textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week.

2. Red Flag Warning in effect for the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills of the Coastal Range through Monday evening with a Major Risk of Fire Danger expected to continue due to low relative humidity.

3. Warming trend throughout the week.

3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The inside slider trough that brought the gusty winds over the weekend has begun to move eastward into Nevada and Utah. There will still be breezy conditions today with winds forecasted to be between 5-10 MPH within the Valley itself. In addition to that, there is still low relative humidity (less than 20 percent) values across the San Joaquin Valley. Because of this, the Red Flag Warning will remain in effect for the SJV until tonight at 8PM.

Tuesday looks to begin the warm up across the valley, which will last through the end of the week. By Wednesday, there is a 90 percent chance to meet and exceed temperatures of 90 degrees throughout the entire Valley. There is a 10 percent chance to meet and exceed the mid 90s as well. Come Friday, there will be a 10 percent chance to meet and exceed temperatures of 100 degrees throughout the Valley. So while we cannot rule out these highs of 100, they are unexpected. In conjunction with that, there is low relative humidities once again, so take precautions as fire danger will continue to exist throughout the week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Low relative humidity (RH) values today, along with breezy conditions in the San Joaquin Valley and the West Side Hills along the Coastal Range today. There will be threats for fast- moving grass fires in these areas. Minimum RH values will persist as well, with most areas being under 15 percent RH. As such, the Red Flag Warning continues to be in effect until 8 PM Monday. Winds are not forecasted to be as strong as they were over the weekend. A warming and drying trend will be moving into Central California later this week. The RH in the valley areas are expected to be less than 15 percent until Thursday. This leads to elevated fire weather throughout the week.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ579-580.