textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mainly across our southwestern counties.

- Hot temperatures continue through the weekend.

- Rain and storm chances increase next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

A weak/shallow quasi-stationary boundary will attempt to slowly sag south into our region overnight into late today. A few showers will be possible ahead of and along of the boundary through around sunrise. This boundary may stall again over the region today and serve as a focus for an additional round of isolated showers and storms, mainly in the afternoon with peak daytime heating and the seabreeze. Have included slight chances of rain/storms (15-20%), mainly for our southwestern counties. With below average PWATs filtering in behind the front, Friday is shaping up drier and warm as the boundary finally moves farther south or washes out. The good news is that with drier air filtering in, most areas will see peak heat indices below 100.

The mid to upper lvl ridge flattens this weekend, while a trough expands eastward across the West CONUS, bringing a few disturbances ahead of the it. Models continue to show a gradual increase in moisture Sunday into the upcoming week. Therefore, with passing shortwaves aloft and increased moisture, diurnally driven showers and storms will be possible. Highs through the weekend will generally be in the low to mid 90s, with the warmest readings for areas west of I-45.

We'll continue to monitor the what looks to be the main rain maker through this forecast cycle. The aforementioned trough is progged to push a cold front across the Plains Wednesday into Thursday. It is still is too far out for finer details as models still differ in phase/strength as the trough moves across the Plains. However, guidance keeps suggesting an uptick in moisture with PWs at/near the max percentile of climatology. With increased cloud cover and precipitation chances, near normal temperatures are expected by midweek.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 544 AM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Winds will strengthen and become ENE later this morning while a weak boundary moves through SE Texas. Rain chances are too low to include with the current TAF, though an isolated shower/storm or two could develop near the coast today. Winds will become light and variable tonight.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1113 PM CDT Wed Sep 23 2026

Light to moderate northeast winds and 1-3 ft seas will prevail today as a weak frontal boundary moves across the region from the northeast. A few showers or storms will be possible, mainly early in the morning and in the afternoon as the front continues to move south. Caution flag conditions will be possible through at least early this afternoon. Light east winds will gradually transition to the SE by Friday and will persist into midweek. A few showers/storms are expected through the weekend; however, the best rain and storm chances are forecast to arrive next week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 98 72 95 70 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 74 93 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 81 89 82 / 10 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.