textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Expect increasingly warm and humid conditions as the week progresses.

- Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms persist into next week.

- Strong rip currents possible along Gulf-facing beaches this week.

- Monitoring the potential for strong to severe storms early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

In the last three-ish weeks of March, we were begging for rain chances (any %) as the drought monitor kept turning more and more red. We went from "Houston...we have a problem" to "Houston...we have a solution...well kind of". These daily chances of rain won't be a drought buster by any means, but it certainly beats the alternative of only seeing rainfall in our imaginations. With onshore flow established, plentiful low-level moisture is in place which is why some of you may have seen light rain early this morning before sunrise. Best chances for an isolated shower this afternoon will be south of I-10 and west of I-45. The general pattern will be the same going into next week where we have high temperatures mainly in the 80s, low temperatures generally in the 60s (approaching the 70s towards the end of the week), and daily chances for showers/storms. The mechanisms for these showers and storms changes nearly each day, but the general message remains all the same!

Thursday's rain chances are the result of a weak coastal trough. Moisture availability will be best to the west of I-45 though, so that's where the highest rain chances will be. Latest CAMs guidance suggest isolated showers could begin as early as near sunrise, which I have no reason not to buy into it based on this morning's activity. With daytime heating, a few storms are likely to develop west of I-45. Friday presents an interesting scenario since there will be an embedded shortwave trough pushing through. While this occurs though, ridging aloft will also be building in with 500mb heights increasing throughout the day. This sets up the ultimate showdown: subsidence vs embedded shortwave with a tag team partner of daytime heating. With PW's approaching the 90th percentile (~1.52"), we'll still have at least some rainfall...but I do think the subsidence could limit the extent and duration of these showers/storms. For now, I'm keeping rain chances as is on Friday, but just know that there are some model solutions out there where most locations don't see much more than 0.10".

The ridge axis begins to slide to east on Saturday, so rain chances will be higher to the west that day. The ridge sliding out is the result of an approaching upper level low from the Pacific Northwest...this looks to play a role in our forecast early next week. For now though, I'll just briefly mention that on Sunday, rain chances will be higher over the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods due to the positioning of a passing jet streak and LLJ.

The previously mentioned upper level low will push into the Central Plains in the Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. As it does, a dry line will be set up to our northwest over in western Texas. Surface low pressure develops late Monday on the leeside of the Rockies which places us firmly in the warm sector with plentiful moisture and instability. It's too early to look too much into the exact details, but factoring all of that in along with a rather robust mid-level jet setting up to our northwest...the ingredients are all certainly there for strong to severe storms. SPC already has portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a 15% probability for severe weather on Tuesday and I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue into Wednesday at some point. The potential for strong to severe storms is certainly greater to our northwest, but the potential will certainly need to be monitored in our area as well. Be sure to stay up to date on the forecast for the latest details.

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 544 AM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

VFR today with gradually increasing SE winds later today. Low level moisture increases overnight and we could see some intermittent MVFR ceilings develop toward morning. Patchy fog can't be ruled out west of I-45 late tonight as well...but guidance suggests low vsbys should be situated west of our TAF sites. 47

MARINE

Issued at 140 PM CDT Wed Apr 8 2026

Light east-southeasterly winds today will transition to southeasterly tonight and begin to strengthen going into Thursday. This increased onshore flow will likely lead to a period of caution flags late Thursday into Friday. Another result of the increased onshore flow is the increased risk of strong rip currents along Gulf- facing beaches towards the end of the work week and going into the weekend. Expect wave heights to increase as well due to an extended fetch of easterly to east-southeasterly winds stretching to the eastern Gulf brings a swell of elevated seas. Seas expected to peak in the 4-7 ft range in the Gulf waters through the weekend. Winds further increase over the weekend and into early next week. Small Craft Advisories cannot be ruled out. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but these chances peak late Thursday into Friday as an upper level disturbance pushes through the area. Elevated winds and seas could occur in and around thunderstorms.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 58 83 64 81 / 0 20 10 40 Houston (IAH) 63 82 68 80 / 0 20 10 50 Galveston (GLS) 70 77 71 77 / 10 10 30 60

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.