textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

- The coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening hours before dissipating. Lightning and heavy rainfall/flash flooding will be the potential impacts.

- Medium to high coverage of showers and thunderstorms will continue in the afternoon and evening hours on Tuesday.

- A lower coverage of afternoon thunderstorms is expected on Wednesday, before medium to high chances return again on Thursday and Friday.

- Concerns for dangerous heat will increase and become an increasing concern by Friday/Saturday (heat index values increase to between 100 and 104 degrees).

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 218 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Convection earlier this afternoon produced very heavy rainfall rates over portions of northeastern Alabama, particularly in southeastern Jackson into eastern DeKalb counties. In these areas, 1 to 2 inches of rainfall occurred in many locations with some locally higher amounts approaching 3.5 inches.

Elsewhere, more scattered shower and thunderstorm activity has produced one quarter to around 1 inch of rainfall. This activity is being produced by an area of low pressure aloft that is moving further southeast towards Cullman county (AL) from northeastern Alabama.

The main ingredients for some heavy rainfall & possible flash flooding remain in place: 1) the slow movement and consistent forcing associated with the upper low 2) a very saturated airmass (PWATS of 1.9 to 1.9 inches), and training of heavier rainfall around the upper low.

A secondary heavy rainfall axis looks to be setting up from western portions of Lincoln county (TN) SW into Lawrence county (AL) over the last hour or so. This area will need to be watched over the next few hours specifically for flash flooding if showers intensify and thunderstorms develop along that convergence axis.

Some activity (coverage 40-60%) should continue linger into the early evening hours (some higher chances between 40 and 60 percent) before dissipating. Cloud cover near the upper low (likely near Cullman county or the Birmingham area) will likely keep fog from forming. However, where some breaks occur isolated locally dense fog could occur west of the I-65 corridor where winds should be light and variable. Low temperatures should be a bit cooler via upstream advection dropping into the upper 60s to around 70 degrees in most locations.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

The upper low continues to meander to the west into the day on Tuesday. This will allow high rain and thunderstorm chances to develop again during the mid morning hours, especially near the upper low to its east. The location of the upper low by then will likely keep 60 to 80 percent coverage of activity over locations near and west of the I-65 corridor. Rain chances should drop off more east of I-65, but low to medium chances of precipitation will continue even there through the afternoon hours. High PWATS will remain in place with enough instability and forcing near and west of the I-65 corridor for the flash flooding concern to remain in place in those areas. More localize flash flooding could still occur further east, but confidence is much lower in those locations. With temperatures starting out a bit lower on Tuesday morning, highs will likely be about the same, despite maybe seeing a few breaks in cloud cover east of the I-65 corridor. Low to medium shower and thunderstorm coverage will likely linger into the early evening hours again before dissipating. There may be a few more breaks in cloud cover Tuesday night that could allow fog and patchy dense fog to be a little more common. Lows will again drop into the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Rain and thunderstorms chances lessen a bit on Wednesday, as the upper low in most guidance shifts further west into central Arkansas and weakens. We will be on the eastern edge of an upper ridge with some weaker shortwave pushing SE along it through the area. This will likely keep at least scattered showers and thunderstorms in the forecast in the morning. This activity should increase near the AL/MS border and into southern middle Tennessee in the afternoon into the early evening hours, before dissipating. Lows will likely remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

New guidance keeps a boundary through north central Alabama in a NNW to SSE orientation and an upper level disturbance moves along it. This will again keep medium to high (50-60%) chances of rainfall in the forecast on Thursday and the center of the upper ridge to our northeast. It will be a tad warmer though with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Temperatures look to fall again into the lower 70s on Thursday night. More widespread fog may occur Thursday night, with only partly cloudy conditions expected overnight.

Ridging at the mid levels coupled with high pressure at the surface will work to displace our lingering Friday night into Saturday. This will allow slightly drier air to filter in at the mid levels and work to gradually decrease our rain chances by the weekend However, likely shower and thunderstorm chances will linger into Friday afternoon/early evening.

In wake of the higher rain chances, heat will build back in with highs making it into the low 90s for the weekend. Unfortunately surface moisture will remain plentiful with dew points in the mid 70s. This will allow weekend heat indices to creep into the triple digits. While conditions currently look to remain below Heat Advisory criteria, proper heat safety will still be necessary for those partaking in outdoor activities.

Despite the lower rain chances, a stray stronger storm each afternoon will post a sneaky secondary threat behind heat. Conditions will remain favorable for gusty downburst winds among the strongest storms. Make sure to remain weather aware if spending time outdoors and check back for the latest updates.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 458 PM CDT Mon Jul 13 2026

Scattered SHRA and isolate TSRA will tend to dissipate this evening with loss of daytime heating. Lower clouds with ceilings of 020-025agl (MVFR) are forecast to develop by 05-06Z, and lower to 010-015agl by 09-13Z. Scattered to numerous SHRA and isolated TSRA are forecast again on Tuesday, so have included VCSH at both TAF locations for now. Future forecasts may include TSRA when timing and location becomes more defined. Ceilings should improve to VFR by NLT than 20Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.