textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daily widespread heat indices of 105-107F with locally higher values over 108F are likely.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- High pressure and drier air building in the area by midweek, reducing precipitation chances. Rain/storm chances return late in the week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

A mid-level low pressure system over the southern plains is influencing our region, supporting another round of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms today.

Conditions are conducive for convection, with PWAT values near 1.8- 2.1 inches, ample instability, and little to no capping. However, some mid level dry air may be an inhibiting factor, similar to what occurred over the weekend. While there is a low probability of MCS development overnight in our northern areas, small scattered storms during the late afternoon are the more likely scenario. In the early morning from 6am-8am patchy fog along the west side of I-45 can be expected.

Slightly drier air will move into the area Tuesday into Wednesday gradually decreasing precipitation chances. Some scattered showers are still expected Tuesday, with highest chances centered around the Piney Woods region. Precipitation chances will continue to decrease into late Wednesday and Thursday as a plume of Saharan dust will be arriving, bringing even drier air, possible haze, and reduced air quality.

Temperatures throughout the week will remain in the mid to high 90s with heat indices approaching advisory level by the end of the week. However, friday into the weekend will also see more widespread showers/storms than what have been seen over the last week. Whether or not heat advisory criteria will be met will depend on the timing and location of these showers and thunderstorms.

Wingo

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Seabreeze showers and thunderstorm are beginning to wind down across the region early this evening. Anticipate widespread VFR by sunset and persisting through much of the evening and overnight period. Patchy fog may develop after midnight tonight, mainly west of I-45. Both SREF and HREF show medium probabilities (30-50% chance) of MVFR/IFR visibilities for a couple of hours around sunrise Tuesday. Maintained TEMPO groups at KCLL, KUTS, KCXO, KDWH, KSGR, and KLBX for brief reduced visibilities to 6SM. Otherwise, VFR prevails through the morning and into Tuesday afternoon. Seabreeze showers and thunderstorms will once again develop by or just after midday. Confidence and probabilities are are too low to mention any TS in the TAFs at this time, but may need to be added or amended at a later time.

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light onshore winds (around 10 kt) and low seas (1-3 ft) will prevail through at least midweek. Towards the end of the work week, winds slightly increase and come close to the caution flag threshold at times during the nighttime hours. These increased winds will also increase offshore seas to around 3-4 ft and could lead to an increasing risk of rip currents going into the weekend. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible over the waters during the morning to early afternoon hours before rain activity shifts inland along the sea breeze.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 78 95 78 96 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 80 96 80 97 / 20 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 20 30 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.