textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

- Very cold tonight with overnight lows in the upper teens to lower 20s. A warming trend will then begin on Tuesday.

- Low to medium chances of showers Wednesday evening increase to high chances on Thursday, with low chances of thunder late Wednesday night through Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Tuesday) Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Tranquil weather across the Tennessee Valley late this evening, with satellite revealing clear conditions and observational data showing winds have finally begun to relax under 5 kts. Some low stratus was noted across east Tennessee, just to our northeast. While a few of these clouds will clip our far northeastern zone overnight, clear conditions will prevail for most locations most of the night with high pressure at the surface in control. Temperatures will drop off quickly in this dry air mass, with lows eventually bottoming out in the upper Teens to lower 20s. Some welcome news for Tuesday is that winds will veer to the south, helping to modify this air mass. As a result, temperatures will climb back into the lower 50s in most locations by the afternoon underneath a mostly sunny to partly cloudy sky.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Generally zonal flow aloft will evolve by Tuesday night across the Deep South as high pressure slides off the south and east. A shortwave trough will begin to develop along the leeside of the Rockies on Wednesday and shift eastward toward the Tennessee Valley Wednesday night into Thursday. Ahead of this feature, cloud cover will increase steadily across the area late Tuesday night through the day on Wednesday. Despite the cloud cover, southerly flow should help to push high temperatures into the lower 60s by the afternoon.

The aforementioned shortwave will dive SE into the lower Mississippi Valley on Thursday, pulling a cold front into the Mid South and Tennessee Valley. Low-medium (30-60%)chances for rain showers will return to the forecast late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning ahead of the front. More widespread showers and storms (80-90% chance) are forecast during the day on Thursday, as the front finally pushes into the region. More than sufficient bulk shear values of 40-55 kts will support some organized convection, but instability appears to be fairly meager. LREF probs indicate 20-40% of exceeding 100 J/kg of SBCAPE and only around 10-15% chance of exceeding 200 J/kg of SBCAPE. Factoring in the poor lapse rates, any storms that do develop should be pretty limited in magnitude. However, given the aforementioned shear profile, a couple of locally strong storms might not be out of the question.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 958 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

Convection will taper off in wake of the front Thursday evening/night and a drier air mass will filter into the area by Friday morning. However, other than a drop in dewpoints there will be little change to the air mass as we return in a fairly zonal pattern aloft. As a result, a gradual warming trend will take place through the weekend as afternoon highs will reach the low to mid 60s on Friday and the upper 60s to lower 70s both Saturday and Sunday, with southerly flow returning. Low chances for rain will return early next week as a weak shortwave will approach the region from the west.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 618 PM CST Mon Feb 23 2026

VFR/SKC conditions will exist at the MSL/HSV terminals early in the period, along with a NNW wind that will quickly fall into the 5-10 kt range this evening. With strong NW flow aloft expected to continue, a minor increase in the coverage of high-lvl clouds is anticipated by 8Z with bkn-ovc conds developing by 16Z. Although a sfc high shifting southeastward from eastern AR/western TN into the eastern Gulf will induce a period of calm winds btwn 8-16Z, dewpoint depressions should remain too large for development of FZBR/FG (except for a very brief period around 12Z and in the immediate vicinity of large water sources). A SSW wind of 8G16 kts will materialize beyond 16Z as a developing sfc low tracks east- southeastward from southern SK into the northern Great Lakes and the weakening high to our southeast retreats further across the FL peninsula.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.