textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

- We are monitoring the potential for much above normal temperatures this weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of Today and Tonight) Issued at 145 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

There have been no significant changes to near term forecast reasoning since the update earlier this morning, as a combination of weak cold air advection and residual high clouds is likely to result in only 2-4 degrees of additional warming this afternoon. It still appears as if skies will gradually become clear during the early morning hours, and this along with a light NE-calm wind will support efficient radiational cooling as temps drop into the u40s-l50s by sunrise.

Previous Discussion: An amplifying mid-level trough will dig southeastward across the northeastern CONUS over the course of the near term period, with WSW flow aloft (initially in place over the TN Valley) predicted to veer to NW and fall into the 15-25 knot range overnight. In the low-levels, a deepening area of low pressure (related to the trough) will lift northeastward across northern Quebec, with the northern portion of the trailing cold front expected to sweep eastward into the western North Atlantic, while the southern and more diffuse portion of the front sags southward into central portions of the Gulf Coast states. Present indications are that lingering pockets of light/postfrontal rain will end across the southeastern portion of the CWFA by early afternoon as deep-layer subsidence gradually strengthens in the wake of the mid-level trough. However, a broken layer of high clouds will persist for much of the day, resulting in cooler afternoon temps (l-m 70s) as gusty NNE winds advect a drier airmass into the region.

Overnight, a surface high (marking the center of a modifying Canadian airmass) will build southeastward from the Great Lakes into the northern Mid-Atlantic states. A low-level ridge extending southwestward through the central Appalachians/TN Valley and into the southern Plains will result in a light NE-calm flow, with conditions becoming favorable for radiational cooling and development of patchy mist/fog early Tuesday morning as temps fall into the u40s-l50s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 1105 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Short range model data suggests that NW flow aloft will continue across the region through the mid-week period, and should strengthen into the 45-55 knot range by Wednesday night as another amplifying northern stream trough drops southeastward from southern Canada into the northern/central Mid-Atlantic states (effectively amplifying an upstream ridge over the Great Plains).

At the surface, a weakening high will translate east- southeastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast on Tuesday, with the lingering presence of a low-level ridge across our region resulting in light/variable winds. This, along with abundant sunshine, will allow temps tomorrow to rebound into the u70s-l80s. Light southwesterly return flow will begin on Tuesday night as a surface cyclone related to the northern stream trough begins to spread eastward through the Great Lakes. A shallow layer of partially modified Gulf moisture will advect northeastward ahead of the low's trailing cold front, and with low stratus clouds expected to return prior to sunrise lows will be in the m-u 50s. The cold front will shift southeastward across the local forecast area Wednesday afternoon, with shallow moisture limiting CAPE even as early afternoon temps climb into the l-m 80s. Nevertheless, a few showers may occur along and ahead of the front in our region, but the greatest concentration of frontal convection will likely occur to our immediate northeast (where deep-layer ascent associated with the mid-level trough will be stronger). Light NNE winds will advect a cooler/drier airmass into the region Wednesday night as high pressure builds southward from Ontario into the Upper/Mid-MS Valley, with lows predicted to reach the u40s-l50s.

LONG TERM

(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 943 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

We will be in a postfrontal airmass on Thursday with northwesterly flow aloft as a trough builds throughout the Plains. Highs will reach the mid to upper 70s Thursday afternoon, with a cool night as lows reach the upper 40s to lower 50s. The cool temps will quickly come to an end as they will be on the rise through the weekend. Friday will have highs around 80 degrees, and Sunday has the potential to reach 90 in a few spots! These temps will be dependent on the evolution of the ridge though as there is model disagreement on its amplitude, timing and various shortwaves, so stay tuned. Regardless, be sure to brush up on your heat safety and ensure that next weekend you know how to stay cool and hydrated. Don't forget: never leave people or pets in vehicles!

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 PM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Conditions will remain VFR at the terminals this forecast period, with sct fair-weather Cu and Ci both expected to diminish in coverage by late this aftn. Gusty NNE winds will subside during this timeframe as well, and as skies become clear during the early morning hours Tue, lgt NE-calm winds may support development of patchy BR/FG immediately before sunrise. However, coverage of vsby reductions is too uncertain to include in the forecast attm. Sct Cu will redevelop by 15Z, with a light ESE becoming established by the end of the TAF period.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.