textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Much warmer temperatures for Wednesday through Saturday, with a cold front expected to move through Sunday morning. A few max temp records will be possible for Fri-Sat.

- Precipitation will remain out of the forecast through the next 7 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Deep upper trough currently stretches from the Eastern Great Lakes region down through the Southeast CONUS with strong upper ridging just off of the Southern CA coast. Strong warm advection in the 700-600mb level is developing some light 88d returns across northwest and central KS. However, with such extremely dry low levels, no precip is making it to the ground, with just a mid level cloud deck in place. Surface high will shift southeast today as lee troughing starts to strengthen. Clouds will keep temps today close to seasonal normals with any precip associated with persistent mid level warm advection expected to stay off to the northeast.

Models remain very consistent in continuing to build ridging from Southern CA into the Desert Southwest on Wed, with ridging moving into the Southern Rockies by Thur. This will promote unseasonably warm temperatures for Wed-Sat. Widespread 80s are likely for Thur-Sat with some 90s possibly creeping into our western flank for Fri and especially Sat. Also looking like a few max temp records will be in jeopardy for both Fri and Sat. Pretty decent agreement between the medium range models in a cold front moving through the area Sunday morning, knocking temps down closer to seasonal normals for Sunday and especially Monday. With the better upper support remaining well north of the area, not expecting any precip to accompany the frontal passage.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 544 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain minimal today and tonight.

High and mid clouds will continue to affect the area today and will gradually shift east throughout the day. South and southeast winds will remain in place through most of the day, with a few gusts in the 20-25 mph range possible late this morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds will come down this evening and will turn to the southwest and west later tonight. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in place.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 148 AM CDT Tue Mar 17 2026

Very warm temperatures and low RH's values will bring very high fire danger on Saturday across mainly central KS. Stronger winds will then allow very high fire danger to overspread the entire area for Sunday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.