textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Strong and gusty trades are expected on Monday with drier conditions across the state as a weak front passes near the state tonight. Trades should ease slightly on Tuesday, but breezy to locally strong trades will likely persist through rest of the week. Passing showers will ride in with the breezy trades throughout the week and will mainly be focused over windward and mauka areas.

DISCUSSION

00Z sounding from Lihue and Hilo shows drier air starting to trickle in over the western end of the state with abundant moisture and unsettled conditions over the far eastern end of the state this afternoon. Showers are expected to continue over windward parts of Maui and the Big Island through the afternoon and evening.

A 1028 mb high- pressure system building far north of the area will bring breezy to strong north- northeast to northeast trade winds across the state this evening and tonight. Daytime ASCAT imagery showed a wide fetch of strong northerly winds behind the front, while visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows showery cumulus clouds just ahead of it. Expect passing showers tonight as a weak front pushes through the state.

With the inversion lowering on Monday, gusty winds are expected downwind of terrain. Winds could approach Wind Advisory levels (gusts to 50 mph) on Monday; however, wind probabilities on the 12Z REFS show only a 30% chance for 50 mph gusts in the windier zones of Maui, Lanai, and Kohala on the Big Island. As a result, we have held off on issuing a Wind Advisory for now, though isolated gusts near 50 mph remain possible in the windier zones of Maui and the Big Island on Monday. Expect wind gusts in the 40 to 45 mph range on Monday. With drier air following behind the front, any showers should be on the lighter side by Monday afternoon.

Trade winds should ease slightly on Tuesday, but generally breezy to locally strong trades will persist through most of the week. While stable conditions are expected to continue, trade wind moisture will bring passing showers to windward areas throughout the week, with isolated showers reaching select leeward areas as well, particularly around Tuesday night through Thursday. During this time, showery frequency could be slightly higher than normal over select windward areas.

AVIATION

Remnants of a frontal boundary will continue pushing through the state before drier air settles in by late tonight. Moisture still resides between Oahu and Big Island, producing scattered light to moderate showers. MVFR conditions are expected within showers. Later tonight, showers will become less widespread and more focused over windward and mountain areas. Winds are strengthening out of the NE, and will become breezy to strong statewide tonight.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations for portions of all islands. Conditions will likely improve over leeward areas tonight, but windward and mountain areas may still see mountain obscurations due to lingering moisture and showers embedded within the trade wind flow.

AIRMET Tango is currently in effect for moderate turbulence between FL210 and FL280 over Kauai and Oahu due to an upper level disturbance. This AIRMET will remain in effect through tonight, and likely be expanded to include other island and higher altitudes as the disturbance progresses through the island chain. Strengthening trade winds will warrant AIRMET Tango to also cover moderate turbulence downwind of terrain statewide beginning tonight as well.

MARINE

A trough to the west of the islands will continue to drift southward as high pressure builds north of the islands bringing fresh to strong northeast winds across the region. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal waters through Monday night for a combination of mainly winds and seas above 10 feet in several exposed zones to the north-northwest swell. Moderate to locally strong northeast trade winds are expected through most of the forecast period.

Surf along north facing shores will continue to see High Surf Advisory level conditions through Monday with the swell peaking tonight before slowly dropping Monday. Offshore NDBC buoy 51101 continues to show long period energy in the 14 to 16 second bands. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Kauai and Oahu and north facing shores of Maui County through Monday afternoon. Another advisory level northwest swell is possible Thursday into Friday, and moderate to large surf action appears to continue into the weekend.

The current moderate, medium period south swell will remain elevated this evening before declining on Monday. South shore surf will be tiny through much of the week with little southerly background energy reaching the islands. East- facing shores will see an increase in trade wind swell as strong northeast winds fill in Monday. Surf along east- facing shores will stay choppy as trades sustain through much of the week. A north- northeast trade wind swell (around 30 degrees) this week will reach moderate levels, but remains short- period, so the threat of harbor surges appears less likely.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 331 PM HST Sun Nov 1 2026

Recent wet weather has lowered fire concern due to moist fuels. While fuels remain moist, strong and gusty trades developing tonight into Monday with some drier air will produce moderate fire weather conditions on Monday. While, breezy to locally strong trades will likely persist through rest of the week, the driest day looks to be on Monday, thus low to moderate fire weather concerns are expected through rest of the week. The temperature inversion will continue to lower tonight into Monday as drier air moves in aloft and will range from 5000 to 6500 ft on Monday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Kauai East-Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Windward-Maui Central Valley North- Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.