textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week. Overnight lows will be nearer to average highs than to average lows. - Some isolated to scattered showers/storms this afternoon across parts of the area, but no real widespread significant rainfall is expected. Rain chances increase this weekend as a frontal boundary stalls near the region.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

With some peaks of sun emerging and warming temperatures, we're beginning to see a few returns show up on radar. Would anticipate some continued iso-sct shra/tstm development in the next 2-4 hours with continued daytime destabilization. That said, the vast majority of us won't see much in the way of measurable precip. Otherwise, unseasonably warm wx continues with daytime highs in the 80s and overnight lows in the upper 60s-low 70s to round out the work week.

Mid-upper trof over the Pacific Northwest will dig sewd and over the Rockies by Friday. The northern part of the trof will then lift to the ne this weekend and its trailing surface front will sag into the region Saturday. The southern portion of the mid- upper trof will cutoff and retrograde swly off the Baja coast.

Deeper Gulf moisture will be pooling along and south of our weekend surface front which should be stalling in the region as it loses its southward momentum. These higher PW's, in combination with daytime heating, favorable upper jet positioning, and a series of impulses moving across in the swly flow aloft should provide pretty good chances of shra/tstms across the area Sat & Sun.

Our cutoff low off Baja will kick out early next week and track across Texas in the Tue-Wed timeframe and bring us another shot of shra/tstms. 47

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Widespread MVFR to low VFR ceilings are expected this afternoon. While a few sites may see a brief period of VFR conditions; the general consensus is for MVFR to prevail. Southeasterly winds will strengthen to around 15 knots with gusts up to 25 knots this afternoon. Some light showers accompanied by TSRA are possible this afternoon. Since confidence in timing, coverage and occurrence is low, have only included PROB030 across sites north of I-10.

Ceilings will deteriorate again this evening and overnight with a mix of IFR-MVFR ceilings through late Thursday morning. Coastal terminals could potentially see a drop in visibility early in the morning.

JM

MARINE

Issued at 1228 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

A long fetch of southeast winds will persist over the coastal waters through the weekend along with slowly building seas. Warmer air moving over the cooler shelf waters near and off the Galveston coast will be favorable for periods of haze and fog...moreso in the Gulf waters...though it could intermittently move into southern Galveston Bay during the overnight and early morning hours. One limiting factor in terms of visibilities might be slightly higher wind speeds that may mix the atmos enough to keep the widespread dense variety in check. Rain chances increase this weekend, though at the current time, it appears the best chances will be inland near a stalled frontal boundary. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 85 69 86 / 20 10 10 30 Houston (IAH) 69 84 70 85 / 20 10 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 67 74 68 75 / 10 10 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 2 PM CST this afternoon for GMZ355.