textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers with some embedded storms will be most numerous late this afternoon and evening with scattered showers lingering through the night and more widely scattered activity on Saturday.

- Another round of showers and storms will affect the region for late Sunday night through Tuesday.

- A few strong or severe storms may impact the area on Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Patchy fog lingers across the area early this afternoon while numerous showers were lifting north out of Oklahoma as a shortwave trough ejects from the Southern Plains. Water vapor imagery shows a large expansive moist plume extending downstream from this approaching shortwave trough over the Central Plains with PWATs around 1.4 inches which is above the 90th percentile for late Oct across the area. Showers with some embedded thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening are expected to decrease in coverage as we move through the overnight hours while some scattered activity may linger over the area in the day on Saturday before the trough axis lifts north and east of the area late in the day. We could see some low ceilings and fog redevelop tonight if coverage of shower activity diminishes given a very moist pbl.

Shortwave ridging is still expected to arrive over the area on Sunday providing a break in the action before another more robust positively tilted trough builds into the Rockies late in the day. This next feature will begin to emerge across the area on Monday with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late Sunday night as the robust LLJ transports moisture northward. More widespread shower and storm activity early in the period on Mon could minimize the threat for more organized activity later in the day, but confidence in the details remains rather low at this time. If the overnight/early morning activity is less robust, we could see a window for strong/severe storms during the day on Monday along a southeastward advancing cold front. Some post frontal precipitation may linger across the area Monday night into Tuesday as the mid/upper trough translates slowly eastward across the area. By Tuesday evening/Tuesday night, showers are expected to diminish from west to east with increasing large-scale forcing for subsidence in the wake of the system.

A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated as we move into Wed-Thu with seasonably mild temperatures expected to linger through the end of the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 629 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

Main aviation concerns will be rain showers along with some lower ceilings.

Upper impulse is lifting into western OK with large area of 850-700mb moisture transport and upper diffluence resulting in a widespread area of light showers lifting across southern KS. Current thinking is that vis will be lowered to around 5sm once the area of showers move in. Most locations will continue to see VFR cigs overnight, with the exception of areas west of I-135, where some MVFR levels will be mixed-in. Larger area of showers is expected to lift out of the forecast area around or a couple hours before sunrise, with some iso-sct showers remaining on Sat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.