textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler today with summer-like temperatures for Thursday through the weekend.

- On and off storm chances will return for Wednesday night through the weekend, but confidence in timing and overall coverage is low.

- Pattern change looks to arrive for early next week with near normal temperatures possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The ridge over the western CONUS continues to build as the short wave trough over the Upper Midwest shifts over the Northeast. At the surface, a weak low pressure is situated over the Great Lakes with an associated cold front draped across the Mississippi Valley and over to the Panhandles region. High pressure is settling over the Central Plains from the north. As this feature shifts further south, winds today will turn from the northeast to southerly, increasing across our Central and South-central Kansas counties to between 15- 20 mph. Temperatures this afternoon will be slightly cooler behind the "cold" front, though still 5-10 degrees above normal, with highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s.

Winds will continue to increase across the forecast area through the overnight hours due to the strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure to the southeast and a strengthening low pressure ahead of the next system over the Northern Rockies. Look for southerly winds across the area overnight to reach between 15-25 mph with gusts in Central Kansas approaching 30 mph. We may be able to see a few showers/storms in eastern Kansas very late tonight as moisture increases ahead of the next system with strong southerly flow. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. Temperatures tonight will remain mild under WAA with lows only dipping into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

A mid/upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of the country on Thursday that will send a weak boundary towards KS on Thursday. Ahead of the boundary, widespread 90 degree temperatures are anticipated under the ridge with strong southerly winds. Sustained winds between 20-30 mph are expected with gusts up to 35 mph. As the frontal boundary interacts with around 2000 J/kg CAPE late Thursday afternoon/evening, it could lead to some isolated storm chances for central into eastern Kansas. With shear values in the 30-40 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and isolated strong wind gusts could be possible with the strongest storms.

By Friday, we will be positioned under zonal flow, but with above normal heights. Very warm temperatures will be able to continue for the next few days, topping out in the 80s and 90s each afternoon through the weekend. For Saturday/Saturday night, significant low- level moisture will be in place over the region along with ample instability. A dryline across central Kansas may allow for a few scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon and increase in coverage and progress eastward with a strengthening LLJ. Due to weak overall dynamics, confidence in widespread storm development is low. A deep trough looks to move over the Rockies on Sunday with an associated surface low and cold front sweeping over the Plains Sunday night/Monday. Additional storm development is possible again late Sunday with the approach of this next frontal boundary and dryline. Behind Sunday's system, temperatures for early next week look to dip closer to normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected for Monday and Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.

Winds will gradually veer to the south throughout the period and strengthen overnight into Thursday morning. Sustained speeds across central and south central KS will lie in the 15-25 kt range with gusts in excess of 30 kts especially across central KS.

Elevated showers are possible across portions of southeast KS after midnight. Still pretty low confidence in significant impacts with any activity that manages to develop, so left VCSH at CNU with this cycle. Rain chances should exit the region shortly after sunrise.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Very high fire danger remains likely for Thursday and Sunday afternoons across portions of Central and South-central Kansas.

Strong southerly winds are expected both Thursday and Sunday afternoons with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and wind gusts reaching between 35-40 mph. These gusty winds along with well above normal temperatures in the 90s and RH values in the 15-25% range will lead to Very High grassland fire danger.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.