textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet weather pattern through early Monday
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday evening through midweek
DISCUSSION
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026
As of 115 PM Saturday afternoon northwesterly midlevel flow remains across the northern and central Plains. An area of surface high pressure has settled across portions of northern KS through upper midwest. This is resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Afternoon temperatures will approach 70 degrees across all of central, south-central, and southeast KS. Transitioning into tonight, the area of surface high pressure will slide east of the area tonight, allowing southerly winds to return areawide. The increasing southerly flow will allow overnight lows will remain mild in the mid to upper 40s tonight. A weak cold front will approach the area Sunday, gradually shifting winds from the south to the west and eventually from a northerly direction. As low-level winds veer from the west Sunday, the resultant downslope flow will allow temperatures to surge into the 80s.
The potential for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase Monday through at least Wednesday as a deep southwestern US trough phases with a northern stream trough. NAM/GFS/ECMWF guidance largely agree that midlevel lapse rate profiles (5.5-6 C/km) will remain quite unfavorable for any robust convection. Otherwise, the central Plains will remain within a northwesterly midlevel flow pattern for the second half of next week. This should result in minimal precipitation chances.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026
VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Light and variable winds will become southerly this evening near 10 kt. A brief period of marginal LLWS conditions are expected across central from roughly 07-13Z but have withheld at this time as magnitudes fall short of LLWS criteria. A weak cold front will approach the terminals Sunday morning with an ultimate wind shift from the northwest Sunday afternoon.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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