textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Low temperatures have been lowered slightly for tonight.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast. High temperatures will be fairly typical for mid October with overnight lows running below normal.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Conditions remain blustery this afternoon with the chilly temperatures and northwest winds gusting 25-35 mph, but drier air moving will at least allow for more sunshine as the afternoon goes on. Winds will diminish toward sunset as we lose mixing and the pressure gradient relaxes with high pressure building overhead tonight. This sets up a good night for radiational cooling with latest dewpoint observations serving as a pretty good proxy for tonight's lows...with most seeing lows in the 20s, and some of the northern valleys could see lows in the teens, especially if some lower clouds hold off until closer to daybreak. The forecast lows are closer to the colder MET and MAV solutions.

Dry air and high pressure stay overhead Sunday, bringing a mostly sunny day. Temperatures will recover slightly into the low-mid 50s south of the mountains, but it will feel more comfortable than today as winds will be much lighter. Sunday night doesn't look quite as cold with forecast lows in the 20s and 30s.

Monday and Monday night will remain dry with high pressure still in control but may start to feature some more high clouds stemming from the nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas. Winds will again remain fairly light with highs reaching the mid 50s to low 60s.

High pressure begins to push the meandering nor'easter back to the south during the day Tuesday which is going to bring about clearing skies, and probably the warmest day of the week with widespread temperatures topping out in the low 60s. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions then continue as high pressure crests over the region again Wednesday and lasts through at least the day Thursday. Late week a strong ridge building over the central U.S. moves eastward and finally kicks the nor'easter out of its stall and off to the northeast. Virtually all model solutions keep it well out so sea, but this could mean we see some increased cloud coverage in the Friday-Saturday timeframe as it passes by. Confidence remains high that we stay dry as that ridge eventually settles overhead prolonging what is already an extended stretch of benign weather.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...VFR expected. Northwest wind gusts either side of 25 kt continue this afternoon but quickly ease toward sunset. Winds will be light overnight and into Sunday morning.

Outlook... Rest of Sunday-Thursday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns.

MARINE

SCA conditions continue through late this evening, and then high pressure building overhead will allow winds and seas to subside tonight. The high remains overhead through Sunday night, keeping conditions tranquil into Monday. By late Monday into Monday night, the gradient starts to tighten from high pressure to the northwest and a nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas, and SCA conditions are possible from incoming swells and increasing north to northeast winds through midweek. Wind gusts and swells may become elevated it again late week as the nor'easter passes east of the Gulf of Maine.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for ANZ150>154.