textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A handful of thunderstorms expected over east-central and southeast KS late this afternoon and evening. Severe weather likely.

- Additional thunderstorms possible later tonight through Thursday, especially over southern half of KS. Main threats will be large hail and locally heavy rainfall.

- Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms possible Saturday afternoon through Sunday, along with heavy rainfall, mainly over the northern half of KS and NE.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop along and strong cold after about 3-4 PM and persist through the late evening over portions of east-central and southeast KS, mainly along/southeast of a line extending from Emporia to El Dorado to Wellington. Better chances will likely be over far east-central and southeast KS, with coverage much more isolated further west toward southern portions of south-central KS.

Strong/fat instability in concert with 40-50 kts of deep layer shear (with a strong directional component) will support a handful of severe thunderstorms capable of large hail greater than 2 inches in diameter and damaging winds in excess of 60-70 mph. Additionally, cannot rule out a few brief landspout tornadoes given the strong buoyancy amidst strong low-level vorticity along the frontal zone. Furthermore, despite mostly veered out low-level flow, a brief supercell tornado cannot be ruled out as well, given enlarged hodographs toward evening and rich low-level moisture and some 0-3km buoyancy. However, the primary threats should be large hail and damaging winds, along with locally heavy rainfall.

LATE TONIGHT--THURSDAY...While it's not completely clear how things will play out later tonight through Thursday given differing model solutions, strengthening 800-600mb warm advection and moisture transport should support at least widely scattered thunderstorm redevelopment (and possibly numerous thunderstorms) later tonight and persisting through Thursday, mainly south of a Great Bend-- McPherson--Emporia line. Despite most unstable parcels being rather elevated (above 800-700mb), ample elevated buoyancy, steep-ish mid- level lapse rates and modest cloud-bearing shear may support a handful of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of large hail. As the previous forecaster alluded to, limited stronger flow aloft should keep hail sizes generally around half-dollars or less. Additionally, training thunderstorms could favor pockets of very heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns.

FRIDAY LATE AFTERNOON--NIGHT...This is a low confidence period, with modestly increasing warm advection and moisture transport and subtle upper energy approaching from the west possibly supporting low to moderate thunderstorm chances across the forecast area. If these thunderstorms do materialize, thinking the best chances will be Friday night.

THIS WEEKEND...The latest guidance continues to favor additional periodic thunderstorm chances Saturday afternoon/evening through Sunday evening, as low-amplitude shortwave energy approaching from the west interacts with a moist/unstable airmass in place across Mid- America. Increasing low and deep layer shear should support a severe weather threat, with seasonably rich precipitable waters supporting pockets of very heavy rainfall and associated flooding concerns.

The most probable scenario at this time is an MCS or two developing over Nebraska and/or northwest KS late Saturday and barreling southeast across the region Saturday night into early Sunday. If this scenario pans out, better thunderstorm chances may remain over generally the northern half of KS and points northward, and thunderstorm chances could end by Sunday afternoon as stable post-outflow air spreads south across the region. Nevertheless, uncertainty is high surrounding forecast specifics for this period, stay tuned for later updates.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Stout/gusty south-southwest winds continue to decrease slightly over eastern KS, so thinking the wind advisory will be good to expire on time at 3 PM this afternoon. Otherwise, heat indices up to around 100-105 degrees will persist into early evening over south-central and southeast KS ahead of an approaching cold front.

In contrast, Thursday will likely be the coolest day of the next 7 days due to the potential for widespread clouds and at least scattered showers/thunderstorms across the region, especially south- central and southeast KS, where daytime readings should stay in the 70s. Meanwhile, central KS should reach the 80s where precipitation won't be as prevalent.

Otherwise a return to near to above average temperatures is expected Friday through the weekend ahead of our next cold front, with a return to near to below average temperatures early to mid next week in wake of the cold front.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will progress east-southeast through southeast Kansas this evening, along a southward progressing cold front. This activity is likely to impact the area around CNU TAF site. Large hail, damaging winds, and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the strongest activity. Thinking this activity will exit south into Oklahoma by late evening.

Later tonight, increasing deep warm advection and moisture transport should support scattered shower/thunderstorm redevelopment across much of central, south-central, and southeast Kansas, with this activity persisting off-and-on through Thursday. For now included PROB30 groups at all TAF sites to account for this threat. Hail up to about half-dollar size and heavy rainfall may accompany the strongest activity.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.