textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cooler, drier conditions persist over the next couple of days with tonight into Friday morning being our coolest night in over two weeks.

- A gradual warming trend is expected Friday into the weekend, followed by another cooldown after the arrival of a strong cold front with accompanying showers/storms late Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (8-12 ft), and potential for negative tides.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Be honest with me here...on a scale of 1-10, how happy were y'all when you stepped out the door this morning?! Instead of the mugginess that we've felt over the past week or so, it felt fantastic! It was a 15/10 for me! The best part is that this won't be a one cool night and we're back to the pain...we have multiple cool nights in store. A warming trend through the weekend temporarily puts us back into muggy territory, but another cold front on Sunday puts a stop to that. Maybe this will temper the influx of all of these June bugs (March bugs?)! There was a 20-25 degree difference between temperatures this morning versus Wednesday morning, which is outstanding! With surface high pressure overhead and drier air prevailing, high temperatures this afternoon will top out in the low to mid 60s. The last time we had a high temperature below 70F was February 23rd, so just over two weeks ago. I know it's been in the 80s quite a bit recently, so just reminding y'all that it's still astronomical winter.

Surface high pressure remains overhead tonight leading to that perfect setup for max radiational cooling (light winds + clear skies). As a result, low temperatures tonight will be...dare I say cold?! They'll range from the upper 30s to low 40s up north and the mid 40s to the 50s around the Houston metro area and the coast. That surface high slides eastward by Friday leading to a gradual warming trend that prevails into the weekend. So, we'll March our way back into the 70s on Friday, right around the 80F mark on Saturday, and solidly in the mid to upper 80s on Sunday. Winds will gradually increase going into Saturday night as a SW-NE oriented LLJ strengthens (stretches from TX to the Upper Midwest). This is due to the pressure gradient tightening as surface low pressure begins to develop in the Central Plains in response to an upper level trough sweeping through the central CONUS.

As the surface low drifts eastward on Sunday, it will drag a cold front through southeast TX in the late afternoon/evening hours. This brings us to the interest part of the forecast. Will we see any rain with this front? Find out next time on Dragon B...oh wait. I mean the answer is...it depends. While onshore flow will return Friday night, we don't see much of a moisture increase until the front approaches. There is some model variability on exactly how much moisture will be in place ahead of and along the front, but the general consensus is for greater moisture availability east of I-45. So, that's where PoPs are the highest...and even then it's only around 30%. It is worth noting that SPC has a 15% probability of severe weather outline for us on Sunday for portions of the Piney Woods. Lift, instability, and shear will certainly be in place. Moisture is the big question mark, and that answer will become more clear once we get in range of high-res guidance. For now, just know that some of these potential storms could contain gusty winds.

There is quite LLJ in the wake of the front (50-60 kt) overnight into Monday morning, which will create quite the hazardous marine conditions (see Marine discussion) and likely a Wind Advisory for coastal areas during this timeframe. Temperatures behind the next front look even cooler than our most recent front, so I'll let y'all interpolate that one how y'all see fit. A rather robust ridge begins to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek (see CPC's temperature outlook for all the red). We'll go on a warming trend next week as well, but we won't end up as warm as it'll be out to our west. Check out the forecast for some places in Arizona next week!

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 653 AM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Gusty north winds this morning will decrease as we head towards the afternoon. Winds veer NE later today, before decreasing to light and variable by late afternoon or early evening. VFR conditions prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

Moderate northerly winds and elevated seas will continue into the afternoon hours, but they are on a gradual downward trend. Overnight, light winds will transition from northeasterly to southeasterly. Light onshore flow will prevail going into the weekend. Winds increase Saturday night into Sunday in advance of an approaching cold front and may prompt the issuance of caution flags.

A cold front pushes offshore late Sunday with showers/storms along the boundary. Expect strong northerly winds (30-35+ kt with gusts over 40 kt) and elevated seas (8-12 ft) to prevail in the wake of this front through Monday. A Gale Watch/Warning will likely be needed Sunday night into Monday. Those heading to the beaches or out on the waters for Spring Break should be advised of this period of hazardous marine conditions late Sunday into Monday. Typically inflatables are discouraged by beach patrol with offshore winds. Additionally, there will be potential for abnormally low water levels in the wake of this front early next week. Winds and seas subside going into Monday night with onshore flow returning by Tuesday.

Batiste

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Mar 12 2026

With winds continuing to decrease this afternoon, this will be a helpful factor in mitigating the fire environment. Once the driest conditions of the day begin with RH values dropping into the 30 to 35 percent range, winds should be falling below 10 mph with gusts into the lower to middle teens. Also helping conditions will be the recent amount of moisture across the area, keeping fuels in manageable conditions. TAMFS data shows ERC values are around or below the 50th percentile across the area and low to moderate fire danger in spite of the dry air moving in.

Friday also looks fairly dry, but light winds will be switching back to southeasterly, resulting in rising RH values through the weekend. Another surge of dry air can be expected early in the new week after another frontal passage on Sunday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 43 75 49 79 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 75 54 79 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 56 69 63 74 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370-375.