textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop today into the evening, with localized flash flooding and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Heat index values of 95 to 103 degree range today.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern during this timeframe.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A dry and clear night is ahead for the Tennessee Valley as current temps range from the upper 70s to lower 80s as of 9pm. Will feel little in the way of relief from the heat overnight, as a humid tropical airmass resides over the Southeast. Dewpoint depressions should be high enough to prevent widespread fog development overnight, but would not rule out some patches of fog in and near river valleys and other sheltered locations.

Upper troughing will dig across the Great Lakes region on Friday and will push a cold front southward into the lower OH River Valley and eventually the TN Valley. Ahead of this, a very humid and unstable airmass will exist with model soundings showing steep low level lapse rates, dry air at the sfc and the mid levels, and DCAPE up to 1200 J/kg. As the front moves near the area, it will be the forcing mechanism to keep storms going into this environment with the threat for microbursts capable of producing strong to damaging winds. Given the steep lapse rates and CAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg, some hail could accompany stronger updrafts. WPC has maintained a marginal risk for flash flooding as PWATs will be around 1.8-1.9" with relatively weak shear profiles. On top of all of this, afternoon heat indices could rise as high as 103 degrees. Those with outdoor plans especially in the afternoon and early evening will need to monitor these weather threats and have a plan to seek shelter indoors quickly if a storm moves near. Be sure to stay hydrated and never leave people or pets unattended in hot vehicles!

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Active weather will continue through the weekend as upper flow becomes more zonal on Saturday but a series of disturbances are progged to bring several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall to the area. The aforementioned front is forecast to stall near the TN Valley and will continue to provide low level convergence while much of north AL and southern middle TN remains in a moisture rich airmass. This will keep medium to high chances for rain and storms in place through the weekend with the best chances during peak diurnal heating hours. While organized severe weather is not expected, gusty winds could accompany stronger storms as well as the continued risk for flash flooding. Given PWATs in the 2-2.2" range, any storms or showers that form will be capable of producing torrential downpours similar to what we saw late last weekend. Given all the recent rainfall and lingering soggy ground, it will not take long for the rain that falls to become runoff and start to cause rises in creeks and streams. Please remain weather aware through the weekend and be mindful of the flooding threat especially if you are traveling.

Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday with afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows in the lower 70s will provide little relief from the heat.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The primary concern for early to mid next week will be a continued risk of flash flooding due to antecedent rainfall and subsequent saturated soils. Multiple days of rainfall are forecast as a series of shortwaves traverse eastward over the TN Valley. Models continue to indicate there will be plenty of moisture to work with over the area as southerly flow will bring PWATs around 1.8-2.2", which is above the 90th percentile per BMX climatology. Therefore, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers. There continues to be model disagreement in the long term period, which greatly influences how widespread rainfall is as well as if there's a risk for stronger storms. Currently, instability continues to look unimpressive with relatively weak shear and poor lapse rates. However, depending on frontal placement/timing, this could easily change over the weekend. For now, have continued with blended guidance and urge everyone with outdoor interests to check back in for forecast updates.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A complex of SHRA and TSRA will approach northwest AL and southern middle TN by 14-15Z. There is a low to medium chance the TSRA hold together or reintensify from 14-20Z as they track southeast through southern middle TN and north AL. There is a medium to high chance of redevelopment of additional TSRA from 19Z-24Z. In both cases, gusty winds and +RA with lowered visibility of MVFR or IFR are expected. A return to VFR conditions is expected after TSRA dissipate or move southeast by 02Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.