textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Significant winter storm still set to impact the entire area early this evening through Sunday morning with heavy snow the main hazard.

- Dangerously cold wind chills today through Monday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Currently have a deep upper low centered over southeast Ontario with a much smaller upper low just west of Northern Baja. At the surface, Arctic air is starting to spill south across the Northern and Central Plains with temps across MN and SD currently in the -10 to -25 degree range. This frigid airmass will continue to push south this morning as northeast winds continue to increase.

Wind chill values this morning will continue to fall as cold advection persists, producing wind chills in the -10 to -15 degree range, especially over central KS. The warmest temperatures today will be during the morning hours, with falling temps throughout the day. Isentropic lift will start to ramp-up, generally near the 800-700mb levels with this lift first starting over western KS, and working its way east through the afternoon hours. With some fairly dry air to overcome in the low levels, it may take a bit longer to start than originally expected. So one of the changes from the previous forecast was to delay the onset of snow until around 21z for our western flank with most of the forecast area not seeing much until after 00z Sat. This first round of snow for tonight into Sat morning will be mostly related to prolonged isentropic lift and warm advection, with the better instability and banded snow potential staying to our south. In addition, most of central and eastern KS will be in the right entrance region of an impressive jet. With such a cold airmass in place, most of the saturation will be in the dendritic snow growth region, which should help snowfall rates tonight into Sat morning.

By 12z Sat, the upper low will be tracking across Baja with some additional upper energy diving south across the Great Basin and some more approaching the Northern Rockies. There remains some model agreement that we should see a decrease in snowfall for Sat afternoon as the stronger upper jet slides slightly east as does the stronger isentropic lift. However, there is a strong signal that snowfall will pick back up Sat night as the upper impulse over the Great Basin approaches the Southern Rockies and the low that was over Baja quickly moves into southwest TX. In addition, another strong upper jet will develop from Nebraska into Iowa and will once again place most of the forecast area in the right entrance region. So we are expecting another round of heavier snow Sat night into Sun morning, with the higher amounts along and especially southeast of the KS Turnpike. There is also some good model agreement in some mid level frontogenesis developing Sat night, for the Flint Hills into southeast KS which could enhance snowfall rates. As far as snowfall amounts go, didn't make many changes at all from what previous forecast had, with fairly widespread amounts in the 6-10 inch range with confidence increasing that southeast KS may have a better chance to see a bit more due to better banded snow potential.

Only far southeast KS is expected to still be seeing snow by 12z Sun with the better chances quickly pushing east of our forecast area. It's not out of the question we may see a quick burst of flurries or light snow Sun night as what is left of the upper trough swings through central KS. The dangerous wind chills will continue for tonight through Sat and will warm to just above zero during the day Sun. However, with low temps Mon morning bottoming out in the -5 to -10 range, wind chills area wide will once again fall to around -15 degrees.

We look to stay in northwest flow aloft through most of next week which will keep below normal temps in place with highs not expected to make it out of the 30s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Gusty northeast winds will prevail tonight as arctic air continues to build southward across the area. Ceilings will gradually lower as we move through the day on Friday with MVFR cigs likely as we move into the early evening hours. Snow is expected to develop after 22-23Z expanding in coverage across the area during the evening hours. MVFR and IFR will be likely as we move through the late evening and overnight hours on Friday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Storm Warning from noon today to noon CST Sunday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.