textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

- Daily low to medium chances of thunderstorms are expected through Wednesday. The primary hazards will be gusty winds, heavy downpours, and frequent lightning but there is potential for isolated severe downbursts and hail as well. These chances become low chances towards the end of the week.

- High heat index and HeatRisk values may necessitate heat products by midweek.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Earlier rainfall has dissipated. Some locations received very heavy rainfall in Madison and Morgan counties especially, where at least 2 to over 4 inches of rainfall fell. This produced some flash flooding near the Somerville, AL area. Several other locations across northern Alabama received 1 to 3 inches as well. Dewpoint depressions in most areas are already low 0 to 3 degrees due to the rainfall and convective activity earlier this evening.

We are starting to see some clearing skies west of the I-65 corridor in Alabama per satellite imagery. Based on subsidence seen in some model guidance towards midnight onward, believe clearing will likely occur over most of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee overnight. With the heavy rainfall that fell and low dewpoint depressions already in place, light winds and clearing skies should allow for better fog development towards and after midnight. We will have to watch for dense fog...possibly fairly widespread developing towards daybreak. Lows should drop into the lower 70s towards daybreak on Monday.

Most guidance builds the upper ridge northward some during the day on Monday. However, they do leave the trough axis that forced convection earlier today over North Carolina extending WSW into northern Alabama. Thankfully, the amplitude of the trough axis is much weaker. However, models do shows some forcing aloft along the trough axis aloft on the northern edge of the upper ridge over the area. The lift should be sufficient for low chances (~30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon to develop. PWATS will remain high, but less coverage will hopefully allow for a lower threat of flash flooding. Highs should be a tad warmer with a lower coverage of precipitation expected, climbing into the upper 88 to 93 degrees. Heat index values will get close to advisory level, but values of 105 degrees are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any product at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The upper ridge only slightly strengthens over northern Alabama on Tuesday. Not much change in the forecast on Tuesday, so a low chance 20-40 percent of showers and thunderstorms will continue. Flash flooding will continue to remain possible with high PWATS remaining in place, but potential will not be as high as over the past weekend. Highs should be a tad warmer with a lower coverage of precipitation expected again, climbing into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will get close to advisory level again, but values of 105 degrees are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant any products at this time.

The upper ridge continues to build further north into the area on Wednesday. This should raise high temperatures a bit higher into the 90 to 95 degree range west of the I-65 corridor. NBM gives up medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms. This seems a bit high based on the average of most other model guidance, so this may need to be revised down in future forecast updates. Depending on the actual coverage flash flooding may remain a threat. A Heat Advisory may be needed by Wednesday for a good portion of northern Alabama.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1117 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The ridge continues to build over the southeast Wednesday night into Friday. This should really lower shower/storm chances to between 10 and 30 percent in the afternoon. Highs will likely rise into the mid 90s at least by Friday (maybe Thursday). Based on forecast 925 mb temperatures, conditions could be hotter, maybe some upper 90s in a few locations. This will likely amplify a heat wave that will continue into the weekend. Highs in guidance look a bit low based on forecast 925 mb temperatures.

On Friday, most models build the center of the upper ridge over Arkansas and Mississippi. This further strengthens the upper ridge over the area. This should push highs into the 95 to 100 degree range. The heat wave will likely peak over the upcoming weekend. With some 925 mb temperatures forecast, we could climb over the century mark during that period. Extreme heat products may be needed over the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1249 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Clearing has occurred in NW AL thus MVFR VIS reductions have already been observed at KMSL. Expecting KHSV to follow in the next hour or so. The question is how low will VIS fall overnight. Right now, keeping it MVFR, but will monitor for amendments. Low chances (20-30%) for showers and thunderstorms at KHSV, thus included a PROB30 for this issuance. Chances are even lower at KMSL, so will keep TSRA out at this time.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.