textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate trade winds will prevail, allowing sea breezes to develop in sheltered leeward areas today. A brief increase in windward showers is expected Monday night into Tuesday, especially for the easternmost islands. Moderate trade winds will begin building back into the region during the second half of the week, becoming locally breezy again by the weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

A few spotty heavier showers can be seen this morning on radar moving towards eastern Big Island. Showery weather is expected for the Big Island later today while drier conditions prevail elsewhere.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 AM HST Mon Oct 12 2026

Currently as of 3AM HST, radar and satellite shows a mostly to partly cloudy sky with a few isolated light showers going on across the state. A weak low in the mid and upper levels is located just east of the Big Island. Over the next few days, this feature will linger and then move off to the northeast, with little effect on island weather. However, an area of enhanced moisture associated with a trough east of the islands will make its way westward, reaching the eastern end of the state later today. As this feature quickly moves through, windward showers are anticipated to increase, especially for the Big Island and Maui. The remaining islands may see a slight increase in windward and mauka showers as well.

By Wednesday, moderate trades will build back into the region, strengthening to become locally breezy by the end of the week. Showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas throughout the rest of the week, especially during the overnight and morning hours. An additional band of moisture approaching from the east could bring another uptick in showers late this week into next weekend.

AVIATION

Light to moderate trades will continue today. Afternoon cloud buildups and isolated showers across leeward areas may produce localized MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

Showers may increase across windward Big Island tonight, with MVFR ceilings possible near PHTO and brief visibility reductions in passing showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail at most terminals.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE

Gentle to moderate trade winds will gradually increase from east to west today as a weak low fills northwest of Kauai and a surface ridge builds north of the state. Moderate to locally fresh trades will strengthen Thursday as surface high pressure builds far north of the state, and a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) will likely be needed for the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui. Trades will further strengthen Friday into the weekend and may require an expansion of the SCA to additional waters.

Small surf will persist along north facing shores into the evening. A fresh, long period northwest swell will build late tonight and Tuesday, pushing surf along north and west facing shores to near seasonal average through Wednesday. This swell will decline Thursday and Friday. A medium period north- northwest swell will build late Friday and will be the main source to produce surf around seasonal average during the weekend, though a small longer period northwest swell will also arrive during the weekend.

South shore surf will remain above seasonal average through at least this morning then gradually lower later this afternoon through Wednesday as a long period south-southwest swell slowly declines. Another long period south swell will produce surf near seasonal average Friday and Saturday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain small through Thursday as small wind waves and tiny east swell persist. Choppy surf will increase slightly as trade winds strengthen across the region Friday into the weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 AM HST Mon Oct 12 2026

Light to moderate trade winds will continue for the first half of the week. Dry air will bring RH levels down to near- critical values for parts of the state through this afternoon but winds will be light. Inversion heights range from 4000-11000 feet.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.