textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A relatively warm day is in store for Monday, but conditions remain pleasant.
2. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a moderate chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 am Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday.
3. Another warming trend is expected by later this week with well above average temperatures by the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures remain above average today as we have a ridge of high pressure off the coast and a cutoff low over Baja California and Southern California. However, ensembles have that cutoff low sliding east tomorrow increasing winds in eastern Kern County but also brings a slight cooldown to the area. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Mojave Slopes from 11 AM Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday due to a 70 to 95 percent chance of 40 mph gusts along the slopes.
Temperatures rebound on Wednesday and continue to climb through the weekend to next Monday as the ridge of high pressure moves in and strengthens. Friday and Saturday has a 15 to 25 percent chance of highs of at least 85 degrees before probabilities go up on Sunday to 55 to 60 percent. Next Monday has the potential for the first 90s of the year in the Valley with a 35 to 40 percent chance of a high of at least 90. The desert locations in Kern County have a 50 to 80 percent chance of hitting 90 on Sunday before a 20 to 55 percent chance of a high of at least 95 on Monday. The CPC outlooks continue to show above average temperatures and below average precipitation for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory from 11 AM Tuesday to 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338.
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