textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dangerously hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daily widespread heat indicies of 105-107F (41-42C) with locally higher values over 108F (43C +) are likely.

- Isolated to scattered (20-40% chance) showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon.

- Chance of isolated to scattered sea breeze showers/storms increases slightly early next week.

- High pressure builds into the area by midweek, reducing precipitation chances Wednesday and Thursday. Rain/storm chances return late in the week and into next weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

The erosion of ridging both across the eastern U.S and west Texas yesterday afternoon brought mid-level height falls to our region. This allowed for storms to develop to our north across eastern Texas, which moved south reaching the I-10 corridor before dissipating. Currently, a decaying outflow boundary is progressing southwestward across Chambers and Galveston Counties, bring gusty winds of 30 mph with it. Left over cloud cover from decaying showers is seen across eastern Harris and western Liberty Counties. Elsewhere, skies are mostly clear.

For today through Tuesday, guidance continues to show mid-level height falls as the mid to upper-level synoptic pattern breaks down. This will favor better chances for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and Tuesday afternoon. Many of the CAMs performed well with yesterdays showers and thunderstorms, especially the HRRR. The CAMs are once again showing the potential for another round of showers and storms north of I-10 this afternoon, and across much of the area Tuesday afternoon. Isolated showers and storms will generally be favored south of I-10 this afternoon, but some seabreeze showers and storms will be possible. Shower chances look to decrease Wednesday and Thursday before we see chances increase towards the end of the week.

Mid-level ridging is expected to build back in Wednesday, but is expected to be short lived. Hot conditions will continue for several days, with heat indices between 105-110F (41-43C) expected. Whether or not Heat Advisory criteria is met will be dependent on the timing and location of showers and storms towards the end of the week. Areas where shower coverage is less would see higher heat indices at the end of the week. Overall, storm chances towards the end of the week and into the weekend look to be more widespread than what has been seen over the last week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn't last too long with VFR prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10 knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the evening hours. GLS looks to remain around 10 knots through the night. There is a low chance for showers and storms across the region this afternoon. Confidence is low in impacts at any particular terminal at this time so have left any mention out of the TAFs. Other then the risk of mist/fog conditions will remain VFR.

MARINE

Issued at 1208 AM CDT Mon Jul 6 2026

Light onshore flow will persist into early this week. Overall, Gulf seas are expected to average 1 to 2 feet, occasionally up to 3 feet. Isolated coastal and Gulf showers will be possible each morning, with a chance of isolated thunderstorms along the sea breeze in the afternoon. Winds and seas begin to increase by the middle to later part of next week, with a gradually steepening pressure gradient. Small craft exercise caution winds and seas may develop by Thursday as the gradient continues to steepen, with Gulf seas increasing to 3 to 4 feet by the end of the upcoming week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 96 77 95 77 / 10 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 97 79 95 78 / 20 30 30 10 Galveston (GLS) 90 83 90 84 / 10 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.