textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Temperatures will gradually warm this week and rise back to around 5 degrees above average by Thursday. The temperatures will back down Friday into the weekend.
2. Breezy conditions take place over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through this week.
DISCUSSION
High temperatures were mainly in the upper 90's today, except for a high of 101 degrees at Fresno. Winds have decreased towards Lake Isabella, so we will let the Lake Wind Advisory expire at 11 PM PDT this evening. Dry conditions remain over the region with a dry southwest flow aloft and high pressure centered over the Great Basin into the Desert Southwest. Expect a slight warming trend to continue Wednesday and Thursday. The probability of triple digit highs in the Central Valley are at 30-40 percent for areas north of Fresno and 75-85 percent for Fresno southward on Wednesday. Higher chances are in store for Thursday before a slight lowering on Friday. In the Kern County desert, highs of 105 degrees or hotter have a probability at least 70-80 percent between Wednesday and Friday. Humidity will continue to trend a bit lower each day as we continue to warm across the region.
By this weekend, a slight lowering of temperatures will occur as a trough of low pressure and upper-level low pass over the Pacific Northwest. However, triple digit heat will continue in the warmest locations in the Mojave Desert with highs in the San Joaquin Valley in the 90s to near 100 degrees. Little change in weather will occur this weekend into early next week. Although, there is low confidence of the return of mountain thunderstorms, including up to a 10 percent chance of isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest as some mid-level monsoonal moisture moves in from the south-southeast.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
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