textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is likely for much of the area this afternoon into tonight as a strong cold front surges eastward.

- Dry and cool for Saturday followed warmer temperatures and continued dry weather Sunday and Monday

- Decent signal for next round of showers/storms to impact the area on Tuesday/Tuesday night with strong to severe storms possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Currently, the mid/upper level trough is situated over the Rockies with the surface low across the western Central Plains. The associated cold frontal boundary extends across western Kansas into the Upper Midwest. Showers and thunderstorms over southeast Kansas are finally diminishing. The thick stratus deck that has persisted over the area is beginning to clear out from west to east as the dry line and frontal boundary usher in a drier air mass. Ahead of the frontal boundary in areas where temperatures have reached into the 70s and some sun has started to break through the clouds, we're seeing CAPE values on the order of 2000+ J/kg in south- central and central Kansas. We're already seeing towering cu develop along the frontal boundary in central Kansas. As this feature progresses eastward, we will see storm development unzip along the boundary over the next couple hours. The LLJ will intensify through the early evening hours over eastern Kansas and as the line of storms moves into this region, we'll see an increase in SRH generally along and east of the Turnpike. It is this area that is highlighted with an Enhanced risk for severe weather by the SPC with damaging winds and a few tornadoes being the main hazards. There is also a narrow corridor from south- central into central Kansas where the dry line is managing to remain ahead of the frontal boundary where we could see a few discrete cells develop briefly in the favorable environment. The cold front does look to overtake the dry line by around 00Z leading to this becoming a primarily linear storm mode. The frontal boundary and line of storms will quickly move eastward across the CWA, exiting the area between 06-09Z.

For the weekend into early next week, zonal flow will take over and a more stable pattern is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will cool off behind the front to near normal, with temperatures rebounding by early next week into the middle to upper 70s. By Tuesday, strong moisture advection from the Gulf will return with continued well above normal temperatures. A couple of frontal boundaries look to dive across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, interacting with this warm, moist environment, leading to a prolonged time frame for shower and thunderstorm development. Given the time of year and the state of the environment, another chance for severe weather looks possible with this activity. There's still plenty of time to iron out the details of this next event. It does look like behind this activity, temperatures will take a tumble once again to near normal for Wednesday. Weak ridging will return for the end of the week leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures once again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 452 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A frontal boundary is traversing the area this evening bringing rain and storms to nearly all TAF sites. The front has cleared RSL and winds have turned out of the northwest and GBD will have a threat for storms for the next hour or two before winds turn northwest. MVFR cigs are expected with the storms, but vis could fall to IFR levels in the heaviest rain. Activity will clear the region between 06-09Z with winds turning northwesterly and cigs lifting across central and south-central Kansas by 12Z. Winds will diminish below 10 knots areawide around 21Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 232 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

We could see a few areas of marginally very high fire danger on Sunday and Monday afternoons but much of the region should remain below those levels.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.