textproduct: San Joaquin Valley

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will gradually warm this week and rise back to around 5 degrees above average by the middle of the week.

2. Breezy conditions take place over typical wind-prone areas including San Luis Reservoir, Lake Isabella and the Mojave Desert Slopes through this week.

DISCUSSION

We will continue in a gradual warming trend this week with dry conditions through at least the middle of the week. High temperatures remain in the 90s at the warmest valley locations today as well as the next few days, but triple digit heat is in store for much of this week in the Mojave Desert. We will be edging closer to the century mark as we progress into midweek. The best chance for triple digit heat in the San Joaquin Valley will be on Wednesday and Thursday, or at 45-55 percent for Fresno County southward and much lower chances towards Madera and Merced Counties (5-15 percent). In addition, there will be a lowering trend in humidity and overnight recovery will decline a little each night in the mountains, foothills, and higher terrain adjacent to the west side of the San Joaquin Valley.

Later this week, an uptick in monsoonal moisture occurs in the higher elevations of the Sierra Nevada, mainly Friday into next weekend. The ridge of high pressure will be centered from the Four Corners region to the Great Basin, so flow will become more south-southeasterly. On next weekend or early next week, there is a low chance for remnants of a tropical system to impact our area. Otherwise, temperatures will remain steady and relatively warm across the region.

AVIATION

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours.

AIR QUALITY ISSUES

None.

CERTAINTY

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback.

HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.