textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1023 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- There is a low risk for strong to severe storms on Wednesday, along with locally heavy rains.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

For the majority of the new week, upper level low pressure will remain over eastern Canada, maintaining a troughing feature over the eastern portion of the continent. A lobe of troughing that was across the area this weekend will move further off of the New England region, with the main upper low through Tuesday hanging over and near the southern Hudson Bay. This will increase average height and thickness values, resulting in milder temperatures, which should continue through the mid week. Another feature of interest is the subtropical jet and a surge of high altitude moisture headed this way from northern Mexico. Thus a return of partly to at times mostly cloudy skies for a good part of the upcoming work week.

Surface high pressure over the central Gulf coast will build to the east, becoming situated off of the east coast through the first half of the week. This shift should help winds (currently light and variable) return from the S-SW, with milder temperatures. Expect one more cool period overnight, with lows ranging from the lower 40s east to lower 50s west with light winds. Subtropical moisture and high altitude clouds should begin overspreading the area in the overnight. Will hold on to a mostly sunny as opposed to partly cloudy forecast for Monday. A southerly flow and higher heights should help push temperatures back to near normal levels for this time of year of around 80 degrees. Winds should become S-SW at 5-15 mph with higher gusts in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

A milder trend will continue Monday night with lows mainly in the low/mid 50s. Similar warmth is forecast on Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s. The southerly flow will return deeper moisture from the Gulf of America further inland. This moisture pooling could bring lower end chances of showers across NW Alabama and adjacent southern middle Tennessee.

Low to medium chances of showers are forecast Tuesday night, as deeper moisture and a frontal boundary to our west nears. With an addition of elevated instability, we cannot rule out a few thunderstorms mixed in with more predominate showers later Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Relative strong 0-3km helicity increasing in a west to east manner into the evening and overnight (150 to over 400 m/s) in this timeframe could result in strong gusty outflow winds in the stronger storms. Even milder temperatures are expected with lows from the upper 50s east to lower 60s west.

An upper level low now off of the central California coast will move eastward as we go into the workweek. It will join with an upper low north of the Great Lakes, producing a synoptic scale troughing feature that will sweep eastward across the CONUS. The trough, along with a surface low forecast to form over the Front Range and adjacent High Plains will advance eastward, and bring medium to high chances of showers and storms Wednesday. Medium range models in this time all show an increase in surface based instability, in an already modestly sheared environment. This will result in higher chances of convection. The timing of maximum instability in the afternoon to early evening could result in some of the convection becoming severe, with all modes of severe weather not out of the question. The strongest storms and higher tornado chances appears will be more to the west. A cold front involved with this next system should move across the area in NW to SE manner. A later in the day to evening passage would be more conducive for severe weather. With more clouds and high chances for showers/storms, highs temperatures for the mid week should rise into the mid 70s.

In addition to convection, area precipitable water values should rise to and above 1.5 inches over much of the area Wednesday. These values will increase to around 2 inches Wednesday night. The 1.5 inch PW is in the 90th percentile, with 2 inches near the top. Thus locally heavy rainfall, with excessive rain producing runoff, and a risk of flash flooding and/or flooding. Despite rather dry antecedent conditions, very heavy rain rates could change that picture.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Clouds and rain look to linger into the start of the long term as the aforementioned cold front pushes to our SE early on Thursday morning. In its wake, conditions will clear and dry throughout the day as surface high pressure quickly builds in behind it. The quick bout of high pressure paired with zonal flow aloft will allow relatively cooler air to momentarily displace Gulf moisture keeping temps mild on Thursday and Friday. Highs will range from the high 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. The brief bout of dry and clear conditions will come to an end as we head into the weekend.

Surface high pressure will quickly push off the Atlantic coast as a surface low pressure system builds in the SW. This will induce SW flow locally surging moisture and temperatures back towards seasonal normals. Through the weekend, a weakening mid level low and associated surface low will pass to our south across the Gulf Coast. Weak lift associated with this feature paired with Gulf moisture will support low rain chances (10-20%) on Saturday and Sunday as the feature passes. No severe weather is forecast.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Surface high pressure over the coastal Gulf will build to the east over the next day, resulting in light winds tonight becoming S-SW on Monday. Clear skies should continue across the Tennessee Valley into the late night. High altitude cirrus in the subtropical jet should begin overspreading the area before daybreak Mon. Daytime heating and weak instability should produce formation of fair weather cumulus, from late Mon morning through the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.