textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

- A Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms with damaging wind and one inch hail on Sunday.

- A low risk of flash flooding exists through Monday Night.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Thus far, only a few isolated SHRA and a couple of TSRA have developing in our forecast area. Loss of heating should deplete these updrafts rather quickly. However, the stronger cluster in nearby Marion County has pushed outflow northeastward that has sparked a few more SHRA and TSRA in northwest AL this evening. An MCV that has developed from the convection over AR will slowly slide southeast into MS overnight, so won't totally rule out a few showers or thunderstorms entering far western AL overnight as well. Outside of the risk of showers and thunderstorms, patchy fog development is expected as well.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

The upper air pattern continues to change through early next week, resulting in a wet and less oppressively hot period. A trough axis will dig southeast through the Great Lakes through Ozarks and Red River Valley on Sunday, slowly deepening into an upper low over the OH Valley with a slow moving trough axis dropping southeast into the TN Valley and mid South Monday into Tuesday. This brings a weak frontal boundary southeast by Tuesday. On Sunday, stronger instability redevelop owing to a marginal risk of a few severe storms in the region (mainly from downbursts and marginal severe hail). These will be primarily diurnally driven again with some forcing aloft with the trough axis. On Monday into Monday night, the risk may evolve into more of a heavy rain threat with repeated bouts of heavy downpours at times. By Tuesday, the forecast is a bit more uncertain with the deterministic models shifting the weak cool front through the area with PWs dropping considerably. We will see what the new NBM provides, but I foresee the PoP trend dropping for Tuesday with time. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to around 90 Monday and Tuesday with some deterministic models suggesting lowering dewpoints into the 60s. Another trend we need to monitor in future forecasts.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

Not much change in the overall pattern through the second half of next week. Sfc high pressure centered across the eastern Gulf will remain nearly stationary during the extended period. This keeps the mid level ridge centered over the Southeast resulting in a warm and humid summertime pattern. The good news is that the ridge is not forecast to be nearly as strong as this past week, keeping the afternoon temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s. The main weather concern during the long term period is low to medium chances (40-60%) for diurnally driven thunderstorms. Severe storms are not expected as shear remains weak. However, with PWAT between 1.8-2 inches locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning are the main concerns. This could lead to flash flooding if slow moving storms train over the same location.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 447 PM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of the period. There is a low chance of a SHRA or TSRA through 06Z. The chance is a bit higher at KMSL so have included VCSH as a few -SHRA have already attempted to develop in this area. Patchy BR or FG is expected from 09-12Z, with a TEMPO forecast of 5SM BR (MVFR) at KHSV and KMSL. Scattered SHRA and TSRA are forecast again by 05/18Z, and have included PROB 30 groups for both KHSV and KMSL.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.