textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Hot and humid conditions continues for today and Saturday
- Strong to severe storms possible Saturday afternoon and night along with locally heavy rainfall
- Cooler temperatures expected for next week across the entire region
DISCUSSION
Issued at 155 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Surface low pressure will deepen over northwest Kansas today with increasing south wind speeds and very warm temperatures over central/eastern Kansas. Daytime highs will be well above normal again today and Saturday with heat indices around 100 degrees over southern Kansas. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level trough over the northwestern states, and a lead short wave over the southwestern states. The lead short wave will move northeast and reach eastern Colorado by tonight. This lead wave will spark off showers/storms in eastern Colorado eastward across northwest Kansas into eastern Nebraska tonight. Meanwhile the parent upper trough will continue to move east across the Rockies and eject out into Nebraska and the Dakotas by Sunday night. A frontal boundary will sag slowly southward across Kansas for Saturday into Saturday night with scattered to numerous showers/storms developing along the front especially at night. A few strong to severe storms are possible with modest instability and wind shear around 30kts expected. There is also some potential for locally heavy rainfall Saturday night. Cooler air will finally begin to push southward across the region for Sunday along with lingering shower/storm chances.
Heading into next week noticeably cooler air will finally overspread the entire region in the wake of the upper level wave moving eastward across the northern plains. Dry weather is also expected with drier air in place as surface high pressure dominates over the central plains. Long range models are hinting at the next chance for showers/storms possibly arriving late Wednesday night into Thursday.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026
Low level wind shear will affect central Kansas this morning otherwise south winds will increase and become strong/gusty later this morning through the afternoon hours. VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24hrs.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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