textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry today.

- A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers and thunderstorms Saturday afternoon/evening through very early Sunday. - Next week's outlook features seasonably hot and humid conditions with isolated afternoon showers and storms possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Texas remains in the grip of a strong mid/upper ridge centered over New Mexico. However, one can see signs of flux in the pattern by taking a gander at the water vapor imagery. Over the northern plains, there is a robust mid/upper disturbances that is trending from a strong shortwave trough to a more longer wave system. As ridging retrogrades into W CONUS this weekend, the aforementioned trough should help shift lower mid/upper heights westward in the central CONUS, eroding the ridge over Texas. The mid/upper system will also foment LL cyclogenesis, resulting in a sfc low that tracks across the Midwest this weekend. The low will have a trailing cold front that pushes into southeast Texas by Saturday afternoon or night. What do all these factors entail for our weather here in SE TX?

The dry and hot regime will continue today. Inland afternoon highs in the upper 90s will be common once again, with a few areas reaching 100 degrees. Sufficient mixing should keep peak heating dew points low enough to prevent widespread heat indices reaching or exceeding 108F (Heat Advisory criteria). That being said, various locations did briefly reaching 108-109F on Thursday, so I suspect that will happen again today. Remember that normal Texas heat is dangerous. Today's temperatures should be a tad hotter than normal.

The trailing cold front approaches the region on Saturday. The exact timing of the front will be crucial regarding convection and temperatures. LL frontal convergence may already be sufficient to initiate at least shallow convection along and ahead of the front. But moisture / thermodynamic profiles could allow for deep convection, especially if these forcings are able to interact with peak daytime heating. A front that waits until Saturday evening / night will have less day time heating to play with, while a Saturday afternoon FROPA will obviously have more. Couldn't rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm if the timing works out. Saturday's temperatures are expected to be in the mid/upper 90s. But with a veering LL wind profile and enough sunshine ahead of the front, I couldn't rule out temperatures trying to spike up to around 100 degrees in our central and southern counties ahead of the front.

Interestingly, guidance has trended towards a somewhat stronger front, featuring much lower dew points in its wake. How far south this dry air extends is uncertain. But it appears dew points as low as the 50s could make it into our northern zones, while dew points well down into the 60s could push all the way to I-10. If the front's associated showers/storms/clouds are able to clear, yielding a bright, sunny Sunday with low dew points and light northerly flow, then it's possible my mid/upper 90s temps on Sunday are a little low. But I'll stick with mid/upper 90s for now.

The outlook for next week continues to look seasonably miserable, with highs in the mid/upper 90s, isolated diurnal showers/storms, and heat indices well over 100 degrees.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 520 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2026

VFR conditions continue to persist, but some isolated reduced visibilities/ceilings remain possible through 15Z especially CXO and northward along with LBX. The morning will start out with southwesterly winds around 7-10 kt, then becoming southerly in the afternoon with wind speeds around 10-12 kt. Can't rule out occasional wind gusts of 15-20 kt. Just after the current TAF period, will be monitoring for isolated to scattered shower/storm development along and ahead of a frontal boundary.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

Light to moderate SW winds should continue through Friday and into Saturday. By Saturday afternoon and evening, SW winds are expected to increase somewhat, possibly reaching up to 20 knots sustained at times. This may result in a modest increase in seas. The chance of showers and thunderstorms increases late Saturday afternoon and evening as well. By Sunday into Monday, winds may become westerly. Light to moderate S to SW winds return for Tuesday and Wednesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 99 77 97 75 / 0 0 40 20 Houston (IAH) 99 79 99 80 / 0 0 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 94 82 / 0 0 10 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.