textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Bertha will remain weak as it pushes across area today, bringing scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and occasionally breezy conditions.

- The heat will build this weekend into next week, possibly warranting advisories by Sunday or Monday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Bertha continues to fall apart as it moves into southeast Texas. The center of circulation can be seen as a swirl on radar, moving across the TX/LA border. Disorganized shower/thunderstorm activity has been sheared well to the south and over the Gulf. A few thunderstorms have produced gales offshore. But aside from locally strong thunderstorm gusts offshore, the strongest winds are on the backside of the system, roughly 20-30 MPH with gusts 35-40 MPH. As the center pushes farther west, we suspect winds at the coast will increase from the south to southeast around 15-25 MPH with gusts up to around 30-35 MPH. MAYBE we can muster a stronger gust at the coast if deeper convection can erupt. But if the latest trends are of any indication, then our area is unlikely to receive much more than some scattered showers, isolated thunderstorms, and a general increase in the breeze.

Bertha will become a distant memory as a ridge amplifies this weekend into early next week across central and western CONUS. This will shift the focus back to the heat, with heat advisories possibly warranted again by Sunday or Monday. Given the continued deep, onshore flow in Bertha's wake, we cannot totally rule out a few stray showers on Friday. But by the weekend and beyond, the weather outlooks appears dry and hot. Afternoon temperatures are forecast to be in the mid/upper 90s over the weekend, with triple digit heat possible again for much of next week. With strong ridging aloft, we may be able to mix in lower dew points during the peak heating of the day. But peak afternoon heat index values could still approach 110F even if dew points drop into the upper 60s. Heat Stress (as a function of WBGT) is expected to reach the extreme category in urban areas by Monday, and could become extreme in many suburban and potentially rural areas by the middle of next week.

Hot times ahead y'all!

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 615 AM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

Primary aviation issue today will be increasing winds in association with approaching TS Bertha. Inland, speeds should gradually increase into the 13-20kt range as the day progresses with some gusts to around 30kt a possibility. Along the immediate coast and offshore they'll probably be about 10kt higher. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase this afternoon, with highest probabilities along and south of I-10...substantially lower as one goes further inland. As Bertha tracks westward and inland this evening, both rain chances and wind speeds should diminish. Forecast soundings do however show the potential for some MVFR ceilings across filling in across portions of the area. 47

MARINE

Issued at 102 PM CDT Thu Jul 23 2026

As Bertha pushes inland into Texas, winds on the backside of the system will increase from the SW to S, then from the SE. Winds this evening into tonight are expected to be 15-25 knots, with occasional gusts over 30 knots possible. IF thunderstorm activity can redevelop offshore, then there would be potential for locally higher winds. Seas are likely to build somewhat this evening and tonight, possibly exceeding 6 feet in some offshore areas.

As we go into Friday and beyond, the pattern will trend drier and hotter. Winds this weekend into early next week should be light to moderate from the S to SW. The heat could become intense, with Heat Advisories possible in our coastal communities by Sunday or Monday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 78 94 76 95 / 20 20 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 94 78 96 / 40 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 40 10 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ214-337-338-437>439.

Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176-177- 195>199-210>212-226-235-335.

High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CDT Friday for GMZ330-350.

Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ335-355-370-375.