textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Above average temperatures continue across the region. Low minimum relative humidities, especially in the Sierra Nevada.

2. Precipitation chances will return next weekend.

3. Up to 60% chance for dense morning fog in the northern San Joaquin Valley Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Yesterday's weather was so nice, why not have another repeat of it? The ridge parked over California and much of the Southwest continues to stay in place, leading to a very similar weather story as yesterday: temperatures continue to be above normal, minimum relative humidity values are lower in the Sierra Nevada, light winds remain in place. However, one thing that is new and exciting is a shortwave going through NorCal. While this feature is moving north due to the ridge being so stubborn, it will introduce juuust enough moisture to bring the probability of visibilities less then a quarter mile (as of the 4 AM model run) 30-60% in Madera and Merced counties, following the 99. While we will wait for what the 10 AM model runs have to say, we will be keeping a close eye on this and the potential for another Dense Fog Advisory. The surge of moisture up north is also noticable down in the San Joaquin Valley, as minimum relative humidities are expected to increase by a few percent tomorrow. However, due to temperature inversions, that increase of moisture will not be reflected in the Sierra Nevada, where minimum relative humidities are expected to stay between 13-25% until the next system begins to make its way into the area.

This shortwave will also cool temperatures down a few degrees so we are closer to a more seasonal temperature. While we are going to be above 70 degrees until the end of the week, the chance of exceeding 75 degrees is only 2% along the 99 corridor. Along the I-5 corridor, that goes up to a 50% chance, but the chance of exceeding 76 degrees is 20-30%. This is rather short lived, as Thursday is expected to be our warmest day this week, with a 40% chance of exceeding 80 degrees for much of the Valley. Notably, Delano and Bakersfield have a 60% and a 90% chance of exceeding that 80 degrees on Thursday.

Those temperatures too, will be short lived, as we will have a one-two punch of low pressure systems coming in. The first will be a cutoff low skirting through SoCal and Baja, quickly followed by a stronger trough on Saturday. Friday chances for measurable rainfall (0.01") is around 5%. When that second trough comes through on Saturday, measurable rainfall chances go up to 25-50%. Yippee!! For elevations above 7,500 feet, there is a chance of snowfall between 5 to 10 inches. As we get closer to the event, we will have a more concrete forecast for snowfall.

AVIATION

MVFR to VFR conditions will return starting around 18Z. For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours. The potential for dense fog and MVFR through LIFR conditions redevelop at 08Z Tuesday with up to 60% chance of Dense Fog at KMCE.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 11/08/2026 14:49 EXPIRES: 11/09/2026 23:59

On Monday November 9 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.