textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. MinRHs between 15-30 and >65% chance of 30 mph wind gusts lead to Elevated Fire Risk for the Valley and Foothills Saturday night through Sunday morning.

2. Wind Advisory for the San Joaquin Valley from 7 PM Saturday to 5 AM Sunday. Wind Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 11 AM Sunday for the Mojave SLopes and Desert. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM Sunday for San Luis Reservoir. Lake Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 11 PM Sunday for Lake Isabella.

3. Minor Heat Risk over the weekend into next week with a cooling trend this weekend. Although much cooler, high confidence that temperatures will be above normal.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures remained warm on Friday with a number of spots still reaching triple digits. The warm temperatures remain on Saturday as the ridge of high pressure continues to weaken and flatten as there is a 65 to 90 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees on Saturday for most of the Valley south of Merced. However, the big story is winds will begin picking up on Saturday thanks to a deep trough that will slide in from the Pacific Northwest. Winds will be strongest Saturday night as we have multiple wind products out including for the usual windy zones of San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Slopes.

Temperatures on Sunday and Monday will remain above average but cooler as there is a 80 to 90 percent chance of high temperatures below 90 degrees. However, the trough will also be drier as daytime minimum RH values lower which in combination of the winds brings an elevated fire risk Saturday into Sunday. Sadly, this trough does not look to bring any precipitation.

After the deep trough slides off early next week, there remains low certainty of a ridge building in. However, a 60 to 80 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees returns Tuesday through the rest of next week. Looking at the long term, the CPC outlooks continue to favor above average temperatures and hints at another chance of precipitation with a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected to continue for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 PM Saturday to 11 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory from 1 PM Saturday to 10 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ300. Wind Advisory from 7 PM Saturday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ301>307-309>312-315. Lake Wind Advisory from noon Saturday to 11 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ332.