textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated aviation and air quality sections.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Below normal temperatures continue through Sunday with localized rain and snow showers (above 8,000 feet) across the area through early Sunday afternoon.

2. Substantial precipitation will begin falling late tonight through mid-day Sunday.

3. A Winter Weather Advisory will continue for the higher elevations along the Sierra Nevada mountains with a 15-20% chance of greater than 4 inches of snowfall above 7,000 feet, and a 50-70% chance of greater than 12However inches of snowfall above 9,000 feet through 7am PST tomorrow.

DISCUSSION

Happy Halloween to all those who celebrate! And if youre not someone who celebrates Halloween, happy Saturday! Mother nature has been playing tricks on those out getting their candy, particularly around Merced and Oakhurst. 6 hour observations in Oakhurst range from 0.13 to 0.27 of rain. Merced observations range from 0.01-0.09 of rain. Also, rumbles of thunder were heard and quite a few flashes of lightning.

Further south, the Foothills of Kern and Tulare counties are seeing 0.01-0.20 of rain so far. More rain is expected over night and into mid-day Sunday. The current probabilities for the San Joaquin Valley to see 0.5 in 24 hours range from 25-90%. I know, I know, thats a really big range. The areas that have the LOWEST probability of seeing that amount are Merced, Chowchilla, Lemoore/Hanford, Lost Hills with a 24%, 32%, 35% and 35% chance of seeing 0.5 of rain by Sunday at 4pm respectively. Moving further east, that probability increases dramatically. Fresno, Visalia, Bakersfield and Porterville have among the highest chances in the Valley to see that 0.5 or more by Sunday evening. The probabilities are 58%, 77%, 72% and 93% respectively.

We can also see on radar (and a few cameras) that the Sierra Nevada is getting snow! This is for elevations above 7,500 feet, and its accumulating at the highest peaks. Rest assured, as the storms continue to move in, the snow will become more widespread and amounts will be calculated. It might not be enough to go skiing just yet, but the current accumulation amounts are slated to be 4 to 8 inches from 7,500 to 9,500 feet. Elevations above 9500 feet could see up to 18 inches of accumulated snow.

As lovely as the wet Sunday will be, the system will move out by 10 pm tomorrow (psst, thatll be in PST. Haha, see what I did there?) and ridging will build in almost immediately after that. The ridge is also expected to move out rather quickly, as by Tuesday, another low will be skirting by in NorCal. Despite the ridge moving quickly, there is potential for fog thanks to the rainfall this weekend. It is still a bit too early for how thick the fog could be, but we are keeping a very, very close eye on it. With the next trough, theres no current expectations of precipitation with this trough as the center of the low will go through the Bay Area.

Finally, the CPC 6-10 day outlook for temperatures have almost all of the US in above normal temperatures, with all of California in the 60-70% probability of above normal temperatures. The 8-14 day temperature outlook has the Central Valley in a 50-60% chance of above normal temperature. For precipitation, the 6-10 day outlook has near normal precipitation for the Central Valley, then a 33-40% chance of above normal precipitation on the 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

Periods of MVFR conditions will continue across the lower elevations with IFR conditions in the Sierra Nevada until 18Z Sun. VFR conditions return for the local area after 03Z Mon. 20% chance for IFR conditions at KVIS between 12Z-18Z Mon.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 10/31/2026 12:42 EXPIRES: 11/01/2026 23:59

On Sunday November 1 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: Burning Discouraged in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area), and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for CAZ323- 326>328-330.