textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 323 AM HST Wed Feb 11 2026

Strong high pressure north of the Hawaiian Islands will maintain breezy to locally windy trades supporting windward and mauka showers. As the high begins to meander northeastward, trades will ease a bit to a more moderate to breezy pattern, persisting through the rest of the week. Some models are hinting at unsettled weather returning to the islands by the weekend, but there's still a fair bit of uncertainty this far out.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 1027 AM HST Wed Feb 11 2026

The forecast issued earlier this morning remains on track. Visible satellite imagery shows drier air filtering across the region, with both low level and high level clouds thinning out, allowing more sunshine to poke through. However, there still remains a steady stream of low level clouds and showers upstream of the Big Island that is expected to continue to impact the windward (mostly north and east-facing) lower slopes and coasts through the day today. Trades will ease some by this afternoon, but remain moderate to breezy through Friday. In this pattern, as bands of moisture ride in on the trades, showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 323 AM HST Wed Feb 11 2026

Strong area of high pressure will remain anchored north of the islands while a trough of low pressure continues moving southwest away from the islands will help in maintaining breezy to locally windy trades, namely across the more wind-prone locations. Trades are progged to ease up in the next 12 to 24 hours though, transitioning to a more moderate to locally breezy regime for much of the state as the aforementioned area of high pressure meanders eastward.

Isolated showers persist across the eastern half of the state with lingering remnant moisture from earlier this week, expected to remain in the vicinity of the Big Island. Furthermore, the moisture will be deep enough to be a catalyst for wintry precipitation on the summits of the Big Island, where the temperature has been flirting around the cusp of freezing, supporting freezing rain and some accumulating snowfall. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for the Big Island summits through 6 PM HST today to account for any wintry precipitation.

A more typical trade wind pattern returns to round out the end of the standard work week, bringing periods of enhanced showers and increased clouds to windward and mauka locations. Model guidance has been hinting at the probability of some unsettled weather coming to the Hawaiian Islands during the weekend period. The American Model (GFS) and the European Model (ECMWF) continue to project a band of moisture remaining west of the islands throughout the weekend and even into early next week, suggesting the typical trade wind pattern will persist during this time, however, the GFS eventually brings the moisture over the islands while the ECMWF does not. Given this uncertainty, and for the sake of forecast continuity, will continue to advertise trade winds to prevail until details become more fruitful closer to the event.

AVIATION

Issued at 1027 AM HST Wed Feb 11 2026

Breezy trades with windward SHRA expected for the next few days. Low cigs and MVFR conds in heavier SHRA possible. VFR conds prevail elsewhere.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for N thru SE sections of Maui and the Big Island through today.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod to isol severe turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod turb between FL220 to FL380 over entire area.

Light icing remains possible in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

MARINE

Issued at 1027 AM HST Wed Feb 11 2026

Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough marine conditions across the state today and will likely continue through next week as another strong high builds far north of the state Friday into the weekend. The current strong to near gale force trade winds will ease slightly by Thursday before picking back up over the weekend. Small Craft Advisory is in effect across all waters due to the strong trade winds and seas in excess of 10 feet for exposed coastal waters.

Strong trade winds continue to bring advisory level surf to east facing shores today. Surf is expected to fall just below advisory levels by Thursday, but will remain rough and elevated for the foreseeable future. Trades are expected to restrengthen over the weekend into early next week, which will produce another round of advisory level surf and possibly warning level surf along east facing shores of Oahu and Kauai.

Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the weekend with smaller surf expected during the first half of next week. Currently we have a small northwest swell filling in today and will be followed by a slightly larger northwest swell Thursday into Friday. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.

Thunderstorms remain a possibility in the offshore waters to the west and northwest of the Hawaiian coastal waters, due to an upper level trough in the area. While this upper level feature is expected to weaken over the next couple of days, a new developing mid to upper level trough moving in from the northwest will maintain the possibility for thunderstorms through the weekend.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island East-Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu- Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West- Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala- Windward Haleakala.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.