textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Record warmth likely today, turning cooler from the north Tuesday.

- Elevated grassfire danger today and Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern expected late Tuesday through early Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected. Heavy rainfall and potential severe weather possible, especially mid to late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

PRECIPITATION:

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--NIGHT...A strong cold front will be the focus for shower/thunderstorm development generally along/south-southeast of Highway 50. The cold front is rather shallow, and there is little to no upper forcing, which may keep coverage more on the isolated to widely scattered side as opposed to widespread coverage. A marginal combination of deep layer shear and buoyancy may support small hail and gusty winds with the strongest activity, with widespread severe weather unlikely. Locally heavy rainfall is possible as well given above average precipitable waters, although the heavy rainfall threat will be dependent on amount of storm coverage.

WEDNESDAY--EARLY THURSDAY...Model consensus progresses a rather potent shortwave east into Mid-America during this time, interacting with the stalled frontal zone in place across the region. This should support the potential for additional showers/thunderstorms, with coverage likely more numerous/widespread compared to Tuesday evening-night. The highest chances will be late Wednesday through Wednesday night, mainly along/east of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to Salina. While widespread severe weather looks unlikely, strong forcing amidst marginal instability and somewhat better vertical shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms. Additionally, locally heavy rainfall and potential localized flooding concerns will be a strong possibility, given the anomalous precipitable waters and strong forcing.

FRIDAY--EARLY SATURDAY...Model consensus progresses yet another strong shortwave into Mid-America during this time period, interacting with the same wobbly strong frontal zone to produce another round of scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms, most widespread late Friday through Friday night generally along/east of a line extending from Med Lodge to Hutch to Salina. While this is still a ways out in the forecasting realm, the severe weather threat may prove to be a bit higher with this system given a stronger combination of buoyancy and vertical shear amidst the strong forcing. The threat for locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns will exist as well, especially if rainfall occurs over areas that received heavy rainfall early to mid week.

Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

TODAY...Another warm/windy day is on tap, as lee troughing deepens over the High Plains. While wind advisory criteria (at least 30 mph sustained) may be touched periodically, especially over south- central KS, don't think it'll be widespread enough to warrant a wind advisory. Additionally, this will likely be the warmest day of the next 7-9 days, with record highs in the 80s to near 90 degrees a strong possibility.

TUESDAY--THURSDAY...A strong cold front is slated to arrive from the north on Tuesday, supporting a sharp cool down along with stout/gusty north-northeast winds. Temperatures should fall into the 60s over generally the northwest half of KS, with 70s and 80s further south. Wednesday will feature a large range in temperatures as a stalled frontal zone remains draped west-east over central KS, with 40s-50s over central and northern KS, and 60s-70s further south. A post frontal airmass amidst more sunshine should support near average temperatures Thursday.

FRIDAY--NEXT MONDAY...A warm-up back to above average temperatures is expected Friday along with stout/gusty south winds ahead of the next strong cold front. This cold front is slated to blast southeast across the region by Friday evening-night. Much cooler daytime highs in the 50s-60s look probable for the weekend, along with the potential for near freezing overnight temperatures. By early next week, model consensus supports another warm-up as upper ridging and southerly flow increase.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

A stout southwesterly low-level jet will support low-level wind shear within the lowest 1500-2000 ft AGL early this morning, and again this evening through tonight.

Additionally, a tight pressure gradient will support stout/gusty southerly surface winds today and tonight, with gusts up to around 30 kts likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

FIRE WEATHER...

TODAY...VERY HIGH grassland fire danger is expected areawide, due to above average temperatures and stout/gusty south-southwest winds. Not expecting a Red Flag Warning, as afternoon relatively humidity will remain marginal in the 30s to near 40 percent.

TUESDAY...A strong cold front is slated to blast south through the region Tuesday, with gusty north winds and cooler temperatures in wake of the front, and gusty southwest winds and warmer temperatures ahead of the front. VERY HIGH grassland fire danger is once again expected areawide. Similar to today though, not expecting a Red Flag Warning given marginal relative humidity.

CLIMATE

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Record high temperatures are possible today. Below are the forecast highs and corresponding records for our four primary long-term climate sites.

Record high temperatures for today:

SITE FORECAST RECORD

WICHITA 87 83 in 1917

SALINA 88 91 in 1917

CHANUTE 86 83 in 1968

RUSSELL 90 86 in 1968

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.