textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 - Medium to high chances (50-95%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will move in Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday evening as another front moves through the region.

- There is a Marginal Risk for for flash flooding across the Tennessee Valley Tuesday night through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 205 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Temperatures have warmed into the mid to upper 70s across the area under mostly sunny skies, which is 5 to 7 degrees above normal for this time of year. As the low pressure system over the Plains deepens later this evening, the pressure gradient will tighten over the local forecast area. This will result in winds at times gusting up to 20-25 mph through the overnight hours. The winds will keep the temperatures tonight mild with overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s. Cloud cover is forecast to gradually increase from west to east as we head towards sunrise tomorrow.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday Night) Issued at 1016 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

The main focus for this week will be during the short term period as a trough swings eastward from the Central Plains to the Great Lakes region Tuesday and Wednesday. The trough will continue to dig southward as a potent shortwave rotates through the base of the trough over AR/LA/TX Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday. This will bring a sfc cold front through the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday which will be the main driver for increasing rain and thunderstorm chances midweek. Conditions are expected to remain mostly dry throughout the day on Tuesday with increasing cloud cover ahead of the trough and breezy, southwest winds with gusts of 20-30 mph. The front approaches Tuesday evening with some isolated showers and storms moving through our western zones ahead of the main front during the time. As the main band of frontal precipitation moves through, all areas will see 90-100 percent chances for rainfall Tuesday night into Wednesday. This will be a relatively slow moving frontal boundary and therefore, our concerns for flash flooding start to increase, especially after the amount of rain some areas of N AL received on Sunday. Most areas will see an additional 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts of 3-4 inches which on top of the 3-5 inches received yesterday across NW AL, this could create some additional flooding issues. Currently, we are in a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall from WPC with this system with just the far northwestern tip of Lauderdale County in a Slight Risk. Amongst the CAMs the timing of the entrance of main band of precip is still slightly varying but within the window of 10p-3a looks like the best estimate for entrance into NW AL with exiting NE AL by 6 PM Wednesday. There will be limited instability with the timing of the frontal passage with best chances for thunder being on Wednesday afternoon east of I-65 as the front works its way out of north Alabama.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Thursday, in the wake of a departing surface trough and axis of rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly flow aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with overnight lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east- southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be far too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor increase in cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this system. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread southeastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light northerly winds in the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft) expected to result in a continuation of dry weather from Friday- Saturday night. Early morning lows in the m30s-l40s can be expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with afternoon highs in the l-m 60s. Low chances for rain may return to parts of the region by Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a weakening clipper system diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower- latitude disturbance shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf Coast. However, due to vastly different model solutions at this time range, we will keep POPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 555 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this evening and through the early morning hours on Tuesday. However, SE flow at the sfc will remain in the 8G16kt range due to a contracting pressure gradient, and this (along with a gradual increase in the SSE low-level jet) will support northward moisture transport and an increase in the coverage of stratocu thru sunrise. As the low- level jet veers to SSW later tomorrow morning, a lower stratus deck will quickly become established by 14Z and cigs should remain in the MVFR range for the rest of the TAF period. Although most of the forecast area will remain dry thru 0Z Wednesday, a narrow axis of weak convection may develop northwestward into the region late tomorrow aftn, and a PROB30 group for lgt SHRA has been included at MSL to address this scenario. Sfc winds at both airports will remain from the SE but increase to 12G22kt by 14Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.