textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry weather and above-normal temperatures will persist, along side a 30 to 80 percent chance of patchy fog in the nighttime and early mornings.

- A strengthening mid to upper level ridge will bring even hotter conditions today through Sunday with temperatures potentially reaching record-breaking values (including the first 90-degree days of the year at some locations).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Calm weather with unseasonable heat is still expected these next few days due to surface high pressure and ridging aloft. The upper level ridge remains over the southwest with midlevel heights topping off around 590-592 dam. Over our area, these midlevel heights still fall above the 99th percentile in both the GEFS M-Climate and NAEFS Climate percentiles, and are expected to remain around there through the rest of the forecast period. Today, 850mb temperatures will climb to around 14-18C, reaching upwards of 20C near the 90th to 99th percentile over the weekend based on NAEFS. ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) is still showing values of 0.70-0.95 for max temperatures through the weekend, with shift of tales values approaching 1-2 over portions of eastern Texas during this period. This has been a very persistent signal as we enter a period west- southeasterly flow with low PWs generally below 0.75 inches. Unseasonable heat is still expected through the weekend with afternoon temperatures forecast to be around 10 to 20 degrees above normal.

The aforementioned ridge should flatten early next week as some disturbances & impulses track north of the area. A weak cold front is anticipated to push towards SE Texas as Monday. This features still looks like it'll stall out around or just north of our CWA, but in either such case rain is unlikely. Quiet weather should continue, though we should see max temperatures decrease slightly during this period. Signs suggest that temperatures could rise again near the end of the work week as the ridge aloft strengthens.

Overall warm conditions and slim rain chances are expected through the forecast period. Lows this morning should be in the 50s/60s, though afternoon temperatures today through Sunday are expected to be the hottest in the forecast period, reaching the upper 70s/lower 90s. High temperatures ease down slightly next week, but remain in the 70s/80s during the afternoon hours. Some isolated lower 90s will be possible during the later half of the next work week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 607 PM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026

VFR this evening, though it should be noted there are some controlled burns across the area that could make for some hazy skies near some terminals for the next several hours (ie UTS, and any smaller airports in Trinity/Houston Counties). Otherwise, we'll be keeping an eye out for some shallow late night fog development. Coverage should be highest, and visibility lowest, west of I-45 and along and south of I-10 between about 9-13z. Fog should burn off fairly quickly after sunrise and after some SCT010/020 cloud decks in the mid morning, we'll see skies go mostly sunny again for the remainder of Saturday with SSW winds increasing to 10-15kt. 47

MARINE

Issued at 123 AM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026

Light to moderate south-southwest winds and low seas are expected over the next several days. Rain chances remain slim throughout this period as high pressure looms in the vicinity. Patchy inland fog could spillover into portions in the upper bays and channels nightly. Will also have to monitor for patchy sea fog this weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 88 60 93 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 63 90 64 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 65 79 66 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.