textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 906 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

- Gusty winds 25-30 mph beginning this afternoon and continuing into Sunday.

- Low chances for showers this afternoon, increasing to medium to high chances tonight through Sunday.

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 906 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

Satellite imagery this morning shows widespread cloud cover over most of the Southeast. These are likely in response to southerly to southwesterly flow advecting in better moisture from the Gulf and lifting it over the relatively dry airmass in place across the Tennessee Valley, as it evident in both the BMX and BNA 12z soundings. These winds aloft will eventually translate down to the sfc with wind gusts 25-30 mph expected this afternoon. As we head through the rest of today, our airmass will gradually modify becoming more saturated. At the same time, an upper level trough will dip down towards the local forecast area providing some lift for precip by this evening. HIRES model guidance shows a low chance of light showers developing late this afternoon and increasing to medium to high chances tonight. Instability with this system is limited, therefore only a very low chance of an isolated thunderstorm. Overall, most Halloween activities should remain dry as the heaviest precip will primarily be overnight into tomorrow morning.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 906 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

The aformentioned upper level trough axis will shift to our east on Sunday bringing an end to the precip by the late afternoon. In its wake upper level ridging over the Deep South will move into the Southeast. This will gradually warm us back up from afternoon highs in the mid 60s on Sunday to low to mid 70s on Monday. Unfortunately, soundings show a very saturated airmass continuing into the start of next week and therefore, overcast skies remain through the day on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As the longwave trough axis and associated cold front moves east towards the Mississippi Valley area Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridge should continue to amplify. In fact, upper level pressure patterns in models are suggestive of a weak rex block type of pattern setting up over the Midwest. This could end up slowing this cold front down more in future guidance if this pattern more fully develops.

Strong southerly flow and a very amplified upper ridge should allow for highs to climb back into the mid 70s (possibly mid to upper 70s again). This strengthening southerly flow should help to bring more moisture northward from the Gulf of America towards midweek. Very strong mid/low level forcing is shown in guidance ahead of this storm system.

Currently, most guidance develops widespread and much heavier rainfall over northern Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday night ahead of this stronger cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear is not extreme, but does climb to between 40 and 60 knots as the front approaches. In addition, portions of northern Alabama might realize very meager surface based instability, so we may be looking a QLCS type event shaping up sometime during that window. However, more certainty looks to be in a very heavy rainfall threat (maybe 2-4 inches mainly Wednesday into Wednesday night) given the strong/deep forcing guidance is showing over the area and high PWATS values. Expect this heavy rainfall threat to taper off early Thursday morning. Wednesday looks to be a real washout, so highs will likely be kept in the upper 60s/lower 70s (which might be generous).

Expect dry conditions to return to the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Though it will be cooler behind this front, the airmass is not very cold. Highs will remain cool though and drop into the mid to upper 60s on Friday with some lingering cloud cover. Lows should slow drop into the 40 to lower 50s at night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 632 AM CDT Sat Oct 31 2026

VFR conditions prevailed across most of the area, while broken to overcast high altitude clouds move in from the west. Winds aloft have subsided below Wind Shear criteria over KHSV. Stronger winds aloft this evening will bring a Wind Shear risk, so maintained it for KHSV and added it to KMSL. Showers associated with the system could impact KMSL in the late afternoon and this evening at KHSV. Better chances for showers are expected tonight. Went with MVFR CIG/VSBY reductions as a start, but could see them lower should showers become more widespread and/or heavier. Light winds this morning will become ESE 10-15 kt with some gusts to 20kt this afternoon. ESE winds of 5-15 kt are forecast tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.