textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend through the week into the weekend.

2. 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada through Thursday.

3. Next best chance of rain for the Valley comes next week.

DISCUSSION

A shortwave trough slides through the area on Tuesday keeping things unstable with a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada. However, the shortwave moves away on Wednesday as a rex block moves in which will continue the warming trend. The cutoff low from the rex block will slide away on Thursday leaving the ridge in place.

Temperatures continue to climb into the weekend. Friday has a 25 to 50 percent chance of highs of at least 90 degrees and Saturday has a 55 to 65 percent chance of highs in the 90s. Sunday brings slightly cooler temperatures as a low cuts off and slides through the area Sunday into Monday. This system brings the next chance of rain albeit a 15 to 25 percent chance of any accumulation on Monday in the Valley. The CPC 6-10 day outlook has equal chances of above and below average temperatures with a 50 to 60 percent chance of above average precipitation. On the other hand, the 8 to 14 day outlook has a 40 to 50 percent chance of both above average temperatures and above average precipitation.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California. However, there is a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms after 18Z over the Sierra Nevada.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

NOne.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.