textproduct: San Joaquin Valley
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
1. Minor Heat Risk through Tuesday as temperatures remain at or below seasonal normal values.
2. A warming trend in temperatures starts on Wednesday as the region will see the return of heat during the latter part of the period. Thursday looks to be the hottest day with a greater than 70% chance of a Moderate Heat Risk. Friday also keeps a 40 to 60% chance of a Moderate Heat Risk.
3. A disturbance will cross the region on Monday and Tuesday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms across the Sierra Nevada Monday afternoon.
DISCUSSION
A weak ridge of high pressure is sliding across our area bringing warmer temperatures through Sunday. Sunday has a 60 to 65 percent chance of highs of at least 90 in the Valley except for Merced at 25 percent. A trough slides in Monday bringing slightly cooler temperatures but also a 5 to 15 percent chance of thunderstorms over the Sierra Nevada and foothills. However, precipitation chances will be at 5 to 10 percent for any accumulation in the Valley for Monday.
Temperatures begin to rebound Wednesday into the rest of the week as the trough slides out of the area. The ridge that has been dominating in the South will slowly retrograde west which will help keep things dry and fuel the warming trend. Moderate Heat Risk is likely Thursday and Friday. as there is a 20 to 35 percent chance of triple digits on Thursday and 15 to 25 percent on Friday. The CPC continues to show a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.
AVIATION
MVFR with local IFR conditions will exist across the Sierra Nevada and adjacent foothills as smoke from the Dome Fire in Yosemite continues through 08Z Sunday. After 08Z, MVFR visibility in the vicinity of the Dome Fire. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.
AIR QUALITY ISSUES
None.
CERTAINTY
The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.
Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.
HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
None.
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