textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1054 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

- There is a low chance of few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms this evening mainly in northwest Alabama. Gusty to locally damaging winds and lightning are the main threats.

- We are monitoring a low chance of severe storms next Monday, mainly in the evening and overnight.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 302 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

A line of showers and thunderstorms from a decaying MCS continues to slowly push towards the TN Valley and currently extending from western TN into central MS. Ahead of this main line, a smaller line has popped up with isolated showers out ahead of it too. This new thinner line is expected to slide through the forecast area this afternoon/evening. Current radar trends estimate it will push into NW AL about 4pm but should move out of NE AL by 9-10pm. The old decaying MCS will slide more SSEward, following a theta e ridge and better instability, brushing the CWA. The main hazards for us will be lightning, and locally gusty to damaging winds. There will be a secondary redevelopment of showers with embedded thunder late tonight into early Saturday morning. This round will bring us much needed rainfall, no major hazards expected at this time.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1054 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Saturday morning we will see showers and embedded thunderstorms as a shortwave trough axis swings through the TN Valley. Once this moves through, there will be additional low chances throughout the afternoon. Not making it the washout, but more scattered peak heating, summer type coverage. Did lower POPs for Saturday afternoon into the evening hours as the NBM came in too high, not matching confidence in coverage and timing.

Ridging will build in Saturday night into Sunday but that will be short lived. This will keep POP chances low at 10-20%. Otherwise, we will be in the lower 80s once again under partly cloudy to mostly cloudy skies. Lows will be a tad cooler, ranging from the lower 50s in NE AL to mid/upper 50s elsewhere.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

By Sunday night into Monday, the parent upper low continues to move further northeast into central Canada. As the same time, a secondary low forms over the eastern Rockies and moves northeast into the northern Plains area. Cyclogenesis occurs and a frontal boundary forms stretching from the upper low through Missouri into Arkansas. This will likely be another round of convective activity in those areas, possible strong to severe. Though the amplified upper ridge does shift east during the day on Monday, it is still very amplified over the eastern seaboard into the Carolinas. This will slow the progression of the frontal boundary eastward. However, a strengthening low level jet will occur ahead of it. This does produce a stronger area of shear that moves into northwestern Alabama later that evening ahead of the front. Mid- level lapse rates are very steep late in the afternoon into the evening hours in NW AL. Helicity is fairly strong as well, but wet-bulb zero heights are fairly high. The newest guidance shows a very strong cap developing around 700 mb. This would limit severe potential, despite the other parameters. However, likely there will still be enough elevated instability (~ 1000 J/KG) for the potential for some large hail to develop. Damaging winds look a bit less likely given the strong cap in place though. Not sure how far east this threat will extend, as we lose much of the surface based instability between 10 PM and 1 AM.

The upper ridge really shifts eastward Monday night into Tuesday, as the surface front slow to a crawl just northwest of the area. This may produce a more active period of thunderstorm activity towards the middle and end of next week across the Tennessee Valley into central AL and GA.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 441 PM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Isolated to scattered -SHRA and perhaps a TSRA or two will move southeast through north AL and southern middle TN early this evening. Then, low to medium chances of mostly -SHRA are expected later tonight. Ceilings will drop below 010agl (IFR) by 09-10Z, then recover to 015-025agl (MVFR) by 17-18Z with low to medium chances of additional -SHRA and TSRA. Confidence in TSRA was too low to include in the TAFs for Saturday, but may be required in future updates.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.