textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Red Flag Warning in Effect Friday 9 AM to Saturday 11 PM for the following Fire Weather Zones: Indian Wells Valley, Kern County Desert, and Lake Isabella.

2. Wind Advisory in Effect for Sierra Nevada Crest Friday 11 AM to Saturday 5 AM.

3. Dry and windy conditions create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in Eastern Kern and Southern Tulare Counties.

4. Cool down into the weekend will bring below normal temperatures.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Strong winds are expected to continue through Sunday morning as a low pressure trough moves through California. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Sierra Nevada mountains through Saturday morning and for the Mojave Desert through Sunday morning due to these strong winds running across the mountainous regions of our CWA. Along with these winds are continuing low RH's in the desert and southernmost Sierra Nevada, where a Red Flag Warning has been issued due to the elevated fire risk through tomorrow night. After this weekend, winds are expected to calm down somewhat as the most energetic part of the trough has moved to the east, but winds are expected to pulse up in the afternoon before coming back down again during the overnight hours.

While this troughiness sticks around the southwest over the next week, temperatures will be kept slightly below normal during that time, leading to the Valley seeing highs in the upper 80's to lower 90's throughout the next week. As of the latest model guidance, highs will begin to approach normal again by next Saturday with temperatures into the mid 90's, though these highs will still be a few degrees below normal due to the continued slight troughing. The Climate Prediction Center has temperatures possibly rising back to yearly normals by the 8 to 14 day period as our region is in the near-normal category.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. 50-75% probability for surface wind gusts reaching 35kts across the Sierra Nevada Crest, Tehachapi Range and Mojave Desert after 22Z Friday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Red Flag Warning until 11 PM PDT Saturday for CAZ298-299-595. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for CAZ337-339. Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for CAZ323-326-328-330- 331.