textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

- Low chance of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River today.

- Medium chances of showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and Friday, with a low risk of strong to severe storms and a slight risk of excessive rainfall/flooding on Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

The first local impact from Tropical Storm Arthur can be seen in the skies this morning as a shallow cloud deck associated with the tropical low blankets much of the area. Today will act as a transition day as we move into a more active pattern for the remainder of the work week. Two features of interest will continue their eastward migration today, the aformentioned tropical low and a surface cold front. While we we not see significant impacts from these features until tomorrow, their approach will influence local weather today. Along and ahead of these features, we will remain in strong southerly flow at the surface. This will work to bring tropical moisture well into the TN Valley with dew points rising into the low to mid 70s by this evening. Highs will be a few degrees warming making it into the high 80s to low 90s. The high dew points will push Heat Index values into the mid to high 90s, highest in NW AL. Thankfully, with the approaching low pressure systems, we will have elevated gradient winds with gusts near and just above 20 MPH this afternoon.

The additional moisture today will again support afternoon showers with a low chance of thunder, mainly for areas south of the TN river. Currently, the overnight hours look to remain mostly dry with rain chances picking up just before sunrise. The short term forecast will address the early morning rain chances.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 1045 AM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Tropical Storm Arthur looks to move on shore near Louisiana late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning and push ENE through the short term forecast. In the last 24 hours of model guidance, models have been fairly consistent in keeping the actual low well south of us, with the bulk of it moving through central AL. As such, our impacts from this tropical low will be much more conditional, contingent on if we get any heavier bands of showers and storms that lift north. This makes the flooding and severe forecast rather challenging.

If heavier bands do not lift north, we may not get much rain at all, certainly no widespread severe or flooding threat. The remainder of this paragraph will cover if heavier bands do lift north. We will have enough shear and instability in place to support a low severe threat with damaging winds being the primary concern. Hodographs are not super supportive of tornadoes, but with very low LCLs and potential cell interaction, a weak tropical tornado cannot be ruled out. Heavy rain will however be the overall biggest concern. Models indicate PWATS may climb a decent bit above 2" putting us well above the 90th percentile for PWATS per SPC sounding climatology for both OHX and BMX. With high mid and low level RH, all storms will be capable of heavy downpours that could lead to nuisance flooding or flash flooding if storms train over the same area. Models keep the heaviest rainfall to our south, yet inconsistently show isolated bullseyes of 3+ inches. Seeing this much rain will again depend on if heavier tropical bands make it this far north.

What has become a little more clear is timing for both the rain associated with the tropical storm and the approaching cold front. Morning models are in decent agreement showing rain lifting north into our area around sunrise and remaining for most of the work day. The approaching front has slowed down and now looks to move in early Friday morning. Uncertainty remains regarding coverage of showers and storms along the front as it moves through. Currently we are maintaining highest rain chances at 50-60% for Friday morning with dry conditions developing by Friday afternoon.

Unfortunately the remainder of the short term will be somewhat unsettled as we remain in southerly surface flow supporting low to medium shower chances on Saturday. The good news is, for both Friday and Saturday, we are not currently forecasting any widespread severe or flooding risks.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 812 PM CDT Tue Jun 16 2026

On Saturday, the cold front will be well to our south and sfc high pressure will build in from the Midwest and OH Valley. This will give us a much needed break in the rain with only low chances (5-15%) of showers/storms in place, with the higher values south of the TN River. Daytime highs will be in the mid to upper 80s, but not sure if it will dry out enough to get any postponed yard work done. Unfortunately, this drier forecast won't last long. An unsettled pattern will start back up on Father's Day/Sunday and persist into early next week due to rounds of disturbances sliding through and a system swinging across the Midwest into the OH Valley. Look for low to medium chances (30-60%) of showers and thunderstorms each day with highs in the 80s and lows around 70 degrees.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1229 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Ceilings will drift between VFR and MVFR for most of the afternoon as bands of heavier clouds associated with Tropical Storm Arthur push north. Conditions will begin to deteriorate after 06Z as much lower IFR ceilings filter in. Around 12Z, heavier rain looks to push north with rain chances remaining through the TAF period. There is a significant amount of uncertainty in the forecast beyond 12 hours regarding the presence of wind shear, timing of heaviest rain and storms, and duration of IFR conditions. Subsequent TAF issuances will work to resolve these as best as possible.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.