textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warmer and Drier Thursday and Friday.
2. A low pressure system brings chances for precipitation this weekend.
3. Monday will dry out before another trough Tuesday into next Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
We are seeing the last of the clouds from the active system that passed through on Tuesday leaving the area and dissipating over the Sierra Nevada as a rex block slides east towards California. This rex block will help bring warmer and drier conditions through Friday. The winds also will decrease at this time.
However, the weekend brings in another trough that will slide in from Canada into the Great Basin. This trough will pull the cutoff low from the rex block and strengthen it. This setup will bring in a very northerly flow from Canada into our area along with some moisture. However, Valley locations will see a 15 to 25 percent chance of a tenth of an inch on Saturday and Sunday. The Sierra Nevada will see a 5 to 25 percent chance of 2 inches of snow through 5 pm Saturday. For the entire storm, there is a 15 to 25 percent chance of 6 inches of snow total through 5 AM Monday. Wind gusts also will strengthen with this system in the Sierra Crest and Mojave Slopes. There is a 50 to 70 percent chance of wind gusts of at least 55 mph in Mojave and Walker Pass Saturday into Sunday.
Conditions dry out and winds die down as the trough slides out on Monday before another trough slides in on Tuesday into Wednesday. The CPC outlooks continue to favor above average precipitation as it goes from a 40 to 50 percent chance in the 6-10 day outlook to a 33 to 40 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook. However, the outlook changes from being near normal in the 6-10 day outlook to a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in the San Joaquin Valley. Lingering clouds over parts of the Sierra Nevada brings through at least 12Z Thursday.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ338.
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