textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend into next week.

2. A warmer system slides into Northern California with precipitation in the northern portions of the Sierra Nevada through Wednesday morning. Snow levels will rise to 9,500 to 10,000 feet by Wednesday morning.

3. A Marginal Risk (at least 5%) for excessive rainfall exists on Tuesday for the Sierra Nevada and into the foothills for areas north of Tulare County

DISCUSSION

Temperatures continued to climb this afternoon and latest models continue to rise through the week thanks to a ridge of high pressure over the area. However, ensembles show large amounts of moisture to advect into Northern California despite the ridge budging slightly south. Models have continued to back off on precipitation amounts as there is a 5 to 15 percent chance of even a tenth of an inch of rain in 24 hours ending 4 am Wednesday. Merced has the highest probabilities in the Valley with a 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch of rain ending 4 am Wednesday. The foothills and Sierra Nevada also see a decrease in precipitation with the Yosemite Area seeing a peak probability of 15 to 30 percent chance of an inch of rain in 24 hours ending 4 am Wednesday. There currently is a marginal risk of Excessive Rainfall on Tuesday because of the rain amounts. However, the foothills of Mariposa and Madera Counties see a 40 to 65 percent chance of a quarter of an inch of rain which is lower than before with the rest of the foothills at 15 percent chance or less for a quarter of an inch.

The ridge will restrengthen Thursday into the weekend as the potential for 70s continues from Tuesday. Wednesday has a 65 to 80 percent chance of highs of at least 70 before dropping off on Thursday and Friday to 45 to 70 percent. The probabilities rebound on Saturday to 70 to 80 percent but drop off again slightly next Sunday to 55 to 75 percent. This favors the CPC outlooks which shows a 70 to 80 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks. There also is a 33 to 40 percent chance of below average precipitation in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions across central California for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

ISSUED: 02/21/2026 12:51 EXPIRES: 02/22/2026 23:59

On Sunday February 22 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno and Kern Counties. Burning Discouraged in Kings, Madera, Merced, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.