textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures expected through at least Wednesday with most locations expected to see highs in the 100-105 degree range.

- A few storms possible later this afternoon/evening mainly along/north of I-70. Severe weather is not expected at this time.

- Shower and storm chances increase just a bit Wednesday night through Friday, with the best chances expected north of I-70.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict mid/upper ridging over the Desert Southwest with an upper trough over the Great Lakes. At the surface, a stalled surface boundary spans across southern Nebraska into northwest Kansas. Temperatures throughout the area so far today have overachieved somewhat, with observed values in the 105-110 degree range as of early this afternoon. As parcels reach their convective temperatures later this afternoon and evening, isolated showers and storms are possible mainly along/north of I-70. This activity is not expected to be severe given modest flow aloft, though small hail and brief gusty winds may be possible with the strongest storms. Furthermore, a few short-term models also highlight the potential for a few elevated showers near the vicinity of the stalled surface boundary drifting from northwest Kansas into our central counties heading into Monday morning. With confidence being a bit low at this time owing to drier low level conditions, decided to introduce silent PoPs to account for this potential.

The prevailing pattern will continue to promote hot temperatures through at least Wednesday. Layer thicknesses suggest areawide highs in the 100-105 degree range, so not currently expecting temperatures to be quite as hot as today. For Monday, fairly mixed-out dewpoints could be just enough to keep heat indices below advisory criteria for most locations. As such, conditions appear marginal enough to not issue a heat advisory with this cycle, though this may change as additional guidance becomes available. Similar conditions are forecast for Tuesday with highs ranging from 100 to 105 degrees. Regarding rain chances, little change in the positioning of the aforementioned stationary front is anticipated as well, which may allow for continued isolated shower/storm chances mainly north of I- 70 during the late afternoon and early evening hours Monday and Tuesday.

Southwesterly flow aloft is progged across the Plains beginning Wednesday as a couple of waves arrive in the western CONUS. Embedded ripples in flow tracking through the Rockies and into the Central Plains may allow for scattered showers and storms across central Kansas Wednesday evening, though most guidance to this point places the main activity further north into northern Kansas and southern Nebraska. As such, another hot day with highs in the low to middle 100s appears likely at this time.

Looking toward the end of the week, there remains some question as to how far south additional rain chances make it. For Thursday and possibly even Friday, model trends to this point have shifted the location of the stationary boundary further north with each run, which decreases confidence in showers and storms providing much- needed relief to the forecast area. This would support continued hot temperatures especially across far southern Kansas heading into next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Windy and VFR conditions will persist through the next 24 hours.

As of 18Z, most areas along and west of a KSLN-KICT-KEGT line have sustained southwest winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots at times. These conditions should persist through the remainder of the afternoon and evening hours. Winds may decrease slightly after sunset, but only by a few knots. Meanwhile, locations across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas are experiencing southerly surface winds at around 10 knots at 18Z. Winds should begin to increase to around 15 to 20 knots across these area late this afternoon into this evening.

Overnight tonight into Monday morning, a strong LLJ will continue over the region, and this will support LLWS across a large portion of the area. LLWS may continue through the end of the TAF period in some locations.

Lastly, there is a low (under 20%) chance of an isolated storm or two along the I-70 corridor this afternoon and evening. However, given the very isolated coverage, any mention of this was omitted from the TAFs for now.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.