textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1013 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

- Warm temperatures will continue through today, followed by a minor cooling trend for the second half of the work week.

- High (80-90%) chances for showers and a few thunderstorms from late Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

- Low chances for rain return Thursday night, with another storm system expected to bring high chances for showers and some thunderstorms Saturday night and Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 246 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

At the start of today, high pressure will remain locked in across the Southeast underneath an upper level ridge. As a result, another dry and mild day is in store. Southerly to southwesterly flow this afternoon will help warm temperatures up again into the upper 60s to lower 70s. The ridge shifts east today ahead of an advancing cold front to our northwest brining in an increase in cloud cover. This should keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but it should feel a bit more humid as moisture return ahead of the front raises dewpoints into the mid 50s. While the precip should hold off until this evening, gusty winds are the main impact for today. As an 850 mb jet of 30 kts pushes northeast across the TN Valley, sfc winds are forecast to increase 15 to 20 mph as the stronger winds mix down this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 1013 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

A cold front will continue to shift southeastward into the TN Valley this evening, with a minor uptick in both the coverage and intensity of showers (and a few thunderstorms) anticipated as the front begins to intercept a plume of modified Gulf moisture (characterized by dewpoints in the mid 50s). Due to the anticipated orientation of the front, precipitation chances will begin to increase across northwest AL/southern Middle TN by 4-6Z, but will be highest (80-90%) region-wide in the 6-12Z timeframe as the frontal wind shift drops southward. With the remnant mid- level trough (related to a cutoff upper low to our southwest) expected to be positioned across the northwest Gulf Coast around 12Z Wednesday, low-level convergence in the vicinity of the cold front will provide the greatest source of lift for precipitation. However, a short period of postfrontal rain will be possible before precipitation ends quickly from NW-to-SE in the 12-16Z timeframe on Wednesday. It still appears as if CAPE in the 100-300 J/kg range will significantly limit updraft height, reducing the risk for organized storms in an otherwise favorable environment (characterized by 40-50 knot WNW flow aloft). However, with westerly winds at the 850-mb level predicted to increase to 30-40 knots ahead of the front, a few stronger wind gusts could occur with any heavier showers or storms.

In the wake of the front, a cooler/drier mixture of Canadian and North Pacific air will be advected into the region as NNE winds strengthen Wednesday afternoon. Highs will fall back into the u50s-l60s on both Wednesday and Thursday, with lows dropping into the l-m 30s on Wednesday night as the center of a surface high translated eastward through the OH Valley/Lower Great Lakes, resulting in a light northeast flow. Overcast mid-level clouds and perhaps a few patches of light rain may return to the region from late Thursday evening through early Friday morning as elevated warm advection begins to increase along the interface of the retreating high (to our northeast) and a developing lee cyclone (across the southern Plains), but with temps in the u30s-l40s and a lingering wedge of dry air in the boundary layer, only light rain is expected at this point.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1013 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The main feature to watch in the long term will be an upper level trough and subsequent low pressure system shifting eastward into the Tennessee Valley area over the weekend. Ensembles continue to show uncertainty in both the depth and placement of the trough. Therefore, confidence remains low in any significant impacts. However, heightened chances of showers (50-80%) remain likely both Saturday and Sunday. Experimental SPoRT river forecasts have also begun to hint towards increasing water levels as a result of rainfall by Sunday. We will continue to monitor this system through the week. High temperatures this weekend should remain in the 60s in most locations with overnight lows dropping into the 40s-50s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

Clear skies and a calm-lgt SSW wind will exist at the HSV/MSL terminals early in the period, but due to recent obs we will retain a tempo group for minor vsby reductions in lingering smoke/haze at HSV. Although patchy BR/FG may develop in portions of the region, some lower stratocu is also likely to develop with an increase in the low-level jet, and with dewpoint depressions remaining large at the two airports, we will not include this weather element in the current forecast. High-lvl cloud layers will become overcast after 12Z (with bases descending throughout the day) as a weakening upper-lvl disturbance lifts east- northeastward over the southern Plains. Although some virga and perhaps a few sprinkles of rain may occur tomorrow aftn, chances for showers (and perhaps a few TSRA) will increase more notably btwn 4-6Z as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest. Sfc winds will veer to SW and increase to 8G16 kts after sunrise, before diminishing once again around 0Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.