textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms today, especially for areas west of I-135 as activity approaches from western KS.

- Large complex of storms is expected to move out of western KS Wednesday evening, tracking across much of the area late Wednesday night through Thu morning. Large hail, damaging winds and flooding will be possible.

- Continued cool with much hotter temperatures anticipated for the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 256 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

We remain in the same pattern we have been over the last few days, with upper ridging over the southwest CONUS through southern TX, with a shortwave trough tracking through the Southern Canadian Provinces. This setup results in unseasonably strong mid/upper flow through the Rockies and into the Plains. Surface stationary front is currently located down across Northern TX.

Storms developed over eastern CO Mon afternoon and what is left of them have been slowly tracking southeast into western KS overnight. This area of convection is being maintained by strong 850mb theta-e advection. Meanwhile, showers and storms are also tracking across west-central Nebraska and are the result of strong 700mb warm advection. The main question for today will be where the convection over western KS tracks and especially how far east storms make it. 850mb jet will start to veer over the next several hours which should keep the more robust redevelopment on the southwest flank of the precip. Current thinking is that these early morning storms will try and stay closer to the better instability, which would be just west of our forecast area through at least the morning hours. Have less confidence on how the convection over Nebraska will behave, but feel that at least northern KS may have a chance to see some precip from this activity today. There will be enough CAPE above 850mb for a few elevated storms to potentially produce some large hail today.

Confidence is low regarding pops for tonight, but feel with mid level baroclinic zone passing through, it's worth still keeping some storm chances around. We may also once again see some storms track out of eastern CO and into western KS tonight, that may try and affect our western flank. We may see somewhat of a lull on Wed before MCS activity significantly ramps up for Wed night.

There is good model agreement that a more significant impulse will lift out of the Desert Southwest and into the Central Great Basin by Wed afternoon and out into the High Plains by Wed night. In response, impressive low level jet will setup with strong convergence into the western KS and western Nebraska. This will likely result in one or more large MCSs tracking through KS/Nebraska Wed night through Thu morning. Hail and especially damaging winds will be likely with any MCS that moves across late Wed night into Thu. In addition, high rainfall rates will also be likely which may lead to flooding. There will likely be some lingering convection during the day Thu behind the MCS, especially across southern KS. Will also keep precip chances around for Fri as another upper impulse quickly moves across the area.

We should finally start to see a decrease in shower and storm chances for the weekend, as a deep upper low digs across the Northern intermountain/Great Basin, which will lift the better storm chances north of the forecast area.

Still have high confidence that below normal temps will remain through Fri with a significant warm-up for the weekend. By Sun, we could be looking at highs around 100 for areas west of I-135.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 629 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances today and tonight.

Storms have been ongoing across western KS and western Nebraska over the last several hours in an area of strong 850-700mb moisture transport. The main question will be how far east/southeast this activity can make it. For now will mention storms at KRSL-KGBD-KHUT with lower confidence for the other sites. However, wouldn't be shocked if thunder is added at other sites as the day goes on. While there will be chances for storms tonight, confidence is too low to mention in TAFs at this time, mainly due to inconsistency with models.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.