textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures continue through Thursday followed by near normal temperatures.

- Shower and storm chances returning Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Current water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough over the Central Rockies with an additional upper-level trough coming onshore to northern California. At the surface, a low sits over northwestern Kansas with a warm front extending down through central Kansas into central Oklahoma.

Tonight, the aforementioned surface low will move across Kansas, shifting into Missouri by Tuesday morning. Before winds shift to northwesterly, southerly winds in south-central and southeast Kansas will advect moisture into the area, allowing dewpoints to rise into the upper 50s especially in southeast Kansas. This will likely lead to patchy fog in the overnight hours into Tuesday morning in southeast Kansas with some areas possible in south-central Kansas. Northwesterly winds will start to increase to 10-20 mph Tuesday morning, slowly decreasing into Tuesday afternoon. High temperatures will be slightly cooler on Tuesday ranging from the lower 60s in central KS to the lower 70s in southeast KS.

The next upper-level trough is progged to move into the Desert Southwest on Wednesday night. Chances for rainfall will start to increase on Wednesday night as WAA/moisture advection increases. Dewpoints are likely to rise into the lower 50s in south-central and the upper 50s in southeast KS. Instability will be generally between 500-1000 J/kg in southern KS making some storms possible Wednesday night; however, stronger instability is expected to stay south of the area. The best chances for rainfall Wednesday night are in southeast KS where better moisture is expected with PWATS between 1- 1.25". Widespread precipitation chances will increase Thursday into Friday across much of the forecast area as synoptic lift increases from the approaching trough moving out of the Desert Southwest. With multiple perturbations in the upper-level flow, a few rounds of precipitation will be possible in this time period. Outside of precipitation, above normal temperatures are expected Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the 60s before near normal temperatures return late this week with highs in the 50s on Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

LOW CLOUDS/VISIBILITIES...MVFR ceilings will gradually clear from west to east this afternoon, possibly lingering into the evening at the CNU TAF site. Later tonight into early Tuesday, a surge of boundary layer moisture advection may support IFR or even LIFR ceilings/visibilities at CNU, but for now didn't hit too hard in the 18z TAFs. Also, could be looking at patchy fog late tonight into early Tuesday in vicinity of ICT. For now only did an MVFR TEMPO group, but HREF visibility probabilities support potential IFR or lower, so later shifts will need to monitor. Finally, SCT-BKN MVFR clouds may increase from the north Tuesday morning for mainly RSL-GBD-SLN TAF sites, due to cold advection in wake of a cold front moving south.

WINDS...Breezy/gusty south winds will prevail today ahead of stout low pressure skirting east across the region, with slackening winds by early evening. Expect another round of breezy/gusty northwest winds spreading southeast across the region Tuesday in wake of the cold front.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.