textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chances for showers/storms tonight and again on Thursday night along with potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms and heavy rainfall

- Higher confidence for another heat wave to build across the region for the weekend into mid-week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Lingering showers/storms will be possible again over central Kansas and parts of southeast Kansas this morning. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an embedded upper level short wave over Wyoming traveling southeast via northwest flow regime aloft. This system will track east-southeast across Nebraska today and reach southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later tonight. A surface cold front will continue to migrate slowly southeast today and create a noticeable temperature difference from central Kansas compared to southern Kansas. A few storms could try and develop along the frontal boundary over southern Kansas late this afternoon/evening where convective temperatures should be attained. Otherwise a better signal for showers/storms will develop later tonight as low level jet increases moisture transport into a 700mb baroclinic zone. Expecting scattered storms to begin developing over parts of central/south central Kansas and more numerous storms to impact northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri mainly after 10pm. Elevated environment is supportive of a few strong to marginally severe storms given favorable 700-500mb layer directional shear profile and adequate instability. The activity looks to shift east of Kansas by Thursday morning with generally dry weather on tap during the day. Another round of elevated showers/storms is expected Thursday night with same signal of increasing low jet focusing moisture transport into 700mb baroclinic zone. The coverage of showers/storms looks to become more numerous along with potential for a few elevated strong to marginally severe storms possible again. There is also a threat for heavy rainfall to impact parts of southeast Kansas Thursday night.

Deterministic models continue to show upper level high pressure center stretching eastward from the Rockies across Kansas for the weekend through early next week. High confidence that another round of heat and dry weather will affect the region this period. Model ensembles show increasing probabilities for 100 degrees or higher daytime high temperatures to begin affecting locations generally along and west of I-135/I-35 on Saturday. The model ensemble probabilities for 100 degrees or greater for daytime highs reaches 70-90% Sunday-Tuesday for those same locations.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1047 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Aviation concerns will be low ceilings across central KS as a strong cold front slowly moves through the area.

Cold front currently extends from just south of KSLN to near KHUT and is very slowly pushing southeast. Models have continued to slow the speed of front and will now move through KICT by around 09z. Cooler air spilling-in from the north has resulted in MVFR cigs across central KS, affecting, KRSL-KSLN-KGBD, with confidence increasing that IFR cigs will be likely over the next several hours. The southward extent of low clouds should reach KHUT but will remain north of KICT. While some pockets of showers will be possible through much of this forecast, coverage is not expected to be high enough to run with anything more than VCSH at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.