textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Record or near record high temperatures possible again today.

- A robust cold front arriving on Sunday will bring much colder air and windy conditions to the area with a slight chance(20-30%)for a light wintry mix in parts of central KS.

- Moderating temperatures Tue-Wed before another cold front ushers in more seasonable air for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The mid/upper ridge sprawling over the central CONUS is progged to shear eastward today although we are still expecting another unseasonably mild day with some record high temperatures possible once again. Breezy southwest winds are anticipated as we move into the afternoon hours while an increase in high clouds could have some impact on afternoon temperatures in some areas.

A vigorous mid/upper trough is progged to move over the Northern Rockies tonight before emerging over the Northern Plains on Sunday. This will help drive a cold front south over the area late tonight and early on Sunday. The front is expected to be in the vicinity of the Kansas Turnpike by around 12Z Sun. Strong low level cold air advection will likely result in falling temperatures as we move through the day on Sunday with daytime highs reached early in the period for many areas, especially central and south central KS. As the LLJ ramps up after midnight, we could see some widely scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two in southeast KS through around 12-15Z before the action shifts north and east of the area. The low level airmass is progged to remain quite dry in the wake of the front leading to uncertainty in drizzle/freezing drizzle potential. We may still see a narrow window where a light wintry mix changes to light snow showers in parts of central KS with some rain showers impacting parts of southeast Kansas but more widespread impactful wintry precipitation does not appear likely at this time. Strong northwest winds with gusts to 45-50 knots appear possible, highest speeds over central KS during much of the day on Sunday.

Large-scale forcing for subsidence is progged to arrive by late afternoon/early evening although breezy northwest winds are expected to prevail through Sunday night. It'll be much colder on Monday with highs only climbing into the low to mid 30s. This cooldown will be short-lived as temperatures quickly moderate as we move into Tue-Wed. Above normal values will return with highs in the 40s-50s, warmest on Wednesday.

A backdoor cold front will arrive on Thursday ushering in more seasonable air late in the week. Highs on Thu-Fri are expected to remain near average for early January ranging from the low to mid 40s.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Southwest winds will prevail over the area today becoming breezy as we move into the overnight hours. A developing LLJ will bring LLWS to southeast KS including the KCNU TAF after midnight. We may also see some MVFR cigs develop over southeast KS as rich low level mositure arrives. Better chances for showers are expected after the end of this TAF period. A cold front will impact the central KS TAF sites after 08-10Z with lowering ceilings during the predawn hours on Sunday. Winds will shift to the northwest in the wake of the front while increasing in speed with some 30 knot gusts possible in the wake of the front in central KS early on Sunday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Very windy conditions are expected in the wake of a cold front on Sunday. Northwest winds will increase to 30-40 mph with gusts over 55 mph possible in central Kansas. This will drive the grassland fire danger index into the very high category across much of the area on Sunday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 216 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Record high temperatures in jeopardy again today:

SATURDAY DECEMBER 27...

Site Forecast High Record High (Year) Wichita 71 68 (1946) Salina 68 68 (1928) Chanute 72 74 (1946) Russell 68 66 (1956)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.