textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, mainly across central Kansas.

- Thunderstorm chances increase tonight across primarily central Kansas and last into Thursday. Widespread severe weather is not expected, though the strongest storms may be capable of damaging winds and small hail.

- Continued chances for showers and storms through the weekend, especially late overnight into the early morning hours.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 154 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a flattening upper ridge over the Rockies as an MCV tracks eastward across central Kansas. Isolated showers and thunderstorms have developed as a result of this feature and will remain possible across central Kansas this afternoon. Severe weather appears unlikely at this time.

A slow-moving cold front currently draped across Nebraska will shift southward through the rest of today into the evening hours. Showers and storms are progged to develop near this boundary in the High Plains and track eastward into the forecast area later tonight on the nose of a strengthening LLJ. Locally, the best chances for storms continue to lie in central Kansas and to the north where better instability lies, though uncertainty remains regarding intensity by the time activity reaches the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts remain the primary concern with the strongest activity, though small hail and locally heavy rainfall will be possible as well.

Outflow from storms tonight will drive an effective front southward into southern Kansas throughout the day on Thursday. Convergence along this boundary may result in isolated storms during the late afternoon and evening hours particularly in south central and southeast Kansas, though a solid cap aloft may hinder storm development. Additionally, an MCS coming in off the High Plains will bring more rain chances to the area, though as mentioned in the previous discussion, the track for this feature remains uncertain as some solutions carry this complex as far south as Wichita or as far north as the I-70 corridor. Damaging wind gusts will once again be the primary threats with this activity should storms manage to hold together.

Rain chances will continue Friday into Saturday as the frontal zone stalls out over the forecast area. Damaging winds will continue to be the primary hazard with the strongest activity. Furthermore, additional opportunities for precipitation may return to begin next week with mid/long-range guidance highlighting northeasterly shortwaves reaching the forecast area along the bottom of the upper high. At this point, the best chances appear to reside in southern Kansas, so most of the forecast area is expected to remain dry for this period.

Regarding temperatures, highs in the upper 90s are forecast across southern Kansas for Thursday before a slight cooldown into the low to mid 90s arrives Friday and lasts into the beginning of next week. Models continue to depict a strong mid/upper ridge building across the central CONUS to start next week, though as the prior discussion pointed out, this may actually build too far north for abnormally warm temperatures to be realized in our area. As such, seasonable highs near 90 continue to be forecast Monday through next Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period for all sites. However there are a few showers starting to develop in central KS that have the potential to impact KRSL/KGBD. These could cause some gusty winds as they move though. There is enough instability for TS development but not expecting any storm to become severe at this time although it bears watching as the afternoon progresses.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.