textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to produce moderate to breezy trade winds today with periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas in the overnight and early morning hours. Hurricane Fausto remains on track to pass north of the Hawaiian Islands on Tuesday and Wednesday as a tropical storm. A drier and breezy trade wind weather pattern will return across the state from Thursday onward as Fausto drifts westward away from the Hawaiian Islands.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Satellite imagery reveals bands of showers over the eastern offshore waters from increased moisture associated with Hurricane Fausto, centered about 580 mi east of Hilo as of 5 am. These showers will begin to move onshore later today, increasing precipitation for windward and mauka locations this evening and overnight. Total rainfall amounts through Tuesday morning could amount to up to half an inch to one inch of rain for localized mauka areas. Dew points increase into the lower to mid 70s this evening and tonight, which will make for muggy conditions on Tuesday and Wednesday whilst Fausto passes north of the islands as a tropical storm.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 343 AM HST Mon Jul 27 2026

Currently (3am), satellite and radar imagery shows low clouds and scattered showers moving in on the trades. Showers are primarily impacting windward and mauka spots with a few showers making into leeward locations. High pressure northwest of the state will maintain trades today.

East of the state Hurricane Fausto continues moving west-northwest. Fausto is expected to track north of the state Tuesday into Wednesday. The environment ahead of Fausto grows more unfavorable on approach to the islands and we expect it to weaken into a tropical storm before arrival in the vicinity of the Hawaiian Islands. That said, we remain cautious at this stage that even subtle southern shifts in the track or delayed weakening trends may still produce changes to our island by island impacts. We strongly encourage the public to pay close attention to this passing storm system as weather impacts over the Hawaiian Islands will evolve the closer Fausto gets.

High confidence Fausto impacts include: high surf possibly above warning thresholds for east facing shores today through Tuesday. A High Surf Advisory is already in effect for east facing shores through Wednesday, with the possibility of an upgrade to a warning. Lesser confidence impacts include: strong winds to around 40 mph may develop near and north of the low center and possible heavy rain threats from Tuesday through Wednesday.

No time like the present to review your family hurricane preparedness plans, and ensure every household has at least a 14 day supply of food and water available if needed during this years active hurricane season.

As Fausto continues to move away from the state, a drier and more stable breezy trade wind pattern will fill in from Thursday onward.

AVIATION

Trades will weaken slightly and back towards the northeast today, then weaken further Tuesday. Typical trade wind showers with low ceilings are expected over windward and mauka areas with limited spillover into leeward areas. MVFR conditions are likely in heavier showers, but otherwise we will see VFR. Hurricane Fausto is east of the state moving WNW and is forecast to pass to the north Tuesday night through Wednesday night. TC SIGMET Sierra covers Fausto.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of the smaller islands. Conds may improve late this morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod low-level turbulence downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET may be dropped this afternoon as winds continue to decline.

MARINE

An overnight ASCAT pass revealed that locally breezy trade winds continue to prevail over the region, especially in the typically winder waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for these areas through this afternoon. The fresh to locally breezy trades will gradually shift to the NNE and diminish through the middle of the week in response to what is currently Hurricane Fausto passing north of the islands. However, it is likely that the Small Craft Advisory will need to be expanded due to seas greater than 10 feet for windward waters. The trades will then return to fresh and strong levels late this week into the weekend as the remnants of Fausto continue off to the west-northwest away from the state and strong high pressure builds to the north.

Nearshore buoys on the eastern side of the islands have shown an uptick this morning with the medium and long period energy. The High Surf Advisory for east facing shores was upgraded to a High Surf Warning as the buoys are running above model guidance and surf is expected to build through the day and tomorrow. The High Surf Warning is in effect through Wednesday afternoon. A Coastal Flood statement may be also be needed during the peak of the large surf for vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps, and other coastal infrastructure exposed to the large east swell. After a brief lull late Wednesday through Thursday, east shore surf will trend back up Friday into the weekend due to a combination of rising trade wind swell and a new long period east swell generated by Hurricane Genevieve.

The current long-period south swell will remain elevated today before slowly declining through the week.

Surf along N shores could also see some brief increase as Fausto (or its remnants) pass near the region Tuesday and Wednesday, then return to typical flat to tiny levels late Wednesday into the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kauai East- Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.