textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning showers and thunderstorms expected, especially east of I-135

- A few severe storms likely this afternoon and evening with the best chances along and west of I-135

- Isolated severe storms possible Sunday afternoon, mainly along/east of I-135

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s to near 90

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

As of 115 AM Saturday morning, broad southwesterly midlevel has overspread the central Plains in-advance of a western CONUS trough. Lee cyclogenesis was ongoing across southeast CO with a broad low- level WAA pattern emerging across much of KS. Latest SPC mesoanalysis reveals 850-700 mb WAA ongoing from west-central KS through central KS and into southeast KS. Radar reveals isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms within this zone of WAA from western KS through central KS and into southeast KS. This zone will slowly shift east through the remainder of the morning hours. The overall lapse rate profile will steepen with the approaching western trough and may yield a stronger storm or 2 towards dawn, especially across southeast KS.

The focus will shift to a sharpening dryline from west-central KS into south-central later this afternoon. Increasing convergence along the dryline combined with a subtle shortwave trough, poised to eject from eastern NM across OK and KS this afternoon, should allow for scattered thunderstorm development after 3 PM. This development zone is expected along a line from Hays to Pratt. Dew points are forecast to increase to the mid 60s to near 70 along and east of the dryline. Midlevel lapse are forecast to reach 9-9.5 C/km. Combining the moist boundary layer with the steep lapse rate profile will contribute to MLCAPE values of 3500-4500 J/kg. The wind profile above 3 km is quite weak with 500 mb winds on the order of 10-20 kt. As such, overall deep layer shear (25-30 kt) is marginal for sustained supercell structures. That being said, any supercell structure will support large hail, possibly up to tennis ball size. DCAPE values are forecast to approach 1500 J/kg in the warm sector, supporting a damaging wind threat up to 70-80 mph. Impressive veering within the lowest 3 km will create effective SRH values of 200-300 m2/s2. As such, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out, especially with any sustained supercell structure. The lack of deep layer shear is likely to grow isolated/scattered thunderstorms upscale into clusters as the evening progresses. A strengthening LLJ is likely to linger convection into Sunday morning, especially across northern and northeast KS.

The airmass remains largely unchanged into Sunday with a sharpening dryline across portions of central and south-central by afternoon. Question marks remain whether convection will initiate due to increasing midlevel heights and large scale ascent being displaced across northern high Plains. Midlevel flow is forecast to increase to 30-35 kt with effective shear values approaching 40 kt. The conditional environment would support supercells along and east of I- 135 Sunday afternoon. Short term trends need to be monitored over the next 24-36 hours.

The active weather pattern will continue into next week with KS remaining on the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge across the southern Plains/southeast US. At this point, the potential for widespread severe weather appears low. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s to near 90.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A band of showers and thunderstorms continues to shift to the northeast across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. This activity may miss CNU to the north and south hence only PROB30s have been included at this time but the activity could produce gusty and erratic winds as well as drops in visibility due to heavy rainfall. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across central and south central Kansas this afternoon and then spread to the northeast this evening and impact most of the TAF sites. These storms will be more potent, with the potential for large hail, damaging downburst winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall.

Activity should shift east and north of the TAF sites around sunset although a few lingering showers and thunderstorms may continue through late tonight. Low clouds and fog will try to develop early tomorrow morning which could lead to some IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibility. Confidence on seeing this activity is highest across central Kansas but may also impact ICT and HUT as well. VFR conditions will return by late tomorrow morning to all sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.