textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

- Low chances (10%-20%) for showers across northeast Alabama today.

- Low to medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances (50-90%) for showers and thunderstorms each day, from Wednesday through the weekend

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Morning satellite imagery indicating mostly clear skies with scattered low/mid cloud cover passing through the Tennessee Valley. Temps are already pushing 80 degrees this morning with dew points in the mid/upper 60s. Highs will top out in the upper 80s to right around 90 degrees once again this afternoon with southerly winds of 10-15 mph gusting near 20 mph. Axis of slightly better moisture and instability (SBCAPE ~1000 J/kg) will remain east of I-65 this afternoon where there will be a 10-20 percent chance primarily for shower activity. A rumble of thunder is not out of the question but should be few and far between. Tonight...winds will drop off after sunset with lows remaining mild in the mid to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1030 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

Mid-level ridge which has been in place to our east for several days will begin to weaken over the local area on Tuesday as a trough swings across the northern Plains and associated sfc low transitions northeastward across the Great Lakes region. The sfc cold front will push eastward throughout the day Tuesday approaching the local area late on Tuesday into Wednesday. It will slow and become near stationary over MS/AL/GA on Wednesday. As a result, chances for rain/storms will increase Tuesday night into Wednesday along and ahead of the frontal boundary with continued rounds of activity on Wednesday and Thursday as a series of shortwaves transition along the western edge of the subtropical ridge over the TN Valley as plenty of moisture remains in place along the stalled frontal boundary. Morning CAMs coming in are backing off significantly in precip chances with the initial precip coming in tomorrow night with the cold front. Any notable precip chance remain west of I-65 until after sunrise on Wednesday but that still may be too high if trends continue. Rain chances will peak Wednesday and Thursday during the daytime hours between 70%-90% both days. Shear profiles aren't impressive at this time and the severe threat remains low but will feel very summer like in terms of convection with sufficient instability, moisture, and lift in place to fuel these rounds of activity. We are included in a "Marginal" risk for Excessive Rainfall by WPC for Wednesday and Thursday but any rainfall will be beneficial at this point and QPF totals are not anticipated to result in any sort of impactful flooding outside of ponding on roadways where localized higher amounts are seen.

High temps will remain above normal on Tuesday before moderating mid- week into the low/mid 80s under increased cloud cover and weakening ridge.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Sunday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sun May 17 2026

This pattern will continue largely unabated from Thursday night into the weekend, with a broad summer-like subtropical ridge centered near Bermuda and deep SWRLY flow persisting across the TN Valley. A series of shortwaves are expected to ride along the trough/ridge interface across the region and bring bouts of increased shower/storm activity. Timing this is difficult, as the distinct nature of these shortwaves is difficult to discern in the model guidance. Nevertheless, increased instability during the daytime will certainly act to regulate chances for showers/storms during the period. Thermo profiles during the Thurs-Friday period do not appear to change significantly, with generally moist- adiabatic type profiles in the increasing deep/humid airmass. PWs climbing to near 1.7 inches and only modest CAPEs and weak-modest shear would suggest the largest threat may be due to any localized flash flooding that could result, especially with the prospect for slow-moving training storms. Shear may increase a little into the weekend, but still would characterize as modest at best. Overall, this is reminiscent of a warm, early summer pattern with highs mostly in the 80s and warm nights with lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 AM CDT Mon May 18 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to continue through the TAF period. Gusty southerly winds up to 20-25 knots can be expected this afternoon before subsiding around sunset tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.