textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy to locally strong trade winds are expected this week. Winds will be strongest in higher terrain areas, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains across all islands. Showers carried in on the trade will be focused over windward and mauka areas.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 856 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026

Skies were mostly cloudy this evening, and scattered showers were moving east over mainly windward and mauka areas. Rainfall amounts have been relatively light so far, with amounts in the past three hours ranging from a few hundredths to a few tenths at lower elevations, and a half inch to around an inch at higher elevations. The eruption at Kilauea continues at this time, with ash up to around 15000 ft moving southwest. Winds have come down below advisory criteria in most areas, and the wind advisory was cancelled this afternoon. No changes to the forecast are planned at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026

Main change with the afternoon package has been to drop the Wind Advisory. While a few gages reported very low end advisory level winds, feel they are not representative of conditions to justify the Wind Advisory. High resolution models that were showing some of the strongest winds are higher than observations, so have adjusted the forecast winds down a bit. Expect breezy trades to continue, but by and large will be just below advisory levels.

As Kilauea volcano activity has increased today, and with information from the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, an Ashfall Advisory has been issued for this evening. Any extension will be based on any further eruption activity. Additionally, haze/vog has been added to the forecast for the Big Island. With trade winds at the surface, most of that activity will be carried to the southeast of the volcano, however with the most recent eruption activity, some may expand to areas to the east of the volcano. With breezy trades expected to continue over the next couple of days, the vog is not expected to move over the smaller islands.

Strong high pressure far north of the islands is helping to drive the breezy trades in the region. Over the next couple of days, the global models have the high sinking southward and weakening. This combination will maintain a pressure gradient over the islands that will support the breezy trade winds. Moisture riding in on the trades will continue to focus shower activity to the windward areas.

Meanwhile a cold front far northwest of the islands will move to the east over the next couple days with an upper level trough strengthening. The ECMWF and GFS both keep the surface and upper level features west of the islands, stalling both out around Wednesday/Thursday, and then having the system retrograde to the west at the end of the week.

AVIATION

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026

Breezy easterly trade winds continue today, bringing bands of showers along with it. These showers will continue to primarily affect windward and mountain areas across the state, with some spillover showers leaking into leeward areas. MVFR conditions will occur within the showers while VFR prevails elsewhere. These intermittent showers are expected to continue through tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. This will likely be needed for the next several days. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island due to ongoing and upstream low clouds and showers. TEMPO light icing is also possible within a layer between 130-FL240 from Oahu to Big Island due to higher level clouds moving over the state today.

Recently, Kilauea produced an ash cloud reaching up to 35kft according to radar. A volcanic ash SIGMET under series Papa has been issued to cover the ash cloud.

MARINE

Issued at 338 PM HST Sun Feb 15 2026

Sprawling 1045mb high anchored over the NE Pacific Basin is driving strong trades and localized near-gales over the waters this afternoon. Existing Gale Warning has been transitioned to a Small Craft Advisory based on the latest ASCAT and water-adjacent land observations. Governing high pressure weakens by late this week allowing trades to ease.

Observed surf along E shores solidly in the High Surf Advisory range where it will likely remain into mid-week. The HSA therefore remains in effect and may need to be extended into Wednesday as strong trades and fresh easterly trade wind swell persist.

Minimal energy anticipated out of the N, W, and S quadrants through the period. Surf along N and W facing exposures gets a small bump Wednesday and Thursday courtesy of a small, medium period NW swell.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

Ashfall Advisory until 10 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island Southeast.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.