textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1035 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- A low risk of excessive rainfall and brief flash flooding exists through the early week.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into the late week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An upper level low was spinning over the NW corner of Arkansas this morning. This feature was hinted via an infrared or visible view, but was more definite via the water vapor spectrum. This feature along with general troughing over the eastern third of the Lower-48 will produce lower heights across this area, along with slightly cooler conditions into the mid week.

Mostly cloudy conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley, with area temperatures in the mid/upper 70s and light southerly winds. Fog that impacted parts of the area has dissipated with the advent of daytime heating and mixing. Clouds should breakup somewhat as we go into the early afternoon. High temperatures should rise into upper 80s; most certainly a break from the mid to upper 90s much of the Valley experienced last week. Heat index values should max out into the mid 90s to 101 this afternoon.

Although temperatures were a tad cooler, plenty of moisture remains. Area dewpoints were in the low/mid 70s with precipitable water amounts of around 1.8". Daytime heating should produce surface based CAPES to 1000-1500 J/kg and low helicity values below 100 m/s. Thus thunderstorms of "general" intensity are expected later today, the a potential to produce strong outflow wind gusts, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning. Very heavy rainfall could result in ponding of water, along with an instance or two of flash flooding. Places that received very heavy rainfall the last couple of days would be more susceptible for flooding.

Shower activity should end this evening, as a more stable environment returns with the loss of daytime heating. Low temperatures should fall to around 70 with light winds. Like this morning, fog development could occur in the late night, especially in and near areas that receive wetting rains. Confidence is low on the potential of how widespread or dense it will be.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1035 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

An upper level troughing pattern should be in place over the region Tue/Wed. This in itself will help keep high temperatures a bit cooler. Any fog that forms late tonight should dissipate shortly after daybreak Tue. Daytime heating and subsequent instability will bring low/medium chances of showers and thunderstorms. In a similar environment as today is, overall storm strength should remain "general" with strong outflow winds, heavy downpours, and lightning the main threats. High temperatures on Tue should rise into the upper 80s, with heat index values in the mid/upper 90s. Convection that develops should dissipate as we go into the night time. Low temperatures Tue night should cool to around 70. Wed forecast should be similar to Tue, with low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. High temperatures should be a tad warmer, in the upper 80s to around 90, with heat indexes from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The upper low over the Ozark Plateau will be picked up by the westerlies and directed east through the OH Valley Thursday into Friday. This happens while another trough axis drops southeast into the Great Lakes into the MO Valley along with a weak frontal boundary. Westerly flow at 5h will persist across the mid South and TN Valley as a result. Clusters of thunderstorms will remain tied close to the boundary. For Wednesday and Thursday, only low mainly afternoon chances of a shower or thunderstorm are forecast. As the boundary sags south into the TN valley Friday through Sunday, chances of thunderstorms will go up, peaking at 50-80% Saturday, dropping to 40-60% Sunday. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday-Friday, upper 80s to around 90 Saturday, and middle to upper 80s Sunday. Lows will be consistently in the lower 70s for the most part.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Daytime heating and resultant instability has resulted in the formation of showers and thunderstorms. The majority of this activity was in a broken line extending north/south from middle TN near KGZS to east of K94A, and NW of KTCL, moving east 10-15kt. This activity should impact KHSV from 1800-1900Z, then areas east into the mid afternoon. Gusty winds to 25kt and CIG/VSBY reduction to MVFR, briefly lower will accompany this convection. Have lower confidence on storms impacting KMSL, so opted for a PROB30 rather than TEMPO this afternoon. Convection should fade as we go into the evening. Patchy fog development could occur late tonight, especially in/near areas that receive heavier rainfall. Any fog that forms should quickly dissipate after sunrise Tue AM. Winds into the early evening should be from the SW-W at 5kt, then light/variable tonight into Tue morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.