textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Strong cold front passes through the region tonight.

- Hazardous marine conditions are expected both ahead of the front (patchy fog) and behind the front (elevated winds and seas).

- Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE Tx late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven't seen their first freeze of the season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A smattering of light showers across the region today. Wouldn't doubt if we see a few storms try and pop up later in the afternoon across the scntl parts of the CWA as some of the hires guidance trends suggest. Otherwise, the much anticipated cold front is expected to push through the area overnight and off the coast prior to sunrise Sunday. Scattered precipitation will end, as will any brief sea fog development, with the fronts passage.

Much colder and breezy conditions will prevail in the wake of the front. Daytime highs on Sunday will likely be achieved during the nighttime or early morning hours, followed by falling/steady readings in the 50s/40s for the rest of the day.

Continued cold Sunday night with freezing temperatures in the forecast for a good portion of the region (very roughly north of a High Island-Columbus line). This includes the Houston metro area where a light freeze is possible mainly outside the Beltway. Freeze Watches have been posted for the areas that haven't seen their first freeze of the season. Madison, Walker, Houston, Trinity, and Polk Counties are almost certain to see a freeze too, but they've already experienced one this season...hence no Watch.

High pressure will move to the east on Monday allowing southeast winds to resume late in the day...followed by warming trend thereafter. Temps will be back into the 60s at night and closer to 80 in the day Wed-Fri. Not out of the question that we'll see some isolated-scattered showers Wed & Thurs with a weak mid-upper trough moving across. Most 12z deterministic guidance, with the exception of GFS, suggests the next weak front makes its way into, or close to the area Friday. 47

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A somewhat tricky forecast for the overnight period. Cigs and vis are expected to continue to lower this evening and tonight to IFR-MVFR and areas of patchy to dense fog could also reduce vis for some of our sites, in particular for sites closer to the water due to the development of sea fog. In addition, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along a cold front that is progged to move through SE TX tonight. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, but N winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts of 23-30 KTS will develop in the wake of the front. Cigs will gradually lift and scatter out on Sun as drier air moves in, but winds will remain elevated through the evening, gradually relaxing during the night hours.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 106 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

Light onshore winds and low seas are expected going into the overnight hours. We may see some fog redevelopment later this evening ahead of a cold front that will be pushing into the bays between 3-6am. Fog will lift, and precipitation will taper off, with the frontal passage...but strong, gusty north and northeast winds and building seas will fill in behind the front. Gusts to near or above gale are likely...especially in the Gulf. Small Craft Advisories have been issued for all waters...and a Gale Watch for the waters beyond 20nm offshore. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. Though too early for specifics, we might need to keep an eye out for the potential for an extended sea fog event during the second half of the week...especially if we see a substantial water temp fall behind tonight's front. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 48 52 30 54 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 52 57 33 54 / 40 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 53 60 38 54 / 40 30 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ370-375.

Gale Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for GMZ370-375.