textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few severe storms remain possible through the afternoon and evening across central KS.

- Strong to severe storms possible Friday, then again early next week.

- Temperatures expected to largely remain above normal for this time of year through the next seven days, with highs in the 70s and 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper wave tracking eastward across the Northern Plains while a secondary upper low spins off the California coast. Showers and thunderstorms were observed across portions of central and northeast Kansas earlier today along a stationary front amid a 700 mb baroclinic zone. Surface instability around 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kts of deep- layer shear currently observed along and near the I-70 corridor will allow for a handful of showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. Primary concerns will be large hail and damaging winds as the gradually shifts south on the nose of the LLJ later tonight.

The aforementioned frontal boundary is progged to track southward through the overnight hours, with short-term guidance (HREF) placing it roughly along and south of US-54 by 12Z Friday. While some outliers carry this boundary as far south as US-160 and as far north as US-50, model consensus is that daytime heating alongside convergence along the front will promote continued chances for showers and storms through the afternoon and evening hours. Mid- level lapse rates around 7-8 C/km and deep-layer shear around 30 kts will support the potential for large hail and damaging winds with the strongest updrafts. However, strong to severe activity should remain isolated especially as storms cluster and shift into southeast KS. With stronger northeast winds advecting cooler air into the northern half of KS, high temperatures north of US-50 are expected to reach the mid 50s, while areas in southern KS could warm into the low 70s.

A shortwave ridge will slide overhead early Saturday morning ahead of a potent wave ejecting out of the Desert Southwest. We continue to see the potential for a few storms developing late Saturday afternoon amid limited capping, though as the previous forecast noted, confidence is somewhat low at this time considering the lack of a well-defined dryline/surface boundary. Better chances for rain look to arrive late Saturday night into Sunday across southeast KS as the mid/upper shortwave lifts into the Central Plains. High temperatures for the weekend are forecast to return to the 70s and low 80s, and these above-normal temperatures are expected to remain in place through the middle of next week.

Attention then turns to Monday and Tuesday as another strong mid/upper wave translates east into the Plains. Model prognosis highlights ample instability and shear to support the return of severe weather for this period. Stay tuned as additional details come into focus.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1212 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Aviation concerns will be storm chances tonight through Friday along with lower ceilings behind a cold front.

Cold front currently extends from near KSLN to KGBD and to north of KDDC. Scattered storms remain along and just south of the front with the best concentration over northeast KS, where low level jet is focused. Feel that this trend will continue with eastern KS having the better storm coverage compared to central and south central KS. After 12z, feel that the best storm chances will be confined to southern and southeast KS as front continues south, with mainly just a few showers over central KS.

As cold front pushes south, cooler air will run into higher dewpoints which will allow for MVFR/IFR cigs to develop over the next few hours, especially over central KS. Feel that KGBD- KSLN-KHUT will have the best chance to see IFR through late Fri morning. While we may see a brief break in IFR cigs, confidence is high that they will build back in Fri evening for areas along and especially west of I-135.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 258 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Gusty winds and warm temperatures will promote very high grassland fire danger through early this evening for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike, then again Monday and Tuesday afternoons for portions of central and south central Kansas.

Periodic showers and storms along with continued green up may gradually begin to reduce the fire weather risk over the upcoming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.