textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 842 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

- Low chances of showers and perhaps a thunderstorm south of the TN River Tuesday into Wednesday.

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday into Friday.

- Slight Risk of excessive rainfall/flooding on Thursday into early Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 842 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

A cold front has shifted south of the Tennessee Valley this morning into central AL and MS. This has allowed a drier and cooler northerly flow, with dew points dropping into the upper 50s to lower 60s. High clouds will increase through the day, filtering sunshine a bit this afternoon. High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to around 80, which will be nearly 10 degrees below normal. Mid and high clouds will overspread the area tonight, especially in north AL. Rain will come close to our southern counties by morning, but for now will keep a dry forecast. Low temperatures will drop into the upper 50s in southern TN and parts of northeast AL, to the lower 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday) Issued at 842 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

Rain chances will skirt our southern tier of counties through Tuesday Night and perhaps into Wednesday. However, confidence remains low on this northward progression. The heaviest rain will remain well to our south however where southerly inflow meets up with the old frontal boundary. Tuesday should be another cooler day with highs only in the upper 70s higher elevations to lower 80s valleys. Warm advection will pick up on Wednesday bringing temperatures closer to normal into the middle to upper 80s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

As an upper level low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region, an upper level trough and subsequent cold front drop down into the Ohio River Valley and toward the TN Valley. Ahead of this front, the area will be primed with available moisture as southerly flow brings PWATs into the 1.9-2.1" range (above the 90th percentile per BMX and OHX sounding climatology). Additionally, CAPE will yield plenty of available instability with values reaching around 1500-2000 J/kg during Thursday afternoon. However, shear remains relatively weak. We will be watching the evolution and timing of this cold front as whether it approaches during the peak afternoon heating versus overnight when there is less available instability will make a large difference in potential threats on the table for us. No matter the details, there remains high chances (70-90%) of thunderstorms moving through the area sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday. This will be our primary feature to watch in the long term as it could bring another flash flood threat to the area. Another threat to watch on Thursday will be the heat as highs reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. We will be monitoring how rain chances and accompanying cloud cover affect these temperatures, however, encourage everyone to practice heat safety to prevent heat related illness.

Post-frontal conditions through the first half of the weekend should be mostly dry as sfc high pressure filters in from the west with high temperatures capped in the low to mid 80s. Rainfall chances (20-40%) return on Sunday as the aforementioned frontal boundary shifts back northward and stalls over Central AL. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, we encourage you to check back in for updates as we progress through the week.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1121 AM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast through this evening. Patchy BR/FG will occur in some locations overnight, but this looks like a low probability for KHSV and KMSL, so have left out this update for those terminals. Ceilings above 120agl will arrive by 15Z, with lower ceilings remaining south of KHSV and KMSL during this period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.