textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot conditions will continue through the forecast period. Daytime highs will be in the 90s with heat indices in the triple digits.

- Isolated-scattered thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and evening. Stronger cells will be capable of producing some 25-45 mph wind gusts.

- A deeper surge of Gulf moisture should arrive late in the week and weekend. Warm, muggy conditions persist with daily chances of rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are popping up early this afternoon, mainly over the coastal counties. This activity is driven primarily by daytime heating and mesoscale seabreeze boundaries. Further north, weak mid-level troughiness sitting over the ArkLaTex region will also contribute to some forcing this afternoon. Combined with PW values in the 1.6 to 1.9 inch range, scattered activity cannot be ruled out, primarily north of I-10, through this evening. With DCAPE values roughly between 1,000-1,220 J/kg, dry air aloft could easily accelerate downdrafts, resulting in localized strong wind gusts with the strongest storms. Locally heavy downpours and frequent lightning will also be a risk. Expect activity to taper off between 7-9pm with the loss of daytime heating.

From Wednesday through the end of the workweek, a drying trend is expected as a mid-level ridge over the Rockies gradually strengthens, suppressing overall moisture availability. However, persistent southerly surface flow will continue to transport Gulf moisture inland. Paired with daytime heating and seabreeze interactions, expect the typical pattern of isolated morning showers along the coast, transitioning into isolated storms further inland by afternoon. Model guidance points to Friday as having the best overall rain chances during this mid-week stretch.

Heading into Saturday and the rest of the forecast period, southeast Texas will be positioned in a relative weakness between two ridges. Despite a bit of broad mid-level subsidence, a surge of moisture will filter into the region, leading to rain and storm chances (30 to 60 %) over the weekend. Mid to upper level pattern will keep the region under the influence of persistent troughiness, ahead of an approaching backdoor cool front moving south from the northeast. Therefore, daily chances of showers and storms will continue through the upcoming week.

Temperature-wise, conditions will remain seasonably hot and typical for July standards. Highs mainly in the mid 90s, with peak heat indices ranging from 100-107F.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Similar to the last few mornings, we are starting to see some MVFR cigs/vis develop. This shouldn't last too long with VFR prevailing by 13-14Z. Southerly winds will increase to around 8-10 knots this afternoon then become light and variable during the evening hours. Have introduced a PROB30 for TSRA across all sites by mid day through early this evening as isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop. Activity should wane by 00Z. Patchy fog will be likely once again Wednesday morning as winds become light.

MARINE

Issued at 209 PM CDT Tue Jul 7 2026

Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas (generally 1-3 ft) will prevail through most of the period as surface high remains strong across the eastern Gulf. A daily risk of isolated to scattered showers and storms is anticipated, with the best chances Friday - Saturday and the upcoming week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 96 77 96 / 30 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 79 97 79 96 / 30 20 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 90 / 10 20 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.