textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonable temperatures over the next week (upper 70s to lower 80s)

- Widespread rainfall through Thursday; highest rainfall amounts expected across portions of central KS and southeast KS - Flood Watch for Lincoln/Russell counties

- A few severe storms cannot be ruled out Wednesday afternoon across portions of central and south-central KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

As of 2 PM Tuesday afternoon, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are ongoing across the central portions of KS. These showers and thunderstorms are primarily due to a lead, midlevel shortwave trough lifting through eastern CO/western KS. A tropical airmass continues to advect into the region with PW values approach 2", especially across central and south-central KS. Thus far, hourly rainfall rates have ranged from 0.25-0.75". Unless we see an uptick in convective elements within this broad precipitation shield, these rates should hold throughout the afternoon hours. As the shortwave trough lifts into NE later this afternoon/evening, weak subsidence in its wake should decrease coverage of shower/storm activity, at least briefly.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the nighttime hours Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as strong low/midlevel WAA overlap with increasing midlevel height falls. Latest CAM and global guidance has slightly shifted the heaviest axis of rainfall southeast and may encompass more of central KS. The abnormally moist airmass will continue to support heavy rainfall with rates exceeding 1" per hour possible, especially with any convective elements. The main midlevel low will eject into the central Plains Wednesday afternoon with continued rounds of heavy rainfall as chances spread eastwards into southeast KS. In fact, the potential for a few severe storms will increase Wednesday afternoon across central and south- central KS. A Pacific front/dryline will progress across the area during the afternoon hours. The prefrontal environment will remain very moist with lapse rates up to 7 C/km resulting in instability of 500-1000 J/kg. Shear, on the other hand, will be quite impressive with long, veering hodographs throughout the profile (~40 kt of effective shear). Should this environment emerge, a few supercells would become likely with large hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes possible.

Strong midlevel height falls combined with right exit jet dynamics should support widespread rainfall late Wednesday into Thursday morning. This axis should setup across portions eastern OK into eastern KS. As the midlevel low/trough slides through the area late Thursday into Thursday night, deformation precipitation will progress through the entire area. The greatest rain totals are still forecast to remain across portions of central and southeast KS. Widespread totals up to 3" with locally higher amounts are expected. The Flood Watch remains unchanged although short term trends will need to be monitored for an expansion towards the I-135 corridor.

For Friday and beyond, midlevel heights will increase as western CONUS ridge axis builds into the Plains. This should yield drier conditions but seasonable temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Widespread -SHRA and occasional -TSRA will continue across much of central and south-central KS through the afternoon hours. Brief reductions of VSBY to near 1SM are expected with the heaviest rainfall. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the afternoon and evening hours. -SHRA will continue across at least central KS overnight as CIGS fall to MVFR. Coverage of -SHRA will decrease across south-central KS but at carried VCSH at HUT and ICT for isolated -SHRA continuing. These conditions are likely to persist through the end of the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033.