textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Did increase wind gusts this afternoon with a few gusts up to 40 mph possible.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Gusty and not as warm today as northwest winds follow an exiting cold front.

2. Turning warmer next week with occasional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Winds will have already become northwest by daybreak, quickly shifting following a cold front. These are slated to increase through the morning and afternoon as a mid/upper trough crosses New England. Mixing deepens, up to 850 or 800mb, tapping into the broadening 30 to 35 kt wind field. This would translate to surface gusts of 25 to 35 mph for much of the area.

The incoming airmass will be dry, and RH values should fall into the lower 30s along the coast and interior. The combination of gusty winds and lowering RH does create near elevated fire weather conditions towards southern NH and far southern ME. This could be magnified if southern locations skipped on wetting rain from overnight.

Momentum transfer settles in the evening, with a less breezy night expected. Light winds should be enough from the surface completely becoming calm, but some valley locations may radiate well during the late night hours.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Surface high pressure will slide southeast of the region on Sunday, allowing for developing southerly flow. This will allow high temperatures to reach well into the 50s across most inland locations while areas closer to the shore remain mostly into the 40s. Clouds will increase from southwest to northeast during the course of the day but it should remain dry. Afternoon RH will once again fall into the 20-30% range in many interior locations but with lighter winds than those of Saturday. A surface warm front will lift northward on Sunday night into Monday morning, bringing with it a round of showers. The highest rainfall amounts look to be across the mountains and towards the Canadian Border with perhaps up to around 0.50" while further to the south, generally between 0.10-0.25" is the most likely outcome. Low temperatures will range from the middle 30s to lower 40s from north to south.

A brief lull in showers is possible behind the warm front through mid-day Monday before shower chances increase towards the evening as a cold front drops south. High temperatures into the middle to upper 60s can be expected with a few spots in southern NH approaching 70 degrees. Monday night will be mild with lows into the 50s as any lingering showers become confined to the mountains. A mainly dry and even warmer day is likely on Tuesday as an H5 s/wv ridge axis crests overhead. High temperatures into the lower to middle 70s appear likely away from the immediate coast and south of the mountains. Rain chances will then increase once again Tuesday night into Wednesday as a series of fronts cross the area. Temperatures are progged to remain above avg through the remainder of the week with scattered showers possible at times.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...A cold front brings a round of SHRA through the region early this morning. Potential to see MVFR to IFR restrictions is highest at HIE with more in the way of MVFR possible at LEB, RKD, and AUG. Showers taper off generally from northwest to southeast overnight behind the front with wind shift to north/northwest, these increase after 06Z with gusts to around 25-30 kt possible. Those that see restrictions will likely return to VFR prior to 12Z, except possible MVFR at HIE through 18Z. Daytime mixing increases gust frequency and magnitude, 25 to 32 kt during the day. Gusts decrease in the evening, becoming light into Saturday night.

Outlook:

Sunday/Sunday Night: VFR conditions through 00Z Monday before scattered -SHRA and lower ceilings of MVFR-IFR arrive overnight. S winds at 10-15 kts.

Monday/Monday Night: Scattered -SHRA possible through 00Z Tuesday with some restrictions possible. S-SW winds at 10-20 kts.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR expected but scattered -SHRA possible at night with some restrictions.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: Restrictions possible at times due to lower ceilings and -SHRA.

MARINE

A cold front passes over the waters through this morning with winds shifting NW. Winds and seas will be enough for SCA to continue through the morning. But, the offshore wind direction should begin to knock down greater wave heights by early afternoon.

Winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria through Sunday with S flow. S-SW winds will then increase Sunday night into Monday with SCA conditions likely with a low potential for gales outside of the bays through Monday night. Winds will decrease Tuesday through the middle of the week while remaining mainly out of the S with gusts up to around 20 kts at times.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154.