textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday.

- Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible which could lead to instances of flooding of urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

The southwesterly flow pattern aloft will continue across Southeast Texas through the remainder of the week while a steady southeasterly to southerly surface flow persists between ridging over the Gulf and a trough over the Plains. A weak shortwave impulse embedded within the southwesterly flow aloft will aid in the development of isolated to scattered rain showers and thunderstorms to our west and northwest this afternoon. A few of these showers/storms could clip our far northwestern/northern zones (including portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods) late this afternoon into this evening, where we will maintain low POPs between 10-30%. The rest of the forecast area should remain rain-free for the most part, though a few sprinkles or a very isolated shower cannot be entirely ruled out through this evening. Very little in the way of lift is indicated for Thursday and Friday, so rain chances remain below mentionable levels (<=10 percent) in our forecast products for the latter part of the week. Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week with overnight lows continuing to range in the upper 60s to lower 70s over most of the region and daytime highs reaching into the mid to upper 80s over interior areas and mostly around 80 degrees along coastal locations Thursday and Friday.

An upper level trough is forecast to move across the Plains on Saturday, and an associated cold front still looks on track to push across our forecast area Saturday afternoon and evening. Abundant moisture will be in place along the approaching cold front, with precipitable water values increasing to 1.75 to 2 inches over southeast Texas per some of the latest forecast model guidance. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop and spread over our area along the advancing front Saturday afternoon and evening. The deep moisture will bring favorable conditions for locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates potentially peaking in the 2-3+" per hour range, which could lead to flooding of urban, low-lying, and poor drainage areas. A marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall continues on Saturday for much of the forecast area generally along and north of Interstate 10. A slight chance of showers will linger into Sunday, especially over coastal areas. Temperatures will trend cooler behind the front, with lows falling back into the 50s over our central/northern counties and in the lower to mid 60s along the coast on Sunday and Monday morning. Highs generally range in the lower to mid 70s on Sunday and in the mid 60s to lower 70s by Monday. Another series of shortwave impulses embedded within westerly flow aloft may bring a continued low chance of showers and thunderstorms into early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 632 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

Another persistence forecast with VFR conditions and breezy southeasterly winds prevailing though sunset. Winds begin to decrease after sunset (down to around 5-8kt inland, near 10-15kt at the coast) with MVFR CIGs (1500-2500ft) returning around 5-6z that will prevail through the mid to late morning hours on Thursday. There may be a brief period around 11-13z where CIGs will lower to IFR levels (down to around 700ft) near CXO and UTS, but will return to MVFR-levels through the remainder of the morning. CIGs will scatter out to VFR across the region between 16-18z. Southerly winds 10-15kt (and some higher gusts) return across the region by the late morning and will continue through the remainder of the day. Isolated light streamer showers will be possible during the morning and early afternoon hours, but will be too isolated to include in the TAFs.

Winds will again decrease after sunset, and a return to MVFR conditions is expected again Thursday night into Friday morning.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

A moderate onshore flow pattern will persist through the latter part of the week. Small craft should exercise caution through this afternoon, especially over bays and near shore waters where winds remain elevated between 15-20 knots. The elevated onshore flow will keep water levels elevated, with values up to 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW around times of high tide cycles over the next few days. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with a continued increased risk of rip currents. A cold front will bring an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms Saturday evening into Saturday night. Strong offshore wind flow will develop behind the passing cold front late Saturday night into Sunday along with building seas. Small Craft Advisories will likely become necessary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 87 67 88 / 10 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 87 69 86 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 73 80 73 79 / 10 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.