textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Conditions will turn sharply towards the wintry after a strong cold front finishes passing through the region overnight.

- Hazardous marine conditions continue on the waters - but the dense fog of recent nights will be replaced by near-Gale to Gale conditions on coastal waters. On coastal islands and peninsulas, the expected gusty winds have also prompted a wind advisory for Sunday.

- Freezing overnight temperatures are anticipated for a good portion of SE TX late Sunday night into Monday morning. Freeze Watches have been posted for locations that haven't seen their first freeze of the season.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A cold front is making its way across Southeast Texas late this evening. For now, the main indicator of the front passing is a smattering of scattered showers, mostly to the east of I-45. However, once the cold airmass behind the front starts to surge into the area, we should see conditions change fairly quickly.

Whatever temperatures are at midnight? That's going to be the high for today, as post-frontal north winds will pick up quickly to signal the arrival of the western fringes of a sharp, arctic airmass pushing into the Continental US. Temperatures will fall through the night, then hold steady and...maybe...rise a few degrees during the day, then head right on back to falling once the sun is low enough that it can no longer overcome the combined powers of radiational cooling and cold air advection. Winds will be gusty, but not necessarily excessively so for most of the area for any real duration. Peak gusts may end up being around 30 mph over the rural west, but should mostly be in the 10-20 mph range with some gusts up into the 20s. This is getting awfully close to the threshold for a wind advisory, but without sustained winds above 25 mph or several hours of gusts over that, I've opted to hold off for now. The exception to this? Chambers County (primarily the parts downwind of Trinity Bay) and area islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway. These locations should all have relatively low-friction surfaces upstream of them, allowing winds to crank up a bit more. So, I did opt to issue a wind advisory for those zones today. Once the sun goes down and we lose the ability to mix down stronger winds just aloft, gusts should come down significantly.

Also going down significantly overnight into Monday morning? Yup, those temperatures. A large freeze watch remains in place for locations that are expected to see relatively widespread dips below freezing tonight for the first time this season. Yesterday was probably the best time to finish off those cold weather prep while it was still warm - but if you've got some exposed pipes to wrap, plants to bring in, etc. you'll have all day today to take care of that as well.

Though this shot of wintry air will be chilly, no doubt, it also looks to be pretty short-lived. Winds look to turn back around to being onshore later on Monday, which will begin us on the process of bringing in warmer, more humid Gulf air. It won't be an immediate turnaround - Monday night will still be a cold one across the area - but probabilities for sub-freezing temps go way down for all but the Piney Woods beyond Lake Livingston.

After this cold shot, we do have a couple more things to keep an eye out for this week. The first will be Wednesday as an upper trough scoots across Texas, potentially also spinning up a trough or weak low over the Gulf. We certainly do have plenty of the ingredients for our next round of showers and perhaps some storms in the general area for this period. But, it's also probably worth mentioning that any surface low looks to be well offshore, which won't necessarily be great for strong low level moisture return. I've got slight chance (well inland) to chance (coast) PoPs late Tuesday night and Wednesday, but I don't know that there's a whole lot to say about it beyond that. Unless...in the next couple of days, guidance starts to line up these holes in the cheese a little more. Something to evaluate over the next couple of days, but from the data I have now, not particularly worrying.

Later this week, we'll look for our next cold front in the train to move on through. Unlike tonight's front, which is powered by a deepening upper trough and pool of arctic air surging into the CONUS...this next one will see flow aloft remain more zonal, and the coldest air remain hemmed up in the northern tier of the country...at least until the 1040+ mb surface high drops in, but by then, it will be well to the east of us. For here, Friday looks to get a bit cooler, and Friday night a little chilly (think lows in the 40s and 50s, not 20s and 30s). But really, it will just be the quick hop step as we polka our way towards higher temperatures and the weekend. No? Nothing? Huh, that line woulda been big in Sheboygan...

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 558 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

A somewhat tricky forecast for the overnight period. Cigs and vis are expected to continue to lower this evening and tonight to IFR-MVFR and areas of patchy to dense fog could also reduce vis for some of our sites, in particular for sites closer to the water due to the development of sea fog. In addition, iso-sct showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead and along a cold front that is progged to move through SE TX tonight. Winds will be light and VRB tonight, but N winds at 15-20 KTS with gusts of 23-30 KTS will develop in the wake of the front. Cigs will gradually lift and scatter out on Sun as drier air moves in, but winds will remain elevated through the evening, gradually relaxing during the night hours.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1111 PM CST Sat Dec 13 2025

In the remaining hours before the front arrives, expect light onshore winds, low seas, and even patchy fog redevelopment. The front is about to move into the Houston metro, and should be pushing into the bays after midnight, and out over the Gulf between 3 and 6 am.

While light winds and any fog may linger for a short while after the front passes, they will scour out shortly afterwards as strong, gusty north to northeast winds build in the front's wake. Along with the strong winds, building seas will follow. Gusts to near gale force are expected on the bays, and frequent gusts to or above gale are likely on the Gulf. A Small Craft Advisory is in place for the Bays and a Gale Warning on the Gulf until late Sunday night. For those working onshore, a wind advisory is in place on all islands and peninsulas beyond the Intracoastal Waterway as well as Chambers County on Sunday.

Winds and seas gradually diminish Monday morning, and return to a southeast direction by Monday night. The quick turn in winds should prevent low tides from getting low enough to require a Low Water Advisory, but we should still see a few low tide cycles with levels around or slightly below MLLW.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 48 53 30 55 / 20 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 53 57 33 54 / 40 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 61 37 53 / 50 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Freeze Watch from late Sunday night through Monday morning for TXZ178-195>200-210>214-227-300-313.

Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM CST Sunday for TXZ214-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 9 AM CST Sunday for GMZ350-355- 370-375.

Gale Warning from 9 AM Sunday to 3 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355- 370-375.