textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued warming trend into the weekend with record highs possible on Saturday. Then a cold front brings cooler temperatures for the beginning of next week.

- Potential for fire weather concerns Saturday and Sunday due to warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

- Staying dry over the next 7 days. Potentially through the rest of March.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows persistent broad mid/upper troughing across the eastern CONUS along with a very strong upper ridge centered over the southwestern CONUS. Closer to home, northwest upper flow remains persistent across the central plains, and widespread upper level cirrus still overspreading the region. At the surface, nebulous surface features are favoring light and variable winds today. Increasing upper level heights and rising mid-level temperatures are supporting continued warming today with highs still expected to top out in the mid 70s to low 80s. Modest low-level southerly flow returns tonight keeping lows in the low to mid 40s.

Thursday will be similar to today with ill-defined surface features leading to light winds across the region. With less cloud cover expected along with feeling more influence from the historic upper ridge across the Desert Southwest, afternoon highs will be slightly warmer with most locations likely to reach or exceed 80. Friday will be a similar story, although a more well-defined frontal boundary is forecast to sag into the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Most locations can expect afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s; however, some weak compressional warming ahead of this boundary may support afternoon highs in the low 90s in some locations across far southern Kansas and the southern Flint Hills. More uniform southerly to southwesterly low-level flow returns on Saturday. Downsloping west of the I-135 corridor from these southwesterly winds, along with the primary thermal ridge axis laid out over western Kansas will allow for afternoon highs to easily surpass 90 degrees. Along and east of I-135, some high clouds and a less deeply mixed boundary layer should keep temps in the upper 80s. However, it's still possible for some of these locations to briefly hit 90 during the late afternoon hours. Additionally, breezy winds, along with the aforementioned dry and hot airmass, will promote very high grassland fire danger across mainly central Kansas. The breaking down of the southwestern CONUS upper ridge this weekend will allow for a cooler airmass to push southward into the region on Sunday, though temperatures will still be a touch above average for this time of year. Given these mild to warm temperatures along with dry and breezy conditions behind the cold front, very high fire danger is anticipated for a large portion of the area on Sunday. Continued low-level CAA will keep temperatures close to average on Monday, but warmer temperatures are forecast to return by the middle of next week.

Looking beyond the forecast period, long range guidance continues to suggest the breakdown of the southwest CONUS upper ridge is likely temporary, and that another strong upper ridge will develop over the southern and southwest CONUS next week. Should this scenario play out, dry and warm conditions are likely to persist through much of next week and into the following weekend. It's possible that much of the forecast area may have to wait until April before meaningful rainfall chances return.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the period.

Light northerly winds currently observed across the region will gradually back to the south/southwest through the afternoon and early evening. These will turn around to the west and then northwest Thursday morning. Sustained speeds are expected to remain under 10 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Very high fire danger is still forecast for central Kansas on Saturday due to very warm temperatures, RH values around 15%, and southwest winds around 15-20 mph.

Very high fire danger is also forecast for much of the area on Sunday due to RH values around 25% and north winds around 25 to 30 mph with gusts around 35 to 40 mph possible.

CLIMATE

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Record highs are possible on Friday, and maybe Saturday.

Friday (3/20): Wichita: Forecast - 87, Record - 89 (2017) Salina: Forecast - 87, Record - 86 (1934) Chanute: Forecast - 87, Record - 87 (2017) Russell: Forecast - 87, Record - 85 (1953)

Saturday (3/21): Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 92 (1916) Salina: Forecast - 91, Record - 96 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 88, Record - 95 (1916) Russell: Forecast - 92, Record - 85 (1997)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.