textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate risk of heat-related impacts this weekend into early next week.

- Persistent southeasterly flow will lead to a steady climb in humidity, potentially triggering spotty/isolated, diurnally- driven showers/storms throughout the weekend. Best rain and storm chances early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Per satellite and surface obs, the ridge axis is currently positioned overhead, while at the surface, the high pressure is currently centered over the coastal waters. Forecast soundings suggest 850mb temperatures in the low 20s this afternoon. Mixing these temperatures to the surface will yield highs generally in the low 90s. Practice heat safety if you have outdoor plans for this afternoon or early evening. Another tranquil night is anticipated with overnight lows mainly in the 70s. Patchy fog (mostly low-lying) is again expected, especially south of I-10.

Mid to upper level heights will begin to fall as the ridge axis slides to our east. Medium range guidance continues to be in better agreement in a shortwave trough moving into the central/southern Plains, which will turn the flow more zonal across the central CONUS by Friday and beyond. A tightening pressure gradient due to a developing low over the central Plains will lead to breezy conditions and stronger WAA across SE TX through the weekend. In fact, PWs will be on the increase (1.5 - 1.9 inch) through early next week. Given the increased humidity and WAA, isolated showers/storms cannot ruled out over the weekend. In addition to rain chances, it will feel very humid. Surface dewpoints are expected to be in the 70s late this weekend into the upcoming week. These warm and humid conditions will lead to peak heat indices of 95 to 100F Sunday through at least Tuesday. A moderate risk of heat- related impacts is anticipated, i.e. these conditions may affect those who are sensitive to heat or without adequate cooling and hydration.

As we head into the upcoming week,a stronger shortwave trough will move across the northern Rockies and High Plains, resulting in several disturbances ahead of it. This "messy" pattern aloft will provide enough forcing for showers and storms Monday and Tuesday. As of now, the best chance for scattered to widespread showers and storms is late Tuesday into Wednesday due to the passage of a weak frontal boundary. Overall, daily rain and storm chances are expected through the entire week as persistent southerly flow at the surface keeps the region warm and humid, while multiple disturbances aloft provide enough forcing for rain to occur.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 AM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Other than some early morning patchy fog, expect VFR conditions through the rest of the day. SSW winds late this morning will become S to SSE by mid/late afternoon. Houston area could experience a period of SE 10-13 kt winds as the bay breeze pushes inland late afternoon and early evening. Winds are expected to decrease again by evening and overnight.

MARINE

Issued at 147 PM CDT Thu May 14 2026

Surface high pressure is currently centered across the northwestern Gulf, resulting in light southerly winds across the Upper TX coast. While winds and seas will generally remain light/low through late evening; expect some gusts along the coast and bays with the seabreeze late this afternoon. Winds become slightly stronger by Friday, with speeds between 12 to 20 knots. Moderate onshore winds and building seas (4 to 6 ft) can be expected through the weekend and into the upcoming week. Small craft should exercise caution through the weekend, with low-end advisory levels possible early next week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 68 89 71 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 92 71 90 73 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 76 83 77 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.