textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trade winds will continue through the weekend and into next week, bringing showers to the usual areas. Sunday should have the highest concentration of showers, but not expecting anything that would require headlines. A trough may move close enough to put us in a wetter pattern from the middle to the end of next week, but confidence is not high at this time.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Scattered showers were occurring this afternoon across all islands, favoring windward and mauka areas, but also in the Kona region of Big Island. Precipitation recorded so far today is generally around a tenth of an inch or so, with higher amounts at higher elevations and in some windward locations. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy, and highly variable in both time and space. Trade winds were blowing out of the east averaging 10-20 mph with gusts 20-30 mph.

A strong surface high north of the state, associated with a high- amplitude upper level ridge, will get even stronger through Saturday before weakening Sunday into early next week. The result for our weather will be a continuation of trade winds and the typical windward and mauka showers that come with that. Winds will be moderate, but below advisory threshold over land.

An enhanced band of moisture will move east to west through the state Sunday into Sunday night, bringing a slight increase in showers. The upper level ridge referenced earlier will shift east and weaken Monday into Tuesday as a high-amplitude trough attempts to move east across the central Pacific. By Wednesday and Thursday of next week, models show a large spread of potential strength and location of this next upper trough. The latest deterministic GFS shows a moderate closed low moving into position just a few hundred miles northwest of the state. This would like put us back in a wet pattern for the middle to latter part of next week. The latest EC has most of the energy going farther north of the state, with only weak troughing to our west. The ensembles are split as well, so we will continue to watch this potential system over the coming days until some convergence in solutions occurs.

AVIATION

Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Breezy trades will continue to persist over most of the island chain. Intermittent mountain and windward showers are expected to persist as well, with MVFR conditions possible under shower activity. Leeward sites expected to remain VFR.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration for Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island for windward sections due to ongoing showers and low ceilings. Conditions are largely expected to persist through the evening.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence below 7 kft for leeward sides of the islands. Conditions are expected to persist for the next several days.

MARINE

Issued at 307 PM HST Thu Feb 12 2026

Strong high pressure anchored along 30N and troughing west of the islands will support strong easterly trades in maintenance of elevated seas into next week. A Small Craft Advisory for a combination of winds and waves is likely to remain in effect throughout this time.

A small NW swell building this afternoon will peak on friday bringing a small bump to surf along N and W facing shores. N and W facing shores then see little in the way of additional energy for the following several days until another small NW swell arrives during the latter portions of next week.

Surf along E shores remains elevated due to persistent strong trades. Restrengthening of trades this weekend into early next week will likely produce another round of advisory-level surf and possibly warning level surf along E shores of Oahu and Kauai.

Surf along S shores remains small with some background trade wind swell for select exposures.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.