textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate trades will gradually weaken through Saturday, allowing for the development of localized sea breezes which will bring clouds and a few showers to leeward and interior areas each afternoon, and land breezes which will help to bring clearing overnight. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return early next week, bringing back the typical windward and mauka showers. A slight weakening and veering of the trade wind flow may unfold for the latter part of next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Radar and visible satellite imagery show scattered showers moving into windward and mauka areas of the Big Island to Oahu this morning. After this current batch of moisture moves through, drier air will filter in for the afternoon, decreasing windward and mauka low cloud and shower coverage. With the local pressure gradient projected to gradually weaken, localized sea breezes may develop this afternoon, allowing for the formation of low clouds and showers over some leeward and interior areas.

If the winds weaken enough tonight, land breezes may develop and help to clear out some of the clouds and showers, in which case the chance of rain may need to be decreased slightly with the afternoon forecast package. Otherwise, the current forecast remains on track for the short term period.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 311 AM HST Thu Jun 11 2026 Moisture-laden trades will continue to move across the Hawaiian Islands this morning, responsible for allocating isolated to scattered showers across windward and mauka areas through the afternoon, increasing to scattered to numerous overnight into tomorrow morning. Shower coverage will decrease thereafter as drier conditions encompass the state, expected to persist through the weekend.

As the subtropical ridge overhead slowly begins to weaken and slide northeastward, trades will respond, gradually easing through the remainder of the week. This will open the doors for localized land and sea breeze development through the weekend, introducing leeward and interior afternoon clouds and showers during the afternoon hours, followed by overnight clearing. However, given the lack of moisture available, shower activity during this time will likely remain light and short-lived.

Model guidance continues to support the return of light to moderate trades early next week as a strengthening surface ridge builds north of the island chain. Additionally, model guidance showcases bands of moisture arriving from the east of the Hawaiian Islands. leading to periodic upticks in shower activity across windward and mauka areas as early as Sunday night and prevailing through the latter end of next week.

AVIATION

Trade winds will become weaker as a surface ridge north of the islands weakens. Low ceilings and showers expected, mainly over windward and mauka areas. MVFR conditions possible in isolated heavier showers, otherwise VFR.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for windward locations of Oahu, Maui, and Big Island. Conds may extend into the afternoon.

MARINE

Issued at 311 AM HST Thu Jun 11 2026 High pressure far north of the area will weaken and move east as a front passes by north of the islands. This will cause trade winds to weaken into the the gentle to moderate category with localized land and sea breezes through Saturday. Fresh to locally strong easterly trades will return Sunday through early next week as the surface ridges strengthens north of the state.

A small pulse of south- southwest swell will fill in today into Friday keeping near average surf along south facing shores.

Long-period energy from a storm that passed within our swell window around New Zealand earlier this week is expected to gradually fill in locally late Friday through the weekend. The peak of this storm had seas near 55 feet, and current guidance has this swell peaking Sunday into Monday that will drive surf heights near warning levels. The swell is hitting the Samoa Buoy this morning, so increased confidence in the size of the swell is expected later today as the swell fills in further there. This swell will also coincide with the peak monthly tides and will likely lead to significant wave runup and minor coastal flooding during the first half of next week, particularly during the peak daily high tide cycles. A marine weather statement is also anticipated due to the threat of harbor surges. South shore surf will then remain elevated through much of next week due to the slow decline of this large south swell and a series of more overlapping southerly swells.

East shore surf will slowly decline below seasonal averages through the the weekend as trades ease, then pick up a notch next week as more breezy trades return. No significant swells expected elsewhere.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.