textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures remaining slightly below average through Monday.

- Warming trend commences early next week.

- Possible return of rain chances next weekend.

..TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND

Deterministic and ensemble guidance is beginning to show a subtle mid/upper trough racing northeast out New Mexico and into the central plains. Limited moisture should prevent the development of widespread showers, but there should be enough synoptic ascent for cloud cover and perhaps a few sprinkles on Tuesday. Persistent southerly low level flow will continue advecting warmer temperatures into the region with afternoon highs likely to rise into the 70s on Tuesday despite the increased cloud cover. Persistent deep layer troughing across the western CONUS and mid/upper ridging across the central plains should continue to encourage a marked warming trend from mid to late next week. This upper pattern should keep southwesterly upper flow across the southern Rockies promoting gradual surface pressure falls across the Front Range and High Plains supporting continued southerly low-level flow. As a result, highs Wednesday through Saturday are generally forecast to be in the upper 70s to low 80s each afternoon. This is slightly lower than in previous forecasts as mid/long range guidance shows an increased likelihood for cloud cover in response to broad, weak synoptic ascent overspreading the central plains. However, sufficient moisture for precipitation looks to hold off until late next weekend or early next week. Long range global models remain a bit all over the place, but most show another Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone developing off the coast of Mexico, eventually recurving with moisture from its remnants streaming northward into the southern and central plains by this weekend or next week. Details still remain incredibly fuzzy this far out, and trends will need to monitored over the next week or so.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sat Oct 17 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain nil through the next 24 hours.

Surface high currently stretches from the Mid Mississippi Valley down through southwest TX. As surface high shifts east, south winds will be on the increase for Sunday, with gusts in the 20-25kt range likely by the late morning hours. Confidence remains high that VFR conditions will remain in place through the next 24 hours and likely beyond.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.