textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms through mid-morning across portions of south central and southeast Kansas. This may re- aggravate flooding concerns in areas primarily south of US-50.

- Pattern change expected to begin this weekend and last through the week. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions are expected areawide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 130 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper wave positioned over the northwest CONUS alongside largely zonal midlevel flow extending toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, a stalled out frontal boundary spans from the Oklahoma Panhandle east to the Ohio River Valley. Showers and storms were observed earlier this evening near this boundary across southeast Kansas. Radar also indicates a thunderstorm complex rolling eastward across southwest Kansas on the nose of the 850mb jet along with showers and storms beginning to develop across southern Kansas. Though this activity should be more progressive than Thursday evening's storms, the abnormally-moist airmass may still promote pockets of locally heavy rainfall. Per the previous discussion, these may re-aggravate flooding concerns across areas primarily south of US-50. Latest short-term guidance suggests rain chances departing the forecast area by late morning.

Dry weather is expected to arrive this weekend and last through the rest of the week as the mid/upper ridge begins to build over the area. This feature will largely preclude chances for rainfall over the next seven days, and increasing heights and thicknesses will support warming temperatures throughout the forecast area. High temperatures throughout the region are expected to reach into the 90s and even low 100s by Sunday and last through Friday. Additionally, with current forecast dewpoints combining with the anticipated heat, thinking remains that heat indices in the 100-105 degree range are likely this coming week. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued Sunday through Wednesday for the entire area. This may be extended with later forecast cycles to include the latter half of the week as additional information becomes available. Furthermore, lee troughing across the High Plains will promote breezy south winds for many locations the forecast area throughout the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

MVFR to near-IFR ceilings are expected at central KS sites early this morning before joining south central and southeast KS sites later this morning in VFR conditions for the remainder of the period. Winds will largely be out of the south at all sites with gusts around/over 20 kts by this afternoon. Gusts will pick up to above 25 kts later this evening as the LLJ picks up. Subsequent LLWS rooted at 2 kft will develop after sunset and persist through the rest of the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM Sunday to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Flood Watch until 7 AM CDT this morning for KSZ067>072-082-083- 091>096-098>100.