textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trades will rule for the next week, with a gradual increase in wind speed from the middle of next week into next weekend. Otherwise, expect typical windward and mauka showers, along with Kona showers. Rainfall is expected to be rather light.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

The latest forecast remains on track through the weekend. With model guidance suggesting a possibility of a weak upper-level trough moving over the region as early as Monday, opted to increasing the possibility of precipitation (PoPs) and the weather grids for Monday through Tuesday to show a chance of rainfall along the windward slopes of all islands. Otherwise, the typical trade wind pattern will prevail through the week, bringing light shower activity to the windward and mauka areas.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM HST Fri Apr 24 2026 Radar shows isolated showers in some windward areas as of mid- afternoon. Satellite shows mostly cloudy skies windward and mauka, with mostly clear skies leeward. Winds were moderate, averaging 10-20 mph with gusts 20 to 25 mph in the usual spots that get breezy in the afternoon during trades (such as Kuaokala, the airport on Molokai, Lahaina, and in the mountains).

A basic trade wind pattern will be with us for the next week. Moderate wind speeds will see a gradual increase beginning in the middle of next week. A slight increase in showers is expected Monday and Tuesday as an area of increased low level moisture moves in from the northeast. Upper level ridging mainly to our northwest with upper level troughing to our northeast will keep us with light NW flow aloft for most of the next seven days.

Of note, the operational GFS continues to show the possibility of a weak upper level trough moving southeast over the area Tuesday into Tuesday night, but this is not the favored solution at this time. If it were to occur, we would see some stronger showers Tuesday into Wednesday due to instability from colder air aloft.

AVIATION

Issued at 334 PM HST Fri Apr 24 2026 A ridge north of the islands will maintain a moderate to locally breezy trade wind pattern into the weekend. VFR conditions are expected to prevail across the islands. Brief MVFR conditions are possible, primarily in windward areas due to isolated showers. No AIRMETs are in effect, and none are expected for the period.

MARINE

A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds through Saturday. A slight decrease is expected Saturday night into Sunday as a front passes far north of the state. High pressure will rebuild far north of the state towards the middle of next week, which should bring the return of moderate to locally strong trades.

A small medium period NW swell should fill in tonight into Saturday, which should provide a modest increase along north and west facing shores. A slightly larger NW swell will fill in late Saturday and peak on Sunday. A developing hurricane-force low this weekend near the Aleutian Islands should send a moderate northwest swell towards the middle of next week.

Buoy 51000 NE of Oahu showed modest increase of short-period energy from the NE this morning associated with a small fetch of strong winds few hundred miles NE of the state. This should provide a short- lived increase along east facing shores tonight into Saturday. Otherwise, below average surf is expected along eastern exposures into next week due to the lack of any strong trade wind activity over and upstream of the state.

Small background energy from the west will continue to linger through Saturday and fade out late this weekend. A small southwest bump from the Tasman Sea that passed across the American Samoa 51209 buoy Wednesday is expected to arrive tomorrow. No significant south swell is expected through the first half of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.