textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

A plume of moisture is moving across the far southeast part of the state with scattered light showers tapering off over the Big Island. Drier easterly flow will filter in today into Friday, bringing a return of a typical trade wind pattern through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Morning satellite water vapor imagery shows the last of the tropical moisture lingering from Lowell moving southwest and out of the state. Showers have been diminishing across the Big Island and should remain scattered and light through this evening.

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged into early next week with a broad upper level low well northeast of the state. Drier air will filter in on the back side of this low into Friday, allowing for dew points to lower back into the mid 60s in the lower elevations by Friday. Trade winds will slowly build in today and prevail into early next week. More typical afternoon and evening showers can be expected on the windward sides of the islands. Towards the middle of next week, the upper level low weakens and lifts northeast and high pressure begins to expand westward across the state. A weak disturbance could bring an increase in moisture by Thursday, though there's considerable spread in ensemble precipitable water due to differences in the track of the disturbance.

AVIATION

The trade winds have set up, which combined with moisture being advected in has allowed for ongoing showers this afternoon into this evening. Satellite shows a mix of clear skies to mostly cloudy skies with clouds focused on on the windward, upslope portions of the islands. This is resulting in ceilings generally ranging from VFR to MVFR. The lower ceilings, and at times reduced visibility are possible at times due to the showers and clouds, however, expecting conditions to gradually improve with a drying trend into the evening and overnight.

AIRMET Sierra remains for the Big Island through at least 22Z. Showers have mostly ended for the TAF sites, with the forecast showing drier trade wind conditions for the afternoon into this evening. However, cannot rule out a few stray showers into the early afternoon hours, especially for TAF sites on the Big Island.

For sites PMDY and NSTU, lower confidence in strong northeasterly to easterly winds respectively, so trending these winds weaker, and later in the day.

MARINE

Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will gradually return from east to west across the island chain today and then persist into the weekend.

The current moderate mid-period south swell will continue to steadily decline over the next few days with below average surf expected by the weekend.

Surf along east facing shores will gradually decrease and will remain near seasonal averages through Saturday due to east and northeast swells generated by former tropical cyclones. Surf along north facing shores continues to receive a small bump due to Lowell. This short-period northwest swell will quickly fade, allowing surf to become tiny along north facing shores today as Lowell weakens and tracks westward away from the islands.

FIRE WEATHER

Fire weather risk will remain low the next several days due light winds and lingering moisture. Expect a slight chance of thunderstorms over the Big Island this afternoon. Temperature inversion heights are expected to remain elevated or weak.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.