textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Slightly cooler temperatures (still above normal) through Saturday.

- Rain and storm chances increase next week.

- Cold front mid-week??

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The weak boundary we have been talking about is in the area, but rather diffuse. From wind observations, it's likely just south of the Houston metro area, but the lower dewpoints (not much lower) are farther north toward Lufkin. Temperatures mid-day are currently running an average of 2-4 degrees cooler than this time yesterday, so at least there's a small improvement! That though with the dewpoints being slightly lower, more efficient warming could still occur this afternoon and bring those temps right back up to near yesterday. A few (very few) showers have been developing south of the front, generally south of a line from Freeport to Victoria. This will continue this afternoon, but likely continue to drift farther south and out of our area.

As the briefly drier air continues to drift in tonight, we will expect to see some cooler low temperatures across the area tonight. Some outlying locations could drop into the upper 60s, but will likely not see that for the city. Climo note: IAH has not had a low temperature below 70 since May 28th. I dont think it happens tonight, but it may not be too far away! (more on that in a moment.) Similar conditions should persist through Friday into Saturday with the slightly cooler temps - low to mid 90s for highs and upper 60s to lower 70s for lows before moisture starts to return with onshore flow later in the weekend.

Moving into next week we'll be watching a pattern change with the ridge that has been in place over us shifting south and weakening a bit. A few things we'll be keeping an eye on...Pacific moisture in the mid-levels, Gulf moisture in the low levels, and a trough progressing eastward from the Pacific. There are differences in timing of especially the Pacific moisture and trough between models, and this phasing will be key to how much deep moisture we get moving toward Texas by mid-week, but the hope is that we can get some increased rain chances in here by mid-week ahead of a cold front. GFS ensembles have been more consistent and wetter for our area while ECMWF has trended toward a the trough weakening as it approaches and a drier solution. So we wont get too specific about the details this far out, but with average or slightly higher than average confidence, have medium to maybe high rain chances Tuesday into Wednesday followed by the first actually noticeable cold front of the season with temps at least back to around normal. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

VFR conditions prevails across the area with predominantly ENE-NE breeze. Increased dry air will reduce rain chances to be absent from the TAFs. If any isol showers develop they will be confined to the coast. The evening will bring relaxing winds to light and VRB. Chances of BR and MVFR CIGs also remain low enough to out of the TAFs due to that previously mentioned dry air. Tomorrows conditions are anticipated to remain similar to today.

CMW

MARINE

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

An isolated shower or storm will continue this afternoon mainly around the Matagorda Bay area. Otherwise expect a moderate northeasterly flow as a weak cold front sage through the region. Weak to moderate east to northeast flow continues through early Saturday before becoming more southeast through the early part of next week with 2-3 foot seas. By mid-week we'll could see an increase to moderate to strong winds and would expect an associated increase in seas.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 71 95 69 94 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 73 92 73 92 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 / 0 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.