textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir Thursday morning into evening. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella Friday morning through Saturday morning.

2. Above average temperatures continue to climb through Thursday before a major cooling trend into the weekend and next week.

3. Winter Storm Watch in effect from 4 pm Friday through 4 AM next Tuesday with 6 to 12 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet.

4. Multiple storm systems on Friday night through Saturday and Sunday night through Tuesday bring much needed rain to the Central Valley and Sierra Nevada foothills.

DISCUSSION

The persistent ridge of high pressure will continue until Thursday but will shift eastward by Thursday evening. One more day with dry conditions and well above average temperatures is in store; expect similar temperatures to today's with highs in the lower 80s at the warmest locations in the San Joaquin Valley. Expect breezy to gusty conditions at San Luis Reservoir on Thursday. Beginning Friday, breezy winds at Lake Isabella and strong and gusty winds along the Mojave Desert slopes into the desert floor will take place until Saturday morning.

The trough of low pressure arrives early Friday morning with increasing southerly winds and the beginning of precipitation. Rain and higher elevation snow begin in earnest by Friday afternoon and will last through the night. We continue to see a good chance of higher elevation snow, with a high probability (80-90 percent) of at least a foot over the Sierra Nevada crest between Friday morning and Saturday morning, along with 1.00 to 1.50 inches of rain in the lower Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills (below 6,000 feet elevation). By early Saturday morning, temperatures will lower further while we see a break in precipitation before the next system arrives beginning late Sunday night. Precipitation chances will continue until Tuesday. Latest guidance shows the next system provides lesser amounts, as the chances for at least one inch of precipitation are now 30-40 percent in the Sierra and 20-30 percent for the Kern County mountains. Snow levels will also be around 6,000 feet with this next system. This system will also bring another chance for gusty winds over the usual prone areas, such as the coastal ranges and higher terrain adjacent to the west side of the San Joaquin Valley, Sierra Nevada crest, and Mojave Desert.

A third system arrives next Wednesday, with chances continuing for the remainder of next week. Precipitation amounts are uncertain at this time, although similar snow levels as with the earlier systems are projected. Snow levels much below 5,000 feet are unlikely through next week, so impacts will occur above the pass levels with these three systems. Cooler, unsettled weather will be the general pattern for much of next week.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours. In the Valley, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail with a few patches of IFR conditions due to mist mostly between 9Z and 18Z Thursday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Thursday, November 12, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM PST Thursday for CAZ300. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Monday night for CAZ323-326>330. Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ332.