textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Cold front will be advancing southward into the area this afternoon and tonight bringing some showers and storms.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of strong storms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

As of this writing, the cool front is currently on the doorstep of our northern counties and should continue advancing southward for the rest of the day. It'll eventually put on the brakes and stall along the coast tonight. The initial, shallow windshift is mostly undercutting convection...most of which lies north of the front. Further south, looking at the recent ACARS soundings at the metro airports, there is a warm/dry nose situated between about H85-H7. Afternoon heating and also a potential seabreeze or baybreeze near the Galveston Bay area may allow for enough instability to get some precip going in the warm sector as the day progresses so will continue to monitor trends. But overall, there seems to be more limitations in terms of a wider-spread more organized higher rain total and severe wx threat than we were seeing yesterday and previous days. That's not to say someone won't see a isolated severe cell (hail) or a localized swath of 2-3" rains embedded in a more prevalent 1/2" qpf area.

Suspect we'll eventually see somewhat of a lull in coverage with the loss of heating this evening, but I do anticipate the potential for some isolated to scattered redevelopment at times overnight into early Sunday morning considering we still have the stalled front, weak disturbances aloft, available moisture and a period with a more favorable jet orientation.

The front should lift back northward Sunday afternoon with the typical cloudiness and isolated showers that usually occur in these setups. Warmer, muggy conditions then resume areawide in advance of our next storm system (currently seen near Baja) as ejects eastward and brings our next chance of storms late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Front will follow soon thereafter bringing dry, breezy, and seasonal wx conditions in its wake to round out the rest of the work week & Spring Break. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Main aviation concern today will be the increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight/Sunday morning as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Isolated strong to severe storm, capable of producing large hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible for storms ahead of and along the front. Scattered shower and thunderstorms activity will begin across the CLL area as early as the late morning/early afternoon, then increase in coverage down through the coast through the afternoon/evening. FROPA timing will be difficult to pin down due to how slow the front is moving, but it may occur at CLL around 20-23z, IAH around 4-8z, and then likely stall between there and the coast through the remainder of the night into Sunday morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue today ahead of the front, then become variable with the FROPA (and near any TS). There may be a period of northwesterly winds for area north of I-10 where the front moves past, but areas along the coast may remain variable through Sunday morning before southerly winds return by Sunday evening.

MVFR CIGs around 1500ft will prevail through the mid-morning, then VFR conditions prevail for the afternoon and evening with BKN clouds around 5000ft for most areas except GLS where MVFR CIGs may linger through the entire day. Expecting a return to MVFR conditions this evening with the frontal passage with potential down to IFR (around 700ft) tonight into Sunday morning.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 100 PM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

A weak cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will be moving into Southeast Texas this afternoon and eventually stall near the coast tonight. There will probably be some pockets of sea fog near the Galveston area south of where the boundary eventually stalls, but confidence exactly where is fairly low. This front will lift back north on Sunday. Like the past several days, some intermittent fog near the immediate Gulf coast is again possible early in the week until the next storm system moves through on Wednesday and brings drier air, windy north winds, and building seas in its wake Wednesday night. Would not doubt if we see some sustained winds close to 30kt behind the front. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 57 73 62 83 / 70 40 10 20 Houston (IAH) 66 78 69 83 / 80 70 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 74 68 75 / 60 50 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.