textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Sprinkles will move through the area Tuesday, with a low chance of light measurable rain.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one on Wednesday and another Friday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

A weak southern stream upper low is currently near the Big Bend region. It will move eastward across the state Tuesday and Tuesday night as it becomes absorbed into an amplifying trough across the central and eastern CONUS. Local radar echoes have been mainly virga so far, but a couple stations near and southwest of Corpus Christi have reported a trace-0.01" of light rain. That batch of light rain may brush areas near the coast overnight. Better lift arrives with the upper low during the day on Tuesday along with the left-exit region of an upper-level subtropical jet streak. Mid-levels will be fairly saturated, but dry air will remain in place at low-levels. Expect at least some sprinkles to move through during the day with a low chance of light measurable rain at any given location. Associated cloudcover will knock at least a couple degrees off of high temperatures.

A highly amplified upper-level pattern will be in place through the end of the week and into the weekend, with ridging along the West Coast and a deep trough over the eastern CONUS. Several shortwaves will reinforce the eastern CONUS trough. Southeast Texas will be underneath dry, generally northwesterly flow aloft along the back side of the trough. Two dry frontal passages are expected Wednesday afternoon and Friday night with brief warm-ups prior to the fronts with southwest winds, followed by an increase in northerly winds behind the fronts. Some deamplificiation of the pattern may take place by early next week.

JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

All sites at VFR with VFR prevailing through the period. BKN to OVC mid-high level clouds will continue through the period. NE winds will give way to more light and variable winds overnight. Winds will become SW inland during the day Tuesday.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1052 PM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Mariners should anticipate negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern half of the the bays. Will maintain the Low Water Advisory in place, though values will probably fall just short of criteria (-1 MLLW) Tuesday morning. A Wednesday daytime frontal passage will push additional water out of the bay, with another Low Water Advisory likely being needed for Thursday morning. Mariners should be cognizant of grounding risks.

Light winds and low seas are expected Tuesday with a low chance for light rain. The next front is expected to push into the waters Wednesday afternoon with increasing northwest and north winds filling in behind it Wednesday night into Thursday. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed during this time period.

JDavis

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 62 44 61 43 / 0 0 20 0 Houston (IAH) 62 45 61 46 / 0 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 52 60 54 / 0 20 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ335.