textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trade winds weaken today into the latter half of the week as a trough passes northeast of the islands. The trough also brings an increase in moisture that will produce an uptick in shower activity through Friday. This weekend, trade winds restrengthen.

DISCUSSION

Trades weaken today through Friday as a trough approaches and passes just north of the state Thursday night into Friday. The trough will bring additional moisture across the islands, but with lighter trades will increase precipitation chances for leeward areas during the afternoons with the development of a sea/land breeze pattern.

The winds are expected to strengthen and shift easterly late Friday into Saturday, which will focus clouds and showers windward and mauka.

For Sunday and Monday, tropical moisture is expected to be in the vicinity of the state due to the potential development of a tropical system. Most guidance keeps the track of the potential tropical system south of the islands. While there remains uncertainty in the forecast since the system has yet to develop, precipitation chances have been increased for early next week. Please continue to monitor the forecast as it is subject to change as we get closer to the weekend and details surrounding the forecast become clearer.

AVIATION

Moderate trades expected through tomorrow. Some windward and mauka SHRA possible with isol MVFR conds. VFR conditions should prevail.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE

High pressure far northeast of the waters will remain nearly stationary and slowly weaken for the next couple of days. A trough to the east of the islands will pass northeast of the islands as trade winds continue a weakening trend, becoming light and variable for most waters by Thursday as daytime sea breezes and overnight land breezes become established. By late Friday, moderate to locally fresh trades will begin to build back into the region as the high drifts southward closer to the island chain. Heading into the weekend, the potential development of a tropical system southeast of the islands is possible but uncertainty remains as the system has yet to develop.

Surf along south facing shores will continue declining through midweek as south swell fades. Another long period south swell generated from gales just south and east of New Zealand will begin arriving late this week. Surf along east facing shores will also continue to fade as background flow becomes weaker. North facing shores will remain tiny throughout the week.

FIRE WEATHER

Trade winds will weaken today through Friday, increasing chances of showers for the leeward side of the islands. Trade winds increase over the weekend with showers switching to windward. The inversion is 6000 to 7000 ft.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.