textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A ridge to the north of the islands will weaken slightly the rest of the week, allowing trade winds to diminish briefly to moderate levels tonight into Friday before gradually restrengthening back to locally breezy levels over the weekend. Clouds and showers will remain focused mainly along windward and mauka areas into early next week. A drier airmass moving in from the east is expected to limit shower activity into the weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

A pocket of moisture and shower activity evident upstream of the islands on visible satellite imagery could produce a slight enhancement of windward and mauka shower activity today. Otherwise, expect a general drying trend through the weekend.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 333 AM HST Thu Jul 2 2026

The grids were updated with the morning package to bring it in line with the latest NBM, but little change to the forecast.

High pressure far to the north of the islands will remain into the weekend. Winds are expected to weaken a bit tonight and tomorrow to moderate levels, but then strengthen a bit this weekend to moderate to locally breezy levels.

Satellite derived precipitable water shows a drier airmass moving into the islands today, and that will limit shower activity. Any clouds and showers that do get carried in on the trade wind flow will be focused over the windward and mauka areas. No significant rainfall totals are expected over the next couple of days.

Dewpoints have been in the low 70s the last couple of days, but have started to slowly lower back into the upper 60s, which will make it a little less muggy. Expect dewpoints to remain in the mid to upper 60s through the holiday weekend.

Tropical Storm Douglas in the east Pacific is expected to weaken to a remnant low Friday. Remnant moisture from this system will likely be carried into the islands on the trade wind flow during the middle to latter half of the new week. This could increase shower activity, mainly to the windward and mauka locations.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend, focusing low clouds and limited showers over windward and mountain areas. MVFR conditions are possible in showers, otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE

Latest model guidance suggests the surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through the weekend. Consequently, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended into the weekend. The SCA will likely remain in place through the forecast period as the high remains nearly stationary with minor fluctuations in strength.

A small, medium period south swell will linger today just below the summertime average. Forerunners of a small, long period south swell will fill in this afternoon and evening and peak tonight and Friday. This swell will help maintain near to just below summertime average surf into the weekend. A moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday into Monday. This swell will slowly fade through the middle of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny today with a minor uptick Friday into the holiday weekend as a small, medium period northwest swell arrives. Tiny to near flat conditions for north facing shores will return next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.