textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue through Saturday with a cold front set to move through Saturday night, knocking temperatures down for Sunday and Monday.

- Small chance for light rain/sprinkles for Wednesday evening, with only very light rainfall amounts anticipated. Rain chances will also increase for Sunday into Sunday evening, especially for eastern KS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Currently have broad upper ridging from the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest, with northwest flow aloft across the Plains. At the surface, lee troughing is gradually strengthening across eastern CO into western KS.

Not much is expected to change through Wed, with northwest flow aloft remaining in place. There is good model agreement in a weak upper impulse sliding down in the flow Wed evening. This feature will bring an increase in mid level clouds along with a chance for some very light rain or sprinkles Wed night, with high confidence that most locations are looking at less than a tenth inch of rainfall. Not much in the way of cold air to filter-in behind the Pacific front, with highs back into the 60s for Thursday.

We will remain in strong northwest flow aloft for Friday with good downslope conditions pushing highs into the 70s region wide. GFS and ECMWF remain consistent in pushing a strong cold front through the forecast area Saturday night, knocking highs back into the 40s and 50s for Sunday. As far as temps go for Sunday, currently have quite a bit of model spread, so confidence is low at this time. Currently have a slight lean to the cooler solutions given the shallow nature of the airmass. Warm advection above the shallow cold air may also result in some rain showers on Sunday into Sunday evening, especially across eastern KS. Cooler airmass looks to remain in place into Monday across the area.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Gusty southwest winds over south central and southeast Kansas will gradually diminish from west to east while wind direction backs to a westerly direction becoming light and variable toward evening. VFR will prevail with only some high cirrus impacting parts of central and eastern Kansas through the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 145 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Very high fire danger will return for Friday afternoon.

Temperatures on Friday are expected to warm into the 70s area wide and with dry low levels, RH values are forecast to fall to around 20%. Even though winds will not be that strong, the low RH's will elevate the fire danger into the very high category. Winds Friday afternoon are expected to be out of the southwest in the 10 to 15 mph range with a few higher gusts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.