textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trade winds will continue into next week, bringing showers to the usual windward areas. A slight increase in showers is expected Sunday and Sunday night. Winds will increase through the weekend and into next week as the pressure gradient strengthens over the islands. Easterly trade winds will become southeast Tuesday night and remain that way through the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 340 PM HST Fri Feb 13 2026

Isolated light showers were noted on radar over most windward areas this afternoon, with the greatest concentration of showers over Kauai. Skies were mostly cloudy windward and variably cloudy leeward. Winds were generally 5-15 mph with gusts 15-25 mph.

Little has changed in the short term forecast. Trade winds will continue through the weekend, and strengthen through Sunday. They will then continue at that slightly stronger speed well into next week. An upper level trough appears approaching from the northwest around midweek appears strong enough to turn our surface winds to out of the southeast Tuesday night. This trough is forecast to weaken as it swings through the state late next week and into next weekend, but it should be enough to keep our winds out of the southeast through that period. Typically, this would increase heat, humidity, and showers. But in this case, models do not expect that to happen. It appears that the flow originates northeast of the islands and does not come out of the tropics to our south.

AVIATION

Issued at 340 PM HST Fri Feb 13 2026

A moderate to breezy easterly trade wind regime is expected to continue through tonight, with embedded showers primarily affecting windward and mauka areas. MVFR conditions are expected within these showers, and VFR conditions will prevail elsewhere.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of terrain below 7kft. These conditions are expected to continue through the weekend.

AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscurations for Kauai. These conditions are expected to continue at least through the evening.

MARINE

Issued at 340 PM HST Fri Feb 13 2026

Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough conditions into next week. Trade winds are expected to slightly strengthen this weekend especially on Sunday, where we could see gales over the windier waters such as the Alenuihaha Channel. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for all coastal water due to a combination of winds and seas. A Gale Watch may be needed for the Alenuihaha Channel on Sunday and possibly the Pailolo Channel due to the strengthening trades.

Current northwest swell will continue to hold through tonight with a gradually decrease expected over the weekend. Minimal energy is expected from the northwest during the first half of next week, although select exposures should see some wind swell.

Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all waters into this weekend and early next week due to the persistent strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. Surf heights could reach advisory thresholds on Saturday, but more likely by Sunday.

Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade wind swell for select exposures.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.