textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered storms possible this afternoon through Saturday morning. Strong to marginally severe storms possible this afternoon and evening with up to quarter size hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts possible.

- Low storm chances far southern Kansas Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning.

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING...

As of early this afternoon, a sharp deep layer trough was positioned over the Missouri River Valley with the primary trough axis draped over western Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles. At the surface, a weak frontal boundary is laid out across eastern and southern Kansas. As the aforementioned trough lumbers eastward this afternoon, just enough lift from subtle height falls aloft, weak confluence at the surface along the frontal boundary, and an uncapped environment should be enough for widely scattered diurnally driven storms late this afternoon into this evening. Both the kinematic and thermodynamic environments will be modestly supportive for organized storms later this afternoon and evening with 0-6km shear around 30-35 knots and MLCAPE around 1500-2000 J/kg. In general, quarter size hail and 60 mph wind gusts will be possible with any storm that manages to develop prior to sunset. After midnight, subtle mid-level WAA and along with some modest elevated instability should allow for a few showers and storms to fester overnight. However, severe weather is not anticipated with most storms that develop in this time frame. As the WAA weakens Saturday morning, rain chances will gradually come to a temporary end.

Storm chances Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning are highly dependent on where the frontal boundary is located. Trends in the latest guidance suggest the boundary will likely end up well into Oklahoma by Saturday afternoon which will keep storm chances primarily focused along the state line. However, a couple rouge storms will be possible as far north as US-54. Similar to today, any storm that develops will have the opportunity to become strong to marginally severe given modest, but sufficient, shear and instability. Storm chances should come to an end by Sunday morning across the area.

SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK...

As we head into next week, mid to long-range guidance continues to remain in agreement that a strong mid/upper ridge will build over the northern plains. With the center of this ridge forecast to be so far north, it currently appears as through the region will avoid the worst of the heat through midweek. There's still time for some changes, but as guidance has been very consistent on this for awhile now, confidence is fairly high that temperatures to start off next week will be near average. However, by the end of the week and into next weekend, the primary ridge axis looks to centered over the Lower Missouri and Mississippi River Valleys, which would support the potential for hotter temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop over southern Kansas later this evening. This activity could impact KICT/KCNU taf sites, otherwise remaining sites in central Kansas will see prevailing northeast winds switching to the east by Saturday morning with VFR conditions expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.