textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected through early Saturday, with elevated risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding.

- Lower humidity through Saturday, resulting in seasonable overnight lows but above normal daytime highs.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday. Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Isaias has reached major hurricane strength, and continues to track north through the north-central Gulf this afternoon. Low level/sfc flow remains firmly northeasterly across the region, thus keeping drier wx in place through the weekend. Satellite TPW shows values of ~1.0 inch at the coast to as low as ~0.5 inches inland. Some weak capping at 850-800mb, though model guidance shows this eroding late in the afternoon. Cannot completely rule out a sparse shower/storm or two, though by in large rain chances should remain slim to none. Will once again see some breezy winds/gusts during the afternoon with the tightened pressure gradient. Hazardous marine conditions continue with elevated winds over the Gulf waters (especially offshore closer to the lightering area), building seas and swells. These swells will also bring a higher risk of rip current and possibly some minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches, mainly around high tide this afternoon/evening.

On Saturday, winds will back to the north as Isaias makes landfall, later decreasing and veering southeasterly as Isaias moves further inland, allowing marine conditions to improve. Onshore winds increase slightly into Sunday, improving WAA & moisture return into next week as ridging builds overtop SE Texas. Most of next week should see highs in the mid 80s/mid 90s, lows in the upper 60s/lower 80s with isolated rain chances daily.

Long range guidance showers greater confidence in a cold front occuring beyond the current 7 day forecast, as a result of a longwave trough passing trough the central/eastern CONUS. Current timing for the front looks to be around Friday or Saturday (16th or 17th). LREF wind direction sees a spike in members depicting a northerly sfc flow Friday morning at KIAH (Mostly from ENS/GEPS members). By Saturday morning, the majority of members show northerly flow at KIAH (00z run shows ~80% of members). LREF and GFS Ensemble suggest the coolest temperatures are most favored to occur on Sunday. This FROPA will be the region's next best chance of meaningful rainfall and fall weather.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 521 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

VFR conditions will remain for the entire TAF cycle. Inland NE winds continue between 5-10kts and relax to LGT and VRB overnight. Along the coast, winds remain slightly elevated. Winds on Saturday pick back up throughout our area in the afternoon between 5-10kts out of the E then shift out of the SSE by evening.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 137 PM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Winds have generally been lower than anticipated, mostly around 10- 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots. Galveston buoy has measured wave heights around 5-6 ft, though increasing. With swells from Isaias, those wave heights could still reach 6-8 ft at times through tonight, pushing 9 ft in the lightering area. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 1 AM Saturday. Elevated water levels and minor coastal flooding will be possible at high tides today, along with an increased risk of rip currents. Conditions improve into Saturday with winds veering southeasterly in the afternoon, then increasing slightly into Sunday. Showers and storms will be possible almost daily with higher rain chances expected next week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 61 93 66 94 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 66 93 70 93 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 87 78 86 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ438- 439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.