textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 842 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

- Low to medium chances of rain beginning late tonight, continuing periodically through Tuesday.

- Unseasonably mild conditions are expected Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, with highs rising into the 60s and 70s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 842 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The surface map this morning indicates a high pressure ridge along the mid Atlantic through the FL panhandle and a cold front dropping southeast through the Central Plains and Upper Midwest. A clear sky was in place over the Southeast. Southerly flow was increasing moisture through TX into LA AR where low clouds were spreading northeast. For the rest of today, a sunny sky is anticipated with highs in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tonight, the cold front will drop southeast through the OH and TN valleys, including the local area. The moisture streaming northeast along and anafrontally as the front drops southeast will bring low clouds and low rain chances after Midnight. Lows will drop into the upper 30s east and lower 40s west.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 842 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

The cold front will drop southeast into central MS, AL and north GA by mid Sunday morning. Residual light rain will sink south and a gradual clearing will take place through the day. Only slightly cooler temperatures are expected with highs still reaching the middle to upper 50s followed by lows in the middle to upper 30s. The surface high and 8h ridge shift east on Monday allowing a rapid return to south-southwest flow. This introduces warm advection and shallow isentropic ascent across the middle and lower MS valley into the western TN and OH valleys Monday into Monday night, also aided by a transient shortwave in the 7-5h flow. Low chances of rain will enter northwest AL as a result by Monday afternoon. Despite warm advection, cloud cover will keep highs in the 50s. Dew points will rise into the lower to middle 40s in northwest AL, but remain in the upper 20s to lower 30s east of I-65 during the day Monday.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1029 PM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

At the beginning of the long term portion of the forecast, an expansive sub-tropical ridge will likely stretch from the Southern Plains across the Gulf and into the northern Caribbean. Meanwhile, a deepening trough in the NE Pac will lead to a downstream quasi- zonal flow pattern across much of the CONUS. Maintenance of this pattern will result in deepening and strengthening of the sub- tropical flow from the eastern Pac, and further northward expansion of the ridge across much of the CONUS during this period. The polar front, which is expected to be hugging the northern tier of states on Monday Night/Tuesday will tend to remain stationary, or perhaps even retreat farther northward into southern Canada during the period. The result will be a climatologically very mild pattern developing across large portions of the CONUS and here in the TN Valley. Perusing the broader ensemble suite suggests relatively good run-to-run consistency in some of the model details during the period. If anything, the broader suite does hint at a slight increase in expected temps in recent model runs during the Christmas Eve and Christmas Day forecasts, which right now, contain highs largely in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Overall, there is generally good agreement in the broad scale pattern expectations, and fairly minor differences in the ensemble clusters. All of this is leading to a relatively high confidence forecast at this time for the holiday period. Thus, in the annual battle royale between the Cold and Heat Mizers and who will hold influence over Christmas weather, the odds are certainly in favor of the Heat Mizer this Christmas. In fact, his warm dominion may spread far into the Midwest.

Otherwise, chances for light rain will increase a little overnight Monday and continue on Tuesday/Tuesday Night as isentropic lift and moisture advection occur ahead of a weak Pacific front. However, due to uncertainty in timing and where strongest ascent and moisture advection may occur in the region, POPs were kept in chance category. Otherwise, conditions for Christmas at this time look to be dry and slightly breezy.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 500 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

VFR conditions will continue at the terminals through this evening. Clear skies and breezy conditions will also comprise the day today, with sustained southerly winds around 10 knots and gusts up to 20 knots. By this evening, winds will diminish and clouds will increase as a cold front approaches the local area. Expecting decreasing CIGs to MVFR around 6-8Z tonight for both TAF sites. Low to medium chances of rain will return late tonight for north Alabama as well. Lastly, another concern will be LLWS (from the southwest at 35 knots) from 0-4Z, mainly for MSL.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.