textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warm and pleasant weather throughout the area this week.
2. Precipitation likely in the northern Sierra Nevada through tonight. Snow levels will likely remain above 9,500 ft through this period.
3. Confidence increasing for medium-to-high-impact fog event later this week.
DISCUSSION
Light showers in the Sierra Nevada will continue to persist through tonight. Dry, warming conditions will prevail into the weekend as the ridge strengthens and causes the low off the coast to be cut off. Latest probabilities show Saturday being the warmest day of the week, with a 40 to 60 percent chance of highs above 75 degrees in the northern valley and 70 to 90 percent in the southern valley.
Latest ensembles show the cutoff low get picked up by a shortwave and streaks across Northern California late Saturday through Sunday. Models show a 10 percent chance or less of a tenth of an inch of rain in the Valley from this system with a 25 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch for the Sierra Nevada and the foothills through 4 pm Monday. The CPC continues favoring above average temperatures with a 70 to 80 percent chance in the 6-10 day outlook and a 60 to 70 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook. Meanwhile, the outlooks go from a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average precipitation in the 6-10 day outlook to a 40 to 50 percent chance in the 8-14 day outlook.
In spite the drying conditions, ensembles are picking up the potential for fog due to ridging and residual moisture. Visibility below one quarter mile will bring High Transport Risk at points tonight through Saturday morning, necessitating a Dense Fog Advisory should confidence increase.
AVIATION
VFR conditions across central California for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
On Wednesday February 25 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, and Kings Counties. Burning Discouraged in Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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