textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Another warm day is in store with afternoon highs in the 90s across southern and southeast Kansas. Portions of southeast Kansas could see heat indices up to 105 this afternoon.

- Very warm temperatures for this time of year continue Thursday through Saturday.

- Another cold front this weekend is currently forecast to bring a cool down along with chances for showers and storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Early this morning, a band of mid-level WAA within an area of modest elevated instability is aiding in producing and maintaining scattered showers and storms extending from northern Missouri, across central Kansas, and into the Oklahoma Panhandle. Most of this activity is likely to remain sub-severe with localized flooding and semi-frequent cloud-to-ground lightning being the primary concerns. As this axis of WAA lifts northward throughout the morning hours, this activity will lift northward with it ending rain chances by early this afternoon. With rain and clouds clearing much of the area (especially south of I-70), afternoon temperatures will surge back into the 90s across southern and southeast Kansas. This warm up is primarily being supported by mid/upper ridging building westward from the southeastern CONUS. Across far southeast Kansas, afternoon highs may reach 100. With dewpoints around 70, heat indices are likely to exceed 105. The ridge will continue to strengthen and expand its influence across the central plains on Thursday. This will lead to another afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Currently, it appears the airmass will be slightly drier, but heat indices will likely reach or exceed 100 across much of the area.

...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

Mid-range guidance continues to show that the mid/upper ridge responsible for the mid-week heat will weaken rather quickly as it get squeezed between a retrograding upper low over the Gulf coastline and the region's next system arriving from out over the western CONUS. Still, it won't weaken enough to prevent another couple of very warm days across the region with highs in the mid to upper 90s. At this time, a cold front is forecast to approach the area by Friday night, and will slowly lumber its way across the area throughout the weekend. Global models have been trending slower with the arrival of the cold front, now having it push through the forecast area late Saturday night. However, global ensembles still seem to be on board with more fall-like air arriving either Sunday or Monday. In addition to the potential for cooler temperatures, periodic chances for showers and storms remain in the forecast from late Friday night through the weekend as the front slowly pushes southward across Kansas.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1251 AM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Showers and storms continue to make their way through portions of the area early this morning. Short-term guidance highlights the potential for additional activity as far north as RSL/SLN prior to sunrise, so SHRA/TSRA was maintained in central KS through the early morning hours. Additionally, IFR/LIFR cigs/vsbys currently observed across the region are expected to continue through sunrise, particularly across central and south central KS. Could see these low cigs dissipate by late morning per the latest guidance, though these may linger into the early afternoon especially in central KS. Otherwise, look for light winds overnight to turn back around to the south by mid morning at all sites, with speeds generally around or below 10 kts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ096-099-100.