textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Freezing rain and sleet are ongoing across the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods and will continue expanding southward towards the Houston Metro and potentially the coast by Sunday morning. Ice may be heavy enough to result in power outages in some areas, particularly in the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods.

- Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories are in effect across Southeast Texas.

- ANY amount of ice can result in dangerous travel conditions. Travel impacts will last until at least Monday as moisture refreezes on roadways. Impacts possible through Tuesday at least in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard freezes are expected Sunday morning through Tuesday morning. Portions of the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley will stay below freezing for multiple days.

- Dangerously cold wind chills are expected, with values ranging from as low as 10 degrees at the coast and as low as near 0 degrees in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley. - Be advised that conditions will continue to gradually deteriorate throughout the night into Sunday morning as the freezing line continues to expand southward.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

The freezing line continues to gradually expand southward and thus so does the potential for freezing. Since we are in the midst of winter storm/ice storm conditions, I'll keep this discussion mainly tailored at what's happening, what to expect, and the resultant impacts. I'll keep the sciency jargon to a minimum, I want you to have all the information you need to stay safe. I'm also going to separate the initial discussion into three different regions. You'll be able to find your applicable region and we'll discuss everything you need to know. Afterwards, we'll discuss ways to stay safe and to stay warm from the extremely cold conditions that stick with us going into next week. To finish things up, we'll briefly discuss weather conditions towards the middle to late part of the week. I know what some of you may have seen/heard about next weekend, but let's focus all of our attention on what's going on right now first.

Before we dive in, I have a quick request to help us out with winter precipitation reports overnight into Sunday morning! There's an app called mPING that you can download on your smartphone. This app gives you the ability to submit what type of precipitation is falling at your location. This will help us keep track of exactly where the transition line of rain to freezing rain and/or sleet is. Now we're not asking anyone to put themselves in any danger and get out on the road to submit reports. These reports can be sent from the comfort of your home. Thanks in advance for your assistance! o7

Brazos Valley/Piney Woods -------------------------

As expected, there was a brief lull in precipitation (other than mist) during the late afternoon to early evening hours. While this was occuring, temperatures at the surface continued to gradually decrease and eventually began falling below freezing in some spots as early as 4-5pm. We've been monitoring the mesonet site at Texas A&M as well (Howdy Ags!) and that station dropped below freezing between 7pm-8pm. This is a bit later than anticipated, but the anticipated impacts remain the same...we'll discuss that in the next paragraph. The next wave of precipitation will move in closer to midnight as a 35-45 kt low-level jet (elevated winds around 5,000 ft above the ground) expands across Southeast Texas. This wave of freezing rain could be moderate to heavy at times as model guidance is still insisting on a frontogenetic band passing through the area. Think of this as a focus point for enhanced precipitation. This is why in some model guidance, there's a band of higher accumulations/totals (exact location of that is still iffy though). Within this band, it's entirely possible for some instances of thunder as well. Ice accumulations in this region are expected to be around 0.25" with some potential for higher amounts closer to 0.5" in the Piney Woods. Later tonight into early Sunday morning, as the surface freezing layer continues to deepen, there is expected to be a changeover to a freezing rain/sleet mix. Sleet accumulations up to 0.5" will be possible in this region. The window for frozen precipitation lasts through early Sunday morning around sunrise before coming to an end. You could make the argument though that as the sub-freezing temperature column continues to deepen on early Sunday morning (would need some wet bulbing assistance as well) that a few flurries could mix in over the Piney Woods at the tail-end of the precip window.

Keep in mind that ice accumulations over 0.25" can lead to weather- related power outages as ice accumulates on trees and power lines. Additionally, pine trees in the Piney Woods still have their needles so they would be more susceptible to ice accumulations. If enough ice accumulates on them, then we could see large branches and/or trees falling over in this area. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley west of I-45 through Sunday afternoon and an Ice Storm Warning remains in effect for portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods along and east of I-45 through Sunday afternoon. Travel conditions in these areas are expected to be hazardous and may remain so going into Tuesday morning. This is because temperatures are expected to remain below freezing in the daytime on Sunday AND Monday. Monday will feature plenty of sunshine in the afternoon though, so there may be some melting...yep ice can melt even though temperatures remain below freezing. This does mean though that temperatures are expected to remain below freezing for 60+ consecutive hours in portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. Northeastern areas could see as much as 70+ consecutive hours below freezing.

