textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Damaging winds and hazardous travel conditions continue in eastern Kern County through Friday morning.

2. The risk for fire starts increases Friday into the weekend due to lowering humidity and a warming trend.

3. Another chance for a wind and lightning event exists by the middle of next week as another low pressure system approaches the area.

DISCUSSION

Strong and gusty winds will continue tonight into Friday morning across the higher peaks of the southern Sierra Nevada and into the Kern County desert and adjacent slopes, including towards Mojave. Gusts to 60-70 mph have been reported this evening along the Mojave Desert slopes, although stronger gusts occurred early this morning. Elsewhere, winds will diminish during the overnight hours. Friday will be a bit warmer than today as the ridge of high pressure builds over the region. This feature will bring a continued warming trend for the weekend into Monday. The chance of highs in the 80's remains high across the valley and desert for this period, or at least 65-75 percent.

On Tuesday and Wednesday, temperatures lower, and the next chance of precipitation arrives. Amounts will once again be relatively light, but there is a slight chance for thunderstorms and another period of gusty winds. There is another good chance (60-70 percent) of gusts reaching or exceeding 55 mph across the Sierra Nevada crest, as well as the Kern County mountains and desert by Wednesday. Cool and unsettled conditions continue into next Thursday with another slight chance of precipitation in the Central Valley and a 30-40 percent chance of rain and high elevation snow in the Sierra above 7,000 feet.

Latest CPC outlooks suggest near average to a slight tilt in the odds towards above average precipitation for the 6-10 day period and 8-14 day periods. Above average temperatures continue with a 40-50 percent chance of occurrence.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across central California across the next 24 hours. Strong winds will continue over the Sierra Nevada Crest and across the Kern County Desert with surface winds with gusts of 70 mph and higher until this morning, or 19Z.

FIRE WEATHER

Strong northwest flow on the backside of the exiting low pressure system continues into Friday. Much lower humidity values will occur, especially in the Kern County desert and southern Sierra Nevada, where minimum humidity has potential to fall as low as 5-15 percent over the weekend into early next week. Another low pressure system brings a chance for showers, thunderstorms, and gusty winds by the middle of next week.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until noon PDT today for CAZ338.