textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1031 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- A low chance of thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night in northeast AL and southern middle TN with a marginal risk of severe weather.

- Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk develops Sunday into Monday and continues through the middle of next week with Heat Index values of around 100 to 109 degrees each day.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 202 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Overall, there have been no significant changes to near term forecast reasoning for the rest of the afternoon. A gradually decaying MCV will continue to drop southeastward from central MS into southern AL this afternoon/evening, along the northeastern periphery of a subtropical ridge centered across northern Mexico and adjacent parts of southwestern TX. As this occurs, minor height rises and subsidence to the north of this feature will largely limit convective updraft strength in the vicinity of a subtle low-level streamline confluence axis extending from northwest into west-central AL. Thus, we will maintain a low (15-25%) POP for a few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm across this region through sunset, with any lingering convection expected to dissipate quickly between 0-2Z.

Overnight, southerly winds at the surface will begin to strengthen (particularly across the western half of the CWFA) as a deepening surface low lifts northeastward across KS in conjunction with a mid-level shortwave trough. Although a slightly more organized cluster of showers and storms (originating in the vicinity of the low's warm front across eastern KS/western MO) will make steady progress to the east-southeast during the early morning hours, this activity should not impact the local area prior to 12Z. However, an increasing coverage of high-level clouds will keep overnight temps several degrees warmer (compared to previous nights), with lows in the 65-70F range.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1031 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The mid to upper level trough axis shifts slowly east on Friday, which will shift the low chances of diurnal convection to areas east of I-65, although confidence is low at this time. Another weakening MCV that develops in the Plains tonight will arrive Friday evening in northwest AL and middle TN. However, at this point weakening forcing and warm air aloft may suppress development of thunderstorms Friday night. On Saturday, a 5h ridge begins to build slowly over the Arklatex region. This will direct shortwaves and MCSs from the Plains into the OH valley, including into northern and eastern TN as a cold front drops south into these areas. There is a low chance that the clusters of thunderstorms along the front will clip our northeast counties Saturday into Saturday night, but confidence remains low. The SPC has included these areas in a Marginal severe risk during the Day 3 period. Otherwise, expect muggy conditions on Saturday with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s followed by lows in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

The aforementioned ridge of high pressure will amplify and build north and east across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys early next week. A very warm, humid air mass will spread eastward across the area underneath this ridge. This will create major to extreme heat impacts during this timeframe across much of the Deep South, including the entire Tennessee Valley region.

Each day (Sunday through Wednesday) will be characterized by mostly sunny to partly cloudy conditions, with high temperatures warming into the mid to upper 90s (with a few spots potentially reaching the 100 degree mark Tuesday/Wednesday). These hot temperatures, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, will create heat index values between 100-109 degrees each day. Heat Advisory products will likely be needed early next week, especially factoring the very limited recoveries overnight (lows in the mid to perhaps upper 70s).

NWS Heat Risk values highlight a vast majority of the region in Major Risk for Sunday and Monday. By Tuesday and Wednesday, NWS Heat Risk highlights an Extreme Risk across the entire region. These Major to Extreme Heat Risks, mean that this heat will affect everyone, especially those sensitive to heat and without adequate cooling/hydration. Health systems, industries, and infrastructure may also be impacted, especially by Tuesday and Wednesday as the heatwave builds with no relief occurring overnight.

If you have plans this weekend through much of next week, it is absolutely essential to practice heat safety such as staying hydrated and moving/remaining indoors in air conditioning during the peak heating of the day.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

There is a low chance of a SHRA or TSRA through 00Z, mainly in northwest AL. However, confidence is too low to include at either KMSL or KHSV. VFR conditions are forecast otherwise during the period.

CLIMATE

Issued at 926 PM CDT Wed Jun 24 2026

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the Tennessee Valley in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 2-4. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures above above the mid 90s and Heat Index values above 105 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.