textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

- There is a low (10-30%) chance for additional showers and thunderstorms overnight as a weak cold front enters the region. The coverage of showers and storms will be most concentrated south of the TN River tomorrow.

- After a brief period of dry weather late Friday into Saturday morning, additional rounds of rain and thunderstorms are forecast into the long term period with high rain chances Sunday-Monday night.

NEAR TERM

(Today) Issued at 455 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

IFR to MVFR CIGS are in place over northern Alabama and portions of southern Tennessee at this hour. A weak cold front continues to edge further south and is currently located just north of Bedford and Coffee county in Tennessee. Some very isolated to scattered showers continue to affect Moore and northern Franklin counties in Tennessee. Dewpoints behind this front drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The remnants of TC Arthur are currently over southern Georgia and will continue to move east into southeastern Georgia this morning. As the cold front continues to slowly move south, most guidance does show some shower activity (low chance) around daybreak passing through northern Alabama. Temperatures when you wake up today should start out in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees.

A low chance (10-30%) of additional showers and maybe a few thunderstorms is hinted at by guidance south of the Tennessee River the remainder of the morning hours into the afternoon hours today. However, shear looks too weak (20-25 knots) for any strong to severe thunderstorm activity (though some SBCAPE of 1000 to 2000 J/KG is shown in model guidance) our far southeast counties.

The center of a modified Canadian anticyclone will build southeastward from the central Plains into the Lower OH Valley behind the front through the day, forcing the leading edge of the drier continental airmass further southward through our CWFA as we lose daytime heating this evening.

SHORT TERM

(Friday night through Sunday night) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

Surface high pressure will continue to spread southeastward into the southern Appalachians on Friday night, with a light northeast wind allowing both air temps and dewpoints to fall into the l-m 60s. Thus, we expect dry conditions (after any afternoon showers and storms dissipate south of the TN River), with patchy fog in a few of our normally fog-prone locations. During the day on Saturday, the stalled boundary to our south will begin to lift northward as a warm front in response to the east-northeastward movement of a mid-level shortwave trough across the Great Basin and subsequent development of a rather impressive surface low across eastern CO. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may develop over the course of the afternoon as the moist airmass begins to return northward, but at this point it appears as if convection will be most concentrated across the southwestern portion of the forecast area (where POPs are in the 20-30% range). As the lee low begins to migrate east-northeastward across KS on Saturday night, low-level SSE flow will gradually strengthen with dewpoints rising into the lower 70s region-wide by Sunday morning. Although a few showers may occur at times, POPs remain rather low and in the 10-20% range.

On Sunday and Sunday night, models suggest that the dominant synoptic surface low will advance further east-northeastward across the Mid-MS Valley and into northern OH (in conjunction with the mid-level shortwave trough). This configuration will induce strengthening southwesterly flow throughout the depth of the tropospheric column across our region, with PWAT values surging back into the 1.8-2" range. A fairly widespread coverage of thunderstorms is expected to evolve over the course of the day from southern MS northeastward into TN/KY (perhaps aided by an MCV from a nocturnal MCS over the MO Valley), but although rich tropical moisture may lead to very high rainfall rates, cells will be moving rather quickly to the northeast in this regime, which should limit concern for flooding. However, due to higher CAPE and stronger low/mid-level flow, storms may be capable of producing more frequent wind gusts in the 40-50 MPH range. Although afternoon convection across the open warm sector will exhibit a weakening trend and should dissipate shortly after sunset, there are indications that a large MCS (perhaps including multiple bowing segments) may evolve in the vicinity of the trailing cold front Sunday evening from eastern KS into western IL. The leading edge of this system may approach our forecast area prior to sunrise on Monday, at which point the WSW low-level jet should be peaking in the 35-40 knot range. Fortunately, forecast soundings suggest that convection may be slightly elevated above a strong low-level inversion, but if this does not materialize, this activity would carry a risk for both severe wind gusts and perhaps a few tornadoes as well.

LONG TERM

(Monday through Thursday) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

A high coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to continue throughout the day on Monday and into Monday night as a surface low ejects northeastward off the coast of New England and a trailing cold front slips slowly southeastward. Although multiple rounds of convection may ultimately have an impact on instability, forecast soundings indicate a favorable combination of high CAPE and sufficiently strong low/mid-level flow that would be conducive for organized/severe thunderstorms during this timeframe. As for the remainder of the period, there are subtle differences within the suite of guidance regarding how far south the cold front (and a reinforcing surge of drier continental air in its wake) will push before eventually stalling. Due to this uncertainty, we will maintain POPs in the 20-40% range (highest during the afternoon). Fortunately, it appears as if the storm environment for the rest of the week will feature lighter low/mid- level flow and shear (reducing the risk for organized convection). However, lapse rates aloft will remain steep in the west- northwest flow regime, and high CAPE may still yield a risk for locally damaging downburst winds on a daily basis. Temperatures will fluctuate very little throughout the extended period, with highs in the l-m 80s and lows in the m-u 60s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAFS) Issued at 555 AM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

CIGS predominantly below 1000 feet will continue at both terminals with some brief MVFR conditions, SHRA, or MVFR VSBYS possible through 15Z. MVFR CIGS should hold on at both terminals through 17 or 18Z, before becoming VFR. Winds are expected to become slightly northwesterly in the afternoon, before becoming light and variable later in the evening.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.