textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

- A few thunderstorms may impact the western portion of north AL late this afternoon/early this evening. Brief strong wind gusts could accompany the most intense cells.

- There are low to medium chances of thunderstorms for much of next week. However, timing and impact confidence remains low at this time.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Areas of early morning fog have slowly begun to see improvements with the sun rise. Under mostly clear skies highs are forecast to rise to seasonal norms, reaching to low 90s by this afternoon. Despite the nice late summer day that develops through the afternoon, a marginal risk for strong to severe storms will exist this evening. On a larger scale, we remain in a NW flow aloft pattern allowing for shortwaves to easily ripple through the TN Valley. This evening, an approaching shortwave paired with a weak cold front will provide enough lift to initiate storms likely off to our NW by mid afternoon. CAMs are in okay agreement with most showing at least NW AL being clipped by some convection this evening. Some of the more bullish solutions do bring strong to severe storms through the whole area, but we have low confidence in seeing widespread storms at this time.

Current thinking is storms will initiate to our NW and drift through NW AL from around 5 PM to 10 PM. As storms move through, instability will be actively decreasing as we lose the best daytime heating. The storms look to pass prior to the cold front and thus be displaced both spatial and temporally from slightly higher shear along the front. This will limit the overall severe threat with damaging winds being the primary concern. The front looks to move through during the night time hours with slight CAA funneling in through dawn. This will be immediately felt as lows tomorrow morning drop into the mid to high 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 909 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

The short term forecast will have two features of interest. The first is slightly cooler temps with highs and lows a degree or two below seasonal norms. Highs look to largely remain below 90 degrees with lows staying below 70. The second feature of interest will be the overall synoptic pattern, which will remain in a ridging west / troughing east regime. This will keep us in NW flow and support additional shortwaves passing through the TN Valley. The first of these looks to be from Monday to Tuesday. While it's a little too soon to pull out specific details, really any passing feature could be enough to support general summertime thunderstorms each afternoon. Please check back for updates regarding any specific hazards and timing.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 751 PM CDT Fri Aug 21 2026

In the extended forecast, we will get a break from the extreme heat conditions, however in exchange for that, we will be stuck in an unsettled pattern.

We will start off with the pattern of an upper level low up in Quebec and the far NE U.S with an amplified ridge stretching from the southern Rockies up through the Northern Plains. On the back side of the ridge, a smaller upper-level low in Manitoba will try to be the driving force for a pattern change. As that smaller low slides SE into the Upper Great Lakes mid-week, the ridge will be dampened enough for it to round the ridge. This pattern will keep us in a northwesterly flow through the week. Embedded in this flow will be shortwaves that will swing through the TN Valley, keeping daily rain chances in. Right now it looks like there is a chance for an MCS to drop through on Tuesday, then again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Will keep an eye on trends for specific hazards and timing, but for now will stick with NBM POPs. Daytime highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s with overnight lows around 70 degrees.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Sat Aug 22 2026

VFR conditions are largely expected through the TAF period. A low chance for showers and storms exists this evening at MSL from around 23Z-02Z. Have not included anything in the TAF due to low confidence but amendments may be necessary if storms do make it this far east. Any flight restrictions should lift back to VFR by 06Z and prevail through the remainder of the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.