textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

- Low to medium chances for showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon and early evening, continue through next week. - Moderate (level 2 out of 4) NWS HeatRisk for northern Alabama and southern middle Tennessee through the weekend increases to Major (level 3 out of 4) early next week for portions of the area.

NEAR TERM

(Rest of tonight and Saturday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

Several weak level trough axes continues to be in place from the Mid-Atlantic and Ohio Valley regions SW into NE Texas and further east. Isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity continues to develop in western Alabama that extends NE into northern central Tennessee. Some CAMS show a low chance (20-40%) of showers or thunderstorms continuing overnight, before slightly stronger forcing with a re-enforcing upper level trough axis after 4 AM merges with it. Some clearing has occurred near the AL/MS border this evening and into our southeastern counties. This could allow some fog to form over the next few hours.

As the second trough axis aloft moves east towards NW Alabama after midnight into the daybreak hours on Saturday, expect cloud cover to increase in coverage and thickness. This should keep widespread fog from developing and especially dense fog. This forcing, despite the atmosphere being worked over a bit, should be able to continue to kick off some isolated to scattered convection towards daybreak. Expect more of this activity to be more near/west of the I-65 corridor into southern middle Tennessee.

With daytime heating and as the re-enforcing longwave trough axis moves into NW Tennessee, during the afternoon hours, expect coverage and intensity of storms to increase. PWATS will remain high and instability is still ample for thunderstorm development. Isolated severe storms looks a bit harder to reach based on forecast instability overall though. We will have to watch for some flash flooding though, especially in NW Alabama towards southern middle Tennessee. Highs should be a tad cooler tomorrow only reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

SHORT TERM

(Saturday night through Monday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

The primary longwave trough axis aloft slowly moves east towards central Tennessee through Sunday night. This should keep low chances of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast during the late evening/overnight period. Shower and thunderstorm chances should increase into the medium to high range (40-60%) in the afternoon and early evening timeframe. Highs should remain similar only reaching the upper 80s to around 90 degrees.

This main upper level trough axis weakens and moves into the Mid- Atlantic region on Monday. However, the upper level trough axis extends back into southern middle Tennessee and northern Alabama in most guidance. Thus, medium to high (40-60%) coverage is expected to linger into Monday. The upper ridge will likely build northward a little more, thus highs should be a bit warmer and climb into the lower 90s in some areas.

LONG TERM

(Monday night through Friday) Issued at 1018 PM CDT Fri Aug 7 2026

A broad area of high pressure across the Southern CONUS will gradually retrograde to the west by late the remainder of next week. The combination of the deep, tropical moisture in place (PWATs over 2") and subtle shortwaves rounding the eastern edge of the ridge mid to late week will create medium chance (40-60%) for afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each afternoon/evening. As has been the case for much of the month of August, diurnal heating will warm temperatures into the upper 80s to lower 90s, with a moderately unstable environment developing each afternoon. Thus, we will be primed for pulse convection each day (some of which could be strong to marginally severe) capable of locally heavy downpours and gusty winds,

In addition, highs peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the 70s will create peak heat index values between 98 to 105 degrees each afternoon. NWS Heat Risk highlights a moderate (Level 2/4) threat level in most locations Tuesday through Friday, with a few of the metro areas (MSL, DCU, HSV) in the Major (Level 3/4) category.

AVIATION

(06Z TAFS) Issued at 1254 AM CDT Sat Aug 8 2026

Other than the river valley fog that has developed over the past couple of hours, VFR conditions were noted at the terminals at issuance. This will largely remain, but there is the potential for patchy fog to continue to develop where rainfall occurred yesterday. Therefore, continued the temporary reduction in VIS and CIGs to MVFR between 8-12Z this morning for both TAF sites. This will be monitored, but widespread dense fog is not anticipated at this time. Any fog will lift and dissipate through mid-morning. Then, as was the case yesterday, low to medium (30-60%) chances of showers and storms will be the focus today and into this evening. The stronger storms that may develop have the potential of bringing heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds as well as lower VIS and CIGs. Although, confidence in the exact timing and location of these is low. Expecting this overall activity to then wane through this evening with little to no showers or storms by midnight tonight.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.