textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry, warm and more humid today.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small hail are the main hazards.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable humidity levels from Sunday into the upcoming week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Tonight's weather continues to evolve around the nearly stationary surface boundary extending over Southeast Texas. Surface convergence, light winds and lingering moisture are once again leading to areas of fog. Hi-res models suggest a widespread dewpoint depression dropping into the 0 to 2 degF range. A Dense Fog Advisory is in effect and will likely expand further inland; fog will persist through 8 - 10 AM.

Another dry and warm day is expected today as the upper-level ridge axis moves overhead. Persistent southerly surface flow will continue to bring an uptick in Gulf moisture throughout the day. Therefore, expect partly to mostly cloudy skies and slightly humid conditions. Highs will generally be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

We continue to monitor the next upper-level trough that is expected to move across TX on Saturday. Multiple vorticity maxima aloft will be ejecting ahead of the main trough late Friday into early Saturday, leading to scattered activity beginning to develop across the region. This is a positive tilted wave, so it could potentially be progressive with a low-end severe threat. We cannot ignore the environment "cooking" ahead of the associated cold front. Increasing WAA along with the persistent southerly surface flow, will bring an uptick in moisture with dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. As the day progresses, showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage and intensity due to peak daytime heating and increasing LLJ.

Latest guidance suggest that the surface cold front will still be west of our CWA by late Saturday afternoon. If that happens, there will be decent destabilization of airmass ahead of this boundary with moderate 0-6km shear and increasing instability (though still at a low to moderate level). Therefore, a progressive line of convection, likely with some strong updrafts may form. This line could bring a risk of damaging winds and small hail through the region from late Saturday afternoon into late Saturday night. Agree with SPC regarding the Marginal Risk of severe weather in their Day 2 outlook.

The main caveat to the severe weather threat is whether instability remains low as the front moves into our area, potentially due to cloud coverage from pre frontal showers and storms. This cloud cover could play a major role in stabilization prior to the main line of thunderstorms along the front. Regardless, there should be some strong to severe weather mainly along the line. The associated cold front should move off the coast by late Saturday night/early Sunday, ending any rain.

Drier air with breezy northerly winds is expected on Sunday. While temperatures will stay about the same, the air will feel a lot less humid as dewpoints drop into the 40s and 50s through at least Tuesday. Dry weather is expected to continue through the end of the long term period.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 521 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Anticipate rapidly deteriorating condition near the coast this evening as sea fog rolls in, bringing IFR-VLIFR visibility & CIGS. Low CIGS/VIS should slowly fill inland as the night progresses with IFR-LIFR FLs likely as far north of KCXO. LIFR conditions may briefly develop at KCLL and KUTS during the early morning hours of Friday, though it may be much shorter lived with MVFR-IFR FLs more prevalent in these areas. Conditions will begin the improve late Friday morning with VFR conditions returning by the afternoon. Some sea fog may loom off the coast from Galveston during the daytime. Expect another round of ceilings and fog Friday night.

03

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Areas of dense fog are expected overnight and will persist into at least mid Friday morning. A weak frontal boundary remains nearly stationary further inland, serving as the focus for fog development. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all Gulf waters and the bays through 10AM Friday.

Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next weather system that will be bringing a cold front Saturday night. Expect increasing rain and storm chances Friday night into late Saturday night. Some strong to marginally severe storms will be possible with heavy rain, damaging winds and small hail as the main hazards. A Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued through the weekend. Moderate to occasional offshore winds can be expected in the wake of the front on Sunday. Drier conditions and light onshore winds return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 63 74 56 69 / 20 100 70 0 Houston (IAH) 63 75 59 71 / 10 90 90 0 Galveston (GLS) 61 71 59 69 / 20 70 100 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ200-213- 214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.