textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Strong wind gusts are expected tomorrow through Thursday in the Tehachapi Mountains and Mojave Slopes as a low pressure system moves through the region.

2. An elevated fire risk exists over the mountains in Kern and southeastern Tulare Counties Friday and Saturday.

3. Temperatures are expected to warm through the weekend and into early next week.

DISCUSSION

A low pressure system is expected to come ashore in Oregon and Northern California and make its way southeast. As it moves through our CWA Wednesday, strong winds are expected for a majority of our region, especially along the Sierra Nevada crest and into the Tehachapi range and down the Mojave Slopes. Gusts of 50 mph or higher are likely in those regions from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning before calming into that evening. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Slopes and Tehachapi Mountains due to these winds. Temperatures are expected to cool as this system moves through.

Later this week, by Friday, the trough mentioned above is expected to have a dry shortwave drag it to the southwest, creating an inside slider for Central and Southern California. This pattern would lead to another bout of strong winds for the Mojave Desert and the surrounding mountains as it passes through. But unlike the system moving through this Wednesday, this inside slider will cause winds to flow over the Sierra Nevada from the northeast, likely leading to the air becoming drier and warmer as it moves downslope into the Valley. This would also be the case for the Mojave Desert as the winds move in from the east, leading to an elevated fire risk for that region. Do also keep in mind that current fuels are still moist from recent rains, keeping the fire risk down. Along with those winds, a warming trend is expected to begin after the first system moves out and the warm, downsloping winds take over from the inside slider. The CPC also maintains above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation for our area through Day 14.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected throughout the Valley for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 4 PM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ333-334-338.