textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today. Sprinkles and flurries possible this evening into tonight.

- Next system arrives late Friday/early Saturday and will bring much colder air and potentially a brief window for rain to transition to snow Saturday afternoon.

- Low chances of light wintry precip Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb analysis show a deep layer trough progressing eastward across the Upper Midwest with stout northwest upper flow over the central plains this morning. At the surface, a ridge across the High Plains will slide eastward into the forecast area leading to light winds throughout the day. Meanwhile, a ripple in the northwest upper flow will provide just enough synoptic ascent for increasing clouds this evening into tonight. Moisture at the mid-levels, along with the aforementioned lift, would typically support precipitation. However, the low-levels will be very dry, and most of the precipitation that develops will likely evaporate/sublimate before it reaches the surface. Still, flurries and sprinkles may be possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas this evening and tonight. Precipitation chances end overnight, and skies should clear out by Thursday morning.

The next system that will impact the region will move into the PNW late on Thursday, and cloud cover should increase as the system approaches the central plains on Friday. With stout upper flow over the Rockies, pressure falls will occur across the High Plains as a result. The increasing pressure gradient across the region will support increasing southerly winds Friday afternoon. Confidence is increasing in precipitation overspreading the area late Friday night into Saturday; however, QPF may be on the lower side as the surface low will be quick to translate eastward. Additionally, the track of the surface low will likely determine who, if anyone, sees wintry precipitation on Saturday. A more northerly track across northern Kansas & Nebraska would support mostly rainfall across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. A more southerly track across northern Oklahoma would support the potential for brief window of wintry precipitation, most likely snow, on Saturday as colder air surges southward. Global ensemble and deterministic models have become more consistent about the idea of precipitation occurring Friday night through Saturday evening; however, there are still questions about precipitation type through the event. Regardless, given low QPF and warm ground temps, any impacts from potential wintry precip will be minimal.

After Friday and Saturday, eyes will be looking westward again as another upper trough is currently forecast to dive from the central Rockies into the southern plains on Sunday and Monday. This will likely provide another reinforcing shot of colder air along with the outside potential of a round of wintry precipitation. However, the track of the system could end up being just a bit too far south for precipitation to occur. Trends will need to be monitored for Sunday/Monday's system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Light winds will prevail through the upcoming 24-hr period. Increasing high and mid clouds are anticipated this evening where we could see a few sprinkles or perhaps some flurries with minimal or no impacts to aviation.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.