textproduct: Gray - Portland

SYNOPSIS

Blustery but mainly dry conditions are expected for today. An upper level disturbance will cross New England on Friday bringing a round of snow showers and potential squalls, especially in the mountains. Another cold front approaches later in the day on Sunday. Some mixed wintry precipitation is possible Sunday night across portions of the interior as the next wave of low pressure arrives.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

610 AM Update...Mainly just refined PoPs with this update as just a few showers are left in the mountains at this hour, but those are expected to come to an end in an hour or so as a ridge builds in at the surface. Otherwise, just loaded in the latest observations as the forecast remains on track.

Previous Discussion... Blustery but mainly dry conditions are expected today in the wake of a low pressure system. Any early morning showers will depart quickly. It'll be a bit gusty but the west to southwest winds will allow temperatures to rise into the 40s for many areas downwind of the mountains and across southern NH. Otherwise, highs look to be in the 30s in the mountain valleys. A few snow showers will be possible in northern Coos County NH.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Temps drop into the 20s across the area tonight as the colder air mass begins to settle in. Later tonight and especially Friday, chances for snow showers and some snow squalls increase as another short wave trough approaches our region while bringing Great Lakes moisture with it. Most of the heavier squalls will be relegated to the mountains, but a few heavier snow showers should make it to the coastal plain and across southern NH as froude numbers rise to well above 1 by 18z and the snow squall parameter rises to above 1 also. Slippery spots are expected Friday afternoon and evening.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Cold and blustery conditions are likely to continue through Saturday morning, with lows bottoming out in the 20s. The pressure gradient will loosen through the day as high pressure arrives from the west. Mostly dry weather is expected through at least Sunday morning, though some upslope snow is possible in the mountains Friday night and Saturday morning.

An active pattern is expected early next week, with at least two disturbances expected to move through. The first one looks to be a weaker and more progressive low arriving on Sunday, bringing rain along the coast and some light snow across the interior. Precipitation looks to mainly fall Sunday afternoon, with the cold front moving through later on in the evening. High pressure moves in behind the front, with cold and blustery weather likely Monday morning. Winds should simmer down through the day on Monday as high pressure moves overhead.

More winter weather may arrive mid-next week, with a low developing just offshore of the Mid-Atlantic. A lot of uncertainty remains, but if this low tracks closer to the coastline and takes a more northerly track, widespread winter weather may be possible. Models are just as uncertain with storm intensity as well, with the GFS deterministic looking much stronger than the ECMWF solution. Right now, all solutions are still on the table and some extra time will be needed to see how guidance trends over the next few days.

AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Short Term...Clearing in the wake of a cold front occurs early this morning, with most terminals VFR toward daybreak. VFR prevails at most terminals through tonight, but HIE and LEB likely return with MVFR ceilings with upslope winds by late afternoon, persisting through tonight and Friday. Scattered brief heavy snow showers will occasionally cause for visibility restrictions at times, especially in the mountains.

Long Term...VFR expected Friday night through Sunday morning. Wintry weather arrives mid-day Sunday, bringing deteriorating restrictions across the area. Restrictions likely stay down through Monday, with more lowered restrictions possible on Tuesday as well.

MARINE

Short Term...A cold front clears the waters early this morning brining SCA conditions in its wake. these continue through tonight. Near gale conditions are possible by daybreak on Friday with gale gusts expected Friday. A gale watch remains in effect.

Long Term...Gale force northwesterly winds are likely Friday night, with 4-8ft seas. Conditions gradually improve through the day Saturday, with winds and seas going below SCA thresholds by the end of the day on Saturday. Winds and seas stay down through Sunday morning, and ramp back up to gale force winds and 5-7ft seas by Sunday night. Conditions look to improve during the day on Monday, lowering to at least SCA Thresholds by the end of the day Monday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for ANZ150-152>154. Gale Watch from Friday morning through Saturday morning for ANZ150-152-154.