textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated thunderstorm possible by late afternoon/evening across central/eastern Kansas, though most locations should remain dry.

- Dry weather expected through at least Tuesday, then shower/storm chances return Wednesday evening and last through week's end.

- Gradual warming trend expected through the middle of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon indicate a weak mid/upper wave tracking south over the Missouri River Valley as upper ridging continues over the Desert Southwest. Weak surface winds have been observed across the forecast area in the wake of Saturday's storm system. With mid-level energy tracking southward throughout the day, we continue to see the potential for an isolated shower or storm across portions of central and southeast KS later this afternoon and evening. Gusty winds will be the primary threat with the strongest activity, though with point soundings indicating a fair cap in place across the area, not expecting this to produce widespread storms. Due to this and better support further east, decided to maintain the silent storm chances from the previous cycle.

Model consensus highlights the mid-level ridge building eastward Monday and Tuesday which will support a slight warming trend. Temperatures look to return to the middle 90s by Wednesday, and we may even see heat indices around 105 by the end of the week across southern KS. However, several low-amplitude shortwaves are progged to arrive in the Plains as ridging breaks down toward the latter half of the week. This is anticipated to drive a slow-moving frontal zone through the region which should allow for showers and storms to return to the forecast area, particularly during the evening and overnight hours beginning Wednesday and lasting into Saturday morning. This in turn may keep temperatures and heat index values slightly lower than currently forecast. Stay tuned as we continue to refine details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1219 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Low clouds from this morning have dissipated. VFR conditions and light winds can be expected through the remainder of this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.