textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and thunderstorms will increase on Wednesday with on and off chances persisting through Saturday.

- Slightly above normal temperatures this afternoon and Tuesday with near-normal temperatures for Wed through the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Currently, a broad upper-level ridge is situated across the southeastern quadrant of the country with weak flow aloft across the central CONUS. A trough is situated off the Pacific Northwest that will eventually dive south along the Pacific coast. At the surface, high pressure is positioned over the eastern U.S. leading to southerly to southeasterly winds across the forecast area. A weak surface trough located over the Northern Plains will interact with moisture surging northward with the southerly flow and create isolated shower/storm chances along the KS/NE border. Otherwise the forecast area will remain primarily under the influence of the surface high today and into Tuesday morning. Mostly clear/partly cloudy skies and slightly above normal temperatures are expected today and Tuesday with highs in the middle 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight will fall to around 60 degrees.

As we move into Tuesday night, anomalously high PWATs (1.25-1.50") will begin to move over the region. A few scattered showers can't be ruled out across our southern-most counties in a largely uncapped environment. Then, for Wed/Thu, as an upper level cutoff low stalls over California, a shortwave will eject over the Central Plains. With a moist airmass in place, as this feature moves over the region, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop and move across the forecast area. A lee trough will gradually strengthen on Wednesday and eventually lift over the Northern Plains by Thursday night leading to continued rain/storms through much of the day Thursday. Because of the relatively cool mid-levels, we will remain mostly uncapped through this period. This, along with limited instability, will mean a low chance for any severe storms. However, due to the slow-moving nature of the system and very moist airmass, some localized heavy rain/flooding is possible with portions of the forecast area being placed in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall for Wed/Thu.

For Friday and Saturday, some isolated off and on rain chances will persist with the elevated PWATs remaining over the region. But, with weak forcing, confidence remains low on coverage and intensity of precipitation. By Sunday, a potent trough over the Great Lakes region will send a back door cold front across the region. This feature will bring in a drier airmass that will quell rain chances into next week.

Temperatures through the forecast period will remain near, or slightly above, normal with afternoon highs reaching into the upper 70s and 80s and overnight lows falling into the upper 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 632 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs across the region with light southerly winds. Winds will gradually increase for Tuesday afternoon. There is a chance for some widely scattered showers/storms across mainly southern Kansas late Tuesday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.