textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Below Seasonal Average Temperatures will exist across the region through the weekend. A slow rise in temperatures begins near the middle of next week.
2. Precipitation chances increase by this weekend with the best chances of precipitation early next week.
DISCUSSION
Strong troughing has set up over the west coast of the CONUS, leading to a significant decrease in temperatures for the region, with highs 10 degrees below normal and lows in the mid to upper 50's in much of the lower elevations of our CWA. This pattern it expected to continue through Friday and into the weekend. Along with the stronger wave moving through the region, minRHs are expected to increase compared to yesterday.
Looking to this Labor Day weekend, a storm system moving down from the northwest is expected to cross Central and Southern California and cause some light precipitation, with around a 33% chance for a half an inch or more this Sunday around the Southern Sierra Nevada, Tehachapi Mountains and into each of their respective foothills. There is also a 10% chance for an inch of rainfall on that day at the higher elevations in those areas. As of current model runs, the tropical system that formed this morning is not likely to have a direct impact on Central and Southern California, though it may contribute a small amount of moisture to the upcoming storm system coming out of the North this weekend.
The long term forecast is still holding a trough over much of the west coast, which would keep temperatures below normal. The Climate Prediction Center currently has our CWA in near normal temperatures for the 6 to 10 day outlook and leaning above normal for the 8 to 14 day outlook, suggesting the trough may weaken or pull northwards by that time, as below normal temps are sustained in the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation continues to lean above normal due to the increased trough activity expected during that time.
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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