textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through this evening, with the risk of Rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches continuing throughout the week.

- Isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorm chances daily, mostly during the afternoon hours. Chances will increase Sunday into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1241 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

Isolated to scattered shower activity early this afternoon will continue through the rest of the afternoon with maybe a few claps of thunder in some spots. Surface high pressure to the east is continuing moist southeasterly flow across the region, but with the mid-level ridge overhead, the robustness of convective activity is limited. With dew points ranging in the mid-70s to lower 80s resulting in apparent temperatures nearing or exceeding 100 degrees, heat impacts during the afternoon will become more pronounced as we advance through the rest of the week, as Moderate HeatRisk will affect those who are sensitive to heat and/or those without adequate cooling/hydration options available for multiple days.

Daily afternoon isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms with heat indicies mostly at or above 100 degrees will continue over the next couple of days as subtropical ridging remains overhead. A slight uptick in heat indicies going into and through the weekend warrants monitoring as they near Heat Advisory territory.

Otherwise, an area of tropical low pressure development over the next couple of days near the Bay of Campeche will be worth monitoring for what looks like another push of tropical moisture into the region this weekend. At this time, the NHC has only a 10% chance of development into a tropical cyclone, with the movement of this disturbance making landfall over eastern Mexico late this weekend. Coupled with an anomalous mid-level troughing feature for this time of year deepening over the Plains, as advertised by the majority of ensemble guidance, the stubborn subtropical ridging over southeast Texas would weaken. Under this scenario of weakening mid-level heights, a very moist airmass, and possible frontal lift would provide for an opportunity for a very wet period that would be favored beginning as early as late this weekend and lasting into (at least) early next week.

Young

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Jun 10 2026

VFR conditions currently across SE TX sites along with SE winds at 07-13 KTS with occasional gusts up to 20 KTS. A llvl jet of around 25 KTS will build overhead overnight and may keep winds near 10 KTS instead of relaxing to below 5 KTS. MVFR cigs are expected to return late tonight into Thu morning, gradually lifting after 15Z. For Thu, mostly VFR conditions are expected along with S-SE winds between 08-14 KTS with occasional gusts of around 20 KTS, in particular during the afternoon hours. We could see some iso showers pass through during the day, but chances are low (less than 10%).

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1101 PM CDT Tue Jun 9 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected throughout the rest of the work week with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags are in effect for tonight as sustained winds 15-20 knots are anticipated for the bays and nearshore waters. Continued elevated winds/seas will need to be monitored, especially for this weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising over the weekend into early next week. A Rip Current Statement is in effect until 9 pm this evening for moderate to high risk of rip currents across Gulf facing beaches. The moderate to high risk rip current conditions are anticipated to continue through early next week.

Young/03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 93 77 93 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 91 78 92 / 0 10 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 82 88 82 88 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Thursday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.