textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms return later this evening to central KS. Gusty winds are possible with the strongest activity.

- Organized strong to severe storms are expected to develop Saturday afternoon and persist overnight. Large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a few tornadoes are all possible.

- Spotty chances for showers and storms Sunday through next week.

- Seasonable temperatures expected Sunday through middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight southwest flow aloft over the Central Plains as a stalled frontal boundary resides across western Kansas. Most locations across the forecast area are expected to remain dry for the rest of the day as thunderstorms develop this boundary in southwest Kansas. Short-term guidance indicates some of these may reach central Kansas later this evening, though this track may change depending on where storms develop. As such, kept isolated chances for storms in central Kansas through midnight tonight. The primary threat with these will be gusty winds considering DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg.

Overnight, two areas of focus are expected to develop. First, CAMs indicate storm development tonight in eastern Nebraska as a shortwave tracks eastward over the Northern Plains. While the main activity should move to the east, southward propagation may result in isolated activity reaching portions of southeast Kansas prior to sunrise on Saturday. Second, strengthening warm-air advection from the LLJ will promote showers and storms across northwest Kansas late tonight that will track to the east. Current expectation is for these to arrive in central Kansas Saturday morning similar to today, though perhaps a bit stronger. While these are not expected to be severe, could still see brief gusty winds with the strongest activity. Consensus among the CAMs gives higher confidence in this second feature impacting the forecast area, while activity in southeast Kansas is more conditional and dependent on the southward extent of storms.

Tonight's activity will influence storm development Saturday afternoon as an effective surface boundary gets pushed southward. The exact location of this boundary remains uncertain at this time, though the latest guidance suggests a placement Saturday afternoon somewhere between I-70 and US-54/400. This will serve as the focus point for thunderstorm development heading into the evening and overnight hours. With around 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE and 30-40 kts of deep-layer shear, severe storms capable of large hail, damaging winds, and perhaps a tornado or two are possible. Heavy rain will also be possible, which may cause localized flooding concerns.

Showers and thunderstorms will shift to the south and east Saturday night into Sunday, with some lingering activity possible especially Sunday morning. Opportunities for isolated showers and storms may persist Monday and Tuesday given a meandering mid/upper wave overhead, though as the prior discussion noted, limited flow aloft should preclude chances for severe weather. Stronger forcing for storms looks to arrive Wednesday afternoon/evening as another wave traverses the Northern Plains. Stay tuned as additional details come into focus.

In regards to temperatures, Saturday has the potential to be hot with forecast highs in the middle to upper 90s. However, uncertainty persists regarding how far south the previously mentioned frontal boundary pushes Saturday afternoon, which may result in slightly cooler temperatures than expected. Highs near 90 degrees are forecast Sunday through Tuesday before a return to the mid 90s areawide by the middle of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1124 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Main aviation concern will remain storm chances.

Storms that developed over north central KS several hours ago are now tracking southeast through northeast KS. If these hold together, there is a chance they may affect KCNU in a couple hours. Severe storms are not expected with this activity. Additional storms are expected to track out of northeast CO and into central KS after 09z. For now will keep with the thinking that KRSL-KGBD will be the sites most likely affected, before they start to dissipate. Last but not least, storms will develop late Sat afternoon along the front/outflow, which should be generally along the KS Turnpike. These storms would then affect KICT-KCNU after 22z Sat through early Sat evening. Some severe storms would be likely with this activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Saturday for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100.