textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and muggy weather prevails through tomorrow. Patchy fog possible at night and in the morning. - A strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning will bring much colder conditions early next week, followed by a slow warmup deeper into the week.

- A Gale Watch is in effect for the bays and Gulf waters 12AM to 6PM on Monday. Strong winds and building seas likely. Low bay water levels and strong currents near the river-bay interface are a concern on Monday-Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

The makings of a pattern change are already apparent on current water vapor imagery. The ridge that has dominated our recent pattern remains in place. But the trough that will replace the ridge is currently digging southward over W CONUS. As the trough ejects eastward, a sfc low will develop in the central plains and intensify as it tracks towards the Great Lakes. Its trailing front will surge southward into Texas, reaching our CWA Sunday night. We will remain in this humid, warm air mass featuring near record temps and a nightly risk of patchy fog until the front passes. Looming behind the front is a ~1040MB high. The steepening gradient between the high and the aforementioned low will enhance a strong CAA event that will surge arctic air down the plains and into SE Texas. Winds will shift to the north and become quite gusty in the front's wake Sunday night, remaining gusty and from the north on Monday. Rain showers are expected along and ahead of the front, with some possibility of lingering showers in the front's wake. For today and Sunday, many locations are expected to be up around 80 degrees. But by Monday afternoon, many areas could struggle to get out of the 40s if there's enough cloud cover coupled with the strong CAA. Monday night lows remain tricky due to uncertainties regarding the amount of lingering cloud cover. If you're located in a non-urban area away from the coast and experience significant clearing of the cloud deck above, then you have a decent shot of seeing a light freeze. If not, temps will most likely remain above freezing at your location.

Tuesday is looking beautiful albeit chilly with highs averaging in the low 50s. The presence of high pressure / clear skies is expected to allow for efficient radiational cooling Tuesday night, likely resulting in a light freeze for areas away from the coast/bays and outside the core of Houston's urban heat island. Temps are expected to gradually warm to normal values during the second half of the week (highs in the 60s lows in the 40s). The outlook for your New Year's Eve celebrations continues to feature partly cloudy skies and sweater weather, with temps falling into the 50s and 40s.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Elevated winds overnight have prevented dense fog from developing, but some patches of reduced visibilities will remain possible through 15Z. As a result, low cloud ceilings are the main impact with MVFR to LIFR ceilings across the region. Surprisingly enough though, VFR conditions prevail along the coast and will likely prevail through tonight. Elsewhere, ceilings will gradually lift through the late morning hours with VFR conditions returning across the area by 20Z. Southerly to south-southwesterly winds around 10-15 kt with intermittent gusts around 20 kt will prevail throughout the day. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected tonight into Sunday morning. Winds look to remain elevated once again, so ceilings are expected to be the main impact once again rather than fog.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1144 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Warmer sea surface temperatures have made conditions less favorable for sea fog. However, very high moisture levels will keep the risk of patchy dense sea fog in the forecast until a strong cold front pushes through Sunday night. The best chance of fog occurs overnight tonight into Sunday morning, and again Sunday evening ahead of the cold front. Rain showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected as the front pushes through, with some possibility of showers lingering in the front's wake. But the primary story behind the front will be the strong, gusty northerly winds, building seas, and low water levels. A Gale Watch remains in effect from 12 AM to 6PM on Monday. The bays are expected to experience frequent gusts to gale force (35-40 knots). Offshore in the open Gulf, sustained winds could reach gale force while gusts may exceed 45 knots. Bay waters will become very rough while Gulf seas build up to 6-8 feet nearshore and 9-13 feet farther offshore. Winds and seas should gradually improve by Monday night. That being said, marine conditions are likely to remain hazardous into Tuesday morning. Low water levels are expected on Monday and Tuesday. In the upper bays, low water may prove hazardous, likely prompting low water advisories. Strong currents are possible near the river-bay interface during times of low tide.

By mid to late week, marine weather conditions are expected to become more tranquil, with winds becoming light and onshore. Moisture levels may rise enough to bring the next sea fog risk by next weekend. But confidence in a fog forecast 7-8 days out will always be on the lower side.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 81 41 49 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 67 82 46 52 / 0 0 40 0 Galveston (GLS) 66 77 49 52 / 0 10 60 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from late Sunday night through Monday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.