textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- There is a low chance of few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms Friday evening mainly in northwest Alabama. Gusty to locally damaging winds and lightning are the main threats.

- We are monitoring a low chance of severe storms next Monday, mainly in the evening and overnight.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 319 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

An overall tranquil night is ongoing across the Tennessee Valley under clear skies. Temperatures will continue to drop a few more degrees until daybreak with morning lows in the mid 50s in NE AL and upper 50s further west. Another warm day is forecast with afternoon highs reaching the low to mid 80s. The feature to watch is the current decaying MCS across portions of AR/OK/MO. As it pushes an outflow ahead of it during the day, new storm development is expected as daytime heating destabilizes the atmosphere across portions of AR/MS. This new MCS will eventually push southeast towards the local forecast area during the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The amplitude/strength of the upper ridge will likely push any convection into northwest Alabama at the earliest between 7 PM and 10 PM. Shear still looks very weak in the afternoon and even into the evening hours. Confidence in severe storms Friday afternoon and evening has dropped with current guidance updates this evening. NW Alabama is still outlooked for a low risk of strong to marginally severe storms. Would not be surprised in later issuances if that is dropped to general thunderstorm risk though. Still expecting any low threat of stronger to marginally severe storms to remain primarily in western portions of NW AL and likely be between 7 PM and 9 PM.

An area of rain and elevated thunderstorms will continue to push southeast into northern Alabama tonight into early Saturday morning. Around one half of an inch with maybe some locally higher amounts close to 1 inch look possible.

Several sets of guidance show the trough axis pushing southeast into NW GA stretching SW into central Alabama between 10 AM and 1 PM. Surface winds in several soundings as far south as the Cullman county area show WNW to NW winds between 18Z and 21Z. So, although shear does increase, thinking subsidence behind the trough axis will keep severe storms from forming, especially with upper level ridging amplifying again over it. That being said, some light rain could linger into the afternoon hours.

The upper ridge shifts east again Saturday night into Sunday while continuing to amplify. This should keep the Tennessee Valley dry through the day on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning should drop a bit back into the mid to upper 50s, with some slightly drier air moving into the area.

With strong ridging aloft though building over the area and 925 mb temperatures rebounding to around 20 degrees again during the day on Sunday, highs should push back into the 80 to 85 degree range. Guidance shows the strong upper low that was rotating over southwestern Canada pushing northeast in response to the amplifying upper ridge over the southeast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

By Sunday night into Monday, the parent upper low continues to move further northeast into central Canada. As the same time, a secondary low forms over the eastern Rockies and moves northeast into the northern Plains area. Cyclogenesis occurs and a frontal boundary forms stretching from the upper low through Missouri into Arkansas. This will likely be another round of convective activity in those areas, possible strong to severe. Though the amplified upper ridge does shift east during the day on Monday, it is still very amplified over the eastern seaboard into the Carolinas. This will slow the progression of the frontal boundary eastward. However, a strengthening low level jet will occur ahead of it. This does produce a stronger area of shear that moves into northwestern Alabama later that evening ahead of the front. Mid- level lapse rates are very steep late in the afternoon into the evening hours in NW AL. Helicity is fairly strong as well, but wet-bulb zero heights are fairly high. The newest guidance shows a very strong cap developing around 700 mb. This would limit severe potential, despite the other parameters. However, likely there will still be enough elevated instability (~ 1000 J/KG) for the potential for some large hail to develop. Damaging winds look a bit less likely given the strong cap in place though. Not sure how far east this threat will extend, as we lose much of the surface based instability between 10 PM and 1 AM.

The upper ridge really shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, as the surface front slow to a crawl just northwest of the area. This may produce a more active period of thunderstorm activity towards the middle and end of next week across the Tennessee Valley into central AL and GA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

VFR conditions and light winds expected to continue this morning. Winds will increase with gusts around 15 knots tomorrow afternoon ahead of an approaching. Latest CAMs have showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned system arriving from west to east between 22z at MSL and 00z at HSV. Low confidence in timing and if these storms occur, therefore left IFR cigs due to TSRA in a PROB 30 group. Best chance to see thunderstorms is at MSL. Returning to VFR by tomorrow night with light winds.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.