textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A slight chance for light precipitation remains in the Sierra Nevada until Friday evening as the storm system moves east.

2. Dry conditions and seasonal temperature normals prevail before another trough moves into the Pacific Northwest next week.

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (with some sarcasm)! Wowza, it got wettt outside the last couple of days, huh? Our cars and vegetation definitely needed it. Why pay for a carwash when Mother Nature has our back! As the storm moves eastward, lingering showers are possible in the Sierra Nevadas through this evening, with the 90th percentile being around an inch. Now, usually after rain events like this in late Fall and in Winter comes that gloomy ominous fog right? Since it is still October, thereth existeth too much sunlight and warmth for fog to develop, so visibility is expected to remain clear in the Valley.

The upper level trough itself does remain over our area until Saturday, keeping cool Valley temperatures below 75 today and tomorrow, before warming to the upper 70s Sunday and Monday. This is due to a very weak high pressure ridge briefly centering over our area, though models indicate another trough moving into the Pacific Northwest scaring away the ridge. Move along ridge, you scaredy cat! With this trough, some extra cooling is expected to occur, with temperatures across the Valley dropping into the mid to low 70s. Minimum temperatures expected to be between mid 40s to low 50s across the Valley and Desert. Perfect short sleeves weather!

Although uncertainty remains, models indicate that the trough next week strengthens and moves into our area around Halloween spooky time. A spooky trough over us on spooky day? Terrifying! There is currently a slight chance for precipitation to return around this time. We shalleth monitor this, and hope it does not spoil trick or treating plans. I want some candy!

AVIATION

IFR and mountain obscurations with showers over the Sierra Nevada and the Kern County mountains from 20Z Fri to 00Z Saturday. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.