textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front to move through Saturday along with a chance at some light rain changing to snow over central KS. Strong north winds likely behind the front on Saturday and Saturday evening.

- Single digit wind chills Saturday night into Sunday morning.

- Confidence is increasing in the potential for measurable snowfall on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low rotating across the Eastern Great Lakes region with another upper impulse approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure extends through the Plains.

Upper impulse approaching the Pacific Northwest will continue tracking southeast tonight into Fri morning and by early Fri evening will be moving into the Central Rockies. Strong low level warm advection ahead of the wave will result in rapidly increasing 850- 700mb moisture transport which will ramp-up rain chances, especially across southeast KS by early Fri evening. By 12z Sat, surface low will be located over northwest OK with a strong cold front extending from far northeast KS through western KS.

Through early Sat morning, all snow chances will be confined to areas north and northeast of the forecast area, mainly across eastern Nebraska into IA and northern MO. Surface low will quickly tack east and by 18z Sat will be centered over western MO. The GFS has the low further south compared to the NAM and other short term models. However, the differences in the low placement shouldn't have too much of an affect on the forecast. As colder air spills south Sat, some of the precip across northern KS may briefly change over to snow, or a rain-snow mix. The most likely time frame for central KS to see some snow would be in the 12z-15z range, before the better precip chances push northeast. Confidence remains high that we are not looking for any travel impacts due to snow accumulation. The only impact that appears possible would be reduced visibility along I-70 Sat morning due to the light snow combined with strong north winds.

Most noticeable impact this system will bring will likely be the rapid change in much colder air. Not only will much colder air be spilling south on Sat, strong north winds will produce wind chills in the single digits Sat night across the entire area. Strong surface high will be over the area on Sunday with highs still looking to be around 20 degrees below normal as they struggle to make it above freezing.

Attention will then turn to another shortwave impulse that will be digging across the Central Great Basin on Sun and then into the Southern Rockies by Mon morning. It is starting to look like this system will have a better chance to bring measurable snowfall to the area compared to the one on Sat. This is mainly because a very cold airmass will remain be in place, making any precip that falls all snow. Last few runs of both the ECMWF and GFS have been consistent in showing an area of mid level frontogenesis along with the bulk of the lift occurring in the dendritic zone. At this time it looks like most of the snow would fall in the 12z Mon to 21z Mon time frame.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure will slowly slide east tonight into Fri as an upper wave approaches from the northwest. This will allow light winds to come around to the north and eventually east later tonight. By late Fri morning, winds will be out of the southeast and will be on the increase, with gusts around 20kts likely. High and mid clouds will also be on the increase late tonight into Fri, but VFR conditions are forecast to remain through 18z Fri.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.