textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A plume of moisture associated with now Tropical Storm Pena well south of the islands brought heavy rainfall to windward areas of the Big Island. While the deepest moisture has shifted off to the west, expect enhanced clouds and showers to continue into Saturday morning favoring Maui and Hawaii Counties. A second tropical disturbance will pass to the south of the state early next week, possibly enhancing shower activity to southern portions of the Big Island. The next best chance for increasing statewide shower chances arrives late next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Unsettled cloud bands shown on satellite east of the Hawaiian Islands are riding into the windward mountains on the breezy easterly trade winds. Expect continued periods of showers favoring windward mountain areas through the early Saturday morning hours.

We continue to see decreasing shower trends from Saturday into Sunday as a high pressure ridge north of the state increases downward vertical motions (subsidence), lowering and strengthening the trade wind subsidence temperature inversion. This lower and stronger temperature inversion around 6,000 to 7,000 feet elevation will cap vertical cloud growth and limit rainfall activity to brief passing showers mainly in the overnight to early morning hours over windward mountain areas.

No changes to the afternoon forecast grids this evening.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM HST Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Storm Pena formed late this morning 650 miles southeast of South Point, HI. Mid level ridging north of the state will steer this cyclone west for the next several days, staying well south of Hawaii. A plume of rich moisture tied to Pena which brought heavy rainfall to the Big Island over the last 24 hours has largely shifted to the west, but trades and moist low levels will keep shower chances going for windward areas of Hawaii and Maui into Saturday. Additional showers are possible around Kona where sea breeze convergence is occurring this afternoon.

A second disturbance behind the tropical storm will send another plume of deeper moisture westward Sunday into Monday. Guidance generally keeps this south of the Big Island, but it is expected to pass sufficiently close to keep an eye on. Shower chances increase for southern portions of windward Big Island Sunday night and Monday morning, but rainfall amounts will fall well short of the 2 to 5 inches that fell in BI windward areas in the last 24-30 hours.

The ridge to the north will settle farther southeast as the week wears on. Drier east northwest low level flow and lower inversion heights will keep shower chances limited mostly to windward areas of the BI and windward and mauka areas of the smaller islands. A surface front will reach the northern islands Thursday and the southern islands Friday. Some increase in shower potential is possible, but the strong ridging in place should limit chances for widespread rain.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through the period. Pockets of higher moisture riding in on the trades will guarantee occasional lower decks falling to low VFR or MVFR cats along with more frequent windward showers especially at Hilo (PHTO). Most airfields will encounter periods of overnight into early morning quick passing showers. Better organized rain clusters passing over windward terminals will produce more frequent periods of MVFR in both lowered ceiling and visibility. Conditions will being to slowly improve tomorrow as drier air moves in from the east.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu. Sierra will likely remain in place through the night.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain the next few days.

MARINE

Issued at 342 PM HST Fri Nov 6 2026 Fresh to strong trade winds with periods of near gales in the channels will prevail through the weekend as high pressure persists north of the state. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in place for all Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas through Saturday night. The SCA will likely remain in place through at least Sunday night as Tropical Storm Pena passes several hundred miles to the south and keeps the local pressure gradient tight. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are expected to strengthen again on Wednesday.

A north-northwest swell will continue a slow decline through Saturday, and surf along exposed north and west facing shores has fallen below High Surf Advisory thresholds. A reinforcing medium- period energy out of the north-northwest (325 to 340 degree) should arrive late Saturday into Sunday. Surf should reach advisory thresholds during the peak of the swell Sunday morning. Another large northwest to north-northwest swell is Wednesday or Thursday.

A small south-southwest swell should produce surf slightly above seasonal average through Saturday. A tiny pulse from the south- southeast may maintain south shore surf near seasonal average Sunday and Monday, followed by background level surf through the remainder of the week.

Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold around seasonal average through much of the week. Select northeast exposures should see long- period energy from the declining north-northwest swell into tonight.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 342 PM HST Fri Nov 6 2026 An easterly wave passing south of the islands will continue to bring elevated humidity levels and into Saturday morning. Fire weather conditions will remain below critical thresholds into next week. Temperature inversion heights will drop from 9-10 kft today to 6-8 kft for much of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian coastal waters and channels.