textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Milder & breezy today.

- Warmer temperatures return by Monday.

- Low isolated storm chances possible late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Early this morning, a deep layer trough over the Midwest continues to trek eastward while an extensive ridge remains centered over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, the cold front that passed through the area yesterday is moving south and east of the Ozarks. A tight pressure gradient is present across eastern Kansas and western Missouri between a robust surface low over the Midwest and a surface ridge sinking southward into the northern/central plains. As a result, breezy northerly winds are expected today, mainly along and east of the Flint Hills. Wind gusts late this morning into early this afternoon could exceed 35 mph at times across eastern Kansas. Winds should gradually decrease as the surface low departs eastward and the pressure gradient relaxes. These northerly winds will also serve to continue advecting milder air into the region. Temperatures will only top out in the 80s this afternoon, and lows will dip into the mid 60s tonight. While winds will be lighter and turn more easterly/southeasterly on Sunday, slightly below average temperatures will linger with afternoon highs in the mid 80s and low 90s, and overnight lows in the mid 60s.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

Mid range ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues to show a rebound in temperatures, beginning on Monday, thanks in part to gradual height rises aloft from a weak upper ridge building across the central plains. In general, afternoon highs will return to the mid to upper 90s throughout much of the week, with some locations potentially reaching 100 at least one day of next week. Despite temperatures being slightly above average, dewpoints will generally stay at or below the mid 60s which should keep heat indices at or below 100. Meanwhile, the precipitation forecast next week remains somewhat nebulous. The 00Z deterministic model suite seems to be in modest agreement that a weak frontal boundary/surface trough will stall across Kansas and could potentially be the focus for isolated low storm chances each evening/night late next week. That being said, it remains unclear if sufficient moisture/instability will be able to support storm development. Therefore, storm chances remain low for Wednesday and beyond.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1050 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Northerly winds will continue gusting between 25-30 knots for south- central and southeast Kansas through 00Z. Winds for all locations will fall below 10 knots generally between 00-03Z. A weak surface trough will pass over central Kansas during the overnight and morning hours leading to very light and variable winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.