textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Moderate Heat Risk today as temperatures rise above seasonal normals.

2. Minor Heat Risk through the weekend as temperatures drop to seasonal normals.

3. Lake Wind Advisory issued for San Luis Reservoir this afternoon through the evening.

4. Likely chances of gusty conditions from 15-25mph in the Valley tonight through Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion! Today we receive a relieving welcome to the fall season with expected high temperatures between 95-100 degrees for the Valley, awesome! Under the influence of high pressure moving warm desert air into our region, today's temperatures can approach 10 degrees above normal. Highest probabilities (>60% chance) of exceeding 100 degrees today occur in the Southwestern parts of the Valley from Madera to Bakersfield. Following today, temperatures are expected to cool down to seasonally average in the coming days. Models are indicating a likely chance (>50%) for 25mph wind gusts at the San Luis Reservoir between 3pm-8pm, leading to a Lake Wind Advisory being issued. Elsewhere, thereth existseth a likely (>50% chance) of 20mph gusts in the Valley this evening through Friday morning, not likely to exceed 25mph.

Multiple weather models provide a consensus of a trough moving into our region, bringing the cooler temperatures, but the depth of the trough is still uncertain. Therefore, models have been providing a range of scenarios for our CWA. A slight probability (10-20%) for >0.01 inches of rain currently exists between Monday Morning and Tuesday Afternoon for the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert. Another scenario suggests a zonal pattern and thus less impact on weather in our region. Finally, the least likely scenario would be a ridging pattern shown in clustering with a low representation from the models. Given the uncertainty, it may be best to avoid betting on a winner in Vegas and to continue monitoring our forecasts into the weekend as models become more certain.

Looking ahead to October, the Climate Prediction Center indicates growing confidence for above normal temperatures to start the month. The 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook (covering September 29-October 3) shows a slight leaning (40-50% chance) towards above normal temperatures, increasing to a 50-60% chance in the 8-14 Day Outlook valid October 1-7. No strong precipitation signal is apparent in the near term outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory issued for San Luis Reservoir.