textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A gradual warming trend continues this weekend, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s by Sunday.

- Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which will be accompanied by showers/storms late Sunday. Strong storms are possible along the frontal boundary.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (9-14 ft), and potential for negative tides.

- Monitoring the potential for elevated fire weather conditions on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Fair weather is expected tonight with clear skies and light south-southeasterly winds. Low temperatures overnight will range in the lower to mid 50s inland and the upper 50s to lower 60s over the Houston Metro and coastal locations. Southerly flow will continue to supply moisture from the Gulf and maintain a warming trend on Saturday, with highs already back in the 80s for many locations. Rising humidity will lead to very low dew point departure during the overnight to early morning hours through Sunday morning and patchy fog may develop over portions of Southeast TX (if winds are light enough).

Sunday will be our warmest day this weekend as moisture converges ahead of the next system and winds become south-southwesterly, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s - roughly 8 to 14 degrees above normal. It will at least be breezy as the pressure gradient tightens (winds at around 15 to 20 mph) and a low level jet strengthens, but be prepared for the warmth if you plan to spend time and work outdoors. For those wanting to visit the beaches, make sure to verify the marine and beach flag conditions given that winds and seas will be building and strong rip currents may develop. We are still expecting showers and thunderstorms sometime late Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening as a mid-upper level trough deepens over the Plains Sunday morning and a fast moving cold front moves across Southeast Texas late afternoon to evening. Even with having southerly flow today and Saturday, instability and moisture levels on Sunday morning will be rather limited with PWs still under 1.0 inch. Forecast soundings also show the environment to be capped possibly even into the mid afternoon hours. Thus, its more likely to see the shower and thunderstorm activity occuring along the frontal boundary as conditions become more unstable, moisture converges, and lift increases just ahead of the front. The 30-45 knot low level jet will also be present during the afternoon hours, strongest over areas near and east of I-45, thus, we will have to keep an eye on how much shear will be present as these storms roll through. There is the potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe and SPC continues a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over the Piney Woods region (where the strongest low level winds will be) and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of Southeast TX.

As mentioned above, the front is to pass through Southeast TX very quickly - going from the Brazos Valley to the coastal waters in about 5-6 hours. In the wake of the front, cold dry air will quickly filter in along with a 50-60 knot low level jet. Expect strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday morning with speeds ranging between 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph, highest over the coastal locations. Thus, Wind Advisories may be needed, in particular over the coastal locations. Temperatures will dip fast on Sunday night with lows expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for many locations by sunrise on Monday. Hello winter?

Winds relax Monday afternoon with colder conditions prevailing. I'm not going to sugar coat that it will be a little shocking going from highs in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday to highs in the 50s on Monday. But we will take it any day :D! The one thing we will have to be careful with on Monday is the potential for elevated fire weather given how dry and breezy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below).

Monday night, the second night of CAA, will be the coldest with lows in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts. BRRR. The fair weather conditions will prevail for the rest of the work week. Unfortunately, southerly flow already returns by Tuesday and will once again bring us a warming trend through the rest of the work week and highs will bounce back into the 80s by Thursday. Sigh.

Cotto

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 547 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

MVFR cloud deck has developed along/east of the I-45 corridor early this morning and will continue to linger over multiple terminals over the next few hours. Ceilings will lift by 15-16Z as southeasterly winds increase. Expect sustained winds in the 10-15 kt range with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon. Winds remain elevated overnight (generally around 10 kt), which will inhibit fog development. Widespread MVFR ceilings will filter in from the west after 06Z and prevail through Sunday morning. Expect another round of gusty southerly winds on Sunday.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue Sunday morning. Seas will be 2-3 feet through Saturday night, building on Sunday as winds increase ahead of a strong cold front. There's the potential for strong rip currents to develop on Sunday as winds and seas build.

The cold front will move into the coastal waters very quickly sometime Sunday evening or early Sunday night. Associated showers and thunderstorms will be mostly focused along the boundary as it pushes through and some of these storms could become strong to severe. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds will develop. Expect speeds to range between 30-35 knots and gusts between 40-45 knots Sunday night into Monday. Seas will also build to 8-14 feet. Small Craft Advisories and Gale Warnings will be likely. In addition, low water levels are possible in the bays.

Winds and seas will gradually decrease Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue into the end of the work week.

Cotto

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sat Mar 14 2026

Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday's front. Expect elevated fire weather risk as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds range between 15-20 mph with gusts of around 25 mph. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, although winds will be becoming southeasterly and much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south- southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 80 63 88 38 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 80 65 86 44 / 0 0 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 74 68 77 48 / 0 0 0 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.