textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- Mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will occur this week with a lightning and locally excessive rainfall the primary risks. - Temperatures will remain just below normal through Friday. Heat index values will increase into the upper 90s to around 100 over the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

A deep layer low was centered over NE AL this evening. Multiple rain/storm bands continue at this hour, with the most notable in our forecast area pivoting west through far northwest AL. These should settle down and dissipate for the most part after sunset. Low clouds are expected to develop late tonight and last into Tuesday morning. The low will shift southwest into MS Tuesday afternoon. Additional convergence bands will develop again Tuesday, producing fairly widespread coverage overall once again. The clouds and precipitation will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s in valley areas and upper 70s atop the higher Cumberland Plateau.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The low meanders slowly west into AR and OK on Wednesday, and northwestward into MO or KS on Thursday as more of an open wave. A lingering convergence zone will remain in place southeast from the low into the TN Valley but with some downward QG motion indicated which may tend to decrease rain chances somewhat. Highs will reach the middle to upper 80s Wednesday and Thursday with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. The primary components of these storms will be lightning and locally heavy rainfall with a low risk of flash flooding.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 907 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Through the long term, mid level ridging will push into the Ohio Valley. This will work to displace the pesky surface low, that has prompted our high rain chances, to our SE. While previous forecasts showed drier conditions for the second half of the week, recent models have consistently trended wetter with rain chance of 40-60% remaining each afternoon. This is due to the fact that the approaching mid level high is not bringing in as much dry air as previously forecast. In fact, our environment thermodynamically looks to remain unchanged through the long term. Thus, even with our forcing mechanism (the aforementioned surface low) displaced to our SE, any small boundaries or outflows will be enough to initiate storms each afternoon. The significant moisture in the profile paired with decent instability will maintain heavy rainfall and gusty downburst winds as a threat each day. While widespread severe storms do not look likely at this time, the environment will be capable of a stray stronger storm or two. Make sure to remain weather aware if partaking in outdoor activities.

While our thermodynamics remain unchanged, one thing that the approaching ridge does look to impact is our temperatures. Highs look to warm from high 80s on Thursday to the low 90s by Monday. With dew points remaining in the 70s, this will push our heat indices near triple digits. Ensembles remain pessimistic regarding our chances of hitting Heat Advisory criteria, however it will remain important for those outside to practice proper heat safety through the weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1143 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

With the upper low spinning overhead, expect very isolated showers to persist across northern AL through the night. Ceilings are forecast to lower from VFR down to MVFR overnight. There is a low chance for IFR cloud bases closer to daybreak, but this will be monitored and amendments will be made as needed. Tomorrow, afternoon showers and storms will increase in coverage bringing both reductions in ceilings and visibilities. Timing is still uncertain so added these in a prob 30 group. VFR conditions return late tomorrow night.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.