textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Isolated thunderstorms continue today.

- More widespread thunderstorm chances Thursday, particularly along the coast.

- Generally hot and humid conditions persist into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Isolated onshore showers and thunderstorms are developing around Matagorda Bay. These may pop up farther inland this afternoon, however coverage only looks to be around 20% at best. Hot and humid conditions will continue with highs in the mid-to-upper 90s and heat indicies near 108. Any storms will taper off this evening and a quiet night is expected with lows in the upper 70s to low 80s. The tropical moisture surge remains expected for Thursday with average model PWATs around 2.25". CAMs are slightly less aggressive with QPF than synoptic guidance, however the general consensus continues to be highest chances of showers and thunderstorms along the coast and gradually decreasing farther north, closer to the center of a strong upper ridge where the strongest capping will be present. Heavy downpours will be the main threat with these storms. Use caution on the morning/evening commutes.

The aforementioned ridge will stall over north central Texas between a broad trough to the west and closed low tracking westward across Florida. Combined with drier air on Friday, even the usual onshore precipitation should hold off and we will see a brief reprieve from the higher humidities with most heat indicies staying below 100 across the area. Although the capping and lack of storm chances will continue into Saturday, the humidity will return though with heat indicies returning to the triple-digits. The ridge will begin to weaken on Sunday and the usual onshore diurnal convection should start to return, however the aforementioned upper low will weaken as well. Thus no major large-scale systems are expected to impact the area for the foreseeable future.

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 609 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites with SE winds of 5-10KTS. Winds become light and VRB overnight, then increase once again and settle out of the E by tomorrow afternoon. Some patchy fog is possible for the northern sites around sunrise, especially KCXO. Tomorrow, showers/storms are expected along and south of I-10 and have a more widespread pattern than compared to the isolated pattern of storms we've seen this week. Storms are expected to begin development tomorrow morning, and push inland throughout the day along the seabreeze. TS that develop near the terminals may cause reduced VIS/CIGs, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Convective activity looks to drop off around 23Z tomorrow, and VFR conditions return. We will monitor and amend as needed.

MLG

MARINE

Issued at 1240 PM CDT Wed Sep 16 2026

Due easterly winds near 15 kts will persist through Thursday morning, before increasing to around 20 kts thereafter through early Friday morning. Winds will diminish back to between 15-20 kts Friday and become lighter this week. Seas of 2 to 3 ft will continue today and increase to 4 to 6 ft Thursday before gradually subsiding Friday into the weekend. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible today and will become more widespread Thursday, particularly offshore.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 77 97 74 97 / 0 10 0 0 Houston (IAH) 79 93 77 94 / 10 30 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 83 91 84 90 / 50 60 0 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.