textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Snow will develop early Mon over central Kansas spreading south and east through the day before diminishing from west to east.

- Snowfall totals of 2-4 inches are anticipated in parts of central KS on Monday with 1-2 inches possible further south over parts of south central and southeast KS.

-Moderating temperatures on Tue before another shot of cold air arrives late Wed into Thu.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

A modified arctic airmass remains in place across the Northern and portions of the Central Plains with snow evident on visible satellite imagery as far south as northern Kansas (northern Lincoln county). The next storm system that is expected to arrive on Monday was situated over the Northern Intermountain/Northern Rockies region this morning. This shortwave trough is progged to dig over the Rockies through tonight before emerging over the Central Plains on Monday. We continue to see some differences in exactly where this system will track leading to some uncertainty in exactly where the heaviest band of snowfall will occur. Model consensus generally supports areas along and north of Highway 50 for the highest snowfall potential (2-4 inches). Some of the short range model data suggests a subtle shift southward in the track of the system and the Winter Weather Advisory for parts of south central and southeast Kansas was expanded southward only slightly. A subtle trend southward would lend more support the recent runs of the ECMWF/EPS which has maintained a slightly further south solution when compared to the GFS/GEFS with further support from the CMCE.

Snow is expected to develop late tonight while becoming more widespread during the morning hours on Monday. The best lift through the depth of the dendritic snow growth zone is expected to shift from our central Kansas counties early on Monday south and eastward to around the Kansas Turnpike toward midday before shifting into southeast KS during the early afternoon hours. Relatively high SLRs are anticipated for late November, especially across our central KS counties where a deep isothermal layer is progged. Minimal fracturing due to relatively weak winds in the dendritic growth zone and steep lapse rates above this layer is expected to result in a brief window for efficient snowfall production. The biggest limiting factor may be the shorter duration of the event as the progressive trough axis is progged to be east of area by late afternoon. The bottom line: snowfall totals were increased along the I-70 corridor where 2-4 inches are now anticipated. Further south, a general 1-2 inches is anticipated before the activity diminishes from west to east on Monday afternoon. Temperatures may struggle to reach freezing over much of the area with values topping out in the upper 20s.

Tue-Thu..moderating temperatures are anticipated on Tue although for those areas where a greater snow depth materializes, we may be too aggressive with maximum temperatures. Most areas are expected to see highs climb into the low to mid 40s. Another cold front is progged to arrive late Wednesday, keeping below normal temperatures entrenched across the area. Highs on Thu are expected to remain 15- 20 degrees below average for early Dec.

Thu Night-Sunday...Another shortwave trough is progged to sweep over the area late Thu into Friday. There remains low probabilities (20%) for a light wintry mix with this system although confidence in the details remains fairly low. Moderating temperatures are expected Fri- Sat with highs reaching the mid and upper 40s on Sat. This warm-up will be short-lived as another cold front arrives on Sunday keeping below average temperatures in place across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Main aviation concerns will be lowering ceilings late tonight along with snow chances increasing early Mon morning.

High and mid clouds will be on the increase through the remainder of the day ahead of upper impulse approaching from the west. Snow is expected to start at KRSL-KGBD in the 10-12z range with peak intensity in the 12-17z range, where vis will likely be less than a mile at times. These same conditions will gradually shift to KHUT and KSLN as the morning hour progress. KICT will be on the southern fringe of the better snow chances but should still see some vis restrictions after 12z. This system will move fairly quickly and will be east of the forecast area by the late afternoon hours Mon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 6 PM CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>071-082-083.