textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms return Friday afternoon across southeast KS, then again areawide Saturday evening into Sunday morning. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but widespread severe weather is not expected.

- Warming temperatures through Saturday before a brief cooldown on Sunday.

- Widespread high temperatures in the 80s and even low 90s expected to begin Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper jet max spanning from the Southern Plains to New England with the associated trough situated over the Great Lakes. Strong northwest flow aloft resides over the northwest CONUS into the Northern Rockies. This secondary mid/upper max will gradually shift to the southeast later tonight into Friday morning and allow for scattered rain chances primarily to our north. Per prior forecast cycles, this upper forcing is expected to drive a weak cold front through the area on Friday. Latest short-term models highlight southeast KS with the best chances for thunderstorms along this boundary Friday afternoon into the early evening amid modest instability (1000-1500 J/kg) and solid deep-layer shear (40-50 kts). This may allow for a severe hail threat with the strongest storms that develop especially during the afternoon. Despite slightly cooler air trailing the front, high temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are expected throughout the forecast area to finish out the work week, with widespread highs in the 80s on Saturday.

Another cold front is progged to move across the region Saturday evening into early Sunday morning. Models continue to depict limited instability within the environment with perhaps 500-1000 J/kg at most owing to relatively warm elevated temperatures. However, should be enough shear within the column for a marginal hail threat in the strongest updrafts. Rain chances are forecast to exit the area by late Sunday morning, and high temperatures will largely reside in the 70s to close out the weekend in the post-frontal airmass.

Northwest flow aloft will resume to begin the work week, and with southerly winds expected to settle in, widespread highs in the 80s and even low 90s are forecast by Tuesday. Long-range models depict a mid/upper wave tracking southeast over the Upper Mississippi River Valley and driving a cold front through the region by Tuesday evening, which may provide additional chances for rainfall in the region. Details this far out remain a bit unclear, so currently expecting most of the area to stay warm and dry over the next seven days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs with high clouds streaming overhead. Winds will switch around to a light southerly direction around sunset. A cold front will push across the area during the day on Friday which will cause the winds to flip around to the northwest in the wake of the frontal passage.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.