textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 928 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast late this afternoon into tonight. A few stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected.

- Rain amounts of 0.5-0.9 inches expected, with a few locations receiving over 1.0 inch.

- Temperatures fall to ~5 degrees below normal on Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 148 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Ample heating has occurred resulting in SBCAPE values of 2000-2500 J/kg over northern and central MS. This has generated two main bands of new convection across MS into southwest TN. This will speed up timing of showers and thunderstorms in northwest AL this afternoon. The good news is that effective bulk shear is 20kt or less in advance of these showers and thunderstorms. The higher shear is found further west behind the precipitation. So, still expect gusty winds with the thunderstorms, but the severe risk remains quite low. A few other showers have developed in northeast AL as well. Beneficial rainfall of 0.5-0.9 inches with areas of 1 inch plus are expected through tonight, particularly if stratiform precipitation can linger into the night.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

High pressure will drop into the southern Plains east into the OH and TN valleys on Sunday bringing much cooler and drier weather to the region. Afternoon highs will only be in the middle to upper 60s, so about 5 or so degrees below normal. West-northwest flow at 5h persists through Monday with another sunny and cool day expected. After lows around 40 or in the lower 40s, highs will reach the middle 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

After an upper shortwave moves over the Ohio Valley Monday night, upper ridging will take hold over the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. By late week, this ridge is expected to build and push towards the east coast. This then leaves the Tennessee Valley in southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will largely dominate, but a cold front looks to drop into the region on Tuesday. Not much moisture is associated with this feature at the moment, so it's more likely to bring an increase in some cloud cover and winds through midweek. At this point, these winds are expected to be more breezy versus reaching Wind Advisory levels. Another high pressure system is then slated to drop into the eastern CONUS from south- central Canada behind the front. This feature is expected to maintain its influence over the Appalachians, stretching southwest into Mississippi and Alabama, through Friday.

Ultimately, little to no rain chances are forecast through the week. The main story will be the cooler temperatures to start the week due to cold air advection from the northwest. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday, with lows in the 40s both Monday and Tuesday nights. We are still keeping an eye on temperature trends for Tuesday night because, if lows actually dip into the mid to upper 30s in some spots, frost may become a concern (especially for sensitive vegetation). Trends in the blended guidance have been a bit back and forth whether it will get that cold. But, looking probabilistically, there is currently a low to medium chance (10-40%) of temperatures dropping below 40 degrees, especially for our Tennessee counties. Again, this will be monitored; however, as we've been discussing these past couple of days, it's not quite time to put away the cold weather clothes just yet. Keep that jacket handy early next week! Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your preference for warmer or cooler weather, the cooler temperatures won't last long. Expecting temperatures to then moderate and gradually warm back into the 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 609 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

MVFR to VFR conditions are forecast to continue over the next several hours before decreased ceilings and visibilities allow MVFR to IFR conditions through the TN Valley. VFR conditions are forecast to return by the late morning hours on Sunday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.