textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A slight chance for showers/thunderstorms late tonight through Thursday morning west of the Flint Hills, but confidence is low.

- After a period of mostly dry weather, increasing off-and-on thunderstorm chances Sunday evening through mid next week.

- A return to well above average temperatures this weekend through about mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

FOG:

EARLY THIS MORNING...Radiational cooling amidst rich low-level moisture may support patchy fog early this morning generally north of a line extending from Great Bend to Newton to Chanute. Widespread dense fog appears unlikely given unfavorable northerly flow and dense high level clouds moving in from the west.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE TONIGHT--THURSDAY MORNING...Increasing 850-700mb warm/moist advection in response to another shortwave dropping southeast over the Upper Mississippi Valley may support increasing chances for showers/thunderstorms late tonight over Nebraska and north-central KS, with this activity possibly propagating south-southeast Thursday morning for locations mainly west of the Flint Hills. Forcing is rather weak, and not all models indicate this activity, so confidence is rather low regarding this scenario panning out. Hence, we only went with 20 PoPs for now late tonight through Thursday AM.

SUNDAY EVENING--MID NEXT WEEK...The upper ridge finally shifts east from the southwest to the south-central and southeast CONUS by this weekend, as various shortwaves gradually dig across the northern and western CONUS. This pattern change should allow a weak cold front to move in from the north and stall across the region, with the potential for increasing off-and-on thunderstorm chances late Sunday evening through about mid next week. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details.

TEMPERATURES:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus is in good agreement surrounding the return of triple digit to near triple digit heat this weekend through at least early to mid next week, as the stout southwest CONUS upper ridge shifts east over the south-central and southeast CONUS. The longevity of this heat wave will be determined by how far south a stalled frontal zone reaches. Thinking by late late next week, it's possible this frontal zone will be south of the region, supporting somewhat cooler temperatures by then. Some relief amidst this incoming heat wave will be lower dewpoints and breezy/gusty south to southwest winds aiding in evaporative effects on skin.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Some IFR to LIFR conditions will persist across portions of central and east-central Kansas through about 14z this morning. Covered this threat with TEMPO groups at most TAF sites. After 14z, fairly quiet weather should prevail today and most of tonight. Later tonight after about 09-10z, increasing 850-700mb warm/moist advection may support increasing thunderstorm chances at RSL and GBD. Covered this threat with PROB30.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for KSZ052-053.