textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will linger across southern Kansas into this evening. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

- Chances for rain showers and storms will return Tuesday and continue through late next week.

- More seasonable temperatures are anticipated for Sunday and into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

An upper trough is currently over the Northern and Central Plains with some scattered storms across parts of south-central KS and southeast KS. A weak cold front remains over far southeast KS. A chance for showers and storms will continue into late this afternoon and evening across portions of southern Kansas. These chances will diminish into tonight as this upper trough moves east into the Mississippi Valley late tonight. A few storms will be possible along and south of Highway 50 as instability values are up to 1000 J/kg. Strong to severe storms are not expected with this activity given the relatively weak wind shear and mid-level lapse rates around 6.5 C/km. Some showers and storms could have locally heavy rainfall as PWATs remain above the 75th percentile for this time of year with values generally greater than 1.25 inches in southern KS and values close to 1.5 inches in southeast KS.

For Sunday, upper ridging will build into the Plains as the aforementioned upper trough continues to move into the Great Lakes area. This will promote mostly dry conditions across our area. A warming trend is expected as heights start to rise resulting in thickness increasing. High temperatures are forecast to rise into the low 80s across the area with locations in central KS approaching the mid 80s. For Sunday night, a slight chance (less than 20%) for showers and storms is possible in central KS as model guidance hints at 700 mb WAA combined with an upper wave moving out of eastern Wyoming into South Dakota and Nebraska. If a storm were to develop, strong gusty winds cannot be ruled out given steep low- level lapse rates and guidance suggesting 1200 J/kg of DCAPE. Severe storms are not anticipated given instability is progged to be under 1000 J/kg and deep layer wind shear around 30 kts.

As we continue into Monday/Memorial Day, upper ridging will continue over the Plains with dry conditions expected across the area. Heights and thickness will continue to rise/increase with high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s which is close to normal for this time of year. Some locations in central KS will likely approach 90 on Monday afternoon.

Periodic rain showers and storms may return to the forecast on Tuesday and continue through much of the week as weak shortwave troughs eject out into the Plains ahead of a deeper upper trough over the western CONUS. Given the weak upper level flow progged from model guidance, severe weather looks to remain very low. For temperatures, highs are progged to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s through much of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 621 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

Showers will continue across portions of southeast Kansas this afternoon and evening before departing into Missouri over the next few hours. That being said, widespread VFR conditions are expected to persist across the entire forecast area over the next 24 hours. A brief period of MVFR cigs are possible across far southeast Kansas early Sunday morning, but this should be fairly short-lived.

Winds throughout the TAF period will remain at or below 15 knots out of the south and east across the forecast area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.