textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures will continue into Monday with a significant cool down expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Rain chances returning Monday night into Tuesday with better rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible late Monday afternoon through Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show upper shortwave troughing across the Northern Plains with an additional shortwave trough moving into the southeastern US. Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the Central Plains with shortwave ridging sliding into the Southern Plains. At the surface, low pressure sits over southern Ontario with a cold front draping down through Wisconsin into the Middle Mississippi Valley and into northern Kansas.

As we move into Monday, thickness will increase across our area as upper ridging increases over the southwestern US into the Southern Plains. This combined with 850-700 mb westerly winds will help aid in another day of above normal temperatures with highs generally in the mid to upper 80s on Monday afternoon. A dryline looks to setup in southeast KS late Monday afternoon and extend down into Oklahoma with instability and mid-level lapse rates increasing. Storms may try to initiate along this boundary, though given the CIN, storm chances may stay low until the low-level jet ramps up Monday evening. Additionally, an upper trough will dig into the Northern Plains by Monday afternoon, which will strengthen the cold front and push it south through our area late Monday night. This cold front along with the LLJ will increase storm chances across eastern KS Monday night into early Tuesday. The primary threat would be small hail given decent instability, steep mid-level lapse rates, and 35- 40 kts of effective shear.

Behind the cold front, much cooler temperatures are forecast with highs mainly in the 50s to the lower 60s across the area on Tuesday afternoon. Model guidance hints at an upper trough off the shore of California moving into the southwestern CONUS late Tuesday and phasing with the upper trough over the Northern Plains as it digs into the Central Rockies. This trough will increase rain chances across the region combined with 700mb frontogenesis. Given the lack of instability, mainly rain showers are expected late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Rain chances may continue into Wednesday afternoon as this trough continues to shift east with rain chances decreasing into Wednesday night. Well below normal temperatures are anticipated for Wednesday with highs in the 50s.

As the aforementioned upper trough continues to move east, upper ridging is progged to build into the western CONUS, which will shift flow aloft back to northwesterly over the region. Thickness will start to increase promoting a warming trend starting Thursday and continuing into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 620 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR conditions expected for all sites through the forecast period. Southwesterly winds will prevail for all sites for the next couple of hours. As a weak frontal boundary and surface low settles over central Kansas, winds will become light and variable. Current model guidance suggests this surface low will remain over central Kansas through the end of the forecast period leading to a prolonged period of VRB winds for RSL and GBD. Ahead of the boundary for south-central and southeastern Kansas sites, LLWS will be a concern after 03Z through around 12Z. Look for 50kt winds at around 1400 ft.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.