textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

- Medium to high chances of showers Thursday and Thursday night. A very low chance of thunderstorms Thursday night. A very isolated chance of a strong to severe storm producing damaging winds.

- Much colder Friday into Friday night with lows back at or below freezing.

- A solid warm up from the weekend into next week with low chances of showers.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Mainly high cloud cover is in place from portions of NW Alabama ENE into much of southern middle Tennessee. Some clear skies remain in place from Cullman northeast into DeKalb counties at this hour. This area will gradually fill in towards and after the noon hour. This additional sunshine and increasing low level warm air advection this afternoon should allow temperatures to climb into the 55 to 61 degree range in those areas this afternoon.

Though radar returns suggest precipitation is in place beneath these clouds, extreme dry air in a layer between 500 mb (especially around 880 to 890 mb) is likely evaporating any precipitation aloft. A token 15 to 20 percent chance of light rain from northwest AL into NE Alabama was kept this morning. However, the very strong forcing around 700 mb that is forcing this precipitation aloft moves east into Georgia shortly after noon as well. This should put an end to precipitation chances. However, mid/high cloud cover will linger with additional weak to moderate vorticity over the area further aloft.

Near and north of the Tennessee River should remain cooler due to more persistent cloud cover today. Highs in those areas will likely only reach the 50 to 55 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1113 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

A strong upper low and associated very amplified longwave trough axis continues to be shown moving from the Northern Plains into the western Great Lakes region on Thursday. Deep and strong forcing develops east of that system from the western Ohio Valley region into Missouri. Strong shear develops as well ahead of this cold front. However, instability is really none existent ahead of the front. Persistent southwest to southerly winds upstream will slowly increase the moisture in the atmospheric column tonight ahead and well east of this developing system. The boundary layer moisture will really advect into the area though during the day on Thursday. Deep, strong shear (40-60 knots) extends south all the way into southern Alabama ahead of this front. However, it will still be a tall order to advect high enough dewpoints and temperatures north into to the area to keep a very low level inversion from setting up around 850 mb. This will likely keep any severe thunderstorms from occurring.

A few models do show very isolated SBCAPE ahead of the front between 50 and 100 J/KG, but extremely spotty. Keeping isolated storms in the forecast, but this may be pushing it. If the barely SBCAPE is realized ahead of the front an isolated strong to severe storm could occur, but confidence in that happening is extremely low. Heavy rain due to fairly high PWATS and deep strong forcing will likely be the most likely scenario. It will be very windy/gusts though despite the inversion. Gradient winds will likely be between 15 and 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph. It the inversion ends up being higher or weaker, then a wind advisory may be needed Thursday into Thursday evening. However, at this time, that looks unlikely. With the weak, strong lift expected ahead of this cold front, from 1 to locally around 2 inches in a few locations could occur from Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening. Winds will become a bit lighter late Thursday night, but still remain around 10 to mph with gusts between 20 and 25 primarily. However, rainfall should end from west to east after 1 AM.

Friday should be sunny with winds between 5 and 10 mph gusting to around 15 mph in the afternoon. Fairly strong cold air advection will keep highs in the lower 40s to around 50s degrees. Lows will drop back into the mid 30s to lower 30s with the drier and colder air advected into the region.

Return flow returns fairly quickly on Saturday around the surface high as it shifts eastward a bit. This should lead to warmer temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s again.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 837 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

High pressure will remain near the area over the Tennessee Valley region the remainder of the weekend into early next week. This will continue a notable warm up across the area. The combination of ample sunshine and southerly winds will allow temperatures to climb back into the 60s on Saturday. A fast- moving shortwave will clip the region Saturday night into Sunday, bringing low (20-30%) chances for light rain showers. Thereafter, ridging will amplify early next week, with high temperatures returning to the mid to perhaps upper 60s by Tuesday!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

VFR conditions are expected through 18/12Z. Mid/High CIGS are expected to continue. Some virga may occur this morning, but not precipitation or lower CIGS are expect at either terminal until afer 18/12Z. Expect predominant -RA and even lower CIGS below 2000 feet after 18/15Z at KMSL and 18/17Z at KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.