textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures.

2. Another low system brings strong winds Thursday within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

DISCUSSION

Latest ensemble upper-air analysis indicates that the trajectory of the next disturbance will move across the area as an inside-slider. Therefore, while precipitation probabilities will be minimal and not become a factor during the latter part of the week, of major concern will be the introduction of significant cooling and strong winds. Afterward, ridging will move through the area ahead of a more significant disturbance around the start of next week.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley remains below 30 percent until Saturday as cooling is introduced to the area. By Saturday, PoE of 85 degrees will hit 30-50 percent south of Fresno County and 10-20 percent around Merced County. Therefore, while Merced will approach 80 degrees, Bakersfield will reach well into the 80s and approach 85 degrees. The warming trend will continue into Sunday ahead of the next disturbance with highs well into the 80s and nearing 90 degrees. Afterward, significant cooling will lower PoE of 80 degrees below 30 percent by the start of the work week and continue toward the middle of the week.

Onset of precipitation is being moved more into Monday and reaching Central California by early in the day. Probability of Measurable Precipitation of accumulating a tenth of a inch (0.10) will reach 20-30 percent between mid-day and late afternoon on Monday and increase to 30-40 percent by Monday Night. Based on the uncertainty of the ensemble upper-air analysis, will expect the precipitation probabilities to linger over Central California until early Wednesday. Due to the nature of a closed low circulation, the end of the forecast period will remain unsettled with possible precipitation extending through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337-339.