textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warmer with mainly dry conditions today, except for a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

2. A low pressure system brings chances for more widespread precipitation this weekend. Mainly a 5-15 percent chance of thunderstorms from the east side of the San Joaquin Valley into the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills.

3. Slight chances for precipitation continue each day until Wednesday over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

DISCUSSION

The San Joaquin Valley will have a bit of warmer conditions today as we wait for the next trough to come in. Expect temperatures to cool as we head into the weekend. Following those cooler temperatures, there is a slight chance for precipitation throughout the valley. The area with the highest chance of precipitation is the Sierra Nevada mountains and the surrounding foothills. Snow levels are dropping down to 6,000 feet, however, locations above 8,000 feet have a 20-50 percent chance of receiving up to 6" of snow.

Current Probability of Precipitation (PoP) peaks Saturday evening. For the foothill portion of the CWA, there is a 90 percent (best case) chance of meeting or exceeding 0" of rain and a 10 percent (worst case) of meeting and exceeding 1". The northern portion can see best case of 0" and worst case of 0.45". The southern portion of the CWA can see best case of 0" and worst case of 0.30". There is a 5-10 percent chance of thunderstorms within the valley, and a 10-15 percent chance of thunderstorms within the Sierra Nevada Mountain.

Sunday we begin to dry out as the system moves eastward. With the system leaving, the windy zones will indeed live up to their reputation. There is currently an 80-90 percent chance for the Mojave Desert and the Slopes to have gusts over 40 mph on Sunday. Then again a 55-75 percent chance of gusts over 55 mph in the desert slopes.

The temperatures stay cooler into Tuesday as a short wave comes through before a ridge comes in through the middle of the work week. By Friday, the entire valley will be flirting with mid to upper 80's.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in the San Joaquin Valley. Windy and gusty conditions in the Mojave Desert Slopes this evening. Gusts up to 25 mph this evening.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.