textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will increase tonight through Sunday with the main chances west of I-135 and in the southwestern portion of our area.

- Gusty southerly winds are likely Tuesday and Wednesday especially for central and portions of south-central Kansas, leading to very high fire danger in a small area of central Kansas.

- Additional rain chances may be possible late next week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

An upper level low is currently over the northeastern US with upper troughing over much of the eastern CONUS. Additional upper troughing extends from the northwestern US through the Central Great Basin into the Four Corners area. Upper ridging continues between these two features over the Northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley. At the surface, expansive high pressure stretches from Ontario down through the Mississippi Valley. Rain showers are ongoing across southwestern Kansas and down into the Texas Panhandle due to 850 mb WAA. As we move into tonight, an upper shortwave will move into northern Texas with rain chances shifting east into Sunday morning. This will bring rain chances early Sunday morning for areas west of I-135 and in the southwestern portion of our area, though the best chances will likely remain in northern Oklahoma. By late Sunday morning, chances will shift to near the KS/OK border with low chances possible through Sunday afternoon as the upper low continues to slide across Texas. By Sunday night, drier conditions are expected across our area with activity remaining south in Oklahoma.

On Monday, upper ridging will build back into the Plains with a gradual warming trend expected throughout the week. An upper trough will move onshore to California on Tuesday and then make its way to the Central Rockies on Wednesday. This will increase surface troughing over the Central Plains on Tuesday and Wednesday bringing gusty southerly winds to the area. The strongest winds are likely in central and portions of south- central KS. Sustained winds are forecast up to 30 mph with gusts up to 40-45 mph. Low rain chances will be possible over eastern Kansas Wednesday night as the upper trough slides across the Plains though there is still some uncertainty. By Thursday, this shortwave is progged to have moved to the Great Lakes area. Additional rain chances will be possible into next weekend as a deeper upper trough moves onshore and progresses east. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 527 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Low ceilings will continue to overspread central and south- central Kansas tonight with MVFR cigs likely impacting RSL and GBD in the next couple hours. Current guidance suggests HUT and ICT will remain just above MVFR thresholds. CNU and SLN will see increasing clouds, but ceilings will remain above 10kft.

A band of rain located to the southwest of TAF sites continues to erode as it battles drier air. Rain chances will increase through the night for central and south-central Kansas as some of this activity manages to push northeastward slightly. Confidence remains low for the coverage of activity, maintained PROB30s for precip mention.

Showers will clear out of the region between 12-14Z and ceilings will begin lifting for most sites by 21Z. Winds will remain out of the southeast through the day, turning southerly after 00Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 143 PM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Very high fire danger will be possible Wed afternoon for mainly Barton and Russell counties.

Southwest winds by Wed afternoon are expected to be sustained around 30 mph with gusts in the 40-45mph range across parts of central KS. RH's will not be very low as they only fall to around 60%. However, with cured grasses, strong south winds will elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.