textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Few storms may clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area early today... cannot fully rule out a stronger storm or two.

- Low but non-zero chance of a strong to severe storm this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s and isolated daily rain chances continue through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Much like yesterday, we're once again keeping a close eye on ongoing convection over north-central/northeast Texas early this morning. Outflow from these storms has the potential to once again clip the northern zones of our CWA early this morning. Guidance still wants these storms to peter our before reaching us... though given how one storm managed to hold together and reach Houston county yesterday morning, I would be skeptical putting complete trust into the deterministic solutions of the CAMs. These CAMs are also showing sparse coverage in the afternoon, and while I don't doubt that the afternoon should likely be largely quiet for most of the area, I still don't want to fully exclude the possibility of a stronger storm or two. Again, the environment should be primed with SFC CAPE around 1700-3500 J/KG and 6km shear around 35-40 knots. Steep midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 DegC/km are progged for the afternoon, suggesting the potential for large hail. We still have strong capping around 850mb, even a tad stronger than that of yesterday. Though once again, if a storm can mange to pull itself together, then it could be fairly potent, thus we'll continue to monitor the severe weather threat closely.

For next week, a shortwave trough is still expected to fill northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and impulses to move over SE Texas. Expect rising rain chances through late next week. Around Friday, another mid/upper level shortwave trough will move through Texas, pushing a more robust cold front through the area. Should see more widespread showers and storms throughout the FROPA. Breezy conditions set in on Saturday as cooler & drier air fill in behind the front.

03

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 639 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

MVFR-IFR CIGs are anticipated to build in from the coast tonight. Fog and lower CIGs to LIFR levels may also develop in spots, particularly in areas closer to the coastline early Sunday morning. During the overnight hours, we'll have to watch for some possible showers and storms to the north/northeast of KUTS due to outflow coming from northeast Texas. CIGs should slowly scatter and lift out Sunday morning through the afternoon with VFR conditions prevailing thereafter. MVFR-IFR conditions fill back in Sunday night.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold front could bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 72 90 73 91 / 20 20 0 20 Houston (IAH) 74 90 74 90 / 10 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 74 83 75 84 / 10 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.