textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist on Matagorda and Galveston bays through mid week.

- Wet conditions around mid week with rainfall totals 0.25-1.0"

- Arctic Front should push through on Friday, bringing various winter hazards over the weekend: - Sub-Freezing Temps and possible Hard Freeze - Very Low Wind Chill Values, potentially to Single Digits - Risk of Freezing Rain, Sleet/Ice Pellets - Chance for Gale Conditions across waters and bays

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Cool and clear conditions continue today with yet another reinforcing cold front anticipated to move through the area later this afternoon/evening. Onshore flow will still be in place for many areas as peak heating sets in, thus highs are anticipated to reach the upper 50s/60s with some spots near or at the 70 degree mark. Conditions remain fairly dry as well with afternoon RH anticipated to bottom out around 20-30% percent. Thankfully winds with this reinforcing front should be rather weak, helping curb fire weather concerns. Still, it wouldn't hurt to remain somewhat cautious when working with open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks. Our reinforcing cold front pushes through the area tonight, then stall out over the Gulf waters early on Tuesday. Onshore flow returns Tuesday afternoon/evening as winds shift southeasterly again, allowing moisture to build into mid week.

Wednesday/Thursday are still anticipated to be a rather wet period in the forecast. PWs still forecasted to reach 1.0-1.7" on Wednesday as a mid/upper level shortwave trough pushes east though TX/Mexico. Guidance still shows a LLJ developing, though now with a large swath of the area covered by 20-30 knots winds. Model soundings still indicated saturated mid/lower levels with some instability present, all be it fairly low. Still have some discrepancies present with regards to how the event evolves as some models want to bring a reinforcing boundary following the passing shortwave, while others have the boundary trailing/stalling behind it (ENS & GEPS members leaning faster with the reinforcing FROPA while the GEFS favor slowing/stalling). Regardless, the bulk of the precipitation will likely occur with the passing shortwave trough. LREF rainfall totals have trended downwards since the last forecast cycle with the top 3 clusters (composed of 78% of members) suggesting the apex of rainfall totals to fall off the coast and further from shore than previously shown. Rainfall totals thus have been adjusted accordingly, now forecasted 0.25-1.0 inches with the greatest totals favored closer to the coast. NBM 90th percentile suggest that higher end amounts could reach up to 2.00 inches in some spots. As mentioned yesterday, soils are dry and FFG remains much higher than our potential higher-end totals. In either case, flooding is now much less of a concern.

Guidance suggests that moisture will improve as the remnants of the aforementioned front tries to lift north ahead of a strong Arctic cold front, currently slated to enter SE Texas Friday morning/afternoon, then off the coast by Saturday morning. This FROPA is shaping up to be "The Big One" of the the season for us with model & ensemble guidance showing a deep 1050mb surface high dropping into the plains behind this front. While this surface high does take an eastward swing in much of the guidance, SE Texas will still get clipped by it with some rather cold temperatures. Teleconnections all signaling a strong arctic event (per the evening crew) with the ECMWF EFI showing values of -0.6 to -0.8 for our area.

The first concern with this arctic blast will be the cold itself. As the last shift previously mentioned, we are VERY confident that this strong front will push through the area, and based on the signals currently shown, it is possible that this may end up being the coldest airmass to hit our area this winter. The NBM is already showing a Medium (40-60%) chance for the barrier islands to experience their first freeze of the season with this Arctic front during the morning of Sunday. There is already a Medium to High (40- 80%) chance that areas north of I-10/SW US-59 will experience a hard freeze (temperatures <=24 for SE Texas) early on Sunday with areas to the south having a Medium to Low (< 40%) chance. Cannot completely rule out the potential of a Hard Freeze for Saturday morning either with NBM showing a Medium to Low chance (40% or less). These Arctic airmasses can have very shallow cold layers that global models can struggle to pick up on, so we'll have to keep an especially close eye on the timing of this airmass once we start to approaching CAM-range. In fact, we can already see an outlier in the NBM CONUS member dataset on DESI, as two members show low temperatures of 65-70 degrees for Sunday morning... All things considered this looks to be a rather egregious outlier that's likely already skewing the NBM warmer, thus have opted to lower temperatures to the 50th percentile at minimum for Sunday/Monday morning.

Temperatures may change quite a bit over the next several days, depending how the forecast evolves. Though for now, low temperatures for Saturday morning are progged in the upper 20s/mid 40s. Highs during the day briefly warm above freezing (at least for now), but should plunge back down at night. Lows for Sunday morning are currently forecasted to be Sub-freezing, as low as the mid teens in some spots across the north. Breezy winds with this FROPA should also drag down the wind chill quite a bit throughout the weekend. Saturday's wind chill temperatures could be in the lower 30s to upper teens. The worst is still tentatively expected for Sunday, where there is a risk of seeing wind chills in the 20s to lower teens... possibly single digits in a less optimistic scenario. Again, I cannot stress enough that these winter environments can be highly dynamic and I would encourage folks to check in on the forecast daily for changes. As it currently stands, I believe there is high confidence in seeing Hard-Freeze & Cold Weather headlines at a minimum as this weekend approaches.

The second big concern with this arctic event is with respect to winter precipitation. As it currently stands, this arctic front does not appear to be a dry one with growing confidence that moisture will linger... potentially producing some form of frozen precipitation. While we're still several days out, there is at least a broader picture emerging among model & ensemble guidance. Again this comes with a big Astrix of *Subject To Change* so don't lock in this forecast just yet. We'll see subfreezing surface temperatures fill in behind the front overnight into early Saturday as the DGZ Saturates. Rather large warm nose from 650-950mb, though again subfreezing surface conditions suggest the potential for some freezing rain across the Brazos Valley & Piney Woods. Temperatures warm slightly during the daytime, though some areas may remain near or below the freezing mark in our upper reaches... Sleet/ice pellets become a more feasible possibility with FZRA as CAA erodes the warm nose aloft, especially Saturday night into Sunday morning for the northern half of our CWA (I-10/SW US-59). We'll start to see drier air fill in aloft around this time into Sunday as daytime heating pulls surface temperatures up again. The risk of winter precipitation should continue to decline as drier air keeps filling in.

To summarize, there is a risk of winter precipitation over SE Texas from Friday night through Sunday afternoon. Freezing rain will be the main concern, but some sleet/ice pellets may also develop as well. Areas most at risk include locations north of (I-10/SW US-59). Once again, we encourage folks to closely monitor the forecast these next several days.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 543 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

VFR conditions prevail through the period. Winds will be light and variable this morning, becoming SE around 5-10 kts this afternoon Gusts to above 15 kts will be possible after 20Z due to enhanced sea/bay breeze.

MARINE

Issued at 1228 PM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the first half of the work week, especially at low tide. Low Water Advisories remain in effect through at least Tuesday's low tide cycle with the upper bays likely to experience the worst of these conditions. Next cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday. Onshore winds return and strengthen Tuesday evening, likely prompting caution flags at least. The stalled boundary gradually lifts north into Wednesday with more widespread rainfall through Thursday as another weather system pushes through. A strong arctic cold front is expected to push off the coast on Friday. Strong northerly winds and high seas are likely in it's wake. Gale Conditions will be possible in the wake of this front on Saturday/Sunday. NBM shows a Medium (40-60%) chance of Gale conditions developing over the Gulf with a Low (20-40%) chance in the Bays.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 39 63 54 65 / 0 0 30 70 Houston (IAH) 44 66 56 68 / 0 0 20 80 Galveston (GLS) 55 63 59 66 / 0 0 20 80

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for GMZ330.

Low Water Advisory until 10 PM CST Tuesday for GMZ335.