textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warming trend continues through much of the week.

2. Minor Heat Risk expected for the lower elevations of Central California.

3. Areas of Moderate Heat Risk expanding across the San Joaquin Valley and Mojave Desert toward the middle of the Week.

4. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest today.

5. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

The ridge is well in place today and will remain so throughout the week. Despite a disturbance passing through the Northern portion of California, it won't do much besides keep temperatures from being too hot. Today, temperatures will be widespread low 90's. Most of the Central San Joaquin Valley has a 90 percent chance of exceeding 93 degrees. The Probability of Exceedance (PoE) of 95 degrees today is 20 to 35 percent in the Northern portion of the CWA. The Southern portion of the CWA has a 45 to 70 percent PoE of 95 degrees today. The PoE of 95 degrees peaks on Friday afternoon, with the CWA having a 60 to 95 percent chance of exceeding 95 degrees. However, the PoE of reaching 100 degrees is 10 to 20 percent on Friday within the Valley. The PoE within the Mojave Desert to reach 100 degrees will be a 50 (California City) to 90 (Ridgecrest) percent chance.

With the air being hot and dry, relative humidities will reflect that. Today, RH minimums will be 15-20 percent within the Valley, and 10 percent within the Mojave Desert. With it being so warm, there is the chance of isolated convection within the Sierra Nevada Crest today. There is a 10 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms within the highest points today.

With the air temperatures warming up, it is important to remember that water ways including lakes, rivers and streams are running cold. Exercise cold water safety at all times.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours. Thunderstorms possible within the Sierra Nevada Crest from 21Z-03Z.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.