textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1. The warming temperatures will continue through late this week, becoming triple digits in some parts of the Valley.

2. Hot and dry conditions this week will create increased fire risk across the region.

3. Cooler temperatures and windy conditions into the weekend.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The ridge that is currently centered over New Mexico is continuing to keep the region warm. These higher temperatures will last until Friday. Today and tomorrow, expect temperatures to be in the upper 90s in the Valley. Temperatures in the Mojave Desert will be warmer, with California City having a 72% Probability of Exceedance (PoE) 100 degrees and the city of Ridgecrest at a 96% PoE of 100. There is very good agreement between models that the low pressure system will begin to move through the West Coast on Friday and into the weekend. This will get the temperatures throughout the San Joaquin Valley to fall below normals. Most cities within the Valley will be above 85 degrees, and only a 10% PoE of 95 degrees on Friday. Saturday and Sunday those temperatures continue to cool, with the PoE of 90 degrees only at 10% for the Central San Joaquin Valley. These chances increase slightly in the areas of Bakersfield and Delano, but it is still rather pleasant.

There continues to be low RH for the Valley today and tomorrow. The valley will see RH between 20-30%, while the Mojave Desert sits 8-10%. As such, there is an elevation fire risk in place.

While these seasonably cool temperatures are something to talk about, the real headline here is the winds. For the windy zones of Mojave, expect a 50-60% probability of for maximum wind gusts greater than 55 MPH on Friday, with that probability increasing to 70-80% probability of wind gusts greater than 55 MPH on Saturday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Strong winds at and near KBFL: 310 at 11 kts, with gusts to 18 kts until 01Z. 310 at 12 kts with gusts to 19 kts beginning 21Z Thursday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for CAZ298-299-595. Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ300.