textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures, breezy winds and dry conditions will persist into Monday with abnormally warm temperatures continuing into Tuesday.

- Shower and storm chances are likely to return next week with periodic chances possible from Tuesday evening to Thursday night.

- Cooler temperatures are forecast from mid week through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 232 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Currently, an upper level trough is continues to dig into the northwestern/western CONUS with ridging over the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS. At the surface, a low is over the border of Minnesota and South Dakota with a cold front draped across central Nebraska. Lee troughing remains in place with an increased pressure gradient over our area, leading to breezy southerly winds especially for area west of the Kansas Turnpike. These breezy conditions will persist into Monday as the upper trough continues to dig into the western CONUS, keeping an increased pressure gradient from lee troughing over our area. Sustained winds will be between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph especially in central and south-central KS. Well above normal high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday as increased thickness and above normal 850 mb temperatures persist. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

A pattern change is likely to start on Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night as the aforementioned upper trough over the western CONUS propagates east and approaches the Rockies into Wednesday. This trough will bring the next round of shower and storm chances to the region especially as a cold front is expected to push south through the central Plains into Kansas by Tuesday morning. These rain chances will be possible from Tuesday evening to Thursday night before the trough continues to slide east on Friday, though the ECMWF has a slower solution where it keeps the trough in the Rockies through Friday leading to some uncertainty on rain chances into next weekend. Strong to severe storms may be possible with this activity as effective wind shear increases combined with ample instability and forcing from the trough and cold front. Heavy rainfall appears likely as well as PWATs approach 2" (greater than the maximum for this time of year) across our area. Details on timing, location and impacts will continue to be refined as we get closer.

From mid to late week, temperatures are forecast to become more seasonable as highs return to the 70s. Moving into next weekend, uncertainty increases on temperatures as there is still a bit of a spread in guidance, though the GFS has started to trend not as cold as before. The GFS has transitioned to a similar solution of the ECMWF with ridging over the western CONUS into the Plains. However, the GFS still has a deep upper trough over much of the eastern CONUS so there is still a question of how far west and south this cold air makes it. On the bright side, both deterministic models are trending towards high temperatures in the 50s-60s with lows in the 40s for next weekend. Stay tuned!

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions and gusty southerly winds will persist through this afternoon. Surface winds will diminish this evening at most sites however winds approximately 1500-2000 ft AGL will remain around 45-50 kts leading to low-level wind shear overnight into early Monday morning at all TAF sites. Southerly to southwesterly surface winds will become breezy once again late tomorrow morning at all TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.