textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- The stretch of hot temperatures will continue through much of the next week

- A few showers and thunderstorms are possible from late Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon, mainly across central and eastern KS

- Additional, small, rain chances return towards the middle and latter half of next week

DISCUSSION

Issued at 230 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

As of 2 AM Saturday morning, the midlevel pattern remains unchanged from Friday with midlevel ridging across the eastern 2/3rds of the CONUS and trough near the Pacific coast. A weak surface trough continues to reside across the high Plains. Within this trough axis a weak midlevel MCV continues to very slowly push across southwest KS. This is yielding showers and thunderstorms southwest of DDC. Decreasing instability and increasing convective inhibition across central and south-central KS should keep conditions dry this morning. Transitioning into the afternoon hours, another hot and mostly dry is expected with high temperatures near 100 once again. Steepening low-level lapse rates will most convective inhibition early this afternoon, especially across central KS. The midlevel ridge axis will setup across central KS, likely limiting any thunderstorm coverage to very isolated, if any at all. Further west, thunderstorm development is expected late this afternoon within the surface trough axis across the high Plains. These thunderstorms will slowly move east into the early morning hours Sunday. As the LLJ veers near dawn Sunday morning, a few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across central KS. Additionally, a complex of thunderstorms may develop within a low/midlevel baroclinic zone across eastern SD and MN late tonight. This complex may gradually move south, within this weak baroclinic zone. Considerable uncertainty exists with the southward extent this complex may propagate but it stands watching nonetheless. By Sunday afternoon, the aforementioned low-level baroclinic zone will remain across eastern KS. PW values will approach 1.75" across eastern and may yield a few airmass thunderstorms. Widespread thunderstorms are not expected, unfortunately. A similar scenario may play out Monday afternoon across eastern KS.

Mid to long range guidance suggests the midlevel ridge may briefly weaken during the middle and second half of next week as a shortwave trough ejects across the northern states. This may push a cold front towards central and southern KS with the possibility of cooler temperatures and rain chances.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 540 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period with southerly winds near 10 kt. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out near the end of the period at GBD or RSL but confidence is much too low for mention at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053- 067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.