textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered seabreeze activity continuing this afternoon as well as a Marginal Risk of severe storms for the northern half of the region due to strong winds moving in from the northeast possible late this afternoon/evening.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

- Shower/storm chances increase going into the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1255 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

More robust seabreeze shower/storm activity today, with the early afternoon activity favoring the southwestern portions of the region near Matagorda Bay. Isolated to scattered activity will continue through the afternoon. Showers and storms blossoming across northeast TX along a southward propagating boundary will continue to push south throughout the afternoon towards the northern fringes of the CWA. This area is a focal point for severe weather potential due to robust instability profiles, which will tend towards a damaging wind threat. While probabilities are lower, cannot rule out this line of storms maintaining into the evening hours, thus the severe threat exists for at least the northern half of the CWA through the evening hours. The Houston metro area has lower chances for seeing the more robust activity as storms dissipate going through the evening hours, so the expectation at this point would be increasing wind gust potential in the 30-40 mph range late this evening.

The ridge axis begins to slide out to the east on Wednesday as an upper level low over the Baja Peninsula begins its trek eastward. This decrease in subsidence paired with placement into southwesterly flow aloft and PW values remaining elevated means that chances for showers/storms will continue through the work week. Shower/storm chances increase further towards the end of the work week and into the weekend as the upper level low moves in closer. The progression of the low is a little bit uncertain after it moves into northern Mexico by Friday. Most guidance takes it northeastward near the Texas Panhandle, but from there guidance is split on if it lingers or if it continues northeastward. Either way, southwest flow aloft and PW values over 2" does equal increased rain chances. The peak of this moisture looks to occur Friday into Saturday with PW values potentially nearing 2.2-2.4". This deeper tropical moisture would be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, so it's not a surprise that most of Southeast Texas is already in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Friday. Parts of the area will likely be outlooked for the weekend as well as we get closer to the weekend. The good news about the increased rain chances is that this means we'll have slightly lower daytime temperatures. We'll trade out the early week high temperatures in the low 90s for high temperatures in the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

Young/Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 PM CDT Tue Jun 2 2026

A line of storms is progressing southwards through the region, currently passing through UTS/CLL and will be passing through IAH between 1-2z, and then HOU between 2-3z. This line will bring gusty winds (up to 30kt) and locally heavy rainfall reducing visibility down to around 1-2mi. This line is expected to weaken as it pushes southwards and may only result in a broken line of showers by the time it gets the coast. Showers are expected to linger a few hours behind the storms passage.

VFR conditions will generally prevail through the period, but a period of low-end MVFR CIGs (1000-1500ft) may develop late tonight into sunrise on Wednesday before scattering out. Increasing moisture and daytime heating may lead to scattered afternoon showers and storms along the coast extending up towards IAH. Exact locations of the pop-up storms are unknown, so have kept limited the mention to PROB30s. East to southeasterly winds around 5-10kt will prevail through the period.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1132 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through this evening. A weak frontal boundary approaches the waters late this evening leading to a transition to easterly winds. Cannot entirely rule a band of showers/storms in association with this boundary pushing offshore with potential for gusty winds. Winds transition back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night into Thursday with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily, but expect these chances to increase towards the end of the work week.

Young/Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 73 87 72 85 / 50 30 20 60 Houston (IAH) 74 87 73 85 / 50 50 40 80 Galveston (GLS) 79 86 78 86 / 40 50 60 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.