textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe thunderstorms expected this afternoon into the overnight hours. Large to very large hail, damaging winds, tornadoes, and heavy rainfall are all possible.

- Cooler weather begins Tuesday, with highs in the 60s and low 70s through at least Thursday.

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Wednesday night into the weekend. Widespread severe weather is not expected at this time, but could see a few strong to severe storms toward the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1253 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a potent mid/upper trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the Central Plains. Surface analysis early this afternoon depicts a stalled quasi-cold front spanning from north central KS south/southwest into the OK Panhandle, while a surface low pressure resides near KGBD.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon along the stalled front. With mixed-layer CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg and 35-45 kts of deep-layer shear, storms should grow severe rather quickly, especially early on prior to storm interactions. As prior discussions have mentioned, mostly boundary- parallel shear will promote a messy linear mode with embedded supercell structures. Given the environment, however, initial development will likely be discrete/semi-discrete and supercellular in nature. This will allow for large to very large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. We could also see a few landspout tornadoes primarily across central KS given the slow-moving nature of the boundary. The timing for these higher end severe threats appears to be through 8 PM. In addition to these threats, heavy rain arising from training storms may result in flooding concerns, especially in central KS where soils have already been saturated from yesterday's heavy rainfall.

As the aforementioned trough continues to eject to the northeast into the Northern Plains this evening, the cold front will pick up speed and progress to the southeast. As this morning's discussion highlighted, this will likely decrease the threat for very large hail and supercell/landspout tornadoes with the growth transitioning into a mostly linear mode. This transition will promote more of a wind threat, but could still see large hail with this activity given the ample instability continuing into the overnight hours. Also can't rule out a few tornadic circulations within the line due to the strong low-level shear/SRH, but this threat should remain low relative to this afternoon's chances.

Storm chances will largely exit the region with the departure of the cold front, though far southeast KS could see some lingering showers and storms through the day on Tuesday. Cooler temperatures are forecast throughout the area as well, with the post-frontal airmass promoting afternoon highs in the 60s and 70s through at least Thursday. With the right entrance region of the upper jet progged to linger across the Central/Northern Plains, chances for showers and storms are expected to arrive Wednesday night and last into the weekend. At this point, it appears that Friday will hold the next potential for strong to severe storms given the return of instability and reasonable deep-layer shear. Details this far out are quite uncertain, though widespread severe weather appears unlikely to this point. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1231 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

A broken line of thunderstorms will continue marching east- southeast across southeast KS overnight, exiting far southeast KS by around 09z. The strongest activity will be capable of quarter size hail, 65 mph winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall. Lingering instability and lift may support additional hit-or-miss shower/thunderstorm development in back of this line further west-northwest across portions of central and eastern KS through the predawn hours, but confidence is low and coverage should be fairly spotty. These spotty hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms could linger over southeast KS through about midday.

Otherwise, mostly MVFR ceilings (with localized IFR ceilings) will persist across the region overnight, gradually turning VFR from west to east during the day Tuesday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.