textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- An unsettled weather pattern will begin tonight and continue through Saturday night, with medium to high chances (40%-80%) for showers and thunderstorms.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development and flash flooding Saturday into Saturday night.

- Medium (30-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day from Sunday-Wednesday. Rain chances will decrease on Thursday/Friday, with high temperatures returning to the upper 80s-lower 90s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

North-northwest flow aloft of 15-25 knots will persist across the local forecast area early this morning, in the wake of a trough moving slowly eastward off the Atlantic Seaboard. Although a gradual increase in the coverage of high-level clouds is anticipated in this regime, a light ENE-calm wind (provided by a surface high over the Upper-OH Valley) will support the development of patchy mist and fog as temps remain steady in the m-u 60s through sunrise.

Over the course of the day, a deepening surface low will shift southeastward across IA in conjunction with an amplifying northern stream shortwave trough digging southeastward into this region from the Dakotas. As this occurs, low-level flow will veer to the south and deep tropical moisture will begin to return northward through the cyclones warm sector. Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected to occur within the moist plume (from northern MS/southwestern TN southeastward into the northeastern Gulf Coast), but at this point it appears as if our CWFA will remain on northeastern edge of this axis. Thus, we will only advertise a low (10-25%) POP in the west between 21-0Z. Should any storms impact our region, weak shear and CAPE only up to 500-1000 J/kg suggest that occasional lightning and heavy rain will be the most substantial impacts. In spite of a notable increase in mid/high- level clouds late this afternoon, high temperatures will be similar to yesterday (m80s in elevated terrain and u80s-l90s in the valley).

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

As the aforementioned system approaches the lower OH and mid MS River valleys, forcing for widespread rain and thunderstorms will increase ahead of the approaching cold front. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across NW AL by Saturday morning and will progress east as we head into the afternoon. There are still some disagreements amongst model guidance that has resulted in a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong or widespread storms will be ahead of and along the front. Any southward deviations that result in heavier rain being pushed to our south late Saturday morning could block the better moisture return but any breaks in the cloud cover and heavy rain would result in stronger sfc heating and instability. Although deep layer shear appears weaker (<30kts), low level winds and hodographs do show decent curvature/veering flow in the lowest 1km that would support the threat for damaging winds and a low tornado threat. This will be highly contingent on how much clearing we see in the early afternoon and if we are able to destabilize enough after the earlier convection.

The risk for flash flooding will also exist as PWATs range from 2.2-2.3" when multiple waves of heavy rain are progged to move through the area. WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive rain east of I-65 where there is better confidence in storm coverage later in the day. So definitely keep the dual threat for strong to severe storms and flooding in mind when making outdoor plans on Saturday.

Coverage should begin to decrease from west to east Saturday evening and storms could even exit east of the area by around midnight. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will linger through Sunday as wraparound moisture exists behind the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The long term period will begin with lingering rainfall from an aforementioned upper level trough and subsequent front that shifts eastward over the area this weekend. Rain chances should subside from west to east Sunday evening. This will be short-lived as low pressure resides over the southeast U.S., bringing daily shower/thunderstorm chances through mid week. Have continued with blended guidance for now, keeping low to medium PoPs each afternoon due to disagreement in the exact placement of the low within ensembles. Throughout the long term, a gradual warm up is forecast with highs reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by mid week. These temperatures will be dependent on potential cloud cover (or lack thereof) over the area. If PoPs and coexisting cloud cover trend down as we approach next week, highs will likely be a bit warmer than currently forecast. However, no heat products are on the horizon at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR conditions will continue at the HSV/MSL terminals (aside from light BR/FG which may impact HSV thru 13Z). Low- level flow will veer to SSW and strengthen to 5-10 kts later this morning as a developing area of low pressure shifts southeastward across IA. The northward return of deep-layer moisture ahead of this system will lead to a notable increase in both the coverage and density of As/Cs by late aftn. However, recent model data now suggests that the risk for SHRA and perhaps a few TSRA will increase more substantially during the 8-12Z timeframe (in conjunction with a strengthening WSW low-level jet) and PROB30 groups have been adjusted accordingly.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.