textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Thunderstorm risk today, with lightning, heavy rain, gusty winds, and small hail possible.
2. Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through 11 PM Sunday for the Sierra Nevada above 7,000 feet.
3. Wind Advisory for Mojave Slopes through 11 PM Sunday.
DISCUSSION
Current satellite imagery shows the low pressure system spinning just off the coast of Northern California, where it is expected to move ashore as the day progresses. As this happens, there will be a risk for thunderstorms, particularly in the northern half of the area. Modest CAPE, ample boundary-layer moisture, strong deep-layer shear, and 700-500 mb lapse rate nearing 7 C/km will mean any convection that develops could pose a small hail risk in addition to locally heavy rain, lightning, and gusty winds. There is a 40-50% probability of lightning in the northern half of the area, decreasing to 10-20% in the southern half. Locally heavy rain over burn scars will pose a low to moderate risk of flooding, particularly over the French Burn Scar. In the mountains above 7,000 ft, a Winter Storm Warning continues until 11 PM Sunday. There is a 50-60% chance of an additional six inches of accumulation in mountain areas north of Tulare County. Meanwhile, a Wind Advisory remains in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes until 11 PM Sunday. A lingering precipitation and lightning will persist Monday across the area, with lightning probabilities of 10-20%.
As the trough clears the area, models are in good agreement that another trough will approach the area Thursday. This will be a drier system, but a lightning risk on Thursday appears possible, with windy conditions possible Thursday through the weekend. The continuous troughing over the next week should keep temperatures near or just above average.
AVIATION
VFR conditions across the area today, with local MVFR and IFR in and near thunderstorms. Strong winds with gusts to 40 kts in the Mojave Desert.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338. Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ323- 326>328-330-331.
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