textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Major Heat Risk developing Thursday for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Slopes and Desert, with an Extreme Heat Warning through next Monday.
2. Prolonged heat is expected to affect the SJ valley this weekend and a Heat Advisory or Extreme Heat Warning is likely.
3. Seasonably dry conditions to prevail through the week, with no monsoon moisture expected in the mountains. Along with well above normal temperatures, this will produce elevated fire weather concerns late this week into early next week.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave trough is sliding over the ridge of high pressure dominating the West leading to the ridge to retrograde west. At the same time, the ridge will strengthen into the weekend leading to a gradual warmup. Major Heat Risk and even areas of Extreme Heat Risk will dominate the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Slopes and Desert leading to an Extreme Heat Warning through next Monday.
However, the model runs continue to back off on the heat in the Valley with a 10 to 30 percent chance of highs of 105 degrees on Friday and Saturday with Moderate Heat Risk. The chances go up on Sunday to 15 to 45 and Monday and Tuesday to 20 to 50 percent in the Valley. The Valley likely will see a Heat Advisory be issued for Saturday through the weekend into early next week if the probabilities hold up. CPC continues to favor above average temperatures at 60 to 70 percent in the 6-10 day outlook and 50 to 60 in the 8-14 day outlook.
There is a fire concern through the weekend due to the warmup with minimum RH values dropping a few percentage points. Winds will mostly be light and diurnal in the Valley with afternoon gusts along the Sierra Crest and Mojave Slopes and Desert.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337>339.
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