textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

- Heat Risk increases this week with heat index values in the middle 90s to around 100 degrees Wednesday through Friday.

- Additional chances of strong thunderstorms with heavy rain Friday afternoon and evening, and again over the weekend.

- Monitoring the risk for additional heavy rain and flooding early next week.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 347 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Over the course of the near term period, the local forecast area will remain along the northeastern periphery of a mid-level subtropical high centered across southeastern TX, and along the southwestern edge of a surface high that will progress slowly eastward off the Mid-Atlantic Coast. Although latest model data suggests that the subtropical high will gradually weaken with time, its influence will provide gentle subsident motions aloft and very light (10-15 knot) NW flow, and for these reasons we expect dry conditions for most (if not the entire) region. That said, forecast soundings indicate steep low-level lapse rates (as valley temperatures warm into the u80s-m90s) and with a light southerly flow sustaining dewpoints in the lower 70s, CAPE will likely reach 1500-2000 J/kg this afternoon. Thus, given the thermodynamic environment, development of a remote thunderstorm or two this afternoon could certainly occur (especially in the higher terrain of northeast AL), but present indications are that isolated convection will be most concentrated in the vicinity of two subtle streamline confluence axes positioned to our northwest and southeast. Similar to yesterday, any sustained updraft will be capable of producing strong-severe downburst winds and torrential rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Otherwise, the main concern today will be dangerous heat, as the combination of dewpoints and temperatures will yield afternoon heat indices of 95-102F in lower elevations.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Similar weather will occur on Thursday with highs in the middle to upper 80s east to lower 90s west. The Shoals metro may peak near 95. Heat indices will once again peak around 100 in the Shoals and Huntsville metro areas. There will still be a low chance of showers and thunderstorms in northeast AL, mainly along the higher terrain. Relief from the heat will come on Friday as a cold front drops southeast through TN into north AL and MS. Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms are expected along the front, possibly lingering into the overnight hours. A few of the storms could be strong with gusty winds given rather buoyant CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg. Before the front arrives, highs will once again reach the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat indices again in the middle 90s to around 100.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 914 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

The primary concern through the weekend will be the return of rain chances and a subsequent flash flooding risk. An upper level low will push eastward into the Great Lakes region, bringing upper level troughing and a resultant cold front southward. Model uncertainty continues to exist on the southward extent of this system, which will greatly affect rain chances in the area. A sfc high centered in the Gulf will bring southerly flow and increased moisture to the area ahead of this system, resulting in PWATs reaching around 1.5-2" through the weekend. These PWAT values are around the 90th percentile per sounding climatology at BMX. Any showers or thunderstorms that form will likely be efficient rainfall producers, which will cause an increased risk of flash flooding due to antecedent rainfall and current soil conditions. The western portions of northern AL have already been outlooked in a Marginal (risk level 1 of 4) excessive rainfall risk on Saturday and an eastward expansion of this (pending additional model agreement in trends) would not be surprising. CAPE values are forecast to reach ~1500 J/kg during diurnal heating both Saturday and Sunday with sufficient low level lapse rates around 7-7.5 C/km. Despite shear remaining weak, a low chance for strong storms could exist if forcing materializes for our area. Recent trends continue to push higher rain chances later, so would not be surprised if forcing for storms does not arrive until Sunday into the early part of next week. Heat will also be of continued concern as highs top out in the upper 80s through the weekend with heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. If you have outdoor interests this weekend, be sure to keep updated on the latest forecast and be sure to practice heat safety to avoid heat related illness.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 112 AM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Recent trends in IR satellite data suggest that high-lvl convective debris clouds will continue to disperse across the region early this morning, with a light S-calm flow becoming conducive for development of MVFR vsby reductions (in lgt BR/FG) btwn 9-13Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will exist for the remainder of the TAF period, with a sct-bkn diurnal Cu field expected to develop by 16Z and dissipate around 0Z. After sunrise, sfc winds will veer to SSW and increase to 5-10 kts, before diminishing once again this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.