textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Near to above normal temperatures through Thursday

- Strong cold front arrives Thursday night plunging temperatures into the single digits/teens for Friday through Monday morning; wind chills as cold as -10 to -20

- Accumulating snow Friday afternoon/night through Saturday night; several inches expected, especially along and south of Highway 56

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

As of 2 PM Wednesday afternoon, longwave midlevel troughing remains across the eastern CONUS with a shortwave trough sliding across the mid-MO valley. This shortwave trough will shunt the next cold front through the area this evening into tonight. Overnight lows will range from the upper teens across central KS to the lower 20s elsewhere. An area of surface high pressure will settle into the region Thursday morning, yielding light winds with temperatures reaching the 40s by afternoon.

The main concern over the next 7 days continues to be the arrival of an Arctic airmass early Friday and into early next week. A strong shortwave trough is poised to eject across the Great Lakes late Thursday into Friday, plunging the Arctic airmass across the Plains. Friday morning temperatures will range from the single digits across central KS to the teens across southern KS. Factoring in a northern breeze up to 30 mph will create wind chill values as cold as -15. The cold plunge will continue into Friday afternoon and Saturday as NBM probabilities continue to increase for daytime highs remaining in the single digits and teens. Friday's probabilities for temperatures remaining below 20 degrees range from near 50% along the OK border to near 100% along I-70. In fact, probabilities remain greater than 70% across central KS for Friday's high temperatures remaining less than 10 degrees. The probabilities for high temperatures remaining less than 10 degrees expand areawide to 70- 100% for Saturday. Temperatures will begin to moderate slightly Sunday with a 70-100% chance for temperatures remaining below 20 degrees. In regards to overnight lows, NBM probabilities range from 40-70% for temperatures less than 0 degrees Saturday, Sunday, and Monday mornings. Factoring in the continued north wind will create wind chill values as cold as -20 each morning. An Extreme Cold Watch has been hoisted for all of central, south-central, and southeast KS from Friday morning through Monday morning.

In regards to precipitation chances, the approach of a western CONUS trough will strengthen a surface trough across the high Plains Friday. Forecast soundings reveal long, veering hodographs across much of the Plains suggesting increasing low and midlevel WAA. An impressively dry boundary layer, characterized of dew point depressions on the order of 25-35 degrees may delay snow onset times Friday afternoon. The strengthening WAA will result in a gradual expansion of snowfall late Friday afternoon and evening with wetbulb saturation occurring across much the area by late Friday evening. Furthermore, a shortwave trough passage across the Great Lakes will strengthen a midlevel jet streak from the upper Midwest through the northeast US late Friday into Saturday. This additional forcing will expand snowfall Friday night through Saturday. There remains the potential for a coupled jet pattern to emerge across the area Saturday as the western CONUS trough ejects into the southern Plains with the midlevel jet streak advancing from west TX into southeast OK, placing central, south-central, and southeast KS within the left exit region. By Saturday night, the best forcing for ascent will exit the area from west to east, ending snowfall with its progression.

Now for the main question, how much snowfall can be expected? This particular setup is quite unique with an anomalously cold airmass. That being said, forecast soundings continue to reveal a deep isothermal layer throughout the dendritic growth zone (from 1-4km) late Friday through much of the day Saturday. This combined with the bitterly cold temperatures will support above climatology snow to liquid ratios. Latest NBM 25th to 75th percentile guidance have trended greater for snow-to-liquid now ranging from 17-20:1. Confidence continues to increase with regards to QPF amounts and locations. Latest ensemble guidance remains aligned with areas across southern KS receiving the greatest QPF. NBM 25-75th QPF spread range from 0.4-0.8" across southern KS to roughly 0.3-0.6" along I-70. Factoring in these favorable snow-to-liquid ratios has resulted in a notable uptick in forecast snow totals. Areas across southern KS are now forecast to receive 5 to 10" with a decrease in totals as you approach I-70. The greatest confidence for Winter Storm Warning criteria exceedance extends from roughly Highway 56 (Barton to Chase counties) and south. As such, the Winter Storm Watch has been expanded to account for this increased confidence. A further northward expansion is certainly possible over the next day or 2. Stay tuned for forecast refinements over the coming days.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

VFR conditions are expected at all sites through the end of the period. Westerly winds this afternoon will gradually weaken this evening and turn to the north and then east by early Thursday morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Cold Watch from Friday morning through Monday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Saturday night for KSZ047-050>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.