textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Colder and breezy conditions are occurring today in the wake of an overnight cold front. On the waters, Small Craft Advisories are in effect for all coastal waters through this evening, and on coastal Gulf waters until the morning.

- Chilly weather is in store for the first half of the week with overnight lows dropping into the 30s and 40s across the area - with some spots in the Piney Woods possibly dropping to freezing Monday night.

- There will be additional rain chances through the week: Monday into Monday night, and Wednesday night through Thursday night or Friday morning.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Cold temperatures expected tonight...however, overcast skies will keep it from being the coldest night of the week...those nights are up next! Lows for tonight into Monday morning will be in the 40s for much of the area, with a few locations along the coast touching into the low 50s.

For Monday, 500mb showing a series of vort maximums traversing SE Texas during the day, with a shortwave at the 700mb level, and onshore flow at the 850mb level continuing to funnel in Gulf moisture. Along with isentropic lifting, this setup will factor into the potential for showers and thunderstorms during the day tomorrow. Showers will start out light overnight. Coverage of showers will increase during the day tomorrow with the approach of the shortwave from the west. Rain is anticipated to move offshore later Monday night into early Tuesday morning as a reinforcing front brings in a cooler and drier airmass.

Temperature wise Monday into Tuesday...consensus among my shift partner and I is that model guidance is coming in a bit too warm for this setup. Opted for a blend of previous forecast, CONSShort, and NBM10. Probabilistically speaking, HREF and NBM had a low (23-30%) chance of areas south of I-10 surpassing the 55F mark tomorrow (areas close to I-10 and north were at a 0% probability). With cloudy skies and rain expected for tomorrow, I would not be surprised if temperatures turned out to be even a few degrees cooler than what is forecast. Tuesday may be a bit more true to the story with skies expected to clear out significantly and sun able to contribute to the daytime highs.

Monday night and Tuesday night will be pretty brisk with temperatures dropping into the low 30s to low 40s. The chance for freezing temperatures increases further north across portions of the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods.

Onshore winds resume Tuesday night and begin another round of warming for the area...and as observed for the last couple of weeks, the return of onshore flow will set the stage for yet another chance for showers and thunderstorms later in the week. Will refrain from getting too hung up on details with it being later in the period, but in any case, looking like another wet weekend for at least the coastal areas.

Bailey

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 539 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Widespread MVFR conditions this evening are expected to trend IFR as cigs drop overnight. Isolated to scattered SHRA activity is expected to develop during the 07-09Z time frame, with more widespread steadier RA occurring after 12Z. We could not rule out a rumble of thunder. But any TSRA should be isolated, and not common enough to warrant mention in the TAF. As the steady RA settles in, vis is expected to average MVFR while cigs likely stay in the IFR to lower end MVFR range through much of the rest of the day. Could not rule out areas of LIFR tomorrow. Winds are expected to remain NE and will be occasionally gusty.

MARINE

Issued at 1036 PM CST Sun Nov 30 2025

Gusty north to northeast are in place over the coastal waters following yesterday's frontal passage. Small Craft Advisories are in effect. Another upper level disturbance will move through overnight and Monday bringing another round of rain and embedded thunderstorms. Additional Small Craft Advisories are possible Monday night into Tuesday morning as moderate to strong northeasterly winds develop behind this exiting system.

At the coast, gusty offshore winds will likely result in some negative tides for the next 2-3 low tide cycles for area ship channels. For now, however, the winds do not look to push water levels far enough below MLLW to reach thresholds for a low water advisory.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 41 46 36 52 / 40 50 20 0 Houston (IAH) 44 49 39 54 / 50 90 50 0 Galveston (GLS) 50 57 47 55 / 60 90 70 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk until midnight CST tonight for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM CST Monday for GMZ350-355-370- 375.