textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Heat Risk increases to Moderate Risk (level 2 out of 4) on Sunday to Major Risk (level 3 out of 4) for parts of the area on Monday. For Tuesday, most locations will be at Major Risk (level 3 out of 4).

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing for Monday. Gusty winds may accompany these storms.

- A cold front (preceded by thunderstorms) will bring a slightly cooler/drier airmass to the region for the end of the work week. Rain chances will increase once again early next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Sunday) Issued at 1100 CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

A shortwave that crossed the region earlier today helped to instigate shower and thunderstorm development that brought a swath of ~1-2 inches of rainfall to some areas. The latest guidance suite in addition to satellite imagery suggests this feature is just to the south of the area late this evening. Shower activity diminished quickly in its wake amidst the rain-cooled local air mass in place. Ambient flow aloft impinging on the cooler air mass and experiencing lift has generated low stratus across parts of the area late this evening, while areas of fog could also be observed developing in satellite imagery in the eastern valleys. This will likely continue overnight, with perhaps more fog expected especially in areas that received appreciable rainfall on Saturday. A few showers and perhaps a storm could develop overnight along an old stalled boundary cutting across the area, but chances are low (~10-30%).

On Sunday, a drier air mass aloft is expected to move into the area. An increase in drier air aloft will aid in increased overall sunshine/insolation, although some lower cu/stratocu may linger. At the same time, PWs that were as high as ~2.3 inches on Saturday, will decrease to ~1.5 inches or less. Without a strong forcing mechanism, convection chances will be decreased (<10%), and generally limited to smaller cells that may develop due to differential heating or along old outflow boundaries. High temperatures should be much warmer than on Saturday, with highs in the low/mid 90s at most locations. WBGTs will also be around 86-88 F during the day. We are considering the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Sunday which will be coordinated during the overnight.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night to Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Early next week, and in fact, for much of the week, the pattern across the CONUS will remain entrenched...featuring a broad sub- tropical ridge centered over the SW and a trough along the East Coast. The TN Valley will lie essentially at the trough/ridge interface, although characteristic "wobbling" of the broad ridge will lead to some changes in our weather over the period. For Monday, a shortwave rounding the northern and then eastern flank of the ridge, may move into the TN Valley. This is depicted in the broader medium range guidance suite. This will be the fly in the ointment so to speak for the issuance of any Heat Advisory for Monday that would otherwise be warranted given sfc temp/dew point expectations. However, with the presence of a possible MCS or even a training of convection that looks plausible, the rain would limit heating of course, but the potential instability could produce strong thunderstorm activity. This will bear some watching for the Monday morning/afternoon timeframe.

Otherwise for Tuesday, as the subtropical ridge is expected to move and expand eastward towards the region, a plume of hot air extending from the SW CONUS looks to sweep across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday are currently forecast to reach the mid/upr 90s at most locations, but 100 F degrees or higher is not out of the questions. Heat indices could breach 110 F as well with WBGTs at/above 90s in more urban locations.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Extended range model data suggests that a developing surface low will track eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday night/Wednesday, in conjunction with an amplifying longwave trough across the eastern CONUS. A cold front attached to the low appears likely to drop southward through the TN Valley during this timeframe, although details regarding specific timing are unclear at this point. A warm/moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of the front, with steep low/mid-level lapse rates and CAPE to support a couple of rounds of thunderstorms (perhaps an MCS Tuesday night followed by additional convection more directly forced by the cold front Wednesday). Furthermore, deep-layer NW flow of 20-30 knots will exist within a contracted height gradient between the trough to our east and a strong mid-level high over the southwestern CONUS, and this could support a risk for damaging winds given the favorable thermodynamic environment.

In the wake of the front, light-moderate northerly winds will advect a cooler/drier continental airmass into the region, with dewpoints briefly falling into the 60s an PWAT values falling to around or slightly below 1" from Wednesday night-Thursday night (and perhaps into Friday as well). By the end of the forecast period, deep-layer SSW flow will return to the region as an amplifying shortwave trough (traveling around the periphery of the ridge to our west) digs southeastward into the Mid-MS/Lower-OH Valley region and a surface low shifts eastward from the Red River Valley into the Arklamiss vicinity. Rich moisture will return to the region as this occurs, with an increase in the coverage of showers/thunderstorms expected beginning late Friday night and continuing through Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Shortly after 6Z, lower MVFR ceilings look to filter into HSV and linger through mid morning. Around 16Z they will begin to lift with VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the period. The lower ceilings don't look to make it to MSL, with VFR conditions in place the whole TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.