textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of nighttime & morning fog tonight-Sat night.

- Scattered showers on Saturday followed by clearing and breezy with a cold frontal passage Saturday night.

- Threat of a freeze Sunday night east of a College Station to Anahuac line.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Southeast winds are in the process of resuming across the area. As such, we'll see increasing dewpoints which will likely lead to some fog development overnight. Patches of dense fog are a possibility...esp along and west of I-45. Otherwise, warmer with increasing cloud cover on Friday with a continued influx of Gulf moisture.

Periods of fog & sea fog will remain in the fcst (mainly the nighttime & morning variety) until the next passing front eliminates those chances Saturday night into Sunday morning. Chances for some scattered pockets of -ra/shra will gradually increase as the day progresses Saturday and will be maximized along the frontal convergence Saturday night. Precip will be ending for most all inland locations Sunday morning as the front pushes offshore.

There is some pretty cold air behind this system, though with the center of the 1040-1045mb high taking a more SE track toward the Midwest and Tennessee Valley, we'll get just the western periphery of it. Even then, it appears areas east of a College Station-Kingwood- Anahuac line could get some freezing temperatures Sunday night (26-32F).

A gradual warm-up will then begin Monday night through midweek as high pressure moves off to the east and a southeast flow resumes. Guidance is still depicting the next mid-upper trof advancing toward the area late Tue & Wed bringing another shot of some rain for some locations. 47

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 541 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

TAFs largely on track for this evening but major questions lie ahead. The main uncertainty revolves around degraded flight conditions overnight, and this uncertainty revolves around all aspects - precise timing of onset, character of poor conditions (low stratus vs. fog), and intensity.

Timing is a bit quicker than guidance, as this is a typical occurrence. Intensity stays with more high confidence in MVFR this evening to IFR overnight. LIFR is likely to occur in some portions of the area, but without a lot of confidence, keep those mentions confined to TEMPOs for the time being. Finally, as to character, opting to go with a "both and" approach, with CIGs and VSBY restrictions.

Ultimately, while there's high confidence in flight conditions degrading tonight, it will be a continuous process of refinement through this evening and overnight to keep the forecast in line with the evolving reality.

MARINE

Issued at 127 PM CST Thu Dec 11 2025

Winds are in the process of returning to an onshore direction and expect these to continue through Saturday night. Increasing moisture may begin to lead to some patchy sea fog later tonight, followed by greater chances Friday night into Saturday night. Scattered showers will begin to pop up Saturday into Saturday night ahead of an approaching cold front. This front will move through the coastal waters late Saturday night or early Sunday morning, ending the sea fog threat and ushering in moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas for Sunday. Small Craft Advisories will be needed. Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday, and return to a southeast direction by Tuesday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 49 71 58 73 / 0 0 10 20 Houston (IAH) 54 73 60 75 / 0 10 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 61 69 63 71 / 0 10 10 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.