textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

- Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms are expected Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Low chances for strong to severe storms.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 219 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

2 AM satellite shows a large area of cloud cover moving east across most of Alabama. Clouds are prompted by two features. The first, a stationary front along the Gulf Coast. The second, an area of showers and storms moving east through central AL prompted by a weak shortwave pushing east. While cloud cover associated with the second feature will remain through the night and most of the morning, actual precipitation looks to remain to our south. Models have trended much drier for today in the last 24 hours with the highest rain chances (10-30%) now being right around sun rise for areas south of the TN River as the shortwave passes to our south.

Through the remainder of the day, skies look to gradually clear from the north. Weak southerly flow will allow highs to break into the high 70s to low 80s this afternoon. Without any additional forcing this afternoon, rain chances will remain below 10%.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

As we get into the later half of the weekend and into the start of the work week, our attention changes to some unsettled weather beginning Sunday afternoon/evening.

Before then, a shortwave will move into the region on Saturday, which may help to promote a few isolated showers, especially Cullman county and to the south, where dewpoints will be a little higher. Other than that, WAA and moisture advection will persist into Sunday ahead of a front moving in on Sunday night/Monday morning.

At the moment there is a Marginal risk (1/5) of severe weather across the TN Valley for Sunday into Monday morning. Some strong to severe storms could produce gusty to damaging winds,and hail. Looking at forecast soundings, there will be some instability, with SBCAPE perhaps around 1000 J/kg, which would support some updraft development after mixing later in the day. Though, storms are likely to stay mostly disorganized. Some hail could be supported with model soundings suggesting colder, -10C to -12C air at 500 mb. However confidence is low at the moment. Regardless, PoPs will be fairly high (60-70%) overnight. By Monday, the upper- level through moves out of the area and CAA begins the cool down process behind the surface front. Look for highs to be in the upper 60s to lower 70s on Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 940 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Very amplified NNW flow aloft continues behind the front early Monday evening. At the surface, a large 1024-1025 mb area of high pressure begins to push into northwestern Alabama. Winds should become light after midnight and cooler/drier air will push into the area. Lows in the mid to upper 40s (normal low at KHSV is 58 degrees) at least are expected. Given good radiational cooling setup, lows could be cooler.

This surface high spreads eastward over the northeast and southeastern CONUS during the day on Tuesday. More sunshine on Tuesday despite continuing strong cold air advection should allow highs to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s mainly (normal high at KHSV is 80 degrees).

Also, on Tuesday, a strong upper low moves southeast through NW flow aloft from central Canada towards the Ohio Valley area. A surface front develops southwest from this upper level feature into Tuesday night through Missouri and Oklahoma. Good forcing and increasing low level moisture (though meager) ahead of that front could produce some precipitation ahead of it in those areas.

This activity will remain far north of the area into the early overnight hours on Tuesday. However, models differ shortly after that timeframe if precipitation approaches southern middle Tennessee before 7 AM on Wednesday.

Most of the mid/upper level forcing seen in current guidance stays closer to the Ohio Valley and then pushes southeast towards the Carolinas. This should be where the better chances of rain and maybe thunderstorms would occur.

However, by Wednesday afternoon most guidance does converge on some better forcing edging southwest into the area along/ahead of the surface front. Shear will be decent (40kts or so), but forcing and SBCAPE (only ~ 100 J/KG) will be very spotty and weak. Some isolated to scattered strong storms may not be out of the question, but with forcing so weak along the front, confidence is extremely low even with strong storm development.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 542 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

MVFR to brief IFR clouds will continue to move through the terminals through around 18Z. After 18Z, ceilings will return to VFR for the remainder of the day. Tonight, another low MVFR to IFR cloud deck will move in after 06Z and remain through the TAF period at both terminals.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.