textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon.

- A rogue storm may develop along the dryline late this afternoon/evening but probabilities remain too low to mention given a strong capping inversion.

- Better chances for severe thunderstorms are expected to arrive on Tuesday and Tuesday night and possibly again late Wednesday.

- After a brief break, another round of severe thunderstorms may impact the area on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Southwest mid/upper flow continues across the central CONUS while we remain under some subtle ridging within the mid lvl flow. The NAM/RAP/HRRR are all mixing the dryline much further east for this afternoon compared to 24 hrs ago. Some mix the dryline into the Flint Hills this afternoon before it retreats westward into south central Kansas this evening and tonight. Point soundings in the vicinity of the dryline show a strong capping inversion around the H8 level which will likely preclude deep moist convection today and tonight. There is some concern that deeper vertical mixing in the wake of the dryline will mix down higher wind speeds with some gusts of 40-50 mph. Southwest wind speeds and gusts were trended higher for the afternoon in the wake of the dryline but we may still be too low on speeds. Another warm day is anticipated with no changes to the Red flag warning.

A shortwave trough over the Southwest is progged to move into the Rockies late on Tuesday. Very strong winds through the column will begin to nose into the Central Plains late in the day. Meanwhile, the persistent dryline will be situated over the area once again and will become a focus for widely scattered thunderstorm development by 21Z. Very steep mid-lvl lapse rates/moderate buoyancy and deep layer shear of 50-60 knots will all be supportive of supercells capable of very large hail, damaging winds and a couple of tornadoes. As the previous shift mentioned, the dryline is now progged to lie in the southwest to northeast fashion, more similar to the orientation of the deep layer shear vectors which could impact storm mode to some degree.

As we move into Wednesday, the frontal boundary will still be hanging around in southeast Kansas. This boundary will become a focus for showers and thunderstorms on Wed afternoon. Low level veered flow may limit convergence on the boundary initially, but shear/buoyancy would continue to support organized storms bringing a threat for severe weather to southeast KS. The low level moisture may try to return NNW Wed night working back into south central KS which could result in renewed storm development but confidence in this scenario remains fairly low at this time.

A mid/upper ridge will translate eastward over the central CONUS on Thursday. Breezy southerly winds and dry conditions will return to the area with mild, above normal temperatures prevailing.

Another vigorous trough is progged to build over the Rockies late on Friday. A 120 knot upper jet will arrive over the Southern Plains nosing into the Central Plains toward 00Z. A sharp dryline may become a focus for storms late in the day before the cold front overtakes the dryline with a line of storms racing south and east across the area Friday night. We continue to see a strongly sheared environment with moderate instability and steep mid-lvl lapse rates supporting supercells capable all hazards initially, while a line of storms may evolve late along the advancing cold front.

Sat-Sun...As the mid/upper trough moves eastward toward the Great Lakes area, drier more stable and seasonably cool air will arrive on Saturday. Surface high pressure will settle over the area early on Sunday with some frost possible. Temperatures will quickly moderate on Sunday with rising heights/increasing thickness and a return to southerly slow level flow late in the period.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 639 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to impact areas along and southeast of the Kansas Turnpike this morning. Clouds should begin to mix out from west to east by around 14Z at KICT and by 17-18Z at KCNU. Meanwhile, southerly winds at 20 to 30 mph will be common. A dryline will develop this afternoon and spread eastward into south central Kansas toward the Flint Hills. Winds will shift to the WSW behind the dryline with some gusts around 40 mph possible in central KS. Breezy southerly winds will return this evening and overnight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 210 AM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Extreme grassland fire danger is expected this afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon along and west of a dryline where afternoon relative humidity may fall into the teens. Deep vertical mixing will also bring the potential gusty southwest winds. The area of concern will be mainly west of I-135. Otherwise, spring green-up and higher humidity values is expected to keep the fire danger in check for most areas, especially areas southeast of the Kansas Turnpike.

Breezy southerly winds will return on Thursday and Friday resulting in a very high grassland fire danger for Russell and Barton counties in central Kansas.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091. Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for KSZ032-033-047-048-050-067-082-091.