textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures drop today through Friday before a warmup over the weekend.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect for San Luis Reservoir until midnight Thursday.

3. Gusty winds are likely this evening through late tonight in localized regions of the Central Valley.

4. There is a potential for a moderate heat risk mid through late week next week, but confidence is less that 30%.

DISCUSSION

Strap in folks, because the temperature rollercoaster isn't done just yet. The trough that is bringing temperatures to about 5-10 degrees below normal will be moving out of California by Friday morning. High temperatures on Thursday have only a 20-30% chance of exceeding 85 degrees. The few wispy clouds that were present today will also be moving out of the area, so tomorrow is expected to be clear. Now that sounds like absolutely wonderful temperatures! Winds are also dying down, so the Lake Wind Advisory will be expiring at midnight.

As the trough leaves, it'll allow for some weak ridging to take its place. The ridge will bring temperatures back to normal with a gradual warmup starting on Friday and likely peaking on Sunday. There's a 60-70% chance that temperatures exceed the 92 degrees on Sunday. Keep in mind, the low 90s is normal for the Valley. After a few days in the low to mid 80s, the temperature difference will surely be noticed. However, after Sunday, models are in pretty good agreement that a shortwave trough coming in and lowering temperatures again, teasing Central California with yet another taste of fall. These same models are also in agreement that the trough will be rather short-lived, as by Tuesday, ridging is once again becoming the dominant feature. As of writing, there's a 10% chance that by Tuesday, the Central Valley could once again be flirting with the mid to upper 90s. The Climate Prediction Center has the Central Valley in 50-60% chance of above normal temperatures in their 6-10 day outlook. However, there's also a 40-50% chance of precipitation being above normal for the same time frame. As such, we will continue to monitor the situation.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ300.