textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- With more sun, temperatures will run above seasonal averages, though humidity will be somewhat lower.

- Can't completely rule out a brief shower or two over the next couple of days, but the best rain chances remain offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected at times through early Saturday from a nearby tropical system.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Drier weather continues this afternoon with upper level troughing deepening over Texas. At the same time, Hurricane Isaias will continue to strengthen as it tracks northeast through the central Gulf. It's influence of low level/sfc flow is growing, keeping winds at these levels largely northeasterly across the region. Satellite imagery shows TPW values of around 1.4 inches near Matagorda bay, and slightly under 1.0 inch over the Piney Woods. These values should continue to lower as northeasterly flow funnels in drier air from upstream. That, with capping around 800-750mb, should keep rain chances near zero for inland areas this afternoon. Near the coast/over the Gulf waters, a few isolated showers cannot be ruled out at times. The tightening pressure gradient from Isaias should also bring breezy conditions inland during the afternoon hours. Hazardous marine conditions are still expected to develop across the Texas Coastal waters at times, including elevated seas, increased risk of rip currents and potential for minor coastal flooding along Gulf-facing beaches.

On Friday, Isaias should be working its way through the north- central Gulf, continuing north-northeastward throughout the day. Influence from Isaias will rise, backing winds further to the northeast for Friday. Rain chances won't be completely out of the question, as some pockets of moisture/vorticity impulses push in from the east, though by in large most areas are expected to remain dry. On Saturday, winds will back to the north as Isaias makes landfall. Winds across the region should decline as Isaias moves further inland and weakens. Onshore winds are still slated to return by Sunday, ushering in WAA & moisture return into next week as ridging builds overtop SE Texas.

03

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the entire TAF cycle. NE winds continue between 5-10kts inland with slightly more elevated winds along the coast. Overnight winds relax to lgt and VRB. Tomorrow anticipate the similar cycle of today with lgt NE winds, VFR conditions, and any showers confined off the coast.

CMW

MARINE

Issued at 1223 PM CDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Increasingly hazardous winds, seas and swells are still expected this afternoon into Friday as Hurricane Isaias strengthens and approaches the central Gulf coast. Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through 1 AM Saturday, with the potential for winds of 15-25 knots and seas of 6-9 feet. Elevated water levels during times of high tide (above 3.5 ft MLLW) and increased risk of rip currents are also anticipated due to this tropical system. Winds and seas decrease Saturday, subsiding to 10-15 knots and 2-4 feet by Sunday. Showers and storms will be possible almost daily with higher rain chances expected next week.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 66 90 66 89 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 70 90 70 87 / 0 30 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 76 86 75 84 / 0 20 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through late Friday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.