textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect another night and early morning of cautious driving with at least patchy fog across the area. Localized foggy spots may also see areas of more dense fog emerge, with visibility falling under a mile.

- A cold front will bring gusty winds and colder, much drier air in its wake Sunday and Monday. Some locations well north of the Houston metro could have their first light freeze of the season. Critical fire weather conditions may emerge over at least a portion of the area, especially on Sunday.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected Sunday into Monday. A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal Gulf waters during this time, though it may converted into either a strong Small Craft Advisory or Gale Warning depending on how widespread and consistent gale conditions are expected to be.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

The weekend approaches, and so does a long-anticipated cold front. Unlike the last couple of fronts, which brought at least some scattered rain and storms (one a little more effectively than the other), this front looks like it will functionally be a dry front, with only some slight rain chances over the Gulf late tonight into early Sunday morning.

But just because there are no storms on this front does not make it uneventful! We have a Gale Watch out on the Gulf for strong post-frontal winds that - depending on how widespread gale force winds will be - may become either a strong small craft advisory or a gale warning. More on that in the marine section below. But, astute students of Great Lakes maritime history (or if you just grew up there like me) and/or fans of Gordon Lightfoot will note some irony in the timing of this gale watch. Though for us, that front two weeks ago guaranteed that our Gales of November came so early, it was actually October!

And where there's strong northerly winds bringing in a colder, much drier airmass, there's fire weather concerns to follow! Critically low humidity looks virtually certain, especially west of the Houston metro. Gusty north winds are also likely, and we'll be on the lookout for where the driest air, strongest winds, and dry vegetation manage to line up for any potential fire weather watches and/or red flag warnings. Cooler temperatures and vegetation that is not yet critically dry may help temper the fire weather threat some. But even in a best case scenario, near critical fire weather conditions are expected to materialize Sunday and Monday, so it will be important to use great caution with flame and sparks or avoid their use entirely, and to strongly adhere to local burn bans in place. More on that in the fire weather section below.

As for the more general parts of the forecast, with no real rain potential out there, the big star of the show will be the temperatures, especially through the next 72-84 hours. The word of the day with this forecast is "whiplash". The tables of ensemble data highlighting standout features really light up and in a bunch of different colors right next to each other! Both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble mean 850 temps go from above the 99th percentile through today, to down below the 3rd percentile by Sunday evening! Then, as if that isn't enough, both systems do bring those 850 temps back above the 90th percentile at some point next week, though the exact timeframe still differs pretty widely. But, it's probably safe to say that the cold post-frontal temps are not expected to stick around very long.

To match that, the Euro Extreme Forecast Index is lit up for temperatures every single day - first for unusually warm temps today...then for unusually cold temps, mostly for Monday...then right back to warm temps for the second half of next week. I don't currently have any record temps - high or low - forecast explicitly, but we will at least be close to record highs again this afternoon. Now, while we may not necessarily still be looking for record lows behind this front, it should still safely be the coldest airmass of the fall so far, and we may see our first light freezes creep in up north. So...Houston the county, yes be on the lookout, Houston the city, you're still safe.

Sunday night into Monday morning, look for chances of reaching freezing around the 1 in 4 area in Trinity and Polk counties, and around or even above 1 in 3 for Madison and Houston counties. Monday night into Tuesday morning looks even chillier - probabilities of freezing temps are 40 percent and higher in all of those locations, and more likely than not in large swaths of Houston County. Lower chances, 20-40 percent, also begin to emerge in smaller portions of Walker, San Jacinto, and northern Liberty counties. If you're living north of the Houston metro, particularly in more rural locations, and have vulnerabilities to freezing temps (remember those Ps - people, pets, pipes, and plants!) you'll want to be keeping a close eye on the temperature forecast early next week. Even those in rural locations all the way down to I-10 may want to pay attention, as a non-zero chance of freezing temps does exist that far south outside of the Houston heat island. They chances may be low, 10-20 percent, but they do still exist!

Beyond our brief spat of cold weather, confidence is very high that we will see a warming trend into the latter portions of the week. What is less confident is just how quickly that will be. NAEFS 850 temps suggest it could happen quite quickly, with 90th percentile values at 850 emerging as early as late Tuesday night. The Euro Ensemble takes things more slowly, but still has 90th percentile 850 temps by Friday morning. For now, I mostly am rolling with straight NBM here while the guidance has such wide differences in timing. The trend is there at least - it will get warmer - we'll just have to parse out how quick it will be.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CST Fri Nov 7 2025

A diffuse frontal boundary/wind shift will sag into parts of the region tonight (generally CXO northward...and overall un-noticalble other than a weak wind shift). But, ahead of this boundary we'll probably see some patchy areas of fog develop to its south after about 6z. SREF model is showing >60% chance of vsby around/below 1 mile between about 9-12z between about Edna-Liberty...but mainly just outside the metro airports. Like the last several days, it should quickly burn off an hour or two after sunrise with VFR and mclr conditions prevailing thereafter. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Areas of patchy fog inland could spill in across portions of the upper bay again late tonight into the early morning hours. After a stretch of tranquil marine conditions, a cold front is expected pass off the coast between 2am-6am Sunday. There will be some stronger onshore winds before the front, but particularly higher north winds and building seas after the front passes. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected, along with at least some gusts to gale force.

There is some potential for more widespread gale conditions on the Gulf between late Sunday morning and early Monday morning. A gale watch has been issued for this timeframe, and as confidence in just how strong the post-frontal winds are expected to be, will be converted to either a high-end small craft advisory or a gale warning accordingly. Though the odds probably favor a very high end small craft advisory with sporadic gale gusts, it would not take a big upward adjustment in the winds to give us more widespread gales.

Another potential hazard behind the front is for low water conditions late Sunday and Monday, which will also be impacted by the strength of the expected winds.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1204 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected on Sunday and Monday as gusty northerly winds prevail in the wake of a strong cold front that pushes through late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. Drier air behind the front will lead to minimum RH values in the 25-35% range on Sunday and 15-25% range on Monday. While the driest conditions hold off until Monday, winds will be the strongest on Sunday with the strongest sustained winds around 20 mph and gusts around 30 mph. Winds on Monday will start out gusty, but gradually subside throughout the day.

A couple rain events over the past couple of weeks will help temper the threat posed by the dry and windy conditions, particularly in the northeast towards the Piney Woods. Data from the Texas A&M Forest Service indicates above, but near normal, fuel conditions becoming more unusually dry as the drier airmass sets in. The need for any fire weather watches and/or red flag warnings will depend on how much the critically low humidity, strong winds, and drier vegetation line up. Regardless of whether a warning is issued or not, fire weather conditions will be near critical to critical - it will be important to use extreme caution with flame and sparks, as well as obey all burn restrictions and burn bans to minimize the ignition of new fires.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 56 85 57 67 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 65 87 61 71 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 70 81 65 73 / 0 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ350-355-370-375.