textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 949 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- Moderate to high chance of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight.

- A Marginal (low) Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night with the primary hazard being hail.

- A colder airmass will return to the area late Saturday night and continue through early next week, with a very low chance of a few rain showers Saturday evening.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Temperatures after record tied or broken highs (77 at KHSV and 79 at KMSL) today have dropped into the upper 60s to lower 70s at this hour. A cold front extends southwest into NW Tennessee and SE Missouri from a surface low moving into the Ohio Valley.

A larger area of convection has developed ahead of the surface low along multiple warm fronts through Illinois into the Ohio Valley. Intense shear and helicity is in place ahead of this storm system from the Ohio Valley southwards into the Tennessee Valley. 6 PM soundings show a better environment concerning elevated CAPE in place over Nashville, TN ahead of the front. There is some question based on the Birmingham, AL 6 PM sounding whether the atmospheric profile of elevated CAPE is as favorable for strong to severe storms further south.

However, deterministic model output in soundings from the RAP13 indicate the possibility of 500 to 800 J/KG of elevated CAPE may be in place as the front moves into areas near I-65 and further east between 9 PM and 2 AM. Very good shear is shown along with strong helicity. Luckily, soundings are not surface based though. However, wet-bulb zero values in RAP13 do drop to between 8500 and 9,500 feet during that timeframe in soundings. Given strong lapse rates between 6.5 and 7.5 degrees/km, some large hail may be possible in this window, if forcing associated with the front can push that far east by then. After 2 to 3 AM, elevated CAPE lessens significantly and lapse rates do as well.

Based on current tracking of the convergence area ahead of the front, it looks to approach NW Alabama between 1 AM and 2 AM. So, as long as convection doesn't fire well ahead of it, the window for any severe storms would be very minimal and very conditional. Do expect a line of scattered to more numerous showers and likely some thunderstorms to move through between 2 AM and 6 AM though. After 3 AM, though chances of any stronger storms looks extremely low.

Some showers and maybe an elevated thunderstorm may linger past daybreak on Friday before pushing southeast of the area by 8 or 9 AM. Not much really cold air is upstream behind this front. The airmass will be drier and a bit cooler though. Temperatures after some morning cloud cover should climb back into the mid to upper 60s though (warmest air south of the TN River).

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Lows on Friday night despite some lighter winds, will not cool down too much as another stronger cold front pushes southeast towards the Tennessee Valley and cloudy conditions return. Lows should only drop into the 45 to 50 degree range primarily. Medium to high precipitation chances return ahead of the front. Good shear is shown ahead of this system as well. However, most instability looks like it remains near and south of central Alabama. That being said, a few stronger storms maybe producing gusts winds and small hail could occur south of the Tennessee River.

The approaching front weakens towards daybreak on Saturday and stalls near the area, before another re-enforcing cold front pushes southeast from the Great Lakes and northern Plains regions towards the Tennessee Valley Saturday afternoon/evening. It looks like a decent amount of sunshine should help temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 60s again, despite mostly cloudy conditions push into the area late in the afternoon. Models differ on the moisture available for this front to tap into ahead of it. Many models produce no precipitation or extremely low chances (<25%) of precipitation ahead of it during that period. Any precipitation should be in the form of rain if it occurs.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Thursday) Issued at 949 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

At the start of the extended period, shower activity associated with a secondary system that impacted the area should be positioned east of the region. It should continue advancing further to the east, as cold high pressure builds in from the NW. This high originating from the Arctic featured maximum pressure of 1060 mb corrected to sea level which is indicative that much colder air will be heading our way. Despite plenty of sun, a chilly day can be expected Sunday with highs only in the mid/upper 40s. NW winds of 5-15 mph with higher gusts will produce wind chill values 10 degrees or so colder. As the high moves in, winds should decrease Sunday night. The temperature will also drop, falling into the low/mid 20s. With cold air firmly in place, highs on Monday will only rise into the lower 40s. A bit colder Monday night with lows around 20. Not as cold conditions are expected Tuesday with highs rising to around 50. The surface high by this time should be moving across the area.

A moderation in temperatures is forecast for the midweek and beyond, as the high moves across the east coast. A return southerly flow rounding the western side of the high will result in milder conditions for the Tennessee Valley, with highs in the mid week back rising to around 60. A moisture return from the Gulf of America, and an approaching cold front from the west will return showers chances to the area. New output from the blends in this time have kept the precipitation thunder free. Shower activity was also on a slightly later start. A milder trend continues Wednesday night into Thursday. Lows Wednesday night should range in the 40s, with highs Thursday in the lower 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1049 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for a majority of the TAF period. Gusty SSW winds will continue at the start of the period with gusts up to 20 KTS. Around 8Z, a broken line of showers will enter NW AL and move through the area through 11Z. Showers that move directly over the terminal may briefly lower ceilings and visibilities. After the broken line passes, VFR conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.