textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Red Flag Warning in Effect through Saturday 11 PM for the following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, and Lake Isabella.

2. Dry and windy conditions create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in Eastern Kern and Southeastern Tulare Counties.

3. Cool down through the weekend will bring below normal temperatures.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Strong winds are expected to continue through Sunday morning as a low pressure trough moves through California. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Desert through Sunday morning due to these continued strong winds over the Tehachapi range, and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the San Luis Reservoir through 2am tonight also due to strong winds. Along with these winds are continuing low RH's in the desert and southernmost Sierra Nevada, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued due to the elevated fire risk through tonight at 11pm. After this weekend, winds are expected to calm down somewhat as the most energetic part of the trough has moved to the east, but winds are expected to pulse up in the afternoon before coming back down again during the overnight hours.

Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the next 7 days as the trough remains aloft, though with weaker winds due to a less intense pressure gradient in said trough. RH's will also remain in the teens to single digits in the desert and dry out in the Valley into the 15-25% range. By next Saturday, it is expected to move east and ridging will begin building in its place. This will lead to a warm-up in temperatures throughout the region, and will approach the seasonal normals for this time of year. Long term models have this ridge gaining strength and above normal temperatures gaining a foothold once again by the week after next, which is also seen by the Climate Prediction Center as they have our CWA in the leaning above normal temperatures category for the 8 to 14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. 80-90% probability or surface wind gusts to reach 45kts for the Mojave Desert through 12Z Sun.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ298-299- 595. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339. Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ300-301.