textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Brief warm-up on Tuesday followed by near normal temperatures for the rest of the work week.

- Slight rain chances are possible Tuesday night with better rain chances across the area expected Wednesday night. Severe weather is possible with this activity.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

An upper ridge is currently building into the western CONUS as an upper trough digs across Manitoba and Ontario, shifting flow aloft over our area back to northwesterly. Surface high pressure sits across the Middle Mississippi Valley into eastern Kansas and Oklahoma. Lingering cloud cover remains over southeast KS into portions of south-central KS with high temperatures in the 80s across the area. As we move into tonight, low temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to near 70. Confidence has increased for our forecast area to remain mostly dry tonight as recent model guidance suggests storm chances staying well north and northeast of the area as the LLJ ramps up with the nose of the jet positioning itself into Nebraska.

For Tuesday, southerly winds will increase from the deepening low over western KS combined with above normal 850 mb temperatures, warmer temperatures are likely to return for Tuesday afternoon. Highs are expected to rise back into the low 100s across the area. The warmest heat indices are expected in south-central KS to along the KS/OK border with values greater than 105 degrees. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon through the early evening. A cold front is progged to push south through Nebraska during the day on Tuesday, likely ending up near the KS/NE border by Tuesday night. Storms are likely to develop in northern KS from 850-700 mb WAA and move towards central MO though there is uncertainty with the position of the 850 mb front. Its possible for storms to clip central KS Tuesday night so have maintained 20-30% PoPs. Severe storms with this activity is also possible with the main threats being damaging winds and large hail as plenty of instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, effective shear greater than 40 kts, and DCAPE values over 1400 J/kg are forecast. Trends with this activity will continue to be monitored.

By Wednesday, model guidance progs the frontal boundary to have pushed south through most of Kansas with the front expected to be in southern Kansas by Wednesday morning. This will make Tuesdays warmer temperatures short-lived as highs range from the mid 80s in central KS to the upper 90s in southern KS on Wednesday afternoon. Better rain chances across the area are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger shortwave trough slides across the region, though there is uncertainty with timing and positioning of storms, so trends will continue to be monitored, but strong to severe storms appear likely with this activity. For Thursday and beyond, mostly dry conditions are expected. Near normal temperatures for this time of year appear likely on both Thursday and Friday afternoon with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the upper 60s. As we move into the weekend, the upper ridge will strengthen, allowing warmer temperatures to return back to the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1237 PM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

VFR conditions expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

VFR cigs should gradually exit southern and southeast Kansas this afternoon, and mostly clear skies should dominate the region this evening through Tuesday morning. Surface winds are generally under 10 knots and variable this afternoon. Winds should gradually shift to southerly or southeasterly this evening into tonight, then winds should increase to around 10 to 15 knots Tuesday morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ067-068-082- 083-091>093-096-098>100.