textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain chances continue in central KS through the evening.

- Additional rain chances Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Mild temperatures through Monday, then a cooldown arrives on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a mid-level shortwave progressing through the Central Plains as a second mid/upper wave sits over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, low pressure is centered over eastern Kansas with the associated warm front spanning east toward the Ohio River Valley. Isentropic ascent associated with this boundary has allowed for continued showers and stratiform rain across north central and northeast Kansas as trailing precipitation in the deformation zone lingers across portions of west and northwest Kansas. Additionally, the cold front associated with this system has brought relatively cool air to the western half of the forecast area so far today.

PRECIPITATION:

Chances for light rain and drizzle will look to continue across central Kansas through the evening and overnight hours as the surface low continues tracking to the east. Still thinking this will largely be confined to areas along and north of I-70, with additional accumulations remaining minimal (less than 0.10") per model consensus.

Dry weather is expected to resume for most of the weekend following the departure of today's system. Model consensus then highlights the arrival of another mid/upper shortwave Sunday evening that will likely bring additional chances (60-80%) for rainfall through Monday evening. The track of the best forcing for this system remains a bit uncertain at this time, with models now carrying higher rainfall amounts to the northwest and southeast of the forecast area. As such, it still appears that southeast Kansas will see the highest amounts with totals decreasing to the west. Guidance continues to suggest that this upcoming system will bring lower totals than today's, though uncertainty remains regarding exact ranges at this time.

Dry conditions will return to the area by Tuesday with the arrival of northwest flow aloft. The quiet pattern is progged to hold in place through the rest of the week.

TEMPERATURES:

Mild temperatures are forecast into the start of next week with highs near 60 and lows in the 30s and 40s. The arrival of a cold front on Tuesday will bring a modest cooldown to the area, with highs near 50 and lows around freezing anticipated to prevail through the end of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 455 PM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Low clouds in IFR category with occasional drizzle reducing visibility will affect central and south central into the overnight hours. Conditions will gradually improve from west to east into the morning hours on Saturday with low clouds gradually eroding.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.