textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through Friday morning for Gulf- facing beaches. Rip Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding from Sunday night through around Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Friday through the first half of the weekend is still a persistence forecast squarely focused on heat due to subtropical ridging aloft. Heights within the midlevel ridge aloft are still forecast to be around 590-593 dam, within the 80-95th climatological percentile for this time of the year. Subsidence from this ridge should inhibit storm development to a degree, though isolated rain chances remain, especially during the early morning and afternoon hours. For today specifically, CAMs are looking much more optimistic on convection, mainly as the remnants of a weak backdoor boundary are progged to push into the area from the northeast. HREF paintballs suggests better chances for thunderstorms generally north of the Houston areas across the Brazos Valley/Piney Wood areas, though I wouldn't fully rule out thunderstorms elsewhere. Highs are forecasted to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with lows in the 70s to lower 80s (21-27 Celsius). Afternoon dewpoints are still anticipated to remain in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) each day. As a result, heat indices and "feels-like" temperatures are forecasted to reach 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) over these next few days. WBGT heat stress is forecasted to be high, though some hot spots could see isolated pockets of Extreme heat stress during portions of the afternoon, as we saw yesterday. Sensitive groups or those not acclimated to the summer weather of Houston will be especially at risk of experiencing heat illness. If you plan to spend time outdoors, again, make sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

If you have any beach plans within the next 7 days, make sure to watch out for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur.

The weather pattern will begin to shift on Sunday into next week as a mid/upper level trough digs into the Plains. This feature is still expected to shove the subtropical ridge further south, lowering heights over SE Texas. Though, the ridge will remain fairly potent throughout the daytime on Sunday, keeping one more day of hot weather in place. Still mostly a persistence forecast in all but rain chances, so anticipate more upper 80s/lower 90s temps and triple digit heat indicies.

That night, the cold front associated with the trough will be making it's way south towards SE Texas. Ahead of the FROPA, PWs are progged to surge to 2.0-2.3 inches as shortwave energy pushes in aloft as well. Forecast soundings ahead of the front early on Monday become saturated, featuring a skinny CAPE profiles with weak corfidi upshear winds, in addition to the typical deep warm cloud layer. Model guidance shows the cold front stalling out over SE Texas. Too early to say where specifically, but wherever it does stall, it'll focus convection and amplify showers/storms along the boundary. ECMWF EFI values for QPF are forecasted to range form 0.6-0.8 with SoT values nearing 1 further NE of our area, providing some more credence to greater rainfall potential early in the week. WPC has SE Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall Sunday night, increasing to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) on Monday of next week. The heavy rainfall threat also looks to continue through portions of Tuesday before tapering off into Wednesday as the frontal boundary lifts north. Rainfall totals late Sunday through Tuesday are forecasted to range from around 1-3 inches though higher amounts to around 5 inches cannot be ruled out. While soil moisture is fairly dry, heavy rains over a short period could still result in flash flooding, especially if this rainfall occurs over urban/low lying areas. The specifics of the heavy rainfall threat may change these next few days, so stay tuned for further updates.

Cooler weather and daily rain chances are expected Wednesday through the end of the work week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Southeasterly winds remain in the 10-15KT range at all sites to start this TAF period, with occasional gusts around 20KT included at some sites. Gusts drop off and winds will gradually lower overnight while veering to the SSE. In the overnight and early morning hours, an MVFR deck is forecast to move in from the east, lowering CIGS at sites generally north of I-10. Persistence forecasting hints that sites south of I-10 may see some off and on MVFR CIGS during this time frame, though confidence is lower. Some models hint at an area IFR CIGS at KCLL and KUTS during the overnight and early morning hours as well. CIGS are expected to lift and scatter out by mid morning. Winds gradually build back to around 10KT and shift back to southeasterly by tomorrow afternoon. A couple of short-lived showers could effect areas along and around I-10 tomorrow afternoon, with PoPs of 15-20%.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 1144 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags may be warranted at times over the next few days, especially this weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising over the weekend into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 93 77 93 76 / 20 10 20 10 Houston (IAH) 92 78 92 77 / 10 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 82 88 82 / 10 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CDT Friday for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.