textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers & isolated storms possible Thursday. Rainfall amounts will be light and likely not helpful to ongoing drought conditions west of I-135.

- Below average temperatures to continue through the rest of the work week, then a warming trend heading into the weekend and the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows robust zonal flow aloft at the base of a broad deep layer trough overspreading the northern half of the CONUS. At the surface, a post frontal airmass has taken over the central plains with a northerly breeze and mild temperatures in the 60s across the forecast area. A subtle shortwave perturbation will pass over the central plains on Thursday which will support some broad and weak synoptic lift across the western half of Kansas promoting some scattered showers and isolated storms on Thursday. Additionally, cold mid-level temperatures will support some shallow instability across central and south-central Kansas Thursday afternoon which may support some showers and isolated storms west of the Flint Hills. Much of this activity will likely be focused along a diffuse cold front forecast to sweep across the region. However, unlike across western Kansas, activity across central and south-central Kansas will be fighting broad synoptic descent caused by confluent flow aloft. It's still a little unclear how much coverage of showers and storms there will be across the area on Thursday. With the loss of daytime heating, rain chances are likely to quickly come to an end after sunset Thursday evening. The aforementioned cold front will usher in another bout of cooler air, and some portions of central Kansas could see some frost Friday morning with temperatures dipping into the mid 30s. Quiet and mild conditions are anticipated on Friday with afternoon highs in the 60s and nighttime lows in the upper 30s and 40s.

A warming trend is forecast going into the weekend with afternoon highs rising up into the 70s on Saturday, and potentially the 80s for Sunday through Tuesday. This warming trend will also feature fairly quiet conditions across the central plains with little to no impactful weather expected through next Tuesday. Beyond day 6, there some long range global ensembles are hinting at a return to a more active pattern, but it's way too early to get into the details of any storm potential for right now.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Light and variable winds are anticipated over the area tonight with only some scattered to broken high clouds. Cloud heights will gradually lower into the 5k-8k ft range as we move into the day on Thursday as a subtle storm system approaches. Widely scattered shower activity may develop over the area and PROB30 groups were added for ICT, SLN, HUT, GBD and RSL in the 18Z-23Z timeframe. Light northerly winds will develop in central KS late in the period as a diffuse frontal boundary arrives but speeds are expected to remain light.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.