textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated thunderstorms possible later today and again Sunday afternoon and evening. Severe weather is possible with the strongest activity.

- Higher chances for severe weather return on Monday.

- Hot Sunday and Monday, then cooling down by Tuesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict mid/upper jet spanning from Nebraska to Lake Superior ahead of an approaching wave positioned over the Northern Rockies. Lee troughing within the right entrance region of the aforementioned jet has promoted a relatively strong surface pressure gradient and subsequent gusty south winds across the region so far today. Showers and storms are expected to develop along a lifting warm front later this afternoon in areas north of Interstate 70. While we could see a few storms further south across the forecast area this afternoon and evening, short-term model prognosis suggests limited low-level convergence for convective initiation. However, should a storm manage to develop, modest deep-layer shear, abundant instability, and DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg would support a damaging wind threat. As of now, the best chances for storms lie west of Interstate 135.

The shortwave positioned over the northwest CONUS will amplify later tonight with increasingly meridional flow commencing over the Central/Northern Plains by mid morning Sunday. Models suggest the surface low should set up a bit further north and east than today, which will place the dryline roughly along a line from Lincoln to Great Bend off to the southwest. Convergence along the boundary appears relatively weak at this time, though deep-layer shear just a little bit stronger than today paired with abundant instability within the warm sector would support large hail and damaging winds in any storms that manage to develop. Modest large-scale ascent is largely expected to preclude greater thunderstorm coverage.

In addition to storm potential, continued lee troughing resulting in a tight surface pressure gradient alongside strong mixing will allow for another day of strong south winds on Sunday. With sustained speeds in the 25-35 mph wind and gusts up to 50 mph likely for a majority of the area, a Wind Advisory has been issued to cover the daytime hours. A similar setup and subsequent advisory issuance both appear likely for Monday.

The aforementioned shortwave is forecast to translate eastward out of the Rockies and lift as it ejects into the High/Central Plains on Monday. Mid-range models (NAM/Euro) place the dryline setup across southwest Kansas by afternoon and early evening with an approaching cold front from the northwest. Convergence along the dryline may result in thunderstorm development, and combined with strong deep- layer shear (50-60 kts) oriented orthogonal to the boundary alongside very high instability (> 2000 J/kg) would support supercells capable of all hazards. However, models are beginning to hint that the cold front will come down a bit quicker than previously thought, which would promote more of a messier linear storm mode through the evening hours. This scenario would support more of a damaging wind threat for areas west of the Flint Hills. Details continue to be refined as additional data becomes available, so stay tuned to upcoming forecast cycles.

Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 80s and 90s will continue through Monday throughout the area due to southerly winds and above average layer thicknesses. The arrival of the cold front on Tuesday is expected to knock temperatures back to near normal (low 70s) with the potential for some areas to see values in the 60s by Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Mostly clear conditions and breezy southeast winds will prevail through most of the overnight hours. Low level wind shear will increase over central/south central Kansas later tonight as a southerly low level jet develops. We also expect to see some MVFR cigs impact southeast Kansas including CNU shortly after sunrise on Sat but they are expected to mix out by mid- morning. Storm activity over northwest Kansas is expected to propagate eastward while remaining north of the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 321 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Strong south winds, above normal temperatures, and exceptionally dry air will result in very high fire danger for areas primarily along and west of I-135 on Sunday, then again for portions of central Kansas on Monday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 9 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>071-082-083-091>094-098.