textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- There is potential for significant severe weather to occur later today/tonight

- Near normal temperatures and dry weather for Monday-Wednesday followed by next chance of rain Wednesday night into Thursday, chances for severe weather will remain low this upcoming week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows a healthy upper level wave over southern California. This system will track east/northeast across the Rockies and eject out into western Kansas by late evening. Surface cold front was currently positioned from Marion to Anthony southwest into the Texas panhandle. The cold front will sag a little bit further south then stall out this morning with very cool temperatures behind the front. This cool airmass will be difficult to mix out especially with richer low-level moisture streaming northward keeping low clouds entrenched over much of the area throughout the day. There is a signal for elevated storms trying to develop over northwest Kansas and possibly affect central/south central Kansas this morning. Large hail would be main risk from this elevated activity as it moves northeast.

Model soundings continue to support deep low level saturation which favors possible prolonged period of drizzle over parts of central/south central Kansas which would keep MLCIN values higher today. This is a highly conditional environment due to lingering low cloud effects and later arrival time of upper level wave. The key things to watch will be if any clearing can occur across southern Kansas, and timing/positioning of surface warm front as it advances slowly northward across Oklahoma today. High-res models show the warm front not reaching southern Kansas until later this evening. The kinematics from model hodographs for wind shear(over 50kts 0-6km bulk shear, very high 0-1km SRH) combined with thermodynamics are quite favorable for supercells to produce significant severe weather(a few strong tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds) for areas close to the warm front. At this time, the best chance for surface based storms look to initiate along the dry line/triple point over southwest Kansas into the Texas panhandle. This activity would then race northeast this evening and could potentially remain surface based across parts of south central later this evening where high-res models show decent 0-3km CAPE in conjuncture with warm front advancing northward. In addition, elevated supercells north of the warm front will also pose a threat for very large hail later this evening, and that looks to affect mainly central Kansas or locations further north.

Monday-Saturday

Medium range models continue to advertise a weather pattern change for this period with the richer low-level Gulf moisture remaining south of Kansas. Therefore confidence is high that severe weather chances will be low for over central/southern Kansas. Daytime highs will be near normal with a slight cool down expected for Thursday- Friday.

A upper level wave will shift east of Kansas during the day on Monday with drier and cooler air overspreading central/eastern Kansas. In the wake of the Monday system, the upper level pattern transitions into a zonal flow regime for the upcoming week across the central plains. Models in good agreement showing another upper level wave racing east across the region during the day on Tuesday. Precipitation chances will be confined to locations south of Kansas where the richer low-level gulf moisture resides. Dry conditions continue for Wednesday, however models show elevated moisture return which looks to generate elevated showers/weak thunderstorms late Wednesday night into Thursday over Kansas. Not expecting severe weather given low end instability. Cooler than normal temperatures look to prevail for Thursday and Friday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Poor aviation conditions expected across central/south central Kansas with LIFR cigs and periods of drizzle restricting visibilities. Meanwhile elevated showers and storms could move across central Kansas this morning and early afternoon. The low clouds will continue linger over the and could rise into IFR category with occasional drizzle persisting. More storms possible tonight along with low cigs.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.