textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild, above average temperatures are expected this week with highs generally in the 70s through the forecast period.

- Gusty southerly winds will result in very high grassland fire danger over parts of central and south central KS this afternoon.

- Strong and severe storms will be possible late in the week and over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

A clipper system moving eastward along the Canadian border will drive a cold front southward into the Central Plains today. This front is progged to arrive over our central KS counties in the 21- 22Z timeframe. South of the front, breezy southerly winds are expected with mild, above average temperatures. Most areas can expect to see highs climbing into the mid and upper 70s. Initially, parcels along the front may remain capped to deep moist convection with sub optimal moisture progged in the pbl. Given relatively robust low level mass convergence along the frontal boundary and continued weak low level moisture advection we could see an isolated updraft or two in the 7-10 pm timeframe. Point soundings in central Kansas show a deeply mixed inverted-v profile, so any storm that develops would pose a threat for strong/damaging winds. The frontal boundary is progged to become stationary along the I-70 corridor this evening and as the LLJ ramps up we could see some redevelopment over parts of central and perhaps south central KS where MUCAPE around 600 J/KG is progged along the nose of a modest LLJ. Steep mid- lvl lapse rates may result in some small hail but confidence in more robust strong/severe storms remains fairly low at this time.

As we move into Thursday, low level moisture advection is progged to continue with some low/mid 50 dewpoints progged to arrive as we move into the afternoon hours. The stationary boundary over the I-70 corridor is progged to mix northward through the day although we are seeing a wide range of possible solutions. Regardless of how far north the front mixes, a secondary shortwave trough sweeping over the Northern Plains will drive the frontal boundary southward once again as we move into the evening hours on Thursday. The front may become a focus for showers and storms as the nocturnal LLJ ramps up Thursday night with the biggest impacts expected over our central KS counties during the evening hours when we could see a few severe storms. We continue to reside just south of the belt of stronger mid- lvl flow but deep layer shear may be sufficient for some storm organization Thursday evening/night in our central KS counties where a wind/hail threat may exist.

The frontal boundary is progged to meander southward Thursday night into Friday becoming stationary across southern KS/northern OK. The airmass along and south of the front will become increasingly unstable as low level moisture pools along the frontal zone in a weakly capped airmass. Showers and storms may be ongoing through much of the period across southern KS as we remain in a persistent mid-lvl waa regime but confidence in the details remains fairly low. The front may once again mix northward Friday night with a threat for showers and storms lingering through much of the period. Training of storms along the frontal boundary on Friday and additional storm activity Friday night may produce some pockets of heavy rain with PWATs progged near the daily max for all TOP soundings for Apr 10.

A shortwave trough is progged to lift out of the Southern Rockies on Saturday with rich moisture in the pbl. A weakly capped airmass is anticipated during the afternoon hours allowing showers and storms to develop across much of the area. Storms may become most numerous Saturday night as steep mid-lvl lapse rates spread over the area resulting in MUCAPE around 1000 J/KG although deep layer shear is only progged to be around 20-30 knots with a continuation of very high PWATs lingering over the region. Efficient rain and potential flooding concerns will remain possible across much of the area through Sat night although the threat for severe storms may be somewhat lower.

Sunday-Monday...Showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing early on Sunday while we see more uncertainty as we move into the afternoon hours. We may see a lull in the wake of a shortwave trough with low level winds veered while a cap could preclude deep moist convection leading to low confidence in storms on Sunday afternoon. Another round of severe storms could materialize on Monday over southeast Kansas as the upper trough approaches from the west but confidence in how this will play out remains fairly low at this time.

The mid/upper trough may finally begin to shear east and northeast across the area on Tuesday while a frontal boundary ushers in more stable air. Strong or severe storms could be possible again on Tuesday but confidence in the timing/strength of the trough remains somewhat low.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 543 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Low-level wind shear will diminish by around 14Z as gusty southerly winds develop over the area, peaking during the morning hours with gusts around 35 mph possible.

A cold front will move into central KS after 21-22Z shifting winds to the north with some isolated storms possible.

More widely scattered shower and storm activity may develop overnight as the LLJ develops, especially near RSL-SLN-GBD and possibly HUT. This was handled with PROB30 groups during the evening hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Breezy southerly winds combined with above normal temperatures and low humidity values will result in a very high grassland fire danger for portions of central and south central Kansas this afternoon before rain and storms develop late in the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.