textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin today with the greatest chances late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area. - Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

For the first time in awhile, we are actually seeing some precipitation across the region today. Increasing moisture from the onshore flow and a passing weak shortwave aloft has allowed for widely scattered streamer showers to develop across the region with even a few isolated thunderstorms. CAM guidance shows that we may see an increase in coverage along and south of I-10 this afternoon as daytime heating begins to increase. But, this will largely be dependent on if we end up getting any breaks in the clouds. If cloud cover remains overcast, redevelopment this afternoon will likely remain very isolated.

A lull in the shower activity is expected late this evening through around sunrise Thursday. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is expected to move into the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region during the mid to late morning on Thursday as a slow moving (and eventually stalling) boundary moves into the region from the west. The bulk of the activity tomorrow will likely remain in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, but may see some isolated showers and thunderstorms down to the I-10 corridor as PWATs surge to around 1.7" ahead of the boundary. This high moisture will mean that a localized downpour will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop. Not anticipating any severe thunderstorms, but this is SE Texas in Spring time, so wouldn't totally out-rule an isolated strong thunderstorm in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods. The showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish by the late afternoon/evening hours. While some streamer showers will be possible on Friday, there is a lack of any upper- level support for shower activity, so anticipating only isolated shower activity during the late morning/afternoon.

The best chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms activity remains to be on Saturday into Saturday night as a cold front slowly moves through the region. This front isn't expected to move into SE Texas until Saturday evening/night, but increasing moisture ahead of the front and increasing PVA from the approaching upper-level disturbance will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorm activity as early as late Saturday morning. Then, an increase in shower and thunderstorm activity is expected Saturday evening into Saturday night as the cold front passes through the area. With the high moisture around leading to localized downpours, WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday/Saturday night across SE Texas. With very dry soils around, the most likely impact would be some minor urban and small stream flooding in areas of poor drainage that happen to get a thunderstorm. There remains some uncertainty on how far into the Gulf this front goes Sunday morning, which will be largely dependent on the strength of the high pressure that develops behind the front. A strong high pressure (as depicted in the deterministic EC) kicks the front off the coast by Sunday morning, but a weaker high pressure (as depicted in the deterministic GFS) keeps the front stalled along the coast through Sunday night/Monday morning. This stalled solution would keep rain chances along the coast through the day on Sunday. The majority of the ensemble data supports ending by Noon Sunday along the coast, but about 30% of the ensembles keep rain chances into Sunday night.

After the cold front this weekend, rain chances look to remain low through at least mid-week next week.

High temperatures will largely be in the low 80s today with some lower temperatures expected along the coast and higher temperatures in the portions of the Brazos Valley. The increased cloud cover and scattered shower activity on Thursday, high temperatures will likely remain in the upper 70s to low 80s across the region. The return of southerly winds and less rain coverage will lead to a return of mid to upper 80s on Friday. Temperatures on Saturday will largely be dependent on the timing of the cold front. Increasing WAA ahead of the front will bring temperatures back into the low to mid-80s along and south of I-10, with highs only in the mid to upper 70s further north. A faster cold front will lead to cooler temperatures across the region, but then a slower cold front will allow for those 80 degree readings to spread further north. Sunday will be the coolest day of the period following the passage of the cold front with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Cooler seasonal temperatures will persist through midweek with highs in the low to mid 70s and lows in the 50s.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 633 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Shower activity continues to decrease going into this evening, but gusty southeasterly to southerly winds will persist through the overnight hours for most terminals. As a result, fog is not anticipated to be an issue. MVFR ceilings will spread from south to north just after sunset and will encompass all of Southeast TX by 06Z/Thursday. MVFR ceilings will linger into at least the early afternoon hours. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin to move in from the northwest around 12Z and gradually moves southeastward into the region. The highest confidence for convective activity is north of I-10, but the potential does extend down to HOU/SGR just south of I-10 as well (these terminals have a PROB30 to show this potential). Showers/storms begin to taper off in the mid to late afternoon hours alongside ceilings lifting back to VFR. Expect another round of gusty southerly/southeasterly winds through the afternoon along with a return of MVFR ceilings going into Thursday evening/night.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1230 PM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Small craft will need to exercise caution this evening through Thursday morning as the onshore flow increases to around 15-20kt with gusts to 25kt with seas increasing to 3-6ft. If the gusts to 25kt are expected to be frequent, a Small Craft Advisory may be issued in future updates. The greatest chance for this is looking to be in our southern waters off of Matagorda Bay. The pressure gradient relaxes Thursday afternoon into Friday resulting in a lowering of the wind speeds back down to around 10-15kt (and occasional higher gusts), but seas will remain around 4-5ft.

Widely scattered showers (and even an isolated thunderstorm) will be possible during the late night to morning hours through the remainder of the week. Activity is expected to move inland during the late morning and afternoon hours, but then redevelop during the overnight periods. A slow-moving cold front will move into the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday that will increase coverage of showers and thunderstorms. This front will also usher in a period of northeasterly winds Sunday into the start of next week. A period of elevated winds around 20-25kt will be possible Sunday following the FROPA.

The persistent onshore flow may lead to an increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches by Thursday that continues into the weekend.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 70 82 70 87 / 10 50 0 10 Houston (IAH) 71 83 72 85 / 0 30 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 72 78 72 78 / 0 20 0 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 PM CDT this evening through Thursday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.