textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lowered temperatures tonight to reflect observational trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Fair weather and near normal temperatures will dominate the weather this week. A nor'easter off the Mid Atlantic coast may eventually allow for blustery winds and building nearshore waves for the latter half of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure overhead will allow for radiational cooling tonight. Radiational cooling conditions are already occuring, with most places reporting calm and clear skies in many places. Temperatures this evening are already running a few degrees below the forecast, so I have continued to lower low temperatures with these trends. This morning, expect to wake up to temperatures in the teens north of the mountains and mid-20s elsewhere.

Starting on Sunday, an upper-level trough exits the northeastern US and is replaced by a broad ridge. In general, upper-level ridging should allow for temperatures to be more mild through much of next week and temperatures do look to run a little above average on Sunday and Monday.

A nor'easter well offshore could usher enough moisture into the area Monday night that a fog bank may build over the coastal plain. If fog develops, it could linger at least through the late morning on Tuesday. The nor'easter itself will stay south and will not bring meaningful winds nor precipitation to northern New England.

However, high pressure to the north especially towards the middle of next week may lead to more seasonable temperatures then. No precipitation is forecast next week.

AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 06Z Monday...Persistent High pressure overhead will allow for VFR conditions to continue through tonight.

Outlook:

Monday: VFR expected.

Monday Night: VFR expected north of the mountains. A nor'easter well offshore could allow for coastal fog and low stratus.

Tuesday-Thursday: VFR expected.

MARINE

High pressure remains overhead through Sunday night, keeping conditions tranquil into Monday. By late Monday into Monday night, the gradient starts to tighten from high pressure to the northwest and a nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas, and SCA conditions are possible from incoming swells and increasing north to northeast winds through midweek. Wind gusts and swells may become elevated it again late week as the nor'easter passes east of the Gulf of Maine.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>154.