textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will gradually warm this week and rise back to around 5 degrees above average by Thursday. The temperatures will back down Friday into the weekend.

2. Breezy conditions take place over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through this week.

DISCUSSION

Southwesterly flow continues as a trough lingers off the California coast and a ridge persists over the Southwest. However, the ridge will strengthen through Thursday and retrograde west bringing temperatures back up. Triple digit probabilities in the Valley increase from 35 to 50 percent today to 60 to 90 percent on Thursday. However, the heat risk will be moderate in most of the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert during this warmup. The flow aloft continues to favor breezy conditions in the normal wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes.

Temperatures back down into the weekend as the trough slides over and flattens the ridge. This change also brings another push of monsoon moisture albeit thunderstorm chances being at 5 to 15 percent over the Sierra Nevada and foothills through the weekend. The CPC continues to highlight a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.