textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Rain and embedded thunderstorms will continue across the southeastern portion of the forecast area through early this afternoon, before decreasing in coverage later today. Occasional lightning and brief moderate-heavy rainfall will be the main impacts.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

There has been no change in near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning, as both trends in radar data and high-resolution model guidance suggest that lingering light rain will end across our southeastern forecast zones by 3-5 PM. However, with skies expected to remain cloudy elsewhere, we expect high temperatures to only reach the mid 70s. Overnight, we will retain a low-medium (20-40%) chance POP for potential redevelopment of showers as the leading edge of a drier, continental airmass finally begins to enter the region from the northwest. North-northeast flow at the surface will progressively strengthen during the early morning hours, and with lingering clouds expected to remain intact, overnight lows will range from the u50s to m60s.

Previous Discussion: In the mid/upper-levels, a deepening northern stream trough will progress eastward across northern Ontario over the course of the short term period, with a subtle shear axis extending southwestward from this feature expected to slowly track southeastward across our forecast area today before exiting this evening. A minor increase in synoptic scale ascent has taken place as WSW flow aloft has increased into the 15-25 knot range, and this has supported the development of widespread rain and embedded thunderstorms in the vicinity of a surface trough positioned across our southeastern counties. However, across the northwestern portion of the CWFA, weakly confluent flow aloft exists (due to the general orientation of the subtropical ridge and mid-level shear axis), and this along with lack of low-level convergence has yielded a much lower coverage of light rain/sprinkles.

We expect this regime to persist through early afternoon, before precipitation begins to diminish as winds aloft veer to NNW and subside in the wake of the shear axis. With rich, tropical moisture still in place across the region (featuring PWAT values of 1.9-2.1") we will continue to monitor pockets of heavier rainfall across the southeast, which could result in flash or areal flooding. Otherwise, fairly low MLCAPE (up to 500 J/kg) suggest that a few embedded thunderstorms (capable of producing occasional lightning) will be a secondary impact. Due to the combination of morning precipitation and low stratus clouds (which are expected to linger for much of the day), we have lowered the max temperature forecast for this afternoon into the mid 70s.

Pockets of rain and any lingering convection across our southeastern counties will gradually dissipate over the course of the evening. Overnight, a surface high will shift eastward across the northern Plains and into the Upper MS Valley, with a low- level ridge axis building east-southeastward into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley and central Appalachians. As this occurs, N-NE gradient flow will begin to strengthen across our region during the early morning hours, with PWAT values dropping rapidly and skies expected to clear from NW-to-SE by sunrise. Low temperatures will range from the m-u 50s/NW to l-m 60s/SE.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1146 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Surface high pressure will shift east-southeastward from the Upper MS Valley into the central Appalachians on Monday/Monday night, with a contracted low-level pressure gradient supporting elevated N-NE winds (sustained 10-15 MPH and gusts of 20-25 MPH) across our region for much of the day tomorrow. This will result in a notable gradient in dewpoints, as strong mixing in this environment will support values in the u40s-l50s across the northwest, with slightly higher values along the northern edge of a lingering moisture plume in the southeast. Although a few showers may develop as the onset of easterly flow (related to surface pressure rises across western VA/NC/SC) intercepts this plume of higher moisture, this activity should largely be displaced to the E/SE of our CWFA and we will maintain a dry forecast. Afternoon highs (with abundant sunshine) will return to the l-m 80s on Monday, followed by overnight lows in the u40s-m50s Monday night.

Dry northwest flow aloft of 10-20 knots will continue across the TN Valley on Tuesday/Tuesday night, as low-level flow veers to the southeast and weakens with the departure of a surface high off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Although afternoon highs will be comparable to those from Monday, overnight lows will be a few degrees warmer due to a minor increase in boundary layer dewpoints.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Surface high pressure by the mid week should be situated over the coastal Mid Atlantic region. An anticyclonic flow rounding the western periphery of this high will bring a SE flow across the Deep South, and help continue a gradual warming trend. Despite the days getting shorter progressing trough the autumn, above normal warmth should continue for the mid and latter portions of the new week. Highs on Wed should rise into the low/mid 80s under generally sunny skies. Temperatures should creep up a tad both Thu and Fri, with highs on Fri in the mid/upper 80s. Lows Wed and Thu night should range from the mid/upper 40s in those normally cooler locations, to the mid 50s near large bodies of water. Normal high/low temperatures by Fri, Oct 9th are around 79/55.

The SE flow will gradually bring more moisture and clouds inland from the Gulf region was we near the weekend. Enough of this moisture return will also bring lower end rain chances back to the Tennessee Valley - right in time for the next upcoming weekend. The moisture should make for somewhat milder conditions Fri night with lows in the 50s, and highs on Sat with rain chances in the low/mid 80s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Broken layers of MVFR-level stratus (with bases of 1500-2500 ft) will persist at the HSV/MSL terminals early in the period, beneath an overcast canopy of Cs. However, cloud bases will progressively rise, with VFR conds expected to return by 22Z. Although there is a non-zero probability for a few sprinkles of rain or lgt SHRA, chances are far too low to include in the TAFs attm. Further lifting/scattering of the stratus layer will occur this evening, as strengthening N-NE winds advect a drier airmass into the region. SKC conds will return by 12Z, with N-NE winds of 12G20 kts anticipated beginning shortly after 12Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.