textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms today.

- Next storm system moves into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized strong storms and/or heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Broad mid-upper trof situated over Texas with a vort/MCV rotating around north central Texas early this morning. This feature should sag southward a bit today, and allow for some scattered late afternoon/evening showers and tstm development. (Better chances across the northern half of the region).

Tuesday, this trof/weakness lifts north. Eyes then turn to the west again as yet another shortwave trof begins approaching the region. Guidance is in still in pretty good agreement showing another complex of storms pushing across southeast Texas late Tuesday night and Wed. Increased southerly flow in advance will drive PW's up into the 1.8-2.1" range. This deeper moisture, along with broad upper diffluence aloft should set the stage for some healthy tstm activity and a possibility for regenerating/training cells. Incoming 00z model deterministic rain totals are generally in the 1-2" range, though some (UKMET, ICON) are also showing some localized 3-5" amounts in/near some of our coastal counties which received elevated totals last week. Too early to pin down the specifics, but something we'll be keeping an eye on.

Depending on this systems movement and/or mesoscale factors, we should see precip tapering off Wed night or Thurs morning. The remainder of the week looks less eventful as some subtle mid level ridging builds in. A mix of guidance tries to bring a weak backdoor front into portions of the region later this weekend. 47

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 640 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

VFR conditions begin the TAF period across the forecast area. E/SE winds around 5-10kts are apparent at nearly all terminals as of 23z. A few sea breeze induced thunderstorms developed around Jackson County, though have continued to move westward and little to no development has been noted closer to TAF sites. Diurnal convection chances continue to decrease over the next few hours, though a cluster of thunderstorms may move southward towards Houston County through 03z. Overnight, MVFR ceilings and visibilities are increasingly likely at terminals along and north of I-10, including KIAH. The peak time frame for the MVFR conditions looks to be 10- 13z. A few terminals may briefly hit IFR should fog form, most likely at KUTS and KCXO. Further south, low-end VFR conditions should remain throughout the night. VFR conditions return during the morning to early afternoon hours, and then another round of isolated to scattered sea breeze convection may impact terminals closer to the shoreline in the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light to moderate east winds will prevail tonight and Monday, eventually increasing out of the southeast on Tuesday. There will be some isolated showers and thunderstorms possible at times. Onshore winds ramp up Tuesday night ahead of the next disturbance and associated storms (some possibly strong) that should move into the waters late Tuesday night and Wednesday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 87 70 88 72 / 30 30 20 80 Houston (IAH) 89 71 88 75 / 20 20 30 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 85 79 / 20 20 30 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.