textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

DISCUSSION

The ridging that produced the triple digits across the Valley and Mojave Desert will strengthen slightly through tomorrow, leading to highs a couple degrees higher today. Lows at night fall in the upper 60's into the mid 70's for the Valley. Unfortunately for those in the Desert, West Side Hills and Sierra Foothills, sweating overnight may be more prominent with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. These conditions fall under the Moderate to Major Heat Risk categories, which affect much of the population without proper cooling like air conditioning. Make sure to keep that pillow cool.

That blistering oven heat will be short lived, as the ridge causing it will be pushed east by an incoming trough, which will lower temperatures in the Valley into the mid to upper 80's by Sunday. You will no longer be able to cook an egg on the sidewalk. Though, as this trough moves through the region on Friday, tight pressure gradients with its leading edge will cause strong winds along the Mojave Slopes and breezy conditions for the Valley. Current probabilities for 45 MPH gusts along the Mojave Slopes is 50-75% on Friday, and 30-50% on Saturday. This system is also likely to be a dry one, so while temperatures will be cooler, so will dew points, making the relative humidities remain stable through the week. So with the breezy winds and low minRHs, fire risk may be elevated, even as we transition to the shoulder season.

After this weekend, the 500mb heights are expected to retain a trough-like pattern through much of the work week, though the intensity is expected to be reduced from what we are likely to see this Friday, meaning temperatures will rise slightly while remaining in the upper 80's by Monday, then remaining steady through at least next Thursday as the pattern keeps its shape. Thankfully a cooldown is on the horizon.

The long term forecast is similar for the 6 to 10 day forecast, as the Climate Prediction has our area in likely near normal temperatures for that time period. This chances by the 8 to 14 day outlook, becoming leaning above normal for temperatures, meaning a new ridge may build in by that time period, though triple digits become less likely as we move deeper into September. There is high confidence that temperatures will be slightly above normal starting next Wednesday. Behold, thereth existseth an outlier in the model predicting a cooler solution with low confidence. Don't worry though, this means less likelihood of overheating through the end of da week. Yay!

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. A 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorm along the Sierra Nevada Crest from Yosemite to Tulare County from 19Z Thursday through 03Z Friday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300>317-319- 321.