textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this evening into tonight; a few may become severe with large hail and damaging winds

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances Saturday through Monday; best chances appear to arrive Sunday and Monday

- Hot, possibly recording breaking, temperatures throughout the weekend

- Very high fire danger expected Sunday and Monday for areas generally west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As of 230 PM Friday, zonal midlevel flow remains across the central and northern Plains. At the surface an area of low pressure was located across southwest KS with a dryline draped across the OK and TX Panhandle. A secondary dryline/differential mixing boundary extends from near Great Bend through Medicine Lodge and into western OK. The main surface trough axis extends from southwest KS through north-central KS and north from there. Mesoanalysis reveals an axis of 850-700 mb WAA from far southern KS into northern OK. This area has light radar returns and may be producing light rain showers. This WAA axis will glide across southeast KS through the remainder of the afternoon/evening. A very dry sub-cloud airmass will greatly hinder rain amounts.

Further west, the main dryline across the OK/TX Panhandle and the secondary dryline across west-central KS remain largely cloud-free thus far. Satellite trends will need to be monitored through the afternoon/early evening for any possible development. The background environment across central/south-central KS is quite similar to Thursday with large inverted-V boundary layer profiles. Instability is somewhat higher with MLCAPE values up to 2000 J/kg. All of that to say, any storm that develops this afternoon/evening will have the potential to produce hail up to quarter size and damaging winds up to 70 mph.

Transitioning into this evening and overnight, a 40-50 kt LLJ will strengthen across central and eastern KS with the nose of the jet residing near I-70 from 9PM to 1AM. This could be a focal point area for elevated convection to develop. This scenario is supported with 12Z HREF guidance. Steep midlevel lapse rates would support hail up to quarter size and wind gusts near 60 mph. As the nose of the LLJ propagates northeast after midnight, the storm chances will shift north into NE, MO, and IA. Towards dawn Saturday, as the LLJ veers, a few showers/storms cannot be ruled out.

Moving into Saturday, more-cyclonic midlevel flow will overspread the high Plains as a shortwave trough emerges from the west coast. This will promote the deepening of a surface low across southeast CO. Easterly and upslope flow on the northern periphery of the surface low will promote thunderstorm development across northeast CO during the afternoon hours. A dryline will sharpen across portions of west-central KS into western OK with a warm front extending into central NE/IA. Similar to yesterday and today, convective development along the dryline will remain very conditional as capping and meager large scale ascent remains across the Plains. The convection that develops across northeast CO is likely to propagate along/near the warm front across northern KS and southern NE. This would keep this cluster mainly north of NWS Wichita's forecast area. A similar setup will evolve Saturday night as tonight with the nose of a 45-50 kt LLJ will briefly setup across central/northern KS. This may provide a focal point for storm development.

For Sunday, cyclonic midlevel flow will gradually strengthen across the Plains with the aforementioned surface low slowly propagating into portions of west-central KS. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central or west-central KS as dew point reach the low to mid 60s. There remains uncertainty whether convective initiation will occur due to a lack of large scale ascent and residual capping. The conditional environment would support supercells with effective shear values of 40-45 kt. In addition, impressive veering and acceleration within the lowest 3-4 km will result in effective SRH values 250-350 m2/s2. As a result, all hazards would be possible with any storm Sunday afternoon and evening including large hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes.

The most-likely timeframe for widespread convection appears to arrive Monday as the dryline sharpens across central KS, the frontal zone sinks south into KS as a shortwave trough ejects into the central/northern Plains. Model guidance suggests the overlap of strong instability and shear for the potential for severe weather. Additional convection is possible Tuesday afternoon depending on the placement of the aforementioned frontal zone.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will exit the CNU area by 19Z. A few, additional, storms are possible across central KS late this afternoon into the evening. As a result, have maintained the PROB30 mentions at RSL/GBD/SLN for this evening. A brief period of LLWS conditions are possible at HUT/ICT/CNU late this evening and later outlooks will need to reassess.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135 Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty south winds. Southerly wind gusts Sunday and Monday afternoons will approach 40-45 mph. A wind shift from the northwest will occur late Monday afternoon into Monday evening.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.