textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued hot Thursday through Saturday.

- A cooldown arriving on Sunday with additional chances for showers and storms across much of the area Saturday-Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

The cold front that swept across the area yesterday continues to mix northward as a warm front. Some lingering stratus remains while the shower activity has lifted north of the area by late morning. Due to limited mixing from morning stratus, a wide range of temperatures are anticipated today with the cooler or more seasonable air remaining draped across parts of central and northern KS while summer-like conditions prevail across much of southeast and portions of south central KS. An isolated late day or early evening shower/storm may be possible as the cap weakens but activity is expected to be limited due to increasing subsidence from the mid/upper ridge which is slowly building back into the region. There is some concern that low clouds/patchy fog could redevelop over parts of central KS as they remain within a weak easterly upslope regime with narrow dewpoint depressions progged tonight.

The mid/upper ridge over the Tennessee Valley is progged to retrograde into the Mississippi Valley area/Southern Plains by late in the week allowing summer-like heat and dry conditions to remain draped across the area Thu-early Sat. As we move into the weekend, a robust shortwave trough is progged to move into the Central and Northern Rockies. This will help break down the ridge on Saturday while driving a cold front southward into the Central Plains on Sunday. The prefrontal trough may become a focus for deep moist convection on Saturday afternoon while the front arrives late Saturday night into Sunday providing an additional focus for showers and thunderstorms. Much cooler and more seasonable air is expected to arrive across the area on Sunday and persist as we head into the upcoming week. Average highs for Sept 19-20 are in the lower 80s and average lows are in the upper 50s. More seasonable air is anticipated in the wake of the front on Sunday while lingering into the middle of next week. A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated early next week but some low pops were maintained at this time given the forecast uncertainty.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1226 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Low ceilings have cleared out of south-central KS with lingering IFR ceilings in central KS. These lower ceilings will continue to erode, likely returning to VFR by 20z. Light winds below 10 kts will continue through this afternoon and the overnight hours. Southerly to southwesterly winds will increase to around 10 kts or slightly above after 15z Thursday. Low ceilings and patchy fog are likely to develop mainly in north central KS during the overnight hours into Thursday morning affecting RSL and SLN. Ceilings are likely to drop to MVFR/IFR and are anticipated to lift back to VFR after 14z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-099-100.