textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Strong trade winds are expected today as high pressure continues to build south toward the state. Windward and mauka showers increase today as decaying frontal boundary moves from north to south across the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return Friday.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Increased pops a bit this morning given current coverage and radar trends. Otherwise, no significant changes are needed.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 338 AM HST Thu Nov 12 2026

A weakening frontal boundary will bring some deeper moisture south through the islands today. Increased shower coverage is expected over mostly windward and mauka areas, but a few may make it into leeward areas too. The Wind Advisory has been cancelled but winds could still be strong and gusty today but look to remain below advisory thresholds.

The strong trade winds should ease some Friday down to breezy to locally strong speeds. Another high pressure ridge will slide east well to the north of the state this weekend. Some increase in the trades is possible again Saturday night and Sunday before the high stalls to our northeast early next week. A reduced pressure gradient should allow trades to relax some by that time. Brief pulses of better moisture in the trades will keep typical trade wind showers over windward and mauka areas mostly during the overnight and early morning hours through the period.

AVIATION

Locally strong trade winds will continue today before gradually weakening through the second half of the week. A dying frontal boundary is making its way through the island chain this morning, providing an increase in shower activity. Windward and mountain areas will see most of the showers, but leeward areas could see some spillover showers as well. MVFR conditions are expected within showers while VFR prevails elsewhere. Showers will quickly decrease later this morning across Kauai and Oahu, and linger around Maui County and the Big Island a bit longer during the afternoon.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level moderate turbulence downwind of terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely remain in effect for low level moderate turbulence through the next several days.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations across windward sections of Oahu, Maui, and Molokai through the morning hours. Conditions should generally improve once the weak front passes. Windward Big Island could see mountain obscurations later today once the front reaches the island.

MARINE

Strong high pressure north of Hawaii will maintain fresh to near gale force winds across the marine areas through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) which covers all coastal waters. The SCA has been extended through tonight, with a gradual tapering of winds forecast and some uncertainty on how widespread strong trades will be by Friday. Seas are also in excess of 10 feet with a large northwest swell moving through the area. A weakening front will drop south across central waters today as it weakens to a trough. This disturbance will bring increased shower activity to the area until it dissipates tonight. Though trade winds diminish some for Friday and Saturday, high pressure restrengthening northeast of the islands may bring more widespread strong winds Sunday and Monday to all waters.

PacIOOS Buoy 51201 at Waimea Bay shows the northwest swell around 9 feet 16 seconds this morning. A High Surf Advisory (HSA) remains in effect for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai, and north facing shores of Maui through this afternoon. The large northwest swell will generally maintain through the morning before declining this afternoon and falling below advisory criteria tonight. Surf will continue to decrease Friday, but will see another small bump on Saturday with a new north-northwest swell, followed by a more significant north swell which could push surf back to advisory levels on Sunday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to the strong trade winds through Friday. East-facing shores may decrease briefly as trades begin to ease early this weekend, but could see some wrap from the incoming north swell on Sunday. A small, long-period south swell will provide a small bump to south shore surf today. Surf will become tiny again Friday into the weekend for south-facing shores.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 338 AM HST Thu Nov 12 2026

With strong trades and low humidity levels critical fire thresholds may be reached today. However, fuel conditions remain below critical thresholds due to the above average rainfall over the past few months. Due to the fuels, Red Flag Warnings are not expected at this time. Winds should ease slightly with a modest increase of humidities on Friday. Temperature inversion heights will remain between 6,000 and 7,000 feet across the state.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai North- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North- Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.