textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
UPDATE
KEY MESSAGES
1. A gradual warming and drying trend expected this week.
2. Another system brings stronger winds to the region by Thursday.
3. Low confidence for another storm system to move through the region by next Monday.
DISCUSSION
Calm weather is expected to set in as the trough that caused the thunderstorms from the last few days moves further to the east, with strong winds expected along the Mojave Slopes through the early morning. By tomorrow, it will have mostly exited the region and warmer temperatures and drier conditions are expected for our CWA through Thursday. That day will see another trough move through Nevada and lead to strong winds for the Sierra Nevada crest and into the Mojave Desert Slopes as it brushes our area. Slight cooling of temperatures are also expected from this trough, though due to the brief period of time this system will interact with the air aloft, the warming trend is expected to start back up by Friday as ridging takes over from the trough.
Looking to next week, a third trough may move through the region by next Monday, potentially more head on than the previous system, though current ensemble model are in low agreement as to where the trough is likely to come in, as well as how deep it might be. If this trough were to make a more direct pass through Central California, most model members have precipitation mainly in the mountains and foothills, with the Valley and Desert fairly dry. Confidence is expected to increase over the next few days, though as of current runs, confidence remains low for additional precipitation for the region next week.
AVIATION
VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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