textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures continue into Monday with record warmth likely.

- Strong cold front moving through on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday.

- Shower and storm chances increasing for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night with additional chances possible Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show broad upper ridging across the CONUS with a weak shortwave moving into the Central Rockies. At the surface, a low sits over central Nebraska with surface troughing extending down into the Southern Plains. The pressure gradient has increased over southeast KS leading to breezy southerly winds this afternoon. Southerly winds are between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. As we moving into tonight, winds will decrease with lows dropping into the 50s across much of the area as Monday morning approaches.

Warmer temperatures will persist into Monday as thickness continues to increase. As the increased pressure gradient remains over the area, breezy southerly winds are likely again with speeds between 20- 25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Its possible for some areas in south- central to southeast KS to approach Wind Advisory criteria for a few hours on Tuesday afternoon; however, confidence remains high that most of the area should stay below or would be very marginal for a short duration. Given the increased southerly winds and thickness values, temperatures are likely to rise into the mid to upper 80s with even the potential for lower 90s in central and parts of south- central KS. These forecast highs are about 25 degrees above average for this time of year making record warmth likely on Monday afternoon.

An upper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will push a strong cold front through our area during the day on Tuesday. This will result in a range of high temperatures from the lower 60s in northwest KS to the lower 80s in southeast KS. As this front moves through southeast KS on Tuesday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are possible. Model guidance is generally hinting at marginal instability with relatively weak effective wind shear between 20-30 kts, limiting severe storm chances. PWATs are progged to be over 1.25" which is around the maximum for this time of year, leading to a potential for some meaningful rainfall in far southeast KS. Forecast details will continue to be monitored and refined, stay tuned.

Cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds are expected on Wednesday following the cold front. Recent model guidance is suggesting highs will range from the upper 40s in northern KS to the 50s and 60s in southern KS. These cooler temperatures will continue into Thursday with much of the area in the 50s and 60s on Thursday afternoon. Additional rain chances are possible Wednesday through Thursday as another upper shortwave is progged to move into the Central Rockies. There is some spread with models on timing, location and precip amounts making uncertainty high on shower and storm chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Long range guidance continues to suggest a deeper upper trough moving into the Central Rockies Friday night and into Saturday which would bring additional rain chances to the area, though differences in model guidance remain on timing and locations for showers and storms. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

VFR will prevail across the region over the upcoming 24-hr period. Gusty southwest winds will continue over eastern Kansas tonight subsiding only slightly before returning on Monday. Speeds will be slightly lower over our central KS counties while remaining breezy from the southwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1252 PM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

This afternoon, Monday, and Tuesday will feature VERY HIGH grassland fire danger areawide, due to above average temperatures and stout/gusty south-southwest winds. A strong cold front is slated to blast south through the region Tuesday, switching winds to northerly. Not anticipating a Red Flag Warning any of these days though given marginal relative humidity mostly in the 30s percent. Nevertheless, given the fuel load, forecast wind speeds, and above average temperatures, any fires that get going may be difficult to get under control.

CLIMATE

Issued at 118 AM CDT Sun Mar 29 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Monday, March 30th. Below are the forecast highs and corresponding records for our four primary long-term climate sites.

Record high temperatures for Monday, March 30th:

SITE FORECAST RECORD

WICHITA 87 83 in 1917

SALINA 88 91 in 1917

CHANUTE 85 83 in 1968

RUSSELL 90 86 in 1968

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.