textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures anticipated for Tuesday, with many locations seeing highs in the 60s.

- A return to below normal temperatures for Friday and Saturday, with low confidence on the timing of the cold front at this time.

- No impactful winter precip events are expected through the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Currently have some shortwave energy tracking into the Ohio Valley with northwest flow in place from the Northern Rockies through the Plains. At the surface, high pressure extends from the Western Great Lakes into the Southern Plains. Pesky low clouds remain over most of the forecast area as we speak and will continue to be slow to push east. They will stick around through the morning hours and into the afternoon for areas east of I-135.

Surface high will slide slowly southeast today as northwest flow remains in place, which will return temps back closer to seasonal normals. There remains good model agreement in an upper impulse sliding across the Northern Rockies on Tue afternoon and into the Central/Northern Plains by early Tue evening. This will enhance lee troughing on Tue and setup some great downslope conditions, which will bring highs in the 60s for much of the area on Tue. Normal highs for this time of year are generally in the mid and upper 40s. Precip associated with this wave is still forecast to stay well north of our forecast area. In addition, not looking for a significant cool-down behind this impulse, with highs Wed in the 50s for Wed. At the same time, a deep Arctic low will start to retrograde over Ontario.

Overall pattern will remain mostly unchanged as we head into the middle of the week. A more robust upper impulse is expected to move out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Great Lakes region by Fri afternoon. Medium range models have started to diverge on how they handle this piece of energy. The ECMWF is faster but not as deep as the GFS. There is some agreement that some colder air will start to work into the area on Fri with the main core of the really cold air staying over the Northern Plains into the Upper/Mid Mississippi Valley and through the Great Lakes region. Because of the timing differences with this shortwave, confidence in temps still remains low for the Fri-Sun time frame. However, confidence is high that we are not looking at any impactful winter precip through the next 7 days, with the main storm track staying to the north.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CST Sun Dec 7 2025

MVFR to occasional IFR cigs are lingering over the area. This activity looks to remain in place through much of the night, only beginning to clear for central Kansas sites between 09-12Z. HUT and ICT will see cigs lift later in the morning, likely between 15-16Z.

Winds have turned southerly for central Kansas sites and will turn southerly for south-central and southeastern Kansas between 12-15Z. Winds will increase across the area to around 12 knots during the afternoon, diminishing after 00Z under mostly clear skies.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.