textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Gradual warming trend along with some late night and morning cloudiness this week. More notable will be the higher overnight lows and clouds/RH's. - Shower/thunderstorm chances return to the forecast. Late Wed night & Thursday, and late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning currently appear to have the move favorable chances.

- Cold front should pass through Saturday night bringing cooler conditions for Easter, though there is some uncertainty as to if/when precip tapers off.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Overall, no substantial changes to the ongoing fcst or reasoning...just minor timing tweaks based on latest guidance.

A continued onshore flow will bring a gradual return of higher PW's, RH's, and temps into midweek. Though we could see some very spotty showers around as early as Tuesday, chances for scattered activity are better as we head into Wednesday - and moreso late Wed night and Thursday time period. This is when some mid level troffiness tracks across the cntl CONUS and when some potential convection initiates along the dryline and front well to our northwest. The tail end of some of this convection, should it hold together, could make it into SE TX late Wed night and Thursday and bring some welcome wetting rainfall (better chances I-10 northward).

Rain chances diminish a bit Thurs night into Sat morning (more isolated in nature). But a deeper/stronger trough should push across the Plains Friday afternoon through Saturday night. PW's around 1.9" should pool south of its associated front and guidance is is pretty good agreement showing a band of shra/tstms along the front as it pushes into the SE Tx late in the day Saturday and eventually off the coast late Sat night or Sunday morning.

Though cooler temps are a decent bet for Easter, there are some forecast uncertainties to keep in mind this far out. Of course, one is the timing of the onset of the precip and frontal passage itself which guidance will probably waffle about from run-to-run and day-to- day. Another concern is the shallowness of the the front. Lingering post frontal moisture above the surface and a very messy quasi-zonal flow aloft and embedded disturbances *may* allow for the continuation of some light rains Sunday. Safest bet for now is advertise some 40-50% POPs, and adjust up and down as the finer details are eventually narrowed down. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 642 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

KCXO/KSGR at LIFR due to CIGs/VSBYs. KCLL at MVFR due to CIGs. All other sites at VFR at this time. Expect conditions to improve mid-late morning. Winds generally light out of the south. Gusts to around 25 kts will be possible during the afternoon hours. Light southerly winds continue overnight with a return of MVFR/LIFR CIGs

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Mon Mar 30 2026

Long fetch 10-20kt SE winds will set up across the Gulf bringing gradually building seas as we head into the early and midweek time period. Winds will generally be highest in the afternoon and evening in the bays, and during the overnight hours offshore. Wouln't be overly surprised to see some caution flags at times in the offshore Gulf during the second half of the work week. With increased moisture levels returning, we'll see some shower and storm chances return to the forecast as the week progresses. The next front, and associated storms, are forecast to move into the waters Saturday night or Sunday morning. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 87 65 87 68 / 0 0 10 0 Houston (IAH) 85 66 85 69 / 0 0 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 77 70 78 70 / 0 10 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.