textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm-up this weekend with 80s likely by Sunday with above normal temps continuing into Monday.

- Cold front to move through Monday night into Tuesday morning with high confidence in below normal temps for Tuesday and especially Wednesday.

- Rain chances will start to increase Monday night into Tuesday with even higher chances arriving for Tuesday night through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Currently have an upper low situated along the Ontario/Quebec line with a vort lobe tracking south across eastern KS. At the surface, a broad area of high pressure extends across the majority of the central Plains.

Showers and isolated storms that made their way across central KS were the result of the upper impulse sinking south across the area. This activity is currently making its way out of southern KS. Northwest flow aloft is expected to be in place across the Central Plains for today and tonight. This will allow for plenty of sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures. Upper flow will start to become more zonal for Sunday as some weak upper energy tracks out of the Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. An east-west surface trough/front is forecast to setup by late Sun afternoon generally south of I-70 with increasing dewpoints across eastern KS. Currently not expecting any storms to develop along this feature due to capping issues, with the better storm chances over Missouri.

There is good model agreement that by Mon morning another deep upper low will start to setup over eastern Ontario with a vort lobe/upper trough developing on the backside of the upper low, from the Northern Rockies into the Northern/Central Plains. This will allow a strong cold front to push south, moving through the forecast area for Mon night into Tue morning. Increasing shower/storm chances will be tied to the frontal passage. Both ECMWF and GFS agree on tracking a southern stream upper impulse across the Desert Southwest on Tue and then phases this energy with the northern stream upper trough swinging across the Central Plains by early Wed morning. This setup is expected to bring another round of rain to the region for Tue night through Wed. After Wed we then look to get back into northwest flow aloft as the upper trough quickly swings into the Ohio Valley.

As far as temps go, we will continue to warm this weekend, with 80s likely for Sun and will continue into Mon. Cold front will move through Mon night ushering-in much cooler air for Tue with another surge of colder air for Wed. We should then start a warming trend Thu that is expected to continue into the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Sat May 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

High based showers and weak thunder are expected to push off to the southeast early this morning and give way to dry and relatively calm conditions over the next 24 hrs. Winds will remain light and variable with surface high pressure situated over the region.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for KSZ032-033.