textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming and drying trend is expected this weekend with temperatures rising to above average.

2. Another low pressure system brings strong winds through Friday morning within the Mojave Desert Slopes and Desert Floor.

3. An elevated risk for fire starts exists by the end of this week in eastern Kern County due to low humidity and increased winds.

4. Next chance for precipitation and cooler temperatures begins early next week.

DISCUSSION

No precipitation chances as the inside slider moves across the area. Instead, it'll bring winds and cooler weather. Today, the valley floor will see breezy weather with sustained winds between 5 and 10 mph. Gusts are possible of over 20 mph. Along the Mojave Desert Slopes, a Wind Advisory has been issued, as they will see winds sustained at 20-25 mph with gusts upwards of 45 mph. Temperature wise, it'll be nice and cool today and tomorrow. The Northern CWA has a 90 percent chance (best case) of meeting and exceeding 70 degrees and a 10 percent chance (worst case) of meeting and exceeding 76 degrees. The Southern part has a best case of meeting and exceeding 72 degrees and a worst case of meeting and exceeding 79 degrees.

These nice temps will be leaving us after Friday. Unfortunately, there is some ridging that will be building over the area throughout the weekend. By Sunday, north of Fresno County has a best case of meeting and exceeding 73 degrees and a worst case scenario of 79 degrees. South of Fresno is looking at best case 72 degrees and worst case 80 degrees. On Monday, these best case worst case scenarios get warmer. Fresno County and north of it is looking at best case of 80 degrees and worst case of 85 degrees. Working our way down south, the worst case scenario is 88 degrees. Let's hope for best case with would keep the southern CWA at 80 degrees.

The next low pressure system is looking to get into the San Joaquin Valley by Monday morning and bring some chances of rainfall. Monday evening is looking to be a 20-30 percent chance of measurable precipitation that increases to 30 to 50 percent on the northern half of the CWA. For the southern half, there's a 10 to 20 percent chance for measurable rainfall Monday night. The old weatherman's adage of "closed low, meteorologist woe" remains true with this system. The possibility of precipitation extending into the middle of next week is possible, but there will be more certainty as we get closer.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. Surface winds gusting to G35KT across Mojave Desert after 06Z Thursday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ338. Wind Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for CAZ337-339.