textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 846 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail today.

- A low risk of flash flooding exists through Monday night.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into the late week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 256 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continued across parts of the Tennessee Valley. Through the mid afternoon, showers have been more prevalent over our Tennessee counties, as well as portions of northern Alabama north of the Tennessee River. Additional development was occurring over portions NW Alabama and portions of NE Mississippi. Hi-Res model output, especially the HRRR and ARW have been hinting at this potential. Showers and storms that form should continue into the evening, with coverage diminishing as we go into the overnight. With precipitable water amounts near 2", very heavy rainfall rates have been realized. Thus runoff from some of these showers could result in ponding of water and a risk of flash flooding. Storms could also produce strong to severe wind gusts. Frequent lightning has been noted with this convection. Those involved with outdoor activity should seek safe shelter should storms near your location.

Depending upon where wetting rainfall occurs, decreasing clouds and light wind forecast in the overnight could make conditions favorable for the development of fog. Confidence on how much of it will form and if it will become dense is low. Otherwise expect another muggy night was temperatures cool into the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 846 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

A cold front will move southward across the Tennessee Valley during Mon afternoon and evening. The presence of this boundary moving across an already moist and unstable environment will result in more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Forecast precipitable water amounts nearing 2" will support very heavy downpours. Thus there is a low risk of ponding of water, as well as a flash flooding potential. Strong thunderstorms also cannot be ruled out, with gusty outflow winds the main threat. Frequent lightning activity is also a threat. With more clouds and good rain chances, high temperatures will be a tad "cooler," in the upper 80s.

Shower chances should be lower Mon night with a loss of daytime heating, but they likely will not go away entirely with the frontal boundary lurking nearby. Low temperatures Mon night should cool to around 70. With more clouds than sun, similar warmth is expected Tue with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Shower and thunderstorm development should be more on a diurnal trend, with the best rain chances in the afternoon to early evening. There appears that shower activity should end Tue night, with lows around 70.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Not much change in the overall pattern through the second half of next week. Sfc high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary during the extended period. This keeps the mid level ridge centered over the Southeast resulting in a warm and humid summertime pattern. The good news is that the ridge is not forecast to be nearly as strong as this past week, keeping the afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The main weather concern during the long term period is low to medium chances (40-60%) for diurnally driven thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected as shear remains weak. However, with PWAT between 1.8-2 inches locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main concerns. This could lead to flash flooding if slow moving storms train over the same location.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Heating of a moist and unstable airmass, along with many outflow boundaries from on-going and recent convection, will result in scattered to numerous shower/storms this afternoon and evening. Some storms could become severe with outflow wind gusts greater than 50kt. VSBY/CIGs in the TAF are forecast to be reduced to MVFR; however cannot rule out even lower minimums in the heaviest showers/stronger storms. Overall shower coverage should scatter out as we go into the night. Depending upon how much rain falls, patchy fog development is expected before daybreak Mon. At the moment, we're holding on to MVFR VSBY reductions, but will amend should conditions worsen. Any fog that forms should dissipate shortly after daybreak, with VFR conditions returning for latter portion of the TAF.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.