textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and windy this evening and overnight, with the strongest gusts along the coast and over the Gulf waters.

- Slightly cooler conditions Sunday and Monday. Near freezing low temperatures possible Sunday night into Monday.

- A warming trend is expected after Tuesday with highs generally into the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

We'll finally start to see more sun than clouds after the passage of today's cold front. Early this afternoon, the front extended along and north of a line from Palacios (PSX), Angleton (LBX) and Beaumont(BPT); it will continue to move off the coast over the next couple of hours. A drier airmass, accompanied by strong north winds will begin to filter in behind the front. Gusts as high as 25 to 30 mph are expected this evening and tonight with the strongest gusts occurring along the beaches and over coastal waters.

In addition to the windy conditions, we continue to monitor fire weather. With afternoon relative humidity dropping into the 20% to 30% range, a moderate to high fire danger is possible; particularly across our western counties through this evening. Cold air advection and mostly clear skies will result in a chilly night. Lows will generally range from the upper 30s (far inland) to the upper 40s (Houston metro and coastal zones).

An upper level ridge is building across the Rockies/Plains, while surface high pressure builds over TX through early next week, bringing drier and more pleasant conditions. Plenty of sunshine,low humidity and breezy north winds are on tap for the region on Sunday with highs mainly in the mid 60s. A similar forecast is anticipated for Monday, though winds will remain lighter.

Return flow from the departing high will bring temperatures back to near seasonal levels by Tuesday. A warming trend is expected for the remainder of the week as the upper ridge breaks down, pushing an upper wave across the Midwest and Great Lakes region; and developing surface lee cyclogenesis across southern Plains. This pattern will keep the region under as southerly surface winds regime, resulting in warmer conditions and an uptick in Gulf moisture through the end of the week. A FROPA will be possible toward the end of the week; however, confidence in precipitation chances remain moderate as higher chances fall further northeast of the area. As of now, the forecast remains dry for the rest of the long-term period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Front has made it through CLL, and making its way through UTS as winds there are shifting and VSBY beginning to improve. First several hours handle the front pushing its way through the remaining terminals, with onshore winds and fog ahead of it. Once front is through, improvement begins first gradually, then rapidly goes to high VFR mid-day/early afternoon across the area.

Back half of the TAF handles increasing north winds, with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts into the middle 20s for most terminals. GLS is a noted example as fetch off Galveston Bay will allow for winds to exceed 20 kts with gusts above 30 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 144 PM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A cold front will be move across the Gulf waters this afternoon and evening, ushering in strong northerly winds in its wake. Gusts of approximately 25 to 35 kt can be expected from this evening through early Sunday. A Gale Warning is in effect for Matagorda Bay and all Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for Galveston Bay where gusts up to 30 kts are expected. While near gale-force gusts cannot be ruled out across Galveston Bay, winds should remain between 20 to 30 knots most of the time. In addition to the wind, building seas from 5 to 10 ft (occasionally higher) can be expected through Sunday. Winds will gradually weaken by Sunday as high pressure builds over Texas. We'll continue to monitor water levels across the bays as P-ETSS suggests levels near -0.5 MLLW during low tides through Monday. Onshore winds return by Tuesday as the high pressure shifts to our east. Winds may become moderate to strong at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 39 62 35 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 46 64 41 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 51 63 47 / 20 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ335.