textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Moderate Heat Risk on Friday before Minor Heat Risk over the weekend into next week due to cooling trend over weekend.

2. There is a 70-85% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph in the Mojave Desert Slopes overnight into Friday morning. Wind Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Friday.

3. There is above average confidence that temperatures will be above average but not hot next week.

4. Minimum RH values lower with stronger wind gusts over the Sierra Crest Saturday and Sunday.

DISCUSSION

The ridge of high pressure which brought us the triple digit temperatures the past few days will continue to persist into Friday although it will weaken a bit by the trough that slides in this weekend. Temperatures will drop a bit due to the weakening with a 50 to 70 percent chance of triple digits in the southern portion of the Valley from Fresno to Bakersfield. Otherwise, Heat Risk will be Moderate across the entire area. Winds also will be strong along the Mojave Slopes through Friday morning due to the ridge weakening slightly. A Wind Advisory is in effect through 8 AM Friday for the Mojave Slopes due to a 70 to 85 percent chance of 45 mph gusts overnight.

Temperatures continue to drop on Saturday as the trough approaches with a 60 to 70 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees from Fresno on south in the Valley. Winds pick up Saturday into Sunday due to the trough. The strongest gusts are expected along the Sierra Nevada crest, Mojave Slopes and Desert, and also for Lake Isabella and San Luis Reservoir. However, precipitation chances will be near zero over the weekend despite the trough. However, a thing to look out for is the minimum RH values actually lower over the weekend for the Sierra Crest. This could pose a concern for fire weather with the increased wind gusts.

Temperatures climb back Monday into the middle of next week even though a troughing pattern remains over the area. There is a 40 to 60 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees from Tuesday into next weekend. The CPC has a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in our area for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. There also remains a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 8 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300>317-319- 321.