textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Showers and storms are possible generally east of I-135 this morning with small hail and gusty winds possible.

- Additional storms are forecast this afternoon through late tonight. Some of these could be strong to severe with up to golfball size hail and 60 mph winds possible.

- Mid to upper 90s return both Sunday & Monday afternoons. Heat indices between 100-104 are possible each afternoon.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms return late Monday night and will continue through much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

TODAY THROUGH MONDAY

Bottom line up front: the forecast over the next 24 hours remains quite challenging. As of 3AM this morning, a cold front was sagging across southern Nebraska with a broken line of thunderstorms moving south along with it. Currently, storms are only over portions of southeast Nebraska; however, there is some evidence that continued maintenance of this cluster of storms is likely to occur as storms move south across eastern Kansas this morning. A subtle mid/upper wave is slowly trekking eastward over the High Plains providing marginal upper level support for broad ascent. Additionally, the LLJ and subsequent moisture transport is nosing into north-central Kansas providing another subtle source of ascent. An elevated instability gradient resides across eastern Kansas, and it's likely storms will continue to be focused along this gradient as the cold front pushes southward this morning. The biggest challenges with the morning convection will be, a) the intensity of the storms as they push southward across eastern Kansas, and b) how this activity will impact storm chances this afternoon and evening. At the moment, it appears as though storms across eastern Kansas this morning will remain sub-severe, but a rouge wind gust up to 60 mph or hail stone up to quarter size cannot be ruled out.

Like mentioned previously, the evolution of this morning's activity will likely have a major impact on which locations see the potential for strong to severe scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. It's likely this morning's activity pushes the cold front/outflow boundary further south than previously forecasted. Generally speaking, short term guidance suggests the front will be stalled out across southern Kansas or northern Oklahoma this afternoon. SBCAPE along the boundary will be in the neighborhood of 2000-2500 J/kg with effective shear around 40 knots. With this environment, any storm that develops will have the opportunity to become strong or severe with up to golfball size hail and up to 60 mph wind gusts possible. Confidence is high storms will develop along the frontal boundary this afternoon, especially given surface convergence and strong diurnal heating. However, confidence is low on the exact location of the boundary when CI occurs this afternoon. Later this evening into tonight, the LLJ is forecast to ramp up again. With the mid-level baroclinic zone bisecting the CWA, ample mid-level WAA is likely to overspread the area leading to the development of scattered elevated showers and storms. Again, the confidence additional storms will develop tonight is high, but the exact location remains in question as short term guidance places this activity somewhere between southern Kansas and southeast Nebraska. Regardless, storm chances will come to an end throughout the morning hours on Sunday.

With the aforementioned frontal boundary forecast to wash out by Sunday morning, a hot airmass will return to the region by Sunday afternoon with highs well into the mid to upper 90s across most of the forecast area. Monday is forecast to be potentially hotter with some locations possibly reaching 100 Monday afternoon. With dewpoints in the mid 60s to low 70s, heat indices exceeding 100 appears likely each afternoon and evening Sunday and Monday. Monday evening into Monday night, another frontal boundary is expected to sag into portions of northern and central Kansas. This will be the focus for another round of showers and storms Monday night into early Tuesday morning across mainly central Kansas.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Only minimal changes in the forecast have been noted for next week. As mentioned in previous forecasts, a strong deep layer trough is forecast to traverse into the central/northern plains by Monday, and will be the catalyst for the aforementioned cold front sagging into Kansas by Monday night. Mid-range guidance continues to suggest the frontal boundary will be draped across Kansas from northeast to southwest through much of next week. Several perturbations embedded within zonal flow aloft will provide the lift necessary for potentially several rounds of showers and storms next week. It remains way too early to estimate how much rainfall will fall across the area, but it appears a number of locations will at least see some beneficial rainfall Tuesday through Friday of next week. Additionally, some adjustments have been made to the temperature forecast. Most notably, afternoon highs across southern and eastern Kansas have been raised on Tuesday as compressional warming ahead of the front is likely to drive temperatures into the mid to upper 90s, although 100 cannot be ruled out Tuesday afternoon in a couple of locations. The story is similar for Wednesday, though widespread cloud cover should mitigate afternoon highs some. Eventually, the cooler airmass will finish its push across Kansas for Thursday and Friday putting afternoon highs in the 80s each day.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

As of 12Z this morning, a cluster of storms was moving nearly due south along the Kansas/Missouri border producing gusty northerly winds around 30-35 knots. These storms are kicking out an outflow boundary, and a brief shift and increase in winds is possible for sites across southeast and south-central Kansas. Winds behind the outflow boundary are generally out of the northeast at around 15 to 25 knots. Breezy conditions should only last about 1-2 hours before light and variable winds resume.

Later this afternoon and into tonight, spotty showers and storms are to develop across the area, although the highest confidence is across southern and southeast Kansas. This has been covered with PROB30 groups at KICT, KHUT, and KCNU, but timing is subject to change in future TAF issuances. Storms later today and tonight could be strong to severe with large hail and wind gusts up to 50 knots. Storm chances will come to an end by the end of the TAF period.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 343 AM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.