textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

- There is a low risk for strong to severe storms on Wednesday, along with locally heavy rains.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 244 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

There have been no changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning, with a pleasant afternoon in progress that will feature highs in the mid 60s-lower 70s. Conditions will initially be favorable for radiational cooling after sunset, but with an increase in high clouds and SSW winds anticipated early Monday morning, lows will range from the lower 40s in the east to the lower 50s in the west (with only a very low chance for development of patchy fog prior to sunrise in sheltered valley locations).

Previous Discussion: Dry northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots will persist across the TN Valley today and tonight, as our region will remain located within the base of a large scale trough encompassing much of eastern North America. In the low-levels, a ridge of high pressure (initially extending from the Lower Rio Grande Valley into the central Appalachians) will progress southeastward with time, resulting in a light southwest wind for much of the afternoon. This, coupled with mostly sunny skies, will yield afternoon temperatures a few degrees warmer compared to yesterday (m60s in elevated terrain and u60s-l70s in the valley).

Surface winds will back to the SSW and gradually strengthen beginning this evening, as a sharp northern stream trough and deepening surface cyclone shift eastward into western Ontario. An increase in cirroform debris clouds (originating from small clusters of thunderstorms tracking east-southeastward through the OH Valley) is also anticipated after Midnight, and these factors should result in warmer overnight lows ranging from the lower 40s/NE to lower 50s/NW. Although environmental conditions will not be as conducive for the development of radiation fog tonight, brief formation will be possible around sunrise (primarily in sheltered valleys and near large water sources).

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Over the course of the short term period, models suggest that a shortwave trough (extending off a cold core vortex in the Hudson Bay vicinity) will become more amplified with time as it develops southwestward into the northern Great Plains. By the end of the period, this feature will likely capture the remnants of a cutoff upper low (currently positioned off the Pacific Coast of CA), with downstream mid-level flow across our region predicted to back to the west and strengthen to 55-65 knots by early Wednesday morning. In the low-levels, we will remain within a regime of strengthening south-southwesterly flow within the warm sector of an occluding cyclone to our north and a secondary low that will evolve across southwestern KS tomorrow and slowly decay as it shifts eastward into western portions of the TN Valley by 12Z Wednesday.

After a warm and dry day tomorrow (featuring highs in the m70s-l80s), attention will turn to the northwest, as both CAMs and global models suggest that a small cluster of thunderstorms may evolve from frontal convection across the MO Valley Monday evening and spread southeastward into eastern AR by early Tuesday morning. Although this system will likely weaken considerably as its remnants begin to turn eastward across TN during the day on Tuesday, it may still bring a few light showers to the northern portion of our CWFA during the afternoon. Redevelopment of at least one (or perhaps multiple) clusters of thunderstorms will likely occur early Tuesday evening in the vicinity of a cold front (extending from the OH Valley southwestward into eastern OK/western AR) as the southwesterly low-level jet increases to 30-40 knots. The individual clusters may have a tendency to track eastward rather than southeastward, but outflow originating from them may spread southward and initiate new showers and thunderstorms in our region prior to 12Z Wednesday (warranting a gradient in POPs from 40%/S to 60%/N). In spite of favorable shear profiles for organized/severe convection, forecast soundings suggest that a stable layer between 4-10 kft may result in predominately elevated convection during this timeframe.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 PM CDT Sat May 2 2026

Come mid week a zonal pattern aloft will develop. This will allow several weak shortwaves to trespass east through the TN Valley ahead of an approaching low pressure system. The rippling shortwaves will contribute to overcast conditions and low (10-30%) rain chances during Wednesday morning. At the surface, SSW flow ahead of the approaching front will surge dew points into the 60s making for a moist environment. Rain chances pick up through the afternoon as the front approaches however prolonged overcast conditions will likely limit afternoon instability. The actual low pressure system and associated front looks to pass late Wednesday into Thursday. Models are still somewhat inconsistent with the timing, leading to uncertainty regarding the potential for severe weather. The front itself will have plenty of shear, however the already meager instability will wane significant after sunset. Should the front pass in the late evening slightly higher chances for severe weather are possible. Should the front pass overnight or early Thursday morning, instability (at least at this point in time) looks to be lacking for a widespread severe risk. We will keep an eye on forecast trends as this feature draws closer.

Low (10-30%) rain chances look to linger after the frontal passage on Thursday as the far north parent low takes it time swinging the trough east through the TN Valley. At the surface, temps will cool down slightly for the remainder of the week with partly cloudy conditions lingering along the base of the parent trough.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

VFR/SKC conditions will continue at the terminals thru this evening, with a lgt SW wind expected to back to the SSW after sunset. Although high-level Cs debris clouds will begin to spread southeastward after Midnight, brief development of BR/FG around sunrise should be confined to wind-sheltered locations, and we will not introduce vsby reductions in the TAFs attm. Sfc winds will veer to SW once again by 15Z, with speeds increasing to 9G17 kts.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.