textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures, breezy winds and dry conditions will continue into early next week.

- Shower and storm chances are likely to return next week with periodic chances possible from Tuesday evening to Thursday night.

- More seasonable temperatures are forecast to return mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

An upper level trough is currently digging into the northwestern/western CONUS with ridging over the Plains into the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS. The remnants of Hurricane Isaias is over the southeastern US and will slowly propagate northeast. At the surface, there is a low over the Northern Plains with surface troughing extending down into the High Plains. Lee troughing has increased, strengthening the pressure gradient over our area, leading to breezy southerly winds especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. These breezy conditions will persist through Monday as the upper trough continues to dig into the western CONUS leading to an increased pressure gradient from lee troughing remaining over our area. Sustained winds will be between 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph each day especially in central and south-central KS. Well above normal high temperatures are forecast through Tuesday as increased thickness and above normal 850 mb temperatures persist. Highs are expected to be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with the warmest days being Monday and Tuesday.

A pattern change is likely to start on Tuesday afternoon-Tuesday night as the aforementioned upper trough over the western CONUS propagates east and approaches the Rockies into Wednesday. This trough will bring the next round of shower and storm chances to the region especially as a cold front is expected to push south through the central Plains into Kansas by Tuesday morning. These rain chances will be possible from Tuesday evening to Thursday before the trough continues to slide east on Friday, though the ECMWF has a slower solution where it keeps the trough in the Rockies through Friday leading to some uncertainty on rain chances into next weekend. Strong to severe storms may be possible with this activity as effective wind shear increases combined with ample instability and forcing from the trough and cold front. Heavy rainfall appears likely as well as PWATs approach 2" (greater than the maximum for this time of year) across our area. Details on timing, location and impacts will continue to be refined as we get closer.

From mid to late week, temperatures are forecast to become more seasonable as highs return to the 70s. Moving into next weekend, confidence is very low on temperatures as there is a large spread in guidance. The ECMWF depicts upper ridging to be over the Plains with highs in the 60s and lows in the 50s, whereas the GFS has a deep upper trough over the region with highs in the 40s and lows in the 30s or potentially colder... Stay tuned!

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1058 PM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

Breezy southerly winds will persist across much of the area tonight, however winds above the surface at approximately 1500 ft AGL will remain around 45kts leading to low-level wind shear into early Sunday morning across central and south central Kansas. Southerly surface winds will become breezy once again late tomorrow morning at all TAF sites and persist through the afternoon hours. Some gusts over 30 knots are likely.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.