textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated shower or storm possible west of Highway 281 through this evening, then again across portions of central and northeast Kansas late tonight into early Friday morning.

- Hot and breezy this weekend through the first half of next week.

- Isolated showers and storms may find their way into portions of central Kansas throughout next week, though most of the area looks to stay dry.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper ridge building over the Four Corners as the first of a series of upper impulses sits near the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, a cold front spans from the Red River Valley to the Great Lakes as high pressure resides over the Central Plains. Gradual destabilization through the remainder of this afternoon and evening may allow for an isolated shower/storm or two to develop along and west of US-281, with better (albeit low) chances residing to the west of the forecast area. Solid DCAPE values indicate the potential for stout wind gusts with the strongest activity during this timeframe. Later tonight into Friday morning, a mid-level baroclinic zone setting up over the area may provide additional low chances for isolated showers and storms especially across central and northeast Kansas. A few isolated strong wind gusts may continue to be possible with the strongest activity, though severe storms appear unlikely.

Following one more day of seasonably warm highs in the low to middle 90s on Friday, the mid/upper ridge will continue to build east into the weekend. This will promote the return of afternoon highs near 100 degrees alongside mostly dry conditions. A slight change in the pattern may look to arrive Sunday and last into the beginning of the work week as a handful of mid-level perturbations track out of the Rockies and into the Northern Plains. These will help slowly drive a frontal boundary southward, with model consensus supporting a placement Sunday evening from northwest Kansas to the northeast into southern Minnesota. On-and-off shower and storm chances may appear along this boundary throughout the week as it stalls, which means the best opportunities for rain should reside across portions of central Kansas to the west and north. The placement for these chances may change as additional model runs become available, though as it stands with this forecast cycle, most of the area looks to remain dry.

South of the aforementioned stalled front, high temperatures in the 100s are progged for many locations for a majority of next week as the mid/upper ridge shifts toward the southeast CONUS. Despite this heat, breezy south winds and dewpoints in the middle to upper 50s should keep conditions from feeling quite as hot, especially for the first half of the week. Additionally, if the front is able to work its way southward into the forecast area, slightly cooler temperatures in the trailing airmass should be realized especially toward the latter half of the week. Stay tuned as additional details become available.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Winds will remain light overnight out of the east to southeast. Winds across the area will become southeast by 16Z and increase above 10 knots. Far central and south-central Kansas sites will see gusts between 20-25 knots.

A thunderstorm complex in northwest Kansas is currently diving south across the state. A few remnant showers may manage to hold together and impact RSL and GBD, but current guidance suggests the activity will diminish and remain west of the TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.