textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon, with gusts up to between 20-25 MPH.

- Very cold tonight with overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. A warming trend will then begin on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances of showers Wednesday evening increase to high chances on Thursday, with low chances of thunder late Wednesday night through Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1250 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Another cold day across the TN Valley despite the mostly sunny skies. Current temperatures are hovering around freezing which is about 10 degrees colder than this time yesterday. The winds are not as breezy though, but still gusting 15-25 kts, making it feel more like it's in the teens to lower 20s. These winds will slack as the pressure gradient relaxes this evening. This will help eliminate wind chill concerns tonight, however with mostly clear skies, good radiational cooling will drop lows into the teens to lower 20s. Ensure you dress in layers to stay warm and check in on pets. A warm up is on the way tomorrow, but the morning will still be chilly so be prepared for a cold morning commute and bus stop.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1036 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Northwest flow aloft transitions to be more zonal through midweek as a shortwave trough begins to pivot into the Southeast. At the surface, high pressure over region will gradually shift to the southeast as a low pressure system organizes over the central Plains and approaches the Tennessee Valley Wednesday into Thursday. Dry conditions therefore will give way to increasing chances of showers (30-60%) through Wednesday night, along with a low chance of thunderstorms very late Wednesday into early Thursday morning over northwest Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee. In addition, expect warming temperatures through Wednesday/Wednesday night, with forecast highs reaching the upper 50s to mid 60s and lows only dropping into the lower to mid 50s.

This next storm system will be something to watch late Wednesday night through Thursday (as is discussed further below) due to model bulk shear values between 40-50 knots. Instability will be the main question for this system; but, at this point, instability looks very meager late Wednesday night (less than 200 J/kg of CAPE). In fact, model probabilities of CAPE greater than 100 J/kg are less than 10% over NW AL (coincident with where there is a low chance of thunder in our forecast). Thus, confidence is low that thunderstorms will develop late Wednesday night. However, we will need to watch Thursday closely as NBM probabilities of instability greater than 300 J/kg are between 20-40% along and south of the TN River by Thursday afternoon. Although, there remains uncertainty, as other guidance shows much lower probabilities. Ultimately, stay weather aware and stay tuned for updates as we get closer and finer details become clearer.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that an elongated and rather unimpressive mid-level trough (across the central Plains at the beginning of the period) may undergo gradual amplification as it shifts further east-southeastward Thursday/Thursday night. However, in which portion of the trough this occurs is highly uncertain at this point. Current thinking is that a consolidated surface low will gradually evolve to our north during the day on Thursday, with a gradual increase in the coverage of showers expected throughout the late morning as dewpoints rise into the 55-60F range. At some point Thursday afternoon or evening, a cold front trailing southwestward from the low will cross the forecast area, forcing the development of a more focused axis of moderate- locally heavy showers. In the presence of a very low CAPE but strongly sheared environment (highlighted by a SW low-level jet of 45-55 knots), this may yield an event similar to what we experienced last Thursday night featuring a band of showers capable of producing strong winds. And, as noted in the latest extended range convective outlook from SPC, low probabilities for severe winds may eventually be needed for this event, even in the absence of lightning.

In the wake of the cold front, a slightly cooler/drier airmass will spread across the region on Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds northeastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-Alantic states. Highs will initially remain in the l-m 60s but should return to the u60s-l70s by Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1110 AM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both TAF sites through Tuesday morning. Breezy conditions will continue through this afternoon as well, with sustained northwest winds between 10-15 knots and gusts to between 18-25 knots. However, winds are expected to subside this evening, with light to calm winds overnight along with clear skies. Winds then shift to be southwesterly and increase to between 5-10 knots Tuesday morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.