textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Medium chances (30-40%) of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. No severe storms expected.

- Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, with a low risk of a few strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats.

- Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 347 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Southwesterly flow aloft across the TN Valley will continue to gradually strengthen from this afternoon through the overnight hours, as a shearing mid-level trough (initially across the Four Corners region) ejects northeastward into the Mid-MO Valley ahead of a stronger northern stream wave dropping out of western Canada. Nevertheless, gradual deepening of the related surface low is predicted to occur as it begins to accelerate northeastward from the central Plains into the northern Great Lakes. This will maintain moderately strong southerly winds in the boundary layer across our CWFA, with current gusts around 20 MPH expected to diminish with sunset. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will also persist for the remainder of the afternoon across a broad region extending from the central Gulf Coast northeastward into the TN Valley and southern Appalachians. This activity is largely being driven by strengthening deep-layer warm/moist advection and should largely dissipate in our region by 1-2Z with the onset of the nocturnal cooling cycle. However, until that point, cells with 40-50 dbZ echo tops in 13-17 kft range will be capable of producing CG lightning strikes, and with very steep lapse rates in the 0-2 km layer a few instances of wind gusts up to 30-40 MPH may occur as well. A few showers may linger into the early morning hours across portions of northeast AL, with a modest increase in the SSW low-level jet supporting a return of low stratus clouds region-wide prior to sunrise. Overnight lows will generally be in the l-m 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1004 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The main focus in the short term period will be the threat for a few strong to severe thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon. An upper wave will pivot across the northern Plains and into the Great Lakes region and a cold front will push through the Midwest on Saturday. While not particularly strong, there will be a favorable overlap of shear and instability tomorrow afternoon as a line of thunderstorms push through the area from the northwest. SPC has added a 2% risk area for tornadoes west of I-65 where the most favorable overlap of instability and low level helicity will exist. Elsewhere, damaging winds and hail will be the primary risks, especially along any bowing segments of the line/cluster and stronger/isolated updrafts embedded within. These storms should move into NW AL around noon and exit the area to the east by 7-8pm. While storm total rain amounts have trended slightly downward and the risk of flash flooding is low, PWAT values between 1.3-1.6" will be supportive of heavier downpours that could cause ponding of water on area roadways.

Temperatures will cool slightly Saturday night into Sunday as the front stalls near the region. This will keep medium to high chances for rain and storms in the forecast through Sunday as the front interacts with the area, though we will have less instability to work with in the wake of the convective activity on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1025 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Most guidance weakens the forcing along the front significantly Sunday night as it pushes southwards into central or southern Alabama. Some light scattered showers or isolated elevated thunderstorms could continue into early Monday morning. Abundant cloud cover and lingering southwesterly boundary layer flow will keep overnight lows warm in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Models develop a stronger surface low over the northern Great Plains area into south central Canada Sunday night with a surface front extending southwest into Kansas and Oklahoma. This front has a hard time pushing very far southeast into the surface high over the southeastern CONUS on Monday as the surface low moves northeast into east central Canada. However, increasing southwesterly and southerly flow ahead of it gradually pull the weak front over southern Alabama northward. This will likely keep most of the area cloudy and contending with scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity through Tuesday night. The abundant cloud cover on Monday will likely keep highs in the mid to upper 70s, below record highs.

The most widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely occur Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning before becoming more scattered. Instability looks fairly impressive (1000 to 2000 J/KG) on Monday afternoon. However, 0-6 km shear looks weak, but may be just enough for some strong to marginally severe thunderstorm activity. Luckily, wet-bulb zero heights are above 10,000 and helicity is very weak in guidance right not, so the main threats would be frequent lightning and straight line wind damage is any severe storms did occur. However, confidence is low at this time in severe development given weak shear and the lack of helicity in place. This activity should weaken quickly and reduce its coverage quickly after sunset with the loss of instability. Lows will be a bit warmer likely, only dropping into the lower 60s primarily.

Models are disagreement on where the frontal boundary ends up Tuesday into Thursday. Either way, a new surface low develops over northeast New Mexico into southeast Colorado by Tuesday afternoon. The surface high over the southeast continues to be an impediment to the surface low and upper level energy moving move to the southeast versus northeast into Wednesday. This should keep low to medium chances of showers or thunderstorms in the area, mainly north of the Tennessee River through then. Warmer temperatures are expected, with some possible breaks in cloud cover at times on Tuesday afternoon. Highs as a result may reach 80 degrees on Tuesday.

Continued warming is expected into Wednesday as the primary surface low moves east northeast as the front stretching from central Texas into the Ohio Valley. Highs with maybe some breaks in cloud cover at times (though primarily mostly cloudy) could hit the lower 80s.

Rain and thunderstorms chances will likely increase sometime later in the afternoon hours on Wednesday into Thursday, as a stronger frontal boundary extending southwest from the surface low exiting the northeast states pushes further southeast into the Tennessee Valley. Stronger forcing and shear looks to setup ahead of this frontal boundary and could spell a more organized severe and heavy rainfall threat.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 529 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

At least BKN CIGS around 5000 feet are expected between 00Z and 2Z at both terminals. A PROB30 for -TSRA directly affect each terminal was added (KMSL from 00Z to 01Z and KHSV from 00Z to 03Z). Expect predominant MVFR CIGS to develop around 8Z at KMSL and 9Z at KHSV. As a cold front moves into the terminals after 18Z, a tempo group for -TSRA was included.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.