textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief warm-up today followed by near normal temperatures for the rest of the work week.

- Slight storm chances are possible tonight in central Kansas with additional rain chances across the state for Wednesday night. Severe weather is possible with this activity.

- Another warm-up expected for the weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

Currently, the region is under northwesterly flow as the ridge center has shifted over the Desert Southwest and the ridge builds over the Rockies. A trough is digging into the Great Lakes region from the central Canada provinces. At the surface, the frontal boundary that pushed across the forecast area as a cold front has stalled out over the Red River Valley. As the ridge builds to our southwest and heights increase over the area today, this boundary will lift back over the state as a warm front. We will see temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s expected areawide today. Dewpoints across the area will remain in the lower to middle 60s leading to heat index values between 105-108 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today from 1PM-8PM for portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

For tonight, as the strengthening trough digs into the Great Lakes region, an associated frontal boundary will sweep across the Northern Plains and into Nebraska. This feature will lead to rain and storms impacting northern and northeastern Kansas, with some severe activity potentially clipping our central Kansas counties. Modest instability and shear, along with steep lapse rates, will support a few discreet cells capable of strong wind gusts and large hail.

The frontal boundary will slowly pass across the state on Wednesday, leading to quite the temperature difference from north to south. Locations in central Kansas will see highs on Wednesday in the upper 80s while spots along the KS/OK border will top out in the lower 100s. Isolated rain/storm chances return to the forecast area on Wednesday night as a weak shortwave dips across the Central Plains into a modestly moist airmass, severe weather looks unlikely with this scenario.

Seasonably warm temperatures behind the front, along with a drier air mass, are then expected for Thu/Fri. For the end of the forecast period, models continue to show the ridge building back in over the region from the west. Trends show warmer temperatures for the upcoming weekend and into next week with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Long term solutions keep the strengthening ridge over the Rockies and Plains beyond the forecast time frame suggesting another long duration heat wave may be in store.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Tue Aug 18 2026

A outflow boundary has stalled out over south central Kansas early this afternoon and will lift back north causing winds to switch around to the south/southeast. Meanwhile the actual surface cold front is expected to sink southward across Kansas for this evening into the overnight hours. A few storms could develop along the front this evening over central Kansas and have introduced a PROB30 for SLN site. Otherwise VFR conditions expected for most sites during the next 24hrs.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-068-082- 083-091>093-096-098>100.