textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and light winds prevail through Thursday followed by a transition to a very windy and much wetter period Friday night into early next week. This could be a significant weather event with torrential rain and flooding, strong winds, and thunderstorms.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 314 AM HST Wed Feb 4 2026

Skies were partly cloudy early this morning, and no precipitation was observed by radar. Winds were light and out of the north to northeast, but will become southeast by this afternoon. Land breezes were noted (downsloping out of higher terrain), and winds will remain light enough this afternoon for sea breezes to develop. The High Wind Warning for the summits on Big Island has been cancelled.

Today will be partly to mostly sunny with limited light showers due to sea breezes possible, mainly on the Big Island. Our light winds are mainly due to a ridge aloft centered off to our southwest. A surface high was located just to our northwest this morning, and this feature will slowly slide off to the east. This will keep us with relatively light winds for the next couple of days, and the wind direction will become south to southwest Thursday.

This will help draw up plenty of moisture from the south. At the same time, a strong cold front will be pushed toward the state by an upper level trough. The front should reach Kauai County Friday and Oahu Friday night, then Maui County Saturday morning and the Big Island Saturday late afternoon or evening. Very cold air aloft will move in with the upper trough, yielding considerable instability. We have introduced a slight chance of thunderstorms to much of the area beginning Saturday and going through Sunday night. Strong trade winds will move in behind the front, gradually building from 15 to 20 mph Friday night into Saturday up to 30 and perhaps 35 mph Sunday through Monday. Upper level winds will be strong enough to help any thunderstorms that form become "organized", which means potentially long-lasting and relatively strong. Therefore, torrential rainfall leading to flooding and strong winds are possible with the stronger showers and any storms that form. The strong winds will likely mean faster-moving storms, which may limit the chance of flash flooding somewhat. But the chance is still high enough to be worth mentioning.

This could end up being a significant system that bears close watching as we move toward the weekend.

AVIATION

Issued at 314 AM HST Wed Feb 4 2026

VFR conditions expected, save for brief localized MVFR cigs in the Big Island and Maui County. Mostly clear skies and diurnal winds generally less than 15 kts will prevail as surface high pressure moves through the island chain through the next 24 hours.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE

Issued at 314 AM HST Wed Feb 4 2026 Moderate to fresh north to northeast breezes will briefly veer out of the east today as high pressure builds over the state. The pressure gradient will become weak enough to support localized afternoon sea breezes for Kauai and Oahu today. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected to return over the western end of the state during the second half of the week as the next cold front draws closer. Guidance shows this next front moving into the area late Friday through Saturday with strong- to near gale-force northeast winds filling in behind it late in the weekend through early next week. Ocean conditions will quickly respond and become rough due to a combination of winds and seas. In addition to the winds and seas, a wet pattern with locally heavy rainfall and potentially a few storms will accompany this front.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores of the smaller islands will remain well above warning levels today before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest reflect this trend and indicate the swell steadily easing overnight. Heights will dip below advisory levels for a brief period Thursday night into Friday, then return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving. For north facing shores of the Big Island, heights will remain around the advisory level today, then drop below tonight.

Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend, with heights potentially nearing the warning level during the peak by Monday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST this evening for Kauai North- Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau- Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.