textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing shower and storm chances for Tuesday afternoon and especially Tuesday night. A few severe storms will be possible along with high rainfall rates and flooding.

- A more impressive round of heavy rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike having the highest flooding potential.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Currently have a sharp upper trough extending from the Great Basin down into Southern CA with upper ridging centered over the TX Gulf Coast. At the surface, cold front extends from Northern IA down through southern Nebraska and into far NW KS with a surface trough just ahead of the front.

There will be a chance early this evening for a few showers and storms to develop across central KS near the surface trough as it sags south. This will also be in an area of enhanced mid level theta- e advection. This activity will quickly lift off to the northeast this evening.

By Tue afternoon, cold front is expected to stretch generally between I-70 and Highway 50 with a surface low from southeast CO into southwest KS. Higher resolution models are pushing the front further south compared to some of the others with confidence increasing in the faster solutions. Not only would this have an impact on daytime convection, but also with temps. So there's a chance highs on Tue could be quite a bit cooler than most of the guidance, especially over central KS. Still looking for storms to develop late Tue afternoon where surface convergence will be maximized, which looks to be over west/central KS, closer to the triple point. After sunset, storms will then expand in coverage as low level jet ramps-up. Strong upper jet is also expected to stretch from northern NM through NW KS and into the Upper Mississippi Valley with the right entrance region of this jet moving towards the area Tue night. With strong upper jet near the area, there will be enough deep layer shear for some hail, especially the further north storms can develop. With PW values over 200% of normal starting Tue evening, high rainfall rates and potential flooding will also be possible with any of the stronger activity.

There remains some uncertainty with cold front location by Wed afternoon with CAMS pushing it further south compared to other guidance. Current thinking is that by 18z Wed, it will stretch southeast of the KS Turnpike with best chance for surface convection mainly only affecting southeast KS. While some scattered showers and storms will be possible during the day Wed, we are expecting an increase in storms and heavy rain Wed night into Thu morning as deep upper low tracks from the Four Corners region into eastern CO. This will allow the right entrance region of upper jet and strong upper diffluence to move into the area. In addition, extremely high PW airmass will remain in place along with nearly stationary boundary. This will lead to a high likelyhood of heavy rainfall with the stronger showers and storms. At this point it looks like areas southeast of the KS Turnpike will have the higher chances for flooding Wed night into Thu morning, due to them being closer to the boundary.

Upper wave will quickly get sheared out on Thu as another upper impulse tracks out of the Northern Plains and into the Mid Mississippi Valley. This will push the better precip chances south of the area by Thu evening. Strong surface high pressure will quickly move-in Fri and slide east for Sat, keeping things dry and allowing for comfortable temps through the weekend.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR is expected to prevail tonight with breezy early evening winds slowly subsiding. An approaching cold front may arrive earlier along the I-70 corridor and the wind shift could occur in the 05-07Z timeframe in the KRSL area and in the 09-11Z timeframe at KSLN and KGBD. This front may continue to move slowly southward or become stationary at times during the day on Tuesday while becoming a focus for scattered late day storms. Confidence in the timing of storms remains somewhat low and no mention in area TAFs at this time as higher probabilities are expected to arrive as we move into the evening hours or toward the end of the TAF period.

Looking ahead to Tuesday evening and Tuesday night...reduced flight categories are expected to become widespread with showers and thunderstorms expected to increase in coverage across much of the area. A strong cold front will also shift winds to the north while ushering in much cooler air.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.