textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 903 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- A slightly lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today and this evening, with the main concern being brief strong winds and localized flooding.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase once again on Monday-Tuesday, with lightning and heavy rainfall/flash flooding the main impacts.

- A progressively lower coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected from Wednesday-Saturday, with dangerous heat becoming an increasing concern by Friday/Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

An upper low has begun to pivot southeast over the area and has served as the forcing mechanism for a broken line of thunderstorms this afternoon. With a more limited thermodynamic environment today, the risk for severe thunderstorms is low but some stronger storms may still produce gusty winds and brief heavy rainfall. The previous discussion remains on track.

Previous discussion: Observed and model soundings indicate the thermodynamic environment will be a bit less favorable today than we saw yesterday, with lower instability this afternoon and weaker lapse rates. There is still a bit of uncertainty regarding coverage today, as this will also depend on whether storms fire along smaller/remnant boundaries from previous convection ahead of and in addition to the increased convergence associated with the aforementioned upper disturbance. PWATs will increase as this disturbance nears, ranging from 1.8-2". This will carry a low risk for localized flooding especially across areas that have seen heavy rain in previous days or where multiple thunderstorms track today. Dense cloud cover will help keep temps a bit cooler today with highs topping out in the low to mid 80s.

Low chances for showers and storms will linger through the overnight hours as the upper low becomes positioned in our northeast areas. Increased moisture from this system will keep cloud cover around through the overnight hours and at this point looks to keep fog development at bay for much of the area. Trends will need to be monitored later as the otherwise saturated soils and calm winds would be favorable for fog development, especially if any clearing occurs in NW AL.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday night) Issued at 903 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Trends have changed a bit over the past few days, now looking less likely that a stronger cold front will push through the area and more likely that this upper disturbance will stall and eventually retrograde over the area, keeping a tropical airmass in place through the first half of the work week. The good news is that the increased clouds and high rain chances (70-90%) each afternoon should keep the extreme heat risk at bay as highs top out in the mid 80s, but it will come at the cost of thunderstorms and a low risk for localized flooding each day. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for flash flooding each day through Tuesday especially driven by PWATs rising above 2" early in the week. The flooding risk will be highest for areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall in addition to the relatively wet pattern we have seen over the past few days. The good news is that the increased clouds and cooler sfc temperatures will be less supportive of strong instability and convective downbursts, so the risk of severe weather will be low during this period. Rain chances will lower Tuesday night as the upper low and better dynamics shift west of the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1009 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Throughout the extended forecast period, global models indicate that a strong mid-level high (initially positioned across the northern Plains) will develop southeastward, becoming centered across western portions of the Lower MS Valley by Saturday. Although the precise location of the high and extent of the ridge are unclear at this time, subsidence and drying aloft will likely contribute to a lower (but non-zero) spatial coverage of thunderstorms each day from Wednesday-Saturday. That said, conditions will become increasingly favorable for strong-severe downburst winds with any thunderstorm activity (particularly by Friday/Saturday). Unfortunately, the synoptic pattern suggests that dangerous afternoon heat will likely become an increasing concern as we head into late next week and early next weekend, as high temperatures will warm back into the lower 90s. This, along with dewpoints in the mid 70s, will send heat indices back over 100F for much of the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions have prevailed across the area early this afternoon with increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the day. Reductions to IFR to perhaps LIFR conditions will become likely during heavier thunderstorms and AWWs will likely be needed at some point this afternoon/evening at either terminal. Low stratus and/or fog is forecast to cause vsby/cig reductions during the morning hours at both terminals. Additional thunderstorms are forecast tomorrow. Amendments will be likely as some conditions could change rapidly over the next 24 hours.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.