textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

High pressure building north of the state will strengthen trade winds into the moderate to locally breezy range through Wednesday. Brief passing showers will favor windward and mountain areas, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. From Thursday into the weekend, winds will ease slightly and veer to a more east-southeast direction, shifting shower activity toward southeast-facing slopes of the Big Island and Maui, as well as some interior areas. Overall rainfall amounts are expected to remain limited.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 926 AM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

This mornings radar and satellite imagery show a band of mid- to high-level clouds streaming across the state from the west- southwest. Some of these clouds are converging along a boundary over the central islands, producing a few light showers. Aside from that, low-level cloud cover and shower activity remain fairly limited, with just a few showers moving into windward and mauka areas on the gradually strengthening east-southeast trade winds. Rainfall has been minimal overall, with only a few hundredths of an inch recorded across portions of Oahu over the past couple of hours. The mid- and high-level clouds, along with their spotty light showers, should gradually thin and shift eastward through the day and into tonight.

The broader forecast remains on track. Trade winds will continue to fill back in and strengthen through midweek, then veer slightly out of the east-southeast toward the end of the week and into the weekend. No changes were needed with this mornings update. Please see the earlier discussion for more details on the extended forecast.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

The large band of high level cirrus clouds and mid level alto stratus clouds currently over the islands will continue to slowly diminish through the day. Trade winds will blow into the region and strengthen into the moderate to locally breezy range through Wednesday.

A slight decrease in wind speeds and a shift from a more east- southeast direction remains in the forecast from Thursday onward as another cold front approaches Hawaii from the northwest, weakening and lifting the ridge near the islands northward. Local scale sea breeze winds will develop along terrain sheltered slopes of each island as the large scale winds weaken. Limited shower activity will prevail into next weekend with only brief showers possible.

Looking out into the long range forecast outlook. Our next best chance for unstable statewide rainfall may develop by early next week in southerly wind flow as another cold front moves into the Hawaiian Islands from the west. Stay tuned.

AVIATION

Issued at 926 AM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

A weakening trough will keep mid and high level clouds in place today with some disorganized showers in the morning before trade winds build in during the afternoon. Once trade winds return, drier and more stable air will fill in and showers will focus back over typical windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions may occur with showers, otherwise VFR is expected.

AIRMET Tango is in effect across the islands due to mid-upper level turbulence from FL200-360 and from 140-FL200 for Molokai through Maui. These conditions are expected to gradually weaken and move down to the lower flight levels through the day. Light icing is also possible in cloud layer 120-180 and will likely decrease later today.

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM HST Mon Mar 2 2026

A cold front dissipated into a trough and will linger just northwest of the area today. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will build in tonight as surface ridge strengthens to the north, and a Small Craft Advisory will likely be needed for the typically windy channels and waters of Maui County and the Big Island by that time. Winds will maintain strength but veer east southeast towards the end of the week as another weather system approaches from the west.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will remain slightly elevated, but still well below advisory levels, today as a moderate, medium period northwest swell (310 degrees) continues to impact the islands. Surf along north- and west-facing shores will then gradually decrease on Tuesday and remain small though the rest of the week, with another small northwest bump expected this weekend.

Surf along exposed east-facing shores will be a bit elevated due to a short period northeast (40 degrees) swell that will maintain today, then decline Tuesday. However, as this northeast swell declines, short period choppy conditions are expected to return as fresh trade winds redevelop and expand upstream of the state.

Surf along south-facing shores will remain small to tiny, with no significant swells forecast for at least the next several days.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.