textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week with additional low water advisories possible.

- Dry cold front pushes through Friday afternoon, leading to near- critical fire weather conditions during the daytime on Saturday.

- Closely monitoring the potential for some light flurries Saturday night.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before another cold front Monday/Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Quiet weather continues this afternoon as surface high pressure passes over the area today. Winds will become light and variable later this afternoon before shifting southeasterly this evening. Because this onshore flow is slated to return after peak heating, highs should still be fairly cool, topping out in the 50s/lower 60s. After onshore flow is resumes this evening, we'll see moisture slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of cooling. Lows for Friday morning should be slightly warmer, though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with some lower 50s along the coast.

Friday will see another mid/upper level trough dig through the North- Central Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This trough should send another cold front towards SE Texas, which will enter the Brazos Valley during the afternoon then push off the coast in the evening (by midnight at the latest). PWs will still be low, forecasted to be around 0.75" or less, thus rain appears unlikely with this FROPA as well. Highs during the daytime should top out in the 60s/mid 70s. Breezy and cooler conditions fill in overnight with lows for Saturday morning ranging from the mid 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast.

Saturday has seen some interesting pattern changes emerge, making the forecast more complex. We're still anticipating mostly post- frontal weather as high pressure treks eastward through the Plains. Highs are still anticipated to reach the 50s/lower 60s with afternoon RH dropping to 20-30 percent. Winds remain fairly elevated inland during the daytime, around 10-15 mph, raising some fire weather concerns that will need to be monitored closely. Fuels are also fairly dry, below 25th percentile in many spots for both the 10hr and 100hr fuels.

Overnight temperatures have trended downward with lows for Sunday morning in the mid 20s/lower 40s. Much more robust temperature drop than prior days, nearly at hard-freeze conditions for our northernmost counties. In addition, the mid/upper level trough appears much more elongated with significantly stronger forcing over SE Texas. Model guidance suggests the potential for some 850mb-700mb frontogenesis leading ahead of this trough. As already mentioned, conditions during the daytime will be well-above freezing with very dry surface conditions, nearly a 20-40 degree dewpoint depression. While wet bulb profiles do stay under the freezing mark, guidance indicates that much of the area will have a substantial warm-nose of 2.5-3C around 800mb, nearly 3000-4000ft in depth. As we head into the overnight hours, this warm nose should erode with the dewpoint depression set to decrease. DGZ is still dry and far from optimal, though some models are suggesting at least some moisture lingering aloft in the wake of the FROPA, enough to perhaps produce some weak precipitation. There is indeed a non-zero chance of some frozen (but non-accumulating) precipitation to develop in some capacity on Saturday, especially during this evening-overnight period, perhaps as flurries... though I'm not confident enough to lock that into the forecast just yet. We'll have a better idea of how this scenario may unfold once CAMs get in range of this time frame.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return early in the evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach the mid 50s/lower 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s.

The brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday, as long range models continue to suggest that a mid/upper level low will dig across the Great Lakes/Ontario/Quebec on Monday. This should send yet another cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still a bit uncertain with model differences still fairly pronounced at day 5. Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday afternoon/late evening. Models are suggesting that this front will stall out somewhere over the area (either across the northern zones of our CWA or somewhere along the coast/Gulf) on Tuesday. Onshore flow is currently anticipated to strengthen overnight into Wednesday morning, funneling deeper moisture and PWs of 0.9-1.6" into the area. GFS shows a midlevel shortwave passing over SE Texas on Wednesday with other long-range guidance broadly leaning towards wetter conditions throughout the day.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 AM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming variable through the day.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 PM CST Thu Jan 15 2026

Matagorda Pilots have reported waters levels to nearly -3.0ft MLLW at Port Lavaca with exceptionally low water levels across Matagorda bay. Current Low Water Advisory may be extended this evening... possibly into Friday morning if conditions do not improve. Mariners should continue to remain mindful of these negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern half of the the bays. Winds and seas should decrease and shift southeasterly as high pressure passes over the area this afternoon. Another cold front is slated to push off the coast Friday night. Moderate to strong northeasterly winds will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories through Saturday into early Sunday. There is a chance of some light precipitation on Saturday. Onshore winds return Sunday night.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 69 39 52 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 73 45 54 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 69 51 58 / 0 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.