textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to gale will be possible.

- There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf- facing beaches through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Currently observing a widespread cumulus field across SE Texas this afternoon via GOES-19. May see a few brief showers pop up along the sea breeze as it moves inland; however, soundings and SPC mesoanalysis show a pretty capped environment, so not expecting too much sea breeze activity.

For tonight, expect increasing cloud cover as onshore flow continues to funnel in moisture and southeast Texas becomes positioned in the warm sector of an incoming low pressure system. Lows will remain on the mild side as cloud cover blankets the region. Expect temperatures to range from mid to upper 60s across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods and into the upper 60s to low 70s across the Houston Metro, Coastal Plains, and Upper Texas Coast.

The aforementioned low pressure system will continue to push eastward across the Central Plains during the day Saturday. A cold front associated with the system will pass through SE Texas during the day, entering the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods around late morning, the Houston Metro around mid-afternoon, and off the coast around early evening. As moisture pools with pockets of convergence, isolated showers may develop during the morning hours across the coastal counties.

Around that time, light showers will enter the NW border of the CWA ahead of and along the frontal boundary. Daytime heating will allow conditions to destabilize as the front moves further southeast and approaches the Houston metro. Expect to see coverage and intensity of showers increase, with thunderstorm potential also increasing. PWAT values around this time are expected to approach or reach the climatological maximum. This will lead to some storms producing heavy downpours and result in isolated instances of urban and street flooding, or flooding in areas with poor drainage. WPC has placed portions of southeast Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

Speaking a little more on the thunderstorm potential, overall expectation is that storms will remain sub-severe, however, short-term guidance has highlighted pockets of higher instability, stronger shear, and low CIN (particularly around the Houston Metro and east of I-45). In addition to this, the right entrance region of an upper level jet will be positioned near the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. Currently SPC has a Marginal Risk area just outside of this area. While the majority of the storms should remain sub- severe, will need to monitor for the potential for a few stronger storms in the aforementioned areas(damaging winds being the main hazard). Looking like the best potential for stronger storms may occur around the time of peak daytime heating (mid-afternoon to before sunset).

As the front pushes through, expect showers and storms to continue during the overnight hours into Sunday morning. This can be attributed to an 850mb front that will follow behind the surface front and take advantage of the deep plume of moisture still available. Activity will end from NW to SE during the morning hours on Sunday.

Behind the front, particularly Saturday night into Sunday afternoon, expect winds to become northerly and breezy. For inland areas winds may gust up to 25 mph. Closer to the coast expect gusts to around 30 mph.

Cooler weather will follow behind the front as well, with daytime highs in the low 70s and overnight lows in the 50s for Sunday and Monday. Southerly flow will return Monday night and lead to a gradual uptick in moisture and temperatures through the remainder of the week. Expect highs in the mid to upper 70s on Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s on Wednesday. Highs are anticipated to increase into the mid-80s around late week next week.

Rain chances return late Monday into Tuesday and again Wednesday into Thursday as weak disturbances traverse the southern Plains into the Gulf Coast. Will need to monitor locations south of I-10 for potential heavy rain Monday into Tuesday. WPC currently has the majority of this area outlooked in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 605 AM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

MVFR cigs prevail at most sites except IAH and HOU this morning, though some brief reductions to MVFR are possible at these sites over the next couple hours. Cigs should rise to VFR at all terminals late this morning. Gusty SSE winds will develop this afternoon with gusts around 25 kt expected. Winds will subside this evening with MVFR cigs returning overnight. For IAH, SHRA will begin to develop late Saturday morning, but any TS will hold off until after 18z Saturday.

Young

MARINE

Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

Small craft should continue to exercise caution as moderate south-southeasterly winds (15-20kt) and 3-5ft seas persist through Friday night. A tightening pressure gradient across the region may lead to gusts to 25kt Friday afternoon/evening, and if these gusts are frequent enough then a Small Craft Advisory may be issued.

A decrease in the winds is expected Saturday morning ahead of an approaching cold front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the cold front's passage. It is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night ushering in strong north to northeasterly winds that will persist into late Sunday. Sustained winds of 20-30kt are expected with gusts to 35kt possible, which will lead to building seas of 7-10ft seas. Small Craft Advisories will be likely Saturday night into Sunday evening, but Gale conditions cannot be ruled out. Winds gradually lower and veer through Monday with southeasterly flow expected by Monday night.

The persistent onshore winds will lead to increased wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). There will also be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches.

Bailey/Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 75 51 74 / 0 50 70 0 Houston (IAH) 71 82 56 74 / 0 60 80 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 78 62 74 / 0 30 80 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until midnight CDT tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.