textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A Winter Weather Advisory for the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

2. An active pattern continues with storm systems moving through the region Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday through Friday. Each system will bring additional rain and mountain snow along with increased winds.

3. Moderate chances for patchy dense fog exist Sunday morning in the central San Joaquin Valley.

4. Temperatures rise to near season averages this weekend before falling below average for much of next week.

DISCUSSION

Today was a mainly dry and calm day with slightly below average temperatures. Expect a seasonably mild day for Sunday, although there is a chance (30-40 percent towards Visalia and Hanford) we could see some patches of dense fog in the San Joaquin Valley during the morning hours. Weak ridging remains in place with high clouds passing over Central CA.

The next low pressure system arrives late Sunday evening towards our northern portions and early Monday morning elsewhere in our forecast area. This will bring light to moderate precipitation, with most of the precipitation occurring on Monday during the daytime. The best chance for a half inch of rain will be towards Merced County (65 percent at Merced); otherwise, most valley locations can expect up to a quarter of an inch. Snow will fall at or above 6,000 feet, and the best chances for at least six inches of snow will be from Yosemite NP to Sequoia NP. Some increase in winds will take place, although the best opportunity will be Monday night towards the Mojave Desert slopes where there is a 50-60 percent chance for gusts to reach or exceed 40 mph.

For the middle of next week, a stronger system with abundant moisture will arrive Wednesday and last through at least Thursday night. Some slight chances of lingering precipitation are in store for Friday, mainly over the Sierra Nevada. As of now, there is a good chance for a foot of snow above 6,000 feet, including from Yosemite NP to Tulare County, in a 24 hour period ending on Thursday morning and again Friday morning. In addition, precipitation amounts have a high probability (75-85 percent chance) to reach over an inch in much of the lower Sierra Nevada and foothills in a 24 hour period ending Thursday afternoon. There is a similar chance for valley locations to receive at least a half inch for this period. We are monitoring for the potential for gusty winds to impact a more widespread area with this next system, including the higher terrain adjacent to the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, as well as the Sierra Nevada crest and Mojave Desert slopes. At this time, there is a low to moderate chance for gusts at least 45 mph in these areas, and there is greater uncertainty regarding gusty winds for this period for now.

For next weekend, we are looking at a break in the active pattern, as precipitation is unlikely to occur, at least for next Saturday. Stay tuned, as latest CPC outlooks are still showing at least a slight tilt in the odds for above average precipitation to continue for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

Areas of misty MVFR conditions in the San Joaquin Valley between 7- 18Z will affect the TAF sites. However, a 50-60% chance for IFR conditions in mist exists at KVIS between 14-18Z, with a 30-40% chance for LIFR or lower conditions in dense fog and low ceilings. Elsewhere, VFR conditions prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Sunday, November 15, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ323- 325>330.