textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures well above normal for Wednesday and Thursday with many locations around 80 degrees.

- Shower and storm chances increase for Friday and continue through at least Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Upper impulse that brought light rain to the area early this morning is now tracking across eastern MO. Meanwhile, a northern stream wave is lifting across the northern Rockies. At the surface, cold front extends from central IA to just south of the KS/NE border and started to wash out a couple hours ago.

A broad area of southwest flow aloft will setup across the Plains tonight and will persist through Wed night. Still a small chance for a few showers and storms late tonight southeast of the KS Turnpike as low level jet develops increasing moisture transport. Widespread highs around 80 are likely for Wed with these readings around 15 degrees above normal highs for this time of year. Fast moving upper impulse will slide across the Northern Plains on Wed and will push a cold front into north/central KS Wed evening. A few showers/storms may develop along the front Wed night with the better chances over northeast KS.

Focus will then shift to a southern stream impulse set to lift across sw/central TX on Thu night and into OK by Fri morning. This will overspread showers across much of KS Fri and continuing through at least Sat morning. There are some model differences that will need to be worked out that will have an impact on rainfall location and timing. The ECMWF is further east and much faster with the upper impulse compared to most of the other models. Currently have a lean to the slower and further west solutions which may delay on the onset of rainfall on Fri and linger a bit longer on Sat. PW values through this period look to be 175-200% of normal, so some decent rainfall amounts will be possible. However, the fairly progressive nature of this wave should keep flooding in check.

Medium range models are still digging a more significant trough across the Great Basin/Desert Southwest starting Sun evening. We should see the initial area of mid level warm advection precip Sun night into Mon morning. While the timing is different, both ECMWF and GFS close-off this system as a deep upper low over western OK/TX Panhandle in the Mon night-Tue time frame. This would place much of the forecast area in the deformation zone of this system which would result in widespread cold rain and strong winds.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1217 PM CDT Tue Oct 27 2026

Low cigs and vis are gradually lifting from south to north. LIFR/IFR conditions will remain across central Kansas for the next few hours. VFR conditions will return later this evening for all sites. Light and variable winds will become southerly this afternoon for all locations, increasing to around 10 knots. Winds will increase further towards the end of the forecast time frame with sustained winds around 15 knots and gusts around 25 knots.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.