textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Major Heat Risk for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Slopes and Desert with an Extreme Heat Warning in effect through Monday.
2. Prolonged heat is expected to affect the SJ valley and adjacent foothills with a Heat Advisory in effect through Monday.
3. Drier conditions will develop with the warming temperatures, leading to increased fire weather concerns for most of the week.
DISCUSSION
The ridge of high pressure continues to reign over much of the western U.S. However, this ridge is being flattened slightly thanks to a trough sliding through Canada. However, the impacts from this flattening will only be a slight cooldown in temperatures if any in the Valley and Desert from Monday through Wednesday. But for today, Major Heat Risk for the Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Slopes and Desert, with an Extreme Heat Warning remaining in effect through Monday thanks to a 50 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 110 in the desert today. In the Valley and foothills, a Heat Advisory will also be in effect through Monday with a 25 to 60 percent chance of highs of 105 today which goes up to 50 to 75 percent on Monday.
The ridge will strengthen back up late in the week and bring a rebound in temperatures with the Valley seeing a 45 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 105 by Saturday. The desert and slopes will remain at a 25 percent chance or less of highs of at least 110 except for the Indian Wells Valley which will hover at 20 to 45 percent. The CPC continues to favor above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook.
Drier conditions will continue to prevail with this prolonged heat leading to continued fire weather concerns. However, winds will generally be light and diurnal for most locations with the gusts in the afternoon along the Mojave Slopes and the Sierra Crest.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Extreme Heat Warning until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337>339. Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ301>317-319-321- 332-334>336.
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