textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered afternoon showers and storms may bring locally heavy rainfall Today.

- Gradual warming trend with temperatures reaching the upper 80s by the end of the work week.

- Lower rain chances Thursday through the weekend. Cannot rule out some stronger or severe storms on these days either.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Showers and storms are beginning to pop up this afternoon on Doppler Radar. Expect coverage to continue to increase as we get closer to peak daytime heating and storms take advantage of the moist unstable airmass overhead.

We have received a decent amount of rainfall over the last few days, so soils are leaning on the saturated side. WPC has expanded their marginal risk area to encompass the majority of southeast Texas today. At this time the current expectation is that across the risk area rainfall totals will generally be in the 1-3" range. With continued moisture advection from the Gulf, the overhead disturbance, and the potential for storms to train over the same areas, some locations in the risk area could receive rainfall totals around 5-7". Confidence is low on where these higher amounts would be observed. In any case, isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible in urban and low lying areas and areas that have poor drainage.

Rainfall should taper off as we get further into the evening hours. Mid-level heights are expected to rise as ridging becomes established. Not going to completely write off the potential for showers and thunderstorms for Thursday, but they will be more isolated in coverage.

Foggy conditions may develop again during the overnight hours and continue into Friday morning. Some areas may have dense fog, which may result in another Dense Fog Advisory during the morning commute.

We are continuing to monitor Friday through the weekend for another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could become strong. SE Texas will have a zonal flow pattern prevailing; however, a few ripples in the overall pattern will traverse southeast Texas. Conditions around that time are forecast to be on the unstable side of the spectrum. While the more favorable dynamics border the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area, CAPE values across SE Texas will be in around or in excess of 2000 J/kg with shear values around 30-45 kts (both could help storms become organized with a strong updraft). As we get closer to the weekend, Convective Allowing Models (CAMs) should provide a better picture.

For Monday, models indicate a more robust shortwave trough crossing the Plains and ejecting a cold front towards SE TX. Won't get too hung up on the details with it being later in the forecast period, but will need to keep an eye on how far the front will progress into SE Texas (currently forecasted to stall over the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods) and how unstable/moist the airmass overhead will be.

Temperatures through the period will be in the 80s through the remainder of the week with lows in the upper 60s to 70s. By the weekend and into next week highs will be in the upper 80s to low 90s. Lows during the weekend will be in the 70s (with isolated locations in the upper 60s).

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

A messy start to TAFs with fog reducing conditions to LIFR at IAH and SGR and LIFR/IFR cigs at CLL/UTS/CXO. Farther south, MVFR to even VFR conditions are ongoing. Fog should dissipate in the next couple hours, giving way to SHRA developing later this morning. Scattered TSRA will also develop this afternoon with cigs rising back to MVFR/VFR. Highest confidence is at LBX/SGR/IAH/HOU/CXO where TEMPOs were put in the forecast. All other sites have PROB30s. These should end this evening followed by another round of MVFR/IFR cigs at all sites overnight. Some LIFR conditions can't be ruled out as hi-res guidance is hinting at another round of fog in roughly the same locations again tonight.

Young

MARINE

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds should continue through the later half of the work week. A long fetch of these southeasterly winds may bring increased seas at times. This with, periodically higher winds may warrant caution flags at times. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible today with rain chances decreasing into Thursday. Above normal water levels near 3.0 feet MLLW are still expect at each high tide cycle through the end of the work week.

03/Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 66 83 69 / 60 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 68 84 71 / 80 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 73 80 74 / 70 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.