textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight across central KS

- Widespread rainfall possible Friday into Saturday and again early next week

- Near to above normal temperatures expected through early next week; cooler temperatures beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow remains across the central Plains. Further north, a shortwave trough was was advancing through southern Ontario with an attendant surface trough stalled from the OK Panhandle through central KS and northeast from there. The forecast area has remained storm free so far with the strongest forcing for ascent remaining across far northeast KS and northern MO. Midlevel heights will gradually increase through the daytime hours today as shortwave ridging amplifies ahead of a western CONUS trough. Despite the increasing midlevel heights, a weak perturbation currently over northern NM is progged to lift across the post-frontal region of west-central into central KS this afternoon and evening. This could support a few showers or thunderstorms. Steepening lapse rates may yield up to 1000 J/kg of elevated instability across central KS. Effective shear less than 30 kt should keep any convective disorganized. Otherwise, a notable temperature gradient is expected to reside on the stalled surface front this afternoon with highs across central KS in the upper 60s or lower 70s and areas of south-central and southeast KS near 80.

The next shortwave trough is posed to lift from the Baja region late tonight into Friday. This should result in widespread rain showers Friday and even Saturday. SREF/EPS mean rainfall amounts Friday into Saturday are generally 0.50" or less with the highest amounts along and west of I-135.

Transitioning into the late Sunday into next timeframe, a strong midlevel trough is progged to eject into the Plains Monday into Monday night. Confidence continues to increase for widespread rainfall beginning late Sunday night or Monday morning and continuing, at least intermittently, through Tuesday. Additionally, the pattern, especially Monday afternoon and evening, may support a severe storm potential and needs to be monitored over the coming days. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

CIGS will gradually lower this morning across central KS with MVFR conditions expected by mid to late morning. It's likely the low clouds will remain at GBD and RSL through the end of the period. SLN and HUT may have a brief period of MVFR CIGS this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected. A few showers and thunderstorms are possible across central KS this afternoon and evening but confidence in coverage remains much too low for any inclusion at this time. Patchy fog is possible across central KS near the end of the period and later outlooks will have to reevaluate that potential.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.