textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend will continue this week with afternoon temperatures approaching 20 to 25 degrees above average today through Saturday.

2. Daily and monthly record high maximum temperatures will be challenged this week.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Records were broken on Wednesday as most locations got their first 90s of the year. However, Bakersfield shattered its hottest March temperature at 95 degrees. The above average temperatures and 90s continue on Thursday into Friday. Thursday brings a 15 to 25 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees for most of the Valley and Bakersfield has a 40 percent chance of hitting 95 again. Friday continues the trend but will be the warmest day with a 25 to 50 percent chance of highs in the Valley reaching 95 and Bakersfield having a 10 percent chance of the first triple digits of the year. In the Desert, there is a 5 to 10 percent chance of the first triple digits including for Boron.

However, temperatures and the probabilities for 90s decrease Saturday into next week as the strong ridge of high pressure weakens as it continues to move east to over the Four Corners. Temperatures also drop over the weekend as the zonal over the area becomes zonal and even a shortwave trough has the potential to slide across the region. Monday and Tuesday see a rebound with a 45 to 70 percent chance of high temps of at least 90 degrees before a 35 to 45 percent chance next Wednesday. The dry and warm pattern continues as the CPC continues to have the southwest in likely above normal temperatures for the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Warming air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will lead to a decrease in minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with a sharp decrease in 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and an increase in ERC in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wild fire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.