textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Complex of storms to move through much of the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning with large hail and damaging winds likely.

- Active pattern remains next week with additional chances for showers and storms.

- Below normal temperatures are expected through most of the forecast with highs generally in the low and mid 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 239 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a compact upper impulse tracking out of southern SK and into the Northern Plains. Meanwhile, a much weaker southern stream wave is situated over west-central TX. At the surface a stationary front stretches from central AR, across southeast OK and into central TX.

Storms festered Thu evening over southern KS along the 850mb baroclinic zone with this activity slowly decreasing through the overnight hours. In addition, a few showers developed over the Flint Hills after midnight, in response to some very weak mid level warm advection. The bulk of the showers and storms through the morning hours will occur further south over sw OK in response to the weak upper low.

Upper impulse will track out of the Northern Plains and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by early this evening. At the same time surface high will slide east, allowing low level moisture to return across the High Plains. This same setup will continue tonight. By Sat morning, another upper perturbation will be tracking across the Great Basin and Central Rockies with a cold front stretching north of the KS/NE border. There are two areas of MCS development expected by early Sat evening. One will be tracking southeast out of central Nebraska and the other over northwest KS/southwest NE in response to good upslope flow along with increased lift from the approaching impulse. A few hours after storms develop they are expected to congeal and quickly track off to the east/southeast, across central and eastern KS. The main question will be how far south the complex makes it Sat night. Damaging winds and large hail will be likely with the storms Sat night, due to 45-50kts of deep layer shear and plenty of instability. Showers and storms will likely linger into Sun morning, especially across eastern KS with some additional activity through the afternoon across far southern KS along the front/outflow.

Pattern is expected to remain very active to start the work week, with another upper impulse set to track out of southern Canada and into the Northern Plains by Mon evening and into the Upper Mississippi Valley by Tue afternoon. Current thinking is that storms will once again develop across the High Plains by Mon evening and track southeast through Mon night into Tue potentially affecting parts of the forecast area.

With the pattern remaining active with a series of fronts forecast to slide through the area, temps will generally stay below normal with low and mid 80s for highs through most of the forecast.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Storms this morning are expected to stay down in OK. Meanwhile, some low VFR cigs are slowly lifting north across much of the area and should affect most sites by 15z. Confidence is high that they will stay at VFR levels. Winds today will come around to the southeast by late this morning and remain there through most of this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.