Extremely cold temperatures are also a hazard and we do want you to take this seriously. There will be a hard freeze tonight with low temperatures falling in the low to mid 20s, and keep in mind that there will be frozen precipitation falling tonight into Sunday morning. Factoring in the northerly winds, we'll see wind chill values in the single digits to low 10s. Wind chill values will bottom out the most on Sunday night into Monday morning as air temperatures fall into the low to mid 10s, but it'll feel like near 0 for the most northern areas with widespread wind chills in the single digits. Monday night will be the coldest night air temperature wise with clear skies and light winds. Low temperatures Monday night into Tuesday morning will fall into the single digits to mid 10s across this portion of the region. Another hard freeze is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon.

It's very important that you are enacting your plan to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your home safe and warm. The anticipated ice accumulations may result in weather-related power outages, so it's important that you have a plan in place on how to stay warm in this scenario. Ensure that generators are only used outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family and friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay safe and warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected. Remember that many locations in this region may remain below freezing through Tuesday morning. If you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours during this period, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these conditions, don't make your pets do it either. Don't forget to protect your plants as well!

Houston Metro Area/Along I-10 -----------------------------

Before we even talk about the freezing rain potential, we gotta talk about the elephant in the room. Temperatures in and around the Houston metro area are still holding strong in the mid to upper 30s (as of ~11pm CST), so what gives?! Why is Corpus Christi at 34F and Houston/Bush Airport is 37F?! What's causing this tilted freeze line?! Well the surface map reveals a rather deep trough extending from the Red River down into South TX, this is why temperatures out west are becoming colder than eastern areas as they are more into the northwesterly flow. Out east over the Houston metro area, there remains northeasterly flow so the temperatures have been a bit more hesitant to fall below freezing. That being said, temperatures are still anticipated to fall over the next few hours and become sub- freezing around midnight or later (we'll see if this AFD goes out in time before this becomes a retroactive statement). Once the temperatures fall below freezing, we are expecting a changeover to freezing rain. Based on the latest high-resolution guidance, the surface freezing layer may deepen enough for more a freezing rain/sleet mix, especially if a heavier band of precipitation develops. This would be most likely in the 3am-6am timeframe. There is also potential for a few rumbles of thunder in any of the heavier precipitation that falls, we've already seen instances of this over in Central Texas.

Ice accumulations of around a tenth of an inch are anticipated around the Houston metro area. As we mentioned above, there could be a changeover to sleet in heavier precipitation. This would limit ice accumulations, but would make road conditions more of a hazard. In any case, even a TRACE of ice can create hazardous road conditions especially on elevated roadways. Be sure to check the road conditions before traveling if you absolutely must travel, especially if your routes include any bridges or overpasses. There is some potential that the heavy rains from Saturday morning may lead to the pre-treated roadways being less effective. A Winter Storm Warning remains in effect through Sunday afternoon for this region. The precipitation window comes to an end roughly around 7- 9am Sunday morning.

The question then becomes will temperatures rise above freezing in the afternoon? The answer to that question is...it depends. Areas generally north and west of the metro area are more likely to remain at or below freezing throughout the day. Elsewhere, it is more likely that temperatures briefly rise above freezing into the low to mid 30s for a few hours then fall back below freezing. Any remaining wet surfaces will refreeze going into Sunday night/Monday morning with low temperatures falling into the upper teens to low 20s. Wind chill values on this night will range from the upper single digits to the low 10s. Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the coldest night with low temperatures falling into the upper teens to low 20s. An Extreme Cold Warning remains in effect through Tuesday afternoon. A couple of light freeze nights are expected on Tuesday night and Wednesday night with lows generally in the upper 20s to low 30s.

It's very important that you are enacting your plan to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your home safe and warm. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family and friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay safe and warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected. If you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours during this period, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these conditions, don't make your pets do it either. Don't forget to protect your plants as well!

Coastal Areas -------------

When I originally started writing discussions for this event, it was the Houston metro area that was the more tricky part of the forecast. Now that has transitioned to coastal areas. I initially want to briefly discuss the storms from this morning, since they woke me up from my slumber. Widespread showers and storms lead to widespread rain amounts peaking in the 2-3" range. We even issued a Flood Advisory in Brazoria County just after sunrise! Now you may be thinking, what does this have to do with our winter precip potential. Well initially not much, but where temperatures fall below freezing overnight into Sunday morning, any lingering wet surfaces (mainly a concern for elevated roadways) could freeze leading to hazardous road conditions. In terms of what's going to fall from the sky overnight into Sunday morning, that's where things get tricky. For inland portions of the coastal counties and areas generally around Matagorda Bay, there is fairly good confidence on a period of freezing rain with the main window being now through 5am or so.

