textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 952 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the primary concerns.

- Another low chance of severe storms will exist on Sunday, with localized damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. - Heavy rainfall and a low risk for flash flooding will continue into the first half of the work week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 335 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Early this morning a decaying MCS moved across KY and pushed an outflow boundary to is south and east. Currently, this boundary is across central TN as indicated by a line of showers and storms. While the majority of this activity will miss our forecast area, cannot rule out a stray shower or storm impacting southern middle TN or northeast AL around sunrise.

Later today, a shortwave across the Midwest will drop southeastward reinvigorating the precipitation across KY/TN. Ahead of it, clusters of showers and storms are forecast to develop in a favorable environment capable of supporting strong to severe storms. Model guidance shows SBCAPE increasing above 2000 J/kg, pwats around 2 inches, and DCAPE of 1000 J/kg. One limiting factor is deep layer shear is quite weak. These parameters suggest the potential for severe storms producing damaging wind gusts and locally heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Both SPC and WPC has placed the Tennessee Valley in a Slight Risk for severe storms and flash flooding. Given some uncertainty in where the storms develop upstream confidence in timing is low. Based on latest model guidance the most favorable time period is between 2 pm and 10 pm.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With such a favorable thermodynamic environment in place during the day on Saturday, any showers and storms still in the area after sunset will retain a risk for damaging winds and heavy rainfall until they exist our area. Storms look to clear a little after midnight.

Despite slight breaks in the rain chances each morning, our pattern will remain largely unchanged both Sunday and Monday. The incredibly moist and unstable environment paired with a stalled surface low and associated front will provide enough lift, moisture, and buoyancy to support high chances of storms both afternoons. The favorable thermodynamics will continue to support a threat for heavy rainfall and damaging winds with all storms. With high rain rates possible, any training convection will pose a risk for flooding. Currently, SPC has the whole area in a Marginal Risk on Sunday. With such an active pattern please remain weather aware and check back for updates as the forecast can change quickly.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Several synoptic models meander the upper low into southern middle Tennessee or northern Alabama into Monday evening. This should keep moderate to high rain chances in the forecast through the late evening hours. Some thunderstorms may occur more in the early evening that could produce some lightning and heavy downpours before instability is lost. Rain chances drop significantly and become more isolated after midnight, as the upper low moves WSW into northern Mississippi. The cloud cover (after midnight coverage of showers will be very isolated) will likely keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

During the day on Tuesday, the upper low moves NW into Missouri in most guidance. It pulls a weak warm front northward with it at the same time. This should increase rain/storm chances on Tuesday (especially in the afternoon) significantly. High temperatures hindered by persistent cloud cover and higher precipitation chances will be below normal, only climbing into the lower to mid 80s. By the evening hours on Tuesday, a strong upper ridge pivots SE towards the Tennessee Valley. Strong subsidence pushes into the area as a result. The center of this ridge looks to remain concentrated over the Ohio Valley and the Carolinas through the end of the week. This should increase subsidence over the area and limit convective coverage along a warm front through northern Alabama to an low to medium range.

Through the end of the week, as the center of the upper ridge continues to move SE into the Carolinas, at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm activity looks likely along the weak warm front (which looks to be situated across north central Alabama into eastern Missouri). Shear continues to look very weak, but good afternoon/evening instability is shown by models. Some stronger downburst potential cannot be ruled out. Though the area will be on the western edge of the strong upper ridge, this warm front should keep us from getting really hot again. However, temperatures should warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and it will remain very humid. Thus, heat index values will be higher (Mainly 96 to 104 degrees) Thursday through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

VFR conditions continue this morning and into the early afternoon with light westerly winds. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are forecast this afternoon into the evening. These will bring brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Once the storms clear, expect a low level MVFR stratus deck to linger tonight into tomorrow morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.