textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms are possible this afternoon through late tonight with the strongest storms capable of producing golfball size hail and damaging wind gusts.

- Well above normal temperatures will continue into early next week with heat indices near 100. Slightly cooler temperatures are forecast to return late week.

- Periodic shower and storm chances will be possible late Monday night through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains with an additional shortwave over the Lower Mississippi Valley. Upper troughing remains over Canada with zonal flow aloft over the Northern Plains. A deeper upper trough is developing off the coast of the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front is draped across portions of central KS then continues to curve down into the Texas Panhandle. An outflow boundary has moved through northern Oklahoma into central Oklahoma. There are ongoing storms in southern Nebraska and portions of northeast Kansas due to 700mb WAA. Activity continues to develop in far southeast Kansas and push east/southeast.

For later this afternoon, storms are expected to develop in the eastern portion of the Oklahoma Panhandle where the outflow boundary meets the cold front. These storms are anticipated to move east/northeast into southern Kansas as we move into this evening affecting portions of south-central and southeast Kansas late this evening into tonight. Severe storms are likely with this activity as instability in this area is progged to be greater than 2500 J/kg with 35-40 kts of effective shear. This combined with steep mid- level lapse rates could be capable of producing golfball size hail with the strongest storms. Damaging wind gusts around 60 mph are also possible given DCAPE values greater than 1300 J/kg. Additional storm development is expected across the area tonight as the LLJ ramps up coupled with mid-level WAA. There is still uncertainty with exact location for storms but recent guidance suggests scattered chances will be possible across much of eastern Kansas during the overnight hours into early Sunday morning. Showers and storms are expected to continue to move east Sunday morning with chances starting to diminish late Sunday morning.

For Sunday afternoon, mostly dry conditions are forecast with cloud cover dissipating. Recent model guidance suggests the frontal boundary lifting north as a warm front, returning southerly flow to our area. Above normal 850mb temperatures are progged especially across southern Kansas, leading to another day of above normal temperatures. Highs are forecast to be in the upper 80s to mid 90s with portions of south-central Kansas in the upper 90s. Heat indices will be near 100 especially in southern Kansas Sunday afternoon to early evening. Hot conditions will continue into Monday across the whole area as well above normal 850mb temperatures continue. High temperatures will be in the upper 90s to potentially the low 100s with heat indices following suit. Guidance remains consistent with an upper trough propagating towards the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon. This will increase the pressure gradient in the northern and central Plains, resulting in breezy southerly winds in Kansas Monday afternoon.

For late Monday night to early Tuesday morning, the aforementioned upper trough will continue to track east, pushing a cold front down through Nebraska into northern Kansas. Storms are likely to develop along it increasing rain chances late Monday night. The front looks to stall out across central KS Tuesday afternoon resulting in a spread of temperatures. Highs are currently forecast to range from 70s in far northern KS to the upper 90s in southern Kansas. Additional rainfall chances will be possible through much of the week as embedded weak perturbations continue to slide across the region. Highs for Wednesday have trended warmer than previously thought with highs ranging from the 80s in central KS to the mid 90s in southern KS. Slightly cooler temperatures are progged to arrive for Thursday and Friday with highs mainly in the 80s across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances mainly this evening and overnight.

Storms that tracked across eastern KS early this morning pushed outflow through that is now situated down across OK. The storms over southeast KS are associated with the 850mb front. Meanwhile, the actual cold front currently stretches from Great Bend to north of Emporia. Storms are expected to develop after 4 pm across northwest OK/SW KS where convergence is maximized along the front. Additional storms are then expected to develop after 00z across south central KS as low level jet ramps-up increasing moisture transport. KICT and KHUT look to have the best chance to see this activity, generally after 02z with KCNU eventually getting in on it. Large hail will be possible with any of the stronger cells this evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.