textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A weak cold front will push off the coast overnight/early Friday. Patchy to areas of fog expected to develop out ahead of it, especially along the coast.

- Ridging aloft builds in this weekend allowing the above normal temperature streak to continue alongside chances for patchy fog.

- A couple of frontal boundaries approach next week, but likely won't push through. One of them leads to increasing rain chances around midweek.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Pop Quiz! What's our normal high/low temperature for the end of February/early March? If you guessed upper 60s/low 70s and upper 40s/low 50s, you're correct! Just keep that in mind as we discuss temperatures throughout the forecast period because I won't even sugar coat it...it's borderline ridiculous to be this warm in "winter". Goes to show ya that you can't trust a certain groundhog for a weather outlook! Alright I digress...but it really is warm out there and that's not going to change even with a "cold" front pushing offshore tonight. 850mb temperatures will remain near or at the 90th percentile going into next week...so the 80s are here to stay unfortunately. Corpus Christi hit 95F on Thursday so it could be worse, just saying! Before we take a deeper dive into the warm temperatures, let's talk about fog!

Water temperatures in the bays remain mainly in the low to mid 60s with dew points in the mid to upper 60s through Friday morning ahead of the weak frontal boundary. Dew point depressions will be around 1 or less for areas around I-10 and southward as well with high resolution guidance fairly consistent on having a temperature inversion right at the surface. Suffice to say, fog is likely tonight, but only until the weak cold front pushes through. So, the fog begins a bit widespread tonight into Friday morning but gradually clears out from north to south as the front pushes towards the coast. The front does look to push off the coast for a bit on Friday, but pushes back northward as a warm front on Friday night leading to...you guessed it...more fog! Essentially, chances for fog during the overnight to morning hours continues into the weekend especially for areas south of I-10.

This weak cold front does bring some benefits in the form of cooler overnight temperatures though as we see lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s through the weekend. Even though the air is slightly cooler, RH values for most of the area will still be near 100% overnight into the morning hours. In the day time, we're still looking at high temperatures ranging from the low to mid 80s going into next week as ridging aloft builds in over the weekend. It'll be rather dry on Friday though in the wake of the front, but we'll gradually add in moisture each day to follow. We're approaching that time of the year where we start getting pump faked by cold fronts, and we look at Monday as evidence. Surface low pressure develops near the Texas Panhandle late Sunday and pushes eastward going into Monday. The issue is the jet stream will remain to our north, and so will this front as well. Depending on how close the front gets though, we may have enough moisture convergence to increase cloud cover on Monday. Hey it's something! Another front makes an attempt on Wednesday and there's at least some sort of upper level trough associated with it. As of right now though, it doesn't look sufficient enough to push it through here but there is a bigger surge in moisture out ahead of it. So, rain chances do pop back in the forecast around midweek. As you can imagine, our low temperatures will steadily climb towards the mid to upper 60s by the middle of next week. Remember the answer to the pop quiz? That's near where our high temperatures should be this time of the year! See I got to the point eventually!

Looking even further in the future (to next weekend), things may get a bit more active as PW values remain around the 90th percentile as an upper level trough pushes in. It's too early to talk about any exacts (I'm mainly mentioning this due since there may be interest from CPC's latest outlook), but this does look to be our next best chance of rain. We need some hope in the rain department as our drought conditions steadily worsen. We haven't seen any rainfall since Valentine's Day...and with ~82% of Southeast Texas in a severe drought or worse, we need some rain y'all! Just out of curiosity, I checked out the percent of normal precipitation for 2026 so far and it can be summed up by two words: not good. Majority of the area is in the 25-50% range, so any rainfall we can get would be beneficial.

BONUS ASTRONOMY NUGGET// ------------------------

I'm a huge astronomy nerd, so y'all are gonna nerd out with me for a bit! In case y'all didn't know, there is a Total Lunar Eclipse on Tuesday (March 3rd) morning. For the Houston metro area, the partial eclipse begins around 3:50am, then reaches totality (turns red) from 5:04am through 6:02am. Unfortunately, Mother Nature doesn't look like it'll cooperate with us with plenty of low-level cloud cover (and maybe some fog) expected. This is also complicated by the altitude of the moon gradually decreasing through the early morning hours as well. We may still see glimpses of the moon occasionally through the clouds, but the chances of catching any clear photos of it is on the slim side. I'll still be out there trying though!

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 535 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Easterly to southeasterly winds between 6-10kt will continue through sunset. A slow moving, weak cold front will slide through the area tonight bringing a gradually northeasterly to northerly wind shift through daybreak tomorrow. The light northerly winds Friday morning will gradually swing back around to the east then southeast through the day on Friday.

While VFR conditions are prevailing across the region this evening with CIGs around 4000-5000ft, we are anticipating CIGs to lower to MVFR then IFR through the night with areas of LIFR conditions possible as the front moves through. MVFR conditions with CIGs around 1500-2500ft will start first at the coast after sunset, then creep northwards through the evening reaching IAH by 3-4z and then CXO after midnight. CIGs will lower to 600-800ft for IAH southwards by 6-8z, and then a period of LIFR conditions will be possible between 9-13z with CIGs down to 300-400ft. Patchy fog, becoming dense at times, will also be possible tonight with the greatest chances along the coast. For CLL, UTS, and CXO, anticipating CIGs to drop just to MVFR levels between 9-12z with a possibility of lower CIGs/fog at CXO. Conditions are expected to scatter out to MVFR conditions across the area between 14-16z, then VFR by 15-17z.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1142 PM CST Thu Feb 26 2026

Offshore seas remain elevated overnight, so small craft should continue to exercise caution through early Friday morning. The main marine impact for the forecast period will be periods of patchy sea fog. Areas of dense sea fog is likely overnight into Friday morning but should scatter out by the late morning hours as a weak frontal boundary pushes through. Onshore flow returns by Friday night leading to the potential for additional rounds of patchy sea fog through the weekend during the overnight to morning hours. Light onshore flow and low seas will persist going into the weekend into early next week. Winds and seas may increase near the caution flag threshold around the middle of next week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 57 84 55 84 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 63 85 59 83 / 10 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 63 73 61 70 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 3 AM CST Friday for GMZ370-375.