textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions expected through Tuesday. Heat indices between 105 and 115 possible each afternoon and early evening.

- Periodic storm chances return early Tuesday morning and continue through the end of next week. Best chances will be during the overnight hours each night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis continues to show a large and strong mid/upper ridge across the southern/central Rockies and into the southern/central plains. The bottom line: this persistent pattern continues to be very supportive of hot conditions across the central plains. This afternoon will be much like yesterday with 500 mb heights and 850 mb temperatures above the 95th percentile supporting afternoon surface temperatures in the 100s across nearly the entire forecast area. While dewpoints will be lower than yesterday, they will likely remain in the mid 60s to low 70s. These conditions will support heat indices up to 110 across the forecast area, and it's possible heat indices could out perform what is currently forecast (much like yesterday). That being said, boundary layer mixing could be more intense than forecast for locations west of I-135 which would lead to dewpoints in the lower 60s. However, should this drier solution pan out, air temperatures will likely be a tad hotter than currently forecast, which would still lead to heat indices approaching 110 across these locations. Regardless of the finer details, it will be hot (yes, even for summer), and those sensitive to heat will need to take the proper precautions if spending time outside this afternoon and early evening. Heat stress will continue even into the nighttime hours with lows struggling to fall below 80 degrees overnight.

The pattern is not expected to change much for Monday with the aforementioned strong upper anti-cyclone and very warm mid-level temperatures supporting hot surface air temperatures during the afternoon and early evening hours. Mid-range guidance continues to suggest that deep mixing, mostly due to breezy south-southwest winds, during the afternoon hours will likely lead to drier conditions on Monday; however, this will also lead to hotter afternoon highs. That being said, even if afternoon highs are around 105, dewpoints in the low 60s won't drive heat indices much higher than that, so a heat advisory has been maintained (no upgrade to a warning) despite the forecast calling for hotter afternoon temperatures than yesterday and today.

The forecast beyond Monday evening/night begins to become a little more uncertain as the aforementioned upper ridge begins to break down and shift westward, and a weak cold front slowly sags southward into Kansas overnight Monday into Tuesday morning. A complex of storms is likely to develop across the northern High Plains and progress eastward into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska during the overnight hours. Currently, rain chances are limited to north of I-70 early Tuesday morning given that very warm mid-level temperatures will likely be detrimental to the maintenance of convection south of I-70. With that being said, it is 2026, and the trend this year has been for convection to overperform model guidance. Therefore, trends will need to be monitored over the next 36-48 hours.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

Assuming that convection Monday night into Tuesday morning behaves as currently forecast, another hot day is likely on Tuesday, especially across southern and southeast Kansas. Lighter surface winds out of the east/southeast Tuesday afternoon is likely to prevent deep mixing of the boundary layer, thus dewpoints will likely a tad higher. Despite afternoon highs forecast to be slightly "cooler," heat indices should still exceed 105 across southern and southeast Kansas Tuesday afternoon and evening. With the primary ridge axis shifting westwards towards the Four Corners region, the mid-level baroclinic zone is forecast to be draped over Kansas late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Model guidance suggest widely scattered showers and storms are possible along this feature early Wednesday morning with some activity possibly lingering across far eastern Kansas well into Wednesday afternoon. Assuming coverage and timing of potential convection ends up as currently forecast, the area will continue to feel the influence of the ridge out west with highs rising into the mid to upper 90s Wednesday afternoon. Beyond this point, details become a little less clear. However, in general, mid-range model guidance suggests a pattern supportive of periodic storm chances through the remainder of the week with a parade of shortwave troughs embedded in weak northwest flow sweeping over the region. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity at this time, but stay tuned for updates over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

VFR conditions expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

The only aviation hazard will be breezy south winds this afternoon through early evening, as lee troughing remains anchored over the High Plains.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032- 033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.