textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast on Friday. Expect decreasing wind speeds this weekend as a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin weakens the ridge north of the state. Expect continued passing showers favoring windward mountain areas with brief showers over leeward zones. Hurricane Lowell will begin to drift northward later this weekend, potentially bringing impacts to the western most islands from Monday into Tuesday. Please continue to closely monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the track and associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely evolve over time.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Hurricane Lowell is 495 miles SSW of Hilo and 590 miles S of Lihue at the 5 PM HST from the latest National Hurricane Center (NHC) advisory. Even though the forecast track on the northward turn of Lowell remains at lower confidence levels, we should continue to prepare for higher surf, strong winds and increasing heavy rainfall trends as Lowell eventually drifts northward through the region. Western islands of Niihau, Kauai and Oahu will see the highest impact threats at this time. However, locally heavy showers may develop on any island as this large unstable tropical system passes through the area. Please continue to closely monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the track and associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely evolve over time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 310 PM HST Thu Sep 3 2026

Strong gradient winds resulting from the pressure difference between the storm and the subtropical high the north is resulting in strong trade winds across the islands through Friday. Scattered clouds and showers moving in with the trades will focus across windward slopes but may occasionally reach leeward sides of the smaller islands. A Wind Advisory goes through tonight for portions of Oahu, Maui County and Big Island with sustained winds 20 to 30 mph and gusts to 50 mph. This advisory may need to be extended into Friday, but by Saturday, a weekend Hurricane Karina will begin to disrupt the trade wind flow and likely weaken the speeds a bit. Typical summertime trade winds and night/early morning windward showers are forecast Saturday and through the day Sunday.

Attention will shift late Sunday into early next week to the forecast track of Hurricane Lowell, currently a category 4 hurricane. The NHC track forecast moves Lowell slowly westward through Friday night with an abrupt northward turn and increase in forward speed on Saturday. While confidence is low whether a direct impact will occur or not, Lowell will likely bring some impacts to the state including storm surge, high surf, wind, and rainfall impacts to portions of Hawaii, particularly as it moves closest to Kauai County Monday night. The extent of these impacts could range from minor to major depending on the eventual path of the storm, and more specifically when the abrupt turn to the north occurs. Regardless, Lowell is forecast to be a category 3 hurricane at its closest proximity. Coastal inundation could also be exacerbated by the peak monthly high tides that are expected to occur Monday. Interests in Hawaii should continue to closely monitor the progress of Lowell through the upcoming Labor Day weekend, listen to the advice of officials, and ensure they have their hurricane plan and supply kit in place.

Please visit the hurricanes.gov page for the official NHC forecast for Lowell.

On Tuesday, winds will weaken shift south to southeastly in the wake of Lowell, but lingering shower bands may occur through the day. Karina will weaken to a remnant low and eventually be absorbed into Lowell north of the state midweek. Winds will eventually shift back to trades during the second half of the week with no significant weather events expected.

AVIATION

Mostly VFR through the night with the exception of passing MVFR showers favoring windward mountain areas. Weakening trades will occur overnight with some sites gusting near 30 kts after 20z Fri. Brief showers return by Friday night with locally MVFR cigs.

Hurricane Lowell will continue to pass south of the island chain through Saturday. On this westerly track, regional trade winds will remain breezy per a tight pressure gradient between the hurricane and high pressure to the far north.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence south through west downstream of high terrain. AIRMET Tango will likely be in effect for the foreseeable future.

MARINE

A strong surface high persists far north of the Hawaiian Islands and will slowly drift east through the weekend. Currently, Hurricane Lowell is passing near 450 nm south of the islands as it continues to track west. The interaction between the two will strengthen the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all Hawaiian Waters through Saturday and will likely be extended.

The latest track from Hurricane Lowell from the National Hurricane Center is bringing Tropical Storm conditions to the far southern offshore waters. Although as Hurricane Lowell turns north, confidence is growing for hurricane conditions to the southwest and western offshore waters on Sunday. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina, confidence is increasing that Karina will pass to the north and northeast of the state.

Swells from Hurricane Lowell has filled in and will remain elevated above High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions through Saturday. A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina is filling in and will continue though the weekend, producing high end advisory level surf or warning level surf along east facing shores. The HSA has been extended in time and expanded to include east facing shores. The swell from Lowell will gradually veer from southeast towards the southwest early next week. While, the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding also with monthly high tides, this will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances, channels, as well as coastal properties and infrastructure including roadways.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 310 PM HST Thu Sep 3 2026 Trade winds will remain strong and gusty into Friday. Gusts to, or over 50 mph, will be possible in the typical windy areas. Relative humidity values are forecast to remain too high for critical fire criteria to be reached, and fuels are currently rated as not critical. Therefore, the strong winds will not trigger fire weather watches or warnings. The trade inversion is forecast to be 6000 ft to 7000 ft through tonight.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kona-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.