textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather with warm above normal temperatures will continue through the weekend.

- A pattern change could lead to cooler temperatures and increase rain chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Oct 7 2026

Currently, another trough is beginning to dig into the northeastern U.S. while weak ridging extends across the western portions of the country. Ahead of the mid/upper level trough, a weak surface trough is developing across the Upper Midwest into the Plains. The associated frontal boundary will march southward through the day today, reaching our central Kansas counties this afternoon. This will lead to temperatures a couple of degrees cooler for the northern portions of the forecast area today and tomorrow. Highs in the lower 80s are anticipated for central Kansas while temperatures will reach into the middle to upper 80s for south-central and southeastern Kansas. Behind this weak boundary, winds will also shift out of the northeast over the course of the afternoon/evening, remaining light.

While anomalous heights will lead to afternoon temperatures reaching above normal through the end of the forecast period, the surface boundary associated with the northeastern US trough will linger over central Kansas through Thursday. Highs across south-central and southeast Kansas will once again reach into the middle to upper 80s for Thursday while highs over central Kansas will remain in the lower 80s. The boundary will lift north as a warm front by Friday, leading to middle to upper 80s areawide for Fri-Sun. By Saturday, a trough will begin digging into the Pac NW and a corresponding surface low will develop over the Northern Rockies. The resulting tightening pressure gradient over the Plains will lead to breezy southwesterly winds for the weekend. Sustained winds between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph are possible both Saturday and Sunday.

The next chance for a pattern change will then come next week as a cutoff low develops over southern California on Monday and lifts toward the Plains by mid week. While confidence in exact timing and impacts remains low, continuity between model guidance suggests increased rain chances and cooler temperatures for the tail end of the forecast time frame and beyond.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue Oct 6 2026

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain nil through the next 24 hours.

Still looking for a weak surface trough to provide a wind shift on Wed, however latest guidance has slowed it down. So not expecting it through central KS until an hour or two after sunrise and may get hung-up between KHUT and KICT by early Wed evening. Behind the trough, looking for winds to flip around to the east/northeast but will remain on the light side. Confidence remains very high that mostly clear skies will remain in place.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.