textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will overspread the area late Thursday night into Friday as a compact upper low moves into the Rockies.

- Widespread showers and storms on Saturday will begin to diminish from west to east as we move into Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

A large mid/upper trough was situated over the Great Lakes area with northwest mid/upper flow extending upstream across the central CONUS. Another shortwave trough was situated just west of Southern California while a narrow ridge axis extended from the Southwest NNW over the Central Great Basin and into the Northern Intermountain region. This will lead to tranquil and mild conditions this afternoon and again on Thursday although an increasing pressure gradient force should allow for increasing ESE low level flow as we move through the day. Highs in the 70s will prevail at most locations through Thursday.

As we move into Thursday night, the shortwave trough over the Southwest is progged to move into the central Rockies. Elevated showers and thunderstorms will become increasingly likely(70-80%) as we head into the evening and overnight hours, especially for areas west of the Flint Hills after midnight as mid-lvl waa/isentropic upglide develop across the area. A slower evolution of the mid/upper trough could delay pops slightly. We continue to see PWATs in the 1.5 inch range across southern KS which is above the 90th percentile and near the daily max supporting efficient rainfall. We could see a brief lull in precipitation late Fri night/early Sat before the mid/upper trough arrives over OK as we move into the day on Sat when another round of more robust showers and storms impact much of the area, especially southern KS. Limited insolation and widespread precipitation will keep highs around 60 for Fri-Sat in many areas.

As we move into Sunday, we expect a break from west to east as we move through the period. This break may be short-lived as a progressive west/northwest flow helps steer another fast moving shortwave trough into the area keeping some low pops in the forecast.

Tue-Wed...Mild and dry conditions are expected to return to the Central Plains region as we head into the middle of the week. The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify over the High Plains and another robust mid/upper trough impacts the Ohio Valley area leading to mild and dry conditions across the Central Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025

VFR conditions will prevail across the region over the next 24hrs with light northeast winds tonight switching to the east and increasing a bit during the day on Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.