textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 951 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms of 20-50% tonight will increase to 40-60% by this afternoon. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main impacts from the storms.

- A fairly widespread coverage of rain (and some embedded thunderstorms) is expected on Sunday. A low risk for flash and areal flooding will exist during this period.

- A cold front will usher a drier airmass into the region early Monday morning, which will remain in place for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 248 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A cold front continues to push through the area early this morning. Scattered showers have been seen mainly north of the TN River and west of I-65 and so far no lightning has occurred. Current temps range from the upper 60s to lower 70s and will remain on the warmer side of seasonal norms. We will continue to monitor for fog development during the morning hours, but increasing cloud cover will likely mitigate fog formation for most of the area.

Previous discussion: On Saturday, the frontal boundary should be located somewhere in a SW-NE manner across the forecast area. The presence of the boundary, deeper moisture (precipitable water amounts generally greater than 2"), very warm temperatures from daytime heating will result in scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Weak shear and not very high instabilities should keep overall storm strength below severe criteria. Despite on-going dry conditions, heavy rainfall could runoff and produce ponding of water issues if heavy downpours impact a singular area. With more clouds than sun and rain chances, high temperatures to close out the week should warm into the low/mid 80s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 951 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

High moisture content should continue Saturday night into Sunday, as additional moisture moves inland from the Gulf region. This moisture along with an upper low moving across the Deep South will bring scattered to numerous showers and storms over and around the region. The heaviest rainfall per the blends and 18Z model output should remain just south of the Tennessee Valley. The new NAM coming in was confirming a more southern extent of the heaviest rainfall. Despite dry antecedent conditions from a dry spell, very heavy rain rates should they occur more to the north could produce runoff and flooding issues in parts of the Valley. The heaviest rainfall per the blends should occur from late Sat night into much of Sun. Lows Sat night should range in the mid/upper 60s. With more clouds and higher rain chances, it will be a bit cooler on Sun with highs from the mid 70s to around 80.

Shower activity should taper off from SW-NE Sun night, as another cold front pushes shower activity well south of the Valley. Lows should fall into the mid 50s to lower 60s. Overnight fog formation could become an issue Sun night should skies clear and winds are lighter than currently forecast. Seasonably warm conditions return Mon with highs rising into the lower 80s.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 951 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Dry weather looks to reign for remainder of the work week, as high pressure to our north builds southward and controls the general weather pattern. With more sun than clouds, daily highs should rise to around 80 Tue and Wed, and in the mid 80s Thu and Fri. With longer nights as we progress through the fall season, lows will be a bit cooler, ranging from the mid/upper 40s sheltered valleys to the low/mid 50s near large bodies of water.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 658 AM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Low to medium chances for rain and thunderstorms will persist today through tomorrow as a cold front advances through the area. This will result in periods of rain and thunderstorms as well as lower cigs and vsbys at times. VFR to MVFR conditions have persisted so far at both terminals but are forecast to degrade to IFR and even LIFR especially late in the TAF period. There is higher confidence in rain/thunder related impacts over KMSL today.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.