textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above normal temperatures on Monday with slightly cooler temperatures expected through the work week.

- Very high grassland fire danger is likely on Monday afternoon for areas along and west of the Flint Hills.

- Mostly dry conditions are forecast through Wednesday with better rain chances (20-50%) returning late Thursday night through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 152 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Currently, there is weak upper-level ridging over the western CONUS with an embedded shortwave trough over Saskatchewan and an additional shortwave over the Central Plains. An upper low continues to sit over Baja California. At the surface, high pressure is located over Ontario/Quebec and stretches down into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley. A surface low is over Saskatchewan with surfacing troughing extending into the high Plains. An additional surface low is over the Southern Plains.

As we move into tonight, the upper shortwave over Saskatchewan will continue to shift east into Ontario by Monday morning. Additional shortwaves embedded in the upper ridge will move into the Northern Plains. This will push a surface low into South Dakota with an additional low moving into Manitoba/Ontario. In our area, thickness will increase as the thermal ridge shifts into the Plains and the Mississippi Valley. This combined with increasing southerly/southwesterly winds will allow temperatures to rise into the 70s across the area. Sustained winds will be between 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph especially in central KS.

On Monday night into Tuesday morning, a cold front will push through our area, cooling temperatures down a bit on Tuesday. While temperatures will still remain above normal for February, highs are forecast to be in the 50s on Tuesday afternoon. Confidence is increasing for our area to remain mostly dry on Tuesday night into Wednesday as recent runs of models keep the upper shortwave trough and its associated surface low south of our area in the Southern Plains. There is some uncertainty for showers to clip far southeast KS near the KS/OK border, though ensemble probabilities are generally consistent with under a 10% chance of greater than a trace of rainfall.

By mid work week, upper ridging will move into the Plains area with additional embedded shortwave troughs riding the ridge. There is a low chance (under 25%) for rain Thursday night into Friday morning, but uncertainty remains high. A deeper upper trough is progged to move into the Central Rockies Friday night which may lead to additional rainfall chances Friday to Saturday night. Rainfall chances are generally between 20-50% at this time given the lack of model consistency. Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF have shifted the track of this system south, making confidence low on precip chances. Trends with this system will continue to be monitored. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 504 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Light winds observed over the region will gradually become south/southwesterly into Monday morning and pick up by 16-18Z. Sustained speeds Monday afternoon are expected to reach 12-15 kts at all sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 152 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

Low relative humidity, well-above normal temperatures and breezy southerly/southwesterly winds with gusts up to 30 mph are expected on Monday. This will bring grassland fire danger into the Very High category on Monday afternoon for areas along and west of the Flint Hills. Red flag/critical fire danger is not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.