textproduct: Houston/Galveston

This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot weather and low rain chances expected over the next several days.

- Greater heat stress and higher risk of triple digit highs this weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Rain chances are only downhill from this point forward as ridging slowly builds throughout the Gulf Coast. A few isolated showers and possibly a storm or two could develop this afternoon along the sea breeze. Wednesday will see rain chances become very sparse to near zero for the foreseeable future, save for the occasional passing disturbance undercutting the ridge. Speaking of the ridge, it is still progged to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify by the weekend. Midlevel heights are forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over SE Texas by this point, putting them over the 99th climatological percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM ensembles suggest greater chances for triple digit high temperatures occuring on these days, as well as early next week. WBGT Heat stress on the human body is forecasted to be high, with some isolated spots peaking at extreme. Highs will be in the 90s, breaking triple digits in spots, and heat indicies will range from 100-107 at least. Will be closely monitoring the heat each day as a result. Chances for heat-related hazard headlines still look more favorable this weekend through early next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 618 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

For the 11/00Z TAF update, ridging will gradually begin to influence the southeast Texas airspace with convective potential waning by tomorrow afternoon. That said, the lower potential for -SHRA/-TSRA remains mostly along and south of KIAH by 11/18Z-23Z. This, in combination with some additional patchy FG, means windows for MVFR/IFR vis/cigs at 11/12Z-15Z and 11/18Z-23Z, respectively. Southerly winds will also remain in the 5-10 kts. range, maximizing in speeds near 10 kts. by the end of the period. Cassel

MARINE

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected today through around Wednesday. During the second half of the work week, winds and seas will increase slightly, potentially warranting caution flags at times.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 97 76 98 77 / 10 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 79 97 79 / 20 20 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 84 / 20 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.

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