textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Locally breezy trade winds will remain through the weekend, easing a bit early next week. Typical trade wind showers will favor windward and mauka areas.

DISCUSSION

This afternoon, radar and satellite imagery shows a typical summertime trade wind pattern, with a larger amount of windward showers over the Big Island. Windward and mountain areas of all islands will see passing showers through tomorrow then a noticeable decrease is possible by Sunday as drier air moves through. Next week will see a usual summertime trade shower pattern, favoring windward and mountain areas as well as the overnight/early morning hours. The Kona slopes will also have their daily afternoon cloud and shower buildups.

High pressure will remain far north of the area will maintain light to locally breezy east- northeast trade winds through Saturday. By Sunday into early next week the high looks to get disrupted and move east. This will allow trade winds to weaken a little bit during the beginning of next week. Long range guidance then shows the high re- strengthening and allowing trades to become breezy again during the second half of next week. A ridge aloft will maintain stable conditions that will keep most showers light to moderate.

AVIATION

AIRMET Sierra is posted for tempo mountain obscurations above 2500 feet this afternoon for the Big Island due to convective cloud build ups and showers. Expect these clouds to dissipate overnight with AIRMET Sierra cancelled at that time.

Otherwise, moderate trades will continue through the weekend. Passing clouds and showers will be focused over the typical windward and mauka locations. VFR conditions are expected to prevail, with some windward MVFR conditions in clouds and showers.

MARINE

As high pressure far north of the islands edges slightly south and east through this weekend and interacts with a couple of lows and troughs passing to the south and southwest of Hawaii, trades will remain fresh to locally strong. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island through Saturday afternoon. Winds will begin to diminish again late this weekend as high pressure to the north starts to weaken, which should eliminate the need for a SCA Sunday into early next week.

A small, medium-period west-northwest swell will gradually fade today into the weekend, causing surf along north-facing shores to drop to flat/tiny by the weekend. Surf along south facing shores will remain elevated keeping levels near average through Saturday. A larger, moderate south swell is expected to build Sunday through early next week, bringing potentially High Surf Advisory level conditions Monday and Tuesday. As this swell slowly fades into the middle of next week, another moderate south swell is expected next Thursday.

East facing shores will remain choppy through Saturday and will gradually drop as trade winds ease. Energy from Tropical Storm Elida may reach the islands during the middle of next week bringing a slight boost for east facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.