textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight across central KS

- Widespread rainfall possible Friday into Saturday and again early next week

- Near to above normal temperatures expected through early next week; cooler temperatures beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

As of 2 AM Thursday morning, quasi-zonal midlevel flow remains across the central Plains. Further north, a shortwave trough was was advancing through southern Ontario with an attendant surface trough stalled from the OK Panhandle through central KS and northeast from there. The forecast area has remained storm free so far with the strongest forcing for ascent remaining across far northeast KS and northern MO. Midlevel heights will gradually increase through the daytime hours today as shortwave ridging amplifies ahead of a western CONUS trough. Despite the increasing midlevel heights, a weak perturbation currently over northern NM is progged to lift across the post-frontal region of west-central into central KS this afternoon and evening. This could support a few showers or thunderstorms. Steepening lapse rates may yield up to 1000 J/kg of elevated instability across central KS. Effective shear less than 30 kt should keep any convective disorganized. Otherwise, a notable temperature gradient is expected to reside on the stalled surface front this afternoon with highs across central KS in the upper 60s or lower 70s and areas of south-central and southeast KS near 80.

The next shortwave trough is posed to lift from the Baja region late tonight into Friday. This should result in widespread rain showers Friday and even Saturday. SREF/EPS mean rainfall amounts Friday into Saturday are generally 0.50" or less with the highest amounts along and west of I-135.

Transitioning into the late Sunday into next timeframe, a strong midlevel trough is progged to eject into the Plains Monday into Monday night. Confidence continues to increase for widespread rainfall beginning late Sunday night or Monday morning and continuing, at least intermittently, through Tuesday. Additionally, the pattern, especially Monday afternoon and evening, may support a severe storm potential and needs to be monitored over the coming days. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 200 AM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A frontal boundary is draped across central Kansas, winds have turned out of the north for RSL and GBD. Variable winds can be expected at SLN and HUT with the boundary overhead. The front will stall across the area, keeping winds out of the south for south- central and southeast Kansas through the forecast time frame.

Behind the frontal boundary, low clouds and reduced vis will impact central Kansas sites. GBD and RSL will likely fall to IFR conditions by morning, with SLN remaining MVFR. Cigs will lift slightly around midday and vis will improve, but MVFR conditions will continue for central Kansas through the end of the TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.