textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hard Freeze likely tonight away from the coast and outside Houston's urban heat island.

- A gradual warm up early next week along with rain chances returning to the forecast Tuesday and Tuesday night ahead of the next cold front.

- Colder conditions behind the front Wednesday-Thursday. But no hard freeze expected.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Who else loves a sunny cold day? If you're like me, then you are enjoying the temperatures in the 40s with bright sunshine. The cold weather is to be expected with a 1043 mb high centered over Oklahoma. The high will push southeast tonight, with winds at the surface becoming lighter. These conditions coupled with the clear skies ahead will set us up for a cold night. However, I did notice that model guidance is generally coming in somewhat less cold. This may have to do with the mid/upper clouds that are evident over the central and northern plains. This cloud deck is likely to push southward, and we could have some clouds try to make it into the CWA late tonight, which would make overnight cooling less efficient. I gave some weight to this scenario by mixing some of the new model data into the forecast we already had. But even with that upward nudge in forecast temps, most areas outside of Houston's urban heat island and away from the coast are expected to have a hard freeze tonight. So protect those sensitive plants and bring the pets inside!

The future is bright for those who dislike the cold. The polar jet will push to the north and east while modest ridging takes hold on Sunday into Monday. Sunday will still be colder than normal, but milder, with highs generally in the 50s. I think we'll manage one more cold morning on Monday, with many areas down in the 30s. But by Monday afternoon, most locations are expected to be well into the 60s, possibly around 70. We'll also see the return of onshore flow, pushing dew points upwards. Perhaps less dress skin woes for southeast Texans as moisture levels increase. Onshore flow will set us up for much warmer overnight lows, with Tuesday morning temps only falling into the 50s.

Mid/upper troughing in the east is expected to back westward on Tuesday, with a lobe in the trough sinking southward over the central and southern plains. This pattern will manifest a surface low and an associated cold front, the latter of which pushes through our region late Tuesday into very early Wednesday morning. Rain shower activity is expected along and ahead of the front. Couldn't rule out an isolated thunderstorm. Warm conditions (70s temps) are expected ahead of the front, with colder air filtering southward in its wake. But this air mass is not looking nearly as cold as recent air masses. For starters, the jet breaks into a more split flow regime, limiting the arctic connection in the upper levels. In addition, the trajectory of the coldest air will be pointed more towards E CONUS. So no hard freezes behind this front. But northern areas could have a light freeze Wednesday and Thursday night. Wednesday-Thursday afternoon temps are expected to be in the 50s to low 60s.

By week's end, we could find ourselves in a warmer pattern. Perhaps widespread highs back in the 70s. In SE Texas, the cold never lasts forever. So for those of us who like the cold, enjoy it while it lasts!

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 420 AM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Breezy northerly winds should start to fill in from north to south this morning. Winds of around 10-15 knots with gusts of 20-25 knots can be anticipated inland, reaching around 20 knots with gusts of 30 near the coast at KGLS. Winds should ease down as the day progresses, becoming light and variable tonight. Mostly clear skies and VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Sat Jan 31 2026

Recent hazardous winds and seas should improve this evening into tonight. Winds will veer and become much lighter on Sunday and Monday. Despite improving winds/seas, we expect water levels to remain low on Sunday and Monday. The current Low Water Advisory is likely to be extended through Monday, with a non-zero chance of being extended into Tuesday. Onshore flow increases on Tuesday. With higher dew points pushing northward over cold waters, we cannot rule out patchy marine fog Monday night through Tuesday night. But conditions overall are just marinally favorable, and fog has not been included in the marine forecast at this time. A front pushes offshore Tuesday night into early Wednesday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected along and ahead of the front. Gusty north winds are expected in the front's wake.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 24 54 35 68 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 24 53 37 68 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 34 51 46 63 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM CST Sunday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>237-300.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375.