textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers/storms ending early this morning

- Stout/gusty north winds this morning, gradually weakening after midday.

- Cooler today and Saturday.

- Well above average temperatures once again Sunday through Tuesday, with record highs possible.

- Very high to extreme grassfire danger Saturday through Tuesday.

- Periodic chances for showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday, and again Wednesday night through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

PRECIPITATION:

EARLY THIS MORNING...A strong area of 800-600mb frontogenesis amidst marginal elevated instability is supporting an area of showers and thunderstorms over southern Kansas. A low-end combination of effective shear and buoyancy will preclude severe weather, although small hail and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible. The brunt of this activity should exit to the south and east by 7 AM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...A strong cold front slated to slam south into the region may support another round of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday, especially from roughly the KS Turnpike on southeast as advertised by the GFS and ECMWF consensus. The overall severe threat looks marginal given a lower-end combination of shear/buoyancy. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY...Model solutions diverge significantly during this period, as a deep western CONUS trough begins to deepen and eventually approach Mid-America. Differences on trough timing and amplitude make it difficult to pinpoint precipitation chances, timing, and areas impacted. Held onto modest precipitation chances through this period given the overall synoptic pattern of an approaching upper trough from the west amidst the potential for increasing moisture/instability from the south. Increasing deep layer shear may also support an increasing severe weather threat sometime Thursday--Saturday. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

TODAY--SATURDAY...Temperatures will get back closer to seasonal averages in wake of the strong cold front. Will continue the wind advisory areawide through mid-late morning today, with a gradual slackening of winds expected from about midday through early this evening. Temperatures tonight will cool off into the low-mid 30s amidst clear skies and lighter winds, with patchy frost possible. Stout/gusty south winds are expected Saturday, which may push advisory levels over central Kansas for a time Saturday afternoon.

SUNDAY--TUESDAY...A return to well above average temperatures for March standards looks to make a resurgence, with thickness values supporting high temperatures well into the 80s and possibly even lower 90s, warmest Monday. Consequently, record high temperatures are once again possible, especially Monday. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support continued stout/gusty south-southwest winds each day.

LATE TUESDAY--WEDNESDAY...A strong cold front is slated to arrive by late Tuesday, supporting another sharp cool down along with gusty north-northeast winds.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Other than a few hours of MVFR ceilings at CNU early this morning, VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours across the region. Showers will exit far southeast Kansas early this morning. Stout/gusty north-northeast winds will gradually begin to subside this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 329 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Every day through Tuesday looks to have VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger due to stout/gusty winds.

The days that have the greatest potential to have extreme/critical/red flag fire danger are Saturday, Monday, and Tuesday, due to stout/gusty south winds and well above average temperatures. Went ahead and hoisted a fire weather watch for Saturday. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Fire Weather Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067-068-082.