textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend ensues Monday with highs in the 80s and 90s over the next week

- A weak cold front moves through Tuesday afternoon and evening with a few storms possible across eastern KS

- Very high fire danger possible Thursday afternoon for areas west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

As of 115 PM Sunday afternoon, northwesterly midlevel flow remains across the central and northern Plains with a deep trough across Quebec and the Great Lakes. The midlevel shortwave trough responsible for the shower and thunderstorm activity this morning continues to progress across western KS and OK. The greatest forcing for ascent has pushed into OK, allowing the vast majority of rain showers to depart the area as well. In the wake of the shortwave trough and showers, an expansive area of surface high pressure encompasses most of the central and northern Plains. Transitioning into tonight, skies will continue to clear from north to south with overnight lows reaching the low to mid 40s for most locations.

Midlevel heights will be on the increase early this week as a southwest US ridge gradually amplifies. This will result in a warming trend with highs in the 80s and 90s by Tuesday. A midlevel shortwave trough will translate across the northern Plains Tuesday, shunting a weak cold front through the area Tuesday afternoon/evening. A few thunderstorms are possible along the frontal zone, especially across eastern KS. Surface dew points are forecast to reach the low 60s ahead of the front Tuesday afternoon with midlevel lapse rates approaching 7.5-8 C/km. This combination will aid in the development of 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE. A 45-50 kt midlevel jet will also overspread eastern KS by Tuesday evening. ECMWF and GFS forecast hodographs reveal a veering wind profile with effective shear values of 40-45 kt. As such, supercell structures are possible with large hail up to golf ball size and damaging winds near 60 mph being the chief concerns.

Behind the aforementioned weak cold front, temperatures will reach the low to mid 80s for Wednesday afternoon. The 90s will quickly return for Thursday and Friday as the ridge axis amplifies overhead. There remains some spread among ensemble and deterministic solutions regarding the timing of the next cold front towards the end of the week/next weekend. Despite the likely frontal passage, the 850 mb temperature anomalies remain in the 5-8 C, likely resulting in the continuation of the 90s into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Showers continue to shift to the south and east of the region early this afternoon with VFR conditions expected through this TAF period. Northeasterly winds will continue to diminish through the afternoon with light and variable winds expected overnight. Winds will veer around to the south early tomorrow morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 132 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Fire weather concerns are forecast to return Thursday afternoon for areas generally west of Interstate 135. Gusty south to southwest winds up to 35 mph will overlap with humidity values in the 15-25% range. Areas west of Interstate 135 have remained quite dry for the last several months, delaying the rate of green up.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.