textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and breezy conditions create elevated fire risk this week, especially in the Mojave Desert.

2. Below normal temperatures continue across the area.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

As the strong shortwave moves out of our area, a weaker trough will be left aloft, continuing to cause below normal temperatures throughout the region for the reminder of the workweek. This trough will also cause increased winds at the San Luis Reservoir through Thursday evening, though mainly in the late morning into the early evening and calmer winds overnight. A Lake Wind Advisory has been issued for that area during that time period.

The trough will begin to weaken by Saturday, leading to a slight warm-up that will bring temperatures back to around normal for this time of year, which will remain steady into early next week. This will mainly be due to increased 500mb heights over Central California, as the ridge that may develop is currently modeled to set up over the Four Corners region. Looking into the long term, the Climate Prediction Center has our CWA in the leaning above normal category for temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks, so even warmer temperatures may be in store for the Valley during those time periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300.