textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected after midnight towards daybreak in locations north of the Tennessee River. Better chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected this afternoon (40-60%). Flash flooding is possible today.

- Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms (60-80%) are expected Saturday and Sunday afternoons. Flash flood and some minor river flooding concerns are expected.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area today and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A decaying MCS continues to push southeast into NW Tennessee and central Kentucky. This convection was severe at times earlier in the evening and is pushing east across northern Tennessee at this time. Good instability is in place ahead of this convective system over northern Tennessee and southern Kentucky (2000 to 3000 J/KG). Wind shear of 30 knots is also associated with the upper level disturbance with this feature in those same general areas. So far, most model guidance keeps the 25 to 30 knots of shear and the main shortwave moving more due east overnight. This should keep the main MCS development over central and northern Tennessee into Kentucky.

Luckily, northern Alabama and our southern middle Tennessee counties have been worked over by earlier convection today and with the loss of daytime heating, most guidance shows any instability fairly meager overnight (mainly 500 to 1000 J/KG maybe). In addition, with the better shear remaining well north of our Tennessee counties, not expecting severe thunderstorms to develop even if the decaying MCS can push this far south.

Expect the decaying MCS to push south around 1 AM into southern middle Tennessee and locations north of the Tennessee River. Some heavy rainfall and frequent lightning could occur as a decaying line of showers and thunderstorms pushinto those areas mentioned. Some localized flash flooding is not out of the question if that happens, but the decaying nature of this activity should minimize that.

Flooding will remain a threat into the afternoon hours, as additional shower and thunderstorms develop with additional shortwaves moving north of the area through zonal flow later in the day. PWATS are forecast to remain high (1.8 inches) and SBCAPE climbs to between 2000 and 4000 J/KG in many models in the afternoon. Theta E differences between between 3 km and 6 km layer are over 20 in several models. DCAPE values are over 1000 J/KG in the afternoon as well. Given all these parameters, damaging winds due to severe microbursts could occur (though not a high probability). The main window for severe weather still looks like it would be 1 PM to 10 PM overall. Heavy rainfall producing flash flooding and possibly some river flooding is possible.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Expect activity to become isolated to very widely scattered Friday evening as subsidence behind the trough axis passing to our southeast and the loss of daytime heating work against convective development.

However, an upper low and re-enforcing longwave trough axis shown in most guidance pushes east southeast from northern Missouri into Kentucky on Saturday. This should provide fairly strong forcing ahead of a reconstituted frontal boundary to our north. Shear with this disturbance in much guidance is between 25 and 30 knots. This marginal shear coupled with ample instability (2000 to 3500 J/KG), high PWATS, and steep lapse rates will allow for strong to severe storms capable of producing damaging winds on Saturday. The timeframe with more than one possible round of storms could start as early as 1 PM and last until around 10 PM. Highs should be hard pressed to reach the mid to upper 80s with cloud cover and precipitation expected. Again flash flooding and river flooding are possible.

Most guidance holds the longwave trough axis and upper low in place over eastern Kentucky through Sunday. Some models differ on how far south the upper low and upper level trough axis push. At least one more day on high rain chances in the afternoon and evening look likely into Sunday. This will likely create another round of shower and thunderstorms development (high chances) going. At this time, it looks like the atmospheric column becomes too saturated for severe potential on Sunday. Highs will remain on the cooler side (mid to upper 80s) with the expected cloud cover and precipitation expected. However, flash flooding and river flooding will continue to be a concern.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The first half of the long term will continue our unsettled pattern. As we step into the new work week, a weak surface low looks to be parked over the TN Valley with a stalled front draped through our CWA. Mid level riding to our north will will keep the surface features in place through Wednesday prompting medium to high rain and storm chances each afternoon. While not currently outlooked, the very moist and warm environment will be conducive for our typical summer thunderstorm threat of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Please check back for updates regarding any chances for severe weather or flooding.

One upside will be the relatively mild temperatures that will come with the higher rain chances. Highs look to remain in the low to mid 80s through the first half of the week. By Wednesday evening, mid level high pressure looks to finally sag south, displacing our pesky low and associated rain chances. Conditions look to dry out on Thursday. Lower rain chances of course me warmer temps with high reaching back into the 90s by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Showers and storms will likely be ending at the start of the period and thus opted to exclude thunder from the TAF. VFR conditions look to prevail through the night. Confidence decreases in the forecast beyond 14Z. There is currently a low to medium (20-40%) chance of storms tomorrow mid day through afternoon yet confidence is too low in timing and location to include in the TAF at this time. Subsequent updates will refine storm probabilities.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.