textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

- A significant warming trend will take place this weekend into early next week as daytime highs will climb into the lower 90s each day.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 233 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Fairly tranquil night with clear skies and light winds have allowed temps to cool into the 50s for most of the area. Aside from some passing mid level clouds, benign weather will prevail through sunrise.

Todays weather focal point will be a a deepening upper level low, moving through the Great Lakes region. Its associated surface cold front will sink through the TN Valley this afternoon. Ahead of this, surface high pressure along the southern Atlantic coast will keep skies clear allowing temps to heat into the low 80s for most of the area. The front looks to move through from around 2 PM - 8 PM. The passing front will provide just enough lift for some light showers with best chances for areas east of I-65. Models are consistent in showing showers, yet the coverage will be very modest with best chances around 25% in NE AL. The more widespread evidence of the frontal passage will be via the increase in wind speeds as winds back to the NW behind the front. Through the afternoon gusts of around 15-20 MPH will be possible.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

This next upper system will deepen as if moves over upstate New York on Thursday, and induce more troughing across the eastern portion of the Continent as we close out the work week. High pressure following the front will build over this area from the NW on Thursday. The coldest air with this system should be felt more from the Mid Atlantic and northward. But enough of it filtering southward will bring cooler temperatures across the Tennessee Valley, with Wednesday night lows around 50 areawide. A cooler trend will continue Thursday with highs only in the low/mid 70s, and lows in the night from the mid 40s east to around 50 west.

The surface high should quickly build east of the area late Thursday into Friday. Winds will become more from the south as we go into Friday. This along with more sun than clouds should help temperatures warm into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Not as chilly Friday night with lows ranging from the mid 50s east to lower 60s west. All in all, dry weather is expected for the short term.

LONG TERM

(Saturday through Tuesday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Upper ridging will largely maintain its hold over the region through the weekend; although a few shortwaves will ripple along the flow during this time. Model guidance indicates that PWAT values will be between 1.0-1.3 inches Saturday morning but decrease to under an inch through the weekend. Ultimately, confidence is low whether the aforementioned shortwaves and moisture will be enough to incite any shower or storm activity on Saturday. Currently, there are low chances of showers/storms, mainly over southern middle Tennessee on Saturday. Otherwise, expect dry conditions until a more prominent upper shortwave pivots from the central Plains over the Midwest Monday into Tuesday. In addition, a low pressure system looks to slide from the Great Lakes region into into eastern Canada by Tuesday. A trailing cold front from this low is expected to advance towards the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Furthermore, with return flow ushering in ample moisture early next week, guidance suggests that PWATs will jump to between 1.5-1.7 inches or so by Tuesday. Comparing this with BMX Sounding Climatology, these values are at or just over the 90th percentile for the day. Therefore, there will be much more moisture and lift, leading to the better chance at any showers or storms for the Long Term period (albeit still low at this point). Ultimately, there remains a fair bit of model disagreement and therefore low confidence, with this being at the tail end of the forecast time frame. However, we'll continue to monitor trends over the coming days.

We'll be watching temperatures throughout the weekend and early next week as well, since some models indicate that highs will reach at least the mid to upper 80s each day from Saturday through early next week. Our forecast actually calls for slightly higher temperatures by early next week (in the lower 90s). Even so, both sets of values are above the seasonal norms for this time of year (lower 80s for both Muscle Shoals and Huntsville from May 16th through the 20th). Additionally, NWS HeatRisk increases to level 2 of 5 (Moderate) for many locations by Monday/Tuesday, with wet bulb globe temperatures in the lower 80s (level 2 of 5; Moderate Threat). Thus, it's important to remember and practice heat safety! This is imperative not only for those that have outdoor activities such as children, but also for those that work outside such as construction workers. Make sure to drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade! Don't leave children or pets in vehicles!

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 537 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Light southerly winds will be present at the start of the period. From about 18Z-00Z a cold front will pass and prompt winds to back to the NW. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of the TAF period at both terminals.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.