textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight towards daybreak in locations north of the Tennessee River. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon (40-60%). Flash flooding is possible today.

- Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms (60-80%) are expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Flash flood and some minor river flooding concerns are expected.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area today and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 327 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

The earlier decaying MCS that pushed across portions of western TN dissipated as it entered northern AL. The outflow associated with it has spurred a few showers early this morning as is pushed east across AL. Another weakening MCS can be seen on satellite and radar pushing southeast across western KY and into western TN. While this system is forecast to dissipate before it reaches the local forecast area, the remnant outflow will be a feature to watch for redevelopment of storms this afternoon as the airmass becomes unstable. As temperatures warm up into the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, instability increases to between 1000-1500 J/kg. Shear is weak, but the aformentioned outflow boundary should provide some localized lift. With DCAPE around 1000 J/kg there is a low chance for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds as the cold pool propagates to the south and east later today. The biggest uncertainty is coverage and timing of storms. Early morning CAMs are having a tough time resolving where the outflow is by this afternoon and hence, have been keeping the coverage of storms quite low. Our forecast calls for medium (40-70%) chances for thunderstorms this afternoon as the CAMs often struggle with weakly forced events.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expect activity to become isolated to very widely scattered Friday evening as subsidence behind the trough axis passing to our southeast and the loss of daytime heating work against convective development.

However, an upper low and re-enforcing longwave trough axis shown in most guidance pushes east southeast from northern Missouri into Kentucky on Saturday. This should provide fairly strong forcing ahead of a reconstituted frontal boundary to our north. Shear with this disturbance in much guidance is between 25 and 30 knots. This marginal shear coupled with ample instability (2000 to 3500 J/KG), high PWATS, and steep lapse rates will allow for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds on Saturday. The timeframe with more than one possible round of storms could start as early as 1 PM and last until around 10 PM. Highs should be hard pressed to reach the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover and precipitation expected. Again flash flooding and river flooding are possible.

Most guidance holds the longwave trough axis and upper low in place over eastern Kentucky through Sunday. Some models differ on how far south the upper low and upper level trough axis push. At least one more day on high rain chances in the afternoon and evening look likely into Sunday. This will likely create another round of shower and thunderstorms development (high chances) going. At this time, it looks like the atmospheric column becomes too saturated for severe potential on Sunday. Highs will remain on the cooler side (mid to upper 80s) with the expected cloud cover and precipitation expected. However, flash flooding and river flooding will continue to be a concern.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The first half of the long term will continue our unsettled pattern. As we step into the new work week, a weak surface low looks to be parked over the TN Valley with a stalled front draped through our CWA. Mid level riding to our north will will keep the surface features in place through Wednesday prompting medium to high rain and storm chances each afternoon. While not currently outlooked, the very moist and warm environment will be conducive for our typical summer thunderstorm threat of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Please check back for updates regarding any chances for severe weather or flooding.

One upside will be the relatively mild temperatures that will come with the higher rain chances. Highs look to remain in the low to mid 80s through the first half of the week. By Wednesday evening, mid level high pressure looks to finally sag south, displacing our pesky low and associated rain chances. Conditions look to dry out on Thursday. Lower rain chances of course me warmer temps with high reaching back into the 90s by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR TAF are forecast to continue through the morning and into the first part of the afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today which may impact the terminals with reduce visibility and ceilings. Kept as MVFR for now, but trends will be monitored with upstream storms. Once the sun sets, showers and storms should dissipate bringing a return to VFR.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.