textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front arrives tonight plunging temperatures into the single digits/teens for Friday through Monday morning; wind chills as cold as -20

- Accumulating snow Friday afternoon/night through Sunday morning/early afternoon; several inches expected, highest amounts across southern KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

As of 130 PM Thursday afternoon, longwave midlevel troughing remains across the eastern CONUS. A shortwave trough was rotating around an area of midlevel low pressure in Ontario with an attendant strong cold front stretching from the UP of MI through northern SD. Latest observations behind the front reveal a very cold airmass with temperatures in the -10 to -25 range. This frontal zone will sweep across the area late this evening into the overnight hours. Temperatures will tumble tonight with Friday morning temperatures ranging from the single digits across central KS to the teens across southern KS. Factoring in a northern breeze up to 30 mph will create wind chill values as cold as -20 with the coldest across central KS. Temperatures will remain steady in the single digits and teens throughout the day Friday. Continued northerly wind gusts up to 20-25 mph will create wind chills below zero. The polar plunge continues into Friday night as overnight lows range from -5 to +5 with the coldest across central KS. Fortunately, the surface pressure gradient will gradually weaken into the overnight hours. Although light winds will still create dangerous wind chills of -10 to -20 areawide by Saturday morning. Temperatures will moderate slightly into Saturday afternoon with daytime highs reaching the positive single digits/low teens for most locations. Factoring in wind speeds up to 20 mph will continue to create sub-zero wind chill values. The bitter cold will continue Saturday night through Monday with lows near/below zero and highs in the teens Sunday and 20s Monday. Again, the northerly winds up to 20 mph will create wind chills as cold as -20. A Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect from Friday morning through Monday morning.

In regards to the upcoming snow storm, the only notable change is a continued slowing of the main western trough. This is likely to result in a delayed onset but a longer duration of snow into Sunday. The approach of a western CONUS trough will strengthen a surface trough across the high Plains Friday. Forecast soundings reveal long, veering hodographs across much of the Plains suggesting increasing low and midlevel WAA. An impressively dry boundary layer, characterized of dew point depressions on the order of 25-35 degrees will delay snow onset times Friday afternoon/night. The strengthening WAA will result in a gradual expansion of snowfall late Friday evening and Friday night with wetbulb saturation occurring across much the area by late Friday evening. Furthermore, a shortwave trough passage across the Great Lakes will strengthen a midlevel jet streak from the upper Midwest through the northeast US late Friday into Saturday. WAA will subside into the daytime hours Saturday and will likely result in a decrease in snow coverage into Saturday afternoon. Continued jet dynamics should allow for occasional snow showers into the afternoon however. Large scale ascent will increase once again Saturday evening into Saturday night as the main western trough advances towards the Plains with midlevel height falls and a coupled jet evolving across portions of central, south-central, and southeast KS. By Sunday morning, the best forcing for ascent will begin exit the area from west to east, ending snowfall with its progression.

Now for the main question, how much snowfall can be expected? Like previously mentioned, the forecast remains largely unchanged with QPF and snow amounts on track. This particular setup is quite unique with an anomalously cold airmass. That being said, forecast soundings continue to reveal a deep isothermal layer throughout the dendritic growth zone (from 1-4km) late Friday into Sunday. This combined with the bitterly cold temperatures will support above climatology snow to liquid ratios. Latest NBM 25th to 75th percentile guidance continue to suggest snow-to-liquid now ranging from 17-20:1. Confidence continues to increase with regards to QPF amounts and locations. Latest ensemble guidance remain largely unchanged with areas across southern KS receiving the greatest QPF. NBM 25-75th QPF spread range from 0.4-0.8" across southern KS to roughly 0.3-0.6" along I-70. This results in snow totals ranging from 5 to 9" with locally higher amounts likely. Like prior forecasts, the highest amounts are expected across southern KS. The consistency and alignment of ensemble guidance has resulted in sufficient confidence to upgrade the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Storm Warning from midday Friday through midday Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1122 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light southeasterly winds with clear skies continue across the forecast area this afternoon. Winds will turn northeasterly around 00Z with the approach of a cold front. Winds will increase with gusts reaching between 25 to 30 knots around 06Z through the end of the forecast period. Ceilings will also begin to lower after 06Z, but should remain at VFR levels through midday Friday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Cold Weather Advisory from 6 AM Friday to noon CST Monday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Storm Warning from noon Friday to noon CST Sunday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.