textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances early this afternoon through Monday morning. Mix of rain & sleet possible this afternoon, then a chance of patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight into Monday morning across central Kansas. A few thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight across south-central & southeast Kansas.

- Chances for thunderstorms Tuesday into early Wednesday.

- Additional chances for storms Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP analysis show zonal flow across the central plains with an embedded subtle mid to upper trough exiting the Rockies and entering the High Plains. This feature is going to be the catalyst for the development of showers and storms along with possibility of a wintry mix across portions of central, northern, and northeast Kansas.

As the aforementioned system approaches from over the Rockies later today, above the shallow cold air mass, widespread mid-level WAA will overspread much of the eastern half of Kansas. As a result, scattered elevated showers will develop across portions of central and south-central Kansas early this afternoon and quickly progress northeastward. Around 100-300 J/kg of elevated instability will support the possibility of a few embedded thunderstorms. Additionally, given very cold temperatures aloft, very small hail or sleet is also possible, especially across central Kansas where surface temps will be closer to the freezing mark. As mid-level WAA shifts eastward this evening, chances for sleet, rain, and storms will shift eastward with it. However, short term guidance continues to be insistent on the low-levels being saturated with very subtle low-level isentropic ascent overspreading the area, particularly during the morning hours on Monday. This should generally support at least patchy drizzle across much of the forecast area tonight into Monday morning. Wet-bulb temperatures are forecast to be hovering either at, or just below, the freezing mark along the I-70 corridor. This will be crucial as to whether or not freezing drizzle occurs across central Kansas, and whether elevated surfaces develop slick and icy spots tonight into Monday morning. Fortunately, the potential for a more widespread glaze of ice across central Kansas will be mitigated by warm ground temperatures from recent near- record warmth along with freezing temperatures being on the marginal side. That being said, if drizzle occurs with temperatures in the 20s, the potential for travel impacts will increase dramatically late tonight into Monday morning.

Coverage in precipitation during the day on Monday should remain isolated, and with temperatures forecast to warm well-above freezing, any precipitation that falls will be all rain. However, periodic chances for showers will steadily increase and persist Monday night through the end of the work week as an active pattern settles in across the central plains. Mid-range deterministic and ensemble guidance has consistently signaled a couple of rounds of showers and storms beginning late Monday night and lasting into at least Wednesday morning, if not later. This guidance is also suggesting the potential for a couple of strong storms Tuesday evening or night along the slowly advancing cold front. Modest instability around 1000 J/kg and effective shear around 55 to 65 knots will support the potential for organized convection, and a few strong storms producing small hail and gusty winds cannot be ruled out Tuesday evening and night. Additionally, PWATs are likely to be well above 1 inch ahead of the advancing frontal boundary supporting the potential for efficient and heavy rainfall with any storm that develops.

Additional storm chances have been noted for Thursday and Friday with guidance being split on exactly what will occur towards the end of the week. Some solutions, like the deterministic GFS, are much more aggressive with the return of ample low-level moisture overspreading the eastern half of Kansas ahead of a more progressive system. This would generally support the potential for scattered storms Thursday afternoon and night, some of which could be strong or marginally severe. However, more solutions, like the ECMWF, are much more conservative with moisture return ahead of a slower system. This would keep the potential for storms delayed until Friday, but the possibility of strong to marginally severe storms would still be a concern. There are a number of details still to work out over the coming days, so stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

An active 24 hours are anticipated across the area.

Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop between 15-18Z this morning and quickly move eastward throughout the day. Some locations along and north of I-70 could see a period of sleet and snow mixing in with rain. Additionally, during the afternoon hours, ceilings are expected to fall across the area, and at least MVFR conditions are anticipated area-wide between 21-00Z.

Ceilings will continue to fall tonight into early Monday morning, and IFR to LIFR conditions are possible at all TAF sites from 06Z through the end of the TAF period. Showers could linger across southeast Kansas well into the overnight hours. Also, patchy freezing drizzle and fog is possible across central Kansas late tonight into Monday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Marginal very high grassland fire danger is forecast both Tuesday afternoon and Thursday afternoon due to warm and breezy conditions. However, rainfall and more ample moisture will dampen fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.