textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat continues across southeast KS for Independence Day, with heat indices near/above 105 degrees.

- Increasing shower and storm chances Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across the area.

- Spotty rain chances to start next week. Severe weather appears unlikely with this activity at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon depict southwesterly flow aloft over the Plains with an upper wave situated over the Northern Rockies. Lee troughing at the surface has once again promoted gusty south winds across the forecast area today. Short-term guidance continues to indicate the potential for showers and storms once again developing across western KS later this afternoon and evening along the surface trough. While remnants of this activity may reach central KS (Russell/Barton counties) tonight, currently not expecting strong or severe storms reaching our area with weak upper support and capping issues overhead.

Increasing heights/thicknesses will promote warming temperatures into the weekend particularly in central KS, where highs will climb into the middle to upper 90s through Independence Day. Further east, temperatures may be just a bit lower on Friday owing to cloud cover limiting surface insolation. However, clearing skies on Saturday will allow for warmer temperatures across southeast KS, and with surface dewpoints progged in the middle 70s along/east of the Flint Hills, heat indices will likely sit around/above 105 degrees into Saturday afternoon and early evening. Future forecast cycles may consider a Heat Advisory for these locations as confidence in this increases.

Widespread chances for showers and storms will return to the area Saturday evening as a weak frontal boundary pushes southward through the Central Plains. Still thinking storms will grow upscale into an MCS diving to the southeast. While the track of this complex appears somewhat uncertain, guidance moves this southeastward across the forecast area Saturday night into Sunday morning as the LLJ veers out. Main threats with this activity look to be strong winds and locally heavy rainfall, with limited hail concerns considering weak deep-layer shear.

Chances for isolated to scattered showers and storms will linger through the beginning of next week as a series of shortwaves traverse the Heartland. Temperatures will likely remain around normal for this time of year, with forecast highs in the low 90s and lows near 70.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24 hours.

Some isolated showers and storms earlier this afternoon have dissipated, and little to no additional development is forecast. Southerly winds will continue over the next day or so, and winds may be gusty at times. Sustained winds will be around 15 mph with gusts around 25 to 30 mph at times.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100.