textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during the evening, night, morning hours. A handful of strong to severe thunderstorms possible.

- Near to above average temperatures through next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

Model consensus keeps a stout upper ridge anchored across the southern to southwest CONUS the next several days. This will keep the Kansas region within a northwest flow aloft pattern favorable for periodic thunderstorm chances, underneath a persistent mid-level thermal gradient. Unfortunately, predicting exactly when/where thunderstorms will form and track is extremely difficult in patterns like this, making for a low confidence forecast. Seasonable instability combined with modest deep layer shear (with a decent directional component given the NW flow aloft) will support periodic strong to severe storm chances.

Thinking isolated to scattered thunderstorm chances will exist overnight into early this morning generally along/west of the Flint Hills. While a marginally severe storm capable of dime-quarter size hail can't be ruled out given the decent deep layer effective shear, widespread severe weather looks unlikely.

Another signal for scattered elevated thunderstorms exists from early this evening through tonight, as 800-600mb warm advection commences once again ahead of shortwave energy dropping southeast across the upper Midwest. Instability and directional shear combo will favor a few strong to severe thunderstorms. This activity could linger into early Saturday morning.

Much of Saturday and Saturday evening look dry, with additional storm chances arriving from the northwest late Saturday night and Sunday. As mentioned earlier, these off-and-on thunderstorm chances look to continue much of next week.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity of the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Afternoon through early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range, highest over south-central and southeast KS. Not anticipating any heat headline issuances on this shift.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 628 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Hit-or-miss showers and thunderstorms will persist across portions of the southeast quarter of Kansas through about mid- morning today. Small hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy rain may accompany the strongest activity.

Another round of showers and thunderstorms is possible later today through tonight. Uncertainty is high surrounding the timing and location of these showers/thunderstorms, so only included PROB30 groups for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.