textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat index values up to 115 this afternoon with the highest values along the KS/OK border

- A few thunderstorms are possible Wednesday morning across north- central KS with additional nocturnal thunderstorm chances Wednesday night through Friday night

- Heat indices above 100 may return this weekend into next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

As of 3AM Tuesday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge continues to reside from the central Rockies into he central/southern Plains. A shortwave trough was sliding through the upper Midwest with an attendant surface trough extending from northern MI through northeast MO and into northern KS. Ahead of the front a warm and moist boundary layer remains in the place with temperatures still in the mid-80s across central and northern KS and dew points in the lower 70s. This frontal zone will continue to sink south through the morning and afternoon. By midday, the front is expected to reside near the KS/OK border, which is a few hours faster than prior model suites suggested. Despite the slightly faster progression, areas generally along and south of Highway 50 will see the overlap of hot temperatures and humid conditions, at least briefly. Heat indices (up to 107 degrees) will peak across portions Reno, Harvey, Kingman, Sedgwick, Butler, Greenwood, Woodson, and Allen counties by early afternoon with improving heat indices into the late afternoon hours. Areas closer to the KS/OK border will see a more-significant overlap of hot temperatures and humid conditions. Latest short term guidance suggests, dew points will remain in the low to mid 70s during the early and mid- afternoon hours. These will overlap with temperatures nearing the 100 degree mark, contributing to heat indices up to 115. Heat indices will improve by early evening as the drier low- level air filters into southern KS. As a result, there hasn't been any changes to the inherited Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning. Aside from the heat, a stray thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out across far southern KS and within the frontal zone. Steepening low-level lapse rates combined with weak convergence along the frontal zone may prove just sufficient for convective initiation. Should a storm develop, brief heavy rainfall and gusty winds will be possible. Again this potential is mainly confined to near the KS/OK border.

Transitioning into tonight, thunderstorms are likely to develop this afternoon within an upslope flow regime across eastern WY. As the evening and overnight progresses, these storms are likely to grow upscale and move into portions of central NE. There remains a slight chance this complex of storms could reach portions of north-central KS after sunrise Wednesday morning.

The potential for nocturnal convection increases late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a strong low-level and midlevel WAA pattern emerges from western NE through portions of central and eastern KS. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may persist through much of the day Thursday, especially across northeast KS where weak WAA will continue.

Another complex of thunderstorm activity is appearing more and more likely late Thursday into Friday. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the central Plains Thursday evening into Thursday night. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along an inverted trough axis across eastern CO/western KS/western NE. As the evening progresses, convection is likely to grow upscale into an MCS and translate eastward within a 35-45 kt LLJ. The greatest storm chances will remain across portions of central and northeast KS. Additional storms are possible Friday night into Saturday morning as the surface trough slides across southeast KS. The core of the midlevel ridge appears to slide back over the central Plains by next weekend. This will likely yield warmer temperatures, heat indices near/above 100 degrees, and minimal rain chances from Saturday afternoon into next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. A cold front will move across the terminals this morning, shifting winds from the northeast at 10-15 kt. Winds will become light and variable after 02Z with speeds generally less than 10 kt.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ067>072-082-083. Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ091>096-098>100.