textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near normal temperatures are likely for Friday and Saturday with colder temperatures forecast for Sunday before above normal temperatures return early next week.

- Mostly dry conditions will prevail through the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

Currently, there is a weak upper-level shortwave over Kansas with upper troughing over the southwest US approaching the Central Rockies. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the Midwest, stretching into Kansas and Oklahoma.

Tonight, low temperatures will remain slightly below normal with lows in the lower 20s. On Friday, low-level downslope flow will help moderate temperatures bringing highs into the upper 40s and lower 50s. Warmer temperatures will continue into Saturday as low-level WAA keeps highs on Saturday afternoon in the upper 40s to lower 50s. By Saturday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough over SD/NE will move towards the Upper Mississippi Valley. The associated surface low will push south through Nebraska Saturday afternoon into eastern Kansas by Saturday night. Given southerly surface winds will advect some moisture into southeast Kansas Saturday night, low chances of drizzle will be possible late Saturday night in southeast KS. However, at this time, the ECMWF is the most optimistic model regarding this solution. Better precipitation chances will stay northeast of our area. The aforementioned surface low will push a cold front through our area by Sunday morning, bringing in another surge of cold air. High temperatures will be in the mid to upper 30s on Sunday with breezy northerly winds.

Monday and beyond... Northwest flow aloft is forecast to persist in our area Monday and Tuesday as weak upper-level ridging sits over the western CONUS. The next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains Tuesday night. Its associated surface low will move east from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley Tuesday night, keeping precipitation chances out of our area. A warming trend will start on Monday as close to normal temperatures return with highs in the 40s on Monday afternoon. Warmer than normal 850 mb temperatures are forecast for Tuesday, aiding in the return of above normal surface temperatures. Highs are expected to range from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central and south-central KS on Tuesday, which is about 10 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM CST Thu Dec 4 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Light, southerly winds are expected through tonight. Winds will turn southwesterly in the morning ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. As this front moves across the region, wind will turn northwesterly as early as 19-21Z for central Kansas sites. South-central and southeast Kansas sites will see the wind shift between 00-06Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.