textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Spotty shower/thunderstorm chances early this morning through Saturday morning. Marginally severe wind gusts possible central KS this evening.

- A more organized threat for strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon-evening.

- Low probability shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday through next week.

- Mostly seasonable to seasonably warm temperatures the next several days, although probably not quite as hot Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

PRECIPITATION:

Overall, we have low confidence in the shower/thunderstorm forecast the next several days, which is typical of summertime across the Kansas region when large scale forcing is usually rather weak and instability is high. Each day's thunderstorm chances will be dependent on the prior day's thunderstorm coverage and the placement and magnitude of the associated outflow boundary. Forecast models typically struggle with patterns like this.

TODAY-TONIGHT...We are expecting an outflow boundary to get as far south as central KS early this morning, which may support a few spotty morning showers/thunderstorms generally north of Highway 56. Severe weather is not expected.

Additional isolated to scattered thunderstorm development is expected later this afternoon and evening over western KS and NE in vicinity of a stalled frontal zone. This activity will track east- southeast, possibly reaching central KS during the evening. By the time activity reaches central KS, it'll likely be on the downtrend, with the primary threat being localized 50-60 mph wind gusts given hefty downdraft CAPE.

Meanwhile, several CAMs develop an expansive MCS well north of the region tonight in response to shortwave energy progressing across the Northern Plains. Corfidi vectors propagate this activity south- southeast, with some of this activity possibly impacting portions of central and east-central KS late tonight. The primary threat would be localized 50-60 mph winds.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...Tonight's activity is expected to drive the effective synoptic front south, likely reaching as far south as central to southern KS Saturday. This boundary will be the focus for isolated to scattered thunderstorm development Saturday through Saturday night. Several models prog some impressive low and deep layer shear in vicinity of this boundary Saturday afternoon-evening, along with strong buoyancy. Consequently, Saturday afternoon-evening has the potential to be fairly busy severe weather-wise, with all severe hazards possible. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details today and tonight.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...Suspect subsidence and stabilization in wake of Saturday night's activity will prevent widespread showers/storms Sunday, although could see lingering showers/thunderstorms over mainly southern and southeast KS Sunday morning.

NEXT WEEK...A slow-moving weak upper trough may support hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms across the region Monday-Tuesday. Rather weak flow aloft should preclude widespread severe weather. By mid to late week, the flow aloft becomes more progressive once again, with various low-amplitude shortwaves traversing Mid-America. This should support additional low probability thunderstorm chances across the region mid-late next week, especially during the evening-night-early morning hours.

TEMPERATURES:

Localized heat indices up to around 102-104 degrees are possible today over mainly southeast KS, but this is too marginal to warrant a heat advisory. Saturday's temperature forecast is highly uncertain, as the convectively enhanced frontal boundary may reach farther south than expected, supporting somewhat cooler than forecast temperatures. The slightly cooler temperatures should continue Sunday through Tuesday in wake of the frontal zone, although likely still near to slightly below average. Increasing thickness should support a modest warming trend by mid-late next week, but a major heat wave appears unlikely at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the afternoon and tonight period. There is a chance for some storms to affect parts of central Kansas either this evening or more likely early Saturday morning. Highest confidence is for storms to possibly reach KRSL site early in the morning, therefore we have a PROB30. Otherwise VFR conditions prevailing for all other sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.