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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

- Moderate impacts are expected across northwest Alabama and minor impacts elsewhere due to ice and sleet accumulations through Sunday.

- An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for Lauderdale, Colbert and Franklin counties in NW AL until 6 PM Sunday, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect elsewhere.

- Cold Weather Advisory in effect from Midnight Sunday night through Noon Monday. Wind chills of of 5 below to 5 above zero.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The first waves of sleet and freezing rain have brought hazardous travel conditions this morning to much of north Alabama, mainly along and north of the TN River. The very dry low levels has helped to erode the precipitation on its southeast flank. More persistent moderate to heavy mixed precipitation continues across the mid South into far northwest AL into southern middle TN. A combination of PL and FRZA is falling in northwest AL into southern middle TN. SN was located just northwest of this line. The good news is that the lack of precipitation further southeast is allowing temperatures to rise a few degrees above freezing. Continued warm advection just above the cold layer will also help this cause as well. The higher elevations of Lookout Mtn and the Cumberland Plateau in Franklin County TN may also stay near freezing longer. Also, temperatures will be slower to moderate a few degrees in far northwest AL later this afternoon, warming above freezing this evening giving a reprieve and time for improvement of icing conditions. However, temperatures may stay at or just below freezing across the northwest tip of AL in Lauderdale County. No changes in the Ice Storm Warning or Winter Weather Advisory have been made. That being said, improving conditions are expected tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 1043 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Earlier expiration times may be considered for the Winter Weather Advisory in central and eastern portions of our forecast area as the warm sector surges northward ahead of the approaching Arctic cold front. Persistent freezing rain will continue across the far northwest tip of AL. Elsewhere, moderate to heavy rain showers and a few embedded thunderstorms are expected through Sunday before the cold front arrives. Although widespread flooding issues are not expected, ponding of water is expected and brief street flooding issues may occur in poor drainage locations. The cold front will shift southeast through northwest AL and most of southern middle TN by mid afternoon, and the rest of northeast AL and southern TN from 3-7 PM. At this time, a changeover to wintry precip is not expected behind the front. Temperatures will tumble into the teens overnight with wind chills of dropping into the 5 above to 5 below range. Thus, we have issued a Cold Weather Advisory from Midnight Sunday night through Noon Monday. Black ice is a high probability given the sharp temperature fall and wet surfaces. Temperatures will stay in the 20s for most areas, perhaps hitting 30 in southern Cullman County and in valleys of DeKalb County, but staying below freezing. Thus, shaded areas may see little improvement in black ice.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

By Monday night, the upper level trough axis pushes east towards the Mid-Atlantic. In it wake, high pressure centered across the Southern Plains will be the main driver of local weather. Ideal radiational cooling conditions will take shape Monday night as the pressure gradient weakens allowing for light winds and clear skies. We will truly feel the Arctic airmass as temperatures early Tuesday morning will dip down into the single digits. Grand ensemble guidance indicates there is a 5-10% chance of sub-zero temperatures, mainly north of the TN River with highest chances in southern middle TN. A Cold Weather Advisory will likely be needed to cover this threat.

This cold airmass remains in place through the rest of the upcoming work week. We should finally warm up above freezing by Tuesday afternoon, but barely. With strong CAA in place, afternoon highs only top out in the low to mid 30s despite ample sunshine. Slightly warmer on Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 30s. Both Tuesday and Wednesday night will see overnight lows dropping down into the low to mid teens. By Thursday, a dry cold front will drop southeast across the Tennessee Valley. This will reinforce the cold airmass across the Southeast. Temperatures on Thursday and Friday will struggle to climb above freezing with overnight lows in the lower teens.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 602 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The freezing line is struggling to lift north of HSV and MSL so freeing rain persists at both locations for another few hours. After that, a warming trend overnight will keep precip as SHRA but CIGS will remain IFR. IFR conditions will persist til the end of the TAF period, however precip chances will diminish west to east Sunday afternoon. Wind shear is a concern ~09-10Z til 13-14Z at both terminals as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 413 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between January 31, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is greater than a 60% chance for temperatures below 17-20 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ001>003.

Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ004>010-016.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight Sunday night to noon CST Monday for TNZ076-096-097.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.


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