textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Dry air and gusty winds will enhance the potential for fire spread this afternoon, particularly in areas dominated by large amounts of lighter, typically grassy vegetation. A Red Flag Warning is in effect for areas west of I-45.

- Negative tide levels are are expected to persist through at least this weekend, causing continued navigation issues on area bays. Further complicating matters, strong winds building high seas behind the front will generate hazardous marine conditions, and a Small Craft Advisory is in place on coastal waters until early Sunday.

- Freeze warning has been issued for several coastal counties, as some will experience their first freeze of the season early Sunday morning. Chance for a brief, short-lived hard freeze over Houston/Madison counties as well.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle of next week as our pattern of quickly successive weather systems continues.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1217 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Cool, dry and post-frontal weather continues this afternoon as high pressure fills in across the Plains. Highs are still anticipated to reach the 50s/lower 60s this afternoon. Relative humidity will be particularly low this afternoon, ranging from around 30% near the coast to the lower teens inland. Winds across the area continue to remain elevated, generally around 5-15mph with gusts to 20mph inland and 25mph along the coast. Fuels remain slightly dry, generally across the western side of our CWA. Red Flag warning remains in effect until 8pm tonight to allow for winds to subside and RH to improve. Caution should be exercised when working with open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks, especially in drier locations. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Northerly flow will keep CAA in place tonight. Paired with clear skies overhead and the especially dry air across the area, this should allow for very effective cooling overnight. Lows for Sunday morning are anticipated to drop into the 20s/30s inland and lower 40s right along the coastline. Much of SE Texas should hit the freezing mark, outside of the inner Houston Metro and the waters/barrier islands, which are anticipated to stay a tad warmer. Few of our southern zones will experience their first freeze of the season, thus a Freeze Warning has been issued for early Sunday morning. Meanwhile, a few areas across our northern CWA, mainly Madison and Houston county, could briefly experience a hard freeze with temperatures as low as 22-24 degrees. However, these temperatures will be very short-lived, only for about an hour or less, thus I have opted against a freeze warning for a hard freeze in this area. Apparent temperature values will feel a tad cooler, generally in the 20s inland and mid/lower 30s in the Houston core/coast. Short of a cold weather advisory, but nonetheless chilly.

Along with these cold conditions, there is still a non-zero chance for some flurries and or brief (non accumulating) sleet to develop Saturday evening. Forecasted atmospheric conditions still show the potential to be there, that is if moisture lingers, upper level lift and lower level frontogenesis prove strong enough to briefly wring out some precip, which with evaporative cooling, could cool the lower levels and potentially produce a very short period of flurries. Chances are low & continue to lower with new guidance, no impacts are expected from it, but nonetheless it was worth mentioning, as we've seen similar occurrences happen before with other arctic fronts earlier this season.

Sunday will see surface high pressure pass over the area and move off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return that evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach the 50s/lower 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s.

This brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday as another upper level trough is expected to send yet another cold front into SE Texas. Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday afternoon/evening, stalling out somewhere over coast/Gulf waters early on Tuesday. Onshore flow is reestablished as a coastal trough- feature develops over the Gulf Tuesday night. PWs quickly rise to 0.1-1.8" on Wednesday as a shortwave trough moves in from the west. This will produce showers and thunderstorms across the area throughout Wednesday with another cold front pushing in behind the shortwave trough on Thursday. Guidance suggests that this front will stall over the coast, becoming a coastal trough and ushering in onshore flow again for Friday.

03

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 526 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Gusty north winds will gradually decrease this evening into tonight. However, winds are expected to remain elevated near the coast through early tomorrow morning. For Sunday, winds will generally be light, eventually shifting to a more southerly direction by either late afternoon or evening.

MARINE

Issued at 1217 PM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through the weekend. Some light precipitation could develop off the coast today, though chances are very low. Northerly winds of 15-25 knots with gusts of 25-30 knots continue in the wake of yesturday's cold front. The Small Craft Advisory should continue overnight with winds and seas diminishing early Sunday morning. Onshore winds return Sunday night. Next cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday with onshore winds returning as the boundary gradually lifts north into Wednesday. Expect more widespread rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday as another weather system pushes through.

03

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 105 AM CST Sat Jan 17 2026

After several days without rain from a lack of rainfall on recent frontal passages, more serious fire weather conditions may emerge on Saturday. A new surge of drier air, will bring relative humidity below 30 percent area-wide, even near the coasts. RH around or below 20 percent can be expected farther inland, dropping to around 15 percent in the driest spots. This surge of dry air is brought in by gusty north/northeast winds, creating a weather environment conducive to fire spread. While previous frontal passages have had similar conditions, they have benefited from fuel moistures around or above average. With this dry and gusty day, however, Texas A&M fuel moisture data indicates a drier fuelscape, with drier than average fuel moisture beginning to emerge.

Taken together, this will create elevated fire weather conditions for much of the area, particularly where lighter fuels less than an inch in diameter tend to dominate. In more forested areas with larger and heavier fuels, the dry and windy day will still elevate fire weather concerns, but lingering moisture in these larger types of vegetation should still provide some mitigation. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for the portion of our area around and west of the Brazos and Navasota rivers. This area will have not only the driest, windiest conditions, but also fuel environments that will respond more to these weather factors.

Beyond Saturday, we'll need to continue to monitor conditions into early next week, as humidity will not meaningfully return to the area until mid-week. Fortunately, the gusty winds should diminish by Sunday, providing a potential brake on how quickly the weather could push fire spread, even as dry conditions persist. Another front will also be passing through the area on Monday. Moderation will come towards the middle of the week, with the return of more humid air and meaningful rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 27 59 33 63 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 33 57 38 65 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 42 56 49 62 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CST this evening for TXZ176-195>198- 210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437.

Freeze Warning from 4 AM to 8 AM CST Sunday for TXZ235>238- 335>338.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350- 355-370-375.