textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

- Low to medium chances of showers and thunderstorms exists during the middle part of this week. The primary hazard will be locally excessive rain and lightning. There is a low chance of few strong storms with gusty winds as well.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 354 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Northwest flow aloft of 15-25 knots will persist across the TN Valley for the duration of the near term period, as we will remain located between a strong subtropical high (centered across southern NM) and an ejecting shortwave trough (across the northeastern CONUS and adjacent portions of OT/QC). In the low- levels, a ridge of high pressure will extend from OT south- southeastward into the TN Valley, maintaining light northerly winds and a notably cooler/drier airmass than we have experienced for much of the month of August. Although a weakening vort max (currently traveling southeastward from central MO) has contributed to dense high-level clouds (and a few patches of virga) early this morning, we expect clouds to disperse rather quickly by mid-morning as the decaying disturbance progresses further southeastward and away from the region. Thus, after early morning lows in the l-m 60s (coolest across northeast AL), abundant sunshine will allow highs to once again reach the u80s-l90s. With clusters of thunderstorms (originating across the southern Plains) expected to travel south-southeastward toward the central Gulf Coast (in the vicinity of a boundary layer moisture gradient positioned well to our southwest), we will maintain a dry forecast for the rest of the day.

SHORT TERM

(Monday through Wednesday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

NW flow will persist through mid week with higher theta-E, moisture and instability being shunted to our south and southwest through Monday into Monday night. Another pleasant day is forecast Monday with dew points staying in the upper 50s to lower 60s, and high temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90. As a shortwave drops into the lower MO Valley on Tuesday, mid level moisture will begin to edge further east into AL and middle TN. This brings a very low chance of showers Tuesday. Low levels will likely be too dry to support much precipitation.

The shortwave will pivot into the mid South and TN Valley Tuesday Night into Wednesday. The models differ greatly with the strength of the wave, magnitude of the associated LLJ, and consequently the influx of theta-E and convergence. The most plausible scenario is that elevated convection, possibly in the former of MCS clusters will develop Tuesday night in MO at the nose of the LLJ. These drop into western KY, much of western and central TN and into north AL by Wednesday, followed by eventual cold front passage late Wednesday or Wednesday night. Given the uncertainty, the NBM has low to medium chance PoPs at this point. Locally heavy rainfall may become the primary risk with this event, but a few strong storms could also develop with 20-25kt of 6km bulk shear. As of now, NBM has highs in the lower 90s for most valley area, but this appears to be questionable if the morning MCS clusters arrive as the models are depicting.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 736 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026

The axis of an upper level trough is shown to be right over the Southeast to start the long term, with shortwaves rippling along the flow across the ArkLaMiss and into the Tennessee Valley. This trough will gradually be pushed northeast as an upper ridge over the Desert Southwest builds over the southern Plains and eastward into the Southeast this weekend. At the surface, a boundary looks to linger over central Alabama, Mississippi, and Georgia through midweek; but, another cold front is expected to push through the Tennessee Valley on Thursday. There may be a reinforcing front that swings through on Friday, but high pressure is shown to quickly build over the Ohio Valley, Appalachians, and portions of the Northeast next weekend. Overall, the best chance of showers and storms will likely be Wednesday night through Thursday. Chances then decrease from late week through the weekend as drier air is filtered into the region.

Guidance indicates that PWATs increase to around 2 inches late Wednesday through Thursday. While there will likely be sufficient instability with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s Thursday afternoon, model bulk shear values and lapse rates have decreased since yesterday. So, confidence in stronger storms (downbursts) has also decreased; however, these trends will continue to be monitored. Regardless, showers and storms will be efficient rainfall producers. Heavy rain, especially from cells moving over the same locations repeatedly, may result in at least minor flooding issues. Ultimately, keep any eye on forecast updates this week and turn around, don't drown if you encounter flooded roads! For Friday through Sunday, rain chances are lower with continued high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s and lows in the 60s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 141 AM CDT Mon Aug 24 2026

Broken-overcast cirroform clouds will continue to spread southeastward across northern AL early this morning, as a weakening upper-lvl disturbance approaches the region in NW flow aloft. Although a few patches of virga (or perhaps a sprinkle or two of lgt RA) may also occur through 12-14Z, conditions will remain VFR at the HSV/MSL terminals as the high-lvl ceilings should largely inhibit development of BR/FG (in spite of a lgt NE- calm wind). The dense cloud cover aloft will begin to disperse around 15Z, leaving only a sct coverage of Ci (and few Cu during the aftn). Sfc winds will diurnally back to NNW and increase to 5-10 kts later this morning, before a lgt ENE flow becomes reestablished this evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.