textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Updated Aviation Section.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Heat Advisory now in effect for the majority of the area until 11 PM Tuesday.

2. Widespread Moderate Heat Risk, including triple-digit heat, in the lower elevations Thursday until next weekend. Some pockets of Major Heat Risk, particularly near urban areas.

3. Hot and dry conditions will create increased fire risk in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend.

4, Chance for thunderstorms in the Sierra Nevada the next few days, which may include dry lightning.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The Heat Advisory now in effect for the majority of the area until 11 PM Tuesday.

The heat continues, with the majority of the Valley sitting at a 60-80% chance to exceed 100 degrees Sunday, with similar chances Monday. The ridge looks to remain quite stable as the week begins, with high temperatures expected to remain in the upper 90s and low 100s across the Valley through Wednesday. With overnight lows only in the upper 60s to low 70s (particularly near urban areas), the accumulated heat exposure is significant. It is imperative to ensure access to proper cooling, stay hydrated, limit outdoor activity, and wear light and breathable clothing if you must be outdoors. Take extra precaution for vulnerable people and for animals and check in on those in need.

The good news is that clusters are in unusually strong agreement that the ridge will break down to some degree later next week, which should help us return to more reasonable temperatures near climatological normals, with temperature spreads being abnormally narrow for a long-term forecast. That being said, the prolonged period of hot and dry conditions will create continued elevated fire conditions, particularly in eastern Kern and Tulare Counties, though all areas should exercise caution, as we have seen many fires across the entire area recently. This fire risk will be augmented by thunderstorm risk in the Sierra Nevada every day, which includes a risk of dry lightning.

As people attempt to cool down from these hot temperatures, please remember that waterways are still running cold. Even the most experienced swimmers can lose dexterity in 10-15 minutes in water that is 50 to 60 degrees.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected in the San Joaquin Valley for the next 24 hours. Smoke from large fire east of Bakersfield may impair visibility near the Tehachapi Mountains.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Heat Advisory until 11 PM PDT Tuesday for CAZ300>321-332.