textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Tropical Storm Nolo will continue to accelerate westward away from the state over the next several days. Elevated moisture content being drawn up in the southeast flow will maintain a wetter pattern for Hawaii through the end of the week. Then drier trades are expected to return over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Trailing tropical moisture embedded in Tropical Storm Nolo's circulation brought areas of showers mainly across Oahu late this morning and early this afternoon. Showers were moving from south to north affecting first the southern part of Oahu, including Honolulu and extending across the rest of the island. Rainfall accumulations were between half to one inch in some areas. By mid afternoon, most showers were moving across the coastal waters. This weather pattern will continue through tomorrow, but with the main activity shifting more towards Kauai beginning late this evening into Friday morning. Latest model guidance are showing a drier air mass moving in as Nolo continues moving away from the area. As the influence of Tropical Storm Nolo diminishes, high pressure system will take control of the weather locally. Dry and pleasant weather conditions are expected for this upcoming weekend.

Early next week, the trades will weaken in response to an approaching surface trough from the northeast and then will weaken further heading into midweek as broad troughing develops northwest of the state. In this lighter flow, land and sea breezes will become increasingly more prevalent with clearing expected overnight and clouds and a few showers developing over leeward and interior areas with daytime heating each afternoon.

AVIATION

Moderate southeast winds will continue through tonight into Friday across the state as Tropical Storm Nolo moves away. Showers loosely associated with Nolo will continue to track over Kauai and Oahu tonight with MVFR conditions likely tonight into Friday with brief periods of IFR conditions possible.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet is in effect for all islands. Conditions may improve overnight for the Eastern half of the state as land-breezes develop, pushing clouds and showers offshore.

MARINE

Moderate southeasterly winds will prevail across the region through Friday as Tropical Storm Nolo continues to slowly drift westward away from the Hawaiian Islands. Gentle to fresh east to northeast trades will fill back in across the waters this weekend, lasting well into next week.

The moderate, short to medium period west to southwest swell originating from Tropical Storm Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai through Friday night. Additionally, a small background south swell continues for other islands, holding surf mostly steady along south facing shores. A new small long period south swell, originating from a large fetch of gale force winds southeast of New Zealand earlier this week, is forecast to arrive beginning Sunday afternoon and peak Monday through Wednesday.

A slight boost in north shore surf is expected on Friday due to a brief, short to medium period northerly swell building into the region. Additional rounds of tiny northwest swell energy will reach north and west facing shores early next week as the storms tracking near the Aleutian Islands become increasingly active. Surf along east facing shores will see a slight boost and become more choppy as easterly trades build back into the region this weekend.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 337 PM HST Thu Oct 1 2026

Fire weather concerns will be low over the next couple of days due to the lighter southeast winds bringing high relative humidities and scattered to numerous showers to the state. Drier air is expected to be ushered in over the weekend as moderate to locally breezy east-northeasterly trades return, which may increase the fire weather concern slightly to moderate levels. However, winds are expected to decrease early to midweek next week, lowering the fire weather concerns once again.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.