textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of the area until 11 PM Saturday.

2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk, including triple-digit heat, in the lower elevations Thursday until next weekend. Some pockets of Major Heat Risk, particularly near urban areas.

3. Hot and dry conditions will create increased fire risk in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend.

4, Chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevadas the next few days, which may include dry lightning.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

A Heat Advisory in effect for the majority of the area until 11 PM Saturday.

The heat continues, with the majority of the Valley sitting at a 70-90% chance to exceed 100 degrees Saturday and 50-60% to exceed 100 degrees on Sunday. Sunday's slight rollback in temperature is only a momentary and minor oscillation in the intense ridge building over the West Coast, as we expect high temperatures to stay near or even markedly exceed 100 degrees for the beginning of next week. With overnight lows only in the upper 60s to low 70s (particularly near urban areas), the accumulated heat exposure is significant. It is imperative to ensure access to proper cooling, stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and breathable clothing if you must be outdoors. Take extra precaution for vulnerable people and for animals and check in on those in need. It is likely new heat products will be issued for the coming week.

The good news is that clusters are in unusually strong agreement that the ridge will break down to some degree later next week, which should help us return to more reasonable temperatures near climatological normals. That being said, the prolonged period of hot and dry conditions will create continued elevated fire conditions, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties, though all areas should exercise caution, as we have seen many fires across the entire area recently. This fire risk will be augmented by thunderstorm risk in the Sierra Nevada every day, which includes a risk of dry lightning.

As people attempt to cool down from these hot temperatures, please remember that waterways are still running cold. Even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in 10-15 minutes in water that is 50 to 60 degrees.

Aviation

VFR conditions expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next 24 hours. Strong sustained winds with gusts up to 24 kts expected at KBFL.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ300>321-332.