textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures expected over the area for today and Wednesday

- Confidence for an arctic outbreak with dangerous bitter cold wind chills impacting Kansas continues to increase for Friday-Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Mild temperatures will be in store for Kansas today with westerly downslope flow effects and sunny skies helping boost temperatures above normal for daytime highs. The mild temperatures will continue on Wednesday followed by a slight cool down on Thursday.

Models remain consistent with the upper level pattern showing a polar vortex rotating southward from the Hudson Bay area into the Great Lakes region on Thursday. This system will dislodge a large chunk of frigid arctic air from northern Canada where temperatures are currently in the 20s below zero. The arctic air will blast southward across the Dakotas into Nebraska on Thursday, and begin to invade Kansas Thursday night. Expect falling temperatures during the day on Friday as the arctic air continues to march southward deep into the southern plains. The arctic air will remain well entrenched across Kansas through the weekend with model ensemble probabilities showing 60-80% chances for daytime highs on Saturday to remain below 10 degrees for many locations over central/southern Kansas. Typically arctic airmasses of this magnitude can be slow for temperatures to modify/recover, therefore temperatures could remain very cold into Monday especially if we witness some accumulating snowfall over the region. We are still seeing noticeable differences between the models with the handling of potential snowfall across the region for Friday into the weekend. GFS model is less bullish on snowfall for Kansas and much further south with it's accumulating snowfall signal compared to the ECMWF/Canadian models. ECMWF model continues to show a prolonged signal of lift affecting mainly southern Kansas/Oklahoma beginning Friday night and continuing into Sunday. Consequently confidence is high on extreme cold temperatures/dangerously cold wind chills affecting Kansas with this type of setup, however confidence is lower with snowfall potential.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the region during the next 24hrs with clear skies and just a few high clouds tonight. Southwest winds will increase across south central Kansas for this afternoon as surface pressure gradient increases. Winds will then decrease by sunset with a wind shift dropping southward tonight. This will cause the winds to switch around to a northwest direction.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.