textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder temperatures today followed by warmer readings on Tuesday and Wednesday

- Chances for an arctic air with dangerous wind chills affecting Kansas during the Friday-Sunday period is gradually increasing

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Early morning analysis shows a mid-level frontogenesis zone over east central Colorado extending southeast across western Kansas. This frontogenesis zone has generated a narrow band of snow and trajectories for this area lift look to shift southeast towards far south central Kansas/northern Oklahoma. Some light snow is possible mainly for Harper county with any impacts staying mainly west of the coverage area. Daytime highs will be lower today as polar surface high pressure settles over Kansas. The colder temperatures will be short-lived for Kansas as the core of the cold airmass quickly shifts east of the area by Tuesday. The dry weather pattern will continue for Tuesday and Wednesday along with warmer above normal temperature and a series of weak frontal zones dropping southward both nights.

Heading into Thursday models are in good agreement with a robust polar vortex rotating southward from the Hudson Bay area to the Great Lakes region. This will dislodge a large chunk of frigid arctic air and force it to spread southward across the northern/central plains. ECMWF EFI index trend is showing increasing number of ensemble members predicting an extreme cold event likely to occur over the northern plains and most of the central plains for Thursday-Sunday. Timing of the arctic air looks to invade Kansas early on Friday and remain entrenched over the area through the weekend. This could send wind chill readings into the dangerously cold category during this period. Regarding winter precipitation chances there is a signal by some of the models for winter precipitation to affect the area, however model trends are shifting the more impactful winter precipitation south of Kansas. We will continue to monitor those model trends/probabilities.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming TAF period. Northerly winds will gradually shift from the west and eventually the south this evening but remain predominately in the 7-12 kt range. Wind speeds are forecast to increase in the 20-25 kt range near the end of the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.