textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions expected through Tuesday. Heat indices between 110 and 115 this afternoon area-wide. Then, heat indices between 105 and 110 across southern Kansas Tuesday afternoon.

- Periodic storm chances to return as soon as overnight tonight, and this will continue through Saturday morning. A few strong storms producing gusty winds cannot be ruled out, but widespread severe weather appears unlikely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 259 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

TODAY THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT/EARLY WED AM...

Much like the previous few days, water vapor satellite imagery and upper air analysis shows a strong and large mid/upper ridge across a large portion of the southern and central CONUS early this morning. As a result, another day of very hot conditions will dominate much of the central plains today. Temperatures this morning have only dropped into the low to mid 80s (as of 3AM) thanks to a persist southerly breeze keeping the boundary layer decently mixed overnight. Additionally, highs on Sunday outperformed the forecast once again, especially along and west of the I-135 corridor due to a deep and well-mixed boundary layer eroding low-level moisture across these areas. With the day starting out as warm as it is along with expectation of similar conditions today compared to yesterday, afternoon highs for today were nudged up a bit from the NBM, especially across central Kansas where highs at or above 110 are not out of the realm of possibility. This could be further supported by modest compressional warming ahead of a weak cold front forecast to sag into northern Kansas by this afternoon.

Heading into the evening and nighttime hours, this frontal boundary will become the focus for potential storm chances overnight into Tuesday morning. The aforementioned mid/upper ridge that has been the primary driver for this ongoing heatwave across the central plains will begin to shift ever so slightly southwest during the day today. Meanwhile, a subtle shortwave trough embedded in weak northwest flow aloft will provide a source of modest synoptic ascent over the northern High Plains this evening into tonight. This along with upslope flow at the surface along the the slow-moving frontal boundary should trigger numerous storms across northeast Colorado, northwest Kansas, and western Nebraska this evening into tonight. Short term guidance points to this convection moving eastward along an axis of instability generally located along and north of the frontal boundary (which should be in the vicinity of I-70 by late tonight). Pretty much all of the CAM guidance suggests that convection will manage to make its way into portions of central Kansas either very late tonight or into Tuesday morning. However, given persistent very warm mid-level temperatures, any activity will likely struggle, and the intensity of this activity is not anticipated to be severe as a result. However, gusty winds cannot be ruled out, especially if convection begins to dissipate across northern and central Kansas.

With the mid/upper ridge continuing to shift southwest on Tuesday, a mid-level baroclinic zone is forecast to reside over the area with weak, but somewhat persistent, WAA expected along this feature. As a result, isolated convection may fester across central and eastern Kansas for much of the day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the previously mentioned weak frontal boundary will remain draped across the forecast area with temperatures along and south of this boundary expected to soar into the 100s once again Tuesday afternoon. With just a touch more moisture in the atmosphere, it appears likely heat indices will be between 105 to 110 along and south of US-54 during the afternoon and early evening hours. By Tuesday night, eyes will turn out west again as another loosely organized complex of showers and storms appears likely to develop across the High Plains and march eastward overnight. However, similar to Tuesday morning, mid-level temperatures will still be quite warm late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning. Thus, any convection coming off the High Plains will struggle as it moves eastward.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

Assuming convection pans out as currently forecast Wednesday morning, much of the region will continue to feel the influence of the mid/upper ridge, which will be centered over the Four Corners Region by mid week. Thus, afternoon temperatures will still rise into the mid to upper 90s. Fortunately, dewpoints should only be in the upper 60s to low 70s, so Wednesday afternoon heat indices will be generally between 100 and 105, mainly across southern Kansas. With the mid/upper ridge located over the southwestern CONUS weak northwest flow aloft will generally reside over the central plains for the second half of the week. Mid range guidance remains consistent with showing a parade of subtle shortwave troughs embedded within this flow progressing across the central plains Wednesday through Saturday. As a result, a few rounds of showers and storms are possible, mainly during the overnight hours Wednesday through Saturday. Currently chances remain somewhat low given some uncertainty in the forecast, and at this time, severe weather appears unlikely. However, stay tuned for updates to the forecast over the coming days as details are subject to change. Regardless of storm chances at the end of the week, model consensus suggests a brief reprieve from hot conditions with temperatures returning to near average by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/

Issued at 539 AM CDT Mon Jul 27 2026

VFR conditions should generally prevail over the next 24 hours; however a slight chance of storms is forecast for central Kansas Tuesday morning.

Currently, winds remain out of the south at around 10 to 15 knots across the area. Throughout the day, a weak frontal boundary will sag into the region, and locations across central Kansas could see winds shift to northeasterly this evening into tonight with wind speeds around 5 to 10 knots.

Meanwhile, isolated showers and storms will be moving eastward across northern Kansas late tonight into Tuesday morning. Omitted the mention of this possibility in the TAFs for now given high uncertainty, but this may change in future forecasts.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032- 033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100. Heat Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.