textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of strong to severe storms will develop along a southeast advancing cold front this afternoon. Areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike will have the greatest chances for seeing severe storms.

- Seasonably cool air returns on Saturday but temperatures quickly moderate on Sunday.

- Extreme grassland fire danger may return to much of central Kansas and parts of south central Kansas as we move into the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies early this morning will emerge over the Northern Plains as we move through the day. This will drive a cold front south and east across the Central Plains this afternoon. The front will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms after 18Z or when the cap weakens sufficiently. Rich low level moisture over southeast OK is progged to return northward arriving in southeast KS as we move through the day. A more rapid return of the low level moisture could allow for an earlier storm initiation which is supported by the HRRR/RAP showing a minimal cap by 15-16Z. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates/1500+ MLCAPE combined with deep layer shear of 45-50 knots oriented along the frontal zone should result in a robust line of storms bringing the threat for damaging winds and some hail. A narrow line of storms is anticipated and the threat is expected to move east of the area clearing southeast Kansas between 8-9 pm.

Drier, more stable air will arrive in the wake of the front with more seasonable temperatures expected. Lows tonight will fall into the 30s across central KS remains in the mid and upper 40s.

Sat-Sun...quiet and tranquil weather conditions are anticipated over the upcoming weekend with seasonable temperatures. Highs in the low 50s Sat will begin to moderate by Sunday remaining dry in northwest mid/upper flow.

A clipper system will drive another cold front south across the Central Plains on Monday. This frontal boundary will become stationary, bisecting Kansas and leading to a wide range of temperatures. Recent trends support the frontal boundary stalling in central or northeast KS leading to a low confidence temperature forecast on Monday. The stationary boundary is progged to return northward as we move into Tuesday but once again, we have a low confidence temperature forecast on Tuesday and values may begin to trend higher as confidence increases.

Unsettled weather may return to the area late in the week as another frontal boundary is progged to sag into the Central Plains as a shortwave trough digs over the Rockies bringing a more progressive westerly mid/upper flow. This could result in another round of precipitation for the area but the details remains fairly uncertain at this point.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1106 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected this period for central KS sites, while MVFR conditions are anticipated across portions of south central and southeast KS ahead of a cold front arriving later today.

LLWS is expected to develop and persist through the morning hours at all sites before dissipating around sunrise. Low-level moisture flowing into portions of south central and southeast KS will promote MVFR ceilings with the potential for even IFR ceilings at CNU. Additionally, strong south winds ahead of the arriving cold front will continue out of the north as the boundary passes through the region later this morning into the afternoon.

We continue to see the potential for showers and storms to develop along the aforementioned boundary during the early afternoon through the evening. Confidence remains rather low at this time in timing for storm initialization, so decided to introduce a brief PROB30 at ICT to cover this potential. Better chances to this point reside in southeast KS, so a PROB30 was introduced at CNU with this cycle. Stay tuned to upcoming forecasts as we continue to refine details.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

A cold front will sweep across the area this afternoon with gusty northwest winds in it's wake. Some gusts over 30 mph are possible at times. Meanwhile, minimum relative humidities will fall to around 20 percent in central Kansas. The same overall setup is anticipated for Saturday, but with wind speeds around 5-10 mph lower.

A very high grassland fire danger will return for central Kansas and parts of south central Kansas each afternoon from Monday through Thursday with extreme grassland fire danger possible over central Kansas on Wednesday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.