textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Red Flag Warning in effect from Saturday morning until Monday evening for the San Joaquin Valley and West Side Hills of the Coastal Range.

2. Red Flag Warning in effect until Sunday Evening for the Mojave Desert and Eastern Slopes of Kern County.

2. High Wind Warning in effect until late Sunday night for the Mojave Desert Slopes.

3. Slight cooldown this weekend before warmer temperatures return next week.

4. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams, as waters are still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Dry conditions prevail until next week with a cooling trend over the weekend. However, gusty winds combined with low relative humidity will take place this weekend across much of the region. An inside-slider trough will be responsible for this weather pattern. Probabilities for gusts at least 45 mph will be consistently high (near 90 percent) across the Mojave Desert slopes and moderate to high (50-60 percent) for gusts at least 60 mph for the weekend. Also, moderate probabilities of 45 mph gusts are shown over the desert floor through Sunday evening. Gusts of 35 mph also have at least a moderate probability to occur in the San Joaquin Valley, the West Side Hills, and the adjacent coastal ranges.

High pressure begins to build back into the region by the middle of next week. Much warmer temperatures return by Wednesday with highs in the mid to upper 90s. Chances of readings at least 95 degrees in both the San Joaquin Valley and the Mojave Desert in eastern Kern County during Wednesday through next Friday are at 60-70 percent. Remember to practice water safety, especially when we get hotter again later next week.

Latest CPC outlooks show a 40-50 percent chance of above average temperatures and average precipitation (which is near zero at this time of year).

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Gusts to 25 kts will develop at the TAF sites by Saturday afternoon.

FIRE WEATHER

A Red Flag Warning will be in effect in the Kern County desert, West Side Hills adjacent to the coastal ranges, and the San Joaquin Valley from 5 AM Saturday until Monday evening. Gusty winds combined with low relative humidity and dry fuels will occur during this time frame. Large grass and brush fires have a higher risk to start and rapidly spread.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Wind Warning until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339. Red Flag Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ298-299. Red Flag Warning from 5 AM Saturday to 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ579-580. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ332.