textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

- Low chances (15-30%) of showers and thunderstorms will linger through around midnight before dissipating.

- Medium to high chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening, with a low risk of a few strong to severe storms. Damaging winds and heavy rain are the main threats.

- Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

A very weak frontal boundary continues to snake it way from the Mid-Atlantic area southwest through the Carolinas and through northern Georgia westward into central Mississippi. This has been the focus for isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm development earlier this afternoon into the evening hours. Most of this convection has dissipated with the loss of daytime heating. However, some spotty areas of weak convergence and ample elevated instability around 500 J/KG and 2-6 km lapse rates around 7.5 degrees/km are allowing for a few storms to still develop. Luckily, wind shear is still almost non-existent (less than 20 knots). So any storms that develop are expected to be mainly garden variety producing frequent lightning and heavy downpours. Mainly clear skies are in place and expect this to continue, expect where isolated to scattered storms develop, primarily east of the I-65 corridor.

Temperatures are in the lower to mid 60s with dewpoint depressions of 3 to 6 degrees in many locations. The exceptions to this are in portions of NE Alabama, where dewpoints depressions are already at 0 to 3 degrees in some locations including Albertville and near the Scottsboro area in Alabama. Even though winds should pick up after midnight around 2 AM from west to east, winds may be calm until then east of the I-65 corridor. This may allow some patchy fog to develop, mainly in the valley areas of NE Alabama. Expect this brief patchy fog potential to go away as winds pick up after midnight. Models develop a low stratus deck south of the Tennessee River around 2 or 3 AM and move that area of cloud cover northward towards daybreak. This will likely keep lows pretty warm, primarily only dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s by daybreak on Saturday.

Ensemble guidance generally moves the weak front currently over central/northern Alabama northeast Saturday morning. Cloud cover should lessen near and east of the I-65 corridor as the warm front pushes northeast. The exception will be in northwestern Alabama as convergence ahead of an approaching cold front begins to move into those areas in the morning. This will likely produce better instability near and east of the I-65 corridor during the late morning into the early afternoon hours. Newer guidance is a bit slower moving the stronger forcing ahead of the front into NW Alabama, mainly between 1 and 3 PM. However with dewpoints already in the 60 to 65 degree range and upstream, despite cloudy conditions expected further west, instability will likely still climb to between 1000 and 1500 J/KG by noon, maybe higher east of the I-65 corridor. 0-6 km shear is a bit stronger overall in new guidance (widespread 30-45 kt values) by the mid-afternoon hours ahead of the approaching front. Helicity is not great, but may increase to 200 m2/s2 by the late afternoon evening hours ahead of the front. Given the strong forcing and strong 0-6 km shear forecast, some strong to severe storms look possible around 3 PM in NW AL and should spread east into the evening hours. Better shear and instability will likely be more to our WSW, keeping the better coverage of severe storms west of the area. However, if low clouds don't materialize towards daybreak, then instability may be higher in the afternoon than currently expected. Temperatures should still climb into the 75 to 80 degree range east of I-65, but are expected to be tempered a bit by more widespread cloud cover in NW Alabama. Given the parameters severe straight line winds are expected with strongest thunderstorm activity. A brief tornado cannot be ruled out, but confidence is very low in that occurring.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The front continues to slow down in newest guidance as it moves southeast into northern Alabama Saturday night into early Sunday morning. PWATS (1.4 to 1.5 inches) remain high and very strong deep forcing is shown with ensemble guidance as a wave moves northeast along the slowed frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall between 1 and 2 inches is expected on top of earlier rainfall after midnight on Saturday through daybreak on Sunday. Guidance doesn't develop much surface based instability as this occurs, but maybe just enough 50 to 200 J/KG. Shear remains strong during this period as well with helicity values between 100 and 200 m2/s2. Thus, can't rule out a very low threat of severe weather (again damaging winds or a very brief tornado) until after the front finally pushes southeast of the area by 9 AM.

Cloud cover and scattered rain showers will likely linger into the afternoon hours south of the Tennessee River. but forcing looks too weak for additional thunderstorm activity. Highs will be cooler only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Guidance moves the front slowly northward Sunday night into Monday into central or northern Alabama as a disturbance moves east through zonal flow aloft along it . Where exactly the front ends up will be a big factor in instability and where showers and thunderstorms are concentrated in the southeast. However, at least scattered to possibly more numerous convection looks to redevelop over the area during the morning and early afternoon hours. Shear will be borderline, but possibly just enough to support severe thunderstorms. Helicity looks very weak, but lapse rates are not bad. Some damaging winds look possible, but tornadoes are not expected at this time.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 955 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

This front is expected to continue to move northward Monday night into Tuesday. The more unusual trend of the warm air winning out continues early next week, as the frontal boundary heads northward. With warmer air returning and despite good rain chances, lows then should mainly range in the lower 60s. As the upper disturbance departs, lower chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. With decent warm air advection, high temperatures Tuesday should rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Lower end rain chances are expected Tue night mainly over our northern and western area. Otherwise the warmer trend will continue, with lows in the low/mid 60s.

At the moment; an amplified upper level flow pattern (troughing west and ridging east) will become more of a split-flow pattern as we go into the weekend and early next week. A disturbance over the Great Basin within the mean trough will move southward and become part of a cut-off upper low set to form over the Baja this weekend. This low eventually early next week will rejoin the main northern stream, and get ejected eastward across the Mid South to the Appalachians in the later portion of next week.

Another surface low should form over the southern Great Plains on Wednesday and head to the northeast along the boundary that moved north of here on Mon/Tue. This next system will bring additional scattered to numerous showers to the area Wed/Wed night. A few thunderstorms could be mixed with more predominate showers Wed night. This front appears will move to the SE across the area Wed night into Thursday. Showers with this system should taper off from NW to SE during the day Thu. Dry conditions should return Thu night into Friday.

One more warm day Wed with highs inching back to around 80. This time, the warm temperatures will be coming to and end Wed night, as colder Canadian air filters in from the NW. Lows Thu night will chill into the 40s. A return to more seasonable conditions are expected on Thu with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Chilly conditions return Thu night with lows in the mid/upper 30s to around 40. A bit milder Friday the 13th with highs into the mid/upper 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1124 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

VFR conditions are expected as winds continue to increase to between 5 and 10 kts overnight. This should keep fog at bay, especially as MVFR CIGS develop around 12Z at both terminals. Expect MVFR CIGS to continue through the day ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. A tempo for -TSRA was included between 18Z and 22Z at KMSL and between 20Z and 24Z at KHSV. This might need to be pushed later in time with next issuance. More widespread rainfall and possible thunderstorms are expected after 00Z. For now left out predominant thunderstorms after 00Z, due to varied timing with models.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.