textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays this week, most significant late Wednesday-Thursday.

- Two dry cold fronts are forecast to push through the area: one on Wednesday and another Friday.

- Brief warm up on Sunday before a third possible cold front Monday night/Tuesday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

A weak upper level low over central Texas this afternoon will continue eastward tonight, merging with a broader trough digging across much of the Central/Eastern Conus. We've already seen widespread light showers across the region on radar, indicating that PWs of 0.75-1.00 inches have been sufficient with the amount of lift provided by the low. Shower coverage is expected to peak this afternoon (right around now) as we get the full forcing from the passing upper level low. Activity then tapers off from west to east into overnight into Wednesday as the low exists the area. Anticipate another cold evening with lows for Wednesday morning in the 40s/lower 50s.

Wednesday kicks off with the aforementioned upper level low, now shortwave, east of the area, now embedded within the much stronger mid/upper trough spanning the Central/Eastern CONUS. This larger upper level feature is anticipated to push a weaker reinforcing front through SE Texas on Wednesday. Winds may briefly shift W/WSW early in the morning due to a prefrontal trough moving in from the north. The reinforcing front should lag behind it, entering the Brazos Valley during the late morning, then moving off the coast during the late afternoon. PWs will be fairly low, generally under 0.75", thus showers will be extremely sparse if any form to begin with. Breezy northerly winds and cooler temperatures should settle in behind the front. Daytime highs may top out in the 60s/lower 70s, but anticipate much cooler temps overnight with lows for Thursday morning in the 30s/40s. A light freeze could occur in many spots across the Piney Woods area near Crockett.

Thursday won't be a particularly active day as we find ourself post- cold front. Surface high pressure should pass over the region during the daytime with breezy northerly winds early in the day becoming light and variable, then later shifting southeasterly in the evening. Daytime highs will be fairly cool as onshore flow is (tentatively) set to occur after peak heating, with highs topping out in the 50s. After onshore flow is resumes, we'll see moisture slowly return overnight, which should help limit the full extent of cooling overnight. Lows for Friday morning will should be slightly warmer, though still in the 30s/40s across much of the area with some lower 50s along the coast.

Friday should see another mid/upper level trough dig through the Northern Mississippi River Valley/Great Lakes. This trough should send another cold front towards SE Texas, which should push into the Brazos Valley during the late afternoon and later off the coast some time around midnight. PWs by this point are forecasted to be around 0.5" or less. Rain chances will be very low with this frontal passage too, but there is still a chance that some light showers could develop along the coast as moisture pools. Highs during the daytime should top out in the 60s/lower 70s. Breezy and cooler air filters in overnight into the early morning hours with lows for Saturday morning ranging from the 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast. Could see lows touch the freezing mark across the northern edge of our CWA.

Saturday on the whole should feature benign, post-frontal weather as high pressure fills in over the region, causing winds to relax and shift northeasterly. Highs should reach the 50s/60s during the daytime. Clear skies aloft from high pressure and with northerly flow still in place, we should see some of the coolest temperatures overnight into Sunday morning with lows in the 30s/lower 40s inland and mid/upper 40s along the coast.

Sunday will see surface high pressure move off to the east into the Lower Mississippi River Valley, allowing onshore flow to return during the afternoon. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach the upper 50s/60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lowers for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the upper 30s/lower 50s.

Forecast certainty decrease heading into next week, but signs suggest that we'll see at least one more afternoon of warmer weather on Monday. Highs are anticipated to reach the the 60s/lower 70s during the daytime, with some isolated showers/storm chances possible during the daytime as PWs climb above 1.0 inch. Long range models suggest that another mid/upper level trough may dig across the Northern Plains/Great Lakes/Ohio Valley on Monday, sending another cold front into SE Texas. Timing is still up in the air, but anticipate the FROPA to occur some time Monday afternoon/evening or early Tuesday Morning.

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

VFR conditions will prevail with BKN to OVC mid and high level clouds passing through the region. There will be a chance of isolated, light showers developing during the afternoon hours today. Winds today will be southwesterly around 5-8kt, become variable overnight, and then return to southwesterly during the morning on Wednesday. A cold front will be passing through the region Wednesday afternoon ushering in a north-northwesterly wind shift.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1213 PM CST Tue Jan 13 2026

Mariners should remain mindful of negative tide levels through the week, especially around low tide cycles in the central and northern half of the the bays. Another cold front will push off the coast Wednesday afternoon, prompting Small Craft Advisories across all bays and waters. Low Water Advisories may be needed overnight into Thursday morning as water levels approach -1.0ft MLLW. High pressure passes over the area Thursday, causing winds and seas to decrease and shift southeasterly. Another cold front is slated to push off the coast late Friday night/early Saturday morning, bringing moderate northeasterly winds in it's wake.

03

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 44 67 36 58 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 47 69 40 58 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 54 68 44 57 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from noon Wednesday to 6 AM CST Thursday for GMZ350-355-370-375.