textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 956 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the 95 to 103 degree range today through Friday.

- Additional chances of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday afternoon and evening, and again over the weekend.

- Monitoring the risk for additional heavy rain and flooding early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Recent radar/satellite trends indicate a bubbling Cu field with some light returns on radar. Thus, some weak (but diurnally driven) light showers have formed across northern Alabama this afternoon. Most of this activity hasn't shown the ability to sustain an updraft given the subsidence from the ridge axis. However, a very moist and unstable airmass and the complex terrain along the Cumberland Plateau could result in a rogue storm or two developing this afternoon. Any storm that develops could produce some localized heavy downpours and gusty winds. Therefore, have bumped up PoPs just a touch into the 10-20% range for this afternoon.

Otherwise, most locations will remain dry through this afternoon. After sunset, clouds will dissipate with a clear/calm night forecast across the Tennessee Valley. However, the very humid conditions will continue with dewpoints around 70 degrees and thus lows in the lower 70s will be common.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday through Friday) Issued at 956 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

High pressure will remain the dominant weather feature over the region on Thursday, with strong subsidence again suppressing convection. Heat will again be the main concern as highs in the low to mid 90s, combined with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will push peak heat index values between 97-103 degrees in the afternoon. Muggy conditions will persist overnight as low temperatures will likely only drop to the low to mid 70s. A bit of a change on Friday as the ridge temporarily flattens and a fast moving shortwave will bring a weak boundary in the area. This feature may aid in some largely diurnally driven convection Friday afternoon and evening (40-70%) coverage. Locally heavy downpours and perhaps some gusty winds may occur with the strongest convection. Cloud cover won't suppress the heat too much, with lower 90s highs still common (along with heat indices around 100 degrees).

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The primary concern through the weekend will be the return of rain chances and a subsequent flash flooding risk. An upper level low will push eastward into the Great Lakes region, bringing upper level troughing and a resultant cold front southward. Model uncertainty continues to exist on the southward extent of this system, which will greatly affect rain chances in the area. A sfc high centered in the Gulf will bring southerly flow and increased moisture to the area ahead of this system, resulting in PWATs reaching around 1.5-2" through the weekend. These PWAT values are around the 90th percentile per sounding climatology at BMX. Any showers or thunderstorms that form will likely be efficient rainfall producers, which will cause an increased risk of flash flooding due to antecedent rainfall and current soil conditions. The western portions of northern AL have already been outlooked in a Marginal (risk level 1 of 4) excessive rainfall risk on Saturday and an eastward expansion of this (pending additional model agreement in trends) would not be surprising. CAPE values are forecast to reach ~1500 J/kg during diurnal heating both Saturday and Sunday with sufficient low level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Despite shear remaining weak, a low chance for strong storms could exist if forcing materializes for our area. Recent trends continue to push higher rain chances later, so would not be surprised if forcing for storms does not arrive until Sunday into the early part of next week. Heat will also be of continued concern as highs top out in the upper 80s through the weekend with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, be sure to keep updated on the latest forecast and be sure to practice heat safety to avoid heat related illness.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1153 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail at each terminal through the period with light SW winds and some SCT/BKN Cu decks around 3-5 kft. Clouds will disperse after sunset, with clear calm conditions prevailing overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.