textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Storms this morning with areas along and west of I-135 having the best chance to see a morning storm.

- Large complex of storms is still expected to develop over northwest KS this evening and track southeast overnight, potentially affecting much of the area. Damaging winds, hail up to size of quarters and heavy rain will be possible as this complex tracks east.

- Severe storms possible Thu afternoon/evening along an outflow boundary that will be over southern KS.

- Much warmer temperatures are forecast for both Saturday and Sunday, with highs in the 90s and potentially pushing 100 on Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 AM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Currently have an upper low situated over northeast ND/southern MB with a very broad area of upper high pressure encompassing the Desert Southwest through central/southern TX. Water vapor imagery also shows a weaker upper impulse lifting out of the Desert Southwest and into the Central Great Basin. At the surface, a cold front extends from northeast Nebraska into southern WY with a stationary front stretching generally along the Red River.

Fog started to develop a few hours ago as east and southeast winds continue to slowly increase low level moisture. Recent rains adding to increased moisture and cooling near the ground is also aiding in fog development. Will likely see some patchy dense fog across south central and southeast this morning.

Storms once again developed over eastern CO Tue afternoon and have been very slowly tracking east through the evening and overnight hours. Just like last night, this activity is being fueled by 850mb moisture transport over the High Plains. Last night the low level jet veered and increased which kept the convection fairly robust. However, over the next few hours, models indicate that 850mb winds will decrease as they veer. This may limit the eastward extent of the stronger storms this morning with mainly some sub-severe storms affecting areas along and west of I-135 through 16z. Once this activity pushes east, not looking for any additional daytime showers or storms.

The upper impulse over the southern Great Basin will track over the Rockies today and out into the High Plains tonight. At the same time, an additional upper perturbation will track out of the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Confidence remains high that widespread convection will develop by early this evening across southwest Nebraska/northwest KS with all models showing good low level jet convergence in this area. Just like the last few nights, the main question will be how far east the MCS will make it. With better upper support than last couple of days, feel that it will make it further east. There are also a few CAMs that dive the complex into western KS, keeping the more robust activity just west of our forecast area. Still feel that damaging winds and hail up to quarter size will be possible, along with high rainfall rates. It's likely that showers and storms will linger through much of the morning hours Thu before pushing east. MCS will kick out an outflow boundary that will be the focus for storm development by late Thu afternoon and early evening with southern KS having the highest chance to see storms along this boundary. Severe storms would be likely given impressive CAPE/deep layer shear combos.

Thu night activity will push east across much of the area and by Fri morning, should be mainly affecting eastern KS into MO. Additional storms will develop Fri afternoon across the High Plains and will try and work east late Fri night. However, feel the more widespread activity will be across the northern and northeast portions of our forecast area and will quickly push northeast as Sat morning approaches. This will be in response to increasing 850-700mb theta-e advection.

Deep upper low will dig across the Pacific Northwest/Great Basin on Sat into Sun and will setup strong lee troughing across WY into eastern CO. This will result in strong south winds this weekend along with much warmer temps. 90s will be likely Sat with upper 90s to near 100 on Sun. Confidence is high that these warm temps will continue into the start of the work week.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/

Issued at 1228 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Complicated, low-confidence aviation forecast the next 24 hours. Currently, an area of light-moderate rain with a few embedded lightning strikes will exit far southeast KS to the east by early to mid this afternoon. Additionally, patchy IFR to MVFR ceilings areawide should continue to steadily improve through early to mid afternoon as daytime heating continues.

Later tonight and persisting off-and-on through Thursday, expecting a gradual uptick in thunderstorm chances from west to east. Confidence is low surrounding timing and location of this activity, so included PROB30 groups for now at all TAF sites.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from late tonight through Friday morning for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.