textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms this afternoon into the early evening, especially along/east of the Flint Hills.

- Hot through Tuesday, with high temperatures areawide near/above 100 degrees.

- A shift in the pattern arrives Tuesday night with rain chances forecast through the end of the week.

- Strong cold front remains on track to arrive at some point late next weekend, though details this far out remain a bit unclear.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis currently highlight a strong mid/upper ridge centered over the central CONUS while upper impulses reside over both the Pacific Northwest and northeast CONUS. Showers and a few rumbles of thunder were observed across portions of Kansas earlier this morning along a weak 850-700 mb baroclinic zone. A weak outflow boundary currently spans along a rough line from Marion to Pratt. Isolated to scattered activity has been observed early this afternoon across portions of the Flint Hills amid a weakly capped airmass with MLCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. This is expected to continue into the early evening primarily along and east of the Flint Hills, though a stray shower or storm near I-135 can't be ruled out considering convergence along the aforementioned outflow boundary. As the discussion earlier this morning highlighted, the main concern with the strongest activity continues to be strong downburst winds with progged DCAPE values around 1200 J/kg. Deep-layer shear around 25 kts should largely preclude broader storm organization, though a handful of strong to marginally severe storms are possible prior to sunset. A similar setup may remain in place Monday afternoon, as point soundings from short-term guidance highlight weak capping and DCAPE values around 1000 J/kg. Once again, the best chances for storms appear to reside primarily along and east of the Flint Hills at this time.

With ridging overhead, temperatures through Tuesday will remain hot for this time of year with afternoon highs forecast near/above 100 degrees across the forecast area. A shift in the hot pattern looks to arrive late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as a midlevel wave tracks east across the Northern Plains. This will work to both flatten the mid/upper ridge and push a cold front through the Plains. Mid/long range guidance continues to indicate cooler temperatures and increasing rain chances as this boundary pushes south on Wednesday, and most of the area could see highs near 90 degrees by Thursday.

A surface trough setting up over the forecast area will allow for strengthening southerly winds to close out the week. These will promote a slight warming trend for Friday and Saturday with forecast highs in the mid 90s. From here, long range guidance highlights a potent mid/upper shortwave ejecting into the Northern Plains late Saturday night into early Sunday. This will displace another cold front southward at some point Sunday which will bring cooler temperatures and may bring widespread rainfall as well. Details remain a bit unclear this far out considering discrepancies between global models such as the GFS and Euro, with the former preferring a quicker arrival of the front which would promote highs in the upper 80s to close out the weekend. All told, details are likely to change as additional information becomes available, so stay tuned as we continue to refine the details.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

A weak outflow boundary across central Kansas is leading to light and variable winds. Winds will eventually turn out of the south-southeast this afternoon, remaining around 10 knots through the overnight period. Winds will become southerly and increase significantly for RSL and GBD after 12Z with gusts around 25 knots. Southerly to southeasterly winds around 10 knots are expected elsewhere through the period.

A few thunderstorms are developing across southeast Kansas this afternoon. Spotty impacts are expected, most likely to impact CNU. Reduced vis and breezy winds would be the most likely impacts on site.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.