textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier with breezy northwesterly winds today.

- Near record-heat incoming...a warming trend is expected this week with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Breezy conditions will gradually weaken this afternoon as the pressure gradient weakens with the front continuing off to the east. A mid to upper level ridge will build and persist through the majority of the work week. This will keep dry and warm conditions over SE Texas with highs set to approach record- breaking levels. Ensembles continue to suggest 850mb temperatures reaching the max percentile near the middle of the week which will correlate to increasing potential for near-record breaking temperatures at the surface. Forecast highs through the week are in the mid to upper 80s.

A pattern change may be on the horizon for next weekend; however, confidence is low as probabilities since this time yesterday have decreased to around 10-15% chance of precipitation. Will continue to monitor over the coming days as to whether or not that downward trend in probabilities will continue and warm dry weather will prevail.

Bailey

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 536 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Gusts starting to drop from north winds, which will also diminish through the evening. General veering to northeasterly overnight, but light enough to be fairly variable as they do so. By afternoon, should have onshore flow back and increasing above 5 kts.

Of less confidence will be flight conditions tonight. MVFR cloud deck has edged off to the east, but some concern it could build back overnight, as well as potential for fog. Have eased up on CIGs modestly, while leaving fog TEMPOs. Have even gotten a bit more aggressive in those TEMPOS with foggy spots CXO/SGR/LBX. Regardless, the details may need refinement/amendment to match actual trends overnight. Should return to VFR a few hours after sunrise.

MARINE

Issued at 1218 PM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the bays and Gulf Waters through 6 PM this evening. Northwesterly winds continue at 15-10 kts gusting to around 30 kts. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will resume on Monday and prevail through most of the week. High pressure will move into the region resulting in persistent dry weather.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 47 73 53 77 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 54 73 55 77 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 57 65 59 70 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.