textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temps for today and Monday with much cooler conditions for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday with our highest chances arriving for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not looking for any significant severe storms with this activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently have northwest flow aloft over the Northern and Central Plains with an upper trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes region down into the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from central MN down into northwest Nebraska.

Some weak upper energy is expected to slide south out of the Northern Rockies today which will allow surface low pressure to strengthen over southeast CO. At the same time, the weak cold front over the Northern Plains will also sink south, and by late this afternoon will stretch generally along I-70. Still not looking for any convection to develop along the front this afternoon due mainly to capping issues, with the better storm chances across northern and central MO. Main story for today will be much warmer temps, with much of the area seeing highs in the mid and upper 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 70s.

For Monday, an upper low will dig south across the south central Canadian Provinces and eventually into the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes region. This will allow a stronger cold front to surge south across the Northern/Central Plains, with this feature forecast to move through our forecast area Mon night into early Tue morning. Current thinking is that any daytime convection on Mon will be tied to the front, which will be well north of the forecast area. So our best storm chances will likely be Mon evening, especially across eastern KS, where mid level warm advection will be maximized along with better low level jet convergence. Much of the convection will likely be north of the front. The main threat with stronger storms will be some small hail.

Models remain consistent in tracking a southern stream upper low across the Desert Southwest on Tue with most of the energy phasing with the northern stream trough as it digs across the Central Rockies. This will bring another increase in rainfall chances for Tue night into Wed in an area of strong mid level frontogenesis. As the trough continues to swing east, the better precip chances will also push east of the forecast area by Wed night. Confidence is high that below normal temps will be in place for both Tue and especially Wed. Highs on Wed are expected to be around 15 degrees below normal as readings don't make it out of the 50s. We look to quickly get back into northwest flow aloft for Thu which will get us back to seasonal temps and dry conditions. Warming trend will continue as the weekend approaches with 80s likely for both Fri and Sat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A weak cold front will approach central KS this afternoon, resulting in light and variable winds less than 10 kt at RSL. Southwesterly winds will prevail elsewhere with gusts as high as 25 kt. Wind speeds will relax this evening to 10-15 kt as LLWS concerns increase after 03Z. The LLWS conditions are expected at all sites except RSL where a 45-50 kt LLJ near 1.4kft overspreads the region. LLWS conditions will subside in the 10-13Z timeframe as the LLJ weakens.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.