textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible today through Saturday night. Severe storms are not anticipated.

- Periodic showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday into the upcoming weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are expected to return on Sunday and persist into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

One shortwave trough was emerging from the Northern Rockies into the Northern Plains while another more subtle shortwave trough was lifting negatively tilted over the Middle Mississippi Valley area. A trailing cold from from the Northern Plains trough may become a focus for scattered showers and a few storms today as it propagates into Central Kansas. Some modest moisture ahead of this frontal boundary is expected with dewpoints mainly in the lower 60s. This will result in MLCAPE around 1000-1500 J/KG in an uncapped airmass resulting in scattered showers and more isolated or widely scattered storms developing along this boundary as we move through the day. A strong storm or two may be possible during peak heating, but widespread severe weather is not anticipated due to lack of deep layer shear and lackluster mid-level lapse rates. More seasonable temperatures are anticipated this afternoon but confidence remains rather low given widespread stratus residing across the area early this morning. Some showers may fester over southern KS and southeast Kansas this evening/tonight as the upper pattern evolves slowly and a secondary pv anomaly rotates into the Central Plains, but strong or severe storms are not anticipated.

As we move into Saturday and Saturday night, we start to see some mixed signals as the cold front becomes diffuse and may not scour out the low level moisture, leading to some scattered showers lingering or redeveloping across south central and southeast Kansas. The RAP is most aggressive with the frontal boundary, which results in the deeper moisture shunted south and east of the area. Some low pops were maintained given the uncertainty. Once again, deep layer shear/lackluster mid-level lapse rates will preclude strong or severe storms. Seasonably cool temperatures may linger given limited insolation.

Rising heights/increasing thickness will bring moderating temperatures as we move into Sunday-Monday. Dry weather is expected to prevail across the area with highs climbing back into the mid and upper 80s for most areas.

Another shortwave trough over the Southern Plains is progged to lift toward the Central Plains on Tuesday while lingering through the remainder of the week with weak steering flow anticipated. This will bring unsettled conditions to the area with continued chances for showers and a few storms. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is expected to remain low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Low ceilings continue to impact much of the area this morning. Showers with heavy rain over southeast Kansas will build into the CNU terminal through around 15Z before drifting east of the area. Other showers and isolated storms are expected to develop along and ahead of a slow moving cold front late this morning into the afternoon hours impacting parts of central and south central Kansas. Ceilings may gradually lift as we move through the day, especially in central Kansas. However, low ceilings are expected to return tonight, especially for areas along and east of the Kansas Turnpike where IFR/LIFR will be possible once again.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.