textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storm chances for mainly southeast Kansas later today, a few strong to marginally severe storms possible

- Increasing severe weather chances look to affect mainly southeast Kansas Wednesday night with the risk of severe weather possibly extending into Thursday morning over southern Kansas

- Dry weather on Friday followed by additional storm chances for the weekend with another round of severe storms possible

DISCUSSION

Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows upper level wave sinking southeast across southern Minnesota/Iowa. This has induced a low jet and moisture transport for elevated showers/storms to develop over central Kansas into northeast Kansas. This activity will spread slowly southeast and linger into the morning hours with a few strong storms capable of producing small hail and heavy downpours. This upper level wave will also push a weak frontal boundary southward across the region where it could become a focus for re-newed storm development over southern Kansas this afternoon/evening. Also seeing a decent signal for continued 700mb warm moist advection over southern Kansas. A few strong to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out over southeast Kansas for late this afternoon/evening.

Wednesday will witness hot, humid, and windy conditions along with afternoon heat indices rising above the century mark for locations along and south of advancing cold front. Models continue to show a strong upper level wave racing southeast across the northern plains, and tracking into the upper Mississippi Valley by Wednesday night. Initial storm development is expected over Missouri in the afternoon where cooler mid-level temperatures will overspread the front. Meanwhile, mid-level temperatures are expected to be much warmer over Kansas and this should prohibit thunderstorm development until late afternoon or evening when convergence along the front increases and some cooling aloft occurs. A very unstable airmass will be in place across the region combined with bulk wind shear vectors being parallel to surface front. This will result in thunderstorms zippering westward from Missouri into southeast Kansas along the frontal boundary in a linear storm mode. Some severe storms are possible in this very unstable/decent wind shear environment for locations east of the Kansas Turnpike. The activity looks to linger over mainly southern Kansas through the overnight and into the morning hours on Thursday. The severe weather chances could extend into Thursday morning across southern Kansas with very buoyant elevated CAPE, (around 50kts of very favorable directional 1-6km bulk shear) combined with steep mid-level lapse rates. This environment could transition to a large hail risk for Thursday morning.

Models in good agreement with strong subsidence overspreading the area for Thursday night into Friday behind the pronounced upper level wave shifting from Iowa into the Ohio valley region. This will lead to dry weather conditions as drier air and surface high pressure build across Kansas. On Saturday, models show upper level flow becoming more zonal with another upper level wave ejecting eastward from the Rockies into Nebraska. This looks to spark off numerous storms across Nebraska with some of this activity spreading southward into central Kansas Saturday night. A cold front looks to push southward into Kansas for Sunday/Sunday night which would become the focus for additional storms to develop. Severe weather will be possible for the weekend given forecast combination of instability/wind shear.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be isolate showers and storms overnight and again late afternoon and early evening Tuesday.

Currently have a few showers and storms developing over western/central KS in an area of increased 850-700mb theta-e advection. The better instability is over western KS, so not expecting any strong or severe storms in our area. As a weak cold front/trough moves through this afternoon, a couple storms will be possible across southern KS. However, there isn't expected to be much coverage so confidence is not high enough to put into TAFs as this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.