textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1014 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

- High chances for rain showers and low chances of thunderstorms are forecast late Wednesday night through Thursday as a cold front pushes through the area.

-Warming trend expected this weekend with next chance of rain early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 226 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Current 2 AM satellite shows a broad area of mid level clouds filtering in to the TN Valley from the NW. These clouds can be traced back to a shortwave currently in the western CONUS pushing its way east. The mid level clouds paired with SW surface flow promoting WAA will mitigate our overnight low with 6 AM temps around 15-20 degrees warmer than Tuesday morning in the high 30s to low 40s.

Through the day, cloud cover will continue to filter in from the NW ahead of the approaching shortwave. At the surface, sandwiched between approaching low pressure to our west and high pressure to our east, strong SW flow will remain. This will promote continued WAA and moisture advection, returning our temperatures to the low 60s and our dew points to the low 50s by the end of the day. As the low level profile moistens through the day, rain chances will gradually increase supported by weak isentropic lift ahead of the shortwave and associated cold front. Virga and very light showers may arrive before noon with rain chances increasing to around 30-50% by 6PM, with best chances north of the TN River. The overcast conditions during the day will limit destabilization so no thunder is currently forecast with any showers that arrive this afternoon and evening.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

The aforementioned shortwave and its associated cold front will approach the region from the west Wednesday night, with showers gradually overspreading the area from northwest to southeast. As a result, PoPs will increase to 50-80% by the early morning hours on Thursday. Very high (80-90%) chances for showers a low chance of thunderstorms are then forecast during the day on Thursday as the front slowly pushes into the region. Favorable bulk shear values of 40-55 kts will support some organized convection, especially during the afternoon hours. However, guidance continues to indicate that instability values will be extremely meager, with mean SBCAPE values of around 50-150 J/kg. Factoring this in along with the poor lapse rates, any storms that do develop should be pretty limited in magnitude. However, given the aforementioned shear profile, a couple of locally strong storms might not be out of the question. Convection will wane Thursday evening into Thursday night, as a drier air moves in by Friday. However, don't expect any big changes temperature-wise as we return in a fairly zonal pattern aloft. Thus, highs on Friday will peak in the low to mid 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1014 PM CST Tue Feb 24 2026

Post-frontal, dry conditions are forecast to dominate the weekend with highs rising into the 70s and overnight lows in the 40s. These temperatures are around 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. As an upper level shortwave approaches from the west early next week, low rain chances (15-30%) return Sunday night through Tuesday. Due to some disagreement in timing, have continued with blended guidance for now. If you have outdoor interests early next week, be sure to stay tuned for updates as we approach the weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 446 AM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

Low clouds will continue to filter in throughout the day with MVFR ceiling in place shortly after sunrise around 15Z. MVFR ceilings will remain through the TAF period with VCSH arriving from the NNW around 00Z. From 00Z forward, rain chances will steadily increase with low MVFR to IFR ceilings in place through the night. Steady rain will be in place by the end of the period. We will be monitoring the presence of wind shear tomorrow night. Confidence is currently too low to include.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.