textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms are possible this afternoon and evening in central Kansas.

- Strong and severe storms will remain in the forecast for Friday through early next week.

- Monday and Tuesday may pose the greatest threat for severe storms with all modes of severe weather possible as a vigorous storm system approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A frontal boundary was bisecting Kansas early this morning stretching from portions of southwest Kansas north and east to around KHYS/KRSL to KCNK to KSTJ. This boundary may lift northward into southern Nebraska as we move through the day today. The better signal for early morning shower and storm activity may remain just northeast of our area where the better mid-lvl waa is progged across the H7 baroclinic zone and pops were lowered slightly through the morning hours over central KS. We could see a break in the action during the late morning or early afternoon hours, but a more subtle warm frontal segment in central KS could become a focus for showers and storms when the cap weakens across central KS around 20Z. The frontal boundary will be forced southward as we move into the evening hours as a shortwave trough propagates over the Northern Plains. The nocturnal LLJ is progged to ramp up early in the evening while nosing into central KS leading to more widespread coverage of showers and storms along the I-70 corridor where we could see a cluster of severe storms with large hail and damaging winds. The activity may become more elevated as we move into the evening and overnight hours as it builds slowly southward while waning late as the LLJ veers during the early morning hours.

Uncertainty on Friday is moderate given the stationary frontal boundary bisecting the forecast area. This boundary is expected to lie across southern KS where the best chance for storms is expected along and south of Hwy 50. But, as the previous shift noted, storm coverage on Friday will hinge on the position of the frontal boundary which may change. Regardless of the position, diurnal heating and increasing low-lvl convergence within the frontal zone should result in scattered thunderstorm development as we move into the afternoon/early evening timeframe. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates/MLCAPE around 1500 J/KG and 30 knots of deep-layer shear will support some storm organization with large hail and damging winds being the main threats. Shortwave ridging is progged to arrive late in the period while lingering into early Sat.

The frontal boundary over southern KS is progged to become diffuse late Friday night into Sat as it lifts northward while we shortwave ridging building over the central CONUS early on Sat. Another shortwave trough lifting out of the mean larger-scale trough over the Southwest could initiate a few storms late on Sat as we are progged to remain weakly capped but the dryline is diffuse and confidence remains fairly low during the daytime hours. Better chances for showers and storms may arrive Sat evening and Sat night, especially over southeast KS. Confidence in strong/severe storms remains somewhat low during this period.

Sun-Tue...multiple rounds of severe thunderstorms are still possible during this timeframe while Monday and Tuesday may pose the greatest threat for diurnally driven supercell thunderstorms capable of producing all modes of severe weather possible as the vigorous mid/upper trough emerges from the Rockies. Above normal temperatures will prevail through the period with highs in the 70s/80s as we remain firmly entrenched in the warm sector.

The upper storm system is progged to begin to depart the area toward the middle of the week giving us a break in the action although some low pops were maintained in eastern Kansas. Seasonably mild temperatures are anticipated toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1043 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Later tonight and into Thursday morning, hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms are expected to redevelop over mainly central Kansas (likely north of ICT), as 850-700mb warm advection increases. Small hail and brief heavy rain will be the primary concerns with this activity.

Otherwise, with the frontal zone lifting back north, stout and gusty south winds will commence by mid-late morning Thursday areawide, with gusts upwards of 30-35 kts probable.

By late Thursday afternoon or early evening, additional thunderstorms are possible in the vicinity of the stalled frontal zone. Thinking RSL, GBD, and SLN have the greatest potential to experience this activity after 23-00z or so. A handful of storms will be capable of quarter size hail and 60 mph winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

A very high grassland fire danger will affect locations mainly along and northwest of the Kansas Turnpike this afternoon. Periodic showers and storms and continued green up may gradually begin to reduce the fire weather risk over the upcoming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.