textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Last day of mild temperatures for the area today before the winter storm impacts the region

- High confidence for a significant Arctic Outbreak with dangerous cold wind chills and impactful snow to affect the region for Friday through the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

There is still time to prepare for the upcoming winter storm system with somewhat mild temperatures today before the arctic air and snow begins affecting the region for Friday through the weekend. Current water vapor satellite imagery shows the upper level polar vortex dropping southward across Canada towards the Great Lakes region. This has started the arctic air march southward early this morning across the northern plains. The arctic air timing remains on track with previous forecasts to begin invading Kansas late tonight. The combination of arctic air surging southward and gusty northeast winds will cause wind chills to drop rapidly over the area Friday morning. The most dangerous wind chills of 10 to 25 below zero are expected to impact the entire area late Friday night through Sunday morning. Could very well see the dangerous wind chills linger into Monday morning. Model probabilities remain very high at 60-100% for wind chill values of 10 below zero or colder during the Friday night-Sunday morning period.

The model signal for snowfall timing/amounts has not changed a whole lot from the previous forecast cycle other than start time being a little delayed due to very dry low levels. The stronger lift is still expected to begin Friday night and persist through Saturday night. NBM model guidance has really ramped up the snow totals for central Kansas especially with very high snow to liquid ratios, and with surrounding office coordination we decided to expand the Winter Storm Watch to include all of central Kansas. There are a few concerns where snow will be battling dry low levels more so over central Kansas, and the snow could begin to taper off earlier but a long duration of lift is not needed given the very high SLRs for snow to quickly accumulate to 5" or more. Meanwhile LREF ensemble model probabilities of 40-70% for 6" or higher snow amounts continues to target mainly south central/southeast Kansas generally along and south of highway 50. This is the area that will see the strongest lift and longest duration for snowfall where amounts of 4 to 8 inches are expected with some locations possibly seeing higher than 8 inches.

Models continue to show another re-enforcing surge of arctic air spreading southward for Sunday night into Monday morning which will prolong the dangerous cold wind chills. The chilling effects of new fresh snow cover could very well hamper daytime highs for Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1136 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light westerly winds will start to shift overnight, becoming southeasterly by late Thursday morning. Winds will remain light with speeds under 10 kts. After 00z Friday, winds will start to shift to northeasterly, becoming breezy with sustained winds between 10-15 kts and gusts up to 20 kts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Monday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.