textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry this week along with seasonable temperatures through Friday.

- Isolated showers and perhaps a rogue thunderstorm or two may be possible Wed-Thu afternoon but most areas are expected to remain dry.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Currently, a stout ridge is centered over the CONUS with weak troughing on either coast. The upper level high is centered over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest with light easterly flow through the column over the Central Plains. At the surface, a broad high pressure extends from the Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley, a weak low pressure is placed over the Rockies. A relatively drier airmass remains in place over the state with PWATs in the 1-1.25" range. This is keeping dewpoints in the lower to middle 60s across the forecast area and limiting cloud cover.

Seasonably quiet weather is expected today and tonight with high pressure dominating the pattern. Light easterly winds, partly cloudy skies, and temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s are expected for this afternoon. The ridge will remain centered over the Northern Plains, focusing the elevated temperature anomalies to our north. By Wednesday, while temperatures will remain steady in the lower 90s, a weak upper level low will nudge into the Southern Plains and allow some Gulf moisture to lift into the region with southeasterly upper level flow. PWATs will once again approach 2" in southeast Kansas by Wednesday afternoon/evening. This could support an isolated shower or storm to develop in southeastern Kansas. Confidence remains low for our area seeing any severe weather as the forcing and shear are weak, but higher confidence exists for locations south and east of the forecast area.

For the end of the week and into the weekend, the ridge will shift southward as a series of shortwaves over Canada shunt the feature over the CONUS. The upper high will pass over the region on Saturday before settling over the High Plains by Sunday. High temperatures for the end of the week will creep higher with the ridge center closer. Surface high pressure will set up to our east with a low centered over the Rockies. As our area gets pinched between these features, southwesterly winds between 15-20 mph will be possible each afternoon, further supporting our warming trend. Afternoon highs on Friday will reach the mid 90s for central Kansas with widespread mid 90s for Saturday. Then for Sunday and Monday with anomalous heights overhead, afternoon highs will reach into the upper 90s for most across the state. Thankfully a slightly drier airmass will accompany the warmest temps, leading to afternoon RH values in the 30-40% range. This will keep heat indices within a couple degrees of actual temperatures for the end of the forecast period, topping out near 100 degrees on Saturday- Monday afternoons.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

VFR conditions areawide through the forecast period. Light easterly to southeasterly winds may reach near 10 knots for central Kansas locations this afternoon. Otherwise, just a few clouds and dry conditions are expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.