textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and storms are expected this afternoon and evening with a threat for strong winds and locally heavy rainfall.

- Hot and humid conditions with low chances for showers/storms will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Friday Night) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Water vapor imagery shows an upper disturbance spreading out of western Oklahoma into North Texas at this time with convection developing along an outflow boundary well to our north. At the surface, a quasi stationary frontal boundary draped south of the I-20 corridor will begin to sag south as a weak cold front through this afternoon. While we're not expecting any significantly cooler weather, a broad area of low level convergence will develop across southeast TX through the afternoon aided by weak forcing for ascent from the upper disturbance. This will occur during peak afternoon heating and we should see a notable uptick in convective activity across the region this afternoon and evening. While showers and thunderstorms will still remain scattered, coverage should increase to 40-60% later today.

Low and mid level flow is generally weak with 0-6km shear <15kt as indicated by the last hour of data from the HGX VAD wind profile, however mid and upper flow is forecast to strengthen a bit through the afternoon which may allow for convective updrafts to become a little more organized. Given MLCAPE increasing to 2500J/kg through peak heating and mean storm motions around 15 kt, we may see a slightly higher threat for strong winds with any storms that develop this afternoon than we would typically see in a summertime pulse type environment. GOES derived PW values between 2.1-2.3 inches across the region will support a locally heavy rainfall potential, although storm motions may keep this threat limited in area through the evening.

Convection should wind down through the late evening with loss of heating although we'll maintain some low PoPs through the overnight hours given the proximity of the weak boundary in the area. This boundary will continue to push southward into Friday with the bulk of any convection likely being offshore through the rest of the period. Temperatures will be a touch cooler today given the extra cloud cover and convective potential and should remain in the mid/upper 90s for Friday afternoon.

Dunn

LONG TERM

(Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

The mid level ridge axis will still be centered across far West Texas on Saturday but will begin to expand eastward across the Southern Plains into early next week. Meanwhile, a disturbance over the northern Gulf will move westward, undercutting the ridge a bit and spreading into Texas by Tuesday. Unfortunately it appears that the better moisture associated with this disturbance will remain primarily to the east, but weak ascent should aid an increasingly active sea breeze boundary Monday through Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures will remain fairly steady with highs in the mid to upper 90s and peak heat indices between 105-110 degrees.

Dunn

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

A scattered cloud deck continues to push south with occasional light showers popping up. Later this afternoon, chances for rain increase area-wide, and thunderstorms are expected to move through the area from about 20-24Z this afternoon/evening. Another round of lingering thunderstorms is possible from 0-3Z, especially for terminals IAH and northward, however, confidence in this second round of storms initializing is lower. Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing strong variable wind gusts. Convective activity should die off by tonight, and winds become light and variable. Tomorrow morning, localized reductions in VIS are possible, mainly for sites CXO and northward. Across all sites, some FEW and SCT MVFR level decks are possible overnight and into the early morning hours.VFR conditions return by about 15Z tomorrow and persist through the afternoon.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Morning convection has largely diminished across the coastal water at this time with south-southwest flow 5-10 kt expected through the afternoon. A weak frontal boundary will slide southward later today with northerly flow 5-10 kt expected tonight into Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage late this afternoon through late evening with gusty winds and locally higher seas expected. Onshore flow will resume late Friday and continue into the weekend with seas generally 1-2 feet.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 97 / 20 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 97 / 50 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 82 90 / 40 30 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.