textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will linger over southeast Kansas this morning. Severe weather is not expected.

- A severe thunderstorm or two may be possible late this afternoon into the early evening hours and again on Monday late afternoon into the evening hours with an isolated storm along the dryline.

- Better chances for severe thunderstorms and associated severe may arrive on Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances possible next Friday- Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms developing over central and northern OK will lift into parts of south central and much of southeast Kansas late tonight while lingering over southeast Kansas through the mid/late morning hours. This activity was associated with a subtle shortwave trough lifting out of the Southern Plains. Some subtle afternoon height rises/subsidence in the wake of this trough will likely preclude deep moist convection this afternoon for much of the area. There is a nonzero chance for a rogue storm or two to develop along the dryline late this afternoon/early evening as the low level winds back toward 00Z and the airmass is progged to remain only weakly capped. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates/ML CAPE over 1500 J/KG and veering winds with height/deep layer shear around 35 knots would support some storm organization with large hail/damaging winds assuming a storm can develop.

The dryline is progged to mix further eastward as we move into Monday with deep vertical mixing/strong winds impacting locations in the wake of the dryline. Deep vertical mixing will result in very dry conditions and gusty winds with extreme fire danger anticipated for parts of central and western Kansas. Once again, we could see an isolated afternoon/evening storm or two develop along the dryline late Monday as the cap weakens. If an isolated storm can develop, steep mid-level lapse rates/MLCAPE over 2000 J/KG and deep layer shear around 50 knots will support supercells with all modes of severe weather possible. The window of opportunity appears to be relatively brief along the Turnpike corridor before the cap returns during the evening hours.

Tuesday...a mid/upper trough is progged to emerge from the Southern Rockies late in the period. Very strong winds are progged through the column with 0-6km bulk shear progged around 60-70 kt. Given the magnitude of large-scale forcing for ascent, an earlier initiation seems possible as the cap weakens around midday or possibly even sooner. Early convection could impact the magnitude of severe weather as we move into the afternoon hours. However, if the cap can hold a bit longer, then we could be looking at more supercell storms with all modes of severe weather during the afternoon/evening hours.

The threat for severe weather may begin to move east of the forecast area as we move into Wed but there is still some uncertainty in the progression of the mid/upper trough and some pops were maintained in southeast KS to account for that uncertainty. Seasonably mild air is expected in the wake of the system with highs mostly in the 70s on Wed.

Breezy southerly winds and above normal temperatures will return to the area on Thursday as a mid/upper ridge translates eastward across the central CONUS. Meanwhile, the next vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to build into the Central Great Basin area. This mid/upper trough will move eastward into the Central and Northern Rockies on Friday. Another round of severe storms appears possible with activity along an advancing cold front, as well as storms developing along a dryline. The warm sector is progged to be moist and unstable while deep layer shear around 50 knots returns. This will bring the potential for organized storms and severe weather once again late Friday and Friday night.

A stable post-frontal regime will overspread the area on Saturday as sfc high pressure settles over the area. Radiational cooling early on Sunday could result in some frost as temperatures fall into the mid and upper 30s. Seasonable temperatures will return in the wake of the cold front with highs on Sunday in the mid 60s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Main aviation concerns will be overnight shower and storm chances along with some lower ceilings early Sunday morning.

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper impulse lifting out of central TX with a fairly large area of convection tied to it. This area of storms will continue lifting northeast overnight and is expected to move into south central KS around 09z and become more widespread across southeast KS in the 11-14z time frame. So at this point, it appears KICT and especially KCNU will have the best chance at showers and storms, generally after 09z. Area of storms should remain fairly progressive and should move out of KICT by 15-16z and will linger at KCNU through around 19-20z. Some MVFR cigs will likely accompany the showers and storms across south central and southeast KS late tonight through Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 250 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2026

Extreme grassland fire danger is expected on Monday and possibly again on Tuesday afternoon along and west of a dryline where afternoon relative humidity may fall into the teens. Deep vertical mixing will also bring the potential gusty southwest winds. The area of concern will be mainly west of Highway 14 or along and west of a line from Lincoln to Ellsworth to Kingman to Harper. Otherwise, spring green-up and higher humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas, especially areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

Breezy southerly winds will return on Thursday and Friday resulting in a very high grassland fire danger for Russell and Barton counties in central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.