textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will continue into this evening before slightly cooler temperatures return for Sunday and Monday.

- Scattered showers and storms are possible early this evening into tonight with chances lingering into Sunday morning.

- Slight rain chances are possible each night with better rain chances across the area expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

An upper shortwave trough is currently sliding across the Central Plains into the Middle Mississippi Valley with the main ridge axis over the Great Lakes area. A weak surface boundary remains draped across central Kansas into southwest Kansas. Highs are closer to normal in the low 90s in north central KS with south central and southeast Kansas in the 90s to low 100s. Late this afternoon into the early evening, instability will increase along the boundary with steep low-level lapse rates especially in south-central KS, likely resulting in scattered storms developing along the boundary. A few strong to severe storms are possible with damaging wind gusts as the main hazard as DCAPE values are generally up to 1500 J/kg. PWATs continue to remain above the 75th percentile for this time of year with areas approaching 2" or greater, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. As we move into tonight and the overnight hours, another weak shortwave trough is progged to slide across the Central Plains, shifting better rain chances into central KS. This activity is likely to linger into Sunday morning.

By Sunday morning, the cold front should push south of our area into Oklahoma bringing slightly cooler temperatures for Sunday afternoon as winds shift to northerly. Highs will range from the mid 80s in central KS to the low 90s in south central with some areas in southeast KS in the low 100s. There is some uncertainty with timing of the front for southeast KS, which may result in hot conditions lingering there as heat indices are currently forecast between 102- 108. Given the uncertainty, did not extend a Heat Advisory to the area but trends should be monitored. Slight rain chances (under 20%) may be possible Sunday night into Monday mainly in southern KS near the KS/OK border, though uncertainty is high. Near normal temperatures will continue into Monday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the area.

As we remain in zonal to northwesterly flow aloft as the upper ridge builds back into the Rockies and a deep upper trough digs over the Great Lakes, a few weak shortwaves embedded in the flow may slide across the region resulting in slight rain chances both Monday and Tuesday night. Confidence is high that most of the region will remain dry with this activity. For Tuesday, warmer conditions will likely return as above normal 850 mb temperatures are progged. This will result in highs rising back into the upper 90s to lower 100s. Though this heat might be short-lived as a frontal boundary is progged to move south through the area on Wednesday. There is some uncertainty with the timing of the boundary, but its likely to end up in southern Kansas near the KS/OK border by early Wednesday afternoon. If this solution happens, highs will range from the upper 80s in central KS to the upper 90s in southern KS. Better rain chances are possible Wednesday night into Thursday as a stronger shortwave trough slides across the region, though there is uncertainty and trends will continue to be monitored. For Thursday and beyond, near normal temperatures for this time of year appear likely with highs in the 90s and lows in the 60s to low 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Aug 15 2026

A few isolated thunderstorms will remain possible over primarily south-central KS in vicinity of ICT and HUT through 02-03z or so. Isolated wind gusts up to around 40-50 kts may accompany the strongest activity, along with brief heavy rain.

Toward midnight and extending through the overnight, there is a decent signal by the short-term models that a thunderstorm complex will track east-northeast across central KS, possibly impacting GBD, RSL, and SLN. The main threat with this activity will be 40-50+ kt wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall.

By late tonight and early Sunday, light to modest northerly winds will spread south in wake of a weak cold front. The cold advection may support a period of low MVFR or even IFR ceilings in wake of the front across central and eastern KS. Only hinted at this for now, and will look closer for the 06z TAFs.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052- 053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.