textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and snow expected later today into tonight.

- Snow accumulations up to 1 inch most likely south of I-70 and west of I- 135. Impacts likely limited to slick elevated surfaces.

- Dry conditions and average temperatures expected this weekend.

- Warm up expected for the beginning of next week before cooler temperatures return mid week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 341 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

TODAY & TONIGHT...

As of 3AM this morning, water vapor satellite shows a vigorous upper trough progressing eastward out of the Four Corners Region and ejecting into the southern/central plains. Ahead of this upper trough, a region of 850-700 mb frontogenesis is beginning to develop across the TX/OK Panhandles and far western Kansas. This will be the focus for rain and snow later today into early tonight for locations mainly along and west of the Flint Hills. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in where the rain/snow line will set up as precipitation begins to overspread the area early this afternoon. Model soundings suggest precip types should stay between rain and/or snow with surface/near surface temperatures being the warmest in the profile, and the mid-level warm nose staying below freezing. Deterministic and ensemble models have been slightly more aggressive with QPF (just an increase of a few hundredths of an inch); however, even if all of the precip falls as snow, warm surface temperatures will likely limit any accumulations. That being said, if mesoscale bands of snow develop, it's possible snowfall rates could briefly overcome this and localized accumulations up to 1 inch, mainly south of I-70 and west of I-135, may occur. Further north and east, surface temperatures should remain above freezing through much of the afternoon likely limiting the time snowfall will occur and keeping accumulations down to a trace. Impacts from this event will likely be limited to elevated surfaces where slick spots may develop once temperatures drop below freezing this evening. As the system exits eastward, so will the precipitation. It's possible folks across southeast Kansas could see a few flakes tonight right as precipitation comes to an end, but little to no impacts this far east are expected.

THIS WEEKEND & NEXT WEEK...

After today's system, rather quiet conditions are forecast this weekend and into next week. Deterministic and ensemble global models show a strong signal for potent upper ridging across the western CONUS developing this weekend and into early next week. Temperatures this weekend are expected to be around average, but as the aforementioned ridge builds partially into the central plains, a fairly dramatic warm up is expected Monday and Tuesday. Then the long range models are currently on board with the eastern periphery of the upper ridge breaking down and allowing for a northwesterly flow regime to take over across the central plains. This pattern generally supports average to cooler than average temperatures and dry conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Rain and snow expected today and tonight, then aviation conditions improving overnight into Saturday morning.

Currently, VFR conditions are present at all TAF sites. However, low clouds and precipitation will move in from the west, potentially beginning to impact KGBD and KRSL as early as 16Z this morning. Precipitation will likely start as rain or a rain/snow mix and then gradually transition to light snow from west to east this afternoon and evening. Main impacts will be MVFR to IFR cigs and visibilities under 2 miles in moderate bands of snow. The greatest impacts will likely be limited to KGBD, KHUT, and surrounding areas through about 3-6Z tonight.

As precipitation exits eastward after 6Z, cigs are expected to improve, and VFR conditions should resume early Saturday morning across the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.