textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and light winds prevail through Thursday followed by a transition to a very windy and much wetter period Saturday night into early next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today through Friday. Quiescent conditions exist through Friday. The afternoon sounding out of Lihue is exceptionally dry, especially through the depth of the boundary layer and it is no surprise that there are virtually no post-frontal clouds over the islands today. This will continue to be the case through tonight and into Wednesday. During this time, a weak and progressive ridge axis will advance over the islands causing winds to weaken and veer around the compass from NW this morning to light trades on Wednesday and finally southerly on Thursday. By Friday, increasingly convergent SW flow potentially drives a couple waves of benign showers over the western islands during the day.

Friday night through Monday. The next front in the sequence is modeled to arrive over the western portion of the state on Friday evening. Initial moisture depth along the front is modeled to be rather deep, but also appears tenuous at times given the moisture band's encounter with the resident dry, stable, and generally hostile environment. Suspect moisture depth around 10-12kft is most likely with a couple pockets of deeper convection possible as the front eases toward Oahu. In typical fashion, the front will begin to weaken given a lack of upper level support.

As the front settles somewhere over the western half of the state, a high amplitude longwave pattern will take shape during the weekend. This will support an emerging right that is poised to remain parked over the islands for at least a couple of days. This will in turn activate and deepen the existing front leading to a corridor of increasingly organized rainfall. At the same time, building surface high pressure to the tune of 1035+mb along 30N will drive a strong trade wind pattern that will become increasingly unstable as troughing deepens. The latest guidance suggests 500mb temps on the order of -15C over the western half of the islands by Saturday night before the airmass begins to modify Sunday into Monday. There is a a chance for trade wind thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, when the front is getting its act together, as 700-500mb lapse rates reach or exceed 7.5C/km in the vicinity of Kauai. However, limited low-level moisture (dewpoints around 65F) may prove to be a limiting factor for thunder. Finally, strong consensus exists that low-level flow will become strongly convergent along the frontal zone as trades strengthen along/behind it against impinging easterly flow. This will serve as an ample low-level forcing mechanism to organize heavy rain, most likely somewhere between Kauai and Maui, and potentially trigger thunderstorms. Showers will be very progressive given the strong background flow, but a flood threat may yet emerge if showers/tstorms are able to anchor along convergent low-level flow and train over a certain area.

Trade winds ramp up considerably on Sunday, especially west of Maui County (but potentially including Maui County) with sustained winds and gusts potentially reaching High Wind Warning criteria, especially through local acceleration zones. A moist boundary layer and unstable environment will tend to dampen downsloping potential, but with 925mb winds pushing 50kts at times, this will be an important element to monitor Sunday into Monday.

Monday night onward. Forcing diminishes as mid-level heights rise in response to the retreating upper low and loss of jet support. The event should wind down quickly heading into Monday night and strong easterly trades settle in for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

Issued at 334 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026 Mostly clear skies prevail behind this morning's frontal passage. VFR and scant shower activity is anticipated for the next 24 hours as moderate NW winds this afternoon gradually veer to light easterly trades by tomorrow.

AIRMET Tango for lee turb is in effect for the Big Island.

MARINE

Issued at 334 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

This afternoon, a front is dissipating near the Big Island. Winds across the coastal waters will briefly ease to light to moderate speeds and shift out of the east by Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind the dissipating front. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds may return during the second half of the week as the next front draws closer to the region. Guidance continues to show strong to gale-force northeast winds filling in over most Hawaiian waters following the next frontal passage this weekend into early next week.

Observations this afternoon show that the long advertised extra- large, medium- to long-period swell is continuing to move through the islands, resulting in warning level surf along exposed north and west facing shores. Recent buoy observations from Waimea and Hanalei are showing significant wave heights of 16 to 18 feet this afternoon, most of which is being generated from the northwest swell energy within the 14 to 16 second band. The extra-large to giant surf is expected to peak this afternoon into this evening along exposed coasts of the smaller islands, with heights well above warning levels lingering into Wednesday before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Overwash onto vulnerable low-lying roadways and properties that are directly exposed to surf will be possible throughout this event. For now, a High Surf Warning remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island through the day on Wednesday. A High Surf Advisory also remains in effect for north facing shores of the Big Island. Due to elevated seas well above 10 feet, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for exposed Hawaiian waters as well.

Surf along north and west facing shores will potentially return to warning levels for exposed coasts by Friday night into Saturday due to a new northwest swell arriving, generated from a low currently over the far northwest Pacific.

Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend as strong to gale- force northeast winds fill in behind a cold front expected.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.