textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- After yesterday's front, look for a dry chilly day today, with a short warmup Friday...until another front moves through late in the afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend, but have little rain potential.

- The trend of a quick succession of disturbed weather persists next week, including another cold front and a coastal trough that will bring our next decent chances of rain.

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

One front through, but more to go! This evening is a bit blustery around the area, with winds of 10-15 mph along with gusts into the teens and lower 20s...as high as 30 mph down on the island. These winds should gradually taper down overnight, but things still look a bit gusty by morning particularly closer to the coast, with winds of 5-10 mph but paired with lingering gusts into the teens. The next few hours also look quite chilly, with a light freeze north of Huntsville.

We'll see winds continue to weaken through the day as weak high pressure slides across the region from Central Texas towards the North Central Gulf Coast. This sets us up for a fully sunny day, but still fairly chilly and quite dry on Thursday. Like yesterday, fuels conditions are still near normal moisture, even still above normal in localized spots. But, with underlying drought conditions, drier fuels will be able to emerge more rapidly than typical, especially in grassy areas - despite the weakening winds, the very low RH forecast would probably mean that it's another day to avoid work with things that can throw sparks and open flame, unless you're doing a professional prescribed burn that is looking for these specific conditions to achieve the desired benefit.

By Thursday evening, the high will have moved off well to our east, returning onshore flow for much of the day Friday. This will help return a modest amount of humidity to the area, though dry spots out west could still see RH briefly dip below 30 percent, so we're not getting real humid here. But, with the wind shift shutting off the cold advection machine, another mostly sunny day should help temps rise back up into the 60s to lower 70s. Warm weather lovers, don't get too attached! This bit of slightly above average temps will be cut off when our next front comes through late Friday afternoon. This puts us on track for a day Saturday that looks very much like Thursday will. Mostly sunny but chilly with some gusty north winds. Onshore flow looks to be slower to come back, more by Sunday evening, so the weekend as a whole looks like it will be a seasonably cool one - chillier than the average, but not by a significant amount, so pretty recognizable as "winter in Southeast Texas". Monday puts us on the upswing of this pendulum, with temperatures and humidity a bit higher, but ultimately will be cut short again by a front Monday night.

Now...here's where we start to see things get a little more mixed up, but one thing that will stay is a progressive pattern of disturbances, so don't expect the weather to be too stable. Indeed, that will help hold down confidence in the specifics, but the guidance seems to be settling in on a broad scenario that we can sketch out for now and flesh out in the coming days.

Without a ton of time for moisture return again, the frontal passage does not look to carry a lot of rain chances on it. But, it should be more significant than this week's fronts. I have slight chances in the area, centered more towards the coast, through Monday night and into Tuesday. But where things look more promising for rain is with the development of a coastal trough/warm front on the frontal zone left behind. As that drifts northward, we'll get more significant onshore flow and moisture return. The surface trough will also provide a focus for rainfall development, so PoPs continue to go up through the day next Wednesday into Wednesday night, before gradually tailing off Thursday. Where the best potential for rain will be is going to depend very much on how far inland this coastal trough can lift, and getting too specific on that now is far too speculative. But, for now, we have PoPs up to 30 percent even well inland.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming variable through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1143 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Strong northwesterly to northerly winds and rougher seas are occurring across the waters tonight in the wake of a cold front and a small craft advisory will persist through the night and into Thursday morning. Deeper into the day, conditions will gradually improve, with light and more variable winds by evening. Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions of the bays. Onshore winds return Thursday evening, but only briefly before the next cold front arrives Friday night. Early next week will bring continued disturbed weather, along with our next decent chances for rain.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 59 42 71 39 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 59 44 72 45 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 58 52 68 51 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ330-335.

Low Water Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-370-375.