textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few isolated thunderstorms possible late today and again late Sunday. If storms are able to form, severe weather is possible.

- Somewhat higher thunderstorm chances late Monday, severe weather once again possible.

- Hot, possibly recording breaking, temperatures through Monday, cool down by Monday night and Tuesday.

- Strong south winds areawide Sunday and Monday supporting very high grassfire danger for areas generally west of Interstate 135.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

OVERNIGHT--THIS MORNING...A weak/subtle mid-upper wave traversing the region may support a few hit-or-miss showers/thunderstorms generally along and east of the Flint Hills through about mid- morning. Strong or severe storms are not expected.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...While most locations across the forecast area will likely remain dry, a few isolated thunderstorms are possible generally northwest of a line extending from Pratt to Salina near a retreating warm front over central and northern KS, and ahead of a sharpening dryline over western KS. Despite weak to non-existent upper forcing, strong heating should be enough to reach convective temperatures in vicinity of the aforementioned boundaries. Modest shear combined with strong buoyancy and hefty downdraft CAPE would support large hail and damaging winds with any storms that can manage to develop. Higher storm chances will likely remain north of the forecast area over far northern KS and Nebraska north of the warm front.

SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON--EVENING...Late Sunday also has a conditional severe weather threat, mainly west of the Flint Hills ahead of a sharpening dryline. Weak upper forcing will likely only support a few isolated storms at best along the dryline, so widespread activity is not expected. A slight uptick in deep layer shear (compared to today) combined with steep lapse rates and very strong instability will support large hail and damaging winds with any storms that can form. Additionally, increasing low-level shear may support an isolated tornado threat with any storm that can survive into the evening.

MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON--NIGHT...Thinking this period has the greatest potential for thunderstorms, as a potent shortwave gives the region a glancing blow to the northwest, and a dryline/cold front combo approach from the west. Modest shear with strong buoyancy supports the potential for severe weather capable of all severe hazards. However, there is still uncertainty on how this event will evolve. If the cold front overtakes the dryline too quickly, the potential for "higher-end" severe weather will likely be limited due to a more messy storm mode and deep layer shear oriented mostly parallel to the front. In contrast, if the slower solutions verify, the dryline will be in play for a longer period of time, supporting a few isolated supercells capable of all severe hazards, especially west of the Flint Hills Monday evening. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

WIND:

Breezy/windy south winds will encompass the region through Monday, as lee troughing remains anchored over the High Plains. Thinking the strongest winds will be Sunday and Monday, with a tight pressure gradient and good mixing supporting gusts upwards of 40-45 mph.

TEMPERATURES:

Southerly flow and above average heights/thickness will support continued above average temperatures through Monday, with overnight lows in the 60s to low 70s and daytime highs in the 80s and 90s. Record high temperatures and record warm lows will be in jeopardy through Monday. A strong cold front looks to blast south across the region Monday night, supporting a return to near average temperatures by Tuesday and beyond. Some guidance is even supporting below average temperatures in the 60s Tuesday and Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1217 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Low-level wind shear will affect south-central and southeast KS in the overnight hours as the low-level jet continues, diminishing around 13z Saturday morning. Southeast winds will pick up late Saturday morning and continue through this TAF period with gusts up to 30 kts at times especially in south- central to southeast KS. An isolated storm could be possible in central KS late Saturday afternoon into the evening, though confidence remains very low on chances especially for terminal impacts. Given the high uncertainty, decided not to include in this TAF issuance but will continue to monitor for later issuances.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 252 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135 Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central and western KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty south winds. Southerly wind gusts Sunday and Monday afternoons will approach 40-45 mph. A wind shift from the northwest will occur Monday evening and night as a strong cold front blasts southeast through the area.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.