textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind Advisories and a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through Monday for the Kern River Valley, Indian Wells Valley, and Mojave Desert. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Desert Slopes in effect through Tuesday morning.

2. 15 to 35 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday, decreasing to 10 to 15 percent on Tuesday. 5 to 20% chance across the Valley and into the foothills during this period.

3. Cooler, unsettled weather Sunday until Tuesday with snow above 7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada.

4. Gusty winds along the Sierra Crest and eastern Tulare and Kern Counties.

5. Warming trend on Wednesday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

A cutoff low is currently moving down the Pacific Coast before moving onshore early this coming week. This system will bring near-normal temperatures today (mid 70s to low 80s in the Valley) and below-normal temperatures Monday and Tuesday (high 60s to low 70s across the Valley) before a major warmup beginning Wednesday. In the meantime, there is a 15 to 35 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Sunday and Monday, decreasing to 10 to 15 percent on Tuesday and 5 to 20% across the Valley and into the foothills during this period. In the Sierra Nevada, there is a 20 to 60 percent chance of 4 inches of snow above 8,000 feet. There is a 5 to 15 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain in the Valley through Tuesday, with the best chances in the eastern half. Winds will be a concern along the Sierra Crest and in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. There is a 60 to 100 percent chance of gusts of at least 40 mph in these areas today. There is also a 50-100% chance of gusts of at least 40 mph along the crests of the Coast Range today. Monday, the risk shifts to eastern Tulare and Kern Counties, with a 50 to 100 percent chance of gusts exceeding 40 mph. Tuesday, this risk will expand to include the Sierra Crests. There are multiple Wind and Lake Wind Advisories in effect through Tuesday morning.

As the low pressure system clear the area on Wednesday, a ridge will quickly build over the area, bringing warm and dry conditions. This will be bring steadily increasing temperatures, with a greater than 40 percent chance of highs of 95 or higher across most of the Valley by next Sunday. Current CPC guidance indicates a 90-100 percent of above-average temperatures in the 6-to-10-day period, and our first triple-digit temperatures may be on the horizon.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California, except in and near thunderstorms, where MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

Minor air quality issues may affect vulnerable populations Sunday afternoon.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ332. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337-339.