textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A freeze warning is in place for several coastal counties, as some will experience their first freeze of the season early Sunday morning. There is some potential for a brief hard freeze in the coldest spots of Houston and Madison counties.

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist through at least Sunday, and potentially Monday's low tide as well, causing continued navigation issues on area bays. Strong winds and high seas will also be a concern on Gulf waters through Sunday morning before diminishing.

- Very dry conditions will persist today and early into the new week, and will be paired with increasingly dry vegetation. Much lighter winds will mitigate the threat for explosive fire growth, but fires will still be able to start easily in these conditions. Continue to exercise caution with fire and with equipment that can throw sparks. Heed all local fire restrictions and bans.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle of next week as our pattern of quickly successive weather systems continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

A very subtle reinforcing front has about made its way through the entire area just before midnight, and high pressure will settle over the region through the night, locking in light, variable, but mostly offshore winds for a cool, dry day Sunday. Given the continued very dry conditions that will also persist for the day, the change to light winds rather than Saturday's gusty performance will do a great deal to ease the potential for more rapid fire growth. But with RH just as low or slightly lower than Saturday and vegetation that is only getting drier, caution with (or postponing use of) anything that could cause sparks and flame will still be a good idea if it's not for a professional burn that requires very specific conditions you've pre-planned for.

Look for that high pressure to drift across area Gulf waters through the night, setting us up for another chilly night, with a light freeze this time held generally north of the Houston metro. Expectations here are the high will move far enough off to the east that we'll get some light onshore flow to set up later in the night. It won't make a big difference...but between the end of cold advection, a little more mechanical mixing, and maybe even a small hint of warm advection near the coast, it can well be the difference between a cold night in the mid-30s and a night that features a light freeze. With that said, light onshore winds may bring in just enough moisture, while staying calm enough for half of the area or so closer to the coast to manage some frost development towards dawn. So, even if we don't quite reach freezing, you may want to spend another night protecting anything that's even frost-sensitive.

That light onshore flow, along with plenty of sun, looks to give us a bit more warmth on Monday, and while still a dry afternoon, at least not quite as dry as the weekend. If you were only going off the past week or so, you'd think this is a sign we're headed to conditions on the warm side of average for Tuesday...and you'd be wrong. We've got yet another weak cold front set to move through Monday night...kind of a back-door front, really - there isn't a whole lot to it. But, it will chop down any warming trend, and keep conditions right around seasonal averages for Tuesday along with some northeast winds.

Perhaps the more interesting thing this front does is stall out offshore, where a coastal trough develops and lifts back north for the midweek, finally bringing in decidedly more moisture and our first solid chances at rainfall in a while. I still don't expect us to be looking at anything like a drought-buster, but all rain helps given our current drought conditions, and rain chances - especially the closer you get to the coast - look quite high for Wednesday.

Going back to the LREF cluster analysis tool, we can start to try to pick at potential scenarios for this mid-week rain. Compared to last night, the grand ensemble itself is wetter. The highest QPF is still offshore, but coastal counties look to average three- quarters of an inch or more of rain, with more the half to three- quarters inch inland towards the coastal plain and Houston metro, with a quarter-inch to half-inch well inland. Like last night, the top cluster is wetter than the grand ensemble, though it is not the wettest one. What looks to happen here is a northern stream trough is a bit stronger, and its surface reflection may be more effective at drawing our coastal trough up and surging more rain potential farther inland. It also does appear that we may be shaking out some of our dispersiveness concerns from last night. This top cluster has a smaller proportion of the total membership (29 percent of LREF members) but it does so by better dispersing the GEPS members. This top cluster now only has 50 percent of that ensemble. The GEFS, while a bit light in the top cluster, is also better dispersed than the previous night.

One thing that does stand out is that all four clusters in the tool lay out at least some rainfall across the area - there are no real "dry" clusters to be found. This at least helps increase confidence in putting likely PoPs across Southeast Texas, and less concerned that we'll get skunked and have all the rain offshore. Now, I'll probably always have concerns about the models being fully dispersive in this type of quasi-mesoscale setup and I wouldn't rule out an "all the rain offshore" scenario entirely...it's more of a paranoid fear rather than one that has a lot of supporting evidence in the guidance right now.

Of course, with this coastal trough bringing in increased raininess and cloud cover, that will limit temperatures somewhat, but with the influx of a warmer, more humid airmass, we still should see a general trend of increasing temperatures through the midweek. Late this week, we should see things begin to accelerate more as the rainmaker exits the region and our LREF ensemble systems all bring 850 temps up to around the 90th percentile. With this sharp increase in low level temps, afternoon highs Friday and Saturday should make runs to around or above 70, and warm spots on the coastal plain will look to see things push towards the middle 70s. Until, of course, this quick-moving pattern just keeps on pushing, and another cold front arrives sometime late in the weekend. Rain chances with this front aren't nil, but with moisture levels being sapped from the departure of our midweek rainy airmass, I'm keeping PoPs fairly low to start. We have some more time to see how the picture for next weekend evolves.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Gusty north winds will gradually decrease this evening into tonight. However, winds are expected to remain elevated near the coast through early tomorrow morning. For Sunday, winds will generally be light, eventually shifting to a more southerly direction by either late afternoon or evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Strong northeast winds and high seas continue overnight, then diminish through early Sunday morning. Onshore winds return Sunday night before becoming offshore again following yet another cold front on Monday. This front will stall out offshore, before lifting back northward and returning onshore winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Expect more widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday as another weather system pushes through. While the precise location of the heaviest rains is still somewhat fuzzy, the coastal trough acting as the focus for these rains makes it more likely that at least some of the heavier rain showers should be over the Gulf waters.

Low water conditions will persist in the bays Sunday, particularly on upper portions, while moderate to strong northeast winds persist. Though winds become onshore Monday, the advisory may even need to be extended through Monday's low tide cycle.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1214 AM CST Sun Jan 18 2026

Relatively poor RH recovery (by Southeast Texas standards, anyway) to the 55-60 percent range tonight will set us up for another very dry day on Sunday. For another day, look for RH to fall into the upper teens and 20s for all but the beaches. Even there, the most "humid" part of Southeast Texas, should still expect minimum RH around 30 percent. Unlike yesterday, winds should be much lighter, only rising to around 5 mph for the large majority of the area. Winds at the coast may be slightly stronger, but still only in the 5-10 mph range.

Despite a brief return to onshore flow for much of Monday, a weak reinforcing front Monday night will bring winds back to northeasterly. This will prolong the time it will take for more humid conditions to return. Those more humid conditions, and ultimately some solid rain chances, should finally arrive mid- week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 27 60 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 33 58 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 42 54 49 62 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ235>238- 335>338.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375.