textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably mild through Monday, with a modest cool down commencing by Tuesday, although likely still above average for February standards.

- Periodic rain chances late Tuesday through early Wednesday, and again Thursday night through Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

TEMPERATURES:

Anomalous upper level high pressure settling east over Mid- America will support continued unseasonably mild temperatures through Monday. Monday looks to be the warmest day of the next 7 days, as the thermal ridge settles over the region and southwesterly low-level flow increases ahead of our next cold front. The only daily record high temperature that might be in jeopardy is 74 degrees at Chanute last set in 1932, with all other record highs likely safe in the 80s.

As we head into Tuesday and persisting through next weekend, deterministic and ensemble consensus supports a modest cool down, as an eastern CONUS longwave trough pushes Canadian high pressure south into Mid-America. A major cold snap looks unlikely, with temperatures likely remaining relatively mild for February standards. Still thinking NBM may be a few degrees too warm with this cooler airmass compared to the global model consensus.

PRECIPITATION:

Building upper level high pressure will support a dry forecast through at least the first half of Tuesday. For late Tuesday through early Wednesday, there is a slight chance for rain over far southern and far southeast Kansas, as a fleet-footed weather system traverses the Southern Plains. Suspect highest rain chances will remain south of the KS/OK border.

Additional low probabilities for rain exist Thursday and Thursday night, as another weak weather disturbance traverses the Central Plains, with only light rainfall amounts expected at best.

Deterministic and ensemble consensus supports the highest rain chances Friday through Saturday night, as a deeper upper trough approaches from the west-southwest. Run-to-run and model-to-model consistency has proven rather poor surrounding this time period, so uncertainty remains high on timing, placement, and forecast rainfall amounts. GEFS and CMC ensemble means support higher rain chances, compared to lower probabilities portrayed by the EPS. Regardless, precipitation type looks to likely remain all liquid across the forecast area given lack of cold air.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1120 PM CST Sat Feb 7 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. LLWS situated over CNU is expected to dissipate by sunrise.

Winds will gradually turn to the north/northwest as a weak surface trough makes its way through the area early this morning. Sustained speeds are anticipated to remain at/under 10 kts. Mid-high SCT/BKN clouds will move eastward through the morning hours and give way to widespread SKC by afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 140 AM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

MONDAY...Breezy/gusty south winds, well above normal temperatures, and lower humidity could support some VERY HIGH grassland fire danger values mainly along/west of the Flint Hills Monday afternoon. Red flag/critical fire danger is not expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.