textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

- A few strong-marginally severe thunderstorms may occur from Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Gusty-locally damaging winds and lightning will be the main threats.

- We are monitoring for the potential of severe weather this weekend; however, no severe weather is currently forecast.

- There is a low chance of severe weather next Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 155 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

There have been no changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning, as sunny skies and a light southwest breeze suggest that temperatures are on track to reach forecasted highs in the u70s-l80s for most valley locations. Clear skies and dry conditions will continue overnight, with temperatures reaching the l-m 50s by sunrise.

Previous Discussion: An amplified ridge at the 500-mb level will translate eastward from the central Plains into the MS Valley over the course of the near term period, with light (5-15 knot) NW flow aloft expected to persist across the TN Valley. In the low-levels, our forecast area will remain along the western rim of a weakening surface high situated off the southeastern Atlantic Coast, with light-moderate SW flow today backing to the south overnight as low pressure migrates northeastward from eastern MT into southern SK/MB in response to the northeastward ejection of an intensifying shortwave trough out of the Great Basin. Although a few showers may occur this afternoon across southern portions of MS/AL/GA (where boundary layer dewpoints and CAPE will be a bit higher), we expect a continuation of dry weather conditions locally, with highs ranging from the m70s in elevated terrain to l-m 80s in the valley. Overnight, a few light showers may occur within a region of strengthening low-level moisture advection from the Arklamiss northward into the Mid-South vicinity, but clear skies and dry conditions will prevail for our CWFA, with lows once again in the l-m 50s (and brief development of patchy mist/fog possible in normally fog-prone locations between 10-13Z).

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1103 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Short range model consensus suggests that a narrow but amplified mid-level ridge will remain nearly stationary from OT southward into the Gulf Coast states from Thursday into Friday, with light west-northwest flow aloft expected to occur across our region beneath the base of the ridge. Well to our northwest, a lead vort max lifting northeastward from the northern High Plains will phase with a stronger wave digging south-southeastward across the Canadian Rockies to form a large mid/upper-level vortex (that will remain nearly stationary across southern SK for much of the period). As the initially dominant surface low related to this system begins to occlude across the southern Canadian Prairie provinces, a cold front will shift slowly southeastward through the northern/central Plains and Upper MS Valley on Thursday, with development of two additional frontal waves expected to occur across the OK and northern TX Panhandle region as well as across central IA. Although a modest increase in southerly low-level flow locally will lead to dewpoints rising into the 50s, isolated afternoon showers tomorrow should once again be confined to southern portions of the Gulf Coast states with only a 5-10% probability of development as far north as the TN Valley. High temperatures will be similar to values observed today, but overnight lows will rise a few degrees into the m-u 50s on Friday morning.

During the timeframe from Friday into Friday night, the frontal wave across IA will travel east-northeastward into the Lower Great Lakes and weaken, as the southernmost wave decays across eastern TX. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms across parts of MO/IL will weaken during the late morning hours as they shift eastward off the slow-moving cold front, but additional convection is likely to develop both in the vicinity of the front and mesoscale outflow boundaries (from IL southwestward into AR) during the afternoon, perhaps organizing into a couple of small MCSs by early Friday evening. It remains unclear which (if either) convective system could impact our forecast area Friday night/early Saturday morning, but regardless chances for thunderstorms will begin to increase very late in the evening and continue through the overnight hours (largely driven by outflow boundaries and modest strengthening of the southwesterly low-level jet to 20-25 knots). Forecast soundings indicate an environment of weak deep-layer shear and poor lapse rates (which will likely limit CAPE to 250-500 J/kg even as dewpoints rise into the lower 60s), and with a decent chance that updrafts will be slightly elevated, this would favor lightning and heavy downpours as the primary concerns. However, should we be clipped by one of the small storm clusters, brief strong wind gusts would also become a risk.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2026

An active pattern will overtake the long term period with much needed rainfall expected throughout the Tennessee Valley. Through the weekend, an upper level low is forecast to stall in Central Canada, placing the TN Valley in mostly zonal flow with several shortwaves forecast to push into the area from the west. As a result, medium to high chances (60-80%) of showers/thunderstorms are forecast to impact the area Saturday before decreasing to low chances (30% or less) Sunday. While severe weather is not forecast with these thunderstorms, there is a low chance some could become strong on Saturday afternoon as ~500-900 J/kg of CAPE influences the area with minimal shear and weak lapse rates. However, at this time, it looks like the main threat will be heavier rainfall rates causing minimal ponding in areas of poor drainage. Another thing to note is that the heavier bands of rainfall have continued to trend earlier- reaching the area very late Friday night into Saturday morning followed by periods of dry weather through the day between showers.

The next feature of interest will be an upper level trough and subsequent sfc low forming in the southwest U.S. on Sunday before beginning to push eastward through the Ohio River Valley. As this occurs, the TN Valley will be in a potentially favorable area for a low chance of severe storms Monday into Tuesday- during which SPC has outlooked our entire forecast area in a low risk (15%) for severe weather. There continues to be uncertainty in official timing and threats due to this event being several days out and continued model disagreement on the depth of the trough/coverage of severe storms. However, we encourage everyone to remain updated on the latest forecast as we progress through the weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period at both terminals.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.