textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Uneventful, muggy conditions will continue through the weekend with a low chance of isolated showers and thunderstorms.

- Confidence continues to increase on wetter, more impactful weather across southeast Texas with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall more likely in the next 7 days.

- Continued intensity of onshore winds will deliver impacts to all Gulf-facing beachfronts through the weekend, including increasing threats for coastal flooding and rip currents.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Southerly winds have started to return in earnest across southeast Texas as ridging builds to our east at the surface and aloft. Subsequent warm air advection continues near the surface with the 70-degree isodrosotherm gradually creeping with muggy air north of I-10 through the rest of the day. Across the Intermountain West, troughing will continue establishing itself (base of the trough axis near the Four Corners region) through the weekend with multiple rounds of ejections across the Great Plains as the next workweek begins. With this synoptic setup, the attendant frontal boundary (that is expected to only approach and not pass through the area) will serve as the focusing/lifting mechanism by next Tuesday as southwesterly flow aloft remains in place until then and advects embedded vorticity maxima (and scattered rain chances) across the area starting as early as tomorrow night. A diurnally-driven convective pattern will begin in earnest by Monday through Tuesday, producing some wetting rains, however, meager atmospheric ingredients will inhibit most storm intensities to sub-severe levels through this week.

By Wednesday, long-range guidance suggests convection that becomes more spatiotemporally widespread in distribution as the frontal boundary is expected to make its closest approach. Within current Days 1-7 QPF totals of 2-4+ inches, the bulk of precipitation distribution appears to fall towards the middle of the week as a result. Temperatures will also respond in kind with maximums and minimums moderated near to below normal later next week (mid-80s/low-to-mid 70s, respectively). Rainy conditions are expected to continue through the end of the next workweek into next weekend as the frontal boundary stays nearby.

Cassel

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

Primary concern today will be gusty southeast winds. By late morning and afternoon, winds could gust up to around 25 knots. Winds are expected to decrease this evening. However, there will also be an increasing risk of MVFR cigs as we head into the evening and overnight hours. At the coast, winds are expected to remain elevated into the overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1238 AM CDT Sat May 16 2026

An extended period of onshore fetch is underway across the Gulf due to building high pressure to our east placing and elongating southeasterly winds in a more perpendicular orientation to the Upper Texas shoreline. Confirmed by P-ETSS guidance, this will induce and maintain moderate seas up to 5 ft. through the weekend with Small Craft Advisories becoming more likely for mariners in addition to the Beach Hazards Statement (in effect through Monday morning), where subsequently strong rip currents are a primary concern for all beachgoers to be aware of.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 88 75 90 78 / 0 10 20 20 Houston (IAH) 88 77 89 79 / 0 20 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 79 85 80 / 0 10 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.