textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Intense line of storms likely on Tuesday afternoon-night; however low confidence on timing and location.

- Periodic thunderstorm chances late Wednesday night through Friday could present a heavy rain and flooding threat.

- Much warmer conditions this weekend. Heat and humidity could present some concerns during the afternoon hours.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

TODAY AND TONIGHT...

Early this afternoon, a psuedo-post frontal airmass continues to be dominant across the forecast area with temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s and widespread low cloud cover. It's possible that locations that see breaks in the clouds could see temperatures rise into the 80s by later this afternoon, but a majority of the area will likely only see highs in the 70s today. With a relatively dry and cool airmass sprawled out across the region, much of the thunderstorm activity today will be limited to the High Plains, and no nighttime/overnight MCS is forecast for tonight! With northeast to easterly flow expected to continue through tonight continuing to reinforce this cool and dry airmass, lows will be in the upper 50s to low 60s across the forecast area.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

The warm, soupy, humid airmass will return as early as late Tuesday morning as dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s surge northward. This will support a marked increase in instability across the region. A number of solutions are being presented from the short term guidance this morning, and they all have some support which is making the forecast over the next 36-48 hours extremely tricky and uncertain.

Some of the short term guidance shows an organized MCS developing across southern and central Nebraska during the early morning hours on Tuesday and diving southward into Kansas during the afternoon hours. Others show disorganized convection developing along the baroclinic zone lifting northward across the area during the late morning and afternoon hours followed by an intense MCS moving off the High Plains and pushing across the forecast area late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. Either way, the likelihood of an intense MCS impacting at least a portion of the forecast area is rather high, but the exact timing and location is still in question. Like mentioned previously, the environment, regardless of the time of day, will be very supportive of an intense MCS with bowing segments and perhaps a couple brief QLCS tornadoes. Raw model output from various CAMs explicitly show 70-90 mph wind gusts as this MCS traverses across the area. This is generally supported by 2000-4000 J/kg of SBCAPE, 0-6 km shear of at least 50 knots, and favorable low- level instability and shear regardless of the time of day. Storm chances should gradually end from north to south early Wednesday morning. In the wake of this MCS, a more stable airmass is likely to settle in; however, there are hints that some instability could sneak back northward by late Wednesday evening, and another MCS may attempt to track along the instability gradient along the KS/OK border late Wednesday night into Thursday morning.

THURSDAY AND BEYOND..

Uncertainty in the forecast only increases heading into Thursday and Friday, although the upper patterns remains supportive of active weather through the end of the work week. The latest run of global mid range models seems to be zeroing in on storms most likely occurring Thursday night into Friday morning with the potential of lingering showers and storms Friday afternoon. However, the exact evolution of this activity, including exact timing and location, is still in question. Given all of the recent rainfall, the most obvious threat will be river flooding and flash flooding. Guidance continues to show a very moist airmass with PWATs above 1.8" across much of the area which will likely lead to very high rainfall rates with any showers and storms that develop Thursday and Friday.

Heading into the weekend, much of the persistent upper flow that has been driving this very active stretch is forecast to shift northward as a broad upper ridge builds across the southern and southeast CONUS. Guidance this far out is likely a little on the hot side in regards to temperatures, especially given how much residual moisture will likely linger from all of the rainfall across the area. That being said, even afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s could present heat concerns if dewpoints climb into the mid to upper 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 633 PM CDT Mon Jun 22 2026

Generally light, easterly winds are expected overnight with a few low clouds across the area. As convection across western Kansas shifts east and diminishes, some broken ceilings above 20k/ft will overspread the region after 06Z. Shortly after 12Z, ceilings will fall close to MVFR levels. This should be brief before skies become more SCT with southeasterly winds under 10 knots persisting through the afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.