textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

- Very high rain chances (100%) will be present Friday through Saturday with a risk for flash flooding and a low risk for severe weather on Friday.

- Storm Total Rainfall of 1.5 to 3 inches are forecast, with locally higher amounts up to 5 inches. A Flash Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Tennessee Valley from 6 AM Friday to Noon Saturday.

- A conditional, very low severe weather threat may evolve Friday afternoon and evening with gusty, damaging winds and a tornado or two being the main threats.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 158 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A few light echoes were noted on radar this afternoon well ahead of a lead shortwave trough that move from the Southern Plains into the Mid South/lower Ohio Valley. This will gradually continue this evening and especially late tonight as a deeper shot of Gulf moisture advects into the region. A glance at soundings and hodographs suggests fairly strong wind shear which will help to produce organized clusters of thunderstorms. This convection will likely be in the form of a line of storms and potentially even some mini supercellular structures. However, this activity will almost certainly be elevated given complete lack of instability available. While a localized damaging wind threat may exist with this late tonight into Friday morning, think this will be very limited given the lack of surface-based instability. Moreover, this morning convection will produce around 1" of rainfall which will set the stage for additional heavy rainfall and flooding concerns Friday afternoon/evening into Friday night. Hi-Res guidance continues to hone in on the same late tonight/early Friday morning timing for these clusters of convection and have reflected this in our grids and messaging.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1039 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A very active pattern will continue Friday and Friday night across the Tennessee Valley, with multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms likely. These additional showers and storms could produce storm total rainfall amounts of 1.5" to 3", with localized amounts up to 4 to 5" through Noon on Saturday. A Flood Watch has been issued for the entire Tennessee Valley from 6 AM Friday through Noon Saturday. Initial round of convection will clear the region by late morning, with a "lull" potentially occurring through the early/mid afternoon. Hi-Res guidance indicates a differential heating boundary setting up just south of the area across portions of central Mississippi/Alabama during this 15-21z timeframe. Convection should continue and redevelop during this day along this feature -- which will gradually attempt to move northward toward this Tennessee Valley late in the afternoon into the evening hours.

Wherever this boundary sets up, an enhanced area of rainfall will occur -- with the primary severe weather threat remaining along and south of this feature. Should the boundary make its way into southern portions of the region, our confidence in a swath of 4-5"+ of rainfall will increase -- along with some higher confidence in a few severe storms, including with damaging winds and a tornado or two (given the shear profile) being on the table. However, as noted think this is highly conditional on where the boundary stalls (with the highest confidence being south of the area).

A deepening upper-low will barrel into the lower Mississippi Valley Friday evening/night, with strong forcing bringing more widespread moderate to locally heavy showers and thunderstorms. Instability looks to be pretty meager, meaning any convection will likely be elevated and the severe threat very low. The main concern will be multiple rounds of rainfall that will linger overnight and into the early morning hours on Saturday. As a strong front finally sweeps through the area, precipitation chances (and the flooding threat) will wane quickly Saturday morning. Temperatures will gradually fall through the day from the 60s in the morning to the low to mid 50s by the evening hours. Mostly clear conditions late Saturday night will likely result in some patchy fog early Sunday morning. Sunday will then be a much cooler and drier day -- with NW winds keeping highs in the 40s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

By the second half of the weekend we will be solidly post frontal. Aloft, zonal flow will dominate through the long term. At the surface, high pressure will build in the southern Plains and slowly translate east through the start of the work week. Locally, the zonal flow paired with NW winds along the eastern periphery of surface high pressure will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to be ushered into the TN Valley. This will be immediately felt on Sunday as highs will be retained to the low to mid 40s. By Sunday night after a full day of CAA, lows will drop into the low to mid 20s making for a chill start of the work week. Without any significant changes to the synoptic pattern through the beginning of the work week, temps will be slow to warm with highs only warming to the low 50s by Wednesday and lows only warming to the low 30s by Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 453 PM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

The forecast for this TAF period will be rather pessimistic as high rain and storm chances will be present at both terminals through the whole day tomorrow. Ceilings will drop after 6Z and continue to deteriorate through the night. By sunrise large areas of rain will likely be present across the whole area. Rain and low ceilings will remain at the terminals through the TAF period with some elevated thunderstorms from mid morning through the evening. Heaviest showers and storms that move directly over the terminals will lower ceiling and visibilities. We will adjust the TAFs and amend as necessary as the event unfolds and we have a better idea of the timing and location of heaviest showers and storms.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Flood Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for TNZ076-096-097.