textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

- Low chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again tonight, mainly south of the TN River.

- Medium to high chances of rain and perhaps a few thunderstorms Friday night. Rain amounts of 0.25 to 1.0 inch expected.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 103 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A cold front has moved southeast through Nashville to the Shoals metro area into central MS. Ahead of the front, breaks in the overcast have allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to around 80, with dew points in the upper 60s to around 70. This has elevated MLCAPE values into the 1000-2000 J/kg range and within a 50-60kt effective shear profile. Composite severe weather parameters are thus a bit elevated as well, so we are watching satellite and radar closely. However, subsidence behind the departing shortwave from overnight was helping to limit convective development thus far. For now, not expecting anything too wild, but the risk is non-zero for a couple of stronger storms yet this afternoon ahead of the cold front. For tonight, another impulse flowing east in the zonal 5h pattern will help to instigate a complex of showers and thunderstorms which expands a bit northward the TN Valley. The greatest chances will remain south of the TN River. These are not expected to pose a severe weather threat. Temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to around 50 overnight.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 943 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Zonal 5h flow will persist Thursday into Friday. Surface high pressure will weaken as it shifts from the central Plains into the OH and TN valleys. This will provide a dry and cool day Thursday. Another shortwave will quickly move east through Texas and then the Gulf states Thursday night through Friday night. With the frontal boundary at the surface and 850 mb well south of the area, primarily overrunning stratiform light rainfall is expected in the TN valley with this system. A few embedded thunderstorms could occur, mainly south of the TN River which may enhance rain amounts in our southern counties. Very low to low chances of rain are reintroduced to the forecast Thursday night into Friday, climbing into the medium to high chance range Friday night, mainly across the southeast half of north AL, with lower chances in TN and far northwest AL. Rain amounts of 0.25-0.50 inches are expected north of the TN River, with 0.5-1.0 inches further south. Temperatures will remain on the cool side with highs in the 60s Friday and Saturday with lows in the upper 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Global models suggest that cool rain on the northwestern flank of a surface low (across the southeastern CONUS) will end across the region late Saturday morning, with dry conditions expected for the remainder of the weekend. As a surface high builds southward through the Great Plains, winds will become light/variable Saturday night and this along with clearing skies will promote efficient radiational cooling and lows in the u30s-l40s (followed by sunny skies and pleasantly warm temps in the m60s-l70s later on Sunday). Southwesterly return flow will begin on Sunday night and continue through the end of the extended period, resulting in a warming trend with highs returning to the m-u70s by Tuesday. Low- level moisture return will initially be limited in this regime, but should increase a bit by Tuesday, warranting very low chances for showers.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1102 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

A scattered (VFR) to broken (MVFR) layer at 020-030agl will persist until 20-23Z when a cold front will shift winds to the northwest with clouds rising to ~030-050agl (VFR). There is a very low chance of a few SHRA and TSRA along and ahead of the front this afternoon. There is also very low chance of -SHRA and TSRA from 00-06Z behind the front as a weak upper level disturbance moves by, but mainly south of KMSL and KHSV. Confidence remains too low to include at either terminal. The sky will clear by 12-14Z with northerly flow gusting at 15-20kt.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.