textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 159 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A strong cold front will bring medium to high chance of thunderstorms Sunday Night, some of which may be strong to severe.

- A hard freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with lows in the middle to upper 20s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 159 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

The cold front has finally made it through the forecast area, producing wind gusts up to 30 mph at the leading edge. Widespread light to moderate rainfall continues across the TN Valley thanks to a disturbance just to our NW that will slide through. Showers will end from NW to SE this morning, finally moving out of our southeastern counties around sunrise. The tight pressure gradient will keep the northwest to northerly winds gusty through the late morning hours, finally slacking throughout this afternoon. Winds this morning will be 10-20 mph, gusting up to 30 mph, and will push in cooler and drier air to the region. This will help erode cloud cover leaving mostly sunny skies in place, but that won't override the CAA. We were in the lower 80s yesterday but today we will only be able to reach the 50s (lower 50s in the higher elevations, mid to upper 50s elsewhere). This is only a preview of what we can see early next week, so don't put away that jacket quite yet.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

The high/ridge axis will shift east into the Carolinas through the Gulf states Thursday night into early Friday. Patchy frost is possible as a result by Friday morning with lows in the middle 30s. Southerly flow will redevelop on Saturday allowing for a modest recovery into the lower to middle 60s. With dew points rising into the 40s, overnight lows Saturday night will only be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Extended range guidance suggests that an amplifying northern stream trough will dig southeastward from the central High Plains into the MO Valley on Sunday, before rapidly intensifying as it turns northeastward over the Mid-MS Valley and acquires a slight negative tilt Sunday night. As this occurs, a developing surface low will lift northeastward from eastern KS into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday before undergoing a phase of rapid deepening Sunday night over Lower MI. Southerly flow across our CWFA will strengthen throughout the day (supporting an increasing coverage of low clouds and perhaps some light showers), with temps warming into the l-m 70s. Beginning late Sunday morning, a strongly forced band of convection is predicted to evolve along the cyclone's cold front (in the MO Valley vicinity), with upscale growth predicted to occur throughout the afternoon/evening as the front accelerates southeastward. Present indications are that strengthening deep-layer forcing for ascent (enhanced by increasingly diffluent flow aloft) will maintain the frontal QLCS as it enters our region late Sunday evening and exits early Monday morning. In the presence of a sufficiently moist/unstable airmass (with dewpoints in the m50s-l60s), intense wind fields (highlighted by a 45-55 knot SSW low-level jet and WSW mid-level flow increasing to 100+ knots by 12Z Monday) will support a risk for strong-severe thunderstorms (including the potential for higher-caliber damaging winds as well as line-embedded mesocyclones and tornadoes).

In the wake of the arctic cold front, gusty northwest winds and cold advection will quickly drop temperatures into the m-u 30s by sunrise, and with postfrontal stratus expected to linger through much of the morning (and perhaps into the afternoon), it will be a struggle for temps to briefly touch the u40s-l50s Monday afternoon. With synoptic scale ascent predicted to remain rather strong until the passage of a mid-level trough Monday afternoon, a few sprinkles of cold rain or perhaps a snow flurry may also occur, but chances for measurable precipitation are very low at this point. Clearing skies, dewpoints in the lower teens and calm winds will result in a hard freeze early Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 20s. An increasing coverage of mid/high-level clouds associated with a clipper system will lead to similar high temps Tuesday, but a warming trend will begin Wednesday as highs rise back into the u50s-l60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

A strong cold front continues to sweep southeastward across the local forecast area, and should exit our southeastern counties by 6-7Z. However, lgt-mod postfrontal RA (along with IFR cigs and MVFR vsby reductions) will persist at the terminals for several more hours, before precipitation ends ~8Z/MSL and ~11Z/HSV. A lingering deck of broken/MVFR stratus will give way to SKC conds by 15-16Z, before a few high-lvl clouds return late in the period. Sfc winds will remain from the NNW at speeds of 15G25 kts during the early morning hours, before veering to NNE and slowly subsiding this aftn. Flow will become lgt/vrbl by the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.