textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1049 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- A low risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. The primary threat will be damaging winds with a low risk of a tornado or two.

- There is a low risk of excessive rainfall (with a low threat for localized flash flooding) through tonight, with ponding of water on roadways likely.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 133 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

No major changes from the previous discussion. We have observed around 2-3.5" of rainfall so far in NW AL and southern middle TN. With continued showers/thunderstorms moving over that area, it will be monitored closely for any flooding concerns. Ponding of water on roadways is likely, so we continue to urge caution while traveling. Where we previously had billow clouds/stable air south of the TN River, these have since transitioned to HCRs which is indicative of destabilization within this area. As storms shift into this area over the next few hours, our primary concern will be a low-medium risk for damaging winds as well as a low tornado threat in addition to heavy rainfall. Areas north of the TN River, where thunderstorms and clouds have lingered this morning, will be a much lower risk for severe due to not being able to destabilize. Models are hinting at additional development occurring in Mississippi, which should shift eastward into the area this evening should it be realized. The primary storm mode is still multicell clusters, however, supercells are still on the table due to the strong bulk shear present. The severe threat is still forecast to be out of the area by around 7 PM, with lingering showers continuing overnight presenting a low chance of lightning.

Previous Discussion: The primary talking point is the potential for severe weather as well as flooding this afternoon as a cold front pushes southeast through the area. Morning soundings from both JAN and BMX show the environment capped, however, model soundings throughout the TN Valley indicate we will destabilize this afternoon. This has not happened yet as billow clouds continue to reign over the area in satellite imagery. Destabilization will be dependent on lingering cloud cover from this morning's thunderstorms. Models indicate cloud cover lingering primarily north of the TN River this afternoon, which should limit the severe threat. South of the TN River, however, clearing is likely and diurnal heating/sunshine will contribute to a more favorable environment to support the overall low threat of severe storms.

Timing remains on track from the previous update, which has multicell clusters pushing into the area around 1-2 PM and continuing eastward. Favorable CAPE (~1500 J/kg) and shear (~30 kts) will contribute to a continued severe threat. Poor lapse rates, however, will overall decrease our confidence in severe hail occurring. We continue to have a low-medium threat for severe winds (60 mph or greater) as well as a low tornado threat. In addition to the severe threat, a low flooding threat continues to exist as well. Forecast PWATs are around 1.6-1.8" throughout the area, which is above 90th percentile sounding climatology per BMX. We have already observed ~0.5-1.5 inches of rainfall primarily along and north of the TN River, with the highest values in far NW AL. An additional 1-2" are forecast with locally higher amounts up to 3-4". This will result in widespread ponding of water, which will create hazardous driving conditions during the afternoon peak traffic hours. Models indicate the higher end of these forecast rainfall amounts are most likely going to occur in Cullman County NE into Jackson County.

Activity should shift out of the area around 7 PM. Lingering showers with a low chance of producing lightning will likely linger in portions of the area behind the cold front.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1049 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

There is a low chance of lingering hydro concerns Thursday morning pending any rises of creeks, streams, or low-lying areas. Overall, through the early weekend, dry weather will prevail as sfc high pressure filters in behind the cold front. A gradual warming trend will occur as highs go from the upper 60s/lower 70s on Thursday to the upper 70s/lower 80s on Saturday. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into 40s/50s each night. As the front stalls in southern AL through the end of the week, lingering cloud cover could primarily affect southern portions of the area, which will limit how much warming occurs each day. The forecast remains dry, however, through Saturday. Saturday afternoon into the evening, low rain chances (30% or less) will push back into the area. More details on this in the long term forecast discussion below.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper level low pressure system situated over the Hudson Bay region should slowly drift eastward from Ontario into Quebec as we go through the weekend and early next week. This system will help maintain general troughing along the eastern North American domain. Lower heights as a result of large scale troughing will tend to keep daily temperatures close to or below seasonable norms. With the average trough weakening somewhat, it should not be as chilly Friday night, with lows mostly in the lower 50s.

The cold front that went southward across the area during Wednesday; by Friday evening should be stationary, extending in a west to east manner from coastal Texas, across the Florida Panhandle and off of the GA/FL coast. An overrunning of moisture from the Gulf region, as well as upglide noted in the 300K region, will make for an unsettled weekend across the Tennessee Valley. The lifting of moisture in the lower altitudes as shown in the isentropic view will bring lower end chances for showers mainly over our more southern areas Friday night into Saturday night. Deeper moisture returning northward will bring higher end rain chances, along with some thunder mixed amongst the heavier showers late Saturday into Sunday. Given that this setup is more of an upglide/overrunning type event and there is minimal instability, thunderstorms should remain "general" in intensity. Another cold front should sweep in a west to east manner across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Dry weather should return, just in time for the new work week.

Far as temperatures, high temperatures Saturday, with more clouds than sun and low rain chances to our south, should rise into the mid/upper 70s. Even with rain chances, high temps Sunday should rise into the lower 80s. Temperatures should cool down Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. A bit cooler next Monday with highs in the mid 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1157 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

VCTS conditions are forecast through most of the TAF period along a cold front with TEMPO or PROB30 groups added to account for higher confidence in thunderstorms affecting the sites. IFR to MVFR conditions are forecast as prevailing groups through the TAF period with low chances of LIFR conditions at times of thunderstorms due to decreased ceilings and visibilities. AWWs are likely. VFR conditions are forecast to return to the area early Thursday (08-10Z).

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.