textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

- Southeasterly winds of 15-25 MPH are expected on Tuesday, and a few showers may spread northward into the region late in the afternoon.

- The coverage of showers (and some thunderstorms) will increase on Tuesday evening before becoming widespread Wednesday morning. Locally heavy rainfall may result in flooding during this period (particularly across northwest AL, where several inches of rain were observed Sunday morning).

- A second episode of showers (and some thunderstorms) may occur with the passage of a cold front Thursday night/Friday.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Tuesday) Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

In the mid/upper-levels, light WNW flow aloft across the TN Valley will back to the SSW and strengthen to 25-35 knots by the end of the period as a southern stream shortwave trough (currently emerging over the southern High Plains) ejects northeastward into the MO Valley. In response to the slight negative tilt that this feature will assume with time, a SSE low-level jet will increase to 25-30 knots overnight, before veering slightly to the SSW and continuing to strengthen during the day tomorrow. In the low- levels, a 4-5 mb pressure gradient will be maintained throughout the period, between a high centered off the Mid-Atlantic Coast and a developing frontal wave across southwestern KS (which will lift northeastward into the eastern IA by 0Z Wednesday). This will result in elevated SE winds overnight, before increasing into the 15-25 MPH range after sunrise.

Well to our west, convection will continue to spread eastward across the southern Plains into western parts of the Mid/Lower-MS Valley in conjunction with a dryline extending southward from the developing frontal wave/surface low. Although the leading edge of this activity should only reach MS River by 0Z Wednesday, a subtle low-level confluence axis (marking the interface of the high to our east and low to our northwest) may initiate a few showers to our south tomorrow afternoon that would subsequently spread northward into our CWFA prior to sunset. Due to elevated winds, overnight lows will be milder and in the m-u 50s tonight. Although a broken-overcast stratus layer will likely evolve shortly after 12Z, low-level WAA will compensate for the lack of insolation, bringing highs into the m-u 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Latest short range model data suggests that a mid-level shortwave trough (initially located across the MO Valley) will deepen into a closed cyclone as it advances further northeastward into the western Great Lakes by 12Z Thursday. As this occurs, the related surface low will also intensify as it lifts northward across the Upper MS Valley, and the SSW low-level jet will likely reach peak intensity (40-50 knots) from tomorrow night-early Wednesday morning. Large scale ascent (as a result of strengthening and vertically veering wind profiles) will be maximized tomorrow night, and this should support a gradual increase in the coverage and intensity of initially weak convection in the vicinity of a low-level confluence axis during the evening hours tomorrow.

As this activity expands and spreads further northeastward, a more focused band of increasingly outflow-driven showers and thunderstorms will be approaching our region from the west and should enter the CWFA around or shortly after 6Z, before its forward speed decelerates in the 6-12Z timeframe. Although forecast soundings suggest that CAPE will slowly increase to 250-500 J/kg as dewpoints rise into the m60s during the overnight hours, forecast soundings indicate that the effective parcel inflow layer will remain slightly elevated. However, should this change, hodograph length/curvature in the lowest 3km would support a risk for mesocyclone development (particularly in the vicinity of the more focused band of convection across the west). Otherwise, the risk for flooding/flash flooding is expected to quickly increase early Wednesday morning (especially across northwest AL, where several inches of rain fell Sunday morning).

During the day on Wednesday, the band of outflow-driven convection will continue to spread slowly eastward across our forecast area, but should progressively diminish in intensity as the low-level jet veers and weakens. Although precipitation will end for most of the region by 0Z Thursday, there is some concern that a weak cold front (attached to an occluding low over the western Great Lakes) will stall before exiting our southeastern zones, perhaps leading to a continuation of clouds and a few showers in this region both Wednesday night and Thursday. By Thursday night, deep layer ascent will increase once again as a secondary mid-level wave tracks eastward from the southern Plains into the OH Valley (in the flow around a closed low to its northeast). If northward moisture transport is sufficient, this setup could lead to additional showers and thunderstorms prior to daybreak Friday. Regarding temperatures, highs will fall back into the l-m 70s Wednesday/Thursday, as overnight lows drop into the u40s-l50s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We will end the work week with the passage of an upper wave early Friday morning, with some uncertainty as to how much moisture advection will happen ahead of this system. The GFS is a bit more aggressive with moisture and would result in some light rain during the early hours on Friday, while the ECMWF is drier and would likely only result in increasing clouds. For this reason we will stick with blended guidance capping PoPs near 20%, and any rainfall that does occur should begin clearing by late Friday morning. Dry weather will follow as high pressure spreads southward from the Midwest in the wake of a cold front. High temps will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s behind this front with northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We should also see clouds thinning through the morning hours on Friday resulting in pleasant fall conditions by Friday afternoon.

Overall the weekend looks nice as zonal flow persists aloft. High temps will reach the low to mid 60s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s. In fact, we will likely see our first frost of the season in some locations, especially those north of the TN River and in the higher terrain where current forecast temperatures drop to 32 degrees. This will be a trend to watch over the coming days, but there are still fairly significant differences regarding the upper and mid level patterns in long term guidance. Models do agree that by early next week upper flow will shift to the north as a stronger trough axis shifts east over the area, reinforcing high pressure and keeping dry, near seasonable conditions over the TN Valley.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1057 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening and through the early morning hours on Tuesday, with a SE wind of 8G16kt and increase in the coverage of stratocu expected thru sunrise. As the low-level jet veers to SSW later tomorrow morning (and SE sfc flow strengthens to 12G22kt), a lower stratus deck will quickly become established by 14Z and cigs should remain in the MVFR range for the rest of the day. Although most of the forecast area will remain dry thru 0Z Wednesday, a narrow axis of weak convection may develop northwestward into the region late tomorrow aftn, but should not have significant impacts at either terminal. However, coverage of SHRA (and some TSRA) will increase throughout the evening, with development of IFR cigs expected during this timeframe, as well.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.