textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1202 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Medium to high (40-80%) chances of showers and thunderstorms late this week into the weekend, with locally heavy rainfall the main concern.

- Moderate Heat Risk (Level 2/4) in some areas today and Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 231 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

A scattered cumulus deck has developed this afternoon over most of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Temperatures have climbed into the 88 to 90 degree range in most areas. The clouds have been a bit more prevalent than expected and likely are keeping temperatures from approaching 94 degrees today. Some gusts to 20 to 25 mph have been observed and will continue to be possible at times through 3 or 4 PM before decreasing. However, expect highs to still reach the 90 to 93 degree range before the evening hours. Additional low level moisture will continue to move northward into the area making for a muggy night with lows only dropping into the 65 to 70 degree range in many locations. Southerly winds around 5 mph much of the night should keep fog at bay, but a few fog prone locations could see some isolated visibility reductions.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

By Friday, the overall pattern with the upper level ridging remaining over the area changes little. A weakening upper level trough axis moves into southeastern Missouri at that time. Better forcing will remain closer to that upper level longwave trough axis and to the northwest of the area primarily. However, some low level convergence will likely produce some cloud cover and the possibility of isolated to scattered shower or thunderstorm activity. Confidence is low given the weak nature of the forcing with coverage of this activity. Morning sunshine should allow high temperatures to climb into the lower 90s again. However, cloud cover will likely help to keep highs from climbing to or above 93 or 94 degrees. Heat index values will again top out in the 95 to 100 degree range as dewpoint values climb into the lower 70s.

The longwave trough axis continues to weaken in most model output as it slowly moves east into the Tennessee Valley Friday evening int Saturday. At least scattered showers or a few thunderstorms will remain possible. Cloud cover and possible precipitation will likely keep highs in the mid to upper 80s. WPC has placed much of the area under a Marginal Risk (Level 2/4) for excessive rainfall impacts, meaning that a low chance of flooding will be possible late Saturday night into Sunday, with locally heavy rainfall occurring with some of this activity (thanks to PWATs near 2").

As we move from the late evening into the early morning hours on Sunday, a second impulse moves southeast into the base of the longwave trough axis over the Tennessee Valley. This will help to increase the strength of forcing along and ahead of this feature over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This stronger forcing will move east across the area through the early afternoon hours and should shift heavier precipitation southeast of the area by the early afternoon hours on Sunday.

Some lingering isolated to scattered rain is possible in our southeastern counties into the evening hours on Sunday. Drier air should drop lows into the mid 50s to lower 60s again behind the front.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Wed Oct 1 2026

In it's wake, expect a cooler, drier air mass to move in early next week and a surface high building in from the north. This will mean beautiful autumn weather for the first week in October, with highs in the lower 80s and lows in the low to mid 50s. A few models hint at isolated light rain showers developing along a re- enforcing cold front early next week. An isolated chance (~ 20%) was kept in the forecast to account for this Monday and Tuesday in our southern counties.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 834 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected to continue across the region this evening, featuring a scattered coverage of high based Cu and Ci along with a SE wind of 5-10 kts. However, a persistent 15-25 knot SSW low-level jet will contribute to gradual moistening in the low- levels, perhaps allowing for a period of broken MVFR stratus in the 10-14Z timeframe. Current thinking is that cloud bases will progressively rise back to low-VFR levels throughout the late morning hours, but broken stratus is expected to persist for much of the day. As a prefrontal wind-shift axis begins to drop southeastward into the region tomorrow aftn, a few SHRA/TSRA may occur (especially from the AL-TN border northward), but anticipated coverage of convection invof the terminals is too low to include in the forecast at this point.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.