textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible this afternoon through tonight with large hail as the primary hazard.

- Severe storms possible again on Sunday with potentially all hazards possible, though uncertainty continues to be high.

- Mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for Monday through Wednesday with possible rain chances returning late in the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Currently, an upper low continues to spin over Saskatchewan with additional broad troughing extending into the Northern Plains. An upper shortwave is over western Kansas and will continue to shift east this afternoon and into tonight. At the surface, a low is over western KS with a frontal boundary extending from north central KS into eastern NE and then into the Upper Mississippi Valley. An additional low is over parts of western Oklahoma into Texas with a warm front over the OK/TX border. In our area, cloud cover continues with a few showers and storms ongoing in central/north-central KS due to 700mb WAA. As we continue into later this afternoon and tonight, some elevated storms are anticipated to develop across central and south-central KS. Model guidance continues to suggest modest instability with 30-40 kts of effective shear and steep mid- level lapse rates. This would support large hail as the primary threat with potentially severe wind gusts. Given this risk, a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for portions of central and south- central KS. The LLJ is anticipated to stay farther south in central Oklahoma which would reduce chances for severe winds as we move into this evening. Activity is expected to move east/southeast late this evening with storms likely exiting our area a little after midnight.

Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper shortwave moving into the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into central KS by Sunday afternoon. Low-level moisture will increase on Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon which may result in drizzle and low- level clouds especially in southern KS. The warm front is progged to set up in Oklahoma with 850-700 mb WAA ahead and along the front. If low clouds and drizzle continue into the afternoon, this could increase CIN and limit some storm chances. Additionally, recent model guidance suggests the next upper shortwave will move into western KS around 06z. However, a surface low looks to develop in western KS along with a triple point which could serve as a focus for storm initiation. Storms would then move east/northeast likely into central/north-central KS. Better instability looks possible for Sunday with up to 2500 J/kg across our area. This combined with 50 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be efficient for severe storms. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out though better chances would likely be closer to the triple point. Guidance suggests that storms could grow upscale into a cluster of storms moving through northern KS which would transition more to a wind threat late Sunday night. Uncertainty continues to remain high as severe storms and coverage is highly conditional. Stay tuned for additional forecast updates.

As we move into early next week, showers and storms could continue into Monday morning in northern Kansas as the upper wave continues to move east. Drier air is likely to move in on Monday afternoon and continue into Wednesday, resulting in a break in active weather to start the week. Mostly zonal flow aloft is progged to move in late Monday night and continue through much of the work week. Shower and storm chances may return to the forecast late in the work week as upper shortwaves move into the region. Mild temperatures are expected through much of the work week with most of the area seeing high temperatures close to normal in the upper 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Southeasterly winds between 10-15 knots will persist through the afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorm chances will increase from west to east after 21Z with chances diminishing between 03-06Z. IFR to LIFR cigs and reduced vis are expected after 06Z and are expected to continue through the end of the forecast period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.