textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected for the remainder of the work week and into the weekend.

- Warm and humid conditions will prevail in between rounds of precipitation.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast today and Friday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Isolated to scattered late morning and early afternoon showers and thunderstorms brought 1-2 inches of rainfall for areas that saw this activity, with localized higher amounts favoring the I-45 corridor across the Houston metro, which prompted a number of Flood Advisory issuances. Current activity is now favored over the coastal counties, but expected to redevelop and move inland again later this afternoon as mesoanalysis depicts a favored area of deep moist convergence centered over the Galveston Bay area.

Residual ridging aloft continues to get weakened by shortwave activity moving across the central to southern Plains, which continues to enable daily seabreeze shower and thunderstorm activity. A closed low tracking eastward across northern Mexico will continue the persistence forecast of daily shower/storm activity with locally heavy rainfall into this weekend. Once this upper low feature ejects north of the region by late this weekend, shower and storm activity is then anticipated to wane as upper level ridging builds ever so slightly and PWAT anomalies fall from ~150% of normal back towards right around normal by early next week. Temperatures will follow generally a below normal trend over the next several days due to the shower/storm activity, but anticipated warming temperatures with afternoon highs reaching into the lower 90s for areas that don't see convection starting early next week.

Positive mid-level height anomalies will likely linger into the middle of the week, but looks like some combination of a Pacific trough and/or an influx of tropical moisture will work to break the ridge down going into the latter portions of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 557 AM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Mixed bag of IFR to VFR ceilings with the lower ceilings currently near and north of the Houston metro area. Expect IFR/MVFR ceilings to persist through at least the mid-morning hours with the potential to stick around into the early afternoon hours. SH/TS coverage will gradually increase throughout the day with the greatest coverage expected to be around and south of the Houston metro. Highest confidence window for TS is generally between 17Z-22Z. Gusty winds and decreased visibilities/ceilings are possible within any storms. Another round of TS is expected late this evening into the overnight hours mainly south of I-10 and along the I-45 corridor. Timing for this convection is a bit more uncertain, but generally looks to be after 06Z. Another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings is anticipated overnight and into Friday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CDT Thu Jun 4 2026

Easterly to southeasterly winds will prevail through the rest of the week before turning more southerly around Saturday. Winds will be elevated with periods of small craft exercise caution to small craft advisory headlines will be likely needed at times. In addition, due to the prolonged winds there may be increased waves, rip currents, and slightly higher water levels during high tide cycle.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 72 85 72 86 / 30 40 30 60 Houston (IAH) 73 86 75 88 / 60 60 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 80 88 / 40 30 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 7 PM CDT this evening through late tonight for GMZ335-355-375.