textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (with some sarcasm)! Mother Nature heard our cries for some blistering October heat, and as such, the ridge of high pressure will continue to dominate over the southwest. Further warming will commence today and through the weekend where highs are expected to be 10 to 15 degrees above normal in the San Joaquin Valley. The peak of the ridge is expected to be this weekend, particularly on Sunday, where chances for triple digits are 70-90% in the southern Valley and 50-70% in the northern Valley. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk will be maintained from Friday through the weekend, with Major Heat Risk possible in the bowl portions of the Valley at a 50-60% chance. This deemed a Heat Advisory to be issued spanning the weekend. No need to dirty your pans folks, just cook your food directly on the sidewalk outside! Just so you all are clear, sidewalk food tastes better than asphalt food.
A very weak change in the jet stream will cause the ridge to become zonal Monday, which will slightly lower highs in the Valley by a couple degrees. Triple digit chances do decrease from Monday onwards, though highs maintain a 80-90% chance to stay in the upper 90's through the middle of the next week. THis means some sweat will be retained. Looking to the long term forecast through day 10, temperatures may begin to decrease once again by late next week into next weekend. Model members agree on a cluster showing a possible trough moving through Northern California. This is currently reflected in temperature probabilities, as chances for upper 90s decrease to 55-75% chance Next Friday, dropping even further into next weekend. Even more sweat retained! Modeled highs at that time would still remain above normal, but in the lower 90's rather than the upper 90's. This connects the bridge to the Climate Prediction Center's outlook for 80-90% chance of above normal temperatures for the region for days 8 to 14.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 10 PM PDT Sunday for CAZ300>322.
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