textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- A few showers and storms this morning may produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall.

- More widespread showers and storms are expected tonight. Strong to marginally severe storms are possible with 50-60 mph wind gusts being the main concern.

- Cooler and quieter this weekend. Temperatures rebounding next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

Modest but persistent mid-level WAA across northern and eastern Kansas has provided enough ascent to support the development of scattered showers and storms generally along and northeast of a Salina-Eureka-Chanute line early this morning. Meanwhile, a loosely organized broken line of showers and storms is quickly progressing eastward across western Kansas, and has had a history of producing gusty winds between 40-50 mph. As the initial activity slowly exits eastward, this second round of showers and storms will be arriving later this morning; however, the intensity of this activity is expected to decrease given widespread robust convective inhibition across much of the forecast area. In general, chances for showers and storms will gradually end from west to east later this morning into early this afternoon. It's possible some showers and storms will continue to linger across far eastern Kansas through much of the day, but much of this activity during the afternoon hours should be limited to Missouri.

Model guidance over the past few days has consistently shown a sharp deep layer trough digging into the northern and central plains later tonight. Based on the short range guidance this morning, not much has changed. At the same time, a weak cold front will push southeastward across the northern and central plains. Given broad forcing for ascent from the incoming trough and frontal boundary moving into a ridiculously moist airmass (PWATs well over 2 inches), it's all but certain a line of storms will develop along the cold front and sweep across much of the region late tonight into Friday morning. While it's possible this line of storms will produce strong to marginally severe wind gusts, the main factor curbing storm intensity will be extensive convective inhibition for surface based parcels. However, elevated instability will remain uncapped overnight, and given a robust LLJ, these storms should remain intact and organized through the overnight hours. Any severe wind gusts that occur should remain isolated though due to the surface based CIN. By Friday morning, most of the convection should be well off to the south and east. In the wake of this activity, northerly surface winds will overspread the region which should help to moderate temperatures somewhat. However, it remains possible that some locations across southern Kansas could see afternoon highs in the mid 90s. The primary surge of cooler air is forecast to arrive Friday night which should help drop temperatures into the 60s across the forecast area.

THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...

Mid range deterministic and ensemble model guidance continues to show a pattern that favors cooler air across the region this weekend with broad upper troughing across the eastern CONUS and a strong upper ridge over the Desert Southwest. At the surface, a robust surface ridge across the northern plains/Midwest will support at least a couple of days of northerly low level flow. Saturday in particular could be quite breezy given a tight pressure gradient across the area. These northerly winds will serve to bring cooler temperatures into the region, especially across eastern Kansas where many locations may only see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s Saturday afternoon! That being said, temperatures will begin to gradually rebound beginning on Sunday as modest mid/upper ridging slowly builds in across the central plains. By mid-week next week, temperatures should return to near, or just a tick above average. In addition to the brief cool down, drier air will overspread the region in the wake of Friday's cold front. Therefore, rain chances this weekend and into next week will be minute at best.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 611 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

At 12Z this morning, scattered showers and storms were ongoing across much of the area along and east of a KICT-KSLN line. Main impacts from this activity as it gradually moves eastward this morning will be brief vis reductions from moderate to heavy rainfall, and occasional lightning strikes. Opted not to go with prevailing thunder in any TAF for this morning due to how infrequent lightning strikes have been with this activity. Rain chances should end from west to east, eventually exiting the area by 18Z early this afternoon.

An additional round of storms is forecast for late tonight into Friday morning. These storms could bring gusty winds up to 40 knots, especially across central Kansas, as well as brief heavy rainfall. Given some lingering uncertainty about coverage and timing, opted to go with PROB30s for now, but this may need to change in future TAF issuances.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ082-091-092.