textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry and warmer conditions expected through Monday.

- Cold front showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mostly tranquil conditions are expected through Monday as ridging becomes stronger overhead. The highs will remain in the lower to mid 80s today, accompanied by light variable winds and partly cloudy skies. For tonight, the lows will be in the 60s and skies will become cloudy overnight into early Monday morning. There is also a good chance for areas of patchy to dense fog developing over portions of Southeast Texas. Areas of fog is expected to begin to burn off after 8 AM and could affect the early morning commute. Proceed with caution while driving, in particular across rural areas. By mid morning, cloud decks are expected to gradually lift.

On Monday, a mid to upper level trough will move across the Southern Plains and an associated cold front track eastward from the Texas Panhandle into the central portions of Texas during the day. Winds will strengthen across Southeast Texas during the day as the local pressure gradient becomes stronger ahead of the cold front. Ridging shifts east as the trough makes its way across Texas and we could begin to see some showers and isolated thunderstorms develop over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region Monday night, especially if we begin to have weak vort maxes moving over that region during the nighttime period.

Models have not been consistent with the timing and location of this front over the past few days. Although most models still place the front over or near the Brazos Valley around sunrise, it is slightly slower than some of the previous model runs. Some models have the front over the coastal locations by mid afternoon while others dont push the front towards the coasts until Tuesday evening. For this forecast package, I blended the NBM with CONSAll and have the higher PoPs just ahead and along the front across areas north of I-10 during the morning hours, transitioning to areas near and south of I-10 in the afternoon. Coastal locations could still see showers and isolated thunderstorms during the evening hours. If the front is faster than the current forecast, then we would see the inland showers and thunderstorms ending earlier.

Heavy rainfall can occur at times and we will need to monitor for areas with slow moving storms. Ponding of water along roadways and over low-lying areas is possible. WPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for all of Southeast Texas on Tuesday. Have multiple ways of receiving weather updates and alerts and check traffic conditions before starting your commute.

Mostly dry and cooler conditions are expected on Wednesday and Thursday along with light and variable winds. Hi there Fall :D. Rain chances could potentially increase next weekend in response to another weak cold front moving through.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Mostly VFR conditions expected today along with light east to southeast winds. Cloud decks are expected to re-develop tonight into Monday morning as well as areas of patchy to dense fog. This will lead to periods of IFR to MVFR, possibly even LIFR, for many sites across SE Texas through around 14-15Z on Monday. After 15Z, S-SE winds will increase as the local pressure gradient tightens and fog will quickly burn off. Cloud decks will gradually lift during the morning hours. Mostly VFR conditions are expected Monday afternoon.

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MARINE

Issued at 126 PM CST Sun Nov 1 2026

Light east to southeast winds expected today, becoming southeast and increasing to around 10 kts Monday morning. Winds will briefly reach moderate on Monday night into early Tuesday ahead of an upcoming cold front. The front is expected to move across southeast TX on Tuesday, reaching the coastal Gulf waters sometime Tuesday afternoon or evening. Expect showers and thunderstorms during the day, in particular just ahead and along the cold front. Moderate to strong north to northwest winds and elevated seas are expected in the wake of the front late Tuesday into Wednesday. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Slight chances of rain possible near the end of the work week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 85 66 84 67 / 0 0 0 50 Houston (IAH) 84 68 83 71 / 0 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 72 80 74 / 0 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.