textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 854 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

- Moderate (Level 2/4) to Major (Level 3/4) Heat Risk will build into the Tennessee Valley this weekend through the middle of next week, with peak heat index values between 100 to 105 degrees likely, and potentially between 105-109 degrees in some locations Monday and Tuesday.

- Daily thunderstorm chances will continue over the weekend into early next week. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe today. Gusty to damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 239 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

Early morning satellite shows some fog has developed near river valleys and sheltered locations, but is not currently widespread enough to warrant an advisory. Trends will be monitored through the morning to see if fog becomes more widespread or stays contained despite favorable conditions. A dual threat for dangerous heat and a low threat for strong to marginally severe thunderstorms will exist today, both peaking in chance during the afternoon to early evening hours. There are some signs that the heat indices could reach well into the 105-107 degree range this afternoon, but uncertainties on thunderstorm coverage and how that will affect afternoon temperatures currently outweigh the confidence in reaching widespread heat advisory criteria. If thunderstorm coverage is less than currently forecast, a heat advisory may be needed over western and central portions of the area this afternoon. The main concern with any stronger storms today will be frequent lightning and damaging wind gusts up to 60mph. Stay weather aware and hydrated especially if spending time outdoors today!

From previous discussion: While our local environment will remain unchanged thermodynamically, a passing shortwave and associated surface cold front will prompt higher rain chances and a low chance for strong to severe storms Sunday afternoon. Storms look to fire along the cold front just to our north by midday and drop south into our area. With plenty of instability and boundary layer moisture, storms will be capable of frequent lighting and heavy rainfall. Despite the additional forcing mechanism, we will still be lacking any significant shear. Thus, the severe threat remains low with a Marginal Risk in place for most of the area. The main window for any stronger storms is roughly from 2 PM - 8 PM.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 854 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

Outside of daily afternoon shower and storm chances, the bigger threat for the short term forecast will be heat. Through the start of the work week, mid level ridging will build over the Plains. Ridging looks to gradually push east into our area through Tuesday with temps gradually heating up from Sunday to Tuesday. Ensembles show 5-8 degree temp anomalies at the mid levels, supporting some slightly above normal temps at the surface. Paired with our very moist airmass, apparent temps will be flirting with Heat Advisory Criteria nearly every day of the short term. The question for Monday is how widespread 105 apparent temps will be (criteria for a Heat Advisory). There is some uncertainty regarding thunderstorm coverage that may work to limit afternoon temps on Monday. Tuesday however looks to be the hottest day with wide spread apparent temps of 105+, a Heat Advisory will likely be needed in subsequent forecast cycles. Regardless of product issuance or not, it will be important to practice proper heat safety. Wear sun protection, take frequent breaks if outdoors, and never leave people or pets in cars.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 854 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

A strong mean upper trough position will remain in place over the Great Lakes into the northeast U.S. late next week into the weekend while an upper ridge sits over the Southern High Plains. This will keep a robust northwest flow pattern from the northern Plains and Corn belt into the central Appalachians. The good news for the local area is that a cold front will arrive on Wednesday. This will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms before delivering noticeably drier air into the region, at least for a couple of days with dew points dropping into the 60s. Highs will be in the middle to upper 80s Thursday, followed by low temperatures in the 60s. By next weekend, "ridge rider" MCSs may start to clip our area with low chances of thunderstorms introduced into the forecast Friday night into Saturday. The risk of some severe weather will have to be monitored in this pattern with increasing shear and strong instability.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

VFR conditions will persist through the overnight hours with a low chance for patchy dense fog. Additional showers and thunderstorms are forecast primarily during the afternoon and early evening hours today. Reductions to MVFR or lower conditions will be likely within heavier storms, and airport weather warnings will likely be needed at both terminals this afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.