textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Saturday, due to afternoon heat index values of 105-109F.

- Strong-severe thunderstorms will impact portions of the region once again today (mainly from 2 PM into the early evening hours). These will feature a risk for locally damaging downburst winds, small hail, and excessive lightning. Slow storm motions will also lead to a higher risk for excessive rainfall and flash flooding (compared to previous days).

- After a slightly lower coverage of precipitation on Saturday, chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms will increase to 40-60% from Sunday-Wednesday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 246 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Pulse strong to severe convection erupted at midday and has expanded across the region. The bulk of it for our forecast area has been east of Highway 231, north of the TN River, and in far northwest AL. Several reports of trees being knocked down have been received along with small hail and very heavy downpours. This will persist into early evening at this point. The stabilizing effect of the outflows may limit the severity of storms as we move into the early evening.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Most guidance develops a deepening trough axis over Missouri on Saturday. This should help to concentrate low level moisture convergence to our NNW over SE Missouri into the Ohio Valley area. Afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity should be concentrated in those areas as well as a result. Given instability shown in models though, cannot rule out some low chances (20-30%) of showers or thunderstorms in the afternoon into the early evening hours. Though the higher of those chances will likely be closer to NW Alabama.

The upper ridge to our ENE really weakens (central pressure drops from 594 mb to 591 mb) on Saturday into early next week. This will likely keep high temperatures on Saturday lower, more in the lower to mid 90s. However, with focusing of higher dewpoints in the late afternoon hours east of the upper trough axis heat index in reality may be able to climb over 105 degrees.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 1117 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Much higher precipitation chances and more cloud cover associated with the trough axis as it moves into Mississippi and Alabama is expected Saturday night into early next week. Shear continues to remain weak in guidance so far and thermodynamic properties become more saturated throughout forecast soundings. So, not looking like severe storms will be in the cards during that period. However, stronger and more consistent forcing along with a very saturated profile/good instability will be in place for thunderstorms to tap into. Highs will continue to be cooler (88-93) due to cloud cover and precipitation. Morning lows will not change much remaining in the lower 70s. Shower and thunderstorm chances should decrease to between 20-40% at night. A slightly drier airmass in the wake of the ejecting shortwave trough (to our north) may lead to a lower coverage of showers and storms beginning Thursday. The main storm impacts at this point appear to be gusty winds, lightning and heavy rainfall that could lead to instances of flash flooding.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 719 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Pockets of lgt RA (remnants of afternoon convection) will persist across northern AL/southern TN thru 2Z before dissipating, and with rain-cooled air now in place across the entire region, redevelopment of TSRA appears unlikely thru sunrise. As an overcast layer of debris clouds begins to disperse ~4Z, lgt/vrbl- calm flow and ground moisture from rainfall earlier today will support development of patchy BR/FG early Saturday morning (warranting a TEMPO group for MVFR vsby reductions btwn 8-12Z). At this point, coverage of SHRA/TSRA tomorrow appears as if it will be greatest to the north/west of our forecast area, and we will not mention convection in the TAFs. However, few-sct Cu can be expected throughout the day, beneath a sct layer of Ci.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.