textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected through the night and into Thursday morning. A Gale Warning is in effect on coastal Gulf waters, and a small craft advisory on area bays.

- Breezy conditions will also be seen near the coast, and a wind advisory is also in place for all islands and peninsulas beyond the intracoastal waterway, as well as across Jackson, Wharton, and Matagorda Counties. These strong north winds may pose a hazard to high profile vehicles traveling east-west, and blow about light, unsecured outdoor objects.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend, followed by another cooldown after the arrival of a strong cold front Sunday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Storms and rain are finished late this evening across Southeast Texas, and the lead front (or pre-frontal trough, difficult to say precisely) is off the coast, having turned winds northerly. A more impressive front is making its way through Southeast Texas, and those northerly winds are becoming strong and gusty. As of 11pm, Brenham leads the way with gusts to 29 mph.

Gusts in excess of 25 mph can be expected across the area, with gusts up into the 30s in the more open prairie areas west of the Houston metro. A wind advisory is in place through the night for everything beyond the intracoastal waterway, with a particularly emphasis on the stretches downwind of Matagorda and Galveston bays, thanks to the lower friction of the open water. The wind advisory does also stretch inland a bit to cover the remainder of Matagorda County, as well as Wharton and Jackson counties. In these locations, sustained winds look to peak around 25 mph, with gusts above 35 mph.

Gusty north winds ushering in drier conditions naturally invites fire weather questions, and it will indeed be a breezy, dry day on Thursday. There is a bit of nuance to that, and some help from fuels conditions, though - more on that in the fire weather section below.

Thursday should be pleasantly cool - below seasonal averages, but not drastically so, plus plenty of sun to help take the edge off the breeze. The next couple of nights should also be quite crisp and refreshing...maybe even a little too much so if you're more a fan of the warmer weather. The chilliest spots up north may manage to briefly slip into the upper 30s in the pre-dawn hours Thursday night into Friday morning. The NBM paints a swath of 30-40 percent probability for that. Given the clear sky, winds becoming light tomorrow night, and dry air locked into place...those probabilities seem lower than a true probability. For most of us, though, it's a pretty solid bet that we wind up somewhere in the 40s, and those right on the Gulf will still struggle to fall below 50 degrees, in spite of the chilly situation.

Onshore winds look to return on Friday, so this dip in temps will be somewhat temporary, as warmer and eventually more humid conditions come back for the weekend. This shouldn't be a repeat of the almost summer-like nights we've seen of late, and before we can get there, another cold front looks to swing through Sunday night. We'll build back some moisture with the onshore flow, so there should be some amount of showers and thunderstorms that can be squeezed out. However, with precipitable water only progged to get back into the 50th to 75th percentile per the LREF ensemble, it will be a muted event compared to what we experienced earlier today. For now, I have PoPs restricted to areas around and east of I-45, where moisture looks to be deepest before the front arrives.

With the passage of another front, the cycle begins anew - some below average temperatures to begin the new week, with gradual warming to modestly above average temperatures mid to late week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 623 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Expect MVFR to VFR conditions with isolated showers and thunderstorms as a second cold front passes through SE Texas this evening. Chance for rain ends and skies will be lifting and clearing just before 05Z tonight as drier air moves into the region. Winds tonight into 12Z Thu will be NW-N around 16-22 KTS with gusts of 24-30 KTS inland and 20-30 KTS with gusts up of 25-35 KTS along the coasts. There is the potential for LLVL Wind Shear during the overnight hours, which may be added to the 06Z TAF issuance. From around 12Z-18Z, expect N-NE winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts up to 25 KTS inland, slightly stronger along the coasts. Winds will begin to relax after 18Z, with calm VRB winds expected Thu night.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A cold front has moved through the area and strong, gusty winds are beginning to build in its wake across Southeast Texas and the coastal waters. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the coastal Gulf waters, and near gale conditions can even be expected into the lower portions of the bays.

Conditions will gradually improve through Thursday, with quicker improvement on the lower waters than the upper waters. A small craft advisory will be in place following the end of gale conditions into the afternoon, with continued relaxation in winds into Thursday evening. Relatively tranquil conditions are expected by week's end, with onshore flow returning on Friday.

At the coast, the strong offshore winds will help drive negative tide levels at low tide early Thursday morning. Though very near the threshold for a low water advisory, water levels should remain high enough that such an advisory will not be needed. With winds diminishing Thursday and turning back onshore Friday, there will likely be only one negative tide cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1122 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Windier and much drier conditions are building into the area following a frontal passage. Wind gusts tonight are expected to reach 25 to 30 mph, and closer to 35 mph in the open prairies north of Matagorda Bay and west of the Houston metro. Winds will decrease through the day Thursday, which will be one helpful factor in mitigating the fire environment. Once the driest conditions of the day begin with RH values dropping into the 30 to 35 percent range, winds should be falling below 10 mph with gusts into the lower to middle teens. Also helping conditions will be the recent amount of moisture across the area, keeping fuels in manageable conditions. TAMFS data shows ERC values are around or below the 50th percentile across the area and low to moderate fire danger in spite of the dry air moving in.

Friday also looks fairly dry, but light winds will be switching back to southeasterly, resulting in rising RH values through the weekend. Another surge of dry air can be expected early in the new week after another frontal passage on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 65 41 75 / 60 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 49 66 46 75 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 65 57 69 / 30 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 7 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ235-236-335-336- 436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Gale Warning until 7 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ350- 370.

Gale Warning until 10 AM CDT Thursday for GMZ355-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 4 PM CDT Thursday for GMZ355- 375.