textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and thunderstorms this evening

- Better shower and storm chances arrive tonight, especially across south-central KS; a few may produce hail up quarter size and wind gusts near 60 mph

- Mostly dry conditions to round out the weekend into next week; much warmer temperatures for next week

- Very high fire danger possible Thursday afternoon for areas west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

As of 115 PM Saturday afternoon, broad west-northwest midlevel flow was present across the central Plains with a deep trough across Ontario/Great Lakes. At the surface, a cold front extends from near Chicago through northwest KS with a dryline extending from northwest KS through west TX. Regional radar analysis continues to reveal widely scattered returns from south-central NE through south-central KS. These radar returns are being generated by modest WAA rooted near 700 mb. Despite the radar returns, a very dry sub-cloud layer has resulted in virga across central/south-central KS thus far. As the afternoon progresses, the aforementioned dryline may become a focal point for isolated thunderstorm development. The area of possible development is expected to remain generally west of a Russell to Pratt line. Any storm that does develop will be very high based, with cloud bases at 10-12 kft. The inverted V characteristics of the boundary layer would support a downburst potential with the strongest of storms. Any dryline convection potential will quickly dissipate with sunset.

Transitioning into late this evening and overnight, a shortwave trough currently across northwest WY will advance into the central high Plains. WAA will increase ahead of its passage across portions western and central KS. This should result in a gradual increase of midlevel moisture near 700 mb. The approach of the shortwave trough is forecast to steepen midlevel (700-500 mb) lapse rates (as steep as 8- 8.5 C/km), especially from west-central KS into south-central KS. The combination of increasing midlevel moisture and lapse rates is forecast to yield elevated instability ranging from 50-100 J/kg from across eastern KS and up to 1500 J/kg across portions of central to south-central KS (mainly along and west of a line from Great Bend to Anthony). Effective shear values of 40-50 kt would support a large hail around quarter size. DCAPE values are forecast to remain around 1000 J/kg and would support damaging winds around 60 mph. As the shortwave trough departs the area late Sunday morning into Sunday afternoon, rain chances will diminish.

Midlevel heights will be on the increase early next week as a southwest US ridge amplifies. This will result in a warming trend with highs in the 80s and 90s by Tuesday. A midlevel shortwave trough will translate across the northern Plains Tuesday, shunting a weak cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. A stray shower or storm cannot be entirely ruled out across eastern KS but widespread precipitation is not expected. Temperatures will remain in the 80s for Wednesday but quickly return to the 90s for Thursday through Saturday. Mid to long range guidance continues to suggest a pattern change towards the end of next week with a western CONUS trough approaching the central/northern Plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun May 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Weak, high-based showers currently observed across portions of central KS will gradually make their way south throughout the morning hours, though impacts are expected to be limited. Otherwise, looking for northeast winds throughout the daytime hours before a wind shift back to the south around sunset beginning in central KS and spreading southward.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 135 PM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Fire weather concerns are forecast to return Thursday afternoon for areas generally west of Interstate 135. Gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-25% range. Areas west of Interstate 135 have remained quite dry for the last several months. In fact, Kansas State Mesonet data reveals many sites west of Interstate 135/Highway 81 have gone hundreds of days without 1" or more rainfall reported in a single day. The longest streak across NWS Wichita's forecast area is 296 consecutive days at Harper. Hoisington and McPherson aren't far behind at 246 and 234 days respectively.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.