textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms (especially north of I-10) today and tomorrow. Isolated more intense cells will capable of producing hail, gusty winds, and brief heavy downpours.

- Strong late season cold front, and associated rain/storms, will push through the area Friday and Friday night followed by much cooler and breezy conditions in its wake.

- Strong winds (possible gales) and 6-12ft seas are expected in the coastal waters Friday night into Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Rest of today and this evening: Diffuse frontal boundary stretching from just north of our CWA border into cntl TX will slowly sag southward. perturbations in the mid/upper levels have initiated scattered elevated storms behind the front this afternoon in NE TX and also cntl/scntl TX. Cloud cover has kept instability in check locally so far, but satellite imagery is showing some thinning and some breaks of sun. Let's keep an eye out for potential a few isolated-scattered tstms to develop and/or propagate into the region into the late evening...mainly areas north of I-10. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though the atmos could become unstable enough to support large hail or gusty winds in any rouge intense cells that may (or may not) develop.

Thursday and Thursday evening: Same general setup as described above, but with mid/upper ridging being suppressed a bit further south and the diffuse, nearly stationary, front meandering about in our area...the thinking is that we'll probably see a bit more coverage than what we're seeing today.

Thursday night and Friday: A deeper mid-upper trough begins approaching from the west Thursday night with some leading impulses in advance. Anticipate increasing shra/tstm development to our west Thursday night associated with the larger scale lift...eventually overspreading SE TX as the day progresses Friday. Complicating the scenario is the high PW's in place, a potential H85 low developing on the frontal zone, and a bit of upper diffluence. This general setup tends to set up a llvl convergent zone that focuses some persistent and/or training rains and might lead to a swath of higher qpf totals. Exactly where this sets up isn't clear...but probably somewhere north of the I69-I10 corridor. Along and north of this zone, look for some 2-4" totals...less to the south. The ground should be able to absorb those amounts if they're spread over a 6+ hour period. That said, any embedded more intense training cells can easily drop that in an hour or two and initiate some street flooding. Will also need to watch locations near the near the warm sector (coastal or nearshore areas) for an isolated rotating storm or two.

This wave will push off to the east Friday evening and night followed by the cold front. Rain will taper off, winds will become breezy and cooler temperatures will advect into the region.

Weekend: Breezy on Saturday, but the weekend wx looks quite pleasant with drier and less humid conditions. Overnight lows in the 50s and daytime highs in the 70s.

Early next week: A gradual warming/modifying trend as high pressure moves off to the east and onshore winds resume. It appear moisture levels will recover enough for scattered tstm development in advance of a Pacific front moving into the region Wednesday-ish. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through the morning before lifting back to VFR in the late morning to early afternoon hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop in the late morning/early afternoon beginning near the northern terminals and drifting southward through the afternoon. Timing of the convection and how far south the storms last are a bit uncertain as each high-res model guidance member offers a different solution. The PROB30's are a current best guess, but may be amended based on radar trends later today. These showers/storms will be developing along a frontal boundary, so expect winds to remain generally below 10 kt throughout the day. Light northerly winds will prevail behind the front (most likely CXO northward) and light southerly winds will prevail south of the front. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings expected overnight along with scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms overnight into Thursday morning...although the timing and location of these are also uncertain.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 157 PM CDT Wed Apr 29 2026

Onshore winds in the 10-15kt range will diminish overnight as a weak frontal boundary moves into parts of southeast Texas and stalls. The pressure gradient could be weak enough whereas a very weak landbreeze develops by morning. Any light north winds in the coastal waters early in the morning will quickly transition back to the southeast by early afternoon Thursday.

Shower and thunderstorm activity will be on the increase Friday and winds will back to the east northeast 20-25kt in advance of a cold front that will be moving into the bays early in the evening. Strong northerly winds (25-35kt) and elevated seas (6-12ft) are expected in the wake of the front. Gale Warnings may be required for the bays and Gulf. Winds and seas should gradually diminish Saturday evening and Sunday. Onshore flow will resume early next week as high pressure moves off to the east. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 77 60 64 / 40 30 80 100 Houston (IAH) 72 83 65 69 / 30 40 50 100 Galveston (GLS) 75 80 71 78 / 10 10 40 90

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.