textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

- There is a low chance of showers and thunderstorms south of the Tennessee River Monday and Tuesday.

- Unsettled weather returns from mid to late week, with daily chances of showers and thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall may become a concern by late week.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Tonight and Monday) Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The line of showers and storms that brought strong to severe storms earlier this afternoon, especially over far north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee, have since progressed well to our east and southeast this evening. Although, a few lingering showers have traversed the area over the past couple of hours. Low chances (10-20%) of a few showers will therefore continue through mid-evening; however, the severe weather threat has ended for today.

A cold front is right on the doorstep of northwest Alabama and, with FROPA later tonight, little to no rain is forecast for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee overnight. Expect lows in the lower to upper 60s. We may need to watch for fog development tonight, as forecast dewpoint depressions are very low and quite a few areas received rainfall today. In addition, winds are expected to be light, with scattered high clouds aloft. Currently, not anticipating widespread dense fog, but there is at least a low chance of patchy fog near bodies of water and for areas that received rainfall today.

Areas south of the Tennessee River have a low chance (10-20%) of showers/storms on Monday; however, these probabilities really depend on how far south the front moves. If it only makes it just south of Cullman County, the probability of shower/storm activity will be higher compared to if the front pushes farther south. Even so, with northwest flow taking hold, a cooler airmass will be advected into the region and this will lead to highs topping out in the mid 70s to around 80 degrees. It will also be a bit drier too, so enjoy the less muggy and cooler weather while it lasts!

SHORT TERM

(Monday Night through Wednesday Night) Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

The aforementioned surface front will meander generally over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek. This will result in very low to low chances of showers and storms south of the Tennessee River Monday night through Tuesday night. While bulk shear values shown by models hover between 30-35 knots Tuesday afternoon, instability will be the question when it comes to thunderstorm development due to the cooler and a bit drier airmass in place. Overall shower/storm chances then increase a bit on Wednesday to 20-40% during the day. These look to be more diurnally driven, especially with a stalled front to our south and a cold front over the central CONUS and Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. Even with ample instability, bulk shear values shown by guidance on Wednesday are around 20 knots. Thus, no severe weather is anticipated for our area Monday night through Wednesday night.

Lows Monday night are forecast to be much cooler than we've seen recently, with values in the upper 50s to lower 60s! Tuesday will be another mild day, with highs reaching the upper 70s to lower 80s for most locations. Temperatures then begin to moderate by midweek, with highs in the mid to upper 80s on Wednesday and lows in the lower to mid 70s Wednesday night.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 900 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

As an upper level low shifts eastward into the Great Lakes region, an upper level trough and subsequent cold front drop down into the Ohio River Valley and toward the TN Valley. Ahead of this front, the area will be primed with available moisture as southerly flow brings PWATs into the 1.9-2.1" range (above the 90th percentile per BMX and OHX sounding climatology). Additionally, CAPE will yield plenty of available instability with values reaching around 1500-2000 J/kg during Thursday afternoon. However, shear remains relatively weak. We will be watching the evolution and timing of this cold front as whether it approaches during the peak afternoon heating versus overnight when there is less available instability will make a large difference in potential threats on the table for us. No matter the details, there remains high chances (70-90%) of thunderstorms moving through the area sometime Thursday afternoon into Friday. This will be our primary feature to watch in the long term as it could bring another flash flood threat to the area. Another threat to watch on Thursday will be the heat as highs reach the mid 80s to low 90s with heat indices in the upper 90s to around 100. We will be monitoring how rain chances and accompanying cloud cover affect these temperatures, however, encourage everyone to practice heat safety to prevent heat related illness.

Post-frontal conditions through the first half of the weekend should be mostly dry as sfc high pressure filters in from the west with high temperatures capped in the low to mid 80s. Rainfall chances (20-40%) return on Sunday as the aforementioned frontal boundary shifts back northward and stalls over Central AL. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, we encourage you to check back in for updates as we progress through the week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 616 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

VFR conditions are expected to prevail at the terminals tonight and Monday. Most of the shower and storm activity from this afternoon has moved east of north Alabama, but there is a low chance of a few lingering showers this evening. No rain is forecast overnight, but low chances of patchy fog exist due to continued elevated moisture. Ultimately, kept fog out of the TAFs for now due to low confidence in any occurring at the terminals. For Monday, any shower and storm activity should remain south of the Tennessee River. Lastly, winds will slacken this evening to be light and variable overnight. Northwest winds around 5 knots are then expected to develop through Monday morning.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.