textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Higher chance of showers/thunderstorms today, especially in southern/coastal counties. Strong downpours and instances of locally heavy rainfall likely.

- Drier and hotter pattern to take hold by Tuesday and beyond, especially this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

The forecast has not changed significantly, and thus neither will this forecast discussion (at least the first half). Hot weather and daily showers/storms are still anticipated through early next week. Same pattern remains in place with ridging situated over the Four Corners and off the East Coast. A weakness between both has allow for scattered showers and storms these last several days, and will continue to do so today as well. Most of this activity should occur during the daytime along the sea breeze, mainly over the southern 2/3rds of our CWA where CAM guidance has suggested deep tropical moisture to be present (2-2.5 inches). Storms over the last few days have been pulsy in nature, slow moving and vertically stacked with suboptimal organization. Regardless, we have seen gusty winds, frequently lightening and strong downpours with storms on previous days, thus they cannot be ruled out for today either. Once again, areas that don't receive rainfall will see fairly hot weather with highs in the 90s and heat indicies in the triple digits. Patchy fog may also develop in spots during the early morning hours as well.

Rain chances will tapper off into Tuesday as ridging builds across the Gulf. 850mb temperatures rise again, bringing hotter conditions through the end of the work week. Next weekend, the ridge is progged to shift north into the SE CONUS and intensify. Midlevel heights are forecasted to reach 596-598 dam over SE Texas by this point, putting them over the 99th climatological percentile (NAEFS). LREF & NBM ensembles suggest greater chances for triple digit high temperatures occuring on these days, as well as early next week. The overall heat stress will still be contingent on how efficient mixing is each afternoon, though heat related hazard headlines cannot be ruled out (Wednesday at the earliest, more likely this weekend).

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 645 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue to develop across the coastal waters and along the islands early this morning, before spreading inland by mid/late morning. Confidence in timing is moderate, but the general consensus brings SHRA/TSRA mostly between 17-22Z. Locally heavy rain will be possible, likely bringing low ceilings as well as dropping visibility to less than a mile and bringing erratic wind gusts. Rain should gradually taper off from the coast inland by early this evening. SSE winds will become light and variable tonight. Outside of any storms, VFR conditions can be expected.

JM

MARINE

Issued at 1121 PM CDT Sun Aug 9 2026

Light to moderate onshore winds and seas of 2-4 feet are expected throughout the next several days. Chances for scattered showers and storms will be greatest during the early morning through early afternoon hours today. Rain chances taper off Tuesday as temperature start to heat up once again. Winds and seas increase slightly during the second half of the work week. Caution flags may be warranted at times.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 96 76 97 76 / 20 20 10 0 Houston (IAH) 92 79 95 79 / 60 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 84 91 83 / 70 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.