textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (we got some action AND humor)! Some isolated thunderstorms have developed in Fresno County and along the Sierra Nevada Foothills (boom boom crash). Precipitation is currently spreading over the forecast area this morning and continuing into Thursday. Isolated cells have been producing strong updrafts and energy to possibly produce pea sized hail. The bulk of the precipitation will occur Wednesday afternoon until Thursday. Many locations can expect a total of one quarter to one half inch in the San Joaquin Valley, while there is near 60 percent chance of exceeding a half inch. That is a good amount of H2O from the sky for this region! The Flood Watch remains in effect for much of Kern County and the higher terrain along the west side of the San Joaquin Valley up to southwestern Fresno County near Coalinga. Higher amounts of precipitation are likely to occur over the Sierra Nevada from the foothills to about 8,000 feet. While some nuisance flooding is also a possibility in these areas, we anticipate less runoff except near burn scars. We are still looking at a good chance for at least a few inches of snow above 8,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. We will continue the Winter Weather Advisory for these areas from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning. As cells continue to develop and move Southerly, isolated thunderstorms are possible in Kern County and into the mountains. As such, keep on the lookout for Special Weather Statements and advisories that are put out!

For Friday through next Tuesday, we are looking at continued cooler temperatures and mainly dry conditions. Although temperatures will warm up by several degrees for the weekend until Monday, we are projecting highs mainly in the 70s for the warmest locations. There is a slight chance of precipitation for the middle of next week, but with much uncertainty at this time.

AVIATION

Isolated thunderstorms have been occurring since 17Z this morning near Fresno and along the Sierra Foothills. With mountain obscurations and visibilities creeping into the 5-6SM range, MVFR conditions in place with showers and isolated thunderstorms through at least today. Winds mainly up to 10 kts at the TAF sites, mainly from the east. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Thursday evening for CAZ308-309-313-314- 316-332>339. Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ323- 326>328-330-331. Airport Weather Warning in effect until 2PM PDT for Fresno Yosemite International Airport.