textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

One more day of trades is on tap for Thursday before an approaching upper level system and surface front take us into southeast surface flow and increasing moisture. A weak upper low may form near the state early next week, and this may bring wetter weather Sunday through Tuesday. Strong trades are possible around the middle of next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 337 PM HST Wed Feb 25 2026

As of mid-afternoon, radar and satellite showed fewer showers and more sunshine than yesterday this time. Winds were averaging 10 to 20 mph, with gusts to 30 mph in a few locations.

An approaching upper level ridge axis will pass over the region Thursday night, and the impact of that ridge is helping us have a relatively shower-free and mostly sunny day today. Northeast to east trade winds will become mostly southeast Friday, and remain that way into Sunday. A upper level trough will move in from the west Sunday afternoon, then a part of the trough will break off from the upper flow and form a weak closed low near the state Monday into Tuesday. Despite the proximity of this upper low and the cooler temperatures aloft that come with it, along with increased low-level moisture along a front that may move into the state Sunday through Monday, the latest guidance is noticeably drier than previous runs. We have trended slightly drier with this afternoon's forecast, but not too much. The ingredients will still be there for a potentially wet couple of days (late Sunday through late Tuesday), so we've decided to stay a little wetter with our forecast than the latest NBM guidance.

Models are fairly consistent in the longer term, showing trades returning Wednesday of next week. A strong pressure gradient is forecast to set up across the area in the middle of next week, and this means that moderate to strong winds are possible.

AVIATION

Issued at 337 PM HST Wed Feb 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail tonight into Thursday morning as a mostly dry moderate to breezy trade wind pattern takes hold. Isolated MVFR conditions are possible in windward areas where lower visibilities and ceilings can be expected in any isolated evening or overnight showers.

AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration may be needed later tonight for mainly windward areas but could expand if showers start to spill over into leeward areas.

MARINE

Issued at 337 PM HST Wed Feb 25 2026

Strong high pressure far north of the islands will maintain fresh to strong trade winds into Thursday. Winds and waves have diminished below Small Craft Advisory criteria for the majority of the coastal waters this afternoon, though 25 to 30 kt winds are expected to continue tonight into Thursday for the waters and channels around Big Island and Maui County, where higher winds are typically encountered. Winds ease over all waters Thursday night and Friday, gradually veering southeasterly around Kauai and Oahu as a surface ridge is displaced toward the islands by an advancing front. The front will stall and weaken over the weekend, possibly bringing increased chances for heavy showers by Sunday.

A large north-northeast (010-030 deg) swell will continue to fade over the next few days, allowing surf along north- and east- facing shores to decline in tandem. Surf along north-facing shores has been observed to fall just below High Surf Advisory (HSA) criteria this afternoon, but still remains above 10 ft for favored east-facing shores. As a result, the HSA for north-facing shores has been allowed to expire, but has been extended for east-facing shores through tonight. In addition, a Marine Weather Statement continues for moderate to heavy surges in north facing harbors, mainly in Hilo and Kahului. As east shore surf continues to decline this weekend, a small northwest swell will arrive. This swell will linger into early next week.

Surf along south facing shores will remain tiny through the week.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Thursday for Big Island East- Big Island North-Kauai East-Koolau Windward-Maui Windward West- Molokai North-Molokai Windward-Olomana-Windward Haleakala.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Thursday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.