textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Rain chances return tonight due to another coastal low and incoming cold front with the greatest coverage of the showers and isolated thunderstorms likely remaining along the coast.

- Additional passing disturbances will provide intermittent periods of rain behind the front Thursday and Friday.

- Drier weather anticipated this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Persistent cloud cover over Southeast Texas has resulted in temperatures that are slightly cooler than what was originally forecasted. Have brought MaxT down a few degrees for today after coordination with surrounding offices.

For tonight, cloudy skies will continue and serve as an insulation to keep temperatures warmer during the overnight hours. Lows will dip into the mid 40s to low 50s north of the I-10 corridor and into the mid 50s to low 60s south of I-10.

Onshore flow will continue overnight as a coastal trough makes its way northward from the Lower Texas Coast. Moisture will continue to funnel in and PWAT values will increase to 1.5" for most of the area. 500mb impulses will move along the SW flow aloft and push through Southeast Texas during the overnight hours. This, along with strong isentropic ascent will result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Thursday.

While dynamics at the surface level do not look all that impressive with regard to severe weather potential, dynamics just above the surface look a little more active. Effective bulk shear values are around 50 kts with decent SRH and steepening lapse rates. These dynamics would favor organized supercell development with the potential for severe hail during the overnight hours. SPC has the majority of the Upper Texas Coast included in a Marginal Risk for severe weather along with the Houston Metro.

In addition to the severe weather potential, WPC has highlighted the Coastal Plains and the Houston Metro in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall through Thursday morning. Storms are likely to train as WSW flow steers storms parallel to the coastal trough, which could lead to localized flooding. HREF guidance has a streak of 3-4" within the marginal risk area.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through Friday morning and may linger into Friday afternoon as an upper level disturbance moves overhead and interacts with lingering moisture across the area.

Conditions become drier this weekend as another front pushes through with high pressure following in its wake.

Rain and cloudy skies will keep temperatures on the cooler side through Thursday and the reinforcing front will keep temperatures cool on Friday. Highs will generally be in the upper 40s to 50s inland and in the upper 50s to low 60s along the coast through the end of the week.

WAA will bring temperatures back into the 60s through the weekend ahead of the next cold front set to arrive sometime Sunday. With limited time between the previous front, return of onshore flow, and the late weekend front, it doesn't look like there will be much in the way of rainfall. Cool temperatures will return for a short period early next week, before another warming trend near the middle of the week.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 538 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

MVFR ceilings are beginning to fill in from the south. They'll likely remain in MVFR territory into the late afternoon. Then we'll see areas of rain, drizzle, fog expand across the area this evening and overnight. There will probably be some embedded storms as well. Could see some localized heavy downpours in the metro and coastal areas in the 3-9z timeframe. Messy conditions with IFR prevailing...and maybe LIFR at times well into Thurs. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1121 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Southeasterly winds will increase to around 15kt this Wednesday afternoon. A coastal low is expected to develop late tonight into Thursday bringing not only widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms, but also moderate to strong northeasterly winds on the north side of the system. Small Craft Advisories may be needed as early as Thursday morning with northeasterly winds increasing to 15-25kt, and seas climbing to 4-6ft. The system will push to the east late Thursday into Friday leading to a lowering of the winds, but lingering moisture will lead to scattered shower activity through Saturday morning. Patchy fog will also be possible as the high moisture and lowering winds overlap.

Light to occasionally moderate northeasterly winds will then persist through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 53 48 49 42 / 20 80 60 20 Houston (IAH) 55 51 53 46 / 20 90 80 40 Galveston (GLS) 66 59 61 51 / 30 90 90 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ370-375.