textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and potentially a storm or two south of the Tennessee River during the day today.

- After a brief period of dry weather late tonight into Saturday morning, additional rounds of rain and storms are then forecast with medium to high (60-90%) chances Sunday through Monday night.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 222 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

The cold front has progressed through north Alabama and is now moving over central Alabama. Low chances (10-20%) of showers continue for the next few hours, but mainly for Cullman County. Otherwise, no significant changes were needed for the forecast tonight.

Previous Discussion:

A surface cold front is currently progressing over North Alabama and is slated to move south of the area later this evening. The lower cloud deck is therefore expected to begin to thin from north to south over the next handful of hours as drier air is filtered into the region. Brief high pressure will then build into the Lower Ohio and Tennessee valleys tonight and into Saturday. As for any rain chances, locations along and north of the Tennessee River will remain dry. As the front moves towards the southern portion of our county warning area this afternoon, there exists a low chance (10-20%) of a few showers and perhaps a storm. While instability will be sufficient, bulk shear values are not large enough to support a threat for strong to severe storms. Chances of showers/storms then wanes this evening as the front moves farther south. No rain is forecast overnight, but clouds will increase tonight into early Saturday. This will likely hinder most fog development, but some instances of patchy fog may still occur in sheltered areas and near bodies of water. Expect highs today to be mild, in the lower to mid 80s, with lows tonight in the 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday Night) Issued at 1040 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Even with surface high pressure over the region to start the day Saturday, an upper shortwave is shown by guidance to make its way over the Southeast during the day. A series of more substantial shortwaves then begins to ripple across the eastern CONUS for Sunday into early next week. In addition, at the surface, the front mentioned in the Near Term section is shown to shift back north over the Tennessee Valley as a warm front Saturday evening through Sunday. Then, another cold front is slated to approach the Southeast late Sunday into Monday as a low pressure system swings over the Midwest and upper Ohio Valley regions. Model PWATs begin to increase once again on Saturday, with values generally between 1.5-1.8 inches or so. By Sunday, PWATs increase to 1.7 inches up to around 2 inches in some spots.

What this means for sensible weather for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee this weekend is low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and storms Saturday into Saturday evening, especially for the southwestern portion of our area as the warm front pushes north/northeast. Most guidance suggests that, even with sufficient instability, bulk shear will generally be between 10-20 knots. Therefore, at this time, not anticipating any strong to severe storms with this activity. Even higher shower and storm chances (60-80%) will then round out the weekend. Even with enough instability as well as decent lapse rates (about 6-7 degC/km or so), bulk shear still looks to be insufficient, resulting in very low confidence in any strong to severe storms on Sunday as well. However, the caveat will be the potential for an incoming MCS late Sunday into Monday that is shown by some model guidance. This activity, should it hold together, would bring the potential for gusty to damaging winds during this time. Trends will be monitored, but SPC does not currently have north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee outlooked in a risk of severe storms this weekend.

As for temperatures, highs will generally remain in the 80s through the weekend, with slightly cooler temperatures in the higher terrain of northeast Alabama. Meanwhile, lows are forecast to warm into the lower to mid 70s by Sunday night due to increasing moisture.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A high coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday and into Monday night as a surface low ejects northeastward off the coast of New England and a trailing cold front slips slowly southeastward. Although multiple rounds of convection may ultimately have an impact on instability, forecast soundings indicate a favorable combination of high CAPE and sufficiently strong low/mid-level flow that would be conducive for organized/severe thunderstorms during this timeframe. As for the remainder of the period, there are subtle differences within the suite of guidance regarding how far south the cold front (and a reinforcing surge of drier continental air in its wake) will push before eventually stalling. Due to this uncertainty, we will maintain POPs in the 20-40% range (highest during the afternoon). Fortunately, it appears as if the storm environment for the rest of the week will feature lighter low/mid- level flow and shear (reducing the risk for organized convection). However, lapse rates aloft will remain steep in the west- northwest flow regime, and high CAPE may still yield a risk for locally damaging downburst winds on a daily basis. Temperatures will fluctuate very little throughout the extended period, with highs in the l-m 80s and lows in the m-u 60s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1210 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

VFR conditions have returned to both terminals early this afternoon as cloud cover has thinned out. Expecting VFR CIGs to largely persist through Saturday morning. The main question overnight is regarding the potential for patchy fog since this is hinted at by some model guidance. Although winds will be calm, confidence in the occurrence of fog is low due to increasing cloud cover late tonight. Therefore, left fog out of the TAFs for now, but this will be reassessed with future updates. Otherwise, expect light, mainly southerly flow by Saturday morning. A few showers (20-40%) may also impact the MSL terminal by mid-morning Saturday as a warm front moves into the region.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.