textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Tropical Storm Lala will move over or just south of the islands this weekend but wind, rain and surf impacts will be felt statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Latest satellite imagery loop continues to show an area of deeper convection spinning cyclonically a few hundred miles east southeast of the Big Island in association with Tropical Storm Lala. The 11 PM HST NHC advisory had the center of Lala located about 165 miles east southeast of South Point. Ahead of the impending storm, winds across the state have already begun to ramp up with gusts in the 40 to 50 mph range along ridge tops and wind prone areas of leeward Oahu, Molokai, Lanai, and Maui. Gusts to 40 to 55 mph have been observed at select sensors on the Big Island in the lee of the Kohala Mountains and around Hawai'i Volcanoes National Park. Radar shows light to moderate rainbands rapidly pushing on shore windward Big Island from the northeast. Rain rates, however, have remained below half and inch and hour. Conditions should continue to deteriorate through the day on Saturday as Lala approaches from the southeast with a possible landfall on the Big Island by Saturday afternoon. Forecast remains largely on track this evening with no changes to watches or warnings. See previous AFD for more details.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 514 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 The main forecast concern for the next few days will be potential impacts from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 PM HST, Tropical Storm Lala was located near and moving west northwest around 14 mph. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move near the southern end of the Big Island Saturday, then continue moving to the west northwest, with the center of circulation remaining south of the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on the latest forecasts, and prepare for the potential impacts described below.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39 mph to 73 mph) may begin as early as tonight across parts of the Big Island, Maui County as early as Saturday morning, Oahu as early as Saturday afternoon, and Kauai as early as Saturday night. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters due to a non-negligable chance of hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state and surrounding waters. Localized areas of highly enhanced and damaging winds are possible over and downwind of the mountainous terrain, even well away from the tropical cyclone center. These localized strong winds and gusts will also be felt in advance of the arrival of Lala (i.e. tonight and Saturday morning) and should be kept in mind as last minute preparations are being made.

HEAVY RAINFALL...Periods of heavy rainfall are expected starting with the Big Island tonight, reaching Maui County on Saturday, and Oahu and Kauai later Saturday and Sunday. Orographic enhancement will result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams are possible. The location of heaviest rain currently favors the Big Island and parts of Maui. The current forecast has 10 to 15 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts across windward Big Island. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible on windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall could occur across the remainder of the island chain. While the highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward areas, leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk. Heavy rain could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch has been issued for the Big Island and Maui County from tonight through late Saturday night, and for Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau from Saturday evening to early Monday morning.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala is expected to generate a large easterly swell as it moves northwestward. Surf may build along exposed east and southeast facing shores from east to west as the system approaches. A High Surf Warning is posted for east facing shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and extremely rough seas are expected to rapidly increase Saturday and Sunday on exposed southeast and east shores and may produce damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across vulnerable coastal infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of Hawaii. Highest storm surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the eastern side of the Big Island.

In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after the release of NHC's suite of products, to incorporate the latest and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.

Trade winds will resume through the middle of next week in the wake of Lala's departure.

MARINE

Issued at 514 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 NE winds will strengthen areawide through Saturday as Tropical Storm Lala passes over or immediately south of the Big Island. The strongest winds are anticipated Saturday evening into Saturday night for the waters surrounding the Big Island and Maui. Winds peak for the waters surrounding Kauai and Oahu during Sunday. Hurricane Warnings, Tropical Storm Warnings, and Tropical Storm Watches are in effect. Expect dangerous conditions including torrential rainfall, a few thunderstorms, and high surf. Lala will track WNW through the weekend, clearing the western islands by Monday. Tuesday into the rest of the week, a return to easterly trades is expected.

Surf initially trends slowly upward for E shores in response to strengthening trades, but will quickly build tonight as Lala approaches. The High Surf Warning remains in effect for E facing shores of the Big Island and Maui as well as the SE facing coasts of the Puna and Ka'u Districts where surf will be maximized. Surf is also forecast to reach low end warning critiera for E facing shores of Oahu and the advisory threshold for Kauai. Accordingly, the High Surf Warning has been expanded to include Oahu and a High Surf Advisory has been issued for E facing shores of Kauai.

For N shores, anticipate choppy conditions with swell energy wrapping from the east through the weekend. For S shores, surf will remain below the advisory threshold and will slowly diminish until another long period south swell arrives late Sunday into Monday providing a small boost to existing surf.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 514 PM HST Fri Aug 14 2026 Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire weather concerns from Saturday into at least early next week. Temperature inversion will go away tonight across the Big Island and spread westward Saturday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Tropical Storm Warning for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain- Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West- Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch from Saturday evening through late Sunday night for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East- Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Warning from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for Koolau Windward-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana.

Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Maui Windward West- South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Hurricane Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai South.

Tropical Storm Warning for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kaiwi Channel- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.