textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic chances for off-and-on thunderstorms early this morning through next week, especially during the evening, night, and morning hours.

- Mostly near to above normal temperatures through at least the next 7-10 days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

Per deterministic and ensemble consensus, anomalous high pressure is expected to remain anchored over the southern to southwest CONUS through at least next week, sending periodic shortwaves over Mid- America in a NW flow aloft regime. This type of pattern will support periodic off-and-on thunderstorm chances through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. However, confidence is low on finer details, namely exactly when/where thunderstorm activity will track and how widespread it'll be.

For overnight through this morning, one of those previously mentioned ripples in the upper flow is expected to approach the region from the northwest, which should support a gradual uptick in showers/thunderstorms across central and eastern Kansas, as 800- 600mb warm advection increases. Modest instability combined with decent directional shear may yield a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of dime-quarter size hail and 60 mph winds, along with locally heavy rainfall. Activity should exit southern to southeast KS by around early afternoon.

The next chance of showers/thunderstorms looks to arrive later tonight (Saturday night) through Sunday morning, mainly northwest of the KS Turnpike, as another ripple in the upper flow approaches from the northwest. While widespread severe weather isn't expected, a few strong to marginally severe storms can't be ruled out. Additional thunderstorm chances look to arrive Sunday night through early Monday, mainly along and east of I-135.

As previously mentioned, these periodic thunderstorm chances look to persist just about every day through next week, mainly during the evening-night-morning hours. Seasonable instability combined with decent directional shear should yield a continued strong to severe thunderstorm threat, with wind/hail being the primary threats, along with locally heavy rain.

TEMPERATURES:

With the stout upper ridge remaining anchored within fairly close proximity to the Kansas region, near to above average temperatures are expected through at least the next 7-10 days, possibly longer. Afternoon through early evening heat indices look to be in the 95 to 105 degree range, highest over south-central and southeast KS. The "coolest" day looks to be Sunday, with highs possibly as cool as the mid 80s over east-central KS, with 90s further west/south across central and southern KS.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1233 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Main aviation concern will be storm chances early this morning.

Area remains in northwest flow aloft with a broad area of upper diffluence along with mid level warm advection remaining in place. Storms have developed over northern Nebraska and will continue to push south overnight with some additional development also possible ahead of it. This activity should get into our forecast area in the 10-14z time frame with low confidence on how widespread they will be or what exact track they will take. So for now, just ran with Prob30s at all sites around or shortly after sunrise. Outside of storms, VFR conditions are anticipated.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.