textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warming trend into next week.
2. A warmer system slides into Northern California with precipitation in the northern portions of the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday morning. Snow levels will rise to 9,500 to 10,000 feet by Wednesday morning.
DISCUSSION
We will see slightly warmer temperatures overnight tonight into Sunday morning with less than 10 percent of freezing temperatures. As model ensembles have evolved over the past day, the ridge of high pressure has become harder to budge and will continue to warm temperatures through the week. However, the models have backed off on the precipitation as the latest runs have trended more northward. However, there still remains a 80 to 100 percent chance of integrated water vapor transport values of 250 kg/(m*s) as the ridge also slides south briefly. There is a 35 to 50 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain total from Fresno County northward in the Valley ending 4 am Thursday. South of Fresno, the probability of a tenth of an inch drops to 15 to 20 percent. The foothills are seeing a 20 to 40 percent chance of an inch of rain in Mariposa County foothills for 48 hours ending 4 am Thursday. South of Mariposa County has a 10 to 30 percent chance of a quarter of an inch in 48 hours ending 4 am Thursday.
By Friday, the ridge will slide back up north and strengthen into next weekend. The CPC outlooks show a major change as there is a 70 to 80 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. However, both outlooks favor a below average precipitation at 33 to 50 percent chance.
AVIATION
VFR conditions across central California for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
ISSUED: 02/21/2026 12:51 EXPIRES: 02/22/2026 23:59
On Sunday February 22 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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