textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Waves continue to subside today through the weekend, however, a risk of rip currents remains through the week.

- Lower humidity this weekend, resulting in seasonable overnight lows but above normal daytime highs.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday. Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Mid-upper level ridging settles in after the passage of Hurricane Isaias to our east. This high pressure persists throughout the upcoming week and stifles rain chances for the rest of the weekend. However, winds have returned out of the SE, bringing back moisture (PWATs over 2 inches) by Monday. A surface boundary to our southwest (near Matagorda Bay) moves inland Monday morning. This, along with afternoon sea breezes and elevated PWATs, provide renewed rain chances Mon-Wed, beginning as early as Monday morning. Even with these conditions in place, we are still under widespread ridging, so expected rain coverage is isolated-scattered.

The returned moisture flow means we can also anticipate warmer, muggier conditions. Patchy fog is possible, particularly west of I- 45 and dissipates as the sun rises. Highs will be in the upper 80s/low 90s and lows will be in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

We may see relief from these warm, muggy conditions this upcoming weekend. Models agree that a broad pocket of cold temperatures dig into the NE U.S. from Canada. However, models disagree on just how far south the low pressure system and associated cold front will bring these temperatures. The GFS suggests a tight gradient of theta- e values digging deep into Texas overnight Friday into Saturday, dropping daytime highs into the 60s. The ECMWF is much more conservative, with a very weak theta-e gradient and highs "dropping" slightly to the low-mid 80s. Humidity relief is suggested across the board though, with winds veering to the north/northeast, meaning we could at least hope for reduced Gulf moisture impacts. The winds with this frontal passage are likewise uncertain, where the GFS suggests a 925mb jet of 40-50kts and the ECMWF only suggests 20- 30kts. Confidence will build with time, but for now we continue to monitor for a relief in humidity and the potential for strong northerly winds.

BSM

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the southeast in the morning, becoming light to moderate in the afternoon/evening, with gusts to 20 knots at times. Light patchy fog may develop around 12Z-14Z in the Brazos Valley, bringing brief MVFR conditions to KCLL.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Moderate rip current risks continue through Sunday morning and increase early next week. Winds are from the SE between 10-20kts and seas are between 2-4 ft until the potential for a frontal passage Friday night. At this point, winds veer to the NE and become gusty into Saturday. Being this far out from FROPA, confidence is low on the strength of the front, but we're watching for the potential for elevated winds and seas Friday night into Saturday. For the short term, mostly clear skies to wrap up the weekend with rain chances picking pack up Mon-Wed.

BSM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 93 74 95 / 0 40 0 50 Houston (IAH) 72 91 76 92 / 0 40 10 60 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 81 86 / 0 40 10 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.