textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Cooler below normal temperatures for Sunday and Monday
- Warmer temperatures return along with increasing fire weather danger on Tuesday
- Warm above normal temperatures for Wednesday-Friday along with light rain chances Wednesday night
DISCUSSION
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Cooler below normal temperatures will continue for Sunday and Monday with surface high pressure in control over the region. Southerly winds will return to central/eastern Kansas as surface high pressure shifts slowly east on Monday. Much warmer temperatures expected on Tuesday with southwest/westerly winds boosting downslope effects. Models continue to show a upper level wave moving on-shore over the northwest coastal states Tuesday night, then racing eastward across the Rockies and ejecting out into the central plains by Wednesday night. This system could bring some light rain chances to the area Wednesday night with vertical thermal profiles supporting all liquid for precipitation type. Otherwise, warm above normal temperatures look to continue through the rest of the work week for Wednesday- Friday. Longer range models/ensembles are predicting a surge of arctic air spreading southward across the northern plains for next weekend, which could bring some of this colder air southward into Kansas.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 1120 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A few lingering low clouds will clear out over the next couple hours. Then light northerly winds are expected overnight. Winds will increase above 10 knots between 14-16Z.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 212 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026
Fire weather concerns will remain low on Sunday and Monday with cooler temperatures and lighter winds. The fire danger levels will become elevated on Tuesday with the combination of gusty southwest winds and warmer temperatures. This will create very high fire danger mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike Tuesday afternoon.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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