DISCUSSION

Cooler temperatures have made their appearance for the day, however, don't expect them to stay around too long. There is 80 to 90 percent probability for the San Joaquin Valley to reach temperatures above 85 degrees on Sunday. With these rise in temperatures, the NBM is also expressing a 50 percent confidence of gusts above 30 MPH in South Eastern Tulare county, specifically the higher elevations east of Lake Isabella.

The best case scenario, the 10th percentile, which is the least likely to occur, is showing to have no rain in the Southern San Joaquin Valley during this period.

Confidence continues to grow regarding the pattern change into next week, caused by a longwave trough pushing into the western US late Monday into early Tuesday morning. The highlight from this pattern change is the return of precipitation to portions of the valley areas and snowfall to the Sierra Nevada. Despite the best case scenario's lack of rain, the forecast is leaning more towards rain within the San Joaquin valley over a 24 hour period ending next Wednesday at 5 AM, there is a 20 to 30 percent probability for the northern San Joaquin Valley to receive 0.1" of rainfall, with a 10 to 30 percent probability for the southern San Joaquin Valley. Over the same time frame, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for at least 2 inches of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada with snow levels projected between 7500-8000 feet. The expected amount of snow fall is around 2".

The 90th percentile (worst case scenario with only a 10 percent chance of happening) of the NBM for the precipitation next week could have San Joaquin Valley residents seeing up to 0.75" of rain within the 24 hour period that ends on Wednesday at 5 AM. For the Sierra Nevada's, the 90th percentile could see over 6" of snow during that 24 hour period.

Confidence is higher than normal regarding wind gusts of 64 MPH or greater at the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada's as the system begins to leave the area.

Confidence is higher than normal regarding strong wind gusts in the windiest parts of Eastern Kern County as the system begins to leave the area.

DISCUSSION

PREV DISCUSSION

/issued 1113 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026/

KEY MESSAGES... 1. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend.

2. Gusty winds this afternoon along the Mojave Desert slopes, Tehachapi Pass and Tejon Pass with gusts up to 40 mph.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

4. Confidence is increasing regarding Sierra Nevada precipitation by Monday.

DISCUSSION... A slight cooldown is in store for Thursday as the upper level synoptic pattern shifts towards zonal flow, however prevailing flow will quickly shift to the southwest, creating another warmup into the weekend. Ensemble guidance from the NBM expresses an 80 to 90 percent probability for temperatures to rise above 85 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley on Sunday. Beforehand, this evening into Thursday morning, a small localized area of low pressure is expected to push through southern California and into portions of the southern San Joaquin Valley, resulting in stronger wind gusts particularly along the Mojave Desert Slopes as southerly winds move cyclonically around the system.

Confidence is growing in a pattern change for next week, caused by a longwave trough pushing into the western US late Monday into early Tuesday morning. THe highlight from this pattern change is the return of precipitation to portions of the valley areas and snowfall to the Sierra Nevada. Over a 24 hour period ending next Wednesday at 5 AM, there is a 40 to 50 percent probability for the northern San Joaquin Valley to receive 0.1" of rainfall, with a 30 to 40 percent probability for the southern San Joaquin Valley. Over the same time frame, there is a 50 to 60 percent probability for at least 2 inches of snowfall in the Sierra Nevada with snow levels projected between 7500-8000 feet.

AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for central California over the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER... A drop in temperatures is expected for Thursday before temps rise with a warming trend into the weekend. RH values will rise, then fall again as a result, curing fine fuels across the region. 100- and 1000- hour fuels will continue to trend drier but remaining below critical thresholds for this time of year. No precipitation is expected through the weekend.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES... None.

CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

HNX AFD authors - edit this section manually UFN consult: HNX Site Page --> Bulletin listed there and http://ww2.valleyair.org/aqinfo/action_day_hnx.txt

PREV DISCUSSION

/issued 1223 PM PDT Thu Mar 26 2026/

AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail for central California over the next 24 hours.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 1113 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026/