textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning storms generally east of I-135 with some strong to marginally severe storms possible.

- Excessive heat quickly builds back in starting Saturday and lasting through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Storms developed prior to midnight over the Flint Hills in an area of increasing 850-700mb theta-e advection. Storms look to be rooted somewhere in the 800-700mb ranged which would give them about 2,000J/kg of CAPE to work with and around 30-35kts of effective shear. So some hail in the dime to quarter size and heavy rain look to be the main threats this morning. Showers/storms will linger through at least 15z over the Flint Hills/se KS and will start to move out of the forecast area in the 15-16z time frame. Even with a boundary over southern KS this afternoon, once storms push south, no additional convection is anticipated for the remainder of the day.

As shortwave trough tracks from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region, the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region will start to slowly build east to start the weekend. This will allow a warming trend to commence as much warmer 850mb temps start to creep into the forecast area. While a few locations west of I-135 will likely hit 100 on Sat, most of the area is expected to hit the century mark on Sun. Not much is expected to change through Tue, as the upper ridge remains from the Southern Plains through the Central Great Basin. This will continue to promote highs in the 100-105 range for much of the forecast area. If there's any positive with this stretch of extreme heat, it's that dewpoints are expected to generally be in the upper 50s and low 60s when our max temps occur. This will keep the heat indices from getting too out of control.

There is decent model agreement that we will get back into more of a northwest flow regime for Wed into Thu as a series of upper impulses track from MB/SK and down into the Great Lakes region. This will allow a boundary to sink down into the Plains, increasing storm chances and bringing some relief from the extreme heat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Aviation concern will remain storms this morning.

Storms that developed several hours ago over the Flint Hills have continued to very slowly track southeast and also back build to the west. Current thinking is that KICT will continue with storm chances for another hour or two, while KCNU will maintain storms for at least through 16z. Large complex of storms has also created a wake low which has brought some gusty east winds to locations along and west of I-135, with some gusts around 30kts. These gusty winds are expected to last a few more hours. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are anticipated for today and tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.