textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

- Unseasonably mild weather lasts through Saturday. Highs will be in the 60s and 70s.

- Low to Medium rain chances, including a few thunderstorms from Wednesday Night through Saturday Night.

- Colder conditions return to the area Saturday Night into early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 215 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Surface high pressure has shifted to the east coast as a deep low pressure system moves into Montana. This will induce increasing southerly flow today over our region as the low moves into the Dakotas. Low clouds continue to expand and spread northward through MS, AR and southwest TN. The clouds will slowly shift northeast into northwest portions of AL this morning, as high clouds also overspread the region. Temperatures will warm into the middle to upper 60s for afternoon highs, with dew points in the upper 40s to lower 50s advecting northeast. South winds of 10-15 mph with gusts of around 20 mph are expected.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 939 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Dry weather will continue into Wednesday, as high pressure off of the southeast coast brings a southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley. A milder trend will be noted Tuesday night, with low temperatures a good 5-10 degrees warmer, only in the 50s. Denser high altitude clouds will keep similar warmth on Wednesday, with highs in the upper 60s to around 70. Mild lows are again expected Wednesday night with lows in the upper 50s to around 60. Noticeably warmer conditions are forecast Thursday, with highs rising into the 70s.

A steady southerly flow for a few days will bring sufficient moisture to the area. The models continue at showing lower end shower chances late Wednesday night into Thursday. Wetting rains, aka Quantitative Precipitation Forecast far as amounts remains low through the day Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 939 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

At the start of the period, the first of several mid level lows will be moving through the Great Lakes Region. An associated surface cyclone will be trekking across the Ohio Valley bringing a risk for severe weather to that region. Locally, this surface cyclone looks to pass north of us and drag a cold front through from late Thursday night through the day on Friday. Mid week warm air advection will place us in a favorable thermodynamic environment for severe weather, however without proximity to the surface low, we will be lacking necessary forcing. Thus, at this time the passage of the front will be marked with increased rain chances Thursday night into Friday with chances for some embedded thunderstorms. We will be closely watching the track of the surface low to continue to assess our severe weather chances.

From Friday through Sunday, the passage of several upper level disturbances will blend together amounting to prolonged low to medium (30-60%) rain and thunder chances each day. Rain chances will decrease as flow gradually transitions to the NW through Monday, cooling highs from the 70s on Friday to the low 50s on Monday. Lows look to follow a similar trend cooling back below freezing by the start of the new work week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 PM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

A return of lower level moisture in the late night into Tue morning could result in MVFR CIGS ~2500 ft AGL, more so over NW AL and KMSL. Given how far east it may spread, have a 3000ft AGL CIG at KHSV in the morning. The lower clouds should scatter somewhat in the afternoon from daytime mixing. Light SE-S winds tonight should become S-SW at 10-15kt from the late morning into the evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.