textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms possible tonight mainly in central KS.

- Hot and humid conditions with mostly dry weather are expected into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Currently, there is a surface low extending from eastern CO to western SD with a warm front draping down from eastern NE to central MO. In our area, southerly flow at the surface persists resulting in dewpoints in the mid 70s and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. This evening, instability will increase as surface heating amplifies and moisture continues to build. As we move into the overnight hours, this axis of instability will shift north with the better instability staying north and east of our area. As the LLJ increases tonight, an axis of convergence will set up in northern Kansas. Given the limited forcing, low chances of showers and storms will remain in central KS. Low temperatures will drop to the low to mid 70s.

On Saturday, a frontal boundary will move towards the KS/NE border keeping southerly flow at the surface in our area. High temperatures are expected to rise into the mid to upper 90s with areas in central Kansas around 100. Low-level upslope flow in eastern CO will help initiate storms Saturday afternoon to evening with the expectation of eastward propagation. Given decent instability is expected in northern Kansas, it is possible that a storm may reach central KS. However, strong inhibition will limit chances with the potential that storms will diminish as they move into the area.

With the mid-level ridge slightly amplifying on Sunday as it shifts towards the Mississippi Valley, thickness will continue to increase. High temperatures on Sunday will be similar to Saturday with highs in the upper 90s to the lower 100s. On Sunday night, low precipitation chances will be possible in central KS as an embedded weak ripple is expected to ride the upper/mid-level ridge combined with an increasing LLJ.

Monday-Friday... Starting early next week, model consensus supports the upper-level ridge amplifying more, allowing heights to continue rising. With southerly flow persisting, hot and humid conditions are expected daily. Overnight lows are expected to stay warm with most areas in the mid to upper 70s. Upper-level flow will steer some shortwave troughs into the Central High Plains making low precipitation chances possible through this period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Jul 18 2025

Only a few isolated showers remain early this afternoon across southeast Kansas however these will remain east of CNU. VFR conditions have returned to all terminals and are expected to remain so through the remainder of this TAF period. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms may try to develop across central Kansas late this afternoon and evening however confidence on a direct impact at any one site remains too low to include a mention in the TAF at this time. Winds approximately 1000 ft above ground will ramp up late tonight leading to a period of LLWS at most terminals through tomorrow morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning from 2 PM Saturday to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.