textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Intense line of storms likely on Tuesday afternoon-night; however low confidence on timing and location.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Friday could present a heavy rain and flooding threat.

- Much warmer conditions this weekend. Heat and humidity could present some concerns during the afternoon hours.

..TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING

The warm, soupy, humid airmass will return as early as late Tuesday morning as dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s surge northward. This will support a marked increase in instability across the region. A number of solutions are being presented from the short term guidance this morning, and they all have some support which is making the forecast over the next 36-48 hours extremely tricky and uncertain.

Some of the short term guidance shows an organized MCS developing across southern and central Nebraska during the early morning hours on Tuesday and diving southward into Kansas during the afternoon hours. Others show disorganized convection developing along the baroclinic zone lifting northward across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours followed by an intense MCS moving off the High Plains and pushing across the forecast area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Either way, the likelihood of an intense MCS impacting at least a portion of the forecast area is rather high, but the exact timing and location is still in question. Like mentioned previously, the environment, regardless of the time of day, will be very supportive of an intense MCS with bowing segments and perhaps a couple brief QLCS tornadoes. Raw model output from various CAMs explicitly show 70-90 mph wind gusts as this MCS traverses across the area. This is generally supported by 2000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 0-6 km shear of at least 50 knots, and favorable low- level instability and shear regardless of the time of day. Storm chances should gradually end from north to south early Wednesday morning. In the wake of this MCS, a more stable airmass is likely to settle in; however, there are hints that some instability could sneak back northward by late Wednesday evening, and another MCS may attempt to track along the instability gradient along the KS/OK border late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

...THURSDAY AND BEYOND..

Uncertainty in the forecast only increases heading into Thursday and Friday, although the upper patterns remains supportive of active weather through the end of the work week. The latest run of global mid range models seems to be zeroing in on storms most likely occurring Thursday night into Friday morning with the potential of lingering showers and storms Friday afternoon. However, the exact evolution of this activity, including exact timing and location, is still in question. Given all of the recent rainfall, the most obvious threat will be river flooding and flash flooding. Guidance continues to show a very moist airmass with PWATs above 1.8" across much of the area which will likely lead to very high rainfall rates with any showers and storms that develop Thursday and Friday.

Heading into the weekend, much of the persistent upper flow that has been driving this very active stretch is forecast to shift northward as a broad upper ridge builds across the southern and southeast CONUS. Guidance this far out is likely a little on the hot side in regards to temperatures, especially given how much residual moisture will likely linger from all of the rainfall across the area. That being said, even afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s could present heat concerns if dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

MVFR ceilings continue at terminal sites in south-central and southeast KS with clouds eroding in central KS. MVFR ceilings should lift to VFR early this afternoon for HUT and ICT with CNU expected to lift late this afternoon. Relatively light easterly winds at or below 10 kts are anticipated through the afternoon with light winds shifting to southeasterly mainly in central KS after 06z. A chance for storms may be possible after 16z in central KS, but given high uncertainty on timing and location of storms, decided not to include in this issuance.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.