textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures continue to rise into next week as ridging takes place.

2. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The ridge of high pressure will build over this weekend and allow temperatures to rise today and again Sunday into Monday. For now, we remain under a zonal flow aloft. Today's highs will generally rise to near seasonal values, and there is a moderate to high chance (60-70 percent) for gusts 40 mph or stronger along the Mojave Desert slopes later this afternoon into this evening. Slightly above average temperatures are in store by Sunday. The chances of a 90 degree reading on Sunday are 15 to 25 percent in the San Joaquin Valley and 50 to 60 percent in the Kern County desert. Dry conditions will prevail, although there is a slight (10-15 percent) chance of thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest on Sunday afternoon/evening. Further warming occurs on Monday with steady temperatures for much of next week, and daytime highs rise to 5 to 10 degrees above average for the first week of June. By Monday, daytime humidity returns to similar values during the most recent period with above average temperatures (about a week ago) with minimum values in the teens in the SJ Valley and single digits in the Kern County desert. Temperatures rise a bit more on Tuesday with increasing chances of highs at least 90 degrees in the warmest locations.

A slight lowering in temperatures takes place by the middle of the week with a more noticeable change next weekend. A shortwave trough will pass over the region on Wednesday with the southern edge of a stronger trough on Saturday. For now, not expecting significant temperature changes in our forecast area once we warm back up. Daytime humidity will remain low in the warmest areas, including much of the lower elevations. Per CPC, above average temperatures are favored for the next 6-10 days, as well as the latest 8-14 day period, with near to below average precipitation (slight tilt in the odds.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. The Mojave Desert Slopes near KMHV will have a 60-70 percent probability of surface winds G35kt from 00Z-12Z Sunday.

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum humidity will fall to the single digits in the Mojave Desert in Kern County to the teens in the San Joaquin Valley and lower Sierra foothills, and the West Side Hills adjacent to the Coastal Ranges by early next week as maximum temperatures rise to around ten degrees above seasonal averages. There will be a moderate risk for large grass and brush fires in these areas with rapid spread possible. Breezy conditions will also be possible by the middle of next week in the San Joaquin Valley and coastal ranges.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.