textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2026

- An unsettled weather pattern begins Friday night and continues through Sunday with medium to high chances (50%-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day into mid next week.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development Saturday into Saturday night.

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast into early next week (30-60%). Temperatures should slowly warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s then.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

A very nice change in the weather today with the cold front well to our south draped over the Florida panhandle extending NW into central Arkansas. Temperatures around 10 AM are only in the 75 to 80 degree range (3 to 6 degrees below their values yesterday). Much less humid today, especially east of the I-65 corridor as well with dewpoints in the mid 60s already. Sunny skies are expected through the day with highs reaching the mid 80s to lower 90s.

Satellite imagery shows very dry air aloft centered over the Carolinas extending west into Georgia and northern Alabama. This will likely mix down to the surface and lower dewpoints even more through the day into the upper 50s to lower 60s in portions of southern middle Tennessee and NE Alabama. Further west, dewpoints may only lower through mixing into the mid 60s.

Some increasing mid/high cloud cover is expected to develop tonight, as a convergence boundary (previous cold front) to our south moves northeast towards central Alabama and the MS/AL border. Not expecting widespread cloudy conditions, but partly cloudy conditions (maybe briefly mostly cloudy at times) look very possible. Lows should drop into the lower 60s (east) to mid 60s (west) again tonight.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

This boundary keeps moving northeast into the day on Friday. At the same time a fairly strong upper low pivots southeast through the western Great Lakes region. Some models hint that the boundary will push into NW Alabama during the early evening hours on Friday. Shear does not look very good (mainly less than 20-25 knots). However, instability is ample for general thunderstorm development. Frequent lightning and heavy downpours would be the main threats. Later in the evening, stronger forcing ahead the approaching upper level trough axis correlated with the upper low (then over the northern Indiana/Illinois areas) approaches the convergence boundary already moving east through northern Alabama. This increase in forcing should increase shower and thunderstorm coverage over northern Alabama towards daybreak.

The most persistent period of showers and thunderstorms looks to be Saturday morning, as the upper level trough axis associated with the upper low over the northern Indiana/Illinois areas swing east around it towards the Tennessee Valley. There seems to be more of a consensus that the showers and thunderstorms push more to the southeast of northern Alabama during the early afternoon hours. PWATS climb back above 2.0 inches, so heavy rainfall may be an issue Saturday morning given stronger forcing shown at 700 mb. However, shear does not look very impressive in the morning.

Then models are showing another round of showers and thunderstorms developing ahead of the longwave trough axis later in the afternoon. Though the best shear (around 35 knots or higher) remains east of the upper low (corresponding to an increasing low level jet), models do show 25-40 knots possibly pushing southeast into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee during the late afternoon/early evening hours. 1000 to 2000 J/KG of CAPE is in place in several models during this period. Thus, our main round strong to severe storms may occur with this second round of activity. Better helicity should remain more in northern Tennessee northward closer to the upper low. So, right now expecting a tornado threat to remain north of the area. However, given instability and shear, some severe storms capable of producing damaging winds are possible. Flash flooding will also have to be watched closely on Friday afternoon if the second round of rain/storms materializes. Very heavy rainfall rates with PWAT between 2.0 and 2.2 inches will be possible. If we get sunshine in the afternoon, highs could rebound into the 85 to 90 degrees range in NW AL. Further east, lower to mid 80s may be more prevalent. This strong to severe thunderstorm activity could last past midnight before pushing southeast of the area with only lingering light rain is still in place afterwards.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1050 AM CDT Wed Jul 30 2026

Ensembles continue to show the main upper level trough axis lingering from the Ohio Valley southward into northern Alabama through Sunday. This should keep medium shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast through then. This should keep higher rain and thunderstorm chances in the forecast and highs more pleasant in the lower to mid 80s.

Ensembles begin to diverge more Sunday night into early next week. Some guidance drops the upper low all the way south into northern Alabama (if this occurs, shear could be significant and a severe threat may re-materialize). Others keep the upper low over the Ohio Valley, but shift the longwave trough axis east into Georgia. So the forecast into early next week is very uncertain. NBM seems to be taking the middle road, keeping low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through Wednesday of next week.

At the tail end of the long term, an upper level ridge and subsequent high pressure begin to work eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley which should begin to dry out the area along with increasing temperatures yet again. Highs throughout the long term period are forecast to warm into the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s-lower 70s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1100 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

VFR conditions are expected throughout the TAF period. Some scattered mid/high CIGS around 10,000 feet should develop around the terminals tonight. Dry air should keep fog formation from occurring towards daybreak on Friday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.