textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Areas of fog are expected during the evening, overnight, and morning hours through Saturday morning.

- Scattered showers expected Friday along with an uncertain temperature forecast due to the presence of a frontal boundary (see discussion).

- Cold front pushes through the region during the day Saturday, bringing cooler & drier weather Sunday and Monday, along with strong winds in the Gulf and bays.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

When I first sat down at the forecast desk this evening, I thought I'd have the privilege of working on a relatively straight forward forecast. But the shallow chilly air looming to our north said "no easy forecasts allowed!" Thus, we have a tricky temperature forecast on Friday.

The chilly air is behind a southward progressing cold front over north Texas. In previous forecasts, this front was expected to washout near our northern counties. But high resolution guidance suggests this front could push farther south into our CWA. Given the history of overperforming shallow chilly airmasses, we opted to give these colder models some weight in today's forecast. Conditions should remain pretty warm and humid ahead of the front. For our central and southern counties, we continue to forecast highs near 80. But for our northern counties, we are now forecasting afternoon temperatures in the 60s. Some of the more aggressive guidance tries to bring this front all the way down to I-10! So something to watch. We also expect some scattered shower activity thanks to modest lift being introduced into the southeast Texas atmosphere. May also have a little overrunning behind the front, which could enhance shower activity somewhat to the north of the boundary.

Before moving on, let's talk about fog. Areas of fog are likely during the morning, evening, and overnight hours through Saturday morning. The only wild card is if the NAM is correct, which brings the aforementioned boundary offshore Friday evening. This would technically lessen the fog risk for Friday night and Saturday morning. For now, we are not thinking this will happen. The best chance of dense fog will be across our southern and coastal counties.

A stronger cold front pushes through the region on Saturday, bringing gusty northerly winds, drier air, and cooler temperatures in its wake by late afternoon or evening. The sfc high building into CONUS from Canada continues to look quite strong. The trajectory of the coldest air will be towards E CONUS. But I still can't help but think that temperatures will be a little cooler than the NBM is selling. So I leaned a little more towards the cooler global guidance. We are currently expecting afternoon highs in the low/mid 60s on Sunday/Monday, with overnight lows in the 30s and 40s. After that, it appears warm and moist onshore flow returns, bringing another round of warmer and more humid conditions by the middle of next week.

Self

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 537 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Very challenging forecast for the Houston terminals due to weak front drooping into the area having an outsize influence on conditions. More optimistic at CLL and UTS as they should get into some post-frontal air, and have potential to get a brief bit of VFR after morning fog/CIGs. CXO-SGR will likely need to be watched very carefully through the day for VSBY and CIG trends. For now, have opted to sort CXO into the northern clump with some brief VFR. IAH, HOU, and SGR am more pessimistic, keeping them in overrunning section just ahead of the front, locking in MVFR CIGs for the afternoon. There is some low chance of light showers, but not enough confidence in impact for even a PROB30 at this point.

MARINE

Issued at 1032 PM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Areas of fog will continue tonight into tomorrow morning, possibly lingering into the afternoon over the Gulf and near the coast. We expect another round of fog Friday evening into Saturday morning. However, warming water temperatures and a nearby frontal boundary could potentially mitigate the fog risk Friday night into Saturday morning. For now, we are keeping areas of dense fog in the forecast.

On Saturday, a frontal boundary will push offshore. Increasing north winds and building seas are likely in the front's wake by Saturday evening and night. Small Craft Advisory level conditions are likely Saturday night into Sunday. Over the Gulf, winds could gust to gale force while seas build to 6-10 feet. Conditions should improve late Sunday into Monday, with onshore flow returning by Tuesday.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 68 55 75 41 / 10 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 64 80 48 / 40 10 20 0 Galveston (GLS) 74 64 74 51 / 30 10 30 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for TXZ197-199- 200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for GMZ330-335.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ350-355.