textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- There is a low-medium (20-60%) chance for showers and a few thunderstorms today, with coverage highest in the east.

- Chances for thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with coverage remaining highest in the east. Rain chances increase from 20-60% Tuesday to 20-80% on Wednesday. Lightning and heavy rainfall will be the greatest impacts from the storms.

- After slightly lower rain chances (20-40%) on Thursday and Friday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase to 30-60% Saturday-Monday.

- NWS Heat Risk highlights Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat impacts across the Tennessee Valley beginning late this week (Thursday- Monday).

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 242 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, with current temperatures near predicted highs (u70s-l80s) and a scattered coverage of light-moderate showers across the eastern part of the forecast area. Based on earlier sounding analysis, cells would need to achieve a 40-50 dBZ echo in the 16-18 kft range to present a concern for lightning, and with a large inversion located beneath this level, the convective shower activity should remain sufficiently shallow to reduce this threat. Precipitation coverage will initially begin to decrease with loss of diurnal warming (22-0Z) and should dissipate entirely by 2Z, with patchy, light mist and fog expected in locations that experience wetting rainfall early Tuesday morning. Overnight lows will once again be in the u60s-l70s.

Previous Discussion: In the mid/upper-levels, our forecast area will remain under the influence of a developing cutoff upper low across GA throughout the near term period (which will sustain NNE flow of 15-25 knots aloft). At the surface, light NNW winds will persist today between a high across the Lower Great Lakes and a weak cyclone that will gradually become established beneath the upper low. Within this regime, boundary layer moisture will remain abundant and should contribute to a fairly widespread coverage of stratus clouds today. Furthermore, a slight upslope component to low-level streamlines in the Cumberland Plateau region of middle/east TN combined with minor steepening of low-level lapse rates will yield pockets of low-topped, light showers which should spread south- southwestward impacting mainly the eastern two- thirds of the forecast area. Although CAPE may increase to 500-1000 J/kg in this region (supporting a few lightning strikes), the general thermodynamic environment appears more supportive of showers as the prevailing weather type. Even with cloud bases expected to slowly rise through the afternoon hours (and even a few peeks of sun possible very late this afternoon), highs will be similar to values from yesterday (u70s-l80s).

Due to the partial diurnal forcing for weak convection today, we expect any lingering shower activity to dissipate rather quickly between 1-3Z this evening. As high pressure translates eastward into the northern Mid-Atlantic states, surface winds across our region will veer to NNE, and after a brief period of clearing late this evening, forecast soundings suggest that low stratus clouds will return prior to sunrise. Patchy, light mist and fog may develop in a few locations as temps descend into the m-u 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

During the timeframe from Tuesday-Wednesday, the local forecast area will remain embedded within weak gradient flow in the low- levels between a decaying surface anticyclone across New England and a weak area of low pressure that will progressively retrograde across southern portions of central Gulf Coast states (before also decaying across southern MS). Present indications are that a subtle surface trough extending northward off the low will shift very slowly eastward across the forecast area, focusing the development of diurnal convection both days (with perhaps a few showers and storms continuing Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning, as well). A minor increase in boundary layer dewpoints (back into the l-m 70s) will occur to the east of the trough axis, contributing to a slight increase in CAPE and a greater risk for thunderstorms (at least compared to what we will experience today). However, deep-layer flow/shear will remain too weak to raise concern for storm organization. Thus, lightning will be the greatest concern, but locally heavy rainfall and minor flooding could also become an issue on Wednesday as the cutoff upper low to our southeast begins to open into a wave and lift northward into the southern Appalachians forcing steering currents to collapse. As a Bermuda ridge over the central Atlantic begins to develop westward, low-level SE flow will become more prominent across our CWFA on Wednesday night, resulting in decreasing chances for showers/thunderstorms and a gradual increase in overnight low temps.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 937 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Thursday the cut off low will finally shift eastward as a trough axis moves into the Midwest and skies will become partly cloudy across the TN Valley. Will see a low chance (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms mainly east of I-65 Thursday afternoon. A little bit higher rain chances on Friday afternoon as the trough axis makes it into the OH Valley and sends a disturbance into the TN Valley. The sfc low lifts into the Lower Great Lakes while the associated cold front will not make much southern progress, remaining up in the OH Valley. Not much of a pattern change over the weekend as it looks like the front will not make it into the region and we will continue to get diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms.

Temps will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday through Sunday but the heat index will make it feel more like it is in the upper 90s to just above 100 degrees. Not reaching heat advisory thresholds, however with most of us returning back to school this week, heat safety needs to remain a priority.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Recent sfc observations suggest that the base of a bkn-ovc stratus layer (encompassing much of the TN Valley) has lifted to ~4kft, and we will indicate prevailing VFR cigs in the TAFs for the remainder of the aftn. Scattered-numerous lgt-mod SHRA will also continue (primarily to the east of HSV) before initially beginning to diminish in coverage with loss of diurnal warming btwn 22-0Z. However, with prospects for occasional lightning expected to be confined to locations to the S/E of HSV, we will only include VCSH in the forecast at this point. After a brief period of clearing late this evening, stratus will likely return prior to sunrise Tuesday, but cigs are expected to remain low-VFR. Sfc winds will range from 340-020, with sustained speeds arnd 5 kts.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.