textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather chances will mainly affect south central and southeast Kansas after 5PM, and look to diminish around midnight or 1AM

- Cooler and windy on Wednesday followed by even stronger winds on Thursday which looks to elevate the fire danger risk to critical levels

- A noticeable cool down could be in store for Kansas on Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

As of 2 pm, the cold front was located along a line from just south of Dodge City to near St. Joseph, Missouri. This front will continue to slowly slide south and east this afternoon and evening. Ahead of the front dewpoints have remained in the upper 50s across south central Kansas to the mid 60s across southeast Kansas. An upper- level low will be moving across northern Mexico and weakening this afternoon. Ahead of this wave, a strong capping inversion will be in place across the forecast area which will prevent discrete convection from developing. However, as upper-level lift begins to strengthen over the forecast this evening and especially overnight, thunderstorm development will become likely along the front especially as convergence increases with the strengthening low-level jet after 7 pm. MUCAPE around 2,000 J/kg will be present along with around 45 kts of effective bulk shear which will support strong to severe storms. However, with the strength of forcing, clusters of storms will be the primary storm mode which would support the potential for large hail and damaging winds south of the front, and some large hail potential just north of the front as storms develop and then shift to the northeast. While storm mode would tend to decrease the tornado threat, low-level shear is maximized across southeast Kansas which is where a spinup may be possible especially if any storm can become discrete, but the overall threat of a tornado is low. Thunderstorms will also be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall especially where several rounds of storms impact a community across southeast Kansas.

Behind the front, northerly winds will increase overnight ushering in a cooler airmass with low temperatures in the mid 30s across central Kansas to the the mid 40s across southeast Kansas where the front won't move through until sunrise on Wednesday. Winds will remain breezy on Wednesday out of the north and with limited to no rainfall across central Kansas very high fire danger will be possible. Surface high pressure will settle into the region Wednesday night which will relax winds and drop temperatures into the upper 20s to lower 30s by Thursday morning. The high pressure will shift to the southeast Thursday morning while a surface low moves into North Dakota this will tighten a pressure gradient over Kansas with breezy to windy southerly winds expected across central Kansas. This will lead to another day of very high to extreme fire weather concerns across central and south central Kansas. That low will send another weak cold front through the region on Friday although it won't do much to our area besides weaken winds. Saturday will be even warmer as southerly winds return to the region boosting temperatures into the mid to upper 70s ahead of a stronger cold front that will move into the area late Saturday night into Sunday morning. This front will bring much colder air to the region and will also bring some moisture with it. Currently the precipitation should be all rain as the coldest air will lag behind the front quite a bit so precipitation should come to an end before temperatures drop below freezing. Low temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning will drop into the upper teens and lower 20s just to remind us it isn't completely Spring yet. Northwest flow aloft will continue over the area through early next week which will allow temperatures to slowly moderate with dry conditions persisting.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A combination of VFR and MVFR conditions is expected through the early portions of the period, with widespread VFR anticipated to prevail after mid-morning.

A cold front currently pushing southward through central KS will continue into the south central and southeast portions of the state throught the early morning hours. Point soundings indicate the potential for MVFR ceilings particularly at CNU that may extend west to briefly impact ICT/HUT. These are expected to lift around sunrise and give way to VFR ceilings for the remainder of the period.

Winds following the aforementioned front will be strong, with sustained speeds above 15 kts at all sites and gusts to near 30 kts particularly during the afternoon hours. These will subside by sunset with speeds forecast below 10 kts by evening.

Finally, short-term models highlight modest elevated instability following in the wake of this front that may allow for the development of a handful of isolated thunderstorms. For now, the region of interest lies primarily along and east of I-135 through mid morning, though with coverage a bit uncertain at this time, decided to not mention at any sites for this cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Very high fire danger will continue until around 5 pm across southeast Kansas today before humidity values begin to increase. Fire weather concerns will shift to central and perhaps portions of south central Kansas (where no appreciable rainfall is observed tonight) on Wednesday with strong gusty north winds. Thursday will be yet another day of fire weather concerns when the combination of very strong southwest winds, warmer temperatures, and lower relative humidity supports Very High to Extreme fire danger levels especially across central and south central Kansas. As a result, a fire weather watch may be needed for this period across primarily central Kansas. Of note...some high clouds are forecast across the region during the afternoon hours which could hinder our ability to detect grassland wildfires from satellite.

CLIMATE

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record Highs for today... Site Record High Year Tdy's Forecast High ICT 85 1989 84 CNU 85 1967 84

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.