textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1003 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

- Temperatures will be on the rise this week with increasing humidity yielding a Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2/4) in some areas Wednesday through Saturday. - Low to medium chances of thunderstorms will return to the forecast late this week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 331 AM CDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Another cool start to the day across the Tennessee Valley as morning temperatures are in the upper 40s to lower 50s. With clear skies and light winds, temperatures may fall another degree or two prior to sunrise. Northerly flow aloft will once again keep a dry airmass in place today with afternoon highs warming into the mid 80s under mostly sunny skies. Good mixing this afternoon will once again mix down a very dry layer between 850-700mb bringing dewpoints into the lower 40s. Thankfully, winds remain light keeping the fire weather risk low.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

As the upper ridge continues to intensify during the mid week period temps will be on the rise each day. Low level flow will also shift to the south during this time period and will result in increasing humidity toward Wednesday and Thursday that will bring the HeatRisk back into a Moderate risk (level 2 of 4). Highs will top out in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with dewpoints rising back into the lower 70s. This will yield afternoon heat indices in the mid to upper 90s, especially on Thursday when the upper ridge is stronger. The good news is that we will remain dry through the short term period as the higher axis of moisture remains more confined to the Gulf coastal region, but we will see a gradual increase in diurnally driven clouds through Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1003 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

By the start of the long term, a pattern change will be on our doorsteps. Aloft, a long wave through will be approaching from the west as ridging departs off the east coast. At the surface, this will be accompanied by a surface cold front pushing across the central CONUS. By Thursday night into Friday we will find ourself sandwiched between high pressure to our east, and an approaching cold front to our west. This will place us solidly within southerly flow. This southerly flow will work as a pipeline for moisture from the Gulf up into the TN Valley. At the surface, dew points look to return to the 70s, while aloft, PWATs look to push well above the 90th percentile for early October (2"+).

This moisture will prime us for a very wet weekend. What remains somewhat uncertain is how much forcing will present as the parent trough looks to weaken through the weekend as it moves through the TN Valley. This gives us some pause when considering weekend rain chances. The current question is if high rain chances will be prolonged over a wide spread area or if shower and storms will be more scattered creating a more localized concern. Kept blended guidance for this forecast cycle with medium to high rain chances in place Friday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Flooding concerns will be highly dependent on the location of prolonged rain and speed it falls. If the rain falls at a steady rate, local drainage may be able to handle it with minimal problems. If stronger storms develop, periods of heavy rainfall could lead to some flood concerns. Please check back for updates.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

VFR conditions with light winds and clear skies continues through the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.