textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon into this evening and again late tonight into Thursday morning

- Additional storm chances across central and north-central KS Friday morning

- Mainly dry weekend before small rain chances return early next week

- Heat indices from 100 to 105 are expected from Saturday into next week, especially across southern KS

DISCUSSION

Issued at 255 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

As of 230 PM Wednesday afternoon, the persistent midlevel pattern remains in place with troughing across the eastern CONUS and ridging across the west. A weak MCV is making its way through central KS. To this point, only a small shield of midlevel cloud cover has been a result of the MCV. As the afternoon progresses, mixed-layer inhibition will greatly erode with up to 2000 J/kg of instability across portions of central and south-central KS. The weak MCV may provide just enough ascent to spark a few thunderstorms through early evening. Deep layer shear is quite meager at 20-25 kt and should mitigate any prospects for severe weather. Any storm that does develop should dissipate with sunset this evening.

Thunderstorms are currently developing across the high Plains of CO/WY. Latest HREF guidance keeps the bulk of this thunderstorm activity west of the forecast area late tonight into the morning hours of Thursday with the LLJ focusing near the CO border. That being said, any remnant MCV and weak convergence on the LLJ as it veers during the morning could allow for a few additional thunderstorms to develop across portions of central or south- central KS. A similar scenario may play out Friday morning with a few thunderstorms possible across central KS as the LLJ veers.

By this weekend, temperatures will be on the increase as the core of the midlevel ridge migrates back across the central and southern Plains. This will send temperatures back into the upper 90s and 100s. Factoring in dew points in the mid-60s will produce heat indices in the low 100s. Uncertainty increases for Monday and beyond as the midlevel ridge slides south and southeast as a northern stream shortwave trough glides across the northern Plains. This will shunt a cold front towards the forecast area. Model guidance remains split with the timing/location of the front by Monday. This front could provide a focal point for showers/thunderstorms and cooler temperatures Monday into Tuesday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Main forecast concern will be storms late this afternoon and again early Thu morning.

Visible satellite shows what appears to be an MCV tracking across northwest KS that is the result of early morning convection over southwest Nebraska. This feature may allow a few storms to develop mainly west of I-135 across south central KS. With lack of coverage will not hit too hard and will only run with a PROB30 at KHUT and monitor trends. Storms are also expected to develop over eastern CO this evening and track east overnight. Some of this activity may try and creep into our western flank after 09z, but confidence is too low to mention into TAFs at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.