textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend begins today with highs in the 80s and 90s over the next week.

- A weak cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening with a few storms possible across eastern KS

- Very high fire danger possible Thursday afternoon for areas west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 226 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Currently, the shortwave is exiting our area to the east with the broader upper level trough shifting over the Northeast CONUS. Upper level ridging is beginning to build in over the High Plains with northwesterly flow setting up over the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure is centered overhead with light and variable winds across the region this morning. Ridging will continue to build into the Plains today with temperatures rebounding into the upper 70s to lower 80s across the forecast area. The surface high will sink off to the south with a deepening low over the Northern Plains in response to a mid/upper level trough digging into the Northern Rockies. Southerly winds will increase this afternoon, particularly over our central Kansas counties, as the pressure gradient strengthens ahead of our next system. Look for southerly winds generally between 10-20 mph this afternoon with a few gusts over central Kansas up to 25 mph.

By Tuesday, the ridge axis will extend across the Rockies placing us solidly under northwest flow, continuing our warming trend. Highs on Tuesday will reach well above normal with temperatures in the 80s to lower 90s areawide. As the next trough digs into the Upper Midwest on Tuesday, it will force a weak cold front across the forecast area by Tuesday night. Moisture will increase ahead of the boundary with PWATs reaching between 1-1.5". Modest instability is expected with MUCAPE values between 1000-1500 J/kg and bulk shear will top out between 40-45 kts. A window of thunderstorm development is expected between late Tuesday afternoon into the evening hours, primarily in eastern Kansas. A few strong to severe storms will develop with the primary threats being strong wind gusts up to 60 mph and large hail. The frontal boundary will exit the area to the south by Wednesday morning and temperatures on Wednesday afternoon will be slightly cooler behind the "cold" front, though still 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s. Ridging will primarily dominate the pattern through the end of the week with the ridge axis overhead by Thursday leading to well above normal temperatures in the upper 80s and 90s. A minor perturbation in the pattern could lead to some isolated shower chances on Thursday night, otherwise we're not looking at any kind of significant pattern change till the end of the forecast period when a trough approaches the Northern Plains leading to increasing rain and storm chances for next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Light winds currently observed across the area will turn to the south/southwest and strengthen by late morning and early afternoon especially across central KS, where gusts in excess of 20 kts are likely. Confidence is high in clear to mostly clear skies over the next 24 hours with high pressure in place.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Fire weather concerns are forecast to return Thursday afternoon for areas generally west of Interstate 135. Gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-25% range. Areas west of Interstate 135 have remained quite dry for the last several months, delaying the rate of green up.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.