textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, drier conditions will prevail for Wednesday and Thursday with the passage of a cold front Tuesday evening. Expect temperatures near or very slightly below seasonal averages.

- Gusty north winds developing behind the front will generate conditions hazardous to small craft on coastal Gulf waters Wednesday.

- Warmer than normal temperatures return Friday, and carry through the first half of next week with highs rising into the 70s and lows drifting upward into the 50s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

After a more exciting than desired afternoon, particularly in the northeastern part of the Houston metro, things are beginning to calm as the evening's cold front is pushing offshore. The last portions of the line of showers and embedded thunderstorms are still making their way through Jackson, Matagorda, and southwestern Brazoria counties, while some fog and low clouds linger just behind the front, and that will be the main issue at the coast for the late night hours.

But ultimately, our future across the area will be like the obs in our far north at Crockett and College Station. Exiting cloud deck (CLL is on the back edge at midnight, DKR is already clear) and strengthening north winds 10-15 mph with gusts around or just over 20 mph. These northerlies will filter in some modestly colder air, but nothing like our recent cold stretch. With 850 temps only coming down to around freezing, it should get chilly but seasonably so - near or just a little below average for early February. Folks way up north in Houston and Madison counties may see a low right down at the freezing mark just before dawn Thursday, but elsewhere across the area, the coldest we look to get Wednesday night/Thursday morning should be in the 30s to right around 40 in Houston's heat island and at the coast.

Thursday morning's lows should be the coldest point of the forecast period as ridging aloft starts building in, and will stay in place until the very end of the forecast period (Yes, it changes immediately after that, but please leave me something to talk about tomorrow night). With ridging in place, look for a warming trend to take hold from Friday through the weekend and into the early half of next week. I largely hold with the NBM, perhaps with slight hedges warm, but we may have to begin to evaluate the need for going warmer. Looking at the Euro Ensemble's Extreme Forecast Index, some signals for high-end temperatures are beginning to emerge. On Saturday through Tuesday, EFIs above 0.5 for max and min temps begin to emerge in portions of Southeast Texas. This is not a very strong signal for high-end temps, but it is certainly suggestive. This will be a trend to watch in the days to come.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 408 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

Northerly winds of 10-15 knots with gusts up to around 26 knots can be expected during the daytime, relaxing this evening. Clear skies and VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

03

MARINE

Issued at 127 AM CST Wed Feb 4 2026

A cold front is in the process of pushing off the coast, and will make its way over the Gulf waters through the night. Showers and thunderstorms are occurring along the front, and will be capable of generating locally higher winds and seas in and near where storms are occurring. A brief period of fog may also be seen on the bays immediately after rain moves out, but should dissipate quickly as north winds develop shortly after the front passes. Those north winds will strengthen and become gusty Wednesday into Thursday. Expect periods of hazardous winds and seas, especially over the Gulf for small craft. Winds become lighter and more westerly on Friday and Saturday, before shifting to be more southerly on Sunday.

At the coast, with gusty offshore winds developing, we'll also need to be on the lookout for low water levels at times of low tide. While some negative tides should be expected, guidance suggests that we may come close...but not exceed the threshold for a low water advisory in Galveston Bay at low tide Wednesday evening. However, should future data indicate that water levels will go any lower, a quick advisory may be needed.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 62 36 65 42 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 40 62 45 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 60 46 58 51 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.