textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm temperatures and breezy conditions are forecast through the end of the week.

- Isolated storm chances are possible tonight as well as Wednesday evening. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 242 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Currently, broad ridging sits over the eastern CONUS with troughing to our west. This has placed the Plains solidly in southwest flow, driving our warm and dry pattern. At the surface, a low pressure sits over the Northern Plains with a weak frontal boundary extending into the Central High Plains. As we move through the day, an upper level short wave will eject from the Rockies into the Northern Plains. This will deepen the lee surface trough and strengthen the associated dry line in western Kansas. Southerly winds will remain gusty in response to the tight pressure gradient, with sustained winds between 15-20 mph and gusts reaching 30-35 mph. Later this afternoon and evening, convection is expected to develop along this dryline, pushing east through the evening hours. A few storms, some of them strong to severe, could impact our central Kansas counties later this evening/into the overnight. The strongest storms would be capable of some gusty winds and small hail.

A similar pattern is expected again for Wednesday evening as another shortwave passes across the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. This wave will be slightly further north and also weaker, thus the confidence in storm coverage is lower. Convection will once again develop over the Central High Plains along the lee trough and progress eastward through the evening hours. A few storms could nudge into central Kansas, with isolated severe not out of the question. Then, a slight pattern change might be in store for the end of the forecast period. Upper level flow looks to turn northwesterly and as such, POPs increase slightly for Sunday into early next week. Confidence remains low at this time as the flow looks rather weak and ridging continues to dominate central portions of the CONUS.

Afternoon highs are expected to reach into the lower to middle 90s the next several days. However, model guidance has been overdoing temperatures and underdoing dewpoints recently, so there remains slight uncertainty on where temperatures will exactly max out. If dewpoints continue reach into the middle 70s like the past couple days, highs may be a degree or two lower. Regardless, with highs in the 90s and dewpoints around 70 degrees, heat index values will approach 105 degrees the next several days. A Heat Advisory remains in effect today through Thursday. Heights will continue to increase through the end of the week, indicating heat will continue to build over the Sunflower State. By Friday and Saturday, highs will approach 100 degrees for many across the forecast area. With the pattern shift towards the end of the period, highs will be closer to normal for Sunday into next week, topping out in the lower 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Decaying showers/storms over central Kansas will end between 18z-19z with gusty south winds returning. More showers and storms are expected to develop over western Kansas later this afternoon. Some of this activity could spread into central Kansas between 3z-4z and affect KRSL. Otherwise low level wind shear will develop over central/south central Kansas around midnight and persist into the the early morning hours on Wednesday. South winds will increase again by mid to late morning on Wednesday across the region.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.