textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Extreme Heat Warning continues for the Mojave Desert and Indian Wells Valley through Monday evening. Major HeatRisk expected with afternoon highs 108 to 112 degrees each day.

2. High pressure over the region will maintain temperatures near season averages for the remainder of Central California before hotter conditions appear late next week.

3. Mainly dry conditions prevail until next week.

DISCUSSION

High pressure remains in control of our weather, although with a dry southwest flow aloft. Triple digit heat persists in the Mojave Desert and parts of the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday. The chances of another triple digit reading on Sunday are at 45-55 percent, mainly Fresno southward. Although, highs slightly lower to the upper 90s in much of the SJ Valley on Monday and Tuesday with lower probabilities of highs at least 100 degrees (15-25 percent).

Hotter temperatures arrive by the middle of the week. The probabilities of triple digit readings in the valley rise to 80 to 90 percent, except closer to 50 percent towards Merced, on Thursday and 85-95 percent for Friday into next weekend. In addition, the probability of a maximum temperature of at least 105 degrees in the Central Valley rise to 30-40 percent on Thursday and rises to 55-65 percent Friday into next weekend. This will also correspond to Major Heat Risk in some valley locations by Friday with more widespread coverage by next Saturday. As for the Mojave Desert, they will see a high probability of widespread highs of at least 105 degrees and a return of Major HeatRisk. Low temperatures will be uncomfortable for much of the population in the major cities of the San Joaquin Valley (including Bakersfield and Fresno) and much of the desert during this period with lows in the 70s to near 80 degrees. Minimum humidity will be low in the hottest locations during this period, or 10-20 percent in most areas, with values down to 5-10 percent in the desert.

Latest CPC outlooks continue to show a high likelihood of above average temperatures for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. The latest 8-14 day precipitation outlook shows a slight tilt in the odds towards above average for Kern County and much of Southern CA. We will continue to monitor for the potential of another monsoon moisture intrusion, but we are looking at dry conditions to continue through next weekend with 10 percent or lower chance of precipitation throughout our forecast area.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337-339.