textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A handful of strong to severe thunderstorms with nickel to quarter sized hail possible this evening into tonight, primarily across southern KS.

- Widespread rain begins this evening and lasts through Saturday. Locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding concerns, especially in southeast KS.

- Warm and dry conditions resume Sunday and last through next week. Extreme fire danger is expected across central KS on Tuesday, with very high fire danger expected across the remainder of the area Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis early this afternoon depict a lifting mid/upper trough situated over the Desert Southwest with the associated speed max entering the Southern Rockies. Surface analysis indicates a warm/stationary front stretching southeast from the TX Panhandle into the Red River Valley.

The warm front is progged to track north/northeast through the evening and overnight hours as mid/upper forcing moves into the Southern Plains. Isentropic ascent ahead of this feature will work in concert with low-level moisture transport to produce widespread elevated showers across south central and southeast KS late tonight into Saturday morning. Additionally, RAP/NAM point soundings across south central KS continue to indicate elevated instability in the 500-1000 J/kg range this evening and tonight, which will support a few embedded thunderstorms. Per the prior discussion, elevated hodographs indicate slight veering and 30-40 kts of effective shear which will support the potential for nickel to even quarter sized hail this evening and tonight, primarily across southern KS.

Perhaps the biggest story of this evening heading into Saturday will be the arrival of an anomalously-moist airmass. NAEFS/ENS ensembles highlight PWs in the 1-1.25" range which will be very near (or even exceed) climatological maxes for this time of year. This will allow for efficient rainfall as showers and storms make their way through the region, especially across southeast KS where models are in best agreement for localized flooding concerns as seen in the EFI. HREF probabilities of at least an inch of rain through Saturday sit at 70- 90% along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike with areas primarily along/east of I-135 in the 50-75% range. Probabilities for at least 2 inches of rain lie in the 40-70% in a line from roughly Winfield to Iola with even higher probabilities to the east. Rain will come to an end from west to east Saturday evening into early Sunday morning as mid/upper forcing shifts eastward.

Dry weather will resume Sunday as the upper ridge slides eastward over the Plains. Increasing thicknesses will allow for mild temperatures (highs in the 60s and 70s) throughout the area through at least mid week. A mid/upper wave may try to bring a cold front through the area on Thursday which would allow for the return of more seasonable temperatures to end the week, but uncertainty is high at this time range.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1115 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to overspread the area beginning this evening and lasting through the end of the TAF period.

Currently, VFR conditions and light easterly winds are dominating much of the area late this morning. These conditions will continue though much of the afternoon; however, a few showers are expected to begin developing across Oklahoma and southern Kansas by early this evening.

Coverage in showers will continue expanding tonight, and a few embedded thunderstorms are possible as well across portions of southern and southeast Kansas. There's a brief window tonight for some of these storms to potentially produce around nickel to quarter-sized hail, but the likelihood of this is still relatively low. The primary impact from these widespread showers will be IFR to LIFR cigs along with reduced visibility, especially in pockets of heavier rainfall. It's unlikely much of the area will see rain chances end until late Saturday evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 109 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A combination of warm temperatures, low RH values, and windy conditions are expected to result in extreme fire danger in central KS on Tuesday. Very high fire danger is expected for the remainder of the area on Tuesday, then again for the entire area on Wednesday and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.