textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue this week with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats. - Temperatures will remain just below normal through Friday. Heat index values will then increase into the upper 90s to around 103-105 degrees next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

7 AM soundings from both BMX and OHX show a very saturated atmospheric column in place again today. Looking at observational data, a weak surface low is in place over west central Alabama east of the Columbus, MS area. A bit better convergence seems to be in place on the central and western portion of the surface low. So expecting better coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop in Mississippi and near the AL/MS border towards noon and into the afternoon hours as a result.

A front extends east from this surface low towards the Tennessee River before heading ESE into Georgia. This will likely be another focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms, but coverage may not be as widespread as further west. Cloudy conditions this morning will help to limit destabilization some. However, instability will build during the day. No shear continues to be shown by guidance and with the very saturated atmospheric profile in place, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop will be the main threat. Some flash flooding could occur if heavier showers/storms train over the same area. Given current cloud cover in place and expected coverage of precipitation today, highs will again struggle to reach the 80 to 85 range.

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to dissipate quickly around the early evening hours, as the surface low moves further west into Arkansas and we lose daytime heating. Some patchy dense fog could occur where breaks in cloud cover occur (maybe more so in southern middle Tennessee). However, it is not expected to be very widespread.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

As an upper level low pressure retrogrades back west over the southern Plains, upper high pressure begins to stretch from the Ohio Valley down over the Appalachians and towards the Carolina coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This high pressure will then continue to build over the Southeast through Thursday night. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over the region on Wednesday but dissipate by Thursday when high pressure develops. Ultimately, anticipating the unsettled weather to continue through at least Wednesday, with medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. With upper level high pressure as well as surface high pressure shown by models to build into the Southeast on Thursday, confidence is low if the coverage of showers/storms will be as much (compared to Wednesday), but this will be monitored.

Model PWATs range between 1.8-2.1 inches on Wednesday, but guidance suggests this moisture will extend into Thursday as well. Looking at sounding climatology at BMX, this PWAT range falls right around and exceeds the 90th percentile (~1.98 inches). Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With bulk shear being weak both days along with downburst parameters not being met, not anticipating a severe threat with storms at this time; however, frequent lightning as well as heavy downpours leading to instances of flash flooding will be the main threats. Remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roads!

As for temperatures, expect highs generally in the mid to upper 80s each day with upper 60s to lower 70s at night. With low dew point depressions, we'll also be watching the potential for fog each night where there are breaks in the clouds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through the long term, mid level ridging will push into the Ohio Valley. This will work to displace the pesky surface low, that has prompted our high rain chances, to our SE. While previous forecasts showed drier conditions for the second half of the week, recent models have consistently trended wetter with rain chance of 40-60% remaining each afternoon. This is due to the fact that the approaching mid level high is not bringing in as much dry air as previously forecast. In fact, our environment thermodynamically looks to remain unchanged through the long term. Thus, even with our forcing mechanism (the aforementioned surface low) displaced to our SE, any small boundaries or outflows will be enough to initiate storms each afternoon. The significant moisture in the profile paired with decent instability will maintain heavy rainfall and gusty downburst winds as a threat each day. While widespread severe storms do not look likely at this time, the environment will be capable of a stray stronger storm or two. Make sure to remain weather aware if partaking in outdoor activities.

While our thermodynamics remain unchanged, one thing that the approaching ridge does look to impact is our temperatures. Highs look to warm from high 80s on Thursday to the low 90s by Monday. With dew points remaining in the 70s, this will push our heat indices near triple digits. Ensembles remain pessimistic regarding our chances of hitting Heat Advisory criteria, however it will remain important for those outside to practice proper heat safety through the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 606 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

MVFR ceilings are prevalent across northern AL this morning with a few pockets of IFR. These should continue through the day with chances for showers and thunderstorms increasing by late this morning into the early afternoon. Ceilings should gradually rise back to VFR late this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.