textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably cool and dry for today and tonight.

- A few storms possible Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning.

- Warm-up back to normal expected for the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

A surface high currently dominates the central part of the country. Light winds, partly cloud skies, and mild temperatures will continue in the wake of the potent frontal boundary from a couple days ago. While our weather is still primarily influenced by the deep upper trough across the Great Lakes Region, the upper ridge to our west is beginning to build and shift east. For this afternoon, this means the gradual warming trend will get underway with highs across the area reaching into the upper 70s. With dewpoints remaining in the 50s, overnight lows tonight will still manage to dip down into the middle to upper 50s.

For Monday and Monday night, we have a relatively decent shot at seeing some additional showers and thunderstorms develop and move east across the state as a upper level shortwave traverses the Central Plains. We're currently not anticipating severe weather with this activity as the better instability and shear will be located across western and central Kansas while the better forcing from the shortwave will be situated over eastern Kansas. Despite this, the 1500-200 J/kg of CAPE and shear upwards of 40 kts will still be able to sustain a few run of the mill thunderstorms. It looks like this activity will develop across central Kansas during the afternoon hours and move eastward through the evening and into the overnight. There's still a little bit of time for all the pieces of the puzzle to come together before we pinpoint exact timing and location of highest impacts, but will maintain 30-40 POPs for much of the area with highest chances across northern portions of the forecast area.

As we move through the week, the ridge to our west will continue to build back over the region. This will support the gradual warming trend with highs in the lower 80s for Tuesday and temperatures nearing normal through the end of the week and into the weekend with highs in the middle to upper 80s. Overnight lows will stabilize in the 60s through the end of the period. With the upper ridge parking over the Central and Southern Plains by Wednesday, it will effectively shut down precip chances for the rest of the forecast time frame. This will lead to pleasantly warm and dry weather for the end of the week and weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Sun Sep 7 2025

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light winds will continue through the overnight hours. Southerly winds will pick up after 17z with gusts up to 20 kts mainly at RSL and GBD.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.