textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

The center of Tropical Storm Nolo will continue in the vicinity of Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument waters the next several days. Moisture content will remain elevated through the end of the week. Drier weather conditions expected into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Cloudiness with showers, heavy at times, were observed across Kauai and Oahu late this morning and early this afternoon. Showers moved from south to north through both islands, producing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. By mid afternoon, most of the activity moved out of the islands. Rest of the state remained relatively dry, with few isolated showers moving from time to time.

This activity was associated with a moist south flow, induced by Tropical Storm Nolo's circulation. Tropical Storm Nolo continues to move slowly near Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument waters and will continue to do so for the next couple of days. The National Hurricane Center forecast brings tropical Storm Nolo back to hurricane status in 72 hours, but no impacts are expected across the state as Nolo continues moving away from the area.

Although Nolo will continue moving slowly away from our coastal waters, deep tropical moisture will move across the region through at least Saturday afternoon. PWAT values will remain above 1.7 inches throughout the period, decreasing to 1.25 by Sunday as a drier air mass takes control of the weather locally. Therefore, chances for precipitation will continue, especially on Friday as models are suggesting new bands of showers will move throughout the region.

In the long term, a high pressure system is expected to build northwest of the region, bringing dry weather conditions under a northeast wind flow.

AVIATION

Moderate to breezy southeast winds will gradually ease tonight into Thursday as Tropical Storm Nolo tracks west, away from the state. Outer rain bands associated with Nolo will bring showers mainly over Kauai and Oahu from the south over the next 24 hours, with Kauai expecting the most coverage. MVFR and even IFR conditions will be possible within these showers.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is in effect for Kauai, Oahu and southeast portions of Big Island due to the clouds and showers moving over the island from the south and southeast. This AIRMET will likely continue for Kauai and Oahu through the night but may not be needed for the Big Island overnight as downslope winds develop, pushing showers offshore.

MARINE

Moderate to fresh south to southeast winds will weaken slightly to moderate levels by Thursday as Tropical Storm Nolo slowly drifts westward away from the main Hawaiian Islands. Since winds and seas have decreased below advisory levels this afternoon, the Small Craft Advisory that was previously in effect for waters surrounding Kauai has been cancelled. East to northeast trades will fill back in across the waters this weekend.

The moderate, short to medium period west to southwest swell originating from Nolo will continue for Niihau and Kauai through Friday night. Additionally, a small background south swell continues for other islands. The next small, long period south swell energy will arrive either late Sunday or Monday.

Surf along other shores will remain small until moderate trades return late this weekend, providing a slight boost to east facing shores. Multiple rounds of tiny northwest swell energy will reach north and west facing shores this weekend into early next week as the storms tracking near the Aleutian Islands become increasingly active.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 344 PM HST Wed Sep 30 2026

Fire weather conditions will improve through the remainder of the week in response to higher southern moisture and moderate southeasterlies. Drier weather conditions and lower relative humidities are then expected by the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.