textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1011 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Low to medium chances of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River through Wednesday.

- Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday across much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, with heat indices between 90-100F forecast.

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with a low risk for severe storms on Thursday and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

A tranquil afternoon and evening across the Tennessee Valley, with just some passing high clouds associated with an area of low pressure to the south and west. Partly to mostly cloudy conditions will prevail overnight, and model soundings favor the formation of some low stratus and/or some patchy fog in the moistening boundary later in the predawn hours after Midnight. This cloud cover will also help keep temperatures a bit milder than last night, with lows remaining in the mid to upper 60s in most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1011 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On Wednesday the Tennessee Valley will be wedged between a strong front north of the Ohio River and a developing "tropical" low off the TX/LA coastline. Moisture will gradually increase across the region as the southern system pivots to the northeast as evidenced by dewpoints returning to the lower 70s. Additionally, some breaks in the cloud cover will allow temperatures to creep back into the mid/upper 80s to lower 90s, with moderate heat impacts as heat index values return to the upper 90s. Additionally a low (20-30%) for a few diurnally driven showers and storms will exist during the afternoon and evening hours. A much warmer night is forecast Wednesday night as cloud cover increases (and dewpoints remain in the low 70s), resulting in mid 70s lows being common despite rain showers holding off.

A broad upper-trough over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will amplify on Thursday, "picking up" the aforementioned tropical feature and bring it into south/central Mississippi and Alabama during the afternoon/evening and overnight hours. This will bring high (70-90%) chances for showers and thunderstorms during this window. Heavy rainfall and flooding will become a concern Thursday as PWATs increase to between 1.8-2.0" (90-95th percentile per BMX/OHX sounding climo) and given the moist soils WPC has placed the entire region under a Slight Risk (2/4) of excessive rainfall due to the favorable setup for slow, efficient rain producing storms. Additionally a low threat for severe weather is forecast Thursday afternoon/evening into Thursday night as low-end, but sufficient thermodynamics combine with favorable shear to generate clusters of strong to marginally severe storms -- largely in multicell or low-top supercell structures. Thus, a conditional, low tornado threat may evolve sometime during this timeframe as well as a localized gusty wind threat with the strongest storms. The main concern will be hydro, however, given the potential for high coverage of efficient rain-producing storms in a tropical air mass. Thus, flash flooding will be a concern, especially heading into Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Looks like we will end the work week with more rain. The question will be if the cold front has already arrived by now or if it will push in Friday morning. It will arrive to an environment with plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and PWATs 1.9-2.1" which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year. The best shear will be displaced pretty far north of us, and the associated sfc low will be north of the Lower Great Lakes. So right now, the main concern with the showers and thunderstorms that develop along the cold front is heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding or flash flooding. WPC has already placed us in a Slight ERO for Friday. Regardless, with the rainfall that we receive this week, we will see rises in rivers, creeks and streams on Friday, with issues lasting into the weekend. This is also reflected in the NASA SPoRT Stream Heights model for some creeks and rivers in our forecast area. The forecast gets further complicated when asking the questions, at what pace does the cold front push through the TN Valley and at what trajectory does the left overs of a possible tropical system move into the region? If the cold front if able to get south of us pretty quick on Friday, it will keep the higher rainfall totals in central AL. If not, or if it stalls out over us, we will see higher rainfall totals, thus more flooding problems.

Post frontal high pressure will build in and provide rainfall relief for Saturday. This will be short-lived though, as low chances (30-40%) return on Sunday and Monday. This is due to a disturbance that scoots from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, then another system swings through the Midwest and pushes another cold front into the region.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions will continue through late this evening, before low stratus begin to develop around/after Midnight, prompting MVFR conditions and for a brief period IFR conditions around daybreak. Thereafter, ceilings will lift to MVFR to low-end VFR conditions by the mid/late Wednesday morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.