textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm threat across southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening. Another round of severe storms is possible on Friday afternoon and evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, brief cool down for the weekend.

- A very high grassland fire danger for areas west of I-135 on Thursday and Friday afternoon. A very high grassland fire danger may return for areas west of I-135 Sunday through Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An elongated mid/upper trough stretched from South Dakota SSW over the Rockies into the Southwest early this morning. This trough is progged to translate eastward emerging over the Plains states today. Ahead of this feature, a dryline across the Flint Hills will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms. The warm sector is progged to be weakly capped with storm development possible by early-mid afternoon. Deep-layer shear vectors are progged to be in a similar orientation to the boundary leading to a messy storm mode but we could see a couple of supercells with the initial development as we remain within an enhanced southwest mid/upper flow regime. Any discrete storms would be capable of producing large/very large hail and a tornado before we start to see more clustering toward evening. The activity is expected to be east/southeast of the area by 8-9 pm.

As the shortwave trough translates eastward away from the area, we will see mid/upper ridging build over the central CONUS on Thursday resulting in mild an dry conditions. Afternoon highs are expected to climb into the 80s areawide.

A vigorous mid/upper trough will move out of the Northern Intermountain Region and into the Rockies late in the day on Friday. Ahead of this system, a nocturnal LLJ is expected to nose into south central KS early on Friday but it looks like the cap will preclude early morning convection. A cold front will bisect Kansas as we move into the early afternoon hours becoming a focus for showers and storms by mid- afternoon as the cap weakens. Similar to Wed, we see deep layer shear vectors in a similar orientation to the cold front leading to another messy storm mode situation. A line of storms capable of damaging winds and large hail is favored as the front races south and east through the evening hours. Mid-lvl waa/isentropic upglide may lead to some post-frontal thunderstorms capable of large hail and heavy rain as we move into the early evening hours. The activity is expected to move south and east of the area by around midnight.

Sat-Tue...A stable post-frontal regime is anticipated across the area as we move into Saturday with seasonably cool air expected. Afternoon highs are expected to top out around 60 for most areas. As high pressure settles over the area Sat night into early Sun we could see some areas of frost develop as low temperatures fall into the 30s. A mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward into the central CONUS Sun-Tue with rising heights/increasing thickness supporting rising temperatures across the area. Above normal temperatures are expected to return on Monday with highs on Tuesday reaching the 80s in central KS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Showers and storms have moved out of the area with VFR conditions prevailing. Southerly winds will continue to gust up to 30 kts for the next few hours until around 09z. Low clouds are likely to settle in to CNU early this morning, reducing ceilings down to MVFR. Winds will pick up again late this morning into the afternoon with winds shifting to westerly in central KS. Showers and storms are possible again this afternoon and into the evening mainly in southeast KS. Continued the PROB30 for CNU and extended it until 02z with this issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 227 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Breezy southerly winds will return to central Kansas on Thursday and especially on Friday while very dry air will also lingers. Minimum afternoon relative humidity is expected to be in the teens on Thursday while rising into the 25-30 percent range on Friday, although gusty southwest winds will increase on Friday. A very high grassland fire danger will develop for areas west of I-135 on both Thursday and Friday during the afternoon hours.

A very high grassland fire danger may return early next week for areas west of I-135.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.