textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Widespread showers, especially early in the day. Rain may be locally heavy at times.

- Warm and dry conditions will return on Sunday and last through next week. A very high fire danger may develop on Monday for much of the area while Extreme fire danger is expected on Tuesday for areas along and west of a line from Anthony to Lincoln.

- A very high fire danger may return Wednesday and Thursday across much of the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A shortwave trough over the Southern Rockies early this morning is progged to emerge over the Southern Plains as we move through the day. Showers are expected to linger for areas along and north of the warm front through much of the day before diminishing from west to east late in the day or early in the evening. We could see some fog develop through the morning hours as well with continued low level moisture advection. Strong storms are no longer anticipated and any heavy rain should be short-lived with minimal impacts expected. It will remain mild for mid Feb with highs ranging from the low to mid 50s in central KS to the low to mid 60s near the OK state line.

We could see some fog formation late tonight into early Sunday as the sfc ridge axis settles over the area and the low level moisture never gets scoured out. But some guidance maintains some mixing and confidence in fog remains somewhat low at this time. Lows tonight will fall into the mid 30s in parts of central KS while far southeast KS sees lows in the mid/upper 40s.

Sun-Mon...a mid/upper ridge is progged to translate eastward over the central CONUS through the period. Rising heights/increasing thickness will support rising temperatures. Much above average values are expected with highs in the 60s and 70s. Breezy winds will return to south central and southeast KS on Mon.

Tue-Fri...A negatively tiled trough is progged to emerge from the Northern Rockies and impact the Northern Plains on Tue. This will result in increasing southwesterly winds further south across the Southern and Central Plains. Southwest flow will allow drier air to be advected eastward into parts of central KS during the day on Tuesday. This will help boost temperatures into the upper 70s and lower 80s while relative humidity falls into the lower 20s resulting in critical fire weather conditions for areas along and west of Highway 14. Drier air will overspread the area on Wed in the wake of a Pacific front. Another shortwave trough impacting the Northern Plains will drive a cold front south over the area on Thursday ushering in more seasonable air late in the week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 523 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Numerous showers were impacting the region this morning with widespread IFR/LIFR with low cigs. We may begin to see some improvement in flight categories this afternoon but this may be short-lived as high pressure builds into the area late tonight. Light easterly winds will back to the north late this afternoon and tonight with speeds around 15 knots at times. Confidence is increasing for some fog and low ceilings redeveloping tonight as the residual low level moisture remains in place. Winds may diminish late as high pressure builds in allowing for some fog and low cigs once again.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 158 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A very high fire danger is expected for much of the area through the upcoming week with dry, breezy and mild weather conditions anticipated.

Tuesday may pose the greatest risk with a combination of above average temperatures, low relative humidity, and windy conditions resulting in extreme fire danger for areas along and west of Highway 14.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.