textproduct: Honolulu

UPDATE

The cold front has stalled near Maui this evening. Periods of moderate to heavy showers are already developing along the Hamakua Coast on the Big Island this evening with over 7 inches of rain reported in the town of Honokaa over a three hour time period. These heavier showers were produced by slow moving terrain anchored storm cells, heightening the threat for flash flooding. A Flash Flood Warning was issued this evening for the Big Island to cover this heavy rainfall event.

Elsewhere, fast moving moderate to heavy rain showers continue to pass through the islands. These showers are capable of reaching up into higher levels of the atmosphere and pulling down stronger wind gusts to the surface. Wind gusts above 50 MPH are already being reported in some of the windier areas this evening. Stronger winds are forecast to develop on Sunday as the high pressure system north of the state strengthens and the frontal band over the islands dissipates. The main weather threats remain strengthening winds, heavy rain, thunderstorms and potential for flooding ramping up from Sunday into Monday. A Wind Advisory was issued for all islands this evening, this advisory will be replaced by a High Wind Warning for the same areas by early Sunday morning. A Winter Storm Warning also remains in effect for the highest summits on the Big Island from Sunday through Monday. A Flood Watch also remains in effect through Monday for all Hawaiian Islands.

Heavy rain, thunderstorm and flooding threats will slowly ease from Monday night into Tuesday with wind threats easing up from Tuesday night into Wednesday. However strong and breezy trade winds will likely continue just below our advisory thresholds through the rest of the week.

SYNOPSIS

The cold front has stalled near Maui this evening. This frontal boundary combined with increasing moisture and a disturbance aloft, will bring the potential for heavy rainfall, flash flooding, and a few rumbles of thunder through Monday. Breezy north to northeasterly winds will continue to fill in behind the front, with the trades then becoming very windy Sunday into Monday as strong high pressure builds north of the state. Conditions will gradually improve by mid to late next week, though breezy and showery trade wind weather is expected to persist.

PREV DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 328 PM HST Sat Feb 7 2026/

Over the past 24 hours, north- and east-facing areas of Kauai, Oahu, and Molokai have generally received 2 to 4 inches of rainfall, much of which fell as the front passed through. Rainfall rates have mostly remained manageable, limiting flooding impacts overall. One exception occurred earlier today over Molokai, where higher rates prompted a Flood Advisory. Since then, rainfall rates have eased somewhat, with showers lingering near the frontal boundary and broader stratiform showers streaming northeastward across the western end of the state this afternoon. More recently, heavier showers have developed over the North Kohala district of the Big Island, prompting the issuance of a Flood Advisory there as well.

This front will continue to slow and eventually stall and dissipate in the vicinity of Maui County and the Big Island heading into this evening. This feature will continue to be the main focus for heavy showers through the evening, making the flooding threat locations highly dependent on where this axis of deep moisture and convergence sets up. Then as the front dissipates, the moisture and forcing will become more diffuse across the state, making it harder to pinpoint where and when the heaviest rainfall will occur. High resolution model guidance continues to show windward areas anywhere between Oahu and the Big Island being the main focus for the highest rainfall through Monday, making windward portions of Maui County the most likely to see flooding during this period. However, the flooding threat remains statewide and thus the Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands. With the instability from the upper level disturbance moving overhead, a few isolated thunderstorms may develop within this shower activity, but chances remain low.

In addition to the flooding threat, damaging winds will become a concern late Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds in from the north and a surface trough develops and deepens into a low west of the state. The resulting tightening pressure gradient between these surface features will strengthen the trade winds late Sunday into Monday, with the potential for High Wind Warning level gusts (60+ mph) across mainly leeward downsloping areas or in showers. The main impacts will likely be power outages, downed trees (especially with saturated soils), and difficulty traveling in high-profile vehicles. A High Wind Warning is now in effect for most locations across the state Sunday through Monday.

Finally, winter weather impacts are possible for the Big Island summits this weekend. As deep moisture overspreads the island, an upper level disturbance nudges in from the northwest, and temperatures aloft drop below freezing, conditions will become favorable for heavy snowfall at the summits. As a result, a Winter Storm Warning has been issued for the summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa from Sunday morning through Monday afternoon.

Conditions will gradually improve for the middle and latter portion of next week, although a somewhat showery and breezy trade wind pattern will likely persist.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for all Hawaiian Islands.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for north and west facing shores of Niihau, Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, north facing shores of Maui, and west facing shores of the Big Island.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian Islands.

High Wind Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian Islands.

Winter Storm Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Summits of Mauna Kea and Mauna Loa.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for all Hawaiian waters.

Gale Warning from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM HST Monday for all Hawaiian waters.