textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will be normal to slightly below normal Friday and into next week.

2. Moisture tracking over the region bring a 10-45% chance of thunderstorms from the foothills to the Sierra Nevada Crest.

3. Precipitation chances return again in the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Yesterday's cloudiness made for very nice temperatures around the San Joaquin Valley. A similar story is in line for today. Most of the SJV woke up to cloudiness and Merced county woke up to some rain. It'll be another cloudy day for most of the Valley. There still exists a slight chance for the SJV to get more than a slight sprinkle, but this moisture tracked further north than originally anticipated. There's currently a 5-10% chance of at least 0.10" in the San Joaquin Valley. So, expect cars to get marked with just enough sprinkles to be annoying, but not enough to give a car wash.

Looking into the weekend and next week, this moisture will be gone by Saturday morning, leaving behind cooler temperatures for much of the CWA. For both Saturday and Sunday, temperatures will stay below 100 degrees, save for the Mojave Desert. Even for the Mojave Desert, the probability of exceeding 103 degrees is 40% on Saturday, then drops to less than 5% on Sunday. For everyone else in the CWA, there's a 10% chance of exceeding 99 degrees on Saturday. Sunday will be a 10% chance of exceeding 98 degrees.

There is some model disagreement currently on what the next troughing system will look like. There is agreement that there will be a trough next week, letting cooler temperatures stick around, but how deep it cuts into California is what models are disagreeing on. One scenario that could potentially play out would introduce more precipitation, this time getting the Bakersfield area and the Valley itself to see a bit more rain. However, if the drier plays out, then it could be that the Mojave Desert is what gets only a small bit of rain. Regardless of which scenario plays out, temperatures are looking to stay below normal for the first few days of September.

This is in agreement with the current CPC outlooks. Both the 6-10 and 8-14 day have the Central Valley in the 33-40% chance of below normal temperatures. They are also beginning to hint at the potential for above normal precipitation, which for September, is near 0".

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours. However, 25 to 40 percent probability of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada between 18Z Friday and 6Z Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

5 to 10 percent probability of isolated thunderstorms across San Joaquin Valley from 12Z Friday to 12Z Saturday. Dry low- level atmosphere and fast storm motion presents the threat of lightning strikes with little to no precipitation should thunderstorms develop. Dry, cured fine fuels will support lightning ignitions.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.