textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
The hot and dry conditions will continue until Monday as the ridge over Utah stays in place. With it, the San Joaquin Valley will continue to see hot temperatures, with Sunday afternoon expected to be the peak of the heat. The Probability of Exceedance (PoE) for 105 degrees is currently between 60-75% for much of the SJV. On the more extreme end of maximum temperatures, there is a 10% PoE for 109 for the northern half of the San Joaquin Valley. Kern County, Bakersfield included, will be well above 105 degrees. The PoE for 110 in Bakersfield is 50-60%. The more extreme models are hinting at a 10% probability of exceeding 111 degrees on Sunday. As for the Mojave desert...well...it's hot out there. There's a 70% chance of reaching 110 degrees tomorrow in Ridgecrest. Good news! After Sunday that PoE for 110 degrees will begin to drop off for the Mojave Desert, as there is a 10% chance on Monday and drops off completely on Tuesday. There's also a chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada crest everyday until at least Saturday. These chances will range between 10-20%.
Tuesday is looking to be the date of most change during this upcoming week. The ridge over Utah begins to shift eastward thanks to an upper-level trough beginning to push in through the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. While temperatures will still be warm, they are expected to drop to the low 100s for the San Joaquin Valley. By Thursday, we will see climatological normal temperatures. Wahoo! This is again thanks to the upper-level trough, as by Thursday it will be digging into Northern California.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours with light northwest winds during the day and variable winds overnight. Convection will have a 20-30 percent chance from 20Z Saturday until 04Z Sunday across the Sierra Nevada Crest.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM PDT Monday for CAZ300>317-319- 321-332-334>339.
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