textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

- Low chances of showers and thunderstorms Thursday climb to medium chances Friday and Saturday. - Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday before gradually warming this weekend. - Heat Risk will reach the moderate category over the weekend. Heat index values are forecast to peak in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 331 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

Tranquil conditions are ongoing this morning across the Tennessee Valley. There are some mid level clouds overhead, but for the most part a lot of observation sites are showing clear skies. Calm winds and dewpoint depressions below 1 degree, combined with a moist sfc from all the recent rain, we cannot rule out some patchy fog come sunrise this morning. Do not expect it to become widespread and will quickly mix out. The low that has been producing showers and storms the last few days is now well off to our west. As a result, only low chances (20-40%) of showers and storms this afternoon. Current thinking is that coverage will be quite minimal given the lack of stronger lift across the area. Overall, a hot and humid summer afternoon is expected with afternoon highs in the upper 80s with max heat index values in the mid to upper 90s.

SHORT TERM

(Thursday Night through Saturday night) Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Meanwhile, multiple models show an MCV developing over GA resulting from ongoing convection along an existing shear axis. The models shows this MCV shift slowly west into western GA on Thursday afternoon with an inverted trough axis extending into the TN Valley. This pivots further west on Friday, increasing the chances of showers and thunderstorms. A wave also develops in the northeastern Gulf which may influence this trough axis to move further south and southwest Saturday. In either case, low to medium shower and thunderstorm chances exist Friday into Saturday, with highest chances across the eastern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will remain consistent, with highs in the upper 80s to around 90 and lows in the lower 70s.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 941 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

A deep upper low pressure system over eastern Canada this weekend will slowly weaken as we go into the new week. The presence of the low will in part induce mean troughing along the eastern seaboard from Sunday through the middle of next week. A broad area of surface low pressure should be situated over the southeast region over the weekend. This will create unsettled weather across the Tennessee Valley to start the new week. Moisture associated with an area of low pressure over the SE will bring scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm chances on Sun. The higher rain chances will be more to the east, with lesser shower coverage to the west. With a mix of sun and clouds, seasonably warm or hot conditions are expected Sun, with highs from the upper 80s east to lower 90s west, and heat index values from the upper 90s to 104 degrees in a few spots.

The SE area of low pressure should weaken as we go into Mon, along with mean east coast troughing moving a bit more to the east. This will help return mainly drier conditions to the area for Mon-Wed. Under partly cloudy conditions, high temperatures for this period should range mostly in the lower 90s, with some mid 90s on Tue. Heat index values should range from the upper 90s to 104 for the Mon-Wed timeframe. The heat could become an issue on Tue, with an area around greater Huntsville rising into the 105-106 degree. This period is too far out to consider Heat Advisory this issuance, but something to keep in mind for next week. Rather warm low temperatures are expected in the period, in the low/mid 70s. A return of deeper moisture could bring low end chances of showers and thunderstorms Wed afternoon.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 540 AM CDT Thu Jul 16 2026

VFR conditions are forecast to prevail today with light westerly winds. There is a low chance this afternoon of isolated thunderstorms. Confidence is low in coverage and therefore they may miss the terminals completely. Included it within a prob 30 group given the low confidence.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.