textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Numerous showers/storms expected early this morning into the afternoon with isolated severe storms possible

- Thunderstorms are possible again for Friday night, but better chances for more widespread and potentially severe storms looks to occur Saturday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Cooler daytime highs will be on tap today with clouds from showers and storms lingering over the region. Elevated showers/storms are expected to become more numerous during the early morning hours and continue into afternoon today. This activity will mainly affect locations along and south of highway 56 where warm moist advection at 700mb will be maximized. Favorable elevated CAPE and mid-level wind shear supports some of the storms becoming strong or severe. Due to numerous expected showers/storms in closer proximity to each other this could hinder the stronger storm organization, therefore any large hail producing storms could be more isolated. Heavy rainfall is also a risk with the activity for this morning/afternoon given higher than normal atmospheric moisture in place. This activity will gradually shift southward from Kansas into Oklahoma by late this afternoon. Dry weather conditions look to prevail for tonight into Friday afternoon. Next round of showers/storms will be possible on Friday night over central/south central Kansas where 700mb warm advection begins to increase again. Instability/shear combination is not as favorable this period for severe weather.

The main period for potential severe weather impacting the area continues to be focused on Saturday night. Models remain in fairly good agreement showing low level moist upslope regime becoming established over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas on Saturday. In this setup, storms would likely initiate Saturday afternoon over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas, then grow upscale as upslope regime becomes enriched with higher precipitable water and more unstable. Increasing low level jet/moisture transport looks to feed/lead a forward propagating MCS diving into the higher instability axis. This scenario would steer the MCS cluster southeast across much of our CWA Saturday night. Main hazards at night would transition to damaging winds and heavy rainfall as the MCS matures and gains strength. This could toss a wrench into Sunday's forecast especially if the MCS becomes a large complex that pushes a pronounced outflow boundary well south of Kansas on Saturday night. Therefore, confidence is low for Sunday's forecast. Heading into early next week longer range models are showing a signal that favors more of a quiet weather pattern versus a stormy weather pattern.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible early this morning into the afternoon, particularly for areas along and south of US-56. Decided to introduce VCTS and TEMPO groups for impacts with this cycle, with ICT/HUT/CNU currently being the locations with highest confidence for TSRA. Questions remain regarding the northward extent of TSRA, so decided to introduce VCSH groups at SLN/GBD later this morning to account for activity in the area.

It should be noted that on and off thunder is possible particularly in the area of highest confidence (south central and southeast KS) through roughly 00Z per the latest short-term guidance. Decided to leave the later morning/afternoon hours at VCSH for this issuance to account for broad uncertainty with how convection will evolve throughout the day. Later forecasts should have a better handle on timing and location as radar trends become available.

Finally, northeast winds are expected at all sites this morning with a gradual turn to the east forecast throughout the period. Expect winds to lighten up later this morning with speeds generally around/below 12 kts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.