textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of dense fog overnight into Thursday morning.

- An Arctic front pushes through Friday night/Saturday, bringing various winter hazards over the weekend: - Extended periods of below freezing temperatures along with hard freezes for parts of the area Saturday night, Sunday night, and Monday night. (Extreme Cold Watch in effect Saturday evening thru Monday) - Low wind chill values, potentially near 0 in northwestern areas. - Freezing Rain/Sleet with hazardous to significant ice accumulations leading to hazardous road conditions (Winter Storm Watch in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday thru Sunday afternoon). - Hazardous marine conditions.

- Residents are encouraged to winterize their home and make plans to keep themselves and loved ones warm during the work week prior to the arrival of the Arctic air.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

If you read last night's discussion, then you'll be familiar with how this discussion is going to be organized. First, we'll discuss the why and the how of the forecast with plenty of sciency jargon to explain what we know and what still remains uncertain. Following that, we'll discuss how the forecast will impact you along with some tips for preparation. As of the moment that I'm typing this, it's still very early Thursday morning. That means that there's still two full days to develop and enact your plans to stay safe and warm. Let's begin, shall we?

Sciency Jargon (Why and How?) -----------------------------

Before we get to the Arctic air/winter weather part...we have to talk about the coastal trough. A coastal trough off to our southwest brought us plenty of rainfall throughout the day on Wednesday. An associated quasi-stationary frontal boundary remains overhead (generally south of I-10) going into Thursday, so the potential for isolated to scattered showers will persist for coastal areas. PW values on Thursday will be closer to the 75th percentile (~1.09") along the immediate coast and that'll be gradually decreasing. So, rain shower coverage won't be as widespread as what we saw on Wednesday. With most of the area receiving rainfall throughout the day on Wednesday and winds becoming light overnight paired with already low dew point depressions, we are anticipating the development of widespread patchy to areas of fog. This fog may be dense at times especially along the I-10 corridor and southward. As a result, a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Thursday mid- morning. There's potential for another round of fog Thursday night into Friday morning as well.

Before the big cooldown, we'll continue in a period of above normal temperatures as zonal flow aloft establishes. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will peak mainly in the low to mid 70s with some upper 70s possible in our southwestern zones. Low temperatures tonight and Thursday night will be mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s (low to mid 50s in the Piney Woods). Fun fact, our normal high temperature is in the low to mid 60s...so our low temperature is what our high temperature should be. That will change soon enough though as an Arctic cold front arrives to the scene on Friday. Exact frontal timing is still a bit uncertain, but we are beginning to enter the range of high-res model guidance. Model guidance generally pushes the front through Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning. As you can imagine, the timing of the front will play a big role in Friday's daytime temperatures. After the cold front pushes through, temperatures will fall going into the overnight hours/early Saturday morning.

This is when our attention turns to an upper level low approaching from the west. Embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft will push into the area beginning Friday night along with a developing 25-35 kt LLJ over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods as the pressure gradient tightens. So, initially the best sources of lift will be up north then gradually spread southward throughout the day on Saturday. One thing of note though is that some model guidance shows mid level dry air infiltrating between 500-700mb, which just so happens to impact moisture availability in the dendritic growth zone. Even though model guidance is reflecting a dry period, there looks to be enough moisture above the surface to at least get some drizzle/light rain if these dry slot scenario unfolds. As the LLJ pushes southward along with the upper level low sliding in (some questions remain on exactly how progressive this low will be) and favorable upper level divergence, precipitation will be widespread Saturday afternoon into Sunday afternoon.

The question that ALL of us are still trying to figure out is how far south does the freezing line move while precipitation is occuring. If you were hoping for the best kind of winter precipitation (snow), sorry but those chances are slim to none. You could argue that as the temperature column continues to cool on early Sunday (would need some wet bulbing assistance as well) that a few flurries could mix in over the Piney Woods at the tail-end of the precip window, but don't get your hopes up elsewhere. The highest confidence that we have for a changeover from cold rain (sad melted snowflakes) to freezing rain/sleet is generally north of the I-10 corridor, especially portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. Exact ice accumulations are still uncertain, but there is definitely potential for accumulating ice in our northern zones. The risk for ice extends to the coast, but uncertainty remains fairly high. For areas south of I-10, the main concern is the potential for ice on elevated surfaces/roadways. Even if there is not a changeover to freezing rain, freezing temperatures Saturday night into Sunday would freeze lingering wet surfaces which could create hazardous travel conditions. As a result, a Winter Storm Watch is in effect for most of SE Texas Saturday through Sunday afternoon. Once we get more confidence in a particular solution, then we'll decide on any potential additions, subtractions, or transition to a Ice Storm Warning vs Winter Storm Warning.

