textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers/storms today and tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible.

- Much cooler air gradually filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across mainly central KS.

- Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

PRECIPITATION CHANCES:

TODAY--THURSDAY...Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along with areas of drizzle will continue to impact the region today and tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday, as a deep upper trough approaching slowly from the west interacts with a nearly stalled deep frontal zone across the region. Continued unseasonably rich precipitable waters, strong forcing, and marginal buoyancy should lead to pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding issues. However, with the exception of possibly far SE KS, much of the current flood watch is probably done with high convective rainfall rates and associated widespread flooding concerns, as this potential has shifted south into mostly Oklahoma (per HREF and REFS consensus) where the better instability resides. Nevertheless, will continue the flood watch as-is for now and let the day shift diagnose radar and model trends further.

SUNDAY NIGHT--MONDAY...A stubborn southwest CONUS upper low is expected to finally eject east-northeast this weekend, possibly bring some low precipitation chances to Mid-America Sunday night into Monday. The GFS and associated ensemble mean are more bullish with precipitation chances than other global model guidance, so left the forecast dry for now.

MID-LATE NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports another deep western CONUS upper trough taking shape next week, which could support another round of showers/thunderstorms across the region by mid-late week. Still quite a bit of uncertainty and model spread, so stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES & WIND:

TODAY-THURSDAY...Had to undercut NBM high temperatures once again today and Thursday, and probably not quite enough, due to widespread clouds/precipitation and the shallow cool airmass spreading south across the region (which the NBM does not handle well). That said, thinking central KS will stay in the 50s today, with 70s likely over far southeast KS. Thursday temperatures should be fairly similar to today. Stout/gusty north winds will expand southeast across the region Thursday in wake of this strong storm system.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...A deepening central to eastern North American upper trough will drive strong Canadian high pressure south into Mid- America, supporting the coolest air thus far this fall season. High temperatures in the 50s to lows 60s appear likely. Additionally, stout/gusty north winds Friday will make it feel even cooler. The coolest night will be Friday night, with lows likely dipping into the 30s to low 40s underneath the strong high pressure. Given the light winds and clear skies, frost is looking probable for mainly central KS early Saturday.

SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Model consensus supports a quick return to seasonable or even above normal temperatures, especially by next week, as another deep upper trough sets up over the western CONUS.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Main aviation concerns will be storm chances along with very low cigs and reduced visibility.

Currently have a deep upper low centered over the Four Corners region with a cold front extending from southern MO through far southeast KS and into western OK. Broad area of 850-700mb moisture transport and upper diffluence will keep at least some scattered showers and storms around through the day, with southern KS seeing the better chances. We are then expecting an uptick in activity this evening and overnight as strong upper jet slides east and brings another surge in 850mb theta-e advection. The more widespread activity associated with this is expected after 03z across the Flint Hills into southeast KS, mainly affecting KCNU where heavy rain may reduce vis to around or less than 2sm.

Low clouds and fog are also expected to persist through the overnight hours across central KS which will remain north of the cold front. So will run with LIFR cigs this evening through Thu morning at most sites with KRSL-KGBD-KHUT having the best chance to see vis around or less than 2sm after 04z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ051>053-067>072- 082-083-091>096-098>100.