textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory continues for West Side Coastal Mountains north of 198 and San Luis Reservoir through 11 PM PDT Saturday, July 4th, beware of unsettled waters.

2. Dry and breezy conditions create elevated fire risk into next week, especially in the Mojave Desert.

3. Near-normal temperatures expected across the area today, then a warming trend over the holiday weekend.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Weather remains pretty settled this 4th of July weekend. Temperatures will begin to warm up as a ridge becomes the dominant feature. For the 4th of July, expect temperatures to be near normal and winds light, leading to a pleasant evening for activities. By the middle of next week, however, temperatures will begin to climb to above normal. This is due to flow beginning to shift to a more northward direction. This will settle a high pressure over the Four Corners Region and bring heat.

While the above normal temperatures isn't expected until the middle of next week, the temperatures will begin to rise in anticipation of the event. Today, there is only a 10% Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 97 for Fresno, Madera, Merced, and Kings Counties. Further South, there is a 10% PoE of reaching 100 in Bakersfield. The Mojave Deserts will see a PoE of 10% of 102 today. By Tuesday, the PoE of reaching 100 degrees in the Southern Portions of the San Joaquin Valley creeps up to 17%, while the Mojave Desert is at 100%. Wednesday has PoE of reaching 100 degrees at 18% in Southern San Joaquin Valley to 10% in the Northern portion. Thursday and Friday have PoE of reaching 100 degrees between 50-90%, with the lower chances being in the North Valley and higher in the South.

There remains little to no chances of rain within the Valley during this time period. The Sierra Nevada, however, will have a slight chance for afternoon thunderstorms at the highest peaks. Today, there is a 10% chance of thunderstorms at Tioga Pass, but that percentage steadily decreases as the elevation does.

The latest CPC outlook continues to favor above average temperatures for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods. They're also favoring a slight (33-40% chance) of below normal precipitation, particularly along the Sierra Nevada Crest in the 6-10 day outlook. The CPC is also highlighting a Slight Risk (20-40%)for Hazardous temps from the 11th through the 17th, with the 12th through the 15th being a Moderate Risk (40-60%).

As temperatures begin to rise and people seek out ways to cool off, please remember that running streams, rivers and lakes will be colder than the air temperature. Follow all posted signage and law enforcement advice regarding waterways. Exercise cold water safety, as even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in cold water.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Slight chance (5-10%) of thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada Crest from Fresno County northward between 20Z Saturday and 03Z Sunday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300.