textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Upper 90s to triple digits expected to remain prominent through this week before a cooldown over the weekend.
2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk through out the forecast area into the weekend
3. Heat Advisory has been extended until Friday at 10 PM.
DISCUSSION
Near record temperatures across Central California this Monday Afternoon. Even with a slight drop in the Heat Dome strength (from a very weak disturbance), temperatures manged to reach the triple digit mark this afternoon. At his point, the Heat Dome will rebound as the heat will dominate the West Coast for the remainder of the week. With little change expected for several days, will allow the Heat Advisory to remains in effect as triple digit heat will not exit the region until the end of the week.
Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees on Tuesday, as the heat dome begins rebounding will see a slight rise. While percentage above 50 percent will be spotty, those percentages will see further growth going into Wednesday. At this point, temperatures have a better chance of reaching 100 degrees as ensemble model analysis places the 90th percentile of temperatures well into triple digit territory. The state of the atmosphere will not change until Saturday when a disturbance crosses the region and most of Central California.
Ensemble model analysis is showing some uncertainty of the disturbances strength, they do attempt to signal in the direction of a disturbance. Ensemble temperatures is showing a sign toward cooler conditions and bringing relief to Central California. It is still wait and see how next weekend will develop as the heat remains in the short term.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ300>322.
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