textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Moderate chance for Dense Fog and visibilities less than one-quarter mile in the Central Valley Sunday morning.

2. Above average temperatures and low relative humidities expected through the weekend, the latter especially in the Sierra Nevada.

3. Precipitation chances return next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Another Foggy morning across Central California as a ridge of high-pressure continues its domination of the West Coast. While very patchy, the usual suspect area between Highways 41 and 43 from Fresno to Corcoran formed this morning with very hazardous driving conditions until just before 10 AM PST. Short range ensemble visibility analysis is showing re-development Sunday morning with a more favored area from Madera County northward through Merced County. Further analysis will be conducted today to finalize the aerial coverage for tonights Dense Fog Advisory. Early indications point toward placing areas north of Kern County in the latest advisory.

The Weekend through Mid-Week Outlook: Still dry with near- normal temperatures (slight warming trend) and the continuation of morning fog. Ensemble analysis shows this pattern persisting through at least Thursday (Day 5). High temperatures near 70 degrees are expected through Wednesday (90-100% Ensemble Probability of Exceedance). By Thursday, the warming trend will place the San Joaquin Valley is a high likelihood of reaching the upper 70s before the next storm. At this point, the transition toward cooler conditions will start on Friday with low probabilities of reaching 70 degrees not occurring until Sunday. By than, probability of measurable precipitation covers the entire Central California with high likelihood of heavier accumulation starting to enter Merced, Mariposa and Yosemite.

In the Lon-Term, a disturbance is projected to move into the Pacific Northwest mid-week, bringing an Atmospheric River that will sweep south into Central California. The earliest precipitation is expected after day-break on Friday, with probabilities favoring 0.25 to 0.50 inches of rain starting closer to Saturday morning. Rainfall totals reaching 1 inch in 24 hours show increasing probability toward end of next weekend (and favoring the Sierra Nevada) as the core moisture axis crosses the area.

AVIATION

VFR with patches of MVFR conditions in haze expected through 06Z-08Z Sunday before more widespread MVFR conditions return. High Resolution Ensemble Visibility analysis is showing a resurgence of fog starting after 08Z Sunday. While some uncertainty exist for VLIFR conditions south of KHJO, will expect dense fog formation across the San Joaquin Valley from just north of Delano through Merced County from 10Z through 18Z Sunday. For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Saturday November 7 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.