textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A couple of strong or severe storms with nickel to quarter sized hail may be possible this evening and tonight.

- Widespread beneficial rain is expected this evening through late Saturday night. Locally heavy rain could result in ponding of water or localized flooding concerns, especially in southeast Kansas.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions early next week will support elevated fire weather concerns each afternoon, with the highest concern over parts of central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A shortwave trough can be seen on water vapor imagery approaching southern California early this morning. This trough is progged to sweep eastward over the Southwest today before moving over the Southern Rockies tonight. Ahead of this feature, H85-H7 flow will increase over the Southern High Plains nosing into south central Kansas this evening and tonight while steep mid-level lapse rates are also progged. As the low level moisture transport increases this evening, elevated showers and thunderstorms are expected to become increasingly likely while expanding in coverage over much of the area. NAM/RAP point soundings across south central Kansas are the most aggressive indicating 500-1000+ J/KG of elevated CAPE with parcels in the 1-2km layer. NAM hodographs also show some length and a slight veering profile which might support a couple of hailers mixed in with the elevated shower activity this evening and tonight. An isolated severe storm or two with nickel to quarter sized hail may be possible in parts of south central Kansas. A very moist airmass is also expected with PWATS around 1.2 inches progged to build into the region this evening and tonight before being shunted eastward on Saturday. When compared to sounding climatology, we are talking about PWATS at or exceeding the daily max for OUN. So with a large cluster of elevated convection, we expect some training of storms with efficient rainfall likely leading to some localized flooding concerns. The highest probabilities for 1-2+ inches of rain will be along and east of the Kansas Turnpike which is supported by the latest HREF. The HREF neighborhood probabilities for exceeding 1 inch are 100 percent for much of southeast Kansas while while a small portion of far southeast Kansas has probabilities for exceeding 2 inches around 70 percent, mainly Labette and Montgomery counties. Any lingering showers should diminish from west to east shortly after midnight.

Sun-Thu...A mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the central CONUS in the wake of the storm system. This will bring rising heights/increasing thickness and rising temperatures to the Central Plains through the period. Mild, above average temperatures are likely through the upcoming week, peaking on Tuesday for most areas. We expect to see highs in the 60s and 70s. A cold front may try to settle south into parts of central KS late Monday night/early Tuesday but confidence in the placement remains fairly low. We may see another robust mid/upper trough impact the central CONUS toward the end of the period. At this time the track appears to remain north of the area with some uncertainty in it's timing. Even with a northward track, it is expected to drive a cold front south across the region on Thursday ushering in more seasonable air although the timing remains uncertain.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Light and variable winds early will become easterly at 10-15 knots as we move through the afternoon and evening hours. Ceilings will gradually lower as a storm system approaches late in the day with MVFR cigs likely as we move into the evening hours. IFR/LIFR will become increasingly likely late tonight and into the morning hours on Saturday with widespread showers lingering over the area. Some thunderstorms could impact southern Kansas this evening where nickel sized hail may be possible with the strongest storms.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 237 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Warm, dry and windy conditions will result in a very high to extreme grassland fire danger on Tuesday and Wednesday, particularly during the afternoon hours across parts of central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.