textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 913 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

- Low chance of ordinary thunderstorms today, mainly south of the TN River.

- There is a low risk of a few strong to severe thunderstorms Monday evening and overnight, mainly west of I-65.

- There is a low to medium risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 149 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Thus far, clouds have kept convective instability at a minimum, and thus there has been no development of showers or thunderstorms. There area a few breaks in the clouds and cumulus is beginning to become more developed, so it's not out of the question that a few showers or a rogue thunderstorm still could pop up this afternoon. But that chance will continue to drop going into the early evening. For tonight, partial clearing will occur in far northwest AL, but will be followed by redevelopment of lower clouds. Along with dew points staying in the 50s, expect low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 913 AM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

A narrow ridge axis across the southern Plains into the OH Valley will shift into KY, TN, and AL late tonight into Monday morning. This may set us up for areas of fog tonight due to the light winds and a clearing sky. On Monday, another 5h wave shoots east across the southern Plains and into the lower MS and TN valleys. This as a broad area of southwesterly flow develops in low levels across the Gulf South into the lower MS and TN Valley. This will generate multiple clusters of showers and thunderstorms during the day over the ArkLaMiss, then shift into western and southern AL during the late afternoon and evenings hours. Areal coverage and intensity seem to wane in the 12Z HRRR with loss of heating. However, with steep mid level lapse rates and deep layer bulk shear of ~50kt, a low risk of large hail with the thunderstorms exists for our forecast area Monday evening and overnight. Will also examine additional CAMS to see if this trend is consistent. As the 5h ridge axis amplified over the region on Tuesday, shower and thunderstorm chances should decrease and shift northeast of the forecast area with a warm and humid day expected. Projected highs are in the upper 70s to lower 80s with dew points in the middle to upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1113 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

An upper level low just west of the northern Baja Peninsula involved with the southern portion of troughing across the western CONUS will move more to the SW over the next couple of days. As it does so, it becomes cut-off from the main northern stream. This upper low should be picked up by westerly zonal flow aloft on Tuesday. It will become part of a progressive trough that will take on neutral, if not a slight negative tilt as it moves across the central Lower-48 during the Wed-Thu timeframe. From Tuesday night into Wednesday, a strengthening southerly low level flow is expected across the area. This flow will produce unseasonable warmth for the start of the extended period. Lows Tuesday night will range low/mid 60s, with highs on Wednesday around 80 degrees. Normal high/low temperatures this time of year are around 64/42.

Big changes to this warm pattern will be arriving as we go through the midweek. Upper level disturbances moving ashore southern Alaska and British Columbia earlier in the week, will in part produce a surface low over the northern Rockies Sun/Mon. This low will move ESE across the Great Plains Tue, then head towards the southern Great Lakes Wed. Colder air north of this low will begin spilling southward south and west of this low (forming a cold front) as the surface cyclone heads towards the Great Lakes. This cold front is forecast to move across the Tennessee Valley Wed evening. A lifting of warm and moist air by this front, will result in numerous to widespread showers/thunderstorms Wed night. Strong shear noted before the cold front arrives suggests a Quasi-Linear Convective System, or squall line with damaging wind gusts the main threat. The western portion of our area has been placed in a Slight Risk for Day-5; which will probably be similar when the Day-4 outlook is released. Around an inch of rainfall is expected from this system.

Much cooler air filtering in west of the exiting cold front will be a reality check, showing that the winter season is not quite over with. Low temperatures Wed night should tumble to around 40, a good 20 degrees cooler than the previous day. Thursday will present much cooler conditions. Despite sunny skies, the airmass change will be substantial, with high temperatures in the mid 50s. Chilly conditions continue Thu night, with lows from the mid 30s to near 40. The lower end of this could result in early growing season frost development mainly in/near sheltered and more exposed areas. Otherwise, it should be close to seasonable warmth under generally sunny skies for Friday the Thirteenth, with highs in the mid/upper 60s. The warming trend continues for the start of the next weekend, with lows Fri night in the 40s, and highs Saturday in the lower 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 658 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Low clouds with cloud bases above MVFR threshold (3000ft AGL) were slowly dissipating from west to east, with parts of far NW AL having scattered CIGs. A worry that clouds diminishing this evening, would be favorable for the formation of fog, given lots of residual moisture from recent rainfall. NW AL with less cloud cover could be impacted earlier with fog, while areas that are experiencing more clouds could become foggy later. Fog that sets up could persist through daybreak Mon, before a S-SW flow of 5-10kt help dissipate the fog. Cloud cover is also expected to increase from SW-NE during the day Mon, in advance of more showers late in the TAF. Confidence was not high enough to include them over NW AL this issuance.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.