textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

- A Red Flag Warning will be in effect for all of north Alabama from Saturday 7 AM to 7 PM.

- Colder conditions are expected tonight with low temperatures falling into the mid/upper 30s, with brisk northerly winds of 10-20 mph with stronger gusts.

- Very dry conditions are expected on Saturday, with minimal afternoon relative humidity values of 20-25 percent.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Earlier shower activity along the front has mainly shifted west into Mississippi and NE Arkansas at this hour. Further east, very isolated to scattered very light showers can bee seen on radar sinking southeast still in portions of NW AL. A few locations might have seen up to 0.1 inches of rainfall near the TN/AL border and into portions of NW Alabama earlier this evening. Most locations received just a trace to a few hundreths at best.

Though colder air is behind this front, it has been slow to move southeast behind it. Current temperatures as far north as northern Missouri and Illinois into the southern Ohio Valley area are still in the mid to upper 30s or higher. With winds expected to stay up to at least 10 mph gusting to 20 mph or more, have doubts that actual temperatures will drop as low as previously expected, even with clearing towards daybreak. Thus, raised low temperatures a bit into the 36 to 42 degree range. Some locations in southern middle Tennessee and NE Alabama could still drop into the mid to upper 30s around daybreak.

Models still show a 40 knot 925 mb jet developing towards daybreak. However, the short term soundings indicate that we may decouple. This would likely keep us from mixing down the strongest winds/wind gusts (that could enable reaching Wind Advisory criteria) until we get some heating after daybreak. Winds will likely remain around 10 mph with some higher gusts regardless overnight due to the decoupling. These winds and wind gusts will likely increase a bit shortly after daybreak to between 25 and 30 mph before decreasing significantly after noon to between 15 and 20 mph.

Model guidance brings 925 temperatures with abundant sunshine and some warm air advection from the east during the afternoon to between 7 and 11 degrees. This should allow high temperatures to reach the 60 to 65 degree range this afternoon.

Strong advection of drier air towards daybreak and morning mixing will likely allow dewpoints to drop from between 25 and 30 degrees around daybreak into the 15 to 20 degree range in the afternoon. This will drop RH values to or below 25 percent between 10 AM and noon, before bottoming out between 15 and 20 percent in the mid afternoon hours. This will likely create dangerous fire spread and potential conditions for at least part of the morning hours, maybe into the early afternoon.Thus, A Red Flag Warning will continue to be in effect from 7 AM on Saturday through 7 PM.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Models should low level southeasterly flow developing Saturday night. This should bring more moist air back into the region into Sunday. Lows as a result should be warmer Saturday night, only dropping into the 38 to 45 degree range mainly.

Overall zonal flow aloft becomes entrenched over the CONUS during the day on Sunday and remains in place through Monday. Overall drier and warmer temperatures are expected with highs climbing into the upper 60s/lower 70s on Sunday and into the mid to upper 70s on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

Monday night into Tuesday an upper high builds just off the southeastern CONUS, while a longwave trough axis develops over the western Great Lakes area that extends southwest into Missouri and Kansas. Moist low level flow from the Gulf of America will help to bring much more moist air into the region. As a few weak shortwaves more around the western edge of the upper level ridge off the southeast coast, some isolated to widely scattered showers could develop Tuesday afternoon.

As the longwave trough axis slides east or southeast and weakens, various disturbances move ENE through it and bring a more unsettled weather period to the area. This is a much needed rainy pattern it looks like on and off through the end of next week. Right now, most of this activity seems to lack strong enough shear to be worried about any severe thunderstorm potential. However, general thunderstorm activity is expected at times, especially Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Our warmest day looks to be Tuesday (highs in the lower 80s). However, cloud cover and more persistent rainfall chances will likely keep highs in the 70s mostly Wednesday through Friday of next week. Some heavy rainfall could develop during this period.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly mid/high level clouds are being generated as an elevated front moves across the area. Spotty -RA/DZ can be observed on local/regional radars but is not expected to impact TAF sites as the front drifts SWRD. Otherwise, a narrow band of low clouds with MVFR cigs is impacting KHSV, but is not expected to persist past 07Z. This same band could impact KMSL and an amendment to TAFs could be necessary there briefly. Local profilers are indicating increasing and lowering winds/shear (currently ~3kft), and forecasts support this with the development of LLWS around 2kft around 09-10Z. This may persist for about ~4 hours. Wind gusts are expected to slowly decrease through the day.

CLIMATE

Issued at 325 PM CDT Fri Mar 27 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included Northwest AL in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for April 4th-5th. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 1-3 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Red Flag Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-014-016.

TN...None.