textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger this week.

2. Warming trend continues for the remainder of this week.

3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Thanks to the high pressure that is continuing to build, temperatures today are looking to be a bit warmer today compared to yesterday. Most places were flirting with the 90s, hitting the upper 80s yesterday. Today, there is high confidence (70 to 90 percent) of exceeding 90 degrees. For Visalia, there is moderate confidence (50 percent) for exceeding 90 degrees. There is low to moderate confidence (25 to 50 percent) that temperatures will exceed 92 degrees today. There is low confidence (10 to 30 percent) of exceeding temperatures above 93 degrees. There is still a moderate risk for wildfires developing today, as the minimum relative humidity values range from 10 to 15 percent in the valley and 20 to 30 percent in the foothills. In the Mojave Desert and the slopes, that percentage is much lower, ranging from 5 to 10 percent. Winds are still expected to be calmer today. Looking into later this week, temperatures are looking to get into the mid 90s, as there is a high chance on Thursday (60 to 70 percent) and then on Friday a 50 to 70 percent chance of exceeding 95 degrees.

Through the weekend, there will still be a moderate chance to reach the mid 90s for the lower elevations within the SJV. The highs begin to drop from the mid 90s to the 90s, then into the mid 80s as an upper level trough looks to move into the Pacific Northwest late Monday into Tuesday. Precipitation, if any, will be confined to the highest points of the Sierra Nevada range.

With these warming temperatures, water ways will be running cold. Exercise caution around lakes, rivers, and streams as even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in cold water.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Low relative humidity values will continue throughout the San Joaquin Valley, the West Side Hills of the Coastal Range, the lower Sierra Nevada Foothills, Kern Count mountains and the desert for the remainder of the week. Fast moving and developing grass and brush fires will be the main concern regarding available fuels. Winds will be light, but with the warming trend and lowering humidity there will be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.