textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the lower 90s each afternoon.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 348 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Temperatures across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee are currently in the lower to mid 70s according to surface observations. Lows may ultimately be few degrees cooler (especially over portions of NE AL and southern middle Tennessee), but not expecting temperatures to cool too much more over the next few hours before sunrise with dew points in the lower 70s. With low dew point depressions, fog remains a concern through early this morning. In fact, the Nighttime Microphysics satellite imagery shows either fog development or low stratus (or a combination) for many areas over NE AL, north-central AL, and into southern middle Tennessee. There have been a couple sites that have reported dense fog over the past hour or two as well, but this is not widespread. Regardless, we will continue to monitor observations in case a Dense Fog Advisory becomes necessary. If you encounter fog while traveling this morning, make sure to use your low beam headlights and keep plenty of space in between you and the vehicle in front of you. Low ceilings and/or visibilities will persist through early this morning but erode through mid- morning. Our focus then shifts to the low to medium (30-50%) chances of showers and storms this afternoon and into this evening. Current thinking and our forecast remains on track for this afternoon (see details below), with highs topping out in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees.

Previous Discussion:

A mid/upr closed low centered over the Mid-Miss Valley region will transform into more of an open wave and become increasingly sheared as it moves to the NE on Wednesday. Dynamic lift on its SE flank may once again help to trigger isolated to scattered areas of showers/storms. It is still difficult to forecast which areas may be more favored for convection tomorrow. One might reasonably suspect areas closer to the parent upr low. However, convergent low-level flow evident in streamline analyses (albeit weak) appears favored in southern portions of the area, which is collocated with a more favorable thermodynamic environment. Thus, the argument could be made for slightly higher POPs in southern areas. Apart from these other forcing mechanisms, convection will tend to be the result of differential sfc heating and outflow boundaries. The latest guidance suite suggests perhaps a weaker thermodynamic profile for Wednesday (than Tuesday), although some strong updrafts and thus downdrafts could occur capable of producing strong winds, but the threat for severe weather appears to be very small.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

On Thursday the sheared tendrils of mid/upr vorticity following the parent upr low/wave will cross the area, aiding in the the potential for shower/storm development once again. This would probably be favored in eastern areas per the guidance suite. POPs are thus a little higher there during peak heating in the afternoon hours. Otherwise, mean mid/upr-lvl flow will become more zonal in nature in the TN/OH Valleys amidst an increase in upr westerly flow in the southern branch of a split-flow jet. This will help to enhance shower/storm development to our north with the potential for outflows leading to further convection in our area. This actually goes for both Thursday and Friday. Thermodynamic profiles look downburst"y" both days, with steep low-level lapse rates, rich low-level moisture, and high vertical theta-e differences present. Currently, we're just outlooked for "general" thunderstorm activity, which may be owing partly to the coverage expected, however, this may need to be watched over the coming days.

Outside of any thick clouds and shower/storm presence, conditions will continue to feel summer-like with heat indices still pushing 100 degrees both days.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration.

Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Low stratus in addition to fog has formed overnight and some of the fog has become dense in a few locations. For the terminals, this has led to mainly MVFR conditions at MSL, but varying VIS at HSV. Therefore, have included temporary low VIS and CIGs at both TAF sites through 14Z (but VIS down to 1/4SM at times for HSV). We will continue to monitor this over the next few hours, but any fog and/or stratus should erode through mid-morning. Then, the main concern for the day will be showers and storms this afternoon. There remains uncertainty in exactly where and when storms will develop and track; however, these bring the potential for temporary reductions in VIS and CIGs as well as gusty winds and frequent lightning where they do develop. Showers and storms are then slated to diminish this evening. Outside of storms, expect calm winds at night with westerly winds around 5 knots or so during the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.