textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Coastal Flood Statement for coastal York/Rockingham counties to cover this afternoon's high tide cycle. The combination of lingering wave action and elevated water levels may result in some spotty minor flooding in the most susceptible locations. Also, extended the SCA for W. Penobscot Bay through this morning. Otherwise, made minor near-term grid updates and updated the aviation section for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. On and off rains continue through today but winds decrease as well as offshore seas as the nor'easter gradually weakens. Rough surf and a high risk for rip currents continues today at the beaches.

2. After the nor'easter moves away on Tuesday, conditions turn warmer and drier for the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Early this Monday morning the weakening nor'easter is located just south of Long Island NY. The center of the storm, while continuing to weaken will pass northeast through the Gulf of Maine tonight.

The main effects from this storm from here on out are bands of locally heavy rain rotating in from off the ocean through this evening. So far the bands seem rather narrow so not everyone will see heavy rain. Otherwise, clouds, drizzle and a raw northeast breeze will continue with gusts continuing to decrease.

Have extended the high surf advisory through this afternoon as an astronomically high tide around midday combines with large swell. This will increase the risk for dangerous rip currents as well as potentially causing additional beach erosion. Some minor splashover remains possible around the time of high tide today.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

After the nor'easter moves offshore, the 500mb pattern looks to favor the development of a ridge over the eastern US. With high pressure setting up south of New England, moderating temperatures are expected for mid to late week with mainly dry conditions. Some weak instability could allow for a stray shower to generate on Wednesday or Thursday, but most should remain dry.

Rain chances are a little higher on Friday, as a cold front is poised to move southward across New England. However rain chances are likely to remain in the slight-chance category, as the front remains weak and any instability will have to overcome a modest subsidence layer. High pressure then looks to dominate the weather over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through Tonight...Widespread IFR to MVFR through this evening in periods of rain. However, periods of improvement are possible outside of rain banding. Most terminals, especially the coast, will see northeast surface gusts of around 25 kt today before becoming light and variable tonight. LLWS is not anticipated through the period.

Outlook:

Tuesday: Conditions gradually improving to at least MVFR.

Wednesday and Thursday: VFR expected.

Friday: VFR expected most places. Occl showers could lead to brief periods of MVFR at HIE.

MARINE

Gales have been cancelled. A SCA now remains in effect for the until the winds and seas drop to below 25kt and/or 5 feet. SCA conditions will linger into Tuesday evening before dropping below thresholds.

After the passage of the nor'easter on Tuesday, winds and seas will continue to subside as high pressure moves in. Waves likely fall below 5ft by Wednesday. High pressure then brings mainly fair conditions for midweek, with the next cold front then possible on Friday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027. NH...High Surf Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ151. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ153.