textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances starting to increase across the area on Tuesday with chances increasing for Tuesday night through Thursday. Heavy rain and flooding still looks likely with the more intense convection through this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a deep upper low just off of the Eastern Seaboard with another upper low coming onshore over Central CA. Meanwhile, weak upper ridging is in place through the Plains and last but not least, Polo is still churning just off of southern Baja.

Just like early Sun morning, we are looking for another round of fog across northwest into central KS this morning. The main question will be how far east the more dense fog makes it and for now will keep with the thinking that locations along and west of Highway 14 will have the best chance to see the lower visibilities.

Still looking for weak upper ridging to keep things dry across the area today. By 12z Tue, upper low will be moving into the Desert Southwest and will allow very rich moisture to stream north from the Gulf and overspread the Southern/Central Plains. At the same time, Polo looks to quickly get pulled northeast across northern Mex. Bulk of the precip is expected to stay to our northwest for Mon night into Tue morning with showers and storms starting to affect the forecast area by Tue afternoon into Tue night, with the most widespread activity northwest of the KS Turnpike. The main driver for this round of heavy rainfall will be tied to strong 850mb convergence with a strong surge of mid level moisture late Tue night as the energy/moisture from Polo moves into western/central KS.

By 12z Wed, upper low will be centered over western NM with a sfc low near the OK Panhandle and a surface trough extending from eastern NE into the surface low. This area of convergence will continue to be a focus for heavy rain. However, as the upper low continue to push east into the High Plains, a secondary area of heavy rain will develop Wed afternoon through Wed night. This will be associated with a rapid increase in 850-700mb moisture transport which will be focused from southern OK into southeast KS/sw MO. Models remain consistent in showing extreme PW amounts for the Tue-Thu time frame which leads to high confidence in very high rainfall rates and risk for flooding with the more intense convection.

ECMWF has come into somewhat better agreement with the GFS regarding how the upper energy is handled beyond Thu. They both now pull some of the energy northeast and shear it out as a shortwave trough slides across Southern Canada into Ontario. This would push the better precip chances south of the forecast area for Fri afternoon through the weekend. Previous runs of the ECMWF were lingering the upper energy much further north to start the weekend, which would result in a much wetter forecast. This will be something to keep an eye on as models could still change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Low clouds in MVFR category will continue to linger over central Kansas through mid afternoon otherwise VFR conditions are expected for all areas over the next 24hrs. Mid-level clouds will begin to stream overhead beginning late Tuesday afternoon. Winds will remain light and from the southeast throughout the 24hr period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.