textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Above average temperatures continue across the region. Low minimum relative humidities, especially in the Sierra Nevada. 2. Precipitation chances will return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

As stated in yesterday evenings AFD, we are a broken record. Which is nice, since that means weather is benign, but Im sure will get rather annoying to read. Hopefully, I can make it a little bit more interesting. That ridge of high pressure over us will continue to stay in place until late next week. With it, expect the ground to begin to dry out and temperatures to be above normal. For the SJV, early November high temperatures are the high 60s to low 70s. The chance for temperatures to exceed 75 degrees today is 30-65% for the Valley, with the lower chances up north and the chances steadily increasing as you take the 99 heading south. Out in the Mojave, those chances are 80-85%.

Since the ridge is in place, theres not a lot of ways for moisture to get in, besides from soils in the Valley. This is apparent by the steady decrease of relative humidity within the Sierra Nevada. Today, the minimum relative humidity will be in the high teens, which then slowly become more widespread through the work week. However, despite the decreasing relative humidity in the Sierra Nevada, the winds are at most, up to 10 mph in the highest elevations. Down in the Valley, well actually see minimum relative humidity increasing from the mid 40s to the low 50s over the next few days, despite not having any systems coming in. This increase in humidity is from the soils releasing whatever moisture they do have. By the middle of the week, the minimum relative humidity will decrease in the Valley as the soils have released their excess moisture then. We continue to watch the possibility of another fog event for this evening. With this current model run, there is a 30% chance of visibility dropping below a quarter of a mile. Well continue to monitor the probability of dense fog making a reappearance, but expect that if anything gets issued today, itll be later in the evening.

Hey, since were on the topic of moisture, lets talk about our next round of it! Despite the ridges persistence, itll finally begin moving out by late next week. There are two systems we are currently watching; one that will move south and hit SoCal around Friday, quickly followed by another that is poised to surge moisture into the Valley. Measurable (0.01) rainfall could happen as soon as Saturday for the Sierra Nevada, as theyre sitting at a 20% chance. For the Valley, were most likely (20-50%) to see measurable rainfall by Sunday morning! Wahoo!! By the evening time, that measurable rainfall chance will increase to 50-75% for most of the CWA. Ridgecrest has a 25% chance of 0.01 of rain by 10pm next Sunday.

This is in line with what the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting. The 6-10 day outlook for precipitation is 70-80% chance for above normal precipitation in the Central Valley. Theyre also expecting temperatures to be above normal for a little bit longer, as the 6-10 day temperature outlook is 50-60% probability of above normal temperatures. The 8-14 day also leans warmer and wetter, as there is a 33-40% chance of warmer temperatures and a 50-60% chance of increased precipitation.

AVIATION

While stations remain in VFR to MVFR across the Valley, the chance of dense fog may still form starting from 08Z through 18Z Monday from just north of Delano through Merced County is up to 30%. For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 11/07/2026 14:42 EXPIRES: 11/08/2026 23:59

On Sunday November 8 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.