textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Quiet weather pattern through early Monday
- Shower and thunderstorm chances return Monday evening through midweek
DISCUSSION
Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026
As of 115 PM Saturday afternoon northwesterly midlevel flow remains across the northern and central Plains. An area of surface high pressure has settled across portions of northern KS through upper midwest. This is resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Afternoon temperatures will approach 70 degrees across all of central, south-central, and southeast KS. Transitioning into tonight, the area of surface high pressure will slide east of the area tonight, allowing southerly winds to return areawide. The increasing southerly flow will allow overnight lows will remain mild in the mid to upper 40s tonight. A weak cold front will approach the area Sunday, gradually shifting winds from the south to the west and eventually from a northerly direction. As low-level winds veer from the west Sunday, the resultant downslope flow will allow temperatures to surge into the 80s.
The potential for showers and a few thunderstorms will increase Monday through at least Wednesday as a deep southwestern US trough phases with a northern stream trough. NAM/GFS/ECMWF guidance largely agree that midlevel lapse rate profiles (5.5-6 C/km) will remain quite unfavorable for any robust convection. Otherwise, the central Plains will remain within a northwesterly midlevel flow pattern for the second half of next week. This should result in minimal precipitation chances.
AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026
VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period.
South winds currently observed across the region will continue across south central and southeast KS, while a cold front arriving later today turns winds around to the north/northeast in central KS. Confidence is somewhat low at this time in the boundary making it to GBD before stalling out, so left out wind shift there for this cycle. Speeds around 15 kts are expected areawide after sunrise with gusts in excess of 25 kts possible especially during the afternoon.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.