textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Accumulating snowfall area-wide by this evening into tonight; additional round of snowfall late Saturday into Sunday, especially across southeast KS

- Arctic airmass settling into the area with wind chill values as cold as 25 below zero

- Moderating temperatures towards the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, the well-advertised Arctic airmass has overspread the region with temperatures ranging from near zero across central KS to the teens across southeast KS. Factoring in a stout northeast breeze up to 35 mph is yielding wind chill values as cold as -20. Despite this strong low-level cold-air-advection, midlevel warm-air-advection has been increasing throughout the morning and early afternoon hours. Latest SPC mesoanalysis reveals an axis of 850-700mb WAA from southwest KS through central KS. The dry low-level airmass was quickly saturated across central by mid to late morning with snow falling ever since. This WAA axis will continue to spread east and southeast through the remainder of the afternoon and evening; continuing into the overnight. This will result in widespread snowfall overnight into Saturday. The modest to strong midlevel WAA will gradually weaken into the daytime hours of Saturday with snowfall likely to decrease in coverage. In regards to QPF amounts through midday Saturday, HREF and NBM spreads remain quite small with 25th percentile QPF values ranging from 0.3-0.4" areawide and 75th percentile values ranging from 0.4-0.5". Combining these QPF amounts with impressive SLRs of 16-19:1 creates snow totals through midday Saturday of 4-6". One of the changes with this forecast packages is a shift of the main midlevel trough passage late Saturday into Sunday. Latest deterministic and ensemble guidance suggest the trough axis, currently off the Baja coast will dig slightly further south and eject along I-44. This shifts the next axis of snowfall further south and east with southeast KS standing the greatest potential for additional accumulation late Saturday into Sunday. There could certainly be additional accumulation for areas across south-central and central KS with midlevel height falls and a coupled jet overspreading the region. The main question will be as low and midlevel CAA increases, will dry air win out and limit any additional accumulation. As the shortwave trough passes Sunday morning, snow will come to end areawide. A few snow showers cannot be entirely ruled out late Sunday night into Monday morning as a northern stream shortwave trough progresses from the northern high Plains. As far as total accumulations go, the entire area is expected to range from 5 to 10 inches with most areas in the 5-8". Areas of southeast KS could approach the 10" mark if the second round of snowfall Saturday night into Sunday morning includes any banding.

As far as temperatures go, the polar plunge continues tonight as overnight lows dip below zero for most locations. Fortunately, the surface pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the overnight hours. Although light winds will still create dangerous wind chills - 15 to -25 areawide by Saturday morning. Temperatures will moderate slightly into Saturday afternoon with daytime highs reaching the positive single digits for most locations. Factoring in wind speeds up to 20 mph will continue to create sub-zero wind chill values. The bitter cold will continue Saturday night through Monday with lows near/below zero and highs in the teens Sunday and 20s Monday. Again, the northerly winds up to 20 mph will create wind chills as cold as - 25. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from Friday morning through Monday morning.

Temperatures will begin to moderate towards midweek as midlevel ridging approaches the Plains. Highs are currently forecast to return to the 30s/near 40 Wednesday afternoon.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 518 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Light snow continues to expand over central and south central Kansas. This activity will gradually build into southeast Kansas with MVFR cigs likely through much of the period. Some bursts of moderate snow could result in some IFR at times. We could see a lull in the higher snowfall rates during the afternoon hours on Saturday before another round of snow impacts mainly southeast KS on Sat night. Breezy northeast winds will prevail through the period while gradually diminishing in speed

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Monday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.