textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate trades will gradually weaken through Saturday, allowing for the development of localized sea breezes which will bring clouds and a few showers to leeward and interior areas each afternoon, followed by clearing with land breezes overnight. Moderate trades will return early next week, bringing back the typical windward and mauka showers. A slight weakening of the trade wind flow may unfold for the latter part of next week.

UPDATE

No major changes to the forecast this evening. A fairy dry light to moderate trade wind pattern is expected over the next few days.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 346 PM HST Thu Jun 11 2026 Light to moderate trades will gradually weaken through Saturday as the subtropical high to the northeast gets pushed farther away, displaced by a low pressure system developing to the far north and advancing toward the Gulf of Alaska. These lighter background winds across the state will allow for localized sea and land breeze cycles to develop, bringing afternoon leeward and interior showers, followed by clearing overnight. The sea breeze cycle already kicked off earlier this afternoon, with showers developing most notably over leeward Oahu and the Kona slopes of the Big Island. With drier air filtering over the state this afternoon and lingering through the weekend, expect shower activity to be somewhat limited during this period.

Moderate to locally breezy trades gradually return Sunday night into early next week as ridging builds back in from the northeast. Pockets of deeper moisture caught up in the redeveloping trade wind flow will bring periodic upticks in windward and mauka showers, particularly Sunday night into Monday.

Another developing low to the north may cause winds to weaken slightly across the islands for the latter half of the work week. An area of enhanced moisture will move in from the east around the same time, boosting dew points and bringing an uptick in shower activity, particularly across the eastern end of the state. Most of these showers will likely be focused over windward and mauka areas, but if the winds become light enough, there may also be some isolated sea breeze showers over leeward and interior areas.

AVIATION

Trade winds will become gradually weaker through Saturday as the surface pressure gradient over the islands weakens. Some drier air filled in earlier today, which should lead to mostly VFR conditions through Friday. While mostly VFR conditions are expected, a few showers with some MVFR ceilings will be possible mainly over windward and mauka areas tonight. Due to the lighter trades in place, isolated leeward showers will be possible Friday afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 346 PM HST Thu Jun 11 2026 Expect light to moderate easterly winds to develop tonight and hold through Saturday as a weak front passes far north of the state. Moderate to fresh easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as a surface ridge strengthens north of the area.

A mix of small pulses of south-southwest swells is still anticipated for tonight through Friday, recharging near average surf along south facing shores.

Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is peaking at the Samoa Buoy this afternoon at around 15 feet 20 seconds. Surf heights are expected to gradually build locally Saturday and peak Sunday into Monday before slowly declining through the first half of next week. This swell will also coincide with the peak monthly tides and will lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. A marine weather statement is also anticipated due to the threat of harbor surges. South shore surf will remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of more overlapping southerly swells.

East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the the weekend as trades ease, then pick up a notch next week as more breezy trades return. No significant swells expected elsewhere.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.