textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated storms across eastern Kansas this afternoon and evening. A strong storm or two producing small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rainfall.

- Warming trend through early next week. Heat indices between 105 to 110 across southern and southeast Kansas possible Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 401 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

A typical, tropical-like, summertime airmass remains in place across eastern Kansas today. The primary PWAT axis is draped from south- central Missouri to the Flint Hills. With little to no capping across this area, pop-up showers and storms are anticipated. However, poor lapse rates and essentially little to no flow will significantly limit storm intensity. Still, a strong storm or two producing small hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. With the loss of diurnal heating around sunset, rain chances along and east of the Flint Hills should gradually decrease. Quiet, mild, and humid conditions are expected tonight with lows generally in the low 70s.

An additional slug of moisture will slosh into southeast Kansas late Friday morning into Friday afternoon. Similar to today, despite poor lapse rates and weak flow aloft, ample low-level moisture (with PWATs over 2 inches) and little to no capping should support at least isolated showers and storms across southeast Kansas during the afternoon and evening. Coverage in showers and storms should decrease with the loss of diurnal heating after sunset. Again, similar to today, despite the overall environment significantly limiting storm intensity, a strong storm or two producing small hail, gusty downburst winds, and brief heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK...

With the weakening of the upper low over western Texas, the long wave ridge overspreading much of the central CONUS will strengthen and serve as the primary driver for a warming trend this weekend and into the beginning of next week. Both the deterministic and ensemble global guidance shows the strength of this mid/upper ridge will likely occur on Monday and Tuesday. Probabilities showing max temperatures at or over 100 degrees across the forecast area from ensemble guidance are around 70-95%, and probabilities of max temperatures above 110 is around 10-40%. Needless to say, regardless of the eventual highs both Monday and Tuesday, the signal from mid- to-long range guidance is hot!

A back door cold front on Wednesday will knock temperatures down a bit, then guidance begins to deviate thereafter. Some of the long range guidance, like the GFS/GEFS, shows the potential for some active weather. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/EPS shows a scenario where the upper ridge builds in across the area, and much warmer temperatures continue.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Main aviation concern will once again be shower and storm chances.

Scattered showers and storms continue across mainly central and eastern KS early this evening and will continue for another hour or two. KCNU-KSLN-KRSL will be the sites most likely affected. Just like last evening, they should dissipate near or after sunset. We may see a repeat on Fri, but with slightly less coverage. For now will just mention VCSH at KCNU and leave showers/storms out at remaining sites. Winds will remain out of the southeast tonight and come around to the southwest by late Fri morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.