textproduct: Wichita

..Updated Aviation Discussion

.KEY MESSAGES.

- Widespread storms this evening through Sunday morning, with severe storms and flooding likely.

- Additional storms possible Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening across southern and southeast KS. Severe storms and flooding would also be possible with this activity.

- Below normal temps likely through all of next week with highs in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

Currently have an upper impulse tracking across the Central Great Basin with additional upper energy tracking across the Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure stretches across the Northern and Central Plains with a stationary front stretching from eastern MO through Central KS.

A few showers and storms continue to linger across northeast KS in an area of upper diffluence which is fairly close to the right entrance region of an upper jet.

Front bisecting KS will start to lift north today and by the late afternoon hours will be near or just south of the KS/NE border. Still looking for a couple different MCS's to develop late this afternoon/evening. One will be over central Nebraska, north of the front, in response to increasing 850-700mb theta-e advection. Additional storms will then develop over northwest KS/northeast CO near or just south of the front in an area of good surface convergence and upslope flow. Convection will also be aided by large scale lift from the impulse approaching from the Great Basin/Central Rockies. Fast moving MCS is then forecast to move through at least the northern half of the forecast area this evening through the overnight hours. Damaging winds will be the primary threat as this MCS rolls east with some large hail also possible, especially earlier in the event. The main question will be how far south storms make it. The more global models track the MCS generally along I-70 while the CAMs take it further south. Even though storms will remain fairly progressive, very high PWs will result in high rainfall rates which may lead to some flooding, especially across the northeast portion of our forecast area.

By Sunday morning, MCS will be tracking through eastern KS into MO with heavy rain and damaging winds still possible. It's possible we may continue to see storms regenerate on the southwest flank of complex of storms as 850mb moisture continues to feed into it. Some of this activity may linger into Sun afternoon. Whether or not surface based convection will be able to develop Sun afternoon will depend on how far south outflow makes it and if southern/se KS can recover. While confidence is high that there will be another round of storms Sun evening, confidence is low on if it will affect southern KS, or develop just south of our forecast area. Once again, this will be highly dependent on where outflow from overnight MCS ends up. If storms do develop further north, we could be looking at another round of heavy rain for part of the Flint Hills into southeast KS.

By Mon morning, storms will be moving south of the forecast area as cold front also continues to push south. Still looking for pattern to remain active with good model agreement in another shortwave trough moving out of south central Canada and into the northern Plains by Tue afternoon. This setup will continue to promote decent upslope flow across western KS/eastern CO with storms likely in these locations. So there's a chance some of this activity may try and move into the area for Tue evening/night. Pattern really doesn't change much for Wed-Fri, with upper ridging remaining over the Desert Southwest with northwest flow aloft from the Rockies through the Plains. This will continue to bring periodic chances for storms as weak upper perturbations move through the northwest flow.

Temps will be a challenge for Sun as they will be highly affected by where outflow is located. If it doesn't make it through southern KS, then a few locations may reach the mid 90s. Outside of this scenario, confidence remains high in below normal temps remaining through all of next week, with highs in the 80s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

We're watching a cluster of showers/thunderstorms currently over central/southern Nebraska. On its current track, this activity should stay just east-northeast of SLN. However, if starts tracking a bit more south, it would get into SLN by around 21-22z early this evening. Will continue to monitor for possible amendments.

Otherwise, high confidence that off-and-on scattered to numerous thunderstorms will track east-southeast through the region later this evening through early to mid-morning Sunday. For now included a mix of TEMPO and PROB30 groups to cover this threat. Large hail, damaging straight-line winds, and very heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Sunday afternoon for KSZ033-048-049-051>053. Flood Watch from late tonight through Sunday evening for KSZ070>072.