textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms are possible today, mainly along and east of I-135. Additionally, heat indices may exceed 105 across southern & southeast Kansas this afternoon.

- Additional periodic storm chances are forecast tonight through Friday morning. Thursday night into Friday morning appears to be the best chance for storms, with strong to marginally severe storms possible.

- Slightly cooler and quieter this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Early this morning, the much talked about mid/upper ridge remains centered over New Mexico while a subtle shortwave trough slides southeastward around the northwestern periphery of this ridge across the central plains. Meanwhile, the LLJ is nosing into a modest mid- level baroclinic zone draped across northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. As a result, mid-level WAA is overspreading this area, and the resultant ascent is supporting the development of showers and storms early this morning across portions of northern and northeastern Kansas. A few showers may develop across central Kansas, but currently, coverage will likely remain quite isolated this morning.

Throughout the day, the aforementioned weak shortwave trough will continue to linger over Kansas as it lumbers south and east across the region. Additionally, the primary axis of deep and rich moisture will be placed over eastern Kansas with PWATs well over 2 inches across areas along and east of I-135. With modest upper level support, along with deep and rich moisture creating an uncapped environment, isolated thunderstorms are possible generally along and east of Salina-Wichita line this afternoon and evening. Given very little shear (around 15 knots of 0-6 km shear), the expectation is for this activity to be quite disorganized, and severe storms appear unlikely this afternoon and evening. That being said, wet microbursts could produce 40-50 mph wind gusts in very localized areas. Another consequence of this rich moisture returning to the region will be the high likelihood of locations across southern and southeastern Kansas experiencing another afternoon of heat indices exceeding 105.

With the loss of diurnal heating this evening, chances of showers and storms will briefly decrease. However, additional shower and thunderstorm development is anticipated overnight as widespread mid- level WAA overspreads much of the area. Given the elevated nature of this activity, and that instability will be fairly limited (under 1000 J/kg of MUCAPE), severe storms appear unlikely. The main concerns for showers and storms overnight tonight into Thursday morning will be brief heavy rainfall, occasional lightning strikes, and maybe some locally gusty winds. This activity will linger through much of Thursday morning, and may even last well into the afternoon hours across far eastern Kansas. Meanwhile, a brief warm- up will be felt across central and south-central Kansas with increasing chances of another day with afternoon highs exceeding 100 degrees. It's possible that heat indices could exceed 105 again during the afternoon and evening hours, especially across south- central Kansas. Mid-range guidance continues to suggest a stronger shortwave trough will dig into the northern and central plains Thursday evening into Friday morning. As a result, more widespread showers and storms are forecast Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire forecast area. Despite warm mid-level temperatures contributing to widespread convective inhibition, forcing for ascent from the incoming upper trough along with a strengthening LLJ should support the maintenance of thunderstorms during the overnight hours as they sweep across Nebraska and most of Kansas. There is still some uncertainty in the coverage of storms the further south you go, and it's possible portions of far southern Kansas miss out on most, if not all, of the rainfall. That being said, those who do see a storm late Thursday night into Friday morning could see marginally severe wind gusts up to 60 mph as well as some brief heavy rainfall. Some of this activity could linger throughout the day on Friday across far eastern Kansas, but coverage will be fairly isolated. In the wake of the shower and thunderstorm activity, a more robust cold front will sweep across the region on Friday; however, afternoon highs will still manage to climb into the mid to upper 90s. The cooler air finally arrives Friday night with lows expected to drop into the 60s.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Mid to long range deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests the upper level pattern will be momentarily locked in for a couple of days this weekend with troughing across the eastern CONUS, and a strong ridge parked over the Desert Southwest. This will put Kansas awkwardly in the middle of these features with northerly upper flow remaining quite persistent through the weekend. At the surface, a secondary surge of relatively cooler air is forecast to arrive on Saturday, and this should keep temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below average this weekend. Going into early next week, mid to long range guidance continues to show a more ill-defined pattern across the central CONUS. However, it does appear that slight increases in heights aloft should support a gradual warming of temperatures through the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Isolated showers and storms will remain possible this afternoon as a subtle system moves slowly toward the area. Additional storm activity may drift eastward from western Kansas with some new development possible after 03-04Z across parts of central and south central Kansas. Winds will remain out of the ESE around 5 to 15 knots although a few higher gusts will be possible during the afternoon hours at times.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-083- 091>093-098>100.