textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- There is a low to medium chance for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

- Localized flash flooding and damaging winds will be the primary threats with the strongest storms, with a low chance of marginally severe hail and a tornado or two.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley today as a ridge of high pressure builds into the area from the west. This will promote a beautiful early May day and noticeable warm-up as temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to lower 80s, thanks to the ample sunshine and breezy southwest winds. These winds will weaken after sunset and with a clear sky it should be a good night for radiational cooling. As a result, lows will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s along the sheltered valleys of northeast Alabama and the mid 50s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1032 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

High pressure will scoot off to the east of the region on Tuesday as a broad upper-trough and its associated cold front approaches the Tennessee Valley from the northwest. Cloud cover will gradually increase through the day on Tuesday, with some weak lift creating some low (20-30%) chances for light rain showers in the late afternoon. Some low to medium chance for rain showers (and a low chance of a few elevated thunderstorms) will expand overnight as the boundary sags a little further to the south and east. Still, precipitation shouldn't add up to any more than 0.10-0.20" through 12z Wednesday.

The upper trough over the Great Lakes will amplify on Wednesday, forcing a front southeast into the region during the afternoon and overnight hours. Ahead of this front, deep southerly flow will advect an extremely moist, almost tropical-like air mass as evidence by PWATs climbing to between 1.8" to 2.1" by the afternoon. These values would represent new daily max values for KBMX for the date of May 6th. Thus any convection that can get going will have a threat for locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding in areas where training may occur. As a result, WPC has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a Slight Risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall.

The main question this far north and east will be how much the dense cloud cover and morning rain will limit instability. Bulk shear of around 50-60 kts and low- level shear (aided by a 30-40 LLJ which will be moving NE across the Tennessee Valley during the 18-00z window) will be more than sufficient for organized convection if it can get going across portions of western to middle Tennessee during the early afternoon. Current thinking is that these shear values (assisted by some modest, but appreciable instability) will favor supercells developing along the front, but quickly congealing into a linear mode of storms as they move SE into the Tennessee Valley during the mid/late afternoon into the evening. This is due to the deep layer flow largely paralleling the the front as it pivots SE into the area.

All this to say out main threats would be damaging straight-line winds and a localized flash flooding threat. The wind shear is fairly unidirectional, but enlongated hodographs with some subtle curvature in the low-levels would favor a few rotating storms and a low chance for a tornado or two (mainly in storms that veer to the right). Low to mid level lapse rates aren't all that impressive and for this reason, think the large hail threat is also fairly low. Storms will weaken after Midnight and clear the area early Thursday morning, bringing the severe threat to an end.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026

Clouds and rain look to linger into the start of the long term as the aforementioned cold front pushes to our SE early on Thursday morning. In its wake, conditions will clear and dry throughout the day as surface high pressure quickly builds in behind it. The quick bout of high pressure paired with zonal flow aloft will allow relatively cooler air to momentarily displace Gulf moisture keeping temps mild on Thursday and Friday. Highs will range from the high 60s to low 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. The brief bout of dry and clear conditions will come to an end as we head into the weekend.

Surface high pressure will quickly push off the Atlantic coast as a surface low pressure system builds in the SW. This will induce SW flow locally surging moisture and temperatures back towards seasonal normals. Through the weekend, a weakening mid level low and associated surface low will pass to our south across the Gulf Coast. Weak lift associated with this feature paired with Gulf moisture will support low rain chances (10-20%) on Saturday and Sunday as the feature passes. No severe weather is forecast.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. South-southwest flow will gust at 15-20kt at times today.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.