textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening; a few may become severe with large hail and damaging winds

- Additional severe thunderstorm chances Friday through Monday; best chances appear to arrive Sunday and Monday

- Hot, possibly recording breaking, temperatures throughout the weekend

- Very high fire danger expected Sunday and Monday for areas generally west of Interstate 135

DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As of 230 PM Thursday afternoon, zonal midlevel flow was present across the central Plains with shortwave ridging progressing into the mid-MS valley. A weak surface trough continues to deepen across the high Plains of CO and KS with a dryline extending from northeast CO through the TX Panhandle. Satellite trends reveal a deepening cumulus field from northeast CO through the OK Panhandle. An area of convective attempts have been noted across southwest KS within a weak of surface confluence. These updrafts are developing a well- mixed boundary layer characterized by temperatures in the low 90s and dew points in the 30s. Latest HREF guidance suggests these high based storms will gradually propagate east into the evening with potential impacts for areas along and west of I-135. Modest veering of the wind profile is contributing to effective shear values of 30- 35 kt with MLCAPE values of 500-1000 J/kg. The deeply mixed boundary layer is contributing to inverted-V thermal profiles with DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg. All of that to say, the strongest storms this evening will have the potential for hail up to quarter size and damaging winds near 60 mph.

Transitioning into tonight, a northern stream shortwave trough will shunt a weak frontal zone into northern KS late tonight. In advance of the frontal zone, a 40-50 kt LLJ will transport additional low- level moisture across south-central and southeast KS. A few showers/storms are possible across southeast KS towards dawn Friday morning as the LLJ veers, contributing to a weak convergence axis from southeast KS into northeast OK. By Friday afternoon, dew points in the 50s and 60s will be prevalent across most of the forecast area. Short range guidance suggests a surface low will be positioned across northwest OK/southwest KS with a dryline extending from west- central KS through western OK. The aforementioned weak frontal zone will stall from southwest KS into portions of northeast KS. Mixed- layer inhibition is forecast to gradually diminish by late afternoon along the dryline and stalled front. Thermal profiles will remain similar to today with deep mixing and inverted-V profiles. Similar to today, the strongest storms may produce hail up to golf ball size and wind gusts around 60 mph. It's a rinse and repeat for Saturday with the dryline and stall front remaining nearby. The lack of strong large-scale ascent should keep any convection to isolated or scattered. More- widespread convection is expected along and north of the warm front Saturday night as a 50 kt LLJ overspreads the central Plains. The best chances for convection should remain generally north of I-70. The dryline will sharpen across central/western KS Sunday afternoon with another conditionally favorable environment for severe storms. The most-likely timeframe for widespread convection appears to arrive Monday as the dryline sharpens across central KS, the frontal zone sinks south into KS as a shortwave trough ejects into the central/northern Plains. Model guidance suggests the overlap of strong instability and shear for the potential for severe weather. Additional convection is possible Tuesday afternoon depending on the placement of the aforementioned frontal zone.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Widely scattered storms are drifting over southern Kansas but may remain south of the terminals early this evening before diminishing with loss of heating. Some gusty and erratic winds may be possible with speeds around 40 mph prior to their demise. Another small cluster of storms over northwest Kansas continues to drift south and east towards central Kansas but this activity is also expected to diminish as the boundary layer decouples. Some mid and high clouds will linger overnight with low level wind shear impacting south central and southeast Kansas and the low level jet ramps up this evening. Isolated or widely scattered storms may be possible towards the end of the period but no mention is planned at this time due to limited coverage.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Very high fire danger is expected for areas generally west of I-135 Sunday and Monday. A dryline will sharpen across portions of central KS each afternoon with hot temperatures, low humidity, and gusty south winds.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.