textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lake Wind Advisory continues through this evening for West Side Coastal Mountains north of 198 and San Luis Reservoir.

2. Dry and breezy conditions create elevated fire risk into next week, especially in the Mojave Desert.

3. Near-normal temperatures expected across the area through Friday, then a warming trend over the holiday weekend.

4. Practice safety around lakes, rivers and streams, as water is still running cold.

DISCUSSION

Satellite loops show clear skies over the forecast area and a marine layer along the coast of California. An upper-level trough pattern prevails through today. Thus, another near average day in terms of temperatures is in store once again today. Breezy conditions continue along the Coastal Ranges and West Side Hills towards San Luis Reservoir. Will keep the Lake Wind Advisory for this area until this evening (11 PM PDT). The only other weather concern would be a slight (10-15 percent) chance of thunderstorms toward Yosemite over the high country for this afternoon and early this evening. A slight warming trend begins Friday, but highs noticeably warm over the weekend. The most likely location for triple digit heat will be in the Kern County desert, especially Independence Day into next week, including a 50-60 percent chance with increasing chances afterward. There will also be a slight chance (10-20 percent on Independence Day into Tuesday with a slight increase by Wednesday of next week) for triple digits to return to the San Joaquin Valley for this period. Daytime humidity will remain quite low with minimum values at 7-12 percent over the Mojave Desert and teens into the southern Sierra Nevada in Tulare County again today and lasts through next week. Otherwise, humidity lowers to the teens and 20s in the San Joaquin Valley each afternoon through next week.

AVIATION

VFR conditions expected across the area for the next 24 hours. However, IFR a slight (10-15 percent) of isolated thunderstorms along the Sierra Nevada crest from 20Z Thu to 03Z Fri, otherwise expect cumulus buildups.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Lake Wind Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for CAZ300.