textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

- A Wind Advisory remains in effect from 1 PM today through 7 AM Monday for non-thunderstorm wind gusts of 35-45 mph.

- A Freeze Watch is in effect for all of northern Alabama from Monday evening through Tuesday morning.

- A cold front will bring a line of strong to severe thunderstorms to the area tonight into Monday morning. Damaging winds and a low chance for a tornado are the primary concerns.

- Light snow will occur behind the front and some locations may see minor accumulations up to 0.1" (potentially higher in elevated terrain). Dangerously cold wind chills in the teens are expected Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Our primary concern in the near term will be a high confidence threat of severe storms ahead of a cold front tonight into Monday morning, bringing a medium-high risk of damaging winds and a low- medium chance of a tornado or two. Dynamically, a strong upper level jet (120 kt) pushes into the Tennessee Valley overnight as a deep upper level trough begins to lift northeastward through the OH River Valley. The LLJ will also be strong, reaching 80-90 kts as it moves through the area. Ahead of this, southerly flow will allow WAA and increased moisture through the area. Highs are forecast to reach the mid 70s this afternoon with dew points in the upper 50s. Due to the cold fronts nighttime arrival (entering NW AL around 8 PM), this diurnal support will drop off and instability will be limited. Thermodynamically, models depict our environment remaining moist adiabatic within the lowest 3km which will limit updraft strength as well as mesocyclone depth. In turn, tornadoes remain a low threat despite support from streamwise vorticity in the lower levels. If a tornado were to occur, it would likely be relatively weak (less than EF2) and short-lived. Shear, however, will be abundant with 0-6km bulk shear values of ~50-60 kts ahead of the line. Shear vectors are forecast to remain parallel with the frontal system, so we are still expecting the storm mode to be linear as it travels southeastward through the area. Storm motion is forecast to be 60-70 kts, so this QLCS will be very rapidly progressing through the TN Valley. However, we will be monitoring if there could be supercell development ahead of the line as it pushes eastward through Mississippi. If this were to occur, our tornado threat would increase and our timing of severe weather would shift slightly earlier.

In addition to the severe threat, a non-thunderstorm wind threat will begin this afternoon and continue into Monday morning as sustained winds reach 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35-45 mph. A Wind Advisory has been issued through all of northern AL and southern middle TN for this period. Be sure to secure loose, outdoor objects and use caution if outdoors.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 1000 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Behind the cold front, very cold air will rush into the Tennessee Valley during the morning hours- resulting in lingering rainfall transitioning to a rain/snow mix. As far as accumulations go, no significant accumulations are forecast. However, higher amounts (up to 0.5") have been the trend the past few model runs in higher elevation areas such as southern middle TN and far NE AL. Additionally, there is a low chance of trace accumulations in other portions of the area on elevated and grassy surfaces. No significant impacts are expected with this snowfall and it should come to an end by the afternoon hours. Strong CAA will likely limit highs to the low 30s, which is around 20-30 degrees below normal for this time of year. Dangerously cold temperatures are forecast Monday night as lows drop into the low 20s with wind chills in the teens. We have issued a Freeze Watch through all of northern AL to account for this. Another chilly day is in store on Tuesday as highs are limited to the 40s despite mostly clear skies. Below freezing temperatures are likely again Tuesday night into Wednesday as lows drop into the mid 20s to low 30s. Wind chills, however, will only be a few degrees cooler contrary to the previous night due to light winds. A gradual warming trend should begin on Wednesday as sfc high pressure shifts into the Tennessee Valley and subsequent southerly flow and WAA returns to the area.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Saturday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Northwest flow aloft will prevail across the TN Valley for much of the extended period, as our region will remain between a longwave trough to our east and a strengthening subtropical high over the southwestern CONUS. Although this pattern will favor dry and warmer conditions (especially with a surface ridge positioned to our southeast inducing light SW flow), a few light showers may occur on Wednesday within a zone of elevated moisture transport to the east of a clipper system and surface low over the northern Plains. Highs will warm progressively into the u70s-l80s by Saturday, and this (along with an increase in boundary layer moisture/instability) may support an increasing risk for showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms next weekend.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 641 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

An intensifying surface low over NE Kansas will move across the southern Great Lakes this evening. A tightening pressure gradient rounding this low will in part create stronger winds over the TN Valley later today and tonight. A strong cold front will near the area this evening from the west, bringing widespread showers/ t-storms. Some of these storms could become severe with wind gusts greater than 50kt and a few tornadoes. CIGS/VSBY reductions to MVFR and lower are likely in the stronger convection along with erratic gusty winds. Strong winds aloft have prompted a mention of Low-Level Wind Shear this morning, and again this evening before the front arrives. Winds, gusty this evening will veer to the SW, then west in the overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday for ALZ001>010-016.

Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM CDT Monday for TNZ076-096-097.