textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- The heat will continue for today into Saturday (July 4th) with the higher heat indices expected Saturday afternoon.

- Widespread rain and storm chances return Saturday night, with isolated chances persisting into the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Currently, ridging continues to dominate the southern and eastern tiers of the country with troughing situated over the northwest quadrant of the CONUS. Overnight convection has diminished, but a few showers and isolated thunderstorms linger across north-central Kansas early this morning. This pesky activity looks to slowly progress eastward through the morning, with a few showers possibly impacting our central Kansas counties through midday. Additional storms are possible once again along the lee surface trough in western Kansas this afternoon/evening, but with lack of upper level support, widespread coverage is not expected and convection looks unlikely to progress too far eastward.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the lower 90s today. However, similar to yesterday, with lingering cloud cover along the remnant boundary associated with the overnight showers/storms, we may see temperatures struggle to reach their full potential in central and south-central Kansas. For our southeastern Kansas counties where cloud cover should be less of an issue, highs in the 90s and dewpoints in the lower 70s mean heat index values will reach between 100-105 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for southeastern Kansas through 8pm this evening. Heights will increase through the end of the week and into Saturday, indicating heat will continue to build over the Sunflower State. By Friday and Saturday, highs will reach into the middle to upper 90s for many across the forecast area.

Then, a slight pattern change looks to be in store for later this weekend. An upper level wave looks to traverse the Northern and Central Plains on Saturday. A surface low will develop over the Upper Midwest with a weak surface trough extending into the Central Plains. Storms look to develop south of this axis late on Saturday where 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE exists. Strong winds will be the primary concern with this activity, especially if storms can develop into a progressive MCS. Lack of significant shear would mitigate hail concerns. Additional spotty rain and storm chances exist going into next week when the ridge axis shifts to our west and a series of shortwaves progress across the region.

With the pattern shift coming for Sunday through next week and the associated increased rain chances and cloud cover, highs will be closer to normal with temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s areawide. Because the moist airmass will continue to hang around, overnight lows will run a few degrees above normal with temperatures only falling into the lower to middle 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Main concern to aviation will be breezy southerly winds with sustained winds around 15 kts and gusts up to 25 kts. There is a slight chance for some showers and storms to pop up in central to south-central KS Thursday morning into the afternoon, but there is high uncertainty so did not include in this issuance. Minimal impacts are expected from this potential activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100.