textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Marginal Risk of severe wx clips our northern zones today. Larger risk area, including excessive rainfall, for SE Texas on Wednesday.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s through Wednesday. Cooler with rising rain chances afterwards.

- Late April cold front should push through the area Friday night with cooler and breezy wx in its wake.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Subtropical high pressure builds in from the south today, establishing a zonal flow pattern aloft and thus allowing several shortwave impulses to pass over the region throughout the next several days. Rain chances are poised to be on the rise with each passing day. For today at least, CAMs are a bit more bear with convection placed north of our CWA. Regardless, this is still a rather potent environment with SFC CAPE around 1500-3500 J/KG with 6km shear of 35-45 knots. Forecast soundings, compared to previous runs, show the cap eroding a fairly strong amount during the afternoon. Still seeing some midlevel dry air, but again those mid level lapse rates are still steep at 8.0-8.7 DegC/KM. SPC has a marginal risk (level 1/5) for severe storms clipping our northern counties for today. If storms can pull together, all hazards will be on the table, though strong winds and hail will be the primary hazards.

Wednesday should see some changes to this broader weather pattern. We'll see a cold front push in from the north during the day, which should help kick start some storms. We trade instability for better shear, with some skinner CAPE profiles looking slightly more favorable for rainfall efficiency. The final location of the FROPA is uncertain, either stalling somewhere over the Brazos Valley or closer to the coastline. In either case, we're outlooked for a Marginal (level 1/5) risk for severe weather and a Marginal (level 1/4) risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Storms will be capable of damaging winds, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Rain chances continue to rise through Thursday. By Friday, a stronger mid/upper level shortwave trough will begin to fill through the southern Plains. This should bring widespread showers and scattered storms throughout the day, along with sending a stronger cold front our way late Friday night. Breezy conditions and cooler weather follow on Saturday, with lingering rain chances throughout the day, tapering off into Sunday morning. Onshore winds return Sunday night with conditions warming up into next week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 631 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Expect similar trends this evening as previous days. However, current satellite imagery suggest cigs will drop faster this evening and tonight, especially in our southern and coastal zones (IAH down to the coast). We think there is a higher chance of IFR than last night, along with the potential for patchy fog. Vis/cigs gradually improve tomorrow morning as winds increase from the south to south-southeast. Gusts over 20 knots appear likely by late morning or early afternoon tomorrow.

MARINE

Issued at 1148 PM CDT Mon Apr 27 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold front should bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend, likely warranting at least small craft advisories.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 92 75 93 73 / 20 10 20 20 Houston (IAH) 91 76 92 74 / 10 0 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 82 76 84 75 / 0 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.