textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 926 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Very high rain chances of rain (100%) will continue into the early afternoon today, with localized flash flooding and areal flooding the main concern, especially across northwest Alabama. - Medium to high chances (40-90%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 926 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A shortwave trough will pivot through the region today, bringing very high (100%) chances for showers and a few thunderstorms to the Tennessee Valley this morning. Rain gauges across Lauderdale and Colbert Counties have reported 2-3" of rain since Midnight, with localized amounts of 4-5" across the western portions of both counties. It is in these enhanced rainfall area that extends from Cherokee to east of Florence that flash flooding may be occurring and we've issued a Flash Flood Warning until 11:45 AM to account for this. Meanwhile, an Areal Flood Warning is in effect until 10 AM CST for locations in NW Alabama not in the FFW. This Areal Flood Warning will need to be extended through the remainder of the morning. Elsewhere, rainfall amounts of around one inch have been common, with localized amounts up to 2". The bands of moderate to heavy rainfall will continue to shift north and east through the early/mid afternoon, and additional flooding concerns may exist on a localized level until then. Precipitation will taper off quickly from west to east by the evening as the shortwave shifts east. Mostly cloudy conditions overnight will keep temperatures mild and in the 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 926 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

A ridge axis over the northern Gulf will build back into the area Monday and Tuesday. This feature and breezy southerly winds will advect in and maintain a warm, moist air mass into the Tennessee Valley. Despite the cloud cover, enough breaks will allow for enough heating to warm highs into the low to mid 70s. An approaching trough/front from the west will attempt to nose its way into the region late Tuesday afternoon/evening, but with timing trending a little later, think we'll remain dry through 00z. More on the higher rain chances Tuesday night into Wednesday in the section below.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1101 PM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

We could get some isolated showers or thunderstorms develop as early as Tuesday evening as the longwave trough axis and associated surface front push east into eastern Arkansas/western Mississippi. Better chances for rain look to develop overnight into Wednesday morning over northwestern Alabama. This still looks to be a heavy rainfall event given several aspects of the evolution of this storm system. Overall surface based instability will be very hard to get and 0-6 km bulk shear does not look quite as strong as a few days ago. However, PWATS will be high for this time of year (1.5 to 1.65 inches). Also, during the day on Wednesday as the front moves closer to the area, upper level diffluence will be strong west of the I-65 corridor and we will be in the right entrance region of the upper level jet. Also, a 40 knot 850 jet will be over the area as well. This all points to very strong/deep lift that will be in place, maybe primarily over areas west of the I-65 corridor into northeastern Mississippi. One to three inches of rainfall with locally up to 4 inches looks possible in those areas. It does look like there will be a decent drop off in rainfall totals near and east of the I-65 corridor (maybe not even over 1 inch). A few models are hinting that higher amounts over 5 inches could be possible in NW Alabama through Wednesday evening. One of the main reasons this setup may occur is the stoutness of the upper ridge just off the coast of the Carolinas and Virginia. The upper low butts heads with this feature during that period before finally moving northward over it late Wednesday night into Thursday, taking precipitation northward with it. Wednesday should be cooler again with clouds and precipitation expected. Highs will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Not much change into Friday with lingering cloud cover as the upper low continues to move northeast into the central Great Lakes region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Inclement conditions were occurring, as moderate to heavy showers traverse the area. Embedded thunderstorms were occurring with the heavier showers over NW AL. Thunder for the most part should remain over NW AL where higher instability and shear were present. The area of convection should continue moving eastward, with VSBY and/or CIG values reduced to MVFR. Brief reductions to IFR or even lower cannot be ruled out in the heaviest showers. Shower activity should gradually wind down as we go into the evening. Have denoted the lighter precip as drizzle with some fog. Easterly winds of around 10kt should continue for much of the TAF, although some higher gusts could occur into the mid afternoon. Winds near the boundary layer, ~2000ft aloft were in the 35-40kt range from the SE, therefore have Low-Level Wind Shear indicated at KMSL and KHSV into the mid afternoon. These stronger winds should slowly subside as we go into the evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.