textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1042 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

- A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 9 AM Thursday.

- Gusty winds will arrive on Thursday ahead of an approaching front with gusts of 20-25 MPH forecast.

- High rain chances will be present Friday through Saturday with a risk for flash flooding and a low risk for severe weather.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 409 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

A well-defined mid-level shortwave trough (initially across northwest Mexico) will begin to take on a negative tilt as it reaches the southern High Plains by 12Z. In response to this, a surface low continues to deepen across southeastern CO, and this has recently resulted in a gradual increase in southeasterly winds across our forecast area. This has contributed to improvements in visibility (especially across northeast AL), but with widespread locally dense for continuing to impact northwest AL (and pockets of lingering dense fog in wind-sheltered locations in the east), we will maintain the current Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM. As for the remainder of the day, low-level flow is predicted to veer to SSE and strengthen quickly by mid-morning as the shortwave trough and surface low begin to eject northeastward over the central Plains (reaching eastern IA by 0Z). In spite of an abundant coverage of stratocumulus clouds (and perhaps a few light showers this afternoon), highs will once again range from the mid 60s in elevated terrain to the u60s-l70s in the valley (likely approaching daily record values at both HSV and MSL).

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

Upper ridging over the Gulf will continue to amplify while upper troughing shifts east through the central CONUS. Continued southerly flow will bring better moisture and increasing winds overnight Thursday as well as medium to high chances for rain and a few thunderstorms by daybreak on Friday. Friday into Saturday will be the most impactful portion of the forecast with the threat for both flash flooding and severe weather.

We continue to feel most confident in the threat for localized flooding or flash flooding as models have been more consistently painting the Tennessee Valley with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall beginning Friday morning through around mid-day Saturday. Forecast PWATs reach the 1.5-1.7" range which would be record breaking values for early/mid January when compared to BMX sounding climatology. Although we have been pretty dry and with the entire area listed in a D1 Moderate Drought, guidance continues to increase rainfall amounts over our area that could exceed the amount of water the dry ground can absorb over a short period of time. Storm total amounts now exceed 4" in some locations and could still be underdone if models are not accurately depicting how heavy the rainfall may be at times. We want to stress that this will not be one solid line that moves through along the cold front, it will be multiple rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms that could last close to 36 hours. A Flood Watch may be needed in future forecast updates if current trends continue.

Now onto the severe threat which is of much lower confidence. After looking at the 00z high res guidance, most models show the development of both supercells and linear thunderstorm segments to our southwest across portions of LA and southern MS on Friday which then stretch across central AL. The limiting factor for us continues to be instability, and we feel any severe threat will be confined to a very narrow window of time across northwest AL late Friday afternoon when there may be enough sfc based instability to support thunderstorms capable of damaging winds. It remains very difficult to try to nail down the timing of this window due to such a conditional threat and the likely outcome that the better instability will be trapped to our south and west and will prevent thunderstorms from reaching severe limits this far north and east. Any trends in model guidance that back off on thunderstorm development to our south would work to increase the threat for severe storms, but this has not been the case so far.

The heaviest period for rain will be Friday night between 6pm and 6am Saturday and will begin to tapper off as the front pushes through the area Saturday morning into the afternoon. Dry and cooler conditions are forecast by Saturday night with skies beginning to clear and temps falling down near the freezing mark by early Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1042 PM CST Wed Jan 7 2026

By the second half of the weekend we will be solidly post frontal. Aloft, zonal flow will dominate through the long term. At the surface, high pressure will build in the southern Plains and slowly translate east through the start of the work week. Locally, the zonal flow paired with NW winds along the eastern periphery of surface high pressure will allow for a much cooler and drier airmass to be ushered into the TN Valley. This will be immediately felt on Sunday as highs will be retained to the low to mid 40s. By Sunday night after a full day of CAA, lows will drop into the low to mid 20s making for a chill start of the work week. Without any significant changes to the synoptic pattern through the beginning of the work week, temps will be slow to warm with highs only warming to the low 50s by Wednesday and lows only warming to the low 30s by Wednesday night.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 549 AM CST Thu Jan 8 2026

There have been no significant changes to previous aviation forecast reasoning, as fog/low stratus should rapidly disperse by 15Z as sfc winds veer to SSE and increase to 8G16 kts. However, cloud bases will likely remain arnd 2500 ft for much of the day and should descend to 1500 ft this evening as low-level flow veers to the south and strengthens further into the 10G20 kt range. Although a few light SHRA may occur this aftn and evening, probabilities for impactful precipitation are too low to include in the TAFs attm. However, chances for rain and TSRA will increase from W-to-E beginning shortly after Midnight, and a PROB30 group has been included in both TAFs from 8-12Z to address this. Additionally, due to a SSW low-level jet increasing to 40-50 kts overnight, LLWS has been introduced in the forecast at 3Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for ALZ001>010- 016.

TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TNZ076-096- 097.