textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

- Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today.

- There are low to medium chances (20-50%) of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

- Medium chances (40-60%) of showers and thunderstorms on Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 114 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Temperatures are rising into the upper 70s to lower 80s at this hour as south-southwest winds increase to 8-12kt, with gusts of 15-20kt. High temperatures will top out in the 79-86 degree range this afternoon. RH values will dip into the 30-35% range. A 5h ridge axis will shift east tonight as a shortwave tracks into the upper MS valley. A band of thunderstorms will move into IN, western KY and AR very late tonight. A few showers could enter western TN as well, but these are not expected to reach northwest AL before morning. Once again, a west-east temperature gradient of around 10 degrees is expected for overnight lows as high clouds increase. Lows will drop into the middle and upper 50s in eastern Jackson, DeKalb and Cullman Counties, up to the middle 60s in far western Lauderdale and Colbert Counties.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Saturday) Issued at 948 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The upper level ridge continues pushing eastwards on Thursday resulting in a low to medium chance (10-40%) of showers and thunderstorms Thursday afternoon and evening. Rain chances are higher (30-40%) for middle Tennessee and northeastern Alabama. The thunderstorms are not anticipated to be severe and will result in very little precipitation totals for most, generally less than 0.10. Aside from the rain, temperatures will be around 10 degrees warmer than normal with highs in the low to mid 80s. Overnight, temperatures will fall to the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Dry conditions return on Friday and increasing temperatures reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across the Tennessee Valley which is around 13-16 degrees warmer than normal. The high temperatures Friday approach record highs set in 2006 of 90 degrees at HSV and 92 at MSL. Friday night temperatures will continue to be warm with lows in the low to mid 60s across the area. Be sure to drink plenty of water on Friday and take breaks in the shade.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1040 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

A deepening surface low is predicted to eject northeastward from Lake MI into the James Bay vicinity on Saturday/Saturday night in conjunction with a negatively-tilted shortwave (embedded within a broader trough extending from northern Canada into the southern Plains). Strengthening SSW flow is expected to occur throughout the cyclones warm sector, and will contribute to another warm day featuring highs in the mid 80s for our region. Latest extended range model data continues to suggest that showers and a few thunderstorms may develop by mid-day near a prefrontal surface trough extending from western KY into northern MS, and although some of this activity could spread eastward into the western portion of our CWFA late Saturday afternoon, it appears as if precipitation chances will be highest with passage of the cold front Saturday evening. Forecast soundings still depict a layer of warm/stable air aloft (rooted around 4-6 kft AGL) for much of the day, which should gradually begin to erode Saturday evening as a narrow axis of dewpoints in the l-m 60s surges northward ahead of the front and synoptic scale forcing for ascent strengthens ahead of the approaching 500-mb trough. Should an updraft become sufficiently tall to take advantage of mid-level flow that will be increasing to 50-60 knots, brief strong wind gusts may occur. However, at this point, we expect generally weak/low- topped convection, followed by a 2-4 hour period of light postfrontal rain, with rainfall amounts ranging from 0.10-0.25" (SE) to 0.5-0.75" (NW).

Present indications are that rain will end around or shortly before 12Z Sunday in the southeastern portion of the forecast area, with gusty NNW winds advecting a cooler, drier airmass into the region throughout the day. Highs on Sunday will fall back into the m-u 60s (even with abundant sunshine), followed by cool overnight lows in the l-m 40s. Prevailing NW flow aloft to the east of a longwave ridge across the western CONUS will ensure a continuation of dry weather on Monday/Tuesday, although a couple of weak disturbances traveling through the ridge may result in an increase in mid/high-level clouds. Regardless, the onset of SE return flow will lead to a gradual warming trend with highs returning to the mid 70s by the end of the period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 656 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals thru at least the first half of the valid TAF period, with modest low-level moisture advection (related to a 20-25 kt SW low-level jet) supporting development of a few stratocumulus clouds beginning later this evening. A diffuse sfc trough (extending south- southwestward from a low over the Great Lakes) will enter the forecast area shortly after 12Z, and should support the development of light SHRA during the late morning hours as it shifts eastward. At this point, the risk for TSRA appears too low to include in the TAFs, but a PROB30 group has been included from 13-18Z/MSL and 14-19Z/HSV to address the potential for minor vsby reductions within the lgt precipitation. Partial clearing may occur tomorrow aftn in the wake of morning rainfall, with sfc winds expected to remain from the SSW at a prevailing speed of 5-10 kts.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.