textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler for Wednesday with summer-like temperatures for both Thursday and Friday.

- Storm chances will return for Wednesday night through the weekend, but confidence in timing and coverage is very low due to warming mid level temps and associated capping.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave impulse tracking across the Upper Mississippi Valley and moving into the Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, upper ridging remains from the Desert Southwest into the Central Great Basin. At the surface, cold front currently stretches from extreme northeast KS into southwest KS.

Still looking for a chance of a couple storms to develop along the front as it pushes south. However, confidence is decreasing on how much coverage we will see as capping remains fairly strong. By Wed morning, shortwave trough will be tracking across the Central Great Lakes region with another upper impulse moving onshore over the Pacific Northwest. Brief upper ridging will continue through the day Wed and will break down as the northern stream shortwave tracks across the Northern Rockies Wed night. As this occurs, surface high will shift east allowing for the area to quickly get back into return flow. Confidence is starting to increase that we may see a few storms Wed night with the rapid moisture return on the nose of the low level jet. Areas generally east of I-135 would have the better chances.

By Thu afternoon, upper low will be slowly lifting into southern SK with a series of weak perturbations moving out of the Central Rockies and across the Plains. Low level moisture will continue to increase throughout the day with mid 60 dps likely by late in the afternoon. Confidence in storm developing Thu is very low, mainly due to warm mid level temps and associated capping. There is some model agreement in a dryline forming along or just west of I-135, but capping along it and just east is pretty stout. Think there maybe a possibly we get storms to develop behind the dryline in the highly mixed airmass as sfc temps soar into the mid and upper 90s. Also looks like there could be quite a bit of cirrus around, which could also limit storm potential. Zonal upper low will remain through the Plains for Fri with rich low level moisture remaining in place. GFS has a weak stationary front through the area while the NAM washes it out. However, capping will again be a big issue as mid level temps continue to warm. So confidence in development remains very low at this time.

As far as temps go, we will be slightly cooler behind the front for Wed, but readings will still be above normal for this time of year. Still looking for sumer-like heat for Thu, with locations along and west of I-135 getting into the low and mid 90s, with these hot temps continuing into Friday.

For Sat, zonal flow over the Plains will start to transition more southwesterly as shortwave energy start to dig over the Pacific Northwest into the Central Great Basin. This will keep return flow and rich boundary layer moisture in place from central OK through the eastern half of KS. A dryline will also take shape in the vicinity or west of I-135 by the late afternoon on Sat. Due to continued warm mid levels and the better upper dynamics north of the area, confidence in storm development remains low. Western CONUS shortwave will continue to dig across the Great Basin on Sun which will allow surface low to strengthen over nw KS/eastern CO and will also help sharpen the dryline. Just like on Fri and Sat, the main question will be whether the cap can break or not, with better chances further north where better jet dynamics will be located. However, will be an abundance of moisture and instability for any storms that develop to work with.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1043 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Can't rule out a few stray showers/thunderstorms through about 06-08z overnight across southeast Kansas in vicinity of a weak frontal boundary, although thinking these chances are fairly low, so did not include a PROB30 group with TSRA at CNU.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Very high fire danger remains likely for both Thursday and Sunday afternoon.

Gusty south winds are expected for both Thu and Sun afternoon with sustained speeds around 25 mph with some gusts in the 35-40 mph range. Hot temperatures will provide afternoon RH values in the 20-30% range on Thu and 30-45% range for Sunday. On both of these days, very high fire danger is likely for areas generally west of I-135.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.