textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Warming trend expected this coming week with a return of highs in the middle to upper 90s for most locations by Tuesday.

- Low chances for showers and storms may return to the region by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Current water vapor imagery and RAP analysis indicate broad ridging over the Desert Southwest as a shortwave enters the Pacific Northwest. At the surface, high pressure resides over the Northern/Central Plains. A tightened pressure gradient continues to be observed particularly across southeast Kansas with a surface low shifting eastward across the Ohio Valley. As a result, breezy north winds continue to be noted across areas primarily east of Interstate 135 early this afternoon and will persist into the early evening hours. Low temperatures are once again forecast in the low to mid 60s heading into Sunday morning thanks to the slightly cooler and drier airmass in place. As the surface high shifts east toward the Great Lakes, winds will gradually turn to the east and then southeast by Sunday evening. Despite this turning throughout the day, slightly below average highs ranging from the mid 80s to low 90s continue to be expected to close out the weekend.

Increasing heights and thicknesses arising from the building of a weak upper ridge centered near the Four Corners will promote a warming trend this coming week. Short-term guidance indicates high temperatures back in the middle to upper 90s for areas along and west of I-135 on Monday, and these are expected to overspread a majority of the area by Tuesday. Additionally, some locations may even see highs near 100 degrees especially toward the end of the work week. Per the prior discussion, despite high temperatures being above average for this time of year, dewpoints remaining in the upper 50s and middle 60s should largely prevent heat indices from climbing too far above 100 degrees.

Concerning rainfall, conditions should remain largely dry through the beginning of the week thanks to large-scale subsidence from the upper ridge. A slight change to this pattern looks to arrive in the area by midweek, as model consensus highlights a stalled out frontal boundary setting up across Kansas into Nebraska due to a mid/upper wave traversing the Northern Plains. This feature will provide chances for showers and storms across the broader region early on in the week, but for now, better chances for rain across the forecast area appear to arrive during the afternoon and evening hours Wednesday through Friday. Uncertainty remains regarding coverage and intensity of any activity that we may see, so stay tuned to upcoming forecasts as additional information becomes available.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Aviation concerns will remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Clear skies will remain overnight with light north winds. Winds will eventually come around to the east by Sun afternoon and will remain on the light side. Confidence is high that VFR conditions will remain in place through this TAF period.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.