textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Pleasant, dry weather expected today and tonight.

- Rain chances return late this weekend as a couple of upper level disturbances push into the region. Locally heavy rainfall possible Sunday.

- Colder and dry Monday-Tuesday followed by a gradual warming trend during the second half of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

I don't know about y'all, but I've been REALLY enjoying the past couple of days. Chilly in the morning, pleasant in the afternoon, and nothing but blue skies...it's just perfection! High temperatures this afternoon will top out mostly in the mid 70s, which is a tad bit cooler than yesterday. This is thanks to an 850mb high sliding in from the west, which has brought ever so slightly cooler temperatures aloft. PW values are currently around 0.6", which is right around the 25th percentile. Dew points are mostly in the upper 40s to mid 50s right now. Going into tonight, we'll see drier dew points move in from the northeast. Dew points will drop into the 30s for at least areas east of I-45 and north of I-10...and we could see the westward extent extend further into the Brazos Valley. This is important to note because we'll still have clear skies. Easterly winds will be on the rise late in the night and low-level moisture will be gradually increasing from the southwest (we'll discuss why in the next paragraph). So, what does this mean for tonight's temperatures? It creates a scenario where our northeastern areas will see slightly cooler temperatures than Thursday night (mid to upper 40s) and southwestern areas will see slightly warmer temperatures (mid to upper 50s). In the grand scheme of things though, it'll feel similar with widespread lows in the 40s/50s.

Now we're gonna get into the synoptic breakdown of things as we head into the weekend. Currently we have a ridge axis sliding in that's wedged between an upper level trough over the northeastern CONUS and an approaching upper level trough over the western CONUS. Going into Saturday afternoon, an embedded shortwave trough pushes in from the west. Onshore flow will be strengthening beginning Saturday morning leading to an increase of low-level moisture from the southwest. There will still be a layer of dry air in the mid-levels (between 500-800mb) that this increasing moisture and lift would have to battle through. So, we're still only looking at light to moderate rain showers on Saturday afternoon/evening as the first embedded shortwave pushes through. The best chances for rain would be west of I-45 (closer to the Brazos River). It is still worth mentioning that we could see some isolated heavier downpours especially around Matagorda Bay. Some of the latest high-res guidance supports this potential mainly in the mid-afternoon hours on Saturday, so that'll be something worth monitoring. Increasing clouds and increasing winds on Saturday will lead to high temperatures only reaching the upper 60s to low 70s.

The next upper level disturbance pushes through the Four Corners region on Saturday afternoon leading to surface low pressure development near the Texas/Oklahoma panhandles. This is important to note because this places us areas west of I-45 in the warm sector as this low develops further and pushes southeastward. Model guidance is fairly consistent with an axis of instability setting up south of I-10 and west of I-45. There'll be quite a bit shear to work with as a LLJ moves in overhead Sunday morning. This leads to bulk shear (0- 6 km) near or above 50kt. For all my fellow weather nerds, that means we have all four ingredients for strong to severe storms (moisture, lift, instability, and shear) setting up generally along the coast. As a result, SPC has outlined areas generally near and south of I-10 in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather on Sunday. Damaging winds and hail are the primary hazards, but a brief isolated tornado can't be ruled out.

Heavy rainfall will also be a threat, especially as the surface low moves into our area. This will surge PW values near the MAX percentile (~1.99") along the coast. The overlap of climatologically high PW's and numerous sources of lift creates the potential for rainfall rates peaking above 2-3"/hr. The greatest potential of this remains south of I-10 and along the coast. We're still expecting widespread rainfall amounts of 1-3" with the highest totals along the coast. There is some deterministic model guidance showing the potential for amounts greater than 4" along the coast, so we'll continue to monitor those trends to see if additional models jump onboard. WPC has outlined all of Southeast Texas in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday, but those of you along the coast have a slightly higher potential of seeing localized flooding.

The associated cold front pushes offshore Sunday night/early Monday morning, but lingering moisture and lift may lead to our coolest day since mid-March on Monday! Part of that equation will be gusty northeasterly winds that prevail in the wake of the front throughout the day on Monday. We will likely see sustained winds near the Wind Advisory threshold along the coast. The Wind Advisory potential begins as early as Sunday night. Low-level moisture is also expected to linger throughout the day leaving a blanket of low level cloud cover throughout the day. Those two factors are hindrances to heating. In yesterday's discussion, I mentioned that the high temperatures were "currently" reflected to range from the upper 50s to low 60s. Well they still are, but I bumped those temperatures down by a degree or two...so now those upper 50s extends further south into portions of the Houston metro area. We may still need to bump these down over the coming days! As far as low temperatures go, those'll still bottom out in the mid 40s to low 50s on Sunday and Monday night.

We'll see a gradual warming trend through next week as high temperatures rise into the 60s on Tuesday and the 70s on Wednesday courtesy of ridging aloft moving in. The dry pattern looks to persist through midweek, before slight rain chances return towards the end of the work week.

Batiste

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

VFR conditions occurring at all sites, with VFR prevailing through the period. Winds remain light and northerly through the day, becoming easterly towards the evening into overnight hours. Look for winds to gust to around 20 kts at GLS around 12Z Saturday. Gusts to 20 knots are expected to impact SGR/LBX around 14Z, and all other terminals around 16Z. Expect gusts to continue through the remainder of the period. Gusts to around 25 knots could occur near the end of the period.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1152 AM CST Fri Nov 13 2026

Benign marine conditions will persist through tonight as light northeasterly winds this afternoon transition to east-southeasterly by tonight. Winds steadily increase going into Saturday morning with winds reaching the Small Craft Advisory around or shortly after sunrise. A Small Craft Advisory will go into effect Saturday morning and is currently extended through Sunday morning, but it will be extended likely through Monday. These moderate to strong winds will transition to southeasterly Saturday night with seas building into the 7-10 ft range by Saturday night. Winds will transition to northeasterly behind the front early Monday morning with sustained winds in the 25-30 kt range. Gale force gusts are possible, especially late Sunday night through Monday evening. Seas may peak in the 10-12 ft range during this timeframe. Winds and seas gradually subside throughout the day on Tuesday, but may remain elevated enough for Advisories.

Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday afternoon/evening (around Matagorda Bay) and Sunday through Monday (widespread). Some storms may be strong on Sunday. We'll also need to monitor water levels during times of high tide over the weekend as model guidance continues to hint at peaks above 3.0 ft MLLW. The elevated onshore flow over the weekend will also lead to moderate to high risk of rip currents along Gulf facing beaches.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 50 71 54 64 / 0 10 50 80 Houston (IAH) 52 68 56 67 / 0 0 30 80 Galveston (GLS) 63 70 65 73 / 0 0 30 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-350-370.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM CST Sunday for GMZ335-355-375.