textproduct: Huntsville

KEY MESSAGES

Updated at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

- There is a low to medium risk of strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening across the TN Valley.

- There is a low to medium risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday.

- Cooler conditions return Thursday, but temperatures should warm as we go into the weekend.

NEAR TERM

(Tonight) Issued at 144 PM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Current radar and satellite show an ongoing MCS moving from Arkansas into Mississippi and Tennessee supported by the passage of a mid level shortwave. Ahead of the shortwave, skies have remained mostly overcast, yet this has done little to dissuade boundary layer destabilization. With surface flow ahead of the MCS from the SSW, this has allowed temps to rise into the high 60s to low 70s, with dew points surging into the low to mid 60s. SPC mesoanalysis indicates around 1000 J/KG of SBCAPE currently present with additional destabilization forecast ahead of the MCS. This will maintain the severe threat for the MCS as it moves through the TN Valley. 0-6 KM Shear around 35-45 KTS will work to sustain updrafts. With recent HIRES models indicating the potential for bowing segments as the MCS moves through, damaging winds will be one of the primary threats. Mid level lapse rates above 7 C/KM will support hail as well. Secondary threats will be the potential for flash flooding and tornadoes. While HREF LLMP keeps us below FFG areawide, periods of heavy rainfall, especially during rush hour, could leave to ponding of water on roadways. As for tornadoes, this will be dependent on local storm interactions that will be evaluated in real time.

Storms look to move through from about 2-9 PM with stratiform rain lingering behind the heaviest convection. Rain and low clouds look to linger through the night, keep our lows in the low 60s.

SHORT TERM

(Tuesday through Thursday) Issued at 941 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

Behind the passage of the mid level short wave, we will remain in SW flow maintaining our warm and moist airmass through Wednesday. Dew points will remain in the 60s, temps in the mid 70s, and prolonged cloudy conditions. Low rain chances will remain on Tuesday before dry conditions arrive overnight into Wednesday.

Our attention in the short term will be directed to our next severe weather chance late Wednesday. High rain and storm chances will be supported by the arrival of a cut off low moving across the Gulf Coast. Uncertainty remains regarding the progression of the cut off low as it currently resides near Baja. Recent model trends have continued to slow the low down, bringing it slightly out of phase with the northern trough. This may limit the overall synoptic support for severe weather. Even so, models maintain around 500 J/KG of MUCAPE in the TN Valley as the low and associated front moves through, which is more than enough to support widespread thunderstorms. The orientation of front supports a linear storm mode making damaging winds the most apparent threat. We will have to continue to evaluate model trends as Wednesday draws closer to define additional details regarding timing and secondary hazards.

Beyond the passage of the front, strong WNW flow will develop through Thursday, briefly disrupting our warm and moist airmass. Though Thursday, dew points will drop back into the 30s with temps refined to the 60s, despite sunny skies. Fortunately these conditions will be short lived as we quickly rebound back to the 70s as we head into the weekend.

LONG TERM

(Wednesday night through Sunday) Issued at 1129 PM CDT Sun Mar 8 2026

Models continue to show the strong upper low proceeding east along the Gulf coast states after being pulled east by an amplified longwave trough axis extending northeast into southeastern Canada on late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. A weak surface low is shown in most guidance a bit east of this upper low. Very deep and strong forcing is show with this system. The strength of this forcing is fueled by strong coupled upper level jets. PWATS climb to over 1 inch by the early evening hours. Not an overly saturated sounding, but given strong shear and forcing, heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity is expected if surface based instability is realized.

Models have been fairly consistent that at least some SBCAPE will be in place during the late afternoon hours. How much has been more variable in ensemble guidance. Expect high rain and thunderstorm chances (70 to 90%) to develop during the evening hours. Either way, there will likely be at least a few hundred to around 500 J/KG in place during the afternoon hours before decreasing but remaining just enough instability to be surface based into the late evening hours potentially. With shear 0-6 km shear values between 40 and 70 knots, organized strong to severe storms look very possible, unless instability doesn't materialize. Damaging winds looks like the biggest threat. Helicity doesn't look strong until after the front pushes into the area behind the convection. The most widespread and heaviest storms/rainfall looks to be more over central and southern Alabama given the track of the surface low in most models and overall ensemble guidance. Still could get between 1 and 1.5 inches south of the Tennessee River given the current track. If the surface low trends further north in future guidance, a more widespread severe and heavy rainfall threat could materialize.

Rainfall and thunderstorm activity will likely last through the overnight hours into early Thursday morning before exiting into Georgia and the Carolinas by noon on Thursday. Colder air will quickly move into the area behind the front as temperature drop into the upper 30s to lower 40s. It will be much colder on Thursday with highs only reaching the 55 to 60 degree range despite abundant sunshine (20 to 25 degree difference from the day before). So, it should be a bit of a shock to the system after the recent warmth. A warmup will build back into the area as weak northwest flow becomes more zonal over the CONUS. It will still be cool though Friday night with lows dropping into the 40 to 45 degree range mainly.

Highs with sunny skies on Saturday should climb back into the lower to mid 70s. Continue southerly to southwesterly low level flow will help bring more moisture back into the area. This should help lows warm into the upper 40s to around 55 degrees. A warming trend will continue through next weekend, with no rainfall expected.

AVIATION

(18Z TAFS) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Mar 9 2026

MVFR ceilings will be in place through a majority of the TAF period. Around 20Z, an area of storms will move in from west to east. As the storms move through, low IFR to LIFR ceilings and visibilities will be present along with a high chance for lightning and convective wind gusts. The most favorable timeframe for terminal impacts will be from 21Z-2Z. Storm intensity will die down after 2Z, however light rain and low MVFR clouds are forecast to remain through most of the night and into the morning on Thursday.

HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

AL...None. TN...None.