textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storm threat continues across portions of south central and southeast Kansas through the rest of the afternoon and evening hours. Large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and even a few tornadoes remain possible.

- Cooler temperatures this weekend, then a warming trend to start next week.

- Quiet weather through the middle of next week before the return of storm chances.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict strong mid/upper flow ejecting out of the Southern Rockies into the Plains. A strong cold front as of 12 PM was located along a line from roughly Kingman to Newton to Hillsboro. An extremely buoyant airmass lies ahead of this surface boundary with 3000-4000 J/kg of surface-based CAPE, which will support rapid storm development along the boundary this afternoon into the evening hours. This instability paired with 50 kts of deep-layer shear will promote severe storms capable of producing large to very large hail (greater than 2 inches in diameter) with the initial activity. However, per the previous discussion, we expect storm mode to go linear rather quickly as short term guidance continues to indicate shear oriented mostly parallel to the cold front. Therefore, as activity becomes linear through the rest of the afternoon into the evening hours, the primary threats should transition to strong winds and heavy rainfall. Should a storm be able to separate from the cold front and remain discrete into the evening hours, however, a strengthening LLJ will increase low-level shear/SRH and may allow for a slightly higher tornado threat, especially across far southeast Kansas.

In addition to the severe threat, the exceptionally moist airmass ahead of today's front may provide the potential for heavy rain and localized flooding concerns later tonight, especially if storms begin to train along the boundary. This threat will likely remain confined to areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. We expect storm chances to largely come to an end after midnight as the cold front exits southeast Kansas.

Cooler and quieter weather is expected to follow in the wake of today's system as northwest flow aloft settles in over the Heartland. Low temperatures Saturday morning are expected to dip into the low 40s along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike, while portions of central Kansas may see temperatures near freezing. Additionally, breezy north winds in the trailing airmass will promote wind chills in the 20s and 30s to start the day. Seasonably cool highs in the low 60s are expected across the majority of the area. With clear to mostly clear skies forecast to remain in place throughout the day into the overnight period, radiational cooling Saturday night should promote widespread lows in the 30s heading into Sunday morning. Largely southerly winds will allow for temperatures to rebound into the 70s Sunday afternoon, with perhaps slightly warmer temperatures possible in central Kansas thanks to more of a downslope wind component. High temperatures in the 70s and low 80s are expected Monday through Wednesday.

Looking ahead to the latter half of next week, GFS/ECMWF/Canadian all highlight a mid/upper trough tracking eastward over the Desert Southwest into the Rockies and Plains. This feature may allow for another period of active weather as early as Wednesday, though to this point Thursday evening appears to have the greatest chances for showers and storms. Stay tuned as additional details come into focus.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Gusty northerly winds with speeds up to 30 kts will be possible through early Saturday morning especially in south-central and southeast Kansas then will diminish to around 10-15 kts. Winds will decrease in central Kansas around 08z and remain around 10-15 kts through 00z Sunday. After 00z Sunday, winds will become light and variable with speeds around 5 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Breezy north/northwest winds and dry conditions will support very high grassland fire danger this afternoon for areas west of Interstate 135. Very high grassland fire danger is forecast for the same areas during the afternoon hours on Monday, Wednesday, and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.