textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A stray thunderstorm possible late this afternoon and evening across central KS

- Shower and thunderstorms chances are forecast to increase Tuesday afternoon with periodic rounds of showers and storms lingering through next weekend.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As of 1 PM Sunday afternoon, quasi-zonal midlevel flow present across the central and northern Plains. An area of surface high pressure encompasses much of eastern KS into the MS Valley. This area of high pressure was resulting in sunny skies and light winds across much of the forecast area. A lee surface trough was gradually deepening across the central and northern high Plains. This continues to gradually tighten the surface pressure gradient across portions of central and western KS where southerly winds are gusting near 20 mph. The actual surface trough axis is positioned from south- central SD through northwest KS. Weak convergence along the trough axis this afternoon may be sufficient for isolated thunderstorm development. With this convection being diurnally driven, it's unlikely any convection reaches Russell or Barton counties this afternoon or evening (10-15% chance for rain). Transitioning into tonight, the aforementioned surface high pressure area will remain across portions of south-central and southeast KS. Small dew point depressions, light winds, and mostly clear skies may result in patchy fog formations Monday morning.

A similar thunderstorm setup is expected Monday afternoon and evening with diurnally driven convection possible along the trough axis across western KS. The lack of large scale forcing for ascent to propagate convection eastward should keep convection across western KS. Rain chances will increase Tuesday afternoon and evening as a weak perturbation propagates north from the ArkLaTex region into eastern KS and western MO. PW values are forecast to increase to 1.5- 1.75" across eastern KS. Weak midlevel lapse rates of 5.5-6 C/km will limit instability values to 500-1000 J/kg. Midlevel winds remain quite weak at 20 kt or less, mitigating any threat for severe storms. This tropical- like airmass will remain across the area through the remainder of the week. Weak midlevel perturbations are progged by GFS/ECMWF to slowly propagate across the region daily (Wednesday through at least Saturday) with the strongest shortwave trough Thursday into Friday. This should support daily rain chances will the potential for widespread beneficial rainfall. Midlevel ridging will amplify across southwest US by Sunday with the midlevel flow becoming northwest across the central Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Southerly winds at 8-15 kt will overspread terminals throughout the afternoon. An isolated storm cannot be entirely ruled out (10-15% change) near RSL and GBD through 01Z but the best chances will remain west of the terminals.Marginal LLWS conditions are possible at GBD and RSL overnight but magnitudes are forecast to remain less than 30 kt. Patchy ground fog is possible near CNU and ICT but confidence in VSBY impacts are too low for mention at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.