textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this morning through the afternoon; no severe weather expected

- Heat index values near 105 Monday afternoon with the highest values along and east of a line from Chase County to Chautauqua County

- Heat index values up to 110 Tuesday afternoon with the highest values across southern KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

As of 3 AM Sunday morning, a longwave, midlevel ridge axis continues to reside across the central and northern Plains. A weak, cutoff midlevel low continues to spin across southwest TX. Closer to home, weak WAA between 925 mb and 850 mb was contributing to isolated showers and thunderstorms across portions of south-central and southeast KS. PW values up to 1.9" will yield brief heavy rainfall with occasional lightning through sunrise.

The ridge axis will re-amplify across the central/northern Rockies into the central/southern Plains today through Tuesday. The overall airmass will remain unchanged this afternoon when compared to the past several days with high PW and minimal mixed-layer inhibition this afternoon. This should yield additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and occasional lightning are the main concerns. Showers and thunderstorms should diminish with sunset this evening. SREF/EPS/GEFS mean 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to range from 4-7 C Monday-Tuesday. This will result in afternoon temperatures approaching 100 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 60s to near 70, resulting in heat index values around 105 degrees Monday afternoon with the warmest along and east of a line from Chase County to Chautauqua County. A Heat Advisory has been issued from 1 PM to 9 PM Monday.

A shortwave trough is progged to dive southeast from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes region late Monday into Tuesday, shunting a weak cold front into the area Tuesday. Model guidance continues to align with frontal zone nearing the Highway-400 corridor by Tuesday afternoon. Areas along and south of the front will see temperatures approach 100 (heat index values up to 110 degrees), whereas post-frontal areas will see temperatures remain in the 90s. Given the potential for heat index values up to 110, an Extreme Heat Watch has been posted for Reno County to Allen County and points south. The front will clear the entire area by Wednesday with highs in the low 90s area-wide.

Mid range guidance is suggesting northwest midlevel flow may remain across the central Plains through the mid to latter portions of next week. This may allow for more-widespread rain chances to return to the area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 530 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period with southerly winds remaining less than 10 kt. Ongoing showers and thunderstorms are not expected to impact the terminals this morning. Additional, isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late this morning into the afternoon. Similar to the past few days, the sparse coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected today will preclude any mention at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 9 PM CDT Monday for KSZ053-070>072- 094>096-098>100. Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.