textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 215 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The primary risks are damaging winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.

- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rain and localized flash flooding Wednesday through Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

A surface low in northwest Oklahoma is forecast to move east into northern Arkansas by this afternoon. Clusters of elevated convection have erupted in souther central and southeast Kansas northeast of the low and north of the warm front attached to the low. This activity is forecast to organize and expand moving through southern Missouri and northern Arkansas this morning before crossing the Mississippi River early this afternoon. There is a low chance this will reach northwest Alabama and southern middle Tennessee as well later this afternoon. However, more limited moisture and instability this far east may tend to deplete this activity as noted in various CAMS. The increase in high clouds will keep temperatures below 80 this afternoon with upper 70s in valley areas and lower to middle 70s atop the Cumberland Plateau. South breezes of 10-15 mph will gust to around 20 mph or a bit higher as pressure falls spread east ahead of the low. Convection will redevelop along the surface cold front late this afternoon and evening in southern MO and northern AR. This will stream east mainly into northern and western TN, sagging southeast late tonight into far northern AL and southern middle TN. The main risk from this activity will be gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Our attention will quickly shift to our severe weather and flooding risk on Wednesday. There will be two feature of interest regarding this set up. The more obvious and consistent is the actual cold front supporting convection Wednesday afternoon into the evening. The other will be a weakening MCS on Wednesday morning.

The weakening MCS on Wednesday morning won't possess much of a severe threat however it could significantly impact our severe weather chances. While models consistently bring in showers and storms along the TN/AL state line early Wednesday morning, this is considerable variation on spatial and temporal coverage of storms. Should morning convection progress across most of the area and linger through midday (as about a third of the models suggest) this would significantly lower our ability to destabilize. This will be a trend we will keep an eye one.

At this time, we expect at least partial clearing of morning convection by midday allowing us to destabilize fairly quickly given our very warm and moist airmass. With the approaching front we will have a shear profile favorable for supercell development Wednesday afternoon (bulk shear 50-60KTS). Models continue to support storms firing along the front to our west and congealing into a line as storms progress east. Of note, strong southerly flow will push PWATs near and likely above 1.5 inches, nearing daily maxes per BMX sounding climatology. Given storm mode and our incredibly moist environment, damaging winds and heavy rainfall look to be our main threats. As such, we are in a Slight Risk for severe weather and Heavy rainfall from SPC and WPC. Some low level curvature in the hodographs does look to support a low tornado threat that we will continue to evaluate as CAMs better capture the event. Timing is also still somewhat uncertain. Convective initiation looks apparent in the models sometime around early afternoon with late afternoon through the evening being the period of greatest risk as the storms move east. Any remaining storms will lose their severe threat after midnight as instability wanes with rain and elevated thunder remaining behind the front.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Monday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

A cold front towards daybreak Thursday should be advancing in a NNW to SSE manner across the forecast area. Most of the guidance has the boundary from near Ft Payne to south of Cullman at sunrise. Scattered to numerous showers should be in progress, with a few embedded thunderstorms mainly south of the Tennessee River, or along and south of the cold front. Postfrontal showers should gradually move more to the south and east, ending from north to south as we go into Thursday afternoon. The GFS and ECMWF were in similar agreement ending the showers in the early afternoon, but the NAM and Canadian were holding on to anafront showers into the later afternoon. Rainfall totals of around 2 inches will help temper the on-going dry spell, but probably not end the drought. Direct sun is unlikely given the amount of post frontal clouds, thus expect a cooler Thursday with highs in mid/upper 60s.

Lower heights resulting as more troughing moves over the area, along with a Canadian high pressure building in from the NW, will make for a chilly period Thursday night, with lows tumbling into the mid 40s. More direct solar insolation should return across the area Friday. A strong month of May sun, and heights increasing again, will help boost high temperatures back into the lower 70s. These readings around nearly 10 degrees below seasonal of around 80 degrees. A bit milder Friday night with lows around 50. The surface high should be moving east of the area Saturday, bringing a southerly flow over the region. Thus even warmer temperatures to close out the week, with highs back into the mid/upper 70s. Low temperatures Saturday night should cool into the mid 50s.

The return southerly flow will also return additional moisture from the Gulf region. This moisture upgliding and higher instability with warmer temperatures, will return low/medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. At the moment, storm intensity should be "general" with the usual gusty winds, heavy downpours and lightning the main hazards. Temperatures to start the new week, Sunday should rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Lows Sunday

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 503 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through the day with southerly winds gusting at 15-22kt. Ceilings below 030agl (MVFR) are forecast to move into northwest AL and southern middle TN overnight, including KMSL by 08Z. It is more uncertain if these clouds reach the KHSV area before 12Z. There remains a low chance of -SHRA or -TSRA during the late morning and afternoon hours today. These chances will go up after 06Z, especially north of KMSL and KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.