textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warming trend begins Tuesday through the weekend.
2. Winds become gusty and from the east over the Sierra Crest and eastern Kern County Thursday into the weekend. Minimum RHs drop for both locations over the same timeframe.
DISCUSSION
Latest satellite imagery shows some clouds still lingering over the Sierra Nevada as the trough moves inland along with whatever is left of Rachel. Luckily for us tonight, the clearing skies allows for temperatures to drop with the Valley to have a 70 to 100 percent chance of lows of 50 degrees and below. The cooler overnight temperatures continue as the Valley has a greater than 50 percent chance of lows at or below 60 degrees.
Despite the fall-like night temperatures, we will warm up again thanks to a ridge of high pressure which slides in tomorrow and will strengthen through the week that it covers most of the U.S. by this weekend. Latest probabilities shows a 30 to 55 percent chance of highs getting up to 90 Friday through Sunday. However, the big story with this also is the possibility of the development of Mono winds. This is largely due to part of the trough getting cutoff and retrograding west that the ridge of high pressure becomes a rex block by Thursday. Latest models show minimum RH values over the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert in the teens with stronger easterly flows. As a result, no precipitation is expected through Sunday. However, the CPC shows equal chances to a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks as ensembles are picking up on a trough sliding in next Monday into the week.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.
textproduct.us is built and maintained by Joshua Thayer.