textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to major heat risk today, with generally moderate heat risk each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 103-108F (39-42C). - High rip current risk along area beaches through this evening

- Low to moderate rain chances Tuesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Mid-lvl ridging over the Mississippi Valley will continue to shift northeastward into the Ohio Valley/Mid-Atlantic by mid-week before the Western US trough/eastern US ridge configuration begins to break down Friday into the weekend. The subsequent CONUS synoptic pattern will be characterized by dual ridges over the SE CONUS and Southwest with a low amplitude inverted trough (weakness) positioned in the vicinity of the western Gulf and SE TX. At the surface, high pressure over the eastern Gulf will shift westward towards the mid-week period somewhat relaxing the pressure gradient over our area before shifting back east in the late week period.

Rain chances today will continue to be limited by dry air aloft, reinforced by the ongoing Saharan Dust intrusion. There remains just enough low-lvl moisture and near-coastal convergence in breezy southerly flow to support low-end rain chances around 10% but coverage and intensity appears quite spotty. As the SAL plume exits to the north on Tuesday, sea-breeze induced convective coverage will increase as PWATs increase into the 1.7 to 1.8 inch range, so bumped up PoPs into the 20-35% range focused just inland of the coast. Storm coverage in the mid to late week period will generally be isolated-scattered and largely sea-breeze induced as the weak disturbances progressing along the southern flank of the ridge will focus higher rain chances over Louisiana and far east Texas. Rain chances for the July 4th weekend look to be about 15-30% but confidence is not high in details at this time horizon.

Did think at least consider a heat advisory for inland locations today as some warmer spots may briefly hit ApparentT criteria, but the SAL plume would nudge me against issuance, as we may mix just enough drier air down to keep peak heat indices in the 105 to 108 degree range. Regardless of headlines, heat-related precautions should still definitely be taken with moderate to major heat risk and generally red (high) WBGT risk. Peak heat indices in the 103-107 range will continue to be the norm through most of the upcoming workweek.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Currently, patchy MVFR/low level stratus clouds continue to intermittently impact a handful of terminals this morning. Cloud bases should lift and erode sometime between 14-16Z this morning, resulting in prevailing VFR conditions through much of remainder of the period. Bumped up wind speeds a touch at most TAF sites, with guidance suggesting sustained southerly winds around 10-15 knots, with occasional to frequent gusts up to 25 knots at the typical windier sites. Low level stratus/MVFR ceilings may build back in after sunset and into the overnight hours, but was forecast confidence was too low to mention MVFR in the TAFs at this time. Ceilings may need to be added in later amendments or later routine forecasts.

MARINE

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Mon Jun 29 2026

Fresh southerly winds this morning will decrease into the moderate range this afternoon and then further decrease into the gentle range in the mid-week period as the pressure gradient slackens. 3 to 5 foot seas this morning will decrease to 2 to 3 feet by mid-week. There will be a high risk of rip currents today and this elevated risk may persist into Tuesday. Very low rain chances today will increase into the low and medium range Tuesday through Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 96 75 94 75 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 94 77 93 77 / 10 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 83 / 10 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.