textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot and dry conditions expected today and Sunday with isolated showers and storms in the afternoon hours.

- Moisture increases going into the work week leading to increased coverage of afternoon showers/storms and increasing humidity/heat indices.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Mid-level high pressure and ridge axis have shifted further eastward into Texas today leading to drier conditions. PW values for this afternoon are expected to be in the 1.5-1.7" range (25th percentile: ~1.41"). For perspective, PW values on Friday afternoon were in the 1.8-2.1" range...so we definitely have less moisture to work with. With the mid-level high now to our north (centered over the Red River), the flow aloft has transitioned from northeasterly to nearly due easterly. Since we'll still be on the periphery of the mid-level high, we'll remain in decent position for embedded shortwaves in the flow aloft. So, less moisture but we keep the lifting mechanisms (embedded shortwaves). That equation comes out to shower/storm chances remaining in the forecast, but with less coverage than the previous days. The best chances for showers/storms this weekend will be along the seabreeze in the afternoon hours, so highest PoPs generally along and south of I-10. This applies through at least Sunday, then moisture begins to increase going into the beginning of the work week...more on that in a little bit.

Hot and mostly dry conditions over the weekend with high temperatures mainly in the mid to upper 90s and heat indices in the 102-107F range. We'll see an ever so slightly downward trend in temperatures (by a couple of degrees) going into the early part of the work week as moisture begins to increase. This increase in moisture likely comes courtesy of a disorganized cluster of showers that's currently being monitored by the NHC (see Tropical discussion below for more details). Small spoiler: the probability it'll develop into anything is very low and even if it tries to develop it'd do so very slowly. The moisture from this though will bring PW values back closer to the 75th percentile (~1.96") especially east of I-45. Uncertainty still remains, but for now the highest rain chances associated with this will be generally east of I-45.

Beyond midweek, the mid-level high and ridge axis continues to transition eastward. The main theme of our forecast doesn't change though. Hot, humid, and daily chances of afternoon showers/storms. We'll need to monitor heat indices as well as they may approach the Heat Advisory threshold at times especially towards the end of the work week. Please continue to keep heat safety and thunderstorm safety in mind if you have any outdoor plans.

Batiste

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1233 PM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Primarily VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are light and variable, strengthening to 5-10 kts from the SE throughout the afternoon, then return to light and variable overnight around 02Z. Isolated showers are possible today for our southern sites between 19-00Z. Any rain we get this afternoon, along with the light overnight winds, could bring MVFR VIS to sites bordering I-10, with the main concerns being IAH and CXO. This BR is likely to dissipate after sunrise. Stagnant upper-level conditions suggest a repeated pattern for tomorrow's conditions.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

Benign marine conditions continue with light easterly winds today becoming southeasterly later this afternoon alongside 1-3 ft seas. Light onshore flow and low seas will prevail over the next several days. Isolated to scattered showers/storms will be possibly daily, but especially early next week as a disorganized area of convection approaches from the east. Strong winds and building seas are possible near storms.

Batiste

TROPICAL

Issued at 1137 AM CDT Sat Aug 29 2026

We are monitoring a disorganized cluster of showers/storms associated with a weak area of low pressure over the north central Gulf. The probability that this will slowly develop into anything is very low (10% over the next 7 days), but we will continue to monitor as it gradually drifts westward. It is too early to determine any specific impacts for our area. The most likely scenario is increased moisture in the northwestern Gulf in the early to middle part of the work week which would increase our chances for showers/storms.

Please continue to monitor the latest updates from the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 98 79 98 79 / 20 10 20 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 84 91 83 / 10 0 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.