textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers, drizzle, and a few embedded thunderstorms will gradually exit to the east today. Localized minor flooding remains possible over mainly southeast KS.

- Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across much of the area.

- Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

TODAY...The upper low and associated deep cold frontal zone will traverse the region, with continued scattered to numerous showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms and areas of drizzle, mainly this morning, with precipitation chances gradually exiting to the east this afternoon. Still looking at the potential for localized modest to briefly high rainfall rates, especially overnight through early morning over far southeast KS. However, given the limited instability, rainfall rates will likely remain less than one inch per hour for most, so a higher-end flash flood threat appears unlikely, with any minor flooding likely confined to low-lying and typical flood-prone areas. The current flood watch runs through midday, and we may be able to cancel all or portions of it early.

For this afternoon, could have renewed scattered shower/storm development over southeast KS in vicinity of the advancing cold front. Despite decent effective shear, severe weather is unlikely given meager instability and poor lapse rates.

SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night into Monday. Lift and moisture is not very impressive with this system, and the GFS has backed off some, so left the forecast dry for now.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across the region by mid to especially late week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today due to widespread clouds/precipitation and the cooler airmass spreading southeast across the region. That said, thinking central KS will stay in the 50s today, with 60s and 70s further southeast. Stout/gusty north winds will gradually expand southeast today as the surface pressure gradient tightens in wake of the advancing cold front.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s for most underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for much of the forecast area with the exception of possibly far southeast KS early Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS, with breezy south winds developing once again by Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

A mix of IFR and LIFR conditions along with areas of drizzle and scattered to numerous showers will impact the region this morning, with conditions gradually improving from west to east this afternoon and early evening. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms this afternoon over southeast Kansas, but for now kept with the VCSH wording at CNU. Additionally, gusty north winds will gradually spread southeast across the region today in wake of an advancing cold front, with gusts of 25-30 kts likely. Conditions tonight will improve to VFR during the evening.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ070>072- 093>096-098>100.