textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warm and dry Friday.

2. A low pressure system brings chances for precipitation and minor thunderstorm risks this weekend.

3. A second low pressure system approaches the area early next week.

DISCUSSION

A weak rex block is off the Pacific coast which brought drier conditions and warmer temperatures Thursday afternoon. Friday looks to be a few degrees warmer.

However, another trough slides in this weekend from Canada picking up the cutoff low that is part of the rex block. This trough brings a 20 to 40 percent chance of a tenth of an inch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday. Thunderstorm chances remain at 5 to 15 percent for the weekend into Monday. Latest snow probabilities have a 10 to 40 percent chance of 6 inches above 8,000 feet despite snow levels being forecast to be around 6,000 feet. Winds also pick up with this system as the Mojave Slopes has a 55 to 65 percent chance of wind gusts of at least 55 mph on Saturday and the Desert and Slopes over 80 percent chance of wind gusts of at least 40 mph on Sunday.

The trough slowly moves off on Monday before a shortwave moves through on Tuesday. A ridge moves in on Wednesday and will strengthen next Thursday. In the long term. the CPC has a 40 to 50 percent chance of above average temperatures and a 33 to 40 percent chance of above average temperatures in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks.

AVIATION

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours in the San Joaquin Valley.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.