textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A surface ridge building north of the islands will allow moderate to locally breezy trade winds to return to the islands this evening. Rainfall will be limited into Saturday due to an upper level ridge over the islands. However low level moisture riding in on the trades will bring more typical windward and mauka showers by the end of the weekend into early next week.

DISCUSSION

A low pressure system east-northeast of the islands, combined with low about 1000 miles north-northwest of the islands are helping to disrupt the trade wind flow. However the low to the east-northeast will continue to weaken today as it moves to the east away from the islands. The low to the north- northwest will lift to the north. As this happens, the ridge to the north will strengthen, and moderate to locally breezy trades will filter back over the islands tonight into Friday. The global models agree on mid level ridging over the region which will help to maintain a stable airmass, limiting rainfall totals over the next few days.

The global models are in good agreement that moisture from the aforementioned low will get caught up in the trade wind flow over the weekend, and make its way into the islands. This will help us return to a more typical trade wind weather pattern with some heavier showers over the windward and mauka areas, along with the clouds and showers that form over the Kona slopes during the afternoon from Sunday into early next week.

AVIATION

Moderate northeasterly trade winds will prevail over the islands over the next several days. VFR conditions are expected, with isolated showers and brief MVFR conditions possible for primarily windward and mountain sites. No AIRMETs are in effect.

MARINE

A ridge of high pressure far north of the state will maintain moderate to fresh trade winds through much of next week. A weak trough moving over the state this weekend into early next week will cause the trade winds to briefly weaken and shift more easterly and will bring an increase of showers especially over windward waters. Brief periods of locally strong winds will be possible over the windier areas around Maui County and the Big Island through next week.

A pair of gale lows in the North Pacific will send a series of small northwest to north-northwest swells Friday night into the first half of next week. These swells should help maintain near average surf along north facing shores into next week. A storm- force low developing this weekend near the Aleutian Islands should send a slightly larger northwest swell towards the middle of next week.

The current short to medium period north-northeast swell will continue to decline this evening. A small fetch of strong northeast winds associated with the weak low northeast of the state, could provide some reinforcing short-period swell Friday into Saturday. Otherwise, below average surf is expected along east facing shores next week due to the lack of strong trade winds locally or upstream of the state.

Small background energy from the west will continue to linger the next few days and fade out this weekend. A small southwest bump from the Tasman Sea that passed across American Samoa's 51209 buoy yesterday is expected to arrive this weekend. No significant south swells are expected through the first half of next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.