textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Slight chances of thunderstorms until early next week over the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada.

2. Cooler, unsettled weather Sunday until Tuesday with snow above 7,000 feet in the Sierra Nevada. Slight chances of thunderstorms also for the Sierra foothills.

3. Gusty winds in the Kern County desert Sunday until Monday night/Tuesday morning.

4. Warming trend on Wednesday into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Today will be another warm day, similar to yesterday, across Central California with daytime highs around ten degrees above average. Probabilities for highs at least 90 degrees are 50-60 percent for the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert (except 90-95 percent towards Bakersfield).

Significantly cooler temperatures and unsettled weather are in store for Sunday until Tuesday as an offshore upper-level low with an associated trough over Central California. The low will move onshore by Monday morning and gradually move eastward over our area through Tuesday morning. In addition, winds pick up by Sunday afternoon and last until Monday night/Tuesday morning; this has prompted issuance of Wind Advisories, including for the Kern River Valley (Lake Wind Advisory), Kern County desert floor, and the Mojave Desert slopes. Probabilities for 40 mph gusts are near 100 percent for much of the desert. Gusty winds will also develop over the Sierra Nevada crest, as the probability for 40 mph gusts are 70-80 percent by Sunday and lowers to 50-60 percent Monday and Tuesday. A daily slight chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms will last until Tuesday over the Sierra Nevada crest, but will spread into the foothills Sunday until Tuesday. Otherwise, a total of a few inches of snow will fall above 7,000 feet in the Sierra, with the bulk on Monday and Monday night. There is also a low probability (roughly 10 percent) that locations in the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet will receive as high as 3-4 inches of precipitation during Sunday-Tuesday, with the bulk also on Monday and Monday night. Otherwise, the most likely storm total amounts are closer to one to two inches in these particular areas. A slight (15-20) chance for light showers exists for 24 hour amounts of 0.10 inch or greater in the San Joaquin Valley and a moderate probability (35-45 percent) for amounts of 0.25 inch or greater for each 24 hour period during Sunday-Tuesday for the Sierra Nevada foothills. However, locations in the Sierra foothills have a worst case scenario (10 percent chance) for amounts of 0.50 to 0.75 inch in each 24 hour period.

Warmer temperatures return by later next week as a ridge of high pressure rebuilds over the region. Probabilities for more 90 degree readings are currently 60-70 percent from Thursday until next Saturday. Average highs for this time of year are in the lower 80's. Latest CPC outlooks suggest a slight tilt towards above average precipitation with a high probability of above average temperatures for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours over Central California.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 8 AM PDT Tuesday for CAZ338. Lake Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ332. Wind Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 11 PM PDT Monday for CAZ337- 339.