textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense sea fog through this morning.

- Stalled boundary is reinforced and push off the coast as a cold front this afternoon/evening.

- Strong winds follow in the wake of the front through Sunday with elevated to near critical fire weather conditions through Monday.

- Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, warming conditions through Thursday ahead of another cold front around early Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

A stalled frontal boundary is currently positioned along a rough line from Edna to Livingston early today. The slew of short-range models are slow with it's frontal progression, and even the faster outcomes like the ARW don't show it pushing off the coast till this afternoon at the earliest. This means we'll have one more foggy morning across the coast, as the pockets of dense fog over the nearshore coastal waters fill into the bays and surrounding coast zones. Inland and marine Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect until 9 AM today. Fog should begin to thin and burn off with daytime heating.

The front is anticipated to push off the coast some time in the afternoon, though the bulk of the cooler/drier air should lag behind it. While the FROPA timing introduces some uncertainty with respect to temperatures, on the whole daytime conditions should be fairly warm, generally in the 70s to lower 80s across the area. A few showers and the stray storm or two cannot be completely ruled out along the front itself, but otherwise most of SE Texas should stay dry. Cooler, drier and breezy conditions should settle in tonight with early morning lows for Sunday ranging from the upper 30s inland to lower 50s along the coast.

Sunday will start off breezy, but winds should start to ease down throughout the day as surface high pressure fills in over the state. Highs are currently anticipated to top out in the 60s during the daytime, dropping overnight to the 30s/upper 40s early Monday morning. Afternoon RH should drop to around 20-30% across most of the area during the afternoon on Sunday with surface winds around 10- 15 mph with higher gusts. As a result, some areas may experience elevated to near critical fire weather conditions on Sunday and Monday as well. Winds should generally be lighter on Monday, under 10 mph, though RH values are anticipated to fall to 15-20% inland during the afternoon.

High pressure should move off to the SE CONUS on Tuesday, allowing onshore flow to return. This will usher in a gradual warming period through mid week as highs climb to the 70s/80s with morning lows in the 50s/60s. Long range guidance suggest that another cold front will push through the area late in the week, around Thursday night/Friday, bringing another cool down into the next weekend.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 532 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Front has made it through CLL, and making its way through UTS as winds there are shifting and VSBY beginning to improve. First several hours handle the front pushing its way through the remaining terminals, with onshore winds and fog ahead of it. Once front is through, improvement begins first gradually, then rapidly goes to high VFR mid-day/early afternoon across the area.

Back half of the TAF handles increasing north winds, with sustained 10-15 kts and gusts into the middle 20s for most terminals. GLS is a noted example as fetch off Galveston Bay will allow for winds to exceed 20 kts with gusts above 30 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 AM CST Sat Feb 21 2026

Areas of sea fog are expected this morning, but should begin to clear out after sunrise. May see some pockets of dense sea fog linger a tad longer over the nearshore waters, especially near Galveston, but again this should ease up heading into the afternoon as a cold front pushes off the coast. Stronger northerly winds should develop behind the front tonight, reaching 25-30 knots with higher gusts near gale offshore. Seas could reach 6-10 feet with negative tide levels in the bays to as low as -0.5 ft MLLW. Gale Watches remain in effect this evening through early Sunday. Winds decrease throughout Sunday into early Monday with onshore flow resuming on Tuesday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 40 63 36 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 47 64 41 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 51 63 48 / 30 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ214- 236>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355.

Gale Watch from this evening through late tonight for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.