textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir from 5PM this afternoon until 2AM Friday morning.

2. Temperatures to remain below normal through the next week.

DISCUSSION

The trough that led to the thunderstorm activity this afternoon will remain offshore through the next week or so, but is as of now not forecasted to produce similar activity through that time period. Chances for thunderstorms will still be present, but will reduce significantly from tomorrow to 5 to 10% on most days and approaching 15% on both Friday and Sunday. So while the risk for thunderstorms will decrease, the cooler than normal temperatures are expected to stick around through this week. The cooling trend will continue through tomorrow, resulting in much of the Valley reaching the low 90's south of Fresno and the upper 80's north of Fresno. The Mojave Desert is also expected to see highs below triple digits.

As the trough begins to broaden over the weekend, temperatures will slowly increase, though are expected to remain in the 90's in the Valley. However, the Desert is expected to see the return of triple digits by Sunday into Monday. From the weekend onwards, temperatures are expected to remain steadily near normal for this time of year. Looking to the long term forecast, the Climate Prediction Center has increased the likelihood for above normal temperatures in Central California to likely above at a 50-60% probability.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 2 AM PDT Friday for CAZ300.