textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures drop more on Monday before a warmup begins on Tuesday.

2. High wind gusts over 35 mph are likely into early Monday over the San Luis Reservoir with a Lake Wind Advisory issued. Gusts also increase for the Mojave Desert and adjacent slopes as well as the West Side Mountains with a Wind Advisory in effect.

3. There is around a 15 to 25 percent chance of an inch of snow above 9,000 feet through Wednesday night. Snow levels drop to 7,000 to 7,500 feet overnight.

DISCUSSION

A fall chill is in the air as the trough continues to makes it way through the area. However, the precipitation amounts for Sunday were a tenth of an inch or less for the Sierra Nevada and the Desert as most of the precipitation was towards San Diego and to the east towards Las Vegas. However, some moisture will continue to wrap around on Monday with some showers over the Sierra Nevada. However, thunderstorm chances are at 10 percent or less on Monday. Despite temperatures cooling even more overnight and snow levels dropping to 7,000 to 7,500 feet, there is a 15 to 25 percent chance of an inch of snow at and above 9,000 feet.

Monday will be the coolest day of the week with a 40 to 60 percent chance of highs hitting 70 degrees. Winds will decrease overnight into Monday morning. Temperatures begin to climb Tuesday as the trough slides away and a ridge slides in. This ridge will strengthen through the week that by next weekend it will cover most of the western U.S. The above average temperatures is like a zombie in not wanting to leave as there is a 30 to 50 percent chance of 90s from Friday to next Sunday. This lines up with the CPC continuing to show a 40 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures. Sadly, no precipitation is in the forecast after Monday for the next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Monday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ300. Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Monday for CAZ304-308-313.