textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Patchy fog possible during the overnight to early morning hours for the next couple of nights.

- Hot and humid conditions expected through mid-week. Make sure to be prepared for the heat if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms expected this afternoon. Shower/storm chances increase Tuesday and going into the end of the work week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 250 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Mostly quiet conditions across the region this afternoon, with some isolated to scattered showers and storms favoring the southwestern coastal counties. Expect isolated to scattered activity to continue through the afternoon and moving inland along the advancing sea breeze. A decaying MCS feature descending southwestward out of Arkansas should decay before reaching the northeastern counties according to the latest CAM's, so rain chances through the overnight period are generally 15% or less for that area.

Tomorrow during the daytime hours is anticipated to be more of the same as today, with morning shower potential increasing in areal coverage with showers and storms during the afternoon hours along the sea breeze front. However, uncertainties grow regarding an advancing frontal boundary moving south across the region going into tomorrow night. HREF guidance shows a wide variance of results, ranging from an organized line of showers/storms to little to no activity. While the worst case scenario would have some level of impacts, even the strongest winds (from the HRRR) have only a few paintballs that would exceed 35+ mph gusts. So will have to see how future guidance hones in on this advancing frontal boundary and the associated convection with this front.

Overall, the weather pattern features ridging aloft across the central U.S., but a few weak waves may locally weaken the ridging, resulting in better shower/storm coverage going through the rest of the week. This ridge axis will also shift eastward by the end of the week, as a weak cutoff low deepens across northern Mexico. How long this troughing feature lingers across that general region remains to be seen, so will have to keep an eye on how guidance evolves. While the main dynamical energy remains northwest of the region, the weakened ridging overhead will be the source of why more widespread shower/storm activity is expected to increase through the end of the week and into this weekend. Overall, temperatures will run a few degrees above normal through early week, prior to retreating back to near normal levels mid to late week as convective activity becomes more widespread.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 550 PM CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Brief seabreeze showers should taper off this evening with coverage & intensity remaining too low to warrant including in the current TAF cycle during this evening. Light variable winds expected overnight with patchy fogs/MVFR CIGs possible early Tuesday morning in spots. Isolated IFR conditions possible in some spots. FLs improve to VFR on Tuesday with showers/storms possible along the sea breeze Tuesday afternoon. Greater coverage and confidence in showers & storms compared to today, thus have opted for PROB 30groups for KIAH and southward from 18-00z. A backdoor front around the ArkLaTex region is progged to fire off some additional storms/outflow during the 23-07z time frame. Low confidence in exact timing but have including an additional prob30 group to cover this secondary band of convection.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1203 AM CDT CDT Mon Jun 1 2026

Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail through late Tuesday. By Wednesday morning, winds will transition to northeasterly to easterly as a weak boundary approaches the waters. Winds transition back to east-southeasterly to southeasterly by Wednesday night with wind speeds occasionally strengthening near the caution flag threshold going into the weekend. The occasionally stronger onshore flow will lead to gradually building seas towards the end of the work week. Another consequence of the occasionally stronger onshore flow is an increased risk of rip currents beginning around midweek. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible daily beginning on Monday, but expect these chances to increase towards the end of the work week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 91 73 88 / 10 30 30 30 Houston (IAH) 76 91 75 89 / 0 30 40 40 Galveston (GLS) 80 88 79 87 / 10 20 30 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.