textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered seabreeze activity today. Monitoring for a potential band of storms moving in from the northeast late this afternoon/evening. Strong, gusty winds will be possible.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

- Shower/storm chances increase going into the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

What better way to start off meteorological summer than a typical summertime weather pattern with high temperatures in the 90s and sporadic showers/storms along the sea breeze...and the resultant outflow boundaries. Speaking of boundaries, a weak frontal boundary looks to approach and push through parts of Southeast Texas going into Tuesday. However, some of the latest CAM guidance reflects some convection developing along this frontal boundary and pushing in from the northwest early Tuesday morning...most of the 00Z suite has backed off of this though. If this were to occur though, some embedded stronger storms with gusty winds can't be entirely ruled out. The majority of model guidance shows this convection gradually falling apart is it moves in overnight, but we've seen in the past couple of weeks that convection can tend to hold together longer than guidance suggests. This is also a good time to mention that there is potential for patchy fog to develop again overnight into Tuesday morning.

Back to the temperatures briefly...upper level ridging will remain in place and pairing with gradually increasing low level moisture. While temperatures will be a degree or so "cooler" than Monday, they'll still be mainly in the low 90s. When you factor in the elevated humidity, heat index values will peak in the 98-104*F range. With that in mind, if you have plans to be outdoors during the afternoon hours early this week, be sure to take the proper precautions to keep yourself safe from the heat. Take breaks, stay hydrated, wear light-colored/loose clothing, and ALWAYS ALWAYS ALWAYS look before you lock your vehicle. Don't forget about your pets as well! If the ground is too hot for the palm of your hand, then it is too hot for their paws.

As we saw on Monday, the sea breeze paired with daytime heating and some embedded shortwaves underneath the ridge were enough to generate some isolated to scattered showers/storms in the afternoon. PW values on Tuesday afternoon will be near or exceeding 2" (90th percentile: ~1.88"). Pair that with an embedded shortwave trough sliding in along with a weak frontal boundary in the afternoon and that equals even more lift and more moisture than Monday. From there, we can infer that the coverage of convection on Tuesday afternoon will be a bit more widespread. For all the grade school students reading this...see we still use the scientific method! We've formulated our hypothesis based on the evidence from what occurred on Monday and what model guidance is forming a consensus on (at least in terms of increasing moisture and sources of lift)...keep an eye on the radar Tuesday afternoon to see if our theory proves correct! All that being said, we're still anticipating the sea breeze to at least be the initial initiation (we're sticking with that phrase) point for convection, but there may be some lingering outflow boundaries as well. Speaking of boundaries (deja vu from the first paragraph), the latest CAMs are depicting another round of convection moving in from the northeast Tuesday afternoon as the weak frontal boundary moves in. Southwestward moving convection this time of the year can tend to be on the strong side, so if this verifies don't be surprised to see some strong wind gusts within these storms.

It's also worth noting that with this frontal boundary in place and paired with the increased moisture, we could see isolated locations see quick bursts of 1-2+" of rainfall. As a result, portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods have been outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward. This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. The progression of the low is a little bit uncertain after it moves into northern Mexico by Friday. Most guidance takes it northeastward near the Texas Panhandle, but from there guidance is split on if it lingers or if it continues northeastward. Either way, southwest flow aloft and PW values over 2" does equal increased rain chances. The peak of this moisture looks to occur Friday into Saturday with PW values potentially nearing 2.2-2.4". This deeper tropical moisture would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, so it's not a surprise that most of Southeast Texas is already in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Friday...I can imagine parts of the area will also be outlooked for Saturday as well as we get closer to the weekend. The good news about the increased rain chances is that this means we'll have slightly lower daytime temperatures. We'll trade out the early week high temperatures in the low 90s for high temperatures in the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 548 AM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

Again seeing a mix of VFR/MVFR/IFR ceilings and vsbys early this morning. These should all trend into VFR territory in the mid morning hours. Expect some scattered seabreeze activity in the metro/coastal areas into the early afternoon hours...with additional cell development further inland with daytime heating. Attention turns to E/NE TX late in the day, where guidance is pointing to expanding storm development...eventually congealing into a broken southwest moving line. Some of these storms could be on the strong side...with gusts to 35kt+ not out of realm of possibility in/near the stronger cells. UTS/CLL should be on the lookout early in the evening. CXO, IAH, HOU, GLS then follow in the 02-06z timeframe. Hires guidance suggests some weakening with time as they push toward I-10, but these southwest movers tend to overperform (both in intensity and forward movement) so keep an eye on the wx. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through late Tuesday. A weak frontal boundary approaches the waters late Tuesday night leading to a transition to easterly winds. Cannot entirely rule a band of showers/storms in association with this boundary pushing offshore Tuesday night with potential for gusty winds. Winds transition back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night into Thursday with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, but expect these chances to increase towards the end of the work week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 92 72 88 72 / 30 50 30 30 Houston (IAH) 93 74 88 74 / 40 50 50 30 Galveston (GLS) 88 78 86 79 / 30 40 30 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.