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KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 224 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

- Cold Weather Advisory is in effect 11 PM tonight through Noon Sunday for dangerously cold wind chills between -5F and 5F.

- Wind gusts between 25-35 mph tonight through Saturday night.

- Low chance of light snow (little to no accumulation expected) tonight across portions of northeast AL and southern middle TN.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 224 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

This morning will start off below freezing once again with temperatures in the low to mid 20s. Ensure you bundle up for your morning commute and bus stop wait by dressing in layers, and having a hat and gloves.

A passing shortwave that will phase in with an upper level trough digging through the Midwest will bring us mostly cloudy skies today. That won't let the sun help us out at all against the battle of CAA from the tightening pressure gradient creating gusty northerly winds, 15-20mph. Daytime highs will only reach the upper 30s in southern middle TN down to NW AL and in the low to mid 40s elsewhere. In perspective, this will feel quite warm compared to tonight and tomorrow as temps will absolutely tank tonight and create dangerous wind chills. More information on this in the Short Term.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday) Issued at 930 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

The coldest airmass of the year arrives starting Friday night as a an upper level trough digs southward from the upper Midwest towards the Southeast. As the upper level low drops across the Ohio River Valley, a sfc low is forecast to develop off the GA/SC coast. Given the proximity of this system, latest CAMs are showing some light snow falling across portions of southern middle TN and northeast AL. Most likely amounts would be a dusting to around a tenth of inch of snow. However, confidence in any accumulating snowfall is quite low as the more persistent heavier snow should fall east and northeast of the local forecast area.

The greater concern locally will be the dangerously cold wind chills this weekend. Winds overnight Friday will begin to increase as the pressure gradient tightens from the sfc low and the Arctic high that begins to drop down across the Plains. Gusts between 25-35 mph from Friday night through Saturday afternoon are expected with the strongest gusts along the higher terrain in northeast AL. As temperatures plummet overnight into the teens, wind chills will drop as low as -5F by early Saturday morning. Strong CAA throughout the day on Saturday will prevent temperature from climbing above the lower 20s with wind chills in the single digits. Overnight lows on Saturday drop down into the lower 10s with wind chills once again just below zero. Therefore a Cold Weather Advisory has been issued for our entire area starting 11 PM Friday night and continuing through Noon Sunday afternoon. If you need to go outside during this timeframe, please remember to wear multiple layers and cover up any exposed skin to prevent frostbite.

The pressure gradient begins to relax by Sunday as the sfc low moves further up the East Coast reducing the strong wind gusts. Northerly flow aloft will once again keep afternoon temperatures on the colder side, but not nearly as cold as Saturday. Expect afternoon highs to climb into the upper 20s to lower 30s. Another cold night is in store Sunday with lows dipping down into the upper teens to lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 930 PM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Northwest flow aloft will start the long term period as an upper ridge makes its way towards the Southeast. This ridge will likely be brief, since a rather large, positively-tilted trough looks to develop and swing over the region from mid to late week. At the surface, high pressure during the early part of the week will be pushed eastward by a strengthening low pressure system slated to traverse the Mississippi River Valley Tuesday into Wednesday. Guidance indicates that the low will then dip southeastward towards Florida by Thursday. What does this mean for our sensible weather next week? Dry weather Monday into Tuesday will be followed by our next chance at precipitation (30-60%) Tuesday through Wednesday night.

Confidence is starting to increase that much of the precipitation from this system will be rain (versus a wintry mix or snow). Highs are now forecast to reach the lower to mid 50s on Tuesday and the upper 40s to lower 50s on Wednesday. In addition, forecast lows Tuesday night have trended warmer, with values in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees. Precipitation chances decrease Wednesday evening; however, how quickly the precipitation ends will be something to watch, as lows Wednesday night are expected to dip into the upper 20s to around 30 degrees. Ensemble guidance does suggest that there is a low chance (10-25%) of light snow or flurries over portions of northeast Alabama and into southern middle Tennessee Wednesday night, with little to no accumulation according to model cluster analysis. We'll continue to keep an eye on trends, but little if any impacts are anticipated at this time.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Fri Jan 30 2026

Northerly winds will pick up mid day today with gusts 15-20 kts, and gust 25 kts or slightly higher towards the end of the TAF period. MVFR CIGS will filter in shortly after winds pick up and remain in place through the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to noon CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.


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