textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather conditions are expected through the weekend across southeast Texas with more locations with temperatures reaching the 90-degree mark.

- A wetter weather pattern returns by the middle of next week with some weekly rainfall totals at or over 1 inch becoming more likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry and benign weather conditions are ongoing due to ridging aloft and lighter winds as a result. In 24 hours this will change as the ridge axis shifts further east and onshore southerly surface winds return in earnest for a longer period of time (through most of next week). Longwave troughing will also arrive over the weekend to persist and eject across the Intermountain West, eventually orienting southwesterly flow across Texas. Multiple rounds of vorticity maxima embedded within this flow will serve as the catalyst for multiple rounds of convection, beginning on Monday and in earnest by next Tuesday. Long-range guidance currently suggests a more diurnally-influenced, sub-severe convective cycle with some lingering evening showers and thunderstorms. That said, slightly above normal temperatures are expected until then (some temperature maximums in the upper 80s/lower 90s) and near-normal temperatures (temperature maximums in the upper 80s) as the wet weather pattern returns by the middle of next week.

Cassel

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Mostly VFR conditions overnight with southerly winds 5-10kt. Can't completely rule out some very intermittent, patchy late night fog for non-metro terminals where the wind briefly lays down <5kt, but that should be the exception versus the rule. Pressure gradient tightens Friday and expect southerly winds to increase to ~15kt as the morning progresses along with some gusts above 20kt in the late morning and afternoon hours. There are some weak mid- upper disturbances forecast to push overhead Friday afternoon & night bringing some higher broken cloud cover (15-25kft). Though a few radar returns might emerge, low level moisture hasn't recovered enough for the vast majority of anything falling to reach the ground (it'll probably evaporate first)...hence no mention in the TAFs yet. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As large-scale surface ridging begins to persist and build eastward over the next few days, a longer onshore fetch is also developing for the Upper Texas coastline. Forecast certainty continues to increase (up to 50-75% chance) for the threat of impactful wave heights along the Bolivar Peninsula by Sunday, with concurrent rip current threats being of concern well into the beginning of next week. Lower end Small Craft Advisories are becoming more likely as a result into early next week as onshore winds gain speed to moderate levels, building 4-6 ft. seas.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 71 89 75 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 91 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 85 79 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.