textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

- Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will continue through Thursday with lightning and locally heavy rainfall the primary threats. The chances shift to our eastern forecast area on Friday. - Temperatures will remain slightly below normal through Thursday. - Heat Risk will reach the moderate category over the weekend. Heat index values are forecast to peak in the upper 90s to lower 100s.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Wednesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

A deep layer low pressure system has shifted west into northern MS this evening. Multiple convergence bands of showers and thunderstorms have occur this afternoon northeast of the low over the TN Valley and adjacent areas. A renewed cluster has produced frequent lightning in the southern Huntsville metro area between 6:30-7:30 PM. Additional storms and showers have entered northeast AL from GA. After sunset, these should all diminish greatly with only isolated coverage expected overnight. Low clouds are once again forecast to develop overnight into the early morning hours.

As the low slowly moves west and northwest into AR on Wednesday, the low will weaken, but continued convergence will generate additional bands of showers and thunderstorms over TN, north AL into GA. Temperatures will once again be limited to the lower to middle 80s as a result.

SHORT TERM

(Wednesday night through Friday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

The low becomes absorbed into the southerly flow over the Plains, but the lingering weak low level boundaries will keep at least low chances of Thursday as well. The orientation of the convergence boundary will become more north-south and shift to the east of I-65 on Friday as the 8h and 5h ridges build a bit more over the central Gulf Coast northward into AR. PoPs will increase to medium-high chances with this feature on Friday as convergence increases due to accelerating northwest flow in low to mid levels. Temperatures will vary from the mid to upper 80s east of the highway 231 corridor up to the lower 90s along and west of I-65. Lows will remain around 70 or in the lower 70s during this period.

LONG TERM

(Friday night through Tuesday) Issued at 946 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

As we head into the weekend an upper trough will dig east through the Great Lakes region, increasing PoPs and thunderstorm chances across the Appalachians digging south through eastern portions of the TN Valley. As this happens, H85 upper ridging will bring warmer temps to the area and combined with the humidity will bring an increasing risk for dangerous heat as we head into next week. Medium chances for rain will continue through the weekend before drier air is pushed into the TN Valley on Monday. Highs will climb into the low to mid 90s through the extended period and combined with dewpoint temps in the mid 70s will bring afternoon heat indices to the 99-105 degree range, especially early next week. There are some model discrepancies regarding the evolution of an upper trough that could bring a fairly strong cold front into the area some time early to mid next week, and with that comes some uncertainty on if an increased coverage of rain and thunderstorms could curb a higher heat risk. At this range, we will continue to emphasize a drier (capped PoPs at 30%) and warmer forecast early next week with the main risk highlighted by a moderate to major (levels 2 and 3 out of 4) HeatRisk.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1204 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

VFR conditions to start the period will gradually decrease to MVFR as lower clouds move in early in the morning. Low clouds stick around until they finally lift back up to VFR in the afternoon. Expect chances for showers with a low chance of thunderstorms during the afternoon hours as well. For now, left thunder out of the forecast do to low confidence.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.