textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures likely persisting through the next 7-10 days.

- Increasing rain chances late Friday through early Sunday. Greatest potential for 1-2+ inch rainfall amounts over southern Kansas and points south.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

TEMPERATURES AND WIND:

Per model consensus, fast, amplified upper flow coming off the Pacific will keep cold Arctic air bottled up well north of the region through at least the next 7-10 days. Consequently, above average temperatures look to persist across the region. The warmest days look to be next week, as southwesterly flow aloft develops over Mid-America, acting to increase thickness and low- level south-southwesterly flow. Daytime temperatures in the 60s-70s look likely per NBM probabilities. Furthermore, fast flow aloft over the Front Range will support periodic deep lee troughs and associated periodic stout/gusty south-southwest winds across the region next week.

PRECIPITATION:

Held onto very low rain probabilities Thursday afternoon and evening over far eastern Kansas, as a low amplitude shortwave traverses the Central Plains, and a weak surface trough moves through. However, rather weak lift and limited moisture should keep coverage very spotty and light, with the vast majority of locations staying dry.

The global model suite is finally starting to lock in on a loosely common solution for the late Friday through early Sunday weather system, with an amplified/deep upper low traversing the central and southern plains. While run-to-run wobbles continue, the overall consensus is favoring the highest rainfall chances over generally the southern half of Kansas.

Given the strong lift amidst anomalous precipitable waters and some weak instability, thinking rainfall amounts upwards of 1-2+ inches are possible, especially over southern Kansas and points south. As far as precipitation type goes, the lack of cold air across the region should keep precipitation all liquid.

There still remains some uncertainty on the exact track and strength of the upper low which will greatly influence forecast rainfall amounts. Stay tuned for later forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 526 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

Relatively light winds and high-level clouds will encompass the region today and tonight. Light northeasterly winds this morning will gradually turn to light southeasterly from west to east as the day progresses, as high pressure moves east of the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 128 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

NEXT WEEK...A return to well above average temperatures in the 60s-70s and periodic stout/gusty south-southwest winds looks probable throughout next week. This warm and windy combination should support periodic elevated grassland fire danger. There is some potential for critical/red flag fire danger at times if dewpoints/humidity can remain low enough. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.