textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warmer conditions expected Sunday into Monday.

- Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

In the near term, light and variable winds along with abundant low- level moisture will result in low clouds and areas of fog through early this morning. Latest HREF/RRFES guidance shows probabilities of visibility at or below one mile around 40 to 65%, with low to medium probabilities elsewhere. Fog could be dense at times and is expected to dissipate by mid morning. Otherwise, a warmer and drier day is anticipated today and Monday as a mid- level ridge moves in, providing increased subsidence across the region. Highs will generally be in the mid to upper 80s with overnight lows in the upper 60s and low 70s.

The next rainmaker arrives by Tuesday as a deepening longwave trough moves over the Plains, dragging its associated cold front southeastward across SE TX. This trough will enter the western CONUS today, amplifying and deepening across the Rockies through Monday. At the same time, persistent warm and more humid surface flow will continue to surge inland from the Gulf, keeping PWs in the 1.5 to 1.9 inch range. As a result, showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Latest guidance, including the NAM brings the boundary across our northwestern counties early in the morning, though most solutions show a slow progression, pushing the front off the coast late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Regarding severe weather potential, the greatest probabilities remain north of our region; however, with decent deep layer shear, a few strong to severe wind gusts cannot be ruled out. Localized heavy rainfall is also possible given the slow progression hinted at by deterministic models. However, uncertainty remains regarding where the axis of heavy rainfall will set up as it will depend on the evolution and timing of the FROPA. While rainfall will provide much needed relief to our ongoing drought, isolated localized flooding cannot be ruled out. Will continue to monitor the evolution and progression of the low/FROPA today and Monday for specific local impacts.

A drier airmass filters in behind the FROPA, resulting in relatively dry conditions. The GFS and ECMWF ensembles, including AI keep low level moisture across the region as a weak trough moves through on Thursday. Kept PoPs low in line with NBM guidance, leaving only a slight chance for Thursday. Overall, low rain chances remain in the forecast for the remainder of the week with near seasonal temperatures.

JM

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Low-level moisture and light winds overnight bring expansive IFR conditions (even LIFR for some sites) between 05-15Z Sunday. Widespread fog should dissipate following sunrise, but the low-lying ceilings linger until late morning. Afterwards, VFR conditions will persist through Sunday afternoon. Light winds dominate the entirety of the TAF cycle - VRB, but generally from the E/NE. By around 02- 06Z Monday, MVFR ceilings redevelop, mostly around the coast and east of I-45.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 1202 AM CDT Sun Nov 1 2026

Light east to southeast flow and seas around 2 to 4 ft are expected today. Southeasterly winds will gradually strengthen Monday ahead of an approaching cold front that will move over the Gulf waters by Tuesday evening. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the front. A few storms may become strong, capable of producing gusts of 35 to 40+ knots. Moderate to strong northwest winds and seas of 3 to 5+ ft will be possible late Tuesday into Wednesday. Caution flags or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Light onshore flow is expected to resume by late week/early this weekend.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 66 85 67 78 / 0 0 40 90 Houston (IAH) 68 84 71 80 / 10 10 10 100 Galveston (GLS) 72 80 74 81 / 10 10 0 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.