textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front tonight will bring gusty winds and much colder temperatures in its wake. A Wind Advisory has been issued for our western and coastal zones due to likely gusts over 40 MPH. - Gale Warning Issued for the bays and Gulf tonight into Monday. Strong winds, hazardous seas, and low bay water levels to make marine travel treacherous.

- After a chilly Monday-Tuesday, expect a warming trend for the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

While we continue to marinate in a warm, muggy, tropical-like air here in SE Texas, a steepening gradient between an intensifying low in the Midwest and a strong surface high over the northwestern plains is enhancing strong CAA over central CONUS. The cold front has reached the Texas Panhandle as of writing this AFD. SE Texas temperatures are already around 80 degrees as of noon. Meanwhile, our friends in the TX Panhandle are dealing with temperatures quickly falling through the 30s with 35-45 MPH wind gusts. This cold front will surge southward, crossing our CWA this evening/tonight. Scattered showers are expected along the front, with some possibility of showers lingering in its wake. There also remains a risk of fog this evening in our coastal counties before the front passes through.

Winds will quickly pick up as temperatures tumble in the front's wake. Much of the CWA is expected to experience wind gusts in the 35-40 MPH range, with occasional gusts as high as 40-45 MPH in our western and southern counties (thus the Wind Advisory for parts of our region). Even higher gusts are possible over the bay and Gulf waters. These strong northerly winds will push a much colder air mass into our region. Most locations are expected to be in the 40s tomorrow morning. Persistent CAA will limit the amount of warming that occurs on Monday. With enough cloud cover, many areas could remain in the 40s all day. We continue to lean towards enough thinning and breaks in the clouds to allow the southern half of our region to reach the low 50s. Monday night will be cold, with lows generally in the 30s (upper 20s northern Piney Woods, low 40s at the coast).

High pressure and clearer skies will bring us a beautiful albeit chilly Tuesday with highs in the 50s. Clear skies will likely allow for efficient radiational cooling at night, potentially allowing for a widespread light freeze away from the coast/bays and outside the urban heat island. However, the cold will not last as modest ridging and return flow enter the picture for the second half of the week. The forecast for New Year's has trended somewhat warmer since yesterday. New Year's Eve is still looking seasonably cool with highs in the low 60s and overnight lows in the 40s. But our NBM leaning temperature grids are now pushing New Year's Day highs near 70 degrees. By Friday (January 2nd), we could be pushing 80 degrees again.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Strong cold front will cross the terminals this evening. Best timing around 02Z for KCLL/KUTS, 04-05Z for the Houston terminals, and 06Z for KLBX/KGLS. Strong north winds will be the main concern, with gusts of 25-35 knots likely along/following FROPA, with the strong winds continuing into Monday. A thin band of showers is expected to develop along the front, with scattered light showers outside of this band. Any restrictions in visibility due to rain should be very brief and mainly with the thin band. There is a low risk of thunder but not high enough to warrant mention in the TAFs. Expect 2-4 hours of MVFR ceilings following FROPA then a quick improvement in ceilings thereafter.

Ahead of the front, sea fog is expected to develop and impact KLBX/KGLS, with LIFR conditions possible 02-06Z this evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

A strong cold front will push offshore around midnight tonight. Scattered showers are expected along the front, with some possibility of showers lingering in its wake. There may be areas of fog ahead of the front and its possible some locations could experience dense fog this evening before the front passes. Very strong winds are expected in the front's wake late tonight into tomorrow. Sustained winds of 25-35 knots with gusts up to 40-45 knots are expected. There is some potential for locally higher gusts up to 50 knots in the Gulf. Bay waters will become very rough while seas offshore build to over 10 feet. Bay winds are expected to drop below gale and into Small Craft Advisory territory by Monday afternoon, remaining at advisory into Monday night. For the Gulf, gale conditions are expected to prevail until Monday evening, with Small Craft winds and/or seas lingering into Tuesday.

Much lighter winds and calmer seas are expected during the second half of the week. Winds are expected to become south to southwesterly by week's end, perhaps increasing somewhat by the weekend. We will need to watch moisture levels and wind direction/speed for fog potential late in the week. But for now, the set up does not look too favorable for sea fog during that time frame.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 41 48 35 54 / 30 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 51 36 55 / 30 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 51 52 42 54 / 40 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ176-195>198-210>212.

Wind Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for TXZ214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Gale Warning from midnight tonight to noon CST Monday for GMZ330- 335.

Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 6 PM CST Monday for GMZ350- 355-370-375.