textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Major Heat Risk for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Slopes and Desert with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect through at least Wednesday.
2. Prolonged heat is expected to affect the SJ valley and adjacent foothills with a Heat Advisory in effect through at least Wednesday.
3. Dry with the warming temperatures point to increased fire weather concerns for most of the week.
DISCUSSION
High pressure continues to dominate over the Western United States with above average temperatures over Central California. Bakersfield set a record high temperature on Tuesday of at least 109 degrees. For Wednesday, the Valley sees a brief drop in temperatures with a 15 to 35 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees before increasing on Thursday and Friday to 25 to 45 percent in the Valley. The Mojave continues to be at 15 to 45 percent of highs of at least 110 with Indian Wells Valley at 40 to 70 percent chance through Sunday.
Temperatures climb back up Saturday and Sunday with Major Heat RIsk expanding in the Valley. The Valley has a 50 to 85 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees on Saturday and Sunday with a 5 to 15 percent chance of at least 110 on Sunday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 70s over the weekend bringing the potential of an Extreme Heat Warning instead of a Heat Advisory. Monday brings a cooldown into next week as a trough develops off the Pacific Northwest. The CPC hints at this change with a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook and 33 to 40 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339. Heat Advisory until 8 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ301>317-319-321- 332-334>336.
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