textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A warm-up is expected to begin tomorrow and will continue through next week.
2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire risk across the region.
3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.
DISCUSSION
A warming trend is expected to begin tomorrow as the troughing pattern over California today transitions into a more zonal flow. Then a ridge will begin to build to the southeast of the region and move northwest through the coming week. This will lead to a return to triple digit temperatures in the Valley, the highest of which is expected to be on Wednesday the 24th. During this time, afternoon RH's will reduce back down to the 15-20% range in the Valley and into the single digits in the Desert. This combination of heat and dryness will lead to increased fire risk throughout the week. This ridge may also be just strong enough to pull some monsoonal moisture up to the Sierra Nevada, and may lead to scattered thunderstorms on the highest peaks by Wednesday and into Thursday.
Looking to late next week, another trough is likely to move down from the northwest and cross through California by Friday, causing a slight cooling trend, though temperatures in the Valley are likely to remain in the mid 90's, around normal for this time of year. The Climate Prediction Center has also noted this trend towards climatological normal in the next 1 to 2 weeks as much of the Valley is in the near normal category for temperatures for the 6 to 10 day outlook, and the 8 to 14 day outlook has the whole CWA in that same category.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ300.
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