textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Waves continue to subside today, however, a risk of rip currents remains through the week.

- Warm and dry today, SE winds of 10-15 mph decrease by this evening.

- Gradual warming trend into next week with isolated rain chances daily.

- Cold front on the horizon... generally around Friday-Saturday. Cooler fall temps and higher rain chances possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

Water vapor satellite imagery shows a dry airmass in place at low- mid levels, and visible imagery shows mostly clear skies. Surface analysis reveals a high pressure situated generally to our east (over the TX/LA border), and SE flow dominating for our area. Mid- upper level ridging continues to anchor over SE TX, allowing for above normal temps and low humidity. Over the course of the day, a subtle tightening of the surface pressure gradient is expected as the surface high builds in. Additionally, the dry airmass at low- mid levels + daytime heating should slightly steepen low-level lapse rates and allow for vertical mixing. These two factors combined will increase wind speeds over the area, especially west of I-45. Expect winds increasing to around 10-15 mph, with gusts up to 20 mph possible through this afternoon. Winds decrease by the evening, as daytime heating is lost.

Apologies to those of you who have been enjoying the low humidity the past several days... a pattern change is expected tomorrow as a surface boundary approaches, moving N/NE over the Gulf. A plume of Gulf moisture creeps into our region as early as tomorrow morning, causing an increase in humidity. PWs show a high probability of exceeding 2 inches, which is above normal for this time of year (if you're curious, normal PWs for mid October are around 1.4 inches). The mid-upper level ridging looks to stick around, which limits the potential for precip tomorrow. However, CAMs show a slight increase in sfc CAPE over our area as that surface boundary heads north. There will be plenty of moisture available, and there should be just enough lift to generate some showers tomorrow afternoon. The CAMs are starting to pick up on this, and there is even a low-end chance for some thunder. This pattern of warm and humid w/ chances for showers in the afternoon continues through the work week.

Now for the exciting part... an update on next weekend's cold front! Models are converging on the idea of a cold front moving in from the NW sometime on Friday/Friday evening. Ensembles and most deterministic models are sold on the idea, ushering in cooler and drier air. There is still uncertainty regarding the strength of this front. Some models show lovely fall temps, with highs dipping into the 60s and 70s. The ECMWF looks to be the odd one out, with high temps remaining in the 80s. There is agreeance that dry air will move in from the NW this weekend, so at the very least, humidity would decrease.

MLG

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

VFR conditions prevail for the remainder of the afternoon and evening. SE winds should increase to 10-15kt then diminish after sunset. With a slow increase in llvl moisture tonight I wouldn't be surprised if we see some patchy late night and morning fog around the usual terminals (CXO/LBX/SGR)...and maybe some intermittent 2500ft cigs elsewhere. Heading into late morning and afternoon hours on Monday, there should be enough moisture in place to begin seeing some scattered shower development and have included some PROB30's for some locations.

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MARINE

Issued at 1126 AM CDT Sun Oct 11 2026

There is a moderate risk of rip currents today, with waves of 2-3 ft and SE winds at 10-15 kts. Rip current risk increases tomorrow as onshore flow persists and waves increase to the 4-5 ft range. By mid week, waves subside, though a moderate risk for rip currents remains through the work week. A cold front is forecast for next weekend, and with it, cooler and drier air is expected over the Gulf waters. The strength of this front is still uncertain. If it ends up being a stronger front, winds could significantly increase over the Gulf waters due to the temperature gradient between the warm Gulf waters and the cool air. General timing would be a FROPA on Friday/Friday evening. Again, the strength of this front is still uncertain, but this will be something to look out for this weekend.

MLG

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 93 74 94 / 0 30 10 50 Houston (IAH) 72 91 77 92 / 0 30 10 60 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 81 86 / 0 40 30 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.