textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will move back-in for Thursday with colder air starting to move-in on Friday, with a more substantial cold surge arriving by late Saturday.

- After a cold Sunday, we quickly get back into a warming trend to start the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Water vapor satellite imagery currently shows a well pronounced shortwave impulse tracking across eastern Nebraska/Iowa. At the same time, a deep upper low is rotating across eastern Ontario. At the surface, cold front stretches from central MO, through far southeast KS and into the TX Panhandle.

Upper wave will continue tracking quickly east today and will be moving into the Tennessee Valley by late this afternoon. Cold front will also continue tracking south today. However, the airmass behind the front will only knock highs down into the 50s today, which will still be above seasonal highs. Strong northwest flow aloft will be in place for tonight into Thu. There is good model agreement that a weak mid/upper perturbation will track out of southern SK/Manitoba and into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley by early Fri morning. Ahead of this wave, we are looking for great downslope conditions on Thu along with unseasonably warm 850mb temps. This setup will provide widespread maxes in the 60s for Thu with upper 60s likely for locations west of I-135.

Cold front will start to progress south on Fri with colder air slowly spilling south into the forecast area throughout the day. The more significant cold air on Fri will be over northeast KS/northern MO/eastern Nebraska. A more robust shortwave is then expected to track out of south central Canada and into the Western Great Lakes region by Sat afternoon. This will allow for a more substantial cold surge for late Sat afternoon through the evening hours. Behind the front, highs on Sunday are not forecast to make it out of the 30s. The good news is that this airmass will push east very quickly as some weak upper ridging moves across the Plains. So by Monday, we are looking for highs to be back near seasonal normals with even warmer temps expected for Tuesday. Medium range models have been fairly consistent in showing a weak upper impulse tracking across the Southern Plains on Tuesday. However, confidence is not high enough to insert precip chances at this time. However, even if we do end up running with some pops with later forecasts, it doesn't look like it would be cold enough for a winter event.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Dec 10 2025

Main aviation concern will be gusty northwest winds today.

Cold front moved through the area overnight with strong northwest winds behind the front. Currently have gusts around 30-35 mph at most sites, with the strongest expected to be over south central and eastern KS. We should see wind speeds decrease this afternoon and especially as sunset approaches. In addition, winds will turn to the south and southwest by late tonight. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.