textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warm conditions will persist with highs in the upper 80s to low 90s into the weekend. Today is expected to be the hottest day of the week.

- Patchy fog late tonight through early Thursday morning.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in humidity. Best rain and storm chances arrive early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Forecast hasn't changed much between model runes. Morning lows for today should be warmer, only falling into the 60s/lower 70s due to steady onshore flow. Patchy fog will still be possible during the early morning hours, especially in areas south of I-10 & west of I- 45. The mid/upper level ridge axis should slide over SE Texas today. High temperatures this afternoon should still be in the 80s with isolated lower 90s. This is currently anticipated to be the warmest period of the forecast, as the ridge aloft is expected to weaken from several disturbances pushing in from the west.

By Friday the upper level ridge will have pushed off to the east with midlevel heights falling over SE Texas. As heights decrease, so will subsidence. Temperatures are expected to be in the 80s, but should drop 4-6 degrees by Saturday. Meanwhile, onshore flow will remain uninterrupted, thus moisture will continue to increase. This should result in low temperatures climbing into the 70s area-wide during the weekend. Vorticity impulses are anticipated to push over the region throughout this time frame, though the environment remains slightly capped, thus PoPs remain low.

On Monday, a mid/upper level trough will push into the Great Basin with a shortwave trough over Baja California. These features are progged to send ample shortwave energy to SE Texas, providing plenty of lift in addition to strengthening onshore flow. PWs could climb to around 1.6-2.0" early next week. This pattern looks particularly favorable for rainfall, so we should see a fair amount of showers/thunderstorms early in the week. The aforementioned upper level trough is anticipated to fill northeast into Tuesday, with it's associated cold front likely stalling out before reaching SE Texas. Scattered showers and storms will remain a daily possibility through mid week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 553 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Look for some late night and early morning fog development, moreso south of I-10 and also CXO. Last night vsbys briefly fell to around 1 mile at some spots and don't see any reason to expect anything different tonight. Any fog will quickly burn off after sunrise. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1049 PM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Expect some land breeze driven winds early today, shifting onshore this afternoon, then increasing tonight through Friday. Moderate onshore winds of 15-20 knots with seas of 3-6 feet are anticipated throughout the weekend, likely prompting caution flags at least. Water levels may rise above 3.0ft MLLW with high tide on Saturday, then 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide on Sunday. This will also prompt a higher risk of rip currents across Gulf facing beaches. Scattered showers and storms return to the forecast on Monday of next week. Persistent southeasterly fetch may bring higher seas to 7 ft as well, which could prompt periods of small craft advisories.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 66 90 68 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 70 92 71 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 88 73 84 76 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.