textproduct: Honolulu
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
SYNOPSIS
Breezy trade winds will continue to persist through the first half of the week then ease slightly during the second half of the week. Some passing showers will ride in with the breezy trade winds, mainly during the overnight and morning hours. Dewpoints in the 70s will continue to produce humid conditions tonight, but dewpoints should gradually ease late tonight through Tuesday with more comfortable humidities returning by Wednesday.
DISCUSSION
Latest radar and satellite imagery shows warming cloud tops and decreasing rain rates over the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Thus, the Flood Watch over the Big Island has been cancelled.
While the threat for heavy rain has ended over the Big Island, humid conditions will still persist across the state through tonight due to the higher than normal dewpoint temperatures. Drier air should gradually move in on Tuesday, which should help bring some relief of the humid conditions.
For Tuesday, we are looking at a fairly dry day across the state with breezy trade winds. The one exception will be over the Kona slopes of the Big Island, where they should see afternoon clouds and showers develop. Some brief periods of moderate rain will be possible due to some lingering moisture.
By Wednesday, we should be back to our typical summer time trade wind weather with breezy trades, dewpoints in the 60s and a few passing showers over windward and mauka areas. This typical summer time trade wind weather will likely persist through rest of the week with brief increases of showers from time to time. Trade winds will also likely ease slightly and become more moderate to locally breezy speeds by the end of the week.
AVIATION
Daytime convection developed over the Big Island leading to thunderstorms east of PHKO. Some debris clouds will drift westward, but will keep VCTS out of the TAF for now.
Elsewhere,still seeing windward to mountain showers through at least this afternoon with MVFR conds possible in showers. Moderate to locally strong trade winds will continue into at least Tuesday. PHNY and PHJH did have an atypical wind shift this afternoon, but think this will be short-lived.
AIRMET Tango is in effect for low level turbulence downwind of terrain due to the strengthened trade winds. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscurations over windward portion of the islands except for the Big Island.
MARINE
Fresh to locally strong trades will persists as Tropical Depression Moke passes far southwest of the island chain and broad high pressure remains north of the state. Convection associated with this system will remain over the far southern portion of the offshore waters as it tracks west. Maui Leeward Waters has been removed from the Small Craft Advisory and now only includes the typical windy waters around Maui County and the Big Island.
Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy due to persistent trade wind swell.
Surf along south facing shores will remain below summer average as a small medium period south swell slowly fades through Tuesday. An overlapping small, long period south southwest swell will fill in tonight through Tuesday that should keep surf below the summer average. A slightly larger long period south swell will fill in Wednesday and peak Thursday into Friday. This swell could push surf towards advisory thresholds before slowly fading over the weekend.
Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny.
FIRE WEATHER
Issued at 313 PM HST Mon Aug 24 2026
Drier conditions will return Tuesday into Wednesday and breezy trade winds will continue to persist through the middle of the week. Recent rainfall has allowed for some green up across leeward areas, which should allow for the fire threat to remain at moderate at best even with the somewhat breezy and drier conditions expected towards the middle of the week. Typical summer time trade wind weather is expected through the rest of the week.
HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
Flood Watch until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Tuesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Pailolo Channel.
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