textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Extremely strong northwest winds to overspread the entire area today. Some blowing dust may accompany the strong winds.

- Few snow showers also possible this afternoon, mainly across northeast and eastern KS.

- Falling temperatures expected throughout the day with lows Monday morning in the teens with wind chills in the single digits. Confidence still high that above normal temps are likely by Wednesday and will continue through at least Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a shortwave trough moving across the Central Rockies and about to move out into the High Plains. At the surface, low pressure is centered over central KS with a sharp warm front from northern MO into southern Nebraska with a cold front starting to surge south across northwest KS.

Surface low will quickly slide east this morning and by 12z will be over northern MO, which will allow a strong cold front to surge through KS. Cold front is expected to move through our central KS counties in the 09-11z time frame and move through Wichita in the 13-14z range. Northwest winds won't waste any time ramping-up with gusts 50-55 mph right behind it this morning with an increase expected late this morning/early afternoon where gusts in the 60-65 mph range are possible, especially west of I-135. Did go ahead and expand the potential for blowing dust today to include all of central and south central KS. Winds will quickly come down around or shortly after sunset.

Model trends have been to decrease snow chances across most of the area today, with most very minor accumulation chances over northeast KS. However, still feel that we will see a few snow showers today, especially across northeast portions of our forecast area. Lows Monday morning will be in the teens across the entire area, which will be some of the coldest air we have seen since the middle of February. Gusty north winds will produce wind chills Monday morning in the single digits.

By Mon afternoon, deep upper trough will extend from the Great Lakes into the Tennessee Valley with strong northwest flow in place through the Plains. Northwest flow aloft is anticipated to persist through most of next week, as upper ridging gradually strengthens over the Desert Southwest. This will result in a warming trend starting Tuesday and continuing through at least Saturday. By Thursday, we are looking for widespread highs in the 80s that will continue through Saturday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 625 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be very strong northwest winds along with blowing dust reducing visibility.

Wind shift has made it through KICT with the cold front and significant winds now going through KRSL-KGBD and KSLN soon. KRSL has already gusted to 54kts with these speeds expected to work their way south this morning, reaching KICT in a couple of hours. We have already started to see some reductions in visibility over western KS, likely due to blowing dust and we are also expecting this to affect mainly central KS today, possibly seeing visibilities at 3sm. Also starting to see some rain/snow showers moving out of northwest KS and will affect parts of central KS this morning. Some additional showers will be possible this afternoon, mainly for northeast and eastern KS. Winds will start to come down around sunset with gusts in the 20-25kts remaining through most of the night.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very strong northwesterly winds today will gust up to 55-65 mph causing Very High grassland fire danger. However, given the much colder temperatures moving in along with relative humidity above 45% and some precipitation chances, fire danger concerns should be more limited.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048. High Wind Warning until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053- 067>071-082-083-091>095-098-099. Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ072-096-100.