textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high grassland fire danger is expected for this afternoon and again on Thursday afternoon. A cold front will arrives on Thursday shifting winds to the northwest.

- Below normal temperatures Friday through Monday with a chance of flurries or light snow showers late Friday night into early Sat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Shortwave ridging over the Rockies is progged to translate eastward over the Plains today. Light westerly winds early in the day will become south/southwest and breezy this afternoon as the sfc low deepens over the Central High Plains. When combined with a much drier pbl, a very high grassland fire danger will impact much of the area this afternoon but wind speeds are expected to be much lower compared to yesterday. Above average temperatures will also prevail with highs in the lower 70s for most areas.

Another progressive shortwave trough will emerge from the Rockies tonight. This upper level feature is progged to track along the Nebraska state line while the sfc low tracks along the I-70 corridor. This will allow a cold front to race south and east across the area as we move through the day on Thursday. We continue to see a wide range of solutions in timing of the frontal boundary leading to a low confidence temperature forecast on Thursday. Those in southeast Kansas will have the best chance of seeing another mild day while those in central Kansas should see an early fropa with highs struggling to climb out of the low 40s.

A pattern change will bring near or below average temperatures to the area from Thursday night through Monday. We could see a light wintry mix late Thursday in parts of northern KS although higher probabilities are expected to remain further north. Another shortwave trough is progged to race eastward over the Central Plains late Fri/early Sat bringing additional chances for light snow to parts of the area. There may be a relatively brief period of light snow or snow flurries late Friday night, especially along the I-70 corridor but due to the progressive nature of this feature and plenty of dry air in the pbl, qpf is expected to remain light with only minor impacts anticipated at this time. Sfc high pressure will build over the area on Sat bringing light winds and below normal temperatures. High temperatures will struggle to climb out of the low 40s for much of the area.

Sun-Tue...Below normal temperatures will persist across the area on Sunday. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate slowly eastward as we move into early next week bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures to the area. Above average temperatures are expected to return by Tuesday with dry weather prevailing.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Light southerly winds will last another hour or two before turning southwesterly and increasing with gusts around 25 knots. Winds will diminish after 00Z and remain around/just under 10 knots through the overnight period. The approach of a frontal boundary will lead to gusty winds again on Thursday, with winds turning out of the northwest by the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 205 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Much drier air has overspread the region today and with breezy southwest winds returning this afternoon, a very high grassland fire danger is expected to develop across much of the area.

A cold front will bring a wind shift to the area on Thursday. Breezy southwest winds early in the day will shift to the northwest and increase with gusts to around 40 mph possible at times. This will result in a very high grassland fire danger across much of the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.