textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased shower & thunderstorm chances Saturday and Saturday night...gradually tapering down on Sunday. - Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of storms possible Tuesday night and Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Continued warm and muggy conditions overnight with lows struggling to fall below 70F. Shower/thunderstorm chances increase as we progress thru the day Saturday and Saturday night as a front and associated precip sag into the region. Guidance is generally pointing toward a linear line of storms moving into northern parts of the region during the afternoon and continuing toward the coast in the evening/overnight hours. There is a slight chance (level 2 out of 5) that some of the storm segments could become strong to severe...with winds and hail the primary threats. Overall, most areas should see 0.5-1.5" rainfall totals, though we will need to watch the potential for *localized* higher swaths (of say 2-4") should a favored jet couplet materialize aloft as a few deterministic models suggest. In that instance, we'd look for potential reginerating/training cells in the Saturday evening/night time period.

This front should theretically stall inland as the synoptic pattern loses support for a southward "push" with time. However, run-to-run model trends have generally been southward and currently depicts stalling between I-10 and the coast. Throw in the mesoscale and rain cooled air upstream, I wouldn't be totally surprised if it gets a bit further south.

On Sunday, rain chances and intensity should gradually wane thru the morning. I lowered POPs a bit and actually tinkered with going even lower...esp in the afternoon. But let's take a look at where this boundary ends up first, since there will probably still be some lingering moisture and upper impusles to deal with.

The next mid-upper trof kicks out of Baja Monday and tracks across Texas Tuesday afternoon (west) thru Wed night (east). This system should provide our next shot of tstms late Tues night and Wednesday. Drier, breezier, and more seasonable wx will fill in behind this system. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Ceilings will be a repeat of yesterday with high end IFR to low end MVFR CIGs (between 900-1200ft) will continue through around 14-15z, with improvements to high end MVFR to VFR conditions expected by the late morning to early afternoon. The one exception will be GLS where MVFR CIGs will continue through the day. GLS will also be dealing with patchy sea fog lowering visibility to 1-4mi through the morning as well. A return to MVFR conditions area-wide will occur between 00-03z with CIGs to around 2000ft, and then to IFR by 03-06z with CIGs down to around 700ft that will continue into Saturday morning.

Southeasterly winds around 10-15kt with gusts to 20-25kt are expected this afternoon with the gusts diminishing after sunset, but the southeasterly winds will likely remain near 10kt through the night.

Some isolated light showers will be possible through today with a slight chance of isolated thunderstorms in the Piney Woods region this evening into tonight. Chances and coverage will be too low at terminals south of UTS to include in the TAFs, but do have a PROB30 of -TSRA at UTS and CLL tonight. Chance of widespread showers and thunderstorms will increase after 18z Saturday as a cold front moves into and then stalls across SE Texas.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

General: A long fetch of 10-20kt southeast winds will remain stretched from our coastal waters well out into the Gulf through the weekend along with 3 to 5 foot seas.

Sea fog: fog will remain an intermittent issue at times, primarily in the Gulf waters off of Galveston, and maybe extreme southerly parts of Galveston Bay in the nighttime and early morning hours. Confidence in the specifics is low and visibilites will likely fluctuate with slightly stronger llvl winds tonight, and some rainfall Saturday night. That said, suspect we'll continue with hit/miss fog issues until the next front fully clears things out Wed.

Precip: shower and thunderstorm chances increase Saturday night into Sunday morning along a front that will be approaching the coast. Cannot rule out some localized gusts >30kt in some of the stronger cells (Saturday night). The front is expected to stall just inland, but storm outflows may give it a nudge into the bays and/or nearshore Gulf. Precip coverage/intensity should wane Sunday and the front should lift back northward on Monday. We'll be keeping an eye out for our next weather system Tuesday night- Wednesday.

Spring Break begins for much of the area this weekend. Just a gentle reminder that there are almost always rip currents at the beach. Swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents are typically strongest. Also avoid swimming on the easter/western tips of Galveston Island. 47

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 100 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

Rivers are currently in good shape, and should mostly stay that way. But we'll keep an eye on things with the incoming wx. We could see a few instances of rises to action to minor flood stage near, or upstream, of where any heavier rainfall occurs in a short time period. The latest river ensemble guidance suggests the Trinity River basin might be the place to monitor. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 86 71 84 58 / 20 40 90 80 Houston (IAH) 84 73 85 68 / 20 20 80 90 Galveston (GLS) 75 70 76 67 / 20 10 60 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.