textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026 - Medium to high chances (50-95%) for showers and a few thunderstorms will return during the middle part of this week as another front moves through the region.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 405 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Showers from a system that impacted much of the area Sunday have moved NE of the region. The circulation rounding surface high pressure off of the Mid Atlantic coast was producing a SE flow of 5-15 mph across the greater Tennessee Valley. Despite the very heavy rain that some locations across the area received yesterday, fog that frequently occurs after a rain event so far has been mixed out by the wind and drier air filtering in. Some impressive amounts of rain fell yesterday, that should put a damper on the on-going drought much of the region is undergoing. The NW Alabama Regional Airport at Muscle Shoals measured 3.77", exceeding the old record of 2.93" last set in 1999. Other rainfall totals over NW Alabama and adjacent TN/MS ranged from 3-5", and 2-3" along the NW AL/TN border. Lesser amounts were recorded further to the south and east.

Another system which impacted the Great Basin and Intermountain West will moving to the NE across the central High Plains. High altitude clouds associated with it was moving across this area from the north. There was another deck of low/mid altitude clouds across this region. Sufficient high cloud cover could retard erosion of the clouds below, thus am expecting mostly cloudy skies today. Highs into the low/mid 70s looks reasonable given the SE flow and weak post system cold air advection. This next system will bring more rain to the Valley in the mid week.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Wednesday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

The main feature of interest within the short term period will be an upper level low and subsequent trough swinging eastward through the Plains on Tuesday, bringing a cold front towards the region. As this front enters the mid-Mississippi Valley, models show it slowing down with some shower/storm development ahead of it. This activity should slowly work its way into northern AL and southern middle TN Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning. Current model sounding profiles indicate the nocturnal arrival of this system will keep available instability very low and lapse rates capped around 5-6 C/km. Therefore, this continues to look like a primary threat of heavy rainfall as PWATs reach around 1.5-1.7" (90th percentile per BMX sounding climatology). While shear is parallel to our boundary (favorable for flash flood potential), storm speed and Corfidi upshear vectors are forecast to be 20-30 mph, which should limit the flash flood threat due to faster moving storms and decreased potential for training. Overall QPF for Tuesday through Thursday has decreased with this forecast package, bringing widespread 1-2" of rainfall with localized higher amounts up to 4". With this morning's rainfall in NW AL, we will be primarily concerned about that region due to antecedent conditions/saturated soils.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 933 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Extended range model guidance suggests that a weak low-level ridge will build northeastward into the local forecast area on Wednesday night and Thursday, in the wake of a departing surface trough and axis of rain/thunderstorms. This (along with unamplified/westerly flow aloft of 35-45 knots) will support dry conditions, with overnight lows falling into the l-m 50s Thursday morning, followed by afternoon highs in the l-m 70s. On Thursday night, large scale ascent will strengthen considerably as a mid-level wave digs east- southeastward into the TN Valley in the flow around an upper low across the Great Lakes. Although the tropospheric column will be far too dry to support any risk for precipitation, a minor increase in cloud cover aloft should accompany the passage of this system. At the surface, a reinforcing cold front will spread southeastward in conjunction with the shortwave trough, with light northerly winds in the low-levels (beneath NW flow aloft) expected to result in a continuation of dry weather from Friday-Saturday night. Early morning lows in the m30s-l40s can be expected on both Saturday/Sunday, with afternoon highs in the l-m 60s. Low chances for rain may return to parts of the region by Sunday afternoon, either as a result of a weakening clipper system diving into the Mid-MS Valley or a lower- latitude disturbance shifting eastward along the northwest Gulf Coast. However, due to vastly different model solutions at this time range, we will keep POPs in the 10-20% range.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning. VFR to MVFR conditions will continue, along with LLWS (during the early morning hours) due to strong SE flow at the 2000ft level. Sfc winds will remain from the ESE, with gusts of 15-20 kts expected throughout the forecast period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.