textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Showers and storms will continue today with a few strong to possible low end severe storms east of the Kansas turnpike
- Cooler temperatures and dry weather expected for Monday through Wednesday
- Next chances for showers/storms will be possible for late Wednesday night into Friday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
The frontal boundary will move very slowly south today with storms redeveloping along and east of the surface front for locations generally east of the Kansas turnpike this afternoon. Depending how much instability is realized ahead of the front there are enough ingredients in places for a few strong to possible marginal severe storm to materialize. This activity will move slowly east out of the area by around midnight. Meanwhile upslope flow over western Kansas looks to spark off another round of storms later tonight with high- resolution models showing a possible forward propagating MCS diving southeast. Looks like this activity will remain west of central/south central Kansas.
Surface high pressure will build over the area for tonight into Monday, and persist over the central plains through Wednesday. This will give way to cooler below normal temperatures and dry weather conditions over the region. Models show decent low level moisture streaming northward from the Texas panhandle into western Kansas on Wednesday. This will result in numerous showers and storms developing over western Kansas Kansas during the day on Wednesday with some of this activity eventually spreading east into central Kansas late Wednesday night into Thursday. Models continue to show a favorable signal of deeper moisture streaming into Kansas for Thursday and Friday with a upper level wave moving across the region. This looks to bring decent chances of showers/storms to the area during this period. The cooler temperatures will continue into next weekend.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/
Issued at 604 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026
Low clouds in IFR category will continue to spread slowly southward early this morning as surface cold front moves south. Cigs will gradually rise over central Kansas then lower back into IFR category again later tonight. Storms could redevelop over southeast Kansas this afternoon ahead of the cold front. Winds will then remain out of the north as surface cold front continues to push southward into Oklahoma.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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