textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026 - Low chance for a few strong to severe storms tonight into early Wednesday morning along and ahead of a cold front. Gusty to damaging winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy rainfall will be the main threats.

- Unsettled weather will continue for the remainder of the week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms, as a frontal boundary remains stationary south of the Tennessee Valley.

- Into the late week, locally heavy rainfall could occur near and south of the Tennessee River, as well as near and east of Interstate 65 corridor.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

An area of strong to severe thunderstorms were heading southward across middle Tennessee around 20 mph. This activity should it hold together should reach Lincoln, Moore, Franklin counties in the 10-11 PM timeframe. Other isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms were noted west of metro Nashville. The state of the storms as they reach our area is questionable. Most of the models have hinted that the strongest convection will weaken somewhat as they near our area. The HRRR was showing this trend, then hinting at them intensifying across portions of far northern to NW Alabama around and after midnight. Staying on more pessimistic route, we can expect strong to severe outflow wind gusts (especially more to the north), frequent lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Flooding risks should be mitigated somewhat if the weakening trend holds. Otherwise outside of shower activity, expect one more humid and muggy night as lows fall only into the mid 70s.

These showers were preceding a southward moving cold front that was noted roughly from SE Ohio, to SW Kentucky, and northern Arkansas. This boundary should continuing heading southbound, reaching NW Alabama Wed morning, and advancing slowly across the Tennessee Valley in the course of day. The presence of this front will bring to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms during the day. Associated cloud cover and an airmass change will result in not as hot conditions, with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Corresponding heat index values will remain well below criteria (mid 90s to 103 degrees), so no more heat advisories, at least for the next few days.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

Slightly cooler air north of the front should filter across the area Wed night, with lows a bit more comfortable from the mid 60s to around 70. The aformentioned frontal boundary will become stationary south of the Tennessee Valley from Thu into the upcoming weekend. The presence of this front will keep medium to high chances of showers/thunderstorms, mainly for areas south of the Tennessee River and east of I-65. Low to medium rain chances are expected elsewhere. Some of the showers more to our south and east could be locally heavy. High enough rainfall amounts will be sufficient to warrant low chances of excessive rainfall and the potential for flash flooding.

Cooler conditions will be noted Thu with highs in the mid/upper 80s. More comfortable lows will continue as well Thu night with lows in the mid 60s to around 70. A tad warmer Fri with highs in the mid 80s to around 90.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 933 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

The long term period will largely be influenced by an upper level ridge and subsequent sfc high pressure system looming over the Deep South and slowly shifting eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. A few features to watch will be how remnants of Tropical Storm Bertha interact with a cold front south of our area. How these two features interact will largely dominate the forecast for Friday into Sunday. We currently have low to medium rainfall chances through that time period and are outlooked for a Marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for flash flooding from the Weather Prediction Center. If the front shifts over the area and stalls, the flooding threat will increase. However, there is still too much uncertainty to dive into details as it is several days out. If you have outdoor plans early this weekend, it's highly encouraged to check back in for updates. Otherwise, as the aforementioned ridge shifts eastward, dry weather should return to the area early next week along with a warming pattern as highs begin to climb back into the mid to upper 90s. Additional heat products will likely need to be considered if trends continue.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 554 PM CDT Tue Jul 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the evening and overnight. A PROB30 group was added at KMSL for a low chance of MVFR conditions due to showers reaching the area from the north between 08-10Z Wednesday. Additionally, a PROB30 group is in place at KHSV late Wednesday afternoon into the evening for a low chance of thunderstorms causing MVFR conditions.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.