textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over south-central and southeast KS.

- After a mild Thursday, another round of severe storms is possible Friday afternoon and evening, especially for areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

- A strong cold front will usher in drier air and below normal temperatures for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 313 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Currently, the trough axis extends across the Rockies and will begin to lift across the Plains tonight. The frontal boundary that passed across our area yesterday is now stalled across southern Kansas. As we progress through the afternoon hours, the stationary boundary will lift north as a warm front. Concurrently, a dryline to the west will begin to march eastward just as the potent shortwave begins to lift into the Central Plains. Convection will initially develop along the dryline and warm front as semi discrete cells across south-central and southeast Kansas. These initial storms will pose a large hail and wind threat, along with the potential for a few isolated tornadoes. The elongated hodographs indicate that with time, storms will evolve into a broken line extending north to south with the warm frontal activity lifting north out of our area. These storms will then pose primarily a wind threat, with isolated large hail and tornado threat continuing. With above normal PWATs between 1-1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a concern, especially across southeast Kansas. Storms will diminish and shift out of the forecast area generally between 06-09Z. A few showers may linger across our far southeastern Kansas counties on Thursday morning, but will quickly exit to the east. Cloud cover will diminish through the morning with mostly clear conditions areawide by the afternoon. Temperatures for Thursday will remain slightly above normal in the post- frontal air mass with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s.

Brief clearing ahead of the next system and subtle ridging on Friday will allow for temperatures to rebound to slightly above normal with highs reaching into the 70s and lower 80s. The next trough will swing across the central U.S. late Friday and into the weekend. Another surface low will eject off the Central Rockies by midday Friday dragging with it a frontal boundary that will initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms for Friday evening through early Saturday morning. Surface based CAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg and modest shear will support additional severe thunderstorm activity. Once again, initial storm mode looks to be discrete cells, then merging into a line of storms that pushes east with the cold front. Model guidance currently indicates storm development will occur generally along the Turnpike during the late afternoon hours and the progress eastward through the evening, exiting the forecast area shortly after midnight.

Behind this deeper, more potent trough, much cooler temperatures are expected for this upcoming weekend with highs reaching only into the 60s areawide. Then ridging will begin to build in over the central part of the U.S. by early week allowing for a modest warm-up through mid-week with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s under mostly clear skies. High pressure will shift off to the east on Monday, turning our winds southerly through the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Aviation concerns for the period are some lower ceilings trying to move in from the east but seem to have stalled. Expecting MVFR to VFR conditions for the afternoon. Thunderstorm development is expected over southeast Kansas late this afternoon which should impact CNU of and on through probably at least 07Z. Storms will start to ramp up later this evening as the main system begins to move through before clearing from west to east with strong southerly winds developing with the strongest over southeast Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A very High fire weather danger may return to parts of central Kansas on Friday and Saturday, but locations in south central and southeast Kansas will see multiple opportunities for wetting rains limiting the fire weather concerns in those areas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.