textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures for today, then again for Thu through the weekend, with many locations seeing highs in the upper 80s and 90s. - Chance for a few storms early this evening across the Flint Hills into southeast KS.

- Additional chances for storms on Thursday and this weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

TODAY:

A ridge is building over the western CONUS with a trough lifting over the east. A shortwave is dipping into the Canadian Prairies with a corresponding surface low developing over the Northern High Plains. As we move through the day, the ridge axis will continue to shift further east and will extend across the Rockies by midday, continuing our warming trend. Highs this afternoon will reach well above normal with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s areawide.

As the aforementioned shortwave digs into the Upper Midwest today, it will force a weak cold front across the forecast area this afternoon/early evening. Moisture will increase ahead of the boundary with PWATs reaching between 1-1.25". Modest instability is expected with MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear topping out between 40-45 kts. A window of convective development is expected late this afternoon through the evening hours, primarily in eastern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms are possible with the primary threats being strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail.

TEMPERATURES: WED-MON

The frontal boundary will exit the area to the south by Wednesday morning and temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will be slightly cooler behind the "cold" front, though still 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s. Ridging will primarily dominate the pattern through the end of the week and into the weekend leading to well above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s for Thu-Sun. A deep trough looks to move over the Rockies on Sunday with an associated surface low and cold front sweeping over the Plains Sunday night/Monday. Temperatures for the end of the forecast period look to dip closer to normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected.

PRECIPITATION: WED-MON

A weak, mid/upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of the country on Thursday dragging a weak boundary across the Central Plains on Thursday night. As this feature interacts with around 2000 J/kg CAPE, it could lead to some isolated storm chances on Thursday night for central into eastern Kansas. With shear values in the 30- 40 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and isolated strong wind gusts could be possible with the strongest storms. As we move into Saturday/Saturday night, significant low-level moisture will be in place over the region along with ample instability. As a ripple in the mid-level pattern passes overhead, scattered showers and storms could develop during the afternoon and increase in coverage with a strengthening LLJ. Without any obvious low-level forcing, overall confidence in storm development is low. Then, additional storm development is possible again late Sunday with the approach of the next significant frontal boundary.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Breezy conditions today for all sites ahead of and behind a cold frontal boundary. Southerly winds this morning will turn southwesterly and increase with sustained winds between 15-20 knots and gusts around 25 knots. Winds will turn northerly for central KS sites between 18-20Z and for south-central KS sites between 22-00Z. Isolated storms are possible for southeast KS this evening just ahead of the front with winds turning northerly behind the storms and frontal boundary. Winds will diminish below 10 knots between 03-06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Thu afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon.

Hot temperatures are expected on Thu, with highs in the 90s for areas along and west of I-135. This will produce afternoon RH values in the 20-25% range with south winds gusting to 25-35 mph. This combo will elevate the fire danger to very high, for areas along and west of I-135. The same setup is also anticipated for Sun afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.