textproduct: Honolulu

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 925 AM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Forecast remains on track with the front now approaching Maui County this morning. Showers have generally been focused over windward and mountain areas this morning for Kauai and Oahu. Latest 12Z HREF model show showers decreasing over windward areas throughout the morning and increasing over leeward areas this afternoon due to the sea breezes. Rainfall amounts should remain light though over leeward areas. Over Maui County showers are now increasing over Molokai and we should see showers eventually move over Maui as well later this morning with showers focused over windward and mountain areas. Over on the Big Island, we are expecting the frontal boundary to stay north, thus mostly fair weather is expected. Although afternoon clouds and showers are still expected over the slopes of the Big Island this afternoon.

SYNOPSIS

A weak front will move through much of the state today before pulling away to the northeast tonight. This will bring a round of showers along and behind the front to most areas today. Showers will generally decrease this evening and tonight as land breezes develop. Tuesday and Wednesday will be generally dry, with light southeast winds and sea-and land-breezes. Another weak front will approach late Thursday, possibly lingering over the state into Saturday. An enhanced chance of showers will be the biggest impact of this front, as winds appear to be light behind it. A much stronger front is possible early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Showers were moving southeast through the western end of the state this morning as of 3:15 AM HST. The showers were mainly along and just behind a cold front. As the front moves through Oahu between now and around sunrise, winds will become northeasterly and gusty.

The latest guidance suggests the front will make it to Maui County, then stall before reaching the Big Island. Winds will become northeast behind the front initially, becoming easterly this evening. Big Island will see weak east to southeast winds, along with sea-breeze winds this afternoon. Scattered to numerous showers will move across the islands from Maui west, with the Big Island seeing isolated showers at lower elevations with scattered showers at higher elevations.

The front will pull away to the northeast tonight, leaving Tuesday and Wednesday mostly dry with light winds and more sea- and land-breezes developing. A new front is forecast to come into the islands Thursday, with some guidance showing it reaching all the way to the Big Island, while other runs showing it barely making it to Oahu. With no consensus yet, we'll put some slightly higher PoPs in for Thursday through Saturday night, but won't try to be too specific on location yet. At the end of the period (next Monday), models are actually in good agreement that a strong front will move into the state. Of course, at that time range the forecast is highly subject to change, but for now the potential exists for a significant weather-maker early next week.

MARINE

Issued at 322 AM HST Mon Jan 26 2026

Fresh to strong northeast winds associated with a front will continue over the exposed Kauai waters and waters north of Oahu this morning. This has a resulted in a short-fused Small Craft Advisory over these areas, which should persist through the early morning hours before easing this afternoon. The latest guidance shows this front stalling and gradually weakening as it lingers from east to west across the smaller islands through the day. High pressure building north of the area in its wake will allow winds to veer easterly through the day. For Maui County and the Big Island waters, the winds will gradually shift out of the east and increase into the light to moderate range by the afternoon.

The progressive pattern across the region continues thereafter, with another front approaching by midweek. As the ridge axis shifts southward over the islands, winds will veer to the south to southeast tonight through Tuesday. This front could reach the Kauai waters late in the week.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores remain small today as the medium-period northwest swell that arrived Sunday continues to ease. The exception will be along north-facing shores of Kauai and Oahu this morning, where the strong north to northeast winds trailing the front are generating short-period and choppy surf conditions (up to 5 ft in the 2-6 second bands at the Hanalei PacIOOS buoy). Conditions should improve later today as the winds gradually ease and shift out of the east.

A fresh, medium-period northwest swell generated by a broad storm-force low tracking eastward near the Aleutians over the weekend will arrive tonight, then shift out of the north- northwest and peak Tuesday night. Surf could approach advisory levels before gradually easing Wednesday into Thursday.

Another larger northwest swell is expected later this week as a broad and complex low evolves over the far northwest Pacific. This swell will begin building down the island chain Thursday and could become a long-duration event, with a peak centered around the Friday through Saturday time frame. Some uncertainty remains regarding the magnitude and timing, as the ECMWF and GFS continue to depict differences in the evolution of this system.

Surf along east-facing shores will briefly trend up as the trades return today, with the highest surf expected on Kauai and Oahu. This will be short-period and choppy surf, driven primarily by locally generated wind waves, and should be short-lived. A downward trend is anticipated by Tuesday as winds shift toward the south and upstream trade flow remains absent.

Surf along south-facing shores may also trend up slightly by Tuesday as a small, background long-period south swell arrives. This source is expected to ease by midweek.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until noon HST today for Kauai Channel- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.