textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures and breezy south winds will continue through about mid next week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are likely to return by Tuesday or Tuesday night, and persist into late next week.

- A cool down closer to seasonable or even below normal temperatures is likely by late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 AM CDT Sat Oct 10 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

The remnants of Hurricane Isaias over the SE CONUS will continue to phase with a meandering upper low over the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley today, with widespread precipitation associated with these features remaining well east of the forecast area.

Chances for off-and-on rain/thunderstorms across the forecast area enter back into the forecast by Tuesday or Tuesday night and persist through week's end, as a cold front approaches from the northwest and a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Increasing shear coupled with modest instability and strong forcing may support a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms during this time period. Additionally, well above average precipitable waters may support heavy rainfall.

The latest model guidance has diverged from their recent consensus, with the GFS and Canadian models much more progressive with this system, clearing precipitation by Thursday afternoon. In contrast, the much slower ECMWF lingers precipitation chances possibly as late as Saturday. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

Above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through about mid next week. Daytime temperatures a few degrees either side of 90 degrees look probable, especially through Monday or Tuesday. Additionally, stout south to southwest winds should gust upwards of 30-35 mph through Monday, owing to deep and persistent low pressure to the west-northwest of the region. Increased sustained speeds a bit from NBM today through Monday.

As we head into Thursday or Friday of next week, model consensus supports a potentially drastic cool down in wake of the aforementioned storm system, as stout Canadian high pressure settles southeast into Mid-America. The latest GFS and Canadian models support a deeper central to eastern CONUS upper trough and associated cooler temperatures compared to the somewhat warmer ECMWF. For now, ran with daytime highs mostly in the 60s-70s Friday and Saturday with lows in the 40s-50s, although this period could turn out to be cooler than currently forecast (e.g. GFS has highs in the 40s Saturday!)...stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Breezy south to southwest winds will persist across central KS tonight with an occasional gust over 20 knots possible at times. Winds will increase on Saturday with some 30 knot gusts possible at times in central KS. VFR will prevail through the upcoming 24-hr period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.