textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s by this weekend.

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over portions of the area Friday afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle part of next week, with at least isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Warm and humid conditions persist this afternoon with partly to mostly cloudy skies underneath weak ridging aloft. An isolated shower or thunderstorm cannot be entirely ruled out this afternoon into early this evening, but the overall lack of lift will support keeping POPs below 10 percent. Overnight low temperatures are forecast to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the most part except in the mid 70s along the immediate coast.

The mid level flow pattern transitions more zonal on Friday. Weak shortwave impulses embedded within the westerly flow aloft will move across our forecast area Friday afternoon into early Friday evening. Weak ascent associated with these disturbances along with sufficient daytime heating and instability will aid in the development of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon/early evening hours. It appears the most favorable location for scattered storm development will be over portions of the Piney Woods where POPs up to around 30 percent have been placed. We kept POPs more in the isolated coverage (15-20 percent) range over most of the rest of the forecast area Friday. Moderate afternoon/early evening instability along with sufficient deep layer shear will support a few organized storms Friday afternoon/evening. SPC has maintained a Marginal (Level 1 of 5) Risk of severe storms over much of the area Friday. The primary concerns would be large hail and damaging wind gusts with any isolated severe convection that develops. Another warm/humid day can otherwise be expected with highs in the lower to mid 80s. Storms generally look to diminish in coverage by mid to late evening. Zonal flow aloft looks to continue over the region through the weekend. Another weak shortwave impulse will translate over the area Saturday afternoon and evening, which could aid in the development of at least isolated showers/storms over the area, though coverage currently looks to be 10 percent or less. Any storm that does develop could become strong with hail/gusty winds given available instability and 30-35 knots of deep layer shear. Temperatures otherwise continue to increase this weekend, with readings approaching the upper 80s to lower 90s over interior areas and lower to mid 80s along the coast.

Above normal temperatures along with persistent southerly surface flow and associated humid conditions look to continue through the early to middle part of next week. At least isolated afternoon/ evening showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day given moist W-SW flow aloft. Storm chances might become more favored over northern portions of the region Tuesday into Wednesday as a front potentially approaches the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning with a few spots intermittently dropping to IFR will give way to VFR ceilings later this morning by 17Z. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon, but mainly east of I-45. The probability of convection is too low for mentions in any of the TAFs. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to filter in from south to north this evening and into Friday morning. Winds remain elevated through the overnight hours, so fog potential will likely be inhibited.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the latter half of the week. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 70 86 70 89 / 0 20 20 10 Houston (IAH) 72 86 73 89 / 0 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 81 74 83 / 0 10 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.