textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gusty onshore winds are occurring. This will make for some rough marine conditions on area bays and coastal Gulf waters, where a small craft advisory is in effect. It will also bring in warmer and more humid air to the area in advance of our next shot of rain and storms.

- Those rain chances will creep back into the forecast with possible showers overnight into this morning, but peak ahead of and along our next next cold front tonight. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. We can expect to see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing to a portion of the area, most likely north of the Houston metro.

..and winds do veer with height

typically in low CAPE/high shear environments we could get organized storms that could produce damaging winds, hail, and brief tornadoes.

Timing of main line of storms has slowed down by a few hours with the latest guidance. While showers and storms will be ongoing out ahead of the front, the front itself is not expected to arrive to the Brazos Valley until around 9 PM (give or take a couple hours). It is expected to push offshore around 3 AM (again, give or take a couple hours).

A drastic change in temperatures will occur behind the front Saturday into Sunday as strong CAA brings a chilly and dry airmass in the area. Highs for Sunday through Tuesday will struggle to get out of the 50s for most of the area, with some locations in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods struggling to even get into the 50s. Overnight lows will be on the chilly side Sunday night through Tuesday night as temperatures drop into the 30s and 40s.

We will need to continue to monitor the potential for some locations to get into freezing temperatures Monday night for rural areas to the west of the metro and locations to the north of the metro.

Onshore flow returns on Tuesday, which won't do much to bring daytime temperatures out of the 50s, it will put a damper on the potential for freezing temperatures that night. Onshore flow will precede the next front later in the week next week.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 AM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Ceilings will mostly be in VFR territory for most of the day, albeit lowering into the evening as Gulf moisture continues to fill the lower levels of the atmos. SE winds will again become somewhat breezy heading into the late morning and afternoon hours with gusts >20kt at times. Isolated-scattered showers/storms are possible with some heating (mostly north of I-10) in the 20-02z timeframe. A few could briefly pulse up to strong levels. Better shower/storm chances occur overnight as a cold front moves into the region with a congealing band of precip ahead of it. Some of the embedded storms could again be strong. Threat of the heaviest downpours and reduced vsby looks like it may impact the metro & coastal terminals between 6-12z. Behind the front, rain will taper off, but leave us with IFR ceilings and gusty north winds. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1011 PM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

mall Craft Advisories are in effect for all waters as moderate to strong southeasterly winds and building seas continue. Shower and thunderstorm chances increase ahead of a strong cold front that should be pushing off the coast after midnight, around 2am, and across the Gulf waters through the late night and early Sunday morning hours. A few storms may be on the stronger side. Moderate to strong offshore flow and elevated seas will persist in the wake of the front. An upper level disturbance is forecast to push overhead Sunday night and Monday bringing another chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms to the waters.

At the coast, stronger onshore winds will push tidal levels above astronomical norms, but for now appear to stay below 3 feet above MLLW, which should largely preclude any coastal flooding issues. The strength of the onshore winds will be more effective in generating dangerous rip currents at Gulf-facing beaches, and a rip current statement is in place for that danger.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 74 41 50 42 / 60 80 10 30 Houston (IAH) 76 49 55 44 / 40 90 40 30 Galveston (GLS) 76 58 60 52 / 30 90 70 40

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.