textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

- Isolated rain chances now through the weekend. Cannot rule out some stronger or severe storms on these days either. '

- Front stalls out before reaching SE Texas around Monday with daily rain chances through mid next week.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 2 (Friday) Outlook and it now outlines areas generally along and north of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Friday. Isolated to scattered showers/storms are expected to develop during the afternoon hours, and a few storms could become strong to severe through Friday evening. This potential is a bit conditional as storms will likely struggle to maintain an updraft, but if they were to do so then they could become strong to severe. The primary threats are damaging wind gusts and hail in any storm that is able to sustain an updraft given the amount of instability that will be in place. Be sure to remain weather aware and stay up to date on the forecast as we head towards Friday.

Batiste

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today should generally see lower coverage in showers/storms due to rising heights within this semi-zonal flow pattern aloft. Better instability and shear may be present, but the distinct lack of forcing should keep convective activity isolated in nature. Still, severe storms cannot be completely ruled out for this afternoon, especially with how storms overperformed on Wednesday. Worth keeping an eye on the radar in case any stronger storms manage to pull together. Otherwise, anticipate warming conditions with highs in the mid/lower 80 and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Still monitoring a period of potentially active weather from Friday over the weekend. SE Texas will be under mostly zonal flow with ample shear and instability in place across the region. For SE Texas specifically, models show SFC CAPE from around 1700-3000 J/KG with 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several troughs/disturbances are expected to pass to the north of our area around this time, thus much of the best lift and forcing will keep north of our area as well. SPC still maintains a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather up against our northern boarder on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. While it's not directly in our CWA for all of these days, any southerly shift in those shortwaves/impulses may result in this risk shifting into our area. Given the troublesome nature of these northwest flow patterns, the severe risk is still in play for SE Texas on these days too.

On Monday, a much more robust shortwave trough is anticipated to fill north across the Plains. This feature will send a cold front towards SE Texas, though ultimately it doesn't appear as though it'll get here, slowing/stalling around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area per long range ensemble guidance. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, allowing low rain chances and warmer weather to continue.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning with a few spots intermittently dropping to IFR will give way to VFR ceilings later this morning by 17Z. Southeasterly winds will be breezy with sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon. Isolated showers/storms will be possible this afternoon, but mainly east of I-45. The probability of convection is too low for mentions in any of the TAFs. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to filter in from south to north this evening and into Friday morning. Winds remain elevated through the overnight hours, so fog potential will likely be inhibited.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end of the work week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 69 86 70 / 0 0 20 20 Houston (IAH) 84 71 87 73 / 20 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 81 74 / 20 20 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.