textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A ridge to the north and Tropical Storm Pena passing far to the south will maintain A breezy and gusty trade wind pattern over the islands through today. Trades will ease briefly during the first half of the week to more typically speeds before picking back up during the second half of the week as a strong high surface pressure settles north of the state. Pockets of moisture riding in on the trades will focus showers over the windward and mauka areas through mid week. A band of moisture may move through the state from the north during the second half of week.

DISCUSSION

As of this morning, Tropical Storm Pena continues to pass several hundred miles south of the state as a ridge of high pressure remains to the north, generating breezy and gusty trade winds statewide. Satellite and radar imagery show low level bands of clouds with embedded light to brief moderate showers focusing mainly along windward and mauka areas with a few showers spilling over to leeward areas of Oahu and Maui County. Rainfall totals for the past 6 hours were highest for windward Big Island with totals ranging between 0.30 to 0.80 inches of rainfall. Notably, Kona received nearly 3 inches of rainfall from a small area of brief moderate to heavy rainfall, but has since dissipated. Rainfall totals elsewhere were modest. Showers should trend down during the day today before picking backup tonight. Winds will remain breezy and gusty as Tropical Storm Pena tracks westward and the ridge of high pressure remains nearly stationary.

Forecast remains on track with winds easing briefly to more typical trade wind speeds Monday and Tuesday as Pena shift far southwest of the state and the ridge to the north weakens. Mid to upper level ridging will generate fairly stable trade wind pattern limiting pockets of showers to windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight and early morning hours.

Winds will strengthen again across the state Wednesday as a strong surface high builds north of the islands. During the second half of the week, a cold front may push an band of moisture from north to south across the state, contributing to the uptick in showers followed by a brief gusty winds. There is general agreement with the GFS and ECMWF with the front reaching the islands Thursday, but differences with regards to the amount of shower activity to accompanying the front and strength of winds.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds through the day. A drier regional air mass will limit areal shower coverage. Better organized showers passing across windward terminals may produce infrequent, short-lived MVFR ceilings and visibilities.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence within the lee of higher terrain.

MARINE

Fresh to strong trade winds will prevail through the remainder of this weekend as high pressure remains in place north of the state as Tropical Storm Pena continues to move westward, passing several hundred miles south of the Big Island. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect through tonight for most Hawaiian Waters due to a combination of winds and elevated seas. Winds are expected to ease slightly late Monday and Tuesday as the ridge to our north erodes and Pena moves away to the southwest. The SCA will likely be trimmed back to the typical windy waters around Big Island and Maui at that time. Trade winds are then expected to strengthen again on Wednesday as a new high builds to the north. A surface trough will move into the region on Thursday from the north, bringing unsettled clouds and showers across the coastal waters.

A medium period swell out of the north-northwest (325 to 340 degree) continues to build into Hawaiian waters. This swell will peak through the morning hours, increasing surf heights just below advisory levels. The swell will gradually decrease from tonight into Monday before another small to moderate swell fills in Monday night, keeping small to moderate surf in place through Tuesday. A large northwest to north-northwest swell is then forecast to arrive late Wednesday into Thursday and could bring surf near or right at warning levels.

A small south-southwest swell will keep surf around the average today before declining Monday through the remainder of the week.

Rough surf along east-facing shores will hold at or above seasonal average through this weekend. Surf will decrease slightly by early next week as trades begin to ease before increasing again by Wednesday.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 345 AM HST Sun Nov 8 2026

Breezy trade winds continue through today, with some weakening Monday and Tuesday. A new ridge building north of the state midweek will boost trade winds again across the state. Upper and mid level ridging will keep a drier and more stable airmass in place for the next several days, decreasing humidity levels. Fire weather conditions will remain below critical thresholds through much of next week. Temperature inversion heights are expected to remain between 6,000 to 7,500 feet near Big Island.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.