textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- High chances for showers and storms on Saturday with a low chance of severe storms capable of damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- 1-2 inches of rain with higher amount to 3 inches on Saturday could lead to localized flash flooding.

- Medium chances (50-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday then decrease to low chances (20% or less) through mid week, with the threat for dangerous heat returning toward the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A decaying complex of thunderstorms could be seen over northwest AL early this evening as lightning has all but subsided and only light to moderate rainfall remains mainly west of I-65. We expect this activity to continue to weaken through the evening as the airmass over the TN Valley is much less conducive for maintaining storms than what was seen over northern MS and western TN earlier this afternoon. Moisture will continue to increase over the area through the overnight hours as an intensifying upper low digs south through IL and an attendant sfc low pushes a cold front closer to the area as it tracks through the lower OH River and MS River valleys. Cloud cover is expected to remain dense through the morning with generally light and variable winds. Lows will be warmer tonight, only falling to the low to mid 70s.

Around sunrise, there is fairly consistent model agreement that we will see thunderstorms begin to enter the area related to a developing complex of storms this evening across southeast MO. These storms will likely be elevated and should not pose a threat for severe weather, but any stronger updrafts could be accompanied by wind gusts up to 30mph and torrential rainfall. This activity should push east through the the late morning hours and we do expect to see a break by the early afternoon. There is still a lot of uncertainty regarding how the morning activity will affect what happens later in the day, primarily regarding how much we are able to destabilize before storms fire along the cold front. Deep layer shear is not overly impressive this far south but low to mid level shear would support the risk for some organized storms capable of producing damaging straight line winds with a very low risk of a tornado. This risk will be highly conditional based on the instability available during the "main round" late tomorrow afternoon and evening.

The more confident threat right now is the potential for localized flash flooding. With PWAT values above 2" and multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorms expected over the next 24 hours, WPC has maintained a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall over areas along and east of I-65 with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) west of I-65. Current rainfall totals are between 1-2" which would cause some rises on smaller creeks/streams and ponding on area roadways, especially areas of poor drainage. The westward extent of the flooding threat is a bit uncertain due to disagreement between hi- res guidance regarding the coverage of afternoon thunderstorms over NW AL with some guidance not showing initiation until close to I-65. This is also reflected in QPF guidance, so trends will need to be monitored closely throughout the day.

Bottom line - you will need to keep a close eye on the forecast today especially if you have outdoor plans. Be sure to make arrangements to head indoors quickly if lightning or a severe thunderstorm approaches your area and be aware of low-lying and poor drainage areas if you plan to be on the road.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The severe threat should come to an end around midnight Sunday as the cold front pushes east of the area. After a brief break from the storms, residual moisture will be enough to carry a low to medium chance for rain and storms on Sunday as the aforementioned upper low tracks through southern IN/eastern KY before giving way to high pressure. There will be no severe threat with these storms and rainfall amounts should remain under 0.1" which should not prolong any lingering flooding. Highs will be noticeably cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night should feel a bit refreshing as well with dry conditions expected and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The long term period will be largely dictated by the placement and depth of the upper level trough shifting eastward into the Appalachian region early next week. Models continue to have disagreements, however, the general consensus so far is that lingering low pressure over the southeastern U.S. will create daily low chances (20% or less) of showers/thunderstorms with the assistance of diurnal heating through mid next week. If any thunderstorms are realized, the only day that could support a low chance of stronger storms at this time would be Wednesday with the LREF showing a decent amount of instability (Sfc CAPE > 1000 J/kg) along with generally unimpressive shear. Otherwise, a gradual warming pattern will be observed through next week with highs reaching the mid 90s by Thursday and Friday along with overnight lows in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue for most of the overnight period, but we are monitoring a few clusters of storms to the northwest that may produce some localized MVFR conditions early this morning (10-14z). A cold front will then sweep through the region during the afternoon/evening, bringing another round of SHRA/TSRA, with localized MVFR conditions occurring if a TSRA impacts either terminal between 20-00z. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this timeframe. After 00z, TSRA/SHRA should diminish and move off to the east, but low stratus may begin to build in by the late evening hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northern Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for August 8-9th. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures reaching or exceeding the mid 90s with heat indices above 105 degrees F during this period

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.