textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1010 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

- High chance of showers and a few thunderstorms tonight and again Friday night, with a low chance of showers lingering through Saturday night.

- A Marginal (low) Risk of strong to severe thunderstorms Friday night with the primary hazard being hail.

- A colder airmass will return to the area Saturday night and continue through early next week, with a very low chance of precipitation transitioning into a rain/snow mix overnight Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Southwest flow will persist aloft over the Tennessee Valley today, with a cutoff low traversing the Midwest and into the Great Lakes region through tonight. Meanwhile, a surface low pressure system will pivot from the central CONUS up towards the Great Lakes through tonight as well. A trailing cold front associated with this system looks to approach the local area this evening and shift to the south later tonight into early Friday morning. Overall, very light showers/drizzle are ongoing this morning. With low clouds anticipated through at least early this afternoon, light drizzle may accompany them off and on during this time. With cloud cover today as well as increasing moisture and WAA ahead of the cold front, it will be warmer than we've seen recently. Highs are forecast to reach the lower to mid 70s this afternoon with lows later tonight in the 50s.

The main shower/storm activity (60-80%, medium to high rain chances) is expected to start later tonight, closer to midnight, when a relatively thin line of showers moves into northwest Alabama. This will be something to watch through the day, as bulk shear shown by Hi-Res guidance ranges between 50-60 knots with a LLJ around 40 knots. One question will be instability, since guidance indicates little to no surface-based instability with any elevated instability mostly topping out around 500 J/kg. The bigger question will be if a capping inversion shown by model soundings is overcome. Ultimately, confidence in this occurring is very low. Therefore, confidence in any severe weather tonight is low as well. If any storms do occur, embedded, elevated, thunderstorms are more probable as the aforementioned line moves through. Gusty winds would be the main hazard with any storms that do develop.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Friday Night) Issued at 1010 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

The previously mentioned upper low looks to continue to progress over the Great Lakes on Friday, with several subtle shortwaves traversing the Mississippi River and Ohio valleys as well. The cold front that is slated to sag into central Mississippi and Alabama late tonight will eventually stall over these areas for Friday.

The line of showers and embedded storms discussed above is expected to exit the local area to the southeast Friday morning. Further rain chances will then hold off for much of the day, at least until the evening. Hi-Res guidance suggests that shower and storm activity will begin between mid to late evening, moving up from the south and overspreading north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee into the overnight period. What we will be watching is the strong to severe thunderstorm potential during this time, as SPC has our entire local area outlooked in a Marginal (low) Risk of severe storms, mainly for Friday evening and overnight. The main hazard associated with this risk is hail, with a low chance of gusty to damaging winds as well. While model shear values are strong, instability will be the big question with regards to severe hail formation. Confidence is low since the instability shown by guidance does not look impressive at this point. We will continue to monitor trends, but please stay weather aware and make sure to have multiple ways of receiving warning information Friday night!

As for temperatures, a very slight cooldown is forecast but it will still be fairly mild for this time of year. Highs are therefore anticipated to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s Friday afternoon with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 40s Friday night.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Wednesday) Issued at 1033 PM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

An upper low complex now over the western North American domain, as we go through the weekend will move eastward while amplifying. This should result in pronounced troughing across the eastern portion of the continent, with upper ridging over the western CONUS next week. With the Tennessee Valley being under a NW flow rounding the western portion of troughing along the east coast, much colder weather is expected for the first half of next week. With the upper system, a surface low that has formed over the central Front Range should deepen as it moves over the Great Lakes on Friday. Another area of low pressure at the surface should form over the central High Plains, and move towards the east coast by early next week, becoming a nor- easter type system.

Post-frontal showers will continue Saturday and Saturday night, with the ones Saturday night more associated with a area of low pressure traversing in a west to east manner across the southern states. While this is occurring, colder air wrapping in behind the lows as they head further to the east will filter into the area. As such, a rain/snow mix is possible over our north and east areas before daybreak Sunday. Any changeover should be brief before it moves east of the area during the day Sunday. After falling to around freezing towards daybreak Sunday, highs later that day will only rise mid to upper 40s. A NW wind of 10-20 mph will make it feel 5-10 degrees colder most places despite the sun returning.

A dry and chilly period for the first half of the new week is expected, as high pressure from the Arctic regions north of Alaska and NW Canada filters southward. Thus chilly conditions are forecast Sunday night, with lows both Sunday/Monday nights falling into the low/mid 20s. Under mostly sunny skies, highs Monday should struggle only into the lower 40s. A bit warmer on Tuesday with highs rising to around 50. A moderation of temperatures continues as we go into the mid week. Lows Tuesday night should range in the upper 20s to lower 30s, with highs on Wednesday in the upper 50s to around 60. Clouds will also be on the increase for the midweek as a clipper like system approaches from the NW.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 434 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

VFR ceilings will transition to MVFR (015-025agl) at much of the area by 16Z. Ceilings should recover back to VFR NLT 00Z when scattered SHRA develop along and ahead of a cold front. South- southwest winds will gust at 20-25kt today ahead of the front. The front will arrive by 07-09Z shifting winds from south to west-northwest.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.