textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue today into the early evening with heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Dry weekend ahead with comfortable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Powerful upper low is now lifting out across southwest KS/OK Panhandle with a strong upper jet extending from the TX Panhandle through Central KS. At the surface, low is located near Dodge City with a weak cold front/trough extending from the low into north central KS and southeast NE.

Strong 850-700mb theta-e advection is resulting in a large area of showers and storms moving across central and eastern OK and will lift across the Flint Hills into eastern KS this morning. With extreme PW values still in place, very high rainfall rates will be likely with any of the activity this morning, which could lead to some flooding.

Upper low will quickly slide east and start get sheared apart today. As this occurs, surface low and associated cold front/trough will sink south. So the main area of rainfall for today through the early evening hours will be in the wrap around region of this system as the strong mid level frontogenesis slides south. Any of this activity will likely still produce high rainfall rates and due to the slow movement, flooding will remain the main risk through the late afternoon/early evening hours. Also feel like there will be a chance for the stronger storms to produce some small hail given cooler mid/upper temps and decent deep layer shear. The main limiting factor will be poor mid level lapse rates.

Showers and storms will continue to sink south tonight as the upper trough also slides southeast and by Fri morning, bulk of the rainfall will be south of the forecast area. This will leave dry conditions in place through the weekend as we eventually get into some northwest flow aloft. To start the work week, a deep upper trough will stretch from eastern Ontario/western Quebec and down through the Great Lakes. This will leave upper ridging in place from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains. We look to get back into a warming trend for Tue into Wed as the sfc high shifts east allowing Plains to get back into some return flow.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Ceilings will start to drop to MVFR and IFR at all sites during the overnight hours into this morning. Another round of showers is progressing from northern Oklahoma into southern Kansas and will likely impact ICT and CNU around 08z. Low ceilings and reduced visibility are likely through much of the day today. Ceilings will lift from north to south across the area starting in central KS around 02z Friday. Additional storm development is anticipated to initiate in central KS late this morning around 16z-17z with storms forecast to develop in south-central KS after 20z. Storms will start to dissipate after 00z as they continue to progress east.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ032-033-047>049.