textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

- There is a high (80-90%) chance for showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Sunday night. This will be followed by a dry conditions and a gradual warming trend Monday-Thursday.

- A low chance for showers and a few thunderstorms will return Friday afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

An intensifying mid/upper-level low will shift east-northeastward across Manitoba/Ontario over the course of the near term period, with an amplifying trough extending south-southwestward into the central High Plains. In response to this, a deepening area of low pressure will track northeastward from the western Great Lakes into southern Hudson Bay, with the low's trailing cold front predicted to extend from the Lower Great Lakes southwestward into the eastern Ozark Plateau and central TX by 12Z. Although dry conditions will prevail across our region overnight, an increase in high-level cloudiness is expected prior to sunrise, and this along with a light SSW wind will yield overnight lows in the u50s-m60s. Although brief development of patchy fog may occur around 12Z in wind-sheltered locations, conditions do not appear favorable for significant visibility reductions at this point.

Throughout the late morning hours tomorrow, an outflow boundary (originating from widespread convection across the central Plains) is expected to shift eastward across western KY/TN and northern MS, accompanied by a thin band of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms (which could begin to impact northwest AL by 16-18Z). As this feature advances further southeastward across our region tomorrow afternoon (several hours ahead of the actual cold front), it will encounter a capped boundary layer and weak convergence may not be able to generate updrafts capable of producing lightning. However, CAMs do suggest that more robust (but slightly elevated) convection may evolve in the wake of the outflow boundary but ahead of the cold front (which should enter northwest AL around 22-23Z). With mid-level WSW flow increasing to 45-55 knots and temps in the l-m 80s supporting CAPE of 300-500 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates may lead to a few instances of strong wind gusts (40-50 MPH) and small hail with this activity, with the general timeframe for any potential strong storms expected to begin around 20Z in the northwest and end around 2Z in the southeast.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

A rather strong cold front will continue to surge southeastward through our forecast area tomorrow evening, with the risk for thunderstorms likely to end across our southeastern zones by 2Z. However, with broad scale ascent expected to strengthen with the approach of a mid-level trough, conditions will remain favorable for light postfrontal rain (that should gradually end from NW-to- SE beginning late Saturday evening). Storm total rainfall amounts appear as if they will range from 0.75-1"(NW) to 0.25-0.5" (SE), although it is certainly possible that some locations will receive more (while a few locations may unfortunately receive less). Strong northerly winds in the wake of the front will quickly advect a cooler/drier, continental airmass into the region by sunrise on Sunday, with lows expected to be in the m-u 40s.

Dry northwest flow aloft will exist across the region from Sunday through Monday night, but should weaken by the end of the short term period as a low amplitude ridge travels eastward from the southern Rockies into the Lower MS Valley. Moderately strong CAA will continue throughout the day on Sunday, yielding highs ranging from the lower 60s atop the Cumberland Plateau to the m-u 60s in the valley. As surface high pressure builds eastward into the Mid- South region Sunday afternoon, winds will diminish, and this along with mostly clear skies will support cool overnight lows Monday morning (l-m 40s). Winds will remain light/variable on Monday and Monday night with high pressure centered to our northeast, and a gradual warming trend is anticipated as highs rebound into the l-m 70s Monday.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Extended range solutions from the global models suggest that a general absence of synoptic scale forcing for ascent will exist for much of the extended period, as a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing southeastward from the southern Plains into the eastern Gulf (Tuesday-Wednesday night) will be followed by mid- level height rises. This, along with lingering influences from a weakening dome of high pressure (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast), will result in dry weather conditions for the majority of the extended period. There are some indications that showers and a perhaps a few thunderstorms may return to western portions of the forecast area Friday afternoon in advance of a surface low over the northern Plains and cold front dropping southeastward into the Mid-MS Valley. However, there is a large amount of uncertainty regarding this scenario, and even if a few storms manage to develop, both shear and instability would favor weak/unorganized convection at this time. Temperatures will continue to increase, with highs returning to the l-m 80s (Wednesday-Friday), and overnight lows rising into the m-u 50s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 643 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

VFR conditions and more southerly winds between 5 and 10 knots are expected at both terminals overnight. By 17Z at KMSL and 18Z at KHSV, expect CIGS around 5000 feet to be in place. Winds should pick up to around 10 knots gusting to around 20 knots after 15Z and become southwesterly. Some -RA was added to account for possible precipitation after 20Z at KMSL and 22Z at KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.