textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

- Low chances for patchy freezing fog tonight.

- Very low chances (20% or less) for a very short window where a wintry mix in extreme southwestern portions of northern Alabama could mix in with rainfall around sunrise Thursday morning.

- Chances for rain occur at times Thursday through Saturday night, with medium to high chances late this afternoon into tonight before ending Friday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A mixture of mid and high cloud cover is periodically moving across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this evening. Some lower cloud cover can be seen advancing east from Arkansas into western Mississippi at this hour too. Expect that to move into NW Alabama between 2 and 3 AM.

0Z soundings from both BMX and BNA are both very dry, especially below 850 mb. Rainfall is concentrated over the western Gulf coast area, where a surface low is moving off to the east northeast. This movement would keep the strong forcing pretty far south of northern AL. Though NBM ensemble is showing some 20 to 40 percent PoP that move into NW Alabama and towards Cullman county, the dryness of the soundings and placement of stronger forcing call into serious question whether any precipitation can fall towards and just after daybreak on Thursday. Left a token 20 percent chance of rain, possible mixed with a sleet pellet or two from Franklin county (AL) ESE into southern Lawrence and Cullman counties. However, this should not last long and by 15Z expect any precipitation to be rain.

Models continue to show much stronger forcing moving east into the northwestern Alabama as a cold front pushes southeast and moves the surface low to the northeast a bit more. Expect that to occur mainly after 3 PM. There might be a better window for some brief sleet development around 3 PM (when the warm nose may be close to 1 to 3 degrees) and strong forcing moves into NW Alabama.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

However, confidence is lower given the strength of the warm nose by 6 PM (4-6 degrees) that the sleet will continue. The precipitation type would likely change to cold rain, given the strength of the forecast warm nose with temperatures below that only dropping to between 32 and 34 degrees at their lowest. In most guidance these temperatures only increase slowly into Thursday night. Thus, for now kept rain after 6 PM tonight. This rainfall could become moderate at times before exiting the area during the morning hours on Friday (maybe a bit sooner in NW AL).

By Friday afternoon, expect dry conditions to be the rule. Not much cold air behind this initial front, as it basically stalls over southern Alabama and Georgia. So no real push to much colder air into the area. However, lingering cloud cover will likely keep highs a bit cooler. Highs on Friday are expected to climb into the mid 40s.

Saturday should be a bit warmer, with zonal flow continuing and some clearing in the afternoon. Highs should return to the lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025

Some clearing Saturday night, but guidance shows mostly cloudy conditions returning around midnight and continuing through the overnight hours. Lows in the 35 to 40 degree range look reasonable.

The main feature to watch through the long term forecast will be the passage of a 500 MB trough through the eastern CONUS. Through the weekend, the trough will amplify and move from the Plains into the eastern CONUS. In association a surface low pressure system looks to pass through the area from Sunday and Sunday night.

Deterministic models maintain high uncertainty regarding if any precip will be present with the frontal passage. As such, stuck with blended guidance that reflects the low chances of rain (~20%) from Sunday night. If we do receive precip, especially near daybreak Monday morning, we will have to keep an eye on temps as they will likely near or just below freezing which could produce brief and hopefully non-impactful wintry precip. We have very low confidence in this however, just an interesting (non-impactful) tidbit to keep an eye on.

Through the beginning of the work week, zonal flow aloft paired with high pressure influence will promote non impactful weather. Temps will have the opportunity to warm slightly with highs in the 40s and 50s. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain from Wednesday forward as models struggle to resolve our next system.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 18Z. Expect CIGS between 5000 and 10,000 feet to push into KMSL after 08Z and after 10Z at KHSV. A prob30 group was included for CIGS becoming MVFR with some -RA between 21Z and 23Z mainly. -SL may need to be added in this period, but left out for now. Expect predominant -RA to push into KMSL around 04/23Z and a bit later at KHSV at 05/00Z. At this time, not expecting a change over back to any wintry precipitation.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.