textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend will continue today through next week with afternoon temperatures approaching 10 degrees above average by the weekend.

2. Daily and monthly record high maximum temperatures will be challenged next week.

3. Stronger wind gusts expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this weekend. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from Saturday morning through early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

The area of high pressure building over the western US over the last few days is eroding this morning, ushering in more zonal flow and maintaining above-average temperatures over central California. A buckling of the zonal pattern is expected to develop a shortwave trough that will pass quickly through the Great Basin Saturday into early Sunday. Stronger winds associated with the trough will cause stronger gusts to develop in the Mojave Slopes during this time frame, and as such a Wind Advisory has been issued.

A return to a stable pattern is in store for most of next week as an area of high pressure builds over the desert southwest from the east Pacific. The system will bring about an additional warming trend for central California, with afternoon highs approaching 20 degrees above season averages. New daily high temperature records are likely across the San Joaquin Valley, with some areas likely to break all-time monthly records for March. While the high is expected to weaken and move east towards the end of next week, temperatures will remain much above season averages.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Warming air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will lead to a decrease in minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with a sharp decrease in 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and an increase in ERC in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wildland fire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 8 AM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.