textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry conditions with a gradual warming trend are expected through much of the work-week.

- Near-record temperatures possible by mid-week with highs in the mid to upper 80s.

- Next best chance for rain and storms arrives late Friday into Saturday with the next cold front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Stratus clouds and fog are the primary weather concerns in the near term. Stubborn clouds associated with a departing upper- trough continue to move southward across our northwestern counties. As the night progresses, expect these clouds to spread south- southwest into the I-45 corridor through early morning. Areas west of I-45 and south of I-10 could potentially see patchy to areas of fog over the next few hours due to radiational cooling. Fog will become dense at times.

Fog and clouds should dissipate and lift by mid Monday morning. Upper-level ridge prevails over the region, resulting in warm and dry conditions with highs generally in the 70s. Even warmer conditions are expected on Tuesday; though it will be gusty at times. A tightening pressure gradient associated to a mid-to upper- level trough across West Texas will keep breezy southwesterly winds.

Ridging aloft will flatten and break down after Tuesday, as a surface low and associated frontal boundary develop across the Plains. Southeast TX will be positioned in the warm front, experiencing persistent southerly flow. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest above-normal temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday, based on NAEFS and ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index. However, we'll continue to monitor cloud coverage during this period, as it will also be a key factor in daytime heating. An uptick in low to mid- level moisture ahead of the main front will pull more moisture and clouds into the region. As of now, will continue with a blend of NBM and the 75th percentile of the NBM to forecast high temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, mainly by Thursday. The aforementioned frontal boundary will finally enter SE TX sometime between late Friday and Saturday. Rain and storm chances possible ahead of and along the boundary.

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

With stratus deck to the east still eroding, have tapped the brakes on emergence of MVFR at the I-45 terminals, but still bring us there in the end. First hints of fog beginning to emerge at CXO, so keep the IFR TEMPOs in place at the three problem sites (along with SGR and LBX). Still can expect a return to VFR in the morning, with SE winds around/just above 5 knots.

MARINE

Issued at 1123 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Sight offshore winds and low seas will prevail tonight through Monday, before onshore winds resume after midday. Moderate onshore winds will strengthen on Tuesday into Wednesday with gusts reaching up to 20 knots at times. Dry conditions continue throughout the week with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow. The next best rain chances arrive Friday into the weekend ahead and a long of the next FROPA.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 47 74 53 80 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 73 56 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 65 59 71 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.