textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog possible (40-50 percent chance) this morning

- Patchy fog possible Saturday morning across central KS

- Warm and dry pattern through the middle of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

As of 230 AM Friday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow was present across the central Plains with a weak, compact shortwave trough progressing through central OK. Unfortunately, the bulk of precipitation will remain across OK with only increased midlevel cloudiness across KS. An expansive area of surface high pressure extends from the northern Plains through the southern MO valley. On the southwestern periphery of this area of high pressure, small dewpoint depressions and weak upslope flow was contributing to fog formation across portions of northeast KS. This axis of fog formation is expected to spread southwest across portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS later this morning. To this point, widespread dense fog hasn't been noted, likely due to the expansive midlevel cloud cover. As a result, confidence remains too low for the issuance of a Dense Fog Advisory but trends will need to be monitored through sunrise.

Transitioning into the daytime hours today, fog and low stratus will gradually erode through the morning/early afternoon. The exact timing of this erosion will prove critical for afternoon temperatures. Given the persistent northeasterly flow, anticipate the fog/stratus will linger into the afternoon. This scenario is greatly supported by the HREF with much cooler temperatures when compared to the global models. As such, forecast temperatures have decreased a few degrees with highs mainly in the 40s to near 50 expected. Should the latest HRRR/RAP runs verify, highs in the upper 30s are possible across portions of central KS. Again, trends will need to be monitored.

By tonight, another weak and compact shortwave trough will slide across the central Plains. Little if any precipitation is expected with its passage. Otherwise, the southwestern periphery of the surface high pressure will setup across portions of central KS tonight into early Saturday morning with additional fog formation possible.

For Saturday and beyond, midlevel heights will gradually increase as a midlevel ridge amplifies and spreads across the Plains. This will promote warmer temperatures with highs in the 50s over the weekend and 60s early next week. Mid to long range guidance continues to suggest the next potential for precipitation arrives towards the latter half of next week as a southwestern trough ejects into the central/southern Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1137 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Low clouds will continue to slowly erode to the northeast this afternoon over central and southeast Kansas, with most areas expected to break out of the low clouds except for Salina(which could remain overcast). After sunset the low clouds look to begin redeveloping and expand slowly westward once again, along with possible dense fog forming on the edge of the low clouds. This could impact mainly central and southeast Kansas through the overnight and morning hours on Saturday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.