textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe storms are possible later this afternoon/evening across far southern Kansas.

- More numerous showers and storms expected late tonight into Friday morning. A few strong to severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally heavy rainfall are possible.

- Dry and hot conditions continue to be expected this weekend into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight an upper- level wave tracking across the Northern Plains as high pressure aloft continues to the build across the Desert Southeast. At the surface, a stationary front spans from southeast Kansas into north central Oklahoma. With this boundary expected to slowly shift northward, we continue to see the potential for a handful of thunderstorms developing later this afternoon into the evening hours across far southern Kansas given increasing convergence amid weakly capped conditions. While these should remain isolated in nature and primarily along/south of US-54, plenty of instability and ample shear may promote strong to severe activity capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. However, it remains unclear how much destabilization will be allowed to take place as ongoing elevated showers and storms observed across portions of south central Kansas continue early this afternoon. If these are able to persist into the evening, chances for activity associated with the surface boundary should diminish.

Guidance over the past several days has been fairly consistent with highlighting a mid-level baroclinic zone setting up over the area later tonight. Showers and storms are forecast to develop along/ahead of this feature as the LLJ strengthens, and with solid elevated thermal and wind profiles at/above 700 mb, strong to severe storms will be possible particularly east of Interstate 135 and south of Interstate 70. The strongest activity will likely be initially capable of producing large hail, though as storms cluster the main threat will shift toward heavy rainfall producing localized flooding concerns.

Storms will gradually shift southeast throughout the night into Friday morning with some lingering activity possible across far southeast Kansas perhaps even into the early afternoon per the HREF/REFS. Otherwise, dry and hot conditions are forecast to return to the area beginning Saturday as the upper ridge builds eastward. Resultant increasing thicknesses will promote high temperatures ranging from the middle 90s to low 100s throughout the area through at least Tuesday. Long range guidance is beginning to come into agreement in a sagging front arriving Tuesday night into Wednesday as a mid-level shortwave races over the Great Lakes. This may bring rain chances back into the area and knock temperatures back into the low to mid 90s by midweek. Stay tuned as additional information becomes available.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to fester over portions of southwest and south-central, within a zone of favorable 700-600mb warm/moist advection. It's possible this activity could gradually make its way into ICT and HUT later this afternoon, but confidence is low.

For late this afternoon and evening, can't rule out an isolated thunderstorm over southern and southeast KS in vicinity of a stalled frontal zone. Thinking these chances are low and activity will be isolated.

Better chances for showers/thunderstorms look to arrive later this evening and overnight across portions of central and eastern Kansas, and persist into Friday morning, within a zone of strengthening 800-600mb warm/moist advection atop the southern KS frontal zone. Included PROB30 groups with TSRA for now to account for this activity at all sites except GBD and RSL. Later shifts will likely need to eventually consider prevailing and/or TEMPO groups.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.