textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Through Friday: Hot and mostly dry (very slight chance of an isolated sea breeze shower/storm). Heat indices near advisory criteria.

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible by the weekend.

- Next week's outlook features seasonably hot conditions w/ a chance of isolated afternoon showers/storms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1210 AM CDT Thu Jul 30 2026

The mid/upper pattern remains amplified, with the Lone Star State under the influence of a strong ridge over western and central CONUS. Ridging should remain strong, perhaps strengthen somewhat through Friday. Ensemble guidance continues to suggest a modest increase in mid/upper pressure heights through Friday. This will keep conditions hot and mostly dry, with a slight chance of an isolated sea breeze related shower or thunderstorm. Leaning a tad cooler than the NBM worked well for us yesterday. So I went with a mix of NBM and 25th percentile NBM for our Thursday / Friday highs. But don't be fooled by the word "cooler." Highs are still expected to reach the upper 90s to around 100 in most inland areas. Dew points are expected to mix down into the low 70s today, then upper 60s to low 70s on Friday (higher at the coast). Heat indices likely to be near advisory criteria, with most areas peaking between 105F and 108F.

The pattern remains amplified going into the weekend. However, the ridge should retrograde into west CONUS while downstream troughing (currently over E CONUS) pushes westward. Ensembles are in good agreement with this scenario, showing a 500MB height drop from ~595dm on Friday to ~587dm by Sunday. Guidance is rather aggressive with an amplifying, positively tilted, deep trough on Sunday that extends from the Great Lakes into the southern Mississippi River Valley. An associated surface low is expected to push eastward across the Midwest over the weekend, with its trailing cold front pushing into E TX by Saturday. The front should be weak and increasingly diffused as it approaches our region. But it may supply sufficient lift in a less capped environment to allow for scattered shower and thunderstorm activity Saturday afternoon through early Sunday. This activity could be limited to our northern zones on Saturday, before pushing farther south Saturday night into early Sunday.

Long range guidance suggests that ridging returns next week. For now, we are leaning towards seasonably hot and humid conditions with a chance of isolated sea breeze related showers / storms.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 648 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

VFR conditions across all terminals this evening is expected to continue through the overnight hours with some lower clouds starting to build around 08Z. Generally expecting MVFR CIGs around 13-14Z mainly across northern terminals (UTS/CLL/CXO) due to low confidence elsewhere have opted to leave out of TAFs for other sites. Winds overnight through early afternoon should be light and variable with south to southwesterly winds up to around 10-11KT through the evening hours.

MARINE

Issued at 1140 PM CDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Light to moderate southwesterly winds and 2-3 foot Gulf seas are expected through Friday. By Saturday, an approaching frontal boundary is expected to tighten the low-level gradient, increasing southwesterly flow to 15-20 knots, possibly higher, by Saturday afternoon and night. Seas may increase to 4 feet as a response to the increasing winds. Caution Flags will likely be warranted. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the front are possible Saturday night into Sunday. The outlook for early next week features light to moderate southwesterly winds, 2-3 foot seas, and a slight chance of isolated showers/storms along the sea breeze boundary.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 97 76 99 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 99 78 99 / 10 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 89 / 0 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.