textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated 06Z Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures drop slowly but will remain above average through much of this week.

2. Gusty winds will develop later today and again the middle of this week along the Mojave Desert slopes. A Wind Advisory is in effect for this area from 4 PM today until 5 AM Tuesday.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Mild temperatures once again occurred this morning in the larger cities, including Bakersfield and Fresno, that followed not so warm daytime highs yesterday compared to previous days. Similar high temperatures are in store today and much of this week with widespread highs in the 80's in the SJ Valley, or a 75-85 percent chance of reaching 85 degrees for today and Tuesday. An upper-level disturbance currently off the coast of Baja California will ramp up westerly winds over the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County by later this afternoon and continue overnight into early Tuesday morning. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for this period in this particular area. Highs in the Kern County desert also have a similar chance to reach 90 degrees through the end of this week. Slight lowering of temperatures take place on Wednesday and Thursday as the current offshore disturbance passes over the region. This will also bring another high probability for gusts at least 40 mph (at 80-90 percent, or similar to today's) for gusty winds over the Mojave Desert slopes.

Above average temperatures and dry conditions continue until this weekend. However, longer-term guidance suggests a pattern change early next week, including cooler temperatures and a slight chance of precipitation over northern portions of our Sierra Nevada. Latest CPC outlooks have shifted to a slight tilt in the odds for above average precipitation for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods while chances for above average temperatures continue.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting above G35KTS until 12Z Tuesday across the Mojave Desert Slopes.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will continue to result in lower minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with much lower 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and higher ERC (Energy Release Component) in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wildfire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338.