textproduct: Honolulu

UPDATE

Quiet evening for the islands under partially cloudy skies and light breezes. Resident moisture is near to slightly below normal by early May standards with weak troughing northeast of the state providing just enough large scale forcing to suggest the occasional shower passing through within light northerlies. The state lies in a col, or a height weakness region, between two surface highs far northwest and northeast of the island chain. This translates to a slack surface pressure gradient through tonight whereas localized drainage or land breezes will be the dominant wind. The presence of this vicinity northeast surface trough, with approaching weak mid to upper level troughing from the northwest within a somewhat moistened environment, will ensure thickened mauka clouds and more frequent light precipitation within higher elevation. Tomorrow will be another partly cloudy day with thicker clouds and more frequent showers being confined to windward upslope regions and higher terrain. While feeling a touch more humid due to the lack of moderate trades, thicker cloud cover should keep many communities in the mid to upper 70s for the majority of the afternoon. High pressure to the northwest will move across to the north the next couple of days. This will assist in tightening up the pressure gradient over the islands and strengthening trade winds. Trades will gradually make their return tomorrow and strengthen to more moderate magnitudes this weekend.

SYNOPSIS

The light winds and humid conditions we have had (due to a weak surface trough) will end tonight. Interior clouds and a few showers will continue into the evening hours, followed by partial clearing overnight. Light trade winds will return Thursday into Friday, bringing a more typical pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers with a few afternoon showers spilling over into leeward areas. A slight increase in shower coverage remains possible Friday night through Saturday night. Stronger trade winds and more stable conditions arrive early next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 343 PM HST Wed May 6 2026/

Skies were mostly cloudy across the state this afternoon, with only a few exceptions. Radar shows isolated showers, mainly over south central Oahu and northeast Molokai. Winds were on the lighter side as trades are just starting to build back into the region. North to northeast winds were seen across Kauai, Oahu, and Maui County, with variable winds on the Big Island.

A weak surface trough has moved through most of the state was centered over the Big Island this afternoon, and will make it past the Big Island this evening. This will allow trades to build in across the entire state tonight and on into Thursday. Initially, wind speeds will be light to moderate, but stronger winds will arrive this weekend (most likely Saturday night into Sunday). Once this increase arrives, winds should be moderate to breezy well into next week.

The return of the trades will also bring back the typical pattern of mainly windward and mauka showers, occasionally reaching leeward areas. PW values will generally be around an inch, which means that heavy rain is unlikely. There will be a short-lived exception from Friday night into Saturday night when values are forecast to rise to around 1.3 inches. This increase is due to the combination of a weak upper level trough and a band of low-level moisture. During this period, there is an increased chance of brief moderate to heavy rain.

Long range models show the possibility of even stronger trades developing late next week and beyond, but we will need to get closer in time before we can have reasonable confidence in this solution.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.