textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms possible across central Kansas early Tuesday morning.

- Better rain chances will arrive Wednesday and last through Thursday night, with strong to marginally severe storms and locally heavy rainfall possible.

- Dry and hot temperatures may return this coming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis currently depict broad troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging across the Desert Southwest as a mid/upper shortwave treks toward the Northern Plains. At the surface, a tightening pressure gradient developing in response to an approaching cold front has promoted gusty south winds across areas mainly west of Interstate 135. With the front currently spanning from northern Minnesota to the Nebraska Panhandle, we continue to expect the boundary to continue shifting southeast and touch off showers and storms across northwest Kansas later this evening and overnight. A few of these may find their way into central Kansas early Tuesday morning, though short-term models highlight better chances across northern Kansas into southern Nebraska where greater instability will reside. Highs in the afternoon will range from the low 90s across central Kansas to the upper 90s along the Kansas-Oklahoma border.

Another round of showers and storms is expected to develop later Tuesday evening into the overnight hours as 700 mb waa develops in response to ripples in midlevel flow tracking across northern Kansas. This will promote a little better coverage across central Kansas (primarily along/north of US-56) late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. With the front continuing its shift southward, isolated to scattered rain chances will overspread most of the forecast area heading into Wednesday afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear arising from strengthening winds aloft may allow for strong to severe activity east of the Flint Hills during this period, though as the prior discussion pointed out, residual clouds from earlier activity may put a damper on instability that would otherwise promote stronger storm development. Behind the front, afternoon highs across central Kansas are only forecast to climb into the middle 80s, while locations ahead of the front (southern Kansas) will see another day of highs in the upper 90s.

Storm chances will continue through Thursday into Thursday night, though location will depend on how far south the effective front is pushed by earlier activity. At this point, the greatest chances reside primarily south of US-56, though the northward extent of likely storm chances may be closer to the Kansas-Oklahoma border if solutions like the NAM/Euro pan out. Strong to marginally severe storms will once again be possible during this period owing to stronger winds aloft. Additionally, with progged PWs around 2", efficient rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns. Thanks to cloud cover and the cooler airmass in place, temperatures Thursday afternoon will range from the middle 80s across central Kansas to the mid 90s across southeast Kansas.

Looking ahead to the end of the week and beyond, long range models highlight a mid/upper ridge building back into the Plains. This should support dry and hot conditions returning to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Breezy southerly winds with gusts to around 30 knots at times will impact central KS this afternoon and evening before diminishing after midnight as a frontal boundary approaches. An isolated shower or storm will be hard to rule out toward morning but most areas are expected to remain dry. Breezy northeast winds may impact the I-70 corridor on Tuesday while light southeast winds will be common in south central and southeast Kansas while VFR prevails over the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.