textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Issued at 311 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

- Low to medium chances (20-60%) of showers and thunderstorms return tonight.

- Medium to high chances (50-90%) of showers and thunderstorms then persist each day from Wednesday through much of the weekend. No severe weather is forecast.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 311 AM Tue May 19 2026

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley early this morning, with only some bands of mid to high cloud cover passing overhead. An upper trough over the Great Lakes will help to inch a cold front a little closer to the area throughout the day. However, the Tennessee Valley region will still remain under the influence of a broad area of high pressure to the south and east of the area off the coast of the Carolinas. Deep southwesterly flow around the western edge of this ridge will help to advect and maintain a warm, moist air mass (as evidenced by highs reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 60s).

While some moderate destabilization of the boundary layer will take place by this afternoon, model soundings still show at least a weak cap. Without a lifting mechanism (and some subsidence from the ridge), think the the probability of any convection is extremely low and generally less than 5-10%. Some high clouds may begin to increase late in the day, but still think it will feel quite warm/humid afternoon given the progged highs and the dewpoints.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Southwest flow will persist aloft through late week, with subtle shortwaves rippling along the flow during this time. In addition, the aforementioned surface cold front over the Mississippi River Valley will slowly progress southeast over the Tennessee Valley. This feature looks to then meander over the region for several days (through late week). This overall pattern will keep daily chances (50-90%) of showers and storms in the forecast from midweek into the weekend.

To put the wet conditions into perspective, model PWATs generally range between 1.5-1.8 inches through the short term period. When compared with Sounding Climatology from Birmingham, these values are right around to just over the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) for May 20th and 21st. Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With daily rain chances through late week, we'll need to keep an eye on which areas receive rainfall and if it's repetitive, which would increase the localized flood risk. Currently, the Weather Prediction Center has most of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall and this continues through late week. Remember, if you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around Don't Drown! As for the potential for any severe storms, while instability looks to be sufficient, confidence is low in the development of severe storms due to the continuing trend of low bulk shear values by guidance (especially on Wednesday). The main concerns are more likely to be lightning and localized flooding through Thursday.

As for temperatures, the increased rain chances will temper values, resulting in highs only reaching the lower to mid 80s by Thursday. Lows will generally remain in the 60s, due to elevated moisture.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1010 PM CDT Mon May 18 2026

A more summerlike pattern will persist through the Day 4-7 period as 5h ridging builds farther into the southeast U.S. and eastern Gulf of America. Southwesterly flow will persist northwest of the ridge, maintaining a moist flow of air into the Gulf States, particularly in the lower MS Valley where 2.0+ inch PWs will reside. Although, there is a corridor of slightly lower values in the 1.5-1.8 inch range over AL into eastern and middle TN, with higher values farther east across the FL peninsula through GA and the Carolinas. Multiple weak impulses will lift northeast through this period, with medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms each day (diurnally inflated due to heating). High temperatures will be in the lower to middle 80s, with lows in the 60s. Dew points will be in the 60s to around 70 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Tue May 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the period. After sunrise, winds will become gusty out of the SSW between 15-20 kts.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.