textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1016 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

- A Flood Watch for Flash Flooding is in effect through 10 PM Tuesday for Cullman, Morgan, Madison, Jackson, Marshall and Dekalb counties.

- Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms continue into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 239 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A MCV is situated over central Alabama sending us several bands of precipitation and bringing a high chance for heavy showers and medium chance of thunderstorms. These bands are enhanced by favorable environmental conditions including high PW values near the 90th percentile observed in Nashville and Birmingham soundings coupled with weak Corfidi vectors. Widespread accumulation between 0.25-0.50 inches with localized amounts between 2-3 inches is expected which may lead to localized flooding concerns, particularly in places that received a lot of rain yesterday. As a result of the localized heavy rain, a flood watch for flash flooding is in effect until 10 PM Tuesday for Cullman, Morgan, Madison, Jackson, Marshall, and Dekalb counties. CAMs did not initialize well especially over the TN Valley, and are likely underestimating the amount of precipitation and thunderstorms. Low mean wind vectors indicate that any rain and thunderstorms that form will move across the area slowly adding to flash flooding concerns. These showers and thunderstorms are excepted to continue overnight and temperatures will fall to the 60s across the TN Valley.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 1016 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

The overall weather pattern remains unchanged as we head into the middle of the week. Temperatures both Tuesday and Wednesday are forecast to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The greatest concern continues to be the medium to high chance (60-80%) of precip each day. It is still uncertain exactly when the greatest coverage of showers and storms will be each day, but the afternoon/evening hours appear the most favorable given the strong moisture advection off the Gulf combined with daytime heating. Locally heavy rainfall will be the main concern, especially if storms train over the same location. Depending on how things evolve over the next day or two, we may need to think about extending or expanding the Flood Watch in future update.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1146 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

As we go into Wednesday night, an upper low should be positioned over the Sierra Nevada range. Rather sharp, smaller synoptic scale ridging was also in place from the Deep south to the Upper Mississippi River Valley. But more upper lows over SE Canada was producing troughing along eastern seaboard from the Mid Atlantic and northward. The western trough should weaken as we go into the weekend, with upper ridging from the Gulf to south/central Canada holding strong. The SE Canadian trough not only persists, but guidance even further out from Sunday show it potentially amplifying further to the south.

By the midweek, a frontal boundary should be oriented in a west to east manner from the central Great Plains to the northern Delmarva. Because of upper troughing from eastern Canada, it will move more southward along the east coast across the Carolinas. But it should for the most part remain near to just north of our area in the latter half of the week.

A southerly flow from the Gulf will keep a moist environment in place across the Deep South. This moisture along with daytime heating will destabilize, and bring more showers and thunderstorms each day. Precipitable water amounts for this period range from 1.7" to 1.9" which will favor locally heavy rainfall in the heavier showers and storms. Given that heavy rainfall will have already fallen in previous convection, additional amounts will run off and could result in flooding, as well as rises in creek, stream and river water levels. Overall thunderstorm strength for the most parts should remain general, gusty outflow winds the main threat. Storms in these environments can become very electrically active, thus consideration to seek safe shelter should storms near your location. With more clouds than sun and elevated rain chances, daily high temperatures for the extended should range mostly in the lower 80s (with some mid 80s at times), and lows in the mid 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1214 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Areas of moderate to heavy rain continue to overspread north AL with embedded thunderstorms. Confidence in any thunder impacting terminals decreased, so TSRA was removed from the TAF. Otherwise, expect MVFR to IFR conditions to prevail. In stronger showers, vsby and cigs may be reduced to LIFR. Another concern is early morning fog, much like today, plus low clouds. Airport minimums may be met closer to daybreak. Rain remains in the forecast all week.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ006>010-016.

TN...None.