textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday.

- Additional chances of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday afternoon and evening, and again over the weekend.

- Monitoring the risk for additional heavy rain and flooding early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

MCS that has rolled southeast from middle TN will enter far northeast AL over the next hour, but in a weakened state. Sand Mountain convection was also decaying with loss of daytime heating. Patchy fog will inevitably develop overnight due to the very moist boundary layer and at least a partially clearing sky. The most vulnerable area for fog will be in the valleys of southern middle TN and northeast AL. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s east to lower 70s west.

On Wednesday, a 5h ridge axis will build a bit further northeast from TX into the TN Valley on Wednesday. A very moist and unstable airmass and the complex terrain along the Cumberland Plateau will keep a low chance of a shower or thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Otherwise, a very warm and muggy day is ahead with highs in the middle to upper 80s east to lower 90s west. Heat indices may peak around 100, especially in the Shoals and Huntsville metro areas.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Similar weather will occur on Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s east to lower 90s west. The Shoals metro may peak near 95. Heat indices will once again peak around 100 in the Shoals and Huntsville metro areas. There will still be a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in northeast AL, mainly along the higher terrain. Relief from the heat will come on Friday as a cold front drops southeast through TN into north AL and MS. Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front, possibly lingering into the overnight hours. A few of the storms could be strong with gusty winds given rather buoyant CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. Before the front arrives, highs will once again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices again in the middle 90s to around 100.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The primary concern through the weekend will be the return of rain chances and a subsequent flash flooding risk. An upper level low will push eastward into the Great Lakes region, bringing upper level troughing and a resultant cold front southward. Model uncertainty continues to exist on the southward extent of this system, which will greatly affect rain chances in the area. A sfc high centered in the Gulf will bring southerly flow and increased moisture to the area ahead of this system, resulting in PWATs reaching around 1.5-2" through the weekend. These PWAT values are around the 90th percentile per sounding climatology at BMX. Any showers or thunderstorms that form will likely be efficient rainfall producers, which will cause an increased risk of flash flooding due to antecedent rainfall and current soil conditions. The western portions of northern AL have already been outlooked in a Marginal (risk level 1 of 4) excessive rainfall risk on Saturday and an eastward expansion of this (pending additional model agreement in trends) would not be surprising. CAPE values are forecast to reach ~1500 J/kg during diurnal heating both Saturday and Sunday with sufficient low level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Despite shear remaining weak, a low chance for strong storms could exist if forcing materializes for our area. Recent trends continue to push higher rain chances later, so would not be surprised if forcing for storms does not arrive until Sunday into the early part of next week. Heat will also be of continued concern as highs top out in the upper 80s through the weekend with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, be sure to keep updated on the latest forecast and be sure to practice heat safety to avoid heat related illness.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 530 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. However, a cluster of +TSRA in middle TN may clip areas from near KTHA-KBGF between 23-01Z. But the chance is very low for KHSV and KMSL of any activity tonight. We will monitor for patchy valley FG as well, but should be relegated to northeast AL and southern middle TN after 06Z through 12Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.