textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall chances ramping up today with most of the area getting wet. Best chance for heavy rainfall through tonight will be over western and central KS.

- Shower and storm chances will remain for Wednesday through Wednesday night as potent upper low lifts out across the Plains. Best chance for heavy rain looks to be for Wednesday night into Thursday morning over mainly eastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Currently have an upper low digging across Southern CA with Polo still down over central Baja. Meanwhile over the Plains, southwest flow aloft is place. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends from the Great Lakes down through the Tennessee Valley.

Upper energy, that that is currently situated over NM, will quickly lift northeast this morning and will be moving out across the TX Panhandle around sunrise. In response, low level jet will strengthen and veer allowing 850mb moisture transport to quickly increase. This will result in some showers and iso storms to move into south central KS after sunrise and becoming more widespread after 15z through the afternoon hours. BY 00z this area of precip will be lifting off to the northeast with the bulk of the convection tonight focused along the 850mb trough which will be laid out from eastern Nebraska into western KS, which will lead to much of the area staying dry overnight.

Powerful upper low will be digging across the Desert Southwest Wed morning with a strong upper jet max lifting through the TX Panhandle and into southwest KS. At the same time, what is left of Polo will be quickly lifting across eastern NM and into eastern CO/sw KS. By Wed afternoon, there is good model agreement in a sfc low situated over western KS/eastern CO with a strong jet max and associated dry slot also nosing into west/central KS. The most widespread precip during the day Wed looks to be northwest of the sfc low in the wrap around region and in the warm sector where moisture transport will be maximized. So where the sfc low ends up being located will be very important. Currently have a lean to the sfc low being further west than a few of the models are indicating, possibly over eastern CO. This would also lead to the dry slot further west and possibly a wetter scenario for our forecast area. There also looks to be some sfc based severe storm potential Wed afternoon/early evening east of the sfc low as a dryline/sfc trough pushes east. With strong jet, shear will not be an issue so will be dependent on if we can get some clearing east of the sfc low. Where this occurs will be highly reliant on where the sfc low ends up.

A large area of heavy rain will setup on Wed night into Thu morning as right entrance region of upper jet interacts with tropical like airmass in place. The most likely area to see the heavy rain looks to be from northeast TX through eastern OK and possibly into far eastern KS. System will start to quickly shear out as it slides east on Thu afternoon into Thu night and what is left of it by Fri will extend from central MO down into south central TX with the better rainfall chances southeast of the remnant upper trough. So by Fri afternoon, most of the rainfall will be out of our forecast area with precip expected to remain out through the remainder of the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 641 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances.

Showers and isolated storms will move-in from the southwest later this morning as an initial surge of 850-700mb theta-e advection moves into the area. By later this afternoon, this more widespread area of showers and storms will be moving off into northeast KS. We should then see another area of heavier showers and storms develop from central KS into sw KS after 00z. This will mainly affect sites west of I-135 with KRSL-KGBD possibly seeing some heavy rain through the overnight hours. In addition, confidence is increasing that at least some MVFR cigs will accompany the precip tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from this evening through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033.