textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures and gusty northerly winds will prevail for today.

- Very High to Extreme Fire Danger is expected for Thursday afternoon with strong southwest winds and warmer temperatures.

- Warm and dry conditions are expected through Saturday, with another cool down and isolated precip chances for Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Currently, the upper level trough axis extends across the High Plains with the surface low situated over the Great Lakes region. A corresponding frontal boundary is draped from Michigan into the Southern Plains. For us, much cooler air has filtered into the region behind the front with brisk north-northwesterly winds. A few showers still linger across far eastern Kansas with mostly cloudy skies for south-central and southeast Kansas. As the frontal boundary pushes eastward through the day, rain and clouds will clear from west to east. Some sunshine is expected later this afternoon and temperatures will reach only into the lower 50s for most. Winds will stay breezy through the day with gusts between 30-35 mph possible. For locations that did not see rain last night, specifically across central Kansas, the gusty winds and dry conditions will lead to areas of Very High Fire Danger. Though, the cooler temperatures may help to limit fire concerns some.

For Thursday, the trough will race quickly off to the east and strong northwesterly flow will set up over the region. Increasing heights and strong WAA will allow for temperatures to warm into the 60s and close to 70 degrees in central Kansas. A strengthening low pressure system in the Northern Plains will create a tight pressure gradient against the surface high to our south. This will lead to strong southwesterly winds areawide with gusts between 35-45 mph during the afternoon. These conditions will lead to widespread Very High to Extreme Fire Danger, especially across central and south- central Kansas where a Red Flag Warning has been issued.

For Friday and Saturday, ridging will continue to build in supporting a quiet weather pattern with a corresponding warm-up. Temperatures on Friday will reach into the 60s for most with temperatures on Saturday topping out in the lower to middle 70s. Mostly clear skies and dry conditions are expected. By Sunday, a rapidly deepening trough will dig into the Plains bringing with it light rain and snow chances for the day Sunday. Temperatures will fall in the wake of this system with highs on Sunday and Monday falling below normal once again. With spring on our doorstep, these cool downs will continue to be shorter lived and as such, temperatures will rebound back above normal by mid next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Visible satellite continues to show slowly dissipating lower clouds which should lead to an improvement to VFR conditions for all TAF sites within the next hour or so. Once these marginal conditions improve expect mostly clear skies to prevail through the TAF period. Strong NW winds will continue today as the cold air continues to move in but will decrease by early evening and become southwesterly by tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Very high fire danger will continue to affect central Kansas this afternoon with gusty northerly winds and dry air. Thursday remains the day of focus for dangerous fire weather conditions. Very strong southwest winds, warm temperatures, and low RH values will create Very High to Extreme Fire Danger across central and south-central Kansas. Sustained southwest winds between 25 to 35 mph and gusts up to 45 mph will impact the area. Despite recent rains across portions of the area, the warmer temperatures and gusty winds can dry out fuels quickly. The Fire Weather Watch has been upgraded to a Fire Weather Warning and is in effect from noon till 8pm tomorrow. Any fires that develop tomorrow afternoon will have the potential to spread quickly and behave erratically.

We could see very high fire danger again for Sunday afternoon with strong northerly winds, however that fire weather risk will depend on the arrival time of colder air and any potential precipitation. If the colder air moves in sooner or if widespread showers materialize, this could lower the fire weather risk.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033- 047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.