textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to locally breezy trades will remain in place through the remainder of the week. Stable and dry conditions will be the main theme the next several days. Typical summer-like, albeit infrequent, windward and/or upslope mauka quick-passing light showers.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

A tranquil mid-week evening follows a quiet afternoon with very similar weather forecast for the islands these next few days. Upper and mid level ridging centered far northwest of the state has its southeastern axis draped over the island chain. This has asserted its subsident influence over us. The surface is void of any significant features that would indicate near or short term deviation from the pattern we have been recently experiencing across the region. Afternoon visible satellite imagery showed every island having its own distinct downstream plume associated with it. More clear skies than cloud cover and not much precipitation on the radar both signs of this stable trade weather within a drier air mass. The next couple of days will remain less humid and generally more pleasant under this continued moderate trade flow. Locally stronger winds gusting to near 25 to 30 mph will be commonplace atop higher terrain and through lee- side valleys and/or slopes. Most rain will measure in the hundredths of an inch with the greatest rainfall occurring within windward upslope areas, in particular the Hilo, Puna and Ka'u Districts on Big Island and along the eastern slopes of Maui's Haleakala. The remaining smaller islands will experience infrequent, windward exposure-focused rain. Quick-hitting light showers trapped within the trade belt will likely be more recurrent during the nocturnal hours than during the day.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 410 PM HST Wed Aug 26 2026 Current satellite and radar imagery shows limited shower activity and drier conditions prevail statewide. Windward and mauka areas as well as Kona slopes of Big Island continue to be the primary areas of cloud cover and occasional light showers. Drier air is allowing dewpoints to sit between mid 60s to lower 70s, allowing some relief from previous muggy weather.

A stagnant and strong high pressure system far north of the state will continue to drive moderate to breezy trade winds through the weekend. Winds could potentially weaken by the middle of next week due to a weak surface trough that approaches the state from the east. A trade wind inversion resides between 5,500 and 6,500, but is expected to lift slightly by this weekend, and is expected to modestly increase showers. By the middle of next week, global models depict a weak low level trough moving through from the east. Details regarding timing have been inconsistent between the models, so for now we can expect a slight enhancement of windward and mountain showers.

NHC continues to monitor several disturbances in the eastern and central Pacific that have potential to develop in the next several days to a week. These potential systems play a role in the long range forecast, but it is too early to know if the state will be impacted. We will continue to monitor the tropics, especially the area between 130W and 140W.

AVIATION

Issued at 410 PM HST Wed Aug 26 2026

Moderate trades expected through the period. Low cigs locally below 2000 ft MSL in SHRA over windward and mauka slopes, best chance through tonight. MVFR conds in heavier SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turb lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

MARINE

Issued at 410 PM HST Wed Aug 26 2026

Moderate to locally strong trades will persist as a broad high pressure remains far north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory for the typically windier waters around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended through Thursday.

A small, long period south swell will continue to fill in overnight and peak Thursday afternoon into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell. A small, medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle may fill in Friday, peak Saturday before slowly fading into early next week.

Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny to flat.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.