textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend through the end of the week. Cooling possible early next week.

2. Winds become gusty and from the east over the Sierra Crest and eastern Kern County Thursday into the weekend.

3. Along with dry conditions as Relative Humidity remains low, a Fire Weather Watch has been posted for the Kern County Mountains from Thursday through Friday.

4. A change in the weather will be in store early next week as a disturbance crosses the West and introduces unsettled conditions.

DISCUSSION

Visible satellite imagery shows the latest disturbance moving through the region and staying east of Central California. Therefore, the disturbance will only influence our temperatures and winds. At this point, the disturbance will push further east as a high pressure ridge builds over the West Coast. Clear skies and warming temperatures will dominate the period going into the weekend. One thing to note, a piece of energy moving around the ridge pattern will retrograde and drop toward Southern California by the end of the week. A Low pressure area will develop and generate strong east winds across the region. Along with low humidity across portions of the Kern County Mountains, a Fire Weather Watch has been posted for windy and dry conditions from Thursday through Friday.

The Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees remains at near zero percent outside of the Mojave Desert, though the PoE of reaching 90 degrees still exist. The cold air surge from the latest disturbance is now being modified as temperatures make their slow rise through the week. The warming trend will be gradual, as the PoE for 90 degrees does not exceed 30 percent until Friday. By Saturday, PoE for 90 degrees rises to between 60 and 80 percent, while the PoE for 95 degrees still remains below 10 percent. Expect temperatures in the lower 90s by Saturday before slight cooling trend begins on Sunday.

Ensemble model analysis indicates some uncertainty regarding the strength of a disturbance approaching the West Coast on Monday. While ensemble models coming into better agreement with the next developing disturbance that may arrive around Tuesday. Ensembles do signal toward cooler temperatures and increase the probability of precipitation around Tuesday. Therefore, a change in the weather will be in store around Day 7.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Friday evening for CAZ596-597.