textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers/storms today and tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible.

- Much cooler air gradually filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across mainly central KS.

- Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

TODAY--THURSDAY...Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with areas of drizzle will continue to impact the region today and tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaching slowly from the west interacts with a nearly stalled deep frontal zone across the region. Continued unseasonably rich precipitable waters, strong forcing, and marginal buoyancy should lead to pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding issues. However, with the exception of possibly far SE KS, much of the current flood watch is probably done with high convective rainfall rates and associated widespread flooding concerns, as this potential has shifted south into mostly Oklahoma (per HREF and REFS consensus) where the better instability resides. Nevertheless, will continue the flood watch as-is for now and let the day shift diagnose radar and model trends further.

SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night into Monday. The GFS and associated ensemble mean are more bullish with precipitation chances than other global model guidance, so left the forecast dry for now.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across the region by mid-late week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY-THURSDAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today and Thursday, and probably not quite enough, due to widespread clouds/precipitation and the shallow cool airmass spreading south across the region (which the NBM does not handle well). That said, thinking central KS will stay in the 50s today, with 70s likely over far southeast KS. Thursday temperatures should be fairly similar to today. Stout/gusty north winds will expand southeast across the region Thursday in wake of this strong storm system.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s to low 40s underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for mainly central KS early Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures, especially by next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 600 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Low clouds and off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact the region over the next 24 hours. Will likely see some IFR and LIFR for a time this morning, especially in the vicinity of ICT and GBD. IFR may expand across the entire area tonight. Confidence is low surrounding the timing of the off-and-on showers and thunderstorms, so only included prevailing VCSH for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ051>053-067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100.