textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 247 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Strong-severe storms may impact the region from mid-afternoon through early this evening. Locally damaging winds, some hail and perhaps a brief tornado are the main threats.

- A strong cold front will bring medium-high chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

- A hard freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with lows in the middle to upper 20s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Bottom line up front: Stay weather aware today due to expected severe weather this afternoon and evening and tonight's flooding concerns.

Will have a couple of showers, maybe a thunderstorm or two, brush those north of the TN River early this morning. Otherwise, overcast high cloud cover will have a mid level stratus deck join in over the next few hours. This stratus deck seems like it could persist through the morning hours.

The dominant sfc low will be up in the Lower Great Lakes with a cold front that trails through the OH Valley, and into Lower MS Valley. A secondary sfc low will develop in the Red River Valley of OK/TX. Storms will start to develop this morning along that cold front and become a line of storms as it progresses eastward. We will need to watch for any development out ahead of the line, otherwise the line will move into NW AL by 19-21Z, and exit our southeastern counties around 01-03Z.

When exactly the morning stratus will erode will have an effect on our instability, but the breezy sfc winds and stout mid level winds will provide plenty of WAA and help afternoon temps reach the unseasonably warm upper 70s. Forecast soundings and ensembles suggest we have a medium to high probability of seeing ~1,000 J/kg of sfc CAPE this afternoon, but have weak lapse rates aloft. Shear will improve as we head into this afternoon to ~30kts 0-3km and ~60kts 0-6km. This will all give way to supporting a risk of strong to locally damaging winds (50-60 MPH) and some marginally severe hail. There is also a risk of a tornado. SPC kept the entire TN Valley in a 2% tornado outlook, but expanded their CIG1 hatched area farther east with the latest update, now along and west of a line from far western Lincoln Co TN, to Huntsville and down to Douglass (Marshall Co).

Want to also bring to your attention that as we focus on the severe threat during the afternoon/evening hours, there is a flooding risk for tonight. You can read more about that in the Short Term below.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

In the wake of a broken band of showers/thunderstorms (which should be exiting our region by 1-3Z Thursday), broad scale ascent will increase as a sharp cold front pushes southeastward at the surface while a lower-latitude mid-level shortwave trough advances east-northeastward over the Gulf Coast states. This setup will be favorable for widespread light-moderate stratiform rain that should end in our southeastern zones around or shortly after 12Z Thursday. With most locations predicted to receive an additional 0.75-1" of rainfall, we will be closely monitoring the potential for a quick transition to areal flooding (from severe thunderstorms) during this timeframe.

Skies will clear quickly late Thursday morning as moderately strong north flow advects a cooler/drier airmass into the region. Although the airmass is expected to be predominately of North Pacific origin, there are indications that some modified Canadian air will come into play, and highs on Thursday should only reach the m-u 50s (following morning lows in the u30s-l40s). Light winds and clear skies Thursday evening will support a quick drop in temperatures (into the l-m 30s), but winds may begin to increase from the south early Friday morning as a deepening area of low pressure tracks across the Upper MS Valley. Thus, the overall risk for frost development is quite uncertain at this point. Low-level flow will veer to SW on Friday as a weakening cold front (attached to the low to our north) drops southeastward before stalling near the TN-KY border Friday night. Thus, we expect highs to return to the m-u 60s Friday, followed by lows in the l-m 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

After a cooler morning in the 40s, southerly flow will take hold on Saturday allowing for a significant warm up over the weekend. 8h temps will warm into the 11-13C range. This will yield high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s Saturday, and middle to upper 70s on Sunday. A strong cold front arrives Sunday night as a powerful upper low rotates through the upper Great Lakes, swinging a trough through the middle and lower MS Valleys. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms will result Sunday afternoon and evening. Very strong cold air advection arrives late Sunday night into Monday morning which could bring a few flurries mixing in with any remaining showers behind the front. High temperatures will only reach the middle to upper 40s for most areas on Monday! As high pressure ridging slides south along the MS River Valley, there is a high chance of a hard freeze by Tuesday morning with lows in the lower to middle 20s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Stratus deck is creating MVFR CIGS this morning and this will continue through the morning hours. There should be a window of VFR CIGs before the line of strong to severe storms arrive this afternoon. Timing of impacts from TSRA is currently 19-23Z/MSL and 21-1Z/HSV. Light rain behind the primary line will persist until nearly the end of the TAF period, ending ~08Z at KMSL and 11Z at HSV but MVFR. Breezy conditions with gusts around 20kts will persist from this afternoon until the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.