textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple strong to marginally severe storms could develop this afternoon along the Kansas/Oklahoma border into southeast Kansas from mid afternoon into early evening.

- Strong to severe storms could occur again early next week.

- Today is the coolest day of the forecast with high temperatures from the mid 50s in north central Kansas to the lower 70s along the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Otherwise they are expected to largely remain above normal for this time of year through the rest of the seven days with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

A cold front will continue to drop south today. Based on the current observations, frontal position is from Dodge City to McPherson to Manhattan. It is moving slightly quicker than previously anticipated which could play a role for the evolution of the day. There have been two areas of convection in the state (southwest and northeast) through the overnight which have slowly moved east. Given what has occurred so far, the activity in southwest Kansas could move into south central early this morning, but recent trends have showed a dissipation as it reaches locations ahead of the front. Chances for precipitation were kept around 20-40% for the morning hours. The activity in northeast Kansas is starting to drop more southerly which would increase the chances in southeast Kansas; therefore the chances are 30-50% for showers and thunderstorms. Cold air advection will keep temperatures in the mid 50s across north central Kansas to the lower 70s along the KS/OK border with a later arrival time; today is the coolest day in the seven day forecast for most locations.

The cold front is anticipated to stall out across southern Kansas, but placement of the front is a factor with some discrepancies as mentioned in the previous discussion. Current thoughts are that it could halt near the KS/OK border into the Ozarks. Instability and forcing should be adequate with the cold front where CAPE is from 1500-2500 J/kg from 18-0Z, but the shear is on the weaker side (20- 30 kts of 0-6km bulk) even when compared to what occurred Thursday evening. There is pretty good agreement that the better instability is in Oklahoma. Given this, a couple of strong to marginal severe thunderstorms are expected with the most likely location to be in the counties bordering Oklahoma and southeast Kansas if something were to develop. The main threats would be nickel to maybe quarter sized hail and 50-60 mph winds. Stronger convection is dependent on the placement of the cold front along with where it may decide to hold up. If it maintains its push south, most of the activity may end up in Oklahoma and Ozarks instead. Moisture transport increases this evening into tonight which could bring showers and some thunderstorms behind the front. Confidence is not high in the current precipitation chances as a ridge further shifts in from the west. It may end up being just low clouds.

The mid and upper level ridge will stay into Saturday before pushing east to cap off the weekend. A northward advancing warm front could trigger thunderstorms on Saturday, but the risk is marginal in part due to the lack of support aloft. A trough will move into the Plains on Sunday with additional waves to start off next week. There are differences in the tracks of these systems lowering the confidence in what occurs. Better moisture transport is anticipated for this timeframe. Strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out through the time period, but it is the details that are uncertain. Stay tuned. There are even greater model discrepancies for mid to late next week challenging any precipitation chances through this window. High temperatures for the rest of the forecast are generally from the mid 70s to mid 80s which are 10-20 degrees above seasonal normal.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 703 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Concerns:

1) MVFR & IFR conditions reducing to LIFR this evening/tonight 2) Showers & a few thunderstorms this morning & again later afternoon in southern Kansas

MVFR and IFR ceilings have moved primarily behind a cold front that is draped over southern Kansas. This front continues to push south switching the winds around to the northeast. Showers and a few thunderstorms have started to fill in more of southern Kansas in the last couple of hours. This activity may linger across southeast Kansas through the day, so it was decided to leave at least vicinity wording in for now at KCNU. If the front stalls, a stronger storm could develop along the KS/OK border into southeast Kansas later this afternoon into the evening. Most of the activity may develop in Oklahoma therefore no mention was included for the CNU. Additional moisture will pool in this evening and tonight to further drop conditions down to LIFR for RSL, GBD, SLN and HUT. There could be drizzle to reduce the visibility as well, but it was decided to let upcoming forecasters assess the potential given the time period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 454 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The main days for very high grassland fire danger are Monday for north central and portions of south central Kansas then Tuesday in north central. Minimum relative humidities are forecast to range from 15-25% in the afternoon along with 15-25 mph winds. There are chances of showers and thunderstorms leading up to these days in the mentioned locations. This along with the above normal temperatures and green up could start to reduce the fire weather risk.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.