textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Strong system moves in through Thursday bringing moderate rain and heavy snow to the region.

2. Winter Storm Warning in effect through 10 PM Wednesday for the Sierra Nevada and Kern Mountains.

3. Winter Storm Warning in effect 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM Thursday for the I-5/Grapevine area.

4. Strong wind gusts expected along area mountain ranges, along with the Mojave Desert and portions of the southern San Joaquin Valley. Wind Advisory in effect through 4 pm Wednesday for the West Side Hills and Mojave Slopes and through 7 PM this evening for the southern San Joaquin Valley.

5. General risk of thunderstorms for much of the region today and Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

A strong winter storm started to move into the forecast area last night and this morning with rain spreading over the western and northern portions of the San Joaquin Valley and into the foothills north and east of Fresno. Precipitation will continue to spread across the region through this afternoon, with mountain snow increasing over the Sierra above 5000 feet. Gusty mainly S winds will also impact portions of the area, strongest over the westside mountains, in the southern San Joaquin Vly and into the mtns and deserts. Advisory level gusts of 35 to 50 mph are expected and Wind Advisories are in effect for these areas.

With increasingly cold air aloft (down to -27 deg C at H5 by late today), cyclonic flow aloft and the area near a 100 kt jet exit region, there is a slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon into the evening. Some thunderstorms could have heavy rain, small hail and strong, gusty winds.

As the main energy with this first storm system moves E tonight, it looks like rainfall will taper off some over the San Joaquin Valley but with moist WSW flow at mid levels levels persisting, additional significant precipitation is expected in the Sierra, with snow levels continuing to lower down to near 3000 feet north to 4000 feet south by early Tuesday morning. Snow levels will also lower to near 4000 feet in the Tehachapi Mtns by early Tuesday morning.

A second storm system and cold upper level trof will affect the area generally from Tue afternoon through Wed. Additional significant rain and mountain snow are expected, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms Tue afternoon and evening for central and northern parts of the forecast area.

The most significant concern with the storms this week is the snow and its impacts. This is especially true Tue into Wed as a stronger, colder second trough slides through the area, lowering snow levels drastically to 2,000 to 2,500 feet by 7 AM Wed. The best case (low end) snow amounts shows a 90 percent chance of 2 to 3 feet of snow above 5,000 feet and 3 to 4 feet above 7,000 feet. On the other extreme, the worst case shows 5 to 6 feet above 5,500 feet and 6 to 8 feet above 7,000 feet. The lowering snow elevations also brings the potential for snow on the passes as there is a 21 percent chance of 4 inches of snow on Tejon Pass and a 5 to 20 percent chance of 4 inches of snow on Tehachapi Pass. There also is a 5 to 10 percent chance of a trace even in the Valley.

The bulk of the precipitation from the first storm will occur through early this evening. Latest probabilities have a 55 to 80 percent chance of half an inch or more of rain in 24 hours in the Valley ending 10 PM this evening.

The second storm system will bring a 45 to 60 percent chance of another half an inch of rain ending 4 PM Wed for the Valley. As the trough lifts on Thu and Fri, a shortwave trough slides across northern California bringing another chance of showers, but lighter. Temperatures will remain below average heading into the weekend. In the long term, the CPC shows a change. The temperature outlooks go from a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook to near normal in the 8- 14 day outlook. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks continue to favor above average precipitation at 40 to 50 percent for the Valley.

AVIATION

CIGs begin to lower around 09Z to 12Z to FL050 from FL100. Precipitation is expected to enter the TAF sites around 06Z Monday before extending after 09Z through the rest of the period. MVFR conditions begin to be possible after 15Z Monday in heavier showers lowering visibility. IFR to MVFR conditions possible in the mountains after 09Z due to increasing clouds and the precipitation. There is a 10 to 20 percent chance of thunderstorms after 18Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 02/15/2026 14:05 EXPIRES: 02/16/2026 23:59

On Monday February 16 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ300-308-313- 337>339. Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for CAZ309-310- 314>316. Winter Storm Warning until 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ318-320- 322>331-333-334-336. Winter Storm Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 9 AM PST Thursday for CAZ335.