textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are likely this afternoon into the evening with the best chances in southeast KS. Severe storms are not expected.

- Isolated showers and storms will be possible again on Saturday; severe weather is not anticipated.

- Warming trend is forecast for this weekend into early next week with heat indices near 105 on Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Upper ridging remains over the Plains and into the eastern CONUS with an upper shortwave trough over western Texas. An upper low is spinning off the coast of the northwest US. At the surface, high pressure sits over North Dakota as well as the Lower Mississippi Valley. A cold front extends down into South Dakota from a surface low in northern Minnesota. In our area, moisture has increased with dewpoints rising into the low to mid 70s with the highest dewpoints in southeast KS. PWATs are around 2" which is near the maximum for this time of year with instability increasing, resulting in scattered showers and storms ongoing in southern Kansas. This activity is expected to continue into this evening with chances decreasing after sunset. Given bulk 0-6km and effective wind shear are under 10 kts, severe storms are not expected. The main impacts will be heavy rainfall and occasional lightning.

On Saturday, the upper ridge axis will start shifting into the Northern Plains, allowing high pressure to expand across the Northern Plains. A slight warming trend will start on Saturday as highs rise into the low 90s areawide. This moist airmass will remain across the area with PWATs between 1.75-2". Minimal surface and mixed layer inhibition is expected by late morning/early afternoon, making additional shower and storm chances possible, though activity will remain more isolated compared to this afternoon. Severe weather is not expected again given the lack of wind shear.

For Sunday into Monday, the upper ridge will deamplify slightly over the Plains as an upper shortwave slides across southern Canada into the Northern Plains on Monday and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by late Monday afternoon. Highs will be around 100 areawide on Monday afternoon as above normal 850 mb temperatures are expected. Surface dewpoints will range from the lower 60s in central KS to near 70 in southeast KS, allowing heat indices to rise between 100- 105. As the upper shortwave traverses from the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley, a cold front will push south through the Central Plains into our area by Tuesday morning. Depending on how far south the cold front makes it by Tuesday afternoon will determine high temperatures. Highs north of the front are progged to be in the lower 90s with highs around 100 south of the front. Heat indices in southern KS will be between 100-105 with some areas in southeast KS potentially approaching 110. This front will push south of our area on Wednesday, returning high temperatures to the low 90s across the area. Northwesterly flow aloft is progged to return mid to late next week which may increase rain chances both Wednesday and Thursday night; however, given how far out this is, confidence is low at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

Most areas will experience VFR this afternoon but some transient MVFR could materialize in parts of south central and southeast KS with some scattered shower activity or a rogue thunderstorm with clouds mostly in the 4-7k ft range. Breezy southerly winds with some gusts around 20 knots will also be possible, especially near the shower activity. Wind speeds will diminish after 23Z while VFR prevails tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.