textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms could affect central/south central Kansas late tonight with a strong storm or two with gusty winds possible.

- Severe storm potential Increasing for Monday afternoon and evening.

- Seasonable temperatures for Wednesday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1258 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Shortwave ridging was impacting the Central and Southern Plains early today under mostly cloudy conditions. This ridge axis will continue to translate eastward as we move through the day while a vigorous mid/upper trough was moving into the Central Great Basin area. A 100 kt jet evident on 12Z H25 objectively analyzed upper air maps was situated on the southeast periphery of the mid/upper trough extending downstream into the Central Rockies. This upper jet is progged to weaken as it translates eastward over the Central Rockies tonight while we see a considerable increase in the low-mid level (H85-H5) flow tonight and Monday as the mid/upper builds into the Rockies. A strong LLJ will transport moisture northward tonight supporting convection over the high plains as it propagates eastward during the predawn hours. Much if not all of this activity is expected to be elevated or rooted above the robust low level shear/buoyancy. As we move into the early morning hours (3am-10am), we could see some pockets of convection but much if not all of it is expected to be elevated in nature which may limit the threat for more substantial strong or severe storms. It will be hard to rule out surface based convection as we move into the early afternoon hours given unseasonable moisture in the pbl with dewpoints in the mid 60s as mid-lvl lapse rates begin to steepen with the approaching mid/upper trough and with the arrival of more robust large-scale forcing for ascent as the pv anomaly rotates into SW Kansas. The most likely time for sfc- based storms appears to arrive after 2-3 PM along an eastward advancing dryline in the vicinity of US 281 or between Hwy 14 and US 281. We continue to see considerable shear weighted in the lowest 2 KM with large streamwise vorticity in the cyclonically curved hodographs on point soundings in south central KS. If we can manage to see a few breaks in the elevated convection and introduce any sfc heating, there could be a window where sfc-based storms capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes may materialize in addition to large hail. The dryline is progged to be more of north to south oriented while the deep layer shear vectors are oriented southwesterly, so we could have a window where some discrete supercells are possible during the afternoon and early evening hours assuming we get enough heating for some increase in low-lvl buoyancy. Once again, the key thing will be the timing and amount of insolation which will determine how unstable the airmass becomes as we move through the afternoon hours. We eventually expect to see a line of storms driving eastward into eastern KS by early evening hours with damaging winds becoming the primary hazard before exiting by 10-11 PM or shortly thereafter.

Some post-frontal shower activity may linger overnight into Tuesday while a more stable post-frontal regime builds southward across the region into Wed. Seasonable temperatures are anticipated Wed-Thu with highs mostly in the 60s. Another compact and progressive shortwave trough may arrive across the area late Wed night into Thu bringing some increasing probabilities for showers.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Friday with seasonably mild temperatures and dry weather conditions anticipated.

As we move into the weekend, a clipper system is progged to dig across the Northern Plains driving a cold front southward over the area on Sat with some shower activity possible. We continue to see some differences in how this system will track leading to low confidence in precipitation chances while seasonable temperatures persist across the region.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1113 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Expecting low clouds to be around for the entire period so kept MVFR cigs at all locations. A round of storms are expected to enter the forecast area from west to east in the 6-9Z time frame. A few of these storms could be on the strong side and produce gusty winds and perhaps some small hail so will have to monitor their progression. Winds will be from the southeast and light at the start of the period but will increase to 20 to 30 knots towards the end.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.