textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated thunderstorm is possible this afternoon/evening across southeast Kansas. This activity should remain sub-severe, and most locations should remain dry.

- Dry weather expected through Wednesday afternoon, then on- and-off shower/storm chances return Wednesday evening and last through the end of the week. Some storms Wednesday evening could be severe.

- Slight warming trend expected through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 119 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon highlight ridging over the Rockies as an upper low continues southward over the Ozark Plateau. Short-term guidance highlights the potential for an isolated shower or storm over areas along and east of the Flint Hills later this afternoon and evening amid slight cooling aloft on the western edge of this upper feature. Severe weather is not expected with any activity that manages to develop.

Similar to this morning, light surface winds and clear skies may result in patchy and shallow fog across portions of southeast Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Dense fog is not expected at this time.

Continued ridging across the region will promote warm and dry conditions over the next several days as heights and thicknesses increase. As such, a slight warming trend is expected with afternoon high temperatures reaching into the middle to upper 90s across central and south central Kansas by Wednesday.

A change in the pattern continues to be expected beginning Wednesday night as ridging breaks down and a series of shortwaves tracks over the Northern Plains. This will allow for a slow-moving boundary to shift southward into the forecast area and promote chances for showers and thunderstorms starting Wednesday evening. Ample instability and modest deep-layer shear may largely present a strong wind threat, though uncertainty remains regarding when and where storms will develop with models trending slower with recent runs. Stay tuned as we continue to refine details in the coming days. Storm chances will look to continue into perhaps Saturday as the frontal zone stalls out over the area.

With the best rain chances expected during the evening/overnight hours toward the end of the week, afternoon high temperatures will reach into the mid 90s areawide on Thursday which will promote heat indices near 105 degrees particularly across far southeast Kansas. Highs in the lower 90s are expected Friday and Saturday before another warmup begins to start next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region with light southeast winds over the next 24hrs. Could see some cumulus develop in the afternoon around 6000kt, but that will not create any issues for aviation concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.