textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Stronger, gusty northeast winds from this morning and this afternoon are ushering in cooler conditions that will carry through the holiday. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair weather and temperatures very near or just slightly below average.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms associated with our next front coming over the weekend.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

With last night's reinforcing front, we now find ourselves in a noticeably chillier airmass than we've had for much of November. But, while the relative change is fairly large, we are coming down from such a warm point that conditions will be pretty close to the average numbers for late November. Though somewhat breezy to start the day, winds will settle down into the evening and with otherwise fair weather, I'm not sure one could ask for much more in a holiday forecast. About the only thing that stands out to me is that Thursday does look quite dry. So, if your cooking method involves outdoor frying, smoking, or anything where you could set something on fire...please don't. Take the extra time to ensure you are working in as clear a space as possible where stray ignition sources can't start a fire, and be particularly cautious while you're doing your work. Of course, on top of everything, be sure you're complying with all local burn restrictions and bans!

Come Friday, we'll be looking for winds to swing around to being more onshore, and with them coming up to around small craft advisory level (oh yeah, there's a marine section down there for more on that if you're interested!), we do look to get a decent opportunity at moisture return, even though the time until the arrival of our next front late Saturday will be pretty limited. With the decently strong onshore flow, I do have dewpoints rising from the 30s and 40s Friday evening to the middle 60s Saturday afternoon.

Given the background drought conditions in the area, I'm hoping this gets us right in that nice sweet spot where we get some solid showers and storms around the area to help mitigate those issues, while not getting so much rain that flooding issues swoop in. Using 1.5 inch precipitable water as a rough proxy for the 90th percentile in the area this time of year and a point where we're getting moisture levels that could focus us on excessive rain, we are...getting uncomfortably close. It's probably a good thing that our time for moisture return is limited, as both the NAEFS and EPS mean PWATs are in the 1.25-1.5 inch range across the area, with a small patch of 90th percentile PWAT near the coast in both ensemble systems. Along with that, there is a small signal for high QPF in the EPS' Extreme Forecast Index on "Sunday" (6pm Sat to 6 pm Sun), mostly coastward of I-10.

One nice thing, however, is that this system should be somewhat progressive, and the quick motion would help argue against excessive rainfall. So, ultimately, it's a pretty mixed bag we're looking at right now. Solid inflow with efficient moisture return, and a pretty clear opportunity for numerous showers and storms ahead of and along a front this weekend. However, the time to build moisture will be limited, with quicker storm motion. This is something we'll need to keep an eye on, particularly if the front looks like its forward motion will break down, or if a broader area of very anomalous moisture begins to emerge. WPC has a marginal risk for excessive rain (threat level 1 of 4) across the area for this timeframe, which seems pretty reasonable given the mixed signals happening right now.

And then, beyond the weekend storm potential, another thing to watch will be temperatures as yet another shot of colder air fills in behind the front to chill things down a little bit more. That I'm pretty confident in talking about that. The precise details...eh, I want to be a little more hand-wavey on. Diving back into the ensemble data, the mean 850 temps still don't fall below the 10th percentile. The EFI does show a faint signal for cold max temps, but just for the northernmost portions of the area.

Now, with that said, there is still room to see temps fall, and given that this time range is dominated by global models that may fail to fully capture shallow cold airmasses, it's worth checking out these colder extremes. NBM's tenth percentile for low temps shows some lows around freezing near the banks of the Trinity up in Houston County as early as Sunday morning. By mid-week, lows even in the Houston core are down to around freezing, with lows in the 20s for almost the entire rest of the area. I want to stress again that this is plumbing down near the low extreme of the distribution and a pretty unlikely scenario. I mention it here because I suspect that if we're hedging against the NBM, it is more likely to be on the cold side of the deterministic numbers, and in the worst case, some temps around freezing can't be ruled out anywhere in the area...except maybe Galveston Island. The big question on this timeframe in the days to come, and what we'll be working to more confidently answer will be how much of the area can confidently expect to see it get that cold? For now, if I had to put a bet on something, I'd say freezing temps are most likely to stay north of the Houston metro. But...everyone in SE Texas should not get attached too strongly to a particular number yet. Enjoy your Thanksgiving, then afterward come back and see how the forecast has evolved.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 522 AM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

VFR through the end of the TAF period. NE winds at 10-15KTS with gusts of around 25KTS expected this morning. Llvl wind shear will be possible at times. Winds will be around 10KTS this afternoon, then relax to around 5KTS tonight.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 145 PM CST Wed Nov 26 2025

Gusty northeast winds to 20 to 25 knots with gusts of around 30 knots can be expected to continue through today along with higher seas thanks to a surge of colder, drier air from the north. A Small Craft Advisory is in place on the Gulf waters through Wednesday evening, when winds and seas are anticipated to drop below the advisory threshold. Conditions are not expected to become calm, but low enough that an advisory will no longer be needed...temporarily. At the end of the week, onshore winds resume and an increase back to advisory-level winds and seas appears likely for at least a portion of the weekend.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 64 43 64 42 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 69 47 65 44 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 71 57 67 58 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ350-355- 370-375.