textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trades will gradually ease today becoming moderate to locally breezy Tuesday. Clouds and showers will be limited to windward and mauka areas with some spilling over to leeward areas. Breezy to locally windy trades will redevelop Wednesday through Thursday as a new strong surface high settles north of the state. A slight uptick in windward showers can be expected during the second half of the week as a band of moisture moves from north to south across the state. Moderate to locally breezy trades will return over the weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Isolated to scattered mainly windward and mauka showers continue this morning, with a few showers spilling over to leeward areas, especially on Oahu. Winds were brisk, averaging 10-20 mph with the typical windy areas gusting to around 30 mph. Windward areas are mostly cloudy on all islands, with leeward areas mostly cloudy from Kauai County to Oahu, and mostly sunny from Maui County to the Big Island.

Winds should remain stronger than normal today before weakening to near normal tomorrow. Trade showers will continue through today and into tonight. The current forecast handles this well and no update is planned at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 330 AM HST Mon Nov 9 2026

Latest satellite imagery shows a pocket of low level clouds and showers just east of Oahu moving northwest towards Kauai early this morning and becoming more diffused. Radar shows scattered light showers focusing mainly along windward areas with some showers spilling over to leeward areas of the smaller islands. Overnight rainfall totals range from 0.20 to 0.40 for the wetter windward areas. The pressure gradient generated from a ridge of high pressure to the north and Tropical Storm Pena passing far southwest of the state will gradually relax today as the ridge weakens and Pena continues to track far southwest of the state. Thus expect trades to ease to more moderate to breezy levels tonight and Tuesday. Showers will trend down during the day with a slight increase tonight due to diurnal trends.

A strong surface high will sink just north of the state Wednesday into Thursday, strengthening trades back to breezy to locally windy levels. A dry and stable airmass will continue to support low inversion heights that could help accelerate gusty downslope winds near advisory levels. Will continue to monitor all available guidance and observations to determine if a Wind Advisory will be needed. A band of moisture embedded within the trade wind flow will track south over the state as early as Wednesday night through Thursday bringing an uptick in showers to exposed windward areas. The high will gradually weaken toward the end of the week into the weekend allowing trades to ease back to more typical moderate to locally breezy speeds while pockets of moisture focuses showers along windward and mauka areas.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will continue through the day today with a drier airmass in place. Isolated showers along windward areas may produce brief periods of MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration over Kauai. This should improve by this afternoon.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 8000 feet within the lee of higher terrain. This AIRMET will likely continue through the next several days as locally breezy trade winds persist.

MARINE

Fresh to strong trade winds will gradually decrease through Tuesday as the subtropical ridge north of the state shows a slight weakening trend. Tropical Storm Pena continues to drift westward, passing several hundred miles south of the Hawaiian Islands. Trade winds will strengthen once again on Wednesday as the ridge builds in north of the island chain. A surface trough will move into the region from the north on Thursday, spreading unsettled clouds and showers across the coastal waters.

A medium period swell out of the north-northwest (340 degree) will hold today as another small to moderate swell fills in later tonight, keeping elevated surf along north and west facing shores through Tuesday. A much larger northwest to north- northwest swell was generated by a gale force low developing east of Kamchatka. This large north-northwest swell may bring warning level surf heights to exposed north and west facing shores building in through the day on Wednesday, peaking Wednesday night, decreasing to advisory levels on Thursday, and then falling below advisory levels by Friday.

A small south swell will keep tiny surf in the forecast along south facing shores today before declining through the remainder of the week.

Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold at or above seasonal average today. Expect slight decreasing trends as trade winds ease up on Tuesday and Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Near critical fire weather conditions will hold for the next several days. Breezy trade winds will gradually ease today and Tuesday. Relative humidity values will decrease to near threshold values for the next couple days, but winds and fuels will remain near or below thresholds. Will continue to monitor fire weather conditions closely during the second half of the week as winds are expected to become breezy to locally windy and inversion heights remain relatively low under a dry and stable airmass, which could help accelerate winds downslope of ridges and peaks near to above advisory levels. However, during this time a band of moisture will move through the state that could help relative humidity values and fuels rebound.

Temperature inversion heights should remain between 7,000 and 9,000 feet from Maui County to the Big Island.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.