textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. There is high confidence for a strong system to approach central California Sunday through Thursday next week bringing moderate rain and heavy snow to the region.

2. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 pm Sunday through 10 PM Wednesday for the Sierra Nevada and Kern Mountains.

3. 40 to 50 percent chance of an inch of snow in 24 hours ending 4 pm Wednesday along Tejon Pass has led to a Winter Storm Watch for the I-5/Grapevine area.

4. Strong wind gusts expected along area mountain ranges, along with the Mojave Desert and portions of the southern San Joaquin Valley.

5. General Risk for thunderstorms in portions of the San Joaquin Valley Monday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Composite reflectivity on the radar has detected a few showers beginning to move into the San Francisco Bay Area. The first trough also has been picked up by the satellite as it spins off the coast of California. The trough will gradually slide in through Sunday with the first showers appearing in the San Joaquin Valley beginning in the late afternoon. Latest models have the heavier amounts of precipitation moving in on Monday for the first wave. Ensembles show a stronger and colder trough moving in Tuesday into Wednesday, which lowers the snow levels for most of the Valley and Sierra Nevada down to 2,500 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Snow levels will drop to 3,000 to 3,500 feet in Kern County.

Latest NBM probabilities have a 75 to 100 percent of at least four feet of snow above 6,000 feet. The foothills also will see snow as the snow levels drop with a 30 to 50 percent chance of 4 inches or more of snow Tuesday into Wednesday at 2,500 feet for locations such as Oakhurst, Mid Pines, El Portal and Lake Isabella. The lowering snow levels also will impact both Tehachapi Pass and Tejon Pass as there is a 50 to 60 percent chance of an inch of snow through 4 am Thursday and a 43 percent chance of 4 inches at the city of Tehachapi. In the Valley, there is a 40 to 50 percent chance of at least an inch of rain in storm total ending 4 AM Thursday. However, there is no areas of Excessive Rainfall yet highlighted in the Valley.

The second colder trough lifts away on Thursday. However, ensembles show a shortwave trough moving through quickly Friday into next Saturday. The CPC hints at a change as it goes from a 40 to 60 percent chance of below average temperatures in the 6-10 day outlook to a sliver of the 33-40 percent chance of below average in Mariposa County but the rest of the area at near normal. On the precipitation end, it shifts from a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation gradient in the 6-10 day outlook to a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average with some areas of near normal in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail across the region for the next 24 hours. However, CIGs begin to lower around 09Z to 12Z from around FL200 to FL050 to FL100. Precipitation is expected to enter the TAF sites by 06Z Monday and continue through the rest of the period.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 02/13/2026 14:44 EXPIRES: 02/14/2026 23:59

On Saturday February 14 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 4 PM Monday to 4 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ300-308-313-337>339. Winter Storm Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Wednesday for CAZ318-320-322>331-333-334-336. Winter Storm Watch from Monday afternoon through Thursday morning for CAZ335.