textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms increase this evening- tonight, and persist through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall will be primary hazard through Friday morning, with possibly a low-end severe threat each late afternoon and evening Friday--Sunday.

- Seasonable temperatures anticipated over the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS EVENING--THURSDAY NIGHT...A slow-moving elongated upper trough approaching from the south-southwest will be the focus for scattered to at times numerous showers/thunderstorms increasing from the south- southwest tonight, and persisting off-and-on through Thursday night or early Friday. Strong or severe thunderstorms aren't expected given poor mid-level lapse rates, skinny CAPE profiles, and weak deep layer shear, although rich precipitable waters, relatively slow storm motions, and deep warm cloud depths will support heavy downpours and possibly localized flooding concerns.

Forecast rainfall amounts are difficult to pin down across the forecast area given the scattered nature of the convection. Thinking many areas will see at least 0.25 to 0.50 inches, with localized 1- 2+ inch amounts expected. In fact, given HREF max ensemble members, thinking a few 3+ inch amounts can't be ruled out as well.

FRIDAY--SUNDAY...The departing upper trough may support lingering showers/storms over eastern Kansas Friday morning. Meanwhile, the western CONUS parent upper low finally begins to eject slowly east- northeast Fri-Sun, modestly increasing the flow aloft and subsequent vertical shear. Meanwhile, a dryline may sharpen each afternoon- evening to support isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Steepening mid-level lapse rates and subsequent fat buoyancy profiles combined with a modest uptick in deep layer shear may support a low-end severe threat each afternoon-evening.

MONDAY--WEDNESDAY...Low confidence thunderstorm forecast next week. Potential for some weak energy aloft combined with a continued buoyant airmass may support low chances for thunderstorms each afternoon-evening across the region.

TEMPERATURES:

Fairly uniform temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected each day through the next 7 days, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. These values are very close to normal for this time of year. Thinking the coolest day will be Thursday, when clouds and precipitation keep daytime readings mostly in the 70s. Dewpoints climbing through the 60s will support afternoon heat indices a few degrees higher than afternoon temperatures.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Wed May 27 2026

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances tonight through Thursday.

Currently have a couple circulations in the tropical-like airmass across the Southern Plains. One is lifting north out of the TX Panhandle, with another one lifting northwest across southeast TX. Showers and iso storms will gradually increase in coverage this evening, especially across southern KS. Current thinking is that around 03z is when the better shower/storm coverage will move into KICT/KHUT and will spread north through Thu morning, affecting most TAF sites. Some MVFR cigs may accompany the increase in precip late tonight through Thu. While at least some iso-sct precip will remain Thu afternoon, we may see a decrease in areal coverage after around 18z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.