textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across central KS this morning with additional chances area-wide this afternoon

- Active weather pattern into early next week; widespread severe weather is not anticipated

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s/90s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge remains across the eastern CONUS with troughing from the Baja region through central high Plains. A midlevel shortwave trough was located from the TX Panhandle through west-central KS. This feature continues to result in numerous showers and thunderstorms from the TX Panhandle through eastern NE. Thus far, the bulk of rain showers and thunderstorms have remained west of I-135. This is likely to be case for the remainder of the nighttime hours. While severe weather is not anticipated, PW values up to 1.6" will support heavy rainfall.

The aforementioned midlevel shortwave trough is progged to slowly lift across western KS and into NE throughout the day today. The lack of mixed-layer inhibition combined with the large scale ascent should result in another afternoon of scattered thunderstorms with the greatest coverage across central KS. HREF mean surface based instability is forecast to approach 2000 J/kg across portions of central and south-central KS this afternoon. Midlevel winds remain quite weak (generally 25-30 kt) but sufficient veering will produce effective shear values up to 30 kt. As such, a few thunderstorms will have the potential to produce hail up to quarter size, wind gusts up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall.

Much of Friday is expected to remain dry as midlevel heights gradually increase. A northern stream shortwave trough will traverse the northern Plains Friday afternoon/evening. This will shunt a weak surface trough axis into northern KS by late afternoon. Increasing convergence along the front is likely result in thunderstorm development from portions of northern KS into NE/IA. Surface dew points near 70 across portions of central/northern KS will overlap midlevel lapse rates of 8-8.5 C/km, resulting in 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE Friday evening. Weak midlevel flow will limit effective shear to 20-30 kt. This overlap of instability, shear, and high PW environment will support hail up to golf ball size, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and heavy rainfall. The potential for an isolated severe storm or two is mainly confined to areas along/north of I- 70.

The greatest potential for widespread rainfall appears to arrive late Saturday through Sunday night as a slow moving shortwave trough glides from the southern high Plains through central and eastern KS. There remains some discrepancy with the exact track of the shortwave trough with the ECMWF lifting the trough from the TX Panhandle into west-central KS. The GFS/NAM have an eastern track and lift shortwave trough across eastern KS. This eastern track would confine the best rain chances to southeast KS. Model trends will need to be monitored over the next 24-36 hours. On the heels of the shortwave trough passage Sunday, a surface trough axis will deepen across the central/northern high Plains as a northern stream shortwave trough traverses the northern Rockies. Thunderstorms are likely to develop across northeast CO/southeast WY/western NE Sunday afternoon. A strengthening LLJ (30-40 kt) may allow for convection to grow upscale into an MCS Sunday evening and propagate east or southeast along an instability. There remains model spread where this instability gradient will develop and currently ranges from west- central NE through southeast NE (GFS) to southwest NE through east- central KS (ECMWF). Certainly something to keep an eye on over the coming days. A similar scenario may evolve late Monday into Tuesday with high Plains convection spreading east/southeast into the nighttime hours. Rain chances will begin to decrease towards the middle of next week as the midlevel ridge amplifies across the central Plains.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 553 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the upcoming TAF period. The first round is ongoing across portions of central and western KS and second round of isolated to scattered showers/storms is expected this afternoon across portions of central and south-central KS. Due to low confidence in storm coverage have opted for a prevailing VCSH from mid-morning through early evening with a PROB30 during the afternoon hours for -TSRA. Amendments may be needed later as confidence increases for -TSRA conditions. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at all sites late tonight into Friday morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.