textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lingering moisture will continue producing mainly light showers overnight tonight.

2. Expect mainly clear skies by Saturday afternoon following low cloud cover over the Sierra Nevada, adjacent foothills, and the Kern County mountains.

3. Dense fog returns to the Central Valley by Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Light precipitation continues over Merced County and over the mountain areas at this time. Expect partial clearing overnight into Saturday. Low clouds will persist over the foothills and mountains, as well as the southern and eastern portions of the San Joaquin Valley until Saturday afternoon, especially along the north and west facing slopes.

Dense fog makes its return by late Saturday night and Sunday morning. High pressure builds into the region into early next week. Thus, the chance for fog and low clouds will continue for a few days, or through the end of the year. Generally seasonably cool temperatures prevail for the next several days.

Models project another low pressure system to arrive on New Year's Eve with moisture making landfall into the coastal areas of Southern and Central California. Precipitation amounts and timing are uncertain at this point, but models have been showing this for several consecutive runs. Chances for precipitation continue into next Friday, with the highest chances towards Kern County. Snow levels at this time are forecast above 7,000 feet with this system. Currently, we are looking at lesser amounts of precipitation. The probabilities are generally moderate (around a 50 percent chance) for 24 hour amounts at or above 0.25 inch for New Year's Day and next Friday. An inch could fall over much of our mountain areas, although the probability is up to 30 percent. More to follow as we get closer.

Latest outlooks from the Climate Prediction Center show near normal temperatures and above average precipitation (up to 50-60 percent chance over our southern portions) for the 6-10 day period. Then, a trend to near average precipitation to as much as a 40 percent chance of continued above average precipitation (highest chances south) is shown in the 8-14 day period with near average temperatures remaining.

AVIATION

Light winds with generally VFR conditions over the next 24 hours, except for MVFR to IFR cigs over the Sierra Nevada and Kern County mountains through 00Z Sunday. Scattered light precipitation remains through 12Z Saturday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Saturday December 27, 2025, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for CAZ323- 326>331. Winter Weather Advisory until midnight PST tonight for CAZ334- 336.