textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

The high pressure ridge north of the islands will keep moderate trade winds blowing across the Hawaii region through Monday. Wind speeds will weaken from Tuesday through Thursday as a weak cold front passes north of the island chain. Trade winds slowly return by the end of next week as the ridge builds back into the region.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Mostly cloudy skies with scattered showers were seen on satellite and radar, mainly windward and mauka, as of 9:40 AM HST. Showers in these areas are expected to continue through the afternoon, and additional showers are forecast for the Kona region of Big Island. Clouds should increase in most areas, but there will still be plenty of breaks as the cumulus clouds roll by. All this is handled well by the current forecast and no update is planned at this time.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 342 AM HST Sat May 2 2026 The satellite water vapor imagery this morning shows a weak upper low roughly 400 miles northeast of the Big Island. Clouds just upstream or east of the Big Island are fairly unstable looking, keeping periods of rainfall in the forecast for the Hamakua Coast and east Maui today. Subsidence temperature inversion heights in this mornings upper air sounding at Hilo and Lihue were measured at 7,500 feet and 6,300 feet respectively. This means cloud heights are taller across the eastern islands with enhanced shower potential, as compared lower cloud tops and more normal brief passing showers across to the western half of the state.

Moderate trade winds continue with brief passing showers favoring the windward mountain areas through Monday. Lighter winds from Tuesday through Thursday will cause afternoon sea breezes with onshore winds, triggered by island surface heating, to expand across all islands. Expect interior clouds and a few showers each day in this pattern. Trade winds slowly rebuild across the state by the end of next week.

AVIATION

Moderate to breezy trades will persist today, with clouds and brief showers favoring windward sites. Expect periods of MVFR conditions within windward showers, otherwise widespread VFR is expected.

No AIRMETS are in effect.

MARINE

Issued at 342 AM HST Sat May 2 2026

A ridge of high pressure to the north of the islands will weaken through the weekend as a front passes north of the islands. Winds in turn will weaken, and further ease Tuesday into the middle of the week as another front passes north of the islands.

A small west-northwest swell this morning is coming in a little lower than expected, the swell will hold through the morning and then gradually ease through the weekend. Another, slightly smaller northwest swell is expected early next week, maintaining elevated surf along north and west- facing shores. Looking ahead, guidance indicates yet another long- period northwest (320 deg) swell may arrive late next week, generated by a developing storm near Japan that is forecast to lift northeast near the Kuril Islands over the weekend.

Surf along south-facing shores will trend up this weekend as a long- period south-southwest pulse arrives. Expect a peak later in the weekend and into Monday before lowering.

As trade winds weaken this weekend, expect surf along east- facing shores to trend downward.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

None.