textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Stout/gusty north winds today will lead to HIGH to borderline VERY HIGH grassland fire danger. Elevated fire danger possible again Wednesday and Thursday.

- Extended period of above average temperatures and dry weather through at least Friday, with record high temperatures in jeopardy Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

WIND:

A cold front will progress south through the region this morning, with stout/gusty north winds in its wake, strongest between about 9 AM and 3 PM. Similar to the last few days, thinking winds will tend to overachieve model guidance given strong cold advection and pressure rises, with a few gusts likely reaching 35-40 mph.

Additional breezy to windy days are expected Monday and especially Wednesday and Thursday, as low pressure deepens north-northwest of the region. GFS bufkit soundings support south-southwesterly wind gusts exceeding 30-40 mph Wed-Thu.

TEMPERATURES:

A slightly cooler mostly Pacific airmass in wake of today's cold front will support the coolest temperatures the next 7 days today and Sunday, with forecast highs in the upper 40s and 50s, although these numbers are still relatively mild for December standards.

As we head into the upcoming work week, deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support well above average temperatures through at least Friday, as anomalous upper ridging builds east over Mid-America. Readings will likely be warmest Tuesday through Friday, with ensemble mean atmospheric thickness near the upper end of climatology. Consequently, record high temperatures in the 60s and 70s will be in jeopardy Tuesday through Friday (Dec 23-26), with record warm lows in the 50s to near 60 degrees possible

Ensemble consensus supports an eventual modest cool down as we head into next weekend, although considerable uncertainty exists this far out.

PRECIPITATION:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support zero precipitation chances through at least Friday, as stout upper ridging builds east over the Heartland. Thereafter (next weekend into early next week...7-10 days in the future), there are some hints for increasing precipitation chances as a western CONUS upper trough approaches, but uncertainty remains high this far out.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 504 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

The main aviation hazard will be stout/gusty northerly winds spreading south across the region this morning, in wake of a cold front moving south. Gusts up to around 30 kts are likely. Winds will gradually subside by later this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

TODAY...Stout/gusty north winds in wake of a cold front will support some HIGH to borderline VERY HIGH grassland fire danger, but slightly cooler temperatures and less favorable humidity values should keep fire danger well below red flag/critical threshold.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...Well above average temperatures and the potential for gusty south-southwest winds may support additional VERY HIGH grassland fire danger mid-late next week. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

CLIMATE

Issued at 206 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Record High Temperatures in jeopardy this upcoming week:

December 23rd...

Site Forecast High Record High (Year)

Wichita 65 67 (1893) Chanute 66 68 (1982) Russell 60 66 (2021)

December 24th...

Site Forecast High Record High (Year)

Salina 68 71 (1955) Russell 67 72 (1955)

December 25th...

Site Forecast High Record High (Year)

Wichita 74 68 (2019) Salina 72 69 (1922) Chanute 74 71 (1922) Russell 72 75 (1950)

December 26th...

Site Forecast High Record High (Year)

Wichita 70 69 (2021) Salina 66 67 (2008)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.