textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will continue into early this evening for areas generally along and just east of I-135. Downburst winds, very high rainfall rates and small hail will be possible.

- After a break Friday through most of Saturday, shower and storm chances will return for Saturday evening through Sunday, especially for areas along and especially east of I-135.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures will move-in to the area for Tuesday and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

The initial upper impulse that lifted across western KS late last night is now situated over southeast Nebraska. However, regional 88d mosaic and vis satellite shows an MCV spinning just northwest of KRSL.

The most widespread storm activity is currently over northeast KS, which is closer to the upper support. Storms quickly developed further south around noon across south central KS. This is in an area of persistent 850mb moisture transport and is also in an area of high instability and minimal capping. Current thinking is that this activity further south should be diurnally driven and we are expecting it to continue for at least the next few hours. High rainfall rates, wet microburst winds and small hail will be the main threats. So once we get into the 8-9pm time frame, most of the activity will have dissipated over the Flint Hills.

Still looking for a lull in shower/storm activity for Fri with the forecast area between the departing impulse over the Mid Mississippi Valley and another one over northeast Mex. By early Sat afternoon, the upper circulation currently over northeast Mex will be located over West TX and will continue lifting northeast through Sat night. This impulse looks to be far enough south to limit shower/storm chances through most of Sat with precip increasing across southern KS Sat evening with fairly widespread showers/storms expected for late Sat night through Sun morning for areas along and especially east of I-135. Just like last few days, main threat will be heavy rain and potential flooding along with wet microburst winds.

Bulk of the precip is expected to push east of the forecast area for Sun night into Mon. To start the work week we are expecting deep upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest into Central CA and upper ridging from the Southern Plains into the Gulf Coast region. The latest ECMWF tries to track an upper perturbation across northern KS on Mon while the GFS keeps this feature much further north and keeps the entire area dry for Mon and Tue. As the upper trough continues to dig across the western CONUS, there is high confidence that very warm temps will overspread the Plains with highs approaching 100 for both Tue and Wed.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Showers and more isolated storms continue to diminish and are expected to vanish by 01-02Z at the latest. Breezy southerly winds will persist tonight into tomorrow with 25 knot gusts impacting most areas. Some MVFR stratus is expected to impact areas mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike during the predawn hours impacting the KCNU terminal before mixing out around 16Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.