textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers and storms are likely to continue along and south of I-70 through mid afternoon. Localized flooding is possible across portions of southeast Kansas.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms continue late Friday night through Wednesday. Strong storms are possible Saturday morning, and again Saturday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, upper air analysis and water vapor satellite imagery shows a subtle embedded shortwave trough sweeping across the central Rockies and out over the central plains with a stream of deep moisture extending from northern Mexico into the Midwest. A weak mid-level baroclinic zone with subtle mid-level WAA will continue to support the development and maintenance of numerous showers and thunderstorms along and south of I-70 from early this morning through mid-afternoon. Despite widespread convective inhibition, there's clearly more than enough synoptic ascent to drive copious amounts of showers and storms. Despite effective shear remaining quite weak (generally under 20 knots), a couple storms could be strong with wind gusts up to 50 mph, heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning being the primary concerns. With PWATs in the neighborhood of 2 inches and the possibility of training thunderstorms this morning, localized flooding cannot be ruled out despite very dry antecedent conditions. Generally speaking, storm chances will gradually wane from north to south this morning and early afternoon. With ample cloud cover lingering through much of the daytime hours, it's become nearly certain afternoon temperatures will stay below the 90-degree mark. As a note, this would be the first time Wichita has failed to reach 90 degrees since July 23, which would snap a 48-day streak with highs of at least 90 degrees for the city. Clouds eventually clear out by this evening. With clear skies, light winds, and ample boundary layer moisture, patchy fog appears increasingly likely along and east of the Kansas Turnpike late tonight into Friday morning.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

The forecast for this weekend is still a tad uncertain. After a quiet, warm, and muggy Friday with highs back in the 90s once again, global mid-range guidance remains persistent that convection across Nebraska on Friday will progress southward late Friday night and Saturday morning across eastern Kansas. Assuming the deterministic 00Z GFS and ECMWF are correct, this would primarily be driven by a robust nocturnal LLJ nosing into central Kansas along with widespread MUCAPE around 2000 J/kg with limited convective inhibition. It's a little too early to determine weather this complex of storms will be severe, but given the aforementioned instability and effective shear around 30-40 knots, severe weather appears like a possibility should this scenario play out. It should be noted that, while in their extended range, some of the 00Z/06Z CAMs show little to no activity in Kansas Saturday morning given a possible lack of convection in Nebraska Friday night. So, there is a chance no much of anything occurs Saturday morning. Regardless, the synoptic frontal boundary will be stalled out across northern Kansas on Saturday, and a few showers and storms are possible during peak afternoon heating along it. The main concern with showers and storms along I-70 Saturday afternoon will be the potential for downbursts producing damaging wind gusts. Shower and thunderstorm activity could linger through much of Saturday night into Sunday morning due in part to a subtle shortwave trough embedded in zonal flow aloft traversing eastward over the central plains. The frontal boundary is forecast to wash out by Sunday morning, and another humid day with afternoon highs in the 90s is expected for Sunday.

BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...

A more robust trough is forecast to dig into the Rockies and Great Plains by the beginning of the work week next week which could potentially lead to another period of active weather. It's a bit too early to get into the finer details at time; however, it appears increasingly probable that a cold front will stall out across Kansas Monday and Tuesday leading to potentially several rounds of showers and storms. Heavy amounts of rainfall don't appear to be on the table, but should this play out as currently forecast, it would provide meaningful rainfall to areas that need it. In addition to the potential for rainfall, much cooler temperatures are also forecast in the wake of the frontal passage with afternoon highs potentially in the 70s! Temperatures will recover slightly by mid- week, but will be near, if not slightly below, average for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 616 AM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Numerous showers and storms continue across a large swath of south- central and southeast Kansas this morning. Pockets of heavy rainfall have briefly brought MVFR to LIFR vis conditions to some locations, and this will continue over the next several hours as showers and storms gradually sink southward this morning and early afternoon. Also, IFR to LIFR cigs have overspread portions of central Kansas this morning along with some patchy vis restrictions. The expectation is for low clouds and patchy fog/mist to mix out after 15Z or so.

By 18-20Z today, most sites should return to VFR conditions with generally light and variable surface winds. Overnight tonight into Friday morning, clear skies, light winds, and ample low-level moisture will support the potential for patchy fog across mainly eastern and southeast Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.