textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms today, and south Wednesday to Thursday.

- Hot temperatures continue daily.

- Less humid after midweek following a backdoor frontal boundary.

- Rain chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

In the near term, we'll keep low end rain chances with a combination of daytime heating, sea breeze, and a front stalled just to our north. Mainly 20-30 Pops expected this afternoon into the early evening. PWAT values near 2" would allow for some heavy downpours within these showers/storms. The shallow front looks to drift south into the area tomorrow and keep rain chances more to the southern half of the forecast area - mainly south of I-10. A few showers/storms will remain possible early Thursday along the front that should be mainly south toward Matagorda Bay.

A mid-level ridge will hold strong over East Texas through Friday before beginning to break down/drift south over the weekend and into next week. As this shift occurs, a more progressive and active pattern could develop into next week with an increased coverage of showers/storms. While it's too early to have much clarity in the rain chances for next week, there is plenty of support (ensembles and clusters) in the expected change in the overall pattern with the weakening ridge and flow likely becoming quasi-zonal by late in the period.

While drier air is briefly expected late this week with the passing of the weak front, high temperatures are not expected to see much of a change. Expect afternoon high temps persisting in the 90s each day with heat index values above 100 area wide through Wednesday, then dropping back into the 90s later in the week thanks to the drier air. Another thing we can thank the drier air for will be some (slightly) lower overnight low temperatures late this week for inland areas outside of the city. A few spots could fall into the upper 60s.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 605 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Isolated showers and thunderstorms will taper off over the next few hours. Some patchy MVFR CIGs may occur near KCXO around sunrise. Isolated thunderstorms will return to generally the same areas Wednesday afternoon/evening, however chances should remain below 30%. VFR and light winds will continue, with lower CIGs and gusty/erratic winds possible within any storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2026

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through mid-week as a weak front drifts into the area. The best chance of a thunderstorm over the Gulf will be during the overnight and morning hours. In the bays, the highest risk will be late morning and early afternoon. Winds should average 10-15 knots from the east to northeast through Friday, then becoming more southeast by Saturday. Gulf seas are expected to average generally 2-3 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 98 76 97 / 20 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 97 78 96 / 30 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 91 / 20 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.