textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain and storms will come to an end across southeast Kansas this morning with lingering flooding remaining a concern.

- Additional hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible this afternoon into tonight, but widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected.

- Pattern change anticipated this weekend, lasting through most of next week. This will bring much hotter and drier weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

TODAY/TONIGHT:

Currently, mid/upper level zonal flow is in place across the region with the forecast area on the nose of the LLJ. At the surface, a stationary boundary is draped across the southeastern Kansas. Well above normal PWATs (1.5" +) are located across much of the Central Plains with portions of southeast Kansas seeing PWATs in excess of 2 inches. Persistent convection is being observed just along and north of this stationary boundary. These storms have been efficient rainfall producers with rainfall rates exceeding 1-2"/hr at times. As convection continues to work over the same area, instability is decreasing and additional development looks unlikely. As such, rain and storms will gradually push off to the east, shifting the heavy rain/flooding threat into southeast Kansas through the early morning hours. Storms are expected to come to an end shortly after daybreak.

A lull in convective activity is expected through the rest of the morning and into the early afternoon hours. By early afternoon, instability will be on the increase along the stationary boundary across southern and southeast Kansas. Between 2000-3000 J/kg of MUCAPE will support a few strong to severe storms in our southeast Kansas counties by late afternoon through the evening hours with gusty winds being the main threat. Additional showers/storms will be possible during the overnight hours across south-central Kansas with the development of the LLJ and marginal instability. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity, though small hail and locally heavy rain will be possible.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK:

A strong upper level ridge will build over the region this weekend, with the ridge axis shifting to our east for the upcoming week. This will support dry weather and high temperatures in the middle to upper 90s through the end of the period.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

LOW CLOUDS: Expect MVFR ceilings to gradually climb to above 2000 ft AGL as the afternoon progresses. However, with diurnal cooling and moisture advection overnight, expect sub-2000 ft AGL MVFR to possibly IFR ceilings to fill back in later tonight and persist into Saturday morning.

THUNDERSTORMS: Late afternoon and evening scattered thunderstorms are expected over far southern-southeast KS and northern Oklahoma, with this activity likely remaining well south of ICT and just south of CNU. Later this evening and overnight, we are expecting a gradual uptick in scattered thunderstorms further west-northwest across portions of central, southern, and eastern KS, as 850-700 warm advection and moisture transport commences. Included PROB30 groups for most TAF sites to account for this threat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.