textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue today with scattered showers and storms possible west of I-45. Overall chances decline on Thursday.

- A cold front pushes through the region on Friday, bringing a chance of coastal showers/storms, gusty north winds, and much cooler conditions to the region this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and potential gale conditions are trending upward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

GOES Total PW loop and model data is showing the leading edge of some drier air currently making its way westward into LA...which should track into SE TX today. Before that drier air fully moves in, it appears western parts of the region, say west of a Madisonville- Matagorda Bay line, should see some sct shower and isolated tstm activity develop as we get some daytime heating. Overall chances of precipitation will be lowest east of the I-45 corridor. Thursday looks mostly dry and warm with lower PW air in place along with mid level ridging.

Mid-upper trof across the Desert Southwest will track eastward into the Plains in the coming days. As its associated surface low forms near the Texas Panhandle and moves northeast toward the Ohio Valley, we'll see a relatively strong 1036-1042 mb surface ridge sink southward through the central CONUS and bring our much awaited cold front into the region. A northerly wind shift is anticipated during the morning hours, though the much drier and cooler air will lag a bit...becoming much more noticeable in the late afternoon and nighttime hours. In terms of rain potential in advance of the boundary, moisture recovery in advance of the boundary will be limited, though incoming deterministic guidance is trying to indicate some low chances...probably right along the convergent zone. NBM is showing near zero POPs, but I'm going to throw in some 20%'ers well inland. Closer to the coast, and especially offshore, there should be enough moisture to work with to go with some higher POPs (compliments of a weak easterly wave across the western Gulf) .

Breezy north winds are expected in the wake of the front through Saturday. Weekend temperatures look very nice (50s/70s). I wouldn't be overly surprised if some northern locations don't make it above 70F on Saturday and fall into the 40s at night. Time will tell.

Surface high pressure moves off to the east early next week, and look for a gradual warming trend to ensue. Clouds and coastal rain chances will trend upward Monday afternoon-Wednesday as Gulf moisture gets drawn into the region along the northern periphery of another easterly wave tracking westward across the southern Gulf. 47

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

A few showers persisting on radar tonight with minimal impacts to terminals expected. MVFR/IFR CIGs expected to develop around 06Z. Improvement to VFR expected to occur by mid to late morning. Winds will be light out of the SE during the overnight hours into Wednesday morning. SE winds increase across all terminals Wednesday afternoon with gusts to around 20-22 knots at times. A few showers with embedded TS may occur west of the I-45 corridor during the morning into afternoon hours. Activity will wane off towards sunset.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1228 AM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Moderate onshore winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail for the next couple of days. The primary weather concern this week is a cold front that is expected to push offshore on Friday. Once the cooler air in the front's wake arrives and moves over the warmer coastal waters, especially Friday night and Saturday, look for a substantial increase in north winds and building seas. Small Craft Advisories are likely. Probabilities for some gale conditions have been trending upward late Friday night and Saturday. Winds/seas begin to gradually subside Saturday night and Sunday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 91 69 91 66 / 50 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 91 72 89 70 / 20 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 88 78 88 75 / 0 0 20 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.