textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Trade winds will remain light to moderate through much of the week as the remnant circulation of Tropical Cyclone Genevieve lingers far NE of the islands. Clouds and showers will favor windward and mauka areas and may be a little more frequent for the western half of the state this week due to an upper level trough. Trade winds then look to increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

High pressure north of the area is driving moderate trade winds which are delivering light showers to mostly windward and mountain areas. Former Tropical Cyclone Genevieve resides to the far NE where it is currently drifting W and will likely contribute to decreasing the trade winds tomorrow through Thursday. Also by tomorrow, an upper level trough will approach the area from the northwest, and could give a small boost to trade wind showers for the western half of the state. Areas of localized land and sea breezes will be possible with the lighter winds and associated cloud and shower buildups in the afternoons. This upper trough is then expected to move away by Friday.

By the weekend, models are hinting at some incoming tropical moisture along a trough connected to the ITCZ. Trades could push this area of moisture across Big Island and Maui if it moves far enough north. Trade winds also look to increase during the weekend.

AVIATION

Gentle trades will focus clouds and showers mainly along windward and mauka regions with localized areas of nighttime land and daytime sea breezes tonight into Tuesday as an area of enhanced moisture moves across the state.

There are currently no AIRMETs in effect, but AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscurations could be possible over windward areas of Oahu and Maui County overnight with upstream clouds and showers.

MARINE

No significant changes to the forecast with the afternoon package. Winds are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory levels for the next several days.

High pressure north of the islands will maintain trade winds. However a front passing from west to east north of the island will help to weaken the trade wind flow, as will the remnants of former Tropical Cyclone Genevieve lifting to the north to the east of the islands. As the front moves to the east, and the tropical remnants lift north and dissipate, trade winds should restrengthen by the end of the week.

Background south swell will maintain surf below seasonal averages for the south shores through much of the the week. A small, long period south swell is expected to arrive by Saturday. A series of south swells are expected next week, which should produce surf heights at or above seasonal averages.

East facing shores will remain rough and choppy with steady decreasing trends as the trade winds ease through much of the week. Small, medium period easterly swell generated from former Tropical Cyclone Genevieve will linger over the next few days.

Surf along north facing and west shores will remain flat to tiny through the forecast period except for areas exposed to the easterly trade wrap.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.