textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

- Temperatures will be above normal through Sunday, with highs in the upper 60s-mid 70s.

- A strong cold front will move through the area on Sunday night, bringing high chances of precipitation Sunday evening and much colder temperatures to the area early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 240 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

There have been no major changes to near term forecast reasoning this afternoon. Current satellite data and surface observations indicate that sufficient insolation has occurred beneath scattered- broken layers of stratocumulus to permit temperatures to reach the l-m 70s as of this writing, and overnight lows in the l-m 50s still appear reasonable. Although a stray light shower or sprinkle of rain may still occur across the northeastern corner of the CWFA (and in the vicinity of a developing warm front) both this afternoon and overnight, rain chances even in this region appear very low (less than 10%). If skies can remain partially clear this evening, development of fog will be possible as winds subside, and the anticipated synoptic environment would favor the development of locally dense fog in some locations early Thursday morning.

Previous Discussion: A mid-level subtropical high will remain positioned across the central Gulf through the near term period, maintaining NW flow aloft of 30-40 knots across the TN Valley. Along the northern rim of the broader ridge, a vorticity maxima will travel anticyclonically from the central High Plains into western portions of VA/NC by the end of the period, with this disturbance predicted to initiate development of a weak surface low across eastern KS/western MO later today. In the low-levels, our forecast area will remain within a light southwesterly flow regime today between a high along the central Gulf Coast and a weakening cold front (currently located across southern KY) that will advance northward in response to surface pressure falls to our northwest. Although radar reflectivity data indicated the presence of a few low-topped showers and pockets of sprinkles spreading southeastward off the front and into our region earlier this morning, we expect this regime to progressively end from SW-to-NE over the course of the day as an effective warm front becomes established to our northeast. With skies transitioning to partly cloudy-mostly sunny as this occurs, highs appear on track to reach the m-u 60s in elevated terrain and l-m 70s in the valley.

Overnight, a weak surface low (initially across eastern KS/western MO) will shift eastward into the Upper OH Valley, focusing the greatest coverage of showers and perhaps even a few weak thunderstorms well to our northeast. Light southwesterly flow in the boundary layer will persist across our region, maintaining a moist airmass (characterized by dewpoints in the m-u 50s) and this will provide a favorable environment for development of fog beginning early this evening. As temperatures descend into the l-m 50s, fog could become widespread and locally dense during the early morning hours on Christmas Day.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday night) Issued at 1105 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Short range model consensus suggests that the subtropical ridge to our south will gradually deamplify during the timeframe from Thursday-Friday night, as a stronger mid-level shortwave lifts northeastward from the Great Basin into the Upper MS Valley by Friday morning and into the northeastern CONUS by the end of the period. This disturbance will be responsible for development of another/stronger surface low over the central High Plains Thursday, which will progress into the Mid-MS Valley Thursday night and across IL/IN/OH on Friday. Although forecast soundings do not suggest any appreciable change in the magnitude of deep- layer flow across our region as this occurs, this evolution will result in gradual backing of winds (particularly in the low- levels), which will contribute to weak lift within an increasingly moist boundary layer. Thus, we expect early morning fog on Christmas Day to transition into an overcast layer of low stratus clouds throughout the day, which will likely maintain a presence across the CWFA through Friday night (if not beyond). Chances for measurable precipitation will remain very low (less than 10%) for most of the period, although some drizzle will certainly be possible beneath the stratus layer. However, a few light showers will be possible on Friday afternoon/evening, as dewpoints rise further into the low 60s ahead of the surface low's trailing cold front (which will stall to our northwest). Temperatures will remain mild through the period (in spite of cloud cover), with highs in the u60s-m70s and overnight lows in the m-u 50s.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 959 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

Saturday into Sunday will bring the last of the string unseasonably mild days as an upper ridge shift east as a deep upper low and trough swings southeast into the eastern CONUS. This brings a strong Arctic cold front through the region late Sunday afternoon and evening. A round of showers will occur with the front, although will need to assess stability trends as we move closer given the strong bulk shear. But at this time, no thunderstorms are forecast, but stay tuned. After highs in the lower 70s Saturday and upper 60s Sunday, the bottom drops out with readings falling into the 20s Sunday night. Highs will be held to the 30s Monday and Tuesday, with Tuesday morning lows in the teens. Blustery north winds of 10-20 mph are expected Monday, diminishing greatly Monday night into Tuesday.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 429 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Scattered to broken layer around 050agl will last into this evening. VFR conditions will quickly deteriorate to IFR due to widespread low ceiling development of 005-010agl. There is a medium chance that even lower ceilings and LIFR conditions develop, so amendments may be necessary. Ceilings will lift into the 010-025agl range (MVFR) by ~17Z, lifting further into the VFR category and scattering by 22Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.