textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Flood Watch has been cancelled.

- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are still possible the next few days, but risk of widespread, significant impacts is lowering.

- Mariners should remain weather aware this holiday weekend. Better storm chances should be transitioning into the Gulf, but still close enough to the coast to keep abreast of the weather before venturing out on the water.

- Next storm system moves into the area Tuesday night or Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

A subtle mid-lvl ridge is currently sitting over the region, leading to less convective activity today. PWAT values have decreased, particularly for areas north of I-10. Consequently, any showers or storms that manage to develop this afternoon should remain isolated to scattered, mostly confined along the coastal counties.

Memorial Day has trended less active. While not everyone will see rain, we cannot completely rule out some afternoon isolated to scattered showers/storms. This activity will be mostly diurnally- driven and paired with a weak impulse of energy aloft, mainly concentrated east of the I-45 corridor. Additional rainfall totals up to an inch will be possible. While the threat of isolated localized flooding remains possible under any strong updraft, a widespread flood threat is no expected. Therefore, the Flood Watch has been cancelled.

More widespread activity arrives late Tuesday into Thursday. An upper lvl trough will deepen over the Pacific Northwest and into the Rockies early this week, ejecting a series of shortwaves embedded in the flow aloft across the Plains. PWATs are forecast to increase once again, climbing back toward the 90th percentile of climatology. Compared to previous days, model guidance and most ensemble means are in good agreement on bringing this series of disturbances into the region by midweek, with only minor discrepancies remaining regarding timing and rainfall totals. Therefore, widespread showers (some locally heavy) and thunderstorms can be expected. The risk of excessive rainfall is already highlighted by the WPC in their Day 4 Outlook, which places all of Southeast Texas under a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4).

A weak mid-level ridge will build back over the region toward the end of the week. This ridge could potentially limit any rain/storms to only isolated or scattered, and mostly diurnally-driven into the weekend.

JM

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 619 AM CDT Sun May 24 2026

KCXO experiencing MVFR VSBYs. All other sites at VFR. Precipitation coverage not expected to be as widespread today. A few showers have developed southwest of the LBX terminal, with a gradual NE motion. Coverage may increase this afternoon as daytime heating kicks in, particularly along and south of I-10. Maintained PROB30 SHRA for IAH and PROB30 TSRA for HOU. Winds will be light out of the ENE through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 213 PM CDT Sun May 24 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop over the Gulf waters, particularly well offshore through early this evening. Another chance for showers and storms is expected on Monday, but the best chances arrive by midweek as another strong disturbance moves through. Erratic gusty winds and elevated seas up to 6 ft can be expected near any storms. Otherwise, light easterly winds and seas up to 4 ft can be expected this afternoon, persisting through at least Monday morning. Outside of any storms, light to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and low seas can be expected.

JM

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 69 88 69 87 / 0 10 10 10 Houston (IAH) 71 89 72 87 / 10 20 10 20 Galveston (GLS) 76 84 77 85 / 10 10 10 20

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...None.