textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Dry and windy conditions create elevated fire risk this week, especially in the Mojave Desert.
2. Below normal temperatures continue across the area.
3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.
DISCUSSION
Low pressure troughing aloft continues to cause below normal temperatures and elevated winds throughout the region, with the strongest winds along the mountain ridges and into the Mojave Desert Slopes. Along with these winds, dry air will continue to lead to lowered afternoon RH's especially in the Mojave Desert, which will continue to see low teens into the single digits through the week. This will lead to an elevated fire risk, though because the winds won't be as strong as the winds seen over the last few days, red flag conditions are not likely to be met. Tomorrow afternoon, a strong shortwave rotating around the trough axis may provide a small amount of energy and moisture, enough to develop some isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest, mainly north of Madera County and at the highest elevations. Current chances for thunderstorms are 10-15% tomorrow afternoon.
This troughing is expected to stick around over the west coast through the week and may begin to weaken by this coming weekend as ridging from the south may raise 500mb heights over Southern and Central California. As the ridge strengthens, temperatures will become above normal once again, with the Valley in the upper 90's by next weekend. The Climate Prediction Center also has the CWA in leaning above normal temperatures for the 8 to 14 day outlook due to this possibility.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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