textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Any changes to the forecast have been relatively minor early this morning with relatively minor systems affecting the forecast area the next few days.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front will stall over the forecast area today and move back northward as a warm front tonight. Some slippery travel will be possible across northern zones as a period of light snow occurs before temperatures warm on Thursday.

2. The active pattern continues with another wave of low pressure and a passing cold front Thursday night.

3. Cooler and drier conditions return for the weekend, then the active pattern resumes next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A cold front dropping southward out of Canada early this morning will stall over the forecast area today, then move back northward later today and tonight. The front will be accompanied by little fanfare today as moisture will be limited. Therefore, we expected variable clouds with dry weather. Temperatures will rebound to near 50 degrees across southeast zones to the 40s in mountain valleys. Westerly winds will be quite gusty today, especially in central and northern zones with G30 MPH possible.

The front will return northward tonight as a warm front as low pressure approaches from the northern Great Lakes. Forcing for ascent will increase across central and northern zones as moisture increases. This will aid in the development of light precipitation, especially across the north. Initially it should be in the form of light snow which may allow for some slippery spots for the early morning commute. Thereafter, temperatures will quickly warm on Thursday, with highs around 60 expected across the south with 40s and 50s elsewhere. The next system quickly approaches Thursday afternoon resulting in increasing PoPs by for rain showers by evening. Not out of the question there could be a rumble of thunder.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A wave of low pressure rides along a cold front Thursday night, bringing another round of mostly rain Thursday night. Enough cold air may work in on the back side of the front for precip to end as a few snowflakes across the north Friday morning, but most of the precip should fall as plain rain. A few rumbles of thunder are also possible through the overnight hours as some elevated instability moves through ahead of the front.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

Temperatures fall behind the front on Friday, with drier air returning. Friday night looks to be one of the colder nights we've seen recently, with lows dropping into the single digits across the north, and teens to low 20s elsewhere. High pressure then gradually builds eastward through the weekend, bringing continued dry conditions and moderating temperatures. Highs likely reach into the 50s on Monday, before another front passes Monday night into Tuesday with a chance of showers, followed by temps cooling back down into the midweek.

AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through Thursday: Conditions are expected to largely be VFR today. The exception may be KHIE this morning where lingering lower clouds might persist. IFR to MVFR restrictions will be possible in light precipitation tonight as a warm front lifts north. VFR conditions and southwesterly winds are expected on Thursday, although some lowering of cigs will be possible by late afternoon.

Outlook (Thursday night through Sunday):

Thursday night: IFR likely in rain, and possibly some snow at HIE late.

Friday - Friday night: Improving to VFR with possible restrictions lingering in the mountains.

Saturday through Sunday night: VFR expected.

Monday: MVFR and showers possible late in the day.

MARINE

Periods of SCA conditions are expected on the waters through Thursday as frontal boundaries cross the waters. Southerly SCA conditions Thursday night switch to northwesterly behind a passing cold front. High pressure then builds in through the weekend, with SCA conditions likely easing by early Saturday. SCA conditions are possible again on Sunday in southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching cold front.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150-152-154.