textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

- Mainly low to medium (30-70%) for showers and thunderstorms are expect on Thursday, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday afternoons.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms exists area-wide on Friday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Friday. Heat index values should drop into the 95 to 100 degree range Saturday and Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Most of the shower and scattered thunderstorms that impacted the area earlier have pushed east into NW GA at this time. However, isolated to scattered showers continue to develop along a boundary that stretches WSW from this activity across Marshall county to just east of the Columbus, MS radar. 1500 J/KG to 3000 J/KG seem to still be in place near and south of this boundary.

Earlier shower and thunderstorm activity that formed along an outflow boundary moving southeast from NW Tennessee has dissipated with the loss of daytime heating.

Clear skies are currently in place across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures are currently in the lower 70s to around 80 degrees in most locations. Dewpoint depressions are already 1 to 5 degrees in many locations. Expect patchy to areas of fog to form quickly this evening, especially near and west of the I-65 corridor. If we see dense fog that lasts very long or is widespread in nature will depend on whether cloud cover develops and how quickly it does tonight.

Based on several mesoscale models, think that we will see some patchy fog to dense fog at times this evening, before cloud cover and mixing from a trough axis aloft that moves from NW Mississippi over the area. This should break up cloud cover and develops some shower and scattered thunderstorms development over the area after 2 or 3 AM. It is not out of the question we will need a Dense Fog Advisory for a portion of the area between now and 1 or 2 AM, before cloud cover develops and stronger forcing moves more directly over the area. However, confidence is still low at this time one will be needed.

Little shear is shown as the trough axis moves into NW Alabama overnight into the daybreak hours on Thursday. However, based on current SBCAPE seen in analysis, think some instability will still be available to tap into. So, maintained a low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms, mainly producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning towards daybreak on Thursday. This activity will likely push east and just south of the area after 1 PM. However, a low to medium (30-50%) of scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely linger into the afternoon hours on Thursday. Again, instability looks too meager for any severe microbursts, but heavy rainfall and frequent lightning will be the main threats. It is expected to be cooler on Thursday with highs only in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Friday night) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Expect activity to dissipate sooner Thursday evening. However, another shortwave looks to push ESE through flow aloft overnight producing another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms to push into southern middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama through daybreak on Friday. Low temperatures with cloud cover and a focusing mechanism for low level moisture will likely only drop into the lower 70s.

The surface boundary associated with this upper level disturbance seems to linger over northern Alabama during the day on Friday. This would likely keep fairly high chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast(40-80%) into the early afternoon hours on Friday, before decreasing from west to east. SBCAPE climbs higher to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in most guidance. Between the better instability, lift, and some soundings showing theta E difference values increasing again to around 30 again, severe microbursts seem possible. Again the early arrival of precipitation around daybreak and continued development in the afternoon will keep highs in the mid 80s to around 91 degrees.

Models seem to be set on this pattern of another shortwave moving southeast into northern AL and NE Tennessee late Friday night into very early Saturday morning as well. This should be ample ingredients for showers and thunderstorms to develop. Temperatures when you wake up should again be in the lower 70s. A medium to high (30-70%) chance of showers and thunderstorms is expected during this period. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours will be the main threats with any thunderstorms through daybreak on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately.

Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1148 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

Clear skies are still in place at both terminals with dewpoint depressions at zero degrees. Given that clear skies and calm winds will likely continue for a few more hours, included MVFR VSBY reductions as both terminals due to fog development (06Z to 08Z at KMSL and 06Z to 10Z at KHSV). Expect -SHRA and -TSRA to develop over both terminals (~ 8Z at KMSL and ~10Z at KHSV). This should keep dense fog from forming, but keep MVFR VSBYS in place at both terminals at times through 12Z at KMSL and 14Z at KHSV. Expect MVFR CIGS to develop around 13Z at KMSL and 15Z at KHSV. A prob30 for TSRA and MVFR VSBYS was included at both terminals later in the afternoon hours.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.