textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1022 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

- Medium to high chances (40-70%) of showers and thunderstorms continue today and Monday.

- Low chances for strong to severe storms late Monday morning into the early afternoon. Main threats are damaging winds and hail.

- Dry weather finally returns Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 150 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

There have been no significant changes in the forecast since the previous update. Showers and storms have been slower to develop today compared to yesterday, but we have begun to start seeing an uptick in convection. Based on current trends, heavy rainfall appears to be the main concern this afternoon. Storms that have formed are nearly stationary. However, with 2000-3000 J/kg of CAPE based on the SPC mesoanalysis page and pwats over 1.8 inches, wet microbursts are another hazard we are keeping an eye on. As the current storms decay, outflow boundaries that get kicked out will likely develop new storms.

Previous Discussion Another hot and humid day is underway across the Tennessee Valley. Upper level ridging remains in place across most of the southern CONUS with troughing along both the East and West Coasts. Showers have already begun to develop across NW GA this morning. Any outflow boundaries these produce may initiate additional showers later today across NE AL. This afternoon, a shortwave is forecast to push through TN. This should provide additional forcing to develop more widespread showers and thunderstorms. Based on some of the hires model guidance this morning, it appears the better coverage of precip will be for areas along and east of I-65. The good news is that severe storms are not expected given weak deep layer shear. Cannot rule out gusty winds as SBCAPE increases between 1000-2000 J/kg later today. However, the main concern is flooding as pwats once again are between 1.6-1.8 inches. High rain rates (1-2 in/hr) could cause some flash flooding if storms train over the same location.

Showers and storms will gradually fizzle out this evening with the loss of daytime heating. Overnight temperatures will remain mild with lows in the mid to upper 60s forecast. One thing to watch will be for dense fog early tomorrow morning. Dewpoint depressions near zero combined with a very saturated ground make conditions favorable. The biggest uncertainty is will we clear out overnight or will low clouds remain in place. This will be monitored in future forecast updates.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Tuesday) Issued at 1022 AM CDT Sun May 31 2026

As we start the new work week, northwest flow aloft remains dominant over the Southeast. Active weather is typical in this flow regime, especially given the very moist and unstable airmass already in place. On Monday morning, sfc dewpoints will be in the lower 70s with temperatures quickly rising into the mid to upper 80s. This will increase CAPE values over 3000 J/kg and unlike previous days, deep layer shear increases to 30 knots by the late morning/early afternoon. This sets up the potential for severe storms if a lifting mechanism can initiate convection. The feature we will be watching is a MCS that develops late Sunday night/early Monday morning across MO and then rapidly moves SSE towards the local forecast area. The morning CAMs suggest that the MCS will arrive into NW AL by 16-18z and quickly push SSE into central AL by 20-22Z. Confidence in timing is still low as models are having a difficult time in the exact placement the MCS develops to our NW. The main threats with this system are damaging winds (medium confidence) and large hail (low confidence) as mid level lapse rates are around 7 C/km. Tornadoes do not appear likely given a unidirectional shear profile.

Something we will be keeping an eye on is a secondary M3CS that is forecast to develop along a remnant outflow boundary across W TN/E AR. Latest guidance suggests this activity will push southward and remain west of the forecast area. However, if the first MCS moves a bit further east there is at least a low chance of strong to severe storms redeveloping in NW AL.

A pattern change begins starting Tuesday as a drier airmass advects in from the north. For the first time in over a week a dry forecast is expected on Tuesday. Temperatures will rise into the lower 80s by the afternoon. But dewpoints are forecast to fall into the lower 60s Tuesday afternoon and then the upper 50s Tuesday night. A much welcomed change from the 70 degree dewpoints over the last several days.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 926 PM CDT Sat May 30 2026

A strong area of high pressure will build into the Tennessee Valley mid to late week, promoting plenty of sunshine each day and dry, tranquil weather. As a result of ample sunshine each day, highs will reach the 80s, but lows will drop into the upper 50s to low/mid 60s in this drier air mass. The ridge will remain in place largely through the remainder of the week, with the next chance of rain likely arriving late next weekend.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM CDT Sun May 31 2026

Clusters of TSRA will continue through late this evening across northern Alabama. Should a storm impact either terminal, AWWs and amendments will be needed. After storms dissipate after Midnight, a period of dry conditions will allow for VFR conditions overnight. However, another round of TSRA will develop mid/late Monday morning into Monday afternoon and have handled this with a PROB30 for now. Localized MVFR conditions may occur with this activity between 15-21z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.