textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Seasonably mild today.

- Cold front arrives Wednesday leading to a cool down to end the work week.

- Low rain chances forecast for Sunday with light rainfall amounts possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 335 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Early this morning, upper air analysis shows a weak mid/upper cutoff low spinning over northern Texas with a mid/upper ridge axis extending from southern California to the central plains. Meanwhile, a sharp deep layer trough is quickly progressing southeastward across the PNW and northern Rockies. At the surface, a very weak frontal boundary is drifting southward across Kansas with very light winds on either side of this boundary. Despite these calm winds and clear skies leading to optimal radiational cooling, dewpoint depressions remain just a tick too high for the development of fog across the area. That being said, short term guidance suggests a brief period of patchy fog is possible around sunrise before quickly mixing out by mid-morning. Continued weak low-level CAA on the north side of the frontal boundary will keep afternoon highs in the mid 60s across central Kansas. Meanwhile, locations across southern and southeast Kansas should see afternoon highs in the 70s. With the frontal boundary washing out later today, a seasonably mild airmass will continue to linger keeping overnight lows in the 40s and 50s.

The aforementioned trough over the PNW will continue rapidly making its way southeastward throughout the day today, and the trough axis will likely be located over the central plains by this time Wednesday morning. In response, lee cyclogenesis is forecast across the northern High Plains later this afternoon, and by Wednesday morning, the surface cyclone will be located over the Upper Midwest with an associated cold front pushing southward across Kansas. In the cold front's wake, a surface ridge is set to dominate the region through the end of the work week ushering in a cooler airmass through Friday. While highs Wednesday afternoon are still forecast to reach the 60s, Thursday and Friday's highs will likely only be in the 50s which is just a tick below average for this time of year. In fact, temperatures are likely to flirt with the freezing mark both Thursday and Friday nights. Heading into the weekend, guidance continues to show a brief period of mid/upper ridging residing over the central plains before a vigorous system arrives late in the weekend or early next week. As a result, Sunday now features rain chances across the forecast area, but potential amounts appear low at this time. Looking beyond the forecast period, long range global guidance appears to be confident in increased probabilities for above average precipitation for next week, but we're still too far out for exact details at this time.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1125 AM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

VFR will prevail across the region this afternoon and evening, but we could see some patchy fog develop across portions of southeast KS ahead of a weak cold front expected to arrive early on Wed. Breezy northwest winds in the wake of the front are anticipated on Wed afternoon while VFR prevails.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.