textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and windy conditions today will lead to marginal fire weather concerns and heat indices exceeding 100.

- Storm chances return to central Kansas late tonight/Tuesday morning, then more widespread chances forecast Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday morning. Marginally severe storms and localized flooding are possible.

- Warmer temperatures return for the end of the week, then milder temperatures are forecast for this weekend. A few showers and storms are possible as well towards the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis show upper ridging across the south-central CONUS sandwiched between a pair of deep layer troughs across the northeast CONUS and northern Rockies. The upper ridge will be one one of the main drivers for warmer than average temperatures across much of the forecast area through much of the week while the trough across the northern Rockies will be one of the primary factors in a stalled frontal boundary residing across central/northern Kansas through mid-week potentially leading to several rounds of showers and storms across these areas.

For today, strong southerly low-level flow will usher in a warmer airmass into the region. Additionally, a tight pressure gradient out ahead of a slowly approaching cold front will lead to breezy/windy conditions across much of the forecast area. While mid-level winds aren't crazy, deep mixing caused by strong diurnal heating will help to mix down wind gusts between 35-40 mph, especially this afternoon along and west of I-135. Opted not to go with a wind advisory in central Kansas, but it's possible some locations could briefly see up to 45 mph wind gust for a couple of hours. In addition to the windy conditions, highs across the entire forecast area will rise into the mid to upper 90s. With unseasonably hot conditions, windy conditions, and dry vegetation (even with some recent rainfall), very high grassland fire danger is likely for areas along and west of I-135 this afternoon. That being said, dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns some.

Later tonight into Tuesday morning, a sharp cold front will sag into northern Kansas. Ahead of a lob of vorticity aloft rounding the base of the deep layer trough over the northern CONUS, widespread showers and storms are expected to develop and overspread much of north- central and northeast Kansas. It's possible a couple storms sneak into central Kansas, but much of the activity Monday night into early Tuesday morning will remain along and north of I-70. There could be a lull in precipitation from Tuesday morning into Tuesday afternoon. Then, strong diurnal heating along the frontal boundary along with a weak and subtle upper trough moving east out of the High Plains should be enough to trigger additional showers and storms across most locations except for far southeast Kansas. Based on environmental instability (around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE) and shear (effective shear around 20-25 knots), some strong to marginally severe storms are possible with downbursts producing 50- 60 mph wind gusts being the primary concern. PWATs between 1.7 and 1.9 will support the potential for heavy rainfall as well. Some training of thunderstorms is possible, especially later in the evening hours across portions of central Kansas, which could lead to localized flooding. Storm chances have decreased for Wednesday, and this makes since given the frontal boundary becoming more diffuse and the lack of synoptic support. In fact, much of the activity may be limited to late Wednesday night when mid-level WAA ramps up on the nose of the LLJ, but most showers and storms will be north of I- 70 late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

The forecast becomes a bit more uncertain towards the latter half of the week, especially towards the weekend as the upper pattern becomes a bit ill-defined. However, mid-range guidance this morning suggests upper ridging across the southern CONUS briefly builds back into the central plains on Thursday and Friday leading to afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s, and lows in the low 70s, which is about 10 degrees above average. Then, weak troughing lumbering across the central plains will be the catalyst for a cold front arriving late Friday/early Saturday. At the moment, the forecast calls for milder temperatures for this weekend, but details are subject to change this far out. Additionally, this cold front could also bring another shot at spotty chances for showers and storms.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Despite VFR conditions generally prevailing through the TAF period, a few concerns for aviation interests will need to be monitored.

Southerly winds are forecast to increase this morning and top out this afternoon across the area. Sustained winds this afternoon will be around 15 to 25 knots with gusts around 25 to 40 knots at times. The windiest conditions will be across portions of central Kansas. Then, a very slow moving cold front will approach central Kansas late tonight into early Tuesday morning. Winds across central Kansas will decrease some, and isolated showers and storms will also be possible, mainly towards 12Z Tuesday morning. Meanwhile, LLWS will overspread much of southern and eastern Kansas during the early morning hours on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 340 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could support very high fire danger along and west of I-135 this afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.