textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in the upper 90s at times.

- Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture returns to the area. Locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mid-level high pressure over north Texas and Oklahoma will continue to have some influence over the weather today with highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and in the low 90s along the coast. The combination of heat and humidity will lead to heat index values in the 105-108F range with a few locations reaching into the 109-110F range for a few hours. Make sure to practice heat safety if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

Outside of temperatures being a touch hotter, expect similar weather conditions for Tuesday. Mid-level moisture will increase with weak vorticity maximums moving in the vicinity of SE Texas. This will result in another day of isolated to scattered showers, mostly across coastal locations and eastern counties. Any precipitation further inland would largely be dependent on outflow boundaries and/or the inland extent of the sea breeze.

Mid to late week and into the weekend will feature a more active weather pattern. We will see high pressure shift west into the California region as low pressure approaches from the east and brings a surge of moisture along with it. PWAT values will jump to the 2.1-2.3 inch range for much of SE Texas (with the exception of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods). Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected for locations along and south of I-10. North of I-10, coverage will be more isolated to scattered.

The influx of tropical moisture on Wednesday is evident on sounding profiles with a deep saturated layer. As a result, some showers and storms could produce locally heavy rainfall with rain rates of 2-3" per hour. This could lead to water ponding on roadways and flooding in low-lying areas or in areas with poor drainage.

Late week into the weekend will feature daily opportunities for showers and thunderstorms (isolated to scattered in coverage) as several mid-upper level disturbances pass overhead and the high pressure remains displaced to the west.

Temperatures through mid to late week should remain in the low to mid 90s with heat indicies in the triple digits. Lows will continue to be on the warmer side with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

Isolated showers beginning to develop offshore and have a general northward movement. Anticipating isolated showers to reach near GLS/LBX later this morning followed by increasing coverage of showers/storms in the late morning into the afternoon with daytime heating and the seabreeze moving inland. There has been enough consistency in high-resolution model guidance to warrant adding PROB30's for thunderstorms at all area terminals. Convective coverage still looks to be isolated to scattered in nature, but the trends have been for convection to make its way further inland than initially thought. The highest confidence for convective impacts still remains CXO and southward. Outside of any storms, VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with southeasterly winds between 5-10 kt.

Convection subsides after sunset and will be accompanied by a trend towards light and variable winds. Model guidance is indicating the potential for MVFR ceilings on Wednesday morning for the northern terminals, but confidence remains too low at this point to include anything more than a slight hint in this TAF package.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1048 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the end of the work week. High pressure will keep chances for showers and thunderstorms on the lower end (20-30%) for Tuesday. Look for chances to increase to 40-70% on Wednesday through the end of the week as low pressure moves into the NW Gulf and moisture surges into the area. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and strong winds of 20-30 knots will be the main hazards in and around stronger storms. Storms could also produce outflow boundaries that result in stronger and more erratic wind gusts. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 97 76 96 76 / 20 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 95 79 93 78 / 20 10 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 82 / 20 30 50 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.