textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 920 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

- High chances for rain and low chances for a few thunderstorms will move into the area late Friday into Saturday.

- A gradual warming trend will begin Sunday/Monday, with above normal temperatures favored through much of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 400 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Light south-southwesterly flow at the surface will continue across the TN Valley early this morning, within the gradient between a weakening high over the eastern Gulf and a mid-level shortwave trough and related surface low tracking east- southeastward across northwest TX. The combination of wind and an overcast canopy of cirrostratus (with some virga) spreading eastward ahead of the approaching disturbance has led to milder temperatures this morning (compared to yesterday) with current readings ranging from the mid 30s in the sheltered valleys of northeast AL to the mid 40s in the west.

Over the course of the day, the previously mentioned surface low will shift more slowly into northeastern TX and decay as the parent mid-level wave races eastward into western TN. Nevertheless, a warm front extending eastward from the low into central AL will become more defined with time, forcing low-level flow across our CWFA to back to the east this afternoon. This in conjunction with strengthening WSW flow at the 700-mb level will yield deeper lift across the region this afternoon, with light rain beginning to overspread the region from the southwest as early as 16-18Z. Both coverage and intensity of precipitation will increase between 22-24Z as the shortwave trough approaches, and although elevated CAPE appears very low in forecast soundings (less than 100 J/kg), a few elevated thunderstorms will also be possible (especially later this evening). Due to overcast skies and the onset of rain by early afternoon, highs will be a few degrees cooler than yesterday and in the 55-60F range.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday night) Issued at 920 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

The morning will start off mild with warmer than normal temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Cloud cover will continue to increase ahead of a fast approaching shortwave moving out of the lower MS Valley. Forecast soundings continue to show there should be enough dry air in the lower levels to hold off rain chances until the afternoon and evening hours. So if you are needing to take down any holiday decorations before they get wet, that is your window to do so. Low end rain chances (20-30%) will return around lunch time in NW AL and start to spread eastward through the afternoon hours. Higher end rain chances (60-80%) will move on in as the shortwave encroaches during the evening hours before coverage becomes widespread with a few elevated thunderstorms overnight. Although it will be a quick bout of rain, the precipitation is much needed as we are currently in a D1 Moderate Drought. Currently, rainfall totals look to be 0.75-1" with amounts that could be locally higher.

On Saturday, showers will come to an end from west to east through the late morning. Behind that we'll find more northerly winds in place and drier air moving in helping cloud cover start to decrease. Look for slightly warmer than normal daytime highs as they reach the upper 50s Saturday afternoon. Depending on how quickly the cloud cover disperses, could see some patchy fog Saturday night as lows reach the lower 30s with light winds. High pressure will keep Sunday dry and seasonable with highs in the lower 50s and lows in the low/mid 30s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 920 PM CST Thu Jan 1 2026

Early next week, an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high shifts into the TN Valley from the west. As a result, dry conditions remain in place through mid week. Zonal upper level flow returns mid week as an upper level trough shifts northeast through the Deep South. We will be monitoring how this trough deepens/steers toward the weekend, however, have continued with blended guidance for now. This allows low rain chances (30% or less) through the TN Valley both Wednesday and Thursday ahead of a potential frontal system. Highs during the long term period are forecast to be above normal in response to the aforementioned ridge, with temperatures climbing into the mid to upper 60s by Thursday. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 40s-50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Observed conditions at the HSV/MSL terminals remain VFR early this morning, featuring a bkn layer of Cs and lgt SSW winds. Over the course of the morning, cloud bases will gradually descend to arnd 8 kft by 16Z as atmospheric lift strengthens ahead of an approaching storm system. Light rain will begin to overspread the region from W-to-E early this aftn, likely beginning at MSL/19Z and HSV/20Z. Both intensity and coverage of rain will continue to increase during the late aftn/evening hours, resulting in a window of MVFR cigs/vsby that will persist at both airports thru the end of the valid TAF period. Although a few elevated TSRA will also be possible, coverage of thunderstorm activity currently appears to sparse to mention in the official forecast. Sfc winds will progressively back from SSW to ESE as the storm system's surface low tracks immediately south of our CWFA, with sustained speeds increasing to 5-10 kts (and occasional higher gusts beginning this aftn).

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.