textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a high probability of gusts above 45 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect from 11 am Tuesday through 5 AM Wednesday for this area.
2. Another warming trend is expected by later this week with well above average temperatures by the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures drop off a little today as the cutoff low makes it journey east. However, the winds pick up due to the cutoff low moving especially in the Mojave Slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect until 5 AM Wednesday for the Mojave Slopes for gusts up to 50 mph this evening.
The big story is the ridge that slides in Wednesday and strengthens through the weekend. Temperatures will increase through the weekend into next week with the possibility of records being broken or tied. Monday has a 25 to 55 percent chance of highs of at least 90 for most of the Valley which would be records especially for Merced, Madera, and Hanford. Overnight lows also will see an increase but a less than 20 percent chance of lows above 60 degrees until Monday when it becomes a 15 to 40 percent chance across the Valley. This good recovery overnight keeps the heat risk to minor. However, the desert will see a 5 to 25 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees on Monday and a 55 to 75 percent chance of highs hitting 95 on Tuesday bringing some portions to a moderate heat risk. The CPC continues to favor the warm trend of above average temperatures having at least 80 percent chance in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
FIRE WEATHER
Temperatures will increase along with drying conditions into next week. Fuel moisture will decrease but remains good. Winds will return to diurnal on Wednesday for much of the region.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ338.
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