textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Below average temperatures will continue through the weekend. Warming trend returns temperatures to about average by the middle of next week.
2. Rainfalls return to the forecast this weekend in the Mojave Desert and Sierra Nevadas of Kern and Tulare County.
DISCUSSION
Latest satellite imagery shows a band of broken to overcast clouds crossing California west to east, thanks to a disturbance north of our area. Combined with prevailing troughing, temperatures are expected to remain below average through the rest of this week, ranging from low-to-mid 80s in the San Joaqin Valley to low-to-mid 90s in the Mojave Desert. Winds will also remain light through sunset, with gusts in typically windy areas picking up afterwards.
According to the latest National Blend of Models (NBM) run at 13 UTC, probability of valley temperatures 90 degrees and above remain low (30% and lower) through Tuesday, when probability sharply rises to 60-80%. Fortunately, triple digit afternoon heat outside the lower Mojave Desert (below 2,000 feet) remains highly unlikely for the next 10 days. Only next Thursday shows a low (10-20%) probability across the San Joaquin Valley and high desert.
On the precipitation side of the forecast, a tropical moisture push from Hurricane Marie remains on track to bring rain chances to the Mojave Desert on Sunday. NBM currently shows precipitation is most likely (50-70% probability) in Kern County east of Highway 14, with a slight chance (10-20%) extending just east of Bakersfield and Porterville. Currently rainfall estimates vary widely, but include a 20-25% probability of half an inch or more rain in southeast Kern County, including Edwards and Boron.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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