textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers with a few embedded thunderstorms today through early Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall possible, but severe weather not expected.

- Another uptick in off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances Tuesday through next week's end.

- Below average temperatures today, with a gradually warming trend starting Friday and persisting through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 222 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

A rather messy pattern is setting up the next several days, with off- and-on rain/thunderstorm chances across the region, in response to periodic shortwaves influencing the region amidst seasonably high precipitable waters. However, the overall predictability is low regarding exactly where the highest rain chances will be each day given the saturated mid-levels and mostly weak to modest forcing.

For today--tonight, thinking highest chances will be mainly over far southern and southeast Kansas, as a rich plume of mid-level moisture streams northward underneath the right entrance region of a stout upper jet. It's here where short-term guidance consensus favors the greatest potential for rainfall amounts up to around 0.50 to 1 inch through tonight , with locally higher amounts possible. Limited buoyancy and shear should prevent strong or severe storms.

For Friday--Friday night, after morning showers over far eastern and southeast KS, thinking the best chances will shift into central KS during the afternoon, and possibly into south-central and southeast KS Friday night, as a weak cold front approaches from the west- northwest. Higher buoyancy and somewhat better shear may support a few strong thunderstorms Friday afternoon and evening, but severe weather appears unlikely, with the greatest potential being locally heavy rain.

For Saturday--Saturday night, these hit-or-miss rain/thunderstorm chances will continue, especially south of Interstate 70, as another shortwave traverses the Central Plains. Similar to Friday, modest buoyancy coupled with weak shear may support a few strong thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, along with locally heavy rain.

For Sunday--Monday, while a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms can't be ruled out over especially southeast Kansas, shortwave ridging should keep precipitation chances rather low for most areas.

For Tuesday through week's end, deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to favor another uptick in off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances across the region, as various shortwaves eject onto Mid- America ahead of deepening western CONUS upper troughing. Rather weak mid-upper flow coupled with modest to strong buoyancy may support a few strong thunderstorms during this time, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

Continued below average temperatures mostly in the 60s are likely across the region today, with a modest warmup into the 70s Friday and Saturday. Increasing upper ridging along with modest low-level southerly flow will support seasonably warm daytime temperatures in the 80s Sunday through next week, with overnight lows in the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu May 21 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings will gradually expand north-northwest across the region today through this evening, as low-level moisture continues to increase. Additionally, off-and-on showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be smattered across central and eastern Kansas today through tonight. The main hazards will be brief heavy rain and associated brief reductions in visibility.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.