textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Saturday, due to afternoon heat index values of 105-109F.

- After a slightly lower coverage of precipitation on Saturday, chances for afternoon/evening showers and storms will increase to 40-80% from Sunday-Friday (highest on Monday).

NEAR TERM

(This Evening through Saturday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

A mid-level high (initially centered across VA/NC) will shift eastward and gradually weaken over the course of the near term period, leaving a broad region of weak steering currents aloft between this anticyclone and a separate subtropical ridge positioned over the southern Rockies. Embedded within this regime, an MCV generated by widespread convection across the TN Valley earlier today will drift slowly northwestward, and may initiate redevelopment of scattered showers and thunderstorms from central MS northward into western TN (and perhaps northwest AL) in the 10-12Z timeframe. However, with most convection-allowing model guidance suggesting that this activity will remain to our west, we will advertise dry conditions for most of the forecast area and include only a low (10-20%) POP in the northwest. With a rain- cooled airmass in place, lows will be in the l-m 70s, and development of patchy fog is expected to occur as convective debris clouds dissipate and light northeast winds subside.

Latest model data suggests that there will be a general absence of synoptic scale forcing for ascent across the local forecast area tomorrow, as the departing MCV will likely focus the greatest concentration of afternoon convection to our north and west. Although a few showers and thunderstorms (from the regime discussed in the previous paragraph) may impact northwest AL during the late morning hours, we expect dry conditions for the majority of the region (with the exception of a few late afternoon showers/storms in the higher terrain of northeast AL/southern Middle TN). Due to a lower coverage of precipitation and mostly sunny skies during the afternoon, highs will once again reach the l-m 90s with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect until 7 PM due to apparent temps of 105-109F.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

During the timeframe from Saturday night-Monday night, a subtropical ridge (centered off the southeastern Atlantic Coast) will begin to expand westward into the eastern Gulf as an amplifying northern stream wave digs southeastward over the Upper MS Valley/Great Lakes before turning eastward across southern OT/QC. This, along with the position of a low-level ridge across the central Gulf, will allow light deep-layer southwesterly flow to return to the region, sustaining PWAT values near or slightly above 2".

As this pattern begins to unfold, a small complex of thunderstorms (originating to our northwest) may spread southeastward across the region Saturday evening, propagated by convective outflow. Although redevelopment of additional showers in its wake (early Sunday morning) appears unlikely, convection should form to our north late Sunday morning in the vicinity of a weak cold front attached to a surface low tracking slowly eastward across IL/IN/OH. Within the very moist and moderately unstable airmass across our region, additional outflow-initiated thunderstorms are likely to develop on Sunday afternoon and evening, with a gradual decrease in coverage/intensity expected early Monday morning. A similar scenario will likely unfold on Monday and Monday night, as the frontal confluence axis will remain positioned well to our northwest. Regarding storm impacts, forecast soundings still depict a gradual decrease in CAPE as we progress into Monday, largely as a result of moistening profiles aloft. However, depending on the degree of morning cloud cover each day, boundary layer lapse rates may steepen sufficiently to support a risk for strong wind gusts in addition to frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Afternoon highs will fall back into the u80s-l90s by Monday, with overnight lows remaining in the l-m 70s.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The warm and humid airmass will continue into next week as an upper trough axis exits to the east and upper ridging builds over the area toward the mid-late week period. Fortunately this ridge looks to be a little weaker therefore temps and heat indices won't be quite as hot as we have seen this past week. An axis of higher moisture will be positioned over the TN Valley over much of the long term period and will lead to medium chances (40-60%) for rain and thunderstorms each day, peaking during the afternoon hours. PWATS will climb back to the 2-2.2" range and will bring an increased risk for localized flooding, especially over areas that receive consecutive days of heavy rainfall. For now, organized severe weather is not anticipated but some thunderstorms could be strong to marginally severe given afternoon instability. Daily highs will top out in the upper 80s/lower 90s with heat indices reaching the mid 90s to low 100s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1245 AM CDT Sat Jul 4 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as VFR conds will continue thru the early morning hours (aside from brief MVFR vsby reductions in lgt BR/FG btwn 8-12Z). At this point, coverage of SHRA/TSRA tomorrow appears as if it will be greatest to the north/west of our forecast area, and we will not mention convection in the TAFs. However, there are indications that a small complex of TSRA may evolve to our northwest late tomorrow aftn and spread southeastward during the evening, warranting PROB30 groups for convective impacts from 2-6Z. Sfc winds will remain lgt/vrbl overnight before a lgt SW flow becomes established throughout the day.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096-097.