textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- High Wind Warning and Wind Advisory are in effect from early Sunday through Sunday evening as strong northwesterly winds gust up to 60 mph, with some areas approaching 65 mph in central KS.

- Strong cold front moving through on Sunday bringing much colder air and possible snow showers on Sunday afternoon through the evening.

- Substantial warm-up expected next week with highs rising into the 80s late in the work week and continuing into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis show an upper shortwave trough exiting the northeastern US with an additional shortwave moving into the Northern Rockies and mostly zonal flow aloft between these two features. At the surface, low pressure sits over the High Plains with surface troughing extending into the Southern Plains. A warm front extends from near the KS/NE border through the Middle Mississippi Valley into the KY/TN border. A cold front stretches from central Wyoming through southern Idaho into southern Oregon. In our area, breezy southerly winds continue with highs rising into the 70s.

The aforementioned shortwave trough over the Northern Rockies will continue to dig into the Central Rockies late Saturday night and eject into the Plains by Sunday morning. This will push a deep surface low and strong cold front through the Central Plains on Sunday morning, with the front south of our area by Sunday afternoon. Behind this front, very strong northwesterly winds are expected to mix down, starting early Sunday morning and continuing through Sunday evening. Sustained winds are forecast to be between 35 to 45 mph with gusts up to 60 mph across much of the area. Its possible for locally higher wind gusts between 60 to 70 mph especially in central KS. Farther southeast, winds will be between 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph. Given this potential, a High Wind Warning has been issued for central, south-central, and portions of southeast KS. A Wind Advisory has been issued for far southeast KS where winds are expected to be a little less than the rest of the area. Blowing dust is also possible west of the Flint Hills especially in central and parts of south-central KS.

Additionally, much colder air will push south resulting in temperatures dropping throughout the day on Sunday with morning high temperatures ranging from the low 40s to the low 60s. By Sunday afternoon, temperatures areawide will drop into the 30s. Along with this, a chance for snow showers is possible in the early afternoon and the evening. Steep low-level lapse rates and benign instability could lead to bursts of moderate snowfall, which could cause drastic reductions in visibility. At this time, little accumulation is expected with up to a half inch anticipated in mainly northeast KS. This would be where colder surface temperatures will be, leading to patchy slick spots especially on bridges and elevated surfaces. Farther south, a mix of rain showers and snow showers is possible, but given the warmer surface temperatures, only a light dusting is likely.

By Monday, the potent upper trough will shift into the Mississippi Valley with the deep surface low over the Great Lakes area. Breezy northwesterly winds and colder temperatures will lead to wind chills in the single digits with values near zero across much of the area. For Tuesday and beyond, upper-level ridging will amplify developing a northwesterly flow regime over the Plains. Ridging is progged to remain in place through the work week with thickness also increasing. High temperatures will begin warming on Tuesday and continue rising with 80s expected areawide by late work week through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very strong/gusty northwest winds will spread southeast across the region later tonight through Sunday morning in wake of a strong cold front. Gusts upwards of 45-55 kts are likely. Additionally, areas of quick-hitting snow showers are likely late morning Sunday through early to mid-evening, drastically reducing visibility at times. However, did not include in the 18z routine TAFs because this is beyond the 24 hour limit.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and increased southerly winds will lead to Very High grassland fire danger this afternoon mainly across central KS. Critical fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not expected.

For Sunday, northwesterly winds will gust up to 50-60 mph causing Very High grassland fire danger. However, given the much colder temperatures moving in along with relative humidity above 45% and some precipitation chances, fire danger concerns should be more limited.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning from 5 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ032-033- 047-048. High Wind Warning from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ049>053- 067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099. Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM CDT Sunday for KSZ072-096-100.