textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Lake Wind Advisory in effect through Thursday for West Side Coastal Mountains north of 198 and San Luis Reservoir.
2. Dry and breezy conditions create elevated fire risk this week, especially in the Mojave Desert.
3. Near-normal temperatures across the area.
4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.
DISCUSSION
The trough that is over California continues to make temperatures pleasant through the end of the workweek. As it moves, there will be an increase of winds near the San Luis Reservoir through Thursday morning. As of last check, gusts were reaching 24MPH, thus prompting the Lake Wind Advisory to remain in place. It will expire on Thursday at 11PM. At San Luis Reservoir, gusts will exceed 30MPH today, but the probability of them exceeding 35MPH is 45%. Areas like the Mojave Desert Slopes will have gusts exceeding 40MPH in the early evening hours. However, this does not meet advisory criteria, but we will continue to monitor the winds.
By Saturday, the trough is weaken enough that temperatures will begin to approach more climatological normal. A ridge is expected to build around the Four Corners region, which in turn will bring our area to warmer temperatures. Looking at the CPC, their 6-10 day has the Central Valley leaning 33-50% above normal temperatures with near normal precipitation. It is a similar story for their 8-14 day outlook, so expect temperatures to return to the warm side.
As we go into this holiday weekend and warm temperatures after, it is important to remember that while the air temperature may be warm, water temperature will be much colder. Please practice cold water safety for any running lake, stream, or river. Even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in cold water. Listen to all local law enforcement and obey posted signs for any water way that may be closed.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for CAZ300.
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