textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

- Medium chances for showers and storms Friday into Saturday with low chances continuing through Thursday.

- NWS Heat Risk will remain in the Minor to Moderate category throughout the forecast period.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Currently, convection can be seen both to our north and to our south supported by two different features. To our north, a broken line of storms can be seen draped across Tennessee supported by a front. This front is forecast to stall just to our north through the night with rain chances remaining below 10% through sunrise. Lows look to drop into the low 70s with muggy conditions remaining in place into Friday.

To our south, convection can be seen through southern Alabama supported by a weak shortwave rippling up from the south. Through the day on Friday this shortwave will push north and keep us within southerly flow both at the surface and aloft. As such, tropical moisture will surge north with dew points pushing into the low 70s and PWATS near and above 2". This level of moisture is slightly anomalous for early September and more closely resembles peak summer conditions. With support of the passing short wave and plentiful moisture, rain and storm chances will increase through the day tomorrow, peaking in the afternoon. Scattered showers will move from SW to NE across the area through the afternoon with heavy rainfall being the primary threat. Solar insulation in the morning will allow us to destabilize, yet we will be lacking any significant shear that would allow storms to organize. As such, scattered general thunderstorms with a few stronger storms is what we are currently forecasting. Strongest storms will be capable of efficient rainfall production and and brief gusty winds. Storm coverage looks to wane after sunset with additional rain chances addressed in the short term.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Weak support from both the approaching front and departing shortwave will keep low rain chances in place overnight and into Saturday morning. The approaching front looks to finally drop down on Saturday, however models suggest that it will dissipate over us. As such, support for showers and storms will remain weak and significant air mass change will not follow. Rain chances will increase through the afternoon taking advantage of the continued very moist conditions. Instability will likely be less on Saturday due to the prolonged clouds and low rain chances, keeping our severe risk near zero. Rather, heavy rain will again be our main concern. Through the next 24 hours we will be keeping a closer eye on HIRES model guidance. CAMS have begun to back off on shower and storm coverage on Saturday, which may lead to our current rain chances being too high. Adjustments to our rain chances will be made as necessary over the next 24 hours as the model solution becomes more clear.

Showers and storms look to dissipate overnight with dry conditions building in. Through Sunday, high pressure will build in from the southwest. This will maintain our hot and humid conditions on Sunday with highs again in the 90s. With dew points in the mid 70s, heat indices will easily surge over triple digits. Make sure to continue to practice proper heat and sun safety if spending time outside.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 808 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

As we start the following work week, the upper level pattern shows a large amplitude ridge over most of the central and eastern US. With high pressure situated underneath the ridge, expect hot and humid conditions to continue through the middle of next week. Afternoon highs each afternoon will rise into the low to mid 90s with overnight lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s. With dewpoints in the lower 70s, heat indices are forecast to top out between 98-104F. This is just below Advisory criteria, but regardless NWS HeatRisk remains level 2 out of 4 (Moderate) through the end of the long term period. Outside of the heat, there is a low chance of an afternoon shower or thunderstorm Monday through Thursday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1242 AM CDT Fri Sep 11 2026

VFR conditions will continue through Friday afternoon. between 18-20Z, PROB30 groups were added for increased rain chances that will persist intermittently through the end of the TAF period. During periods of rainfall, lowered visibilities and ceilings will allow MVFR conditions at both KMSL and KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.