textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats. The chances shift to our eastern forecast area on Friday. - Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday. - Heat Risk will reach the moderate category over the weekend. Heat index values are forecast to peak in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The low pressure system that has been impacting the local forecast area continues to drift westward across MS. Low level clouds can be seen on satellite imagery streaming northward across AL. As we heat up this afternoon, expect showers and a few thunderstorms to develop along remnant convergent bands and move generally east to west. With the center of the low further away, expect less coverage of precip compared to previous days. The main concern today is once again locally heavy rainfall that could cause some nuisance flooding. The combo of cloud cover and precip keeps afternoon high in the mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The low becomes absorbed into the southerly flow over the Plains, but the lingering weak low level boundaries will keep at least low chances of Thursday as well. The orientation of the convergence boundary will become more north-south and shift to the east of I-65 on Friday as the 8h and 5h ridges build a bit more over the central Gulf Coast northward into AR. PoPs will increase to medium-high chances with this feature on Friday as convergence increases due to accelerating northwest flow in low to mid levels. Temperatures will vary from the mid to upper 80s east of the highway 231 corridor up to the lower 90s along and west of I-65. Lows will remain around 70 or in the lower 70s during this period.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

As we head into the weekend an upper trough will dig east through the Great Lakes region, increasing PoPs and thunderstorm chances across the Appalachians digging south through eastern portions of the TN Valley. As this happens, H85 upper ridging will bring warmer temps to the area and combined with the humidity will bring an increasing risk for dangerous heat as we head into next week. Medium chances for rain will continue through the weekend before drier air is pushed into the TN Valley on Monday. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s through the extended period and combined with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s will bring afternoon heat indices to the 99-105 degree range, especially early next week. There are some model discrepancies regarding the evolution of an upper trough that could bring a fairly strong cold front into the area some time early to mid next week, and with that comes some uncertainty on if an increased coverage of rain and thunderstorms could curb a higher heat risk. At this range, we will continue to emphasize a drier (capped PoPs at 30%) and warmer forecast early next week with the main risk highlighted by a moderate to major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) HeatRisk.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 614 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are currently present and should continue through the morning. Ceilings should rise during the afternoon, but shower and thunderstorm chances increase. For now kept in prob 30 group as coverage and timing is still quite uncertain. VFR conditions return later tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.