textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- A warming trend will take place this week with increasing humidity yielding a Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2/4) in some areas Wednesday through Saturday. - Low to medium chances of thunderstorms will return to the forecast late this week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A cool start to the day earlier this morning with low temperatures bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s in many areas. Temperatures have since risen into the mid to upper 50s primarily. Morning soundings from BMX (especially) and OHX both show drier air that should be tapped into this afternoon and possibly later this morning as well (per BMX sounding). NBM has been handling mixing down of much drier air badly the last few days and it looks like today it will as well. Though Conshort is lower than NBM output, even that model may be too high with lowering dewpoints this afternoon per BMX sounding. Thus, dropped dewpoints into the mid to upper 30s, slightly above HRRR guidance. This will drop RH values to between 15 and 20% in the afternoon hours. With abundant sunshine, highs will climb into the 80 to 85 degree range mostly with some higher elevations remaining in the upper 70s. Winds will remain light.

NBM lows look a bit warm tonight given expected mixing this afternoon. Expect at least a few upper 40s to linger one more night. Otherwise, a nice night with light winds and clear skies.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Based on forecast soundings, NBM looks like it will remain too moist in the afternoon hours on Tuesday. Though surface winds will become more easterly and a tad stronger, very dry air aloft will likely lower afternoon dewpoints significantly. Tomorrow looks a bit warmer too than today, as the upper ridge builds eastward slightly. Highs in the lower to mid 80s look reasonable. With some southerly flow returning late in the evening on Tuesday, expect lows to warm up a bit into the lower to mid 50s primarily.

The upper ridge further intensifies over the area on Wednesday. Sunny skies are still expected and should push highs into the mid to upper 80s to around 90 degrees as a result. A weak surface low over the northern Gulf of America will likely give us some more moist southerly flow. This should mitigate the mixing of drier air aloft and bring a more humid airmass back into northern Alabama.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1025 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The pattern does not change much through Thursday. The main theme during that period is the upper riding strengthens and we get hotter again. Highs climb back into the lower 90s again by Thursday. With weak southerly flow continuing it will remain humid in the afternoon. Heat index values will climb back into the 95 to 100 degree range in warmer locations.

By Thursday night into Friday, a strong longwave trough axis over the desert southwest pushes east into the Midwestern states and weakens. At the same time the center of the upper ridge shift east off the coast of the Carolinas and Florida. Weak convergence between the upper level trough axis and the western edge of the upper high should provide some forcing over the area. This should lead to some increasing cloud cover and possibly some isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity.

However, models differ on how much/strength of forcing and thus resultant precipitation that develops over the southeast on Friday into early portions of the day on Saturday. Given high PWAT values if forcing is stronger, Saturday and Sunday could both be a washout with thunderstorms possible. However, if the drier solution holds, isolated to scattered coverage may be the result on Friday and Saturday with the washout reserved for Sunday primarily. Heat may be a concern again on Saturday if the drier solution pans out. Highs will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s if so with heat index values between 95 and 100 degrees. The rainy solution would end up providing much cooler temperatures for Friday (~lower to mid 80s).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1043 AM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Winds on Tuesday will remain light, but shift and become more easterly during the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.