textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous thunderstorms late this afternoon through this evening, gradually exiting to the east-southeast later tonight. Severe weather, heavy rainfall, and flooding possible.

- Additional hit-or-miss thunderstorms possible Friday-Friday night, but widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected.

- Pattern change anticipated to start this weekend and last through most of next week. This will bring much hotter temperatures, mostly dry conditions, and gusty south winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT...A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is currently progressing east across central and eastern Kansas, ahead of a mid-level impulse, and within a zone of modest 850-700mb warm advection and moisture transport. This activity will be capable of lower-end severe weather in the form of quarter size hail and 60 mph winds, especially over far southern Kansas closer to the richer instability. This activity should continue tracking east- southeast into far southeast Kansas as we head into mid-late afternoon.

Attention then turns to surface-based supercell potential later this afternoon and into the evening, mainly over far southern Kansas and northern Oklahoma, in the vicinity of a stalled outflow boundary. Strong/fat instability coupled with decent deep layer shear and weak/modest mid-level winds/shear should support a few HP supercells and/or HP supercell clusters along/just north of the boundary, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, impressive low-level shear along/just north of the boundary along with decent low-level buoyancy could favor a few tornadoes, some of which could be strong. Storm motions look to be east to slightly southeast. Based on observations trends, thinking north-central and northwest OK have the greatest potential for these supercells before about 8 PM, although it will be close for southern portions of south-central KS. This activity should tend to congeal into one or more thunderstorm clusters with time as it moves east-southeast this evening.

Meanwhile further north, continued deep lift in vicinity of a sharpening synoptic stationary front should support a gradual uptick in scattered to numerous thunderstorm coverage later this afternoon and evening, roughly along and either side of the Highway 56 corridor, with storm motions to the east-southeast. This activity should be mostly elevated in nature, so the primary threats will be large hail and perhaps some straight-line damaging winds with any bowing segments. This activity looks to exit far southeast Kansas by late tonight.

These two areas of thunderstorms this afternoon, evening, and tonight coupled with very rich precipitable waters should support pockets of very heavy rainfall, especially along/south of roughly the Highway 56 corridor. Based on some of the latest CAM guidance, wouldn't be surprised to see localized 3-5+ inch rainfall amounts, especially where storms train over the same areas. Amounts like this would favor flood/flash flood concerns, especially given the very wet soils across the region. Hence, will continue the flood watch areawide through tonight. FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...Could have a few lingering showers/thunderstorms across far southeast and southern Kansas Friday in vicinity of the old frontal zone, with additional activity possible late Friday night generally west of I-135. In all instances, widespread severe weather or heavy rainfall is not expected.

SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK...Building upper ridging will support a pattern change, with mostly dry weather prevailing Saturday through next week.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

A building upper ridge will support a pattern change, with increasing heat/humidity Saturday through next week. Given the progged dewpoints and low-level thickness values, thinking a prolonged period of 100-105+ degree heat indices are likely. We will be monitoring for any possible heat advisories or excessive heat warnings. Additionally, persistent lee troughing will support a prolonged period of breezy/gusty south winds Saturday through next week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Challenging aviation forecast the next 12 hours, with several hazards in play across central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...A large area of rain with embedded thunderstorms will continue to advance east across central and eventually into eastern Kansas by early to mid-afternoon. The greatest potential for thunderstorms will be mainly over south- central and southeast Kansas. Once this area of rain/storms moves east, there may be a couple hour lull before additional thunderstorms develop further west and move into central and eastern Kansas later this afternoon and especially this evening. Covered this threat with PROB30 groups for now, although later shifts will likely need to insert TEMPO groups for TSRA. Thinking the brunt of this activity will exit to the east later tonight.

LOW CLOUDS...Patchy MVFR and IFR conditions are likely in/around showers and thunderstorms through later tonight. Additionally, more widespread low clouds (MVFR to possibly IFR) should gradually fill in from the north this evening through tonight, and persisting into at least Friday morning.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.