textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances return for late tonight into Wednesday morning, especially for areas west of I-135. Additional storm chances then expected for Thursday afternoon/evening for much of the area.

- Severe storm threat will be on the lower side with storms this week, with the main threats heavy rain and brief downburst winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Currently have an upper low situated over the Northern Rockies with upper ridging from the Southern Plains into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley. Large complex of storms slowly migrated out of western KS early this morning and left a couple MCV's behind as they dissipated. One is moving into northeast OK with another one moving into the Flint Hills. At the surface, stationary front extends from the Arklatex region to generally along or just south of the Red River.

Storms are expected this afternoon across eastern KS into southern MO ahead of the weak MCV. The Flint Hills into southeast KS maybe affected by a couple of these storms. Storms are also expected to develop this afternoon across eastern CO/northeast NM and track slowly northeast this evening. This will be in an area of upslope flow along with a weak upper perturbation lifting out of NM. Some of this activity will try and move into the western flank of our forecast area after 06z as it dissipates, with some of this lingering into the morning hours for areas along and west of I-135, much like this morning.

There is good model agreement that storms will redevelop by late Wed afternoon across mainly western KS as a slightly more robust upper impulse lifts out of NM and into the TX/OK Panhandles. With dewpoints approaching 70, there will be plenty of instability, but very limited shear, along with unseasonably high PW values. This activity will be diurnally driven and should see a decreasing trend after sunset as they start to move into our western counties.

For Thursday, upper impulse will stretch from eastern Nebraska into the TX Panhandle and will keep at least some afternoon and early evening storms in the forecast for much of the area. Airmass will remain unchanged, with high instability, low shear and very high PW values. As this wave slides east, so will storm chances for Fri, with areas east of I-135 having the higher chances. There is good model agreement in a fast moving compact upper impulse tracking out of the Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Vally Fri night. This will try and push a weak cold front into the area and will keep precip chances around for late Fri night into Sat morning. For the start of the weekend, a southern stream upper wave is forecast to lift out of northeast Mex and into the Southern Plains by Sat afternoon and lift across KS on Sun. This will keep at least modest rainfall chances in through much of the weekend.

As far as temps go, we are looking for daily highs to be near or slightly above normal through the majority of the forecast with maxes in the mid and upper 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the forecast period. The area is predominately precipitation-free at the moment. There remains the potential for shower and thunderstorm development towards dawn across central KS, but model trends suggest that potential is decreasing. As a result, only PROB30 is mentioned for RSL and GBD from 11-17Z. MVFR to IFR CIGS are possible after sunrise across mainly south-central KS but model initialization is too aggressive with ongoing cloud-cover, reducing confidence in widespread IFR-MVFR later this morning. As such, a SCT MVFR group was utilized. The low-confidence forecast continues into the afternoon with coverage/location of thunderstorm development. A PROB30 was included at SLN/HUT/ICT from 20-02Z to account for the potential for -TSRA.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.