textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chance for storms over southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon with an isolated storm possible Tuesday night.

- Heat returns Wednesday afternoon along with possible severe storms impacting southeast Kansas Wednesday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Another pleasant weather day today as sfc high pressure translates eastward into the Middle Mississippi Valley area and southerly winds return to the area. A shortwave trough pivoting over the Upper Mississippi Valley area will drive a weak frontal boundary southward into the Central Plains tonight. We continue to see a weak signal for some showers and perhaps a few elevated storms over parts of central Kansas late tonight although higher probabilities will remain across northeast KS.

This weak mid-lvl waa will shift into southern/southeast Kansas as we move into the day on Tue before waning. Some subtle height rises/increasing H10-H5 thickness will lead to moderating temperatures on Tuesday. The diffuse boundary may settle along the OK state line with some moisture pooling leading to a moist and unstable airmass. Widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible across southern KS during the afternoon hours. A strong storm or two may be possible but widespread severe storms are not anticipated. The nocturnal LLJ is progged to ramp up Tue night but the better chances for elevated showers and storms may remain north and east of the area. Some low pops were maintained given the uncertainty.

Hot and humid conditions will return on Wednesday, especially across southeast KS as northwest mid/upper flow prevails over the Central Plains. A prefrontal trough is progged to bisect the area ahead of an approaching cold front. Deep vertical mixing with gusty southwest winds will allow temperatures to climb to 100-105 in parts of south central KS, while lower 90s will be common in the Flint Hills and southeast KS where low/mid 70 dewpoints will linger. As the cold front arrives toward 00Z, storms may unzip from northeast to southwest along the frontal zone. Moderate to extreme buoyancy is progged in the warm sector where unseasonably strong mid-lvl flow is progged. Widely scattered storms are possible along the dryline becoming more numerous in the evening along the surging cold front. This scenario favors areas along and east of the Kansas Turnpike for more widespread severe activity. The trailing front is expected to slowly sink southward into the Southern Plains late Wed night into Thursday but we could see some lingering showers/more isolated storms lingering into early Thursday although higher probabilities are expected to remain south of the area as a stable post-frontal regime builds over the area in the wake of the front. Seasonably cool conditions are anticipated on Thu with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s.

Fri-Mon...Moderating temperatures are anticipated Fri-Sat as the mid/upper ridge amplifies and drifts over the Central Plains. A shortwave trough is progged to move into the Rockies on Sat. We could see some isolated storms along the sharpening dryline on Sat afternoon but confidence is low given increasing capping concerns. The nocturnal LLJ could allow anything rolling off the High Plains to grow upscale Sat night possibly impacting the area with a round of storms and some pops were maintained. As the shortwave trough emerges over the Northern Plains late in the weekend or early next week, the mid/upper ridge may break down with continued chances for storms Sun-Mon but confidence early next week remains low at this time. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated late in the weekend into early next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. Light winds observed across the area this afternoon will become mostly southerly this evening before a weak frontal boundary turns them to the north on Tuesday morning.

Low chances (15-20%) for elevated showers and a few rumbles of thunder are forecast to return across portions of central KS early Tuesday morning. Confidence is too low for mentions at RSL/SLN with this issuance, though future cycles may introduce as additional details come into focus.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.