textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm today through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon through early Friday night. Some could be strong to severe, especially along and east of I-135.

- Additional chances for showers and storms heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...

Broad and weak mid/upper ridging is sliding over the southern and central plains early this morning. Meanwhile, a rigorous storm system is lumbering its way over the Pacific coastline and will be the focus for showers and storms later this week. In the meantime, warm conditions and breezy southerly winds will dominate the forecast area over the next couple of days. Afternoon highs will generally rise into the 70s and 80s while overnight lows only drop into the 50s and 60s. Drier and warmer conditions west of I-135 may support a brief period of very high grassland fire danger this afternoon and Wednesday afternoon. Additionally, moisture returning to the High Plains along with broad synoptic lift from the approaching trough overspreading the same region will potentially support some isolated convection across western Kansas. This activity may just sneak as far east as Russell and Great Bend, but chances of this remain very low. Therefore, PoPs Wednesday evening and night will remain below 15%.

THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...

The aforementioned upper trough will eject into the central and northern plains Thursday afternoon and bring another bout of scattered strong to severe storms across much of the forecast area. With such a sharp and potent trough, forcing for ascent from the upper levels will be quite robust. Additionally, a cold front crashing southward into abundant moisture and buoyancy will provide more than enough support for thunderstorm develop Thursday afternoon and evening. With so much ascent, along with shear vectors parallel to the advancing frontal boundary, convection will rapidly grow upscale. Upon convective initiation, storms may remain discrete or semi-discrete for just long enough to briefly pose a very large hail threat (at least 2 inches in diameter). However, as was previously mentioned a messy and linear storm mode is favored, and the primary severe threat will quickly transition to damaging winds. Given low-level shear towards the evening hours from a strengthening LLJ, a tornado or two cannot be ruled out in a semi-discrete storm or a line segment.

FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Beyond Thursday, guidance continues to show persistent southwesterly mid/upper flow from a developing subtropical jet remaining over the central and southern plains this weekend and into early next week. Should sufficient moisture be in place, additional showers and storms may be possible through the beginning of next week. Best chances for more widespread showers and storms appear to be Sunday afternoon through Monday morning, but confidence in this part of the forecast remains fairly low. Continue to stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through at least the first 18 hours of the TAF period. Surface winds through the TAF period will stay out of the south and south-southwest. Speeds will generally be around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots at times. Low clouds are forecast to quickly move in from the south, and MVFR to IFR conditions will overspread much of the area late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds alongside above normal temperatures and low humidity will support very high grassland fire danger in areas west of K-14 during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.