textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures will continue through Saturday with warmer temperatures returning Sunday through Tuesday.

- Breezy southerly winds expected on Saturday especially in central KS.

- Shower and storm chances increasing for Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday night with additional chances possible on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper ridge building into the western CONUS with an upper trough over the Great Lakes area. At the surface, expansive high pressure has moved into the Northern and Central Plains with surface ridging extending through the Southern Plains. In our area, breezy northerly winds continue with gusts up to 30 mph and high temperatures in the 50s. Winds will start to diminish later this afternoon into the evening. As we move into tonight and Saturday morning, low temperatures will drop into the low 30s on early Saturday morning. The surface high will shift east with a low developing over the High Plains. This will increase the pressure gradient in the Central Plains combined with mixing with an increased LLJ will lead to breezy southerly winds on Saturday. The strongest winds will be in central KS where speeds between 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 40 mph are expected. In south-central and southeast KS, speeds between 15 to 25 mph with gusts between 25-30 mph are forecast. Given the windy conditions in central KS, a Wind Advisory is in effect for Saturday afternoon into the evening. Cooler temperatures will continue into Saturday with highs rising into the lower 60s.

As we move into Sunday, the upper ridge will build back into the area, allowing thickness to increase and warmer temperatures to return. Breezy southerly winds will continue into Sunday afternoon especially in southeast KS where the increased LLJ is progged to be. Southerly winds will be around 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. Low- level southwesterly/westerly winds will help warm high temperatures back into the 80s across much of the area with the upper 70s in southeast KS. This warming trend will persist through Tuesday with mid to upper 80s expected on Monday.

An upper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Tuesday, which will push a strong cold front through our area during the day on Tuesday. This will result in a range of high temperatures from the lower 60s in central KS to the lower 80s in southeast KS. As this front moves through southeast KS on Tuesday afternoon, scattered showers and storms are likely. Southwesterly winds will help bring dewpoints into the 50s with steep low- and mid- level lapse rates. Model guidance is generally showing under 1000 J/kg MUCAPE with around 30 kts of effective shear which could support a few marginally severe storms. PWATs are progged to be over 1.25" which is around the maximum for this time of year, leading to the potential for some meaningful rainfall in southeast KS. Given how far out this is, forecast details will continue to be monitored and refined, stay tuned.

Cooler temperatures and breezy northwesterly winds are expected on Wednesday following the cold front. Highs are forecast to be in the 50s which would be 10-15 degrees below normal for this time of year. Additional rain chances are possible Wednesday/Wednesday night as another upper shortwave is progged to move into the Central Rockies. There is some spread with models on timing, location and precip amounts making uncertainty high on shower and storm chances for Wednesday. Long range guidance suggests a deeper upper trough moving into the Central Rockies Friday night and into the weekend which would bring additional rain chances to the area. The GFS has a faster progression with the trough compared to the ECMWF leading to differences in timing and location of showers and storms. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1155 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs along with gusty northeast winds through the afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish around sunset and switch to the east/southeast during the morning hours on Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 257 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Very High to Extreme grassland fire danger is expected each day through Wednesday due to above-normal temperatures, breezy winds, and low relative humidity. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for Saturday in central and portions of south-central KS. Southerly winds will be between 25-35 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in central KS which could make any fire that develops difficult to control.

Other days that have potential for Extreme/Red Flag conditions are Monday and Tuesday when well-above normal temperatures, low humidity, and breezy winds are expected. A cold front will push through the area on Tuesday afternoon bringing rain chances and cooler temperatures which could limit fire danger on Wednesday and Thursday. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.