textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Scattered rain showers will continue this morning then taper off for this afternoon
- Next weather system will bring more rain chances to the region for Monday-Tuesday along with chances for a few strong or possible severe storms on Monday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 158 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Scattered rain showers will continue this morning and gradually shift northeast of the area by mid to late afternoon, as upper- level wave moves across Kansas today and shifts into Missouri tonight. Cloudy skies and light southeast winds with some patchy areas of drizzle will be possible this Halloween evening. Things dry out for Sunday as upper level ridging builds over Kansas. Meanwhile current satellite water vapor imagery shows next weather system over the eastern Pacific. This system will move east across the Rockies and eject out into the central plains on Monday causing south winds to increase. The atmospheric destabilization potential hinges primarily on the timing of this upper-level wave ejecting into Kansas. Should morning showers/storms develop and persist into the afternoon, destabilization could be limited. However, wind shear levels are forecasted to strengthen throughout the afternoon and night time hours. Consequently, if instability builds alongside the increasing wind shear, a few strong to severe storms may develop on Monday.
Models show upper level system gradually shifting east of Kansas for late Tuesday afternoon with deformation zone of lift and associated rain showers pivoting across the area during the day. A lull in the precipitation activity looks to follow for Wednesday and Thursday with daytime highs near seasonal values for early November.
AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 615 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026
Mid level clouds and scattered rain showers will linger over the region through the morning hours. Cigs at times will drop into the MVFR category for a few locations with rain showers tapering off by mid-late afternoon. Lower cigs are expected to spread over the area late tonight with IFR levels possible.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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