textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Moderate to locally breezy trade winds will persist through much of next week as high pressure remains north of the state. Windward and mauka showers will continue, with a slight uptick in moisture possible late next week, mainly near the Big Island. Trades should gradually ease late next week, with a drier pattern possible late next weekend.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

As expected, showers became more numerous and a little stronger overnight and this morning with an area of higher moisture moving through. This should continue into the afternoon before decreasing tonight. Models are still showing another area of increased moisture moving in Tuesday, so that's the next chance to see a jump in showers. No update to this part of the forecast will be made at this time. See the new Marine section below for new information on a Coastal Flooding Statement that has been issued.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 322 AM HST Sun Jul 12 2026

Broad surface high pressure anchored north of the Hawaiian Islands continues to dominate the Central Pacific through the next several days, maintaining a moderate to locally breezy trade wind regime. Embedded within the trades, isolated showers will continue to favor windward and mauka locations of all islands, with occasional spillover into leeward communities. PWAT anomalies are forecast to remain within one standard deviation of climatological normal through much of the forecast period.

Toward the end of next week, some model guidance indicates a modest uptick in moisture associated with a weak surface low passing south of the state. This feature would briefly raise PWAT anomalies to around two to three standard deviations above normal, though any increase in shower activity will be confined to the Big Island before moisture values return to near-normal levels.

Beyond this period, longer-range guidance suggests the aforementioned surface ridge will gradually shift northeastward and weaken as early as the middle of next week. Attention then turns to the deep tropics, where some ensemble guidance is beginning to hint at potential tropical development. While it remains far too early to speculate on any potential impacts to the Hawaiian Islands, the signal bears monitoring in future forecast cycles.

Confidence is somewhat higher in the broader pattern evolution, with the weakening and eastward retreat of the high leading to a gradual easing of the trade winds late next week. Shower coverage should decrease as well, with some guidance suggesting a modest drying trend that could persist into the latter end of the weekend. However, given the extended forecast range, confidence in the timing and magnitude of these changes remains low at this time.

AVIATION

Issued at 322 AM HST Sun Jul 12 2026

Overall weather pattern continues to favor breezy trades through the weekend. Periodic showers are possible across mainly windward sites, bringing tempo MVFR conditions as a result, but otherwise expecting mostly VFR conditions across the state.

AIRMET Sierra is in effect for windward of all islands as a result of the aforementioned shower activity. This may continue through the morning and even into the afternoon hours.

AIRMET Tango also remains in effect for low-level turbulence downwind of terrain, and is expected to continue for the next several days as we remain under a breezy trade wind pattern.

MARINE

A strong high pressure system remains north of the state, bringing fresh to strong trade winds to the area. The trades are expected to weaken slightly by late Monday as the high north of us lifts further northeast. This should allow the Small Craft Advisory (SCA) to be scaled back to those windier waters and channels around Maui County and the Big Island. Trade winds could weaken even further by the middle of the week with winds below SCA thresholds by Wednesday.

A small, long-period southwest swell (220 degrees) will continue to fill throughout the day today and peak on Monday, boosting surf over the next few days. Surf along east-facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period due to the fresh to strong trade winds. A series of small, moderate period west (270 to 280 degrees) swells will hold over the next few days, followed by a small, long- period west- northwest (280 to 290 degrees) swell heading into midweek, sourced from Typhoon Bavi in the far western Pacific. No significant north or northwest swells are expected, so surf along north-facing shores is expected to remain flat to tiny.

Peak monthly high tides combined with water levels that are running slightly higher than predicted will lead to minor flooding along the shoreline and in low-lying coastal areas. Coastal flooding is possible around the daily peak tide, which will be during the afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Statement has been issued through Tuesday afternoon.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.