textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures warm Monday and Tuesday before another cooldown midweek.

2. Temperatures rebound over next weekend.

3. Dry conditions will prevail for the next week.

DISCUSSION

Latest satellite imagery shows the trough that brought cooler temperatures and gusty winds on Sunday has begun to lift and move off east. The lifting trough sets up a warm up for Monday with a Rex Block off the coast and a big ridge over the South. The warm up will continue through Tuesday when there is a 75 to 90 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees on Tuesday.

However, ensembles have shifted as another trough slides in on Wednesday into Thursday dropping temperatures down again. Wednesday and Friday have a 25 to 45 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees but a 80 to 90 percent chance of highs below 90 on Thursday. The ensembles also have less than a 20 percent chance of max gusts of 25 mph with this trough and the precipitation chances near zero. Other than the Mojave Slopes has a 75 percent chance of 35 mph gusts on Tuesday and Wednesday before decreasing, strong winds are not widely expected with the trough over the Mojave Desert. Temperatures rebound next weekend with a 60 to 80 percent chance of highs back in the 90s in the Valley. The CPC continue to favor above average temperatures with a 40 to 50 percent chance in the 6-10 day and 33 to 40 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook. However, the outlooks still have a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.