textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Hurricane Nolo has begun its anticipated westward movement south of the Big Island. Localized strong and gusty winds will occur across all islands through Sunday, with the highest winds expected over and downwind of terrain on the Big Island and Maui. The remains a chance for flooding over portions of the Big Island and Maui today.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Based on surf observations in Puna, a High Surf Warning has been issued for south facing shores of the Puna and Kau Districts.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 1138 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 Hurricane Nolo, now located about 160 miles south of Big Island, has begun its long anticipated turn toward the west. A mid to upper level ridge building north of the state has initiated the westward turn of Nolo and is creating some stability from Maui to Kauai. A tight pressure gradient north of Nolo and the modest developing stability has created conditions conducive for downsloping winds within the strong trade wind flow. As a result, Wind Advisory conditions prevail on Oahu and Kauai, and portions of Maui County downwind of terrain are experiencing gusts of 60 mph or more, mainly in the area around Ukumehame and Olowalu. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for Maui County. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Big Island, where wind gusts over 60 mph are being observed in the Kohala Districts. A Flood Watch also remains in effect for Big Island and Maui. The flood threat is rapidly diminishing for Maui, and lower rain rates on windward and southeast Big Island have mitigated flood impacts so far. The flood threat for Big Island will diminish tonight.

As Nolo moves westward tonight and Sunday, the Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island and the Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County should be discontinued. However, strong and gusty trade winds will persist due to the tight pressure gradient north of Nolo. Expect the Wind Advisory to be expanded to cover much of Maui County and Big Island, while some leeward areas over and downwind of terrain on Maui and Big Island be placed under a High Wind Warning. The threat of heavy rainfall will diminish on Big Island overnight, with modest windward rainfall due across the rest of the state.

The forecast was nudged to the NBM starting Monday onwards. The mid level trough mentioned above will help to draw Nolo north and then northwestward early next week. At this time the forecast keeps Nolo west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light south- to- southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.

AVIATION

Issued at 1138 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 Gusty winds of 25 to 35 kt will continue across most of the area with isolated higher gusts associated with Hurricane Nolo. Scattered MVFR conditions are possible in showers, mainly across western areas and especially windward portions of Maui and Big Island, as well as Molokai and Lanai. Honolulu should see more isolated passing showers.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across entire area.

AIRMET Tango has been issued for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strong winds, with isolated severe turbulence also possible.

Tropical SIGMET Oscar covers Hurricane Nolo.

MARINE

Issued at 1138 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 As of 11 AM HST this morning, Hurricane Nolo was located near 16.7N 156.0W, approximately 160 miles south of South Point, and moving W at 4 knots. The Hurricane Watch for the waters surrounding the Big Island was dropped late this morning, but the Tropical Storm Warning for those waters remains in effect, as does the Tropical Storm Watch for the waters surrounding Maui County as Hurricane Nolo begins to accelerate slowly westward. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the remaining waters through this afternoon, with a Gale Watch in effect tonight through Sunday. Nolo is expected to remain south of the Hawaiian Islands, centered well outside of the coastal waters this weekend, but strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away from the storm itself. The hurricane will gain distance from the islands as it begins to turn northwest by early next week, leading to more limited impacts by Monday.

A combination of southeast swell originating from Hurricane Nolo and strengthening easterly trade winds is producing advisory level surf for east facing shores of Kauai and Oahu, and east and southeast facing shores of Maui, Molokai, and the Big Island today. Advisory level surf is expected to continue through Sunday, for which the High Surf Advisory remains in effect. By that point, Nolo will gain some distance from the islands to the southwest, leading to less direct swell impacts and weakening trade winds, which will decrease east and southeast shore surf below advisory criteria. A series of small, medium-period east swells are expected from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo in the East Pacific next week.

South facing shores can expect at least a moderate bump to surf as Hurricane Nolo tracks south of the islands through the weekend, with the best chance of seeing advisory conditions along south- facing shores of leeward Big Island and Maui on Sunday. As Nolo accelerates westward, the south swell it generates and sends up to the rest of the smaller islands is expected to be slightly smaller. A small, long period northwest swell also fills in this weekend and brings a small bump to north facing shores into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 1138 AM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 As Hurricane Nolo moves westward through the weekend, easterly winds will remain very strong and gusty over and downwind of terrain. Rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement in fuels, but the strong and gusty trade winds will produce moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas today. With drier and continued windy weather due on Sunday, near critical fire weather conditions are expected, with the only limiting factor remaining the readiness of fuels.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains- Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward- Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana- South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Southeast.

Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through Sunday afternoon for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters- Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.