textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather likely to impact much of the area today along with heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas

- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected on Sunday and Monday

- Another round of showers and storms could affect the region on Tuesday/Tuesday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Hot temperatures and high humidity will create dangerous heat indices over portions of southern Kansas, as a result we hoisted a heat advisory for this afternoon. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level wave moving southeast across Montana early this morning. This system will move across South Dakota and amplify the upper level jet/mid-level winds over Nebraska into northeast Kansas and resultant southward push on surface cold front into Kansas. Storms are expected to initiate along the cold front later this afternoon over central Kansas(4pm- 5pm) with a very unstable airmass in place across the region. Storms should quickly become severe and capable of producing very large hail and damaging winds. There is a window early on for a few tornadoes with semi-discrete cells, however activity is expect to grow upscale quickly then transition into a forward propagating MCS. Microburst composite values for today's environment are pushing into the extreme category. As a result, damaging to significant winds of 70 to 80mph are likely, mainly impacting locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. A round of heavy rain with torrential downpours is also likely with precipitable water values over 2 inches. Flood watch over southeast Kansas remains on track for this potential threat. The activity will gradually shift southeast of Kansas later tonight.

Surface high pressure will build over the area for Sunday and Monday with dry weather and cooler than normal temperatures expected. Temperatures will warm on Tuesday along with a strong jet stream migrating through northwest flow regime aloft over the central plains. This will cause south winds to increase and usher richer low level moisture back northward from Oklahoma into Kansas. Models have convection developing over central/eastern Kansas for Tuesday afternoon/night. Given shear/instability combination strong to severe storms are possible this period. Depending on the timing of the surface cold front, Wednesday is shaping up to be the hottest day of the week with premium downslope flow ahead of the cold front. This will boost temperatures into the 100s across central/south central Kansas. Another round of showers/storms will be possible over mainly eastern Kansas for Wednesday as hot capping temperatures aloft prohibit convection from expanding too far west. Cooler temperatures with dry weather look to prevail for Thursday-Friday across the region.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1237 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Aviation concerns will be storms over the next several hours and then again later this afternoon and evening.

Cluster of storms that developed over far southwest KS is approaching south central KS. In addition, a few storms have developed over southeast KS in response to increasing low level jet. Storms are expected to affect southern KS(KICT-KHUT-KCNU) this morning with a break expected for the late morning through much of the afternoon hours. Then a strong cold front is expected to surge across the forecast area, with storms likely developing along it. It will move through KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 22z-00z time frame and KICT-KHUT-KCNU in the 23-02z range. Severe storms will be likely with any of this activity, with KICT and especially KCNU having the best chance to experience severe storms.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100. Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-091>093.