textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing cloudiness later today and tonight. Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday across western parts of the region.

- Cool conditions anticipated Sunday with abundant cloud cover and scattered showers in the area.

- Increasing seas with northeasterly winds gusting to near 30 knots will be possible Sunday into Sunday night over the Gulf waters.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak reinforcing cold front as pushed through the area to continue our more fall-like weather with high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to low 80s with a light north to northeasterly wind and mostly sunny skies. The rather benign weather will continue into Saturday, but increasing moisture and an approaching upper-level disturbance will lead to increasing cloud cover through the day.

This aforementioned upper-level disturbance will be moving south through the Four Corners region today into NW Mexico before very slowly moving through Texas Sunday into Monday. Looking down at the surface, a coastal low begins to deepen down along the Coastal Bend portion of the Texas coast on Saturday. A combination of this strengthening surface low, PVA from the approaching upper-level disturbance, and some decent upper-level divergence will lead to increasing rain chances Saturday night through Sunday. The areas with the best chance to see rainfall will be the counties closest to the coastal low, so for our area it will be the areas near Matagorda Bay. However, I would not out-rule some isolated showers expanding across most of SE Texas on Sunday. The factor that has the most influence on which areas see the best chance for rain on Sunday will be the location of the coastal low. If it ends up a little further north, then those rain chances move north with it. If it ends up developing further south, then it's possible the bulk of the rain stays down in the CRP area.

PWATs on Sunday will be around 1.25-1.5", which is near normal for this time of year, but could still result in a brief heavy shower or downpour. PWATs south of Matagorda Bay will approach the 90th percentile, so if that system moves further north than currently forecasted then some of these higher PWATs could stretch into the Matagorda Bay region. WPC maintains a Level 1 of 4 (Marginal) on their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for Sunday for portions of Jackson, Matagorda, and Wharton counties. Looking at rainfall totals of up to around 0.5" west of the Brazos River, with a trace to 0.25" possible further east. There could be some isolated higher amounts near 1" near Matagorda Bay if some of those heavier showers materialize. Recent dryness has lead to the 3-hour FFG in this area is around 3-4", so the likelihood we would see flash flooding is pretty low. This coastal low will stick around through the start of the workweek, so additional isolated to scattered showers will be possible along the coast through at least Tuesday. A strengthening surface high will begin to stretch across the Southern Plains mid to late week next week to bring the return of mostly sunny and dry conditions.

The developing coastal trough will also lead to increasing winds over the coastal waters (more on that in the Marine Section below) that may bleed over into the immediate coast lead to breezy conditions Sunday into Monday.

Between cloud cover, rain chances, and a northeasterly wind, the temperatures on Sunday are expected to be on the cooler side with highs possibly staying in the mid to upper 60s for most of the region. Temperatures do begin to rebound into the 70s on Monday as the cloud cover and rain chances decrease, and then into the mid to upper 70s by the end of the week as that high pressure builds into the region.

Fowler

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

VFR conditions prevail throughout this forecast cycle. Winds are generally from the NE but are light, resulting in VRB wind TAFs across our region until Saturday morning. At this time, winds strengthen slightly to 5-10kts out of the NE/ENE. Along the coast, winds are a touch stronger with the potential for gusts between 15- 18 kts by late Saturday morning. Low levels are dry, making precip and VSBY concerns negligible. However, a mid-level cloud deck around 4000-6000 ft AGL develops tonight and persists throughout Saturday.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 1057 AM CST Fri Nov 6 2026

A weak front has pushed off the coast resulting in light northeasterly winds this afternoon. Cooler temperatures tonight over the warm coastal waters may lead to an increase in winds to around 15kt with occasional gusts to 20kt, so small craft may need to exercise caution over the Gulf waters after midnight.

A developing coastal low down near CRP will lead to continued strengthening winds across our coastal waters through the weekend. Small Craft Advisories are likely to be issued late Saturday night and continue into Sunday night as the northeasterly winds increase to around 25kt with gusts to 30kt. There will possibly be isolated higher gusts in the offshore waters off of Matagorda Bay on Sunday that we will be monitoring for in the coming forecasts. The stronger winds will also lead to seas building to 6-9ft with isolated higher seas. That developing coastal low will also lead to increased chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms on Sunday.

Winds and seas begin to decrease by Monday as the coastal low weakens, but may see continued chances for isolated showers through Tuesday.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 61 75 56 67 / 0 0 20 30 Houston (IAH) 64 77 58 69 / 0 0 20 30 Galveston (GLS) 69 76 63 71 / 0 0 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.