textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday with probabilities for showers persisting through the weekend.

- Slightly above normal temperatures Today with near-normal temperatures through the remainder of the period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

A mid/upper ridge axis extended across the Northern Plains while a vigorous trough was digging over the Pacific Northwest. South of the ridge axis, one shortwave trough was lifting slowly over the Mississippi Valley area while another shortwave trough was pivoting NE across the Southern Rockies. As both of these shortwave troughs lift northward through the day today, low level southerly flow will continue to advect modified moisture northward into the Central Plains. We continue to see a weakly capped airmass today and we could see isolated afternoon showers or a rogue thunderstorm near the Oklahoma state line over southern Kansas. There remains little support for strong or severe storms given weak mid-lvl lapse rates/deep layer shear, so anything that develops is expected to be short-lived and diminish with loss of heating. A subtle LLJ and associated low level moisture transport will develop across western Kansas this evening/tonight and we could see a brief shower on our southwest flank across parts of central/south central KS on the eastern periphery of the flow but confidence remains quite low.

Wed-Thu...Showers are expected to increase in coverage across the area on Wednesday as the shortwave trough over the Southern High Plains lifts into the Central Plains late in the day. We continue to remain in an uncapped airmass while low level moisture advects northward, but once again weak mid-lvl lapse rates/deep layer shear will preclude more organized severe activity. A moist column is progged to arrive on Wed with 1.4 inch PWATs (90th percentile) setting the stage for efficient rainfall. Showers and more isolated storms may fester into the evening/overnight hours as the upper trough stalls over the area. Very little change is expected on Thursday while the persistent high PWAT airmass lingers across the region bisecting our forecast area bringing continued chances for diurnally driven showers and more isolated storm activity.

Fri-Mon...The pattern may continue to support shower and storm activity through much of the period as we remain moist and buoyant with very little change in the larger scale pattern. As we move into early next week, we may finally see some more stable air arrive over the area but confidence remains quite low at this time.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs with light southeast winds through the morning hours. Southerly winds will increase a bit across central Kansas during the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Meanwhile there is a chance for a few showers/storms to develop late in the afternoon across mainly southern Kansas. Low chances for thunderstorms impacting any TAF sites, therefore will not mention in the TAF forecast.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.