textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing heat risk is expected through the coming week.

- Isolated heavy rainfall rates may result in isolated street flooding again today, mainly for areas north and west of Houston. Limited rain chances are forecast during the coming week.

- High risk of rip currents will persist through at least Monday night.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

A shortwave trough is currently moving eastward from KS/OK to MO/AR. A mid-level shear axis/area of broadly cyclonic flow extends southward to South Texas with an upper-level jet streak also present. Mid and high level clouds are streaming northward ahead of this feature along with some weak vorticity maxima from convection over the southwest Gulf. HREF guidance continues to indicate the highest probabilities for convection this afternoon over northern/western portions of the area, mainly the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. High (2-2.2") PWATs remain in place, resulting in a continued risk for isolated high rainfall rates/street flooding, with a Level 1 out of 4 (marginal) risk of excessive rainfall from WPC. Thankfully this risk appears to be northwest of Houston. Storms in this area may also produce gusty winds with a little more dry air aloft/DCAPE than previous days. Closer to the coast, showers should be more isolated with some light rain/sprinkles also being possible at times continuing through tonight due to some mid-level moisture/lift.

On Monday the weak shear axis aloft will be weakening as ridging builds westward from the Gulf with rising heights. PWATs begin to drop to around 1.8-1.9". Convection should be more isolated than previous days, but still present, mainly for inland areas. Temperatures will begin their warming trend, with values in the lower 90s in inland areas and heat indices around 100.

Subtropical ridging will gradually retrograde westward from the Gulf to West Texas through the week, while a deep trough moves through the Northern Plains and the Upper Midwest. The ridge and drier air aloft will limit convective coverage, but still expect that hot and humid conditions and the sea breeze will result in isolated to widely scattered activity at times. Temperatures warm into the lower to mid 90s by the end of the week. HeatRisk will mainly be in the moderate category with a few pockets of major. Probabilities of reaching advisory criteria (108F) will be low, with NBM dew points likely running a bit high, but heat will especially be a concern for those visiting the area who are not accustomed to the heat.

JDavis

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 552 AM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Widespread MVFR ceilings are present early this morning along with isolated showers. Expect the MVFR ceilings to continue through at least the mid-morning hours with coverage of showers and the development of thunderstorms later this morning into the afternoon. The highest confidence for thunderstorm activity will generally be north of IAH. Terminals near and south of I-10 (except for SGR) will retain a PROB30 or VCSH as the thunderstorm potential is lower. Southerly winds will be gusty today with sustained winds around 10-15 kt with gusts in the 20-25 kt range through the afternoon.

Shower/storm coverage decreases after 00Z, but lingering light rain is anticipated along the coast late in the afternoon and into the evening. Expect MVFR to IFR ceilings to develop late this evening into Monday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 7 2026

Onshore winds will continue for the the next week. Winds currently are around small craft exercise caution criteria, so flags have been issued through tomorrow morning. Additionally, the winds will oscillate in and out of small craft exercise caution criteria during the week. Isolated showers and storms will be possible early this week but chances decrease as the week goes on.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 91 74 91 / 0 20 0 10 Houston (IAH) 78 89 76 91 / 20 10 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 86 82 87 / 20 10 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Tuesday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Monday morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.