textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms along with heavy rainfall expected Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning.

- Cool and breezy Wednesday, then warm and breezy conditions return on Thursday. Very high to extreme grassland fire danger is possible Thursday afternoon.

- Dry weather expected Wednesday through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict strong zonal flow over the Northern Plains and Great Lakes as a potent mid/upper trough swirls over Baja California. These two features are expected to translate eastward through the night into Tuesday. Increasing southerly low-level flow from this second feature will allow for moisture advection into the region and promote showers and thunderstorms along and ahead of a cold front approaching from the north. Though guidance remains a bit unclear as to how far south this front is able to make it through the region, short-term model ensembles suggest showers developing during the afternoon primarily along and west of the Kansas Turnpike before increasing coverage of showers and storms along and north of the front by evening throughout the forecast area. Some of these initial evening storms could be severe with ample instability and effective-layer shear, though shear orientation largely parallel to the surface boundary should largely preclude discrete convection and subsequent severe potential. As such, storm mode should remain mostly linear along the front and result in heavy rain as storms develop and potentially train through the overnight hours.

Dry weather is anticipated to follow in the wake of the upcoming system as northwest flow aloft resumes. After a brief cooldown on Wednesday with high temperatures near normal in the 50s, seasonably warm to mild conditions with highs in the 60s and 70s are forecast through Saturday before another cold front arrives late Saturday into Sunday. The trailing airmass is expected to knock highs back to near normal to close out the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1210 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Weak surface trough remains through central KS, resulting in light north winds over northern KS. Meanwhile, southwest winds will remain this afternoon over southern and southeast KS with a few gusts to 30 mph over southeast KS(KCNU). Winds will come around to the south at all sites early this evening and will remain light. For Tuesday, gusty southwest winds are expected for areas generally southeast of the KS Turnpike. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain through the next 24 hours. Current thinking are that storms will stay out of the area through 18z Tue with better chances after 21z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 228 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Gusty north winds and RH values in the 20-30% range may result in very high grassland fire danger Wednesday afternoon along and west of the Flint Hills. However, this fire danger may be mitigated by wetting rains Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

A combination of gusty southwest winds, RH values in the 20-30% range, and above normal temperatures is expected to result in very high grassland fire danger Thursday afternoon primarily along and west of the Flint Hills once again. Extreme grassland fire danger is possible across central Kansas during this time period as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 246 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Record Highs for today... Site Record High Year Tdy's Forecast High ICT 81 1986 78 SLN 80 1986 81 CNU 79 1899 81 RSL 78 1986 82

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.