textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Low chances (under 30%) of a few showers in central and eastern Kansas late this evening into Wednesday morning.

- Potential for strong northwest winds on Friday could lead to elevated fire weather concerns.

- Repeated cold fronts will lead to near normal temperatures for much of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Currently, broad troughing extends across the Great Lakes region and into the Northeast U.S. with a short wave diving into the Northern Plains. An associated surface front is draped across the Dakotas. Water vapor satellite imagery shows an upper level cutoff low centered over the Southern High Plains. Ridging continues across the western CONUS and northwesterly flow extends through all levels over our area this afternoon. This downsloping has helped our temperatures climb into the 50s and lower 60s thus far today. However, thick mid-level clouds extending across the base of the short wave are limiting warming slightly. Though well above average temperatures are still expected for much of the forecast area today.

The frontal boundary across the Northern Plains will dive across our area overnight. A few showers along and just behind the front are anticipated in central and eastern Kansas though coverage looks to remain relatively limited so only including 20-30 POPs. Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front from early morning through the day on Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday will remain closer to normal for this time of year with highs topping out in the middle to upper 40s. Temperatures will recover into the 50s on Thursday with breezy south-southwesterly winds ahead of the next cold front.

Going forward into the end of the week and the weekend, repeated short waves diving into the Northern Plains will lead to a barrage of cold fronts impacting our area. The main forecast concern will be the gusty winds, specifically on Friday as a tight pressure gradient builds between the deep low over the Great Lakes and the high over the Rockies. Model guidance continues to trend upward with widespread gusts on Friday afternoon between 40-50 mph likely and gusts over 50 mph possible for our central Kansas counties. Breezy conditions will persist into the weekend, though at a slightly lesser magnitude. Then, as has been the trend so far this winter, the trough will continue to pivot just to our east keeping the coldest temps centered over the Eastern U.S. and away from the forecast area. Highs primarily in the 40s are expected for Friday into early next week with lows dipping down into the 20s and upper teens each night. With the repeated surge of relatively dry arctic air, POPs will remain low with each frontal passage.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 534 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

High clouds will continue to stream overhead with westerly winds switching to the northwest and increasing during the overnight hours. Winds will continue to increase during the late morning and afternoon hours on Wednesday along with some low clouds developing between 3000ft-5000ft layer.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 620 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Friday Afternoon...

Strong northwest winds with gusts up to 45 mph and relative humidity values down to 25% will support widespread very high grassland fire danger. Cool temperatures in the 40s may somewhat mitigate fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.