textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Record heat on Thursday driving extreme fire danger.

- A cold front will arrive late Thursday with isolated or widely scattered showers/storms possible over southern Kansas Thursday evening.

- More seasonable weather will return for Friday and Saturday before another warmup Sun-Tue.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 142 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

A sprawling mid/upper ridge was situated over the Southwest/Southern Rockies extending in far west Texas. As this mid/upper ridge shears eastward through Thursday, record heat will linger over the Central Plains. A shortwave trough digging over Canada will drive a cold front south into the Central Plains late Thursday. Ahead of the front, a prefontral trough will result in lighter wind speeds in our central KS counties but the cold front will bring an abrupt wind shift during the afternoon hours with much drier air. Higher winds are anticipated in parts of south central and southeast KS during the day on Thursday while relative humidity remains slightly higher. Given record heat and gusty winds, a Fire Weather Watch has been issued for much of the area on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening.

The airmass ahead of the front is expected to remain capped to deep moist convection but we could see an isolated shower or storm develop toward evening while immediately being undercut by the frontal boundary. The post-frontal airmass Thursday evening and Thursday night improves with eastward extent across southern KS, although higher probabilities for more robust convection are expected to remain further east into Missouri and points further east. Cooler more seasonable air is anticipated in the wake of the front with gusty northerly winds. We may see a period where advisory level winds develop Thursday evening and Thursday night but this may be short-lived and no wind headlines are planned at this time.

Fri-Sat...The highest winds speeds on Friday are expected early in the period with a decreasing pressure gradient progged as we move through the day. Seasonably cool air is anticipated with highs topping out in the 50s/around 60. High pressure at the sfc is progged to settle over Missouri Fri night/Sat morning and this is where the more robust radiational cooling is expected. Further west across central KS, low level southeast flow is progged to return through the night which may keep temperatures just above freezing for many areas.

Rising heights/increasing thickness will result in rising temperatures as we move into Sunday and early next week. Highs on Sunday will climb into the 80s for central KS while widespread mid and upper 80s are anticipated by Mon-Tue. A shortwave trough is progged to move into the central CONUS toward the middle of the week as a cold front sags southward into the area. Maintained low pops as we could see some diurnally driven showers/storms although confidence in the details remains fairly low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Main aviation concern will be a wind shift associated with a cold front late Thu afternoon through Thu evening.

South and southwest winds will remain overnight and will increase late Thu morning with gusts 30-35mph likely for southern KS. Parts of southeast KS(KCNU) may see some gusts in the 40-45 mph range by the afternoon hours. Cold front is forecast to move through KRSL-KGBD-KSLN in the 20z-22z range and KICT around 00z. North winds behind the front will also be gusty, with 30-40mph speeds likely. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain through the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 206 PM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Record heat will combine with breezy winds resulting in extreme fire danger on Thursday afternoon and Thursday evening for much of the area. A cold front impacting central Kansas on Thursday afternoon will shift winds to the north while continuing to move south and east Thursday evening and Thursday night ushering in more seasonable air across the area.

Very High fire danger will continue to be a concern for much of the area on Friday through Tuesday each afternoon. Post-frontal northerly winds and drier air will be the primary driver on Friday while breezy south to southwest winds return on Saturday through Tuesday. Temperatures will once again warm above normal on Sunday through Tuesday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 214 AM CDT Wed Mar 25 2026

Thursday (3/26): Wichita: Forecast - 95, Record - 83 (1918) Russell: Forecast - 89, Record - 90 (1989) Salina: Forecast - 93, Record - 86 (1910) Chanute: Forecast - 93, Record - 85 (1918)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094-098.