textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Light sprinkles/flurries possible this evening along and east of the Flint Hills.

- Light snow possible Monday morning in portions of south central KS. Very little accumulation is expected at this time.

- Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions through Thursday, with a pattern change arriving on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper wave situated over the Great Lakes with the associated speed max positioned over the Northern Rockies. A surface low resides in Minnesota with the associated cold front spanning across the Northern Plains. Mid/upper energy has promoted very light snow/rain per radar returns and surface obs so far today across Nebraska out ahead of the main wave. We continue to see the potential for these to make their way across northeast KS later this afternoon and can't rule out a few sprinkles and/or flurries along and east of the Flint Hills through the evening hours. No accumulation is expected as this feature continues racing off to the southeast.

The cold front will continue shifting southward and make its way through the forecast area later this evening into the overnight hours. Short-term models continue to support light snow over portions of western Kansas Monday morning ahead of a 700 mb baroclinic zone. Decided to maintain modest PoPs for light snow and flurries in south central KS through mid-morning, though dry air in the low levels will likely preclude chances for meaningful accumulations. Highs on Monday are anticipated to drop back into the upper 20s and middle 30s throughout the forecast area as the chilly airmass behind the front slides through the region.

Following the chilly start to the work week, dry and seasonable weather is forecast Tuesday through Thursday with afternoon highs in the 40s and low 50s. Attention then turns to Friday and beyond, with long-range models suggesting the return of arctic air and high temperatures well below normal (20s and low 30s) lasting through the weekend. Global ensembles further indicate the potential for wintry precipitation during this timeframe, with the Euro/Canadian ensembles more bullish for snow than GFS members.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A cold front has moved through the majority of the forecast area this morning turning winds out of the northwest. Breezy northwesterly winds are expected through the afternoon with gusts around 25 knots are possible. Winds will diminish below 10 knots around 00Z with northerly winds increasing over 10 knots again between 10-12Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.