textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1136 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. The primary risks are damaging winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.

- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rain with a low threat for localized flash flooding Wednesday through Wednesday night.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Mainly sunny skies still in place across much of northern Alabama, with strong subsidence via the large area of high pressure anchored over SE Georgia. A large area of showers and a few embedded thunderstorms south of Memphis are trying to push east into the area. However, newest guidance continues to show this activity pushing into the ridge and dissipating. Dewpoint depression are very high 10 to 15 degrees at least in most areas. This will work against the precipitation making it to the ground as it pushes east as well.

That being said, given the amount of rainfall west of the area, some light to briefly moderate rainfall may occur in extreme NW AL and into southern middle TN before it dissipates early this afternoon (noon to 2 PM). Expect any accumulation to be less than 0.3 inches. Cloud cover should increase significantly around noon into the afternoon hours regardless. This should temper highs slightly, but highs will still likely reach the mid to upper 70s in most locations with good warm air advection in place.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Guidance moves another upper level disturbance aloft through weak longwave trough axis ESE this evening into Indiana and Illinois. This will produce another round of convection near and southeast of the trough axis. Given how far north this trough axis is, convection will intimate well north of the area.

However, the better forcing doesen't push into the area until after 1 AM in most guidance. Not seeing much instability in most guidance. Shear will be good, but just expecting rain and elevated general thunderstorm activity at this time. Expect this activity to mainly affect NW Alabama and southern middle Tennessee with the heaviest rainfall. Given high PWATS and strong forcing, a good 0.5 to 1.0 inch with some locally higher amounts seem possible in those areas through 2 PM on Wednesday.

Models guidance pushes this disturbance east into Georgia around 1 PM. This should allow for rainfall and thunderstorm activity to drop off.

However, an upper level low develop aloft the upper level flow amplifies over SE Colorado, during the afternoon hours and swings southeast providing a mechanism for cyclogenesis to occur. This setups up very deep and strong forcing over the southeast after 4 PM on Wednesday. Good diffluence aloft is shown and PWATS still climb to around 2 inches. Surface based CAPE recovers in the afternoon to between 500 and 1000 J/KG (maybe a bit more in our southeast counties). Strong shear continues to be shown ahead of the developing front over the area. Thus, there remains a potential of strong to severe thunderstorm development after 3 PM through midnight across northern Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee. The main threats would be damaging winds and large hahil. A tornado or two remains possible. This severe threat may end a bit earlier if we lose enough instability between 10 PM and midnight. However, a heavy rainfall threat will develop. Given flash flood guidance, not sure how much flooding we will see, but some is possible (especially if the less amplification of the upper level trough axis occurs). Most guidance pushes the rain southeast of the area by Thursday afternoon. However, lingering cloud cover could occur as the actual upper level trough axis pushes through during the early afternoon hours.

Another shot of pleasantly cooler and drier air is expected behind this frontal boundary. Highs should lower back into the 65 to 70 degree range mainly on Thursday.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1136 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026

The upper flow quickly transitions back to a zonal pattern into the weekend. A quick moving trough axis races east from Iowa into the Ohio Valley through Friday night. A weakening area of high pressure should keep the moisture and forcing with this system to our northwest.

As we move into the rest of the weekend, a new cold front develops over the Midwest and moves east forwards the Tennessee Valley area. Models diverge whether the stalled front to our south moves quickly northward at the same time. This would help to destabilize our area more and add increased and deep forcing to ahead of the approaching cold front. This could be a period we will need to keep an eye on for stronger storms and a potential flooding risk again.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1240 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

Some -SHRA will occur at KMSL through 19Z, but are then expected to move northeast of the terminal. However, VFR conditions are expected at both terminals through 06Z. Further east, not sure virga will make it to the ground that far east. Expect MVFR CIGS to become predominant with some -SHRA. A tempo group was included (HSV - 10Z to 14Z and KMSL 08Z - 12Z) fro -TSRA and MVFR VSBYS as well as CIGS. IFR to MVFR CIGS will linger into the morning hours at both terminals.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.