textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

- Low chance of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River on Wednesday.

- Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday across much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, with forecast heat indices between 90-100F.

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of strong to severe storms and a slight risk of excessive rainfall/flooding on Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A few showers are streaming over north Alabama (mainly along and south of the Tennessee River), but these are expected to dwindle over the next few hours. No rain is forecast overnight. With calm winds and not as much cloud cover north of the Tennessee River, there is at least a low chance of patchy fog formation. This is especially true near bodies of water and in sheltered locations and valleys. However, low clouds are expected to build over north Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee late tonight into early Wednesday. How fast this happens will have an effect on how much fog is realized. For now, not anticipating widespread fog, but more of a low stratus deck that will result in lower visibility (especially over the higher terrain of northeast Alabama). Also, expect lows to dip into the lower to mid 60s later tonight into early Wednesday.

Zonal flow will then persist aloft over the Tennessee Valley through Wednesday. At the surface, a remnant boundary looks to continue to meander over the central portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia for at least the next day or so. This will bring low rain chances (10-20%) on Wednesday that will again be concentrated mostly south of the Tennessee River. The main concern for Wednesday will therefore be the warmer conditions. NWS HeatRisk reaches Moderate Level (Level 2 of 4) for much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. For areas along and west of I-65, highs are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to around 90 degrees with heat indices generally between 95-100F. Wet Bulb Globe Temperatures reach the lower to mid 80s across the local area as well. All this to say, it will be a fair bit warmer than we've seen recently. These values do not quite reach Heat Advisory criteria; but, regardless, please remember to practice heat safety if you have outdoor activities or work outside. Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade. Never leave pets or children in vehicles!

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday Night through Friday Night) Issued at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A surface low pressure system will swing over the Great Lakes region Wednesday night, with its associated cold front slated to approach the Tennessee Valley Thursday morning. This front is expected to make its way over north Alabama sometime on Thursday; however, the exact timing is still a bit uncertain. In addition, model guidance suggests that Potential Tropical Cyclone One, currently over the western Gulf, will generally move northeast towards central Mississippi by Thursday. Overall, expect high rain chances (70-90%) Thursday into early Friday morning, with chances decreasing through the day on Friday from northwest to southeast. Highs will generally be in the lower to mid 80s both Thursday and Friday, with lows mainly in the 70s Wednesday and Thursday nights then decreasing into the 60s Friday night with FROPA.

The trajectory of the tropical disturbance, along with its interaction with the aforementioned cold front, will be the big things to keep an eye on over the coming days. This is because the trajectory of the tropical system as well as how fast the cold front moves over the region (and their eventual interaction) will have a large effect on how much rain we see here in north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. If the path of the tropical disturbance is actually more to the south towards and over central Alabama and the timing of the cold front aligns with this, then the higher rainfall amounts will be concentrated to our south. Model probabilities today indicate that there is a low to medium chance (30-40%) of more than an inch of rain for our local area between Thursday evening and Friday evening. This is a significant change from yesterday, which showed a 50-70% chance of rainfall greater than an inch (and 30-40% chance of greater than 2 inches). Stay tuned and check back for updates as the forecast evolves and details become clearer.

Overall, regardless of exact amounts, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers Thursday into Friday since model PWATs range between 1.7 inches to at least 2.0 inches (some spots may see values over 2 inches). These values are generally right around the 90th percentile or greater when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. This lines up with WPC's Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall for all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Thursday into Friday. There is also a low risk of strong to severe storms (mainly damaging winds and a tornado or two) due to adequate thermodynamics in place; however, confidence is very low at this time. The main concern will be heavy rainfall/flooding. Ultimately, please stay weather aware and remember: Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roads!

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On Saturday, the cold front will be well to our south and sfc high pressure will build in from the Midwest and OH Valley. This will give us a much needed break in the rain with only low chances (5-15%) of showers/storms in place, with the higher values south of the TN River. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but not sure if it will dry out enough to get any postponed yard work done. Unfortunately, this drier forecast won't last long. An unsettled pattern will start back up on Father's Day/Sunday and persist into early next week due to rounds of disturbances sliding through and a system swinging across the Midwest into the OH Valley. Look for low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms each day with highs in the 80s and lows around 70 degrees.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through late this evening. Some light showers are progressing over areas along and south of the Tennessee River late this afternoon. Activity is then forecast to wane over the next couple of hours. No rain is forecast overnight; however, we will be monitoring for low CIGs to at least MVFR/IFR late tonight. Lower VIS are anticipated during this time as well. As clouds dissipate through Wednesday morning, VFR conditions are expected to return by late morning/early afternoon. While light/calm winds are forecast tonight, southwesterly winds around 10 knots will develop by the early afternoon along with gusts to 15-20 knots.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.