textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and breezier today with a slight chance of light rain (mostly south of I-10).

- Small Craft Advisory for the Bays and Gulf through Monday morning due to hazardous winds and seas.

- Gradual warm-up expected for the second half of the week along with the chance for showers.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Saturday's showers and storms are departing to the east while cooler, breezy conditions filter southward into SE Texas in the wake of a cold front. Average afternoon highs are near 80 degrees this time of year. We will be cooler than normal today, with afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s (perhaps cooler in some areas if cloud cover is thick enough). Despite the departure of the aforementioned showers/storms, there remains a parade of mid/upper vort maxes that are streaming into the region from Mexico. South Texas should have sufficient moisture and lift to keep rain chances elevated for much of Sunday. For SE Texas, I suspect that we'll have lift and sufficient mid/upper moisture for rain. However, LL moisture will be lacking as dry air advects southward behind the front. HRRR and 3KM NAM show this well, featuring a fairly active simulated radar activity while the sfc QPF below is rather tame.....a bark bigger than the bite situation. That being said, I cannot promise you that we won't have at least some rain shower activity, especially for those south of I-10 and especially near the coast. Waves of mid/upper disturbances will keep a chance of showers across our southern and coastal zones into Sunday night. PoPs range from ~20% near I-10 to 30-50% at the coast. Near Matagorda Bay and areas offshore, PoPs are higher (60-70%) due to higher LL moisture. Sunday night is looking a tad chilly, with lows ranging from the upper 40s in our northernmost zones to near 60 at the coast. Worth mentioning that guidance varies significantly regarding the northern extent of the rain today.

Temperatures are expected to skew a little cooler than normal through mid-week. But the return of deep onshore flow will gradually increase both temperatures and humidity as the weak progresses. By Thursday and Friday, many locations could be back above 80 degrees with dew points well into the 60s. Large scale lift is expected to enter the picture toward's end, increasing the chance of showers and thunderstorms by Thursday and especially Friday.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 606 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Ceilings are gradually lifting as deeper, cooler air filters in from the north. Metro & coastal areas should trend toward VFR as the morning progresses (though overcast mid-upper level decks should prevail). NNE winds are in the process of increasing and expect some gusts at or slightly above 20kt during the day. Some mid-upper level disturbances pass overhead today & tonight and could see some returns on radar. With the exception of offshore areas, recent model guidance suggests the vast majority of it should mainly be virga inland considering the dry subcloud layer. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Strong north to northeast winds and building seas are expected today. Winds could weaken somewhat Sunday afternoon before increasing again late in the evening into Monday morning. There is a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms through Sunday night and possibly into Monday. Winds may gust near 30 knots at times, with offshore seas easily reaching 6-9 feet. Winds and seas should decrease by Monday afternoon. Expected a gradual veering of the winds, with east to southeast flow by the second half of the week. We are monitoring the potential for a moderate to strong fetch across the northern Gulf later in the week that could enhance waves and swell. Based of some of the latest trends, it's possible that the current wave height forecast is too conservative for Thursday into next weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 51 72 47 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 71 53 74 52 / 10 10 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 60 71 63 / 30 30 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.