textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong/severe storms could affect parts of central Kansas tonight and again on Wednesday

- Heat will continue to persist over the region with the hottest temperatures/higher heat indices expected for Friday through upcoming weekend

- Next chances for storms looks to affect the region for Saturday night into Sunday

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current water vapor satellite/ALPW Polar satellite analysis was showing a plume of deeper moisture over New Mexico/southwest Texas streaming northward into western/central Kansas. This axis of moisture sparked off morning/afternoon high based showers/storms with activity continuing to fester. Meanwhile a stationary surface boundary was situated from southwest Kansas into south central Nebraska. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along the this stalled out boundary later this afternoon/evening, then spread slowly northeast possibly affecting parts of central Kansas by late evening. Wind shear will be on the marginal side over central Kansas but decent instability and inverted V-sounding supports severe downburst winds as the primary risk. A repeat performance looks to unfold again for Wednesday evening with storms developing in western Kansas, and possibly affecting parts of central Kansas. Dry weather is slated for Thursday.

Heading into Friday-Saturday, hotter temperatures and high humidity levels will result in heat indices of 100 to 105 especially for southeast Kansas. Models show a upper level wave moving across Nebraska Saturday night which will bring the next chance of storms to the region. The storms could linger into Sunday morning as they track slowly southeast. The forecast gets a little more uncertain with the pattern for Sunday night into early next week, as some models are suggesting a upper level low loitering over the region with more chances of showers/storms. This scenario would support slightly cooler temperatures with clouds and precipitation over the region.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Thunderstorm chances are expected increase for mainly RSL and GBD this evening, and possibly SLN and HUT as well. Mainly after 03-04z, and through 07-09z. Cannot completely rule out activity getting near ICT, but thinking chances are low. Primary hazards will be strong wind gusts, small hail, and locally heavy rain. Otherwise, ended up eliminating low-level wind shear for the evening and overnight hours from the 00z TAFs, as it looks rather marginal.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.