textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch trimmed back to include just coastal counties.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible the next few days, but risk of widespread, significant impacts is lowering.

- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend. Better storm chances should be transitioning into the Gulf, but still close enough to the coast to keep abreast of the weather before venturing out on the water.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

GOES Total PW satellite imagery shows some lower PW air making its way into the region from the west. Skies have partially cleared across parts of the area and considering light winds & damp ground, we should see some party fog development by morning.

Went ahead and canceled the Flood Watch for all but the coastal counties. Rain chances are not eliminated but overall coverage and intensity should be lower as the weakening mid-upper trof axis pushes into East Texas today. There will still be some vorticity streaming around its southern and eastern periphery which could interact with the lingering 1.5-1.7" PW air generally along & south of I-10 and east of I-45 which could trigger some additional precipitation. But with the high rain amounts coastal locations have seen the past several days, I'm hesitant to pull the watch just yet until potential surprises are minimized. Hires guidance suggests a diffuse llvl boundary that'll be sagging off the coast this morning will be the main focus, it's a bit too close for comfort attm. The dayshift may be able to cancel it if this ends up being true.

Tuesday, this trof/weakness lifts north. But eyes then will be focused to the west again as yet another shortwave trof begins approaching the region. Guidance is in pretty good agreement showing another complex of storms pushing across southeast Texas Tuesday night and Wed. We'll begin focusing on the finer details with this one in the coming days. It looks somewhat progressive, but it should have 2" PW's to work with and some upper level diffluence (suggesting the potential for training or regenerating storms). Deterministic & AI data preliminarly suggesting another 1-4" possible across the southern 2/3 of the region. With wet grounds in place, flash flood guidance will probably be a bit lower than normal, esp for those that've seen the highest totals the past several days.

Beyond that, we should see some subtle ridging for the rest of the work week/weekend - but probably not quite enough to suppress some isolated to scattered diurnally driven activity. 47

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 PM CDT Sat May 23 2026

SHRA/TSRA continues across the area as of 00z. A cluster of nearly stationary thunderstorms has developed in the past hour around KCLL and look to remain through 01-02z, though they may continue past that. The SHRA is just about east of all TAF sites, though a few remnant light showers may remain through 03z, mainly for KUTS and KCXO. MVFR cigs and possibly visibility remain throughout the night for most terminals as the saturated soils and light winds should allow for misty/foggy conditions, mainly through 12-15z. Precipitation coverage looks to be much less during the afternoon tomorrow, with moderate confidence that any SHRA/TSRA forms offshore. However, there still remains the chance for diurnally driven thunderstorms, and the best chances for those remain at terminals along and south of I-10. PROB30s continue for this at those terminals, with PROB30 SHRA at KIAH. Precipitation does not look to reach much further north than KIAH tomorrow. There is low to moderate confidence of a cold front pushing through by 00z Monday, which would bring a west to northwest wind component to the area. However, confidence is not high enough to place in TAFs at this time.

MARINE

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Have the caution flags flying for a bit longer with the moderate east and southeast winds in the coastal waters, but they'll likely begin diminishing and becoming more northeasterly toward morning as a weak boundary pushes off the coast. This boundary will serve as a focus for additional shower and thunderstorm development this morning and afternoon. Though the bulk of stronger precipitation should be situated in the Gulf, mariners in the bays should still be cognizant of the possibility of some scattered storms closer to the coast. Winds will eventually return to a more southeast direction early in the week and increase in speed. The next potentially moderate disturbance and associated storm complex is expected to reach the upper Texas coast from the west Tuesday night or Wednesday. 47

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1249 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Rivers/bayous are behaving themselves. There's a few that have risen into action stage (San Bernard, Tres Palacios, Lavaca), but all are currently anticipated to remain below flood stage at this time. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 68 86 68 / 20 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 84 71 87 72 / 20 20 30 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 75 85 77 / 50 30 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Monday evening for TXZ214-235>238-335>338- 436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 AM CDT early this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.