textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry this week along with seasonable temperatures through Friday.

- Isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm or two may be possible Wed-Thu afternoon but most areas are expected to remain dry.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend and lasting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Currently, a prominent ridge is centered over the Northern Plains and into the Upper Midwest. Temperatures to our north have been reaching well above normal, but we have been removed enough to the south of the upper high to see near normal temperatures the past several days. At the surface, high pressure sits over the Mississippi Valley placing us solidly in light easterly flow. A stationary boundary has been parked across the Southern Plains, stretching into the Southeast with weak surface lows along this feature. Thus far, moisture has been focused along this boundary, keeping us relatively dry.

For today and Thursday, temperatures will remain near normal in the lower 90s as the anomalous heights remain to our north for now. As a weak upper level low develops over the Southern Plains it will begin to lift and wash out the boundary to our south. This will allow some Gulf moisture to lift into the region with southeasterly upper level flow. PWATs will once again approach 2" in southeast Kansas by this afternoon/evening, lingering into Thursday. MUCAPE values across the area will reach between 2000-2500 J/kg each afternoon. This combination could support isolated, diurnally driven showers and storms in southeastern Kansas. It continues to remain unlikely that we would see much in terms of severe weather as shear appears negligible, but we could see briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds with the strongest activity.

From Friday through the weekend and into early next week, the ridge will shift southward as a series of shortwaves over Canada shunt the feature over the CONUS. The upper high will become a bit more diffuse for Fri/Sat, then we will see heights increase to our west over the High Plains on Sunday, and then extending over the Central Plains on Monday. Surface high pressure will set up to our east by Friday with a low centered over the Rockies. As our area gets pinched between these features, southwesterly winds between 10-20 mph will be possible each afternoon for Fri-Sun, further supporting our warming trend. Afternoon highs on Friday will reach the mid 90s for central Kansas with widespread mid 90s for Saturday. Then for Sunday and Monday with anomalous heights overhead, afternoon highs will reach into the upper 90s for most across the state, with 100 degree readings possible. Thankfully a slightly drier airmass will accompany the warmest temps, leading to afternoon RH values in the 30-40% range. This will keep heat indices within a couple degrees of actual temperatures for the end of the forecast period, topping out near 100 degrees on Saturday-Monday afternoons.

A pattern change looks to unfold by the very end of the forecast period as a deep trough passes over the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This will act to squash the ridge further south and west. Heights will begin falling across the state, and temperatures will respond accordingly. Early indications are that by mid week, we could see temperatures closer to normal for this time of year, topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions and light east to southeasterly winds are expected to prevail through the majority of this TAF period. Southeast Kansas will see a few showers and thunderstorms develop Wednesday afternoon during the peak heating of the day with this activity dissipating around sunset.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.