textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Mostly cloudy, warm, muggy, and breezy conditions this afternoon.

- Next weather system and associated band of storms push across the region overnight into Wednesday followed by cooler, breezy, and seasonal conditions to end the work week.

- Some hazardous marine conditions mariners and Spring Breaker's should be aware of: some fog tonight, rip currents & building surf Tue-Wed, moderate to strong north winds Wed night and Thurs (typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds). - Monitoring the potential for another cold front going into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A mid/upper level low currently positioned over Western Mexico/Southern Four Corners will bring inclement weather to SE Texas through the later half of the world week. We're already seeing some of this in the form of light showers across the northern tier of counties this afternoon. PWs are generally around 1.4-1.8 inches, though CAMs have these values progged to reach nearly 2.0 inches or more in the afternoon, with the primary moisture axis again focused over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. Still, there's a layer of drier around 850-700mb which is limiting some of the precipitation making it to the surface. Still, with ample shortwave energy kicking out of the main trough and an 850mb 30-35 knot LLJ in place, rain chances overall should be on the rise later tonight. Instability and shear will be sufficient for some stronger, possibly severe storms this afternoon, mainly across our northern counties. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) clipping these northern counties this afternoon with a Slight Risk (level 2/5) near our doorstep. All severe hazards are on the table with these storms, and while conditions favor keeping activity north of our area for the time being, I wouldn't fully rule out the potential for getting clipped by a stronger storm or two. Otherwise, cloudy weather continues through the rest of the afternoon with highs topping out in the mid 70s/upper 80s.

Onshore flow begins to strengthen this evening as the 850mb LLJ reaches 40-55 knots, the strongest winds of which again are anticipated over the northern 1/3 of our CWA overnight. An MCS will also fire up across the central Texas with convection spanning from the Bend to the Red River Valley. Activity should propagate eastward overnight following the low aloft, though CAMs show a lull in this activity during the early morning hours of Wednesday as the system approaches SE Texas. Partially due to waning instability overnight, but also due to the region of diffluence and updraft helicity tracking NE and staying largely north of the area during this period. We'll still probably see some showers and storms overnight into early Wednesday, though the main window for storms and severe weather should come later.

Greater storm coverage and intensity is generally expected late Wednesday morning through the afternoon/evening as the low aloft digs through SE Texas. Our region will have around 35-50knots of 6km bulk shear to work with during this period. Instability will be rather lacking, though CAM guidance suggests ML CAPE may reach around 1000-1400 across portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area in the afternoon. Updraft helicity and lift is still generally more potent north of I-10 as well during this period. A cold front should follow the surface low, tracking eastwards across SE Texas in the afternoon with another reinforcing front pushing in from the north behind it later in the evening. CAMs are suggesting that there may be some lingering moisture behind the initial westerly front to produce storms along the northerly front later in the evening. Either way it's poised to be a very dynamic weather environment and mesoscale processes will likely have a large role to play. The key time to watch will be during the afternoon hours. SPC has our northeastern counties under a slight (level 2/5) risk for severe weather on Wednesday with the remainder of SE texas under at least a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe weather. Again, all hazards are on the table, including locally heavy rainfall as well (should storms train over the same area).

Rain chances taper off Wednesday night with cooler, drier and breezy weather developing Thursday in the wake of the front. Onshore flow returns and ushers in pleasant weather through the rest of spring break. Next cold front is still tentatively set for Sunday night/Monday morning.

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500ft will prevail through the late morning for most of SE Texas, then CIGs scatter out/lift to around 4000-6000ft this afternoon. Southerly winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt will begin by the late morning to early afternoon and persist through the evening hours. These gusty winds will begin to become less frequent tonight for areas north of I-10, but may remain gusty along the coast. A return of MVFR conditions this evening, then IFR conditions by late tonight (around 9-11z) with CIGs down to around 700-900ft.

Isolated showers will be possible this afternoon north of I-10, but we are expecting an increase in showers and thunderstorms beginning as early as Wednesday morning and then through the afternoon hours as a cold front pushes through the region. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the cold front capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, strong winds, hail, and cannot out rule an isolated tornado. Gusty northerly winds are expected Wednesday night into Thursday following the FROPA.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Sea fog chances should continue to decrease heading into mid week as onshore winds strengthen. May see some patches of fog at times, though visibility should generally remain around 2-6 NM within these patches. Caution flags and small craft advisories will be in effect overnight to capture these rising winds and seas. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to push through the region on Wednesday with a cold front moving off the coast behind it. Anticipate stronger winds and waves near thunderstorms. Strong northwesterly winds develop late Wednesday night after the front, reaching 25-30 knots with gusts to Gale. Seas may reach 6-10 feet. Additional small craft advisories are likely late Wednesday night through at least Thursday afternoon.

Strong winds will also bring a high risk of rip currents through Thursday. Those heading to the beach for Spring Break should swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers. Onshore winds and calmer weather returns Friday morning. Next cold front arrives some time late Sunday/early Monday.

03

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

We'll be monitoring the Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) as we anticipate another round of showers and storms late Tuesday night into Wednesday as there is potential for it to crest near or into minor flood stage over the next couple of days. A couple of other gauges along the Trinity River may crest near action stage depending on how much rain falls into the basin.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 75 47 67 / 60 80 30 0 Houston (IAH) 71 78 53 70 / 20 100 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 74 58 68 / 10 50 30 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday morning for GMZ330-350.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening through Wednesday morning for GMZ335-355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ370-375.