textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 355 AM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

- Moderate impacts are expected across far northwest Alabama and minor impacts elsewhere from early this morning through Sunday evening.

- An Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for Lauderdale, Colbert and Franklin counties in NW AL until 6 PM Sunday, with a Winter Weather Advisory in effect elsewhere.

- Dangerously cold temperatures are expected Sunday into Tuesday, with morning wind chills between -5 and 5F.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 355 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

The start of a potentially significant winter weather event was unfolding as we go through the late night. First an overview. A strong surface high pressure system over the Minnesota/Iowa region (with an Arctic origin) with maximum pressure corrected to sea- level of around 1045mb was building eastward. Bitterly cold air from this ridge was filtering southward, plunging temperatures over the Tennessee Valley mostly below freezing, ranging from 23 in Fayetteville to 28 in Vinemont. BUT...a few locations over our more east and south were still above freezing, notably Fort Payne, Scottsboro, Albertville, and Guntersville.

A large swatch of precipitation was moving across the area from the west, denoted well by local and regional radar. As of this writing, the vast majority of it was aloft. A still dry layer below the precip was evaporating it before it reaches the ground. That said, a few spots over NW Alabama, including the Muscle Shoals airport have reported sleet. Just west of our area, freezing rain and some sleet was being observed by automated stations with temperatures in the lower 20s. If this continues, it will obviously stick and result in slippery exposed outdoor surfaces. Even further to the west, snow was falling over parts of western Tennessee.

00Z model guidance has continued a trend of this precipitation overspreading the area as we go into the day. With this system rather wet (with rainfall totals of 2-3" into late Sunday), implications for a significant wintry weather event loom. However, the models continue to show a warmer layer moving in as we go into the late morning and this afternoon. This should result in the wintry precipitation mixing with rain, then becoming all rain in the later afternoon and tonight. Moderate to at times heavy rainfall when this occurs should help mitigate wintry impacts that earlier occurred. The models were continuing a trend of more wintry rather than wet weather over far NW Alabama. This could result in significant icing there and areas more to our north and west should this trend hold.

Staying on a more optimistic warming trend, temperatures for all areas except NW Alabama should rise above freezing by the late afternoon, ranging into the mid 30s to lower 40s. Total liquid rainfall into the late afternoon could range upwards of 1/2 of an inch. With the higher amounts more to our west, colder conditions there warrant careful monitoring for notable wintry weather.

SHORT TERM

(Tonight through Monday) Issued at 924 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

Rain and freezing rain in NW AL will be ongoing at the start of the short term. At the surface, models continue to support the NW progression of the warm nose in addition to warming the entire column above freezing. This will in turn transition the whole area to rain somewhere between 00-03Z on Sunday. Rain looks to continue the whole night, hopefully working to melt any ice accumulations in NW AL. The warm surface air will prevail through the morning with lows likely teetering right around and just above freezing Sunday morning. Rain looks to continue for a majority of the area with two narrow areas of freezing rain possible. The first will again be in NW AL as the rain vs freezing rain line looks to again develop, this time closer to the MS state line. The second area to watch will be NE AL, where CAD from the east my provide a sufficient enough cooling of the column to produce freezing rain. Between those two locations, 90-100% rain chances are forecast. The prolonged high rain chances will raise some flooding concerns with rises on rivers, creeks, and streams likely. While flash flooding is unlikely due to the rain falling over the span of about 24 hours, ponding of water in low lying areas as well as some localized drainage issues will be of concern.

The actual surface low will pass just to our south through the day on Sunday. As the low passes, the warm air will be dragged eastward with it prompting a brief switch back to sleet/snow for the most area from Sunday midday through Sunday evening when precip chances will cease. Behind the surface low, gusty winds are forecast with gusts of 20+ MPH forecast. This will aid in a swift influx of cool dry air from the north from Sunday night into Monday. Temperatures will plunge into the teens come Monday morning. With the gusty winds, apparent temperatures will be near or just below 0 degrees area wide. As such a Cold Weather Advisory will likely be issued in the next two forecast cycles. Of equal importance, the swift entrance of cold air raises concern for black ice development. While gusty winds will aid in drying out the roads, any liquid from significant rainfall on Sunday will freeze overnight creating black ice by Monday morning. While it is hard to pinpoint exactly which locations may be of greatest risk to black ice, it will be important that everyone be mindful of the risk come Monday morning if venturing out. Any ice on the road unfortunately will not be melted naturally from Monday high temperatures as temps won't even make it above 30 degrees. As such, if venturing out on Monday make sure to dress appropriately and be prepared for black ice both in the morning and when returning in the afternoon.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 520 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through around 12Z. After 12Z winter precip will begin to enter the area from the WSW. Currently we have a wintry mix of snow and sleet arriving just after 12Z at MSL and after around 13Z at HSV. Heavier precip will arrive at both terminals after 18Z with MSL likely seeing a switch from SNPL to FZRA between 18-20Z. HSV on the other hand will likely see a switch from SNPL to RA. With the heavier precip, ceilings and visibilities are forecast to drop to low MVFR. The low MVFR conditions and heavier precip are forecast to continue beyond 00Z into the next TAF period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

A wintry mix of FZRA, PL and SN will persist through this morning before changing to RA southeast of KBGF-KHSV line by 18-20Z. Heavy accumulations of ice will occur in northwest AL including KMSL. Ceilings will also deteriorate from VFR to MVFR and IFR as well and will stay IFR through the rest of the period. There is a low to medium chance that FZRA will change to RA at KMSL later tonight (after 07Z), but this remains conditional.

CLIMATE

Issued at 413 PM CST Fri Jan 23 2026

High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures:

The Climate Prediction Center has included the entire Tennessee Valley in a High Risk for Much Below Normal Temperatures between January 31, 2026 through February 1, 2026. Therefore, there is greater than a 60% chance for temperatures below 17-20 degrees F during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ001>003.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for ALZ004>010-016.

TN...Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for TNZ076-096-097.