textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms possible this evening and tonight over south-central and southeast KS. - Elevated grassfire danger continue through the early evening hours.

- Active weather pattern continues late Wednesday, and again late Friday, with additional rounds of showers/thunderstorms expected. Severe thunderstorms and localized flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Currently, a shallow upper-level trough is traversing the northern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, an elongated low pressure extends from the Great Lakes region into the Central Plains. This feature is dragging a frontal boundary across the state this afternoon. Progression of this front is quicker than previously thought, already turning winds northerly in central Kansas and ushering in cooler temperatures. As such, afternoon highs have been lowered slightly for south-central Kansas, though temperatures look to still reach into the middle 80s across far southern and southeast Kansas. We're seeing gusty southwesterly winds ahead of the frontal boundary to 35 mph across south-central and southeastern Kansas. Behind the front, northerly winds are gusting to 35 mph in central Kansas. A few showers/storms will develop along the front this evening with initiation around 00Z. Because the front is advancing more quickly, rain and storms look to fire along a line southeast of the Turnpike. Activity will continue into the early overnight hours across southeast Kansas before exiting the forecast area to the southeast. Severe weather is not expected as overall forcing is not strong with this front. But modest shear and decent CAPE values along the boundary will support a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail.

For Wednesday, the frontal boundary will stall across our area. This will create quite the temperature disparity across the forecast area with temperatures near 80s along the KS/OK border with highs in the 60s in central Kansas. As we move into the afternoon hours a dryline to the west will begin to march eastward just as a potent shortwave begins to lift into the Central Plains. The resulting lee trough will push east across the state through the evening hours. Convection will initially develop along the dryline as semi discrete cells across south-central Kansas. These initial storms will pose a large hail and wind threat, along with the potential for a few isolated tornadoes. The elongated hodographs indicate that with time, storms will evolve into a broken line extending north to south. These storms will then pose primarily a wind threat, with isolated large hail and tornado threat continuing. With above normal PWATs between 1-1.5 inches, heavy rainfall and localized flooding will also be a concern, especially across southeast Kansas. Storms will diminish and shift out of the forecast area generally between 06-09Z. Then, temperatures for Thursday will remain slightly above normal, but cooler than the previous few days, in the post-frontal air mass with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s.

Brief clearing ahead of the next system and subtle ridging on Friday will allow for temperatures to rebound to slightly above normal with highs reaching into the 70s and lower 80s. The next trough will swing across the central U.S. late Friday and into the weekend. Another surface low will eject off the Central Rockies by midday Friday dragging with it a frontal boundary that will initiate another round of showers and thunderstorms for Friday evening through early Saturday morning. Surface based CAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg and modest shear will support additional severe thunderstorm activity. Once again, initial storm mode looks to be discrete cells, then merging into a line of storms that pushes east with the cold front. Model guidance currently indicates that this activity will focus across eastern Kansas, with our central Kansas counties likely missing out once again.

Behind this deeper, more potent trough, much cooler temperatures are expected for this upcoming weekend with highs reaching only into the 60s areawide. Then ridging will begin to build in over the central part of the U.S. by early week allowing for a modest warm-up through mid-week with highs reaching into the lower to middle 70s under mostly clear skies.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1152 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

The cold front is currently making its way through the CWA and should be making its way through ICT at just about TAF issuance time. Winds will be gusty from the northwest gradually becoming more north easterly throughout the evening. Isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop around 00Z over southeast Kansas and will most likely impact CNU before moving off to the east. The front should make it through CNU soon thereafter with winds gradually becoming more easterly towards morning. There is an outside chance a storm may develop close enough to impact ICT but confidence is low for this scenario so have left out of the TAF. The switch to easterly flow looks to bring in MVFR cigs by around 12Z and could possibly decrease to IFR for ICT and HUT soon thereafter.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 314 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Strong southerly winds continue across far southern and southeast Kansas ahead of a cold frontal boundary. Behind the front, winds are gusting to 35 mph out of the north. Breezy winds and warm temperatures support Very High fire danger today. RH values remain in the 30-40% range and may help to mitigate fire weather concerns.

Very High fire weather danger looks to return for Friday and Saturday, primarily across central and south-central Kansas, as recent rainfall across eastern Kansas will help to alleviate fire weather concerns temporarily.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.