textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. The warming temperatures will continue through late this week, becoming triple digits in some parts of the Valley tomorrow.

2. Hot and dry conditions this week will create increased fire risk across the region.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The ridge centered over New Mexico will continue to raise 500mb heights in Central and Southern California, leading to a warming trend throughout the region. Newest model runs are now showing this ridge remaining over New Mexico and not pushing further west as seen in previous runs. This has changed the forecasted highs for the region this week, where before temperatures a few degrees above 100 degrees were likely, now widespread upper 90's with some locations reaching triple digits has become more likely. But even with the less aggressive warm- up than anticipated, afternoon RH's will remain in the upper teens into the low 20's, so an increased fire risk remains in place.

Confidence continues to increase for a trough moving through the west coast by Friday into this weekend, as well as the newest temperature forecast showing even cooler highs than previous model runs, with Saturday seeing highs in the mid to upper 80's across the Valley and the upper 80's into the lower 90's in the Mojave Desert. RH's that afternoon are also showing an improvement with values around 25 to 35 percent across the Valley and in the upper teens into the 20's for the Desert. Long term models continue to show another warm up starting by next Monday into the beginning of July.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.