textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate heat risk will continue today and persist each day through Thursday. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C).

- Moderate to major heat will be possible Friday and into the Fourth of July weekend. Peak heat index values between 105-110F (40-43C).

- High rip current risk will continue along area beaches until this morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Current conditions are generally quiet across the area. Nighttime Microphysics Imagery shows a little bit of haze across southeast Texas this morning. Only minor visibility reductions down to 8 miles have been noted across the observation sites in our forecast area. SAL may linger into the morning hours and lead to some visibility reductions, but overall, concentration amounts look to be less than what had been seen the past couple of days.

The upper level ridge that has brought hot and dry weather to the region will begin to shift northeast today. This will allow for a few weak impulsed to round the southern periphery of the ridge into our region. This will be accompanied by an increase in moisture moving in from the Gulf. Latest guidance has been to shift the plume of higher moisture into southeast Texas with both the latest GFS and ECMWF showing PWATs surpassing 2.00 inches Thursday afternoon. For now, shower coverage is expected to remain isolated through Wednesday night. As the moisture plume moves into our region on Thursday shower coverage looks to increase to scattered (25-40%) along and south of I-10. If guidance continues to trend towards richer moisture further west, rain chances may need to be increased for the southern half of the forecast area for Thursday over the next couple of days.

Heat continues to be the main concern with this forecast package. Little change in temperature is expected through Thursday night with highs in the mid 90s and lows ranging from mid to upper 70s. The heat risk looks to remain moderate through Thursday with peak heat indices generally expected to remain below advisory criteria between 102-107 during the afternoon hours. Concerns for major heat risk increase Friday and through the weekend. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s with lows generally in the upper 70s. Heat indices look to range between 105-110, which would near or above Heat Advisory criteria for much of the Houston area. The potential for hazardous heat will be closely monitored with it being the Fourth of July on Saturday.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Brief periods of MVFR remain possible through mid/late morning (13-15Z) as very patchy low level stratus and residual haze from Saharan dust fill the air. Thereafter, VFR is expected to prevail through much of the daytime and into the evening. Still expecting a few isolated showers and storms this afternoon as the sea-breeze tries to get going. Kept the mention of precipitation out of the TAFs at this time due to low probabilities (20% or lower). South to southeast winds will persist through the period, with sustained wind speeds generally below 15 knots. However, a few gusts up to 20 knots remains possible, especially by mid/late afternoon. Patchy low level stratus will once again occur late tonight and overnight, with intermittent VFR/MVFR conditions at a few sites into early Wednesday morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

Light to moderate southerly winds will continue through tonight before falling to light on Wednesday. Winds look to briefly shift to the southeast on Thursday before becoming more southerly on Friday. Seas will generally be 2 to 3 feet through the week. Low rain chances this morning will increase into the medium range through the week, peaking Thursday afternoon.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 94 76 95 76 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 78 95 78 / 10 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 83 89 82 / 10 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 7 AM CDT this morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.