textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered showers/thunderstorms through mid this evening. A marginally severe thunderstorm can't be ruled out.

- Numerous/widespread showers and thunderstorms later tonight through early afternoon Sunday. Severe weather not expected.

- An isolated severe thunderstorm possible both Sunday and Monday late afternoon-evening.

- Better chances for thunderstorms and associated severe weather late Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday.

- Additional thunderstorm chances possible next Friday- Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

THUNDERSTORMS/SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A subtle mid-level wave approaching from the west amidst a moist, unstable, and uncapped airmass should support isolated to widely scattered hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms areawide. Poor mid-level lapse rates and marginal deep layer shear should preclude widespread severe weather, although the marginal buoyancy/shear combination in conjunction with the approaching mid-level wave may support a marginally severe thunderstorm through 10 PM, especially west of the KS Turnpike. Additionally, anomalously high precipitable waters will support pockets of heavy rainfall.

LATER TONIGHT--SUNDAY MORNING...Another subtle wave approaching from Mexico will be the focus for widespread/numerous showers and thunderstorms well after midnight through midday Sunday, with the highest chances generally along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike. Once again, the primary threat will be pockets of heavy rainfall and perhaps some localized minor flooding given the deep fetch of anomalous precipitable waters.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...In wake of the departing upper wave, thinking large-scale subsidence will overspread the forecast area by late Sunday, which should tend to suppress additional thunderstorm development. However, some modest dryline convergence may support an isolated thunderstorm or two after 5-6 PM generally along/west of I-135. Given the increasingly favorable combination of vertical shear and buoyancy, severe weather will be possible with any storm that can manage to develop.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON-EVENING...Similar to Sunday, Monday's severe weather threat is conditional, as storm development will likely struggle given only modest dryline convergence and little to no upper forcing. However, if a storm or two is able to develop, a very favorable combination of strong buoyancy and 40-50 kts of shear oriented perpendicular to the dryline would support supercells capable of all severe weather hazards. Area and time would be mainly west of the Flint Hills after 5 PM.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY...This period appears to have the greatest potential for severe thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave approaching from the west interacts with a very moist/unstable warm sector along/east of a sharpening dryline. While there remains some forecast uncertainty given this is still 3-4 days out (namely robust dryline convergence for storm initiation may be lacking), the degree of buoyancy and shear would support the greatest severe weather threat, with supercells capable of all severe hazards. Regarding timing, the latest ECMWF keeps the thunderstorm threat through Wednesday evening given a slower shortwave motion. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

NEXT FRIDAY--SATURDAY...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a reloading moist/unstable warm sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. This could support another round of thunderstorms (possibly severe?) as we head into Friday--Saturday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures look to likely persist through much of next week. The warmest days look to be Monday, Tuesday, and Thursday, when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into next weekend, model consensus supports a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures possible.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A upper level wave will move across the region this afternoon with scattered showers/storms developing over the area. Meanwhile gusty south winds will prevail across the area into the evening hours. Another round of showers/storms is expected late tonight mainly for locations along and east of the Kansas turnpike. This activity will spread slowly eastward and linger over southeast Kansas during the morning hours on Sunday. In addition, low clouds in MVFR/IFR category will develop late tonight over southern and southeast Kansas.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

MONDAY--TUESDAY...Lower relative humidity west of a dryline amidst continued breezy/gusty south to southwest winds may support VERY HIGH grassland fire danger generally west of Interstate 135. Otherwise, spring green-up amidst rather high daytime humidity values should keep grassfire danger in check for most areas generally east of I-135 the next 7 days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.