textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog may develop tonight with some patchy dense fog possible.

- Scattered showers will gradually taper off from west to east as we move through the evening hours.

- Record or near record warm lows are possible Sunday night.

- A vigorous storm system will bring increasing probabilities for thunderstorms on Monday and Monday evening, with some strong and severe storms possible.

- Showers with embedded storms may linger over the area into Tuesday before diminishing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Scattered showers lingered across the area this afternoon as a shortwave trough evident on water vapor imagery was lifting slowly northeast across the area. As this feature continues to drift north and east away from the area tonight, large-scale forcing for subsidence will allow shower activity to taper off as we move through the evening hours. With a lack of scouring of the low level moisture, low clouds and fog may expand across the area after midnight with some patchy dense fog possible at times. The low clouds and fog could linger into the morning hours on Sunday and with limited insolation, afternoon highs may struggle to climb out of the 60s for most areas. Forecast highs on Sunday were trended lower while remaining mild for early Nov.

Shortwave ridging will build over the Central Plains on Sunday ahead of a vigorous mid/upper trough building into the Central Great Basin area. Tranquil weather conditions are anticipated with breezy southerly winds developing as we move through the day. Breezy southerly winds on Sunday night will result in mild overnight conditions with lows around 60 for most areas. A record warm low temperature is possible at KRSL with a forecast low of 59.

As the LLJ ramps up late Sunday night after 05-07Z, we could see some elevated storms developing along the nose of the LLJ. Some strong or marginally severe storms may be possible given steep mid- lvl lapse rates and some elevated buoyancy but some residual capping around H75 may limit more robust activity. In the absence of more robust early morning activity, we could see more widespread thunderstorm activity as we move into the early to mid-afternoon hours along a developing dryline in parts of south central Kansas. Rich moisture in the pbl along with considerable wind shear weighted in the lowest 2 km could allow for some storm organization, especially early in the initiation process leading to some supercell structures before we transition to more of a linear mode given the orientation of the deep layer shear vectors with respect to the moist sector. Damaging winds may be the largest threat although some marginally severe hail and a tornado or two will be hard to rule out. The severe weather threat should wane by 04-06Z at the latest while some post frontal showers with embedded storms could linger into the Tuesday before the activity gradually diminishes from west to east as the mid/upper trough translates eastward on Tue. The GFS continues to be the most progressive with this feature.

Mild, above average temperatures are anticipated in the wake of this system as we head into the latter portion of the week and the upcoming weekend. Depending on how quickly this system departs, we could see a couple of other shortwave troughs rotate over the Central Plains bringing low probabilities for showers late in the week and into the upcoming weekend but confidence remains rather low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1213 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

An upper level wave continues to move through the forecast area and will gradually exit by later this evening which should give some improvement to all sites as the rain showers move off to the east. Ceilings should gradually lift by later this afternoon but by the early evening hours deteriorate to MVFR and eventually lowering to IFR in the 6-9Z time frame. Winds will generally be light and from the southeast. Some lower visibility and ceilings are possible by 9-12Z hours with the residual moisture and lighter winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.