textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A smattering of hit-or-miss showers/sprinkles late tonight through Wednesday morning. Only light rainfall amounts expected.

- Near to above average temperatures through this week and into the weekend. An eventual cool down looks probable next week.

- Increasing probabilities for scattered showers by late Saturday and persisting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 225 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

LATE TONIGHT--WEDNESDAY MORNING...Similar to this morning, expecting a smattering of hit-or-miss showers and/or sprinkles late tonight through Wednesday morning across the region, as a low-amplitude shortwave meanders through Mid-America. High cloud bases and limited moisture/buoyancy and expected lift will support only light rainfall amounts. Can't completely rule out a few stray lightning strikes given lower-end buoyancy, but most locations will remain thunder- free, and severe weather is absolutely not expected.

LATE SATURDAY--EARLY NEXT WEEK...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a deep western CONUS upper trough approaching from the west in concert with a cold front approaching from the northwest should support increasing shower/thunderstorm chances as we head into later Saturday and persisting into early next week. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency is fairly poor this far out, so uncertainty remains high surrounding timing, coverage, and rainfall amounts. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

Building heights/thickness and persistent southerly flow will support a warming trend to mostly above average temperatures as the week progresses, and possibly persisting into the weekend. Forecast highs climbing into the mid-upper 70s look probable by mid-late week, with forecast lows in the 50s. Additionally, persistent High Plains lee troughing will support breezy south winds, strongest Friday and Saturday when gusts could top 30-35 mph.

As we head into next week, an eventual cool down looks probable, as model consensus supports a deepening central and eastern CONUS upper trough, and associated Canadian high pressure settling south into the Heartland.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

Aviation concerns will remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Area of virga and sprinkles shifted into northeast KS late this morning leaving mostly sunny skies in place. Another upper level impulse is expected to approach the area Tue morning and will bring another round of sprinkles and light showers to much of the area. However, confidence remains high that cigs will remain at VFR levels through the next 24 hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.