textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1039 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- Strong to Severe storms move through the area Wednesday between 2-11pm. Damaging winds and a tornado or two are the main threats.

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Sunday.

- Cold weather returns to start next week with near to sub- freezing temperatures expected.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 205 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

No significant changes in the forecast this afternoon. Cloud cover is starting to mix out and has become more scattered allowing for a few peeks of sunshine to filter through. Very warm and humid conditions persist with afternoon temperatures across the area in the low 70s in our east and near 80F in our west. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s are making it feel more like summer than spring this afternoon. Clouds will stick around through the night keeping temperatures are the warmer side with overnight lows only in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

An active day is forecast across the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday. The aformentioned low pressure system across the Southern Plains will eject northeastward towards the Great Lake Region with a cold front draped to its south. A secondary sfc low is progged to develop in central TX and move eastward across LA/MS along the southern portion of the cold front. This will place the the local forecast area in between two stronger forcing mechanisms. That being said, the cold front will still provide enough lift to push a line of thunderstorms from NW to SE across the area. Latest CAMs show good agreement in the timing with the main line entering NW AL by 2-3pm, I-65 corridor between 4-6pm, and NE AL by 8-9pm. The entire line should clear NE AL shortly after 11pm.

As for the severe weather threat, the SPC has placed nearly our entire forecast area within a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5). During the afternoon, SBCAPE peaks between 1000-1500 J/kg as the line of storms enters NW AL. As the line moves further east, instability is forecast to wane with the loss of daytime heating. Vertical shear profiles are supportive of severe storms with deep layer shear around 40 kts and 0-3km shear between 20-25 knots. Hodographs do show some low level curvature as well. Therefore, while the main severe threat is damaging winds, there is potential for tornadoes given the low level shear profile. The greatest confidence in severe storms is along and west of I-65 where the higher instability and shear overlap. One limiting factor to our severe weather threat is the secondary low as it pushes across MS into AL. The severe threat will likely increase near this system and as a result it may cut us off further to the north from the better instability and lift. If this were to occur, the severe threat would decrease for our CWA.

A much cooler airmass advects in behind the cold front with temperatures rapidly falling Wednesday night. Overnight lows by Thursday morning will dip down into the upper 30s in southern middle TN and lower 40s in northern AL. Gusty gradient winds 20-30 mph will linger Wednesday night into the first half of the day Thursday before diminishing by the afternoon. This will result in a chilly day with afternoon highs only reaching the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Light winds and clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the 35 to 40 degree range. Some areas of frost could occur. Though northwest flow will weaken some on Friday, cold air advection will still help to keep highs in the lower to upper 60s.

This flow becomes more zonal Friday night into Saturday, but the Tennessee Valley should remain dry. Boundary layer flow will become more southerly, allowing better moisture advection into the area. This should keep overnight lows a bit warmer, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s primarily. With sunny skies on Saturday, high temperatures should be warmer topping off in the lower to mid 70s again courtesy of the evolving zonal flow aloft.

By Saturday night, another longwave trough digs southeast from the northwestern CONUS. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a developing front over the central Great Lakes region southwest into northeastern Texas. More significant low level moisture and warm air advection sets up over the southeast in response. Low temperatures will continue to warm only dropping into the lower to mid 50s.

Not much cloud cover expected through Sunday morning ahead of this front over northern Alabama. Though cloud cover will increase significantly Sunday afternoon. Despite cloud cover strengthening low level warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front should allow highs to climb back into the 75 to 80 degree range.

Most guidance develops strong forcing ahead of the front, but the deepest forcing may be concentrated over northern Tennessee into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Either way, at least scattered showers and thunderstorm activity ahead of it seems like a good bet further south into northern AL. Shear would be ample for organized thunderstorm development. Ensemble does show 500 J/KG or less of SBCAPE with 200-300 m2/s2 helicity over the area during the late afternoon/very early evening hours. So we may have another low end strong to severe thunderstorm setup with this system. Highs with morning sunshine may climb into the mid to upper 70s despite afternoon cloud cover.

Ensemble guidance is suggesting another shot of colder air pushing back into the area behind this system. Given how far out this system is, this could change at we get closer to that timeframe. Highs may drop back into the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 728 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals this evening, featuring a sct coverage of lower-based Cu (2500-5000 ft) beneath a bkn layer of Cs. Although a few SHRA/TSRA associated with a passing upper-lvl disturbance may clip portions of NW AL (particularly in the 0-3Z timeframe), coverage is uncertain and for this reason we did not include a mention of it in TAFMSL. Forecast soundings suggest that gradual strengthening of the southwesterly low-level jet will support redevelopment of MVFR stratus by 10Z, and although we have covered this in a TEMPO group thru 14Z, there is some concern that the low cloud deck could persist until early afternoon before eroding. After a temporary return to VFR conditions as morning stratus dissipates, focus will shift to a narrow band of showers/t-storms that will develop to our northwest and progress southeastward in conjunction with a sfc trough. Our best guess on timing of impacts from TSRA is currently 20-23Z/MSL and 21-0Z/HSV, although this will likely need to be adjusted in future updates. Sfc winds will remain from the SSW, with speeds of 5-10 kts overnight increasing to 10G18 kts after sunrise tomorrow.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.