textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and evening, mainly along and west-northwest of the KS Turnpike. If storms are able to develop, severe weather is likely.

- Severe weather potential continues Monday afternoon and evening with all severe hazards possible, although there remains some uncertainty on how things will evolve.

- Hot and windy today and Monday, then cooling down Tuesday through Thursday.

- Elevated grassfire danger west of I-135 today and Monday.

- Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through Friday night, although widespread severe weather potential appears low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline will be the focus for isolated thunderstorm development late this afternoon and evening, mainly along and west-northwest of the the KS Turnpike. Despite warm temperatures aloft and associated capping concerns, thinking large scale upper forcing ahead of a shortwave approaching from the west in concert with convective temperatures being reached should support at least isolated development, with the highest chances across central and north-central KS where the dryline intersects a nearly stalled cold front.

If storms are able to form and sustain themselves, strong and fat instability combined with 35-40 kts of effective deep layer shear will support supercells capable of very large hail, with hefty downdraft CAPE supporting localized damaging winds. While a few landspout tornadoes are possible over mainly central and north- central KS given the slow-moving sharp boundary and hefty buoyancy, the overall supercell tornado threat looks lower given higher cloud bases. However, strengthening low-level shear may support an isolated tornado threat with any supercell able to last into the evening (i.e. 7-10pm).

MONDAY MID AFTERNOON--NIGHT...Thinking this period has the greatest potential for thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave gives the region a glancing blow to the northwest, and a strong dryline/cold front combo sharpen and approach from the west-northwest. 40-45 kts of effective deep layer shear combined with strong buoyancy supports the potential for supercells capable of all severe hazards (i.e. very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes).

However, there is still uncertainty on how this event will evolve. If the cold front overtakes the dryline too quickly, the potential for "higher-end" severe weather will likely be limited due to a more messy storm mode and deep layer shear oriented mostly parallel to the front. In contrast, if the slower solutions verify, the dryline will be in play for a longer period of time, supporting isolated discrete or semi-discrete supercells capable of all severe hazards, including tornadoes. This would especially be the case generally along and west of the Flint Hills Monday evening when low-level shear ramps up dramatically. Of note though, this scenario would only pan out if convective inhibition doesn't squash dryline storm initiation, and/or the cold front doesn't overtake the dryline too quickly, both of which are definitely a possibility. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details today and tonight.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY NIGHT...Periodic on-and-off shower/thunderstorm chances are possible mid to late week, as a handful of low-amplitude shortwaves traverse Mid-America. Limited buoyancy and deep layer shear should prevent widespread severe weather chances during this time.

WIND:

Today and Monday will feature strong/gusty south winds, as low pressure continues to deepen to the west. Sustained winds of 25-35 mph with gusts up to around 45 mph are likely. Will continue the inherited wind advisory from mid this morning into this evening. Subsequent shifts may need to consider a wind advisory for much of the forecast area on Monday.

TEMPERATURES:

Southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through Monday, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the 80s and 90s. Record high temperatures and record warm lows will be in jeopardy through Monday. A strong cold front looks to blast south across the region Monday night, supporting near to below average temperatures Tuesday through Thursday, with daytime highs in the 60s-70s and overnight lows in the 40s-50s. Deterministic and ensemble consensus shows a warming trend from late week through next weekend and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong and gusty south winds will prevail today, with gusts exceeding 35 kts at times.

Low VFR and MVFR ceilings may impact CNU from about mid-morning through early afternoon, as low-level moisture continues to increase. Additional MVFR ceilings are expected to develop areawide later this evening and overnight, with IFR possible over central and north-central Kansas.

Finally, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening, mainly for GBD-RSL-SLN, in vicinity of a cold front/dryline intersection. Lower chances exist for HUT and ICT. Large hail and damaging winds are the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Strong south winds, above normal temperatures, and low humidity will support very high grassfire danger for areas generally west of I-135 today, and again for portions of central Kansas on Monday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094-098.