textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous storms likely across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening.

- Milder temperatures and drier conditions likely for Friday.

- Another round of strong to severe storms possible on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, a large, deep layer trough is residing over the northern plains with several embedded shortwave troughs within a west-east oriented jet over the northern/central plains. The axis of on of these shortwave troughs is located over the northern and central Rockies this morning, and will eject into the central/northern plains later this afternoon and evening. At the surface, a surface cyclone is quickly developing across western Kansas, and it will quickly move northeastward throughout the day. A cold front will sweep across Kansas as this surface low moves into the Missouri River Valley, and it will serve as the focus for numerous thunderstorms later this afternoon and evening. Before storms develop, gusty southerly to southwesterly winds ahead of the frontal boundary are expected this morning and early this afternoon. Gusts across southeast Kansas may be between 35 to 45 mph at times. Additionally, northwest winds behind the front will also be gusty as with 35 to 45 mph wind gusts possible across central Kansas as well. Later this afternoon, short-range guidance continues to show that this cold front will generally be located along a Kansas City to Winfield line by 21-22Z this afternoon. As the front crashes into a very moist and unstable airmass, rapid thunderstorm development is expected by at least 22Z. 4000-4500 J/kg of MLCAPE and effective shear around 30 to 35 knots will support organized storms capable of large hail and damaging winds. The main caveat will be that thunderstorm activity should rapidly grow upscale, and this will significantly limit the hail threat about 1-2 hours after initial thunderstorm development. Lastly, PWATs around 2 inches will support very high rainfall rates with any storm that develops. With how saturated the ground is in southeast Kansas already, these high rainfall rates will likely lead to localized flooding or flash flooding. Fortunately, thunderstorm activity should be quite progressive, and chances for storms should exit southeast Labette County by 03-04Z.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...

The aforementioned front will shunt the deep, rich moisture and hot temperatures south of the forecast area for Friday. Afternoon temperatures will be near average in the mid to upper 80s, and dewpoints in the 40s and 50s will make conditions feel relatively pleasant compared to the past few days. That being said, robust flow aloft moving over the Rockies will support pressure falls across the High Plains which will bring the return of southerly low-level flow and deeper moisture. Short range guidance continues to show not much of anything overnight Friday night into Saturday morning; however, some global models continue to show a fairly decent setup for an overnight MCS across southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Again, the latter outcome has a low chance of occurring, but it's a signal worth monitoring over the next day or two. A more definite return to active weather will be on Saturday as a shortwave trough traverses over the High Plains and central plains during the afternoon and evening hours with a cold front slowly sagging across the region as well. With richer moisture back in place across the state along with the previously mentioned sources for widespread ascent, scattered thunderstorm development is expected Saturday afternoon and evening. Sufficient instability and shear will be in place to support severe weather across a large portion of the region on Saturday, so be sure to stay tuned to the forecast over the next couple of days.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND..

Much cooler air will arrive behind the cold front, and afternoon temperatures on Sunday only rise into the 70s across the area. Temperatures will slowly recover through the beginning of the week, and more summer-like temperatures will likely return as soon as Wednesday. Confidence in the precipitation forecast for Sunday and beyond is low at this time, but trends have been drier for next week. While rain and storm chances haven't been completely removed from the forecast yet, the overall synoptic pattern from model guidance suggests a bit of break for the area for the beginning and middle of next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Gusty southerly to southwesterly winds have already begun this morning as a strong cold front approaches the region. The front should arrive within the next 2-6 hours across central and south-central Kansas, and winds will shift from southwesterly to northwesterly after the frontal passage. Wind speeds will be around 20 knots with gusts around 30-40 knots possible.

Meanwhile, the front will help to trigger scattered thunderstorms across southeast Kansas after 18Z this afternoon. Some of these storms could produce large hail, wind gusts over 50 knots, and very heavy rainfall. Storm chances should end after 03Z.

Tonight through Friday morning, VFR conditions will prevail, and winds will be light and variable across the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.