textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered strong to severe storms likely this afternoon into tonight mainly for areas along and east of I-135. All hazards will be possible with large hail up to 2 inches, damaging winds up to 70 mph, and potentially a couple tornadoes. Heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding.

- Mostly dry conditions are expected on Friday with additional storm chances returning on Saturday and Sunday. Strong to severe storms will be possible both days. Stay tuned for forecast updates!

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Currently, there is an upper shortwave trough over Alberta stretching into the Northern Rockies with additional troughing extending from the Northern Plains into the Central Rockies. At the surface, a low is over southern Manitoba with a cold front draped down through MN/IA/NE/KS connecting to another low in central/southern KS. A dryline extends from the southern KS low into western TX. The pressure gradient has increased across the area resulting in breezy/gusty winds in eastern KS, leading to efficient moisture advection and dewpoints in the 60s.

As we continue to move into later this afternoon and tonight, the cold front will continue to push east/southeast through KS. Storm initiation is expected along and east of the cold front around 4PM as convergence and low-level lift increases. Along and east of I- 135, instability will be between 2500-3000 J/kg with 40-50 kts of effective shear, and steep mid-level lapse rates. Initial storm development will be more discrete which will support large hail with sizes up to 2 inches along with damaging wind gusts. While storms will likely grow upscale quickly into a line of storms especially closer to central KS given the bulk shear vector is oriented parallel to the front, the primary threat will gradually transition this evening to damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. For areas farther south near the KS/OK border, the LLJ will continue to increase into this evening. At the same time, low-level wind shear will also increase as well as 0-3km SRH with values over 300 m2/s2. This will support a couple tornadoes in south-central KS into the Flint Hills. Given this risk, a Tornado Watch has been issued for south-central and portions of central and southeast KS. Between 9-11PM, convection is expected to be all linear as the storms to continue to push into southeast KS, which will decrease the hail and tornado threat with the primary threat becoming damaging winds and heavy rainfall. After midnight, the severe threat will decrease with showers and storms gradually exiting southeast KS into early Friday morning.

After a lull in showers and storms on Friday, another round of strong to severe storms will be possible on Saturday and Sunday as another upper trough moves into the southwestern CONUS. For Saturday, a shortwave will move into the Central Plains, initiating storms in western KS that are progged to move eastward in the afternoon into the nighttime hours. With diurnal heating, instability will increase to 1500-2000 J/kg with steep mid-level lapse rates and decent effective shear. This will support damaging wind gusts and potentially large hail. A couple brief tornadoes cannot be completely ruled out at this time. Depending on how activity evolves on Saturday, this may affect Sunday's severe weather potential. Model guidance continues to hint at a deeper shortwave moving into the area with the 500 mb jet nosing into central KS by Sunday afternoon. At the surface, southerly winds will aid in dewpoints returning to the 60s; however, in our area there doesn't seem to be a defined surface boundary on Sunday afternoon though farther south/southwest a dryline looks to setup in parts of southwest KS into western TX. Given this is still a few days out, forecast details will continue to be refined, stay tuned!

As we move into early next week, a break in active weather is expected with mild temperatures in the 70s. Shower and storm chances may return to the forecast mid to late in the work week, though its a bit far out to dive into the details of this activity. Continue to check back for forecast updates.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The cold front has moved through portions of central KS shifting winds to northwesterly at RSL, GBD, SLN, and HUT. The front will continue to push southeast/east through the area which will shift winds at ICT to northerly around 03z and CNU around 10z.

Further storm development is not anticipated to affect terminal sites in central and south-central KS. As storms continue to progress east/southeast along or ahead of the cold front, CNU will likely see storms between 02-06z. After 06z, vicinity showers are possible with this activity expected to move out of the area early Friday morning.

Northeasterly winds will increase to around 10 kts between 14-16z with winds expected to continue shifting to easterly after 20z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.