textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of dense fog, both inland and marine, expected tonight into Saturday morning. Dense Fog Advisories are in effect.

- Fairly strong cold front, and associated scattered showers/storms in advance, will pass through Saturday night into early Sunday morning. Near to below freezing temperatures expected north of I-10 Sunday night into Monday morning.

- Warming trend going into the middle of next week with temperatures back into the 70s by Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Saturday morning. Woah...even the first sentence has been obscured by the fog! Speaking of that, visibilities began to decrease as early as 8pm with Angleton reporting in quarter-mile visibility just before 8:30pm. On top of the elevated low level moisture and light winds overnight, there were a few scattered showers earlier this afternoon south of I-10. This typically results in even more favorable environment for dense fog. The fog is expected to be at its most dense in the few hours leading up to sunrise and an hour or so afterwards (generally 4am- 8am). If you have plans to hit the roadway on Saturday morning, be sure to take extra precautions to travel safely.

Moisture continues to increase as onshore flow persists along with convergence along an approaching cold front leading to continuous chances for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Shower/storm chances will be at their highest as the cold front pushes through Southeast Texas. Additionally, another round of dense fog is likely Saturday night into early Sunday morning until the front pushes through. The general timeframe for FROPA looks to be entering the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods around midnight (early Sunday morning) and near the coast or offshore by sunrise. Once the front pushes offshore, our attention shifts from the fog and the rain to cold temperatures.

Saturday's high temperatures will be in the mid to upper 70s and that'll follow a typical diurnal pattern. Sunday, on the other hand, will be where the high temperature occurs before sunrise for most locations due to the passage of the cold front. Temperatures will hover around the mid 50s to low 60s throughout the day on Sunday along with breezy northeasterly winds...so your weather app showing a high temperature in the mid to upper 60s will be a bit misleading. Our attention then turns to Sunday night into Monday morning where near to below freezing temperatures are anticipated across most of Southeast Texas. Low temperatures will range from the upper 20s to mid 30s across the area. Houston County (not the city) could flirt with a brief hard freeze. For what it's worth, deterministic model guidance came in a little bit colder and brings below freezing temperatures down to northern portions of Harris County. The big question is will we see freezing temperatures in the Houston metro area. The answer is...maybe!

The latest NBM probabilities reflect a 30-45% probability for below freezing temperatures in the City of Houston. Either way, it's going to be cold, so be sure to take the proper precautions to keep yourselves and your loved ones safe. Remember to protect the four P's: People, Pets, Plants, Pipes (Pipes: mainly for those in the Piney Woods). Freeze Warnings (for counties that haven't had their seasonal Freeze Warning yet) are likely, and we'll at least be near Cold Weather Advisory territory with wind chill values ranging from the low to upper 20s across the area.

High temperatures on Monday will only top out in the low to mid 50s. Monday will be mostly sunny, but cloud cover is expected to gradually increase from west to east late in the day as PVA increases along with increasing low level moisture. Onshore flow fully returns by Tuesday, which takes us on a warming trend through the end of the work week. High temperatures look to reach back into the 70s by Wednesday and we could be flirting with highs in the 80s on Thursday. From one extreme to the other in just a few days...that's the Southeast Texas way! Rain chances return around midweek as well as a shortwave trough pushes through the area. This may also result in another FROPA towards the end of the work week, but it's way too early to lock it in.

Very Early Christmas Outlook ----------------------------

Christmas is less than two weeks away and I'm sure some of you have already seen what the long range model guidance trend has been indicating for weather in Southeast Texas. Santa...you'll want to listen in on this too! The Climate Prediction Center's 8-14 day temperature outlook was updated today (or yesterday depending on when you're reading this) which is valid for December 20-26. It shows a LOT of red across the CONUS and would you believe it that the reddest of the reds is right over Southeast Texas?! That means that there's a greater than 90% probability of above normal temperatures for this period...which just so happens to include Christmas Eve/Day. Normal temperatures for this time of year is high temperatures in the low 60s and low temperatures in the low 40s...so there's a 90+% probability that our temperatures will be above that. Naturally your next question will be, well just how warm will it be? My answer is...I don't know! It's way too early to know exactly what the temperatures will be, but this time next week we'll at least have a general idea.

The most prominent colors are red and green. We have the red for very likely above normal temperatures, but do we have the green to go along with it on the precipitation outlook? Survey says....nope. How does a nice tan sound? Maybe if you look at it long enough it can kind of pass as gold...but yes Southeast Texas has slightly higher probabilities of seeing below normal precipitation for the week of Christmas. This probability is only ~37%, so there's still ~30% probabilities of seeing near normal to above normal precipitation. Long story short, this one's quite a bit more uncertain than the temperature outlook. I had been wishing for a repeat of the Christmas miracle of 2004, but sadly the chances of a white Christmas in Southeast TX are slim to none. I mean we could still have fog, but it's not the same :(

TL;DR: Christmas is very likely to feature above normal temperatures.

Batiste

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

Fog, dense in spots, in process of cropping up across the area and now in the time of keeping TAFs in line with obs in the degradation in flight conditions. Poor VSBY should persist past sunrise, with a slow, gradual rise back to just barely VFR is still expected late this afternoon. Non-zero chance for -SHRA this afternoon, but still not enough confidence for an explicit TAF mention yet. For now, that remains in the IAH extended when the cold front approaches.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 PM CST Fri Dec 12 2025

The initial marine concern will be reduced visibility due to sea fog and inland fog spilling into the upper bays. Model guidance indicated the potential for widespread dense fog overnight into Saturday morning followed by another round Saturday night into early Sunday morning until a cold front pushes through. Outside of the fog, light southeasterly winds, 1-3 ft seas, and chances for scattered showers are expected through Saturday night. The cold front looks to be near or off the coast by sunrise on Sunday morning with strong northeasterly winds and elevated seas in its wake through Monday morning. Gale force gusts will be possible over the Gulf waters throughout the day on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed Sunday morning through Monday morning, and we'll continue to monitor model trends for any abnormally low water potential in the bays. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout the day on Monday with onshore flow returning Monday night.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 60 75 51 57 / 10 20 30 0 Houston (IAH) 63 76 56 63 / 10 30 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 63 73 58 65 / 10 20 60 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Saturday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.