textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, drier conditions persist over the next couple of days with tonight into Friday morning being our coolest night in over two weeks.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend, with highs reaching the 80s by Sunday.

- Another cooldown is expected after the next cold frontal passage, which will be accompanied by showers/storms late Sunday. Strong storms are possible ahead and along the cold front.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (8-13 ft), and potential for negative tides.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Cool and dry conditions will prevail tonight with clear skies and light variable winds. The lows overnight will range in the lower to mid 40s over the inland portions and the mid 40s to lower 50s over the Houston Metro and areas near the coasts. Fair weather conditions will persist on Friday, but southerly flow is to return and will begin a warming trend through the weekend. The high temperatures will be in the 70s on Friday and the upper to lower 80s on Saturday. As moisture increases over the region, we will see a higher chance for patchy to locally dense fog mainly for Saturday night into Sunday morning.

Our next chance for showers and thunderstorms will be sometime late Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as a mid-upper level trough deepens over the Plains early Sunday and a cold front moves across Southeast Texas. Moisture convergence along with south to southwesterly winds at around 15 to 20 mph is expected ahead of the cold front on Sunday. This will lead to very warm conditions that day, with highs peaking in the mid to upper 80s. Thus, be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors on Sunday. For beachgoers, make sure to verify the beach flags given that there may be strong rip currents developing.

Seeing how much the NBM has changed tonight compared to yesterday with our PoPs for Sunday, my confidence is still low with respect to the exact timing and coverage of showers and thunderstorms. But to give you a general idea, models have the front moving through Southeast TX very quickly on Sunday evening (from College Station to the coastal waters in about 5-6 hours). At this time the heaviest shower and thunderstorm activity should be ahead and along the front during the evening to early night hours and some storms may have the potential for strong winds. Instability does increase by early afternoon and we will be heating up into the upper 80s...depending on how much moisture it will have to work with, I wouldn't rule out isolated showers and thunderstorms starting to develop during the afternoon hours as well. We will have to keep an eye on how the environment sets up as these storms develop, including wind shear speeds. There's the potential for a southwesterly llvl jet of 35-50 knots overhead on Sunday ahead of the front. SPC has placed a 15% probability of Severe Weather for the Piney Woods region for Sunday, but may be expanded in the next day or so. Stay tuned for more details.

Rain chances end in the wake of the front as dry cool air moves in. Strong gusty winds are expected to develop as a northerly 40-60 knot llvl jet pushes through right behind the cold front. We could see northerly winds of 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph (highest speeds will likely be over the coastal locations). Wind Advisories may be needed. Winds relax Monday afternoon with cooler conditions and highs in the 50s for most of the region. Fair weather prevails through mid week with another warming trend as southerly winds quickly return Tuesday.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 551 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

VFR throughout the period. N-NE winds this evening at 5-10 KTS, becoming light and VRB overnight through Fri morning. For the rest of Friday, winds will be S at 5-10 KTS.

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MARINE

Issued at 1227 AM CDT Fri Mar 13 2026

Winds will veer from east to the southeast overnight. Light to moderate onshore flow will continue into the weekend. Seas will be 2-3 feet through Saturday night, building on Sunday as winds increase before a strong cold front pushes offshore Sunday night. There's the potential for strong rip currents to develop on Sunday.

Expect showers and thunderstorms to develop ahead and along the cold front, followed by strong north winds of 30-35 knots with gusts of 40-45 knots along with seas of 8-13 feet in the wake of the front Sunday night through Monday. Gale force winds are expected in the wake of this front. Small Craft Advisories and/or Gale Warnings will be likely. Low water levels along the bays is also possible. Winds and seas gradually decrease Monday night into Tuesday. Expect light onshore winds Tuesday into the end of the work week.

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FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Friday will be fairly dry again with afternoon RH values in the 35 to 45 percent range inland and the 45 to 55 percent range along the coasts. Expect south to southeasterly winds at around 10 mph. Expect rising RH values through the weekend. Another surge of dry air can be expected early in the new week after another frontal passage on Sunday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 51 80 61 87 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 55 80 65 86 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 64 74 68 77 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.