textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms continue today into the early evening with heavy rain and flooding possible.

- Dry weekend ahead with comfortable temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Powerful upper low is now lifting out across southwest KS/OK Panhandle with a strong upper jet extending from the TX Panhandle through Central KS. At the surface, low is located near Dodge City with a weak cold front/trough extending from the low into north central KS and southeast NE.

Strong 850-700mb theta-e advection is resulting in a large area of showers and storms moving across central and eastern OK and will lift across the Flint Hills into eastern KS this morning. With extreme PW values still in place, very high rainfall rates will be likely with any of the activity this morning, which could lead to some flooding.

Upper low will quickly slide east and start get sheared apart today. As this occurs, surface low and associated cold front/trough will sink south. So the main area of rainfall for today through the early evening hours will be in the wrap around region of this system as the strong mid level frontogenesis slides south. Any of this activity will likely still produce high rainfall rates and due to the slow movement, flooding will remain the main risk through the late afternoon/early evening hours. Also feel like there will be a chance for the stronger storms to produce some small hail given cooler mid/upper temps and decent deep layer shear. The main limiting factor will be poor mid level lapse rates.

Showers and storms will continue to sink south tonight as the upper trough also slides southeast and by Fri morning, bulk of the rainfall will be south of the forecast area. This will leave dry conditions in place through the weekend as we eventually get into some northwest flow aloft. To start the work week, a deep upper trough will stretch from eastern Ontario/western Quebec and down through the Great Lakes. This will leave upper ridging in place from the Desert Southwest through the Southern Plains. We look to get back into a warming trend for Tue into Wed as the sfc high shifts east allowing Plains to get back into some return flow.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Main aviation concern will be shower and storm chances.

Powerful upper low is continuing to track across southwest KS. For the next couple of hours, mainly southeast KS will only see showers and storms. However, they should quickly fill-in across central KS this morning with this area slowly drifting south throughout the day. They should impact KRSL-KGBD-KSLN anytime after 14-15z and KHUT-KICT in the 19-21z time frame. We should see heavy rain reduce vis to the 2-4sm range as the precip moves through, along with a few storms mixed-in. After 00z, only southern KS will still be seeing precip as some drier air moves- in from the north.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ032-033-047>049.