textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday through Friday, though still unseasonably warm for February.

- Breezy northerly winds are expected on Tuesday following the cold front.

- Mostly dry conditions are likely through Thursday with increasing rain chances Friday through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows weak upper-level ridging over the Plains with a shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies. An additional shortwave trough over the Tennessee Valley is moving into the southeastern CONUS. An upper low continues to spin over Baja California. At the surface, a low is over Ontario with additional low pressure in the Northern Plains with surfacing troughing extending down to the high Plains. In our area, thickness has increased with the thermal ridge sitting over the Plains and Mississippi Valley. Breezy southerly/southwesterly winds continue with gusts up to 30 mph especially in central KS.

As we move into tonight, breezy southerly winds will weaken a bit. In the overnight hours into Tuesday morning, a cold front will push through our area which will increase winds and shift them to northerly. Breezy winds are likely to continue through the morning and start to diminish in the late afternoon. Sustained winds will be up to 25 mph with gusts between 30-40 mph across the area. Cooler temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, albeit still above average for February with highs expected to be in the 50s. By mid work week, upper ridging will move into the Plains area with additional embedded shortwave troughs riding the ridge. Wednesday will be similar to Tuesday with highs in the 50s. Temperatures will warm back into the 60s on Thursday before a cold front pushes through Thursday night. There is a low possibility (under 25% chance) for rain showers Thursday night as the weak cold front moves through combined with a weak shortwave moving through the Central Plains. However, if any shower develops, it would be light and pretty isolated given the weak lift and limited moisture.

For Friday and Saturday, confidence is very low on rain chances. An upper trough will move into the Central Rockies Friday night which may increase rainfall chances Friday to Saturday night. However, uncertainty is high given the lack of model consistency. Recent runs of the GFS and ECMWF continue to have a southward shift with the track of this system. On the contrary, the GDPS brings the system through our area and has much higher rainfall amounts. For ensembles, the GEFS and EPS have a 30-50% chance on seeing measurable precip on Friday night with probabilities increasing to 40-80% towards Saturday morning. Trends with this system will continue to be monitored, and its likely to change this far out. Stay tuned for future forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Primary aviation concerns will be LLWS this evening into the early morning hours and strong winds following a wind shift to the north late tonight into Tuesday morning. Sustained speeds behind the approaching front are expected to reach 15-20 kts with gusts up to 30+ kts through the morning and early afternoon hours, especially in central and south central KS.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 233 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Above normal temperatures, lower relative humidity, and breezy/gusty northerly to northeasterly winds will support Very High grassland fire danger on Tuesday morning into the early afternoon. The strongest winds and associated highest fire danger will be in south-central KS, generally in areas south of Highway 56 and west of I-135. Red flag/critical fire danger is not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.