textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and windy today, with cooler temperatures continuing through Sunday, though still mostly relatively mild for February standards.

- Mostly dry conditions through through Thursday night or Friday, with increasing rain chances Friday or Friday night through Saturday night.

- A return to well above average temperatures and stout/gusty south winds by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 113 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A cold front will progress south through the region early this morning, cooling temperatures by about 20-25 degrees for today (though still above average for February), with stout/gusty north winds in wake of the cold front. Thinking winds will be strongest through about midday, with gusts upwards of 35-40 mph at times. Localized Wind Advisory criteria is certainly possible, although do not think it'll be widespread enough to warrant a Wind Advisory.

These cooler temperatures will persist through Wednesday, with temperatures warming back into the 60s for many locations Thursday ahead of the next weak cold front.

Uncertainty increases as we head into Friday and Saturday, as global model consensus supports the potential for widespread increasing clouds/precipitation, especially over the southern half of Kansas, although significant model variability from run-to-run persists. If widespread precipitation does come to fruition, daytime temperatures in the 40s are likely Friday and Saturday. If not, widespread 50s are likely.

Confidence is increasing in a return to well above average temperatures by early next week, as a deepening western CONUS longwave trough increases thickness and southerly flow across Mid-America. Daytime temperatures in the 60s-70s look probable, along with the potential for stout/gusty south winds.

PRECIPITATION:

Held onto very low rain probabilities for Thursday through Thursday night over far eastern Kansas, as a low amplitude shortwave traverses the Central Plains, and a weak cold front moves through. However, rather weak lift and limited moisture should keep coverage very spotty and light.

Uncertainty continues to abound as we head into Friday through Saturday night, as global model consensus progresses a stout upper trough east over the Central and Southern Plains. Run-to- run and model-to-model consistency continues to be rather poor surrounding this time period, hence the high uncertainty regarding timing, placement, and magnitude of forecast rainfall amounts.

The latest ECMWF and GFS are targeting mainly the southern one- third to one-half of Kansas with high PoPs, whereas the GDPS is much more widespread, with meaningful precipitation as far north as southern Nebraska. If the more bullish solutions verify, strong lift amidst anomalous precipitable waters and some instability would support widespread heavy rainfall amounts upwards of 1+ inches, especially over southern and southeast Kansas. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days. Regardless, precipitation type looks to likely remain mostly (if not all) liquid across the forecast area given the lack of cold air.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Primary aviation concerns continue to be associated with gusty north winds behind the approaching front coming in from the north. Model guidance continues to indicate the strongest winds immediately behind the boundary especially in central and south central KS, where gusts exceeding 30 kts are possible through roughly 18Z. Still looking for sustained speeds in the 15-18 kt range through Tuesday afternoon before winds dissipate to below 10 kts after sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 113 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

TODAY...Stout/gusty north winds in wake of a cold front moving south may support lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger areawide. Cooler temperatures though will prevent Red Flag/critical fire danger.

NEXT MONDAY-TUESDAY...A return to well above average temperatures looks probable by early next week, along with the potential for stout/gusty south winds. This combination should support a return to elevated grassland fire danger.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.