textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A ridge to the north of the islands will sink south and gradually strengthen, allowing moderate trade winds to build back to locally breezy levels over the weekend. Clouds and showers will remain focused mainly along windward and mauka areas through the middle of next week. A drier airmass moving in from the east is expected to induce a drying trend that limits shower activity into the weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Latest radar and satellite observations confirm pockets of moisture continue to bring shower activity to predominately windward and mauka areas, but also to the Kona slopes of the Big Island, where reports of heavier shower activity has taken place. Shower activity as a whole is forecast to lessen over the next several days as a drying trend is expected through the upcoming weekend. The current forecast describes the situation well, therefore no amendments will be made this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 345 PM HST Thu Jul 2 2026

High pressure will remain far to north of the islands through the weekend. Winds will remain at moderate levels through tonight and Thursday, but then strengthen a bit this weekend to moderate to locally breezy levels as ridging sinks southward somewhat. Despite a generally drier airmass moving into the islands today, visible satellite imagery indicates a band of enhanced rain showers moving in over Kauai and Oahu this afternoon. These showers have produced up to a tenth of an inch of rainfall over the past 6 hours as of 3 PM, but have remained over windward and mauka areas. Over the next several days, conditions will be similar, with showers focused over the windward and mauka areas, heaviest and most widespread during the overnight and early morning hours. No significant rainfall totals are expected over the next couple of days.

Otherwise, winds will gradually increase through the weekend back to moderate to locally breezy levels by Sunday and remain so through the first half of next week. Additionally, expect a continued gradual drying trend, with afternoon relative humidities reaching the mid 40 percents for leeward areas.

Tropical Storm Douglas in the east Pacific is expected to weaken to a remnant low Friday. Remnant moisture from this system will likely be carried into the islands on the trade wind flow during the middle to latter half of the new week. This could increase shower activity, mainly to the windward and mauka locations.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low cigs and SHRA should focus over windward and mauka locations with some limited spillover to leeward areas. MVFR conds possible otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui and the Big Island due to SHRA. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod turb blw 090 downwind of island terrain.

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM HST Thu Jul 2 2026

A surface high pressure far north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally strong trade winds through the forecast period. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island has been extended into the weekend. The SCA will likely remain in place through the forecast period as the high remains nearly stationary with minor fluctuations in strength.

Forerunners of a small, long period south swell are filling in this evening and will peak tonight into Friday. This swell will help maintain near to just below summertime average surf along south facing shores into the weekend. A moderate, long period south-southwest swell will fill in Saturday afternoon and evening, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into Friday with a minor uptick Friday afternoon into the holiday weekend as a small, medium period northwest swell arrives. Tiny to near flat conditions for north facing shores will return next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.