textproduct: Wichita

KEY MESSAGES

- Can't rule out a stray thunderstorm or two early this morning through early Friday, mainly along/west of I-135.

- Low chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Sunday evening through mid to late next week, mainly northwest half of KS.

- A prolonged period of well above average temperatures this weekend through next week (and possibly beyond).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 219 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES:

EARLY THIS MORNING--EARLY FRIDAY...While chances appear low at this time and most locations will remain thunderstorm-free, can't rule out a few isolated thunderstorms through this period, mainly along/west of I-135. Slight chances this morning are tied to weak 850-700mb warm/moist advection emanating from a possible MCV approaching over western KS. For later this afternoon, the airmass looks unstable and weakly capped which may support an isolated thunderstorm or two. For late tonight through early Friday, another round of weak 850-700mb warm/moist advection may support additional slight thunderstorm chances. In all cases, weak deep layer shear will prevent storm organization and severity, although hefty downdraft CAPE may support an isolated severe wind gust, especially late this afternoon-evening.

SUNDAY EVENING--MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...The upper ridge finally shifts east from the southwest to the south-central and southeast CONUS by this weekend, as various shortwaves gradually dig across the northern and western CONUS. This pattern change should allow a weak cold front to move in from the north and stall across the region, with low chances for off-and-on thunderstorms Sunday evening through mid to late next week, especially across the northwest half of Kansas.

TEMPERATURES:

Deterministic and ensemble consensus is in good agreement surrounding a prolonged period of triple digit to near triple digit heat from this weekend through much of next week (and possibly beyond), as an anomalous southwest CONUS upper ridge shifts east over the south-central and southeast CONUS. The longevity of this heat wave will be determined by how far south a stalled frontal zone reaches, which at this time looks to remain mainly over the northwest half of Kansas. Some relief amidst this incoming heat wave will be lower dewpoints (thinking NBM/forecasted dewpoints may be a bit too rich given global model consensus) and breezy/gusty south to southwest winds aiding in evaporative effects on skin.

AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Aviation concerns are expected to remain on the low side through the next 24 hours.

Pattern is expected to remain mostly unchanged through this TAF period. Storms may develop over northwest Nebraska late this afternoon and will try and track south this evening. Current thinking is that they will not make it into the forecast area. Some additional development will be possible after 09z over eastern KS into the Flint Hills along a mid level baroclinic zone. If this pans out, coverage does not look high enough to insert into TAFs at this time.

ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.