textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy to locally windy trade wind pattern persists through the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will periodically deliver clouds and showers to windward and mauka areas. Wetter weather is possible this weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 917 AM HST Tue Feb 17 2026

No major changes to the forecast this morning, as things remain on track. Continuing to monitor wind trends throughout the day for possible extension or expansion of wind headlines into Wednesday as gradient-driven strong trades are anticipated to continue.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM HST Tue Feb 17 2026

Strong subsidence in full swing this morning as evidenced by the rapidly strengthening and lowering trade wind inversion on the most recent soundings out of Lihue. This subsidence is driven by building mid-level ridging and strong dry advection in the 850-700mb layer supporting dewpoint depressions on the order of 50C at 700mb. This supports current wind gust observations ranging between 35 mph along the Waianae Coast of Oahu to 40-50 mph in the lee of the West Maui Mountains. Large scale conditions will favor maintenance of downsloping through today. Meanwhile, the latest ASCAT pass indicates widespread sustained wind observations just shy of 30 kts over the open water immediately upstream of the islands, suggesting that the full suite of guidance is under-simulating winds by several knots. No reason to alter the existing Wind Advisory at this time. Leeward Maui and Oahu will be monitored for potential areal expansion as the morning progresses. Active subsidence will ease tonight into Wednesday, though the mid-level dry airmass will remain in place in support of a strong inversion. Gradient winds are modeled to undergo little change during the next 36 hours, an extension in time to the Wind Advisory will be a decision point today as well. Strong and stable trades continue through Thursday before static stability begins to diminish on Friday.

The week will otherwise be characterized by a rather slowly evolving large scale pattern that will ultimately lead to potential for several days of wet and unstable trades this weekend into early next week. Presently, upper troughing and convergent SE flow in the low levels maintains a steady moisture feed into a complex of thunderstorms centered near 15N/145W. Pressure falls and deepening cyclonic flow associated with evolving troughing west of the Hawaiian Islands will allow this moist SE flow to extend northwestward over the islands Friday into the weekend. Saturday and Sunday potentially feature a round of moderate dynamic forcing coupled with adequate left exit support superposed with moderate to strong moist trades in the lower levels. A flash flooding threat may develop during this time, but forecast confidence will be largely contingent on the expected strength of trades which will in turn modulate forward motion of showers. At this time, guidance indicate the islands residing along the gradient between stronger trades to the east and light SE flow to the west with plenty of room for error in either direction. Mid-level lapse rates are adequate but not impressive suggesting thunderstorms remain nothing more than an isolated threat. Certainly a scenario worth monitoring as the end of the week draws closer.

AVIATION

Issued at 917 AM HST Tue Feb 17 2026

Gusty trade winds will continue today, with light shower activity possible along windward sides of the islands. Conditions may briefly degrade to MVFR under windward showers.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 7000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the gusty winds expected today.

MARINE

Issued at 322 AM HST Tue Feb 17 2026

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift farther south through Wednesday and then weaken from Thursday onward. This closer proximity to the islands will keep strong and gusty trade winds in the regional forecast through at least Wednesday. A Gale Warning was issued for windier waters and channels around the island of Maui as satellite winds showed a large area of gale force winds last night. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters outside of the gale warning area. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds will develop from Thursday into Friday as the high weakens briefly, before another strong high develops far north of the state later this weekend.

Surf heights along east facing shorelines will remain solidly within High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria through Wednesday, driven primarily by a large and persistent fetch of fresh to strong trade winds upstream of the islands. The HSA will continue through Tuesday night and an extension through Wednesday is looking likely as strong upstream trades are expected to persist.

Surf will remain small along north, west and south facing shores through Saturday, as no significant swells are forecast into the weekend.

In the extended range forecast, forerunners from the next moderate to large, long period north (010-020 degree) swell appear to arrive by late Sunday night, building swiftly to advisory levels through next week Monday, and then slowly declining into the middle of next week. A Harbor Surge Marine Weather Statement may be required for north facing harbors, especially for Kahului and Hilo harbor.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Kahoolawe-Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast- Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Waianae Mountains- Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.