textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong to severe storms possible late this evening into early Friday morning. Ping pong ball size hail and wind gusts around 55-65 mph are the main concerns.

- Another round of strong to severe storms may develop across the area late Friday afternoon and last into Friday night. Large hail, damaging wind gusts, and perhaps a couple of tornadoes are possible.

- A break in the activity is forecast for this weekend, but storm chances look to return on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 244 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Currently, a short wave mid/upper level ridge is situated over the area with strong low/mid level moisture advection. Low clouds and patchy fog continue to impact much of the forecast area early this afternoon. A trough to the west will continue to deepen and approach our area. As we move into the early evening hours tonight, the LLJ will strengthen after 00Z. This feature, along with broader scale lift, will be more than enough to kick off some storms to our south and west. This activity will progress northeastward through the evening hours, reaching our doorstep between 03-06Z. Favorable instability between 1500-2000 J/kg and shear values around 40 knots will support a few severe storms across south-central and into eastern Kansas. Storm mode will be multi-cell or linear with damaging straight line winds and large hail being the primary threats. This activity looks to weaken beyond 09Z with only a few lingering showers across eastern Kansas by 12Z.

Moving into Friday, a thick stratus layer will continue to plague the region through much of the day as southerly flow and low level moisture transport persist. Despite this, strong WAA will aide in temperatures warming into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Additional storm chances will increase across the area for Friday afternoon and Friday evening as the trough begins to pass over the Central Plains. This feature will drive a cold front into the area by the evening hours. Previous concerns about storms firing along the dryline have lessened as it appears the cold frontal boundary will overtake the dryline before it reaches central Kansas. As such, storm mode will likely be linear as the front interacts with the warm moist environment across south-central and southeast Kansas and drives convective initiation. The main hazard concern with this activity will be damaging straight line winds with large hail and a few tornadoes remaining a possibility through initial development of storms. The frontal boundary, and consequently the storm threat, will push off to the east between 06-09Z.

For the weekend into early next week, zonal flow will take over and a more stable pattern is expected. Temperatures on Saturday will cool off behind the front to near normal, with temperatures rebounding on Sunday and Monday into the middle to upper 70s. By Tuesday, strong moisture advection will return with continued well above normal temperatures. A couple of frontal boundaries look to dive across the region on Tuesday into Wednesday, leading to a prolonged time frame for possible shower and thunderstorm development. Given the time of year and the state of the environment, another chance for severe weather looks possible with this activity. There's still plenty of time to iron out the details of this next event.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 1143 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A few aviation concerns through this TAF period with low ceilings, thunderstorm chances, and low-level wind shear. Reduced visibility from fog and IFR ceilings at RSL should lift out by 08z. Low-level wind shear will affect all sites with speeds between 45-55kts at 2kft through 14-16z. Storms are moving through south-central to southeast Kansas affecting ICT and CNU with thunderstorm chances moving out of ICT around 10z. Chances for showers and storms may linger at CNU through late Friday morning. MVFR ceilings are likely at all sites through late Friday morning then will start to lift to scattered VFR ceilings starting in central KS Friday afternoon. As a cold front moves through late Friday afternoon to Friday evening (21z to 04z), breezy southerly winds will shift to breezy northwesterly winds. As this cold front moves through additional storm chances are possible but uncertainty is high at this time for timing so did not include in this TAF issuance.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Warm and breezy conditions this afternoon will result in very high grassland fire danger across central KS, then again on Friday afternoon across the forecast area. However, rainfall is expected to largely preclude fire weather concerns.

Very high grassland fire danger may return to the area on Monday and Tuesday of next week.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.