textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread rainfall expected Friday evening through late Saturday night. No strong or severe storms expected.

- Warm, dry, and windy conditions early next week will support elevated to critical fire weather concerns each afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Early this afternoon, broad upper ridging remains in place across the southern CONUS while a positively-tilted trough is draped from the northern Rockies into the eastern Pacific. The aforementioned upper ridging is supporting seasonably mild temperatures in the 60s this afternoon. A weak cold front will stall and wash out across the forecast area tonight. Light winds due to the associated pressure trough along with modest coverage of high clouds should allow for decent radiational cooling, and much of the area should easily see temperatures drop into the 30s by Friday morning.

The aforementioned trough will gradually translate eastward Friday and Saturday and will be the catalyst for active weather this weekend. Short-to-mid range guidance is coming into better agreement that a relative progressive, sharp, positively tilted shortwave trough will skate across the southern & central plains late Friday through early Sunday. Robust synoptic ascent from a number of sources along with ample moisture being pulled northward will support multiple rounds of showers late Friday through much of Saturday. A hint of elevated instability briefly overspreading portions of southern and southeast Kansas could support some isolated thunderstorms overnight Friday into Saturday morning; however, strong to severe storms are not expected. There are some minor differences in the short-to-mid range model guidance with respect to the exact track of this system which could impact how widespread the higher QPFs will be. However, in general, at least an inch of rainfall appears likely along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike by early Sunday morning. Locations to the north and west of the Turnpike are more likely to see rainfall totals around 0.25" to 0.75", and those along I-70 may only see around 0.10". Regardless, this will be welcome rainfall, especially across far southern and southeast Kansas where D0 to D1 drought has begun to creep in due to the lack of consistent, meaningful precipitation this winter. Widespread flooding is not anticipated with this particular system, but perhaps a few localized flood prone areas could see some minor flooding, especially if any area experiences brief training of heavier showers and thunderstorms. Rain chances will gradually come to an end from west to east late Saturday night into Sunday morning.

For Sunday and Monday, long range models continue to show a strong signal for potent mid/upper ridging overspreading the central plains. This will support above average temperatures across the central portions of the CONUS. Afterwards, guidance suggests another strong system likely to enter into the central plains Tuesday and Wednesday. This system appears likely to bring dry and windy conditions on top of the already present well-above average temperatures. Even with the likelihood of ample rainfall this weekend, fire weather concerns appear increasingly likely next week, especially on Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 522 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds have turned out of the north for central Kansas sites with northerly winds expected for south-central Kansas over the next few hours. Light winds will then turn easterly between 16-18Z. Mid-level clouds will begin increasing ahead of the next system during the late morning/afternoon hours. Rain showers are expected to increase in coverage towards the very end of the forecast period, but did not include mention in the TAF yet due to some lingering uncertainty on exact timing and coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

MON-WED...A return to well above average temperatures in the 60s-70s, periodic stout/gusty south-southwest winds, and dry conditions are likely throughout the beginning of next week. This warm, windy, and dry combination should support periodic elevated grassfire danger, particularly during the afternoon hours each day. There continues to be some potential for critical/red flag fire danger at times if dewpoints/humidity can remain low enough, especially Tuesday. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.