textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off and on showers with isolated storms possible tonight through Sunday morning.

- A strong storm or two cannot be ruled out on Friday across far southern Kansas.

- Staying mild to end the week, then a warming trend begins this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Early this afternoon, water vapor satellite and RAP upper air analysis shows broad troughing across the western half of the CONUS. Synoptic ascent ahead of this trough is increasing this afternoon, and scattered showers and storms are expected to develop across portions of the High Plains this afternoon and evening. This activity is expected to move north and east into the forecast area by late tonight; however, meager elevated instability and weak shear should significantly limit the intensity of this activity, and no strong or severe storms are expected tonight into Thursday morning.

Broad mid/upper troughing will remain consistent across the western CONUS, and embedded shortwave perturbations in the flow will support additional rounds of showers and storms Thursday through early Sunday. It's possible that much of the area remains dry on Thursday (after activity comes to an end Thursday morning) with clusters of storms expected to occur across Oklahoma along with northern Kansas into southern Nebraska. Isolated storms will also develop across the High Plains, and this activity may last into the nighttime hours as it moves east into the forecast area. Similar to late tonight, strong to severe storms appear unlikely on Thursday evening and night. A similar setup is anticipated on Friday, through there is a much better signal for ascent across Oklahoma Friday afternoon and evening. Still, a stray storm may occur as far north as southern Kansas, and sufficient instability and shear may support strong storm capable of small hail and gusty winds. The previously mentioned broad upper troughing finally pushes across the area on Saturday, and more widespread showers and storms are possible Saturday afternoon through night. Most of the activity will likely be confined to locations along and east of I-135. Again, with limited instability and shear, strong to severe storms appear unlikely. The NBM maintains low chances for showers and storms across southeast Kansas heading into next week, but based on the synoptic pattern, any rainfall appears unlikely until at least Wednesday.

Temperatures will remain quite mild for this time of year with afternoon highs today through remaining about 10 to 20 degrees below average. Highs in the 60s and 70s will continue through Saturday, then afternoon temperatures will return to the 80s on Sunday. Near average temperatures will persist next week with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Wed May 20 2026

Widespread MVFR CIGS are present across southeast KS and currently impacting CNU. These MVFR conditions are likely continue through much of the period at CNU. MVFR conditions are likely to expand across south-central KS near 06Z with impacts at ICT and HUT. Confidence decreases across central KS for prevailing MVFR, therefore have withheld for now. Isolated to scattered showers are expected overnight with the greatest coverage across south-central and southeast KS. Showers should depart the area by mid-morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.