textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers with a few rumbles of thunder will linger across the forecast area this morning.

- Brief "cool-down" for today into Thursday with heat returning for Friday and especially the weekend.

- Isolated rain and storm chances return for central Kansas on Thursday and Friday nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently, a deep trough is located over Hudson Bay in Canada with a shortwave extending over the Northern Rockies. The ridge axis has been displaced to the west, now extending over the Intermountain West. The cold front associated with the larger trough is located over southern Kansas with northeasterly winds for much of the state early this morning. A secondary frontal boundary related to the shortwave extends across Nebraska. Run of the mill rain and storms in the wake of the first frontal boundary are marching south across this state this morning. This activity will continue to diminish in coverage and intensity through the AM hours with just spotty activity lingering across southern Kansas by early afternoon. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 80s and lower 90s for most in the forecast area today, with locations along the KS/OK border hovering near 100 degrees.

Isolated rain/storm chances return to the forecast area this evening into tonight as the shortwave grazes the Central Plains. The secondary frontal boundary will skim northeastern Kansas and push into a moderately moist airmass leading to a few diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms for our central Kansas counties during the evening hours. As the boundary pushes further south through the overnight hours and interacts with a strengthening LLJ, additional rain/storm activity may be possible across far southern and southeast Kansas around 06Z.

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue behind the front on Thursday with highs in the lower to middle 90s. Heights will begin to rise across the Plains on Friday leading to gradually warmer temperatures for the area. Temperatures will range between the middle to upper 90s on Friday afternoon. As the forecast area sits under mid/upper level northwesterly flow on the periphery of the ridge, small perturbations in the flow may allow isolated convection to impact northern and far eastern portions of the forecast area on both Thursday and Friday night. Maintained low (15-20%) POPs for those time frames, with further refinement necessary as we draw closer to those periods.

For the second half of the forecast period (Sat-Tue), models continue to show the ridge building back in over the region from the west. Trends show warming temperatures for the upcoming weekend and into next week with highs in the upper 90s to lower 100s. Long term solutions center the strengthening ridge over the Rockies and Plains beyond the forecast time frame suggesting another long duration heat wave may be in store.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Aug 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through most of the period. Showers and storms currently observed across the High Plains are expected to arrive in portions of central KS later this morning, and associated heavy rainfall may result in temporary MVFR vsbys. Tried to time out this arrival with VCSH/-TSRA mentions at GBD/RSL/SLN, though this timing may change as further trends are realized. Currently not expecting -TSRA to make it to south central or southeast sites so held with VCSH for this cycle. Activity should depart most locations by late morning or early afternoon.

Otherwise, mainly northerly winds are forecast throughout the period behind a cold front passing through the area. Speeds throughout the daytime hours should remain below 12 kts, though slightly stronger winds may be observed just behind the boundary early this morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.