textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

- Low relative humidity values, dry fuels, and gusty winds will result in elevated fire weather conditions today through Wednesday.

- There are medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms on Thursday.

- Medium chances (30-60%) of showers and storms return on Saturday.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 323 AM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Mostly clear conditions early this morning, save for a few bands of cirrus passing overhead. With high pressure to the southeast of the region, a broad area of southwesterly flow will redevelop today, reinforcing this very warm air mass. The combination of ample sunshine and these southwesterly winds will push high temperatures into the mid to upper 80s, just a couple degrees below record highs at HSV and MSL (89 degrees in 2017 and 1936 respectively). These very warm temperatures and dewpoints in the upper 40s to mid 50s will knock Min RH values into the 25-35 percent range in most locations by this afternoon. Thankfully, winds will generally be lighter and in the 5-10 MPH range, but a few localized gusts to 15 MPH may occur in the afternoon. Given the very dry fuels, this may result in localized elevated fire weather conditions and caution continues to be urged.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday Night through Thursday Night) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Upper level ridging over the region and surface high pressure over the Deep South will maintain their hold through Wednesday. By Thursday morning, both of these features will be shunted to the east as an upper shortwave digs over the Mississippi Valley towards the Ohio Valley and a surface low pressure system from the central Plains slides into the Midwest. A cold front associated with this system may approach the Tennessee Valley during the day and bring medium chances (30-50%) of showers and storms to the local area, mainly for northwest Alabama and up into southern middle Tennessee.

There is still a bit of uncertainty with how far south the front will travel and where the best upper dynamics will be for any strong to severe storm potential. At this point, confidence is low in any strong to severe storms for north Alabama and southern middle Tennessee but this will be monitored. As for the much needed rainfall, looking probabilistically, there is a very low chance (10-20%) for areas over southern middle Tennessee and west of I-65 in Alabama to receive greater than a quarter of an inch of rain Thursday evening. Locations farther east have an even lesser chance. Therefore, confidence is low that we receive much rainfall at all on Thursday. However, this won't be our only chance at rain this week. Better chances look to be over this next weekend, so stay tuned and read more below in the Long Term section!

As for temperatures through Thursday night, it will continue to be warm with highs generally in the mid 80s and lows in the 60s. Taking a look at record temperatures for April 15th to provide some context, the record highs are 88 degrees for Huntsville and 89 degrees at Muscle Shoals (both set in 2006). Keep that in mind if you have outdoor activities on Wednesday and remember heat safety! Drink plenty of water and take frequent breaks in the shade!

Before moisture increases on Thursday ahead of the aforementioned surface front, the dry conditions mentioned in the short term will persist into Wednesday. Relative humidity values are forecast to drop into the upper 20 to lower 30 percent range during the day. In addition, it will also be breezy with another day of southwesterly winds around 10-15 mph and gusts to 15-20 mph. Therefore, elevated fire weather concerns will persist. Please be cautious as any fires that develop will likely spread more rapidly than expected!

LONG TERM

(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1052 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

The extended forecast period will begin with a continuation of warm/dry conditions, as a 500-mb ridge builds northeastward in the wake of a low amplitude shortwave trough and weak surface low tracking eastward across the northern Mid-Atlantic states. With only a few high-based cumulus anticipated beneath a strengthening mid- level inversion and light SSW flow in the low-levels, most valley locations will experience highs in the u80s-l90s. Low-level flow will begin to increase on Friday evening as a deepening vort max (embedded within the base of a broader trough extending from southern Canada into the northern Plains) begins to eject northeastward into the MO Valley, resulting in development of a frontal wave that will lift northeastward from KS into WI by 12Z Saturday. Latest model guidance suggests that both the mid-level wave and surface low will undergo substantial intensification as they progress further northeastward into eastern OT/western QC by 12Z Sunday, with showers and thunderstorms expected to develop along the length of the trailing cold front and perhaps a prefrontal surface trough (from IL/IN into the northwestern Gulf Coast) Saturday afternoon.

As the cold front begins to overtake the surface trough across the TN Valley Saturday evening, chances for much needed rainfall will increase across our forecast area, but there remains a large amount of uncertainty regarding rainfall amounts (ranging from around 0.05-0.10" as a worst case scenario to 0.5-0.75" as a best case scenario). This is likely due to the combination of substantial amount of lingering CINH noted in forecast soundings and a narrow plume of modified Gulf moisture which will only overspread the entire region immediately in advance of the front. Should the low/mid-level thermodynamic profile improve, rainfall amounts would likely be closer to the best case scenario, and a few strong storms capable of producing gusty winds would also be probable given sufficiently strong WSW flow aloft (45-55 knots) for updraft organization. Regardless, the front appears as if it will be exiting our region early Sunday morning, with any lingering precipitation ending in our southeastern zones around 12Z Sunday. A cooler/drier continental airmass will overspread the region for the remainder of the period, featuring highs in the u60s-l70s Sunday and overnight lows in the l-m 40s Monday morning.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period with a mostly clear sky. Winds may become gusty out of the SSW/SW this afternoon between 10-15 kts, before weakening after sunset.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.