textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are possible tonight through Monday morning with potential for large hail, damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Periodic rain chances are possible through next weekend with the main chances in the evenings through the overnight hours.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

An upper trough is currently over the eastern CONUS with ridging over much of the Plains and into the southwest US. An upper shortwave trough is sliding across the northwestern US into the Northern Rockies. In our area, scattered showers continue across portions of central KS due to 850-700 mb WAA. This late afternoon into this evening, slight chances for showers and storms will be possible in eastern Kansas as 850 mb WAA continues. Strong to severe storms appear unlikely with this activity due to the lack of instability. As we move into late tonight and the overnight hours, additional storm chances will be possible for areas along and east of I-135 with the best chances in southeast KS as 700 mb WAA continues. Strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with this activity as MUCAPE values are generally around 1000 J/kg with 30-40 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates greater than 7 C/km. The main hazard will likely be large hail but isolated damaging winds cannot be ruled out. PWATs are around 1.7" which is greater than the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm that develops. If numerous storms continue to track over the same area, localized flooding concerns may be possible.

Moving into Monday morning, scattered showers and storms may linger from overnight activity in areas along and east of the Flint Hills with this activity expected to shift east by late Monday morning. High temperatures will rise back into the 90s with the warmest readings anticipated in south-central KS. For Monday night, mostly dry conditions are expected before slight rain chances start to increase in northern Kansas, closer to early Tuesday morning as a weak shortwave slides across the region.

For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to mid 90s across our area. As we move towards Tuesday night into Wednesday, rain chances will increase as a stronger shortwave moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes area, pushing a frontal boundary south into the Central Plains. Showers and storms may be possible along this weak boundary, though timing and coverage are still uncertain with this activity.

For Wednesday and beyond, the upper air pattern will generally remain unchanged, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow embedded shortwaves to continue ejecting out into the region, keeping periodic rain chances possible into next weekend. The main rain chances will be in the evenings through the overnight hours each night. For temperatures, highs will remain in the 90s with values around or slight above normal temperatures for this time of year. Lows will be in the upper 60s to around 70 across the area. For next weekend, triple digit heat is possible to return as the upper ridge axis shifts towards the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

An area of showers continues to slowly move to the east- southeast across central Kansas early this afternoon impacting SLN, RSL, and GBD. These rain showers will slowly dissipate through the afternoon with dry conditions expected this evening along with light easterly winds. Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late tonight into Monday morning mainly along and east of a line from ICT to SLN. These storms will be capable of hail, gusty and erratic winds, lightning, as well as heavy rainfall which will reduce visibility. These storms will shift east of the area by late morning with a return of VFR conditions for the remainder of the forecast period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.