textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Showers will decrease in coverage and intensity tonight into Friday. After southeast winds Friday, trades will build back in this weekend and extend well into next week. This will be a relatively dry trade pattern. However, windward and mauka areas will still see occasional showers.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Scattered showers to continue across the state this evening. No major changes were made as the previous forecast is on track.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 309 PM HST Thu Oct 8 2026

As of 3 PM HST, radar showed showers, some heavy, over Oahu and Molokai, with less intense showers over the other islands. Satellite showed partly to mostly cloudy skies. Winds were gusty and generally out of the south, with the strongest gusts occurring where orographic effects were combined with nearby showers (such as Kahului and on Molokai).

An upper level low to our northwest has been helping to bring heavy rain to parts of the state the past 24 hours. Coupled with an area of enhanced moisture drawn northward from the tropics, flash flooding was seen on both Kauai and Oahu. The event ended last night in Kauai as dry air moved in from the southwest. This dry air has now reached Oahu, and heavy rain will taper down over the next few hours. Scattered to numerous light showers are still expected overnight, however.

The upper level low is forecast to slowly fill and remain nearly stationary through Sunday before weakening into an open wave and moving off to the northeast early next week. With the low still nearby and not weakened sufficiently yet, showers remain in the forecast but decrease in intensity and coverage Friday into early Saturday. Winds will come out of the southeast during this period. A surface high will build to our northeast this weekend, and will help bring trades back to the region. Even though this trade pattern will be relatively dry, windward and mauka areas will still see occasional showers as areas with slightly more moisture move through periodically. Models are hinting at one of these areas moving through in the Tue/Wed time frame, but confidence in timing this far out is not high.

AVIATION

On Friday we briefly transition back into easterly trade winds in a drier weather pattern lasting through the weekend. Enhanced showers with periods of MVFR conditions will linger into early Friday morning. Then mostly VFR conditions through Sunday.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration for all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through early Friday morning.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain. In southerly winds, the favored areas are over and immediately northwest through northeast of island mountains.

MARINE

Issued at 309 PM HST Thu Oct 8 2026

A low pressure system to the north will result in moderate south to southeast winds and enhanced showers across the state into Friday. Weak trades may nose in from the east this weekend and early next week, but a trough will remain west of the area keeping winds fairly light across the western half of the state.

Moderate south swell will continue into next week with a long period reinforcement arriving Saturday. Surf along south facing shores will remain just below advisory levels during this time before declining by the middle of next week.

Moderate surf is also expected along north and west facing shores through Friday and declining through the weekend. A slightly larger swell will arrive around Tuesday, boosting north shore surf but staying below advisory levels. West facing shores will be impacted by both the northwest and south swells, but surf should stay below advisory levels. Surf along east facing shores will remain small as local winds remain fairly weak.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 309 PM HST Thu Oct 8 2026

Continued showers and a humid airmass will be with us tonight. The chance for widespread rainfall will diminish on Friday while humid and light southeast winds prevail. Light to moderate easterly trade winds are expected this weekend and into early next week. The inversion has been wiped out and will redevelop as trades return this weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.