textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- A significant warming trend will take place this weekend into early next week as daytime highs will climb into the lower 90s each day.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 246 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Satellite imagery shows the approaching cold front with a linear feature of clouds stretching southwest from western VA into central AR. At this time, no precip is occurring across TN and AL, but CAMs continue to show a few showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm developing in NE AL later this afternoon. Model soundings do show some elevated instability indicating for a low chance of a shower becoming tall enough to produce lightning. However, with a dry sfc layer in place, it is going to be tough for any storm to develop. Regardless, coverage will be low for any precip that develops this afternoon. As the front passes through, expect winds to gust 15 to 20 mph out of the NW before subsiding late tonight. Tranquil conditions are forecast through the night with overnight lows dropping down into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 924 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

The upper level low pressure system will continue moving eastwards Thursday amd high pressure will build over our area supporting clear skies and dry conditions. As a result of the Wednesday's passing cold front, temperatures will trend cooler compared to Wednesday with highs in the 70s across the TN Valley. Lack of cloud coverage will allow the TN Valley to experience radiational cooling resulting Thursday low temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Surface high pressure will allow for dry conditions to continue Friday and bring mostly clear skies. Sunny conditions will allow the TN Valley to begin warming back up to normal Friday with high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Mostly clear skies will once again allow our area to experience radiational cooling allowing low temperatures to fall to the mid 50s to low 60s across the area.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper ridging will largely maintain its hold over the region through the weekend; although a few shortwaves will ripple along the flow during this time. Model guidance indicates that PWAT values will be between 1.0-1.3 inches Saturday morning but decrease to under an inch through the weekend. Ultimately, confidence is low whether the aforementioned shortwaves and moisture will be enough to incite any shower or storm activity on Saturday. Currently, there are low chances of showers/storms, mainly over southern middle Tennessee on Saturday. Otherwise, expect dry conditions until a more prominent upper shortwave pivots from the central Plains over the Midwest Monday into Tuesday. In addition, a low pressure system looks to slide from the Great Lakes region into into eastern Canada by Tuesday. A trailing cold front from this low is expected to advance towards the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Furthermore, with return flow ushering in ample moisture early next week, guidance suggests that PWATs will jump to between 1.5-1.7 inches or so by Tuesday. Comparing this with BMX Sounding Climatology, these values are at or just over the 90th percentile for the day. Therefore, there will be much more moisture and lift, leading to the better chance at any showers or storms for the Long Term period (albeit still low at this point). Ultimately, there remains a fair bit of model disagreement and therefore low confidence, with this being at the tail end of the forecast time frame. However, we'll continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

We'll be watching temperatures throughout the weekend and early next week as well, since some models indicate that highs will reach at least the mid to upper 80s each day from Saturday through early next week. Our forecast actually calls for slightly higher temperatures by early next week (in the lower 90s). Even so, both sets of values are above the seasonal norms for this time of year (lower 80s for both Muscle Shoals and Huntsville from May 16th through the 20th). Additionally, NWS HeatRisk increases to level 2 of 5 (Moderate) for many locations by Monday/Tuesday, with wet bulb globe temperatures in the lower 80s (level 2 of 5; Moderate Threat). Thus, it's important to remember and practice heat safety! This is imperative not only for those that have outdoor activities such as children, but also for those that work outside such as construction workers. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Don't leave children or pets in vehicles!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

VFR conditions continue through the TAF period. A dry cold front swings through this afternoon increasing winds out of the NW. The winds will recede later tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.