textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm-up starting Friday through early next week with cooler temperatures returning mid next week.

- Storm chances are possible Friday night, continuing into Saturday morning with an additional chance possible Saturday afternoon.

- Periodic storm chances will be possible Saturday night through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains with an additional shortwave over the Great Lakes. Weak upper ridging is over the southeastern US as well as the southwestern US. Showers and storms have dissipated over our area with activity still ongoing farther south in Oklahoma as weak 700 mb WAA continues. Cooler temperatures are being observed given the residual cloud cover over much of eastern KS and the rainfall from this morning. High temperatures range from the 70s in southeast KS to the mid 80s in central KS. As we move into tonight, cloud cover will continue to decrease with light easterly/southeasterly winds. Given the moisture from rainfall, patchy fog looks likely to develop late tonight through Friday morning especially for areas along and east of the Kansas Turnpike.

A warm-up will start again on Friday as high temperatures are forecast to return to the upper 80s to the lower 90s. Mostly dry conditions are expected during the day Friday before chances for showers and storms will start to increase again towards late Friday night mainly towards the overnight hours. A LLJ is progged to increase across western KS with the nose of the jet towards northern KS. A cold front will start to push south through Nebraska late Friday night with sufficient instability, potentially allowing storms to develop along it as it makes its way to southern Nebraska. These storms are anticipated to move south into Kansas, bringing another potential round of rain to our area. However, there is uncertainty as the ECMWF, GFS, and HRRR are the only solutions that support this whereas other guidance keeps Nebraska and Kansas dry Friday night through Saturday morning. If storms do develop, severe weather appears possible given around 40 kts of effective shear is progged. Trends with this activity will continue to be monitored.

For Saturday, the cold front is expected to stall out across northern KS into portions of central KS. Just north of the boundary, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with temperatures south of the boundary in the lower 90s. By late afternoon, diurnal heating will lead to plenty of instability developing, making another chance for storms possible. Given the steep low-level lapse rates, and DCAPE values over 1300 J/kg, damaging wind gusts would be the primary concern with this activity, though large hail cannot be ruled out given steep mid-level lapse rates and 40 kts of effective shear. Chances for storms may linger into Saturday night and Sunday morning as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up. By Sunday afternoon, lee surface troughing will increase resulting in breezy southerly winds across the area. This will aid in high temperatures returning to the low to mid 90s on Sunday afternoon. Mostly dry conditions are forecast for Sunday night into Monday morning as rain chances are progged to stay north of the area.

For Monday and beyond, an upper trough over the northwestern US will propagate northeast towards the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon. As this trough continues to slide across the Northern Plains, it will push a cold front south into Nebraska by Monday afternoon. Lee troughing will remain in place across Kansas with breezy southerly winds anticipated. Another hot day is in store for Monday as highs once again rise into the mid 90s. This cold front will continue to push south, likely allowing showers and storms to develop along it, increasing chances for Monday night into Tuesday. By late Tuesday afternoon, the front will likely make it to southern Kansas. This will result in highs ranging from the 70s in northern Kansas to the 90s in far southern Kansas. Following this front, highs are forecast to return to the 70s and 80s for Wednesday and Thursday. Periodic rain chances are possible for beyond Tuesday as guidance suggests additional shortwaves to slide across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Main aviation concern will be fog potential late tonight into Fri morning.

Showers and storms have finally pushed southeast of the forecast area with cigs also starting to improve. IFR levels have lifted at all sites with most locations seeing VFR conditions. There is a chance that some fog will develop after 09z, primarily for locations along and east of I-135. For now ran with some 2-5sm at KCNU-KICT-KSLN to get the ball rolling. However, if models remain consistent, confidence is high that vis will be lowered with later forecasts, especially at KCNU.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.