo groups have been introduced at both sites. Any thunderstorm that develops will have the potential to produce gusty and erratic winds up to 60 mph, small hail, and frequent lightning. These thunderstorms should come to an end shortly after sunset. A second round of thunderstorms is expected to move out of northwest Kansas this evening and overnight but will be decaying as it moves into central Kansas. Exactly when these storms dissipate remains uncertain so PROB30 groups remain at RSL and GBD. Outside of thunderstorms, conditions will be VFR with relatively light winds however outflow boundaries may lead to breezier conditions at times.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.