textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Gusty southerly winds will result in very high grassland fire danger Monday through Wednesday.

- Rain chances will return mid to late in the work week with chances continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper trough sliding across the Ohio Valley with weak ridging over the western CONUS. At the surface, high pressure sits over Kansas and stretches down into the southern Plains. An additional surface high has moved into Saskatchewan with surface ridging extending into the Northern Plains. A low is over the Upper Mississippi Valley with a cold front stretched across parts of the northern Plains.

As we move into Monday, the aforementioned cold front will push south and is progged to stall in northern Kansas as it becomes a stationary front around the I-70 corridor. Lee troughing will increase resulting in breezy southerly winds south of the front in central and south-central KS. Low-level southerly/southwesterly winds will aid in temperatures rising into the lower 70s across our area with the warmest temperatures expected in western KS. Precipitation associated with this front should stay north/northeast of the area in NE/MO/IA where the right entrance region of the upper jet is expected to be.

The stationary front will lift north as a warm front on Tuesday as the next upper shortwave moves into the northwestern CONUS. This will result in a low developing over southern Alberta/northern Montana with a strengthening pressure gradient over the northern and central Plains. Given the increased pressure gradient, gusty southerly winds are expected again on Tuesday with the strongest winds in central and south-central KS. High temperatures will be closer to normal for this time of year on Tuesday afternoon with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The upper shortwave will move into the Northern Plains on Wednesday with a cold front extending down into the Central Plains from its associated surface low. Breezy southerly/southwesterly winds are anticipated south of the front in our area and will advect some moisture back into the area. Some shower and storm chances are possible Wednesday night with the better chances in northern/central KS. A few strong storms cannot be ruled out given the steep mid- level lapse rates and effective shear around 30 kts, though chances for severe storms are low given the limited instability (under 500 J/kg). This front may stall across KS on Thursday which would aid in additional rain chances in eastern KS.

A deeper upper trough will develop off the coast of California as we move towards this weekend. This will shift flow aloft to southwesterly over the Central Plains with southerly winds at the surface advecting moisture into the area. Dewpoints are progged to increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s with additional shower and storm chances possible into the weekend. With PWAT values progged to be around 1.25" (close to the maximum for this time of year), any shower or storm that develops may lead to meaningful rainfall. Forecast details will continue to be monitored and refined, stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the end of the period at all sites.

South winds are forecast to increase across central and south central KS through the mid to late morning hours with sustained speeds around 15 kts and gusts to 25 kts. A surface boundary will gradually sag southward by early evening and result in winds backing to the east at RSL and SLN. This may occur earlier in the period with some guidance suggesting a wind shift in the late afternoon. Decided to place this change after 00Z for this cycle, so stay tuned to future forecasts as additional trends and observations become available.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 234 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Breezy southerly winds, mild temperatures, and lower relative humidity will result in Very High grassland fire danger for portions of central and south-central KS on Monday and Tuesday.

For Wednesday, southwesterly winds and relative humidity between 30- 40% will lead to Very High grassland fire danger mainly for areas along and west of the Flint Hills.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.