textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

Key Messages

1. Minor Heat Risk over this week. Temperatures drop today through Friday before a warmup over the weekend.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect for San Luis Reservoir until midnight Thursday.

3. Gusty winds are likely this evening through late tonight in localized regions of the Central Valley.

4. There is a potential for a moderate heat risk mid through late week next week, but overall confidence is low.

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion! Temperatures are into the upper 80s today and Thursday as a trough slides in and will slowly move out on Friday. Current probabilities have greater than 85 percent chance of highs below 90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley the next two days. Winds pick up in the Valley tonight with the Lost Hills/Alpaugh and Fresno/Madera regions likely (greater than 65% chance) to see 25 mph gusts. Winds also pick up along the Mojave Slopes and Desert with probable evening gusts of 25-30mph, with high confidence of staying under 40mph. The winds at San Luis Reservoir maintain a 60 to 80 percent chance of 30 mph gusts on Wednesday leading to a Lake Wind Advisory until midnight Thursday. Besides that, no other wind products are expected at this time. These winds will not blow your house down and you won't be swept away, but make sure to secure any loose outdoor objects if you are in these wind prone areas.

Temperatures rebound over the weekend due to a weak ridge developing. There is a 65 to 80 percent chance of highs back in the low 90s over the weekend in the Valley. A shortwave trough and upper low slide in on next Monday lowering the probabilities to 45 to 60 percent. However, the shortwave gets cutoff and the ridge starts to strengthen, causing temperatures to climb back to the 90s mid next week with dry conditions. This is currently the most likely scenario, totally a "gotcha moment" as we approach fall season, awaiting the autumn chill. Those heaters could come in handy next week. However, an alternate scenario depicted in cluster models displays a possible closed upper low presenting chances for tropical moisture, with the CPC continuing to have a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation for this time of year. A depiction of this scenario a week out is noteworthy, and we will continue to monitor and update the forecast for this as we get closer.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for CAZ300.