textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM today, due to afternoon heat index values of 105-109F.

- After a slightly lower coverage of precipitation today, chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms will increase to 40-80% from Sunday-Friday (highest on Monday).

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 318 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Happy July 4th! Some of us are starting out the day with patchy fog thanks to moisture in place, calm winds and decreasing cloud cover, so be sure to drive with caution until it lifts shortly after sunrise.

The ridge over the Mid-Atlantic will continue to scoot eastward and weaken today as shortwaves move out of the Plains. The dangerous heatwave continues, so please ensure you are being safe outdoors in the heat today. Highs will reach the low to mid 90s but the heat index will make it feel like it's 100-108 degrees. Most of the TN Valley remains in a level 3 of 4 Heat Risk (Major Risk) for today as well. Winds will not provide any relief as they will be light and variable. About 5-15% chances for showers/storms exists for this morning, increasing to 20-30% this afternoon and evening, including firework times. Make sure you have a way to get updated weather info throughout the day and know where to go if/when storms approach when you are outside. Remember, if you See a Flash, Dash Inside! We are not anticipating severe storms today like we have the past few days, but these can produce gusty winds, heavy downpours and lightning.

Stay safe and have a great Fourth of July!

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

During the timeframe from Saturday night-Monday night, a subtropical ridge (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will begin to expand westward into the eastern Gulf as an amplifying northern stream wave digs southeastward over the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes before turning eastward across southern OT/QC. This, along with the position of a low-level ridge across the central Gulf, will allow light deep-layer southwesterly flow to return to the region, sustaining PWAT values near or slightly above 2".

As this pattern begins to unfold, a small complex of thunderstorms (originating to our northwest) may spread southeastward across the region Saturday evening, propagated by convective outflow. Although redevelopment of additional showers in its wake (early Sunday morning) appears unlikely, convection should form to our north late Sunday morning in the vicinity of a weak cold front attached to a surface low tracking slowly eastward across IL/IN/OH. Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass across our region, additional outflow-initiated thunderstorms are likely to develop on Sunday afternoon and evening, with a gradual decrease in coverage/intensity expected early Monday morning. A similar scenario will likely unfold on Monday and Monday night, as the frontal confluence axis will remain positioned well to our northwest. Regarding storm impacts, forecast soundings still depict a gradual decrease in CAPE as we progress into Monday, largely as a result of moistening profiles aloft. However, depending on the degree of morning cloud cover each day, boundary layer lapse rates may steepen sufficiently to support a risk for strong wind gusts in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs will fall back into the u80s-l90s by Monday, with overnight lows remaining in the l-m 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The warm and humid airmass will continue into next week as an upper trough axis exits to the east and upper ridging builds over the area toward the mid-late week period. Fortunately this ridge looks to be a little weaker therefore temps and heat indices won't be quite as hot as we have seen this past week. An axis of higher moisture will be positioned over the TN Valley over much of the long term period and will lead to medium chances (40-60%) for rain and thunderstorms each day, peaking during the afternoon hours. PWATS will climb back to the 2-2.2" range and will bring an increased risk for localized flooding, especially over areas that receive consecutive days of heavy rainfall. For now, organized severe weather is not anticipated but some thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe given afternoon instability. Daily highs will top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices reaching the mid 90s to low 100s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 643 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Fog has fluctuated visibilities this morning but VIS has remained VFR. Fog will dissipate over the next hour or so and will remain VFR until late tonight into early tomorrow morning. Better chances for impactful fog development from ~09-12Z Sun. Low chance (20-30%) for showers/storms this afternoon and evening, but with the low coverage, kept it out of the TAF forecast at this time.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.