textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Light freeze expected tonight into Tuesday morning in portions of the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley. A Freeze Warning is in effect for these locations.

- Elevated to critical fire weather conditions ongoing today as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of Southeast TX thru 7PM Monday.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue in the wake of the front through Monday: moderate to strong northerly winds (gusting to 30-35 kt), elevated seas (8-12 ft), and negative tides in Galveston Bay through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight and a Low Water Advisory remains in effect through this evening.

- Warming trend for the rest of the week with high temperatures likely approaching the 90s over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Welcome back, winter! It is still astronomical winter for a few more days, and I'm glad we have at least one more good cooldown before we move into the dreaded part of the calender year. We'll actually get a free trial of summer this weekend, but I'm getting ahead of myself...we'll save that fun for later. We started off this morning with temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s with northerly winds still advecting in colder air. This afternoon we'll only see high temperatures in the 50s...the last time this happened was February 1st (43 days ago). If I had to wager a guess, this is likely the last occurrence until the fall...so soak it in!

Gusty northerly winds continue as a 35-45 kt LLJ remains overhead. Although it is gradually weakening, we're still able to see sustained winds of 20-30 mph with gusts exceeding 40 mph at times especially near the coast. As a result, a Wind Advisory remains in effect through 6pm this evening. Combine that with very dry air and increasingly drying fuels, and we have elevated to critical fire weather conditions across most of Southeast TX. A Red Flag Warning remains in effect through 7pm this evening...see the Fire Weather discussion below for more details on that.

Upper level cloud cover will gradually increase later today as an embedded shortwave passes through. This cloud cover clears out going into the overnight hours, and that'll pair with surface high pressure sliding overhead. Who here knows the magic equation for max radiational cooling? Ehh I suppose that method only works in a classroom...well the answer is light winds + clear skies + dry air! That'll all be in place tonight into Tuesday morning leading to widespread lows in the 30s with some upper 20s up north (and 40s right along the coast). This means that a light freeze is expected for portions of the Piney Woods and the Brazos Valley. Since we've had springlike temperatures for quite a while, some greenup has occurred...and I'm sure many of you have already begun planting crops/flowers/plants as well. As a result, a Freeze Warning has been issued for these locations from 1AM-9AM Tuesday morning. Be sure to take the proper precautions to protect vulnerable plants from these freezing conditions.

A rather robust mid/upper level high begins to build into the southwestern CONUS around midweek. We'll go on a warming trend this week as well with temperatures back into the 70s by midweek and approaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week. Perfect time to mention that the Spring Equinox is on the morning of Friday, March 20th. The mid/upper level high looks to expand a tad bit eastward going into the weekend. Combine that with 850mb temperatures approaching the 99th to MAX percentile (NAEFS/GEFS), westerly to southwesterly flow aloft, southwesterly flow at the surface, and relatively dry air (PW values around or less than 1"), and we have the recipe for well above normal temperatures. There is potential that we could see our first 90F temperatures of the year on Saturday, but it's still a little too early to lock it in. At the very least, we'll be near or in record-breaking territory. Here's a fun fact about the 90F mark though: the average first 90F day for the City of Houston is May 6th, but we did see a 90F day in mid March last year!

BONUS NUGGET UPDATE// ---------------------

Lastly, if you've been keeping up with my discussions the past few days, you'll remember that I talked about the VERY low probability for some frozen precipitation (flurries/graupel) in far northeastern areas (eastern Piney Woods) late Sunday night into early Monday morning. I gave it a <5% probability of occuring within that region and said that it was much more plausible to our northeast. Well wouldn't ya know it that the mPING report map was lit up with graupel reports early this morning all across Louisiana! I know it's not Texas...but there were plenty of reports to our northeast, so I'm gonna count that as a win! I will definitely enjoy a victory cookie today! :)

Also did you ever imagine that you'd see discussions about graupel and temperatures in the 90s all within the same week?! I sure didn't! Mother Nature certainly keeps us on our toes...

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty northerly winds should decrease overnight, becoming light and variable inland though slightly elevated along the coast. Winds should shift south to southeasterly Tuesday afternoon. VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period.

03

MARINE

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Moderate to strong northerly winds continue this afternoon, but are continuing to gradually decrease. Winds and seas aren't expected to drop below the advisory threshold till late tonight, so a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect. PETSS guidance reflects low water conditions are ongoing currently in Galveston Bay with water levels around 1.0 to 1.5 feet below MLLW persisting in the northern part of the bay through this afternoon, so a Low Water Advisory remains in effect. Winds and seas decrease overnight into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return late Tuesday and continue into the end of the work week.

Batiste

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 208 PM CDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Gusty northerly winds (gusts in the 30-40 mph range) and very dry air (minimum RH values as low as 15%) has lead to elevated to critical fire weather conditions today. The Texas A&M Forest Service has areas the majority of Southeast TX outlined in an extreme fire danger rating (level 5 out of 5) today. This period of very dry air and gusty winds will dry out fuels, especially now that the spring greenup has already begun. Fuel moisture is be on a decreasing trend with 10 hr and 1 hr fuel moisture heading towards the lower percentiles today.

As a result, a Red Flag Warning remains in effect for most of Southeast TX through 7PM this evening. Be sure to practice fire safety and avoid any activities that could spark a fire as they could spread rapidly in these conditions. Drier air and fuels stick around going into Tuesday, but winds will be lighter and southeasterly. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as onshore winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 31 64 42 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 36 63 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 46 60 54 70 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Tuesday for TXZ163-164- 176>179-195>200-300.

Red Flag Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.