textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

- High chances for rain and very low chances for a thunderstorm or two later this afternoon into this tonight.

- A gradual warming trend will begin early next week, with above normal temperatures favored through much of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Warm air advection, despite cloudy conditions south of a stalled frontal boundary stretching from northern Oklahoma east through northern Tennessee, has pushed temperatures into the lower to mid 50s across much of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Radar depicts precipitation falling aloft well ahead of a surface low over northeastern Texas and southern Oklahoma over Alabama & Tennessee as well as portions of northern Mississippi south of this stalled front. Further west over Arkansas, this precipitation aloft is making it to the ground. Based on 6 AM soundings, virga should hold on for a bit longer over northern AL and southern middle TN. Thinking we could see the atmospheric column in the boundary layer saturating between 11 AM and 2 PM. Scattered showers look reasonable based on the progged strong lift over the area through that timeframe.

The most widespread/heavier rainfall will likely develop over the area after 3 or 4 PM and continue through the evening hours, as the surface low moves east and into northern Alabama this evening. Model trends with SBCAPE instability are remaining south of the area, confined primarily to southern/central Alabama and the Gulf coast states. Though a tad of elevated instability might make it into Cullman or Marshall counties late this afternoon into the very early evening hours. This could produce an elevated thunderstorm or two late this afternoon into the evening hours.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Models develop another surface low in response to a secondary disturbance developing further south in upper level flow over Louisiana towards daybreak on Saturday. This quickly moves E or ESE Saturday morning. The more southern location in the upper level flow should facilitate little change in the airmass over the area on Saturday, but put an end to precipitation by 8 or 9 AM. Highs will be limited by lingering cloudy conditions that will likely stick around through much of the afternoon hours. This will keep highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

By Saturday night, the front stalled to our north is shifted southeast by a dry clipper system that pushes southeast through NW flow. This will bring very slightly drier and cooler air briefly into the area. Temperatures should fall into the lower 30s behind the front by daybreak on Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1052 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Despite clear skies on Sunday, some cold air advection should keep highs from climbing above the upper 40s to lower 50s. Northwest flow aloft becomes more quasi-zonal to zonal early next week, as a strong surface high become entrenched over the eastern seaboard. Models do show one piece of energy aloft that moves east from the Northern Plains into the large surface high that will likely bring some more substantial precipitation to the Great Lakes region/ne CONUS, but overall weakens as it pushes into the surface high.

The main takeaway from that is areas further south will remain primarily dry and warmer than normal through Tuesday night or Wednesday. A very low chance of showers (20-30%) may exist though Tuesday night through Wednesday night, as the weak front stalls over the northeast and extends into the Tennessee Valley region. With southwesterly flow developing and increasing in strength, highs should warm into the 60s by Tuesday and by mid- week possible in the lower 70s.

Models do show a stronger upper low/shortwave embedded in zonal flow developing over the Baja of CA or the desert southwest around this time. This will bring unstable and wet conditions to those areas and will be the next weather producer for the Tennessee Valley region towards the end of the week. Temperatures should continue to warm through the end of the week, possibly climbing into the lower 70s at some point through Thursday.

Most models do hold the surface high in place over the eastern seaboard though through then, so there remains a question as to how far south heavier rainfall or thunderstorm activity may extends southward from northern portions of the Tennessee Valley as this disturbance pushes east and then northeast into the Tennessee Valley region on Thursday into Thursday night. There will be enough shear and instability in place for thunderstorm development, but forcing may be more questionable south of Tennessee.

The front pushes southeast on Friday. This actually looks to be the period of more widespread and possibly heavier rainfall for locations near northern Alabama and further south. A much stronger longwave trough axis pushes southeast and helps to produce this stronger forcing and more shear along and ahead of the front. Some stronger storms may be in the cards with this system.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1106 AM CST Fri Jan 2 2026

Mainly virga still seen in radar data, except for a few isolated locations in Alabama. Rainfall reaching the ground is becoming more prevalent in portions of Mississippi though. Likely will see some isolated to scattered coverage of light rain for the next few hours developing over northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee. Kept predominant -RA in place starting at 19Z at KMSL. Still expect -RA at KHSV a bit later around 20Z. RA still looks possible starting around 21Z at KMSL and 22Z at KHSV. Predominant MVFR CIGS and VSBYS are expected with this heavier rainfall. A low stratus deck below 1000 feet is seen in progged soundings towards daybreak. For now, kept previous timing of 03/07Z at KMSL and 03/08Z at KHSV. Expect CIGS to climb above 1000 feet after 03/13Z at KMSL and 03/15Z at KHSV.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.