textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers are making their way into the area overnight, and will continue into Wednesday. Isolated lightning strikes can also be expected, and the strongest of the day's rains closer to the coast may become locally heavy, but flooding rains are not anticipated.

- A cold front on Thursday will very briefly pull back warm weather to more seasonably cool and dry conditions on Friday.

- The cooler weather will quickly exit however, as a very warm pattern is expected this weekend into early next week. Though the most likely scenario results in temperatures a little below record values, a warmer outcome would begin to put daily high temperature records under threat.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Well, we had a short little visit from wintry cold, then winds have flipped back around to onshore flow, making things warmer but also very much into a more familiar type of winter around here - warm and gloomy, as clouds...and now showers are being seen across much of the area along with patchy fog.

Look for those showers to continue through much of the day Wednesday, especially closer to the coast. An upper trough will be taking its time to make its way through the region, and though rain generally won't be terribly heavy with guidance generally indicating less than half an inch of rain, we can expect a good amount of coverage of mostly lighter showers. Now, with that said, precipitable water is increasing to 125-150 percent of normal per satellite PWAT estimates along with the influx of these showers, so we could see the strongest showers put down some locally heavy rain and some isolated lightning strikes. On top of the rain, patchy fog will also look to hang around in this soupy environment.

By the time the upper shortwave trough makes it out, it'll be time to get ready for our next cold front! I'm not anticipating much in the way of rain here, as the most significant moisture looks to be tied to the upper trough that just exited the region. I've got some slight chance PoPs for light showers early on Thursday, but otherwise keep the forecast dry. The main impact from this front will be a whopping one (1) day with more seasonable temperatures and a much drier airmass.

After that brief dip back down closer to average for mid to late- December, ridging builds stronger over the Southern tier of the United States, and will pretty much dominate the rest of the forecast period (and probably beyond? We've got time to talk about that later). The big upshot here is that we have several days of above average warmth headed our way, and depending on just how strongly the ridging builds in, some record highs may eventually come under fire. Look for widespread highs in the upper 70s to even around 80 degrees in the hotspots as early as Saturday, and continuing right on through the end of the forecast period.

For now, I'm hewing pretty closely to NBM as it seems to have a good handle on the qualitative trend, and without a lot of confidence in just how strong the ridge ultimately will be, it is probably a really good place to start. However, with record highs for this time of year also mostly in the low 80s, it's worth exploring the higher end of the probability distribution just to see what it would take to start looking at explicit record heat in the forecast. And, uh...it turns out it doesn't take a lot! Step things up to just the 75th percentile for high temps, and we get uncomfortably close to records on Saturday, and right there amongst them on Sunday. So...while not necessarily the most likely outcome right now, clear record heat is very much a plausible thing we could be looking at sometime this weekend into early next week. For those who would rather not welcome Santa with record highs, the forecast has been pretty stable, with not much of an upward trend. Granted, past performance does not guarantee future results, but if you're a fan of it being cooler, you're just gonna have to take what you can get right now.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 508 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Widespread showers along the coast and scattered showers inland will persist through the morning, then decreasing coverage is expected this afternoon with lingering showers possible along the coast through this evening.

IFR conditions will generally prevail through the day with CIGs down to around 700ft with patchy fog/mist possible. There may be periods of MVFR conditions this afternoon/evening, but overall IFR conditions will prevail today. LIFR conditions will begin to emerge around midnight tonight and persist through tomorrow morning with CIGs down to below 500ft and patchy fog. Fog may be dense at times south of I-10.

Generally SE winds will prevail today around 5-10kt, becoming variable overnight, then gradually turning westerly through the day tomorrow ahead of an approaching cold front.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1124 PM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Onshore, fairly light onshore winds will continue until a front pushes through Thursday evening. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are already spreading across the area, and can be expected to persist through Wednesday. Along with the rain, patchy fog is a possibility in the northern bays late tonight into Wednesday morning, and again Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Once the front is through, look for moderate to strong north to northeast winds, which may warrant Small Craft Advisories Thursday night, especially over the Gulf. Onshore winds quickly resume Friday night. With moisture returning, we will have to watch out for sea fog again this weekend and early next

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 61 76 41 / 30 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 68 60 77 47 / 40 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 62 76 54 / 60 20 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.