textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong/severe storms could affect parts of central Kansas by late evening

- The heat will continue for Thursday into Saturday(July 4th) with the higher heat indices expected that holiday afternoon

DISCUSSION

Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Fairly similar to yesterday's setup with storms expected to develop over western Kansas later this afternoon/evening and spread eastward towards central Kansas by late evening. Wind shear remains weak aloft, however there is potential for isolated stronger storms to produce damaging downburst winds given modest DCAPE. The activity will become weaker after midnight and could linger into the morning hours on Thursday with-in the higher precipitable water axis. Otherwise mainly dry weather expected for Thursday into Friday with heat persisting. Heat indices above 100 are likely to continue for mainly south central/southeast Kansas Thursday- Saturday with an extension to the Heat Advisory likely needed. Some locations in southeast Kansas could see heat indices around 105 degrees by Saturday(July 4th) afternoon.

Models continue to show upper level flow flattening out becoming more zonal for Saturday/Saturday night with a upper level wave ejecting from the Rockies out into the central plains Saturday night. Thunderstorms would be favored to initiate with-in the low level moisture upslope flow regime late Saturday afternoon/night, however model placement for this upslope moisture axis varies between GFS/ECMWF models. The most likely scenario is for storms to initiate west or northwest of central Kansas Saturday afternoon/evening with an east/southeast track at night. There is potential for some of the storms to produce strong to damaging winds Saturday night across central Kansas. The activity could linger into Sunday morning with a cold front pushing southward into Kansas. Longer range models are suggesting shower/storm chances extending into early next week with a loitering upper level wave. Severe weather chances for the Sunday into early next week period at this time are looking low due to weaker wind speeds aloft.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms this evening across central KS.

Just like last night, storms have developed across southeast CO/sw KS and are tracking off to the northeast. This activity will start to approach KRSL-KGBD after 03z with low confidence if they will make it that far east. So for now just ran with a prob30 at KRSL-KGBD. Outside of storms, confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100.