textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Shower/storm chances increasing tonight into Sunday, especially across southern and eastern KS.

- Rain chances will be on the decrease after Sunday with unseasonably hot temperatures on the way for Tuesday through Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 158 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows an upper circulation about to move into far southwest TX with a northern stream wave about to move into the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Very moist airmass remains in place across the eastern half of Kansas with widespread dewpoints around 70 along with unseasonably high PW values.

Southern stream upper impulse will continue lifting northeast tonight and by Sat afternoon will be situated over southern portions of the TX Panhandle. Showers and storms are expected to gradually work their way north into our forecast area on Sat, reaching southern and southeast KS by the afternoon hours. Confidence is low on how far north showers/storms make it during the day Sat. Wouldn't be shocked if we see a few storms further north than expected in any area that can get some afternoon sun. By Sun morning, upper low will be located over central KS and will continue lifting northeast through the day. Still looking like the eastern KS will have the highest rainfall chances Sat night into Sun morning and by the afternoon hours precip will be mainly confined to extreme eastern KS into MO. Main threat from storms still looks to be heavy rainfall along with wet microburst winds given limited amount of shear and a very anomalous PW airmass still in place.

For Mon morning, the pesky upper impulse will be tracking across the Mid Mississippi Valley with broad upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest through the Northern Rockies. There are a couple model solutions that try and bring an MCS out of central Nebraska and into northern KS by Mon afternoon, but currently have low confidence in this panning out. So feel that Mon still looks mostly dry with the better precip chances east of us.

Through at least the middle of next week we are looking for persistent upper troughing from the Pacific Northwest, through the Great Basin and into the Northern Rockies. Meanwhile, upper riding will remain from the Southern Plains through the Southeast CONUS. This setup will result in hotter temps overspreading the area startling Tue and continuing through at least Thu. With dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s to low 70s, we should see some dangerous heat indices during this period, especially across eastern KS. There are some hints at a cold front attempting to push into the area Thu night into Fri as some shortwave energy tracks across the Northern Plains.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/

Issued at 1045 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low clouds in MVFR/IFR category look to develop over south central and southeast Kansas around daybreak. The low clouds will gradually scatter out over south central Kansas, but could be stubborn to erode over southeast Kansas. In addition, a upper level wave will move slowly northward from Oklahoma into Kansas on Saturday. This looks to spark off scattered showers and storms beginning Saturday afternoon with activity lingering into the late night hours.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.