textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog, some locally dense are expected through early this morning. Drive with caution and be sure to slow down if you encounter fog.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small hail are the main hazards, while a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- After a weak cold front passes, conditions will turn drier and warmer Monday and continuing into the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

We continue to monitor the potential for strong to severe thunderstorms to impact the area later this afternoon into the evening hours. Current satellite observations show cloud cover becoming a little more broken over the last few hours (though most locations still have overcast skies). We haven't had a lot of significant warming this morning; however, if the trend of diminishing cloud cover continues over the next few hours, that could certainly change. Dew points are not incredibly impressive at this time, but not anything to brush off (most of the area in the mid to upper 60s with dew points).

All that to say, the severe weather threat is certainly still there, and the next couple of hours will be pretty telling as to how later today may play out.

The main line of storms is anticipated to arrive to the Brazos Valley around 3 PM (give or take an hour or two). Storms will continue to push SE through the region, reaching the Houston Metro around 6 PM...again, give or take a couple of hours. Activity should be off the coast by around 10 or 11 PM. The HRRR initialized pretty well with this morning's activity, so have opted to use that as a baseline for timing of storms for today.

Now, getting into the atmospheric setup for today...Mesoanalysis still shows decent mid-level lapse rates (around 7.5 C/km) for the area, which, coupled with decent CAPE (around 1500 J/kg) creates the potential for damaging hail (SPC currently has the majority of SE Texas in a 5-14% chance for hail). Downdraft CAPE approaches 1000 J/kg, giving the potential for damaging winds...and with the primary mode of convection being in the form of a squall line, could certainly see damaging winds along the leading edge of the line.

Additionally, SRH values are on the elevated side, with 0-1 km SRH in excess of 150 m^2/s^2 and 0-3km in excess of 200 m^2/s^2...which means the environment ahead of the front is a little on the spinny side...and as mentioned in the SPS convective discussion, QLCS tornadoes (tornadoes embedded within the squall line) cannot be ruled out.

At this time, the primary threat appears to be the potential for damaging winds (15-20% chance for north and east of a line from Columbus to Freeport)...further SW that threat is lower (5-14%). Secondary threats would be the potential for damaging hail and brief spin ups.

Please make sure to have multiple ways to receive alerts and pay attention to forecast updates as the afternoon progresses.

Once the front moves offshore skies will clear from west to east overnight. Cloudy skies may return for Sunday morning with wraparound moisture. Breezy northerly winds will follow from behind the front, leaving a cooler and drier day for Sunday. Highs will be in the 60s to mid 70s with dew points in the low 50s).

Ridging will build in and persist through most of the work week. SW flow will bring warmer 850 mb temperatures, which will create warmer than normal temperatures at the surface. Expect highs to reach into the low to mid 80s by the end of the long term period.

While a little far into the forecast period to get too caught up in details, there is another slight chance of rain for next weekend in association with another shortwave trough; however, not high enough of a probability to warrant more than a brief mention at this time.

Bailey/Kinard

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A mixed bag of IFR, MVFR, VFR ceilings and visibilities this morning. By the late morning hours, ceilings will be predominantly in the MVFR range as coverage of rain showers gradually increases from west to east. Southeasterly to southerly winds will be on the gusty side through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kt at times. Ceilings remain either near MVFR or borderline MVFR through the afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, but chances for thunderstorms increases in the late afternoon through the evening hours as a line of storms develops along a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with the potential to bring strong wind gusts. The timing of these storms have been captured by the TEMPO groups.

In the wake of the front, there are some hints in the model guidance for a brief window of reduced ceilings and visibilities late tonight into early Sunday morning. There may be a brief lift to VFR for some locations followed by wraparound cloud cover bringing another period of MVFR clouds for northern terminals going into the mid-morning hours. Winds will initially be westerly behind the front and becoming northwesterly by Sunday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1234 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next disturbance and associated cold front. Expect increasing rain and storm chances from early this morning, with the highest probabilities late this afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms will be possible with brief heavy rain, damaging winds as the main threats. Small hail and waterspouts are also possible. Elevated winds and building seas up to 7 ft are also expected.Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued at some point this morning and will likely continue through late Sunday. Moderate to occasional offshore winds can be expected in the wake of the front on Sunday. Drier conditions and light onshore winds return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 55 69 48 / 100 70 0 0 Houston (IAH) 76 58 71 53 / 90 90 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 59 69 57 / 60 90 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.