textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

- A cold/dry air mass will remain in place through early next week, with below normal temperatures favored through Tuesday.

- A gradual warming trend will take place mid to late next week as highs return to seasonable levels.

- A weak disturbance will bring low chances of precipitation to the region from late Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Sunday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, our forecast area will remain within a cyclonic flow regime through the near term period dictated by a longwave trough encompassing much of central/eastern North America. Embedded within the broader trough, an initially positively-tilted shortwave disturbance (extending from the Mid- MS Valley into the southern High Plains) will transition to a neutral tilt as it advances southeastward into the Lower MS Valley by 12Z.

In response to this, a developing area of low pressure (south of the AL Gulf Coast) will deepen as it accelerates northeastward to a position off the coast of SC. Low-level flow across the local area will continue to veer to NNW as this occurs, advecting a cold/dry arctic airmass southeastward into the region originating from a modifying anticyclone dropping southward from western SD into central TX. Although elevated lift will continue to strengthen overnight with the approach of the shortwave, this will merely contribute to broken layers of altostratus clouds and patches of virga as it appears as if the northern edge of the expanding anafrontal precipitation shield (related to the low to our southeast) will remain displaced to our immediate south/east. Due to the combination of clouds and a light but persistent breeze, lows will likely end up in the upper teens-lower 20s (in spite of dewpoints falling into the lower teens).

Mid-level clouds will quickly spread eastward around or shortly after sunrise tomorrow as the axis of the shortwave trough crosses our region, with abundant sunshine anticipated throughout the day. As the center of the remnant surface high shifts further into the northwest Gulf, light WSW flow in the low-levels will allow temps to slowly climb into the m-u 30s for most of the valley (lower 30s atop the Cumberland Plateau).

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1018 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

A light WSW flow in the low-levels will persist across the TN Valley tomorrow night, within the gradient between a high to our southwest and a developing low over the northern Great Lakes. With little change in the thermodynamic properties of the airmass, overnight lows should once again fall into the l-m 20s, with daytime highs on Monday briefly recovering into the u30s-l40s prior to the arrival of a reinforcing surge of arctic air later in the day. As the center of the surface ridge migrates eastward into the TN Valley Monday night, dewpoints in the single digits and subsiding winds would normally support a bitterly cold night, but with forecast soundings suggesting a decent coverage of mid/high- level cloudiness related to a passing shear axis, we will not deviate from the blended guidance forecast of lows in the mid teens. The high will gradually weaken as it translates eastward into the southern Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday/Tuesday night, and this along with development of a lee cyclone across southeastern CO (that will eject northeastward into the vicinity of Lake MI by the end of the period) will induce light SSE return flow. Highs will once again top out in the u30s-l40s Tuesday, with a minor increase in overnight lows (into the l-m 20s) Tuesday night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Latest extended range model data suggests that a pronounced mid- level shortwave trough will dig southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes/OH Valley on Wednesday and Wednesday night, with the southern extent of this disturbance inducing the formation of a subtle wave of low pressure across south TX and adjacent portions of the western Gulf. As this occurs, deep-layer ascent will strengthen in the vicinity of a weakening cold front dropping southeastward into the TN Valley, with an increase in clouds on Wednesday and perhaps some light rain beginning in the west late Wednesday afternoon. Even with clouds, highs should warm modestly into the 45-50F range for most of the CWFA. Present indications are that precipitation will become more widespread (although remaining generally light) on Wednesday night/early Thursday morning, and could initially begin as a mixture of snow/sleet (due to high potential for evaporative cooling) before transitioning to cold rain and ending quickly after sunrise Thursday morning. We will need to keep a close eye on this system for minor impacts from wintry precipitation, especially as antecedent cloud cover may have a large impact on boundary layer temperatures at the onset of precipitation.

As high pressure advances eastward, light southerly return flow will become established once again by Thursday night and should steadily strengthen Friday and Friday night as a wave of low pressure along a surging arctic front begins to lift northeastward out of the southern Plains. Increasing lift and moisture advection to the east of the approaching low and beneath a 40-50 knot southwesterly low-level jet will support a vast area of rain (which could become widespread and locally heavy at times late Friday night into Saturday morning). Fortunately, at this point, it appears as if precipitation will end prior to the arrival of the reinforcing arctic airmass late Saturday or Saturday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as an approaching upper-lvl trough will bring periods of bkn As/Cs as well as some virga thru the early morning hours. As the axis of the trough crosses the forecast area late Sunday morning, we expect a notable clearing trend to begin by 10Z, with only a few Ac and some Ci expected for the remainder of the forecast period. Light NNW winds at the sfc will continue thru sunrise. However, as a remnant arctic high drops further southward into the northwestern Gulf tomorrow, low-lvl flow will back to WSW and increase to 5-10 kts by mid-late morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.