textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures for Wednesday through Saturday, with a cold front expected to move through Sunday morning. A few max temp records will be possible for Fri-Sat.

- Precipitation will remain out of the forecast through the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows a vigorous trough continuing to progress eastward across the eastern CONUS along with a large upper ridge centered over the southern California coastline. The latter feature will continue to build and gradually translate eastward, and this ridge will be the primary feature driving the region's weather over the next 3-5 days. For today, stout northwest flow over the Rockies is promoting surface pressure falls across the High Plains which is supporting breezy southerly winds this afternoon. A subtle perturbation embedded within the aforementioned northwest flow aloft will potentially support a few showers across northeast Kansas this evening, and a shower or two cannot be ruled out across southeast Kansas this evening as well.

As the upper ridge continues to build across the Desert Southwest throughout the week, it's influence will be felt across the central plains with an increase in temperatures expected through the rest of the week. This gradual warming trend is likely despite a series of weak frontal boundaries which will cause surface winds to periodically shift back and forth between southerly and northerly through the end of the work week. Despite the dry and warmer conditions, wind speeds will be on the lighter side lowering potential fire weather concerns through at least Thursday or Friday. The upper ridge is forecast to break down this weekend, but another very warm day is anticipated for Saturday. A deeper surface low is anticipated to develop across the High Plains on Saturday in response to stronger zonal flow over the Rockies. As a result, a tighter pressure gradient will develop across the region, and breezy southwest winds are anticipated to overspread much of western and central Kansas. This along with near record high temperatures (upper 80s to 90s!) and very dry conditions will support very high grassland fire danger Saturday afternoon. Models tend to under do winds at this time frame, so it's possible winds Saturday afternoon could be a little higher than currently forecast. A more powerful cold front is set to arrive on Sunday which will bring a cooler airmass into the region. However, Sunday's temperatures are still expected to be on the warm side. Despite slightly less dry conditions than on Saturday, windy conditions behind the front will drive another day of very high grassland fire danger across much of the forecast area during the afternoon hours. Low-level CAA should persist Sunday night and through Monday which will knock temperatures down closer to average for this time of year.

Looking beyond the forecast period, the overall pattern appears unfavorable for any precipitation over the next 8-14 days. Many locations will likely have to wait until the latter part of the month before meaningful moisture returns. With persistent dry, warm, and breezy conditions, fire weather concerns may be on the heading into the middle portions of next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 626 PM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Southerly winds around 10 knots will diminish and turn northwesterly for central and south-central Kansas sites overnight. Winds will remain under 10 knots and out of the northwest through the daytime hours, turning southwesterly towards the end of the period. For CNU, gusty southerly winds will persist overnight with gusts between 15 to 20 knots. A period of LLWS is expected for southeast Kansas between 03-12Z, after which winds will diminish below 10 knots and gradually turn out of the northwest by 18Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Very warm temperatures and low RH's values will bring very high fire danger on Saturday across mainly central KS. Stronger winds will then allow very high fire danger to overspread the entire area for Sunday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.