textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected today and Tuesday, mainly focused over areas near and south of I-10.

- High temperatures will generally be in the low to mid 90s inland and the upper 80s to lower 90s along the coast through the end of the work week. Isolated spots west of I-45 could see highs in the upper 90s at times.

- Rain chances increase towards mid-week as tropical moisture returns to the area. Locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour is possible.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The southern periphery of a mid-level high pressure situated over northern Texas and Oklahoma will continue expand further into Southeast Texas today into Tuesday, and mid-level heights are expected to rise to 593-594 dams by tonight. We also have fairly dry air along the mid-levels today. As of 11 am, the GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water Imagery indicated lower surface moisture amounts compared to yesterday, roughly around 1.9-2.1 inches across most of Southeast TX. Thus, although there is still plenty of moisture to work with, the stronger influence of the high pressure and drier air along the mid-levels will help suppress shower development for today. Look for isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, mostly over areas near and south if I-10 for this afternoon, in particular around the seabreeze region. Some brief periods of heavy rainfall is possible and ponding of water along roadways can occur at times. Otherwise, expect sunny to partly cloudy skies, light winds, and high temperatures in the lower to mid 90s.

A similar weather pattern is expected on Tuesday, with the potential for just a little more coverage (20-40% PoPs) as mid- level moisture increases while vorticity maxes (somewhat weak) move near and east of Southeast TX. Temperatures will also increase, with highs expected to range between 94-98 deg F inland and 90-93 deg F along the coasts. The heat indices will peak between 105-108 deg F, but some isolated spots could reach 109-110 deg F for a few hours. Make sure to continue to practice heat safety if you plan to work or spend time outdoors.

A bit more of an active weather pattern looks to set up on Wednesday as the high pressure shifts into the California region and a surge of moisture increases our local PWs to 2.1-2.3 inches south of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. For areas along and south of I-10, the forecast carries scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms while areas north of I-10 continue with isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms. With the amount of available surface moisture, locally heavy rainfall with rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour is possible and could lead to ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor drainage. Increasing cloud coverage and rain chances will help bring the high temperatures back into the lower to mid 90s range on Wednesday but will still feel hot and humid with the increase in low-level moisture. For the rest of the week and upcoming weekend, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each day as several disturbances pass through and the high pressure remains over Southwest CONUS. I guess some of us will have to start cutting the grass again every 4 days with all this rainfall :/ ...but at least it stays green :D Cotto

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the 18Z cycle. This afternoon, there is a possibility of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms among the southern TAFs sites as the sea breeze moves northward. PROB30s were included for these sites during the 19z to 24z period, with convection possibly starting earlier for LBX and GLS. Going into the evening and overnight hours, winds will be calm and VRB. There is a possibility of MVFR cigs/vis for CXO and LBX during the early morning hours, but current model confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs for this cycle. Models are also in agreement concerning showers and possible thunderstorms reaching IAH after 19Z tomorrow, warranting the use of a PROB30 at the end of the period.

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected through the end of the work week. A bit less coverage in showers and thunderstorms (10-25%) expected today and Tuesday as high pressure builds over Southeast TX. Higher shower and storm chances between 40-70% expected Wednesday into the end of the week as moisture rises and disturbances move overhead. Locally heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, strong winds of 20-30 knots are possible in and around strong storms. Storms can also produce outflow boundaries containing stronger brief wind gusts. Conditions will remain favorable for isolated to scattered showers and storms throughout the weekend.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 96 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 Houston (IAH) 79 95 79 92 / 0 30 10 60 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 83 90 / 0 20 50 70

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.