textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Continued above average temperatures and mostly dry weather for most through at least early to mid next week.

- Low/spotty shower/thunderstorm chances possible late tonight into Thursday morning, and again late Thursday afternoon- evening. Most will likely remain dry though.

- Potential for increasing thunderstorm chances by late next Tuesday, although uncertainty is high.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 223 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...Can't rule out a few spotty high-based showers/sprinkles and perhaps a clap of thunder late tonight into Thursday morning, mainly along/northwest of a line extending from Hutchinson to Salina, within a zone of modest mid- level moisture and convergence. Very limited instability and meager forcing should preclude anything more than very light and/or trace amounts of moisture, and most locations will likely remain dry. Since activity will be very light/spotty, kept the forecast dry.

LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON-EVENING...Subtle mid-upper energy approaching a weak dryline circulation amidst slightly richer low- level moisture may be enough to breach a weak cap for isolated thunderstorm initiation late Thursday, mainly west of a line extending from Lincoln to Lyons to Kingman to Anthony. There is some CAM support for this scenario as well. Given the uncertainty and very spotty nature, kept the forecast dry for now.

LATE TUESDAY-THURSDAY...Per model consensus, deep western CONUS upper troughing finally ejects northeast across the northern CONUS early next week, which will attempt to drive a weak cold front south into Mid-America. This could support an increase in thunderstorm chances across the Kansas region, especially if the more bullish ECMWF solution verifies. However, there remains quite a bit of uncertainty with regard to the cold front's southern extent. The GFS and Canadian models keep this feature mainly north of the region and supports a continued mostly dry forecast. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

With anomalous upper level high pressure remaining anchored across the central and southern CONUS, above average temperatures look to continue through at least Tuesday or Wednesday of next week, with forecast high temperatures ranging from the 98-103 degree range across central and southeast KS. A change from the last several days will be slightly backed low-level flow supporting slightly richer low-level moisture streaming north into the region. This will inch afternoon through early evening heat indices closer to the 105 degree threshold for many locations, so will go ahead and expand the heat advisory to include all of central and southeast KS through Friday. This will also better match up with surrounding NWS forecast offices. Later shifts may need to consider extending through the weekend or early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 554 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours and likely beyond.

Upper ridging remains from the Tennessee Valley into the Southern Plains, with lee troughing across eastern CO/western KS. This setup will remain unchanged for Thu, which will bring gusty south winds to the region by early Thu afternoon. There is a small chance for a storm or two late Thu afternoon over central KS, but confidence is too low to mention in TAFs at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT Friday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.