textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will be a last day for warmer than average high temperatures before the arrival of our next cold front.

- Expect scattered to numerous showers along and ahead of that front Tuesday afternoon and evening. Should the timing of any rain line up well with the warmest part of the afternoon, some embedded thunderstorms could also occur.

- After a brief cool down to near seasonal averages in the midweek, expect above normal temperatures to return by Friday, and carry through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Monday was a day that started relatively chilly with even some folks down around freezing...but by afternoon, we saw a temperatures on the warm side of average, and even pushing over 70 degrees in some spots thanks to the return of onshore flow. To pair with that, tonight looks quite mild, setting us up for another warm day on Tuesday...at least until the cold front comes in.

One interesting thing we'll have to look at is the specific timing of the front. If it swoops in very near peak heating, but just a little too late to chop down temps, we will be in the situation where temps can really race up well into the 70s for much of the area with southwest flow and a bit of compressional heating as well. The current timing would tend to support this outcome, so the temperature forecast reflects it. Also...this gives us a small zone of instability just ahead of the front, plus a bit of mechanical forcing just ahead/along the boundary. And...while not super impressive, perhaps a bit of a diffluent pattern in the upper jet? That one's much more iffy. All in all, to me it adds up to a scenario in which we get some isolated embedded thunderstorms in the broader development of showers.

North winds develop in the wake of the front, and while the coldest air brought on by this system looks to stay hemmed up in Canada, enough modestly colder air should filter in to bring us back to to near-average temps for the Wednesday and Thursday timeframe. But, with onshore flow returning by Thursday evening, we'll keep the weather train chugging right along and give us a warming trend into the weekend. I don't deviate much from NBM here as it seems to have a relatively decent handle on the big picture in this progressive, relatively low amplitude pattern. There's always the ironing out of its weird quirks that routinely pop up, but not much need to make wholesale changes here. I've got Friday pegged as a day pretty similar to today, with even more warmth building in for the weekend. By Sunday, the warmest spots in the area will be looking to reach for the 80 degree mark.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 510 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026

LLJ overhead should result in some LLWS early today at KCLL where these winds are strongest compared to that of the surface. Light showers early this morning will grow in coverage and remain draped over the region for much of the daytime. MVFR-IFR CIGs will be slow to lift out as a result, thus some locations will see high- end MVFR CIGS persist into the afternoon. Cold front is anticipated to push through the area, entering the Brazos Valley late this afternoon and pushing off the coast overnight. Broken line of showers and some isolated storms could form along the front itself, along with some MVFR CIGs. VFR conditions return as drier air fills in behind the front.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1018 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026

Small craft should exercise caution through tonight and tomorrow morning, with onshore flow reaching very near Small Craft Advisory thresholds, along with a few gusts of 20 to 25 knots. Indeed, a couple observations from farther offshore are right up on the advisory threshold - and a need for a small, short advisory may emerge overnight. Regardless, winds decrease Tuesday afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches, with showers likely along and ahead of the front. There may also be some patchy fog as those winds weaken just before the front arrives.

Once the front passes, expect gusty north winds to develop for Wednesday and Thursday. Anticipate a need for small craft advisories with these gusty winds, particularly Wednesday into Wednesday night. Fortunately, while confidence is quite high that winds will reach advisory-level (approaching 100 percent probabilities in the experimental NBM v5), confidence is similarly high that this appears to be a relatively low-end wind event as well, with a modestly cold airmass making its way over cold waters. Those same probabilities that are so high for advisory conditions are virtually nil for gale conditions.

Another thing we will need to watch for following the frontal passage is the potential return of low water on the bays. The hope is that recovery in this stretch of onshore winds and higher astronomical tides will help mitigate low water conditions after the post-frontal north winds develop. Still, at least some negative tides are anticipated and may fall low enough to prompt another advisory, with Wednesday evening's low tide cycle being a particular concern.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 71 42 64 37 / 50 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 72 47 64 40 / 60 50 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 65 51 61 46 / 40 70 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for GMZ350-355-375.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ370.