textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Ridging aloft will bring us a couple days of weak sea-breeze winds and limited showers. A weak front is forecast to slowly cross the state from Thursday night through Saturday night, increasing showers from west to east. Sunday will become more humid as southerly winds increase ahead of yet another front. This one will move in Monday through Monday night, and has the potential to bring strong winds and heavy rain.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 2026

Skies were partly to mostly cloudy across the state this morning, with little in the way of showers showing up on radar. Rainfall reports indicated that very light rain was falling on parts of Kauai, Oahu, and southeast Big Island. Winds were light and mostly southeast or downslope.

Upper level ridging extending into the region from the west will hold firm through Wednesday night. Thursday, weak northwest flow aloft builds south into the area just far enough to push a weak front slowly through the state Thursday night through Saturday night.

The influence of the ridge today and Wednesday will bring us light winds, allowing sea- and land-breezes to develop each day and night, respectively. Showers will be isolated to scattered and largely determined by weak southeast surface winds and interactions of sea-breezes and terrain.

As a weak cold front moves in Thursday night, reaching Kauai County around midnight. There will be a minimal increase in showers and winds will become north and then northeast. This slow-moving front is expected to reach Oahu Friday, Maui County Friday evening, and the Big Island Friday overnight. It is forecast to stall near Big Island Saturday, then pull north Sunday.

Sunday, as yet another, stronger, front moves toward the state, southerly winds ahead of it will bring enhanced moisture into the area, leading to an increase in humidity and showers. Monday into Monday night, as the front moves into the state, winds ahead of it will become southwest and could become strong. The potential exists for strong winds and brief heavy rain, even as there is still model disagreement on how far into the state the front will progress.

AVIATION

Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 202

Light southeasterly winds have cleared skies overnight over the region. High pressure north of the islands will maintain light southeast winds today. This will bring some interior clouds and showers during the afternoon, that are expected to dissipate overnight. VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM HST Tue Jan 27 2026

Light winds will prevail through Thursday as the surface ridge settles southward over the islands. The background flow will remain out of the southeast for Maui and the Big Island waters and out of the south to southwest over the Kauai and Oahu waters. While most coastal areas will experience typical overnight land breezes and afternoon sea breezes, terrain-induced accelerations will lead to brief periods of locally enhanced winds where the flow parallels to the coast, particularly through the afternoon hours. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will gradually fill in on Friday as a cold front moves into the area.

Surf along north- and west-facing shores will trend up through the day as a medium-period northwest swell builds down the island chain. Heights could near the advisory levels by tonight before gradually easing Wednesday into Thursday.

A larger northwest swell is expected later this week from a broad and complex low over the far northwest Pacific. Latest analysis and satellite imagery show a 966 mb low centered east of the Kurils, with a large area of gale- to storm-force winds focused at the islands within the 290 to 320 degree directional bands. This swell will begin building down the island chain Thursday and could become a long-duration event, with a peak centered around the Friday through Saturday time frame. Heights will exceed advisory levels by late Thursday afternoon, then exceed warning levels Friday into Saturday.

Surf along east-facing shores will remain small each day due to a combination of the local winds shifting southerly and the lack of trades upstream of the state.

Surf along south-facing shores will trend up slightly today as a background, long-period south swell arrives. Offshore buoys to the south have started showing this pulse within the 15 to 17 second bands. This swell will ease by mid week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.