textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A relatively warm day is in store for Monday, but conditions remain pleasant.

2. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a moderate chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes.

3. Another warming trend is expected by later this week with well above average temperatures by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Expect mainly clear skies and calm conditions tonight into Monday. Highs will reach several degrees above seasonal averages again on Monday, though highs slightly lower than today with highs in the upper 70's at the warmest valley and desert locations. The chance for an 80 degree or higher reading on Monday is at 40-50 percent, mainly in the San Joaquin Valley.

More noticeable cooling takes place Tuesday with a slight increase in highs for Wednesday, although highs in the Central Valley will be in the lower to mid 70's. Winds will increase in some of the typical prone areas on Tuesday, such as the Mojave Desert slopes in eastern Kern County, with the chances of a 40 mph gust at 70-80 percent Tuesday afternoon and evening. Highs in the desert will be in the upper 70's to lower 80's through Wednesday.

High pressure ridging dominates much of the Western U.S. beginning Thursday while high temperatures begin to noticeably warm. For Friday into the weekend, there remains a low to moderate chance of highs reaching at least 90 degrees in the Kern County desert which would reach near record highs. The best chances will be over next weekend. However, it is more likely that highs will reach the mid-80's in these areas. Elsewhere, many valley locations will see highs into the lower 80's once again. While confidence is low at this time, it has been increasing with each model run. There is little or no chance of precipitation in the next seven days.

Little change in the pattern occurs next week, as latest CPC outlooks continue to show above average temperatures and below average precipitation for both the 6-10 and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.