textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly dry conditions are expected through Wednesday with rain chances increasing Thursday morning through Saturday. Severe weather is not anticipated.

- Near normal temperatures are expected through Friday with warmer temperatures returning this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 304 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley. At the surface, expansive high pressure sits over the Great Lakes and extends into the Northern Plains. As we move into tonight, drizzle is possible to develop mainly in northern to central KS where weak CAA is expected to be. Chances are low (around 15%) with these chances continuing into Tuesday morning. For Tuesday, cloud cover is expected to dissipate into the afternoon with high temperatures near normal in the mid to upper 70s across the area. Mostly dry conditions are expected for Tuesday into Wednesday as the surface high pressure expands into the Central Plains. There is another slight chance for rain mainly in north central KS on Wednesday morning, though most of the area will remain dry. Highs for Wednesday afternoon are forecast around 80 across our area.

As we move into late Wednesday night, an upper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern/Central Plains. This will increase rain chances over western Kansas Thursday morning with activity anticipated to move east into our area during the day Thursday as southerly flow advects better moisture into Kansas. Showers and weak thunderstorms are forecast with this activity as most guidance keeps instability values under 500 J/kg with weak wind shear. Periodic rain chances are possible from Thursday night through Saturday as additional shortwaves eject out from the Rockies and slide across the region. Warmer temperatures are progged to return this weekend as above normal 850 mb temperatures are expected. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 80s for Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 559 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and some fog early Tue morning.

Mostly clear skies will remain in place through much of the evening hours with light northeast winds also remaining. There is good model agreement that some low clouds and fog will develop generally after 09z. This will be the result of some radiational cooling along with persistent upslope flow. Feel confident enough at this point to run with IFR levels, with highest confidence for KRSL-KGBD-KHUT. Wouldn't be surprised if KICT sees more BR in the 2-4sm range than low clouds, and will be something to monitor. For now will start to lift low cigs and fog out in the 16-17z range.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.