textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezy conditions today. Quick warm up beginning on Tuesday and lasting through Thursday.

- Record highs possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Cold front Thursday evening will bring a low chance of showers Thursday night and cooler temperatures for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Looking at water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis early this afternoon, the upper ridge that brought record breaking temperatures this weekend has completely broken down, and zonal flow has overtaken much of the central CONUS. At the surface, a post- frontal air mass continues to dominate Mid-America this afternoon, and easterly winds are helping to keep temperatures on the mild side. A subtle wave embedded within the aforementioned mid/upper zonal flow may provide just enough lift for a few sprinkles across southeast Kansas this evening into tonight. However, no meaningful rainfall is expected.

Beginning on Tuesday, the southwestern CONUS ridge is forecast to redevelop and will slowly slide eastward through the middle of the week. This will support a quick warming trend Tuesday through Thursday across the central plains with the potential for more record highs Wednesday and Thursday. Fire weather concerns will also return as fuels remain very dry and volatile, and little moisture is anticipated to accompany the returning heat. Very high grassland fire danger is possible both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, although it looks fairly marginal due to lighter winds. Thursday appears to be the most concerning day for fire weather conditions this week. As the upper ridge across the southern plains begins to breakdown, a strong cold front will begin to approach the area by Thursday afternoon. Surface winds will veer out to southwesterly ahead of the front, and they could be quite gusty thanks to a decently strong pressure gradient. These gusty southwesterly winds will promote downsloping off the High Plains will generally support warming and drying of the low-level airmass. Additionally, compressional warming ahead of the cold front will also support very warm to hot temperatures, particularly across south-central and southeast Kansas. It's possible locations along and east of the Kansas Turnpike could be warmer Thursday afternoon than they were this past Saturday afternoon, and record highs are appearing increasingly likely across these areas. All in all, a very warm, dry, and windy day will likely propel grassland fire danger well into the extreme category Thursday afternoon.

After the frontal passage, a weak shortwave trough will pass over the region, and guidance suggests this will provide enough lift for a few isolated showers and storms Thursday evening through early Friday morning along and east of I-135. With the lack of moisture, I'm currently a bit skeptical of this scenario really playing out, and I wouldn't be surprised if little to no precip occurred in this time frame. However, guidance seems adamant that this trough will provide enough lift to support some activity. Trends will be monitored over the next couple of days. There's much higher confidence that much cooler temperatures will overspread the region with Friday's highs likely only rising into the 50s, which is slightly below average for this time of year. Through the weekend and into next week, mid range guidance is on board with a gradual warm-up across the central plains.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Aviation concerns are still expected to remain minimal through the next 24 hours.

Scattered high clouds will continue to affect the region tonight and will gradually shift southeast by Tue morning. East winds will come around to the south and southeast by late Tue morning with some afternoon gusts around 25 mph possible for areas along and west of I-135. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Tuesday... Warmer temperatures and dry conditions will be in place across the area.. Breezy southerly winds across central Kansas could briefly support very high fire danger across these areas during the afternoon hours.

Wednesday & Thursday... Anomalously warm temperatures will return on Wednesday and continue into Thursday. Light winds on Wednesday will quell most fire weather concerns; however, RH values between 15-30% and temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will support the potential for very high fire danger across the Flint Hills and central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Gustier winds on Thursday along with slightly drier air and slightly warmer temperatures, especially across southern and southeast Kansas, will support very high to potentially extreme fire danger across the entire area.

Friday... Dry and breezy conditions persist into Friday and Saturday with very high fire danger possible. However, temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below average.

Saturday... Continued dry and breezy conditions will support very high grassland fire danger across central Kansas during the afternoon hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 238 PM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record highs are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday (3/25): Wichita: Forecast - 88, Record - 89 (1956) Salina: Forecast - 92, Record - 93 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 86, Record - 88 (1910) Russell: Forecast - 94, Record - 89 (1976)

Thursday (3/26): Wichita: Forecast - 94, Record - 83 (1918) Salina: Forecast - 90, Record - 86 (1910) Chanute: Forecast - 92, Record - 85 (1918)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.