textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will remain above average through the weekend.

2. Gusty winds will develop late Wednesday through early Thursday morning along the Mojave Desert slopes and at times through the weekend.

3. Practice cold water safety, as waterways will be running cold and fast over the next several days.

4. Chances for precipitation and cooler temperatures return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Ensembles continue to show the ridge pattern weaken and flatten further as the westerlies spread into the Northern California. While probability of exceedance (PoE) of reaching 85 degrees across the San Joaquin Valley is up to 40-65 percent on Wednesday, they drop below 10 percent on Thursday. Its during the Thursday time frame that a disturbance will cross Northern California and introduce significant cooling and strong winds across the Mojave Desert. While still above normal, temperatures will bottom out in the lower 80s on Thursday. A wind advisory is currently in effect for the Mojave Desert Slopes from Wednesday Night through Thursday Morning.

The disturbance is expected pass the area by Friday as temperature PoE show a increase in percentages back to the 60-80 percent range. While the PoE of reaching 90 degrees is around 40-60 percent for the south valley, temperatures will rebound into the mid to upper 80s for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. With only a weaker ridge pattern during the end of the week and the weekend, ensembles are now showing a stronger disturbance attempting to drop toward Central and Southern California around the end of the month. While ensemble show the onset of precipitation as early as Monday (March 30th), model consensus is better on Tuesday with probability of measurable precipitation reaching 50-70 percent just north of Kern County. At the moment, the chance of receiving a tenth of an inch of liquid precipitation is in the range of 3555 percent from Fresno (City) northward with the higher probability percentages over Merced and Mariposa Counties.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Surface winds increasing to G35KTS after 00Z Thursday across the Mojave Desert Slopes.

FIRE WEATHER

The cooling trend will continue across the region with temperatures remaining above normal for the period. With the ridge of high pressure continuing to shift east, will see further cooling through Thursday before warming start on Friday. Winds with remain light and terrain driven with breezy conditions over the ridge-tops. Humidity recovery will see improvements during the cool-down. No precipitation is expected this through the weekend.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 5 PM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ338.