textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to breezy trade winds will prevail through the week as high pressure holds far north of the islands. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas through at least the middle of next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Latest observations continue to display a shallow band of moisture moving toward the Hawaiian Islands from the west, producing shower activity across predominately windward and mauka locations of most islands as well as the Kona slopes of the Big Island. Rainfall accumulation has been limited to under a tenth of an inch per hour, though some locally higher amounts have been recorded in areas where heavier showers have been present. The current forecast continues to describe the situation well, therefore no amendments were needed for this evening's update.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 324 PM HST Fri Jul 3 2026 A broad 1031 mb surface high remains centered roughly 1300 miles north of Kauai while a ridge aloft holds over the state. As a result, a moderate to breezy and stable trade wind flow persists across the island chain. A shallow band of moisture will graze Oahu this afternoon and produce continued increased shower activity on windward Kauai this afternoon and tonight. Based on recent trends, the wetter portions of windward Kauai will experience rainfall of mainly a half of an inch or less tonight. A similar batch of moisture will impact windward Big Island later tonight and early Saturday. Elsewhere, expect continued modest windward rainfall tonight, followed by slightly drier conditions on Saturday.

A slight increase in the breezy trade winds is expected by Sunday or Monday as the high to the north builds to around 1034 mb. Stable conditions will persist, limiting shower activity to windward and mauka areas through the middle of next week.

Remnant moisture from Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may reach the state on continued breezy trades and cause an increase in shower activity late Thursday or next Friday.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low clouds and showers will bring MVFR conditions to windward and mauka areas at times, with VFR conditions prevailing in leeward locales.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of most islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the night.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 324 PM HST Fri Jul 3 2026 A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region into much of next week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island remains has been extended into Monday. Minor fluctuations in wind speeds may allow for brief periods of additional zones to fall into the SCA coverage area over the next several days.

A small, long period south swell hold through tonight keeping surf heights just below south shore summertime average surf heights. Another overlapping moderate, long period south- southwest swell will fill in Saturday, boosting surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade from Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 324 PM HST Fri Jul 3 2026 Moderate to locally near critical fire weather conditions are expected to develop during the weekend and will persist through early next week. High pressure north of the state will produce locally breezy trade winds, with the strongest winds expected to develop Sunday or Monday. A slightly drier air mass will move in on Saturday, causing relative humidity to fall to around 45 per cent each afternoon. Fuel conditions, as measured by the Keetch Byram Drought Index, will remain below the critical threshold.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.