textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A weak trough will exit west of the state early this morning, however some showery conditions will linger over Kauai through the morning hours, while rather dry conditions prevail over the rest of the state. The trough will dissipate west of the islands tonight and Monday, with trade winds increasing to breezy levels by late Monday or Monday night, and continuing through late this week. A fairly typical trade wind pattern will become established in the wake of the trough, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly at night and during the early morning hours.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

An area of stronger showers has moved off to the west of Kauai as expected, but additional isolated to scattered trade wind showers are still forecast for the remainder of the day on all islands. These showers will be mainly windward and mauka. Otherwise, we should see partly cloudy skies for most folks. No updates are needed at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 300 AM HST Sun May 10 2026 Currently at the surface, a weak trough of low pressure is located over Kauai, while a ridge axis is positioned several hundred miles north of the island chain. Breezy northeasterly trade winds are present to the west of the trough, while moderate east-northeasterly trades prevail to its east. Infrared satellite imagery shows a mix of high and low clouds resulting in partly to mostly cloudy conditions across the state. Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers moving into windward sections of Oahu and Kauai, with much fewer showers moving into windward areas of the other islands. Main short term focus revolves around trade wind trends and rain chances during the next couple of days.

The weak trough of low pressure will continue to push slowly west today, exiting to the west of Kauai prior to daybreak this morning. Showers will be most prevalent over windward sections of Kauai this morning, with a decrease expected for the afternoon hours. Elsewhere, rather dry trade wind weather is expected today, with only a few mainly windward and mauka showers. Winds will ease following the passage of the trough, with moderate trades then prevailing statewide through the remainder of the day.

The weak trough will dampen out west of the state tonight and Monday, while a ridge of high pressure remains in place several hundred miles north of the state. This will bring a gradual increase in trade wind speeds, with breezy conditions becoming established across the entire island chain by late Monday or Monday night. Breezy conditions are then expected to hold through late in the week as high pressure remains firmly in place to the north of the state. A fairly typical trade wind pattern is expected to prevail through late this week, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

AVIATION

Stable and mostly dry trade wind weather is expected today with trades increasing into the moderate to locally breezy category later this morning into the afternoon. The one exception is over Kauai, where we will continue to see showers with periods of MVFR conditions.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over Kauai and will likely continue through much of the day and into tonight.

AIRMET Tango will likely be needed for low-level turb with trades strengthening this afternoon into Monday.

MARINE

Issued at 300 AM HST Sun May 10 2026

A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the Hawaiian Islands this week with easterly trade winds blowing in the fresh to locally strong range lasting into next weekend.

A small medium period northwest swell will maintain small surf heights along north and west facing shores today, shifting out of the north to north northwest direction by tonight and then fading out by Tuesday. The next small long period northwest swell pulses into the region by Wednesday afternoon, peaking by Thursday morning, then decreasing from Friday onward.

Small long period south swell energy will fade today with two additional small long period background south swells moving in on Monday and Thursday night. Surf along east facing shores will remain below normal today, with increasing surf heights peaking by Wednesday as trade winds strengthen.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.