textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Another day with warm and conditions and an isolated shower or two before cooler weather arrives.

- Cold front pushes through the region on late tonight and Friday morning, bringing gusty north winds and much cooler conditions through weekend.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front. A Gale Watch is in effect.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Expect another warm afternoon today with highs in the upper 80s/90s. A few isolated showers could develop, mostly near the coast, but otherwise uneventful compared to whats coming tomorrow.

A cold front is expected to push into SE Texas early Friday morning, bringing a significant cool down heading into the weekend. The front should push through College Station some time around 4-7am, moving off the coast between 10am-1pm. This won't be a completely dry frontal passage, as models do show some isolated convection along the front with more scatted development near the coast due to a low level convergence zone created by a prefrontal trough. As mentioned before, weak dynamics and the quick speed of this front take severe/hydro concerns off the table with these storms. Still, this is poised to be a fairly strong cold front, with high pressure behind the front reaching 1040-1050mb over the Plains. 925mb winds behind the front range from 25-45 knots, the apex of which generally falling west of the I-45 corridor. Water temperatures are in the 80s right now, around a 15-20 degree difference between the forecasted air temperature, which should bring especially strong winds across the barrier islands and Gulf waters.

Northerly winds of 15-25 mph (30mph along the islands) with higher gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible behind the cold front on Friday. Therefore, a wind advisory will be in effect throughout Friday, mostly for areas west of I-45/along the coast. The Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning, and will now take effect earlier to account for a stronger, faster FROPA. Wind advisory will remain in effect overnight for the barrier islands, matching the Gale Warning.

Cooler, drier air should fill in behind the front with morning lows for Saturday in the mid 40s/mid 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s right along the coast. Daytime highs will also be cooler, generally in the upper 60s/lower 70s. The coldest temperatures are forecasted for Sunday morning, in the lower 40s/lower 50s inland and upper 50s/lower 60s along the immediate coast. Temperatures will gradually warm into next week as ridging builds aloft with a coastal trough setting up over the waters.

03

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

SE Winds and VFR conditions expected this afternoon with light showers possible near the coast. Winds become light and VRB this evening. A cold front will push into SE Texas early Friday morning. Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms will be possible along and ahead of the front, in addition to brief CIGS/VIS reduction to MVFR FLs as the front passes. Gusty northerly winds develop behind the front, reaching 15-25 knots with gusts to 25-35 knots possible.

JMG/03

MARINE

Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue into tonight with rain chances increasing ahead of an approaching cold front. This cold front is expected to push off the coast early Friday morning, bringing dangerous marine conditions. Northerly winds of 20- 30 knots are expected during the day, rising to near Gale-Force overnight, with gusts of 40 knots and seas of 7-13 feet. A Gale Warning is in effect beginning at 10am Friday. There is still a chance that gales could begin earlier for Matagorda Bay and the waters west of Freeport, thus additional timing adjustments to the warning cannot be ruled out. Winds and seas begin to decrease Saturday afternoon, though Small Craft Advisories may be needed through early Sunday morning.

03

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 214 PM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

Northerly winds of 15-30 mph with higher gusts of 30-40 mph will be possible behind the cold front on Friday. Afternoon humidity will drop to 30-40%, short of reaching Red Flag Warning levels. Still, these strong winds and modestly dry conditions will result in elevated fire wx conditions for Friday afternoon. Texas A&M Forest Service has high to locally extreme fire danger for portions of SE Texas on Friday. Caution is strongly advised when burning outdoors.

03

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1258 AM CDT Thu Oct 15 2026

North winds 15-30 mph with higher gusts are probable Friday into Saturday in the wake of the passing cold front. Though breezy to windy conditions are likely, RH values appear to be above Red Flag Warning criteria. That said, caution is strongly advised with outdoor burning. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 64 67 47 67 / 40 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 70 75 51 70 / 20 20 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 78 58 72 / 50 40 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 1 AM CDT Saturday for TXZ176- 195>198-210>212-214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338.

Wind Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Gale Warning from 10 AM Friday to 1 PM CDT Saturday for GMZ330- 335-350-355-370-375.