textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind Advisories and a Lake Wind Advisory in effect through Monday for the Kern River Valley, Indian Wells Valley, and Mojave Desert. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Desert Slopes in effect through Tuesday morning.

2. 15 to 35 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Monday, decreasing to 10 to 15 percent on Tuesday. 5 to 15% chance across the Valley and into the foothills during this period.

3. Cooler, unsettled weather until Tuesday with snow above 7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada.

4. Gusty winds along the Sierra Crest and eastern Tulare and Kern Counties.

5. Warming trend on Wednesday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Some very late afternoon and evening thunderstorms popped up over the Sierra Nevada on Sunday as a cutoff low continued its southward trek. This cutoff low moves onshore on Monday bringing cooler temperatures and a continuation of the potential for thunderstorms for the Sierra Nevada. There is a 15 to 35 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada Monday. There remains a 30 to 60 percent chance of 4 inches of snow or more above 8,000 feet as the bulk of the moisture moves in on Monday. In the Valley, however, there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain on Monday and Tuesday. Strong winds also remain a concern as there are wind advisories in effect through Monday night for the Kern River Valley and most of the Mojave Desert and through Tuesday morning for the Mojave Slopes.

The low gradually moves more east on Tuesday with thunderstorm probabilities dropping to 10 to 15 percent over the Sierra Nevada. The winds also will decrease on Tuesday but will remain gusty for the Mojave. Wednesday brings the beginning of a warm and dry trend as a ridge slides in and will strengthen into the weekend. Latest probabilities show a 50 to 65 percent chance of the first triple digits of the year on Sunday and a 75 to 95 percent chance of triple digits next Monday and Tuesday. Because of this, the CPC outlooks strongly favor above average temperatures at 70 to 90 percent.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California, except in and near thunderstorms, where MVFR and IFR conditions can be expected.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ308-313. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ332. Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337-339.