textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- On-and-off showers and storms expected through early Saturday. A handful of strong to marginally-severe storms are possible, though the greater risk at this time appears to be locally heavy rainfall.

- Storm chances return Saturday afternoon/evening, with strong to severe activity possible.

- Dry Sunday and Monday, then a storm system arrives on Tuesday that may bring additional severe/flooding concerns.

- Seasonably warm Saturday through Monday, then a return of seasonably cool temperatures by middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon depict a mid/upper wave shifting northeast over the Desert Southwest as a secondary speed max resides near the Upper Mississippi River Valley. Showers and weak storms continue to make their way to the northeast through portions western and central Kansas (primarily west of I- 135) within a rich PW axis. These will continue and shift east heading into the overnight hours amid broad synoptic ascent from the approaching jet and persistent low-level theta-e advection. Additionally, short-term guidance highlights increasing instability later this afternoon and early evening over far south central Kansas (generally along/west of K-14). At the least, this will allow for locally heavy rainfall in the strongest cells considering PWs progged at 200% of normal for this time of year, though 20-25 kts of deep-layer shear may allow for some storm organization and perhaps some strong to marginally severe wind gusts prior to sunset. This threat will shift east to include locations primarily along and west of I-135 on Friday, though for both today and Friday we are not expecting widespread severe storms.

Activity will continue through Friday night into Saturday as the upper wave ejects out of the Rockies and into the Plains. At the same time, a frontal boundary will track out of western Kansas and push eastward into central Kansas. Clearing skies ahead of this boundary will allow for increasing instability and weak capping across portions of central and south central Kansas, and ~30 kts of deep-layer shear may allow for more strong to severe thunderstorms through the afternoon and evening hours. The positioning of the mid- level wave does throw some uncertainty into this setup, however, with much of the global suite suggesting a more progressive track and widespread subsidence throughout the region amid increasing heights in its wake. This would put a damper on storm development Saturday afternoon, though considering the instability in place, it will be hard to rule out a few strong to severe storms at this time.

Quieter weather is forecast Sunday into Monday as the upper wave departs the region. This break will be short-lived, however, as global models carry another wave into the region by late Monday night. This will bring more chances for widespread showers and storms to the forecast area with the potential for locally heavy rainfall/flooding should trends continue to slow the wave's progression. Stay tuned as additional details come into focus.

In regards to temperatures, areas under abundant cloud coverage should see seasonable to seasonably cool temperatures (highs in the middle 70s to near 80) through Friday, while locations that see some clearing will warm into the middle 80s. These slightly warmer temperatures will overspread the entire area Saturday through Monday as layer thicknesses increase in the wake of Saturday's storms. Highs ranging from the middle 70s to near 80 will return Tuesday with the arrival of the next storm system.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to be the primary hazard over the upcoming 24-hours.

For our central Kansas terminals we could see of IFR/LIFR ceilings develop at times between shower activity. Easterly winds in central Kansas may begin to veer to the southeast as we move through the night, keeping higher probabilities for low ceilings north of our area. Shower and storm activity will linger into Friday as we remain within a moist airmass with southeast winds gusting to 15 or 20 knots at times, highest in central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.