textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

UPDATE

Aviation section updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Winter Storm Warning replaced by Winter Weather Advisory for the Sierra Nevada above 6,000 feet, but remains in effect through Tuesday morning.

2. Active pattern continues with storm systems moving through the region Monday into Tuesday and Wednesday through Friday. Each system will bring additional rain and mountain snow along with increased winds.

3. Chances for patchy dense fog Sunday morning in the central San Joaquin Valley.

4. Temperatures near season averages this weekend before falling below average for the work week.

DISCUSSION

A day of relatively benign weather is in store for Central California on Saturday as the region is between two low pressure systems. The first of these systems tracked through the are yesterday through this morning, and is now centered mostly over the Great Basin. Cooler, drier air aloft on the backside of the system allowed for clear upper level conditions overnight, with cooler surface temperatures allowing for more saturated air to materialize across the valley areas. This led to patchy areas of dense fog this morning that has since lifted into partly cloudy skies. Chances for fog return for Sunday morning due to the increased surface moisture from Friday's rainfall and sit at 40 to 50 percent for development. One limiting factor is the propensity of upper level cloud cover, which will act as an insulator.

This upper level cloud cover will be from the outflow of the next system that is likely to pass through the region Monday, bringing additional rain and mountain snowfall. With a similar origin from yesterday's system, the next will have snow levels around 6500-7000 feet, resulting in additional snowfall up to 6 inches above these levels. Though these totals are most likely for the highest elevations of the Sierra. As winter conditions are likely in this area but with lower impacts, the Winter Storm Warning previously in effect until Tuesday morning has been replaced by a Winter Weather Advisory valid until the same ending time. Below the snow levels, rain will be the expected precipitation type. 24 hour rainfall totals on Monday have a 30 to 40 percent probability to exceed one-quarter inch in the San Joaquin Valley, which increases to 70 to 80 percent for the Sierra Foothills north of Tulare County.

A quick break in the pattern will occur on Tuesday into Wednesday before yet another system tracks into the region in the latter part of the week. Ensemble guidance suggests a more robust system dropping from the north Pacific early Wednesday. Totals from the system are likely to be similar to the one that just came through, with a 70 to 80 percent probability for one- quarter inch in the San Joaquin Valley on Wednesday, and an 80 to 90 percent prob for the Sierra Foothills. Snow levels look to continue to be near 6,000 feet, but with more moisture, additional snow accumulations are expected. Lower end totals for Wednesday (75% prob to be greater than) are generally 5 to 10 inches across the Sierra Nevada, however the higher end totals (25% prob to be greater than) are upwards of 24 inches. Naturally, these amounts apply more to the higher elevations than those at the snow levels.

AVIATION

Areas of misty MVFR conditions in the San Joaquin Valley between 7- 18Z affecting KMCE, KFAT, KVIS and KBFL. 50-60% chance for IFR conditions in mist at KVIS between 14-18Z, with a 30-40% chance for LIFR or lower conditions in dense fog and low ceilings. Elsewhere, VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

On Saturday, November 14, 2026, Fireplace/Wood Stove Burning Status is: No Burning Unless Registered in Fresno County. Burning Discouraged in Kern, Kings, Madera, Merced Counties, and Tulare Counties, and Kern (Greater Frazier Park Area) and Sequoia National Park and Forest.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for CAZ323- 325>330.