textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- There is a very low chance for a few showers and thunderstorms across the southwestern portion of the forecast area tonight and across the southeastern portion tomorrow.

- Dry conditions are expected to return Tuesday evening and continue through Friday night, with a low-medium chance for showers and thunderstorms returning Saturday-Monday.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Over the course of the near term period, a strengthening mid- level shortwave trough will dig south-southeastward from the northern Great Lakes into the VA/NC vicinity, effectively amplifying a broader trough along the Atlantic Seaboard and maintaining NW flow of 25-35 knots across the local forecast area. In the low- levels, a remnant outflow boundary from the MCS earlier today remains situated from the Ozarks southeastward into west-central AL and should continue to initiate clusters of thunderstorms for much of the night. Although the southern portion of the boundary has remained nearly stationary for the past several hours, there is a very small chance that some oscillation of this feature could allow a shower or storm to impact the far southwestern corner of the CWFA, but confidence in this scenario is not high at this time. Additional weak convection that was previously occurring in the vicinity of a backdoor cold front across eastern TN/western NC continues to dissipate this evening, and for this reason we expect dry conditions to prevail overnight for the majority of the forecast area. Low temperatures will fall into the mid 60s for most locations, with a few lower 60 degree readings in the east and a few upper 60s in the west. Patchy, locally dense fog may also develop at time throughout the early morning hours, but confidence in widespread dense fog is low due to the anticipated coverage of convective debris clouds.

The backdoor cold front will shift slowly southwestward across the forecast area tomorrow morning, with gusty northeast winds advecting a cooler and drier continental airmass into the region in its wake (highlighted by dewpoints falling into the l-m 60s during the afternoon as temps peak in the u70s-l80s). As the boundary advances southwestward, it will interact with a moist and diurnally destabilizing airmass, perhaps supporting the development of a few showers and thunderstorms (as indicated by several members of the 12Z HREF). However, coverage of afternoon convection will likely be highest to our south/east and in the vicinity of a subtle low-level convergence axis extending northward off a weak low over the northeast Gulf Coast. Thus, we will only include a low-medium (20-30%) POP for our southeastern forecast zones.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Short range model consensus suggests that the northern portion of an amplified 500-mb ridge (extending northeastward into the Mid- MS Valley and western Great Lakes) will gradually evolve into a mid-level high as it translates southeastward into the TN Valley by the end of the period. In the low-levels, we will remain under the influence of a Canadian ridge that will shift southeastward from the Great Lakes into the central/southern Appalachians and maintain a dry airmass (with surface dewpoints in the m-u 50s) and light/variable to light east-southeasterly flow. Thus, we expect dry conditions and mostly clear skies to exist for the duration of the period, with afternoon highs in the u70s-l80s and overnight lows in the m-u 50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1000 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

High pressure will keep large scale subsidence and relatively dry air in place through the end of the work week as upper ridging inches to the east, resulting in a stream of Gulf moisture across the ArkLaTex region as we head into the weekend. The good news is that temperatures will remain on the mild side with highs in the low to mid 80s and lows mainly in the low to mid 60s. As the aforementioned ridge gets closer over the weekend, we will see an increase in cloudiness as well as low chances for rain and storms over NW AL Saturday. The synoptic pattern becomes a bit more complicated toward the beginning of next week as high pressure is suppressed to our east while an upper low digs across the northeast. A shortwave will work to shift the higher moisture axis into the southeastern US, but it is a bit unclear at this range when and where the best chances for rain and thunderstorms will be. For now we will stick with blended guidance with low to medium rain/storm chances Sunday through Monday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 801 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Although redevelopment of TSRA will continue this evening along a trailing outflow boundary from an earlier MCS, this activity appears as if it will remain most concentrated from the Ozarks into west-central AL and should miss the local forecast area to the SW. And, with additional weak convection along a backdoor cold front (across eastern TN/western NC) expected to dissipate over the course of the evening, we will maintain a dry forecast at this point. With bkn-ovc debris clouds predicted for much of the evening, conditions will likely not become conducive for development of BR/FG until early Tue morning and a TEMPO group has been included for MVFR vsby reductions btwn 9-13Z. A modest increase in NE flow (to 8G16 kts) will occur by late morning, with few-sct high-based Cu expected during the aftn.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.