textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to locally breezy north-northeast trade winds expected this evening with some higher gusts over leeward areas. Scattered showers over windward and mauka areas are possible this afternoon with a passing trough. Drier and cooler air will fill in state wide by Sunday with scattered showers returning at the start of the work week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 808 PM HST Sat Mar 28 2026

Mostly cool and dry conditions are now in place over Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai. Measurable precipitation is still being observed over windward Maui and the Big Island as moisture from a weak trough lingers. Maui should dry out later tonight. Moisture will likely linger over windward Big Island where another half inch to an inch of rain remains possible tonight for windward areas. Northeast trade winds remain gusty just below advisory levels tonight and tomorrow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Satellite and radar imagery show scattered clouds with some showers mostly along windward and mauka areas ongoing this afternoon. For the rest of today we should see showers gradually decrease west to east as a drier airmass builds in over the state. High pressure far north of the state should gradually strengthen our north-northeast trade winds this evening with gusty winds expected over leeward areas. Gusty winds 40 mph over select leeward areas are possible. Elected not to issue a Wind Advisory for leeward areas for the time being as observations are still below advisory thresholds. Winds will be closely monitored to see if winds reach Wind Advisory thresholds this evening and a Wind Advisory may be needed.

Sunday looks to be a windy and mostly dry day. Some scattered showers will be possible over windward Big Island especially in the morning hours.

A cold upper level low will develop northeast of the state through Wednesday. While temperatures aloft will be cold and unstable, we will continue to remain on the dry side of the upper level low. While heavy showers are not expected, we should see scattered showers moving in with the trade winds especially over windward and mauka areas. Trade winds will gradually decrease throughout the first half of next week as the high weakens to our north. Trade winds should lower to moderate speeds towards the second half of next week.

AVIATION

Issued at 808 PM HST Sat Mar 28 2026 A weak trough continues to enhance windward showers across Maui County and the Big Island. These showers are expected to persist through the overnight hours, bringing periods of MVFR conditions, namely impacting PHMK, PHJH, and PHKO. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail under moderate trades throughout the forecast period.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for Maui and Lanai, and for N through E sections of the Big Island. This may be continued through the morning.

MARINE

Issued at 808 PM HST Sat Mar 28 2026 A low pressure system far northeast and a moderate high pressure system to the far north-northwest of the coastal waters will maintain fresh to strong northeasterly trade winds into early next week. As the low weakens and drifts northeast, high pressure will build north of the islands, allowing winds to gradually weaken and veer to the east. A Small Craft Advisory is posted for all Hawaiian coastal waters due to a combination of strong trade winds and seas from the incoming north northeast swell through Sunday afternoon.

The current small medium period northwest swell will continue to decline tonight. A new, moderate to large short period north northeast swell will build in through the day on Sunday pushing surf heights along north and exposed east facing shores to near advisory by the end of the day. As of this evening, offshore buoy (NDBC 51000) north of the islands have yet to see any forerunners from this swell. Surf heights may reach advisory levels along both shorelines Sunday night into Monday before the swell begins to slowly fade through the rest of the week.

Along south-facing shores, a small medium period swell will continue to provide small surf through early next week. Surf along west facing shores will be small through the week. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy also due to the moderate to locally strong trade winds through the first half of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM HST Sunday for Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.