textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated thunderstorms possible during the late afternoon and evening today and Saturday. Severe weather possible if a storm or two can form.

- Better chances for thunderstorms look to arrive late Sunday and especially late Monday, severe weather possible.

- Hot, possibly recording breaking temperatures today through Monday.

- Very high grassfire danger expected Sunday and Monday for areas generally west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

OVERNIGHT--EARLY AFTERNOON...A lingering surface trough may support a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms overnight into early this morning generally along/north of Highway 56. This activity is fairly high-based, so severe weather is not expected. Another possible area of hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms may develop over southern and southeast KS late tonight and persist into early afternoon, in vicinity of weak/subtle mid-level impulses. Severe weather is not expected with this activity, and most locations should remain dry.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--TONIGHT...A weak cool front approaching from the northwest along with a modestly sharpening dryline to the west may support isolated to widely scattered thunderstorm development. The highest chances will likely be north of Highway 56 during the evening and night where the nose of the low-level jet will be focused, and possibly west of I-135 during the evening. Similar to Thursday, hefty downdraft CAPE may support locally strong to severe wind gusts, with decent buoyancy and lapse rates amidst rather weak shear supporting marginally severe hail.

SATURDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...While most locations across the forecast area will likely remain dry, a few isolated thunderstorms can't be ruled out northwest of a Great Bend to Salina line near a retreating warm front, and also ahead of a sharpening dryline generally west of I-135. Upper forcing is weak to non-existent and mid-level temperatures are warm, hence the low chances. However, shear/buoyancy combination would support large hail and damaging winds with any storms that can manage to develop. Better chances will likely remain north of the forecast area over far northern KS and Nebraska north of the warm front Saturday evening-night.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...Late Sunday also has a conditional severe weather threat, mainly west of I-135 ahead of a sharpening dryline. Thinking chances Sunday are a bit better than Saturday's chances given large scale ascent approaching from the west ahead of a deep upper trough, although capping may prove stubborn enough to prevent anything more than isolated development. If a storm or two is able to develop, all severe weather hazards are possible.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON--NIGHT...Thinking this period has the greatest potential for thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave and associated dryline/cold front combo approach from the west. Buoyancy/shear combination and magnitude of forcing supports severe thunderstorm potential, although "higher-end" severe potential could be tempered if the cold front overcomes the dryline too quickly, which would support a more messy storm mode. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

WIND:

Breezy/windy south winds will encompass the region through Monday, as lee troughing remains anchored over the High Plains. Thinking the strongest winds will be Sunday and Monday, with a tight pressure gradient and good mixing supporting gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.

TEMPERATURES:

Southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through Monday, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the 80s and 90s. Record high temperatures and record warm lows will be in jeopardy through Monday. A strong cold front looks to blast south across the region Monday night, supporting a return to near average temperatures by Tuesday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1008 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue across southeast KS through midday with coverage decreasing into the afternoon. A few additional thunderstorms are possible across portions of central and south-central KS late this afternoon into the evening. Southerly wind gusts will increase by midday across south-central and southeast KS to 20-25 kt.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135 Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty south winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.