textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Saturday, due to afternoon heat index values of 105-109F.

- Strong-severe thunderstorms will impact portions of the region once again today (mainly from 2 PM into the early evening hours). These will feature a risk for locally damaging downburst winds, small hail, and excessive lightning. Slow storm motions will also lead to a higher risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding (compared to previous days).

- After a slightly lower coverage of precipitation on Saturday, chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms will increase to 40-60% from Sunday-Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The Heat Wave will continue a few more days into the afternoon hours on Saturday. Currently temperatures are in the upper 80s to around 90 degrees at 1030 AM. Dewpoints are a bit lower today than yesterday at this time. Scattered showers and storms have developed already this morning in west central Alabama into northeast Mississippi. This is likely near a generally weak low level convergence boundary that extends WSW from northeast Georgia.

Based on morning soundings, northern Alabama is more likely (given the position of the boundary to our south) to be in an airmass more similar to the Nashville, TN sounding. This 7 AM soundings show a bit more mixing of drier air to the surface after temperatures reach and exceed 90 degrees roughly. This and slightly cooler high temperatures (93 to 97 degrees - mainly due to a bit more cloud cover early this afternoon) should keep heat index values a bit more in check today. Expecting heat index values to climb to between 105 and 109 degrees later this afternoon. However, the more extreme heat index values we have seen the past few days is more unlikely.

Guidance continues to develop afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. Most guidance seems to develop activity this far north closer to between 1 and 3 PM and then expand coverage over the area with time. Expect 30 to 60 percent coverage at times through the afternoon into the early evening hours across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

Based on morning sounding from BMX, theta E differences of around 30 are still in place. 2-6 km lapse rates around 7.5, SBCAPE of 2500 to 3300 J/KG, and high PWATS (1.74 inches) remain in place as well. So strong to severe microburst potential hasn't diminished very much. Cannot rule out some small hail, but larger hail given slightly less SBCAPE this afternoon seems a bit more of a stretch.

These storms could last until between 9 and 11 PM, similar to last night, before dissipating. Some patchy to areas of fog was included overnight in portions of NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, where dewpoints may remain higher overnight. Expect overnight lows to remain rather warm only dropping into the 69 to 75 degree range mainly.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Most guidance develops a deepening trough axis over Missouri on Saturday. This should help to concentrate low level moisture convergence to our NNW over SE Missouri into the Ohio Valley area. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity should be concentrated in those areas as well as a result. Given instability shown in models though, cannot rule out some low chances (20-30%) of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon into the early evening hours. Though the higher of those chances will likely be closer to NW Alabama.

The upper ridge to our ENE really weakens (central pressure drops from 594 mb to 591 mb) on Saturday into early next week. This will likely keep high temperatures on Saturday lower, more in the lower to mid 90s. However, with focusing of higher dewpoints in the late afternoon hours east of the upper trough axis heat index in reality may be able to climb over 105 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Much higher precipitation chances and more cloud cover associated with the trough axis as it moves into Mississippi and Alabama is expected Saturday night into early next week. Shear continues to remain weak in guidance so far and thermodynamic properties become more saturated throughout forecast soundings. So, not looking like severe storms will be in the cards during that period. However, stronger and more consistent forcing along with a very saturated profile/good instability will be in place for thunderstorms to tap into. Highs will continue to be cooler (88-93) due to cloud cover and precipitation. Morning lows will not change much remaining in the lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances should decrease to between 20-40% at night. A slightly drier airmass in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough (to our north) may lead to a lower coverage of showers and storms beginning Thursday. The main storm impacts at this point appear to be gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop this afternoon into the early evening hours. Have included a Prob 30 at both KHSV and KMSL for this from 20-02Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions are anticipated with the exception of patchy BR or FG late tonight into early Saturday morning in a few areas. We may need to include this at KMSL or KHSV if rain occurs in either vicinity today or this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.