textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- There is a low to medium risk of showers and thunderstorms late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- There is a low to medium risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday night into early Thursday.

- Cooler conditions return Thursday, but temperatures should warm as we go into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

A passing upper level disturbance that in part helped to create numerous showers and thunderstorms over and around the Tennessee Valley in the late afternoon and early evening. A few of the storms became severe over mainly over portions of NW Alabama with damaging wind gusts, and a few instances of small hail. Rainfall, some heavy also occurred. Amounts of rainfall so far from official and backyard sites ranged from 1/2 of an inch to over an inch, with a few spots received upwards of 3 inches. The shower activity has moved east of the area. After earlier highs in the low/mid 70s, mid evening temperatures have cooled into the lower 60s.

Further to the west, another upper system moving across the Ozarks could bring another bout of showers and thunderstorms in the overnight. Rainfall from it should be somewhat lighter than what occurred earlier, but it falling on an already wet ground would be more posed to runoff and produce heightened flooding concerns. Otherwise expect mild conditions for the overnight with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. A SE-S wind of 5-10 mph and more passing clouds should help suppress fog development most places considering how much moisture is available from recent rainfall.

Plenty of moisture and daytime heating produced instability will keep lower end chances of showers and thunderstorms in the picture Tuesday. With weak shear and limited instability, overall storm intensity should remain low. With a deep southerly flow back in place, another mild to warm period can be expected, as high temperatures rise into the mid 70s to around 80. Winds should be from the S-SW at 5-15 mph.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out mainly near the AL/TN border Tue evening. Otherwise a last mild night for a few days, with lows in the low/mid 60s. Wed will be the last warm day for a few days with highs rising from the mid 70s to near 80.

A cutoff upper low over the western Baja coast will continue moving to the NE, merging with the main westerly flow in the overnight into Tuesday, then become part of a progressive trough that should move in a west to east manner across the central and eastern CONUS Wed/Thu. The trough will take on a neutral tilt as it sweeps east of the Mississippi Valley. As it's upper level system traverses the southern Rockies, it will help a surface low form east of the Front Range Tue. This and a developing primary surface low over the Great Lakes will bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley beginning late Wed afternoon.

This timeframe is just getting to the end of the mesoscale forecast model range. The FV3 that goes out to Thursday morning shows the line weakening as it progresses in a NW-SE manner across the area. The other models were showing similar ideas, with convection reaching NW Alabama the latter half of Wed afternoon, and continuing to the SE into the evening and overnight. Shower activity should end from NW to SE in the late night and Thursday morning. The convection poised to move across the area appears will be in a Quasi-Linear Convective System mode. Thus the main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out in these situations. A more northern displacement of the parent low over the Great Lakes will help to minimize the tornado threat somewhat. Very heavy rainfall will also accompany this line of convection. Given the recent heavy rainfall much of the area recently experienced from this evenings convection, there will be a heightened risk of flash flooding late Wed night into Thu morning.

As alluded to above, a cooler change is on the way with the passage of this next system. With the cold front passing in the overnight, colder air west of it will result in low temperatures by daybreak Thu dropping into low/mid 40s, a good 20-25 degrees colder than the previous night! The highs later Thu will be a reality check as they struggle into the mid 50s, or around 20 degrees colder than Wed. A steady northerly wind of 10-20 mph, stronger in the morning will add to the chill.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Light winds and clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the 35 to 40 degree range. Some areas of frost could occur. Though northwest flow will weaken some on Friday, cold air advection will still help to keep highs in the lower to upper 60s.

This flow becomes more zonal Friday night into Saturday, but the Tennessee Valley should remain dry. Boundary layer flow will become more southerly, allowing better moisture advection into the area. This should keep overnight lows a bit warmer, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s primarily. With sunny skies on Saturday, high temperatures should be warmer topping off in the lower to mid 70s again courtesy of the evolving zonal flow aloft.

By Saturday night, another longwave trough digs southeast from the northwestern CONUS. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a developing front over the central Great Lakes region southwest into northeastern Texas. More significant low level moisture and warm air advection sets up over the southeast in response. Low temperatures will continue to warm only dropping into the lower to mid 50s.

Not much cloud cover expected through Sunday morning ahead of this front over northern Alabama. Though cloud cover will increase significantly Sunday afternoon. Despite cloud cover strengthening low level warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front should allow highs to climb back into the 75 to 80 degree range.

Most guidance develops strong forcing ahead of the front, but the deepest forcing may be concentrated over northern Tennessee into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Either way, at least scattered showers and thunderstorm activity ahead of it seems like a good bet further south into northern AL. Shear would be ample for organized thunderstorm development. Ensemble does show 500 J/KG or less of SBCAPE with 200-300 m2/s2 helicity over the area during the late afternoon/very early evening hours. So we may have another low end strong to severe thunderstorm setup with this system. Highs with morning sunshine may climb into the mid to upper 70s despite afternoon cloud cover.

Ensemble guidance is suggesting another shot of colder air pushing back into the area behind this system. Given how far out this system is, this could change at we get closer to that timeframe. Highs may drop back into the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1235 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Convection that earlier impacted the area has shifted well to our south and east. Lower level moisture advecting across the area was producing MVFR to VFR CIGs. These lower clouds, along with a SE wind of 5-10kt should be sufficient to keep the surface stirred and limit the formation of fog. A weak upper level system nearing from the Ozarks could bring few to scattered showers/thunderstorms to the area in the late night. Chances for them has been on a gradual diminishing trend, thus have PROB30 rather than TEMPO to note rain chances. Isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon could develop thanks to daytime heating produced instability and deep moisture already available. SE winds should become southerly after daybreak at 5-10kt, then back to a SE-S direction late in the TAF.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.