textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Highest risk of a shower/storm will be in our northern counties and along the sea breeze boundary in our southern counties.

- Hot temperatures with daily isolated to scattered diurnal thunderstorms for much of the upcoming week.

- Less humid later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Mid/upper WV imagery coupled with 500 MB RAP analysis indicate that ridging overhead has broken down somewhat, with a modest troughing feature setting up across northern and central Texas. This system should supply a little extra lift to the SE TX atmosphere, which will at least give a slight boost to diurnal PoPs on Monday. Already we have had showers and thunderstorms in central Texas Sunday evening and couldn't rule out a few showers managing to make into our northwestern-most areas overnight. For Monday, the best chance of receiving isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be across our northern counties and in areas that experience the sea breeze boundary (southern / coastal counties). Tuesday and Wednesday will also feature a chance of isolated showers/storms, albeit lower and more associated with the sea breeze. However, a plurality of ensembles suggest Wednesday may have better chance of showers/storms due to an approaching boundary (spoken about in the next paragraph). Afternoon temperatures should be well into the 90s with high humidity and triple digit heat indicies.

Mid/upper ridging becomes more stout over central CONUS as a trough digs south over E CONUS during the second half of the week. This will keep things toasty while our friends back east experience a good cool down. However, it still appears a backdoor boundary of sorts may drop humidity levels by Thursday, with temperatures possibly dropping a few degrees as well. That being said, late- week temperatures are likely to skew a little warmer than normal. There's some ensemble support for a more meaningful front around the 1st of October. But it's much too early to get excited about that.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Light winds this morning will strengthen and become southeasterly during the afternoon. Isolated to scattered storms will be possible as well through the afternoon, mainly along a lingering boundary around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and along the sea breeze. Winds will become light and variable tonight with cloud decks lowering again to around 2000-3000ft early Tuesday morning. Outside of brief patchy fog in spots, VFR conditions should prevail throughout the TAF period.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds (7-15 KT) Monday, are expected to become northeasterly by Tuesday. These winds should become more consistently moderate to occasionally fresh (10-20 KT) by Wednesday and Thursday. There will be a daily risk of isolated showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Gulf seas of 1 to 3 feet may increase to the 2 to 4 foot range by week's end.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 97 75 98 76 / 30 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 95 77 97 79 / 20 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 92 83 / 20 10 30 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.