textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures continue to rise into next week as ridging takes place.

2. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The ridge of high pressure continues to build over the West Coast. Max temperatures this afternoon were about 8 to 12 degrees above those observed on Friday. The warming trend will continue into Sunday as additional warming will be seen. Yet, the Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 95F-degrees does not go above 20 percent until Monday Afternoon. Monday will see the axis of the high pressure ridge off the California Coast as Max temperatures finally reach well into the 90s. The axis of the ridge moves ashore on Tuesday as a storm pushes into the Pacific Northwest around the middle of next week. While the pattern next week does not indicate a significant cool-down, a slight return of the zonal flow will inhibit temperatures reaching the century mark (100F-deg) through the first days of June. However, a more significant disturbance next weekend show another possible cool-down.

Before starting the more significant warming trend, winds across the Eastern Mojave Desert Slopes will continue to blow in the 30 to 40 mph range through Sunday Morning. Ensemble show a 30-50 percent chance that wind speeds in the 30-40 mph range will continue through early Saturday Evening. Afterward, the ridge pattern moving into will modify the air-mass and lower the gradient strength that is supporting the strong winds. As for temperatures, ensemble surface temperature analysis still shows a Probability of Exceedance (PoE) in the 60 to 80 percent range of reaching 95F-degrees on Tuesday. Otherwise, PoE of reaching 95F-degrees will range from 30 to 60 percent for most of next week. The PoE (max temp > 95F) struggles to even reach 20 percent by the end of next weekend. While 90s will be common next week, PoE does not support reaching 100F-degrees outside of the Mojave Desert as percentages in the San Joaquin Valley do not rise above 20 percent during the period.

As the region dries out from the precipitation, humidity will once again lower as they coincide with temperature rises next week. Dry conditions will prevail. Latest CPC outlooks show above average temperatures and near average (with a slight lean toward below average) precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. The Mojave Desert Slopes near KMHV will have a 60-70 percent probability of surface winds G35kt until 12Z Sunday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.