textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend continues into Sunday.

2. The risk for fire starts remains elevated into the weekend due to lowering humidity and warmer temperatures.

3. Another chance for unsettled weather as precipitation, winds, and periodic thunderstorms return by the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Central California will see the continuation of warm and dry conditions during the early part of this week. The associated ridge of high pressure that governing our weather will shift east in the next 24 hours as temperatures remain in steady state going into Monday. Therefore, high temperatures will peak Today with the area along Interstate-5 having 15-35 percent chance of reaching 90 degrees (with the higher probabilities are in the Taft area). Will see minimal cooling on Monday through Wednesday ahead of the next disturbance expected over California.

Later in the period, a disturbance will enter the region around the mid-week period with onset timing of between Wednesday Night and Thursday morning. Due to uncertain nature of dealing with a Closed Low, will maintain a large timing spread until the storm reaches the short-term. For now, will see more significant cooling and an uptick in winds over the favored locations of the Sierra Nevada Crest and the Tehachapi Range/Mojave Desert as the disturbance nears Central California on Thursday. As for precipitation, initial chances over the Central Sierra Nevada will be in the 10-20 percent range for a tenth of an inch by early Thursday.

By Friday, while ensemble uncertainty in the storms placement is high, probability of receiving a tenth of an inch (0.10) jumps to 40-70 percent across the Sierra and between 20-40 percent across the San Joaquin Valley. In addition, probability of receiving a Quarter of an inch (0.25) across the High Sierra during a 24 hour period remains around 30-50 percent. With snow levels remaining above 7,000 feet, the mentioned percentage ranges will place snow accumulation in the 2 to 4 inch category with a 10 percent chance of 5-7 inches over the Sierra Nevada Crest where orographics may enhance precipitation values near the upper range. Uncertainty in the timing of the storms passage will necessitate a mention of precipitation until early next Saturday. Furthermore, will expect Thunderstorm activity for the latter part of the week as ensembles place a 5-15 percent chance of thunderstorms across Central California north of Kern County on Thursday. Thunderstorm probability rise to 15-25 percent on Friday (best chances) and drop back to 5-15 percent on Saturday.

Latest CPC outlooks suggest that above average temperatures will continue trending toward the 40-50 percent chance of being likely leaning above seasonal normals. On the other-hand, precipitation in the 6-10 day period are leaning/likely above normal with the odds trending more toward leaning (33-40 percent) of being above normal for the 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.