textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

- Strong to severe storms are forecast Tuesday afternoon and evening that would be capable of damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

With the loss of daytime heating the showers and storms from earlier today have for the most part dissipated. Numerous outflow boundaries remain across the local forecast area, therefore we will keep the low chances of an isolated shower or thunderstorm through most of the night. Another mild and humid night is in store as overnight lows only drop to the upper 60s to lower 70s. If skies clear out, conditions will be favorable for patchy dense fog near daybreak tomorrow morning.

On Tuesday a shortwave trough digs south across the Ohio River Valley pushing a cold front through the area. Daytime heating will once again warm temperatures back into the low to mid 90s. With sfc dewpoints in the lower 70s SBCAPE rises between 1000-1500 J/kg and DCAPE around 1000 J/kg. Therefore, expect another round of mostly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening, some of which could become strong to severe. The main threats will be damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning. Based on timing of where the front will be positioned tomorrow afternoon, the most favorable area for severe storms will be along and east of the I-65 corridor. This aligns well with the SPC Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 5) area.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday Night) Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Any lingering showers and storms will gradually come to an end by Tuesday night. The cold front will stall and linger somewhere near or just south of the Tennessee River. As a result, one more night of warm conditions is forecast with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front finally pushes south of the forecast area on Wednesday allowing a cooler and drier airmass to filter into the region. The lone exception may be northeast Alabama as a shortwave traverses along the western flank of the upper level trough clipping portions of our far east zones with a low to medium chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Further west, dry conditions are forecast with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Finally, Thursday will be the first taste of Fall as the cooler airmass continues to advect into the Tennessee Valley. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A Fall-like weather pattern will persist through the long term period as the Tennessee Valley sits underneath northwest flow that will continue to usher in a cooler airmass. Dry conditions continue with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. As we head into next week, a weak mid level ridge begins to shift into the Southeast. This should warm temperatures up a few degrees into the mid to upper 80s. At the same time a shortwave is forecast to dig southeast across the Plains. This would bring a low chance of precip during the day on Monday. However, this is quite far out and at this time there is low confidence in this occurring. Therefore, kept the NBM very low chance (5-15%) of showers on Monday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Cloud cover continues at issuance, but VFR conditions prevail. However, anticipating this cloud deck to thin out about 9-10Z, paving the way for at least patchy fog formation. This may bring reduced VIS (MVFR) at the terminals early this morning. Any fog will then lift and dissipate through mid-morning. The focus then turns to afternoon/evening thunderstorm activity. The greatest shower/storm probabilities look to be east of I-65. Therefore, MSL may only see VCSH through the afternoon, with low chances of showers/storms for HSV. Some storms may become strong to severe, bringing the potential for damaging winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall (and therefore, lower VIS and CIGs). Expecting this activity to then wane through the early evening, with little to no rain by mid-evening and light northerly winds overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.