textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of very light snow flurries spreading south from later tonight through Wednesday night. No accumulation or adverse impacts expected.

- Turning colder and breezy Wednesday--Thursday, with single digit wind chills early Thursday. This will likely be the coldest period of the next 7-10 days.

- Moderating temperatures Friday--Saturday, with another cool down Sunday--Monday.

- A possible return to above average temperatures by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

- Major storm systems look unlikely the next 7-10 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

PRECIPITATION:

A deep cold frontal zone moving south through the region amidst weak- modest large scale lift ahead of an approaching western CONUS upper trough should support areas of very light snow flurries and sprinkles later tonight through early Thursday. For tonight, thinking they will be confined to mainly I-70 counties. From Wednesday through early Thursday, these very light snow flurry chances should gradually shift/expand south through the rest of central, eastern, and southern Kansas. Rather high cloud bases and only weak to modest lift will prevent any accumulation or adverse impacts with any of this activity.

Otherwise, per deterministic and ensemble consensus, mostly dry northwest flow is expected through the next 7-10 days, which should support mostly dry weather. The only exception could be some light wintry precipitation late Saturday through Sunday as a shortwave moves southeast through the region and a cold front moves south. Quite a bit of uncertainty with this system, with the GFS being more bullish compared to the ECMWF and CMC. Either way, a major storm system looks unlikely. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Arctic high pressure will plunge south into Mid-America Wednesday and Thursday, supporting chilly well below average temperatures and breezy/gusty northeast winds. Early Thursday morning will likely be the coldest of the next 7-10 days, with single digit wind chills likely.

Moderating temperatures are likely Friday and Saturday, before another cold front brings temperatures down again Sunday and Monday, but probably not as cold as Wednesday--Thursday.

Taking a look ahead into next week...model consensus supports a return to above average temperatures by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week, as a stout area of upper level high pressure gradually builds east out of the western CONUS. At this time, daytime highs in the 50s and overnight lows in the 30s look probable.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 509 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Main aviation concerns will be MVFR cigs and breezy north winds following a cold front passing through the area Wednesday morning. Tried to time these out similar to the 18Z cycle with cigs expected to fall from north to south and eventually impacting all sites except for CNU by late morning/early afternoon. Could even see some brief IFR at central KS sites but decided to keep as SCT for this cycle. Otherwise, look for north winds in central and south central KS to sustain around 15 kts and gusts to 20-25 kts by late morning and lasting through the end of the period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.