textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory in effect until 1 AM for San Luis Reservoir.

2. Fire Weather Watch in effect Friday 9 AM to Saturday 11 PM for the following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, and Lake Isabella.

3. Minor to Moderate Heat Risk Thursday before a cooldown into the weekend.

4. Dry and very windy conditions will create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Windy conditions continue at San Luis Reservoir, where a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect until 1 AM Thursday. Current guidance hints at further wind products being likely across the area this week.

Fire Weather Watch in effect Friday 9 AM to Saturday 11 PM for following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, Lake Isabella. Strong winds and low relative humidities expected.

The heat continues, with much of the area under minor to moderate heat risk tomorrow, with the Valley expected to see high temperatures in the upper 90s and low 100s. By early Friday, a decently strong trough will approach the Pacific Northwest. In addition to stopping subsidence from the ridge currently over the area, this will bring strong northwesterly flow. As such, high temperatures will likely dip to climatological normals on Friday before dropping below normal over the weekend. While temperatures will be more comfortable, the increased winds coupled with continued dry conditions will result in increased fire danger beginning Thursday and continuing through the entire weekend, with the period of highest risk being Friday and Saturday. This risk will apply across the entire area, but will be most pronounced in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. A 5-10% risk of lightning in the upper Sierras Wednesday, Friday, and Sunday will further compound the risk.

In addition to the fire risk, the windier conditions will likely necessitate the issuance of wind products. If boating or driving this weekend, take appropraite precautions or reconsider plans now. Monitor conditions and NWS Hanford during this period.

As the heat continues, be sure to take appropriate precautions and check in on and make arrangements for vulnerable people and animals. Brachycephalic (short-nose) breeds will have particular difficulties with the heat and should be kept indoors.

Water temperatures are still in the upper 60s and much colder near water flowing from higher elevations. Exercise cold water safety at all times.

We have had several fires over the last few days. As we near Independence Day, please follow all regulations involving fireworks and exercise extreme caution.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Stronger winds of 10-12 kts at and near KBFL.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Fire Weather Watch from Friday morning through Saturday evening for CAZ298-299-595. Lake Wind Advisory until 1 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ300.