textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Max temps today around 15 degrees above normal, with widespread 60s and some 70s even a possibly for areas west of I-135.

- Cool down will commence on Friday with the main surge of very cold air moving-in Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. Highs on Sunday are not expected to make it above freezing.

- We quickly get back to above normal temperatures for most of next week with the dry conditions continuing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Currently have a shortwave trough stretching from Eastern Ontario, through the Eastern Great Lakes region and into the Appalachians. This leaves strong northwest flow through the Plains. At the surface, high pressure stretches through the Mississippi Valley with lee troughing from eastern WY into eastern CO.

A series of upper perturbations, currently located over southern BC/southern Alberta, will track southeast and will be moving into the Mid Mississippi Valley by early this evening. As this occurs, lee troughing will continue to strengthen, allowing west and southwest downslope winds to overspread the forecast area this afternoon. Strong downslope will combine with unseasonably warm 850mb temps to boost maxes today into the 60s and around 70 for areas west of I-135 where mixing will be deeper. The record at KRSL will be in jeopardy today as it currently stands at 66 degrees.

As the weak upper impulse continues to slide southeast, some cold air will start to spill south across the Plains on Fri. However, this is not going to be an abrupt cold surge, but rather a gradual cool-down with the more significant cold air still way north of the forecast area. There is good model agreement that a more robust upper impulse will track out of western Ontario and into the Northern Great Lakes by Sat morning. At the same time a fast moving piece of energy will track from Southern SK into the Upper Mississippi Valley. This will allow a much colder airmass to surge south for Sat afternoon through Sat night. We are still looking for highs on Sun to not make it above freezing, with some of our eastern areas not making it out of the 20s.

Pattern will remain very progressive as the shortwave trough tracks off of the East Coast by Sun evening, getting the Plains back into northwest flow aloft. This will quickly push the colder air east with slightly above normal temps forecast for Mon with highs back into the 50s by Tue. The week upper impulse that was expected to move out across the Southern Plains on Tue has now taken a more southerly track. So still not looking for any precip through the next 7 days and likely beyond.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1130 AM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Low pressure near the surface is progged to develop over the Central Plains late today while moving rapidly south and eastward across the area. This will result in veering of the sfc winds ahead of a cold front expected to arrive tonight. This front will shift winds to the northwest with only some mid and high clouds anticipated through the period. Gusty northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will be common on Friday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.