textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily rain and storm chances over the next week

- A few severe thunderstorms are possible this evening and again on Saturday afternoon/evening

- Slightly above normal temperatures over the next week with highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Currently, the cutoff low is being lifted over the Rockies by a trough off the Pacific Coast with upper level southwesterly flow over the Plains. A shortwave trough remains extended across the Central Plains, leading to cloud cover and a few spotty showers moving northeast over the area this morning. At the surface, a weak low pressure is situated over the High Plains. The shortwave and corresponding surface low will lift a weak frontal boundary/dryline from the Panhandles into the central portions of the state by this evening. This will be the focus of potential storm development for this afternoon/evening. Sufficient instability and decent 0-3km shear will support a few stronger to marginally severe storms that will develop initially to our southwest this afternoon and then move into the forecast area by this evening. Currently have POPs increasing for our western counties beginning at 00Z. The strongest storms will be capable of baseline severe threats with 60 mph gusts and quarter size hail, primarily for our south-central into central Kansas counties. Activity will remain progressive, and severity will diminish between 03-06Z, but spotty showers and isolated thunderstorms will remain possible for much of the area through the early morning hours.

As we move into Saturday, a few showers and thunderstorms will linger across eastern Kansas in the morning hours. By Saturday afternoon, the western trough will push into the High Plains and the surface low will linger in the lee of the Rockies, pushing a sharpening dryline from western into central Kansas during the afternoon into evening hours. Ample instability (3500-4000 J/kg MLCAPE) and deep shear (30 kts) will make the most of a relatively uncapped environment leading to another day of potential severe development. Strong winds and large hail would be the primary threats with the strongest storms, though a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out. Initial discrete cells will merge into a broken line that will quickly move northeast across the area, with storms shifting out of the area by 06Z.

As the upper level and lee surface trough slowly move over the High Plains into Sunday morning, a few widely scattered showers could linger, especially over northern and eastern portions of the forecast area through the morning hours. Then for Sunday afternoon and into early next week, a mid/upper level ridge will begin to build in over the region. This will lead to not only increasing temps (upper 80s, lower 90s), but also a less supportive environment for more potent convection due to subsidence. But given the buoyant lower-level airmass, some diurnally driven showers and storms could develop each afternoon/evening. Confidence remains low on exact location and intensity of any convection for Sunday afternoon through Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

After an IFR start to the day expecting continued improvement to VFR for all sites by early afternoon and for the remainder of the period. Storms will develop well west of the area late this afternoon and move east as the evening unfolds. If these storms can hold together they may impact the area by 00z tonight so have included VCTS to indicate this. Winds should remain fairly light and southerly.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.