textproduct: Wichita
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Much cooler with a reinforcing shot of cold air late Saturday.
- Moderating temperatures for the upcoming work-week with the dry weather conditions persisting.
DISCUSSION
Issued at 116 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
An upper level ridge was situated over the Southwest U.S. while a mean larger-scale trough continued to impact the Great Lakes/Northeast areas. Meanwhile, northwest mid/upper flow prevailed across the central CONUS. Another shortwave trough moving through the mean larger-scale trough over the Great Lakes area will drive a reinforcing shot of cold air south over the area on Saturday bringing much colder air to the area Saturday night into Sunday. The NBM probability of temperatures remaining less than 32 degrees on Sunday afternoon are greater than 90 percent for areas along and east of a line from Independence to Newton to Lincoln. The good news, this batch of cold air will be short-lived with rising heights/increasing thickness Mon-Wed supporting rising temperatures and dry weather conditions.
Temperatures are expected to rebound on Monday with some locations seeing a 20+ degree increase over values on Sunday. Above average temperatures are expected to persist through the upcoming week peaking on Wednesday as another cold front arrives. The cold front will usher in only slightly cooler air Thu-Fri while remaining above normal for mid/late December. Dry conditions are expected to linger through the upcoming week.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/
Issued at 532 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025
Main forecast challenge for the period lies in MVFR cigs in central KS and the timing of a wind shift Saturday afternoon.
Satellite/surface obs indicate stubborn MVFR ceilings around 2kft impacting GBD/RSL/SLN. Short-term models have not handled the evolution of this so far so decided to hold sites at MVFR through the early morning hours. Current thoughts are daytime mixing early Saturday may allow for clouds to scatter out a little bit by late morning but this may not be realized if current trends hold.
Winds will gradually become more south/southeasterly through Saturday morning before a cold front turns them back around to the north by 19-20Z at all sites. Stay tuned to upcoming cycles as additional information becomes available regarding this upcoming feature.
ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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