textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Mainly low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms today and Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Hot and humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

The fog has been stubborn to erode this morning but visibilities finally improved after 8am.

Today, we will have another low to medium chance (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms across the TN Valley.

Today, an upper low in the southern OH Valley will become an open wave today and there is a stationary boundary to our north as well. This boundary will scoot southward as the wave swings through today. Combined with lingering boundaries out there, we'll see low chances (20-60%) across the TN Valley, mainly this afternoon and early evening. Highest coverage seems to be north of the TN River, closer to that boundary. Instability will be just over 1,000 J/kg, with weak bulk shear and high PWATS just under 2", leaving our main hazards as gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Daytime highs will reach the upper 80s to 90 degrees with heat index values in the upper 90s.

Tonight, with an abundance of moisture in place and light/variable winds, patchy fog is possible once again. Lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

On Thursday, that open wave will weaken and continue to lift northeastward but the stationary boundary that scooted southward may stall over the TN Valley. This will bring low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. These storms can create gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. However, would not rule out a downburst with the PWATS ~1.6", DCAPE ~1300 J/Kg, ML CAPE 1600-1900 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates. Highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s with heat index values around 100 degrees.

SPC has placed us in a Marginal outlook (risk level 1/5) on Friday. A weak trough will be along the eastern seaboard with a few weak disturbances sliding through ahead of a shortwave up in the Midwest. Friday afternoon and evening forecast soundings look even better for an opportunity to see downbursts. Instability will increase towards 3,000 J/kg, PWATS ~1.8, ThetaE difference ~30C and pretty steep low level lapse rates. Local strong to damaging winds, heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the primary hazards. Looking into Saturday, forecast soundings suggest another potential afternoon and evening with storms that could produce downbursts. The storms may be the main story, however do not forget about the heat. Heat index values Friday and Saturday will be in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

Stay weather aware Thursday through Saturday and ensure you stay safe indoors, outdoors, and on the go.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

The long term period will be characterized by mostly zonal flow aloft as we remain in a moist tropical airmass that will keep medium chances for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast daily. The good news is that temperatures will be near or just below seasonal norms so extreme heat does not look to be much of a threat at this point. With that said, humidity will remain high and will bring afternoon heat indices near or just above the 100 degree mark which will pose a risk for heat related illness for those especially sensitive to the heat or those without proper cooling or hydration.

Although the risk for organized severe weather appears low at this time, afternoon CAPE values near or above 2000 J/kg with DCAPE values over 1000 J/kg will support the risk for damaging microbursts especially over the weekend. PWAT values between 1.8-2" may also result in heavy downpours that may lead to localized flooding. As mentioned in the previous long term discussion, an upper trough is progged to dig south over the Atlantic Coast on Monday and will bring a cold front through the area. This should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity if forecast trends continue.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1231 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Daytime heating of a moist airmass has in part lead to the development of isolated showers across the area. Cell movement was east around 10kt. Additional shower and thunderstorm formation should occur across the Tenn Valley this afternoon into the evening. Given move activity was in progress more to the west, have higher confidence of convection impacting KMSL, so have a TEMPO (~50% PoPs) in for afternoon storms. Lesser rain chances (~30%) will be realized at KHSV so maintained PROB30 concerning convection. Although in the TAFs have CIG/VSBY reductions to MVFR, brief lower values cannot be ruled out due to the heavier showers and/or stronger storms, along with erratic gusty winds. Shower activity should end this evening. Fog development also cannot be ruled out in the late night, and would be more prevalent in/near areas that received wetting rainfall.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.