textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase in coverage over southeast KS this afternoon, then again Saturday evening into early Sunday morning across parts of the area. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Hot next week (Tue-Fri) with highs in the 90s for many areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A pv anomaly rotating out of the Central High Plains will allow a frontal boundary to move south and east across the area today. This front may become a focus for showers and thunderstorms after 20-21Z when the cap weakens. This will favor areas south and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Modest moisture in the pbl and steep mid-level lapse rates may result in MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG with westerly oriented deep layer shear vectors around 45 knots. We could see some storm organization although considerable veered unidirectional flow through the column and marginal moisture in the pbl may preclude more robust activity. This activity is expected to diminish and move south and east of the area during the evening hours.

Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail on Saturday as another shortwave trough is progged to dig out of the Northern Rockies late in the period. This will force a frontal boundary southward over Kansas during the overnight hours. As a subtle LLJ noses into south central KS, we could see some elevated showers and thunderstorms develop along and behind the advancing cold front during the overnight hours. A stable post-frontal regime is progged to build over the area in the wake of the front with seasonable air and breezy northeast winds early in the day slowly diminishing as we move through the period.

A mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify over the western CONUS early in the week before translating slowly eastward as we move through the week. We could see a couple of subtle shortwave troughs move through this ridge late in the week bringing a chance of storms to the area but the general theme will be hot and dry.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 100 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Winds continue to veer to the WSW and will shift to the north in the wake of a frontal boundary before becoming light tonight. Some showers and storms may develop along the frontal boundary impacting southeast KS including CNU in the 20Z-23Z timeframe. MVFR/IFR may be possible under a shower/storm while VFR is expected in the wake of the front.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.