textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Largely dry forecast through the extended. The one chance for rain will come with a slow moving frontal boundary crossing the region Sunday into Monday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure continues to pull away, but a weak inverted trof is keeping an area of rain/showers persistent over parts of the western Maine mtns into the lower Androscoggin Valley. That should continue into the early morning hours before forcing drifts too far east.

After that it will be largely dry thru the midpoint of the weekend. There is really only the threat of isolated to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms today and Sat afternoons.

The next best chance of rain looks like late Sun into Mon. A slow moving frontal boundary will cross the region. At this time ensemble guidance is showing plenty of members indicating appreciable rainfall, but this would not be the first time this warm season the rug has been pulled at the last minute. I do think precip is likely, but the amounts I will lean more conservative. Timing also looks like we avoid peak surface based instability, so the threat for severe weather is relatively low.

Temps overall thru the middle part of the next week look seasonable, though Sun night and maybe Mon night overnight readings could be on the mild and muggy side.

AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through tonight: Mostly VFR conditions, with continued gradual improvement in the remaining patchy IFR/MVFR CIGs expected thru morning. It is possible that patchy valley fog develops thru sunrise, especially for the Connecticut River Valley. This will include LEB and HIE. Widespread VFR conditions after sunrise with sea breeze likely to develop near the coast. Some isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible in the afternoon, but only local restrictions are possible. VFR again overnight with the local IFR or lower possible in the valley locations.

Outlook...

Saturday: VFR conditions expected. Brief Local MVFR or lower possible with isolated showers or thunderstorms.

Sunday-Monday: Increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms may lead to areas of MVFR/IFR restrictions late in the day Sunday through Monday.

Tuesday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas are expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru the extended. As a front approaches Sun, southerly winds will increase. A few gusts near 25 kt are possible well outside of the bays, but guidance does not point towards a high chance of SCA conditions. It is also possible that increasing moisture ahead of the front may lead to areas of fog developing Sun night.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.