textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A brief increase in Gulf moisture could boost rain chances on Friday.

- Dry weather pattern is expected to develop this weekend into next week.

- Slightly above average summertime heat (upper 90s/lower 100s) will persist through the next several days. Cumulative impacts of heat (and heat stress) will remain a significant risk factor, especially for heat-sensitive populations.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Partly cloudy skies expected overnight along with low temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s areawide. Winds will continue to relax to around 5 mph or less by late tonight.

A surge of moisture from the western Gulf waters along with a few vort maxes will make its way into Southeast Texas on Friday. PWs are expected to rise to 1.9-2.2 starting in the morning for the areas south of I-10 and expanding northward to the rest of the CWA during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Although these PWs should generally be able to bring some decent rainfall, the broad mid-upper level high pressure over SE CONUS will remain fairly strong with the western edge of it expanding even further west into western TX during the day Friday. I have continued to carry PoPs of 20-30%, in particular during the afternoon where instability and diurnal heating is at its highest and may be assisted by the seabreeze boundary. If any strong storms do develop, brief periods of heavy rainfall is possible. The highs will be a degree or two less than yesterday, but still range in the mid to upper 90s for much of the inland areas while the coasts remain in the lower 90s.

Dry conditions will resume this weekend and continue into the upcoming work week. The highs will be in the upper 90s inland and the lower to mid 90s along the coast, with some locations possibly hitting the 100 deg F mark next week. Heat indices will peak between 105-110 deg F for many locations. Do not underestimate the effects of heat stress when working or spending time outdoors for extended periods. Make sure to keep protecting yourself, your loved ones, and pets safe from the heat :). As stated in the previous forecast discussion, reduce or change the time spent outdoors to cooler times of day, increase the time and access to air-conditioned spaces, and always check the car seats before departing your vehicle.

Cotto

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 628 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Breezy southerly winds will continue through sunset with gusts to around 17-23kt, then diminish to around 5-8kt overnight tonight. These breezy winds will return after sunrise and continue through the evening hours on Friday.

VFR conditions will generally prevail across the area through tomorrow, but there may be a period of MVFR conditions at CLL late tonight into early Friday morning with CIGs around 1500ft. These conditions are also possible at UTS and CXO, but chances are low enough to not include in the TAF.

A surge in moisture will allow for isolate to widely scattered showers to develop along the coast in the morning, then work their way northwards through the afternoon. Coverage will be limited enough so that mention in the TAFs are PROB30s for now. Will also need to monitor the potential for isolated thunderstorms as well, but again coverage is expected to be very limited. Will continue to monitor for future updates.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1046 PM CDT Thu Aug 13 2026

Caution flags will remain in effect for the bays and Gulf waters through late tonight due to moderate onshore winds and seas of up to 5 feet. Winds will gradually decrease Friday and will continue mostly light through the upcoming work week as high pressure builds. Seas will decrease to 2-3 feet by early Saturday. A surge in moisture is expected on Friday and could lead to isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms throughout the day. By Saturday, we will transition to a dry weather pattern as drier air moves in and the high pressure builds.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 97 77 98 / 0 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 95 80 97 / 0 30 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 90 84 90 / 10 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 4 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.