textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- On-and-off showers and storms persist into Saturday morning. Some strong to severe wind gusts are possible later this afternoon and evening across south central KS, though the severe threat is low at this time.

- Storm chances return on Saturday, with strong to marginally severe activity possible in the afternoon and early evening across portions of central and south central KS.

- Mostly dry Sunday and Monday before rain chances return perhaps as early as Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict a mid/upper wave ejecting out of the Rockies into the Plains. An anomalous fetch of moisture characterized by PWs ranging from 150- 200% of normal for this time of year accompanies this feature and spans from Baja California to the Central Plains and beyond. Additionally, a region of showers and weak storms is seen across the TX/OK Panhandles and southwest KS amidst strong 850-700 mb moisture transport. These will continue shifting northeast and increase in coverage across the forecast area later this afternoon and evening as the wave continues its northeast track. Similar to Thursday, the overall severe threat appears low at this time considering pseudoadiabatic lapse rates, though effective shear around 25-35 kts could result in some storm organization leading to strong to marginally severe wind gusts mainly west of I-135. Heavy rainfall may also lead to localized flooding concerns due to the persistent tropical airmass and moist antecedent soil conditions.

Activity will continue into Saturday morning across eastern KS as the mid/upper impulse shifts toward the Upper Mississippi Valley. By late afternoon, warming surface temperatures within the moist airmass will yield MLCAPE in the 1000-2000 J/kg range across portions of central and south central KS ahead of an approaching weak surface trough. This may lead to isolated strong to severe storms capable of strong winds and marginally severe hail through the evening hours, thought effective shear around 20-25 kts should preclude widespread severe weather. As has been the case for the last several days, the primary hazard will remain heavy rainfall leading to localized flooding.

Rain chances will push eastward heading into Sunday morning with perhaps a handful of showers lingering across southeast KS by sunrise. Besides this, most of the area should remain dry Sunday into Monday with mid/upper ridging overhead. This break in rain chances will be short-lived, however, as global models carry a potent wave into the southwest CONUS by late Monday night. Strengthening low-level moisture transport over the region should promote the development of showers and storms by Tuesday as the upper low slides eastward, and by the middle of the week, this upper system looks to absorb a tropical disturbance coming out of Baja California. This will allow for continued showers and storms through Thursday within another anomalously-moist airmass. This solution will likely be dependent on how progressive the upper wave is, however, and with little run-to-run consensus among long-range deterministic solutions, confidence in the details (such as rainfall totals and duration) remains low at this time. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms will impact mainly eastern Kansas this afternoon. This activity should be more spotty in nature so covered this threat with a PROB30 at all TAF sites. By early this evening, scattered to numerous shower/thunderstorm chances are expected to increase from the west as an ejecting Southern Rockies approaches from the southwest. Covered this threat with TEMPO groups at all TAF sites except CNU. The strongest activity will be capable of locally heavy rainfall and 30-45 kt winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.