textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes needed with this forecast update as quiet weather is expected into the middle of the upcoming week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry weather continues through the weekend with warming temperatures.

2. Unsettled weather makes a return toward the middle of next week after a dry start.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

No significant weather concerns through the weekend as high pressure builds behind a departing upper low. Even with dry conditions, light winds should keep the risk of elevated fire weather conditions low. Low pressure moves through the Mid- Atlantic today as a trough digs in as well. This will allow for development of a large area of precipitation, but height rises over our area will keep it suppressed just to the southwest. I suppose I can't completely rule out a sprinkle along the Massachusetts state line in southwestern New Hampshire overnight, but that is all it would be. Skies tonight should remain mostly clear with any cloud cover from the aforementioned system being high over our area. Because of this I have blended in some MOS guidance to account for a degree of radiational cooling that would lead to lower temperatures, especially across the north where skies should be clearest. Expect low to mid-30s south of the mountains, and mid- to upper 20 to the north. Temperatures are on a gradual warming trend, but still around normal thanks to northerly flow aloft and afternoon seabreezes. Temperatures should be able to climb into the low to mid-60s across much of the area, with the seabreeze likely keeping the immediate coast in the 50s. Sunday night should be a little bit warmer than Sunday, but will almost certainly feature less clouds as heights continue to rise and low pressure tracks eastward south of our area. Blending in some MOS here for radiational cooling, results in temperatures in the 30s areawide.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The week will start on a dry note as an H5 ridge axis remains overhead, keeping low pressure well to our southeast. Skies will be partly cloudy with high temperatures ranging from the lower 50s along the coast due to onshore flow with lower to middle 60s inland. Radiational cooling is then likely Monday night as skies clear and winds weaken. Low temperatures at or below freezing are likely in most locations. Tuesday will remain dry with partly cloudy skies and similar high and low temperatures to those of Monday.

The ridge will begin to break down on Wednesday with a few showers possible, especially during the afternoon with cooler high temperatures into the lower to middle 50s. A cooler and more unsettled pattern then looks likely Wednesday night through the remainder of the week as cutoff low pressure meanders near or just east of New England, potentially allowing for beneficial rainfall given the ongoing drought conditions. Significant uncertainty exists at this time range regarding specific rainfall amounts but by the end of the week, moderate rainfall is possible in at least parts of the region. Temperatures will also trend towards below average.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...Generally VFR conditions are expected into Sunday afternoon as high pressure builds overhead. Coastal terminals will see a wind shift Sunday afternoon with the seabreeze.

Outlook:

Rest of Sunday/Sunday night: Generally VFR conditions persist through Sunday night.

Monday/Monday Night: VFR expected. E-NE winds at 10-15 kts.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: VFR expected. E-SE winds at 10-20 kts.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: Lowering ceilings with restrictions likely with developing RA.

Thursday/Thursday Night: Restrictions likely to continue along with periods of RA.

MARINE

Sub-sca conditions are expected through Sunday night as high pressure builds over the waters. Winds shift from southwesterly to northerly overnight tonight, before switching back to easterly with the seabreeze tomorrow afternoon

SCA conditions possible Tuesday night through at least Thursday due to building seas outside of the bays as low pressure crosses over the Gulf of ME.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.