textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Morning storms generally east of I-135 with some strong to marginally severe storms possible.

- Excessive heat quickly builds back in starting Saturday and lasting through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Storms developed prior to midnight over the Flint Hills in an area of increasing 850-700mb theta-e advection. Storms look to be rooted somewhere in the 800-700mb ranged which would give them about 2,000J/kg of CAPE to work with and around 30-35kts of effective shear. So some hail in the dime to quarter size and heavy rain look to be the main threats this morning. Showers/storms will linger through at least 15z over the Flint Hills/se KS and will start to move out of the forecast area in the 15-16z time frame. Even with a boundary over southern KS this afternoon, once storms push south, no additional convection is anticipated for the remainder of the day.

As shortwave trough tracks from the Upper Mississippi Valley into the Great Lakes region, the upper ridge centered over the Four Corners region will start to slowly build east to start the weekend. This will allow a warming trend to commence as much warmer 850mb temps start to creep into the forecast area. While a few locations west of I-135 will likely hit 100 on Sat, most of the area is expected to hit the century mark on Sun. Not much is expected to change through Tue, as the upper ridge remains from the Southern Plains through the Central Great Basin. This will continue to promote highs in the 100-105 range for much of the forecast area. If there's any positive with this stretch of extreme heat, it's that dewpoints are expected to generally be in the upper 50s and low 60s when our max temps occur. This will keep the heat indices from getting too out of control.

There is decent model agreement that we will get back into more of a northwest flow regime for Wed into Thu as a series of upper impulses track from MB/SK and down into the Great Lakes region. This will allow a boundary to sink down into the Plains, increasing storm chances and bringing some relief from the extreme heat.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Main aviation concern will be storms this morning.

Storms developed a few hours ago in an area of increasing 850-700mb theta-e advection. This activity is expected to persist over the next several hours with the Flint Hills into southeast KS having the best chance to see storms. Confidence is slightly less for areas along and west of I-135. So for now will hit KCNU the hardest and run with some prob30s for KICT- KSLN- KHUT. Storm coverage should start to push southeast in the 13-15z time frame. Outside of morning storms, VFR conditions are expected through the remainder of this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.