textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Medium chances (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. No severe storms expected.

- Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, with a low risk of a few strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats.

- Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A surge of better moisture is continuing to make its way north and can be seen by increasing cloud cover over portions of NW AL this morning. Southerly flow continues to keep a warm airmass in place as high pressure sits over the southwest Atlantic and a broad upper ridge has allowed a warm sectored airmass to encompass almost the entire eastern CONUS. With little in the way of stronger synoptic support today, we will maintain a low risk (25-35%) for thunderstorms this afternoon but with limited shear and thermodynamic support these storms should remain below severe limits. Afternoon highs will top out in the upper 70s to lower 80s with occasionally breezy southerly flow. Overnight lows will be warm, only falling to the low/mid 60s with partly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main focus in the short term period will be the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. An upper wave will pivot across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region and a cold front will push through the Midwest on Saturday. While not particularly strong, there will be a favorable overlap of shear and instability tomorrow afternoon as a line of thunderstorms push through the area from the northwest. SPC has added a 2% risk area for tornadoes west of I-65 where the most favorable overlap of instability and low level helicity will exist. Elsewhere, damaging winds and hail will be the primary risks, especially along any bowing segments of the line/cluster and stronger/isolated updrafts embedded within. These storms should move into NW AL around noon and exit the area to the east by 7-8pm. While storm total rain amounts have trended slightly downward and the risk of flash flooding is low, PWAT values between 1.3-1.6" will be supportive of heavier downpours that could cause ponding of water on area roadways.

Temperatures will cool slightly Saturday night into Sunday as the front stalls near the region. This will keep medium to high chances for rain and storms in the forecast through Sunday as the front interacts with the area, though we will have less instability to work with in the wake of the convective activity on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Most guidance weakens the forcing along the front significantly Sunday night as it pushes southwards into central or southern Alabama. Some light scattered showers or isolated elevated thunderstorms could continue into early Monday morning. Abundant cloud cover and lingering southwesterly boundary layer flow will keep overnight lows warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models develop a stronger surface low over the northern Great Plains area into south central Canada Sunday night with a surface front extending southwest into Kansas and Oklahoma. This front has a hard time pushing very far southeast into the surface high over the southeastern CONUS on Monday as the surface low moves northeast into east central Canada. However, increasing southwesterly and southerly flow ahead of it gradually pull the weak front over southern Alabama northward. This will likely keep most of the area cloudy and contending with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity through Tuesday night. The abundant cloud cover on Monday will likely keep highs in the mid to upper 70s, below record highs.

The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely occur Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning before becoming more scattered. Instability looks fairly impressive (1000 to 2000 J/KG) on Monday afternoon. However, 0-6 km shear looks weak, but may be just enough for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Luckily, wet-bulb zero heights are above 10,000 and helicity is very weak in guidance right not, so the main threats would be frequent lightning and straight line wind damage is any severe storms did occur. However, confidence is low at this time in severe development given weak shear and the lack of helicity in place. This activity should weaken quickly and reduce its coverage quickly after sunset with the loss of instability. Lows will be a bit warmer likely, only dropping into the lower 60s primarily.

Models are disagreement on where the frontal boundary ends up Tuesday into Thursday. Either way, a new surface low develops over northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado by Tuesday afternoon. The surface high over the southeast continues to be an impediment to the surface low and upper level energy moving move to the southeast versus northeast into Wednesday. This should keep low to medium chances of showers or thunderstorms in the area, mainly north of the Tennessee River through then. Warmer temperatures are expected, with some possible breaks in cloud cover at times on Tuesday afternoon. Highs as a result may reach 80 degrees on Tuesday.

Continued warming is expected into Wednesday as the primary surface low moves east northeast as the front stretching from central Texas into the Ohio Valley. Highs with maybe some breaks in cloud cover at times (though primarily mostly cloudy) could hit the lower 80s.

Rain and thunderstorms chances will likely increase sometime later in the afternoon hours on Wednesday into Thursday, as a stronger frontal boundary extending southwest from the surface low exiting the northeast states pushes further southeast into the Tennessee Valley. Stronger forcing and shear looks to setup ahead of this frontal boundary and could spell a more organized severe and heavy rainfall threat.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions are anticipated to prevail for most of the TAF period. By this afternoon, shower and storm chances (20-40%) will return for north Alabama. Southerly winds will also increase to around 10 knots with gusts between 15-20 knots this afternoon. Expect brief lowering of CIGs and VIS in the heavier showers as well. Rain chances then dwindle this evening, with no rain forecast overnight. Winds will also decrease to around 5 knots this evening; however, this will be short-lived as they'll begin to increase once again later tonight into early Saturday morning. Low CIGs, down to MVFR, are also anticipated by around 10Z tonight as clouds increase and rain chances approach the local area.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.