textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated late afternoon/early evening storms moving into central Kansas may produce strong wind gusts of 50-60 mph today and again on Monday.

- Shower and thunderstorms coverage is expected to increase late Tuesday with periodic rounds of showers and storms lingering through next weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated as we move into into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Relatively weak WNW mid/upper flow prevails over the central CONUS early this morning as the ridge over the Southwest gradually propagates eastward towards the Southern Plains. Areas of fog were already developing in southeast KS where recent rainfall occurred. Patchy dense fog is likely as high pressure builds over the area bringing light winds and clearing conditions.

Low level southwesterly flow will advect modified Gulf moisture northward over the Central High Plains today as surface high pressure builds slowly into the Middle Mississippi Valley area. Deep vertical mixing over the Central High Plains is progged and we could see a narrow line of showers and storms develop late in the day on the western periphery of the modified moist axis. Anything developing here may propagate toward our central KS counties along the I-70 corridor through early evening before quickly dissipating. Given steepening mid-lvl lapse rates and 30 kts of deep layer shear, we could see some strong and/or damaging wind gusts with any storm that manages to develop.

As we move into Monday, the pattern remains quite similar, although we will begin to see more influence from the mid/upper ridge and deep layer shear is progged to weaken. A weakly capped airmass is progged once again on the western periphery of the moist axis which could result in isolated or widely scattered storms developing over the Central High Plains. Some of this activity could drift into our central KS counties and low pops were maintained. Any storms developing could produce some strong wind gusts but the coverage of storms is expected to remain low given lack of large-scale forcing for ascent and any activity is expected to quickly dissipate with loss of heating.

Tuesday...A shortwave trough over the Coastal Bend of TX is progged to lift northward over the Southern Plains/Mississippi Valley area while another shortwave trough lifts northward over the Southern High Plains. This will bring higher probabilities for precipitation to the area as we move through the day on Tuesday and into Tuesday night.

Wed-Saturday...A slow moving mid/upper trough will impact the area late in the week bringing periodic chances for showers and storms to the area through much if not all of the period. We continue to see a high PWAT airmass which may lead to some beneficial rainfall through the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Patchy dense fog was impacting southeast Kansas including the CNU terminal but VFR is expected to return by 13-14Z. Light winds this morning will become southeasterly with some wind gusts around 25 knots developing over central Kansas this afternoon while VFR prevails. Isolated storms developing to our north and west could drift into central Kansas early this evening before dissipating, but confidence remains low to mention in our central KS TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the TAF period will remain at or below 15 knots out of the south and east across the forecast area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ072-096- 100.