textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures will continue into Monday before a brief warm-up on Tuesday followed by near normal temperatures for the rest of the week.

- Slight rain chances are possible each night with better rain chances across the area expected Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley with weak upper ridging moving towards the northeastern CONUS. Upper ridging is starting to build into the western CONUS. A surface cold front has pushed south through most of our area into Oklahoma though has stalled over portions of far southeast Kansas. Winds have shifted to northerly with cooler high temperatures across much of the area. Highs are ranging from the 80s in central KS to the 90s in southern KS. As we move into tonight, low temperatures will drop to near normal for this time of year with lows in the mid 60s to low 70s. There is a slight chance for showers and storms tonight into Monday morning mainly in southern KS near the KS/OK border where the better moisture/higher PWAT axis will be. Severe weather is not expected with this activity.

Continuing into Monday, drier air will move in on Monday afternoon as high pressure moves into the Central Plains. High temperatures are forecast to be in the upper 80s across much of the area with some locations in southern KS in the lower 90s. Zonal flow aloft will shift to northwesterly as the upper ridge shifts into the Rockies, allowing another weak shortwave to slide across the region on Monday night as a deeper trough digs into Ontario and the Great Lakes area.

For Tuesday, the upper ridge over the Rockies will start shifting towards the Plains, allowing warmer temperatures to return as above normal 850 mb temperatures are progged. Highs will rise back into the upper 90s with most areas near 100. As we remain in northwesterly flow, another perturbation is expected to slide across the Central Plains. The best chances for rain will stay north and northeast of our area though its possible for slight chances to clip the northeastern fringes of our area as a frontal boundary starts moving south into our area late Tuesday night.

By Wednesday, model guidance progs the frontal boundary to have pushed south through most of Kansas with the front expected to be in southern Kansas by early Wednesday afternoon. This will make Tuesdays warmer temperatures short-lived as highs range from the mid 80s in central KS to the upper 90s in southern KS on Wednesday afternoon. Better rain chances are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger shortwave trough slides across the region, though there is uncertainty, so trends will continue to be monitored. For Thursday and beyond, mostly dry conditions are expected. Near normal temperatures for this time of year appear likely on both Thursday and Friday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s. As we move into the weekend, the upper ridge will strengthen, allowing warmer temperatures to return back to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

An area of low clouds has developed over central Kansas where some MVFR ceilings will linger for a couple of hours before mixing out with VFR anticipated across the area thereafter. Light northerly winds will persist becoming light and variable tonight. An area of showers and thunderstorms drifting eastward off the High Plains may bring some cloud debris (mid clouds in the 8k-9k ft range) into south central Kansas after 08-09Z but the chances for precipitation are expected low.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.