textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. There is high confidence of more widespread rain and snow until Wednesday. A Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the Sierra Nevada above 6000 feet for Fresno County northward from until Wednesday afternoon. The Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the rest of the Sierra Nevada.

2. Stronger winds also anticipated with the midweek system along the Sierra crest and in the lee side of the Coastal Range and Tehachapi Mountains.

3. There is medium confidence of a second system moving through late next weekend bringing additional rain and snow to the region.

DISCUSSION

Light to moderate precipitation is expected to continue for Central California through tonight and Wednesday. Strong winds were recorded around the Grapevine this evening, so the Wind Advisory for the area was upgraded to a High Wind Warning through 1 PM tomorrow as winds continue to gust above 50kts (58mph). Wind gusts in the southern Valley will also continue to be elevated as the system passes through. Precipitation is likely to taper off by Wednesday evening and the system is expected to exit the region by Thursday morning. After this exit, a shortwave ridge is likely to build in its place, increasing the probability for fog development once again for the San Joaquin Valley from Thursday into Saturday.

There is increasing confidence for a series of storm systems to move through the region from Sunday into the middle of next week, with the forecast consistently trending upwards in terms of precipitation, indicating a much wetter period for Central California. This forecast is continuously monitored. The CPC also continues to indicate likely cooler temperatures and above normal precipitation for the west for both 6 to 10 days out and 8 to 14 days out.

AVIATION

MVFR to VFR conditions are expected to prevail for the San Joaquin Valley through the next 24 hours. Winds will increase from the southeast (10-15 kts with gusts to 20-25 kts) at the TAF sites after 21Z Tuesday. Precipitation in the mountains is expected to continue for the next 24 hours, and rainfall in the Valley is likely to begin at 00Z Wednesday. Mountain obscuring clouds are expected for the next 24 hours. VFR conditions will prevail over the Mojave Desert.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Wednesday February 11 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 1 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ300-308-313-334- 336-338. Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ323-326- 327. Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ328>331. High Wind Warning until 1 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ335.