textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler temperatures this weekend before a warmup to begin next week.

2. Hot and dry conditions next week will create increased fire risk across the region.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery is showing a well defined circulation pattern off of the California Coast this morning. This circulation is associated with a weak disturbance moving through California and providing us with a significant cool-down. In turn, the cool maritime air is allowing for gusty winds the mountain passes as Pacheco Pass is expected to reach 25-30 mph this afternoon. A Lake Wind Advisory will be issued for San Luis Reservoir for this afternoon during peak wind gusts. Otherwise, will continue the cooling trend today as Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 90 degrees is less than 30 percent north of Tulare County. For the Tulare and Kern County Portions of the San Joaquin Valley, PoE of reaching 90 degrees falls between 25 and 50 percent with Southwest Kern County in the 40-60 percent range. By Sunday, PoE of 90 degrees rises above 70 percent valley-wide as temperatures claim toward the Century Mark by the middle of next week. PoE of 100 degrees rises above 50 percent by Tuesday as some locations hit 100 degrees. Widespread triple digits will be observed on Wednesday as the 90th percentile has values ranging from 101 to 106 across the valley. Longer range analysis has the Climate Prediction Center placing Central California in the leaning above normal category (40-50% chance) for temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks.

Precipitation-wise, will see slight chances for convection over the Sierra Crest and portions of the Tehachapi Mountains closer to the mid-week period as an area of high pressures strengths near the Four Corners area. While the flow aloft will remains mostly westerly this weekend and early next week, the flow will have a slight southerly to almost southeasterly component. While still limited, some moisture surge does makes its way toward Central California. Thunder will return by Wednesday across the Sierra Nevada Crest and will trend toward an increase in the Probability of Thunder to almost 30 percent by Thursday afternoon (Best Chances). Climate Prediction Center shows a slight northward surge of precipitation chances in the 6 to 10 Day period toward leaning above (33-40% chance) normal. This is a good indicator of Monsoonal type moisture starting its northward surge this summer.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.