textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm weather expected throughout the work week.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in humidity, temperatures and cloud cover (mainly overnight), eventually for some spotty/isolated, diurnally-driven showers/storms trough the weekend. Best rain and storm chances arrive next Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Ridging over the Rockies/Four Corners should keep benign weather in place over the next few days. Patchy fog will be possible in the hours leading up to sunrise. Lows this morning will mostly be in the 60s across the area with isolated upper 50s possible in the Piney Woods area and lower 70s possible along the coast. Winds should generally be light and sea breeze-land breeze drive, slowly transitioning to a more steady onshore flow as surface high pressure pushes east of the region.

The Mid/upper level ridge should pass over SE Texas on Thursday. The ridge itself will begin to flatten from several impulses and disturbances pushing into it from the west. Morning lows for Thursday should be warmer than the previous day, climbing to the 60s/lower 70s due to steady onshore flow. Patchy fog will still be possible during the early morning hours, especially in areas south of I-10 & west of I-45. Afternoon high temperatures will be fairly similar to the previous day, generally in the 80s with isolated lower 90s.

By Friday the upper level ridge will have pushed off to the east with midlevel heights falling over SE Texas. Subsidence is reduced, thus highs should see a slight dip through the weekend, though only by around 2-4 degrees or so. Meanwhile, onshore flow will remain uninterrupted, thus moisture will continue to increase. This should result in low temperatures climbing into the 70s area-wide during the weekend. Rising moisture will also introduce some isolated rain chances throughout this time frame as vorticity impulses stream over the region, especially by Sunday.

On Monday, a mid/upper level trough will push into the Great Basin with a shortwave trough over Baja California. These features are progged to send ample shortwave energy to SE Texas, providing plenty of lift in addition to strengthening onshore flow. PWs could climb to around 1.6-2.0" early next week. Overall this pattern looks particularly favorable for rainfall, so we should see a far amount of showers/thunderstorms early in the week. The aforementioned upper level trough is anticipated to fill northeast into Tuesday, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. Presently, this front is anticipated to stall out before reaching SE Texas, though scattered showers and storms will remain a daily possibility through mid week.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 13 2026

Patchy fog currently affecting LBX/CXO and is expected to burn off by around 15Z. VFR conditions expected for the rest of the TAF period over SE TX. Winds will be generally light from the N-NE, becoming E-SE briefly in the later afternoon to early evening. Light VRB winds expected for Wed night. Localized patchy fog may once again develop over portions of SE TX Wed night into early Thu morning.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1134 PM CDT Tue May 12 2026

Mostly sea-landbreeze driven winds are expected through Thursday morning. Afterwards, the pressure gradient will tighten while steady onshore flow develops. Moderate onshore winds and rising rain chances are anticipated Friday through the weekend, likely prompting caution flags at least. Increasing seas of 3-5 feet are expected as well, along with a growing risk of rip currents across Gulf-facing beaches Friday into the weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 89 65 89 68 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 90 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 85 73 84 75 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.