textproduct: Honolulu
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Breezy to locally windy trades will weaken slightly through Monday, then hold at moderate strengthen through the remainder of the week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, with little rainfall over most leeward sections.
UPDATE
No forecast updates needed. Breezy to locally windy trades and a typical pattern of windward and mauka showers continues in the short term.
PREV DISCUSSION
Issued at 317 AM HST Fri May 22 2026 Winds have remained elevated at advisory levels through the night in the windiest spots of the Maui County and the Big Island. Various models suggests winds will continue to be elevated today, so have extended the Wind Advisory through the day. A slight downward trend is expected today.
A 1033 mb high remains far north of the islands, and is driving strong trade winds to the region. The high has weakened a bit overnight and is more weakening is expected through the weekend. Although winds are a little weaker, they continue at advisory levels, and thus the Wind Advisory was extended today.
The high pressure system will remain in place to the far north of the islands, but will gradually weaken through the weekend. This in turn will cause our local winds to slowly subside, returning to moderate levels Tuesday. A stable airmass over the islands will limit shower activity, with showers focused over the typical windward and mauka areas, as well as over the Kona slopes of the Big Island each afternoon. Other leeward sections should see little rainfall.
Winds will weaken a bit more Tuesday to moderate levels, with more typical trade wind showers riding in on the trades.
AVIATION
Generally VFR conditions. Strong trades will continue across most sites into Saturday with minor weakening expected on Sunday. A drier air mass moving across the islands will keep intermittent shower activity primarily confined to windward areas. Possible brief MVFR and/or IFR categories may occur within heavier showers.
AIRMET Sierra is no longer in effect for mountain obscuration as low overcast conditions have improved over higher terrain.
AIRMET Tango remains in effect for all islands due to low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain in response to these amplified trades.
MARINE
A strong high pressure ridge will remain north of the Hawaiian Islands maintaining strong to near gale force winds through Saturday. The high will begin a weakening trend on Saturday then shift northeast of the state during the first half of next week. Strong trade winds will gradually trend down to moderate to locally strong speeds by Tuesday and then hold through the end of next week.
A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for all all Hawaiian Coastal Waters remains in effect through early Sunday morning. The SCA conditions will likely continuing for locally windier waters into the first half of next week.
A High Surf Advisory (HSA) for east facing shores remains in effect through Saturday afternoon due to a combination of persistent strong trade winds and easterly swell keeping surf elevated. This HSA may drop just below advisory thresholds by Saturday night or Sunday.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny today. A small, moderate period north-northwest (330 degree) swell will is expected to trickle in early Saturday and peak Saturday night, bringing a small boost in surf heights along north and west facing shores through the weekend. A slightly larger northwest swell will fill in Tuesday and peak Wednesday of next week that could bring near to slightly average summertime surf for north and west facing shores.
A small long period south swell will fill in today, peak Saturday, boosting surf to near to slightly above average. This swell will begin to fade out Sunday with another similar swell slowly filling in early next week.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kauai North-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala- Windward Haleakala.
Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island North- Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Kahoolawe-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
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