textproduct: Huntsville

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Widespread showers and thunderstorms were in progress from far NE Texas, to across western Tennessee, to NW Ohio. Numerous tornado warnings were present in this area, especially western Kentucky and southern Illinois and Indiana. Shower activity that was impacting areas further to the east has dissipated with a loss of daytime heating and resultant instability. Despite it being early April, almost summer-like warmth was occurring with 10 PM temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Earlier high temperatures were 84 in Huntsville, and 87 Muscle Shoals. The latter was a record high, exceeding the old record of 86 last set in 2012. A strong pressure gradient between a parent low west of the Great Lakes and high pressure to the east was producing breezy to windy conditions. The winds have remained elevated, so am considering if the Wind Advisory will need to be extended.

An otherwise muggy night for early April is expected, with low temperatures cooling from the lower 60s east to near 70 west. A southerly wind of 15-25 mph with gusts to 35 mph will continue until the late night. Disturbances passing through this humid environment may be sufficient to help initiate convection before sunrise Thursday. New model guidance coming in has a big spread on how far the convection to our west will move east in the overnight. The ARW has it moving the furthest east, while the NAM had the most westward positioning. The HRRR, RAP, NSSL were closer to far NW AL, with a hint of isolated cells to the east. If storms do reform, all modes of severe phenomena are possible from the strongest storms.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

An unsettled pattern will continue into Saturday. Mid/upper level blocking over the east Pacific basin and east Atlantic and Europe regions will keep most of the convection to our west. Thursday appears will be the wettest day, as the line of convection moves over our more western areas in the afternoon. Discrete cell development is possible east of the main area of convection. In a more unstable environment thanks to strong daytime heating (with high temperatures into the low/mid 80s) will produce a rather unstable conditions with CAPES ranging from around 1000 J/kg east to over 2500 J/kg west. An at times breezy southerly low level flow will create 100-250 m/s of 0-3km helicity. Thus in line with the Day-2 convective outlook, storms over our more western areas could become severe. Main threats will come from damaging wind gusts and large hail, and a low tornado risk.

The drier trend will continue through early afternoon Saturday. High temperatures to close out the week will rise into the mid 80s. Showers to our west should begin creeping more to the east in the afternoon and later.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1132 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

Higher rain chances should be realized Saturday evening, as the system to our west finally moves more to the east. A cold front with this system should move across the area late Saturday night into Sunday - with a low confidence. The slower timing from the blends was used this go around. Some of the storms before and with the frontal passage could become strong to severe. Will stay with an all modes potential of severe phenomena that could occur. One item of the frontal passage is that much cooler air will filter in. The substantial airmass change will help with overall storm strength. With the airmass change and high rain chances, high temperatures on Sunday will range from the mid/upper 60s west to lower 70s east.

Much colder air will filter in Sunday nigh with lows tumbling into the mid 40s. Highs to start the new work week, Monday will only rise to around 60. The cold change will continue Mon night with lows into mid to upper 30s (close to frosting!). Highs on Tuesday will only rise into the upper 50s. A bit colder Tue night with lows in the low/mid 30s. This night appears to be the coldest one, with a good chance for areawide frost and possible freezing conditions. A warming trend is expected for the mid week, with highs rising into the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

VFR flight weather conditions will transition to MVFR as ceilings of 020-025agl develop and move in by 10Z. The ceilings should exit or lift to ~050agl by 17Z (VFR). There is a low chance of +TSRA in far northwest AL which could get close to or affect KMSL between 08-12Z, but have left out due to low confidence at this time. South winds will continue to gust at 20-30kt through the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for ALZ001>010- 016.

TN...Wind Advisory until 1 AM CDT early this morning for TNZ076-096- 097.