textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A stalled cold front near the coast will continue isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity through Sunday morning, but coverage/intensity will be less than Saturday's storms.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of strong storms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as a cold front pushes through the area.

- A return to more seasonal temperatures for the second half of the week following the cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A slow moving cold front brought widespread 0.5 to 1.5" of rain for areas along and north of I-10 yesterday with the areas near the City of Houston receiving 3-5" of rain (as per KHGX storm total accumulations). Areas south of I-10 received mostly just up to 0.2", but a training line of storms near Alvin up through Wallisville did produce a swath of around 1.5-3". The cold front will be stalling near the coast through Sunday morning, continuing the potential for scattered shower and thunderstorms. Expecting mostly a lull in the activity during the overnight hours, but then increasing coverage by daybreak that persists into the afternoon. The front is expected to retreat northwards Sunday evening into Sunday night returning increased humidity and southerly winds across SE Texas. A weak shortwave passing overhead may trigger some additional showers and thunderstorms on Monday, but our main focus for this week will be the expected strong cold front that will push through the region Tuesday night into Wednesday. There will be nightly patchy, dense fog along the coast until the cold front pushes through.

This front will be associated with a large upper-level low that will be sliding through Baja California Monday into Tuesday morning, then through the Southern Plains Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is still some uncertainty on the exact timing of this FROPA in SE Texas as it could be as early as Tuesday night or as late as Wednesday afternoon. With a strong temperature gradient across the cold front, a strong high pressure building in behind the system, and a progressive upper-level pattern, I am thinking a FROPA on the earlier side of the that range will be most likely (Tuesday night). We are monitoring for the potential of strong to severe storms developing ahead of and along the cold front, with SPC having a 15% chance of severe storms just to our north - which is equivalent to a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5). Gusty northerly winds are expected behind the front Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning, especially along the coast. But, then the rest of the week will be rather pleasant with high pressure overhead.

Temperatures today will largely be determined by where exact the boundary ends up stalling, and how quickly it retreats back north. As of now, looking like high temperatures in the low to mid 70s across the area with the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods near 70. A return to highs in the low to mid 80s are expected Monday and Tuesday as southerly flow returns and WAA increasing ahead of the approaching cold front. Wednesday will be a day of transition with temperatures largely dependent on the speed of the FROPA: could be in the mid-80s with a slow cold front, or down into the mid-70s with a faster cold front. A return to near seasonal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday with highs in the upper 60s to mid-70s.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A slow moving cold front is in the process of pushing through the Houston area towards the coast. Model guidance is divided on how conditions will evolve tonight. The broader picture suggests that the front should stall in the vicinity of KHOU/GLS with activity waning to mostly light showers for some period overnight. CIGs should also deteriorate overnight to MVFR/IFR levels and LIFR near the coast. LAMP guidance continues to suggest another period of sea fog in the mist of all this, and given how yesterday unfolded there is a good shot we see visibility drop to 1SM or less for periods of the night ad KGLS. Model guidance also shows another uptick in showers and thunderstorms during the early morning hours of Sunday south of I-10 around where the front should be in some models, thus decided to maintain some of those PROB30 groups for thunder. Rain chances decrease and CIGs improve Sunday afternoon.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible through Sunday afternoon as a stalled boundary lingers near the coast before retreating back north Sunday night. Another round of showers and thunderstorms, potentially strong, is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday as a strong cold front pushes through the region.

Before this front, expect onshore winds around 10-15kt with seas around 2-4ft. There will also be continued nightly chances of patchy, dense fog lingering in the southern portions of Galveston Bay and the nearshore waters. After the frontal passage midweek, expect strong offshore winds (with gusts to 30-35kt) to develop with building seas Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This front will bring drier air over the coastal waters, bringing a break to the nightly sea fog. However, onshore flow returns by next weekend, so will need to monitor if fog returns then.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 56 69 61 83 / 60 20 10 30 Houston (IAH) 66 74 69 83 / 80 40 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 67 71 68 75 / 50 50 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ335-355.