textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures.

2. Another low system brings strong winds and a risk for thunderstorms Thursday within the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

DISCUSSION

Calm conditions prevail within the San Joaquin Valley today and tomorrow as the low pressure system exits out towards the east. With this exit, drier and warmer conditions will prevail until Thursday. By then, another trough skirts through Northern California and into Nevada. This will bring windy conditions to the Mojave Desert Slopes and the Sierra Nevada Mountain crest. There is high confidence (65-90 percent probability) along the Mojave Desert Slopes and a medium confidence (40-50 percent probability) for these areas to reach gusts 55 mph or higher.

Friday into the weekend will have temperatures begin to climb back up again. Friday, expect temperatures to range from the low 70's (90 percent chance and best case scenario) to the high 70's (10 percent chance and worst case scenario) within the valley. The foothills will be much more mild as it ranges from the low to mid 60s through the low 70's. As we go into Saturday, the valley will be above normal temperatures once again. Expect the range of temperatures to be the high 70's (90 percent chance) through the mid 80's (10 percent chance).

There is another trough that is coming through on Monday, which will help drop those temperatures down once again. However, there is low confidence regarding where the trough will hit. For now, the current runs are hinting at more precipitation and thunderstorm chances within the foothills and the Sierra Nevada. The confidence regarding the next system will increase over the next few days.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Calm conditions Tuesday and Wednesday. By Thursday, windy conditions through Eastern Kern County. Expect gusts upwards of 40 mph with sustained winds around 20 mph coming from the north west. Minimal RH values throughout Eastern Kern County over the weekend and continued gusty conditions have triggered an elevated risk for fire starts.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

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