textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1015 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

- High chances of showers and thunderstorms tonight into Tuesday, with 1-2" of rainfall accumulation through Tuesday evening.

- A low chance of severe thunderstorms (Marginal Risk from SPC or 1 out of 5) is forecast late Tuesday morning through mid Tuesday afternoon just ahead of a cold front. Localized damaging winds and a tornado are the primary threats.

- Cooler temperatures moving in late this week (on and around Thanksgiving), with highs in the upper 40s to lower 50s Thursday and Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 150 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Cloud cover is gradually increasing across the Tennessee Valley from west to east ahead of a trough of low pressure and its associated cold front. This will likely put a cap on heating for the day, with temperatures remaining in the mid 70s for the remainder of the day. Gulf moisture will continue increase across the area this evening and overnight as evidenced by dewpoints climbing to near 60 degrees and PWATs increasing to around 1.2" by early Tuesday morning (about 85-90th percentile for November 25th per SPC Sounding Climatology).

As noted in the previous discussion, broad upper-level lift ahead of the trough and a 40-50 kt LLJ pivoting northward into the region late tonight will result in a broad area of rain showers with embedded elevated thunderstorms. Some of these storms may take on an organized appearance given the strong bulk shear values, but guidance indicates a strong inversion with over 100 J/Kg of CINH and no SBCAPE. This would result in a low-end gusty wind threat, but little else other than locally heavy downpours and lightning. Overall, very high confidence in locally heavy rainfall and elevated thunderstorms, but very low confidence in anything becoming severe (or even strong) due to the aforementioned limiting factors through 12z.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 1004 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

The aforementioned LLJ will continue to push north and east through the region through the mid to late morning hours, before pivoting into the central Appalachians by 18z. Exiting with it will be the initial broad cluster of showers and elevated thunderstorms that will be moving into TN/GA. The vertical wind profile will become more veered with hodographs becoming a bit more straight in wake of this feature. Our attention will turn to the surface cold itself and an additional convection that can develop along it from the late morning though the early/mid afternoon (11 AM to 3 PM timeframe). As it stands right now, the front will be approaching the I-65 corridor around 18z and exiting the area to the south and east around 21z. This may mean that it will be very tough to become surface-based across northwest Alabama before the front has passed and subsequently the severe threat may end up being very low there.

The areas we'll have to watch will be in a very narrow window during the early/mid afternoon along and east of I-65 where some modest instability will develop/advect in from the south just ahead of the cold front. This would support a marginal, conditional threat of severe thunderstorms -- with SBCAPE values around 300-500 J/kg evolving during this window, especially in our northeastern Alabama counties. With plenty of wind shear (bulk shear ~ 50 kts and 0-1 km shear ~25-30 kts), organized convection is likely with supercell structures and organized line segments being the most likely storm mode. More unidirectional flow would favor localized damaging winds being the main concern, but any right movers will need to be watch for a tornado threat. The severe threat will come to an end quickly by 21-22z in the east with decreasing chances for rain showers through the evening in wake of the front. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1-2" are forecast across the region -- but given how dry we've been of late, don't expect much in the way of flooding concerns with this activity.

A drier, but much cooler day on Wednesday with northerly flow reinforcing the cooler, drier air mass. High temperatures will struggle to climb above 60 degrees, with cloud finally dispersing late in the day. This will setup quite the air mass shift for Thanksgiving and the later part of the week.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 749 PM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Thanksgiving Day will feature dry and cooler temperatures as an upper trough axis shifts east over the local area and our flow aloft turns to the northwest. High pressure at the sfc will dig across portions of the Midwest and into the OH River Valley and sunny/clear skies will persist through the holiday. Aside from slightly colder temperatures, it should be beautiful weather for any outdoor plans as northwest winds remain light. Temperatures Thursday night will drop below freezing so be sure to layer up if headed outdoors Thanksgiving night into Friday morning. Dry conditions and similar temperatures are forecast for Black Friday with a slight increase in clouds as moisture increases slightly from the northwest. Temperatures will begin to warm slightly over the weekend as an approaching shortwave and high pressure building over the Gulf turns our flow back to the southwest. Low chances for rain will return to northwest AL Saturday afternoon increasing to medium chances area wide on Sunday. We will have to monitor trends on this next system, but for now heavy rain looks like it will be the biggest threat with no strong signal for severe storms at this time.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

VFR conditions are forecast to persist through at least the early overnight hours as an approaching storm system brings an uptick in S/SE winds and rain chances after midnight. The exact timing of the line of storms is still a bit uncertain but seems unlikely to impact either terminal before 08z. Reductions to MVFR or periods of IFR conditions will be likely during heavier showers/storms as well as a low potential for wind gusts up to 50kts if severe storms were to occur. IFR to MVFR cigs will be likely until late tomorrow afternoon when a cold front moves through the area followed by westerly winds and improving conditions.

CLIMATE

Issued at 545 PM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Moderate Risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation:

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee in a Moderate risk for Much Above Normal Precipitation for December 2nd. Precipitation exceeding 1.5 inches is possible during this period.

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.