textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

- Dry, warm weather, but lower humidity, is expected through Friday.

- Rain is expected to develop in the area again next weekend, with chances for thunderstorms (20-30%) on Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Late evening analysis shows a sub-tropical jet atop the region while a sfc cold front is moving southward across the area. The sfc front is becoming increasingly non-descript as it moves across the region, but a weakened N-S dew point gradient was noted late this evening in sfc obs. Nevertheless, based on this gradient, and pressure obs, the front appears to be slicing the forecast area nearly in half from SW-NE. Rising pressures recently suggest the front has moved through Huntsville-Decatur-Florence areas, but SE areas remain ahead of the front. A few showers have developed along the frontal boundary in portions of Morgan/Marshall/DeKalb Counties, which may tend to continue as the night progresses. These showers and the front are expected to be near our southern border by daybreak, so low POPs will remain in the forecast for far SE areas thru ~5 AM CDT.

The front will gradually slip farther to our South on Monday while a sfc continental high pressure system will build to our north into the Midwest. Flow will increase from the NE during the morning, and mixing of slightly stronger winds aloft may result in some gusty conditions, although wind gusts may generally be around 20 mph or lower. Cold advection will be relatively mild with this incoming air mass but dew point advection in the early-October air mass will be a bit stronger. Temperatures are still expected to climb into the 80s for most locations, but dew point temperatures are forecast to fall into the 50s for many locations (especially north). This will make for more early fall-like conditions despite the warm daytime temperatures.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

The Short Term portion of the forecast will feature a low- amplitude trough continuing across the eastern CONUS, while the old frontal boundary tends to stall in the Gulf region. While the upr trough will hold sway across the northern tier states and in the Grt Lakes, a broad sub-tropical ridge will tend to maintain a presence off the East Coast. This will allow for a mix of air masses across our area, both with a maritime and continental influence. This will result in lower dew point temperatures than what we have experience in recent days, but warm daytime temperatures will still be present. Dew point temps will tend to be upper 50s to lower 60s through the period, while daytime temps will still manage to rise well into the 80s both Tue/Wed. Being largely under the influence of high pressure, dry weather is anticipated for the period.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Dry conditions with above normal warmth for early October continues Thursday. Surface high pressure situated from the central Great Plains to off of the Mid Atlantic coast should bring an easterly flow across the Deep South. Under mostly sunny skies, warm temperatures will prevail with highs rising into the mid/upper 80s. This warmth will result in low afternoon relative humidities reduced into the mid 20s percent across much of the Tennessee Valley west of I-65. A forecast of light winds should help temper elevated outdoor fire spread risks. Similar warmth is forecast Fri with highs again climbing into the mid/upper 80s, with similar reduced mid afternoon relative humidities. Low temperatures both Thu/Fri night should cool into the 50s.

A forecast for the upcoming weekend is one of low confidence regarding rain chances. The models generally show moisture to our south moving further northward. Some of the models, especially the 12Z Canadian and 18Z GFS hint at a potential tropical system moving from the western Gulf of America, across the Deep South (including this region) Sat into Sun. The 12Z ECMWF kept it's tropical entity more over the western Gulf, with lesser moisture impacting this region. Many things could occur with the development of this system as we go through the week; something that'll closely be monitored.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A cold front is progressing southward across the area this evening, with the precipitation shield now well south of the KHSV and KMSL terminals. Sfc obs indicate the front likely slicing East-West across northern AL, close to the terminals. A brief light shower could occur, but would be falling under gradually lifting cloud bases. In fact, obs would suggest bases are above ~12kft mostly north of the state line so some virga could occur. Otherwise, clouds will gradually lift at both sites overnight with increasing N-NE winds expected mainly after ~08-09Z. Gustiness could begin to develop with deeper mixing after ~15Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.