textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

- Low (10-20%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return on Friday, increasing to medium (50-60%) from Saturday-Monday.

- Temperatures will remain above climatological normal values through at least early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 311 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

The previous discussion remains on track. However, a couple CAMs hint at some precipitation development in NW AL this afternoon. Confidence in this is low and mentionable PoPs have remained out of the forecast. However, cannot rule out a few sprinkles. High temperatures are still on track to warm into the 70s, with the mid 70s being reached in NW AL.

Previous Discussion: A cold surface high situated off of the New England coast has pushed a wedge/backdoor type front across the eastern half of our area. The higher terrain of the Appalachians to our east for the most part keeps chilly air common on the N-NE side of such fronts out of the area. The boundary extended westward from middle Tennessee to the southern Great Plains. A presence of that boundary and a passing upper level disturbance helped to bring light showers/sprinkles over portions of the Tennessee Valley. The light precipitation was noted mainly north of the Tennessee River and points northward. With the disturbance moving more to the east, shower activity over the forecast area for the most part has ended.

On a larger scale, a zonal flow pattern was in place over the Lower-48. An upper level disturbance moving across the northern Great Basin, should head across the central Great Plains into the mid week. Effects from it should remain well to our north. The aformentioned frontal boundary should also move northward, as high pressure becomes established off of the east coast. This should result in a dry and warm spell for the start of the month.

No weather of consequences is expected into the overnight and on Tuesday. Mild early March conditions are expected with overnight lows from the upper 40s east to mid 50s west, and SE-S winds of 5-15 mph. With the front well to our north and a deep southerly flow becoming established, a nice warmup is expected. Highs under partly cloudy skies temperatures should rise from around 70 east to mid 70s west, with southerly winds of 10-15 mph.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

A dry and unseasonably mild period will continue through the mid week, thanks to a deep southerly flow rounding high pressure over the NW Atlantic basin. Milder conditions are expected with lows Tuesday night from around 50 east to upper 50s west, with light SE winds. The mid week will feature more clouds than sun. But a southerly flow and rising heights will produce highs from the mid 70s to around 80, with lows Wed night from the low/mid 50s east to around 60 west. Even milder Thursday under more clouds than sun, with highs into the lower 80s. Standing record warm minimums and highs will probably remain in this period.

Some record temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday:

WednesdayThursday Huntsville 61/1955 82/192364/1961 81/1910 Muscle Shoals63/1955 83/202265/1961 86/1908

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

We will start of the long term with high pressure stationed in the SW Atlantic. The southwesterly flow aloft and the breezy southerly flow at the sfc will pull in warm, tropical air into the region. This will give way to temperatures 20+ degrees above normal on Friday and Saturday as highs reach the low to mid 80s, and ~15+ degrees above normal on Sunday with highs in the upper 70s. We have the potential to meet or break temperature records on Friday and Saturday, so stay tuned.

As for the weather pattern, an upper level trough will deeply dig out West on Friday, then break into a southern stream cut off low near Baja California while a short wave rides into the Midwest on Saturday, dampening the high pressure across the Southeast. A low chance (15-20%) of showers returns on Friday but the highest chances of showers and thunderstorms will arrive this weekend. As a sfc low lifts through the Midwest this weekend, the associated cold front will slowly move eastward but it's uncertain on if it will make it into the TN Valley. This will allow for a few rounds of heavy rainfall (medium chances 40-60%) and some thunderstorms to the TN Valley Saturday into Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 456 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the late morning before lowered ceilings allow MVFR conditions to reside over both KMSL and KHSV. VFR conditions are forecast to return by this evening into early Wednesday morning. Beginning late this morning, breezy conditions are forecast with gusts up to 20 kts. Winds should shift from southeasterly to southerly through the TAF period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 558 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of northern Alabama and adjacent southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation on March 10th and 11th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.