textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humid conditions expected over the next several days.

- Could not rule out scattered showers Friday into Saturday.

- Cold front pushes through on Saturday, bringing chillier (though near normal) temperatures by Sunday and Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

The next few days will feature continued enhanced onshore flow while the subtropical ridge aloft flattens, yielding to a more zonal-ish pattern in the mid/upper levels. The pattern will deny our area synoptic lift while continuosly pushing warm, humid air northward from the Gulf. Therefore, expect rain chances to remain low and those temperatures to remain high over the next few days. Afternoon highs are expected to average in the low 80s Wednesday, and low/mid 80s on Thursday (cooler at the coast and northern Piney Woods). Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s. Patchy areas of dense fog are possible during the morning hours Wednesday and Thursday.

By Friday, an area of low pressure is expected to deepend over the Midwest and Great Lakes. The system's associated trailing cold front will surge southward towards SE Texas. The LL gradient is expected to ease as the front approaches, resulting in weaker onshore flow. This onshore flow could begin to weaken as early as Thursday, allowing winds to decrease enough to favor sea fog at the coast. So for those with interests near the coast, be advised that the risk of sea fog will increase as we approach week's end. The one thing that could mitigate the sea fog risk somewhat are the SSTs which are chilly but not THAT chilly (~ mid 60s). Global models are picking up on a stream of vorticity that could enhance lift somewhat on Friday into early Saturday. Thus, we do show a modest chance of showers and more cloud cover. However, high temps are still expected to reach 80 in many locations on Friday, and potentially on Saturday (FROPA timing depending).

Speaking of FROPA, we expect the front to push through sometime on Saturday. Guidance is suggesting a rather strong sfc high will build southward over central CONUS on Sunday. But the center of the high is expected to push more southeastward towards E CONUS as opposed to pushing due south in a typical "blue norther" fashion. As long as this trend holds, then the bulk of the cold air spilling into CONUS should remain to our north and east. For now, our forecast features a return to normal southeast Texas winter weather for Sunday into early parts of the work week. This translates to afternoon highs generally in the 60s with lows in the 30s and 40s. Couldn't rule out frosty areas in the morning, particularly in our northern counties. So don't put those sweaters away just yet!

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 521 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Breezy southerly winds with gusts to 20-25kt will continue through sunset, then S-SSW winds of 4-8kt will prevail overnight. VFR conditions will prevail through around midnight, but expect increasing MVFR with CIGs down to around 1500ft and isolated IFR conditions with CIGs down to 500-700ft through the night. Some patchy fog will also be possible. These conditions will continue through the mid-morning hours on Wednesday, then scatter out with VFR conditions prevailing through the day with southerly winds between 8-12kt. MVFR conditions are likely to return late Wednesday evening with returning low clouds.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Enhanced onshore flow will likely bring 3-5 foot swell to our Gulf waters through Thursday. Could not rule out swell closer to 6 feet in our zones farther offshore. Patchy sea fog is possible on Wednesday and Thursday, with a higher risk of sea fog Thursday night through Saturday morning. The one factor that could mitigate the fog risk will be the water temperatures that are only marginally favorable for sea fog. That being said, moisture levels will be high and winds will become increasingly favorable for fog as the week progresses.

A strong cold front is expected to push offshore on Saturday. Strong northerly winds and building seas are likely in its wake by Saturday evening. These winds and enhanced seas are expected to continue through Sunday and into Monday. Winds are likely to veer to the northeast by Monday. Winds are expected to peak in the 20 to 25 knot range with gusts over 30 knots late Saturday night into Sunday morning. Areas farther offshore may experience higher winds. Seas over the open Gulf waters are expected to build to 6-9 feet on Sunday. Winds and seas are likely to improve on Monday into Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 79 63 80 65 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 63 81 67 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 72 62 73 64 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.