textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and pleasant weather throughout the area this week.
2. Precipitation likely in the northern Sierra Nevada through early Thursday morning. Snow levels will likely remain above 9,500 ft through this period.
3. Confidence increasing for medium-to-high-impact fog event later this week.
DISCUSSION
Showers are being picked up on our radar well to our north and in the Sierra Nevada near Yosemite albeit lighter the farther south. There is a 20 percent chance of rain accumulating in Merced overnight tonight and a 25 to 40 percent chance of an additional tenth of an inch through Thursday morning for the foothills and Sierra Nevada. Dry conditions will prevail into the weekend with warming temperatures as the ridge strengthens and causes the low off the coast to be cut off. Latest probabilities show a 40 to 65 percent chance of highs of at least 75 degrees on Saturday. However, ensembles are picking up the potential for fog later this week thanks to the additional moisture and the ridge.
Latest ensembles show the cutoff low get picked up by a shortwave and streaks across Northern California late Saturday through Sunday. Models show a 10 percent chance or less of a tenth of an inch of rain in the Valley from this system with a 20 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch for the Sierra Nevada and the foothills through 4 pm Monday. The CPC continues favoring above average temperatures with a 70 to 80 percent chance in the 6-10 day outlook and a 60 to 70 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook. Meanwhile, the outlooks go from a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook to a 40 to 50 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook.
AVIATION
VFR conditions across central California for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Wednesday February 25 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Kings Counties. Burning Discouraged in Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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