textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Stratus will continue to hang around through the early part of this week.
2. A dry disturbance will introduce increasing winds over Kern County and maintain the dry conditions today.
3. A second disturbance will move through the area from Tuesday through Thursday. Only very slight chances of precipitation are possible.
DISCUSSION
Stratus has continued to hang around which kept temperatures cold again yesterday. However, ensembles show the ridge crumbling and breaking as two troughs are in play. One of them becomes a cutoff low later today but will spin offshore and move away towards Hawaii. However, the other trough we have been keeping an eye on will also begin sliding in later today through the weekend. This trough will help increase wind gusts by a few miles per hour but not to Advisory level or cause Mono winds for our area. This trough moves east quickly and will not bring any rain or snow to our area.
The next chance of rain and snow is another trough which slides down late Tuesday through Thursday. However, models diverge around Thursday as to whether this trough will become a cutoff low or move east. Latest probabilities have a 5 percent chance or less of an inch of snow in the Sierra Nevada with this storm and a 20 to 25 percent chance of any rain accumulating in the Valley Thursday into Friday.
AVIATION
MVFR ceilings and visibilities with areas of IFR conditions will persist across the Valley through 20Z Monday. After 20Z, conditions are expected to improve with a 30 percent chance of having ceilings rise to near the 2,500 foot level.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Monday December 1 2025, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups in Fresno and Kern Counties. Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning For All in Fresno and Kern Counties. No Burning Unless Registered in Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings County, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Freeze Watch from this evening through Tuesday morning for CAZ337>339.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PST today for CAZ335.
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