textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week with near seasonal to slightly above average temperatures.

2. Another low system brings strong winds and a risk for thunderstorms Thursday within the Sierra Nevada Mountains.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

DISCUSSION

Upper level disturbance continues to exit the region with weak ridging pushes over the area. Yet, while some warming will occur in the short-term, another disturbance will introduce another round of cooling later in the week. Latest ensemble upper-air analysis indicates the trajectory of the next disturbance as an inside-slider. Therefore, while precipitation probabilities will be minimal, the disturbance will introduce significant cooling and strong winds. Afterward, ridging will be seen over the West ahead of a more significant disturbance around the start of next week.

Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 80 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley will remain below 30 percent until Saturday. At which time, PoE of 80 degrees on Saturday will hit 80-90 percent south of Fresno County and 40-60 percent over Merced County. Therefore, while Merced will approach 80 degrees, Bakersfield will reach well into the 80s. The warming trend will continue into Sunday ahead of the next disturbance. Afterward, significant cooling will lower PoE of 80 degrees below 30 percent by the start of the work week and continue toward the middle of the week.

Onset of precipitation will start between late Sunday into early Monday. Probability of Measurable Precipitation of accumulating a tenth of a inch (0.10) will reach 20-30 percent by mid-day on Monday and increase to 30-40 percent by Monday Night. Based on the uncertainty of the ensemble upper-air analysis, will expect the precipitation probabilities to linger over Central California until early Wednesday. Due to the nature of a closed low circulation, the end of the forecast period will remain unsettled with possible precipitation extending through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.