textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures are expected this week with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Gusty southerly winds will result in very high grassland fire danger Tuesday through Wednesday.

- Rain chances will return mid to late in the work week with chances continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Currently, there is high pressure over the northern Plains with surface ridging extending into parts of the central Plains and the Middle Mississippi Valley. A surface low is over the Ohio Valley with a cold front stretched across into central Missouri and then transitions into a stationary front through central KS near the I-70 corridor. Lee troughing has increased resulting in breezy southerly winds in parts of central and south-central KS.

As we move into tonight and Tuesday morning, the aforementioned front will push farther south into southern Kansas before lifting north as a warm front by Tuesday afternoon. The next upper shortwave will move into the northwestern CONUS on Tuesday morning and into the Northern Plains on Tuesday afternoon. The associated surface low will move into southern Saskatchewan/northern Montana on Tuesday afternoon, increasing the pressure gradient in the northern and central Plains. As a result, gusty southerly winds are expected again on Tuesday with the strongest winds in central and south- central KS. High temperatures will be about 5 degrees warmer than normal for this time of year with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The upper shortwave will move into the northern Plains on Wednesday with a cold front extending down into the central Plains from its associated surface low. Breezy southerly winds are anticipated south of the front in our area and will advect some moisture back into the area. A few showers could be possible early Wednesday though better shower and storm chances are likely Wednesday night. Models are in decent agreement for the LLJ to set up over western/southwestern KS giving way for showers and storms to develop along or near the front on Wednesday night. A few strong to severe storms could be possible mainly in central KS where better instability will be combined with steep mid-level lapse rates and effective shear between 30-40 kts.

Another upper shortwave trough will move into the northern Plains on Thursday with a front progged to stall across northern KS. Given moisture will continue to be advected north and 700 mb WAA persisting, showers and storms are likely to develop on Thursday and Friday. A few strong to severe storms could be possible again given instability increasing across the area and effective shear around 30 kts.

A deeper upper trough will develop off the coast of California as we move towards this weekend. As the trough moves onshore, it is progged to become negatively tilted which could give way to more severe weather on Sunday and into early next week. Dewpoints are progged to increase into the upper 50s and lower 60s with PWATs over 1.25" (close to the maximum for this time of year), which may lead to meaningful rainfall. Additionally, strong instability is likely with efficient bulk shear and steep low- and mid-level lapse rates making severe weather chances likely. Forecast details will continue to be monitored and refined, stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1039 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Confidence is high in VFR conditions lasting through the end of the period at all sites.

Winds will continue to back to the east/northeast through the early morning before veering to the south by mid to late morning at all sites. Sustained speeds are expected to reside in the 15-18 kt range with the strongest values in central KS. These will continue through the end of the period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 6 2026

Breezy southerly winds, mild temperatures, and lower relative humidity will result in very high grassland fire danger for portions of central and south-central KS this afternoon and again on Wednesday during the afternoon hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.