textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

- There is a low chance of a severe thunderstorm or two on Friday morning into the afternoon hours. The primary hazard is gusty winds and a very low chance of a tornado.

- Beneficial rainfall is expected over the next 7 days with an additional 2-4 inches over this period for most areas. There is a low chance of brief excessive rainfall and minor flooding during this stretch.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Tonight and Friday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Today's rainfall totals across the TN Valley has varied, but range from 1-4" with the highest totals seen east of I-65. With rises on creeks and streams from all the rainfall, especially with more rainfall on the way overnight, if you come across water on a roadway or walkway, turn around, don't drown. Flood waters are hard to see at night.

The next shortwave will lift up through MS and AL around midnight and bring the next wave of showers and thunderstorms to the forecast area by Friday morning. This batch of showers and storms will slide northeast through the TN Valley Friday morning into the afternoon hours. A few storms can become strong to severe roughly between the 9am to 4pm timeframe. Main hazards with these storms will be heavy rainfall, gusty to damaging winds and a tornado. PWATS will remain high, just below 2", but what we will have tomorrow that we didn't have today is the low and mid level shear. With this, SPC has us in a 2% tornado risk for tomorrow. Forecast soundings also show surface based instability reaching over 1,000 J/kg. Daytime highs will reach mainly the upper 70s to 80 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

Yet another round of rainfall is expected Friday night into Saturday with another wave lifting through the TN Valley as we remain stuck in a moisture rich southwesterly flow. These will be capable of producing heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning. Not expecting severe storms, and we are not in a convective outlook by SPC for Saturday. Lighter coverage of showers is expected Saturday evening (20-40%) but the roller coaster will persist with higher POP chances (50-80%) returning on Sunday. With the persistent rounds of rainfall, the potential for flooding will be closely monitored. WPC has at least some part of the forecast area in a Marginal ERO through Saturday morning, and again on Sunday. Highs this holiday weekend will be in the lower 80s with sticky dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 950 PM CDT Thu May 21 2026

The relief from the roller coaster of showers and thunderstorms you are looking for won't be found in the Long Term. We will be in a stagnate pattern that will keep medium to high rain chances in through mid week next week. As of right now, no severe weather is expected during this time. With the persistent rounds of rainfall, the potential for flooding will be closely monitored. WPC has at least some part of the forecast area in a Marginal ERO through Tuesday. From a drought perspective, we really needed the rain, but I think we are all ready for the return of some sunshine. High and low temperatures won't fluctuate much, with highs in the lower 80s, and lows in the low to mid 60s throughout the Long Term.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Fri May 22 2026

Light to moderate rain was ongoing at issuance for areas along and east of I-65. Anticipating on again and off again showers over the next few hours, with chances and coverage increasing through dawn/mid-morning. VFR conditions remain at the moment, but these are forecast to deteriorate to MVFR within the next hour or two and then to IFR for some locations through the early morning hours. Instances of LIFR are also probable later this morning, especially for areas that see more rainfall over the next handful of hours. Shower and storm chances then persist through the end of the TAF period, with low CIGs and VIS anticipated (especially in the heavier showers/storms). In addition, light and variable winds will become more southerly and increase to around 10 knots by this afternoon. Gust to between 15-20 knots are also expected during this time. Winds will then gradually slacken through the evening hours.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.