textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near seasonal averages for temperatures expected rest this week

- Rain chances will begin to increase for Thursday-Saturday period with low potential for any strong or severe thunderstorms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Low clouds are currently spreading southwest across the region early this morning and will linger over central/eastern Kansas similar to yesterday with a gradual erosion by early afternoon. There is some potential for fog development early this morning along the peripheral of the low cloud deck which looks to be more transient. This transient behavior could limit dense fog development or keep it more brief. The quiet weather pattern will continue for central/eastern Kansas today through Wednesday with surface high pressure continuing to dominate over the region. Temperatures will remain near seasonal averages for late September with light east/northeast winds.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper troughing over the western states with an upper wave over the eastern Pacific approaching southern California. Also of note is another short wave near the Baja region moving north. Still seeing a consistent signal from the models with strengthening low level jet transporting deeper moisture from the Texas panhandle northward into western Kansas Wednesday and Thursday. This is in response to the approaching upper waves moving into the southwestern states. Numerous showers/storms are expected to develop over western Kansas Wed-Thu as lead short wave near the Baja migrates northward into Colorado. The bulk of this activity will remain west of central Kansas until Thursday when the axis of moisture/lift shifts slowly eastward. Periodic on/off showers and storms will mainly affect central/south central Kansas Thursday through Friday night. The combination of poor mid-level lapse rates and limited instability keeps strong/severe thunderstorm potential very low this period. Models show second upper level wave ejecting east from the Rockies into Nebraska/Kansas on Saturday with another round of showers/storms. Saturday could experience a slight uptick for instability levels but signal for severe storm potential still looks low. Longer range models/GEFS ensembles are suggesting a more pronounced upper wave racing east across the Rockies and possibly ejecting out into the central plains for early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1035 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Aviation concerns will remain fog and low clouds late tonight through Tue morning.

Still looking for fog and low clouds to develop in a few hours with locations along and especially west of I-135 having the best chance to see IFR cigs and visibility with a few sites possibly seeing some LIFR levels. This will be the product of radiational cooling along with some light upslope flow. Current thinking is that fog and low cigs will stick around the longest along our western flank, clearing out the latest at KRSl-KGBD.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.