textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
DISCUSSION
Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion (with some sarcasm)! The low pressure trough that brought in cooler temperatures and activity in the Sierra Nevadas begins to lift today and is expected to run away from California by Wednesday. Temperatures will remain in the 80s today throughout the valley, but thereth existseth a ridge on the horizon that will begin to dominate over our forecast area. Guess what that means? The heat is cranking up! Temperatures will hover around the low to mid 90s Wednesday, and will lead to chances of greater than 60% for temperatures exceeding 95 degrees from Thursday through at least this weekend. On top of that, Saturday and Sunday currently show a 20-40% chance for the Southwestern parts of the valley to exceed triple digits. This pattern change will lead to a warming and drying trend that will push temperatures across our CWA well above seasonal norms, as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal by this weekend. Those heaters will sure come in handy at home folks! Luckily Mother Nature is currently trying to be somewhat kind to us by providing very high confidence of wind gusts staying below 20 mph, so blowdryer heat is not expected as of now.
These temperatures will bring Moderate Heat Risk back to the Valley starting on Thursday, becoming widespread by this weekend. Those wanting a blistering October fear not, this ridge appears to stay stationary over the area for quite some time. Therefore, temperatures and Moderate Heat Risk are very much likely to remain prominent through early next week. The Climate Prediction Center also has above normal temperatures in both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks with our CWA in the 80-90% probability category.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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