textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front will stall near the coastal locations tonight, then slowly lift as a warm front on Thursday. Expect warmer conditions Thursday into Friday.

- A stronger system is forecast to arrive Saturday, bringing the potential for scattered to widespread showers and storms. While confidence in rainfall is increasing, specific details on timing and total amounts remain uncertain. Please consider alternate plans for outdoor activities, if able.

- Tranquil conditions are expected Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

The weak cold front is currently making its way southward across the coastal locations of Southeast Texas. Areas of showers mainly along the frontal boundary will continue to develop this afternoon, but if the front has enough push to make it further into the coastal waters, it would keep much of the shower activity over the Gulf. If it stalls near the coast, then expect a few more isolated showers near the coast along with the potential for some coastal and sea fog tonight. The weak boundary will linger over or near the coastal areas tonight, however, the cooler and drier air behind the front will be able to push over areas north of I-10 and allow for slightly lower temperatures overnight. We will see lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region, the mid to upper 50s for the rest of the inland portions, and the upper 50s to lower 60s along the coast.

Now, the bad news is that ridging will build overhead and the boundary will begin to slowly lift north-northeastward on Thursday as a warm front, and could bring southwest to west wind flow over Southeast Texas. This would lead to warmer daytime temperatures with highs peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s for the inland areas and in the lower to mid 70s along the coasts on Thursday. Once the front exits to our northeast, warm and humid conditions will prevail Thursday night into Friday as our typical south to southeasterly wind flow returns. Our lows will be back in the 60s and the highs for Friday look to stay in the upper 70s to lower 80s range.

Now the main headliner for this forecast package is this Saturday's weather pattern (Valentine's Day and we know that Houston has no luck with holiday weather events). A mid to upper level trough currently over the eastern Pacific will progress eastward and make its way across the Southern Plains sometime late Friday into Saturday. A surface low and associated cold front will then push into the northern and central portions of Texas by Saturday morning. We could see isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms starting late Friday night, increasing early Saturday morning as the front progress towards the Brazos Valley region and increases lift. Fairly good moisture convergence could occur just ahead of the front and models have been fairly consistent since yesterday with bringing scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms for much of Southeast Texas throughout the day Saturday. This could lead to some ponding of water along roadways and poor drainage areas. There might also be the potential for strong to possibly severe storms. We are keeping an eye on the model trends and looking into the timing and location of severe weather impacts, if any. If you have any outdoor plans/surprises for Valentines Day, continue to monitor the forecast and weather updates and consider alternate plans if able.

At the moment, the cold front is progged to exit our local area rather quickly sometime Saturday evening or Saturday night. Drier air will follow behind the front, ending our chance for rain. Tranquil weather conditions on Sunday and prevail through at least early next week.

Cotto

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 448 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Frontal boundary stalled right along the coastline will make for a difficult forecast the coastal TAF sites. Areas south of this boundary are likely to see rapidly deteriorating conditions with IFR-LIFR FLs, while areas to the north experience predominantly* VFR conditions during the nighttime. Based on guidance, it appears that this boundary should meander north slightly, encompassing both KLBX and KGLS overnight. Boundary could slide southward early on Thursday, which may result in some FL improvements during the pre-dawn hours at KLBX. Around sunrise, some brief IFR CIGS could develop across portions of the Metro area, in part from NE winds and moisture advection off Lake Houston. Either way, most areas should return to VFR FLs by 9-10am, prevailing throughout the daytime. Anticipate another round of CIGS & fog Thursday night.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1201 PM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

A weak cold front is expected to stall near or over the coastal waters today and tonight. This will make the forecast for sea fog a bit tricky. If the front stalls closer to the coastline, then there will still be the potential for some sea fog to develop over the Gulf waters and possibly into portions of the bays later tonight or early Thursday morning. However, if it progresses further into the Gulf waters, then we might not see much fog development. The environment becomes more favorable for fog late Thursday into Friday as onshore flow returns.

Winds and seas will be on the rise Friday into Saturday as the local pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next cold front. Periods of showers and thunderstorms expected Friday, increasing Saturday ahead of the front. Elevated water levels are possible over the bays during high tide on Saturday. Moderate to occasionally strong NW winds expected on Sunday. Caution flags and/or Small Craft Advisories may be needed. Winds will relax Sunday night and turn NE to E on Monday. Onshore flow returns early next week.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 50 79 59 79 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 57 79 61 78 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 58 72 60 72 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.