textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms are likely late Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night.

- Slight rain chances are possible Wednesday night and Thursday night with the main chances during the overnight hours.

- Near normal to slightly above normal temperatures are expected through Friday with triple digit heat likely returning Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

An upper trough is currently over the northeastern CONUS into portions of the eastern CONUS. Upper ridging continues over the Plains into the western CONUS, keeping our area in northwesterly flow aloft. A shortwave trough is sliding across southern Saskatchewan, pushing a cold front into portions of the Northern Plains. Widely scattered showers are ongoing in far southeast KS and eastern Oklahoma where an area of 850-700 mb WAA continues. As we move into tonight and Tuesday morning, mostly dry conditions are expected before a slight chance of rain is possible to clip central KS on Tuesday morning. Better chances will remain in northwestern and western Kansas. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 60s to around 70.

For Tuesday, high temperatures will once again rise into the low to mid 90s across our area. As we move towards late Tuesday afternoon and night, rain chances will increase as the deeper shortwave trough moves into the Upper Mississippi Valley, pushing the aforementioned weak cold front farther south into Nebraska. Additional storm development is expected off the High Plains and to propagate east/southeast into Kansas. Strong to severe storms are likely with this activity given sufficient instability, around 25-30 kts of effective shear, and decent DCAPE values. The main hazards with the strongest activity will be damaging wind gusts, hail up to quarter size, and locally heavy rainfall. Activity may linger into the overnight hours with chances decreasing towards Wednesday morning.

For Wednesday and Thursday, the upper air pattern will generally remain unchanged with upper ridging over the western CONUS and the Rockies, keeping the Plains in northwesterly flow aloft. This will allow additional embedded shortwaves to eject out into the region, which will result in slight rain chances both Wednesday and Thursday night. The better chances will remain off to our west, though there is a 20% chance for activity to clip our western fringes. For temperatures, highs are anticipated to be near normal with values in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Low temperatures are forecast to be in the mid to upper 60s Wednesday and Thursday night.

For Friday and beyond, the upper ridge axis is progged to shift east towards the Plains which will result in a warming trend starting Friday into the weekend. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 90s across the area on Friday before a return to triple digit heat on Saturday and Sunday. Low temperatures will warm a bit with values in the low to mid 70s. Mostly dry conditions are expected into the weekend with the next chance for rain possible on Sunday night into Monday as a deeper shortwave trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Light easterly winds and VFR will prevail through much of the overnight hours as some increase in mid clouds is anticipated as we move through the night and into the morning hours on Tuesday. There is some concern that we could see some stratus develop as low level moisture advects into the area, but due to increasing mid-level clouds, confidence remains low at this time. Isolated or widely scattered showers and storms may develop across the high plains and drift eastward on Tuesday but confidence in placement and timing remains fairly low at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.