textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler temperatures and gusty north will will prevail for today

- Very High to Extreme Fire Danger is expected for Thursday with strong southwest winds and warmer temperatures, a Fire Weather Watch has been hoisted

- Confidence is increasing for dry weather conditions to continue for several days across the region, as longer range models show a upper level weather pattern change that becomes less favorable for precipitation

DISCUSSION

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Cooler conditions along with gusty north winds will be a dramatic change from yesterday's very warm temperatures over southern Kansas. Meanwhile, the upper level weather system that brought all the showers/storms to the area last night will push a strong cold front well south of the Gulf states for tonight into Thursday. This will shove all the rich low level moisture well south into the Gulf of Mexico and it will take several days to recover/return anytime soon for Kansas. As a result, a dry weather pattern is likely to prevail for several days across the central plains. Heading into Thursday, HREF probabilities continue to increase for 850mb wind speeds of 40kts or greater to occur during the afternoon hours on Thursday. The combination of tightening surface pressure gradient and deeper mixing of the atmosphere tapping into those stronger 850mb winds will create strong southwest winds during the day on Thursday. Wind advisory levels could be attained across central and south central Kansas.

A upper level wave travel southeast across the northern plains into the Great Lakes region Thursday night. This will push a frontal boundary southward across the central plains for Friday and will come through dry with no moisture available. Model ensembles continue to show a well pronounced and fleet-footed upper level wave moving across the central plains on Sunday, and under going explosive surface cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes region. This will push colder air southward across Kansas for late Saturday night through the day on Sunday. The gusty north winds will make conditions feel colder with below normal temperatures continuing through Monday. The cold air looks to be short-lived as long range models show an amplification of a upper level ridge pattern over the Rockies gradually shifting east into the central plains for Tuesday and Wednesday. This pattern shift strongly favors a warmer than normal temperatures and dry weather conditions.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Low clouds(MVFR category) will linger over southeast Kansas this morning then should gradually rise above MVFR cigs by this afternoon. Gusty northwest winds will affect the entire region for the morning through the afternoon hours today. VFR conditions expected through the night with winds diminishing around sunset.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 308 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Very high fire danger will affect central Kansas this afternoon with gusty north winds and dry air. Thursday remains the day of focus for dangerous fire weather conditions. Very strong southwest winds, warmer temperatures, and lower relative humidity levels will create Very High to Extreme fire danger across central and south central Kansas. Southwest wind gusts of 35 to 45 mph at times will impact the Fire Weather Watch area. Any fire that ignites will have HIGH potential to turn into a wildfire and be nearly impossible to control. Like we mentioned yesterday models are still showing signs of high clouds moving across the region on Thursday. If those high clouds become thicker it would hinder our GOES satellite technology full capabilities to detect grassland wildfires compared to clear sky days.

We could see very high fire danger materialize again for Sunday afternoon with strong north winds, however that fire weather risk will depend on the arrival time of colder air. If the colder air moves in sooner this could lower the fire weather risk into the high category.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.