textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry this week along with seasonable high temperatures near 90 and lows in the upper 60s through Wednesday.

- Isolated showers and storms are possible Wednesday afternoon and evening in southeast Kansas. Severe weather is not expected.

- Slight warming trend to close out the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a building ridge centered over the Rockies as a weak trough progresses over the Ohio Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary remains draped across portions of northern Oklahoma and extends eastward into the Ohio/Tennessee Valley. Showers and storms currently observed along this boundary are expected to continue into the overnight hours. Activity to the north should remain limited, though to this point a brief pop-up shower or rumble of thunder can't be ruled out later this afternoon into the early evening as convective temperatures are reached in far southern Kansas. Given very weak flow and meager lapse rates aloft, any activity that manages to develop should be short-lived. Silent PoPs were introduced to account for this potential.

The mid/upper ridge will continue building to the north to start the week, which should promote dry conditions across the forecast area through at least Tuesday. Guidance continues to highlight greater layer thicknesses and associated temperature anomalies across the Northern Plains. Thus, with the southern periphery of the ridge overhead, seasonable temperatures are expected to persist with afternoon highs near 90 and overnight lows in the middle to upper 60s.

A brief shift in the pattern may arrive on Wednesday as a westward- tracking upper low enters the region. Subsequent cooler temperatures aloft and increasing Gulf moisture may allow for isolated showers and weak thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours, especially across southeast Kansas. Limited run-to-run consistency and varying solutions among the mid/long range suite indicate low confidence in these, however, with better agreement in coverage to the south and east. All things considered, with seasonable instability yet limited shear anticipated, severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

Toward the end of the week, model consensus indicates a southward shift of the ridge as a series of shortwaves tracks over its northern edge across the southern Canadian provinces. This shift will promote a warming trend heading into next weekend, with high temperatures expected to reach the middle 90s areawide by Friday and perhaps the upper 90s by Saturday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING/

Issued at 553 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

Light easterly to southeasterly winds will persist through the TAF period with wind speeds generally between 5 to 10 knots.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.