textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for patchy fog across portions of central Kansas this morning.

- Next rain chances Sunday evening through Monday evening.

- Temperatures remaining mild through Monday, then a cold front brings cooler weather Tuesday onwards.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb upper-air analysis this morning shows the departing shortwave trough skating quickly across the Midwest and Ohio River Valley with the next system spinning off the western coast of the Baja Peninsula and Southern California. Closer to home, persistent low clouds and drizzle are gradually diminishing from north to south with clouds clearing in the vicinity of the surface ridge sliding into northern Kansas this morning. Radiational cooling and wet grounds are leading to the development of fog across portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. Some areas north of I-70 are already reporting visibilities under a quarter of a mile, so conditions will need to be monitored for the potential for dense fog along and north of I-70 this morning.

As the surface ridge continues to slide southeast throughout the day, light winds will shift to westerly, and low clouds & fog should clear the area by late morning or early afternoon. Despite the relatively chilly start this morning, afternoon temperatures will be mild with highs in the upper 50s and low 60s. Meanwhile, throughout the day today, the cutoff low off the Pacific coast will begin to progress eastward and is set to arrive late on Sunday bringing the central plains' next rain chances.

Similar to Thursday's rainfall event, broad synoptic lift from the approaching vigorous shortwave trough will support a large swath of light rainfall progressing across much of Kansas Sunday afternoon through Monday afternoon. As mentioned in the previous discussion, the best forcing could goalpost the forecast area leaving the better rainfall totals across northern Kansas and Nebraska, and across northern Oklahoma. Some of the moderate rainfall could sneak into southeast Kansas leading to better rainfall totals in this portion of the forecast area. Overall through, rainfall totals look to be much lighter with this system than the previous one.

As the surface low departs the area late Monday and into Tuesday, a drier and cooler airmass is forecast to settle in and linger through the remainder of the week. Increasing northwesterly winds on Tuesday will support ushering in this airmass throughout much of the day. There are some questions about how mixed the boundary layer will be on Tuesday, but GFS soundings show a deeply mixed boundary layer with up to 40 knots at 850 mb. All this to say, Tuesday could be a bit breezier than what the current NBM run suggests. With this cooler air mass expected to persist through the remainder of the week, afternoon temperatures Tuesday through Friday will be in the 40s and 50s with overnight lows in the 20s and low 30s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 513 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

IFR/LIFR ceilings are gradually receding southward this morning, but should linger across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas over the next few hours impacting KICT and KCNU along with surrounding sites. Meanwhile, patchy fog is developing across portions of central Kansas. After 18Z, VFR conditions are expected to resume area-wide, although it's possible portions of far southeast Kansas could see lingering MVFR/IFR cigs into the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to remain under 10 knots across the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.