textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well-above average temperatures will continue through Saturday with colder readings expected on Sunday.

- Precipitation chances increasing Sunday morning through Monday morning with a wintry mix possible in central KS Sunday night to early Monday morning.

- Additional rain chances will be possible through much of the work week with the best chances likely Tuesday to Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows broad upper troughing over the southeastern CONUS with upper ridging over the western CONUS. There is a shortwave trough over Manitoba moving into Ontario. Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the Central Plains. A surface low has moved into Ontario with surface troughing extending down through the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Central Plains. In our area, breezy westerly winds and high temperatures in the 70s have led to Very High grassland fire danger mainly across south-central and southeast KS, which will diminish late this afternoon as winds weaken towards sunset.

Upper ridging will continue over the western CONUS keeping the northwesterly flow regime over our area tonight into the weekend. The upper trough over Ontario will deepen into Saturday, pushing a deep surface low into Quebec. A cold front will drape down from this low through the Ohio Valley and Middle Mississippi Valley into northeastern KS. Highs on Saturday will rise into the 70s before the cold front and colder air push farther south Saturday night. Southerly winds will bring some moisture into southeast KS on Saturday afternoon combined with WAA may result in a few isolated showers (under 15% chance) Saturday afternoon to evening. Low-level WAA will likely increase on Sunday aiding in additional precipitation chances Sunday morning through Sunday evening. There is still some uncertainty for surface temperatures on Sunday with the largest spread being in central KS. The GFS remains to be the coldest solution with highs near freezing in central KS while other guidance suggests temperatures in the upper 30s. Temperatures for south-central and southeast KS have better confidence in staying in the 40s. Given the warm nose well-above freezing and potential surface temperatures near freezing, it is possible for a wintry mix to develop mainly in central KS near I-70 on Sunday afternoon to evening. Uncertainty is high on precip type, but sleet and freezing rain look most likely for central KS. However, for south-central and southeast KS, rain showers are expected during the same timeframe. Travel impacts are expected to be low at this time with very little accumulation anticipated in central KS. This system is progged to start shifting east late Sunday night, reducing precip chances as we move towards Monday morning. Trends with this forecast will continue to be monitored, stay tuned!

As we move into early next week, flow aloft will become more zonal with embedded ripples ahead of the main shortwave trough. These ripples combined with low-level WAA may lead to additional rain chances on Monday afternoon to Monday night. An active pattern is forecast for the rest of the work week as the upper air pattern remains unsettled with a few shortwaves expected to move through the Central Plains. PWATs will rise well-above normal to climatology for this time of year with values above 1" in eastern KS making heavy rainfall possible. The best chances look to be for Tuesday into Wednesday, though there are discrepancies with ensemble probabilities on timing of rainfall. Stay tuned as this forecast will continue to be refined.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1051 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24hrs across central and southern Kansas with only some thin high clouds streaming overhead. Another weak frontal boundary is expected to drop southward across the region during the day on Saturday. This will cause the winds to increase a little bit ahead of the front over southeast Kansas and behind the front over central Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 320 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and increased westerly winds will lead to Very High grassland fire danger for a brief period this afternoon mainly across south-central to southeast KS. Critical fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not expected. Grassland fire danger is expected to decrease after Saturday as precipitation chances increase this weekend into next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.