textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak heat index values between 103-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday. - High rip current risk along area beaches through Monday

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

id-lvl ridging will continue to shift eastward into the Mississippi Valley today before shifting further northeastward into the Ohio Valley and eventually the Mid-Atlantic in the mid to late week period. Despite the ridge axis gradually distancing itself from the area, its subsidence inversion and associated mid-lvl dry air will remain stubbornly in place today and Monday, keeping precip chances limited to maybe a couple rogue showers. Additionally the long- advertised SAL plume will reach the area late this afternoon with dust concentrations peaking on Monday which will further suppress rain chances. It remains to be seen if the SAL will have any impact on air quality Monday (this far west it often remains aloft) but skies will become hazier.

By mid to late week the ridge will have shifted far enough northeast of the area to allow some moisture to filter in from the east along its southern periphery. However, guidance is coming into better agreement that the best moisture and lift looks to focus around a weak upper-lvl disturbance which is progged to track north and east of the area. Consequently rain chances Wednesday-Friday may be limited to isolated sea-breeze induced activity with fcst PoPs only in the 15-30% range, with the highest chances over eastern portions of the area.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s each day outside of the immediate coast. There won't be much relief at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105- 107 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major (orange to red) heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk guidance hints as a low (10-15%) chance for some locations to experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 649 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Patchy stratus, currently causing MVFR ceilings, should lift and erode over the next couple of hours. VFR expected to prevail thereafter, with gusty southerly winds throughout the daytime. Gusts 20-25 knots will be common through the afternoon and into the early evening hours. Winds subside greatly after midnight tonight. As a result, guidance has a stronger signal of low-level stratus developing overnight, perhaps even developing around sunset at the earliest at some TAF sites. Overall forecast confidence: Medium.

MARINE

Issued at 1206 AM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Moderate to fresh southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail through Monday. Winds and seas will decrease slightly Tuesday into the mid-week period. There will be a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through at least Monday. Rain chances will remain very low through early next week, increasing to the low to medium range by mid/late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 94 78 96 76 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 80 95 78 / 0 0 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 89 84 89 83 / 10 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.