textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

- There is a low chance of few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms Friday evening into early Saturday morning, mainly in northwest Alabama. Gusty to locally damaging winds and lightning are the main threats.

- We are monitoring a low chance of severe storms next Monday, mainly in the evening and overnight.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Friday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Upper level ridging continues to hold strong and is very amplified over the eastern CONUS tonight. A very strong upper low has been contained and is spinning west of this feature over southwestern Canada. This upper ridging is concentrating forcing, instability, and shear ahead of a very slow moving pre-frontal trough axis that extends from western Minnesota SSW into eastern Kansas and central Texas. This tragically is producing a severe weather outbreak over the central and northern Plains.

Closer to home, due to the strong upper ridging in place, mainly clear skies and light winds are being reported. This should continue with some increase in mid-level cloud cover, especially over NW Alabama towards daybreak. These thin clouds and light winds should allow for fairly good radiational cooling conditions again tonight. With primarily light SSW to southerly flow expected much of the overnight hours, dewpoints will climb, but likely not as much as ensemble guidance is suggesting. Lowered minimum temperatures from ensemble into the mid to upper 50s in most areas with a few lows around 60 degrees in far NW AL. Some very isolated fog could occur in the valley areas of NE AL and towards Lewis Smith lake towards sunrise on Friday.

Guidance still shows the pre-frontal trough axis currently producing severe convection over the Central and northern Plains being substantially slowed eastward during the day on Friday. Though it may push into northern Arkansas and souther Indiana in the morning hours, the amplitude of the upper ridge over the Ohio Valley keeps it from moving much further east in most guidance until around 5 to 7 PM. Though during that timeframe, most guidance mainly keeps convection and precipitation more over western Tennessee southwest into eastern Arkansas and western Mississippi.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The amplitude/strength of the upper ridge will likely push any convection into northwest Alabama at the earliest between 7 PM and 10 PM. Shear still looks very weak in the afternoon and even into the evening hours. Confidence in severe storms Friday afternoon and evening has dropped with current guidance updates this evening. NW Alabama is still outlooked for a low risk of strong to marginally severe storms. Would not be surprised in later issuances if that is dropped to general thunderstorm risk though. Still expecting any low threat of stronger to marginally severe storms to remain primarily in western portions of NW AL and likely be between 7 PM and 9 PM.

An area of rain and elevated thunderstorms will continue to push southeast into northern Alabama tonight into early Saturday morning. Around one half of an inch with maybe some locally higher amounts close to 1 inch look possible.

Several sets of guidance show the trough axis pushing southeast into NW GA stretching SW into central Alabama between 10 AM and 1 PM. Surface winds in several soundings as far south as the Cullman county area show WNW to NW winds between 18Z and 21Z. So, although shear does increase, thinking subsidence behind the trough axis will keep severe storms from forming, especially with upper level ridging amplifying again over it. That being said, some light rain could linger into the afternoon hours.

The upper ridge shifts east again Saturday night into Sunday while continuing to amplify. This should keep the Tennessee Valley dry through the day on Sunday. Lows Sunday morning should drop a bit back into the mid to upper 50s, with some slightly drier air moving into the area.

With strong ridging aloft though building over the area and 925 mb temperatures rebounding to around 20 degrees again during the day on Sunday, highs should push back into the 80 to 85 degree range. Guidance shows the strong upper low that was rotating over southwestern Canada pushing northeast in response to the amplifying upper ridge over the southeast.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

By Sunday night into Monday, the parent upper low continues to move further northeast into central Canada. As the same time, a secondary low forms over the eastern Rockies and moves northeast into the northern Plains area. Cyclogenesis occurs and a frontal boundary forms stretching from the upper low through Missouri into Arkansas. This will likely be another round of convective activity in those areas, possible strong to severe. Though the amplified upper ridge does shift east during the day on Monday, it is still very amplified over the eastern seaboard into the Carolinas. This will slow the progression of the frontal boundary eastward. However, a strengthening low level jet will occur ahead of it. This does produce a stronger area of shear that moves into northwestern Alabama later that evening ahead of the front. Mid- level lapse rates are very steep late in the afternoon into the evening hours in NW AL. Helicity is fairly strong as well, but wet-bulb zero heights are fairly high. The newest guidance shows a very strong cap developing around 700 mb. This would limit severe potential, despite the other parameters. However, likely there will still be enough elevated instability (~ 1000 J/KG) for the potential for some large hail to develop. Damaging winds look a bit less likely given the strong cap in place though. Not sure how far east this threat will extend, as we lose much of the surface based instability between 10 PM and 1 AM.

The upper ridge really shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, as the surface front slow to a crawl just northwest of the area. This may produce a more active period of thunderstorm activity towards the middle and end of next week across the Tennessee Valley into central AL and GA.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1159 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

VFR conditions and light winds expected to continue overnight. Winds will increase with gusts around 15 knots tomorrow afternoon ahead of a decaying MCS off to the NW. Latest CAMs have showers and thunderstorms along the aforementioned system arriving from west to east between 22z at MSL and 00z at HSV. Low confidence in timing and if these storms occur, therefore left IFR cigs due to TSRA in a PROB 30 group. Returning to VFR by tomorrow night with light winds.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.