textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir Thursday morning into evening. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella Friday morning through Saturday morning.

2. Above average temperatures continue to climb through Thursday before a major cooling trend into the weekend and next week.

3. Winter Storm Warning in effect from 10 AM Friday through 4 AM next Tuesday with up to 18 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet in total.

4. Multiple storm systems on Friday night through Saturday and Sunday night through Tuesday bring much needed rain to the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this morning has the leading edge of the clouds of the first weekend storm off the coast as it moves closer. Today, we are looking at some increased clouds but will remain warm with a 20 to 50 percent chance of 80s for most of the Valley with Bakersfield at a 90 percent chance. However, winds slowly pick up as we have a Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir through this afternoon. The storm door opens on Friday as the first trough slides in. High temperatures will drop significantly as most of the Valley will be at 50 percent or less chance of highs of 70 degrees. The storm seems to be moving faster as we are now seeing a 40 to 60 percent chance of an inch of snow above 7,000 feet that we have moved the start of the Winter Storm Warning to 10 AM from 4 PM. Latest forecasts have this storm to be more wetter as we are now seeing a 40 to 50 percent chance of 12 inches or more of snow above 7,000 feet. In the Valley, we are expecting a 35 to 65 percent chance of half an inch of rain Friday into Saturday with the foothills at a 25 to 65 percent chance of an inch and a half or more. Winds also pick up with this storm especially along the Sierra crest but especially in Eastern Kern County. A Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella Friday morning through Saturday morning due to gusts up to 55 mph being expected.

There will be a brief reprieve after the first trough slides out as there is some ridging before the second trough moves in. This second trough has weakened in moisture from previous forecasts through Tuesday morning. There is a 20 to 45 percent chance of an additional inch of rain in the foothills and a 25 to 45 percent chance of half an inch in the Valley. Snow levels are expected to remain around 6,000 to 7,000 with this second storm as there is a 20 to 60 percent chance of an additional 6 inches of snow or more Sunday night through early Tuesday morning.

But wait there is more. We are looking at a third trough moving in Wednesday into next Thursday. Currently, the Day 7 snow forecasts have a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 inches or more of snow. However, the forecasts this far out show snow levels down to 5,000 feet. In the foothills, we are looking at a 40 to 50 percent chance of another inch of rain from Wednesday into Thursday afternoon. The Valley is expecting a 30 to 45 percent chance of another half an inch of rain with this third system.

The news keeps getting better in the long term CPC outlooks. The precipitation outlooks have a 50 to 70 percent chance of above average in the 6-10 day outlook and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average in the 8-14 day outlook. Temperatures on the overhand go from a 40 to 50 percent chance of below average in the 6-10 day outlook to near normal to a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and San Joaquin Valley, VFR conditions will generally prevail until 12Z. After 12Z, areas of MVFR to IFR begin to develop due to showers in the Sierra Nevada and Valley and also mist in portions of the San Joaquin Valley. VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours in the desert.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Thursday, November 12, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for CAZ300. Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM Friday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ323-325>330. Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ332.