textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Warm, largely quiet weather today.

- Weak cold front pushes towards the region Wednesday afternoon and should initiate some scattered showers and thunderstorms. A few could be strong to severe north of I-10.

- Scattered showers and storms daily Thursday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

Expect warm and benign weather to continue today. Lows in the morning will be pretty warm, only dropping into the mid 60s/lower 70s with cloudy skies overhead. Cloud cover scatters out in the late afternoon with highs forecasted to reach the upper 70s/upper 80s. Weak impulses passing aloft could bring a stray shower or two, but otherwise rain chances will be sparse.

A period of more active weather is still set for Wednesday as a mid/upper trough sweeps across the Rockies/Plains, sending a cold front towards SE Texas. Deep moisture will be present with PWs reaching 1.7-2.0. Decent shear and instability for some stronger storms will be present, though the environment will be slightly capped. With afternoon heating, this cap should weaken to some extent. The full extent to which that cap erodes varies by model, though by in large capping looks to be weaker across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area. CAMs are still bear on convection for Wednesday, only showing light showers throughout much of the area with the latest suite of guidance. Storms are more likely to develop along the cold front, though timing is still fairly uncertain, with models generally trending slower. SPC maintains a Slight (level 2/5) Risk of severe weather over SE Texas on Wednesday, mainly for areas north of I-10.

The aforementioned cold front should push be off the coast by late Thursday morning, allowing cooler and breezy wx to briefly develop in it's wake. However, lingering moisture and a series of impulses from an approaching shortwave trough/low over the desert southwest will maintain rain chances throughout Thursday. Onshore winds should return on Friday, facilitating WAA and additional moisture return. This will maintain rain chances through the weekend into early next week.

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AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 614 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

VFR conditions are expected this evening along with S-SE winds at 10-15 KTS with gusts up to around 20 KTS. Winds will be around 10 KTS during the overnight hours. MVFR cigs are expected to develop tonight into Tue morning. There is a chance some locations could even lower to IFR. By around 15Z, winds will strengthen again to 10-15 KTS with gusts of 20-25 KTS. Cigs are expected to slowly lift during the day, possibly scattering in the late afternoon to evening period. However, there is a chance some locations could see BKN decks for much of the daytime period.

Cotto

MARINE

Issued at 1107 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026

South to southeast winds of 15 to 20 knots will prevail through mid week, prompting caution flags at times. Showers and storms are expected on Wednesday as the next cold front pushes through with some stronger storms possible. The front should push off the coast some time between Wednesday night and late Thursday morning. Anticipate moderate north to northeast winds on Thursday behind the front. Onshore winds quickly return by Friday with rain chances continuing into the weekend.

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PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 82 69 87 73 / 0 0 0 10 Houston (IAH) 84 70 86 75 / 0 10 10 10 Galveston (GLS) 79 73 81 76 / 0 10 10 10

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 8 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.