textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 323 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

- High chances for showers and thunderstorms today with a low chance of severe storms capable of damaging winds, locally heavy rainfall, and a tornado or two.

- 1-2 inches of rain with higher amounts to 3 inches may occur today in locations that experience repeated rounds of storms, which could lead to localized flash flooding. - Medium chances (50-60%) chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday then decrease to low chances (20% or less) through mid week, with the threat for dangerous heat returning toward the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

The remnants of an MCS that moved through the Ozarks last evening is making its way across the Mid South and lower Ohio Valley as of 08z. The bulk of this activity should remain just to our north, but a few clusters of showers and elevated storms have developed across northern Mississippi and southern middle Tennessee, with some HiRes guidance showing this activity filling in as it moves into the Tennessee Valley over the next 3-6 hours. Latest mesoanalysis indicates this activity will be elevated in nature in the predawn hours, with lightning and heavy downpours the main threat.

Our attention will turn to what may occur later today as a cold front moves across the region, triggering a second and potentially more robust round of convection. One aspect we'll have to watch closely is how long elevated morning showers and storms persist across the region. Should they linger until the early afternoon, it may limit the destabilization that can take place before the arrival of the front. However, most of the HiRes guidance does indicate a substantial break will take place to allow for sufficient destabilization to support at least a few severe storms.

MLCAPE values around 1500-2000 J/kg, steep low-level lapse rates of 8 to 8.5 C/km, and DCAPE values around 1100-1300 would support a damaging wind and downburst threat. However, 0-1 km shear values around 15-20 kts and backed surface wind ahead of the front (as highlighted in model soundings/hodographs) may also support a very limited (but non-zero) threat for a tornado or two. PWATs over 2" will also support very efficient rain producing storms and a localized flash flooding threat may also evolve especially in the timing of the frontal slows down. For this reason, WPC has placed much of the Tennessee Valley in a Slight Risk (Level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall. The main window for any severe weather would be afternoon to early evening (1 PM to 8 PM), with convection waning after sunset.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Sunday night) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The severe threat should come to an end around midnight Sunday as the cold front pushes east of the area. After a brief break from the storms, residual moisture will be enough to carry a low to medium chance for rain and storms on Sunday as the aforementioned upper low tracks through southern IN/eastern KY before giving way to high pressure. There will be no severe threat with these storms and rainfall amounts should remain under 0.1" which should not prolong any lingering flooding. Highs will be noticeably cooler on Sunday in the wake of the cold front, topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Sunday night should feel a bit refreshing as well with dry conditions expected and lows in the mid to upper 60s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Friday) Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

The long term period will be largely dictated by the placement and depth of the upper level trough shifting eastward into the Appalachian region early next week. Models continue to have disagreements, however, the general consensus so far is that lingering low pressure over the southeastern U.S. will create daily low chances (20% or less) of showers/thunderstorms with the assistance of diurnal heating through mid next week. If any thunderstorms are realized, the only day that could support a low chance of stronger storms at this time would be Wednesday with the LREF showing a decent amount of instability (Sfc CAPE > 1000 J/kg) along with generally unimpressive shear. Otherwise, a gradual warming pattern will be observed through next week with highs reaching the mid 90s by Thursday and Friday along with overnight lows in the 60s/70s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A few clusters of storms will move through the region through mid-morning, producing localized MVFR conditions at both terminals during the 12-16z window. A cold front will then sweep through the region during the afternoon/evening, bringing another round of SHRA/TSRA, with localized MVFR conditions occurring if a TSRA impacts either terminal between 20-00z. AWWs and amendments may be needed during this timeframe. After 00z, TSRA/SHRA should diminish and move off to the east, but low stratus may begin to build in by the late evening hours.

CLIMATE

Issued at 850 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included northern Alabama and portions of southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for August 8-9th. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures reaching or exceeding the mid 90s with heat indices above 105 degrees F during this period

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.