textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms this morning may produce brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Strong or severe storms are not expected.

- Another hot day today, especially across southern and southeast Kansas with heat indices likely to exceed 105 this afternoon and early evening.

- Periodic storm chances are forecast tonight through Friday night. A few strong storms producing gusty winds cannot be ruled out, but widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Upper air analysis shows that the much talked about mid/upper ridge has shifted southwest slightly and is now primarily centered over New Mexico early this morning. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough is rounding the northern periphery of this ridge, while mid-level WAA is overspreading portions of northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. As a result, there is enough ascent to overcome the very warm mid-level temperatures, and scattered showers and storms are ongoing across central and northern Kansas early this morning. Subtle mid-level WAA should continue through the morning hours along the mid-level baroclinic zone, and this should support continued shower and thunderstorm activity across central, northern, and eastern Kansas through the morning hours. Like mentioned previously, mid-level temperatures remain very warm (greater than 28 C at 850 mb), which will keep a lid on the intensity of this activity. Thus, severe weather is not expected; however, brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and occasional lightning strikes are possible.

Assuming the coverage of showers and storms today remains along and north of US-50, much of southern and southeast Kansas will continue to feel the presence of the mid/upper ridge. Afternoon temperatures around 100 and dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s will generally support heat indices around 105 south of US-50 this afternoon into the early evening.

The forecast from late tonight through Friday will generally be a rinse and repeat each day. Starting with tonight, another very weak and subtle shortwave trough will round the north/northeastern periphery of the upper ridge while mid-level WAA overspreads much of northern and eastern Kansas at the nose of the nocturnal LLJ. This will support another round of widely scattered showers and storms across portions of central, northern, and eastern Kansas late tonight through much of Wednesday morning. Similar to this morning, mid-level temperatures will remain very warm which should keep the intensity of this activity in check. Generally speaking, the main concerns late tonight through Wednesday morning will be limited to brief heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and a few lightning strikes. Thanks to some lingering cloud cover and the aforementioned ridge continuing to gradually retrograde into the southwestern CONUS, Wednesday afternoon won't be quite as hot with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices generally remaining below 105. Then, a similar setup to the previous couple of days is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning with scattered showers and storms possible across northern, central, and eastern Kansas. Thursday afternoon will be slightly warmer with some locations across south-central Kansas reaching 100 during the afternoon hours. Going into Thursday night, mid-range guidance suggests a stronger shortwave trough will round the northern side of the ridge and sweep across the Rockies and northern/central plains Thursday into Friday morning. As a result, more widespread showers and storms are forecast Thursday night into Friday morning across the entire forecast area. This activity is still likely to struggle with very warm mid-level temperatures remaining in place across the region. Therefore, severe weather is not expected at this time; however, there's still time for things to change, so trends will need to be monitored over the coming days. Some of this activity could linger throughout the day on Friday across far eastern Kansas, but in general, storm chances will be coming to an end by Friday night.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Mid to long range deterministic and ensemble model guidance suggests the upper level pattern will be momentarily locked in for a few days this weekend into early next week with troughing across the eastern CONUS, and a strong ridge parked over the Desert Southwest. This will put Kansas awkwardly in the middle of the features with northerly upper flow remaining quite persistent for a few days. At the surface, a series of weak cold fronts appears increasingly likely which should support cooler temperatures this weekend, perhaps 5 to 10 degrees below average for this time of year. Going into early next week, the pattern becomes increasingly ill-defined, but it appears that slight increases in heights aloft should support a gradual warming of temperatures through the beginning of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 608 AM CDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Despite lingering showers this morning, VFR conditions should prevail over the next 24 hours.

As of 12Z, scattered showers are continuing to linger across much of the forecast area. However, rainfall remains fairly light, and minimal vis and cig reductions are expected as this activity slowly dissipates and moves eastward. This activity should generally come to an end around 18Z this afternoon.

Winds this morning are fairly light and variable, but they should become more uniform out of the east while wind speeds increase to around 10 knots across the area this afternoon.

Late tonight into Wednesday morning, another round of showers and storms is possible across portions of central and eastern Kansas; however, impacts are currently forecast to be relatively minimal.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>072-082- 083-091>096-098>100.