textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

- Warm temperatures, low relative humidity, and gusty winds will promote elevated fire weather concerns on Sunday.

- A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for all of north Alabama on Sunday from 11AM through 7PM.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

There has not been much change to the near term forecast. Dew points have dropped into the upper 40s to lower 50s for most locations early this afternoon, which are on track with our earlier forecast. This has resulted in relative humidities in the 30-40% range. With recent Hi-Res model trends, still expecting dew points to lower a little bit through the late afternoon. Current temperatures are in the upper 70s to lower 80s and are also on track to reach the lower to mid 80s. Therefore, no major changes were needed to the forecast at this time.

Previous Discussion:

A surface cold front to our north, draped over western Tennessee and up into northeastern Tennessee, has managed to produce very light and sporadic showers so far today. Even as the boundary approaches north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee today, not anticipating much in the way of any measurable precipitation. This is due to the upper ridge that is currently progressing into the Southeast. This feature is expected to dominate, providing enough subsidence to hinder most precipitation over our area today. Therefore, chances of showers remain very low (less than 5%) over southern middle Tennessee and north Alabama.

As for temperatures, highs are forecast to warm into the lower to mid 80s this afternoon with lows only dropping into the 50s later tonight. Overall, enjoy your Saturday, but make sure to drink plenty of water if you are outside! Also, with it being so dry, we urge everyone to be cautious when it comes to burning. While winds and relative humidity values are not expected to reach Red Flag Warning criteria today, the warm and dry conditions will at least lead to an increased fire weather risk.

SHORT TERM

(Sunday through Monday) Issued at 1111 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

The aforementioned upper ridge will largely remain in place over the region through Monday, with little to no rain chances continuing. An upper shortwave moving over the mid Mississippi River Valley into the Ohio Valley on Monday may bring low chances (10-20%) of a few showers and storms to our northwest. However, most of this activity should be concentrated to our northwest, with most of our local area remaining dry. Highs will generally remain in the lower to mid 80s, with Sunday expected to be a touch warmer than Monday. It'll be a bit warmer Sunday night as well with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The main concern for the Short Term period is the elevated fire weather risk on Sunday. We have received very little rain recently, so our fuels are dry. Furthermore, our forecast currently calls for minimum relative humidity values in the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range (RHs down to around 25% may even be realized) and wind gusts to around 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon. We are also outlooked by the National Interagency Coordination Center in a high risk of significant fire potential. This means that there is an "elevated risk for significant fires and the potential for significant fire growth on existing fires." Ultimately, we are monitoring the potential for a Red Flag Warning, since criteria are very close to being met. Because of this, we've decided to issue a Fire Weather Watch that is in effect for all of north Alabama from 11AM through 7AM Sunday. We urge everyone to exercise caution and refrain from burning this weekend, but especially on Sunday. Please obey any local burn bans that are in place!

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 837 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

At the start of the long term period on Monday, there will be upper level ridging across the eastern CONUS with troughing in the west. High pressure remains locked in across the Southeast. Southerly flow around the western flank of the sfc high results in a continued warming trend through the upcoming work week. Temperatures throughout next week will be running around 10 degrees above normal. The good news is that dewpoints only rise into the mid to upper 50s keeping the heat indices close to the air temperatures. Overnight lows dips down into the upper 50s to lower 60s and afternoon highs rise into the low to mid 80s Tuesday and Wednesday and then the upper 80s Thursday and Friday. For reference, our typical temperatures this time of year are highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Several shortwaves will eject northeast along the base of the trough to our west, but latest ensembles keep all rain chances out of our local forecast area. Right now, there is a low chance (10-15%) of showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm for areas along and west of I-65. Regardless, this very limited chance for precip will barely put a dent into the recent drought conditions.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

VFR conditions will persist through Sunday morning. Light to calm winds today and tonight will increase Sunday morning, becoming southerly between 5-10 knots with gusts to 15-18 knots by early Sunday afternoon.

CLIMATE

Issued at 419 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

The Climate Prediction Center has included all of Northern Alabama and Southern Middle Tennessee in a Moderate/High Risk for Much Above Normal Temperatures for April 18-20. Therefore, there is a 50-70% chance for temperatures above 85-90 degrees F during this period

More information on the CPC U.S. Hazards Outlook can be found at: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/threats/threats.php

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for ALZ001>010-014-016.

TN...None.