textproduct: Houston/Galveston

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

We will continue to see additional shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon as diurnal heating and instability peaks. The GOES-19 Total Precipitation Water satellite image at 11 am this morning indicated amounts between 2.1-2.4 inches; this will lead to periods of heavy rainfall with rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches per hour at times. Ponding of water and minor flooding is possible in localized areas, in particular for storms with little movement. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate this evening as diurnal heating decreases and the environment becomes more stable.

The high temperatures this afternoon will be in the low to mid 90s with heat indices peaking between 100-107 deg F. For tonight into early Monday, warm and tranquil conditions are expected with calm/light winds and low temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 70s inland and the upper 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.

Low level moisture is expected to lower early next week, with PWs forecast to decrease to 1.8-2.1 inches on Monday and 1.7-2.0 on Tuesday. The mid level high pressure currently over the Texas Panhandle will shift into Oklahoma and models indicate increasing dams (592-594) over Southeast Texas Monday into Tuesday. Models also show drier air along the mid-levels for both days. Even with relatively good moisture amounts along the surface, overall rain chances are therefore expected to be slightly less and generally focused over areas near and south of I-10 and the coastal Gulf waters. The afternoon seabreeze will also contribute to storm development.

Chance for showers and thunderstorms may increase again on Wednesday as another surge of moisture moves in from the Gulf waters and increases the local PWs to up to around 2.2 inches. Locally heavy rain may be possible. Daily rain chances will then continue into the end of the week as the high pressure weakens over Southeast Texas (or shifts away) and a mid-upper level disturbance moves through.

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AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through the afternoon, then later taper off into the evening. Light variable winds are expected overnight. May briefly see some patchy fogs/low CIGs early Monday, though much of the area should remain VFR. Showers will develop over the Gulf waters Monday morning. Stronger ridging should result in less coverage/isolated showers inland, though cannot completely rule out a thunderstorm or two in the afternoon.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1148 AM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next several days. Although we still have chance for showers and thunderstorms early next week, coverage will be less on Monday and Tuesday as drier air moves in and high pressure builds. Higher shower and storm chances are then expected mid to late week as moisture rises and disturbances move overhead.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 95 76 95 77 / 60 0 10 10 Houston (IAH) 93 78 94 79 / 60 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 91 83 / 60 10 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.