textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures below seasonal averages will continue into next week before a warming trend returns temepratures to averages midweek.

2. Precipitation chances increase into the weekend, with the best chances on Sunday. The greatest probabilities will also be in the desert and southern mountain areas.

DISCUSSION

The latest disturbance and associated cold front continues its track through Northern California this evening. For Central California, the disturbance will influence temperatures and winds over the next few days. While precipitation chances remain very limited, the area will continue to see below normal temperatures. A drop of 5 to 10 degrees from seasonal normal values. In addition, breezy afternoon and early evening winds will reach speeds of 10-20 mph each night, otherwise light diurnal winds expected. These conditions will be observed across Central California through at least the middle of next week.

Taking a closer look, the Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 90 degrees has not chanced very much as still sits below 50 percent until Thursday of next week, with the PoE of 95 degrees remaining just below 30 percent. While temperatures in the 90s will return to the San Joaquin Valley, temperatures well above seasonal norms are highly unlikely over the next seven days.

Additionally, Hurricane Marie, while moving westward, will still impact Central California. Higher Integrated Water Vapor Transport values are expected to surge toward Southern California and extend into parts of Central California, with the best chances for moisture over the Mojave Desert, as well as portions of Kern County Mountains. The Probability of Measurable Precipitation (PoP) for 0.10 inches continue to drop and is now at 10-20 percent for desert locations. The PoP for 0.25 inches now stands at less than 15 percent for the same time frame and location. Southern California remains the most favored area for measurable precipitation, with moisture shifting away from Central California on Monday as the area dries out.

AVIATION

General VFR conditions next 24 hours with local MVFR ceilings Friday morning. 40% chance of MVFR ceilings at KMCE and KBFL between 11Z-19Z Friday, lesser chances at KFAT and KVIS.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.