textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Weak reinforcing front will push off the coast this morning.

- Increasing cloudiness later today and tonight. Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday across western parts of the region.

- Cool conditions anticipated Sunday with abundant cloud cover and scattered showers in the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

Very benign weather is forecast early this morning, with readings generally in the 60s, and light winds. Synoptically, weak upper- level ridging persists. Some shortwave action approaches from the southwest, causing increased precip chances offshore until sunrise. Patchy fog may develop early this morning, particularly along and south of I-10 ahead of a weak cold front that will be pushing through the region. The front continues its trek until stalling over the Gulf waters. Because this is a very weak cold front, we don't expect temperatures to decrease by much. Highs on Friday remain in the mid 70s to low 80s. But don't fret, we do expect a gradual cooling trend this weekend into next week, as a surface high builds in from the north. Forecast high temps are in the 70s on Saturday and dip down into the 60s on Sunday.

This weekend, the synoptic pattern changes. A mid/upper level trough strengthens over west CONUS until eventually, a cut-off low feature breaks out of the trough. By Saturday, the mid/upper level cut-off low should be centered over northern Mexico, and will slowly move NE towards TX, advecting positive vort maxes into our region. Additionally, an upper-level jet is evident across south-central CONUS, moving east ahead of the low. The jet's position places western portions of our CWA near the right-entrance region, enhancing lift. At the same time, a coastal trough feature emerges due to the stalled front I mentioned earlier. By Sunday, the low begins to interact with the coastal trough. Gulf moisture wraps around the low, advecting moisture inland, particularly west of I-45. This, combined with enhanced lift, leads to increased chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday morning through Monday afternoon. Current guidance places the highest chances west of I-45, though some showers could creep further east.

Regardless of rain chances, cloud cover should increase across the region this weekend, staying mostly overcast on Sunday. Sunday is shaping up to be the coolest day, with cloud cover helping to limit any heating potential. Most deterministic models show highs in the 60s across the board, though some ensembles nudge up high temps into the 70s. Sunday's lows are forecast in the 50s, with some spots in our northern counties dipping down into the 40s. By Monday night, the low meanders NE across TX, and cloud cover starts to decrease. High temps gradually warm back up to the 70s, and lows stick around in the 50s (inland) to 60s (coastal). However, the surface high to our north maintains it's stronghold, which should help temps remain mild through the week. Rain chances remain low for inland areas through the work week, though that coastal trough sticks around. This keeps moisture levels elevated near the coast and over the Gulf waters, allowing for medium rain chances in these areas. Enjoy this beautiful fall weather SE TX!

MLG

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1221 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A very weak front is situated on the doorstep of SE Tx and will pass across most of the region overnight. Other than a light wind shift and some mid-upper clouds, it won't be very noticeable. Prior to its arrival, we could see some patchy, shallow fog develop ahead of the boundary...but mainly over grassy areas outside the metro area. Otherwise, VFR conditions with light winds and some increasing mid- upper level cloud cover today and tonight. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1221 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak front will push into the waters this morning, but other than a shift in wind direction, speeds and seas will be remain relatively low. A coastal trough develops off the low and mid Texas coast this weekend. As it does so, east and northeast winds will increase as will seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required later in the day Saturday and into Sunday. Conditions should gradually improve early next week.

MLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 79 61 75 56 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 82 64 77 58 / 0 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 68 76 63 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.