textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. The heat trend continues with temperatures about 10-15 degrees above average for the next several days.

2. Moderate to Major Heat Risk in the Central Valley through Wednesday. Heat Advisory has been extended further to 11 PM Wednesday.

3. Dry and calm conditions will persist for the week ahead.

DISCUSSION

The weather must be caught up in the baseball playoffs as things continue to remain heated. Our Heat Advisory begins today as the above average temperatures continue into next week. Triple digit probabilities are at 25 to 30 percent today for most Valley locations with Bakersfield at a whopping 75 percent chance. However, Bakersfield has a 10 percent chance today of tying its record of 103 degrees last set in 2024. Luckily, the rest of the Valley's record for today, October 3rd, is 105 to 106 which is less than 5 percent. The Desert, however, has less than a 5 percent chance of triple digits through Tuesday.

Sunday looks to be the warmest day with a 65 to 80 percent chance of triple digits for most of the Valley. However, Monday has lower probabilities but still remains high at 30 to 60 percent chance. As for the records, Bakersfield has a 20 percent chance of 104 degrees which will tie the record set all the way back in 1933. Monday, however, the records for much of the Valley is 100 degrees which was set in 2024. Triple digit probabilities gradually drop from 40 to 50 percent on Tuesday to 10 to 30 percent on Thursday.

However, the ensembles are agreeing that the ridge that is keeping us very warm will weaken by Friday. A shortwave trough will strengthen as it slides in Friday into next weekend bringing temperatures back down. Precipitation chances with this trough is at 25 percent chance or less for the Valley. However, the CPC outlook keeps things dry as the 8-14 day outlook shows a 33 to 50 percent chance of below average temperatures. Temperature-wise, the above average temperatures continues to defend its title with a 70 to 80 percent chance in the 6-10 day outlook and a 60 to 70 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ300>322.