textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A strong heat dome over the Southwest will keep conditions dry, with temperatures well-above average through the next several days. - Persistent southerly flow could lead to the development of fog and low clouds for the next several nights.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Dry conditions will prevail tonight with low temperatures in the lower 60s inland and the mid to upper 60s over the Houston Metro and the coastal areas. There is the chance for patchy fog to develop during the overnight into early morning hours, however, south to southwesterly winds may be strong enough to inhibit its formation. Fog will most likely develop over areas with winds at 5 mph or less, which seems to be more likely as we near sunrise on Sunday. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off shortly after sunrise.

Another tranquil and warm day is in store for Sunday with skies becoming mostly sunny by the early afternoon hours. Although temperatures will remain well-above average, the highs look to be a few degrees lower. This is in response to the mid-level high beginning to shift westward into Baja California and northern Mexico as a mid-upper level low over the western Gulf shifts slightly north. We will also have slightly drier air moving in from the Gulf. Therefore, expect highs to be closer to the mid to upper 80s range inland and the mid 70s range along the immediate coast. The pressure gradient will tighten throughout the day as a cold front moves southward across northern TX. Expect somewhat breezy conditions in the afternoon as winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts of around 20 mph on occasion.

The potential for fog will rise late Sunday night into early Monday morning as southeasterly winds relax to 5 mph or less. Areas of dense fog is possible and could affect the morning commute. Drier air will remain over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region and could lead to low temperatures in the upper 50s, while the rest of Southeast TX remains in the lower 60s.

The cold front is expected to stall to our north on Monday, thus, we will not be getting much of a relief from the heat except for the Piney Woods area where highs will be closer to the lower 80s. For the rest of the inland portions, the highs are likely to remain in the mid to upper 80s. For the overnight hours, the lows will remain in the 60s and we will continue to have the potential for fog. Similar conditions are expected on Tuesday.

By mid week, the high will strengthen again and progress east closer into northern Mexico and western TX. This will continue to provide subsidence, and thus, dry conditions. It will also rise our high temperatures back into the upper 80s to lower 90s range. Sadness. It's too early to know for certain, but a few models are starting to hint at a cold front possibly pushing through Southeast TX sometime during the upcoming weekend and may lead to cooler conditions.

Cotto

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 709 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026

VFR conditions on going at all sites this evening. MVFR CIGs expected around 09Z for CXO and terminals south of CXO. Patchy fog also possible at southern terminals during the early morning hours. Winds will increase out of the SSW during the morning into the afternoon hours with gusts to around 24 knots. As winds increase, cloud cover will become more scattered with VFR levels returning by the afternoon. Winds expected to become light out of the south during the evening hours; however, occasional gusts to around 25 knots will be possible at IAH/HOU terminals.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected through the rest of the weekend. Light southeasterly winds are then expected Monday through the end of the work week, along with seas of 1-3 feet. A mid-level low over the western Gulf could bring a few showers over the offshore coastal waters Sunday night into Monday. Conditions will remain dry for the rest of the forecast period. Areas of patchy sea fog is possible over the bays and adjacent nearshore waters during the next few days generally between the evening to late morning hours.

Cotto

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026

We will need to maintain a close watch on the fire weather conditions on Sunday, in particular during the afternoon hours as afternoon RH values drop in the 30-40 percent range and southerly winds increase to 10-15 mph with gusts of up to 20 mph. Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 59 86 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 86 65 87 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 76 67 76 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.