textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Increasing cloudiness today. Rain chances begin trending upward tonight and Sunday, moreso west of Interstate 45. This rain will generally be light (and much needed).

- Clouds should begin clearing toward midweek as the slow moving upper level low pressure area tracks to our east. We may see some cooler weather filter in later next week.

- Increasing east and northeast winds and building seas this weekend across the marine areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

The next western trough/cut-off low is currently dipping southward across AZ and will slowly track eastward across northern Mexico this weekend. We should see an increasing depth of mid and high level cloudiness move into the region over the next 12-36 hours. In the low levels, we're still looking for some coastal troffiness to take shape over the mid and lower Texas coast. Moisture feeding up and over this trough in combination with approaching large scale lift and a series of disturbances moving overhead...should generate increasing rain coverage across the Big Bend area and south Texas later tonight and Sunday. The bulk of precipitation should generally remain situated to our west and southwest, but some of the recent guidance does show a fairly saturated profile from about 800mb-250mb. Considering this along with a series of impulses (and associated lift) moving overhead, there is concern that some of this precip might survive its fall to the surface tonight-Sunday night. As such, I've bumped up POPs a touch across eastern portions of the CWA as well. Though the radar will probably look quite messy, overall accumulations will likely be fairly negligible east of Interstate 45 - but we did want to advertise the mention of at least some low chances in the forecast there too.

The cut-off low will begin to open up and track eastward across the state Monday-Tuesday, but some lingering troffiness will remain stretched across portions of the region thru about midweek. Mostly cloudy conditions and lowish rain chances will continue until ridging amplifies across the Rockies and the trof across the eastern CONUS deepens. This type of pattern should provide dry wx for the second half of the week...but will also be prone to some surges of cooler wx backdooring into the region. We could very well need to lower some of our fcst temps late next week as fcst confidence improves. 47

AVIATION

(18Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 1215 PM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

Despite a mid-level cloud deck (~6000 ft AGL) settling in today, VFR conditions prevail throughout the forecast cycle. Winds are generally out of the ENE between 5-10 kts and are slightly elevated along the coast at 10-15 kts (occasionally gusting 20 kts). Overnight, winds become VRB ~5 kts inland and remain elevated along the coast. Patchy fog is possible again, primarily lowering VSBYs around KLBX but breaks apart at sunrise. Winds pick back up out of the ENE Sunday morning between 5-10 kts with that 6000 ft AGL cloud deck still lingering. To our west, a broad area of precipitation develops late tonight and into Sunday afternoon. Just how far this system will push into our region is still uncertain, so PROB30s have been excluded from most of the TAFs. If it is able to push towards us, guidance generally agrees that precipitation would be largely stratiform and west of I-45.

BSM

MARINE

Issued at 1234 AM CST Sat Nov 7 2026

East northeast winds are expected to increase toward morning as a coastal trough develops off the lower and mid Texas coast. Look for moderate east and northeast winds and building seas over the weekend, especially in the waters west of Freeport. Small Craft Advisories will likely be required for portions of the upper Texas coast tonight into Sunday. Conditions should gradually improve early next week. 47

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 56 68 55 69 / 30 60 30 30 Houston (IAH) 58 72 58 71 / 20 40 30 30 Galveston (GLS) 64 72 64 73 / 10 20 30 30

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.