textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

- A strong cold front will bring medium to high chance of thunderstorms Sunday Night, some of which may be strong to severe.

- A hard freeze is likely Monday night/Tuesday morning, with lows in the lower 20s.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Clear skies and dry weather is forecast to continue overnight as upper level ridging and sfc high pressure shift eastward into our area. The primary question for tonight into Friday morning is whether or not we will have frost develop. Currently, winds are forecast to remain slightly elevated and we will likely be too dry for widespread frost formation as RH values will reach around 70-80%. Therefore, have opted out of issuing a Frost Advisory. We will be monitoring how much radiational cooling the atmosphere is capable of during the evening update. If variables trend more favorable for widespread frost, an Advisory may be issued this evening. Confidence in that occurring is low. Patchy frost, however, cannot be ruled out and those with agricultural interests are encouraged to protect sensitive vegetation.

SHORT TERM

(Friday through Saturday Night) Issued at 1014 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

As the aforementioned upper level ridge and sfc high continue deeper into the southeast U.S., dry conditions continue through the first part of the weekend. Highs on Friday are forecast to reach the mid to upper 60s before warming into the 70s again on Saturday with both days bringing mostly sunny conditions. Southerly flow will resume on Saturday, which should increase moisture ahead of the next system (more on that in the long term below).

LONG TERM

(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 927 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Extended range guidance suggests that an amplifying northern stream trough will dig southeastward from the central High Plains into the MO Valley on Sunday, before rapidly intensifying as it turns northeastward over the Mid-MS Valley and acquires a slight negative tilt Sunday night. As this occurs, a developing surface low will lift northeastward from eastern KS into the Lower Great Lakes Sunday before undergoing a phase of rapid deepening Sunday night over Lower MI. Southerly flow across our CWFA will strengthen throughout the day (supporting an increasing coverage of low clouds and perhaps some light showers), with temps warming into the l-m 70s. Beginning late Sunday morning, a strongly forced band of convection is predicted to evolve along the cyclone's cold front (in the MO Valley vicinity), with upscale growth predicted to occur throughout the afternoon/evening as the front accelerates southeastward. Present indications are that strengthening deep-layer forcing for ascent (enhanced by increasingly diffluent flow aloft) will maintain the frontal QLCS as it enters our region late Sunday evening and exits early Monday morning. In the presence of a sufficiently moist/unstable airmass (with dewpoints in the m50s-l60s), intense wind fields (highlighted by a 45-55 knot SSW low-level jet and WSW mid-level flow increasing to 100+ knots by 12Z Monday) will support a risk for strong-severe thunderstorms (including the potential for higher-caliber damaging winds as well as line-embedded mesocyclones and tornadoes).

In the wake of the arctic cold front, gusty northwest winds and cold advection will quickly drop temperatures into the m-u 30s by sunrise, and with postfrontal stratus expected to linger through much of the morning (and perhaps into the afternoon), it will be a struggle for temps to briefly touch the u40s-l50s Monday afternoon. With synoptic scale ascent predicted to remain rather strong until the passage of a mid-level trough Monday afternoon, a few sprinkles of cold rain or perhaps a snow flurry may also occur, but chances for measurable precipitation are very low at this point. Clearing skies, dewpoints in the lower teens and calm winds will result in a hard freeze early Tuesday morning with lows in the mid 20s. An increasing coverage of mid/high-level clouds associated with a clipper system will lead to similar high temps Tuesday, but a warming trend will begin Wednesday as highs rise back into the u50s-l60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAFS) Issued at 457 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR flight weather conditions are forecast. Light and variable wind tonight will turn south-southwest at 10-15kt after 14Z.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.