textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely this afternoon into tonight mainly along and east of I-135. Very large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph, and maybe a couple of tornadoes will be possible. Heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

- After a break on Friday, thunderstorm chances return this weekend. Strong to severe storms will be possible both Saturday and Sunday. Sunday's has some higher-end severe potential, but there are many details to work out in the forecast at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 356 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

TODAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AM...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and 500mb RAP analysis show the much advertised deep layer trough lumbering it's way over the Rockies and into the central/northern plains. At the surface, pressure falls have tightened the pressure gradient across the region leading to gusty southerly winds ahead of an advancing cold front sliding through the High Plains. These southerly winds are advecting high quality moisture into the central plains which will fuel thunderstorm activity later this afternoon, but it's having the side effect of causing expansive low cloud cover and patchy mist and drizzle this morning.

By this afternoon, an embedded upper wave will round the southern portion of the larger trough and eject into the central plains. Meanwhile, a cold front will sweep southeastward across Kansas and intersect a sharpening dryline across northern and central Kansas. This will be the focus for initial thunderstorm development this afternoon. This convection will likely grow upscale quickly with copious amounts of lift along with shear vectors being parallel to the front. Even with the linear storm mode favored along the front, initial development could still produce very large hail up to 2 inches. After the first couple of hours, the primary threat should transition to damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. Meanwhile, further south along the dryline, there's a fairly decent signal of discrete to semi-discrete development across south-central Kansas and into the Flint Hills. This is primarily being driven by increasing convergence along the dryline from a secondary surface low developing along the KS/OK stateline. A narrow corridor of 3000-4000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 50 knots of effective shear will support discrete or semi-discrete supercells capable of producing hail up to 2 inches along with damaging wind gusts. Backing surface winds in the warm sector in response to the secondary surface low should enhance low-level SRH. This along with a strengthening LLJ should put 0-3km SRH around 300-400 m2/s2 by 00Z this evening. This would support tornadoes in a fairly localized area across south-central Kansas and the Flint Hills. This is generally noted in the initial Day 1 SPC outlook with a 10% risk area for tornadoes noted in this area. By 02-04Z, all convection should be lined out as it progresses across southeast Kansas. While storm mode will dampen the hail and tornado threat by this time, damaging winds and heavy rainfall will still be possible before midnight. Showers and storms should gradually exit southeast Kansas overnight into early Friday morning.

THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...

Another deep layer trough will enter the western CONUS this weekend and will serve as the catalyst for another couple of rounds of strong to severe storms both Saturday and Sunday. A lead shortwave will pass over the region on Saturday helping to trigger numerous storms across western Kansas that will progress eastward during the evening and nighttime hours. The primary threat will be damaging wind gusts, but large hail and maybe a couple of brief spin-up tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The evolution of Saturday's activity will likely have a big impact on Sunday's potential severe weather setup. Guidance continues to show a rather potent trough ejecting into the central plains on Sunday with the jet max nosing into the warm sector by Sunday afternoon. With such a favorable mid/upper pattern laid out across the region, it would seem like the dynamics would support the potential for a higher impact severe weather event. However, surface features appear to be quite nebulous, likely due in part to the convection from Saturday night. Guidance shows an ill-defined dryline and somewhat iffy moisture quality (despite dews in the 60s). There's still a number of days to iron out all of the details, but uncertainty remains quite high for storm coverage and severity on Sunday.

A brief break in the active weather is anticipated heading into the beginning of next week as well as a decent stretch of milder temperatures. However, storm chances look to return by mid-week next week. It's too early to determine if this activity will feature strong to severe storms. Be sure to stay tuned for updates to the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs continue to overspread much of the area this morning with some patchy light drizzle at times. These low clouds will be slow to mix out, but much of central and south- central Kansas should see VFR conditions by 18Z. Meanwhile, it's possible MVFR conditions could be present across southeast Kansas through the TAF period.

An approaching cold front will trigger scattered thunderstorms as it intersects a dryline after 21Z this afternoon. Strong to severe storms are possible with up to 2-inch hail, up to 60-knot wind gusts, and perhaps a tornado or two possible. Storms will generally develop along a KSLN-KICT line and move eastward into the evening and nighttime hours. Storm chances will end from west to east tonight into the early morning hours of Friday.

As of 12Z, much of the area was experiencing gusty southerly winds sustained at 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 35 knots at times. As the cold front slowly sags into the forecast area, winds behind the front will shift to northwesterly at around 10 to 15 knots.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.