textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

- A warming trend and dry weather pattern will continue through Saturday.

- A cold front will bring an increase in clouds and some light rain to the region on Sunday morning, followed by a brief intrusion of cooler/drier air Sunday night.

- Chances for showers and some thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday, with a period of heavy rainfall possible on Wednesday. Conditions will remain warm for much of next week.

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Friday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A dry northwest flow aloft of 25-35 knots will persist across the TN Valley throughout the near term period, as a mid-level ridge builds northward into the southern Plains and a longwave trough shifts slowly eastward into the western North Atlantic. At the surface, a high (initially centered across the Cumberland Plateau region of Middle TN) will weaken and drift south-southeastward, providing calm winds tonight and a light SSW return flow tomorrow. Although a broken coverage of high-level clouds will be possible at times during the overnight period, conditions will be generally favorable for the development of mist and fog in our normally fog-prone locations (especially those adjacent to large bodies of water) as temperatures fall into the l-m 40s. The combination of mostly sunny skies and a gradual increase in low- level warm advection will support highs tomorrow around 3-5 degrees warmer (compared to today) with values ranging from the m-u 60s in elevated terrain to the mid 70s in the valley.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

A strong northern stream mid-level trough (initially located across northern Manitoba) will develop southeastward into New England and adjacent portions of the Canadian maritime provinces over the course of the short term period, resulting in an increase in WNW flow aloft to 40-50 knots across the TN Valley. As a cold front attached to the system's surface cyclone sweeps eastward across the Upper MS Valley and into the western Great Lakes on Friday night, a contracting pressure gradient north of a high centered along the northeastern Gulf Coast will sustain light- moderate SSW winds, which will veer to SW and strengthen further during the day on Saturday. Although boundary layer dewpoints will recover into the l-m 50s as this occurs, no rain is expected, with overnight lows in the u40s-l50s (a bit cooler in northeast AL) followed by warm afternoon temps in the m-u 70s (aided by a WSW low-level jet that will strengthen to 25-35 knots by late afternoon).

During the period from Saturday night-Sunday night, a lower- latitude frontal wave is predicted to evolve across the Great Lakes, with this feature expected to deepen at a steady rate as it reaches the coast of New England late in the period. The trailing cold front will cross our region at some point late Sunday morning, with low clouds and perhaps some pockets of light rain/drizzle possible both immediately ahead of and behind the front (with slightly greater chances for light but measurable rainfall across the eastern half of the CWFA). After mild morning lows on Sunday in the m-u 50s, a cooler/drier mixture of North Pacific and Canadian air will be advected southward into the region Sunday afternoon, with highs in the u60s-l70s followed by lows Monday morning in the l-m 40s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1000 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

Latest extended range forecast data from the global models still indicates that a compact 500-mb shortwave trough will track eastward across the central Plains on Monday, in the anticyclonic flow to the north of an expanding subtropical ridge at lower latitudes. Although it still appears as if this system will deamplify Monday night as it encounters increasingly confluent flow between the ridge to our south and a trough over the northeastern CONUS, there is still considerably uncertainty regarding how fast the remnant vorticity lobe will move eastward across the Mid-Atlantic states and offshore Tuesday/Tuesday night.

Model consensus at this point suggests that the system's decaying surface low will shift east-southeastward from the central High Plains into the Mid-South region by Tuesday morning, before advancing into the central/southern Appalachians later in the day. As this occurs, a warm front will lift northward across our region late Monday morning, perhaps resulting in some shower activity followed by an increase in southerly low-level flow and moisture advection Monday afternoon. Depending on the eventual path of the surface low and position of the warm front, additional showers and some thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon and into Monday night with CAPE up to 500 J/kg possible across our portion of the warm sector. However, present indications are that this axis of rain and weak convection will setup to our northwest (from to Ozarks into the Upper OH Valley). As a weak trailing cold front drops southeastward into the region Tuesday, additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible (especially Tuesday afternoon/evening). With WNW flow of 40-50 knots in the mid- levels, deep-layer shear would raise concern for organized convection in the presence of sufficient instability, but CAPE even during this timeframe appears to be rather low due to preceding clouds and weak lapse rates. Highs early next week will remain in the u60s-l70s, with lows in the u40s-l50s.

During the period from Wednesday-Thursday, winds aloft will back to SW and increase to 45-55 knots as an amplified southern stream trough tracks eastward from the southwestern deserts into the southern Plains. In the low-levels, a warm front will lift slowly northward through the region once again Wednesday in response to cyclogenesis across the southern High Plains, and this could potentially focus a swath of heavy rain and some thunderstorms across our region (but this will depend on the speed and eventual position of the boundary). As a secondary and stronger surface low evolves across the southern High Plains on Wednesday night/Thursday, our region will remain within a moistening warm sector airmass, with the risk for widespread rain and thunderstorms displaced to our west and north.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CST Thu Nov 13 2025

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning. However, with the coverage of Ci on a decreasing trend and narrowing dewpoint depressions noted at regional ASOS/AWOS sites, we have included a TEMPO group for MVFR vsby reductions btwn 9-13Z. Sfc winds will remain calm thru 15Z, but a lgt SSW flow will resume late Fri morning and continue thru the end of the TAF period as a ridge of high pressure migrates south-southeastward to the northeastern Gulf Coast.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.