textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue this week with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats. - Temperatures will remain near normal through Friday. Heat index values will then increase into the upper 90s to around 103-105 degrees this upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

7 AM soundings from both BMX and OHX show a very saturated atmospheric column in place again today. Looking at observational data, a weak surface low is in place over west central Alabama east of the Columbus, MS area. A bit better convergence seems to be in place on the central and western portion of the surface low. So expecting better coverage of showers and thunderstorms to develop in Mississippi and near the AL/MS border towards noon and into the afternoon hours as a result.

A front extends east from this surface low towards the Tennessee River before heading ESE into Georgia. This will likely be another focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms, but coverage may not be as widespread as further west. Cloudy conditions this morning will help to limit destabilization some. However, instability will build during the day. No shear continues to be shown by guidance and with the very saturated atmospheric profile in place, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop will be the main threat. Some flash flooding could occur if heavier showers/storms train over the same area. Given current cloud cover in place and expected coverage of precipitation today, highs will again struggle to reach the 80 to 85 range.

Expect shower and thunderstorm activity to dissipate quickly around the early evening hours, as the surface low moves further west into Arkansas and we lose daytime heating. Some patchy dense fog could occur where breaks in cloud cover occur (maybe more so in southern middle Tennessee). However, it is not expected to be very widespread.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday through Thursday Night) Issued at 1017 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

As an upper level low pressure retrogrades back west over the southern Plains, upper high pressure begins to stretch from the Ohio Valley down over the Appalachians and towards the Carolina coast Wednesday night into Thursday. This high pressure will then continue to build over the Southeast through Thursday night. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over the region on Wednesday but dissipate by Thursday when high pressure develops. Ultimately, anticipating the unsettled weather to continue through at least Wednesday, with medium chances (40-60%) of showers and storms mainly during the afternoon and early evening hours. With upper level high pressure as well as surface high pressure shown by models to build into the Southeast on Thursday, confidence is low if the coverage of showers/storms will be as much (compared to Wednesday), but this will be monitored.

Model PWATs range between 1.8-2.1 inches on Wednesday, but guidance suggests this moisture will extend into Thursday as well. Looking at sounding climatology at BMX, this PWAT range falls right around and exceeds the 90th percentile (~1.98 inches). Therefore, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. With bulk shear being weak both days along with downburst parameters not being met, not anticipating a severe threat with storms at this time; however, frequent lightning as well as heavy downpours leading to instances of flash flooding will be the main threats. Remember, Turn Around, Don't Drown if you encounter flooded roads!

As for temperatures, expect highs generally in the mid to upper 80s each day with upper 60s to lower 70s at night. With low dew point depressions, we'll also be watching the potential for fog each night where there are breaks in the clouds.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 206 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

In most guidance, ridging is firmly in place over Louisiana and Mississippi, as the upper low moves northeast with time. The eastern edge of this stronger upper level ridging looks to extend east into NW Alabama. This should really limit shower and thunderstorm chances west of the I-65 corridor on Friday. However, models do keep a surface boundary extending from just west of the Ohio Valley SSE into northeastern Alabama and NW Georgia. This could produce some stronger storms in those areas by the mid/late afternoon hours. Raised highs into the 90 to 93 degree range in NW Alabama as a result. This could push heat index values to between 101 and 106 degrees in isolated locations. Further east, more abundant cloud cover and precipitation should keep heat index values more between 100 and 104 degrees. So be careful if working outside. Take heat illness precautions with abundant breaks and frequent hydration. We may have to watch this period for more widespread values reaching heat advisory criteria as we get closer to that timeframe. Lows should remain warm only dropping into the lower 70s.

As a longwave trough axis over the Ohio Valley deepens aloft, forcing aloft increases southward along it into the Tennessee Valley area Friday night into Saturday. This should increase shower and thunderstorm chances again to medium to high chances across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee during the afternoon/early evening hours. Cloud cover and precipitation should limit daytime highs more and lower them back into the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. This should ease heat advisory concerns, but heat index values in the upper 90s to 102 degrees will still be possible. So continue to take precautions if outside.

Not much changes on Sunday, as the axis up the longwave trough axis is slow to move east and a weak upper level disturbance moves southeast into the base of the trough. This will keep medium to high shower and thunderstorm chances in the forecast during the afternoon and evening hours. This activity should diminish during the early evening hours again.

Guidance are in decent agreement, moving the base of the longwave trough axis further and east off the Atlantic coast and into the northern Florida peninsula Sunday night into Monday. Lows should again remain warm in the lower 70s. However, they differ significantly on how additional upper level energy upstream evolves into early next week. If additional energy moves SE via NW flow aloft, higher shower and thunderstorm chances will continue. However, some guidance does hint at a drying trend. The good news even if the drying trend occurs, the Tennessee Valley remains in a trough pattern aloft with the center of a strengthening upper ridge well to our west. This should keep another widespread significant heat wave at bay at least through early next week either way. That being said with highs in the 90 to 95 degree range and dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s, some isolated locations could reach 104 to 107 degree heat index values on Monday particularly. So this period will need to be monitored as we get closer for possible heat advisories.

By Tuesday, it looks like a fairly strong cold front for this time of year pushes quickly south possibly into northern Alabama around 1 PM. If this occurs this early, extended high temperatures may be off and too warm. Highs in the upper mid 80s to around 90 may still occur, but this should reduce heat advisory concerns, maybe by quite a bit. Models right now are in fairly good agreement on the timing of this front, but that can change as we get closer to that timeframe.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 505 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

Bands of -SHRA and TSRA will tend to dissipate quickly after sunset (~01Z), so have maintained VCSH at both TAFs until that time. Overnight, low clouds are expected to develop with a high chance of ceilings below 010agl (IFR) between 09-12Z. Ceilings should lift into the 010-020agl range (MVFR) by 15Z, improving back to VFR by 18Z. There is a medium chance of additional SHRA and TSRA Wednesday afternoon, but have left out due to low confidence on exact timing and location.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.