textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Non-severe showers/thunderstorms possible today across portions of central and eastern Kansas.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms possible tonight through early Monday, along with locally heavy rain.

- Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms through at least next weekend, especially during the evening-nighttime- morning hours.

- Near to above average temperatures the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

TODAY...A weak thunderstorm complex is expected to progress east- southeast into central Kansas toward sunrise, ahead of an MCV approaching from the west. These showers/storms will be outrunning the better instability further west, so we're not expecting severe weather. This activity could reach as far east-southeast as roughly the KS Turnpike by late morning, with festering widely scattered showers/thunderstorms possible through the rest of the day over portions of central and eastern KS within a zone of 800-600mb warm advection. In all instances, severe weather or widespread heavy rainfall appears unlikely.

TONIGHT--EARLY MONDAY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop toward midnight tonight and persist into early Monday, mainly along/south of Highway 56 and along/east of Highway 14, within a zone of strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection. Adequate elevated instability amidst decent directional effective shear may support a handful of severe thunderstorms capable of quarter to half-dollar size hail. Additionally, stout downdraft CAPE may also support some severe wind gusts. Additionally, the potential for numerous/training storms may support locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding concerns. By sunrise Monday, much of this activity should have progressed to mainly along/east of the Flint Hills, with all activity likely exiting the region by late morning.

LATE TUESDAY--NEXT WEEKEND...These periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist off-and-on through at least next weekend, mainly during the evening-nighttime-morning hours, as periodic shortwaves progress east-southeast over Mid-America north of a stout upper ridge anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days. Periodic triple digit heat indices are likely, mainly over south-central and southeast Kansas during the afternoon through early evening hours. The "coolest" day looks to be today, with increased clouds and scattered precipitation keeping daytime highs in the 80s and 90s, coolest over portions of central, east-central, and southeast KS.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/

Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

A cluster of weak showers with a few embedded lightning strikes is currently moving east over west-northwest KS. This activity could impact RSL-GBD-SLN toward mid-morning through about midday. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups.

Later tonight into early Monday, scattered to numerous showers/thunderstorms are expected to develop over portions of eastern Kansas, within a zone of strengthening 850-700 warm/moist advection. Thinking most of the activity will be generally along/east of the Flint Hills, although activity could form as far west as ICT-SLN.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.