textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous storms expected this evening through Sunday morning with severe storms and flooding likely.

- Additional round of storms likely late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms and flooding possible.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast for much of next week with highs in the 80s and periodic rain chances possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

An upper shortwave trough is tracking east across the Central Great Basin towards the Central Rockies with lee troughing strengthening over much of the Rockies. A surface low is in eastern Colorado with a warm front extending across northern Kansas. There are ongoing showers and storms in central Nebraska due to 850-700mb warm moist advection. This activity is moving southeast making it possible to clip our central counties late this afternoon. Another round of storms is expected to develop this afternoon in eastern Colorado and eastern Wyoming from upslope flow and convergence, resulting in another round of storms impacting our area. These storms are anticipated to move into western Nebraska and western Kansas and grow upscale as the upper shortwave continues to move into the Central Rockies. This round of storms would likely impact central KS after about 9 PM. There is still uncertainty with how far south and east this MCS tracks with some guidance suggesting another MCS diving southeast out of Nebraska through much of our area in the late overnight hours into Sunday morning. The main threats continue to be damaging winds with gusts up to 60-80 mph and potentially flooding concerns. Heavy rainfall is likely given the moist airmass with PWATs approaching maximum values for this time of year, increasing the potential for high rainfall rates; however, if this system remains progressive, it could reduce some widespread flooding. A brief tornado and hail threat cannot be ruled out especially this evening if storms develop out ahead of the MCS but the main concern is damaging winds. By Sunday morning, activity is expected to have shifted to eastern KS with storms progged to continue moving east into Missouri by mid morning, though chances may linger in southeast KS from low-level WAA.

A lull in storms is forecast for late Sunday morning through the early afternoon before another round of storms is possible late Sunday afternoon. There is some question as to where the outflow boundary from overnight/Sunday morning convection will end up. Model guidance suggests a boundary across southeast KS with convergence along it, resulting in additional storm development mainly in southeast and parts of southern KS. Assuming this is where the boundary sets up, plenty of instability and wind shear are anticipated making any storm that develops having the potential to be severe with the primary hazards being damaging winds and large hail. Storm chances will start to diminish Sunday night as storms move south and east of the area. Additionally, its possible for some of our southern most counties to approach Heat Advisory criteria if this is where the boundary sets up, though given uncertainty at this time decided not to issue one, though later forecast shifts can reevaluate.

Continuing into next week, most of Monday looks to remain dry as the front will be south of our area. Periodic rain chances look possible for much of the week as the upper air pattern remains relatively active as multiple shortwave troughs are progged to move across the region. A shortwave trough is expected to move into the Northern Plains late Monday night into Tuesday morning. Its possible for rain chances to clip parts of our area but better chances remain out of our area. Flow aloft transitions to westerly/northwesterly over the Plains as ridging builds into the western CONUS with embedded shortwaves anticipated to ride the ridging. This will keep periodic shower and storm chances possible through much of the week with higher chances likely in the evenings into the overnight hours. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 548 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

High confidence that a few rounds of scattered to numerous thunderstorms will track east-southeast through the region later this evening through early to mid-morning Sunday. For now included a mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups to cover this threat. Large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and very heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest activity.

Another round of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms is possible by late Sunday afternoon over southern Kansas. The ICT and CNU TAF sites would have the highest chances for this activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Sunday afternoon for KSZ033-048-049- 051>053. Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Sunday through Sunday evening for KSZ070>072.