textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures forecast through the end of the week.

- Very high fire danger expected Tuesday afternoon, then again Friday and Saturday.

- Chances for light rain arrive late Wednesday into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict strong mid/upper northwesterly flow over the Northern Plains as the midlevel ridge continues to build in over the central and southern Rockies. A surface high resides in the Missouri River Valley and has allowed for the return of southerly winds across the area today. These are expected to continue through the overnight hours into Tuesday and strengthen ahead of an approaching surface trough. Gusts in the 25-30 mph range remain expected areawide overnight and should continue in southeast KS through Tuesday afternoon before weakening by evening. Little change in the upper pattern will allow for above normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday.

Midlevel energy tracking southeast across the Northern and Central Plains will drive a cold front through the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. The arrival of this boundary will provide chances for light rain throughout the area, with most mid-range guidance (LREF) maintaining accumulations less than 0.10" heading into Thursday morning. Slightly cooler air and light northerly winds behind the front will keep highs in the low 60s for Thursday before southwesterly winds return for Friday and promote highs near 70 degrees areawide.

The long-range suite continues to hint at another cold front arriving in the area Saturday into Saturday night amid near-zonal flow aloft. Temperatures behind this boundary are expected to return to near normal with highs near or below 50 degrees to close out the weekend. Additional precipitation chances may accompany the front as well, though details this far out remain unclear regarding onset and coverage. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds are generally at or under 10 knots out of the south this evening; however, winds should increase again overnight to around 15 to 20 knots. Additionally, a strong LLJ should support widespread LLWS overnight into Tuesday morning. By the afternoon hours, LLWS wanes, but surface winds should increase, mainly across southern and southeast Kansas. Locations along and east of the Flint Hills could see sustained winds to around 20 knots with gusts up to 30 knots. Meanwhile, across central Kansas, a slow moving cold front will support lighter winds and a gradual wind shift from southwesterly to northerly during the afternoon and evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Strong south/southwest winds gusting up to 30 mph will combine with RH values in the 20-30% range to produce very high grassland fire danger for areas primarily southeast of the Kansas Turnpike Tuesday afternoon. Similar weather conditions are expected to result in very high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours on Friday and Saturday primarily across the Flint Hills.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.