textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin Wednesday with the greatest chances on Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front moves into/through the area. - Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by Sunday.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

We are in the midst of a pattern change for the region where the high pressure that has been dominating our weather will be sliding to the east. This will not only increase moisture to the region (through increased southeasterly flow), but also allow for some weak upper-level disturbances to pass by overhead bringing a return of rain chances to the region. The first of these weak disturbances will be tomorrow producing some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms during the morning and afternoon hours. Coverage of the activity will wane during the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating. Chances increase Thursday morning into Thursday afternoon a cold front approaches then stalls over the region. Anticipating that the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley regions will have the greatest coverage of showers and thunderstorms on Thursday closer to where the frontal boundary will stall, but isolated activity will be possible all the way to the coast. PWATs will increase to around 1.7" on Thursday, so cannot out rule some isolated heavy rainfall with any thunderstorms that develop. Again, rain chances are expected to diminish by sunset.

Some isolated streamer showers will be possible on Friday thanks to the moist onshore flow, but the greatest coverage is expected on Saturday as a stronger cold front pushes into the region. Exact timing and strength of the front is a little uncertain at the moment, but guidance is narrowing in on a Saturday evening/night timeframe for the FROPA. This front will bring greater chances of widespread showers and thunderstorms across much of the region compared to Thursday's weak front. A strong surface high pressure building behind Saturday's front will help it push through the region, but some guidance does show the front stalling near the coast through Sunday. PWATs will again be near 1.7-2.0" on Saturday, so localized downpours will be a possible. WPC has all of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall on Saturday, but our main impact will likely be minor urban and small stream flooding where drainage is poor. This rainfall will be beneficial our to worsening drought conditions across the region.

Afternoon high temperatures will continue to be in the mid to upper 80s for much of the region through Saturday, with the exception of Thursday where some cooler air is able to filter into the region with the stalling boundary keeping high temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s. Overnight lows will be in the upper 60s to low 70s through the rest of the week. The cold front Saturday evening/night will usher in cooler weather for the start of next week with highs back down to near 70 on Sunday and Monday.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

VFR currently across all SE TX sites with SE winds at 12-18 KTS and gusts up to 25 KTS through this evening. Winds will relax to around 08-12 KTS around 01Z and 05-08 KTS after 04Z. Skies will gradually become BKN/OVC tonight into early Wed morning, leading to IFR-MVFR cig categories for most sites. Sites that see winds of around 05 KTS could see some patchy fog developing. Fog, if any, is expected to burn off quickly after 14-15Z. Cloud decks will gradually lift during the mid-morning hours and scatter out during the afternoon hours. SE winds will increase late Wed morning into early Wed afternoon, expect speeds of 12-18 KTS with gusts of around 25 KTS through the late evening hours. Iso-Sct showers and thunderstorms could develop mainly during the afternoon and are expected to dissipate during the early evening hours.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 111 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow will persist through the remainder of the week with winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt and seas 3-5ft. May see an increase on Wednesday night into Thursday with gusts to 25kt and occasional seas to 6ft possible as the pressure gradient tightens across the waters. There will be daily rain chances beginning Wednesday, but greatest coverage will remain inland with some isolated morning showers possible in the coastal waters. The greatest rain chances will be Saturday evening into Sunday morning as a cold front enters the coastal waters.

The persistent onshore flow, which does become moderate at times, will lead to an increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf- facing beaches by Thursday.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 87 69 83 / 0 10 20 70 Houston (IAH) 70 85 72 83 / 0 40 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 72 78 72 78 / 10 30 10 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.