textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Potential for near record temperatures again Friday for locations around the Houston metro and along the coast.

- Scattered storms overnight for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods with locally heavy rainfall possible. Showers and isolated storms possible farther south on Friday & Saturday.

- Another system is expected to bring shower and thunderstorm activity Monday into Tuesday.

- Monitoring the potential for a stronger cold front around the middle of next week bringing cooler temperatures in time for Thanksgiving.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

We had yet another day of near record to record breaking high temperatures on Thursday as both the City of Houston (Bush Intercontinental Airport) and Houston/Hobby Airport set new records with high temperatures in the mid 80s. For those keeping track, this is the 7th day in a row with at least one location setting a new record...and we might make it 8 days in a row on Friday. Before we get to that though, there is a line of showers/storms currently pushing through portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. Rainfall rates haven't been that impressive in our area as of yet, but locally heavy rainfall remains possible in any of the stronger storms that manages to hold together. PW values remain well above the 90th percentile. Based on the 00Z CAMs, this appears to be most likely across Houston County (not the city) later tonight. These storms are due to a passing shortwave from a negatively tilted mid- level trough located just east of the Rockies. These storms are occuring in advance of an approaching weak cold front that will begin pushing into Southeast Texas late Friday. This frontal boundary will get the full Houston experience and get in stuck in traffic as it slowly makes its way down I-45.

The slow moving frontal boundary will be the focus of where the best rain chances are for Friday and Saturday. During the daytime on Friday, rain chances will be higher along and north of I-10 and we'll have the opposite on Friday night into Saturday morning. PW values remain near or above the 90th percentile along the front, so locally heavy rainfall cannot be ruled out in any of the heavier downpours. The main question for the weekend forecast is WHEN will the frontal boundary push offshore. Some of the latest model guidance, including the latest 00Z CAM guidance, pushes the frontal boundary off the coast by Saturday morning. In this scenario, rain chances for Saturday would be drastically lower behind the front. I leaned towards the CAM guidance (totally not biased since I'm also Cam), which brings rain chances to an end by Saturday afternoon.

Wherever the front happens to be on Sunday, it'll push back northward as a warm front as we move into a brief period of ridging in advance of the next approaching upper level low. The next round of heavy rain looks to be Monday into Tuesday as another frontal boundary pushes into the region. This looks to be a fairly similar setup to what's happening this weekend, but with Southeast TX getting some time in the warm sector there is a slightly better chance to see some stronger storms this time around. PW values remain well above the 90th percentile, so we are already monitoring the potential for locally heavy rainfall again. As of Thursday night, WPC has outlined portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall for late Sunday. Portions of the Piney Woods are in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Monday with the remainder of Southeast TX in a marginal risk. The main window for heavy rainfall and strong storms looks to be late Monday into early Tuesday. It's a bit too early to nail down the exact parameters for potential severe storms, but the chances definitely are not zero. Uncertainty remains on exactly where the front will stall at, but it's expected to linger nearby the coast into midweek before a stronger cold front pushes through.

Temperatures behind the front look to drop down to below average with highs generally in the 60s with lows in the 40s/50s (maybe some upper 30s up north as well). Ensemble means for both the GEFS and Euro are in agreement with what we have in the forecast for Thanksgiving Day, which is what's in that previous sentence. As far as rain chances go for Thanksgiving Day, it's looking dry. NBM probabilities for 12 hour rainfall over 0.01" is 10% or less for Thursday into Friday morning. Thankfully, we aren't expecting any fowl weather, but rather a dry and cool Thanksgiving. You might be thinking, is he really going to stuff in Thanksgiving puns right at the end to treat those that read this far?! Of course! I haven't gone cold turkey just yet...

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

A mix of IFR to VFR currently over Southeast TX along with light S-SE winds. Some sites currently have reduced visibilities due to fog, and is expected to burn off by 14-15Z. Low ceilings will gradually lift during the morning hours and could scatter out during the afternoon to evening hours, before lowering again late tonight. With respect to weather, some showers will continue to move across the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region this morning, then we should see showers and storms expanding southward throughout the day as a weak cold front slowly moves into the region. Winds are expected to become N-NW in the wake of the front.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1130 PM CST Thu Nov 20 2025

Light to moderate onshore flow will continue through the end of the work week before an approaching weak frontal boundary transitions winds to an easterly direction on Saturday into Sunday. Seas will remain generally in the 2-4 ft range through the weekend. Chances for showers will continue tonight into Friday, then comes chances for showers and storms on Saturday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the coast. Expect a bit of a lull on Sunday before the next upper level disturbance and associated cold front pushes offshore late Monday into early Tuesday with another round of showers and storms. As this disturbance approaches, winds on Sunday night into Monday are expected to reach the caution flag threshold. This front may initially stall near the coast until a stronger front pushes through around midweek.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 81 61 76 55 / 50 20 10 10 Houston (IAH) 85 69 82 60 / 50 40 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 71 78 68 / 20 40 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.