textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week. Overnight lows will be nearer to average highs than to average lows.

- Rain chances increase this weekend as a frontal boundary stalls near the region.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of storm chances around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Let's go ahead and get the fog talk out of the way...fog began to push into the southern part of Galveston Bay (and subsequently Galveston Island) in the late afternoon hours. With this warmer air continuing to advect over the relatively cooler waters, these intermittent periods of sea fog will continue. Winds will remain elevated going into Thursday night and Friday night though, which could inhibit the extent and intensity of the fog. If fog manages to develop though, it'll be the most impactful along the coast/bay during the overnight to morning hours. With this period of well above normal temperatures continuing, we'll likely see water temperatures gradually rise as well which would be another inhibiting factor for the fog...and that's also our segue into the next forecast topic!

In the City of Houston, we've been on active streak of high temperatures above 80F since February 25th. As of today, March 4th, that puts this streak at 8 days...and we'll definitely continue on this streak going into the weekend. High temperatures on Thursday will top out in the low to mid 80s, then we'll add on 1-2F on top of that for Friday. For low temperatures, expect those to range from the upper 60s to low 70s going into the weekend. A not so fun fact is that our LOW temperature on a few nights will be very close (if not right on the money) to our normal HIGH temperature...yay? The temperature forecast becomes a bit more complicated over the weekend as a frontal boundary moves in and stalls out bringing us our best chances for showers/storms since Valentine's Day...look at that we're 2 for 2 on perfect segues!

Some of us saw some sprinkles, rainfall, and even a few rumbles of thunder on Wednesday. If you missed out on the rain, then your chances for getting any rain are very low on Thursday...kinda low on Friday...and VERY good over the weekend! Let's start things with Friday as moisture begins to pool up in Southeast TX with PW values reaching the 1.4-1.7" range (90th percentile: ~1.39"). The main source of lift on Friday will be a 35-45 kt LLJ overhead with the highest winds over the Brazos Valley. There will be a dry line to our west that may act as an initializer for storms. The 00Z CAMs that go out this far only reflect some sporadic showers throughout the day in our area. If a storm manages to get going, then it would have potential to become strong to severe. SPC has outlined areas generally north of a Columbus-Tomball-Livingston line in a marginal risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5).

Going into Friday night, an approaching frontal boundary overtakes the dry line and this is where the synoptic flow becomes very important. The northern portion of the upper level trough continues on a northeastward trajectory towards the Great Lakes. Meanwhile, a cutoff low develops and drifts southwestward towards the Baja Peninsula where it'll remain over the weekend (put a pin in this for now). This leaves the front with not much synoptic forcing to push it cleanly through. As a result, the front is expected to stall out somewhere in Southeast TX...model guidance varies on how far southward the front makes it before it stalls out on Saturday.

Wherever the frontal boundary stalls out at will be the main area of focus for rainfall over the weekend. With PW values well above the 90th percentile as well, some of this rainfall will be locally heavy at times which could lead to localized instances of minor flooding. Chances for heavy rain stick around into Sunday till the frontal boundary washes out. WPC has portions of Southeast TX outlined in a marginal risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday and Sunday. Before we revisit the upper level low, let's briefly talk about the impacts of the ongoing drought with these rounds of rain moving in. The new drought monitor comes out on Thursday, so this data is only current for another 8-12 hours or so. ~82% of Southeast TX is in a severe to extreme drought and most locations have not seen any rainfall in over two weeks. The rainfall will certainly be beneficial, but the soils may be very dry and compacted in some areas due to drought. This means rainfall can turn into runoff quicker, and we're keeping in mind that periods of moderate to heavy rainfall are expected.

Going into the middle of next week, the aforementioned upper level low will make its way eastward through the state leading to another round of showers and storms ahead of and along the associated frontal boundary. We'll be monitoring this for any severe potential, but heavy rain seems to be more of a certainty. Once the upper level low and the associated front push past us though, model guidance is trending towards more seasonal temperatures...so we have that to look forward to! Until then though, high temperatures will be mainly in the 80s with lows in the 60s/70s.

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Showers (plus one lonely CG strike 15ish SM west of UTS) are close enough to have a short VCSH mention in the UTS TAF before rain winds down this evening, but dry everywhere else. Beyond that, GLS is already at 1/4SM with sea fog, so the TAFs are largely a slightly faster version of persistence, with conditions degrading to low MVFR far north to LIFR at the coastal terminals. Expect gradual return to VFR for the afternoon along with return of breezy south/southeast winds.

MARINE

Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Mar 4 2026

Sea fog began to push into the southern portion of Galveston Bay late Wednesday afternoon. Expecting the fog to drift northward overnight into Thursday morning leading to the issuance of a Marine Dense Fog Advisory through Thursday morning. This advisory is currently only in effect for Galveston Bay and the adjacent nearshore Gulf waters, but could be expanded westward overnight. Chances for fog continues over the next couple of days during the overnight to morning hours. However, elevated winds the next couple of nights may inhibit the extent of the fog.

Outside of the fog, an elongated fetch of light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the end of the week leading to gradually increasing seas. Winds may briefly approach the caution flag threshold at times. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend and around the middle of next week.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 67 86 69 87 / 10 10 10 20 Houston (IAH) 70 85 70 85 / 0 0 0 20 Galveston (GLS) 68 76 68 76 / 0 0 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for TXZ214-313-338- 438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST Thursday for GMZ335-355.