textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

- A round of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to develop over portions of NW Alabama to near the I-65 corridor and south of the Tennessee River between 3 PM and 9 PM this evening. Large hail and damaging straight line winds are the main threats.

- A warming trend is expected through this weekend with our next chance of rain returning early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 131 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The weak cold front has shifted slightly further south to roughly from NE Jackson county through southern Colbert county in Alabama. A weak area of low pressure over the past few hours has developed over south central Arkansas in response to a stronger disturbance aloft approaching that region from the west aloft in 500 mb flow.

The embedded disturbance looks to be the impetus for the development of a cluster of strong to severe thunderstorm activity that could impact portions of northern Alabama southwest into central Alabama and central Mississippi (mainly near and west of the I-65 corridor and south of the Tennessee River). The Storm Prediction will likely be issuing a watch within the next hour or two for the expected development of large hail and a lower risk for straight line wind gusts of at least 58 mph. The watch would likely impact mostly NE/central Mississippi ESE into central Alabama. This looks like it could include southwestern portions of NW Alabama into Cullman county, AL (mainly near and south of the TN river). The main threat with any severe storms will be large hail (maybe up to 2 inches in diameter). The watch is expected to be a severe thunderstorm watch.

Surface and elevated CAPE of at least 500 to 1000 J/KG, strong shear (0-6 km shear around 50 kts), strong mid level lapse rates (7.0 to 8.0 degrees/km) will be in place. This activity should push southeast as the embedded disturbance aloft moves southeast and kicks the surface front further south early this evening. This should push convective activity southeast of the area between 7 and 9 PM CST.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1047 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

A large but muted longwave trough will continue to induce mostly zonal flow across the eastern CONUS as it slowly translates eastward over the next few days. On Friday, an embedded mid-level shortwave trough will shift southeastward into the TN Valley promoting dry, clear conditions while reinforcing the weak northerly flow pattern at the surface. Clearing skies by early afternoon on Friday will promote adequate sfc heating allowing high temperatures to rebound into the m60s-u60s across the region.

As the main longwave trough axis translates through the region Saturday, a rather unorganized sfc pattern will evolve with a weak surface high pressure system taking prominence over the area. Continued clear skies and light winds at the surface will promote a large diurnal temperature variation Saturday with highs in the l70s and lows in the l40s-m40s. On Sunday a similar pattern will unfold with perhaps slightly cooler high temps in the u60s-l70 due to increasing cloud cover ahead of an upper-level shortwave approaching the TN Valley.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

As an upper level shortwave approaches from the west, low to medium chances of rain (20-40%) return to the forecast early next week. Uncertainty continues in the timing of rainfall due to model disagreement, so have continued to stick with blended guidance. However, trends have hinted that the boundary may stall over the area, which will bring prolonged chances of rainfall if realized. By mid week, a lull in precipitation is forecast as upper level ridging begins to shift into the area. A potential low pressure system is forecast to form in the southern Plains by mid week before continuing northeastward. Despite this occurring beyond the long term window for the forecast, it will be something to keep an eye on for potentially heavy rainfall next weekend. For those with outdoor interests, be sure to check back in for updates as we progress into next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 446 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions continue through the evening hours at both KMSL and KHSV as thunderstorms continue to shift eastward within the vicinity of both terminals. Storms should gradually diminish by 03-05Z and VFR conditions should return to the area by Friday morning.

CLIMATE

Issued at 410 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included northwestern and north-central Alabama, and southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Heavy Precipitation for March 6th through 10th. There is a 40-60% chance for precipitation to reach or exceed 2 to 2.5 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.