textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Low to medium chances of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River through Wednesday.

- Moderate HeatRisk on Wednesday across much of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, with heat indices between 95-100F forecast.

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday and Friday, with a low risk for severe storms on Thursday and a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 313 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

Increasing high clouds have hindered fog development so far this morning despite calm winds area wide and near 0 dewpoint depressions in some locations. We will continue to monitor a low chance for fog formation mainly in southern middle TN where cloud cover is lowest, but even in clear sky areas of TN we have seen very little fog formation as of this writing. Temps early this morning range from a comfortable 60-65 degrees and we will enjoy one more day of below normal temperatures before a return to southerly flow begins to advect a more tropical airmass to the area. No significant changes were needed during the early morning update.

Previous discussion: Upper level zonal flow continues over the Tennessee Valley through Tuesday. At the surface, high pressure persists over the lower Ohio Valley and Appalachians along with a stalled surface front to our south over central Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia. This will largely keep areas north of the Tennessee River dry, with low to medium (20-50%) chances of showers and storms south of the River. Although we can't rule out the potential of a strong storm, confidence is low in any severe weather occurring. While bulk shear values range between 30-35 knots Tuesday afternoon, mid-level lapse rates are unimpressive. Sufficient instability is also a question due to abundant cloud cover. Regardless, if you work outside or have outdoor activities, if you hear thunder or see a flash, seek shelter immediately!

Lastly, expect another mild day with highs topping out in the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. However, portions of far northwest Alabama (such as Florence/Muscle Shoals) may peak closer to the mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

The aforementioned pattern will persist into midweek, with low to medium chances (20-40%) of showers and storms mainly south of the Tennessee River. However, by Wednesday night into Thursday, the weather pattern starts to shift as a cold front approaches the region from the northwest and a tropical disturbance from the western Gulf traverses Lousiana into Mississippi and towards Alabama. There remains uncertainty in the development and trajectory of the tropical disturbance, as well as how quickly the cold front moves into the Tennessee Valley. These details will have a large effect on how much rain we receive later this week; however, rain chances increase to between 60-90% on Thursday and persist through Thursday night (and also into Friday - see more below). As for temperatures, expect highs in the mid to upper 80s with lows increasing to the lower to mid 70s by Wednesday night.

Heavy rainfall and flooding will become a concern Thursday (and into/through Friday as well, discussed more below). Model PWATs increase to between 1.8-2.0 inches or so by Thursday afternoon, which is right around or greater than the 90th percentile when compared with BMX Sounding Climatology. Therefore, these showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers and bring heavy downpours and high rainfall rates. With the ground still saturated form recent rainfall, this will increase the risk of flash flooding/flooding. This could lead to rises in local creeks, streams, and rivers as well (especially by the weekend). Overall, this is corroborated by the Weather Prediction Center who has highlighted all of southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama in a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall Thursday into Friday. Please check back for forecast updates and remember to Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roads!

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 1022 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Looks like we will end the work week with more rain. The question will be if the cold front has already arrived by now or if it will push in Friday morning. It will arrive to an environment with plenty of moisture in place with dewpoints in the lower 70s, and PWATs 1.9-2.1" which is in the 99th percentile for this time of year. The best shear will be displaced pretty far north of us, and the associated sfc low will be north of the Lower Great Lakes. So right now, the main concern with the showers and thunderstorms that develop along the cold front is heavy rainfall that could lead to flooding or flash flooding. WPC has already placed us in a Slight ERO for Friday. Regardless, with the rainfall that we receive this week, we will see rises in rivers, creeks and streams on Friday, with issues lasting into the weekend. This is also reflected in the NASA SPoRT Stream Heights model for some creeks and rivers in our forecast area. The forecast gets further complicated when asking the questions, at what pace does the cold front push through the TN Valley and at what trajectory does the left overs of a possible tropical system move into the region? If the cold front if able to get south of us pretty quick on Friday, it will keep the higher rainfall totals in central AL. If not, or if it stalls out over us, we will see higher rainfall totals, thus more flooding problems.

Post frontal high pressure will build in and provide rainfall relief for Saturday. This will be short-lived though, as low chances (30-40%) return on Sunday and Monday. This is due to a disturbance that scoots from the Lower MS Valley into the Southeast, then another system swings through the Midwest and pushes another cold front into the region.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

VFR conditions will persist through much of the TAF period before MVFR to IFR cigs move in around midnight tonight. Winds will remain light through the period with increasing cloud cover from south to north.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.