textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak heat index values between 103-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday. - High rip current risk along area beaches through Monday

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals an upper level trough moving across the Ohio Valley and another pushing east across the Northwest US. Upper level ridging can be seen in place over much of the southern US. At the surface, high pressure over the Gulf will help maintain a persistent southerly flow across the region. This will maintain warm and humid conditions over the next few days (more on that later). Not expecting much in the way of precip over the next few days as subsidence remains in place and an influx of drier air arrives through the day as plume of Saharan Dust moves inland. It remains to be seen if the SAL will have any impact on air quality Monday (this far west it often remains aloft) but skies will become hazier.

As we head into the work week, the upper level ridge axis will gradually shift north and east, opening the door for a few upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge. A plume of slightly deeper moisture will move off the Gulf by mid week. However, the axis of deeper moisture looks to remain to our east. With that said, we will see a slight uptick in rain chances, generally 20-40% during the afternoons from midweek through the weekend.

The main weather concern continues to be the warm and humid conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the mid 90s each day outside of the immediate coast. There won't be much relief at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Peak heat indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105- 107 degrees. A few sites may briefly hit 108-109 during the afternoon hours. This will pose a moderate to major (orange to red) heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk guidance hints as a low (~20%) chance for some locations to experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 530 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

ALl sites at VFR with conditions remaining VFR for most sites through around 08Z. Terminals north of I-45 are anticipated to experience MVFR CIGs during the early morning hours Monday. Confidence is low as to whether or not DWH/IAH will experience MVFR CIGs, but have mentioned the possibility briefly from approximately 11Z-14Z. Conditions return to VFR levels at all sites by mid morning. Winds through the period will generally be out of the southeast at 10-15 kts with gusts up to 20 kts through the evening hours. Winds overnight will be light out of the southeast. Monday afternoon winds are anticipated to increase to around 10-15 knots with gusts up to 20 knots.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1211 PM CDT Sun Jun 28 2026

Moderate to strong southerly winds and 3 to 6 foot seas will prevail through Monday. Winds will increase slightly overnight. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory is now in effect from 7 PM this evening through 7 AM Monday morning. Winds and seas will decrease slightly Tuesday into the mid-week period. There will be a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through at least Monday. Rain chances will remain very low through early next week, increasing to the low to medium range by mid/late week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 78 96 76 94 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 79 95 78 94 / 0 20 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 84 89 83 89 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Monday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.