textproduct: Honolulu

UPDATE

At 2 AM HST, The National Hurricane Center has downgraded Hurricane Lala to a tropical storm. Thus, the Hurricane Warning that was in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters has now been downgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SYNOPSIS

Hurricane Lala has moved west of the Big Island this evening and will continue moving west-northwest (to the south of the other islands) through Sunday evening. High winds, potentially flooding rains, and high surf impacts will be felt statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state. Trade wind weather will begin Monday and extend through next week.

PREV DISCUSSION

/ISSUED 1109 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026/ FXHW60 PHFO 160909 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 1109 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026

SYNOPSIS... Hurricane Lala has moved west of the Big Island this evening and will continue moving west-northwest (to the south of the other islands) through Sunday evening. High winds, potentially flooding rains, and high surf impacts will be felt statewide. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state. Trade wind weather will begin Monday and extend through next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE... As of 11 PM HST tonight, Hurricane Lala was located about 65 miles west of Kailua-Kona moving northwest at around 15 mph. Radar, along with local rain guages, continue to indicate pockets of very heavy rainfall lifting northward over the southeastern slopes of Mauna Loa from Naalehu to Volcano. Rain rates reached the 2 to nearly 5 inch per hour at its peak at the rain guages of Kaiholena, Lower Kahuku CS, Kona Hema, Nene Cabin CS, Kahuku, and Kapapala Ranch Near Pahala. These extreame rates, along with local law enforcement reporting two houses being swept away, led to an issuance of a Flash Flood Warning for a portion of southeast Big Island near Naalehu in the Kau district. The warning had an emegency tag due its severity. Upslope areas of windward Big Island were still averaging generally 0.5 to 1 inch an hour rates. As the night progesses and Hurricane Lala edges west of the Big Island, heavy rainbands should fill into Maui County, then Oahu and Kauai by morning. Winds thus far have been equally relentless with many stations on the Big Island reporting hurricane force gusts. Winds on smaller islands have been strong as well, leading to reports of trees down with areas of power outages, esspecially over and leeward of terrain. Forecast remained largely on track so no major updates for this package. See previous AFD for more details on Lala's expected impacts.

PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 511 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 The main forecast concern through late Sunday will be impacts from Tropical Storm Lala. As of 5 PM HST, Hurricane Lala was located about 30 miles southwest of South Point moving northwest around 9 mph. The center of the eye did not cross over land, so there is no official "landfall" for this hurricane.

The center of rotation can be seen by radar as it drifts off the southwest coast of the Big Island. Based on the latest forecast from the National Hurricane Center, Lala is expected to move west-northwest, with the center of circulation remaining south of the smaller islands. Remember impacts can occur well outside the center of the storm. Please stay up to date on the latest forecasts, and prepare for the impacts described below.

STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...Damaging tropical storm force winds (39 mph to 73 mph) continue across the Big Island and Maui County, Oahu, and should begin in Kauai tonight. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Big Island and surrounding waters. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the rest of the state and surrounding waters. Localized areas damaging winds have been observed over and downwind of the mountainous terrain, even well away from the tropical cyclone center. These localized strong winds and gusts will also be felt in advance of the arrival of Lala and should be kept in mind as last minute preparations are being made. Winds over 100 mph have been observed on the summits of the Big Island and Maui, and travel is strongly discouraged.

HEAVY RAINFALL...Heavy rainfall is ongoing on the Big Island and Maui County, and will spread to Oahu and Kauai this evening and last into Sunday. Orographic enhancement will result in locally higher rainfall totals where moist tropical flow interacts with island terrain. Flash flooding and rapidly rising streams have been observed and will will remain possible. The location of heaviest rain so far has been over windward portions of the Big Island and Maui. The latest forecast for windward portion of the Big Island has an additional 6 to 10 inches of rain, with locally higher amounts. Rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches are possible on windward Maui and up 8 inches of rainfall could occur across the remainder of the island chain, again with localized higher amounts. While the highest rainfall amounts will be focused over windward areas, leeward areas will also have a significant flood risk. Heavy rain could persist into Monday for some areas. A Flood Watch remains in effect for all islands.

