textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will gradually increase in coverage for central/south central Kansas Thursday-Friday, severe weather potential is low

- Another round of showers/storms possible on Saturday

- A stronger weather system could bring more chances for storms to the region Monday night-Tuesday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Patchy fog will be possible across the region again this morning. Warm air advection in the 700mb layer will spark off some high based showers over Nebraska early this morning. Some of this lift could extend further south for some high based rain showers to develop over parts of central Kansas this morning.

Meanwhile current satellite water vapor shows upper troughing over the southwestern states with embedded short waves inducing a plume of richer deep moisture to stream northward across New Mexico/Texas panhandle. This axis of rich moisture will shift slightly eastward with numerous showers/storms expected to develop over eastern Colorado/western Kansas today through Thursday. Some of this activity will gradually spread east into central Kansas on Thursday. The better chances for showers/storms looks to occur Thursday night- Friday mainly affecting central/south central Kansas. Limited instability and poor mid-level lapse rates will keep severe weather potential low this period. Models remain consistent with a final upper level short wave moving across Kansas on Saturday, but show some timing differences with this upper level wave. The Saturday period continues to show a slight uptick in instability which could spark off a few strong storms Saturday afternoon/evening. Timing of the upper level wave moving across Kansas with this possible uptick in instability will be the key thing to watch.

Sunday looks to be dry in the wake of Saturday's system moving east of Kansas. Longer range models/GEFS ensemble mean continue to forecast a more pronounced upper level wave moving across the Rockies and ejecting into Kansas for Monday night into Tuesday. This period has potential for ingredients coming together to produce strong/severe storms. We will continue to watch model trends for this period since it's still several days away.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 550 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Low clouds(IFR/LIFR cigs) and fog will affect most TAF sites this morning over central and south central Kansas. Similar to yesterday low clouds will begin to scatter out by late morning and early afternoon. Cigs will rise into MVFR range that continue to improve with VFR conditions expected this afternoon and evening.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.