textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler temperatures this weekend before a warmup to begin next week.

2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire risk across the region.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

As the trough continues to move east over California, temperatures will remain a few degrees below normal through Saturday. RH's will also be slightly higher as a result. However, this trough will soon give way to zonal flow, followed by a high pressure ridge building in from the southeast. This will cause a steady rise in temperatures and a return to triple digits for much of the Valley below 2000 feet as well as the Mojave Desert. This will also lead to a drying trend for the entire region, causing an increased fire risk for the area for much of next week.

Looking to the long trend forecast, another trough may move down from the northwest, weakening the ridge that will set up over the southwest of the CONUS, and leading to temperatures dipping below 100 degrees in the Valley, though current models have the Valley remain in the mid to upper 90's, which is around normal for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center also has Central California in the leaning above normal category (33-50% chance) for temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.