textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily rain chances over the next week

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and again Saturday

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s to near 90

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

As of 230 AM Friday morning, a slow moving, midlevel shortwave trough continues to meander northeastward from portions of central and north-central KS. Scattered rain showers continue within the shortwave trough axis from central AR through north-central NE. As the trough axis glides northeast throughout the day today, rain chances will shift northeast as well. By late afternoon, a sharpening dryline will emerge across far western KS into the OK and TX Panhandles. A weak shortwave trough, currently across NM, will eject across the central/southern high Plains this afternoon into the evening. Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected along the dryline. A strengthening LLJ of 35-40 kt may allow for a thunderstorm cluster or two to reach central/south- central KS late this evening into tonight. Steep midlevel lapse rates (8-9 C/km) overtop of a moist boundary layer will result in 2000-3000 J/kg of elevated instability. Forecast wind profiles reveal a veering wind profile through 3 km with unidirectional flow from 3-6 km, resulting in 20-25 kt of effective shear. Therefore, the strongest storms this evening into tonight may contain hail near quarter size, wind gusts near 60 mph, and heavy rainfall.

Lingering low-level WAA driven showers and thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing across portions of eastern KS Saturday morning. The focus will shift to a sharpening dryline from west-central KS into western OK Saturday afternoon. Latest HREF guidance suggests sufficient convergence will occur along the dryline across KS and OK for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development by late afternoon. Similar to this evening and tonight, wind profiles reveal veering through 3 km with little acceleration above 3 km, resulting in effective shear values up to 30 kt. Midlevel lapse rates are forecast to steepen further to 9-9.5 C/km, resulting in 3500-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE. Large hail up to golf ball size will be possible, especially with any supercell-like structures. Downdraft CAPE up to 1500 J/kg will support wind gusts up to 70 mph. Initial isolated to scattered thunderstorms may grow upscale into clusters as the evening progresses and move east within a strengthening LLJ.

The active weather pattern will continue into next week with KS remaining on the northern periphery of a midlevel ridge across the southern Plains/southeast US. At this point, the potential for widespread severe weather appears low. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s to near 90.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 547 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

IFR to MVFR CIGS will continue across portions of central and southeast KS through mid-morning before CIGS return to VFR by early afternoon. Patchy fog is impacting portions of central KS with VSBY LIFR to VLIFR. This fog will dissipate around 13Z. Rain showers will remain near SLN through mid-morning before exiting the area. Additional showers and storms are possible late this evening into tonight but confidence is too for mention at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.