textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 232 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and hail today.

- A low risk of flash flooding exists through Monday Night.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

We are starting off this morning with some fog that has reduced visibility but has not become dense (0.25 mi). Please take it slow when driving this morning until conditions improve shortly after sunrise.

Beyond the fog, there is a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon into this evening and SPC has placed us in a Marginal Outlook (risk level 1/5). Shortwaves coming out of the Northern Plains and Midwest will deepen a trough today, extending it into the MS Valley and TN Valley. Left over outflow boundaries from the MCS that currently stretched from southern MO to far northern TX could make it in here at well today. Forecast soundings show we will have very little shear in place, PWATS ~2", steep low level lapse rates and CAPE ~2,000 J/kg. With this, storms could become severe and produce damaging winds (downburst potential), hail and heavy rainfall.

Highs will be a tad "cooler" today reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s. However, heat index values will still be 99-105 degrees and we're in a Level 2 Heat Risk (Moderate). Even though there is not a heat product in effect, you still need to practice heat safety as the past few days have been oppressive, and this is not providing any true relief.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper air pattern continues to change through early next week, resulting in a wet and less oppressively hot period. A trough axis will dig southeast through the Great Lakes through Ozarks and Red River Valley on Sunday, slowly deepening into an upper low over the OH Valley with a slow moving trough axis dropping southeast into the TN Valley and mid South Monday into Tuesday. This brings a weak frontal boundary southeast by Tuesday. On Sunday, stronger instability redevelop owing to a marginal risk of a few severe storms in the region (mainly from downbursts and marginal severe hail). These will be primarily diurnally driven again with some forcing aloft with the trough axis. On Monday into Monday night, the risk may evolve into more of a heavy rain threat with repeated bouts of heavy downpours at times. By Tuesday, the forecast is a bit more uncertain with the deterministic models shifting the weak cool front through the area with PWs dropping considerably. We will see what the new NBM provides, but I foresee the PoP trend dropping for Tuesday with time. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 Monday and Tuesday with some deterministic models suggesting lowering dewpoints into the 60s. Another trend we need to monitor in future forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Not much change in the overall pattern through the second half of next week. Sfc high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary during the extended period. This keeps the mid level ridge centered over the Southeast resulting in a warm and humid summertime pattern. The good news is that the ridge is not forecast to be nearly as strong as this past week, keeping the afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The main weather concern during the long term period is low to medium chances (40-60%) for diurnally driven thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected as shear remains weak. However, with PWAT between 1.8-2 inches locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main concerns. This could lead to flash flooding if slow moving storms train over the same location.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 644 AM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

Fog lingering around this morning is not expected to create MVFR VIS, and will improve shortly. Low to medium chances (20-50%) for thunderstorms today with highest probability of impacting terminals between 18-24Z, creating temporary MVFR conditions. Otherwise conditions will be VFR until fog tonight that could produce MVFR CIGS between 09-12Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.