textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming and drying trend is expected this weekend with temperatures rising to above average.

2. Another low pressure system brings strong winds through Friday morning within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

4. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins early next week.

DISCUSSION

Upper level disturbance continues to move across the Great Basin as seen on upper air analysis and satellite imagery. 24 Hour temperatures change has seen a drop on afternoon reading by an average of 4-6 degrees. In addition, wind gusts over the favored areas is seeing speeds of 30-45 mph this evening with max gusts reaching 55 mph this afternoon. Ridging will return to the area this weekend ahead of a more significant disturbance around the start of next week.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley will hit 70-90 percent south of Fresno County and 50-70 percent around Merced County. Therefore, will see widespread 80 degree readings on Saturday and approach 90 degrees near Bakersfield on Sunday as PoE rises slightly. Afterward, significant cooling will lower PoE of 85 degrees drops to 30-40 percent by the start of the work week with further cooling toward the middle of the week.

Onset of precipitation is being moved more into Monday and reaching Central California by early in the day. Probability of Measurable Precipitation of accumulating a tenth of a inch (0.10) will reach 15-25 percent between mid-day and late afternoon on Monday and increase to 25-35 percent by Monday Night. By Tuesday, Probabilities rise to almost 50 percent across the Sierra with Kern County at the lower end of the probability spectrum. At that time, will expect the bulk of the precipitation event. Based on the uncertainty of the ensemble upper-air analysis, will expect the precipitation probabilities to linger over Central California until early Wednesday. Due to the nature of a closed low circulation, the end of the forecast period will remain unsettled with possible precipitation extending through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting above G35KT across the Mojave Desert until 18Z Friday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337>339.