textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 857 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

- A low chance of severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening as a weak boundary drops south into the area. Damaging winds, heavy downpours and frequent lightning will be concerns with this activity.

- A more organized threat for severe thunderstorms will exist Saturday afternoon and evening as a broken line of storms will move this the region. Damaging winds and localized flash flooding will be the primary concerns.

- Another low chance of severe storms will exist on Sunday with a weak front near the area, with localized damaging winds and heavy rainfall the primary concerns. Rain chances will drop considerably by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 857 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Remnants of an MCS over the Ohio Valley and Mid South continue to track ESE toward this Tennessee Valley this morning. This initial activity should continue wane as it drops toward out area due to a more stable, lower shear environment in northern Alabama. It is unclear as to how this earlier sub-severe convection will impact our prospect for thunderstorms later in the day. Should this activity hold together and move in between 16-20z, it may stabilize the environment, mitigating our severe threat for the afternoon. Another solution would drop an outflow boundary into the area that may serve as a focus for showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. A few storms could become strong to marginally severe in the scenario, with damaging winds and heavy downpours the main threat. Any convection over the area should wane by sunset, with a break in the action occurring for most of the night. Between 09-12z, we'll have to watch for the redevelopment of convection along a boundary to the north of the area, which some Hi-Res solutions attempting to bring storms through during this early morning window. For now, think our elevated storm prospects are still pretty low late tonight, save for our southern middle Tennessee counties.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday) Issued at 857 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A more organized severe threat appears to be in the cards for Saturday afternoon and evening across the Tennessee Valley, contingent on what any potential morning elevated convection does to the storm environment. PoPs will be very high on Saturday due to the potential two rounds of storms (80-100%), with Hi-Res guidance bringing a few clusters of subsevere storms during the early/mid morning hours and then a break in the late morning to early afternoon. Sufficient heating should allow for good boundary layer recovery by mid/late afternoon, with MLCAPE values up to 1500-2000 J/kg, DCAPE values around 1100 J/kg,and steep low- level lapse rates of 8.5 to 9 C/km. This will favor damaging winds/downbursts for any storms that can move through during the mid/late afternoon to evening window (2-10 PM). SPC has upgraded the entire CWA to a Slight Risk (Level 2/5) for this reason. Corfidi upshear vectors are around 300 deg at 8-10 kts, meaning some backbuilding may occur and that we'll have to watch for a localized heavy rainfall/flooding threat as well.

We continue to have low confidence in timing given the uncertainties how convection upstream will impact conditions in our area -- with some 12z solutions favoring a later arrival time. This is something we will need to watch for over the next 24 hours. However, do anticipate a severe risk will develop Saturday afternoon/evening at some point and it will be important for everyone (especially those with outdoor plans) to stay weather aware and have multiple ways to get warnings.

With a remnant outflow across or just south of the area on Sunday, another low risk of strong to severe storms is forecast again Sunday afternoon and evening. Localized damaging winds will be a threat, but locally heavy rainfall/flash flooding may rise to the forefront, depending on how much rainfall occurs on Saturday and where the strongest storms track/backbuild.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2026

The first half of the long term will continue our unsettled pattern. As we step into the new work week, a weak surface low looks to be parked over the TN Valley with a stalled front draped through our CWA. Mid level riding to our north will will keep the surface features in place through Wednesday prompting medium to high rain and storm chances each afternoon. While not currently outlooked, the very moist and warm environment will be conducive for our typical summer thunderstorm threat of heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Please check back for updates regarding any chances for severe weather or flooding.

One upside will be the relatively mild temperatures that will come with the higher rain chances. Highs look to remain in the low to mid 80s through the first half of the week. By Wednesday evening, mid level high pressure looks to finally sag south, displacing our pesky low and associated rain chances. Conditions look to dry out on Thursday. Lower rain chances of course me warmer temps with high reaching back into the 90s by the end of the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 543 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

VFR TAF are forecast to continue through the morning and into the first part of the afternoon. Thunderstorms are forecast to develop later today which may impact the terminals with reduce visibility and ceilings. Kept as MVFR for now, but trends will be monitored with upstream storms. Once the sun sets, showers and storms should dissipate bringing a return to VFR.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.