textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds and showers through today. Clouds and showers will increase Tuesday through Thursday as Nolo passes to the west with rain bands along the south and east side of the storm encroaching Kauai and Oahu. Nolo moves away to the northwest by this weekend with trades filling in.

DISCUSSION

Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds and showers today across the state. A band of showery cumulus clouds is running nearly parallel and just north of the island chain. A few of these showers may impact windward Kauai and Oahu through the day, but conditions elsewhere should remain dry.

Major Hurricane Nolo (cat. 4) is around 420 miles southwest of Honolulu this morning as has made it's turn to the northwest. Main impacts in the short-term will be the breezy, but weakening winds across the state due to the pressure difference between Nolo and the subtropical high far to the northeast, and the southwest swell directed towards the islands. Nolo will weaken down to a cat. 1 hurricane and stall around 250 to 300 miles west of Kauai on Tuesday night and Wednesday, then continue on a more west northwesterly track away from the state through the second half of the week.

Winds will remain brisk and gradually veer southeasterly as Nolo gains latitude, then continue out of the southeast through the end of the week. Rain bands along Nolo's eastern flank will spread out enough to likely bring an increase in rainfall across Kauai and Oahu, as the southeasterly flow directs showers over populated areas of both islands. Guidance shows varying amounts and lengths of time that the bands will impact the western end of the state, and will ultimately depend on Nolo's eventual path over the next few days.

By this weekend, trade winds are forecast to build in bringing drier and more stable conditions again.

AVIATION

Winds have diminished, in comparison to the last few days, but breezy trade winds will continue today with gusts between 20 to 25 knots expected. Winds further decrease overnight tonight into early tomorrow morning as Hurricane Nolo moves farther away from the state. Any trade showers that develop will be confined to windward and mountain locations with low confidence in showers extending beyond those areas.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed through mid- week.

MARINE

Strong to near gale force trade winds and large, rough seas will gradually diminish through tonight as high pressure far north of the state begins to weaken and Hurricane Nolo, several hundred miles southwest of the Hawaiian Islands, moves farther west. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all Hawaiian coastal waters (with the exception of Maalaea Bay) has been extended through tonight. Beyond that point, trade winds are expected to weaken below small craft advisory for most waters. Higher seas and strong winds may persist for favored channels and waters near Kauai, where the current National Hurricane Center forecast has Nolo tracking around 230 nautical miles west of on Wednesday. Expect moderate to locally strong winds to veer out of the east-southeast to southeast during this time. Winds will gradually ease and back more easterly by Thursday as Nolo moves westward away from the islands.

A mix of long to medium period south-southwest swell and building short to medium south swell from a powerful Hurricane Nolo now located southwest of the Hawaiian Islands will bring advisory level surf to south facing shores of all islands and west facing shores of the Big Island today. The hurricane-generated swell will gradually shift southwest, then west, as Nolo tracks northwest roughly parallel to the islands through Wednesday. While the forecast currently shows this swell gradually decreasing, and in particular, falling below advisory criteria tonight, Nolo is forecast to remain a major hurricane through Tuesday, which could maintain advisory level surf for longer than currently depicted. By mid-week, these swells will originate from the west and be diminishing as the hurricane will be weaker and it begins to track away from the islands.

East shore surf will slowly decline through Wednesday as trade winds diminish. However, small, medium period swells from distant East Pacific hurricanes will maintain moderate surf during the remainder of the week. On north facing shores, a small medium period swell will fade through Wednesday. Some wrapping west swell from Hurricane Nolo is possible by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Dry and stable with breezy east southeast winds expected through through today, with a gradual increase in humidity through midweek. Moisture drawn northward along the southern and eastern sides of Nolo will increase rain chances across the western part of the state. Fire conditions will improve statewide over the next couple days as winds weaken and humidity levels rise.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Waianae Coast-Kahoolawe-Maui Leeward West-Kona-Kohala- Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Molokai Leeward South-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters except Maalaea Bay-