textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 912 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

- Strong to severe storms capable of damaging winds (50-60mph) and large hail (up to 1 inch) are expected late this morning through the afternoon.

- Dry weather finally returns Tuesday and continues through the remainder of the work week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 912 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Satellite imagery this morning shows low level clouds, primarily along and east of I-65, slowly eroding from west to east. To the north, scattered mid to high level clouds ahead of convection across western KY/TN is pushing southward. Based on the trends, we will see some clearing across the area before the aformentioned convection arrives later today. Southerly sfc flow combined with sunshine will help warm temperatures up into mid to upper 80s. Perhaps a few degrees cooler across portions of NE AL where cloud cover lingers a bit longer this morning.

Our focus then turns to a MCS propagating SSE that is currently over western KY. The CAMs are in good agreement this morning that the MCS should follow along an instability gradient from north- central TN southeastward into NE AL. Due to the better model consistency SPC has placed the entire CWA within a Slight Risk (level 2 out of 5). The airmass that this system will be moving into is highly unstable with SBCAPE forecast between 2500-3500 J/kg and mid level lapse rates near 7 C/km. Bulk shear increases ahead of the MCS to around 30 knots which combined with the instability makes the conditions favorable for severe storms. The main threats today are damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and large hail (up to quarter sized). The vertical wind shear profile is on the weaker side and linear making tornadoes unlikely today. The MCS should arrive into our NW AL and southern middle TN counties around 10-11 am and then quickly move to the SSE, exiting the entire forecast area by 2-3 pm. While the fast movement of the line of storms should limit flooding threats, given the amount of rain the area has seen over the last week, there may be some localized flooding.

Once the line of storms clears the area a dry evening is forecast. Mild and humid conditions still are forecast as the drier air remains displaced to the north. Overnight lows only drop down into the mid 60s. Low clouds should linger around overnight, but if some clearing occurs fog would be favorable.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 912 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

A welcomed pattern change arrives during the short term period. After over a week of daily rain chances, both Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to be dry. As a cooler and drier airmass advects in from the north, dewpoints will fall on Tuesday from the lower 60s down into the mid 50s on Wednesday. A nice reprieve from the sauna-like 70 degree dewpoints. Afternoon highs each afternoon will rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s with overnight lows in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

A large area of high pressure will build in mid to late week, promoting tranquil, dry conditions through Friday as ample sunshine and light southerly winds will allow highs to reach the mid to perhaps upper 80s, with overnight dropping to the upper 50s to lower 60s. The high will eventually slide east of the area during the weekend as another system approaches from the west. This may bring low chances (20-30%) of showers/storms back into the forecast for Saturday and low-medium (20-40%) on Sunday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 646 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Low clouds moved in from the SE overnight, resulting in IFR CIGs, with some reductions to LIFR, and some spots being impacted by fog. The low clouds and fog should gradually dissipate within the next hour or so as daytime heating and mixing commence. A convective complex over MO/IL and far western KY will continue moving to the SE, and should impacting the TN Valley later this morning and this afternoon. Storms with this complex could become strong to severe, with strong to damaging outflow wind gusts and large hail the main threats, along with torrential rainfall and frequent lightning. A risk of strong storms should end as we go into the late afternoon, with showers ending in the evening. With light winds, skies clearing and plenty of residual ground moisture, more fog development could occur later tonight into the predawn of Tue.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.