textproduct: Huntsville

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Mid/high cloud cover continues to spread into the mid TN Valley from the SW, as an upper trough axis rotates eastward thru the mid/southern Plains. High pressure also remains layered across the NE/mid Atlantic states, as an attendant sfc low begins to lift NE out of the southern Plains. Closer to home, the main impact from the sfc ridge to the ENE and the sfc low approaching the ARKLATEX will be a slight uptick in sfc flow, with SE winds around 10-15MPH coupled with gusts near 20-25MPH. Given the mostly cloudy skies today, highs will struggle to surpass the mid 50s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

Increasing showers are expected to develop along/west of I-65 late tonight, as the upper trough pattern takes on a negative tilt and lifts into the Mid South region. This shower activity will expand further into the day Fri, as the trough axis lifts more into the Midwest/OH Valley states. Some weak elevated instability may also allow for a few embedded tstms west of I-65. Sfc flow may also gusts near 25-30MPH at times Thu night into Fri. With the increase in rain coupled with sfc flow out of the SSE, lows early Fri may trend more in the mid/upper 40s, before temps rebound into the mid 50s/near 60F later in the day.

Another upper trough pattern will then rotate eastward thru the mid/southern Plains heading into the weekend period. Another attendant sfc low will likewise move out of the southern Plains and into the Midwest/OH Valley states this weekend. This next sfc low will drag a cold front thru the lower MS Valley Sat before sweeping thru the central TN Valley Sat night into Sun. Increasing showers are again expected along/ahead of this next front. In addition, an increasing H85 jet out of the SW around 45-50kt will help usher unstable/warmer air into the region, with SBCAPE values approaching 700 J/kg by Sat evening. Bulk Shear values also look to approach 60kt late Sat.

All of this will result in additional showers, along with iso embedded tstms Fri night into early Sun. Shear profiles also suggest the prob for a limited severe wx threat late Sat thru Sat evening, capable of brief damaging wind gusts/iso tornadoes. With a strong low level jet out of the SW parallel to the oncoming front, multiple rounds of heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out as well Sat afternoon/night. QPF amounts thru early Sun look to be around 2.5-3.5 inches. Rainfall should then quickly taper off to the east Sun afternoon following the passage of the cold front. Highs this weekend look to be in the 60s, while lows thru early Sun trend in the lower/mid 50s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CST Thu Dec 26 2024

The mid TN Valley may then see a brief reprieve in the rainfall Sun night thru Mon, before the arrival of another cold front brings showers back into the forecast Mon night into Tue. The influx of cooler air also looks to be minimal at the start of the week following the passage of this initial front, before slightly cooler air filters into the area New Year's Eve/New Year's Day. Highs look to range from the lower/mid 60s Mon down to around 50F by the middle of next week. Lows will also return to the mid/upper 30s by New Year's Eve.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1135 PM CST Wed Dec 25 2024

VFR conds are generally expected thru the period, as mid/high clouds continue to spread into the area from the WSW well into Thu. ESE winds near 8kt will also increase to 10kt with higher gusts Thu morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.