textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected tonight and Wednesday. A few storms could become strong to severe with hail and heavy downpours as the main risk.

- A cold front is expected Wednesday night followed by drier weather for the remainder of the work week.

- Rain chances could return this weekend as another coastal trough develops over the Texas Coast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected overnight and continuing into at least Wednesday morning or early afternoon. The main features supporting this active weather pattern will continue to be the combination of a mid-upper level trough with embedded vort maxes moving over eastern Texas and a surface coastal trough near the Mid/Upper Texas Coast supplying warm moist air from the Gulf.

At midnight, the GOES 19 Satellite WV Imagery showed the mid level trough slowly making its way across eastern Texas while the Total Precipitable Water Imagery showed PWATs of 1.5-1.8 inches moving northward into the Upper Texas Coast. Numerous to widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms blanketed most of Southeast Texas, with some showers indicating rainfall rates of 2-3 inches at times. These heavier showers have mostly been over rural areas and are moving at a pace fast enough to not lead to significant flooding. However, ponding of water along roadways and over low- lying and poor drainage areas is likely, in particular over the urban areas. Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing hail and SPC continues a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe thunderstorms (specifically for large hail) for areas near and south of I-10 and near and west of I-45 through early Wednesday. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and verify the road conditions before starting your commute.

Hi-Res models have not been handling well the location and coverage of these showers and storms, but the latest guidance does hint at periods of showers and storms persisting through the late morning or early afternoon hours on Wednesday as the coastal trough continues to drift near the Upper Texas coast while another mid level disturbance moves overhead. Areas near and south of I-10 are still expected to have the higher PoPs, closest to the coastal trough and where the higher amounts of moisture and instability reside.

A fairly progressive cold front is progged to move across Southeast Texas late Wednesday into early Thursday. This will help push the stubborn coastal trough towards the west-central Gulf waters and bring in drier air behind the FROPA. Not much daytime "cooling" is expected with this front, as highs remain mostly in the upper 70s inland on Thursday and Friday, but will at least give us a little break from the rain through the end of the week. The nighttime lows will at least be cooler, ranging in the upper 40s to mid 50s inland both Thursday night and Friday night.

Rain chances could increase this weekend as moisture returns and another coastal trough develops over the Texas Coast while a mid- upper level trough moves across Texas. A stronger cold front looks to move through the region sometime late Sunday or Monday. Temperatures seem to be a little cooler behind this second front with daytime temperatures possibly in the 60s.

Cotto

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Widespread SHRA with embedded TSRA is impacting much of SE TX tonight. This will likely continue into the early morning hours before tapering. Even though the bulk of TSRA is expected to remain south of IAH, we opted to add a VCTS prevailing at IAH at the beginning of the TAF to signal the potential for a few lightning strikes in the vicinity of the terminal. Vis/cigs is turning out to be a more difficult forecast. IFR/MVFR is likely within heavier SHRA/TSRA. However, there appears to be a region of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis in the wake of this SHRA/TSRA activity to our west and southwest. Guidance is not handling these vis/cigs very well. But we opted to add a MVFR prevailing for later this morning as the heavier SHRA/TSRA exit the region. For now, we expect most areas to be VFR by mid/late morning. The NBM suggests MVFR could linger into the afternoon. We decided to not buy into this scenario yet since the NBM has had a lower cig bias in recent days.

MARINE

Issued at 1146 PM CST Tue Nov 10 2026

Several more rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected through at least Wednesday afternoon as a surface coastal trough meanders near the Mid/Upper Texas Coast and an upper level disturbance moves overhead. Some storms will be capable of producing gusty winds, locally higher seas, lightning strikes, and hail. A Marine Weather Statement has been issued for the bays and Gulf waters through Wednesday at 6 AM CST. A cold front is progged to move over the coastal waters sometime late Wednesday or early Thursday, with drier air following behind it. Moderate offshore winds and elevated seas are expected in the wake of the front. Caution Flags may be needed for Thursday. Drier conditions anticipated for Thursday and Friday along with light northeast to east winds.

Moderate to strong onshore winds expected this weekend into early next week as the local pressure gradient tightens in response to a coastal trough developing over the Texas Coast followed by another cold front moving through the region. Caution Flags and/or Advisories are likely. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are also expected Saturday through early next week.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 58 79 55 78 / 30 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 61 78 61 79 / 70 70 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 74 66 75 / 80 70 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.