textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and tonight over south-central and southeast KS.

- After a brief break, another round of severe storms is possible Friday afternoon and Friday evening, especially for areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

- A strong cold front will usher in drier air and below normal temperatures for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A shortwave trough over the Central Great Basin area late tonight is progged to race eastward emerging from the Central Rockies by this evening. Ahead of this feature, a stationary front was meandering across southeast Kansas. This front is progged to remain nearly stationary or mix northward slowly as we move through the day and is progged to be near the Highway 54 corridor by this evening. Low level mass convergence/moisture advection in the vicinity of the boundary will allow dewpoints to pool with values climbing into the lower/mid 60s over parts of south central and all of southeast Kansas late in the day which will serve to erode the cap by around 22Z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage across south central and southeast Kansas during the early evening hours as the pv anomaly emerges from the Rockies. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates are progged with MLCAPE in the 1000-1500 range poking into southern KS while bulk shear is progged around 40-50 knots. Some storm organization is likely with large hail and damaging winds being the primary severe weather threats. Due to the late timing of the synoptic-scale support, the threat for tornadoes is expected to remain somewhat lower. Record or near record PWATs are progged when looking at all soundings for OUN so efficient rainfall and repeated rounds of heavy rain could lead to some localized flooding concerns, especially in parts of southeast KS. Storm activity should be mostly east of the region by around 08Z with drier more stable air overspreading the area in the wake of the front.

Thu...shortwave ridging is progged to build over the central CONUS on Thu bringing mild and dry weather conditions to the area. Another robust shortwave trough is progged to move into the Rockies Thursday night before emerging over Central Plains on Friday. Parcels in the warm sector appear to remain capped on Friday afternoon but a line of showers and storms is expected to develop along a progressive cold front on Friday afternoon and Friday evening. Deep layer shear vectors are oriented along the frontal zone which is expected to result in a squall line bringing the threat for damaging winds and some large hail. The highest probabilities for showers and storms is expected along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike on Friday evening.

A stable post-frontal regime will build over the area this weekend bringing dry conditions and below normal temperatures. As we move into early next week, another surge of Canadian air is progged to spill southward into the Northern Plains before stalling across Kansas once again. Uncertainty in the location of the boundary remains rather high leading to low confidence in the temperature forecast late Tue. Any intrusion of cold air is expected to be short- lived as the front returns northward late Tue or on Wed.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

The main aviation concerns will be increasing storm chances this evening across south central and southeast Kansas along with increasing low ceilings this morning.

As overnight showers continue to shift east away from the area, widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to expand into central KS but confidence decreases as you move into southern KS including the Wichita TAF.

An approaching storm system will bring increasing thunderstorm chances for south central and southeast KS this evening and tonight. Low ceilings are expected to gradually improve after midnight as the warm front lifts north across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 218 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

A very High fire weather danger may return to parts of central Kansas on Friday and Saturday, but locations in south central and southeast Kansas will see multiple opportunities for wetting rains limiting the fire weather concerns in those areas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.