textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms today through Monday morning.

- Hot and humid conditions increasingly likely Monday through Wednesday.

- Chances for showers and storms to increase again towards the end of this week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Water vapor satellite and upper air analysis shows the much advertised upper low spinning over southern Kansas. As of 2AM, coverage of showers and storms was quite sparse with most of the activity focused across northwest Oklahoma into far southern Kansas. The expectation is for coverage of showers and storms to expand and spread north and east throughout the day with more than enough synoptic lift to support at least scattered showers and storms, especially east of the I-135/US-81 corridor. Shear and instability are expected to be fairly marginal, so the chance of severe storms is low; however, a localized downburst here and there cannot be ruled out. Showers and storms may linger well into Sunday night or Monday morning across southeast Kansas, and a Flood Watch will be in effect for much of Sunday across southeast Kansas due to the potential longevity of rainfall in the area. Additionally, as a strong ridge begins to strengthen across the southern CONUS, warmer mid-level temperatures will be advected into the central plains Monday morning and early afternoon. While the signal is quite weak, some of that mid-level WAA could lead to a few elevated showers and storms Monday morning/early afternoon. However, chances of this occurring are at or below 15% for now. There is also a low chance (below 20%) that a few storms move off the High Plains and into central Kansas Monday evening/night, but confidence in this occurring is quite low.

The aforementioned mid/upper ridge will be the primary catalyst for a brief early season heat wave across the area. Assuming much of the shower and storm activity ends by Monday morning, temperatures in the 90s and dewpoint in the 70s will support the potential for heat indices reaching 105 across much of the forecast area Monday afternoon. Even hotter temperatures are forecast for both Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices well above 100 area-wide. There is some potential east of the Flint Hills that heat indices could exceed 110 Tuesday afternoon. A parade of strong deep layer troughs should break down this ridge, and this should support a cooling trend through the end of the week and into next weekend. Additionally, this will also open the door to increasing thunderstorm chances beginning as soon as Wednesday, but confidence is slighter higher for storm potential Thursday and Friday. Confidence in the forecast this far out remains low, but long range guidance currently suggests the pattern could become quite active late this week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

An active TAF period is expected, especially for portions of southern and southeast Kansas.

As of 12Z, a few showers were moving northward across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. Additionally, IFR to MVFR ceilings are holding steady across these areas. While ceilings may marginally improve throughout the day, off-and-on showers should remain quite persistent, especially along and east of I-135. Some of this activity could produce a few lightning strikes, brief heavy rainfall, and gusty winds this afternoon and evening. Central and south-central Kansas should see rain chances come to an end after 00Z this evening, but portions of southeast Kansas could see lingering showers well into Monday morning.

Surface winds should remain out of the south and southeast over the next 24 hours between 5 and 15 knots.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ095-096-098>100.