textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Some strong to marginally severe storms are possible along with localized flooding from heavy rain this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures will linger areawide Wed-Sat with record or near record highs possible.

- A more dramatic cool down is expected late this weekend along with increasing probabilities for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

Water vapor/RAP analysis has a 120+ knot H25 jet stretching from the Upper Mississippi Valley area north and east across the Great Lakes and into Quebec while a robust mid/upper ridge was situated over the Tennessee Valley area. This puts the Central Plains region on the southern periphery of the more robust mid/upper SW flow. A moist plume evident on moisture channel imagery was situated across the area with PWATs around 2 inches. A cold front was bisecting Kansas late this morning stretching from SW Kansas north and east into northeast Kansas. This front is progged to accelerate southward this afternoon providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The airmass along and south of the front is expected to have large dewpoint depressions with steep low-level lapse rates and moderate CAPE which will be favorable for strong/severe wind gusts with the strongest storm activity. Some storm activity will linger into the evening hours and perhaps during overnight hours as a weak LLJ noses into south central and southeast KS. Some training of storms along and behind the front could lead to locally heavy rain.

Rising heights are progged across the area on Wed as the frontal boundary mixes northward resulting in another hot day across the region. Any lingering morning shower activity should be confined to parts of central KS early in the period. Afternoon highs are expected to rising into the upper 90s once again. Normal highs for mid Sep are in the low to mid 80s.

Thu-Sat...the mid/upper ridge will continue to impact the area through the period with dry conditions anticipated Thu-Fri. The heat will persist into Saturday with most areas seeing highs in the upper 90s, but a shortwave trough moving over the Northern Rockies on Sat may help break down this ridge and bring increasing chances for showers and storms to the area Sat night into Sunday. Another impactful cold front is also expected to arrive on Sunday ushering in more seasonable air through early next week. Some shower activity may linger into early next week but confidence in the larger-scale details remains rather low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Sep 15 2026

A cold front bisecting central Kansas will race southward this afternoon and evening. This front will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms, most numerous late this afternoon and early this evening. The strongest activity may produce strong or damaging winds of 40 to 55 knots in addition to locally heavy rain. Winds will shift to the northeast in the wake of the front with some gusts over 25 knots at times. MVFR and IFR ceilings are also expected to develop in the wake of the front, mainly impacting central and south central KS tonight into the morning hours on Wed before mixing out.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-098>100.