textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 903 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- A lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight, with the main concern being brief strong winds.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase once again on Monday-Tuesday, with lightning and heavy rainfall/flash flooding the main impacts.

- A progressively lower coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected from Wednesday-Saturday, with dangerous heat becoming an increasing concern by Friday/Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms present this evening are expected to decrease in coverage as the night continues. However, a small presence of this activity may remain as instability and physical forcing is maximized along bands of vorticity extending from a parent shortwave. Brief gusty winds and lightning may accompany some of the small intense cores. Otherwise, as indicated activity is expected to be relatively minor from a coverage and intensity standpoint. Fog and some low stratus are expected to develop overnight, especially in areas where appreciable rains fell. Multi-spectral satellite imagery is beginning to show the apparent development of at least low clouds, if not some fog, in portions of southern Middle TN and NE AL. It would be no surprise to see fog development as is typical this time of year in the narrow valleys of NE AL.

On Monday, a pronounced longwave ridge pattern will take shape across much of the CONUS. Centered over the upper Midwest, operational models are forecasting a 600 dam deeply stacked ridge situated over IA/MN/SD/WI during the day. As this ridge develops, clockwise flow on its southern flank translates to easterly winds in much of the mid/upr levels. This will cause the upr low in the TN Valley to move in a retrograde fashion back to the west, crossing our area once again. Showers/storms are expected to develop by late morning with the onset of sufficient heating, and continue into the afternoon. Storm motions will tend to be toward the south/southwest, but propagation may tend to be opposite of storm motion, leading to some standing wave development and a tendency for heavy rain in some areas. Given PWs ~2 inches, locations may need to be monitored for excessive rainfall and flash flooding. The WPC has included the area in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall in fact. Otherwise, soundings may be supportive of some strong wind gusts, but the severe weather risk appears to be very small, with "general" thunderstorm activity expected.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As the broad upr ridge expands eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Tues, the upr low will continue on its trek to the west but with effects still over our region. In addition to this, deepening S-SE flow will allow for the advection on an increasingly moist deep layer air mass into the region, with PWs reaching ~2.1 to 2.2 inches Tues and Wed. Forecast thermo parameters and sounding profiles would continue to suggest a primary threat for flash flooding during the period with relatively weak deep layer flow/shear and slow storm motions. Shower/storm coverage looks to be greater on Tuesday as compared to Wednesday, with the effects of the upr low overhead, but pushing westward. By Wednesday, its influence will begin to wane, but enough presence of remnant sheared vorticity to generate shower/storm activity once again...well that combined with sufficient moisture and heating. Daytime high temperatures during the period will tend to be relatively mild due to the potential abundance of shower activity and cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Ridging at the mid levels coupled with high pressure at the surface will work to displace our lingering surface low and associated front by the start of the long term period. This will allow slightly drier air to filter in at the mid levels and work to gradually decrease our rain chances through the period. Chances drop from around 50% Thursday afternoon to below 30% by Sunday afternoon. In wake of the higher rain chances, heat will build back in with highs making it into the low 90s for the weekend. Unfortunately surface moisture will remain plentiful with dew points in the mid 70s. This will allow weekend heat indices to creep into the triple digits. While conditions currently look to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, proper heat safety will still be necessary for those partaking in outdoor activities.

Despite the lower rain chances, a stray stronger storm each afternoon will post a sneaky secondary threat behind heat. Conditions will remain favorable for gusty downburst winds among the strongest storms. Make sure to remain weather aware if spending time outdoors and check back for the latest updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 pm CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

An upr-lvl low pressure system will continue to maintain a presence over the area during the period, helping to instigate SHRA/TSRA activity. Activity present attm should begin to wane with the loss of daytime heating this evening, but bring perhaps lgt SHRA to HSV ~0100-0200. Otherwise the development of low stratus is anticipated tomorrow morning, beginning first at KMSL, and may bring IFR (or perhaps lower) ceilings to the TAF sites. SHRA/TSRA are expected to expand again in coverage especially by ~18-19Z as the upr low begins to move back westward across the region. Current TAFs have hedged optimistically with ceilings/vis, but certainly lower categories would likely occur in any heavier activity, although low confidence in timing at this point.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.