textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for storms late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some may be strong to marginally severe with quarter sized hail.

- Additional chances for strong to severe storms late Thursday through Friday night.

- A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD...

A shortwave trough over the Central Rockies this morning is progged to shear eastward as we move through the overnight hours before emerging over the Central High Plains during the early morning hours on Wednesday. Steep mid-level lapse rates are progged downstream ahead of this feature as the Central Plains area remains in the right entrance region to a 90 kt H25 jet. As the LLJ noses into southern and southeast Kansas after 07-09Z we will see increasing probabilities for deep moist convection. Probabilities for storms may linger through the morning hours on Wed, especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike area. We continue to see support for some strong or even a few severe storms with large hail given steep mid-lvl lapse rates and elevated cape over 1000 J/KG weighted in the southeast corner through the morning hours on Wednesday. A general decrease is expected from west to east as we move through the afternoon hours with a lull expected on Wednesday night.

Shortwave ridging returns in the wake of the initial shortwave through through at least early afternoon on Thursday. By Thursday afternoon, parcels may remain capped to deep moist convection across the forecast area although low level moisture transport will be well underway late in the day. As we move into Thursday evening and Thursday night, another robust shortwave trough is progged to move into the Central Rockies. A developing LLJ may support scattered or widely scattered elevated showers and storms and with steep mid- level lapse rates and the potential for some elevated hailers once again.

A negatively tilted trough lifting out of the Central High Plains on Friday will allow a dryline to sharpen over central and south central Kansas late in the day. Showers and storms are expected to become most numerous along the cold front as it encounters the dry line late in the day while accelerating south and eastward through the evening hours. But other more isolated or widely scattered activity could develop along the dryline as the cap weakens late in the day. This activity may remain more discrete bringing the threat for large hail, damaging winds and even a couple of tornadoes.

Sat-Mon...a stable post-frontal regime is expected to build over the area on Sat in the wake of the storm system with some slightly cooler air anticipated. This cooldown is expected to be short-lived with moderating temperatures and dry weather expected late in the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Low clouds and poor aviation conditions will continue across much of the area through the overnight hours. Meanwhile scattered to numerous showers/storms are expected to develop later tonight across southern Kansas. A few of the storms could become strong to marginally severe with small hail being the main risk from the stronger storms. The showers/storms will spread slowly eastward into southeast Kansas. Low clouds will continue to linger over the region for most of the day and could begin scattering out by late afternoon or evening over central Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will result in a very high fire danger over parts of central Kansas both Thursday and Friday afternoon. However, rainfall is expected to preclude more widespread fire weather concerns. A very high fire danger may return on Monday as breezy southerly winds return to the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.