textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Deeper tropical moisture has filtered into the region and should provide 30-60% chances of showers and thunderstorms each day through this weekend. Overall coverage should be highest across the southern half of the region.

- Let's keep an eye out for even better chances of precipitation Monday-Tuesday across all of the area. Localized heavy rain cannot be ruled out.

- Hotter conditions and lower rain/storm chances during the second half of the work week as higher pressure filters in from the east.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Deeper tropical moisture has successfully filtered into southeast TX early this afternoon, with recent Blended TPW satellite imagery indicating widespread PW values in the 2.0-2.3 inch range. This deep moisture profile, combined with peak daytime heating and weak lift associated with a subtle inverted trough sliding by to our south, will remain sufficient to support widely scattered showers and storms through the remainder of the afternoon. Some localized heavy downpours will be possible, but expect this activity to gradually diminish by early this evening.

Tropical moisture is expected to stick around over the next few days with PWs running in the 90th/95th percentile of climatology for this time of year. Therefore, increased rain/storm chances are expected Saturday and Sunday. Generally, expect showers and storms to initiate along the coastal counties and waters during the late night/morning hours, spreading inland during the afternoon. This will not be a complete washout and not everyone will see rain each day; however, keep an eye on the skies and have a temporary plan B ready if planning outdoor activities.

Heading into late Sunday/Monday, the pattern aloft shifts as the ridge strengthens and expands across the Rockies and central CONUS. Southeast Texas will be positioned on the southern periphery of this expansive high, setting up a highway for multiple impulses of energy/vort maxes embedded in the flow aloft to ride westward through midweek. At the surface and up through 700 mb, enhanced low- level convergence will be in place as a weak frontal boundary sags southward along the southeastern CONUS. This convergent setup, paired with the persistent deep moisture and daytime heating, warrants maintaining rain/storm chances in the forecast. On a side note, will also continue to monitor the potential arrival of drier air aloft Monday into Tuesday, likely associated with another incoming round of the Saharan Air Layer. At the moment, uncertainty remains regarding the overall thickness and density of this dust layer, and whether it will deliver a sufficient amount of dry air aloft to suppress deep convection. For now, have leaved towards a wetter forecast, with 60 - 80% PoPs Sunday through Tuesday. Localized heavy rain and occasional gusty winds will be possible within the strongest storms. WPC highlights this risk in their Sunday into Tuesday period with a Slight and/or Marginal risk for excessive rainfall. Abundant cloud cover and rain chances will result in a couple of days of highs mainly in the mid 80s to near 90, at least.

Beyond Wednesday...high pressure builds/expands over the northern Gulf/southeastern CONUS. This building ridge will give way to hotter conditions and higher heat indices across the region along with isolated diurnally-driven seabreeze activity.

JM

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Similar to yesterday afternoon, today's showers and thunderstorms are expected to dissipate in the next few hours. Associated elevated and gusty winds should gradually lower through the evening, becoming near calm overnight. In general, SSE/SE winds prevail through the TAF period, aside from light VRB winds on Saturday morning for sites along and around I-10. Another few rounds of scattered showers/thunderstorms is in store for tomorrow. In the early morning hours, guidance indicates some coastal convective activity gradually pushing north through sunrise. Isolated to scattered activity can be expected through the morning, until another round of thunderstorms moves through the region tomorrow afternoon. With the stronger storms, expect reductions in visibility, gusty and erratic winds, and lightning. Following a similar pattern to today, tomorrow's convective activity is expected to dissipate by tomorrow evening.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

Onshore winds around 10 to 15 knots with gusts between 15 to 20 knots will persist tonight and into the weekend. Seas will generally remain 2 to 4 ft through the period. A daily threat of scattered showers and storms is expected with the best chances overnight into the morning hours, spreading over the bays by late morning/early afternoon. More numerous activity is expected Monday and Tuesday. While severe weather is not anticipated, heavy downpours, lightning, gusts around 25 to 35 kts, and building seas cannot be ruled out near any stronger storms. Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions will be possible at times through at least next Wednesday.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 93 76 93 / 20 40 20 30 Houston (IAH) 78 92 77 93 / 30 40 20 60 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 83 89 / 50 40 30 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.