textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

1. There is a slight chance for dense fog to form again tomorrow morning, likely to be a smaller area compared to this morning's fog.

2. Dry conditions and a brief warm up are expected through the weekend before temperatures dip back below normal next week.

3. Another trough moving in out of the Pacific Northwest may bring precipitation to the region once again by next Friday.

KEY MESSAGES

DISCUSSION

Dense fog has officially returned to the Valley after the rainfall of a couple days ago, and it is possible it may form again around sunrise tomorrow, with a 10-25% chance for quarter mile visibilities for the inner-most Valley between Highway 99 and the I-5. These chances are expected to decrease further into the weekend as we see a slight warm-up and the Valley continues to dry out the farther away the most recent precipitation event.

Speaking of said warm-up, it is expected to be brief, lasting only through tomorrow as highs in the Valley and desert reach into the mid to upper 70's (the reign of the 90's appear to be over as of the most recent rain event). Temperatures will begin to decrease again as a series of upper level troughs move through the Pacific Northwest through the mid-week, keeping temperatures below normal.

Looking to later next week, one of those troughs may dig further south, resulting in even more of a cooldown and potentially more precipitation for the region, though as of recent model runs, this has decreased fr Central California when compared to previous runs and may affect Southern California more, though this system is still 7 days out. This cool pattern may also remain in place beyond next week, as the Climate Prediction Center has the region in both above normal precip and below normal temps for both the 6 to 10 and 8 to 14 day outlooks, with stronger chances for those variables in the 6 to 10 day outlook.

AVIATION

10 to 30 percent chance of LIFR conditions until 17Z in the southern portion of the Valley. Areas of IFR visibilities will persist until 17Z, Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.