textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Off-and-on showers/storms tonight, gradually exiting to the east Thursday. Pockets of heavy rainfall and localized flooding possible.

- Much cooler air filtering south through Friday and Saturday, with lows Saturday morning falling into the 30s, and frost likely across mainly central KS.

- Warming trend next week, with showers/thunderstorms possible once again by mid-late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

TODAY-THURSDAY: A cutoff low is lifting out of the four-corners region and into the Plains. Ahead of this feature, a surface low has developed over the Central Rockies. Continued rain and storms will impact portions of the forecast area, with the heaviest rainfall expected over south-central and southeastern Kansas where a Flood Watch remains in effect through 18Z Thursday. The heaviest precipitation chances will remain south of the forecast area along the surface boundary. The low pressure will traverse the state on Thursday with rain chances ending quickly behind it. Dense cloud cover will linger over the state today and Thursday, finally clearing on Thursday night from west to east. Under the thick stratus and on and off rain chances, temperatures will remain quite cool. Continued the trend of undercutting NBM highs as we have seem limited diurnal heating so far today. Temperatures today will generally reach into the 50s and 60s, with a couple of 70s in far southeast Kansas. There will be minimal variability in overnight temperatures, with lows generally in the 50s to lower 60s. Highs may be able to rebound slightly on Thursday with temperatures reaching into the 60s and low 70s. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop on Thursday afternoon, lasting into the overnight hours.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: High pressure will begin strengthening behind the exiting low to the east. The tightening pressure gradient across the Plains will lead to breezy conditions on Friday. Northerly to northwesterly winds between 20-25 mph are expected with gusts up to 35 mph possible. As this Canadian high builds into the region, crisp fall temperatures are expected for both Friday and Saturday. Highs each afternoon are expected to reach into the middle to upper 50s. Overnight lows for Friday night into Saturday morning are expected to fall into the 30s areawide as the high pressure is centered over the state. Light winds and clear skies will likely lead to frost concerns, especially in central Kansas.

SUNDAY-NEXT WEEK: Ridging will begin to build into the region over the weekend with temperatures rebounding slightly by Sunday. Highs on Sunday will reach into the middle to upper 60s under mostly clear skies and light winds. On Sunday night into Monday, a weak impulse will eject over the Plains. It is unlikely that this system will carry with it enough moisture to overcome the anomalously dry air mass that will be in place to manufacture any rain chances. It looks like the most likely impacts will be slight increases in cloud cover. Temperatures will then continue to warm into early next week with near normal temperatures expected along with mostly clear conditions. At the tail end of the forecast period for mid next week, model guidance is indicating the development of another western US mid/upper level trough that could usher in additional rain chances. Significant uncertainty remains regarding timing and exact precip chances, we will continue to fine tune the details as we get closer.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Poor aviation conditions with LIFR cigs and lower visibilities due to periods of drizzle will affect much of the region through the night, and linger into the morning hours on Thursday. Occasional thunderstorms could affect mainly southeast Kansas overnight with some heavy rainfall possible. The low clouds will be slow to erode from west to east Thursday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday afternoon for KSZ069>072-082-083- 091>096-098>100.