textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 858 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

- Low chance of showers and storms today, followed by medium to high chances on Friday and Saturday. - Temperatures will remain slightly below normal today before gradually warming this weekend. - Moderate HeatRisk (Level 2 of 4) is forecast Friday and over the weekend, with Heat Index values peaking in the upper 90s to 105 degrees.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 858 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper level low pressure over Georgia is sandwiched between upper highs over the Gulf and Appalachians. Meanwhile, surface high pressure persists over the Tennessee Valley. Overall, even with elevated moisture levels, without any real source of lift (unless a remnant outflow boundary occurs), thinking that coverage of showers and storms will be on the lower end today. Also, with bulk shear around 20 knots or less and downburst parameters not met, not forecasting any severe weather at this time. Heavy downpours and frequent lightning will therefore be the main threats with any storms that occur today. Expect one more day of (slightly) lower than normal high temperatures, with values forecast to reach the mid to upper 80s for most locations. As for tonight, lows are forecast to merely drop into the lower to mid 70s. Additionally, winds will be light to calm with dew point depressions low, resulting in continued chances for patchy fog development (where there are breaks in cloud cover) late tonight through early Friday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 858 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Upper level high pressure will persist to the west generally over the ArkLaMiss and down over the western Gulf. Meanwhile, the aforementioned upper low currently over Georgia looks to eventually dip southward and merge with a tropical wave over the eastern Gulf by Saturday. An upper trough is also shown by guidance to be draped over The Great lakes region and the Ohio Valley by Saturday. At the surface, high pressure persists over the ArkLaTex, with surface boundaries to the north over the Ohio Valley and a developing surface low to the southeast over the Florida Panhandle by late weekend. Ultimately, this pattern along with elevated moisture will set the stage for daily chances of showers and storms (40-80%) Friday and Saturday, with the highest chances during the afternoon and evening hours. Not anticipating severe storms at this time due to lower bulk shear, but heavy downpours and frequent lightning will still be threats with any storms through Saturday.

High temperatures are expected to slowly warm into the upper 80s to lower 90s by Saturday, with lows in the lower to mid 70s. We'll be monitoring the potential for fog development as well due to continued calm winds and lower dew point depressions during the late night/early morning hours.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A deep upper low pressure system over eastern Canada this weekend will slowly weaken as we go into the new week. The presence of the low will in part induce mean troughing along the eastern seaboard from Sunday through the middle of next week. A broad area of surface low pressure should be situated over the southeast region over the weekend. This will create unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley to start the new week. Moisture associated with an area of low pressure over the SE will bring scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm chances on Sun. The higher rain chances will be more to the east, with lesser shower coverage to the west. With a mix of sun and clouds, seasonably warm or hot conditions are expected Sun, with highs from the upper 80s east to lower 90s west, and heat index values from the upper 90s to 104 degrees in a few spots.

The SE area of low pressure should weaken as we go into Mon, along with mean east coast troughing moving a bit more to the east. This will help return mainly drier conditions to the area for Mon-Wed. Under partly cloudy conditions, high temperatures for this period should range mostly in the lower 90s, with some mid 90s on Tue. Heat index values should range from the upper 90s to 104 for the Mon-Wed timeframe. The heat could become an issue on Tue, with an area around greater Huntsville rising into the 105-106 degree. This period is too far out to consider Heat Advisory this issuance, but something to keep in mind for next week. Rather warm low temperatures are expected in the period, in the low/mid 70s. A return of deeper moisture could bring low end chances of showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions have returned to north Alabama at issuance. Low chances of showers and storms exist through the afternoon into early this evening, with heavy rain and frequent lightning being the main threats along with lower VIS and CIGs in the heavier showers/storms. This activity will then diminish this evening, with no rain overnight. The next chance for showers/storms returns early Friday afternoon. For tonight, calm winds, little cloud cover, and low dew point depressions will result in the potential for fog formation. Confidence is low whether this will affect the terminals, but this will be monitored. Guidance does indicate the potential for lower CIGs (to MVFR) for NE AL and into north- central AL, including the HSV terminal, around 12Z Friday morning. This may then persist through the late morning/early afternoon before eroding. As for winds, outside of any storms, west/northwest winds around 10 knots or so with occasional gusts to around 15 knots this afternoon will decrease to be light to calm this evening and overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.