textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated strong to severe storm cannot be ruled out across southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Low rain chances both Tuesday and Thursday; however, no severe weather is expected.

- Below average temperatures expected for much of the week, then a warming trend is forecast heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Early this afternoon, a vigorous shortwave trough was rapidly progressing northeastward across the central plains and into the Mississippi River Valley. At the surface, a cold front was draped across the Flint Hills and steadily moving eastward this afternoon. There's about 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE ahead of this frontal boundary, mainly across southeast Kansas. However, this robust environment for thunderstorms should be shifting eastward into Missouri keeping thunderstorm chances mainly east of the forecast area. Still, visible satellite shows some agitated cu along the cold front, so an isolated storm or two cannot be ruled out across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening before the front finally pushes through the area. If a storm does develop, the primary risks would be up to quarter size hail, up to 60 mph wind gusts, and brief heavy rainfall. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated. Tonight, a post-frontal airmass will set in across the region, and lows in the 30s and 40s are expected. North winds remaining somewhat breezy should prevent the risk of frost across central Kansas despite temperatures in the mid 30s Tuesday morning.

Another shortwave trough will pass over the area on Tuesday, but much of the forecast area will be goal posted by areas of ascent both to the north and south. Still, a few showers cannot be ruled out north of I-70 and across far southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. Wednesday will be relatively quiet and cool with afternoon highs remaining in the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 40s. Another system will move it's way across the southern and central plains on Thursday bringing another chance for rainfall, mainly along and west of I-135. Initially, this may sound good for many locations across this area that have missed out on recent rainfall. However, as of right now, the heavier rainfall looks to remain out across western Kansas, and any rain that does fall across the ICT CWA will be on the lighter side. Some isolated showers could linger across southern Kansas through Friday, but again, rainfall will not amount to much. On the positive side of things, no severe weather is expected with any activity that occurs Tuesday through Friday.

A warming trend is forecast going into the weekend with afternoon highs rising up into the 70s on Saturday, and potentially the 80s for Sunday and Monday. This warming trend will also feature fairly quiet conditions across the central plains with little to no impactful weather expected through next Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 520 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

LOW CLOUDS...Should see SCT-BKN MVFR clouds increase over the region later tonight through Tuesday, with the best chances over southeast Kansas (CNU), and over central-northern KS (RSL, SLN, GBD).

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...Increasing deep warm/moist advection should support increasing chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms over southeast Kansas (CNU) by early to mid Tuesday morning and persisting through early to mid afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.