textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Below normal temperatures today before temperatures warm up by this weekend.

2. Temperatures are expected to cooldown by mid to late week next week with our next chance for precipitation (low confidence).

DISCUSSION

Visibilities were reduced to as low as 1/2 SM in localized areas early this morning, but conditions have improved significantly. Current satellite imagery indicates some low level clouds trapped over the valley for now, with cloud cover from just north of Bakersfield all the way up to Merced and points north. Skies are expected to clear early this afternoon with sunshine later today. The shortwave trough that has been influencing our weather with some very localized light precipitation has begun to move out of our area. A weak ridge will begin to move over our region as we progress through the day today. Temperatures are expected to be below average today however with the influence of the trough lingering over our region. The probability of exceeding (POE) 68 degrees is only 30 to 45% for much of the San Joaquin Valley, excluding the far northern valley where probabilities are actually higher. Temperatures are expected to warm however as we progress towards the weekend, with a much stronger ridge of high pressure influencing our weather. By Friday, the POE 70 degrees is 70 to 85% across the valley. The warmest weather will be in place over our area this coming weekend with at least a 60% chance of high temperatures exceeding 75 degrees on both Saturday and Sunday in the valley. Temperatures are expected to then begin to cooldown, at least slightly, as we progress towards next week.

There is the potential for an atmospheric river to affect our region as we progress towards the end of next week. Confidence is increasing with regards to an atmospheric river influencing the West Coast sometime late week next week or over that coming weekend (so around 9-12 days from now). However, confidence remains low with regards to the exact track and timing of this disturbance, so as of now we can't say with confidence whether this disturbance will influence our region or remain north of here. The POE .1 inches of precipitation within the timeframe of late next week or over that next weekend is over 60% through much of the area. There is still at 20 to 30% chance for no rainfall at all and for the disturbance to miss our area entirely. We will likely have better determination and more confidence with regards to whether or not this system will influence our weather as we move closer to the event. With this potential disturbance influencing our area next week, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has us in a 50 to 60% chance for above average precipitation in the 8-14 Day Outlook. In addition to potentially above average precipitation, the CPC has us with a 40 to 50% chance for above average temperatures in the 8-14 Day Outlook.

AVIATION

MVFR conditions are currently in place at KMCE, KFAT, and KBFL, while IFR conditions are in place at KVIS due to low cloud cover. Expect conditions to clear as we progress towards this afternoon. VFR conditions are expected to prevail region wide after 21Z.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 11/03/2026 14:35 EXPIRES: 11/04/2026 23:59

On Wednesday November 4 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-315-317-319.