textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms mainly in northeast Alabama Monday

- Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances (40-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day, from Wednesday through next weekend

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

Late this evening, satellite imagery and surface observations indicate an area of outflow from previous convection over Georgia moving into eastern Alabama. Besides brief gusty winds ~15-20 mph, a narrow band of cu/stratocu along the outflow boundary has produced a few showers, but those have been south/southeast of our area. It does not appear that showers will develop in NE Alabama at this time, but wanted to mention the boundary anyway as a brief, mild increase in SERLY winds may occur atop the plateau especially. Otherwise, satellite imagery indicates largely translucent high cirrus streaming into the area from the west, which could curb temperature falls a little. Nevertheless, lows tonight are still expected to fall to the low/mid 60s by daybreak Monday.

For Monday, a plume of enhanced moisture on the western edge of the sub-tropical ridge will move a little further into AL, although highest moisture content is expected to be to our south. Nevertheless, a few showers/storms could develop particularly along the plume axis during peak heating in the afternoon. Vertical thermo and shear profiles are not supportive of any strong storm organization, with 0-6km bulk shear generally at or less than just 15 kts.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

From Monday night into Wednesday, the broad upr ridge will continue to hold sway across the Southeast, with deep SW-W flow remaining across the TN Valley. A trough in the Intermountain West into the North/Central Plains will remain nearly steady initially, but become increasingly positively tilted and deamplify as short waves round its base and move NEWRD. Essentially, the sub-tropical ridge will maintain dominance over much of the Southeast CONUS and westward into the Southern Plains, keeping the trough from advancing. However, a low-level boundary will make inroads towards the mid-South by mid-week, while SWRLY flow along the trough/ridge interface edges closer to the area. The result will be increased instability across our area with higher dew points and added dynamic forcing by late Tuesday and into Wednesday. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase to low/medium during this period, with better chances in NW portions of the area closer to the better forcing. With a continued lack of deep layer shear, and modest thermo profiles, the activity will be more akin to general thunderstorm activity late Tuesday into Wednesday. Increased dew points will create warmer feeling conditions overall, but increased clouds and shower activity will make for lower max temperatures during the day especially on Wednesday.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This pattern will continue largely unabated from Wednesday night into the weekend, with a broad summer-like subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda and deep SWRLY flow persisting across the TN Valley. A series of shortwaves are expected to ride along the trough/ridge interface across the region and bring bouts of increased shower/storm activity. Timing this is difficult, as the distinct nature of these shortwaves is difficult to discern in the model guidance. Nevertheless, increased instability during the daytime will certainly act to regulate chances for showers/storms during the period. Thermo profiles during the Thurs-Friday period do not appear to change significantly, with generally moist- adiabatic type profiles in the increasing deep/humid airmass. PWs climbing to near 1.7 inches and only modest CAPEs and weak-modest shear would suggest the largest threat may be due to any localized flash flooding that could result, especially with the prospect for slow-moving training storms. Shear may increase a little into the weekend, but still would characterize as modest at best. Overall, this is reminiscent of a warm, early summer pattern with highs mostly in the 80s and warm nights with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1155 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.