textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week.
2. Warming trend throughout the week.
3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold.
DISCUSSION
Winds will continue to die down today as the inside slider from this weekend moves more eastward. As we continue on with the week, high pressure will begin to build along the West Coast which will contribute to a warming trend beginning today and extending to the end of the week. There is moderate to high probability (60 to 80 percent) that the majority of the San Joaquin Valley will be flirting with the 90's on Wednesday. By Thursday, the SJV again has moderate to high probabilities of being within the mid to upper 90's. There is a low possibility (5 to 15 percent) of flirting with those triple digit temps once again on Thursday and Friday, particularly within Fresno, Madera and Merced counties. With this building high pressure, the relative humidities will continue to stay low (less than 15 percent) through Friday.
Looking ahead into next week, an upper level trough will pass over the Pacific Northwest. Temperatures with this are looking to be in the low to mid 90s at the warmest locations.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
FIRE WEATHER
Low relative humidity values continue throughout the Valley this week. Most areas within the SJV will be below 15 percent. The predominant threats for fire weather will be rapidly developing and spreading grass fires. Winds will be lighter compared to the weekend. A warming and drying trend will move into Central California throughout Friday. Thus, elevated fire weather throughout the week. There will be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery for the latter part of the week.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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