textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Temperatures will gradually warm to around 5 degrees above average by Thursday. The temperatures will back down slightly Friday before decreasing more on Saturday.
2. Breezy conditions take place over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through this week.
3. Monsoonal moisture brings 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning this weekend.
DISCUSSION
Above average temperatures continue through Friday as the ridge of high pressure continues to remain in place over the Southwest. There is a 40 to 70 percent chance of triple digits for most of the Valley today and Friday and a 75 to 85 percent chance on Thursday. Thursday also brings a 10 to 35 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees in the southern portion of the Valley. However, the heat risk continues to remain at moderate for Thursday for most of the Valley so no heat products are expected. In the Desert, there is a 75 to 85 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees. Breezy conditions will continue every afternoon in the wind prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes. Lake Isabella has a Lake Wind Advisory in effect from 2 PM to 8 PM today due to gusts up to 30 mph being expected.
Temperatures return to near normal over the weekend as the trough off the coast moves onshore and tries to slide over the ridge. However, triple digit probabilities remain at 25 to 40 percent for most of the Valley through the middle of next week. The shift of the trough as it slides over the Northwest brings a return of monsoonal moisture over the weekend to the Sierra Nevada with a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms every afternoon beginning on Saturday. CPC continues to have a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
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