textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional rounds of rain showers for Thursday-Saturday night

- Dry weather looks to prevail for Sunday through Wednesday next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Current satellite water vapor imagery shows another jet streak diving southward on the backside of the upper trough across the southwestern states. This will cause the upper trough to deepen and remain over the southwestern states for today through Friday. Meanwhile a couple upper level short waves will then rotate through the main trough axis and bring additional rounds of precipitation to Kansas for Thursday-Saturday. The first short wave will bring the next round of rain to Kansas for late tonight into Thursday followed by a lull in the activity. A second short wave then brings another round of rain showers to the region for late Thursday night into Friday followed by the main upper trough finally ejecting eastward into the southern plains by Saturday. Friday has the better chances of more widespread rainfall especially across southeast Kansas. Instability will be lacking during these periods so expecting mainly periods of rain showers with a few embedded storms possibly affecting southeast Kansas. The axis of heavy rainfall and associated surface frontal boundary will remain well southeast of the region for today-Saturday, therefore not anticipating heavy rainfall to impact our region. There is still a chance for rain mixing with snow Saturday night, however impacts from this still look minimal.

Dry and quiet weather will be in store for Sunday-Wednesday as models are in good agreement showing an upper level pattern change with a transition to a northwest flow regime. This will sweep out all the low level moisture and result in dry weather across the region. A frontal boundary looks to push southward across the central plains on Monday but lack of moisture will be lacking, therefore not expecting any precipitation to occur. Temperatures will gradually warm from Monday through Wednesday.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF period. There will be some vicinity showers after 15z Thursday at all sites except SLN. Ceilings begin dropping to MVFR after 00z Friday and continue to drop to IFR at the end of this period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Fire weather concerns will remain low for the next 7 days with cooler temperatures, periods of rain for Thursday-Saturday, and lighter wind speeds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.