textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms likely late tonight into Thursday morning with heavy rain being the primary concern. Can't rule out some marginal severe storms with up to quarter size hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts.

- Additional storms possible Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Some severe storms are possible Thursday afternoon and night with up to 65 mph wind gusts, up to quarter size hail, and maybe a few brief tornadoes. Heavy rainfall throughout the day could lead to additional areal and river flooding.

- Much warmer conditions this weekend into early next week. Heat and humidity could present some concerns during the afternoon hours each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis shows persistent northwest flow over the central plains with an upper shortwave traversing across the Great Basin. At the surface, lingering showers and storms are exiting southeast Kansas and leaving behind a mild and stable airmass in their wake. Despite clearing skies and abundant moisture, widespread subsidence should keep a lid on convection for the remainder of the afternoon and evening across the forecast area.

The aforementioned wave over the Great Basin will begin to make its way over the Rockies this evening, and numerous thunderstorms across the High Plains are expected in response to increasing synoptic ascent. Additionally, storms are possible along a weak boundary located across southern Nebraska. Thunderstorm activity from both of these locations should congeal into a loosely organized MCS and track south/southeastward into northern and central Kansas after midnight. It's a little uncertain how this activity will evolve, but guidance suggests a line of storms pushing into the vicinity of I-70 and slowly weakening during the early morning hours of Thursday. This is likely due to the LLJ and mid-level moisture transport becoming more focused out across western Kansas early Thursday morning as pressure falls occur across the High Plains in response to the incoming shortwave. Widespread thunderstorm activity across western Kansas will become the primary show, and this should track eastward into south-central Kansas by day break Thursday morning. While isolated instances of quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts are possible, the main concern will be very heavy rainfall and flooding from this activity, especially south of US-54. It's uncertain where the axis of heaviest rainfall will occur and how long the heavy rain will persist Thursday morning, but locations in this axis of heavy rain will likely experience flooding or flash flooding Thursday morning.

This complex of storms will gradually continue eastward late Thursday morning into early Thursday afternoon, but unlike today, strong mid-level WAA throughout the day on Thursday will possibly support continued festering of shower and thunderstorm activity across a large portion of the forecast area. This continued and persistent convection may rack up our rainfall totals across numerous locations, and flash flooding and river flooding certainly appear possible. All of this convection will likely push the surface boundary/pseudo warm front south into Oklahoma leaving much of the forecast area with fairly meager surface based instability. However, with all of the moisture in the column, there will be fairly decent 0- 3km CAPE and very low LCLs. This along with an increasing LLJ Thursday evening will support enlarged hodographs, particularly within the first 3km of the column. Should this environment be realized Thursday afternoon and evening, there would be an outside chance of a couple tornadoes, with better chances along the OK/KS state line. The 15Z RAP shows what a worst case scenario would be with soundings similar to those usually seen with a Gulf coast tornado event.

Despite this chance of a couple tornadoes, the primary concern throughout the day will be flooding as regardless of where the surface boundary is located Thursday afternoon and evening, any storm that develops will produce heavy and efficient rainfall. To add insult to injury, another MCS is anticipated to traverse off the High Plains and trek eastward across much of Kansas late Thursday night into Friday morning further adding to rainfall totals across the area. Fortunately, after this complex of storms exits the area later on Friday, a break in the precipitation is anticipated heading into the Weekend.

THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...

Beginning on Saturday, the central plains will begin to feel the influence of a strengthening upper ridge across the southern and southeast CONUS, and the persistent upper flow that has been the main driver for all of the recent unsettled weather will be forced northward. Increasing heights aloft and warming mid-level temperatures will support increasing surface temperatures heading into the weekend and early next week. Mid to long range guidance may be a tick on the warm side in terms of afternoon highs each day; however with so much evapotranspiration from recent rainfall likely to occur, dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s are possible. Even if afternoon temperatures only rise into the low to mid 90s, this would be enough to drive heat indices up to 105, or higher, each afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

VFR conditions currently prevail across all terminal sites. Periodic rain showers and storms chances will be possible for all of this TAF period, though there is a lot of uncertainty with this forecast for where storms will develop and potential terminal impacts. For this issuance, continued the PROB30 for tonight into Thursday morning. There is a chance showers and storms fester throughout much of the day, but again there is low confidence in this, so left it out of this TAF issuance. An additional round of storms is possible Thursday afternoon into the night, but given low certainty on where storms will develop left mention of this out as well. Outside of storm chances, relatively light winds are expected through Thursday morning before winds pick up in central and south-central KS to around or slightly above 10 kts late Thursday morning and continuing through this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Thursday through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.