textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather (near record temperatures) will persist through midweek.

- Periods of late night and early morning fog possible on a daily basis.

- Rain chances remain minimal today, then increase Wednesday into Thursday ahead of an approaching disturbance. A cold front is expected to reach the area late Thursday, bringing a stronger round of showers and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1101 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Ridging aloft will keep warm and benign conditions though mid week with temperatures still 10-20 degrees above normal. Highs will still be in the upper 70s/80s with lows in the 60s/lower 70s. Rain chances remain slim for today, though the abundant moisture and light winds will be sufficient for patchy fog. Another round is expected early this morning, and once more overnight into Wednesday morning. A few dense pockets will be possible as well, especially at the typical fog-prone spots.

An upper level low should swing through the Desert southwest on Wednesday. As it does, several weaker shortwaves & PVA impulses will pass out ahead of this trough. This will provide lift necessary for some scattered showers and storms during the day on Wednesday. Expect these rain chances to rise further Thursday as a cold front approaches SE Texas. The FROPA itself appear to be more "messy" compared to the "clean" & faster scenarios some guidance showed in days prior. Best timing has it progged to enter SE Texas as early as Thursday evening, due to a shortwave spanning Central/Deep South Texas ahead of the main trough. The front then slows down over SE Texas, before the main upper level trough passes east of the state, forcing the front off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning.

The greatest forcing and lift seems to occur with the initial shortwave from Thursday evening into Friday morning. LREF still shows bulk shear around 40-50 knots, though instability remains lack- luster, generally under 1200 J/KG. Could get a stronger storm or two, though the severe weather risk is rather low at this point. Still, we'll have PWs of at least 1.3" during the day, up to around 1.7-1.9" in the evening as this disturbance moves through the area. Currently WPC has areas northwest of the US-59 Corridor under a Marginal (level 1/5) to Slight (level 2/5) Risk of Excessive Rainfall during this period. Rainfall totals over this area are forecasted to range from around 0.5-1.0 inch(es), though isolated higher totals up to 3 inches cannot be ruled out. 3-hr Flash Flood Guidance over SE Texas is around 4-6 inches, though the 1-hr FFG is just a tad above 3 inches in some places within the outlooked area. With that in mind, it's possible that we'll see some minor street flooding & ponding on roadways, mainly in more urban areas with poor drainage.

Saturday has trended drier as models show a tad higher confidence in the front being off the coast by this point (though it could stall offshore). Deterministic models show the better portion of Sunday being drier too, though onshore flow is slated to make a return in the evening. Models are out of phase again at this point, making it hard to give specifics for Monday, but on the whole it appears to be warmer and wetter with a warm front moving onshore & lifting north. Long range ensembles are still pinging at a more significant cool- down around/after Thanksgiving, though that's about as much that could be said about it this far out.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

VFR conditions, along with SE winds at 08-12 KTS, currently over all SE TX sites. Winds will relax overnight to around 5 KTS. We might see some lower vis over a few sites due to fog during the overnight hours. IFR-MVFR cigs could also develop tonight and continue into Tues morning, slowly lifting and scattering out a bit during the late morning to afternoon hours. Winds will be around 10 KTS on Tues, with some higher gusts on occasion.

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MARINE

Issued at 1101 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow can be expected thoughout tdoay. Patchy fog inland may spill into portions of the northern bays & upper ship channel during the late night and early morning hours through Wednesday. Caution flags may be needed for portions of Wednesday and Thursday. These higher winds and seas may also bring a high risk of rip currents along Gulf-Facing beaches. Rain chances will also be on the rise with isolated/scattered activity returning Wednesday, increasing into Thursday ahead of a cold front. This cold front will be a tad slow to move through the area, but should move off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday. Northerly winds and drier conditions briefly settle in behind the front, though some lingering showers will be possible over the weekend, should the front stall closer to shore.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 70 85 66 83 / 10 10 10 40 Houston (IAH) 68 86 68 84 / 10 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 71 81 71 80 / 0 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.