textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry air and gusty winds will enhance the potential for fire spread Saturday, particularly in areas dominated by large amounts of lighter, typically grassy vegetation. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas west of I-45.

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist through at least this weekend, causing continued navigation issues on area bays. Further complicating matters, strong winds building high seas behind the front will generate hazardous marine conditions, and a Small Craft Advisory is in place on coastal waters through Saturday night.

- There is a remote chance of some brief sleet and/or flurries on Saturday night. Though not impactful on its own, this potential highlights the incoming surge of cold air into the area. A light freeze from the northern and west fringes of the Houston metro northward can be expected, with a low to medium chance (50 percent or less) of a brief hard freeze in Madison and Houston counties.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle of next week as our pattern of quickly successive weather systems continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 105 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Friday's cold front passed through the area largely as expected, and is offshore over the coastal Gulf waters, roughly 25 miles from shore. The more conducive environment for rain has allowed showers to develop over the Gulf where Southeast Texas could only manage some sprinkles, and now our focus turns towards the colder, much drier incoming air mass.

The strong winds behind this front are generating hazardous marine conditions on coastal waters and some fire weather concerns, mainly west of the Houston metro and I-45. A fuller discussion of those issues can be found in the marine and fire weather sections below, and summarized in the key messages above. Beyond those, Saturday will be decidedly on the cool side of average, with highs largely in the 50s - in the lower 50s well inland, and the upper 50s closer to the coast. A small area of highs at or just above 60 degrees could emerge around Matagorda Bay, but that's about as high as we can expect for Saturday. With a winds only veering around to northeasterly, we shouldn't look for much different on Sunday, perhaps only a couple degrees warmer. All in all, weekend highs should be around 5 degrees below average or even a little less.

At the peak of the surge of colder, drier air Saturday night, we should look for quite chilly lows. At this point, the mass of colder air will be in place, while the sky clears out and winds finally become light. This will be a setup for strong radiational cooling, pushing temperatures to around or below freezing for most of the area. Chances of a light freeze are quite high even into the rural coastal plain southwest of the Houston metro, and edging into the northern and western edge of the metro. Chances for freezing temps are really only low in the Houston core and along the immediate coast. On the flip side, while cold, things should not crater into dangerously cold territory - potential for a hard freeze, with multiple hours below 25 degrees is low, less than 30 percent, for nearly all the area. The key exception to this is in Madison and Houston counties, our northernmost counties. Here, the NBM probabilities of dipping below 25 degrees is in the 60 to 75 percent range. A little more likely than not, but not quite enough confidence for a hard freeze warning. Should that confidence increase during the day, that warning may need to be issued.

For those that like it cold, this weekend looks quite wonderful...albeit with a bit of a need to protect against some freezing temps Saturday night/Sunday morning. Remember those Ps - people, pets, plants, and pipes - and if any are vulnerable to a light freeze, make sure they're all set today. If you are up in those northernmost areas, the potential for a hard freeze is high enough that you may want to consider protections against that if you are critically vulnerable or know you live in a locally cold spot. If you are a fan of warmer weather and do not relish the thought of a light freeze, take heart - with this pattern of quickly moving weather systems, this is largely a one-night only visit. It will still be chilly early next week, but the threat of freezing temps wipes out, and the trend in temps will be upwards.

Part of the reason for the warmup being fairly slow will be the passage of another cold front on Monday. It may actually help boost up temps slightly on Monday with the return of onshore flow, but after it passes, it will take us a step backwards with slightly cooler conditions. This front doesn't look to bring in a meaningfully colder airmass, so ultimately it's just a short blip in the trend of the week's weather making its way gradually upwards heading into mid-week.

While getting warmer, mid-week will also bring us our next decent chance for rainfall, with a focus on the Wednesday-Thursday time frame. The primary mechanism here will be the remnants of that Monday cold front. It stalls out offshore, then reorganizes itself into a surface trough, and lifts its way back northward towards the area. It will funnel in moisture more effectively with a finally somewhat persistent fetch of onshore flow. From the name, it's probably somewhat obvious that the coast will have the best potential for rainfall. How deep any sort of rain swath will push inland will depend pretty strongly on the strength of the trough and how far north it's able to push.

For what it's worth, the LREF, a multi-ensemble ensemble, manages an average of at least a quarter-inch of rain for all of our area, and exceeding a half- inch closer to the coast. Not a drought- busting amount by any stretch, but at least a nice bit of help for all of us. Perhaps making me a bit more optimistic is that in the cluster analysis of the LREF, the top cluster (responsible for 35 percent of LREF members) is even wetter than the grand ensemble - closer to half an inch for the large majority of the area. Now to pour a bit of cold water on that info - that top cluster contains 90 percent of the GEPS (Canadian) ensemble members, and only 3 percent of the GEFS members. This flips in cluster 2, which is 83 percent of the GEFS and 5 percent of the GEPS. While it's not an immediate reason to discount the optimism, it does indicate we may have some systematic bias issues that we need to work out before we get super confident in even more rain. On the bright side, none of these clusters are particularly dry, so hopefully it's more just a matter of dialing in how much rain folks see, rather than if they'll see it.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 549 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

VFR conditions prevailing at all terminals through the period. Winds are generally out of the N this morning with the FROPA well offshore and speeds will be around 10-25 kts, gusting to 20-25 kts (could gust closer to 30 kts for KGLS).

MARINE

Issued at 105 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Another in a series of recent cold fronts has pushed off the Gulf Coast, and while producing no more than a handful of sprinkles across Southeast Texas, has succeeded in generating a cluster of showers over the coastal Gulf waters that should persist overnight until the front has pushed far offshore. In the wake of that front, winds have turned northwesterly to northerly, and should increase in strength through the night and Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for all of the coastal waters, and while they are just beginning this strengthening process at midnight, should reach a maximum strength well in the advisory criteria this morning on the bays, and even peaking close to the gale threshold farther offshore - roughly 20 NM out from shore and farther.

The quick return of stronger offshore winds paired with already low astronomical tide levels on the bays will keep low water conditions should through the weekend. Onshore winds return Sunday night as the unsettled weather pattern continues. Another cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

After several days without rain from a lack of rainfall on recent frontal passages, more serious fire weather conditions may emerge on Saturday. A new surge of drier air, will bring relative humidity below 30 percent area-wide, even near the coasts. RH around or below 20 percent can be expected farther inland, dropping to around 15 percent in the driest spots. This surge of dry air is brought in by gusty north/northeast winds, creating a weather environment conducive to fire spread. While previous frontal passages have had similar conditions, they have benefited from fuel moistures around or above average. With this dry and gusty day, however, Texas A&M fuel moisture data indicates a drier fuelscape, with drier than average fuel moisture beginning to emerge.

Taken together, this will create elevated fire weather conditions for much of the area, particularly where lighter fuels less than an inch in diameter tend to dominate. In more forested areas with larger and heavier fuels, the dry and windy day will still elevate fire weather concerns, but lingering moisture in these larger types of vegetation should still provide some mitigation. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the portion of our area around and west of the Brazos and Navasota rivers. This area will have not only the driest, windiest conditions, but also fuel environments that will respond more to these weather factors.

Beyond Saturday, we'll need to continue to monitor conditions into early next week, as humidity will not meaningfully return to the area until mid-week. Fortunately, the gusty winds should diminish by Sunday, providing a potential brake on how quickly the weather could push fire spread, even as dry conditions persist. Another front will also be passing through the area on Monday. Moderation will come towards the middle of the week, with the return of more humid air and meaningful rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 55 28 60 34 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 58 33 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 58 42 57 49 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ176-195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.