textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures near 100 degrees through Tuesday before heat relief arrives for some by Wednesday; Much cooler for Thursday

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning across central KS and this afternoon across eastern KS; Additional rain chances Tuesday night and beyond

- Increasing potential for a strong cold front early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

As of 3 AM Tuesday morning, a midlevel ridge axis is gradually shifting east across the MS River Valley as a shortwave trough ejects across the northern Rockies. An attendant surface trough axis extends from southeast CO through northwest KS and into eastern NE. Thunderstorms accompany much of the trough axis from far northwest KS into NE. As the shortwave trough continues to lift into into southern Saskatchewan and Manitoba, the surface trough will slow its southeastward progression. By afternoon the frontal zone is forecast to reside from southwest KS into central KS and northeast from there. Weak convergence along the front should allow for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. MLCAPE of 500- 1000 J/kg and effective shear values less than 20 kt will support pulse convection. Inverted-v soundings yielding DCAPE up to 1500 J/kg will support downburst wind gusts near 60 mph. As far as temperatures go, the airmass will remain unchanged ahead of the front with highs surging into the low 100s across all of central, south-central, and southeast KS.

A secondary midlevel shortwave trough will eject across the northern Plains late tonight, pushing the surface trough axis further southeast. Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue in the vicinity of the trough axis overnight time. Transitioning into Wednesday, the exact timing of the front will be pivotal for high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. Areas ahead of the front are likely to surge near 100 degrees with post-frontal areas in the 80s or low 90s. The frontal zone should sweep across the entire forecast area by Thursday with high temperatures in the 80s for most locations. As the frontal zone progresses across the area, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase as well. PW values may exceed 2" near and ahead of the front, suggesting heavy rainfall is possible.

Transitioning into Thursday night and Friday, zonal midlevel flow will become established across northern half of CONUS with the next shortwave trough emerging across the Pacific northwest. The initial cold front will slide well-southeast of the area with the next surface trough developing across the high Plains. This will return southerly flow to the forecast area. WAA driven showers and thunderstorms are possible late Thursday night and Friday morning. Temperatures will surge back into the 90s areawide Friday afternoon ahead of the next cold front. The cold front will sweep across the area Saturday with additional shower/thunderstorm chances as well. This frontal passage will similar to Wednesday's with southerly flow quickly returning Sunday into Monday as another lee surface trough develops across the high Plains. The frontal passage that many Kansans have been hopeful for looks to sweep across the area during the Monday/Tuesday timeframe of next week. A stout 1025 mb post- frontal surface high will usher in a taste of fall with temperatures in the 70s/80s!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

A few isolated thunderstorms may impact the vicinity of RSL this evening along a slow-moving cold front approaching from the north. The strongest activity will be capable of strong gusty winds.

The cold front will continue to push slowly south across the region tonight and Wednesday. There could be a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms in the vicinity of this frontal zone later tonight through Wednesday morning at all TAF sites except CNU, but did not include mention in 18z TAFs at this point due to coverage and predictability issues.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.