textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler and drier air has begun to filter into the area today following yesterday's storms and cold front. But with plenty of sun, highs today will likely be similar to yesterday, albeit with much less humidity.

- A stronger, reinforcing front pushes through the area late tonight. It will bring a much cooler and drier conditions through the holiday.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Much calmer weather prevails today after a rollicking day of storms and at least one tornado (more information on that will be released as our survey crews complete their work today). Modestly cooler and much drier air is working its way into Southeast Texas on northwesterly to northerly winds. However, highs this afternoon are likely going to end up in about the same spot as yesterday, perhaps even a tick higher for some thanks to a day of full sun, rather than yesterday's clouds and storms.

For those who have been loving our torchy autumn, do not get too attached - a reinforcing cold front is on the way, and will make its way through the area late tonight. As cold, dry air surges into the area, tomorrow looks fairly gusty and temperatures look unlikely to get out of the 60s except in the very warmest spots. Of course...this whole time when I'm talking about a big change, this really hinges on the relative difference in temps. When all is said and done, even our chilliest days look to be within 5 degrees of average for late November, so it should still be fairly seasonable.

While I've focused on daytime highs, it's not a meaningfully different story overnight. Wednesday night looks to be the chilliest night of the week, and some folks up north should see lows dip into the middle to upper 30s (Hey there, Houston County! But also portions of Madison, Brazos, and Burleson counties). But ultimately, even my forecast on this night is 3 to 7 degrees below average. Chilly, but not unseasonably so.

Perhaps a more useful way of looking at it heading into winter is the potential for freezing temperatures overnight. And...it's pretty much limited to the Trinity Valley in portions of Houston and Madison counties. Tomorrow night is the main night to look for, when spots right on the river's banks so the probabilities of falling below the freezing mark are as high as 55 percent. Though, beyond the immediate area of the riverbank, that drops off to something more like 1-in-4 or a 1-in-3 odds. Thursday night also has some very low potential if you are right on the river, but on this night, it really is limited to right on the river itself and the NBM probabilities are only 20 percent or lower.

Look for onshore winds to return sometime on Friday, which sends everything right back into a warming, moistening trend, and just how much rebound we get becomes important for this weekend. Yup, the cycle of fronts brings us our next opportunity for one this weekend, and with it our next solid shot for rain and storms. I don't really want to get too speculative on just how this will play out as we are nearly a week out. But from the ensemble data, it seems like we aren't necessarily staring down a big rain event here. This seems fairly reasonable as we only will have onshore flow resume Friday, providing a bottleneck for moisture return. Neither the NAEFS nor the EPS brings back widespread precipitable water values above the 90th percentile, though with values above 1.25 inches, we should be high enough to be reasonably confident in getting some showers and storms.

Beyond that front, we can look for another shot of colder air, and to celebrate us being in December by this point, it may actually feel something like winter (well, Southeast Texas winter, anyway). Again, neither the NAEFS nor the EPS bring 850 temps below the 10th percentile, and there is no signal for exceptional cold in the EPS' Extreme Forecast Index...but in coordination with all our neighboring offices, we settled on temperatures somewhere between the 25th and 50th percentile to start off the new month. Chillier than the NBM deterministic, and something more decidedly colder than average, more in the 10-15 degree range. But, for now it still appears like we'll avoid anything eye-poppingly cold. We've seen little in the way of freeze impact so far this fall, so that potential may be something to watch as we draw closer.

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Main change with this cycle of TAFs is to introduce a LLWS mention tomorrow morning from HOU northward after the passage of a dry, reinforcing cold front overnight. More confidence in hitting the WS thresholds farther north, but cautiously am bringing a mention into the main Houston terminals. Regardless, tomorrow looks rather gusty as the reinforcing airmass surges in.

MARINE

Issued at 112 PM CST Tue Nov 25 2025

Light northwest to north winds through this evening. A push of cool, dry air will move into the waters late tonight and early Wednesday morning. Expect an increase in northeast winds to 20 to 25 knots with gusts of around 30 knots and building seas to match. A Small Craft Advisory is in place on the Gulf waters from late tonight through Wednesday evening. Though winds and seas may diminish just below advisory thresholds late in the week, Onshore winds resume and increase for the weekend when advisories may be needed once more.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 49 63 40 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 55 68 45 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 60 69 57 / 50 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight through Wednesday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 3 AM Wednesday to midnight CST Wednesday night for GMZ350-355-370-375.