textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures, dry conditions, and gusty winds will create very high fire danger this afternoon across portions of the Flint Hills and southeast KS

- Light rain possible Wednesday evening/night

- Warm conditions continue through Saturday before a strong cold front ushers in cooler temperatures and precipitation chances for Sunday and Monday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

As of 2 AM Tuesday morning, northwest midlevel flow has become established across the Plains with deep troughing across the eastern CONUS. A plume of Pacific moisture continues to stream across the northern Rockies and across the Plains ahead of the next shortwave trough advancing southeast into the northern Plains. This shortwave trough will shunt a weak cold front towards central KS later today. Ahead of the trough, a strengthening surface pressure gradient has been observed with southerly winds in the 10-20 mph currently. As boundary layer mixing ensues after sunrise, wind gusts will begin to increase, especially along and southeast of the KS Turnpike where gusts near 40 mph are possible. As the aforementioned surface trough slides into central KS, the strongest pressure gradient will slide into portions of MO/OK/AR, allowing wind speeds to gradually decrease throughout the afternoon. Northerly winds, behind the surface trough, may briefly gust near 25 mph during the mid- afternoon hours. Despite the gusty winds, temperatures will surge well-above normal with highs topping in the 60s to near 70.

The next potential for precipitation arrives late Wednesday evening into Wednesday night as a shortwave trough translates southeast across the state. Ensemble and deterministic guidance remain aligned with this particular precipitation event resulting in light rain amounts. EPS, SREF, and GEFS mean precipitation amounts through Thursday morning are all generally a tenth of an inch or less across the entire forecast area. An area of surface high pressure will settle into the region for Thursday before southwesterly winds return for Friday, returning temperatures into the 60s and 70s. The midlevel pattern is expected to become quasi-zonal by weeks-end. Mid to long range guidance continue to suggest the next cold front will slowly sink across the area in the Saturday/Saturday night timeframe. This frontal passage will return temperatures closer to normal (near 50 degrees). This frontal zone may stall just south of the area for Sunday into early next week and may result in additional precipitation chances, especially across southern/southeast KS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. LLWS conditions will continue through mid-morning at SLN, HUT, ICT, and CNU as a LLJ at 50-55 kt near 1.4 kft remains across the area. LLWS conditions will subside as the LLJ weakens by mid- morning. A weak cold front will move into central KS by late morning, shifting southerly winds to the northwest at 10-15 kt with a few gusts at 20-25 kt. This weak front may not impact ICT and CNU, where wind speeds will remain predominately from the south throughout the daytime hours. Gusts as high as 35 kt are expected at CNU for the mid to late morning hours before gradually decreasing this afternoon. All sites will see winds below 10 kt by 02Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

A weak surface cold front will slowly move into central KS later this afternoon. This will focus the strongest surface pressure gradient southeast of the KS Turnpike, where wind gusts up to 40 mph are expected. The strongest winds gusts should occur from 10 AM to 3 PM with a gradual decrease through 6 PM. The gusty winds will overlap with humidity values in the 20-30% range, yielding very high fire danger for areas along and east of a line from Winfield to El Dorado to Cottonwood Falls. Very high fire danger may return Friday afternoon across the Flint Hills as warm temperatures overlap southwesterly winds at 20-25 mph. The fire danger potential for Saturday continues to decrease as the latest deterministic and ensemble guidance are trending toward lighter winds. As a result, very high fire danger has been removed for Saturday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.