textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures on Saturday with highs 15-20 degrees above normal.

- Strong cold front moving through on Sunday bringing much colder air and possible snow showers on Sunday afternoon through the evening. Additionally, northwesterly winds are expected to gust up to 50-60 mph on Sunday.

- Substantial warm-up expected mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper shortwave trough spinning over the Great Lakes area with its associated surface low sitting over Michigan and a cold draped down through the Ohio Valley and into the Lower Mississippi Valley. In our area, northwesterly flow aloft continues with relatively light winds at the surface and high temperatures rising into the 60s.

On Saturday morning, a shortwave trough will move into the northwestern CONUS and is progged to move into the Northern and Central Rockies by late Saturday afternoon. This will strengthen lee troughing resulting in an increase in southerly winds on Saturday afternoon. Given low-level southwesterly flow and increased surface winds, highs on Saturday are expected to rise into the 70s across the area.

The aforementioned shortwave trough over the Central Rockies will continue to dig late Saturday night and eject into the Plains by Sunday morning. This will push a deep surface low and strong cold front through the Central Plains on Sunday morning. Behind this front, strong northwesterly winds are expected in the morning through Sunday evening. Sustained winds are forecast to be between 35 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph especially for areas west of the Flint Hills. Given this potential, a High Wind Watch has been issued for central, south-central and portions of southeast KS. Additionally, much colder air will push south resulting in temperatures dropping throughout the day on Sunday. Along with this, a chance for snow showers is possible in the afternoon and the evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and benign surface CAPE could lead to bursts of moderate snowfall. At this time, little accumulation is expected with mainly a dusting anticipated across parts of central and eastern KS where colder surface temperatures will be. This may lead to patchy slick spots especially on bridges and elevated surfaces, otherwise little to no impacts are anticipated at this time. Farther south, a mix of rain showers and snow showers is possible but given the warmer surface temperatures, confidence is low on any accumulation. Stay tuned as we refine this forecast.

By Monday, the potent upper trough will shift into the Mississippi Valley with the deep surface low over the Great Lakes area. Breezy northwesterly winds and colder temperatures will lead to wind chills in the single digits with values near zero across much of the area. For Tuesday and beyond, upper-level ridging will amplify developing a northwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Ridging is progged to remain in place through the work week with thickness also increasing. High temperatures will begin warming on Tuesday and continue rising with 80s expected areawide by late work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1235 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Northeast winds around 10 to 15 mph with some gusts over 20 mph at times will gradually diminish as we move through the day. Light southeast winds will return tonight becoming breezy as we move into the afternoon hours on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 337 PM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and increased southerly winds will lead to Very High grassland fire danger on Saturday afternoon mainly across central KS. Critical fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not expected.

For Sunday, northwesterly winds will gust up to 50-60 mph causing Very High grassland fire danger. However, given the much colder temperatures moving in along with relative humidity above 45% and some precipitation chances, fire danger concerns should be more limited.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094.