textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid conditions continue through the end of the week. Heat index values in the 90s at the end of the work week.

- Rain chances increase over the weekend as a cold front moves into the region. - Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Tomorrow (or today depending on when you read this...whichever day April 14th is) is Look Up at the Sky Day. You can start to observe the holiday early by looking up at the sky early Tuesday morning to observe the International Space Station flying over Space City. This is highly dependent on the cloud coverage in your particular area during the 6:04am to 6:10am timeframe...which will be mostly cloudy for a lot of us. If you want to make an attempt at seeing it, look to the southwestern horizon around 6:04am. It'll be a bit low on the horizon though (max altitude of 32 degrees), so you might have to use your imagination. There will be plenty of blue skies to enjoy in the afternoon though as drier air filters in as southwesterly flow remains in place. Looking at 700mb, a pocket of much drier air moves in from the southwest on Tuesday (along with slightly warmer temperatures) leading to the development of a capping inversion aloft. This will keep rain chances slim to none for most of Southeast Texas through the end of the work week. Some under the cap light showers can't be ruled out during the afternoons.

The main exception to the slim to no rain chances comes on Wednesday for portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods. As an upper level trough sweeps through the central CONUS midweek, it will aid in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western Texas. It's not entirely out of the question for a few storms to clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods on Wednesday afternoon/evening especially with favorable placement of a jet streak (right entrance region) and a LLJ, but the storms will be fighting an uphill battle if they move this direction due to previously mentioned capping inversion.

PW values begin to increase towards the end of the work week, so some isolated streamer showers cannot be ruled out. We'll still have that capping inversion aloft in place, so this potential is on the low side...but not exactly zero. Temperatures will be on an upward trend throughout the work week with highs in the low to mid 80s through midweek. By the end of the work week, 850mb temperatures increase leading to high temperatures peaking in the upper 80s. The probability of high temperatures reaching the 90 degree mark are low on Thursday/Friday, but they aren't zero! Either way, the increased low-level moisture will lead to heat index values in the low to mid 90s. Low temperatures will be mainly in the upper 60s to low 70s through the work week. Going into the weekend is when the forecast gets interesting once again as a cold front approaches.

I personally would like to take credit for this cold front (assuming model trends hold) as I recently claimed that our next cold front would be in 7 months. Mother Nature is looking to prove me wrong and I will GLADLY take this L. An upper level trough with an embedded upper low will transition from the Pacific Northwest on Thursday to the Four Corners region by Friday. Surface low pressure subsequently develops through lee cyclogenesis near Oklahoma/Kansas. This low then travels northeastward towards the Great Lakes region, which pushes a cold front into Southeast Texas late Saturday/early Sunday. The exact timing is still a bit uncertain at this time, but there is good consensus on PW values surging near or above the 90th percentile (~1.57"). Showers and storms are likely along and potentially ahead of the frontal boundary as it pushes through the region. Showers may linger into Sunday. Northeasterly winds will be a bit breezy in the wake of the front, especially near the coast through Sunday.

It's too early to be too specific on temperatures, but we can take a look at things probabilistically again! The probability of high temperatures below 80 degrees increases sharply to 70-90% for Sunday and Monday. The probability for low temperatures below 60 degrees increases to 50-70% for areas north of I-10 and 20-40% elsewhere for Saturday night. For Sunday night, these probabilities increase to 60- 90% for the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods and 20-50% elsewhere. There's plenty of time for the forecast to change and evolve, but the probabilities for seasonal temperatures are looking good! :D

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Lingering showers from this afternoon and early evening have fully dissipated with expectations to not see much more tonight thanks to building high pressure. Instead concerns will be more focused on the cloud cover and the expected CIGs for the overnight period as multiple CAMs suggest a return to MVFR CIGs by around midnight. These conditions are expected to hold for most of the TAF sites through the overnight and morning hours with most CAMS not seeing a return to VFR until around noon tomorrow. Otherwise, look for winds to once again pick up tomorrow afternoon with gusts upwards of 20 to 23 kts possible at the surface.

MARINE

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow throughout the work week. There will be periods where winds increase to the caution flag threshold, especially Tuesday night into Wednesday morning and later in the work week. Due to the persistent onshore flow, slightly elevated water levels remain in the forecast throughout the work week as P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide. While coastal flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches along with increased risk of rip currents. A cold front and associated showers/storms are expected to push offshore late Saturday/early Sunday bringing a period of elevated offshore winds and seas that will likely prompt Small Craft Advisories through the remainder of the weekend.

Batiste

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1105 PM CDT Mon Apr 13 2026

Still monitoring a few gauges that are either in or forecasted to crest into action stage in the Lavaca/Navidad River basin following Sunday's heavy rainfall event. The Navidad River at Sublime (SBMT2) is crested in action stage Monday afternoon/evening and has already fallen below action stage. The Navidad River at Morales (MRAT2) is forecast to crest into action stage early Tuesday morning, then fall out of it by Wednesday morning. Lastly, the Navidad River at Strane Park (LSNT2) is forecast to crest into action stage Tuesday evening, then fall out of it around Wednesday afternoon. These rises are based on routed flow from upstream. Remember that you can monitor updated river forecasts via the NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/)

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 82 67 84 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 70 84 70 84 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 72 79 / 0 0 0 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.