textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms moving-in this morning especially across southern Kansas. Albeit smaller chances, showers and storms will also remain possible this afternoon and tonight, especially across southeast KS.

- Showers and storms will return for Monday night and really ramp-up for Tuesday and Wednesday ahead of a powerful low pressure system. Flooding will be the main risk with this activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Water vapor imagery shows upper impulse lifting out of northeast KS and into eastern NE. Area of showers and storms tied to this feature are also lifting into eastern NE/NW MO. Another area of showers and storms is moving out of the TX Panhandle with this area of convection associated with the broader mid/upper trough slowly moving out of the Rockies and across the Plains.

Short term models look to have a good handle on the precip coming out of the TX Panhandle and track it through south central KS this morning and into southeast KS late this morning and early this afternoon. There will be a chance for a few storms to develop over western OK later this afternoon along a weak surface trough and where afternoon heating will be maximized. Some of this activity may work into south central KS around 00z Sun, but confidence is low on how much coverage there will be. Will go ahead and keep some small pops in across southeast KS later tonight as the mean trough takes its time moving through.

Outside of a few showers/storms Sun morning across southeast KS, majority of the area still looks dry for Sun as brief upper ridging moves into the area. By 12z Mon, there is still good model agreement in a strong upper low digging across central/southern CA with upper ridging keeping things dry across the Plains for Mon. Low level jet will ramp-up and veer across the Southern Plains Mon night setting up some decent 850-700mb moisture transport and associated elevated convection.

Upper low will be digging across the Desert Southwest for Tue into Tue night and at the same time, what is left of Polo will get pulled in to this system and will rapidly lift northeast and will be moving out into the southern Plains by Wed afternoon. This will all lead to continued high rain chances for Tue through Wed. Extremely high PW values, around 200% of normal, are anticipated as this system starts so impact the area, which should lead to very high rainfall rates and potential flooding as the main threat. Models start to diverge after Wed, with the GFS more progressive with the low compared to the ECMWF. However, regardless of which one verifies, high rainfall chances will remain through at least Thursday

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances.

A cluster of storms lifted out of western OK and is now moving through southern KS and parts of central KS. This activity is lifting fairly quickly and should impact most sites for the next few hours, with activity lingering over KCNU for a few hours longer. We should see a break in activity this afternoon behind this initial area of storms. However, there will be a chance for additional development over northern OK/far southern KS around 00z, with KICT having the best chance to be affected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.