textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, near normal temperatures expected today and Monday.

- Brief warm-up on Tuesday, followed by seasonable temperatures for the end of the week.

- Slight rain chances are possible each night with more widespread rain chances expected Wednesday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 305 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

Currently, the ridge is centered over the Southeastern US with the ridge axis extending northward into the Great Lakes. Broad troughing is digging into the northern US from the Canadian Prairies. A surface front extends generally along Hwy 50, though the mid-level baroclinic zone is located further north along I-70. It is in this corridor that we're also seeing anomalously high PWATs. As the LLJ increased overnight, storms fired along the nose of the jet and quickly formed into a bowing MCS that propagated east- northeast along the mid-level baroclinic zone. As of 245AM, this segment is pushing out of the forecast area with stratiform rain and lightning lingering in its wake. This stratiform activity will linger across central Kansas through daybreak before diminishing and pushing east out of the region.

Through the rest of today, as an upper level trough continues to traverse the Canadian Prairies and the northern tier of the US, the ridge will be squashed further south. The stationary boundary that has been draped across the state is finally pushing southward across the state as a cold front. Early this morning, winds have turned northward across much of central Kansas, but the widespread "cooler" temperatures will lag behind the boundary slightly. Central and portions of south-central Kansas can expect more seasonable temperatures (upper 80s, lower 90s) this afternoon, but temperatures in the upper 90s to around 100 will linger for the far southern counties in the forecast area. A few showers or storms are possible across central Kansas this afternoon along a remnant outflow boundary from the overnight MCS, widespread convection is not anticipated. Then, just behind the front in southern Kansas later tonight into Monday morning, moisture will linger allowing for a few isolated showers and sub-severe storms to develop near the frontal boundary. Drier air will begin to filter into the region later on Monday with widespread upper 80s and 90s for the forecast area on Monday afternoon.

Then by Tuesday, the trough will dig into the Great Lakes region and the northeastern tier of the US and ridging will begin to build back in over the Plains from the west. We will see temperatures respond accordingly with upper 90s and lower 100s expected areawide on Tuesday. The widespread heat will be short-lived as a shortwave will sweep across the Plains on Wednesday. The placement of the corresponding surface boundary will lead to cooler temperatures Wednesday afternoon across central Kansas, with 100s across southern portions of the state. POPs increase for the region on Wednesday night with the approach/passage of the front.

Seasonably mild temperatures behind the front, along with a drier air mass, are then expected for Thu/Fri. For the tail end of the forecast period, models are suggesting we may see the ridge try to build back in over the region from the west. Currently maintaining seasonably warm temperatures for day 7 (Saturday), but this trend could lead to more widespread heat beyond the forecast time frame.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 620 AM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

A frontal boundary is sweeping across the state turning winds out of the north. The boundary will stall over southeast KS through the morning hours, leading to light and variable winds for CNU before becoming northerly after 18Z. Winds will become northeasterly for all sites after 00Z.

Rain and storms are expected to develop along and just north of the frontal boundary overnight in southern Kansas. At this time, guidance suggest impacts will remain south of all TAF sites. Will continue to monitor, as shifts in the boundary placement could affect rain/storm impacts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.