textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat index values around 105 degrees areawide this afternoon

- Heat index values up to 110 Tuesday afternoon with the highest values across southern KS

- Nocturnal thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night through Friday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

As of 230 AM Monday morning, longwave, midlevel ridging continues to reside across the western 2/3rds of the CONUS with troughing off the west coast and across the northeast US. A shortwave trough was advancing along the ND/Canadian border with an attendant surface trough axis across northern MN through SD. Midlevel heights will increase today across from the central Rockies through the central Plains as the ridge axis amplifies. This will yield slightly warmer temperatures when compared to Sunday as 850 mb temperatures range from 21-23 C across southeast KS to 26-28 C across central KS. This will translate to afternoon high temperatures ranging from the mid to upper 90s across southeast KS to near 100 across central KS. Factoring dew points in the 60s to near 70 will create heat index values near 105 areawide. A Heat Advisory remains in effect from 1-9 PM today for the entire forecast area.

A second shortwave trough, currently entering northwest MT, is progged to dive southeast from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late today into Tuesday, shunting a weak cold front into the area Tuesday. Model guidance remains consistent with the frontal zone nearing the Highway-400 corridor by midday Tuesday. This will set the stage for another afternoon of extreme heat across southern KS with temperatures near 100 once again. Factoring in dew points near 70 will create heat index values up to 110. The Extreme Watch remains in effect from noon to 9 PM Tuesday for areas from Reno to Allen counties and points south. Areas within the post- frontal airmass will remain quite warm with high temperatures in the mid-90s. Dew points behind the front will decrease into 50s and 60s, mitigating the potential for extreme heat.

Mid range guidance continues to suggest central, south-central, and southeast KS will remain on the northeastern periphery of the midlevel ridge axis through Wednesday. A shortwave trough is progged to eject from the Intermountain West region into high Plains late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will result in the development of a surface trough across the high Plains. A strengthening LLJ Thursday morning may yield a few thunderstorms across portions of northern KS. A more-favorable thunderstorm pattern appears to emerge late Thursday into Friday morning as the aforementioned shortwave trough ejects into the Plains with a 45-50 kt LLJ developing across central KS. At this point the nose of the LLJ looks to setup across northern KS and may keep the best rain chances from northern into northeast KS. Additional storms are possible Friday night into Saturday morning as the surface trough slides across southeast KS. The core of the midlevel ridge appears to slide back over the central Plains by next weekend. This will likely yield warmer temperatures and minimal rain chances from Saturday afternoon into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Southerly winds will remain less than 10 kt.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.