textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Gradual warming trend is forecast early next week, with highs reaching the mid 60s to lower 70s by Wednesday

- Monitoring a system forecast to bring low-medium rain and thunderstorm chances (30-60%) late next week. Some stronger storms could be possible on Friday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 403 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Dry northwest flow aloft of 35-45 knots will prevail across the local forecast area today, as our region remains immediately downstream from an amplified longwave ridge extending from southern Mexico into the Canadian Prairie provinces. At the surface, a high (representing the center of a Canadian airmass) will become established across the Mid-MS Valley by 12Z before shifting eastward into eastern OH/western PA by late this afternoon. This will translate to a continuation of light northerly flow this morning before winds veer to NE after sunrise. The combination of clear skies and contracting dewpoint depressions will support development of light mist and fog (mainly in wind-sheltered locations) through shortly after sunrise as temps reach predicted lows in the l-m 30s. Abundant sunshine early today will allow highs to reach the m-u 50s before the coverage of high-level clouds increases late this afternoon.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

Expect winds to decouple in the evening. This may allow for more patchy fog formation tomorrow evening.

As a weak frontal boundary and embedded disturbance aloft move east from the Northern Plains Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening, low level winds should pick up though from the southwest overnight. This could produce enough boundary layer winds to keep winds fog from becoming to widespread or dense.

The surface high does shift eastward some, but slowly and remains entrenched over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic early next week. This will really weaken the front and associated upper level disturbance moving into it significantly in the northeast. In fact, most guidance produces little precipitation along and ahead of it. The models continue to stall the afore-mentioned front over the Ohio Valley extending back to the west into Missouri and Iowa Monday afternoon. Southwesterly flow continues to strengthen and this should help warm temperatures into the lower to mid 60s by Monday afternoon and into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday afternoon. Sunny skies are primarily expected during this period.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 1044 PM CST Sat Jan 3 2026

As another stronger upper low moves east from the Northern Plains into the Great Lakes region towards the middle of next week, the surface high does shift a bit further east, but does not allow the disturbance to amplify further southward much. A weak prefrontal trough axis may focus just enough moisture along it for a few sprinkles or very light rain Tuesday afternoon over northeastern ALabama northeastward along the front through Wednesday morning. However, this may be overdone.

The surface high builds back to the north Wednesday into Thursday as the upper low moves north of the building surface high off the coast of Canada. This area of high pressure and return flow off the Gulf coast should help to further warm temperatures. Highs by Wednesday and Thursday should climb into at least the upper 60s to lower 70s with lows warming into the 50s and 60s. Models move a weak warm front northward from central Alabama Wednesday night into Thursday. Some upper level forcing and maybe just enough moisture may be in place for some light showers to develop near and north of it. Very low coverage is expected.

During the day on Thursday, a strong upper level disturbance ejects NE from the Texas. Model show alot of shear associated and ahead of this feature. The models continue to mainly move this feature and its better shear/forcing from Texas into Arkansas and toward the Ohio Valley. This should keep strong to severe thunderstorm activity well to our northwest and north.

However, as the southern extent of the front associated with this disturbance moves pushes into northern Mississippi, not sure how much forcing and instability will be in place over northern Alabama before we lose the instability in the evening.

However, we will have to watch during the day on Friday, with ample shear and strong helicity remaining in place, models do bring another shot of instability northward during the day. This could coincide with when the front movers through the area. Models differ on forcing though, with much weaker forcing shown by some models during the day and others showing very strong forcing moving through. If we have strong forcing, we will likely see at least some strong storms and maybe the potential for severe storms as well.

Friday night should bring some colder and drier air back into the area again, but nothing too cold.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Although clear skies and narrow dewpoint depressions have promoted the development of BR/FG in a few sheltered locations across the forecast area, this has not yet occurred at the HSV/MSL terminals. However, we will continue to monitor vsby trends and amend the forecast as warranted. Otherwise, VFR conditions will persist today and tonight, with an increasing coverage of Ci late this aftn before partial clearing takes place prior to 12Z Monday. Should this occur, conditions will once again favor formation of patchy BR/FG before the end of the TAF period. Lgt northerly sfc winds will veer to NE today, before becoming lgt/vrbl overnight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.