textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue today with scattered showers and storms this afternoon, mostly west of I-45.

- A cold front pushes through the region on Friday, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions this weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. Small Craft Advisories are likely, and potential gale conditions are trending upward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Ridging overtop the region and onshore winds at the surface should maintain WAA/moisture advection, keeping above normal temperatures in place through mid week. Highs remain in the upper 80s/90s with lows in the 70s/lower 80s. Scatted showers and thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon, though a slot of drier air is currently pushing into the region from the east. Satellite imagery shows a sharp moisture gradient with 2.0-2.2 inch PWs overhead, with 0.80 inch PWs pushing in from Louisiana. Best rain chances should remain mostly west of I-45 this afternoon with a lull tonight as this drier air fills in. Moisture and rain chances rise again Thursday into Friday.

A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas on Friday, bringing a significant cool down heading into the weekend. Current guidance has this cold front reaching KCLL early in the morning, later moving off the coast by the early afternoon. Scattered showers/storms may develop along the front, especially near the coast where moisture is deeper, though weak dynamics and the fast moving FROPA means that severe/hydro concerns are low for the time being. Model guidance has trended towards a faster FROPA with greater intensity as well, showing high pressure behind the front reaching 1040-1045mb over the Plains. Windy conditions are expected to set in behind the front, reaching 15-25 mph with higher gusts through the afternoon for most areas. Along the immediate coast and barrier islands, these winds could reach 25-35 mph. These winds will be strongest Friday night into Saturday morning, with Gale conditions possible over the waters.

Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows for Saturday in the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are still forecasted for Sunday morning, around the upper 40s/50s inland and lower 60s at the coast (though a few degrees cooler). Temperatures gradually warm thereafter, with rain chances increasing into next week as coastal trough sets up along the Texas Coast.

03

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 556 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

VFR conditions persist through this TAF cycle. Calm and VRB winds overnight will turn SE by mid to late morning. There is a chance of MVFR cigs/vis at CLL during the early morning hours. A 6SM BR with BKN030 cigs was included to hint at that potential. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible along the sea breeze tomorrow afternoon, but rain chances are too low to include in this TAF package.

JMG

MARINE

Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Oct 14 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through mid week and may prompt caution flags at times. A cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday, producing strong northerly winds and high seas, especially Friday night and Saturday Morning. Small Craft Advisories will be needed at minimum with Gale conditions possible. There is a 30-60% chance of sustained winds reaching Gale force over the Gulf waters early Saturday morning. Winds and seas begin to decrease Saturday afternoon, subsiding into Sunday.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 92 65 73 / 20 0 40 0 Houston (IAH) 72 92 71 79 / 0 10 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 78 87 74 81 / 0 20 70 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.