textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 920 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

- Medium to high chances (60-90%) of thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with a low risk of severe weather. Damaging winds are the primary hazard.

- There is a medium chance of thunderstorms on Monday, some of which could be strong.

- An organized and widespread risk of thunderstorms exists on Wednesday, with a low risk of severe weather.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 920 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Low clouds have overspread most of the forecast area, except for far northwest AL. The clouds will lift and scatter out some by midday into the early afternoon hours, allowing for more ample surface heating to take place. SBCAPE values of 1000-1500 J/Kg will develop rather quickly as a result of temperatures reaching the middle to upper 70s with dew points in the lower to middle 60s. This instability will assist the advance and maintenance of an approaching QLCS now reaching the MS River valley. Various CAMS are in very good agreement on timing now with arriving in far northwest AL at 20-21Z, and exiting our southeast counties by around 02-03Z. With low level shear vectors becoming rather parallel to the line movement, the threat of mesovortices looks pretty limited, but will watch this trend closely. The primary hazard will be gusty to damaging wind gusts along the gust front of the line.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 920 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Any lingering showers early Sunday morning will shift southeast as a cold front drops southeast through the area. A narrow ridge axis will move into the OH and TN Valleys through eastern TX. This will provide a sunny and dry afternoon Sunday, with dew points sliding back into the 50s.

A fast moving shortwaves in the west-east 5h flow arrives quickly on Monday. This generates a broad area of southwest flow in low levels that will quickly increase Theta-E advection and low level moisture. One or more clusters of showers and thunderstorms will develop in the east TX and AR Monday morning, spreading quickly northeast into the TN Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. With 40-50kt of 6km bulk shear and a plume of 1500-2000 J/kg SBCAPE upstream across the lower MS Valley, there is a low risk of severe storms outlooked just to our southwest. However, I would not be surprised if this is expanded further northeast if these forecast parameters hold.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Updated at 425 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

[425AM UPDATE] - SPC has recently outlooked a portion of our local area in a low risk of severe weather on Wednesday. Thus, we will be monitoring this system for midweek closely. Check back for forecast updates, especially as details become clearer in the coming days. Continue to stay weather aware and have an emergency plan in place, as we have officially entered our Spring severe season!

Previous Discussion:

This front is expected to continue to move northward Monday night into Tuesday. The more unusual trend of the warm air winning out continues early next week, as the frontal boundary heads northward. With warmer air returning and despite good rain chances, lows then should mainly range in the lower 60s. As the upper disturbance departs, lower chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. With decent warm air advection, high temperatures Tuesday should rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lower end rain chances are expected Tue night mainly over our northern and western area. Otherwise the warmer trend will continue, with lows in the low/mid 60s.

At the moment; an amplified upper level flow pattern (troughing west and ridging east) will become more of a split-flow pattern as we go into the weekend and early next week. A disturbance over the Great Basin within the mean trough will move southward and become part of a cut-off upper low set to form over the Baja this weekend. This low eventually early next week will rejoin the main northern stream, and get ejected eastward across the Mid South to the Appalachians in the later portion of next week.

Another surface low should form over the southern Great Plains on Wednesday and head to the northeast along the boundary that moved north of here on Mon/Tue. This next system will bring additional scattered to numerous showers to the area Wed/Wed night. A few thunderstorms could be mixed with more predominate showers Wed night. This front appears will move to the SE across the area Wed night into Thursday. Showers with this system should taper off from NW to SE during the day Thu. Dry conditions should return Thu night into Friday.

One more warm day Wed with highs inching back to around 80. This time, the warm temperatures will be coming to and end Wed night, as colder Canadian air filters in from the NW. Lows Thu night will chill into the 40s. A return to more seasonable conditions are expected on Thu with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chilly conditions return Thu night with lows in the mid/upper 30s to around 40. A bit milder Friday the 13th with highs into the mid/upper 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1036 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Ceilings of 020-030agl (MVFR) will lift and/or scatter back to the VFR category by 18Z. South-southwest winds will gust at 20-25kt this afternoon in advance of a line of +TSRA. The line will move from west to east across north AL and southern middle TN from ~20Z-02Z. A gust front will produce brief gusts of 30-40kt, with a few locations reaching near 50kt. For now, have included ~40kt at KMSL and KHSV. Behind the initial line of +TSRA, -SHRA will persist through tonight with a diminishing areal coverage expected. Low ceilings below 010agl (IFR) will develop by 05-07Z, with improvement to above 010agl (MVFR) by 16Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.