textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

- There is a low risk for severe thunderstorms (mainly across northwest AL) during the pre-dawn hours Today. Large hail and gusty winds be the main threat with a very low risk of a tornado.

- A low risk for severe thunderstorms will continue this afternoon and evening. The primary threats will be damaging winds and large hail, with a low risk of a tornado or two.

- There is a low to medium risk of excessive rainfall (with a low threat for localized flash flooding) through Tonight.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 119 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Multiple clusters of deep convection have developed from southwest TN through central AR into southeast OK within the maximum moisture transport zone along a cold front. The activity has been elevated thus far as outflow has been pushing southeast of the updrafts. However, effective bulk shear of ~60kt and ample MUCAPE will continue to provide at least a limited risk of large hail and gusty winds. Damaging winds would appear unlikely unless the storms become surface based. Expect the storms to track east across north AL and southern middle TN from 08-14Z, with additional clusters redeveloping late this morning into the midday hours to our west and moving through during the afternoon. Inflow dew points in the lower to middle 60s are found in MS into southwest TN, which will eventually shift into north AL and southern middle TN toward morning, and even reach the upper 60s to around 70. PWs of 1.5 inches + are indicated which will lend toward very heavy downpours. Outflow from the morning activity may shift into our southern counties during the afternoon, which may in turn shift the risk of surface based severe weather. However, the risk for excessive rainfall and isolated flash flooding may develop as repeated episodes of heavy downpours occur north of the outflow. Forecast high temperatures will be in the lower to middle 70s, only a couple degrees off of what we have currently.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Friday) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

With time, convection to the north of this feature (but south of the cold front) will become elevated, but may still be capable of producing locally strong winds and hail. Due to a favorable environment for echo training and very moist tropospheric profile (featuring PWAT values of 1.7-1.9"), most locations will receive 2-3 inches of rain by the time precipitation ends early Thursday morning, which will increase the risk for flash/areal flooding (especially tomorrow evening when rain and elevated convection could become fairly widespread).

Dry weather will return during the period from Thursday-Friday, as zonal flow aloft weakens and a ridge of surface high pressure shifts from the southern Plains into the southern Appalachians and off the coast of NC. As this occurs, northerly flow will subside on Thursday night, setting the stage for cool overnight lows in the m-u 40s. The onset of light southerly return flow on Friday will boost highs back into the u60s-m70s.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1001 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

An upper level low pressure system situated over the Hudson Bay region should slowly drift eastward from Ontario into Quebec as we go through the weekend and early next week. This system will help maintain general troughing along the eastern North American domain. Lower heights as a result of large scale troughing will tend to keep daily temperatures close to or below seasonable norms. With the average trough weakening somewhat, it should not be as chilly Friday night, with lows mostly in the lower 50s.

The cold front that went southward across the area during Wednesday; by Friday evening should be stationary, extending in a west to east manner from coastal Texas, across the Florida Panhandle and off of the GA/FL coast. An overrunning of moisture from the Gulf region, as well as upglide noted in the 300K region, will make for an unsettled weekend across the Tennessee Valley. The lifting of moisture in the lower altitudes as shown in the isentropic view will bring lower end chances for showers mainly over our more southern areas Friday night into Saturday night. Deeper moisture returning northward will bring higher end rain chances, along with some thunder mixed amongst the heavier showers late Saturday into Sunday. Given that this setup is more of an upglide/overrunning type event and there is minimal instability, thunderstorms should remain "general" in intensity. Another cold front should sweep in a west to east manner across the area late Sunday into early Monday. Dry weather should return, just in time for the new work week.

Far as temperatures, high temperatures Saturday, with more clouds than sun and low rain chances to our south, should rise into the mid/upper 70s. Even with rain chances, high temps Sunday should rise into the lower 80s. Temperatures should cool down Sunday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s. A bit cooler next Monday with highs in the mid 70s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR conditions will initially exist at the HSV/MSL terminals. To our northwest, clusters of TSRA continue to slowly evolve along a cold front from southwestern AR into western TN, with outflow expected to reach northern AL during the early morning hours. Thus, we have included SHRA as the prevailing weather condition from 8-12Z, with a TEMPO for TSRA and low-MVFR vsby/IFR cig during this timeframe. Present indications are that this initial activity will quickly shift eastward and out of the region late tomorrow morning, but with rapid redevelopment of convection occurring in its wake, both along a remnant outflow boundary (likely to be positioned south of the TN River) and along the synoptic cold front (to our northwest). Due to uncertainty in timing for this second round of convection, we have included PROB30 groups from 16-20Z. AWWs for lightning, strong wind gusts (perhaps as high as 50-55 knots) and hail may be needed at times with storms both during the early morning and in the mid-day. Persistent rain (accompanied by MVFR vsby/IFR cig) will occur toward the end of the forecast period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.