textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic low storm chances each night and early morning through mid-week next week.

- Temperatures remaining near or slightly above average for this time of year.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

OVERVIEW THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show strong mid/upper ridging across the southwestern CONUS with broad and deep troughing across the Great Lakes and northeast CONUS. This places northwest upper flow over the northern/central plains. The pattern will remain quite stagnant over the next 7 days with only very subtle variations in the strength and placement of the southwest CONUS ridge from day to day. Through mid-week next week, subtle perturbations embedded within the aforementioned northwest flow are forecast to sweep across the central plains each night and early morning. The exact track of these waves will be determined by how much the aforementioned mid/upper ridge has shifted into the central plains from day to day. Needless to say, the confidence in the precipitation forecast over the next week is fairly low. Still model guidance suggest there will be at least some rain and storm chances each night and early morning from tonight through Wednesday night/Thursday morning.

STORM CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING...

Let's take a deeper dive over the next couple of days or so where confidence in the upcoming forecast is a little higher. For this afternoon into late tonight, the latest CAM guidance has significantly backed off on showing a complex of storms impacting portions of northwest and central Kansas. This makes sense given warm mid-level temperatures supporting widespread convective inhibition across these areas. However, elevated parcels overnight will generally be uncapped across much of the forecast area. Short term model guidance is honing in on a region, generally across the Flint Hills, where an axis of 700 mb WAA is likely overnight tonight into Friday morning. MUCAPE is likely to remain well below 1000 J/kg, but effective shear around 40-50 knots could lead to some organized convection, and up to dime size hail is possible with elevated storms that develop overnight into Friday morning across the Flint Hills.

Short term guidance appears to be more aggressive with showers and storms Friday night into Saturday morning, particularly along and east of the I-135 corridor. Several models indicate a cluster of storms developing in Nebraska and northern Kansas during the evening hours ahead of a sharp shortwave trough. These storms are likely to congeal and progress south and east through the nighttime hours of Friday and into the early morning hours of Saturday. While storms are surface based Friday night across southern Nebraska and northern Kansas, damaging winds with gusts around 60-75 mph are possible. However, as storms continue south and east, it's likely they will become more elevated thus reducing the damaging wind threat. That being said, stronger updrafts embedded within the cluster of storm could produce up to ping pong ball size hail given 1500-2000 J/kg MUCAPE and over 60 knots of effective shear. Of course, there is the possibility that storms fail to develop, or coverage is more isolated across Nebraska and northern Kansas Friday evening and night than currently forecast. If this scenario were to play out, it's unlikely much will impact the forecast area Friday night into early Saturday morning.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY...

As mentioned previously, a strong mid/upper ridge will remained centered generally across the southwest CONUS over the next 7 days. Minor variations in where the ridge is located, along with potential leftover cloud cover from shower and thunderstorm activity each morning will drive afternoon highs each day across the forecast area. In general, afternoon highs will be slightly above average for this time of year with highs in the 90s each day. Additionally, lows will generally be in the upper 60s to low 70s each night. All in all, while temperatures will be slightly above average, it won't be nearly as hot as it has been the past 2 to 3 weeks.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. East winds currently observed across the area will gradually develop turn to the south/southeast through the morning hours, though speeds in general should remain below 12 kts. Additionally, thunderstorms observed over portions of central KS will continue tracking south here tonight, though impacts to terminals should be relatively minimal.

We continue to see the potential for more elevated showers and weak storms around or just before daybreak and lasting into the mid- morning hours. Currently thinking these will reside to the east of I- 135, though with coverage likely isolated in nature, decided to go without a mention at ICT with this issuance. Additional chances for showers and storms will return to portions of central KS later Friday evening, though confidence in location and timing is a bit too low for mentions at RSL/SLN at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.