textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Abnormally low water levels during low tide in Galveston Bay will continue through Monday night with levels moderating closer to normal by mid-week. Continued low water is likely due to the very low astronomical tides occurring.

- Patchy to areas of fog possible nightly beginning tonight through midweek.

- Warming trend begins on Monday with temperatures back into the 80s by midweek. Cold front on Friday ushers in cooler weather next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Sorry, cold weather fans...warm weather fans rejoice because another warming trend kicks off the week as southeasterly winds return. Winds will have a southerly component through the majority of the week, bringing in warm moist air and sending temperatures into the upper 70s to low 80s through Thursday.

An upper level low will approach the area late in the week, with a cold front swinging through sometime late Thursday into Friday. Ensembles have a bit of a variance between how much moisture will be available ahead of the front. ECMWF has PWAT values around average for this time of year, while NAEFS has PWAT values in the 90th percentile. In either case, this could be the next shot at rain for Southeast Texas. As far as convection is concerned, models don't seem too excited for that potential with a pretty hefty cap in place as the front rolls through. Behind the front, northerly winds will develop and bring in another round of cold air for the region. This will, of course, result in a drop in daytime/nighttime temperatures. While I don't want to get too hung up on exact details this far out, it doesn't look like too drastic of a drop in temperatures. In fact, at this point in time the cool air behind the front will drop temperatures to around average for this time of year.

Bailey

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 538 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

VFR conditions and SE winds at 5-10 KTS through early tonight. Winds will relax to 5 KTS or less overnight and cigs will lower down to IFR-MVFR. Vis could also lower to similar minimums over most sites as fog develops over the region. By around 15Z, winds will increase to 5-10 KTS, fog will gradually burn off, and cigs will lift and scatter out during the afternoon to evening hours. Similar conditions are expected Mon night into early Tue morning.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 120 PM CST Sun Jan 4 2026

Southeasterly winds have developed this afternoon. Light onshore winds and low seas will then prevail through at least midweek. The onshore winds will bring a chance of patchy sea fog nightly beginning Sunday night. The chance of fog midweek will be conditional as warming SSTs should limit the fog potential.

Abnormally low water levels during low tide will continue on Monday with water levels getting down to around -1.0ft MLLW at low tide in Galveston Bay. Low tides will continue to remain on the lower side going into the work week, but will be less significant thanks to decreasing astronomical tides and onshore winds (-0.8ft MLLW on Monday, -0.5ft MLLW on Tuesday, near 0.0ft MLLw on Wednesday, etc.).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 48 75 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 51 76 63 82 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 70 63 72 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until midnight CST Monday night for GMZ335.