textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Closely monitoring weather for the the Independence Day with increased heat stress expected.

- Hot Weather continues with peak heat index values reaching 100- 107F (38-42C).

- Daily rain chances. Light streamer showers possible in the morning, then scatters/isolated storms during the afternoon.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

The larger synoptic pattern remains consistent with little change in the position of the stout ridge across the eastern U.S. The 00z Canadian analyzed a broad region of 597dm across the eastern Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Closer to home, we saw isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms yesterday afternoon, some of which were strong. Current conditions show mostly clear skies and light winds across the region.

The weak impulse that brought scattered showers and thunderstorms to our region yesterday has moved inland. MIMIC-TPW has shown that Precipitable Water has decreased across our area with the richer moisture moving off to the northeast. This will help keep showers and thunderstorms isolated over the next couple of days. As we head into Sunday and Monday, model guidance begins to show the stout ridge breakdown over the eastern U.S. As a new ridge begins to build to our west, a southeasterly moving mid-level impulse across north Texas may help trigger showers and storms each afternoon.

Heat continues to be the story for the region with additional hot days expected through the weekend. Only minor adjustments were made with this forecast package. The previous couple of days have seen us mix relatively efficiently, keeping dewpoints a touch lower than forecasted. The previous package introduced slightly lower dewpoints for today and on the Fourth of July, which was maintained with this forecast package. This lowers RH values slightly, which will keep maximum apparent temperatures from exceeding 107F (42C). We will continue to see heat indices between the 100-107F (38-42C) range through the weekend and into next week. This remains below Heat Advisory criteria. That said, necessary heat precautions still need to be carried out, including frequent hydration and breaks from the heat with shade/AC. We will continue to monitor the potential for a Heat Advisory over the coming days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 600 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Very little change with this aviation update. GOES nighttime microphysics imagery reveals low level stratus off to our west. MVFR ceilings have struggled to develop across southeast Texas this morning. However, will maintain a TEMPO group for the next couple of hours for our more inland locations as they are most likely to experience MVFR conditions. A few streamer showers may move inland over the next couple of hours, mainly at GLS/LBX. Sea-breeze activity does not look too impressive today with the greatest chances for TSRA closer to the coast. If any activity makes it a bit further inland, we will make adjustments to the TAFs as needed.

Looking at tonight, will maintain VFR conditions for all sites. The latest HREF probs hint at MVFR ceilings develop again. However, will lean towards persistence with this update as they have struggled to develop this morning. If any low level ceilings develop, would expect them to be brief.

MARINE

Issued at 1225 AM CDT Fri Jul 3 2026

Light S/SE winds around 10 knots and calm seas of 1 to 3 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Light streamer showers could develop over the Gulf waters each morning. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms could develop along the sea breeze in the afternoon near the coastline and bays.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 95 77 96 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 96 78 96 78 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 90 82 90 82 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.