textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

High pressure north and northeast of the islands will continue to deliver windward and mauka showers on breezy to windy trades through early next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 838 PM HST Tue Feb 10 2026

Elected to make only minor amendments to the winds and temperatures to match the current trends for this evening's update. Overall winds are progged to trend downward, maintaining moderate to localized breezy trades through the next several days. These trades will deliver typical clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas as a result. The Winter Weather Advisory for the summits of the Big Island will also prevail through 6 PM Wednesday for periods of freezing rain and snowfall, but will be reevaluated with this morning's package. Otherwise, the latest forecast remains on track.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 301 PM HST Tue Feb 10 2026

Westward push of dry air in the 850-700mb layer has provided an extra downward push in maintenance of downsloping winds for much of this afternoon. However, with increased moisture arriving in the trade winds and current observations lacking gusts to 50 mph, the Wind Advisory has been cancelled for Maui County and the Big Island. Incoming band of showers is presently draped over Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County and is a couple hours from the Big Island. The increase in showers will continue through this evening for the former while lasting for most or all of the overnight period for the latter. Further, temperatures on the Big Island summits have risen slightly above freezing but are forecast to return to sub- freezing overnight. The potential exists for showers to deposit freezing rain on the summits as moisture deepens late tonight into early Wednesday. The presence of mid-level moisture also supports mention of snow. Suspect temperatures will again become marginal during Wednesday, but prospects for upslope convection also suggest potential for a transition to a dominant ptype of snow which would be easier to sustain with marginal boundary layer temps. Going forward, strong trades gradually become moderately stable and continue through the weekend delivering clouds and showers mainly windward and mauka.

AVIATION

Issued at 838 PM HST Tue Feb 10 2026

Breezy trades with windward SHRA expected for the next few days. Low cigs and MVFR conds in heavier SHRA possible. VFR conds prevail elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all of Kauai and Oahu, as well as the N thru SE sections of Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol severe turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod turb between FL220 to FL380 over entire area.

Light icing remains possible in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

MARINE

Issued at 301 PM HST Tue Feb 10 2026

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift eastward over the next few days. Trade wind speeds will gradually weaken from strong to gale force tonight to fresh to strong from Wednesday onward. A Gale Warning is in effect for windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island, while a Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is posted for all remaining waters through tonight. Expect the Gale Warning to drop back to SCA levels for windier coastal waters from Wednesday on into the weekend.

The strong trade winds will keep high surf and very rough seas along east facing shores of most islands tonight. A High Surf Advisory is in effect through early Wednesday morning to cover these conditions. Slowly decreasing easterly trade winds tomorrow will cause surf heights to fall along east facing shores below advisory thresholds by Wednesday morning. However, elevated surf heights along east facing shores will keep rough conditions in the forecast just below surf advisory thresholds into Friday.

Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the week with smaller surf lingering in the forecast along north and west facing shores for the foreseeable future. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel.