textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances late this afternoon and evening over southern and southeast KS, and again late Wednesday over southeast KS. Severe weather possible.

- Hot and windy Wednesday, triple digit heat indices likely.

- Potential for additional thunderstorms late Wednesday night through at least midday Thursday over mainly south-central and southeast KS. Lower-end severe threat along with heavy rainfall possible.

- Cool down Thursday, warming back up this weekend.

- Periodic shower/storm chances this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...A weak surface trough approaching from the north amidst an uncapped and unstable airmass should be enough to spark a few isolated thunderstorms after about 4 PM and persisting through mid to late evening over mainly south-central and southeast Kansas (generally south of Highway 50). Given the lack of upper forcing and weak low-level forcing, activity should be fairly isolated, so most locations should remain thunderstorm-free. However, any storm that develops will have the potential to be severe given modest to strong instability combined with rather strong deep layer shear (45-55 kts) for June standards, including a strong directional component to the shear. Consequently, a few supercells are possible capable of golfball hail or larger and 60+ mph winds.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Another round of isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms is expected late Wednesday, especially east- southeast of the KS Turnpike, as a strong cold front approaches from the northwest. Thinking coverage will increase with east- northeastward extent closer to better forcing. Combination of strong/fat instability and 35-45 kts of deep layer shear will support a continued severe thunderstorm threat, with large hail and damaging winds the primary risks, along with pockets of heavy rainfall. Thinking the severe risk should end by 11 PM or so.

LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT--THURSDAY...Strengthening 800-600mb warm advection and moisture transport should support at least isolated to widely scattered shower/thunderstorm redevelopment late Wednesday night and persisting through at least early afternoon Thursday, mainly south of a Great Bend--McPherson--Emporia line. Despite most unstable parcels being rather elevated (above 800-700mb), this could be a sneaky severe weather and heavy rainfall/flooding event, given the potential for decent lift amidst a favorable combination of elevated instability and deep layer shear. Additionally, a backbuilding MCS signal could also favor pockets of heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns.

THIS WEEKEND...The latest guidance continues to favor additional periodic thunderstorm chances this weekend, possibly as early as Friday night, with better chances Saturday through Sunday night. The culprits will be low-amplitude shortwave energy approaching from the west in concert with a strengthening frontal zone across Mid- America. Strong buoyancy coupled with adequate shear should support at least an isolated severe weather threat, along with heavy rainfall. Uncertainty is high surrounding forecast specifics for this period, stay tuned for later updates.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Deepening Central and Northern Plains low pressure will support stout/gusty south-southwest winds later tonight through much of Wednesday, strongest generally along/east of the Flint Hills Wednesday morning through early afternoon. Consequently, hoisted a wind advisory for Chase--Greenwood--Elk counties on east.

The hottest day of the next 7 will likely be tomorrow (Wednesday), as the low-level thermal ridge develops ahead of an approaching cold front. Thinking 90s to mid 100s are probable, warmest over south- central KS. Wichita is forecast to hit 101 degrees, which would be the first 100-degree day since August 8, 2025. Heat indices across the area will be 100-105 degrees, mostly just shy of advisory criteria.

In contrast, Thursday could very well be the coolest day of the next 7 due to the potential for widespread clouds and at least scattered showers/thunderstorms across the region. For now ran with upper 70s to low 80s for daytime highs, although some guidance keeps the region in the low-mid 70s.

Otherwise a return to near to above average temperatures is expected Friday through the weekend ahead of our next cold front, with a return to near to below average temperatures early to mid next week in wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions should prevail across the area however a few thunderstorms could redevelop this afternoon over southeast Kansas and impact KCNU. Winds will become southerly ahead of a strong cold front which will cross the region tomorrow. Winds will gust in the 30 knot range late in the TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ053- 070>072-094>096.