textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Widespread precipitation ends today for most of San Joaquin Valley. Thunderstorm chances within the Sierra Nevada today.
2. Temperatures begin to rise this week as ridging takes hold.
3.Warming trend to end next week as another low makes its way into the area.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures begin to warm up this week as the low pressure system that brought widespread rain to the CWA begins to make the trek eastward. Today, there is a few lingering showers in the northern portion of the CWA, particularly in the Sierra Nevada mountains. The mountainous areas have a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms today too. If any storms go up, it won't be until the afternoon hours.
Besides that, the weather is going to be quieting down this week. There are a few short wave troughs expected to come in, keeping our temperatures from going too far above normal. By Thursday and into the weekend, a ridge will build and begin to warm up temperatures within the CWA. The valley has a 90 percent chance to see temperatures exceeding the mid 80s and a 10 percent chance of meeting or exceeding the mid 90s by Saturday.
Looking long term, another trough is looking to come through mid-next week. It looks to be another closed low, which are notoriously hard to forecast this far out. For now, it is in line with what the Climate Prediction Center has forecasted. Their 6-10 day outlook has the Valley with 40 to 60 percent chance of above normal for this time of year precipitation.
AVIATION
IFR to MVFR conditions over the Sierra Nevada from 18Z Monday through 00Z Tuesday in showers and possible thunderstorms this afternoon. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds of 15 to 25 mph in the Mojave Slopes and Desert through 12Z Monday with gusts up to 55 mph.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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