textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few strong storms remain possible through the afternoon and evening across far southern Kansas.

- Strong to severe storms possible to start next week, with the best chances expected Monday and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate zonal flow across the Great Lakes as a potent upper wave swirls just off the California Coast. Surface analysis highlights a cold front just south of the Kansas-Oklahoma border where showers and thunderstorms continue to be observed this afternoon. We expect to see activity dissipate with the loss of heating later this evening, though instability around 1500-2000 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear in the 20-30 kt range may promote a handful of strong to marginally severe storms in far southern KS. Additional showers and weak thunderstorms are expected to develop in central KS later tonight into Saturday morning as low-level moisture transport and warm air advection increase with the strengthening of the LLJ. This activity is not expected to be severe, though isolated wind gusts and marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out at this time.

A majority of short-term guidance suggests rain chances will shift to the north and east as the LLJ veers out and dissipates Saturday morning. Much of the area should see a lull in precipitation through a majority of the day as the mid/upper ridge slides overhead. This break may be short-lived, however, with low-level theta-e advection could allow for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms to redevelop during the late afternoon hours. Per the previous discussion, a lack of support aloft may preclude chances for greater coverage during this timeframe, so confidence in storms during the afternoon is somewhat low. Chances were held to around 20-30% to account for this uncertainty. Rain chances are forecast to increase overnight with increasing forcing for ascent as the approaching mid/upper wave begins to eject out of the Rockies, with the best chances for rain residing primarily along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

The aforementioned wave will continue ejecting into the Plains on Sunday. There remains a bit of uncertainty regarding how showers and storms remaining from the morning will impact afternoon activity. However, should storms manage to develop along the dryline progged to setup west of I-135, large hail will be the primary hazard. This severe setup remains conditional on the timing of the wave as well; an overall lack of shear may result in marginally severe storms. A better signal for strong to severe storms arrives Monday and Tuesday as a potent shortwave translates out of the Desert Southwest into the Plains. Details remain a bit unclear for now, though the potential for supercells capable of all hazards appear possible during the timeframe at this point. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1238 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Low clouds and poor aviation conditions will affect central Kansas and parts of southern Kansas as a cold front sinks slowly southward this afternoon. Showers and storms will be possible across far southern Kansas during the afternoon/evening time frame. Meanwhile low cigs and lower visibilities will continue to affect the entire region tonight along with chances of showers/storms redeveloping over central Kansas later tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 316 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds along with minimum RH values in the 15- 25% range are forecast to lead to very high grassland fire danger Monday and Tuesday afternoons for north central and portions of south central KS. Showers and storms in the coming days may allow for a green up and subsequent reduction in fire weather risk.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.