textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 500 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- A low risk of strong to severe storms is forecast this afternoon and evening along and east of I-65. Damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning are the main threats.

- A slightly cooler and drier airmass will begin to arrive on Wednesday. Highs will fall back into the lower-mid 80s from Thursday-Sunday, with lows in the mid-upper 50s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 500 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The cloud cover from last evening has largely eroded over the past few hours. Although, recent satellite imagery shows some of these clouds starting to build back in (especially over portions of north-central and NE AL). This will be monitored, as more clearing would aid in the development of at least patchy fog since winds are calm for most locations at present and dew point depressions are low. A few surface observations have reported lower VIS periodically over the past hour or two. If you encounter fog on your commute this morning, make sure to slow down, use low-beam headlights, and leave plenty of space between you and the car in front of you.

An upper shortwave trough will swing over the Tennessee Valley today. This, and a surface front draped over north Alabama are expected to aid in the development of showers and storms this afternoon and evening once again. In fact, there are numerous storms that have already developed to our east over northwestern Georgia and over eastern Tennessee that are moving east/southeastward. While some convection tried to form along the GA/AL border, much of the activity has remained to the east. Guidance suggests that this will continue to be the trend until this afternoon.

However, Hi-Res models do not seem to be too excited about the coverage of showers and storms today. Some guidance indicates less than 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE and DCAPE as well as lower dew points (in the 60s). Although, with the aforementioned lifting mechanisms as well as remnant outflow boundaries, along with at least sufficient moisture and temperatures reaching the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, thinking that these will maintain at least low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms. Due to the location of the front, anticipating most of any activity to generally be along and east of I-65.

Some downburst parameters shown by guidance, ones that would indicate an environment conducive for strong to severe downbursts, are also a bit lacking (not meeting strong/severe thresholds). Therefore, confidence in the coverage and severity of storms today is low; but, there remains a low risk of strong to severe storms generally along and east of I-65, as outlooked by the Storm Prediction Center's Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5). If strong to severe storms were to develop, damaging winds, frequent lightning, heavy rain, and potentially small hail are the main threats. Stay weather aware today, especially if you work outside or have outdoor plans/activities! When thunder roars, go indoors! See a flash, dash inside!

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Any lingering showers and storms will gradually come to an end by Tuesday night. The cold front will stall and linger somewhere near or just south of the Tennessee River. As a result, one more night of warm conditions is forecast with overnight lows in the mid to upper 60s. The cold front finally pushes south of the forecast area on Wednesday allowing a cooler and drier airmass to filter into the region. The lone exception may be northeast Alabama as a shortwave traverses along the western flank of the upper level trough clipping portions of our far east zones with a low to medium chance of showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Further west, dry conditions are forecast with afternoon highs in the mid to upper 80s.

Finally, Thursday will be the first taste of Fall as the cooler airmass continues to advect into the Tennessee Valley. Expect afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 923 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

A Fall-like weather pattern will persist through the long term period as the Tennessee Valley sits underneath northwest flow that will continue to usher in a cooler airmass. Dry conditions continue with afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s. As we head into next week, a weak mid level ridge begins to shift into the Southeast. This should warm temperatures up a few degrees into the mid to upper 80s. At the same time a shortwave is forecast to dig southeast across the Plains. This would bring a low chance of precip during the day on Monday. However, this is quite far out and at this time there is low confidence in this occurring. Therefore, kept the NBM very low chance (5-15%) of showers on Monday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 615 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Clouds have redeveloped in the past couple of hours and seemed to largely hinder fog development at the TAF sites. Confidence is low that fog will be an impact this morning at the terminals, but this will be monitored. The main concern today will therefore be the low chances (20-50%) of showers and storms, mainly along and east of I-65 this afternoon/evening. Some of these may become strong to severe, bringing the threat of damaging winds, frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy rainfall (and also lower VIS and CIGs). This activity is expected to wane through this evening, with no rain overnight. Outside of storms, light (5 knots or less) northerly winds will prevail today through tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.