textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A stray thunderstorms is possible this morning across north- central KS with additional nocturnal thunderstorm chances tonight through Friday night

- Heat indices above 100 may return this weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

As of 245 AM Wednesday morning, a highly amplified midlevel pattern remains across the CONUS with ridging across the western half and troughing across the east. The midlevel ridge axis extends from northern CO through southwest KS and into central OK. This places the forecast area on the northeastern periphery of the ridge axis. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across western and northern NE within a weak 700 mb WAA pattern. This WAA pattern may expand across portions of north-central KS after sunrise. Unfortunately, increasing 700 mb temperatures (12 to 14 C) across north-central and central KS may preclude thunderstorm development but a small chance exists nonetheless. Thanks to the frontal passage Tuesday, more- seasonable temperatures are in-store this afternoon with highs topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

The potential for nocturnal convection increases late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a strong low and midlevel WAA pattern emerges from western NE through portions of central and eastern KS. The prospects for any severe weather appear low with instability generally less than 1000 J/kg and effective shear less than 30 kt. High PW values around 2" will support heavy rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist through much of the day Thursday, especially across northeast KS where weak WAA will continue. Another complex of thunderstorm activity is appearing more and more likely late Thursday into Friday. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the central Plains Thursday evening into Thursday night. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along an inverted trough axis across eastern CO/western KS/western NE. As the evening progresses, convection is likely to grow upscale into an MCS and translate eastward within a 35-45 kt LLJ. The greatest storm chances will remain across portions of central and northeast KS. Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as the surface trough slides across southeast KS. The core of the midlevel ridge appears to slide back over the central Plains by next weekend. This will likely yield warmer temperatures, heat indices above 100 degrees, and minimal rain chances from Saturday afternoon into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the period. A stray shower is possible near SLN this morning but impacts are not expected. Easterly winds at 10-15 kt are expected through the period. Additional showers and storms are possible towards the end of the period near RSL/SLN.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.