textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week.

- Strong rip currents possible along Gulf-facing beaches this week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Daily rain chances continue through the long-term period as moisture availability continues to increase in response to the return of onshore flow. Thursday's rain chances will be further aided by a developing coastal trough. Best chances for rainfall lie west of I- 45 where moisture is more focused. Not seeing as strong of a signal for morning activity. HREF shows more isolated to scattered activity popping up in early afternoon (likely due to daytime heating).

As for Friday, an embedded shortwave trough will contribute to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. 500 mb heights still look to increase through the day, leading to some subsidence; however, also seeing some 500 mb pulses of energy riding along and south of I-10 across the Coastal Plains. That being said, expect showers to win the battle against subsidence for portions of southeast Texas (likely south of I-10).

Ridging is expected to move off to the east for Saturday, providing a shot at precipitation for areas further west of I-45. Lower end chances expected elsewhere. An LLJ and corresponding jet streak may provide further lift, and with the available moisture, may see some of these showers and storms produce locally heavy rainfall. As a result, WPC has placed the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods in a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for Sunday.

As the ridge moves east, an upper-level low will push into the Plains from the Pacific NW early next week. As it does, a dryline is expected to set up in western Texas. Furthermore, a surface low is expected to develop on the lee side of the Rocky Mountains. This will position southeast Texas in the warm sector of the surface low. All that to say...we have plenty of moisture and instability and a nearby mid-level jet, so looking at the potential for some strong to severe thunderstorms early next week. SPC has already placed portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney woods in a 15% chance of severe weather for Tuesday (and with it being pretty far out, I suspect that probability will change and the area will shift). In any case, as we get into next week, it is important to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 542 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

MVFR CIGs/cloud decks encompass most of SE Texas early today, with some pockets of fog/lower cigs resulting in IFR-LIFR FLs at locations such as KCXO. Expect CIGs/fog to lift and clear after sunrise with VFR returning area-wide by the late morning/early afternoon. Showers and storms are possible during the daytime, though chances and coverage are too low to warrant mention for today. Another round of MVFR CIGs with pockets of fog are anticipated again overnight into Friday. Scattered showers/storms will be possible across the region on Friday.

03

MARINE

Issued at 117 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds occurring tonight. Small Craft should exercise caution through Friday morning. Another result of the increased onshore flow is the increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches towards the end of the work week and going into the weekend. Expect wave heights to increase as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east- southeasterly winds stretching to the eastern Gulf brings a swell of elevated seas. Seas expected to peak in the 4-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak late Thursday into Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 82 65 80 66 / 20 10 60 20 Houston (IAH) 82 68 80 68 / 20 20 70 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 70 76 71 / 20 30 70 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Friday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.