textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Wind Advisory in effect 11 PM Monday to 11 AM Wednesday for Indian Wells Valley, Mojave Desert Slopes, and Mojave Desert.

2. Lake Wind Advisory in effect 5 PM Monday to 5 PM Wednesday for Kern River Valley, including Lake Isabella.

3. Dry conditions will allow the fire weather risk to remain in place through this week.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

5. Omega Block pattern will keep temperatures pleasant but allow for dry lightning chances in the Sierra Nevada for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Satellite imagery this morning has picked up the trough sliding down the Pacific Coast making its way towards California. This trough brings with it cooler temperatures and stronger winds. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the Mojave Slopes from late tonight through Wednesday morning and a Lake Wind Advisory is in effect for the Kern River Valley most notably for Lake Isabella as wind gusts pick up from this trough. There is a 60 to 85 percent chance of 45 mph gusts along the slopes and a 15 to 30 percent chance of 45 mph gusts for the rest of the desert on Tuesday. Lake Isabella has a 45 percent chance of 40 mph gusts on Tuesday.

In the Valley, temperatures drop Tuesday into Wednesday with a less than 20 percent chance of highs getting into the 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Snow levels also drop with this trough down to 7,000 feet with a 40 to 60 percent chance of 2 inches or more of snow above 7,500 feet including at Tioga Pass. The Valley will see only a 5 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain with this system. Thunderstorm chances also increase over the Sierra Nevada with a 15 to 25 percent chance on Wednesday and Thursday.

Going into the weekend, the cutoff low gets picked up by a shortwave and temperatures rebound with a 25 to 35 percent chance of highs returning to the 90s on Saturday and 45 to 60 percent chance of a high of at least 90 on Sunday. The CPC maintains dry conditions and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing across interior central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT Wednesday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT Wednesday for CAZ332.