textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1021 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

- High chances for showers and storms on Saturday with a low chance of severe storms capable of damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- 1-2 inches of rain with higher amount to 3 inches on Saturday could lead to localized flash flooding.

- Medium (30-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue each day from Sunday-Wednesday. Rain chances will decrease on Thursday/Friday, with high temperatures returning to the upper 80s-lower 90s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 149 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

There have been no significant changes from the previous forecast. Some high clouds continue to stream in from the NW ahead of an approaching system. Temperatures have warmed up into the mid 80s and will continue to rise to around 90 later this afternoon.

Previous Forecast: Tranquil conditions are forecast to continue today as the influence of high pressure that is centered across the Mid- Atlantic stretches all the way south and west into the Tennessee Valley. Northeasterly flow this morning has resulted in a relatively cooler start to the day, but under ample sunshine it is expected to warm afternoon temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s. Later this afternoon, a slow moving warm front begins to slowly move northeast into northern Alabama. Moisture return gradually increases behind this boundary and a result, there is a low chance (10-20%) of a few showers later this afternoon into the early evening in portions of northwest Alabama.

Tonight, our attention turns to a low pressure system currently over the upper Midwest with a cold front stretching southwest into OK/TX. As this system pushes eastward, the LLJ ramps up across Mississippi later tonight and into early Saturday morning. Showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms are forecast to develop ahead of the front to our west in Mississippi/Tennessee and arrive into portions of northwest Alabama near daybreak Saturday. With limited shear and instability, we are not expecting any severe storms early Saturday, but the main concern will be a line of locally heavy rainfall. With PWs increasing to around 2 inches, any thunderstorm that does develop will be capable of high rain rates (1-2" per hour) that could result in flash flooding.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 1021 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The pre-frontal showers (mentioned above) will continue to move south and east Saturday morning. A brief break in activity will take place behind these showers and ahead of the advancing cold front from the attendant low that is forecast to be over the Great Lakes region on Saturday. As diurnal heating increases instability during the late morning to early afternoon, showers and thunderstorms are anticipated to initiate along the cold front. Based on the morning hires guidance, timing of these storms is around 2 pm across NW AL, 4 pm north-central AL, and 6 pm for NE AL and exiting the area around 8-9 pm.

There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in severe storm potential along the line. Morning showers and cloud clover will likely limit how fast we destabilize and if precip sticks around longer than expected, then the severe threat would decrease. However, if we do get sufficient heating, then multicell clusters could form into a line of storms that would be capable of primarily damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall. Also, based on forecast soundings, there is some low level helicity and good curvature in the hodograph. Therefore, we cannot rule out a low chance of a tornado or two. The most favorable locations for severe weather on Saturday would be for areas east of I-65 where there would be more time for instability to increase ahead of the cold front. As a result, the SPC has placed the eastern half of our CWA in a level 2 (Slight) out of 5 risk.

With PWs over 2 inches locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding is also a concern. With the two rounds of rain, 1-2 inches with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches are forecast. The highest amounts will be located in portions of NE AL as the front is forecast to slow down tomorrow evening.

As the sfc low continues to push off towards the northeast, some wrap around moisture will bring low to medium chances for showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. Given cloud the cover and precip chances lingering through the day, afternoon highs only top out in the mid 80s on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The long term period will begin with lingering rainfall from an aforementioned upper level trough and subsequent front that shifts eastward over the area this weekend. Rain chances should subside from west to east Sunday evening. This will be short-lived as low pressure resides over the southeast U.S., bringing daily shower/thunderstorm chances through mid week. Have continued with blended guidance for now, keeping low to medium PoPs each afternoon due to disagreement in the exact placement of the low within ensembles. Throughout the long term, a gradual warm up is forecast with highs reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by mid week. These temperatures will be dependent on potential cloud cover (or lack thereof) over the area. If PoPs and coexisting cloud cover trend down as we approach next week, highs will likely be a bit warmer than currently forecast. However, no heat products are on the horizon at this time.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Shower chances increase in the early morning hours on Saturday before daybreak. Expect conditions to drop to MVFR with a low potential of IFR. For now left out the IFR conditions but they may be added in future updates. By the afternoon, there is chances for thunderstorms along a cold front. Timing and coverage of storms, especially further west at MSL is still uncertain. Therefore just left the thunderstorms in a prob 30 group.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.