textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and isolated thunderstorms this morning; additional showers/storms possible this afternoon

- A few strong/severe storms cannot be ruled out this morning/afternoon. Hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph are the main concerns.

- A period of light snow possible Friday/Friday night; minimal impacts expected

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

As of 230 AM Thursday morning, midlevel flow continues to transition to southwesterly as a shortwave trough approaches the central/southern Plains. An unusually moist airmass will will advect into portions of southern and southeast KS later this morning, characterized by dew points near 60 degrees and PW values in the 1.0- 1.25" in range. The shortwave trough will eject across the region later this morning into the early afternoon. Short range guidance has trended towards weaker midlevel lapse rates, more-so on the order of 5-6 C/km. Even so, overlaying this lapse rate plume over the unusual warm/moist boundary layer will create modest instability with MUCAPE reaching 400-700 J/kg. This corridor of instability will be tied to along and south of the warm front or generally along and southeast of the KS Turnpike. As far as shear is concerned, forecast hodographs are supportive of strong/severe storms with modest acceleration above 1 km, contributing to effective shear in the 35- 45 kt range. All of that to say, a stray strong/severe cannot be ruled out for areas along/southeast of the KS Turnpike. Latest SSCRAM probabilities continue to increase to the potential for damaging winds in the 6 AM to noon timeframe. This is likely due to a very moist boundary layer, weak boundary layer inversion and strong low- level wind profiles. In addition, the overlap of instability and modest shear may yield a hail threat up to quarter size. Aside from the potential for thunderstorms, widespread rainfall is expected this morning as the aforementioned shortwave trough progresses across the area. Latest probabilistic guidance has increased with the potential for more than 0.50" for areas along/east of I-135 and near I-70. This is due in part to the convective nature of the precipitation expected this morning along and east of I-135 and additional deformation precipitation across central KS. Latest probabilities for more than 0.50" range from 20- 40% across Reno, Kingman, and Harper counties to 60-80% near I-135 and I-70 to nearly 100% across the Flint Hills.

Transitioning into this afternoon, the lead shortwave trough will eject into the lower MO valley. A gradual decrease in cloud cover is expected across southern KS as the Pacific front approaches. As low- level lapse rates steepen ahead of its arrival, surface based buoyancy may develop. Latest short range HRRR/RAP guidance suggest up to 500 J/kg of instability may emerge. The background wind fields will remain strong with effective shear in the 35-40 kt range. As such, a stray surface based storm cannot be ruled out along the front this afternoon. The zone with a potential for surface based storms will extend along and southeast of a line from Kingman to Newton to Marion. This potential will quickly come to end with the frontal passage by 6 PM. Damaging winds up to 60 mph and small hail will be the main concerns should convection develop.

After the cold front moves through the area late this afternoon temperatures will fall into the upper 20s across central KS, 30s elsewhere by Friday morning. As the main midlevel trough ejects into the central/southern Plains Friday into Friday night, additional precipitation will become possible once again. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended lower with QPF and associated snow amounts. As it stands now areas from southwest KS into central KS stand the greatest potential for receiving up to 1" of snow. These probabilities range from 10-20% across central KS. Probabilities decrease with southeast extent to near zero southeast of the KS Turnpike. All of that to say, minimal, if any, impacts are expected with this light snow event.

Broad northwesterly midlevel flow will become established for the weekend into early next week. Temperatures will rebound into the 40s for Saturday and Sunday. Westerly low-level will overspread the area Monday into Tuesday as a deep surface low traverses the northern Plains/Great Lakes. This will yield even warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s to near 60 Monday and Tuesday. The surface trough associated with the aforementioned surface low will slide through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday sending temperatures back into the 40s for Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Scattered showers will continue to overspread most of central, south-central and southeast KS through late morning. Lightning strikes have been noted across portions of south-central and southeast KS. Introduced VCTS and -TSRA at ICT and CNU through late morning to account for this potential. Widespread MVFR to IFR CIGS are expected as deeper low-level moisture overspreads the region. CIGS may scatter by late morning, especially across south-central and southeast KS as a Pacific front approach. In fact, an additional round of thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out along the Pacific front across south-central and southeast KS. Have introduced a PROB30 group at HUT, ICT, and CNU to account for this potential. As this front moves through, winds will shift from the northwest with MVFR to IFR CIGS returning as well. CIGS are expected to scatter from west to east late this evening/early Friday morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.