textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1201 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

- A cooler and drier airmass will filter into the region through late week. Highs will fall into the lower-mid 80s with lows in the mid 50s-lower 60s Thursday through Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 203 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Low altitude stratus was slowly eroding from SW-NE across northwest and north central Alabama. The eastern edge of the stratus was noted from west of Monteagle, to Gurley, and Arab. East of the stratus, more cellular scattered clouds were noted. A few showers were also forming in this airmass, especially across portions of eastern Tennessee and NW Georgia. The stratus has made a big difference regarding temperatures across the region. As of 2 PM, temperatures over NW Alabama were only around 71 degrees, about 21 degrees cooler than yesterday at that time. It was close to what was experienced yesterday in more sunny NE Alabama with temperatures around 86 in Scottsboro.

Mesoscale models were still showing some convection forming over portions of NE Alabama and adjacent middle Tennessee. Although a Marginal severe risk has been removed, some of the storms could become strong with strong outflow wind gusts the main threat as we go into the late afternoon and early evening. Shower activity should wind down as we progress into the evening. The cooler airmass in place will show its true colors tonight, with low temperatures tumbling into the low/mid 60s. Light winds and skies gradually clearing will be favorable for the formation of late night fog, mainly in fog favored spots and in/near locations that receive wetting rainfall.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 939 AM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

The setup for tomorrow is similar to today, minus the Marginal Risk for severe storms in NE AL. Coverage of showers over the terrain will be much spottier tomorrow and may only clip very far Ern portions of Jackson/Dekalb Counties in NE AL and Franklin County in Srn Middle TN. Several short-term models show the convection remaining to our E in SE TN/Nrn GA, missing us entirely.

The bigger story for the rest of the work week will be the much drier air in place and the lower afternoon high temperatures. Instead of the middle to upper 90s that we've suffered through so far for much of the month of September, a reprieve is on the horizon. Aftn highs Thu - Sat will generally be in the lower 80s east/middle 80s west (with even a few upper 70s for highs on Thursday in far NE AL!). Max Heat Index values each day will be in the lower/middle 80s as well, so be sure to get out and enjoy it! No rain is in the forecast and a beautiful weekend is taking shape across the TN Valley for the last weekend of September.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 840 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The main talking point in the long term will be monitoring the progression of the aforementioned low pressure system as it shifts northeastward out of the area. Ensembles have the Tennessee Valley remaining ahead of an upper level ridge to the west, supporting dry conditions through Tuesday. Depending on the progression of these systems, the end of the long term could bring low chances of rainfall back into the forecast as early as Tuesday afternoon as the ridge progresses east of our area. Confidence remains low in rain chances, so have continued with blended guidance for now. Otherwise, along with the approaching ridge, a gradual warming pattern will be in store for us. Highs are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s again Tuesday after being limited to the low to mid 80s through most of the weekend. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50s through the weekend, which will be a welcomed change after the above normal pattern we've experienced the past several weeks. Don't break out the hot chocolate yet- the Climate Prediction Center continues to outlook the Tennessee Valley in above normal temperatures through early October in the 8-14 day period. On the bright side, no heat products are on the horizon for us through at least the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Stubborn low clouds continue lingering at both KMSL/KHSV terminals at midday, and the trend is for them to slowly dissipate from SW to NE thru the mid/late evening hours. MVFR conds are expected overnight at both terminals by this point, with some further deteriorating CIGs by sunrise back into IFR category. Ceiling heights between 800-1000ft are expected, but with sunrise Thursday morning, skies will scatter out through midday, giving way to MVFR conds (CIGs ~1500-2000ft) by this time tomorrow.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.