Further east along the immediate coast, things get tricky. One or two degrees in either direction will make a big difference here, so we'll just discuss both options to cover our bases. Scenario 1, temperatures fall below freezing. If this were to occur, the main window for freezing rain would be around 5am-8am. Coincidentally, along the coast is where model guidance is showing the best potential for some embedded rumbles of thunder during this timeframe. Since this will be borderline already...any moderate to heavy precipitation could warm things up by a degree or two, then bam back to regular ol' rain. Which brings us to scenario 2 or a sequel to scenario 1, which is temperatures remain just above freezing and we just have a cold rain with a few rumbles of thunder. As a result of the above, a Winter Storm Warning remains in effect for counties around Matagorda and generally inland areas of the eastern coastal counties and a Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for areas along the immediate coast through Sunday afternoon. Remember that there is still potential for trace ice accumulations, and even a TRACE of ice can cause hazardous road conditions (mainly a concern for elevated roadways). Also remember that all of that rain from Saturday morning may inhibit the effectiveness of the pre- treated roadways.

Our attention then turns to the temperatures. Temperatures on Sunday night into Monday morning brings freezing conditions down to the coast with lows ranging from the low to upper 20s. When you factor in the northerly breeze, it'll feel like the low to mid 10s. Also keep in mind that any lingering wet surfaces would freeze in these conditions. Temperatures on Monday night into Tuesday morning will be the coldest of this period with lows in the upper 10s to mid 20s. That's two nights of a hard freeze with additional light freezes the following couple of nights after that going into midweek. It's very important that you are enacting your plan to keep yourself, your loved ones, and your home safe and warm. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family and friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay safe and warm as well. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected. If you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours during this period, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in these conditions, don't make your pets do it either. Don't forget to protect your plants as well!

How Can You Stay Safe? ----------------------

Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home especially in the event of a weather-related power outage (mainly a concern for northern areas). Ensure that generators are only used outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an outlet. Make sure that your family, friends, and neighbors are aware of the forecast and are enacting their plans to stay safe and warm as well. Travel conditions will be hazardous in portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. We've also receive reports of icy roads as far south as northern Jackson County already. If you absolutely must travel, check the road conditions before you go. Have supplies in your car, maintain distance, and take it slow...especially over elevated roadways.

For additional winter safety information, visit 'ready.gov' and you'll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the page where you can find all of the information above and more. Stay safe and stay warm.

Mid-Week & Beyond ------------------

Cold temperatures prevail throughout the week with most locations continuing to see freezing temperatures overnight (20s/30s) and highs in the 40s/50s. Additionally, we are looking at another frontal passage around midweek and another towards the end of the work week. Precipitation chances also return towards the end of the work week going into the weekend as an upper level disturbance pushes in from the west resulting in a coastal trough or low. That's all I'll say about that for now, but I will gently encourage you to not place too much stock into a single deterministic model run this far out. Ensembles have much more value in the long range and can give you a better idea on how confident models are on a particular solution.

Batiste

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1040 PM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Sub-freezing air is gradually pushing into the region while scattered to widespread areas of precip continue to push into the area form the southwest. CLL is already below freezing (and reporting FZRA) while CXO and UTS are about to fall below freezing. The freezing line is expected to push southeast, reaching the Houston metro area overnight into the pre-dawn hours, resulting in FZRA down to IAH, SGR, and HOU. A few bands of heavier precip during the morning hours could bring brief bursts of sleet. Precip is expected to end by mid/late morning, yielding to a mostly cloudy day with gusty NW winds. IFR cigs may improve to MVFR by late morning or afternoon. Winds may gust over 25 knots at times.

MARINE

Issued at 1250 AM CST Sun Jan 25 2026

A strong winter storm will impact the waters of the northwest Gulf and Upper Texas Coast over the next couple of days. Rain showers will impact the waters through this morning and possibly into the early afternoon. Locally heavy showers and even a thunderstorm are possible. Near the coast, and especially inland, there will be a chance of rain mixing with or changing over to sleet and freezing rain. Best chance of wintry precipitation making it to the coast this morning will be in the Matagorda Bay area. However, most coastal areas have at least a slight chance of seeing wintry precipitation. Light ice accumulations are possible, especially just inland.

The system will produce strong north to northwest winds and building seas through Monday. Bay waters will be rough while Gulf seas offshore build to near 10 feet. Winds will generally be 20-30 knots. Occasionally gusts to gale force (~35-37 knots) cannot be ruled out. Winds and seas should improve by Tuesday and Wednesday, remaining relatively benign through the end of the week. However, enough storm system could bring hazardous winds and seas by next weekend.

Self

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 28 16 32 10 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 35 21 38 18 / 50 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 42 27 41 32 / 70 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Extreme Cold Warning until noon CST Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338- 436>439.

Ice Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ163-164- 176>179.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ195>200- 210>213-226-227-235>237-300-313-335.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ214- 238-336>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until noon CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.