textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

DISCUSSION

The influence of the ridge that has bought warm weather and high pressure over the past several days remains, but the overall influence of this ridge is weakening. While remaining hot, temperatures will be cooler today in the Central Valley compared to the intense heat yesterday. The probability of temperatures reaching at least a 100 degrees in the Central Valley today is around 35-45 percent; with an almost 100 percent chance of temperatures reaching 95 degrees in the Central Valley. The heat will therefore persist throughout the day today with a moderate heat risk remaining in place. Make sure to stay hydrated and remain in the shade when possible if you have to be outside for extended periods of time.

By this weekend temperatures will cool as a trough moves into our region. Expect highs by Sunday to decrease into the mid-80s to low- 90s with lows in the upper 50s to low 60s throughout the Central Valley. The trough that will move into our region this weekend will bring strong winds into the region by Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Wind gusts will likely quickly decrease by mid-morning Sunday and be much lighter by the afternoon. In addition, minimum RH values will be approximately 15-25 percent across the region on Saturday evening, leading to a potential increase in fire weather concerns this weekend. The probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph will be around 60-70 percent in the Central Valley, a region typically less prone to seeing strong wind gusts. Along the higher Sierra terrain near Yosemite National Park, the probability of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph is approximately 60-70 percent, with potentially higher chances in isolated regions. In the Mojave Desert, an area particularly prone to wind gusts, the probability of gusts exceeding 40 mph is approximately 60-70 percent Saturday afternoon, with some isolated areas potentially seeing stronger wind gusts. There is about a 60% chance of wind gusts exceeding 20 mph along Lake Isabella. Remain cautious in regions particularly prone to fires this weekend, especially Saturday night.

The deep trough that will move into our area this weekend will likely move out by early next week, and a ridge will potentially build in our area by mid to late week next week, though certainty in the timeframe of the ridge is low at this time. By next week temperatures will begin to warm from the mid to upper-80s, early in the week, to likely the low to mid-90s, late in the week. The probability of high temperatures of at least 90 degrees will be approximately 50-60 percent by Wednesday of next week, and temperatures will likely remain about average to slightly above average on Thursday with the probability of temperatures reaching at least 90 degrees at approximately 70-80 percent in the Central Valley. The probability of temperatures reaching above 95 degrees is almost 0 percent on Wednesday of next week in the Central Valley, and by Thursday the probability is only about 15-25 percent. Temepratures will therefore be warm but only slightly above average for this time of year.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds at Bakersfield will likely shift from the NW to the E by early Saturday morning.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None

PREV DISCUSSION

/issued 1050 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026/

AVIATION... VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours. Winds at Bakersfield will likely shift from the NW to the E by early Saturday morning.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.