textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated strong to severe storms will be possible over the area this afternoon and evening... possibly overnight too.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching into the upper 80s to lower 90s by this weekend.

- Above normal temperatures continue during the early to middle part of next week, with at least isolated showers and thunderstorms possible over portions of the region each day.

UPDATE

Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

The Storm Prediction Center has updated their Day 1 severe weather outlook to now include portions of Houston, Trinity, and Polk counties in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) of severe weather for today. We will be monitoring the development of a MCS (line of strong to severe storms) around NE Texas/SW Arkansas later this afternoon. Depending on how far westward it extends and how long it holds together, it could pose a large hail and damaging wind threat for portions of the Piney Woods this evening. Continue to monitor the forecast for updates and be sure to remain weather aware.

Batiste

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Warm and potentially active weather is still expected today. Zonal mid level flow will be in place over the area with SFC CAPE from around 1700-3500 J/KG and 500mb shear around 30-45 knots. Several disturbances & impulses are expected to pass through the southern Plains, some of which may pass through SE Texas this afternoon to tap into this favorable instability. Upper levels are also showing a strong diffluent right over the ArkLaTex area around this time period as well, in tandem with a surface trough & dry line spanning from around the Red River Valley to near Del Rio. Forecast soundings show some drier air between 850mb-500mb, though weak capping and steep midlevel lapse rates of 8.0-8.7 DegC/km should more than enough to make up for that, with particularly deep CAPE in the hail growth zone as well. CAMs don't show particularly extensive coverage in storms over our area, though given the environment it is entirely possible that this is being underdone.

SPC has SE Texas under a Marginal (level 1/5) Risk of severe weather for Today. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main severe weather concerns. Extra emphasis on the hail, as SPC also has portions of the the Brazos Vally/Piney Woods areas denoted for hail intensity of CIG 1, suggesting greater potential for 2-inch size hail. Time wise, these severe storms could develop during the afternoon and evening. Additionally, we'll need to keep and eye over our north/northeast zones as well, as forecast models are also showing a MCS developing over northeast Texas/ArkLaTex in the evening. While CAM guidance thinks these storms should dissipate before entering our CWA, it is certainly possible that this convective systems holds together long enough to clip portions of Texas overnight, as we've seen in other patterns with some component of northwest flow in the upper levels.

Saturday is shaping up to see broadly similar conditions to Friday. Some northern displacement in forcing features aloft should prove less favorable for severe weather, though it won't outright remove the threat. Previous convection, outflow, and mesoscale interactions from the day prior will likely modify the potential for showers/storms & severe wx as well. Regardless, it's worth keeping a close eye on too. Sunday continues to see this broader trend of lowering PoPs and a northeasterly shift in the main risk area for severe weather. While rather far removed on Sunday and even more so on Monday, these days will still feature fairly potent conditions for severe weather. Even in spite of low pops, we'll still be keeping an eye out for any rogue impulses or shortwaves that could jump start more potent wx, especially during those afternoons.

For next week, a much more robust shortwave trough is still expected to fill northeast across the Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. This front should slow and stall around the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, though some isolated showers and storms are still in play for our northern zones. A subtropical mid-level high then builds in from the south on Tuesday, establishing more zonal flow aloft and allowing for another series of shortwaves and impulses to move over SE Texas. Anticipate daily rain chances through late next week.

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 534 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings will continue through late this morning before lifting back to VFR around 18Z. MVFR ceilings may linger into the afternoon along the coast. Visibility restrictions have been limited overnight due to elevated southerly winds. Winds will be southerly around 10 kt late this morning and into the afternoon before becoming light and variable overnight into Saturday morning. Isolated showers and storms will be possible later this afternoon/evening, but the potential is too low to warrant putting it in any of the TAFs at this time. Due to the lighter winds, there is a bit more confidence in IFR ceilings developing along with reduced visibilities due to patchy fog overnight into Saturday morning. At least widespread MVFR ceilings will filter in from south to north again overnight.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Fri Apr 24 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the next several days. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day through the weekend. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end of the work week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 86 70 89 71 / 20 10 20 20 Houston (IAH) 86 72 89 73 / 20 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 81 74 83 74 / 10 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.