textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds early this morning then up ticking again for this afternoon, a wind advisory has been hoisted over central/south central Kansas

- There is a low chance for some high based convective snow showers developing over central Kansas this afternoon with brief bursts of strong northwest wind gusts reaching the surface

- A series of cold fronts will push southward across Kansas for Saturday through middle of next week, thus creating a roller coaster for temperatures

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Current water vapor satellite imagery shows a dynamic upper level wave diving southward early this morning across the northern plains. This system is forcing a strong cold front southward early this morning which has agitated deeper mixing of the low levels in the wake of the cold front, thus allowing it tap into strong winds aloft and bringing higher wind gusts to the surface. As a result, we expanded the wind advisory southward for the early morning hours. The winds will decrease some this morning but should pick back up as the day goes on, especially over central Kansas and parts of south central Kansas. Model soundings show deeply mixed low levels with some weak elevated instability residing near the top of the deeply mixed layer due to extremely cold mid-level temps/steep lapse rates. This will be supportive of scattered convective type snow showers capable of brief periods of heavy snow/low visibilities/gusty north winds, mainly impacting eastern Nebraska into northeast Kansas. Models soundings show this same signal but at a higher altitude spreading across central Kansas this afternoon which might limit some of the precipitation making it to the surface, however this could cause localized surges of stronger north winds in the advisory area reaching the ground.

A deep meridional upper level trough pattern over the eastern half of the CONUS will send a conveyor belt-like series of arctic air plunges southward. The first surge of polar air will impact Kansas on Saturday with much colder below normal temperatures expected. It will lead to a cold start on Sunday with early morning wind chills around zero, however the polar air will be short-lived as it quickly shifts east of Kansas with daytime highs on Sunday warming in the 40s/low 50s. A second surge of colder air spreads southward across the central plains for Sunday night into Monday sending daytime highs downward again. Temperatures quickly recover on Tuesday with westerly downslope flow boosting daytime highs back into the 40s/50s. A third surge of colder air looks to arrive on Wednesday/Wednesday night but this airmass will not pack the same magnitude of cold air like the previous two surges.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1054 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be strong northwest winds along with a brief period of a rain snow mix tonight.

Narrow band of precip has been steadily tracking south across southern Nebraska this evening and confidence is increasing that it will affect many of our TAF sites. So for now will just run with a tempo for a few hours late tonight into Fri morning for a rain/snow mix. Just ahead of this band, there will also be a brief period of very strong north winds, especially over central KS, where gusts in the 40-45kt range will be possible for a couple hours.

After this band of stronger winds/precip moves through, we should see a lull in winds, before picking back up late Fri morning. So through Fri afternoon, still looking for widespread strong nw winds, with gusts 40-45 mph likely, especially west of I-135. These speeds will quickly decrease toward sunset. In addition, we will see an increase in cloud cover by early Fri afternoon from the northeast, but confidence is high that cigs will remain above IFR levels.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

The strong northwest winds today will give way to very high grassland fire danger over central/south central into the Flint Hills this afternoon. Temperatures in the upper 30s and 40s combined with RH values not as low will prohibit extreme grassland fire danger potential.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.