textproduct: Wichita

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Scattered showers and storms continue across southern Kansas this morning. This activity exists in a region of ample elevated instability and shear, around 2000 J/kg and 35 knots based on SPC mesoanalysis this morning. This activity should continue to spread into southeast Kansas and could linger across the far southeast portions of the state until early this afternoon. The main concerns with storms this morning is the potential for large hail up to quarter size, and locally heavy rainfall thanks to PWATs around 1 inch. As we go later into today, the main story will be cool and damp conditions persisting for much of the day. There will be a brief opportunity for locations west of I-135 to break out of the low clouds late this afternoon, but this will be relatively short lived as clouds are likely to set in after sunset.

As of early this morning, the next system to impact the region is beginning to come onshore across northern California and the PNW. This deep layer trough is forecast to be over the Rockies by Thursday afternoon and evening, and it will serve as the catalyst for a couple of rounds of strong to severe storms across the forecast area from late Thursday night through early Saturday. Throughout the day on Thursday, fairly robust surface pressure falls across the High Plains in response to increasing flow over the Rockies will aid in increasing southerly low level flow that should pull ample moisture northward throughout the day. Guidance continues to suggest that a subtle lead shortwave trough will provide just enough synoptic lift to help trigger storms across TX/OK Panhandles Thursday evening. Should these storms develop and congeal into a cluster, they would likely arrive into the forecast area after midnight Thursday night into Friday morning. Most likely, these storms will be elevated by the time they arrive; however, shear and instability will be supportive of strong to severe storms with hail up to quarter size and wind gusts around 55 to 65 mph possible. There are some lingering questions about how quick atmospheric recovery will be in the wake of Friday morning's storms. With that being said, mid-range guidance remains fairly confident that robust southerly low-level flow should help the environment recover. By Friday afternoon, conditions will be primed for another round of strong to severe storms across the forecast area. Details on how this activity evolves Friday evening and night remain a bit fuzzy. This is mainly due to the likelihood of poor low-level lapse rates and a linear storm mode. However, as things stand, the potential exists for large hail and damaging wind gusts with storms Friday evening and night. A linear storm mode and poor low-level lapse rates would likely put a lid on the tornado risk; however, it remains a non-zero risk at this time, especially if a storm is still discrete when the low-level jet ramps up Friday evening.

A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend. However, mid to long range guidance suggests another round of active weather is increasingly likely towards the beginning of next week. Details are difficult to pin down in the day 6-8 time frame, so be sure to stay turned for updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 516 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Active weather to continue through much of the TAF period.

A cluster of showers and storms continues its trek across southern and southeast Kansas. This activity should continue to move eastward through the morning and early afternoon hours, though some locations across far southeast Kansas may continues to see off and on showers and storms through much of the day. Small hail and locally heavy rainfall are the main concerns.

Elsewhere, patchy drizzle and fog along with low ceilings are supporting MVFR to LIFR conditions across portions of central Kansas this morning. Drizzle and fog will gradually mix out this morning, but low clouds are anticipated to linger into this afternoon. There is a brief window of opportunity for a break in cloud cover west of I-135 this afternoon, but low clouds should return after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 337 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will result in a very high fire danger over parts of central Kansas both Thursday and Friday afternoon. However, rainfall is expected to preclude more widespread fire weather concerns. A very high fire danger may return on Monday as breezy southerly winds return to the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.