textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy freezing drizzle possible tonight into Monday morning, primarily across central KS.

- Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

- Additional chances for showers and storms Thursday and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight northwest flow aloft with a subtle mid-level shortwave moving across Kansas. Warm- air advection associated with this feature resulted in a combination of sleet, small hail, and rain showers earlier today across the area. These will continue shifting east through the rest of the afternoon and evening. We could see some lingering and redevelopment in southeast KS through the overnight hours, with the rest of the area expected to see light drizzle beginning later tonight and lasting into Monday morning. Light freezing drizzle/fog remains possible in central Kansas tonight as well, with temperatures forecast just below freezing and weak isentropic ascent across the area. Per prior discussions, warm ground temperatures are largely expected to mitigate impacts, though some surfaces may be slick Monday morning especially if cooler temperatures pan out.

A brief lull in precipitation is expected Monday morning (per HREF probabilities) before chances for rain showers return in the afternoon. These on-and-off chances will linger through Wednesday ahead of a positively-tilted shortwave rolling in off the Rockies into the Central Plains. Mid-range guidance especially highlights Tuesday afternoon and evening with the potential for some strong storms, with instability up to 1000 J/kg alongside 50 kts of effective shear allowing for gusty winds and small hail in the strongest activity. Efficient and heavy rainfall is also possible with PW values around 1" heading into the overnight hours.

The active pattern is expected to continue for the latter half of the week with long-term models bringing another mid-level wave across the western CONUS and into the Central Plains on Thursday. There appears to be a little more agreement among GFS/Canadian/Euro deterministic models for this run as all support showers and storms developing late Thursday into Friday morning ahead of the associated surface low. Strong to marginally severe storms still look possible with this system, so stay tuned as additional information becomes available.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Aviation concerns will be storms through the afternoon with sleet potential over central KS and freezing drizzle late tonight into Mon morning.

Storms quickly developed late this morning as 850-700mb theta-e advection ramped-up. They will continue to track off to the northeast with KSLN and KCNU having the best chance to see a storm. Some small hail or sleet will be possible with the stronger storms. For tonight, low levels are still expected to saturate with some pockets of fog or drizzle/freezing drizzle possible along with IFR/LIFR cigs. Locations generally north of Highway 50 will have the best chance to see some freezing drizzle late tonight into Mon morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 319 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Warm and breezy conditions Tuesday afternoon will result in marginal very high grassland fire danger across southern KS, then again on Thursday and Friday afternoons in central KS. However, rainfall is expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.