textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures through Thursday, cool down Friday through much of next week.

- Potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Thursday, with periodic shower/thunderstorm chances Friday night through early next week.

- Elevated grassland fire danger across central and south- central Kansas each day through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

WEDNESDAY EVENING...A sharpening High Plains dryline in response to shortwave energy giving the Central Plains a glancing blow may prove sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development late Wednesday over western Kansas. However, modest low-level moisture and subtle large scale forcing may not be enough to breach the cap for thunderstorm initiation. If a few storms are able to get going, they could possibly get into Russell-Barton counties toward mid-late evening, but since chances are fairly low, held onto a dry forecast for now.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Model consensus continues to support an uptick in thunderstorm chances Thursday afternoon and evening, as a dryline/cold front combination moves east-southeast through the region in response to a potent shortwave traversing Mid-America. The decent forcing amidst a favorable combination of buoyancy and vertical shear is supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms, especially east of a line extending from Salina to Medicine Lodge. However, the magnitude of severity remains in question given the potential for deep layer shear vectors to be oriented mostly parallel to the boundary. This would be especially true if the boundary orients southwest to northeast as most guidance currently suggests. This event is still 100+ hours out so things could change...stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

WEEKEND--EARLY NEXT WEEK...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a persist Central North American longwave trough and associated shortwaves progressing through its base could support periodic shower/thunderstorm chances across the region Friday night through early next week. Tough to pinpoint specifics on timing and areas with the greatest chances given the model spread at this point, so stay tuned for later forecasts.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Persistent southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support above average temperatures through Thursday, with forecast highs in the 70s-80s. A persistent lee trough will also result in stout/gusty south-southwest winds through Thursday as well, with the strongest winds Wed-Thu when gusts could reach 40 mph at times.

As we head into Friday and beyond, a persistent Central North American longwave trough and associated Canadian high pressure oozing in from the north will likely support near to below average temperatures across the region. This somewhat cooler regime could linger through much of next week given the latest NBM temperature probabilities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

Main aviation concern will be breezy southwest winds today, and again Monday, with gusts exceeding 25 kts at times. For tonight, a strengthening southwesterly low-level jet should support low- level wind shear at 1000-1500 ft AGL from late evening through early Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 222 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2026

Stout/gusty south-southwest winds, low humidity, and above average temperatures will support very high grassland fire danger just about each afternoon through Thursday generally along and west of Highway 14 across central and south-central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.