textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 447 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

- Medium to high chances of rain is expected Wednesday night into Thursday.

- Major impacts expected with a winter storm Friday night through Sunday. Thus, a Winter Storm Watch has been issued from 6 PM on Friday through 6 PM on Sunday.

- Dangerously cold temperatures Sunday night into Monday with single digit wind chills forecast.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 447 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Currently, calm conditions across the area with just a few high clouds moving across the area.

More concentrated and thicker cloud cover seen on satellite imagery over eastern Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana will move east into the area just after daybreak into the mid morning hours in most guidance based on satellite imagery trends. This is all ahead of a longwave trough axis that is swinging southeast through NW flow aloft and a weak surface low over the western Gulf states.

Fairly strong forcing at 700 mb develops as the longwave trough axis and associated cold front swings southeast and into the Tennessee Valley today and early this evening. Expect precipitation to develop ahead of it this afternoon. Not very heavy precipitation is expected, but up to 0.2 inches could occur (mainly in NW Alabama).

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 1003 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

The aforementioned cold front continues its progression through the TN Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Medium to high chances (60-80%) for rain continue until Thursday morning. Latest forecast guidance indicates this frontal boundary slows or stalls across portions of central/northern AL during the day on Thursday. This will keep medium chances (40-60%) for on and off rain into Friday morning. Despite all day precipitation, afternoon highs on Thursday will top out in the lower 50s. The cold front should gradually shift further south and east by Friday resulting in a colder airmass filtering in from the north. There should be a lull in the precip during the late morning into the afternoon on Friday, but given uncertainty in the ensemble guidance will maintain the blended low to medium (30-40%) of light rain.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 447 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Confidence continues to increase in major impacts from a winter storm across the TN Valley Friday night through the weekend. Take some time now to make necessary preparations ahead of this storm. In short, where you are Friday night is where you will likely be stuck through Monday as a wintry mix of precip combined with subfreezing temperatures will make for hazardous travel.

As an Arctic airmass filters in Friday, temperatures are forecast to dip below freezing. A wintry mix of precip will begin to overspread the area from west to east starting Friday night. A deepening low pressure system across Southern CA will eject eastward and in response, the upper level jet will strengthen resulting a very favorable synoptic environment across the local forecast area. The biggest question is what type of precip will fall? Ensemble guidance continues to show a small warm nose aloft in the vertical profile. This will result in all types of wintry precip including snow, ice, and freezing rain. What does appear likely is that further north of the TN River there are higher probabilities of snow and further south the probabilities increase for both freezing rain and sleet.

Though uncertainty of what type of winter weather will end up producing possible winter storm conditions across the area Friday night through Sunday afternoon, confidence is high enough (50-60% confidence) to warrant either ice accumulation or snow/sleet accumulations that could reach winter storm criteria (snow - at least 2 to 3 inches and ice at least 0.25 inches). Thus, have issued a Winter Storm Watch for all of northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee from 6 PM on Friday through 6 PM on Sunday.

Precip comes to an end Sunday evening from west to east. In its wake, a very cold airmass pushes in bringing dangerously cold conditions to the TN Valley. Overnight lows Sunday drop down into the lower teens with wind chills near zero. Temperatures will remain below freezing on Monday with overnight lows dropping down into the single digits. Fortunately by Monday night winds should remain light keeping wind chills at the observed temperatures. We finally warm up above freezing on Tuesday, but only into the mid 30s. Unfortunately, this prolonged stretch of cold weather will likely keep hazardous travel conditions into the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1045 PM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

VFR conditions continue overnight into tomorrow. Rain begins to overspread from west to east late tomorrow afternoon and continues through the end of the TAF period. Expect cigs to gradually lower through tomorrow night with fuel alternate cigs by the end of the period. There is some potential for IFR clouds to push in before 06z, but held off on this forecast.

CLIMATE

Issued at 425 AM CST Wed Jan 21 2026

Moderate and/or High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a Moderate risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between January 28, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is a 40-60% chance for temperatures below 18-21 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Winter Storm Watch from Friday evening through Sunday afternoon for TNZ076-096-097.