textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure remains in control for the rest of the week into the weekend with little to no precipitation on the horizon.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Other than a bit of cirrus, skies are again mostly clear early this morning with light winds. Since conditions are similar to yesterday, valley fog will probably develop in some spots, which could be dense in some spots before clearing out by mid morning. Another area to watch for fog is roughly along and east of the I-95 corridor from Portland to Augusta as the HREF probs continue to have a fog signal. The rest of the day will be mostly sunny and mild with temperature ranging from the upper 50s to mid 60s. The pressure gradient will tighten a bit between the high pressure to our north and the nor'easter off of the Mid-Atlantic coast, so we could see N-NE winds gusting 20-25 mph, especially near the coast and parts of western ME.

High pressure builds right back overhead tonight with mostly clear skies once again. This will bring a good another good setup for radiational cooling and lows in the 20s to lower 30s for northern and western areas, which will be closer to the center of the higher. Farther south, there may be enough of a breeze to keep the boundary layer more mixed, so I haven't gone quite as cool, but still forecast lows are in the 30s.

Dry conditions continue into Wednesday and Thursday, but highs will be a toucher cooler and stay mostly in the 50s for Wednesday before rebounding into the upper 50s to lower 60s on Thursday.

Global models are in good agreement in an upper trough/low diving southward out of eastern Canada late Thursday into Friday, and this will keep the nor'easter well to our south and east, but possibly close enough for breezy conditions Thursday or Friday. The ECMWF and more of its ensemble members continue to advertise more moisture for the upper low to work with than other guidance, and this could bring some light QPF across northern and eastern areas with light snow in the mountains and rain to the south. We'll see if other guidance follows this trend.

More dry weather is in store for the weekend as Canadian high pressure builds back in, and if the center of the high ends up overhead, Friday night has the potential to be quite cold. A front may cross through early next week, but moisture looks very limited, and the majority of ensemble guidance favors dry conditions.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 06Z Wednesday...Valley fog could bring IFR or lower to LEB/CON early this morning with some potential for fog/low stratus near AUG-PWM-RKD as well. This potential remains through mid morning with VFR the rest of today. Northerly winds will gust up to 20 kt during the day today before easing by 22Z.

Outlook Tonight: Mainly VFR, except valley fog possible at LEB. North winds may continue to gust 15kt near the coast.

Wednesday-Thursday: Mostly VFR. MVFR ceilings possible later in the day Thursday. Winds will be lighter Wednesday, and then north to northwest winds may gust 20-25 kt on Thursday.

Thursday night-Friday...Some light precipitation is possible in the HIE to AUG to RKD corridor but is currently low confidence on the degree of restrictions (if any).

Friday night-Saturday: VFR.

MARINE

The gradient will tighten today into Wednesday between high pressure to the north and nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas. This will bring an increase in northeast winds and periods of SCA-level gusts before winds diminish later in the day Wednesday. Winds remain below SCA levels Wednesday night, but seas may remain at or above 5 ft.

The nor'easter lifts east or northeast over the western Atlantic Thursday or Friday, although how quickly is a bit uncertain. Either way, it's expected to remain south and east of the waters, but another period of increased northerly winds is likely along with incoming swells. A period of gales is also possible over the outer waters. This will likely prolong the SCA conditions outside of the bays through at least Friday. Conditions improve over the weekend as high pressure builds into the Northeast. A cold front then may approach early next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM Tuesday to 6 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152-154.