textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated showers/thunderstorms today. Most locations will remain dry. Severe weather not expected.

- Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms late tonight through Thursday night. Isolated severe weather possible, along with locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns.

- Off-and-on active pattern could linger from this weekend into at least early next week, but there remains quite a bit of uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

PRECIPITATION:

TODAY...Similar to yesterday, will likely see a few isolated showers/thunderstorms across portions of central and eastern Kansas anytime between about 11 AM and 9 PM, as a moist/unstable and uncapped airmass remains in place across the region, and large scale ascent persists ahead of a deep upper trough approaching from the west-northwest. Most locations will remain dry. Widespread severe weather is unlikely given rather weak deep layer shear, although moderate to strong instability may support isolated instances of very small hail, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.

LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...The deep upper trough approaching from the west along with an associated slow-moving frontal zone moving through from the northwest will support off-and- on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region late tonight through Thursday night. While a handful of marginally severe thunderstorms are possible throughout this time period (especially during the afternoon-evening hours), most activity should remain below severe levels given a limited combination of buoyancy and deep layer effective shear. Locally heavy rainfall is likely, which could support isolated flooding concerns. Model consensus supports widespread rainfall amounts of 0.25 to 0.50 inches through Thursday night, with localized 1-2+ inch amounts possible.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...While there remains some uncertainty, deterministic consensus supports a continued off-and-on active pattern Friday through at least early next week, as various shortwaves progress over the region within progressive west- northwest flow aloft. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Seasonably warm temperatures look to persist today, with forecast highs in the upper 80s to low 90s. From Wednesday through Friday, increased precipitation chances and decreasing atmospheric thickness will support a slight cool down, with many locations in the 70s to low 80s for daytime highs. By the weekend, temperatures should get back to seasonal normals in the 80s, as both thickness and southerly flow increase across Mid-America.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 532 AM CDT Tue Sep 16 2025

Can't rule out a few isolated showers/thunderstorms anywhere across central and eastern Kansas late this morning through early to mid-evening, within a continued moist/unstable and weakly capped airmass. The strongest activity will be capable of isolated gusty winds and brief heavy rain. Most locations will remain storm-free. Chances are 20 percent or lower, so did not include a mention in the 12z TAFs.

For later tonight, chances for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase from the west-northwest ahead of a strong storm system. The strongest activity will be capable of small hail, gusty winds, and locally heavy rain. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now in all TAFs except CNU. Later shifts will likely need to consider TEMPO or even prevailing groups to cover the TSRA threat later tonight, especially at RSL-GBD, and possibly SLN-HUT-ICT as well.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.