textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Seasonally average temperatures return this weekend, then the next warmup is expected later next week.
2. Another monsoon push occurs early next week and increases probability of Sierra Nevada thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
A ridge of high pressure continues to sit over the Four Corners region along with a weak low off the California coast, leading to seasonal temperatures in Central California through the weekend. Small amounts of moisture moving through the region may also cause isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest tomorrow, with current chances at 10-20% during the warmest time of the day. These chances will increase as the ridge retrogrades back west and pulls up more monsoonal moisture into the region by Monday through Wednesday. The strongest chance for thunderstorms is this coming Tuesday, with lightning probabilities of 20-35% along the highest portions of the Sierra Nevada, increasing to the east on the leeward side of the range.
This will also coincide with a slight warm-up in temperatures in the region as a whole, with highs in the Valley rising a few degrees above normal to the low 100's, and the Mojave desert is expected to reach into the upper 100's. These temperatures are expected to be maintained into the next weekend as the ridge stays in place. Thunderstorm chances will also continue to be elevated, but values will decrease to 10-20% each afternoon after Tuesday.
Looking to the long term forecast, these above normal temperatures are likely to continue as the ridge seems to remain suck in place over the Four Corners. The Climate Prediction Center has the Central Valley in likely above normal temps for both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks, along with a slight risk (20-40%) for hazardous temperatures during the 8 to 14 day period of the 26th of July through the 1st of August.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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