textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry, with temperatures well-above average through the next several days. - Persistent southerly flow could lead to the development of fog and low clouds for the next several nights.

- Cooler temperatures are possible this upcoming weekend with the passage of a dry cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

A weak cold front is expected to move southward across central TX tonight and stall near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. This will lead to low temperatures in the upper 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region while the rest of Southeast TX remains in the lower 60s. Skies will become partly cloudy to cloudy tonight and areas of patchy to dense fog will develop through the early morning hours as winds relax to 5 mph or less. The fog could affect the early morning commute before it begins to burn off shortly after sunrise.

Yesterday, the models had the cold front stalling north Brazos Valley; however, they now have the front stalled over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. Because of the slightly southward shift of the frontal boundary, the aforementioned region could see cooler daytime temperatures on Monday. The latest NBM run has high temperatures in the lower 80s for that region, while the rest of Southeast TX remains in the mid to upper 80s inland and the upper 70s along the coast. Skies will be mostly sunny to partly cloudy and winds will be southwesterly at around 5 mph.

The cold front is expected to lift northward Monday night into early Tuesday. Light winds will prevail Monday night and low temperatures will be in the lower 60s inland and the mid 60s over the Houston metro area and the coasts. We will once again have very low temperature and dewpoint spreads overnight and with light winds in place, we will likely see patchy to possibly dense fog developing over portions of Southeast TX once again.

By mid week, a mid-level high over northwestern Mexico will strengthen and progress east into northern Mexico and western TX. This will keep a stable and dry weather pattern as well as rise our high temperatures into the upper 80s to possibly lower 90s by Thursday. Although it is too early to know for certain, the GFS and ECMWF are hinting at a possible cold frontal passage sometime during the end of the week or the early weekend period. There are some inconsistencies with the timing of the front, but we are at least seeing slightly cooler temperatures for the upcoming weekend.

Cotto

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Seeing conditions ranging from VFR all the way down to LIFR across the area this morning, with a good area of dense fog notable on satellite building in from the west. Expect many terminals to continue seeing IFR to LIFR vis and ceilings until this area of fog begins to burn off after 13z as the sun rises. VFR conditions will return later this morning and last through the remainder of the day with notably less gusty winds than yesterday. Monday night into Tuesday morning may see similar conditions return once again.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026

Light east to southeast winds are expected on Monday as a weak cold front stalls over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region. Light southeasterly winds and seas of 1-3 feet are expected for the rest of the work week. Conditions will remain dry for the rest of the forecast period. Areas of patchy sea fog is possible over the bays and adjacent nearshore waters during the next few days generally between the evening to mid-morning hours.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 60 86 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 64 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 67 77 67 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.