textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Today will mark the beginning of a warming trend, though this first warmer day will only see temperatures slightly higher than Wednesday. More marked increases in temps will kick in through the weekend and into the first half of next week.

- Upper portions of Galveston Bay will see some negative water levels around low tide cycles into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Ridging building aloft will lead to a period of warming temperatures and continued dry conditions through the weekend. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the mid-60s today and then mid-70s on Friday with high temperatures continuing to be in the 70s through the first half of next week. Overnight temperatures tonight will drop into the 40s, and then upper 40s to low 50s Friday and Saturday night. Southerly winds return by Sunday allowing for warmer overnight temperatures in the mid to upper 50s (and some low 60s in the Houston Metro and along the coast) nightly Sunday night through midweek next week.

Abundant sunshine and light northwesterly to westerly winds will keep moisture low across SE Texas through the start of the weekend with afternoon RH values will be dropping into the 20-30% range inland (30-50% along the coast). While winds will be light and RH values not dropping below critical fire weather thresholds, please be mindful of any open flames/things that spark as recent hard freezes likely led to vegetation death, which could lead to quick fire starts. A light southerly flow returns by Sunday allowing for an increase in moisture, improving afternoon minimum RH values by 20-30% across the region.

You'll notice in the first paragraph of this discussion that a lot of my certainty drops by midweek next week. That is due to an expected upper-level disturbance that will pass through Texas Tuesday into Wednesday of next week. Shortwave troughs may begin to pass through the area as early as Tuesday morning leading to increased chance of showers and thunderstorms with increasing chances through the day as the cold front associated with upper- level disturbance moves through the region. A bit too early to get into the fine details of that day, but we will be monitoring for the potential for any strong or severe thunderstorms Tuesday into Tuesday night. The airmass behind this front will be Pacific- based, not Arctic, so don't expect much, if any, of a cool down behind the FROPA. If anything, Wednesday may end up being a few degrees warmer than Tuesday as strong upper-level riding and surface high pressure slides over the region with afternoon highs approaching 80 degrees.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 PM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

VFR throughout the TAF period. Light W to VRB winds expected tonight into Fri morning, then strengthening to 5-10 KTS Fri afternoon. There's the possibility of llvl WS around 09-12Z Fri, mainly for sites near and east of I45.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1059 AM CST Thu Feb 5 2026

Light northerly winds (5-10kt) this afternoon will become west- southwesterly winds tonight through Friday night, increasing to 10-15kt at times. Flow turns easterly by Saturday afternoon, and then southeasterly by Sunday. Generally light winds and low seas will prevail through the start of next week.

Main forecast concern continues to be the low water-levels, especially during times of low tide, in the northern part of Galveston Bay thanks to a combination of offshore winds and low astronomical tides. Water levels down to around 1.0ft below MLLW is forecasted during times of low tide near Morgan's Point through at least Sunday morning.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 79 47 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 47 76 51 74 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 52 66 54 62 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Friday for GMZ335.