textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 926 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

- Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms continue Sunday and Monday.

- A low chance of strong to severe storms on is forecast on Monday as a front moves through the region, with gusty winds, hail, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours the main threats.

- Drier and more mild conditions take hold Tuesday through Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Sunday) Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A few clusters of showers and storms are persisting along residual outflow boundaries this evening across the Tennessee Valley and will continue to do so through around Midnight. Thereafter, low chances of light rain showers will linger into the early morning hours. However, cloud cover will at least partially dissipate and given the very moist boundary layer and light winds, patchy fog and/or very low stratus may develop during the 09-13z window early Sunday morning. If it can develop, this fog may become locally dense and we'll need to watch observations closely overnight.

Any fog that does develop should dissipate quickly by mid-morning. The combination of an approaching trough and some some lingering convergence boundaries across the Tennessee Valley will result in medium chances (40-60%) of diurnally driven convection during the afternoon and evening hours. Given the still fairly modest shear profiles, the main threats with this activity will be locally heavy rainfall and frequent lightning. Sufficient heating will allow highs to reach the upper 70s to lower 80s once again in the afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

We remain in northwest flow aloft Sunday night into Monday as a mid/upper trough amplifies as it moves from the mid-Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley and Southern Appalachians. Upstream, guidance hints at an MCS developing across MO/AR and moving SE/ESE with the mean flow, eventually making it into the region sometime mid/late Monday morning. An additional line/cluster of storms may develop across the Mid South and move through the area during the afternoon/evening on Monday.

Hi-res guidance, in particular, has gotten a little more aggressive with some of the ingredients and we could potentially have an environment that would support strong to severe thunderstorms. The approaching mid/upper-level trough will increase bulk shear values across the region to around 30-40 kts. Meanwhile, thermodynamically, we'll be surface-based with some considerable instability (MLCAPE values potentially over 2000 J/kg), with very steep low-level lapse rates of 7.5-8.0 C/km. Model soundings do exhibit a good amount of dry air in the mid- levels (DCAPE around 1000 J/kg), which would support the potential for localized strong, damaging winds -- to go along with hail and locally heavy rainfall (PWATs around 1.5"). Model soundings and hodographs favor very unidirectional northwest flow and this setup does not appear supportive of a tornado threat. SPC has the entire region outlooked in a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) of severe weather. The primary uncertainty is the still low confidence in where convection will form upstream and the exact track/motion it would take overnight. This will greatly impact our chances in the Tennessee Valley on Monday. Those with outdoor plans should pay attention to the forecast given the potential for strong/severe thunderstorms on Monday.

The aforementioned trough will bring a front through the area Monday evening, bringing an end to the storms and a cooler, drier air mass into the region for Tuesday. This will push highs back into the upper 70s to lower 80s and finally keep PoPs below 10 percent during the afternoon hours.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A strong area of high pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley mid to late week, promoting plenty of sunshine each day and dry, tranquil weather. As a result of ample sunshine each day, highs will reach the 80s, but lows will drop into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s in this drier air mass. The ridge will remain in place largely through the remainder of the week, with the next chance of rain likely arriving late next weekend.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

Low stratus will develop late tonight into early Sunday morning (with potentially some light fog as well), prompting MVFR conditions. Ceilings will lift back to low-end VFR conditions during the late morning into the afternoon. Have added a PROB30 during the 18-00z Sunday afternoon due to the potential for MVFR conditions from TSRA.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.