textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Some strong and severe storms are expected late this afternoon and evening.

- Some strong storms are possible for southeast Kansas on Sunday.

- High confidence for below average temperatures Mon-Thu.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

A cold front was bisecting northwest Kansas this morning while a trough of low pressure extended SSW of this frontal boundary. As the low level flow backs late this afternoon/early this evening we may see some pooling of low level moisture allowing the cap to weaken sufficiently. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal zone after 4 pm. Meanwhile, another hot day is anticipated south of the front where a deeply mixed pbl is expected once again. This deeply mixed pbl will become moderately unstable with large DCAPE. Strong downdrafts are likely with any storm that develops while the threat for large hail appears slightly less favorable given modest mid-lvl lapse rates. PWATs around 2 inches or above the 97th percentile will support efficient rainfall with some localized flooding concerns where training occurs. Another cluster of storms is expected to develop across the Central High Plains this evening as the mid/upper trough moves into the Northern Rockies. This cluster may be aided by a developing LLJ nosing into central KS allowing the storms to persist arriving across the area after midnight. The frontal boundary is progged to become stationary across the Flint Hills late tonight. As mid-lvl lapse rates steepen through the night, we could still see a few lingering strong/severe storms across the area.

Some showers and storms may be ongoing early in the day on Sunday with considerable convective debris leading to little or reduced insolation and temperatures were trended lower. The front will become a focus for showers and storms once again as we move through the day. An earlier onset appears likely which may limit the threat for more widespread severe weather before the focus shifts south and east of the area late in the day. Maintained some low pops into Sunday evening with some lingering mid-lvl waa as the pv anomaly moves across the area. Much cooler air will arrive in the wake of the cold front while a slower fropa will result in another mild day in parts of southern KS on Sunday.

Monday-Wednesday...a stable post-frontal regime is anticipated as we move through the middle of the work-week with cool weather expected. Afternoon highs are expected to top out in the 70s with lows in the 50s.

Thursday-Sunday...The mid/upper ridge is progged to reside over the Southern Plains while nosing into the Central Plains as we move into the latter portion of the week. This will allow temperatures to begin to moderate with seasonably mild values anticipated. Flow around this ridge may help steer some shortwave troughs toward the area late in the week and into the weekend and some modest pops were maintained through the period.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms tonight into Sun morning.

Cold front currently stretches from near Emporia to near Hutchinson and is continuing to slowly push south. Storms developed a couple hours ago just south of the front and will affect KICT for the next few hours. Some additional storms tracked out of western KS and are now moving through KRSL-KGBD and will impact KSLN in about an hour. The main impact from these storms will be gusty winds in the 35 to 45 mph range, along with some heavy rain. Some lower clouds are expected to filter south later tonight with high confidence in MVFR levels at KRSL-KGBD-KSLN after 10z. There is a chance these lower cigs could make it down to KHUT. Current thinking is that they will lift back to VFR levels by 17-18z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.