textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- The workweek will begin with some lingering showers and slightly cooler than normal conditions.

- Drier and milder weather returns through the middle of this week with only 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rainfall likely through next weekend.

- Some temperature maximums could reach the 90-degree mark by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

Aloft, troughing will continue to carry remnant convection (and the attendant frontal boundary) further offshore through the rest of the day on Monday. After it does so, northwesterly flow will briefly ensue across southeast Texas. Ridging will shift from the Intermountain West across West Texas by Wednesday, displacing northwest flow and reintroducing onshore southerly winds through the rest of the week into the weekend. This will set the stage for a gradual warmup into the latter half of the week. Medium-range guidance suggests the center of the ridge axis to be across East Texas by that time with a 60-70% chance of temperature maximums reaching the 90-degree mark across most areas north of the I-10 corridor.

By the end of the workweek, the 70-degree isodrosotherm makes its return further inland on southerly winds that also gain speed to near 10 mph. Long-range guidance still very gradually tries to re- introduce some rain chances into next weekend, however, forecast confidence remains low at this range due to the variation in the strength of the ridge that is yet to be resolved. WPC Day 1-7 QPF values remain lower as a result, ranging at 0.5-1.5 inches with the bulk of that total coming in the next 24 hours.

Cassel

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 512 PM CDT Sun May 10 2026

Breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will persist over the next few hours before trending to become light and variable later this evening as a frontal boundary and associated showers/storms approach. Ahead of the front, a brief period of MVFR to IFR ceilings is expected to spread inland from south to north. GLS is already experiencing intermittent MVFR ceilings as of 22Z/Sunday. Some scattered showers have already begun to develop around CXO and northward late this afternoon. The main line of storms will begin to push through CLL/UTS just after 00Z, then into the Houston metro area terminals around 06Z, and off the coast around 10Z. Some of these storms may be strong to severe and capable of producing strong winds and hail. The timing of these storms has been covered by TEMPOs in all of the TAFs. The line is anticipated to become increasingly broken up as it makes its way towards the coast, so there's higher potential for strong winds at the northern terminals along the line.

Behind the front/storms,another brief period of MVFR ceilings is expected mainly for CXO and northward through the mid-morning hours of Monday. Northerly to northeasterly winds between 10-15 kt will prevail throughout the day Monday with widespread VFR conditions expected by 17Z.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1234 AM CDT Mon May 11 2026

As of 12:30 AM CDT, a line of strong thunderstorms (some severe) are about 40-60 miles from shore and will emerge offshore later this Monday morning, producing some moderate northerly winds. As the storms abate through the day today, post-frontal northerly winds will remain through the rest of the day before veering back onshore by Wednesday through the rest of the drier and milder workweek ahead. All post-frontal winds are expected to remain below the threshold requiring issuance of a Small Craft Advisory at this time.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 78 64 81 65 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 82 68 85 70 / 30 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 72 81 74 / 30 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.