textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Temperatures will be normal to slightly below normal through the weekend before below average by the middle of next week.
2. Precipitation chances may return again by next weekend.
DISCUSSION
The 500mb heights will continue to transition into a troughing pattern through today and into tomorrow, leading to Valley highs in the low 90s and upper 80's this afternoon and cooling further into the low to mid 80's by tomorrow. These conditions are expected to hold through the rest of this week as the trough maintains its position over the west coast of the CONUS. MinRHs are expected to be dry this afternoon through the transition, and are likely to rise from tomorrow through the rest of this week. RHs for the Valley will be 15-25% today and are forecast to rise to 35-45% through Friday, while the Desert will likely see single digits through Wednesday before they improve on Thursday into the weekend.
The next chances for precipitation continues to show up through Labor Day weekend as potential for the tropical disturbance east of Hurricane Karina to develop into a tropical system in the next couple days. Both the Euro and GFS models continue to have solutions where this system comes up north along the Baja peninsula and into Central and Southern California by this weekend into early next week. Current probabilities for rainfall in our area are low during this time, but the potential exists for more significant precipitation. The confidence for this event remains low as the system that may bring this rainfall has yet to be named and given a Cone of Uncertainty that would assist in determining whether or not it would come close enough to produce large amounts of rainfall for Southern and Central California or stay out to sea. This situation continues to be monitored and will be updated throughout the week.
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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