textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty northwest winds will usher in cooler and drier air Tuesday.

- Mild and dry Thursday and Friday.

- Another storm system may arrive this weekend or early next week bringing low probabilities (20-40%) for a light wintry mix.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Fog, drizzle and scattered rain showers were ongoing early this afternoon under an upper level storm system moving slowly eastward across the area today. Under the mid/upper trough, steep mid-lvl lapse rates and some elevated CAPE in the ~500+ J/KG range is progged this afternoon. We could see a handful of thunderstorms across mainly southeast KS this afternoon. Some small hail may be possible with the strongest activity before the focus shifts east late this afternoon/early evening.

As the system exits the region tonight, we never scour out the residual low level moisture until we approach the predawn hours across southeast Kansas. Fog is expected to redevelop, especially over the Flint Hills and southeast KS before drier air is gradually advected into the area late in the period.

A robust cold front will arrive over the area early on Tuesday as the Clipper system moves into the Mississippi Valley area late in the period. Peak gusts in the 40 to perhaps 45 knot range may be possible at times in parts of central KS where a wind advisory may be hoisted. The airmass will dry out considerably but temperatures will only be slightly cooler and above average for late November.

Wed-Fri...A mid/upper trough is progged to move slowly eastward across the Great Lakes area while northwest mid/upper flow prevails upstream over the Central Plains. Some cooler air will arrive by midweek with moderating temperatures and dry weather anticipated late in the week. Highs in the 40s on Wed will climb into the 50s by Thu-Fri.

Sat-Sun...We continue to see some timing differences with the next trough which will have impacts on the weekend. The GFS tends to support the GEFS keeping a more robust trough out west while the ECMWF is much more progressive driving it eastward across the Central Plains during the weekend. The EPS appears to show some support for a slower scenario with mean H5 height anomalies further west leading to very low confidence in precipitation over the weekend. But other more subtle waves could bring some low probabilities for precipitation and low pops were maintained. Another push of cold air is expected by early next week which falls just outside the 7-day forecast and this could come with continued chances for wintry precipitation.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Low clouds will continue to linger over the entire area through the night along with some possible fog developing over southeast Kansas. This will keep poor aviation conditions in place through the night time hours. Meanwhile a frontal boundary will race southward across the region during the morning on Tuesday. This will result in clearing skies and increasing northwest winds, wind gusts up to 40 mph at times is possible.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.