textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 738 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

- Low chances for thunderstorms late this evening and tonight. A few could be strong with gusty winds and heavy downpours.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Sunday and Monday with a risk of strong gusty outflow wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall/flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight and Sunday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A broken complex of strong to severe storms over western Tennessee will continue to creep ESE toward the northwest corner of Alabama over the next couple of hours. These storms have generally shown a weakening trend (with a couple exceptions) over the past hour or so and would expect this to continue given that we're losing the sun and guidance continues to show instability wane. However, we'll still have more sufficient SBCAPE/MLCAPE values between 1000-2000 J/kg even as lapse rates really weaken. Bulk shear values around 25-30 kts should be able to keep this linear activity loosely organized as it moves through portions of the region between 02-06z before becoming outflow dominant and weakening. Gusty/damaging winds and locally heavy downpours will be the main threats with the strongest storms. The one "wildcard" so to speak is a pronounced outflow boundary noted near the GWX radar moving northward. It is unclear how this feature will interact with the line of storms as it moves into far northwest Alabama, but some localized strengthening may occur briefly and it's something we'll be watching over the next 60-90 minutes.

These storms will weaken after 06z, but some lingering showers and general thunderstorms should remain through the remainder of the night and into the early morning hours. Tonight's convection will lay out a mesoscale boundary that will serve as a focus for additional convection on Sunday as a mid/upper trough also swings a stronger front through the region. A slightly more unstable storm environment and a similar shear profile will again favor strong to marginally severe storms during the afternoon to early evening timeframe. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats, but marginally severe hail may also be a concern given low-level lapse rates around 7.5 C/km. These storms will shift NW to SE through the region with the front before tapering off during the late evening hours.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

In wake of the storms Sunday afternoon and evening, a clearing trend will occur Sunday night and with calm conditions and a moist boundary layer, patchy fog may return to the forecast. Guidance continues to favor the front pushing completely south of the area Sunday night, dropping PoPs considerably for Monday and Tuesday from just 24-48 hours ago. Still, think that some low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and storms will remain in the forecast -- with the highest chances being along and south of the Tennessee River. The main story for Monday and Tuesday will be the much cooler temperatures as highs will drop into the upper 70s to lower 80s in this cooler, drier post frontal air mass. Thus, it will feel much more comfortable that it has of late early next week.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

As a large, upper trough over the central CONUS moves eastward and flattens, mainly zonal flow will take hold over the Tennessee Valley. This appears to change come Thursday and Friday, with some global guidance suggesting that a couple of shortwaves will traverse the Southeast. At the surface, a boundary looks to stall over the northern Gulf coast by midweek and largely persist over this region into late week. Meanwhile, a cold front is shown to approach the Tennessee Valley on Thursday, with FROPA sometime on Friday. Overall, expect a dry Tuesday, followed by a low to medium chances (20-40%) of diurnally-driven storms on Wednesday. After a brief respite Wednesday night, medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers and storms are forecast Thursday through Friday. After FROPA on Friday, shower/storm chances then decrease by Saturday.

Guidance indicates sufficient instability both Thursday and Friday, but with lower bulk shear on Thursday compared with Friday. Therefore, while the strong to severe storm potential is uncertain, we can't rule out the potential completely (especially this time of year). We will continue to monitor trends as we move through the week. However, there appears to be signals for heavy rain and a concern for flooding by late week. PWATs increase from around 1.7 inches on Thursday to over 2 inches Thursday evening through Friday. Keep in mind that PWATs over 2 inches are well above the 90th percentile when taking into account BMX Sounding Climatology, so showers/storms will be efficient rainfall producers. In addition, even with a brief "drier" period early in the week, antecedent conditions are very saturated (the ground is very wet from recent rainfall). Thus, these conditions, in addition to even sub-severe winds, may result in an increase in downed trees. Overall, please stay weather aware this week, especially if you have outdoor plans, and check back for updates!

Lastly, for temperatures, expect highs generally in the 80s from mid to late week. Although, it'll be a bit cooler on Friday due to increased rain/storm chances. Lows will increase to be in the lower 70s by Wednesday night due to increased moisture, but are then forecast to be cooler (in the 60s) by Friday night with FROPA.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 614 PM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A complex of TSRA will approach the terminals late this evening and if it holds together could produce localized MVFR conditions at both terminals. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window. Thus, have added a TEMPO between 02-06z to address this situation. Convection will wane late tonight and then pick up again Sunday afternoon (added a PROB30 to account for this late in the period). Winds will also increase out of the SW and gust to between 10-20 kts during the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.