textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 857 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- A low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a weak boundary drops south into the area. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the main concern with this activity. - A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Saturday afternoon and evening as a broken line of storms will move this the region. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the primary concerns.

- Another low chance of severe storms will exist on Sunday with a weak front near the area, with localized damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. Rain chances will drop considerably by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1249 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

An outflow boundary dropped south into the area early this afternoon and has served as a focus for a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. Environmentally speaking, we've destabilized quickly, with 2000-3000 J/kg of MLCAPE, DCAPE values of 1000-1200 J/kg and low-level lapse rates of 7-8 C/km ahead of this feature. All this to say, the environment is prime for this activity to remain strong to severe as it pushes through the region over the next 2-3 hours (with localized damaging winds the main threat). What's less certain is how much the boundary layer will recover in its wake, with notably poor lapse rates and lower CAPE values to the north of this feature. Guidance does suggest this feature will slow/stall across of just south of the region and may anchor additional convection that will develop to our west through the evening hours. Thus, a marginal severe threat and a localized flash flooding threat (especially in locations where back- building and repeated rainfall occurs).

After 8-9 PM convection should wane, with a break in the action occurring for most of the night. Between 09-12z, however,we'll have to watch for the redevelopment of convection along a boundary to the north of the area, which some Hi-Res solutions attempt to bring storms through during this early morning window. For now, think our elevated storm prospects are still pretty low late tonight, save for our southern middle Tennessee counties and this is reflected with 50-60% shower/storm chances in southern middle Tennessee and 10-40% chances across northern Alabama.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 857 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A more organized severe threat appears to be in the cards for Saturday afternoon and evening across the Tennessee Valley, contingent on what any potential morning elevated convection does to the storm environment. PoPs will be very high on Saturday due to the potential two rounds of storms (80-100%), with Hi-Res guidance bringing a few clusters of subsevere storms during the early/mid morning hours and then a break in the late morning to early afternoon. Sufficient heating should allow for good boundary layer recovery by mid/late afternoon, with MLCAPE values up to 1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg,and steep low- level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 C/km. This will favor damaging winds/downbursts for any storms that can move through during the mid/late afternoon to evening window (2-10 PM). SPC has upgraded the entire CWA to a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for this reason. Corfidi upshear vectors are around 300 deg at 8-10 kts, meaning some backbuilding may occur and that we'll have to watch for a localized heavy rainfall/flooding threat as well.

We continue to have low confidence in timing given the uncertainties how convection upstream will impact conditions in our area -- with some 12z solutions favoring a later arrival time. This is something we will need to watch for over the next 24 hours. However, do anticipate a severe risk will develop Saturday afternoon/evening at some point and it will be important for everyone (especially those with outdoor plans) to stay weather aware and have multiple ways to get warnings.

With a remnant outflow across or just south of the area on Sunday, another low risk of strong to severe storms is forecast again Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized damaging winds will be a threat, but locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding may rise to the forefront, depending on how much rainfall occurs on Saturday and where the strongest storms track/backbuild.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The first half of the long term will continue our unsettled pattern. As we step into the new work week, a weak surface low looks to be parked over the TN Valley with a stalled front draped through our CWA. Mid level riding to our north will will keep the surface features in place through Wednesday prompting medium to high rain and storm chances each afternoon. While not currently outlooked, the very moist and warm environment will be conducive for our typical summer thunderstorm threat of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Please check back for updates regarding any chances for severe weather or flooding.

One upside will be the relatively mild temperatures that will come with the higher rain chances. Highs look to remain in the low to mid 80s through the first half of the week. By Wednesday evening, mid level high pressure looks to finally sag south, displacing our pesky low and associated rain chances. Conditions look to dry out on Thursday. Lower rain chances of course me warmer temps with high reaching back into the 90s by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR conditions are expected at KMSL through 9Z. Scattered clouds between 4000 and 10,000 feet are expected much of the night. Winds between 4 and 6 knots overnight should keep fog at bay at the terminals. Expect a window between 11Z and 15Z at KHSV and 12Z and 15Z at KMSL for possible -TSRA impacts that could produce MVFR conditions at the terminals. Then VFR conditions should return with CIGs around 10,000 feet expected. Another window for -TSRA looks possible at both terminals between 18Z and 22Z. Again, MVFR VSBYS or CIGS could occur. IF TSRA or +TSRA occur, some lower VSBYS or CIGS are possible.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.