textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms mainly in NW Alabama overnight through around 9 AM on Wednesday. Damaging winds will be the main threat with a low risk of a tornado.

- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The primary risks are damaging winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.

- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rain with a low threat for localized flash flooding Wednesday through Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 223 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mainly virga continues to move east across northern Alabama at this hour. Could see a trace to a few hundreths of an inch make it to the ground as it moves east this afternoon.

Guidance continues to move another upper level disturbance aloft through weak longwave trough axis ESE this evening into Indiana and Illinois. This will produce another round of convection near and southeast of the trough axis. Given how far north this trough axis is, convection will initiate well north of the area.

However, the better forcing doesen't push into the area until after 1 AM in most guidance. Models have trended upward with instability over portions of NW Alabama. Further east, not seeing much instability. Shear will be good and helicity as well ahead of the approaching disturbance. Expect this activity to mainly affect NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee with the heaviest rainfall. Given high PWATS and strong forcing, a good 0.5 to 1.0 inch with some locally higher amounts seem possible in those areas through 7 AM on Wednesday.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Models guidance pushes this disturbance east into Georgia into the early afternoon hours. This should allow for rainfall and thunderstorm activity to drop off. This rainfall pushes east during the morning hours, putting an end to precipitation after 1 PM.

However, an upper level low develop aloft the upper level flow amplifies over SE Colorado, during the afternoon hours and swings southeast providing a mechanism for cyclogenesis to occur. This setups up very deep and strong forcing over the southeast after 3 or 4 PM on Wednesday. Good diffluence aloft is shown and PWATS still climb to around 2 inches. Surface based CAPE recovers in the afternoon to between 500 and 1000 J/KG (maybe a bit more in our southeast counties). Strong shear continues to be shown ahead of the developing front over the area. Thus, there remains a potential of strong to severe thunderstorm development after 3 PM through midnight across northern Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hail. A tornado or two remains possible. This severe threat may end a bit earlier if we lose enough instability between 10 PM and midnight. However, a heavy rainfall threat will develop. Given flash flood guidance, not sure how much flooding we will see, but some is possible (especially if the less amplification of the upper level trough axis occurs). Most guidance pushes the rain southeast of the area by Thursday afternoon. However, lingering cloud cover could occur as the actual upper level trough axis pushes through during the early afternoon hours.

Another shot of pleasantly cooler and drier air is expected behind this frontal boundary. Highs should lower back into the 65 to 70 degree range mainly on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The upper flow quickly transitions back to a zonal pattern into the weekend. A quick moving trough axis races east from Iowa into the Ohio Valley through Friday night. A weakening area of high pressure should keep the moisture and forcing with this system to our northwest.

As we move into the rest of the weekend, a new cold front develops over the Midwest and moves east forwards the Tennessee Valley area. Models diverge whether the stalled front to our south moves quickly northward at the same time. This would help to destabilize our area more and add increased and deep forcing to ahead of the approaching cold front. This could be a period we will need to keep an eye on for stronger storms and a potential flooding risk again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 711 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening, with VFR cigs arnd 8 kft expected to descend to 3-4 kft btwn 4-8Z. To our northwest, clusters of TSRA are predicted to gradually evolve along a cold front from southwestern AR into western TN, with outflow propelling this activity into northern AL after Midnight. Thus, we have included SHRA as the prevailing weather condition from 8-12Z, with a TEMPO for TSRA and low-MVFR vsby/IFR cig during this timeframe. Present indications are that this initial activity will quickly shift eastward and out of the region late tomorrow morning, but with rapid redevelopment of convection occurring in its wake, both along a remnant outflow boundary (likely to be positioned south of the TN River) and along the synoptic cold front (to our northwest). Due to some uncertainty in timing for this second round of convection, we have included PROB30 groups from 20-24Z. AWWs for lightning, strong wind gusts (perhaps as high as 50-55 knots) and hail may be needed at times with storms both early Wed morning and in the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.