textproduct: Houston/Galveston

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

We will start to see the wet pattern transition to a slightly drier one as we kick off the work-week and mid-level ridging shifts southward. PWAT values for today will be around 1.8-2.1" (around the 75-90th percentile), so expecting to see convection take advantage of the lingering moisture this afternoon with help from the sea breeze. Showers and storms should have less coverage than the last few days, with most of the activity occurring along the coastal counties. Expect activity to decrease with the loss of daytime heating.

The aforementioned high pressure will continue to transition southward into Oklahoma Tuesday, building further into Southeast Texas. Consequently, moisture will decrease again slightly as subsident air becomes more prevalent. PWAT values will range from 1.7-2.0 (average to around 90th percentile). This subsident air will keep chances of showers and thunderstorms on the lower side. A few shallow showers and storms could form along the sea breeze during the afternoon.

Models continue to show moisture increasing again going into Wednesday as more tropical moisture filters into the area. PWAT values will climb back to around 2.2" (just above 90th percentile). Model soundings show a pretty saturated profile with light winds for Wednesday, so could see some of these showers and storms produce heavy rainfall. We will see this pattern of daily showers and storms continue through the end of the week as a mid- upper level disturbance moves across the NW Gulf and approaches SE Texas.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 516 AM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

A couple of showers have already begun to develop right along the coast early this morning. Coverage of showers/storms today will be less than what has been experienced over the past several days. The general trend will be for spotty showers along the coast this morning followed by isolated showers/storms developing near the coast along the seabreeze and pushing inland towards the I-10 corridor. Convective impact potential has been covered by PROB30s generally between the 17Z-00Z timeframe and has only been included for HOU/SGR and sites southward. Can't entirely rule out a stray shower/storm moving past I-10, but the potential is quite low. Outside of any convection, winds will be light and southeasterly then becoming light and variable after sunset. As we have seen over the past couple of nights, intermittent periods of patchy fog are possible during the overnight to early morning hours especially at CXO.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1123 PM CDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Light winds and seas of 2 feet or less are expected over the next several days. A drier airmass is expected over the next couple of days, which will result in less coverage for showers and thunderstorms. Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase towards the middle of the week and continue into the latter part of the week as tropical moisture returns and a mid-upper level disturbance moves through.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 93 76 95 76 / 20 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 94 79 95 79 / 20 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 91 83 91 82 / 20 10 30 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.