textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Deeper tropical moisture will be moving back into the region today and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage should be highest across the southern half of the region.

- Let's keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

- Things begin to dry out (and temperatures warm) during the second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from the east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

On the back side of the inverted troffiness situated across south Texas and Mexico, and with a continued southerly llvl flow, deeper Gulf moisture is set to begin moving back into the upper Texas coastal waters early this morning and inland during the day. PW's should climb into the 1.9-2.2" range by the end of the day. This should bring an uptick in overall scattered shower & tstm coverage to the region today...and a bit moreso this weekend as the tropical airmass remains in place. Precip should mainly be diurnally driven (increasing development offshore and near the coast late at night and morning then transitioning inland during the day and early evening). Not everyone will see rain, and those that do it's not currently looking like a whole-day affair. But those with outdoor plans should plan for some intermittent alternatives. Temps should be a touch below what we've seen the last several days considering more cloudiness & scattered rain.

Ridge currently centered off the SoCal coast will strengthen and track across the Rockies and into the nctl US later this weekend into early next week. Weak troffiness currently seen on water vapor imagery tracking eastward across the northern Plains will eventually circle back around and under the ridge axis and toward Texas Monday and Tuesday. This should further enhance precip coverage those days. We'll probably need to keep an eye out for the highest qpf during that time period as there are some hints of some weak diffluence aloft and some potentially slower storm motions.

High pressure should expand ssewd across the nctl Gulf states & southeastern states during the second half of next week and give the troffiness & deeper moisture over SE Tx a nudge westward. Wednesday should be somewhat of a transition day with lower, but still scattered, precip chances. Thursday and Friday we should be back to our beloved SE TX wx with warmer temps and just some isolated daily rain chances.

LDavis/47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 620 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Isolated to widely scattered showers are seen moving into sites KGLS and KLBX. A few strikes have been seen in these cells, but latest satellite and radar trends have shower weaker storms. The main concern for this TAF period is the potential for showers and thunderstorms later this morning and afternoon. Uncertainty remains about the timing and coverage of showers and storms. For example, the latest HRRR runs have backed off on scattered shower development while the WRF models show scattered to numerous showers and storms late this morning and into the afternoon. The main change with this cycle was to add TEMPOs/PROB30s to our southern TAF sites for the morning time period for thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains high with this forecast and PROB30s were maintained for the afternoon round of storms.

MARINE

Issued at 1257 AM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

A continued 10-15kt onshore flow will persist with 2-4ft seas today into next week. The primary marine concern will be for late night through early afternoon storms this weekend. More numerous activity is anticipated Sunday night through and Tuesday. Widespread severe weather is not anticipated, though gusts to ~35kt and locally higher seas are possible in and near any isolated more intense cells.

LDavis/47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 94 77 93 76 / 30 20 30 10 Houston (IAH) 93 78 92 77 / 40 20 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 84 90 83 / 40 30 30 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.