textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures returning on Sunday with record warmth likely on Monday.

- Strong cold front moving through on Tuesday bringing cooler temperatures for Tuesday through Thursday.

- Shower and storm chances increasing for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening with additional periodic chances Wednesday through Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper ridge building into the Plains with an upper trough over the northeastern CONUS. At the surface, expansive high pressure extends from the Great Lakes area to the Mid-Atlantic and down to the Tennessee Valley with surface ridging stretching into the Southern Plains. Low pressure sits over eastern Wyoming with surface troughing extending into the Northern Plains and down into eastern Colorado. In our area, breezy southerly winds continue with the strongest winds in central KS between 25-30 mph and gusts up to 45 mph. Given the windy conditions, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 7pm. As we move towards tonight, winds will decrease with lows dropping into the 40s as Sunday morning approaches.

On Sunday, thickness will start to increase and warmer temperatures will return. As the surface low shifts east into the Central Plains, the pressure gradient will increase across eastern Kansas resulting in breezy southerly winds especially in southeast KS. Southerly winds will be between 20-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Low-level southwesterly winds will help warm temperatures into the lower 80s across much of the area with the upper 70s in southeast KS. This warming trend and increasing thickness will continue into Monday allowing high temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 80s with even the potential for lower 90s in central and parts of south- central KS. Given these forecast highs, which are about 25 degrees above average for this time of year, record warmth is likely on Monday.

An upper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will push a strong cold front through our area during the day on Tuesday. This will result in a range of high temperatures from the lower 60s in central KS to the lower 80s in southeast KS. As this front moves through southeast KS on Tuesday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are possible. Southwesterly winds will help bring dewpoints into the 50s with steep low- and mid- level lapse rates. Model guidance is generally showing around 1200 J/kg MUCAPE in southeast KS with around 30 kts of effective shear which could support a few marginally severe storms. PWATs are progged to be over 1.25" which is around the maximum for this time of year, leading to the potential for some meaningful rainfall in far southeast KS. Given how far out this is, forecast details will continue to be monitored and refined, stay tuned.

Cooler temperatures and breezy northeasterly winds are expected on Wednesday following the cold front. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s which would be 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Additional rain chances are possible Wednesday through Thursday as another upper shortwave is progged to move into the Central Rockies. There is some spread with models on timing, location and precip amounts making uncertainty high on shower and storm chances for Wednesday and Thursday. Long range guidance suggests a deeper upper trough moving into the Central Rockies Friday night and into Saturday which would bring additional rain chances to the area, though differences in model guidance remain on timing and locations for showers and storms. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Breezy southerly winds will gradually diminish tonight. A developing LLJ will bring LLWS to central KS impacting KSLN, KGBD and perhaps KHUT during the early morning hours. A trough of low pressure will spread east Sunday afternoon allowing winds to diminish in central KS while breezy southwest winds persist in southeast KS. VFR will prevail through the upcoming 24-hr period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1015 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

For Sunday through Tuesday, each day looks to have Very High grassland fire danger due to above-normal temperatures, breezy southerly winds, and lower relative humidity. A Fire Weather Watch could be possible on Monday though much of the area will see relative humidity return to the 30s which could limit Extreme fire danger concerns. A cold front will push through the area on Tuesday, shifting breezy winds to northerly, with some rain chances possible on Tuesday afternoon. Additional rain chances could be possible on Wednesday and Thursday, which combined with cooler temperatures could limit fire danger concerns on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

CLIMATE

Issued at 135 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Record high temperatures are possible Monday, March 30th. Below are the forecast and corresponding records for our four primary long-term climate sites.

Record high temperatures for Monday, March 30th:

SITE FORECAST RECORD

WICHITA 88 83 in 1917

SALINA 90 91 in 1917

CHANUTE 84 83 in 1968

RUSSELL 91 86 in 1968

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067-068-082. Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>051.