textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Red Flag Warning in Effect Friday 9 AM to Saturday 11 PM for the following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, and Lake Isabella.

2. Wind Advisory in Effect for Sierra Nevada Crest Friday 11 AM to Saturday 5 AM.

3. Dry and windy conditions create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in Eastern Kern and Southern Tulare Counties.

4. Cool down into the weekend will bring below normal temperatures.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures today will be in the upper 90s before we begin to experience our cool down. There is a trough that is approaching the Pacific Northwest that will begin to push the ridge out of the way, allowing temperatures to drop into a much more comfortable range. Tomorrow, temperatures will be in the low 90s (which is climatologically normal) across the San Joaquin Valley and continue to drop as we go into the weekend into a more below normal status. However, with this trough coming through, there will be strong winds associated with it. That, paired with low relative humidity values has necessitated a Red Flag Warning for Lake Isabella, Indian Wells Valley and the Kern County Desert. There is a 5-10% probability of thunderstorms this weekend within the highest peaks of the Sierra Nevada. In addition, it is expected that more people will be outside enjoying the nice weather and gearing up for the holiday weekend. Listen to local law enforcement and firefighters regarding burn bans, and firework bans to help negate the start and spread of new wildfires.

These windy conditions will also necessitate issuing of wind products, particularly along lakes sites. Take caution when driving or boating this weekend, as wind driven waves can overwhelm small water crafts or cause large trucks to teeter off balance.

Looking ahead, model guidance is suggesting that another low pressure system will make its way through the Pacific Northwest late next week and potentially into the Fourth Of July Weekend. The CPC is leaning towards below normal (33-40% chance) temperatures in their 6-10 day outlook.

Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Stronger winds of 10-12 kts at and near KBFL.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ298-299-595. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337- 339. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ323-326-328-330-331.