textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening, and again Monday late afternoon-evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather Tuesday afternoon-evening, and possibly again late Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next weekend.

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

PRECIPITATION:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...In wake of this morning's departing upper wave, large-scale subsidence has overspread the forecast area. Additionally, some convective inhibition near and after peaking heating is noted on model soundings. These factors should tend to suppress additional thunderstorm development through the rest of the afternoon-evening. However, some decent dryline convergence as noted by many short-term models *MAY* be enough to support an isolated thunderstorm between 5-10 PM, generally west of the Flint Hills. A favorable combination of vertical shear and buoyancy would support a supercell capable of all severe hazards with anything that can manage to form. This is a low confidence conditional scenario, as all CAM solutions struggle to develop a storm.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...Similar to today, Monday's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given modest dryline convergence, little to no upper forcing for large scale ascent, and the likely presence of at least modest convective inhibition. However, if a storm is able to develop, a very favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be 5-10 PM generally east of a line extending from Salina to Hutchinson to Anthony east through the Flint Hills.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...This period continues to have the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave approaching from the west interacts with a very moist/unstable warm sector along/east of a sharpening dryline. The degree of buoyancy and shear would support supercells capable of all severe hazards. Of note...it seems the forecast deep layer shear vectors have become a bit more parallel to the initiating dryline, and large scale forcing for ascent is modest to strong. These factors could lead to an earlier initiation and more of a messy/mixed storm mode, possibly cutting into higher-end severe potential.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With global deterministic consensus hanging back the parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. If this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a severe threat, although strong forcing and parallel shear vectors would likely support a mixed/messy storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a reloading warm/moist/unstable warm sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and shear look to be present. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Despite mostly VFR conditions prevail for much of the area through the TAF period, there will be some concerns for aviation interests over the next 24 hours.

Currently, breezy southerly to southwesterly winds will persist this evening and into the overnight hours. Sustained winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots are expected through much of the next 24 hours across the entire area. Additionally, LLWS will overspread much of the area, especially across central and south-central Kansas late tonight into Monday morning.

Lastly, a period of MVFR cigs is expected across southeast Kansas Monday morning, but VFR conditions should gradually return as low clouds mix out Monday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 304 PM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

MONDAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135 both Monday and Tuesday. Upgraded the fire weather watch to a red flag warning Monday, and issued a fire weather watch Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.