textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Mild today, then temperatures rebound through Thursday. Record highs possible Wednesday and Thursday.

- Outside chance of isolated showers Thursday night/Friday morning.

- Cooler weather expected for Friday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Currently, the trough axis extends from the Upper Midwest through the Mississippi Valley with a building ridge to our west. At the surface, the cold front that pushed through the area less than 24 hours ago extends from the Ohio Valley through the Southern Plains. Northerly winds have diminished early this morning with winds generally around 10 kts. In the wake of the cold front today as high pressure settles over the region, temperatures will be near normal for this time of year with highs hovering right around 60 for nearly all locations. Northerly winds will turn easterly by the middle part of the day as the high pressure over the Northern Plains shifts to our east. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are expected, especially into the afternoon hours, as we see decent moisture return to our west as the high pressure exits the region to the east. While a few sprinkles aren't out of the question for northwest Kansas, the forecast area is expected to remain dry.

As we move into Tuesday through Thursday, ridging will build back in over the region leading to another warm-up with temperatures reaching into the 70s and lower 80s for Tuesday and the middle to upper 80s for Wednesday. A few lingering clouds are expected on Tuesday, but by Wednesday, mostly clear and dry conditions will prevail. Another frontal boundary looks to sweep across the state on Thursday. However, highs will still manage to reach into the upper 80s and lower 90s ahead of this boundary. On Thursday night/Friday morning, as the front stretches across our area and pushes southeast, Gulf moisture will surge ahead of the boundary, primarily to our east. An upper-level shortwave and associated vort max will traverse the region providing the necessary lift and creating isolated shower/storm chances for eastern Kansas. Precip amounts look minimal with only our southeastern Kansas counties having a chance of up to 0.10".

Behind the front on Friday and Saturday, the trough will exit the region to the east and a surface high will settle in over the area. Slightly below normal temperatures are expected for Friday at this time with highs topping out in the middle to upper 50s. Near normal temperatures are then expected for Saturday with highs remaining near 60 degrees. By the end of the forecast period, the ridge will begin to build back in over the Plains. This will lead to increasing heights and rebounding temperatures by Sunday and into early next week.

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. North/northeasterly winds will turn southeasterly and increase later this morning with gusts between 20-25 knots expected after 17Z. Winds will then remain southeasterly through the end of the forecast period, diminishing between 00-03Z to around 10 knots. Look for BKN skies between 15-20 kft to overspread the region from west to east through the morning hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Wednesday & Thursday... Anomalously warm temperatures will return on Wednesday and continue into Thursday. Light winds on Wednesday will quell most fire weather concerns; however, RH values between 15-30% and temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s will support the potential for very high fire danger across the Flint Hills and central Kansas Wednesday afternoon. Gustier winds on Thursday along with slightly drier air and slightly warmer temperatures, especially across southern and southeast Kansas, will support very high to potentially extreme fire danger across the entire area.

Friday... Dry and breezy conditions persist into Friday and Saturday with very high fire danger possible. However, temperatures are forecast to be near or slightly below average.

CLIMATE

Issued at 200 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Record highs are possible on Wednesday and Thursday.

Wednesday (3/25): Wichita: Forecast - 87, Record - 89 (1956) Salina: Forecast - 90, Record - 93 (1907) Chanute: Forecast - 84, Record - 88 (1910) Russell: Forecast - 91, Record - 89 (1976)

Thursday (3/26): Wichita: Forecast - 94, Record - 83 (1918) Salina: Forecast - 88, Record - 86 (1910) Chanute: Forecast - 91, Record - 85 (1918)

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.