textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the best chances in the afternoon and early evening. While the severe weather risk is low, a few strong storms could potentially produce gusty winds and localized minor flooding.

- Continued hot and humid conditions are expected today, but increased cloud cover and rain chances has lowered the chance for Heat Advisory conditions. Regardless, continue to use heat safety practices.

- Isolated showers and storms possible through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Relief from recent hot and dry conditions i son the way for most of the region today and heading into the weekend as the upper lvl ridge slides slightly westward into the Southern Rockies. This pattern shift brings a northerly flow aloft to the area, opening the path for a series of shortwave disturbances to move across the region. At the surface, we're monitoring a weak frontal boundary extending across the Middle/Lower MS Valley. This boundary is currently supporting an MCS, which will gradually weaken as it moves south toward the LA coast. Hi-Res/CAMs models show activity igniting across the region overnight (2am - 5am) as the frontal boundary associated with the MCS pushes southward. While the bulk of the dynamics and instability will remain to the east, a few overnight and early morning showers and storms could still produce gusty winds around 20 to 30 mph). A lull in precipitation can be expected later this morning, but the boundary is expected to meander near the region, pulling Gulf moisture inland and serving as the focal point for scattered convection later this afternoon.

After morning showers/storms, concentrated primarily north of I-10, additional storm development is expected this afternoon. This coincides with peak daytime heating, the arrival of passing shortwaves aloft, and decent frontogenesis in the 850-700 hPa layer. While the severe weather risk remains low, strong storms capable of producing localized gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Additionally, with PWAT values in the 2.0 to 2.3 inch range, heavy downpours could potentially produce localized minor flooding.

Additional rounds of showers and storms are possible on Friday, with the best chances south of I-10 and over the coastal waters. Ridge aloft expands eastward this weekend into early next week, bringing a more northeasterly flow aloft across the region. At the surface, weak easterly waves/troughs will keep daily rain/storm chances.

In terms of temperatures, some locations west of I-45 could still reach near 100F today. However, increased cloud cover and precipitation chances should keep most other areas in the mid to upper 90s. Beyond Friday, high temperatures will generally remain in the mid 90s.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Widely scattered shra/tsra is expected to diminish this morning. However, we suspect another round of scattered shra/tsra to develop later this afteroon into the evening hours. Though there is an areawide risk of tsra, we think the best chance will be from IAH down to the coast. The wind forecast is more uncertain than usual due to a plethora of outflow boundaries and a weak frontal boundary approaching from the north. Mostly VFR is expected. But IFR-MVFR conditions will be easily accomplished in any tsra. Also could not rule out locally strong tsra wind gusts over 35 knots. For now, the highest gusts we have in our tsra tempo groups in the TAFs are 25 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Thu Aug 27 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds, generally around 10 to 15 knots are expected tonight and Thursday, though a brief wind shift to the west/north is possible after sunrise. Scattered showers and storms are expected today with the best chances by late afternoon through the evening hours. Rain and storm chances will continue overnight and Friday. Strong winds and building seas will be possible near any storms. A daily risk of showers and storms will be possible through the upcoming week. Overall, outside any storms, light to moderate onshore winds and low seas are expected this weekend and into midweek.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 100 76 97 75 / 40 30 10 0 Houston (IAH) 99 79 95 78 / 50 50 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 92 82 90 82 / 20 40 40 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.