textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Extreme Heat Warning continues for the Mojave Desert and Indian Wells Valley through Monday evening. Major HeatRisk expected with afternoon highs 102 to 110 degrees through Monday.
2. High pressure over the region will maintain temperatures near season averages for the remainder of Central California Monday and Tuesday.
3. Warming trend begins Wednesday with Major Heat Risk by Friday for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and by the weekend in the San Joaquin Valley.
4. Dry conditions to prevail through the week.
DISCUSSION
The ridge of high pressure over much of the western U.S. continues to dominate with near average temperatures for most of the San Joaquin Valley and above average temperatures in the Mojave Desert. However, a trough currently is off the Pacific Northwest. This trough will slide over the ridge Monday and Tuesday but will help bring temperatures down a degree or two in the Valley and by a few degrees in the Mojave.
The big story for the week will be the warming trend as the ridge slides west beginning Wednesday and strengthening once that trough slides over it. Latest probabilities have a 25 to 50 percent chance of a high of at least 105 on Friday south of Merced before increasing to 40 to 70 percent south of Merced both Saturday and next Sunday. These above average temperatures brings a 30 to 50 percent chance of Major Heat Risk in the Valley south of Merced on Saturday and Sunday. However, the Mojave Slopes and Desert will see at least 60 percent chance of Major Heat Risk on Friday before being at 70 percent and higher on Saturday and next Sunday. The CPC picks this up with a 60 to 70 percent chance of above average temperatures for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337-339.
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