textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Cold front has reached the Big Island where it is delivering a few showers to portions of the North Kona and Kohala Districts. The front will stall and diminish this afternoon. Cool and mostly dry conditions are expected over the next few days. A complex weather system could bring significant weather impacts across the state early next week with periods of heavy rain, strong winds and thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 852 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Mostly clear skies behind the cold front which has reached the Big Island this morning. Very dry 12z Lihue sounding from earlier this morning sampled this dry airmass well, and there is virtually no boundary layer moisture to be had. Dewpoints have settled into the mid 50s to around 60 in the wake of the front bringing a cooler feel to the resident airmass. Aside from diminishing light showers in the vicinity of the Big Island, shower activity will essentially be nil through tonight. The High Wind Warning remains in effect for the Big Island Summits through tonight, though winds will begin trending weaker by this afternoon.

AVIATION

Issued at 852 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026 The band of clouds associated with a cold front is moving over the Big Island this morning. AIRMET Sierra for Oahu and Maui County have been recently cancelled as clouds have cleared those islands behind the front. The band of clouds has become more diffuse as it makes its way to the Big Island, and anticipate sunshine will break the band up more. VFR conditions are expected over the smaller islands, with some MVFR conditions over the Big Island until the band clears the state.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence below 7000 feet over and downwind (north and east) of mountain terrain across the Big Island. Conditions are expected to improve as winds weaken behind the front.

A high pressure ridge is building in over the islands from the west behind the front. This will bring light winds and a stable atmosphere to the region. As a result, afternoon sea breezes could bring a few clouds and light showers, and overnight land breezes will likely clear the skies.

MARINE

Issued at 347 AM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Rough marine conditions will persist this morning due to a combination of moderate to fresh northwest winds behind a cold front approaching the Big Island and a significant northwest swell. Local winds will briefly ease to light to moderate levels and shift out of the east by Wednesday as high pressure builds in behind the departing front. Moderate to locally fresh southwest winds may return during the second half of the week as the next system draws closer. Guidance shows strong to gale force northeast winds trailing this next front filling in over most Hawaiian waters.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will rapidly rise today as a significant northwest swell generated by a broad, storm-force Aleutian low builds down the island chain. Offshore buoys peaked above 20 ft overnight, aligning well with forecast guidance. The relatively short travel distance from the fetch region, combined with locally strong northwest winds veering more northerly today, will produce very rough surf with a mix of short- to medium-period energy. Surf will reach the extra-large to giant range later today during the peak for exposed coasts of the smaller islands, with heights well above warning levels lingering into Wednesday before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Provided the more west to northwest angle (300-320 degrees), much of this energy will remain blocked for most north facing shores of the Big Island. Heights will potentially return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving from a developing storm- force low over the far northwest Pacific today.

Water levels running higher than predicted combined with onshore winds and warning-level surf will increase the threat of coastal flooding impacts along exposed coasts. Overwash onto vulnerable low-lying roadways and properties is likely, especially during the early morning peak tide cycle or by daybreak. Additionally, minor coastal flooding will remain likely early this morning due to elevated water levels, even in sheltered coastal areas away from direct surf exposure. The potential for impacts will ease beginning Wednesday as tides gradually lower.

Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend as strong northeast winds fill in behind a cold front expected.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

High Surf Advisory from noon today to 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East-Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.