textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Chances for strong to severe storms this afternoon through early Sunday morning along with the potential for localized street flooding.

- Sea fog will remain an intermittent issue near the southern Galveston Bay area and adjacent Gulf waters for the next several days.

- Another round of strong storms possible Tuesday night into Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

More record high temperatures were set (tied at Houston/Bush Airport, Palacios, and Galveston) on Friday as we continue in this stretch of well above normal temperatures. We'll likely see some record high minimum temperatures be set as well as low temperatures remain in the upper 60s/low 70s, which is actually what our normal high temperatures are for this time of the year. One difference compared to the previous nights is that sea fog hasn't been a significant issue so far (knock on wood) through the afternoon due to elevated southeasterly winds. Over the past couple of hours, visibilities have decreased in the southern part of Galveston Bay though. Sea fog will be an intermittent issue through early next week, but periods of elevated winds and warming water temperatures could play a role in limiting its extent.

Yesterday's CAMs panned out fairly well with Friday's activity being limited to scattered nonsense (showers), but there are a few differences in tonight's CAMs in depicting how Saturday will unfold. The synoptic setup remains the same with a cold front currently overtaking a dry line out in west TX as it pushes its way eastward. This push is from an upper level trough that will split during the overnight hours with the northern half continuing northeastward towards the Great Lakes region and a cutoff low moving southwestward towards the Baja Peninsula where it'll remain going into early next week (stick a pin in this for later). The front begins pushing into Southeast TX on Saturday afternoon, but doesn't have the forcing to push it all the way through. As a result, the front is expected to stall...and the latest consensus still has this occuring along the coastal counties. This is important to note as wherever this front stalls will be the main area of focus for heavy rainfall.

PW values are currently in the 1.4-1.6" range (90th percentile: ~1.39"), and these values will further surge going into the afternoon and evening as the frontal boundary pushes into the area. Showers and storms ahead of and along the frontal boundary will have the potential to become strong to severe with the storm mode being initially discrete cells before things congeal into becoming more linear going into the evening. Strong winds and large hail are the primary severe hazards. Most of Southeast TX remains outlined in a slight risk (level 2 of 5) for Saturday afternoon thru the night as a result. With PW values being well above the climatological mean, heavy rainfall will be another hazard (see the HYDROLOGY discussion below for additional details on high rainfall rates combining with dried soils from the ongoing drought).

As previously mentioned, the highest rainfall totals are expected to occur where the frontal boundary stalls. The latest HRRR and REFS PMM depict widespread 0.5-1.5" totals with the potential for isolated amounts of greater than 4". Both of these depict this occuring closer to the coast where model consensus currently has the front stalling out at. The general setup is discrete showers/storms in the afternoon ahead of the front, storms become linear in the evening as they make their way towards the I-10 corridor, then the potential for training storms (storms moving over the same area repeatedly) comes Saturday night. Rainfall rates of 2-3" per hour are possible, so extended periods of these rainfall rates could lead to instances of street flooding. As a result, most of Southeast TX is in a slight risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive rainfall for Saturday.

Rain chances stick around into Sunday morning, but will be on the decrease going into the afternoon. Going into the middle of next week, the previously mentioned upper level low will make its way eastward through the state leading to another round of showers and storms ahead of and along the associated frontal boundary. This looks to generally be in the late Tuesday to Wednesday timeframe. We'll continue to monitor trends as there is potential for another round of heavy rain and strong to severe storms. SPC already has areas generally north of I-10 outlined in a 15% probability for severe weather on Wednesday. With Spring Break being next week for most of you, don't turn a blind eye to the forecast. Stay up to date on the latest information and stay weather prepared.

Once the upper level low and the associated front push past us, model guidance continues to trend towards more seasonal temperatures...so we have that to look forward to!

Batiste

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 527 AM CST Sat Mar 7 2026

Main aviation concern today will be the increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight/Sunday morning as a cold front slowly moves through the area. Isolated strong to severe storm, capable of producing large hail, strong wind gusts, and locally heavy rainfall will be possible for storms ahead of and along the front. Scattered shower and thunderstorms activity will begin across the CLL area as early as the late morning/early afternoon, then increase in coverage down through the coast through the afternoon/evening. FROPA timing will be difficult to pin down due to how slow the front is moving, but it may occur at CLL around 20-23z, IAH around 4-8z, and then likely stall between there and the coast through the remainder of the night into Sunday morning. Breezy southerly winds will continue today ahead of the front, then become variable with the FROPA (and near any TS). There may be a period of northwesterly winds for area north of I-10 where the front moves past, but areas along the coast may remain variable through Sunday morning before southerly winds return by Sunday evening.

MVFR CIGs around 1500ft will prevail through the mid-morning, then VFR conditions prevail for the afternoon and evening with BKN clouds around 5000ft for most areas except GLS where MVFR CIGs may linger through the entire day. Expecting a return to MVFR conditions this evening with the frontal passage with potential down to IFR (around 700ft) tonight into Sunday morning.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The potential for intermittent periods of sea fog will continue through the weekend and into early next week. Elevated southeasterly winds this evening kept the fog away through the afternoon, but later in the evening visibilities began to gradually decrease in the southern part of Galveston Bay and the adjacent coastal waters. Can't rule out a Dense Fog Advisory being issued overnight. Showers/storms on Saturday night may briefly inhibit fog development, but sea fog will be an intermittent issue until a front pushes offshore on Wednesday.

Outside of the fog, an elongated fetch of light to moderate southeasterly winds will continue through the weekend alongside 3-5 ft seas. Winds/seas may briefly approach the caution flag threshold at times. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return over the weekend and around the middle of next week. Some storms could produce locally stronger wind gusts especially Saturday evening/night. The next round of storms looks to be Tuesday night into Wednesday, and there's potential for some stronger wind gusts as these storms push through as well.

Spring Break begins for much of the area this weekend. Just a gentle reminder that there are almost always rip currents at the beach. Swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties, and piers where rip currents are typically strongest. Also avoid swimming on the eastern/western tips of Galveston Island. (47)

Batiste

HYDROLOGY

Issued at 1150 PM CST Fri Mar 6 2026

The latest model guidance is pointing towards the frontal boundary stalling out along the coastal counties, so this is where the bulk of the rainfall would occur if this pans out. Some high-resolution guidance is depicting isolated rainfall totals of 4+" as storms train along the frontal boundary Saturday night into early Sunday morning. As you all are aware, the vast majority of us have not seen notable rain since February 14th which is coming up on 3 weeks ago. ~90% of the region is in a severe to extreme drought...~26% of the region is in an extreme drought (mostly west of the Brazos River and Liberty County).

The rainfall is expected to be heavy at times, which could pose an issue with high rainfall rates occuring over dry, compacted soils. When soils get too dry, they aren't able to absorb rainfall as efficiently leading to a quicker transition to runoff. Rainfall rates of ~2-3" per hour combined with these dry soils could lead to instances of street flooding, so we'll be monitoring where these heavier rains fall which currently looks to be along the coast on Saturday night. We're also continuing to monitor downstream flows from Wednesday's heavy rain event near Dallas in which most of the rainfall fell into the Trinity River basin. From what we've seen so far though, Lake Livingston will be able to manage this inflow. Another round of heavy rain is expected around the middle of next week as well.

As far as rivers go, action to minor stage flooding especially along the Trinity River basin is on the table.

Batiste

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 84 59 72 63 / 80 70 50 20 Houston (IAH) 85 68 77 69 / 80 80 80 10 Galveston (GLS) 76 66 74 68 / 60 70 70 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ335-355.