textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms this weekend (30-70% chance).

- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

No substantial changes were made to the ongoing forecast. Elevated moisture levels will lead to diurnally driven shower/storm development this weekend. Best chances, and overall coverage, should generally be situated south of a Livingston-Columbus line. Some weak northward moving vorticity may enhance overall coverage/intensity today for locations south of I-10 and out near Matagorda Bay where some hires guidance suggest some pockets of 1-3" amounts can't be ruled out.

Monday and Tuesday, we'll see the trof currently seen on water vapor imagery across the Midwest/OH Valley sink southward then westward along the southern periphery of the expansive ridging moving into the nctl US. This trof/weakness and associated disturbances should provide more favorable conditions & lift for more widespread precipitation across most of the region. Still keeping an eye on some weak upper diffluence and potential slower steering flow that could provide pockets of locally heavy rain during this time period.

During the second half of next week, we should see a transition to some drier and warmer conditions as the mid level trof moves further west and mid level ridging begins moving in. Southerly low level flow could still bring some isolated diurnally-driven seabreeze activity in the afternoons. With fewer clouds, temperatures should trend back up into the mid 90s.

LDavis/47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Early morning streamer showers and storms are seen along the coast. These storms are mainly impacting site KGLS, but could impact sites KLBX and KSGR over the next couple of hours. Some uncertainty remains in how far north showers and storms will get in the early morning, so went with VCSH for sites KIAH and KHOU. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon, especially for sites KIAH and KDWH and points southward. Shower and storm coverage is expected to dissipate this evening. Tonight we should see quiet conditions with light southerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow continues into next week. Seas will remain between 2-4ft throughout this period. Scattered shower and thunderstorm development is expected offshore late at night into the early afternoon hours...then mostly push inland. More widespread rain chances are expected Monday and Tuesday. Severe weather is not anticipated; however, through Tuesday, localized heavy downpours, gusty winds(~30kts), and higher seas are possible in/near stronger cells.

LDavis/47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 93 77 93 76 / 40 10 40 40 Houston (IAH) 92 79 93 77 / 70 40 60 30 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 91 81 / 50 30 60 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.