textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chance for on-and-off showers/thunderstorms Wednesday night through about Saturday night. A few bouts of strong to severe thunderstorms are possible during this time.

- Modest warming trend through late week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...Similar to the past few days, cannot rule out a stray shower/storm across far eastern Kansas this afternoon-evening, amidst slightly cooler temperatures aloft and richer low-level moisture. Chances are quite low, so did not include mention in the forecast. Otherwise, building upper ridging will support dry weather across the forecast area tonight through Wednesday.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT--SATURDAY NIGHT...As we head into mid-late week, the upper ridge is expected to flatten some as a few shortwaves traverse the western and central CONUS. This should allow a frontal zone to ooze south into Mid-America, setting the stage for off-and-on thunderstorm chances across the region Wednesday night through about Saturday night. Wednesday night chances are highest over generally the northern half of Kansas. Thunderstorm chances thereafter will be tied to the magnitude and coverage of the previous night's storms, which will play a direct role in associated outflow boundary placement. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely during this period, weak to modest shear combined with seasonable buoyancy may support a few severe thunderstorms. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a rather anomalous upper ridge building across the central and western CONUS. If this forecast verifies, it would likely support a prolonged period of mostly dry weather. Of note though...the last few runs of the ECMWF has indicated a weakness on the southern periphery of the ridge (i.e. right over the central and southern Plains). If this weakness verifies, we could be looking at spotty hit-or-miss showers/storms at times Sunday through mid next week, mainly during the afternoon-evening hours.

TEMPERATURES:

TODAY--SATURDAY...A slight warming trend is expected for Wednesday and Thursday, although temperatures will likely be no more than about 5 degrees warmer than average. The highest heat indices are forecast on Thursday over southern and southeast KS, when/where a few locations could touch 105. However, if Wednesday night thunderstorms surge a strong outflow boundary south, Thursday temperatures would likely end up being cooler than forecast, with the exception of far southern KS. A frontal boundary draped across the region should support an ever-so-slight cool down Friday and Saturday, before another warming trend commences.

SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a rather anomalous upper ridge building across the central and western CONUS. If this forecast verifies, it would likely support a prolonged period of above average temperatures and mostly dry weather. Of note though...the last few runs of the ECMWF has indicated a weakness on the southern periphery of the ridge (i.e. right over the central and southern Plains). If this weakness verifies, temperatures may end up being a bit cooler than forecast (closer to seasonal averages).

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 626 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Quiet VFR conditions will prevail the next 24 hours. The only caveat may be this morning before 14-15z at CNU where intermittent and patchy 3-5 mile visibilities in BR are possible.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.