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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1016 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

- Very low chances of showers and storms today, followed by mostly dry conditions this weekend. However, there is the potential for increased shower and storm chances Saturday evening/night as an MCS feature moves into the region.

- Greater rain chances then return next week, with daily chances of showers and storms persisting through at least midweek.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

Other than increasing forecast dew points this afternoon based on the latest observations, no other significant changes were needed. A few showers have formed near Florence and then down near Moulton and Hartselle this afternoon, but no lightning has been observed with this activity thus far. The showers have been also short-lived. Expecting this trend to continue through the remainder of the afternoon since the front has shifted south over central AL. Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s for most locations with highs on track to reach the upper 80s to around 90 degrees this afternoon. Lows are still expected to dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees, with the potential for patchy fog later tonight.

Previous Discussion:

The upper shortwave trough that aided in shower and storm development yesterday will gradually begin to shift eastward today and through the weekend. The surface front that also helped with shower and storm formation is slowly migrating southward from our area. By this afternoon, it's slated to be farther south over central Alabama. This coincides with model guidance showing slightly drier air moving into our area behind the front through the day and this evening (dew points in the upper 60s/lower 70s). Overall, this will keep most of the shower and storm activity to our south today; however, we cannot rule out a few showers and maybe a storm or two south of the Tennessee River and perhaps up into northeast Alabama today but chances are very low (10-20%). No rain is then forecast tonight.

As for temperatures, it won't be as warm as in recent days, but highs are forecast to top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Lows tonight should dip into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees. In addition, calm winds, clearing skies, and low dew point depressions may pave the way for some patchy fog development late tonight into early Saturday morning, especially in the river valleys and more sheltered locations. Although, any fog that forms isn't expected to become widespread dense at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

The aforementioned upper ridge tries to build farther into the Southeast through late weekend, pushing the upper trough northeastward. In addition, surface high pressure looks to slide into the Tennessee Valley by Sunday, but quickly shift to the east through the day. Some guidance hints at the potential for an MCS type feature to drop into the region from the northwest Saturday evening/night, bringing increased chances of showers and storms to the area. This doesn't look like the consensus just yet, but we're keeping an eye on these trends and the potential. Other than this, anticipating drier and slightly cooler conditions through the weekend. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common, along with lows in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 741 PM CDT Thu Aug 20 2026

A mean trough axis will remain in place over the eastern CONUS with a strong ridge over the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. This will keep a fairly active northwest flow regime over the central Plains and upper Midwest through the OH and TN valleys. This will keep at least low chances of showers and thunderstorms in play, with the big question begin details of MCS timing and intensity. It's far too early to discern this with much confidence, so will side with the NBM in this forecast. High temperatures will remain near normal in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the 60s to around 70.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

VFR conditions and partly cloudy skies were reported at the terminals at issuance. While there is a very low chance (10-20%) of a few showers and/or a storm today, this likely will not affect the TAF sites since the best chances are south of the TN River and over NE AL. Therefore, the main concern is with the fog potential tonight. Not confident in as much fog over MSL, but with recent rains, clearing skies, calm winds, and low dew point depressions around HSV, at least MVFR VIS is forecast late tonight into early Saturday morning. This will be monitored, as some guidance hints at the potential for even further reductions in VIS. Any fog will then lift and dissipate through mid-morning on Saturday, with northwest winds around 5 knots redeveloping by the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.