The high temperatures on Sunday will play a role in how long the hazardous road conditions persist. In the Brazos Valley/the Piney Woods, high temperatures will remain below freezing leading to persistent hazardous conditions. Around the I-10 corridor, things are a bit questionable as these areas may or may not briefly rise above freezing. Further south, we'll see high temperatures a few degrees above freezing along with breezy northerly winds. This forecast is subject to change though if enough ice accumulates up north leading to much colder air being advected southward. As we discussed yesterday, model guidance tends to underdo the temperature forecast in this kind of an environment so don't be surprised to see Sunday's high temperatures trend downward. And again, any lingering wet surfaces will once again refreeze Sunday night into Monday morning. This is a good segue to talk about the extremely cold temperatures, which we have fairly good confidence in.

Extremely cold temperatures are also a hazard, and I saved it for last so that it's fresh on your mind following the winter precip potential talk. We are anticipating multiple nights of well below freezing temperatures beginning Friday night for the Piney Woods, and everywhere Saturday night through Monday night. Those three nights are going to be VERY cold, especially Sunday night and Monday night. Low temperatures will range from the low teens to the mid 20s, and that's just the air temperature. When you factor in the northerly breeze, it'll feel like the single digits (potentially near 0 in the Brazos Valley) to the mid teens. I mentioned above that Sunday's high temperatures may not rise above freezing for some locations...this means that northern locations will likely remain below freezing from Saturday morning/afternoon through at least Monday afternoon. Portions of the Piney Woods may not rise above freezing on Monday either which means they may see over 70 consecutive hours of below freezing temperatures. It's also worth a brief mention here (maybe I mentioned it above but no way I'll be able to find it amongst the paragraphs), but the latest model guidance trended slightly warmer. This is common in these type of events, and typically the model guidance adjusts back to where it was so we didn't make any drastic changes to the temperature forecast at the moment.

As a result of all of the above, an Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for all of SE Texas Saturday evening into Monday. Winds will be light on Monday night with mostly clear skies, so low wind chills not much of a factor that night but the air temperature will still fall into low teens to mid 20s. Cold temperatures prevail throughout the week with most locations continuing to see freezing temperatures overnight (20s/30s) and highs in the 40s/50s. Additionally, we are looking at another frontal passage around midweek as well, but for now our eyes remain firmly pointed at Friday's front. By now, you should have a firm grasp on why the forecast is what it is and why there is uncertainty. Now let's talk about how this will impact you.

How Does This Impact You? -------------------------

Brazos Valley/Piney Woods:

As we did above, we'll start with the ice potential and save the extremely cold temperature discussion for the tail-end as we really want y'all to pay attention to that aspect of the forecast too. The best potential for accumulating ice will be generally north of I-10, especially for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. This changeover to freezing rain could occur as early as Saturday morning, but is most likely Saturday afternoon. Something to note is that the initial rain before this transition to freezing rain could limit the effectiveness of the pre-treated roads. This means that hazardous travel conditions will be a concern especially for northern areas. That's not even accounting for the changeover to sleet early Sunday morning. Temperatures in the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods are also not expected to rise above freezing on Sunday afternoon, so road conditions could be hazardous Saturday afternoon through at least Monday morning. We'll have to monitor forecast trends to see if Monday's high temperatures decrease as well as that could extend these conditions. Northerly winds over icy grounds is a recipe for colder temperatures, so it wouldn't be too surprising to see a downward temperature trend. This ice may accumulate on trees and power lines as well, which may result in weather-related power outages. Be sure to have a plan in place on how to keep you and your loved ones warm if a power outage occurs.

Multiple nights of extremely cold temperatures are expected Saturday night through Monday night. Low temperatures on these nights will fall into the teens and 20s. When you factor in the northerly winds, it'll feel like near 0 for most of the area with wind chill values between 2-7 degrees on Saturday night and Sunday night. Winds will be light on Monday night, so it won't feel quite as cold but still very cold with low temperatures ranging from 12-20 degrees. It's very important that you have a plan in place and are enacting it to winterize your home. Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected. Remember that portions of this area may remain below freezing from Saturday afternoon through Tuesday. If you plan on being outdoors in the evening to early morning hours, be sure to dress in layers and protect yourself from the elements. If you would feel uncomfortable sleeping outside in this kind of weather, don't make your pets do it either. Don't forget about your plants too.

