textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds will be possible with the thunderstorms.

- A stalled boundary and deep tropical moisture will lead to scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms on Monday. Locally heavy rainfall with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall across most of SE Texas.

- Additional showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Tuesday. Greatest chances of locally heavy rainfall will be in the Brazos Valley, but isolated downpours will be possible across all of SE Texas.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Deep tropical moisture has continue to advect into SE Texas with satellite derived PWAT values around 2.1-2.2". This high moisture combined with daytime heating has led to the development of widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage today is expected to be mostly confined to areas along and south of I-10, but isolated activity will be possible across the Piney Woods as well. Storms that develop in the Piney Woods region will have the potential to produce some locally strong wind gusts, but the severe potential for these storms is limited.

A weak, slow-moving (and eventually stalling) boundary is expected to sag into the area from the north on Monday helping to enhance the shower and thunderstorm coverage to be for most of SE Texas. This boundary combined with high PWATs (near 2.2-2.3") will lead to scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity through most of Monday with the greatest coverage expected during the late morning through the early evening hours. A lull in the shower and thunderstorms is expected Monday night, but additional scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will continue on Wednesday, but chances beyond Wednesday are quite low (less than 15 PoPs).

The high PWATs this week will allow for the thunderstorms that develop to produce localized downpours. Minor urban ponding is expected to be the primary concern, but minor flooding will be possible in areas of poor drainage. Overall looking at up to 1-3" of rainfall through Tuesday with locally higher amounts of 3-5" possible if multiple thunderstorms happen to move over the same area.

WPC has highlighted portions of our region in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook over the next few days: - Today, 6/12: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for all of SE Texas. - Monday, 6/13: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for most of SE Texas, with the Matagorda Bay region in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4). - Tuesday, 6/14: A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the Brazos Valley area, with the rest of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4).

Increased cloud cover and rain chances will keep temperatures on the cooler side during the daytime with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 80s to low 90s through midweek. With less rain chances heading into the end of the weekend and into next weekend, the threat of hot and humid conditions return. Afternoon high temperatures are expected to climb into the mid-90s by Friday, and the parts of the region climbing into the upper 90s by next weekend with heat indices back into the triple digits.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 700 PM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

Lingering showers and thunderstorms mainly north of I-10 will persist over the next few hours before dissipating. Conditions outside of the rain are VFR, but anticipate some MVFR to IFR ceilings filtering in on Monday morning for the northern terminals. The next round of SH/TS is expected to develop during the mid-morning hours on Monday (a few hours earlier right along the coast). Ceilings and visibilities are likely to be at least MVFR underneath any downpours along with the potential for gusty winds. The highest confidence window for convective impacts is during the late morning into the afternoon hours which has been covered by a mixture of TEMPOs and PROB30s. Activity begins winding down after 00Z/Tuesday, but some lingering showers may persist into the evening hours. Another round of MVFR ceilings is possible for the northern terminals early Tuesday morning. Winds will be light and variable overnight and remain mainly below 10 kt on Monday outside of any convection and be predominantly southerly to southeasterly.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1056 AM CDT Sun Jul 12 2026

South to southeasterly winds around 10-15kts and 2-4ft seas will prevail through most of this week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some producing locally heavy rainfall, will be possible during the late night to early morning hours through at least midweek. The majority of the activity is expected to move inland by the mid-morning hours each day, but isolated afternoon activity will still be possible over the coastal waters. Lower rainfall chances are expected to return by Thursday, but very isolated overnight activity will still be possible.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 89 74 86 / 30 60 70 90 Houston (IAH) 78 90 76 87 / 40 80 60 80 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 81 88 / 50 60 60 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.