textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Above normal temperatures are expected in our area today, and temperatures will continue to warm into the weekend.
2. A Moderate Heat Risk through the Central Valley is very likely (60-80% chance) today with the chances increasing even further this weekend. Major Heat Risk is possible this weekend in portions of the Valley with a 50-60% chance.
3. A Heat Advisory for the weekend has been issued for the Valley and Foothills.
DISCUSSION
A ridge parked over the southwest will continue to raise temperatures gradually through the rest of this week and into the weekend. The warmest day will be Sunday, where triple digits have a 70-90% chance of occurring in the south Valley and a 50-70% chance in the northern Valley. This has resulted in the issuance of a Heat Advisory for Saturday and Sunday. And while the temps top out on Sunday, the rest of the week and into next week are likely to remain in the upper 90's as the ridge continues to stay in place. A potential weak trough may make it way over northern California by next Friday, bringing temperatures down a few degrees, but remaining in the mid to upper 90's.
This heat being 10 to 15 degrees above normal for the rest of the 7 day period will mean Moderate Heat Risk will be widespread through that time with a 50-60% chance for Major Heat Risk along the western side of the Valley and around the Bakersfield area over the weekend. Major Heat Risk is a risk to much of the population, especially those without proper cooling overnight. Looking to the long term forecast, the chances for any relief to this heat are small, with the Climate Prediction Center putting the region under the 70-90% chance for above normal temperatures through day 14.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.
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