textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warmer temperatures continue through early week.

- Numerous showers/storms look to impact the area Tuesday- Tuesday night with a risk of severe storms and heavy rainfall.

- Low end very high fire danger for Monday with Thursday showing a greater risk for elevated grassland fire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Currently, the trough is lifting out of the region and is draped over the Great Lakes. A mid/upper level cutoff low has separated from the primary flow and is located off the coast of the Baja Peninsula. Aloft, northwesterly flow is turning westerly today as we transition into a more zonal pattern. At the surface, high pressure is centered off to our southeast with a weak surface trough extending across the High Plains. This pressure gradient orientation is leading to breezy southwesterly winds across the forecast area and is aiding in a pleasant warm-up this afternoon.

For the rest of today and into Monday, a more stable pattern is expected with a significant warming trend taking place through early week. Highs today will reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and by Monday temperatures will top out in the middle to upper 70s. Mostly clear skies and breezy southwest winds are expected during this period. Previous concerns about very high fire danger today have lessened as ground moisture content remains high. A few areas across SEKS could reach very high fire danger on Monday with breezy southwesterly winds and well above normal temps.

By Tuesday, the mid/upper level cutoff low will lift into the Southern Plains as a trough begins to dig in from the north. These features will interact with strong moisture advection from the Gulf on Tuesday through Tuesday night leading to shower and thunderstorm development. Given the relatively potent frontal boundaries moving into an unstable environment, another chance for strong to severe weather looks likely with this activity.

Behind this activity, upper level troughing will dominate on Wednesday with the surface high centered overhead meaning temperatures will take a tumble once again into the 50s. As the high shifts southeast on Thursday and a low pressure system deepens to the north, a tight pressure gradient will develop over the state leading to strong southwesterly winds for Thursday afternoon. Sustained winds around 25 mph with gusts in excess of 35 mph are possible. Weak ridging will build back in for the end of the week and into the weekend leading to clearing skies and warming temperatures once again. Look for highs each afternoon to reach into the upper 60s to lower 70s areawide.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1229 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Low-level wind shear will affect mainly south-central and southeast KS through 12z. Light southwesterly winds will continue at ICT, HUT, and SLN with winds picking up at CNU by the late morning with gusts up to 25 kts. Winds will shift to northwesterly at GBD and RSL around 15z as a surface trough moves into northern KS then light winds will shift back to southerly around 00z.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Fire weather concerns have lessened for this afternoon as lingering ground moisture should limit fire danger. For Monday, drier conditions, well above normal temperatures, and breezy conditions will lead to areas of very high fire danger across southeast Kansas. Rain on Tuesday/Tuesday night will hinder any fire concerns through Wednesday. Then on Thursday, above normal temperatures, lower RH values, and strong southwesterly winds will lead to worsening fire weather conditions. Much of the area could see very high fire danger with locations in central Kansas potentially reaching extreme fire danger during the afternoon hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.