textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1046 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

- There is a low-medium (20-40%) chances for showers and thunderstorms this evening. A few storms could produce strong winds and small hail.

- There is a high (60-85%) chance for showers and thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon and evening. A few storms could produce gusty winds and small hail.

- A cool/dry airmass will overspread the region Sunday and Monday, followed by a gradual warming trend through Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 324 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Only a few minor changes were made during the afternoon update. The main concern this afternoon continues to be a low risk for damaging wind gusts and small hail with any thunderstorms that do form west of our area and track southeast later this evening. Hi- res guidance has struggled depicting the timing and placement of convective initiation which has led to continued low confidence regarding severity and coverage overall. The main thing to watch this evening will be for a cluster of storms with embedded bowing segments where the risk for damaging winds would be the highest. The best chances for this will be north of the TN River as moisture and thermodynamic support becomes more limited in our southern counties.

We also added patchy to dense fog tonight into tomorrow morning as clouds clear the area and winds calm. Any areas that receive rainfall this evening will be especially prone to fog development tonight.

Previous discussion: Today will feature our first shot at rain in 11 days as an upper wave tracks across the TN and OH Valleys. A shrinking, narrow plume of moisture will exist ahead of this wave and will result in showers and thunderstorms across portions of the Ozarks into western TN this afternoon. We should stay dry through the day as afternoon temps rise into the low to mid 80s with breezy winds veering from the SW to W. Late this afternoon we will be watching for a cluster of storms across western TN that is forecast to dig south, clipping at least southern middle TN and portions of far north AL. Looking at model soundings, low level lapse rates are quite favorable for intense updrafts however limited moisture and weaker mid level lapse rates may limit storm maintenance and overall intensity as we head into the evening hours. In fact, these storms could dissipate after nearing the AL/TN state line and unfortunately much of north AL could miss out on any beneficial rainfall with this system. The current timing looks to be between 7pm and midnight, but this may need to be adjusted during the afternoon update as we evaluate near term trends.

Dry conditions are forecast after midnight with calming winds and lows in the upper 50s/lower 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday night) Issued at 1046 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High pressure over the southwest Atlantic will keep most of the short term forecast dry and hot with afternoon highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. The warmest day of the week will come on Friday as temps could approach records with current forecast highs of 89 at HSV (90/2006) and 89 at MSL (92/2006). A stronger storm system will approach the area from the west late Saturday into early Sunday morning and will be our best shot at beneficial rainfall through the next week. Fortunately for us the best ingredients for strong to severe storms will be over the OH Valley with model soundings in the TN Valley showing a pretty stout capping inversion Saturday afternoon. We will maintain high chances for rain (70-85%) Saturday night with a low chance for thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall amounts range from 0.6" over NW AL to 0.3" in the higher terrain of NE AL. The passing cold front will result in cooler temperatures Saturday night with lows dropping down to the mid 40s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1039 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

An upper level trough will be swinging from the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the eastern seaboard through Monday. Ridging tries to build in the wake of this through midweek, but a few shortwave ripples are shown to dive into the region from the mid Mississippi River Valley during this time. At the surface, a cold front will have passed to our southeast by Sunday morning, with high pressure from western Canada and the northwest CONUS pushing into the Southeastern states. This feature will largely maintain its hold on the eastern CONUS until it is shunted eastward through midweek by a system sweeping over Canada.

For sensible weather for the local area, there may be some lingering showers early Sunday morning from the system that is slated to move through on Saturday (discussed above), but much of the long term period looks to be dry. Although, we will need to keep an eye on Wednesday, as some guidance hints at the potential (albeit low probability) for the aformentioned upper shortwaves to bring some rain to the Tennessee Valley. Confidence is low at this point due to model discrepancies, but stay tuned!

Don't pack those jackets away for the season just yet, since it will be fairly cool to start the week. Cold air advection from the high pressure moving in from the northwest CONUS and western Canada will result in highs topping out in the 60s Sunday afternoon and forecast lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s Sunday night! Monday will be pleasant with highs in the lower 70s with lows in the 40s that night. Fortunately or unfortunately (depending on if you like or dislike cooler weather), temperatures will then begin to moderate once again through midweek. Expect highs to warm into the upper 70s to around 80 degrees by Wednesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 707 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

High-based Cu will gradually dissipate across the region early this evening, and although a light SHRA may still occur invof a sfc trough across northeast AL we do not expect this activity to have an impact at either terminal. Later this evening, we will be monitoring the progression of convective outflow associated with a complex of TSRA (currently across southwestern KY/northwestern TN). Should a mesoscale boundary drop southward into the local forecast area, a few SHRA and perhaps a TSRA may occur but at this point probabilities for convection appear highest to the north of the terminals and we will not introduce pcpn attm. Otherwise, lgt/vrbl-calm winds and mostly clear skies may result in development of patchy BR/FG early Fri morning, but given lack of rainfall today we will wait to include vsby reductions at the airports. Strong heating will support redevelopment of sct high- based Cu by 15Z, with SSW winds increasing to arnd 10 kts for much of the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.