textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 955 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

- Flood Watch in effect for areas east of I-65 through 7 PM Friday.

- Low chances of showers and storms tonight; will increase to medium to high chances on Friday and Saturday.

- Heat Risk increases to Moderate Risk (level 2 out of 4) Sunday/Monday and then Major (level 3 out of 4) on Tuesday

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 231 AM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Low clouds have begun to filter back into the area as a stationary front to our south shoves its way back north. This stationary front will be the feature of interest today and the source of a decent amount of uncertainty. The front itself will serve as a forcing mechanism for medium to high chances of showers and storms through the day. Where the uncertainty remain is where the actual front sets us. The high rain chances and associated flash flood risk will be in close proximity to the frontal boundary, meaning the actual location of where the front stalls in its northward progression is significant regarding who has the highest chances for heavy rainfall. 00Z models keep the front a little further south, containing the highest rain chances to our southern and southwest CWA border, with much lower rain chances elsewhere. However, if the front shifts north or south at all, the corridor of greatest concern for flash flood could quickly move.

Unfortunately, the entire area will maintain a prime environment to support heavy rainfall along the front. PWATs look to surge above 2", with some locations to our south nearing 2.5" based on 00z guidance. A building mid level high to our west will act to slow mid level flow with upshear corfidi vectors below 10 MPH. These factors support efficient rainfall products and backbuilding/training storms. Ensembles keep high end totals around 3-4 inches, however even areas that receive less rainfall may run into drainage problems if smaller amounts fall in incredibly short timeframes. As such, the Flood Watch remains in effect through 7 PM this evening. It is worth noting that if the front stalls further to the south, rain chances and overall rainfall will likely decrease significantly. At this time, due to the high end environment, the Flood Watch will remain.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Rain chances should become lower Fri night, as an impulse producing shower activity to the east. Low temperatures Fri night should cool into the lower 70s. Forecast guidance for Sat was in generally good agreement showing another bout of more showers and thunderstorms, as the boundary to our south returns northward as a warm front. Rainfall with this appears could be locally heavy. Depending if and how much rainfall occurs on Fri, excessive rain on Sat could add to a flooding risk. Expect another "cool" late July day Sat, with highs mainly in the mid/upper 80s. Heavier and/or greater shower coverage could make for an even cooler day; highs only in the lower 80s.

Showers should end Sat night from west to east, as the front meanders somewhere across the area. Lows Sat night should range in the lower 70s. Although the front will remain across the region, upper support should be weaker. Thus a tad warmer as the heat returns, pushing highs from the upper 80s higher terrain to the low/mid 90s. Heat index values will rise from the mid/upper 90s to around 105 degrees in a few spots. Coverage of the hottest values should be too small to warrant issuance of a Heat Advisory.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 955 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

The long term period will be largely influenced by an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high over the southern Plains into the Deep South. As a result, the Tennessee Valley will remain in a NW flow pattern through mid week with a rising temperature trend. High temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s on Monday and will increase into the upper 90s by Tuesday. Heat products may be considered in future updates this weekend as heat index temperatures are forecast to warm near or above 105 degrees. Mid week, slight relief from heat is on the table as a frontal boundary drops southward from a potential low pressure system shifting into the northeast Appalachian region. However, confidence is low in this at this time as it will depend on upper level trough placement/depth. Have continued with blended guidance at this time, which brings low chances (30% or less) of rainfall back to the area Wednesday into Thursday to account for the potential frontal boundary.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Vfr conditions look to prevail through the night with an MVFR cloud deck moving in after 12Z. The MVFR ceilings look to stick around for most of the day as showers and storms set up SE of the terminals. Included VCTS in Huntsville due to low confidence in storms making it that far NW to the actual terminal. Even lower confidence in seeing any precip at MSL, thus kept all precip out. Could and precip chances will wane in the evening with VFR conditions returning around 00Z through the remainder of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through this evening for ALZ006>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch through this evening for TNZ076-096-097.