textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures continue to rise this week as ridging takes place.

2. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Dry conditions will prevail this week, although there is up to a ten percent chance of afternoon/evening thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest today until Tuesday. The warming trend continues today and the next couple of days, while steady temperatures occur for the latter part of this week. Meanwhile, the chances for highs at least 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley are 20-30 percent, while the probabilities for the Mojave Desert in Kern County are at 65-75 percent. Highs on Monday and Tuesday reach 7-10 degrees above average. The chances for a 95 degree reading are 40-50 percent for the valley and 55-65 percent for the desert by Tuesday. Humidity will also decrease as we continue to warm, and minimum values fall below 10 percent in the desert and into the teens in the valley by Monday. Expect similar values for Tuesday.

For Wednesday, winds increase towards the west side of the San Joaquin Valley and the adjacent coastal ranges, courtesy of a shortwave trough passing over Northern California. The chances for a gust of at least 30 mph are about 60-70 towards Pacheco Pass and San Luis Reservoir, as well as the mountains near Coalinga by the evening. We are looking at some increase in winds towards the Mojave Desert slopes, but with a 35-45 percent chance of gusts at least 40 mph at this time. High temperatures continue above average through next weekend, but with a minor decrease by next weekend. Latest CPC outlooks continue to show at least a slight tilt towards above average temperatures and near to below average (slight tilt in the odds towards below average in the northern portions) precipitation through the second week of June.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum humidity will fall to the single digits in the Mojave Desert in Kern County to the teens in the San Joaquin Valley and lower Sierra foothills, and the West Side Hills adjacent to the Coastal Ranges by Monday as maximum temperatures rise to around ten degrees above seasonal averages. There will be a moderate risk for large grass and brush fires in these areas with rapid spread possible. Breezy conditions will also be possible by Wednesday afternoon and evening in the San Joaquin Valley and coastal ranges, as well as the Mojave Desert slopes.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.