textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are possible this afternoon and tonight and again late Wednesday and Friday.

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and early evening.

- A cool-down is expected for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A mid/upper trough over the Southwest is progged to move ENE into the Central Rockies late today before emerging over the Central High Plains late tonight into early Wednesday. Strong southwest winds through the column are progged to develop downstream over the Central Plains. Much like yesterday, the dryline will be on the move and is expected to mix eastward as we move through the day with deep layer unidirectional flow anticipated in a deeply mixed pbl. However, low level winds are progged to back late in the day as the sfc low moves into Central Kansas. This will allow the low level moisture to return across south central and parts of central KS late in the afternoon or early in the evening which makes for a complicated forecast. The better height falls and large-scale forcing for ascent are expected to arrive this evening and tonight when storm coverage may increase as the LLJ ramps up across south central Kansas. The warm/moist sector is progged to have mid 60 dewpoints resulting in 2500+ J/KG of MLCAPE with steep mid-level lapse rates and deep layer shear of 50+ knots which should support some supercell storms in the warm sector. A tornado threat is expected to increase, especially in the early evening as the LLJ ramps up. The threat for severe storms may linger beyond midnight into the early morning hours.

Another round of severe storms will be possible on Wednesday afternoon and evening. There is a possibility that we have morning showers and storms which could impact what unfolds during the afternoon hours. But given quality moisture in the warm sector and what appears to be rather weak inhibition, we may not need much of a break before storms redevelop.

As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide.

Another mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday where we could see a rogue storm or two during the predawn hours. However, better chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive late in the day and into the evening hours. We continue to see some differences in how this feature will emerge from the Rockies late on Friday which will impact the magnitude and coverage of severe storms with low confidence in the details at this time.

Sat-Mon...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area on Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are only expected to climb into the lower 60s for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Mon with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Low-level wind shear will impact south central and southeast Kansas TAF sites through early Tuesday as the low-level jet ramps up. Some MVFR cigs will be confined to southeast Kansas impacting KCNU through mid-morning before mixing out. Gusty southerly winds may gust around 35-40 knots at times on Tuesday afternoon as the dryline mixes eastward over the area once again. Widely scattered storms will become increasingly likely along and east of the dryline after 21-22Z with severe storms likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 200 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Extreme grassland fire danger is expected again today for areas west of Interstate 135 with very dry air and strong southwest winds developing this afternoon. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9 pm. Dry air will linger across central Kansas through much of the week and with breezy southerly winds returning on Thursday and Friday, a very high grassland fire danger will return for parts of central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.