textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog through midday; more dense fog tonight

- Patchy drizzle continue through the afternoon

- Rain chances possible this evening, tonight, & Friday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 306 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

As of 3 AM, another night of widespread fog with areas of dense fog was ongoing. A midlevel trough was crossing the NM/TX border. In response to this shortwave trough, a weak low-level WAA pattern (veering wind profile) has been noted on the ICT VWP. This weak ascent combined with the moist boundary layer has resulted in drizzle being reported at multiple sites across the area. Anticipate this blend of dense fog and drizzle to continue through midday. Fortunately, temperatures are running 10-15 degrees warmer than Christmas morning (currently in the 40s) and freezing fog or slick spots are not a concern. Visibility should improve into the afternoon as the fog bank lifts to a low cloud base. Patchy drizzle is likely to continue within this low cloud base throughout the afternoon. Trended high temperatures cooler with the likelihood of overcast skies persisting much of the day. Highs are forecast to range from the mid 40s across central KS to the mid 50s across southeast KS. Precipitation is expected to transition from drizzle to rain showers across southeast KS late this afternoon into the evening as richer midlevel moisture arrives with the approach of the shortwave trough.

Transitioning into tonight, the initial shortwave trough will slide east of the forecast area with shortwave ridging moving overhead. The forecast area will remain influenced by the stubborn surface ridge axis which has been responsible for the prolonged period of low- clouds and fog. As such, another night of low clouds and fog is likely across much of the area. The most-dense fog is expected generally along and west of the Flint Hills. Should the current trends hold, another dense fog advisory will be needed for tonight into Friday morning.

The active weather pattern will continue into Friday and Saturday with multiple perturbations traversing the Plains. Available moisture remains quite meager and rain totals will be a few hundredths at best. Shortwave ridging will advance into the Plains by Sunday, allowing mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions to return. Temperatures will approach the 60 degree mark for most locations. These unseasonably warm stretch will be brief as a much stronger cold front arrives Monday, yielding temperatures closer to normal for this time of year (highs near 40 and lows in the 20s). In addition, another light QPF event is possible Monday into Tuesday. As the profile cools behind the front Monday night, a slight chance exists for snow, especially across northern KS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Widespread fog will continue across the entire area through at least midday. Expect VSBY to improve to MVFR or possibly VFR by midday. VSBY will return to IFR/LIFR after sunset tonight as another round of fog and low CIGS return. Rain showers are expected across southeast KS overnight and may impact CNU. Otherwise, winds will remain light and variable.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>071-082-083-091>094.