textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Sea fog has become dense again tonight, and is expected to pose hazard to navigation into Tuesday morning. There is potential for further fog nightly for at least the next couple of nights.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week. - There will be some chance for rain Wednesday, particularly in the northwestern parts of the area towards the Brazos Valley. More broad rain chances exist this weekend, along with some low potential for locally heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Sea fog is at it again. Particularly on the lower waters, but also in portions of lower Galveston Bay and its adjacent waters. That's mostly something to read about in the marine section below, but there will also be some impact to coastal areas as well through the night, particularly to Galveston itself as Scholes Field is reporting 1/2 mile visibility at midnight. In general, any fog that makes its way over land should generally not be quite so severe, but it does indicate how low things can go in the most affected locations. If you're out driving late or have got a morning commute to or very near the coast, be alert for potentially dramatic changes in visibility in short stretches, and adjust your driving accordingly!

While this episode of fog should come to an end around mid- morning, our persistent onshore winds aren't really going anywhere, so for at least a couple more nights (and potentially even more?) we'll have to be on the lookout for more fog development into the nighttime hours. Confidence on just how dense that fog may be each night is...much lower. Mostly because fog is chaotic evil, and seemingly exists to make me look dumb(er?). Or, at least, that's what I tell myself even though the reality is more that we are working with a very tricky interplay between low level humidity, winds, surface characteristics, vertical mixing, and sea surface temperatures. My thinking is that with winds expected to be veered a little bit due to a weak front approaching, but stalling out to our north, we won't have quite the ideal wind direction for maxing out fog potential, and fog the next night or two should be present, but perhaps not as dense as we've seen. That is not a wager I would put a lot of money on, though. Confidence is low, with a wide distribution of potential fog outcomes.

As that onshore flow was mentioned not to be going anywhere, neither are the unseasonably warm temps in place. The influx of humid Gulf air will keep the temperature floor quite elevated. Indeed, with forecast lows in the 60s (maybe even around 70 in the warmest spots), lows this week look to be closer to average *high* temperatures for the area than average lows. And with a floor like that, we can similarly expect afternoon highs to be above average as well. Highs in the 80s look become the norm inland, with the moderating influence of Gulf waters keeping only the immediate coast in the 70s.

Could there be anything to change that? Well, yes, we are not devoid of alternate scenarios here. We'll be looking for the approach of cold fronts Wednesday and again this weekend. At this point, all expectations are that they will fail to pass through the area, and the forecast reflects this. Ridging over the Southeast US looks simply too strong, deflecting both upper troughs supporting the fronts off to the northeast far too early to support a push all the way through the area. Confidence is particularly high on the Wednesday front, in which LREF clustering analysis indicates none of the four generated clusters even brings the front into the area. There will be some rain chances, particularly for the inland half of the area, as we get isentropic upglide from the Gulf inflow...but the front itself should stop well short.

This weekend is a little different story, but there's a good bit of emphasis on the "little" part of that phrase. In this case, all of the clusters bring the front to at least the northern edge of our forecast area, and the main difference between the scenarios is how deeply it pushes into the area before washing out. There's good consensus that the amount will be not much, but less consensus on how "not much" that will be. Ultimately, though, I don't think the spread in the guidance is so big that it will have a huge influence on the resultant weather for the area. With a boundary stalling out somewhere in our area, an upper trough off to the west, and continued onshore low level flow, decent rain chances seem obvious here. And with strong ensemble consensus in precipitable water over the 90th percentile (the Euro ensemble even has areas above the 97th percentile and the NAEFS explores above the 99th percentile), some locally heavy rain has got to be on the table if we can get some efficient convection going.

That said, the Euro ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index is not terribly impressed just yet. At its peak Sunday, it gives only the western third or so of the area an EFI over 0.5 for rainfall, a somewhat tenuous signal at most. That said, given the high PWATs progged to be in place, and the synoptic situation described, all it takes is a strong, efficient convective cell or training of some convective cells over the wrong spot to create a localized flooding rain issue. So, at this range, it's something that's on the table and potential that needs to be monitored, accepting that there is not a lot of confidence at this range. We'll be continuing to analyze the situation through the week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

IFR to MVFR ceilings are expected to continue through around 15Z, lifting and scattering out by late morning or early afternoon hours. winds have been strong enough to keep dense fog from developing over our inland site, however, sea fog over Galveston Bay and the adjacent nearshore waters and has reduced visibilities to around 1/2 mile for GLS. Conditions are expected to gradually improve throughout the morning hours.

SE winds today will strengthen to 12-18 KTS this afternoon with gusts of up to 25 KTS at times. Winds will relax to 5-10 KTS later in the evening. We will likely see a rinse and repeat for tonight into Wed morning, with ceilings lower back to the IFR-MVFR categories.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1237 AM CST Tue Mar 3 2026

Area webcams and observations are showing continued worsening of the fog, particularly on lower portions of the bays and their adjacent Gulf waters, and so a dense fog advisory has been issued for the waters through mid-morning. These types of conditions may be anticipated for at least the next couple of nights as well. There is relatively high confidence in seeing some amount of fog around the coast, though there is little confidence for its severity.

Beyond fog potential, expect light to moderate winds and low seas to continue through the week. There may be some streamer shower activity early in the mornings, and another slight chance of showers Wednesday afternoon. More significant rain chances at the coast and over the waters, though, look to hold off until the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 85 67 83 66 / 10 10 40 10 Houston (IAH) 83 68 83 69 / 20 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 66 73 66 / 20 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for TXZ214-313- 338-437>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355.