textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temps for today and Monday with much cooler conditions for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Rain chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday with our highest chances arriving for Tuesday night into Wednesday. Not looking for any significant severe storms with this activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Currently have northwest flow aloft over the Northern and Central Plains with an upper trough stretching from the eastern Great Lakes region down into the Southern Appalachians. At the surface, a weak cold front extends from central MN down into northwest Nebraska.

Some weak upper energy is expected to slide south out of the Northern Rockies today which will allow surface low pressure to strengthen over southeast CO. At the same time, the weak cold front over the Northern Plains will also sink south, and by late this afternoon will stretch generally along I-70. Still not looking for any convection to develop along the front this afternoon due mainly to capping issues, with the better storm chances across northern and central MO. Main story for today will be much warmer temps, with much of the area seeing highs in the mid and upper 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are in the low 70s.

For Monday, an upper low will dig south across the south central Canadian Provinces and eventually into the Northern Plains and Western Great Lakes region. This will allow a stronger cold front to surge south across the Northern/Central Plains, with this feature forecast to move through our forecast area Mon night into early Tue morning. Current thinking is that any daytime convection on Mon will be tied to the front, which will be well north of the forecast area. So our best storm chances will likely be Mon evening, especially across eastern KS, where mid level warm advection will be maximized along with better low level jet convergence. Much of the convection will likely be north of the front. The main threat with stronger storms will be some small hail.

Models remain consistent in tracking a southern stream upper low across the Desert Southwest on Tue with most of the energy phasing with the northern stream trough as it digs across the Central Rockies. This will bring another increase in rainfall chances for Tue night into Wed in an area of strong mid level frontogenesis. As the trough continues to swing east, the better precip chances will also push east of the forecast area by Wed night. Confidence is high that below normal temps will be in place for both Tue and especially Wed. Highs on Wed are expected to be around 15 degrees below normal as readings don't make it out of the 50s. We look to quickly get back into northwest flow aloft for Thu which will get us back to seasonal temps and dry conditions. Warming trend will continue as the weekend approaches with 80s likely for both Fri and Sat.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

A weak cold front is expected to slide into northern KS today but storms are not anticipated to develop along it. The only affect it will have will be to flip winds around to the northeast around 00z at KRSL-KSLN-KGBD. Gusty southwest winds will be in place for KICT-KHUT-KCNU by early this afternoon with gusts around 30 mph likely. Confidence remain high that mostly clear skies will remain in place through this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.