textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, and more humid weather is expected through the week.

- Chance of isolated to scattered showers Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning as a disturbance moves through.

- Areas of fog and sea fog during the nighttime and morning hours remain possible on a daily basis for much of the week. Higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast (see discussion below).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

CONUS-wide Water vapor imagery overlaid with the 500 MB RAP analysis show a well defined split-flow pattern. The polar jet is well north of the Lone Star State. Meanwhile, the subtropical jet that's draped across southern CONUS and northern Mexico is somewhat broken up, thanks to the deep cut-off low centered over the Baja Peninsula. This low is expected to push northeastward towards our neck of the woods, but the system is likely to become a less amplified trough as it does so. Therefore, the convective side of this system (as evident on IR satellite over Far West Texas and northern Mexico) is likely to become less convective as the system's synoptic ascent weakens. Global models are still showing some vorticity being thrown our way Tuesday into Wednesday. So the lift will not be zero, but certainly not what it is now. At the surface, high pressure to our east will continue providing moist onshore flow, resulting in warmer and more humid than normal condition through much of the week. With ample LL moisture coupled with the aforementioned vorticity, we will likely have some scattered shower activity over parts of the region Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday morning. Perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is not out of the question.

Let's take moment to talk about fog. The pattern in place is technically a decent set up for overnight and morning fog. However, stronger winds in the boundary layer (15-20 knots ~1000 mb) have complicated the fog forecast, particularly over marine areas. Last night, a subtle southwesterly 1000mb-900mb jet occasionally mixed down and limited (though did not prevent) fog development. For tonight, the jet will be more southerly but still ~15-20 knots (if HREF is to be believed). The southerly flow is technically more favorable for fog than last night's southwesterly flow. But 15-20 knots in the boundary layer is on the strong side for fog. I think the safe bet is to keep fog in the forecast, especially since we still managed areas of dense fog this morning. But unless the guidance is way off concerning those boundary winds tonight, do not expect the extremely dense and widespread fog we saw on Sunday morning. Winds aloft should decrease as the weak progresses, suggesting an increasing fog threat as we approach mid-week. For the coast, the fog threat later this week will depend on how much water temps manage to warm.

Longer range data suggests another deep subtropical trough/low over NW Mexico by week's end that will push towards Texas over the weekend. As the guidance currently stands, the system would remain robust enough to bring a good chance of showers and thunderstorms to the region. That being said, the guidance once looked more optimistic for rainfall with the Tuesday-Wednesday system. So keep that in mind when looking at the higher PoPs this weekend.

Regarding temperatures, we are expecting afternoon temps in the mid 70s to low 80s (cooler at the coast) generally in the 60s. Perhaps we can cool those temperatures down somewhat depending on the weekend system. Also, a weak front may sneak into the area Wednesday afternoon and evening, resulting in somewhat cooler temperatures Wednesday night (maybe more 50s than 60s).

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 450 PM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

VFR conditions and southerly winds in the 8-12 kt range will prevail going into the evening hours. Like the previous nights, fog potential and low cloud ceilings will be the main story for this TAF period. The main window for fog potential will be from 08Z-15Z. Generally, the highest confidence for fog development will be for terminals near and south of CXO. However, due to winds just above the surface gradually increasing overnight into early Tuesday morning, there is potential that there could be enough mixing to limit visibility reductions. In contrast, model guidance has been underperforming on the fog forecast the past couple of nights, so opted to roll with persistence in this TAF package. Any fog that develops will subside by 15Z-16Z. MVFR ceilings may linger through 17Z-18Z before returning to VFR. Winds will be gustier Tuesday as well with sustained winds around 10-15 kt and gusts up to 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Another round of fog and low ceilings is anticipated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.

Batiste/Ehlert/Hernandez

MARINE

Issued at 1050 AM CST Mon Feb 9 2026

The primary concern this week will be the prospect of sea fog and the higher than normal uncertainty in the fog forecast. Generally light to moderate onshore flow will push high moisture levels over chilly waters through the end of the week. This is normally a very favorable setup for sea fog, especially at night and during the morning hours. However, winds just above the surface have been on the strong side (roughly 20 knots a few hundred feet above the ground). Despite not being at the surface, these winds can lessen the severity and areal extent of fog. Last night, those winds aloft were from the southwest, a particularly unfavorable direction for sea fog. Tonight, those winds aloft will be more from the south, which is a more direction favorable relatively speaking (southeast being the most preferred). So the direction of the wind is expected to become more favorable, while wind speeds aloft remain a little too strong. That being said, fog could be more widespread if these winds manage to be a few knots lower than forecast.

Model guidance is suggesting lighter winds aloft as we approach the middle to later portion of the week, suggesting the sea fog risk could rise. However, this will also depend on how much water temperatures respond to the warm, sunny weather in the coming days. That being said, our forecast continues to show a daily risk of sea fog through the end of the week, with the best chance of fog occurring during the overnight and morning hours.

A system by the end of the week could bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms, along with increasing winds and seas. Confidence in the forecast that far out is low.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 60 79 60 76 / 0 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 62 78 61 79 / 0 0 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 60 71 59 72 / 0 0 20 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.