textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Strong wind gusts are expected through Sunday in the Tehachapi Mountains and Mojave Slopes as low pressure moves through. Wind Advisory in effect for Kern County.

2. An fire risk concern exists in eastern Kern and eastern Tulare counties Friday through Sunday.

3. A warming trend is expected this weekend and into next week.

DISCUSSION

A dry system has been moving through the region today, producing strong winds throughout the area, especially along the Mojave Slopes. These winds are expected to continue through tomorrow as the system moves to the east into Arizona. Strong gusts of 50 mph or higher remain possible in the Mojave Slopes and Tehachapi Mountains through Thursday morning; a Wind Advisory remains in effect for those areas until 10AM. Temperatures are also expected to cool down into tomorrow as the lee side of the trough moves over the region.

As this trough moves east, a strong shortwave coming in from the west side of said trough is expected to pull southwest and cause a portion to become a cut-off over Southern California by Friday night. This will lead to the flow to come in from the northeast of the region, leading to strong winds from the lee side of the Sierra Nevada and parallel to the Tehachapi Mountains. For the Sierras, this is expected to be a weak Mono wind event, as the chances for 60 mph wind gusts over the mountains are 40-50% and the chances for 70 mph gusts are 20-30%. These winds will also be downsloping into the Valley, leading to drying afternoon relative humidities. This will also be the case for the Mojave Slopes, which does raise some fire weather concerns, though at this point in the season, fuels are still mainly considered "live" and haven't dried out significantly enough to pose a significant fire risk.

Temperatures are also expected to warm during this time as the downsloping winds will lead to warmer air descending into the Valley through the weekend. The warming trend is also expected to continue into next week as a ridge builds into the Southwest. The CPC has indicated this pattern may continue into the middle of March as above normal temperatures and below normal precipitation persist into Day 14.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing with the exception of misty MVFR conditions possible between 12-17Z. Surface wind gusts to 35kts across the higher terrain of the Central California Interior through 18Z Today.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for CAZ333-334-338.