textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible from late this afternoon through late Saturday night. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

- Chances for rain showers and storms will return Tuesday and continue through late next week.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated for Sunday and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Currently, there in an upper shortwave trough over the Northern Plains with southwesterly flow aloft over our forecast area. A weak cold front is draping down from a low in South Dakota through Nebraska into central Kansas. Widely scattered storms continue in eastern Kansas with much of our area seeing dewpoints in the lower 60s. As we continue into late this afternoon and evening, diurnal heating combined with decent moisture will lead to instability values between 1000-1500 J/kg. Additional widely scattered showers and storms are likely to develop along the cold front as it slowly continues to move east/southeast with the better chances in central to south-central KS. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out this afternoon and evening, but given the lack of wind shear, severe storm chances remain very low. For tonight, another weak shortwave will move into the Central Plains which may result in showers and storms lingering in southern to southeast KS into Saturday morning, but strong to severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

For Saturday and Saturday night, the aforementioned weak shortwave will continue to propagate east through the Central Plains. The cold front is progged to stall over southeast KS with decent moisture remaining over southern KS. These features combined may lead to additional shower and storm chances over southern to southeast KS throughout the day Saturday. There is some model discrepancies with moisture and instability, resulting in uncertainty with chances for showers and storms, though confidence is high on strong to severe storm chances remaining very low given the weak effective wind shear and mid-level lapse rates generally around 6.5 C/km. Slightly below normal temperatures will continue into Saturday afternoon as highs rise into the 70s areawide.

By Sunday, flow aloft will become more zonal as the shortwave trough moves into the Great Lakes area and shortwave ridging builds into the Plains. Thickness will start to increase on Sunday, promoting a warming trend across the region. High temperatures are anticipated to rise into the lower 80s which is close to normal for this time of year. These warm and dry conditions will continue into Monday with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s on Monday afternoon.

Periodic rain showers and storms may return to the forecast on Tuesday and continue through much of the week as weak shortwave troughs eject out into the Plains ahead of a deeper upper trough over the western CONUS. Given the weak upper flow progged from model guidance, severe weather looks to remain very low. For temperatures, highs are progged to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s through much of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Main concern in the near term is a few thunderstorms near the cold front which would impact KICT; lightning is the main concern. The next round could move in after 6z for south central and southeast Kansas; PROB30 groups were kept for the southern terminals due to questionable coverage. MVFR ceilings are anticipated for KCNU early Saturday morning. Some models suggest IFR instead, but it was decided to stay a category higher for now given potential precipitation activity around. Light and variable winds should persist.

Another round of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms is anticipated for Saturday afternoon with higher confidence east of the Turnpike. A PROB30 was used for KCNU which may be changed to a prevailing group with an upcoming issuance. KICT is on the edge, and it was decided to leave out for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.