textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing rain chances tonight through Sunday, especially for west and southwest portions of our forecast area.

- Gusty south winds are expected for Tuesday and especially Wednesday. This will result in very high fire danger for a small part of central Kansas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 251 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Currently have a deep upper trough extending from Quebec down through the Mid-Atlantic states. Meanwhile out west, one upper impulse is moving into southwest TX with a stronger piece of energy tracking southeast out of the Central Great Basin and approaching the Desert Southwest. At the surface,, large area of high pressure extends from western Ontario through the Mississippi Valley.

Surface high will shift east today allowing for return flow to setup across the High Plains. Showers will move into western KS by late this afternoon as 850-700mb moisture transport increases. Still looking for the upper wave to close off over the TX Panhandle tonight and then sink southeast along the Red River on Sunday. As the more widespread precip works east tonight, rain will start to shift southeast as the upper low does. So we are currently expecting the southwest portion of our forecast area to have the higher rainfall chances tonight through Sunday. By Sun night, the bulk of the rain chances will be south of the forecast area in Oklahoma.

Upper impulse will be tracking across the Arklatex region by Mon morning with another western CONUS trough just off of the CA coast. This will leave upper ridging in place across the Plains to start to work week with increasing temps. Western CONUS trough will remain very progressive and by Tue evening will be lifting out of the Central Great Basin and into the Central Plains on Wed. Lee troughing will deepen ahead of this wave and will setup strong south winds for both Tue and especially Wed with some gusts over 40 mph likely for areas along and west of I-135. While some showers will be possible across eastern KS on Wed, not looking for a widespread precip event with this system. This impulse will rapidly lift northeast and will be moving into the western Great Lakes region by Thu afternoon.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 533 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Main aviation concern will be lowering ceilings tonight.

Ahead of an approaching low pressure system, southeast winds will continue to increase moisture across the High Plains. This will eventually lead to ceilings gradually lowering tonight. However, will leave VFR at all sites for now with KRSL-KGBD expected to be at the lower end of VFR levels after 10z. Areas west of I-135 should also see some scattered showers late tonight but are not expected to reduce vis.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 251 AM CST Sat Nov 14 2026

Very high fire danger will be possible Wed afternoon for mainly Barton and Russell counties.

Southwest winds by Wed afternoon are expected to be sustained around 30 mph with gusts in the 40-45mph range across parts of central KS. RH's will not be very low as they only fall to around 60%. However, with cured grasses, strong south winds will elevate the grassland fire danger into the very high category.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.