textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning, with increasing probabilities Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning across much of the area.

- Marginally severe storms and localized flooding are possible on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

- This weeks warmup will be followed by much cooler air arriving on Sunday into early next week with additional chances for showers and storms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms have already developed within the sfc trough axis across western KS. Some of this activity could brush parts of our central KS counties through the evening hours although the bulk of the activity is expected to remain north and west of our area of concern. A shortwave trough racing across the Northern Plains will drive a cold front south into the area late tonight. This frontal boundary is progged to move south and east across the area on Tuesday. That will result in another hot day for areas ahead of the front which includes much of southern and southeast KS where highs in the upper 90s/around 100 once again. Probabilities for showers and thunderstorms will increase along and behind the front on Tuesday afternoon. PWATs over 2 inches are forecast to return to the area leading to efficient rainfall with any storms that develop. MLCAPE of 1500+ combined with 30 knots of 0-6km shear may support some strong or marginally severe storms although mid-lvl lapse rates appear rather marginal. This activity could linger into the overnight hours as the LLJ noses into south central and southeast KS with some mid-lvl waa persisting across the area. Some showers could linger over parts of central KS early on Wed before the heat builds back into the area during the afternoon hours with above average temperatures anticipated.

The mid/upper ridge is expected to return on Thu-Fri bringing hot and dry conditions to the area. A shortwave trough emerging from the Rockies will bring increasing probabilities for showers and storms to the area late Fri and Fri night with little relief from the heat. Unsettled weather conditions may linger into Sat as the upper ridge shifts eastward while a more robust shortwave trough moves over the Northern Plains. This will eventually drive a strong cold front southward over the area late Saturday into Sunday ushering in more seasonable air through early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 641 PM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Isolated storms might impact RSL site this evening otherwise dry weather conditions will prevail for all sites tonight. Low level wind shear will develop over the area for the late night hours then subside before daybreak. A frontal boundary will push slowly southward into central Kansas during the morning hours on Tuesday then reach south central Kansas by the late afternoon hours. There is some potential for low clouds in the MVFR category to develop behind the front over central Kansas. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop along the southward moving frontal boundary.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Hot and windy conditions will result in very high fire danger along and west of I-135 late this afternoon through the early evening hours. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067.