textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms expected to redevelop later this evening and track across mainly southeast KS. Flooding will be likely with any of the stronger showers and storms.

- Unseasonably hot temperatures for both Tuesday and Wednesday with heat indices in the 100 to 105 range across southern and southeast KS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Looks to be a few different mid/upper impulses impacting the Plains. One is lifting across northeast Nebraska with what is left of the main upper low now lifting across north central KS. Last but not least, water vapor imagery shows another piece of energy tracking northeast across eastern OK. A tropical like airmass remains in place with PW values in the 175-200% of normal range, especially across southeast KS. Out west, shortwave trough stretches from the Northern Intermountain into the Northern Rockies.

925-850mb moisture transport has been maximized across eastern OK into Southeast KS for much of the day and this area is slowly pushing east, as is the stronger showers/storms. Rainfall rates in this airmass remain extremely high, with even small showers producing 2 inch/hr rates. Sct showers and iso storms are expected to keep shifting east late this afternoon into the early evening. As upper impulse tracks across eastern KS into MO this evening, a tight mid level baroclinic zone is expected to setup. There is also good model agreement in a low level jet developing and veering as the evening hours progress. Confidence is increasing that convection will redevelop after 03z across the Flint Hills into southeast KS in response to 850mb moisture transport and good speed convergence. With extremely high PW's remaining, flooding will remain the main threat and went ahead and extended the flood watch through Mon morning.

Upper troughing will encompass most of the western CONUS to start the work week with southwest flow aloft from the Desert Southwest through the Northern/Central Plains. Current thinking is that storms will develop late Mon afternoon over southwest Nebraska/nw KS in an area of moist upslope flow. Will keep with the thinking that most of this activity should stay north of the forecast area. Shortwave energy will track across the Northern/Central Rockies on Tue and across the Northern/Central Plains on Wed. Storms will be possible Wed evening across central and especially northeast KS as low level jet once again ramps up. Confidence is low on how far southwest they make it due to warming mid level temps and associated capping issues. Very weak cold front is expected to move through during the day Thu and will keep storms around, especially for southern and southeast KS.

Still looking for unseasonably hot temperatures for both Tue and Wed with heat indices in the 100-105 range likely for southern and southeast KS. Some locations west of I-135 will have the potential to reach 100 degrees.

Low level moisture will quickly return on Fri as the surface high shifts east with some High Plains convection likely. This activity will try and track east and will keep storm chances around for Fri into Sat.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1206 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

IFR/MVFR conditions continue for the area with the exception of KRSL/KGBD. Sites elsewhere should begin to improve in the next few hours as visible satellite shows the area of cloud cover beginning to scatter as the upper trough slowly moves through the region. Models indicating a return of showers/storms late tonight mainly impacting southeast kansas with heavy rainfall. IFR/MVFR cigs look to return early tomorrow morning as low level moisture streams in from the south.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday morning for KSZ095-096-098>100.