textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Medium chances of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of strong to severe storms and a slight risk of excessive rainfall/flooding on Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Thursday) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Southwesterly winds will remain elevated overnight with gusts up to 15kts. This will continue to pull tropical moisture into the region and push in low cloud ceilings. This will keep overnight lows will be mild in lower 70s.

Tropical Storm Arthur is degenerating this evening as it sits over the northeast TX coast. Models continue to track what is left of it on a southerly route into central MS and central AL tomorrow. This should keep most major impacts south of here, however what we could see is conditional on a few factors. With multiple models keeping the track farther south, this has increased confidence that the core of the rainfall and any strong/severe storms will occur in central and southern AL. However, we will need to keep an eye on the track for any changes and monitor where the bands move into.

If the track shifts northward, it could bring in heavier bands of showers and thunderstorms which could increase flooding and severe chances. Right now, the storm total rainfall amounts from Thursday through Friday is 0.5" to 1.5" in a north to south gradient, with much higher rainfall amounts south of here. Regardless, any shower/storm will produce heavy rainfall with dewpoints in the lower 70s and PWATS push just over 2" which is 99th percentile for this time of year. And that can lead to nuisance flooding or flash flooding, especially if any cells or bands train over the same locations. Forecast soundings show enough shear and instability to support a low severe threat with strong to damaging winds. For this, SPC has placed us in a Marginal Risk (1/5). Can't rule out the possibility of a weak tropical tornado though with cell interactions and just how low the ceiling heights will be.

Showers and thunderstorms will return during the morning commute through the early afternoon hours. Models are suggesting the remnants sliding eastward will bring a break in activity for NW AL in the early afternoon, north central and portions of Southern Middle TN, late afternoon and NE AL by the evening hours. Behind this, there can still be low chances (20-30%) of showers/storms through the night. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s. Even though the remnants of Arthur will be pushed out by Thursday night, there is still more to talk about, see Short Term below.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The forecast isn't done after the remnants of Arthur gets out of here, as there is a cold front on our doorstep.

Luckily, the cold front has been trending on the later side, letting the remnants of Arthur slip on by before it arrives Friday morning. Consensus is that it will start to push into the TN Valley Friday morning around sunrise, and push south of us after lunch. It is uncertain on how much convection it will develop. There will be decent bulk shear available, but instability really decreases and moisture content decreases (dewpoints, PWATs) as well. Daytime highs will reach the low to mid 80s, and lows will be several degrees cooler in the low to mid 60s.

We'll really see some drier air filter in on Saturday, allowing for a decrease in cloud cover. However, we can't fully escape the rain though as a disturbance sliding through will provide us with low chances (20% NE AL/S Mid TN - 30% elsewhere) of showers and thunderstorms through the day and into Saturday night. Highs may be in the mid to upper 80s but the dewpoints will be lower than previous days.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Zonal flow will largely persist through much of the long term period, with several ripples of shortwaves moving along the flow during this time. However, the pattern looks to change a bit by midweek, with northwest flow taking hold. At the surface, a remnant boundary will either dissipate or move north of the region on Sunday. Another cold front is then shown to approach the Southeast on Monday, with FROPA through north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee sometime between Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure then builds down into the Tennessee Valley quickly behind the front for midweek.

Overall, expect daily chances of showers and storms, but with higher chances Sunday and Monday (40-80%) and lower chances Tuesday and Wednesday (20-40%). While thunderstorm development is supported due to sufficient instability and bulk shear, guidance suggests midlevel lapse rates mainly between 5-6.5 degC/km. Therefore, confidence is low in any strong to severe storm potential at this point. However, with PWATs between 1.7-2.1 inches Sunday and Monday, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers and bring the threat of heavy rainfall and at least minor flooding (especially with saturated antecedent conditions). Moisture gradually decreases from Tuesday into Wednesday, with a more summertime-like pattern then setting up (diurnal showers/storms).

As for temperatures, highs will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s Sunday through Wednesday. But, lows will gradually decrease from the lower 70s Sunday night to the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday night thanks to FROPA and decreasing moisture.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

MVFR to IFR stratus has begun to overspread the region tonight and is soon expected to prevail at both terminals. This is a few hours earlier than expected, but an approaching tropical system has resulted in increasing moisture and cloud cover across much of the Southeast. Rain chances will increase this morning as the system nears and will bring widespread showers and storms to the area this morning and afternoon. Reductions to MVFR or IFR conditions are likely during heavier showers and low to medium chances for rain will continue through the end of the TAF period. S to Sw winds will gust up to 20kts at times, especially during the daylight hours. Amendments may be needed as the lower stratus deck evolves this morning and rain begins to move in.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.