textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 905 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

- High chances for showers with a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms with the primarily threat damaging winds and a tornado or two.

- Conditions are favorable for locally dense fog tonight and Thursday night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 905 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Radar imagery this morning shows widespread stratiform rain across areas east of I-65 with a brief break in the precip across NW AL. However, we are starting to see fine line developing along the AL/MS line, which is likely the cold front that is forecast to move through the area during the day. CAMs show showers and storms developing along the cold front with some intensifying as we head into the afternoon. Forecast instability is expected to rise to between 750-1000 J/kg, which is plenty to support some storm organization. However, compared to last night, shear is much weaker and the low level helicity is not nearly as high. That being said, we cannot fully rule out some strong to severe storms as this line moves across the forecast area with the primary threat being damaging winds and a tornado or two. Locally heavy rainfall is also another threat to keep an eye on as PWs around 1.7 inches would produce efficient rainfall. The good news is that amounts overnight were between 0.5-1 inch and the front should move quickly and not linger over the same area for too long.

Once the cold front pushes through the area, precip comes to an end from west to east later this afternoon and into the evening. A cooler and drier airmass begins to filter in tonight. As skies clear out, conditions become favorable for fog development given the light winds and moist ground conditions. Conditions will be monitored as we head into the evening to see if any dense fog products are needed.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 905 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Dry weather is forecast through the rest of the work week. Zonal flow aloft will keep conditions near the climatological norms for this time of year with highs in the lower 70s and overnight lows in the mid 40s. Conditions are once again favorable for fog Thursday night, but still unsure how widespread or dense it will be at this time. Another upper level trough digs down across the central CONUS on Friday bringing a shortwave through the area Friday afternoon. There is a lack of moisture with this wave and therefore not expecting any precip to occur. The only noticeable impact will be some gusty winds around 15-20 mph and an increase in mainly high clouds.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stronger cold air advection will occur Friday afternoon into Friday night. This should keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, despite abundant sunshine. Lows should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s primarily with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph. The winds should keep frost from forming in most areas. During the day on Saturday, cold air advection and some cloud cover will keep highs from climbing above the upper 50s to lower 60s.

We may be talking about our first taste of temperatures dropping to around freezing or just below Saturday night. It will truly feel a bit on the chilly side.

Temperatures begin to moderate slowly Sunday into Monday, as a more zonal flow aloft develops. Highs should climb back into the lower 60s while low will remain in the lower 30s to around 40 degrees.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 552 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Numerous showers and a few embedded t-storms preceding an eastward moving cold front continued heading NNE 15-20kt across the TN Valley. This activity, located between KPAH/KOWB in western KY, to east of KMKL and KJAN. This boundary should reach KMSL ~14-15Z, KHSV ~18-18Z, and far NE AL ~21Z. Model guidance hinting that destabilization could occur as the day progresses. This could result in thunderstorm development preceding or accompanying the front. Shower activity should wind down from west to east as the front passes. Minimums bordering on VFR/MVFR are expected before the front, with reductions to IFR or lower in the heaviest showers. SE winds will veer to the south this morning, then S-SW in the late morning and afternoon - mainly at 5-15kt. Winds this evening should become light/variable. The light winds, decreasing clouds, and humidity environment could set the stage for the development of fog tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.