textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

- Temperatures will be on the rise this week, with highs reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday

- Low-medium rain and thunderstorm chances (40-70%) return Thursday and Friday.

- We are monitoring the Friday system with some indications that there will be a low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Fairly tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this evening, with only some passing mid to high clouds filtering through the area. A drier air mass filtered into the region today in wake of a cold front and that should (for the most part) keep the fog at bay tonight. Still, given the recent rainfall, think some patchy fog may develop in a few sheltered valleys east of I-65 late tonight into early Monday morning as cloud cover begins to thin. An upper-ridge axis will continue to build into the region on Monday. With ample sunshine, light southerly winds, and dry conditions forecast -- highs will easily return to the low to mid 60s by the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Very mild conditions will continue Tuesday and Wednesday, with much above normal temperatures favored with a broad subtropical ridge further establishing itself across the Deep South. A weak subtle shortwave may bring some cloud cover and perhaps a sprinkle or two to the area on Tuesday. However, given the broad southerly warm air advection taking place, temperatures will still easily make it into the mid to upper 60s. Continued amplification of the ridge and the deep southerly flow (along with a little more sunshine), will push temperatures into the upper 60s to perhaps lower 70s on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1052 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

We will gradually transition into a more active pattern late this week as the ridge shifts east and a developing upper-level storm system over the southern Plains becomes the focus of the forecast Thursday through Friday night. Despite increasing cloud cover, Thursday may be the warmest day this week, thanks to strong warm air advection as temperatures in the lower 70s -- to potentially the mid 70s are forecast. A lead shortwave will eject from the Big Bend into the Mid South/lower Ohio Valley on Thursday, bringing low chances for showers (20-30%) to the area Thursday afternoon and medium chances (40-60%) overnight. A very low chance of a few elevated storms will exist, but the far better forcing and instability will be displaced to our northwest. While QPF won't be all that much, this feature will help to advect in some higher dewpoints into the lower 60s by Friday morning.

The main period we will be watching will be Friday and especially Friday evening into Friday night. A deepening upper-trough will eject from the Plains into the Mid-Mississippi Valley, dragging a cold front through the Deep South and Tennessee Valley. Medium- high (60-80%) for showers and storms will accompany this front as it slowly pushes through the region. With PWATs increasing into the 1.4-1.6" range (95-99th percentile per BMX sounding climatology), we will be favored for locally heavy rainfall thanks to these efficient rain producing storms that develop. Instability (including whether or not we will be surface-based) will be much more of an unknown and will be dependent on the timing of the front. Still, given the very strong shear values, organized convection is likely and the potential for at least a few strong to severe storms will exist during this late Friday afternoon to Friday evening/night window. The front will clear the region by early Saturday morning, with cooler and drier conditions forecast for next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Current IR satellite data indicates that the northern edge of an axis of high-lvl Ci will continue to shift southward early this morning, resulting in SKC conds at the MSL/HSV terminals by 8Z. Although this could potentially lead to development of patchy BR/FG, a gradual increase in SSE flow at the sfc may mitigate this threat to some extent. Winds will veer to SSW and strengthen to 5-10 kts after sunrise, with abundant moisture advection resulting in formation of sct Cu by 16Z beneath a sct-bkn layer of Ac. Present indications are that boundary layer moistening will continue tomorrow evening, with a stratus layer becoming established arnd 1500 ft by 2Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.