textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder air will start moving-in today with a more substantial push of cold air arriving for Friday. Dangerous wind chills likely by Saturday morning.

- Flurries and light snow chances increasing for tonight and especially Friday with some very minor accumulation possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a fast moving compact upper impulse moving across the OK Panhandle/southwest KS. Meanwhile, a deep upper low is centered over southern Ontario. At the surface, low pressure is also situated over the OK Panhandle with high pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley. Lastly, a stationary front extends from Northern AR into Western KS.

After monitoring latest trends, confidence is decreasing we will see much in the way of fog or drizzle this morning. This is mainly due to lack of decent low level moisture to our south or east that could advect-in this morning. In addition, high clouds have not allowed temps to cool off as fast as possible. Winds will flip around to the northeast as the low passes off to the south today, which will not allow for much of a warm-up today. By 12z Fri, small upper impulse currently affecting the area, will be moving into the Tennessee Valley with a much stronger vort lobe expected to start tracking quickly south across the Upper Mississippi Valley. By 00z Sat, this feature will be tracking across the Ozark Region, which will allow a more significant push of cold air to move-in by Fri afternoon.

There will be a chance for some flurries later tonight over central KS as the low level baroclinic zone approaches the area. However, confidence is increasing that we will see a more widespread area of flurries and light snow during the day Friday. With forecast soundings showing some decent lapse rates below the 1km, feel that we may see some snow showers mixed-in that may briefly reduce visibility. While confidence is high much of central and south central will see some snow, confidence is also high that amounts will range from a dusting to a few tenths of an inch. Area of flurries and light snow will be pushing into western KS for Fri night as very cold air continues to spill into the area. Currently looking for below zero temps early Sat morning with wind chills in the -10 to -15 range.

Surface high will quickly shift southeast for Sat night into Sun as we get back into northwest flow aloft. This will also allow for south/southwest winds to get the area back into some warm advection, with highs in the 40s for all areas by Monday. There is some model agreement in some shortwave energy tracking out of the Northern Plains/Northern Rockies for Mon night through Tue night and may provide an increase in precip chances. However, there are enough timing and location differences to lower confidence at this time. Even though temps next week will be warmer than what we will see Fri and Sat, they will still be very close to seasonal normals for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Aviation concerns will remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Low clouds are currently developing over western KS with the thinking they are not expected to make it into our forecast area, with just some mid clouds affecting the area today. A strong cold front will start to work into the area late tonight and may bring some flurries to central KS. However, confidence is high that the better light snow and flurry chances will arrive after 12z Friday. So will leave mention out for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.