textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 AM CDT Wed May 14 2026

- A significant warming trend will take place this weekend into early next week as daytime highs will climb into the lower 90s each day. - Showers and thunderstorm will return to the forecast towards the middle of next week, but coverage is very uncertain.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 246 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Breezy northerly winds around 10 mph gusting to between 15 and 20 mph are occurring in area observations. These winds should dissipate early this evening and become light and variable. Not sure guidance is not too warm with overnight lows given the expected radiational cooling setup that will be in place and current dewpoints. Currently, forecast lows are in the lower to mid 40s in southern middle Tennessee and the valley areas of NE Alabama. Low temperatures tonight may need to be lowered into the upper 30s to lower 40s east of I-65 and mid/upper 40s elsewhere with the evening update. Not expecting frost to develop at this time, but subsequent shifts will need to monitor observations and overnight low trends with evening model guidance for this possibility.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

As an upper low works ENE into the weekend off the eastern seaboard, upper level ridging builds over the area. Several models show disturbances well NNW of southern Tennessee. However, the forcing and good moisture profile will remain well to our north and west over Arkansas northeast into the Ohio Valley area.

We should see an increase in cloud cover Friday afternoon. However, mainly expecting partly cloudy conditions. 925 mb temperatures climb to between 18 to 20 degree Celsius in most guidance. This should push highs back to around normal values into the upper 70s to lower 80s.

The upper level ridging continues to be in place on Saturday. Slightly warmer 925 mb temperatures in the afternoon suggest highs could reach the 80 to 85 degree range in most guidance (slightly above normal values). Some disturbances develop a bit further southward, but still keep forcing and better moisture over Arkansas, Kentucky and northern Tennessee. Not expecting any impacts this far south except for mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions. Luckily this will help to temper highs a bit on Saturday, but will likely keep lows a bit warmer Saturday night in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1109 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

During the day on Sunday, the upper high begins to amplify over Alabama and Georgia. Models do show an upper level trough axis moving over the top of the upper ridge at the time. However, most guidance positions the center of the trough axis through the I-65 corridor or further east. This should focus the strongest forcing and better moisture convergence ahead of it over Georgia. This could produce a north/south area of shower and thunderstorm activity east of the area.

The upper level ridging amplifies even more over the area Sunday night into Monday. 925 temperatures climb to between 22 and 25 degrees by Monday in most guidance. This should be our hottest period over the next 7 days. Expect sunny skies, as strengthening ridging should push upper level disturbances well north of the area again. The highs both Sunday and Monday may trend warmer with future guidance given forecast 925 mb temperatures progged. For now, kept with NBM ensemble values (highs on Sunday 85 to 91/highs on Monday 87 to 93).

Low level southwesterly flow increases in strength upstream of the area during this time as well, as a strong upper level low and associated longwave trough axis try to push east from the Rockies into the Tennessee Valley area. This should push lows into the 60s and Sunday night and to near 70 degrees Monday night.

Long term guidance differs on how strong the upper ridging gets and how far east the longwave trough axis and precipitation ahead of it moves on Tuesday. GFS is much quicker and brings a period of more certain rain into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee by then. However, several other models show the upper ridge being stronger and forcing ahead of the longwave trough axis being weaker. For now, kept very low QPF (less than 0.15 inches mainly) for Tuesday. However, some isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms could occur, but shear is very weak.

By Wednesday, models come into better agreement concerning better forcing and moisture convergence over the area and the upper ridging weakening significantly. This looks to be a better chance of shower and thunderstorm activity. This could last into Thursday as additional upper level disturbances move east through a more zonal flow aloft.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through the TAF period. Northerly winds will become light and variable tonight. No fog is expected at the terminals at this time. Winds will become southerly around 5 knots after 15/15Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.