textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm and breezy conditions expected Sunday, with highs reaching the mid to upper 80s. - Another cooldown is on the way after the next cold front, which will be accompanied by showers/storms Sunday afternoon/evening. Strong storms are possible along the frontal boundary.

- A Wind Advisory is in effect Sunday morning and will continue into Monday afternoon for all of Southeast TX.

- Hazardous marine conditions expected in the wake of the front through Monday: strong northerly winds (gusting to 40+ kt), elevated seas (10-15 ft), and potential for negative tides. A Gale Watch is in effect Sunday night through Monday afternoon.

- Monitoring the potential for elevated to critical fire weather conditions on Monday as very dry air overlaps with gusty northerly winds. A Fire Weather Watch is in effect for Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Tranquil conditions expected tonight with southerly winds at around 10 mph and lows in the 60s. Some isolated locations could see some patchy fog, but winds will likely be strong enough to deter fog development for most locations. We will, however, have low cloud decks develop tonight into Sunday morning. Conditions will warm up quick on Sunday as moisture converges ahead of cold front, and highs will be peaking in the mid to upper 80s inland and the upper 70s along the coasts. Breezy conditions are expected for much of the day as the pressure gradient tightens prior to the frontal passage. Winds will be south-southwesterly at 15 to 25 mph with gusts of around 25 to 30 mph. A Wind Advisory will be in effect starting at 10 AM Sunday. Make sure to secure loose objects. For those wanting to visit the beaches, make sure to verify the marine and beach flag conditions given that winds and seas will be rising and strong rip currents may develop along the beaches.

Model guidance has been consistent on how fast the cold front is to move across Southeast Texas. The front will be very progressive, progged to arrive the Brazos Valley and Piney woods region roughly around 4 pm and make it into the coastal Gulf waters around 9 pm. With respect to rain chances, moisture will be a bit limited with PWs rising to around 0.8-0.9 inches, and forecast soundings still show capping during the morning to mid afternoon hours. Thus, very limited rain activity is expected ahead of the front. Showers and storms are likely to be focused along the boundary as instability increases (weakening the cap), moisture converges strengthens, and we have the added lift from the front. Mid-level lapse rates of around 7 C/km and shear will be present as the front rolls through as well. There is the potential for some of these storms to become strong to severe, capable of producing damaging winds and hail. SPC continues a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) over the Piney Woods region and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the rest of Southeast TX. Make sure to have multiple ways of receiving weather alerts and warnings.

Cold dry air along with a 50-60 knot low level jet will quickly filter in behind the front Sunday night. Expect strong northerly winds Sunday night into Monday - speeds will range between 20-30 mph with gusts of 30-40 mph, highest over the coastal locations. The Wind Advisory will continue in effect through 6 PM Monday. Make sure to secure loose and light outdoor objects. Strong winds could also lead to power outages at times. The temperatures Sunday night will dip fast with temperatures expected to be in the upper 30s to mid 40s for many locations by sunrise on Monday.

Winds begin to slowly decrease Monday afternoon and the colder conditions prevail with highs in the 50s - a stark difference from Sunday's warm temperatures. But we're not mad about it at all :D. The one thing we will have to monitor closely on Monday is the potential for elevated fire weather given how dry and windy we will be (more details on the Fire Weather Discussion below). Winds will relax to around 5-10 mph early Monday night and CAA will continue during the nighttime hours, giving us the coldest temperatures for this week. Expect lows to be in the lower 30s (near freezing) over the Piney Woods, the mid 30s to lower 40s for the rest of the inland portions, and the mid to upper 40s along the coasts.

Fair weather will prevail for the rest of the work week. Southerly flow will return Tuesday and continue into the rest of the work week, resulting in another warming trend with highs back in the 80s by Thursday and the upper 80s to lower 90s this weekend.

Cotto

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Areas of MVFR cigs should trend VFR as the morning progresses. Gusty S to SW winds are expected today, with gusts over 20 knots expected. A cold front will push quickly through the region late afternoon and early evening. A broken line of shra/tsra is expected along the front. A few storms may become severe, with damaging wind gusts the primary concern. Behind the front, expect strong gusty winds tonight into Monday morning. Gusts over 30 knots are likely. Gusts over 40 knots are possible, especially near the coast. Low- level wind shear will need to be monitored. Surface winds are expected to be high enough to keep wind shear values below thresholds. However, it's possible surface winds could decrease somewhat after 06-09UTC while winds aloft remain the same, suggesting a potential increase in wind shear risk late tonight and/or early tomorrow morning.

MARINE

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Light to moderate onshore flow and seas of 2-3 feet expected tonight. Winds increase Sunday ahead of a strong cold front and seas will gradually build. A Small Craft Advisory will be in effect from 7 AM to 10 PM Sunday. For those visiting the beaches on Sunday, make sure to check the beach flag conditions given that there will be the potential for strong rip currents along the Gulf facing beaches.

The cold front will move into the coastal waters very quickly early Sunday night. Associated showers and thunderstorms will be mostly focused along the boundary as it pushes through and some of these storms could become strong to severe. In the wake of the front, strong northerly winds of 30-35 knots and gusts of 40-45 knots will develop. A Gale Warning will likely be in effect from Sunday evening through Monday afternoon. In addition, low water levels are possible in the bays.

Winds will begin to relax Monday evening and seas will gradually subside Monday night into Tuesday. Light onshore winds return Tuesday night and continue Thursday. Winds may veer south- southwesterly Friday into Saturday.

Cotto

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Very dry air will filter across Southeast TX in the wake of Sunday's front. Expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions as afternoon RH values lower into the upper teens to lower 20s on Monday and northerly winds are around 20 mph with gusts of 25 to 30 mph. A Fire Weather Watch will be in effect for most of Southeast TX on Monday. Dry conditions prevail on Tuesday, but winds will veer southeasterly and be much lighter. RH values will begin to increase mid week into the end of the work week as south-southeasterly winds prevail and low level moisture recovers.

Cotto

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 90 41 55 34 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 86 46 58 40 / 10 30 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 78 50 60 48 / 0 40 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 PM CDT Monday for TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338-436>439.

Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for TXZ176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313- 335>338.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.

Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.