textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for showers and storms return late tonight. Strong to marginally severe storms producing 50 to 60 mph wind gusts are possible.

- Cooler and quiet this weekend with highs mostly in the 80s on Saturday.

- Warming trend expected next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict upper ridging over the Central Plains as the mid-level ridge begins to break down. The remnants of a few showers and weak thunderstorms from earlier today continue to track into eastern Kansas, and most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry through the remainder of the day.

The latest short-term guidance continues to highlight a deepening shortwave tracking over the Northern/Central Plains later today into Friday morning. Showers and storms developing ahead of the associated cold front will move through a majority of the region later tonight into Friday morning amid an anomalously-moist airmass (PWs well above 2 inches). Per the prior discussion, strong to severe wind gusts are possible considering the abnormal moisture in place and DCAPE values in excess of 1000 J/kg, though these should remain isolated owing to sufficient convective inhibition at the surface. Activity will likely remain organized into the morning owing to support from the LLJ, but better organization to this point may be further to our north and east where the main nose of the jet will reside. Rain chances should come to an end by mid morning as forcing shifts to the south and east. In the wake of the cold front, locations in central Kansas will see seasonable highs in the low 90s, while portions of southern and especially southeast Kansas may see highs in the middle to upper 90s depending on how quickly the front and associated "cooler" air arrive.

Mid/upper ridging will continue across the Desert Southwest alongside broad troughing across the eastern CONUS as we head into the weekend. This pattern will look to keep the forecast area slightly cooler this weekend with northerly flow aloft and at the surface throughout the region. As such, highs mostly in the 80s are forecast on Saturday along with lows in the low to middle 60s heading into Sunday. This cooldown will be short-lived, however, as heights and thicknesses begin to increase with the eastward shift of the mid/upper ridge. As a result, a warming trend is expected to take place through the work week with widespread highs in the middle to upper 90s by Tuesday/Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected late tonight into Friday morning, especially across northern and eastern KS. Confidence has increased sufficiently to introduce a TEMPO group at SLN for TSRA. Otherwise, PROB30s were maintained elsewhere and short term trends will need to be monitored. Northwesterly winds will increase during the mid-morning hours Friday to near 15 kts with gusts near 25 kt.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-091-092.