textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late tonight through Thursday afternoon.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one currently pushing through this afternoon and another late Friday afternoon. These fronts will keep temperatures seasonably cool into the weekend.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third cold front early next week brings potential for rainfall.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

A reinforcing cold front is in the process of pushing through SE Texas this afternoon. A prefrontal trough ahead of this boundary has caused winds to shift W/WNW. Satellite derived TPW ranges from 0.5-0.75 inches across the area, rather low, thus this FROPA should be almost entirely dry. The front should move off the coast later this afternoon with breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures filtering in behind it. Daytime highs should top out in the 60s/lower 70s, but anticipate much cooler temps overnight with lows for Thursday morning in the 30s/40s. A light freeze is expected occur in many spots across the Piney Woods area around Crockett.

Thursday is still slated to be a fairly quiet day as we find ourself post-cold front. Surface high pressure should pass over the region during the daytime with breezy northerly winds early in the day becoming light and variable, then later shifting southeasterly in the evening. Daytime highs will be fairly cool as onshore flow is still set to occur after peak heating with highs topping out in the 50s. After onshore flow is resumes, we'll see moisture slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of cooling. Lows for Friday morning will should be slightly warmer, though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with some lower 50s along the coast.

Friday will see another mid/upper level trough dig through the North- Central Plains/Mississippi River Valley. This trough should send another cold front towards SE Texas, which will enter the Brazos Valley some time during the late afternoon then push off the coast later in the evening by around midnight. PWs will still be low, forecasted to be around 0.75" or less, thus rain appears unlikely with this FROPA as well. Highs during the daytime should top out in the 60s/lower 70s. Breezy and cooler air filters in overnight into the early morning hours with lows for Saturday morning ranging from the 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast. Could see lows touch the freezing mark across the northern edge of our CWA.

Saturday on the whole should feature benign, post-frontal weather as high pressure fills in over the region, causing winds to relax and shift northeasterly. Highs should reach the 50s/60s during the daytime. Clear skies aloft from high pressure and with northerly flow still in place, we should see some of the coolest temperatures overnight into Sunday morning with lows in the upper 20s/lower 40s.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return early in the evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach the mid 50s/upper 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/lower 50s.

The brief warm-up looks to come to an abrupt end once again on Monday, as long range models indicate that another mid/upper level trough should dig across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Monday, sending a third cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still uncertain and varies by model with the front passing through some time early on Monday/early Tuesday afternoon. An earlier FROPA as shown in the ECMWF will be drier, whereas a later FROPA shown in the GFS will be wetter.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 PM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Gusty northerly winds will decrease this evening into tonight. The exception will be near the coast, where winds will likely remain elevated into to morrow morning. Wind shear values are not expected to reach thresholds that would warrant mention in the TAFs. That being said, we will need to monitor the shear as surface winds decrease while winds aloft remain elevated this evening into tonight (00Z to 09Z). For tomorrow, expect much lighter winds. We think tomorrow's winds will generally average from the north, but may become more variable as the day progresses.

MARINE

Issued at 1129 AM CST Wed Jan 14 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern half of the the bays. Another cold front will push off the coast later this afternoon, prompting Small Craft Advisories across all bays and waters. A Low Water Advisory will be in effect overnight into Thursday morning for Galveston bay, as water levels dip below -1.0ft MLLW at low tide. High pressure passes over the area Thursday, causing winds and seas to decrease and shift southeasterly. Another cold front is slated to push off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing moderate northeasterly winds in it's wake.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 35 59 43 70 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 39 58 44 72 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 45 58 51 68 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Low Water Advisory from midnight tonight to noon CST Thursday for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.