textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms are possible in southeast KS this afternoon.

- Seasonable and dry weather conditions are expected Monday through Wednesday.

- Increasing probabilities for showers/storms late Wednesday night into the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

A cold front was bisecting southeast Kansas this morning with a considerable amount of post-frontal stratus impacting much of northern and portions of central Kansas. This is expected to keep temperatures in the 70s for most areas behind the front with some modest low level caa. Meanwhile, some breaks in the clouds will allow highs to climb to near 90 in the far southeast corner of KS early in the period with steady or falling temperatures anticipated. Some showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the buoyant and weakly capped airmass along and ahead of the front this afternoon while the focus gradually shifts south and east of the area as we move into the evening and overnight hours. A moist upslope flow regime over the Central High Plains is expected to result in a complex of showers and storms developing this evening. This activity is expected to drift south and east across western Kansas possibly clipping our central KS counties during the overnight hours before diminishing, although higher probabilities are expected to remain further west.

Mon-Wed...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated through the period with light northeast winds. The mid/upper ridge is progged to build over the stable shallow airmass with minimal impacts to sensible weather. Highs are expected to range from 75-80 through the period with lows mostly in the 50s, which is near climate normals for late Sep.

By Wed night, we may see some increase in shower activity as rich moisture wraps around the mid/upper ridge centered over the lower Mississippi Valley area. PWATs are progged to rise above 1.5" as more subtle features rotate around this feature. This moist plume is progged to remain across the Central and Southern Plains into the upcoming weekend with multiple opportunities for beneficial rainfall through the period. Temperatures are expected to moderate by this weekend with above average values returning to the area Sat-Sun. The threat for a few strong or severe storms may be hard to rule out over the upcoming weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 636 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main aviation concern will be low clouds overnight into Monday.

Cold front currently stretches from northeast OK into the TX Panhandle. Widespread MVFR cigs are in place across all of central KS and current thinking is that they will stick around through Mon morning. The southern extent will be in question but did feel confident enough to keep MVFR levels in at Wichita. Will keep them in through around 17z but it's not out of the question they could linger longer.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.