textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near record high temperatures today and Tuesday, gusty south winds today.

- Scattered to at times numerous showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday through Thursday. Locally heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns main threat, risk for severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon-evening.

- Much cooler temperatures mid week and into the weekend, warming back up next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...A slow-moving strong cold front will inch closer to the region from the north. A few of the CAMs initiate isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of this front generally along and north of I-70 later today and into the evening. However, thinking this is overdone given NIL large-scale forcing and rather stout capping, so kept the forecast dry for now.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON-NIGHT...Thinking this period has the greatest potential for at least a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms, as the slow-moving strong cold front moving in from the north interacts with an unseasonably moist and unstable airmass, amidst 40- 50 kts of deep layer effective shear. Lapse rates aren't amazing, so likely not looking at giant hail, but possibly up to ping pong or golfball size if a supercell or two can sustain itself, especially before 8-9 PM. Thereafter, the surging cold front and merging cold pools should transition the surface-based thunderstorm threat to mainly 50-65 mph winds and marginal hail. Wouldn't be surprised to see additional shower/thunderstorm development north of the surface front as the evening and night progress, with a continued threat for marginally severe hail given ample elevated instability and effective shear. Furthermore, Locally heavy rainfall is likely given the unseasonably rich precipitable waters, and the potential for training showers/storms due to the parallel orientation of the front and mid-level flow.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...This period will feature off-and-on scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms across the region, as a deep upper trough approaches slowly from the west, and the deep cold frontal zone stalls across the area. Continued unseasonably rich precipitable waters and strong forcing will lead to locally heavy rainfall and possibly some localized flooding issues. Limited buoyancy should temper severe weather potential, although the strong forcing, strong flow aloft, and marginal buoyancy may support a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY-TUESDAY...The next few days will feature the warmest days of the next 7-10, with unseasonable warmth in the upper 80s to low 90s. May flirt with record highs both days. A tight pressure gradient will support stout southerly winds today, with gusts upwards of 30- 35 mph likely.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures, due to widespread clouds/precipitation along with the potential for a further south placement of the cold front, and increasing cold advection by Thursday afternoon. Highs in the 60s-70s are likely, warmest over southeast KS.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. Went upper 50s to mid 60s for highs Friday and Saturday, although this may still be a bit too warm. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s to low 40s underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, later shifts may need to contemplate some patchy frost over mainly central KS.

SUNDAY AND BEYOND...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures, especially by next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Breezy southerly winds will linger over the area tonight while winds in the 1500-2000 ft AGL range will remain in the 45-50 knot range leading to low-level wind shear lingering into the early morning hours on Monday at all TAF sites. SSW surface winds will become gusty once again through the mid to late morning hours at all TAF sites and persist through the day while VFR prevails across the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.