textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will be normal to slightly below normal through the weekend before below average by the middle of next week.

2. Remaining moisture over the region bring a 5-15% chance of thunderstorms from the foothills to the Sierra Nevada Crest on Saturday

3. Precipitation chances return again in the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Latest radar scans shows the moisture that brought a trace of rain on Friday is slowing moving out of our area as the trough continues to slide into the area. However, temperatures rebound Saturday through weekend close to normal as cloud coverage diminishes. There is a 70-100 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees over the weekend before decreasing to 50 to 90 percent on Monday. Thunderstorm chances diminish over the weekend from 5 to 15 percent on Saturday to 5 percent and below Sunday into next week.

However, temperatures take a dip Tuesday as another trough slides in. Probabilities of 90 degrees drops to 10 to 35 percent from Tuesday to Thursday for most of the Valley. In addition, some moisture from what will become Hurricane Karina will be picked up by the trough and transported to our area. Because of this, there is a 10 to 25 percent chance of any rain accumulation every day between Tuesday and next weekend in both the Valley and the Sierra Nevada. Some of the moisture may even reach the Mojave Desert as there is a 25 percent chance of a hundredth of an inch of rain on Wednesday. Thunderstorm probabilities remain very low with this influx of moisture next week. The CPC has a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook and a 33-40 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook. However, the temperature outlooks shift from a 33 to 50 percent chance of below average in the 6-10 day outlook to a gradient from near normal to 33-40 percent chance of above average temperatures in portions of Kern County in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. However, 5 to 15 percent probability of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada between 18Z Saturday and 3Z Sunday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.