textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Fog will remain a possibility nightly through the next few nights.

- Unseasonably warm weather will continue through this week. - Some isolated rainfall expected midweek, but there is potential for locally heavy rainfall this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

We'll finish up the first day of the new work week with warm and pleasant weather. Afternoon highs should reach the 70s/mid 80s with overnight lows in the 60s. Several disturbances are anticipated to pass north of our area throughout the work week, each of which will attempt to send a cold front our way. The first of these fronts is stalling near north-central Texas and should retreat north tonight.

The next front should be approaching SE Texas Wednesday afternoon/evening, but it too looks like it will stall out near the Red River Valley before reaching us. Even with the front to our north, the influx of deeper moisture (1.3-1.6" PWs) and lift should at least introduce some showers and thunderstorms to the forecast beginning on Wednesday. Anticipate a lull in PoPs for Thursday as the front retreats north. Otherwise, warm weather will be allowed to continue through the work week with highs in the 70s/mid 80s with lows in the 60s.

One more front should push towards SE Texas heading into the weekend, and as it currently stands, this front has much better chances of reaching our area. LREF ensembles have pushed back this front more towards the Sunday time frame, and on the whole less ensemble members are showing the northerly wind shift indicative of a FROPA at KCLL, indicating that the front could very well stall out just north of our area. In addition, different members solutions seem to be more distinctly separated by suite with ENS members leaning towards keeping the front out/north of SE Texas. Current guidance still suggests better rain chances and overall cooler temperatures through the weekend, though confidence in the position of this front is low at the moment. With a stalled boundary in the vicinity, deeper PWs of 1.5-1.8" and a robust upper level low approaching from Baja California, locally heavy rainfall will also be a concern throughout this weekend. Again, it's several days out and the specific details will likely change as a result, so stay tuned for forecast updates.

03

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 529 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Not many changes from the previous cycle. Main question will be handling of nocturnal degradation of flight conditions with CIGs and/or VSBY limitations. When there was a discrepancy between the two, my tendency was to favor persistence over guidance (sometimes this was optimistic, sometimes pessimistic), but leave opportunities for quick and easy amendment if needed, and to signal alternate potential.

MARINE

Issued at 1134 AM CST Mon Mar 2 2026

Sea fog chances continue to decrease, but remain possible these next few nights. If any develops, sea fog should be patchy in nature with only isolated smaller pockets of dense sea fog during the early morning hours. Light to moderate winds and low seas will continue through the upcoming work week. Low rain chances return on Wednesday, but are expected to increase this weekend ahead of another possible cold front.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 63 85 66 84 / 0 0 10 40 Houston (IAH) 66 83 68 83 / 0 10 0 30 Galveston (GLS) 65 75 65 75 / 0 10 0 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.