textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Above average temperatures continue across the region. Low minimum relative humidities, especially in the Sierra Nevada.

2. Precipitation chances will return this weekend.

3. Up to 60% chance for dense morning fog in the northern San Joaquin Valley Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures across central California are expected to be a few degrees cooler on Tuesday in comparison from the previous few days. This is primarily due to a weak shortwave low pressure trough scraping by through northern California this evening, that will be located just to the east of the region Tuesday morning. On the backside of the trough, low level winds will shift to the north, cooling temps a few degrees, but will remain above season averages. This will be most noticable in the morning hours, when lows will fall nearer to the dew points, and more saturated air will emerge. An inversion within the lower levels of the atmosphere will trap this air at the surface, resulting in potential for dense fog to develop, especially in the northern San Joaquin Valley. For Tuesday morning, the areas between Livingston and Chowchilla have a 50 to 60 percent chance for visibilities one quarter mile or less between 6 and 9 AM; additional chances around 30 to 40 percent are present for the stretch from Visalia to Delano.

The trough will leave as quickly as it arrives, and will be fully to the east of the region by Tuesday afternoon, allowing another high pressure ridge to build in over the following days. Temperatures in the valley areas will warm sharply, again approaching ten degrees above season averages. For the south valley, there is a 60 to 70 percent probability for highs to exceed 80 degrees on Thursday, with probs at 30 to 40 percent in the north valley. However, cooler temperatures and wetter conditions are in store for the weekend.

Late Thursday into early Friday, a weak cutoff area of low pressure remains favorable to track to the south of the region over Baja and Southern California. The strength and impacts of this system have been on the downtrend, outside of an increase of cloud cover. However, model guidance indicates that a second, more robust low pressure system will align itself with the Pacific coast Friday evening into Saturday, bringing a strong influence of moisture to the local area. Between 4 PM Fri and 4 AM Sat, ensemble guidance expresses a 50 to 60 percent probability for one-tenth of rainfall in the San Joaquin Valley, and 70 to 80 percent for the Sierra Nevada; probs are 20 to 30 percent for most of Kern County. The low will push onshore and progress into the Great Basin on Saturday, with minimal precipitation chances on the backside of the system. However, a second strong low pressure system is progged to take its place early Sunday morning, coming onshore early Monday morning. Wetting rain probs stand at 30 to 40 percent for the valley between 10 PM Sun and 10 AM Mon, but 50 to 60 percent in the central Sierra.

Across the three day period between Fri and Mon, snow levels will gradually decrease with each passing system, starting from 8,000 feet at the start of the period to around 5,000 feet Monday evening. Above these levels, there is 50 to 60 percent prob for 6 inches or more of snowfall, and 70 to 80 percent above 8,000 feet. Expected snowfall in these areas ranges between 5 and 12 inches, though higher elevations have potential near 24 inches over the period.

While the weekend certainly appears active, a continuation of wet weather is favorable into next week as well. Ensemble cluster analysis shows favorability for an additional low pressure trough to drop along the Pacific Coast into the midweek period. While much can change in the forecast, there is significance in the ensemble guidance expressing an additional 60 to 70 percent prob for one-tenth inch of rainfall over the region next Wed into Thu.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours. The potential for dense fog and MVFR through LIFR conditions redevelop at 08Z Tuesday with up to 60% chance of Dense Fog at KMCE.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 11/09/2026 14:51 EXPIRES: 11/10/2026 23:59

On Tuesday November 10 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.