textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- There is a slight chance for freezing fog or patchy light freezing drizzle early on Thursday.

- After today's warm-up, colder air will return to the area for Thursday through Saturday.

- Flurries and light snow will be possible for Thursday night into Friday, impactful accumulation are not expected at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

A compact pv anomaly is progged to emerge from the Central Rockies late tonight and early Thursday morning in northwest mid/upper flow. This will allow low pressure at the sfc to deepen and translate eastward across the Southern Plains with a warm front situated over southern KS. Low level easterly upslope flow and low level mass convergence on the north side of the sfc low may allow for sufficient moistening of the pbl for some fog or perhaps some light freezing drizzle across parts of central, south central and southeast KS early on Thursday. With temperatures progged to rise above freezing this afternoon and with some anticipated snow melt, we could see dewpoints rise in the absence of any low level moisture advection. REFS neighborhood probabilities for fog are around 50% while HREF freezing rain probabilities >= 0.01" remain at or less than 10 percent across far southern KS leading to low confidence in impactful weather at this time. Any fog or light freezing drizzle should diminish by mid to late morning. Some weak H85 cold air advection in the afternoon is expected to keep highs from climbing above freezing in most locations with highs ranging from the upper 20s to lower 30s in most areas.

A reinforcing shot of cold air is progged to arrive on Friday and we could see a period of light snow and snow flurries as the frontal zone shifts southward across the area during the day. Some minor accumulations are possible. Low level cold air advection will result in below average highs with most areas seeing values topping out in the low to mid 20s.

Sat-Sun...cold, below average temperatures will persist into Sat with highs in the teens and lows in the zero to 5 below range anticipated. Light northerly winds will result in wind chills in the 10 to 15 below range at times late Fri night and into the morning hours on Sat. A clipper system is progged to dig across the Northern Plains late Sat into Sun although the impacts to sensible weather are expected to remain north and east of our forecast area. Rising heights/increasing thickness and a south to southwesterly low level return flow should allow temperatures to moderate across the area on Sunday. Some locations in central KS could see highs rise into the low to mid 40s while far eastern Kansas tops out near freezing.

Mon-Wed...mid/upper ridging is progged to build over the central CONUS Mon-Tue resulting in mild and near normal temperatures. A shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies late Tue into Wed bringing a chance of showers to the area. There remains some uncertainty in how much cold air will be available but we could see a light wintry mix Tue night before the activity shifts eastward, away from the area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 537 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Quiet weather conditions expected through the late evening hours, however low clouds look to begin developing during the early morning hours and could linger into the afternoon. Cigs in the IFR category are likely across southern Kansas. The low clouds and increased low level saturation could give way to some freezing fog or even light freezing drizzle over south central Kansas. If freezing fog/freezing drizzle was to develop the window would be shorter lived perhaps up to 2 to 5hrs during the morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.