textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms possible late this afternoon into the early overnight hours mainly in southeast and southern KS with severe storms and flooding possible.

- Periodic storm chances will be possible for much of the week with chances increasing Tuesday night and continuing through Friday.

- Below normal high temperatures are forecast through Friday with highs in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

An upper shortwave trough is tracking east out of the Central Rockies into the Central Plains with a surface low in northwestern Oklahoma and a cold front extending from this low into central KS. For later this afternoon into early tonight, storm development is expected along the front as it continues to slowly push south with the main chances in southeast KS and portions of our southern most counties. Instability will increase from diurnal heating and dewpoints rising into the mid to upper 70s, resulting in MUCAPE values between 3000-3500 J/kg. This instability combined with 40 kts of effective shear, DCAPE values up to 1200 J/kg, and mid-level lapse rates between 7-7.5 C/km will be sufficient for severe storms to develop with damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall as the primary hazards. A brief landspout tornado can't be ruled out this evening as low-level wind shear and 0-3km CAPE increases, though chances remain very low. These storm chances will decrease into the early overnight hours as activity shifts south into Oklahoma. There is a low chance for storms to clip the western fringes of our area tonight as storms roll off the High Plains into western Kansas but the better chances should stay west of the area.

Drier conditions are expected as we move into Monday morning and throughout the day Monday. A shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains Monday night with a weaker wave moving into the Central and Southern Rockies which will initiate another round of storms Monday night into Tuesday morning. There is a very low chance this activity impacts southern KS with the better chances remaining south in Oklahoma. Storm chances will be possible on Tuesday afternoon with about a 30% chance for areas along and west of I-135 as storms dive south out of Nebraska. Better chances will arrive Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a stronger shortwave slides across the Northern Plains with a LLJ anticipated to increase across the Southern Plains into Kansas. Shower and storm chances are expected to decrease throughout the day on Wednesday.

This active pattern will continue through Friday as flow aloft continues to be westerly to northwesterly over the Central Plains with embedded shortwaves progged to slide across the region. This will result in storms rolling off the High Plains into our area with the highest chances in the evenings into the overnight hours, keeping periodic rain chances through much of the week. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the work week which is about 5-10 degrees below normal for this time of year. A pattern chance is expected this weekend as upper ridging moves into the Plains with a deep upper trough digging into the Northern Intermountain. Thickness will increase aiding in warmer temperatures with highs likely to rise into the 90s over the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Additional widely scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop later this afternoon and persist through the evening over portions of southern Kansas, possibly impacting CNU and ICT). Additional thunderstorms activity may move east-southeast out of western KS this evening, possibly reaching RSL-GBD-HUT this evening. In all instances, large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest activity.

Later tonight, there is high probability that MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings will build in from the north, persisting through Monday morning for most TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for KSZ070>072-092>096- 098>100.