textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, mainly along and south of I-10.

- Additional round of showers and storms is expected this evening through early Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk.

- Cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier cooler weather for the remainder of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Periods of showers and thunderstorms continue to develop and move east-northeastward across portions of SE Texas early this afternoon. Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show the upper lvl trough moving over TX/south Plains, while at the surface, a coastal trough moves northeastward along the Middle TX coast. With increasing WAA, and bulk shear of 40 to 55 knots, isolated hail (up to 1") will be possible with any strong cells through late this afternoon and evening. The best potential for stronger showers and storms will remain roughly along and south of I-10, which is where the best moisture availability persists. Showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity this evening and overnight as the trough lifts northward along the Upper TX coast. Therefore, we will continue to monitor areas from Conroe coastward for additional convection redevelopment this evening and overnight. With decent dynamics aloft, bulk shear and cool mid-level temperatures; a risk of isolated hail will remain possible with the strongest storms. SPC highlights this threat in their Day 1 outlook for severe weather with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5).

Showers and storms should gradually taper off after sunrise Wednesday as the main forcing and sfc convergence move out of the region. Skies will slowly clear out from the northwest, though cloud cover may persist over the coastal zones. Highs will generally be in the 70s with some locations reaching the low 80s across our far northern counties. A low over the northeastern CONUS will drag a cool dry front that will enter the region late Wednesday night into Thursday, bringing drier northerly air. This surge of cooler air will be felt more through the night with overnight lows dropping into the mid 40s to upper 50s by Friday morning and Saturday morning. Ridging aloft breaks down later this weekend as a mid to upper low/trough moves across the Plains. This will result in the return of rain and storm chances Sunday into early next week.

JM

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 500 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Periods of SHRA are likely across much of the region this evening into tonight, w/ isolated to widely scattered TSRA expected south of I-10. We cannot rule out TSRA farther north. But for now, we are limiting the mention of thunderstorms to TAFs south of I-10. Prevailing vis/cigs are expected to be VFR. However, occasional reduced vis/cigs during times of SHRA/TSRA will be possible throughout the night. Wednesday appears to be a quieter weather day, with lingering clouds and VFR cigs/vis.

MARINE

Issued at 125 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Periods of showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop this afternoon, and will persist through the evening and overnight hours. This is in response of an approaching coastal trough that will continue to lift northward along the Middle and Upper TX coast through early Wednesday. The environment will continue to be conducive for strong thunderstorms capable of producing hail, heavy downpours and lightning. The best potential for strong storms will be later this evening through early Wednesday morning. A cool front will move through the bays and coastal waters Wednesday night into Thursday morning, resulting in moderate offshore winds and seas up to 4 ft (well offshore). Light onshore winds resume by early Friday.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 57 79 56 77 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 78 61 79 / 60 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 74 65 76 / 80 50 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.