textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

- Above normal temperatures are forecast through Thursday, with more Fall-like weather expected by the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 226 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Current temperatures are in the mid to upper 80s for most locations, with room for temps to warm a couple more degrees before the afternoon is over. The dry air aloft noted in model soundings earlier did mix down to the surface this afternoon, resulting in dew points dropping into the upper 50s. Other than this, no other changes were needed to the forecast.

Previous Discussion:

Upper level ridging and surface high pressure will maintain their hold over the region today, keeping dry and warm weather in place. Highs are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s for most locations, with perhaps lower 80s over the terrain of NE AL and into southern middle TN. Regardless, these values are above the seasonal norm for this time of year (upper 70s). Please remember to drink plenty of water and take breaks in the shade if you have outdoor activities!

Model soundings also show quite a bit of dry air aloft that may aid in lowering dew points if mixed down to the surface this afternoon. Therefore, lowered forecast dew points a bit (lower 60s) to reflect this trend. Otherwise, tonight looks to be another night of low to medium (20-40%) chances of fog. Not anticipating dense fog at this point, but this will be monitored. Expect lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s later tonight as well.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

The upper ridge and surface high pressure will persist through midweek over the area, keeping warm temperatures in place for the TN Valley. In fact, highs are forecast to be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees Tuesday and Wednesday with lows in the lower 60s by Tuesday night. As previously mentioned, these high temperatures are well above the seasonal norm, so continue practicing heat safety if you have outdoor plans!

Some model guidance suggests a complex of showers and storms will develop to our northwest on Wednesday as a surface front approaches the Southeast. At this time, confidence is low that we'd see much if any rain over NW AL since the better moisture is to our NW; but, we'll keep an eye on trends over the coming days. Most areas are likely to remain dry through midweek and even into late week.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Dry condition and pleasantly warm mid October warmth is forecast to continue starting the 2nd half of the week. Surface high pressure over the SE CONUS will provide a southerly flow across much of the Deep South. After a warm Wed with highs in the mid/upper 80s, lows Wed night should cool to around 60s sheltered valleys to mid 60s near large bodies of water. A last period of unseasonably warm conditions are expected Thu, with highs rising into the low/mid 80s mountains to around 90 over parts of north central and NW Alabama.

Earlier in the week, a system impacting parts of the Great Basin and Intermountain West (infused with moisture from ex tropical system Rachel) should move east of the central Front Range Wed-Thu. This system will move rapidly to the ENE, and reform over the Great Lakes on Fri. A cold front trailing south and west of this system should move across the Tennessee Valley late Thu into Fri. Given that most of the dynamics associated with the parent low will stay well to our north, the usual area of showers accompanying the front will actually fade as they approach the Valley from the west. So except for winds becoming NW on Fri, this frontal passage at the moment appears will be a dry one. There were some timing differences between the model camps with the front. The 18Z GFS was the quickest, bringing the boundary across before daybreak Fri, while the ECMWF and Canadian did not bring it through until after midday Fri.

Regardless, once the front passes temperatures will chill notably, just in time for the upcoming weekend. After lows Thu night mainly in the low/mid 60s, highs on Fri will be a little cooler in the low/mid 80s, as high pressure from the NE Pacific and Canada builds to the SE. Colder conditions will most certainly be felt Fri night, as lows tumble into the mid 40s to around 50. Stiff northerly winds of 10-20 mph and higher gusts will make it chilly for those participating in outdoor activities. The cooler trend continues Sat, with highs mainly in the mid 60s. Normal high/low temperatures Sat are around 75/50. The coldest air of the season should produce lows by Sun morning from the mid/upper 30s to low/mid 40s (places near large bodies of water that are still relatively warm). The lower end of this could bring a frosting risk for the coldest spots, something we'll monitor. Cool conditions continue next Sun with highs from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1142 AM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

VFR conditions will largely prevail at the TAF sites through the period, with mostly clear skies and light westerly winds. There is a low to medium chance of fog formation again tonight; however, confidence is low regarding whether the terminals will be affected. Therefore, elected to leave out the mention of fog in the TAFs for now and reassess in future updates.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.