textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk rest of the week into next week with a warmup over the weekend.

2. MinRHs continue to be below 25% in the upper portions of the Sierra Nevada with some areas below 12%.

3. There is a potential for a moderate heat risk mid through late week next week, but confidence is around 30 to 50 percent on Wednesday and 40 to 60 percent on Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Cooler daytime temperatures continued on Thursday as the trough currently sits over the California-Oregon-Nevada tristate area. However, this trough will slide out on Friday and a weak ridge takes it place over the weekend. Temperatures will warm up with a 40 to 60 percent chance of 90s for the weekend in the Valley.

However, another shortwave trough slides in on Monday and the models diverge as to how long it will take to clear the area. Temperatures will dip on Monday. Probabilities favor another strong warming trend Tuesday into the rest of next week as the ridge over the South slides west and strengthens. There is currently a 45 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees in the Valley. Wednesday has a 30 to 50 percent chance of a Moderate Heat Risk before increasing to 40 to 60 percent on Thursday. Next Thursday also has a 20 to 35 percent chance of triple digits to the Valley. Luckily, wind probabilities are low of 25 mph gusts with the shortwave on Monday. Rain chances remain below 5 percent for the next seven days. The CPC continue to favor a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average precipitation.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.