textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon through tonight, especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike, although uncertainty is high regarding details.

- After a period of mostly dry weather, increasing thunderstorm chances are possible once again by late Sunday into at least early next week.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days, turning solidly above average this weekend into at least early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

TODAY...The next 24 hours presents a low-confidence forecast, with the location, timing, and coverage of thunderstorms uncertain. For today...an MCV moving east-southeast across western into central KS amidst an increasingly unstable airmass may support a few showers and thunderstorms throughout the day across portions of central and eastern KS. If this scenario plays out, strong instability in concert with marginal deep layer shear may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, especially this afternoon. Not expecting widespread coverage with this activity, so most locations should stay thunderstorm-free.

THIS EVENING--EARLY WEDNESDAY...Two areas of thunderstorms look to develop later today...1) across Nebraska and far northern KS ahead of an approaching weak cold front, and 2) the High Plains of far western KS and eastern CO with an upslope flow regime. This activity may congeal into one or more thunderstorm complexes with time and track southeast this evening and tonight into portions of central and eastern KS. Thinking the greatest hail threat will be early-on with convection northwest of the forecast area, with the primary threat being 50-70 mph winds further southeast through about the KS Turnpike, given the hefty downdraft CAPE, especially if thunderstorms congeal and grow upscale. Activity could linger into Wednesday morning over mainly south-central and southeast KS.

SUNDAY--TUESDAY...The upper ridge finally shifts east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS by this weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern/western CONUS and southern Canada. This should allow a weak cold front to move in from the north, with the potential for increasing thunderstorm chances late Sunday through at least Tuesday.

TEMPERATURES:

With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region and the associated influence of Canadian high pressure oozing in from the north, near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week, with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest over southern Kansas. the "coolest" days will likely be Wednesday and Thursday in wake of tonight's weak cool front. As we head toward this weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances through much of this forecast.

Cluster of storms developed over northwest KS early this morning with what is left of them making their way into south central KS. Storms have started to weaken over the last hour with low confidence if they will make it to KICT this afternoon. For now will leave mention out for KICT but will include a PROB30 for thunder at KHUT-KGBD-KRSL over the next few hours. Still looking for storms to develop late this afternoon or evening over the High Plains in an upslope regime, and track east and southeast overnight. Confidence in the exact track and timing of this activity remains very low, especially with how models have struggled with this mornings convection. So for now will just run with some PROB30s for areas along and west of I-135 in the 03-09z time frame.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.