textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- After a brief period of dry weather late tonight into Saturday morning, additional rounds of rain and storms are then forecast with medium to high (60-90%) chances Sunday through Tuesday.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night-Friday, but storm coverage across our region will depend on the location of a weak stationary front.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

While a frontal boundary stalls south of our forecast area overnight, sfc high pressure working in from the north should keep the area mostly dry with the exception of a low chance of a shower or two potentially impacting southern portions of the area during the morning hours. Lingering clouds over the area should dissuade fog formation overnight. Mostly dry conditions should continue through the start of the weekend with recent CAMs hinting at a few showers developing Saturday afternoon into the evening hours primarily in NW AL and along the southern tier of counties as the aforementioned frontal boundary begins to shift northward. Highs on Saturday are forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s under mostly cloudy skies.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The primary concern in the short term period will be heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding concerns as several upper level shortwaves shift eastward into the area through the beginning of the work week. WPC has already highlighted most of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances should peak Sunday and Monday afternoons, reaching high chances (70-90%) with storm total rainfall forecast to be around 0.75-1.25" during this time frame with higher amounts in areas where thunderstorms train/backbuild (which is likely with current Corfidi upshear values). Additionally, storm motion will be relatively slow (15 kts or less), which will also contribute to the flash flood risk. If you have outdoor interests this weekend into early next week, we encourage you to check back in for updates as we continue through tomorrow.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Extended range model data suggests that a flat mid-level ridge will extend from subtropical portions of the eastern North Pacific eastward across the Gulf and into the central North Atlantic for much of the period. To our north, a longwave trough will remain intact across eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the northern Plains, Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS, with subtle amplification of the broader trough expected at times. This configuration will maintain NW flow aloft of 15-25 knots across the TN Valley, with at least a couple of convectively-enhanced disturbances predicted to strengthen large scale ascent. In the low-levels, an initial surface low will deepen as it lifts northeastward off the coast of New England and into Nova Scotia on Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the southward progression of the trailing cold front into our region expected to be retarded by a weaker surface low diving southeastward into the Upper MS Valley. A moist/unstable but weakly sheared airmass (featuring PWAT values of 1.8-2" and CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range) will exist south of the front and should support numerous thunderstorm clusters on Tuesday that will progress southeastward across the region within prevailing NW flow aloft.

Beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday night, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding precisely how far south the frontal boundary (and intrusion of drier continental air) will reside, and this will have a large impact on thunderstorm coverage during this timeframe. However, it does appear as if a developing lee cyclone across the southern High Plains will send the front northward once again on Friday, allowing chances for showers and storms to increase once again. Temperatures will change very little over the course of the period, with afternoon highs in the l-m 80s, and overnight lows in the m-u 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 553 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at KHSV. At KMSL, VFR conditions are forecast with the exception of a PROB30 group for showers and lowered vis/ceilings which could cause MVFR conditions late Saturday morning into the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.