textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 939 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast today, with a risk of strong to severe outflow wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall/flooding.

- Dry conditions should return Monday night into Tuesday night to the area, except for locations near and south of the Tennessee River, where low chances of showers and thunderstorms continue.

- More unsettled weather returns for the mid and latter half of the week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Repeat episodes of showers and high atmospheric moisture content could lead to locally heavy rainfall as we approach the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Currently have a few showers sliding eastward across the TN Valley at this hour, otherwise starting to see some blue skies out the window. Skies becoming partly cloudy will allow for some sunshine to warm us up quickly today with highs reaching the upper 80s. We will continue to have low to medium chances (20-50%) through lunchtime as storms fire off diurnal heating and an outflow boundary from the decaying MCS off to our west. Main hazards will be gusty winds, heavy rainfall and lightning, however a few can become strong as environmental ingredients start to improve for later this afternoon.

This afternoon, we will be focusing on a cold front pushing southeastward into the TN Valley as a trough swings through the Midwest and OH Valley. This will develop storms that could be strong to severe. Right now, high res models are suggesting the front and the associated thunderstorms will reach NW AL about 2pm, north central AL/S. Mid TN 3-4pm, and NE AL about 5pm. Expected environmental conditions look to be about the same from previous forecast: CAPE 2-3,000 J/kg, bulk shear 20-25kts, shear mainly unidirectional, PWATS up to 2", and steep low level lapse rates 7-8 C/km. With this, storms can become strong to severe across the TN Valley. In fact, SPC's morning update, expanded the Marginal Risk (Level 1/5) westward to encompass all of the TN Valley. Main hazards will be gusty to damaging winds, heavy rainfall, marginally severe hail, and lightning.

After that line passes, there is a low chance for a lingering shower or thunderstorm or two until midnight. Some drier air filtering in will help clouds become partly cloudy overnight and lows will be cooler in the low to mid 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday Night) Issued at 939 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

An area of low pressure now situated over the Ontario, Hudson Bay, Quebec of south/central Canada, should remain over that region for the next several days. This will help maintain a zonal flow across the greater Tennessee Valley. By Monday morning, a frontal boundary should be positioned south and east of the area from SE Virginia, to south of Atlanta, near Montgomery, to the Texas Big Bend. Although the front will be south of the area, post frontal showers could occur on Monday across some of our area south of the Tennessee River. Although we're approaching the middle of June, the aformentioned cold front is a "real" boundary depicting two different airmasses. Surface high pressure building to the SE over the northern High Plains will bring cooler conditions to the area. High temperatures Monday will only rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

A cooler trend will continue Monday night, with lows falling into the upper 50s over southern middle Tennessee and adjacent far northern Alabama, to the lower 60s elsewhere. Locations near larger bodies of water should cool into the mid 60s. It should be a tad warmer Tuesday with highs mostly in the lower 80s. Also a bit milder Tuesday night with lows in the low/mid 60s. Normal high and low temperatures this time of year around 89/68 for reference. For the Monday night through Tuesday night timeframe, the presence of the front to our south and nearby post frontal moisture will keep lower end rain chances going for our areas south of of the Tennessee River.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As a large, upper trough over the central CONUS moves eastward and flattens, mainly zonal flow will take hold over the Tennessee Valley. This appears to change come Thursday and Friday, with some global guidance suggesting that a couple of shortwaves will traverse the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary looks to stall over the northern Gulf coast by midweek and largely persist over this region into late week. Meanwhile, a cold front is shown to approach the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, with FROPA sometime on Friday. Overall, expect a dry Tuesday, followed by a low to medium chances (20-40%) of diurnally-driven storms on Wednesday. After a brief respite Wednesday night, medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers and storms are forecast Thursday through Friday. After FROPA on Friday, shower/storm chances then decrease by Saturday.

Guidance indicates sufficient instability both Thursday and Friday, but with lower bulk shear on Thursday compared with Friday. Therefore, while the strong to severe storm potential is uncertain, we can't rule out the potential completely (especially this time of year). We will continue to monitor trends as we move through the week. However, there appears to be signals for heavy rain and a concern for flooding by late week. PWATs increase from around 1.7 inches on Thursday to over 2 inches Thursday evening through Friday. Keep in mind that PWATs over 2 inches are well above the 90th percentile when taking into account BMX Sounding Climatology, so showers/storms will be efficient rainfall producers. In addition, even with a brief "drier" period early in the week, antecedent conditions are very saturated (the ground is very wet from recent rainfall). Thus, these conditions, in addition to even sub-severe winds, may result in an increase in downed trees. Overall, please stay weather aware this week, especially if you have outdoor plans, and check back for updates!

Lastly, for temperatures, expect highs generally in the 80s from mid to late week. Although, it'll be a bit cooler on Friday due to increased rain/storm chances. Lows will increase to be in the lower 70s by Wednesday night due to increased moisture, but are then forecast to be cooler (in the 60s) by Friday night with FROPA.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 529 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Clusters of SHRA and TSRA will develop through the morning hours, becoming more numerous by midday into the afternoon. Exact timing is difficult at this point, so have opted for VCSH with PROB30 groups from 16-24Z. Conditions will be VFR except in and near TSRA when ceilings should drop below 030agl (MVFR) with lowered visibility in either moderate to heavy RA. A cold front will shift winds from west-southwest to northwest by 02-04Z. Patchy lower ceilings below 025agl (MVFR) are indicated after 02Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.