textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and rumbles of thunder possible through this evening across far southeast Kansas. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- Thunderstorms expected late Thursday into Friday morning, then again Friday afternoon. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary concerns with the strongest activity.

- Quiet weather this weekend before rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight a mid/upper shortwave translating eastward over the Central Plains. Elevated showers continue making their way through southeast KS ahead of this feature. Though we may see redevelopment for these areas largely east of the Flint Hills, we expect the area to largely remain dry through the overnight hours as forcing shifts toward the Mississippi River Valley.

Mid/upper energy currently situated over the Pacific Northwest will serve as the catalyst for weather over the next several days across the Plains. This feature is progged to dig into the Desert Southwest on Thursday before lifting through the Rockies late Thursday night into Friday morning. Lee troughing across the High Plains will promote strengthening southerly flow across the forecast area throughout the day Thursday, and broad synoptic ascent from a subtle lead wave will allow for the return of showers and storms across the Southern Plains tracking into Kansas. HREF guidance brings these in just a little earlier than previously thought, with activity anticipated to reach our southern edge around 8 PM or so with coverage expanding through the overnight period. Elevated shear and instability continue to support quarter sized hail and 60 mph winds across central and south central KS heading into Friday morning.

Mid-range models continue to highlight a second round of showers and storms across the area Friday afternoon and evening as the mid-level wave ejects out of the Rockies. Ample moisture and shear are expected to promote thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds, though storm mode to this point remains uncertain owing to model discrepancies in dryline/cold front/surface low positioning. Solutions like the GFS/NAM would initially support supercell development across the area, while the Euro brings the associated cold front through the region a little quicker and would push storm mode to primarily more of a linear nature. Regardless of how it pans out, hazards for this period will likely continue to be large hail and damaging winds, with a tornado or two possible especially if a storm is able to remain discrete heading into Friday night.

Relatively quiet weather is expected to follow in the wake of this second system as high pressure settles in over the forecast area. Long-range guidance brings another system across the Plains to start next week, though details at this range remain uncertain. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Continued moist low-levels and light winds should support increasing widespread fog potential later tonight through about mid-morning Thursday, with IFR and LIFR conditions probable. There's still some uncertainty on extent and magnitude of the fog/low clouds, so didn't hit it too hard in the 00z TAFs. Thinking the best potential for dense fog will be generally west of the Flint hills where skies could clear or become partially clear for a time the first half of the night, intensifying radiational cooling.

Otherwise, breezy/gusty south winds will develop by mid-late morning Thursday as low pressure deepens over the High Plains. Increasing low-level moisture advection should support SCT-BKN MVFR clouds (possibly high IFR) through the day. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from the southwest Thursday evening and night, which is beyond the valid TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm and breezy conditions Thursday afternoon will result in very high grassland fire danger across central KS, then again on Friday afternoon across the forecast area. However, rainfall is expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

Very high grassland fire danger may return to the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.