textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front arrives today bringing breezy northwest winds.

- Gradual cooling trend through the weekend.

- Next rain chances appear to be late Saturday through early Monday with the highest chances Sunday morning and early afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show a sharp deep layer trough quickly progressing eastward over the Upper Midwest, and a broad mid/upper ridge out over the southwestern CONUS. At the surface, an area of low pressure is moving eastward across Iowa with a frontal boundary draped across northern Missouri and central Kansas. Out ahead of the front, light winds and clear skies are contributing to optimal radiational cooling, and there's sufficient low-level moisture for areas of dense fog to develop across portions of south-central and southeast Kansas. As the aforementioned frontal boundary pushes southeast this morning, increasing northwesterly winds will usher in a drier air mass, and fog should dissipate from northwest to southeast through the morning hours. Still, portions of far southeast Kansas could see dense fog linger through 15-16Z this morning before the front passes through. A fairly strong surface ridge sinking southward into the northern/central CONUS will contribute to a tight pressure gradient across the area today. As a result, sustained northwest winds will be around 15 to 25 mph with gusts around 30 to 35 mph this afternoon. Surface winds will be lighter on Thursday, but will remain northerly which will continue the advection a cooler airmass into the forecast area throughout the day. As a result, afternoon highs will only rise into the 50s and low 60s. Light winds and clear skies will allow for ample radiational cooling Thursday night and Friday morning supporting temperatures near or slightly below freezing area wide. Friday will be a little cooler with afternoon highs in the low to mid 50s, and nighttime lows around freezing.

Mid range global guidance continues to remain consistent with showing a deep layer trough skating across the central CONUS this weekend. As such, rain chances continue to increase for late Saturday through early Monday. Generally speaking, this will be supported by broad synoptic ascent overspreading the central plains. However, little to no instability will limit any thunderstorm potential. Additionally, another push of cooler air will send afternoon temperatures down into the 40s on Sunday. Heading into next week, the return of southerly low-level flow will introduce a slight warming trend. Long range guidance beyond the forecast period continues to show increased probabilities for above average precipitation late next week into the following weekend, and details should come into better focus for this period over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 505 AM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

Areas of dense fog continue across portions of southeast Kansas this morning ahead of an advancing cold front. As northwest winds increase this morning, fog should quickly mix out, and VFR conditions should resume by 14-15Z.

The next aviation concern will be breezy northwest winds between 15Z through 00Z this evening. Sustained winds across the area will be between 15 to 20 knots with gusts around 25 to 30 knots possible. After 00Z, winds should decrease to around or under 10 knots, and VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the overnight hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for KSZ069- 092>096-098>100.