textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Hurricane Lala will move over or just south of Big Island today and continue to the west northwest or west through the remainder of the weekend. High winds, potentially flooding rains, and high surf impacts will be felt statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state. Trade wind weather will return Monday.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Lala has been upgraded to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. The track has remained fairly stable this morning, with the center forecast to move over or just south of South Point on Big Island. From there, it will remain south of the other islands as it moves WNW the remainder of today and tonight, then west Sunday. Rainfall amounts in the past 6 hours range up to 6 inches in areas on the Big Island and Maui. Additional heavy rain will fall through the afternoon there before spreading east to the other islands. Flash Flood Warnings and Advisories have been issued for parts of the Big Island and Maui, and will likely be needed later today into tonight for mainly windward and mauka areas on other islands. Apart from minor track changes, no other changes have been made to the forecast this morning. All threats detailed below in the "PREV DISCUSSION" remain valid.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 524 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 The main forecast concern through late Sunday will be impacts from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 AM HST this morning, Tropical Storm Lala was located about 110 miles southeast of South Point moving west northwest around 13 mph. The center of rotation can be picked up on radar as it drifts closer towards our local coastal water zones. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move over or near the southern end of the Big Island by this afternoon, then continue moving to the west northwest, with the center of circulation remaining south of the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on the latest forecasts, and prepare for the impacts described below.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39 mph to 73 mph) have already begun across parts of the Big Island, and may begin across Maui County as early as late this morning, Oahu as early as this evening, and Kauai as early as tonight. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters due to a non- negligible chance of hurricane force winds (74 mph or greater). A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state and surrounding waters. Localized areas of highly enhanced and damaging winds are possible over and downwind of the mountainous terrain, even well away from the tropical cyclone center. These localized strong winds and gusts will also be felt in advance of the arrival of Lala and should be kept in mind as last minute preparations are being made.

HEAVY RAINFALL...Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Lala have already begun to affect the Big Island, and are expected to reach Maui County by this afternoon, and Oahu and Kauai by this evening into Sunday. Orographic enhancement will result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical flow interacts with island terrain. If heavier rainfall persists over the same locations, flash flooding and rapidly rising streams are possible. The location of heaviest rain will likely favor windward portions of the Big Island and Maui. The current forecast for windward portion of the Big Island has 10 to 20 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible on windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall could occur across the remainder of the island chain. While the highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward areas, leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk. Heavy rain could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Big Island and Maui County through late tonight, and for Oahu, Kauai, and Niihau from this evening to early Monday morning.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala is expected to generate a large easterly swell as it moves northwestward. Surf may build along exposed east and southeast facing shores from east to west as the system approaches. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and extremely rough seas are expected to rapidly increase Saturday and Sunday on exposed southeast and east shores and may produce damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across vulnerable coastal infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of Hawaii. Highest storm surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the eastern side of the Big Island.

In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after the release of NHC's suite of products, to incorporate the latest and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.

Trade winds will resume through the middle of next week in the wake of Lala's departure.

AVIATION

The center of Hurricane Lala is approximately 80 nm SSE of Hilo this morning and is moving west northwest at around 11 knots. Lala is forecast to pass in the vicinity of South Point, Big Island this afternoon. Island-wide TAF sites will experience strong northeast winds gusting to tropical storm force peaking through 02-12Z southern Islands and 10Z-17Z northwestern islands. For PHKO low confidence in wind shift timing. IFR to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be common in heavier showers and nearest Lala.

A Big Island and Maui AIRMET for surface winds greater than 30 knots and IFR conditions is currently in effect.

AIRMET SIERRA is currently in effect for north through east areas of Big Island, Maui, Lanai and Molokai for mountain obscuration above 2500 feet.

AIRMET TANGO for moderate turbulence remains in effect immediately south and west of mountains due to low level winds. TANGO likely continue the next couple of days.

MARINE

NE winds ramp up as Hurricane Lala approaches the Big Island. The strongest winds are expected this evening into tonight for the waters of Big Island and Maui County and on Sunday for Kauai and Oahu. Hurricane and Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect. Trades return from Tuesday onward.

Surf is rapidly building along SE facing shores of the Big Island where very large surf is anticipated in the front right quadrant of the hurricane. Surf is also building along E facing shores for which High Surf Warnings are in effect except for Kauai where advisory level surf is expected. Surf rapidly declines tonight for the eastern end of the state but will take through Sunday to fall below the advisory threshold for the smaller islands.

Choppy conditions for N shores as short period swell wraps from the east through the weekend. For S shores, surf remains below the advisory threshold but will receive a small boost as short period swell associated with Lala works through the area. Long period energy from a distant Southern Ocean swell maintains S shore surf Sunday into Monday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 524 AM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire weather concerns through at least early next week. The temperature inversion will not be present today.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Tropical Storm Warning for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain- Haleakala Summit-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West- Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch from 6 PM HST this evening through late Sunday night for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest- Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana- Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch through late tonight for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala- Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Hurricane Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Kauai East-Kauai South.

Tropical Storm Warning for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.