textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind Advisory for the San Joaquin Valley from 7 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday for the Mojave Slopes and Desert. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for San Luis Reservoir. Lake Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 11 PM Sunday for Lake Isabella.

2. Minimum relative humidity between 15-30 percent and high confidence for 30 mph wind gusts lead to Elevated Fire Risk for the Valley and Foothills Saturday night through Sunday morning.

3. Minor Heat Risk over the weekend into next week with a cooling trend this weekend. Although much cooler, high confidence that temperatures will be above normal.

DISCUSSION

Winds are picking up across the area as a trough continues to slide in the area due to the strong gradient between the core of the trough and the ridge of high pressure that has moved east. Temperatures will be cooler on Sunday with a 80 to 90 percent chance of highs below 90 degrees in the Valley. Winds decrease late Sunday morning but winds will remain gusty around Lake Isabella. Wind Advisories will gradually expire across the region on Sunday morning when the winds decrease starting in the Valley before the Mojave Slopes and San Luis Reservoir.

Temperatures begin to rebound on Monday as the trough lifts. In its place, a rex block will emerge off the coast and the ridge across the Southern U.S. will strengthen leading to the warmup. However, temperatures will remain above average with a 30 to 55 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees in the Valley from Thursday into next weekend. The CPC outlooks shows a major shift from a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook to a 33 to 50 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook. The CPC also shows a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook hinting again at a pattern change.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. Strong NW gusts expected across most of the area.

FIRE WEATHER

A low pressure system moving into the area is gusty winds to the central San Joaquin Valley and Sierra Nevada crest of Madera County late Saturday afternoon. Gusts of 30 and 45 mph respectively will overlap with relative humidity around 20 to 30 percent before evening recovery begins. While both minimum relative humidity and fuel curing are not at critical levels, there is moderate fire weather concerns through Sunday morning as strong winds will support rapid initial spread of any fire starts.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory until 10 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ300. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ301>307-309>312-315. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ332.