textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Minor Heat Risk into next week with a warmup over the weekend.
2. MinRHs continue to be below 25% in the upper portions of the Sierra Nevada with some areas below 15%. Desert locations can see MinRH values below 10 percent over the weekend.
3. A moderate heat risk mid to late week next week is likely. Thursday looks to be the hottest day next week with a greater than 70% chance of a moderate heat risk.
DISCUSSION
Temperatures warm up this weekend as a weak ridge slides through after the trough that brought cooler temperatures continues to move out of the Northwest. Latest ensembles have a 45 to 70 percent chance of highs of at least 90 for Saturday and Sunday. Temperatures take a tumble on Monday as another shortwave trough moves in. Minimum humidities improve over the Sierra Nevada and Mojave Desert next week thanks to this trough. Winds also pick up on Monday but models show a near 0 chance of max gusts of 25 mph in the Valley. In the Mojave, there also is a near 0 chance of wind gusts approaching 45 mph for the next week. However, no precipitation is expected again with this trough.
As the trough slides slowly out, the ridge that has been dominating the Southern U.S. will slowly retrograde west. Temperatures will rise again beginning Tuesday into next weekend. Probabilities for Moderate Heat Risk rise to near 70 percent on Thursday as there is a 25 to 35 percent chance of triple digits in the Valley including Merced. Triple digit chances remain on Friday at 10 to 20 percent. This tracks closely with the CPC continuing to show above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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