textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Periodic rain showers with a few embedded thunderstorms will be possible from late this afternoon through Sunday. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity.

- Chances for rain showers and storms will return Tuesday and continue through late next week.

- Below normal temperatures will continue into Friday and Saturday with warmer temperatures returning on Sunday and persisting into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 331 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Currently, there is an upper shortwave moving into the Central Rockies, with southwesterly flow aloft over our forecast area. Scattered showers and storms are ongoing in southern to southeast KS as 850 mb WAA continues combined with low-level moisture advection and the right entrance region of the upper jet. PWAT values are over 1.25" which is above the 75th percentile for this time of year, contributing to efficient rainfall especially in southeast KS. As we continue into tonight, scattered rain chances will be possible across the area with the best chances in southeast KS. It is possible for showers and storms to clip central KS in the overnight hours as storms move out of eastern Colorado and western KS. Severe storms are not anticipated with this activity given the limited wind shear and instability over our area.

Continuing into Friday morning, showers and storms may persist in central KS with these chances potentially lingering into the afternoon. Below normal temperatures are forecast again for Friday afternoon as highs rise into the 70s. Additional shower and storm chances will be possible Friday night in south-central and parts of southeast KS as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. A few strong storms could be possible Friday afternoon and night as instability increases to between 1000-1500 J/kg. However, given relatively weak wind shear (less than 25 kts), severe storm chances will likely be limited. The primary hazard would be locally heavy rainfall, though small to marginally severe hail cannot be ruled out if a strong storm does develop.

On Saturday, another weak shortwave trough is progged to move into the Central Plains which will provide another opportunity for periodic shower and storms chances with the best chances generally south of I-70. The GFS and ECMWF prog the better instability to be along and south of Highway 50 with up to 1000-1500 J/kg. Similar to Friday, relatively weaker wind shear is anticipated with up to 30 kts of effective shear. PWATs will be greater than 1.30" likely leading to efficient rainfall with any shower or storm that develops. A few strong storms could be possible Saturday afternoon to night, though again severe chances with this activity are likely low. Saturday afternoon will have another day of below normal high temperatures with highs in the 70s across the area.

For Sunday, very low chances (under 20%) for showers and storms will be possible in southeast KS with much of the area expected to stay dry as upper shortwave ridging moves into the Plains. Thickness will start to increase on Sunday, promoting a warming trend across the region. High temperatures are anticipated to rise into the lower 80s which is close to normal for this time of year. These warmer and mostly dry conditions will continue into Monday with high temperatures rising into the mid 80s on Monday afternoon.

Periodic rain showers and storms may return to the forecast on Tuesday and continue through much of the week as weak shortwave troughs eject out into the Plains. Given how far out this is, forecast trends will continue to be monitored and updated. Stay tuned! For temperatures, highs are progged to be in the 80s with lows in the 60s through much of the work week.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/

Issued at 637 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Deteriorating aviation conditions as we progress through the evening/overnight hours. Currently seeing MVFR/IFR conditions over central and southeastern Kansas with VFR conditions in south-central Kansas. All locations will see cigs fall below IFR levels around 03-04Z with possible LIFR levels between 09-12Z. MVFR conditions are expected to return by mid-morning with scattered thunderstorms approaching central Kansas locations by 13-15Z. Winds will then switch out of the west/northwest after 18Z.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.