textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures Saturday through at least mid-week.

- Potentially turning cooler by late week through next weekend.

- Increasing chances for off-and-on thunderstorms late Tuesday through week's end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...While an additional isolated shower/thunderstorm can't be ruled out over southern Kansas this afternoon-evening, thinking subsidence in wake of this morning's convection should keep a lid on most thunderstorm chances the rest of the day and through tonight.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--MONDAY EVENING...A cold front approaching from the northwest may support an isolated high-based thunderstorm or two generally along/north of I-70 late Sunday and again late Monday, but weak forcing should keep activity quite isolated, so most locations should remain thunderstorm-free. The main hazard would likely be isolated strong to severe wind gusts given inverted- v thermodynamic profiles.

LATE TUESDAY--WEEK'S END...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a shortwave progressing across Canada and the northern CONUS is expected to progress a cold front south into the region toward mid- week, and stalling it over Mid-America through at least week's end. A separate shortwave a few days later is expected to progress another cold front south, acting to reinforce the aforementioned stalled frontal. The result should be off-and-on thunderstorm chances from late Tuesday through at least week's end, and possibly even into next weekend. These isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will likely be highest each day from the early evening hours through the night, and dissipating in the morning. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a seasonable buoyancy/shear combination should support at least an isolated severe thunderstorm threat each day/night during this period.

TEMPERATURES AND WIND:

SATURDAY--WEDNESDAY...Persistent central/southern CONUS upper ridging in concert with breezy/gusty south winds will likely support above average temperatures through at least mid-week. Low-level thickness values supports widespread upper 90s and 100s during the day, with overnight lows likely no cooler than the upper 70s to low 80s. Forecast highs may actually be a tad conservative (especially along/west of I-135) given the mostly dry weather and associated lower soil moisture the past several weeks. Two saving graces during this upcoming heat wave are the likelihood of lower dewpoints compared to the July heat waves and stout/gusty south winds, which will aid in evaporative cooling effects on skin. Heat indices around 100-107 degrees are likely, highest over southern/southeast KS, so later shifts may need to consider Heat Advisory headlines at some point.

THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...A frontal zone oozing south and stalling somewhere over Mid-America should support somewhat cooler temperatures as we head into late week and beyond. The degree of cooling is highly uncertain and will be tied to how far south the frontal zone can reach. Cooler scenarios support widespread daytime highs in the 80s (especially next weekend), while warmer scenarios only "cool off" the region into the 90s. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

VFR conditions to resume shortly this afternoon, and persist through the remainder of the TAF period.

Showers and storms are gradually dissipating while moving south and east late this morning, and additional storms appear unlikely this afternoon. Meanwhile, in the wake of this morning's storms, breezy southerly to southeasterly winds have overspread much of the forecast area, especially across south- central and central Kansas. Wind speeds through 23-01Z this evening will generally be around 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots at times. After 01Z, winds will become much lighter; generally below 10 knots across the entire area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.