textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe weather is likely across southeast Kansas after 4pm today with another round of storms possibly redeveloping late tonight across southern Kansas, then lingering into Thursday afternoon

- Thunderstorms are possible Friday night but a better signal for more widespread storms and potential severe weather looks to occur Saturday night

DISCUSSION

Issued at 249 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Today-Thursday

Combination of strong low level jet and tight surface pressure gradient will give way to strong and gusty winds across southeast Kansas this morning through mid afternoon. Current wind advisory is on track for these stronger winds. Westerly downslope effects along and south of the front will help boost temperatures into the upper 90s and triple digits across central/south central Kansas. Afternoon heat indices in the 100-105 range are likely for locations south of the front. Meanwhile, the frontal boundary will push southward into a very unstable airmass with storms expected to develop over Missouri today, then zipper back to the west along the front into southeast Kansas. Storm initiation looks to occur between 4pm-6pm over southeast Kansas. Storms will quickly become severe given the very buoyant airmass and deep layer wind shear around 50kts with primary risk being large hail, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall. The line of storms looks to move out of southeast Kansas by around 10pm with a possible lull in the activity.

The atmosphere then shows a signal of re-loading for another round of elevated storms with strong 700mb warm moist advection commencing along a stout mid-level baroclinic zone over southern Kansas late tonight. A favorable elevated environment of 2000-2500 MUCAPE/(1-6km bulk shear 50kts) and directional shear in the 700mb-500mb layer supports elevated storms capable of producing large hail. Of note, the wind speeds from 500mb to EL level don't really increase in speed or change direction much which might become a limiting factor for the more organized elevated supercell environment. There is potential for large hail but the very large hail typically needs that increasing wind shear further aloft(this would seem to lower the risk for very large hail). This next round of elevated convection looks to begin during the predawn hours of Thursday and persist into the early afternoon. There is also indications of this environment producing heavy rainfall over southern Kansas. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Thursday with clouds and precipitation lingering across the region.

Things look to dry out for Thursday night into Friday with slightly cooler than normal daytime highs on Friday. More showers/storms could try and develop on Friday night with 700mb warm advection starting up again. Focus will then shift to Saturday, models in good agreement with upper pattern transitioning into more of zonal flow regime and upper level wave ejecting from the Rockies out into Nebraska Saturday night. There is a decent signal for low level upslope moisture igniting storms over western sections of Nebraska southward into northwest Kansas late Saturday afternoon. The storms look to increase in coverage and become a possible organized forward propagating MCS as low level jet increases the moisture transport Saturday night. The veering strong low level jet would feed/lead the complex of storms with a possible southeast track bringing the activity into central Kansas later Saturday night. Strong buoyancy and wind shear aloft favors severe weather. There is some uncertainty with this scenario and how things could play out the following day on Sunday. GFS model pushes the surface front south of the area by Sunday with a large MCS Saturday night, while the ECMWF model keeps the front boundary over Kansas for another possible round of storms on Sunday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 609 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Low level wind shear will affect all sites early this morning. South winds will continue to increase and become gusty over south central and southeast Kansas from this morning into the mid afternoon hours. Meanwhile a cold front will push southeast across the region today. This will cause the winds to switch around to the north/northeast behind the frontal passage. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop over southeast Kansas mainly after 21Z. Additional showers and storms will be possible across southern Kansas late tonight.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 3 PM CDT this afternoon for KSZ053-070>072- 094>096.