textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch remains in effect for portions of Southeast Texas.

- Piney Woods area and the axis from Houston County-Liberty County area will be most at risk for significant flooding. - Scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible on a daily basis for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Beginning to see nocturnal precip re-consolidation around the TD Edouard circulation near the Piney Woods. Guidance is in good agreement that some of our northeast zones up toward the Houston County region could receive some significant/impactful rains adding up in the next 12 hours or so...with some guidance pointing toward some 6"+ in that particular region. Flash Flooding is a significant concern there. Also fairly concerned about our already hard hit areas (Liberty-San Jac- Polk- Trinity Co's) in the 4am-noon timeframe if we see additional south-north banding set back up over those same areas as some guidance suggests. The ground is saturated there, and even some relatively puny cells could cause runoff and flood issues considering the low flash flood guidance values (less than 0.5"hr at some locations).

Edouard and its remnants should eventually track to our nnw and become absorbed into the mean flow. But lingering high PW's, daytime heating, and potential seabreeze will allow for scattered convection across the remainder of the region today. Have extended the existing Flood Watch (minus Harris & Waller Co) thru 1pm today so we can monitor trends then re-configure or expire. Even though some counties have been dropped and/or are not included in the watch, high rain rates still remain a possibility...albeit the flash flood threat should be more localized versus widespread.

Though we'll be losing the Edoaurd's llvl circulation...a mid level weakness/low will remain trapped in the vicinity for the next several days which should allow scattered, diurnally driven activity across the area through at least the weekend. Overall coverage will be dependent on fluctuations higher/lower PW values. Ridging to the north should eventually nudge this weakness far enough south early-mid next week whereas the coastal seabreeze might be the only player left.

In terms of temps, looking for readings near-slightly below seasonable norms to trend back up to normal-slightly above normal as the days progress. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Broadly speaking, VFR conditions and light winds should prevail through the majority of the period (with a few exceptions). Widespread precipitation ongoing across the Piney Woods early this morning will some scattered banding precip beginning to set up further south-southwest. The activity over the Piney Woods should gradually transition westward toward the UTS/CLL terminals during the day. Suspect mostly light-moderate rain, with maybe some embedded heavier downpours at times. Further south toward the metro airports, they'll probably see better chances of some embedded tstms as we get some daytime heating and throw boundary interactions into play. Overall coverage might not be as impressive overall compared to the activity further north, but that'll be the place to look for some isolated strong cells. Activity should wane areawide with the loss of heating, but let's keep an eye on possible sct shra redevelopment around CLL after 8z and the typical seasonal activity near the coast Friday morning.

47

MARINE

Issued at 118 AM CDT Thu Sep 3 2026

Onshore winds will prevail along with 2 to 4 foot seas for the next couple days. Speeds will generally be highest at night offshore and during the late afternoon and evening in the bays. Pressure gradient loosens up in a few days which should allow for a corresponding drop in winds/seas. With abundant moisture levels in place, look for some scattered showers and thunderstorms on a daily basis. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 91 75 91 74 / 40 40 40 20 Houston (IAH) 89 77 92 76 / 60 20 40 20 Galveston (GLS) 91 82 90 82 / 40 20 40 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179- 196-198>200-300.

GM...None.