textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Low potential for slick spots on elevated surfaces from patchy freezing drizzle and fog across central Kansas this morning.

- Chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe.

- Additional chances for storms both Thursday and Friday. Strong to severe storms are possible with activity as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

As of early this morning, zonal flow was in place across the central plains, and the next system to impact the region is coming onshore across northern California and southern Oregon. At the surface, northeast winds remain persistent, keeping cooler air in place across the region. Additionally, saturated low levels with just a hint of subtle low-level isentropic ascent will leading to patchy drizzle continuing much of the forecast area. The freezing line is generally located along a Salina-Hutchinson-Pratt line, and drizzle that is occurring north and west of this line may be freezing on elevated surfaces. Ground temperatures well-above freezing should help to keep widespread icy spots from developing, but slick spots on bridges and overpasses are possible this morning across central Kansas until temperatures solidly warm above freezing after 15Z. Patchy drizzle and fog will gradually end from west to east later this morning.

A few isolated lingering showers cannot be ruled out throughout the day today in lieu of the arrival of the next system. Short-term guidance is fairly persistent with the idea of widespread mid-level WAA overspreading the area late tonight. However, with better moisture and instability displaced off to the east, the best chances for the development of showers and storms will be along and northeast of a Salina-Eureka-Coffeyville line overnight tonight into early Tuesday morning. Chances for showers and storms will wane later Tuesday morning ahead of a slow moving cold front. By late Tuesday afternoon and evening, the front is likely to be located across southern and eastern Kansas. Opportunities for convection Tuesday afternoon will likely be thwarted by stout capping, evening with strong surface convergence along the frontal boundary. With synoptic lift increasing as a result of the approaching shortwave trough entering into the central plains late Tuesday evening into Tuesday night, the cap should erode, and widely scattered elevated convection is likely to develop along, or just behind the frontal boundary. A narrow zone of elevated instability around 1000 J/kg along with effective shear around 40-45 knots should support the potential of strong to marginally severe storms producing up to quarter-sized hail Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Showers and storms will progress eastward Wednesday morning, and should exit the forecast area by early Wednesday afternoon. A brief break in activity is anticipated Wednesday afternoon through much of Thursday before chances for showers and storms return late Thursday night.

While exact details are difficult to pin point at this time, we're starting to get a better idea on how chances for showers and storms will unfold Thursday and Friday. Another potent shortwave trough will enter the southwest CONUS on Thursday with a lead subtle impulse racing over the Rockies and entering into the High Plains by the evening hours. This leading shortwave appears to provide just enough synoptic lift to support the development of scattered showers and storms across the TX/OK Panhandles late Thursday evening. This activity will race northeast throughout the nighttime hours and likely impact portions of the forecast area late Thursday night into early Friday. Any storm is likely to be elevated, so hail would be the most likely threat with any stronger storm in this time frame. Then, as the primary shortwave trough ejects into the central plains with a cold front crashing southward into the region on Friday, numerous showers and storms are likely to develop Friday afternoon and evening. SPC has highlighted the potential for severe storms, mainly along and east of the Kansas Turnpike, as instability and shear appear to be sufficient for organized convection Friday afternoon into Friday night. Chances for storms gradually come to an end early Saturday morning from west to east, and a break in precipitation is currently forecast for the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Poor aviation conditions will affect much of the area during the overnight and morning hours with cigs in the IFR/LIFR category. Some patchy light freezing drizzle will affect SLN during the overnight hours. Northeast winds will gradually shift to the east/southeast with cigs rising into the MVFR category during the afternoon hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 352 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Warm and breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon will result in marginal very high grassland fire danger across southern KS, then again on Thursday and Friday afternoons in central KS. However, rainfall is expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.