textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Below normal temperatures will continue through Thursday, with highs around 10 degrees below normal.

- Rain chances will start to increase Wednesday night and will remain through Thursday evening. Even though most locations will get wet through this time period, we are not looking for any organized severe storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Currently have a shortwave trough extending from southwest Ontario, through the Northern Plains and into the Central Great Basin. The two main vort lobes are situated over the Upper Mississippi Valley and over the Central Great Basin. Strong cold front that moved through last night is now located from central MO into southeast OK.

Unseasonably cold airmass is in place across the Plains with highs today around 25-30 degrees cooler than Monday's readings! This airmass will remain place for tonight with many locations across central and western KS falling into the upper 30s to low 40s. For tonight through most of Wed, upper trough will remain through the Great Basin with a more robust piece of energy starting to dig across the Northern Rockies on Wed night. Outside of a few rogue showers over far southeast KS tonight into Wed, the majority of the forecast area will remain dry through Wed. Stationary front will remain to our south and will start to wash out on Wed.

By Wed night, shortwave will continue to dig across the Northern Rockies to the Great Basin and at the same time, there is decent model agreement that some southern stream upper energy will start to lift out of southwest TX. This will place most of the region in an area of deep isentropic lift and mid level theta-e advection for Wed night through Thu. We will also remain in the right entrance region of an upper jet. This will result in fairly widespread showers and isolated storms starting Wed night and continuing on Thu. At this point it appears the most widespread activity will be Thu evening for the Flint Hills into southeast KS as the southern stream impulse lifts across the area.

We should see an overall decrease in precip on Fri as the southern stream wave lifts out and the main upper trough swings northeast across the Central Plains. However for Sat, yet another weak upper perturbation is set to swing across the forecast area, keeping at least some small precip chances in through Sat evening. Then another southern stream impulse is expected to once again lift out of southwest TX and bring widespread rain to the Southern Plains for Sat night through Sun night. The GFS is much quicker to close this low off and lift it north, spreading widespread precip into much of our forecast area. However, it appears to be the outlier at this time.

As far as temps go, below normal readings will remain for both Wed and Thu, as we get back closer to seasonal values for Fri into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

Showers and storms continue to exit Kansas to the east however MVFR cigs will most likely remain and impact KCNU/KICT with brief moments of IFR cigs for KCNU. A few showers or thunderstorms may redevelop this afternoon over southeast Kansas but should be widely scattered. VFR conditions are expected elsewhere with gusty northerly winds throughout the TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.