textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Rainfall has been unimpressive up to this point today, but let's keep a close look around the I-10 corridor late in the day and evening. Some guidance shows an uptick in storm development and localized heavy rain there.

- Continued rain chances Sunday, followed by some drier air moving in early next week (moreso inland).

- After a break in the rain, we should see chances ramp back up across parts of the region Thur-Sat (probably coastal areas).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Somewhat benign conditions so far today inland, with most precip offshore in association with coastal troffiness, then another area across north Tx ahead of the diffuse H85 front. That said, we're seeing breaks of sunshine between those 2 areas and temps warming close to 90F. With any further heating, we could see some shra/tstm development initiating inland later this afternoon. HRRR has done a reasonable job so far today, and it's been showing the area between the I-10 and HWY 105 corridors lighting up later today. Guidance has also shown signals indicating the potential for some *localized* 2-5" totals into late evening which could bring a street flooding threat if this occurs over a more metro location. Let's keep an eye on things. Otherwise, some iso-sct shra continuing overnight into Sunday, more widespread offshore.

Surface high pressure begins sinking sewd thru the Plains into the Ohio/Tennessee/Mississippi Valleys early next week. This should drive some drier air into the region, especially inland parts, and push the surface front further offshore. This'll give most of the area lower rain chances into midweek. But, as the high lifts back to the northeast, we'll see the coastal trof and associated deeper moisture become re-established closer to the coast. A mid-level trof/low becomes established across northern Mexico and West Texas, and disturbances rotating around it should contribute to rain chances trending back up Thur-Sat until it tracks to the east late next weekend. There's not the best of model agreement in terms of the finer details (positioning/timing/etc), so would anticipate so forecast tweaks in the coming days. 47

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 703 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

A trough in the Gulf and a slow southward moving front continue to bring sub-VFR conditions through this TAF cycle. Model confidence has increased for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms tonight, prompting TEMPOs from 00 to 04Z/05Z for CXO and all TAF sites south of it. Any showers/thunderstorms that form over terminals are capable of bringing sub-VFR cigs/vis and gusty winds. By 04Z, MVFR cigs arrive for most TAF sites with a drop to IFR cigs by 07 to 09Z. Currently, we anticipate cigs/vis to improve starting around 16Z with VFR returning by 20Z, but there are models which keep IFR cigs deep into the afternoon. For now, we wrote in a SCT008 with an MVFR OVC deck at 16Z to hint at the potential of those IFR cigs sticking around. Winds during this period will generally be out of the NNE/NE at 8-12 kts.

MARINE

Issued at 100 PM CDT Sat Oct 3 2026

Winds/seas (15-25kt & 5-7ft) have been overperforming and will maintain the advisory flags through the evening and monitor trends. Suspect these might need to be extended into mid morning Sunday - or replaced with Caution flags at a minimum. Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the weekend, with locally heavier thunderstorms possible. Moderate northeast winds will prevail along with 4 to 7 foot seas. Winds/seas are expected to increase further early next week as the front pushes further offshore. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 81 67 85 / 40 30 20 10 Houston (IAH) 73 82 72 87 / 60 30 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 77 84 77 86 / 80 70 60 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday afternoon for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.