textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered thunderstorms this morning into the early afternoon hours with the best chances generally along and east of I-135

- More thunderstorm activity expected tonight into Friday

- Increasing potential for heat indices above 100 for Saturday and beyond

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As of 145 AM Thursday morning, midlevel ridging continues to reside across the western half of the CONUS with troughing across the east. Scattered thunderstorms have started to develop across portions of central KS and within an axis of 850-700 mb WAA and on the edge of a 7-7.5 C/km midlevel lapse rate plume. The WAA will continue to overspread north-central KS and areas generally along and east of I- 135. While severe weather is not expected, PW values are forecast to increase to near 2". Mean storm motions have a component orthogonal to the WAA axis and may yield a 1-2 hour period of training convection, mainly across Lincoln, Ellsworth, Saline, McPherson, and Marion counties. Should training of convection evolve, localized rainfall amounts in excess of 1" would become possible. The broad WAA pattern is expected to persist into the afternoon, again for areas generally along and east of I-135. This should linger showers/thunderstorms and cloud debris into the afternoon. Significant temperature modifications have been made for high temperatures this afternoon due to that. Afternoon high temperatures now expected to remain in the 80s for most locations. In fact, the latest HREF produces 100% probabilities for temperatures remaining below 85 degrees across the Flint Hills. These probabilities decrease towards the I-135 corridor to around 50%.

Another complex of thunderstorm activity is likely late tonight into Friday. A shortwave trough is forecast to eject into the central Plains this evening into tonight. Scattered thunderstorm development is expected along an inverted trough axis across eastern CO/western KS/western NE. As the evening progresses, convection is likely to grow upscale into an MCS and translate eastward within a 35-45 kt LLJ. Similar to this morning, a high PW environment (2-2.25") will support heavy rainfall. Continued WAA into the daytime hours of Friday will likely result in continue scattered showers/storms and cloud debris. As such, have trended high temperatures towards short range guidance with highs remaining in the 80s across the Flint Hills to the 90s for areas along/west of I-135. Additional storms are possible Friday afternoon into Saturday morning as the surface trough slides across southeast KS. The core of the midlevel ridge appears to slide back over the central Plains by next weekend. This will likely yield warmer temperatures, heat indices above 100 degrees, and minimal rain chances from Saturday afternoon into next week.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 638 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue to impact portions of central KS. The greatest impacts continue to remain in the SLN vicinity with MVFR to IFR VSBY as showers/storms move overhead. This axis of showers/storms will gradually move east over the next few hours and begin impacting CNU around 14Z. VFR should prevail at all sites by 18Z. East to southeasterly winds are expected to range from 10-15 kt. Additional showers and thunderstorms will move into the area late this evening into the overnight hours. Confidence is high enough at GBD/RSL to include a prevailing mention of -SHRA and VCTS. PROB30s were introduced for the sites along I-135 after 06Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.