textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

- A low chance for severe thunderstorms is forecast Friday evening for most of our forecast area as a cold front moves over the TN Valley. Damaging winds and a tornado are the primary concerns.

- A very low chance for strong to severe storms late Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening. A Marginal Risk (Level 1 our of 5) has been denoted across the Tennessee Valley during this timeframe. - Much colder temperatures are forecast early next week, with high chances of record below freezing temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

A slowly moving warm front currently stretches from southeast Georgia northwest through northwestern Alabama. The airmass just south of this boundary is still fairly dry overall. Dewpoints to the south of the warm front are still in the lower 50s mainly. As the occluded low over south central Canada and associated storm system moves east overnight closer to the area and the strong high over the Atlantic moves little, most guidance has the pressure gradient increasing over the area. Southerly to southwesterly winds between 5 and 10 mph with higher gust to around 20 mph in higher terrain area possible tonight. Satellite imagery does show some mid/high clouds over much of Arkansas into NW Tennessee. However, most guidance does not show mostly cloudy conditions pushing into NW Alabama until right around or just after daybreak on Friday. Despite the clear skies, the winds should keep much if any fog from forming through daybreak on Friday.

These high clouds will spread east quickly after daybreak across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. This will help limit heating and afternoon instability a bit. Highs will likely be 1 to 3 degrees cooler on Friday, but still very nice, reaching the upper 60s (east) to 74 degrees elsewhere. Despite this limiting factor, boundary layer moisture advection does increase ahead of the approaching storm system. Models do show surface dewpoints climbing to around 60 degrees in the afternoon ahead of the front.

Guidance continues to forecast a strong longwave trough axis with the storm system currently well to our northwest tonight. Though low level winds (925 mb/850 mb) aren't too impressive, 500 mb and 300 mb winds are strong ahead of this system. Decent helicity (though a bit weaker than previous runs) is still shown as well. 0-6 km bulk shear in the afternoon ahead of the front increases to 50 to 60 knots, supporting a damaging wind threat. Helicity is enough for rotating cells over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee and a tornado potential. However the biggest key with this environment continues to be the forcing or lack thereof in the afternoon over northern Alabama. Models show the weak warm front (currently over the area) shifting slightly southwest and extending from southwestern Alabama into northern Mississippi later Friday afternoon. Surface based CAPE near and east of the I-65 corridor builds to between 500 and 900 J/KG west of the I-65 corridor.

Even along this boundary models are not showing much forcing or convection forming along and near it (except maybe in SW Alabama). That is the question that lingers though. Chances look low though (10 to 40 percent) of a thunderstorm developing in northern Alabama or southern middle Tennessee during the early/mid afternoon hours. Overall less forcing is seen over the area in current model runs then. If we do get a more robust storm that develops in the early/mid afternoon hours, then a severe storm or two could occur in northern Alabama. Damaging winds, a tornado, and the potential for some large hail could all occur mainly near and west of the I-65 corridor (though large hail would be harder to get). It will be breezy with southerly or southeasterly winds between 10 and 20 mph with some gusts up to 30 mph possible in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Stronger forcing moves into northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee ahead of the cold front Friday evening (around 6 PM). Not sure how much surface based instability we will have left by then (but maybe 100 to 400 J/KG). Shear and helicity will still be high though, so we will need to watch NW Alabama for a marginal threat between 4 and 7 PM.

Though some elevated instability may linger, most models show no surface based instability in place by 10 PM. Most of that prior to 10 PM is very weak (<300 J/KG) and primarily in southern middle Tennessee. That being said, any severe threat will likely linger longest in southern middle Tennessee. However, the bulk of the convection and heavier rainfall will likely be concentrated northeast of the area over north central Tennessee into Kentucky (as models have been consistent with for many days now).

The front seems to slow down overnight as it pushes southeast towards central Alabama late Friday night. Again the strongest forcing/heaviest rainfall remains well to our northeast. Most guidance really weakens this front as it pushes south into central Alabama towards daybreak on Saturday. It should remain warm overnight with lows only dropping into the mid to upper 50s given cloud cover and warm air advection ahead of the front still. Isolated to scattered showers will linger into the early morning hours most likely.

Models do quickly move this weak front northward as a warm front Saturday afternoon. Shear does increase again, though no real helicity is shown in guidance. Highs looks a bit warmer on Saturday. This should help to increase surface based instability, mainly near and south of the Tennessee River, but then goes away with the loss of daytime heating in the evening.

At the same time, another longwave trough axis swings east from Indiana into the western Great Lakes region Saturday night. This produces a new surface low that moves ENE into the Ohio Valley region. It drags another cold front into the area towards daybreak on Sunday. Again, the good news is the strong forcing associated with this secondary cold front remains well northwest of the region. However, the warm front may provide just enough lift for some convective development before the cold front moves in. Again coverage looks very low though and much of that may be more in the evening and overnight, which would more likely keep severe convection from occurring. We will have to watch for a low chance of some strong to severe storm potential though Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening. Mainly damaging winds and maybe some hail would be possible if any convection becomes severe.

Much colder air moves into the area on Sunday, mainly during the day. Highs look to only climb into the mid 50s to around 60 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1021 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Latest extended range model consensus suggests that the axis of an amplified mid/upper-level longwave trough will cross the local forecast area on Monday. Although with varying degrees of intensity, nearly all guidance also indicates that a rather potent vort max (embedded within the base of the trough) will dig southeastward from the Upper TN Valley into the southern Appalachians, providing at least modest support for synoptic scale ascent during the morning hours. In the low-levels, strong NW flow will be maintained for much of the period from Sunday night into Monday by a sharp pressure gradient between a deepening low along the coast of New England and an arctic high shifting southeastward across the southern Great Plains. This combination should yield a vast coverage of low stratus clouds and perhaps some light snow showers (especially for the northeastern corner of the CWFA, where orientation of boundary layer streamlines will result in favorable orographic lift along the Cumberland Plateau). Regardless of snow, it will be mostly cloudy, cold and blustery for the entire region, with the combination of temps in the m-u 20s and NW winds of 10-15 MPH (with stronger gusts) yielding morning wind chills in the m-u teens. Daytime highs in the u30s-l40s (offered by blended guidance) may also be several degrees too warm depending on the eventual coverage of clouds.

As the center of the rapidly modifying arctic high settles across the Lower MS Valley Monday night, conditions will become highly favorable for radiational cooling. Although a few high clouds may return early Tuesday morning in NW flow aloft, dewpoints in the m-u teens suggest that a hard/killing freeze is likely to occur with lows in the upper teens-lower 20s in outlying areas (away from large water sources). Present indications are that this particular outbreak of cold air will be intense but brief, as the onset of southwesterly flow in the low-levels will initiate a notable warming trend beginning Tuesday when afternoon highs will rise into the u40s-l50s. Temps will continue to rebound through the end of the period, with highs returning to the l-m 60s by Thursday as lows rise into the u30s-l40s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1150 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Light and variable winds will continue for a few more hours, before picking up between 07Z and 10Z in most areas to around 5 knots gusting to around 10 knots. A concentrated area of high clouds will likely move into NW ALabama around 12Z at KMSL and 14Z at KMSL. This increase in winds should keep fog at bay at the terminals. VFR CIGS should remain in place through much of the day. A PROB30 was kept for both terminals to include SHRA and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. The next TAF issuance will likely include TSRA in this PROB30 group and some more predominant rain after 08/00Z at KMSL and 08/03Z at KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.