textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms possible this afternoon into the early evening, primarily along/east of the Flint Hills.

- Hot Tuesday, with high temperatures areawide near/above 100 degrees and heat indices around 105. This heat may linger into Wednesday across southern Kansas.

- A shift in the dry pattern arrives Tuesday night with showers and storm chances lingering through the end of the week.

- Cooler, yet seasonably warm temperatures anticipated areawide Thursday through the upcoming weekend before a taste of autumn arrives early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 205 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict continued ridging over the central CONUS as an upper shortwave pivots over the Northern Rockies. Surface analysis indicates a stationary boundary spanning from the Northern High Plains to the Red River Valley. This boundary is anticipated to slowly drift eastward throughout the day today, and MLCAPE to its east around 1000-1500 J/kg amid a weakly capped airmass will allow for another round of showers and storms across eastern Kansas later this afternoon into early evening. Similar to Sunday, DCAPE values progged around 1300 J/kg indicate strong to marginally severe downburst winds with the strongest activity, which should reside roughly along and east of the Flint Hills. Effective shear around 20-25 kts suggests limited organization and more of a pulse storm mode. As such, we are expecting activity to remain mostly isolated with chances greatly diminishing around sunset with the loss of daytime heating.

High temperatures in the low 100s are forecast areawide for Tuesday afternoon with ridging remaining in place. A pattern change continues to be expected later in the day, however, as a shortwave ejects into the Northern Plains. This will drive a cold front south across the Plains, and this feature will bring scattered shower and storm chances to central Kansas by late afternoon or early evening. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time, deep-layer shear oriented largely parallel to the front may allow for severe wind gusts if storms manage to become linear.

The cold front will continue south on Wednesday and promote chances for showers and storms throughout the forecast area. Daytime high temperatures will be heavily influenced by this boundary, with locations behind it expected to see readings near 90 degrees and locations ahead of it potentially seeing another day of readings in the low 100s. PW values in the 1.7-2" range in the vicinity of the front suggest the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall across the area, which could lead to localized flooding concerns particularly across southeast Kansas. For Thursday, highs in the post-frontal airmass will reach into the upper 80s areawide as weak southerly winds return to the region.

Chances for showers and storms are forecast to return Thursday night into Friday with long-range guidance signaling the potential for low/mid-level WAA increasing across the forecast area. For Friday, breezy southerly flow ahead of a surface trough developing across the High Plains will promote warming back into the low to middle 90s, and these temperatures will look to persist into Saturday before another cold front sweeps across the forecast area. This boundary will bring additional chances for showers and storms to the region but will likely not bring cooler temperatures as guidance suggests return flow quickly resuming by Sunday. This looks to change, however, by perhaps next Monday or Tuesday with long- range consensus indicating a strong mid/upper impulse tracking across the Northern Plains once again and driving yet another cold front across the Central Plains. While details remain unclear, seasonably cool (or perhaps even cooler) temperatures appear possible with the passage of this system. Stay tuned as additional information becomes available.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Gusty southerly winds will be the primary aviation concern through 02Z and then after 14Z. Wind gusts between 20-30 knots are possible across the region. Winds will remain around 10 knots during the overnight period for all sites except CNU.

A few spotty showers/storms will be possible once again between 19-01Z across southeast Kansas. Gusty winds and briefly reduced vis are the most likely impacts under the strongest activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.