textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat index values around 105 degrees areawide this afternoon

- Heat index values up to 110 Tuesday afternoon with the highest values across southern KS

- Nocturnal thunderstorm chances return Wednesday night and Thursday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Currently, ridging dominates much of the country with a few shortwaves beginning to dig into the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, a low pressure is centered over Ontario with a cold front draped across the Northern Plains. Mid-level heights continue to increase across the region this afternoon leading to slightly warmer temperatures compared to yesterday. Temperatures today will range from 98-101, with many locations potentially seeing their first 100 degree reading of the year. A relatively moist airmass remains over the area with 1.50-1.75" PWATs extending across the eastern half of the state this afternoon leading to dewpoints in the lower 70s. Heat indices for much of the forecast area have already exceeded 100 degrees, and the Heat Advisory remains in effect till 9pm this evening with heat index values around 105 degrees expected areawide.

Moving into Tuesday, the trough currently situated over the Canadian Prairies will dig into the Great Lakes region. This will drag the cold frontal boundary south across the Central Plains through the morning hours on Tuesday, shunting the ridge axis further south and west. Winds will begin turning out of the north for out central Kansas counties around 12Z. The front will traverse the entire forecast area by 18Z with northeasterly winds expected areawide. Cooler and drier air will lag behind the frontal boundary, with afternoon highs still managing to reach into the mid 90s for central Kansas locations and between 100-104 for our far southern counties. Dewpoints for the southern half of the forecast area will still reach into the 70s for much of the afternoon, leading to dangerously high heat indices ranging from 105 to around 110 degrees. An Extreme Heat Warning has been issued for southern and southeast Kansas from 12-8pm on Tuesday and a Heat Advisory has been issued for portions of south-central and southeast Kansas.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the forecast area will remain on the northeast edge of the ridge with the ridge axis extending from the Southern Plains northwestward into the Northern Rockies. Temperatures for mid week will top out near normal with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Drier air behind the front will also make things feel more comfortable as dewpoints in the upper 50s to lower 60s are anticipated. A shortwave trough will begin to dig into the High Plains on Wednesday, traversing the Central Plains on Thursday into Thursday night. This feature, along with a strengthening LLJ each night, will support rain and storm chances Wed. and Thu. nights from northern into eastern Kansas.

The ridge will begin to build back over the region on Friday, with increasing mid-level heights through Saturday. The ridge axis looks to be situated just to our west for Sunday. Temperatures for Friday through the end of the forecast period look to gradually increase each day, with 100s possible again by the end of next weekend. With the ridge nearly overhead for the end of the forecast time frame, negligible rain chances and mostly clear skies are expected to return.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Currently, surface winds are generally around 5 to 10 knots out of the south across the area. A front will arrive Tuesday morning causing winds to shift to northeasterly and increase to around 10 to 15 knots across the area. Gusts around 20 to 25 knots will be possible Tuesday afternoon across mainly portions of central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ067>072-082- 083. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ091>096-098>100.