textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very hot temperatures will continue through at least Wednesday with chances increasing that Thursday will also be very hot.

- Storm chances will increase Wednesday night through Friday, especially north of the forecast area, with chances slowly working further south for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Showers and storms developed several hours ago across southwest Nebraska and northwest KS and have been dissipating as they slowly track southeast. This activity has kicked out some outflow that is currently pushing through northwest KS. Additional storms are currently moving through northeast KS into nw MO in an area of persistent 850mb moisture transport. Convection should continue to weaken early this morning with some of this activity potentially affecting areas along and north of I-70 before sunrise.

The main question for today is whether convection and associated cloud debris will be enough to limit extreme temps. Current thinking is that there will be enough time for most of the area to recover by this afternoon. So went ahead and ran with another heat advisory for the entire area with the highest confidence in reaching criteria, along and south of Highway 56. With winds today not quite as veered out as Sunday, we may see slightly higher dewpoints remain further west. Just like Sunday, Russell will have the best chance to reach or break a max temp record today. This is mainly because the period of record for Russell doesn't go back into the 1930s. Front will lift even further north for Tue, leaving extreme heat in place across the entire region, with all sites seeing highs at or over 100 degrees. There's a good chance we may need another heat advisory area wide for Tuesday.

We will start to see a slight pattern change starting Wed as some shortwave energy starts to dig across the Pacific Northwest. At the same time an additional piece of energy will track out of MB and into western Ontario. This will allow the low level baroclinic zone to shift south and also allow some weak upper perturbations to lift out of the Desert Southwest, across the Rockies and out into the Central Plains. While this will result in high likelyhood of an MCS tracking across the Plains Wed night, confidence is high that it will unfortunately stay north of the forecast area. So confidence remains high that we are in for more extreme heat for Wed afternoon and early evening.

Broad southwesterly upper flow for Thu into the weekend will continue to allow a series of weak upper impulses to lift out of the Desert Southwest and out into the Plains, bringing continued MCS activity. The big question will be how far south this activity makes it. Models right now agree on keeping most of this activity north and west of the forecast area for Fri and Sat, with increased chances for Sat night into Sun. So at this time, it appears likely that extreme heat will stick around for Thursday and possibly Friday for southern portions of the forecast area. Best case scenario would be that continued MCS activity north of us would push the cold front further south, bringing more relief from the heat for the weekend. However, confidence in this taking place isn't that high at this time.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 614 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Aviation concerns will remain minimal through the next 24 hours.

Some very light showers continue to linger across northwest into central KS and will continue for the next few hours, possibly affecting KRSL-KGBD. Expecting more mid and high clouds around today, especially across central KS. However, confidence is high that they will remain at VFR levels. South winds will also remain in place through this TAF period, with some afternoon gusts in the 20-25 mph range possible.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.