textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CDT Wed Apr 30 2026

- Medium to high chances of rain tonight. Rainfall totals between 0.25" to 0.5" are forecast.

- A much cooler air mass will arrive this weekend, with daytime highs in the mid to upper 60s and overnight lows in the upper 30s/40s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Fairly widespread cloud cover above 15,000 feet has pushed north over much of northern Alabama and into portions of southern middle Tennessee. The below normal temperatures continue this morning with temperatures currently in the mid to upper 50s. Most guidance shows (including meso-scale models) cloud cover holding on near and south of the Tennessee River for sure.

A pre-frontal trough axis can be seen in surface analysis extending southwest through the western portions of the Ohio Valley. Overunning from the stalled frontal boundary extending west to east through the northern Gulf of America is producing the cloud cover over the area.

The pre-frontal trough axis pushes east through the day. At the same time, a surface low develops along the western edge of the stalled front over the northern Gulf of America. As this moves ENE along the front, the front begins to move to the north this afternoon into tonight. However, how far north this goes will be limited by the progression of the drier air behind this pre- frontal trough axis as it moves east. Newest guidance seems to further limit the northward progression from previous runs.

Either way, not expecting rain to push into northern Alabama until this evening at the earliest (likely later in the evening). There may be some breaks in cloud cover north of the Tennessee River into southern middle Tennessee, as the drier air aloft along and behind the pref-rontal trough axis push into those areas. This could push highs a tad higher there into the 71 to 74 degree range. Further south, in more persistent cloud cover, highs will likely be more in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

Timing and amount of rainfall expected south of the Tennessee River tonight has dropped with new guidance as well. Newest guidance shows only up to 0.3 inches of rain in mainly Cullman county, AL (heaviest amounts further south).

SHORT TERM

(Saturday through Monday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

Trending towards new guidance in this forecast update. Models push this rain east of the area between 3 and 5 AM, also a bit earlier exiting the area. Even stronger cold air advection is shown behind this front on Saturday. Expect clearing behind the front between 7 AM and 10 AM mostly on Saturday morning. Southern middle Tennessee may see some afternoon redevelopment of cloud cover and maybe isolated showers with the southwestern edge of an upper low trailing behind the front. With dominant cold air advection, despite sunshine returning, highs will be well below normal, only reaching the 65 to 68 degree range mostly. Southern Tennessee may be a bit cooler due to cloud cover, only climbing into the lower to mid 60s.

Winds should drop off Saturday night and become light and variable as a large area of high pressure builds into the area. This will be a good radiational cooling setup. However, at this time, models don't show really low dewpoints advecting into the area. This looks reasonable based on upstream dewpoints (but will need to monitor for lower dewpoint advection). The main reason to watch this is for lows on Saturday night. If we have advection of dewpoints in the 33 to 38 degree range over more of the area into northern Alabama, frost potential may be a concern. However, right now, too much guidance does not show this occurring. It will be very cool for this time of year regardless. It looks like lows should drop into the 38 to 43 degree range mainly, keeping frost concerns at bay.

High pressure will remain in control of sensible weather on Sunday. We will still be in fairly amplified NW flow aloft on Sunday. So, weaker but still strong cold air advection will continue. With a bit more sunshine, expect highs to reach the upper 60s to lower 70s across northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee.

From Sunday night into Monday morning not much changes, except upper level flow becomes zonal again. We should see more moisture advection and warmer return flow around the backside of the surface high begin returning to the area. East of I-65, temperatures will still drop into the 40 to 45 degree range one more night. Further west, lows should only drop into the lower 50s.

On Monday, southwesterly low level flow re-establishes itself. Abundant sunshine is expected though some partly cloudy conditions may occur. This combination should allow highs to climb back to near normal values into the 75 to 80 degree range.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1053 AM CDT Fri May 1 2026

By Monday night into Tuesday morning, a very strong and large upper low and its associated longwave trough axis digs southeast from central Canada into the eastern Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. This extends WSW into the Central Plains as well. Strong warm air advection is expected ahead of this, but cloud cover will increase significantly Tuesday late morning and into the afternoon hours. Despite stronger warm air advection, highs will likely remain about the same or slightly lower due to the reduction in insolation. For now, have kept NBM highs in the mid to upper 70s.

Enough forcing and deep enough moisture may sink far enough south by late Tuesday afternoon for a few showers to develop in NW Alabama. The more persistent and better coverage of rain looks to occur Tuesday night as the front moves closer to the area. 30 to 40 knots of shear does develop ahead of the front. However, SBCAPE is not really shown in most guidance.

This front seems to slow down and stall over central and northern Alabama during the day on Wednesday. As another longwave trough axis rotates around the parent upper low now over SE Canada, a stronger low and mid level jet develops that pushes southeast Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening and pushes east through the Ohio Valley.

This should re-envigorate the frontal boundary over the area. Much stronger shear is shown in most guidance over the southeast as this occurs. SBCAPE values climb to between 500 and 1200 J/KG. Lapse rates are fairly steep as well, more then 6.5 degrees/km. Thus, we may see some strong to severe thunderstorm activity develop on Wednesday into Wednesday evening.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 PM CDT Fri May 1 2026

VFR conditions are expected through much of the TAF period. A PROB30 between 5Z and 8Z was included at the terminals for the low possibility of -SHRA dropping CIGS or VSBYS to MVFR level later tonight. Otherwise, northerly winds between 5 and 10 knots are expected.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.