textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures are expected for Monday with warm conditions expected through much of the work week before a cooling trend into next weekend.

- Storm chances will increase Monday night in central KS as a cold front slowly pushes south with increased chances across the area on Tuesday. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible along with localized flooding.

- Additional periodic shower and storm chances will be possible from Tuesday night through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

An upper trough is currently sliding across the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes as an upper low spins over the northwestern US with ridging between these two features. At the surface, a front is over northern Oklahoma and is starting to move north. In our area, persistent mid-level WAA has resulted in isolated showers and storms across south-central and southeast KS. Isolated chances will remain possible in southeast KS for late this afternoon into the early evening. Severe weather looks unlikely with this activity given effective shear is around 20-25 kts with mid- level lapse rates around 6 C/km, though some gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall is possible given DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg and PWATs around 1.85" which is greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year. As we move into tonight, storm chances will decrease with our area remaining mostly dry overnight. Storm chances will stay well off to our northeast as we continue into Monday morning. For Monday, the upper trough over the northwestern CONUS will traverse into the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon. This will strengthen the pressure gradient in the Central Plains, increasing low-level southerly flow. Breezy winds are expected across much of our area with sustained winds between 20-30 mph and gusts up to 35- 45 mph. The strongest winds are likely in central KS where a Wind Advisory may be needed. Hot conditions are expected areawide as well above normal 850mb temperatures are forecast. High temperatures will be in the mid 90s to around 100 with the warmest temperatures along and west of I-135. The aforementioned upper trough will push a slow moving cold front into southern Nebraska by late Monday afternoon. Shower and storm chances will be possible along and ahead of the front as 850mb WAA increases, increasing chances in central KS towards Monday evening and night. Severe storms are most likely going to stay north of our area Monday night into Tuesday where better wind shear will be, though a rogue strong gusty wind cannot be ruled out in Russell or Lincoln County; however, chances remain very low.

The front is progged to stall out across Highway 50 on Tuesday with breezy northeasterly winds behind the front, affecting central KS. This front will also result in a spread of temperatures on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the 70s in northern KS to the mid 90s in southern KS. Instability will increase along and south of the boundary, increasing storm chances for much of eastern Kansas on Tuesday afternoon into the night. Marginal severe storms may be possible with effective shear around 30 kts. Heavy rainfall is likely with any activity as PWATs approach the maximum value for this time of year leading to potential flooding concerns especially across central KS and portions of south-central. The frontal boundary is likely to stay relatively in the same location for most of the upcoming week. Additional weak upper shortwaves will slide across the region, resulting in multiple rounds of possible storm chances especially in central KS. For temperatures, warm conditions are forecast to continue with highs in the 80s and 90s on Wednesday and Thursday. Cooler temperatures are anticipated to arrive as we move into next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Strong southerly winds will continue to be the main aviation concern throughout the forecast period. Breezy southerly winds between 10-15 knots will continue overnight for most sites. An increasing LLJ will lead to low level wind shear for central and south-central Kansas locations. Then, winds will increase significantly after 12Z, with gusts in excess of 30 knots for most locations during the afternoon time frame. Winds will diminish slightly after 02Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.