textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower and thunderstorms are expected to increase from the middle of the week through at least Friday night or Saturday.

- Warmer today with seasonable temperatures persisting through the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The surface ridge continues to linger across southeast Kansas where some fog formation is likely through the early morning hours. Meanwhile, southerly low level flow will begin to increase as the sfc ridge moves north and east of the area as we move through the day. We remain under the influence of a mid/upper level ridge which should bring mostly sunny and warm conditions to the region this afternoon. Any storm activity is expected to remain well west over the Central High Plains in the vicinity of sfc trough. Dry conditions are expected to continue tonight while low level southerly flow gradually advects Gulf moisture northward during the predawn hours. We may see some stratus develop as the richer low level moisture arrives early on Tuesday. It will be hard to rule out some isolated shower activity during the day on Tuesday as the airmass is progged to remain uncapped, but in the absence of any appreciable large-scale forcing for ascent, isolated showers or storms should be short-lived with most locations remaining dry.

By Tuesday night, it will be hard to rule out isolated or widely scattered showers as we continue to remain uncapped in a very moist airmass with PWATs progged to climb to around 1.3 inches or around the 75th percentile for late May as low level moisture continues being advected northward into the area.

Wed-Thu...A shortwave trough over the Southern High Plains is progged to lift northward over the area on Wednesday bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms to much of the area. Some timing differences remain between the various models in how quickly this trough lifts over the area leading to some uncertainty in onset of precipitation. Strong or severe storms appear unlikely as we continue to see weak mid-level lapse rates, limiting instability but we remain in a moist airmass with high PWATs and increasing warm cloud depths progged through the night bringing the potential for some pockets of heavy rain. The slow moving trough may begin to slowly fill on Thu while meandering over the area bringing continued chances for diurnally driven showers with embedded thunderstorms. The higher probabilities are expected to remain along and east of I- 135 on Thursday afternoon and Thursday night where the better low level moisture is progged to reside.

Fri-Sun...Daily rain chances may linger into Friday and perhaps Saturday, before a vigorous mid/upper trough over the Great Lakes area drives a frontal boundary over the area ushering in a drier more stable airmass.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 606 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light winds this morning will become breezy in central KS while remaining light across southeast Kansas. VFR is anticipated through the period. Patchy fog may impact low-lying areas early this morning but is expected to quickly mix out and is currently not impacting any of the terminals. Winds will diminish this evening remaining light and southerly through the night.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.