textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Rounds of showers and thunderstorms will persist through the next few days. Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches is forecast, with locally higher amounts of 6-8 inches possible in the more organized storms. Flash flooding is possible, especially as we head towards Tuesday.

- After a brief break from the heat and humidity on Monday and Tuesday, dangerous heat builds back in by midweek. Peak afternoon temperatures will rise into the low to mid 90s (31-36 Celsius) with peak heat indices near 103-107 (39-42 Celsius).

- Moderate to high risk of rip currents this weekend, likely continuing into portions of next week with elevated high tides.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 207 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

A bit of an active pattern is taking shape over the area, as deep Gulf moisture continues to filter through the area. That, combined with outflow boundaries from earlier storms, has allowed for scattered to numerous showers/storms. Despite weaker upper level flow, so far storms have been moving quickly enough, and rainfall rates are low enough to not cause any flooding concerns for now. Outside of thunderstorms, the heat continues to build, with heat indices climbing into the triple digits. The storm activity will start to weaken and diminish later this evening, with the loss of daytime heating.

Rain chances really begin to increase early on Monday, as a frontal boundary drifts southward and provides a renewed focus for convection. Given the abundance in moisture (PWs near the climatological max), rainfall will be heavy at times and the flash flooding potential will increase, especially in areas that see the multiple rounds of heavy rain. This will increase further by Tuesday, as the aforementioned boundary drifts further south and our moisture continues to increase. Although there isn't a lot of upper level forcing, instability will remain high so robust thunderstorms are still possible. In the more organized storms, rainfall rates could exceed 2 inches at times. Despite drier soils, these rates will fall as mostly runoff, increasing the threat for flash flooding. That said, there remains some uncertainty with regard to where the heavier precip falls and refinements to the totals are likely over the next couple of days. There is enough confidence in flash flooding to warrant a Flash Flood Watch, which is in effect through Wednesday morning.

Areas that don't see a lot of rain, or if there are larger breaks during peak heating, will have the potential for dangerous heat. This will especially be the case Wednesday and onward, as rain chances increase. While high temperatures may only reach into the lower 90s, RHs will remain elevated and heat indices will approach the 105-108 degree range. Additionally, overnight lows will be quite warm towards the end of the week, as lows only fall into the upper 70s to 80 degrees. This will make overnight relief hard to come by and heat concerns will increase during the latter half of the week.

One caveat to the forecast, especially during the middle of the week, as low pressure develops over SE TX/northern Mexico early in the week. Guidance is fairly consistent on this low developing and tracking eastward; however, there remains discrepancies in the location and timing of the surface low. At this point, the low will move over the area on Wednesday, during the latter half of the week, which would mean higher rain chances and a renewed potential for flash flooding. This is conditional on where the low tracks, but it's something to monitor in the coming days.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 702 AM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Isolated to scattered SHRA and isolated TSRA will develop this morning and become more scattered to numerous in coverage this afternoon into this evening across area terminals. Localized MVFR ceilings and visibility reductions will be possible near showers and storms that develop. More widespread MVFR ceilings will develop over area terminals especially along and north of the I-10 corridor by Monday morning. S/SE winds around 10 knots with occasional higher gusts will prevail through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun Jun 14 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas of 3 to 6 feet are expected through early next week. Scattered showers and storms become more widespread overnight through Monday as a weak front stalls out over SE Texas. A passing disturbance along the Texas coast will bring moderate to strong onshore winds and higher seas early Wednesday through Friday afternoon. Continued onshore flow will result in a moderate to high risk of rip currents with elevated tides around 3.1- 3.6 ft (MLLW).

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 83 73 85 / 70 80 60 70 Houston (IAH) 78 86 75 84 / 50 80 80 90 Galveston (GLS) 83 88 79 86 / 20 40 80 90

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through Wednesday morning for TXZ163-164-176>179- 195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.