textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chances for showers and storms look to arrive Wednesday and last through Thursday night, with a handful of strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Dry and hotter conditions may return this coming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight an upper wave continuing its lift into southern Canada with mostly- zonal flow aloft situated over the Northern and Central Plains. At the surface, a cold front spans from the Oklahoma Panhandle through central Kansas and into the Great Lakes. Showers have developed near this boundary this afternoon and continue to track to the east/southeast across the forecast area. Could also see a few weak thunderstorms try to develop across central Kansas later this afternoon into the evening given modest elevated instability. Despite inverted-v point soundings per short-term guidance, meager elevated lapse rates should preclude severe activity, although brief gusty winds in the strongest activity can't be ruled out heading into the overnight hours.

Isolated showers and storms will look to continue overnight across central Kansas in response to increasing 850/700 mb warm- air advection. Heading toward morning, these will shift into southeast Kansas along with the surface boundary, though coverage should remain greatest across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska during this timeframe where greater column moisture will reside. Additionally, chances for showers and storms will return by Wednesday evening/night as another upper wave tracks across the Northern Plains. Short-term guidance highlights increasing instability mainly across eastern Kansas into western Missouri, and combined with increasing mid-level winds resulting in solid shear for this time of year, strong to marginally severe storms may develop across eastern portions of our forecast area. Afternoon highs will likely vary from north to south, with values ranging from near 80 across central Kansas to the middle 90s across southern Kansas.

Isolated to scattered activity will continue into Thursday morning with warm-air advection persisting over the region. Decreasing cloud cover throughout the day may allow for high temperatures back in the low to middle 90s, though as the prior cycle pointed out, guidance may be just a bit on the hot side considering potential cloud coverage and the stalled out front lingering near the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Another round of showers and storms is expected Thursday evening/night amid more mid-level warm-air advection, and with returning solid mid-level flow and instability, a handful of strong to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out.

Activity should exit the area by Friday afternoon and give way to mostly dry conditions through the weekend. From here, long-range guidance continues to highlight a return of dry weather as upper level ridging commences over the region. This may promote highs in the 90s and perhaps even low 100s across portions of the forecast area this coming weekend and beyond.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 642 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Main aviation concerns will be a cold front moving through along with lowering ceilings and a few showers.

Cold front currently stretches from northeast KS to near KSLN and to just south of KPTT. Front will continue moving slowly southeast tonight, moving into KICT in the 03-06z time frame with winds behind the front flipping around to the north. Some MVFR cigs are in place just north of the forecast area and are expected to move into KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 06-08z time frame and will linger through at least the morning hours Wed. Some scattered showers will be possible along and ahead of the front but confidence in storms is still not high enough to insert into TAFs, so will maintain some VCSH.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.