textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather chances will mainly affect south central and southeast Kansas after 5PM, and look to diminish around midnight or 1AM

- Cooler and windy on Wednesday followed by even stronger winds on Thursday which looks to elevate the fire danger risk to critical levels

- A noticeable cool down could be in store for Kansas on Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Near record highs possible again across south central/southeast Kansas for today. See climate section down below for details.

Current analysis shows richer low level moisture already spreading northward into southern Kansas, and behavior/maintenance of this moisture during the day along with timing of low level convergence response from a secondary surface low over southwest Kansas will be key thing to monitor for storm initiation timing/location. CAM models are in good agreement showing a very deeply mixed airmass forcing parcels to reach their LFC level during the 4pm to 6pm timeframe. Which sparks off high based convection over northern Texas panhandle northeast towards the Medicine Lodge area. This activity will spread northeast into south central Kansas by this evening where deeper low level moisture should begin to advance northward from increasing 850mb jet along with low level convergence strengthening along the surface front. Where a favorable environment of higher instability/strong mid- level wind shear supports large hail up golf balls and damaging winds from modest DCAPE values. The activity could transition into a linear bowing segment near the frontal boundary as storms congeal together which could enhance damaging wind potential. The activity will quickly spread east with the severe threat diminishing around midnight.

Gusty north winds will begin to overspread the area behind the cold front passage for late Tuesday night where 1000-850mb lapse rates steepen over central Kansas. The low-level mixing depth will continue to rise during the morning hours Wednesday making for a windy and cooler day. Winds will diminish quickly by Wednesday evening then ramp up again on Thursday from the southwest. Ensemble probabilities for 850mb wind speeds of 40kts or greater during the afternoon hours on Thursday continues to increase compared to previous model runs, thus increasing the confidence for strong surface winds to occur(possibly reaching into wind advisory levels). Some high clouds are expected to stream overhead which could limit the full extent of mixing, but enough of a signal with increased surface pressure gradient and mixing of those 850mb winds to the ground. A nice warming trend will be in store for Thursday-Saturday along with dry weather due to richer low-level moisture being shoved well south into the Gulf of Mexico in the wake of Wednesday's deep southward cold front plunge.

Big weather changes are appearing to arrive during the Sunday-Monday period, as model ensemble trends are highlighting a more pronounced upper level wave racing southeast across Kansas via the northwest flow regime. This system will push noticeably colder air southward across Kansas along with strong north winds making for a winter like feel over the region. There are some indications for a quick burst of winter precipitation to impact the eastern half of Kansas, but the fleet-footed nature of this upper wave at this time keeps that risk lower. Will watch model trends for any changes on this potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A frontal boundary will push southward across central Kansas later this morning then slow down across southern Kansas for this afternoon. Storm are expected to develop along the frontal boundary later this afternoon and evening, mainly impacting southern Kansas TAF sites of ICT and CNU this evening. The north winds will increase behind the frontal passage later tonight and become gusty. Meanwhile showers and storms will gradually shift east of the region later tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Very high fire danger will affect central and south central Kansas on Wednesday with strong gusty north winds, however that threat could be reduced some for areas that experience meaningful rainfall Tuesday night. Otherwise the day of concern continues to be Thursday. This is when the combination of very strong southwest winds, warmer temperatures, and lower relative humidity supports Very High to Extreme fire danger levels. As a result, a fire weather watch may be needed for this period across central Kansas and parts of south central Kansas. Of note...high clouds are forecast to spread across the region during the afternoon hours which could hinder our GOES satellite technology full capabilities to detect grassland wildfires compared to clear sky days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 307 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Record Highs for today... Site Record High Year Tdy's Forecast High ICT 85 1989 84 CNU 85 1967 84

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.