textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures today followed by a warming trend for Sunday and Monday

- Fire weather risk looks to attain very high fire danger levels mainly for Sunday, Monday, and Thursday afternoons across parts of the area

- Thunderstorm chances continue to increase for the area Tuesday/Tuesday night along with the potential for another round of strong to severe storms

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Cooler temperatures with much drier will be in store for Kansas today as a strong cold front pushed southeast across the area last night. Temperatures will quickly rebound for Sunday and especially on Monday with increasing south winds pushing warmer air back into the region.

Meanwhile, richer low level moisture will begin to stream back northward into Kansas for Monday into Tuesday in response to models showing a healthy upper level wave moving eastward across the southwestern states. Deterministic models and associated model ensembles continue to show a deepening trend with this southern stream weather system. Latest model timing shows the upper level wave ejecting east from New Mexico into west Texas for Tuesday afternoon/evening. This is the next period we will be monitoring closely over the coming days. The combination of decent wind flow aloft overspreading a fairly unstable airmass with well defined frontal boundaries developing/moving through the region supports strong to severe thunderstorm development for Tuesday- Tuesday night. The weather pattern looks to calm down in the wake of the Tuesday system as drier/cooler air spreads across Kansas for Wednesday followed by warmer temperature for rest of the work week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low clouds in MVFR/IFR category will erode from west to east across the region this morning as departing upper level wave shifts northeast. VFR conditions expected there after with northwest winds diminishing as the afternoon goes on, then become light from the south/southwest tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Warmer temperatures combined with increasing south winds will cause the grassland fire danger index to reach very high fire danger on Sunday afternoon for much of the area. The very high fire danger looks to shift eastward on Monday and mainly impact locations east of the Kansas turnpike during the afternoon hours due to a continuation of warm temperatures/breezy southwest winds. Increasing rain chances expected on Tuesday will lower the fire danger risk, but things quickly dry out and the fire danger could become elevated again by Thursday afternoon over central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.