textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Locally breezy trade winds will remain through most of the weekend before easing a bit early next week. Fairly typical summertime weather is expected through the week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

No changes to the forecast this evening, and not anticipating any significant changes with the morning package.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 302 PM HST Thu Jul 16 2026 Dominant high pressure far north of the area will maintain locally breezy east-northeast trade winds through Saturday. By Sunday into early next week the high looks to get disrupted just a little by a front passing far north of the area. This will allow trade winds to weaken a little bit during the beginning of next week. Long range guidance then shows the high re-strengthening and allowing trades to become breezy again during the second half of next week. A ridge aloft will maintain stable conditions that will limit shower intensity and keep windward rainfall totals on most islands less than a quarter of an inch today. Aside from scattered afternoon showers on the Kona slopes, leeward areas will experience little rainfall.

A typical summertime shower distribution can be expected through the week and into next week, with mainly windward and mountain showers with afternoon showers for the Kona slopes. Windward and mountain showers will also have a slight boost during the overnight/early morning hours, with all showers remaining mostly light.

AVIATION

Issued at 302 PM HST Thu Jul 16 2026 Moderate trades will continue through the weekend. Low ceilings and showers will impact mainly windward and mauka locations. MVFR conditions possible in showers, otherwise VFR.

No AIRMETs in effect.

MARINE

Issued at 302 PM HST Thu Jul 16 2026

As high pressure far north of the islands edges slightly south and east through this weekend and interacts with a couple of lows and troughs passing to the south and southwest of Hawaii, trades will remain fresh to strong. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier channels and waters around Maui County and the Big Island through early Saturday morning. This SCA will likely need to be extended through at least Saturday night before weakening high pressure to the north allows winds to diminish once again into early next week.

A small, long-period west-northwest swell from former Super Typhoon Bavi will maintain similar surf heights along west-facing and north- facing shores tonight before gradually subsiding Friday into the weekend. This swell is overlapping for some west-facing shores with a gradually fading small, medium-period southwest Tasman swell and will continue to produce somewhat below average surf for south-facing shores as both swells fade. North-facing shores return to flat to tiny surf by this weekend with the loss of the west-northwest swell.

Surf returns to near average for south-facing shores late Friday with a reinforcing small, long-period south-southwest swell. This swell then fades through the weekend. Then a moderate, long-period south swell will arrive Sunday and build through early next week, bringing the potential for above-average (though sub-advisory) surf.

Surf along east-facing shores will gradually build up a notch and become choppy as trades strengthen through the weekend. Early to midweek next week, there's potential for a small to moderate, medium-period swell to arrive, generated from Tropical Storm Elida.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.