textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- There will be a moderate to major heat risk daily through early next week. Peak heat index values between 102-107F (39-42C) through Tuesday. - High rip current risk along area beaches through the weekend.

- Low to moderate rain chances return towards the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Water vapor imagery late this morning reveals a stout upper trough across the Desert Southwest and a shortwave over the Ohio Valley. Upper level ridging in place aloft will keep us mostly dry over the next few days. Latest CAMs are hinting at some very isolated activity tomorrow, generally along the sea-breeze. However, not too confident in this outcome as we will see increased subsidence and an influx of some drier air from a plume of Saharan Dust that will arrive through the weekend. Rain chances increase into the 20-40% range by the middle of next week as the ridge lifts northeast, opening the door for a few upper level impulses to rotate around the southern periphery of the ridge.

The main concern continues to be the warm and humid conditions across the region. High temps will warm into the low to mid 90s. There won't be much relief at night as lows only fall into the mid 70s to low 80s. Heat indices should remain just below advisory criteria, generally 105-107 degrees. This will pose a moderate to major heat risk across southeast Texas. The latest probabilistic heat risk guidance hints as a low (10-15%) chance for some locations to experience an extreme heat risk daily through the middle of next week.

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 610 AM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Patchy MVFR ceilings exist this morning, mainly in the vicinity of CLL, with more spotty instances further south and east. These will mix out or lift to VFR by mid-morning. Another round of MVFR ceilings is possible during the early morning hours Sunday with highest probabilities north and west of Houston. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Southerly winds may gust to 20-25 kt at times late this morning through this afternoon and again during the daytime hours Sunday.

MARINE

Issued at 1202 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

Moderate southerly winds and 3 to 5 foot seas will prevail through the weekend. There is a high risk of rip currents along area beaches through Sunday morning. Rain chances will remain very low through early next week...increasing to the low to medium range by mid-week.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 95 78 96 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 94 79 95 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 84 89 84 89 / 0 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.