textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Wet and windy weather will continue across the islands today, with conditions gradually improving this afternoon into tonight as winds ease and rainfall coverage and intensity diminishes. A more typical trade wind pattern will then follow Tuesday through late this week, although it will remain rather breezy.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 851 AM HST Mon Feb 9 2026

Ongoing event nearing an end as the gradient begins to slowly weaken today and it becomes increasingly evident that surface convergence will be insufficient to organize meaningful banding of showers. Though organization has been poor, rain rates have been highly efficient at times. MRMS Multi Senor Pass yields estimated rainfall totals so far around 3-6" over Windward Oahu, up to 15" on the northern slopes of Molokai, just shy of 10" over Windward Maui, and around a foot along the North Kohala and Hamakua coasts of the Big Island. Kauai comes in last with a pocket estimated around 5" atop Mount Waialeale. Light to moderate stratiform rain will blanket the eastern 2/3 of the state today while weakly convergent trade wind showers become focused increasingly westward, eventually bringing an enhancement to shower activity over Oahu by mid to late afternoon. This weak convergence exists along the lead edge of mid-level dry punching into the region from the east. This dry air will scour out mid-level moisture and bring increasing stability tonight into Tuesday. Right entrance jet support rapidly wanes during this time as the parent low to the west of the islands slides to the southwest and brings an effective end to the event. The Flood Watch remains in effect until 6pm with no expectation to extend it into tonight.

The gradient over the area has peaked as 1014mb low pressure SW of the islands drifts westward and progressive mid-latitude ridging ushers 1039mb high pressure eastward. Current observations indicate the downslope machine is still going this morning with gusts to 50mph over southern Molokai and 59mph at the Olowalu anemometer on Maui. Gusts are similarly in the 45-55mph in the Kohala District of the Big Island. Daytime heating will allow gusts to creep upwards in magnitude today, but the 70+mph readings of yesterday become decreasingly likely with each passing hour. Subtle increase in stability as early as this evening may keep gusts elevated into the evening. The High Wind Warning remains in effect until 6pm and will likely be transitioned to a Wind Advisory this evening if not sooner.

The Winter Storm Warning for the Big Island summits is also likely to expire on schedule this evening as developing subsidence beneath height rises aloft, impinging mid-level dry air, and gradual loss of deep moisture will spell an end to meaningful snowfall, though a few flakes may continue to fall through the first half of the night.

PREV DISCUSSION

Currently at the surface, a trough of low pressure is located a few hundred miles southwest of the state, while a 1036 mb high is centered well to the north of the islands. The gradient remains strong locally, with breezy to windy conditions affecting much of the state. The strongest winds continue to be over and downwind of the higher terrain, through valleys, and in other local acceleration areas, where frequent wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph have been occurring overnight. Infrared satellite imagery shows overcast conditions across the islands. Radar imagery shows widespread rain from Oahu eastward, with lesser shower coverage over Kauai. The heaviest rainfall continues to focus over the windward portions of the islands. The main short term focus continues to revolve around the heavy rain and damaging wind potential today.

The overall forecast appears on track, with deep moisture remaining over the islands in association with the old dissipated front. This in combination with divergence aloft and strong winds aiding orographic lift, will continue to support areas of heavy rain primarily over windward slopes and coasts, along with a slight chance for a rumble or two of thunder. The Flood Watch remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.

The wind forecast is a bit more uncertain, as there has been a decrease in the gustiness overnight. We still expect a windy day across the islands however, as the gradient remains tight between a 1039 mb high well north of the state and a weak developing low several hundred miles southwest of the islands. As a result, the High Wind Warning remains in effect through 6 PM this evening as well.

Finally, the Winter Storm Warning for the Big Island summits remains in effect through 6 PM this evening for elevations above 12000 feet.

Conditions are expected to begin improving by late this afternoon, with winds easing up some, and rainfall diminishing in coverage and intensity as well. It will remain breezy enough tonight however, that a Wind Advisory may be needed for some of the typically windier areas once the High Wind Warning is cancelled.

More typical, but breezy, trade wind weather will follow Tuesday through Friday, with showers favoring windward and mauka areas. The latest 06Z GFS and 00Z ECMWF show the potential for another round of heavy rainfall next weekend. Since this has been a recent development in model trends showing a return of unsettled weather, will wait for some more run to run continuity before trending the forecast away from a trade wind pattern.

AVIATION

A broad, nearly stationary surface high prevails north of the Hawaiian Islands while an elongated upper-level trough meanders easterly will aid in generating strong to near gale force trades across the islands today. Additionally, scattered rain and lowered ceilings across the state will lead to MVFR and localized IFR conditions at times. Otherwise, gusty trades will be the primary impact throughout the period.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL380. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.

Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

MARINE

A low pressure system southwest of the Hawaiian Islands slowly drifts westward as a strong high north of the state slowly drifts eastward. Wind speeds will weaken slightly through the day as both large scale pressure systems begin to move away from the island chain. Strong to gale force winds remain in the forecast today for both coastal and offshore waters, and a Gale Warning remains in effect through the afternoon hours for all Hawaiian waters. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will linger in the forecast for all coastal waters with slight downward trends each day to Small Craft Advisory levels from Tuesday into Thursday.

These strong to gale force trade winds today will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores lasting through tonight. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for exposed east facing shores through tonight. Surf heights along east facing shores will decline to advisory levels by Tuesday morning, then decline below advisory thresholds, yet remain rough from Tuesday night onward as trade winds ease across the region.

Small to moderate northwest swells will pass through the islands into the first half of next week. These smaller swells will keep surf heights on the smaller side. Looking into the extended forecast from the middle to the end of next week, we see a similar swell picture with no larger northwesterly swells for the foreseeable future.

Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south swell energy expected over the next few days. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit- Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North- Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore- Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast- Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Alenuihaha Channel- Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.