textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid today.

- Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few locally heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Areas of fog are developing across SW portions of our CWA as I write this AFD (~11PM CST Sun). HREF soundings suggest we can expect fog to increase in coverage as the night progresses into the early morning hours. At a minimum, we suspect patchy dense fog Monday morning and I wouldn't be surprised if another Dense Fog Advisory was warranted for parts of the CWA. Any fog should break by mid-morning, yielding to another very warm and humid day. Afternoon temperatures should once again rise into the 80s. A few spots could be near records depending on the sunshine to cloud cover ratio.

While we experience another toasty November day on Monday, a deep layer trough over the Rockies will eject eastward into central CONUS, inducing LL lee-side cyclogenesis in the central plains. The resulting low will have a trailing cold front that pushes through our area on Tuesday. The front will provide lift in an increasingly PWAT rich and sheared environment. Bulk 0-6KM shear values could reach the 40-50 knot range in our northern zones, while areas closer to the coast are expected to peak in the 30-35 knot range. The most robust synoptic scale lift is still expected to be north of our region. That said, the front coupled with the shear may still be enough to initiate some deep convection. The sheared environment most favors our northern counties. However, FROPA timing in our northern zones may be earlier in the day, limiting day time heating and peak instability. Meanwhile, our southern counties will see a later FROPA, meaning they are likely to have more instability but with less robust shear. Though not the 'best' set up for severe thunderstorms, I can't help but think the environment could favor an isolated stronger thunderstorm or two. However, even the normally 'hot' RRFS is just showing a broken line of showers and thunderstorms. In fact, both the RRFS and HRRR show a similar scenario, featuring scattered to numerous showers with a few locally heavier showers and thunderstorms in the mix.

Northwest flow will bring much drier and more seasonal temperatures in the front's wake. Wednesday and Thursday are expected to feature afternoon highs in the upper 70s to near 80, with lows generally in the 50s (60s at the coast and 40s in the coldest Piney Woods spots). Guidance becomes varied later in the week, with a general consensus towards increased mid/upper troughing in the MS River Valley and Midwest. With the pattern change comes the potential for more fronts and perhaps more rain chances. But as the saying goes, the devil is in the details. For now, the late week forecast features a slow decline in temperatures and the return of some modest PoPs.

Self

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Another round of lowering flight conditions tonight, with VSBY already dropping at some southern sites. Widespread IFR (w/ locally LIFR) develops around 10-14Z Monday, with the potential for MVFR CIGs to linger until late morning. At this point, conditions improve to VFR for the afternoon with winds picking up out of the S/SE around 10 kts. Gusts around 20 kts develop between 18-00Z Monday for sites generally north of I-10. Afterwards, ceilings begin dropping again between 00Z-06Z Tuesday, potentially dropping to IFR by the very end of the forecast cycle. No precip for the time being, but we're watching for a FROPA Tuesday.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Patchy inland fog could impact the bays and beaches early this morning. Light southeast winds today should become more light to moderate from the south on Tuesday as a cold front approaches from the northwest. The front is expected to push offshore Tuesday afternoon, bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Gusty northwest winds are expected behind the front, with Small Craft Advisory level conditions possible over the Gulf Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds should decrease on Wednesday, before becoming more northeast on Thursday. By the weekend, building seas and increasing northeast winds could warrant Small Craft Advisory conditions, though confidence in the late week forecast is somewhat low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 85 67 86 69 / 0 0 0 30 Houston (IAH) 84 69 84 72 / 0 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 74 80 75 / 0 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.