textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week with chances peaking today and Sunday where there is a marginal risk for excessive rainfall and severe weather for northern areas.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through the end of the week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Satellite derived PW values across most of Southeast TX are around the 90th percentile (~1.53") as an embedded shortwave trough pushes through the area leading to the development of isolated to scattered showers as early as before dawn. As we move into the late morning/early afternoon hours, coverage of these showers in addition to thunderstorms development are expected to increase as daytime heating becomes a factor. The latest CAMs (12Z) have the majority of the coverage continuing to be in the south of I-10/west of I-45 corridor. This area has also seen the most activity this morning, so the environment may be worked over a bit. However, visible satellite reflects that cloud cover is clearing out in these southwestern zones which means that sunshine will aid in destabilization. With PW values near the 90th percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger showers/storms. The caveat to today's rain chances is increasing subsidence as ridging aloft builds in throughout the day. 500mb heights will be in the 584-586 dam range by this evening.

For Saturday, elevated low-level moisture continues with PW values remaining around the 90th percentile. The ridge will gradually push out to the east leading to better shower/storm chances for areas to the west of I-45. Convective coverage on Saturday will be less than what occurred on Friday, since there is no shortwave trough pushing through the area.

Sunday is when things get a bit more interesting as PW values surge to near or over the MAX percentile (~1.88"). In addition to this, a passing jet streak and LLJ will have portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in the right entrance region which is indicative of upper level divergence. Another addition to this is a passing embedded shortwave trough that pushes through North Texas and portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. There will be at least some instability in place (~1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE) in our northern zones, but greater amounts of instability will be off to our west. There is still some potential for a storm or two to become strong to severe. As a result, SPC has outlined areas generally northwest of a Burleson-College Station-Madisonville line in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) of severe weather for Sunday. With PW values near the MAX percentile, locally heavy rainfall will be possible in any of the stronger storms. High rainfall rates (2-3+"/hr) for an extended period of time could lead to instances of localized urban and small stream flooding. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north of a Bellville-Huntsville-Trinity line in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday.

The ridge axis sliding to the east on Saturday is the result of an approaching upper level low from the Pacific Northwest. This upper level low will evolve into an upper level trough and push into the Central Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. The latest deterministic model guidance keeps the upper level trough further north than previous model runs, which explains why the 15% severe probability for the middle of next week was pushed to our northwest. That being said, there will still be a dry line set up to our northwest over in western Texas along with instability and moisture due to being in the warm sector of a surface low...so we'll still have to monitor for the potential of strong to severe storms as we head into the early to middle part of next week. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details and remain weather aware.

As far as temperatures go, high temperatures will remain generally in the upper 70s to low 80s through the weekend with mid to upper 80s likely coming by the middle part of next week. Low temperatures will range from the mid 60s to low 70s, but those low 70s will become increasingly widespread as we head into the weekend. In case you were curious on if there is any potential relief from these warm temperatures (outside of the rain), I have some bad news for you. Ensemble guidance shows nothing but a high probability of above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future. Let's start the countdown clock for the next cold front! ETA: ~7 months... :'(

Batiste/Serrett

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

Another morning of predominantly MVFR CIGs/Cloud decks across the area, though some pockets of IFR/LIFR CIGs/VIS could develop briefly as daybreak approaches. MVFR FLs are likely to hang around a tad longer than yesterday, though VFR conditions should return during the afternoon for most spots. Scattered showers are anticipated across the region during the daytime with some thunderstorms possible during the afternoon. Rain chances taper off in the evening. MVFR CIGs develop again overnight with IFR CIGs possible early Saturday morning.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1203 PM CDT Fri Apr 10 2026

East-southeasterly to southeasterly winds persist and will increase going into the evening/overnight hours, so small craft should continue to exercise caution through at least Saturday. Due to the elevated onshore flow, the increased risk of strong rip currents continues along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend and into early next week. Expect wave heights to remain elevated as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly winds stretching into the eastern Gulf bringing in a swell of elevated seas. Seas are expected to peak in the 5-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak today as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms.

Batiste/Serrett

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 66 81 68 79 / 20 40 10 70 Houston (IAH) 68 82 70 81 / 10 40 0 40 Galveston (GLS) 71 77 72 78 / 20 30 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.