textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered showers and thunderstorms today. Locally heavy downpours likely. Isolated stronger storm possible.

- Pattern expected to trend drier and hotter this week, especially beyond Tuesday.

- Some uncertainty regarding how long the drier pattern holds.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

A plume of deep tropical moisture is pushing into SE Texas today. The plume contains 2.0-2.5 inch PWATs. Within the envelope of deep moisture is a weak mid/upper disturbance, helping to enhance lift over the middle and upper Texas Coast. Radar has shown scattered shower/thunderstorm activity pushing northward from the Gulf and into SE Texas this morning, bringing locally heavy downpours as well as a few locally higher gusts over 30 MPH. Storms have thus far moved fast enough to mitigate the flood risk. But we cannot rule out a slower storm and/or training of storms at some point today. So we'll have to monitor the radar closely for potential localized flooding, especially considering the amount of PWAT available. We also cannot rule out an isolated stronger thunderstorm or two during peak daytime heating this afternoon. The best chance of locally heavy rain and thunderstorms will be across our southern and coastal counties. That being said, guidance has generally underestimated shower/thunderstorm potential across our northern and inland-most zones over the last few days. So a few heavier showers or thunderstorms in Piney Woods and Brazos Valley are on the table.

Beyond today, the pattern becomes drier and hotter as ridging takes hold. I doubt we can suppress the atmosphere enough to prevent isolated to widely scattered seabreeze activity on Tuesday, thus the low PoPs some of you see in your location specific forecast tomorrow. But the dry and seasonably hot/humid forecast remains in place for the second half of the week. The one caveat may be the eastward progression of the upper ridge, which eventually results in very deep onshore flow that extends well into the mid levels (up to 500 MB). This suggests the atmosphere could become increasingly moisture rich as we approach the end of the week. In addition, global guidance is showing a ML disturbance that pushes into NE Mexico / S TX towards the end of the week. A slight northward nudge in the system's trajectory coupled with the increasing deep LL/ML flow from the Gulf could easily change a dry forecast into a wetter one. Something to keep in mind.

Self

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1154 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Scattered shra/tstms across the southern 2 tiers of counties closer to the coast late this morning. Brief heavy downpours and short lived MVFR cigs/vis look to be the primary issue with these cells for the next 2-3 hours. While overall coverage diminishes at the metro airports after about 20z, outflows could generate some additional daytime activity further north. Fast moving NNE outflow/precip south of the Matagorda Bay area could possibly make it toward the LBX area, so that'll be worth keeping an eye on. Otherwise, all activity should diminish this evening with the loss of heating with mainly VFR conditions prevailing overnight. Though guidance indicates mainly dry conditions on Tuesday, wouldn't be surprised to see some isolated seabreeze activity. 47

MARINE

Issued at 1055 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Shower and thunderstorm activity should continue into the early afternoon before decreasing in coverage later today. Isolated stronger thunderstorms capable of 30-35 knot gusts are possible. An isolated shower or storm will be possible over the Gulf and near the coast Tuesday morning, as well as along the seabreeze boundary later Tuesday morning into the afternoon. Otherwise, the pattern is expected to turn drier during the second half of the week. Winds through Tuesday should be light to moderate from the south to southeast w/ 1-3 ft seas. By the second half of the week, south to southeast winds and seas are expected to increase as a ridge builds to our east. By Thursday and Friday, sustained winds could approach 20 knots in some areas. Seas well offshore could approach 5 feet.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 76 96 76 98 / 10 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 96 79 97 / 10 20 0 10 Galveston (GLS) 83 90 83 90 / 20 20 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.