textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Showers and storms will dissipate after Midnight. A low chance of patchy fog late tonight into early Monday morning.

- Low to medium chances for strong to severe storms late Monday morning into the early afternoon. Main threats are damaging winds, hail, and locally heavy rainfall will be the primary threats.

- Dry weather finally returns Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight and Monday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A few clusters of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms remain across portions of southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama. Some additional convection was noted upstream across portions of Tennessee and Arkansas. However, an overall weakening trend was noted with this activity and would expect this to continue with the setting sun over the next 1-2 hours. Any lingering pockets of light rain will dissipate by Midnight, with partly cloudy and calm conditions prevailing for the remainder of the overnight hours. Given the very moist boundary layer and light winds, patchy fog and/or very low stratus may develop during the 06-12z window early Monday morning. If it can develop, this fog may become locally dense and we'll need to watch observations closely overnight.

We remain in northwest flow aloft on Monday as a mid/upper trough amplifies as it moves from the Mid South and mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians by Monday night. Upstream, guidance hints at an MCS developing across KS/MO tonight and merging with remnant outflow from convection across AR/KY. This feature would eventually grow upscale into an MCS and veer to the SE/SSE. Moving with the mean flow aloft overnight, this would eventually place it at the doorstep of far northwest Alabama around 15z Monday morning. Guidance has come into decent agreement of a late morning to early afternoon arrival time of this feature. This line and/or clusters of storms would then track SE through the region through the mid afternoon.

Though there continues to be somewhat of a spread in exactly how convection to the NW will evolve, guidance (especially Hi-Res guidance), continues to favor a very supportive environment for severe thunderstorms in the Tennessee Valley. The approaching mid/upper-level trough will increase bulk shear values across the region to around 30-40 kts. Meanwhile, thermodynamically, we'll be very unstable even in the mid to late morning hours. Progged surface-based CAPE values range from 2500-3500 J/kg (and as much as 4000 J/kg in the afternoon), with MLCAPE values of 1500-2500 J/kg. Very steep low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km were also noted on model soundings as well as a good amount of dry air in the mid-levels (DCAPE around 1000 J/kg). This would support the potential for localized strong, damaging winds -- to go along with large hail (thanks to the steep lapse rates and good CAPE in the hail growth zone). Model soundings and hodographs favor very unidirectional northwest flow and this setup does not appear supportive of a tornado threat. Those with outdoor plans should pay attention to theMonday forecast given the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms on Monday.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

The aforementioned trough will bring a front through the area Monday evening, bringing an end to the storms and the severe weather threat. A cooler, drier air mass will advect into the region late Monday night into Tuesday, resulting in tranquil weather for the first time in nearly two weeks. Northerly flow will reinforce this cooler, drier air mass -- resulting in daytime highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. Quite a comfortable way to start the month of June!

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A large area of high pressure will build in mid to late week, promoting tranquil, dry conditions through Friday as ample sunshine and light southerly winds will allow highs to reach the mid to perhaps upper 80s, with overnight dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high will eventually slide east of the area during the weekend as another system approaches from the west. This may bring low chances (20-30%) of showers/storms back into the forecast for Saturday and low-medium (20-40%) on Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Dry (rain-free) conditions are forecast overnight, which will allow for VFR conditions to linger into the early to mid morning hours. However, some localized patchy fog may develop at both terminals, promoting MVFR/IFR conditions briefly between 09-13z. Another round of TSRA will develop mid/late this morning into this afternoon and have handled this with a PROB30 for now. Localized MVFR conditions may occur with this activity between 15-21z and AWWs and amendments may be needed during this window.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.