textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Thunderstorm chances become likely tonight across portions of central and south-central KS, with severe weather possible.

- Additional thunderstorms are possible each day Tuesday through Sunday, widespread severe weather is unlikely

- Seasonal temperatures for Tue-Sun with highs in the 80s and lows falling into the 60s

DISCUSSION

Issued at 245 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Currently, a weak trough is situated over the Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains. A ridge is building in from the south over the region with the ridge axis extending over the forecast area. At the surface, a lee low pressure has developed over southeast Colorado with a surface high developing over Nebraska behind a weak frontal boundary. Just ahead of this frontal boundary, weak showers with isolated lightning have been persistent this morning/early afternoon over central Kansas. Temperatures this afternoon under the building ridge will top out around 90 degrees for most across the area.

For later this evening into tonight, a Slight Risk for severe storms is in place for central and south-central Kansas. The low pressure over southeastern Colorado will lead to easterly/southeasterly flow across western Kansas. This will support increased moisture and upslope flow which will aid in storm development during the afternoon hours across the High Plains. Storms will eventually congeal into a multicellular MCS that will march east-southeastward towards central Kansas during the late evening and overnight hours. Large hail and strong winds will be the main threats across central Kansas with the wind threat lingering into south-central Kansas.

Then through mid week, the mid/upper level ridge axis will sit just to our east, keeping western and central Kansas in southwesterly flow and in the higher probabilities for storm activity. Eastern Kansas, being more solidly under the ridge, will have an overall less supportive environment for convection due to synoptic scale subsidence. By late week, the ridge will shift further east of the region, returning rain and storm chances to eastern Kansas. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated over the next several days. Temperatures through the rest of the week and into the weekend will remain near normal, with afternoon highs reaching into the lower to middle 80s and lows falling into 60s each night.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 651 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Showers and thunderstorms over western Kansas are expected to arrive late this evening and overnight across much of central and south central Kansas. We could see some organized wind develop along any bowing segments. We also expect a period of MVFR/LIFR under the heavier shower and storm activity. Some of this activity could linger into the morning hours on Tuesday across south central KS.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.