textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record high temperatures will continue this afternoon along with extreme fire danger.

- A cold front on Sunday will bring a brief cool-down for Sun & Mon with continued dry conditions.

- Temperatures will rebound for Tue-Thu with above normal temperatures expected once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Currently, a stout ridge continues to sit over the Desert Southwest which is leading to record breaking temperatures for many locations in the Southwest and Plains states. A shortwave trough is just moving onshore of Pacific Canada. At the surface, high pressure is situated to our west over the Rockies with a weak low over the eastern U.S. Overall, this is leading to weak forcing in our area which has resulted in generally light and variable winds. This will change later today as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains ahead of the shortwave trough over Canada. A tightening pressure gradient will develop across the Plains leading to breezy southwesterly winds over the forecast area this afternoon. These southwesterly winds combined with the anomalously strong high pressure will lead to another day of potentially record breaking temperatures as nearly all locations top out in the lower 90s for highs. Breezy winds, well above normal temps, and low RH values will lead to very high to extreme fire danger.

For tomorrow, a shortwave trough will dip across the northern tier of the U.S. that will act to suppress the ridge some. This trough will push a cold frontal boundary across the state during the early part of the day. This will lead to quite the disparity in temperatures across the forecast area. Behind the front in Central Kansas, high temperatures will only reach into the upper 60s. Whereas ahead of the front in Southeastern Kansas, afternoon highs will top out in the middle to upper 80s. Behind the frontal boundary, strong northerly winds are anticipated leading to another day of elevated fire danger. Temperatures on Monday will be near normal with highs in the lower to middle 60s for nearly all locations.

As we move into Tuesday through the middle of the week, ridging will build back in over the region leading to another warm-up with temperatures reaching into the 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday and the middle to upper 80s for Wednesday. A few lingering clouds are expected on Tuesday as the previous system exits to the east, but by Wednesday, mostly clear and dry conditions will prevail. Another frontal boundary looks to sweep across the state on Thursday which will bring us another cool-down for the end of the week and could lead to spotty precip chances.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Main aviation concern will be with winds. Southerly winds at RSL, GBD, SLN, and HUT will be between 10 to 15 kts gusting up to 20-25 kts this afternoon with winds around 10 kts at ICT and CNU. Winds will decrease after sunset to around 10 kts at all sites then a cold front will move through the area from north to south starting at 12z, shifting winds to northerly. Wind speeds will increase to 20-25 kts gusting to 40 kts by late Sunday morning at all sites except at CNU where speeds between 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts are expected.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Breezy southwest winds will combine with very low RH values leading to extreme fire danger over parts of central, south central and southeast Kansas this afternoon. A cold front will arrive on Sunday shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in some cooler, more seasonable air. Northwest winds may gust to around 40 mph at times, resulting in extreme grassland fire danger for much of the area and a fire weather watch remains in effect on Sunday.

As temperatures rebound by mid-week, we could see a resurgence of elevated fire danger during the afternoon hours with breezy winds and continued dry conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 206 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

Record highs are once again possible Saturday.

Saturday (3/21): Wichita: Forecast - 92, Record - 92 (1916) Salina: Forecast - 94, Record - 96 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 91, Record - 95 (1916) Russell: Forecast - 94, Record - 85 (1997)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Wind Advisory from 9 AM to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.