textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

- Cold rain is expected to overspread the region once again by late Monday afternoon, and could be heavy at times from Monday evening through early Tuesday morning. A few snow flurries will be possible as precipitation ends late Tuesday morning.

- An additional round of light precipitation will be possible early Thursday morning, which could occur in the form of sleet. However, chances for widespread rain appear highest during the day on Friday.

- Wind chill temperatures will be in the lower-mid 20s early Monday morning, with freezing fog possible (20-30% chance) in some areas early Wednesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Monday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

In the mid/upper-levels, a pronounced ridge across the eastern North Pacific will sustain broad scale cyclonic flow aloft across much of North America for the duration of the near term period (anchored by a cold core vortex across northern Hudson Bay). Embedded within this flow, a positively-tilted shortwave trough (currently extending from the central Rockies into the Great Basin) is predicted to amplify as it shifts southeastward into the southern Plains by the end of the period and partially phases with a weaker disturbance to its north. As this occurs, westerly mid-level flow of 45-55 knots across the TN Valley will gradually back to southwest, resulting in a broken-overcast coverage of high clouds throughout the night. At the surface, a 3-4 mb gradient will continue across the local forecast area, as the center of a modifying arctic high builds east-southeastward from the northern Plains into the Lower Great Lakes/OH Valley. This will yield a moderately strong NE wind throughout the night and persistent cold advection in the low-levels, with overnight lows in the m-u 20s and attendant wind chills in the l-m 20s.

Over the course of the day on Monday, the surface anticyclone (to our north) will progress further northeastward into the New England vicinity, resulting in a light easterly wind during the morning hours. However, by tomorrow afternoon, south- southwesterly flow at the 850-mb level will increase to 20-30 knots as the amplifying mid-level trough (mentioned above) digs further southeastward into the Great Plains, with elevated warm advection resulting in a broad axis of surface pressure falls extending from the northwest Gulf Coast into the northern Mid- Atlantic states. Sufficient lift and moisture transport in this regime will allow light-moderate rain to quickly spread northeastward across the entire CWFA between 20-24Z, with rapidly descending cloud bases during this timeframe keeping daytime highs in the u40s-l50s. Given the magnitude of warm advection aloft, precipitation appears as if it will be entirely liquid at onset.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Stratiform rain will continue to expand in coverage and intensity across the region on Monday evening, as a mid-level trough (initially across the southern Plains) advances northeastward into the OH Valley. Although the trough will be dampening with time, present indications are that it will acquire a neutral tilt, supporting an increase in the southwesterly low-level jet to 30-40 knots during the 0-6Z timeframe. Furthermore, development of a wave of low pressure across the north-central Gulf may enhance low-level streamline confluence across the local forecast area, resulting in enhancement of precipitation coverage/intensity (although it appears as if the axis of heaviest rain will set up to our southeast). Rain will largely end from NW-to-SE between 6-12Z as the developing surface low tracks northeastward into southeastern GA, allowing cold/dry air into the low-levels to be advected into our region once again as surface winds shift to NNW and strengthen. Temperatures will advectively fall into the l-m 30s as this occurs, but this should occur after precipitation ends. However, forecast soundings later in the morning on Tuesday depict a layer of low-level stratus, which could yield pockets of snow flurries even as rapid subsidence drying occurs in the mid/upper tropospheric column. Due to lingering clouds and cold advection, temperatures will struggle to surpass the u30s-l40s on Tuesday afternoon.

During the period from Tuesday night-Wednesday night, zonal flow aloft will return across the TN Valley, downstream from another positive-tilt shortwave trough migrating across the Four Corners vicinity. Although dry conditions are expected at this point, a new round of stratiform rain may begin to expand northeastward over the Lower MS Valley and central Gulf Coast early Thursday morning, as a surface trough sharpens in this region. Should this regime expand as far northeastward as our forecast area prior to sunrise, forecast soundings appear conducive for sleet given a strengthening warm nose aloft and high potential for evaporative cooling below the warm nose. Finally, as mentioned in previous forecast discussions, conditions appear favorable for the development of freezing fog on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning with expectations of abundant ground moisture and calm winds. With lows in the l-m 20s, any development of fog could be quite impactful and may deposit a thin glaze of ice on bridges and other elevated surfaces.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1105 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Extended range guidance from the most recent suite of global models suggests that a mid-level shortwave trough (initially across the Four Corners) will weaken considerably as it ejects northeastward into the OH Valley by 0Z Saturday. Nevertheless, a similar setup (compared to what we will experience earlier in the week) will unfold, with a developing southwesterly low-level jet downstream from this feature resulting in northeastward expansion of stratiform rain into the region early Friday morning as a weak wave of low pressure evolves across the north-central Gulf. Depending on the onset time of precipitation, ice pellets or light snow may occur initially, but forecast soundings appear supportive of a rapid transition to rain. Periods of light- moderate rain will continue for much of the day, before ending in the east Friday evening, as a new surface low organizes along the Mid-Atlantic Coast.

Beyond Friday, the progression of individual waves within broad scale cyclonic flow across North America becomes increasingly unclear, but latest data indicates a drier pattern becoming established from Saturday into Sunday, with a slight warming trend as well.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1108 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

VFR flight weather conditions will last through most of today. By 21-22Z, ceilings will lower to around 050agl with areas of -RA developing. By 00-01Z, ceilings will lower below 010agl (IFR) as -RA becomes widespread. Visibility may drop to 3-4SM at times as well. These conditions will persist through the end of the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.