textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chances for showers and storms later tonight, with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible.

- Additional rain chances return Thursday evening/night. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible along with locally heavy rainfall.

- Dry and hot conditions are expected to take hold beginning Friday and lasting into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis highlight broad zonal flow aloft over the Plains as a mid/upper wave shifts toward the Great Lakes. At the surface, a stalling cold/stationary front spans from central Missouri through southeast Kansas and west along/near the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Amid clearing skies and abundant instability, we continue to see the potential for a few showers and storms near this surface boundary across southern Kansas into the evening hours. Otherwise, scattered showers and storms are expected to develop tonight in response to increasing low/mid-level warm air advection. These should initiate over central and south central Kansas before becoming more numerous as they shift into northeast Kansas and Missouri late. Elevated wind and thermal profiles highlight favorable shear and instability that may allow for a few strong to marginally severe storms overnight.

Per the latest HREF/REFS guidance, much of the forecast area should be dry by early Thursday morning, though a few lingering elevated showers and weak storms may find their way into portions of south central Kansas through the afternoon hours ahead of a secondary mid- level baroclinic zone. With the front progged to linger or even lift slightly to the north throughout the day, high temperatures ranging from the upper 80s across central Kansas to the upper 90s across far southern Kansas are forecast for Thursday afternoon. Another 700 mb baroclinic zone looks to set up later in the evening/overnight hours, though positioning just a bit further south should promote greater coverage across south central and southeast Kansas heading into Friday morning. An environment similar to tonight is forecast with solid elevated shear and instability, so it will be hard to rule out strong to marginally severe storms overnight once again. Additionally, heavy rainfall may cause localized flooding concerns.

Following the departure of storms on Friday, hot and mostly dry conditions are expected to take hold across the forecast area as the mid/upper ridge builds back into the region. Beginning Saturday, mid/long range model consensus indicates high confidence for highs at or near 100 degrees in locations generally along and west of I-135, with locations to the east reaching well into the upper 90s. These hot temperatures are currently expected to persist through at least Tuesday. We could see some isolated rain chances throughout this extended period as a few ripples in mid-level flow ride the top of the ridge and track across the Central Plains, though most of the area should remain rain free.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1215 PM CDT Wed Aug 5 2026

IFR/LIFR ceilings should gradually improved this afternoon, lingering the longest for central Kansas locations. Showers with minimal impacts will continue across southeast Kansas for the next couple hours. Then, MVFR ceilings are expected once again across central Kansas after 08Z. Some shower activity is expected overnight again, but overall impacts are expected to remain minimal with uncertainty on exact placement.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.