textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop today into the evening, with localized flash flooding and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Heat index values of 95 to 103 degree range today.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern during this timeframe.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 318 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Regional radar shows a line of thunderstorms moving east-southeast through southern IN, IL into southeast MO along a cold front. This was feeding off of moisture transport within a west-southwest LLJ of 25-30kt. The CAMS have indicated varying solutions for today. One scenario is the line weakens or dissipates as it arrives in the TN Valley and loses the low level jet support and runs into a building 8h ridge. Or, the system is able to maintain or even intensify a bit during the late morning and early afternoon with daytime heating boosting CAPE values. In either case, a secondary redevelopment of scattered to numerous thunderstorms this afternoon still looks likely, especially in TN. Forecast soundings indicate somewhat favorable conditions for downbursts inverted V profiles and high potential DCAPE. Will monitor mesoscale trends closely this morning. But have kept the time window of the storms rather large today.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Active weather will continue through the weekend as upper flow becomes more zonal on Saturday but a series of disturbances are progged to bring several rounds of storms and heavy rainfall to the area. The aforementioned front is forecast to stall near the TN Valley and will continue to provide low level convergence while much of north AL and southern middle TN remains in a moisture rich airmass. This will keep medium to high chances for rain and storms in place through the weekend with the best chances during peak diurnal heating hours. While organized severe weather is not expected, gusty winds could accompany stronger storms as well as the continued risk for flash flooding. Given PWATs in the 2-2.2" range, any storms or showers that form will be capable of producing torrential downpours similar to what we saw late last weekend. Given all the recent rainfall and lingering soggy ground, it will not take long for the rain that falls to become runoff and start to cause rises in creeks and streams. Please remain weather aware through the weekend and be mindful of the flooding threat especially if you are traveling.

Hot and humid conditions continue through Sunday with afternoon heat indices near 100 degrees each afternoon. Overnight lows in the lower 70s will provide little relief from the heat.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 957 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

The primary concern for early to mid next week will be a continued risk of flash flooding due to antecedent rainfall and subsequent saturated soils. Multiple days of rainfall are forecast as a series of shortwaves traverse eastward over the TN Valley. Models continue to indicate there will be plenty of moisture to work with over the area as southerly flow will bring PWATs around 1.8-2.2", which is above the 90th percentile per BMX climatology. Therefore, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers. There continues to be model disagreement in the long term period, which greatly influences how widespread rainfall is as well as if there's a risk for stronger storms. Currently, instability continues to look unimpressive with relatively weak shear and poor lapse rates. However, depending on frontal placement/timing, this could easily change over the weekend. For now, have continued with blended guidance and urge everyone with outdoor interests to check back in for forecast updates.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 532 AM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

A line of TSRA will drop southeast this morning and reach northwest AL and southern middle TN by 15-17Z. There is a low to medium chance the TSRA will remain intact. If they dissipate, there is a medium to high chance of redevelopment of additional TSRA from 19Z-24Z. Gusty winds and +RA with lowered visibility to MVFR or IFR conditions will occur with the TSRA. After the TSRA depart, a return to VFR conditions is expected by 02Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.