textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Light rain and drizzle will continue intermittently overnight into Monday morning. - Medium to high chances (50-90%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of this week as another front moves through the region.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Monday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Low chances (15% or less) of light showers and drizzle will continue intermittently through the overnight hours before tapering off Monday morning as a shortwave trough shifts out of the Tennessee Valley. Low stratus clouds will persist overnight along with breezy winds up to 15-20 mph will will prevent any fog formation.

Monday brings mostly dry conditions as an upper level ridge shifts back into the area from the Gulf and clouds gradually decrease throughout the afternoon. Highs will warm into to the low to mid 70s, which is slightly above normal (~2-5 degrees) for this time of year. Continued breezy, southerly winds will advect moisture into the Tennessee Valley ahead of an approaching frontal boundary (more on that in the short term below).

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main feature of interest within the short term period will be an upper level low and subsequent trough swinging eastward through the Plains on Tuesday, bringing a cold front towards the region. As this front enters the mid-Mississippi Valley, models show it slowing down with some shower/storm development ahead of it. This activity should slowly work its way into northern AL and southern middle TN Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current model sounding profiles indicate the nocturnal arrival of this system will keep available instability very low and lapse rates capped around 5-6 C/km. Therefore, this continues to look like a primary threat of heavy rainfall as PWATs reach around 1.5-1.7" (90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology). While shear is parallel to our boundary (favorable for flash flood potential), storm speed and Corfidi upshear vectors are forecast to be 20-30 mph, which should limit the flash flood threat due to faster moving storms and decreased potential for training. Overall QPF for Tuesday through Thursday has decreased with this forecast package, bringing widespread 1-2" of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 4". With this morning's rainfall in NW AL, we will be primarily concerned about that region due to antecedent conditions/saturated soils.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Wednesday night and Thursday, in the wake of a departing surface trough and axis of rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly flow aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with overnight lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east- southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be far too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor increase in cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this system. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread southeastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light northerly winds in the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft) expected to result in a continuation of dry weather from Friday-Saturday night. Early morning lows in the m30s-l40s can be expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with afternoon highs in the l-m 60s. Low chances for rain may return to parts of the region by Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a weakening clipper system diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower- latitude disturbance shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf Coast. However, due to vastly different model solutions at this time range, we will keep POPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 549 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR to MVFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with lowered ceilings. Wind shear has been included at KHSV with 35 kts of southeasterly shear at 2000ft. Additionally, gusty sfc winds up to 15-18 kts have been left in the TAF for now but will be decreased if gusts are not realized within the next 1-2 hours as winds may be overdone. Clouds will prevent fog formation overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.