textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1036 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms continue across the Tennessee Valley into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Aside from a few small showers across far NW AL, we have had a dry but humid evening across the TN Valley with current temperatures in the low to mid 70s. With the dry conditions across the area, we decided to cancel the Flash Flood Watch as of about 930 PM and flooding is no longer expected to pose a threat. The main concern through the overnight hours will be the potential for dense fog development especially if clouds clear out like they are over NW AL and winds remain light. With RH values in the upper 80s to near 100% already, we will have to monitor trends for a potential Dense Fog Advisory later tonight.

Low to medium chances for rain and thunderstorms will remain through tomorrow as southwest flow aloft continues to keep a warm and humid airmass in place. A persistent high over the western Atlantic will hold steady as an upper wave advances east through TX. This will keep the better synoptic forcing away from the Tennessee Valley, thus our activity will be more diurnally driven and the risk for strong to severe storms will continue to be very low. As with previous days, PWATs in the 1.5-1.7" range will allow for heavy downpours and localized flooding could develop across areas that have already seen heavy rainfall earlier in the week. Otherwise, expect highs in the low to mid 80s with light SW winds.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

The overall synoptic pattern will change slowly through the remainder of the work week, with high pressure expanding southward over the northeast while the aforementioned upper wave slowly pushes east into the lower MS River Valley. Southwesterly flow ahead of this disturbance will keep the TN Valley in a warm tropical airmass and medium to high chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms will persist through Friday. Flooding will remain a concern with any areas that receive multiple days of heavy rainfall, but a larger threat for flash flooding does not seem likely at this time. The threat for severe weather will remain very low, but modest afternoon instability could lead to a few stronger updrafts capable of producing gusty winds up to 40mph and frequent lightning. Highs will generally top out in the low to mid 80s each afternoon with lows in the upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1036 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Ridging in the northern midwest will maintain a blocking pattern through the long term period. The placement of the ridge will allow several shortwaves to ride along its western periphery and drop SE into the TN Valley. At the surface, corresponding high pressure in the northern midwest will induce easterly flow along its base. This will maintain a muggy airmass as 60-70 degree dewpoints and elevated PWATS are pulled in from the Atlantic coast. All in all, the muggy airmass paired with several passing shortwaves will amount to additional days of medium to high rain chances of about 50-80% each afternoon. While thunder is likely with any showers, there are no strong signals for severe weather currently during this period. Rather, we will continue to monitor flooding potential. With high rain chances in place all week, additional rain in the long term may lead to compounding flooding concerns with any additional heavy rainfall increasing the chances of flash flooding and river flooding.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 705 PM CDT Tue May 26 2026

VFR conditions have prevailed across the area as shower activity has been less than anticipated for the time being. Believe the majority of the rain will stay to our south and east through much of the evening and overnight hours, but expect MVFR cigs to move into the area during the late night/early morning period. Medium to high rain chances will continue through tomorrow, where MVFR conditions become more likely within any heavier showers. Winds will gradually veer to the SW through the TAF period but should remain light.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.