textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A warming trend begins Wednesday.
2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk, including triple-digit heat, in the lower elevations Thursday until next weekend. Pockets of Major and Extreme Heat Risk as well.
3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.
DISCUSSION
The upper-level ridge currently centered just off the West Coast will build inland over the region starting Wednesday. High temperatures will climb well into the 90s in much of the lower elevation locations on Wednesday and will warm further on Thursday. In fact, chances for triple digit heat rise to 70-80 percent by Thursday across the Central Valley and 90 to near 100 percent in the Kern County desert. Similar temperatures continue into the weekend. Low minimum humidity (8-18 percent) will coincide with the hotter temperatures, especially by Thursday. Overnight lows will also rise a bit, but some overnight relief will be felt in most of the San Joaquin Valley as lows dip mainly into the 60s. However, the larger urban areas, such as Bakersfield and Fresno, the Kern County desert, and the thermal belt in the Sierra foothills and lower coastal ranges will remain in the lower to mid 70s each morning into the weekend.
Little relief in temperatures will occur even into early next week. The chances for a triple digit reading remain at 30-40 percent on Monday and next Tuesday, at least in the San Joaquin Valley. Otherwise, the chances are still 65-75 percent across the desert. Longer range guidance suggests a weakening in the ridge by the middle of next week, with some lowering of temperatures. However, chances (roughly 50 percent) for above average temeratures continue for at least the 6-10 day period, per CPC. For the 8-14 day period, CPC shows temperatures towards average.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Thursday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ300>321-332.
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