textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Better chances for off and on thunderstorms still look to target the Wednesday through Thursday night period with a few strong to marginally severe storms possible

- Hotter temperatures and dry weather looks to be on tap for this weekend into early next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 221 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Early morning satellite water vapor imagery shows a upper level wave departing North Dakota northeast into Canada. This system has pushed a cold front southward into western Kansas early this morning which will continue to move slowly southeast towards central Kansas today. Scattered showers and few embedded weak storms look to linger this morning across central Kansas into parts of south central Kansas. Hot temperatures will affect locations south of the cold front today with upper 90s to near 100 expected, and not as hot for locations north of the front in central Kansas. A few storms look to redevelop later this afternoon/evening along the frontal boundary over central Kansas. Limited instability and high inverted-V type soundings supports gusty downburst winds from any stronger updraft(severe threat is low). Low level jet increases tonight with the main focus from this feature favoring more numerous showers/storms developing over eastern Nebraska into Iowa overnight. Current satellite imagery also shows another upper level wave embedded in the strong westerly flow over the northern Rockies with a second system diving southeast across western Canada. This first wave looks to spark off additional showers/storms late tonight over western Nebraska/northwest Kansas from modest 700mb warm air advection. This scattered activity will drift slowly southeast across Kansas on Wednesday with surface front also moving slowly southeast across the region. The cloud coverage and lingering activity could limit instability build-up over central/south central Kansas and lower daytime highs. Meanwhile there is some potential for higher instability to materialize over southeast Kansas, and combine with increasing mid-level winds from approaching second upper level wave. This could yield a few strong to marginally severe storms over southeast Kansas late Wednesday afternoon/evening.

Storms look to increase in coverage for Wednesday night north of the surface front where 700mb warm advection from the models favors elevated showers/storms. A few strong to marginally severe storms are possible given combination of elevated instability with favorable directional wind shear(700-500mb layer) and increased mid- level flow. Heading into Thursday daytime highs could come in a little cooler than current forecast, especially with surface front projected to be stalled near or south of the Kansas/Oklahoma border. Showers/storms could increase for Thursday night with 700mb warm advection commencing north of the surface front.

Models remain consistent with upper level high pressure center expanding slowly eastward from the Rockies out into the plains for the weekend into early next week. This will cause the heat dome and dry weather to build over Kansas.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

Rain showers will linger over mainly central Kansas this morning with mid-level clouds streaming overhead. Meanwhile a cold front will push slowly southward into central Kansas this afternoon, thus causing the winds to switch around to the northeast. The front will continue to move very slowly to the south tonight along with low clouds in MVFR category overspreading central Kansas late tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.