textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Below average temperatures through Thursday or Friday, warming trend thereafter.

- Off-and-on scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tonight through the weekend (highest chances through Friday night), with additional off-and-on chances Tuesday through next week. Widespread severe weather is unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 237 AM CDT Wed May 20 2026

RAIN/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

PREDAWN HOURS--EARLY THIS MORNING...Should see isolated to scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over far southeast KS, underneath the right entrance region of an upper jet, and in vicinity of a persistent 850-700mb trough/moist axis. Marginal instability will prevent strong/severe storms or widespread heavy rainfall.

THIS EVENING--WEEKEND...A train of shortwaves traversing Mid-America will support periodic off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances this evening through the weekend, but likely most widespread tonight through Friday night. While a few strong storms and pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, marginal instability combined with relatively weak shear and forcing should preclude widespread chances for severe weather. The only caveat to that may be late Friday, when increasing instability and mid-level lapse rates may support a few severe storms, especially west-southwest of the forecast area.

There's quite a bit of spread between various model solutions on how much rain we'll receive through the weekend. However, the overall consensus supports the greatest potential for one inch or more generally east of the KS Turnpike, with generally less than one inch west of the Turnpike. Of course, locally higher amounts are always possible.

NEXT WEEK...Deterministic and ensemble consensus digs a rather deep longwave trough across the western CONUS. Increasing deep moisture and instability should support continued off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances, especially Tuesday through week's end. While widespread severe weather appears unlikely, there remains some uncertainty on the timing and magnitude of ejecting shortwaves and the speed of the flow aloft, along with available instability. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

TEMPERATURES:

Below average temperatures are likely today through Thursday and possibly even Friday, as Canadian high pressure exerts its influence on Mid-America, along with mostly cloudy skies and periodic precipitation. Daytime highs mostly in the 60s and 70s are expected, with overnight lows in the 40s and 50s. As we head into Saturday and beyond, a warming trend back to above average temperatures is expected, as heights/thickness gradually increase over the Heartland. Widespread daytime highs in the 80s are probable by Sunday.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Tue May 19 2026

MVFR ceilings continue to linger over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas while VFR prevails over central and south central Kansas. Very little change is anticipated through the night although the stratus may build downward approaching IFR during the predawn hours in southeast Kansas. Light northeast winds will prevail tonight gradually veering to the east on Wednesday. Low clouds may linger over the CNU terminal through the 24-hour period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.