textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
UPDATE
Updated Aviation Section.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Warmup continues Thursday before trending back to seasonal averages.
2. Monsoonal moisture brings 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada beginning Friday.
3. Slight risk of extreme heat next week.
DISCUSSION
Region-wide temperatures continue to trend upward. All climate sites reported average to above average temperatures today, with Fresno reaching triple digits. As for tomorrow, the National Blend of Models (NBM) shows high temperatures peaking in the low- to- mid 100s Thursday before returning back to seasonal average this weekend. Outside the Mojave Desert, NBM indicates a 70-90% probability for high temperatures above 100 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley, with the highest probability south of Hanford.
Along with a cooldown, a transition to south-southwesterly flow this weekend brings the next monsoon push. Thunderstorm probabilities return Friday, peaking around 15% along the Sierra Crest, then increasing a few percentage points Saturday as the southerly moisture transport strengthens. According to NBM, no rainfall is in the forecast for most of the area, except for a 40-50% probability for a trace or greater rainfall around Mount Whitney.
Looking past this weekend, both the Climate and Weather Prediction Centers anticipate a return to above average temperatures. The former indicates a 50-60% probability for above average temperatures by the end of next week, while the latter places a slight risk of extreme heat in the Days 8-14 outlook south of Madera County. The precipitation outlook, meanwhile, remains near normal for the rest of August.
AVIATION
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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