textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain probabilities continue to increase late Wednesday night through Thursday areawide.

- Potential is increasing for light to modest snow accumulations Friday afternoon through night, especially over central Kansas.

- Well above average temperatures through Thursday, cooling back closer to normal or slightly below normal by Thursday night and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 201 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

RAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT--THURSDAY:

The latest deterministic and ensemble consensus has increased meaningful rain chances late Wednesday night through Thursday, as a "lead" shortwave ahead of a deepening western CONUS trough races northeast over the region, and interacts with a sharpening frontal zone and unseasonably rich precipitable waters. NBM 50th percentile progs support the best potential for one-half to three-quarters of an inch of rainfall generally along/east of I-135, with localized amounts over one inch possible per 90th percentile progs. Could even see a few embedded thunderstorms over southern and southeast Kansas, with MUCAPE progs up to around 300-500 J/kg, although severe thunderstorms are not expected.

SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON--NIGHT:

For Friday afternoon and night...as the parent upper trough ejects east onto the Plains and colder air advects in from the north, the latest deterministic and ensemble consensus supports increased potential for light to modest accumulating snow, mainly along/north of Highway 50. Chances have continued to increase and model solutions appear to be "tightening up" on a relatively common solution supporting a generally swath of 1-3 inches, although there certainly is remaining uncertainty on amplitude/strength and location of the ejecting upper trough. Additionally, the potential for marginal low-level thermal fields and relatively warm ground temperatures could reduce snow accumulations, especially in the presence of lower snowfall rates. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Fast quasi-zonal flow aloft will keep polar and Arctic air bottled up well north of the region the next several days, supporting continued well above average temperatures through Thursday. Low- level thickness values support highs mostly in the 60s, with overnight lows in the 30s-40s, and low 50s over southern-southeast Kansas Wednesday night. Average highs this time of year are in the low-mid 40s, and average lows are in the low-mid 20s.

By Thursday night and persisting through Sunday, a cold front is slated to cool temperatures back closer to normal, or even slightly below normal, with breezy northwest winds supporting chilly wind chills as well.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 516 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. Light west/southwest winds will become southerly overnight and strengthen by mid/late morning. Current guidance suggests sustained speeds in the 12-15 kt range during the afternoon hours as clouds around 20 kft fill in throughout the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.