textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- High wind event today with northwest wind gusts up to 60 mph along I-70, with gusts 50-55 for the remainder of the area.

- Strong winds will lead to extreme grassland fire danger today. Any fire that starts will spread rapidly.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through this weekend and next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Currently, a potent low pressure system is centered over the Northern Plains with a cold frontal boundary extending across central Nebraska into northern Kansas. Ahead of this front, strong southerly winds are gusting around 30-35 knots. Behind the boundary, a brief period of extremely gusty winds is being seen. A few isolated gusts to 55 mph are possible for our central Kansas counties as this front passes through. Along and just ahead of the front, a few showers are showing up on radar over central Kansas. Though, with a sizable dewpoint depression, very little is reaching the surface. A few sprinkles can't be ruled out over the next few hours as these echoes progress eastward.

For the rest of today, the main impact from this potent system will result from a tightening pressure gradient behind the boundary on Thursday. This will lead to gusty northwesterly winds with sustained winds between 35-40 mph for central Kansas and gusts of 55-60 mph. Further south across south-central and southeastern Kansas, sustained winds of 30-35 mph with gusts reaching between 50-55 mph are expected. These winds combined with low humidity and the overall dry pattern we've seen the past month will lead to elevated fire weather concerns primarily this afternoon. In addition, blowing dust will likely accompany the stronger wind gusts, especially across central Kansas. This could make driving very dangerous along I-70, especially for areas west of Salina. Slightly cooler, near normal temperatures are expected on Thursday behind the frontal boundary with highs reaching into the upper 40s to around 50 degrees.

Headlines across the area generally remain the same. A High Wind Warning is in effect for portions of central Kansas with a Wind Advisory in place for south-central and southeastern Kansas through 00Z. The Red Flag Warning has been expanded to include all our counties as the high winds and low humidity will lead to areas of extreme fire danger into southeast Kansas.

For Friday and Saturday, upper level flow will become zonal allowing temperatures to warm into the upper 50s to around 60 each afternoon under partly cloudy skies. Ahead of the next system, winds will turn southerly across the area and we'll see gusty winds again on Friday afternoon as the surface gradient tightens. The next quick hitting, weak system will pass through the Canadian Prairies and the Northern Plains on Saturday dragging an associated cold front through our area on Saturday night. This front will act to moderate our warming trend, nudging temperatures closer to normal for this time of year with highs on Sunday topping out in the lower 50s. Then temperatures will once again begin rebounding to above normal as strong ridging builds in for next week. Highs on Monday look to reach into the upper 50s to lower 60s with Tuesday and Wednesday hinting at lower 60s areawide. The first peak at Christmas tends to indicate temperatures well above normal with highs in the 60s continuing through the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Winds have turned northwesterly for all sites except for CNU this morning with the front expected to arrive there in the next hour or two. Strong winds are expected through much of the day. Wind gusts between 20-30 knots this morning will increase to between 40-50 knots around 16Z. Winds will diminish rapidly after 00Z, with winds under 10 knots expected between 00-03Z. Winds will then turn southwesterly towards the end of the forecast period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Extreme fire danger likely across most of the area on Thursday with very high fire danger possible on Friday.

Northwest winds will quickly increase late this morning with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range likely by the early afternoon, with the higher speeds over central KS. By the early afternoon, RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range with the lower end of these values for locations west of I-135. Any fires that start today will be difficult to control, especially across central KS where winds will be slightly stronger.

For Friday, winds will flip around to the southwest with gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values will be in the 25 to 30% range and will combine with the winds to produce very high grassland fire danger for much of the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ067>072-082- 083-091>096-098>100.