textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 31 2026

- Light-moderate rain will develop northward into the NW Alabama late Saturday afternoon, with a widespread coverage of rain anticipated from Saturday evening-Sunday morning. A few embedded thunderstorms may also occur (particularly across the southwestern portion of the forecast area).

- East-southeasterly gradient winds will strengthen to 15-20 MPH on Saturday (with gusts of 25-30 MPH), and these conditions will continue through Sunday.

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

A weak frontal boundary currently extends from northern Georgia NW through portions of southern middle Tennessee and into central Missouri. There are a few pre-frontal trough axes over Mississippi and NW Arkansas at this time. Near and south of the front, abundant high cloud cover is in place. Thicker cloud cover can be seen near the afore-mentioned pre-frontal trough axes.

Expect cloud cover to remain in place and be mid level or higher (15,000 to 25,000 feet) overnight. Models generally show this front edging southward into NE ALabama or near the I-65 corridor by tomorrow morning. Between cloud cover and some weak warm air advection near and southwest of the front, not expecting temperatures to drop much below the 55 to 62 degree range in most areas by daybreak on Saturday. This should keep fog from forming overnight into early Saturday morning.

Most guidance does not move strong forcing associated with a longwave trough axis into northern Alabama until 4 PM or later (mostly closer to 7 PM). Not much change from previous guidance, but will delay scattered PoP east of I-65 a few hours in this update. Winds should pick up tomorrow, as 925 mb winds increase to between 20 and 25 knots. This should produce sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph. Low level advection of drier air from the east in the boundary layer near/behind the front will likely produce a noticeable wedging effect in place across northern Alabama. This will likely produce a big difference in boundary layer moisture from west to east (drier east).

Somewhere around the I-65 corridor (likely where the front may be located) and further west, rain chances may start a bit earlier between 4 PM and 7 PM. The precipitation looks very light, even there. Regardless, through the day on Saturday cloud cover will become thicker and should help limit daytime highs keeping them from climbing above 75 degrees in most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

By Saturday evening, most guidance does show strong 700 mb forcing and stronger upper level forcing pushing into northwestern Alabama (associated with a shortwave aloft). This will likely allow for light to precipitation to continue. However, fairly dry air will be near the surface, so this may keep precipitation very light. 925 mb winds increase to between 30 and 40 knots Saturday evening. This should keep breezy conditions in the forecast (sustained winds 10 to 20 mph with some gusts to around 30 mph). This period may need to be monitored for a possible wind advisory, but mixing looks a bit low for one right now. Low level moisture advection at 925 mb really picks up in most guidance towards daybreak in NW Alabama into the morning hours on Sunday. Expect that period to have the most persistent and possibly moderate rainfall chances at times for our area. Models are showing very minimal elevated CAPE, so cannot rule out a thunderstorm or two.

Models have trended towards two main areas of stronger lift later in the day on Sunday into Sunday evening - 1) shifting from NE MS/NW AL into Tennessee and Kentucky and 2) one that extended from southern Alabama into the eastern Gulf of America.

Either of these solutions would keep the more persistent moderate to heavy rainfall mainly to our south and north. Though a few models continue to shift some of the stronger forcing across northern Alabama. Confidence in appreciable rainfall (more than one half of an inch) therefore is low Saturday night through Sunday night. Models continue to forecast very cool temperatures on Sunday, only reaching the upper 50s to around 65 degrees. It will remain cloudy, but higher chances of rain given the forcing splitting us to the north or south gives pause to temperatures being that low.

Just about all guidance pushes the longwave trough axis into NE Alabama or NW Georgia late Sunday night. This should really lower rainfall chances significantly into the low chance realm (20-30%) Cloudy conditions will likely hang around though. This should keep overnight lows fairly warm in the lower to mid 50s again.

Upper level ridging builds back into the region early next week. Thus, highs should climb back into the lower 70s at least (likely a bit higher based on the pattern) by Monday. At the same time, a strong upper low and amplified longwave trough axis develops over the Rockies and Midwestern states. This really amplifies the upper ridge over the southeast through Tuesday. This should present a noticeable warmup again over the area.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1019 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

As the longwave trough axis and associated cold front moves east towards the Mississippi Valley area Monday night into Tuesday, the upper ridge should continue to amplify. In fact, upper level pressure patterns in models are suggestive of a weak rex block type of pattern setting up over the Midwest. This could end up slowing this cold front down more in future guidance if this pattern more fully develops.

Strong southerly flow and a very amplified upper ridge should allow for highs to climb back into the mid 70s (possibly mid to upper 70s again). This strengthening southerly flow should help to bring more moisture northward from the Gulf of America towards midweek. Very strong mid/low level forcing is shown in guidance ahead of this storm system.

Currently, most guidance develops widespread and much heavier rainfall over northern Alabama late Tuesday night into Wednesday night ahead of this stronger cold front. 0-6 km Bulk Shear is not extreme, but does climb to between 40 and 60 knots as the front approaches. In addition, portions of northern Alabama might realize very meager surface based instability, so we may be looking a QLCS type event shaping up sometime during that window. However, more certainty looks to be in a very heavy rainfall threat (maybe 2-4 inches mainly Wednesday into Wednesday night) given the strong/deep forcing guidance is showing over the area and high PWATS values. Expect this heavy rainfall threat to taper off early Thursday morning. Wednesday looks to be a real washout, so highs will likely be kept in the upper 60s/lower 70s (which might be generous).

Expect dry conditions to return to the area late Thursday night into Friday morning. Though it will be cooler behind this front, the airmass is not very cold. Highs will remain cool though and drop into the mid to upper 60s on Friday with some lingering cloud cover. Lows should slow drop into the 40 to lower 50s at night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Fri Oct 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the day at both terminals. Wind shear will increase to 35 knots from 120 degrees at KHSV between 12Z and 15Z. After 15Z, surface winds should increase to between 10 and 15 knots with higher gusts around 20 knots at both terminals. This should end critical wind shear values through much of the afternoon hours at KHSV. A PROB30 group for -RA was added with MVFR VSBYS and CIGS possible from 22Z through 01Z. Wind shear around 40 knots from 130 degrees is expected to return to the KHSV terminal after 00Z. Low to medium chances of -RA and MVFR CIGS or VSBYS is expected at both terminals after 00Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.