textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild to warm temperatures forecast over the next 7 days.

- Periodic low rain chances beginning Tuesday night through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

Water vapor satellite and 500mb RAP analysis early this afternoon shows a robust mid/upper trough across the northeast CONUS, a cutoff upper low just west of the Baja Peninsula, and broad upper riding over the southern CONUS. At the surface, a fairly tight pressure gradient is positioned across the central plains with breezy southerly winds expected to persist through the early evening hours. Wind gusts along and west of the I-135 corridor will generally be around 25 to 35 mph this afternoon. This is allowing widespread temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 50s with a few locations likely exceeding 60 degrees later this afternoon. A weak front will sag into the forecast area overnight tonight and will wash out by Sunday morning. Light westerly winds will generally support a bit of downsloping, and Sunday afternoon temperatures will be a bit warmer with widespread 60s expected. South to southwest winds resume on Monday, and afternoon highs are likely to rise well into the 70s!

Currently, mid to long range deterministic and ensemble guidance suggests a gradual pattern change is likely beginning on Tuesday. The aforementioned upper level low near the Baja Peninsula will open up and translate eastward on Tuesday. However, it will likely be just a bit too far south for the area to see much of anything. Still low rain chances have been held across portions of southeast Kansas Tuesday night, but little to no impacts are expected. After a bit of a break on Wednesday, broad southwesterly upper flow is signaled to dominate the region from Thursday through the beginning of next week. There are some doubts about how much moisture will be available; however, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within this flow would generally support an active pattern. With temperatures anticipated to be on the warmer side, precip type should be just rain should any precip occur late next week and into the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 452 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions will prevail over the next 24 hours.

Breezy southerly winds will decrease after 00Z this evening. Winds will gradually shift to northwesterly overnight and will remain light throughout the day on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 231 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

THIS AFTERNOON...Breezy/gusty south winds and above normal temperatures could support some lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger values mainly west of the Flint Hills. Red flag fire danger not expected.

MONDAY...Breezy/gusty south winds and well above normal temperatures in the 70s could support another day of lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger values mainly along/west of the Flint Hills. Red flag fire danger not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.