textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A high pressure ridge to the north and Hurricane Lowell passing south of the Hawaiian Islands will keep breezy trade winds in the forecast today. Expect decreasing wind speed trends this weekend as a low pressure trough moving into the Central Pacific basin weakens the ridge north of the state. Periods of showers will favor windward mountain areas with brief passing showers over leeward zones. Hurricane Lowell will remain near major hurricane strength when it moves closer to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. Weather impacts such as high surf and heavy rain may extend hundreds of miles from the center of Hurricane Lowell.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

An update from NHC has Hurricane Lowell back up to Category 4, with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 930 mb. It was located 610 miles south of Lihue as of 830 AM HST. Latest forecast has it strengthening to Category 5 this afternoon.

The forecast track has been fairly stable overnight, currently showing a turn to the northwest Saturday night, and then to the north Sunday night. The eye is expected to pass by to the west of Kauai and Lihue Monday night as a Category 2 storm. There is still some uncertainty on the track, of course, as we are still over 72 hours from the approximate time of closest passage. Heavy rain is possible over all the islands, beginning as early as Sunday. The location and timing of heavy rain will depend on how the rain- banding sets up around Lowell, and will evolve Sunday through Tuesday. For now, rainfall amounts of 2 to 6 inches with isolated 10 inches are forecast.

No changes to the forecast are planned for this morning.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 515 AM HST Fri Sep 4 2026 Looking into the satellite imagery a long band of unsettled clouds with embedded showers are riding into the islands on the trade winds this morning. Periods of showers will continue to drift over the windward mountain slopes of each island through the morning hours. Elsewhere Hurricane Lowell roughly 600 miles south of Oahu and Kauai continues to drift slowly westward this morning. A gradual decrease in the forward speed of Lowell remains in the forecast for the next day or two, followed by a sharp turn to the north on Sunday.

Hurricane Lowell will remain near major hurricane strength when it moves closer to the western Hawaiian Islands late Monday and Monday night. There remains a risk for high surf, storm surge, strong winds and heavy rainfall impacts for portions of Hawaii including in particular the islands of Niihau and Kauai. Deep tropical moisture will advect northward across all island, producing warm and humid weather conditions with increasing heavy rainfall trends from Sunday into Tuesday as Hurricane Lowell turns northward. Initial storm total rainfall estimates range from 2 to 8 inches statewide with locally higher amounts of around 10 inches possible along terrain favored south and southeast slopes. Please continue to closely monitor the weather forecast for early next week as the track and associated impacts with Hurricane Lowell will likely evolve over time.

High pressure builds back over the islands from Tuesday afternoon onward as a wet trade wind pattern with periods of passing showers sets up across the state into the end of next week.

AVIATION

A breezy and stable trade wind flow will persist into Saturday as Hurricane Lowell passes about 600 miles south to south-southwest of Kauai. AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low-level turbulence south through west of terrain and will likely remain posted for the same areas through Sunday.

A narrow band of moisture is producing widespread MVFR conditions along windward slopes, where AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration. Expect improvement this afternoon.

MARINE

A surface high persists north of the Hawaiian Islands and will slowly drift east through the weekend. Currently, Hurricane Lowell is passing near 500 nm south of the islands as it continues to track west. The interaction between the two has strengthened the trade winds across the coastal waters to fresh to locally near gale force. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) is in effect for all coastal waters through Saturday and will likely be extended.

Hurricane Lowell is expected to turn northward this weekend, confidence is growing for hurricane conditions in the offshore waters west of 160W on Sunday through potentially Tuesday. How close it gets to the state, is yet to be determined. As for Hurricane Karina it is expected to weaken and pass to the north and northeast of the state.

Swells from Hurricane Lowell are filling in and will remain elevated above High Surf Advisory (HSA) conditions through Saturday. A large, medium-period east swell from Hurricane Karina is filling in and will continue though the weekend, producing HSA level surf along east facing shores. The HSA is in effect for all south and east facing shores of all islands as well as the west facing shores of the Big Island.

The swell from Lowell will gradually veer from south to southwest early next week. While the forecast for swells and seas for next week will highly depend on the eventual track and intensity of Lowell, confidence is beginning to increase for the potential of extra- large surf (exceeding warning levels) along south and western exposures early next week. Coinciding also with monthly high tides, this will create the potential for impacts to harbor entrances, channels, as well as coastal properties and infrastructure including roadways.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 515 AM HST Fri Sep 4 2026 Trade wind speeds will begin to trend lower as the ridge north of the islands slowly weakens. Periods of passing showers will mainly impact windward mountain slopes for the next few days. Higher humidity levels will continue to keep conditions under critical fire weather thresholds into next week. The temperatures inversion heights near Maui and the Big Island will range from 6,000 to 7,000 feet elevation today.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Ewa Plain-Honolulu Metro-Kahoolawe-Kauai East-Kauai South-Kauai Southwest-Kipahulu-Kona-Koolau Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West- Molokai Leeward South-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Olomana-South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry- Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.