textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme grassland fire danger for areas west of a line from Kingman to Hutchinson to Salina this afternoon and early evening.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected again for Wed-Thu for much of the area.

- More seasonable temperatures and with low probabilities for light precipitation late Fri-early Sat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Currently, the ridge axis is positioned just to our east with troughing extending across much of the Rockies. This places much of the Sunflower State under strong mid/upper level southwesterly flow. At the surface, a deepening low over the Northern Rockies will shift eastward into the Northern Plains later today. A tightening pressure gradient is leading to strong southerly/southwesterly winds across the area with sustained winds between 25-35 mph and gusts up to 40- 45 mph. The strongest winds are centered over central and western Kansas. Afternoon highs will once again reach into the lower to middle 70s. The surface low to the north will drag an associated frontal boundary across the area generally after 00Z. This boundary will not impact temperatures significantly, but will usher in much drier air. Strong winds, falling dewpoints, and warm temperatures have lead to a Red Flag Warning being issued for portions of central and south-central Kansas from noon till 9pm this evening.

For Wednesday through the end of the week, an active pattern is expected with multiple shortwaves ejecting across the region that are associated with the larger trough. Shortwave ridging will continue to support temperatures in the 70s and mostly clear conditions on Wednesday, but then troughing to the west will finally begin to shift eastward with a developing surface low over the Rockies by Thursday morning. As this low passes jut to our north, the frontal boundary will turn winds out of the northwest by mid Thursday morning with gusty conditions expected through the day. Temperatures will also begin to fall on Thursday, with highs ranging from around 50 in central Kansas to near 70 in far southeast Kansas. Model trends with this system is to take the surface low just to our north, as such, a few snow flurries or sprinkles are possible Thursday night across central Kansas. Another shortwave on Friday night/Saturday could lead to a light rain/snow mix moving eastward across the area. Ensemble guidance at this time is indicating the heaviest precipitation will fall across eastern Kansas with QPF values around 0.10 inch. Temperatures for Friday and Saturday will be near normal for this time of year with highs in the 40s areawide and lows dipping into the 20s.

Sunday into early next week, troughing will exit the region to the east with ridging gradually building in from the west. A dramatic warmup is not expected, but temperatures will remain slightly above normal with highs reaching into the 50s under clearing skies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1104 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Main aviation concern will be gusty winds today into the early evening.

Upper level wave is moving out of the Rockies and into the Plains today. Ahead of this feature gusty south/southwest winds will remain in place this afternoon with gusts to 30-35kts common area wide. We should see an uptick in wind speeds after 20z for locations west of I-135 as a dryline works into the area, mainly affecting KRSl-KGBD. Winds will decrease some after 00z and turn to the west, but we will see a more substantial decrease after 03z. Widespread high clouds will also remain in place this afternoon and will gradually slide off to the southeast as the evening hour approach.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

For Today: A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for portions of central and south-central Kansas. Strong southwesterly winds combined with falling RH values and above normal temperatures continue to support extreme grassland fire danger. Dense mid/upper level clouds are acting to limit maximum winds as well as maintaining slightly higher RH values. Because of this, fire weather concerns may be limited some for our area. The frontal boundary will sweep across the area this evening, turning winds out of the northwest and ushering in much drier air. Therefore, fire weather concerns may linger through the evening.

For Thursday: Strong post-frontal northwesterly winds combined with much drier air will lead to very high grassland fire danger areawide on Thursday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>051-067-082.