textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Precipitation chances transition to the coastal waters through midweek as some drier air filters in to inland portions of the region.

- Rain chances return during the second half of the week, mainly across southern parts of Southeast Texas, as a coastal trough becomes re-established offshore.

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected today and this evening, and then again later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

The frontal boundary (along with any rain chances)remains well offshore this afternoon. The result of a drier airmass can be seen on GOES satellite imagery, with much of SE Texas experiencing partly cloudy to sunny skies. Locations along the coast are in closer proximity to the offshore boundary and a coastal trough, so they remain socked in with broken to overcast skies. A few showers and an isolated storm may find their way to the coast with the afternoon sea breeze. Expect this trend to continue through the next couple of days.

By mid week, high pressure will lift further NE, and a mid-level trough will develop across northern Mexico and West Texas. Closer to the coast we will see an increase in moisture as the frontal zone and coastal trough drift northward. This will result in an uptick in rain chances for locations south of the I-10 corridor and along the coast.

Bailey

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail across the majority of the area as the afternoon progresses. Coastal terminal are anticipated to gain VFR CIGs in the evening as coastal moisture continues to move off shore. NE winds up to 10kts with occasional gusts to 20kts continue into the evening. Winds relax during the night with a shift to a more NNE heading. Tomorrow afternoon winds pick back up to the NE and the VFR conditions persist.

CMW

MARINE

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

Cool front remains offshore this afternoon with moderate to strong NE winds and elevated seas continuing into the evening hours. Periods of rain will continue along the coast and offshore into Tuesday...more so in the Gulf waters. Winds and seas will slightly diminish toward midweek, but increase once again during the second half of the work week as a coastal trough and unsettled weather across the western Gulf tracks back northward toward the coast.

Bailey

TROPICAL

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Mon Oct 5 2026

A trough of low pressure over the SW Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Currently, there is around 80% chance of development. Wind shear appears like it could be fairly strong across northwest parts of the Gulf coast later this week, and any development that occurs is expected to track north and east away from SE Texas, but let's keep an eye on things. Climatologically speaking, the southern, east central, and eastern portions of the Gulf tend to be more prone to seeing tropical systems in the month of October. Regardless of any tropical development...winds, seas and rain chances will increase in the local marine environment during the second half of the week with a coastal trough in place.

Bailey/47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 66 86 65 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 72 90 72 / 20 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 86 77 87 78 / 20 20 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355- 370-375.