textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Hot summer weather continues through the forecast period. - We'll need to monitor for potential isolated to scattered showers/storms near the coast and offshore in the Gulf today.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1200 AM CDT Sun Aug 2026

Our long awaited "cold" front is pushing through Texas, bringing much lower dew points / humidity in its wake. The front has been somewhat lagging, with the leading edge just reaching the northern fringe of our CWA as of the time of writing this AFD (~12AM CDT). The increasingly diffused front is expected to stall near the coast and could provide a focal region for convective development. Some of the CAMs suggest isolated to scattered activity will develop near the coast and offshore during the morning hours. So we'll be keeping a watchful eye on the radar just in case.

Dew points are forecast to drop well down into the 60s for most areas north of I-10 this afternoon. We may even see 50s dew points in the Brazos Valley. Meanwhile, coastal dew points are forecast to remain in the mid/upper 70s. Quite soupy for our beach friends. Inland afternoon temperatures are expected to be in the upper 90s, with low 90s at the coast. But the highest heat indices may actually occur at the coast (104-106) due to the higher humidity. With a potential lingering frontal boundary in place, I guess we cannot completely rule out an isolated shower or storm along the boundary this afternoon.

The low-levels look to remain dry on Monday, with a similar dew point regime as Sunday. Meanwhile, ridging aloft should strengthen, warming the overall temperature profile. Therefore, temperatures in many spots may be flirting with the 100 degree mark. Ridging aloft should increase as the week progresses while deep LL onshore flow becomes established thanks to the increasing influence of a sfc high well to our east. This combo should keep conditions hot and increasingly humid. Perhaps we can lower temps somewhat later in the week due to the potential for some increased cumulus as well as diurnally influenced isolated shower / thunderstorm activity. But we see no real relief from the heat. Tis August in SE TX.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 525 AM CDT Sun Aug 2 2026

Mainly a wind forecast, but the forecast gets a bit more complex closer to the coast where interactions with a frontal boundary looks to bring multiple wind shifts. For the northern terminals (IAH and northward), anticipating just light northerly winds and VFR conditions to prevail through the afternoon. Further south, winds start out light and westerly this morning then becoming northwesterly in the late morning. This will then be followed by a shift to southerly winds as the front retreats northward. There is ongoing scattered showers/storms near Matagorda Bay and offshore early this morning. While we can't entirely rule out a rogue shower along the coast throughout the day, the potential is too low to include any SH/TS mentions in this TAF package.

Winds become light and variable overnight into Monday morning. It's worth noting that with low-level moisture increasing overnight, there is at least some potential for reduced visibilities due to patchy fog for western areas early Monday morning. Uncertainty is a bit too high at the moment though to include any mentions of this in this TAF package.

Batiste

MARINE

Issued at 1127 PM CDT Sat Aug 1 2026

Gusty southwest winds will gradually decrease overnight into Sunday morning. A frontal boundary will approach from the north, stalling and becoming increasingly diffused near the coast. The front could help spark off a few showers and thunderstorms along the coast and over the open Gulf. Best chance of a heavier thunderstorm is offshore. Light west to southwest winds are expected Sunday into Monday, followed by light to moderate south winds Tuesday and Wednesday. Winds may become more southeasterly by the end of the week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 97 73 99 75 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 98 77 100 78 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 93 82 92 83 / 10 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ335.

Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ355.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning for GMZ375.