textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Above average temperatures likely through at least the next 7 days.

- Widespread rain likely late Friday afternoon through the first half of Saturday night.

- Very mild, windy, and dry conditions next week which will lead to periodic elevated grassfire danger.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

TEMPERATURES AND WIND:

Per model consensus, fast, amplified upper flow coming off the Pacific will keep cold Arctic air bottled up well north of the region through at least the next 7 days. Consequently, above average temperatures look to persist across the region. The warmest days look to be next week, as southwesterly flow aloft develops over Mid-America, acting to increase thickness and low- level south-southwesterly flow. Daytime temperatures in the 60s-70s look likely per NBM probabilities. The potential for record highs and record warm lows is highest Tuesday the 17th. Furthermore, fast flow aloft over the Front Range will support periodic deep lee troughs and associated periodic stout/gusty south-southwest winds across the region next week.

PRECIPITATION:

The full model suite has locked onto a loosely common solution for the late Friday through Saturday night weather system, with an amplified/deep upper low traversing the central and southern plains. While run-to-run wobbles continue, the overall consensus is favoring the highest rain chances over generally the southern one-half to three-fourths of Kansas. Of note, the latest GFS and GEFS continues to support much lower rainfall amounts compared to most other model solutions, something that will need to be watched.

Confidence is fairly high on timing of rainfall, with consensus favoring a start time of about late Friday afternoon or early evening, and ending for most by around midnight Saturday night. However, wouldn't be surprised to see at least scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms as early as midday Friday, given strengthening 850-700mb warm/moist advection.

Given the strong lift amidst anomalous precipitable waters and some low-end instability, thinking rainfall amounts upwards of 1-2+ inches are possible, especially over southern Kansas and points south, with locally higher amounts likely. A few embedded thunderstorms are possible over southern Kansas, supporting those locally higher rainfall rates and amounts, but severe weather is not expected. As far as precipitation type goes, the lack of cold air across the region will keep precipitation all liquid.

Relatively minor wobbles in the model-progged amplitude/strength and track of the upper low will likely continue, which will influence forecast rainfall amounts. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details the next 12-24 hours.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1126 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at all sites through the end of the period. Relatively light south/southwest winds will continue to turn to the north/northeast as a weak surface trough proceeds eastward through the area.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

NEXT WEEK...A return to well above average temperatures in the 60s-70s, periodic stout/gusty south-southwest winds, and dry conditions are likely throughout next week. This warm, windy, and dry combination should support periodic elevated grassfire danger. There continues to be some potential for critical/red flag fire danger at times if dewpoints/humidity can remain low enough, especially Tuesday. Stay tuned as we continue to refine forecast details in the coming days.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.