textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 155 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

- A Flood Watch is in effect Today through Saturday morning for a low risk of flash flooding.

- Total Rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches.

- There is a low (marginal) risk of a severe thunderstorm or two Today through Saturday morning. The primary hazard is damaging wind, but there is also a very low probability of a tornado.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 155 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

Regional radar was showing multiple bands of showers expanding within the low level jet axis and moisture transport zone from western TN through MS into LA. The showers were just entering far northwest AL at this hour. These showers are forecast to continue to expand and become widespread as they shift northeast into north AL and southern middle TN this morning. These particular showers are forming just east of the SBCAPE axis (250-500 j/kg) along and west of the MS River which is limiting the risk of thunderstorms and severe weather thus far. The risk will increase somewhat this morning, mainly southwest of our forecast area, but will remain quite low for north AL and southern middle TN. Low level and deep layer shear are supportive of damaging wind and mesocyclones, but instability would have to increase to realize a severe threat. The primary hazard for our area today will be moderate to heavy showers (embedded thunderstorms) which could lead to ponding of water and perhaps minor street flooding. However, the high resolution convection allowing models (CAMS) continue to indicate that a break in the rain may occur by midday into the afternoon hours across northwest/north central AL into southern middle TN as the low level jet axis shift east. The Flood Watch will begin at 12Z. Temperatures will remain nearly steady in the 60s today, perhaps rising into the upper 60s to around 70 in northwest AL once the rain ceases for a few hours.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 930 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

Regardless of what happens Friday afternoon, models are consistent in bringing a large area of rain back into the TN Valley overnight from Friday to Saturday. While this looks to be largely stratiform rain, it could work to enhance any ongoing flooding concerns. This will prolong our flooding threat through the end of rainfall mid day Saturday. As such, a Flood Watch remains in effect through Noon on Saturday. Rain and clouds look to clear through the afternoon as the front finally moves through the TN Valley. In its wake, wind aloft will back, inducing NW flow. Surface high pressure will mirror NW flow at the surface allowing a CAA regime to promptly set up both at the surface and aloft.

This will immediately be felt Saturday night as lows drop into the mid to low 30s. Sunday will be clear yet highs will will be retained to the low to mid 40s are we stay in our NW flow regime.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 930 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

High pressure will dominate over the area as we begin the next work week with little change in the synoptic pattern until mid-week. The cooler post-frontal airmass will linger through Monday with morning lows in the 20s and highs in the mid to upper 40s. Another chilly night is in store Monday into Tuesday morning as lows fall to the 20s once again. Southerly winds will bring warmer temps and a slight increase in moisture on Tuesday ahead of a positively tilted trough that will begin to dig into the southeast on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by a cold front that will bring low chances for rain to the area Wednesday afternoon and evening. The environment ahead of this front still looks starved for moisture and thus any measurable rainfall should only amount to a few hundreths. After highs in the 50s Tuesday and Thursday, low temps will fall near the freezing mark Thursday morning with highs back to the 40s during the day.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 505 AM CST Fri Jan 9 2026

A solid band of SHRA and embedded TS will move east across all of north AL and southern middle TN this morning into the early afternoon hours. The persistent SHRA may end temporarily and improve to VFR ceilings for a few hours in northwest AL including KMSL after 17Z. However, the rain area and low ceilings will remain more persistent further east. Areas of -RA will redevelop by 01-03Z with persistent IFR conditions expected tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for TNZ076-096-097.