textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- High wind event still looks on track for Thursday with northwest wind gusts around 60 mph likely along I-70, with gusts 50-55 for the remainder of the area.

- Strong winds will elevate the grassland fire danger on Thursday with extreme values likely. Any fire that starts Thursday will spread rapidly.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures are expected through all of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Water vapor imagery currently shows a vort max tracking out of the Pacific Northwest and approaching the Northern Rockies with a much weaker upper impulse form Northern Mex into southeast TX. At the surface, lee troughing has started to strengthen over the Northern High Plains with high pressure over the Southeast CONUS.

Powerful shortwave will continue quickly tracking east and by early Thu morning will be moving out into the Northern Plains. Cold front will start to move through western KS around or shortly after midnight. We could see a brief uptick in nw winds right behind the front across central KS around 09z with gusts to 50 mph possible. However, these higher speeds will only last an hour or two with the main show still a few hours off.

By 15z, deep surface low will be positioned across Northern MN with very strong northwest winds overspreading the western half of Nebraska along with northwest KS. 12z model runs have continued the trend of increasing wind speeds from previous runs which does lead to increased confidence in high wind warning criteria over central KS. Gusts to 60 mph will be common across central KS starting around 15z and continue through most of the afternoon. Further south, 50-55 mph gusts will be possible. In addition, blowing dust will likely accompany the stronger wind gusts, especially across central KS. This could make driving very dangerous along I-70, especially for areas west of Salina.

As far as headlines changes, flipped the high wind watch to a warning and expanded east. Also pulled it back to 08z to account for the brief increase as the front moves through. Also flipped the fire weather watch to a red flag warning.

Pattern will remain very progressive and by Thu evening, shortwave will be moving across the Great Lakes with a brief period of surface high pressure over the Plains. Upper zonal flow will get the Plains back into some return flow for Fri with gusty southwest winds by the afternoon hours with gusts in the 35 to 40 mph range possible. For Fri night into early Sat morning, upper shortwave will slide across Southern SK/MB and northern Plains. This will allow a cold front to move through the forecast area on Sat afternoon. We will get right back into zonal flow aloft to start the work week, with some upper ridging building-in across the southern Plains and eventually into the Central Plains by mid week. This will keep temps well above normal through Christmas.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Winds will increase tonight as a cold front pushes southward across the region. Low clouds over eastern Oklahoma will spread northward and impact CNU TAF site from the late afternoon and evening hours with possible IFR cigs. Northwest winds will increase behind the frontal passage late tonight and really ramp up during the mid morning hours over central Kansas. Wind gusts over 45kts from the northwest will be possible after 15z across central Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Extreme fire danger likely across most of the area on Thursday with very high fire danger possible on Friday.

Northwest winds will quickly increase late Thu morning with gusts in the 50 to 60 mph range likely by the early afternoon, with the higher speeds over central KS. By the early afternoon, RH values are forecast to be in the 20-30% range with the lower end of these values for locations west of I-135. Any fires that start on Thursday will be difficult to control, especially across central KS where winds will be slightly stronger.

For Friday, winds will flip around to the southwest with gusts in the 30-40 mph range possible during the afternoon. Afternoon RH values will be in the 25 to 30% range and will combine with the winds to produce very high grassland fire danger for much of the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ032- 033-047>053. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ032- 033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. Wind Advisory from 2 AM to 6 PM CST Thursday for KSZ067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100.