textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Heat Advisory now in effect for the majority of the area until 11 PM Tuesday.

2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk, including triple-digit heat, in the lower elevations Thursday until next weekend. Some pockets of Major Heat Risk, particularly near urban areas.

3. Hot and dry conditions will create increased fire risk in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend.

4, Chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada the next few days, which may include dry lightning.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The heat will persist into the middle of the week as the ridge moves more inland. With that, expect to see temperatures still within the 100 degree range. There is a 50-90 percent chance of exceeding 100 degrees today, with similar chances until Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to the low 70s, particularly in urban areas. This is leading to moderate heat risk, with the chance of some areas experiencing major heat risk. Ensure that there is access to proper cooling centers and hydration. Limit time outdoors if possible and if not, wear light colored clothing.

By Wednesday, the chance to exceed 100 degrees will decrease to 35-55 percent. This is because there is a breakdown in the ridge thanks to a trough passing in the Pacific Northwest. With the trough, there will be a return to the climatological normals. There is good agreement on the temperature range, which is promising! It'll be a nice break after having 100s for a long stretch. Despite the more normal temperatures coming, there is still elevated fire conditions, particularly within Eastern Kern and Tulare Counties. All counties should exercise caution, however. Within the Sierra Nevada, there is a 10-25 percent chance of thunderstorms today.

As people attempt to cool down from these hot temperatures, please remember that waterways are still running cold. Even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in 10-15 minutes in water that is 50 to 60 degrees.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next 24 hours. Smoke from large fire east of Bakersfield may impair visibility near the Tehachapi Mountains.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is high.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ300>321-332.