textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Severe thunderstorm threat this afternoon-evening, and again Wednesday afternoon-evening.

- Additional thunderstorm chances and associated severe weather possible Friday afternoon-evening.

- Well above average temperatures through Friday, cool down for the weekend.

- Very high to extreme grassland fire danger west of I-135 today, and possibly again Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

THUNDERSTORMS:

THIS AFTERNOON--EVENING...Scattered to at times numerous thunderstorms are possible after about 3-4pm, generally along/east of a line extending from Medicine Lodge to Hutchinson to McPherson, as low-level convergence drastically increases in response to a currently veered out dryline retreating rapidly back to the northwest. Of note...thick mid and upper level clouds are streaming in from the southwest (more widespread than forecast), which may limit peak heating, increase capping, support a later initiation time, and raise questions on how many thunderstorms are able to breach the cap. Nevertheless, a strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear will support supercells capable of all severe hazards with any storms that can form. Thinking the tornado threat will be greatest between roughly 5/6pm and 9/10pm with any discrete or semi-discrete supercells, as the low-level jet ramps up increasing low-level shear/SRH. Regarding storm mode/type...while an adequate component of the deep layer shear is oriented perpendicular to the dryline, there is a modest component oriented parallel as well, which should favor a gradual transition to mixed/linear storm mode as the evening progresses and with eastward extent, especially if storm coverage proves fairly numerous/widespread.

Overnight, with increasing large scale ascent ahead of an approaching shortwave trough and the potential for decreasing convective inhibition, there could be additional thunderstorm development as far west as central KS in wake of this evening's departing activity. If capping doesn't prove too detrimental, shear/buoyancy combination would favor a continued severe weather threat.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Despite the potential for numerous thunderstorms overnight, strong southerly flow ahead of the potent shortwave approaching from the west should be enough to adequately recover the pre-dryline airmass for additional thunderstorm chances Wednesday afternoon-evening, mainly east of the Kansas Turnpike. Given the stronger forcing, thinking storm initiation could be as early as 2-3pm. Another strong combination of buoyancy and deep layer shear should favor a severe threat, although we're thinking the strong forcing in concert with the shear vectors oriented mostly parallel to the dryline would likely support a mixed/messy/linear storm mode, which could tend to limit a higher-end severe threat.

FRIDAY AFTERNOON--EVENING...Deterministic and ensemble consensus continues to support a reloading warm/moist/unstable sector by late week, as another western CONUS upper trough deepens. A sharpening dryline/cold front combination along with strong instability and strong shear look to be present. This could support another round of strong to severe thunderstorms as we head into late Friday. Still lots of uncertainty this far out regarding timing, placement, and amplitude of synoptic features, stay tuned.

TEMPERATURES/WIND:

Given rather persistent western CONUS troughing and associated lee troughing over the High Plains, breezy/gusty south winds and above average temperatures will persist through this entire work week. The warmest days look to be today, Thursday, and Friday when low-level thickness supports high temperatures in the 80s for most across the forecast area. As we head into the weekend, model consensus continues to support a cool down in wake of a strong cold front, with potential below average temperatures Saturday and Sunday, and even possible near freezing temperatures early Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail in central KS through the end of the period, while sites in south central and southeast KS may see MVFR ceilings tonight into Wednesday morning.

Gusty south/southwest winds will continue this afternoon into the overnight period before weakening Wednesday morning and turning more to the west, especially at central KS sites. Chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will begin in south central KS with an eastward progression through the evening and overnight. There remains some uncertainty as to how far west storms develop; as such, maintained the PROB30 groups for ICT and CNU with this cycle with slight changes to expected window for impacts. Storms may even develop as far west as HUT, though confidence is too low for a mention there for the 18Z issuance.

Finally, low-level moisture flowing into southeast KS through the overnight period is forecast to bring MVFR to near-IFR ceilings to CNU early Wednesday morning. Short-term models give these low chances (20%) for impacting ICT, so stay tuned to upcoming forecast cycles as more information becomes available.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 220 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

TODAY...Low relative humidity and gusty southwest winds just west of a dryline will support VERY HIGH to EXTREME grassland fire danger west of Interstate 135. A red flag warning remains in effect through 8pm this evening west of I-135.

FRIDAY...Another round of very high grassland fire danger is possible Friday afternoon generally west of Salina to Hutchinson. Stay tuned as we refine forecast details in the coming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033- 047-048-050-067-082-091.