textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms this morning moving-in from western KS with heavy rain and hail the main threats.

- Storms expected to redevelop late this afternoon and evening along outflow boundary. Most likely location for development will be over southern KS/northern OK. Severe storms will be likely with any storm that develops along the front.

- Another round of storms for Friday night, with large hail the main threat.

-Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last through most of next week. This will bring much hotter temperatures and gusty south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 243 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Currently have a shortwave trough over the Upper Mississippi Valley and about to move into the Western Great Lakes region. Meanwhile, water vapor imagery shows a couple weak upper perturbations moving across the Central Rockies. At the surface, cold front stretches just south of the KS/NE border. Just like the last few nights, afternoon convection developed over the High Plains of western Nebraska/ne CO and have been tracking southeast this evening. Strong 850-700mb theta-e advection has resulted in additional development on the eastward flank of this complex over north central KS. Current thinking is that storms will continue tracking southeast out of northwest KS. Wouldn't be shocked if we see additional development south of this area as 850mb moisture transport continues to increase. The bulk of the storms are expected to be moving into our western flank in the 10-12z time fame and track through much of the CWA through the early afternoon hours. While confidence is high that rainfall rates will be high enough to cause flooding, confidence is lower with regards to wind and hail threat.

Storms will be moving through eastern KS this afternoon and the main question will be where the outflow boundary sets up for storms late this afternoon and evening. Model trends have been to push this boundary further south with each run, but will still be dependent on where convection tracks this morning/afternoon. Any storm that develops along the front will likely be severe, given extreme CAPE values in the 3000-4000J/kg range along with 0-6km deep layer shear in the 40-50kt range. With surface boundary near the area, also can't rule out a couple tornadoes. Storms that develop tonight will push east through the night, with the bulk of the activity out of our forecast area by 12z Fri.

Not expecting too much during the day on Fri, as we get into some very weak upper ridging in the wake of a departing impulse. We are looking for storms to develop Fri night as an impressive low level jet develops and results in impressive moisture transport and theta- e advection. Large hail will be likely with any of these storms as they quickly lift off to the northeast.

By Sat morning, deep upper low will dig across the Pacific Northwest and will setup strong lee troughing across the High Plains. This will bring strong return flow for the weekend providing much hotter temperatures and strong south winds. This same setup will continue through most of next week, with strong upper ridging over the Ohio Valley and upper troughing over the northwest CONUS. So confidence is high in above normal temperatures through all of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 556 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions continue to be expected later today as low clouds build in at all sites. Showers and storms progressing through western and southern KS will gradually progress eastward and are forecast to impact sites later this morning. Brief vsby reductions and heavy rainfall are the primary impacts expected.

Following this morning's activity, additional storm chances are expected to return to the area later this afternoon and evening. However, with a fair bit of uncertainty regarding exactly where storms will set up, decided to not mention impacts at any sites with this issuance. At this time, however, best chances appear to reside in south central and southeast KS. Later cycles will have a better handle on timing and location of greatest impacts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.