textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A ridge of high pressure will remain anchored in place north of the Hawaiian Islands for the foreseeable future. Easterly trade winds will continue to blow across the region through the end of next week. Shower activity will remain limited with brief increasing trends on Tuesday, and again from Thursday through Friday as a weak easterly wave moves from east to west across the state. Any showers will that develop in this trade wind pattern will favor windward mountain slopes of each island during the overnight to early morning hours.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Easterly trade winds will continue through the end of next week as the subtropical ridge remains locked in place north of Hawaii. Subtle changes to the wind speeds should be expected each day. Mostly stable weather conditions are forecast for the next seven days with slight increases in shower activity on Tuesday, and again from Thursday through Friday as a weak easterly wave passes from east to west across the island chain. Rainfall amounts over the next seven days will remain limited due to large scale stability.

The afternoon forecast grids look good. No evening updates.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 336 PM HST Sat Jul 4 2026 High pressure just north of the Hawaiian Islands will remain the dominant feature, maintaining stable moderate to breezy trades over the next several days. The remainder of the islands will see little rainfall as a brief period of drier conditions can be expected through tonight.

Trades gradually strengthen by the turn of the week as the aforementioned high just to the north of the islands builds and meanders a bit to the southeast. Conditions are expected to remain stable, focusing typical shower activity to windward and mauka areas through the early portion of the next week.

By the end of next week, excess residual moisture associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may extend to the island chain by way of breezy trade wind flow. This may bring increased shower activity over initially windward and mauka locations and may spread further into leeward portions of the state toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend, with a slight uptick in speed heading into Sunday. Low clouds and showers associated with a nearby upper low will move into windward and mountain areas with the trades overnight. Some spillover showers into leeward sites is possible overnight into late morning Sunday, however VFR conditions are broadly expected, with localized MVFR possible mainly for windward sites.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of the Big Island. Looking upstream on satellite, conditions will likely improve overnight, however lingering shower activity may still persist early morning Sunday. Other islands may need to be considered as well, with moisture moving in overnight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 336 PM HST Sat Jul 4 2026 A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island continues tonight. The SCA area expands to include all coastal marine zones around Maui County, including Kaiwi Channel, along with leeward Oahu as winds increase slightly on Sunday. Minor fluctuations in wind speeds may allow for brief periods of additional zones to fall into and out of the SCA coverage area over the next several days.

A small, long period south swell will fade tonight as an overlapping moderate, long period south-southwest swell fills in, boosting south shore surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will remain the primary south swell during the rest of next week as it gradually fades beginning on Tuesday.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. A slight bump in surf along north facing shores will dwindle tonight into Sunday as a small, west-northwest swell fades. Surf along north facing shores then remains flat to tiny into next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Sunday to 6 PM HST Monday for Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.