textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Breezy and mild conditions today.

- Very windy and dry conditions will fuel fire weather concerns Friday afternoon. Wind gusts could exceed 50 mph west of the I-135 corridor.

- Much colder air will arrive on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery early this morning shows strong upper ridging retrograding off of the Pacific coastline while deep troughing persists over much of the eastern CONUS. At the surface, a weak surface ridge is supporting light winds and clear skies across the forecast area allowing for ample radiational cooling to occur. As a result, temperatures this morning are dipping into the teens and lower 20s. Later today, another cold front is forecast to approach the region from the northwest. Southwesterly winds ahead of this front will lead to downsloping off the High Plains and support mild temperatures this afternoon, especially west of I-135. Ascent in association with the passing cold front will support a low chance (under 20%) of isolated showers and sprinkles late tonight into early Friday morning.

Behind the cold front, a strong pressure gradient and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support strong northwest winds across the forecast area, especially west of the I-135 corridor. Deterministic models continue to show a corridor of stronger winds extending across portions of western Nebraska and western Kansas with heightened odds of wind gusts over 50-55 mph. This corridor will generally be west of a Great Bend-Harper line. Across the remainder of the forecast area, HREF odds of wind gusts over 45 mph sit around 15 to 25% Friday afternoon. It should be noted that the deterministic GFS is extremely aggressive with wind gusts Friday afternoon. While this outcome is possible, it is currently being treated as an outlier given that the rest of the model suite is not showing this solution. Regardless of the nitty gritty details, dry air with RH values around 25% paired with these strong winds will elevate fire weather concerns. Temperatures in the 40s will be a mitigating factor for fire potential; however, fuels are dry, and any fire that can get started may spread quickly and behave erratically. So far, no headlines have been issued for Friday, but the next forecast package may need to issue at least a wind advisory for parts of the area for Friday afternoon.

A reinforcing shot of much colder air is forecast to arrive on Saturday. Afternoon temperatures on Saturday have sharply trended much colder and it's increasingly likely much of the area will struggle to see highs above freezing. Additionally, temperatures are increasingly likely to drop into the single digits Sunday morning. A bit of a breeze Sunday morning will support wind chills near or below zero for a few hours across much of the area. Temperatures will go on a rollercoaster to start off next week with temps recovering to near average on Sunday, then another cold front will bring colder air into the region on Monday. Beyond Monday, the current forecast calls for seasonable temperatures and dry conditions to persist through Thursday.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 520 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail over the next 24 hours.

Light and variable winds this morning will become more uniform out of the southwest by midday. A cold front will pass through the area this afternoon and evening, and winds will shift from southwest to northwest as the front passes through. Wind speeds between 16Z through the end of the TAF period will be between 5 and 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots across portions of central Kansas this afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 315 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Very high grassland fire danger likely Friday afternoon.

Strong northwest winds are anticipated by Friday afternoon with sustained speeds in the 25 to 35 mph range with gusts 40 to 50 mph. The higher end of these speeds will be for areas along and northwest of the KS Turnpike. Afternoon RH values are forecast to around 30% for all of the area. These conditions will produce widespread very high fire danger, with the higher values for locations west of I- 135. It should be noted that temperatures in the 40s may somewhat mitigate fire weather concerns.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.