Houston Metro Area and Southward:

This portion of the area is tricky when it comes to the freezing rain aspect of the forecast. The freezing rain potential is definitely there for at least areas down and just past the I-10 corridor...even down to the coast. Since lots of uncertainty remains on how far south the freezing line gets, we'll keep this kind of general. Our main concern in this area is for elevated surfaces that freeze overnight into Sunday morning. This may create hazardous travel conditions over bridges, overpasses, and other elevated roadways, so it'll be important to check road conditions before traveling during the Saturday night to Monday morning timeframe. For Sunday afternoon, the Houston metro area may briefly rise above freezing for an hour...or the models could trend colder with accumulating ice up north and leave this area below freezing throughout the day as well. Long story short, keep up to date with the forecast for the latest information and check road conditions before hitting the roadways. The period of cold rain would be longer in this area before a potential transition to freezing rain, so again...the effectiveness of the pre-treated roads may be inhibited (mainly a concern for elevated roadways). While we're on the topic of freezing rain, we'll actually need some assistance from y'all to keep track of this potential changeover Saturday night to Sunday morning. We'll discuss a bit more on that in the early Friday morning discussion, but you should go ahead and familiarize yourself with the mPING app.

While we aren't anticipating low temperatures in the single digits in this area, it is still very important to remember that even low temperatures in the upper teens to mid 20s can be hazardous. This is especially true if you don't take the proper steps to winterize your home and insulate your pipes. Copying this sentence from the above section: Pipes may freeze and burst if not properly insulated and protected. Wind chill values on Saturday night and Sunday night will range from the upper single digits to the upper teens, so it'll still feel extremely cold outside. So again, if you plan on being outside in the evening to morning hours over the weekend into Monday, be sure to layer up and protect yourself from the cold. Don't forget about your pets and your plants as well.

Preparation Tips ----------------

There is still have plenty of time (two full days!) to prepare for the upcoming hazardous weather conditions. If you have a plan in place, you're a step ahead of the game! If you don't, now is a good time to make one. Be sure to know the hazards of heating your home especially in the event of a weather-related power outage. Ensure that generators are only used outdoors and away from windows, and make sure that you have a carbon monoxide detector (with fresh batteries) as well. Never use a gas stove to warm your home and never plug a space heater into anything other than directly into an outlet. Dress in layers (including a hat and gloves) if you plan on being outdoors during the coldest parts of the day. Make sure that your family and friends are aware of the forecast and that they have plans to stay warm as well.

Road conditions may be hazardous for multiple days in the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. Check road conditions, ensure that your gas tank is full, and that you have an emergency supply kit in your vehicle should you choose to travel.

For additional winter safety information, visit 'ready.gov' and you'll see a section titled "Winter Ready" right at the top of the page where you can find all of the information above and more. Taking a few steps now to prepare makes a big difference. Follow the motto: be prepared and stay informed.

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 515 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Main forecast issue this cycle is to manage VSBY/CIG trends through the morning. Fog has been rather variable and even trended up recently, but will not be confident we can avoid further backslides until 14/15Z and sun is high enough to encourage fog dissipation. CIGs should gradually lift through the day, even giving an opportunity for a short stretch of VFR late afternoon, before conditions degrade again overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 1215 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Light southerly to southeasterly winds will continue through the night along with scattered showers as a coastal trough remains in place through Thursday. The main marine impact of note overnight into Thursday morning will be sea fog. Water temperatures in the bays and along the immediate coast range from the upper 50s to mid 60s and dew points have already reached the low to mid 60s. Light winds and humid conditions have already resulted in the development of dense fog in the bays, so a Marine Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through Thursday morning. There is potential for another round of sea fog Thursday night into Friday morning.

A strong Arctic cold front pushes offshore late Friday night with strong northeasterly to northerly winds prevailing in its wake through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories will be needed for this period with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range and elevated seas in the 8-11 ft range. Gale force gusts cannot be ruled out. Widespread precipitation is expected late Friday into Sunday behind the front. While the precipitation type along the immediate coast is anticipated to be liquid, there are some areas along the northern and central portions of the bays that have the potential for freezing rain Saturday night into Sunday morning. Additionally, we'll monitor for the potential for another round of abnormally low water levels in the bays during low tide cycles, so be sure to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 56 63 35 / 0 10 40 80 Houston (IAH) 72 60 67 46 / 10 10 40 60 Galveston (GLS) 67 60 65 52 / 10 0 40 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday afternoon for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227- 300-313.

Extreme Cold Watch from Saturday evening through Monday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300- 313-335>338-436>439.

Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ177-178- 198>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.