textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered strong to marginally severe storms are possible across south-central & southeast Kansas this afternoon. Main concern is downbursts causing damaging wind gusts between 55-65 mph.

- Heat indices between 105 and 109 are likely this afternoon and early evening across south-central and southeast Kansas.

- Additional storms are likely tonight through Thursday morning. Main concern will be the potential for locally heavy rainfall and minor localized flooding.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms continues Friday through Tuesday with the best chances being Friday night through Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

TODAY AND THURSDAY...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows a vort max rounding the southern end of broad trough over southern Canada with a stream of moisture extending from the eastern Pacific to the Great Lakes. At the surface, a stalled cold front is draped across Kansas from the northern KC metro to Liberal. Additionally, broad mid-level WAA extends from the Upper Midwest to eastern Colorado supporting the continuation of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms across northern and western portions of Kansas despite ample and widespread convective inhibition. Throughout the day, the aforementioned cold front and mid-level baroclinic zone will sag southward. A few elevated showers and storms are possible this morning into early afternoon across central Kansas. Later in the afternoon, sufficient destabilization is likely to occur across south-central and southeast Kansas thanks to moisture pooling along the frontal boundary and ample diurnal heating. Model soundings from almost the entire 00Z CAM suite show a classic inverted-v profile along the frontal boundary. With a few thunderstorms expected to develop along the cold front and shear being fairly meager (under 15-20 knots of 0-6 km shear likely), microbursts producing 55-65 mph wind gusts are possible. Coverage of thunderstorms this afternoon remains somewhat in question which is why medium PoPs (30-50%) were held between 18-00Z today across southern and southeast Kansas. In addition to storm chances, the heat and humidity south of the approaching cold front will support another afternoon with heat indices between 105 and 109 across south- central and southeast Kansas.

The loss of diurnal heating after 00Z will support a brief lull in shower and thunderstorm activity across the southern half of Kansas late this evening into early tonight. However, with the mid-level baroclinic zone still forecast to be over southern Kansas along with the LLJ slightly ramping up after sunset, scattered to potentially numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to develop south of the I-70 corridor after 03Z. The 00Z CAMs showed a decent uptick in convection overnight tonight through much of Thursday, and this makes sense given ample mid-level WAA and an approaching shortwave trough trekking eastward out over the central and northern plains. It's possible a few of these storms could be strong with heavy rainfall and frequent lightning, but the overall damaging wind threat will be lower than this afternoon. The primary concern for activity overnight through Thursday morning will be the potential for localized flooding given very high PWATs (over 2 inches) and possible training thunderstorms along the frontal boundary/mid-level baroclinic zone. However, some of these concerns will be mitigated by the fact that it has been incredibly dry over the past 2 months or so. Still, some low-lying and flood prone areas could see some flooding if thunderstorms train over the same area for several hours. As the baroclinic zone continues drifting southward on Thursday, and broad subsidence overspreads the region, rain chances will gradually end from north to south. Given ample cloud cover throughout the day, it's likely much of the region will see the coolest afternoon highs (mid 80s) in almost 50 days!

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain by the end of the work week through the beginning of next week. Global mid-range guidance is signaling zonal upper flow increasing across the central plains by Friday with potentially a series of embedded shortwave troughs traversing eastward over the region Friday through the beginning of next week. Some of the aforementioned mid range guidance is hinting at several rounds of showers and storms Friday night through Sunday morning across eastern Kansas. However, there's still enough spread in the guidance for only medium (30-60%) chances for showers and storms in this period. Active weather is possible for the beginning of next week as well. However, the spread in long range global models is leading to low confidence in the forecast this far out. Despite PoPs in the forecast for Sunday night through Tuesday night, this may be subject to change in future forecasts.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 612 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

An active 24 hours is expected across the forecast area.

A slowly moving cold front is sagging southward across central Kansas this morning with isolated showers and storms festering along it. Some of this activity this morning could produce brief heavy rainfall and occasional lightning strikes, but impacts will remain limited. As the front sinks into southern and southeast Kansas later today, additional showers and storms are forecast to develop along it. These storms could produce localized downbursts with wind gusts around 40 to 55 knots.

After 00Z, the threat of microbursts will diminish, but more numerous storms are forecast to develop, and heavy rainfall is expected to become the primary concern. This heavy rainfall could lead to temporary vis restrictions, especially in stronger storms. Chances for showers and storms will gradually come to an end after the end of the TAF period.

Lastly, as the front passes from north to south over the next 24 hours, 5 to 10-knot surface winds will shift from southerly to northerly.

CLIMATE

Issued at 333 AM CDT Wed Sep 9 2026

Near record highs are forecast for Wichita & Chanute today.

Wichita - Forecast: 100 ... Record: 102 in 1970

Chanute - Forecast: 102 ... Record: 103 in 1925

Additionally, Wichita may extend it's consecutive streak of at least 100-degree highs to 12 days, which would remain the 7th longest streak since records began in 1889. Wichita will likely extend it's consecutive streak of at least 90-degree highs to 48 days, which remains the 4th longest streak since records began in 1889. Wichita has seen 8 consecutive days of at least 100-degree highs in the month of September which smashes the previous record of 5 consecutive days set in September of 1985 and 1998, and 9th day is possible today.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ069>072-082- 083-091>096-098>100.