textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm through Thursday, with high temperatures in the 70s and 80s.

- Rain chances return Thursday, with some strong to severe storms possible.

- Low chances for rain to begin next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Water vapor imagery and RAP analysis this afternoon depict broad upper ridging centered over the Great Basin with weak northwest flow positioned over the Plains. Gusty south/southwest winds have been observed across the forecast area and have helped to continue promoting above normal temperatures in the 70s and low 80s. These warm temperatures are expected to persist through the middle of the week as the mid/upper ridge translates eastward. Additionally, with a stout surface pressure gradient progged to reside across the area during this period, gusty south/southwest winds are expected to continue through Thursday.

A mid/upper wave is forecast to make its way into the region on Thursday and provide support for shower and thunderstorm chances across the forecast area. This feature has relatively consistent agreement among mid/long-range models, with GFS/ECMWF/NAM prognosis situating the wave over the Rockies/High Plains by Thursday morning. The associated surface cold front is expected to progress to the southeast with a southwest-northeast orientation, which is similar to the setup this past Friday per the previous discussion. Ample instability (2000+ J/kg) and deep-layer shear (40+ kts) will likely allow for some severe storms initially during the afternoon, but boundary-parallel shear is expected to force a linear storm mode that should quickly preclude discrete mode hazards. At this point, the best chances for rain appear to lie primarily east of Interstate 135, though this may change as additional information becomes available.

Per long-range model consensus, southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue over the area through the weekend, with another mid/upper wave tracking over the Plains late Sunday into Monday. This may promote additional chances for showers and storms once again, though confidence this far out remains low. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1040 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Low level wind shear has developed over central Kansas tonight and will persist into the early morning hours. Meanwhile southerly winds will increase during the day with some low clouds possible MVFR cigs over southern Kansas during the morning hours. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24hrs.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 241 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2026

Gusty south/southwest winds alongside above normal temperatures and low humidity will support very high grassland fire danger in areas west of K-14 during the afternoon hours on Wednesday and Thursday.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.