textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

- A warming trend begins today with highs reaching the upper 40s and lower 50s.

- High chances for showers with low chances of thunderstorms will begin Friday evening and continue into Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1053 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Sunny skies have allowed temperatures to climb into the 35 to 40 degree range already this morning. Much better conditions than yesterday, when it took all day to get close to that warm.

Westerly to southwesterly boundary layer flow has setup over the Tennessee Valley ahead of a weak frontal boundary extending from southwestern Kentucky SW into NE Arkansas. This and the abundant sunshine expected today will allow temperatures to climb into the mid 40s to the lower 50s. Southern middle Tennessee counties may see some high thin cloud cover swing through those areas this afternoon ahead of the weak front.

This front seems to push further south overnight and stalls on Thursday. Winds should decouple despite the front near the area, since it will be so weak. Models drop temperatures into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Based on upstream observations and the weak nature of the moisture/warm advection, this looks reasonable based on current dewpoints. There may be some patchy fog in protected valley locations with winds decoupling and becoming light early this evening. However, models still have about a 2 to 5 degree dewpoint depression over the area even at 6 AM on Thursday. Therefore, left patchy fog out of grids for now. Evening shift may have to add some very patchy fog if conditions warrant.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1053 AM ST Wed Dec 31 2025

On Thursday, the weak decaying front pushes into northern Alabama. Another re-enforcing cold front is shown by models pushing southeast from the Great Lakes region as well. This second front should refocus warm air/moisture advection over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This should help to warm things up further on Thursday with afternoon temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

This front tries to push further south, but stalls as it runs into the northern edge of a strong surface high over the Gulf coast states. By Thursday night, models continue to show disturbances aloft and an associated surface low developing over the desert southwest east towards eastern Texas and Oklahoma. Closer to home, this feature will not have much impact on sensible weather through Thursday night. However, it will help keep overnight lows a bit warmer still, only dropping into the mid 30s to lower 40s.

By Friday morning, cloud cover well ahead of the surface low still over eastern Texas and Louisiana will push east into northern Alabama. Some strong forcing northeast of this surface low aloft should help to produce widespread precipitation by the afternoon (if not mid morning hours) Shear is very strong, but models continue to show no elevated or surface base instability present.

As the low moves into Mississippi and then Alabama late Friday afternoon into Friday evening, a few models show maybe a few isolated pockets of elevated or surface based CAPE towards Cullman or Marshall county. Shear and forcing aloft remains strong enough for thunderstorm development (possibly a strong storm), but with such little/spotty instability skeptical on how much thunderstorm activity we will see. Overall rainfall looks a bit less than previous runs, but a solid half of an inch to around an inch in an isolated locations could occur.

Though the surface low is slow to move east, the bulk of the concentrated stronger forcing aloft does push into Georgia after 3 AM on Saturday. Lingering stratiform light to moderate rain looks most likely to continue into the morning hours on Saturday before ending early in the afternoon. However, a few models do push some very weak SBCAPE (< 100 J/KG) into Cullman/Marshall, and DeKalb counties between 10 AM and 3 PM. So, left isolated thunderstorm chances in there.

Any strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be too isolated to really have much confidence on right now. We will need to monitor Friday evening into Saturday morning just in case the surface low ends up shifting further north with time though given shear that will be in place.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1053 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Not much cooler air behind this storm system Saturday night into the weekend. lows will drop back into the lower to mid 30s again though. Sunday will be slightly cooler again with highs reaching the 50 to 55 degree range mainly. However, a warming trend should begin again early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1010 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF period. Some scattered high CIGS may affect KHSV this afternoon briefly. Will have to monitor terminals for some patchy fog potential towards daybreak on Thursday. Decoupling winds tonight and clear skies may allow for some fog formation. However, confidence is too low to include at this time. Winds between 5 and 10 knots from the west are expected after 01/14Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.