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This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1050 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

- A Cold Weather Advisory is in effect until Noon Sunday for dangerously cold wind chills between -5F and +5F (for this morning and later tonight).

- A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for the following counties: - in TN: Franklin - in AL: Jackson, DeKalb, Marshall through noon today. Between 0.5 and 2 inches are expected.

- Strong NNW winds of 20-25 MPH (with gusts of 30-35 MPH) are expected for much of the day today.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1050 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Models have underperformed with snowfall amounts this morning. Heavier bands have been training before daybreak over portions of eastern Franklin county (TN) southward into Jackson and DeKalb counties in northern Alabama. This has lead to a band of persistent moderate to heavy snow showers that has produced 0.5 to 1.5 inches of snowfall over southeastern Jackson and northern DeKalb counties in locations such as Pisgah, Higdon, Flat Rock, Bryant. A Winter Storm Advisory was issued that is in effect through noon for Franklin county (TN), Jackson county (AL), Marshall county (AL), and DeKalb county (AL).

A secondary area of flurries to light snow primarily has redeveloped to the northwest of this mainly moderate (at times heavier) snowfall band over the last two hours and the core of that area is shifting southward. How long this snowfall will last is the question of the day.

Based on radar trends, this activity may not push south of the area until 3 PM. So this advisory may need to be extended a few more hours.

We should see an end to these main areas of precipitation by 3 PM for sure (if not earlier), as the stronger forcing with the upper low helping to squeeze this snowfall out of the atmosphere moves into central and eastern Georgia in most models. This happens in most guidance between noon and 3 PM. Watching the potential for Jackson and DeKalb counties for an upgrade to Winter Storm Warning if the banding there persists until closer to 3 PM rather than noon. However, confidence in that happening is low (20-40%).

Make sure to bundle up if outside, given the air temperatures are currently in the mid teens to lower 20s. They should climb some, but cloud cover and additional flurries or light snow (especially east of I-65) should not allow temperatures to climb much. Add in winds of 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph at times this afternoon, dangerous wind chills are expected to continue. This morning wind chills could still be between 5 and -5 degrees, but should slightly rise into the 10 to 15 degree range west of I-65 in the afternoon hours. Further east some locations may not climb above 5 degrees for wind chills through the entire afternoon.

Temperatures will fall again late this afternoon into the evening hours and -5 to 5 degree wind chills will become more widespread again tonight into Sunday morning. Thus, a Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through noon on Sunday.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Tuesday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Low stratus will finally erode after sunrise on Sunday morning, but mid-level clouds will quickly return during the afternoon as a clipper system begins to dig southeastward from the northern Plains. Nevertheless, there should be a sufficiently long period of insolation to support temps warming into the l-m 30s as winds diminish. As the clipper system advances further southeastward into the southern Appalachians by 12Z Monday, cloud layers aloft will continue to expand/lower, and we will need to monitor this timeframe for a few additional snow flurries. However, the greatest coverage of light snow appears as if it will remain along and north of the OH River. Skies will clear in the wake of the clipper system on Monday, with abundant sunshine and the onset of light southwesterly winds supporting highs of 45-50F. Return flow will continue on Monday night as a weakening area of low pressure shifts eastward across the Red River Valley, with lows warming into the u20s-l30s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1043 PM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Global models indicate that the warming trend (in progress at the end of the short term period) will continue on Tuesday, as a decaying area of low pressure tracks eastward into the Mid-South region. Strengthening low-level warm/moist advection ahead of the low and trailing cold front will yield a band of light-moderate rain that will spread eastward and across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon/evening. With temperatures at the onset of precipitation expected to be well above freezing, only rain is expected as instability appears too meager to support thunderstorms at this point. Rain will come to an end from NW-to- SE early Wednesday morning, as the leading edge of a cooler/drier Canadian airmass begins to enter the region. This airmass will remain intact from Wednesday-Thursday night as the center of the slowly modifying high shifts southward across the Plains and into the western Gulf, with highs falling back into the l-m 40s and lows dropping into the l-m 20s. However, temperatures will recover into the u40s-l50s on Friday due to a modest increase in southwest flow as another clipper system drops southeastward over the Great Lakes.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1137 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Predominantly VFR conditions are expected after 18Z at both terminals. Though expect most of -SN should be done by then, some flurries could continue until closer to 21Z when the center of the upper low pushes into eastern GA. Left a tempo group between 18Z and 20Z though for flurries and brief MVFR CIGS that could occur at either terminal. NNW winds between 15 knots and 20 knots with gusts around 30 knots will continue to be possible through the afternoon though. Later this evening, expect lower CIGS to fill in around 01/03Z and continue overnight and winds to lessen to around 10 knots with gusts to around 20 knots. VFR conditions should return after 01/1500Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for ALZ008>010.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory until noon CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.

Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for TNZ097.


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