textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms late this morning through the afternoon and again Sunday; no severe weather expected

- Temperatures near 100 degrees are possible Monday-Tuesday with heat index values up to 110 degrees, especially across southern KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

As of 2 AM Saturday morning, an expansive midlevel ridge axis remains across the central and northern Rockies. This ridge axis will gradually deamplify and progress eastward today as a shortwave trough traverses the Pacific Northwest. The overall airmass remains unchanged from Saturday and should result in another afternoon with high temperatures in the low to mid 90s. The tropical-like airmass will result in little, if any mixed-layer inhibition by late morning/midday. This should allow for isolated shower and thunderstorm development across eastern KS. The PW axis (up to 2") will remain generally southeast of the KS Turnpike and should be the location of greatest shower/storm coverage this afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will quickly dissipate with sunset this evening.

The ridge axis will re-amplify across the central/northern Rockies into the central/southern Plains Sunday-Tuesday. The overall tropical-like airmass will remain in place through Sunday afternoon with additional isolated showers and thunderstorms possible area-wide. SREF/EPS/GEFS mean 850 mb temperature anomalies are forecast to range from 4-8 C Monday- Tuesday. This will result in afternoon temperatures approaching 100 degrees. Dew points will remain in the 60s to near 70, resulting in heat index values around 105 degrees Monday afternoon with the warmest across southeast KS. A shortwave trough is progged to dive southeast from the northern Plains late Monday into Tuesday, shunting a cold front into the area Tuesday. The exact timing of the front will prove critical to temperatures Tuesday afternoon. Areas south of the front will see temperatures approach 100 (heat index values up to 110 degrees), whereas post-frontal areas will see temperatures remain in the low 90s. The front will clear the entire area by Wednesday with highs in the low 90s area- wide.

Mid to long range guidance is suggesting northwest midlevel flow may remain across the central Plains through the mid to latter portions of next week. This may allow for more- widespread rain chances to return to the area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 509 AM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Southerly winds will remain generally near or below 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected from late this morning through the early evening. Due to the sparse coverage of showers and thunderstorms, no SHRA or TSRA mention has been introduced at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.