textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1007 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

- High chances for showers with a few thunderstorms today that could produce a low chance for localized flash flooding.

- Cooler and drier conditions are expected at the start of this week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 216 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

A small cluster of showers was seen on radar early this morning, one of which produced a cloud to ground strike but has since weakened. While most of the area will remain dry through the early morning hours, rain and thunderstorm chances will increase ahead of a cold front after daybreak. Low stratus should keep fog at bay over NW AL, but areas east of I-65 may see patchy dense fog this morning where there are more breaks in cloud cover. No major adjustments were needed during the overnight update, and the previous discussion remains on track.

Previous discussion: A slow moving front producing showers, which sat just south of the Tennessee River earlier this evening, has finally dissipated. Mid to high level clouds overhead will gradually be replaced by a low stratus deck that is currently just to our west across MS and western TN. For the rest of tonight, expect dry conditions to persist, with the exception of some light drizzle given the low ceilings and very moist airmass. The cloud cover also will help limit fog development, however conditions are favorable if any clearing occurs late tonight. Otherwise, a mild night is in store with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s, which is around 10 degrees above climatological normals for this time of year.

On Sunday, the upper level trough axis will dig southward towards the Tennessee Valley with another shortwave riding along its base. This feature will help provide some forcing for showers later in the day. Deep layer southerly flow will help advect a tropical airmass further north with PWs approaching 2 inches. Medium to high chances for showers should develop after sunrise tomorrow along or just north of the aformentioned stalled boundary and continue through most of the day. However, the trend in the CAMs does appear to be moving things further south, which would limit precip chances across far northern portions of AL and southern middle TN. We also cannot not rule out a low chance for an isolated thunderstorm given around 500 J/kg of CAPE. That being said, given high moisture content and slow moving showers and storms, the main concern tomorrow will be high rain rates that could lead to localized flash flooding. Overall accumulation tomorrow will be between 0.5-1 inch with locally higher amounts to 2 inches. The greatest amounts will be south of the river.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday Night) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Precip chances will come to an end from NW to SE as the front finally pushes south of our local forecast area Sunday evening. A colder and drier airmass advects in from the NW bringing another taste of Fall to the local area to start next week. The dry conditions will continue both Monday and Tuesday and under plenty of sunshine, temperatures warm back into the low to mid 80s. Overnight lows will feel quite nice dropping down into the upper 40s to lower 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 1007 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Surface high pressure by the mid week should be situated over the coastal Mid Atlantic region. An anticyclonic flow rounding the western periphery of this high will bring a SE flow across the Deep South, and help continue a gradual warming trend. Despite the days getting shorter progressing trough the autumn, above normal warmth should continue for the mid and latter portions of the new week. Highs on Wed should rise into the low/mid 80s under generally sunny skies. Temperatures should creep up a tad both Thu and Fri, with highs on Fri in the mid/upper 80s. Lows Wed and Thu night should range from the mid/upper 40s in those normally cooler locations, to the mid 50s near large bodies of water. Normal high/low temperatures by Fri, Oct 9th are around 79/55.

The SE flow will gradually bring more moisture and clouds inland from the Gulf region was we near the weekend. Enough of this moisture return will also bring lower end rain chances back to the Tennessee Valley - right in time for the next upcoming weekend. The moisture should make for somewhat milder conditions Fri night with lows in the 50s, and highs on Sat with rain chances in the low/mid 80s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun Oct 4 2026

Low stratus has resulted in IFR conditions this morning at the KMSL terminal while KHSV has varied between VFR to IFR. Expect these conditions to continue through the morning to early afternoon hours before improving behind a cold frontal passage later this afternoon. Reductions to IFR conditions will become likely within heavier showers. Amendments will likely need to be made over the next 6-12 hours as conditions change during the frontal passage.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.