textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

- A significant warming trend on Sunday into early next week with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

- Low chances for a few thunderstorms in far northeast Alabama Sunday and Monday afternoons.

- Low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms returning late Tuesday, then medium to high chances for showers and thunderstorms return late Tuesday, with medium to high chances for Wednesday through Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 152 AM CDT Sun May 17 2026

No major updates from the previous discussion. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) did clip a small portion of NE AL with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5), however, confidence in strong to severe storms remains low (as well as confidence in rainfall occurring in general). PoPs remain capped at 10-15% in portions of DeKalb and Jackson Counties. If a thunderstorm is realized during the late afternoon/early evening hours today, it will likely remain sub severe as shear continues to be minimal. Otherwise, highs are still on track to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s under mostly clear skies.

Previous Discussion: Late evening analysis indicates mostly mid/high cloudiness over north/east portions of the area with largely clear sky conditions elsewhere. Although, there has been a tendency for some increased high cloudiness spreading southward per NT Microphysics imagery. Regional radars have continued to show very lgt returns aloft, indicative of the virga, as this precip is falling into a layer of very dry air. Dewpoint temps are a bit elevated above the broader guidance suite, but are expected to fall a little overnight. Fog development tonight should be kept to a minimum except perhaps some light fog in the usual valley locations, but confidence in development is too low to mention otherwise in the forecast.

For Sunday, a deeply stacked sub-tropical ridge will expand westward into the Southeast CONUS with heights building and warm air advection increasing across the region. A plume of moisture on the western flank of the low/mid level ridge will build northward across FL and GA. This combined with a slight enhancement of low- level confluence should help to trigger an area of showers and thunderstorms, with an axis primarily over GA. However, due to its close proximity, a few showers/storms could make their way into NE Alabama during the afternoon. Given thermo profiles, showers/storms should contain some strong updrafts given the potential for CAPEs to reach ~1500 J/kg. Given drier air aloft, lack of deep layer shear (< ~20 kts), and otherwise weak forcing, any cells are expected to be largely pulse-like in nature and relatively small. Otherwise, in the increasingly warm airmass, highs and feels-like temperatures will largely be in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Fairly similar conditions will exist for Monday (as compared to Sunday) with another plume of moisture pushing just into NE portions of the area during the afternoon. Slight chances for a shower/thunderstorm will once again exist for Monday afternoon, but perhaps with an even weaker instability/shear profile. Thus, general thunderstorm activity would be expected once again. Highs likewise are likely to be in the upr 80s/lower 90s, although increased humidity will make heat indices just a little warmer than Sunday.

The broad sub-tropical ridge will strengthen across interior areas of the Southeast/Mid-Atlantic coastal plain as an upstream trough leads to amplification of the upr ridge. The ridge will act initially on Tuesday as a buttress against an approaching trough from the Plains/Mountain West. Enhanced forcing along the trough/ridge interface will probably make its way eastward into the TN Valley by later on Tuesday and chances for showers/storms will begin to increase especially in NW portions of the area. A continued lack of deep layer shear and moderate instability will tend to allow only for general thunderstorm activity.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1045 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Upper level zonal flow on Wednesday looks to eventually turn into southwest flow aloft through late week. In addition, a series of shortwaves are shown by guidance to move along this flow pattern over the Southeast from mid to late week. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will approach the Tennessee Valley on Wednesday, passing just to our south by Thursday, then stall over the Southeast through Saturday. Overall, expect a wet pattern from Wednesday through Saturday! Looking at the potential for storms, while instability is sufficient for development, bulk shear values (particularly on Wednesday) are low. Values on Wednesday are generally around 10 kts or less. Guidance then suggests bulk shear values will be less than 30 knots through at least Friday. Therefore, not anticipating severe storms at this time.

Even with low confidence in the potential for any severe weather, model PWATs on Wednesday generally range between 1.6-1.8 inches by Wednesday and this looks to persist into the weekend. When compared with BMX Sounding Climatology (in the afternoon), this range is over the 90th percentile. Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. In addition, model soundings show low corfidi downshear values on Wednesday, indicative of slow-moving showers/storms as well as the potential for backbuilding/training storms (increasing the potential flood threat). Furthermore, with several days of elevated moisture and medium to high chances of showers/storms, we'll need to continue to keep an eye on the potential for flash flooding by late week, especially for areas that see consistent and heavier rainfall during this time. It has been fairly dry recently, but please remember flood safety next week! If you encounter flooded roads: Turn Around Don't Drown!

As for temperatures, these will be tempered a bit by the higher rain chances (especially Thursday through Saturday), with highs generally in the upper 70s to lower 80s each day and lows in the lower to mid 60s each night.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1152 PM CDT Sat May 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. During the afternoon hours on Sunday, breezy southerly winds up to 15-18 kts are forecast. These winds should subside by the late evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.