textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 922 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Daily chances of thunderstorms are expected through the week. The primary hazards will be gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning but there is potential for isolated severe downbursts and hail as well.

- High heat index and HeatRisk values may necessitate heat products by midweek.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 922 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Morning fog and low clouds have begun to erode with the help of sunrise. Today, the overall synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged. A weakening longwave trough remains draped over the OH/TN Valleys and will continue to dampen and push east through the day. The resulting weak vorticity will be enough to support some showers and storms this afternoon however coverage remains highly uncertain. CAMs have been little help in this pattern as each model shows a vastly different solutions for afternoon storm coverage. The good news is models are in good agreement regarding a low risk for strong to severe storms. With such weak steering flow, slow moving and training storms will support our primary risk being heavy rainfall and flooding. For this afternoon, kept NBM probs of 30-50% chances for rain and storms with highest chances in NE AL.

For places that remain dry, heat will be a sneaky secondary risk. Highs will nudge into the low 90s. Paired with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will flirt with triple digits area wide. Make sure to take proper heat precautions if spending time outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 922 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Through the first half of the week the large scale pattern will undergo subtle changes. The longwave trough and parent low will continue to dampen and shift east with mid level ridging slowly building over the SE CONUS. The most notable change will be a slight increase in temperatures with highs in the low 90s each day. Paired with dew points in the 70s, heat indices will be near and above triple digits each afternoon. We look to flirt with advisory criteria by Tuesday (105F) with confidence increasing in meeting that threshold as the week goes on. We will keep an eye on temp and storm coverage trends to assess Heat Advisory Issuances this week. In addition to heat, the weak SW flow at the surface and aloft will maintain moisture to support our daily afternoon shower chances. Without a strong forcing mechanism, the risk for strong to severe storms will remain low. Even so, with the moist environment, we will retain a risk for frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with all storms.

The scattered nature of the storms will make it challenging to nail down who may have a wash out of an afternoon and who may stay dry and see heat indices near 105F. Currently best rain chances (40-60%) remain in NE AL each day associated with the departure of the trough. In this challenging pattern of heat and afternoon convection, try and be prepared for both. Take proper precautions if outdoors in the heat and keep an ear out for thunder.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

By Tuesday night, NW flow aloft develops over the eastern CONUS. A longwave trough axis settles ESE via upper flow into Missouri and Kentucky with a weaker trough axis hinted at that extends from the eastern Ohio Valley SW into NW GA and NE AL. This forcing could produce a low to medium chance of showers of thunderstorms just after daybreak on Wednesday that increases in coverage as the main longwave trough axis digs southeast during the afternoon and evening hours. This will likely keep highs a tad lower in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Shear remains weak as this occurs, so organized severe weather is not expected. SBCAPE could be between 2000 and 4000 J/KG though in the afternoon for storms to tap into. With high PWATS continuing, heavy rainfall will continue to be a threat with stronger storms that may develop. DCAPE values are around or over 1000 J/KG and soundings do hint at dry air aloft for storms to tap into, so some stronger downbursts look possible with this convection. Models differ on how long this convection lasts into the evening hours before dissipating, but would expect by 10 PM this would occur (some guidance holds on to activity until just after midnight). Not sure how much clearing we will see based on model soundings into the daybreak hours on Thursday. This lack of clearing despite light winds should keep fog from developing.

Models differ concerning how quickly the upper ridge builds northward Thursday afternoon and evening. Some keep a weak longwave trough axis in place over southern Alabama NW into Missouri. This solution would keep the area in a wetter pattern with a higher chance of showers/storms part of the day on Thursday. The other solution pushes the longwave trough axis well east of the Atlantic coast. This solution would mean drier and hotter weather on Thursday with a low chance of showers/storms in the forecast.

Model guidance does seem to converge on a solution that by Friday morning the upper ridge to our south does strengthen and shift northeast over the area. This should warm things up some more. Disturbances moving through NW flow well to our north should keep at least a low chance of showers and storms in the forecast over NE Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Unfortunately, with this strengthening of the upper ridge, 925 mb temperatures in most of the guidance climb into a 25 to 28 degree range (GFS 28 to 29 degree range). This would lend itself with good insolation to highs climbing back into the 95 to 100 degree range unfortunately. With surface winds originating from the Gulf of Mexico, dewpoints will likely remain high. This may begin another mini-heat wave period over the area, where Heat products may be needed.

Models diverge a bit on how much further north the upper ridge builds over the weekend and how much cloud cover/scattered convection occurs. Which scenario holds true could have somewhat of a limiting effect on high temperatures and the heat. Either way, it will remain very hot and the heat wave could continue through the weekend.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1140 AM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

VFR will be the prevailing flight category through the period. This afternoon, low chances (20-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will be present. Confidence is too low in their coverage to include specifics in the TAF and have opted for VCTS at HSV but know that amendments may be needed if a storm moves directly over either terminal. Any storms present look to die around 00Z. Models hint at fog development overnight yet confidence in exact locations and visibilities is too low to include at this time. Additional TAF issuances will address fog possibilities for tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.