textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

- Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons.

- Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Shower/storm activity from earlier this evening has dwindled in coverage and intensity, with just a lone shower moving across the NW AL landscape as of 10 PM. With the nocturnal inversion now in place and limited forcing, little to no shower activity is expected for the overnight. Areas that received heavier rainfall earlier today would be most prone to any fog development, along with the patchy fog that may typically occur in the narrow valleys of NE AL. That would include especially southern portions of Cullman County.

A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days.

Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration.

Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next few hours; however, guidance indicates that lower VIS and CIGs (down to IFR/LIFR) will again occur later tonight through early this morning due to fog and/or low stratus development. Have included this in in the TAFs for both terminals by 10/11Z. Expecting these conditions to erode through 13Z or so, with VFR returning for mid to late morning. Then, another day of low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms is forecast. There is uncertainty in exactly where and when the storms will develop and track; however, these may bring temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Any activity is slated to then wane through the evening hours. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.