textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 340 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

- Above normal temperatures (capable of tying or breaking records) will continue today.

- A band of heavy showers (along a cold front) will cross the region from this evening through early Monday morning. Strong winds of 45-55 MPH will be possible with this line of showers.

- Temperatures will be sharply colder on Monday/Tuesday, with wind chills dropping into the 5-15F range early Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 340 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

An upper level low over NE Montana is forecast to move to the SE while slowly deepening. It will help induce troughing that will become established over the Lower-48 as we go into the new week. South of this upper system, a surface low now forming over the central Great Plains will head towards the Great Lakes region while deepening. This next storm system will bring a strong cold front across the Tennessee Valley late this evening.

Before then, today will be a last day of unseasonable warmth for a good while. Whether the low clouds remain or break up, expect warm conditions for late December. Even with more clouds than sun, forecast highs later today should rise into the lower 70s. Standing record highs today are 75/1907 in Muscle Shoals and 74/2021 in Huntsville, which could be given a challenge, especially if cloud cover breaks up this afternoon. Showers with the system should not impact the region until this evening.

The system deepening to our west will increase a pressure gradient across the area, resulting in stronger winds as we go into the afternoon and especially tonight. Light southerly winds at daybreak will gradually increase into the 10-15 mph range in the mid/late morning while veering more to a SW direction. A few gusts above 20 mph are possible later today, especially in the higher elevations.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday night) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Latest short range model consensus continues to suggest that a strengthening mid-level trough across the northern Plains will intensify further as it tracks northeastward into the Great lakes on Sunday night, resulting in rapid deepening of the related surface cyclone as it lifts northeastward across MI. As the trailing cold front accelerates southeastward, a thin line of low- topped convective showers on the wind shift axis will enter our CWFA by 3-4Z Monday and should exit the region by 7-8Z (perhaps gradually weakening as it does so). With forecast guidance continuing to trend lower with CAPE (100-150 J/kg at most), we expect little (if any) lightning with this activity. However, with the west-southwesterly low-level jet predicted to steadily rise into the 45-55 knot range tomorrow evening, this thin line of moderate-heavy showers will still be capable of producing brief wind gusts up to 45-55 MPH. Surface gradient winds will veer sharply to northwest and strengthen in the wake of the cold front, allowing a cold/dry arctic airmass to spread quickly into the CWFA by 12Z. Although a brief period of light/postfrontal rain may occur, present indications are that any lingering precipitation in our region will end quickly between 10-12Z (before profiles would support a transition to a wintry mix).

Although northwest flow at the surface will begin to subside Monday afternoon, elevated winds (and occasional strong gusts) will continue through late Tuesday afternoon as the center of the modifying arctic high drops southward across the central Plains. Even with abundant sunshine on Monday, temperatures will only briefly touch the lower 40s before dropping into the lower 20s Tuesday morning (with attendant wind chills in the 5-10F range in elevated terrain and 10-15F range in the valley). Afternoon temperatures on Tuesday will probably not rise out of the 30s, and with competing influences from light winds and an increase in high-level clouds on Tuesday night, we will maintain a forecast of lows in the lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1013 PM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Dry northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley for the duration of the extended period, with a modest warming trend expected to begin on Wednesday as southwesterly flow in the low- levels will exist to the north of a ridge lying across the northern Gulf. Although a reinforcing/dry cold front may drop into the region Thursday night, present indications are that the cold air will remain displaced to our north, with only a minor decrease in dewpoints anticipated at this point. Clouds and chances for rain may begin to increase late in the period (Friday night into Saturday) as a weakening mid-level trough and surface low shift southeastward across the southern Plains and into the Lower MS Valley. However, we will keep POPs in the 30-40% range at this point. Highs will progressively warm from the m-u 40s on Wednesday into the m-u 50s by Saturday, with overnight lows finally rising above freezing (and into the m-u 30s) by Saturday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 525 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Stratus remained across the TN Valley at 12Z TAF start. While CIGs over KMSL/KHSV were VFR (greater than 3kft AGL), lower MVFR and IFR CIGs were occurring nearby. Given this mix, have added a TEMPO group for possible lower CIGs this morning. Model output was in reasonable good agreement showing VFR weather returning towards noon into the early evening. Southerly winds 5-10kt early should veer more to the SW and increase to 10-15kt with some stronger gusts this afternoon. Shower chances return early this evening over our western areas, rapidly advancing eastward as a strong cold front moves across the area. SW winds of 10-20kt and gusty will veer more to the west, then NW after the front passes. Showers should also end drier air filters a few hours after the front passes.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.