textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures for Tuesday and again Thursday, with many locations seeing highs in the 90s.

- Chance for a few storms early Tue evening across the Flint Hills into southeast KS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently have an upper trough stretching from Quebec down through the Great Lakes region and into the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a compact upper impulse tracking across the Arklatex region. Over the western CONUS, upper ridging is in place from the Desert Southwest into the Central Rockies with some shortwave energy emerging out of the Northern Rockies.

The energy over the Northern Rockies will continue tracking quickly east and will move over the Northern Plains tonight and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tue morning. This will allow a cold front to push south and by 21z Tue will be located generally northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. Storms are expected to initially develop along the front over MO into eastern KS and will attempt to continue developing west into the Flint Hills and southeast KS after 00z. Due to capping issues, not expecting a large number of storms, with only a few expected. Hail will remain the main threat with storms given good directional shear.

Upper ridging will slide over the Plains for Wed as the upper trough departs across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. For Wed night into Thu, another shortwave is expected to lift out of the Pacific Northwest and across the Northern Rockies with some weaker pieces of energy moving out of the Central Rockie and into KS. This setup will strengthen lee troughing and allow for the Plains to quickly get back into return flow. While it cannot be ruled out, confidence is still too low to run with daytime storm chances on Thu, mainly due to increasing mid level temps and related capping issues. Better storm chances look to be Thu night over mainly eastern KS into MO.

As far as temps go, we are looking for highs on Tue to be around 10- 15 degrees above normal, with some locations across south central and central KS getting into the low 90s. After a brief cool down Wed, we will get back into the heat for Thu, with widespread 90s likely.

For Fri, some differences in the medium range models start to show up, with the GFS more agressive in pushing a cold front through while the ECMWF keeps the front north of the forecast area. On Sat, there is good agreement that rich low level moisture will be in place, but warm mid level temps will remain and there isn't much of a defined surface boundary around. So confidence in storm development is again low. Even if a storm would develop across OK or southern KS on Sat, the better mid/upper winds are well north of the area. Confidence with temps is much higher this weekend, with above normal readings likely for both Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds at 8-12 kt will continue this afternoon with a few gusts near 20 kt across central KS. LLWS concerns increase across central KS by 06Z as a 45-50 kt LLJ near 1.4 kft overspreads the area. LLWS concerns diminish by 13Z as southerly winds increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. A weak cold front will move into central KS after sunrise Tuesday, shifting winds from the west and eventually the northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Thu afternoon and again on Sunday afternoon.

Hot temperatures are expected on Thu, with highs in the 90s for areas along and west of I-135. This will produce afternoon RH values in the 25-30% range with south winds gusting to 35-40 mph. This combo will elevate the fire danger to very high, for areas along and west of I-135. The same setup is also anticipated for Sun afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.