textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorms will exit the area later this morning

- Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly along/east of I-135

- Additional thunderstorms are possible each day next week

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s to near 90

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

As of 1 AM Sunday morning, surface based convection has transitioned to elevated convection across portions of central and southeast KS. This predominately due to strong low-level WAA. The strongest WAA will gradually shift into northern and northeast KS over the next few hours. Prior to that, slow storm motions and high PW values (up to 1.5") will yield heavy rainfall with the possibility of flooding. The greatest flooding potential appears to be across northern Saline and northern Lincoln counties.

The airmass remains largely unchanged into this afternoon with a sharpening dryline across portions of central and south-central. Question marks remain whether convection will initiate due to increasing midlevel heights and large scale ascent being displaced across northern high Plains. Midlevel flow is forecast to increase to 30-35 kt with effective shear values approaching 40 kt. The conditional environment would support supercells along and east of I-135 this afternoon and evening.

Transitioning into Monday afternoon, a shortwave ridge axis will amplify across the central and southern Plains as an omega block pattern emerges across the CONUS. An area of surface high pressure will settle across the northern Plains, while a surface low deepens across southeast CO in response to increase cyclonic flow across the southern/central Rockies. This will promote an upslope low-level flow across western KS, eastern CO, and eastern WY. Afternoon storm development is expected across the high Plains Monday. Isolated to scattered development is expected to grow upscale into an MCS or storm clusters late Monday evening into Monday night. These are likely to propagate southeastward within a high PW environment. This would steer the MCS and/or clusters into portions of central and south-central KS late Monday evening into early Tuesday morning.

The active weather pattern will continue through next week with KS remaining on the north/northwest periphery of a midlevel ridge across the southern Plains/southeast US. At this point, the potential for widespread severe weather appears low. Temperatures will remain seasonable with highs in the 80s to near 90.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A small cluster of thunderstorm activity remains across portions of Chase and Lyon counties and may impact CNU between 13-15Z. MVFR CIGS have overspread much of central and south-central KS behind an outflow boundary. This outflow boundary has shifted winds from the ENE at 10-15 kt. The expectation is for the CIGS to scatter to VFR by late morning with winds remaining light and variable across central KS. Winds across south-central and southeast KS will return to a southeasterly direction at 10-15 kt. Short term trends will need to be monitored throughout the afternoon for the development of thunderstorms. At this point, CNU stands the greatest potential for -TSRA and have introduced a PROB30 mention.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.