textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme grassland fire danger for areas west of a line from Kingman to Hutchinson to Salina this afternoon and early evening.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected Wed-Thu for much of the area.

- More seasonable temperatures and with low probabilities for light precipitation late Fri-early Sat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Abundant mid and high clouds can be seen on water vapor imagery extending from Iowa SSW across Kansas and into the Southwest and beyond into the Pacific. Confidence is high that much of the area will remain cloudy today. Point soundings in south central and southeast KS show a considerable depth of saturation from around H5- H2. HREF neighborhood probabilities in the upper levels supports this with high confidence. The only exception may be a small sliver of central KS late in the day as the Pacific front arrives which has been trending slightly slower. There may still be a narrow window where extreme fire danger develops in the 22Z-02Z timeframe and the red flag warning was expanded eastward only slightly while the Fire weather Watch for much of south central and parts of southeast Kansas was cancelled. Time/height X-sections of wind and mixing layer height would support very strong winds in central KS if the pbl can mix late in the day. RAP/RRFS both support 45-55 knots in the top of the mixed layer but confidence in the depth of the mixed layer remains low due to cloud potential.

Much drier air will overspread the region tonight while light southwesterly winds persist through the day on Wed as shortwave ridging overspreads the area. This will result in above average temperatures once again with highs around 70 for most areas. Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies and over Nebraska as we move through the day on Thursday. This feature will drive a cold front south across the area during the day. The front will shift winds to the northwest and usher in more seasonable air for mid Feb.

Fri-Mon...Seasonable temperatures are anticipated across the area on Friday with light winds as a ridge of high pressure at the sfc is situated over the region. Another shortwave trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies late Friday bringing low probabilities for light wintry precipitation to the area late Friday night into early Saturday. The deterministic GFS continues to be the most aggressive and we are still not expecting any significant impacts from this system at this time. Another cold front is expected to arrive on Sat reinforcing the cooler, seasonable air that was already in place. This seasonable and dry airmass will remain in place on Sunday as high pressure at the sfc builds into the Central Plains. Temperatures are expected to moderate early next week as another mid/upper ridge begins to translate eastward into the central CONUS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Low level wind shear will affect all of the area through the morning hours. Otherwise considerable high cloudiness will stream overhead with increasing southerly winds by late morning and into the afternoon hours. The southerly winds will continue to increase for the afternoon hours with peak gusts in central KS in the 45 knot range while wind direction gradually veers to the southwest or west, especially across central Kansas late in the day. Low level wind shear may return tonight as wind speeds diminish late in the evening.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 157 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Dense mid and high clouds will remain draped across much of the south central and southeast KS today which may limit vertical mixing. This will have an impact on maximum winds in addition to relative humidity and maximum temperatures while limiting fire weather concerns to some degree. We are still expecting a Pacific front to arrive late in the day or early in the evening over central Kansas. This will usher in much drier air and a wind shift to the west. Due to a slower arrival, the Red Flag Warning was extended to 03Z basically along and west of a line from Kingman to Hutchinson to Salina.

Much drier air will overspread the area on Wednesday and Thursday with above average temperatures resulting in a very high grassland fire danger. A cold front will arrive on Thursday shifting winds to the northwest.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CST this evening for KSZ032-033-047>051-067-082.