textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy and mild weather supporting elevated grassfire danger today through Tuesday.

- Record warmth possible Monday.

- Sharp cool down by Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Increasing shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Additional periodic chances Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

PRECIPITATION:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic consensus bring another strong cold front into the region, which may support a round of showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday, especially from roughly the KS Turnpike on southeast. The overall severe thunderstorm threat looks low due to a marginal combination of deep layer shear and buoyancy. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT--FRIDAY...Model solutions diverge significantly during this period, as a deep western CONUS trough begins to deepen and eventually approach Mid-America. Differences on trough timing and amplitude make it difficult to pinpoint precipitation chances, timing, and areas impacted. Held onto modest precipitation chances through this period given the overall synoptic pattern of an approaching upper trough from the west amidst the potential for increasing moisture/instability from the south. Increasing deep layer shear may also support an increasing severe weather threat Friday--Saturday. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

TODAY--MONDAY...Building atmospheric thickness and increasing southerly low-level flow will support a return to well above average temperatures, especially Sunday and Monday, when thickness values support high temperatures well into the 80s and even lower 90s, warmest Monday. Consequently, record high temperatures are once again possible, especially Monday. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support continued stout/gusty south-southwest winds each day. Will continue the inherited wind advisory over central Kansas today 11AM--7PM.

TUESDAY--SATURDAY...A strong cold front is slated to arrive from the north on Tuesday, supporting another sharp cool down along with stout/gusty north-northeast winds. These cooler temperatures should persist through Wednesday and possibly Thursday, before model consensus supports another modest warm up Friday. Finally, model consensus brings another sharp cool down by Saturday, with increasing gusty north-northwest winds in wake of a strong cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24hrs. Meanwhile gusty south winds will affect central and south central Kansas through the afternoon hours today. Winds will decrease a bit around sunset with low level wind shear expected later tonight into the the morning hours on Sunday for SLN,HUT,ICT and CNU taf sites.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Every day through Tuesday looks to have VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger. The days that have the greatest potential to have extreme/critical/red flag fire danger are today over central Kansas, and possibly Monday areawide, due to stout/gusty south winds and above average temperatures. A strong cold front is slated to blast south through the region Tuesday, switching winds to northerly.

Will continue with the inherited Red Flag Warning across central KS today, and will be monitoring for a possible Fire Weather Watch for Monday, although marginal relative humidity mostly in the 30s percent may prevent widespread red flag conditions Monday. Stay tuned as we continue to refine the forecast.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Monday, March 30th. Below are the forecast and corresponding records for our four primary long-term climate sites.

Record high temperatures for Monday, March 30th:

SITE FORECAST RECORD

WICHITA 88 83 in 1917

SALINA 90 91 in 1917

CHANUTE 84 83 in 1968

RUSSELL 91 86 in 1968

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067-068-082. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>051.