textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers, possibly a thunderstorm, expected this afternoon into this evening; no strong or severe weather expected

- Frost Advisory in effect for Russell and Lincoln counties Saturday morning

- Benign weather pattern through the weekend before shower and storm chances return early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 128 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

As of 1245 PM Friday afternoon, a deep midlevel low continues to spin across the Great Lakes region and adjacent areas of Canada. A shortwave trough, on the western periphery of the low, was progressing southeast across portions of SD and NE. An attendant, weak, surface trough extends from the mid-MS valley through northern KS. Latest satellite trends reveal an expanding cumulus field across central KS a top a deeply mixed boundary layer through nearly 700 mb. Latest radar analysis reveals a few showers across central KS within the aforementioned cumulus field. In fact, a few lightning strikes have been noted across Osborne and Rooks counties. Midlevel lapse rates are quite meager at 5.5-6 C/km across central and northern KS, resulting in surface based instability around 100 J/kg. As such, we don't anticipate any strong or severe thunderstorm activity this afternoon or this evening. This activity will gradually sink south and southeast throughout the afternoon and evening. While impacts are expected to be quite minimal, isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunderstorms are expected across most of central and south-central KS. All shower activity should dissipate around midnight tonight as the midlevel shortwave trough ejects into the mid-MS valley.

Transitioning into tonight, remnant cloud cover will slowly progress south and southeastward as an area of surface high pressure settles into northern KS. The most likely area for clear skies by dawn Saturday are across central KS. This region stands the greatest potential for temperatures less than 37 degrees with patchy frost. Given this potential, have opted for a Frost Advisory for Russell and Lincoln counties from 4 AM through 8 AM. Transitioning into the upcoming weekend, midlevel heights will increase behind the shortwave trough, yielding a warming trend with highs returning to the 80s by Sunday. The potential for shower and thunderstorm activity will increase Monday through at least Wednesday as a deep southwestern US trough phases with a northern stream trough. The potential for severe weather remains uncertain and trends will need to be monitored over the coming days.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1151 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. A weak cold front will shift winds from the northwest this afternoon, although speeds will remain generally less than 10 kt. In addition, isolated showers are expected to develop across central KS early this afternoon and slowly move southeast throughout the afternoon and evening. Maintained the VCSH mention at all sites with the exception of CNU. The bulk of rain showers should diminish in coverage near 06Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Frost Advisory from 4 AM to 8 AM CDT Saturday for KSZ032-033.