textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Moderate impacts expected with a winter storm Friday night through Sunday. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued from 6 PM on Friday through 6 PM on Sunday.

- Dangerously cold temperatures Sunday night into Monday with single digit wind chills forecast.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 249 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Ahead of an approaching front associated with a long wave trough, rain and clouds have begun to overspread the area. Despite the dreary conditions, SW surface flow ahead of the front has allowed for some (relatively) warm air to nudge north into the TN Valley with current temperatures in the mid to high 50s. The front looks to reach the area late this evening, decreasing rain chances slowly from north to south through the night. Fortunately the SSW flow during the day paired with overcast conditions overnight will moderate lows and keep them in the mid to high 30s. Thus, no winter precip is forecast, nor black ice. Come sunrise, the front looks to stall along our southern CWA border maintaining low rain chances (20-30%) for areas south of the TN River.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1032 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

The aformentioned front looks to stall in the TN Valley on Thursday with low rain chances lingering through the day. Simultaneously, two significant features will will be developing to our west. To our northwest, a significant surface high filled with continental Canadian Arctic air will continue to build in the the northern Plains and push into the TN Valley from Thursday into Friday. To our SW a surface low will translate across Mexico and Texas. How these two features interact through the weekend will drive how much precip we get, and potentially more importantly, what type of precip we get. The high pressure will provide sufficient cold air to allow for winter precip, the surface low will provide the lift and moisture to support high PoPs.

How is this all going to play out? I wish I had the final answer, however it is very dependent on the final track of the approaching surface low. Recent models have trended warmer due to the surface low taking a relatively northern track and, in turn, keeping the coldest air/atmospheric profiles off to our NW. This trend is reflected in our current forecast with lower snow totals. What we will need to keep an eye on is if this trend continues. Ensembles still show a variety of different solutions for the surface low track and as a result, total amounts for rain, snow, and ice.

As for our current forecast, low to medium chances of rain arrive for areas south of the TN River Friday afternoon. Fortunately, models maintain a transition window from rain to winter precip between 00-06Z late Friday evening when surface temperatures finally drop below freezing. Please plan to have all preparations made by Friday afternoon. Unfortunately, models maintain a hefty and prolonged warm nose in the soundings. While the warm nose looks to fluctuate in size through the event, it is leading to higher confidence in seeing ice accumulations rather than snow. This is represented in the models as the snow accumulations have been pushed further north of the state line and ice accumulations have prevailed. This trend is supported by the overnight and morning guidance coming in warmer. For us this means significantly less snow totals (less than 2" through the event), increasing ice accumulations and, in a late new addition, regular rain.

Rain looks to transition to mixed winter precip late Friday night. Unfortunately the mixed precip looks to be a form of ice between ice pellets, sleet, or freezing rain. This will lead to ice accumulation across the area with between 0.05" and 0.10" of ice on surfaces come Saturday morning. This looks to continue through the morning with additional ice accumulations through the day. Saturday afternoon is where we will see the most significant forecast changes. Several models are now showing rain mixing back in for areas south of the river in NE AL. This could aid in melting some existing ice however with temps quickly falling below freezing again Saturday night, even if it falls as rain, any liquid will freeze on the roads overnight. Because of this warmer trend, snow accumulations have decreased area wide, ice accumulations have increased for NW AL and southern middle TN, and ice totals have decreased for NE AL (due to the precip falling as rain). While this has a large potential to change, right now an 1+ inches of ice accumulation is forecast in NW AL and southern middle TN, with 0.25-0.5" forecast in NE AL through the event. While amounts in NW AL look highest leading to higher potential for power outages (especially with wind gusts up to 20+ MPH on Saturday), 0.25" of ice is enough to make travel impossible for the whole area.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 447 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Confidence continues to increase in major impacts from a winter storm across the TN Valley Friday night through the weekend. Take some time now to make necessary preparations ahead of this storm. In short, where you are Friday night is where you will likely be stuck through Monday as a wintry mix of precip combined with subfreezing temperatures will make for hazardous travel.

As an Arctic airmass filters in Friday, temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing. A wintry mix of precip will begin to overspread the area from west to east starting Friday night. A deepening low pressure system across Southern CA will eject eastward and in response, the upper level jet will strengthen resulting a very favorable synoptic environment across the local forecast area. The biggest question is what type of precip will fall? Ensemble guidance continues to show a small warm nose aloft in the vertical profile. This will result in all types of wintry precip including snow, ice, and freezing rain. What does appear likely is that further north of the TN River there are higher probabilities of snow and further south the probabilities increase for both freezing rain and sleet.

Though uncertainty of what type of winter weather will end up producing possible winter storm conditions across the area Friday night through Sunday afternoon, confidence is high enough (50-60% confidence) to warrant either ice accumulation or snow/sleet accumulations that could reach winter storm criteria (snow - at least 2 to 3 inches and ice at least 0.25 inches). Thus, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee from 6 PM on Friday through 6 PM on Sunday.

Precip comes to an end Sunday evening from west to east. In its wake, a very cold airmass pushes in bringing dangerously cold conditions to the TN Valley. Overnight lows Sunday drop down into the lower teens with wind chills near zero. Temperatures will remain below freezing on Monday with overnight lows dropping down into the single digits. Fortunately by Monday night winds should remain light keeping wind chills at the observed temperatures. We finally warm up above freezing on Tuesday, but only into the mid 30s. Unfortunately, this prolonged stretch of cold weather will likely keep hazardous travel conditions into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Rain is forecast to continue tonight into early tomorrow morning. As a result, cigs will gradually drop tonight starting at high end MVFR to low end VFR and then dropping down below fuel alternate. Within any heavier rain, IFR cigs are possible. Vsby should remain between 4 to 6 SM. VFR conditions return during the morning tomorrow.

CLIMATE

Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Moderate and/or High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between January 28, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures below 18-21 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for TNZ076-096-097.