textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 305 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- A significant warming trend this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the Tennessee by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Some virga is still pushing east across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Dewpoint depression are around 20 degrees in most locations, this will keep any rainfall aloft from reaching the ground. Low level flow will become more southwesterly increasing low level moisture overnight. This may end up causing some very patchy fog with light and variable winds expected tonight.

The main impact will be warm temperatures overnight, as temperatures will likely only fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday)

Issued at 1133 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The ridging builds back into the southeast again on Sunday. 925 mb temperatures climb to between 21 and 23 degrees in most guidance. Models continue to develop strong low level forcing over most of Georgia. The western edge of this activity (mostly 20-30% coverage) will seep near the AL/GA line and just west of there. Not seeing much shear in model guidance, but SBCAPE does increase. So some general thunderstorms could develop. Most areas will see highs climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s.

This forcing dissipates by Sunday night with the loss of daytime heating as the upper trough axis moves further east. During the day on Monday, the upper ridge remains stout over the area. This should keep highs in the upper 80s/lower 90s.Some weak forcing and more unstable conditions could produce some additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms near and just west of the AL/GA border in the afternoon. Again, general thunderstorms are expected.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The upper ridge over the Southeastern states will gradually weaken next week as an upper trough slides from the western CONUS up into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by late week. By this time, the upper level flow over the Tennessee Valley looks to become largely zonal. In addition, a subtle shortwave is shown to progress from the ArkLaMiss region into the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front, associated with a parent low slated to swing over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, looks to approach the Tennessee Valley Tuesday into Wednesday with FROPA later on Wednesday. Sensible weather from Tuesday through Friday next week for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee will therefore consist of daily chances of showers and storms, with the greatest chances anticipated on Wednesday.

Model PWATs increase to between 1.5-1.8 inches on Wednesday, which are right around the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) when compared with Sounding Climatology from BMX. Therefore, showers have the potential to be efficient rainfall producers. This trend will be monitored over the coming days for model consistency. Additionally, although sufficient instability is indicated by guidance for thunderstorm development, confidence in any severe weather is currently low due to model bulk shear values below 30 knots. This will also be monitored in case bulk shear values increase, in which case the potential of any strong to severe storms would also increase.

Lastly, a general cooling trend is forecast through Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s on Tuesday decreasing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday (due to FROPA on Wednesday). However, this will be short-lived, as temperatures rebound back into the lower to mid 80s on Friday. Lows will follow a similar pattern, with mid to upper 60s forecast Tuesday night followed by upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at the terminals through the day on Sunday. South/southeasterly winds will decrease to be light and variable tonight, but increase to between 5-10 knots with gusts between 15-20 knots early Sunday afternoon. Cloud cover is also forecast to decrease this evening, with mostly clear skies through Sunday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.