textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures below seasonal averages will continue into next week before a warming trend returns temepratures to averages midweek.

2. Precipitation chances increase into the weekend, with the best chances on Sunday. The greatest probabilities will also be in the desert and southern mountain areas.

DISCUSSION

A disturbance pushing into the Pacific Northwest continues its decent into Northern California this evening. For Central California, the disturbance will influence temperatures and winds over the next few days. While the chances of precipitation from this disturbance will be very limited, the area has seen and will continue to observe below normal temperatures and breezy conditions. The drop in temperatures have been about 10-15 degrees with wind gusts reaching 15-20 mph. While variations will occur in the coming days, these conditions will persist through the weekend while the disturbance resides over the West Coast.

Taking a closer look, the Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 90 degrees will not go above 50 percent until Thursday of next week with the PoE of 95 degrees just below 30 percent. Therefore, while 90s will return to the San Joaquin Valley, good well above seasonal normal value have very little chance of occurring during the next seven days.

Hurricane Marie, while expected to progress in a westward direction, will still influence Central Californias weather. Integrated Water Vapor Transport is still expected to surge toward Southern California and reach over portions of Central California. With the best chances over the Mojave Desert, some moisture will spread toward areas in Kern and Tulare Counties. The Probability of Measurable Precipitation (PoP) of receiving a tenth (0.10) of an inch rises to 20-30 percent Sunday Morning with a slight rise in PoP by Sunday Afternoon. In addition, the PoP for a quarter of an inch (0.25) is at 15 percent for the same time frame. Again, Southern California is more favored to receive measurable precipitation with the surge of moisture shifting away from Central California on Monday.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.