textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 1245 PM CST Sat Dec 14 2025

- Sub freezing temperatures will continue through Monday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee from 6 PM through 6 AM on Monday. - Rain and thunderstorm chances return towards the middle/end of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Earlier cloud cover has moved well south of northern Alabama into the Florida panhandle region at this time. Temperatures around sunrise in southern middle Tennessee dropped into the 15 to 20 degree range. Along with winds between 20 and 30 mph, wind chill values dropped to between -2 and 5 degrees Fahrenheit.

Despite very strong cold air advection continuing this afternoon, temperatures have climbed into the lower 20s in southern middle Tennessee and the 25 to 30 degree range further south. Winds have started to weaken slightly, but we could still see wind gusts to around 25 mph for a few more hours south of the Tennessee River. Further north sustained winds around 10 mph with gust up to 20 mph will be more common. Temperatures might climb a few more degrees the rest of the day, but with such strong cold air advection forecast at 925 mb, not expecting highs to climb above the mid 20s in southern middle Tennessee. Further south, highs could reach the lower 30s in some spots. With winds still gusting to between 15 and 25 mph the much of the remainder of the afternoon, it will still feel very cold with wind chills remaining in the teens throughout the day.

As we lose daytime heating towards sunset, temperatures will fall back into the teens early in the evening. Just how far they fall overnight is a tricky forecast. Models have been hinting the last day or so that boundary layer winds shift overnight from the north to the east and the southeast towards daybreak. This would advect warmer air into our current airmass and thus models have trended up a bit with lows tonight. However, with such low high temperatures, it won't take long in the evening for temperatures to fall into the teens, especially in southern middle Tennessee. Expect them to probably fall into the 10 to 15 degree range in most locations (maybe a few 8 or 9 degree temperatures in southern middle TN) between 9 PM tonight and 2 AM on Monday. The shift in boundary layer winds may then push temperatures very slowly higher towards daybreak. Guidance does show winds aloft and just enough mixing continuing over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee through 3 AM to keep winds around 10 mph gusting to between 15 and 20 mph. Winds should decouple after that and could be light and variable right around daybreak on Monday, but the boundary layer wind shift will likely keep temperatures from bottoming out more.

The combination of winds especially this evening until shortly after midnight will keep the threat for winds chills dropping below 5 degrees in place tonight. Therefore, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect for all of our southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama counties from 6 PM tonight through 6 AM on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

Monday does look warmer with abundant sunshine continuing. Winds will be much lighter. 925 mb temperatures climb back to between 0 and 5 degrees via the average of most guidance. Highs with abundant sunshine should be able to climb into the upper 30s to lower 40s as a result.

This warming pattern continues as southwesterly flow continues ahead of a quick moving clipper system that extends SSW from central Canada on Tuesday. Luckily, the majority of colder air remains well north near the parent low of this system over southern Canada. Tuesday's highs should be even warmer, climbing into the lower 50s with continued sunshine.

Cloud cover will likely begin to increase late Tuesday night along and ahead of a pre-frontal trough axis that forms southeast of that clipper system moving east towards the Tennessee Valley, especially over Mississippi and western Tennessee. Around daybreak on Wednesday, mostly cloudy conditions could begin moving into NW Alabama. Moisture return is limited ahead of this quick moving system. However, models do squeeze out some light precipitation Wednesday morning along this pre-frontal trough axis as it moves east into the area, mainly over NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. As the front moves east across the area, drier air in place may put an end to precipitation and mainly cloudy conditions are expected.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1245 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

By Wednesday night, models don't move the stalled pre-frontal trough axis much. At the same time, a stronger cold front develops and pushes quickly southeast from the Pacific Northwest eastward. By the morning hours on Thursday, it focuses stronger forcing well ahead of it. The eastern edge of that forcing and ample moisture make it into northwestern Alabama. This cold front continues to push east during the day on Thursday. Fairly strong flow from the Gulf coast develops via strong low level southerly flow as well during the day into the evening hours on Thursday. Currently models push highs into the lower 60s. This may be a bit underdone though given the southerly flow in the boundary layer. For now, keeping with guidance.

Models do build between 100 and 500 J/KG of instability ahead of it Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Strong shear also is in place ahead of it as well. This will likely setup the possibility for some thunderstorm activity. However, how far south the strong forcing with this system extends will be a big driver concern any strong to severe thunderstorm potential. This period will need to monitored for a low threat of that potential over the next few days. Expect any precipitation to push east of the area after 1 or 2 AM on Friday.

Cooler and drier air will push into the area behind this front on Friday. Highs will drop back into the 40 to 50 degree range and lows into the 30s primarily. Again a warming trend is expected the rest of the weekend with highs climbing back into the lower 60s by Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1251 PM CST Sun Dec 14 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Breezy northerly winds around 15 kts gusting to between 20 and 25 kts will continue this afternoon. Winds should become lighter, but still remain around 8 kts this evening with a few higher gusts to around 15 kts. These winds should decouple after 8Z and become light at both terminals. With such dry air in place, no fog is expected at either terminal around daybreak on Monday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Monday for TNZ076-096-097.