textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather expected throughout the work week.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in humidity, temperatures and cloud cover (mainly overnight), eventually for some spotty/isolated, diurnally-driven showers/storms trough the weekend. Best rain and storm chances arrive next Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Fair weather remains the primary story for Southeast TX as a mid- level ridge centered over the Southern Rockies continues to dominate the regional pattern. Latest water vapor satellite imagery shows a drier airmass filtering into the area; however enough low-level moisture remains, with surface dewpoints in the 60s and low 70s to support a field of scattered fair wx Cumulus clouds this afternoon. Calm to light surface winds and residual low-level moisture will be enough to produce some fog (mainly low- lying fog) overnight into early Wednesday morning. Latest model runs show medium probabilities (30 - 50 %) of visibility as low as 5 miles for our southwestern counties.

Expect the trend of dry, warm days with temperatures slightly above normal to persist through the rest of the work-week.

The synoptic setup begins to shift late Wednesday into Thursday as the surface high slides eastward. This transition will establish a more persistent and deepened south to southeasterly flow, opening the door for a steady influx of Gulf moisture. Therefore, expect a gradual climb in afternoon highs, humidity levels and overnight cloud cover through the weekend.

By the weekend, the ridge is forecast to weaken and migrate further east, breaking down the subsidence that has kept us dry. The weekend is progged to remain relatively dry; however, this shifting pattern combined with warm conditions, increasing PWs and weak disturbances moving through the flow aloft, could lead to a few daily spotty/isolated activity.

Looking ahead to early next week, rain and storm chances will be on the increase (30 to 60%) as a stronger upper-lvl disturbance moves through.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue May 12 2026

VFR conditions throughout the TAF period. Light VRB winds this morning, becoming NE at 4-8 KTS by 15Z, then back to light and VRB tonight through early Wed morning.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1247 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Benign weather conditions with light winds and low seas are expected at least through late Thursday as high pressure system remains over the region. Typical summer pattern is anticipated with southeast winds due to seabreeze in the late afternoon/early evening and offshore winds by the landbreeze overnight/early mornings. A tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate winds and building seas Friday into the weekend. Next best rain chances return early next week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 82 63 87 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 67 89 69 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 72 84 73 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.