textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. An elevated to significant fire risk exists over the mountains in Kern and southeastern Tulare Counties Friday and Saturday.
2. Low pressure will approach the area tomorrow, bringing lower temperatures and increased wind.
3. Temperatures will rebound over the weekend and continue to climb into next week.
DISCUSSION
A low pressure system will approach the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. However, low PWAT values will limit both the chances of precipitation and accumulation, with any snow confined to areas above 6,000 feet. Chances of snow are 10-20% overnight Wednesday, with accumulations not likely to exceed an inch. In the Valley, abundant surface moisture will keep fog as a possibility, with chances of visibilities less than a quarter-mile remaining at 10-20% tonight and tomorrow. The low's arrival in tandem with drier air will provide improved ventilation and evaporation that should help to remove some of that moisture and decrease fog chances into the weekend.
The low is expected to retrograde and stall off the southern California coast after its initial passage, while a ridge will gradually build over the area. This will provide warm and dry weather as we reach the weekend, with guidance showing a warming trend, with the Valley having a 50% or greater chance of highs above 75 on Monday. Fire weather is a concern in southeastern Tulare and eastern Kern counties Friday and Saturday, where increased northeasterly winds, higher temperatures, and drier air will create elevated to significant fire risk. The hot-dry-windy index is currently forecast to be above the 75th percentile Friday, above the 90th Saturday, and above the 95th on Sunday. Fire weather precautions should be taken in these areas.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected throughout the Valley for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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