textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A conditional threat remains for severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging winds (tornadoes cannot be ruled out) tomorrow afternoon/evening along and north of the Highway 105 corridor.

- Post-frontal conditions will maintain near to below normal temperatures into the weekend, with a likely chance of 1-1.5 inches of rain areawide by Monday.

- Drier and warmer conditions will return by early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

A relatively active weather pattern will continue across southeast Texas as we sit firmly in the pathway of southwesterly flow aloft for the rest of the week. This flow is positioned between broad troughing across the Upper Great Plains and broad ridging across Mexico into parts of the Gulf. All of this flow is being amplified (in-part) by a slowly-moving area of low pressure set to move across the Baja Peninsula. This, in combination with lift from an incoming frontal boundary through the day on Wednesday, will present a somewhat favorable spatiotemporal window for convection across east-central Texas into Deep East Texas. The "somewhat" comes into play due to a persistently dry 700-850mb layer that will set a significant convective threshold (or cap) against the development of severe thunderstorms. High-resolution guidance picks up on this cap with a rather paltry convective distribution, however, any storms that can get through the cap will still have some ingredients to work with (2500+ J/kg of CAPE, mid-level lapse rates of 7-7.5 C/km, and 30-40+ kts. of bulk wind shear). Large hail, damaging winds and tornado threats remain on the table as a result.

Beyond this upcoming window for severe weather in the next 24-36 hours, post-frontal isentropic uplift will be the main convective theme and source of precipitation through the weekend. With the area of low pressure still slowly approaching West Texas by Friday, it will inject overrunning southwesterly flow with vorticity to instigate more widespread rounds of convection into Saturday and make this the wettest time period in the current forecast range. WPC Day 1-7 QPF forecasts of 1-1.5 inches are mostly from this round of rainfall. Long-range guidance suggests a drier and warmer period (temperature maximums/minimums in the mid-to-upper 80s/upper 60s) by Monday as the next frontal boundary arrives and the area of low pressure finally weakens and shifts eastward into Louisiana.

Cassel

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 641 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

MVFR to IFR conditions with CIGs between 700-1500ft will persist through the mid-morning, then become predominately MVFR with pockets of VFR conditions this afternoon (BKN to SCT at 2000ft). Isolated showers and thunderstorms will begin to pop-up later this morning and continue into this evening. Areas north of I-10 and east of I-45 will have the best (although still low) chance of thunderstorms this afternoon, so have included a PROB30 TS for UTS, CXO, and IAH. Coverage of the TS will end this evening, but isolated showers may persist along the coast into Thursday morning. IFR conditions with CIGs down to 600ft and patchy fog are expected to prevail beginning around 3-8z this evening and persist into Thursday morning.

Light southerly winds will continue into this afternoon, but a weak cold front pushing through the region will lead to a gradual wind shift to the west then north this evening from north to south.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026

Onshore flow will maintain some brief activity for seas with light to moderate swells in the next 24 hours ahead of a frontal boundary. Once the frontal boundary is offshore by Thursday, showers and thunderstorms are more likely (30-50% chance of development), especially by Friday into Saturday. Post-frontal northerly to northeasterly winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory, however, wind speeds could still exceed 20 kts. overnight Thursday further offshore into the Gulf. Long-range guidance suggests another chance of post-frontal showers/thunderstorms offshore beginning later on Sunday.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 65 74 62 / 30 20 0 40 Houston (IAH) 86 70 78 66 / 50 10 20 40 Galveston (GLS) 83 75 81 72 / 10 10 40 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.