textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk with "feels-like" temperatures around 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) through this weekend.

- High Risk of Rip Currents this weekend, likely continuing into portions of next week. Minor coastal flooding possible at high tide on Sunday.

- Risk of heavy rainfall and flash flooding Sunday night through late Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Subtropical ridging aloft should keep hot weather over SE Texas for the first half of the weekend. Heights within the midlevel ridge remain around 591-593 dam, within the 84-95th climatological percentile for this time of the year. Subsidence will still greatly limit the potency of any convection, keeping them mostly as light showers with only brief storms. Most of these showers/storms are expected during the early morning and afternoon hours. Highs are forecasted to reach the upper 80s to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with lows in the 70s to lower 80s (21-27 Celsius). Afternoon dewpoints are still anticipated to remain in the 70s (20-26 Celsius) each day. As a result, heat indices and "feels-like" temperatures are forecasted to reach 97-107 degrees (36-42 Celsius) over these next few days. WBGT heat stress is forecasted to be high, though some hot spots could see isolated pockets of Extreme heat stress during portions of the afternoon. Sensitive groups or those not acclimated to the summer weather of Houston will be especially at risk of experiencing heat illness. If you plan to spend time outdoors, make sure to drink plenty of water to stay hydrated.

If you have any beach plans this weekend, make sure to watch out for rip currents. Swim near a lifeguard, if possible, and be sure to avoid swimming near any rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents frequently occur. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible along the coastline at high tide on Sunday.

Hot weather will continue into Sunday as the ridge and above-normal heights remain overhead for just a tad longer. Models still have midlevel heights around 591-592 dam overtop the area with onshore winds still progged to bring robust moisture & WAA during the daytime. This surging moisture from the Gulf will help enable scattered showers/storm development during the early morning and afternoon hours, similar though greater than what we've observed these last several days. For areas that miss out on rainfall, highs should still reach the upper 80s/lower 90s temps with heat indices in the triple digits.

Heading into Sunday night, a mid/upper level trough & several additional disturbances will dig across the Plains, forcing the ridge southward and thus reducing heights over SE Texas. A cold front associated with this trough will push south towards SE Texas. PWs are progged to surge to 2.0-2.4 inches ahead of the front from a weak disturbance pushing north up long the TX/Mex coast. Forecast soundings ahead of the front early on Monday still show the typical signals for heavier rainfall (saturated conditions, skinny CAPE profiles, and a deep warm cloud layer). Model guidance shows the cold front stalling out over SE Texas. Too early to say where specifically, but wherever it does stall, it'll focus convection and amplify showers/storms along the boundary. ECMWF EFI values for QPF are still in the range of around 0.6-0.9 with SoT values almost near 1. Overall the signals for heavier rainfall are there, though there is still uncertainty as to where/when the front will stall precisely, which will greatly impact where the highest rainfall amounts occur. WPC has SE Texas under a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall Sunday night, increasing to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) overnight into Monday as the front pushes into SE Texas. The heavy rainfall threat decreases to a Marginal Risk on Tuesday, diminishing into Wednesday as the frontal boundary lifts north. Rainfall totals late Sunday through Tuesday are forecasted to range from around 1-3 inches though higher amounts to around 5 inches cannot be ruled out. Soil moisture remains low, though heavy rains over a short period could still result in flash flooding, especially if this rainfall occurs over urban/low lying areas.

Daily rain chances continue Wednesday through the end of the work week. Temperatures will also be on the rise once again as ridging builds over the Gulf. Hot weather and heat indicies in the triple digits are poised to return as well, so continue practicing heat safety!

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 627 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

A few terminals are currently experiencing some patchy fog but that will generally be isolated and brief. Otherwise ceilings will generally be a mixture of VFR to MVFR, with general improvement during the day and then lowering ceilings again tonight. Winds will be around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots, especially for terminals closer to the coast. Showers and storms will generally be isolated so left out mentions of PROB30s/TEMPOs but if a terminal is impacted it may see visibility and ceiling reductions as well as variable gusty winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Sat Jun 13 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected this weekend. Caution flags may be warranted at times, especially this evening as winds and seas approach advisory levels. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day, increasing Sunday into early next week. A high risk of rip currents is anticipated almost daily for the foreseeable future. Minor coastal flooding will also be possible at high tide on Sunday.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 95 78 93 75 / 20 0 60 80 Houston (IAH) 92 79 92 78 / 20 10 70 60 Galveston (GLS) 89 83 89 82 / 20 10 30 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

Coastal Flood Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.