textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

- An unsettled weather pattern begins Friday night and continues through Sunday with medium to high chances (50%-90%) for showers and thunderstorms each day into mid next week.

- There is a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorm development and flash flooding Saturday into Saturday night.

- Low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast into early next week (30-60%). Temperatures should slowly warm back into the upper 80s to lower 90s then.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

High pressure under northwest flow remains dominant over the TN Valley and will continue to keep a dry and relatively cool airmass in place. In fact, current temps are starting to dip below the 70 degree mark in some locations and will fall to the mid to upper 60s by near sunrise. With the drier air near the sfc, no fog is expected to form overnight.

The forecast should remain dry through much of tomorrow but we will see an increase in Gulf moisture as an upper wave shifts east toward the Great Lakes and a cold front begins to push through the Ozarks. This will bring increasing cloud cover as well as humidity by Friday afternoon with low chances for rain and thunderstorms over NW AL around sunset. Highs tomorrow will be in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices approaching 100 degrees in some locations in NW AL. Stay hydrated and do not leave people or pets unattended in hot vehicles!

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

As the aforementioned system approaches the lower OH and mid MS River valleys, forcing for widespread rain and thunderstorms will increase ahead of the approaching cold front. Widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms are expected across NW AL by Saturday morning and will progress east as we head into the afternoon. There are still some disagreements amongst model guidance that has resulted in a bit of uncertainty regarding how strong or widespread storms will be ahead of and along the front. Any southward deviations that result in heavier rain being pushed to our south late Saturday morning could block the better moisture return but any breaks in the cloud cover and heavy rain would result in stronger sfc heating and instability. Although deep layer shear appears weaker (<30kts), low level winds and hodographs do show decent curvature/veering flow in the lowest 1km that would support the threat for damaging winds and a low tornado threat. This will be highly contingent on how much clearing we see in the early afternoon and if we are able to destabilize enough after the earlier convection.

The risk for flash flooding will also exist as PWATs range from 2.2-2.3" when multiple waves of heavy rain are progged to move through the area. WPC maintains a Slight Risk for excessive rain east of I-65 where there is better confidence in storm coverage later in the day. So definitely keep the dual threat for strong to severe storms and flooding in mind when making outdoor plans on Saturday.

Coverage should begin to decrease from west to east Saturday evening and storms could even exit east of the area by around midnight. Low to medium chances for showers and storms will linger through Sunday as wraparound moisture exists behind the cold front.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1002 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The long term period will begin with lingering rainfall from an aforementioned upper level trough and subsequent front that shifts eastward over the area this weekend. Rain chances should subside from west to east Sunday evening. This will be short-lived as low pressure resides over the southeast U.S., bringing daily shower/thunderstorm chances through mid week. Have continued with blended guidance for now, keeping low to medium PoPs each afternoon due to disagreement in the exact placement of the low within ensembles. Throughout the long term, a gradual warm up is forecast with highs reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees by mid week. These temperatures will be dependent on potential cloud cover (or lack thereof) over the area. If PoPs and coexisting cloud cover trend down as we approach next week, highs will likely be a bit warmer than currently forecast. However, no heat products are on the horizon at this time.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Although a gradual increase in the coverage of high-lvl Ci can be expected during the early morning hours, patchy BR/FG (capable of brief MVFR vsby reductions) will continue to develop in portions of the region given a calm to lgt ENE flow. However, we will monitor trends before including this in the current TAFs. Low- level flow will veer to SSW and strengthen to 5-10 kts later this morning as a developing area of low pressure shifts southeastward across IA. The northward return of deep-layer moisture ahead of this system will lead to a notable increase in both the coverage and density of As/Cs by late aftn, with a narrow axis of SHRA (initially confined to NW AL early tomorrow evening) expected to spread slowly eastward btwn 0-6Z Saturday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.