textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trades will gradually ease through the rest of the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will allow showers to favor windward and mauka areas through Friday. An overall wetter pattern is expected this weekend as additional moisture is drawn over the island chain and an upper level disturbance moves overhead. Strengthening trades early next week will return a more typical windward and mauka focused shower pattern, followed by more stable conditions by mid to late week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026

This evening, the forecast remains largely on track. The stationary front remains west of the offshore waters area, and widespread cloud cover and a line of thunderstorms along this feature dominate the regional satellite imagery this evening. Ahead of the front, thick high clouds have spread farther east over the island chain. Meanwhile, as the surface high pressure north of the state continues to weaken, surface wind speeds continue to gradually decline from speeds that were observed over the past couple of days. A few showers embedded within the trades will favor windward and mauka sections of the islands during the overnight hours tonight.

As far as forecast changes go, only minor tweaks have been made this evening to the wind forecast over the next several days to bring it more in line with latest global model guidance. Otherwise, still expecting increasing moisture and instability to move into the region on Friday, increasing the chances for locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding, along with some isolated thunderstorms, initially for Kauai. The Flood Watch remains unchanged at this time, in place for the islands of Kauai County from Friday afternoon through early Saturday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026

Radar and satellite imagery this afternoon show isolated to scattered showers moving into most windward areas on breezy to locally windy trade winds. The motion of these showers continues to indicate a slight southeasterly component in the low-level steering flow, a pattern that is expected to persist for the next several days. Meanwhile, a line of thunderstorms has remained active along a stationary front west of the state, sending high- level cirrus clouds streaming over the island chain. These high clouds are expected to linger through tonight and into tomorrow.

An area of deeper moisture can be seen upstream of the state on satellite this afternoon, and is forecast to move across the islands overnight into Friday. As this moisture arrives, an increase in windward and mauka showers is expected late tonight into Friday morning, even as trade winds gradually ease and veer slightly.

Looking ahead to the weekend, in addition to the moisture arriving on the trades, an axis of deep moisture will approach from the west as an upper-level trough swings overhead. The combination of increasing moisture and instability will bring the potential for localized flooding and isolated thunderstorms late Friday afternoon into Saturday, particularly across the western end of the state. Winds will be lighter during this period. While the overall pattern is somewhat complex and has posed forecast challenges, confidence is increasing that Kauai could see periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall capable of producing localized flooding. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued for Kauai County from 3 PM Friday through 6 AM Saturday.

Beyond the weekend, model guidance suggests that between Sunday night and Tuesday, moisture pooled along a horizontally-oriented frontal boundary will shift southward down the island chain as high pressure builds north of the state between two nearby lows. This boundary will bring another uptick in windward and mauka showers as it moves through, followed by strengthening trade winds. By the latter half of next week, mid-level ridging is expected to build overhead, supporting a more stable pattern with moderate to breezy trade winds.

AVIATION

Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026

Breezy trade winds will continue to weaken slightly through tomorrow as high pressure to the north weakens. Isolated to scattered windward showers are expected overnight and into Friday. Brief MVFR due to visibility in showers was observed earlier today and will remain possible in the strongest showers through tonight, with the greatest chances occurring at Hilo.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 8000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the strong low level winds. We also have light to moderate turbulence aloft between 26kft and 38kft. This AIRMET is expected to continue into the evening. However, conditions may become marginal as winds decrease through the period.

MARINE

Issued at 825 PM HST Thu Feb 19 2026

Strong trades will persist into Friday, then begin to ease over the weekend as a gale nearby to the northwest lifts north- northwestward and away from the region. Winds may become light enough for a localized land and sea breeze regime to become established over the weekend. Seas will respond by gradually lowering, likely falling below the 10 ft Small Craft Advisory level by Saturday. In addition to the winds and seas, expect a wet pattern with isolated thunderstorms to develop late Friday into the weekend as an upper disturbance moves over the state.

Surf along exposed east-facing shores will remain rough, with heights hovering around advisory levels through Friday. A downward trend will follow over the weekend as winds diminish locally and upstream of the state.

Surf along exposed north- and east-facing shores will quickly build through the day Monday as a long-period north-northeast swell from a broad storm-force low evolves off the northwest Pacific coast this weekend. A large area of northerly gales between this system and a 1048 mb blocking high centered over the Aleutians will expand southward Friday through the weekend, with the head of the fetch reaching less than 1,000 nautical miles from the state. Heights will reach warning levels for exposed north- and east-facing shores by late Monday through Tuesday. Although a gradual downward trend is anticipated by midweek, additional pulses from this same system will keep surf above advisory levels for east-facing shores through much of the week. This swell direction will bring surf into some typically protected areas such as Kua Bay, West Maui, and exposed shores of Lanai.

Other impacts from this north-northeast swell direction could include significant erosion along some coasts and accretion at other locations as sand shifts opposite the normal winter pattern, particularly along north-facing shores. Additionally, overwash along vulnerable sections of coastline and roadways will be possible beginning Monday night during high tide cycles, including typical areas in Hilo Bay. Mariners can also anticipate harbor surges in Kahului and Hilo associated with this swell direction.

Surf along exposed west-facing shores will rise early next week as a long-period northwest swell arrives from a broad storm-force low currently located over the far northwest Pacific near the Kurils.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch from Friday afternoon through late Friday night for Niihau and Kauai.

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Friday for Kauai Leeward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Friday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.