textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- High pressure will intensify through the weekend, reducing chances of rain to near zero this weekend well into next week.

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s) will persist through most of the rest of the month across Southeast Texas. The potential for Heat Advisory issuance remains elevated as a result.

- Without adequate precautions outdoors, cumulative impacts of heat and heat stress will remain a significant risk factor to health (especially for heat-sensitive populations).

DISCUSSION

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As of 2 PM CDT, water vapor still shows an upper-level area of low pressure currently centered over northwestern Mexico with an attendant batch of moisture moving across the upper Texas coastline. While this does keep the window open for some ongoing convection to continue through the afternoon, ridging also continues to hold that window only slightly ajar. High resolution guidance still keeps PWAT values over 2 inches for a more ample atmospheric environment for convection to tap into, with more efficient rainfall rates certainly not out of the question through Friday afternoon into the evening. That said, the next 18 to 24 hours also remain as the best window of opportunity for any rainfall through the next seven days. The spatiotemporal distribution of ridging will drive the majority of forecast outcomes starting from Saturday onward and the first evolution of the ridge in question is westward intensification across the southern Great Plains. Medium-range guidance suggests geopotential heights of this ridge being the highest by Sunday into early next week (just below 600 dekameters), with a correlating 25% to 50% potential of inland temperatures at 100 degrees F and winds below 10 mph. This synoptic setup will also sustain impactful heat well into next week, with multiple periods of widespread heat indices in the 105F-108F+ range and dew point values not mixing out as effectively. The potential of Heat Advisory issuance is likely to increase as a result of reduced heat relief and higher WBGT values in calmer winds. Long-range guidance suggests ridging taking on a more elongated, zonal shape across the southern US before gradually breaking down in strength by the end of the week.

With multiple days of above average heat (average near 96) expected, cumulative heat stress remains a risk to health outdoors and precautions can be taken to reduce the risk of heat illness. These precautions include and are not limited to: reducing or changing time spent outdoors to cooler times of day, increasing time and access to air-conditioned spaces, checking on heat- sensitive populations, and checking the car seats of vehicles before departure for the day.

Cassel

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

As the increased moisture from the Gulf makes its way onshore a few isol shower/storms dot the s'rn portion of the area and continue to move northward. Gusty conditions up to 20kts will persist through the afternoon and into the evening. Winds will begin to chill out overnight to around 3-5kts. During this time the area west of I-45 will see the increasing chance for BR into the sunrise hours. Tomorrow will follow the same pattern as today, only difference is a decrease in rain chances.

CMW

MARINE

Issued at 135 PM CDT Fri Aug 14 2026

High pressure will begin to build further inland through the weekend, allowing winds to slacken and seas to calm further to 2 to 3 feet well into next week. Dry weather will continue for most of the future forecast period with limited seabreeze storm activity if any are able to develop.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 99 74 99 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 80 98 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 82 90 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.