textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain showers will affect southwest portions of the forecast area mainly this morning, before pushing south for this afternoon.

- Gusty south/southwest winds for Tuesday and especially Wednesday which may bring some dangerous burning conditions.

- Warming trend for next week, with above normal temperatures likely by Tuesday and continuing through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Currently have a compact upper low spinning over the TX Panhandle and about to move into western OK. Widespread showers continue across central and western KS with some of this making it into southwest and south central KS, mainly just west of our forecast area.

Upper low will slowly sink southeast today with the higher rainfall chances also pushing southeast. So current thinking is that southwest portions of our forecast area will have the best chance to see some light rainfall, mainly this morning, with Wichita on the northeast edge of the rainfall. Any location that sees rainfall can expect less than a tenth of an inch.

By Mon morning, upper low will be situated near the Arklatex region, with upper ridging moving into the Plains. Meanwhile out west, another upper trough will be about to move onshore over CA. This will allow for dry conditions and seasonal temperatures to start the work week. By Tue evening, shortwave trough will be quickly lifting out of the Central Great Basin and out across the Central Plains on Wed. The main affect this system will have will be to bring an increase in south/southwest winds for Tue and especially Wed. On Tue, it looks like the strongest winds will be mainly west of I-135, with stronger winds expected area wide on Wed afternoon. For both days, the strongest wind gusts are anticipated to be in the 40 to 45 mph range. Pattern will remain very progressive with yet another shortwave trough expected to come onshore over CA by Thu evening and move out across the Southern/Central Rockies on Fri. Strong 850- 700mb theta-e advection ahead of the wave will bring increased rainfall chances starting Fri morning and continuing through Sat when the shortwave energy swings across the area.

As far as temperatures go, warming trend will continue next week with widespread highs in the 60s by Wed with some 70s even possible by Fri. A significant cool-down does not look likely over the next several days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 529 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be showers this morning along with some low clouds.

Compact upper low is tracking into western OK and is bringing rain showers to much of OK with some scattered activity moving into southern KS. So currently expecting scattered showers to affect KICT and KHUT this morning with some also possibly making it to KGBD and KRSL. Not expecting much in the way of vis restrictions as the rain moves through. Low VFR cigs are in place for areas generally along and west of I-135 and are in the 3500-5000ft range. These clouds are expected to stick around through much of the day and gradually shift south. While it's not out of the question KRSL-KGBD may see some MVFR levels, will keep with current trends at this time and leave VFR.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 254 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Very high fire danger will be in place for a small part of central KS on both Tue and especially Wed afternoon.

Strong south/southwest winds are expected for areas mainly west of I- 135 on Tue afternoon and across most of central and south central KS on Wed. The highest wind gusts these two days are forecast to be in the 40-45 mph range. Even with fairy high RH values, with cured grasses, these will be high enough to elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category across mainly Russell and Barton counties.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.