textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm potential this afternoon through tonight. Uncertainty is high surrounding where storms will develop. Large hail, damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a few brief tornadoes are possible.

- Low confidence Heat Advisory for southeast Kansas today.

- Spotty low probability chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday through next week.

- Mostly seasonable temperatures expected the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

EARLY THIS MORNING--MIDDAY...A decaying thunderstorm complex over northeast and east-central KS has spread an outflow boundary south through much of the area early this morning. Meanwhile, strong 850- 600mb warm advection and moisture transport is supporting scattered to numerous thunderstorms currently blossoming over northwest KS and northeast CO, ahead of potent shortwave energy traversing the High Plains. Given the decent lift amidst a moist/unstable airmass, there is a good chance this activity will continue treking east-southeast into portions of central and eastern KS late tonight through this morning. Thinking central KS generally west of I-135/Highway 81 has the greatest potential to see this activity. Confidence is quite low on how long this activity will survive, with most CAM solutions supporting a weakening trend as the morning progresses with eastward extent. While widespread severe weather is unlikely, a localized strong to severe storm is possible, capable of dime-quarter size hail, and perhaps 50-60 mph winds, along with locally heavy rainfall.

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING--TONIGHT...Low confidence on exactly where thunderstorms will initiate this afternoon after about 3-4 PM. If convection currently over northwest KS and northeast CO eventually grows upscale and develops a decent cold pool, the outflow boundary and effective synoptic front will likely surge further south than expected for this afternoon (southern KS/northern OK) along with associated thunderstorm chances. In contrast, if current activity to the northwest does not develop an expansive cold pool, afternoon outflow position and associated thunderstorm initiation would likely be further north closer to roughly I-70 or Highway 56.

Despite this location uncertainty, a strong and fat buoyancy profile coupled with decent shear for July standards will support the potential for severe thunderstorms, capable of large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall which may support pockets of flash flooding. Additionally, a brief tornado or two can't be ruled out given hefty low-level buoyancy, and especially where low-level flow is backed in vicinity of the boundary. The severe threat could linger through or just past midnight before weakening.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...Suspect subsidence and stabilization in wake of Saturday night's activity will prevent widespread showers/storms Sunday, although could see a few lingering showers/thunderstorms over mainly southeast KS.

NEXT WEEK...A slow-moving weak upper trough may support a few hit-or- miss showers/thunderstorms across the region Monday-Tuesday. Rather weak flow aloft should preclude widespread severe weather. By mid to late week, the flow aloft becomes more progressive once again, with various low-amplitude shortwaves traversing Mid-America. This should support additional low probability thunderstorm chances across the region mid-late next week, especially during the evening-night-early morning hours.

TEMPERATURES:

Confidence is low surrounding today's temperatures and heat indices, given uncertainty on how far south convective outflow will spread. For now, will continue the inherited southeast KS Heat Advisory, although it could bust with heat indices remaining mostly below 105. Slightly cooler temperatures should persist Sunday through Tuesday in wake of today's frontal zone, although likely still only near to slightly below average. Increasing thickness should support a modest warming trend by mid-late next week, but a major heat wave appears unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1243 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Challenge is ongoing and expected convection this afternoon into tonight. Ongoing thunderstorms stretching along a boundary from central Reno to Morris counties continue to develop with some of the southern attempts becoming more agitated based on visible satellite. This is contrary to further north when the clouds quickly dissipated. It will be the area to watch for influence to the latter part of the day activity. Central Kansas could be done for the day, but the PROB30s were kept and shifted later in the event that daytime heating destabilizes some of those areas. There is lower confidence for KRSL. The southern activity is questionable with ongoing storms. There will likely be amendments depending on their evolution. Above mentioned boundary is playing games with the wind component, there could be a change to the north northeast with speeds approaching 15kts and gusts to 25kts as the boundary tracks southeast. A decent amount of uncertainty persists, and changes will be needed.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072- 094>096-098>100.