textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will push through this morning leading to drier weather for the remainder of the work week.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a few upper level disturbances push into the region.

- Another cold front pushes through by Monday morning bringing another period of cooler, drier weather.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

The past few days have been fairly gloomy, but skies are finally clearing up. The coastal trough has pushed offshore, leaving clear skies in its wake, and only marine areas with partly cloudy skies and scattered showers. Southeast TX is currently situated between a ridge over west CONUS and a weak trough over northeast CONUS. The trough to our northeast will strengthen and dig overnight, pushing a cold front through southeast TX early Thursday morning. The latest surface analysis reveals the front is currently located over central TX, and will gradually move S/SE overnight, pushing offshore by sunrise. Behind the front, expect drier air to filter in and clear skies overhead. The combination of drier air, weak winds, and clear skies may allow for some radiational cooling to take place tonight, particularly for our more northern counties. Expect lows in the low 50s for the Brazos Valley area. Elsewhere, expect lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. A beautiful day is in store for Thursday; expect breezy northerly winds, sunny skies, and dry air. Thanks to those clear skies, Thursday's daytime highs will be a bit warmer, rising to the mid 70s over much of the area.

By Friday, the ridge over west CONUS begins to slide east towards TX, increasing subsidence over the area and tamping down any rain chances. At the same time, a mid-level high strengthens over SE TX, reinforcing the subsidence and keeping the stable, sinking air locked in place. As a result, Friday's temps will be fairly similar to Thursday's; highs in the mid 70s and lows in the 50s-60s. If skies remain clear, another round of radiational cooling may even allow for lows to dip into the 40s in some spots on Friday night!

Rain chances return on Saturday evening as a coastal trough forms along the TX coast, and an upper-level disturbance enters from the west. At the surface, winds return to the south, advecting warm and moist air from the Gulf. The pressure gradient tightens along the coast, resulting in breezy winds and occasional gusts. Moisture wraps around the low, allowing a surge of Gulf moisture to advect inland. Aloft, a trough axis sets up over northwest CONUS, and vort maxes extend southeast from the axis over our area. The upper-level disturbance, plus the help of the coastal trough, increase rain chances starting Saturday evening. Rain chances remain into Sunday thanks to the next upper-level disturbance; an upper-level low makes it's way towards the TX panhandle on Sunday morning, with a sfc low & cold front associated with it. Ahead of the front, moisture should be plentiful due to that advected Gulf moisture, thus, rain chances remain elevated all day. The front pushes south Sunday evening into Monday morning, bringing cooler and drier air in its wake. Ridging builds in over TX, resulting in dry, fall-like weather through the rest of the work week.

MLG/Cotto

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 451 AM CST Thu Nov 12 2026

A weak cold front will continue to push southward and off the coast over the next few hours, clearing out any lingering patchy fog. Northerly winds and clear skies prevail through the rest of the TAF period.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Wed Nov 11 2026

A cold front will move across the waters this morning, with moderate offshore winds developing in its wake. Seas will briefly rise to 3-4 feet, possibly 5 feet over the offshore waters. Caution Flags will be in effect through this afternoon for Galveston Bay and the Gulf waters. Winds relax and seas subside Thursday night into Friday.

Moderate to strong east to southeast winds are expected to develop on Saturday and continue into Sunday as the pressure gradient over the local area tightens and seas will build to 7-10 feet. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will also return as another disturbance moves over Texas. Elevated water levels over the bays are also possible. Rain chances remain in the forecast on Sunday ahead of a stronger cold front, progged to move over the Gulf waters sometime late Sunday into Monday morning. Behind the front, strong northeast winds are expected and seas remain elevated. Thus, Small Craft Advisories will likely remain for the bays and Gulf waters through early next week.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 49 76 50 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 53 75 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 75 62 72 64 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ335-350-355-370-375.