textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief period of light wet snow is possible over central Kansas this morning(little to no accumulation expected). Strong northwest winds will affect much of the area today, wind advisory was expanded eastward with gusts around 45 mph for most locations

- Cold wind chills are expected early Sunday morning with readings dropping in the single digits

- First accumulating snowfall of the season looks to impact mainly central Kansas on Monday, with some light snow possible southward towards Wichita metro

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Colder air was spreading southward early this morning with snow falling across southern Nebraska/northern Kansas. A rain to wet snow transition is expected over central Kansas this morning as the colder air moves in, but loss of cloud ice looks to happen fairly quick therefore any snowfall would be brief(little to no snow accumulation expected). Winds will ramp up behind the cold frontal passage with favorable signal of deeper adiabatic mixing and strong surface pressure gradient magnitude pushing winds into the wind advisory level. Expanded the wind advisory eastward. Coldest air of the fall season will surge southward for today into tonight with wind chills dropping into the single digits by early Sunday morning. The cold airmass will be remain over the region through Monday. Meanwhile latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a weather system with associated strong upper jet energy diving southward off the coast-line of British Columbia. This will become the next weather maker for Kansas as it dives southward across the Rockies this weekend and ejects out into the central plains on Monday. Model ensemble probabilities for 1" or greater on first snowfall of the season increased a bit(yesterday was 30-50%, latest run is now 40-60%) with central Kansas having the better chances. Some lighter snow accumulations are still possible for locations southward towards the Wichita metro area. Stay tuned.

Dry weather looks to prevail for Wednesday through Friday, however some models are showing some moisture trying to work back northward on Thursday/Thursday night and will continue to watch that signal with late model runs. Models are in fairly good agreement showing more cold air pushing southward into Kansas during the day on Wednesday thus keeping daytime highs below normal for Wednesday/Thursday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1044 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

Cloud bases continue to slowly lower at all sites this evening with MVFR ceilings expected at all sites within the first several hours of this TAF period. Ceilings will rapidly lower early Saturday morning into IFR conditions. This is all thanks to an approaching area of low pressure that is currently across northwest Kansas. Ahead of this low some rain showers have begun to develop and showers are expected to expand in coverage as we go through the morning hours.

The other concern is LLWS for SLN, HUT, ICT, and CNU as winds about 1000 ft AGL are cranking around 50 kts out of the southwest while surface winds are mostly out of the southeast around 15 kts. As the surface low gets closer to the region it will shift the strongest winds aloft to the east so LLWS will come to an end from west to east through early Saturday morning. This low will also bring a strong cold front through the region Saturday morning switching winds around to the northwest and increasing sustained winds to 20-30 kts with gusts near 40 kts.

Behind the cold front, ceilings will slowly rise through the day with VFR conditions returning for all sites by the late afternoon. Winds will also slowly diminish towards the end of this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.