textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

Northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots this morning will gradually subside over the course of the day as a northern stream trough (over OT) phases with a smaller disturbance to its south to form a partially cutoff low over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, a large ridge of high pressure (centered over southern MB and adjacent portions of OT) will shift slowly eastward as this occurs, with its influence expected to extend as far southeastward as the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. A weak cold front (marking the leading edge of the drier/continental airmass) will continue to advance southward across the local CWFA early this morning, and although it would not be out of the realm of possibility to see a light shower develop near the wind shift axis, most locations will remain dry. Redevelopment of thunderstorms this afternoon (in the vicinity of the boundary layer moisture gradient) should occur across central/southern portions of the Gulf Coast states, and for this reason we will retain a dry and mostly sunny forecast for our region. After morning lows in the 65-70F range, afternoon highs will be a few degrees cooler (85-90F), which will feel even more pleasant as dewpoints mix down into the u50s-l60s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley.

Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 633 AM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

There have been no major changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as mid-level clouds should rapidly disperse after 12Z, with only a few fair-weather Cu and few Ci expected during the day. The coverage of high-lvl clouds in NW flow aloft will begin to increase this evening, perhaps becoming overcast and capable of generating some virga or lgt SHRA (especially across northwest AL) by the end of the TAF period. Sfc winds will range from 340-020 at 5-10 kts today, but should veer to NE and diminish after sunset this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.