textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

- Isolated rain chances now through the weekend. Cannot rule out some stronger or severe storms on these days either. '

- Front stalls out before reaching SE Texas around Monday with daily rain chances through mid next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Today should generally see lower coverage in showers/storms due to rising heights within this semi-zonal flow pattern aloft. Better instability and shear may be present, but the distinct lack of forcing should keep convective activity isolated in nature. Still, severe storms cannot be completely ruled out for this afternoon, especially with how storms overperformed on Wednesday. Worth keeping an eye on the radar in case any stronger storms manage to pull together. Otherwise, anticipate warming conditions with highs in the mid/lower 80 and lows in the upper 60s/lower 70s.

Still monitoring a period of potentially active weather from Friday over the weekend. SE Texas will be under mostly zonal flow with ample shear and instability in place across the region. For SE Texas specifically, models show SFC CAPE from around 1700-3000 J/KG with 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several troughs/disturbances are expected to pass to the north of our area around this time, thus much of the best lift and forcing will keep north of our area as well. SPC still maintains a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather up against our northern boarder on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. While it's not directly in our CWA for all of these days, any southerly shift in those shortwaves/impulses may result in this risk shifting into our area. Given the troublesome nature of these northwest flow patterns, the severe risk is still in play for SE Texas on these days too.

On Monday, a much more robust shortwave trough is anticipated to fill north across the Plains. This feature will send a cold front towards SE Texas, though ultimately it doesn't appear as though it'll get here, slowing/stalling around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area per long range ensemble guidance. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, allowing low rain chances and warmer weather to continue.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 732 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Lingering thunderstorms should taper off in the evening with MVFR-IFR CIGS filling in overnight into early Thursday morning. Cannot completely rule out some pockets of LIFR, especially for any locations that got rainfall today. CIGs should clear out Thursday morning with gusty winds setting in during the afternoon. MVFR CIGs should fill in over the area again Thursday night.

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MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end of the work week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 79 66 84 69 / 60 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 68 84 71 / 80 20 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 79 72 80 74 / 70 20 20 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.