textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1057 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

- Strong-severe storms will impact the region beginning near 2-3pm today. Damaging winds, tornadoes, localized flooding, and hail are all potential hazards with these storms.

- A strong cold front will bring medium-high chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday afternoon/evening.

- A hard freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with lows in the middle to upper 20s.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 152 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Afternoon temps have hit the upper 70s to lower 80s ahead of a cold front that will move through the area later tonight. Sufficient clearing ahead of this activity has led to greater destabilization than what was shown in model guidance this time yesterday. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is now in effect for portions of NW and north central AL as well as southern middle TN. The main hazard of higher confidence continues to be damaging winds, with the hail and tornado threat more dependent on embedded or isolated supercells ahead of or within the line. Localized flooding concerns may linger through the early overnight hours before rain comes to an end tomorrow morning.

Previous Discussion: Deep layer shear still appears more parallel to the line expected to move through the area later this afternoon, keeping damaging winds as the primary concern and the reason for the eastward expansion of the Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) by SPC earlier this morning. While we do expect to see a linear storm mode later this afternoon, trends in high res guidance do indicate the potential for supercell development along a confluence boundary or boundaries across central/eastern MS early this afternoon potentially expanding north into the TN Valley. The risk for tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail would be maximized with any supercells that are able to form this afternoon and tap into the unimpeded boundary layer. While instability will decrease as storms progress east later this evening, deep layer shear will strengthen ahead of the approaching shortwave and will keep the risk of damaging winds in place area wide.

In addition to the severe threat, PWAT values in the 1.4-1.6" range will result in torrential downpours especially during stronger storms and could lead to localized flash flooding. While the flooding threat is lower-end and not widespread today, recent heavy rain has already caused rises on area creeks and streams and saturated soils will take less time for runoff to occur. Use extreme caution if driving later and do not drive over roadways covered by water.

Please take some time late this morning to prepare your sheltering locations and ensure you have more than one reliable way to receive warning information. Stay tuned to forecast updates as we go through the day.

The severe threat should come to an end around 10-11pm tonight, but rain and thunderstorms will likely linger through much of the overnight hours. Temps will fall into the upper 30s/lower 40s behind the front, so dress warm on your way out the door in the morning!

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1057 AM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

High pressure will expand into the Southeast for the later part of the work week, bringing dry and cooler conditions to the area. In fact, highs on Thursday will be around 20 degrees cooler, only reaching the mid 50s. The main impact in the short term period will be that overnight lows could fall close to the freezing mark Thursday night into Friday morning so be sure to protect sensitive vegetation in case of frost. We will warm slightly into the 60s on Friday with clear skies persisting as we head into the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1013 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

After a cooler morning in the 40s, southerly flow will take hold on Saturday allowing for a significant warm up over the weekend. 8h temps will warm into the 11-13C range. This will yield high temperatures in the lower to middle 70s Saturday, and middle to upper 70s on Sunday. A strong cold front arrives Sunday night as a powerful upper low rotates through the upper Great Lakes, swinging a trough through the middle and lower MS Valleys. Medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms will result Sunday afternoon and evening. Very strong cold air advection arrives late Sunday night into Monday morning which could bring a few flurries mixing in with any remaining showers behind the front. High temperatures will only reach the middle to upper 40s for most areas on Monday! As high pressure ridging slides south along the MS River Valley, there is a high chance of a hard freeze by Tuesday morning with lows in the lower to middle 20s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

VFR conditions have persisted this morning ahead of an approaching storm system that will bring the risk for severe weather and torrential rain this afternoon and evening. Thunderstorm confidence increases around 20z at KMSL and 22-23z at KHSV, with reductions as low as LIFR during heavier downpours. Damaging winds, tornadoes, and hail are all potential hazards from the storms this afternoon and evening. Expect rain to linger through the overnight hours along with MVFR to IFR cigs until the clearing line reaches northwest AL around 14z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.