textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- There is a low chance of few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday morning, mainly in northwest Alabama. Gusty to locally damaging winds and lightning are the main threats.

- We are monitoring a low chance of severe storms next Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A nearly zonal upper level flow will become established over much of the central and southern CONUS, as a strong upper low sets up over southern Canada. Surface high pressure off of the SE coast will continue a southerly flow across the SE Lower-48. This deep flow will gradually increase atmospheric moisture across the area, with the southerly component bringing warmer conditions. Area temperatures now in the lower 70s, with more sun than clouds (until the mid/late afternoon) should rise into the low/mid 80s. Winds will be from the south around 10 mph.

One last dry period for a while is forecast tonight, with low temperatures falling into the lower 50s NE Alabama to near 60 NW Alabama. With light winds, a few instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out in the more sheltered locations before daybreak Friday.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

A cold front trailing southward from a surface low over southern Canada will approach the Tennessee Valley in the Friday to Saturday timeframe. It should move across the area Saturday night. As it nears, moisture pooling from the Gulf of America and greater instability resulting from that, plus daytime heating, shower and thunderstorm chances return across NW Alabama Friday afternoon, with rain chances increasing from west to east in the course of the afternoon and evening. Before showers commence another warm late April day is expected as highs rise into the low/mid 80s.

Overall severe parameters, aka instabilities like CAPE look marginal in the ~200-500 J/kg range, but helicity values jump to 150-250 m/s, severe thunderstorm development cannot be ruled out, mainly over NW Alabama. The primary threats posed by the stronger or severe storms will be strong to damaging outflow wind gusts. Overall storm intensity should be lower more to the east as we go into late Friday night. Medium to high rain chances are expected, especially Fri night. Lows will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Medium to high chances for shower and thunderstorm will continue across the region Saturday (especially in the morning), as the aformentioned front slowly nears from the west. Overall storm intensity looks to be "general" far as severe parameters. Forecasted rainfall amounts of 1/4 to 1/2 of an inch are expected, with some locally higher amounts.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Much stronger upper level ridging builds into the area Saturday night into Sunday, as the disturbance's trough axis shifts further southeast. We will likely see a break in cloud cover during this period before mostly cloudy conditions return on Sunday. Sunshine and fairly warm low level flow should allow highs to climb into the 80 to 85 degree range again.

As a strong upper low rotates around the stationary surface low over south central Canada, strong cyclogenesis occurs over the Midwest and northern Plains area Sunday night into Monday. A strong sub-tropical jet also feeds this process. This will create the potential of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing again over the area.

As this stronger frontal boundary moves east towards the Ohio Valley Monday morning into Monday afternoon, much stronger forcing develops ahead of it and pushes into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys Monday afternoon into Monday night. Good helicity, shear, and instability is shown in most guidance ahead of it. This could be both a period of severe weather and very heavy rainfall over the Tennessee Valley region/Ohio Valley. PWATS climb to between 1.3 and 1.7 inches and very strong dynamics feed by a strong sub- topical jet and a coupled low/mid level jet streaks could produce some very heavy rainfall. This period may need to be monitored for a minor flash flooding threat.

This system pushes east of the area by Tuesday morning bringing drier and somewhat cooler air to the area. This pattern quickly become unsettled again in most guidance Wednesday night into Thursday, as another strong disturbance rotates around the parent upper low move east across southern Canada. This could produce a more serious threat of flooding concerns as we go into the mid/end of next week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.