textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms in southeast KS this afternoon and again on Thursday with seasonably warm temperatures through Friday.

- A warming trend beginning this weekend and lasting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The mid upper ridge remains situated from the Upper Mississippi Valley area extending south and east toward the Mid Atlantic area while a couple of shortwave troughs were evident over the Southern CONUS, one over west Texas and another more subtle wave drifting westward across the Lower Mississippi Valley toward the Southern/Central Plains. As the shortwave trough over the Lower Mississippi Valley area approaches today, we expect to see an increase in shower and more isolated storm activity as a high PWAT airmass builds into the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Some of this activity may linger into the evening/overnight hours before diminishing as this subtle wave remains in the area.

Seasonable temperatures are expected to return to the area on Thursday with some scattered afternoon showers and storms, mainly over southeast KS as the subtle wave brushes the Central Plains as it meanders into the Middle Mississippi Valley area and we remain on the edge of the higher PWAT airmass.

Dry weather is expected to return on Friday while lingering into early next week as the mid/upper ridge amplifies over the central CONUS resulting in rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures. Highs may exceed 100 Sun-Tue in many areas, especially over southern and southeast KS. With some lingering low level moisture, we may see some excessive heat headlines with afternoon heat indices rising into the 100-105+ range over parts of southeast Kansas.

An approaching cold front may bring an increase in showers and storms toward the middle of the week, but any cooldown may have to wait until later in the week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Main aviation concern will be a few showers and storms over southeast KS over the next couple of hours.

Scattered showers and storms continue to migrate across southeast KS early this evening in response to a weak upper impulse tracking west across the area. This activity is diurnally driven and should only last another hour or two. KCNU will be the only TAF site affected. The same scenario may play out tomorrow with a few afternoon showers and storms affecting southeast KS. So for now, just ran with VCSH at KCNU. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will prevail outside of showers and storms.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.