textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible overnight into this morning, along with locally heavy rain.

- Another chance of thunderstorms late Tuesday through Tuesday night.

- Periodic low chances for thunderstorms Wednesday night, and then again Friday night through at least Sunday night.

- Near to slightly above average temperatures the next several days, turning solidly above average by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

EARLY THIS MORNING...Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop during the predawn hours and persist into this morning, mainly along/east of I-135, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail. The potential for higher-end severe hail will likely be hampered by higher cloud bases limiting buoyancy and effective shear. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. All activity will likely exit to the southeast by midday.

LATE TUESDAY--TUESDAY NIGHT...A weak cold front approaching from the northwest should support increasing chances for isolated to scattered thunderstorms late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. A seasonable buoyancy/shear combination along with decent downdraft CAPE may support a few strong to severe thunderstorms, especially along/northwest of the KS Turnpike.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Additional shortwave energy dropping south across the Upper Mississippi Valley may support low thunderstorm chances getting into central KS Wednesday night, but thinking most of this activity should remain west-northwest of the forecast area.

FRIDAY NIGHT--SUNDAY NIGHT...The upper ridge should finally start shifting east from the southwest to the south-central CONUS toward the weekend, as shortwave energy tracks across the northern CONUS and southern Canada. This should allow a cold front to slowly approach from the north, with low thunderstorms chances over mainly the northern half of KS this weekend.

TEMPERATURES:

With northwest flow aloft persisting across the region, near to slightly above average temperatures are expected through late week, with forecast highs mostly in the upper 80s through mid-90s, warmest over southern Kansas. As we head toward late this week and the weekend, the stout upper ridge should shift east from the southwest CONUS to the south-central CONUS, supporting a warming trend over the weekend into at least early next week. Could be looking at another round of widespread 100s, although at least dewpoints should be lower and south-southwest winds on the breezy side.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. East/southeast winds are forecast to persist over the next 24 hours with speeds generally around/below 10 kts.

We continue to see the potential for elevated showers and storms early this morning, particularly along/east of the Flint Hills. While a few showers can't be ruled out at ICT, confidence was too low for a mention at this time. Confidence in timing of impacts at CNU remains high, with minimal adjustments to the -TSRA mention from the 00Z cycle. Rain chances should depart southeast KS by mid morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.