textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry weather through the day Thursday.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected Tuesday and Thursday, with extreme grassland fire danger on Tuesday for portions of central Kansas.

- More seasonable temperatures and spotty precip chances to end the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Currently, water vapor satellite imagery depicts a broad mid and upper level ridge across the central portions of the country. A trough is moving on shore in the Pacific Northwest and will be the main driving force for our weather concerns going into Tuesday. A strong LLJ is currently leading to gusty southwesterly winds across south-central and southeastern Kansas which is aiding our warmup to well above normal temperatures. Afternoon highs across the forecast area will top out around 70 degrees. Winds will diminish later this afternoon as the LLJ shifts further east.

For Tuesday, ridging will prevail through the majority of the day. But the approaching trough over the Rockies will support a deepening surface low over the Northern Plains. This feature will lead to a tightening pressure gradient across the state and strong southwesterly winds. Sustained winds between 25-35 mph and gusts up to 40-45 can be expected, with the strongest winds across central Kansas. Afternoon highs will once again reach into the lower to middle 70s. The surface low to the north will drag an associated frontal boundary across the area generally after 00Z. This boundary will not impact temperatures significantly, but will usher in much drier air. Strong winds, falling dewpoints, and warm temperatures have lead to a Red Flag Warning being issued for portions of central Kansas with a Fire Weather Watch continuing for south-central and portions of southeastern Kansas.

For Wednesday through the end of the week, shortwave ridging will continue to support temperatures in the 70s and mostly clear conditions on Wednesday. Troughing to the west will finally begin to shift eastward with a developing surface low over the Rockies passing over the forecast area by Thursday morning. The frontal boundary will turn winds out of the northwest by mid morning with gusty conditions expected through the day. Temperatures will also begin to fall on Thursday, with highs ranging from around 50 in central Kansas to near 70 in far southeast Kansas. Model guidance brings the surface low a little further south compared to previous runs. As such, light rain/snow showers have been introduced into the Thursday night time frame across central Kansas. A secondary weak shortwave on Friday night/Saturday could lead to light rain/snow mix moving eastward across the area. No significant precipitation is anticipated with either of these features.

Sunday into early next week, troughing will exit the region to the east with ridging building in from the west. A dramatic warmup is not expected, but temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs reaching into the 50s under clearing skies.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 540 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will remain in the 8-12 kt range for the majority of the overnight. LLWS conditions will gradually spread southeast across the area with onset times around 06Z for RSL/GBD/HUT/SLN/ICT and closer to 10Z for CNU. These LLWS conditions will subside by mid to late morning as southwesterly/westerly winds increase to 18-28 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. The strongest gusts are expected to remain near GBD and RSL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

For Tuesday: A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of central Kansas with a Fire Weather Watch remaining in effect for area along and west of the Flint Hills. Strong southwesterly winds combined with low RH values and above normal temperatures continue to support very high to extreme grassland fire danger. Model guidance has slowed the approach of the frontal boundary tomorrow afternoon/evening thus the drier air will hold off till after 00Z. That, combined with upper level clouds, could act to curb some fire wx concerns. The GFDI reflects these factors as the extreme GFDI is confined to portions of central Kansas where the RFW is in effect.

For Thursday: Strong post-frontal northwesterly winds combined with much drier air will lead to very high grassland fire danger areawide for Thursday afternoon. In addition, additional days of drying under warm and breezy conditions the next couple days could further prime fuels for increased fire conditions.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 7 PM CST Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047-048. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ049>053-067>071-082-083-091-092.