textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of the area today. Temperatures should remain above normal for most of the week.

- Diurnally driven isolated thunderstorms possible this week; mainly locations closer to the coast.

- Increased winds, seas, rain chances in the marine waters late Wednesday into late Thursday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Looking for some scattered shower/storm development near the Matagorda Bay area this morning...eventually expanding northward and eastward as we get some heating today. Better chances/coverage should generally be southwest of a Brenham-Galveston line, but going to throw in 20% POPs across the majority of the area as guidance continues to under-perform in terms of its northward extent in the late afternoon and early evening. Will maintain the Heat Advisory again today, though am expecting the 107-110F heat indices probably just for a limited duration.

Otherwise, center of mid-upper ridging should continue tracking ewd into the Tennessee Valley into midweek. Subsidence should limit, but not completely eliminate, rain chances Tue-Wed. During the second half of the work week, the ridge gets a nudge back into Texas as a trof (and eventual cutoff low) digs down the east coast; across Florida and into the eastern and central Gulf. With one exception, overall rain chances will probably remain on the low side for most of the region with the return of better subsidence during the second part of the work week.

That one exception will probably be in the Wednesday night-Thursday night timeframe. Surface ridging to the north and an easterly wave tracking across the Yucatan will produce a moderate easterly fetch across the Gulf and drive some higher PW air our way. Most of this moisture and higher rain chances will mostly be confined across southern parts of the CWA...and especially offshore.

This weekend, the more unsettled wx should remain across the eastern half off the Gulf Coast (on the east side of the cutoff low), though we could see some isolated-scattered activity on its far western outskirts closer to our eastern counties at times. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light patchy fog occurring north of I-10 this morning. KCXO currently at MVFR due to VSBYs. All other sites at VFR. Expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day. A few showers and thunderstorms may develop this morning along the coast, with activity moving inland this afternoon. Any showers and storms should taper off with loss of daytime heating. Winds will generally be light out of the south through the day today, transitioning to light and variable overnight.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1220 AM CDT Mon Sep 14 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and 2-3 foot seas will prevail for the next couple days. Look for some late night through early afternoon isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. Look for increasing easterly winds, building seas (4-6ft), and rain chances Wednesday night into Thursday evening. Caution or Advisory conditions could be possible. Winds and seas gradually diminish late Friday into the weekend. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 98 76 99 75 / 20 20 20 0 Houston (IAH) 94 78 94 78 / 40 20 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 83 / 30 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235>237-335.

GM...None.