textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered storms expected Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Some storms could be strong to severe. Best chances east of I-135.

- Additional chances for showers and storms heading into the weekend. Strong to severe storms possible Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Currently, the ridge axis extends north to south through the Plains with a deep trough digging into the Western CONUS. At the surface, a low is developing in the Northern Rockies with a frontal boundary extending into the Desert Southwest. Moisture surging ahead of the next system has lead to low clouds and mist across much of the area this morning. This activity will continue to clear out from west to east through the afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient is leading to continued breezy southerly winds today with sustained winds between 15-25 mph and gusts between 30-35 mph possible. Well above normal temperatures are expected overnight as WAA is seen across the region as overnight lows only fall into the lower 60s.

For tomorrow, the trough that is currently over the Western CONUS will traverse eastward and will be centered over the Rockies by tomorrow morning. An elongated surface low will be stretched over the High Plains with a frontal boundary located in western Kansas by daybreak. Temperatures ahead of this next frontal boundary will reach into the upper 70s to lower 80s for most on Thursday afternoon. The cold front will march eastward through the day with a slower progression than previously expected. This slower eastward movement will allow initial storm development along the dryline in central Kansas before the frontal boundary outruns it. With ample MUCAPE (2500-3000 J/kg) and shear around 40 kts, initial supercellular development is anticipated along the dryline with an isolated tornado threat. But as the cold front catches up to the convection, a multicellular broken line of storms will evolve where strong winds and large hail will be the primary concerns.

Slightly cooler temperatures in the middle to upper 70s will prevail for Friday behind the front with a few lingering showers in Southeast Kansas. The front will stall to our south on Friday, then by Saturday it will begin to lift back over our area as a warm front. Instability will increase through the evening hours on Saturday pairing with an increasing LLJ leading to what looks like an evening/overnight thunderstorm risk. Another potent shortwave trough will then swing through the area on Sunday. Sufficient instability and shear will lead to additional severe chances developing late Sunday afternoon and lasting through the evening hours, primarily across southern and southeastern Kansas. Details for both Sat/Sun events will continue to be refined in the coming days. Behind Sunday's system, clearing skies and near normal temperatures are anticipated to begin next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

MVFR CIGS will return to all sites momentarily with a lowering to IFR and possibly LIFR after 03Z. CIGS are expected to gradually lift through the late morning and early afternoon hours back to MVFR and possibly VFR. Southerly winds will remain gusty overnight with gusts up to 35 kt expected. A weak cold front will approach central KS by mid to late morning, shifting winds from the north/northwest at 10-15 kt. Thunderstorm development is possible in the vicinity of SLN/HUT/ICT towards the end of the period but confidence is too low for mention at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 410 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds alongside above normal temperatures and low humidity will support very high grassland fire danger in areas west of K-14 during the afternoon hours today and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.