textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and a few storms returns to the forecast this evening and overnight, with the highest chances over southern middle Tennessee.

- Higher rain and storm chances (60-80%) are forecast on Friday for all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

NEAR TERM

(Today and Tonight) Issued at 405 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Cloud cover has been slow to move into north Alabama overnight, as shown by current nighttime microphysics satellite imagery. Therefore, it has cooled a bit more than expected, with temperatures in the mid 40s to around 50 degrees at present. The exception is northeast Alabama and the higher terrain, where temperatures have plummeted into the upper 30s. Thus, have adjusted temperatures through the early morning hours to account for this. Otherwise, the forecast and current thinking have not changed.

A surface low pressure system over the central CONUS will continue to shift eastward through the day today, with a cold front making its way towards the ArkLaTex region. This looks to eventually expand northeast and stall over the lower Ohio Valley as the low pressure system weakens. For most of today, no rain is forecast. It will be breezy, with sustained south southwest winds around 10-15 mph and wind gusts between 15-25 mph. However, we will continue to keep an eye on the aforementioned front as well as the potential for rain chances this evening and overnight.

Guidance continues to show ample shear, but instability remains the limiting factor - will we have enough and will any be surface- based or will it be elevated? In addition, most of the forcing looks to be displaced to our north and northwest tonight. At this time, no severe weather is anticipated for our local area. But, as the previous shift mentioned, the displaced forcing to the north should keep the greatest chances of showers and any storms over Tennessee (including southern middle Tennessee). While 40-60% chances are forecast for these areas, 20-40% exist for northern Alabama. Overall, the consensus in the guidance seems to be that if any precipitation moves into our area, it will likely be between 9 PM and midnight over northwest Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee. These showers will then progress southeast through the night, tapering off by late tonight into early Wednesday morning.

Lastly, temperatures will be a bit warmer than yesterday with highs reaching the mid to upper 70s. Although, the higher terrain of northeast Alabama may be a touch cooler, in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With increasing moisture, lows tonight will be warmer as well, only decreasing into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Friday) Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

The short term forecast will live in between two systems. The passage of the weak cold front on Tuesday night will have minimal impacts to our high and low temperatures through the rest of the week. Rather, a brief bout of high pressure will build in and support highs in the mid to high 70s each day with lows in the 60s. These high temps will be present despite prolonged partly to mostly cloudy conditions as both post frontal and pre frontal clouds plague the local area.

By Thursday our attention will shift west as our next system builds over the western CONUS. A mid level low will deepen and translate east through mid week. An associated short wave will ripple ahead of it through the TN Valley on Thursday producing low rain and storm chances (10-30%) for areas north of the TN Valley. While forcing will be weak, the high boundary layer moisture paired with any instability may be enough to support a few rumbles of thunder with any showers on Thursday. Even with the mostly clouds countdowns highs will be in the mid to high 70s area wide making for a muggy end to the week.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 926 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Our main feature in the long term will be the passage of an upper low and associated surface cold front on Friday. While it is still a little too early to nail down specifics, a few trends are becoming apparent. Boundary moisture looks to be plentiful on Friday with at least some instability present. This is favorable for some stronger storms with the passage of the front. However, the weakening low calls into question how much forcing the front will maintain by the time it reaches our area. Without any significant forcing, strong to severe storms will be less likely. The front looks to pass late Friday evening into overnight, potentially limiting the amount of instability present. We will keep an eye on forecast details for this feature as it draws closer.

Weak riding will build in behind the front inducing NW flow. This will drop our temps to the mid to high 60s during the day and 40s overnight. Unfortunately enough moisture looks to linger behind the front to keep partly cloudy skies and low (10-30%) rain chances each day through the weekend and into the start of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 506 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

VFR and breezy conditions are anticipated through the day, with sustained south southwest winds around 10-15 knots with gusts to between 15-20 knots. Winds will then slacken this evening, but chances of showers and a few storms increase (especially to the north over Tennessee). Low chances exist for both terminals through the evening and tonight, but will taper off late tonight into early Wednesday morning. By this time, low CIGs to MVFR are forecast to take hold. Lastly, we'll keep an eye on the potential for LLWS; but, confidence is low in its occurrence at this time.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.