textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 252 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Very low rain chances return this evening into early Monday, with a pattern change bringing our next chance at showers and storms later this coming week. A low chance (20-30 percent) of showers or thunderstorms may develop on Thursday.

- Mostly dry conditions continue through the early portion of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s most days. Even warmer temperatures are expected towards the middle/end of the week (highs mid 70s to lower 80s).

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 252 PM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Temperatures have warmed to 75 degrees as far north as areas of southern middle Tennessee at this hour. Although the front moving into the area seems to be fairly weak, it might keep highs from reaching the upper 70s in Tennessee. The front currently stretches from just south of Chattanooga, TN through the Huntsville, AL area into just north of Columbus, MS. Areas south of the front could still see temperatures climb into the upper 70s to near 80 degrees before sunset.

Surface analysis and satellite imagery shows the upper level disturbance forecast by models developing over northeast Oklahoma north into eastern Kansas/western Missouri. This feature will move east tonight. Models still confine the strongest and more concentrated forcing well north of the area. Some weaker forcing with much weaker low level moisture convergence does make it into southern middle Tennessee and areas southward. Low (15 to 25%) chances of very light rain were kept from NBM towards daybreak on Monday near and north of the TN/AL border. This may be overdone though. Not sure if we will see any precipitation tonight this far south, but cloud cover should increase significantly and become thicker, especially after 6Z.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1005 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Cloud cover should be more of a hindrance to high temperatures on Monday across much of northern Alabama and northward into Tennessee. Some sunshine may break through during the mid-afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to still be nice, but a bit lower on Monday, climbing into the upper 60s to mid 70s across the area, despite southerly winds. NBM pushes any precipitation north of the area Monday morning. A few models want to linger very light rain chances into the afternoon, but keeping with NBM ensemble guidance.

Monday night into Tuesday guidance is showing wedging (cooler temperatures) advecting into the area from the east. This would setup a good temperature gradient from east to west across northern Alabama. More widespread highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s east of the I-65 corridor would likely be the result, with highs still climbing into the low to mid 70s further west.

This changes Tuesday night into Wednesday, as stronger low level flow from the Gulf coast develops ahead of a stronger surface low moving east into the central Great Lakes region and an attendant cold from extending southwest from it into the southern states. The southern end of this front is not as strong, but low level flow will increase and be from the south out of the Gulf coast area. This should pull warmer air into the area, even into NE Alabama. Highs will likely climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s in most locations with mainly partly cloudy conditions are times.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As the front moves closer to the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday night into the weekend, the surface high over the Atlantic doesn't want to budge much. Despite a good amount of cloud cover over the area, the strength of warm air advection may allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.

There is some question whether showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front will push into NW Alabama on Thursday. For now kept 20 to 40 percent chances of rain and thunderstorms. Current guidance doesn't show much shear ahead of the front and weakens it significantly as it tries to move into NW Alabama. SBCAPE is between 500 and 1000 J/KG. However, helicity is weak as well in most guidance. Thus, mainly expecting run of the mill thunderstorm activity with frequent lightning and heavy downpours if we realize convection.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Expect mainly SCT to BKN high CIGS today, before lowering a bit close to around 6000 feet towards 6Z and continuing until around or just after daybreak. These CIGS should lift to above 10,000 feet during the morning hours. At this time, we believe any -RA will remain north of the terminals. Winds will pick up to between 5 and 10 kts shortly after daybreak on Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwestern and north-central Alabama, and southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 8th through 10th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center has also included far northwestern Alabama, which includes western portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties in a High Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 8th through 9th. There is a 60-80% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.