textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return today and Saturday as moisture levels increase and a few upper level disturbances pass through.

- The next chances for rain/storm will arrive early next week along and ahead of a cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

A parade of mid-level shortwave/vort maxima embedded in the southwesterly flow aloft will continue to move north-northeast across central TX tonight. While some drier air persists at the 700:850 hPa layer, a few light/spotty showers will be possible over the Brazos Valley and southwestern counties. PW values will be on the increase from southwest to northeast today and Saturday, with values peaking in the 1.6 to 2.0 inch range. Increasing moisture, combined with passing mid-level shortwaves will keep rain chances in the forecast. The best chances remain for areas west of I-45 and south of I-10, mainly in the afternoon due to the combination of peak daytime heating.

Showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage late tonight into Saturday as the enhanced area of increased moisture and vort maxes move overhead and to our northeast. This scattered to widespread activity should gradually diminish by early evening, so the evening trick-or-treating forecast looks rain-free for most areas. A weak mid to upper lvl ridge builds Sunday into Monday, resulting in only slight rain chances and warmer conditions with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

A deepening upper trough will move over the western CONUS over the weekend, moving eastward across the Plains on Monday. While the evolution of this system still differs run to run, guidance shows better agreement on the timing of the associated surface cold front. As of the latest analysis, the FROPA is progged to move through on Tuesday, reaching the coastal waters Tuesday night into Wednesday. Given the high uncertainty in the evolution and phasing of this trough, confidence in specific details regarding any thunderstorm/severe weather potential remains low. Will continue to monitor over the weekend as more hi-res guidance arrives and clearer details emerge with the forecast. Behind the FROPA, drier and slightly cooler conditions will filter in with near-normal temperatures for this time of year.

JM

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Winds have reduced to LGT and VRB as the overnight progresses and VFR conditions prevail. Winds increase by mid morning between 5- 10kts out of the ESE. Isolated to scattered showers are possible through the day with the best chances for areas mainly S of I-10 and west of I-45. A few thunderstorms will be possible but confidence is low to mention it in TAFs. Outside of any temporary MVFR conditions from showers/storms, VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Timing and coverage continue to remain uncertain and will be monitored.

CMW

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Light to occasionally moderate easterly to southeasterly flow and seas in the 2 to 4 ft range will continue across the Upper TX coast today and Saturday. A few passing disturbances will result in isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms through the weekend, with the best chances late tonight into Saturday. Winds will become more southeasterly early next week, before the arrival of the next cold front sometime in the Tuesday to Wednesday time frame. Will continue to monitor conditions next week as elevated winds and building seas will be possible ahead of and along the FROPA. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 63 78 63 81 / 20 40 40 40 Houston (IAH) 65 80 67 82 / 10 30 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 71 77 70 79 / 10 40 40 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.