textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A breezy to windy trade wind pattern will persist through at least Wednesday, then gradually wane through the rest of the week. Moisture embedded in the trades will allow showers to favor windward and mauka areas. An overall wetter pattern is possible this weekend as additional moisture is drawn over the island chain.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 802 PM HST Tue Feb 17 2026

No major changes to the forecast this evening, as things remain on track, particularly with the strong wind hazard and incoming showers tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 358 PM HST Tue Feb 17 2026/

At the surface, strong high pressure remains centered north- northeast of the islands, with a nearly-stationary front located about 600 miles northwest of Kauai. Meanwhile, strong subsidence remains in place over the state. Similar to the early morning soundings, the afternoon 00z upper air soundings from Lihue and Hilo again showed subsidence driven by strong dry advection in the mid-levels, supporting dewpoint depressions on the order of 50 C around 700 mb. Winds across the state have reached advisory levels (sustained speeds of 30-39 mph and/or gusts 50-57 mph) across portions of islands at times today, especially over higher terrain, passes, and areas immediately south through west of mountains. Latest observations show that the strongest gusts have occurred over the typically windy locations of Maui County and the Big Island, and an advanced scatterometer pass showed 25 kt winds or greater over nearly all Hawaiian waters, with Gales in the windier waters and channels surrounding Maui County and the Big Island.

Though active subsidence will ease tonight into Wednesday, the mid-level dry airmass will remain in place in support of a strong inversion. Gradient winds are expected to remain nearly unchanged as the surface high remains to our north and the front remains nearly stationary to our west. Based on this, the Wind Advisory has been extended in time through 6pm HST Wednesday. By Thursday, winds will begin to decrease, but remain locally strong throughout the rest of the work week.

As far as precipitation is concerned, little change is expected over the next few days, with occasional showers and clouds embedded within the trades favoring windward and mauka areas over the next several days. Things begin to get a bit more interesting near the end of the week, as an overall pattern shift could ultimately lead to several days of wet and unstable trade this weekend into early next week.

Latest guidance remains in good agreement that southeast flow in the lower levels could expand moisture over the islands late this week, then stall it over the state for at least Saturday and Sunday. While it is still very early, this will be closely monitored for potential flooding that could develop in this scenario. As the previous discussion pointed out, however, forecast confidence will largely depend on the expected strength of trades, which will in turn modulate forward motion of showers. The latest guidance continues to indicate that the islands could reside somewhere along the gradient between stronger trades to the east and light southeast flow to the west (though where exactly this sets up could make a large difference in rainfall potential for the islands). Still too early for specifics as there remains a lot of room for error, but something to continue monitoring throughout the rest of the week.

AVIATION

Gusty trade winds will continue, with light shower activity possible along windward sides of the islands. Conditions may briefly degrade to MVFR under windward showers.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo moderate turbulence below 7000 feet over leeward sides of the islands as a result of the gusty winds.

MARINE

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will continue to drift farther south through Wednesday and keep strong and gusty trade winds in the regional forecast through at least Thursday. A Gale Warning has been extended through Wednesday afternoon for windier waters and channels around the island of Maui as satellite winds continue to show gale force winds through these areas. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Hawaiian Coastal Waters outside of the Gale Warning area. A slight decrease in trade wind speeds may occur Friday and Saturday as the high merges with another strong high developing far north of the state.

Surf heights along east facing shorelines will remain solidly within High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria through at least midweek. The HSA is in effect through Wednesday night as strong upstream trades are expected to persist.

Surf will remain small along north, west and south facing shores through Saturday, as no significant swells are forecast into the weekend. However, the arrival of a small medium-period northwest swell may bring a slight uptick in surf along north-facing shores late Wednesday through Friday.

In the extended range forecast, forerunners from the next moderate to large, long period north (010-020 degree) swell appear to arrive by late Sunday night, building swiftly to advisory levels by next week Monday, and then slowly declining into the middle of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for east facing shores of Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, Maui, and the Big Island.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Waianae Mountains- Lanai Mauka-Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Koolau Leeward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast- Molokai North-Molokai West-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South- Windward Haleakala-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Channel-Oahu Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for sll remaining Hawaiian coastal waters.