textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trades will persist through the weekend, then gradually weaken to moderate speeds by the latter half of next week. Periodic showers will filter in on the trade wind flow, mainly focusing over windward and mauka areas. By next weekend, the background flow may become light enough to support land and sea breeze development.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Minimal updates were made to PoPs to account for current trends. Otherwise previous forecast remains on track.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM HST Sat Jun 6 2026

Radar and visible satellite imagery show isolated showers moving into windward and mauka areas across the state this afternoon. A surface ridge extending over the region from the northeast continues to supply very stable conditions across the state, with the afternoon upper air soundings at Lihue and Hilo showing strong inversions at 5,000 ft and 7,000 feet respectively. Based on the upstream cumulus, brief isolated showers will continue to be ushered into windward and mauka areas under the inversion on the breezy trades into the evening, with a slight uptick in shower coverage expected overnight into early Sunday morning.

The forecast through next week revolves around gradual fluctuations in trade wind speeds and the timing of minor batches of moisture that will move across the state on the trade wind flow. Guidance remains in good agreement on the surface high to the northeast of the state continuing to drive breezy east-northeast trades across the state through the weekend. This high will weaken slightly early next week, then get pushed further northeastward through the rest of the week as a series of lows move across the northern Pacific and a front approaches the region from the northwest. The evolution of the surface high will cause the trades to gradually ease through the week next week. For the latter end of next week, background winds may be light enough to support land and sea breeze development, bringing afternoon clouds and showers to leeward and interior areas and partial clearing at night.

AVIATION

Clouds and showers continue to be carried in on the trade wind flow, however little mountain obscuration is noted this evening, thus AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration has been cancelled. Future AIRMET Sierra are possible depending on the extent of clouds and showers at times.

A high pressure ridge north of the islands will maintain moderate to breezy trade winds into next week. Clouds and showers being carried in on the trades will bring periods of MVFR conditions primarily to windward and mauka areas, but winds will be strong enough to carry some showers to leeward areas. Otherwise VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains, and that is expected to continue into the new week with little change in the trade winds.

MARINE

Issued at 318 PM HST Sat Jun 6 2026

High pressure centered far northeast of the islands will weaken slightly Sunday, leading to a subtle decrease in trade winds. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all waters through tonight, and with the expected drop in the trades, the SCA has been trimmed back to the typically windy waters around Big Island and Maui for Sunday and Monday. During the middle of next week, a ridge north of the islands associated with the high will be weakened and depressed southward. As a result, trades will drop further and allow the SCA to be cancelled entirely Tuesday or Wednesday.

The current south swell will continue to gradually decline through Sunday, with high uncertainty regarding the next swell that will arrive Sunday night and Monday. Nearshore PacIOOS buoys are measuring the dropping swell at just over 2 ft at 13 to 14 seconds this afternoon, which is producing inconsistent sets to near June average. As this swell fades late Sunday, long-period forerunners of the next south should arrive. The new swell was aimed well east of Hawaii, and while this means high uncertainty regarding how much energy will be received locally, there is potential for south shore surf to be around or slightly higher than June average Monday into Wednesday. A smaller pulse of south- southwest swell is due Thursday and Friday, and a more significant south-southwest swell is on track to arrive next weekend.

Along north-facing shores, a small short-period north swell will fade tonight, and a small west-northwest swell will produce tiny north shore surf early next week. Rough surf along east- facing shores will remain around seasonal average through Sunday, then slowly decline through the middle of next week as trade winds ease.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.