textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm through Tuesday.

- Stout/gusty south winds through Monday.

- Off-and-on showers/thunderstorms late Tuesday through late Thursday or early Friday.

- Near to below average temperatures late week into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

Chances for off-and-on rain/thunderstorms enter back into the forecast by late Tuesday and persist through late Thursday or early Friday, as a cold front approaches from the northwest and a deep upper trough approaches from the west. Increasing shear coupled with modest instability and strong forcing may support a handful of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms during this time period, especially late Tuesday--Tuesday evening, and again Wednesday-- Wednesday evening. Widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time. Additionally, well above average precipitable waters and the potential for training echoes will likely support locally heavy rainfall and associated minor flooding concerns.

The main forecast challenge continues to be timing of this storm system. The ECMWF has consistently been much slower than the GFS and Canadian solutions, possibly holding onto precipitation over southern KS into Friday, with the GFS and Canadian clearing precipitation by Thursday evening as the upper trough phases with a secondary upper trough diving southeast across Mid-America. Looking at the latest model trends though, the GFS ensemble mean has been steadily slowing down with this system. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

Above average heights/thickness will support continued unseasonably warm temperatures through about Tuesday, with daytime highs a few degrees either side of 90 degrees probable. Additionally, stout south to southwest winds should gust upwards of 30-35 mph through Monday, owing to deep and persistent low pressure to the west- northwest of the region. We continued the trend of increasing wind speeds a bit higher than NBM values.

As we head into mid-late week, model consensus continues to support a nice cool down, possibly as early as Wednesday depending on cold frontal timing, as stout Canadian high pressure settles southeast into Mid-America in response to deepening upper troughing over central and eastern North America. This will likely be the coolest air thus far this fall season across the region.

The GFS and Canadian models continue to support a deeper and further west longwave trough placement and associated cooler temperatures compared to the somewhat warmer ECMWF. For now, a good compromise was daytime highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday and overnight lows in the 40s, although this period could turn out to be cooler than currently forecast, as the NBM is on the warmer end of the current model guidance spectrum...stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Breezy/gusty south to southwest winds will encompass the region the next 24 hours, strongest mid-late this morning into this evening. Gusts upwards of 30 kts are likely at mainly RSL and GBD. Additionally, a stout low-level jet around 50 kts will support low-level wind shear at 1500-2000 ft AGL early this morning and again tonight for most TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.