textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Elevated risk of rip currents remains through at least midweek.

- Gradual warming trend for most of the work week with daily chances for showers/storms.

- A cold front is expected to push through towards the end of the work week bringing cooler, drier conditions to the region.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should facilitate WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures in place throughout much of the work week. Highs will generally be in the upper 80s/90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers and thunderstorms will be possible daily, mainly during the afternoon early this week. A slot of drier air is poised to push in from the east around mid week, resulting in a downturn in rain chances through Thursday. This drier air should also improve overnight cooling, causing inland lows to drop into the mid/upper 60s in spots.

During the day on Thursday, a shortwave over the Central Plains will begin to merge with a trough over Manitoba/Ontario, deepening into a longwave trough as it dig eastward. This system is poised to send a cold front towards southeast Texas, fairly substantial in strength, more akin to what you would expect during the fall. Long range ensembles have done a pretty good job capturing the broad strokes of this FROPA so far, and timing seems to be pretty consistent across runs. There is a strong consensus among LREF ensemble members, which shows the front reaching College Station Friday morning (as indicated by 10m wind direction). Some showers/storms may develop along the cold front, through the aforementioned slot of dry air preceding the FROPA is currently poised to inhibit development.

Windy conditions are anticipated as the cold front pushes through the area, which could result in hazardous marine condition across the bays and Gulf waters. These higher winds may start to develop around Friday afternoon (contingent on FROPA timing). Guidance suggest the strongest winds occuring overnight into Saturday morning, with deterministic models signaling sustained winds reaching around 25-30 knot. Amongst these models, the AiGFS, AiECMWF and Canadian lean a tad more aggressive with winds. Ensembles generally tell a similar story with the uppermost values approaching Gale levels over the Gulf. There is some uncertainty with the full strength of the FROPA. For the time being, there is high (>80%) confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knot across the Gulf between Friday afternoon and Saturday evening.

LREF and GFS ensemble still indicate the coldest/driest conditions should lag behind the FROPA, Saturday afternoon & Sunday morning, which the NBM is also picking up on now as well. As for how cold things will get... thats still has some uncertainty. Multi-run mean temperatures in the GFS have increased compared to days prior, and the dominant LREF cluster has lower midlevel heights east of the longwave trof with higher heights behind it (36% of members). Its entirely possible that much of the colder air swings eastward with the trough/sfc low. Highs for Saturday afternoon are currently forecasted to top out in the 70s/lower 80s. Early morning lows on Sunday are forecasted to reach the 50s/60s. The exact numbers are likely to change these next few days, though generally the spread across ensemble members has been tightening.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Radar shows scattered showers ongoing over the west/southern portion of the I90 TRACON. This activity should continue through the afternoon, dissipating early this evening. CIGs are currently at low-end BKN/OVC VFR levels, and sites may see brief reductions to MVFR throughout the day today. Elevated winds out of the SE remain through the afternoon and decrease by the evening. Early tomorrow morning, an MVFR level cloud deck is expected to fill in for terminals IAH and northward. MVFR CIGs are possible at SGR/HOU, though it is uncertain whether MVFR CIGs will extend that far south. IFR CIGs are possible as well for the northern sites. MVFR CIGs stick around well into the morning hours. SE winds increase tomorrow afaternoon, and another round of scattered showers is expected. Therefore, PROB30s will likely be added/extended in the next TAF package.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon Oct 12 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue throughout most of the work week, prompting caution flags at times. This flow will also result in higher seas, abnormally high water levels (to around 3.5 ft MLLW at high tide), and an elevated risk of rip currents for Gulf-facing beaches. Scattered/isolated showers and storms will be possible early this week, decreasing into Wednesday and Thursday.

A cold front is expected to push through the region on Friday, producing higher winds and seas into the weekend. There is high (>80%) confidence in sustained winds exceeding at least 20 knots across the Gulf between Friday afternoon to Saturday night, thus Small Craft Advisories are likely. Mariners should stay up to date on the forecast as there is potential for strong winds/seas (25-30 knots) and gale conditions, which may develop Friday night/Saturday morning.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 94 75 93 / 20 30 10 40 Houston (IAH) 77 92 77 92 / 30 60 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 86 80 85 / 30 30 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-370-375.