textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible this evening through early Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong to severe thunderstorms possible. Flood watch issued for south-central and southeast KS due to very wet antecedent conditions.

- Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last through most of next week. This will bring much warmer/humid weather, mostly dry conditions, and gusty south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS EVENING--EARLY SATURDAY...A remnant old frontal zone will begin lifting north across the area this evening and tonight. Modest warm advection and moisture transport in concert with a weak mid-level disturbance approaching from the west should support a gradual uptick in isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances this evening and persisting early to mid-morning Saturday. Another possible area of thunderstorms may move east off the High Plains later tonight, augmenting these storm chances. Latest data would support the best chances for thunderstorms mainly over south-central and southeast KS, generally south of Highway 56.

A favorable combination of deep layer shear and elevated instability may favor a handful of strong to severe storms, capable of quarter size hail and perhaps 60 mph winds.

Of greater concern is the potential for additional heavy rainfall. While we are not expecting widespread/numerous thunderstorms (not everyone will see a thunderstorm), the isolated to scattered nature of the thunderstorms could produce localized pockets of heavy rainfall. Given the very wet soils from recent widespread heavy rainfall, any additional rainfall will only aggravate or re-aggravate recent and ongoing flooding concerns. Consequently, we will issue a broad-brushed flood watch this evening into early Saturday for all of south-central and southeast KS.

SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Building upper ridging will support a pattern change, with mostly dry weather prevailing Saturday afternoon through much of next week across central and eastern KS.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A building upper ridge will support a pattern change, with increasing heat/humidity Saturday through next week. Given the progged dewpoints and low-level thickness values, thinking a prolonged period of 100-105+ degree heat indices are likely. We will be monitoring for any possible heat advisories or excessive heat warnings. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support a prolonged period of breezy/gusty south winds Saturday through next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 638 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

LOW CLOUDS: With diurnal cooling and moisture advection overnight, expect sub-2000 ft AGL MVFR to possibly even IFR ceilings to fill back in later tonight and persist into Saturday morning.

THUNDERSTORMS: Evening scattered thunderstorms are expected over far southern-southeast KS and northern Oklahoma, with this activity likely remaining well south of ICT and just south of CNU. Later this evening and overnight, we are expecting a gradual uptick in isolated to scattered thunderstorms further west-northwest across portions of central, southern, and eastern KS, as 850-700 warm advection and moisture transport commences. Included PROB30 groups for most TAF sites to account for this threat into early Saturday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ067>072-082-083- 091>096-098>100.