textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 930 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

- Chances for thunderstorms will increase on Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons, with coverage remaining highest in the east. Rain chances increase from 20-60% Tuesday to 20-80% on Wednesday. Lightning and heavy rainfall will be the greatest impacts from the storms.

- After slightly lower rain chances (20-40%) on Thursday and Friday, shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase to 30-60% Saturday-Monday.

- NWS Heat Risk highlights Moderate (Level 2 of 4) heat impacts across the Tennessee Valley beginning late this week (Thursday- Monday).

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 336 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026

The previous discussion remains on track as low pressure remains over the southeastern U.S., bringing low-medium chances of showers along and east of I-65 this afternoon. Coverage should be more widespread than yesterday along with a higher lightning and wind threat (in addition to the continued heavy rainfall threat). Model soundings show ample low level shear in addition to DCAPE over 1000 J/kg. The heavy rain threat will be fueled by slow storm motion (less than 10 kts) in addition to PWATs in the 1.7-1.9" range. If you happen to be someone who sees rain this afternoon, be sure to use caution if out on the roadways as ponding of water is likely to cause hazardous driving conditions. Otherwise, highs are still forecast to warm into the mid to upper 80s under mostly cloudy skies.

Previous Discussion: At the surface and aloft, an area of low pressure was situated over western Georgia. Under it's cyclonic flow (from the NNE across the Tennessee Valley), a series of upper level systems were moving around the low. These passing disturbance were bringing periods of showers across portions of the area, mainly east of I-65. These surface based showers have dissipated with a loss of daytime heating produced instability. Despite the passage of a cold front the other day to our east, plenty of precipitable water remained, ranging from 1.2" to 1.3" west, to 1.7" east. Given that upwards of 1/2" of rain had fallen, night time skies becoming partly cloudy and light winds, a development of fog could occur in the late night through daybreak Tue. Fog formation would be more probable in/near areas that received wetting rains. Low temperatures otherwise should cool into the upper 60s.

Through Tue/Wed, the aformentioned low will meander over the GA/SC region, before gradually weakening and moving more to the east as we go into latter portion of the week. Given the mean northerly flow rounding this low bringing more upper level support across the area, daytime heating and resultant instability will result in more chances of showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon. The higher rain chances will be more to the east. The main hazards posed by the stronger storms will include heavy downpours, strong outflow wind gusts, and frequent lightning. The presence of the low (lower heights) and clouds should make for another "cool" early Aug, with highs in the mid/upper 80s. Normal highs this time of year are in the lower 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday night through Thursday) Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Shower activity that occurs Tue should fade as we go into the evening, in a similar manner that we had today. Depending upon how much and where wetting rainfall (greater than 1/10"), patchy fog formation cannot be ruled out late Tue night. Low temperatures should cool to near seasonable norms in the lower 70s. Moisture associated with the low pressure to our east will remain as we go into Wed. The low should finally become diffuse as surface high pressure over the NW Atlantic basin helps return a southerly flow across the Valley. This and slightly warmer temperatures (highs from the mid/upper 80s to around 90), and the available moisture will bring chances of showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Convection coverage will be more prevalent east with lesser chances west. Showers again should end Wed evening, with muggy conditions as lows only fall into the lower 70s. A tad warmer Thu as a deep southerly flow becomes more established. Highs should rise from the upper 80s east to lower 90s west, with heat indexes from the mid 90s to around 100 degrees. At the moment, we'll keep chance of showers/thunderstorms mainly for our eastern areas Thu.

LONG TERM

(Thursday night through Monday) Issued at 930 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

Thursday night will have seasonable lows around 70 degrees under partly cloudy skies. On Friday, the ridge to our west will expand and provide an increase in heat concerns that will persist through the weekend. Otherwise, there's a low to medium chances (20-40%) for diurnal showers and thunderstorms with the greatest coverage east of I-65. This weekend, moisture will wrap around the western side of the subtropical ridge out in the Atlantic and bring an increase in rainfall, low to medium (30-60%) chances Saturday through Monday. Highest coverage will again be east of I-65. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s Friday through Monday but heat index values will push above 100 degrees. At this time, values remain just below Heat Advisory criteria however trends will be monitored. Regardless, practice heat safety!

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1144 PM CDT Mon Aug 3 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the TAF period. However, a low chance of showers exists at KHSV Tuesday afternoon through the evening which has been added as a PROB30 group. Additionally, a low chance of patchy fog exists tonight, but confidence is too low to include this in the official TAF package.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.