textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles possible through Thursday. Absolutely no accumulation or adverse impacts expected.

- Chilly tonight through Thursday, with single digit wind chills early Thursday.

- Moderating temperatures Friday through Saturday, with another substantial cool down Saturday night through Sunday night.

- Possible light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday.

- Above average temperatures probable Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

PRECIPITATION:

A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak- modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper trough could support patchy very light snow flurries and/or sprinkles through Thursday. For tonight, thinking they will be primarily the first half of the night, and focusing mainly over southern Kansas Thursday. Weak to modest lift and very limited moisture will prevent any accumulation or adverse impacts.

For late Saturday through Sunday...Could see some light precipitation late Saturday through Sunday, as a shortwave moves southeast through the region along with an associated cold front. The GFS continues to be a tad more bullish with PoPs compared to the ECMWF and CMC, although the latter models are showing a bit more precipitation than yesterday. If trends continue, wouldn't be surprised if some PoPs are eventually introduced into the forecast, including some light wintry precipitation. Either way, a major storm system looks unlikely, with any potential impacts likely more of a nuisance. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Arctic high pressure will continue to plunge south into Mid-America tonight and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average temperatures and breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with single digit and low teens wind chills likely, and Thursday highs in the 30s.

Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday, but probably not quite as chilly as tonight through Thursday.

Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a return to above average temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday, as a stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds east out of the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s look probable.

Beyond that into late next week and next weekend, model solutions greatly diverge, with a large range in temperatures. Per NBM percentiles, the upper range is in the upper 50s for daytime highs, while the lower range is in the low-mid 30s. The battle is likely between solutions attempting to build the upper level high pressure further east over Mid-America (warmer), and solutions attempting to dig central-eastern CONUS upper troughing (colder). Consequently, forecast uncertainty is high surrounding temperatures, although mostly dry weather looks probable.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 532 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR ceilings persist across the area this evening. Skies will begin to lift from north to south between 04-06Z. Breezy northeasterly winds will continue for the next several hours across the region with gusts between 20-25 knots. A frontal boundary will move from west to east across the area on Thursday morning turning winds from northeast to southerly between 14-18Z.

A few snow flurries are possible across central Kansas sites tonight and for southern Kansas sites late morning/early afternoon on Thursday. This activity will not lead to any accumulation or operational impacts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.