textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe storms likely Friday afternoon and evening along a strong cold front.

- Much colder temperatures for Saturday and especially Sunday morning, with many locations seeing lows in the 30s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper trough rotating across the Northern Intermountain into the Northern Rockies with a surface low slowly strengthening across eastern WY into eastern CO. Meanwhile, a stationary front/dryline extends from Northeast KS to near Great Bend and down through western OK.

Dryline will work back west tonight as low pressure continues to strengthen over the Central High Plains. Cold front will then start to surge southeast early Fri morning and by 15z Fri will extend from just west of Salina to just east of Dodge City. Storms are expected to develop along the front as it surges south, likely in the 1-3pm time frame, generally along or just northwest of the KS Turnpike, very close to Wichita. Once storms develop they will continue developing off to the southeast along the cold front. How far west storms form will be dependent on how early they develop. The earlier they form, the more likely areas further west will be impacted. Current thinking is that the cold front and associated storms will exit southeast KS between 10pm and midnight.

Storms will have plenty of instability to work with when they first develop, with most guidance showing between 2500-3000J/kg of MLCAPE. For the first few hours after storm development, shear vector orientation would support some qusi-discrete storms. However, after 21z, shear vectors become more parallel to the cold front which should result in lower chances for anything discrete. So large hail and damaging winds will be the primary threat through this event, with a small window at the onset for a tornado or two.

Unseasonably cold airmass will follow behind the front with lows in the 30s and low 40s for Sat morning with slightly colder readings for Sun morning. It's not out of the question that we may end up needing a frost of freeze headline, especially for Sunday morning. Took a quick glace at records and most are in the 20s or around 30 degrees. So currently think we are not looking at any low temp records.

To start off the work week we are looking at a closed upper low just off of the Northern CA coast with weak upper ridging over the Northern/Central Plains. There is some decent agreement on a weak southern stream impulse lifting across TX/OK but will stay far enough south to limit any precip chances. Precip is forecast to remain out of the forecast through Wed as the upper low/trough remains out west. As far as temps go, we look to quickly get back to above normal by Sunday afternoon with highs in the 70s and 80s likely for both Tue and Wed.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1233 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Low ceilings have dissipated at KHUT and KICT early this afternoon however low ceilings will continue at KCNU for a few more hours before dissipating. Once those low clouds dissipate VFR conditions will prevail through the evening. Southerly winds will be breezy this afternoon and remain breezy through the night at most terminals. Overnight winds approximately 1500-2000 ft AGL will really ramp up to around 50-55 kts. So despite the breezy surface conditions winds that strong aloft could still lead to a period of LLWS at most terminals overnight into the early morning hours before winds aloft begin to diminish. Towards sunrise on Friday morning, as moisture lifts north into the forecast area, another round of low ceilings are expected to impact at least KCNU but spread as far west as KICT and KHUT. If these ceilings develop IFR to MVFR ceilings will last through the late morning hours tomorrow. A cold front will then begin to move south through central Kansas late tomorrow morning switching winds around to the north behind it and leading to thunderstorm development along and ahead of it as we go into the afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 211 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Very high fire danger will be in place across central KS for Friday, Monday and Wednesday.

A brief period of very high fire danger is expected on Friday afternoon across central KS as winds flip around to the northwest and gust to around 35mph. Above normal temperatures gusty south winds will then elevate the grassland fire danger again for Mon and Wed across central KS into the very high category.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047.