textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy dense fog this morning, especially across central KS

- Shower and thunderstorm chances arrive late tonight into (30-60%) Thursday morning; widespread showers (80-90%) Thursday into Friday

- Additional shower chances late this weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 354 AM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

As of 330 AM Wednesday morning, shortwave midlevel ridging was sliding through the Plains as a deepening trough was coming ashore across southern CA. At the surface an area of high pressure extends from central KS through MN and WI. Light winds and occasional clear skies continue to produce patchy dense fog, especially across central KS where wind speeds are the lightest. The plume of midlevel moisture from the Baja region continues to produce occasional midlevel clouds across the state, limiting the potential for widespread, persistent dense fog.

Transitioning into today and tonight, the surface ridge will quickly side east through the day today as lee troughing develops across the high Plains with the approach of a southwest US midlevel trough. The initial impacts from this midlevel trough will arrive late tonight night into Thursday morning as modest WAA overspreads portions of south-central and southeast KS. In addition, midlevel lapse rates will steepen to 6-8 C/km across the Plains with the approach of the midlevel trough. Latest CAM guidance continues to suggest low-level saturation will be sufficient for the erosion of inhibition of 1000- 1500 J/kg of MUCAPE, mainly across southeast KS. In addition, hodographs within this elevated environment reveal both veering and acceleration of the wind profile, producing upwards of 30-40 kt of effective shear. As a result, the strongest storms late tonight into Thursday morning will carry a large hail threat.

Strong midlevel height falls will overspread the central Plains Thursday afternoon into Thursday night, resulting in widespread rainfall. Additional deformation precipitation is likely Friday into Friday evening as the midlevel level trough slowly progresses into the MS valley. Latest NBM probabilistic guidance suggests all of central, south-central, and southeast KS stand a 90-100% for receiving more than 0.50" of rain through Friday evening. The potential for more than 1" of rainfall ranges from 50-60% across central KS to near 90% across southeast KS.

Midlevel ridging will slide into the central/southern Plains throughout the weekend with mostly sunny skies and seasonable temperatures in the 50s to near 60 expected. Another strong midlevel trough will begin its approach the central Plains by late weekend into early next week. Shower chances will once again increase with its approach. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CST Wed Nov 19 2025

Increasing mid-level moisture ahead of a western US storm system will spread hit-or-miss light showers east-northeast across the region late this afternoon through the evening. Thinking this activity will be fairly light and scattered, so only included PROB30 -SHRA from late this afternoon through the evening at most TAF sites.

Later tonight over southeast Kansas, increasing deep warm/moist advection and associated instability will support scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms, possibly impacting the CNU TAF site between roughly 07z and 12z. Later shifts may need to consider adding a TEMPO group for this threat at CNU.

Widespread rain with embedded thunderstorms will gradually increase from the south late morning Thursday through the afternoon all areas, and persisting through Thursday night all areas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.