textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend into weekend before cooling early next week.

2. Dry conditions will continue to prevail into early next week. Next best chance of rain is late next week.

3. Foggy conditions this Morning. Dense Fog expected again Saturday Morning.

DISCUSSION

A high-pressure ridge will remain over the region, bringing Tule fog each morning through mid-next week. Dense fog will return to the San Joaquin Valley this evening. The highest probabilities for dense fog remain along the Highway 198 corridor (Hanford to Visalia) and the Highway 99 corridor (Kingsburg to Delano). Further analysis will be conducted today to finalize the aerial coverage for tonights Dense Fog Advisory.

The Weekend through Mid-Week Outlook: Dry weather, near-normal temperatures, and morning fog will persist for the next 5 to 6 days. High temperatures near 70 degrees are expected through Wednesday (90-100% Ensemble Probability of Exceedance). Thursday will serve as a transition day toward cooler temperatures, with a significant cooling trend taking hold by Friday.

In the Lon-Term, a disturbance is projected to move into the Pacific Northwest mid-week, bringing an Atmospheric River that will sweep south into Central California. The earliest precipitation is expected Thursday morning, with probabilities favoring 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain starting after sunrise on Thursday. Rainfall totals reaching 1 inch in 24 hours show increasing probability toward next weekend as the core moisture axis crosses the area.

AVIATION

Visibilities improving gradually with lingering MVFR conditions this morning. While VFR is expected after 22Z Friday, a return to MVFR conditions across the San Joaquin Valley will be seen after 06Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Dense Fog returns after 10Z-12Z Saturday with the best changes (30-50 percent) of reaching IFR to LIFR visibilities in fog around KJHO and KVIS.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Friday November 6 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.