textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday

- Next storm system moves into the area late Tuesday night and Wednesday. Will be monitoring the potential for some localized strong storms and/or heavy rain.

- Less active weather anticipated during the second half of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Water vapor imagery currently shows a trough right overtop of SE Texas with some isolated showers/storms near the coast this afternoon. CAMs keep convective activity sparse inland compared to the waters, though there is a slight signal for a scattered cluster of wrap-around activity to the northwest, reaching the Brazos Valley later in the afternoon. Still, the bulk of the showers/storms are expected to be around the coast over the next several hours, later tapering off tonight. Rainfall totals today should also be pretty hit or miss. Most spots will not get any rain, others only a brief shower/storm with totals generally under an inch. However, there is still a weak signal for some localized higher downpours with totals in the range of 1-3 inches. Even if storms manage to train/overperform, 1 HR FFG for SE Texas is 2.75-3.5" inches, thus much of the region should be able to manage these rainfall amounts. In summary, the flood risk for Memorial day is too low to warrant any outlook from WPC. If anything, thunderstorms are the more immediate concern given the influx of beach goers for Memorial day. When thunder roars, go indoors!

On Tuesday, the trough overhead will fill N/NNE. NVA and a pocket of drier air sliding in overhead should decrease rain chances slightly during the daytime. Isolated, pulsy showers/storms will still be possible, especially later in the afternoon around peak. Another brief downturn in PoPs is progged to occur in the evening as instability wanes, though activity is expected to pick up overnight.

Overnight through early Wednesday looks to be the main period of disruptive weather in the forecast. Aloft, another upper level shortwave trough should dig into the western half of the state. As it does, a cluster of showers & thunderstorms will propagate along this feature, tracking with robust PVA and a diffluent region aloft. PWs surge to roughtly 1.8-2.1 over SE Texas as this system approaches our area. Timing generally favors this complex of showers/storms reaching SE Texas after midnight, during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Intensity and timing is still rather variable between models, though CAMs keep the bulk of the activity west of I-45 prior to 7 AM on Wednesday. The trough itself does appear to slow and elongate due to ridging over the Northern Plains/Mississippi amplifying from omega blocking. As a result, widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms should continue across SE Texas throughout Wednesday, with activity slowly diminishing from west to east overnight into Thursday morning as the trough moves out of our area.

WPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall covering areas west of the Navasota/Brazos River from Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning as the system enters SE Texas. All of SE Texas will be under a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of excessive rainfall throughout Wednesday, covering the apex of the heaviest rains through early Thursday morning. Areas east of the Navasota/Brazos River will be under a Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of excessive rainfall on Thursday to cover lingering showers as the heavy rain threat diminishes. Rainfall totals are still forecasted to range from roughtly 1-2 inches, though locally higher amounts to 3-5 inches will still be possible. Soils are still slightly saturated (~30% near the coast) from recent heavy rains, and thus will be slightly more prone to runoff than areas further inland. Street flooding could occur, especially in urban and low lying areas. Remember to monitor the forecast and turn around if you encounter flooded roadways!

Quieter weather sets in on Friday as ridging amplifies over the Plains. A few disturbances and impulses may undercut the ridge and pass through SE Texas, keeping daily rain chances in the forecast heading into the weekend. A closed low passing through the northeastern CONUS may send a weak backdoor cold front to SE Texas on Sunday. Still several days out, though if it does reach SE Texas we can anticipate an uptick in rain chances through Sunday into early next week.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 630 AM CDT Mon May 25 2026

KCXO experiencing IFR CIGs this morning. All other terminals at VFR. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon. Low confidence on exactly where these will occur. Light patchy fog will be possible again overnight. Winds will generally be light out of the east through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 131 PM CDT Mon May 25 2026

Light east-northeast winds continue this afternoon, shifting southeast this evening then later increasing on Tuesday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible at times, especially during the afternoon hours. The next weather system and significant round of storms will push into the waters early Wednesday morning. Expect widespread showers and embedded storms throughout Wednesday, some of which may be strong. Expect higher winds, seas and reduced visibility in and around thunderstorms. Rain chances decrease from west to east overnight with lingering showers/storms on Thursday. Isolated rain chances continue through the end of the work week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 70 88 72 78 / 20 20 70 90 Houston (IAH) 72 88 75 81 / 20 20 40 100 Galveston (GLS) 77 85 79 84 / 10 20 40 90

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.