textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Areas of dense fog return to the San Joaquin Valley from early Sunday morning until next week with drying and warming conditions elsewhere.
DISCUSSION
Current satellite is showing thin, high clouds over parts of Central California, though these clouds may not have much influence on the possibility for fog development tonight and tomorrow morning. Chances for quarter mile visibilities are around 30 to 50% for the center of the Valley by 7AM Sunday, though other models have those chances around 50 to 70 percent, so uncertainty remains for tonight. The possibility for this dense fog also continues through the next week as high pressure sets up up over California, the stable air allowing for water to condense at the surface.
Other then the Valley fog, conditions will continue to warm up and dry out as we look further into the week, with the Valley reaching into the 60's for a high temperature by late next week. Dryness is also expected to prevail as the ridge over the west coast strengthens and remains in place. The Climate Prediction Center also holds this pattern into day 14 on January 24th as above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation is expected for the west coast.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the San Joaquin Valley, but with a 35-45% chance for IFR to LIFR conditions for portions of the San Joaquin Valley, including KMCE, KMER, and KVIS from 11Z until 18Z Sunday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Sunday January 11 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Burn Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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