textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Snow winding down on schedule and cold front tracking to cross the region this evening. The extended forecast remains on track, with minimal change in the forecast with this package.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Remaining steady snow ending this afternoon with a cold front and snow showers set to cross the area through late this evening.

2. Mainly quiet weather is likely late week through the upcoming weekend with near to above average temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Snow is hanging on the longest where expected, from roughly Casco Bay northeastward thru the Midcoast. No real surprises with generally 1 to 3 inches resulting across the forecast area. The primary issue moving forward this evening will be tracking the cold front as it marches thru. Hi-res model forecasts have enough instability along the leading edge to produce a few bands of snow showers. Snow squall parameter is decent across most of NY however will trend down with the loss of daytime heating by the time any precip reaches our area. Also the timing looks to be mainly after 9 pm, and so meeting true snow squall criteria looks unlikely. However a few snow showers may be briefly moderate to heavy, mainly across the southern half of NH into southwestern Maine.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A weak surface low looks to develop off the east coast Thursday night. Strong high pressure overhead will keep this low well offshore, with no precipitation expected in the area.

A fairly quiet period of weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. A mid-level ridge looks to build up at the end of the week, allowing for a thaw into the weekend. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the upper 40s on Saturday, with dry weather anticipated. Saturday afternoon, a low appears to pass over Quebec with a dry cold front possibly moving southeastward. The passing front will allow for colder temperatures to work their way back into the region for the start of next week.

On Sunday, high pressure continues to move in, bringing along a weak area of upper-level divergence with it. This will allow for an extremely weak low pressure system to form and move across NH and Maine, providing the possibility for a quick hit of snow showers in the morning. Not really expecting more than a coating, but it could make some back roads in the area slick.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Areas of IFR in light snow are slowly improving to fairly widespread MVFR CIGs at this hour. Those MVFR CIGs will be stubborn until westerly winds later this afternoon and evening can scatter out the lower clouds. Otherwise a return to VFR is expected for all terminals, except for HIE where upslope clouds will linger around MVFR CIGs. A cold front will cross the region from west to east between around 02z to 06z and snow showers are possible along it. Confidence is too low for me to include in TAF at this time, but brief reductions in VIS and local IFR conditions are possible along and south of a LEB-CON- PWM line.

Outlook:

Thursday: VFR conditions expected.

Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Friday: VFR conditions expected.

Friday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

Saturday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Sunday: VFR conditions expected.

Monday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Southerly winds are currently gusting around 25 to 30 kt, mainly outside of the bays, and seas are building to around 5 ft. SCAs remain in effect for the outer waters thru Thu, and Penobscot Bay thru this evening. Winds and seas will begin to diminish after winds peak this evening.

Winds and seas look to remain below SCA criteria on Friday and as S winds increase. Borderline SCA conditions start Saturday morning and continue into the start of next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151.