textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Saturday, due to afternoon heat index values of 105-109F.

- Strong-severe thunderstorms will impact portions of the region once again today (mainly from mid-day into the early evening hours). These will feature a risk for locally damaging downburst winds, small hail, and excessive lightning. Slow storm motions will also lead to a higher risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding (compared to previous days).

- After a slightly lower coverage of precipitation on Saturday, chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms will increase to 40-60% from Sunday-Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 315 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Bottom line up front: Heat wave persists as heat index values reach 105-109 degrees, storms that develop this afternoon/evening could become strong to severe much like the past few days.

The ridge will every so slightly weaken and scoot eastward, centering more over VA/NC/SC today. The heat wave will persist though, as daytime highs reach the mid 90s and heat index values will make it feel more like 105-109 degrees. With this, a Heat Advisory remains in effect until 7pm Saturday.

As for showers and thunderstorms, it will seem like a rinse and repeat of the past two days. We are under a Marginal Outlook (level 1 of 5) from SPC for the chance of storms that develop this afternoon and evening could become strong to severe as the thermodynamic profile will remain unchanged. Some convection could start later on this morning, however the greatest coverage and intensity will occur this afternoon into this evening. The combination of outflow boundaries and a disturbance sliding NW around the periphery of the ridge will result in low/medium chances of 30-60% between roughly 1-8pm but as late as 10pm. The main hazard with thunderstorms will be locally damaging downbursts winds ~55-65 mph, as forecast soundings continue to show MLCAPE of 3-4,500 J/kg, and fairly steep low-level lapse rates. PWATS will still be just shy of 2", 1.6-1.9", and with steering flow weakening down to just 10kts, there will be a risk of heavy rainfall creating local flooding concerns, possibly flash flooding.

Don't forget: NEVER leave pets or people in vehicles, check in on young children/elderly/vulnerable, stay hydrated with water, seek shade and take frequent breaks when outside. You can find more heat safety tips on our social media and local website.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A mid-level subtropical high (initially located across VA/NC) will drift further southeastward off the southeastern Atlantic Coast this weekend as a northern stream trough digs southeastward from the northern Plains into the Great Lakes (and gradually amplifies southwestward into the Mid-MS Valley). This configuration will yield progressively less subsidence aloft and a gradual increase in southwesterly deep-layer flow by Sunday and Sunday night, which will moisten the mid-levels and provide weaker lapse rates/CAPE (and a lower risk for strong-severe downbursts) as we progress from Saturday into Sunday.

A fairly widespread coverage of showers and thunderstorms across the region early Friday evening will dissipate by 2-4Z (similar to previous days), leaving another moist but rain-cooled airmass in the region Saturday morning (featuring lows in the l-m 70s). There are some indications that weak convection may redevelop during the predawn hours across western TN/northern MS as southwesterly flow aloft begins to strengthen, and the coverage of showers and thunderstorms later in the day Saturday may be impacted by early day clouds and outflow. However, it does appear as if chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase beginning Saturday evening within the broad warm sector of a surface low tracking east- northeastward from the MO Valley into northern IL. This activity could persist into late Sunday morning and may once again have an impact on storm coverage later in the afternoon. However, if this does not materialize, then at least a scattered coverage of afternoon/early evening storms can be expected on Sunday as the aforementioned surface low tracks eastward through the Lower Great Lakes. As mentioned previously, progressively lower CAPE will tend to reduce the risk for higher- caliber downburst winds this weekend. However, sufficient instability will exist to support gusty winds and lightning, with PWAT values climbing to ~2" leading to a growing concern for excessive rainfall. Afternoon highs will gradually fall throughout the weekend, but will remain in the l-m 90s through Sunday. However, with heat index predicted to only reach the 100-104F range on Sunday, we will not plan to extend the Heat Advisory at this point.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Global models suggest that a subtropical ridge (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will gradually retrograde into the central Gulf over the course of the long term period, with our CWFA likely to be located beneath the northwestern rim of the ridge for much of next week. This configuration will maintain light deep-layer southwesterly flow, which may strengthen by the end of the period as an initially weak cutoff low across MO/AR begins to eject northeastward into the Upper OH Valley. Although moisture will remain abundant in this regime (PWAT values around 2"), synoptic scale forcing for ascent will be rather weak and primarily as a result of deep-layer warm advection. Thus, we will maintain medium (40-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms each day from Monday-Wednesday, decreasing to 20-40% at night. A slightly drier airmass in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough (to our north) may lead to a lower coverage of showers and storms beginning Thursday. The main storm impacts at this point appear to be gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding. Highs will generally be in the u80s-l90s with lows in the l-m 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals early this morning, with a bkn-ovc coverage of convective debris clouds and lgt NE wind expected to reduce concern for development of BR/FG. TSRA will likely begin to develop once again shortly after 12Z invof several smaller scale boundaries located in the general vicinity of the TN Valley, with additional development occurring across higher terrain to our north/east during the aftn. Outflow from this activity appears as if it will congeal across northern AL tomorrow aftn/evening, warranting PROB30 groups for convective impacts btwn 20-2Z. Overcast mid-level debris clouds will continue thru the end of the period, along with lgt/vrbl winds.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.