textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Seasonally average temperatures return this weekend, then the next warmup is expected later next week.
2. Another monsoon push occurs early next week and increases probability of Sierra Nevada thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
Today's highs rose to near the century mark in much of the San Joaquin Valley. A dry southwest flow aloft is occurring at this time with the ridge of high pressure over the interior Western U.S. Breezy conditions will continue through this evening and also redevelop Saturday afternoon and evening in the typical prone areas, such as the Mojave Desert slopes where a moderate to high probability of gusts of at least 30 mph exist. Highs won't be quite as warm Saturday, as the probability of triple digit heat lowers to 20 to 30 percent in the SJ Valley, except for the southern and western sides of the Valley are at 65-75 percent. However, the chances rise back to 60-70 percent across much of the Valley from Fresno County southward as the ridge of high pressure retrogrades. There is also a slight chance of thunderstorms in the high Sierra Nevada, mainly towards Mt. Whitney, on Sunday.
The ridge will continue to retrograde into early next week, and chances (about 10-20 percent) for Sierra Nevada thunderstorms return to much of the higher elevations on Monday afternoon and evening. In addition, flow turns more south/southeasterly by this time. Chances for mountain thunderstorms continue for both Tuesday and Wednesday with an increase in probabilities (or about 20-30 percent). We will see gradually lowering chances Thursday until next weekend, but triple digit heat, or mainly around 100-105 degrees, continues in most locations of the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert. Overall, we're anticipating typical summertime weather.
The odds remain tilted towards above average temperatures (mainly 50-60 percent probability) for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day ranges, per CPC, while precipitation is near average.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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