textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and storm chances are anticipated for Saturday and Sunday with potentially some strong to severe storms both days. Sunday could have higher impact severe weather though uncertainty is high.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected for Monday afternoon through Tuesday with shower and storm chances returning on Wednesday and Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 347 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Currently, there is an upper low over Saskatchewan stretching into the Northern Plains with broad upper troughing extending into the Central Rockies and Central Plains. At the surface, high pressure is over parts of the Northern Plains and will continue shifting east into the Upper Mississippi Valley this afternoon. A low is developing over eastern Colorado with the pressure gradient tightening over the high Plains.

As we move into tonight, an upper shortwave will move into the Central Rockies and then eject out into Kansas by Saturday morning. This shortwave combined with 700 mb WAA will help to initiate some elevated showers and storms in parts of northwest and central KS on Saturday morning. This activity looks to spread to south-central KS as WAA continues into the afternoon. Diurnal heating may be limited given the expected cloud cover, though with some breakage in clouds, model guidance is suggesting instability values around 1500 J/kg. This combined with about 40 kts of effective shear and steep mid- level lapse rates could support large hail and damaging winds. An isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out if a surface based storm develops, though given the modest instability and 0-3km SRH between 150-175 m2/s2, chances are pretty low. Better moisture and stronger instability is likely to stay south of the area in Oklahoma. As the upper shortwave continues to move east, any strong to severe storm looks to develop Saturday afternoon into the night.

Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper shortwave moving into the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into central KS by Sunday afternoon. Low-level moisture will increase on Sunday morning and continue into the afternoon which may result in drizzle and low- level clouds especially in southern KS. The warm front is progged to set up in Oklahoma with 850-700 mb WAA ahead and along the front. If low clouds continue into Sunday afternoon, this could increase CIN and limit some storm chances; however if a storm develops, it has the potential to become severe. The NAM and ECMWF are generally showing better instability for Sunday with values around 2500 J/kg. This combined with 50 kts of effective shear and steep mid-level lapse rates would be efficient for storms to become severe. Large hail and damaging winds would be the primary threats but a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The better storm chances will likely in south-central to southeast KS. Uncertainty remains high given confidence is low with the exact position of the warm front and how much surface heating can lead to destabilization. Forecast details will continue to be refined, stay tuned!

As we move into early next week, showers and storms could continue into Monday morning as the upper wave continues to move east. Drier air is likely to move in on Monday afternoon and continue into Tuesday, resulting in a break in active weather to start the week. Mostly zonal flow aloft is progged to move in late Monday night and continue through much of the work week. Shower and storm chances may return to the forecast mid to late in the work week as upper shortwaves move into the region. Mild temperatures are expected with most of the area seeing high temperatures in the 70s.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1036 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Main aviation concerns will be increasing low clouds Sat morning and storm chances mainly Sat evening.

Still looking for low level moisture to steadily increase which will allow some low clouds to develop, generally after 11z, with areas along and west of I-135 seeing low cigs in the 12-14z time frame. MVFR levels will be likely with some pockets of IFR cigs at KHUT-KGBD-KRSL. Low cigs are expected to lift generally around 18z. As far as storms go, current thinking is that they will develop along a cold front moving across central KS after 21z and track southeast through the evening hours. May also see some additional development around or shortly after 00z due to low level jet processes. So ran with storm chances in the 22z-04z time frame as storms work from west to east.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.