textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 918 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Medium to high rain chances will continue through this afternoon before tapering off this evening. No severe weather or flash flooding is forecast. - Dry conditions and a gradual warming trend are forecast through mid-week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

The surface low has entered the state of Alabama and light rain has re-entered northwest Alabama. Some very light returns are also ongoing over northwest Alabama as well. Overall, there is little change to the forecast from earlier this morning. Rain chances will continue through the afternoon as the low progresses eastward. Chances of thunder are very low to none. Breezy conditions will also redevelop later this afternoon into this evening behind the low as it moves east. This trend can be seen from surface observations to our northwest over eastern Mississippi and western Tennessee that show gusts between 15-25 mph. Temperatures at present are in the upper 50s to lower 60s, with a few more hours for temperatures to increase a little more into the lower to mid 60s along and south of the Tennessee River.

Rain chances will then dwindle this evening. With moisture remaining elevated, lows are still forecast to only drop into the lower 40s. The main change from our earlier forecast, and the big question for tonight, will be how conducive the environment will be for fog development. This will depend on how quickly winds subside and clouds begin to break up later tonight. For now, there are low to medium chances of patchy fog very late tonight into early Monday morning across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Not anticipating much in the way of dense fog, but we will continue to monitor the fog potential and trends through the evening and overnight hours.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 918 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Surface high pressure will largely maintain its hold over the region early this week, along with a building upper ridge. Although, the high pressure will start to shift eastward a bit on Tuesday as a low pressure system strengthens over Montana, Wyoming, and into the northern CONUS. No rain is forecast for norther Alabama and southern middle Tennessee through Tuesday, but clear skies on Monday will give way to increasing cloud cover by Tuesday as return flow increases moisture into the region. Expect a warming trend through the short term, with lows in the 40s Monday night and highs warming into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees on Tuesday. Breezy conditions also look to return by late Tuesday afternoon into the overnight period, as the pressure gradient tightens with the previously mentioned low pressure system to the north progressing towards the Great Lakes.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 918 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A nearly zonal flow should be in place across the greater CONUS, albeit with slight troughing west and ridging east late Tuesday. An upper level disturbance involved with a troughing feature off of the southern California coast will move inland during the course of the mid and latter week. This disturbance and high altitude subtropical moisture from the Pacific basin will bring an increase in clouds across the Tennessee Valley into the late week.

In response to a deep southerly flow and warming trend, it should not be as chilly Tuesday night with lows in the low/mid 50s. Despite more clouds than sun, higher height values and a southerly flow will help high temperatures for the mid week rise into lower 70s. Slightly milder conditions are expected Thursday, with highs rising into the low/mid 70s, and lows in the mid/upper 50s Wednesday and Thursday nights.

The moisture advection from the Pacific, as well as from the Gulf of America will bring lower end shower chances to the area beginning Wednesday night. Rain chances should remain below 30 percent through Thursday across the area. A stronger system taking shape over the Southern Plains and Rockies, along with a stronger inflow of moisture will bring higher rain chances Thursday night into Friday night. A cold front should begin moving across the area Friday night into early Saturday. Far as deterministic models show, the ECMWF was the fastest showing that feature, with the GFS/Canadian about 6-hours slower. This front could bring some thunder mixed in with more widespread showers before daybreak Saturday. Looks like the winter season is not quite done with, with highs on Saturday only in the lower 60s and lows Saturday night around 40. Taking a peek ahead, it looks even colder for early next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Low ceilings and continued rain chances will persist through this afternoon. As has been the trend this morning, CIGs will likely bounce around between MVFR and IFR at times, but expecting IFR CIGs to prevail at the TAF sites through the afternoon. Rain chances will then dwindle by this evening, with no rain overnight through Monday morning. Additionally, with a surface low progressing over the state today into tonight, southeasterly winds this afternoon will eventually shift to be northerly this evening. Sustained winds between 5-10 knots with gusts to between 15-18 knots are also forecast during this time. Winds will eventually decrease and CIGs will also improve gradually overnight, with VFR conditions returning early Monday morning. Skies will further clear through the day on Monday, along with winds becoming light and northeasterly by late morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.