textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very dangerous fire weather conditions will continue to impact the region this afternoon with strong southwest winds, Red Flag Warning and Wind Advisory headlines are in effect

- A very powerful weather system looks to bring much colder air and strong north winds to the region on Sunday, with a chance for rain and snow showers.

- Warmer temperatures will quickly return for Tuesday-Thursday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Strong west-northwest mid level flow was noted across the western and central CONUS. A deep lee surface trough across eastern CO/western KS, combined with deep mixing, was causing south- southwest winds of 30 to 40 MPH with gust of 40 to near 50 MPH across the northwest counties. The strong surface winds and gusts will continue through the afternoon hours for much of the central, northwest and northern counties of the CWA. Therefore, the wind advisory will continue through 7 PM.

This evening, the low-level jet will increase to around 50 KTS across the central and eastern counties of the CWA. The stronger low- level jet of 60 KTS will develop northeast of the CWA across east central KS and western MO. At this time it looks as if wind gusts of 35 to 40 KTS may develop across the northeast counties through the evening hours but there is some question to how widespread the stronger wind gusts will be across the northeast counties. Not sure if we will keep the dry adiabatic lapse rates after sunset which may constrain parcel momentum transfers down to the surface. The evening shift will need to monitor the LLJ and how much parcel momentum transfer will occur to get wind gusts above 45 MPH. There is a chance that a wind advisory may be needed for the eastern and north central CWA counties this evening, once the wind advisory for the central and western counties expires.

A weak surface front will shift southeast across the CWA late tonight and into the early morning hours of Friday. The weak surface front will become stationary along the OK?KS border on Friday. High temperatures on Friday will reach the lower 60s north to mid 60s south.

Saturday, the mid level flow will become zonal and a lee surface trough will deepen across western NE/eastern CO. The front across northern OK will undergo frontolysis as it shift north. Winds will become southeast and southerly. Wind speeds will increase during the late afternoon and evening to 10 to 20 MPH with some gusts. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 70s across the western counties with mid 70s elsewhere across the CWA.

Big changes are in store for the second half of the weekend. An H5 trough across the Pacific northwest will dig Southeast across the Plains and amplify Sunday. Strong low-level CAA across the northern Plains will send modified arctic air mass southward across the central and southern Plains. Highs on Sunday will be during the 12Z-15Z time period as the front rapidly shifts southward across the CWA. Temperatures may start out in the lower to mid 40s northwest and mid 50s to around 60s south but temperatures will fall through the 30s into the mid to upper 20s northwest and through the 40s into the mid 30s across the remainder of the CWA. Gusty northwest winds will make it feel even colder. The stronger ascent ahead of the amplifying H5 trough will be northeast and east of the CWA but there may be enough ascent and frontogenesis for rain showers that will become mix with and change over to snow showers through the afternoon hours into the early evening before ending. At this time any snow accumulations will be a dusting on grassy surface. Road surface temperatures will be warm. Skies will clear late Sunday night.

If you have any tender plants outdoors they will need to be taken in Sunday night, since overnight lows will drop into the mid to upper teens. Monday will continue to be cold as the center of the surface ridge of high pressure shifts southeast across eastern KS into the lower MS River Valley. Highs across the eastern counties will only reach the mid to upper 30s. Highs in the western counties will be warmer with highs in the mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday through Thursday, expect a warming trend as an H5 ridge across the western US slowly shifts east towards the high Plains. The mid level flow will back from the north-norwest to the west northwest and surface winds will become southerly. Highs Tuesday will warm into the mid 50s east to lower 60s southwest, highs on Wednesday will reach the lower 70s east to upper 70s west, and by Thursday, highs will reach the lower to mid 80s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 619 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Windy conditions will continue to impact much of the area through the evening hours as persistent southwest winds around 20 to 25 knots with gusts around 30-40 knots continue. Winds should slowly decrease after sunset, then a frontal boundary is expected to enter into the area by 04-06Z tonight. Winds will shift to northerly through the morning hours on Friday with wind speeds around 10 knots. Towards the end of the TAF period, winds should begin to flip back around to southerly, again at around 10 knots.

Low-level wind shear will also be a concern tonight through the early morning hours on Friday. A strong low-level jet is expected to develop and overspread much of the region out ahead of the aforementioned cold front. Low-level wind shear should come to an end from northwest to southeast through the morning hours on Friday as the cold front passes through.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 120 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The previous fire discussion looks to be on target. The cirrus looks thin enough to be able to locate hot spots. I placed in Saturday afternoon fire weather concerns.

Extreme fire danger will impact all of central and south central Kansas, with Very High fire danger over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. Southwest winds will begin to increase by mid to late morning and reach peak intensity in the afternoon with gusts up to 50mph at times. We expanded the Red Flag Warning another row of counties to the east for today. High clouds are currently streaming southeast into Nebraska and will continue to spread further southeast today. We will monitor these high cloud trends for today as they could impact our satellite technology for hot spot detection, especially if the thicker high clouds spread across central Kansas.

There may be a slight fire risk Saturday afternoon, with deep mixing and low RHs during the afternoon hours. However, the south-southeast winds look to be too light and do not pick up in speeds until the late afternoon and into the evening.

Fire danger risk could become elevated again on Sunday, however much colder air is expected to blast southward across the region during the day. The timing of these colder temperatures would lower the fire weather risk if it spreads southward faster than the latest projections despite very strong north winds overspreading the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>069-082-083. Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>069-082-083-091>093.