textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to bring a significant threat for heavy rainfall across the Piney Woods for the next 24 hours.

- Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches will be possible in areas that have already received significant rainfall.

- Scattered afternoon sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will be possible through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

SHORT TERM

(This evening through Thursday Night) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The main concern this afternoon through Thursday will be continued very heavy rainfall from the remnants of Tropical Depression Edouard. Latest radar and satellite imagery indicates that the center of the depression is located over eastern Houston County just east of Crockett with GOES derived PW values approaching 2.3 inches in this area. With weak mid and upper level steering flow noted, the system will tend to meander slowly westward over the next 24 hours as mid level ridging over the eastern CONUS begins to expand westward. Until then, focused low level convergence in the vicinity of the circulation will continue to support a re-invigoration of convection periodically over the next 24 hours. Visible satellite imagery confirms this with an expansive congested cumulus field around the western periphery of the circulation. Radar imagery also supports an uptick in convective intensity over the last hour likely corresponding to increasing instability due to afternoon heating. The main threat will be locally intense rainfall in the convective bands wrapping around the circulation, mainly across parts of Houston and Trinity Counties in the immediate short term. Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches will be possible over the next 24 hours near the center of the circulation with isolated spots picking up 10 inches through Thursday.

Additionally, low level convergence to the south of the circulation may peak late this afternoon along and just north of the I-10 corridor aided by a weak sea breeze. The sea breeze influence may be limited somewhat by the broader flow around the center of Edouard, but high resolution guidance is signaling an uptick in convection in a narrow band in this area. While heavy rainfall would certainly be a concern in this area based on the potential for training over a more urban area, the convection itself would likely be more robust given ample mixed layer instability >2000 J/kg.

We'll have the highest PoPs (~100%) near the center of the circulation across our far northern counties through late this evening with an increase in PoPs (20-50%) along and just north of I- 10 late this afternoon and early evening. Otherwise, convection should be tied closely to the center of circulation overnight tonight. The remnant circulation should track farther west on Thursday with additional rain chances mostly across our north and northwest counties. Scattered afternoon sea breeze activity is expected and we'll maintain some storm chances farther south through the afternoon.

Dunn

LONG TERM

(Friday through next Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

By Friday, the low level circulation will largely be absorbed into the mean flow, but a pronounced weakness in the 700-500 mb heights will linger south of an expanding ridge axis. There will likely be some weak forcing for ascent tied to the mid level disturbance and with precipitable water values still above 2 inches, we should see additional widely scattered afternoon showers and storms tied to an active sea breeze. PoPs will remain relative high both Friday and Saturday to account for this. While the upper ridge does expand westward through the weekend, its influence will primarily be across the Southern Plains leaving a deep easterly flow in place across southeast TX. Ample deep layer moisture and a lack of broad upper subsidence should support daily afternoon storm chances into next week.

Dunn

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 129 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

As TD Edouard passes to our NW, we can expect occasional bands of showers and thunderstorms with MVFR cigs/vis to impact most of our TAF sites. Within more intense SHRA, gusts of 20 to 25 kts can occur. CAMs are honing in on a band of SHRA, with potential TSRA, to impact the TAF sites along and north of I-10 within the 20 to 03Z period. Since uncertainty remains regarding the coverage and intensity of these storms, PROB30s were used. Past 03Z, VFR conditions prevail until another round of rain from the remains of Edouard arrives. While significant uncertainty remains concerning the timing and intensity of this second round of rain, there is enough of a signal in the CAMS to place a PROB30 with MVFR cigs/vis and -SHRA for the most northern TAF sites in the 12Z to 18Z period. There is potential for the MVFR cigs/vis to reach IAH, but confidence is too low to include it currently. To account for rain reaching further south, PROB30s with SHRA were included for tomorrow morning and afternoon for IAH, HOU, and SGR. Winds will generally be out of the SE throughout today before turning more S overnight and Thursday.

JMG

MARINE

Issued at 104 PM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Southwest winds around the broader circulation of TD Edouard will gradually give way to onshore flow later today and tonight. Winds will generally be around 10 kt with intermittent higher gusts especially in scattered thunderstorms. Seas 2 to 3 feet will become 1 to 2 feet later tonight through the end of the week. Low storm chances will persist into next week.

Dunn

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 93 75 95 / 30 40 20 30 Houston (IAH) 79 92 78 94 / 50 50 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 91 83 91 / 10 30 30 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164.

Flood Watch through Thursday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-196- 198>200-212-213-300-313.

GM...None.