textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Slight chances for showers continue over the region this afternoon, with the main focus in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

2. Wind Advisory continues for the Mojave Desert and SLopes through 5 AM Monday.

3. Slight chances for precipitation continue each day over the higher elevations of the region until Wednesday.

4. Warming trend to end this week.

DISCUSSION

The localized cutoff low pressure system from yesterday has progressed eastward into the Great Basin, though a shortwave trough extending south from the Pacific Northwest has built in in its wake. This trough will move southward slowly over the next 12 to 18 hours which will bring additional chances for precipitation to central California, especially for the Sierra Nevada. Through 5AM Monday, there remains a 40 to 50 percent probability for one-tenth of an inch or more of additional precipitation above four to five thousand feet. Snow levels are projected to be above six thousand feet, with only minor probabilities (less than 20 percent) for an additional two inches of snowfall. With the trough tracking from the north, stronger westerly wind gusts will prevail across the Mojave Desert as they flow cyclonically around the trough's axis. Through 11 PM tonight, there remains a 70 to 80 percent probability for maximum gusts to exceed 50 mph in these areas and, as such, a Wind Advisory remains in effect until 7 AM Monday.

Through early Thursday, multiple weak pieces of energy are anticipated to affect central California, bringing additional light precipitation, mainly to the Sierra Nevada. Towards the end of this week, a high pressure ridge will gradually build in, raising temperatures into the weekend. Both Friday and Saturday have a 70 to 80 percent probability for maximum temperatures to exceed 85 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley and the Kern Desert. In the latter part of next weekend, cluster analysis is indicating potential for another cut-off low pressure system to drop southward along the Pacific coastline. An additional system would extend our active period further, with continuing chances for precipitation into next week.

AVIATION

IFR to MVFR conditions over the Sierra Nevada through at least 00Z in showers and clouds. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours. Winds of 15 to 25 mph in the Mojave Slopes and Desert through 12Z Monday with gusts up to 55 mph.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for CAZ337>339.