textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the work week with heat index values in the 90s Thursday/Friday.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

The warming trend continues as we add on a degree or two to Wednesday's high temperatures as they peak mainly in the mid 80s. Southwesterly flow aloft continues to filter in drier air...well...aloft with model guidance still reflecting much drier air above 850mb remaining in place through at least Wednesday. This drier air aloft also comes with warmer air aloft leading to a capping inversion. There is enough low-level moisture in place beneath the cap to squeeze out sporadic light rain/sprinkles...but not expecting anything of note. The potential exception to this is for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on late Wednesday afternoon/evening. Some thunderstorms may develop out in western/central Texas along the dry line, and there is a non-zero chance that a few storms skirt near our northern counties. Especially with with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion. Unsurprisingly, the CAMs (me included) aren't that excited about anything more than showers making their way into Southeast Texas.

PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers will remain possible. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase near the 90th percentile leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the elevated low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s on Thursday and Friday. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches.

An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday afternoon/evening. Moisture convergence along the front leads to PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Some of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates likely peaking in the 2-3+"/hr range. These storms will be more progressive than what we experienced over the past weekend, but these high rainfall rates could lead to localized instances of flooding especially in low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Saturday. Showers may linger into Sunday morning until the drier air fully filters in. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday. A coastal Wind Advisory is possible.

Since we are catching the tail-end of this front, surface high pressure looks to quickly move out to the east on Monday. There is some variance on exactly how quickly this occurs, but the general trend is for low-level moisture to begin to increase on Monday. This pairs with an embedded shortwave trough passing through the region, which brings us another chance of showers and storms.

Don't worry, we won't end this discussion talking about rain chances! Let's take a look at probabilistic guidance for post-FROPA temperatures once again as you're gonna want to hear this! If you've been keeping up with the AFD's over the past few nights (first of all thank you for being dedicated...you're the real MVP), then you know the probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees on Sunday and Monday were already fairly high. Whelp...they got even higher! The probability for high temperatures below 80 degrees is now 85-100% areawide for Sunday and Monday! Probabilities gradually trend down beyond that, but still remain in the 60-90% range for Tuesday. But wait, there's more!

The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees has increased to 70-90% for areas north of the Houston metro area and 30-50% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities peak in the 60-90% range areawide (except along the coast)...and again they gradually trend downward Monday night but they are still generally in the 50-90% range. While the probabilities are trending higher for cooler temperatures behind the upcoming cold front, it's important to keep in mind that there's still plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve. Don't worry, that won't stop me from getting excited either! :D

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 AM CDT Wed Apr 15 2026

MVFR CIGs and sparse pockets of IFR should lift and eventually clear out later this morning. VFR conditions return by the early afternoon with gusty south to southeasterly winds prevailing throughout the day, later tapering off in the evening. MVFR CIGs fill in again overnight with IFR CIGs possible early Thursday morning.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Moderate onshore flow will persist into at least midweek, so small craft should exercise caution through at least Wednesday. There will be intermittent periods towards the end of the work week where winds increase near the caution flag threshold again. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. This could result in some wave run-up along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories going into early next week.

Batiste

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1050 PM CDT Tue Apr 14 2026

Still monitoring a couple of gauges that are currently cresting in action stage (as of Tuesday evening) in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) and at Strane Park (LSNT2) are currently cresting in action stage and are expected to fall out of it by Wednesday morning. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 85 69 88 69 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 85 71 87 71 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 74 80 74 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.