textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 854 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- There is a low chance of a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Gusty winds and lightning are the main threats.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms has a low chance of bringing some strong to severe storms to the area Monday night into Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 854 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

A few showers have continued through primarily northeastern AL and were able to find enough instability to produce 1-2 strikes of lightning this morning. However, these showers have since weakened as they continue northeast out of the area. Our next area to monitor will be a frontal boundary shifting into northwestern AL and southern middle TN this morning. Along this boundary, we are quickly destabilizing with cumulus developing in far NW AL and portions of middle TN. As the morning progresses, we expect additional development of showers along the TN/AL border (with the highest confidence along I-65 and eastward). Poor model guidance limits our confidence on how widespread showers will be throughout the day, however, diurnal heating will contribute to increased instability this afternoon and a subsequent low chance of a few stronger storms. If these stronger storms form, gusty winds will be the primary threat along with lightning. Kept low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers/thunderstorms for this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 854 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

The forecast remains dry for Sunday to begin the week as highs top out in the lower 80s under partly cloudy skies, making it an ideal day for outdoor activities. We will be monitoring an upper level low shifting eastward through the Great Lakes region through mid week, bringing additional chances of showers/thunderstorms ahead of an upper level trough. Monday night into Tuesday, the Storm Prediction Center has outlooked portions of NW AL and southern middle TN in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) with most of the rest of the area in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather development. Ensemble forecasts indicate increased sfc CAPE (up to 1500 J/kg) along with ~30 kts of bulk shear over portions of NW AL Monday evening ahead of the storms, however, this instability will quickly begin to decrease with the loss of diurnal heating. Therefore, we will be closely monitoring the cold front and when storms are forecast to move into the area. Current thoughts are that this will be an overnight event, in which instability should decrease to around 500 J/kg along with shear remaining ~30 kts. The primary threats of concern at this time are damaging winds as well as a low tornado threat along what will likely be a QLCS system.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Timing continues to vary with the shortwave and trailing cold front moving east through the Great Lakes through the TN valley early Tuesday. A potential MCS will be ongoing Tuesday pushing ahead of the stalling front, including the local forecast area. We will continue to monitor the risk of strong to severe weather with these storms, but with the low level jet weakening by early Tuesday morning, this risk may decrease. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday, with greater chances once again Tuesday night into Wednesday as another trough deepens over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and another strong cold front which pushes southeast through the region. More beneficial rainfall will occur with this system along with a low risk of strong to severe storms, perhaps even with locally excessive rainfall. However, it is too early to say with much certainty on the risk of severe weather depending on how much cloud cover and remaining precipitation on Tuesday hinder destabilization. Post frontal rain chances will occur through early Thursday before more significant drying can occur later Thursday. But this will be temporary with yet another shortwave pushing east through the Gulf states Friday into Saturday. At this point, the TN valley would be on the cold sector side of this system. Still a chance of elevated MCS rainfall and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be dropping back to near or below normal by the end of next week into the weekend with highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday followed by mid to upper 40s Friday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the morning. By this afternoon, diurnally driven thunderstorms are expected to develop. Confidence is low in coverage at this time therefore left within a prob 30 group. Any thunderstorm will lower both cigs and vsby to MVFR. Precip ends shortly after sunset returning the terminals back to VFR.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.