textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1003 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

- Low chance of severe storms from Saturday night into Sunday morning with gusty winds and heavy rainfall being the main threat.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Under ample sunshine and subsidence from high pressure, afternoon highs have warmed into the high 70s to low 80s. The mild conditions will continue through the remainder of the day and give way to a cool night. While models show winds remaining between 4-8 KTs, winds have been lower than forecast all day today. Thus previous thoughts of not having to deal with fog tonight are less certain now. With clear skies present overnight, any locations that see calm winds will be favorable for both radiational cooling and at least patchy fog formation. Current forecast has lows in the mid to high 50s. Dew points look to bottom out in the low 50s providing reasonable lowest overnight temperatures should winds calm overnight.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1003 AM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

Mild conditions will continue through the short term forecast as we remain under high pressure influence. The mid level ridge will progress east and compress over the SE as it becomes mushed between a building low pressure system to our west and a departing low pressure system to our east. This will promote clear skies and warm days with temps in the mid 80s. By Friday we will find ourself on the western edge of the ridge inviting SE flow back into the TN Valley. This will create a weak moisture conveyor bringing Gulf moisture into the TN Valley through Friday and into Saturday along and ahead of an approaching cold front. Dew points look to return to the low 60s with PWATS near 1.3-1.5" (between the 75 and 90th percentile for BMX sounding climatology). Despite the increased moisture conditions will remain pleasant on Saturday with winds likely being the only indicator of an approaching front. As the front approaches and the pressure gradient tightens, gradient winds look to increase slightly through the day on Saturday with gusts near 20 MPH. As we head into the late afternoon and evening, cloud cover will likely increase ahead of the front. High rain chances and the potential for some strong to severe storms will arrive overnight with the details discussed below in the long term. We will work on refining the details regarding our severe and flooding risk as the period moves into HIRES model coverage over the next 24 hours.

LONG TERM

(Saturday Night through Tuesday) Issued at 953 PM CDT Tue Oct 14 2025

Our primary concern through the long term period will be a longwave trough axis and subsequent cold front pushing eastward into the Tennessee Valley on Sunday. Ahead of this frontal boundary, medium to high chances of showers and thunderstorms will be possible as an influx of moisture moves in with the assistance of southerly flow due to a sfc high pressure system east of the TN Valley. Models continue to show limited instability, however, sufficient shear for some potential strong thunderstorm development. While severe weather is not forecast at this time, storms will need to be monitored for potentially gusty winds as well as heavy rainfall. PWATs are forecast to be in the 1.7-1.9" range, which is above the 90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology. Heavy rainfall will likely cause ponding of water in areas of poor drainage/on roadways. Be sure to use caution if driving Saturday night. Storm total rainfall amounts are currently forecast to be 1-1.5" throughout the area on Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Sfc high pressure is forecast to push in behind the cold front, forcing dry conditions to return to the Tennessee Valley early next week. Highs behind the cold front (Sunday through mid week) are forecast to reach the low to mid 70s with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to 50s. This is considered more seasonally normal for this time of year.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 538 PM CDT Wed Oct 15 2025

VFR conditions with clear skies and light northeasterly winds are forecast to persist through the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.