textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Low chance of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River today.

- Medium chances of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of strong to severe storms and a slight risk of excessive rainfall/flooding on Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 242 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Under a low scattered cloud deck, temps have warmed into the low to mid 80s. Strong southerly flow can be seen in surface observations with gusts up to 20 MPH in our area. The strong southerly winds have aided in pushing low to mid 70s dew points into north AL. Through the remainder of the afternoon, dew points will continue to rise with most places reaching 70 degrees or higher. The higher moisture will support low rain and thunder chances through this afternoon with best (10-20%) chances south of the TN River. Dense cloud cover will build in overnight ahead of approaching Tropical Storm Arthur. More details about local impacts below.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur looks to move on shore near Louisiana late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning and push ENE through the short term forecast. In the last 24 hours of model guidance, models have been fairly consistent in keeping the actual low well south of us, with the bulk of it moving through central AL. As such, our impacts from this tropical low will be much more conditional, contingent on if we get any heavier bands of showers and storms that lift north. This makes the flooding and severe forecast rather challenging.

If heavier bands do not lift north, we may not get much rain at all, certainly no widespread severe or flooding threat. The remainder of this paragraph will cover if heavier bands do lift north. We will have enough shear and instability in place to support a low severe threat with damaging winds being the primary concern. Hodographs are not super supportive of tornadoes, but with very low LCLs and potential cell interaction, a weak tropical tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will however be the overall biggest concern. Models indicate PWATS may climb a decent bit above 2" putting us well above the 90th percentile for PWATS per SPC sounding climatology for both OHX and BMX. With high mid and low level RH, all storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could lead to nuisance flooding or flash flooding if storms train over the same area. Models keep the heaviest rainfall to our south, yet inconsistently show isolated bullseyes of 3+ inches. Seeing this much rain will again depend on if heavier tropical bands make it this far north.

What has become a little more clear is timing for both the rain associated with the tropical storm and the approaching cold front. Morning models are in decent agreement showing rain lifting north into our area around sunrise and remaining for most of the work day. The approaching front has slowed down and now looks to move in early Friday morning. Uncertainty remains regarding coverage of showers and storms along the front as it moves through. Currently we are maintaining highest rain chances at 50-60% for Friday morning with dry conditions developing by Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately the remainder of the short term will be somewhat unsettled as we remain in southerly surface flow supporting low to medium shower chances on Saturday. The good news is, for both Friday and Saturday, we are not currently forecasting any widespread severe or flooding risks.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On Saturday, the cold front will be well to our south and sfc high pressure will build in from the Midwest and OH Valley. This will give us a much needed break in the rain with only low chances (5-15%) of showers/storms in place, with the higher values south of the TN River. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but not sure if it will dry out enough to get any postponed yard work done. Unfortunately, this drier forecast won't last long. An unsettled pattern will start back up on Father's Day/Sunday and persist into early next week due to rounds of disturbances sliding through and a system swinging across the Midwest into the OH Valley. Look for low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms each day with highs in the 80s and lows around 70 degrees.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 642 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

A few showers scooted past the HSV terminal right before the start of the TAF period. Kept in the tempo for another few showers for an hour but not expecting anything more than that. Beyond this, conditions will be MVFR due to low CIGS and showers and thunderstorms will return around 13Z Thur. Through the rest of the forecast period, there is low confidence on just how long thunderstorms will persist over the terminals and if we will get a break towards the end of the TAF period, as it will all depend on the track of the tropical system that slides south of here.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.