textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers begin this evening and last through Monday evening.

- Mild through Monday, with cooler air arriving on Tuesday.

- Rain chances return this coming weekend alongside even cooler temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate a strong mid/upper trough situated over the Four Corners and continuing its track eastward. At the surface, southerly winds have been observed so far today as high pressure currently centered over Missouri slides toward the Ohio River Valley.

The aforementioned trough will eject out of the Rockies and into the Central Plains later this afternoon and evening. This feature will promote the development of a band of showers sweeping across the area from west to east heading into the overnight hours. Per prior forecasts, initial rain accumulations through Monday morning will likely remain around or below 0.10" given the relatively-quick pace of the system. Another round of rain is anticipated to commence along the backside of the system through Monday morning and afternoon with short-term models indicating broad isentropic ascent ahead of an oncoming weak cold front. All told, higher rain totals for the event look to reside in southeast Kansas, with HREF probabilities of at least 0.25" in the 60-80% range especially along and east of the Kansas Turnpike. Rain will end from west to east by late afternoon and early evening as forcing continues progressing to the east.

Midlevel energy rolling east across the Northern Plains will bring a cold front through the forecast area on Tuesday. This will knock afternoon high temperatures into the low 50s across portions of central Kansas while southeast Kansas should see another day of low/mid 60s ahead of the boundary. Additionally, the associated deepening surface low will work to tighten the pressure gradient across the region and further result in gusty winds throughout the day. Global models continue to highlight deep mixing to an 850-mb 35-40 kt jet which indicates the potential for gusts up to 45 mph in central and south central Kansas. However, with ensembles (EPS/NBM) indicating relatively low confidence (20%) in gusts this strong to this point, a fair bit of uncertainty remains with these winds. Regardless, the approaching airmass will look to linger through the end of the week and keep seasonably cool highs (40s and low 50s) in place.

Long-range models bring the next system to the forecast area by next weekend and hint at the potential for rain and even a few snowflakes across the area. Furthermore, confidence is beginning to increase in Arctic air making its way into the region toward the beginning of December per global deterministic and ensemble guidance. Confidence in specific details remain low at this extended range, so trends will need to be monitored as additional information comes into focus.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1141 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Main aviation concerns will be lowering ceilings tonight into Mon morning along with increasing rain shower chances.

Morning fog finally started to burn off a couple hours ago with some still lingering over southeast KS. LIFR cigs will linger at KCNU for a couple more hours before lifting out. Upper low over the Four Corners region will continue approaching the area and will bring increased rain shower chances this evening. In addition, persistent moisture advection will bring another round of lower cigs late tonight into Mon morning, especially across southern and southeast KS. We may also see some drizzle mixed-in with the lower cigs late tonight which may lower vis to the 3sm range. At this point confidence is high we will see IFR with pockets of LIFR at KICT-KCNU-KHUT.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.