textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible early Thursday morning for areas along and east of I-135.

- Above normal temperatures returning on Thursday and continuing into early next week.

- Dry and mild conditions expected through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows broad upper-level troughing extending from the Great Lakes area to the Southern Plains with an additional shortwave over the Northeast. Upper ridging is building into the western CONUS, shifting flow aloft in our area to northeasterly. At the surface, expansive high pressure extends from the Northern Intermountain through the Central and Southern Plains into the Great Lakes. Surface troughing stretches down from Saskatchewan into the Northern Plains. In our area, breezy northerly winds continue with low stratus clouds over eastern KS.

As we move into tonight, northerly winds will diminish, and with low stratus clouds redeveloping in areas over eastern KS, patchy fog is likely to develop early Thursday morning. There is uncertainty in dense fog forming, but HREF probabilities show up to a 60% chance of visibilities less than a half mile for areas along and east of I-135. Trends will continue to be monitored with this. As the aforementioned surface trough shifts east, surface winds will shift to southerly Thursday morning, then shift back to breezy northwesterly winds following the warm front on Thursday afternoon. Additionally, the upper ridge will start to shift east on Thursday, supporting the return of above normal temperatures. Highs on Thursday afternoon are forecast to range from the mid 60s in central KS to the upper 50s in southeast KS. These warmer temperatures will continue into the weekend as we remain under the influence of the upper ridge. A few weak cold fronts will move through the area between Friday to Monday, though temperatures will remain consistent. Highs will generally be in the 60s with lows between the upper 20s to the mid 30s through the weekend. At this time, extended model guidance is in agreement for a shortwave trough to move through the Central/Southern Plains early next week, which may bring the next round of precipitation to the area. Rain chances remain under a 25% chance for Monday night through Wednesday. Trends with the track of this system will continue to be monitored as its likely to change this far out.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at central KS sites through the end of the period, while south central and southeast KS sites may see MVFR visibilities due to fog tonight into Thursday morning.

Models continue to depict fair chances (50-60%) for fog primarily along/east of I-135 beginning in the 04-06Z timeframe and lasting through sunrise Thursday. Decided to hold category to MVFR at this time at ICT and CNU given uncertainty in coverage and how fast clouds currently over the region are able to clear, especially in southeast KS. Will continue to monitor obs for trends and AMD as necessary.

Otherwise, look for north winds currently observed across the region to lighten and turn to the southwest through the late night and early morning hours before shifting to the northwest in the late morning and early afternoon timeframe. Sustained speeds in the 12-15 kt range are expected following this latest wind shift.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.