textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- High chances for showers and thunderstorms today with a low chance of severe storms capable of damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- 1-2 inches of rain with higher amounts to 3 inches may occur today in locations that experience repeated rounds of storms, which could lead to localized flash flooding. - Medium chances (50-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday linger (though mainly in the afternoon) through Tuesday. - Lower chances (20-40) are expected to continue into next weekend, with the threat for dangerous heat returning toward the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1254 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The surface/upper low continues to spin over west central Illinois at this time. Further southeast of the surface low, its attendant cold front has shifted southeast to to west of Nashville, TN SW into the Memphis, TN area and into northwestern Mississippi. Over the last hour or so, some organized elevated radar returns have started to show up near Nashville. Expect that area will be the initiation area for a line of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms that will develop into the mid afternoon hours. This activity is still expected to develop SSW towards the mid/late afternoon hours into portions of NW Alabama and push east into the evening hours. Overall timing has slowed just by an hour or two with new guidance, suggesting the main window for severe weather across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee would now be between 3 PM and 11 PM today. Not sure how much of our three western counties (Lauderdale/Colbert/Franklin counties - AL) will see of this activity. However, portions of those counties could be clipped briefly by this line during the mid/late afternoon hours.

Threats are still the same with just enough shear, helicity, and instability still being forecast along/ahead of the front with this convective development. Damaging winds still looks like the most common threat with any severe storms that develop. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out though. It does look like this line of storms will push east through the evening hours. However, with PWATS still forecast to climb to around 2 inches, flash flooding will still be possible.

SPC has included northern Alabama and our southern middle Tennessee counties in a mesoscale discussion for a possible severe weather watch. However, shear in current meso-anlysis is lagging more to the north than current model output and lapse rates are not impressive, so confidence in a watch is low (only 40%). If one was issued, it would likely be over the next few hours, but confidence in a watch overall is low.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

With some stronger cold air advection behind the front and some temporary clearing overnight, temperatures should be able to drop into the mid to upper 60s around daybreak on Sunday. Some fog development will likely occur.

The surface and upper low shift southeast over time on Sunday into central Kentucky. This will allow for medium to high chances (especially north of the Tennessee River) in the forecast on Sunday (mainly in the afternoon). Better shear is well east of the center of the upper low in most guidance. So, general showers and maybe a few thunderstorms look possible, but nothing severe. Due to cold air advection, cloud cover and precipitation chances, highs should be rather cool, only reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s in most locations.

Sunday night into Monday, the upper low weakens as it shifts more SSE into northern Alabama. This should allow for even more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to occur Monday afternoon. Again, Due to the weakening nature of this upper low, not really seeing ample shear or instability in place for strong to severe thunderstorm development. However, some training of bands of heavier rainfall and maybe isolated flash flooding could occur given the location of the slowly moving upper low. A bit more morning sunshine could allow highs to climb a tad higher, but still given cloud cover and precipitation, highs should only top out int the upper 70s to around 85 degrees or so.

As we move into Tuesday, The upper low starts to shift to the east and then NW as an approaching longwave trough axis draws it that direction. This should keep medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast near and east of the I-65 corridor on Tuesday afternoon. Again, shear and instability look too meager for any strong thunderstorm development.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1116 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Towards the middle/end of the week the upper low opens into an open wave that merges with a longwave trough axis approaching the Ohio Valley region. This should continue to lower shower and thunderstorm chances into the low to medium chance category.

GFS shows a convective complex developing over the southeast. However, this looks alot like convective feedback at this time. So staying with lower pop Thursday into Friday (20-40%). However, will need to monitor this period for high precipitation chance potential if that materializes. An overall increase in high temperatures are expected Wednesday through the end of next week. Highs should rebound back into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most locations with more sunshine in the morning expected.

Models do seem a bit more convergent on a weak front (longwave trough axis aloft) push east into the Tennessee Valley into the weekend. This could kept low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast next weekend. Again, shear and instability looks to weak for stronger thunderstorm concerns. Dangerous heat index values over 100 degrees may build back into the region next weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 19Z. Some VCSH could occur at KMSL around that time. By 19Z VCTS was included at both terminals with a PROB30 group (KMSL - 20Z to 24Z) and a tempo group at KHSV (20Z to 22Z) for possible -TSRA activity and MVFR or lower CIGS/VSBYS. A predominant TSRA was included at KHSV after 22Z for an expected line of strong to severe thunderstorms affecting the terminal. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS and stronger winds could occur during that period. Confidence is lower this will occur further west. Most guidance shows CIGS becoming VFR after 01Z. Light winds and previous rainfall should set the conditions for fog development after 10Z (maybe earlier). This may have to be revised downward to IFR or lower VSBY impacts.

CLIMATE

Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northern Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for August 8-9th. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures reaching or exceeding the mid 90s with heat indices above 105 degrees F during this period

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.