textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 948 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

- Temperatures will be on the rise this week, with highs reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s by Thursday.

- Low to Medium (30-60%) of showers return on Thursday and increase to high rain and thunderstorm chances (80-90%) on Friday.

- We are monitoring the Friday system with some indications that there will be a low chance for a few strong to marginally severe storms and hydrological concerns.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 129 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

It's been quite the dreary day across the TN Valley with overcast skies that have ceiling heights generally below 1 kft. This has produced pockets of drizzle and lowered visibility. This trend will continue into tonight so drive safely. Despite the cloud cover, temps have reached the upper 50s to lower 60s this afternoon. With the persistent cloud cover, temps will remain unseasonably warm and reach the upper 40s to lower 50s overnight.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 948 AM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

The unseasonably warm temperatures will persist through the short term. A sfc low riding along the Lower Great Lakes will pull a weak cold front through the TN Valley on Wednesday morning. We will mainly just see a brief wind shift, no precip or temp changes. The ridge will build a little bit on Wednesday as a system digs across the Southwest, this will help bump temps into the mid/upper 60s despite the lingering cloud cover. Lows will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s which is what our high temperatures usually are for this time of year.

That system out west will swing into the Southern to Central Plains on Thursday. Ahead of it, we will see another disturbance glide through the ridge's periphery and bring us low end chances (10-20%) of showers to the TN Valley Thursday afternoon. Look for rain chances to increase through Thursday night (to 30-60%) ahead of a sfc low and cold front lifting through the Midwest. During this time (Thur afternoon/night) south to southeasterly winds will increase to become 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts. This will help push daytime highs to near record values in the upper 60s to lower 70s! As rainfall by the end of Thursday night might not add up to be much (probably 0.25" or less), this will be the first of many rounds of rainfall to come, as more is expected on Friday. With this trend, will have to monitor hydro concerns on Friday into Saturday. More on this can be found in the Long Term.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1005 PM CST Mon Jan 5 2026

Our primary concern in the long term period will be the aforementioned cold front, forecast to swing through the area Friday night into Saturday morning. This front will bring medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers and thunderstorms. At this time, threats include heavy rainfall/flooding, gusty to damaging winds, and a very low tornado threat. PWATs on Friday are forecast to reach 1.2-1.4" throughout the area, which is above the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology. Despite a disagreement in models on the amount of rainfall, these storms will likely be efficient rainfall producers and cause ponding of water in low lying areas. We will be monitoring the potential for flash flooding and rises in creeks, rivers, and streams as we continue through the week and models fall more in agreement. As far as the severe threat goes, instability and lapse rates continue to look relatively meager. Shear, however, continues to support at least a gusty wind threat and the potential for organized convection. SPC has outlooked portions of NW AL in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for severe weather on Friday into Saturday morning. Recent ensembles have supported this threat to potentially be expanded southeastward. We will continue to monitor trends through the week, and we encourage all to check back in for updates.

Saturday, low rain chances (less than 20%) remain possible within blended guidance due to the disagreement on what time the front will officially clear the area. Post-frontal conditions are forecast to be dry with CAA moving into the area.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 450 PM CST Tue Jan 6 2026

Low clouds and dense fog are expected during the TAF period at both locations. Ceilings look to lower to MVFR/IFR around 6Z. Closer to sunrise, widespread dense fog looks likely with LIFR conditions possible as indicated in the tempo group from 8-12Z. Beyond 12Z, there is some uncertainty regarding how quickly dense fog and low ceilings will erode after sunrise. Additional TAF issuances will work to refine the timing of the return of VFR conditions. Currently it looks like conditions won't clear until mid afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.