textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1012 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Medium to high chances (50-80%) of showers and storms today. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and gusty outflow winds are the main impacts.

- Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms continue Sunday and Monday. There is a low chance of a few stronger storms on Monday with gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours the main threats.

- Drier and more mild conditions take hold Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 158 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Current temperatures are in the lower 80s for most locations, with highs still on track to warm a bit more into the lower to mid 80s. Showers with a few embedded storms have developed over the past couple of hours, mainly over southern middle Tennessee, far north Alabama, and generally from Winston County through Marshall County. Fortunately, these are moving at a decent pace with lower rain rates. There also has not been much lightning observed with these showers/storms either. It's likely the earlier cloud cover hindered the amount of instability realized for the cells to tap into, which matches earlier thinking. Therefore, these should stay fairly benign. Even so, stay weather aware and when thunder roars, go indoors! Overall, no major changes were needed to the forecast. The shower and storm activity will persist through the remainder of the afternoon into the evening, then decrease in coverage with the loss of daytime heating.

Previous Discussion:

Upper level troughs will persist over the western CONUS and eastern CONUS, with the Southern Plains and Southeastern states in a weak ridging pattern in between these. Therefore, northwest flow will remain aloft over the Tennessee Valley, but a few subtle shortwaves are shown by guidance to move over the region through the day today. Additionally, a stalled surface boundary remains to our south, but another backdoor cold front is slated to progress over the region. This feature is then expected to slow down and stall to our south tonight. Another muggy and unsettled day is therefore in store for the Tennessee Valley. Expect highs in the lower to mid 80s with medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and storms through early this evening.

Model PWAT values range between 1.7-1.8 inches through the day today and this evening, which are greater than the 90th percentile (1.6-1.70 inches) when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Therefore, showers will be efficient rainfall producers, bringing heavy downpours and perhaps localized, nuisance flooding. As for the potential for any strong storms, confidence is very low due to bulk shear values generally around 20 knots or less. Furthermore, with cloudy conditions expected to largely persist through the afternoon, not sure how much instability will be realized (Hi-Res guidance might be a bit overdone). Regardless, lightning and gusty outflow winds will be the main impacts with any storms today and this evening. Stay weather aware today and be prepared for storms if you are working outdoors or have outdoor activities. When thunder roars, go indoors! If you encounter flooded roads when driving, turn around, don't drown!

The aforementioned upper ridge will begin to gradually build over the central CONUS tonight (and into early next week), with the backdoor surface cold front expected to move to our south as well. Therefore, rain chances decrease for the overnight period. Lows will be warm, in the mid to upper 60s and it'll still be muggy, with minimal dew point depressions late tonight into early Sunday. Winds are also expected to be calm. Therefore, low to medium chances of patchy to areas of fog are forecast. What might hinder fog development a bit (especially widespread dense fog) are the mid to upper level clouds forecast late tonight. This will be monitored.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 1012 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

The upper ridge will continue to build over the southern Plains and central CONUS late this weekend into early next week; however, the trough over the northeast looks to push to the south/southwest a bit over the Appalachians Sunday into Monday. A shortwave is shown to move over the Southeast during this time as well. At the surface, the boundary slated to stall to our south (discussed above) will persist, with perhaps another backdoor cold front moving into the region Monday/Monday night. Moisture will also remain elevated. Therefore, expect continued daily chances of showers and storms (40-60%) Sunday through Monday.

We are watching a low-end potential for a few stronger storms on Monday, since guidance indicates that bulk shear values increase by this time. SPC has a portion of southern middle Tennessee outlooked in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather. Overall, guidance shows that SRH is minimal and model hodographs do not look supportive of a tornado threat. Therefore, gusty winds and perhaps small hail are the main threats with any strong to severe storm that may develop. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also be impacts. Stay weather aware and have multiple ways of receiving warnings should any be issued!

Lastly, for temperatures, highs are forecast to reach the upper 70s to mid 80s on Sunday but be a touch warmer on Monday. Lows will remain in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday Night through Friday) Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A much awaited pattern change continues to look likely in the long term period, as an upper low slides east off the Atlantic Coast and high pressure expands west over the OH Valley into the Southeast. Northerly flow aloft combined with a drier continental airmass source will keep temperatures on the cooler side of seasonal norms, topping out in the lower 80s each day with lows in the low to mid 60s. Subsidence will keep skies much clearer than we saw this week, with PoPs below 15-20% each day. There will be little change in the overall pattern through the end of the work week, but it does look like moisture will start to increase as low level wind fields veer toward the south as upper ridging begins to build over the Gulf.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Conditions have improved somewhat this afternoon, but there are still instances of at least MVFR in some spots over northern Alabama. Expecting generally VFR conditions to persist except in showers and storms where MVFR conditions are anticipated. Medium to high chances (50-80%) of showers and storms will be the theme through this afternoon and into this evening, but chances will greatly decrease by mid-evening. Little to no rain is then expected overnight; however, there is a low to medium chance of patchy to areas of fog. This is reflected in lowered VIS at both TAF sites late tonight through early Sunday morning. Lower CIGs down to IFR are plausible during this time. As for winds, expect light and variable winds through the day today, with light to calm winds tonight. Southeast winds around 5 knots will then develop by early Sunday afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.