textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Locally heavy rainfall expected to today. Localized flooding likely. Have multiple ways to receive weather warnings today.

- Isolated strong thunderstorms capable of 40-45 MPH wind gusts possible.

- Rain chances fall and temperatures rise later this week and into next week. Seasonably hot and humid by Friday and the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

The feature with the most influence on the SE Texas atmosphere is an area of low pressure situated roughly over central Texas. The low is broad at the surface, perhaps more of a trough. But the low becomes more well defined with height, especially in the 950 to 500 MB level. The low is advecting deep tropical moisture from the Gulf, while also helping to provide lift and some added instability. This is resulting in another day featuring rounds of showers and thunderstorms, some of which have been heavy. The strongest LL jet associated with the low remains to our west. However, we couldn't rule out enough wind shear for a strong thunderstorm or two.

The pattern will be in flux after today. The aforementioned low will pull away and wane in influence starting tomorrow. In addition, mid/upper heights will gradually build, as ridging becomes the dominant force in the synoptic pattern. Thus, expect decreasing shower/thunderstorm coverage and increasing temperatures beyond today. I suspect we will have some isolated to scattered shower/thunderstorm activity on Thursday (especially in our western zones). But by Friday and the weekend, rain chances become quite low. Many inland spots may be reaching the mid-90s (seasonal) by the weekend, and the upper-90s (near or a tad above normal) by early/mid next week.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 639 PM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Rain chances will continue to decrease late this evening and winds will relax to 5 KTS or less tonight. MVFR cigs are possible over sites north of I-10 during the overnight to early morning hours, along with areas of patchy fog. Fog, if any, will burn off around 14-15Z. Cigs will gradually rise during the morning hours, but may remain overcast (mostly VFR) for much of the day. Iso-sct showers and iso thunderstorms can be expected throughout the day, mainly for sites north of IAH. Winds will be generally S-SE at 5-10 KTS Thu, relaxing to 5 KTS or less by the early night hours. MVFR cigs are possible again late Thu night into early Fri morning.

Cotto/Wingo

MARINE

Issued at 1042 AM CDT Wed Jul 15 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected today. Locally strong thunderstorms capable of 35-40 knot winds, waterspouts, and locally higher seas cannot be ruled out. Beyond today, the pattern becomes gradually drier and hotter. Winds through the weekend expected to be southeast 10-15 knots. Could have a few higher non-thunderstorm gusts over 20 kts overnight tonight and into tomorrow morning, especially for areas in the vicinity and offshore of Matagorda. Could see a similar set up Thursday night into Friday morning as well. Winds become more south, possibly southwest at times, early next week. Seas should generally be 2-4 feet. Seas well offshore could approach 5 feet at times, especially Thursday night into early Friday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 72 88 74 90 / 20 40 20 20 Houston (IAH) 74 91 78 93 / 20 20 10 30 Galveston (GLS) 82 90 85 90 / 20 20 20 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.