textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 844 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

- Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the 95 to 103 degree range today through Friday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Friday afternoon and evening, with localized flash flooding and damaging winds being the primary threats.

- Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are forecast Saturday through Tuesday. Locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding will continue to be a concern during this timeframe.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

High pressure is in control of our sensible weather this morning across the Tennessee Valley, promoting mostly clear and calm conditions. A light SSW/SW breeze will continue to reinforce a very warm, moist air mass as evidence by dewpoints rising into the low to mid 70s. Ample sunshine and these southerly winds will combine to create heat index values in the 97-103 degree range across the area. Caution is urged for those with outdoor plans and heat safety is strongly encouraged! We'll have another break from rain chances today as subsidence from the aforementioned ridge should suppress convection. For this reason, PoPs are generally around 10% or less for the entire area today.

After sunset, any Cu that develops today will quickly dissipate and the result will be a mostly clear and calm night. However, it will still feel quite uncomfortable overnight given the very humid conditions. Dewpoints overnight will hover around 70 degrees and subsequently lows in the low to mid 70s will be common.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday) Issued at 844 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A change in the pattern will occur Friday and Saturday as a mid/upper trough swinging trough the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley will force a weak front SE into the Tennessee Valley during the afternoon and evening hours. Ahead of the front southwesterly flow and sufficient heating will create a very warm, moist, and unstable air mass. Despite morning cloud cover, highs will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s in most locations, with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s, and PWATs around 2". The aforementioned front will serve as a focus for thunderstorms (along with diurnal heating) in the afternoon (40-70% chance). These storms will drift SE/ESE with the front through from mid afternoon to late evening (3 to 9 PM), before waning with the loss of the sun.

The storm environment as alluded to above will become very unstable in the afternoon and favorable for strong to severe thunderstorms during this window. Model soundings exhibit an inverted-V profile (with some drier air in the mid-levels as well). This will create a favorable setup with downbursts and damaging straight-line winds with the strongest storms, especially favoring in progged DCAPE values around 1000-1200 J/kg in the afternoon. Low-level lapse rates of 8-9 C/km, will favor the development of strong updrafts supportive of large hail aloft and assisting in stronger downdrafts as well (giving us additional confidence in a damaging wind threat). Additionally, we'll have plenty of SBCAPE (3000-4000 J/kg) and MLCAPE (2500-3000 J/kg). Corfidi upshear vectors of around 8 kts indicate that some backbuilding of convection is likely and given the very high PWATs and moist soils, localized flash flooding will again be a concern.

The storms will wane by the late evening, with a break in the action occurring Friday night and Saturday morning. A front will stall just south and west of the region early Saturday and will again serve as a focus for convection Saturday afternoon and evening. Morning cloud cover may hinder the thermodynamic environment a little, but it may still favor a few diurnally driven strong to marginally severe storms capable of gusty winds and hail. Given the very high PWATs and slow storm motions will again favor localized flash flooding concerns.

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1025 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

The main concern in the long term period will be the continued and increasing threat for flash flooding as multiple consecutive days of heavy rainfall are forecast. Ridging over the Gulf and zonal flow aloft will become less of an influence on weather locally by early next week as upper troughing begins to dig across the northern Plains and portions of the Midwest. As this happens, a tropical airmass will reside over the Southeastern US as convergent flow increases across the area. Medium to high PoPs will be in place each day through at least Tuesday, peaking during diurnal heating times in the afternoon. As has been the case over the past 24 hours, models continue to drive lower confidence in when the flooding threat will come to an end due to differences regarding when a cold front will push through the area with high pressure to follow. These details should come into better focus over the coming days, but the WPC continues to highlight the threat for excessive rainfall through Sunday with future outlooks likely highlighting the risk through Tuesday. PWATs will range from 2-2.3" with the highest potential on Monday as it stands right now. Steering flow looks a little stronger than this past week, but stronger forcing may result in both stronger and more widespread storms leading to convectively enhanced rainfall rates. Some of these storms could be on the stronger side if better shear is realized, but that seems to be the secondary concern at this time.

With the extra humidity in the air, heat indices will stay in the mid to upper 90s each afternoon through Monday with some relief coming after the front moves through the area Tuesday or Wednesday. Those with interests outdoors will want to keep a close eye on the forecast as we head through the weekend and be prepared for the duel threat of flooding and heat!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

There have been no changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals this forecast period. Clear skies during the early morning hours will transition to partly cloudy by 16Z as strong warming of the locally moist boundary layer results in the formation of sct-bkn Cu in the 3500-6000 ft layer. Skies will become clear once again this evening as the Cu field begins to dissipate around or shortly before sunset. Mid/high-lvl clouds will begin to return after Midnight ahead of a cold front dropping southeastward thru the OH Valley and Ozarks, and although a few SHRA/TSRA could occur in our region prior to 12Z (well ahead of the front), we will not advertise this in the forecast attm. Sfc winds will veer to SW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, and should remain in this range overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.