textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026 - A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL this evening. Brief strong wind gusts and frequent lightning will be the primary hazards.

- There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

A cluster of strong to severe thunderstorms was dropping southeast through southwest TN into northern MS and will clip northwest AL between now and 10 pm. A few of the CAMS suggest a further east progression as well. Since the airmass is a bit drier and less unstable over the TN Valley with dew points in the 60s to lower 70s, a weakening trend may develop with time. The primary hazard from these thunderstorms will be gusty winds and frequent lightning. Late tonight, a clear to partly cloud sky is expected with lows in the mid 60s northeast to around 70 southwest.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Sunday will be a sunny and less humid day as high pressure expands into the OH and TN valleys from the upper Midwest. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with dew points falling into the lower to middle 60s. Northwesterly flow at 5h will bring a series of weak disturbances southeast Sunday night into Tuesday. A pronounced low to mid level theta-E gradient and convergence zone will lie from MO through northeast AR into northern MS into western AL during this time, keeping our are susceptible to at least low chances of showers or thunderstorms. These would be higher based/elevated in nature. The chances will be greatest (30-50%) on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to around 90 with lows mainly in the 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 641 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

We will continue to be in a northwest flow regime aloft for most of the long term period. However, by Saturday, this pattern begins to break down as the upper trough to the north/northeast flattens and the upper ridge over the Desert Southwest flattens as well and pushes farther east into the ArkLaTex. A lingering surface boundary will also persist over the Southeast into Thursday before what looks like a reinforcing cold front swings through. By late week and into the first part of next weekend high pressure builds over the Appalachians and Ohio Valley.

Overall, highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s will be common through the period. In addition, the above pattern will lead to daily chances of showers and storms from Tuesday through Thursday at least. Expecting lower chances come Friday/Saturday. The best chances look to be during the afternoon and evening hours, during peak heating when storms can take advantage of the greater thermodynamics in place. Ample instability in addition to bulk shear between 20-30 knots, 0-3km lapse rates between 7-8 deg C/km, along with DCAPE around or above 1000 J/kg, will warrant us keeping an eye on the forecast for at least strong to severe downburst potential Wednesday and Thursday. As has been the case recently, the main hazards are likely to be damaging winds, frequent lightning, and perhaps some hail (but freezing levels may be too high). As for heavy rain and flooding concerns, this will need to be monitored as well, since most PWATS are generally between 1.7-2.0 inches Tuesday through Thursday. These values are between the 75th and 90th percentiles when compared to BMX Sounding Climatology, which means that showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Stay weather aware especially if you work outside or have outdoor activities and check back for forecast updates!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 508 PM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

There is a low chance of TSRA this evening, mainly in northwest AL including KMSL. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Once these TSRA move southeast of the area by 06Z, VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.