textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather likely to impact much of the area this evening with heavy rainfall across southeast Kansas.

- Seasonably cool and dry weather is expected on Sunday and Monday.

- Another round of showers and storms could affect the region on Tuesday/Tuesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A cold front moving south across southern Nebraska early this afternoon will provide a focus for showers and thunderstorms as we move into the mid and especially late afternoon and evening hours across much of the forecast area. Early morning showers and storms were less numerous than anticipated yesterday and with abundant insolation and continued low level moisture advection, we expect to see strong buoyancy and moderate deep-layer shear supporting large/very large hail with the initial development while gradually transitioning to more of a linear mode as the front progresses southward this evening with damaging winds and heavy rainfall.

We do see a couple of more pronounced outflow boundaries which could impact the evolution of afternoon convection. One was building southward into northeast/east central Kansas and another was bisecting far southeast KS. These could result in some earlier development which will also be capable of producing large hail and damaging winds with a lower threat for tornadoes, especially as we see a more deeply mixed pbl with relatively high LCLs. Efficient rainfall is also anticipated as we remain within the higher plume of PWATs leading to flooding concerns, especially in southeast KS where antecedent conditions would support more runoff.

The storm activity is expected to move south of the area shortly after midnight while a stable post-frontal regime builds into the area for Sunday-Monday leading to dry weather and seasonably cool temperatures with highs mostly in the 70s.

Northwest mid/upper flow is progged across the area early in the week which will help steer a shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley area while a trailing frontal boundary moves into the Central Plains. This front could become a focus for deep moist convection on Tuesday afternoon. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place with robust deep layer shear and increasing mid-level lapse rates as we move into the afternoon hours. Widely scattered strong/severe storms will be possible into the evening hours before the activity races southward away from the area. Another shortwave trough rotating over the Northern Plains on Wednesday could bring another round of storms to the area while driving a cold front into the Southern Plains. We may begin to see more influence from the mid/upper ridge over the Southern Plains Thu-Fri with rising temperatures as we remain in a stable post-frontal airmass.

Unsettled weather may return as we move into the beginning of the weekend but confidence in the details remains rather low at this time. Another frontal boundary may begin to approach from the north late in the week becoming a focus for showers and thunderstorms while seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A few lingering storms over southern Kansas will shift southward into Oklahoma. Could also see some low clouds in MVFR category over southeast Kansas through the overnight hours, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the region through the rest of the taf period. Winds will remain out of north throughout the day on Sunday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT Sunday for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100.