textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Record warmth likely today, turning cooler from the north later on Tuesday. - Elevated grassfire danger today and Tuesday.

- Active weather pattern late Tuesday through early Saturday, with multiple rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected. Heavy rainfall and potential isolated severe weather possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Currently, broad ridging extends across much of the CONUS with an upper level trough just moving onshore of the Pac Northwest. A broad surface low pressure is developing ahead of the trough across the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains with a cold front draped across the northern tier of the CONUS. This is leading to a tight pressure gradient across the forecast area, creating strong southerly/southwesterly winds with gusts up to 35 mph this afternoon. The broad ridge and increasing heights centered over the area are aiding in yet another day of anomalously warm, near record breaking temperatures. Afternoon highs across the area are expected to top out in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees. Dewpoints will remain in the middle to upper 50s this afternoon, and the moist airmass will keep temperatures from reaching the upper end of model guidance. Winds will remain breezy and temperatures will be quite mild through the overnight hours ahead of the approaching frontal boundary.

On Tuesday, temperatures will remain above average ahead of the cold front. Current timing brings the front through during the afternoon hours. Highs in central Kansas will reach the 70s before the cooler air filters in, with south-central and southeast Kansas reaching into the 80s. Strong southwesterly winds ahead of the frontal boundary will gust to 35 mph across south-central and southeastern Kansas. Then, winds will turn out of the north behind the front, with gusts to 35 mph in central Kansas. A few showers/storms will develop along the front during the evening hours, and continue into the overnight across south-central and southeast. Severe weather is not expected as overall forcing is not strong with this front. But modest shear and decent CAPE values along the boundary will support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail.

Then on late Wednesday into early Thursday, as the frontal boundary stalls to our south, a potent shortwave will swing across the Central Plains. The combination of lift and anomalously high PWATs will lead to rather widespread showers and storms Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning. Once again, widespread severe weather is unlikely, but adequate shear and marginal instability will allow for a few stronger thunderstorms. However, with above normal PWATs between 1-1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will be a concern, especially across southeast Kansas. Temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will remain near normal in the post-frontal environment with widespread cloud cover and shower activity.

Brief clearing ahead of the next system and subtle ridging on Friday will allow for temperatures to rebound to slightly above normal with highs reaching into the 70s to around 80 degrees. The next trough will swing across the central U.S. late Friday and into the weekend. A surface low will eject off the Central Rockies by midday Friday dragging with it a frontal boundary that will initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms for Friday evening through Saturday morning. Model guidance currently indicates that this activity will once again focus across eastern Kansas, with our central Kansas counties likely missing out once again. Behind this deeper, more potent trough, much cooler temperatures are expected for this upcoming weekend with highs reaching only into the 60s areawide.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Main aviation issue will be a cold front still set to move through on Tuesday.

Cold front currently stretches across central Nebraska and is continuing to push south tonight. It is expected to move through KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 14-16z time frame and KICT around 22z. Behind the front winds will flip around to the north and northeast with gusts around 30-35kts, especially across central KS. While any clouds will stay at VFR levels, attention will then turn to storm chances Tuesday evening as a low level jet develops. Confidence at this point isn't high enough to insert into TAFs, but this will be something to monitor.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Very High fire danger will continue through the evening hours as above normal temperatures and gusty southerly winds persist across the area. Recent rains and RH values around 40% may mitigate fire weather concerns some.

Very High fire danger will return for the entire forecast area on Tuesday with the approach of a cold front. Breezy southerly winds ahead of the front and strong northerly winds behind the front are expected. Above normal temperatures and min RH values between 30-40% will lead to widespread concerns. A Red Flag Warning is not anticipated at this time, primarily due to the marginal humidity values.

CLIMATE

Issued at 243 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Record high temperatures are possible today. Below are the forecast highs and corresponding records for our four primary long-term climate sites.

Record high temperatures for today:

SITE FORECAST RECORD

WICHITA 87 83 in 1917

SALINA 88 91 in 1917

CHANUTE 86 83 in 1968

RUSSELL 90 86 in 1968

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.