textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog this morning should gradually mix out throughout the day.

- Strong to severe storms possible late this evening into early Friday morning. Ping pong ball size hail and wind gusts around 55-65 mph are the main concerns

- Another round of strong to severe storms may develop across the area late Friday afternoon and last into Friday night. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible.

- A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend, but storm chances look to return on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...

Early this morning, a sharp shortwave trough is exiting eastward out of the central plains, and at the surface, a weak ridge is sliding across the forecast area. Light southerly winds on the back side of this surface ridge are supporting patchy to areas of dense fog this morning as moisture is pulled northward into a region of cooler temperatures. This is mainly occurring across central Kansas; however, portions of south-central and southeast Kansas may intermittently see periods of dense fog this morning. As mentioned previously, with southerly flow returning, ample moisture will be pulled northward throughout the day likely keeping thick low cloud cover in place today. This should keep temperatures in check, and most of the area will struggle to see afternoon highs in the low 60s.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

Late this afternoon, a region of mid-level WAA and moisture transport will nose into southern Kansas, and this may provide just enough lift for a few spotty showers and isolated storms. Some CAMs are hinting at the potential for isolated convection developing across the area late this afternoon and evening; however, subtle capping and the lack of deep synoptic lift will likely keep storm development at bay in this time period. With that being said, much better synoptic lift will be in place across the TX/OK Panhandles late this afternoon underneath a region of upper level diffluence ahead of the main shortwave trough. This should be more than enough to trigger scattered storms across the southern High Plains that will progress northeastward into northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas by late tonight into early Friday morning. With the persistent return of moisture to the region, largely being aided by a strong LLJ, ample elevated instability (~2000 J/kg) will be in place across southern Kansas. Additionally, effective shear will be around 30-35 knots overnight. Storms will likely arrive in a cluster or line which will put a bit of limit on the hail threat; however, damaging straight line winds around 55 to 65 mph will be possible as these storms push across southern Kansas. By Friday morning, much of this activity will have progressed east of the area leaving enough time for the atmosphere to recover for the next round of storms.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

In the wake of Friday morning's storms, continued southerly flow will aid in atmospheric recovery across the area. However, there are a number of caveats that are becoming more apparent for Friday evening's severe potential. First, a thick layer of low stratus will make diurnal surface heating quite difficult leading to poor low-level lapse rates. Also, a cold front is likely to overtake the developing dryline, and guidance has trended faster with the arrival of the cold front across the area. While much of the area will sit underneath upper-level diffluence from the right entrance region of the jet max, there are some questions about if this will be enough for storms to develop off of the dryline before the cold front sweeps through. Should a discrete storm or two develop off of the dryline late Friday afternoon, all modes of severe weather would be on the table including very large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes. However, the more likely outcome is that CI holds off until the cold front pushes into the rich moisture which would favor a more linear storm mode later Friday evening into the nighttime hours. While a significant hail threat would be possible with initial convective development in this scenario, the threat would quickly diminish as storms congeal into a line. Also, the tornado threat would likely diminish with a linear storm mode leading the main concern being the potential for damaging straight line winds. The cold front is forecast to be through the forecast area by late Friday night, and storm chances will come to an end as a result.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend. However, mid to long range guidance suggests another round of active weather is increasingly likely towards the beginning of next week. The most likely day for scattered thunderstorms will be on Tuesday. It's still bit far out, but guidance suggests another chance of strong to severe storms potentially impacting the area Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. With a ton of details still left to work out, be sure to check back for updates to the forecast. Storm chances aside, the beginning of next week looks like it will get off to a warm start with afternoon temps potential getting up into the 70s both Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1145 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread IFR ceilings remain over all of the area late this morning and will likely linger into the evening and overnight hours. We could see a few breaks in the clouds in parts of central Kansas before ceilings trend lower again this evening. Clusters of storms are expected to overspread much of the area late this evening and tonight with the highest probabilities in south central and southeast Kansas. Some of the storms could become severe with large hail and damaging winds. In addition, a developing LLJ will bring low level wind shear to much of the region from mid evening through early on Friday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon will result in very high grassland fire danger across central KS, then again on Friday afternoon across the forecast area. However, rainfall is expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

Very high grassland fire danger may return to the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.