textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

- A low pressure system will pass through the Tennessee Valley tonight into Sunday, bringing very high chances for showers and a few general thunderstorms. Storm total rainfall of 0.5" to 1" is forecast.

- Warm and dry conditions are forecast Monday through Thursday as highs return to the 60s and 70s.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 220 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Mid to high level clouds will continue to pass through the region this afternoon ahead of an approaching low pressure system. A few light returns were still noted on radar, but given ceilings of over 10 kft, still think this is likely virga (with perhaps a few sprinkles). This will change later this evening as low-medium (20-50%) chances for rain showers will return to the forecast thanks to the warm air advection and isentropic lift ahead of the approaching trough. PoPs will increase substantially late this evening and through the overnight hours (80-100%) ahead of and along the front as the parent trough pivots into the lower Mississippi Valley. In addition to the widespread showers, low chances for a few rumbles of thunder remain in the forecast (thanks to very meager elevated CAPE noted on model soundings). However, the thunderstorm threat will largely remain well south of the area with moderate rain showers occurring across most of the Tennessee Valley. Thanks to the dense cloud cover and precipitation chances, temperatures won't drop off much after sunset, with lows in the upper 40s to low/mid 50s being common.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday night) Issued at 1029 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

The passage of the system will continue Sunday morning, with very high chances through 15-16z. A dry slot will pass through the region during the late morning/early afternoon temporarily lowering PoPs during the middle of the day -- before wrap around moisture and additional showers pass across the region during the mid/late afternoon on Sunday. These rain showers will quickly taper off by the evening hours from west to east as drier air finally moves into the area in wake of the front. A stout inversion will likely keep clouds in place well into the morning hours before they dissipate quickly later in the day. The mostly sunny conditions that develop later in the day on Monday will allow highs to return to the mid to upper 60s. Given the mostly clear and calm conditions Monday night (combined with the moist boundary layer from the earlier rainfall), patchy fog may be in the cards.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 805 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

For much of the extended period, troughing will be in place off of the west coast, while troughing along the east coast on Tuesday flattens and moves further off-shore. This will result in a general zonal flow across much of the CONUS into the latter portion of next week. At the surface, high pressure over the Mid Atlantic region should build southward along the SE coast. Therefore, dry conditions and a warmer trend is forecast across the Tennessee Valley.

Under partly cloudy skies, mild to warm conditions are forecast across the area, as high temperatures Tuesday rise into the upper 60s and lower 70s. The weak troughing feature will gradually move eastward with a zonal flow continuing. The fast flowing polar jet (with winds near the tropopause at or above 130kt from southern CA to south of the Great Lakes) will bring more upper level moisture across the southern CONUS. This will result in an increase in clouds as we go through the mid to latter portion of the week. Despite the clouds, decent lower-level warm air advection will make for a warmer mid and late week. After low temperatures in the low/mid 50s Tue night, highs on Wednesday should rise into the mid 70s with more clouds than sun. Similar conditions are expected for Wed night/Thu with lows in the mid 50s and highs again in the mid 70s.

More lower level moisture arriving from northeast Pacific basin, will bring lower end chances of showers across the area Friday. With the clouds and rain chances, high temperatures to close out the work week should be a tad cooler, in the lower 70s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 445 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through around midnight. During the early morning hours, low clouds and steady rain will move in prompting MVFR ceilings and visibilities through the remainder of the TAF period. Conditions may drop briefly down to LIFR during periods of heaviest showers early tomorrow morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.