textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild and dry weather through most of the upcoming week.

- Very high grassland fire danger expected today through Thursday, with extreme grassland fire danger on Tuesday for areas along and west of the Flint Hills.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A mid/upper ridge was situated over the central CONUS early this morning while a robust LLJ was located along an axis from the TX panhandle NNE into south central NE. The core of strong winds will gradually shift eastward into eastern Kansas as we move into the afternoon hours. A sprawling sfc trough across the Central High Plains will keep the strongest pressure gradient in eastern Kansas today where gusty southwest winds are anticipated. Much above average temperatures will prevail today as the H85 thermal ridge expands eastward across the area and forecast highs were trended upward as a result.

A negatively tilted trough will emerge over the Northern Plains on Tuesday allowing a Pacific front to race eastward across the Central Plains. Much drier air is anticipated in the wake of this boundary with strong west to southwesterly winds developing in it's wake. This will allow highs to climb into the 70s and 80s and bring critical fire weather conditions to much of the region. The Fire Weather Watch was expanded further east on Tuesday.

Shortwave ridging will return to the area on Wed as another mid/upper trough moves into the Rockies. A tight pressure gradient will keep breezy southwest winds in the forecast with above average temperatures prevailing once again. Most locations will see highs in the 70s.

As we move into Thursday, a mid/upper trough is progged to emerge from the Rockies and move over Central Plains of Nebraska. This will allow a frontal boundary to move southward shifting winds to the northwest and ushering in more seasonable air late in the period. Better chances for light precipitation are expected to remain north of the area at this time. A wide range of temperatures are expected with highs ranging from the 40s in central KS to around 70 in far southeast KS.

Fri-Sun...A progressive zonal flow is anticipated in the wake of Thursday's shortwave trough. This is expected to result in mostly dry and seasonable weather conditions over the upcoming weekend but we maintain a low pops Fri-Sat given some lingering uncertainty.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1127 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Low level wind shear will affect central/south central Kansas during the overnight and early morning hours. South winds will increase over southern Kansas for late this morning into the afternoon, then winds will diminish around sunset. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail across the entire region over the next 24hrs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 107 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Very high grassland fire danger is expected across portions of south central and southeast KS this afternoon due to gusty southwest winds and above average temperatures.

For Tuesday, continued gusty winds, above average temperatures, and low relative humidity will result in extreme grassland fire danger for areas along and west of the Flint Hills, where a Fire Weather Watch is in effect. Very high grassland fire danger will return during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday.