textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances will continue to decrease across southeast Kansas into this evening with minor localized flooding concerns.

- Much cooler temperatures are forecast tonight through Sunday with frost potential likely early Saturday morning as lows drop into the lower 30s. A Freeze Watch is in effect for portions of central KS where lows near 30 are expected.

- Warming trend expected for Monday through Thursday with storm chances returning mid to late next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 133 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Currently, an upper trough is sliding across the northern Plains with a shortwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies into the central Plains. Upper ridging has started building into the western CONUS. At the surface, a low is over northern Missouri with a cold front draping down through southeast Kansas into northwestern Oklahoma and western Texas. Showers are starting to taper off in southeast Kansas with chances continuing to decrease into this evening. As we continue into tonight, colder air will move in with lows dropping into the upper 30s and lower 40s on early Friday morning.

For Friday, the colder airmass with falling heights/decreased thickness will settle in, resulting in high temperatures topping out in the low 50s across the area. This is about 15 to 20 degrees below normal making this the coldest fall temperatures we have seen so far. As the upper trough and associated surface low propagate east throughout the day Friday, an increased pressure gradient will remain over eastern Kansas. This will bring breezy conditions to the area with sustained winds between 20-25 mph and gusts up to 35 mph. Upper ridging will build into the Plains on Friday night, shifting a surface high to over Kansas. Winds will calm significantly into Saturday morning with lows dropping into the lower 30s, likely resulting in widespread frost across the area except potentially for far southeast Kansas where lows in the mid to upper 30s are possible. Lows near 30 are likely in central KS, so hoisted a Freeze Watch for this potential. Cooler conditions will persist into Saturday as expansive high pressure remains over eastern Kansas with decreased thickness. High temperatures will be in the upper 50s to near 60 on Saturday afternoon with lows dropping into the upper 30s on early Sunday morning.

On Sunday, an upper shortwave and its associated surface low will slide across southern Canada with surface troughing extending into the central Rockies, increasing the pressure gradient across Kansas. Breezy conditions will return especially for areas west of the Kansas Turnpike. Sustained winds are forecast between 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph with the strongest winds expected in central KS. High temperatures will return to the 60s on Sunday afternoon with lows in the mid 40s early Monday morning. Guidance suggests a low chance of showers late Sunday night into Monday, though confidence is low so kept mention of this out at this time.

For Monday and beyond, upper ridging will continue to influence the Plains, promoting a warming trend Monday through Thursday. Highs will return to the 70s with readings near 80 on both Wednesday and Thursday. The next chance for showers and storms will potentially arrive mid to late next week as a deep upper trough over the western CONUS will traverse towards the Rockies on Thursday, though there is still uncertainty. Stay tuned as we continue to refine this forecast.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Main aviation concerns will be low ceilings along with reduced visibility due to drizzle, fog and light rain.

Cold front has pushed through Wichita and is moving into the Flint Hills. Near or right behind the front we are seeing some drizzle/light rain along with fog that may reduce vis some. In addition, some pockets of light rain are also lingering across parts of south central KS. Also still seeing an area of showers extend from southwest OK through southeast KS as 850mb moisture transport remains in place. This will continue for the next 3-5 hours before pushing east. Behind the front we are seeing mostly MVFR cigs with pockets of IFR lingering. As drier air continues to spill south, we should see mostly MVFR transitioning to VFR over the next few hours, especially across central KS. Last but not least, strong northwest winds are anticipated area wide by late Fri morning across the entire area, with gusts in the 30-35kt range likely.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-047>049.