textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 334 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

- There is a low chance of a few strong thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Gusty to locally damaging winds and lightning are the main threats.

- Another round of showers and thunderstorms may bring some additional rainfall and some strong storms to the area during the day on Monday.

- We are monitoring a low chance of severe storms Monday night.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 334 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

An MCS passed to the southwest of the local forecast area across central MS early this morning. The northern edge has clipped central AL stretching into portions of northern AL. A few showers have persisted in response to the outflow of the MCS, however most of the area remains dry. Based on the current observations, PoPs were reduced considerably across the area.

Overcast skies are forecast to continue through the day, limiting the amount of daytime heating with afternoon highs only reaching the mid to upper 70s. Latest suite of CAMs continue to suggest diurnally driven showers and storms developing along or near the AL/TN state line and then moving off to the east. The biggest question is how widespread are these storms as coverage varies considerably between hires models. Regardless, a few strong storms capable of gusty winds may develop given around 1000 J/kg of CAPE. Shear remains quite low therefore not expecting any severe storms this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Lows should drop back into the mid to upper 50s with drier air advecting into the area behind the front. Strong upper level ridging builds over the southeast behind the departing cold front into Sunday. This and decreasing clouds, especially in the afternoon should allow highs to still climb back into the lower 80s.

Sunday night into Monday morning some guidance depicts the frontal boundary to our south edging northeast towards NW Alabama. At the same time, some guidance shows a shortwave moving southeast through upper level flow along this front from western Tennessee into northern Alabama into the morning hours on Monday. This could produce some shower and thunderstorm activity into the area during that period. Shear does increase Monday morning to around 40 knots, but instability may lag building into the area until closer to the late morning hours. This convection may be southeast of the area by then. At this time, expecting more general to strong thunderstorm activity, but we will need to monitor this in case instability builds back in more quickly to northern Alabama.

By Monday afternoon into Monday evening models continue to show another cold front pushing east into Indiana SSW into northern Mississippi and southern Arkansas. Some storms could push into NW AL and southern middle Tennessee by the early evening hours ahead of it. However, the strongest shear and forcing will likely be concentrated over Indiana and Illinois area by the evening hours. Stronger forcing develops on the southern portion of the front later in the evening into the overnight hours. Shear and helicity is much strong ahead of this front, but instability will be the question. However, models are showing just enough (100 to 600 J/KG) of SBCAPE over the area as this occurs. There might be a low end QLCS tornado and more widespread damaging wind threat moving into NW AL and southern middle Tennessee.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Timing continues to vary with the shortwave and trailing cold front moving east through the Great Lakes through the TN valley early Tuesday. A potential MCS will be ongoing Tuesday pushing ahead of the stalling front, including the local forecast area. We will continue to monitor the risk of strong to severe weather with these storms, but with the low level jet weakening by early Tuesday morning, this risk may decrease. Low chances of showers and thunderstorms will persist Tuesday, with greater chances once again Tuesday night into Wednesday as another trough deepens over the upper MS Valley and Great Lakes, and another strong cold front which pushes southeast through the region. More beneficial rainfall will occur with this system along with a low risk of strong to severe storms, perhaps even with locally excessive rainfall. However, it is too early to say with much certainty on the risk of severe weather depending on how much cloud cover and remaining precipitation on Tuesday hinder destabilization. Post frontal rain chances will occur through early Thursday before more significant drying can occur later Thursday. But this will be temporary with yet another shortwave pushing east through the Gulf states Friday into Saturday. At this point, the TN valley would be on the cold sector side of this system. Still a chance of elevated MCS rainfall and thunderstorms. Temperatures will be dropping back to near or below normal by the end of next week into the weekend with highs only in the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday followed by mid to upper 40s Friday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Light winds and VFR conditions to start will gradually diminish down to MVFR as lower cigs move over the terminals. Some light rain may begin to impact terminals tomorrow morning with diurnally driven thunderstorms during the late afternoon. A return to VFR is expected by the evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.