textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers/sprinkles are possible this morning and early afternoon across central Kansas.

- Potential for strong northwest winds on Friday could lead to elevated fire weather concerns.

- Colder temperatures arriving this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows a deep trough digging into the central portions of the CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper ridge continues to meander over the western CONUS. At the surface across the central plains, a cold front has passed through the region, and northwesterly winds are beginning to increase across the region. Deterministic model soundings show just a bit of instability across northern Kansas for this morning. This may allow for a few shallow convectively driven showers along and north of US50 between now and noon today (with cloud tops struggling to reach 5k feet). A deeply mixed boundary layer this afternoon will support the potential for gusty winds around 35 to 45 mph at times across much of the forecast area. Additionally, with cooler air filtering into the region, temperatures will be closer to average for this time of year this afternoon.

Another cold front will approach the area on Thursday, but out ahead of it, breezy southwesterly winds will support a brief recovery of temperatures with some locations across central Kansas reaching 60 degrees in the afternoon. This cold front passing through Thursday night/Friday morning will usher in another shot of cooler air along with the potential for strong northwest winds. NBM probabilities for wind gusts over 50 mph remains around 15-25%, and deterministic global models continue to show a signal for widespread wind gusts at or above 45 mph. Despite afternoon temperatures in the 40s, relative humidity values around 25-30% and the aforementioned strong northwest winds will support the potential for fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. Breezy conditions will continue into Friday night and Saturday morning driving wind chills down into the teens and single digits. A reinforcing shot of colder air is forecast to arrive on Saturday keeping temperatures in the 30s in the afternoon hours, then some of the coldest temperatures of the month so far are possible Saturday night into Sunday morning. Temperatures are forecast to recover a bit heading into next week as both highs and lows will generally be around average for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 531 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

A few convectively-driven showers are possible this morning into the early afternoon hours generally along and north of a KHUT- KEMP line. By 18Z, chances for showers should diminish.

Gusty northwest winds are expected to persist through this afternoon with some sites seeing gusts around 30 to 35 knots at times. Winds are expected to dramatically decrease after 00Z this evening as a surface ridge slides across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 244 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Friday Afternoon...

Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 45 mph and relative humidity values down to 25% will support widespread very high grassland fire danger. Cool temperatures in the 40s may somewhat mitigate fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.