textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Few storms may clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area early today... cannot fully rule out a stronger storm or two.

- Low but non-zero chance of a strong to severe storm this afternoon and evening.

- Above normal temperatures in the 80s/mid 90s and isolated daily rain chances continue through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Much like yesterday, we're once again keeping a close eye on ongoing convection over north-central/northeast Texas early this morning. Outflow from these storms has the potential to once again clip the northern zones of our CWA early this morning. Guidance still wants these storms to peter our before reaching us... though given how one storm managed to hold together and reach Houston county yesterday morning, I would be skeptical putting complete trust into the deterministic solutions of the CAMs. These CAMs are also showing sparse coverage in the afternoon, and while I don't doubt that the afternoon should likely be largely quiet for most of the area, I still don't want to fully exclude the possibility of a stronger storm or two. Again, the environment should be primed with SFC CAPE around 1700-3500 J/KG and 6km shear around 35-40 knots. Steep midlevel lapse rates of 7.5-8.5 DegC/km are progged for the afternoon, suggesting the potential for large hail. We still have strong capping around 850mb, even a tad stronger than that of yesterday. Though once again, if a storm can mange to pull itself together, then it could be fairly potent, thus we'll continue to monitor the severe weather threat closely.

For next week, a shortwave trough is still expected to fill northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and impulses to move over SE Texas. Expect rising rain chances through late next week. Around Friday, another mid/upper level shortwave trough will move through Texas, pushing a more robust cold front through the area. Should see more widespread showers and storms throughout the FROPA. Breezy conditions set in on Saturday as cooler & drier air fill in behind the front.

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026

Widespread MVFR conditions will prevail through at least the late morning hours. Low-level moisture is higher today than the previous days, which gives a higher potential for MVFR ceilings to linger later in the day for terminals south of I-10. This increased moisture may also lead to spotty rain showers throughout the day and potentially an isolated storm or two in the afternoon. This potential is too low to mention it in any of the TAFs so far. Expect southeasterly winds around 10-15 kt with occasional gusts around 20-25 kt through the afternoon. Widespread MVFR/IFR ceilings expected again this evening into Monday morning. Winds remain elevated overnight, so not anticipating much if any areas of reduced visibilities due to fog. Cloud ceilings are expected to be the main impact for this forecast period.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 25 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the next several days. Elevated water levels around 2.5 to 3.0 feet above MLLW are still expected at each high tide cycle through early next week. A slight increase in winds and seas are expected beginning around Tuesday next week. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day with higher rain chances Wednesday though the end of the next work week. A modest cold front could bring moderate to strong offshore winds Friday night into next weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 73 91 73 / 20 0 20 10 Houston (IAH) 90 74 90 74 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 75 84 75 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.