textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A round of severe storms is expected this afternoon and evening as a vigorous storm system emerges from the Rockies.

- A seasonably mild pattern looks to prevail from Wed-Mon with some showers possible Wed night into early Thu, mainly southern KS.

- Mild and dry as we head into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1229 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A vigorous mid/upper trough over the Central Rockies was evident on water vapor imagery late this morning while the mid-lvl speed max was situated across the Southern High Plains. This strong mid-lvl flow is progged to nose into southern Kansas in the 21-00Z timeframe. This is when we will see the sfc low pressure area deepen over parts of central and southwest KS allowing some backing of the sfc winds across south central Kansas allowing the dryline to sharpen. As the cap weakens, scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop by around 21Z (possibly earlier) and spread rapidly north and east across the area. Moisture in the warm sector is abundant with late morning sfc dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s. The environment remains favorable for supercell formation with favorable 0-3km CAPE and strong low-lvl shear profiles progged as we move into the mid and late afternoon hours. Any discrete or semi- discrete cells in the late afternoon and early evening hours may be capable of producing a brief tornado before the activity becomes more linear as we move into the evening hours. Even with a linear mode as we move into the evening hours, abundant 0-3KM MLCAPE/0-3km bulk shear would support some brief QLCS tornadoes in addition to damaging winds and some more marginal hail potential. The line of storms looks to shift east of southeast Kansas around midnight.

Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms will remain possible along the Pacific front in central and parts of south central KS as it moves slowly eastward through the night. We continue to see steep mid-lvl lapse rates as the upper low moves across the area which should keep some embedded thunderstorms in the forecast for central KS through much of the night. The front will usher in more stable air as we move into the early morning hours on Tue with precipitation gradually diminishing from west to east as the upper low translates ENE away from the area. Highs on Tue are expected to remain seasonable ranging from the mid to upper 50s where showers persist (central and northeast KS) to the mid to upper 60s across far southeast KS.

Shortwave ridging returns on Wed with seasonably mild and tranquil weather anticipated. Another shortwave trough is progged to arrive late Wed night into Thu bringing increasing probabilities for showers, especially across southern KS while seasonably mild temperatures persist across the area.

Mild and dry weather will return on Friday as another mid/upper ridge moves across the Central Plains. This will be followed by a clipper system digging across the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley area late on Saturday. This system will drive a weak cold front south across the area Sat night into Sun but higher probabilities for showers are expected to remain north and east of our region. The front will bring gusty winds but minimal impacts to temperatures with seasonable values anticipated through the weekend.

An extended period of mild weather may arrive as we move into next week as a mid/upper ridge is progged to impact the central CONUS bringing above average temperatures and mostly dry weather conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to impact southeast KS and CNU through 08-09Z. Visibility may drop less than 2 miles within the most intense showers. Additional showers are developing across central and western KS and will pivot across GBD/RSL/SLN overnight into the morning hours of Tuesday. Otherwise, MVFR to IFR CIGS will continue at most sites through Tuesday afternoon and evening before VFR conditions will return from west to east late in the period. A cold front will progress across the area tonight into Tuesday, shifting winds from the northwest at 15-25 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. These winds will persist through the afternoon and into the evening hours Tuesday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.