textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high grassland fire danger is possible across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Precipitation chances Sunday morning through Monday midday. Wintry mix and/or freezing rain possible along I-70 Sunday night through Monday morning.

- Continued chances for showers and storms continue through much of work week next week. Possible heavy rainfall towards the middle and latter portions of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Early this morning, a broad, deep layer tough was present over the eastern CONUS, and a stout upper ridge was centered over the Baja Peninsula. At the surface, a weak cold front draped across Kansas is slowly washing out, and more uniform westerly winds are forecast to increase later today. This will promote warm and dry conditions with widespread afternoon highs in the low to mid 70s. While warm, this afternoon's highs will be a few degrees shy of the record highs for today (upper 70s to mid 80s). Additionally, these warm and dry conditions may support a brief window of very high grassland fire danger across portions of the Flint Hills during the afternoon hours. Late today into Saturday morning, a couple of quick- moving troughs across southern Canada and the northern CONUS will support the development of strong surface cyclone across Manitoba and Ontario along with a fairly stout cold front pushing across the northern and central plains. The colder air will likely stay north of the forecast area for much of Saturday allowing afternoon highs to rise into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Saturday evening into early Sunday morning, a strong surface ridge will translate southward into the northern CONUS and will aid in ushering in cooler air across the forecast area. If forcing ahead of the cold front is sufficient, a couple of showers cannot be ruled out across southeast Kansas Saturday night into Sunday morning, but chances are under 15% for now.

During the day on Sunday, continued low-level CAA is expected to continue while WAA will ramp up on top of this shallow cold airmass. Additionally, an approaching subtle lead shortwave trough should provide enough lift to support the development of a few showers, mainly along and east of the I-135 corridor. While trends have been warmer, both deterministic and ensemble global models continue to support the idea that surface temperatures will fall below freezing Sunday night across central Kansas. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty on exact precipitation type. That being said, most model soundings show that the warm nose will be well-above freezing. Therefore, sleet or freezing rain are the most favored precipitation types at this time. Again, this is assuming surface temperatures are below freezing which is not a guarantee based on how guidance has trended so far. Due to these uncertainties, exact impacts are currently difficult to parse out for locations across central Kansas late Sunday into early Monday. Meanwhile, across south-central and southeast Kansas, precipitation Sunday night through Monday morning will likely be just a cold rain.

A brief break in precipitation may be possible for much of Monday with chances for showers remaining at or below 25%. However, periodic chances for showers will steadily increase and persist Monday night through the end of the work week as an active pattern settles in across the central plains. Mid-range deterministic and ensemble guidance has consistently signaled that the best chances for precipitation will be early Tuesday through early Thursday. While guidance doesn't explicitly suggest excessive rainfall at this time, PWATs well over an inch across southeast Kansas (which is towards the upper-end of climatology for this time of year) suggest heavy rain is possible. The best chances for heavy rainfall to occur look to be Tuesday through early Wednesday, mainly along and east of I-135. Despite the modest concerns for the potential of localized flooding, this will likely be a welcome rainfall event as drought conditions have started to encroach on the southern and eastern portions of Kansas. Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 521 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Light and variable will continue through the morning hours, then winds increase to around 10 to 15 knots out of the west and southwest by late morning or early afternoon. After 00Z, light and variable winds should resume and will continue through early morning hours of Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 354 AM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and increased southwesterly winds will lead to very high grassland fire danger for a brief period on this afternoon mainly across the Flint Hills. Critical fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not expected. Fire weather concerns will decrease after Saturday as precipitation chances increase this weekend into next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.