textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures continue to warm through Friday.

2. Minor to Elevated Heat Risk across the area throughout the week.

3. Increased fire risk through the weekend, particularly Saturday.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Quasi-zonal flow and ridging are keeping conditions calm and leading to a steady increase in temperatures. Lows tonight are expected to be in the upper 50s and low 60s across the Valley, while highs Friday are expected to be in the mid 90s to low 100s. This will create elevated heat risk across most of the area. Be sure to take appropriate heat precautions and check in on vulnerable people and animals.

More dynamic weather is approaching. The first system will affect the area this weekend as it passes through the Pacific Northwest. It will bring cooler, drier air, which will help to break the warming trend and bring more pleasant temperatures in the mid 80s to low 90s this weekend. The downside of this will be increased fire risk, particularly Saturday, when the combination of drier air and stronger winds will create concerning conditions, particularly in eastern Tulare and Kern Counties.

A second system is expected in the middle of next week, though clusters are not yet in agreement on its track staying north of the area and simply bringing cooler and drier air or tracking south and bringing thunderstorm chances. As of now, about 60% of clusters have the system dipping far enough south to create an inside slider event. Most models have any precipitation chances confined to the northern half of the area. Regardless of its track, the system will follow close enough behind the first system to keep temperatures from increasing too much, which will help the area stay around climatological normals for this time of year.

While temperatures are quite warm, lakes, rivers, and streams are still running very cold, with lake temperatures in the upper 60s and much colder where water is entering from higher elevations. These temperatures pose significant risk to both human and animal swimmers; appropriate cold water safety should be practiced at all times.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.