textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm, expected this afternoon into this evening; no strong or severe weather expected

- Frost Advisory in effect for Russell and Lincoln counties Saturday morning

- Benign weather pattern through the weekend before shower and storm chances return early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

As of 1245 PM Friday afternoon, a deep midlevel low continues to spin across the Great Lakes region and adjacent areas of Canada. A shortwave trough, on the western periphery of the low, was progressing southeast across portions of SD and NE. An attendant, weak, surface trough extends from the mid-MS valley through northern KS. Latest satellite trends reveal an expanding cumulus field across central KS a top a deeply mixed boundary layer through nearly 700 mb. Latest radar analysis reveals a few showers across central KS within the aforementioned cumulus field. In fact, a few lightning strikes have been noted across Osborne and Rooks counties. Midlevel lapse rates are quite meager at 5.5-6 C/km across central and northern KS, resulting in surface based instability around 100 J/kg. As such, we don't anticipate any strong or severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon or this evening. This activity will gradually sink south and southeast throughout the afternoon and evening. While impacts are expected to be quite minimal, isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunderstorms are expected across most of central and south-central KS. All shower activity should dissipate around midnight tonight as the midlevel shortwave trough ejects into the mid-MS valley.

Transitioning into tonight, remnant cloud cover will slowly progress south and southeastward as an area of surface high pressure settles into northern KS. The most likely area for clear skies by dawn Saturday are across central KS. This region stands the greatest potential for temperatures less than 37 degrees with patchy frost. Given this potential, have opted for a Frost Advisory for Russell and Lincoln counties from 4 AM through 8 AM. Transitioning into the upcoming weekend, midlevel heights will increase behind the shortwave trough, yielding a warming trend with highs returning to the 80s by Sunday. The potential for shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday as a deep southwestern US trough phases with a northern stream trough. The potential for severe weather remains uncertain and trends will need to be monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Isolated to Widely scattered showers may linger over the area this evening but most locations are expected to remain dry. Maintained the VCSH mention at most sites before the activity diminishes by 5-6Z. VFR will also prevail but ceilings may come down to around 4-5k ft under a moderate shower. Light winds are anticipated through the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033.