textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms with locally heavy rain will impact the area today with scattered showers/storms tonight into early Friday.

- The potential for strong and severe storms is increasing late in the week a into the weekend (FRI-SUN).

- Seasonable temperatures are anticipated through the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A shortwave trough over the Southern Plains is progged to rotate northward over the area today bringing more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to the area. We remain in a very high PWAT airmass and with repeated rounds of showers/storms we could see some locally heavy rainfall develop over parts of south central and central KS. Given weak mid-level lapse rates/deep layer shear, strong or severe storms are not anticipated but we may see some heavy rain and localized flooding concerns. HREF neighborhood probabilities of receiving greater than 2 inches of rain is around 70 percent across parts of central/south central KS along the I-135 corridor. The corridor of heavier rain may shift north of the area tonight but some scattered showers/storms may linger or redevelop as the upper low moves slowly northward through the period.

The short range models have come into better agreement with translating the western CONUS mid/upper trough eastward as we move through the day on Friday. Meanwhile, a lead shortwave trough rotating out of the Southern Rockies ahead of this system will approach the Central Plains late in the day. We could see a diffuse dryline/warm frontal segment become a focus for afternoon showers and storms during the afternoon hours but there could be some capping concerns with subsidence in the wake of the lead trough. Some increase in deep layer shear and steepening mid-level lapse rates would allow for some storm organization bringing a threat for a few strong/severe storms late in the day and into the evening hours if storms can manage to develop as rich low level moisture lings across the area.

Sat...The western CONUS mid/upper trough is progged to move into the Rockies while skirting the Central High Plains late in the day. The dryline across central KS is progged to sharpen in the afternoon hours becoming a focus for showers and thunderstorms. We continue to see some potential for strong/severe storms to develop after 21Z along the dryline with steep mid-level lapse rates and 35 knots of deep layer shear supporting more organized deep moist convection. This activity will linger into the evening hours with a continuation of rich moisture in the warm sector.

As we move into Sunday, the mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the area which may inhibit more robust convection, but it will be hard to rule out isolated or widely scattered storms developing along the dryline once again late in the day and into the evening/overnight hours as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up and noses into central KS.

Mon-Wed...As the previous shift mentioned, confidence in the thunderstorm forecast remains low as we move into early next week. We continue to see some support for diurnally driven activity as we remain in a buoyant airmass, although some increasing influence from the developing upper ridge may inhibit more widespread activity.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu May 28 2026

A very moist airmass remains in place across the region with showers and widespread MVFR. Numerous showers and more isolated thunderstorms will linger through much of the day impacting all terminals. We could see some IFR at times today while becoming more widespread tonight across much if not all of the area. Light easterly winds will prevail through the period, but may become erratic near the stronger shower and storm activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.