textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Very warm and humidity conditions continue into the weekend. Some days could reach record warmth.

- Through the weekend, expect daily visibility reductions due to fog and sea fog, especially across the bays and coastal areas. The main threat for fog will be during the nighttime and morning hours. Afternoon fog a possibility near the coast.

- Strong cold front late Sunday night into Monday morning to bring much colder conditions Monday-Tuesday before gradually warming back up towards average heading into New Year's Eve.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

The pattern over Texas is being driven by one dominant and one secondary feature. The dominate feature is a large mid/upper ridge that looms large over south-central and southeastern CONUS. The ridge is a major contributer to the holiday heat effecting much of CONUS west of the Rockies. This ridge coupled with onshore flow in the low levels will keep things quite warm and humid through this weekend. But for those who know a thing or two about the weather, you'd think that the ridge would equate to mostly sunny skies. But instead, our afternoon skies feature plentiful low to mid level cumulus. We also have very resilient sea fog over the Gulf, which has struggle to break during the afternoon. These clouds and resilient sea fog are a function of our secondary feature, the mid-level low over northeast Mexico. The low is supplying deep, moist southerly flow aloft, resulting in a rather moist profile considering the proximity of the mid/upper high. Therefore, there hasn't been enough dry air aloft to completely mix out the fog offshore. Afternoon temperatures are expected to average in the upper 70s to low 80s through this weekend. Expect it to feel a few degrees warmer thanks to that humidity. Overnight lows should average in the 60s.

If the recent warmth and humidity takes you out of the holiday fantasy, then fear not! For a strong cold front approaches on Sunday. Gusty winds are likely in the front's wake Sunday night into Monday. The ~1040MB high behind the front should build southward, advecting cold air southward across the plains and into Texas. Monday and Tuesday are expected to feature afternoon highs in the 50s with overnight lows in the 30s. We even have upper 20s in our northern counties. As the forecast stands now, areas outside Houston's urban heat island and away from the coast could easily experience a light freeze for one or two nights next week. Could not rule out freezing temperatures in the city either. But for now, we are going with Monday/Tuesday night lows in the mid/upper 30s in the City of Houston.

Self

AVIATION

(00Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 522 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

High humidity and daytime heating led to some isolated light showers developing between SGR and CXO this afternoon, but this activity will quickly end after sunset. Then, the main forecast concern for the remainder of the period is the return of yet another IFR to LIFR night due to low clouds and dense fog. These conditions have already returned to GLS where CIGs are down to 200ft and dense fog has reduced visibility down to 1/4 - 1/2mi. These conditions will spread further inland through the next several hours with LIFR conditions reaching HOU around 05z and then IAH around 06z. CLL and UTS may prevail as IFR with CIGs down to 600ft and patchy fog reducing visibility down to 2-4mi, but temporary periods of IFR to LIFR conditions will reach up there by 10z. Conditions improve through the day with clouds and fog scattering out/lifting through the morning. MVFR conditions return for most inland locations by 15-16z and then VFR by 17-19z, but patchy fog may linger at GLS into the early afternoon. Fog and low CIGs are expected to return Thursday night.

Light south winds will prevail through the night, increasing in speed to around 6-9kt during the afternoon on Thursday, then dropping below 6kt again by sunset.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1222 PM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Sea fog is expected to remain an issue through the weekend. Though the fog has lifted in many areas as of noon today, a fog bank south of the Sabine is drifting westward and may reduce visibility in the vicinity of Bolivar, Galveston, Galveston Bay, and the adjacent Gulf waters this afternoon. Even if this fog bank dissipates, the chance of widespread dense sea fog will increase again by this evening. Sea fog during the evening, overnight, and morning hours will remain likely through the weekend. It is possible that fog could become somewhat less severe and less widespread this weekend if ocean temperatures manage to sufficiently warm.

The next feature of interest will be a cold front that is expected to push offshore late Sunday night or early Monday morning. Strong gusty winds and building seas are expected in the front's wake. Winds should easily reach Small Craft Advisory criteria. Gale conditions are possible on Monday, especially over the open Gulf. But we cannot rule out gale conditions in the bays as well.

CLIMATE

Issued at 1148 PM CST Tue Dec 23 2025

The record high of 81 degrees was tied for the City of Houston earlier today. With temperatures not likely to change significantly until Sunday's front, records may potentially be tied or broken through the end of the week. At the very least, we will be much closer to those records than we will be to seasonal averages.

As a quick summary, record highs at the two Houston climate sites (IAH, Hobby) range from 81-84 over the next five days, while record high min temps range from 68 to 75 degrees. College Stations records range from 81 to 86 for highs and 65 to 73 for high mins. Galveston's record highs range from 78 to 80 for max temps, and 67 to 71 degrees for record high min temps.

Luchs/Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 64 82 61 82 / 0 0 0 0 Houston (IAH) 64 82 62 82 / 0 0 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 67 75 67 75 / 0 0 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ330-335-350.

Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST Thursday for GMZ355.