textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Look for scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms this weekend (30-70% chance).

- Better chances of widespread precipitation, some possibly heavy at times, is anticipated Monday-Tuesday.

- A gradual drying/warming trend should take shape heading into the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Showers, some locally moderate to heavy, and thunderstorms continue to move northward, pushing further inland early this afternoon. With PWs in the 2.0 - 2.4 inch range, a deep 700:500 mb RH layer, and strong surface moisture convergence, there is more than enough atmospheric support to sustain this activity. The bulk of the precipitation is expected north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon before gradually tapering off early this evening. As some breaks in the clouds allow sunshine to creep into the coastal counties, isolated activity cannot be ruled out later this afternoon.

A second round of showers and storms is forecast to return late tonight into Sunday. Expect isolated to scattered showers and storms to develop over the coastal waters and along the immediate coast overnight into the morning hours. This activity will then spread inland by late morning to early afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds of 25 to 40 mph will be possible with any of the stronger storms.

As highlighted in previous discussions, a wetter pattern is expected to start the workweek. Southeast TX will sit on the southern periphery of an expansive ridge moving into the north- central CONUS. This setup will lead to a parade of vorticity maxima embedded in the flow aloft, riding east to west into our area. The combination of upper-level forcing, deep moisture, and a low-shear environment will result in favorable conditions for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. The best convective focus will occur during the day, and along a quasi- stationary frontal boundary. This setup will favor periods of heavy rainfall. WPC highlights this threat in their Day 3, 4 and 5 (Monday - Wednesday) excessive rainfall outlooks, placing the region under both Slight and Marginal risks.

By Thursday, and into early next weekend, drier air and hotter conditions will return to the region as high pressure builds back in. However, with persistent southerly surface flow, an isolated, diurnally driven shower/storm along the afternoon seabreeze cannot be ruled out each day.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 AM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Early morning streamer showers and storms are seen along the coast. These storms are mainly impacting site KGLS, but could impact sites KLBX and KSGR over the next couple of hours. Some uncertainty remains in how far north showers and storms will get in the early morning, so went with VCSH for sites KIAH and KHOU. Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected this afternoon, especially for sites KIAH and KDWH and points southward. Shower and storm coverage is expected to dissipate this evening. Tonight we should see quiet conditions with light southerly winds.

MARINE

Issued at 218 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas around 2 to 4 ft will persist tonight and into the upcoming week. The main concern will be showers and storms developing late night and into the morning hours, before moving inland during the day. Highest chances are expected Monday into Tuesday with scattered to numerous showers and storms. Elevated winds and seas can be expected near/around any stronger storms. Drier conditions along with light onshore winds resume after midweek.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 92 76 90 / 20 30 30 70 Houston (IAH) 78 91 78 89 / 30 60 40 80 Galveston (GLS) 83 89 82 88 / 30 60 50 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.