textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- There is a low risk of excessive rainfall (with a low threat for localized flash flooding) overnight, with ponding of water on roadways possible.

- Cooler weather will occur Thursday through Friday.

- Better chances may this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Earlier rain and thunderstorm activity have worked over the atmosphere pretty well. Surface based instability as a result has been pushed south of the area into central and southern Alabama. Further north there may be extremely meager elevated instability between 100 AND 500 J/KG into portions of NE Alabama. Shear is still high over the area, but due to the elevated and very weak nature of instability, not expecting many thunderstorms, but a few isolated to scattered ones cannot be ruled out. Mainly some inter-cloud lightning would be the result and some briefly heavier downpours. Overall, not expecting this rainfall to amount to much more than an additional one half to three quarters of an inch of rainfall. This should not cause additional flash flooding or river flooding concerns. The one exception may be Indian Creek in the Madison area, but given its current downward trend, not expecting it to climb again towards action stage with the additional rainfall.

As the upper level trough axis finally pushes southeast through the area, it will drag cooler and drier air into the area. This looks like it won't occur until around 5 AM in NW Alabama and closer to 7 AM in NE Alabama. Temperatures will drop, but be tempered by the lingering clouds and late arrival of the upper level trough axis towards daybreak on Thursday.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

When you wake up, temperatures should be in the upper 40s to around 55 degrees. Strong cold air advection is forecast on Thursday. In addition, mostly cloudy conditions will be in place in the early morning hours before clearing. Despite good insolation after that, highs will be hard pressed to reach the mid 60s to around 70 degrees in the afternoon.

Most guidance has mid/high cloud cover building back into the area from the west and south Thursday night into Friday. This is in part due the front to our south slowly edging northward and a new trough axis quickly moving south through NW flow into the Ohio Valley sw into eastern Texas.

However, most guidance does not edge the frontal boundary much further north than southern into southern or central Alabama and Georgia. At the same time, it keeps the better moisture convergence and forcing with the approaching longwave trough axis much further north of the area closer to the southern Ohio Valley. That being said, models do produce some isolated to scattered QPF over portions of northern Alabama Saturday afternoon. There is some surface based instability, but shear is very weak over the area. So a few thunderstorms will be possible, but do not look very strong right now.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Deeper moisture interacting with passing upper level support, will bring low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday night. Convection should become more numerous in coverage as we go into Sunday, when the best rain chances will be realized. Overall, storm strength looks to be "general" in intensity, with the usual gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Forecast CAPE values on Sunday range from ~500 to 1500 J/kg, with 0-3 km helicity generally less than 100 m/s. Precipitable water amounts however do increase to 1.5 to 1.6 inches; thus excessive bouts of rainfall cannot be ruled out with the heaviest convection Sunday.

The passage of a cold front, and high pressure building from the NW will bring shower activity to an end Sunday night. Dry weather will return Monday. Yes, eastern Canada upper troughing will remain in place, with a ridge west / trough east pattern becoming more established over the Lower-48 next week. Far as temperatures, a stout southerly flow will produce seasonably mild conditions Sunday, with highs to around 80. After the front passes, cooler conditions return Monday with highs nearly 10 degrees cooler, only rising to the lower 70s. Chilly conditions are expected Monday night with lows in the mid 40s. Under generally sunny skies, a bit warmer Tuesday with highs into the mid 70s. Even warmer Wednesday with highs to around 80 degrees.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 654 PM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A cold front has moved south of the KMSL and KHSV terminals, located from near KCHA to south of K4A9 and KBFZ, and south of the MS Golden Triangle. The heaviest and strongest convection was in progress near and south of the front, a few areas of lighter rain was occurring north of the front from AR to western WV/VA. Per recent model output, light post frontal periods of light rain could occur into overnight. The rain could be accompanied by brief VSBY/CIG reductions. Conditions should otherwise improve as we go towards daybreak Thu. VFR conditions should return Thu morning. Northerly winds of 5-10kt tonight and early Thu morning should back to the NW in the late morning and afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.