textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and humid today.

- Cold front brings showers/thunderstorms on Tuesday. A few locally heavier thunderstorms possible.

- Autumn-like air behind the front.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

A mid-upper level ridge overhead will continue to dominate the local weather pattern, providing enough subsidence for mostly dry conditions and partly cloudy skies. In addition, an mid-upper level trough will be making its way across the Southern Plains today. An associated cold front is expected to move over the northern and into the central portions of Texas later today and tonight. In response, the pressure gradient will tighten over Southeast Texas, leading to south-southeast winds at 8-12 mph with a few higher gusts on occasion this afternoon. Temperatures will also be on the warmer side, with many locations in the mid 80s, in particular for those west of I-45 and south of I-10. We could start to see some showers developing late tonight as the front makes its way towards the Brazos Valley.

The cold front is expected to reach the Brazos Valley sometime between 6-9AM, the Houston Metro region between 10AM-1PM, and the coastal locations between 2PM-5PM. There is still some minor differences in the timing of the front in several of the models; Thus, the timing mentioned above is an estimated time leaning heaviest on the latest NBM guidance. The front could still be a couple of hours faster or slower. With respect to rain chances, we can expect showers and thunderstorms increasing ahead and along the cold front. Look for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region early Tuesday morning, expanding southward into the Houston Metro area during the mid to late morning hours. The coasts should see start to see better rain chances during the early afternoon hours.

Looking into how instability isn't as impressive ahead of the front, it seems that most of the activity should be rain, with a few strong thunderstorms occurring at times. That being said, SPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Weather for our eastern counties, along a line that extends from Houston County southward to Liberty County. The main severe weather hazards are damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. PWs rise to 1.8-2.1 inches ahead of the front. Therefore, heavy rainfall is also possible at times and could lead to ponding of water along roadways and low-lying areas. WPC continues a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall mainly for areas east and north of Harris County. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather updates and alerts and check the road conditions before starting your commute.

Rain is expected to ebb shortly after the passage of the cold front, with many locations being rain-free during the mid afternoon hours over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods, the evening hours for areas along I-10, and later on Tuesday night for the coastal areas. Winds will also become northwest to north in the wake of the front and remains in that general direction through Wednesday evening. Drier and cooler conditions are also expected after the FROPA, although our highs only lower by about 10 degrees or so on Wednesday. Expect highs in the lower to upper 70s, coolest over the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods. The inland overnight lows will generally be in the 50s Tuesday night and the upper 40s to upper 50s Wednesday night.

The forecast for Thursday and Friday will be a little bit tricky, due to some uncertainties in the models. Some models hint at a surface coastal trough possibly developing Thursday morning over the Texas Coasts followed by a weak re-inforcing cold front. There's also the potential for the passage of weak mid-level vort maxes embedded in the southern periphery of a mid-level trough moving over the Southern Plains. These features could bring in isolated to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over us, but will depend on how quick moisture can recover along the surface. The GFS shows PWs between 1.3-1.7 inches by Thursday morning but ECMWF is much drier with PWs of 0.8-1.1 inches for the same timeframe. If GFS is correct, then there is a good chance for those scattered showers. Otherwise, we could see activity to be mainly isolated for much of the inland areas. It seems we could have even cooler conditions in the wake this second front for the upcoming weekend.

And I'm sure everyone will enjoy the fall vibes!

Cotto

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Ceilings have started to improve to VFR early this afternoon and will persist through early evening. A similar forecast is expected tonight, with low clouds and patchy fog developing mainly after 03Z Tue. MVFR to occasional LIFR cigs are anticipated, becoming more widespread after 06Z Tues. A cold front is progged to move through the terminals during the day, bringing showers and thunderstorms along the boundary. Latest guidance brings the front to near 11-12Z at KCLL/KUTS, and to KIAH/KHOU by late morning/early afternoon. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions are expected with the heaviest showers/storms. FROPA is forecast at KIAH by early Tuesday afternoon, with NW winds established by late afternoon/early evening. Light SE winds will continue this afternoon and evening, gradually transitioning to the SW then NW as the boundary moves through.

JM

MARINE

Issued at 1242 PM CST Mon Nov 2 2026

Light to occasionally moderate southeast winds are expected today, veering south on Tuesday. A cold front will move across Southeast Texas on Tuesday, bringing showers and thunderstorms over the bays and Gulf waters during the late morning to late night hours. Moderate to occasionally strong north to northwest winds are expected to develop in the wake of the front and seas will build to 3-5 feet. Caution flags will be needed Tuesday night into Wednesday. Winds relax and seas subside Wednesday afternoon/evening. Rain chances could return late Thursday into Friday as a coastal trough develops over the Texas Coasts followed by a reinforcing cold front. Winds will be onshore on Thursday, then back to offshore on Friday in the wake of the FROPA.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 86 68 75 51 / 0 30 90 0 Houston (IAH) 84 72 81 57 / 0 10 90 20 Galveston (GLS) 80 75 81 64 / 0 10 60 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.