textproduct: Gray - Portland

SYNOPSIS

Today will be another chilly day with gusty winds and mountain snow showers. That will come to an end as a coastal storm passes well out to sea Saturday night into Sunday. This system may come close enough for a little light snow along the coast, but will most likely stay well enough away. That will be followed up by another very cold and gusty Monday. Expect the wind chills to remain in the teens and single digits.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

High pressure continues to gradually build in through the day today, but gusty winds and seasonably cold conditions continue through the day. Gusts of 30 to 40 MPH continue. Upslope snow showers continue across the higher terrain, with partly sunny skies downwind of the mountains. Highs range from around 20 across the north, to the 20s to lower 30s most places elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

Winds ease tonight as the ridge axis moves across northern New England. Upslope snow showers dissipate through the evening across the higher terrain, with mainly clear skies expected in most spots through the overnight hours. Temps cool into the single digits and teens again tomorrow night, but wind chills won't be much cooler than temps through the overnight. A few showers will be possible later Saturday afternoon as a weak frontal system approaches.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/

By Saturday night, the region transitions back into southwest flow aloft as a closed low approaches, riding down the Ontario/CONUS border overnight and through the day on Sunday. While the upper low will likely lead to some light snow across the forecast area, most of the shortwave forcing will mainly track south and east out to sea. A few ensemble solutions continue bringing the bulk of light snow farther north, but generally under 20 percent of them. Thus, there is still a low probability for some impactful weather but trends continue to diminish. The best chance for some light snow accumulations will likely be over southern New Hampshire and maybe a little bit of coastal Maine.

Some low probability snow chances may hang around into Monday morning near the coast and through the day across the mountains in the upslope regime. A reinforcing cold front will also cross the area on Sunday which will lead to frigid conditions Monday morning and blustery conditions through the day. Lows are forecast to mainly range from around zero across portions of the north, to the upper single digits and lower teens south. Strengthening westerly winds will lead to widespread below zero wind chills Monday morning with some double digit readings below zero across the north. It should stay cold and windy through the day with highs only rising into the upper single digits across portions of the north, to the lower 20s south. With winds remaining breezy through the day, wind chill values will likely remain below zero north and only rise into the single digits above most elsewhere.

Tuesday morning lows will be very similar to Monday but with less wind. The warmup then begins in earnest on Tuesday afternoon as highs rise into upper teens and lower 20s north, to the upper 20s and lower 30s south. By Thursday, the NBM has forecast highs ranging from the low to mid 30 north, to the low to mid 40s south. There are also some signals in the long term ensembles that these warmer temperatures could extend into Friday and the weekend. A weak shortwave trough will approach Wednesday night into Thursday which will lead to some low precipitation chances in the form of light rain and snow.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Short Term...VFR prevails through today in most spots, except KHIE where MVFR ceilings linger through at least this afternoon. Gusty west winds of 25-35 kt continue today but ease tonight and Saturday.

Long Term...Generally VFR conditions are expected through midweek. One exception will be the potential for MVFR or lower conditions north of the mountains in periodic upslope snow showers. The other will be along the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Some light snow is possible and if it occurs, areas of IFR or lower conditions are not out of the question. Monday will also likely see west northwest wind gusts of 25 kt or more.

MARINE

Short Term...Westerly gales continue into late this afternoon and early evening as low pressure deepens across the Canadian Maritimes, and high pressure builds in from the west. SCA conditions linger through this evening, and then continue to slow ease into Saturday.

Long Term...For Saturday night into Sunday, some light snow may reduce visibility but winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds. On Monday, westerly winds become gusty again as a period of gale force gusts is possible, potentially including the bays as well. Winds and seas will remain elevated at times through midweek as high pressure builds eastward.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Gale Warning until 9 PM EST Friday for ANZ150-152-154. Gale Warning until 5 PM EST Friday for ANZ151-153.