textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

High pressure north of the islands will help maintain moderate to breezy trades through the week. Stable conditions will focus limited showers over windward and mauka areas through at least the middle of the week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Forecast looks on track for this morning. No anticipated update.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 332 AM HST Sat Jul 4 2026 High pressure just north of the Hawaiian Islands will remain the dominant feature, maintaining stable moderate to breezy trades over the next several days. Bands of moisture continue to ride within these trades, bringing increased shower activity to windward and mauka areas, namely across Kauai and the Big Island through the early portions of this weekend. The remainder of the islands will see little rainfall as a brief period of drier conditions can be expected through much of today.

Trades gradually strengthen by the turn of the week as the aforementioned high just to the north of the islands builds and meanders a bit to the southeast. Conditions are expected to remain stable, focusing typical shower activity to windward and mauka areas through the early portion of the next week.

By the end of next week, excess residual moisture associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas may extend to the island chain by way of breezy trade wind flow. This may bring increased shower activity over initially windward and mauka locations and may spread further into leeward portions of the state toward the end of the forecast period.

AVIATION

Moderate to locally breezy trades will continue through the holiday weekend. Low clouds and showers will bring MVFR conditions to windward and mauka areas at times. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail.

AIRMET Sierra remains in effect for mountain obscuration across windward sections of the Big Island, Oahu and Kauai. While a plume of moisture seen upstream of the Big Island may continue to supply clouds and showers to its windward areas for most of the day, conditions will likely improve for Oahu and Kauai by this afternoon.

AIRMET Tango remains in effect for moderate low level turbulence over and downwind of terrain of all islands. This AIRMET will likely continue through the weekend.

MARINE

Issued at 332 AM HST Sat Jul 4 2026 A high pressure ridge north of the Hawaiian Islands will keep trade winds blowing across the region through the week. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) for the typical windy waters and channels around Maui and the Big Island continues through Monday. Minor fluctuations in wind speeds may allow for brief periods of additional zones to fall into the SCA coverage area over the next several days.

As the current small long period south swell fades, yet another overlapping moderate long period south-southwest swell will fill in today, boosting south shore surf heights to near High Surf Advisory levels Sunday and Monday. This swell will slowly fade from Tuesday through the middle of next week.

Surf along east facing shores will remain rough and choppy through the forecast period as moderate to locally strong trades hold. Surf along north facing shores will remain tiny into next week.

FIRE WEATHER

Moderate to locally near critical fire weather conditions will persist through early next week. High pressure north of the state will produce locally breezy trade winds, with the strongest winds expected to develop Sunday or Monday. A slightly drier air mass in place will cause relative humidity to fall to around 45 percent each afternoon beginning today. Fuel conditions, as measured by the Keetch Byran Drought Index, will remain below the critical threshold.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Maalaea Bay-Pailolo Channel.