textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue with scattered showers and storms through Wednesday, followed by a drier day on Thursday.

- A cold front arrives Friday, bringing a chance of coastal showers/storms, gusty north to northeast winds, and cooler/drier conditions to the region this weekend.

- Marine Conditions: Onshore winds and 3 to 5 ft seas will shift nort- northeasterly on Friday behind the front, with Small Craft Advisories likely and a potential for Gale conditions through Saturday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

No significant changes were made to the forecast. Surface high pressure centered to our east will maintain south to southeasterly flow across the region through at least late Thursday. A mid to upper level ridge overhead is also providing some subsidence/drier air locally; however, with PWs running well above average (2.1 - 2.4 inches), and diurnal heating scattered showers and storms will be possible this afternoon.

As the ridging aloft shifts eastward by Wed, low to mid level moisture remains elevated (PW 2.0-2.3"). Therefore, another day with scattered rain/storms can be expected, especially west of I-45. A drier day is anticipated for Thursday as PW vales drop below 1.2 inches.

The next weather story is the arrival of a stronger front, potentially the first real cold front of the season. A strong high pressure centered over the Rockies will push a cold front through on Friday, likely resulting in breezy, drier and cooler conditions in its wake. It will be a warm day with highs in the 80s, but with breezy winds shifting to the north-northeast as the pressure gradient tightens and the front moves through. A few showers and storms are possible ahead of and along the FROPA, with the best chances over the coastal zones. Cooler conditions are expected through the weekend with temperatures in the 70s to low 80s and overnight temperatures in the 50s and 60s. With mostly clear skies and light surface winds, Saturday night into Sunday is shaping up to be the coolest night of the period. Low temperatures could potentially reach the low 50s across our far northern counties (near the Madisonville and Crockett areas). The NBM probability of temperatures being less than 50F is around 30-40% for these areas, and in the 20 to 30% range for the Brazos Valley.

Rain and storm chances return early next week as a surface trough/easterly wave approaches from the southwestern Gulf.

JM

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Showers are anticipated through the afternoon, generally east of I- 45. Thunder is unlikely but can't be ruled out for a few of the stronger storms. Elevated winds out of the SE remain through the afternoon and decrease by the evening. Overnight, another round of MVFR level CIGs is expected to fill in, generally north of I-10. IFR CIGs are possible as well, for the more northern sites. MVFR CIGs stick around into the morning hours, and scatter out by late tomorrow morning. There are some low probabilities for showers tomorrow morning, for the western portions of the region. Confidence was too low to include in the current TAF cycle.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 1251 PM CDT Tue Oct 13 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds with occasional gusts around 15 to 20 kts and seas around 3 to 5 ft will continue through the next few days. A frontal boundary is forecast to move off the coast by Friday, resulting in north-northeast winds. Behind the front, cooler air will filter in that, combined with warm waters could potentially lead to stronger winds by Friday night. We continue to monitor for potential gale conditions as models continue to show probabilities of 40 to 70% of winds at or greater than 35 kts through Saturday morning, with the highest probabilities well offshore. Having said that, Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued, with the potential for Gale conditions, especially offshore. Winds and seas will gradually weaken/subside Saturday night into Sunday. Better rain and storm chances arrive early next week as a coastal trough moves along the TX coast.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 94 75 92 69 / 20 10 40 10 Houston (IAH) 91 77 90 72 / 50 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 87 80 85 79 / 30 20 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.