textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is not expected for several days as a weather pattern change takes shape across the central plains

- Cooler below normal temperatures for today through Friday along with a chance of scattered showers and weak storms possible on Thursday

- Warmer temperatures will build across Kansas for the weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Patchy frost early this morning with drier air and cooler temperatures overspreading the area, as surface high pressure builds southward across the central plains today.

A weather pattern shift to a northwest flow regime aloft will mature across the central plains for Thursday into early next week. This pattern change will force the very rich gulf moisture well south into the Gulf of Mexico which was responsible for the busy severe weather this past week. Confidence is high that it will take several days before any richer gulf moisture begins to stream back northward into Kansas, therefore severe weather is not anticipated.

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a couple upper level waves sinking southward across Canada early this morning. This energy will spread southward over Nebraska on Thursday inducing weak mid-level warm advection across western Kansas which will generate scattered showers/weak thunderstorms. In addition, noticeably colder air aloft associated with this upper wave looks to induce scattered diurnally driven high-based showers/storms in the afternoon over central/northeast Kansas. Moist adiabatic lapse rates and minimal MUCAPE keeps severe weather chances low. Can't totally rule out a few weak storms from trying to produce a brief period of pea hail given the very cold thermo profiles over northeast/central Kansas in the afternoon. Models show a second upper level wave pivoting southward from Nebraska into northern Kansas on Friday similar to Thursday. This could try and produce some isolated diurnally driven high-based showers again in the afternoon. Model soundings show the moisture depth aloft being reduced, therefore perhaps virga or isolated sprinkles.

The upper trough axis will shift slightly east heading into the weekend with gradual 500mb height rises across the central plains. This will allow warmer temperatures to build over Kansas for the weekend and into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A little BR with visibilities around 5sm will affect central early this morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail with mid- level clouds streaming overhead and light north winds during the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033- 047>049.