textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trades continue with breezy winds through Monday before weakening slightly Tuesday, then strengthening again Wednesday through Friday. Moisture will decrease late Monday, leading to relatively dry trades from then until late in the week. There is a significant potential (90% chance) for a tropical system to form to our ESE soon. It is expected to head in the general direction of Hawaii, but we don't yet know how close it may come. Everyone is advised to stay informed as new forecasts are issued.

DISCUSSION

Radar indicates some moderate to strong showers on the Big Island, where conditions are favorable for weak thunderstorms to form (no lightning has been observed as of 3:30 PM HST). Elsewhere, light showers were seen mainly across windward and mauka areas of Maui County, with little to no shower activity over the Island of Oahu or Kauai County.

A strong upper level high to our northeast will help keep trades going through the coming work week. The high is forecast to retrograde westward late in the week, and this will a significant factor in the track of the potential tropical storm currently expected to form to our ESE and then move WNW. The area is currently known as Invest 93C, and NHC confidence is high (90%) that what will eventually be named Lala will form soon. Model spread is also high, with some solutions taking the system north of the islands, some south, and a few going through our state. No official forecast exists yet. It will take another day or two before we have a forecast track. At this point, we suggest that folks make sure they are prepared and make sure to stay informed. NHC will handle the track forecast. We will handle local impacts, if any, and we are still some time away from knowing what those might be.

AVIATION

Fresh trades expected for the next several days. AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to wind speeds.

AIRMET Sierra is posted for mountain obscurations above 2500 feet for windward sides of Oahu, Molokai, Maui and Big Island due to a steady stream of showers carrying in with the trade winds.

MARINE

High pressure to the far northeast will remain nearly stationary through midweek as moderate to locally strong trade winds will persist through Wednesday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect through Monday afternoon for the windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Borderline conditions will likely continue through at least Wednesday, which may prompt further extensions of the SCA. Later in the week, the focus will shift to the deep tropics southeast of the state. Latest guidance from the National Hurricane Center has a high chance in 7 days for a tropical storm to form southeast of the islands. Depending on the track, it will have differing effects on local winds, seas and weather as early as Thursday.

Surf along south facing shores will remain near the August average through Monday as overlapping south swells impact the islands. Surf looks to slowly building through the week. A larger moderate long period south swell is expected to fill in Wednesday and remain elevated through Friday prompting the potential for a High Surf Advisory at its peak.

Surf along east facing shores will continue to remain moderate and rough due to moderate to locally strong trade winds. Later in the week, the potential of the developing tropical's track will dictate the potential for a swell from the southeast to east. Aside from wrapping trade wind energy, surf along north-facing shores will remain flat to tiny through the week.

Due to a combination of peak monthly high tides and water levels running higher than predicted in a few locations, a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for minor coastal flooding possible around the afternoon high tide through at least Tuesday. Tides will be decreasing on Wednesday, but coastal flooding may continue to be possible around high tide for locations where water levels are running highest.

FIRE WEATHER

Moderate fire weather conditions are expected for Kauai and Oahu through Monday under light to breezy trade winds and trade wind showers. Fire weather concerns will be lower over Maui County and the Big Island, where higher rain amounts are forecast through Monday morning.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.