textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening through very early Sunday. - Next week's outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions with isolated afternoon showers and storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Summer persists in Southeast Texas as hot and humid conditions continue thanks to high pressure and abundant sunshine. Temperatures this afternoon have rising into the mid 90s for much of the region with heat indices in the 100-105 degree range. Another warm and muggy night is expected tonight, but then on Saturday I have something to discuss that isn't just high pressure and heat. An upper-level disturbance moving through the Midwest will push a weak "cold" front into Southeast Texas tomorrow into tomorrow night. Because the front is so weak, exact FROPA timing is still uncertain - but it will likely be in the late afternoon into the evening hours from north to south. Isolated showers will begin to pop up across the Piney Woods region as early as the morning hours as the front approaches from the north. By the afternoon and into the evening hours, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop-up down along the I-10 corridor and the coast. Severe thunderstorms are not expected, but gusty winds and a localized downpour will always be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

High temperatures on Saturday will likely be limited by increasing cloud coverage and any showers or thunderstorms that develop. But, we will likely still see temperatures rising into the mid to upper 90s across the region with heat indices in the triple digits. Have opted out of issuing any Heat Advisories for tomorrow due to the uncertainty of the FROPA timing - but, there is a possibility that areas along and south of I-10 will approach Heat Advisory thresholds if the FROPA is later than expected.

This "cold" front will really not bring in any cooler weather - in fact temperatures may even be a degree to two hotter on Sunday than tomorrow. This is because while cooler air won't be filtering in, drier air will be allowing for warmer ambient temperatures. Hot weather will continue through the remainder of the week with Monday likely being the hottest day of the week with high temperatures nearing 100 degrees.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 657 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

A weak cold front will attempt to move through the terminals Saturday afternoon, bringing rain and storm chances for most terminals. A few -SHRA are possible near KCLL and KUTS around 11Z- 13Z, with the best chances (20 - 35%) in the afternoon. Confidence in SHRA/TSRA for terminals from IAH coastward is low; therefore, have only included PROB30 from mid afternoon through early evening for this forecast package. Light to occasionally moderate WSW winds will prevail Saturday. Overall, expect SCT to BKN mid to high clouds, with FEW/SCT low clouds possible early Saturday. Outside of any TSRA, VFR conditions can be expected through the period.

JM

MARINE

Issued at 212 PM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

South to southwesterly winds around 10-15kt will persist through Saturday morning with low seas. An approaching front will lead to a strengthening of the winds Saturday afternoon into Saturday night to around 15-20kt, so small craft will likely need to exercise caution. Seas will increase to around 2-4ft Saturday night into Sunday morning following the increasing winds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm will be possible Saturday evening into Saturday night as the front approaches the coastal waters, but chances are pretty low (below 20%). A more west-southwesterly wind will be possible on Sunday following the front.

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through next week with low seas.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 97 75 99 / 0 40 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 99 80 100 / 0 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 94 82 93 / 0 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.