textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered, diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms will remain in the forecast for the next several days.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast.

- Locally stronger coastal / offshore thunderstorms capable of waterspouts possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Hot, humid, and unsettled will be weather theme through at least the weekend. Satellite and radar strong evidence of a trough that extends across the Gulf from the Texas Coast to the central Gulf Coast (SE LA / MS / AL / E FL Panhandle). Mid-level WV imagery and 500 RAP imagery suggest the presence of two, broad, weak lows along the trough axis, one near the Texas Coast and other near SE Louisiana, with the strongest surface feature being associated with the Louisiana disturbance. This broad, discombobulated system will likely remain with us over the next few days, enhancing offshore convection overnight into the morning, and inland convection during the late morning and afternoon hours. Some coastal and marine thunderstorms have been strong over the last few days, with gusts over 30 knots and even a few waterspouts reported. We suspect that will possible through at least Saturday. Though our forecast consists of near areawide PoPs, the highest chance of showers/storms will be in the southern half of the CWA. Afternoon highs are expected to range from upper 80s / low 90s in the coastal counties to mid 90s inland.

Ridging is expected to build over the region beyond the weekend, suggesting a decreasing trend in the PoPs with hotter temperatures. However, we are skeptical that ridging will be strong enough to completely suppress diurnal convective activity (offshore showers/storms at night/morning , afternoon showers/storms inland). So we've kept a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through much of the upcoming week, especially in our southern and coastal counties that experience the sea breeze. Temperatures will continue to be in the 90s with high humidity. So summer rages on in typical SE Texas summer fashion.

Self

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Iso-sct showers and storms will continue to develop through this evening and affect most SE Texas sites from time to time. Expect brief periods of heavy rain, frequent lightning, and VRB and gusty winds of 20-25 kts in and around stronger storms. Chance of showers and storms will decrease this evening and winds will relax to 5 knots or less after 00Z. A few showers over GLS/LBX will be possible during the overnight hours. By around sunrise, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move/develop over the coastal counties with some storms potentially reaching HOU/IAH/SGR region by the late morning hours. PROB30s are in place for that timeframe, and will likely become a TEMPO as confidence of timing/location of storms increases.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 103 PM CDT Thu Sep 10 2026

Scattered shower and thunderstorm activity should linger through the early afternoon hours before tapering. Another round of scattered showers and storms is expected late overnight into Friday morning. Once again, a few storms could produce wind gusts over 30 knots and a waterspout. Expect light to occasionally moderate onshore winds, 2 to 3 foot Gulf seas, and a daily risk of showers and thunderstorms through the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 96 76 98 / 0 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 77 93 78 94 / 10 50 10 60 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 83 91 / 30 60 40 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.