textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Slight chance of showers in southern to southeast KS early Friday morning.

- Dry and mild conditions are expected through the weekend into early next week with possible rain chances returning late next week.

- Breezy southerly winds likely on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Current water vapor imagery shows upper-level ridging building into the Central Plains, resulting in northwesterly flow aloft. Additionally, an upper-level shortwave trough is moving onshore into central California. At the surface, low pressure sits over central Nebraska with a weak warm front draped down through central Kansas.

A weak shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains tonight into Friday morning, allowing mid-level to high clouds to settle into the area. There is a slight chance for rain showers to clip our area near the KS/OK border, but confidence is very low given the dry layer forecast in the low-levels. The better rain chances will stay south and southeast of our area in Oklahoma and Arkansas. Patchy fog is also possible in parts of central to southeast KS Friday morning given the small dewpoint depression and light winds. However, there is uncertainty with the fog potential as the mid to upper-level clouds could limit radiational cooling. High temperatures for Friday are a bit tricky as clouds are likely to linger especially in northeast KS with some breakage in clouds more likely in south- central KS. Highs are forecast to range from the 40s in central KS to the 50s in parts of south-central and southeast KS.

Another shortwave trough will move into the Central/Southern Plains Friday night with precipitation likely to stay northeast of our area. Following this shortwave, upper-level ridging is progged to amplify over the western CONUS, allowing heights to rise with increasing temperatures in western and central KS. High temperatures on Saturday will range from the upper 50s in central KS to the upper 40s in southeast KS.

On Sunday, a surface low will move into the Northern Plains, increasing the pressure gradient in the Central Plains. This will increase sustained winds to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph in central and south-central KS on Sunday. High temperatures will return to above normal with highs in the 50s and lower 60s on Sunday afternoon. The upper ridge will shift east on Sunday with flow aloft becoming more zonal early next week. Unseasonably warm temperatures are forecast to continue with most of the area seeing highs in the 60s to start next week. Rain chances may return late next week to the area, though confidence is not high at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Low clouds and fog has eroded across central and eastern Kansas from this morning. VFR conditions with light winds and high clouds streaming overhead will prevail through the much of the period. Low clouds look to expand back into the area for late tonight and early Friday morning. Could even see some fog try and redevelop over the same areas as this morning, however thicker high clouds could hinder the fog development.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.