textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Can't rule out an isolated shower/storm later this afternoon and evening across the Flint Hills. Severe weather is not expected.

- Quiet Monday, then increasing rain chances beginning Tuesday and lasting into at least Thursday.

- Seasonably warm for most locations through Wednesday, then slightly cooler air arrives to close out the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon highlight weak ridging over the Rockies and Plains as a potent mid/upper wave sits just off the CA coast. Meanwhile, a low-level moisture plume spans from the Gulf northward through the Missouri River Valley and beyond. A surface high resides in IL.

Later this afternoon into the evening hours, daytime heating amid a weakly-capped atmosphere may allow for an isolated storm or two over locations along/east of the Flint Hills. Lack of forcing remains the primary concern for coverage. However, considering PWs about 175% of normal for this time of year, decided to hold low chances in place as it wouldn't be a surprise to see some development prior to sundown.

As we move into the overnight hours, easterly winds settling in across the forecast area on east will help advect rich low-level moisture into the region. This moistening along with weak upslope flow may allow for light drizzle and patchy fog into early Monday morning across mainly the Flint Hills east and along/north of US-50. There remains a bit of uncertainty as to whether this will make it into south central KS at this time.

Quiet weather is expected for Monday with ridging remaining in place. By late Monday night/Tuesday morning, the aforementioned potent upper impulse will be located over the Desert Southwest. Increasing low-level moisture transport ahead of this will allow for showers and storms to develop over the area Tuesday morning into the afternoon. As the mid/upper wave approaches and pulls in the remnants of Hurricane Polo, coverage of showers and storms will increase from the Desert Southwest into the Central Plains through mid/late week. Details are still coming in to focus, though at this time a majority of the deterministic/ensemble suite carry the greatest rainfall totals to the northwest and southeast of the forecast area. Still looking like the best chances for widespread heavy rain for us will come Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a cold front tied to upper energy tracking across the Canadian Prairie slams southeast through the Central Plains. In addition to this, models show the upper low cutting off over the Southern Plains following its ejection out of the Rockies. This may keep lingering rain chances over southeast KS heading into next weekend.

Regarding temperatures this coming week, afternoon highs ranging from the middle 70s to the low/mid 80s are forecast through Wednesday. Toward the back half of the week, the aforementioned cold front may bring cooler temperatures (highs closer to 70 and lows in the 50s) to the forecast area to close out the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Moist easterly flow should support ceilings and possibly visibilities as well to deteriorate tonight and persist into Monday morning for most TAF sites. Only went MVFR to IFR for now, but later shifts may need to consider going a bit lower, especially for RSL and GBD.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.