textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on thunderstorm chances tonight through Saturday night, especially during the evening, nighttime, and early morning hours. While widespread severe weather is not expected, a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms is possible throughout this period.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

TODAY...Currently there is a weak cluster of showers/storms progressing east-southeast over western Kansas. Thinking this activity will likely dissipate before reaching central and south- central KS. However, short-term guidance suggests this activity will develop an MCV tracking over central KS today. While we're thinking convective inhibition will probably be enough to keep thunderstorms initiation at-bay, cannot completely rule an isolated storm or two associated with this MCV from about midday through the early evening, mainly west of the Flint Hills.

TONIGHT...Better chances for thunderstorms will arrive tonight, as a few clusters of thunderstorms track east-southeast off the High Plains and southern Nebraska, in response to a slow-moving cold front approaching from the north-northwest. Thinking by the time activity reaches the forecast area, the primary hazards with these loosely organized thunderstorm complexes will be 50-65 mph winds, small hail, and perhaps locally heavy rain (although progressive nature of storms should prevent widespread heavy rain).

THURSDAY--THURSDAY NIGHT...Tonight's thunderstorms should gradually exit southeast KS Thursday morning. For the afternoon and evening, most CAM solutions generate a decently strong cold pool with tonight's convection, which should drive the convectively-augmented frontal zone further south than the global models are suggesting, likely over southern KS or northern OK. Consequently, thinking any isolated thunderstorm chances late Thursday will be over south- central and southeast KS in vicinity of this boundary. For Thursday evening and night, we are expecting another MCS or two to track east- southeast off the High Plains, and track along/north of the draped/stalled frontal zone (probably track generally along/south of I-70, although there is high uncertainty on its exact track). Similar to tonight, the primary hazard with this activity will be locally severe wind gusts.

FRIDAY--SATURDAY NIGHT...The lingering frontal zone combined with shortwave energy continuing to top the building western CONUS ridge should support continued off-and-on thunderstorm chances Friday through Saturday night. Locally severe wind gusts will remain the primary hazard throughout this period.

SUNDAY--MONDAY...The upper ridge looks to build so far north that weak shortwave energy is expected to progress northeast to southwest across Mid-America late weekend into early next week. This combined with slightly cooler temperatures aloft south of the ridge may support a smattering of isolated showers/storms Sunday through Monday evening, mainly over southern KS.

TEMPERATURES:

TODAY--SATURDAY...Thinking the next few days will probably the warmest of the next 7 days, especially today areawide, and Thursday over southern KS. A post-thunderstorm outflow airmass will likely keep temperatures in check generally north of Highway 54/400 Thursday. Heat indices may touch 105 over south-central and southeast KS both days, but thinking it's too marginal for a heat advisory. Friday and Saturday will likely feature an ever-so-slight cool down, as thickness decreases a bit north of the weakening stalled frontal zone.

SUNDAY--NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a rather anomalous upper ridge building across the central and western CONUS. Normally this would be a recipe for a developing heat wave across Kansas. However, the ridge looks to progress far enough north to keep Kansas to the south of the greatest thickness and associated highest temperatures. Consequently, daytime temperatures may end up being rather seasonable in the upper 80s through mid 90s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 651 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

THIS MORNING...A stray shower/thunderstorm can't be ruled out through about mid-morning for mainly GBD, within a zone of weak warm advection.

THIS AFTERNOON...A few isolated showers/thunderstorms are possible for all TAF sites except CNU, as a weak mid-level disturbance approaches from the west. Chances and coverage looked too low to mention in 12z TAFs, but later shifts will need to monitor observational and model trends.

THIS EVENING-TONIGHT...A cluster or two of showers/thunderstorms is expected to track east-southeast off the High Plains, impacting central and eastern portions of Kansas later this evening and overnight. For now covered this threat with PROB30 groups, although suspect later shifts will need to add TEMPO groups.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.