textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms through this evening, and again Friday afternoon-evening. Strong to severe thunderstorms not expected.

- Modest potential for strong to severe thunderstorms Monday afternoon-evening.

- Mostly near to below average temperatures the next several days, with the exception of warmer 80s Sunday-Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Fleet-footed shortwave energy traversing Mid-America in concert with a weak cold front approaching from the north will support scattered rain showers and perhaps a few weak thunderstorms through the evening, especially generally along/north of Highway 54. Meager instability will prevent strong/severe thunderstorms or heavy rainfall.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...A deep trough dropping south through Mid- America amidst daytime heating and cooling temperatures aloft should prove sufficient for at least widely scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening. Activity should initiate over central and northern Kansas during the afternoon, moving south-southeast into southern Kansas during the evening. Similar to today, meager instability will prevent strong/severe thunderstorms or heavy rainfall.

MONDAY AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...A cold front dropping south through Mid-America along with a pair of shortwaves approaching from the west and northwest may support increasing shower/thunderstorm chances across the region early to mid next week. As things currently stand, thinking the greatest potential for a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms would be Monday afternoon-evening, when there is a favorable combination of shear, buoyancy, and large scale forcing. While this doesn't appear to be a widespread severe weather event, stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

FOG:

TONIGHT--EARLY FRIDAY...Light boundary layer winds amidst clearing skies and moist low-levels may support patchy fog later tonight into Friday morning, especially over central Kansas. Not much model support for fog, although pattern recognition should support at least some patchy/shallow ground fog for low-lying areas between about 4-9 AM.

TEMPERATURES:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports mostly near to below average temperatures the next several days, as an expansive longwave trough remains anchored over central and eastern North America. The exception will be Sunday-Monday, as heights/thickness and southwesterly flow increases ahead of our next cold front. 80s look probable for daytime highs Sunday-Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Thu Apr 30 2026

Widely scattered light rain showers continue to drift southeast over southern Kansas early this evening. This activity is expected to fade away over the next couple of hours if not sooner. Dry conditions are expected through the remainder of the period with light winds and abundant mid-level clouds streaming over the area. Clouds may keep fog formation from developing but we could see some transient MVFR visibilities around sunrise. Another subtle shortwave trough could bring afternoon showers to the area on Friday but confidence in coverage remains fairly low at this time with no mention planned in the TAFs.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.