textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Active pattern, with scattered showers/thunderstorms just about every day Wednesday through the weekend, mainly during the late morning hours through the evening hours. Locally heavy rainfall with isolated instances of flooding will be the primary threat.

- Seasonable temperatures expected through at least the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING...A weak/subtle upper low over Oklahoma combined with an uncapped and modestly unstable airmass may support a few isolated showers/thunderstorms through about 10 PM this evening over southern KS, mainly south of Highway 54. Strong or severe storms are not expected, although seasonably rich precipitable waters and slow storm motions may support locally heavy rainfall.

WEDNESDAY--SUNDAY:

This will be an unsettled weather pattern, with chances for scattered showers/thunderstorms just about every day from the late morning hours through the evening hours. The culprits will be a handful of slow-moving upper lows amidst above average precipitable waters and uncapped thermal profiles. Wednesday and Thursday may have the greatest coverage of storms given the upper forcing, although Saturday-Sunday have potential to have decent coverage as well. The overall setup of relatively weak shear with modest instability and poor mid-level lapse rates should preclude severe weather, although a slight uptick in deep layer shear Friday- Saturday may support an isolated low-end severe risk those days. Additionally, the rich precipitable waters combined with slow storm motions will promote locally heavy rainfall and isolated flooding concerns.

TEMPERATURES:

Fairly uniform temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s are expected each day through the next 7 days, with overnight lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. These values are very close to normal for this time of year. Dewpoints climbing through the 60s will support afternoon heat indices a few degrees higher than afternoon temperatures.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. Patchy fog cannot be entirely ruled out across southeast KS but confidence in impacts at CNU are too low for introduction. Winds will remain from the southeast around 10 kt at all sites. Shower and thunderstorms will increase from south to north during the evening and overnight. To account for this, a PROB30 mention has been added at GBD, HUT, and ICT.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.