textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy shallow fog is possible areawide early this morning.

- Unseasonably mild temperatures through Monday/Tuesday, with a cool down commencing by Tuesday/Wednesday.

- Off-and-on rain chances (20-40 percent) return late Tuesday through next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

FOG:

With surface high pressure settling over central and eastern Kansas, could see some patchy shallow ground fog early this morning areawide. Given dense high-level clouds increasing from the west and current dewpoints dropping with the temperatures, thinking potential for dense fog is low.

TEMPERATURES:

Anomalous upper level high pressure settling east over Mid- America will support continued unseasonably mild temperatures through the weekend and into early next week. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the next 7 days, as the thermal ridge settles over the region and southwesterly low-level flow increases ahead of our next cold front. The only daily record high temperature that might be in jeopardy is 74 degrees at Chanute last set in 1932, with all other record highs in the 80s.

As we head into Tuesday and Wednesday, persisting through next Saturday, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a return back closer to normal for February standards, as an eastern CONUS longwave trough pushes Canadian high pressure south into Mid-America. A major cold snap looks unlikely, although highs in the 40s-50s and lows in the 20s-30s look probable. Given global model consensus the past few days, suspect the current NBM is running a bit too warm with this cooler weather, and should eventually cool off some if model consensus continues.

PRECIPITATION:

Building upper level high pressure will support a dry forecast through at least the first half of Tuesday. Thereafter, off- and-on low to moderate probabilities for rain (20-40 percent) could enter back into the forecast by late Tuesday and persist through the weekend, as a couple fast-moving upper troughs traverse Mid-America, with an eventual deepening western CONUS trough late in the period. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency hasn't been the best, so uncertainty remains high on timing, placement, and forecast rainfall amounts. Either way, precipitation type looks to likely remain all liquid across the forecast area given lack of cold air.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1129 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24hrs for all aviation sites across central/southern Kansas. Gusty south winds over central Kansas this afternoon will diminish around sunset then switch to the northwest on Sunday morning. Low level wind shear will impact CNU site during the overnight hours tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 111 AM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

TODAY...Breezy/gusty south winds and above normal temperatures could support some lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger values mainly west of the Flint Hills. Red flag fire danger not expected.

MONDAY...Breezy/gusty south winds and well above normal temperatures in the 70s could support another day of lower-end VERY HIGH grassland fire danger values mainly along/west of the Flint Hills. Red flag fire danger not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.