textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Today's temperatures 25-30 degrees warmer than average. - Very high grassland fire danger this afternoon for areas generally along and west of the Flint Hills.

- A modest cool down Tuesday and persisting through the week, although still likely at least seasonably warm most days.

- Mostly dry conditions for most locations through Thursday night, with increasing rain chances Friday through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

TEMPERATURES:

Anomalous upper level high pressure settling east over Mid- America will support continued unseasonably mild temperatures today. With the thermal ridge settling over the region and stout/gusty southwesterly winds ahead of our next approaching cold front, readings today will soar well into the 70s, with near 80 degrees possible over portions of central and south- central Kansas. Chanute has probably the greatest chance to break a record high (74 in 1932), although Russell could get close as well (81 in 1976).

Later tonight into Tuesday morning, a cold front progressing south through the region will cool temperatures by about 20-25 degrees for Tuesday, with stout/gusty north-northeast winds in wake of the cold front. These cooler temperatures will persist through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the 60s for many Thursday ahead of the next weak cold front.

Uncertainty increases as we head into Friday and Saturday, with the ECMWF and GDPS supporting cooler temperatures in the 40s given widespread clouds/precipitation, while the less pessimistic GFS keeps the region in the 50s.

Confidence is increasing in a return to well above average temperatures by Sunday and especially early next week, as a deepening western CONUS upper trough increases thickness and southerly flow across Mid-America.

PRECIPITATION:

Held onto low rain probabilities for Thursday through Thursday night, as a low amplitude shortwave traverses the Central Plains, and a weak cold front moves through. However, rather weak lift and limited moisture should keep coverage fairly spotty and light.

Uncertainty really increases as we head into Friday through Saturday night, as model consensus progresses an upper trough over the Central and Southern Plains. Run-to-run and model-to- model consistency continues to be rather poor surrounding this time period, hence the high uncertainty regarding timing, placement, and magnitude of forecast rainfall amounts. The latest ECMWF and GDPS progress a deep/amplified trough across the region, with high potential for meaningful rainfall amounts. In contrast, the GFS progresses a weaker trough through, with associated much lower rainfall amounts. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. Regardless, precipitation type looks to likely remain mostly liquid across the forecast area given the lack of cold air.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

Breezy/gusty southwest winds will develop by around midday today, with gusts up to 23-29 kts. Winds will subside by evening, although an increasing southwesterly low-level jet will support low-level wind shear within 1500 ft AGL this evening and tonight. As the night progresses, a cold front will progress south through the region, with breezy/gusty north winds in its wake.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 125 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Low relative humidity, well-above normal temperatures and breezy/gusty southwest winds will support VERY HIGH grassland fire danger this afternoon, generally along and west of the Flint Hills. The strongest winds and associated highest fire danger will be generally west of a line extending from Kingman to Hutchinson to Salina, but even there Red Flag/critical fire danger is not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.