textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front brings widespread storm chances today, some strong to marginally severe storms are possible along with localized flooding from heavy rainfall.

- A very warm and humid airmass will support heat indices at or above 105 across southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Another cold front this weekend is currently forecast to bring a much more dramatic cool down along with chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Early this morning, upper air analysis shows a sharp, potent shortwave trough exiting the Upper Midwest with southwesterly flow left in it's wake. A weak upper wave was noted across the southern Rockies embedded within this southwesterly flow aloft slowly progressing northeastward. At the surface, a sharp cold front is located over southern Nebraska and far northern Kansas lumbering its way southward. Both of the aforementioned features will be the catalyst for scattered showers and storms later today and tonight across much forecast area.

A few showers are occurring across northern and central Kansas early this morning thanks to strong mid-level WAA overspreading these areas. As the LLJ weakens later this morning, WAA will wane, but surface convergence will increase as low-level CAA ramps up and begins to push the cold front southward. During this, widely scattered showers and storms are possible across portions of central Kansas this morning into early this afternoon. Eventually, the surface front will sag its way to within vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike by this afternoon. While the front is sinking southward, strong diurnal heating is anticipated ahead of it, and the front is likely to interact with a very unstable airmass. MLCAPE around 1500-2500 J/kg will support some strong to marginally severe storms capable of downbursts producing damaging wind gusts. Some of the latest short-term guidance shows DCAPE over 1500 J/kg across a large portion of the area along the cold front. Model soundings back this up with a classic inverted-v profile indicative of an environment favorable for microbursts. The main limiting factor to the intensity of storms today will be the lack of shear. Effective shear will be in the neighborhood of 20-25 knots, so storm lifetimes will be short, likely producing one or two strong downbursts before weakening/dissipating. In addition to the possibility of damaging wind gusts today, PWATs in the neighborhood of 1.7-1.9 inches will support heavy rainfall. Storms are expected to train along the cold front today into tonight, and multiple bouts of very heavy rainfall could lead to localized flooding in some locations, even with (somewhat) dry antecedent conditions. The cold front begins to wash out by tonight, and the main focus for thunderstorm activity will transition to the mid-level baroclinic zone which will be placed in the vicinity of I-70 after dark. As forcing for ascent gradually moves northward, so will storm chances late tonight through Wednesday morning.

Unfortunately, this cold front will not bring a cool down for most locations across the forecast area, and for those who do see it (locations along the I-70 corridor), it will only be temporary as warmer air surges northward on Wednesday. Supported by a strengthening mid/upper ridge, afternoon highs will rise to the mid to upper 90s across southern and eastern Kansas while portions of central Kansas rise into the mid to upper 80s. Warmer temperatures spread even further north with mid to upper 90s overspreading all of the forecast area Thursday afternoon as the aforementioned mid/upper ridge continues to strengthen over portions of the central plains.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY

The mid/upper ridge responsible for the mid-week heat will weaken rather quickly as it get squeezed between a retrograding upper low over the Gulf coastline and the region's next system arriving out from over the western CONUS. Still, it won't weaken enough to prevent one last very warm day across the region on Friday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. At this time, a cold front is forecast to arrive by Friday night, and will slowly lumber its way across the area throughout the weekend. Currently, mid/long- range guidance seems to be much more confident that this will bring some much more fall-like air to the region. However, it's still 5-7 days out, so this could be subject to change; though it should be noted that both the GEFS and ECMWF ensembles show not that much spread in temperatures in this time frame. In addition to the possible cooler temperatures, more chances for showers and storms are also currently being forecast for this weekend for most of the forecast area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Expect the next 24 hours to be impactful for aviation interests.

A cold front is sagging into the region and is likely to bring widespread chances of showers and storms through much of today and tonight. TAF sites across central Kansas may be under threat of showers and storms through almost all of the TAF period. Main concerns will be gusty winds between 40 and 55 knots with the strongest activity, as well as heavy rainfall causing vis reductions. The cold front will also bring a dramatic wind shift with southerly winds around 10-20 knots south of the front, and northeasterly winds around 15-25 knots north of the front.

Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to build in behind the frontal boundary as well, mainly impacting central and south-central Kansas sites later this afternoon through tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-098>100.