textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 952 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026 - A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Saturday afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the primary concerns.

- Another low chance of severe storms will exist on Sunday, with localized damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. - Heavy rainfall and a low risk for flash flooding will continue into the first half of the work week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Showers and thunderstorms have pushed SE of the local area leaving a mostly clear and mild night ahead with lows dropping into the 70s. Through the night our attention will be on an MCS currently moving through southern Illinois. This feature will continue to push SE as it weakens and approach our area by tomorrow morning. Significant discrepancies exist in the models regarding the evolution of this feature through the night with some eroding it completely by the time it reaches the TN Valley and others blanketing NE AL in showers and storms tomorrow morning. Should showers and storms make it to the TN Valley tomorrow morning, they only look to impact southern middle TN and NE AL. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds would be the main concern among a stronger storm for any morning convection.

Of greater concern is the high chances of afternoon storms initiating in the wake of the morning MCS associated with a surface low parked just to our NW. Robust thermodynamics will be in place with dew points in the 70s, PWATS near 2 inches, and models indicating surface based CAPE exceeding 2000 J/KG. Fortunately shear will be weak, limiting the extend of storm organization. The moist environment and instability favor heavy rainfall and damaging winds to be the primary threats with any storms Saturday afternoon. Low corfidi vectors also pose a concern for training convection that could lead to flooding, especially with high rainfall rates possible. As such, both SPC and WPC have a Slight Risk in place for our area. Models have trended slightly later with timing bringing the highest coverage of storms into NW AL from 4-6 PM and pushing them SE through sunset.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

With such a favorable thermodynamic environment in place during the day on Saturday, any showers and storms still in the area after sunset will retain a risk for damaging winds and heavy rainfall until they exist our area. Storms look to clear a little after midnight.

Despite slight breaks in the rain chances each morning, our pattern will remain largely unchanged both Sunday and Monday. The incredibly moist and unstable environment paired with a stalled surface low and associated front will provide enough lift, moisture, and buoyancy to support high chances of storms both afternoons. The favorable thermodynamics will continue to support a threat for heavy rainfall and damaging winds with all storms. With high rain rates possible, any training convection will pose a risk for flooding. Currently, SPC has the whole area in a Marginal Risk on Sunday. With such an active pattern please remain weather aware and check back for updates as the forecast can change quickly.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 952 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Several synoptic models meander the upper low into southern middle Tennessee or northern Alabama into Monday evening. This should keep moderate to high rain chances in the forecast through the late evening hours. Some thunderstorms may occur more in the early evening that could produce some lightning and heavy downpours before instability is lost. Rain chances drop significantly and become more isolated after midnight, as the upper low moves WSW into northern Mississippi. The cloud cover (after midnight coverage of showers will be very isolated) will likely keep low temperatures in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

During the day on Tuesday, the upper low moves NW into Missouri in most guidance. It pulls a weak warm front northward with it at the same time. This should increase rain/storm chances on Tuesday (especially in the afternoon) significantly. High temperatures hindered by persistent cloud cover and higher precipitation chances will be below normal, only climbing into the lower to mid 80s. By the evening hours on Tuesday, a strong upper ridge pivots SE towards the Tennessee Valley. Strong subsidence pushes into the area as a result. The center of this ridge looks to remain concentrated over the Ohio Valley and the Carolinas through the end of the week. This should increase subsidence over the area and limit convective coverage along a warm front through northern Alabama to an low to medium range.

Through the end of the week, as the center of the upper ridge continues to move SE into the Carolinas, at least isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorm activity looks likely along the weak warm front (which looks to be situated across north central Alabama into eastern Missouri). Shear continues to look very weak, but good afternoon/evening instability is shown by models. Some stronger downburst potential cannot be ruled out. Though the area will be on the western edge of the strong upper ridge, this warm front should keep us from getting really hot again. However, temperatures should warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s and it will remain very humid. Thus, heat index values will be higher (Mainly 96 to 104 degrees) Thursday through the end of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Still expect VFR conditions to be in place at both terminals, though KHSV looks to have 10,000 foot CIGS in place after 06Z. Included a PROB30 for possible convection extending SW near the KHSV terminal between 11Z and 15Z. Lighter winds should pick up to around 6 knots and become more westerly towards daybreak. Expecting a break in precipitation after that, but more certain rounds of additional -TSRA or TSRA are expected between 18Z and 22Z and again later in the evening between 00Z and 04Z at both terminals. During these periods, MVFR or lower CIGS/VSBYS could occur.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.