textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Low storm chances far southern Kansas later this afternoon through early Sunday morning.

- Dry and seasonably warm conditions forecast for next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Currently, the ridge is building over the western US with the ridge axis extending from the Desert Southwest north across the Rockies. A prominent mid-level short wave extends from the Great Lakes into the Central Plains. At the surface, the associated frontal boundary is draped across the Ohio Valley and into southern Kansas. Storms developed overnight along this boundary as low-level WAA increased. Anomalously high PWATs around 2" led to efficient rain producers with limited severe potential. Some of this activity lingers this morning across south-central and southeast Kansas, but will continue to diminish in intensity and coverage by daybreak.

As we move through the rest of the day, the wave will continue to push east, slowly dragging the boundary further south across the area through the day. Scattered rain and storm chances are possible again today as the boundary continues to sink further south, and storms will be focused along the KS/OK state line. Model guidance suggests that the majority of the activity will develop south of the forecast area, though a strong storm or two can't be ruled out during the late afternoon and evening hours across far southern KS. Once again, any storms that develop will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

By Sunday, the boundary will be located across the Southern Plains leading to the return of mostly dry weather to our area for Sunday into early next week. Then, as a strong ridge builds over the central US by mid week, the forecast area looks to reside under easterly flow. This setup could support a an isolated shower or weak storm as Gulf moisture pushes into the region. However, with current model placement of the mid/upper high, the most likely placement of this convective activity next week would be south of our area.

North of the boundary today, much of the forecast area will see temperatures near or just below normal for this time of year with highs reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s. For far southern Kansas that will reside along or just south of the boundary, highs this afternoon will still manage to approach the middle 90s with heat indices reaching around 100 degrees. For Sunday into early next week, highs areawide will hover around the 90 degree mark. As the ridge shifts east over the region by mid week, temperatures will begin to warm slightly. It continues to appear that the ridge will build far enough north that the true heat dome will remain north of our region. Even so, high temperatures for the latter part of next week look to reach into the middle 90s, with upper 90s possible for south-central Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 549 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Light easterly winds will prevail today and tonight. Winds could approach 10 knots for central and south-central KS locations this afternoon. A few showers and storms will develop near the KS/OK state line later this afternoon and evening. This activity is expected to remain south of all the TAF sites at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.