textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers/thunderstorms this evening through early Sunday, mainly over eastern KS.

- Fog possible later tonight through early Sunday central to north-central KS.

- Additional isolated storm chances possible late Sunday.

- Potential for a prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms Tuesday through week's end. Increasing flooding concerns will be the main risk during this period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

FOG:

A decoupling boundary layer in vicinity of a weak surface trough amidst a moist airmass and moist soils should support patchy to areas of fog later tonight into Sunday morning across central and north-central Kansas, mainly west of a line extending from Lincoln to Lyons. Evening-night shifts will need to monitor for possible dense fog.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON...Expecting areas of rain and embedded rumbles of thunder to continue exiting eastern KS to the east this afternoon, just ahead of shortwave energy traversing the region. Brief heavy rain will be the primary hazard.

LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...By late this afternoon and early evening, can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms generally along/west of Interstate 135, just ahead of a subtle surface trough. Convergence and upper forcing look rather weak (could even prove subsident in wake of current wave), and model soundings suggest the potential for some capping issues, so chances are low. However, if an isolated storm can get going, strong instability coupled with marginal deep layer shear would support a localized hail/wind threat.

THIS EVENING--EARLY SUNDAY...Modest 850-600mb warm advection and moisture transport ahead of a weak mid-level trough approaching from the northwest should support a modest uptick in shower/thunderstorm coverage (although probably not widespread), generally east- southeast of the KS Turnpike. Some directional component to the deep layer shear coupled with modest elevated instability may support a locally strong storm along with brief heavy rain.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...May see a few isolated thunderstorms once again across portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS, in vicinity of a weak surface trough amidst a moist and weakly capped airmass. Once again, decent instability and marginal shear may support a locally strong to severe thunderstorm, but activity should remain fairly isolated. There is some CAM support for this isolated activity.

TUESDAY--WEEK'S END...Attention then turns to the potential for a prolonged period of off-and-on showers/thunderstorms, as a strong and slow-moving upper trough approaches from the west. Precipitable waters are forecast to be a staggering 4-5+ standard deviations above average, owing to remnants of Eastern Pacific tropical systems getting absorbed into this approaching system. Additionally, there will be some instability present as well. Consequently, a multi-day off-and-on heavy rainfall event looks increasingly likely across the region, with deterministic and ensemble consensus supporting multi- day rainfall amounts of 1-3+ inches (locally higher). This may support increasing flooding concerns, including river/stream flooding. Furthermore, increasing shear and forcing may also support a few rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty surrounding finer synoptic details, which will impact the magnitude, location, and timing of heaviest rainfall. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Mostly seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures are forecast through about Tuesday, switching to seasonably cool to below average temperatures thereafter due to the potential for widespread clouds and precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Scattered showers and storms are lingering across southeast Kansas likely impacting the KCNU terminal through 09-10Z where some transient MVFR cigs will remain possible. Some activity may linger into the morning hours across far southeast Kansas. Meanwhile, light easterly winds are anticipated during the predawn hours leading to some fog development in parts of central Kansas or along the Hwy 14 corridor leading to some IFR ceilings and visibilities in the 11Z-14Z timeframe. Higher probabilities for dense fog are expected to remain further north with some mixing lingering through a good portion of the night. We could see some afternoon showers and storms return to parts of southeast KS as we remain within a moist and weakly capped airmass. Light easterly winds are expected to prevail across the area on Sunday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.