textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly along/east of I-135

- Additional thunderstorms are possible each day next week

- Seasonal temperatures over the next week with highs in the 80s to near 90

DISCUSSION

Issued at 233 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Currently, an elongated, weak mid/upper level trough extends across the Northern Rockies into the Northern High Plains with ridging building in across the southern tier of the CONUS. At the surface, a weak trough is situated across western Kansas. Visible satellite indicates numerous lingering outflow boundaries draped across the central and eastern portions of the state from overnight convection. The moist airmass remains in place, primarily across eastern Kansas where PWATs between 1-1.5" have been observed this morning. As we progress into this afternoon, a sharpening dryline is expected across south-central Kansas into north-central Oklahoma that could initiate afternoon and evening convection once again. Confidence remains low as the ridge to the south begins to build in over the region, leading to increasing heights and weakening overall ascent over the region. Decent instability and sufficient shear would support isolated storms should they manage to develop. Current guidance indicates development along and east of I-135 with activity pushing east through the night.

For Monday, a Slight Risk for severe storms returns for central Kansas. A low pressure will develop over the Central High Plains leading to easterly/southeasterly flow. This will support increased moisture and upslope flow across eastern CO/western Kansas. Storm development is anticipated during the afternoon hours across the High Plains. Storms will eventually congeal into a multicellular MCS that will march east-southeastward towards central Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours. Large hail and strong winds will be the main threats across central Kansas for late Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

Then through the end of the week, a mid/upper level ridge will continue to build in over the region with the forecast area remaining just north of the ridge axis. This will lead seasonably warm temperatures (middle 80s to lower 90s), and an overall less supportive environment for more potent convection due to synoptic scale subsidence. However, due to the positioning of the upper-level flow, and given the buoyant lower-level airmass, some diurnally driven showers and storms look to develop each afternoon/evening. The potential for widespread severe weather remains low at this time. Confidence remains low on exact location and intensity of any convection for Tuesday through Saturday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

MVFR ceilings have been slow to clear today but these ceilings will continue to dissipate through the afternoon with a return of VFR conditions by mid-afternoon. A surface trough is slowly moving south through the forecast area today which will lead to weakening winds as we go through the afternoon for locations north of the front. This should be all TAF sites except CNU which will stay south of the trough and keep breezy southerly winds going through the early evening hours. Thunderstorm development will be possible late this afternoon through the evening hours for locations near the KS/OK state line and eastward into the Flint Hills. Confidence on thunderstorms impacting KCNU remain low at this time as activity may dissipate prior to reaching the terminal. Early tomorrow morning some shallow dense fog may develop across central Kansas which may bring IFR to LIFR conditions to RSL, SLN, and GBD. This fog will dissipate by late morning with a return to VFR conditions and an increase in easterly winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.