textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

- After a brief period of dry weather late tonight into Saturday morning, additional rounds of rain and storms are then forecast with medium to high (60-90%) chances Sunday through Tuesday.

- Low chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue Tuesday night-Friday, but storm coverage across our region will depend on the location of a weak stationary front.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 451 AM Sat Jun 20 2026

Some virga can be seen in area radar returns north of a frontal boundary. This frontal boundary stretches from west/central Louisiana NE to near KGWO in Mississippi east through the southern tip of Cullman county in northern Alabama. High clouds over the area (around 10,000 feet and higher) is keeping fog at bay this morning.

Stronger lift associated with a upper level wave pushing east along the frontal boundary and better instability has form along it over east central Texas into northern Louisiana. Models seem to have a decent handle on where this concentrated area of convection is developing so far. Most guidance moves the stronger forcing with the wave along the front to the ESE, so current NBM may be a bit overdone with higher PoP, except near Cullman county and into Colbert, Franklin, Morgan, and Lawrence counties in northern Alabama. In those locations during the late morning hours into the early afternoon hours, medium to high chances of rain (40-70 percent) and low to medium chances of thunderstorms are expected. SHear is very weak though so no organized areas of severe storms are expected. Given SBCAPE though in those areas that could climb to between 2000 and 3000 J/KG, frequent lighting and some heavy downpours could occur. Highs today will be warmer north of this activity (83-86 degrees) while further south highs should mostly be in the lower 80s.

Expect with the better forcing moving further away from the area this evening and the loss of daytime heating, that convection will fall apart.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 451 AM Sat Jun 20 2026

The primary concern in the short term period will be heavy rainfall and subsequent flooding concerns as multiple upper level shortwaves shift eastward across portions of the area. WPC has already highlighted most of our area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall on Monday into Tuesday. Rain chances should peak Monday afternoon (80-90%) and remain high into Tuesday (50-70%), with storm total rainfall forecast to be around 0.75-1.25" during this time frame with higher amounts in areas where thunderstorms train/backbuild. Additionally, storm motion will be relatively slow (~15 kts), which could also contribute to a flash flood risk. If you have outdoor interests this weekend into early next week, we encourage you to check back in for updates as we continue through tomorrow. A threat of strong to marginally severe storms will be another threat Monday into Monday night. Shear increases to between 35 and 45 knots with an upper level disturbance that moves into the area along the front.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 954 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

Extended range model data suggests that a flat mid-level ridge will extend from subtropical portions of the eastern North Pacific eastward across the Gulf and into the central North Atlantic for much of the period. To our north, a longwave trough will remain intact across eastern Canada and adjacent portions of the northern Plains, Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS, with subtle amplification of the broader trough expected at times. This configuration will maintain NW flow aloft of 15-25 knots across the TN Valley, with at least a couple of convectively-enhanced disturbances predicted to strengthen large scale ascent. In the low-levels, an initial surface low will deepen as it lifts northeastward off the coast of New England and into Nova Scotia on Tuesday/Tuesday night, with the southward progression of the trailing cold front into our region expected to be retarded by a weaker surface low diving southeastward into the Upper MS Valley. A moist/unstable but weakly sheared airmass (featuring PWAT values of 1.8-2" and CAPE in the 1500-2000 J/kg range) will exist south of the front and should support numerous thunderstorm clusters on Tuesday that will progress southeastward across the region within prevailing NW flow aloft.

Beginning Tuesday night and continuing through Thursday night, there is a high degree of uncertainty regarding precisely how far south the frontal boundary (and intrusion of drier continental air) will reside, and this will have a large impact on thunderstorm coverage during this timeframe. However, it does appear as if a developing lee cyclone across the southern High Plains will send the front northward once again on Friday, allowing chances for showers and storms to increase once again. Temperatures will change very little over the course of the period, with afternoon highs in the l-m 80s, and overnight lows in the m-u 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

VFR conditions are currently occurring at both terminals with CIGS around 20,000 feet in those locations. Based on model guidance, lower CIGS should develop after 7Z at both terminals in the 850 mb layer. This and current dewpoint depression values should keep fog from developing at the terminals despite light winds. Some showers could impact KMSL around daybreak into the morning hours. However, confidence is not high, so a PROB30 group was included for that activity. Some MVFR CIGS or VSBYS could occur with that activity. Expect winds to become southerly later this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.