textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026

Trade winds will strengthen Sunday into Monday, then persist through the rest of the week, bringing periods of showers to the usual windward and mauka locations.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026

Moderate to breezy trade winds will persist today, with windward and mauka shower activity gradually decreasing later this morning into the afternoon. Trades are expected to strengthen heading into tomorrow as an area of strong high pressure well north of the state drifts south-southeastward, increasing the local pressure gradient. Model guidance also shows a band of moisture--currently seen on satellite imagery roughly 500 miles to the east--arriving tomorrow on the strengthening trade wind flow. This will likely lead to increased windward and mauka clouds and showers, along with the potential for stronger wind gusts mixing down in showers.

Taken together, the strengthening pressure gradient and the potential for enhanced gusts within showers bring the main short- term question into focus: will winds become strong enough to reach Wind Advisory criteria tomorrow? At this time, high-resolution model guidance favors the typically windier areas of Maui County and the Big Island, and this potential will be evaluated further ahead of the routine afternoon forecast update.

The overall forecast remains on track, and no changes were made with this mornings update. Please refer to the earlier discussion for additional details on the forecast heading into next week.

DISCUSSION

Issued at 319 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026

Isolated showers are ongoing across most windward and mauka areas this morning. A trough is bringing in some upper level clouds from the south as evident on satellite imagery. Trade winds will continue through the weekend, and strengthen through Sunday. This should continue the windward and mauka showers that are typical in a trade wind regime. Winds will strengthen slightly and continue well into next week. An upper level trough approaching from the northwest around midweek appears strong enough to turn our surface winds to out of the southeast Tuesday night. Though is it forecast to weaken as it swings through the state it should be enough to keep our winds out of the southeast through the forecast period.

MARINE

Issued at 927 AM HST Sat Feb 14 2026

Strong high pressure far north of the state will continue to produce rough conditions into next week. Trade winds are expected to strengthen through Sunday, where we could see gales over the windier waters and channels around Maui County. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) has been extended for all coastal water due to a combination of winds and seas through Sunday night. A Gale Watch may be needed for the Alenuihaha Channel and Pailolo Channel on Sunday, especially in the afternoon into Sunday night. Strong to near gale force trade winds are expected to persist through at least the middle of next week.

The current small medium period northwest to north-northwest swell will hold throughout the morning then steadily decline this evening through Sunday. Minimal energy is expected from the northwest during the first half of next week, although select exposures should see some wind swell. Surf along east facing shores will continue to build over all waters this weekend and early next week due to the persistent strong trades locally and upstream of the islands. Surf heights look to stay just below High Surf Advisory today but should reach advisory thresholds on Sunday. Surf along south shores remains small with some background trade wind swell for select exposures through the forecast period.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Monday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters- Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel-Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters- Maalaea Bay-Maui County Leeward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters-Pailolo Channel.