textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- One last day of above normal temps before a strong cold front brings much colder readings for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Storm chances this evening with a couple strong to low end severe storms possible. Scattered rain chances will remain for Tuesday through Wednesday night with strong or severe storms not expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 327 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a deep upper low digging across southern Manitoba and about to move into Ontario. At the surface, a stationary front currently stretches from near Kansas City to near Great Bend and into far southwest KS. Meanwhile, a much stronger cold front is starting to make its way across ND.

Deep upper trough will continue to dig across the Northern Plains into the Western Great Lakes region with a strong cold front also continuing to surge south. By 00z, cold front is expected to stretch generally along the KS/NE border. Confidence in daytime convection still remains low, with the higher chances north of the forecast area, along the cold front. There is a small chance that a storm may develop along or just west of a Russell to Great Bend line or down along the dryline in central OK. However, the better storm chances will be after 00z as the front pushes south and low level jet gets going. Feel the best storm coverage will be over northeast KS into the northeast portion of our forecast area. This is where the higher mid level theta-e advection will take place. Some hail will be possible this evening with the stronger storms given 1500-2000J/kg of MUCAPE and plenty of shear. Keeping with the thinking that dime to quarter size hail will be the main threat this evening and overnight.

By 12z Tue, cold front will be through the forecast area with gusty northeast winds in place. Right behind the front as it moves through, we could see a brief period of northeast winds near wind advisory criteria, but it will not last more than an hour or two. Cold and cloudy conditions are anticipated for Tue, but the better rain chances look to be over far nw KS and eastern KS into southern MO. Models remain consistent in tracking an upper low across the Desert Southwest with most of the energy phasing with the northern stream upper trough near the Four Corners region for Tue night into Wed. Models are starting to come into agreement that the most widespread precip with the system will be over western KS along with parts of central KS. The main driver for precip will be mid level frontogenesis along with deep upslope flow. Upper trough will quickly swing east Wed evening, taking the higher rainfall chances with it. Confidence remains very high in below normal temps for Tue with highs in the 60s, with even cooler readings for Wed, with highs remaining in the 50s.

We will get back into northwest flow aloft for Thu, which will allow a return to seasonal temps, with above normal readings anticipated for Fri into Sat. Storm chances will then return for Sat night into Sun as a fast moving impulse tracks out of the Central Rockies and across the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Aviation concerns will be storm chances this evening along with a strong cold front moving through later tonight.

Cold front is currently about to move into northern Nebraska and will continue pushing south today. Storms are expected to develop along the front generally after 22z across northeast and north central KS. KSLN and KCNU will have the best chance to see storms tonight. Strong cold front will move through tonight, flipping winds around to the northeast with gusts in the 30-35 mph range likely. Front will move through KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 03-05z range and KICT around 07z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.