textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 236 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

- Low to medium shower chances late this week including a few thunderstorms. However, uncertainty remains high regarding severe weather potential.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 236 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Low clouds remain in place at this hour per RGB nighttime imagery and observations. The short range models continue to forecast rapid clearing this morning, most notably along the Cumberland Plateau initially. Patchy fog may develop as this occurs as well. The clearing appears to be starting to occur in east TN where some breaks in the overcast are noted in satellite imagery. After the clouds dissipate, sunshine will push temperatures into the 60s areawide as a surface and 8h ridge axis shift east into the region. North to northeast winds will diminish and become light and variable this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 913 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Zonal flow will dominate through the short term forecast. This will keep our temps on a warming trend as highs soar into the high 60s to low 70s both Tuesday and Wednesday. Unfortunately the zonal flow pattern will also be the culprit charged with stealing our sunshine. Through the week, a mid level low will drop from the north Pacific coast through the central CONUS. The associated trough will dampen as it moves across the conus allowing associated cloud cover to spill into the TN Valley. Cloud cover looks to increase through the day on Tuesday with overcast conditions in place by Wednesday. Despite the cloudy conditions rain chances will remain below 10%.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 913 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A nearly zonal upper flow pattern should be in place across the greater CONUS for the mid and latter portions of the week; albeit weak troughing west and weak ridging east. Upper level disturbances involved within the polar jet as they moves through weak troughing over the NE Pacific basin, are forecast to move over the Tennessee Valley after the midweek. In addition to a feed of upper level moisture, a deep southerly flow will bring additional lower-level Gulf of America moisture to the region.

The above will produce a more unsettled pattern for the late week. As such, lower end chances of showers returns to the forecast before daybreak Thursday. Heightened instability and modest shear will also bring isolated to scattered thunderstorms within more prevalent showers late Thursday into early Saturday. An overall flat upper pattern now depicted could help tame overall storm strength, if that trend continues. Later model runs should give a better picture of system details as we draw nearer to the late week.

Unseasonably mild to warm conditions are expected on Thursday, with highs rising into the mid/upper 70s and the mid 70s Friday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday night should range in the mid 50s to around 60.The extended models and blends show a cold front moving across the Valley on Friday. High pressure building in from Alaska/Canada will bring colder conditions to the area for the upcoming weekend and early next week. At the moment, highs on Saturday should range in the mid 60s, and the mid 50s Sunday. Lows will drop to around 40 Saturday night and into the upper 20s to near 30 Sunday morning.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 422 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Scattered to broken layer of 015-025agl stratus will clear rapidly by 14Z. Then, VFR conditions are forecast through the rest of the period. Light north-norhteast wind will become east-southeast after 21Z as high pressure shifts east.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.