textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one on Wednesday and another Friday. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third cold front early next week brings potential for rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

The progressive nature of the weather pattern is the main thing that stands out for the next week or so - with not just one, or even two, but three cold fronts on tap for our area. This quick succession of frontal passages (and corresponding return of onshore flow) should keep us in generally seasonable conditions - though we'll probably not get too many days right at average. Instead, we'll yo-yo between a little bit cooler than the average and a little bit warmer than the average, depending on what side of a front we find ourselves on.

Front number one arrives Wednesday morning, looking to push through our northernmost locations in the area a couple hours or so after dawn, reaching the Houston metro in the 10-11 am range, and pushing offshore over the Gulf early this afternoon. This will be a dry frontal passage, marked most significantly by the shift to stronger northwesterly winds and a cooler, drier airmass surging into the area. While fuels conditions around and above normal moisture for the time of year mitigates concern for explosive fire weather conditions, it still looks like Wednesday will be a dry, breezy afternoon. For all but very unique, specific circumstances, it's probably just best to put off outdoor work involving sparks or flames for another day.

Thursday should provide us another dry day as winds remain offshore, but should weaken significantly, before turning back onshore by Thursday evening. This should ensure that Wednesday night is our chilliest, and only night in this segment with a light freeze only up around Houston County. This also means we'll enter a short warming period, and Friday should be near, but above average.

And by short, I do mean short. Cold front number two looks to shove through the area Friday night, knocking us back to the cool side of average Saturday, and a return of a brief, light freeze to the northernmost portions of the area (Hellloooooo, Houston County!) With some more sun, we'll see things mark their way back on the upward trend Sunday, with onshore flow back in place by Sunday evening.

Though onshore flow does not look exceedingly strong, there is pretty strong consensus in the model envelope that our third front early next week will see enough moisture return to actually generate some showers when it makes its way through, unlike the first two dry fronts. What's not as high confidence? Well, pretty close to everything else. The current forecast splatters PoPs of 20-40 percent over a long stretch of early next week. This will likely have to shift over time, as I don't really expect we'll see rain chances drawn out so long. Rather, this is more of an indication that uncertainty in the long range forecast is having a hard time landing on a specific time range for the best rain chances at this time. For now, we'll want to keep an eye on early next week and see how expectations evolve.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 515 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Widely scattered light shra will end this evening, yielding to a mostly cloudy VFR deck through the night. Couldn't rule out localized MVFR cigs by morning. Skies are expected to clear tomorrow while winds increase from the north the wake of a cold front. North winds sustained to around 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots are expected by late morning and early afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1135 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Light winds and low seas will persist through the night. A cold front is expected to push into the waters Wednesday afternoon, which will turn winds northwesterly to northerly, strengthening into the afternoon.

Seas will build along with the winds, prompting a Small Craft Advisory On the coastal Gulf waters, occasional gusts to around gale may be seen, though most winds will be closer to 25 knots. On the bays, mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the upper portions of the bays. Negative tides look likely to prompt a need for a low water advisory Thursday morning, but confidence is not quite high enough to issue such an advisory yet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 67 35 58 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 47 68 40 58 / 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 53 68 45 57 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375.