textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy to locally windy trade winds will persist through Thursday. Pockets of moisture embedded with the trade wind flow will focus showers over windward and mauka areas with some showers spilling over leeward areas. Trades winds will increase in strength Friday into Saturday due to a tropical disturbance passing well to the south of the area and a strong high building in from the northwest. Enhanced trade wind showers are also anticipated for windward areas later this week and into the weekend as tropical moisture surges in from the south.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

A Wind Advisory has been issued for Kohala on Big Island as winds have been particularly strong due to terrain and diurnal effects. Latest high resolution model guidance suggests winds should ease below advisory levels Thursday morning. However, will continue to monitor trends overnight to determine if an extension is needed.

Radar imagery show scattered to numerous, light to moderate showers moving over the central island chain. Rainfall totals for the past 6 hours show most windward areas received between 0.20 to 0.40 inches for the wetter areas with central and leeward Oahu receiving between 0.10 to 0.30 inches. Satellite imagery show and area of enhanced low level clouds just west of the state that will increase shower coverage later tonight and into Thursday morning particularly for windward areas but with the breezy trades some showers will spill to leeward areas. No changes to the general forecast.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM HST Wed Nov 4 2026

After numerous showers in windward, mauka, and some leeward areas of the smaller islands this morning, coverage has decreased this afternoon and are focused mostly in windward areas. Little change is expected tonight through at least Thursday. A ridge of high pressure north of the state is driving breezy trades across the island chain, which will continue. Additional pockets of moisture will focus showers over windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

An area of showers and thunderstorms is gradually becoming better organized well southeast of the state. There remains a high chance (70 percent) of this activity gradually developing into a tropical cyclone within a few days. The ridge to our north will steer this system westward and keep direct impacts well to the south. However, a rich plume of moisture will pass through southern parts of the state characterized by anomalously high pwats around 2.25 inches. The last several model runs have shown a consistent trend with bringing this deep moisture farther north. What looked like the Big Island being grazed with this moisture 24 hours ago now looks like at least the Big Island and Maui, perhaps as far north as Oahu. In addition, with surface high pressure settling southeast toward the state while the potential tropical system passes to the south, trades may strengthen further Friday into Saturday. Timing consistency is improving between the GFS and the ECMWF with the deep moisture arriving by late Friday morning and exiting to the west sometime Saturday morning. PoPs and QPF have been increased during this period for windward areas, but given the trades and moisture content of the airmass, some of these showers may spill into leeward areas as well. Locally heavy rainfall will be possible.

After the passage of that system, much drier air and lower inversion heights will filter in from the east northeast Sunday into next week. Shower coverage will decrease, but a few may remain possible in windward locations each day.

AVIATION

Breezy trades expected for next few days. Low cigs and SHRA will continue over windward and mauka locations with some spillover into leeward areas at times. MVFR conds in SHRA, otherwise VFR prevails.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of all island except Lanai. Conds should improve in the mid morning hours.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mod turb lee of terrain and should remain in effect for next few days.

MARINE

Fresh to strong trade winds will remain in place throughout the week as a broad area of high pressure remains in place north of the state. Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all Hawaiian Waters and the SCA conditions will likely persist across the state through the weekend due to a combination of winds and seas. Additionally this weekend, a tropical cyclone could pass far south of the state. According to National Hurricane Center, there is a medium chance of formation during the next 48 hours.

Surf along north and west-facing shores will quickly build late tonight into the morning hours on Thursday as a new long-period north-northwest swell arrives. Latest buoy reading at buoy 51001 as of 710 PM showed a significant increase of energy across the 17 to 19 seconds spectral bands, which should translate to surf quickly exceeding advisory levels during the morning hours on Thursday. High Surf Advisory is in effect for most north and west facing shores of the smaller islands on Thursday. This swell is expected to peak during the day Thursday then fade over the next few days. Surf will likely be at borderline High Surf Advisory thresholds on Friday as the north-northwest swell declines. Additional reinforcing energy is expected out of the north- northwest over the weekend, which could produce advisory level surf once again Saturday night into Sunday morning.

A compact fetch of gales passing east of New Zealand last week Friday should produce some waves slightly above average around Friday into Saturday along south facing shores. Surf along east- facing shores will stay elevated and choppy through much of the week due to the strong trades.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 334 PM HST Wed Nov 4 2026 Persistent rainfall will likely limited the widespread availability of receptive fuels. Breezy winds will continue during the next several days, generating moderate fire weather conditions. The inversion near Big Island will range from 6000 to 8000 ft over the next few days.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory from 6 AM Thursday to 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau- Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island North- Kohala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.