textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 928 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

- Low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. - Another low to medium chance of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as a stronger cold front approaches the area.

- Storms will provide some much needed precipitation as total rainfall amounts of 2 to 2.5 inches are forecast.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 107 PM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley this afternoon, with an axis of high pressure promoting plenty of sunshine. This combined with the southeasterly breezes have allowed temperatures to reach the upper 70s as of 18z and will eventually peak in the low to mid 80s by late afternoon. Any lingering cloud cover will mostly dissipate resulting in a clear sky across the Tennessee Valley overnight. Temperatures will drop off after sunset, eventually settling in the upper 50s in most locations by early Monday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday Night) Issued at 928 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

We enter a much more active period during the following 48 hours as a couple of shortwaves (Monday Night and again Tuesday evening into Tuesday Night), will bring high chances (70-100%) for showers and thunderstorms and the potential for severe weather during both windows.

The area of high pressure that has brought us nice weather today will scoot off to the east as the lead shortwave approaches the Mid South on Monday. Deep southwesterly flow during the day will continue to advect Gulf moisture into the region as evidenced by dewpoints climbing into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon. The one exception will likely be far northeast Alabama where some backed surface winds may reinforce the drier "wedge" air mass from the east on the lee-side of the Appalachians. A glance at model soundings illustrates this and is indicative of subsidence from the ridge over much of the Cumberland Plateau. Further west, however, a moderately unstable air mass will develop by the afternoon and early evening, with SB CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg over portions of northwest Alabama. However, without a forcing mechanism don't anticipate much shower activity let alone strong to severe thunderstorms through the evening hours.

The aforementioned shortwave will serve as as trigger for clusters of supercell thunderstorms over portions of the Mid South around 00z, which will eventually congeal into a line as they dip SE toward the Tennessee Valley between 03-06z. This will coincide with a 40-50 kt LLJ developing across the area, enhancing our 0-1 km to 20-30 kts -- with bulk shear values up to 60 kts. This shear is favorable for the maintenance of a well organized line/cluster of storms -- including embedded supercells as they move through the region roughly during the 06-12z timeframe. What is far less certain is what the thermodynamic environment will look like and if this convection will remain surface-based. If the progged CINH is lower than forecast, a conditional setup for all modes of severe weather will exist (damaging winds, hail, and tornadoes), especially given the strong directional shear in the lowest 1-3 km evident on hodographs. Should storms struggle to become surface-based or remain more elevated as the move southeast during the overnight hours, the tornado threat will be extremely low and our primary severe weather concerns would be localized damaging winds and marginally severe hail). Given the uncertainty with this, our greatest confidence in appreciable severe weather threats will be to our north and west Monday evening, with a conditional, lower threat over the Tennessee Valley.

Lingering showers and storms will move across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday morning, but this activity will likely be elevated at this point and remain subsevere. However, some beneficial rainfall will occur with storm total rainfall amounts of 0.75" to 1.25" through midday Tuesday. Guidance is showing this morning activity clearing out pretty quickly, resulting in some heating and destabilization of the boundary layer once again by the afternoon. This is evidenced by afternoon temperatures reaching the lower 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s -- creating SBCAPE values between 1500-2000 J/kg by the afternoon. A stronger trough will move into the Mid South Tuesday afternoon, interacting with a cold front and forcing it to the SE. This will develop more widespread strong to severe storms along the I-40 corridor of TN/AR/OK by the late afternoon/early evening. Unlike the previous night, have better confidence in this activity remaining surface- based, with some slightly stronger shear accompanying it. This would support clusters/line segments of organized convection and potentially a few supercells as well, putting all modes of severe weather on the table, including tornadoes.

As is always the case with these events, the devil is in the details and the mesoscale and thermodynamic environment will play a big part in the coverage of severe storms and the magnitude of the event. However, do have better confidence in some severe thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley during this Tuesday evening/night timeframe. Observations and trends will be need to be watched very closely and folks should continue to monitor the forecast for updates -- and plan on having multiple ways to get warnings both Monday night and Tuesday evening/night.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The cold front should move across the area during Wednesday. Timing of the boundary appears will be in the late morning and afternoon. Medium to high additional shower and thunderstorm chances are expected, with rain chances ending from west to east in the afternoon, as somewhat drier and cooler air filters in from the NW. Depending upon how much rainfall occurs, some hydrological issues cannot be ruled out should runoff cause rises in areas rivers and streams. With clouds and high rain chances, high temperatures for the mid week will range in the mid/upper 70s.

Noticeably cooler conditions are expected Wednesday night, with lows around 50. The cooler trend will continue Thursday, with highs only in the lower 70s. A bit cooler both Thursday and Friday nights, with lows in the mid 40s to around 50. Highs on Friday and Saturday should only rise into the mid/upper 60s. Despite the front moving south and east of the area, it should become stationary to our south. Upper lows moving across the SE states, as well as upglide in the lower to middle troposphere will bring low to medium rain chances from late Thursday night into Friday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the SE/SSE today and tonight, but will increase out of the SSW after sunrise on Monday, potentially gusting between 10 to 20 kts at times from the late morning through the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.