textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few storms possible overnight; a strong storm cannot be ruled out.

- Powerful cold front arrives on Sunday bringing much colder temperatures, windy conditions, and the potential for light wintry precip.

- Wind chills Monday morning to be around zero across much of the area.

- Temperatures rebound slightly on Tuesday and should remain slightly above average through the remainder of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

As of early this afternoon, water vapor satellite shows a vigorous upper trough digging into the central Rockies. Out ahead of this system, one last day of unseasonably warm temperatures continues as the region remains under the northern periphery of stout mid/upper ridging dominating the southern CONUS. Record highs have already been recorded this afternoon even with widespread and thickening high clouds. This is mostly due to increasing southwesterly winds inducing downsloping across the area. However, the aforementioned upper trough continuing eastward across the Rockies tonight will be the catalyst for big changes to the pattern over the next couple of days.

Surface pressure falls have already begun across the High Plains, and an eventual surface low/trough will begin it's trek across the region overnight. Ahead of the surface low, sufficient synoptic lift from the approaching trough and mid-level WAA along with remaining low-level moisture should be enough to allow for a few showers, and maybe a couple thunderstorms, to develop and race northeastward tonight into the overnight hours. Trends in the environment along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike have shown a marked increase in elevated instability during the overnight period (particularly with the NAM, which has a tendency to pick up on the potential for elevated instability). Given ample shear, if a storm can realize the potential 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, this environment would support the potential for the strongest storms to produce dime to nickel sized hail. As the surface low continues eastward Monday morning, showers and storms will move into Missouri, and much colder air will plunge southward across the area in its wake.

With sufficient low-level moisture still in place by the time the very cold air arrives, rapid saturation of the low-level profile is anticipated across portions of central Kansas. This along with subtle, but present, synoptic lift from the upper trough along with a period of weak isentropic ascent behind the cold front, should allow for very light rain/drizzle to develop Monday morning north of 1-70. Temperatures will quickly fall below freezing allowing for precipitation to transition to very light freezing drizzle and light snow. However, QPFs below 0.01" and very warm ground temperatures due to record warm antecedent conditions will significantly limit accumulations and winter weather impacts. There is an outside risk for slick spots on some roadways, but this will be limited to elevated surfaces across mainly central Kansas with minor travel impacts possible along the I-70 corridor. As the upper trough exits Sunday evening, broad subsidence and drier air will quickly cutoff precipitation chances across the forecast area.

In conjunction with the low potential for light wintry precipitation on Sunday, strong northwesterly winds are expected behind the frontal boundary. Models soundings support sustained winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts around 45 to 50 mph across the entire forecast area with the strongest winds likely occurring within the first couple of hours of the frontal passage. It should be noted that these strong winds are also driving grassland fire danger to be in the very high category. However a number of mitigating factors, including increasing relative humidity, temperatures in the 20s and 30s (and falling), and the potential for light precipitation, will significantly hamper any fire weather concerns Sunday afternoon. The more concerning aspect of these strong winds will be wind chills plummeting into the teens and 20s Sunday afternoon. A brief lull in stronger winds appears likely Sunday night based on trends from several short-term models. However, a secondary frontal boundary pushing through the area will usher in another round of gusty northerly winds Monday morning. With temperatures in the teens and low 20s and sustained winds around 15 to 25 mph, wind chills near zero are expected across most of the forecast area Monday morning.

Continued low-level CAA on Monday will keep the colder airmass in place resulting in many locations struggling to see afternoon temperatures above freezing. Clear skies and light winds will support ideal conditions for efficient radiational cooling Monday night into Tuesday morning which will allow lows to dip into the teens once again across the area. With westerly to southwesterly low- level flow returning, milder air will be transported back into the region Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for temperatures to rebound to around average for this time of year. These milder temperatures will linger going through the end of next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1130 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

VFR conditions will continue through much of the overnight hours. A strong cold front will progress through the area after 09Z, shifting winds from the N/NW at 20-30 kt with gusts near 40 kt. An area of MVFR CIGS will move into eastern and southern KS after 12Z. Uncertainty remains whether MVFR CIGS will reach RSL and GBD. In addition, a brief period of -SN is possible Sunday morning, mainly across central and northeast KS. Have maintained a PROB30 mention at RSL, GBD, and SLN to account for the most likely timeframe. HUT, ICT, and CNU were removed as the best chances look to remain north of those terminals. Wind speeds will begin to decrease by mid to late Sunday afternoon but likely to remain gusty into the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 319 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Very windy conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front on Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 25-35 mph with gusts around 45-50 mph possible. This will drive the grassland fire danger index into the very high category across much of the area on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Record high temperatures broken/tied today:

TODAY DECEMBER 27...

Site Current High @ 3PM Previous Record (Year) Wichita 73 68 (1946) Chanute 74 74 (1946)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.