textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front, and showers and storms will continue move through this afternoon. A few strong storms possible.

- Drier and seasonable weather tonight into early Thursday.

- Scattered showers moves back inland Thursday, but another cold frontal passage is forecast Thursday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Scattered to widespread showers with some embedded thunderstorms will continue to move east-northeast across the rest of the region as a cold front progresses through this afternoon. The combination of daytime heating, and 0-6 km bulk shear of 35 to 40 knots over the next few hours will favor a slight increase in instability (destabilization) as the boundary moves east along the I-10 and into the coastal zones. This environment may support a few stronger thunderstorms with gusty winds being the primary risk. While the best dynamic and forcing for severe weather remain well to our north; 0-1 km shear around 15-20 kts across our northeastern counties means a brief isolated tornado cannot be ruled out. Overall, the front is expected to cross the Houston metro early this afternoon, reaching the bays and coastal waters by mid-to late afternoon.

Drier and slightly cooler air filters in behind the front tonight into Wednesday. A cool night is expected tonight with lows in the 50s and in the 60s over the Houston metro and along the coast. Mostly sunny skies, with low humidity and highs in the 70s can be expected for Wednesday. Take advantage of it!

Deep Gulf moisture will flow back into the region in association with a weak surface trough tracking northward along the Texas coast. PWs will gradually increase to the 1.4 to 1.9 inch range, particularly along and south of I-10 Thursday into Friday. In addition to the surface trough, another cold front is forecast to move through later on Thursday, sweeping down off the coast by early Friday. With enough moisture remaining over the region and surface convergence, will probably see scattered showers with a few thunderstorms increasing offshore and over the barrier islands, with precipitation expanding inland during the day with some daytime heating. Overall, the best rain/storm chances will remain over the coastal counties through early Friday.

The main weather story Friday into the weekend is that temperatures will be below normal over the region. The real temperature changes should be felt Sunday, Monday and Tuesday mornings as lower humidities are coupled with lower min temperatures with readings in the mid 40s north to around the low 60s along the coast. Highs will generally be in the upper 60s and low 70s through the weekend. Regarding precipitation, medium-range models still differ in the pattern late this weekend into early next week with the GFS suggesting a weak ridge over the Plains, while the ECMWF continues to bring a cutoff low across Mexico, increasing rain chances over SE TX. Overall, have kept PoPs as NBM suggests with a 15 to 30% chance of rain/storms. Trending drier early next week.

JM

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

A passing front is bringing sub-VFR conditions to all TAF sites as it brings numerous showers/thunderstorms. Current radar observations show fast movement to the east and a developing southward band, which is impacting the timing of showers/thunderstorms in the TAFs. KCLL and KUTS are already post- frontal at the start of the cycle, with both TAF sites back to VFR by 20Z. Confidence in storm timing and intensity for TAF sites further south is lower, but there is general model agreement in showers and thunderstorms bringing MVFR cigs/vis to the metro sites during the 18Z to 21Z period, and the coastal TAF sites during the 19Z to 24Z period. Diurnal heating could fuel stronger storms as the front passes, bringing a possibility of cigs/vis below MVFR, gusty winds, and lightning. By 01Z this evening, all TAF sites return to VFR with the front offshore. Winds go calm and VRB at our northern TAF sites, while TAF sites further south maintain NNW/N winds at 5-10 kts. GLS will see elevated sustained winds of 10-15 kts continue throughout the evening and overnight hours.

JMG

MARINE

Issued at 1243 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Light onshore winds will gradually transition to the north- northwest early this evening as a cold front moves through. Winds become moderate behind the boundary with gusts around 20 to 25 knots possible this evening through early Wednesday morning. Caution flag conditions are expected for the BAys and Gulf waters late this evening through early Wednesday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be needed well offshore for a short window overnight. Showers and thunderstorms are expected ahead of and along the front this afternoon and late this evening. Onshore flow will resume Wednesday night, before the next frontal passage late Thursday night into early Friday.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 53 73 51 / 90 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 83 58 77 56 / 90 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 65 75 67 / 60 40 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 9 PM CST this evening through late tonight for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.