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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 935 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

- Rain chances returning Wednesday before much colder air arrives Wednesday evening and night. - Monitoring Friday night for a low chance of a brief window of a rain/snow mix. No accumulations are anticipated at this time.

- Periodic rounds of much colder air are expected to continue into next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday night) Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Afternoon highs in the lower 60s today will feel warm compared to what is in store for the rest of the forecast package. Tonight will also feel mild with lows mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Breezy southwesterly winds gusting 10-15kts with increasing cloud cover throughout the night will help the temps from falling any further.

On Wednesday, a trough will extend from Canada, through the Great Lakes, and down into the Southeast. Models have trended to place the sfc low placed farther north, now centered up in Quebec, but still has its associated cold front piercing the Southeast on Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall ahead of the front will move into NW AL Wednesday morning and slide eastward throughout the day. The cold front as mentioned is expected to move in during the afternoon hours, and precip chances will decrease with its passage into the evening. Models continue to show that the precip will be out of the forecast area before the freezing temps arrive. If there is any overlap, it would be a very brief rain/snow mix for NW AL and S Mid TN. Winds will be breezy during the day (gusts up to 15 mph), but pick up overnight, with gusts reaching 20-25 mph. This will help dry outdoor surfaces, however still use caution when driving in case there are any spots that become slick. Lows will be around 20 degrees, but the wind chills will make it feel like it's more in the teens.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Starting off on a bitterly cold note Thursday with temps around 20 degrees, but wind chills in the teens. Ensure that you dress in layers to stay warm, and check on others, including outdoor pets. Breezy northwesterly winds will finally slack in the late afternoon hours once sfc high pressure builds in. The drier air that also filtered in behind the strong cold front will produce mostly sunny skies and keep conditions dry. The sunshine won't override the CAA, as daytime highs will struggle to get out of the 30s. Yep, you read that correctly, the 30s. Lows will be in the 20s but with breezy winds returning overnight, it will once again feel like it is in the teens.

High pressure will get pushed eastward on Friday as the next trough swings into the Midwest and Great Lakes. The sfc low will be up over the Great Lakes, but the associated cold front will drape through the Midwest and along the MS Valley. The increase in pressure gradient will return breezy conditions with southwesterly gusts up to 20 mph during the day that will help push highs towards 50 degrees. Ahead of the cold front, there will also be an increase in cloud cover and a low chance (20%) of rain Friday evening into Friday night with the frontal passage. There is a low chance that freezing temps catch up with the precip exiting the forecast area, providing a brief window of a rain/snow mix, no accumulations expected at this time.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 935 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The long term will generally consist of a CONUS-wide upper trough, with shortwaves moving along it through early next week. The main one that will impact our region looks to push through this weekend, with northwest flow then maintained through early next week. At the surface, a cold front is expected to swing over the Southeast by Saturday morning. Guidance indicates that much drier air will filter into the region behind this feature, especially by Sunday into Monday. Overall, expect no precipitation Saturday through Tuesday; however, it will be cold due to cold air advection from the northwest. Highs Saturday are forecast to be in the 40s, but with breezy conditions, temperatures will feel like they are in the 30s. In addition, temperatures are expected to plummet Saturday night into the teens to around 20 degrees! Highs on Sunday will be cold as well, not warming past the 30s. Although highs then warm into the 40s for Monday and Tuesday, lows at night will still generally be in the 20s and even dipping into the teens in some locations Monday night. Winter isn't over yet folks, so make sure to prepare for this cold weather by making sure to bundle up if heading outdoors. Protect the four Ps: People, Pets, Pipes, and Plants!

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Clear skies late this afternoon will give way to increasing clouds as well as LLWS (from the southwest between 35-40 knots) at both terminals this evening and overnight. The LLWS is forecast to span from 2/4Z until 12/13Z tonight into early Wednesday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is forecast to push through the region during the day on Wednesday, bringing rain showers as well as lower VIS in the heavier showers and lower CIGs (to LIFR) by the afternoon. Winds will also shift from the southwest to the northwest through the day, with sustained winds around 10 knots and gusts between 15-20 knots in the afternoon. Rain chances then begin to decrease by the late afternoon as the front pushes to the southeast; however, winds will remain elevated through the evening hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 530 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included southern middle Tennessee and far northern Alabama in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation for January 23rd and 24th. Therefore, there is a medium chance of precipitation exceeding 1-2 inches during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.


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