textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend into weekend before cooling early next week.

2. Dry conditions will continue to prevail into early next week. Next best chance of rain is late next week.

3. Foggy conditions possible early Friday Morning.

DISCUSSION

Tule Fog! Its here and expected to influence the morning commute for several days. While Dense Fog will form again Thursday Night/ Friday Morning, the coverage and intensity is yet to be determined. As of late this Thursday Morning, except for an area from Alpaugh to Earlimart and south to Allensworth in Kings, Tulare, and Kern Counties, skies have cleared out. A ridge of high pressure remains over California. Only uncertainty for fog development early Friday morning will be the strong winds aloft during that period. Further analysis today will allow us to make the determination if a Dense Fog Advisory will be warranted Tonight.

With a Ridge of High Pressure dominating the West Coast during the next 5 days; dry weather, near normal temperatures, and foggy mornings will be the rule. Ensemble Probability of Exceedance of reaching 70 degrees is topping out between 90 and 100 percent through next Wednesday. Therefore, will expect comfortable conditions ahead of a storm pushing in toward the end of next week.

Long term analysis is showing a disturbance making its way into the Pacific Northwest toward the middle of next week. Moisture analysis indicates that an Atmospheric River will target the Northwest before sweeping south during the latter half of next week. The earliest onset of precipitation will enter Central California Thursday Morning. Yet, the probability of measurable precipitation in the range of a quarter to half an inch will have a start time after sunrise on Thursday. In addition, due to its Atmospheric River origins, probability of reaching one inch in a 24 hour period shows signs of increasing once the axis of highest moisture sweeps across Central California closer to next weekend.

AVIATION

Conditions improving to MVFR with most of the Valley seeing VFR conditions after 21Z Today. Mountain obscured IFR conditions will continue through out the day over the Tehachapi Range. Will expect a return to MVFR conditions after 04Z-06Z Friday as Probabilities go up to 30-40 percent. A 5-15 percent chance of IFR/LIFR conditions will be observed near 12Z Friday with slightly higher percentages near KVIS to KHJO.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Thursday November 5 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.