textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

- Unseasonably mild temperatures will continue through Saturday, with highs in the 60s and 70s.

- Low to medium rain chances (including a few thunderstorms) from tonight through Saturday evening, with a high chance for showers and thunderstorms Thursday night-Friday morning.

- A colder airmass will return to the area Saturday night and continue through early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1018 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

West-southwesterly flow aloft of 70-80 knots will continue across the TN Valley through the duration of the near term period, as our region will remain along the northern edge of a flat subtropical ridge extending from equatorial portions of the eastern North Pacific into the southwestern North Atlantic. Well to our north- northwest, a closed mid/upper-level cyclone is predicted to remain nearly stationary across the Upper MS Valley, as a southern stream shortwave trough (initially across southern parts of CA/NV) ejects northeastward into the central High Plains with an increasing negative-tilt. Within this general pattern aloft, deep-layer warm/moist advection across our region will be sustained by moderately strong south-southwest flow in the boundary layer that will persist as an occluding surface low (related to the closed cyclone to our north-northwest) drifts eastward from central MN into northern WI and a developing low (across eastern CO) shifts east-southeastward into central KS.

With dewpoints rising into the 55-60F range, a broken-overcast coverage of low stratus clouds is expected for the majority of the period, with modest synoptic scale ascent provided by the strengthening warm advection regime contributing to pockets of sprinkles or light showers throughout the day. Beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the overnight period, a more concentrated axis of showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will likely materialize from western portions of middle TN east- northeastward into western VA, which is the region where low-level streamline confluence will be maximized in the vicinity of a cold front (related to the low to our north) and a northward advancing marine warm front (related to the low to our west). As a result, POPs will increase from values ~10% (through early this afternoon) to 40-50% (north of the TN River) and 20-30% (south of the TN River) early Thursday morning. Regarding temperatures, daytime highs appear on track to reach the m-u 60s, followed by mild overnight lows in the 55-60F range.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1018 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Latest short range model data indicates that a mid-level shortwave trough (emerging across the central High Plains at the beginning of the period) will continue to acquire a sharp negative-tilt as it progresses further northeastward across the central Plains Thursday and Thursday night. This will support gradual deepening of the related surface low as it lifts northeastward into the Mid-MS Valley and eventually into southeastern WI by 12Z Friday. Periods of broken low stratus clouds and sporadic light showers will continue throughout the day tomorrow, as our region will remain within a well-established warm/moist sector airmass. By late tomorrow afternoon, CAMs suggest that a few open warm sector convective cells may evolve across southern portions of MS/AL, before tracking northeastward and potentially beginning to impact the local forecast area tomorrow evening. This activity will be occurring within a weakly unstable but strongly sheared environment characterized by MLCAPE of 200-400 J/kg and WSW flow aloft of 70-80 knots atop a south- southwesterly low-level jet of 35-45 knots. Thus, there is a least some concern for a modest degree of storm organization into multicell clusters, with an attendant risk for cells producing brief strong wind gusts up to 40-50 MPH. This general kinematic/thermodynamic environment will persist late Thursday night into early Friday morning as a cold front drifts southeastward through the region, with an increase in the spatial concentration of showers/thunderstorms anticipated from 5-11Z, as well as a continuing risk for a few organized cells.

Present indications are that the cold front will advance further southeastward late Friday morning before stalling along an axis from southeastern TX into the Savannah River Valley during the afternoon. Light northerly flow will advect a drier airmass into the region in the wake of the front, with dewpoints falling into the 30s and a fair coverage of high-level clouds expected throughout the day. By Friday evening, a weak frontal wave is predicted to develop across the Lower MS Valley before traveling into central AL by 12Z Saturday. As this occurs, shallow lift will strengthen north of the front, supporting another round of rain (and perhaps some elevated thunderstorms) from Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Afternoon highs will fall from the mid 70s on Thursday into the lower 70s Friday, as overnight lows fall from the 55-60F range into the m-u 40s by Saturday morning.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1018 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

It looks like a clipper system quickly re-enforces this southeastern push of the front further south Saturday evening. Models differ on how much moisture is left over the area as the clipper system pushes into the area. Left a 20 to 40 percent chance of rain in the forecast Saturday before midnight. This may be overdone if this clipper system is on the drier spectrum of possibilities. The other question is how long any low chance (10 to 30 percent) of precipitation will linger after midnight. Even if that occurs (though many models push any precipitation east of the area by Saturday evening), the temperatures profile aloft looks a bit too warm for snow. However, kept a slight chance on the back end of precipitation for a snow/rain mix just in case between midnight and 6 AM on Sunday. Any wintry precipitation would be in the form of snow if it occurs and should not amount to measurable snowfall.

It will definitely be cooler on Sunday with cold air advection in place and some cloud cover redeveloping in the afternoon. Highs in the mid to upper 40s or lower are forecast. Thinking models are not catching up to the strength of the cold air advection just yet and thus a bit warm. Sunday night into Monday look even colder, as cold air advection continues to strengthens (low off the eastern seaboard really drops its central pressure significantly aiding that process) and a strong surface high builds south to the west of the area. Lows look to drop into the lower to mid 20s with some wind chills in the upper teens with breezy conditions.

Sunny skies should help a little with temperatures on Monday, but with 925 mb temperatures forecast to -5 degrees Celsius, current forecast highs in the upper 30s to mid 40s may be a bit warm as well. Northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph with gusts between 15 and 20 mph will make it feel colder too, only in the 30s most of the afternoon.

Conditions look to quickly modify on Tuesday after one more cold night (lows in the upper teens/lower 20s). Highs on Tuesday with abundant sunshine should climb into the upper 40s to lower 50s again, as southerly to southwesterly flow redevelops. This warmup should continue into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 444 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Ceilings of 012-025agl (MVFR) will persist through most of today. There is a medium chance that they will rise to or above 030agl (VFR) by ~01Z. Any chance of -RA is very low, so have not included at this time.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.