textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very dangerous fire weather conditions will impact the region for today along with strong southwest winds, Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory headlines are in effect

- A very powerful weather system looks to bring much colder air and strong north winds to the region on Sunday

- Warmer temperatures will quickly return for Tuesday-Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Very strong southwest winds with higher gusts of 40-50mph will spread over central and south central Kansas today, as combination of deeper vertical mixing taps into higher wind speeds aloft and surface pressure gradient really tightens up. HREF probabilities for 850mb winds of 40kts or greater has increased every model run and latest guidance is at 70-100% which creates higher confidence that stronger than normal winds will occur. A wind advisory has been hoisted across the region.

A weak frontal boundary will pass through Kansas for late Thursday night into Friday with little sensible weather changes as daytime highs will remain above normal. Temperatures will be even warmer on Saturday before big weather changes look to impact the region on Sunday-Monday. Deterministic/ensemble models continue to show a noteworthy deepening trend with the upper trough/surface low pressure for this period, as the system races southeast across the central plains. In addition, latest ECMWF EFI index values continue to increase which suggests that unusually strong north wind gusts are likely to occur over Kansas. Most model data is showing an astonishing and profound signal of explosive surface cyclogenesis as the surface low tracks northeast to the Great Lakes region Sunday night. Add it all up, this will result in a robust cold front blasting southward with a substantial increase of north wind speeds, and falling daytime temperatures across Kansas. The potential is increasing for the north wind speeds to attain high wind warning levels if model trends continue with this signal. Finally, there is a low chance for some winter precipitation to affect the area however latest storm track by the models would be more of glancing blow. Stay tuned as we continue to refine details on this upcoming powerful weather system for Sunday.

Colder below normal temperatures will prevail over the region on Monday in the wake of Sunday's weather system. However the cold temperatures look to be short lived as models show upper level ridge amplifying over the Rockies then shifting it's influence eastward for all of next week. This upper level pattern shift will result in dry weather and warmer temperatures across the Heartland.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong southwest winds will develop across the region for later this morning through the afternoon hours. Higher wind gusts around 40kts look to impact central Kansas and parts of south central Kansas this afternoon. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will push southward across central Kansas late tonight causing the winds to flip around to the north.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 251 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Extreme fire danger will impact all of central and south central Kansas, with Very High fire danger over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Southwest winds will begin to increase by mid to late morning and reach peak intensity in the afternoon with gusts up to 50mph at times. We expanded the Red Flag Warning another row of counties to the east for today. High clouds are currently streaming southeast into Nebraska and will continue to spread further southeast today. We will monitor these high cloud trends for today as they could impact our satellite technology for hot spot detection, especially if the thicker high clouds spread across central Kansas.

Fire danger risk could become elevated again on Sunday, however much colder air is expected to blast southward across the region during the day. The timing of these colder temperatures would lower the fire weather risk if it spreads southward faster than the latest projections despite very strong north winds overspreading the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083. Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.