textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

- Widespread rainfall totals manageable. But locally much heavier totals could result in localized flooding Friday-Saturday.

- Early next week looks drier, but uncertainty exists regarding the pattern.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Through Saturday, the primary weather system of interest will be the mid/upper trough over SW CONUS. The system will be introducing increased lift while throwing a smattering of vort maxes our way over the next few days, especially Friday and Saturday. Considering the PWAT rich environment and the potential for the frontal boundary offshore to lift northward towards the coast, this set up should at least bring a decent chance of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to SE Texas Friday and Saturday. However, it's possible that a vort max or two or three could provide sufficient lift for deeper convection, setting the stage for a few stronger thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall. It's unfortunately difficult to say exactly where these heavier showers/thunderstorms will occur. But if I had to guess, it would be somewhere in our southern and/or coastal counties, where PWATs will be highest and lift could be enhanced by the aforementioned boundary. The harder thing to predict is the timing. I have been burned in the past for trying to predict exact thunderstorm timing in a scenario featuring vort maxes swirling around in a moisture rich atmosphere. Friday afternoon through Saturday morning appear to be the time frame of most concern. Not every location will receive a heavier thunderstorm. But those that do could experience localized flooding and perhaps strong gusty winds. Temperature wise, we suspect Friday will struggle to reach 80 (much like today). Saturday looks warmer, with highs in the low 80s.

The system departs the area by Sunday, which potentially sets us up for a drier period early next week. But note I used the word 'potentially.' There are a few things that could go wrong in the Sunday - Wednesday time frame. The first is the prospect of a NW flow pattern with disturbances embedded in the flow aloft. The pattern can be a signal for more thunderstorm activity, especially this time of year. However, I am unsure how long this pattern will hold. Sunday / Sunday night appears to be the primary suspicious time frame, especially with the prospect of another cold front pushing southward into our area. Drier air in its wake should keep PoPs low on Monday. But after that, there are multiple moving parts in the pattern that add some uncertainty to next week's forecast. The NW-flow pattern could try to hold as moist returns. A UL subtropical jet over Mexico could disrupt the NW- flow pattern. There's also ensemble disagreement regarding an eastward progression and breakdown of the mid/upper ridge. A more persistent ridge axis to our west would tend to keep us in the pattern for longer. A ridge right over us would make us bone dry. For now, the early week forecast remains dry.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Most terminals are VFR this afternoon, but MVFR ceilings continue to persist along the coast. Northerly to northeasterly winds around or less than 10 kt will become light and variable this evening as MVFR ceilings gradually spread inland. Intermittent periods of IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out along the coast after 12Z/Friday. Scattered showers are expected to move through the area generally between 10Z-17Z. There is potential for convection in the late morning to early afternoon hours on Friday, but confidence is on the low side as model guidance is very inconsistent on the timing and placement of convection. Winds on Friday will be on the light side, but will start out easterly in the morning and becoming east-southeasterly in the afternoon. MVFR ceilings are expected to linger throughout the day, but there is potential for VFR to return in the afternoon. Either way, expect MVFR to IFR ceilings fill back in again Friday evening along with increasing chances for showers/storms.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 104 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026

Moderate northeast winds over the Gulf will subside this evening. Winds will veer east then southeast going into Friday and Saturday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon through Saturday morning, possibly into Saturday afternoon. Locally heavier thunderstorms capable of strong winds are possible. A period of moderate NE winds is possible on Monday behind a cold front. This should be short-lived, with winds veering onshore by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 63 77 67 81 / 10 40 70 50 Houston (IAH) 67 77 71 83 / 10 50 60 60 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 75 82 / 20 50 60 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT Friday for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.