textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A warming trend through Thursday with record highs possible.

- A cold front will arrive late Thursday with isolated or widely scattered showers/storms possible over southern Kansas Thursday evening.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Breezy southerly winds have returned to the area today with above average temperatures prevailing. Southerly low level flow tonight will allow for a continuation of above average temperatures with lows in the 40s and 50s.

The mid/upper ridge over the Southwest is progged to translate eastward as we move into Wednesday-Thursday. This will allow the low level thermal ridge to amplify over the Central Plains bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures to the area. ECMWF EFI for maximum temperature on Thursday shows strong support for extreme temperatures with EFI values in the .9 to 1 range. A cold front is progged to arrive late in the day, shifting winds to the north and ushering in more seasonable air. Ahead of the front, highs in the upper 90s are anticipated. Afternoon winds may diminish within the prefrontal trough axis ahead of the cold front with dewpoints rising into the mid and upper 50s helping to reduce fire weather concerns for parts of south central and southeast Kansas. Meanwhile, in the wake of the cold front, a wind shift with much drier air and gusty northerly winds will impact central KS during the afternoon hours likely bringing increasing fire weather concerns to much of our central Kansas counties.

Some elevated showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two will be possible across southern KS in the wake of a cold front. Point soundings show relatively steep mid-lvl lapse rates but also a decent cap so coverage of storms could be limited.

A stable post-frontal regime is expected to overspread the area on Friday as high pressure settles over the area. As high pressure translates eastward away from the area on Saturday, breezy southerly winds will return allowing temperatures to begin to moderate. Dry and mild conditions are expected to return through early next week. As we move towards the middle of the week, southwest mid/upper flow may help bring an increasing chance for precipitation to the area as more subtle shortwave troughs are steered toward the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

VFR conditions will prevail across central and eastern Kansas the next 24 hours.

Breezy south winds early this evening will weaken some by around 00z and persist overnight. Additional breezy southwest winds are expected Wednesday, turning northwesterly for RSL.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 PM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

A cold front will arrive over central Kansas on Thursday afternoon shifting winds to the north and ushering in drier and more seasonable air. This front will continue moving southeast Thursday evening and Thursday night with isolated or widely scattered showers possible over parts of south central KS on Thursday evening. Ahead of the front, breezy southwest winds will prevail but may diminish in the prefrontal trough ahead of the front while relative humidity is expected to remain around 30 percent or higher for many areas.

A very high fire danger will continue for much of the area during the afternoon hours Friday through Monday. Breezy post-frontal northerly winds will be the primary driver on Friday while breezy south to southwest winds return on Saturday through Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 224 AM CDT Tue Mar 24 2026

Record highs are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday (3/25): Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 89 (1956) Salina: Forecast - 91, Record - 93 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 86, Record - 88 (1910) Russell: Forecast - 92, Record - 89 (1976)

Thursday (3/26): Wichita: Forecast - 93, Record - 83 (1918) Salina: Forecast - 92, Record - 86 (1910) Chanute: Forecast - 90, Record - 85 (1918)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.