textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening east-southeast KS.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend, warmup by next week.

- Periodic elevated grassfire danger, highest Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

THUNDERSTORMS:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A sharpening dryline combined with increasing large-scale ascent immediately ahead an approaching shortwave should support scattered to numerous thunderstorm development by 2-4pm, generally east of a line extending from Eureka to Dexter. Strong effective deep layer shear on the order of 50-60 kts combined with CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/kg favors severe weather. However, strong forcing coupled with deep layer shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline should favor rapid storm mergers and a mostly messy storm mode, which should temper a higher-end severe threat. Still, could see a few supercells with large to very large hail, especially early on and/or if storms can remain a bit more discrete. Damaging winds and heavy rainfall/localized flooding are threats as well. While an isolated brief tornado can't be ruled out given the decent low-level buoyancy, unfavorable low-level shear and a messy storm mode should temper the overall tornado threat. Activity should exit southeast KS by 7-9 PM.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector, as a potent upper trough and associated strong cold front/dryline combination approaches from the west. Strong instability combined with strong shear should support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the region. Storm mode and associated higher- end severe potential remains in question, as guidance has been speeding up the cold front, which would tend to support more of a messy storm mode, limiting the very large hail and tornado threat. Location and time...mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Hillsboro to Kingman between 2-11pm. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details the next few days.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another digging western CONUS trough next week along with returning moisture/instability, which could spell another couple rounds of showers/thunderstorms across the region Wednesday through Friday of next week. Stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through Friday. The warmest days look to be Thursday and Friday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into late Friday through the weekend, model consensus continues to support a substantial cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with below average temperatures Saturday and even possible near freezing temperatures early Saturday and early Sunday over central Kansas.

Rebounding temperatures back to above average levels are expected as we head into next week.

FOG:

With rich low-level moisture sloshing back northwest later tonight into a radiated-out airmass, thinking fog is possible later tonight into Thursday morning, generally south of a line extending from Cottonwood Falls to Newton to Kingman. Unsure of dense fog potential, so will let the evening-night shifts diagnose that further.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1220 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at central KS sites through the end of the period, while MVFR cigs and vsbys may impact south central and southeast KS sites early Thursday morning.

Stout westerly winds observed across central and south central KS early this afternoon are expected to continue into the early evening before dissipating and becoming southerly. To the southeast, introduced a TEMPO at CNU for TSRA during the 20-23Z timeframe per the latest short-term guidance.

While skies are expected to remain mostly clear for central KS for a majority of the period, low-level moisture flowing in from the south is expected to result in lower cigs and fog across far southern and southeast KS. Still not entirely sure if this reaches ICT, so decided to hold to MVFR for this issuance. Confidence is higher in MVFR to near-IFR conditions at CNU where greater moisture is expected to reside through Thursday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

THURSDAY...Increasing southerly winds in concert with low humidity and warm temperatures should support another round of very high to extreme grassland fire danger Thursday, highest over central and north-central KS, where a fire weather watch will likely be issued. Later shifts may need to consider adding Rice, Reno counties as well.

FRIDAY...Strong northwest winds behind a cold front may support very high grassland fire danger Friday over central and north-central Kansas.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...Increasing southerly winds may support more very high grassland fire danger over central and north-central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 9 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033- 047.