textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Another dry and warm day today.

- Periodic isolated storm chances Thursday through Sunday.

- Potential for increased storm chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 317 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

As of early this morning, a weak mid/upper level disturbance was positioned over central/northern Texas. Additionally, a shortwave mid/upper trough was quickly progressing eastward across the northwest CONUS. The latter feature is set to eject into the northern plains later today. In response, surface pressure falls across the High Plains will tighten the surface pressure gradient across the region and will support breezy southerly winds this afternoon. Meanwhile, the disturbance over the southern plains will trudge northeastward over the next 48-72 hours. Despite ample cloud cover across southeast Kansas on Thursday, non-existent capping and perhaps just enough lift due to the proximity of mid/upper level system will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and storms for locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Severe storms are not anticipated given poor 3-6 km lapse rates under 6 C/km and meager effective shear under 10 kts. With the very slow movement of the aforementioned system, Friday will be somewhat similar. However, gains made in low-level moisture and diurnal surface heating will likely be offset by rising heights and subsidence aloft as the weak mid/upper disturbance exits eastward. Still, isolated storms cannot be ruled out east of the I-135 corridor.

With the disturbance's departure along with the amplification of mid/upper ridging across the southwestern CONUS, much of the central plains will reside underneath northwest flow aloft by late Friday. Global models continue to suggest weak perturbations in the flow skating across the High Plains and central plains this weekend which would leave the door open for a couple rounds of showers and storms moving off the High Plains and eastward into the forecast area. However, limiting factors, such as the influence the southwestern ridge, may inhibit thunderstorm maintenance into the eastern half of Kansas throughout the weekend (should storms develop out west). Long range global models show this pattern generally continuing into early next week with mid/upper ridging weakening across the southwestern CONUS, and a train of shortwave perturbations translating across the central plains. As such, active weather could be in store early next week. However, finer details, such as the potential for severe weather, continue to remain out focus at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jun 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

A few high cirrus clouds will pass over the area today. South winds will increase late this morning into the afternoon hours with gusts in central Kansas around 25kts. The south winds will decrease slight by sunset today.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.