textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a high probability of gusts above 45 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 am Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday for this area.

2. Another warming trend is expected by later this week with well above average temperatures by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Today was another warm day, as the highest temperatures reached into the lower 80's in southern portions of the San Joaquin Valley, including Bakersfield and Porterville. Many locations reached well into the 70's. Temperatures moderate for Tuesday as an upper-level low pressure system passes over the Pacific Northwest. Flow aloft becomes west-northwesterly and will produce a sufficient gradient for gusty winds along the Mojave Desert slopes for Tuesday afternoon and overnight into early Wednesday morning. The probabilities for gusts above 45 mph in this area is 70-80 percent; thus a Wind Advisory was issued.

Weather will generally remain pleasant on Wednesday in terms of temperatures, or near seasonal averages. However, a warming trend begins on Thursday, and well above average temperatures arrive Friday into the weekend. Above average temperatures will last into next week. Highs in the 90s have a moderate to high probability of occurrence on Sunday (50-60 percent) and next Monday (70-80 percent) in the Kern County desert. There is even a moderate chance that highs will reach 90 degrees in the Central Valley by next Monday (50-60 percent). Otherwise, it is more likely that widespread highs in the 80's will take place throughout the San Joaquin Valley. Highs near 90 degrees this time of year will challenge or tie record maxima. Ensemble guidance remains consistent in building a strong upper-level ridge that will persist beyond the current seven day period with very warm daytime highs continuing. Confidence is growing that summer-like temperatures will arrive early next week, although minimum temperatures lower to the 50's each night.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338.