textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- Low to Medium chances (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms persist during the afternoons of Sunday through Tuesday. - Lower chances (20-40%) mid-week are expected to continue into next weekend, with the threat for dangerous heat returning on Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Tonight and Sunday) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 12026

The last of the rain will push out of NE AL in the next hour or so as the front finally moves through. No severe storms are anticipated with the little bit of time it has left with us, however it will move over locations that have already received a a fair amount of rainfall earlier this evening, specifically the eastern portion of Jackson Co and the southeastern portion of Marshall Co. If you encounter any nuisance flooding, do not walk or drive through it. Turn Around, Don't Drown. Flooding is hard to see at night, so be careful.

With light and variable winds, fog formation is expected. However, dense fog development is less certain given some drier air that should advect into the region. Temperatures should drop into the upper 60s to 70 degrees overnight.

The surface and upper low shift southeast over time on Sunday into central Kentucky. This will allow for low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and thunderstorms, especially north of the Tennessee River, on Sunday afternoon. Better shear is well east of the center of the upper low in most guidance so general showers and maybe a few thunderstorms look possible, but nothing severe. Due to cold air advection, cloud cover and precipitation chances, highs should be rather cool, only reaching the lower 80s in most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Sunday night into Monday, the upper low weakens as it shifts more SSE into northern Alabama. This should allow for even more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to occur Monday afternoon (50-70%). Again, due to the weakening nature of this upper low, not really seeing ample shear or instability in place for strong to severe thunderstorm development. However, some training of bands of heavier rainfall and maybe isolated flash flooding could occur given the location of the slowly moving upper low. A bit more morning sunshine could allow highs to climb a tad higher, but still given cloud cover and precipitation, highs should only top out int the upper 70s to around 85 degrees.

As we move into Tuesday, The upper low starts to shift to the east and then NW as an approaching longwave trough axis draws it that direction. This should keep medium to high (40-60%) chances of shower and thunderstorm in the forecast near and east of the I-65 corridor on Tuesday afternoon. Again, shear and instability look too meager for any strong thunderstorm development.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Towards the middle/end of the week the upper low opens into an open wave that merges with a longwave trough axis approaching the Ohio Valley region. This should continue to lower shower and thunderstorm chances into the low to medium chance category.

GFS shows a convective complex developing over the southeast however, this looks a lot like convective feedback at this time. So staying with lower pop Thursday into Friday (20-40%). However, will need to monitor this period for high precipitation chance potential if that materializes. An overall increase in high temperatures are expected Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs should rebound back into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most locations with more sunshine in the morning expected.

Models do seem a bit more convergent on a weak front (longwave trough axis aloft) pushing east into the Tennessee Valley this the weekend. This could create low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Again, shear and instability looks to weak for stronger thunderstorm concerns. Dangerous heat index values over 100 degrees may build back into the region by Friday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 552 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

VFR conditions are still in place at both terminals. Some storms could come within 5 miles of the KHSV terminal through 2Z. Therefore, a predominant VCTS was included at that terminal through then. A tempo group was also included through 2Z for possible -TSRA development that could reduce VSBYS/CIGS between 00Z and 02Z. The forcing mechanism is already east of KMSL, so only included a VCTS through 01Z at that terminal. Then expect VFR conditions with mid/high clouds this evening. The high/thin nature of these clouds and light winds should allow for some fog development towards daybreak on Sunday. Thus, included predominate MVFR VSBYS to account for this after 10Z at both terminals. These VSBYS/CIGS may need to be lowered if widespread denser fog develops.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.