textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler today with moderating temperatures Sunday-Monday.

- Gusty southwest winds on Wednesday could result in very high to extreme grassland fire danger for parts of central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Currently, the upper-level trough is situated over the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest. At the surface, the corresponding surface low pressure is centered over the Great Lakes region with a cold front extending into the Southern Plains. The surface high pressure is centered over the western U.S. but is beginning to nudge into the Plains this afternoon. Stout northwesterly winds have been impacting the forecast area today, ushering in much cooler air. Temperatures early this afternoon remain in the lower to middle 50s with highs today reaching only into the upper 50s to around 60 degrees. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 30s as winds turn northerly and diminish significantly with frost expected primarily for our central Kansas counties. Light northerly winds, clear skies and highs in the 60s are expected on Sunday.

For Monday, a subtle shortwave will pass over the Upper Midwest and drag a weak frontal boundary across the state throughout the day. A few showers are expected across northeastern Kansas on Monday evening through the overnight hours, but no precip chances will extend into our area. Slightly cooler temperatures are expected for Monday night.

On Tuesday, the trough will begin to exit the region to the east and ridging will build in from the west. The weak boundary from Monday will lift back across the area late in the day as a warm front. The next trough to impact our area will be digging into the Pac. Northwest by PM Tuesday with a strengthening surface low over the Northern Rockies. A shortwave ahead of the main system on Tuesday night could lead to isolated shower/storm chances, but coverage looks minimal at this time. By Wednesday, the northern U.S. system will move through the Northern Plains into the Upper Midwest and our area will see slightly warmer temperatures behind the warm front with afternoon highs reaching into the 70s. Strong southerly winds are expected on Wednesday afternoon as a strong pressure gradient develops ahead of the trough.

For Thursday through the end of the period, we get into a fairly active pattern as a frontal boundary stalls across our area and moisture surges northward with PWATs in the 1-1.5 inch range. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected for Thursday into the weekend with some strong to severe storms possible. Near normal temperatures are expected to end the period with highs around 70 and lows around 50.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Northwest winds around 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots at times will diminish after 00Z this evening. While winds will remain out of the north or northwest, they will be light through the overnight hours tonight and into the morning hours of Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Breezy northwest winds will result in very high grassland fire danger over portions of central Kansas this afternoon.

After a brief break on Sunday, breezy southeast winds will return resulting in a very high grassland fire danger over much of central and parts of south central Kansas on Monday and Tuesday during the afternoon hours.

Strong southwest winds will develop across the area on Wednesday with minimum relative humidity falling below 30 percent over parts of central Kansas resulting in extreme grassland fire danger while much of south central Kansas and the Flint Hills will experience a very high grassland fire danger on Wednesday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.