textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Red Flag Warning in effect for areas west of I-45 on Saturday.

- Negative tide levels are are expected through at least the weekend, being reinforced after Tonight's cold front.

- Very remote chance of some brief sleet and/or flurries on Saturday night. This will be followed later in the night by a light freeze from the northern and west fringes of the Houston metro northward.

- Our next good chance for rainfall will come towards the middle of next week from a coastal trough and shortwave moving through the area.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Another mid/upper level trough digging through the North-Central Plains/Mississippi River Valley is in the process of sending another cold front our way. This front will enter the Brazos Valley soon this afternoon then push off the coast in the evening. PWs will still be low, forecasted to be under 1.0" inland, though near the coast and over the Gulf waters, PWs do climb up just slightly above 1.0 inch. CAMs are now showing a thin, broken line of light showers along the front this evening as it moves over the coastal counties with coverage increasing as it moves off the coast. Due to the FROPA, highs should top out in the mid 60s/mid 70s. Breezy and cooler conditions fill in overnight with lows for Saturday morning ranging from the mid 30s/40s to possibly lower 50s at the coast.

Saturday will feature multiple notable weather phenomena to keep track off. For most people, the day will start off feeling like a typical, post-frontal day as high pressure fills in across the Plains. Highs are still anticipated to reach the 50s/lower 60s with dry and gusty conditions during the afternoon. However, relative humidity is forecasted to drop to 15-30 percent. Winds are also expected to remain fairly elevated during the daytime, ranging from 10-15mph with gusts up to 25mph inland (20mph gusting 30mph along the coast). Fuels are also fairly dry, below the 25th percentile in many spots for both the 10hr and 100hr fuels, generally in the western side of our CWA. With the driest conditions and strongest winds & gusts anticipated in this area, expect elevated to critical fire weather conditions Saturday afternoon. A Red Flag warning will be in effect on Saturday. Caution should be exercised when working with open flames or operating equipment that can cause sparks, especially in drier locations. Outdoor burning is not recommended.

Heading into Saturday evening, CAMS show much drier conditions compared to global models with only sparse rain chances off the coast during the night. NBM, HREF and REFS all show zero or nearly zero probabilities for freezing precipitation over SE Texas during the night. Still, there will be robust upper level forcing in place from the passing elongated trough, coinciding with lower level frontogenesis being depicted in higher resolution models. The atmosphere during the evening of Saturday is still characterized by largely dry conditions, both in the DGZ and below it. Still, wet bulb traces fall below the freezing mark, so if we do manage to squeeze out any precipitation from lingering moisture, it may be able to cool the air below it and possibly produce a brief period of sleet/flurries. Even if we manage to get some sleet/flurries, it shouldn't accumulate and thus it is unlikely that we'll see any major impacts from this. If anything, the cold weather should be a bigger concern for the overnight period into Sunday. Lows are currently forecasted in the 20s/30s for Sunday morning with lower 40s along the coast. Wind speeds are mostly light, though some slightly stronger winds closer to the coast should make the wind chill feel below freezing in many spots.

Sunday will see surface high pressure pass over the area and move off to the east, allowing onshore flow to return that evening. This will usher in WAA and bring gradually warming temperatures and increasing moisture into next week. Highs for Sunday should reach the 50s/lower 60s during the daytime. Overnight temperatures will be slightly warmer, but still cool with lows for Monday morning anticipated to bottom out in the 30s/upper 40s inland and lower 50s right along the coast.

This brief warm-up will come to a quick end on Monday as another upper level trough is expected to send yet another cold front into SE Texas. Current timing has it reaching SE Texas Monday afternoon/evening, stalling out somewhere over coast/Gulf waters early on Tuesday. Onshore flow is reestablished as a coastal trough- feature develops over the Gulf Tuesday night. PWs quickly rise to 0.1-1.8" on Wednesday as shortwave trough fills in from the west. This will produce showers and thunderstorms across the area throughout Wednesday with another cold front pushing in behind the trough on Thursday.

03

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 553 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

VFR conditions prevailing through the period. Winds will increase from the SW ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Winds should remain in the 10-15 kt range with gusts to 20-25 kts (GLS may gust closer to 30 kts). Winds will shift out of the N as the front makes its way through the area tonight.

Bailey

MARINE

Issued at 1235 PM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

Low Water Advisory remains in effect for both bays through the end of the week. While waters levels may improve to some degree at high tide, negative tides to -1.0 ft (MLLW) or lower will be possible at low tide each day, especially Saturday morning behind the next cold front. This cold front should push through the bays and off the coast around 8-10pm tonight. Northerly winds of 20-30 knots with gusts of 30-35 knots will develop behind the front, prompting Small Craft Advisories all through Saturday into early Sunday morning. There is a chance of some light precipitation off the coast on Saturday. Onshore winds return Sunday night. Next cold front will stall out around the coast early on Tuesday.

03

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1243 AM CST Fri Jan 16 2026

With the passage of recent dry cold fronts, fire weather conditions have been mitigated by fuel moisture near or above average levels, counteracting the dry and breezy post-frontal conditions. However, with each dry front, fuels grow drier from the lack of rainfall and return of meaningful, sustained humidity.

More serious fire weather conditions may emerge after Friday's cold front, as relative humidity below 30 percent, and even below 20 percent in the driest spots will coincide with gusty north/northeast winds on Saturday afternoon. In addition, Texas A&M fuel moisture data indicates a drier fuelscape, driven by what appears to be 100 hour fuel moistures reaching an inflection point of dryness after several days without rain. Taken together, elevated fire weather conditions for much of the area are very likely, with the potential for near-critical to critical conditions. The best potential for critical fire weather conditions look to be in the Matagorda Bay area northward, where the driest, windiest conditions are expected, along with fuel beds that tend to be fine, grassy fuels and more responsive to drops in relative humidity. A major mitigating factor in this situation is that the post-frontal airmass is also colder, with Saturday highs in the area only reaching into the lower to middle 50s.

Beyond Saturday, we'll need to continue to monitor conditions into early next week, as moisture return will again be weak, keeping conditions dry through another front passing through Monday. Moderation will come towards the middle of the week, with the return of more humid air and meaningful rain chances.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 38 55 28 60 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 45 56 34 59 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 51 58 43 57 / 20 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Red Flag Warning from 9 AM to 8 PM CST Saturday for TXZ176- 195>198-210>212-226-227-235>237-335>337-436-437.

GM...Low Water Advisory until 6 PM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 7 AM CST Sunday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.