textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy to areas of fog are possible overnight through early morning, mainly south of I-10.

- Hot and relatively dry weather continues this week. Humidity and hence, heat indices will gradually increase toward the end of the week.

- A daily risk of afternoon isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected mainly after midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

We still have a cold front meandering over the region this afternoon. Latest obs suggest the boundary is extending along the coast. The influence of the boundary along with the passage of a weak surface trough over the Coastal Bend resulted in scattered showers and storms, mainly over the coastal waters this morning. Most of this activity has weakened pr dissipated with only lingering showers offshore. The good news about this FROPA is that drier air continues to filter in behind it. Locations west of the boundary are experiencing low humidity this afternoon with sfc dewpoints in the 60s (inland) to low 70s (coastal counties). With afternoon temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, reaching near 100s at a few locations, heat indices between 100 - 105F can be expected through early evening with the highest values over the coastal counties. This boundary will serve as a focus for patchy-to-areas of fog overnight as it becomes quasi-stationary over the region. Latest HREF and REFS guidance suggest a 30 to 60 % of probability of fog by early Monday, with the highest probabilities south of I-10/southwest counties.

The main mid to upper-trough centered over the the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley will continue to progress east-northeast, lifting the frontal boundary further north of the area on Monday. As the frontal boundary slowly lifts north and brings warmer southerly flow and upper ridging builds back into the region, expect a hot and slightly humid day. Guidance shows 850mb temperatures in the 20 to 24 degC range, suggesting sfc temperatures in the upper 90s to low 100s. With dewpoint mixing in the afternoon, peak heat indices will generally remain in the 100 to 106F range. Little to no rain is expected; however, with the proximity of the boundary during the day, an isolated rain/storm or two cannot be ruled out in the afternoon.

A relatively dry and hot week is expected with near seasonal temperatures as the ridge remains anchored to our west. Highs generally be in the mid to upper 90s. Low-level humidity will gradually increase towards the end of the week, likely pushing heat indices into the 105 to 109F range. In addition to the continued heat, a daily risk of isolated to scattered diurnally driven showers and storms can be expected, manly in the afternoon via seabreeze interaction.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Mainly a wind forecast, but the forecast gets a bit more complex closer to the coast where interactions with a frontal boundary looks to bring multiple wind shifts. For the northern terminals (IAH and northward), anticipating just light northerly winds and VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. Further south, winds start out light and westerly this morning then becoming northwesterly in the late morning. This will then be followed by a shift to southerly winds as the front retreats northward. There is ongoing scattered showers/storms near Matagorda Bay and offshore early this morning. While we can't entirely rule out a rogue shower along the coast throughout the day, the potential is too low to include any SH/TS mentions in this TAF package.

Winds become light and variable overnight into Monday morning. It's worth noting that with low-level moisture increasing overnight, there is at least some potential for reduced visibilities due to patchy fog for western areas early Monday morning. Uncertainty is a bit too high at the moment though to include any mentions of this in this TAF package.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

A weak frontal boundary will meander over the Upper TX coast this evening/overnight, before lifting further inland on Monday. Therefore, expect light to moderate west to northwest winds to gradually shift to the south to southwest by Monday. Seas will generally remain into the 2 to 4 ft range through early Monday and up to 3 ft through the rest of the week. A typical summertime pattern is anticipated through the week, characterized by landbreeze (night) and seabreeze (afternoon) interactions...bringing isolated morning showers that gradually shift inland during the day.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 72 99 74 98 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 77 99 78 98 / 0 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 81 91 82 91 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.