textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 556 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

- Low to Medium chances (20-60%) for showers and thunderstorms are forecast each afternoon today through Tuesday - NWS Heat Risk highlights Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat impacts across the Tennessee Valley late this week (Thursday through Saturday).

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 206 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Precipitation has finally come to an end as of 07z as the cold front is clearing the Tennessee Valley early this morning. In its wake, satellite and observational data are indicating some patchy fog and low stratus are beginning to develop thanks to the moist boundary layer conditions and the calm winds behind the front. These low clouds may linger through the morning hours, before beginning to scatter out by the afternoon. Despite the frontal passage, there won't be much change in our air mass as dewpoints remain in the lower 70s across the region. However, cloud cover should keep temperatures a good 8-10 degrees lower than the previous day, with highs in the low to mid 80s being common. While the surface front has passed through, the mid/upper trough will finally swing into the Tennessee Valley later this afternoon, serving as a focus for low to medium chance for showers and a few general thunderstorms (20-50%). The higher chances will be for locations along/north of the of the Tennessee River.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Sunday night into Monday, the upper low weakens as it shifts more SSE into northern Alabama. This should allow for even more widespread shower and thunderstorm activity to occur Monday afternoon (50-70%). Again, due to the weakening nature of this upper low, not really seeing ample shear or instability in place for strong to severe thunderstorm development. However, some training of bands of heavier rainfall and maybe isolated flash flooding could occur given the location of the slowly moving upper low. A bit more morning sunshine could allow highs to climb a tad higher, but still given cloud cover and precipitation, highs should only top out int the upper 70s to around 85 degrees.

As we move into Tuesday, The upper low starts to shift to the east and then NW as an approaching longwave trough axis draws it that direction. This should keep medium to high (40-60%) chances of shower and thunderstorm in the forecast near and east of the I-65 corridor on Tuesday afternoon. Again, shear and instability look too meager for any strong thunderstorm development.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 942 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Towards the middle/end of the week the upper low opens into an open wave that merges with a longwave trough axis approaching the Ohio Valley region. This should continue to lower shower and thunderstorm chances into the low to medium chance category.

GFS shows a convective complex developing over the southeast however, this looks a lot like convective feedback at this time. So staying with lower pop Thursday into Friday (20-40%). However, will need to monitor this period for high precipitation chance potential if that materializes. An overall increase in high temperatures are expected Wednesday through the end of the week. Highs should rebound back into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most locations with more sunshine in the morning expected.

Models do seem a bit more convergent on a weak front (longwave trough axis aloft) pushing east into the Tennessee Valley this the weekend. This could create low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the weekend. Again, shear and instability looks to weak for stronger thunderstorm concerns. Dangerous heat index values over 100 degrees may build back into the region by Friday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 556 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Low stratus continues to ooze into the Tennessee Valley from the west early this morning, prompting MVFR conditions at both terminals due to ceilings around 2.5 kft. These ceilings will gradually lift to low-end VFR levels by midday, before cloud cover scatters out by this evening. Winds will be light and generally veer to the west through the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.