textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few thunderstorms possible late this afternoon/evening; better chances late tonight into Saturday morning

- Additional storm chances, especially at night, this weekend into next week

- Temperatures remain near or above normal

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

As of 2 PM Friday afternoon, an amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with troughing across the eastern US and ridging across the western half. This particular pattern leaves KS within a northwest flow regime with the core of the ridge southwest of the state across the Four Corners region. A low and midlevel baroclinic zone extends from western SD through portions of eastern KS. Regional radar reveals a cluster of thunderstorm activity across portions of central and eastern NE. This is activity is being further enhanced by a 40-50 kt midlevel speed max diving southeast across SD/NE. The downstream across northern KS seems quite unfavorable for storm maintenance with considerable convective inhibition. Latest mesoanalysis reveals 150-200 J/kg of inhibition. As a result, short range guidance lends little help with how this convection will evolve into KS. Given the lack of well-established, deep-convection combined with the increasing convective inhibition into KS, hedging to a mostly dry afternoon/evening across the forecast area. Short term satellite/radar trends will need to be monitored.

Thunderstorm chances are expected to increase late tonight into Saturday morning as portions of northern/eastern KS remain within the low/level baroclinic zone. A strengthening LLJ of 30-35 kt should provide a focal point for additional storm development from western into central NE. Mean storm motions are expected to be towards the southeast, bringing storm chances into portions of northern/eastern KS generally after 2-3 AM. The best storm chances extend generally along/east of I-135. Elevated instability up to 1500 J/kg combined with effective shear of 30-35 kt could support a large hail potential. DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg would support a damaging wind potential as well. As the LLJ weakens Saturday morning, the coverage of shower and storm activity should diminish.

The forecast area will remain within a northwest midlevel flow regime into next week, as subtle perturbations eject into Plains on a near-daily occurrence. This will support at least small storm chances, especially at night. This includes Saturday night into Sunday morning as convection develops across CO and gradually moves east into the Plains. The lack of obvious forcing for ascent lends to low confidence in storm coverage/timing.

In regards to temperatures, the core of the midlevel ridge will remain southwest of the forecast area over the next 7 days. This should keep the hottest temperatures southwest of the state with highs generally in the low to mid 90s each afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through most of the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to slowly move southeast across portions of southern/western NE. Satellite trends suggest these are weakening, leading to low confidence in these reaching central KS. Based off short term model trends have maintained a PROB30 at SLN but removed the mention at the remaining sites. A better potential for scattered thunderstorms is expected late tonight into Saturday morning, mainly across northern and eastern KS. Introduced an additional PROB30 at SLN and CNU to account for this potential.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.