textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably warm conditions to continue through this weekend.

- Next rain chances forecast to arrive on Sunday and Monday. Best chances are along and west of the Flint Hills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show a building mid/upper ridge across the central CONUS. Meanwhile, a potent deep layer trough is lumbering eastward towards the California coastline. Closer to home and at the surface, a weak surface trough resides over southwest Kansas and the OK/TX Panhandles with southerly low level flow overspreading much of the CWA out ahead of it. Meridional flow aloft overspreading much of the southern and central Rockies will promote gradual pressure falls across the Front Range and High Plains leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient and resultant increasing southerly low-level flow through the rest of the week. The advection of warmer temperatures will support highs each afternoon Thursday through Saturday in the mid to upper 70s. With ample sunshine on Thursday, it's possible some locations could surpass 80 degrees. Increasing cloud cover Friday and Saturday should keep temperatures somewhat in check, but they will remain above average for this time of year.

BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...

Mid to long range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the aforementioned deep layer trough continuing it's very slow trek eastward towards the central plains late this weekend into early next week. Early on Sunday, continued southerly to southwesterly flow aloft over the southern and central Rockies will support weak lee cyclogenesis, and surface trough/frontal boundary will begin to progress eastward into the central plains. Additionally, moisture from the eastern Pacific (likely in part from current TD 22-E) will be pulled northward into the central plains. With increasingly synoptic lift, increasing convergence at the surface with the sharpening frontal boundary, and increasing moisture with PWATs well over 1" (around 90-95th percentile for this time of year), confidence is increasing for widespread rainfall across much of the western 2/3rds of Kansas late Sunday into Monday. By Tuesday, the mid/upper trough driving this unsettled weather is forecast weaken and phase into the polar jet residing across the northern CONUS. With the loss of forcing for ascent, rain chances are likely to taper off by late Monday or early Tuesday. With the slow progression of this particular system, it's likely some portions of eastern Kansas could miss out on rain altogether, though it's too early to say that with much certainty at the moment. Additionally, this system will bring in a cooler air mass with the current forecast calling for afternoon highs in the 60s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to start off next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1033 PM CDT Wed Oct 21 2026

Quiet VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas. Deepening High Plains low pressure will support breezy south winds by midday Thursday, with gusts up to 20-25 kts for mainly RSL and GBD.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.