textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will be in place for Thursday through the weekend, with highs 10-20 degrees above normal. A few records will even be possible, especially for Friday and Saturday.

- Storm chances will return for Thursday and remain through the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains due to capping issues and low confidence on boundary placement.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a compact upper impulse tracking across the Pacific Northwest with upper ridging through the Rockies. Meanwhile, shortwave trough is tracking across the Eastern Great Lakes region. At the surface, high pressure stretches across the Northern and Central Plains with a weak stationary boundary from central AR into OK.

Shortwave energy will track over the Northern Rockies this evening as surface high quickly shifts east into the Mississippi Valley. This will setup good 850-700mb theta-e advection across the area late tonight. Still looking for a few showers/storms to develop after midnight, mainly across the Flint Hills into southeast KS, on the eastern edge of the better 850-700mb moisture transport. Even with an elevated parcel, there still looks to be enough capping to limit severe potential tonight.

For Thu, lee troughing will continue to strengthen which will allow for strong southerly winds with gusts in the 40-45 mph range likely for south central KS. This will also help keep strong low level moisture advection in place throughout the day. A series of weak upper perturbations are also forecast to slide across the area on Thu. The big question will be if we can get enough surface convergence to break the cap, allowing a storm or two to develop. It appears the most likely area for development will be just north and west of Wichita where a low level dry punch may briefly provide enough convergence to get a storm to develop. Also possible a few storms could develop in the deeply mixed environment just west of the dryline. If a storm is able to develop, there will be enough shear and instability for large hail. Another challenging forecast setting up for Friday with much of the same uncertainty as Thursday.

Westerly flow is anticipated across the Plains for Fri with the main upper low over southern MB and southwest Ontario. This setup will keep rich low level moisture in place across the eastern half of Kansas. Once again, the big question will be if there is enough surface focus to overcome warm mid level temps as there will be plenty of instability to work with. To makes things worse, there are quite a few differences on surface feature placement between models. GFS has the dryline and stationary front further east compared to the NAM and to a lesser degree the ECMWF. Current thinking is that the most likely areas for daytime development would be over western OK where a sharp dryline will be situated along with being closer to the southern stream jet max and across central and eastern Nebraska which will also be closer to better upper level forcing. Our forecast area is also where the weakest mid/upper level flow looks to be situated. Some elevated convection will be likely Fri night, with eastern KS into Mo having the higher chances.

By Sat morning, another upper shortwave will be moving into the Pacific Northwest and will continue to dig across the Northern Intermountain/Great Basin for Sat night into Sun morning. As this occurs, upper flow will become more southwesterly, keeping rich low level moisture across the area but also increasing mid level temps across the Southern Plains. So even though a dryline will be situated south of the forecast area in OK, development looks unlikely due to capping. The better storm chances on Sat will be further north along qusi-stationary front from southeast Nebraska into north-central KS. Shortwave trough will continue to swing across the northern Plains for Sun into Sun night with the highest storm chances likely north of the forecast area, closer to the better upper dynamics. Depending on the model, cold front will surge through the area Mon or Mon night with storm chances tied to it.

As far as temps go, still looking for highs around 10-20 degrees above normal for both Thu and Fri, with many locations along and northwest of the KS Turnpike in the 90s. Even though many of the temps will be warmer on Thursday, there will be better chances to set new max temp records on Fri. These hot readings will continue through the weekend with near record values also expected for both Sat and Sun.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 634 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Breezy east to southeast winds will gradually veer to a southerly direction as we move through the day on Thursday with gusts over 30 knots anticipated at times within a deeply mixed boundary layer. Winds will be highest in central KS. An isolated storm or two could develop along the a developing LLJ after 07-08Z. Maintained a mention in the CNU TAF but confidence remains to low further west into south central Kansas to mention at this time. Other isolated and high-based storms could develop over central KS on Thu afternoon along a developing dryline but confidence in coverage remains too low to mention at this time.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Still expecting very high grassland fire danger for both Thu and Sun for areas west of I-135.

Unseasonably hot temps on Thu will lower RH values to between 18-25% for locations west of I-135 with south winds gusting to 30-35 mph. This will elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category for Thu afternoon and early evening. These same general conditions are also anticipated for Sun afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.