textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Gusty southeasterly winds 20-25 mph expected through tonight.

- High chances for showers begin tonight with a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts up to 4 inches is expected which may result in flash flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 204 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Only small changes in the latest forecast. SPC has expanded the Marginal (level 1 out of 5) risk further to the east and now encompasses areas along and west of I-65. The main reasoning for this is the morning CAMs show instability remaining around 500-750 J/kg as the line of storms arrives from MS. Low level shear is quite impressive with 0-1km shear around 30 knots with good low level curvature that would be favorable for tornadoes. The main limiting factor appears to be the instability and how well organized the line sticks together as we head through the evening.

Previous Discussion: A mild start to the day across the Tennessee Valley with 15z temperatures in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Satellite imagery shows an northward expanding cloud deck across central AL that should overspread the local forecast area later today. So enjoy the peeks of sunshine through the clouds this morning before it goes away. Main concern during the daytime is gusty SE winds up to 20-25 mph in response to a tightening pressure gradient due to the low pressure system over the Plains.

By this evening, a cold front to the south of the aformentioned low pressure system will swing through AL bringing high chances for showers and low chances for strong to severe thunderstorms. Strong moisture advection ahead of the front should initiate a few showers this evening (around 00z), primarily along and west of I-65. The main line of storms associated with the front is forecast to arrive into NW AL around midnight tonight and slowly move across the forecast area through the early morning hours. The main concern is locally heavy rainfall that could result in flash flooding. PWs rise between 1.5-1.75 inches and combined with the slow propagation speeds, rainfall amounts of 1-2 inches is most likely with higher amounts up to 4 inches where deeper convection develops. As a result, areas in NW AL have been placed in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding.

As for the severe threat, there is an overall low risk with the greatest concern across portions of NW AL. The line of storms is expected to weaken a bit as it moves in from N MS. While shear profiles especially in the low levels would be favorable for severe storms and perhaps a few tornadoes, instability is weak and vertical profiles show tall skinny CAPE. Given the time of year, we cannot fully rule out a few strong to severe storms, but the overall risk appears quite low.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 917 AM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

The line of showers and storms will continue to meander its way slowly eastward across our local forecast area on Wednesday. Rain chances end from west to east with portions of NW AL clearing out around lunchtime and portions of NE AL finally drying out by Wednesday evening. A cooler and drier airmass move in behind the cold front bringing a nice dry day on Thursday with afternoon highs warming into the lower 70s. Another shortwave is forecast to push through the area late Thursday bringing low chances for light showers to the area. However, there is some uncertainty in how much moisture will be present with this wave, but for now kept the low chance PoPs in our latest forecast.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 938 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

We will end the work week with the passage of an upper wave early Friday morning, with some uncertainty as to how much moisture advection will happen ahead of this system. The GFS is a bit more aggressive with moisture and would result in some light rain during the early hours on Friday, while the ECMWF is drier and would likely only result in increasing clouds. For this reason we will stick with blended guidance capping PoPs near 20%, and any rainfall that does occur should begin clearing by late Friday morning. Dry weather will follow as high pressure spreads southward from the Midwest in the wake of a cold front. High temps will drop to the upper 60s/lower 70s behind this front with northwesterly winds bringing in cooler and drier air. We should also see clouds thinning through the morning hours on Friday resulting in pleasant fall conditions by Friday afternoon.

Overall the weekend looks nice as zonal flow persists aloft. High temps will reach the low to mid 60s each day with overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s. In fact, we will likely see our first frost of the season in some locations, especially those north of the TN River and in the higher terrain where current forecast temperatures drop to 32 degrees. This will be a trend to watch over the coming days, but there are still fairly significant differences regarding the upper and mid level patterns in long term guidance. Models do agree that by early next week upper flow will shift to the north as a stronger trough axis shifts east over the area, reinforcing high pressure and keeping dry, near seasonable conditions over the TN Valley.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

MVFR CIGS are already in place at both terminals at this time. KMSL has reported some very light SHRA that have not amounted to any accumulations so far. Expect SHRA to remain possible between 00Z and 004Z at KMSL and between 01Z and 04Z at KHSV (thus tempo group for both). Around 4Z, expect light showers to become more persistent at KMSL and at 05Z at KHSV. Ahead of an approaching cold front, expect a low chance of some -TSRA cold occur between 6Z and 10Z at KMSL. Then expect predominant TSRA at KMSL from 10Z through 16Z. During this period MVFR to IFR CIGS or VSBYS could occur.

A warm front ahead of the front could produce a medium chance of thunderstorms between 9Z and 13Z further east at KHSV. Thus, included a tempo group for it during that period. Around daybreak, winds may pick up to around 25 knots gusting to around 30 knots at both terminals. At KMSL, expect -RA to remain possible after 16Z. Predominant SHRA were kept in the forecast after 13Z at KHSV. There is some uncertainty whether afternoon redevelopment of storms could occur at KHSV. For now left this out of the forecast, but may need to add in later issuance.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.