textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

- Dry, warm weather, with lower afternoon humidities will continue through Friday. Highs will reach into the mid/upper 80s and lows should cool to the upper 40s to mid/upper 50s.

- An area of low pressure over the Gulf may approach the MS/AL/FL coastline this weekend, potentially bringing locally heavy rainfall to portions of the Tennessee Valley late Saturday into Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Dry conditions and mild conditions prevailed across the greater Tennessee Valley this evening, with 9 PM temperatures falling from the mid 60s valleys to 72 at Muscle Shoals. With clear skies and light winds thanks to high pressure building southward from the southeastern Great Lakes, overnight lows should chill into the upper 40s sheltered valleys to around 60 near large bodies of water. Expect light NE winds. There should be enough of a light breeze with 3-5 degrees of T/Td separation, thus fog development is unlikely.

Expect another sunny and warm day on Tue, as high pressure maintains control over our sensible weather. High temperatures tomorrow afternoon should warm into the low/mid 80s. Light easterly winds in the morning should become SE 4-8 mph in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Dry weather with warm days and cool nights will continue through the mid week. Highs on Wed should rise into the mid/upper 80s, and Thu from the mid 80s to around 90. Lows will range from around 50 sheltered valleys to upper 50s near large bodies of water.

Warm afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 80s along with dewpoints around 50 will produce minimum afternoon relative humidities below 30 percent for a good portion of NW and north central Alabama Thu afternoon. Light easterly winds will help temper overall outdoor fire growth and spread potential.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 905 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The start of the long term will offer more of the same as we remain under the influence of high pressure to our north. This will bring another warm and dry day on Friday before the forecast becomes much more troubled.

As we move into the weekend timeframe attention shifts to what is currently Invest 92L in the Gulf of America. Over the last 24 hour various ensemble and deterministic models have begun producing solutions that spin Invest 92L into a tropical system and push it north towards the Gulf coast. When taking a deeper dive in the ensembles, the key difference in the models appears to be the evolution of a shortwave passing through TX from Friday into Saturday. A faster progression of the short wave allows it to phase well with Invest 92L and surges the system north. A slower solution keeps the Invest 92L somewhat disorganized and with significantly less northward progression. Somewhat obviously, the first presented solutions would be of greater concern to our local area. Nonetheless, it is much much too soon to look into any specifics should Invest 92L take a northward path. Rather, we will be monitoring the track and timing of the shortwave to assess the probability of the two features phasing.

For now, kept blended guidance that gradually bring Gulf moisture into our area and increases rain chances through the weekend. This forecast still brings 1-2 inches of rain area wide so at minimum we are currently looking at a dreary weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 636 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions should continue across the TN Valley, as high pressure situated across the southern Great Lakes controls the general weather. NE winds of 3-5kt are expected tonight. Winds will become ESE 5-10kt Tue morning into the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.