textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A storm will pass through central California late tonight through Wednesday this week and will bring valley rain, mountain snow and strong winds to the region.

2. Winter Weather Advisory in effect from 5 AM Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday.

3. Above average temperatures with dry conditions return Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Warm temperatures continued today for the Valley. However, a trough slides in overnight tonight bringing rain to northern California first before over the Sierra by the early morning. This trough also brings an end to the above average temperatures as cooler temperatures will prevail. Tuesday and Wednesday have a 30 to 50 percent chance of highs of at least 75 degrees. The precipitation will gradually slide into the Valley on Tuesday and exit out of Wednesday. The Valley will see a 30 to 50 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain by 11 AM Wednesday.

This trough also brings snow to the Sierra Nevada with a 50 to 80 percent chance of 4 inches of snow above 8,000 feet. Between 6,500 and 8,000 feet there is a 50 percent chance of a trace of snow. Due to this late season snow and the amounts, a Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from 5 AM Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday.

After the trough moves out Wednesday into Thursday, the warm and dry pattern we have had the past few weeks will return. There is a 80 to 90 percent chance of highs of at least 80 degrees for Easter weekend. The CPC have at least 60 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. On the precipitation side, the CPC has a 40 to 50 percent chance of below average in the 6-10 day outlook and near normal in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across central California across the next 24 hours. Strong winds developing over the Sierra Nevada Crest and across the Kern County Desert after 06Z Tuesday with surface winds gusting to 35 knots. 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms after 18Z for the Valley and Sierra Nevada.

FIRE WEATHER

Temepratures remain above season averages through Monday with low minimum RH values resulting, continuing to cure fine fuels across the region and leading to conditions conducive for isolated grass fires to develop. Light terrain driven winds expected through today, but strong winds return on Monday, mainly over the higher terrain. No precipitation is expected today, and then a storm will enter the region on Monday with a chance of rain and snow on Tuesday and Wednesday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.