textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Minor Heat Risk the rest of the week into next week with a warmup over the weekend after today.

2. MinRHs continue to be below 25% in the upper portions of the Sierra Nevada with some areas below 15%.

3. A moderate heat risk mid to late week next week is likely. Thursday looks to be the hottest day next week with a greater than 70% chance of a moderate heat risk.

DISCUSSION

Time for your favorite part of the day, reading the Area Forecast Discussion! Expect cooler temperatures today and a slight warmup over the weekend as the trough sneaks out and a weak ridge scares it away over the weekend. Temperatures will warm up with a 50-70 percent chance of 90s for the weekend in the Valley.

Another trough stands up and forces out the weak ridge on Monday as temperatures stay cool. Probabilities favor a stronger warming trend into the rest of next week as a ridge moves in and prevails over the trough in a tough battle. There is currently a 55-75 percent chance of highs of at least 95 degrees in the Valley on Wednesday and Friday, with Thursday being the warmest day with greater than 80 percent chance for upper 90s and a 35-50% chance for triple digits. Yay! Those wanting some more oven heat are in luck (not this forecaster). Wednesday and Friday have 40 to 60 percent chance of a Moderate Heat Risk, with chances greater than 70% Thursday. An early visit to the pumpkin patch may not be the best choice this next week. Thankfully, it is unlikely to be blowdryer heat since probabilities of 25 mph gusts remain low. Rain chances remain below 5 percent for the next seven days. The CPC continue to favor a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks with a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average precipitation, though conditions remain dry for the valley bringing low probabilities of water falling from the sky.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

AVIATION

VFR conditions prevailing for the next 24 hours.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.

IMPORTANT This is an independent project and has no affiliation with the National Weather Service or any other agency. Do not rely on this website for emergency or critical information: please visit weather.gov for the most accurate and up-to-date information available.

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