textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooling trend begins today, forecast to continue through the weekend.

- Next rain chances appear to be Saturday night through Sunday night with the highest chances Sunday morning and early afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite and upper air analysis show a rather amplified pattern across the CONUS with potent deep layer troughing across the Midwest and Appalachian Mountains and a mid/upper ridge over the Great Basin and Desert Southwest. At the surface, a ridge is sinking southward into the central plains as another push of cooler air approaches the forecast area. With slightly drier air and a persistent northerly drift early this morning, the probability of patchy fog is a bit lower than previously expected. Still, sparse coverage of fog, mainly near creeks and rivers, will be possible through 15Z this morning. With a back door cold front side swiping the forecast area today, a modest increase in northerly winds is forecast this afternoon with sustained winds around 10 to 15 mph, and gusts up to 25 mph at times. As the surface ridge sinks further south, winds will decrease again tonight. This along with clear skies will allow optimal radiational cooling, and temperatures will dip to or below freezing by early Friday morning. With a post frontal airmass gripping the region on Friday, afternoon highs will only rise into the 50s area-wide. Light winds and clear skies will again support temperatures around or below freezing Saturday morning.

Mid range global guidance continues to show a negatively tilted trough digging over the central and southern plains this weekend, and this feature will likely be the catalyst for rain chances late Saturday night through Sunday night. One caveat to potential rain chances on Sunday will be the track of this system. Guidance has trended just a tick further south over the past 24 hours, and it's entirely possible only southern and southeast Kansas see rainfall as this system passes through the region. Regardless, any rain that falls will be light, and limited instability should prevent the potential for thunder. Cooler temperatures will persist into the weekend with highs in the 40s, and lows in the 30s across the area. Should precipitation continue into Sunday night, temperatures should remain well above freezing keeping the precipitation type limited to rain. Heading into next week, the return of southerly low-level flow will promote a gradual warming trend with afternoon highs returning to the 60s by mid week. Lastly, long range deterministic and ensemble guidance continues to show the potential for a series of systems passing through the area mid to late next week. This would generally increase the potential for precipitation across the region in this time frame, and details will come into better focus over the next few days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1050 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

VFR will prevail tonight with light northerly winds. Some patchy fog may develop but confidence remains too low to mention at any terminal due to some mixing in the pbl with light northerly winds. A secondary surge of cooler air will arrive on Thursday morning and the forecast was trended towards more stratocumulus along and in the wake of the frontal boundary. Some MVFR ceilings may be possible across much of the area if this trend persists. We could see northeast winds gusting to around 15 knots at times on Thursday during the day.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.