textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

High pressure north and northeast of the islands will continue to deliver windward and mauka showers on breezy to windy trades through early next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 900 AM HST Tue Feb 10 2026

Westward push of dry air in the 850-700mb layer giving an extra downward push in maintainence of downsloping winds this morning. The Wind Advisory remains in effect for all islands, with the greatest risk of strong winds in the typical windy areas/acceleration zones and locations west of terrain. Gusts to 50+ mph will be common in such locations in Maui County and the Big Island today while advisory-threshold gusts will be quite hard to come by over Kauai and Oahu. For that reason, the Wind Advisory has been cancelled for those two islands.

A band of moisture embedded in the trades lurks immediately upstream of the islands below the overcast cloud deck. These showers will pivot through the area this afternoon and tonight and are modeled to become particularly focused over Windward Big Island and Maui. With sub-freezing temperatures on the Big Island summits, the potential exists for deep trade wind showers to deposit freezing rain on the summits as moisture deepens late tonight into early Wednesday. With ample mid-level mositure in place, also included a chance of snow which likely becomes the more dominant ptype on Wednesday as interior convection develops. A Winter Weather Advisory will most likely be issued this afternoon for tonight through Wednesday.

PREV DISCUSSION

Currently at the surface, a trough low pressure is located several miles southwest of the islands, while a 1034 mb high is centered several hundred miles to the north-northeast of the state. The resulting pressure gradient remains very tight early this morning, with windy conditions prevailing across the entire island chain. Infrared satellite imagery shows mostly cloudy to overcast conditions, with radar imagery showing scattered to numerous showers moving into windward slopes and coasts, particularly over Kauai. Main short term focus revolves around rain chances and the strong trades.

Strong high pressure will hold in place north of the islands today and tonight, keeping breezy to windy conditions in place across the island chain. A Wind Advisory remains in effect for all islands through 6 PM this evening, and there is the potential this may need to be extended for portions of the area through early Wednesday. The trades should ease up some late in the week and over the weekend, but breezy conditions will continue for much of the state.

As for the other weather details, a band of deeper moisture will sink southward through the islands today through early Wednesday, keeping a bit more showery trade wind pattern in place across the state. The moisture will be deep enough and temperatures cold enough, that some more snow could affect the Big Island summits above 12,000 feet mainly tonight into early Wednesday. A Winter Weather Advisory could be required for the high elevation summits later today.

Some drier air appears to appears to move in for the end of the work week, bringing a decrease in the trade wind showers. There remains some uncertainty regarding the potential for some unsettled weather over the weekend. The latest model solutions have trended further west compared with their solutions from 24 hours ago, so we will continue to stick with continuity and advertise a typical trade wind pattern until details become more clear.

AVIATION

A strong, broad area of high pressure remains north of the Hawaiian Islands and will continue to generate strong to near gale trades through the rest of today before gradually weakening to a more breezy trade wind pattern. Shower activity and increased cloud cover also continues, predominately favoring windward and mauka areas, which may create MVFR conditions at times. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions to prevail across the remainder of the state.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc over all smaller islands and windward portions of the Big Island.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for tempo mod isol sev turb below 070 for leeward sides of the islands and mod tempo turb between FL240 to FL380 over entire area.

Light icing is expected in cloud layer 120-FL250 across the state.

MARINE

A strong high pressure system far north of the Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift eastward over the next few days. Trade wind speeds will gradually weaken from strong to gale force today to fresh to strong from Wednesday onward. The Gale Warning for windier waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island and the Small Craft Advisories for the rest of the coastal waters were extended through the tonight time period. Expect the Gale Warning to drop back to SCA levels for windier coastal waters from Wednesday on into the weekend.

The strong trade winds will keep high surf and very rough seas along east facing shores of most islands today and tonight, and the High Surf Advisory was extended in time through early Wednesday morning to cover these conditions. Slowly decreasing easterly trade winds tomorrow will cause surf heights to fall along east facing shores below advisory thresholds by Wednesday morning. However, elevated surf heights along east facing shores will keep rough conditions in the forecast just below surf advisory thresholds into Friday.

Small to medium northwest swells will continue through the week with smaller surf lingering in the forecast along north and west facing shores for the foreseeable future. Small background medium period south swell energy will keep surf heights along the south facing shores on the tiny side lasting into early next week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Big Island Southeast-East Honolulu-Kahoolawe- Kauai East-Kipahulu-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West-Molokai Southeast-Molokai Windward-Olomana-South Haleakala-Windward Haleakala.

Wind Advisory until 6 PM HST this evening for Big Island Interior-Big Island North-Big Island South-Big Island Southeast- Kahoolawe-Kipahulu-Kohala-Lanai Leeward-Lanai Mauka-Lanai South- Lanai Windward-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Central Valley South-Maui Leeward West-Maui Windward West-Molokai Leeward South- Molokai North-Molokai Southeast-Molokai West-Molokai Windward- South Haleakala-South Maui/Upcountry-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters- Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.

Gale Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters-Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel.