textproduct: Honolulu

SYNOPSIS

Dry weather and light winds prevail through Thursday followed by a transition to a very windy and much wetter period Saturday night into early next week.

SHORT TERM UPDATE

Issued at 900 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Forecast is on track for a rather calm next couple of days, with light winds turning from northeast to southeast as we go from Wednesday morning to Thursday morning, and then becoming southwest over the western part of the state Thursday afternoon. A formidable front is still set to arrive Friday afternoon and pass across the state through the weekend. This will bring the potential for thunderstorms, heavy rain, and strong winds. The only change to the forecast at this time was to reduce wind speeds in the long term part of the forecast. Winds will be reassessed overnight as we attempt to better define the threat over the coming weekend. The High Wind Warning for the peaks on Big Island will remain in effect for now, but will likely be cancelled after midnight.

PREV DISCUSSION

Issued at 334 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Today through Friday. Quiescent conditions exist through Friday. The afternoon sounding out of Lihue is exceptionally dry, especially through the depth of the boundary layer and it is no surprise that there are virtually no post-frontal clouds over the islands today. This will continue to be the case through tonight and into Wednesday. During this time, a weak and progressive ridge axis will advance over the islands causing winds to weaken and veer around the compass from NW this morning to light trades on Wednesday and finally southerly on Thursday. By Friday, increasingly convergent SW flow potentially drives a couple waves of benign showers over the western islands during the day.

Friday night through Monday. The next front in the sequence is modeled to arrive over the western portion of the state on Friday evening. Initial moisture depth along the front is modeled to be rather deep, but also appears tenuous at times given the moisture band's encounter with the resident dry, stable, and generally hostile environment. Suspect moisture depth around 10-12kft is most likely with a couple pockets of deeper convection possible as the front eases toward Oahu. In typical fashion, the front will begin to weaken given a lack of upper level support.

As the front settles somewhere over the western half of the state, a high amplitude longwave pattern will take shape during the weekend. This will support an emerging right that is poised to remain parked over the islands for at least a couple of days. This will in turn activate and deepen the existing front leading to a corridor of increasingly organized rainfall. At the same time, building surface high pressure to the tune of 1035+mb along 30N will drive a strong trade wind pattern that will become increasingly unstable as troughing deepens. The latest guidance suggests 500mb temps on the order of -15C over the western half of the islands by Saturday night before the airmass begins to modify Sunday into Monday. There is a a chance for trade wind thunderstorms Saturday night into Sunday, when the front is getting its act together, as 700-500mb lapse rates reach or exceed 7.5C/km in the vicinity of Kauai. However, limited low-level moisture (dewpoints around 65F) may prove to be a limiting factor for thunder. Finally, strong consensus exists that low-level flow will become strongly convergent along the frontal zone as trades strengthen along/behind it against impinging easterly flow. This will serve as an ample low-level forcing mechanism to organize heavy rain, most likely somewhere between Kauai and Maui, and potentially trigger thunderstorms. Showers will be very progressive given the strong background flow, but a flood threat may yet emerge if showers/tstorms are able to anchor along convergent low-level flow and train over a certain area.

Trade winds ramp up considerably on Sunday, especially west of Maui County (but potentially including Maui County) with sustained winds and gusts potentially reaching High Wind Warning criteria, especially through local acceleration zones. A moist boundary layer and unstable environment will tend to dampen downsloping potential, but with 925mb winds pushing 50kts at times, this will be an important element to monitor Sunday into Monday.

Monday night onward. Forcing diminishes as mid-level heights rise in response to the retreating upper low and loss of jet support. The event should wind down quickly heading into Monday night and strong easterly trades settle in for the remainder of the week.

AVIATION

Issued at 900 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

VFR conditions expected, save for brief localized MVFR cigs in the Big Island and Maui County. Mostly clear skies and diurnal winds generally less than 15 kts will prevail as surface high pressure moves through the island chain through the next 24 hours.

No AIRMETs are currently in effect.

MARINE

Issued at 900 PM HST Tue Feb 3 2026

Moderate to fresh north to northwest breezes will briefly veer out of the east by early Wednesday and hold through the day as high pressure builds over the state. The pressure gradient will become weak enough to support localized afternoon sea breezes for Kauai and Oahu tomorrow. Moderate to locally fresh south to southwest winds are expected to return over the western end of the state during the second half of the week as the next cold front draws closer. Guidance shows this next front moving into the area late Friday through Saturday with strong- to near gale-force northeast winds filling in behind it late in the weekend through early next week. Ocean conditions will quickly respond and become hazardous due to a combination of winds and seas. In addition to the winds and seas, a wet pattern with locally heavy rainfall and potentially a few storms may accompany this front over the weekend through early next week.

Surf along exposed north- and west-facing shores will remain well above warning levels into Wednesday before gradually lowering to advisory levels by Thursday. Observations at the offshore buoys to the northwest reflect this trend and indicate the swell easing this evening. Heights should lower to advisory levels by Wednesday night and Thursday, then potentially below advisory levels for a brief period Thursday night into Friday. Heights could return to warning levels for exposed coasts Friday night into Saturday due to a fresh northwest swell arriving from a hurricane-force low over the far northwest Pacific.

Surf along east facing shores could quickly rise and become rough this weekend as strong- to near gale-force northeast winds fill in behind a cold front. Heights could near the warning level during the peak by Monday.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

High Surf Warning until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Kauai North-Kauai Southwest-Kohala-Kona-Maui Central Valley North-Maui Windward West-Molokai North-Molokai West-Molokai Windward-Niihau-Oahu North Shore-Waianae Coast-Windward Haleakala.

High Wind Warning until 6 AM HST Wednesday for Big Island Summits.

High Surf Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Big Island East- Big Island North.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Wednesday for Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Windward Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Kauai Channel- Kauai Leeward Waters-Kauai Northwest Waters-Kauai Windward Waters-Maui County Windward Waters-Oahu Leeward Waters-Oahu Windward Waters.