textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Widely scattered showers (and an isolated rumble of thunder) will be possible through this evening.

- Rain chances increase Saturday into Sunday morning as a slow moving cold front slides through the area. Isolated strong thunderstorms and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. - The cold front will usher in cooler, more seasonal temperatures for Sunday and extending into midweek next week.

- Risk of moderate to strong rip currents today into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Moist onshore flow has brought widely scattered light showers streaming in from the Gulf today. This activity will be mostly light rain/drizzle, but an isolated rumble of thunder or moderate shower will be possible. Coverage begins to decrease this evening with a lull in rain chances tonight. However, an approaching cold front will begin to increase shower activity Saturday morning and then then increase coverage as we head into the afternoon as the front begins to push through the area. This will be a fairly slow moving cold front, with it pushing through the Bryan-College Station area/Piney Woods region between 1-4pm, through the I-10 Corridor between 4pm-7pm, and then to the coast between 7-11pm. Lingering moisture behind the front and passing weak disturbances aloft may continue the produce isolated showers along the coast through Sunday afternoon. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible ahead of and along the cold front on Saturday, capable of producing locally heavy rainfall, strong wind gusts, and hail. SPC has placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms for Saturday. WPC maintains a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across all of SE Texas for excessive rainfall. Generally looking at up to 1" of rainfall with the FROPA, but isolated higher amounts of 2-3" cannot be ruled out where any strong thunderstorms develop. Areas the the greatest risk of experiencing minor urban and small stream flooding will be the areas that saw the 2-3" of rainfall on Thursday (Brazos Valley to the Piney Woods). The biggest impact from this rainfall will be the slowing the expansion, or improving, drought conditions across SE Texas.

Once the lingering coastal showers depart Sunday, rain chances will be minimal through at least mid-week next week. Isolated coastal showers may be possible Tuesday into Wednesday as a diffuse, weak disturbance slides over the region. Onshore flow/increasing moisture will lead to a chance of streamer showers/storms towards the end of the work week.

Warm, humid conditions will persist through Saturday afternoon with overnight lows tonight remaining in the upper 60s through low 70s. High temperatures on Saturday will be largely dependent on the timing of the FROPA. As of now, it looks like areas south of Conroe will have enough daytime heating ahead of the front to bring high temperatures into the low 80s with the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley region only getting into the mid-70s before the front moves through. Now, a slower cold front would mean warmer temperatures around the region, and a faster front would cool afternoon high temperatures by a few degrees. Between lingering cloudy skies and cooler air filtering in behind the front, Sunday will see high temperatures in the upper 60s to low 70s across the region with overnight lows in the 50s. These cooler (more seasonal) temperatures will continue through Tuesday with high temperatures in the low to mid-70s and overnight lows in the 50s. While Sunday will be be coolest day of the week, Monday night will likely be the coolest night thanks to clearing skies and light winds leading to portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods dropping into the upper 40s. A gradual warm up is expected through the remainder of the week as onshore flow returns with highs back into the upper 70s on Wednesday, then low 80s on Thursday and Friday.

Fowler

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 548 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

MVFR ceilings this morning should lift in the mid morning hours and most locations should be VFR for the remainder of the day. There will probably be some spotty shra, and maybe an isolated tstm, around...but confidence in terms of specific locations/timing is low so opted not to mention attm. May need an amendment or two should a cell pop up near a terminal. Otherwise, gradient looks a bit tighter today and am anticipating gusty SSE winds 13-26kt into the evening. MVFR, and possibly IFR stratus fills back in this evening and overnight. 47

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2026

Small craft should continue to exercise caution through Saturday morning as onshore winds around 15kt with gusts to 20-25kt continue and seas remain between 4-6ft. If the gusts become frequent enough, a Small Craft Advisory may be needed late this evening into early Saturday morning. A period of lower onshore winds are expected Saturday afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front. This front is expected to pass through the coastal waters Saturday night into Sunday morning, bringing with it an increase in showers and thunderstorms. Lingering moisture behind the front may lead to continued scattered shower activity across the coastal waters through Sunday. Moderate to strong north to northeasterly winds are expected behind the front beginning late Saturday night that persist through Sunday morning. Max sustained winds are expected to be around 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt possible. Seas are expected to build to 5-8ft by Sunday afternoon (with occasional higher seas) and remain elevated through Monday morning before slowly decreasing through the day. Light to moderate easterly flow will continue through Wednesday, then onshore flow returns through the second half of the week.

The persist, moderate at times, onshore flow has resulted in a high risk of strong rip currents that will continue through at least Saturday.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 70 78 53 68 / 30 80 40 20 Houston (IAH) 72 83 60 70 / 10 70 70 30 Galveston (GLS) 73 79 65 73 / 10 40 80 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Saturday afternoon for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.