textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cool on Monday, then above normal temperatures return beginning Tuesday.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected Tuesday, Friday, and Saturday.

- Dry through mid-week before chances for light rain return Wednesday night into Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate strong northwest flow aloft over the Plains as the mid/upper ridge builds over the Rockies. At the surface, high pressure situated across the region has allowed for light to breezy north winds throughout the forecast area under mostly clear skies. This setup will allow for the continuation of seasonably cool to below-normal temperatures in the near term, with lows tonight expected to dip into the teens and highs Monday afternoon mostly in the 40s. Winds will gradually turn around to the south throughout the day as high pressure slides east toward the Ohio River Valley.

The return of southerly flow at the surface will allow for above normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 60s for Tuesday and Wednesday. Mid/long range guidance then highlights mid-level energy diving southeast across the Northern Plains and shunting a cold front through the forecast area Wednesday evening into Thursday. This will bring modest chances (30-50%) for rain back to the region along with a brief cooling of afternoon highs near 60 on Thursday. NBM probabilities of receiving less than 0.10" are in the 70-80% range for most of the area during this period, so we are not expecting anything more than light rain for this event.

Looking ahead to the extended period, ensemble guidance (EPS/CMC) suggests the arrival of a cold front Saturday and the potential return of cooler temperatures and additional light precipitation for the weekend. Details remain a bit unclear at this time, especially given disagreement from GEFS solutions that keep the area relatively warm and dry. Stay tuned as additional information becomes available.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 517 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period. Light northerly winds will shift to easterly overnight. Winds will continue to shift to southerly by 18z and pick up in speeds especially for sites in central to south-central Kansas. Sustained winds will be between 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Strong south/southwest winds sustained at 15-20 mph and gusting up to 30 mph will combine with RH values in the 20-30% range to produce very high grassland fire danger for areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike Tuesday afternoon.

A similar combination of weather conditions is expected to result in very high grassland fire danger during the afternoon hours on Friday and Saturday, especially for areas along and east of the Flint Hills.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.