textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and a few storms continuing to push east this morning.

- Gradual warm-up continues today with an even warmer weekend into next week. Temperatures around 100-105 degrees on Sunday & Monday area wide.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Challenges: Lingering rain chances through the day with residual cloud cover and its impact on temperatures

The bulk of the precipitation overnight has been over northern Kansas which has mainly shifted into the northeast quadrant. Activity to the south across southern Kansas has diminished pretty steadily with light accumulations if any for locations lucky enough to get under a shower. Precipitation should continue to push east through sunrise and potentially lingering into mid day in southeast Kansas as a subtle shortwave tracks southeast through the Central Plains. A brief period of heavy rain and possibly lightning would be the main hazards albeit if more robust activity stalls this could lead to additional localized flooding concerns. The respective longevity could keep temperatures lower especially in southeast Kansas similar to what occurred on Thursday which is why temperatures were dropped a few degrees from the NBM. Next the question is how quickly will the residual cloud cover clear out of south central Kansas today and what respective impact will that have on temperatures as well as heat indices. While the current forecast is for heat indices to reach around 105 specifically in Harper County, it was decided to hold off on any headlines given the uncertainty.

Precipitation chances (20-30%) were kept in for southeast Kansas through the evening hours, but the latest short term guidance suggests showers and storms should exit prior to 0Z/7PM with no additional development anticipated. There may be adjustments to remove these chances even quicker if this trend persists. The mid and upper ridge axis over the Mountain West/western CONUS pushes eastward into the central CONUS for the weekend resulting in a return of the heat. After a couple of days below seasonal normal temperatures, the streak will end with values closer to normal (lower 90s) today for all but mainly southeast Kansas. This is just a warm up for what the weekend into next week will bring with values around 100-105 degrees area wide on Sunday and Monday. Heat indices of 105 to 112 are forecast from Saturday to Tuesday. Wet bulb globe temperatures (WBGT) are in the highest category for this timeframe in many locations as well. HeatRisk indicates the major category which would affect anyone without cooling/hydration as well as health systems and industries; given the time of year, the probabilistic values for reaching extreme are primarily below 50%. Since the heat really starts Saturday afternoon, the decision was to allow the next shift to issue the headline(s). As a side climate note, overnight temperatures into early next week are forecast near record warm low values.

There are subtle short waves through the Plains late Sunday into Monday and again mid week. It is possible that this could bring precipitation chances especially in northern Kansas, but the current NBM forecast is around or below 20% for any rain chances for the rest of the period. A low pressure system tracks across central Canada on Wednesday reducing the amplification of the ridge and shifting it westward as the system deepens over Hudson Bay. This could set up a trough east of the Mississippi River for the late parts of next week into the weekend. If so, this could tame temperatures at least slightly.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 653 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Challenges: 1) LIFR and IFR conditions moving into central KS 2) Scattered showers and a isolated rumble of thunder

Fog has moved into north central Kansas this morning with gradual visibility reductions down to a few miles. Since it is daybreak, the thought is that this should diminish in the next couple of hours. Scattered showers will continue to track east this morning. Minimal lightning has been reported with the activity, so it was left as VCSH. This lingering activity will last the longest at CNU. Cloud cover should gradually dissipate through the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.