textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to breezy trade winds can be expected through the weekend and likely into the first half of next week, pushing showers over mostly windward and mountain areas. These showers will be more active during the night time and early morning hours. A mid level and upper level trough could occasionally allow some of these showers to be a little heavier than normal.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Forecast looks on track compared to observations and guidance. No updates expected for tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 433 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2026 An upper level low centered several hundred miles north of Hawaii is producing isolated, but enhanced trade wind showers. Surface high pressure centered far north of the state is driving breezy easterly trade winds which will continue to push these showers through the islands over the next several days. Nighttime and early morning hours along windward slopes will be the prime time and location for the majority of the showers. Isolated leeward showers will also be possible across the smaller islands, and along the Kona slopes during the afternoons. The surface high will remain nearly stationary into next week while the upper low drifts slowly west to linger over the Northwest Hawaiian Islands this weekend into the coming week.

Long range guidance suggests another influx of moisture arriving next week with dew points forecast to rise above 70 by Monday. At least the first half of the week looks to be humid, with increased chances for precipitation and heavier rain showers, especially by mid-week as a low-level trough tracks east to west across the region. There are some differences in model solutions regarding trade wind speeds due to the forecasted strength and position of the high pressure to the north, especially by mid-week.

AVIATION

Moderate to breezy trades will persist through Friday. Low clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas as batches of moisture move in on the trades. Expect MVFR conditions within showers and VFR elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for windward sections of the Big Island. Conditions may linger into the morning due to the ongoing and upstream showers. The mountain obscurations for the kona slopes have been cancelled due to conditions improving as the land breeze developed.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds and will continue through Friday.

MARINE

Issued at 433 PM HST Thu Jun 25 2026 High pressure to the north will dominate through at least the first half of next week, keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds in place across Hawaiian waters. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the typically windier waters around Maui and the Big Island. Although the SCA goes through Friday afternoon, it will likely be extended through the weekend.

A small, long period south swell has peaked, producing head high to overhead surf heights at most exposed south shore surf breaks. This swell will slowly ease Friday and Saturday. Another small, long period south swell energy will fill in Saturday and peak by Sunday before gradually declining early next week. This swell should boost surf heights back up to near normal.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy into the weekend as breezy trades persist. Surf heights along north facing shores will remain small to tiny through the first half of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.