textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- Mainly low to medium (20-50%) for showers and thunderstorms are expected through this afternoon, with better chances (up to 60-80%) on Saturday and Sunday afternoons.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms are forecast across the area Friday and Saturday. Gusty to damaging winds are the main threat, along with heavy downpours and frequent lightning.

- Humid conditions persist with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon with heat index values around 100 through Saturday. Lower heat index values are expected early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 158 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

Afternoon storms will gradually wane after 00z, with model soundings showing a stout inversion forming between 03-06z. However, low chances (10-30%) for a few showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight hours, mainly along residual outflow boundaries. Lightning and locally heavy downpours will the main threats with this activity. A bulk of the convection will remain well to our north along the TN/KY border closer to the stalled front and most locations will remain dry. Otherwise, partly cloudy conditions are forecast overnight with scattered to broken bands of mid/high clouds passing through. Overnight lows will bottom out in the low to mid 70s in most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 1041 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

A generally zonal pattern should be in place for the end of the week. A series of upper systems in the westerlies will move across the area into Saturday. One of these systems is forecast to move in a WNE-ESE manner across the area during Friday. This next system should bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area. Given the system moving mainly across our northern areas, a Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) risk for severe weather is forecast, with the greater probability of storms in the afternoon to early evening. Strong to damaging wind gusts is the main threat. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also accompany the stronger storms. Before storms arrive, expect another very warm day with highs ranging from the upper 80s and lower 90s, and lows Friday night in the lower 70s. Heat index values from the mid 90s to 103 are expected.

More upper level systems are set to impact the area on Saturday. These WNW upper flow driven upper disturbances will in part help to bring another round of strong to severe thunderstorms across the area. These storms should cover more of the area with a risk of strong to damaging wind gusts. A Marginal Risk for severe weather covers all of the Tennessee Valley on Saturday. Timing on when these storms occur is uncertain, with a variety of solutions shown by the deterministic models. With more clouds and higher rain chances a tad cooler on Saturday with highs from the mid 80s to around 90, and heat indexes from the mid 90s to 101.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1037 PM CDT Wed Jul 8 2026

We will remain in a humid, tropical airmass through Saturday as zonal flow aloft is challenged by broad upper troughing over the northeast Atlantic. An increase in PVE with the warm humid airmass in place ahead will result in medium to high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms on Saturday peaking during diurnal heating hours of the afternoon. With PWAT values between 1.8-2", localized flooding could occur across areas that see multiple rounds of heavy rain. As high pressure expands across the Great Lakes, a frontal boundary will shift southward on Sunday and should bring at least a temporary relief from the humidity. Temperatures behind this feature will top out in the mid to upper 80s from Sunday through at least Tuesday, with cooler overnight lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The good news is that this will keep the HeatRisk in the Minor (level 1) category which highlights the risk for heat related illness in those who are extremely sensitive to heat and those without cooling/hydration, but will not be as dangerous overall compared to what we have experienced lately.

Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through the remainder of the long term forecast but will primarily be diurnally driven with a very low risk for any severe storms.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1151 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

VFR conditions will be the predominant flight category at both terminals through the period. The one expection may be this afternoon between 18-22z when a TSRA could impact wither terminal. Have added a TEMPO in the timeframe to account for localized MVFR conditions due to reduced ceilings and visibilities. AWWs and amendments may be needed as well.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.