textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon into the evening across south central and southeast Kansas. Large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a few brief tornadoes are all possible.

- Spotty chances for showers and weak storms through mid week, with slightly better chances expected areawide beginning Wednesday evening.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected Sunday through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

A complex of showers and storms moved through the area earlier this morning and afternoon and pushed several effective boundaries through the region. One of these extends across far northeast Oklahoma, while a secondary boundary spans across south central Kansas from roughly Kingman County northeast through Chase County. Thunderstorms were observed along this latter boundary this afternoon, and models have struggled in their depiction of storm initiation later today. With this feature pushing through south central Kansas a bit earlier than previously expected, currently thinking the best chances for strong to severe development through the late afternoon and evening hours will reside in areas primarily along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, though severe activity may extend as far west as Kingman and Harper Counties. Plenty of instability and 30-40+ kts of deep-layer shear may allow for initial discrete supercells, especially with development that manages to occur ahead of the effective front. With enhanced low-level SRH from backed surface winds, wouldn't be a surprise to see perhaps a few brief tornadoes along with large hail with early activity, though this window may be brief as storms grow upscale quickly. After this change in storm mode, the primary threats will shift to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall that may promote flash flooding in some areas. Still expecting the severe threat to diminish generally around midnight, though this may occur even earlier if storms continue developing earlier than thought with the last several forecast cycles.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift to the south and east tonight, and some lingering showers may remain across southeast Kansas into Sunday. Additionally, opportunities for isolated showers and storms may persist Monday and Tuesday given a meandering mid/upper wave overhead, though limited flow aloft should preclude chances for widespread severe weather. Global models bring a series of mid/upper waves across the Northern Plains Wednesday and Thursday, which may provide the next opportunity for widespread showers and storms to the forecast area particularly during the evening/overnight hours.

In regards to temperatures, highs in the upper 80s are forecast Sunday before a return to the low 90s for Monday and Tuesday. A slight warming trend into the middle to upper 90s may occur Wednesday heading into next weekend as a mid-level ridge builds over the Rockies, but rain chances and associated cloud cover toward the latter half of the week may keep these slightly lower than currently expected.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms this evening.

Storms developed south of Wichita a few hours ago and are continuing to push south into OK along a cold front. Current thinking is that storms will stay south of all TAF sites this evening. The only exception may be KCNU, which may have a slight chance at a storm over the next couple of hours. While we may see an increase in low clouds later tonight, current thinking is that they will stay above IFR levels.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.