textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures drop today but will remain above average through much of this week.

2. Gusty winds will develop at times this week along the Mojave Desert slopes.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

DISCUSSION

While this morning was a little cooler in most areas, it was still mild for this time of year, especially in the larger cities such as Fresno and Bakersfield where lows continued in the lower 60's. Today's highs are projected a little cooler than yesterday's, although record high temperatures will once again be challenged throughout the Central Valley, as the records are generally in the 80's. The probability for highs at 85 degrees or warmer are at 70-80 percent for this area. As for the Kern County desert, there is still a high (also about 70-80 percent) probability for readings above 90 degrees today.

Mainly minor changes in temperatures are in store for Monday through next weekend, although highs will also warm back up a touch on Monday. More 90 plus degree readings in the SJ Valley are at a 50-60 percent chance for Monday and still at 65-75 percent for the Desert. Wind gusts of 40 mph or stronger also have a good chance (70-80 percent) for occurrence along the Mojave Desert slopes for Monday evening into Tuesday morning. There are also additional chances for gusty winds in this area from late Wednesday onward. While upper-level high pressure ridging is still prevalent in the Southwest into Central California at this time, the ridge pattern will somewhat flatten, especially by midweek. This will allow for slight lowering of temperatures. However, well above average temperatures will still continue for several days, as highs remain in the 80's in the Valley. In the Desert, there is a good chance for highs to remain near 90 degrees in the Desert, as the probability for a 90 degree or warmer reading is still at 50-60 percent by Saturday with only minor changes from today until Friday. No precipitation is forecast for the next seven days.

A change in the pattern occurs sometime next weekend, although there are considerable differences between the models. The latest CPC outlooks show little change from yesterday, including above average temperatures for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks. Below average precipitation is favored for the next 6-10 days, while near average is shown for the 8-14 day outlook. However, as we head to early April, precipitation averages are significantly lower than they were earlier this month.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours except for MVFR in areas of mist from 12Z-18Z Monday in the San Joaquin Valley, mainly in areas around KVIS.

FIRE WEATHER

Warm air temperatures and steady dew point temperatures will continue to result in lower minimum relative humidities, especially for the Mojave Desert, high Sierra, and Coastal Range. This will coincide with much lower 100- and 1000-hr dead fuel moistures and higher ERC (Energy Release Component) in these areas. Rapid curing of fine fuels will bring about some risk for isolated grass fires. However, live fuel moisture remains below critical thresholds and significant wildfire potential remains at little or no risk.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.