textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Medium chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Low chances for strong to severe storms.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

A calm night is in store tonight as winds become light and variable and lows drop into the low to mid-50s across the valley and the low-50s over the Cumberland. However, low level clouds are forecast to move in from the southwest before daybreak on Saturday which will help keep temps from dropping much lower after 08z. This area of lows clouds (1000 to 3000 feet) is showing up well on satellite imagery pushing northeast at this time (approaching Monroe county (MS). However, as high clouds further east continue to push east, clearing will occur for 4 to 8 hours before low clouds overtake most of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Given some fairly low dewpoint depression seen in observations (1 to 5 degrees in some locations in NW Alabama and further east), areas of fog will likely form between now and 5 AM before dissipating towards daybreak.

Low-mid level clouds will remain persistent throughout the entire morning, with perhaps some breaks in the clouds before noon. Though with light flow from the SW, it will be noticeably warmer and more humid as WAA and moisture advection come in from the south. With this in mind, temperatures are still expected to reach the upper-70s to near 80 by early to mid-afternoon when the sun comes back out. Dewpoints will reach the low-60s as well.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

As we get into the later half of the weekend and into the start of the work week, our attention changes to some unsettled weather beginning Sunday afternoon/evening.

Before then, a shortwave will move into the region on Saturday, which may help to promote a few isolated showers, especially Cullman county and to the south, where dewpoints will be a little higher. Other than that, WAA and moisture advection will persist into Sunday ahead of a front moving in on Sunday night/Monday morning.

At the moment there is a Marginal risk (1/5) of severe weather across the TN Valley for Sunday into Monday morning. Some strong to severe storms could produce gusty to damaging winds,and hail. Looking at forecast soundings, there will be some instability, with SBCAPE perhaps around 1000 J/kg, which would support some updraft development after mixing later in the day. Though, storms are likely to stay mostly disorganized. Some hail could be supported with model soundings suggesting colder, -10C to -12C air at 500 mb. However confidence is low at the moment. Regardless, PoPs will be fairly high (60-70%) overnight. By Monday, the upper- level through moves out of the area and CAA begins the cool down process behind the surface front. Look for highs to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Very amplified NNW flow aloft continues behind the front early Monday evening. At the surface, a large 1024-1025 mb area of high pressure begins to push into northwestern Alabama. Winds should become light after midnight and cooler/drier air will push into the area. Lows in the mid to upper 40s (normal low at KHSV is 58 degrees) at least are expected. Given good radiational cooling setup, lows could be cooler.

This surface high spreads eastward over the northeast and southeastern CONUS during the day on Tuesday. More sunshine on Tuesday despite continuing strong cold air advection should allow highs to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly (normal high at KHSV is 80 degrees).

Also, on Tuesday, a strong upper low moves southeast through NW flow aloft from central Canada towards the Ohio Valley area. A surface front develops southwest from this upper level feature into Tuesday night through Missouri and Oklahoma. Good forcing and increasing low level moisture (though meager) ahead of that front could produce some precipitation ahead of it in those areas.

This activity will remain far north of the area into the early overnight hours on Tuesday. However, models differ shortly after that timeframe if precipitation approaches southern middle Tennessee before 7 AM on Wednesday.

Most of the mid/upper level forcing seen in current guidance stays closer to the Ohio Valley and then pushes southeast towards the Carolinas. This should be where the better chances of rain and maybe thunderstorms would occur.

However, by Wednesday afternoon most guidance does converge on some better forcing edging southwest into the area along/ahead of the surface front. Shear will be decent (40kts or so), but forcing and SBCAPE (only ~ 100 J/KG) will be very spotty and weak. Some isolated to scattered strong storms may not be out of the question, but with forcing so weak along the front, confidence is extremely low even with strong storm development.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1139 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Shortly after 06Z, low MVFR to potentially IFR clouds are forecast to move in. The MVFR cloud deck will remain for most of the morning. Ceilings and visibilities may briefly drop below MVFR at times, however confidence in timing and intensity is too low to include in the TAF at this time. Ceilings look to to lift back to VFR around 18Z with VFR conditions prevailing for the remainder of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.