textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and humid conditions will linger over the area through Saturday.

- Increasing chances for showers and storms will arrive as we move into the weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures will arrive as we move into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

We continue to see a 600 dam H5 ridge slowly retrograding across the Lower Mississippi Valley area towards the Southern Plains keeping hot and mostly subsident airmass over the area through the remainder of the work week. This feature represents an extreme event given NAEFS standardized anomalies of 3-4. This will keep our area well above average for late Sept as we move into the beginning of the weekend. Meanwhile, a robust mid/upper trough over the Pacific Northwest is progged to move across the Northern Intermountain Region on Friday before arriving over the Central and Northern Rockies as we move into Saturday. A lead shortwave trough is progged to race eastward across the Central/Northern Plains helping to drive a cold front southward across the Central High Plains on Saturday. This front is expected to arrive in our forecast area by late afternoon or early evening providing a focus for showers and thunderstorms. A line of thunderstorms appears most likely although other more isolated activity could develop along the dryline late in the day or during the evening hours. Some severe storms may develop given steepening mid-lvl lapse rates, moderate CAPE and deep layer shear in excess of 30 knots. Showers and thunderstorms may linger in the post-frontal airmass with a continued threat for severe storms Saturday night. The threat for strong or severe storms may move south of the area as we move into Sunday as a more stable post-frontal airmass arrives.

Mon-Thu...a stable post-frontal regime will build across the area as we move into early next week with seasonable temperatures expected. Another shortwave trough may impact the area in the Wed- Thu timeframe bringing increasing probabilities for showers and storms.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail at all sites over the next 24 hours. South winds are expected at all sites with breezy to windy conditions arriving late Friday morning, especially across central KS. Gusts to 30 kts are anticipated at RSL/GBD, while gusts closer to 25 kts are forecast across south central KS. BKN clouds at 20 kft over the area Friday morning will dissipate by afternoon, so aside from wind, impacts should be minimal for this forecast cycle.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.