textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong to severe storms could spread northward into far southeast Kansas for late this morning-mid afternoon

- Cooler than normal temperatures for Wednesday-Friday with a chance of light rain showers on Thursday

- Warmer temperatures return for the weekend

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Current surface analysis shows stalled out frontal boundary near the Red River region with very rich gulf moisture along and south of the boundary. Meanwhile satellite imagery shows upper level wave near the 4 corners region and a second wave over southern Idaho. Both of these waves will continue to move east across the Rockies and phase together across Nebraska today. This will cause the stalled out frontal boundary to lift northward across Oklahoma as a warm front. Already seeing signals of elevated moisture transport spreading north of the surface front on satellite low-level water vapor imagery early this morning across west Texas into southwest Oklahoma. This signal will translate northeast and cause elevated storms to blossom over central Oklahoma this morning. A few storms could possibly expand further north into parts of far southeast Kansas by late this morning through mid afternoon where CAM model trends are highlighting. The elevated environment would become favorable for strong to severe storms to materialize given steep mid-level lapse rates, MUCAPE 1000-2000j/kg, and 1-6km bulk shear around 50kts in the vicinity. The primary hazard would be large hail of quarter to possible golf ball size in this type of environment. Additional rain showers are possible over central Kansas just ahead of the upper wave which will be further removed from the better quality moisture. Dry weather will prevail for tonight and Wednesday as subsidence overspreads the region in the wake of today's upper level wave.

Thursday-Monday

Models continue to show a second upper level wave dropping southward across the northern plains inducing mid-level lift over western Kansas on Thursday. This will generate mainly rain showers with a few embedded weak storms possible. Some of this activity could venture eastward into central Kansas on Thursday. Severe weather is not expected due to very low elevated instability and poor mid-level lapse rates. Weather pattern looks to remain dry for Friday into the weekend along with temperatures warming each day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Low clouds MVFR cigs will spread across the region this morning and will linger over southeast Kansas into the afternoon. Low clouds will rise into VFR levels as the day goes on for central/south central Kansas. Meanwhile elevated storms will develop over Oklahoma and could move into far southeast Kansas by late this morning into the afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.