textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures are forecast this week with highs in the 50s across much of the area.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected to continue through the work week.

- Breezy northerly winds are anticipated on Thursday following the frontal passage.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Upper-level ridging is building into the Northern Plains, keeping our area in northwest flow aloft. At the surface, a low is situated over southwestern KS into northwestern OK. In our area, breezy southerly winds between 20-25 mph continue. As we move into this evening and tonight, southerly winds will start to diminish. Low temperatures are expected to drop into the mid to upper 20s tonight into Tuesday morning. A potent clipper system will move into Ontario on Tuesday with surface troughing extending down all the way to the Southern Plains. This will increase southerly winds in southeast KS to between 10-15 mph with gusts up to 20 mph by late Tuesday morning. By Tuesday afternoon, an upper-level shortwave trough will move into the Southern Plains, but precipitation is not expected in our area given the better moisture with this system will stay well to our south. Highs on Tuesday will range from the lower 50s in southeast KS to the upper 50s in central KS. Similar temperatures are expected on Wednesday with much of the area seeing the upper 50s.

Another clipper system will move into the Northern Plains on Wednesday night, pushing a cold front through our area by Thursday morning. Precipitation associated with this system will likely stay north and east of our area Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but ensemble guidance has probabilities between 10-40% for measurable QPF in our area with the EPS more aggressive than the GEFS. Following the front, northwesterly winds will strengthen with sustained speeds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph. High temperatures will cool slightly on Thursday with much of the area seeing the lower 50s except for central KS where the upper 40s are forecast. As we move into this weekend, flow aloft will shift to zonal for our area. An additional clipper system will move southern Canada/the Northern Plains on Saturday bringing another cold front through our area Saturday night. This front will likely moderate temperatures a bit bringing them closer to normal for Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1104 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Primary concerns for the period continue to be tied to the potential for IFR cigs/vsbys at ICT/HUT/SLN in the 11-15Z timeframe ahead of a stalling surface trough. Run-to-run consistency in short-term ensembles has allowed for reasonable confidence in location and magnitude of impacts to this point, with low-yet-plausible (20-40%) probabilities of LIFR at these sites as well. Decided to keep IFR timing and cigs/vsbys from previous cycle but may have to AMD as additional obs/model runs become available.

Otherwise, gusty south/southwest winds are expected across southeast KS while speeds remain around/under 10 kts in central and south central KS through the afternoon. Winds will veer to the northwest in central KS toward the end of the period as a surface boundary pushes eastward through the region.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 PM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Northwesterly winds will strengthen on Thursday with sustained speeds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 30-40 mph. Stronger winds combined with low relative humidity could lead to very high grassland fire danger on Thursday afternoon. However, there is some uncertainty given the cooler temperatures forecast for Thursday as this could mitigate fire weather concerns. Additionally, very high grassland fire danger is possible again on Friday afternoon as southerly winds will increase to 15-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph combined with low relative humidity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.