textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- The stretch of hot temperatures will continue through much of the next week

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible this morning across central KS and this afternoon across eastern KS

- Additional rain chances return Tuesday night and beyond

- Strong cold front next weekend?

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

As of 230 AM Sunday, a highly amplified midlevel ridge across the central US is flanked by troughs on each coast. A complex of thunderstorms continues to move across portions of western NE and within a broad zone of 850-700 mb WAA. As the LLJ veers near dawn this morning, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across central KS. Later this afternoon, a weak low-level baroclinic zone across eastern KS will overlap with a very moist airmass comprised of PW values up to 2". By mid-afternoon up to 1000 J/kg of MLCAPE will develop across eastern KS (generally east of I-135). This is likely to yield at least isolated thunderstorms. Similar to Saturday, effective shear will remain 20-25 kt, supporting mainly pulse convection. DCAPE up to 1300 J/kg may support localized downbursts near 60 mph. A similar scenario may play out Monday afternoon across eastern KS. In regards to temperatures, with the ridge axis overhead, afternoon highs near 100 degrees are expected area-wide through Tuesday. The Heat Advisory remains in effect through Tuesday evening.

Mid to long range guidance are trending towards an end of the long stretch of unseasonably hot temperatures. The initial pattern change begins late Tuesday into Wednesday as a midlevel shortwave trough ejects across the northern Plains, leaving zonal midlevel flow in its wake. In addition, a surface cold front will slowly move across the region Wednesday into Thursday. This frontal passage should yield increasing rain chances and high temperatures closer to normal in the low 90s. A secondary surface trough will develop across the high Plains late Thursday into Friday ahead of a stronger midlevel shortwave trough. With the return of southerly low-level flow, temperatures will return to the mid and upper 90s Friday and Saturday. The aforementioned shortwave trough is progged to eject into the northern Plains late Saturday, shunting a strong cold front through the area late Saturday night into Sunday. This frontal passage may be accompanied by widespread rainfall as well. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Isolated showers/storms are possible near GBD and RSL through 15Z but the lack of coverage only prompts a PROB30 mention for now. Southerly winds will increase across central KS to 10-15 kt by mid- morning. Isolated storms are possible across eastern KS this afternoon. To account for this potential, a PROB30 has been introduced at CNU from 19-01Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.