textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms will linger across southern Kansas into this evening. Isolated severe storms are possible with the strongest activity with hail and heavy rainfall as the main hazards.

- Isolated to widely scattered storms will be possible late Friday afternoon into Friday night with more widespread activity expected on Saturday night.

- Severe storms likely on Saturday night with damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and possible flooding as the primary hazards.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 325 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Broad upper troughing is currently stretching across the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley with a shortwave trough moving into the northeastern CONUS. Lee troughing is strengthening over the high Plains with high pressure moving into eastern Nebraska and eastern Kansas. In our area, zonal flow aloft persists with elevated storms ongoing mainly south of Highway 50 from 700mb WAA. PWATs are between 1.4 to 1.6 inches across this area which is around/slightly above the 75th percentile for this time of year, leading to efficient rainfall with any storm. This activity is likely to fester into the evening as it shifts south into Oklahoma. MUCAPE values are between 1500-2000 J/kg with 45-50 kts of effective shear making the primary hazards hail and heavy rainfall given how elevated this storms are and DCAPE values under 250 J/kg. As we move into tonight and Friday, drier conditions look to prevail as high pressure continues to expand across the Central Plains and Middle Mississippi Valley. High temperatures will rise into the low to mid 80s on Friday afternoon. Friday afternoon into Friday night, shower and storm chances will increase mainly in central to south-central KS as 700mb WAA increases. This activity will likely be isolated to widely scattered with severe storms not anticipated given the lack of instability and effective shear.

The main focus for severe weather continues to be Saturday night. Low-level upslope moisture advection sets up in western Nebraska into northwestern Kansas on late Saturday afternoon which will likely result in storm initiation. A frontal boundary looks to push into northern Kansas by early Saturday night with the bulk shear vector oriented along the boundary leading storms to grow upscale quickly. Model guidance suggests around 40 kts of effective shear with up to 1400 J/kg of DCAPE. The ECMWF and NAM hint at instability values greater than 2500 J/kg, but the GFS suggests around 1500 J/kg. The LLJ will ramp up Saturday night, aiding to storm development and instability especially as a shortwave trough approaches late Saturday night. There is some model discrepancy with the trajectory of the MCS as the GFS brings it southeast through our forecast area, whereas other guidance brings it through southern Nebraska into central Kansas and then continues eastward towards northern Missouri. Regardless, the main hazards with this activity will be damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and possible flooding as PWATs are progged to be greater than 1.8". Its possible for rain chances to linger in southern to southeast KS as the upper shortwave slides across the Central Plains on Sunday, though there is quite a bit of uncertainty depending on how Saturday evolves. If a strong MCS moves south through our area, it could push an outflow boundary south of our area which would limit storm chances on Sunday. Continue to stay tuned as we refine this forecast.

Continuing into next week, drier conditions are likely to prevail for our area. An upper trough is progged to move into the Northern Plains on Monday night which may result in rain chances clipping our area though better chances will remain north and south of Kansas. As we move towards mid-week, upper ridging will build into the western CONUS then better rain chances for our area may arrive Wednesday night as another shortwave trough slides across the region. At this time, severe weather chances appear to be low. For temperatures, highs are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s through much of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Widespread showers and storms will continue across eastern and southern portions of the region through much of the day. These storms will generally impact KICT, KHUT, and KCNU through around 23Z to 03Z this evening. Locally heavy rain, lightning, and small hail are the main threats with stronger storms. The activity shifts out of the region to the south towards sunset. Skies remain BKN to OVC for those terminals through the end of the TAF period. A few solutions hint at low cigs/fog moving into KCNU overnight, but there is not enough confidence to include in the TAF.

For KRSL, KSLN, and KGBD, expect light winds and SCT mid-high clouds through the TAF period. Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain to the south and east of those terminals.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.