textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

- High chances (60-90%) of showers and thunderstorms Sunday into Monday.

- Excessive rainfall and flash flood risk go up Monday into Tuesday.

- Heat Risk increases by late next week. Heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees Thursday through Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Sunday) Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A comfortably warm evening is underway as veils of high clouds continue to increase in advance of a slow moving upper low in OK. A weak shortwave and low level trough extension from this low through AR into southern MS and southwest AL. This divides a high Theta-E/PW airmass to our southwest with PW values of 2.2-2.4 inches and dew points in middle 70s, from one with dew points in the lower 60s in the TN Valley. So we will see a very distinct airmass change overnight as the trough lifts northeast into the area tonight into early Sunday morning. With it, clusters of showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to expand in coverage, especially toward morning just to southwest. These will overspread the TN valley Sunday morning and last at times into the afternoon. There may be a waning period late in the day, but with the airmass that will be in place, despite limited heating due to clouds and rain, additional showers and thunderstorms will develop. Locally heavy rainfall will occur, but not expecting severe weather at this time with limited CAPE. Lows tonight will only dip into the upper 60s to around 70. Highs will only reach the upper 70s east to lower 80s west.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday night through Tuesday) Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

A decrease in coverage of showers and any thunderstorms is expected Sunday night with the original 8h/5h wave shifting only slightly northeast but with the loss of daytime heating. But I'm not convinced there will not be continued clusters of heavy showers along the convergence axis in middle TN and northeast AL. The Oklahoma upper low will have become an open wave and lifted northeast closer to the MS River by Monday morning, but the convergence axis in advance of this appears to remain fairly stagnant. With deep layer flow being fairly weak (8h-5h WSW at 15-20kt), excessive rain appears to be a distinct threat on Monday through Tuesday as the shortwave trough slowly edges east into the OH and upper TN valley. The WPC ERO of Slight Risk both days looks good and a Flood Watch will need to be considered in future updates.

LONG TERM

(Tuesday night through Saturday) Issued at 846 PM CDT Sat Jun 6 2026

On Wednesday, a trough will push out of the northwest U.S. and through the Northern Plains, disrupting the vast ridge of high pressure that extends across much of the central, southern and eastern CONUS. The ridge will further be dampened as a wave of energy rounds the base of this trough on Thursday and as the trough progress eastward across southern Canada on Friday. While we are under high pressure during the extended forecast, it won't feel like it. We'll be trapped in with plenty of moisture for diurnally driven convection each day (low to medium chances 20-50%). We will also turn up the heat as temps stay in the 80s on Wednesday, then the upper 80s/lower 90s arrive on Thursday through Saturday. It is important to note that this set up will also push the heat index values into the upper 90s/lower 100s Thursday through Saturday. If trends continue and values get a little bit higher, a Heat Advisory may be needed on Friday. Yes, it's June, however we do not feel acclimated to the high heat and humidity for this long, so ensure that you stay hydrated and slow down to prevent heat related illnesses.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A bkn-ovc stratus layer will continue to expand across northern AL early this morning as a low-level jet begins to veer to the SW and strengthen. At this point, we expect cigs to descend into the MVFR range by 9Z, with convection (initially developing across east-central MS/west-central AL) expected to develop northeastward into the vicinity of both terminals by 10-12Z. Beyond this point, periods of showers and thunderstorms will exist for much of the day, and although it will not be raining the entire time, overall coverage of thunderstorms appears worthy of including this as the prevailing weather condition thru 22Z. Lightning may occasionally warrant AWWs during this timeframe, and locally heavy rainfall will also lead to visibility reductions and IFR-MVFR cigs. A somewhat lower coverage of precipitation (and improvement in vis/cig) is expected btwn 22-02Z, but low stratus clouds will quickly become established once again by the end of the period. Sfc winds will remain from the SSE at prevailing speeds of 5-10 kts.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.