textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- Medium to high chances for rain and thunderstorms will continue through today.

- Heat Risk increases to Moderate Risk (level 2 out of 4) Sunday/Monday and then Major (level 3 out of 4) on Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Cloudy but warm start to the day with broken to overcast skies and temps already in the 70s. Be sure to bring a rain jacket with you today as high chances (up to 80%) are expected. This is thanks to a front hung up across the TN Valley and a shortwave sliding southeastward as well. Forecast soundings continue to suggest that the shear is the highest this morning but the instability will be greater in the afternoon hours. Throughout the day though, we will have PWATS remain above 2" keeping the profile pretty saturated and weak mid- level lapse rates. This will keep the potential for strong to severe storms low but the main threat as frequent lightning and heavy rainfall. Convection and clouds will keep the highs today only in the mid to upper 80s.

Tonight, the frontal boundary will meander and keep low to medium chances (20-40%) in overnight. Instability really drops off, keeping the main hazards as lightning and heavy rainfall. Lows will hover around 70 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 1020 AM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

In the short term we will continue to be stuck between the expansive ridge to our west and the trough that extends down along the east coast. On Sunday, drier air will filter in allowing for PWATS to finally be below 2". The meandering frontal boundary should be south of the forecast area, allowing for only low end chances of shower and thunderstorms (15-30%). The increase in sunshine will push highs into the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat index values up to 105 degrees.

This flow pattern will funnel an MCS down from the Midwest to the OH Valley and straight into the TN Valley Monday morning or early afternoon. Forecast soundings show PWATS pushing back up to 2", having better lapse rates and decent instability. Main hazards with this convection if it holds together this long will be lightning, heavy rainfall and gusty to damaging winds. Will monitor trends for changing environmental factors and timing. This will also play a role in how hot we can get on Monday. Right now, temps should get into the low to mid 90s and heat index values up to 106 degrees. The ridge expands eastward on Tuesday which will increase the heat risk across the TN Valley. Highs will reach the low to upper 90s and heat index values could push up to 110 degrees. Heat products will likely be considered in future updates. As we enjoy the last of summer break before school starts, please ensure you continue to practice heat safety!

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1048 PM CDT Fri Jul 24 2026

The work week will be largely influenced by upper level ridging and subsequent sfc high pressure to our west, slowly shifting into the lower Mississippi Valley. In turn, heat will build into the region through the early week with highs rising into the mid to upper 90s along with heat index temperatures in the 100-109 degree range. Heat products will likely be considered in future updates this weekend, with the highest chance of one being issued landing on Tuesday. Mid week, slight relief from the heat is expected as a cold front pushes south through the area along with increased cloud cover. However, temperatures will likely still be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Confidence is low on how far south this frontal boundary will travel as it is dependent on the track and depth of an upper level trough and coexisting sfc low digging into the Appalachian region. Rain chances mid week have been kept with blended guidance- remaining low (20% or less).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 105 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will persist on and off through the day. Low CIGS and reduced visibility due to heavy rainfall will provide temporary MVFR conditions through sunset. Another round of convection is possible around 07Z but confidence isn't high on the occurrence or the timing so included it as a PROB30 at this time. Otherwise, MVFR CIGS will linger to the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.