textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild temperatures persisting through the next 7 days.

- Chance of rain late Friday night through early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Water vapor satellite and RAP 500 mb analysis early this afternoon shows mainly zonal upper flow across the central plains with a weak shortwave trough over northern Mexico, and a more vigorous deep layer trough approaching the California coastline. The presence of the system over northern Mexico is leading to some high cloud cover across the area, but any precipitation will stay well to the south today and Wednesday. Meanwhile, the system moving over California will be the one to track over the next few days for potential rain chances this weekend. Closer to home, a cold front pushed through the area this morning, and relatively cooler temperatures are filtering across the region in its wake. Still, afternoon highs today will be slightly above average for this time of year. Despite a couple more weak cold fronts sagging across the region between Wednesday and Friday, temperatures are anticipated to remain on the mild side for the time of year.

The aforementioned west coast trough will phase with another system embedded within the subtropical jet stream and beginning progressing eastward late this week into the weekend. Mid-range global deterministic and ensemble models continue to disagree about the progression of this shortwave trough. The ECMWF/EPS continues to show a weaker, progressive open wave that quickly skates across the southern plains Friday and Saturday resulting in a drier solution for the forecast area. It's possible with this solution that much of central and southern Kansas don't much rain at all! In contrast, the GFS/GEFS continue to show a stronger closed system that moves slower across the southern plains which results in a wetter solution of the forecast area. That being said, trends in the GFS/GEFS over the past couple of runs are for the system to take a more southerly track. Should this occur, it would prevent ideal moisture and upper level diffluence from overspreading Kansas. As a result of the recent trends in guidance, both rain chances and total QPF from Friday night through Sunday morning have been decreased. Further decreases in both rain chances and QPF will likely be needed in future forecasts should trends continue.

After Sunday, long range models continue to show a strong signal for potent mid/upper ridging overspreading the central plains. This will support above average temperatures across the central portions of the CONUS. Should rainfall be on the lighter side this weekend, there's also a fairly good signal for fire weather concerns heading into the beginning of next week as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 541 PM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Surface high pressure will continue to settle over the region tonight into Wed morning and gradually shift east by Wed afternoon. Winds will remain generally light out of the north and northeast tonight and eventually come around to the southeast by Wed afternoon, but will stay on the light side. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

THIS AFTERNOON...Stout/gusty north winds in wake of a cold front moving south may support lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger areawide. Cooler temperatures though will prevent Red Flag/critical fire danger.

NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY...A return to well above average temperatures looks probable by early next week, along with the potential for stout/gusty south winds. This combination should support a return to elevated grassland fire danger.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.