textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Strong and gusty trade winds expected through Thursday as a new high builds north of the state. Relatively dry conditions are expected today with windward and mauka showers tonight into Thursday as a band of moisture moves from north to south across the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will briefly return around Friday or Saturday, but trade winds will strengthen once again Saturday night into Sunday.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

No changes were made. Previous forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 329 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

A high building far north of the state will strengthen the trade winds and will bring windy conditions across the state. A Wind Advisory is in effect for the typical windy areas around Maui County and the Big Island until 6AM Thursday. Winds will be strongest through gaps, and over and downslope of ridges through Wednesday evening. Wind gusts of 50 mph are expected during this time. For Oahu and Kauai strong and gusty trades are possible but confidence was to low to include them in the wind advisory at this time. The combination of strong trade winds and mostly dry conditions will elevate fire weather concerns today.

A frontal boundary is expected to move north through south of the island chain tonight into Thursday, which should bring a brief increase of scattered showers, especially over windward and mauka areas. The strong trade winds should begin to ease some by Friday afternoon down to breezy to locally strong speeds. From Friday through the weekend, we should see our typical trade wind showers most frequent during the overnight and early morning hours over windward and mauka areas. Trade winds should restrengthen back to strong levels Saturday night into Sunday as another high passes far north of the state.

AVIATION

Locally strong trade winds are expected through tonight. Light showers will continue to be carried in on the trade wind flow, and primarily impact the windward and mountain areas. Brief MVFR conditions are expected within showers while VFR prevails elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango will continue to remain in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain due to the breezy to locally strong trade winds. AIRMET Tango is also in effect for upper level moderate turbulence between FL260 and FL380. The upper level turbulence is expected to gradually diminish through today.

AIRMET Sierra is no longer in effect for mountain obscurations, but showers upstream of the islands may warrant this AIRMET being issued later today.

MARINE

Strong high pressure north of Hawaii will maintain fresh to locally gale force winds across the marine areas through Thursday. A Gale warning is in effect through tonight for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is also in effect for all other coastal water zones through tonight and will possibly be extended through Thursday for most waters. A front will drop south from the northern offshore waters to reach the central waters as it weakens into a trough by tonight. The trough will bring increased shower activity to the area through Thursday.

NDBC Buoy 51101 northwest of the islands has shown a sharp rise this morning as surf along north facing shores is expected to rise quickly through the afternoon and peak tonight as a new large long-period north- northwest swell (340 deg) builds in. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) has been issued for north facing shores of Kauai, Oahu and Molokai and Maui and west facing shores of Kauai and Oahu through Thursday afternoon. Seas are also forecast to exceed 10 feet later today into Thursday so the Small Craft Advisory will likely remain due to a combination of the strong winds and seas. Surf will decrease Friday followed by a north swell this weekend which could push surf back to advisory levels on Sunday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to the strong trade winds through Friday, then may diminish slightly this weekend. A small, long-period south swell may bring a small bump to south shore surf today into Thursday. Surf becomes tiny again Friday into the weekend for south-facing shores.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 329 AM HST Wed Nov 11 2026

Fire weather conditions will remain near critical levels over the next several days, mainly due to the uptick in winds that will persist through Thursday. With the trades strengthening under a drier air mass, winds and humidity will likely reach critical thresholds today, while fuel conditions remain below critical thresholds due to the above average rainfall over the past few months. Due to the fuels, Red Flag Warnings are not expected at this time, but near critical fire weather conditions are expected through Thursday. Winds should ease slightly with a modest increase of humidities on Friday.

Temperature inversion heights will remain between 5,300 and 6,700 feet across the state. The strong low level inversion will make winds quite gusty especially during the afternoons and evenings downwind of terrain over the next several days.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kauai North-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast- Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe-Kohala-Lanai Leeward- Lanai Mauka-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- South Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel.