textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Windy conditions Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday

- Very high fire danger conditions possible across central KS Wednesday and Friday

- Prospects for rain decreasing for midweek; better chances late- week into next weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

As of 2 PM Sunday afternoon, a weak midlevel low remains across the Red River Valley. The best forcing for ascent has remained across OK, which has kept the greatest coverage of rain showers across OK as well. Aside from a stray sprinkle this afternoon, dry conditions should prevail for the remainder of the day. The persistent cloud cover has held temperatures in the 40s for most locations. Transitioning into tonight, the aforementioned midlevel low will progress into east TX with midlevel ridging spreading into the Plains. A LLJ will strengthen across portions of central and western KS tonight. This should allow overcast skies to continue with the potential for low clouds across central KS. Temperatures will be slow to cool overnight with the overcast skies. Overnight lows are forecast to range from the the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

For Monday and beyond, a lee surface trough across the high Plains will deepen Monday into Tuesday as a western CONUS trough approaches the central US. The increasing surface pressure gradient will result in southerly wind gusts up to 45 mph Tuesday and Wednesday. Latest global models have trended further west with the track of the shortwave trough passage late Tuesday night into Wednesday. As a result, the prospects for rainfall continue to decrease with mostly dry conditions now expected. The main trough axis is poised to eject into the Plains late next week into the weekend and may result in rain chances returning to the area. The arrival of this trough is likely to yield gusty south winds up to 40 mph on Friday. In regards to temperatures, the persistent southerly flow throughout the week will promote a warming trend will temperatures gradually warming each day. High temperatures for the second half of the week are likely to reach the 60s to near 70.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1134 AM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Rain showers have mostly exited the area and expect VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. Winds will gradually shift to the south and increase 10-15 kt after 00Z, especially across central KS. This is also the area where low CIGS may move in after 04-05Z. Model guidance continues to vary with the placement of CIGS overnight, therefore maintained VFR are RSL and GBD but did include a SCT008 mention. Later outlooks will need to reevaluate that potential.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2026

Warm season grasses continue to transition toward a dormant status. The increasing fuel load combined with unseasonably warm temperatures in the 60s and gusty south winds up to 45 mph may create very high fire danger conditions across central KS Wednesday afternoon. A similar scenario is possible Friday afternoon with warm temperatures and gusty winds resulting in very high fire danger across central KS.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.