textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions with a brief warm up will continue into Monday before a cooling trend sets up starting Tuesday.

2. A disturbance dropping south from Alaska is expected to result in the next favorable chances for precipitation across the region beginning Friday.

DISCUSSION

Pleasant conditions with sunny skies were observed across the region this Sunday. A storm currently pushing into the Pacific Northwest is expected to pass with near-zero chances of precipitation for Central California. Temperatures and winds are the exception. Expect an increase in winds and a cooling trend in temperatures. The Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 75 degrees is below 10 percent (outside the Mojave Desert) by Tuesday, with the PoE of reaching 70 degrees remaining above 70 percent through Friday.

By Monday Morning, cloud cover will see an increase during the storms passage. From 4 AM to 8 AM PDT, there is just under a 20 percent chance of surface visibility dropping below 3 miles (misty conditions), and less than 5 percent of visibility dropping below 1 mile. We will actively monitor the Highway 198 corridor from Visalia to Hanford for low visibility.

Looking toward the extended periods, ensemble model analysis shows strong consensus for a robust storm developing off Pacific Northwest Coast. Confidence is high that Central California will receive another round of precipitation,with the expected onset around Saturday Morning and heavier precipitation progressing throughout the day.

While confidence in receiving precipitation is high, there remains model variability regarding exact accumulation totals (spread ranges from zero to higher totals).We will continue to evaluate the potential for heavy (excessive rainfall) precipitation as the weekend approaches.

AVIATION

A 10-20% chance of MVFR visibility from 11Z through 16Z Monday near the KVIS to KHJO and KNLC corridor. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.