textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms likely today (mainly after 1PM) along and east of I-135. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall are the primary concerns; however, a couple tornadoes cannot be ruled out.

- Much cooler and quieter conditions forecast for this weekend. Then a warm up is likely during the beginning of next week.

- Storm chances return late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this morning, a positively tilted trough was progressing eastward across the Great Basin and Rocky Mountains. At the surface, a strong cold front was located across southwestern Nebraska, northwest Kansas, and eastern Colorado. These features will be the catalyst for widespread thunderstorm development later this afternoon. Let's dig in.

Robust ascent caused by height falls aloft from the approaching upper trough along with a quickly approaching strong cold front will likely trigger widespread thunderstorm development early this afternoon. So far, short term guidance has been on track with the timing and location of the approaching cold front this morning. By 1PM, the cold front is likely to be located along or just northwest of the Kansas Turnpike. Robust instability around 3000-4000 J/kg should support rapid convective development along the cold front generally around this time frame when height falls aloft quickly overspread the region. The aforementioned robust instability along with effective shear around 45 to 55 knots should support the potential for very large hail (greater than 2 inches) upon initial thunderstorm development. However, shear vectors and storm motions will be parallel to the advancing cold front, so convection is almost certain to grow upscale very quickly. Therefore, the threat of very large hail will likely wane about 2-3 hours after CI, and primary threats will likely transition to damaging winds and heavy rainfall thereafter. This upscale growth will also significantly limit the threat of tornadoes. However, any discrete or semi-discrete storm that finds itself ahead of the line of storms along the cold front would pose a higher tornado threat around or after 00Z given enlarging low-level hodographs caused by a strengthening LLJ. While this has low chance of occurring, the "best" chance for a tornado or two will be across southeast Kansas later this evening into tonight. In addition to the severe hazards, higher than average PWATs will support the potential of heavy rainfall. However, the rapidly advancing cold front will reduce the residence time of this heavy rainfall. Additionally, antecedent drought conditions will limit the risk of widespread flooding. That being said, localized training of thunderstorms could produce brief localized flooding tonight, mainly across southeast Kansas. Chances for storms will end from northwest to southeast late tonight, and conditions should become quieter after midnight across the forecast area.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH TUESDAY...

Much cooler air will surge into the region later today, and much of central Kansas will begin to feel these cooler conditions as soon as this afternoon. Late tonight into Saturday morning, this much cooler air mass will overspread the area and lows in the 30s and 40s are currently forecast across Kansas. With breezy conditions behind the cold front, wind chills across central and southern Kansas will be well into the 20s and 30s Saturday morning. Highs Saturday afternoon will only be in the low to mid 60s, which is slightly below average for this time of year. Clear skies and light winds Saturday into Sunday morning will maximize radiational cooling, and lows Sunday morning could be at or near freezing across the entire forecast area. Southerly flow returns Sunday afternoon, and it should persist into the beginning of next week. This will promote a warming trend, especially west of I-135 where surface winds will be more veered out which will serve to advect drier and warmer air.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Towards the end of next week, mid to long range guidance suggests southwest upper flow will return across the southern and central plains due in part to broad upper troughing returning to the western CONUS. This should set the stage for another round of active weather late next week and into the following weekend. There's a number of details that need to be worked out; however, it appears low storm chances could return as early as Wednesday evening and will increase through the remainder of the week and into next weekend. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Severe storms likely along and east of the Kansas Turnpike this afternoon and night.

Currently, VFR conditions are reported at all TAF sites this morning. A strong cold front is located across northwest Kansas and is quickly advancing into central Kansas this morning. Upon frontal passage, winds will shift from southerly to northerly. The front should arrive at KRSL within the hour, then KGBD and KSLN within the next 2 to 3 hours. It will be located around KHUT or KICT by 18Z.

Storms will develop along this frontal boundary after 18Z, and these storms should develop rapidly. Up to 2-inch hail is possible along the Kansas Turnpike between 18-22Z. Then the threat of damaging wind gusts, perhaps over 50 knots, will be the main concern between 22Z and 04Z as storms track across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas (including KCNU). Chances for storms will decrease after 04Z tonight.

VFR conditions should resume after 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Breezy and dry conditions will support very high grassland fire danger this afternoon west of the I-135 corridor. Very high grassland fire danger will occur in the same area each afternoon on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday as well.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.