textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1110 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

- A Heat Advisory is in place today for Lauderdale and Colbert County until 7 PM, with additional advisories likely needed later in the week.

- Shower and thunderstorm chances are increasing for Monday. Gusty winds may accompany these storms.

- A cold front (preceded by thunderstorms) will bring a slightly cooler/drier airmass to the region for the end of the work week. Rain chances will increase once again early next weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 233 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

through the night we will remain under the influence of a pesky stationary front that just won't leave. The incredibly moist environment paired with weak lift from the front has allowed some showers to form across the TN Valley. It is likely that showers will remain on radar in some capacity for most of the night with a low chance of lightning. Showers look to dissipate around sunrise as the pesky front lifts further north.

While some cloud cover may linger into the mid morning, overall rain chances will be much lower today than previous days. As such, temperatures will be quickly soar into the low to mid 90s. Past and current observations show a large swath of high 70s dew points from NW AL up into the midwest. Weak NW flow at the surface will work to reinforce the high dew points into NW AL. Based on the fact we saw 79 degree dew points this afternoon, I feel it is entirely believable that forecasted high dew points will verify again today. With high temps and high dew points, heat quickly becomes a concern. Heat indices look highest in NW AL where the highest dew points will reside. As such, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Lauderdale and Colbert Counties from 11 AM through 7 PM. Regardless of locations of headlines, with a hot weak ahead of us, make sure to continue to practice proper heat safety!

Of course it wouldn't be true NW flow aloft if I didn't have to address the forecast uncertainty regarding our low chance for rain and storms this afternoon. Several shortwaves look to ripple down toward the base of the trough, with each having the potential to initiate storms in the midwest. Currently, CAMS are a hot mess with each depicting a different solution to when and where storms fire. It looks likely that there will be a decaying MCS somewhere to our NW by this afternoon. Pending the details of the MCS initiation, we could see some scattered showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon/evening.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night to Tuesday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Early next week, and in fact, for much of the week, the pattern across the CONUS will remain entrenched...featuring a broad sub- tropical ridge centered over the SW and a trough along the East Coast. The TN Valley will lie essentially at the trough/ridge interface, although characteristic "wobbling" of the broad ridge will lead to some changes in our weather over the period. For Monday, a shortwave rounding the northern and then eastern flank of the ridge, may move into the TN Valley. This is depicted in the broader medium range guidance suite. This will be the fly in the ointment so to speak for the issuance of any Heat Advisory for Monday that would otherwise be warranted given sfc temp/dew point expectations. However, with the presence of a possible MCS or even a training of convection that looks plausible, the rain would limit heating of course, but the potential instability could produce strong thunderstorm activity. This will bear some watching for the Monday morning/afternoon timeframe.

Otherwise for Tuesday, as the subtropical ridge is expected to move and expand eastward towards the region, a plume of hot air extending from the SW CONUS looks to sweep across the region. Temperatures on Tuesday are currently forecast to reach the mid/upr 90s at most locations, but 100 F degrees or higher is not out of the questions. Heat indices could breach 110 F as well with WBGTs at/above 90s in more urban locations.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1100 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Extended range model data suggests that a developing surface low will track eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states on Tuesday night/Wednesday, in conjunction with an amplifying longwave trough across the eastern CONUS. A cold front attached to the low appears likely to drop southward through the TN Valley during this timeframe, although details regarding specific timing are unclear at this point. A warm/moist airmass is expected to be in place ahead of the front, with steep low/mid-level lapse rates and CAPE to support a couple of rounds of thunderstorms (perhaps an MCS Tuesday night followed by additional convection more directly forced by the cold front Wednesday). Furthermore, deep-layer NW flow of 20-30 knots will exist within a contracted height gradient between the trough to our east and a strong mid-level high over the southwestern CONUS, and this could support a risk for damaging winds given the favorable thermodynamic environment.

In the wake of the front, light-moderate northerly winds will advect a cooler/drier continental airmass into the region, with dewpoints briefly falling into the 60s an PWAT values falling to around or slightly below 1" from Wednesday night-Thursday night (and perhaps into Friday as well). By the end of the forecast period, deep-layer SSW flow will return to the region as an amplifying shortwave trough (traveling around the periphery of the ridge to our west) digs southeastward into the Mid-MS/Lower-OH Valley region and a surface low shifts eastward from the Red River Valley into the Arklamiss vicinity. Rich moisture will return to the region as this occurs, with an increase in the coverage of showers/thunderstorms expected beginning late Friday night and continuing through Saturday.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2026

Shortly after 6Z, lower MVFR ceilings look to filter into HSV and linger through mid morning. Around 16Z they will begin to lift with VFR conditions prevail through the remainder of the period. The lower ceilings don't look to make it to MSL, with VFR conditions in place the whole TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001-002.

TN...None.