textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

- High chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms today into Monday.

- Excessive rainfall and flash flood risk increase Monday into Tuesday.

- Heat Risk increases by late this week. Heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees Thursday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 252 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Rain rates have overperformed from the earlier forecast, with widespread slow-moving training occurring throughout northern AL into southern middle TN. Widespread rainfall amounts have reached 1-2" with higher amounts up to 5-7" observed. Additional rainfall amounts of 1-4" are likely throughout the area into this evening, which will further worsen flooding issues. In addition to deteriorating road conditions, creeks have also overrun bridges in portions of NW AL and rivers have rapidly increased due to runoff. The Flint River at Brownsboro in Madison County has risen into Action Stage (15 ft) and is forecast to push into Minor Flood Stage (17 ft) within the next few hours. This river will crest in moderate flood stage (19 ft) around 06Z tonight before beginning to gradually decline. A Flood Warning is in effect for this river basin through tomorrow. Newest CAMs show instability forecast to increase higher than previously- with Sfc CAPE values reaching ~2000 J/kg and low level lapse rates reaching ~7 C/km across portions of NW AL. In turn, we will be monitoring for a few stronger storms capable of producing strong wind gusts in addition to heavy rainfall. However, the primary concern at hand continues to be potentially life-threatening flash flooding throughout the area. PWATs are forecast to continue to be 2-2.5" through the afternoon, supporting continued efficient rainfall production within showers/storms. Saturated soils will continue to cause downed trees throughout the area with subsequent power outages expected. Continue to use extreme caution if outdoors or on roadways. Most of the area will see rainfall decrease around 02-03Z tonight, however, recent CAMs have portrayed lingering rainfall along the southern portions of the area overnight into Monday morning.

Bottom Line: Please do not go around barricades or cross into flood waters (even those without barricades or signs). Just 6 inches of rainfall can sweep away an adult and 12 inches of rain can sweep away small cars. As nightfall arises, flooding will be harder to see. Use extreme caution on roadways.

Previous AFD: Clusters of moderate to heavy rainfall continue to shift northeastward through the TN Valley this morning as a result of a low to mid level shortwave advancing through the region. 12Z soundings at both JAN and BMX indicate PWATs of ~2.1 to 2.2", which is above the 90th percentile (near max values) at both sites. Therefore, efficient rainfall production is expected to continue through the morning hours. Additionally, slow storm movement and the potential for backbuilding/training will increase the overall flash flood risk through the afternoon. Widespread rainfall amounts up to 0.5-1.5" is likely today with isolated higher amounts up to 3-4" in areas where training occurs. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has continued to include all of the area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall. Weak lapse rates and relatively cooler temperatures will limit instability this afternoon, preventing strong storms from being a concern. For those with outdoor plans today, we continue to urge caution on roadways as ponding of water and subsequent hazardous driving conditions are likely. Between 00Z and 03Z tonight, showers should gradually begin to decrease in coverage. Recent CAMs continue to keep light to moderate showers over portions of the area overnight with lingering cloud cover, which should prevent fog formation.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Rain chances are forecast to ramp back up Monday into Tuesday as a shortwave trough shifts east into the upper TN Valley. WPC has the TN Valley outlooked in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall Monday and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Tuesday as PWATs continue to climb into the 2-2.2" range. Antecedent rainfall and saturated soils will contribute to ponding of water in roadways and the overall risk for flash flooding. Due to these saturated soils, trees have a higher risk of falling even with sub-severe winds. Highs are forecast to gradually warm during this time as well, reaching the low 90s in portions of the area by mid week. More on this in the long term section below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

On Wednesday, a trough will push out of the northwest U.S. and through the Northern Plains, disrupting the vast ridge of high pressure that extends across much of the central, southern and eastern CONUS. The ridge will further be dampened as a wave of energy rounds the base of this trough on Thursday and as the trough progress eastward across southern Canada on Friday. While we are under high pressure during the extended forecast, it won't feel like it. We'll be trapped in with plenty of moisture for diurnally driven convection each day (low to medium chances 20-50%). We will also turn up the heat as temps stay in the 80s on Wednesday, then the upper 80s/lower 90s arrive on Thursday through Saturday. It is important to note that this set up will also push the heat index values into the upper 90s/lower 100s Thursday through Saturday. If trends continue and values get a little bit higher, a Heat Advisory may be needed on Friday. Yes, it's June, however we do not feel acclimated to the high heat and humidity for this long, so ensure that you stay hydrated and slow down to prevent heat related illnesses.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

IFR to MVFR conditions (with a low chance of periodic LIFR conditions today) are forecast to dominate both KMSL and KHSV through most of the TAF period as heavy showers move through the area. LIFR conditions will be likely during the early morning hours on Monday as ceilings drop to around 300 ft.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for ALZ001-005-006-009.

TN...Flood Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TNZ076-096-097.