textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances return to mainly central Kansas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Damaging winds will be the primary concerns with the strongest storms.

- Additional storms appear likely Thursday night through Saturday evening. Strong to severe storms remain possible with this activity.

- Slight warming trend expected through Thursday, then a return to near normal temperatures heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 246 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict a mid/upper low swirling near the Lower Mississippi River Valley as continued upper ridging persists over the region. This will allow for continued dry conditions through Wednesday afternoon alongside highs largely in the middle to upper 90s, with heat index values around or slightly above 100 degrees possible especially in south central Kansas.

A change in the recent dry pattern arrives late Wednesday as a shortwave tracks eastward into the Plains. This will allow for a weak frontal zone to slowly shift southward into the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Short-term guidance suggests the potential for storms growing into a cluster further north and tracking to the southeast across southern Nebraska and north central Kansas. Better support for storm potential should reside to our north and west, though propagation vectors suggest portions of central and perhaps even south central Kansas may see scattered activity particularly after midnight and lasting into early Thursday morning. With healthy DCAPE in place, damaging wind gusts will be the primary threat as storms move through the area.

Storm chances will return later Thursday and Friday as outflow from overnight activity kicks off another round of convection by the evening/overnight timeframe. Per the prior discussion, widespread severe weather appears unlikely at this time, though modest shear paired with decent buoyancy may continue to promote strong to severe storms heading into the weekend. Furthermore, additional rounds of rainfall may lead to localized flooding concerns especially Thursday night and Friday.

Temperatures toward the latter half of the week will be influenced by storm coverage overnight and whether skies clear out in time for peak heating. For now, guidance suggests highs in the mid 90s on Thursday and then near 90 beginning Friday and lasting into the beginning of next week. If cloud cover from overnight storms limits insolation into the afternoon, it may be a struggle to reach the current forecast values through Saturday. As things stand, however, heat index values around/above 100 degrees are forecast in southeast Kansas for the afternoon and early evening hours beginning Thursday and potentially lasting into Monday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1146 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

VFR conditions across the area for the entire TAF period with no impacts expected. Wind speeds will gradually increase a bit by tomorrow morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.