textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Temperatures climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s through Friday, with increasing humidity. Fog likely during the night to early morning hours.

- The next system is forecast to pass through Southeast Texas late Friday through late Saturday. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely. Heavy rainfall and isolated storms will be possible.

- Conditions will turn drier and warm, with more comfortable humidity levels from Sunday into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

The weak front that stalled near the coastal locations yesterday will be slowly lifting north-northeastward today as a weak warm front. A mid to upper level ridge is building overhead and will help limit rain activity. However, the combination of slightly higher moisture amounts over areas south of I-10, small pockets of mid level vorticity and mid level weaknesses passing through, as well as the proximity of the front, may be enough to produce light showers this afternoon. Otherwise, expect periods of sunny to partly cloudy skies and warmer temperatures with highs peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s inland and the lower to mid 70s along the coasts. Tranquil and warm conditions will continue into Friday. Our overnight lows tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s areawide and the highs on Friday will be similar to today's.

Our next weather event will take place from late Friday into late Saturday (Valentine's Day). To start of, a mid to upper level trough currently over California will move eastward and into the Central/Southern Plains late Friday into early Saturday. As it does so, the mid to upper level ridge overhead will weaken during the nighttime hours and a low level jet will begin to develop over Southeast Texas as low level moisture increases. During this timeframe, we could see areas of showers and possibly isolated storms starting to develop from the west and northwest, which then gradually expands eastward as we approach sunrise time.

A surface low and associated cold front moving into North/Central Texas early Saturday morning will quickly progress eastward towards East/Southeast Texas during the day. Ahead of the front, instability and moisture convergence will ramp up (dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s), the low level jet will strengthen to 30-40 knots, and the upper jet will sink into the Texas coast. We will see showers and thunderstorms increasing during the morning hours, with numerous to widespread showers over Southeast Texas by the afternoon hours. Models continue to show the cold front moving through Southeast Texas rather quickly, arriving the Brazos Valley sometime in the late afternoon or evening period and exiting our eastern counties around midnight. Due to how dry the soils are and how fast the front progresses, significant flooding is not expected at this time. What we could see, however, is ponding of water along roadways and areas of poor drainage, especially with training showers. There is also a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon to evening...biggest concern is the potential for strong winds. SPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms over all of Southeast Texas on Saturday. If you have outdoor plans/surprises for Valentines Day, please continue to monitor the forecast updates and consider alternate plans if able.

Drier air will follow in behind the front Saturday night, although the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region could still see some moisture wrapping in from the surface low through Sunday. A push of drier air (possibly from a weak reinforcing dry front) filters into the area later on Sunday. Temperatures don't cool down significantly with this FROPA, but at least the drier air will make it feel much more comfortable. The highs on Sunday look to range in the upper 60s over the Piney Woods and the lower 70s elsewhere. Sunday night temperatures will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s north of I-10 and the lower 50s south of I-10.

Mostly dry conditions prevail during the first half of the upcoming week, along with a gradual warming trend. High temperatures are expected to bounce back into the upper 70s to lower 80s by Tuesday.

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AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 448 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Periods of fog will be the main story this morning and again this evening into Friday morning. Decreased visibilities this morning will remain generally closer to the coast (LBX, GLS, and intermittently HOU). Fog clears out by 15-16Z for most areas, but may linger around or just off the coast. As a result, there is potential for GLS to have intermittent periods of fog lasting into the afternoon hours. Winds will remain generally light throughout the day with southeasterly winds becoming predominant in the mid to late afternoon for areas near and south of I-10. Model guidance is in agreement on another round of fog and low ceilings this evening into Friday morning. This round is expected to be more widespread and extend further northward, so widespread IFR/LIFR conditions are likely as fog filters in from south to north.

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MARINE

Issued at 124 PM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Reports from vessel traffic service and satellite imagery indicate areas of fog affecting portions of the Gulf waters. A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the nearshore and offshore Gulf waters and is in effect through Friday morning. Dense fog is expected to expand over Galveston Bay and portions of Matagorda Bay later today and tonight, thus, the bays will likely be added to this Advisory as visibilities begin to reach Advisory criteria.

Winds and seas will be on an upward trend Friday in advance of the next weather system. Caution flags may be needed. Chance for showers and thunderstorms will increase late Friday into Saturday as a cold front moves through the region. Periods of heavy rain and strong gusty winds could accompany some of these storms. In the wake of the front, expect west winds on Saturday night and northwest winds on Sunday. Onshore flow returns early next week.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 79 60 80 62 / 0 0 0 20 Houston (IAH) 80 61 77 63 / 0 0 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 72 60 73 61 / 0 0 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST Friday for GMZ350-355-370-375.