textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1027 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Moderate impacts expected with a winter storm Friday night through Sunday. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued from 6 PM on Friday through 6 PM on Sunday.

- Dangerously cold temperatures Sunday night into Monday with single digit wind chills forecast.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1052 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

In the low-levels, a surface high (marking the center of a modified Canadian airmass) will shift east-southeastward from the Mid-MS Valley into the OH Valley today, maintaining light- moderate NE flow in the boundary layer and mild cold/dry air advection to the north of a surface trough extending from the northwestern Gulf into northern GA. Elevated warm/moist advection north of the trough (which contributed to widespread light rain overnight) will steadily weaken over the course of the day, with the axis of lingering light rain expected to shift southward and dissipate this afternoon. However, broken-overcast clouds aloft and weak cold advection will lead to a sightly cooler day (compared to yesterday) featuring highs in the u40s-l50s.

Present indications are that the northern edge of the light stratiform precipitation regime will remain to our immediate south/east overnight, and aligned with a belt of stronger WSW flow at the 850-mb layer. Across our CWFA, lingering mid-level clouds will begin to disperse later this evening, and as the leading edge of a bitterly cold/dry arctic airmass begins to enter the region (originating from a 1050+mb high across southern SK) temperatures will fall into the mid 30s by sunrise.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight night through Sunday) Issued at 1027 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Our attention quickly turns to a potentially very impactful winter storm system that will be impacting much of the Mid South, Tennessee and Ohio Valleys, and Southern Appalachians this weekend. The aforementioned front will remain in the vicinity of the area on Friday (with low chances (20-30%) of rain in the forecast through the mid afternoon -- before finally shifting further south after sunset, In response, a modified arctic air mass will make its way into the Tennessee valley, with surface temperatures dropping into the 20s in most locations by 06-12z Saturday.

With the cold air in place, the next question that needs to be answered will be the evolution and track of a deepening upper- level storm system over Baja California. This system will track east as it pushes into Texas and the lower Mississippi Valley Saturday into Sunday, and a surface low will form along the northern Gulf Coast and track ENE/NE across portions of the Deep South. Ahead of this system, deep southerly flow will advect Gulf moisture into the Tennessee Valley, with a strong subtropical supplying moisture from the Pacific as well.

Recent trends suggest the aforementioned surface low tracking more north of east (and closer to north Alabama), resulting in a warmer vertical temperature profile. So what does this mean for an already complicated forecast? The coldest temperature profiles (that favor snow) will likely be displaced to our north and west. This is reflected in model sounding guidance that shows a pronounced later of warmer air aloft (as much as 3-7 degrees C). This means that the predominant precipitation type is trending toward liquid water (with some sleet potentially mixing in if the warmer air is shallower), beginning just after Midnight Friday night into the morning hours on Saturday. This light to moderate burst of precipitation will likely result in some ice accretion across most of the Tennessee Valley (potentially between 0.10" to 0.25" of an inch) by 18z Saturday.

As noted, the temperature profile may begin to gradually warm over portions of the area (especially for locations east of I-65) above the freezing mark. Should this occur it would mitigate impacts at least temporarily over parts of the area. However, western portions of the region may stay at/below freezing Saturday and Saturday night. As a result, heavier icing could occur in those area and reach the 0.5" to 1.0" range through Saturday evening/night. Additionally, a mix of freezing rain, sleet, and rain will occur across much of the area, with precipitation type for specific locations dictated by the surface temperature. The uncertainties with the evolution of this system (including other guidance that keeps surface temperatures a little colder), still gives us concern for an impactful winter storm in some capacity across much of the region. Locations that receive heavier ice accumulations will be much more prone to power outages which will be a big concern after this event with the bitter cold air moving in. It is critical for everyone across the Tennessee Valley to use their time wisely during the day Thursday/Friday and prepare for these potentially hazardous conditions.

Precipitation will taper off Sunday afternoon from west to east as the system shifts east. However, impacts will be far from over as a bitter cold subfreezing air mass will quickly move in. Any lingering slush/sleet or liquid on area roadways will quickly freeze, resulting in hazardous travel conditions. More on this in the section below. Due to our high confidence in at least minor to moderate impacts from winter weather during this Friday night through Sunday window, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for the entire Tennessee Valley 00z Saturday to 00z Monday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1027 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

In wake of the winter storm, a dangerous cold air mass will move into the Tennessee Valley Sunday evening into Sunday night. Our temperatures will fall into the single digits to lower Teens (8 to 13 degree range), with wind chills falling below zero across much of the area! Any lingering liquid on roadways will quickly turn to black ice and hazardous travel conditions will persist well into the day on Monday. While cloud cover will finally erode during the day on Monday, strong cold air advection will make it hard for temperatures to climb above the freezing mark. The sun may improve roads somewhat by the afternoon -- but any remaining slush will quickly refreeze after sunset.

Monday night will be the coldest night, with forecast temperatures currently between 3 to 8 degrees. Depending on what the remaining snow/ice pack is, a few subzero readings could occur across the Plateau southern middle Tennessee. This type of cold doesn't occur every winter and it will be important to be prepared for it. We finally climb above the freezing mark during the day both Tuesday and Wednesday, but temperatures will fall back into the Teens each night. Still, a marked improvement from the single digits earlier in the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through the TAF period at both terminals with mid level clouds around 3-4kft and northeast winds becoming light and variable overnight.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1117 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between January 29, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is greater than a 60% chance for temperatures below 17-20 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Ice Storm Warning from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ001>003.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ004>010-016.

TN...Winter Weather Advisory from midnight Friday night to 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.