textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Another round of freezing temperatures tonight into Thursday morning for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods along with the potential for patchy freezing fog.

- Next cold front pushes through Thursday night, but Arctic air really doesn't filter in until Friday night. - Hard freezes for parts of the area Friday night & Saturday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

With surface high pressure overhead today, sunshine will be in abundance paired with the still below normal temperatures as we top out in the low to upper 50s this afternoon. It's still warmer than it was yesterday though, and that warming trend continues into Thursday as onshore flow returns. Before we get to that though, let's talk about tonight. Temperatures overnight will fall into the mid 20s to low 30s for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods and mid to upper 30s elsewhere. On top of that, model guidance is in fairly good agreement on patchy to areas of fog across most of Southeast Texas overnight into Thursday morning...which overlaps with areas that will see freezing temperatures. As a result, freezing fog is possible tonight especially for areas north of a Brenham-Montgomery-Onalaska line. In freezing fog, the droplets can freeze onto surfaces that are below freezing which can range from tree branches, metal surfaces, vehicles, and even elevated roadways. So, in the areas listed above, be sure to use caution on any elevated roadways tonight into Thursday morning since the formation of black ice is possible. Our office has not issued a Freezing Fog Advisory in over 4,400 days (early December 2013), but that may change tonight.

Surface high pressure kicks out to the east leading to return of onshore flow by Thursday morning. This brings the peak of our warming trend as most locations will top out in the low to upper 60s...and can't entirely rule out a few areas around Matagorda Bay reaching the 70F mark. While this is occuring, an embedded shortwave trough passing through the Four Corners region late Wednesday/early Thursday generates surface low pressure near the TX/OK panhandles. As the trough continues to slide southeastward, it will push a cold front through Southeast TX Thursday night. The front pushes through early enough for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods to see yet another round of freezing temperatures. Elsewhere, expect lows to range from the mid 30s to low 40s. A coastal trough develops out ahead of the front, but the moisture is quickly pushed southward post-FROPA. Our only rain chances are off the coast on Thursday night/early Friday morning as a result.

Another round of freezing temperatures is expected in the wake of this front along with the potential for hard freezes ( 24F) over the weekend. The coldest of the air pushes in late Friday as a 1040+ mb high slides in from the Central Plains. On Friday night, most of the area will see freezing temperatures ranging from the mid 20s to the mid 30s...some portions of the Piney Woods may see a brief hard freeze. Factoring in the northerly breeze though, it may feel as cold as the 10s up north and the 20s elsewhere. A Cold Weather Advisory is certainly in play. High temperatures on Saturday will only top out in 40s, then we're onto our coldest night behind this front. Expecting freezing temperatures across the board with most locations near or below the hard freeze threshold. Areas closer to the coast will be more so in the light freeze range with lows likely in the mid 20s to low 30s. Winds will be lighter, but the air temperatures make another Cold Weather Advisory likely for Saturday night as well. Essentially, don't put away your winter coats or the insulation for your pipes just yet!

The next warming trend picks up on Sunday as ridging aloft nudges in from the west as the upper level trough pushes eastward. High temperatures reach back into the 60s by Monday. Another shortwave trough pushes through on Tuesday and might generate a coastal trough bringing a return of rain chances. GFS says yes and the Euro says no. The next cold front looks to push through around midweek with chances for showers and storms ahead of and along the frontal boundary.

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 629 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

All sites at VFR at this time. Expecting SGR/GLS/LBX to remain VFR through the period. Light patchy fog will be possible at these sites; however, not expecting to drop below VFR levels. For IAH/HOU/CXO, anticipating fog to be a bit more impactful, particularly for IAH/HOU where fog may bring VSBYs down to IFR levels from around 11Z through 14Z. Further north, at CLL/UTS, air temperatures are expected to drop to below freezing. Enhanced radiational cooling with clear skies and light winds will serve as a catalyst for fog development in these areas, and with freezing temperatures, have included in the forecast the potential for freezing fog overnight into Thursday morning. Fog could become dense at times, which could create slick conditions on runways and light icing on exposed surfaces. Expect improvement to VFR by mid to late morning across all sites.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1221 PM CST Wed Jan 28 2026

Light winds and low seas will prevail over the next couple of days with northeasterly winds today becoming southeasterly by Thursday morning. The main marine impact remains abnormally low water levels. During times of low tide, water levels are expected to decrease to around 1 ft below MLLW. Abnormally low water levels are anticipated to stick around through the end of the work week and continue into the weekend behind the next cold front.

Rain chances return late Thursday into early Friday as a strong cold front pushes offshore. Hazardous winds and seas are expected in the wake of this front, so Small Craft Advisories are likely. Couldn't rule out gusts near gale force over the open Gulf Friday into Saturday. Winds and seas subside late Saturday into Sunday.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 30 63 32 50 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 35 66 37 53 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 48 63 42 54 / 0 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.