textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low pressure trough moves through California today, bringing cooler temperatures and a possibility for precipitation along the Sierra Nevada crest.

2. A ridge will build over our area by the middle of next week, leading to temperatures well above average for an extended period of time.

DISCUSSION

The low pressure trough that brought in today's cooler temperatures and the activity over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon will begin to move eastwards tonight and is expected to be fully out of California by Wednesday with a ridge building in its place. This pattern change will lead to a warming and drying trend that will push temperatures across our CWA well above seasonal norms, as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal by this weekend. This would put the San Joaquin Valley back into the upper 90's

These temperatures will bring Moderate Heat Risk back to the Valley starting on Thursday, becoming widespread by this weekend. There is also a 30-50% chance for triple digits on Sunday and Monday in the Bakersfield area and much of the southwestern side of the Valley. And this ridge appears to not be moving any time soon, so these temperatures and Moderate Heat Risk is likely to keep steady through early next week. The Climate Prediction Center also has above normal temperatures is both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks with our CWA in the 80-90% probability category.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.