textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog, some locally dense are expected through early this morning. Drive with caution and be sure to slow down if you encounter fog.

- Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon and evening. Damaging winds and small hail are the main hazards, while a brief tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

- After a weak cold front passes, conditions will turn drier and warmer Monday and continuing into the rest of the week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Two main weather concerns exist in the short-term period: fog tonight and the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms later today. In the near term, the environment continues to be favorable for fog development, though confidence in how far inland it will spread remains moderate. Based on observations and short-term guidance, the highest chances will occur over the coastal counties, and portions east of the I-45 corridor. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for portions of coastal counties. It might be expanded further inland if conditions worsen before winds start to pick up.

The next concern will be increasing showers and thunderstorms ahead and along of a strong upper-level trough and its associated cold front. No significant changes have been made to the previous forecast package.

Per water vapor satellite imagery, the trough is currently spinning across the Desert Southwest, pushing a rich plume of Pacific moisture at mid to high levels of the atmosphere. At the surface, southerly winds continue to surge deep Gulf moisture into the region. In fact, 850mb moisture transport and theta-e advection have started to fill in across central TX late this evening. In addition, a broad area of isentropic ascent on the 295-300 K surfaces will enhance in the coming hours, resulting in increased rain chances as the day progresses. So, we'll likely see light to moderate showers starting overnight, but the real concern arrives late this afternoon into the evening hours when the cold front pushes a line of storms across the region.

Ahead of and near this boundary, latest HREF and RAP analysis show 0- 6km deep layer shear in the 45 to 60 kt range with MLCAPE values gradually increasing in the afternoon between 420 - 1000 J/kg. This would support the risk for hail with any initial, stronger updrafts. It is worth noting that, 0-3km helicity increases into the 250 to 350 m^2sec^-2 in the afternoon; therefore, isolated strong updrafts with some mesovortices are possible. As the boundary reaches our western counties (Brazos Valley area) by mid-late afternoon, orientation of shear vectors suggests some growth in the convective mode and with DCAPE values between 500-1000 J/kg, the primary threat will likely transition to more of a damaging wind threat. As mentioned before, a ribbon of low-level vorticity remains in place and near the boundary, so isolated tornadoes remain the secondary threat.

There are still a few features in place that could potentially impact the strength and progression of this squall line. If the sun comes out during the day, it will fuel the atmosphere, increasing the risk of strong to severe thunderstorms. However, if it stays cloudy and rainy, that could help weaken the storms before they reach us.

Overall, expect scattered to widespread showers with a few thunderstorms beginning to move across the region early today. By the afternoon, rain and storms will increase in intensity and coverage, with the greatest threat of severe weather arriving by mid- late afternoon from west to east. Excessive rainfall potential is minimal as the boundary seems to be progressive; however, pockets of heavy rain in thunderstorms may lead to minor flooding/ponding. Stay weather aware today, especially if you have outdoor plans and make sure to have a Plan B or delay your plans.

The front should be moving across the region by early evening and along the coast after 8 - 10 PM. Skies will become mostly clear from west to east late tonight; before some wraparound (low) clouds return by Sunday morning. Sunday will be slightly cooler under breezy northerly winds. High temperatures will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s and it will feel comfortable/less humid as dewpoints remain in the 50s.

Ridging aloft will build in early next week, resulting in drier conditions. With persistent southwest flow aloft, and 850 temperatures rising into the upper teens to low 20s degC by mid- week, above normal temperatures are expected. Continued with slightly warmer conditions as NBM guidance suggests...temperatures in the low to mid 80s by the end of the long-term period.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 457 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

A mixed bag of IFR, MVFR, VFR ceilings and visibilities this morning. By the late morning hours, ceilings will be predominantly in the MVFR range as coverage of rain showers gradually increases from west to east. Southeasterly to southerly winds will be on the gusty side through the afternoon with gusts up to 25-30 kt at times. Ceilings remain either near MVFR or borderline MVFR through the afternoon. Some isolated thunderstorms will be possible in the afternoon, but chances for thunderstorms increases in the late afternoon through the evening hours as a line of storms develops along a frontal boundary. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with the potential to bring strong wind gusts. The timing of these storms have been captured by the TEMPO groups.

In the wake of the front, there are some hints in the model guidance for a brief window of reduced ceilings and visibilities late tonight into early Sunday morning. There may be a brief lift to VFR for some locations followed by wraparound cloud cover bringing another period of MVFR clouds for northern terminals going into the mid-morning hours. Winds will initially be westerly behind the front and becoming northwesterly by Sunday morning.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1224 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Areas of dense fog will continue overnight and will persist into at least sunrise. Lowest visibility continue to be at Galveston Bay and nearshore waters from High Island to Freeport. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect. While the lowest visibility is expected over this region; cannot rule out reduced visibility as low as 2 - 3 NM near Matagorda Bay and the adjacent Gulf waters through early morning. Winds and seas will be increasing today ahead of the next disturbance and associated cold front. Expect increasing rain and storm chances from early this morning, with the highest probabilities late this afternoon and evening. Some strong to severe storms will be possible with brief heavy rain, damaging winds as the main threats. Small hail and waterspouts are also possible. Elevated winds and building seas up to 7 ft are also expected.Small Craft Advisory will likely be issued at some point this morning and will likely continue through late Sunday. Moderate to occasional offshore winds can be expected in the wake of the front on Sunday. Drier conditions and light onshore winds return early next week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 56 69 49 / 90 80 0 0 Houston (IAH) 75 60 73 53 / 80 90 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 69 60 69 57 / 50 80 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for TXZ200- 213-214-238-300-313-338-438-439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM CST early this morning for GMZ335- 355.