textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low relative humidities in the lower elevations of Central California brings at least a moderate risk of Fire Danger through this weekend.

2. Warming trend continues until Saturday, with a lowering trend Sunday into next week.

3. Practice safety around area lakes, rivers, and streams as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Today's highs will be a bit warmer than yesterday's thanks to the ridge of high pressure along the West Coast. The ridge will gradually weaken during the upcoming holiday weekend, although a minor lowering trend in temperatures will occur as daytime highs are still above average through the Memorial Day weekend. The warmest locations in both the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert reach into the 90s, although today's and Friday's highs will be in the mid to upper 90s instead of the lower 90s by the end of the holiday weekend. Today's chance for at least a 95 degree temperature reading is at 60-70 percent across the San Joaquin Valley. Expect at least a moderate chance again for Friday and Saturday. By Sunday, chances for highs this warm will decrease significantly.

An upper-level trough approaches from the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday and brings a slight (15-20 percent) chance for light precipitation over the Sierra Nevada along with seasonal temperatures across the forecast area. Winds will increase over the typical prone areas, such as the Sierra Nevada crest and the Mojave Desert slopes. For now, the chance of a 40 mph gust in these areas is at 30-40 percent on Tuesday afternoon and evening. A warming trend soon follows by late next week, as high pressure returns to the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Low relative humidity values will continue throughout the San Joaquin Valley, the West Side Hills of the Coastal Range, the lower Sierra Nevada Foothills, Kern County mountains and the desert through the weekend. Fast moving and developing grass and brush fires will be the main concern regarding available fuels. Winds will be light, but with the warming trend and lowering humidity there will be poor to moderate overnight humidity recovery.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.