LARGE AND ROUGH SURF...Lala has generated a large easterly swell that is bringing large surf to exposed east and southeast facing shores. A High Surf Warning remains in effect for east facing shores of Big Island, Maui, Molokai and Oahu, and a High Surf Advisory is posted for east facing shores of Kauai. Very large and extremely rough seas will produce damaging surf, significant beach erosion, and overwash across vulnerable coastal infrastructure, mainly on the Big Island of Hawaii. Highest storm surge up to 3 feet is forecast for the eastern side of the Big Island.

In anticipation of critical new updates with each of the advisory packages issued by the National Hurricane Center (NHC), the NWS Honolulu will continue delaying the issuance of our typical forecast package products (AFD, SFT, PFM, ZFP, SPF, CWF, etc.) until after the release of NHC's suite of products, to incorporate the latest and most up-to-date information on Tropical Storm Lala.

Humid trade winds will take over Monday and last through the next week in the wake of Lala's departure.

AVIATION... Hurricane Lala continues moving WNW and is west of the Big Island. TAF sites state wide will experience strong winds gusting to tropical storm force and heavy SHRA with isol tstms. IFR to MVFR cigs/vsbys will be common in heavier SHRA.

AIRMET SIERRA is in effect for IFR for Oahu through the Big Island. This will change as Lala continues to move up the state.

AIRMET TANGO is in effect for mod to isol svr turb lee of terrain. TANGO is also in effect for SFC winds greater than 30 kts for Molokai to the Big Island and may need augmented to account for the movement of Lala.

MARINE... At 10 PM HST, Hurricane Lala is moving northwest at 15 knots and its eye is currently located approximately 50 nm southwest of Kailua-Kona on Big Island. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for all waters surrounding Big Island and a Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the remaining Hawaiian nearshore waters.

High Surf Warnings will remain in effect for all east-facing shores with the exception of Kauai where an High Surf Advisory remains in effect. East-facing surf on Big Island and Maui County will decline to advisory levels going into late Sunday morning. Oahu and Kauai east-facing shore surf will remain above warning and advisory heights, respectively, through the morning hours. There may need to be an afternoon advisory extensions for the smaller islands.

North-facing surf will remain rough Sunday as a result of short period, wind wave driven chop in tandem with a lingering east swell wrap. South-facing shore surf will stay below advisory thresholds but remain elevated from a combination of lingering medium period south swell and Lala short period east swell. South shores will likely experience a minor boost in surf from trailing short period east swell energy from Lala as it travels into the far west offshore waters Monday morning. Longer period south swell energy generated from gales just east of New Zealand will begin arriving late this week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 511 PM HST Sat Aug 15 2026 Increasing humidity and rainfall with Lala will remove fire weather concerns through the next week. The temperature inversion will not be present tonight.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Flood Watch through late tonight for Niihau-Kauai Leeward-Kauai Mountains-Waianae Coast-Oahu North Shore-Olomana-Central Oahu- Waianae Mountains-Kauai North-Kauai East-Kauai South-East Honolulu-Honolulu Metro-Ewa Plain-Koolau Windward-Koolau Leeward.

High Surf Advisory until 2 PM HST this afternoon for Niihau- Olomana-Maui Windward West-Kauai East-Kauai South-Koolau Windward-Molokai Windward-Molokai Southeast-Windward Haleakala- Kipahulu-South Haleakala-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East- Big Island North.

Tropical Storm Warning for all Hawaii islands-

Flood Watch until 6 AM HST early this morning for Lanai Mauka- Kahoolawe-Maui Windward West-Maui Leeward West-Haleakala Summit- Kona-Kohala-Big Island Interior-Big Island Summits-Molokai-Lanai Windward-Lanai Leeward-Lanai South-Maui Central Valley North- Maui Central Valley South-Windward Haleakala-Kipahulu-South Maui/Upcountry-South Haleakala-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast-Big Island East-Big Island North.

Tropical Storm Warning for all Hawaiian waters-