textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and storms possible late this afternoon into tonight mainly in central KS.

- Numerous storms are expected Saturday night into Sunday morning with severe storms likely. Damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall are the main hazards, though a brief tornado cannot be ruled out.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for Saturday through much of the next work week with highs in the low to mid 80s with additional rain chances possible next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a front is draped down from the low in northern Minnesota into southern Nebraska with showers and storms ongoing in northern Kansas. Late this afternoon into the evening, weak 850-700 mb warm moist advection will increase making showers and storms possible mainly in central KS. As we move into tonight, the cold front will shift into northern to central Kansas allowing this activity to linger into the overnight hours. Its possible for some showers and storms to shift into south-central KS as moisture continues to surge north, though chances remain low. A few strong storms are possible in central KS given MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg with 35-40kts of effective shear. The main hazard with this would be small hail and locally brief heavy rainfall. Slight storm chances are possible to linger into Saturday morning with chances decreasing mid Saturday morning.

The main focus for severe weather continues to be Saturday night into Sunday morning. The front will remain in northern KS Saturday afternoon into the night. Low-level upslope flow with warm moist advection will set up in southwestern Nebraska into northwestern Kansas late Saturday afternoon into the early evening which will initiate storm development. Additionally, storm chances will continue to increase late Saturday night as a shortwave trough moves into the Central Rockies Saturday night combined with a strengthening LLJ. Initial storm development in northwest KS is expected to grow upscale relatively quick as the bulk shear vector is oriented along the boundary with a MCS anticipated to track east into central and eastern KS, though there is some uncertainty with how far south/southeast into south-central and southeast KS this system tracks. Modest instability combined with 40-50 kts of effective shear and up to 1200 J/kg of DCAPE will make damaging winds the main hazard, though large hail up to ping pong size cannot be ruled out. Heavy rainfall with potential flooding concerns is also likely given this moist airmass with PWATS around 1.8 inches which is slightly under the maximum for this time of year. A few brief tornadoes cannot be ruled out given increasing low-level shear and backed winds near the frontal boundary. Storm chances will continue into the overnight hours and into Sunday morning, though its uncertain how long severe storms will persist. By Sunday morning, activity is expected to have shifted to eastern KS with storm chances transitioning to southern KS Sunday afternoon into Sunday night along the front as the shortwave trough slides across the Central Plains.

Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry before rain chances increase Monday night into Tuesday as an upper trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Monday night. Upper ridging will build into the western CONUS, shifting flow aloft to northwesterly in the Central Plains by Wednesday. Another shortwave trough is progged to ride the ridge and eject into the Northern Plains on Wednesday night leading to better rain chances across the area Wednesday night into Thursday. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Thunderstorms are currently impacting portions of central Kansas. This activity may continue to propagate southeastward, impacting HUT and ICT later this evening. Reduced vis and low cigs will be the main hazards with this activity.

MVFR cigs will overspread central and south-central Kansas sites generally after 08/09Z. Ceilings will lift during the late morning hours. Winds will remain easterly/southeasterly through the forecast period, increasing to above 10 knots between 16-18Z. Some gusts to 25 knots will impact central Kansas sites after 20Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.