textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief warm-up for Thursday with another cold front moving through Thursday night into Friday, providing strong nw winds during the day Friday.

- Very high fire danger area wide on Friday afternoon due to strong northwest winds.

- Much colder temps for Saturday with highs not making it out of the 30s across the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Currently have an upper trough extending from the Great Lakes through the Western Ohio Valley and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Meanwhile, strong ridging remains over the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. At the surface, initial wind shift/weak cold front is making its way across the Lower Mississippi Valley and southeast TX, with a more impressive surge of cold air spilling south across IA/eastern NE into northern MO.

Very progressive pattern is expected to remain in place for Thu through the weekend. Upper flow over the Plains is expected to flatten out some for Thu as shortwave energy quickly dives southeast out of Alberta/Saskatchewan and into the Northern Plains by early Thu evening. By 12z Fri, upper trough will be digging across the Western Great Lakes through the Northern/Central Plains. This will setup strong pressure gradient across the Central Plains along with good mixing by the afternoon, setting the stage for strong northwest winds, especially across central KS. Northwest wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range will be possible, especially for areas along and west of I-135. Much colder air will continue to move- in from the north on Fri night into Sat morning and will provide some of the coldest air we've seen since around Dec 29th. Highs on Sat will not make it out of the 30s with lows Sun morning around 10 degrees. Bulk of the precip with this system will stay east of our forecast area, closer to the upper low.

By 12z Sun, very progressive shortwave will extend from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Mississippi Valley with strong northwest flow remaining over the Plains. There is good agreement between the GFS and ECMWF in a deep upper low sinking south out of Ontario into the Northern Great Lakes region Sun night. This will push yet another cold front through the area, knocking highs on Mon back into the 30s with a mid week warming trend anticipated.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1031 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. Light and variable winds will become southerly and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt by 15-16Z Thursday morning. A cold front will begin to progress across the area late Thursday morning into the afternoon, shifting winds from the west and northwest.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 215 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Very high grassland fire danger likely Friday afternoon.

Strong northwest winds are anticipated by Friday afternoon with sustained speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts 40 to 50 mph. The higher end of these speeds will be for areas along and northwest of the KS Turnpike. Afternoon RH values are forecast to around 30% for all of the area. These conditions will produce widespread very high fire danger, with the higher values for locations west of I- 135.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.