textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will continue into the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Currently have strong northwest flow aloft through the Plains with sharp upper ridging from the Desert Southwest into the Great Basin. At the surface, a trough/wind shift stretches from northeast KS into western OK with high pressure down across South TX.

We will maintain northwest flow aloft for tonight through Fri with good model agreement in a fast moving impulse tracking from the Upper Mississippi Valley to the Ohio Valley by 18z Fri. The feature will allow some cooler air to spill south across the Plains by Fri evening and will knocked highs down a few degrees for Sat. However, ahead of the front, most of the forecast area will see highs in the upper 50s and low 60s for Fri. By 12z Sat, a closed upper low is expected to be approaching northern Baja with some additional energy moving out of the Great Basin and across the Central Rockies by Sat evening. With lack of moisture, not expecting any precip with this wave.

After highs in the 50s for Sat, some weak downslope will help get us back into the 60s for Sun, with many locations across southern KS seeing upper 60s. Confidence is high that Mon is looking like the warmest of the next 7 days as we get some better mixing and extremely warm 850mb temps for this time of year. So, most locations will see highs around 70 for Mon, which will be around 25 degrees above normal highs for this time of year. On Tue, both the ECMWF and GFS agree on tracking what is left of the Baja upper low, across TX and at the same time, some northern stream energy will be moving from the Northern Plains in the Western Great Lakes region. This will push another cold front into our forecast area by early Tue evening.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 514 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

Breezy west to northwest winds will gradually decrease tonight. Then, another weak cold front will pass through the area midday Friday. Behind this cold front, winds will increase to around 10 to 20 knots while shifting to northerly.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.