textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to marginally severe storms are possible late this afternoon into tonight with hail as the primary risk.

- Significant cool down expected for Tuesday and Wednesday with gusty northeasterly winds on Tuesday.

- Scattered rain chances will be possible Tuesday through late Wednesday. Strong to severe storms are not anticipated.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 235 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper low digging over Ontario with troughing stretching from the Northern Plains to the Great Lakes area. Weak upper ridging is sliding across the southwestern US into the Southern Plains. At the surface, a low is over Ontario with a cold front draping down through Wisconsin into the Middle Mississippi Valley and into the Nebraska/Kansas border. A dryline is setting up in central KS down through central TX. Instability will continue to increase late this afternoon to 1500-2000 J/kg with steep mid-level lapse rates and adequate effective shear. There is a low chance storms for storms to develop this afternoon near the dryline though better storm chances will arrive after 7PM. The cold front will continue to push south into our area combined with an increasing low-level jet will increase storm chances across eastern KS Monday night into early Tuesday. The primary threats with this activity will be hail up to quarter size, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

The cold front is progged to move south of our area by Tuesday morning with gusty northeasterly winds behind the front. It is possible for some areas in south-central KS to approach Wind Advisory criteria though it would be very marginal for a short duration. Scattered rain chances will be possible through much of Tuesday in central and southeast KS though better chances will remain in northwest KS into Nebraska and in southern Missouri. Given the expected cloud cover and much cooler temperatures behind the front, high temperatures are likely to top out in the 50s with some locations in southern KS reaching the low 60s on Tuesday afternoon. Model guidance continues to bring an upper trough off the shore of California into the southwestern CONUS late Tuesday and phase with the upper trough over the Northern Plains. This trough combined with 700 mb frontogenesis will increase rain chances with the best chances in western KS into parts of central KS. Given the lack of instability, mainly rain showers and possibly a few weak thunderstorms are likely Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances may continue into Wednesday afternoon in parts of central KS with higher rain chances remaining in western KS. This trough will continue to shift east late Wednesday night, decreasing rain chances into Wednesday night. Well below normal temperatures are forecast for Wednesday afternoon with highs in the 50s.

Upper ridging is progged to build into the western CONUS on Thursday with flow aloft over the Plains shifting back to northwesterly by Thursday afternoon. Thickness will start to increase promoting a warming trend starting Thursday and continue into the weekend. Mostly dry conditions are expected Thursday through Saturday afternoon with rain chances possibly returning Saturday night into Sunday as the next shortwave trough is progged to move into the Central Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions will continue this afternoon and evening. Southerly winds will continue to gust up to 25 kt at CNU this afternoon, otherwise light and variable winds are expected elsewhere. A strong cold front will pass across the area late this evening and overnight, shifting winds from the northeast at 20-30 kt with gusts near 35 kt. In addition, a few thunderstorms cannot be entirely ruled out near SLN and CNU late tonight into Tuesday morning. Confidence remains too low for direct impacts at the terminals for any mention greater than a PROB30. Low CIGS are expected to impact portions of south-central and southeast KS, although confidence is only high enough at CNU for prevailing MVFR mention.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.