textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1005 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

- Very low rain chances return this evening into early Monday, with a pattern change bringing our next chance at showers and storms later this coming week. A low chance (20-30 percent) of showers or thunderstorms may develop on Thursday.

- Mostly dry conditions continue through the early portion of next week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s most days. Even warmer temperatures are expected towards the middle/end of the week (highs mid 70s to lower 80s).

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1005 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

A weak cold front has slowly pushed into Moore and Lincoln counties in Tennessee this morning. Not much cloud cover is in place near this front, expect some very high and thin cirrus primarily. Models continue to slowly push this front southeast through the day today ending up in most cases somewhere near the Tennessee River or slightly further north by the mid-afternoon hours. The cloud cover trend will likely continue, but do not see a big increase in coverage or thickness of cloud cover near this front in model guidance until the late evening hours tonight into the very early morning hours on Monday. Thus, not expecting a big impact on temperatures from cloud cover. However, cold air advection near and behind where the actual cold this afternoon will have impacts on high temperatures. Mainly expecting lower high temperatures north of the Tennessee River with warming afternoon temperatures further south.

That being said, with temperatures in the lower to mid 60s in most areas already at 10 AM, highs even in cooler locations should climb into the 70 to 75 degree range (the exception may be the highest elevations north of the Tennessee River - upper 60s/around 70 more likely there). Warmer temperatures between 75 and 80 degrees are expected further south towards Cullman county.

At the same time, a strong disturbance develops and moves almost due east in most model guidance from Kansas into northern Tennessee and Kentucky. This feature will help to increase the coverage and depth of cloud cover primarily tonight into Monday morning. Most of the concentrated and strongest lift remains north of even our Tennessee counties. However, strong enough forcing on the southern edge may extend far enough south to produce a few isolated to scattered showers after midnight tonight into early Monday morning near and north of the TN/AL border.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1005 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

Cloud cover should be more of a hindrance to high temperatures on Monday across much of northern Alabama and northward into Tennessee. Some sunshine may break through during the mid-afternoon hours. Expect temperatures to still be nice, but a bit lower on Monday, climbing into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the area, despite southerly winds.

Monday night into Tuesday guidance is showing wedging (cooler temperatures) advecting into the area from the east. This would setup a good temperature gradient from east to west across northern Alabama. More widespread highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s east of the I-65 corridor would likely be the result, with highs still climbing into the low to mid 70s further west.

This changes Tuesday night into Wednesday, as stronger low level flow from the Gulf coast develops ahead of a stronger surface low moving east into the central Great Lakes region and an attendant cold from extending southwest from it into the southern states. The southern end of this front is not as strong, but low level flow will increase and be from the south out of the Gulf coast area. This should pull warmer air into the area, even into NE Alabama. Highs will likely climb into the mid 70s to lower 80s in most locations with mainly partly cloudy conditions are times.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CST Sat Feb 28 2026

As the front moves closer to the Tennessee Valley region Wednesday night into the weekend, the surface high over the Atlantic doesn't want to budge much. Despite a good amount of cloud cover over the area, the strength of warm air advection may allow temperatures to climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s on Thursday.

There is some question whether showers and thunderstorms ahead of the approaching cold front will push into NW Alabama on Thursday. For now kept 20 to 40 percent chances of rain and thunderstorms. Current guidance doesn't show much shear ahead of the front and weakens it significantly as it tries to move into NW Alabama. SBCAPE is between 500 and 1000 J/KG. However, helicity is weak as well in most guidance. Thus, mainly expecting run of the mill thunderstorm activity with frequent lightning and heavy downpours if we realize convection.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1040 AM CST Sun Mar 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Expect mainly SCT to BKN high CIGS today, before lowering a bit close to around 6000 feet towards 6Z and continuing until around or just after daybreak. These CIGS should lift to above 10,000 feet during the morning hours. At this time, we believe any -RA will remain north of the terminals. Winds will pick up to between 5 and 10 kts shortly after daybreak on Monday.

CLIMATE

Issued at 310 PM CST Fri Feb 27 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwestern and north-central Alabama, and southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 8th through 10th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center has also included far northwestern Alabama, which includes western portions of Lauderdale and Colbert Counties in a High Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 8th through 9th. There is a 60-80% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.