textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon for Wednesday and Thursday.

- There is the potential for slightly higher chances of rain on Friday, but mid-upper level ridge may suppress shower development.

- Seasonably hot weather continues through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

The local PWs are expected to be lower on Wednesday and continue to decrease on Thursday, while a mid-upper level ridge meanders over the N and NE Gulf waters. This will help limit shower development across Southeast Texas, especially on Thursday when PWs are expected to lower to 1.2-1.5 inches. Even with the influence of the ridge and the lower PWs, a generous 15-20% PoPs was added for Wednesday, given that the models have been underestimating the previous days shower and thunderstorm activity near and along the seabreeze boundary. I do expect chances to be much lower on Thursday, but added a 10-15% chance as a precaution.

On Friday, a healthy surge of moisture is expected to move in from the western Gulf waters, rising PWs to 1.7-2.1 inches. Even though the ridge continues to our east, there could be sufficient lift and instability near and along the seabreeze boundary for a few showers and storms to develop. If storms become strong enough, we might see some of them produce brief heavy rainfall. The chances of rain decrease during the upcoming weekend as drier air moves in again.

With respect to temperatures...well, it's summer and looking into the climate data, we should remain close or slightly above average for this time of the year (roughly 1-4 deg higher than normal). Expect highs in the mid to upper 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast for the rest of the week. Heat indices will range between 105-108 degrees, with isolated spots possibly reaching 108-110 degrees. Afternoon winds will be higher in the afternoons, which may help somewhat. However, dont underestimate the effects of heat stress, especially if you plan to work or play for several hours outdoors. The nights will remain warm with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and the lower 80s along the coast.

Cotto

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Lingering isolated shra/tsra will quickly dissipate this evening as we lose daytime heating. Winds overnight become light, with some MVFR cigs developing in our northern zones by early morning. Southerly winds are expected to be gustier on Thursday, possibly gusting over 20 knots. Winds may become more southeasterly in by late Thursday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1136 PM CDT Tue Aug 11 2026

Light to occasionally moderate south to southeast winds are expected for the next several days. Seas will rise 3 to 5 feet on Thursday and lower back to 2 to 3 feet by late Friday. Caution flags may be needed from Wednesday night to Thursday night, mainly for moderate winds. Low chances of rain expected over the waters through Thursday. There is the potential for slightly higher chances of rain on Friday, but a broad mid to upper level ridge to our east could limit the development of showers. Drier conditions expected during the upcoming weekend.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 99 76 99 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 78 96 79 97 / 0 20 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 91 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.