textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Light rain & snow showers along and west of I-135 this morning. Little to no impacts expected.

- Additional isolated sprinkles & rain showers are possible this afternoon.

- Above average temperatures forecast Thursday through the beginning of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 254 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Early this morning, water vapor satellite imagery and 500 mb RAP analysis shows potent upper ridging across the western CONUS and broad upper troughing across the central and eastern portions of the country. A shortwave impulse embedded within northwest flow over the central plains is supporting the development of a few isolated rain and snow showers across western Kansas. Some of these showers have clipped portions of Barton, Kingman, and Harper counties during the overnight hours, and low chances (under 25%) have been held along and west of the I-135 corridor this morning. This wave will continue progressing southeastward and chances will wane by midday. However, steep lapse rates aloft underneath the main upper trough axis may provide a hint of elevated instability and could support additional isolated sprinkles or rain showers this afternoon. The trough slides eastward by tonight, and skies should clear through the nighttime hours tonight into Thursday morning.

The aforementioned upper ridge across the western CONUS will gradually translate eastward towards the Rockies and central plains and will support warmer temperatures during the latter portions of the week and into this weekend. Despite a couple of weak cold front between Friday and the beginning of next week, temperatures are forecast to remain above average with afternoon highs consistently in the 60s and overnight lows generally in the 30s. Long range global guidance suggests a weak system could move across the southern and central plains towards the beginning of next week. Depending on the track of this system, a few rain showers are possible Monday and Tuesday; however, chances will continue to remain quite low for now (under 20%).

AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1116 PM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Ceilings will bounce between VFR and MVFR across much of the area through 00Z this evening, then VFR conditions will prevail thereafter.

Currently, much of the area is experiencing VFR conditions. However, widespread MVFR cigs continue along and northeast of a KSLN-KCNU line. These lower ceilings will gradually spread south and west overnight and into the morning hours. During the day, most locations should experience MVFR conditions at some points between now and through this evening.

Additionally, winds will be light and variable through much of the early morning hours. Then, winds will increase out of the north to around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots in some locations this afternoon. Winds should decrease below 10 knots this evening.

Lastly, a low chance of very light rain and snow showers are possible along and west of the I-135 during the morning hours. However little to no impacts are expected.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.