textproduct: Houston/Galveston

KEY MESSAGES

- Though conditions will be gradually improving, elevated seas offshore will take a while to subside. Negative tide levels are anticipated in the bays for a couple of days.

- Fairly seasonable weather is expected through most of the week.

- The next two cold fronts are forecast to push through Wednesday and Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

GOES-16 Satellite shows increasing cloud cover moving in from the SW tonight. This can be attributed to a cutoff low stationed near Baja gradually progresses eastward over the next couple of days. Expect cloudy skies to continue as it makes its eastward progression; however, with minimal moisture recovery, conditions should remain dry as it passes overhead. At most could see a few sprinkles or virga (lower levels remain dry, so any moisture falling through this layer would evaporate pretty quickly).

The aforementioned low will get absorbed into a deepening trough over the eastern CONUS on Wednesday, and will eject a front into SE Texas in the process. Ahead of the front, look for SW/W flow to bring in a brief period of WAA...just enough to allow highs to jump back into the mid/upper 60s to low 70s on Wednesday. The FROPA is expected to pass during the afternoon/evening hours on Wednesday, with a secondary front occurring sometime Friday night into Saturday. Ensembles have backed off on moisture availability with both the ECMWF and the NAEFS showing PW values in the 10th percentile to average range. NBM has also backed off, so at this time have majority of the area at a less than 10% chance for precipitation.

Bottom line is that temperatures will spend the week back and forth between the 50s/60s to 60s/low 70s during the day as a series of fronts moves through. Moisture return will be brief and may not yield any precipitation ahead of each front. Lows will generally be in the 30s to 40s each night.

Bailey

AVIATION

(12Z TAF Issuance) Issued at 435 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

VFR conditions with passing BKN to OVC mid and high level clouds. Light northeasterly winds during the daytime become more variable by sunset.

Fowler

MARINE

Issued at 1231 AM CST Mon Jan 12 2026

Offshore winds will continue through the majority of the week. Mariners should anticipate some negative tide levels through at least mid- week, potentially through the end of the week, moreso in the central and northern half of the the bays. A Low Water Advisory is in effect there and may be extended. Otherwise, look for light winds and falling seas early in the week. The next front is expected to push into the waters Wednesday afternoon with increasing northwest and north winds filling in behind it Wednesday night. Small Craft Advisory conditions look probable.

Bailey

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS

College Station (CLL) 62 44 62 44 / 0 10 10 0 Houston (IAH) 62 44 62 47 / 0 10 0 0 Galveston (GLS) 59 52 60 53 / 0 10 10 0

HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

TX...None. GM...Low Water Advisory until noon CST Tuesday for GMZ335.