textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Desert Slopes in effect through Tuesday morning.

2. 5 to 15 percent chance of Thunderstorms on Tuesday.

3. Cooler and unsettled weather Tuesday with snow above 7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada.

4. Warm up anticipated late this weekend into early next week with high confidence for at least Moderate Heat Risk in the valley areas.

DISCUSSION

Showers continue to creep closer to the San Joaquin Valley and will move through the area overnight into Tuesday morning as the cutoff low continues to move onshore. Snow remains a possibility in the higher elevation as there is a 40 to 70 percent chance of 2 inches or more above 8,000 feet. As the day progresses, there is a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms in the San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada. Winds will remain gusty in Eastern Kern County although a Wind Advisory is in effect until 8 AM for the Mojave Slopes.

As the low moves out on Wednesday, a ridge of high pressure moves in. The ridge will strengthen into the weekend with Sunday at a 25 to 45 percent chance of triple digits. Monday looks to be hot at a 75 to 85 percent chance of triple digits with a 20 to 40 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees. Next Tuesday looks to remain warm with a 60 to 65 percent chance of triple digits. The high probabilities of triple digits here in early May brings Moderate to Major Heat Risk to the area. This warmup lines up with the CPC going with a 80 to 90 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook and a 60 to 70 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California, except in and near thunderstorms, where MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected. Surface Wind Gusts G35KT expected across the Tehachapi Range and Mojave Desert through 12Z Tuesday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ337-339.