textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid through the end of the week with only a few/spotty showers.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Heavy rainfall will be possible, which could result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

- Marine and Beach Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. There is also moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Fair weather conditions prevail across the region with partly cloudy skies, breezy southeasterly winds and afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 80s. With the sfc high pressure to our east (centered over northeastern Gulf), warm and humid conditions will prevail through early this weekend. Another warm and muggy night is expected with skies becoming cloudy overnight. Patchy low-lying fog cannot be ruled out. Lows will generally be in the low 70s.

A similar day is on tap for Friday with highs generally reaching the low to mid 80s. A tightening pressure gradient ahead of a deepening trough over the central Plains and an approaching cold front will result in a breezy day with gusts from 15 to 25 mph at times, mainly in the afternoon.

Increasing rain chances and breezy to windy conditions are the main weather story this weekend as the well-advertised cold front make its way towards southeast TX. The aforementioned trough will continue to push the cold front through Texas late Friday into early Saturday. With persistent warm and humid southerly flow and mid- level vorticity maxes aloft, pre-frontal showers with a few storms cannot be ruled out in the morning. Latest guidance brings the boundary across the Brazos Valley region early in the morning, reaching the Houston metro area by early Saturday afternoon and the coast by early evening. The severe weather risk is low, but will continue to keep an eye on potential excessive rainfall. Models show some areas with PWAT values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range; which is near the climatological maximum for this time of year. Therefore, pockets of heavy rain are possible, leading in minor street flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

A cooler and slightly drier air mass will filter in behind the front, by early Sunday. Highs will generally remain in the low to mid 70s. Drier conditions will prevail across most of the region, but a few showers will be possible across our far southern/southwestern counties due to high PWs and the return of southeasterly warm winds.

Mid to upper level ridge sets up across the Rockies/Plains by late Sunday/ early Monday; however some weak disturbances embedded in the west to southwest flow aloft will keep daily rain chances in the forecast after Monday. As of now, the best rain/storm chances will remain confined to our southwestern counties.

Near seasonal temperatures are progged for early next week with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s on Monday and in the 70s by Tuesday.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 604 AM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

MVFR cigs are ongoing at most terminals this morning, though IFR cigs have developed near CXO, IAH, and SGR. Have generally included IFR cigs (either prevailing or TEMPOs) from SGR/IAH northward for the next couple hours. Cigs will rise to VFR by this afternoon with breezy SSE winds. Cigs will once again drop to MVFR later tonight.

Young

MARINE

Issued at 151 PM CDT Thu Apr 16 2026

Surface high pressure centered across the northeastern Gulf will continue to maintain onshore winds across the Upper Texas coast. Small craft should exercise caution, especially over the bays and nearshore waters, as moderate seas and southeast winds of 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots prevail until the arrival of the next cold front on Saturday.

Scattered showers and storms are expected along the frontal boundary. The primary impacts will be elevated winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Winds from 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 knots and seas 8 to 10 ft well-offshore will be possible late Saturday into Sunday evening. Near gale-force gusts cannot be ruled out at times, particularly late Saturday night into early Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued. Light to occasionally moderate east to southeast winds and seas around 3 to 5 ft will return and persist through the upcoming week.

Beach Conditions: Persistent onshore winds will keep the potential for elevated tide levels through at least Saturday, with some locations forecasted to rise at or slightly above 3.0 ft (MLLW). There is also a moderate risk of rip currents along all Gulf- facing beaches through the weekend.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 88 68 87 68 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 87 70 85 71 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 80 73 79 73 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355.