textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and dry weather conditions are expected through the weekend across southeast Texas with more locations with temperatures reaching the 90-degree mark.

- A wetter weather pattern returns by the middle of next week with some weekly rainfall totals at or over 1 inch becoming more likely.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Dry and benign weather conditions are ongoing due to ridging aloft and lighter winds as a result. In 24 hours this will change as the ridge axis shifts further east and onshore southerly surface winds return in earnest for a longer period of time (through most of next week). Longwave troughing will also arrive over the weekend to persist and eject across the Intermountain West, eventually orienting southwesterly flow across Texas. Multiple rounds of vorticity maxima embedded within this flow will serve as the catalyst for multiple rounds of convection, beginning on Monday and in earnest by next Tuesday. Long-range guidance currently suggests a more diurnally-influenced, sub-severe convective cycle with some lingering evening showers and thunderstorms. That said, slightly above normal temperatures are expected until then (some temperature maximums in the upper 80s/lower 90s) and near-normal temperatures (temperature maximums in the upper 80s) as the wet weather pattern returns by the middle of next week.

Cassel

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 624 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

Other than some low cigs in the Brazos Valley and a few areas of low cig/vis elsewhere, we expect mostly VFR conditions today into this evening. Winds will increase from the S to SE today, with sustained winds expected to approach 15 knots with gusts over 20 knots. Cigs are expected to decrease overnight, with possible MVFR across our northern zones after 06UTC.

MARINE

Issued at 1236 AM CDT Fri May 15 2026

As large-scale surface ridging begins to persist and build eastward over the next few days, a longer onshore fetch is also developing for the Upper Texas coastline. Forecast certainty continues to increase (up to 50-75% chance) for the threat of impactful wave heights along the Bolivar Peninsula by Sunday, with concurrent rip current threats being of concern well into the beginning of next week. Lower end Small Craft Advisories are becoming more likely as a result into early next week as onshore winds gain speed to moderate levels, building 4-6 ft. seas.

Cassel

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 71 89 75 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 91 74 89 76 / 0 0 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 77 85 79 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.