textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm temperatures will be in place for Thursday through the weekend, with highs 10-20 degrees above normal. A few records will even be possible, especially for Friday and Saturday.

- Storm chances will return for Thursday and remain through the weekend. However, considerable uncertainty remains due to capping issues and low confidence on boundary placement.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Currently, the ridge axis is positioned across the High Plains with the trough exiting to the east over the Great Lakes and a shortwave is ejecting into the Northern Rockies. At the surface, a broad high pressure is situated to our east leading to southeasterly winds across the forecast area. A low pressure is deepening over the Northern High Plains ahead of that mid/upper level shortwave. We may be able to see an isolated shower/storm in eastern Kansas over the next few hours as moisture increases ahead of the next system with strong southerly flow. Severe weather is not anticipated with this activity. Winds will continue to increase across the forecast area through the morning and early afternoon hours and turn more southerly due to the strengthening pressure gradient between the high pressure to the east and a strengthening low pressure to the north and west. Look for southerly winds later this morning to reach between 15-25 mph with gusts reaching 30-35 mph.

A mid/upper level trough will traverse the northern tier of the country through the rest of today that will send a weak boundary towards KS later today. Ahead of the boundary, widespread 90 degree temperatures are anticipated under the ridge with strong southerly winds. As the weak front interacts with over 2000 J/kg CAPE late this afternoon/evening, it could lead to some isolated storm chances for central into eastern Kansas. There remains some uncertainty with overall development and coverage of storms since the forcing is relatively weak, we may struggle to break the cap. However, with shear values in the 30-40 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, large hail and isolated strong wind gusts could be possible if a storm or two manages to develop.

By Friday, we will be positioned under zonal flow, but with above normal heights. A similar storm setup is in place for Friday with rich moisture in eastern Kansas and a dryline in northern OK/southern KS. A stationary boundary will be draped across the central part of the state. Storms look to initially fire along the dryline near the KS/OK border as well as further north across NE/IA where overall better forcing exists. Once again, there is a lot of uncertainty on overall coverage of storms across our forecast area as forcing is relatively weak in central into southeastern Kansas.

For Saturday/Saturday night, significant low-level moisture will be in place over the region along with ample instability. A dryline across western Kansas may allow for a few scattered showers and storms to develop during the afternoon. However, more widespread chances for storm development is likely further north, closer to the boundary. And again, due to weak overall dynamics, confidence in widespread storm development is low over the forecast area. A deep trough looks to move into the Rockies on Sunday with an associated surface low and cold front sweeping over the Plains on Monday. Additional storm development is possible again late Sunday with weak forcing, but better storm chances for our area come with the passage of the next system on Monday.

Very warm temperatures will be able to continue for the next few days with above normal heights over the region, topping out in the 80s and 90s each afternoon through Monday. Behind Monday's system, temperatures for early/mid next week look to dip closer to normal with highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the period. Southerly winds will continue to gust near 30 kt through the afternoon. A few storms are likely to develop this afternoon across western KS and progress east into the late afternoon and evening hours. The coverage of thunderstorm activity is expected to remain isolated. As a result, confidence is only high enough to introduce PROB 30 mentions at the central/south-central KS sites. Wind speeds will decrease this evening with the central KS sites becoming light and variable. South-central and southeast KS sites will become southerly at 10-15 kt. LLWS concerns increase at CNU after 04Z as a 45-50 kt LLJ near 2kft increase. LLWS diminish by 13Z as the LLJ weakens.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 312 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Very High Grassland Fire Danger is possible across portions of central and south-central Kansas this afternoon. Strong southerly winds with gusts between 30-35 mph, anomalously warm temperatures in the middle 90s, and RH values in the 20-25% range will lead to very high fire danger.

Similar conditions are expected again on Sunday with strong winds, warm temperatures, and very dry conditions. Very high fire danger is expected to return west of I-135 on Sunday afternoon.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.