textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and mostly dry conditions are expected through Monday. Heat indices between 105 to 113 are possible each afternoon into the evening.

- Low chances for showers and storms will return late Monday night and are possible each night through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 344 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A strong upper ridge remains over much of the Plains with the ridge axis extending down from the Northern Plains to the Central Plains. In our area, dewpoints range from the upper 60s in central KS to the upper 70s in southeast KS. This moisture combined with high temperatures near 100 has resulted in heat indices greater than 105 across the area. The warmest heat indices reside across south- central, southeast and portions of central KS where values are greater than 110. As such, the Extreme Heat Warning has been expanded north and remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. As we move into tonight and Sunday morning, low temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees above normal with lows in the upper 70s.

The upper-level pattern for our area is progged to remain the same for Sunday through Monday with an upper high remaining over the central/southern Rockies and into the central/southern Plains. Above normal 850 mb temperatures are forecast with the ECMWF showing an 850 mb temperature anomaly between 4-8 C and the GFS between 7-12 C. This will result in high temperatures between 100-105 with heat indices between 105-110 each afternoon into the evening. For Sunday, the warmest heat indices are anticipated in far southeast KS where dewpoints in the low 70s are expected, resulting in heat indices exceeding 110 degrees. As such, an Extreme Heat Warning is now in effect for southeast KS from noon to 8 PM on Sunday. For Monday, high temperatures near 105 are likely for central and south-central KS with highs near 100 in southeast KS. Even though hotter high temperatures are forecast for central and south-central KS, lower dewpoints are progged with values in the low 60s. This will keep heat indices greater than 105 across the area, but likely less than 110 degrees. A Heat Advisory remains in effect across the area through 8 PM Tuesday.

The upper ridge will break down Monday night into Tuesday, which will limit the warmest conditions to southern KS on Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will range from the mid 90s in central KS to near 100 in southern KS. This will result in the warmest heat indices in southern KS with values around 105 degrees. The ridge axis is progged to shift westward towards the Central Great Basin and Desert Southwest late in the week, though high temperatures will generally remain above normal with highs in the 90s forecast through the end of next week with low temperatures in the 70s. For precipitation chances, as the upper ridge breaks down, this will give way to low chances for showers and storms starting Monday night. These chances will be possible each night through the end of the week. At this point, the best chance for rainfall looks to be Thursday night into Friday as guidance suggests a more pronounced shortwave trough to slide across the region. Stay tuned for forecast updates.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

VFR conditions likely the next 24 hours across central, south- central, and southeast KS.

Can't completely rule out a stray shower/thunderstorm late this afternoon-evening across the region, due to the very hot/humid conditions and weakly capped airmass. However, chances are much much higher that any one location will remain thunderstorm- free, so will keep TAFs dry. Another chance for a lone isolated shower/storm will be later tonight into early Sunday as a slug of mid-level moisture sloshes back northward, especially over southern KS (similar to early this morning). Once again, chances and coverage are way too low to consider inserting mention into the TAFs.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>051. Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ052- 053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ052-053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098. Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ071- 072-095-096-099-100. Heat Advisory from 8 PM this evening to noon CDT Sunday for KSZ071-072-095-096-099-100. Heat Advisory from 8 PM Sunday to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ071- 072-095-096-099-100.