textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 352 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

- High chances of light-moderate rain this afternoon and evening.

- Low clouds and light rain/drizzle will continue early Wednesday, perhaps transitioning into snow flurries during the afternoon.

- Dry conditions and a warming trend will follow from Thursday through Monday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 352 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

Current temperatures across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee are generally in the 30s, with a few spots over northeast Alabama in the 20s. Dew point depressions have remained large enough at most locations overnight to keep fog or freezing fog at a minimum. Very light returns can be seen on radar to our west over the ArkLaMiss, but nothing so far for our local area. The CAMs have captured this activity well and concur that rainfall will move into northwest Alabama by early this afternoon then overspread the Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the forecasts remains on track with no major changes needed. Expect a warmer day with highs near the seasonal norm with values in the lower to mid 50s.

Previous Discussion:

In the mid/upper-levels, northwest flow of 50-60 knots will back to the WSW by sunrise as a shortwave trough drops southeastward across the northern Plains and into southern IA/northern MO. A weaker lower-latitude disturbance (responsible for a developing surface low across the southern High Plains earlier today) will shift eastward, eventually becoming absorbed in the flow around the trough to its north. In the lower-levels, a calm-light SSW wind is anticipated for much of the night, as the weakening surface low to our west shifts east-northeastward into the Ozarks, and this (along with a steady increase in the coverage/density of high clouds) should largely prevent concern for development of freezing mist and fog as dewpoints depressions contract. Nevertheless, some patchy freezing fog will be possible in wind- sheltered locations through the early morning hours as temperatures fall into the u20s-l30s.

Over the course of the day, the initial mid-level shortwave trough will track eastward into the OH Valley but should become increasingly sheared as a series of smaller disturbances drop southward across the northern Plains, resulting in gradual amplification of a broader positive-tilt longwave trough to our west. However, deep-layer ascent will strengthen with time (especially as the decaying surface low travels eastward into western portions of the TN Valley tomorrow afternoon), and this will sustain an axis of light-moderate rain that should begin to bring measurable precipitation to the northwestern portion of our CWFA as early as 15-18Z. Rainfall will be most widespread tomorrow afternoon (when a few heavier convective-type showers will also be possible). Due to competing influences from a warmer start to the day/modest warm advection and clouds/precipitation during the afternoon, highs should be comparable to those observed today (l-m 50s).

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday night) Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Latest model guidance suggests that the northwestern/trailing edge of the axis of light-moderate rain will spread southeastward across the region during the evening hours tomorrow. However, as deep-layer ascent continues to increase downstream from the amplifying longwave trough to our west, very low stratus clouds and pockets of light rain or drizzle will likely persist through at least early Wednesday morning as a secondary area of low pressure evolves to the southwest of the initial wave and shifts eastward into east-central AL/west-central GA. This regime may continue for much of the day and even into Wednesday evening (especially across the eastern portion of the forecast area) as the lower tropospheric profile will remain sufficiently moist to support low stratus clouds and very light precipitation. With the depth of a cold airmass entering the region expected to increase with time as the secondary surface low travels slowly eastward across GA, this will support a transition from drizzle to snow flurries, and although POPs are quite low at this point, it is something we will need to monitor for minor accumulations in our eastern counties.

Present indications are that the axis of the longwave trough will shift southeastward across the Lower MS Valley and into the Gulf Coast states on Wednesday night, with the risk for lingering light precipitation ending early Thursday morning. Even with abundant low stratus clouds, temperatures will advectively fall back into the upper teens-lower 20s by Thursday morning and should only recover into the u30s-l40s later in the day with mostly sunny skies. Overnight lows will be several degrees warmer (but still in the l-m 20s) Thursday night as the remnant arctic high drops southward into the northwestern Gulf and southwesterly return flow begins to the south of a developing cold core vortex and surface low in the vicinity of Hudson Bay.

LONG TERM

(Friday through Monday) Issued at 959 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

In the long term portion of the forecast, a warming trend is expected to take place across the TN Valley, as global models suggest that a developing cold core vortex across southern Canada will drop southeastward into the northeastern CONUS keeping another bitterly cold/dry airmass confined to our immediate northeast. That said, any fluctuation in the position of the polar front could potentially have a significant impact on both temperatures and dewpoints (especially in the northeastern corner of the forecast area), but at this point we are predicting highs to remain in the m-u 50s as lows slowly rise into the mid 30s by Monday morning. Although dry northwest flow aloft will exist for much of the period, we will need to monitor Sunday night/Monday for inclusion of perhaps a low POP, as it appears as if low-level warm/moist advection will strengthen during this timeframe to the east of surface pressure falls over the central Plains.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR conditions will continue at the terminals thru the early morning hours. Current thinking is that the combination of increasing clouds aloft and a lgt but persistent SSW wind will inhibit development of patchy FZBR/FZFG invof the airports, but this could certainly occur in wind- protected valleys. SSW flow will increase to 8G16 kts and cloud bases will begin to descend more rapidly from W-to-E btwn 12-18Z, as lgt SHRA overspread the region ahead of a decaying area of low pressure approaching from the west. Precipitation intensity will increase by early aftn (19Z/MSL and 20Z/HSV), before transitioning to lgt DZ by 2-3Z. Regardless, MVFR vsby reductions and IFR cigs have been indicated from this point thru the end of the forecast period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.