textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Seasonally average temperatures return this weekend, then the next warmup is expected later next week.
2. Another monsoon push occurs early next week and increases probability of Sierra Nevada thunderstorms.
DISCUSSION
Minor changes in the forecast expected as temperature hover near seasonal normal values and remain in a steady state for several days. With Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of reaching 100 degrees slowly rising to 60-80 percent next week, will see max temperatures about 1 to 2 degrees above or below 100 degrees. Therefore, warm and dry across the San Joaquin Valley will be observed as shower remain confined to the high Sierra Nevada. By Thursday, PoE of 105 begin a slow rise as the heat dome positions itself closer to the West Coast. During this transition, monsoonal moisture will slowly trek back toward California as Sierra Crest thunderstorms become more widespread during the mid-week period of the forecast. This surge of moisture will start early as a slight chance of thunderstorms in the high Sierra Nevada, mainly towards Mt. Whitney, will exist on Sunday.
Chances for mountain thunderstorms continue for both Tuesday and Wednesday with an increase in probabilities (or about 20-30 percent). We will see gradually lowering chances Thursday until next weekend, but triple digit heat, or mainly around 100-105 degrees, continues in most locations of the San Joaquin Valley and Kern County desert. Overall, we're anticipating typical summertime weather.
The odds remain tilted towards above average temperatures (mainly 50-60 percent probability) for the 6-10 day and 8-14 day ranges, per CPC, while precipitation is near average.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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