textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Line of strong to severe storms will continue to track southeast this evening along a cold front.

- Cooler for Saturday with warmer temps for both Sunday and Monday

- Gusty south winds for Wednesday along with very high to extreme fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper low tracking along the Nebraska/SD border. Meanwhile, a cold front is surging through the Plains and currently extends from nw MO to near Wichita and down into western OK.

Cold front will continue tracking southeast this evening with storms developing along it. Still thinking the stronger storms will be capable of hail up to quarter size and damaging winds in the 60-70 mph range. This will mainly be due to ML CAPE values around 2,000J/KG and effective deep layer shear in the 30-40kt range. Still looking for storms to be exiting southeast KS in the 9-11pm range.

By Sat morning, upper low will be moving across MN with cold front moving through the Arklatex region. Over the Plains, high pressure will be working-in from the northwest providing plenty of sun, but slightly below normal temps, with highs topping out around 60. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low to mid 60s. Northwest flow aloft will be in place for Sunday through Monday with models still agreeing on a mid level baroclinic zone sinking south across Nebraska into northeast KS on Monday, with strong warm advection across it. Still thinking the bulk of the rain associated with this feature should stay north and northeast of the forecast area for Mon into Mon night.

For Wednesday, medium range models agree on tracking some shortwave energy out of southern Alberta, across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains by Wednesday afternoon. This will flatten out the upper flow and allow for low pressure to quickly strengthen over eastern CO/western KS and a cold front to surge south across the Central Plains. This setup will provide strong return flow and warm temps for Wednesday along with elevated fire danger. Front will also provided some chances for rain for the Wednesday night through Friday time frame.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

An active period is anticipated for aviation interests over the next 12 hours.

As of 1730Z, a cold front was located along a KSLN-KHUT-KANY line and quickly progressing eastward. Showers and storms are developing along the cold front and should become more numerous as the front continues to progress eastward. Storm chances will sharply come to an end for KICT by 21Z, and portions of the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas may see storms between 21Z to 03Z this afternoon and night. After 03Z, lingering showers and storms will gradually exit southeast Kansas as the front exits the region.

Ahead of the frontal boundary, surface winds are fairly gusty with sustained winds around 20 knots and gusts between 30 and 35 knots. Behind the frontal boundary, winds will be out of the northwest at around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots. There may be a brief period of light winds during the morning hours on Saturday, but winds should increase by the late morning or early afternoon hours.

In general, VFR conditions should dominate the region after 06Z tonight across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Very high fire danger will be in place across central KS each afternoon for Saturday, Monday and Tuesday. For Wednesday, very fire danger will be in place area wide with extreme values over central KS.

Gusty northwest winds will result in some pockets of very high fire danger over central KS for Sat afternoon. For Monday and Tuesday afternoons, gusty south and southeast winds will elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category for central KS. Afternoon RH values on both of these days will be in the 25-35% range.

For Wednesday, south winds will continue to ramp-up with with gusts in the 30-40 mph range likely. Look for afternoon RH values to be in the 30-40% range. This will provide widespread very high fire danger with extreme over central KS where moisture has been minimal over the last several days and grasses remain fairly cured.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.