textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 227 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

- High rain chances will arrive on Saturday night. While flooding is not expected, periods of heavy rainfall could lead to hazardous travel conditions.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 227 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Under surface high pressure off to our NE, clear skies and calm winds have prevailed allowing temps to rise into the low 60s area wide. Pleasant conditions will slowly be displaced to our east overnight as high pressure shifts off the mid Atlantic coast and a cut off low pushes across the Gulf coast. Locally, the approaching surface low will allow for cloud cover to increase from the SW overnight with overcast conditions in place by morning. The approaching cloud cover will hinder overnight lows keeping them a few degrees warmer than previous nights in the mid 30s to low 40s.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1130 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

The afore-mentioned partially closed upr-low currently over NW Mexico and the SW CONUS will move quickly eastward, reaching the Southern Plains late Saturday. Ahead of this system, deep backing flow aloft will lead to warm/moist advection while E Pac moisture phases with lower-lvl moisture from the Gulf. Isentropic/thermal analysis indicates light rain could start as early as the late morning and afternoon on Saturday as a warm front crosses the region. However, the bulk of precipitation is more likely to hold off until late Saturday night into Sunday morning just ahead of the vertically stacked low pressure system. A broad swath of climatologically high PWs, around 1.2 to 1.4 inches will be present across the region and will lead to relatively high rainfall rates in some areas. However, our area looks to be largely split by better synoptic forcing (deformation banding) to our north and more favorable conditions for deep convection to our south. In between in our area, the abundance of available moisture may not intersect well with stronger modes of forcing/lift. Thus, we're forecasting more modest precipitation amounts generally around 0.60 to 1.00 inch during the Saturday/Sunday period. However, there are stronger gradients of precipitation just to our north and south, so slight deviations in the track of the mid/upr low would result in changes to precipitation amounts. As of now, NW-N areas are most favorable for the heaviest precipitation in our local forecast area. Sounding profiles indicate slight favorability for thunderstorms especially over the SW ~2/3rds of the area with small MUCAPEs aloft.

The system will depart the area on Sunday, but clouds are expected to linger. Since this system is embedded in an airmass of E Pac/SW Continental origin, don't look for any significant temperature changes behind it. In fact, lows on Monday morning are likely to be near those on Sunday morning (mid 40s to near 50), but may climb higher during the afternoon into the mid 60s with decreasing clouds.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1020 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

A strong upper level ridge that begins over the southern Plains and Mexico on Monday shifts east into the southeast U.S. and Gulf of America through the middle and later part of next week. This will divert an active wave of shortwaves well to our northwest through the central Plains into the Great Lakes. After surface high pressure moves through the TN valley on Monday with light winds and highs in the middle to upper 60s, a steady period of low level south- southwest flow will begin Tuesday and last through the rest of the midweek period. An 8h thermal ridge of temperatures in the middle to upper teens will arrive by Wednesday. A weak surface-8h trough will drop southeast on Thursday, but will do little to surface high temperatures. Highs from Tuesday through Thursday will reach the lower to middle 70s with lows in the 50s as dew points climb into the 50s. The increase in low level moisture should result in lower clouds these days, with a very low chance of light rain or drizzle by Wednesday night into Thursday morning. We are staying with a dry forecast at that time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A system developing over the Southern Rockies will move eastward, resulting in an increase in clouds across the TN Valley. Have kept cloud bases VFR into late Sat afternoon, with better chances of lower CIGs afterwards. Showers from the system should begin across NW AL in the early afternoon. Have added a PROB30 at KMSL to show this. Otherwise, light winds tonight should become SE-S 5-10kt by late Sat morning and the afternoon.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.