textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures for today through Thursday.

- Thunderstorms likely Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Some could be strong to severe, especially along and east of I-135.

- Additional chances for showers and storms Sat/Sun.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 138 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Currently, broad ridging extends across much of the central CONUS with deep troughs situated along either coast. A weak, subtle shortwave trough sits over the Upper Midwest with an associated surface low near the Great Lakes. A weak boundary extends south from this feature through the Plains. Under the ridge, temperatures today will reach into the middle 80s across Central Kansas with middle to upper 70s for South-central and Southeastern Kansas. As the shortwave pushes east and the boundary extends further south, temperatures for Wednesday will tick down a few degrees with highs generally in the lower to middle 70s and a few locations in Central Kansas approaching 80 degrees. Breezy southerly winds are expected each day with sustained winds between 15-25 mph and gusts between 30- 35 mph possible.

For Thursday, the deep trough that is currently just off the Pacific coast will traverse eastward and will be centered over the Rockies by Thursday morning. An elongated surface low will be stretched over the High Plains with a frontal boundary pushing into our area. Temperatures ahead of this next frontal boundary will reach into the 80s for most on Thursday afternoon. This boundary will be the focus of our next chance at severe weather on Thursday afternoon and evening. With ample MUCAPE (2000-3000 J/kg) and shear between 30-40 kts, initial supercellular development is anticipated with an isolated tornado threat. But storm motion will lead to a broken line of storms where strong winds and large hail will be the primary concerns.

Cooler, near normal, temperatures will prevail for Friday behind the front with a few lingering showers in Southeast Kansas. The front will stall to our south on Friday, then by Saturday it will begin to lift back over our area as a warm front. Instability will increase through the evening hours on Saturday leading to what looks like an evening/overnight thunderstorm risk. Another potent shortwave trough will then swing through the area on Sunday. Sufficient instability and shear will lead to additional severe chances developing late Sunday afternoon and lasting through the evening hours, primarily across Southern and Southeastern Kansas. Details for both Sat/Sun events will continue to be refined in the coming days. Behind Sunday's system, clearing skies and near normal temperatures are anticipated to begin next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 544 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

MVFR/IFR conditions are expected to arrive later this evening and tonight across south central and southeast KS before eventually lifting to VFR Wednesday.

Stout south winds are forecast to continue overnight with sustained speed in the 12-17 kt range. MVFR ceilings currently observed at KWLD/KWDG will continue pressing northward and are expected to impact KICT/KHUT, with continued impacts at KCNU. These may even drop to IFR per HREF/RAP point soundings, so decided to hold for this issuance. There remains some uncertainty as to whether the greater impacts will reach KGBD/KSLN/KRSL, so decided to hold at MVFR for this issuance. Will AMD as additional obs and model trends become available.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 358 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds alongside above normal temperatures and low humidity will support very high grassland fire danger in areas west of K-14 during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.