textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A low pressure system brings chances of precipitation over the Sierra Nevada through Monday afternoon with snow levels at 7,000 feet.

2. A Wind Advisory has been issued through Monday evening due to expected gusty winds along the Mojave Slopes and into the Desert.

3. Another system will bring increased winds to the region Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures have begun to lower today, although well above average highs, or into the lower 80s, persisted in Kern County. A few light showers passed over the Sierra Nevada this afternoon, while latest radar data show some light echoes over the Sierra Nevada crest in Fresno County at this time. Probabilities of 0.10 inch or higher precipitation are currently at 50-60 percent for the Sierra and foothills from Yosemite to Fresno County. The chances for additional showers continue later tonight into Monday morning over the Sierra and adjacent foothills as the upper-level low pressure system moves inland over Northern California into the Great Basin. Otherwise, the cooling trend with increased winds over the Kern County mountains and desert will continue into Monday.

Afterward, temperatures will be steady and closer to seasonal averages Tuesday through the rest of the week. Chances for increased winds will return Wednesday through Friday as another low pressure system passes into the Great Basin with an inside- slider trough. The greatest chances for 40 mph or stronger gusts will be on Wednesday night into Thursday, with about 50-60 percent chance over the coastal ranges and Sierra Nevada crest with a 70-80 percent for the Mojave Desert slopes. Moderate probabilities over the Mojave Desert slopes persist until Saturday. There remains a slight chance for snow showers over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada from Yosemite to Fresno County Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning, although amounts will also be light. Otherwise, dry conditions persist for the next several days.

Latest CPC outlooks continue to show odds tilted towards below average precipitation and above average temperatures for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across the Central California interior for the next 24 hours. However, IFR conditions are possible for the Sierra Nevada through 12Z Monday but persist near Yosemite through 20Z Monday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for CAZ337>339.