textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms this evening with the higher chances over west/central Kansas. Slightly better shower/storm coverage for Thursday across most of the area. Main threats will be gusty winds and brief heavy rain.

- The most widespread shower and storm chances will be for Saturday night through Sunday and will affect most of central and eastern Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Water vapor imagery along with 88D mosaic shows an upper circulation over the western OK Panhandle. Meanwhile, a broad area of upper ridging stretches from the Lower Mississippi Valley through the Ohio Valley.

We should see an uptick in convection across western KS late this afternoon as the upper impulse continues lifting northeast. Across our forecast area, airmass remains uncapped with plenty of instability. Lack of focus will make it difficult to pin point areas with better chances and like last evening, feel that most of the activity will be focused along outflow from decaying showers/storms. For this evening through the overnight hours, feel that the better shower/storm chances will be tied to the upper impulse as it lifts across western and north central KS. We may see an increase in shower and storm coverage on Thu as we remain in an area of increased 850-700mb moisture transport with PW values around 175% of normal. However, still feel the most widespread area of convection on Thu will be over northeast KS, which will be closer to better upper support.

While we may see some scattered shower/storm activity across eastern KS Fri morning, there should be an overall decrease in activity for Fri afternoon and evening with the higher precip chances across the Southern Plains as a series of weak upper perturbations slide across the area. There remains good agreement with medium range models tracking a southern stream upper impulse out of Mex and into the Southern Plains by Sat afternoon. This feature is then expected to move into west/central KS by Sun morning. The ECMWF is slightly further west with this impulse compared to the GFS, but regardless of which one verifies, the Sat night-Sun evening time frame looks pretty wet, and with PW values remaining unseasonably high, some areas of heavy rain will be possible. Showers and storms are then expected to decrease in coverage for the start of the work week as the upper impulse continues to lift off to the northeast.

Still looking for seasonal temps through the majority of this forecast with a slight warm-up staring at the beginning of next week

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Widely scattered diurnally driven showers will continue to slowly dissipate early this afternoon. Another more organized area of showers and thunderstorms was moving east/northeast into parts of south central Kansas early this evening. This activity is expected to dissipate as it approaches the Hwy 14 corridor but some more isolated shower activity could fester into the overnight hours. Breezy southeast winds will gradually subside before picking up again tomorrow morning. We may see showers and storms develop within a moist airmass by late morning into the mid afternoon hours on Wed with breezy southeast winds. Some MVFR cigs may develop under the shower and storm activity with some transient MVFR cigs during the morning hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.