textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms later today through Thursday morning. Areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding likely.

- A handful of strong to severe thunderstorms later today through the evening, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats.

- Record high temperatures possible today, gradually turning much cooler from the northwest through late week. First frost of the season possible early Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A strong slow-moving cold front approaching from the north interacting with an unseasonably moist/unstable airmass will be the focus for scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through tonight across portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS. Thinking the greatest hazard from this activity will be areas of heavy rainfall and localized flooding concerns, due to the very moist airmass and the potential for training showers/storms owing to the parallel orientation of the slow-moving front and mid-level flow. The latest CAMs suggest the most likely location for the highest rain totals will be roughly along and either side of Highway 50 south through about Highways 54/400 counties. Localized 3-5+ inch amounts seem possible, so we went ahead and hoisted a Flood Watch late this afternoon through about mid-morning Wednesday for the highest confidence counties.

Additionally in the same area as the heavy rainfall threat, a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms are expected late this afternoon through the evening, given the moderate to strong buoyancy and decent 40-50 kts of deep layer effective shear. Initial supercells have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. Can't completely rule out an isolated brief tornado, especially for any supercell structures that can maintain into the evening when the surface flow backs a bit and the low-level jet increases. After about 8-9 PM, thinking merging cold pools should transition the primary thunderstorm hazards to wind and marginal hail (along with continued heavy rainfall). Furthermore, will likely see additional shower/thunderstorm development well north of the surface front as the evening and night progress, with a continued threat for marginally severe hail given ample elevated instability and effective shear.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY MORNING...This period will feature off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms and areas of drizzle across the region, as a deep upper trough approaches slowly from the west, and the deep cold frontal zone stalls across the area. Continued unseasonably rich precipitable waters and strong forcing should lead to areas of heavy rainfall and possibly some localized flooding issues. Limited buoyancy should temper the overall severe weather potential. Did not have enough confidence to run the current Flood Watch out past early Wednesday, but later shifts may need to consider extending it through Thursday morning for portions of the area.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY...This will be the last unseasonable warm day, with upper 80s to low 90s likely. May flirt with record highs at both Wichita and Chanute. In contrast, locations generally north of Great Bend to Salina will be much cooler in wake of the strong cold front, with 60s and 70s likely. Had to significantly undercut NBM temperatures for today in these locations.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday as well, and probably not quite enough, due to widespread clouds/precipitation along with the strong potential for a further south placement of the cold front. Highs in the 60s- 70s are likely, warmest over southeast KS. However, central KS may not get out of the 50s. Stout/gusty north winds will expand southeast across the region Thursday in wake of this strong storm system.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s to low 40s underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, added the potential for frost early Saturday generally along/north of Highway 50.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures, especially by next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1059 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

An approaching cold front is well ahead of schedule and TAFs were adjusted for a more rapid NNE wind shift along the I-70 corridor and this more rapid wind shift may still need to be adjusted further south as we move through the morning hours but the front may begin to slow down during the predawn hours. This front will likely become a focus for showers and thunderstorms as we move into the late morning and early afternoon hours with shower and thunderstorms lingering into the evening and overnight hours as an upper level storm system approaches. Some MVFR and IFR ceilings are possible in the wake of the front, especially across our central KS TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from this afternoon through Wednesday morning for KSZ051>053-067>072-082-083.