textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected for the remainder the week.

- Warm and humid conditions will prevail in between rounds of precipitation.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast starting today through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Scattered/numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue for the through the weekend. A upper level low near Baja California and western Mexico will eventually cutoff later today which will help with having another focus for storms to initiate on. The best diffluence is a bit just west of the area but could definitely see storms starting in SE Texas from outflow boundaries from the west. Besides that, the typical diurnally driven summertime convective storm pattern continues with showers/storms near and off the coast in the early morning hours, then more inland during the day when peak heating nears and reaches its peak. Rainfall wise, onshore flow continues to pump rich moist air from the gulf so storms will be very efficient rainmakers. Due to the scattered nature of the storms the past few days, total rain from the past few days is quite spotty with most areas have already seen 1-3 inches of rainfall in the past day or so with locally higher totals in a few spots such as in the Galveston area. While most places still have relatively low soil moisture, the hardest hit areas from previous days could see any additional rainfall be mostly runoff. So overall thinking the marginal risk of excessive rainfall by WPC to be warranted for the next few days.

The rain and cloud cover should help cap the high temperatures in most places but for anywhere that gets full sun could easily see highs in the low 90s and heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s. Going into next week, a upper level ridge starts to build out in the western continental US which will help reduce but not completely eliminate storm chances. However with less storms and cloud cover will mean more places will heat up, so take precautions while outdoors especially if it will be prolonged.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 649 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

VFR at all site this evening. Still have showers and storms working their way through the area as we continue to have an influx of moisture interact with an unstable environment. Overnight activity will be possible closer to the coast. VFR conditions will prevail through around 03-06Z, after which MVFR CIGs will move in. A brief period of IFR CIGs will be possible at CLL. Expect conditions to bounce between MVFR/VFR through much of the day as more showers and thunderstorms develop during the daytime and continue through the end of the TAF cycle.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1225 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Onshore flow continues for the coastal areas with winds just touching or at small craft exercise caution criteria. That will wane in the early morning hours today but additional rounds of winds of 15 to 20 knots are possible through the weekend. Due to the prolonged SE to E winds, additional water will be piling up at the east/south facing shores. Rip current risk will steadily increase through the weekend and into the early parts of next week. Coastal flooding does not seem to be a concern right now but a few of the lowest lying spots may see water during high tide.

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 340 AM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A surface convergence zone near the I-45 corridor and south of I-10 lead to a pocket of 3-4+" rainfall totals on Thursday. This in turn lead to minor/street flooding in portions of inland Galveston County Thursday morning/afternoon. The HREF nailed the placement of this rainfall maxima, so it's worth pointing out that there is potential for another round of 3+" rainfall totals by this afternoon. This time it is pinpointing areas in eastern Harris County and western Chambers County as the most likely to see the highest rainfall totals today. That being said, if you look at each HREF member individually, you'll see that the placement of the rainfall maxima varies a bit...but there is general consensus for it to occur near I-10. Remember that portions of inland Galveston County are fairly saturated following Thursday's rain, so if this area were to see prolonged periods of heavy rainfall again today then there would be a quicker transition to runoff.

Rainfall rates will continue to peak in the 3-4" per hour range in the heaviest downpours. The potential for minor/street flooding persists today and into the weekend. Portions of Southeast Texas remain in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall daily through Sunday. There is one exception today though where portions of the Brazos Valley are outlined in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall due to its proximity with the approaching upper level low. Be sure to stay up to date on the latest forecasts and have multiple ways to receive alerts.

While we're talking about hydrologic matters, I might as well point out that the San Bernard River at East Bernard (EBBT2) is currently rising into action stage where it will crest later this afternoon. All other river gauges are expected to remain below action stage at this time, but we'll have to monitor local streams/bayous due to the potential for 3+" rainfall amounts in or around Harris County today. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 85 73 85 74 / 60 30 70 30 Houston (IAH) 86 75 87 76 / 60 10 70 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 81 87 82 / 30 10 30 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.