textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers and storms likely today. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible, but the main concern will be locally heavy rainfall which may lead to additional flooding issues.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Friday morning could present a heavy rain and flooding threat. Strong to severe storms will also be possible each night.

- Much warmer conditions this weekend. Heat and humidity could present some concerns during the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 129 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...

Late this morning into early this afternoon, widespread convection across western Kansas was significantly limiting the eastward expansion of instability across the region. While much of this activity has decreased in intensity compared to earlier this morning, continued festering of showers and storms across western Kansas appears likely based on strong and persistent mid-level WAA. Unfortunately, 12Z short term guidance was less than helpful, and despite most of the solutions showing a strengthening MCS along and west of I-135, that currently appears less likely to occur. However, SPC mesoanalysis suggests elevated instability is increasing across central and south- central Kansas early this afternoon. A complex of showers and storms across far southwest Nebraska/far northwest Kansas may try to tap into this elevated instability and become more organized as it continues south and southeastward. At this moment, the odds of these storms becoming surface based appear very low, but if this activity becomes organized enough, a marginal large hail and damaging wind threat is still possible along and west of I-135 late this afternoon through tonight. Also, additional rainfall across the area could present another round of localized flooding or flash flooding, particularly across portions of southern Kansas where river flooding has already been fairly impactful.

Aside from the potential severe weather later today, isolated showers and storms have developed across portions of southern and southeast Kansas early this afternoon. While the environment is not really conducive for severe weather, locally heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and lightning strikes will be concerns for anything that develops ahead of the aforementioned complex of storms.

Rain chances will be on the decrease late tonight as all of this activity gradually shifts into Oklahoma. However, additional thunderstorm development is possible early Wednesday morning as strong mid-level WAA overspreads southwestern and southern Kansas. It's a little unclear exactly where these storms will develop, but any location that does see thunderstorms early Wednesday morning can expect heavy rainfall and possible flooding/flash flooding. The activity early Wednesday morning should slowly move southward into Oklahoma, and a brief break in precipitation is anticipated heading into Wednesday afternoon.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

While the pattern remains conducive for active weather, stable air should prevent thunderstorm development for much of Wednesday afternoon and evening across the forecast area. However, scattered thunderstorm development is once again forecast across the High Plains Wednesday evening and night. It's likely this activity will congeal into an organized MCS late Wednesday night as it begins trek across Kansas. Much of the forecast area may be dealing with widespread thunderstorms early Thursday morning as this MCS pushes east/southeastward. With that being said, the severe potential late Wednesday night into Thursday morning is in question. Trends in the guidance suggest destabilization across much of the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning will be slow to occur. For example, the latest RRFS only shows about 1000-1500 J/kg of MUCAPE early Thursday morning across southern Kansas. However, if the MCS is organized enough, it would be enough to maintain at least a marginal severe wind threat Thursday morning across southern Kansas. All that being said, the biggest concern will likely be limited to flooding as additional heavy rainfall over already very saturated ground will exacerbate ongoing flooding issues.

It's highly likely that Thursday morning's convection will significantly disrupt the rest of the forecast for Thursday afternoon into early Friday. However, if that does not occur, or the atmosphere can rapidly recover by Thursday afternoon, another round of strong to severe storms will be possible Thursday evening into Friday morning. Another shortwave trough will traverse over the Rockies and into the High Plains Thursday afternoon and trigger yet another round of storms across the High Plains. In addition, a weak surface trough is forecast to develop across the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles with a warm front draped across southern and southeast Kansas. Given convergence along the frontal boundary, an uncapped environment, and subtle synoptic ascent ahead of the advancing shortwave, a few strong to severe storms will be possible along the warm front late Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening across southern and southeast Kansas. While low-level shear is actually quite good (around 300 m2/s2 of 0-3km SRH), shear above 3km is fairly negligible. So while supercells are possible initially, storm mode could get quite messy with time. Meanwhile, the aforementioned High Plains storms will likely congeal into an MCS and track across southern Kansas along the instability gradient delineated by the warm front Thursday evening through Friday morning. Regardless of the evolution of all of this activity, PWATs above 1.8" will support very heavy rainfall across the area, and additional flooding and flash flooding may be possible Thursday afternoon into Friday morning.

THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT WEEK...

Heading into the weekend, much of the persistent upper flow that has been driving this very active stretch is forecast to shift northward as a broad upper ridge builds across the southern and southeast CONUS. Guidance this far out is likely a little on the hot side in regards to temperatures, especially given how much residual moisture will likely linger from all of the rainfall across the area. That being said, even afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s could present heat concerns if dewpoints are high enough across the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Clouds and MVFR ceilings have started to dissipate across central and south-central KS. Showers will start to diminish at CNU by 02z. VFR conditions are expected through 07z with ceilings potentially dropping to MVFR during the overnight hours. At this time, additional thunderstorm chances have decreased for tonight with the next round of storms possible between 08z to 12z. Given uncertainty with storm coverage and impacts to terminal sites, decided to continue the PROB30 at all sites. Outside of storm potential, winds will remain light and variable through this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.