textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Windy conditions Today as a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect through 11 PM Tonight for the Lake Isabella area.
2. Minor Heat Risk over the weekend and into the early part of this week. Although much cooler, high confidence that a warming trend in temperatures will take values to near normal by the middle of the week.
DISCUSSION
The latest disturbance and associated cold front continues its track through the Pacific Northwest and skirting Northern California this morning. For Central California, the disturbance influenced temperatures and winds. At this point, as the disturbance moves inland, winds have diminished and temperatures expected to bottom out this Sunday. While Mondays max temperatures will still fall some 3-5 degrees below normal, a weak warming trend in temperatures will occur during the week as a trough pattern lingers over the West Coast.
Taking a closer look, while the Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 90 degrees goes into the 70-90 percent range by the middle of the week, the PoE of reaching 95 degrees remains below 30 percent until next Saturday. Therefore, confidence is high that even with the warming trend, max temperatures will stay at near normal values for much of the period.
The lingering trough pattern will maintain dry conditions over the West as the westerly flow aloft keeps moisture well east of Central California. Therefore, with Probabilities of Measurable Precipitation remaining at very low percentages, will expect clear and dry through next weekend.
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. Strong NW wind gusts expected across Tehachapi Range through this evening.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
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