textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures through Wednesday, gradually turning a bit cooler Thursday through next weekend. - Isolated storm chances along/north of I-70 each late afternoon and evening today through Tuesday or Wednesday, with off- and-on thunderstorm chances expanding areawide Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...An isolated thunderstorm or two is possible generally along/north of I-70 between about 5-10 PM in the vicinity of a stalled weak frontal zone draped across central to northern KS. Rather weak forcing along with some capping issues should keep activity quite isolated, so most locations should remain thunderstorm-free. The only caveat would be if outflow from the current eastern NE thunderstorm complex continues moving south, sharpening this frontal zone and increase convergence, supporting somewhat better chances for isolated thunderstorms. The main hazard will likely be isolated severe wind gusts given inverted-v thermodynamic profile, although modest effective deep layer shear may also support lower-end severe hail with the tallest cores.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--WEDNESDAY EVENING...Sunday through Wednesday look like carbon copies of each other, with isolated thunderstorm chances each late afternoon-evening in vicinity of another stalled frontal zone that'll begin situating itself across Mid-America Sunday. Weak ripples in the mid/upper flow will also aid in these chances. Similar to today, thinking these isolated chances will be "highest" generally along/north of I-70, although activity could reach as far south as roughly Highway 56. Similar to today, rather weak forcing and some capping issues should keep most locations thunderstorm-free. The main hazard will likely be severe wind gusts given inverted-v thermodynamic profiles, although modest deep layer effective shear may support marginally severe hail as well with the tallest cores.

THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, a deepening upper trough across central to eastern North America should support the stalled frontal zone to sharpen some and finally begin to progress south through the region late week through next weekend. This should support increasing chances for off-and-on thunderstorms expanding south to include much of the region, mainly during the late afternoon-evening-night-morning hours each day. There remains quite a bit of uncertainty on the speed and placement of the frontal zone given significant differences on the aforementioned upper trough location and magnitude, which makes the thunderstorm forecast highly uncertain. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

THROUGH WEDNESDAY...Persistent central/southern CONUS upper ridging in concert with breezy/gusty south winds will support above average temperatures through at least mid-week. Low-level thickness values support widespread upper 90s and 100s during the day, with overnight lows likely no cooler than the upper 70s to low 80s. Forecast highs may actually be a tad conservative (especially along/west of I-135) given the mostly dry weather and associated lower soil moisture the past several weeks. Two saving graces during this upcoming warm spell are the likelihood of lower dewpoints compared to the July heat waves and stout/gusty south winds, which will aid in evaporative cooling effects on skin. Heat indices around 100-106 degrees are likely each day, highest generally over southern/southeast KS during the afternoon through early evening, so later shifts may need to consider Heat Advisory headlines at some point for portions of the area.

THURSDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...A stalled frontal zone should eventually move south through the region sometime late week through next weekend, supporting somewhat cooler temperatures in its wake. The degree of cooling and when the cooler air arrives is highly uncertain and will be tied to frontal zone timing and magnitude. Cooler scenarios support widespread daytime highs in the 80s (especially next weekend), while warmer scenarios only "cool off" the region into the 90s. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 627 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Low level wind shear tonight (5-8Z) through Sunday morning (~14Z) is the main concern for this forecast period west of the Flint Hills primarily. The directional change will be more subtle, but the speed could reach 45-50kts around 2k feet. Southeast to south winds stay around 15kts overnight with gusts approaching 30kts particularly Sunday afternoon for most locations. Otherwise VFR conditions should prevail.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.