textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Increasing chances of thunderstorms through the weekend over the Sierra Nevada before decreasing slightly on Monday.
2. Cooling pattern begins Sunday as trough slides in.
3. Warming trend on Wednesday into next weekend.
DISCUSSION
A shortwave ridge will continue to be over the area on Saturday as temperatures continue to be above average and warm. There is a 20 to 55 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees in the Valley for Saturday.
However, a trough slides down late Saturday into Sunday morning and becomes a cutoff low. This cutoff low will slowly make its way east through Tuesday keeping things unstable but also cooler. There is a 10 to 35 percent chance of highs of at least 75 degrees on Monday and Tuesday thanks to the trough. In the Sierra Nevada, there is a 10 to 25 percent chance of thunderstorms on Sunday and Monday. Also, snow levels will be at 7,500 to 8,000 feet with this low, however, there is a 20 to 40 percent chance of 4 inches or more above 8,000 feet. In the Valley, there is a 10 to 30 percent chance of a tenth of an inch for both Sunday and Monday leading into Tuesday afternoon. Winds will pick up as there is a 60 to 90 percent chance of 40 mph gusts for the Sierra Crest on Sunday and the Mojave Slopes and Desert for Sunday through Tuesday.
A ridge slides in Wednesday bringing temperatures up and ensembles have it strengthening into next weekend. There is a 55 to 70 percent chance on Thursday, a 75 to 90 percent chance on Friday and 65 to 75 percent chance next Saturday for highs of at least 90 degrees. The CPC have a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average precipitation in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. However, there also is a 70 to 80 percent chance in the 6-10 day and a 60 to 70 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlooks for above average temperatures.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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