textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1031 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Low (10-20%) chances for light rain or sprinkles will continue today, with highest rain chances along and north of the AL-TN border.

- Low (10-20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, increasing to medium (50-60%) from Saturday-Monday.

- Temperatures will remain above climatological normal values through at least early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 231 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

There have been no significant changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning. Current radar data still indicates a fair coverage of low-reflectivity returns (particularly across the northern half of our forecast area). However, with cloud bases remaining high (10-12 kft), only a few reports of sprinkles have been noted. Thus, we will maintain POPs in the 10-20% range, with current temperatures suggesting that the max temperature forecast is on track. After partial clearing this evening, low stratus clouds will return early Tuesday morning, but conditions will remain dry and mild, with overnight lows in the l-m 50s.

Previous Discussion: West-northwest flow aloft of 30-40 knots will exist across the TN Valley through the duration of the near term period, as our forecast area will remain along the northern rim of a flat subtropical high that will spread from central Mexico into the southern Gulf. In the low-levels, we will remain within a light- moderate southerly flow regime between a decaying area of low pressure across eastern OK/western AR and a strong high that will shift east-southeastward off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast with time. A mid-level shortwave trough (embedded within WNW flow aloft) is predicted to weaken and shear apart as it advances from the Ozarks into the southern Appalachians over the course of the day. Nevertheless, weak lift related to this disturbance has supported a vast coverage of light stratiform rain along and north of a warm front extending from the decaying low northeastward through southwestern TN and into the Upper Cumberland Plateau region of southeastern KY. However, a relatively drier boundary layer across our CWFA will be reinforced by cold air damming in the lee of the southern Appalachians, and the majority of hydrometeors aloft should evaporate into virga before reaching the surface.

To account for the possibility of a few sprinkles of rain, we will retain a 10-20% POP in the forecast for the remainder of the day, with highest values along and north of the AL-TN border. Due to an overcast layer of altostratus clouds (that should not begin to dissipate until late this afternoon or early this evening), highs will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, but should still range from the m-u 60s in elevated terrain to the l-m 70s in the valley. Any lingering light rain will end across the northeastern corner of the CWFA btwn 0-3Z, with dry but mild conditions prevailing overnight, as southerly winds gradually strengthen in response to the development of a new lee cyclone across southeastern CO and adjacent portions of the OK panhandle. However, as moisture advection begins to increase beneath a persistent 30-40 knot southwesterly low-level jet, development of lower stratus should occur before sunrise (with patchy fog also possible in a few wind-sheltered locations). Due to lingering influences from the cold air damming event to our east, we will experience little change in low-level moisture and overnight lows should be similar to this morning (u40s-l50s in the east and mid 50s in the west).

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1031 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Latest short range model consensus suggests that the center of the subtropical ridge (initially to our south) will build northeastward across the FL peninsula and into the southwestern North Atlantic by the end of the period. As this occurs, WNW flow aloft will back to the southwest by Wednesday/Wednesday night in advance of an intensifying 500-mb shortwave trough that will progress east-northeastward from the central Rockies into the MO Valley. In the low-levels, we will remain within a moderately strong southerly flow regime, to the south of an effective warm front extending from the OH Valley southwestward into the southern High Plains. As the parent surface high (responsible for cold air damming to our east in the near term period) begins to weaken and retreat into the North Atlantic, low-level moisture will slowly increase with dewpoints rising back into the l-m 50s region-wide tomorrow. Although strengthening deep-layer warm advection may result in periods of low clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain or light showers at times (particularly across our western zones where dewpoints may reach the u50s-l60s), lack of a synoptic scale forcing mechanism will preclude POPs higher than 5-10% through Wednesday night. Afternoon temps will rise back into the u70s-l80s by Wednesday, as overnight lows slowly increase into the m-u 50s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 952 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

High pressure will anchor over the SW Atlantic through the long term period, keeping warm and moist tropical air flowing into the southeast. This will favor above normal temperatures, with highs in the 70s to low 80s each afternoon and higher humidity will help keep lows in the 50s to lower 60s - well above normal for early March. While this airmass will favor at least low chances for rain and thunderstorms, there is still a bit of uncertainty regarding how far east a series of upper level disturbances will track. With that in mind, we have maintained low chance PoPs starting Thursday through Friday with the highest chances west of I-65. It does appear that the upper high will begin to shift to the east over the weekend, allowing troughing and a sfc cold front to push closer to the TN Valley resulting in medium to high chances for rain and thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday. For now, it looks like the better dynamics for any stronger storms will be held to our west, but we will continue monitoring forecast trends through the week as the pattern does favor more active weather.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weak frontal boundary draped in a west to east manner across the TN Valley should move northward as a warm front tonight. A passing upper level system was bringing light showers over areas near and north of the AL/TN border. Given the track of shower nearing KMSL, have added a VCSH for a few hours this evening. Otherwise VFR conditions should continue into the late night. A strengthening SE flow aloft will be strong enough to produce Low-Level Wind Shear over the area in the overnight. This wind speed difference should weaken as we go into the day hours Tue. The strong SE flow will bring MVFR clouds over the terminals towards daybreak. This deck should dissipate as we go into the late morning and afternoon. Light SE winds overnight should become southerly 5-15kt from mid Tue morning through the afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of northern Alabama and adjacent southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation on March 10th and 11th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.