textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trade winds will persist through Thursday, ease slightly this weekend, then restrengthen by midweek next week. Showers will favor windward and mauka areas, most frequently at night and during the early morning hours. Friday into the weekend, an upper-level disturbance and increasing moisture may bring muggier conditions and an uptick in trade wind shower activity, with pockets of heavy rain possible.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

The current forecast remains on track, so no changes were made with this mid morning update. High pressure to the far north will help maintain breezy trade winds across the state into Thursday. In this pattern, clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas as batches of moisture filter across the island chain on the trade wind flow.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 321 AM HST Wed May 13 2026

At the surface, a dominate high pressure system resides far to the north of the Hawaiian islands, and will keep east to east northeast trade winds blowing through the weekend and into next week. Showers will be pushed over the typical windward and mountain areas, favoring the night time and early morning hours.

By Friday through the weekend, models continue to show a mid to upper- level cutoff low moving over the region, bringing cooler temperatures aloft and increasing instability. Precipitable water values at that time are expected to climb to 1.5 to almost 2 inches over the eastern end of the state as moisture is drawn up from the south. The latest GFS model run and some recent high resolution model runs show an increased probability of pockets of heavy rain forming. Exactly where and when remains to be seen, but localized heavy showers especially over the mountain ranges look like a possibility at this time. This upper low is also expected to usher in muggier conditions as dew points climb into the lower 70s and the extra moisture could linger into early next week.

AVIATION

High pressure far north of the islands will maintain a breezy trade wind pattern through Thursday. Passing showers will continue to be carried in on the trade wind flow. At times these showers could bring some mountain obscuration to various islands, mostly at night and during the morning hours. Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected to prevail.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for mechanical turbulence to the lee of the mountains due to the breezy trade winds. Expect this to remain in place through at least tonight.

MARINE

High pressure established north of the islands maintains locally strong trades until an upper disturbance causes winds to weaken by this weekend.

Small, short period NW swell fades today and will be replaced by a small to moderate, long period NW swell that will peak on Thursday bringing small to moderate surf to favored exposures. Small, medium to long period S swell maintains small surf along S shores. Meanwhile, locally strong trades maintain choppy short period conditions along E shores.

Tides peak around 2.5 ft MLLW this weekend. Combined with ongoing trades and a modest boost in S swell, water levels will peak around 3.0 ft late this weekend into early next week. Minor overwash of low lying coastal areas will be possible at high tide during this time.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Kahoolawe- Kipahulu-Lanai Leeward-Maui Leeward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai West-South Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.