textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Drier with breezy northwesterly winds today.

- Near record-heat incoming...a warming trend is expected this week with highs potentially reaching the mid to upper 80s.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Based on satellite and radar, the Quasi-Linear Convective System (QLCS) line that impacted our area is now well to our east, over Louisiana area. While clearing is occurring from west to east, wraparound low clouds associated with the main upper-level low will move over the region on Sunday. Consequently, lingering light rain (with a few lightning strikes) and/or patchy fog are possible through early morning with low clouds persisting until at least early Sunday afternoon. The exception will be across our northern counties, where mostly cloudy skies will likely persist through late afternoon/early evening. In addition to the cloud cover, breezy post-frontal northwesterly winds will filter in, with gusts between 20 to 25 mph, primarily during the morning hours. These gusts will gradually weaken in the afternoon as pressure gradient slackens. Despite the passage of this strong cold front, a significant drop in temperatures is not expected. However, mostly cloudy skies and breezy conditions will keep temperatures slightly cooler than previous days, with highs generally ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.

A mid to upper level ridge of high pressure will build across the region through at least the end of the work-week, keeping the area drier and warmer. The primary forecast concern this week will be temperatures as the environment will be favorable for near record- breaking heat. 850 mb temperatures exceed the 99th percentile of the NAEFS and have reached the Max for GEFS, particularly from Tuesday into Thursday. The ECMWF Ensemble Extreme Forecast Index suggests values in the 0.6 to 0.9, increasing confidence (though it remains moderate this far out) that record breaking temperatures may occur on Wednesday and Thursday. High temperatures from Tuesday through Wednesday have been increased toward the 75th percentile of the NBM to account for the strong agreement in this pattern shift toward above-normal temperatures for this time of year. This results in forecast highs in the mid to upper 80s.

AVIATION

(06Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1142 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Storms have moved offshore, however a low cloud deck is developing and spreading across SE TX. Area obs are reporting CIGs around 400ft. CIGs are expected to vary from VFR to IFR levels due to clouds varying between SCT to OVC. Am expecting patchy fog as well, but VSBYs should remain MVFR. VFR conditions are expected to prevail by mid to late Sunday morning and continue through the remainder of the TAF cycle. NW to N winds are expected to increase after sunrise with gusts around 20-25 knots. Winds relax by late Sunday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 1038 PM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Light showers should gradually end in the coming hours. Winds and seas will weaken and subside today, remaining below advisory levels. However, Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions remain in effect for all Gulf waters and bays through midday. Light to occasionally moderate onshore winds will resume on Monday and persist through most of the week. With high pressure prevailing over the region, dry weather will continue.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 55 69 47 76 / 90 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 58 71 54 75 / 90 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 58 69 57 66 / 90 0 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until midnight CST tonight for GMZ330-335- 350-355-370-375.