textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1 Temperatures continue to be lower Friday into next week.
2. Moisture tracking over the region brings a 10 to 4 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada on Friday. 10 to 25 percent chance of precipitation Friday in the Valley.
3. Precipitation chances return middle of next week.
DISCUSSION
High clouds moved in quicker on Thursday leading to high temperatures to be significantly cooler than average. However, the southern portion of the Valley remains at a 40 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees on Friday and Saturday. Rain chances on Friday across the Valley are 10 to 25 percent north of Kern County. The Sierra Nevada has a 10 to 30 percent chance of thunderstorms on Friday.
Drier conditions return Saturday with a slight rise in temperatures as the first trough slides out. However, a second trough slides in Monday through midweek bringing temperatures back down and a second chance of precipitation which models are detecting as being picked up from now Tropical Storm Karina as it strengthens into a hurricane. The CPC outlooks changed to now having a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. The outlooks also now show a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average in the 8-14 day outlook. However, a reminder to all of us is that the seasonal precipitation for this time of year is practically 0 so any signal could mean even a hundredth.
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. However, 10 to 40 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada between 18Z Friday and 6Z Saturday.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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