textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- High chances for rain and very low chances for a thunderstorm or two this afternoon into tonight.

- A gradual warming trend will begin early next week, with above normal temperatures favored through much of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 245 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

A shield of widespread light rainfall has overspread northern Alabama at this time. Some embedded moderate pockets of rain are occurring as well. Any appreciable surface or elevated instability continues to be confined to mainly central and southern Mississippi, closer to the center of the surface low. Expect a few pockets of very weak elevated instability (less than 100 J/KG) could possible edge northward to a few locations south of the Tennessee River into the early evening hours. However, confidence is very low this will happen. Though shear will be in place, the instability mentioned will be too meager for any organized strong thunderstorm activity (if we see any storms at all).

That being said, the heavier rainfall will likely develop over the area after 4 PM and continue through the evening hours, as the surface low moves east and into central/southern Alabama this evening. Model trends with SBCAPE instability are remaining south of the area, confined primarily to southern/central Alabama and the Gulf coast states even later tonight.

With strong lift though between now and midnight, some areas could see between 0.50 and .75 inches of rainfall. A isolated area or two could see around 1 inch possibly.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Models develop another surface low in response to a secondary disturbance developing further south in upper level flow over Louisiana towards daybreak on Saturday. This quickly moves E or ESE Saturday morning. The more southern location of the surface low in relation to the disturbance moving through the upper level flow should facilitate little change in the airmass over the area on Saturday, but put an end to precipitation by 8 or 9 AM. Highs will be limited by lingering cloudy conditions that will likely stick around through much of the afternoon hours. This will keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Saturday night, the front stalled to our north is shifted southeast by a dry clipper system that pushes southeast through NW flow. This will bring very slightly drier and cooler air briefly into the area. Temperatures should fall into the lower 30s behind the front by daybreak on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Despite clear skies on Sunday, some cold air advection should keep highs from climbing above the upper 40s to lower 50s. Northwest flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal to zonal early next week, as a strong surface high become entrenched over the eastern seaboard. Models do show one piece of energy aloft that moves east from the Northern Plains into the large surface high that will likely bring some more substantial precipitation to the Great Lakes region/ne CONUS, but overall weakens as it pushes into the surface high.

The main takeaway from that is areas further south will remain primarily dry and warmer than normal through Tuesday night or Wednesday. A very low chance of showers (20-30%) may exist though Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as the weak front stalls over the northeast and extends into the Tennessee Valley region. With southwesterly flow developing and increasing in strength, highs should warm into the 60s by Tuesday and by mid- week possible in the lower 70s.

Models do show a stronger upper low/shortwave embedded in zonal flow developing over the Baja of CA or the desert southwest around this time. This will bring unstable and wet conditions to those areas and will be the next weather producer for the Tennessee Valley region towards the end of the week. Temperatures should continue to warm through the end of the week, possibly climbing into the lower 70s at some point through Thursday.

Most models do hold the surface high in place over the eastern seaboard though through then, so there remains a question as to how far south heavier rainfall or thunderstorm activity may extends southward from northern portions of the Tennessee Valley as this disturbance pushes east and then northeast into the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday into Thursday night. There will be enough shear and instability in place for thunderstorm development, but forcing may be more questionable south of Tennessee.

The front pushes southeast on Friday. This actually looks to be the period of more widespread and possibly heavier rainfall for locations near northern Alabama and further south. A much stronger longwave trough axis pushes southeast and helps to produce this stronger forcing and more shear along and ahead of the front. Some stronger storms may be in the cards with this system.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

MVFR conditions will continue this evening and overnight at both terminals due to -RA and low ceilings below 2 kft. Precipitation will wane late tonight, with low stratus between 1.5 to 2.5 kft lingering through the remainder of the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.