textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

- There is a low to medium chance of showers and thunderstorms early this morning.

- There is a low to medium risk of severe thunderstorms Wednesday evening into early Thursday.

- Cooler conditions return Thursday, but temperatures should warm as we go into the weekend before the next cold front arrives on Sunday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 240 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

At this hour, there are a few showers on radar across the TN Valley and more continue to pop up thanks to a passing shortwave just to our north. Greatest coverage will be east of a line from Athens to Guntersville. There is elevated instability to tap into and decent shear, so storms will be monitored as a few could become strong. With most of us getting a decent rainfall yesterday (mainly 1-2" with isolated 3"), we will monitor storms for heavy rainfall that could cause flooding concerns. Coverage will wean with sunrise and dry conditions will persist through lunch. High res models are not very adventurous with low chance (20%) of thunderstorms this afternoon when there is diurnal heating with deep moisture in place. Despite the cloud cover, WAA from winds 5-10 mph and gusts 15 mph will push daytime highs to a record of 80 degrees at KHSV.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Isolated showers/storms cannot be ruled out mainly near the AL/TN border Tue evening. Otherwise a last mild night for a few days, with lows in the low/mid 60s. Wed will be the last warm day for a few days with highs rising from the mid 70s to near 80.

A cutoff upper low over the western Baja coast will continue moving to the NE, merging with the main westerly flow in the overnight into Tuesday, then become part of a progressive trough that should move in a west to east manner across the central and eastern CONUS Wed/Thu. The trough will take on a neutral tilt as it sweeps east of the Mississippi Valley. As it's upper level system traverses the southern Rockies, it will help a surface low form east of the Front Range Tue. This and a developing primary surface low over the Great Lakes will bring numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms across the Tennessee Valley beginning late Wed afternoon.

This timeframe is just getting to the end of the mesoscale forecast model range. The FV3 that goes out to Thursday morning shows the line weakening as it progresses in a NW-SE manner across the area. The other models were showing similar ideas, with convection reaching NW Alabama the latter half of Wed afternoon, and continuing to the SE into the evening and overnight. Shower activity should end from NW to SE in the late night and Thursday morning. The convection poised to move across the area appears will be in a Quasi-Linear Convective System mode. Thus the main threats appear to be damaging wind gusts. Tornadoes cannot be ruled out in these situations. A more northern displacement of the parent low over the Great Lakes will help to minimize the tornado threat somewhat. Very heavy rainfall will also accompany this line of convection. Given the recent heavy rainfall much of the area recently experienced from this evenings convection, there will be a heightened risk of flash flooding late Wed night into Thu morning.

As alluded to above, a cooler change is on the way with the passage of this next system. With the cold front passing in the overnight, colder air west of it will result in low temperatures by daybreak Thu dropping into low/mid 40s, a good 20-25 degrees colder than the previous night! The highs later Thu will be a reality check as they struggle into the mid 50s, or around 20 degrees colder than Wed. A steady northerly wind of 10-20 mph, stronger in the morning will add to the chill.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 1055 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Light winds and clear skies should allow temperatures to drop into the 35 to 40 degree range. Some areas of frost could occur. Though northwest flow will weaken some on Friday, cold air advection will still help to keep highs in the lower to upper 60s.

This flow becomes more zonal Friday night into Saturday, but the Tennessee Valley should remain dry. Boundary layer flow will become more southerly, allowing better moisture advection into the area. This should keep overnight lows a bit warmer, only dropping into the lower to mid 40s primarily. With sunny skies on Saturday, high temperatures should be warmer topping off in the lower to mid 70s again courtesy of the evolving zonal flow aloft.

By Saturday night, another longwave trough digs southeast from the northwestern CONUS. Upper level flow becomes more southwesterly ahead of a developing front over the central Great Lakes region southwest into northeastern Texas. More significant low level moisture and warm air advection sets up over the southeast in response. Low temperatures will continue to warm only dropping into the lower to mid 50s.

Not much cloud cover expected through Sunday morning ahead of this front over northern Alabama. Though cloud cover will increase significantly Sunday afternoon. Despite cloud cover strengthening low level warm air advection ahead of the approaching cold front should allow highs to climb back into the 75 to 80 degree range.

Most guidance develops strong forcing ahead of the front, but the deepest forcing may be concentrated over northern Tennessee into the Ohio Valley Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Either way, at least scattered showers and thunderstorm activity ahead of it seems like a good bet further south into northern AL. Shear would be ample for organized thunderstorm development. Ensemble does show 500 J/KG or less of SBCAPE with 200-300 m2/s2 helicity over the area during the late afternoon/very early evening hours. So we may have another low end strong to severe thunderstorm setup with this system. Highs with morning sunshine may climb into the mid to upper 70s despite afternoon cloud cover.

Ensemble guidance is suggesting another shot of colder air pushing back into the area behind this system. Given how far out this system is, this could change at we get closer to that timeframe. Highs may drop back into the 50s and 60s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

There may be a stray light shower or two out there this morning, but no expected impact beyond the MVFR CIGs that will linger through late morning. There is a low end chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, but have low confidence in coverage and direct impact to terminals so kept it out of this TAF package. Trends will be monitored and amendments made if necessary. Otherwise, southerly winds will gust ~15kts and MVFR CIGS will return near the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.