textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to widespread showers and storms are expected through this evening. Locally heavy downpours and gusty winds are the primary risks. - Scattered to widespread storms are anticipated again on Sunday.

- Though isolated to scattered precipitation is expected on a daily basis during the early and mid parts of next week, overall areal coverage should be a bit less...and we'll see some warmer temperatures.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Mid to upper level low continues to spin over southwestern LA and southeastern TX today. At the surface, east to southeast flow continues to bring a warm and more humid Gulf airmass, keeping the region with PWATs into the 2 - 2.3 inches range. Therefore, widespread scattered showers and isolated storms are expected to spread further inland this afternoon. Peak daytime heating and the interaction of the seabreeze with any outflow boundaries will support more scattered thunderstorms inland through early this evening. Deep low to mid level moisture will support localized heavy downpours this afternoon, which could lead to flooding. A Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall continues today for most of Southeast Texas (Day 1- WPC Outlook).

The aforementioned upper low will approach even closer to our region on Sunday. Hi-res guidance continues to suggest even deeper moisture filtering into Southeast TX later tonight into Sunday with PWATs running up to 2.4 inches. Therefore, scattered to widespread activity is forecast with convection starting as early as near sunrise. As the day progresses, instability, moisture, and various outflow interactions will maintain thunderstorm chances through early Sunday evening. These storms will also be capable of producing heavy downpours, potentially leading to localized flooding.

Monday through at least midweek, looks hotter with daily rain and storm chances. A mid to upper lvl ridge centered across the central/southern Plains will expand slightly southward into our region, bringing some drier air/subsidence across Southeast TX. This will result in lower rain/storm chances, which will be isolated to scattered in coverage; particularly for our northern counties. Temperatures early next week are forecast to reach the low to mid 90s, with the warmest readings across our far northern and western counties. Heat indices in the 102 to 109F range are expected.

Medium range guidance continues to suggest increased rain and storm chances towards the end of the work week as a weak mid-level disturbance over the north-central/northwestern Gulf moves westward into the region. This disturbance is progged to bring an uptick in moisture, with the highest probabilities over the coastal counties and coastal waters, especially in the afternoon when combined with seabreezes interaction. With lingering moisture across the region, and our typical mesoscale features, rain/storm chances will continue well into the upcoming weekend with isolated to scattered afternoon convection.

JM

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Scattered showers and isolated storms will continue through the afternoon, then later taper off into the evening. Light variable winds are expected overnight with patchy fog/low CIGs possible early Sunday morning, though FL reductions should be short lived. Showers will develop over the Gulf waters early Sunday morning, slowly moving inland with thunderstorms forming as the day progresses. Timing for these showers/storms is less certain. Some TAF sites could see these showers/storms arrive several hours earlier compared to previous days... thus have opted to widen the window for VCSH/TSRA.

03

MARINE

Issued at 159 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Upper level disturbances over the northwestern Gulf will continue to bring a daily risk of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Upper TX coast this weekend and into the week. These storms will be capable of producing heavy downpours and frequent lightning as the primary risks with the storms; however, erratic winds and building seas cannot be ruled out near any strong storms. Otherwise, light to occasionally moderate onshore winds and seas into the 2 to 3 ft range will prevail through late next week.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 95 75 97 / 30 40 0 20 Houston (IAH) 77 94 78 95 / 50 50 10 40 Galveston (GLS) 82 91 82 91 / 40 50 20 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.