textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

- Medium to high chances of showers and low chances of thunderstorms are forecast tonight through Thursday as a cold front pushes through the Tennessee Valley.

- A warming trend is expected through this weekend with our next chance of rain returning early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 213 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Current 2 AM radar shows shallow showers and low clouds traversing east across the TN Valley. These showers are supported by weak lift ahead of an approaching mid level short wave and associated surface front. Along and ahead of the front, SW surface flow remains keeping our temps and dew points in the 50s and 60s. The warm and moist boundary layer will support a gradual increase in instability along the leading edge of the front. HREF guidance continues to indicate that a few hundred J/KG of CAPE will develop along the front in western TN allowing for a slight increase in storm activity just before sunrise. While early morning storms are not forecast to be severe, lightning, small hail, and heavy rainfall will be possible among the strongest storms as the disjointed line of storms enters NW AL just before sunrise.

Storms will continue to move SE through the area as the morning progresses. To our south, the SW flow and lack of morning rain will allow for destabilization by mid morning. With HREF models showing a recent uptick in forecasted instability this afternoon, SPC has introduced a Marginal Risk for central AL. This Marginal Risk clips portions of Cullman county. Regardless of the actual boundaries of the SPC risk, it speaks to a broader trend in the models. Through the afternoon the additional destabilization for areas south of the line of storms will allow for storms to intensify as they move into an unstable environment. Locally, we will have to watch the SW progression of storms. Should storms take longer to move through our CWA, our southern counties may be able to realize some additional CAPE increasing their severe risk. If rain and storms dominate most of the area for most of the morning, the severe threat will remain to our south. If some destabilization is realized in our southern counties, the main threat will be hail as lapse rates rise close to 7 C/km. Rain and storm chances will drop off significantly after the disjointed line of storms moves through. By mid afternoon storms will shift to our south with gradual clearly forecast from the NW.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday Night through Saturday Night) Issued at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

The aformentioned cold front is slated to push to our south Thursday evening. Most Hi-Res guidance agree that much of the reinvigorated shower and storm activity Thursday evening/night will be concentrated to our south as the cold front sags over central Alabama. Therefore, lingering low chances (10-30%) of showers are forecast for our local area in the evening, especially along and south of the Tennessee River. Surface high pressure will build into the region in the wake of the front, with no rain forecast for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee through Saturday night. In fact, skies are expected to be mostly clear from Friday through Saturday night. The surface high pressure and ample sunshine will aid in highs reaching the lower 70s on Saturday! As for lows, a cooldown into the lower 40s is anticipated by Friday night due to FROPA. However, moisture will increase once again ahead of the next front/chance of showers early next week. Therefore, lows Saturday night are expected to be warmer, in the mid to upper 40s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 952 PM CST Wed Feb 25 2026

As an upper level shortwave approaches from the west, low to medium chances of rain (20-40%) return to the forecast early next week. Uncertainty continues in the timing of rainfall due to model disagreement, so have continued to stick with blended guidance. However, trends have hinted that the boundary may stall over the area, which will bring prolonged chances of rainfall if realized. By mid week, a lull in precipitation is forecast as upper level ridging begins to shift into the area. A potential low pressure system is forecast to form in the southern Plains by mid week before continuing northeastward. Despite this occurring beyond the long term window for the forecast, it will be something to keep an eye on for potentially heavy rainfall next weekend. For those with outdoor interests, be sure to check back in for updates as we progress into next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

MVFR ceilings associated with ongoing showers and storms will continue through most of the morning. Showers and storms that move directly over the terminals will have the potential to briefly lower ceilings and visibilities. The cloud deck will lower to IFR before improving back to MVFR by midday. Will rain and storm chances will decrease through the afternoon, VFR conditions won't return until at 6Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.