textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend will continue through next week with afternoon temperatures approaching 10 degrees above average during the weekend and even warmer next week.

2. Daily and monthly record high maximum temperatures will be challenged next week.

3. Stronger wind gusts expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this weekend. A Wind Advisory has been issued for this area from this morning through early Sunday morning.

DISCUSSION

A major warming trend is expected through this weekend into next week thanks to the ridge of high pressure moving more onshore and strengthening. Strong winds continue in the Mojave Slopes through Sunday morning due to the ridge moving onshore leading to a Wind Advisory being in effect. The latest NBM probabilities have backed off on the chances of highs getting into the 90s for Sunday. Monday has a 15 to 25 percent chance of highs hitting 90 degrees.

However, the rest of the week has a 80 percent chance and higher of highs being in the 90s even with the ridge weakening near the end of next week and moving east. New daily high temperature records are likely across the San Joaquin Valley, with some areas likely to break all-time monthly records for March. Friday and next Saturday both have a 10 to 20 percent chance of very early triple digits in the Valley. In the desert area of Kern County, there is a 70 to 95 percent chance of highs of at least 95 from Wednesday into the weekend. However, triple digit chances in the desert are near zero until becoming a 15 to 30 percent chance on Friday and Saturday. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day CPC Outlooks continue to heavily favor above average temperatures and very dry conditions for the San Joaquin Valley.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Warming air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will lead to a decrease in minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with a sharp decrease in 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and an increase in ERC in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wildland fire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ338.