textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather Tuesday afternoon-evening, and again late Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for next weekend.

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

PRECIPITATION:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Today's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing for large scale ascent. However, low-level moisture is a bit richer compared to yesterday at this time, which should support weaker convective inhibition. Additionally, there is some CAM support for isolated thunderstorm development. If a storm or two is able to develop, a favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of effective deep layer shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be 5-10 PM generally along/east of the KS Turnpike.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather potential aren't quite as clear cut for late Tuesday, with the overall uncertainty increasing. With the upper wave slowing down some, dryline convergence looks only modest by late Tuesday afternoon, which may prove challenging for widespread convective initiation. However, as the evening progresses large scale forcing increasing from the west in concert with the low-level jet ramping up should support an eventual uptick in thunderstorm coverage. Additionally, any storms that form may tend to evolve toward mixed/messy mode, due to a decent component of the deep layer shear oriented parallel to the NE-SW dryline, which would tend to cut into higher-end severe potential.

Despite these uncertainties, we will continue messaging the potential for severe storms given the strong combination of shear/buoyancy ahead of the dryline. Area and time would be generally along/southeast of a line extending from Harper to Wichita to Hillsboro between about 4pm and midnight.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...With model consensus hanging back the parent upper trough, the pre-dryline warm/moist/unstable airmass may should remain intact across the region for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. However, the quality of the warm sector will be contingent on how widespread Tuesday evening/night thunderstorm activity is. If this scenario pans out, buoyancy and shear combination would favor a severe threat, although strong forcing and shear vectors mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode and limit a higher-end severe threat.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and shear look to be present. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe) as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low-level wind shear will impact south central and southeast Kansas TAF sites through early Tuesday as the low-level jet ramps up. Some MVFR cigs will be confined to southeast Kansas impacting KCNU through mid-morning before mixing out. Gusty southerly winds may gust around 35-40 knots at times on Tuesday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward over the area once again. Widely scattered storms will become increasingly likely along and east of the dryline after 21-22Z with severe storms likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

TODAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135 both today and Tuesday. Red flag warning remains in effect through 9pm this evening west of I-135, and the fire weather watch will be upgraded to a red flag warning Tuesday. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.