textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- A cold front will be passing through the area tonight with widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms developing ahead of and along the front. There is a marginal risk for a severe storm and/or heavy downpours - roughly a 5-15 percent chance.

- This front will bring gusty northerly winds across the area on Sunday. Small Craft Advisories are in effect for the Bays and coastal waters for these winds and elevated seas Sunday morning through Sunday night.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area - with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

The anticipated cold front is knocking on our door and is expected to pass through the area overnight. There is a line of showers and strong thunderstorms currently extending along a ling from B/CS through Lake Livingston that is producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall (radar indicated rain rates of 1-3" per hour). This line is slowly moving southwards, but is expected to pick up speed as the cold front catches up to it. Additional showers and thunderstorms are likely to form ahead of the cold front late tonight across the coastal areas and persist until the front moves through. FROPA timing from the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods region is between 11pm and Midnight, the I-10 corridor between 2-4am, and then off the coast by 4-6am. Like we are seeing currently across the Brazos Valley to Piney Woods region, some locally heavy rainfall is possible tonight across the area as the front moves through. Grounds are fairly dry, which will help alleviate flooding concerns, so minor flooding in areas of poor drainage will be the primary concern - however, cannot out rule an instance or two of flash flooding if heavy rainfall repeatedly moves over the same area. One area to watch tonight will be the Woodlands area as they received 1-2" of rain already from storms earlier today.

A north wind is expected through the day on Sunday with gusts to 20-25mph expected through sunset. With temperatures on climbing into the low to mid 50s and overcast skies expected, its going to be a fairly chilly day. Some isolated showers are possible along the coast through the morning due to lingering moisture. The mostly cloudy skies overnight will keep temperatures from dropping too far low Sunday night with minimum temperatures likely staying in the low to mid 40s across much of the region. A weak upper- level disturbance will slide across the area on Monday bringing additional chances of scattered showers (mostly light rainfall, but some embedded pockets of moderate rainfall cannot be ruled out). With temperatures only climbing into the upper 40s to mid 50s on Monday, this will be a pretty cold rain. A reinforcing cold front moves through late Monday ushering in even colder (and much drier) conditions. Overnight lows Monday night and Tuesday night will be in the 30s north of I-10 (with some spots in the Piney Woods dropping to near freezing), and low to mid 40s down to the coast. High temperatures on Tuesday will be similar to Monday, but add on a few degrees.

Wednesday will be warmer thanks to the return of south- southeasterly winds with highs temperatures in the low 60s to low 70s, and lows in the low 50s to low 60s. Another passing disturbance on Thursday will bring additional rain chances for the second half of the work week. Guidance is a bit uncertain on exact timing, but could see the return of some rain showers as early as Wednesday night with activity continuing through late Thursday or early Friday morning.

Fowler

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 532 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

Increasing moisture ahead of an approaching cold front has brought scattered showers and isolated, strong thunderstorms this evening. The main cluster of these strong thunderstorms are currently passing between IAH and CXO, and are expected to push eastwards through the rest of the evening hours. However, another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected later tonight as the cold front slides through the area. The thunderstorm activity is expected to pick up ahead of the cold front, and also a line of thunderstorms is expected to accompany the frontal passage itself. FROPA is expected to occur at CLL between 4-6z, at IAH between 6-9z, and then through GLS by 10-13z. Some light rain showers may also linger for a few hours behind the front, especially at the coast.

South to southeasterly winds around 7-12kt with occasional gusts to 20-25kt will continue ahead of the front. The cold front will usher in northerly winds of 12-17kt with gusts to 25kt (higher at the coast) that will continue through Sunday afternoon. Elevated winds around 10-15kt may persist into Sunday night, but the gusts will likely drop-off by sunset.

CIGs are expected to lower to MVFR conditions (1500-2500ft) ahead of the cold front's passage tonight with IFR conditions expected to occur with the FROPA and linger into Sunday morning with CIGs down to around 700ft. The IFR conditions are expected to linger along the I-10 corridor until around 18z with MVFR conditions persisting through the remainder of the day with CIGs around 2500ft. Areas at the coast may stay IFR all day long, but CLL/UTS may scatter out enough to bring VFR conditions by the afternoon. However, MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to return area-wide Sunday night into Monday morning along the scattered showers possible.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 942 PM CST Sat Nov 29 2025

A cold front is approaching the area from the north and will pass through the coastal waters late tonight into early Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop ahead of and along the cold front, with some isolated strong storms capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. The front is expected to pass through the Bays around 5-6am, the nearshore waters between 6-8am, and then through the offshore waters by the late morning. This front will usher in a strong northerly winds of 20-25kt with gusts to 30kt likely and to 35 kt possible. These winds will persist through Sunday night for the Bays, and into Monday morning for the coastal waters. A Small Craft Advisory is already in effect for the offshore waters due to lingering seas of near 7ft, and then the rest of the waters begin at 6am for the strong northerly winds behind the front. The SCA continues into Sunday night for the Bays, and through Monday morning for the coastal waters. However, this may need to be extended into Monday afternoon depending on lingering gusty winds.

Another disturbance is expected to bring widespread showers and storms Monday into Monday night with a reinforcing cold front pushing through the coastal waters Monday night. Additional Small Craft Advisories may be needed for moderate to strong north to northeasterly winds behind this front Monday night into Tuesday.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 43 50 41 49 / 80 10 30 60 Houston (IAH) 51 56 44 53 / 90 40 30 90 Galveston (GLS) 59 65 51 60 / 90 80 40 90

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to midnight CST Sunday night for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ370-375.