textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be a last day for warmer than average high temperatures before the arrival of our next cold front.

- Expect scattered to numerous showers along and ahead of that front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Should the timing of any rain line up well with the warmest part of the afternoon, some embedded thunderstorms could also occur.

- After a brief cool down to near seasonal averages in the midweek, expect above normal temperatures to return by Friday, and carry through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Monday was a day that started relatively chilly with even some folks down around freezing...but by afternoon, we saw a temperatures on the warm side of average, and even pushing over 70 degrees in some spots thanks to the return of onshore flow. To pair with that, tonight looks quite mild, setting us up for another warm day on Tuesday...at least until the cold front comes in.

One interesting thing we'll have to look at is the specific timing of the front. If it swoops in very near peak heating, but just a little too late to chop down temps, we will be in the situation where temps can really race up well into the 70s for much of the area with southwest flow and a bit of compressional heating as well. The current timing would tend to support this outcome, so the temperature forecast reflects it. Also...this gives us a small zone of instability just ahead of the front, plus a bit of mechanical forcing just ahead/along the boundary. And...while not super impressive, perhaps a bit of a diffluent pattern in the upper jet? That one's much more iffy. All in all, to me it adds up to a scenario in which we get some isolated embedded thunderstorms in the broader development of showers.

North winds develop in the wake of the front, and while the coldest air brought on by this system looks to stay hemmed up in Canada, enough modestly colder air should filter in to bring us back to to near-average temps for the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. But, with onshore flow returning by Thursday evening, we'll keep the weather train chugging right along and give us a warming trend into the weekend. I don't deviate much from NBM here as it seems to have a relatively decent handle on the big picture in this progressive, relatively low amplitude pattern. There's always the ironing out of its weird quirks that routinely pop up, but not much need to make wholesale changes here. I've got Friday pegged as a day pretty similar to today, with even more warmth building in for the weekend. By Sunday, the warmest spots in the area will be looking to reach for the 80 degree mark.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 503 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

MVFR cigs are expected to develop overnight from about the Houston area and I-10 corridor points north, especially after 06Z. A few stray showers possible at the coast this evening. But the best chance of SHRA is expected to occur tomorrow. Isolated to widely scattered SHRA is possible in the morning and early afternoon. The better chance of SHRA is associated with a cold front that will push southward across the region during the afternoon and evening hours tomorrow. We have pushed back the highest chance for SHRA relative to the previous update. But we suspect there will be some SHRA activity as early as the morning hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Small craft should exercise caution through tonight and tomorrow morning, with onshore flow reaching very near Small Craft Advisory thresholds, along with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Indeed, a couple observations from farther offshore are right up on the advisory threshold - and a need for a small, short advisory may emerge overnight. Regardless, winds decrease Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches, with showers likely along and ahead of the front. There may also be some patchy fog as those winds weaken just before the front arrives.

Once the front passes, expect gusty north winds to develop for Wednesday and Thursday. Anticipate a need for small craft advisories with these gusty winds, particularly Wednesday into Wednesday night. Fortunately, while confidence is quite high that winds will reach advisory-level (approaching 100 percent probabilities in the experimental NBM v5), confidence is similarly high that this appears to be a relatively low-end wind event as well, with a modestly cold airmass making its way over cold waters. Those same probabilities that are so high for advisory conditions are virtually nil for gale conditions.

Another thing we will need to watch for following the frontal passage is the potential return of low water on the bays. The hope is that recovery in this stretch of onshore winds and higher astronomical tides will help mitigate low water conditions after the post-frontal north winds develop. Still, at least some negative tides are anticipated and may fall low enough to prompt another advisory, with Wednesday evening's low tide cycle being a particular concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 58 71 42 64 / 10 50 10 0 Houston (IAH) 58 72 47 64 / 20 60 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 65 51 61 / 10 40 70 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 9 AM CST Tuesday for GMZ350-355-370-375.