textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 440 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

- There is a 15-40% chance for light rain or drizzle tonight with less than 0.05 inches of total rainfall. - Sub freezing temperatures will move into the area towards daybreak on Sunday and continue through Monday morning.

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin counties in TN from midnight tonight through 6PM Sunday. Another Cold Weather Advisory is in effect for all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee from 6PM on Sunday through 6PM on Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Sunny skies continue across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this afternoon. The insolation and weak warm air advection in the boundary layer has allowed temperatures to climb into the lower to mid 60s in most areas. The warmest temperatures are in place south of the Tennessee River near Vinemont, AL and Albertville, AL. In these locations temperatures have already reached 66 and 68 degrees respectively.

Mostly cloudy conditions will push into the area very late this afternoon (after 3 or 4 PM) from the south and the west. This cloud cover will occur ahead of a weak surface low along the arctic cold front that stretches from the southern Kentucky into southwestern Arkansas at this time. This cloud cover pushes southeast late this afternoon/early evening towards the Tennessee Valley region. Some decent isentropic lift is seen in the saturated cloud layer ahead of and slightly behind this front as it moves further southeast this evening.

Overall, the saturated cloud layer is a bit deeper in the newest models runs than yesterday's runs. Not a lot of lift seen through isentropic lift below 285K in this cloud layer, but near the top of that layer (~295K), better lift is seen this afternoon into the early evening hours. This lift will likely lead to evaporative cooling very late in the afternoon, which will likely keep highs from reaching the upper 60s in most areas, despite abundant sunshine. Also, it looks like isolated to scattered rain showers will develop in response to this lift. Not looking at heavy rainfall, but scattered light rain showers are expected, especially south of the Tennessee River. With abundant sunshine much of the day, highs will likely climb into the mid 60s in many locations south of the Tennessee River.

New runs continue to push this precipitation and the arctic air behind the front quickly east towards the Tennessee Valley tonight. However, the truly arctic air will likely lag behind the frontal boundary and move into southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama towards daybreak. This should keep any wintry precipitation out of the forecast, as the isentropic lift even at 295K moves east of the area between 10 PM and midnight tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 1214 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

The bigger issue will be the wind chills, as a strong 925 mb jet of 20 to 30 knots develops near and just behind the arctic front towards daybreak on Sunday and remains in place through much of the day on Sunday. Sustained winds of 10 to 15 mph with gusts around 25 mph are expected due to the wind energy associated with the 925 jet aloft. This will drive wind chill values to between 0 and 5 degrees in portions of our southern middle Tennessee counties. Thus, the Cold Weather Advisory was extended back in time for Lincoln, Moore, and Franklin counties in Tennessee from midnight tonight through 6 PM on Sunday.

Not much relief is expected on Sunday as actual highs will be hard pressed to climb above the 30 degree range, except maybe in Cullman, Marshall, or Dekalb counties in AL. With the 925 mb jet remaining over the area and only weakening to 20 to 25 knots later in the afternoon, windy conditions will continue. Though wind chill values will climb into the teens in the afternoon, it is a brief respite. Temperatures will fall quickly with the loss of daytime heating and continued cold air advection Sunday night. Temperatures should drop into the 10 to 15 degree range in most locations by the evening hours. Though winds will not be as strong they still will be between 5 and 10 mph much of the night, with some gusts in higher elevations of NE AL to between 15 and 20 mph lingering through daybreak on Monday. This should drive wind chill values to around 5 degrees across many areas of northern Alabama and our southern middle Tennessee counties (A few locations such as higher elevations of NE Alabama and southern middle Tennessee could see a few wind chill values as low as 0 degrees). Thus, keeping the Cold Weather Advisory in effect for all of our northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee counties from 6 PM on Sunday through 6 AM on Monday morning.

Temperatures should warm into the low 40s Monday afternoon. However, one more cold night is expected Monday night as lows drop into the 20s. Luckily winds will be light, so winds chills will not be much of a concern.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 159 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

This warming trend will continue through mid week as a result of upper level ridging and subsequent sfc high pressure shifting over the area. While the majority of the long term period remains dry, rain chances return towards the middle or end of next week, as an upper level shortwave develops over SE Texas and a weak clipper system moves quickly southeast though the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday/Wednesday night. How much moisture this clipper system can draw north from the disturbance over SE Texas is in question by guidance. A big spread concerning that aspect of the forecast. Stayed on the lower end of NBM ensemble PoP (20-40%) for that reason.

Either way, guidance does show a stronger cold front pushing east Wednesday night into Thursday before exiting northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee Thursday night. We will continue to monitor this system in future updates. The more widespread chances for heavier rainfall remain primarily north of our area at this time (where the LLJ is stronger) with this system. However, models do show some surface based and elevated instability and just enough shear in place for some isolated to scattered thunderstorms to develop ahead of this front.

Dry weather returns to the forecast behind this front Saturday into Sunday. A big temperature drop behind this front is not expected, but it will be cooler during that period. with highs dropping back into the 50s and lower 60s again.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 546 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Clouds are overspreading north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this evening and will bring not only a low chance (15-30%) of light showers, but also lower CIGs. MVFR CIGs are forecast at both terminals by 2-4Z this evening and will persist through late tonight. Instances of IFR are possible, but confidence in this occurring at the TAF sites is low. Any precipitation is then expected to come to an end between 5-7Z, with dry (and VERY cold) weather to follow. Clouds will also begin to clear, with VFR conditions returning, around 12Z Sunday morning. The other big concern for the forecast period will be elevated winds, with sustained northerly winds between 10-15 knots and gusts to 20-30 knots developing tonight and lasting through much of the day on Sunday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 6 PM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM CST Monday for TNZ076-096-097.