textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and windy conditions create significant fire risk this weekend, particularly in Eastern Kern and Southeastern Tulare Counties.

2. Below normal temperatures continue across the area.

3. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The large area of low pressure troughing over the western US will continue to support gusty afternoon and evening winds today. This will particularly be the case along the Mojave Slope (~40MPH gusts) and San Joaquin Valley north of Visalia (~20MPH gusts), where latest NBM and HREF guidance from this morning indicates winds will approach (but not meet) Wind Advisory thresholds. This sentiment is subject to change following newer model guidance and continued monitoring of surface observations, however. Whether a Wind Advisory is issued or not, dry air across the region still presents an elevated fire risk when combined with the afternoon and evening winds. This pattern is likely to continue into tomorrow, as a small low pressure anomaly within the larger troughing pattern quickly slides across our region from the Pacific Northwest.

Below normal temperatures are expected to continue into the next 7 days as the trough remains aloft, though with weaker winds due to a less intense pressure gradient in said trough. RH's will also remain in the teens to single digits in the desert and dry out in the Valley into the 15-25% range. By next weekend, it is expected to move east and ridging will begin building in its place. This will lead to a warm-up in temperatures throughout the region, and will approach the seasonal normals for this time of year. Long term models have this ridge gaining strength and above normal temperatures gaining a foothold once again by the week after next, which is also seen by the Climate Prediction Center as they have our area in the leaning above normal temperatures category for the 8 to 14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.