textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances Sunday evening and continuing into Monday.

- Slightly cooler temperatures to arrive on Monday and persist through much of next week.

- Additional low chances for isolated to scattered showers through next week as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

A fairly amplified pattern remains over the Lower 48 this afternoon with deep troughing over the western CONUS and strong mid/upper ridging over the central CONUS. Increased meridional flow over the Rockies is promoting gradual pressure falls across the Front Range and High Plains leading to an increased pressure gradient across the central plains. As a result, southerly low level flow has increased, and many are experiencing a breezy day today with sustained winds around 10 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 to 35 mph at times, especially across central Kansas. While winds will decrease tonight, low-level flow will remain southerly, and lows will only dip into the mid 50s to low 60s as a result. A weak frontal boundary will sag into Kansas on Saturday; however, much of the moisture and broad ascent associated with the incoming trough will be out over eastern Colorado and western Kansas. While, a stray shower cannot be ruled out as far east as US-281, most of the activity should remain well to the west throughout the day. That being said, increased cloud cover should keep afternoon highs in the 70s on Saturday.

Short range guidance indicates a couple of embedded vort maxes will round the based of the aforementioned mid/upper trough and move out over the High Plains both Sunday and Monday. This increased synoptic ascent along with increasing amounts of moisture being pulled northward from the eastern Pacific will support widespread showers across western, central, and portions of south-central Kansas Sunday and Monday. The heaviest rainfall will primarily be across western Kansas, but rainfall totals up to 0.25" are still possible across portions of central Kansas. Farther south and east, coverage of showers is forecast to drop off quite a bit, and rainfall totals across the Flint Hills and south-central Kansas will likely remain below 0.10" through Monday. Meanwhile, a cold front will slowly sag across the region bringing a slightly cooler airmass to the area. While highs on Sunday will remain in the mid to upper 70s, highs on Monday will be slightly cooler with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s.

TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND...

Mid to long range guidance continues to show some marginal opportunities at isolated to scattered showers through the remainder of next week. A couple of weak frontal passages may be enough to trigger some showers early Wednesday, and again late Thursday or early Friday. Regardless, coverage of shower activity will be limited, and meaningful rainfall appears unlikely. Temperatures will continue to remain near average through the middle to latter portions of next week. Long range guidance continues to signal the potential for a rather vigorous system moving into the southern and central plains Halloween Weekend. It's still way too early to get into the finer details, but at this moment, there's an increased likelihood of widespread rainfall heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24hrs with only some high clouds floating overhead. Winds will remain out of the south and increase a bit for the late morning and afternoon hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.