textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Heat Advisory in effect for our southern counties (including the City of Houston) through early this evening. - Frontal boundary may bring isolated showers/storms this afternoon and evening.

- While a drop in humidity is expected on Sunday, hot conditions are expected with highs in the upper 90s to near 100. Even hotter on Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

A weak cool front is at our doorstep early this afternoon. Latest radar and sfc obs place the boundary extending between Waco and College Stn areas as of early this afternoon. A few showers and perhaps some lightning strikes can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours as the front slowly sags southward into the region. This is a very weak and very slow-moving boundary overall. Current forecast suggests it will slowly move over the Houston metro area overnight before settling along the coast by early Sunday morning, where it will likely meander or even wash out over the coastal waters during the day.

The primary impact from this FROPA will be a temporary drop in humidity as drier air filters in from the north. Inland sfc dewpoints are forecast to drop into the low 60s to low 70s throughout the day on Sunday. Consequently, expect a dry heat across most inland locations with high temps climbing into the upper 90s to near 100F. A bit of a different story is expected along the coast, however. Dewpoint values there will remain in the mid to upper 70s, keeping conditions more humid with peak heat indices reaching up to 107F. Given the close proximity of the boundary near the coast on Sunday combined with daytime heating, have maintained low-end PoPs for our southwestern counties and coastal zones through the afternoon.

Upper lvl ridging builds back into the region by Monday, setting up a return to southerly flow at the surface. In other words, hot and humid conditions return with Monday's highs in the upper 90s to near 102F. Beyond Tuesday, the weather pattern settles into a more typical, near-seasonal summertime regime. Expect diurnally-driven, isolated showers and storms primarily driven by the daily seabreeze, mainly in the each afternoons after Thursday.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 AM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Cluster of showers is currently moving southward towards our northern terminals ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. This band of showers is expected to dissipate before it makes it to the Houston metro terminals. Additionally, low-end MVFR ceilings are ongoing across the northern terminals (CXO and northward) and will likely persist through 15Z. Can't rule out brief MVFR ceilings at IAH this morning.

High resolution model guidance has trended drier for this afternoon. However, given that showers are already developing up north, have decided to keep the PROB30's for showers in the afternoon for IAH and northward. Further south, confidence remains too low to include any SH mentions. A stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out either for sites with the PROB30's. Winds will start out southwesterly this morning around 8-12 kt with occasional gusts of 15-20 kt possible this afternoon. Winds will become light and northerly behind the front.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

South to southwest winds will gradually strengthen this afternoon and evening ahead of an approaching cool front. Building seas are also anticipated, mostly remaining up to 5 ft, occasionally higher offshore. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for Galveston Bay and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport through early Sunday. The FROPA is expected to reach the bays and coastal waters late tonight into Sunday morning. While a brief wind shift to the north-northwest will be possible over the bays and nearshore, the boundary will meander near the coast through the day; therefore, onshore winds will mainly prevail. A few showers and storms will be possible this evening and then again Sunday afternoon, depending on the final position of the FROPA. Beyond Sunday, dry and hot weather is expected with light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds and seas around 2 to 3ft, occasionally up to 4 ft next weekend.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 98 74 100 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 99 77 101 / 10 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 93 82 94 / 20 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ200-213-214-226- 227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Sunday for GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday morning for GMZ375.