textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1019 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

- Breezy conditions will continue through late Monday afternoon, with gusts in the 20-25 MPH range.

- Very cold from tonight through Monday night with overnight lows in the upper teens-lower 20s, and wind chills of 5-15F early Monday morning.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with low chances for showers returning late Wednesday (before increasing into the high chance range Thursday).

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

A rapidly deepening mid-level vortex will continue to shift northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast overnight, with a potent shortwave disturbance traveling in the flow around this system predicted to cross our forecast area late this evening before advancing rapidly off the coast of SC by 12Z. In spite of dry profiles aloft, lift related to this disturbance has supported minor saturation of the lower tropospheric profile, resulting in southward expansion of an overcast stratus layer into the eastern portion of the CWFA. Although a few snow flurries could certainly occur beneath this cloud deck (especially given the orientation of low-level streamlines and resultant orographic ascent), base reflectivity data suggests that flurries will be more likely to the immediate north/east of our region. The presence of the clouds may have a positive impact on overnight lows if they should linger through 12Z, but with advection being the main source of cooling tonight, we will continue to advertise lows in the upper teens- lower 20s (slightly warmer near large bodies of water). Due to a contracted pressure gradient between an arctic high across MB/ON and a winter bomb cyclone off the Mid-Atlantic Coast, NNW winds will remain in the 10-15 MPH range (gusting to 20-25 MPH), and this will create morning wind chills of 5-15F.

Present indications are that any lingering low stratus clouds (across eastern portions of the forecast area) will erode late Monday morning, and with only a few cold air stratocu, sunny skies will prevail for the majority of the day. However, NNW winds and cold advection will remain rather strong until a surface ridge builds south-southeastward into eastern AR late tomorrow afternoon, with highs ranging from the lower 30s in elevated terrain to the m-u 30s in the valley.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

North-northwest flow aloft will persist across the TN Valley on Monday night and Tuesday (in the wake of a deep cold core vortex tracking northeastward into the far North Atlantic). In the low- levels, a surface ridge (initially across eastern AR) will develop southeastward into the central Gulf Coast on Monday night, with calm winds and mostly clear skies (aside from a few high clouds) promoting a radiational freeze and lows once again in the upper teens-lower 20s (but with little to no wind). As the weakening anticyclone shifts further southeastward into the eastern Gulf on Tuesday, low-level SSW flow will quickly redevelop and strengthen as a northern stream trough and developing surface low track across the Upper MS Valley. This will mark the beginning of a warming trend, with afternoon temps returning to the u40s-l50s even with a notable increase in cloud cover aloft.

As the intensifying surface low (across the Upper MS Valley) begins to turn east-southeastward over the Great Lakes on Tuesday night, a trailing cold front will advance southeastward into the OH Valley, forcing boundary layer flow to veer to the SW across our region. This will contribute to a notable increase in low- level moisture and return of low stratus clouds Wednesday morning. Over the course of the day, the front will stall along the TN-KY border, in response to a 500-mb trough digging across the northern Rockies and subsequent surface pressure falls over the central High Plains. Continued moistening of the low-level airmass across the Gulf Coast states may support development of light showers, particularly Wednesday night, which is when 850-mb winds will back to SW and begin to strengthen in advance of the mid-level trough to our west. However, the greatest concentration of showers and perhaps some thunderstorms during this timeframe will likely remain in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary to our north. Highs will continue to rapidly recover into the u50s-l60s on Wednesday, as lows rise back into the u40s-l50s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1019 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that an elongated and rather unimpressive mid-level trough (across the central Plains at the beginning of the period) may undergo gradual amplification as it shifts further east-southeastward Thursday/Thursday night. However, in which portion of the trough this occurs is highly uncertain at this point. Current thinking is that a consolidated surface low will gradually evolve to our north during the day on Thursday, with a gradual increase in the coverage of showers expected throughout the late morning as dewpoints rise into the 55-60F range. At some point Thursday afternoon or evening, a cold front trailing southwestward from the low will cross the forecast area, forcing the development of a more focused axis of moderate- locally heavy showers. In the presence of a very low CAPE but strongly sheared environment (highlighted by a SW low-level jet of 45-55 knots), this may yield an event similar to what we experienced last Thursday night featuring a band of showers capable of producing strong winds. And, as noted in the latest extended range convective outlook from SPC, low probabilities for severe winds may eventually be needed for this event, even in the absence of lightning.

In the wake of the cold front, a slightly cooler/drier airmass will spread across the region on Friday and Saturday as high pressure builds northeastward from the southern Plains into the Mid-Alantic states. Highs will initially remain in the l-m 60s but should return to the u60s-l70s by Saturday and Sunday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1141 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR/SKC conditions will largely prevail at the HSV/MSL terminals overnight, with a NNW wind of 12G20 kts. However, due to the proximity of the western edge of a stratus layer, periods of sct- bkn clouds arnd 5 kft may occur at HSV thru 9Z. Otherwise, a few cold air stratocu should redevelop by 15Z Monday, followed by dissipation late in the aftn. Thin, high-lvl clouds may begin to spread across the region tomorrow evening, and this will occur as sfc winds back slightly and diminish into the 5-10 kt range.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.