textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms before midnight, especially the northeast quarter of Kansas.

- Well above average temperatures through Saturday, with a return to mostly below average temperatures by Saturday night and extending through at least early next week.

- Elevated grassfire danger possible Friday.

- Wintry mix possible Saturday night through Monday morning.

- Off-and-on unsettled pattern next week, with periodic rain and thunderstorm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

TEMPERATURES:

THROUGH SATURDAY...Well above average temperatures look to persist through Saturday, due to above average heights/thickness and persistent south-southwesterly low-level flow. A cold front will progress south through the region tonight, but temperatures Thursday should still be fairly mild and similar to today since the airmass will be mostly Pacific in origin.

LATE SATURDAY--EARLY NEXT WEEK...A digging central and eastern North American upper trough is expected to drive a cold front south across the region by late Saturday or Saturday night, with a likely return to below average temperatures in its wake. For now the NBM just trended temperatures a bit cooler, but if model trends continue wouldn't be surprised if later NBM runs come in much cooler for Sunday and Monday, with highs only in the 30s-40s possible. These shallow cold airmasses tend to come in faster and colder than advertised. Average highs this time of year are mostly in the 50s.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...An eventual warm-up looks probable as we head into mid-late next week, as western CONUS upper troughing increases heights/thickness and low-level southerly flow across Mid-America.

PRECIPITATION:

THIS EVENING...A fleet-footed low-amplitude shortwave along with an associated deep cold frontal zone will be the focus for scattered showers this evening moving southeast across the region. Thinking activity will be most widespread over mainly over the northeast quarter of Kansas. Additionally, given rather steep mid-level lapse rates and decent frontal forcing, wouldn't be surprised to see a few thunderstorms before 8-9pm north of Highway 56. Severe weather absolutely is not expected, although a dry sub-cloud layer may support gusty winds with this activity. Thinking most activity should exit southeast Kansas by around midnight.

SATURDAY NIGHT--MONDAY MORNING...This period will need to be watched for a possible wintry mix of precipitation, as a shallow cold airmass oozes in from the north-northeast, with low- amplitude shortwave energy acting on the deep frontal zone in place across the region. Given a fairly stout warm nose aloft atop the shallow chilly airmass, the synoptic setup would favor mainly sleet and/or freezing rain where temperatures are cold enough. There still remains lots of uncertainty surrounding this period with many different forecast outcomes possible. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

NEXT WEEK...An off-and-on active weather pattern looks to continue next week, and possible even into next weekend, as deterministic and ensemble consensus digs a train of deep upper troughs into the western CONUS and eventually into Mid-America. Warming temperatures should keep these precipitation chances all liquid. Increasing low- level moisture and precipitable waters in concert with the periodic strong forcing may support meaningful rainfall amounts, with increasing instability even supporting thunderstorm chances at times. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1128 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Largely south/southwest winds are expected through the afternoon hours before a wind shift to the north behind an approaching cold front this evening. Guidance continues to highlight the potential for a period of stronger winds immediately following this boundary with sustained speeds in the 12-15 kt range and gusts up to 25 kts, especially in central and south central KS. Light rain showers remain possible with the frontal passage as well, though impacts should be minimal. As such, decided to introduce VCSH at RSL/SLN/CNU where confidence in coverage is highest at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Very high grassfire danger may return Friday afternoon across the region, as warm temperatures (70s) and humidity in the 20s percent overlap west-southwesterly winds up to 20 mph. We do not think fire danger will be red flag/critical, although very high grassland fire danger is possible.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.