textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through at least this weekend.

- Rip Current Statement in effect through Friday morning for Gulf- facing beaches. Rip Risk is likely to continue into next week.

- Increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding starting Sunday night and lasting through at least Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

The shower activity late this morning and into the afternoon hours has been a bit more robust than the last couple of days, but any area that receives rainfall will be mostly in quick bursts upwards of 0.25-0.75" through the rest of the afternoon. A few rumbles of thunder are again possible as well.

While onshore southeasterly flow remains, afternoon highs in the upper 80s to mid-90s (31-36 Celsius) combined with dew points in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) are resulting in heat indicies generally in the 100-107 degree range (38-42 Celsius) this afternoon. Based on the current forecast, today may be the hottest "feels- like" temperatures as the weather pattern trends wetter by the end of this weekend and into early next week. However, hot and humid conditions will continue to persist, so sensitive groups or those not acclimated to the summer weather of Houston will be especially at risk of experiencing heat illness given these conditions. If you plan to spend time outdoors, make sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated and take breaks from direct sunlight when possible.

Persistent southeasterly flow will continue pose a risk for rip currents for the foreseeable future. Therefore, if you have any beach plans, make sure to watch out for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur.

Subtropical ridging remains overhead and will continue to do so into the weekend. However, an influx of moisture from the tropical disturbance forming in the Bay of Campeche tracking northward through the weekend should provide better shower/storm chances/coverage going through the weekend. The subtropical ridging will gradually weaken going into early next week, as a mid-level trough deepens across the Plains. Timing of a frontal passage with this trough has come into much better agreement amongst ensemble guidance, thus the bulk of widespread rainfall looks to be more in the Monday to Tuesday timeframe. More uncertainty exists with how quickly the front either clears or stalls over the region, so that will be worth monitoring in the coming few forecast iterations.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Showers and thunderstorms over portions of Southeast TX will continue to gradually dissipate this evening into early tonight as diurnal heating decreases. The more likely sites that could be affected from these storms from time to time are KCXO, KUTS, and KCLL. As these storms pass through, winds could become VRB at around 10-15KTS with gusts up to 20KTS possible. Winds should veer back to SE an hour or two after the storm passes. For the rest of the sites, expected VFR cigs with SE winds at 5-10KTS. Winds will relax to around 5KTS for many sites overnight, and we could once again see the development of MVFR cigs during the early morning hours (Sat), in particular over areas north of I-10. There is also a slight chance for patchy fog, mainly from 10-14Z, although confidence is low at this time. By the mid morning hours on Saturday, expect cigs to gradually lift and scatter. Winds will increase to 06-10KTS from 14-18Z and to 08-12KTS with gusts up to 20KTS on occasion after 18Z. We may see a few quick passing showers in the morning over areas near and south of I-10 and iso showers and storms in the afternoon to early evening hours over areas near and north of I-10. Storms, if any, will dissipate in the evening.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Jun 12 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds are expected into the weekend with seas of 2 to 5 feet. Caution flags may be warranted at times over the next few days, especially this weekend as seas near 6 to 7 feet offshore. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with rain chances rising over the weekend into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 92 77 92 / 10 10 10 70 Houston (IAH) 77 92 78 91 / 20 20 10 70 Galveston (GLS) 82 89 83 88 / 20 10 10 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.