textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A ridge to the north of the islands will maintain moderate to locally breezy trade winds into the weekend. Clouds and showers will be focused primarily along windward and mauka areas during the overnight and morning hours. Drier weather is expected during the second half of the week, and into the weekend. Higher than normal dewpoints will continue to bring muggier conditions to the islands over the next couple of days.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Forecast was updated in the short term to nudge PoPs towards the NBM which was factoring in the high resolution models lowering PoP. The bulk of the moisture associated with the trough near the islands appears to be passing just north of Kauai tonight. Satellite derived precipitable water shows a much drier airmass upstream of the islands, which will likely move into the islands late Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 326 PM HST Tue Jun 30 2026

High pressure will remain far north of the state (centered around 40N) for the coming week as it slowly drifts west. Moderate to breezy trade winds will continue through the period, with showers mainly windward and mauka, and more numerous at night. A trough appears on satellite imagery passing north of the islands this afternoon. Upstream (east) of the islands, an enhanced cluster of cumulus clouds, indicating increased rain shower activity, has decreased significantly in intensity since this morning. These features will track westward across the islands tonight through Wednesday, bringing increased shower activity to windward and mauka areas, and increasing the chance for noticeable spillover to leeward areas. Brief heavy rain is possible, but the risk for flooding is low.

Surface dewpoints will increase into the lower 70s by tonight as this pocket of moisture arrives, but the more well- defined trough will skirt north of the islands, meaning the most significant increase in moisture/rainfall is expected to miss the islands. As a result, rain shower coverage and intensity has actually been somewhat decreased in the forecast. Drier (more seasonal) conditions are then expected from Wednesday night into the weekend as dew points drop back into the mid to upper 60s. There is some potential for low-level moisture to increase again this weekend. Temperatures aloft remain quite warm, at -5C or warmer, which means there will be no additional upper-level support for very heavy precipitation or thunderstorms.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. An area of enhanced moisture will bring low cigs and SHRA to windward and mauka locations tonight into tomorrow. Expect MVFR conds in SHRA otherwise VFR should prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward portions of Kauai and the Big Island. As SHRA increases this may be expanded to cover other islands.

AIRMET Tango is not currently in effect nut may be needed over the next few days for mod turb downwind of terrain due to the winds.

MARINE

Issued at 326 PM HST Tue Jun 30 2026

Surface high pressure far north northeast of the islands will slowly drift west through the forecast period keeping moderate to locally strong trade winds through Wednesday before declining slightly through the rest of the forecast period. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Wednesday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island and may be extended through Wednesday night.

The small medium period south swell will keep surf heights elevated along south facing shores this afternoon before declining Wednesday. A series of small medium to long period south southwesterly swells are expected Thursday through the weekend. Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy and increase Wednesday as trade winds increase. Surf along north facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.