textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for all of northern AL and southern Middle TN through 7 PM on Thursday due to a combination of afternoon temperatures in the mid-upper 90s and heat indices up to 113F. A Heat Advisory is in effect from 7 PM on Thursday through 7 PM on Friday.

- Low to medium (30-50%) afternoon/evening thunderstorm chances exist this afternoon before dissipating early this evening. Some of these could be severe producing high end damaging microbursts. A very isolated large hail threat exists as well.

- Lower coverage of afternoon/evening thunderstorms exist on Friday and Saturday. Conditions will be favorable for a few strong to severe storms, with damaging winds being the primary threat.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

A very humid and hot airmass in place across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at this time. A weak convergence boundary was more evident extending SW from western North Carolina into northern Georgia was more evident in observations earlier snaking west into northeast Alabama. Based on cumulus development, thinking it still is in a similar position, but may have edged northwest a bit. This is helping focus higher dewpoints between 75 and 80 degrees over the area. Forecast soundings indicate that some mixing will occur as temperatures climb into the lower to mid 90s, but this may be tempered a bit by the weak boundary being right over the area.

Cloud cover toward 1 PM through 4 PM might help to keep highs from reaching the 98 to 100 degree range. Despite that, heat index values (since the boundary will remain over at least the eastern portion of northern Alabama and move further west during the afternoon) will could climb to over 110 degrees briefly at times later this afternoon. Therefore, a Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM.

Though activity may be more on the scattered side, the downburst threat for storms that develop this afternoon near this boundary are very concerning. This looks to be (though scattered in nature) possibly a higher impact severe downburst potential. Expect storms will develop in northeastern Alabama and then further west into the very early evening hours. Main timing for possible scattered severe storms will be between 1 PM and 8 PM. Then expect activity to dissipate with the lose of daytime heating. However, very robust CAPE, high low level mixing ratio values, high PWATS, steep lapse rates, and a large theta E difference in the atmospheric profile point to this potential.

Temperatures will not drop much with the boundary expected to remain over northern Alabama overnight. Lows in the mid 70 at least will continue.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Models do not show as much convection on Thursday afternoon. However, the boundary looks in guidance (though very weak and hard to discern) to remain over or near northern Alabama. The center of the upper ridge doesn't move much and remains centered over western Virginia and North Carolina. Lower shower and thunderstorm chances are expected (20-30%). This should allow highs to climb into the 94 to 99 degree range for much of the area. Though some mixing will occur in the afternoon, the position of the weak boundary over or near the area will likely help keep dewpoints high enough to warrant heat index values climbing over 110 degree at times in the afternoon. Thus, extending Extreme Heat Warning through Thursday at 7 PM. This may need to be extended later into the week, but more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity if it develops could impact that, so only extending a Extreme Heat Warning for now past Thursday evening.

Friday and Saturday shower and thunderstorm chances will diminish to lower chances (10-30 percent). Strong to severe micorbursts still look possible. A Heat Advisory was extended through Friday at 7 PM. More cloud cover and lower daytime highs could keep heat index values too low and not widespread enough for an additional Heat Advisory on Saturday.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

More pronounced relief in the form of widespread showers and thunderstorms is expected into the weekend again, especially Sunday into early next week. A decent longwave trough axis pushes southeast into the area and maybe followed by a weakening upper low. Shear is very weak with these systems, but they should help focus stronger forcing over the area. With a humid and unstable airmass continuing to remain over the area, some heavier rainfall is expected into early next week and some slightly cooler temperatures with highs mainly between 90 and 95 degrees. Lows will not modify much though, staying in the lower 70s. This should keep heat index values much lower, mainly between 100 and 106 degrees in most locations. Widespread Heat Advisory conditions given possible cloud impacts and higher precipitation chances look less certain. Thus, only extending the Heat Advisory through Friday at 7 PM for now.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2026

Isolated to scattered TSRA will develop this afternoon, with a low chance of both KMSL and KHSV being affected. Gusty winds will occur in and near TS. VFR conditions are forecast otherwise.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for ALZ001>010-016.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT Thursday for TNZ076-096-097.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM Thursday to 7 PM CDT Friday for TNZ076- 096-097.