textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A stray thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening across central KS

- Shower and thunderstorms chances are forecast to increase Tuesday afternoon with periodic rounds of showers and storms lingering through next weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 740 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

We removed isolated chances of showers/storms for central Kansas this evening. The low levels were beginning to stabilize with loss of daytime heating.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As of 1 PM Sunday afternoon, quasi-zonal midlevel flow present across the central and northern Plains. An area of surface high pressure encompasses much of eastern KS into the MS Valley. This area of high pressure was resulting in sunny skies and light winds across much of the forecast area. A lee surface trough was gradually deepening across the central and northern high Plains. This continues to gradually tighten the surface pressure gradient across portions of central and western KS where southerly winds are gusting near 20 mph. The actual surface trough axis is positioned from south- central SD through northwest KS. Weak convergence along the trough axis this afternoon may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. With this convection being diurnally driven, it's unlikely any convection reaches Russell or Barton counties this afternoon or evening (10-15% chance for rain). Transitioning into tonight, the aforementioned surface high pressure area will remain across portions of south-central and southeast KS. Small dew point depressions, light winds, and mostly clear skies may result in patchy fog formations Monday morning.

A similar thunderstorm setup is expected Monday afternoon and evening with diurnally driven convection possible along the trough axis across western KS. The lack of large scale forcing for ascent to propagate convection eastward should keep convection across western KS. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as a weak perturbation propagates north from the ArkLaTex region into eastern KS and western MO. PW values are forecast to increase to 1.5- 1.75" across eastern KS. Weak midlevel lapse rates of 5.5-6 C/km will limit instability values to 500-1000 J/kg. Midlevel winds remain quite weak at 20 kt or less, mitigating any threat for severe storms. This tropical- like airmass will remain across the area through the remainder of the week. Weak midlevel perturbations are progged by GFS/ECMWF to slowly propagate across the region daily (Wednesday through at least Saturday) with the strongest shortwave trough Thursday into Friday. This should support daily rain chances will the potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. Midlevel ridging will amplify across southwest US by Sunday with the midlevel flow becoming northwest across the central Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions will generally prevail over the next 24 hours; however, a brief period of MVFR visibilities may occur across southeast Kansas Monday morning. After sunrise, any fog that has developed should mix out fairly quickly. Surface winds across central and south-central Kansas should remain out of the south and southeast at around 10 to 20 knots throughout the TAF period. Meanwhile, winds across southeast Kansas will generally remain light and variable.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.