textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Heavy rain and flooding ongoing across far southeast Kansas this morning.

- Potential for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening across much of the area.

- Much warmer conditions and low storm chances anticipated for Tuesday and Wednesday.

- Thursday through Sunday appears to be quite active for the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

THIS MORNING...

The sharp, shortwave trough that brought active weather to the region this weekend is slowly departing the region this morning, and mid/upper ridging is beginning to build up over the southern CONUS. However, the side effect of this building ridge is a fairly stout region of mid-level WAA overspreading southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma and nosing into southeast Kansas and northeast Oklahoma. As a result, robust thunderstorm development has taken place across far southeast Kansas and surrounding areas. With PWATs over 1.7 inches and the expectation for training thunderstorms, very heavy rainfall and localized flooding are likely across this area. Additionally, MLCAPE over 2000 J/kg and effective shear around 30 knots could support strong to marginally severe storms capable of quarter size hail and wind gusts up to 60 mph. SPC mesoanalysis suggests this activity may have the opportunity to become surface-based due to very limited capping. Should this pan out, increasing 0-3km shear may support an outside chance of a tornado or two this morning. The big caveat to any severe potential will be a very messy storm mode which will likely keep a lid on storm intensity for the most part. These storms will linger through much of the morning hours across southeast Kansas. It's not out of the realm of possibility that some locations could see several inches of rain before storms eventually move off to the east.

THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Later today, a weak surface low is forecast to be located over the OK/TX Panhandles into southwest Kansas with a warm front draped from northwest to southeast across Kansas. This warm front could possibly be slightly reinforced with outflow from the complex of storms across southeast Kansas this morning. Regardless, robust thunderstorm development is anticipated across northwest Kansas early this afternoon thanks to the arrival of a subtle shortwave trough along with potent upslope flow advecting deep and rich moisture into the central/northern High Plains. Assuming storms develop, the environment would be ripe for severe storms with robust instability around 4000 J/kg and effective shear around 30-40 knots. The orientation of the baroclinic zone and shear vectors is a little awkward, but in general, it does support storm interactions and mergers with an eventual development of an MCS which will promote primarily a damaging wind threat. With that being said, some semi- discrete storms are possible across central Kansas which would open the door to large hail and maybe a tornado or two. The aforementioned warm front laid out across the state will delineate the instability gradient, and wherever this ends up being this afternoon and evening be where the MCS tracks across the state. Currently, short range guidance has the MCS tracking across central Kansas into the Flint Hills and eventually southeast Kansas by late tonight. There's some fairly high uncertainty about whether or not the MCS will track into south-central Kansas (thus impacting the Wichita metro). Trends in the eventual track of the MCS will need to be monitored throughout the day.

In addition to the potential of severe storms this afternoon through tonight, much warmer temperatures are expected for this afternoon, especially across south-central Kansas. Afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s along with dewpoints around 70 will support heat indices around 105 this afternoon.

TUESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...

Much hotter temperatures are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday across the central plains as the previously mentioned mid/upper ridge builds across the southern plains. Despite continued forecast warmer mid-level temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday, trends in the short term guidance have hinted that these mid-level temperatures may not be as warm as previously indicated. Given robust surface heating each afternoon along with the continued presence of fairly good low level moisture, the opportunity for storms appears to be present both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. For Tuesday, it appears as through a subtle shortwave trough will move into the High Plains right around peak diurnal heating which will be just enough to trigger widely scattered showers and storms across western Kansas. This activity looks like it will barely make it into portions of central Kansas Tuesday evening. If it does hold together, there is the potential for gusty winds as this activity dissipates. A weak frontal boundary will sag into the region on Wednesday as a more potential trough traverses the northern plains. The better synoptic lift will be located over the Upper Midwest and into the Missouri River Valley. However, there is an outside chance that convergence along the frontal boundary could be enough to trigger a storm or two across portions of central or south-central Kansas Wednesday afternoon and evening. Should a storm develop, the environment would support severe weather given ample instability and shear for this time of year.

With a series of deep layer troughs set to parade over the central and northern plains from the end of the work week and into the weekend, both a moderation in temperatures and an active few days are currently forecast. There are still a number of details to work out over the coming days, but the possibility of strong to severe storms does exist Thursday through Sunday. Continue to monitor the forecast over the next few days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Jun 8 2026

Another potentially active day is possible across the area today into tonight.

Around 12Z this morning, numerous showers and storms continued to fester across far southeast Kansas, and KCNU could see another hour or two of at least vicinity thunder. This activity will gradually shift south and east, and it should be out of the area by 15-16Z this morning. Meanwhile, widespread IFR to MVFR ceilings were overspreading the rest of the area this morning. Ceilings should gradually improve over the next few hours, and VFR conditions should resume area-wide by 18Z.

Confidence in the forecast for this afternoon through tonight remains fairly low. Short term guidance continues to show the potential of a robust line of storms developing across northwest Kansas and pushing across central Kansas and the Flint Hills this evening into tonight. Should this occur, there is the potential of 50 to 60-knot gusts across portions of central Kansas this evening. Stay tuned for updates to the forecast throughout the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-068-082-083-091>093. Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ095-096- 098>100.