textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms this afternoon through the overnight hours with a few severe storms possible along with heavy rain and associated flooding.

- Another round of storms Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with heavy rain and flooding the main threat.

- Much cooler air for Friday through Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s with frost likely across central KS.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 156 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Currently have a deep upper trough centered over southern NV and extending through the Desert Southwest. Meanwhile an upper ridge remains over the Gulf Coast of TX/LA. At the surface, strong cold front currently stretches from near Kansas City to near Topeka and near Hutchinson, with a loosely defined dryline extending south from around Dodge City.

A few elevated storms develop early this afternoon near Dodge City as better upper diffluence starts to move-in along with a surge of higher 850mb dew points. Still looking for additional development later this afternoon along the front as it pushes south with activity expanding in coverage early this evening as low level jet ramps-up and enhancing lift along and especially north of the surface front. As the evening progresses, right entrance region of upper jet will also become more defined across central KS further enhancing lift and associated storm coverage. Unseasonably high PW values around 2 inches will allow any of the stronger showers or storms to produce high rainfall rates and potential flooding tonight into early Wed morning. In addition, even elevated storms will have over 1500J/kg of CAPE to work with along with 35-40kts of effective shear which should be enough to get some hail.

By late Wed morning, deep upper low will be tracking across the Four Corners region with strong upper diffluence remaining over the area along with a broad area of mid level theta-e advection. This will keep at least some sct showers and storms around on Wed. We are still expecting another round of more concentrated showers and storms Wed evening through early Thu morning as another jet max lifts northeast out of the TX Panhandle with the main response another low level jet surging into southern KS. This setup should bring another round of heavy rain Wed night, with the Flint Hills into southeast KS having the higher chances for heavy rain and flooding.

Northern stream shortwave is expected to track out of Southern Saskatchewan across the Northern Plains Wed night into Thu morning and into the Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley by Thu evening. This will help to quickly push the upper impulse east and at the same time shear it out. So by late Thu afternoon, only southeast KS will still be seeing rainfall chances with the cold front quickly surging south across the Southern Plains. Surface high pressure will quickly slide across the Plains on Fri into Fri night providing widespread fall temps. Highs on Fri are only expected to reach the upper 50s to around 60 degrees with widespread lows in the 30s Sat morning. This will lead to fairly widespread frost across central KS Sat morning. We will quickly get back into some warm advection for Sun into Mon as the surface high shifts east.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 602 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms were impacting south central Kansas this evening along and behind a southeastward advancing cold front. The storm activity may become more numerous this evening behind the front as the low level jet noses into south central Kansas. Widespread reduced flight categories are likely within the storm activity while low clouds MVFR and some IFR will gradually develop in the wake of the front. Gusty southerly winds will shift to the northeast around 15 knots in the wake of the front although strong winds gusts will remain possible in and near thunderstorm activity. Periodic showers and thunderstorms will linger across the area on Wed into early Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ051>053-067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100.