textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chances for showers/storms tonight and again on Thursday night along with potential for a few strong to marginally severe storms and heavy rainfall

- Higher confidence for another heat wave to build across the region for the weekend into mid-week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Lingering showers/storms will be possible again over central Kansas and parts of southeast Kansas this morning. Current satellite water vapor imagery shows an embedded upper level short wave over Wyoming traveling southeast via northwest flow regime aloft. This system will track east-southeast across Nebraska today and reach southeast Nebraska/northeast Kansas later tonight. A surface cold front will continue to migrate slowly southeast today and create a noticeable temperature difference from central Kansas compared to southern Kansas. A few storms could try and develop along the frontal boundary over southern Kansas late this afternoon/evening where convective temperatures should be attained. Otherwise a better signal for showers/storms will develop later tonight as low level jet increases moisture transport into a 700mb baroclinic zone. Expecting scattered storms to begin developing over parts of central/south central Kansas and more numerous storms to impact northeast Kansas/northwest Missouri mainly after 10pm. Elevated environment is supportive of a few strong to marginally severe storms given favorable 700-500mb layer directional shear profile and adequate instability. The activity looks to shift east of Kansas by Thursday morning with generally dry weather on tap during the day. Another round of elevated showers/storms is expected Thursday night with same signal of increasing low jet focusing moisture transport into 700mb baroclinic zone. The coverage of showers/storms looks to become more numerous along with potential for a few elevated strong to marginally severe storms possible again. There is also a threat for heavy rainfall to impact parts of southeast Kansas Thursday night.

Deterministic models continue to show upper level high pressure center stretching eastward from the Rockies across Kansas for the weekend through early next week. High confidence that another round of heat and dry weather will affect the region this period. Model ensembles show increasing probabilities for 100 degrees or higher daytime high temperatures to begin affecting locations generally along and west of I-135/I-35 on Saturday. The model ensemble probabilities for 100 degrees or greater for daytime highs reaches 70-90% Sunday-Tuesday for those same locations.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

A mixed bag of conditions this morning with IFR cigs and drizzle/BR reducing VSBY across central Kansas with southeast Kansas remains VFR. Some showers and TS have developed as well and will continue through the morning. Think conditions improve by late morning or early afternoon. Additional showers/storms develop this evening and overnight, but highest chances are north of TAF sites. Low clouds could accompany precipitation, but confidence is too low to include in TAF.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.