textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Breezy trades will continue through at least the middle of next week. Showers will generally favor windward and mauka areas, particularly during the overnight through early morning hours each day. Tropical Storm Lowell remains far ESE of the main Hawaiian Islands, and uncertainty regarding its track and intensity forecast remains very high at this time.

DISCUSSION

We saw a fairly breezy day this afternoon with a few areas gusting into the 40 mph range. A 1035 mb high far north of the state will continue to produce breezy conditions across the state for Sunday. While we saw a few light showers ride in with the breezy trades this evening, another fairly dry day is expected for Sunday.

Starting Sunday night, we should see a slight increase of showers move in with the breezy trades due to a subtle increase of low level moisture. Some passing showers will likely linger across windward and mauka areas through Monday with a few light showers possible over leeward areas as well. Tuesday and Wednesday will also be fairly similar to Monday with breezy trades and some passing showers over windward and mauka areas.

For the second half of next week, the weather forecast for Hawaii will be dependent on the track of T.C Lowell. Currently Lowell is a Tropical Storm located near 13N138W and is expected to strengthen into a Hurricane over the next few days. The latest forecast track from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has Lowell passing around 325 miles south of the Big Island Thursday afternoon. While the 00Z runs from the GFS and ECMWF show Lowell slightly more north and east than the official NHC track, the 00Z run from the better performing GDM model shows it further south and west (roughly 400 miles southwest of the Big Island) than the official track. So as you can see, there is a lot of spread in the forecast models, thus it is too early to predict any potential impacts to Hawaii at this time.

AVIATION

Conditions will be mostly VFR. Trades will continue at breezy speeds, creating occasional turbulence downstream of mountains. In addition, showers will focus on windward sites, but should remain isolated. Low ceilings may occur briefly, but limited moisture should prevent sites from getting bogged down in long- lasting MVFR.

AIRMET Tango is in effect for mod low-level turbulence lee of terrain and may be needed for a few days.

MARINE

Issued at 345 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

Extensive surface high anchored north of the islands maintains moderate to locally strong trades through next week. The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.

The S swell that peaked just below the advisory threshold on Friday declines over the next few days. A long period S swell brings increasing surf to S and exposed W shores beginning Tuesday and peaking on Wednesday near the High Surf Advisory threshold. Surf along E shores remains choppy due to trades over and upstream of the islands. A small medium period east swell from Tropical Storm Iselle has filled in and will diminish during the next 24 hours.

FIRE WEATHER

Issued at 745 PM HST Sat Aug 29 2026

We saw a fairly dry day across parts of the state today with humidities getting down into the upper 30s for select leeward areas. Another breezy and dry day is expected on Sunday with humidities down into the low 40s and possibly upper 30s again for a few leeward areas Sunday afternoon. While fuel conditions do not remain critical at this time due to the abundant rainfall we received over the past several weeks, moderate fire danger will be possible for areas that have not received much rainfall over the past few weeks. An increase of showers and humidities is expected Sunday night into Monday. While the passing showers should be confined to mainly windward and mauka areas, some higher minimum humidities is expected for Monday. Soundings show the temperature inversion between 6000 to 7000 feet this evening. We should see the inversion lower to 5000 to 6000 feet on Sunday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Sunday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.