textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above normal temperatures area wide today with highs across central KS approaching 80 degrees.

- Extremely strong northwest winds expected behind a strong cold front on Sunday, with 50-60 mph gusts likely with a few approaching 65 mph. Snow showers also possible late Sunday morning through the afternoon hours.

- Significant warm-up anticipated for next week, with widespread 80s likely starting Thursday and continuing through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Strong west/northwest upper flow is currently in place from the Great Basin into the Ohio Valley with water vapor imagery showing some shortwave energy approaching the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, weak high pressure is situated through the Mississippi Valley with lee troughing continuing to strengthen.

Shortwave energy will track across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Intermountain today and in response, surface low will continue to intensify from eastern CO into eastern WY. Increasing return flow will allow for widespread highs in the 70s, which is around 15 to 20 degrees above normal highs for this time of year.

Tonight into early Sunday morning, upper trough will be tracking across the Central Rockies and out into the High Plains. In response, low pressure will quickly strengthen over eastern IA into nw IL, with a strong cold front surging south through the Central Plains. Cold front is expected to move into central KS around sunrise and be through southeast KS by 18z. Behind the front, confidence remains very high in extreme northwest winds, with gusts in the 50-60 mph range likely. With most models now showing around 55kts at the top of the mixing layer Sunday afternoon/early evening, feel that it's not out of the question we may see some gusts around 65 mph. Did go ahead and add some blowing dust for parts of central KS for Sunday afternoon.

Still looking for snow showers to develop behind the front with models remaining consistent in showing steep low level lapse rates. This should result in scattered snow showers quickly tracking off to the southeast, with the highest concentration over northeast KS. Feel the biggest threat with these will be quick reductions in visibility as low level instability produces pockets of moderate snow but combined with extreme winds, will bring rapid reductions in visibility.

By Mon morning, upper trough will extend through the Mississippi Valley and will slowly track east through Tuesday. This will get the Plains back into northwest flow aloft as upper ridging starts to build across the Desert Southwest. Upper ridging will continue to build and expand across the Southwest CONUS and will remain stagnant through Saturday. This will produce a substantial warming trend starting Wed and lasting through the weekend. Highs in the 80s will be likely starting Thursday and persisting through at least Saturday. It's not out of the question we may see some highs approach 90 degrees west of I-135.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Weak surface ridging will slide east today as lee troughing strengthens. This will allow east and southeast winds to come around to the south today with some afternoon gusts around 25 mph likely across central KS. Winds will remain gusty even after sunset across the entire area as High Plains low pressure continues to intensify. Confidence remains high that just some scattered high clouds will impact the area today.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 307 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very high fire danger will be in place this afternoon for much of central Kansas. This will be due to southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 25 mph and afternoon RH values in the 20-30% range.

For Sunday, northwesterly winds will gust up to 50-60 mph causing Very High grassland fire danger. However, given the much colder temperatures moving in along with relative humidity above 45% and some precipitation chances, fire danger concerns should be more limited.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>070-082-083-091>094.