textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog should gradually dissipate this morning.

- Showers with a few rumbles of thunder are likely (70-90% chances) for areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike starting late tonight into the morning hours of Sunday.

- Strong to severe storms remain possible to start next week with the best chances on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Overnight fog persists with the greatest visibility reductions in central Kansas (Lincoln to Rice counties and west) down to 1/2 mile or less. The Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9AM with improvements possible even prior to that expiration time. While fog did develop further south as well, it is not as dense and briefly lasting around 1/2 mile. Just to the north of the fog, convection developed with the combination of moisture transport, warm air advection and the low level jet as expected; this activity has stayed across far north and northeast Kansas tracking northeast. Most of the day should stay with a lull in the precipitation as thought previously given the mid and upper level ridge. There are increasing chances (30-40%) in the afternoon for shower and thunderstorm development with the low level theta-e advection; however, the better potential for precipitation will be overnight as a wave pushes east into the Plains combined with better moisture advection and warm air advection. Initial development is anticipated this evening in Oklahoma then tracking northeast east into south central and southeast Kansas after 6Z (1AM) possibly closer to 9Z (4AM). Highest confidence remains southeast of the Kansas Turnpike with 60-90% chances of showers and maybe a few rumbles of thunder given limited instability over the impacted area. Rain could last into the early afternoon in southeast Kansas while drier air moves in further west. As a dryline sets up to divide Kansas almost in half, this could prompt convective initiation with 1.5-3k J/kg CAPE available combined with 30-40 kts of 0-6km bulk shear. The environment is highly conditional with a better chance for any initial development just to the west after 21Z (4PM) and moving east into an area following the early morning rain. Given the potential environmental factors, very large hail, damaging winds and even a tornado could be in play but it all depends if something would develop.

Following the exit of the ridge, we move into a southwest flow regime for the start of the week in concert with a few of waves tracking through the Central Plains. Monday and Tuesday still appear to have the potential for isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms with the hazards of large hail, damaging winds and even a few tornadoes. Some uncertainty remains in the location and timing which should continue to be refined in upcoming forecasts. The on and off chances for showers and thunderstorms in this active pattern persists through the work/school week.

Temperatures: High temperatures are generally forecast from the mid 70s to mid 80s which are 10-20 degrees above seasonal normal. Low temperatures are forecast in the lower 50s to mid 70s. There is potential for near warm low records to be set from Sunday to Tuesday. A cool down could be in store for next weekend bringing us down even below normal for Saturday. There is plenty of time for this to change.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A upper level wave will move across the region this afternoon with scattered showers/storms developing over the area. Meanwhile gusty south winds will prevail across the area into the evening hours. Another round of showers/storms is expected late tonight mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike. This activity will spread slowly eastward and linger over southeast Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. In addition, low clouds in MVFR/IFR category will develop late tonight over southern and southeast Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 352 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The main days for very high grassland fire danger are Monday and Tuesday for primarily portions of north central Kansas (Russell and Barton counties). Minimum relative humidities (RH) are forecast to range from 15-25% in the afternoon along with 15-25 mph winds. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms later today into tonight which when combined with the green up could help reduce the fire risk. Unfortunately the better chances for precipitation remain to be south and east.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.