textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably hot temperatures to overspread the area for today through Saturday with some records likely set, especially on Friday. Cold front set to move through on Sunday, knocking temperatures back down to seasonable normals to start to work week.

- Warmer temperatures anticipated for both Tuesday and Wednesday of next week.

- Precip looks to remain out of the forecast for at least the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Currently have a strong upper ridging encompassing the Desert Southwest with northwest flow in place over the Plains. Upper ridge is expected to remain in place for today and Friday with 850mb temps by Fri afternoon in the 17-20C range. With deep mixing, this will easily result in temps in the upper 80s if not close to 90 degrees. With records on Friday all in the mid and upper 80s, there's a good chance most if not all will be broken. There remains good model agreement that some shortwave energy will slide across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain on Friday night and into the Northern Plains on Saturday. This will allow a cold front to start its push south. So confidence is high that Saturday will be the last unseasonably hot day, before a cold front moves through the area on Sunday. Regarding the 00z model runs, the ECMWF is slightly faster with the front compared to the GFS and NAM and would result in southern and southeast KS still seeing above normal highs on Sunday.

Behind the front, we will get back to seasonal temps to start the work week, with highs generally in the low 60s. While confidence is high that we will get back into a warming trend for Tuesday and Wednesday, confidence starts to drop off after this point. The latest run of the ECMWF is starting to trend closer to the GFS in breaking down the western CONUS ridge more than previous forecasts. If this trend continues, it could signal another cold front to move through later next week. Confidence also still remains high that we are not looking for any decent precip events through the next 7 days.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours across central and eastern Kansas. A wind shift will support northerly winds by Thursday morning, with a few isolated gusts up to 12-16 kts possible.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Very high fire danger will be likely on Saturday across parts of central KS, with very high fire danger expected to be in place area wide on Sunday.

For Saturday, the main driver for fire danger will be hot temperatures that will produce low afternoon RH values in the 15-20% range. Winds will be out of the southwest around 15 mph with a few gusts to 20 mph.

For Sunday, cold front will move through the area during the day with gusty north winds following behind the front. Even with cooler air and higher RH's moving in, there will still be several hours of very high fire danger across most of the area, with the main driver being increased winds behind the front.

CLIMATE

Issued at 211 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

Record highs are likely on Friday, and maybe Saturday.

Friday (3/20): Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 89 (2017) Salina: Forecast - 87, Record - 86 (1934) Chanute: Forecast - 87, Record - 87 (2017) Russell: Forecast - 87, Record - 85 (1953)

Saturday (3/21): Wichita: Forecast - 90, Record - 92 (1916) Salina: Forecast - 91, Record - 96 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 88, Record - 95 (1916) Russell: Forecast - 92, Record - 85 (1997)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.