textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Correction in the Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory for San Luis Reservoir Thursday morning into evening. Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella Friday morning through Saturday morning.

2. Above average temperatures continue to climb through Thursday before a major cooling trend into the weekend and next week.

3. Winter Storm Watch in effect from 4 pm Friday through 4 AM next Tuesday. 6 to 12 inches of snow expected above 6,000 feet.

4. Multiple storm systems on Friday night through Saturday and Sunday night through Tuesday bring much needed rain to the Valley and Sierra Foothills.

DISCUSSION

Temperatures continue to climb this afternoon and tomorrow as a ridge of high pressure remains in the area. We are looking at a 40 to 55 percent chance of 80 degrees tomorrow with Bakersfield at 95 percent. However, temperatures begin a very long slide Friday into the weekend as a series of troughs move through.

The first trough slides in Friday through Saturday. Winds will pick up but will remain below advisory level in the Valley, but it will be a different story in the Sierra Crest and Eastern Kern County. A Wind Advisory for the Mojave Slopes and Desert and Lake Wind Advisory for Lake Isabella will be in effect from Friday morning through Saturday morning due to gusts up to 50 mph.

The big story, though, with this first trough is the precipitation. The San Joaquin Valley has a 35 to 70 percent chance of half an inch of rain Friday into Saturday while the Sierra Foothills has a 20 to 50 percent chance of 2 inches or more of rain. Above 6,500 feet, the Sierras have a 20 to 40 percent chance of 12 inches or more of snow. A Winter Storm Watch is in effect from Friday through at least next Tuesday morning.

There is a brief reprieve for most of Saturday and Sunday before the second trough slides in. The Valley north of Kern County has a 40 to 65 percent chance of another half an inch of rain by the end of Monday while the foothills have a 25 to 60 percent chance of an additional inch or more. The Sierra also have a 40 to 60 percent chance of 6 inches or more above 7,000 feet Sunday into Monday.

However, the outlook looks even wetter with a 50 to 70 percent chance of above average precipitation in the CPC's 6-10 day outlook and a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average precipitation in the 8-14 day outlook. This bodes well with the ensembles showing another trough moving in next Wednesday into next Thursday.

AVIATION

For the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert, VFR conditions will be present for the next 24 hours. In the Valley, VFR/MVFR conditions will prevail with a few patches of IFR conditions due to mist mostly between 9Z and 18Z Thursday.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Wednesday, November 11, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for CAZ337>339. Lake Wind Advisory from noon to 11 PM PST Thursday for CAZ300. Winter Storm Watch from Friday afternoon through late Monday night for CAZ323-326>330. Lake Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 10 AM PST Saturday for CAZ332.