textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for storms late tonight into Wednesday morning. Some may be strong to marginally severe with up to quarter size hail being the primary concern.

- Additional chances for strong to severe storms possible late Thursday through early Saturday.

- A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend, but the beginning of next week is looking more active once again.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

ACTIVE EARLY SPRING PATTERN AHEAD...

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery clearly shows a sharp shortwave trough located over the Rockies and progressing eastward towards the central plains. Ahead of this feature, ample mid-level warm air advection and moisture transport are overspreading the region. This may support the development of a few showers and storms later this morning across far eastern Kansas into Missouri. Additionally, saturated low-levels with low-level isentropic ascent is supporting widespread drizzle, especially across central and northeastern Kansas this morning. Lastly, fog is developing across portions of northern and western Kansas, and as the saturated low-levels get shallower this morning, drizzle will likely transition to fog before mixing out by early this afternoon.

A frontal boundary is likely to move northward out of Oklahoma this afternoon and into far southeast Kansas. This should allow for a fairly wide spread in high temperatures today, especially with thick stratus persisting north of this frontal boundary. Generally speaking, afternoon temps in the 60s and 70s are anticipated across southeast Kansas while the rest of the forecast area will only see highs in the 40s and 50s. Despite fairly robust surface convergence along the front, surface convection this afternoon will likely be thwarted by strong capping. However, as the trough progresses eastward into the region, height falls and vorticity advection aloft will aid in broad synoptic lift overspreading the area. As a result, capping should erode, and scattered elevated convection is likely to develop behind the frontal boundary. Overall, short- term guidance has been trending this convection just a bit farther south, and it's most likely that locations along and south of US-54 could see strong to marginally severe convection tonight into early Wednesday. Due to the elevated nature of these storms (likely rooted above 800 mb), damaging wind gusts and tornadoes are NOT expected with this activity. However, ~1500 J/kg of elevated instability, and deep layer shear around 40 knots, should support organized convection capable of producing large hail up to quarter size (although larger hail cannot be ruled out). Storms will last into early Wednesday morning as they progress eastward, and portions of southeast Kansas may not see rain chances end until the mid-afternoon hours on Wednesday. A brief break in activity is anticipated Wednesday afternoon through much of Thursday before chances for showers and storms return late Thursday night.

More precise details for Thursday and Friday are still a bit difficult to pin down given that this system is still well off the California coastline as of this morning. With that said, guidance has been fairly consistent. Most of Thursday is likely to be on the quiet side with the main focus being on increasing southerly low-level flow ushering in ample moisture during the afternoon and evening hours. Guidance has been honing in on the idea that a lead impulse embedded in southwesterly flow aloft will be more than enough to trigger numerous storms across the southern High Plains Thursday evening. This activity will continue northeastward into the forecast area by late Thursday night into Friday morning. Robust moisture return ahead of these storms along with relatively weak capping, modest instability, and sufficient wind shear, should support somewhat organized convection with the potential of producing large hail and marginally severe wind gusts late Thursday night into Friday morning. This activity should exit eastward late Friday morning, and it appears as through quick atmospheric recovery should take place ahead of a dryline out in western Kansas and a cold front crashing southward out of Nebraska. With weak capping, sufficient synoptic lift due to the incoming upper trough, and enough surface convergence along the dryline and cold front, scattered thunderstorms are anticipated to develop across the forecast area Friday evening and last into early Saturday morning as the cold front pushes southeast. Similar to Thursday, sufficient instability and shear will be present to support organized convection. Although, with storm motions running parallel to the frontal boundary, any early supercell structures should merge into a line of storms. Generally speaking, the main hazards are likely to be limited to large hail and damaging winds.

A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend. However, mid to long range guidance suggests another round of active weather is increasingly likely towards the beginning of next week. Details are difficult to pin down in the day 7-10 time frame, so be sure to stay turned for updates.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 527 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Poor aviation conditions likely to continue through the TAF period.

Currently, much of central, and portions of south-central Kansas are socked in with dense fog and visibility around one-half to one-quarter of a mile. Additionally, IFR to LIFR ceilings have overspread most of the area along and west of the Flint Hills. Meanwhile, portions of southeast Kansas are experiencing VFR conditions with some patchy drizzle cause intermittent vis reductions.

Throughout the day, dense fog is generally expected to gradually mix out after sunrise, though this could be a very slow process across central Kansas. Additionally, MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected to persist across much of the area, including overspreading southeast Kansas. A few showers cannot be ruled out this morning and afternoon along and northeast of a KSLN- KCNU line, but this should pose little concern to most locations.

Late tonight, generally after 03Z, showers and storms are forecast to develop across portions of southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma. Quarter-size hail and a few lightning strikes are the primary concern with the strongest activity. The stronger storms should stay along and south of a KICT-KCNU line overnight tonight and into Wednesday morning.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will result in a very high fire danger over parts of central Kansas both Thursday and Friday afternoon. However, rainfall is expected to preclude more widespread fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-047>051- 067-068-082.