textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds are expected through Tuesday. Clouds and showers will be focused over windward and mauka areas, with some spilling over to leeward areas. Winds are expected to increase again Wednesday through Thursday as a new strong surface high settles north to northwest of the state. A slight increase in windward showers is forecast late in the week as a band of moisture moves from north to south across the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return over the weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

No changes to the forecast this evening, and not expecting any significant changes with the morning package.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 355 PM HST Mon Nov 9 2026 Radar showed isolated showers moving across windward and mauka areas, with an occasional spill over into leeward Oahu. Skies were mostly cloudy windward and mauka, and mostly sunny in most leeward areas. Winds were averaging 10-20 mph, with many coastal and higher terrain areas gusting 20-35 mph.

To our north, an upper level ridge and associated surface high will move from west to east through Friday. A new surface ridge will replace the first over the coming weekend. A narrow band of enhanced moisture is forecast by the latest operational runs of both the GFS and EC to move south over the state late Thursday into Friday. This should create a slight increase in showers through that period. Otherwise, expect trade winds and accompanying showers through the week, with wind speeds decreasing tonight and Tuesday, then increasing notably Wednesday. In fact, a Wind Advisory may be needed for some areas Wednesday. After that, winds should be moderate to locally breezy over the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Tropical Storm Pena will continue to move west, away from the state. No other tropical activity is expected.

AVIATION

Issued at 355 PM HST Mon Nov 9 2026 Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the day tomorrow with a drier airmass in place. Isolated showers along windward areas may produce brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities, especially during the overnight hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7000 feet within the lee of higher terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days as locally breezy trade winds persist.

MARINE

Issued at 355 PM HST Mon Nov 9 2026 Fresh trade winds will continue through Tuesday as a front quickly approaches from the northwest. Trade winds will overrun this weakening feature and wind speeds will strengthen again Tuesday night. The remnant trough will move in Thursday, spreading clouds and showers across the coastal waters.

A northwest swell will continue through Tuesday night and keep moderate surf in the forecast along north and west facing shores. A much larger northwest to north-northwest swell was generated by a gale force low developing east of Kamchatka. This large north- northwest swell may bring warning level surf heights to exposed north and west facing shores building in through the day on Wednesday, peaking Wednesday night, decreasing to advisory levels on Thursday, and then falling below advisory levels by Friday. A small northwest reinforcement is expected to arrive this weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will decrease as winds taper through Tuesday, but will ramp up again by Wednesday through Friday as wind speeds pick back up. A small south swell will decline through the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 355 PM HST Mon Nov 9 2026

Near critical fire weather conditions will hold for the next several days. Breezy trade winds will gradually ease tonight and Tuesday. Relative humidity values will decrease to near threshold values Tuesday and Wednesday, and winds are forecast to be close to threshold Wednesday. Conditions during the second half of the week are expected to reach near-threshold values again as winds increase and we should have a relatively dry and stable airmass. Temperature inversion heights should remain between 6,000 and 8,000 feet from Maui County to the Big Island.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.