textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible late tonight across southeast KS

- Strong winds areawide early Thursday through Thursday afternoon; very high to extreme fire danger as well

- The stretch of dry and warm weather is expected to continue over the next 7 days

DISCUSSION

Issued at 153 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

As of 130 PM Tuesday afternoon, a weak midlevel low was progressing through western OK. The only noticeable impact is a midlevel cloud deck across much of southern and southeast KS. Further north, a stronger shortwave trough was advancing east along the Canadian border of ND/MN. An attendant weak surface trough axis extends from western MN trough central KS. This trough axis is behaving more similarly to a dryline with downslope (NW) winds contributing to increasing temperatures behind the trough axis. Temperatures across western KS are in the 60s/70s with 50s across eastern KS. Transitioning into tonight, this weak trough axis will continue to advance across the state with winds becoming light and variable late tonight. Light winds, clearing skies, and small dew point depressions across southeast KS may result in patchy fog formation. The latest HREF suggests a 40-50 percent chance for visibilities dipping below 3 miles. As boundary layer mixing deepens by mid- Wednesday morning, fog should dissipate.

By Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, our attention turns to a potent midlevel shortwave trough poised to eject into the northern Plains. Strong lee troughing will occur from western SD through the TX Panhandle Wednesday afternoon. As the surface pressure gradient increases late Wednesday into early Thursday morning, southerly winds will gust between 25-35 mph. Modest low-level WAA ahead of the trough will increase low-level moisture, eastern KS. Latest NAM/GFS/ECMWF forecast soundings reveal a shallow moist layer below 850mb. A brief period of drizzle cannot be ruled out across much of the area from roughly midnight through sunrise Thursday. The aforementioned trough will move through the area during the pre-dawn hours Thursday morning, shifting winds from the northwest. Deep boundary layer mixing is expected by mid to late Thursday morning with mixing heights approaching 700mb. This translates to boundary layer mean winds near 40-50 mph, with the strongest across central KS. As such, northwest wind gusts near 50 mph are expected. Latest NBM probabilistic data reveals a 50-60 percent chance for winds greater than 40 mph. The pressure gradient will rapidly decrease Thursday evening as an area of high pressure slides into the forecast area. This period of light winds will be brief as the next surface trough deepens across the high Plains with a secondary midlevel trough sliding along the Canadian border. Southwesterly winds up to 30 mph are expected throughout the day Friday. The aforementioned surface trough will slide through early Saturday, shifting winds from the north. Similar to the prior trough passages, little in the way of cold air is associated with these front. Therefore, temperatures are expected to remain mild in the lead up to Christmas with highs in the 50s to near 60 each day.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1127 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A weak cold front will move through the terminals through the afternoon and early evening hours, mainly resulting in winds becoming light and variable. The combination of light winds and clearing skies may produce patchy fog (40-50% chance for less than 3 SM VSBY across southeast KS). The most likely terminal to be impacted is CNU where MVFR VSBY are maintained from 9-16Z. Otherwise, southerly winds will quickly return towards midday Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 155 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

The threat for very high to extreme fire danger is increasing for Thursday. A strong cold front will move across the area Thursday morning shifting winds from the northwest. Boundary layer mixing heights are forecast to approach 700mb. The strong low-level wind field is comprised of mean boundary layer winds near 40-50 mph, with the strongest across central KS. This translates to northwest winds sustained 25-35 mph with gusts near 50 mph. In addition, the post-frontal airmass will be very dry with surface relative humidity in the 20-30 percent range. Finally, fully cured fuels will support rapid fire spread. As a result, widespread extreme fire danger is forecast for areas generally within and northwest of the Flint Hills. Fire danger concerns will decrease near/after sunset as wind speeds rapidly decrease throughout Thursday evening to 10-15 mph.

Another day of fire weather concerns are possible Friday afternoon as southerly winds increase to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Afternoon relative humidity values will fall into the 20-30 percent range once again. The overlap of the winds and humidity produce very high fire danger during the afternoon for areas within and northwest of the Flint Hills.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.