textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are ongoing this morning producing brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds. Chances should come to an end across southeast Kansas by mid to late morning.

- Heat indices at or above 105 this afternoon across far southeast Kansas.

- Cooler and quieter this weekend. Temperatures rebounding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

Early this morning, a broken line of showers and storms was traversing southeastward along an advancing cold front across portions of southeast Nebraska into northern/northeast Kansas. This cluster of storms will generally ride along the axis of greatest elevated instability, which is laid out over northeast Kansas, and should remain north and east of a Salina-Chanute line. Meanwhile, additional showers and storms have developed further southwest of the main cluster in a region of mid-level WAA. Despite extensive convective inhibition from warm mid-level temperatures, there's more than enough ascent to overcome this and support continued thunderstorm development and maintenance. In general, the intensity of storms across the forecast area this morning will somewhat limited given the aforementioned CIN; however, some of the stronger convection could produce 35 to 50 mph winds gusts, brief heavy rainfall, and a few lightning strikes. With the leading cold front/outflow boundary exiting southeast Kansas by 12-15Z this morning, rain chances should come to an end along with it.

Through much of the day the main synoptic front will sag southeastward across the forecast area. While cooler air will lag behind the initial wind shift allowing for temperatures to rise in the 90s area-wide, drier air will be filtering in throughout the day keeping maximum heat indices in check for most locations. That being said, portions of far southeast Kansas will remain ahead of the front for much of the day. Compressional warming and moisture pooling ahead of the frontal boundary in these areas will contribute to afternoon temperatures near 100 with dewpoints in the 70s, which is more than enough to send heat indices above 105. The cooler air will finally arrive by tonight sending lows into the 60s.

Thanks to an anomalously strong surface ridge sinking southeastward across the northern plains and Midwest, a tight pressure gradient across the area will support breezy northerly winds throughout much of the day on Saturday. This will continue the advection of mild air into the region, especially along and east of the Flint Hills where many locations may only see afternoon highs in the low 80s. This milder airmass will linger into Saturday night, and lows will dip into the low to mid 60s.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

Mid range ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues to show a gradual rebound in temperatures, beginning on Sunday, thanks in part to gradual height rises aloft from a weak upper ridge building across the central plains. While Sunday will feature near, or just below average temperatures, seasonably hot conditions will return as soon as Monday and last through much of next week. However, the airmass will be much drier next week than it has been this past week. This will generally limit heat indices to the 90s and low 100s despite air temperatures being about the same. In terms of rain chances next week, there's a number of details that need to be worked out. That being said, some of the model guidance is hinting at a weak cold front stalling out across Nebraska and Kansas which would support the potential for thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening hours each day towards the latter half of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A frontal boundary is currently sweeping across the forecast area with locations in central Kansas already seeing winds turn out of the northwest. Winds will continue to switch out of the northwest through 16Z for central and south-central Kansas. Northwesterly winds will then be quite gusty through 00-02Z with gusts reaching between 20-25 knots. CNU will see scattered showers for the next couple hours with winds turning out of the northwest by 20Z. Winds will remain above 10 knots for CNU through the end of the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-098>100.