textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (with some sarcasm)! Get that popcorn ready. Behold, thereth existseth a system moving through the Pacific Northwest which continues to bring cooler conditions over our forecast area. Central California will be experiencing shivering below normal temperatures today, with max temps expected to be around 70-72 for the Valley, 70-75 for the desert and below 65 for elevated areas. Lingering moisture is possible across the entire forecast area ahead of the incoming spooky weekend storm system, possibly causing mist and haze in spotty portions across the San Joaquin Valley. Notice that water/dew on your car in da morning!? COndensation processes are craaaaazy. Fear not, though, fog remains unlikely, with the probabilities of visibility dropping below 3 miles sitting at less than 15 percent. It is worth mentioning that Thursday's outlook has these probabilities in the Southern Valley, whereas Friday morning is widespread across the entire Valley still at less than 15% chance for less than 3 mile visibility. This means Slenderman is currently NOT expected to make an appearance, but wouldn't that just be an outlandish coincidence approaching spooky day!?

Ensemble models continue to agree on a system forming off the Pacific Northwest coast on Saturday, potentially bringing another round of precipitation to Central California starting late spooky day into Sunday. The heaviest precipitation is expected later in the day on Sunday. While confidence in precipitation is increasing for our area, model variability remains regarding exact accumulation and how it may impact various areas in our responsibility. Current guidance indicates:

* 48-Hour Probability of Precipitation (Late Saturday Early Monday): 30-50% chance of receiving an inch across the Sierra Nevada. The Foothills have a 30-50% chance of 0.5 inches. Valley and deserts have a 35-45% chance for 0.25 inches.

* 48-Hour Snow Probabilities (Late Saturday Early Monday): 30-50% chance of receiving 4 inches across the Sierra Nevada above 7,000 feet, though highest probabilities are for Sunday morning.

* 50th Percentile: Precipitation is becoming more likely across the region this weekend, with higher chances and amounts in the Sierra and Foothills.

* 90th Percentile: (Worst-Cast Scenario): Up to 2.5 inches of liquid equivalent (rain/snow) across Central California.

We will continue to monitor and evaluate the potential for heavy (excessive rainfall) rainfall as new guidance become available. Did you finish your popcorn?

AVIATION

There is a potential for visibility to be slightly reduced over KBFL early tomorrow morning resulting in MVFR conditions. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.