textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

- Slightly cooler conditions today with very dry conditions in place, before a further warming trend begins by the middle of the week.

- Low to medium chances of showers starting Tuesday night. Maybe a few thunderstorms Tuesday night and again at the end of the week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 340 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

It might be a good idea to grab a jacket before you head out the door, as it's shaping up to be a chilly morning and cool day! Temperatures are in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees for most locations across north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee early this morning. In addition, dew points have dropped into the mid 20s to lower 30s. This follows our forecast and trends of Hi-Res guidance indicating much drier conditions pushing into the region. Although Red Flag conditions are not met since winds will be light, it will be very dry. Thus, caution should be exercised today and any burning avoided! Overall, the forecast for today has not changed, with highs in the 60s and mostly sunny skies and light easterly winds.

Previous Discussion:

Several areas continue to see calm winds at this hour. Temperatures are in the lower 40s (far northeastern Alabama) to around 50 degrees (NW Alabama). Looking at boundary layer advection to around 1000 mb, thinking lower dewpoints will continue to advect into the area. This will likely allow lows east of I-65 in sheltered valley locations to drop into the 34 to 36 degree range around daybreak on Monday.

Guidance does hint at some mid/high clouds moving east into the area during the midday/afternoon hours today. Not expecting mostly cloudy conditions, but these clouds could taper highs very slightly. Weak cold air advection early in the morning should give way to neutral advection in the afternoon. Expect this to also temper highs as well. Thus forecasted high temperatures just below NBM ensemble guidance in most areas. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s look reasonable in southern middle Tennessee and portions of NE Alabama. Further west, highs in the mid to upper 60s look good.

Given the very dry air just off the surface in most guidance, dewpoints will start dropping significantly just after sunrise today. Lowered dewpoints close to RAP13 as a result. This will really drop RH values to between 10 and 15% by the late morning/early afternoon hours. Winds luckily will be mainly be between around 5 mph or less, as a large area of high pressure builds into the area. Regardless, outdoor burning due to the dry conditions is not advised today.

SHORT TERM

(Monday night through Wednesday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

This large area of high pressure quickly moves east into the Mid- Atlantic area tonight. Aloft, an upper low moves east from eastern Nebraska into Iowa. The strong forcing remains well north of the area close to the upper low. Though cloud cover will likely increase overnight, no precipitation is expected. Strong warm air advection begins tonight into Tuesday. This should propel low temperatures into the lower 40s (east) to lower 50s (west).

As the upper low moves quickly to the E or ESE Tuesday night into Wednesday, its attendant front, lags behind it. This puts into question a bit rainfall chances. For now, kept close to NBM ensemble bringing 20 to 50 PoP into locations near and north of the Tennessee River then. Some very weak instability is shown by a few models, but not many. Left thunderstorms out of the forecast for now, but they may need to be added in subsequent shifts. With warm air and moisture advection continuing in the boundary layer, lows should continue to warm into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1056 PM CST Sun Nov 16 2025

Models hang up this front and weaken it as the upper low continues to quickly move to the E or ENE into the Atlantic into the end of the week. Kept mainly 10 to 20 PoP in the forecast Wednesday through Thursday of next week. Just how warm it will be is the main question during that period. For now went with upper 70s to lower 80s. However, highs could be higher, but should be tempered by on and off mostly cloudy conditions.

Models continue to show a more substantial cut-off low moving into the Four Corners region Wednesday night. How this feature evolves will have a big impact on the forecast. Models seem to be coming into better agreement overall. Most guidance kicks this feature NE into the central Plains region Thursday night into Friday morning. A warm front associated with this will likely bring some showers (outside chance of a few thunderstorms) to the area Thursday night.

A front or pre-frontal trough axis is shown by most models pushing out ahead of it producing some convection along it as we move into Friday over the area and just west of the Ohio Valley region. Thunderstorms look a bit more likely Friday night into Saturday as this front is slow to move further east, but a few models show some instability developing Friday afternoon. Shear should be in place for some stronger convective development, but instability and forcing are a bit more questionable.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 450 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions will continue through tonight. Mostly clear skies with light easterly winds (5 knots or less) are forecast today. Clouds increase slightly overnight, with winds shifting to be out of the southeast and increasing to between 5-10 knots.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.