textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect temperatures to climb into the mid 70s to low 80s through Friday, with increasing humidity and likely fog.

- A stronger system is forecast to arrive late Friday into the weekend, bringing the potential for scattered showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and isolated storms will be possible.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable humidity levels from Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

In the near term, a weak cold front remains nearly stationary just south of I-10. Given the light winds, lingering moisture and a narrow dewpoint depression of only 0 to 2 degF, areas of fog cannot be ruled out through mid-morning.

A ridge of high pressure is building in today, leaving us with a warmer airmass. At the surface, a weak warm front will lift north through the day, resulting in warmer conditions this afternoon. The good news is that it won't be as humid, especially further inland. However, some passing very light showers cannot be ruled out this afternoon along the coastal counties. Some weak shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow aloft will be riding along the ridge. This upper forcing combined with daytime heating and lingering low-level moisture will be enough to produce some light showers. Highs will range from the mid 70s to low 80s. Friday will be dry, turning slightly humid as southerly winds return.

The next weather-maker arrives this Valentine's weekend as a strong upper level trough tracks across the Southern/Central Plains. Deterministic solutions, including the NAM are now in better consensus about timing of this wave, suggesting increasing rain chances mainly from Saturday afternoon through the night. The exception is the CMC, which shows a more progressive wave, exiting the region by early Saturday evening.

Discrepancies remain regarding the strength and evolution of this system, and consequently, the location of the best dynamics and forcing. Based on latest guidance, rain chances are expected across all of SE TX, with the highest probabilities along and north of the I-10 corridor. It is important to point out that the axis of highest QPF will change as this system evolves across the Southern Plains and West TX.

Regarding heavy rainfall and severe weather potential: southerly warm and humid surface flow, paired with dewpoints in the upper 60s and increasing instability, will be conducive for some strong storms across the region. As the associated surface front moves through, there is also the potential for training storms, which could lead to minor street flooding or ponding. This could limit destabilization across the region IF the wave shifts further south, bringing more widespread precipitation to our area. Conversely, will continue to monitor for strong to low-end severe thunderstorms, mainly coinciding with the peak of daytime heating and surface convergence (with the FROPA)in the afternoon and evening. If this scenario verifies, upper jet dynamics and increasing PVA on the nose of a strengthening LLJ will support isolated strong storms. Again, uncertainty remains high regarding the strength and exact location of the strongest storms and/or highest QPF. Therefore, continue monitoring the weather forecast, especially if you have outdoor plans for Saturday afternoon and evening.

Breezy north winds are expected in the wake of the front by early Sunday. While this FROPA will not bring a significant drop in temperatures, it will usher in a drier airmass with dewpoints dropping into the 40s and 50s.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 448 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Periods of fog will be the main story this morning and again this evening into Friday morning. Decreased visibilities this morning will remain generally closer to the coast (LBX, GLS, and intermittently HOU). Fog clears out by 15-16Z for most areas, but may linger around or just off the coast. As a result, there is potential for GLS to have intermittent periods of fog lasting into the afternoon hours. Winds will remain generally light throughout the day with southeasterly winds becoming predominant in the mid to late afternoon for areas near and south of I-10. Model guidance is in agreement on another round of fog and low ceilings this evening into Friday morning. This round is expected to be more widespread and extend further northward, so widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are likely as fog filters in from south to north.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1202 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The main marine concern is patchy/areas of fog, some locally dense, developing overnight into the morning hours, and again tonight into Friday. The weak cold from that brought showers along the coast remains almost stationary between the coastal counties and the islands. This front will serve as a focus for sea fog development. From Friday into the weekend, expect elevated winds and seas as the pressure gradient tightens ahead of the next FROPA. The front is progged to move across the coastal waters by Saturday evening. However, periods of showers and thunderstorms can be expected ahead of the boundary as early as Friday night. Storms on Saturday could potentially become strong. Moderate to occasionally strong offshore winds are expected on Sunday, before weakening by Sunday night and shifting to a more northeasterly to easterly component. Small Craft Advisories will likely be issued through the weekend. Drier weather and light onshore flow are expected early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 79 59 80 63 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 80 60 77 63 / 0 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 67 60 67 61 / 10 0 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ213-214- 227-236>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355.