textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Keeping an eye on NE Tx later this afternoon for storm development. Remnants of some of these storms could sink into parts of the area later this evening.

- Good chances of showers/storms across the northern half of SE Tx during the midweek period.

- Late April cold front, and associated storms, will push through the area Friday and Friday night followed by cooler and breezy conditions in its wake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

For the rest of the afternoon and tonight: We'll be watching severe storm development along the Red River/ArkLaTex region ahead of a frontal boundary. The tail end of some of these storms are forecast to push into the the Piney Woods 7pm-midnight. Some localized strong-severe cells will be possible with damaging winds & hail the primary threat. With the loss of heating, most guidance weakens/dissipates this activity as remnants sag south...though it should be noted that a subset of some of the 12z HREF members indicate the potential for some healthy cells to make it as far south as the metro area and parts of the Galveston Bay...so let's monitor trends as the evening/night progresses.

Wed-Thurs: Aforementioned front and/or outflow boundary should pull up nearly stationary and meander across northern parts of the CWA. Daytime heating, the weak stalled boundary, and some mid/upper level Pacific disturbances riding up and over the ridge situated Mexico and south Tx, will generate additional rounds of showers and tstms during this time period. Higher coverage and rain chances will generally be north of I-10 into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Most activity should occur in the daytime, but it's difficult to pin down timing on these weaker springtime disturbances.

Fri-Fri night: A deeper mid level trof will approach from the west and am anticipating a low level wave to initiate along the stalled frontal boundary. As this wave & front pushes east-southeast, shower and thunderstorms can be expected areawide. Some might be locally heavy considering low level focusing/focus, some upper diffluence, and resident PW's ~2". Training cells can't be ruled out.

Total forecast rains between now and Sat morning: Accumulations in the 2-4" range expected north of I-10, tapering down to closer to 0.75-1.0" along the immediate coast. There will of course be localized possibilities to see those amounts occur in an hour or two where any of the strongest cells emerge/train.

Weekend and early next week: Precip will taper off areawide Sat morning along with much cooler and breezy conditions in the wake of the front. Lows will be in the 50s and highs in the 70s Sat-Sun...followed by a slow modifying trend early in the week as onshore flow resumes. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 AM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings early this morning will continue into at least the mid-morning hours before lifting back to VFR. Expecting gusty southerly winds throughout the day with sustained winds around 15-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt through the afternoon. Hazy conditions possible along the coast throughout the day due to smoke from agricultural burns in Mexico. Winds trend towards becoming light and variable this evening with another round of MVFR/IFR ceilings filtering in from south to north through Wednesday morning. Monitoring the potential for isolated showers and thunderstorms around CLL/UTS late tonight/early Wednesday morning. Not enough confidence at the moment on timing or placement of convection to mention it any of those TAFs at this time. Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected beginning Wednesday afternoon.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

SE winds generally in the 13g20kt and seas in the 4-5ft range will continue for the next several days. Let's keep an eye on storm development in north Texas later this afternoon as it sags into parts of SE TX this evening. Though the vast majority of guidance suggests this activity will die off well north of the coast, a subset of models indicate the potential for some isolated remnant storms to make it as far south as Galveston Bay in the 1-4am timeframe.

A cold front, and associated storms, is forecast to move into the region Friday and off the coast Friday evening. Combination of much cooler temperatures moving in over the warm water, NNE should significantly ramp up into the 25-35kt range...potentially requiring Gale Warnings into early Saturday afternoon. Seas will build to 6-12ft. 47

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1218 PM CDT Tue Apr 28 2026

Rivers are currently in good shape. We'll keep an eye out for potential rises to around action stage as some ensemble data suggests...mainly for some of the smaller watersheds across northern SE TX heading into the late week time period. (Depending on rain accumulations/runoff which is a bit to early to pinpoint the specifics). 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 83 67 81 / 30 70 50 40 Houston (IAH) 75 91 72 86 / 20 40 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 77 83 74 81 / 10 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.