textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1128 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase from 20-50% today and tonight to 40-60% by Saturday afternoon. Lightning and brief heavy rainfall will be the main impacts from the storms.

- A fairly widespread coverage of rain (and some embedded thunderstorms) is expected from early Sunday morning through much of the day. The risk for flash and areal flooding will be greatest during this period.

- A cold front will usher a drier airmass into the region early Monday morning, which will remain in place for the rest of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 159 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

A large area of rain and some thunderstorms continue to push northeast over eastern Arkansas/NW Mississippi into western Tennessee still at 2 PM. It has had a hard time moving east into NW Alabama so far this afternoon.

Most mesoscale guidance does have a fairly good handle on this activity and move it into NW Alabama and our southern middle Tennessee counties between 5 and 7 PM this afternoon. Most guidance keeps the bulk of it just affecting western parts of that area through 7 PM.

PWATS are already between 1.5 (7 AM OHX sounding) and 1.8 (7 AM BMX sounding) inches. Some elevated CAPE up to 500 J/kg is seen in both soundings. With a good amount of heating expected much of the day, expect this instability to become surface based and increase along with low level lapse rates. However, shear remains very weak in forecast guidance. Expect some thunderstorms could develop, but should remain fairly weak overall. DCAPE values approach 600 J/KG...but instability looks a bit too weak to realize stronger thunderstorm microbursts even.

Most CAMS tend to decrease the coverage of showers and thunderstorms this evening as we lose daytime heating. This makes sense given how weak the overall forcing will be aloft. That being said, some isolated to scattered chances of showers or thunderstorms could linger into the early evening hours. Lows should remain warm due to the moist low level moisture advected into the area. Temperatures look to only drop into the 65 to 70 degree range on Saturday morning.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

The front in much of the guidance shifts the surface front associated with the weakening longwave trough axis into portions of NW Alabama Saturday morning. CAPE looks a bit higher on Saturday afternoon, due to higher dewpoints over the area and morning sunshine. Again, very little shear to speak of. DCAPE looks maybe a bit higher on Saturday afternoon maybe climbing to between 500 and 800 J/KG. However, again SBCAPE does not look impressive enough to warrant stronger thunderstorm development. PWATS will be very high, so the heavier rainfall threat seems to be more in play later in the day on Saturday as a re-enforcing longwave trough axis swings southeast into the Tennessee Valley. Highs should be cooler only reaching the lower to mid 80s and heat index much more tolerable due to the effects of increased cloud cover and afternoon precipitation.

The stronger forcing aloft with the amplifying longwave trough axis really kicks in late Saturday night into Sunday. Lows should remain very low dropping only into the 65 to 70 degree range again. With high PWATS around 2.00 inches or higher, some heavier rainfall due to training could occur. WPC has issued a day 3 slight excessive rainfall outlook (level 2 out of 4) for possible flooding concerns Sunday morning through the evening hours on Monday. Confidence is low in the flooding potential given the best forcing should near and south of the Birmingham, AL area closer to the surface low over southeastern Louisiana. Highs on Sunday should be notably cooler, only climbing into the 75 to 80 degree range mainly.

Expect scattered showers could linger into the evening hours on Sunday, but drier air near and to the west of the trough axis may limit this potential.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1127 PM CDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Global models suggest that a reinforcing surface high will shift eastward from the Upper MS Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region on Monday and Tuesday, with moderate N-NE flow veering to the SE as pressures begin to rise to the east of the central/southern Appalachians. Although a temporary increase in clouds (and perhaps a few light showers) may occur at the onset of this regime on Tuesday, a drier airmass will likely return from the east for the last couple of days of the forecast period. Afternoon highs will remain in the u70s-m80s, with overnight lows in the m40s-l50s.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1221 PM CDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Prevailing VFR conditions are forecast at KHSV through 10Z and at KMSL through 14Z. There is a low chance of a SHRA or TSRA this afternoon through Saturday morning, but higher confidence exists in northwest AL including KMSL from 21-23Z. Otherwise, scattered to broken layers at or above 040agl are expected.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.