textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Colder air remains in the region this morning. Freeze Warning continues until 9 AM for the San Joaquin Valley, with Cold Air Advisory for the Sierra Nevada and Foothills through 10 AM this morning.

2. A warmer system arrives late Monday into Tuesday, with continued precipitation for the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday. Snow levels rising above 8,000 feet will bring risk for rain on snow runoff below these levels.

DISCUSSION

Cold air remains over the region, and expect more freezing temperatures in the San Joaquin Valley this morning along with lows reaching near zero or just below in the highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada. Some patchy fog will develop in the San Joaquin Valley as temperatures are currently near the dewpoint while surface winds are light. However, the probability of visibility reaching one quarter mile or lower is generally low, except for a period of around 30-40 percent towards sunrise and shortly after. The most likely locations would be near Visalia, Hanford, and Corcoran, as well as nearby rural areas. As of now, visibility is mainly ten miles or better, unlike what was observed at this time of night during earlier this month, or prior to the recent storm.

Temperatures will moderate beginning Sunday and will continue to rise back to more seasonal values as we progress through the next several days. Precipitation chances return Monday night, but temperatures will be considerably warmer with milder overnight lows than they were the last several days.

The next system will bring precipitation chances along with much higher snow levels compared to the recent storm. The latest runs of the ensemble guidance have shown considerably lower precipitation amounts for the Monday night- Wednesday night time frame. The worst case scenario is now suggesting a total of 2-3 inches in the Sierra Nevada up to 8,000-9,000 feet for this period, with snow above these elevations. The heaviest amounts look to occur Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. The most likely scenario is precipitation totals reach one to two inches in the Sierra Nevada from Fresno County northward, with the heaviest amounts towards Yosemite NP. Forecast snow amounts are much lower, with only a few inches to a foot in the highest elevations. Models are now showing weak ridging over Central CA with the southwest flow retreating to northern California.

Precipitation chances trend lower by the end of next week, and the latest 8-14 day CPC outlooks favor above average temperatures and below average precipitation.

AVIATION

VFR conditions across central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Saturday February 21 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Kern County. Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Freeze Warning until 9 AM PST this morning for CAZ301>307- 309>312-314>316. Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for CAZ318- 320-322>331.