textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Red Flag Warning in Effect Friday 9 AM to Saturday 11 PM for the following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, and Lake Isabella.

2. Wind Advisory in Effect for Sierra Nevada Crest Friday 11 AM to Saturday 5 AM.

3. Dry and windy conditions create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in Eastern Kern and Southern Tulare Counties.

4. Cool down into the weekend will bring below normal temperatures.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Upper level disturbance pushing through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California as showers and thunderstorms roll across the area Thursday evening. While some clouds were pushing into the district this evening, the disturbance will result in cooling temperatures and strong winds. The district is expected to remain dry during the period as precipitation remains confined to the north of Central California.

Cooling trend is in store for Central California as the upper level pattern has a trough passing through on Friday with cooler air in its wake. Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 95 degrees remain below 20 percent across the San Joaquin Valley until next Wednesday. PoE of reaching 90 degrees does have a 60-80 percent chance over the Kern County portion of the San Joaquin Valley on Friday. These percentages diminish during the weekend with percentages returning to 40-60 percent next Monday. Warming trend expected during the latter portions of next week. Longer range analysis has the Climate Prediction Center placing Central California in the leaning toward the below normal category for temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and remaining near normal for the 8 to 14 day outlooks.

Precipitation-wise, will remain dry over a majority of the district with a 10 percent chance of lightning near Tioga Pass on Friday during the disturbances passage. Otherwise, Probability of Lightning remains below 10 percent for the period. Climate Prediction Center shows the Sierra Nevada remaining below normal in the 6 to 10 day period with conditions remain near normal in the 8 to 14 day period. The 8 to 14 day period also shows the monsoon surging north to northeast and well east of Central California.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface wind reaching G35kts across the Sierra Nevada Crest, Tehachapi Range and Mojave Desert have a 50-75 percent chance of occurring after 22Z Friday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning from 9 AM Friday to 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ298-299-595.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337- 339.

Lake Wind Advisory until 1 PM PDT Friday for CAZ300.

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ323-326-328-330-331.