textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Ample moisture remains over the area thanks to a surface trough (the remains of a front) and an upper level low to our west- southwest. This upper low will weaken and slowly drift farther to the southwest and away from the state through Wednesday. A surface high to our north will strengthen overnight, helping keep strong trade winds blowing through tomorrow, with only a little bit of weakening going into Tuesday. The potential for flooding will remain over all islands tonight and Monday, with the highest chance over windward Maui County and windward Big Island. Strong winds will continue to occur over all islands as well, with the strongest winds in the lee of mountains and in/near stronger showers. There is still a slight chance of thunderstorms through Monday. After Tuesday, trades will maintain above-normal strength, and windward showers will be plentiful, but the high threat potential of today through Monday will end.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026

Satellite shows overcast skies this afternoon, which is not surprising given the storm we are experiencing. Radar indicates widespread rain, some heavy, on all islands except Oahu. There, the leeside is relatively rain-free, but a few light showers have appeared through the afternoon so far. Most islands have reported rainfall of over an inch in the past three hours in at least a few locations, and in some cases this heavy rain is widespread. Several locations on the Big Island have reported over 10 inches of rain in the past 24 hours, with a maximum of 14.67 inches at Honokaa. There have been additional mudslides/landslides today, mainly on the Big Island. Winds were gusty in many locations, especially downwind of higher terrain. Several gusts over 60 mph have been reported (including one over 70!), with widespread reports greater than 40 mph. Numerous trees have been downed and there are many areas without power (although many others have been restored already). A final note on current conditions, today has been quite cool, with the Honolulu airport reporting a high of only 70 so far. Monday will be cool again, with perhaps just a couple degrees of warming compared to today.

An upper level low several hundred miles to the southwest is helping draw plenty of moisture northeast over the state. It is also providing cold temperatures aloft, helping to increase instability leading to isolated thunderstorms. These have remained offshore (to the southwest of Kauai County near the center of the upper level low) so far. At the surface, a 1035 mb high to the north combined with a trough of low pressure to the south has resulted in a strong pressure gradient across the region. This is bringing us the strong trade winds (generally 20-30 mph with higher gusts) at low levels. These winds become stronger as showers "mix down" stronger winds from a few thousand feet up, where wind speeds are 35-50 mph. They also become stronger as winds move down mountain ranges, where a "mountain wave" can occasionally form. This process can produce wind gusts at or above 60 mph.

The upper low will remain nearly stationary tonight, then slowly drift southwest as it weakens through Wednesday. At the surface, the high to the north will intensify tonight, helping to increase winds across the state. The High Wind Warning for most areas will remain in effect through 6 PM Monday. Rain will continue through the night and into tomorrow as well, so the Flood Watch will also remain in effect through 6 PM HST Monday. The heaviest rain is still expected across windward areas, with light to moderate rain elsewhere. Snow will continue on the summits of Big Island, therefore the Winter Storm Warning there will continue Overall, very little has changed with the forecast this afternoon.

Looking farther into the future, the surface high will undergo evolution as one center weakens and another takes its place, but the result will be a continuation of moderate to strong trade winds through next week. We will see significantly less widespread precipitation starting Wednesday, but windward areas will see numerous showers through the end of the week.

AVIATION

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026

A surface high pressure passing north of the state and surface trough deepening southwest of the state will generate strong to gale force trades across the island chain into Monday. SHRA and low cigs are causing MVFR and isol IFR conds. Expect gusts in excess of 40 kts.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for all islands.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol turb across all islands and adjacent waters due to the weather system over the state up to FL360. Sustained winds in excess of 30 kt is also expected into Monday.

Light icing is expected in cloud layer 110-FL250 across the state.

MARINE

Issued at 318 PM HST Sun Feb 8 2026

A trough over central waters and a strong high building north of the area will result in gale force trade winds, rough seas and numerous showers across all coastal waters through Monday. A Gale Warning is in effect through Monday afternoon for all surrounding waters. Winds are expected to ease some on Tuesday, but trade winds will remain in the strong range with near gales over the windier waters and channels through the week.

Strong trade winds will bring large and very rough surf along east facing shores through Monday night. A High Surf Warning has been issued for all exposed east facing shores through this time. Surf will slowly decline Tuesday into Wednesday but will still remain somewhat elevated, possibly advisory level Tuesday, through the remainder of the week. Trade winds will remain in the fresh to strong range from Tuesday through the end of the week.

Small to moderate north northwest to northwest swells will prevail through the week bringing minor surf to north and west facing shores. Surf along south facing shores will remain small with some small background south-southwest energy expected throughout the first half of the week. Select southern exposures exposed to the wind swell will likely see some larger waves as well.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Haleakala Summit- Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North- Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kohala-Kona-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Interior- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East- Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu- Kohala-Koolau Leeward-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka- Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Waianae Coast-Waianae Mountains- Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Warning until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Winter Storm Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Big Island Summits.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.