textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 337 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

- Low (20-30%) chances for showers and thunderstorms return Friday afternoon, increasing to medium/high (50-80%) from Saturday-Monday.

- A low chance of some strong to severe storms is forecast on Saturday, bringing a threat of gusty to damaging winds.

- Temperatures remain warm through early next week with near record highs on Thursday, Friday, Saturday, and next Tuesday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 337 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

The previous discussion remains on track as very low chances of showers (10% or less) remain in the forecast for NW AL this afternoon due to stalled front shifting northwest of the area. High temperatures are forecast to rise into the upper 70s to lower 80s. Whether or not we will break the high temperature record in Huntsville depends on how far east the cloud cover will reside over the TN Valley. If clouds remain scattered, there is a greater chance of the record being broken. This will be something monitored in the late morning update. Overall, a mostly dry and breezy day is in store for the area.

Previous Discussion: Almost broke a record today at MSL with how warm the temps were. We hit 81 degrees and the record is 83 (2022). With such warm temps today and the increasing cloud cover tonight that we'll see from an approaching shortwave trough, lows will be really mild. The lows will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s, that is 20 degrees above normal for this time of year. In fact, looking at the records, we could break or tie a record for the highest min temperature at HSV, but MSL may fall short.

Tomorrow will be another nice and abnormally warm day across the TN Valley. High pressure centered just off the Southeast coast will still be hanging on to portions of the region. A shortwave will slide through the Midwest and dampen the high, and a sfc low will follow suite and drag a cold front into the Mid MS Valley. This pattern will give way to south/southwesterly winds to increasing in the morning, gusting 15-20 mph throughout the afternoon hours. The proficient WAA will push daytime highs into the upper 70s to lower 80s, and another record could be tied or broken in Huntsville. A light shower may brush far NW AL, otherwise we will be dry once again.

Record High Minimums and Daily High Temperatures Thursday Huntsville 64/1961 81/1910 Muscle Shoals 65/1961 86/1908

SHORT TERM

(Thursday night through Saturday) Issued at 945 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Thursday night will be once again be abnormally warm with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s and could tie or break highest low records. The shortwave and sfc will move on to the Northeast on Friday but there will be enough rich Gulf air streaming in to provide a low chance (30-40%) of showers and a few thunderstorms in the afternoon as a disturbance slides by. Better chances of rain will come this weekend.

This weekend, an upper level trough will deeply dig out West on Friday, then break into a southern stream cut off low near Baja California while a short wave rides into the Midwest on Saturday, further dampening the high pressure across the Southeast. The sfc low will lift through the Midwest on Saturday and the associated cold front will slide southeast towards the TN Valley bringing increasing chances of showers and thunderstorms throughout the day. High chances (50-80%) are expected by Saturday afternoon. Forecast soundings show rainfall could be moderate to heavy with PWATS just shy of the 99th percentile and weak shear in place. Given the decent sfc based instability, could see a stronger storm or two in the afternoon hours.

Record High Minimums and Daily High Temperatures

Friday Huntsville 60/1951 82/1910 Muscle Shoals 64/1956 82/1910

Saturday Huntsville 67/1956 82/1956 Muscle Shoals 64/1951 83/1934

LONG TERM

(Saturday night through Wednesday) Issued at 945 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

The last few days of a southerly flow bringing deeper moisture across the Tennessee Valley from the Gulf region, will be lifted as a frontal boundary nears from the west. This will bring higher chances of convection across the Tennessee Valley to start off a new week. Scattered to numerous showers, and a few thunderstorms should already be in progress as we go into Saturday evening. Precipitable water amounts forecasted Saturday night into Sunday morning ranged upwards to 1.5" over parts of the area. Thus locally heavy rainfall, with a non-zero risk for flooding and/or flash flooding in spots where the heaviest rainfall occurs. Areas west of the I-65 corridor appear were the heavier rainfall may fall. Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms remain in the forecast Sunday. Low temperatures Sat night should range in the upper 50s. With clouds and decent shower chances, it'll be a bit cooler Sun, with highs in the low/mid 70s. These readings are still around 10 degrees warmer than seasonable norms. We go back to Daylight Savings Time during Saturday night; please do not forget to set your clocks one hour FORWARD before retiring for the day.

The above noted cold front will become more diffuse and weaker Sun night as it moves across the area. Shower activity should become more scattered in coverage as this boundary weakens Sunday night into Monday. Similar high low temperatures are expected, with lows Sun night in the upper 50s, and highs on Mon in the mid/upper 70s.

For once, the warmer air should "win" as we go into another work week. The area of high pressure off of the east coast will not be moving much, thus a southerly flow from the Gulf of America will keep a feed of moisture over the Southeast. With lower rain chances and a bit more sun, air temperatures should appropriately respond. Highs on Tuesday one again should rise into the lower 80s. Standing record highs of 79/2009 and 82/1925 at Huntsville and Muscle Shoals may be eclipsed. Very mild conditions are expected Mon/Tue night, only falling into lower 60s. Record warm minimum temperature records in this time frame could also be exceeded.

Yet another frontal boundary is forecast to approach the forecast area from the west late Tuesday night into Wednesday. It will bring more numerous showers and a few thunderstorms across the area. High precipitable water amounts greater than 1.5" could result in locally heavy rainfall, with minor flooding not out of the question.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 441 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period at both KMSL and KHSV. During the afternoon, breezy southerly to southwesterly wind gusts up to 19 kts are forecast.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.