textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

- A lower coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected overnight, with the main concern being brief strong winds.

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will increase once again on Monday-Tuesday, with lightning and heavy rainfall/flash flooding the main impacts.

- A progressively lower coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected from Wednesday-Saturday, with dangerous heat becoming an increasing concern by Friday/Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Tranquil conditions are ongoing early this morning with only a few light showers lingering across southern middle TN. The main concern early this morning is low clouds and a potential for fog before sunrise. A few obs sites, mainly in higher terrain, have seen reduction in visibility, but it appears it is mostly from low clouds. Based on the expansive stratus deck across the Tennessee Valley, do not anticipate widespread dense fog. However, any areas that see breaks in the cloud may quickly see fog form given the very moist sfc conditions.

Later today, the upper level low begins to retrograde to the west. Medium to high (60-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast late this morning and continue through the afternoon. The main threat today is locally heavy rainfall given pwats near 2 inches. This could result in ponding on roadways or even some flash flooding if storms train over the same location.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

As the broad upr ridge expands eastward towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Tues, the upr low will continue on its trek to the west but with effects still over our region. In addition to this, deepening S-SE flow will allow for the advection on an increasingly moist deep layer air mass into the region, with PWs reaching ~2.1 to 2.2 inches Tues and Wed. Forecast thermo parameters and sounding profiles would continue to suggest a primary threat for flash flooding during the period with relatively weak deep layer flow/shear and slow storm motions. Shower/storm coverage looks to be greater on Tuesday as compared to Wednesday, with the effects of the upr low overhead, but pushing westward. By Wednesday, its influence will begin to wane, but enough presence of remnant sheared vorticity to generate shower/storm activity once again...well that combined with sufficient moisture and heating. Daytime high temperatures during the period will tend to be relatively mild due to the potential abundance of shower activity and cloud cover.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1030 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Ridging at the mid levels coupled with high pressure at the surface will work to displace our lingering surface low and associated front by the start of the long term period. This will allow slightly drier air to filter in at the mid levels and work to gradually decrease our rain chances through the period. Chances drop from around 50% Thursday afternoon to below 30% by Sunday afternoon. In wake of the higher rain chances, heat will build back in with highs making it into the low 90s for the weekend. Unfortunately surface moisture will remain plentiful with dew points in the mid 70s. This will allow weekend heat indices to creep into the triple digits. While conditions currently look to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, proper heat safety will still be necessary for those partaking in outdoor activities.

Despite the lower rain chances, a stray stronger storm each afternoon will post a sneaky secondary threat behind heat. Conditions will remain favorable for gusty downburst winds among the strongest storms. Make sure to remain weather aware if spending time outdoors and check back for the latest updates.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

VFR conditions with light winds will continue overnight. If mid level clouds clear out there is a chance for some fog/mist to develop near daybreak due to the saturated grounds. For now kept at MVFR conditions but may need to amend if dense fog forms. During the afternoon, showers and thunderstorms will once again develop across northern AL. Confidence in timing and coverage at this time is low, therefore went with a prob 30 group for reduction to MVFR from thunderstorms.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.