textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 928 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms from northwest to southeast late this afternoon into tonight. A few stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds are expected.

- Rain amounts of 0.5-0.9 inches expected, with a few locations receiving over 1.0 inch.

- Temperatures fall to ~5 degrees below normal on Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

Southerly flow and moisture advection have spread lower clouds over much of north AL and southern middle TN. The clouds should lift and scatter by afternoon allowing for more ample heating and highs in the lower to middle 80s. A long-lived and weakening MCS continues to press slowly east into the lower OH and TN valley through AR and northeast TX this morning. Peak heating in advance of the system is forecast to reinvigorate existing convection and produce additional segments or clusters of convection ahead of this line through the day. A few of thunderstorms may develop or arrive in far northwest AL by late afternoon. Other clusters develop in central or northern MS which arrive early this evening. The main hazards from these thunderstorms will be brief gusty winds and heavy downpours. The threat of severe weather appears to be quite low given deep layer bulk shear values of only 25-30kt. Surface based CAPE values of 1000-1500 j/kg develop over southwest TN and northwest MS this afternoon. However, these values drop off significantly as they thunderstorms arrive this evening after loss of daytime heating. Rainfall amounts of 0.5-0.9 inches will be common, but given PWs of 1.5+ inches, heavier amounts over 1 inch are expected in some areas, especially if trailing stratiform rain persists into the overnight hours. Temperatures should plummet into the upper 40s to lower 50s by late tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 928 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

High pressure will drop into the southern Plains east into the OH and TN valleys on Sunday bringing much cooler and drier weather to the region. Afternoon highs will only be in the middle to upper 60s, so about 5 or so degrees below normal. West-northwest flow at 5h persists through Monday with another sunny and cool day expected. After lows around 40 or in the lower 40s, highs will reach the middle 60s to around 70.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 931 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

After an upper shortwave moves over the Ohio Valley Monday night, upper ridging will take hold over the Southeast Tuesday into Wednesday. By late week, this ridge is expected to build and push towards the east coast. This then leaves the Tennessee Valley in southwest flow aloft. At the surface, high pressure will largely dominate, but a cold front looks to drop into the region on Tuesday. Not much moisture is associated with this feature at the moment, so it's more likely to bring an increase in some cloud cover and winds through midweek. At this point, these winds are expected to be more breezy versus reaching Wind Advisory levels. Another high pressure system is then slated to drop into the eastern CONUS from south- central Canada behind the front. This feature is expected to maintain its influence over the Appalachians, stretching southwest into Mississippi and Alabama, through Friday.

Ultimately, little to no rain chances are forecast through the week. The main story will be the cooler temperatures to start the week due to cold air advection from the northwest. Highs are expected to top out in the mid to upper 60s on Tuesday, with lows in the 40s both Monday and Tuesday nights. We are still keeping an eye on temperature trends for Tuesday night because, if lows actually dip into the mid to upper 30s in some spots, frost may become a concern (especially for sensitive vegetation). Trends in the blended guidance have been a bit back and forth whether it will get that cold. But, looking probabilistically, there is currently a low to medium chance (10-40%) of temperatures dropping below 40 degrees, especially for our Tennessee counties. Again, this will be monitored; however, as we've been discussing these past couple of days, it's not quite time to put away the cold weather clothes just yet. Keep that jacket handy early next week! Fortunately or unfortunately, depending on your preference for warmer or cooler weather, the cooler temperatures won't last long. Expecting temperatures to then moderate and gradually warm back into the 70s to around 80 degrees by Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KMSL based on current satellite imagery and progs through morning hours. MVFR CIGS moving northeast will impact the KHSV terminal this morning roughly from around 13Z through 19Z before lifting and becoming VFR. VFR CIGS should push into KMSL around that time. A tempo group was included for TSRA period of MVFR CIGS or VSBYS between 21Z and 24Z at KMSL and 22Z to 24Z at KHSV. Expect predominant MVFR CIGS or VSBYS after after 00Z at KMSL and after 4Z or 5Z at KHSV. IFR may need to be added closer to development of this convection. MVFR CIGS or VSBYS should linger towards daybreak at both terminals.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.