textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- A low chance (10-30%) for additional showers and storms from the remnants of Arthur this evening and overnight. Low chances of flooding exist in primarily northeast Alabama with gusty winds up to 40-50 mph in stronger storms.

- After a brief period of dry weather late Friday into Saturday morning, additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are forecast into the long term period with high rain chances Sunday and Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 241 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

As anticipated, the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur and associated impacts have primarily remained south of the TN Valley. The highest wind gust thus far was 35 kts measured at the Huntsville airport with a morning band of precipitation. Measured rainfall rates peaked at 1.5"/hr in northeast AL. Additional bands of heavier rain with gusty winds may push into northeast AL again later this afternoon into the evening. However, these are anticipated to weaken as they traverse northward, as have all the other storms that entered the TN Valley today. Additional rainfall amounts up to 1-2" are forecast with isolated bullseyes up to 3" if training of storms occurs.

Otherwise, these areas of storms will push eastward through this evening with most coverage in northern Alabama ending shortly near or after sunset. Subsidence on the back end of this system will also inhibit additional convection initiation, or suppress ongoing storms, with an approaching weak cold front from Tennessee. Winds taper off overnight and if there are periods of clear skies, patchy fog may develop in sheltered valleys. Otherwise, look for overnight lows in the low 70s to upper 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 1039 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

The cold front will continue to sag southward tomorrow through the region. Overall rain chances are low (10-20%) over the TN Valley with this front, but increase south of the area where the front is expected to stall. Should the front struggle to push south of us, a more likely case should Arthur's remnants track farther north, then Friday's rain chances will drastically increase. Friday night looks to be more pleasant as surface high pressure slides across north of the stalled boundary, bringing mostly clear skies and overnight lows in the mid 60s. The boundary is picked up by a lee cyclone over the Rockies and will push northward on Saturday. This will bring 30-40% rain chances to southern and western AL Saturday morning and afternoon due to diurnal enhancement.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1006 PM CDT Wed Jun 17 2026

Zonal flow will largely persist through much of the long term period, with several ripples of shortwaves moving along the flow during this time. However, the pattern looks to change a bit by midweek, with northwest flow taking hold. At the surface, a remnant boundary will either dissipate or move north of the region on Sunday. Another cold front is then shown to approach the Southeast on Monday, with FROPA through north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee sometime between Monday night and Tuesday. High pressure then builds down into the Tennessee Valley quickly behind the front for midweek.

Overall, expect daily chances of showers and storms, but with higher chances Sunday and Monday (40-80%) and lower chances Tuesday and Wednesday (20-40%). While thunderstorm development is supported due to sufficient instability and bulk shear, guidance suggests midlevel lapse rates mainly between 5-6.5 degC/km. Therefore, confidence is low in any strong to severe storm potential at this point. However, with PWATs between 1.7-2.1 inches Sunday and Monday, these storms will be efficient rainfall producers and bring the threat of heavy rainfall and at least minor flooding (especially with saturated antecedent conditions). Moisture gradually decreases from Tuesday into Wednesday, with a more summertime-like pattern then setting up (diurnal showers/storms).

As for temperatures, highs will generally remain in the mid to upper 80s Sunday through Wednesday. But, lows will gradually decrease from the lower 70s Sunday night to the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday night thanks to FROPA and decreasing moisture.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1202 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

MVFR to IFR ceilings will fluctuate at both terminals as periods of heavy rain and thunder continue to push through north Alabama. Heaviest showers are forecast this afternoon with potential airport impacts captured in the tempo group from 18-22Z. Heaviest showers/storms will likely drop ceilings and visibilities briefly as they move through. There will also be a medium chance of lightning and winds gusts of 25+ MPH among strongest storms. As we get closer to 00z, rain and thunder will begin to end from west to east, with dry conditions in place by 06Z. Unfortunately, MVFR to IFR ceilings look to remain through the night and into the morning tomorrow.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.