textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- ON/OFF periods of showers and storms will affect mainly central and south central Kansas for Today-Friday, severe weather risk is low although there is some risk for locally heavy rainfall

- Another round of showers/storms possible on Saturday along with potential for some stronger thunderstorms to develop in the afternoon

- Longer range models continue to show increasing probabilities for a noticeably stronger weather system to impact the region Tuesday- Wednesday. Severe storms and heavy rainfall are both potential threats from this weather system

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Current early morning polar satellite generated ALPW layer imagery shows a few embedded waves traveling northward with-in plume of deeper moisture streaming northward from Mexico into New Mexico/west Texas/western Kansas. Periods of showers and occasional embedded storms will continue to stream northward across western Kansas and locations generally west of I-135 in central Kansas today with-in the rich precipitable water axis. Strong or severe thunderstorm potential will remain low given limited instability and poor mid- level lapse rates. The richer precipitable water axis will gradually shift eastward for tonight into Friday with ON/OFF periods of showers/embedded storms persisting over central/south central Kansas. Locally heavy rainfall is possible given rich atmospheric moisture with some brief periods of training showers/storms containing higher rainfall rates for tonight into Friday. HREF shows an uptick of surface based instability occurring for locations west of a Anthony to Kingman, Great Bend line where a few strong storms could try and materialize Friday afternoon. Loitering clouds/precipitation for locations east of that line will likely keep the low levels stabilized and potential for severe weather low. This could also result in cooler than current forecast daytime highs for Friday. The last remaining upper level wave looks eject from the Rockies into Kansas for late Friday night into Saturday resulting in a continuation of showers/storms over the region. Models are showing better potential for some clearing skies and modest surface heating/increased instability levels occurring Saturday afternoon over western/central Kansas. Depending on timing of upper level wave this could become an area for surface based storms to initiate with a few strong storms possibly affecting our CWA.

A lull in the activity is expected for Sunday-Monday as upper level ridging briefly amplifies over the region. Meanwhile heading into the Tuesday-Wednesday period models continue to show a more pronounced upper level wave ejecting from the Rockies into the central plains. GEFS model ensembles are highlighting a healthy deepening/slowing down trend of this upper level wave. The ingredients coming together predicted by the latest model guidance shows signals for possible severe storms given combination of increasing wind shear/instability. However, if the model trends continue to deepen and slow the speed of this upper level wave down the scenario could transition to more of a heavy rainfall/flooding threat for the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Off-and-on showers and thunderstorms will be the primary aviation hazard the next 24 hours.

Thinking chances will be highest through about mid-afternoon for SLN-GBD-RSL. Another round of showers/thunderstorms is expected to move in from the west this evening, affecting all TAF sites except CNU. These off-and-on chances will continue tonight through Friday at all TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.