textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Surface high pressure continues to strengthen northeast of the state tonight and will bring an increase in trade wind flow. Low clouds and showers will remain through Monday morning mainly over portions of Maui, Molokai, and Oahu as an area of enhanced moisture moves in from the east. From late Monday through Friday, light easterly winds will return. Afternoon coastal sea breezes should help bing clouds and showers to interior and mountainous locations. From Wednesday onward, deeper moisture moving in from the southeast should bring increased precipitation chances to the Big Island, and perhaps Maui.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

This evening's IR satellite loop showed a band of enhanced moisture and clouds moving slowly westward across all islands. Over the last several hours, the greatest coverage of shower activity had been concentrated over windward Maui County, Oahu, and along the Hamakua coast on the Big Island, though many leeward sites reported rainfall accumulation as well. Fortunately, rain rates have remained below half inch an hour, so flooding was of little concern. Short term guidance progs this activity to continue on its westward journey tonight, pushing away from the Hawaiian islands by Monday morning. In the update, cloud coverage and rainfall chances were upped slightly in the leeward areas of Oahu and Maui County tonight and decreased statewide Monday morning to account for the precise timing of drier air expected to be filtering in on the heals of this passing band.

Trade winds have been moderate today, averaging around 10 to 15 mph over most sites with some stand out locations breaching 20 mph. These moderate trades are on track to persist through Monday, before gradually weakening Monday night through midweek.

Episode 49 of the Kilauea eruption ended at 505 pm this evening.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 PM HST Sun Jun 14 2026 Showers continue this afternoon, mainly over Maui County and Oahu, with only isolated activity on the Big Island and Kauai County. Skies were mostly cloudy except over Kauai County and much of eastern Big Island. Minimal volcanic ash has been observed with today's 49th episode of Kilauea, and most of it has been carried southwest of the crater into relatively uninhabited areas. Winds have become light and variable as of 3 PM HST, allowing the ash to fall out close to the crater, with some light northeast drift.

The overall forecast remains consistent, with minimal changes in guidance. Trades averaging 10 to 20 mph will continue through Monday, then weaken to 5 to 10 mph from Tuesday to the end of the week as the surface pressure gradient slackens again. Rainfall will be light for most areas, but increased moisture will make it to the Big Island from Wednesday into next weekend. This moisture may briefly extend north and west toward Maui County (and perhaps even Oahu) Thursday and Friday, increasing the chance of showers there. This moisture will be associated with an increase in the height of the trade inversion, which makes for slightly deeper and stronger showers. But significant heavy rain is not forecast. The light winds for most of the week means a return to sea breeze showers over leeward areas, along with some weak windward and mauka enhancement.

AVIATION

Light, stable trades continue through the evening hours, occasionally light enough for land breezes to develop. Low-level moisture embedded within these trades may lead in light shower activity resulting in periodic localized MVFR conditions, namely for Maui County. Trades increase slightly by the early morning, becoming light to moderate, with clouds and showers along windward and mauka areas at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mountain obscuration across windward Oahu and Maui County due to the aforementioned light shower activity. This is expected to improve this evening, however.

A sharp, though weak, upper level trough is producing moderate turbulence aloft over the Big Island, where AIRMET Tango is in place above FL300. This is also expected to subside by this evening.

MARINE

Moderate trade winds tomorrow will become light to moderate through the week as high pressure weakens.

A large long-period south-southwest (200 degree) swell will hold tonight into Monday before gradually declining through the rest of the week. Buoy 51002 readings remain steady around 4 to 6 feet at 17 to 19 seconds and the size at the webcams looks around borderline at warning levels (15 foot sets) currently with some lulls in between sets. Seeing that these large sets seem to be a bit inconsistent, there is a chance that the High Surf Warning could be downgraded to an advisory if the buoy levels drop significantly tonight. One thing to note is that as the period drops tonight and tomorrow, the consistency of the sets could increase. The large south- southwest swell combined with King Tides will continue to create the potential for significant wave run up along south and west facing shores through Monday afternoon.

Very little swell energy is arriving along north facing shores, keeping surf tiny to flat. A small bump in surf is possible for north- facing shores by late Tuesday into Wednesday with the arrival of a small northwest swell and a smaller north swell. Gentle to moderate east-northeasterly winds expected through next week will keep surf along east facing shores below seasonal average.

A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for minor coastal flooding of vulnerable low-lying coastal roadways, docks, boat ramps and other coastal infrastructure. King Tides combined with water levels that are running higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding potential around the daily peak tide, which will be during the late afternoon and early evening hours, through at least Tuesday. While minor coastal flooding is expected along all shorelines, the combination of the south-southwest swell, King Tides and the daily high tide will make low-lying coastal areas along south and west shores susceptible to more widespread coastal flooding through the first half of next week.

A Marine Weather Statement also remains in effect due to the large long-period south-southwest swell producing harbor surges and breaking waves near harbor entrances along south and west facing harbors.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island South- Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro- Kahoolawe-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Niihau-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast.