textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Hurricane Nolo continues to slowly move to the north towards the Big Island, and is expected to make a turn to the west tonight. Moisture on the north side of Nolo will interact with the terrain of the Big Island and Maui, and could lead to significant flash flooding, particularly on the windward and southeast portions of the Big Island. Localized strong and gusty winds are possible statewide, with the highest winds expected on the Big Island due to the proximity to Nolo.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

No changes to the forecast this evening. Hurricane Nolo has become nearly stationary about 150 miles south of South Point on the Big Island. Gusts in excess of 50 mph have been reported over the Big Island and Maui in the last couple of hours. Some of the outer- most rainbands are beginning to move over the Big Island southeast slopes at 9pm. Nolo is expected to begin its turn to the west over the next several hours.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 455 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

High-level cloudiness with light showers prevailed across the Big Island this afternoon as Hurricane Nolo continues to move slowly north-northeast. The rest of the islands remained relatively quiet, aside from breeze conditions throughout the day.

Latest radar imagery shows rainbands associated with Nolo inching closer to the Big Island. These bands are expected to move through tonight into Saturday morning, producing periods of heavy rainfall that could lead to flash flooding and dangerous mudslides.

The latest National Hurricane Center track still indicates Nolo will make its closest approach late tonight before turning westward. Although forecast precipitation amounts for the state have been adjusted slightly downward, rainfall totals remain high enough to cause life-threatreninh flooding,especially across the Big Island. Other impacts are summarized in the marine and aviation sections.

Impacts from Nolo will worsen through tomorrow morning and persist through Saturday night. A slow improvement in weather conditions is expected on Sunday as Nolo moves away from the area.

By the middle of next week, troughing will draw Nolo north or northeastward to the west of Kauai. Toward the end of next week, light south-to-southeast wind flow is expected to prevail as the pressure gradient over the state weakens substantially.

AVIATION

Gusty trade winds continue across the islands with gusts peaking between 25 to 35 knots. Gusts up to 40 knots are most likely at the windiest sites. Winds may ease slightly overnight but kept the stronger winds as prevailing given continued trade shower activity and Hurricane Nolo to the south of the Big Island. Locally stronger winds are possible from Molokai south to the Big Island due to Hurricane Nolo. High resolution guidance suggests gusts reaching potentially as high as 45 to 50 knots Saturday afternoon and continuing through the end of the TAF period. North of Molokai, occasional trade showers continue across windward and mauka areas while heavier showers remain closer to the Big Island. Moderate to heavy rain is expected to continue impacting the Big Island as Hurricane Nolo remains just to its south. Occasional moderate to heavy showers from Hurricane Nolo will extend up through Molokai. Reductions in visibility and ceiling heights are expected during heavier showers with MVFR to IFR conditions likely.

AIRMET Sierra has been issued for IFR conditions across eastern Big Island, and will likely remain in effect through tonight. Additionally, AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for tempo mountain obscuration for eastern Kauai, Oahu, Molokai, and Maui through tonight.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate turbulence downwind of island terrain due to breezy trade winds. Expect this to continue through the forecast period. It is possible that an AIRMET for sustained 30 kt winds will be needed for the Big Island by Saturday as Nolo passes to the south.

TC SIGMET Oscar series covers Hurricane Nolo, and interests should continue to monitor for updates to this SIGMET.

MARINE

Issued at 455 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Hurricane Warnings around the Big Island and Tropical Storm Warnings around Maui County remain in effect as Hurricane Nolo inches northward. A Gale Watch is in effect for the remaining waters through Sunday. Nolo is still forecast to turn west well before reaching the Big Island or adjacent nearshore waters, but strong winds and high seas can nonetheless be expected well away from the storm itself.

South to southeast fresh swell emanating from Nolo will spread west across the southern nearshore waters as the system tracks west through early next week. The High Surf Advisory (HSA) for E and SE facing shores of the Big Island, Maui, and Molokai remains in effect and has been extended through Sunday. In addition, an HSA is now in effect for Kauai, Oahu, and Niihau beginning tonight due to strengthening trades. A small, long period NW swell fills in this weekend in maintenance of elevated surf along exposed shorelines into early next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 455 PM HST Fri Sep 25 2026

Winds will steadily increase as Hurricane Nolo moves closer. Very strong winds are possible on the Big Island, though heavy rainfall will likely mitigate fire danger over most areas. From Kauai to Maui County, rainfall over the last month has led to some improvement in fuels, but the gusty trade winds will produce moderate fire weather conditions over drier leeward areas through the weekend. Drier conditions are expected early next week, although winds will diminish substantially as pressure gradient weakens.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Wind Advisory from 6 AM Saturday to 6 PM HST Sunday for Central Oahu-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kauai East-Kauai Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Koolau Leeward- Koolau Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Waianae Coast- Waianae Mountains.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-Kauai East-Kauai South- Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast- Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Kohala-Kona-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward- Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North- Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala- South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Tropical Storm Watch for Haleakala Summit-Kahoolawe-Kipahulu- Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South-Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South-Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Hurricane Watch for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Warning for Big Island East-Big Island Interior- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

Tropical Storm Watch for Kaiwi Channel-Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.

Hurricane Watch for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters- Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Tropical Storm Warning for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Big Island Windward Waters.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Watch from 6 AM HST Saturday through Sunday afternoon for Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.