textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very active pattern looks to continue through at least Thursday with confidence increasing that another MCS will be possible for both Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

- While damaging winds and hail will remain a threat with storms, heavy rain and flooding will continue to become a significant threat as we get multiple rounds of heavy rain.

- Below normal temperatures will remain through Friday with a warm-up for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Currently have a large complex of storms tracking through central and eastern OK with additional development over southwest KS into the OK Panhandle. This activity is being fueled by very strong 850-700mb moisture transport with an abundance of MUCAPE in place. Difficult to find the cold front given widespread convection, but it appears to stretch from northern AR through northern OK and into the TX Panhandle.

Once storms push southeast this morning, not expecting much in the way of showers/storms through the remainder of the day. Cold front will remain well south of the forecast area today. Storms are expected to develop this afternoon over northeast CO/nw KS/sw Nebraska as we get back into some upslope flow. This activity will track southeast this evening but should die off before they make it into the western portion of our forecast area.

There is good model agreement that an MCS will track across western/central Nebraska late tonight into Tue morning and may try and make it down into northern KS by Tue afternoon. This will be associated with a cold front that is also expected to move into the area, and could be aided by outflow from MCS. We are expecting storms to become more widespread Tue night as another weak mid/upper perturbation comes across the Rockies and sets up good low level jet convergence across the area. Severe storms and heavy rain will be possible with this activity and it may linger into Wed morning.

The same overall setup is anticipated for Wed through Thu morning, with storms developing over the High Plains and rolling east through the overnight hours. This would mean another nighttime MCS for much of KS. Upper pattern will start to flatten out for Thu into Fri with a series of upper impulses moving into the area, keeping high storm chances in. It appears we may finally get a break from this wet pattern for the weekend, as a deep upper trough digs across the northwest CONUS, lifting the front north and warming mid level temps enough to limit storm chances.

Confidence remains high in below normal temps continuing through Fri, with highs in the 80s. A warm-up is anticipated to start for the weekend with highs back into the 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Main aviation concern will be low clouds this morning.

Widespread MVFR/IFR cigs are in place across the entire area this morning as northeast winds continue to bring in cooler air. These lower cigs are expected to remain through around 16z, before lifting to VFR levels. Winds will remain out of the northeast and east but will remain fairly light. Storms are expected to hold off today and tonight at all sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.