textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Extreme heat will continue through at least Friday and possibly Saturday for at least southern Kansas.
- Slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday into Monday with readings still be above average.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
The persistent mid/upper ridge may finally shift eastward slightly as we move through the next 24 hours. We expect another deeply mixed pbl with little inhibition and we could see isolated storms develop along a subtle convergence zone within the sfc trough axis stretching across parts of central and south central KS during the late afternoon and evening hours on Thursday. Any high-based storm may bring a threat of damaging winds and perhaps some dry lighting, but confidence in storm coverage remains low. Other elevated storms may develop during the evening hours as the LLJ ramps up across parts of central and south central Kansas. Confidence in max temperatures remains fairly low given the uncertainry in how far south the diffuse boundary makes it.
As we move into Friday-Saturday, we continue to see uncertainty with the frontal boundary position which may be forced further south depending on the amount of deep moist convection. Isolated storms along the sfc trough axis will continue to be possible each day and lingering cloud debris could have an impact on high temperatures through the period. Low pops were maintained with a continuation of triple digit heat through the period.
Sunday-Wednesday...A shortwave trough is progged to sweep across the Northern Plains late in the weekend helping to drive a cold front south across the Central Plains. This front may become a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday-Sunday night with mostly dry and seasonable temperatures returning across the region on Monday.
The mid/upper ridge is progged to amplify across the Southern Plains as we move towards the middle of the week bringing rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures back to the area. Some low pops were maintained but confidence in wetting precipitation remains rather low at this time.
AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed Aug 12 2026
Gusty southwest winds and VFR will prevail this afternoon and tonight. Winds will diminish this evening and may pick up again around midnight as the LLJ picks up. An isolated and transient shower or storm may develop tonight but confidence remains too low to mention at this time.
CLIMATE
Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Aug 12 2026
------------------- Thursday August 13 -------------------
Location Forecast High Record High ------------------------------------------------ Wichita 106 110-1936 Salina 108 118-1936 Chanute 104 109-1936 Russell 107 104-1978
------------------- Friday August 14 -------------------
Location Forecast High Record High ------------------------------------------------ Wichita 102 110-1936 Salina 101 110-1936 Chanute 102 110-1936 Russell 100 106-1952
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.
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