textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

- Medium to high chances of showers Thursday and Thursday night. A low chance of thunderstorms Thursday night with a very low risk of damaging winds.

- Much colder Friday into Friday night with lows back at or below freezing.

- A solid warm up from the weekend into next week with low chances of showers.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Cirrus was fanning out and increasing across middle TN and AL this evening. This trend will persist as an upper level shortwave now in AR and LA approaches late tonight into early Wednesday. The short range models and CAMS continue to indicate a narrow string of precipitation development Wednesday morning from northern MS through northwest AL into middle TN associated with the short wave. However, very dry low to mid levels are still observed on the BMX sounding at 00Z with extremely large T/Td depressions, especially in the 1500-3500 ft AGL layer. This is reflective at the surface with current dew points still in the teens to lower 20s. This will present a large obstacle on any measurable precipitation. So at this point, expect mainly virga or a few sprinkles at most before dissipating through the day. Afternoon highs should reach the lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Deep layer southerly flow will increase low to mid level moisture Wednesday night into Thursday as a southern stream trough in the Gulf of America into the lower MS valley moves east. This will produce showers across the region Thursday. Convective instability is limited, even aloft, so not anticipating thunderstorms on Thursday during the day locally. As the northern stream upper trough pivots through the mid MS valley into the OH Valley Thursday evening owing to increasing -divQ, a low level jet and moisture transport maximum along and ahead of the cold front. These forcing factors appear that they will be best just to our north, further limiting our threat of strong thunderstorms given CAPE values below 200 J/kg with temperatures in the 50s to lower 60s and dew points in the lower 50s. Nevertheless, the QG and frontal forcing will be sufficient for fairly high PoPs of mainly showers Thursday evening as the front progresses southeast. The front and precipitation should exit by 06Z if not a bit sooner.

A significant, but short-lived cool down will occur late Thursday night into Friday with blustery north winds. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s to lower 30s, recovering only into the lower to middle 40s for daytime highs on Friday. A transient surface high will arrive Friday evening allowing winds to drop off and lows to dip into the mid 20s east to around 32 west.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley region this weekend into early next week, resulting in a notable warm up across the area. The combination of ample sunshine and southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb back into the 60s on Saturday. A fast- moving shortwave will clip the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing low (20-30%) chances for light rain showers. Thereafter, ridging will amplify early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to perhaps upper 60s by Tuesday!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV. There are a very low chance (less than 20%) of rain Wednesday morning in NW AL, however, have not added to the TAF due to lack of confidence.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.