textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warmup continues today before trending back to seasonal averages.
2. Monsoonal moisture brings 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Friday.
3. Breezy conditions take place over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes.
DISCUSSION
The heat continues as the ridge over the Southwest continues to persist with a trough off the coast. Today is expected to be the warmest day as there is a 75 to 80 percent chance of triple digits and a 10 to 25 percent chance of highs of at least 105 today in the Valley. In the Desert, there is a 75 to 85 percent chance of highs of at least 105 degrees today. Winds continue to be gusty in the afternoon in the windy spots of San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes. Lake Isabella has a Lake Wind Advisory from 2 to 8 PM today due to wind gusts up to 30 mph expected.
However, the ridge begins to weaken slightly on Friday through the weekend with the trough slowly trying to slide north and over through the Pacific Northwest. This change brings an increase of monsoon moisture and a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms every afternoon for the Sierra Nevada. Temperatures also fall back to near normal beginning Friday but triple digit chances will be at 40 to 60 percent through Monday with the exception of Saturday. In the Desert, there is a 45 to 75 percent chance of highs of at least 105 through Saturday before lowering on Sunday through next week. The CPC continues to favor a 33 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures for much of Central California in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Lake Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ332.
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