textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

- Temperatures remain well above normal this weekend, including near record or record highs.

- A strong cold front will bring showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms Sunday night into early Monday.

- Temperatures will fall below normal behind the cold front early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, northwest flow of 40-50 knots will subside and back to the west tonight as a subtropical ridge migrates southeastward from the central Gulf into the vicinity of the Greater Antilles. In the low-levels, a surface cyclone (associated with a shortwave trough riding along the northern rim of the ridge) will track eastward across the Lower Great Lakes and into western portions of the northern Mid-Atlantic states by late this afternoon. Gusty southwest winds will prevail across the TN Valley for much of the day, within the gradient between the low to our north and a high over the eastern Gulf, but winds should subside close to sunset as the low's trailing cold front stalls from the Ozarks into the OH Valley.

Weak lift and moisture advection in the boundary layer will continue to support low stratus clouds and patches of drizzle throughout the day and into the overnight period, with a few light convective showers possible this afternoon/evening as dewpoints in the u50s-l60s will contribute to weak MLCAPE of 50-100 J/kg. If skies manage to partially clear this evening, development of locally dense ground fog will be possible in a few locations, but the predominant issue from the standpoint of visibility reductions will be the low stratus layer and drizzle (which could result in significant reductions in elevated terrain). Highs today will be u60s-l70s once again (slightly cooler in elevated terrain), with overnight lows in the mid 50s (east) and u50s-l60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1043 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

After a brief period of light winds tonight, low-level flow will back to SSW and begin to strengthen once again on Saturday as surface pressures fall across eastern CO/western KS. This trend will continue on Saturday night and Sunday, as an amplifying northern stream mid-level trough spreads east-southeastward from the northern Rockies into the northern/central Plains, and a developing surface low shifts northeastward from western KS into southern portions of Lake MI. With little fluctuation in the synoptic regime across our region, a few light convective showers will be possible once again during the day on Saturday as a weak 500-mb wave traveling along the northern rim of the ridge interacts with MLCAPE in the 50-100 J/kg range. Low stratus clouds, spotty light drizzle and patchy fog will be the main impacts Saturday night, with a few additional light showers possible Sunday. Highs both Saturday and Sunday will be in the l-m 70s, with overnight lows Saturday night in the u50s-l60s.

Meanwhile, beginning early Sunday afternoon, a thin line of convection is predicted to initiate in the vicinity of the surface low (across northeastern MO) and develop southwestward into the Arklatex throughout the afternoon immediately ahead of an intense arctic cold front. As the surface low undergoes a phase of rapid deepening across the central Great Lakes Sunday night, the cold front and strongly forced but narrow band of convective showers (and a few thunderstorms) will accelerate southeastward, likely entering the northwest portion of our forecast area around 7-8Z and exiting by 10-11Z. With dewpoints in the u50s-l60s expected to remain firmly established across our region, CAPE in the 200-400 J/kg range coupled with a WSW low-level jet of 45-55 knots will likely yield strong-locally damaging wind gusts of 45-55 MPH with the passage of the rapidly moving squall line, along with a brief period of heavy rain and occasional lightning. Although nocturnal timing may result in a gradual weakening trend as this feature crosses our region, the risk for a brief tornado is also apparent within favorably oriented portions of the convective line. Strong cold advection will begin as winds veer to NW in the immediate wake of the front, with a period of cold rain possible as temperatures fall into the l-m 40s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 757 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

By Monday morning, the cold front will be advancing through the area and we are due for a pretty rapid change in airmass and a cold welcome back to winter. Rain will taper off toward the afternoon and if the current forecast holds, temps will likely be too warm by the time the rain ends to result in any wintry mix. We will continue to monitor timing and temperature trends as we go through the weekend, but for now we continue to keep any mention of flurries out of the forecast. Temperatures will top out in the 40s on Monday and plummet down into the upper teens/lower 20s by Tuesday morning. Wind chills will drop to the low teens to perhaps single digits in some locations, especially in the higher terrain where winds will be a little higher. Breezy northwest flow will continue through Tuesday morning before gradient winds begin to slacken as high pressure nears from the southwest. Highs will only reach the 30s on Tuesday with a dip back to the teens/20s Tuesday night. The remainder of the long term forecast remains uncertain due to model inconsistencies at this range but generally favors dry weather and below normal temperatures.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 541 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Overcast conditions prevailed over the TN Valley, as a large fetch of lower-level moisture has filtered in during the overnight. Variable CIGs existed across the area, ranging from LIFR (cloud bases less than 500ft AGL), to VFR (CIGs above 3000ft AGL). Depending upon how thick the clouds become, a few sprinkles or some drizzle is possible early in the TAF. Daytime heating and subsequent mixing should result in CIGs improving to MVFR in the morning, with VFR conditions this afternoon and evening. Light S-SW winds should increase into the 10-15kt range later this morning and in the afternoon. Winds should become light and variable late in the evening. More late night fog could occur late in the TAF.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.