textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining slightly below average through Monday.

- Warming trend commences early next week.

- Possible return of rain chances next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 155 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Upper air analysis this afternoon shows a weak upper ridge beginning to build in out over the Rocky Mountains and into the southern/central plains. At the surface, the surface ridge that aided in bringing the region's first frost/freeze of the season earlier this morning has translated eastward, and light southerly low-level flow has returned. Still, afternoon temperatures will be a bit cooler than average for this time of year with highs topping out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Tonight, light winds and clear skies will support ample radiational cooling, and another night/early morning with temperatures in the 30s is forecast. While temperatures should remain above freezing, some frost is possible, mainly across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. Breezy southerly winds throughout the day on Sunday should support afternoon highs in the 60s, and continued light southerly flow will keep overnight lows Sunday night in the 40s. Similar conditions are expected on Monday with breezy southerly winds, afternoon highs in the mid to upper 60s, and lows in the 40s.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is beginning to show a subtle mid/upper trough racing northeast out New Mexico and into the central plains. Limited moisture should prevent the development of widespread showers, but there should be enough synoptic ascent for cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles on Tuesday. Persistent southerly low level flow will continue advecting warmer temperatures into the region with afternoon highs likely to rise into the 70s on Tuesday despite the increased cloud cover. Persistent deep layer troughing across the western CONUS and mid/upper ridging across the central plains should continue to encourage a marked warming trend from mid to late next week. This upper pattern should keep southwesterly upper flow across the southern Rockies promoting gradual surface pressure falls across the Front Range and High Plains supporting continued southerly low-level flow. As a result, highs Wednesday through Saturday are generally forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s each afternoon. This is slightly lower than in previous forecasts as mid/long range guidance shows an increased likelihood for cloud cover in response to broad, weak synoptic ascent overspreading the central plains. However, sufficient moisture for precipitation looks to hold off until late next weekend or early next week. Long range global models remain a bit all over the place, but most show another Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Mexico, eventually recurving with moisture from its remnants streaming northward into the southern and central plains by this weekend or next week. Details still remain incredibly fuzzy this far out, and trends will need to monitored over the next week or so.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1118 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will remain 5-10 kt overnight before increasing to around 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt, especially across central KS. Wind speeds will decrease to around 10 kt near 00Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.