textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms likely late this afternoon through tonight with potentially significant severe hazards.

- Mostly dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected for Monday through Wednesday with possible rain chances returning late Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Currently there is an upper shortwave moving into the Central Rockies. This shortwave will continue to move east and likely eject into KS late tonight to early hours of Monday morning. At the surface, a warm front is over eastern KS and extends down into western OK with an additional warm front stretched across southern Oklahoma. Severe storms are actively pushing through eastern KS. Portions of central and south-central KS continue to see low clouds and patchy fog. As we move into later this afternoon and evening, clouds will start to clear in northern OK and into southern KS as the warm front across southern OK continues to push north. Instability will increase to values between 2500-3000+ J/kg as moisture advection persists. This instability combined with around 50 kts of effective shear and mid-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km are sufficient for additional severe storm development with potential to be surface based. Large to very large hail will be possible along with damaging winds and a potential tornado given the increasing low-level SRH with this threat mainly across southern and southeast KS. Then as the upper wave approaches later tonight, additional elevated convection will be possible. Destabilization is expected to continue combined with increased 0-6km bulk wind shear over 50kts, and very steep mid-level lapse rates. This activity would mainly be a hail threat across northern KS into central KS and is anticipated to continue to move into northeast KS during the overnight to early morning hours of Monday.

Showers and storms could linger into Monday morning in northern KS and northeast KS with drier air moving in behind a cold front late Monday afternoon. Rich moisture looks to stay well south of our area through Wednesday, resulting in a break of active weather to start the week. Flow aloft will shift to more zonal by Monday night and likely continue through much of the work week. Rain chances may return to the forecast late Wednesday night into Thursday as model soundings hint at elevated showers. Strong to severe thunderstorms are not anticipated given the limited instability. Mild temperatures are progged through most of the week with high temperatures closer to normal with much of the area seeing highs in the upper 60s and 70s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period due to low cigs and reduced vis. Scattered thunderstorms will develop and impact much of the forecast area starting after 02Z and lasting through 08-10Z. Ceilings may lift some during thunderstorm activity, but IFR/LIFR ceilings will continue into Monday morning. Ceilings will begin to lift and clear after 12Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.