textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms continue this morning with some low end severe and flooding possible. Storms will be possible again this afternoon and evening for mainly southern KS with some large hail and damaging winds possible, along with high rainfall rates.

- Pattern will remain active for most of next week, mainly starting Tuesday night and continuing through Friday. The main scenario will be for storms to develop over the High Plains during the afternoon and roll east through the overnight hours.

- Below normal temps will continue, with highs each day expected to be in the 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 253 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Large complex of storms is currently making their way across central and eastern KS with some additional development across northwest KS that is also tracking off to the southeast. This whole area of storms is being fed by very strong 850-700mb theta-e advection that is gradually shifting from western KS into central KS. Storms are expected to continue for the next several hours, and by 12z, storms will mainly be affecting eastern and southern portions of the forecast area with most of this initial activity exiting the area by 16-17z. While some damaging winds will remain a threat through the morning hours, the wind threat has come down slightly from where it was a few hours ago. However, very frequent lightning and high rainfall rates are still likely.

Still looking for storms to redevelop this afternoon along the cold front but with large complex of storms moving across southern KS as we speak, confidence is low on how far north the front will be by this afternoon, so this will be something the day shift will need to monitor. Another mid/upper trough, that is currently located over the Central Rockies, will move through the area this evening and may result in some additional development generally along the 850mb front. While shear will be less than what we had overnight, there should be enough instability across southern KS for some hail and downburst winds. In addition, PWs will remain very high so high rainfall rates and flooding will also be possible with any storms tonight. Any storms that develop over southern KS tonight should push southeast fairly quickly and be out of the forecast area by around 09z.

We look to get a break from storms during the day Monday with the highest storm potential in the upslope regime over western KS. There is another upper perturbation forecast to move out of the central/southern Rockies Mon night and may bring some small chances for storms to mainly southern KS. However, current thinking is that the better chances will be south of the forecast area, closer to the front. There will be some small storm chances during the day Tue, but better chances look to arrive Tue night as a more substantial upper impulse moves through with a good low level jet response. Pattern will remain very active with decent model agreement in storms developing over the High Plains Thu and across our forecast area Thu night into Fri morning.

Confidence remains very high in below normal temperatures remaining through this entire forecast with highs each day in the low and mid 80s. Normal highs for this time of year are around 90 degrees.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 636 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms this morning and then again tonight.

Large complex of storms that developed across northwest KS last night are currently making their way through southeast KS. So currently expecting KCNU to continue seeing some for the next few hours before pushing east. Surface front is currently located north of I-70 and will start pushing south this morning, moving through central KS by 16z and KICT by 20-21z. Winds behind the front will flip around to the north and northeast. A few storms may try and develop along the front across southeast KS this afternoon but have higher confidence that sct storms will develop after 03z as the low level jet increases. KCNU will have the best chance to see these storms.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ033-048>053- 067>069-082-083-092-093. Flood Watch through this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096- 098>100.