textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog this morning for areas along and east of I-135, with some dense fog possible.

- Strong cold front moves through tonight and will bring highs on Sunday around 10 to 15 degrees below normal.

- Unseasonably warm temperatures likely for Tuesday, with many locations seeing low 60s for highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy tracking across the Mid Mississippi Valley with a series of additional perturbations from the Northern Rockies into the Central Rockies. Meanwhile, a a deep Polar low is rotating across Ontario and is allowing some very cold air to start moving into the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley.

Clear skies and light winds have allowed some patchy fog to develop for areas along and east of I-135. So far here in Wichita the fog has been very shallow and patchy but has also been fairly dense at times. Currently have a dense fog advisory for southeast KS where moisture is somewhat deeper, but wouldn't be surprised if this will need to be expanded further west if fog becomes more widespread.

The main story for tonight into Sun will be for a strong cold front to surge through. Colder air will start to spill south into our forecast area later tonight as a strong piece of energy tracks out of southern Manitoba and into the Western Great Lakes region by Sun morning. This will keep highs in the 30s on Sun which will be around 10 to 15 degrees below normal. Shortwave energy will quickly track across the Plains Sun into Sun night and will get the area back into strong northwest flow aloft to start the work week.

There is good model agreement that a compact fast moving upper impulse will track out of the Northern Rockies and across the Northern/Central Plains on Tue. This will push the surface high east and also increase lee troughing, which will setup great downslope conditions on Tue. Still looking for highs on Tue to be in the upper 50s and low 60s, which will be around 10 degrees above normal highs. Pattern will remain very progressive with another upper wave taking the same track, moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley by Thu morning. The GFS is more robust with this shortwave trough compared to the ECMWF and would bring another surge of Arctic air into the area for Thu night into Fri. Meanwhile, the ECMWF keeps the really cold air further northeast. So beyond the Wed time frame, confidence drops off considerably with regards to temps.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

Main aviation concerns will be low clouds and fog this morning, mainly across southeast KS.

Fog has been steadily increasing in coverage across southeast KS over the last few hours with this trend continuing as we speak. Further west, fog has been more patchy and transient. Here at KICT, fog will move-in for around an hour, and then move out and has been very shallow. So for this morning, KCNU will have the best shot to see LIFR conditions through at least 16z with KICT seeing brief periods of low vis and cigs this morning. Cold front is still expected to move through late tonight and will flip winds around to the northwest.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for KSZ071-072- 095-096-098>100.