textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A line of storms moves in from northwest on Sunday morning/afternoon. A few storms could become strong to severe and be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and localized flooding. Best chance of strong to severe storms will be in the Piney Woods and portions of the Brazos Valley.

- Strong rip currents expected along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend.

- Increasingly summer-like weather by the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

A ridge axis continues to slide out to the east as an upper level low gradually pushes into the western CONUS. That upper low plays more of a role going into midweek, but our attention is first turned to Sunday. Before we talk about the high-res guidance, let's first talk about the environment. PW values will be approaching the MAX percentile (~1.88") by Sunday morning. In addition to this, a passing jet streak and LLJ will have portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods in the right entrance region providing upper level divergence. Another addition to this is a passing embedded shortwave trough that pushes through northern/central Texas. There will be at least some instability in place (~1200-1800 J/kg MUCAPE) in our northern counties, but greater amounts of instability will be off to our west. There will be plenty of shear as well with bulk shear (0-6km) around 40 kt in the Brazos Valley. The latest CAMs reflect a cluster of thunderstorms developing over in western central Texas overnight and moving eastward through Sunday morning. There is uncertainty in if these storms will hold together all the way into the Brazos Valley in the mid to late morning hours of Sunday. IF these storms hold together, a few embedded storms could be strong to severe and capable of producing all severe hazards (damaging wind gusts, hail, isolated tornadoes). As a result, SPC has outlined portions of the Brazos Valley and the Piney Woods in a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather. The best idea for timing is around 10AM-1PM...the earlier solutions tend to favor the line dying out before it arrives.

The one caveat to that is the 00Z ARW which has initialized fairly well with the storms out in western Texas this evening. This pushes an MCS into the Brazos Valley around sunrise and holds it together through most of Southeast Texas through the early to mid morning hours. In this scenario, there would be no second round of afternoon storms as the environment would be way too worked over for additional development. This for now is an outlier as the southern end of the line manages to hold together. This certainly is worth mentioning though. We'll continue to monitor both the trends in the CAMs and on the radar overnight.

There is another conditional threat for strong to severe storms in the afternoon hours as well. Some of the CAMs reflect additional convection developing in the early to mid afternoon generally west of the Brazos River. If these storms develop, the environment would still be conducive for a few storms to become strong to severe. This is reasoning for the portion of the marginal risk that covers areas near and west of the Brazos River. With PW values near or exceeding the max percentile, there is potential for locally heavy rainfall in any of the stronger storms. High rainfall rates (2-3+"/hr) for an extended period of time could lead to instances of localized urban and small stream flooding. As a result, WPC has outlined areas generally north of a Columbus-Conroe-Trinity line in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) of excessive rainfall on Sunday. A marginal risk (level 1 of 4) extends just southward of that and covers down into areas just north of Matagorda Bay, northwestern portions of the Houston metro area, and the remaining portion of the Piney Woods. Rainfall totals of 1-2" will be common in these areas, but locally higher amounts of 3-4+" are possible as well.

Beyond Sunday, we remain in a pattern with southwesterly flow aloft with plenty of embedded shortwaves leading to slight daily chances for showers and storms mainly over our northern areas. There are a lot of eyes on the severe weather potential in the central/southern plains on Tuesday and Wednesday next week, and that threat does remain to our northwest on both days. As an upper level trough sweeps through the central CONUS early next week (from the upper low we previously discussed earlier), it will aid in the development of storms off of a dry line over in western Texas. It's not entirely out of the question for storms to clip portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, but there will be a cap in place that would need to be overcome (especially on Tuesday).

Temperatures will go a gradual upward trend throughout the week with highs on Sunday mainly in the low 80s then in the mid 80s by midweek and the upper 80s by the end of the work week. Isolated spots reaching the 90s isn't entirely out of the question either. Low temperatures will mainly be in the upper 60s to the low 70s throughout the forecast period. Each day is a day closer to the summer that we all know and lov...well I don't love it, but I know some of y'all do. To each their own!

Batiste

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 654 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

As of this evening shower activity has either broken down or moved off the TAF sites with impacts coming from the linger cloud cover over the area. MVFR CIGs are expected to build as we head into the overnight hours with potential to once again see a brief period of IFR CIGs during the early morning hours of Sunday. Heading into the late morning and afternoon hours will see the arrival of a expected system which will have the potential to produce another round of showers and thunderstorms. Currently northern TAF sites are the more likely locations to be impacted for thunderstorms with chances getting lower and lower as you head south. Timing of these storms is looking to be as early as 15Z with a more likely time of 18 to 23Z. Otherwise, linger showers may still hold beyond sunset but will be quick to break down during the night time hours of Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1023 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2026

Moderate southeasterly winds and elevated seas (4-6 ft) persist, so small craft should continue to exercise caution through at least Sunday night. Due to the elevated onshore flow, the increased risk of strong rip currents continues along Gulf-facing beaches through the weekend. Southeasterly winds weaken a bit going into early next week, but there may be intermittent periods where caution flags may be necessary. Another consequence of the persistent onshore flow are the slightly elevated high tides. P-ETSS guidance continues to reflect water levels reaching near 2.5-3.0 ft above MLLW during times of high tide throughout most of the work week. While coastal flooding is not a concern at this time, some wave run-up is certainly possible along Gulf-facing beaches. Daily chances for showers and storms will persist going into next week, but rain chances will generally be higher over inland locations.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 79 69 83 / 20 80 40 20 Houston (IAH) 70 81 71 84 / 20 60 20 20 Galveston (GLS) 72 77 72 78 / 20 30 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Sunday evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.