textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Saturday; strong cold front arrives late Saturday with much colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday

- Precipitation chances increase late Saturday through the day Sunday and into next week; potential for wintry precipitation early Sunday morning through Sunday night

- Precipitation chances continue into next week, with the potential for widespread, heavy rain towards the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

As of 115 AM Thursday morning, northwest midlevel flow continues to reside across the central US with ridging across the western CONUS and troughing across the eastern US. A subtle shortwave trough and associated speed max continue to progress south and southeast across portions of the Ozarks. As this shortwave trough traversed central and eastern KS, light rain and sprinkles were observed but only a trace to a few hundredths of accumulation were noted. Surface ridging will build into the area later this morning and into the afternoon hours. This will yield predominately light northwesterly winds and temperatures in the 60s.

Northwest midlevel flow remain across the Plains into the upcoming weekend. A shortwave trough is progged to eject from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes late Friday into Saturday. An associated strong cold front will plunge across the forecast area late Saturday before stalling across portions of central OK. Increasing WAA overtop of this cold, near-surface airmass should result in scattered precipitation late Saturday night into Sunday. In fact, GFS and ECMWF solutions are quite aligned with a 7-8 C/km midlevel lapse rate plume overspreading the forecast area by Sunday morning and may result in a few thunderstorms. This broad WAA pattern is forecast to continue throughout the day Sunday and into Sunday night and is likely to result in additional precipitation throughout that period. The biggest uncertainty remains tied to surface temperatures Sunday. Latest NBM 25th to 75th percentiles remain quite large across the entire forecast area. NBM 25th percentile high temperatures for Sunday range from the upper 20s across central KS to the mid 30s across east- central KS to near 40 across southeast KS. The 75th percentile values range from near 40 across central KS to near 50 across east-central and southeast KS. Given these large spreads in temperature and Sunday being 4 days away, it remains tough to resolve where, if any, wintry precipitation may occur. Bottom-line, both deterministic and ensemble guidance are trending towards colder temperatures for Sunday and the potential for light wintry precipitation may be increasing.

Transitioning into next week, the midlevel pattern will transition to quasi-zonal ahead of a western CONUS trough. Subtle perturbations ahead of the main trough and increasing low and midlevel WAA will maintain precipitation chances for Monday into Tuesday. The aforementioned midlevel trough is progged to eject into the Plains in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe and may result in widespread rainfall, possibly heavy at times. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Weak high pressure is currently sliding across the area which will allow light northwest winds to become light and variable by late this afternoon, then eventually come around to the southwest by Fri morning. Confidence remains high that clear skies will remain in place through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 146 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A brief period of very high fire danger is possible Friday afternoon across the Flint Hills. Extreme fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not anticipated. A pattern change towards the end of the upcoming weekend into next week appears to support the potential widespread precipitation. Should this evolve, fire weather concerns will be tabled, at least temporarily.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.