textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures begin to increase today and into next week as ridging takes place.

2. Practice safety around lakes, rivers, and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Latest satellite images show low and mid-level clouds persisting over the region. A low cloud deck earlier produced dense fog around sunrise this morning towards Tehachapi; these clouds will gradually decrease by later today. Some cumulus clouds are also developing over the Central Valley but will dissipate by early this evening. Precipitation has generally ended, although there is a slight chance for a light shower this afternoon towards Yosemite. The upper-level low has moved into the Great Basin, while we are currently under a northwesterly flow. Today's highs will remain below average, but much warmer than yesterday's. There is a moderate to high (60-70 percent) probability to reach 75 degrees in much of the valley and desert areas with a much lower chance to rise to the 80s (ten percent or less). The warming trend will continue this weekend into early next week.

Steady temperatures are in store for much of next week, with highs around ten degrees above seasonal averages beginning Monday. The warmest locations reach into the mid 90's, and the chances for a high temperature at least 95 degrees are 50-60 percent in the desert and 30-40 percent in the San Joaquin Valley, at least for Monday. Humidity will once again fall markedly due to the anticipated temperature increase next week. Dry conditions will prevail. Latest CPC outlooks show above average temperatures and near average precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the central California interior for the next 24 hours, except for areas of MVFR and local IFR ceilings over the mountains through 03Z Saturday.

FIRE WEATHER

Minimum humidity will fall to the single digits in the Mojave Desert in Kern County to the teens in the San Joaquin Valley and lower Sierra foothills, and the West Side Hills adjacent to the Coastal Ranges by early next week as maximum temperatures rise to around ten degrees above seasonal averages. There will be a moderate risk for large grass and brush fires in these areas with rapid spread possible. Breezy conditions will also be possible by the middle of next week in the San Joaquin Valley and coastal ranges.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.