textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

- A low risk of excessive rainfall and brief flash flooding exists through early this week.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue into the late week.

- Seasonable temperatures are forecast this week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 320 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

We are currently monitoring fog development early this morning as some isolated spots have begun to dip down to visibilities of less than a half of a mile. Areas that received a good bit of rainfall yesterday will likely see some fog formation this morning as winds remain very light. If dense fog looks to be more widespread across our area, a Dense Fog Advisory may be needed. Regardless, morning commuters should prepare for brief reductions in visibility and give yourself extra time to get to where you need to go this morning. Otherwise, attention turns to storm potential this afternoon and evening. Medium to high chances (45-80 percent) for rain and thunderstorms will be present today. Plenty of instability and moisture to work with today with light southwesterly steering flow. PWATS on the BMX 00z sounding hitting above the 90th percentile with 1.81 inches. Severe risk looks low with limited shear to work with. However, a couple more robust updrafts could produce short-lived, strong wind gusts with DCAPE values above 800 J/kg and small hail. Weak steering flow could also lead to ponding of water on roadways and localized flooding concerns as well as reduced visibilities in torrential downpours for motorists on area roadways. Lightning will remain a threat with any convection for those partaking in outdoor activities. High temps this afternoon will hover around seasonal average in the upper 80s with "feels-like" temps or heat indices in the upper 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The upper low over the Ozarks will sluggishly shift east into the mid South Monday night through Wednesday which will continue to keep at least low chances of showers and thunderstorms. Coverage is a bit uncertain, but there is concern for locally excessive rain given the moist profile and slow movement of rainfall. Temperatures will remain consistent day to day as well with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 valleys (middle 80s Plateau), with lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 738 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2026

The upper low over the Ozark Plateau will be picked up by the westerlies and directed east through the OH Valley Thursday into Friday. This happens while another trough axis drops southeast into the Great Lakes into the MO Valley along with a weak frontal boundary. Westerly flow at 5h will persist across the mid South and TN Valley as a result. Clusters of thunderstorms will remain tied close to the boundary. For Wednesday and Thursday, only low mainly afternoon chances of a shower or thunderstorm are forecast. As the boundary sags south into the TN valley Friday through Sunday, chances of thunderstorms will go up, peaking at 50-80% Saturday, dropping to 40-60% Sunday. High temperatures will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Wednesday-Friday, upper 80s to around 90 Saturday, and middle to upper 80s Sunday. Lows will be consistently in the lower 70s for the most part.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Conditions will start the period in VFR thresholds but are expected to deteriorate to MVFR in BR between 09z-13z at both KHSV and KMSL. During this time SCT low clouds between 500-1000 ft are possible. Conditions will improve to VFR after sunrise by around 13z. Scattered SHRA and TSRA are forecast to develop late this morning into this evening. Have pushed back forecast timing for TSRA to 21z-01z based on latest model runs. Confidence is low at this time in timing. Lightning and gusty, erratic winds remain the main concerns with thunderstorms in addition to MVFR to IFR vsbys and cigs. Outside of storms, winds will remain light and variable before sunrise and after sundown with light, southwesterly winds expected at speeds less than 8 knots.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.