textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hazardous marine conditions (winds/seas) are expected through Saturday, with elevated risk of rip currents and minor coastal flooding through the weekend.

- Lower humidities will remain in place through Saturday resulting in seasonable overnight lows but above normal daytime highs.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Hurricane Isaias continues to strengthen and track northward with landfall expected over the northern Gulf coast Friday night. The storm's impacts on the CWA are minimal, but we are seeing elevated winds and seas over the coastal waters, a high rip current risk, and minor fire weather concerns. These threats are detailed in the sections below.

Drier air spread across SE TX today around the periphery of Hurricane Isaias resulting in lower humidity values. Dewpoints at late evening are generally in the upper 50s to mid 60s inland with higher values along the coast. 00Z LCH sounding depicted a PW of 0.72 inches. This is around the 10th percentile in climatology for the date which is impressive dry air. Continued east to northeast flow in the low levels will keep dry air circulating into SE TX all the way through Sunday morning with PW values remaining less than an inch. All in all it will be pretty nice this weekend with mostly clear skies and seasonable overnight lows. Most inland areas will see min temps drop to the 60s, including the Houston suburbs. Afternoon highs, however, will remain above normal due to the dry air in place. East to northeast winds 5-15 mph Friday will decrease some Saturday.

Ridging aloft will develop beginning late this weekend and lasting through the middle of next week in response to a longwave trough developing over the Western states. Onshore surface winds will return Sunday and last through the middle of next week in response to surface troughing developing over the Southern Plains. This pattern change will unfortunately result in an increase in humidity levels, and the return of summerlike conditions to the area. PW values increase to around 2 inches by Monday/Tuesday. Expect to see a return of daily diurnal convective development this period. Min temps will climb to 10+ degrees above normal. The upper ridge and summerlike pattern are expected to remain in place most of next week.

Are there any hints of Fall weather on the horizon? The GFS and ECMWF ensemble means both continue the trend of longwave troughing gradually shifting over the eastern U.S. by next weekend which would favor a cold front making it to SE TX in the October 16-18 period, supported by a significant number of the ensemble members. This would likely be our next significant chance of precipitation as well. Certainly something to watch as we head through the coming week.

35/MM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 602 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Generally light NE winds and VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period. However, winds could be somewhat gusty times near the immediate coast this morning into the early afternoon. Could not rule out gusts close to 20 knots at GLS.

MARINE

Issued at 107 AM CDT Fri Oct 9 2026

Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the coastal waters through Friday evening. Winds are expected to peak Friday as Hurricane Isaias approaches the northern Gulf coast where it's expected to make landfall late Friday night. Seas will peak 5-7 feet nearshore, 7-9 feet and locally higher offshore Friday and Friday night as swells from Hurricane Isaias impact the waters. Seas will subside quickly Saturday and Saturday night as the storm moves inland and weakens. We will see a high risk rip currents through Saturday for the beaches. Tide levels are currently running around 2.5 feet above MLLW and are expected to peak at 3.0 to 3.5 above MLLW Friday before subsiding this weekend.

Light to moderate onshore flow will return Sunday and Monday with winds veering from the northeast to south and southeast as a surface high moves to the southeastern U.S. and low pressure develops over the Plains.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 92 65 92 66 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 91 69 91 70 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 87 76 84 78 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for TXZ436>439.

Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ438- 439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.