textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will mark the beginning of a warming trend, though this first warmer day will only see temperatures slightly higher than Wednesday. More marked increases in temps will kick in through the weekend and into the first half of next week.

- Gusty winds and somewhat elevated winds offshore will be diminishing as the day progresses. Upper portions of Galveston Bay will see some negative water levels around low tide cycles through at least Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After Tuesday's cold front, we did get chilly overnight, but much more of the type of winter type typical of winter in Southeast Texas, and warmer than the cold we had to close out January. That seasonably cool vibe carried through the day, and should be the expectation for Thursday as well. In fact, the forecast is for temps to get colder by dawn on Thursday morning than the previous night, with all but the core of Houston's heat island and the immediate coast looking to fall into the 30s. Still, we don't look to fall too terribly far below average, as despite the scary sound of 30s area-wide, only isolated spots north of Huntsville are expected to reach the freezing mark.

Continued sun and fair weather will help Thursday afternoon, as will building high pressure. Though, with the chilly start to the day, forecast highs are only a scoch higher Thursday than Wednesday's observed values. The more significant part of the warming trend will kick in after that, and especially once onshore flow becomes fully established Saturday night. Fair weather, stacked ridging, plenty of sun, and onshore flow keeping up the overnight temperature flow is a good recipe for sending temperatures well above seasonal averages.

How high are we talking? Well, speaking deterministically, I do have highs in the lower 80s trying to sneak in early next week. Overnight, forecast lows are about as close to average highs for this time of year than average lows...or closer! Of course, as much as I'd like my single value numbers to be perfect, I know things won't *exactly* turn out that way, just mostly turn out that way. Let's fuzz things up a bit while we explore that a bit.

Looking at the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means, we see the potential for upper-end temperatures emerging from Friday onward. While not widespread across the area, mean 850 temps above the 90th percentile emerge, as do 500 mb heights. In fact, this trend is probably even clearer in mid-level heights, with large swaths of the area getting above the 97th percentile (NAEFS) or even the 99th percentile (Euro Ensemble) Wednesday. All in all, this paints a pretty high confidence picture of strong ridging aloft, helping drive potential for well above-average temperatures.

This is backed up in the Euro Ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index, where we continue to get suggestive hints at some potential for extreme high temperatures. Important to note, of course, that "extreme" here means relative to early February, not for Southeast Texas in general. A day that particularly stands out to me is Wednesday. That's when we get those real high percentile 500 mb heights, and the EFI starts to show areas in our west exceeding 0.7 - a noticeable boost to confidence over the speckles of stuff over 0.5 we discussed yesterday.

Ultimately, this has me quite comfortable with not only following the deterministic NBM's trend of temperatures, but in going ahead and modestly hedging warmer than it by replacing it with the NBM 50th percentile where those median temps are higher than the deterministic. On Wednesday, should confidence continue to build, we may need to even explore higher in the probabilistic distribution!

Now, while most of the talk is about temperatures, we're not necessarily looking entirely for fair weather in this forecast period. Tuesday looks interesting as a quick, but potent upper trough shoots through the region, giving us a chance for a quick hitter shot of rain. By how much I've talked up Wednesday, you can tell it's not going to be a prolonged impact, but it looks like a solid enough shortwave (it has to be, to briefly subdue 90th percentile plus mid-level ridging!) to bring us a round of showers. And...if all the ingredients line up right, maybe even some thunderstorms with an isolated stronger to severe storm. That would really be trending towards more of a worst case scenario, fortunately, not the most likely one. Am I trying to jinx that scenario out of existence by bringing it up 6 days out? Maybe! But also, it's not something I can completely dismiss at this range.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 513 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail for the next 30+ hours. Generally clear skies and light n/nw winds this morning backing to the w/sw as the day progresses. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1155 PM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Strong north winds and building seas persist overnight before gradually diminishing by early Thursday. Winds become lighter and more westerly on Friday and Saturday, before shifting to be more southerly Saturday night. Dry weather continues through into early next week before our next chance of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

Closer to shore, low water levels at times of low tide continue to plague Galveston Bay, particularly around and above Morgan's Point. Wednesday evening's low tide cycle saw water levels slip to 1.3 feet below MLLW, and low tides around that -1 foot threshold are expected through at least Friday morning's low tide cycle, and potentially even into the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 43 79 47 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 46 75 49 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 52 66 54 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.