textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 339 AM CDT Fri May 29 2026

- A medium-high (50-80%) coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected today. Frequent lightning, heavy downpours, and strong gusty outflow winds will be the main impacts.

- Coverage of showers and storms will begin to decrease on Sunday and Monday (becoming focused across northern/western areas), with dry and mild conditions expected Tuesday-Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 339 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A stationary front was located from NE Arkansas, to across western Tennessee, then SE across northern and eastern Alabama to the Georgia coast. This boundary should slowly move southward through the day. A surface low off of the New England coast had another cold front trailing westward to the upper Mississippi River Valley. This front should move southward across the Tennessee Valley late this afternoon and evening, in part being driven by surface high pressure building southward from the Hudson Bay.

Before the front arrives, a moist and rather unstable airmass was present across the forecast area. Mild or warm night-time conditions prevailed with temperatures only in the lower 70s. Within this environment, numerous outflow boundaries colliding and interacting were in part helping to produce scattered showers. These showers were dotted around the Tennessee Valley, moving to the NE around 10 mph. Some of these showers will become thunderstorms. Local precipitable water amounts now at ~1.5" to 1.7"; should increase to around 1.8" to 2" later today. Showers and thunderstorms in this humid environment will result in very heavy downpours, strong outflow wind gusts, and electrically active storms. The showers that we had Friday evening dumped over 1.5" of rainfall in a short time, and produced ponding of water issues over parts of the area, as well as some rises in area streams, creeks, and rivers. Forecasted coverage at this time does not look great enough to warrant a Flood Watch. Outside of showers, under partly to mostly cloudy skies, high temperatures should rise into the low/mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A slightly drier air mass may finally get advected into the Tennessee Valley Saturday night, giving us a temporary reprieve in convection overnight. However, medium chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms along some residual outflow boundaries are likely to again develop during the afternoon/evening hours on Sunday, before dissipating again at sunset. With a dry airmass being reinforced across the region Sunday night, temperatures may fall into the upper 50s early Monday morning, thanks in part to some partial clearing and radiational cooling. The Tennessee Valley will remain wedged between a trough over the Northeast and a stronger ridge building in over the Mid South. One final shortwave will clip the area on Monday, resulting in some low to medium (20-40%) chances of afternoon convection once again. However, most locations will remain dry and the main story will be more sunshine and warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 932 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

A much awaited pattern change continues to look likely in the long term period, as an upper low slides east off the Atlantic Coast and high pressure expands west over the OH Valley into the Southeast. Northerly flow aloft combined with a drier continental airmass source will keep temperatures on the cooler side of seasonal norms, topping out in the lower 80s each day with lows in the low to mid 60s. Subsidence will keep skies much clearer than we saw this week, with PoPs below 15-20% each day. There will be little change in the overall pattern through the end of the work week, but it does look like moisture will start to increase as low level wind fields veer toward the south as upper ridging begins to build over the Gulf.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1250 AM CDT Sat May 30 2026

An interaction of numerous outflow boundaries from previous convection in an already unstable environment, could result in more showers/thunderstorms development in the TAF. Have stayed dry for the short term, that could change if new convection suddenly forms. There is a decent chances of MVFR fog formation before daybreak, that was put in from 09Z to 14Z. Afterwards, daytime heating and greater destabilization should lead to more showers and storms later this afternoon and in the evening. Very heavy downpours, strong erratic outflow wind gusts, and frequent lightning will accompany this convection, that could reduce CIG/ VSBY to IFR, and at times lower. Overall shower coverage should wane late in the TAF. Light SE winds overnight should become SE-S 4-7kt in the late morning and afternoon, before becoming variable Sat evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.