textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue into Saturday.

- Increased shower & thunderstorm chances this weekend as a front stalls in the area.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of storm chances late Tue-Wed next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Wx remains about status quo into Friday night: warm, muggy, somewhat breezy, and a non-zero chance of an isolated shra/tstm or two. Heading into Saturday, the northern portion of the mid- upper trof over the Rockies will lift northeastward and the southern portion of the trof will cutoff and sink to the southwest and toward the Baja region.

Albeit some model differences persist in terms of specific timing, the associated surface front should sag southward into parts of our area Saturday morning. PW's pooling in the 1.5-1.7" range in advance, frontal convergence, 30kt LLJ/inflow feeding feeding in perpendicular to the front, and some embedded mid level impulses riding parallel to the front should all allow for some shra/tstm activity to develop.

Given the evolving upper pattern, the front should eventually lose its southward push and stall/meander across portions of the region into Sunday night. With similar type set-ups aloft as described above, continued rain chances are probable. Though the rain is much welcomed, with time we'll need to keep an eye on the jet structure late Sat and Sat night as some deterministic guidance suggests an increasing diffluent flow aloft - which if materializes would favor some regenerative/training cells and the potential localized heavier totals. All that said, we are getting into the time of year where mesoscale processes can take over and cause some forecast deviations (ie rain cooled air pushes the boundary & focusing mechanism closer to the coast/offshore).

The stalled front should lift back north on Monday allowing for gradually lowering rain chances. The Baja trof kicks back out and tracks across Texas Tuesday and Wednesday and should bring back some higher chances of shra/tstms to the area. 47

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 532 AM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

Widespread low-end MVFR to high-end IFR conditions are being seen across SE Texas with CIGs between 700-1200ft, with periods of dense sea fog impacting GLS. These conditions are expected through the mid-morning hours, but the CIGs will eventually lift to high end MVFR (around 2500ft) and then VFR by the late morning/18z timeframe.

Breezy southerly winds are expected today with sustained winds around 10-14kt with gusts to 20-25kt expected. The elevated gusts will decrease this evening into tonight, but southerly winds around 7-10kt will persist through the night. Another night of low clouds is expected tonight with CIGs quickly dropping to around 700ft at CXO southwards between 3-5z. CLL and UTS will likely stay MVFR through the night with CIGs around 1200-1500ft. Periods of dense sea fog will also impact GLS overnight tonight into Friday morning.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1208 PM CST Thu Mar 5 2026

A long fetch of southeast winds will remain stretched from our coast waters well out into the Gulf through the weekend. Expect some slowly building seas. Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue at times, primarily in the Gulf waters off of Galveston, and maybe extreme southerly parts of Galveston Bay in the nighttime and early morning hours. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase Saturday night and Sunday with a stalled frontal boundary inland. This front should lift back northward on Monday. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 86 69 83 / 10 30 50 80 Houston (IAH) 70 84 71 84 / 10 30 30 70 Galveston (GLS) 68 75 68 76 / 10 30 20 50

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.