textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1141 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2026

- An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect through 7 PM today due to a combination of afternoon temperatures in the mid- upper 90s and heat indices of 110-114F. A Heat Advisory will remain in effect from 7 PM today through 7 PM on Saturday.

- Strong to severe thunderstorms will impact portions of the region once again today and Friday (mainly from late afternoon into the evening). These will feature a risk for locally damaging downburst winds, up to one inch hail, and excessive lightning.

- The coverage of afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will begin to increase this weekend and will remain in the 40-60% range through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Convective initiation has begun in middle TN, and also in central MS. A couple of cells are also trying to develop in central and east central AL. Expect more and more development this afternoon, but coverage may be more limited over north AL due to the pre- existing cool pool from last night's storms. This is noted in the surface Theta-E analysis, with a gradient from southwest TN into northeast AL. Expecting a Severe Thunderstorm Watch soon for at least parts of the area. Dangerous heat is underway as well, with heat index values of 110-116 in northeast AL and southern middle TN, with 95-105F further southwest where dew points were in the lower 70s.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Sunday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Guidance seem to show the boundary orienting itself over the area in a WNW to ENE fashion on Friday. 925 mb temperatures still climb to between 25 and 28 degrees in the late morning early afternoon timeframe. Convection may initiate a bit earlier on Friday (between 1 PM and 3 PM). However, the airmass seems to modify in the low levels a bit by Friday morning with several models showing lower 70s dewpoints. Soundings also look like some mixing of drier air aloft could occur, but that may be brief. Do expect some low level pooling of moisture (pushing up dewpoints slightly) could occur, but don't think it will be as humid as the last few days. This should keep heat index values between 103 and 109 degrees. Thus, a heat advisory will remain in effect on Friday. Instability may somewhat lower on Friday. However, lapse rates look much less robust along with SBCAPE. Though still expecting afternoon SBCAPE to climb to between 2000 and 3000 J/KG. Overall, the severe thunderstorm threat lessens and shifts more into Tennessee on Friday. Our southern middle Tennessee counties and towards Jackson county (AL) could see the severe thunderstorm threat linger though.

This boundary lingers over the area into Saturday. However, as the center of the upper ridge slides further east, better instability will likely not be as attainable. Drier air aloft seems to lessen as well. Models continue to show lower 925 mb temperatures in the afternoon close to between 24 and 26 degrees. This should help keep highs more in the lower to mid 90s. Lower dewpoints are also shown in guidance and without a more solid convergence area to focus higher dewpoints, afternoon instability values should be lower. That being said, isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will still be possible. However, with no shear and lower instability/less favorable lapse rates, no severe storms are expected. This activity should quickly dissipate around sunset. Overnight lows should remain in the 70 to 75 degree range mainly. Some fog may be possible. This general pattern will continue through Sunday.

LONG TERM

(Sunday night through Thursday) Issued at 1141 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

Even cooler temperatures are expected into next week as the upper highs shifts well to our east and a zonal pattern aloft sets up over the southeast. Highs in the lower 90s should be more of a rule with continued lows in the lower 70s. Rain and thunderstorm chances look higher in the afternoon/early evening as well (40-60%).

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2026

VFR conditions are expected through the early afternoon hours. For now, included a PROB30 group for TSRA activity between 02/21Z and 03/01Z. During this period at least MVFR VSBYS and CIGS are possible, maybe lower. This may need to be made more predominant in future amendments. This activity should dissipate and VFR conditions should return after 01Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ALZ001>010- 016.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for ALZ001>010-016.

TN...Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ076-096- 097.

Heat Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TNZ076-096-097.