textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1017 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

- Another round of light rain is expected late Saturday afternoon and Saturday evening, followed by a cold/dry air mass that will linger through Monday night.

- A warming trend will begin Tuesday, with another chance for showers and thunderstorms on Thursday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 143 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Current satellite and radar show a band of showers and thunderstorms moving NNE through the area. These storms are supported by the passage of several shortwaves along the NW periphery of an upper level ridge centered over the Bahamas. Locally, the passing short waves support bulk shear between 40-50 KTS. This paired with weak elevated instability (~100-200 J/KG) has allowed lightning production to persist within the ongoing showers. Fortunately all storms are elevated with no gusts nor hail reported. Storms are forecast to continue to push NE through the area through sunrise. No significant changes in the thermo profile are forecast, thus general thunderstorms with heavy rainfall and potentially small hail will be the upper limit of storm intensity this morning.

HIRES models maintain rain and storms clearing to the NE around 8 AM as forcing from a front to our south progresses east. In its wake, cloud cover will briefly decrease allowing temps to heat into the low to mid 60s. On a CONUS scale, additional weak mid level waves will ripple east across the county from Saturday into Sunday. Locally, this will increase cloud cover this afternoon and reintroduce low rain chances (10-20%). Any additional precip will be incredibly light with minimal accumulations.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1017 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Deep-layer lift will continue to strengthen across the forecast area on Saturday night/early Sunday morning, as a shortwave trough shifts east-northeastward within the flow around a developing cold core vortex across the Lower Great Lakes. This will occur as the leading edge of a cold, arctic airmass (originating from a 1055-1060 mb anticyclone across the Northwest Territories) begins to enter the region, with light stratiform rain predicted to expand in coverage during the evening hours from the Cumberland Plateau/southern Appalachians southwestward into southern portions of the TN Valley. Precipitation is expected to exit the eastern part of our forecast area by 6Z (if not sooner), and although this will occur shortly before profiles would support a transition to a rain/snow mix, a few flurries may occur early Sunday morning until the postfrontal stratus layer erodes shortly before sunrise. Strong NNW winds will drive overnight low temperatures into the u20s-l30s, with attendant wind chills around 10 degrees colder.

North-northwest winds will remain elevated for an extended period from Sunday through late Monday afternoon as the center of the parent arctic high shifts east-southeastward into western Ontario while a surface low (initially near the coast of NC) undergoes bombogenesis as it lifts northeastward off the Mid-Atlantic coast. Although a couple of small, but well-defined mid-level waves will dig southeastward around an intensifying cold core vortex to our northeast, the local airmass will remain too dry to support precipitation. However, steep lapse rates related to the cold pockets aloft will lead to occasional stratocumulus clouds. Highs will struggle to reach the l-m 40s on Sunday and may not surpass the 35-40F range on Monday (perhaps remaining near freezing atop the Cumberland Plateau). Overnight lows will be in the l-m 20s Sunday night (morning wind chills in the 5-15F range), with calm winds and clear skies Monday night resulting in lows in the upper teens-lower 20s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1017 PM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Latest extended range guidance suggests that broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain intact across central/eastern North America throughout the long term period, with the only feature of interest being a shortwave trough that will travel from the Pacific Northwest into the Canadian Maritime provinces between Tuesday and Friday. As surface high pressure migrates southeastward and away from the region on Tuesday, light SSW return flow will initiate the beginning of a warming trend that will continue until the passage of another cold front (related to the aforementioned shortwave trough) at some point during the day on Thursday. Although low-level moisture return will initially be slow to occur across the southeastern CONUS, a plume of dewpoints in the mid 50s may return northeastward ahead of the cold front, supporting development of a frontal squall line. Instability will likely be limited by preceding clouds and poor lapse rates aloft, but trends in the quality of boundary layer moisture will need to be closely monitored over the coming days as both deep-layer and low- level shear would support organized/severe convection. A slightly cooler/drier airmass will return to the region in the wake of the front to end the work week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 454 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the first half of the TAF period. Around 00Z, a lower MVFR cloud deck will move in along with strong NW winds with gusts up to 19 KTs. A low chance (10-20%) for additional shower exists from 00-04Z. Showers that move directly over the terminals may briefly lower ceilings and visibilities. Ceilings will begin to lift back to VFR near the end of the period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.