textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon and evening; increasing potential for tornadoes

- Widespread rainfall continues tonight with the highest amounts across southeast KS

- More widespread shower and thunderstorm activity Thursday, a few severe thunderstorms are possible as well

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

As of 130 PM Wednesday afternoon, a strong midlevel low was located across west-central NM with widespread diffluence across the state. The axis of diffluence overlaps with strong low-level WAA producing widespread rain showers across the northern half of KS. Despite the lack of convective nature of the ongoing activity, PW values near 2" are resulting in occasional heavy rainfall. A very pronounced dry slot and slightly steeper midlevel lapses are advecting into southwest and south-central KS at the moment. This is transitioning the dense stratus cloud deck into more partly cloudy conditions. In addition, temperatures quickly warm into the upper 70s and low 80s across far southern KS/northern OK resulting in the development of 1000-1500 J/kg of surface based CAPE. This destabilization will continue to spread north and northeast into south-central and central throughout the afternoon hours. This destabilization will overlap with a moderately to strongly sheared environment (effective shear 40-50 kt). Dissecting the shear profiles reveals long, veering hodographs with 0-3 km storm relative helicity (SRH) values up to 300 m2/s2. The overlap of these ingredients is increasing confidence in at least scattered supercell development in the next couple of hours. The main concern, unfortunately, is tornadoes. The axis of greatest concern resides along and northwest of the KS Turnpike. Given the very moist boundary layer, the boundary layer will be slow to destabilize into the late evening/early overnight hours and may allow the severe thunderstorm potential to persist into the overnight hours.

The midlevel low and an associated speed max will eject into the Plains late tonight into Thursday morning. Strong height falls and WAA will result in widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, especially across southeast KS. Antecedent conditions remain quite dry across southeast KS with the past 14 days rain totals generally less than 1". As such, deferred on a Flood Watch for southeast KS as 6 hour flash-flood guidance remains between 3-4".

As the midlevel low/trough slides through the area Thursday into Thursday night, deformation precipitation will progress through the entire area. Instability will remain in place with upwards of 2000 J/kg of surface based CAPE across portions of central, south-central and southeast KS. Wind profiles become more unidirectional with straight hodographs, although effective shear values up to 40 kt a likely. As such, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible with large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall being the primary concerns. The Flood Watch remains unchanged since last night's expansion with an additional 1-3" expected for most locations. Isolated higher rainfall amounts are probable. Any lingering showers and thunderstorms will clear the area Friday morning as the trough slides east of the area.

For Friday and beyond, midlevel heights will increase as western CONUS ridge axis builds into the Plains. This should yield drier conditions but seasonable temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Sep 30 2026

Another round of showers and storms is expected to redevelop later tonight across the region and affect mainly southeast Kansas into the morning hours on Thursday. Low cigs in IFR and possible LIFR are expected to develop and spread southward late tonight. Ceilings will gradually rise into MVFR category but will linger through the day on Thursday. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will sink southward with winds switching to the northeast behind the front.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 11 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>049.