textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Line of strong to severe storms likely Friday afternoon and evening, mainly southeast of the KS Turnpike.

- Slightly below normal temps for Saturday with a slight warm-up starting Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Water vapor imagery currently show upper shortwave lifting across IA into southern MN with another upper impulse sinking southeast across the Northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front stretches from Northern MO into eastern OK.

We will quickly get back into return flow tonight as surface low develops over NW KS as the upper impulse approaches the Northern High Plains. Confidence remains very high in another cold front to sweep across the area on Fri. There is good model agreement that by 21z, it will be laid out generally along the KS Turnpike. Storms are expected to develop along the front, generally in the 19-21z time frame, near or just southeast of the KS Turnpike, with the Flint Hills and southeast KS being the most affected. With ML CAPE values in the 1,000-2,000J/kg range and effective shear around 35kts, severe storms will be possible, with quarter size hail and 60 mph downburst winds the main threats. Line of storms should stay progressive enough to limit flooding potential and will be exiting southeast KS around 03z.

Deep upper low will be lifting across the Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday as high pressure settles over the Plains. This will provide plenty of sunshine and highs slightly below normal for Saturday. Northwest flow aloft will remain in place across the Plains for the Sun-Mon time frame. A mid level baroclinic zone may bring some light showers to parts of Nebraska and northeast KS, but current thinking is that this activity would stay northeast of the forecast area. Upper flow will start to flatten out for Tue into Wed as some shortwave energy tracks across south central Canada. Confidence starts to drop off beyond Tue as medium range models start to diverge. The differences mainly revolve around how far south a cold front is set to make it for Thu, with the ECMWF more agressive pushing the front south compared to the GFS.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 623 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

VFR conditions will prevail tonight until low clouds begin to develop and expand over south central/southeast Kansas for late tonight into Friday. Low clouds will generally be in the MVFR category with some IFR cigs possible over southeast Kansas. Meanwhile low level wind shear will develop over much of the region for late tonight and is expected to dissipate during the morning hours on Friday. A cold front will push southward across central Kansas during the late morning hours and reach southern Kansas by the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 229 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026

Very high fire danger will be likely Friday afternoon across central Kansas and to a lesser extent on Saturday.

Cold front will move through the area on Friday with gusty northwest winds behind it. By Fri afternoon we are looking for sustained speeds across central KS in the 16-22 mph range with gusts around 30 mph. Meanwhile, RH values in this same location will be in the 25- 30% range. The same overall setup is anticipated for Sat, but with wind speeds around 5-10 mph less, which will result in the low end of very high fire danger for central KS.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.