textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will linger into the evening hours with heavy rain and flooding possible.

- If we see some clearing in parts of south central KS near the OK state line this afternoon, there may be a brief window where we could see a strong storm or two, including a low tornado potential.

- Dry week ahead with seasonably mild temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A mid/upper trough was situated over the Oklahoma Panhandle area early this afternoon and it is progged to shear eastward while filling as we move into the evening hours. Meanwhile, a cold front bisecting central KS will gradually move south and east across the area this evening and tonight. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop ahead of the mid/upper trough targeting south central KS this afternoon and evening. We continue to see a very moist airmass with PWATs at or above 1.75 inches which is roughly 200% of normal for early Oct. REFS/HREF neighborhood probabilities of exceeding 2 inches of rain in 6 hours have increased considerably (>80%) for those along and south of Hwy 56, across much of south central KS and the flood watch was expanded for much of the area along and west of the Flint Hills through midnight. Some breaks in the clouds on the eastern periphery of weak sfc low could allow for some local heating leading to a strong storm or two near the OK state line. Considerable cloud cover remains, so confidence remains fairly low but a locally strong storm or two could be possible. A stable post-frontal airmass will gradually build southward across the region tonight with rain chances diminishing as we move through the overnight hours.

Friday--Thursday...a stable post-frontal regime will be in place Fri- Sat with breezy winds gradually subsiding as we move through the day on Friday. The mid/upper flow will transition to a NW flow regime as we move through the week with mild and dry weather anticipated. An extended period of dry and warm conditions are anticipated with above normal temperatures returning to the area Tuesday- Thursday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1234 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

The main aviation concern continues to be shower and thunderstorm chances this afternoon and evening.

Showers were ongoing across much of central Kansas early this afternoon and more activity is expected to develop ahead of an approaching upper level storm system. Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity, some with heavy rain, is expected to impact much of south central Kansas this afternoon and early evening. Heavy rainfall may result in IFR at times before the activity gradually diminishes during the mid evening hours. Low cigs (MVFR or perhaps IFR) may follow the shower and storm activity, however a more stable post-frontal airmass will gradually build southward allowing VFR to return from north to south as we move through the overnight hours. Gusty northerly winds will also develop in the wake of the front with some gusts of 25-30 mph possible at times through the overnight hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until midnight CDT tonight for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>070-082-083-091-092.