textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
UPDATE
Updated Key Messages.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Elevated fire risk concerns exist in the mountains and adjacent foothills in Kern and Tulare Counties this weekend due to gusty winds and low humidity.
2. A overall warming trend is expected through next week.
3. A minor cooling trend takes place Tuesday with a moderate chance of gusts above 40 mph along the Mojave Desert slopes.
DISCUSSION
Northeasterly flow remains over southern portions of our forecast area. This pattern will continue to shift south tonight. Winds will decrease over the mountains and desert overnight, and the chances for gusts above 40 mph gradually diminish to near zero by sunrise. However, some low humidity will persist through the day on Sunday before improving by the evening. An overall warming trend will occur next week, although minor cooling takes place on Tuesday.
Riding will build by the middle of the week and continues through the following weekend. The best chances for highs in the 80's in the San Joaquin Valley are Thursday through next Saturday (70-80 percent), while highs in the 90's have a moderate chance of occurrence (30-40 percent) in the Kern County desert. Highs in the mid-80's are otherwise more likely in this area. In the meantime, there is a moderate chance for highs of at least 80 degrees on Monday in the Central Valley, or at 40-50 percent. Overall, expect no precipitation for at least the next seven days. Latest CPC outlooks show high confidence of continued warmer than average temperatures and below average precipitation for both the 6-10 day and 8-14 day periods.
AVIATION
VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.
FIRE WEATHER
Fire weather is a concern in Tulare and Kern Counties in the mountains and foothills until Sunday, where northeasterly winds and low humidity will cause elevated concerns. However, moist fuels will keep fire risk from rising further.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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