textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered rain and storms possible through the day, with the best chances arriving late this evening.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday evening into Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized strong storms and heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

In the near term, lingering light to moderate showers associated with outflow boundaries from decaying storms should weaken/taper off in the next hour or so.

Scattered convective development remains possible during the daytime hours today, focusing primarily along any remnant boundaries and the inland-advancing sea breeze. Attention then turns to the next series of shortwave troughs approaching from the west, as clearly depicted on current IR satellite imagery. Persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport warm and humid air into the region. PWAT values are forecast to climb back into the 90th-95th percentile of climatology, between 1.8 to 2.0 inches. This highly moisture rich environment will easily support scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms, with a risk for training cells as clusters progress east-northeast. Latest model guidance indicates a faster progression of this complex compared to previous runs. Therefore, increasing showers and storms can be expected as early as this evening, with the highest probabilities overnight through early Wednesday. Will continue to monitor the evolution of this MCS as it approaches Southeast Texas. Given moderate mid-level lapse rates and sufficient deep layer shear over TX, this system could potentially support strong to damaging wind gusts. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are expected, though localized pockets of 3 to 5 inches will be possible where training occurs. Weather conditions for Wednesday afternoon/evening remain highly conditional, depending heavily on the exact timing, path and any cold-pool evolution of this MCS and its subsequent outflow boundaries.

By Thursday and persisting into the upcoming weekend, subtle shortwaves will continue to move across the region, but convection will transition to a primarily diurnally driven regime. Overall dynamic support will be minimal, so rainfall totals through the weekend should remain on the lighter side.

JM

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 638 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

A few SHRA/TSRA have developed along a line from Burleson to Houston County in the last hour. These storms are up-and-down in nature, so prolonged impact to any location is unlikely. However, they are developing near KCLL and KUTS, so brief impacts to those terminals are possible to likely, especially KCLL. These storms should taper off around 03z, though showers may linger until 05-06z. Otherwise, VFR conditions should prevail through the evening hours. Another round of MVFR ceilings/visibility are likely tonight, mainly at terminals along and east/north of I-45/I-10. Highest confidence is at KCXO, with low to medium confidence of occurrence at KIAH. Through tomorrow, general southerly to southeast winds take shape, and a few isolated showers may develop near the coast in the afternoon with low chances of impact at TAF sites.

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CDT Tue May 26 2026

Onshore flow will persist through the week and into the upcoming weekend. Light south to southeast winds will prevail today, before becoming moderate late this evening into Wednesday morning. Caution flags will be possible during this time frame. Scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected during the day, particularly along the coast and over the bays. The best chance for widespread rain/storms will be late this evening into early Wednesday as a disturbance moves through from the west. Erratic winds and building seas will be possible with any strong storms.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 72 80 70 86 / 80 80 30 40 Houston (IAH) 75 82 73 87 / 50 90 30 50 Galveston (GLS) 79 84 77 85 / 40 90 50 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.