textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to occasionally numerous showers and storms are expected today and Saturday.

- High rainfall rates will result in minor flooding of poor drainage areas as well as a risk for isolated flash flooding.

- Look for increasing winds/seas/rip current risk along the coast starting today through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

A weak southern stream upper low remains to the west of the Big Bend today, while at the surface high pressure remains over the Southeast CONUS. Veering flow from easterly/southeasterly at the surface to southwesterly aloft is present, with deep layer moist onshore flow. Convergence between east winds associated with high pressure over our eastern counties and southeasterly to southerly winds elsewhere has resulted in some heavier rain bands this morning. This convergence will weaken later in the day, but daytime heating will continue to result in additional shower and thunderstorm development. Upper-level divergence will also be present downstream of the upper low. PWATs are in the 2 to 2.2 inch range with saturated profiles, weak lapse rates aloft, and a deep warm cloud layer. This will continue to favor high rainfall rates with quick amounts of 1-3", with isolated 4"+ amounts per HREF max values. Minor flooding of poor drainage areas is expected with a risk for at least isolated flash flooding, and WPC has expanded the slight risk of excessive rainfall eastward with the morning update. Activity should diminish this evening, though rain chances will persist in portions of the Brazos Valley where remnants of upstream convection may move in overnight.

The upper low will move slowly northeastward across West Texas on Saturday and begin to open up into a wave as it moves to the Central Plains on Sunday. There will be less convergence on Saturday as high pressure moves to the east, and mid-level flow will be a bit stronger helping cells to move a little more. However, there will be little change in air mass and unidirectional flow will continue to be favorable for training convection. Therefore, expect another day of high rain chances Saturday with a continued risk for locally heavy rainfall. Heights begin to rise Sunday as the shortwave lifts northward with mid- levels beginning to dry out. This will begin to decrease the coverage of showers and storms, but PWATs will remain above normal.

Subtropical ridging will strengthen over the Gulf and southern CONUS next week. This will result in showers and storms becoming more isolated as PWATs trend closer to normal. Temperatures will also begin to warm up, with heat indices mainly in the 100-107 range. A few locations may begin to approach 108 heat indices late in the period.

JDavis

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 646 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity is in the process of ending for the evening. Still have a few showers near LBX, but even these should dissipate before sunset. VFR conditions with SCT to BKN mid-level clouds will continue through the evening, but with light winds and moist grounds, I am expected MVFR conditions to begin to emerge around 4-6z with widespread MVFR conditions beginning around 9-11z with CIGs around 1000ft. Cannot out rule some periods of IFR conditions with CIGs down to 700-800ft. These clouds will begin to scatter out through the late morning with VFR conditions returning by 17-19z.

Additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected tomorrow. The first round of storms may develop as early as sunrise, and then additional pop-up thunderstorms are expected through the afternoon and into the evening (similar to today). Exact locations of the thunderstorms are unknown at this time, so have predominately gone with VCSH with PROB30 of TS for most terminals.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1209 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Winds will increase to 15 to 20 knots Saturday night into Sunday, which will probably necessitate caution flags. Due to the prolonged SE to E winds, additional water will be piling up at the east/south facing shores. Rip current risk will steadily increase through the weekend and into the early parts of next week. Coastal flooding does not seem to be a concern right now but a few of the lowest lying spots may see water during high tide.

JDavis

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 73 85 74 87 / 50 70 20 50 Houston (IAH) 75 87 76 89 / 20 80 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 80 87 82 88 / 20 30 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.