textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Northeast to winds will temperatures cooler through the holiday than earlier in the week. Expect a Thanksgiving with fair weather and temperatures near average.

- Onshore winds return Friday, along with warmer and more humid air to prepare the area for our next shot of rain and storms associated with our next front coming over the weekend. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- An even chillier airmass comes in following the weekend front, opening December on a cold note. For those north of the Houston metro, we may see the return of nights with temperatures reaching lows around or just below freezing.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 123 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

The forecast for the next week or so largely breaks into three chunks - the nice part, the stormy part, and the chilly part. The holiday, thankfully for travelers, falls squarely into the the nice portion of the forecast. High pressure is making its way gradually from the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley, and the main reflection of that in our weather is winds turning from northeasterly to easterly (and eventually southeasterly...which will begin our transition to the next section). We're far enough away from the center of the high that we've managed some scattered to broken cloud cover over the area, but we're still close enough that is the extent of it, and conditions are quite fair.

Temperatures are cooler than we've seen for much of the fall, but with a good bit of sun and located west of the main cold pool, we're still right around average. Yesterday ended up a bit warmer than I anticipated - more right around 70 for much of the area than the middle to upper 60s, so I'm keeping with the warmer of NBM or persistence for both today and tomorrow across virtually the entire area. The one exception is tomorrow's highs way up north (B/CS, Madisonville, Crockett, etc) as it looks like we should get enough cloudiness to nudge highs back into the 60s. But...if the clouds end up hanging out more to the north, they would find themselves right back up around 70 again.

So, we started to hint at the transition to the next phase with winds becoming southeasterly, particularly through the day Friday. This is going to be some fairly stout onshore winds, which should help build precipitable water values in the 1.25 to 1.5 inch range and bump dewpoints from around 30 degrees today into the 60s to around 70 down by Matagorda Bay. These values are not necessarily eye-popping compared to what we can get, and aren't even all that extreme for the time of year (below the 90th percentile), but it's still going to give us the moisture and instability to allow for numerous showers and storms to crop up ahead of and along our expected weekend cold front. The first rain chances creep into the forecast as early as Friday night when a lead shortwave trough passes through, but I'd be focused more on Saturday afternoon through Saturday night. This will help us catch peak heating (afternoon only, of course) and get a boost of mechanical lift from the frontal surface. This is likely going to be important as the upper trough supporting this trough does not dig very far south, and so upper atmosphere dynamic support is going to be fairly weak.

As a result of the somewhat mixed situation here, I'm not terribly concerned about an organized severe storm or flooding event. But, just because it's not perfect doesn't mean it's trash, either. And we'll certainly have enough shear, instability, and moisture pooling ahead of the front that we have some potential for them to line up in a way to push the strongest storms over the edge. SPC and WPC's Day 3 outlooks paint our area in a 5-15 percent neighborhood probability for a severe storm or excessive rain, which seems pretty reasonable. Not a high chance, but not a zero chance, either.

Finally, we move on to the chilly part of the forecast. Without a prolonged stretch of onshore flow and heating time, we won't have the opportunity to get up to the near record high temps we've been seeing much of the season. This sets us up to finally see a stretch of weather that is decidedly below normal beginning on Sunday. Look for highs in the lower 60s at the coast, in the 50s inland, and those up in parts of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods may struggle to even reach 50 degrees - and those are the forecast highs! As the lingering bit or warmer temps indicate, the front does appear as if it will get a bit hung up over the coastal waters on Sunday, and some lingering rain chances will hang with us through Monday until a reinforcing front sweeps through Monday night to really scour that moisture out and allow for things to dry out into Tuesday and early Wednesday. The dip in rain potential and cloud cover should allow for afternoon highs to begin to rebound Tuesday slightly (though still chilly) but at the same time will allow for overnight lows to really fall with a more ideal radiational cooling environment. There's still a fairly wide spread in just how cold the models suggest we can get, but it seems fairly high confidence to say at least a portion of the area to see lows fall to around or below freezing Monday and Tuesday night. Those north of the Houston metro are going to be most likely to see temps that cold, and the places where freezing temps tend to happen next is in the rural area well to the west of the metro, so they should be watching the forecast closely as well. But really, the chances for a light freeze are above zero across the area, so it's worth checking back periodically for the latest expectations.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

VFR with light northeast winds today, veering to the east Friday. 47

MARINE

Issued at 123 PM CST Thu Nov 27 2025

Winds today are in the process of veering through easterly to southeasterly, and will be increasing in speed. The strengthening winds will also result in building seas. Small craft should exercise caution on the Gulf today and all coastal waters overnight. A small craft advisory begins on the Gulf tomorrow morning and expands to include the bays Friday afternoon, and continues through Saturday in advance of an incoming cold front. Periods of unsettled weather also return to the forecast late Friday night, peaking Saturday night just before the front pushes off the coast. Gusty north winds are anticipated in the wake of the front, and another small craft advisory will likely be needed for that period as well.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 43 67 56 73 / 0 10 50 70 Houston (IAH) 45 69 58 75 / 0 0 40 60 Galveston (GLS) 59 71 64 76 / 0 0 30 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from midnight CST tonight through Friday morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for GMZ350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Friday to 6 PM CST Saturday for GMZ350-355-370-375.