textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Light to moderate south to southwest winds have developed over the islands and will continue to diminish through tonight as Tropical Storm Lowell moves farther northwest of the area. Aside from a showers over the Big Island and east Maui, rainfall should be limited tonight. A diffuse band of moisture will move onto Big Island Wednesday and may bring a renewed threat of heavy showers, while sea breezes trigger spotty afternoon showers across the rest of the state. Trade winds will slowly build over the state late Wednesday and Thursday, but conditions will remain somewhat wet. Drier trade wind weather is expected to develop Thursday night and Friday.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Latest IR satellite imagery loop shows the exposed low level center of Tropical Storm Lowell drifting northward and existing our offshore waters zone, several hundred miles north northwest of Kauai. An area of enhanced residual moisture can also be seen extending southeast from Lowell down to over near Maui County and the Big Island. This moisture, along with light to locally moderate southerly or southeast flow, will keep the chance of scattered showers going tonight for Big island and the eastern slopes of Haleakala on Maui. Elsewhere, a drier atmosphere should dominate and allow for more limited shower coverage. By Wednesday afternoon, diurnal heating, along with the abundant moisture still draped over the eastern portion of the state, will aid in more robust showers over the Big Island interior, along with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Similar conditions could occur over Haleakala on Maui, but confidence is lower. Thus, the Flood Watch will remain in effect through Wednesday afternoon for Big Island. Additionally, diurnally driven sea breezes will bring showers to mainly interior regions of Lanai, Molokai, Oahu, and Kauai. The short term forecast looked in decent shape, so no changes to the forecast were made on this evening update.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 406 PM HST Tue Sep 8 2026 Hurricane Lowell continues to move northward away from the state, and its center is now located roughly 275 miles north-northwest of Kauai. Light to moderate south to southwest winds persist across much of the state, producing relatively light showers over interior sections. The exception is Big Island, where isolated heavy showers have developed under daytime heating.

Winds will continue to diminish into Wednesday, allowing a land and sea breeze pattern to produce interior afternoon showers over most areas. We are not expecting significant rainfall from Kauai to Maui overnight, but a diffuse band of moisture and convergence near and just east of Big Island could maintain shower activity there. The Flood Watch was cancelled for most islands but was extended for Big Island, as the band of moisture is expected to drift westward and may help trigger heavy showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday afternoon. Across the rest of the state, land breezes may lead to isolated heavy showers in the afternoon, and while isolated flooding may be possible, the risk has been deemed too low to continue the Flood Watch.

Trade winds will slowly build over the state late Wednesday and Thursday, but conditions will remain somewhat wet. Drier trade wind weather is expected to develop Thursday night and Friday. An upper level trough may create some instability with the trade wind flow this weekend.

AVIATION

Southerly flow remains over the islands with now Tropical Storm Lowell north of the main Hawaiian Islands. Lowell will continue to weaken and move further away from the islands, and through much of Wednesday, the southerly flow will remain. Periods of MVFR conditions are likely, mostly over Kauai and the Big Island where pockets of moisture are moving through. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration remains in effect for these islands. Some improvement is possible overnight, however anticipating the AIRMET to remain in place much of the night.

With light southerly winds expected, not anticipating any AIRMETs for turbulence through Wednesday.

MARINE

Tropical Storm Lowell is now beginning to exit the offshore waters to the north. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for the waters around Kauai for 10 foot seas through midnight as seas are forecast to drop rapidly. For the western offshore waters, conditions are expected to improve late tonight as Lowell moves further north, and the Tropical Storm Warning is likely to end by Wednesday morning. For Wednesday, light and variable winds will gradually transition to light to moderate easterly trade winds through the remainder of the week.

Surf along south facing shores has diminished below advisory criteria, but remain choppy from a mix of southwest and west swells from Lowell that continue to quickly fade. These are still producing advisory level surf for west facing shores of the Big Island this evening, but these are expected to diminish by the morning hours. A moderate, medium-period south swell originating southeast of New Zealand will linger for the next few days, keeping south shore surf heights from dipping below the September averages (5 ft) until the weekend when surf heights will become small.

Surf along east facing shores remains elevated tonight but will approach more seasonal levels on Wednesday. That swell will then fade gradually through the next several days. Surf along north facing shores experienced a solid rise due to Lowell this morning. This swell will quickly fade through the week as Lowell weakens and tracks away from the islands.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 406 PM HST Tue Sep 8 2026 Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due rather light winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Big Island on Wednesday afternoon and possibly Thursday afternoon. Temperature inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through Wednesday afternoon for Big Island East-Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island Summits-Kohala-Kona.

High Surf Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Kohala-Kona.

Small Craft Advisory until midnight HST tonight for Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters.