textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures through Thursday

- Strong cold front arrives Thursday night plunging temperatures into the 10s/20s for Saturday and Sunday

- Increasing potential (60-80%) for accumulating snow Friday and Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

As of 3 PM Tuesday afternoon, large scale midlevel troughing remains across the eastern CONUS with northwesterly flow across the central and northern Plains. A weak shortwave trough was advancing across the northern high Plains. An attendant surface trough axis extends from northeast WY through southeast CO. A strengthening surface pressure gradient is contributing to southerly winds at 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Temperatures have warmed into the 40s areawide.

Transitioning into tonight, the weak shortwave trough will dive across the central Plains, shunting the aforementioned surface trough through the area. Quickly on its heels, an area of surface high pressure will slide across the high Plains of CO/TX Wednesday morning, resulting in westerly low-level flow by Wednesday afternoon. This will allow temperatures to remain in the 40s to near 50 once again. The next weak perturbation will slide across the mid- MO valley late Wednesday into Thursday, shunting the next cold front through the area. Temperatures will top out in the 40s Thursday afternoon.

The main concern over the next 7 days arrives Friday into Saturday. A strong shortwave trough is poised to eject across the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday, plunging an Arctic airmass across the Plains. Friday morning temperatures will range from the single digits across central KS to the teens across southern KS. Factoring in a northern breeze up to 20 mph will create wind chill values as cold as -15. The cold plunge will continue into Friday and Saturday as NBM probabilities continue to increase for daytime highs remaining into the teens each day. As it stands now, Friday's probabilities range from near 50% along the OK border to near 100% along I-70. These probabilities expand and increase to 80-100% areawide for Saturday afternoon. In regards to overnight lows, NBM probabilities range from 70-100% for temperatures less than 10 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings. Factoring in the continued north wind will create wind chill values as cold as -20 Saturday and Sunday mornings.

In regards to precipitation chances, the shortwave trough passage across the Great Lakes will strengthen a midlevel jet streak from the mid-MS valley through the northeast US Friday into Saturday. It's becoming increasingly likely the right entrance of this jet streak will provide sufficient large scale ascent for light snow from late Friday into Saturday. The arrival of the Arctic air will usher in a tremendously dry boundary layer, characterized of dew points in the -20 to -30 degree range. These will contribute to dew point depressions of 25-35 degrees. This may delay the onset of snowfall Friday afternoon/evening. As large scale ascent increases Friday evening/Friday night, top-down saturation should occur from southwest to northeast across the region with snowfall beginning. Forecast soundings reveal a deep isothermal layer throughout the dendritic growth zone (upwards of 3km from 1-4km). This combined with the bitterly cold temperatures will support above-normal snow to liquid ratios. Latest NBM 25th to 75th percentile guidance for snow-to-liquid ratios range from 14-15:1 to 17-18:1. While deterministic guidance amongst GFS and ECMWF diverge greatly on QPF amounts Friday and Saturday, their ensemble suites are largely aligned with the highest QPF amounts remaining along the OK border, where generally 0.25-0.40" is possible. These amounts gradually decrease with northward extent towards 0.10-0.20" along the I-70 corridor. Bottom line, confidence continues to increase for an impactful winter storm, especially across southern KS. Stay tuned for forecast refinements over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1030 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Only aviation concern will be a brief wind shift to move through tonight.

Wind shift is currently just north of I-70 and is continuing to push south. It will move through the entire forecast area tonight, flipping winds around to the northwest with a few gusts to 25 mph possible. By the early afternoon hours, winds will turn back to the west and southwest. High and mid clouds are currently on the increase with high confidence they will remain at VFR levels.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.