textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy with very high to extreme grassfire danger this afternoon.

- Near or below average temperatures through Monday.

- Light snow and flurries mainly across central Kansas late Friday into Friday night. Accumulation less than one-half inch.

- Warming trend as we move into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A shortwave trough was evident on water vapor imagery emerging from the Rockies over the Central/Northern Plains early this morning. Low pressure at the sfc over the Central High Plains is progged to move ESE through the morning hours tracking across south central Kansas early in the day before arriving over northeast Kansas by midday. This will allow a cold front to arrive by lunch time for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike while spreading eastward into southeast Kansas during the afternoon hours. Upstream temperatures across the Northern High Plains were very cold ranging from the single digits below zero to the teens. This modified arctic airmass will be advected south today and maximum temperatures were trended lower, especially in central KS where afternoon temperatures will likely fall into the 20s before sunset. Relatively deep vertical mixing ahead of the front will result in gusty southwest winds across southern Kansas within a dry pbl resulting in elevated fire weather concerns. Some pooling of dewpoints along the frontal zone may allow for some temporary recovery in relative humidity before drier and colder air is advected into the area in the post-frontal airmass.

Sfc high pressure will settle over the area early on Friday resulting in light winds with below normal temperatures prevailing. Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies late Friday ushering in a reinforcing shot of cold air and bringing some snow flurries or light snow to the area mainly on Friday night along the I-70 corridor. We are not expecting big impacts with this progressive system. A brief period of snow may be possible along the frontal zone as the pv anomaly rotates over the area Friday night. Some locations could see a light dusting before the light wintry precipitation diminishes during the predawn hours on Sat.

Sat-Mon...Northwest mid/upper flow will prevail across the Central Plains through the period with another reinforcing shot of cold air possible on Sunday keeping temperatures below average through the period.

As we move into Tue and beyond, a mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward over the central CONUS bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Highs in the 60s and 70s are expected to return toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 519 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

An area of low pressure over south central Kansas will move slowly eastward through the day. Eventually south and southwest winds in parts of south central and southeast Kansas will shift to the northwest in the wake of a cold front. We could see some 25 or 30 knot gusts at times.

Winds will slowly decrease across the area as we move into the evening hours with northwest around 10 knots toward morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 156 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

A cold front will bring a wind shift to the area today, with gusty northwest winds expected behind the front. Gusts up to around 35 mph are expected at times. This combined with low humidity and above average temperatures will result in a very high to extreme fire danger over southern Kansas, where a red flag warning is in effect.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for KSZ072-091>096-098>100.