textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditional severe risk this evening over Central and parts of South Central KS.

- Numerous storms likely across the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas Thursday afternoon and evening.

- A brief break is forecast for Friday, but higher storm chances return Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

A mid/upper trough remains over the Northern Plains today while a couple of more subtle features evident on Water Vapor imagery were rotating north and northeast of the area. At the surface, a frontal boundary was bisecting Central Kansas while low level flow was veered ahead of the front across the area. We see some subtle 12-hr height rises over the Central Plains as we move through the day as we remain on the southern periphery of the stronger belt of mid-level flow. We are still expecting isolated thunderstorms to develop along the frontal boundary and as the LLJ ramps up this evening we could see some storms begin to fill in along the front from northeast to southwest but a capping inversion may build into southern Kansas limiting storm coverage. Steep lapse rates/moderate to extreme buoyancy and deep layer shear around 30 knots will support some organized severe storms with large/very large hail, 70+ mph wind gusts, and maybe a brief tornado or two as the LLJ ramps up in the early evening hours. We continue to see a very moist column with PWATs progged to rise to near 2 inches along/ahead of the frontal zone leading to efficient rain with high rainfall rates and potential flooding concerns. Once again, storms may struggle to get organized over south central KS due to capping concerns. The focus for storms tonight is expected to shift north and east of the area as the frontal boundary gradually shifts over the area into southeast KS early on Thu.

The front over southeast KS may become a focus for deep moist convection across southeast Kansas on Thursday afternoon/early evening before the focus shifts south and east of the area early in the evening (or perhaps sooner). The cap may erode by 19/20Z across the Flint Hills with a similar environment as today setting the stage for another round of severe storms. The current thinking is that linear mode will be favored with deep layer shear vectors running parallel to the boundary and veered low level flow. We continue to be in a high PWAT airmass with saturated soils in southeast KS so heavy rain would likely result in a continuation or additional flooding along the Neosho river.

Fri-Sat...We expect a break in the action on Friday as a stable post- frontal regime builds over the area with seasonable temperatures anticipated. This break may be short-lived as low level southerly flow on the backside of the sfc high will begin to advect low level moisture northward once again. A robust LLJ is progged to develop Fri night with decent mid-level waa and we could see some storms propagating eastward off the high plains or some elevated storms redeveloping through the night and possibly backbuilding during the day on Saturday. This could have implications on the potential for severe weather on Sat with a large amount of uncertainty at this time. A southward advancing cold front could still become a focus for severe storms on Saturday PM but there remains some questions on how Fri night/early Sat impacts this scenario.

Showers and storms may linger across the area on Sunday as we remain in a mean large-scale trough over the central CONUS but confidence in the details remains low as the frontal boundary may be forced further south of the area leading to a stable post-frontal regime over the Central Plains. Another shortwave wave trough may emerge from the Rockies early in the week bringing another round of showers and storms to the area. This will eventually lead to northwest flow in the Tue-Wed periods as the mid/upper ridge amplifies over the Rockies leading to mostly dry weather conditions and seasonable temperatures toward the middle of the week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. Gusty south winds currently observed across the area will turn to the north this afternoon behind a stalling frontal boundary in central KS. We'll see a return of strong south winds overnight before another front passes through the area Thursday morning which will turn winds out of the north once again. LLWS is forecast for all sites overnight prior to 13Z.

We continue to see the chance for showers and thunderstorms impacting portions of south central and eastern KS later this afternoon and evening. Maintained the PROB30 group at ICT to account for this, but confidence is too low for a mention at CNU for this cycle. Strong winds and large hail will be the primary threats with the strongest activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067-068-082- 083-091-092.