textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A very isolated thunderstorm possible later this afternoon and evening over portions of central and eastern Kansas.

- Dry weather tonight through Tuesday night.

- Increasing chances for off-and-on thunderstorms late Wednesday through Friday night or Saturday.

- A gradual warming trend through mid-late week.

- Potential for an extended period of hot and dry weather late next weekend through the following week (July 12th or 13th and beyond).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

FOG:

EARLY THIS MORNING...High pressure settling south, light winds, and clearing skies should support patchy fog early this morning, mainly north of Highway 54/400 before about 9 AM. Better chances for widespread dense fog will be further north and east over northeast KS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...An upper trough dropping southeast across the region along with somewhat cooler temperatures aloft may support an isolated thunderstorm later this afternoon into the evening, mainly along and east of I-135/Highway 81. A few CAM solutions indicate this isolated activity. However, model soundings remain fairly capped to surface-based parcels, so kept the forecast dry for now. If an isolated storm can form, marginally severe weather is possible.

TONIGHT--TUESDAY NIGHT...Building upper ridging should support mostly dry weather across the forecast area tonight through at least Tuesday night.

WEDNESDAY--SATURDAY...As we head into mid-late week, the upper ridge is expected to flatten some as a few shortwaves traverse the western and central CONUS. This should allow a frontal zone to ooze south into Mid-America, setting the stage for off-and-on thunderstorm chances across the region late Wednesday through roughly Friday night or Saturday. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Seasonable temperatures through Monday will give way to a warming trend Tuesday through Wednesday or Thursday, with daytime highs climbing into the mid-upper 90s, and afternoon through early evening heat indices up to around 105 degrees, highest over southern and southeast KS. A frontal boundary draped across the region will probably support a slight cool down late week into the weekend.

As we take a look ahead to the week of July 13th, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a rather anomalous upper ridge building across the central and western CONUS, which would support a prolonged period of hot and dry weather.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Patchy MVFR to IFR conditions in low clouds and low visibilities will impact the region through about 14z this morning. Covered this threat with a 2 hour TEMPO group from 12-14z at each TAF site. Thereafter, quiet VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.