textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 316 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

- There is a low chance of a few strong to severe thunderstorms today. The primary hazards are gusty to damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- Beneficial rainfall is expected over the next 7 days with an additional 2-4 inches of rain forecast for most areas. Therefore, there is a low chance of flooding during this time period.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 316 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Currently, light to at times moderate showers are ongoing over much of north Alabama into southern middle Tennessee. While there has been some lightning in the storms to our east over the past hour, no lightning has been observed over our local area during this time. This activity will eventually shift to the northeast over the next couple of hours. Current radar trends coincide with Hi-Res guidance suggesting that there will be a bit of a lull in activity through mid-morning. However, by late morning/early afternoon, shower and storm activity is expected (and shown by guidance) to resurge.

Overall, not much has changed with regards to the forecast and our thinking for showers and storms today. An upper level shortwave will traverse the Southeast up from the ArkLaMiss region today. A surface boundary is also present to our north, generally over Tennessee. In addition, southerly flow has ushered in plenty of moisture up from the Gulf. In fact, model PWAT values range between 1.7-2.0 inches today, well above the 90th percentile (~1.6 inches) when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Therefore, showers and storms will continue to be efficient rainfall producers and heavy rainfall and flooding will be a concern yet again today.

In addition, guidance indicates that bulk shear values increase to around 30 knots this afternoon, along with instability values around 1500-2000 J/kg. Models also suggest that instability will become surface-based this afternoon. Thus, there remains a low risk of a few strong to severe storms, generally between 9AM-4PM today. With 0-1km SRH values over 150 m2/s2 and curved hodographs, the low risk of a tornado or two remains plausible during this time as well. Therefore, the main hazards will be gusty to damaging winds, a tornado or two, heavy downpours, as well as frequent lightning. Please stay weather aware today and have multiple ways of receiving warning information! Also, if you encounter flooded roads, Turn Around, Don't Drown! Lastly, with the high rain chances, high temperatures are expected to merely top out in the mid to upper 70s this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Yet another round of rainfall is expected Friday night into Saturday with another wave lifting through the TN Valley as we remain stuck in a moisture rich southwesterly flow. These will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. Not expecting severe storms, and we are not in a convective outlook by SPC for Saturday. Lighter coverage of showers is expected Saturday evening (20-40%) but the roller coaster will persist with higher POP chances (50-80%) returning on Sunday. With the persistent rounds of rainfall, the potential for flooding will be closely monitored. WPC has at least some part of the forecast area in a Marginal ERO through Saturday morning, and again on Sunday. Highs this holiday weekend will be in the lower 80s with sticky dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The relief from the roller coaster of showers and thunderstorms you are looking for won't be found in the Long Term. We will be in a stagnate pattern that will keep medium to high rain chances in through mid week next week. As of right now, no severe weather is expected during this time. With the persistent rounds of rainfall, the potential for flooding will be closely monitored. WPC has at least some part of the forecast area in a Marginal ERO through Tuesday. From a drought perspective, we really needed the rain, but I think we are all ready for the return of some sunshine. High and low temperatures won't fluctuate much, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s throughout the Long Term.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 558 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light showers were ongoing over portions of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee at issuance. In addition, CIGs at some sites have lowered to MVFR or IFR early this morning - these places were largely the ones who received rainfall last evening and overnight. Although a slight lull in shower/storm activity is anticipated this morning, chances will increase once again come late morning/early afternoon. A rainy and stormy day will then ensue. Expect lower CIGs through the day, but especially in the heavier showers/stronger storms (along with lower VIS). Furthermore, southerly winds are expected to increase by late morning/early afternoon to be roughly 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. Shower and storm activity then decreases this evening, along with winds. Although, shower and storm chances increase again later tonight into early Saturday morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.