textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible this morning, especially across central KS

- Continued above normal temperatures

- Most dry conditions are expected into early next week; rain chances return for the mid to latter portions of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

As of 3 AM Friday morning, a midlevel ridge axis was sliding across the central US. A deepening trough was coming ashore along the west coast. In addition, a shortwave trough was progressing through Alberta and Saskatchewan with a weak, attendant surface trough axis extending through the central Plains. At this hour, the weak trough axis extends from near Kearney, NE to near Hays, Great Bend and Pratt. Winds near this trough axis are less than 5 mph with dew point depressions of 1-2 degrees. This combination is allowing patchy fog development across central KS. Otherwise, a notable temperature gradient exists across the forecast area with central KS in the upper 30s to near 40 while southeast KS remains near 60. Confidence has decreased with the fog potential across southeast KS later this morning. Like the prior forecast discussion mentioned, substantial moisture advection occurred throughout the day Thursday with dew points surging into the 50s. Despite small dew point depressions of 3-5 degrees across southeast KS, southerly winds near 10 MPH are likely to inhibit widespread fog formation.

Transitioning into today, shortwave ridging will remain across the state with the weak surface trough across central KS. Shallow boundary layer mixing through 900 mb will result in another unseasonably warm afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 70s. There is a slight chance (<20%) that a low stratocumulus field will develop across southeast KS after sunrise lapse rates steepen within the moist boundary layer. Should this scenario unfold temperatures would likely remain the low 70s or upper 60s.

For tonight, the aforementioned shortwave trough across Saskatchewan will advance along the International border, ultimately shunting the surface trough through the entire forecast area Saturday morning. Northerly winds are expected in its wake. The plume of cooler temperatures will be tied to an area of high pressure, poised to move into central and eastern KS Sunday. As a result, temperatures will remain in the 70s Saturday afternoon. As the surface high moves into the state Sunday, high temperatures will remain in the mid to upper 60s.

A few rain showers cannot be entirely ruled out late Sunday night into Monday as a compact shortwave trough, ejects from the southwest US into the Plains. The strongest baroclinic zone will setup across northern KS, NE, and into MO/IA. This unfortunately keeps the best rain chances north and east of the forecast area. The best chances for widespread rainfall across central/eastern KS continue to be tied to a stronger midlevel trough passage for the mid and latter portions of next week. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

Fairly quiet aviation weather expected the next 24 hours for most TAF sites. However, could see patchy IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities over southeast Kansas late tonight through about mid Saturday morning, as radiational cooling maximizes amidst a relatively moist boundary layer. For the 18z TAFs, only went TEMPO 2SM SCT003 at CNU, although later shifts will need to assess further. Also did MVFR TEMPOs at ICT and HUT for patchy lower visibility, but chances are lower that far west.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.