textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild above average temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 70s.

- Gusty southerly winds will result in very high grassland fire danger over parts of central and south central KS Today-Wednesday.

- Strong and severe storms will be possible late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

A cold front was bisecting Kansas during the overnight hours and stretched from just south of the I-70 corridor in central and western Kansas into parts of east central Kansas around 2 am. This front may continue to settle slowly southward approaching south central Kansas by daybreak before lifting northward as a warm front as we move through the morning hours today. Some moisture pooling was noted along the frontal zone but this will shift northward as we move through the day with dry conditions prevailing once again. Breezy southerly winds at 15 to 25 mph with some higher gusts will prevail across the area this afternoon as highs climb into the low 70s.

A mid/upper trough over the Northern Rockies is progged emerge over the Northern Plains tonight. This will allow a pocket of steep mid- lvl lapse rates to expand ENE over the Central Plains while low level moisture continues to struggle to rebound over the area. As we move into Wed, a trailing cold front extending southward from the mid/upper trough over the Northern Plains and into northwest Kansas may become a focus for showers and storms late in the period with better chances late Wed night as a meager LLJ noses into central KS. We finally start to see some recovery in the low level moisture as we move through the overnight hours but confidence in more widespread wetting rains remains fairly low at this time. Some mid pops were maintained as we see decent mid-lvl waa across the H7 baroclinic zone late in the period. Another mild day is expected over the area on Wed with above average highs in the low to mid 70s.

Modified gulf moisture finally arrives over the area on Thursday as we remain on the southern periphery of the more robust mid-lvl flow. A moist and unstable airmass could allow for some widely scattered diurnally driven storms along the dryline on Thu. A few strong or severe storms will be hard to rule out given steep mid-lvl lapse rates/moderate MLCAPE and around 35-40 knots of deep layer shear.

Fri-Sat...A cold front is progged to sag southward into southern KS on Friday briefly before stalling and returning northward Fri night into Saturday. This will likely be a focus for another round of showers and storms on Fri. The airmass will continue to support some strong/severe storms on Fri. By Sat, a shortwave trough is progged to lift out of the Southern Rockies in southwest mid/upper flow as a 100 knot upper jet noses into the area late in the period bringing continued chances for strong and severe storms to the area. Repeated rounds of showers and storms could lead to flooding concerns given PWATs progged around 1.4 inches on Sat which is well over the 90th percentile for all OUN soundings and at or over the max for TOP.

We could see another in a series of shortwave troughs lift out of the large-scale trough over the Southwest bringing another round of severe storms to the area on Sunday.

A brief lull is anticipated on Monday as we see shortwave ridging build over the area with continued southwest mid/upper flow. Another robust mid/upper trough is progged to lift over the area on Tuesday bringing another round of severe weather to the area.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

East and northeast winds early in the morning will gradually veer to the south and southeast as we move through the day. Some gusts over 25 mph will be possible at times with only some passing cirrus from time-to-time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 AM CDT Tue Apr 7 2026

Breezy southerly winds, mild temperatures, and lower relative humidity will result in very high grassland fire danger for portions of central and south central Kansas this afternoon and again on Wednesday during the afternoon hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.