textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A wide range of temperatures are expected from north to south over the area on Tuesday as a warm front bisects southern Kansas.

- Chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Some storms may be strong to marginally severe.

- Additional chances for storms both Thursday and Friday. Strong to severe storms are possible with activity as well.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Shallow cold air continues to remain entrenched across much of the area late this morning with low clouds and continued low level easterly/northeasterly flow. A shortwave trough is progged to move over the Central Great Basin area approaching the Rockies late in the period today. This will result in sfc pressure falls over the high plains in eastern Colorado which will allow southeasterly flow to return to the Central Plains region as we move through the day. We could see some elevated showers and perhaps an isolated storm or two tonight (mainly after midnight over southeast KS) as the LLJ noses into southern Kansas. Point soundings show a strong cap in place with a warm nose in the H8-H7 layer, likely precluding deep moist convection across the forecast area. Considerable moisture beneath the inversion could result in drizzle/light rain showers while elevated parcels will likely remain capped to deep moist convection.

Low pressure at the sfc is progged to developed eastward along the KS and OK state line allowing a warm front to meander into southern KS on Tue. We expect a very sharp temperature gradient to impact southern KS where highs in the 70s may materialize south of the warm front while areas north of the front may struggle to climb out of the 40s. Temperatures were trended much lower as the higher resolution guidance is keeping the shallow cool air locked in over much of the area although far southern Kansas and parts of southeast Kansas may rise into the upper 60s/lower 70s during the day. Maintained some mid pops through the day into Tue night although stout capping continues to be present. As the pv anomaly approaches late Tue into early Wed we may see a period of showers and storms impact much of the area. Elevated CAPE of 500-700+ J/KG with steep mid lvl lapse rates may allow for some strong or marginally severe storms at times, especially across southeast KS. As the previous forecast noted, showers and storms are expected to progress eastward as we move through the day on Wed, gradually exiting toward the end of the day. With precipitation ending late in the day and little to scour out the low level moisture, some fog may be possible across much of the area on Wed night.

Thu-Fri...Another vigorous trough is progged to build into the Central Great Basin area as we move through the day on Thursday. This will allow a sfc low to deepen over the high plains of eastern Colorado, resulting in a tight pressure gradient over the Central Plains. Breezy south winds will develop downstream, allowing low level moisture to advect northward through the day on Thursday. A developing LLJ is progged to nose into south central Kansas Thursday night with some elevated showers and thunderstorms possible. Steep mid-lvl lapse rates with some elevated cape of 500-1000 J/KG may support some hailers with any elevated storms that develop. We could see another round of showers and storms on Friday as the cold front surges south and east across the area with the highest probabilities weighted across southeast Kansas through Friday night before the activity shifts south and east away from the area.

Sat-Mon...A progressive zonal flow is progged to develop over the area as the trough over the Great Basin area becomes cutoff over the Baja area and the trough over the Northern Plains shears eastward over the weekend. Cooler air is progged to settle over the area on Sat in the wake of a cold front while moderating temperatures can be expected Sun-Mon with above normal highs anticipated through the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Challenging TAF forecast, with widespread IFR to LIFR conditions expected for most locations the next 24 hours.

Ceilings may gradually improve to high IFR or even low MVFR this afternoon into the early evening, before strengthening low-level moisture advection brings visibilities and ceilings back down in -DZ and BR. LIFR conditions are definitely possible areawide later tonight and Tuesday given the sharpening strong frontal zone near the KS/OK border, but kept with IFR for now given confidence.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1246 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Warm and breezy conditions will result in a very high fire danger over parts of central Kansas both Thursday and Friday afternoon. However, rainfall is expected to preclude more widespread fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.