textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold temperatures tonight into Tuesday morning with a light freeze expected in portions of the Piney Woods.

- Warming trend through midweek is briefly halted by a weak cold front on late Wednesday/early Thursday, but expect temperatures to approach 80F on Friday.

- Chances for showers/storms return going into the weekend.

- We continue to monitor the potential for another cold front towards the end of the week, but uncertainty remains.

UPDATE

Issued at 1259 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

The latest PETSS guidance now reflects water levels in Galveston Bay dropping to near or below -1.0 ft MLLW during low tide this afternoon prompting the issuance of a Low Water Advisory that is in effect through 9 PM CST this evening.

Batiste

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Following Sunday's cold front, it feels like December once again as temperatures dropped into the 30s/40s areawide. Locations across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods also received some patchy frost on vehicles and roof tops. That's the true winter-like experience...or at least as close as we'll get to that anytime soon. With CAA prevailing throughout the day, we'll only top out in the upper 50s to low 60s. Drier air will continue to funnel leading to the decrease of cloud cover throughout the day. Clear skies will prevail going into tonight as winds become light with surface high pressure moving in overhead. This brings us to my favorite formula this time of the year! Clear skies + light winds + dry air (widespread dew points in the 30s) = max radiational cooling. So, tonight into Tuesday morning will be the coldest period of the forecast period with low temperatures ranging from the low 30s to low 40s. Portions of the Piney Woods will likely experience a brief, light freeze as well. Additionally, areas north of I-10 may see another round of patchy frost on rooftops and vehicles left outdoors, so be sure to take that into account for your Tuesday morning commute.

Onshore flow returns by Tuesday afternoon leading to a warming trend that takes us into the end of the work week. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the low to mid 60s and then we peak into the 70s Wednesday through Friday. There will be a brief halt to the warming trend as a weak cold front pushes into the area (but likely not all the way through) on late Wednesday/early Thursday. This will reinforce drier air for most of the area and keep widespread low temperatures in the 40s for another night (Wednesday night). That front pushes back to the north as a warm front on Thursday, which reignites our warming trend. High temperatures on Friday will be well above normal with widespread temperatures in the upper 70s. Isolated instances of spots reaching the 80F mark can't be entirely ruled out. This would put us in near record territory, but we'd need to tack on a few more degrees to actually challenge record highs on Friday.

Chances for showers and storms return going into the weekend as a surface trough develops near the coast and pairs with passing shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft. Rain chances will be mainly relegated to locations along the coast and south of I-10. Speaking of the weekend, there is quite a bit of social media buzz about another round of cold temperatures. While this may be true for portions of the eastern CONUS, let's discuss this potential for specifically Southeast TX. It's important to note that there is a lot of uncertainty with this next cold front. For instance, majority of the latest deterministic guidance doesn't bring a front through here at all this weekend. That's just one model run though, so let's take a look at ensemble guidance to see if there's any confidence in one solution over another.

Ensemble members in the GEFS have more solutions reflecting below normal temperatures versus above normal. It's the complete opposite for the ECMWF ensemble with the vast majority of its members reflecting above normal temperatures. The NBM reflects uncertainty as well with a 15-20+ degree difference between the upper and lower quartiles for max/min temperatures over the weekend. A large interquartile range is indicative of a wide range in model output, which is just a fancy way of saying that there's a lot of uncertainty. Upper level synoptic flow has the main jet stream staying well to our northeast through the weekend. There is a bit more of an amplified trough in the deterministic GFS, which is why the front pushes through in that solution late in the weekend. Even then, the bulk of the colder air stays well to our north and east. All that to say, don't place all of your stock into one model solution...especially when it's 5+ days out.

Batiste

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1154 AM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

VFR conditions prevail this afternoon and continue through the period. Winds will be light out of the north, becoming light and variable overnight.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1245 PM CST Mon Dec 8 2025

Winds and seas will continue to subside throughout the day, but small craft should continue to exercise caution in the offshore Gulf waters through the afternoon as sustained winds will persist in the 15-20 kt range. A lingering effect of these northerly winds and the moon phase will lead to abnormally low water levels during low tide this afternoon in both of the bays. The latest PETSS guidance shows water levels reaching the -0.8 to -0.4 ft MLLW. Northeasterly winds will prevail into Tuesday, then become southeasterly by Tuesday afternoon. Winds become southwesterly going into midweek as a weak frontal boundary pushes into the region. Additionally, there is potential for another round of patchy fog around midweek.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 34 64 46 72 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 64 48 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 61 56 71 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 9 PM CST this evening for GMZ335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ370-375.