textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms in southeast KS this afternoon with seasonably warm temperatures through Friday.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend and lasting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Ridging continues to dominate the CONUS with the upper level high extending from the Northern Plains into the Ohio Valley. A couple of shortwaves are traversing Canada with the most prominent trough digging across the Northeast US. At the surface, a broad and weak high pressure sits across much of the eastern US. Surface obs across south-central and southeastern Kansas indicate the return of Gulf moisture over the area with 70 degree Tds. The moisture advection on Wednesday was able to produce scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across the southeast quadrant of the state.

For today, temperatures will remain near normal in the lower 90s as the anomalous heights remain to our north for now. Gulf moisture will continue to lift across the Mississippi Valley and eastern portions of the Central Plains with southeasterly upper level flow. PWATs will be able to maintain in then 1.75-2 inch range across eastern portions of the state. MUCAPE values across the area will reach between 2000-2500 J/kg each afternoon. This combination will once again support isolated, diurnally driven showers and storms in southeastern Kansas. It continues to remain unlikely that we would see much in terms of severe weather as shear appears negligible, but we could see briefly heavy rainfall and gusty winds with the strongest activity.

For Friday into Saturday, the upper high will become a bit more diffuse when the ridge shifts southward as the aforementioned shortwaves over Canada shunt the feature over the CONUS. Surface high pressure will set up to our southeast by Friday with a strengthening low centered over the Rockies. As our area gets pinched between these features, southwesterly winds between 15-20 mph will be possible on Friday afternoon with temperatures hovering in the lower 90s. The warmup will begin on Saturday as the ridge axis becomes oriented over the region with afternoon highs on Saturday reaching into the mid 90s for most locations across Kansas.

We will see heights increase to our west over the High Plains on Sunday, and then extend over the Central Plains by Monday, lasting into Tuesday. For Sunday through Tuesday, with anomalous heights overhead, afternoon highs will reach into the upper 90s for most across the state, with 100 degree readings possible. Thankfully a slightly drier airmass will accompany the warmest temps, leading to afternoon RH values in the 30-40% range. This will keep heat indices within a couple degrees of actual temperatures for the end of the forecast period, topping out between 100-105 degrees on Sunday- Tuesday afternoons.

A pattern change looks to unfold by the very end of the forecast period as a deep trough passes over the Great Lakes region on Tuesday. This will act to squash the ridge further south and west going into midweek. Heights will begin falling across the state, and temperatures will respond accordingly. Early indications are that by mid/late week, we could see temperatures closer to normal for this time of year.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions areawide through the forecast period. Light southerly to southeasterly winds between 5-10 knots are expected areawide through the time frame. Isolated shower/storm is possible in southeast Kansas this afternoon into the early evening. Confidence remains low in overall coverage and placement.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.