textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening, gradually exiting to the east-southeast later tonight. Severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding possible.

- Additional hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible Friday-Friday night, but widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected.

- Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last through most of next week. This will bring much hotter temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and gusty south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently progressing east across central and eastern Kansas, ahead of a mid-level impulse, and within a zone of modest 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport. This activity will be capable of lower-end severe weather in the form of quarter size hail and 60 mph winds, especially over far southern Kansas closer to the richer instability. This activity should continue tracking east- southeast into far southeast Kansas as we head into mid-late afternoon.

Attention then turns to surface-based supercell potential later this afternoon and into the evening, mainly over far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a stalled outflow boundary. Strong/fat instability coupled with decent deep layer shear and weak/modest mid-level winds/shear should support a few HP supercells and/or HP supercell clusters along/just north of the boundary, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, impressive low-level shear along/just north of the boundary along with decent low-level buoyancy could favor a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Storm motions look to be east to slightly southeast. Based on observations trends, thinking north-central and northwest OK have the greatest potential for these supercells before about 8 PM, although it will be close for southern portions of south-central KS. This activity should tend to congeal into one or more thunderstorm clusters with time as it moves east-southeast this evening.

Meanwhile further north, continued deep lift in vicinity of a sharpening synoptic stationary front should support a gradual uptick in scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon and evening, roughly along and either side of the Highway 56 corridor, with storm motions to the east-southeast. This activity should be mostly elevated in nature, so the primary threats will be large hail and perhaps some straight-line damaging winds with any bowing segments. This activity looks to exit far southeast Kansas by late tonight.

These two areas of thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and tonight coupled with very rich precipitable waters should support pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially along/south of roughly the Highway 56 corridor. Based on some of the latest CAM guidance, wouldn't be surprised to see localized 3-5+ inch rainfall amounts, especially where storms train over the same areas. Amounts like this would favor flood/flash flood concerns, especially given the very wet soils across the region. Hence, will continue the flood watch areawide through tonight. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...Could have a few lingering showers/thunderstorms across far southeast and southern Kansas Friday in vicinity of the old frontal zone, with additional activity possible late Friday night generally west of I-135. In all instances, widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Building upper ridging will support a pattern change, with mostly dry weather prevailing Saturday through next week.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A building upper ridge will support a pattern change, with increasing heat/humidity Saturday through next week. Given the progged dewpoints and low-level thickness values, thinking a prolonged period of 100-105+ degree heat indices are likely. We will be monitoring for any possible heat advisories or excessive heat warnings. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support a prolonged period of breezy/gusty south winds Saturday through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Low confidence forecast this evening as showers and thunderstorms will continue to move across the region through the early morning hours. The strongest storms this evening will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty and erratic winds. The next issue will be IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities expanding late tonight into early tomorrow morning across all of our TAF sites. These low ceilings will slowly rise and dissipate tomorrow morning into the afternoon hours with a return to VFR conditions by late tomorrow afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.