textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Upper Texas coast and adjacent waters through early Friday. Tropical Storm Bertha is forecast to weaken as it approaches southeast Texas Thursday afternoon into Thursday night.

- Hazardous heat is possible today across the Brazos Valley and up through the Piney Woods where heat index values could reach 110 degrees.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Tropical Storm Bertha will make its approach to the Upper Texas Coast late this afternoon into this evening. However, this system will be rather lopsided with most of the showers and storms displaced to the south of its center. This system will be weakening on approach as it battles the dry air, wind shear, and land interaction with Louisiana. A tropical Storm Warning is in effect from coastal Brazoria County up to Chambers County. This is where the highest possibility of gusts of 40-45 mph resides, mostly in any rain bands. Other than this, significant impacts are not expected. Rainfall totals will be light enough to preclude a threat of flash flooding. Probability of 2 inches of rain or more is low, and mainly focused on the coast south of Galveston. Some minor coastal flooding is possible near times of high tide from the Bolivar Peninsula eastward where tides may run a couple feet above normal. There is also a high risk of rip currents today along area beaches. The timing of impacts is mostly this afternoon into this evening as the system quickly weakens upon moving onshore.

Outside of the tropical impacts, it'll be another hot day with highs in the mid to upper 90s north of I-10 and low 90s south. The extra humidity in place will make it feel more like 105-110, and a Heat Advisory has been issued for the Brazos Valley and up into the Piney Woods.

Beyond Thursday, ridging resumes its hold across the central and western US, keeping us in a hot, dry pattern through early next week. A few residual showers are possible Friday, but overall rain chances dwindle to near 10% or less. We may have more hazardous heat heading into the weekend, but forecast heat index values are just below advisory levels right now. But we'll monitor those trends over the coming days.

Young

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

We will continue to see showers and storms moving across SE TX from NE to SW and will mostly affect IAH, HOU, SGR, GLS, and LBX through around 02-03Z. Expect MVFR vis/cigs along with VRB winds around 10-15KTS with gusts of around 20-25KTS with these storms. Clear to partly cloudy skies are expected later tonight through early Thu morning with light VRB winds.

After 15Z Thu, winds turn more NE and increase as TS Bertha approaches Galveston Bay region. Winds will continue to increase throughout the afternoon and evening as Bertha then moves W-NW across our region. Winds are expected to be strongest along and near the coast and some areas near and east of I-45. MVFR to VFR cigs is expected, in particular the afternoon to evening hours. We can also expect iso-sct showers and thunderstorms associated to Bertha's rainbands throughout the day. Have placed PROB30s for this TAF issuance to reflect the stronger winds and chance for showers and thunderstorms and may possibly be upgraded to a TEMPO once additional Hi-Res data becomes available. TS Bertha is expected to exit the Brazos Valley region Thu night.

Note: Conditions with TS Bertha could change within the next 24-48 hrs, please continue to monitor the latest forecast for TS Bertha.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1149 PM CDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Light to moderate west to southwest winds and seas around 2 to 3 ft continue this evening. Influence from Bertha will begin Thursday as winds increase to around 20 to 30 knots with gusts up to 45 knots. Seas will increase to around 4 to 9 feet. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for Galveston Bay and the waters off of Galveston Bay and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for Matagorda Bay and adjacent waters through Friday morning. Conditions will improve going into Friday with winds light to moderate out of the south to southeast.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 78 94 77 95 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 94 79 97 / 50 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 40 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177-195>199-210>212-226-235-335.

Beach Hazards Statement from noon CDT today through this evening for TXZ436>439.

Beach Hazards Statement Friday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-350- 370.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-350-370.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-375.