textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will veer from the southeasterly direction by Tuesday with a gradual weakening trend. Clouds and showers will increase Tuesday through Thursday as Nolo passes to the west pulling up deep tropical moisture along the east side of the storm increasing showers over Niihau, Kauai and Oahu. Nolo moves away to the northwest by this weekend with drier easterly trade winds building back in across the Hawaii Region.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

The latest satellite imagery shows Hurricane Nolo remains on a northwestward track passing several hundred miles southwest of Kauai. Deeper tropical moisture will be drawn northward into the western islands over the next few days as Nolo passes west of Kauai. This unstable moisture and southeasterly wind flow will likely increase shower activity, possibly heavy showers at times, over the western islands of Niihau and Kauai on Tuesday, and over Oahu from Tuesday night into Wednesday. The typically drier south and southeast facing mountain slopes will see elevated rainfall amounts in this changing weather pattern. Deeper hot and humid humidity levels and enhanced shower activity will likely linger through Thursday, before decreasing on Friday just in time for drier trends by the weekend.

The current forecast grids look good. No evening updates.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION

Issued at 303 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Breezy east southeast winds with a drier airmass will limit clouds and showers tonight. Major Hurricane Nolo (cat. 4) is around 415 miles west southwest of Honolulu this afternoon and has made it's turn to the northwest. Main impacts in the short-term will be the breezy, but weakening winds across the state due to the pressure difference between Nolo and the subtropical high far to the northeast, and the southwest swell directed towards Kauai. Nolo will weaken down to a cat. 1 hurricane and stall around 250 to 300 miles west of Kauai on Tuesday night and Wednesday, then continue on a more west northwesterly track away from the state through the second half of the week.

Winds will remain brisk and gradually veer southeasterly as Nolo gains latitude. Rain bands along Nolo's eastern flank will bring an increase in rainfall across Kauai beginning Tuesday and Oahu by Tuesday night, as the southeasterly flow directs showers over populated areas of both islands. Guidance shows varying amounts and lengths of time that the bands will impact the western end of the state, and will ultimately depend on Nolo's eventual path over the next few days. QPF has been adjusted for the Tuesday to Thursday period with 3 to 6 inches of additional rain on Kauai and Niihau, and up to 4 inches on Oahu. Not considering a Flood Watch at this time with the anticipation these rainfall amounts will be spread out over several days and showers should be moving along quickly.

East southeasterly winds will continue, but gradually weaken, through the second half of the week as Nolo tracks away. By this weekend, trade winds are forecast to build in bringing drier and more stable conditions again.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will veer from the southeasterly direction by Tuesday with a gradual weakening trend. Isolated showers are possible across windward and mountain areas tonight into Tuesday with brief MVFR conditions. Moisture will increase across Kauai and Oahu Tuesday afternoon into Wednesday bringing an increased likelihood of showers. Showers are most likely across Kauai starting late Tuesday morning with shower chances gradually increasing for Oahu late Tuesday into Wednesday.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 9,000 feet over and immediately downwind of island terrain. This AIRMET will likely be needed at least through Wednesday.

MARINE

Strong east trades become moderate to breezy out of the southeast tonight in response to Hurricane Nolo advancing northwestward. The exception will be around Kauai where proximity to Nolo will allow for the gradient to remain strong. Near gales will be possible immediately west of Kauai tonight through Wednesday, particularly in the channel between Kauai and Niihau. Here, the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended through Wednesday for both winds and seas. Elsewhere, the SCA remains in place and is still scheduled to expire Tuesday morning. Winds remain southeasterly through Friday as Nolo creeps slowly westward away from the islands. Once it begins to accelerate away over the weekend, east to northeasterly trades return.

Tiny long period energy out of the south is noted on the Barber's Point PacIOOS Buoy this afternoon. This energy represents the initial forerunners of a rather small (about 1 foot), long-period swell that will maintain elevated surf for south shores through mid-week. This is separate from the more substantial short to medium period fresh swell emanating from Nolo. Uncertainty related to the size of Nolo's swell coupled with its slow forward motion Tuesday night through Wednesday will be a theme in the forecast for the next couple of days. For Kauai/Niihau in particular, high surf may linger into midweek conditional on the exact size of Nolo's swell. Likewise, as Nolo lifts north, its westerly swell influence will increase, potentially supporting an HSA for Big Island-West during the middle of this week.

Surf along east shores slowly declines as trades veer southeast and diminish, then return as light to moderate easterlies this weekend. A small, long-period south swell originating east of New Zealand is poised to arrive early next week in maintenance of elevated surf along south-facing shores.

For north-facing shores, the existing small, medium-period swell fades through Wednesday. Multiple rounds of tiny swell originating out of the northwest quadrant will reach north and select west facing exposures next week as the storm track in the vicinity of the Aleutian Islands becomes increasingly active.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 303 PM HST Mon Sep 28 2026 Dry and stable with breezy east southeast winds expected through through tonight, with a gradual increase in humidity through midweek. Moisture drawn northward along the eastern sides of Nolo will increase rain chances across the western part of the state. Fire conditions will improve statewide over the next couple days as winds weaken and humidity levels rise.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Niihau.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.