textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very high grassland fire danger is possible across southeast and central Kansas due to warm, dry, and breezy conditions.

- Precipitation chances Sunday midday through Monday afternoon. Sleet and/or freezing rain possible along I-70 Sunday evening through Monday morning.

- Continued chances for showers and storms continue through much of work week next week. Possible heavy rainfall towards the middle and latter portions of the week, especially across eastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 348 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and RAP analysis show broad upper troughing across the northern and eastern CONUS, and upper ridging across the southwestern CONUS and northern Mexico. At the surface, a powerful mid-latitude cyclone is located over Ontario and Quebec with a cold front stretched out across the Great Lakes region and into the central plains. A potent surface ridge is forecast to slide southward into the northern plains helping to push a much cooler airmass southward into the area late tonight into Sunday. However, prior to the arrival of this airmass, another warm day is expected today with widespread highs in the 70s across the forecast area. A few locations reaching 80 degrees cannot be ruled out across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas this afternoon. Breezy conditions both ahead of, and behind, the cold front will support marginal very high grassland fire danger across portions of central and southeast Kansas this afternoon. Lastly, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across far southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. These will primarily be supported by lift ahead of the cold front; however, stout capping should keep coverage low. Chances for showers across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening remain below 20%.

As mentioned previously, a much cooler airmass is forecast to surge into the area overnight tonight into Sunday morning. This low-level CAA is anticipated to remain quite persistent throughout the day on Sunday which could lead to midnight highs for much of the region. Additionally, increasing mid-level WAA ahead of the next system arriving on scene will support the development of light precipitation developing across the eastern half of Kansas by Sunday afternoon. Unfortunately, there is still quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast for central Kansas. However, currently it appears as though light precipitation may initially start as rain Sunday afternoon before transitioning to sleet or freezing rain Sunday evening. Minute details regarding how warm the warm nose is, and how cold the shallow cold airmass gets will determine the exact precipitation type across central Kansas. Additionally, guidance shows the possibility some of this precipitation could be drizzle, especially late Sunday night into Monday morning. There is also some questions about the spatial and temporal coverage of precipitation, and a scenario where very few locations across central Kansas see no precipitation at all Sunday and Monday is certainly a possibility. The one aspect of the forecast that has seen an increase in confidence over the past 24 hours is that temperatures Sunday night into Monday morning along the I-70 corridor should fall below freezing, perhaps even into the upper 20s. Pulling this all together, its no mystery as to why potential impacts are extremely difficult to pin down at this time. Should all of the wintry precipitation fall as freezing rain or drizzle, the possibility for travel impacts increases quite a bit. Despite warm ground temperatures due to near record warmth the past couple of days, icy spots on bridges and overpasses would be a concern should this scenario play out. However, if much of the precipitation falls as sleet, impacts to travel would likely be much more minor. For other areas across the forecast area (south-central & southeast Kansas), any precipitation that falls will most likely be just rain. However, QPF across the entire forecast area will be on the light side, likely remaining below 0.10".

Coverage in precipitation during the day on Monday should remain isolated, and with temperatures forecast to warm well-above freezing, any precipitation that falls will be all rain. However, periodic chances for showers will steadily increase and persist Monday night through the end of the work week as an active pattern settles in across the central plains. Mid-range deterministic and ensemble guidance has consistently signaled that the best chances for precipitation will be Tuesday morning through Wednesday night. Additional rainfall is possible beginning on Friday and heading into the weekend. While guidance doesn't explicitly suggest excessive rainfall at this time, PWATs well over an inch across southeast Kansas (which is towards the upper-end of climatology for this time of year) suggest heavy rain is possible Tuesday and Wednesday. Despite the modest concerns for the potential of localized flooding, this will likely be a welcome rainfall event as drought conditions have started to encroach on the southern and eastern portions of Kansas. Stay tuned to the forecast for additional updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 552 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Isolated showers have developed across portions of central and eastern Kansas this morning. Occasional lightning strikes are possible this activity. Chances that this activity impacting any one TAF site is low, so this mention was omitted from the 12Z TAFs, but brief heavy rainfall and lightning strikes may be possible in any location that sees a shower or storm.

After 15Z, VFR conditions should prevail. A cold front will sweep across the area today. While winds will remain around 5 to 15 knots throughout the day, the wind direction will shift from southerly to northeasterly as the front passes by. By 06Z tonight, winds will be uniform out of the east or northeast at around 10 to 15 knots.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 348 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and breezy conditions will lead to marginal very high grassland fire danger for a brief period this afternoon across portions of central and southeast Kansas. With widespread precipitation in the forecast beginning on Sunday, fire weather concerns will be dampened over the next week or so.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.