textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 920 PM CDT Wed May 15 2026

- A significant warming trend this weekend into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. - Medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return to the Tennessee by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 104 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

The upper-level ridge axis currently over portions of the eastern CONUS will begin to shift eastward early Saturday. A trailing subtle mid-level shortwave will translate into portions of the mid-south, providing enough lift to increase cloud cover while remaining dry heading into the early to mid afternoon hours. At the surface, a similar pattern to previous days will unfold as a developing surface low over the southern plains will coexist with a pronounced high pressure system over the southwest Atlantic. This will continue to drive southerly flow over much of the southeast beginning a gradual warming trend heading into this weekend, with highs in the l80s-m80s expected this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

An upper ridge axis will amply across the Southeastern United States early next week, resulting in a pronounced warm up across the region. Thanks to the ample sunshine and deep southerly flow, high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s both Sunday and Monday. Some cloud cover will gradually begin to increase Monday afternoon/evening into Monday night as a disturbance from the west approaches the region. However, strong subsidence from the ridge will keep any mentionable precipitation chances out of the forecast through Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 920 PM CDT Fri May 15 2026

The upper ridge over the Southeastern states will gradually weaken next week as an upper trough slides from the western CONUS up into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions by late week. By this time, the upper level flow over the Tennessee Valley looks to become largely zonal. In addition, a subtle shortwave is shown to progress from the ArkLaMiss region into the lower Ohio Valley on Tuesday. Meanwhile, a surface cold front, associated with a parent low slated to swing over the Great Lakes into eastern Canada Tuesday into Wednesday, looks to approach the Tennessee Valley Tuesday into Wednesday with FROPA later on Wednesday. Sensible weather from Tuesday through Friday next week for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee will therefore consist of daily chances of showers and storms, with the greatest chances anticipated on Wednesday.

Model PWATs increase to between 1.5-1.8 inches on Wednesday, which are right around the 90th percentile (1.6 inches) when compared with Sounding Climatology from BMX. Therefore, showers have the potential to be efficient rainfall producers. This trend will be monitored over the coming days for model consistency. Additionally, although sufficient instability is indicated by guidance for thunderstorm development, confidence in any severe weather is currently low due to model bulk shear values below 30 knots. This will also be monitored in case bulk shear values increase, in which case the potential of any strong to severe storms would also increase.

Lastly, a general cooling trend is forecast through Thursday, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90s on Tuesday decreasing into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Thursday (due to FROPA on Wednesday). However, this will be short-lived, as temperatures rebound back into the lower to mid 80s on Friday. Lows will follow a similar pattern, with mid to upper 60s forecast Tuesday night followed by upper 50s to lower 60s Thursday night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue throughout the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.