textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous winds and seas are developing across the coastal waters tonight, and are expected to carry into early tomorrow morning before diminishing.

- Seasonably cool conditions are expected Friday. Humidity will also be low for the day.

- Beyond Friday, expect a long stretch of warmer than normal conditions through the weekend and deep into next week. Through this period, we will find temperatures closer to record values than to normals.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

All area observations are showing increasing north winds late this evening, and satellite confirms that the day's cold front has now pushed well out over the open Gulf, and is no longer any of our concern. Tonight looks to be fairly gusty, particularly over the low friction surface of the Gulf (more on that in the marine section below). This will usher in a much cooler and drier airmass that will bring us all the way down to... *checks notes* ...right around seasonal averages for Friday. Ultimately, the upper trough supporting the front was enough to push a fairly vigorous front through our area, but hasn't really dug deep enough to push an arctic cold pool into the Southern Plains, so we'll be noticeably cooler, but not egregiously cold.

Another consequence of this is that this bit of colder, drier conditions will be quite short-lived. Winter and cold lovers, savor what you can tomorrow, because that's probably about all you're going to get. Winds Friday are expected to wind down pretty quickly through the morning, begin to veer, and by evening we should have light onshore flow in place. This will start to push out whatever amount of cooler airmass did manage to get in on Friday, and set us up for a return to warmer, more humid conditions into the weekend.

This will be bolstered by ridging aloft building in pretty strongly. If you squint a little and don't pay too much attention to the values of the geopotential heights at various pressure levels, it isn't that different from a summery look to the upper air pattern. Fortunately, those geopotential heights do matter. While definitely a pattern that supports above-average warmth, we're only going to get so hot, especially with the lowest solar angles of the year near the winter solstice. One thing of note is that with a strong surface high shoving into the eastern US, we might see a bit of a weak backdoor cold front try to wiggle in from the east. Will it be particularly effective? No, not really...but it might tamp down the heat a scoch east of the Houston metro, and I do even have some slight chance PoPs in place given the increasing humidity on Sunday and early Monday.

Through this warmer stretch, confidence is quite high for above average warmth, given the setup. 10th percentile NBM highs don't get any lower than the upper 60s and 70s anywhere in SE Texas, which is already 10ish degrees above average. Both the deterministic and median NBM highs are in the upper half of the 70s to around 80 degrees. At this peak of the NBM's probabilistic distribution, records are probably still safe, but we're getting uncomfortably close. But there would be more of a threat if we end up in the upper half of the distribution, particularly towards the 90th and 95th percentile. This is more of a hottest case scenario, so not as likely...but still plausible.

Finally, with the more humid conditions, we will find ourselves back considering the potential for the overnight/early morning development of fog this weekend into early next week. For those who still have a morning commute next week (it's me - I'll have a morning commute next week), it'll be worth that extra check of the weather before you head out the door. If you're on a holiday break, then take it easy and sleep in!

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 517 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

VFR today. Winds will be light and VRB this morning, becoming S-SE at 5-10kts this afternoon. Similar conditions expected Fri night into early Sat morning, although some locations may see some sct MVFR cigs around sunrise timeframe.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1201 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

A cold front has crossed the coastal waters, with north to northeast winds building in its wake. At 11pm, winds were generally in the range for small craft to exercise caution, but winds above the Small Craft Advisory threshold are beginning to emerge on Gulf waters. Although Galveston Bay is not included in the Small Craft Advisory, it is worth mentioning that areas around the bay entrance are likely to briefly reach the advisory threshold tonight.

Conditions should improve fairly rapidly through Friday morning, with winds diminishing after sunrise and through the rest of the day. Those winds will also be veering back to being onshore by evening. Because of this, the potential for overnight and morning fog will need to be monitored for this weekend and early next week. This is not a slam dunk sea fog setup, fortunately, but the warm, humid conditions and persistent onshore flow will at least make for some chance most every night. There is some hope that it will be somewhat self-limiting. With several days of above average temperatures, the shallow waters of the bays and nearshore waters should warm, and if they do so effectively, will eventually become warm enough to put a gradual, uneven end to sea fog potential. At least until the next strong cold front chills those waters down again.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 46 78 61 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 48 78 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 56 71 64 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-350- 355-370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 AM CST this morning for GMZ335.