textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will remain at or below season averages through next week.

2. Breezy conditions over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through next week.

DISCUSSION

A trough off the coast of California will continue to bring temperatures below normal through this weekend, though a slight warm-up is expected as that trough broadens out during that time period. Highs in the Valley are likely to be in the low to mid 90's tomorrow, than warming into the upper 90's by Sunday. These temperatures are expected to remain consistent through the week as the pattern remains stable. The Mojave Desert is expected to see a similar pattern this week, as tomorrow will have highs in the upper 90's before becoming triple digits by Sunday. As for Heat Risk this week, the Valley will mainly see a Minor risk, while the Desert increases to a Moderate Risk through the week.

Along with this cooldown, this trough will also cause winds breezier than usual through the week, especially for wind-prone areas like the Mojave Desert Slopes, the San Luis Reservoir and Lake Isabella. Though so far probabilities for any wind products needing to be issued for those areas are low as of now. This trough will also help keep minimum RH's from getting very dry as they have been in previous weeks, mainly due to the reduced temperatures. So while the wind is somewhat present, other factors that may increase fire danger are not, such as low RH's and high temperatures.

Looking to the long term forecast, above normal temperatures may return by the week after next as a ridge could begin to influence Central and Southern California while being centered over Northern Texas and the Oklahoma Panhandle. This is also shown in the 8 to 14 day outlook issued by the Climate Prediction Center where our region is under leaning above normal for that time period.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.