textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

- Showers and thunderstorms will tend to be favored over northern/northeastern areas for the next few days, but best chances will be on Saturday afternoon along with a marginal risk of severe weather.

- Major (Level 3 of 4) to Extreme (Level 4 of 4) Heat Risk develops Sunday into Monday and continues through next week with Heat Index values of around 100 to 109 degrees each day.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 313 AM CDT Fri Jun 26 2026

No major changes from the previous AFD, however, a few storms are now being observed in northern Mississippi slowly shifting eastward. Most of the CAMs are not initializing well, however, the ones that do show activity in this vicinity continue to have it weaken as it approaches our area. There is a low-medium chance a few showers with a low chance of producing lightning will graze portions of NW AL before fully dissipating as they approach the I-65 corridor. As a result, PoPs have been slightly raised (but remain very low) this morning. Additionally, patchy fog continues to be likely in isolated locations. Any fog that does form will dissipate shortly after sunrise.

Previous AFD: A quiet weather evening is unfolding across the forecast area this evening, with muggy conditions in place as dew points are mostly in the lower 70s. Generally small showers that developed earlier today have all dissipated in the weakly-forced environment. A small cluster of showers/storms in northern Miss (and still west of Oxford as of this typing) is moving slowly NEWRD, but would appear to have low chances of moving into northern AL. A broader area of more significant shower/storm activity is located farther north in the OH Valley along a stationary front. This activity will remain well to our north overnight. Given the increased dew points, temperatures are expected to fall into the upr 60s to low 70s overnight.

On Friday, the polar jet and the afore-mentioned stationary front will remain well to our north. However, sheared vort maxima embedded in the upr westerlies will move into the region later in the day on Friday. Although the better dynamic forcing will be located to our north, this may help to enhance lift in an area of broad (but weak) low-lvl mass convergence as observed in near surface streamlines. The result could be a few showers/storms developing again during the day. Chances would be favored in northern areas, but the current depiction in NBM guidance may be a bit too low. Vertical thermal profiles suggest some strong updrafts could occur, but storm organization would be lacking in the weakly sheared environment.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

As we transition in the short term, a low level jet on the southern/warm side of the OH Valley front will move partly into the area. The enhanced moisture advection should help maintain isolated/scattered shower and storm chances overnight into Saturday morning, but mainly in northeastern locations (focused in Middle TN). Further development may occur as the stream of sheared vort maxima continue to affect the area alongside building instability. Steepening lapse rates ~700-600 mb (associated with EML) and increased low-lvl moisture will yield CAPEs ~2500 J/kg during the afternoon. Thermal profiles indicate max/min theta-e differences increase significantly during the day, and along with high PWs may be supportive of downbursts, but low-lvl lapse rates appear to be lacking. Forcing will be better in NE parts of the area, and thermo parameters and prospects for some strong activity has resulted in the placement of that part of our area in a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms.

By Sunday, a broad pattern change will begin to occur as a trough digs into the West CONUS with downstream ridging taking shape in the Miss Valley region. This will lead to the start of a prolonged period of heat across the region. Temperatures on Sunday will climb further with high temperatures expected to max in the low/mid 90s across the area. This, combined with high relative humidity values and high insolation will accordingly lead to high heat index, HeatRisk and WBGT values. The combination may necessitate the first round of heat-related products for this warm season.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

The global models are in general agreement that a broad ridge will hold sway across the OH/TN Valley region throughout next week as an Omega block appears to take shape across portions of North America. This will lead to a rather oppressive heat event with daily temperatures likely reaching the mid/upr 90s each day amid ongoing high dew points/humidity. Adding to this, insolation will tend to be high each day with light winds only exacerbating the situation. Heat-related products will probably be needed through the period. For those of you with outdoor activities or work next week, plan accordingly.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV.

CLIMATE

Issued at 605 PM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

Moderate to High Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the Tennessee Valley in a High Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 3. Therefore, there is a 60-80% chance for temperatures above above the mid 90s and Heat Index values above 105 degrees F during this period.

The Climate Prediction Center has included the Tennessee Valley in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for July 4. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures above above the mid 90s and Heat Index values above 105 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.