textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures over the next week (upper 70s to lower 80s)

- Periodic shower and thunderstorm chances through Saturday night with the best chances Friday night into Saturday

- Dry Sunday into Monday before widespread rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

As of 130 PM Wednesday afternoon, a midlevel ridge axis extends from eastern TX through upper MO valley. A stout midlevel low is positioned off of the Baja with an impressive plume of Pacific moisture streaming northward across the southern Rockies and high Plains. Weak WAA from 850-700 mb is resulting in scattered showers across the western half of KS. A few showers may slide into portions of Barton and Russell counties this afternoon but rain amounts will remain a few hundredths to a tenth. Otherwise, the stretch of seasonable temperatures continues with highs topping out in the 70s/near 80 this afternoon.

Transitioning into tonight and Thursday, the midlevel ridge axis will slowly progress east, expanding the WAA axis eastward and bringing rain chances towards the I-135 corridor. Lapse rates will steepen slightly to allow for 300-500 J/kg of MUCAPE to develop. Brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning will be the main concerns with any thunderstorms late tonight into Thursday.

The rain chances will continue into Friday and even increase late Friday into Saturday as a midlevel shortwave trough emerges from the southwest US and ejects across the central Plains. This should allow for widespread rainfall. Fortunately, lapse rates profiles will remain weak and severe thunderstorms are not expected. Beyond Saturday, a midlevel ridge axis will slide across the central US Sunday into Monday as a trough axis comes ashore across the southwest US. This trough axis will slide across the central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, returning rain chances to the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A few showers, and maybe an isolated storm or two, are still forecast to impact areas along and west of a KSLN-KICT line, especially during the second half of the TAF period.

Currently, showers are confined to areas along and west of a KRSL-KDDC line; however, activity is expected to gradually shift eastward tonight into Thursday morning. In addition to marginal visibility reductions from light to moderate rainfall, low ceilings are also expected to creep into the region Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon across mainly central Kansas. It should mainly be MVFR cigs, but brief IFR conditions cannot be ruled out from time to time during the day on Thursday.

Lastly, surface winds will gradually shift from easterly to southerly over the next 24 hours while remaining between 5 and 15 knots.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.