textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms late this morning through the afternoon; no severe weather expected

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon; no severe weather expected

- Temperatures near 100 degrees possible Monday-Tuesday with heat index values around 105 degrees

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

As of 2 AM Friday morning, longwave, midlevel ridging continues to dominate much of the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS. A cutoff midlevel low continues to spin across portions of southwest TX, producing multiple rounds of heavy rainfall across the TX Hill Country. The diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms across eastern KS Thursday quickly ended with sunset. Skies remain mostly clear across the forecast area with temperatures in the 70s. A rinse and repeat forecast is expected late this morning through this afternoon. Convective temperatures in the upper 80s to near 90 degrees will be met by late morning/midday. This should result in isolated to scattered thunderstorm development across much of the forecast area. The greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms should remain generally southeast of the KS Turnpike and within the PW axis (1.8-2"). Similar to Thursday, effective shear will remain less than 10 kt, supporting pulse convection with brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning. Upon sunset, the vast majority of convection should dissipate.

Transitioning into Saturday, the midlevel ridge axis will progress eastward into the central/northern Plains. This will promote a gradual warming trend with daytime highs reaching the low to mid 90s. The overall airmass will remain tropic-like with PW values approaching 2". Minimal mixed-layer inhibition by afternoon may promote a few thunderstorms area-wide. The midlevel ridge axis will deamplify across the Plains Sunday as a shortwave trough ejects across the northern Rockies. The ridge axis will deamplify across the central and northern Rockies Sunday-Tuesday. SREF/EPS/GEFS mean 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to range from 4-8 C Monday. This will result in afternoon temperatures approaching 100 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 60s to near 70, resulting in heat index values around 105 degrees Monday afternoon. A shortwave trough is progged to dive southeast from the northern Plains late Monday into Tuesday, shunting a cold front into the area Tuesday. The exact timing of the front will prove critical to temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Areas south of the front will see temperatures approach 100 (heat index values around 105), whereas post-frontal areas will see temperatures remain in the low 90s. The front will clear the entire area by Wednesday with highs in the low 90s area-wide. Mid to long range guidance is suggesting northwest midlevel may remain across the central Plains through the mid to latter portions of next week. This may allow for more-widespread rain chances to return to the area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Aviation concern will remain shower and storm chances for Fri afternoon.

Just like last couple of nights, showers and storms dissipated shortly after sunset. A few showers and storms are expected to develop again Fri afternoon, but confidence is high that convection will not be as widespread as it was Thu afternoon/evening. So for now, will just run with VCSH at KCNU and leave out at remaining sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.