textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly above normal temperatures expected through the forecast period.

- While there will be small storm chances each night through most of the forecast, there still isn't a good signal for high chances of more widespread rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Currently, mid/upper level ridging is centered over the Desert Southwest with a trough over the Great Lakes region and extending across the Northeast US. At the surface, a couple of weak boundaries have passed over the region helping to moderate temperatures some. Some convection continues across western KS early this morning as WAA interacts with the boundary draped across the High Plains.

Looking forward through the upcoming forecast time frame, we're going to remain in much of the same synoptic pattern. The ridge will remain centered over the Desert Southwest and occasionally build into the Rockies. The Plains will remain under primarily northwesterly flow with periodic shortwaves and perturbations in the pattern grazing the forecast area and helping to push the ridge further south.

TEMPERATURES:

Temperatures over the next 7 days will be relatively stable, leaning slightly above normal for this time of year. Across the forecast area, normal highs this time of year are right around 90 degrees with lows generally in the upper 60s. With the current and upcoming pattern, we're going to remain largely influenced by the ridge with above normal heights leading to above normal temperatures. With the ridge axis to our west, light southeasterly winds will dominate. Highs will reach into the 90s for most across the forecast area, with those further north and east (further removed from the ridge center) seeing primarily lower 90s and those in south-central Kansas frequently reaching into the upper 90s. As perturbations in the pattern and shortwaves traverse the region, subtle shifts in temperatures will occur. Overall, highs will generally reach 5-8 degrees above normal each day (lower to upper 90s) with lows remaining 2-5 degrees above normal (upper 60s, lower 70s).

PRECIPITATION:

As the region and the forecast area remain on the northeast periphery of the ridge and under mid/upper level northwesterly flow, mostly dry conditions will persist. However, as the aforementioned shortwaves skim the area, they will open up the opportunity for isolated showers and storms. The area will remain under low-level southeasterly flow which will help to maintain a relatively moist airmass. PWATs across eastern Kansas will remain in the 1.25-1.75" range with dewpoints steady in the middle to upper 60s through the forecast time frame. Much of the rain and storm activity we'll see will be nocturnal in nature, deriving from diurnally driven convection that develops along boundaries to our north. These storms will follow the moisture axis into northern and eastern portions of Kansas during the overnight hours, before diminishing. Confidence remains low on overall coverage of storms as any activity will be highly dependent on small wiggles in the synoptic pattern.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Low clouds will impact central and southeastern Kansas sites this morning through around 14Z. Brief reductions in visibility will also be possible with this activity.

Otherwise, light northeasterly winds will turn easterly throughout the day and then become southeasterly for all sites overnight. There is an isolated chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm after 06Z for central and southeastern Kansas, but due to very low confidence, have left it out of the TAF for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.