textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Strong and gusty trade winds will prevail into Sunday as Hurricane Nolo moves toward the west well south of the islands. Deepening high pressure north of the state will produce drier and more stable conditions tonight and early Sunday, leading to continued strong wind gusts over and downwind of terrain, especially in west Maui and leeward Kohala on Big Island. The threat of flooding rainfall has diminished across Big Island and Maui County tonight, with drier conditions on Sunday leading to limited rainfall along windward slopes and dry conditions leeward. Trade winds will lower and shift out of the east-southeast Monday through Wednesday, and chances of rainfall will increase on Kauai and Oahu as moisture trailing Nolo moves over the western end of the island chain.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Rainbands associated with Hurricane Nolo have continued to produce periods of light to moderate showers across the southern part of Big Island tonight. As a result, a flood advisory was issued early this evening. The rest of the forecast remains unchanged from the previous discussion, as it is on track with the ongoing weather situation.

Although winds continue to be gusty in some areas across the state, there has been a notable subsiding in wind speeds throughout the region. Winds will continue to subside as Nolo moves west and away from the area.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 509 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 Strong and gusty trade winds are in place across most of the state as strengthening Hurricane Nolo is moving slowly westward less than 200 miles south-southwest of Big Island. A mid to upper level ridge building north of the state initiated the westward acceleration of Nolo and is creating some stability. A tight pressure gradient north of Nolo and the modest developing stability has produced conditions conducive for downsloping winds within the strong trade wind flow. As a result, Wind Advisory conditions prevail on Oahu and Kauai, and portions of Maui County downwind of terrain are experiencing gusts of around 70 mph or more, mainly in the area around Ukumehame, Olowalu, and Launiupoko. On Big Island, wind gusts nearing 60 mph are being observed in the Kohala Districts. Even though the Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island and Tropical Storm Watch for Maui County have been discontinued, the wind conditions necessitate that the Wind Advisory be expanded to all islands, while a High Wind Warning be posted for portions of Maui County and Big Island. The flood threat is diminishing, but ongoing rain on windward and southeast Big Island will require that the Flood Watch be extended through tonight for that island.

As Nolo moves westward tonight and Sunday, strong and gusty trade winds will persist due to the tight pressure gradient north of Nolo. The threat of heavy rainfall will diminish on Big Island overnight, with limited windward rainfall due across the rest of the state. Expect the Flood Watch to be down by morning.

Winds will ease Sunday afternoon or evening as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes in response to Nolo moving farther westward. Wind headlines may be dropped by Sunday evening or at least be scaled back to limited wind-exposed areas. Showers will be light and largely confined to windward slopes.

Winds will gradually decline and shift out of the east-southeast Monday through Wednesday. The latest National Hurricane Center forecast shows Nolo passing several hundred miles west of Kauai early next week, but it is worth monitoring the progress of the system for any changes to the forecast track. Model guidance shows a band of moisture trailing Nolo and possibly moving over the western end of the island chain Tuesday into Wednesday. If this occurs, Kauai and Oahu could experience an increase in rainfall.

In the long term, weaker trade winds and drier weather is favored by Thursday.

AVIATION

Gusty winds of 20 to 40 kt continue across most of the area, with isolated higher gusts as Hurricane Nolo passes south of the islands. MVFR conditions, with isolated IFR, will continue to be possible across portions of the Big Island tonight as showers continue moving through. Elsewhere, brief MVFR conditions are possible in any showers, mainly across windward and mountain areas.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across portions of all islands. This AIRMET will likely be needed through at least early Sunday.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to the strong winds, with isolated severe turbulence also possible. AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for sustained surface winds of 30 kt or greater across Maui County and the Big Island.

Tropical SIGMET Oscar covers Hurricane Nolo.

MARINE

Issued at 509 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 As of 5 PM HST this evening, Hurricane Nolo was located near 16.7N 156.5W, approximately 165 miles south-southwest of South Point, and moving W at 7 knots.

The Tropical Storm Warning for the waters surrounding the Big Island and the Tropical Watch for the waters around Maui have been cancelled as Hurricane Nolo gradually accelerates westward south of the state. However, the pressure gradient between Nolo to the south and high pressure to the northeast will continue to drive strong to gale-force trade winds through Sunday and a Gale Warning has been issued for all of the Hawaiian coastal waters.

A combination of southeast swell originating from Hurricane Nolo and strengthening easterly trade winds is producing advisory level surf along east facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai that will hold through tonight and then begin to diminish late Sunday into early next week as Nolo moves westward, then northwestward, and gains some distance from the islands. As it progresses on this track, the focus will shift to south facing shores as they receive at least a moderate bump to surf from Nolo on top of a moderate, long period south-southwest swell that began filling in earlier today and may approach advisory levels by Sunday afternoon.

A small, long period northwest swell began filling in earlier today and will continue to bring a small bump to north facing shores into early next week. A series of small, medium-period east swells are expected from Hurricanes Odalys and Polo in the East Pacific next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 509 PM HST Sat Sep 26 2026 As Hurricane Nolo moves westward through Sunday, easterly winds will remain strong and gusty over and downwind of terrain, with very strong wind gusts in excess of 60 mph expected over portions of west Maui and leeward Kohala. Rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement in fuels, but the strong and gusty trade winds have been able to drive a wildfire in the Olowalu area of Maui, even with relative humidity remaining rather high at 60 to 70 percent. With drier and continued windy weather due on Sunday, wind and relative humidity will be at or near critical fire weather levels in many leeward locations, and the only factor against issuing a Red Flag Warning is the limited widespread readiness of fuels.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Interior-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai West-Niihau- Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast- Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward- Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana- South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island North-Big Island South-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island South-Big Island Southeast.

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island Southeast.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.