textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and storms possible later today into the evening across southern Kansas. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible.

- Mostly dry for the upcoming week with seasonable temperatures through at least Wednesday.

- Slight warming trend to close out the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 228 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis depict mid/upper ridging over the western CONUS as an MCV tracks eastward across northern Oklahoma. At the surface, a frontal boundary spans from northern Oklahoma through southeast Kansas and into the Ohio River Valley. This boundary is expected to serve as the focus for thunderstorm development later today as it shifts southward. As such, thinking remains that the best storm chances will remain in Oklahoma, but wouldn't be surprised to see isolated showers and storms in far southern Kansas later this afternoon into the evening amid a buoyant and mostly uncapped airmass. With 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE and around 20 kts of effective-layer shear, the strongest storms will likely be capable of gusty winds and small hail, and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible with PWATs in the 1.8-2" range along the Kansas-Oklahoma border. Should storms manage to develop, most activity should finish shortly after midnight as the frontal boundary continues its shift to the south.

PRECIPITATION:

Model prognosis indicates continued building of the mid/upper ridge over the Plains and to the north through next week. This will promote mostly dry conditions across the forecast area over the same timeframe. One feature that may throw a wrench into this dry scenario may arrive mid-week, with global models indicating a weak, retrograding upper low moving into the region on the southern periphery of the ridge on Wednesday. Associated height falls amid ample instability and modest deep-layer shear may allow for isolated showers and storms across locations primarily along and east of the Flint Hills, though better chances look to reside across the Ozarks at this moment in time. This track may change in the coming days, so upcoming forecast cycles may need to keep an eye on this as additional information becomes available.

TEMPERATURES:

Seasonable temperatures are expected across the area to start the week, with highs near 90 degrees and lows in the upper 60s forecast through Wednesday. Southward building of the aforementioned ridge will promote a slight warming trend to close out the week, with highs in the middle to upper 90s forecast by Friday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions with light winds are expected today for all sites with no impacts forecast. A few showers or storms may form along the KS/OK border but these should stay south of KICT/KCNU.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.