textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Above average temperatures continue to climb through Thursday before a major cooling trend into the weekend and next week.

2. Winter Storm Watch in effect from 4 pm Friday through 4 AM next Tuesday. 6 to 12 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet.

3. Multiple storm systems on Friday night through Saturday and Sunday night through Tuesday bring much needed rain to the Valley and Sierra Foothills.

DISCUSSION

Before our dramatic shift this weekend, continued high pressure will continue. Tonight, light mist is expected to transition to haze after sunrise. Newer model guidance (REFS, RRFS) continues to resolve isolated areas of dense fog between CA-99 and I-5, but forecast confidence from these solutions is low at best. As rain has not fallen for over a week, surface moisture is not expected to support development of dense fog.

Continued high pressure also means continued warming. Temperatures 5-10 degrees above average will continue until Friday, with the San Joaquin Valley south of Highway 198 having a high (60-90%) chance to exceed 80 degrees on Thursday afternoon. These temperatures present a minor risk of heat illness, especially for those sensitive to warm temperatures.

Now for the elephant in the room. A dramatic shift in our weather is expected on Friday as the first of a "1-2" punch of shortwave troughs cross our area. The first punch will bring chances for rain and snow starting Friday morning. A Winter Storm Watch will come into effect at 4PM Friday afternoon and continue through 4AM Tuesday morning as a result. Primetime for our first punch will be Friday evening through Saturday morning. Between then, about 6-12 inches of new snow is expected above 6,000 feet. Below this level, expected rainfall varies widely. Most of the forecast has high (greater than 70%) chances for at least 0.25" of rain by Saturday morning, with only the Mojave Desert and southern Coastal Range excluded. Chances for at least 0.5" remain equally high along the CA-99 corridor and higher elevation eastward, while chances for at least an inch of rain vary from moderate (30-50%) along CA-99 to high (60-80%) in the Sierra Nevada below 6,000 feet.

Meanwhile, our second punch of rain and snow will draw out from Sunday evening through Tuesday morning. The general pattern in rainfall thresholds is also forecast for our second punch, though chances for each tier will be 10-20% less. Snow-wise, at least an additional 3-5 inches of snow above 6,000 feet is likely (70-90% chance), with moderate (40-60%) chances for 6 inches or more. Longer- term guidance indicates even more rain and snow may come, with the Climate Prediction Center forecast a 60-70% chance for wetter than average conditions through the end of next week.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours. In the Valley, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail with a few patches of IFR conditions due to mist until 18Z Today.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Wednesday, November 11, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Monday night for CAZ323-326>330.