textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Lingering showers and storms this morning could produce gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Localized flooding is possible.

- Heat makes a brief return today and Monday with heat indices above 100 possible each afternoon.

- A cold front slowly arrives Monday night, and will linger across the area for much of this week. Several rounds of showers and storms are forecast for this week with strong to marginally severe storms and localized flooding possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY EVENING

Early this morning, numerous showers and storms continue to linger across portions of central, eastern, and southeast Kansas thanks to persistent mid-level WAA overspreading the area. While a couple of storms were able to produce strong wind gusts earlier, it seems as though the potential for severe wind gusts has significantly decreased. The main concern this morning is the potential for localized flooding from heavy rainfall. However, the coverage of heavy rainfall is expected to quickly decrease as we go through the morning hours.

All of this rain and cloud cover will leave behind a residual boundary that is forecast to be somewhere between the KS/OK border to along the US-56 corridor this afternoon. While chances are low, strong diurnal heating could be enough to support an uncapped environment, and sufficient convergence along this boundary may be enough to trigger a couple of isolated storms this afternoon and early evening. This activity will be primarily diurnally driven, so as convective inhibition builds towards sunset, storm chances should decrease fairly quickly. It's possible any storm that develops could be strong with small hail and gusty winds given MLCAPE between 2500-3000 J/kg. However, the intensity will be limited by marginal shear, generally in the neighborhood of 20 knots. In addition to the low storm chances, hot conditions will return to portions of the area, mainly across south-central and southeast Kansas. With temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, and dewpoints in the 70s, portions of southern and southeast Kansas could see heat indices exceed 100 this afternoon.

The hot airmass will expanding across much of the central plains heading into Monday thanks to potent southerly low level flow out ahead of a slowly approaching cold front throughout the day. Due to an expected tight pressure gradient across the area, Monday could be quite windy with sustained winds around 20 to 30 mph and gusts between 35 to 45 mph at times. The windiest conditions will be along and west of I-135 during the afternoon hours. These hot and windy conditions will contribute to a brief period of very high grassland fire danger west of I-135 during the afternoon hours on Monday; though dewpoints in the low 60s and recent rainfall should mitigate fire weather concerns.

...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

Only minimal changes in the forecast have been noted for this week. As mentioned in previous forecasts, a strong deep layer trough is forecast to traverse into the central/northern plains by Monday, and will be the catalyst for the aforementioned cold front sagging into Kansas by Monday night. Mid-range guidance continues to suggest the frontal boundary will be draped across Kansas from northeast to southwest through much of this week. Several perturbations embedded within zonal flow aloft will provide the lift necessary for potentially several rounds of showers and storms this week. Guidance is coming into better focus with where the potential for heavy rainfall will be, and it will generally be along and north of I-70 Monday night through Wednesday where multiple rounds of training thunderstorms could potentially lead to flooding concerns. Additionally, mid-range guidance is suggesting environmental instability and shear may be enough to support a few strong to marginally severe storms with large hail and damaging winds being the primary concern.

Minimal adjustments have been made to the temperature forecast. Afternoon highs across the southern half of Kansas remain on the warm to hot side of things with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 90s, and afternoon heat indices near or slightly above 100. Temperatures have been raised slightly for Thursday as mid-range guidance has trended slower with the cold front pushing across Kansas. However, cooler temperatures are still forecast to arrive by this end of the week across the forecast area.

AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/

Issued at 1158 PM CDT Sat Sep 12 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and storms will continue to develop and move slowly eastward across the region overnight. Thunderstorms could affect a few TAF sites across central and southeast Kansas through the overnight hours. Low clouds in IFR category look to develop over central Kansas around daybreak and will linger through the morning hours. Conditions will improve with winds remaining from the east and southeast across the area on Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 301 AM CDT Sun Sep 13 2026

Unseasonably hot temperatures and gusty southerly winds could support very high fire danger west of I-135 Monday afternoon. Southerly winds will be sustained at around 25-30 mph with gusts around 40-45 mph. That being said, antecedent rainfall and dewpoints in the low 60s should mitigate fire weather concerns somewhat.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.