textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along a cold front Saturday afternoon and evening. Localized downpours will be possible, which could result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas.

- Seasonal conditions expected in the wake of the front going into early next week.

- Hazardous Marine Conditions: Moderate to strong northeasterly winds and building seas are expected Saturday night through Sunday evening following the passage of the cold front. Gusts to gale will be possible.

- There will be a moderate to high risk of strong rip currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through at least the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

The anticipated cold front is currently moving southwards through the Central Plains, and it will be moving through SE Texas through the day on Saturday. Before this front pushes through, the mild and humid conditions will persist with breezy southerly winds. Isolated streamer showers will be possible as early as this morning as moisture increases ahead of the approaching front, then we can expect increased chances of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight ahead of, along, and behind the frontal passage. FROPA is looking to occur in the Piney Woods/Brazos Valley between 9-11am, the I-10 Corridor between 1-4pm, and then off the coast between 5-7pm. Coverage of the showers and storms is expected to be isolated to scattered across the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods region (although an isolated strong storm along the front cannot be ruled out), but then increase to scattered to widespread down to the coast as the front pushes through. High PWATs (near 1.8-2.0") will allow for locally heavy rainfall to occur with any thunderstorms that develop. Overall, most areas will see up to 0.5-1.0" of rainfall, but locally higher totals are expected. The previous two runs of the HREF and REFS showed some isolated areas with rain totals of 3-5" from the thunderstorms that develop ahead of the front east of I-45 along the I-10 Corridor. The area with the highest totals will largely be dependent on where the isolated thunderstorms develop, so the area to watch may change as we get closer to FROPA. These heavy downpours may result in instances of minor flooding in urban, low-lying and poor drainage areas. WPC has placed portions of southeast Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall.

While the surface front will exit the coast Saturday evening, there will be lingering moisture behind the front that will persist until a reinforcing front of drier conditions moves in overnight into Sunday morning. So, expect scattered showers to persist through the night, especially along the coast. The passage of the cold front will also usher in breezy northerly winds (gusts to 20-25mph in land, up to 30mph at the coast) Saturday night into Sunday afternoon.

Cooler weather is on tap Saturday night through Monday with afternoon high temperatures only getting into the low 70s and overnight lows down into the 50s (maybe even upper 40s for portions of the Piney Woods). A gradual warming trend is expected through the remainder of the week with highs in the mid 70s by Tuesday, near 80 on Wednesday, and then mid-80s to end the work week.

After the cold front moves through Saturday night, the next chance of rain arrives Monday night into Tuesday as an upper-level low moves through the region. PWATs will rise to around 1.5-1.7" on Tuesday, so cannot out rule some isolated downpours.

Fowler

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sat Apr 18 2026

MVFR cigs will prevail for much of the TAF period at all terminals. Scattered SHRA will begin to develop late this morning near CLL/UTS/CXO then spread southward during the afternoon to all other terminals. TSRA will be possible at CLL/UTS/CXO along a cold front, and have included PROB30s for these terminals from roughly 18-22z. Farther south, confidence in TSRA is higher and have now converted the PROB30s to TEMPOs in this cycle. Behind the front, winds sharply turn from southerly to northerly and become gusty with gusts of 20-25 kt. SHRA will also continue for several hours behind the front. Some reduction to IFR is possible near the coast as well. Near the end of the period, cigs will begin to rise to VFR at the northern terminals with SHRA ending. However, MVFR cigs and light SHRA will likely continue through 12z at LBX/GLS.

Young

MARINE

Issued at 1117 PM CDT Fri Apr 17 2026

While light to moderate onshore flow will continue through Saturday afternoon, a drastic change in conditions is expected Saturday night into Sunday following the passage of a cold front. This front is expected to push through the coastal waters Saturday evening into Saturday night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will develop Saturday afternoon/evening ahead of the front with showers lingering through early Sunday morning due to lingering moisture behind the front. Isolated downpours and gusty winds will be possible with any thunderstorms that develop.

Strong north to northeasterly winds are expected to develop behind the passage of the cold front. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Bays Saturday evening into early Sunday afternoon due to expected wind speeds of 20-30kt with frequent gusts to gale (around 35kt) during the late night/early morning hours. The highest wind gusts will likely occur near the Bay entrances. A Gale Watch has been issued for the same timeframe for the coastal waters where winds of 25-30kt with frequent gusts to 35-40kt possible. Very rough bay waters and seas of 5-8ft in the nearshore waters and 7-10ft in the offshore waters are expected. While the Gale Watch ends early Sunday afternoon, there will be elevated winds and seas through late Sunday. Winds veer through Monday with onshore flow expected by Monday night.

Beach Forecast: There is a high risk of strong rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches through Saturday. There will also be increased wave run-up and elevated tides through Saturday (high tides running around 3-3.3ft above MLLW). Elevated tides are expected to return early next week as the onshore flow returns.

Fowler

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 75 52 73 53 / 50 70 0 0 Houston (IAH) 82 55 72 56 / 70 90 10 0 Galveston (GLS) 79 61 72 67 / 40 80 20 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM CDT Sunday for GMZ330-335.

Gale Watch from this evening through Sunday afternoon for GMZ350- 355-370-375.