textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures Tuesday through Thursday

- Strong cold front arrives Thursday night plunging temperatures into the 10s/20s for Saturday and Sunday

- Increasing potential (40-60%) for light snow Friday and Saturday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 229 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

As of 2 PM Monday afternoon, deep midlevel troughing remains across the Great Lakes region with northerly/northwesterly flow across the Plains. Sunny skies have returned to the area as a midlevel speed max pivoted across KS/MO. A narrow band of snow fell across portions of eastern CO/western KS within the right entrance region of the aforementioned speed max. Otherwise, an area of surface high pressure has settled into central KS with light northerly winds. Despite the sunny skies, temperatures have been slow to warm with most sites still in the 20s. Transitioning into tonight, the area of surface high pressure will slide east as a lee trough deepens across the high Plains. Southerly winds will increase to 10-15 mph overnight with a few gusts up to 20 mph possible. Wind speeds will further strengthen towards midday Tuesday as the surface pressure gradient increases; gusts up to 30 mph are possible. The southerly winds will usher in warmer temperatures as highs approach 50 degrees areawide. A weak shortwave trough will dive across the central Plains late Tuesday into Wednesday, shunting the aforementioned surface trough through the area. Quickly on its heels, an area of surface high pressure will slide across the high Plains of CO/TX Wednesday morning, resulting in westerly low-level flow by Wednesday afternoon. This downslope flow will allow temperatures to remain in the 40s to near 50 once again. The next perturbation will slide across the mid-MO valley late Wednesday into Thursday, shunting the next cold front through the area. Temperatures will top out in the 40s Thursday afternoon.

The main concern over the next 7 days arrives Friday into Saturday. A strong shortwave trough is poised to eject across the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday, plunging an Arctic airmass across the Plains. Friday morning temperatures will range from the single digits across central KS to the teens across southern KS. Factoring in a northern breeze up to 20 mph will create wind chill values as cold as -10. The cold plunge will continue into Friday and Saturday as NBM probabilities continue to increase for daytime highs remaining into the teens each day. As it stands now, Friday's probabilities range from near 25% along the OK border to near 70% along I-70. These probabilities expand and increase to 60-75% areawide for Saturday afternoon. In regards to overnight lows, NBM probabilities range from 70-80% areawide for temperatures less than 10 degrees Saturday and Sunday mornings. Factoring in the continued north wind will create wind chill values as cold as -20 Saturday and Sunday mornings.

In regards to precipitation chances, the shortwave trough passage across the Great Lakes will strengthen a midlevel jet streak from the mid-MS valley through the northeast US. It's becoming increasingly likely the right entrance of this jet streak will setup across portions of central/southern KS; providing sufficient large scale ascent for light snow Friday and Saturday. There remains uncertainty with the exact position of the jet streak (area of best ascent) and the depth of dry air, which will directly affect snow totals. As it stands now, southern KS stands the greatest potential for accumulating snow. These details will become more- clear as the week progresses, continue to check back for updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 523 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Surface high is expected to sink southeast tonight, allowing winds to turn to the southwest. They will remain out of the southwest through Tuesday with gusts in the 25 to 30mph range possible. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.