textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably hot conditions Monday through Wednesday, with a return to mostly seasonable high temperatures to close out the work week.

- Periodic storm chances may arrive as early as Tuesday, with slightly better chances Wednesday into Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis currently highlight troughing over the eastern CONUS as a mid/upper ridge continues to build over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, high pressure situated over the Plains continues to shift to the east. As a result, light winds observed throughout the forecast area will gradually turn to the east and southeast through the remainder of today. Furthermore, mostly clear skies and a modestly dry airmass will allow for seasonably cool conditions overnight into Monday morning, with forecast lows in the middle 60s areawide.

The aforementioned upper ridge will slide eastward and promote the return of seasonably hot afternoon temperatures across a majority of the forecast area to begin the week. For Monday, locations generally along and west of I-135 will see highs ranging from the middle 90s to near 100 degrees, while areas to the east will see one more day of afternoon temperatures near 90 degrees. Additionally, a tightening pressure gradient developing in response to lee troughing across the High Plains will result in breezy south winds (gusts up to 25-35 mph) across portions of south central and especially central Kansas on Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, a slight southward shift in the ridge will result in slightly warmer temperatures (upper 90s) across southern Kansas, while locations to the north will see more seasonable temperatures near the mid 90s. Guidance has remained consistent in maintaining dewpoints in the upper 50s and low 60s through this period, which should keep heat indices fairly close to dry- bulb temperatures.

Model consensus continues to highlight a potent shortwave traversing the Northern Plains over the next several days which will serve to gradually displace the aforementioned ridge southward. As a result, a slow-moving cold front will trek to the south and east across the Plains. Repeated ripples in midlevel flow along with this surface feature will promote repeated chances for periodic showers and storms across the forecast area beginning Tuesday and lasting through the end of the week. To this point, coverage appears rather isolated on Tuesday with better chances arriving Wednesday morning and lasting through Friday. Strong to marginally severe storms may be possible Wednesday afternoon and evening amid moderate instability and modest shear, though where these develop (if at all) may depend on small-scale features that are not quite evident at this time.

Temperatures during the mid to late week period will likely depend on the extent of rain and cloud coverage as the surface boundary progresses to the southeast. For now, highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southern Kansas on Wednesday before a return to the middle 90s on Thursday. Readings closer to 90 and perhaps even lower are expected across areas to the north over the same timeframe.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Light and variable winds will continue across the region for the next few hours and into this evening. Winds will become stead out of the southeast before turning southerly after 12Z. Winds will increase above 10 knots areawide, with gusts in excess of 20 knots for central Kansas locations.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.