textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for some elevated severe storms today and tonight with large hail being the main hazard

- Sunday's setup for severe weather is more uncertain due to several prohibiting factors that must be overcome

- Severe weather chances will be low next week with near normal temperatures and dry weather for Monday-Wednesday followed by possible rain chances returning on Thursday into Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Current early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level short wave near the 4 corners area tracking eastward. This system will eject from the Rockies into western Kansas this morning with mid-level warm advection already generating elevated showers/storms over central Nebraska. Expecting more elevated storms to develop over north central Kansas this morning with activity gradually increasing over central Kansas from late morning into the afternoon. Low clouds could linger longer over the area today which would reduce surface destabilization, however elevated environment is still supportive of severe weather. The combination of favorable directional 700-500mb wind shear, steep mid-level lapse rates, and adequate elevated instability would favor a few storms capable of producing hail up to golf ball size. Damaging winds could become a risk later this evening especially if low level jet can materialize over Kansas causing storms to congeal and move southeast. It's more likely that convection developing over Oklahoma intercepts this low level jet focus which could reduce that damaging wind potential. Elevated hail seems like the more likely hazard today with the activity shifting east of Kansas by around midnight.

Despite favorable wind shear kinematics, Sunday's setup has several issues to overcome before it becomes a more favorable environment for severe weather to affect central/southern Kansas. If a big complex of storms does develop over Oklahoma tonight and dive southeast this could potentially reduce the instability recovery for Kansas. The things that look more detrimental; are models showing a later arrival timing of upper level wave, warming mid-level temperatures throughout the day/evening across the region(advancing elevated mixed layer), and finally numerous model soundings continue to show deep low- level saturation beneath the elevated mix layer which favors a prolonged period of drizzle well into the afternoon hours(MLCIN values would become very unfavorable for surface based convection). Therefore, the most likely scenario at this time for Sunday is for storm initiation to begin in western Kansas later in the day with-in upslope moisture flow/triple point location and convergence along the dry line. This activity would then travel northeast and could clip parts of central Kansas at night aided by increasing low level jet/moisture transport focus. The low level jets focus looks to quickly shift north of central Kansas as the night goes on. Stay tuned for additional updates.

Monday-Friday

Models in good agreement with the richer low-level Gulf moisture remaining shoved well south of Kansas throughout this period along with near normal temperatures. As a result, confidence is high that severe weather chances will remain low next week across the region. On Monday, the upper level wave will shift east into the upper Mississippi valley region with cooler/drier air overspreading Kansas in the wake of this system. Tuesday-Wednesday will see near normal temperatures and a continuation of dry conditions as zonal flow aloft gives way to slight upper ridging. There is a model signal for some elevated moisture/lift trying to spark off elevated showers and possible weak thunderstorms for late Wednesday night into Friday morning.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Low clouds in MVFR/IFR will spread northward this morning across south central and central Kansas. The low clouds will be slow to erode but cigs should gradually rise during the afternoon hours. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sag slowly southward across central Kansas later this afternoon with scattered storms developing over the area. A few of the storms could reach severe levels as they develop and track southeast across the region. Due to the more scattered nature of storm coverage, we went with PROB30 for storm chances across the region. The front will cause winds to switch around to the north and bring in another round of low clouds tonight behind the frontal passage.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.