textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A disturbance moving in on Thursday night and Friday will bring more chances of precipitation to the area. Another disturbance is expected to bring chances of precipitation to the area on Sunday.

2. Dense Fog is possible across the San Joaquin Valley on Saturday morning.

3. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures will prevail for most of next week.

DISCUSSION

After a foggy Christmas morning, visibility has improved as an atmospheric river system to the north of our area and streaming across the PAC NW has provided for mixing to take place. Meanwhile, low clouds are now prevalent over the eastern portion of the San Joaquin Valley and over the upslope favored foothills in Tulare and Kern Counties with high clouds streaming overhead elsewhere in our CWFA. SREF is indicating a shortwave associated with the moisture stream to our north pushing into Norcal tonight which will is likely to provide for enough mixing to inhibit widespread dense fog from forming in the San Joaquin Valley tonight. The PoE of visibility dropping below a quarter mile along the SR 99 corridor is between 10 and 30 percent on Thursday morning. A stronger shortwave is progged to push through Norcal Thursday night and Friday morning and will likely bring precipitation to the northern portion of our CWFA with the snow level running between 6000 and 6500 feet. The PoE for 12 inches or more of snow on Thursday night and Friday is less than 10 percent and for 8 inches or more of snow is 30 to 50 percent north of Fresno County so will not issue and winter weather highlights at this time. QPF progs for the San Joaquin Valley are showing a tenth to a quarter inch in Merced County with a tenth of an inch or less further southward to the SR 198 corridor.

This system will move east of our area by Friday night sand shortwave ridging will follow on Saturday. If enough clearing takes place, dense fog will be possible across much of the San Joaquin Valley on Satruday morning. Ensemble members are in fairly good agreement with another shortwave moving north of our area on Sunday which will bring chances of light precipitation to most of our area.

Ensemble means are showing a ridge prevailing over central CA Monday through New Year's Day which will provide for dry conditions and near seasonable temperatures for our area.

AVIATION

(06Z ISSUANCE)

In the San Joaquin Valley, areas of MVFR with local IFR in low clouds, mist and haze through 12Z. From 12Z Thu to 18Z Thu, areas of IFR possible in low clouds and mist with localized areas of LIFR in fog. However, there is less than 30% chance for LIFR conditions at all area airports. After 18Z Thu, areas of MVFR return with local IFR in low clouds, mist and haze.

In the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills, areas of MVFR and local mountain obscuring IFR in upslope clouds and precipitation after 12Z Thu. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

Over the West Side Hills and in the Tehachapi Mountains and Kern County Deserts, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 12/25/2024 13:34 EXPIRES: 12/26/2024 23.59

On Thursday December 26 2024, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Madera Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.