textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot weather with low humidity this afternoon. A gradual increase in humidity begins late this evening.

- Unsettled weather next week with increasing rain and storm chances, peaking from Wednesday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Moisture will begin to ease back into the area this evening, and we will see moisture continue to gradually increase through the forecast period. Highs for the week will start out slightly above normal, leading to hot and humid conditions Sunday through around Tuesday. The increase in moisture will also contribute to isolated, diurnally-driven showers and storms during this time.

After Tuesday we will see the pattern change with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances Wednesday through the weekend. Plenty of moisture will be available to work with over the area as persistent southeasterly flow in the low-levels brings in moisture from the Gulf. Simultaneously, a deepening upper-level trough will allow Pacific moisture to funnel through and interact with remnants from the Pacific storm, Polo. Ensembles continue to show PWAT values increasing to the 99th percentile towards mid-week, and remaining in the 90th percentile through the rest of the period.

Models continue to diverge on the timing, coverage, and rainfall amounts. The GFS has backed off on rainfall over our area, keeping the heaviest rainfall across the Hill Country and into North Texas, and it remains the more progressive solution. ECMWF continues to be the slowest solution, and also keep the highest rainfall just to our west. While the highest rainfall amounts continue to be forecast just to our west, the probabilities of receiving greater than 1" of rainfall have increased to around 50-60% for the area for Thursday and Friday with the probability of greater than 2" of rainfall around 30-40% across the area. (so not completely bad news...) It will be worth monitoring over the coming days to see the evolution of the trough and how it impacts QPF. As the previous forecaster stated, the main takeaway is to focus on impacts and not the total amounts.

To end on a bit more good news, rainfall should keep temperatures on the cooler side, with highs topping out in the 80s for the area.

Bailey

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

VFR conditions will continue this TAF cycle. VRB overnight winds will be ESE/SE by late morning and persist throughout the day. Any isolated showers that form are expected to stay offshore, keeping all TAF sites rain free.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Marine conditions will remain quiet, with light onshore wind and seas through early next week. Northeast to east winds will become southeast through the weekend, with southeast winds persisting through the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible through the weekend, though minimal impacts are anticipated. Look for unsettled weather to impact the upper Texas coast towards the middle of the week. Periods of rain and thunderstorms, along with elevated winds and building seas are expected, with the latter two likely reaching advisory levels.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 71 97 73 97 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 82 88 / 10 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.