textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon. Some storms will be capable of becoming strong to severe through early this evening. Damaging winds, hail, localized heavy rain and an isolated tornado or two are the main hazards.

- Hazardous marine and beach conditions will persist today through Thursday with strong winds and seas. There is also a high risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through this evening.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend, followed by another cool-down after the arrival of a strong cold front early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Radar has blossomed and will continue to do so ahead of a pre- frontal boundary that is extending across Southeast Texas early this afternoon. The environment remains conducive to strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of this boundary. A strong deformation zone with robust frontogenesis has provided the region with ample lift. Strong 0-6 km shear (50-60 kts), and moderate instability are sufficient to support some stronger updrafts capable of producing wind gusts from 45 to 60 mph. Given 0-1 km shear of around 20 knots and 0-2 km VGA between 0.27-0.35; an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out. The risk of severe weather increases as the storm moves east-northeast into the Lower MS Valley later this afternoon and evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect for most of Southeast Texas through 6 PM this evening. Localized heavy rainfall is also expected along and ahead of this boundary with rainfall rates of 1 to 2 in/hr. Highest storm totals expected north of I-10 through sunset. Rain/storms will gradually taper off from west to east this evening.

The main cold front will be reaching the region around sunset, bringing strong northwest winds in its wake. Breezy to windy conditions are expected tonight with gusts between 15 to 25 mph at times. Strongest gusts are expected over the bays and coastal waters where gusts from 30 to 40 knots are expected.

Drier and cooler conditions will filter in behind the front, leading to a pleasant Thursday. Highs will generally range in the 60s under mostly sunny skies. Winds should weaken through the day, as pressure gradient slackens.

A warm up will return Friday into the weekend with highs gradually warming into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. The good news (if you enjoy Spring-like conditions) is that cooler and breezy weather returns early next week as another strong cold front moves through the region.

JM

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect MVFR to VFR conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms as a second cold front passes through SE Texas this evening. Chance for rain ends and skies will be lifting and clearing just before 05Z tonight as drier air moves into the region. Winds tonight into 12Z Thu will be NW-N around 16-22 KTS with gusts of 24-30 KTS inland and 20-30 KTS with gusts up of 25-35 KTS along the coasts. There is the potential for LLVL Wind Shear during the overnight hours, which may be added to the 06Z TAF issuance. From around 12Z-18Z, expect N-NE winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS inland, slightly stronger along the coasts. Winds will begin to relax after 18Z, with calm VRB winds expected Thu night.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop and move across the Bays and Gulf waters through early this evening. This is in response to a cold front that will be entering the coastal waters early this evening. The main concern will be strong winds and building seas in the wake of the front. North to northwest winds around 20 to 30 knots with gusts 35 knots and seas from 5 to 10 ft are expected late this evening into Thursday afternoon. Gale conditions are expected through the overnight, with gusts up to 40 knots through early Thursday morning. Gale Warnings and Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Strong onshore winds will also lead to low water levels across the bays during low tide times on Thursday. Latest PTESS suggest water levels as low as 0.5 - 1.0 below MLLW; therefore a Low Water Advisory will be possible in future updates. A gradual improve in winds and seas conditions is expected by early Thursday evening with onshore winds quickly resuming through the night.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 66 41 75 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 49 67 46 75 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 66 57 69 / 20 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350- 370.

Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ355- 375.