textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions along with overnight/morning dense fog to continue into the weekend. Temperatures will be in the vicinity of records, and a few isolated records may be tied or broken. - Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring much colder conditions early next week.

- Gale conditions possible behind the front in the Gulf waters and bays late Sunday night through Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Southeast Texas remains in the humid, holiday soup on this Christmas Day, with warm and humid conditions likely to continue into the weekend. In the mid/upper levels, our pattern continues to be dominated by a large ridge over central CONUS and a mid/upper low over eastern Mexico. The ridge has played an outsize role in keeping conditions warm. Meanwhile, the low has made sure the profile remains relatively moist (or at least not too dry), preventing the skies from becoming mostly sunny. These clouds will likely keep temperatures just below records, though I wouldn't rule out someone achieving a record today. This moist environment will also continue to favor the development of overnight / morning fog. Fog may linger near the coast into the early afternoon. Isolated afternoon showers cannot be ruled out.

The pattern changes drastically as we head into early next week. Deep ridging is replaced by deep troughing, while the prolonged onshore LL flow regime is quickly ended by a strong cold front that will push arctic air down the plains and into southeast Texas late Sunday night into Monday. This will be felt in the form of falling temperatures and gusty winds. We could even have gales over the Gulf. Rain showers are possible along and ahead of the front. We've noticed a colder trend in some of the guidance today. Given the likely ~1040MB high that will press arctic air up against the Rockies and down the plains, we should not be surprised if temperatures end up a little colder than forecast. For my Monday-Tuesday temperatures, I mixed in some 25th percentile NBM temps to skew us a little colder than the model mean. For Monday night and Tuesday night lows, this blend results in overnight lows near or just below freezing for most areas outside Houston's urban heat island and away from the coast. In the case of our northern Piney Woods zones, we have overnight lows in the mid/upper 20s! I'm a little uncertain with Monday's highs. Our current blend produces afternoon temperatures in the mid/upper 40s in our northern counties to low/mid 50s I-10 to upper 50s at the coast. But given the potential for clouds and strong CAA, I'm not going to be surprised if these temperatures need to be revised downward. 12Z ECMWF already coming in ~5 degrees colder than our current forecast for Monday afternoon. For Tuesday, the blend shows temperature struggling to reach 50. Temperatures modify by the middle of next week, with near normal temperatures expected by New Years Day.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Fog is rolling back in along the coast with IFR to LIFR conditions returning to GLS and LBX within the next couple of hours. Prevailing LIFR conditions are expected by 5-7z south of I-10 with CIGs down to 300ft and dense fog reducing visibility down to 1/2mi or less). Terminal north of I-10 should have prevailing MVFR to IFR conditions, but TEMPO periods of LIFR conditions will be possible at IAH and CXO late tonight into daybreak Friday. Conditions improve through the morning hours with MVFR conditions returning by 16z, and then VFR by 19z (but may linger at GLS into the afternoon). Another foggy night is expected Friday night.

Light southerly winds are expected through Friday morning with southwesterly winds of 5-10kt expected Friday afternoon.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Areas of fog continue to impact the bays and Gulf waters this afternoon. Visibilities have significantly improved for the most part relative to this morning. That being said, any clearing is likely to only last a few hours at most. By late this afternoon or early this evening, sea fog is expected to gradually become more widespread once again. The pattern will remain favorable for sea fog through Sunday. However, winds become more south to south- southwest on Friday into the weekend. This may help to bring longer breaks in the fog. But the confidence on this is low.

A strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night into Monday morning. Rain showers are possible along and ahead of the front. Conditions behind the front are expected to feature strong northerly winds and building seas. The risk of gale conditions continues to increase over the Gulf. Gusts to gale force are possible over the bays. Seas could top 10 feet offshore while water levels in the bays could become hazardously low by Monday or Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory level conditions could continue well into Tuesday before winds and seas improve and become less hazardous.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 65 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 81 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 72 65 72 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ335-355.