textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. The warming temperatures will continue through late this week, becoming triple digits in the Valley by Tuesday.

2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire risk across the region.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

After zonal flow being the dominate pattern today, ridging will start to strengthen tomorrow into Wednesday as an area of high pressure moves in from the southeast into Central California. This will result in a warming trend that will have Valley highs back in triple digits by Tuesday through at least Thursday. This pattern will also dry out the region, leading to 15-20% RH's in the Valley and back into the single digits for the Mojave Desert. This along with the hot temperatures will lead to increased fire risk for much of the region.

Several consecutive models runs show increasing confidence of a trough moving through the west coast by Friday, leading to another slight cooldown for our CWA through the next weekend. Highs for the Valley from Friday through next weekend show temperatures in the low 90's with the northern portion dipping below 90 degrees on Saturday. This would be about 3 to 5 degrees below normal for this time of year. That same day, a marine push from the north may occur, leading to slightly improved afternoon RH's for much of the region. Long term models another warm up starting by next Monday into the beginning of July.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.