textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 840 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

- There is a low risk for strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon across the southeastern half of the forecast area. Damaging wind gusts, small hail, and frequent lightning will be the main threats with any activity.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 840 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Satellite, radar, and surface observations paint a fairly clear picture of the current surface features across the TN Valley. Just to our SW, convection and cloud cover can be seen along a weak surface trough. This trough and associated convection is forecast to stay to our south through the night with dry conditions forecast overnight. NW of this feature, winds have backed to the north, beginning our influx of slightly cooler and drier air.

Through the day tomorrow, the surface trough looks to lift slightly north as set up in NE AL. This feature will induce a cold air damaging regime across the southern appalachians. Along the surface trough, slightly higher dew points and instability looks to develop in NE AL. Paired with lift from the trough, this will act as a focus for shower and storm development tomorrow afternoon. As such, SPC has maintained a marginal risk for severe weather for NE AL tomorrow afternoon with threats of damaging wind and hail. Storms will likely initiate along the surface trough, if the trough sets up SW of our CWA, most of the area could remain dry. Elsewhere, northerly flow will dominate both at the surface and aloft with CAA being maintained through the day. As such, temps will only rise into the low to mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 840 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Through the short term forecast the aforementioned surface trough will slowly dampen and lift north. While additional showers and thunderstorms are not currently forecast along this feature, slight gradients in temperatures, dew points, may develop through the short term forecast. Aloft, we will remain sandwiched between troughing to our NE and ridging to our SW. This will place us solidly within NW flow, which will reinforce our cooler and drier air mass. Temperatures look to remain in the mid 80s through the end of the week.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 840 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

The main talking point in the long term will be monitoring the progression of the aforementioned low pressure system as it shifts northeastward out of the area. Ensembles have the Tennessee Valley remaining ahead of an upper level ridge to the west, supporting dry conditions through Tuesday. Depending on the progression of these systems, the end of the long term could bring low chances of rainfall back into the forecast as early as Tuesday afternoon as the ridge progresses east of our area. Confidence remains low in rain chances, so have continued with blended guidance for now. Otherwise, along with the approaching ridge, a gradual warming pattern will be in store for us. Highs are forecast to warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s again Tuesday after being limited to the low to mid 80s through most of the weekend. Lows are forecast to drop into the 50s through the weekend, which will be a welcomed change after the above normal pattern we've experienced the past several weeks. Don't break out the hot chocolate yet- the Climate Prediction Center continues to outlook the Tennessee Valley in above normal temperatures through early October in the 8-14 day period. On the bright side, no heat products are on the horizon for us through at least the next 7 days.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

VFR conditions are expected for most of the night with a lower MVFR cloud deck moving in around sunrise tomorrow. Lower MVFR clouds look to hold on for most of the morning before lifting back to VFR to midday. There remains a low chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms tomorrow afternoon however confidence in timing and location is currently too low to include in the TAF.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.