textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend along with some late night to mid morning cloudiness/patchy fog potential this week. Most notable will be the well above normal low temperatures. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return to the forecast during the second part of the week. Late Wednesday night into Thursday and late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning currently have the most favorable chances.

- Cold front passes through Saturday night into Sunday bringing cooler conditions for Easter, though there is some uncertainty as to when the rainfall tapers off.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

It's time for everyone's favorite gameshow...Will There Be Fog? Onshore flow, check! Dew point depressions near or at zero, check! Clear skies heading into the nighttime hours, check! Light winds at the surface/aloft...ehh...let's look at that one a little bit closer. As low pressure continues to deepen in the Upper Midwest, the associated LLJ that extends southwestward into Texas will strengthen overnight. This leads to 25-30 kt winds just over 1 km above the surface. The PBL will be decoupled right around 1 km, so there'll be 20ish kt to work with at the top of the layer. This will likely lead to winds remaining elevated just enough to keep fog from developing for most locations. Could fog still develop? Absolutely! But if there's only just a few observations of reduced visibilities, then you know why! The LLJ is a bit stronger Tuesday night, so it'll be a very similar scenario. Did we really just spend an entire paragraph talking about fog potential just for the answer to be a resounding maybe? You know it!

Over the next couple of days that's really the only thing of note outside of the above normal temperatures (especially the low temperatures). Temperatures will be on a gradual increasing trend going into midweek with high temperatures continuing to reach the mid to upper 80s (upper 70s/low 80s along the coast). Low temperatures will only bottom out in the upper 60s to low 70s tonight. The average high temperature this time of the year is in the upper 70s, so we'll be a few degrees shy of that during the overnight hours...doesn't that just sound lovely?

While we're on the topic of discussing abnormal things, we've been abnormally dry for the past 2+ weeks. The last time that the City of Houston had observable rainfall (more than a trace) was March 11th...nearly three weeks ago! According to my notes that is...not good for the ongoing drought situation. ~83% of Southeast Texas is in at least a severe drought, but there will be a few opportunities for much needed rainfall both around midweek and over the weekend. [Note: this isn't counting the low potential of isolated showers on Tuesday.]

The first opportunity for rainfall comes on Wednesday and Thursday. PW values reach near or above the 90th percentile (~1.50") on Wednesday. Couple that with a LLJ, a passing embedded shortwave, and daytime heating, and we have potential for isolated to scattered showers and storms. On Thursday is when we add a frontal boundary into the mix. As a shortwave trough pushes through the Four Corners region on Wednesday, a subsequent surface low will develop near the Oklahoma Panhandle and drift northeastward. An associated cold front will push southeastward towards Southeast Texas, but not THROUGH Southeast Texas. Moisture convergence along the front will have PW values near the MAX (~1.85"). Combine this with divergence aloft, and we have a fairly decent setup for moderate to heavy rainfall. There remains some uncertainty on the timing, but the best consensus for now looks to be Thursday morning/afternoon. Upper level support is generally better north of I-10, so that explains the higher rain chances for these areas. We'll have a better idea on timing once we get in range of high-resolution model guidance.

We get a break from the rain on Friday, then Saturday into Sunday is when the next chance of rain comes. This is due to another cold front, but this one looks to actually push through thanks to more favorable upper level support. It's a bit early to look too much into the details on the rainfall, but the ingredients do look to be in place for moderate to heavy rainfall. Current timing is late Saturday night into Sunday (Easter). Rain may linger throughout the day on Easter, so be sure to stay up to date on the forecast especially if you have any outdoor plans. Cooler air will follow in the wake of this front going into early next week.

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 652 AM CDT Tue Mar 31 2026

IAH at IFR due to low CIGs. CLL/GLS/HOU/SGR at MVFR due to CIGs/VSBYs. Expect conditions to improve by mid-late morning. VFR conditions expected through the remainder of the day. Winds will be out of the south/southeast at around 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots at times this afternoon. Another round of IFR/LIFR CIGs and VSBYs expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1034 PM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Period of benign marine conditions continues over the next few days with light onshore flow and 2-4 ft seas through midweek. Around midweek, the pressure gradient tightens leading to elevated winds and seas that may prompt caution flags at times, especially late Wednesday into Thursday. This increased onshore flow will increased the risk of rip currents going into the latter half of the week. With various disturbances pushing through midweek and into the weekend, there will be a few opportunities for showers and thunderstorms: Wednesday into Thursday and late Saturday into Sunday as a cold front pushes through. Moderate offshore flow and elevated seas are expected in the wake of this front into Monday.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 87 68 87 70 / 10 0 20 20 Houston (IAH) 85 70 85 72 / 20 0 40 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 71 79 72 / 20 10 50 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.