textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Another temperate and dry day expected for Monday, though warmer than this past weekend. - Marine conditions have improved but a long fetch of moderate easterly winds develops early this week, which may occasionally require intermittent caution or advisory flags.

- Warmer temperatures return this week, but just seasonable in nature. Rain chances will generally remain low across our CWA outside of Tuesday, where a passing Gulf trough could bring rain to our offshore waters and Matagorda Bay.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

More of the same with this forecast cycle. Building high pressure keeps humidity low, winds gentle (5-10 mph) out of the east, and skies mostly clear to partly cloudy. Under these conditions, temperatures continue to rise steadily, with highs on Monday and Tuesday reaching the upper 70s-mid 80s with inland lows in the low 50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s. The front part of the workweek brings the "highest" chances for rain, but is largely confined offshore. Monday sees PoPs of 10-30% off Brazoria and Matagorda county coasts. A surface trough brings slightly elevated PWATs (~1.5", near seasonal average) to Matagorda Bay throughout the day on Tuesday. While the main threat remains offshore, 20-40 PoPs approach the coastline. Around these showers Monday and Tuesday, winds are a touch stronger offshore ~15-20 mph and seas elevate to ~3-5 ft. Similar setup on Wednesday brings 15-30% PoPs, dissipating through the afternoon.

After our coast-isolated showers, the rest of the week is dry and continues warming. This is partially explained by an Omega Block developing aloft by Wednesday. These upper level patterns essentially "trap" high pressure and, for our region, indicate dry weather and light winds. By Thursday, high temperatures are largely in the mid-upper 80s and persist through the weekend. Inland lows in the mid 50s-60s and coastal lows in the mid 60s-low 70s.

BSM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 512 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

VFR conditions and light northerly winds continue to prevail. Satellite imagery and observations depict BKN mid-level clouds between 3500-5000 ft beginning to develop west of I-45...can't entirely rule out a brief period of high-end MVFR ceilings through mid-morning. Later this morning, winds will become easterly around 5-10 kt inland with winds near 15 kt along the coast through the afternoon. Winds will become light and variable after sunset, then start out the day light and northeasterly on Tuesday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1204 AM CDT Mon Oct 19 2026

As high pressure transitions off to our east, a long fetch of moderate easterly winds will set up across the northern Gulf Coast this week. Speeds will generally be between 10 and 20 knots and seas in the 3 to 5 foot range through midweek, though there could be some intermittent periods of slightly higher speeds and seas in the offshore Gulf waters which could warrant caution or advisory flags for short time periods for the first half of the week.

47/BSM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 55 82 56 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 78 59 82 61 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 77 72 79 72 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.