textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Locally breezy trade winds will weaken to moderate levels today and Wednesday, then strengthen Thursday into the weekend. Showers will continue to favor windward and mauka areas, with showers more common today and Wednesday compared to later in the week or this coming weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

With this mid-morning update, clouds and showers are still favoring Kauai and Oahu as a batch of moisture rides in on the trades. Looking upstream, this activity will likely continue for the next couple of hours. Drier air will continue to move across the eastern half of the state through the early afternoon, but some clusters of clouds and showers seen upstream on satellite imagery will likely move into the windward areas of the Big Island and Maui by sometime this late afternoon or evening. This morning's forecast remains on track, so no changes were made with this update.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 240 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026 Radar and satellite show showers and clouds increasing as of 3 AM HST as an area of increasing moisture moves into the state. Winds continue to decrease in speed, and this trend is expected to continue through Wednesday.

A large surface high to the north will help keep trade winds blowing for the coming week, but wind speeds will decrease today through Wednesday before increasing again Thursday and remaining moderate into the weekend. Showers will increase today (as we are already seeing this morning), tonight, and Wednesday before drier air moves in and reduces showers from Thursday onward. As is typical for trade winds, the majority of showers will be windward and mauka.

Models have been consistently showing an increase in potential tropical systems in the central and eastern Pacific in the next couple of weeks, but so far no storms appear headed toward the state. However, with El Nino picking up steam and now forecast to reach record or near-record strength, now would be a great time to make sure you are prepared in case that changes.

AVIATION

Trades will weaken slightly and veer out of a more easterly direction through tonight. Downstream radar and satellite imagery suggest that a band of moisture will focus more widespread showers over Kauai and Oahu today into tonight with periods of MVFR conditions likely. Showers will primarily impact windward areas, with some spillover into leeward sites possible. Otherwise and elsewhere, VFR is broadly anticipated with scattered windward showers.

AIRMET Sierra is currently in effect for mountain obscuration over north through east facing portions of Oahu due to widespread low clouds and showers. This AIRMET may need to be expanded to include Kauai later this morning.

MARINE

Issued at 240 AM HST Tue Jul 14 2026 Trade winds will gradually ease today as the high pressure north of the islands lifts northeast and weakens. The Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been cancelled as winds have dropped below criteria. These lighter trades should continue through Wednesday night, then may increase a bit Thursday and Friday as high pressure northeast of the islands drops a bit further south and tightens up the local pressure gradient.

The current small, long-period southwest swell will gradually decline through the middle of the week. A series of overlapping small south and southwest swell should produce some rideable surf through next weekend, with perhaps a more sizable south swell moving in early next week.

Surf along east-facing shores will steadily decline through Wednesday. Surf will then hold steady at slightly below seasonal averages along east facing shores through the weekend.

A series of small, long to medium period west to west-northwest swells generated by former Super Typhoon Bavi will be possible throughout the rest of the week. Otherwise, no significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.

Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect through 6 PM this evening.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.