textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Very High grassland fire danger is expected mainly across the Flint Hills on Friday afternoon.

- Well-above average temperatures are forecast through Saturday before a cold front moves through late Saturday bringing colder temperatures for Sunday and Monday.

- Precipitation chances increasing late Saturday night into Sunday afternoon with possible chances for wintry precipitation Sunday morning through Sunday night.

- Additional precipitation chances continue into next week with widespread heavy rain chances likely mid work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis shows broad upper-level troughing over the eastern US with upper ridging over the western CONUS. Northwesterly flow aloft continues over the central CONUS. A surface low is positioned over Alberta/Saskatchewan area with surface troughing extending down through the Northern Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley and Central Plains. In our area, relatively light northwesterly to northerly winds continue with high temperatures in the 60s to low 70s.

Upper ridging will continue over the western CONUS keeping the northwesterly flow regime over our area tonight into the weekend. Low-level westerly winds and mixing will aid in warmer temperatures on Friday. Highs are forecast to be in the 70s areawide, which is 20 degrees above normal for late February. These warmer conditions will continue into Saturday with highs ranging from the upper 60s in central KS to the mid 70s in southern KS.

On late Friday into Saturday, a shortwave trough will move into Ontario/the Great Lakes area which will push a deep surface low through Ontario. A cold front will drape down from this low and push through our area late Saturday night before stalling in the Central Plains. WAA is expected to increase above this colder air mass with midlevel lapse rates around 7 C/km, making an isolated shower possible in southern KS near the Oklahoma border on Saturday night into early Sunday morning. WAA will likely continue through Sunday aiding in additional precipitation chances on Sunday afternoon. There still remains a large spread for surface temperatures on Sunday with the ECMWF and GDPS notably warmer than the GFS and NAM. Additionally, the NBM 25th and 75th percentiles for surface temperature have a temperature difference of 10-15 degrees from late Sunday morning to Sunday evening. However, model guidance continues to trend towards colder temperatures on Sunday. Given the WAA between 850-700 mb and colder temperatures, possible chances for wintry precip are increasing especially in central KS where colder temperatures are more likely. Trends with this system will continue to be monitored, stay tuned.

As we move into early next week, flow aloft will become more zonal with embedded ripples ahead of the deeper shortwave trough. These ripples combined with low-level WAA may lead to additional rain chances Monday to Tuesday. On Tuesday, a shortwave trough will move into the Central Rockies which will increase precip chances areawide Tuesday night through Wednesday. Precip will most likely be all rain given the forecast temperature profiles with the possibility for heavy rainfall. PWATs are generally greater than 0.75" with the GFS showing up to 1.2" in eastern KS, which is well-above the maximum PWATs for eastern KS this time of year and could lead to efficient rainfall rates. Stay tuned as this forecast will continue to be refined.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain low over the next 24 hours.

Mostly clear conditions are expected tonight with light and variable winds. West and southwest winds will increase into the 10 to 15 knot range across the area on Friday while VFR prevails across the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 216 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Well-above normal temperatures, low relative humidity, and increased southwesterly winds will lead to Very High grassland fire danger for a brief period on Friday afternoon mainly across the Flint Hills. Critical fire danger or Red Flag conditions are not expected. Grassland fire danger is expected to decrease after Saturday as precipitation chances increase this weekend into next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.