textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. The Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and the Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella continue through Saturday morning.

2. Much cooler temperatures continue this weekend into next week.

3. Winter Storm Warning in effect through Tuesday morning with up to 20 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet in total.

4. A storm system is in store from Sunday night through Monday, with another one on Wednesday through Thursday; these will bring additional rain and mountain snow along with increased winds.

DISCUSSION

Light to moderate showers continue mainly over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains at this time. Observed precipitation has been mainly up to a half inch in the San Joaquin Valley and around 0.50 inch to 1.50 inches in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills. Winds gusted around 50 mph at the strongest locations in the mountains and desert. Shower coverage has been gradually decreasing during this evening and has largely ended in the San Joaquin Valley. Expect some lingering cloud cover to continue overnight into Saturday morning, while winds decrease over most areas outside of the Kern County mountains (i.e., Tehachapi Mountains and southern Sierra Nevada) and desert. The Mojave Desert and the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada will continue to observed gusty winds through Saturday morning.

An upper-level shortwave ridge passes over the area on Saturday into Sunday ahead of the next low pressure system that arrives Sunday night. Fog development in the San Joaquin Valley is more likely to occur Sunday morning, based on latest probabilistic short-term guidance, although we can't rule out some fog in the valley late tonight into Satruday morning.

The next system will provide another round of rain and mountain snow, mainly at elevations above 6,000 feet. Forecast amounts remain similar or a little lower than with the current storm. There is about a 30-40 percent chance of at least 0.50 inch in the San Joaquin Valley and 40-50 percent chance for at least one inch across the Sierra (except 70-80 percent towards Madera and Mariposa Counties). Additional snow amounts will be several inches to a foot, with lesser amounts south of Sequoia NP. The best probabilities (70-80 percent chance) for over six inches are mainly Fresno County northward. Precipitation ends by Tuesday morning across the region. Winds will also increase with this system as well as the next one, at least over the Sierra Nevada crest and the Kern County desert where the best probabilities for 45 mph gusts are shown.

The Wednesday and Thursday system has been trending a bit colder, and snow levels lower to around 5,000 feet by Thursday morning. We will continue to monitor for potential impacts at the pass levels, such as the Grapevine and Tehachapi, especially if this system trends colder. Currently the 25th percentile for snow levels are around 4,500 feet, so it may get close to the pass level if it doesn't reach it. For the Wednesday through Thursday period, precipitation amounts are also at 30-40 percent chance of at least 0.50 inch in the San Joaquin Valley and 60-70 percent chance of at least 1.00 inch in the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills. Snow amounts in the Sierra are at 60-70 percent for at least six inches during Wednesday afternoon until Thursday afternoon. There is a 55-65 percent for 12 inches in a 48-hour period ending on Friday afternoon of next week. Chances for precipitation will continue into next Friday, at least over the Sierra Nevada.

Latest CPC outlooks continue to show a 40-50 percent chance for above average precipitation for the 6-10 day period with slightly lower probabilities for the 8-14 day period. As for temperatures, the 6-10 period favors continued below average temperatures, while the 8-14 day period shows a slight tilt towards above average temperatures.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and San Joaquin Valley, MVFR to IFR conditions will continue until 18Z Saturday. Lingering showers are possible over the mountains through early Saturday morning. Locally stronger gusts (35-45 kts) in the Mojave Desert and along the Sierra Nevada crest continue through 15Z Saturday. VFR conditions will otherwise prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Saturday, November 14, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno County. Burning Discouraged in Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced Counties, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Saturday for CAZ337>339. Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ300-304-308- 313-336. Winter Storm Warning until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-325>330. Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ332.