textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Offshore convection will continue through this afternoon with scattered inland showers/storms mainly south of I-10. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall are the main threats.

- Hot and humid conditions with low chances for showers/storms will continue into next week.

SHORT TERM

(This afternoon through Saturday Night) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Water vapor imagery and GOES derived PW imagery indicate the presence of drier mid level air spreading in from the north in the wake of a weak disturbance moving into Louisiana. This should continue into the afternoon, however an axis of higher theta-e air resides along and south of I-10 currently and this is expected to remain in place into the evening hours. While weak forcing for ascent associated with the disturbance will likely be present into the afternoon, additional convection will largely be driven by low level moisture convergence during peak afternoon heating. Forecast soundings are similar to yesterday with weak deep layer wind fields and steep low level lapse rates. This will support an isolated strong wind threat with any storms this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall will also be a threat although storm motions should be sufficiently fast to inhibit a more substantial threat for flooding.

Coverage of showers and storms will diminish after dark with continued northerly flow aloft shunting better moisture farther south, although some offshore convection may continue through the overnight hours. A notable drop in deep layer moisture content is forecast for Saturday, particularly north of I-10 and additional convective chances will be tied to the sea breeze where PoPs will generally be 20% or less. High temperatures will typically run in the mid/upper 90s inland with lower 90s along the coast both this afternoon and again Saturday. Slightly drier air north of I-10 will keep heat indices around 105 both days.

Dunn

LONG TERM

(Sunday through next Thursday) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

The latter half of the weekend will continue to feature relatively warm and humid conditions as mid level ridging over West Texas expands eastward. Afternoon convective chances will be largely tied to the sea breeze with PoPs 10-20% on Sunday and Monday. An upper level disturbance will undercut the southern periphery of the expanding ridge early next week as deep layer moisture increases again. This should result in an uptick in coverage of afternoon showers/storms, particularly on Tuesday and Wednesday. No significant deviations in afternoon highs/heat indices are expected through the middle of next week with readings in the mid/upper 90s and heat index values around 105 degrees.

Dunn

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Current VFR conditions expected to prevail until the 20Z to 24Z period. TSRA used for the southern TAF sites to account for enhanced forcing between a coastal front and the sea breeze. Models more uncertain with storms north of I-10, but current trends point toward TS forming closer to CXO and IAH, warranting a -TSRA for those sites and the use of -SHRA for the remaining northern sites. Any TSRA that do form could bring reduced vis, cig, and strong gusts. Beyond 24Z, winds become light and VRB, leading to possible pathcy fog and lowered cigs.

JMG

MARINE

Issued at 1248 PM CDT Fri Aug 28 2026

Sporadic afternoon convection is expected across the offshore waters today and again on Saturday with southerly winds generally 10 kt or less outside of convective areas. Onshore flow 5-10 kt is expected to continue through the weekend and into next week with low chances for showers and thunderstorms. Seas will generally run 1 to 3 feet through the period although strengthing winds and locally higher seas are expected toward the middle part of next week.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 99 75 97 / 10 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 98 78 97 / 30 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 83 91 / 20 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.