textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 921 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

- An unsettled weather pattern begins Friday night and continues through Saturday with medium to high chances (50%-80%) for showers and thunderstorms each day into mid next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

A pleasant night is in store for the TN Valley as a cold front has brought drier and slightly cooler conditions to the area. Nighttime RGB satellite imagery shows an axis of higher moisture just to the southwest of Franklin Co. AL, and dewpoint depressions of 3-4 degrees or higher should keep most of the fog at bay tonight. Clear skies and light/variable winds will allow for good radiational cooling, bringing overnight lows down into the mid 60s to lower 70s by tomorrow morning.

Northwest flow will remain aloft on Thursday as high pressure keeps dry conditions over the TN Valley. The aforementioned cold front will slide farther toward the Gulf Coast which will help keep humidity values much lower than seen in recent days. In fact, for late July it should feel more pleasant outside as afternoon highs stay near or below the 90 degree mark and RH values in the 50s and 40s keep heat indices topped in the low 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

As we get closer to the weekend, an upper low will track east into the Great Lakes and moisture will surge back northward Friday afternoon. Although the forecast for Friday looks dry, we should see an increase in clouds from west to east as this upper disturbance pushes Gulf moisture east through the area. Highs will be similar on Friday topping out in the upper 80s to lower 90s with light winds.

The eastward trajectory of this upper low/wave will stall Friday night into Saturday as it begins to dig further south and an associated sfc low tracks toward the OH Valley. As this happens, synoptic forcing for rain and thunderstorms will increase beginning late Friday night through Saturday. The main concern right now will be extremely high PWATs of 2.2-2.3" ahead of the approaching cold front. High chances for rain and storms will persist through at least early Saturday night where rainfall amounts of at least 1" look reasonable. Right now WPC has highlighted areas along and east of I-65 in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) elsewhere. Although moderate buoyancy/instability is likely across some portions of the lower MS/TN valleys, uncertainty about the coverage of early morning storms and how residual outflow boundaries will affect storm evolution is one limiting factor for strong/severe storms Saturday as well as weaker deep layer shear. That being said, it is still summer and any breaks in cloud cover that lead to stronger sfc heating may prime the stage for a few stronger storms capable of producing gusty winds Saturday afternoon. Storm coverage should begin to taper from west to east Saturday night as the cold front begins to push through the area.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 921 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

The primary talking point for the long term is the returning rain chances through the week. Late this weekend, an upper level trough is forecast to drop southeastward into the Tennessee Valley and Appalachian region. A subsequent sfc low will shift into the southeast U.S., bringing an accompanying cold front eastward into our coverage area. In response, widespread showers/thunderstorms are forecast through the area, with higher rain chances remaining along and east of I-65 (though this depends on exact frontal placement and may change between now and then). Recent ensembles have come into better agreement about the placement of the aforementioned trough and therefore has increased our confidence in at least medium rain chances occurring through the weekend into early next week. As the upper level trough shifts northeastward, lingering rain chances continue into mid week as low pressure continues to reside over the area. At the tail end of the long term, an upper level ridge and subsequent high pressure begin to work eastward into the lower Mississippi Valley which should begin to dry out the area along with increasing temperatures yet again. Highs throughout the long term period are forecast to warm into the 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s-lower 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 613 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period with light/var winds and mostly clear skies.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.