textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Daily chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms begin Wednesday with the greatest chances late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front moves into/through the area. - Unseasonably warm weather persists through Saturday, then the cold front ushers in cooler, more seasonal temperatures by Sunday and extending into early next week.

- Increasing risk of strong rip currents Thursday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

In last night's discussion, we talked about how the fog potential would be inhibited by winds remaining elevated thanks to elevated winds aloft from a nearby LLJ. Whelp, we have the results and it turns out our theory was correct! Go us!!! With that in mind, we have another round of ~25 kt winds aloft which well help keep winds a bit elevated overnight. Since we know what happened last night with a similar setup, we can have a bit higher confidence on fog potential being inhibited tonight as well. It's not entirely impossible though...just on the off chance fog develops just to prove us wrong. Onshore flow will continue to increase low-level moisture, which will lead to low temperatures mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s. Just for comparison, our normal HIGH temperature for this time of the year is in the upper 70s. Daytime temperatures will continue to be above normal with highs in the mid to upper 80s, but there will be a few instances where we deviate from this thanks to the return of rain chances!

Having rain chances in the forecast feels like a victory in and of itself! The last time that the City of Houston had observable rainfall (more than a trace) was March 11th...nearly three weeks ago! As you can imagine, that's not great for the ongoing drought situation. ~83% of Southeast Texas remains in at least a severe drought, but there is FINALLY some relief on the way. This rainfall won't take us out of drought conditions completely, but it certainly won't cause further degradations.

The first opportunity for rainfall comes on Wednesday into Thursday. PW values reach near or above the 90th percentile (~1.50") by late Wednesday. Couple that with a LLJ, a passing embedded shortwave, and daytime heating, and we have potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours. As a shortwave trough pushes through the Four Corners region on Wednesday, a subsequent surface low will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and drift northeastward. An associated cold front will will push into the northwestern portion of the state but stall out in this region. Moisture convergence along the front will have PW values well above the 90th percentile. Divergence aloft only adds to the favorable environment for showers/storms, but the more favorable support looks to be over the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. With PW values as high as they are, locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out. The general timing for this looks to be Thursday morning into the early afternoon hours. PW values remain elevated going into Friday and with more passing embedded shortwaves and daytime heating, chances for showers/storms persist.

Late Saturday into Sunday is when the next high chances of rain comes. This is due to another cold front, but this one looks to actually push through thanks to more favorable upper level support through an upper level low sweeping through the CONUS. It still remains a little too early to look into the exact synoptic details, but the ingredients do look to be in place for moderate to heavy rainfall. As a result, WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall. Model guidance still remains wishy-washy on if this front will push cleanly through or if it'll linger near the coast leading to rain chances sticking around through Sunday. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans over the holiday weekend. Cooler and more seasonal temperatures will follow in the wake of this front going into early next week.

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Wed Apr 1 2026

Widespread LIFR conditions ongoing. Expect conditions to improve to VFR by this afternoon. Winds will be out of the southeast today at 10-15 knots with gusts to around 25 kts. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are in the forecasst today between 19-23Z (give or take a couple hours). MVFR CIGs return overnight. Winds will remain elevated overnight with minimal fog expected (may develop in areas that experience lighter winds)

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1119 PM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas will persist through late Wednesday. A tightening pressure gradient late Wednesday will lead to winds and seas increasing likely warranting a period of caution flags through at least Thursday morning. This increased onshore flow will increase the risk of rip currents going into the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms throughout the week, but especially over the weekend as a cold front pushes through Saturday night. Uncertainty remains on if the cold front will push offshore or linger along the coast through Sunday. Moderate offshore flow and elevated seas are expected in the wake of this front into Monday.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 87 69 83 70 / 20 20 60 10 Houston (IAH) 85 72 83 73 / 30 10 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 78 73 79 73 / 30 0 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.