textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1001 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

- Low (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday afternoon, increasing to medium/high (50-80%) from Saturday-Monday.

- Temperatures remain warm through early next week with near record highs on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, next Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 341 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Only slight changes have been made to the previous forecast. Shower activity has remained in the northern OH Valley and temperatures have resided into the 50s throughout most of our area. Low to mid level cloud cover has filtered in this morning, allowing visibilities to slightly drop in areas of higher elevation. However, this cloud cover will mitigate any widespread fog formation through this morning. High temperatures have been slightly lowered for this afternoon as cloud cover will likely limit us to the mid 70s. Additionally, very low rain chances (5-10%) remain over NW AL during the afternoon into the evening.

Previous Discussion: A nearly zonal mid/upper flow pattern was in place across the CONUS, albeit with a weak upper wave eastward across the Great Basin. Lift induced by this was producing convection from SE Iowa, to across Illinois and Indiana. Over this region, scattered to broken high clouds were moving across the area. A stout southerly flow was bringing warmth and moisture across the area, with a few stations at times reporting clouds a few thousand feet up. Area temperatures as we near 10 PM were in the low/mid 60s, with SE-S wind of 5-15 mph. Earlier, high temperatures ranged from 67 in Fort Payne to 78 at Muscle Shoals, with lower 70s most other spots.

The aformentioned shower activity over the Midwest should remain well to our north. Thus under variable cloudy skies, overnight low temperatures should cool from around 50 east to near 60 west with SE winds of 5-10 mph. A steady southerly flow will make for a warmer early March day for Wednesday, with highs rising into the

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1001 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Surface high pressure off of the east coast will continue bringing a southerly flow across the Tennessee Valley. This flow bringing warmth and a slow return of deep moisture across the area should continue as we go into the late week. This moisture along with unseasonable warmth (high temperatures rising into the 80s), will produce greater instability and bring lower end chances of showers to the area. As is the case in a dry situation before showers commence, the models were showing some uncertainty with timing and placement, but going on a big picture view, our far NW areas could receive some light rain Thursday afternoon, with the bulk of any showers remaining well to our north and west. A frontal boundary sagging towards the region from the NW will being somewhat better rain chances beginning Friday and continuing into the weekend.

Unseasonably warm conditions will be the other feature for the latter half of the week. After a milder night with lows from the lower 50s to around 60 (cooler east), with more clouds than sun, high temperatures on Thursday should rise into the mid 70s to around 80. Even milder Thur night with lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Unseasonable warmth continues Friday with highs rising into the lower 80s. Record warmth may occur at Huntsville on Thursday, and there and Muscle Shoals Friday.

Some record high temperatures for Thursday and Friday

Location Thursday Friday Huntsville 64/1961 81/1910 60/1951 82/1910 Muscle Shoals 65/1961 86/1908 64/1956 82/1910

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1001 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

This weekend will be unseasonably warm with multiple rounds of rainfall and some thunderstorms. The sfc low up in the Great Lakes will continue to slowly pull the associated cold front southeastward on Saturday. Ahead of this front, warm, tropical air will stream into the region setting up for heavy rainfall and with some thunderstorms to occur ahead of the front. POPs will increase throughout the day from west to east on Saturday (70-80%) and despite the convection and cloud cover, breezy southerly winds will push daytime highs into the lower 80s. This could tie or break a record temp. The front will weaken as it heads into the TN Valley Saturday night, but the models are uncertain on exactly where it will stall out. POPs will dip in coverage Saturday night but pick back up on Sunday to high chances (70%) as a disturbance rides across this stalled out front. Highs will be a tad cooler but still above seasonal norms on Sunday, only reaching the low to mid 70s. The unseasonable warmth and the unsettled pattern will keep the chance for showers and a few storms in the forecast into early next week.

Saturday 3/7 Record Highs: HSV - 82 (1956), MSL - 83 (1934) Tuesday 3/10 Record Highs: HSV - 79 (2009), MSL - 82 (1925)

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 439 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

VFR conditions ongoing at both KMSL and KHSV are forecast to continue through the TAF period, remaining just above MVFR through the afternoon as lowered ceilings push into the area.

CLIMATE

Issued at 538 PM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of northern Alabama and adjacent southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation on March 11th and 12th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.