textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dense fog redevelops tonight into Saturday morning. Dense Fog Advisory in effect through 10 AM Saturday.

2. There is medium confidence for another system to approach central California Sunday through Wednesday next week bringing additional rain and snow to the region.

3. Winter Storm Watch in effect from 10 pm Sunday through 10 PM Wednesday. 40 to 50 percent chance of an inch of snow in 24 hours ending 4 pm Wednesday along Tejon Pass.

4. Medium confidence exists for the active storm pattern to continue into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Weak high pressure slid in today and will persist through tomorrow. The stability with this ridge brings a 20 to 40 percent chance of fog. However, the big story is the trough that moves in Sunday into much of the week. The latest timing of the trough has a 5 to 15 percent chance of rain between 10 am and 4 pm Sunday in Merced and the northern portion of the Valley and by 10 am Monday, the entire Valley has a 70 to 90 percent chance of rain.

This trough is a very cold trough. Latest models show a 75 to 100 percent chance of two feet or more of snow in 48 hours ending 4 am Wednesday. There even is a 35 percent chance of 3 inches or more in 24 hours ending 4 pm Wednesday for Tehachapi and a 40 to 50 percent chance of an inch of snow in 24 hours ending 4 pm Wednesday along Tejon Pass. In the Valley, there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of an inch of rain in 24 hours ending 4 pm Monday, a 10 to 30 percent chance of an inch ending 4 pm Tuesday, and a 5 to 25 percent chance of an inch ending 4 pm Wednesday. The foothills will see a shift from rain to snow with this system including a 25 percent chance of an inch of snow ending 4 pm Wednesday for Oakhurst.

As the big trough slides away Wednesday and Thursday, the troughing continues as a few more shortwaves move through Thursday and Friday keeping precipitation chances around. The CPC has a 50 to 60 percent chance of below average temperatures and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook. However, the 8-14 day outlook hints at a change with a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average temperatures for the entire forecast area and a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average precipitation from Fresno County northward.

AVIATION

A 20-40 percent chance for IFR to LIFR conditions due to fog from 10Z to 17Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 02/13/2026 14:44 EXPIRES: 02/14/2026 23:59

On Saturday February 14 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ301>303- 305>307-309>312-314-315. Winter Storm Watch from Sunday evening through Wednesday evening for CAZ318-320-322>331-333.