textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Tropical Depression Edouard will continue to move WNW through SE Texas today.

- The primary threat through tonight is heavy rainfall. A Flood Watch is in effect thru 7PM. Highest risk of heavy rain is generally north of I-10 and along and east of I-45. Any convective bands that do develop have the potential to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding.

- WPC has upgraded portions of the Piney Woods to a Moderate Risk (level 3 of 4) for excessive rainfall today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

The remnants of Edouard will continue to move WNW across SE Texas today (currently located in the eastern Piney Woods). Forecasting the rainfall has been on the tricky side, and the materialization of heavier rainfall has been delayed from initial forecasts.

Overnight, Edouard had a few convective bursts close to the core, as well as some developing convective bands further from the center. Overnight rainfall closer to the core has been estimated to be between 6-8" at the time of this AFD. With PWAT values around 2.2- 2.6" and decent instability, expect to see the trend of banding continue overnight.

Once we tap into daytime heating in addition to the moisture rich environment, we should continue to see convective banding through the day Wednesday. This may be further aided by the afternoon sea breeze. The majority of the rainfall is expected to remain north of I-10 and along and east of I-45. There is some uncertainty with Brazos and Madison Counties...if the depression moves more west- northwest, these locations could see a little more rainfall than what is forecast.

Current forecast has a swath of 6-8" rainfall totals in a SE-->NW orientation from Northern Liberty to Houston County through Thursday. Again, this will all depend on where the heaviest convective bands set up, and where any bands train...but current thoughts are that our eastern and northernmost counties will experience the most impacts from Edouard. Isolated higher amounts will be possible in those locations if forward motion slows and with any training storms.

Jumping back to the sea breeze...while most of the rainfall is expected to occur in the aforementioned locations, the sea breeze could trigger storms south of I-10 closer to the coast (especially since we are in a moisture-rich environment). Some of these storms could produce brief heavy downpours with localized instances of flooding (urban and low-lying areas and areas with poor drainage).

Moving through the rest of the week, the ridge of high pressure will build back in and we will see rain chances decrease significantly north of I-10. Closer to the coast, the combination of daytime heating, the sea breeze, and residual moisture will result in daily chances of diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms.

Heat and humidity will return by the end of the week as highs push back into the 90s and heat indices return to the triple digits. Cloud cover should keep us below Heat Advisory thresholds through the end of the week. Will need to monitor this weekend as indices creep towards Advisory levels.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 622 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Center of TD Edouard is situated across the Piney Woods and where the greatest concentration of precipitation will be consolidated today. That said, there we'll very likely see some continued feeder band development and expansion on its periphery across the region throughout the day...which is extremely difficult to pinpoint specific times and intensity at any individual airport terminal. As such, have largely broadbrushed the TAFs with the expectation of frequent amendments as necessary. Though mainly VFR conditions will prevail, keep in mind that deep tropical air remains in place...and the potential for heavy rain/some lightning/reduced vsbys & ceilings (probably MVFR) are entirely possible wherever these heavier bands do set up. Overall precip coverage will diminish with the loss of heating...with consolidated redevelopment likely closer to the remnant low ends up overnight (maybe CLL/UTS terminals northward). 47

MARINE

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Light southwesterly winds this morning will give way to light onshore flow this afternoon. Expect onshore flow to continue through the rest of the week with seas around 1-3 feet. Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated.

Bailey

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Polk County has received the majority of the rainfall overnight from Edouard. Current radar estimates show rainfall totals of 7-10" across the county. There is slow forward motion with TD Edouard, so expecting those totals to increase over the next few hours.

As Edouard continues to push NW, it is expected to produce a swath of rainfall amounts totaling 6-8" with isolated higher amounts possible over the next 48 hours. Rainfall rates will reach up to 3-4"/hour, leading to increased flash flood potential. The location of these higher amounts will be dependent on where the heaviest convective bands setup, if forward motion continues to be slow, and if any training occurs. Current thought is that the Piney Woods will receive the highest rainfall amounts.

Based on this current rainfall forecast, we anticipate widespread rises to action stage along area rivers with isolated minor to moderate river flooding possible especially where the heaviest rainfall sets up. The primary basins of concern include the San Jacinto and Trinity rivers. Potential impacts include flooding of streets and low-lying areas. If the higher totals materialize, more significant flood impacts may occur. Residents in these areas should monitor weather updates closely and be prepared to take necessary actions especially if traveling at night.

Bailey/Batiste

TROPICAL

Issued at 146 AM CDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Edouard has been downgraded to a Tropical Depression and all Tropical Storm Warnings have been canceled. The threat for heavy rainfall will continue today for areas north of I-10 and along and east of I-45 as remnants of Edouard continue to move across Southeast Texas.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 94 75 93 74 / 60 60 40 10 Houston (IAH) 93 78 93 77 / 60 30 50 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 50 10 30 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-196- 198>200-212>214-300-313.

Wind Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for TXZ163-164- 177>179-200-300.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335-355.