textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall is possible Friday into Saturday and again early next week.

- A low potential for a few strong or severe storms on Monday.

- Near to above normal temperatures are expected through much of the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

WSW mid/upper flow persists over the Central Plains this afternoon with a tight pressure gradient and breezy southerly flow across the region. A rogue shower or thunderstorm may be possible late this afternoon and evening (through around 10 PM) along the prefrontal trough axis or along the cold front across central KS where low level mass convergence will allow sfc dewpoints to pool. A capping inversion should preclude more widespread development. We could also see some patchy fog development along and in the wake of the frontal boundary across parts of central KS late tonight and into the morning hours on Thu where light ENE low winds are progged and boundary layer moisture may not be scoured out.

As we move into Thu, an uncapped airmass and abundant moisture in the pbl could allow for an afternoon shower or storm but with some mid-lvl height rises under the influence of ridging, confidence remains rather low. The remnant frontal boundary could also provide a focus and this boundary is expected to be situated along I-70 corridor where some low pops were maintained late in the period and into the evening hours as we see some enhancement of the LLJ nosing into mainly northern KS.

A more robust shortwave trough is progged to lift out of the Southern High Plains as we move into the day on Friday. This should bring a period of more widespread shower with embedded thunderstorm activity to the area as we move into the late morning/early afternoon hours with activity lingering into Friday night and Saturday as the negatively trough lifts over the area. We continue to see some timing differences but there may be a break in the action as we move into Sunday with shortwave ridging returning to the area.

This break will be short-lived as another more robust mid/upper trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies early next week bringing increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms once again. As the previous shift noted, this system could bring unsettled weather through the middle of the week with strong winds, heavy rain and some potential for strong or severe storms as well. Stay tuned as we refine the details in the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Wed Oct 28 2026

Southerly winds have increased to 15-20kts with gusts up to 30kts this afternoon. These winds will continue through the late afternoon/early evening. A front will move south into central KS early this evening, decreasing winds to around 10kts at all sites and shifting them to northerly/northeasterly after 00z at GBD, RSL, and SLN. The front will stall out across central KS, keeping winds out of the south at HUT, ICT, and CNU through this TAF period. An isolated shower or storm may be possible late this afternoon into tonight mainly in central KS, though due to high uncertainty on location and impacts, did not include mention. Patchy fog is also possible to develop near RSL and GBD early Thursday morning, though this will continue to be monitored due to lower confidence. MVFR to IFR ceilings are also likely in central KS after 12z and will last through late Thursday morning to early afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.