textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

- Gusty southeasterly winds 20-25 mph expected through tonight.

- High chances for showers begin tonight with a low chance for strong to severe thunderstorms.

- Widespread 1-2 inches of rainfall with locally higher amounts up to 3 inches (mainly in NW Alabama) is expected which may result in flash flooding.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A large area of moderate to at times heavy precipitation continues to move east across western Mississippi and Tennessee ahead of a pre-frontal trough axis that stretches from extreme NE Arkansas into central Lousiana. Earlier lightning activity has really dropped off significantly over the last few hours. Latest surface analysis seems to show southeasterly flow is holding fast ahead of this approaching trough axis.

This may be keeping the atmosphere a bit more stable than 00Z models are suggesting (dewpoints holding in the lower 60s with dewpoints in the 58 to 60 degree range upstream). Not sure the warm front will move north as this pre-frontal trough axis moves east into the area as models were previously suggesting. Overall confidence has decreased in the severe threat, but cannot say it is absolutely zero as we get towards midnight through about 5 AM. Damaging winds and any tornado chances are very minimal though. The current area of moderate to heavy rainfall should push into NW Alabama between 10 and 11 PM.

However, with a slow moving trough axis behind this precipitation and high PWAT values for this time of year, some heavier rainfall still is expected west of the I-65 corridor. The Weather Prediction Center continues to have NW Alabama in a slight risk of Excessive rainfall and further east in a marginal risk tonight into through 6 AM on Wednesday. One to three inches of rainfall in NW Alabama still looks reasonable. Closer to an inch looks more likely further east.

Southerly flow ahead of the front on Wednesday could bring a bit more instability northward. Some dry air aloft is seen in most guidance and lingering 30 to 40 knots worth of 0-6 km bulk shear. However, lapse rates don't look particularly steep in forecast soundings. Couldn't rule out an isolated severe storm, but would expect most convection to be on the strong side. After around noon to 2 PM...this shear does drop off in most guidance to less than 30 knots. Though some additional thunderstorms with heavy rainfall will move more quickly east across NE Alabama through the early evening hours, no additional severe weather is expected. Portions of northern Alabama (mainly near and east of the I-65 corridor) and our southern middle Tennessee counties are in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall through the early evening hours on Wednesday. Highs with stronger warm air advection will likely allow temperatures to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s, despite rainfall/thunderstorm activity and cloud cover.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Wednesday night looks like a good setup for widespread and maybe dense fog. Winds are expected to become light behind the departed front and clear skies in the evening with some increasing cloud cover overnight are expected. Lows should drop into the 45 to 50 degree range west of the I-65 corridor and only into the 55 to 60 degree range further east. A second upper low quickly moves east and merges with the upper low over the central Great Lakes region into Thursday. This pushes a dry front right into and through the area. It will bring much cooler air southeast into the area behind it into the upcoming weekend. Highs on Thursday with more sunshine will likely climb into the lower 70s, despite some very weak cold air advection. With clear skies and light winds expected, temperatures will be able to fall into the lower to mid 40s in many areas Thursday night.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1007 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Stronger cold air advection will occur Friday afternoon into Friday night. This should keep highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s, despite abundant sunshine. Lows should drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s primarily with northerly winds between 5 and 10 mph. The winds should keep frost from forming in most areas. During the day on Saturday, cold air advection and some cloud cover will keep highs from climbing above the upper 50s to lower 60s.

We may be talking about our first taste of temperatures dropping to around freezing or just below Saturday night. It will truly feel a bit on the chilly side.

Temperatures begin to moderate slowly Sunday into Monday, as a more zonal flow aloft develops. Highs should climb back into the lower 60s while low will remain in the lower 30s to around 40 degrees.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 AM CST Wed Nov 4 2026

Inclement weather continued across the TN Valley, with MVFR CIG and/or VSBY reductions and widespread light showers. A line of heavier showers was accompanying an approaching cold front, that extended N/S from south/central IL, to east of KMEM, to west of KMSY. This boundary should reach KMSL ~15Z Wed morning, and KHSV around 18Z. Although no lightning was now occurring, a slight increase in instability could result in a few thunderstorms, therefore kept a mention of TSRA as a TEMPO or PROB30 in both TAFs late tonight and Wed morning. CIG/VSBY reductions to IFR, at times could occur in the heaviest showers with erratic gusty winds. SE winds of 10-15kt should veer to a southerly direction Wed morning, and then SW-W in the afternoon. Improvements in minimums is expected late in the TAF

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.