textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot temperatures expected to continue through at least Thursday.

- Shower and storm chances may increase toward the latter half of the week, with the best chances for the forecast area expected heading into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate continued ridging across the Four Corners as a stationary boundary sits across northern Kansas. Residual showers from a midlevel baroclinic zone drifted over portions of northern Kansas earlier today, and cloud cover from these has lingered over central Kansas. We continue to expect hot conditions across most locations through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening, particularly south of US-50 where cloud coverage is limited. Looking ahead to Tuesday, little change in the synoptic pattern is expected with the ridge in place. A slight northward shift in the surface boundary along with a subtle increase in the westerly (downslope) component of surface winds should allow for hotter temperatures in the afternoon and early evening. As such, many locations should see heat indices around/above 105 degrees. Similar to today, there are questions as to how hot temperatures get across portions of central Kansas given high clouds overhead heading into the afternoon. However, current thinking is that heat indices should still be able to clear advisory criteria areawide, so decided to issue a heat advisory for the entire forecast area Tuesday afternoon into the early evening. Another day of heat is expected Wednesday with widespread highs forecast above 100 degrees.

Global models continue to highlight a change to the overall pattern late Wednesday as midlevel energy arrives across the Pacific Northwest and further south across southern California. These two features will allow for southwesterly mid/upper flow to return to the central CONUS through the weekend. Perturbations in this flow trekking out of the Rockies will bring repeated chances for showers and storms to portions of the Plains beginning Wednesday night and lasting through the weekend, though as this morning's discussion pointed out, exactly how far south these chances make it remains uncertain. Trends in long-term guidance so far continue to suggest locations to our north and west will have the greatest chances for meaningful precipitation, and with the surface boundary continuing to linger across northern Kansas, this would suggest hot and dry conditions through at least Thursday. Models hint at the potential for a southward shift of the boundary toward the end of the week, which may bring better chances for rain to the forecast area as we head into the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 1207 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR and breezy conditions expected over the next 24 hours.

Surface winds will remain southerly or south-southwesterly through the TAF period. Wind speeds will be around 10 to 15 knots with gusts around 20 to 25 knots across the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033- 047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.