textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend for Sunday through Tuesday with well above normal temperatures expected for early week.

- Fire weather risk looks to reach very high fire danger levels mainly for Sunday, Monday, and Thursday afternoons across parts of the area.

- Thunderstorm chances increase for the area Tuesday/Tuesday night along with the potential for strong to severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Currently, the trough axis extends from the Northern Plains into the Desert Southwest with a cutoff low situated over southern California and the northern Baja Peninsula. At the surface, the frontal boundary that swept across our area last night extends from the Upper Midwest into south Texas with high pressure building over the Central Plains. Much cooler temperatures are being seen today with temps currently in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Highs will top out in the middle 50s. With clear skies tonight, overnight lows in the middle 30s are anticipated.

By Sunday, the trough will lift out of the region and zonal flow will take over through Monday. A more stable pattern is expected with a significant warming trend taking place through early week. Highs on Sunday will reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and by Monday temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 70s. Mostly clear skies and breezy southwest winds are expected during this period. The abnormally warm temperatures, breezy winds, and lower RH values will lead to areas of very high fire danger each afternoon. The recent rains may help to limit fire concerns some, but fuels can dry out quickly in these conditions.

For Tuesday, the aforementioned upper level cutoff low will lift into the Southern Plains as a trough begins to dig in from the north. The trough will drag an associated surface front into the Central Plains and will interact with strong moisture advection ushered in with the cutoff low on Tuesday through Tuesday night leading to a prolonged time frame for shower and thunderstorm development. Given the relatively potent frontal boundaries moving into a warm and moist environment, another chance for strong to severe weather looks likely with this activity. Behind this activity on Wednesday, temperatures will take a tumble once again into the 50s. Weak ridging will return for the end of the period leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures once again.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

VFR has returned with breezy northwest winds continuing to decrease from west to east. Winds will become light this afternoon and evening before shifting to the southwest at 10-15 knots tonight and Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Warmer temperatures combined with increasing south winds will cause the grassland fire danger index to reach very high fire danger on Sunday afternoon for much of the area. The very high fire danger looks to shift eastward on Monday and mainly impact locations east of the Kansas turnpike during the afternoon hours due to a continuation of warm temperatures/breezy southwest winds. Increasing rain chances expected on Tuesday will lower the fire danger risk, but things quickly dry out and the fire danger could become elevated again by Thursday afternoon over central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.