textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 409 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

- An organized cluster of thunderstorms is expected to spread southeastward into the region this afternoon, bringing locally damaging winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Impacts will likely be greatest across the western half of the region.

- Medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue from tonight through Thursday night, but should become focused across the southeastern counties on Friday. Brief gusty winds, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall will be the main impacts.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 409 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

Our forecast area remains under the influence of surface high pressure (centered across the northern Mid-Atlantic states) this morning, with light easterly-calm winds and dewpoints ranging from the m60s/NE to u60s/SW. However, a low-level confluence axis and boundary layer moisture gradient (representing the interface of the ridge to our northeast and a weak area of low pressure across the Red River Valley) is currently positioned to our southwest and may serve as an initiation mechanism for scattered thunderstorms prior to 12Z across southwestern TN/northern MS. At this point, we will retain a dry forecast through the early morning hours, but strengthening veering profiles in the surface-8 kft layer will foster an increasingly widespread coverage of dense altostratus clouds (particularly across the west). Morning lows appear on track to reach the 65-70F range.

Later this morning, clusters of thunderstorms will continue to develop along the length of the previously mentioned confluence axis (from east-central MO south-southeastward into northern MS) as it begins to shift slowly northeastward. Convective coverage and intensity will both be aided by diurnal warming and a weak mid-level vort max (which is predicted to track southeastward from eastern KS into northern AL by 0Z in prevailing NW flow aloft of 10-20 knots). With an enhancement in mid-level lift and flow provided by this disturbance, upscale growth into 1-2 MCSs may occur with time, and it appears as if the easternmost convective system will track southeastward into our CWFA this afternoon. Although impacts from locally damaging winds (50-60 MPH) may be highest across the west (where MLCAPE should reach 1500-2000 J/kg prior to precipitation), this system should also reach the eastern portion of the forecast area (as it is decaying within a slightly more stable airmass) late this afternoon/early this evening. Afternoon temperatures in rain-cooled areas will be a few degrees cooler compared to yesterday, but highs should still manage to reach the u80s-l90s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Additional weak shortwaves in the northwest flow in mid to upper levels will bring medium chances of showers and thunderstorms beginning early Thursday. These last into the evening hours before diminishing again with loss of heating. A weak cold front will slowly drop southeast on Friday, producing redevelopment of thunderstorms on the front. The greatest chances will be in our southeast counties, but the eventual position of the front Friday will dictate this. Highs Thursday and Friday should be in the upper 80s to around 90 in valleys and middle 80s atop the higher plateau areas.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026

The aforementioned frontal boundary should be to our south by Friday night into early Saturday, allowing mostly dry conditions to take over the area. However, as sfc high pressure resides over the Appalachians and the boundary stalls to our south, continued low chances for shower/thunderstorm development will exist in the eastern zones of our CWA through the weekend. This is low confidence due to model uncertainty in the exact evolution of the frontal boundary as it shifts south of the area, however, trends have continued to stall it before gradually lifting it slightly back northeastward through the latter part of the weekend. Have continued with blended guidance for now. Otherwise, high temperatures are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices up to around 100 degrees as an upper level ridge continues to influence the region from the west. If you have outdoor plans, be sure to seek shade and stay hydrated to avoid heat illness.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Wed Aug 26 2026

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR conds currently exist at both airports. However, thunderstorms have already begun to develop to our northwest and this activity will continue to evolve into a southeastward-moving MCS, which will impact the local area this aftn (but should ultimately begin to weaken as it advances further to the south and east). TEMPO groups for TSRA and MVFR vsby/cig reductions have been continued for MSL/17-21Z and HSV/19-23Z, but this may need to be adjusted in further updates. Additionally, lightning and strong wind gusts will accompany this activity, warranting issuance of AWWs. Conditions will improve in the wake of the MCS, with clearing skies and a lgt SSW wind this evening. This will support development of widespread (potentially dense) fog prior to the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.