textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms this evening and overnight, with main threat brief microburst winds and isolated heavy rain.

- For the first time since back in mid/late July, much of the area will see highs in the 80s on Thursday! However, "cool- down" will be short-lived as we get back into the upper 90s to around 100 for Sunday and Monday.

- Periodic storm chances for Friday night through next week, with the highest chances Monday night into Tuesday as another cold front moves through.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Currently have a shortwave trough tracking across southern Ontario with another impulse tracking out of the Northern Rockies. Cold front currently stretches from Central MO, to along Highway 50 in central KS and into southwest KS.

Surface based storms have started to increase in coverage over the last couple of hours along the front and along outflow produced from previous storms over mainly south central KS. This trend is expected to continue as we head through the late afternoon and early evening hours, with areas south of Highway 50 seeing the better coverage. An isolated downburst to 60 mph will be possible with the stronger storms. We may see a break after this initial activity slowly weakens and pushes south this evening. We are then looking for a jet max to sink south tonight placing much of the area in the right entrance region. In addition, there has been some model consistency in swinging through a weak mid level trough tonight. This should allow convection to expand, especially after 06z. While widespread severe storms are not anticipated, some small hail, 50-60 mph winds and brief heavy rain will be possible.

Storms should be ongoing across southern KS Thursday morning as mid level trough continues to slowly slide east. However, by the afternoon hours, precip is expected to be south and east of the forecast area. For the first time since back on July 23rd, we are looking for highs in the 80s on Thursday!

For Thu night into Fri, upper troughing will start to dig from the Pacific Northwest into the Northern Rockies. This will quickly get the Plains back into return flow and allow above normal temps to quickly return, with widespread low 90s likely for Fri. Still looking for storms to develop along a cold front to our north on Friday evening. There are still a couple model solutions tracking this convection through parts of our forecast area Fri night into Sat morning. However, confidence is low as it will be highly dependent on where storms initially develop along the front. A much more robust upper low will move into the Pacific Northwest late Sat night into Sun morning. This will allow low level jet to ramp-up Sat night and may bring some additional storm chances into Sun morning.

Bad news is that confidence is increasing in above normal temps for Sun into Mon with mid to upper 90s likely. Based on 850mb temps and 1000-850mb partial thicknesses, don't think it's out of the question that some sites could hit 100 on Sun-Mon. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a strong cold front moving through Mon evening through Tue with high storm chances expected along it.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances.

Storms developed near a cold front late this afternoon and generated a large outflow boundary that is now pushing through southern KS. For the next few hours we should continue to see scattered storms across mainly southern KS, affecting KICT and especially KCNU. Additional development will be possible after about 05z, mainly across eastern and southern KS. There is also good model agreement that some upper energy will track out of CO and into western KS early Thu morning and will keep some activity around through much of the morning hours Thursday. For Thu morning, southern KS will have the better shower and storm chances.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.