textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly below normal temperatures today with a warm-up for the weekend.

- A few showers and isolated storms this afternoon and early evening with better rainfall chances for Monday night through Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Currently have a broad upper low situated over southern Ontario with a few upper impulses within the northern stream flow. One is moving into the Ohio Valley with another wave diving south across the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a compact southern stream upper impulse sliding across southeast AZ/southwest NM.

Slightly below normal temps are once again expected today. There is some decent model agreement in some isolated showers or storms developing this afternoon and early evening first over central KS and moving into south central KS. The main driver for this will be the approaching upper impulse from the north along with another weak surface trough to move through. With limited low level moisture and steep low level lapse rates, bases for any showers or storms will be on the higher side which may limit the amount of rain that makes it to the ground. We should see an overall decrease in coverage toward or shortly after sunset.

Some frost will be likely over parts of central KS early Sat morning as lows fall into the low and mid 30s. By late Sat morning, upper trough will be swinging across the Mid Mississippi Valley with northwest flow aloft over the Plains. For Sunday, upper flow will start to flatten out some which will allow the surface high to push down into the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. This setup will bring warning gusty southwest winds for Sunday, along with a decent downslope component. So we are currently looking for highs in the 80s for Sunday, which will be around 10 degrees above normal highs.

To start the work week, another upper low is expected to setup over Ontario with a much weak upper low moving onshore over central CA. Ahead of the western CONUS impulse, several pieces of energy will move out of the Central Rockies and into the Plains for Mon night into Tue. At the same time a cold front will slowly make its way across the area. This will allow for an increase in rainfall chances for the Mon night through Tue night time frame. Not looking for any strong or severe storms with this setup. However, confidence is high that a return to below normal temps will be on tap for Tue and especially Wed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 631 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Main aviation concern will be a few showers/storms this afternoon and evening

Currently have an upper level disturbance that is sinking south out of the Northern Plains. This feature is expected to allow a few showers/storms to develop late this afternoon and early evening across central and south central KS. A weak surface trough will also help in shower/storm development. Confidence is high that any activity will be very isolated, so only threw in VCSH in TAFs for now. VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period, with the exception of any storms are can develop.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.