textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

- A dry airmass will remain in place into early Saturday.

- A storm system developing over the southwestern Lower-48 will track across the Lower MS Valley and Gulf Coast states from Saturday night into Sunday. This will bring threats for widespread moderate to locally heavy showers and a few thunderstorms across our region.

- An increasingly warm/moist airmass will return to the region Monday-Wednesday, but with little to no chance for rainfall.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Cool and tranquil conditions prevailed over and around the greater Tennessee Valley, as surface high pressure builds over the eastern Ohio River Valley and WV/VA Appalachians. With a few to scattered passing high altitude clouds (producing partly cloudy skies), area temperatures have cooled into the upper 30s to mid 40s, with NE winds of 5-10 mph. A few more periods of scattered high clouds should move across the area in the overnight. Temperatures should become cooler, with lows falling into low/mid 30s with light NE winds.

High pressure should be centered across the Mid Atlantic region during the day Friday. With the high nearby to our east, a light easterly flow is expected. With more sun than clouds, high temperatures for Friday the Thirteenth should rise mainly into the lower 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Late tonight into Friday, an upper low involved in a trough west of Baja will move across the far SW United States and NW Mexico region. This low will result in the development of a synoptic scale storm system over the Desert Southwest on Friday. By early Saturday, or Valentine's Day, a new closed surface low over the KS/OK/TX High Plains will continue advancing eastward. This system will deepen as it draws deeper moisture from the Gulf over the weekend.

As high pressure to our NE builds further to the east across the northwestern Atlantic basin, a light SW flow should become more established. Thus not as cool Friday night with lows in the mid 30s to near 40. Clouds from the system to our west should begin overspreading across the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. A stouter SE flow and warm air advection should produce highs to close out the week into the low/mid 60s.

Showers from the system should begin impacting our far western areas Saturday afternoon. Showers should advance eastward during Saturday night into Sunday. Rain chances around 20 percent in the afternoon over far NW Alabama will increase to above 50 percent Sat evening, and to near 100 percent by Sunday morning. At the moment, widespread "excessive" rainfall is not anticipated, but amounts of around one inch are expected. There should be sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorms (embedded within more widespread showers) Sat night into Sun. Brief gusty outflow winds should be a main threat in the stronger storms. Despite high rain chances, milder conditions are expected Sat night with lows from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Even milder on Sun despite clouds and rain chances, with highs rising into the low/mid 60s. Shower activity should wind down from west to east Sun evening, and low temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A strong upper level ridge that begins over the southern Plains and Mexico on Monday shifts east into the southeast U.S. and Gulf of America through the middle and later part of next week. This will divert an active wave of shortwaves well to our northwest through the central Plains into the Great Lakes. After surface high pressure moves through the TN valley on Monday with light winds and highs in the middle to upper 60s, a steady period of low level south- southwest flow will begin Tuesday and last through the rest of the midweek period. An 8h thermal ridge of temperatures in the middle to upper teens will arrive by Wednesday. A weak surface-8h trough will drop southeast on Thursday, but will do little to surface high temperatures. Highs from Tuesday through Thursday will reach the lower to middle 70s with lows in the 50s as dew points climb into the 50s. The increase in low level moisture should result in lower clouds these days, with a very low chance of light rain or drizzle by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We are staying with a dry forecast at that time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light winds and few to scattered clouds over 10,000ft.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.