textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures start to recover on Sunday with rain showers becoming likely from early evening through Monday morning.

2. Above normal temperatures likely Tuesday through the end of the week with intermittent chances for showers

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

30 to 35 kt winds aloft and strong mixing still keep conditions breezy this afternoon and early evening, mostly in the 25-35 mph range but can't rule out a couple of gusts closer to 40 mph. These will then ease closer to sunset as the daytime mixing wanes and will continue to do so overnight as high pressure builds more overhead. The diurnal cu will also fade by sunset with mostly clear skies overnight and low temperatures ranging from 20s to lower 30s. The exception will be the clouds sticking around in the mountains a little longer, and steep lapse rates may promote a few low topped rain or snow showers into this evening.

Light south to southwest flow sets in on Sunday as the center of the high shifts to the south and east. This will allow temperatures to rebound slightly with highs in the 50s pretty much areawide. It will start out mostly sunny, but clouds will increase during the afternoon as the next disturbance approaches from the west. There will be a lot of low-level dry air to overcome so showers are expected to hold off until early evening, probably after 6pm, per today's 12Z CAMs.

Rain showers will then overspread the region generally in a west to east fashion Sunday evening through Sunday night and continue over much of the area Monday morning as a warm front lifts through the area. These should gradually taper off from southwest to northeast as the morning goes on, but additional showers could develop through the afternoon. In general, still expecting 0.25" to 0.50" of rain across central and northern areas and then closer to 0.10" to 0.25" in southern NH. There is signal for a stripe of higher amounts 0.50" to 1.00" in and around the mountains, but some guidance is a little farther south with this, the HRRR in particular.

It may be a little slow to warm up with the clouds, but some partial clearing and continued WAA during the afternoon should allow temperatures to reach the 60s across most of the interior, possibly closer to 70 for southern NH. Farther east toward the Midcoast and Augusta, more clouds could hold temps in the 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Ensembles are in good agreement that ridging will prevail near the East Coast through much of next week with positive height anomalies centered near New England. This will favor above normal temperatures with inland areas south of the mountains seeing several days with highs in the 70s. Troughing will persist over the West for much of next week with multiple systems tracking atop the ridge bringing chances for showers while no particular day looks like a wash out.

High pressure briefly builds in Tuesday allowing for mostly dry weather with a mix of sun and clouds turning mostly cloudy late in the day. Southwest winds through at least the first part of the day will advect warmer air into the area with highs climbing well into the 60s with mid to upper 70s possible across southern NH and interior western Maine. Winds will turn onshore during the afternoon which will cool coastal areas back down into the 50s late afternoon.

A series of systems ejecting out of the trough out West will start to take aim at northern New England Tuesday night through Friday morning. None of these systems look organized enough to bring widespread rainfall but will keep chances for showers in the forecast through the period. The first system crosses Tuesday night with this half of Wednesday looking mostly dry. A couple more waves are progged to cross late Wednesday into Friday morning, although PoPs are generally 30 to 50 percent.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 18Z Sunday...Mostly VFR with northwest winds continuing to gust 25-30kt into early this evening. The exception is MVFR cigs possible at HIE along with a rain or snow shower. Winds will begin diminishing around 22Z-00Z this evening and will continue to do so tonight with VFR continuing. VFR Sunday morning with winds becoming light and south to southwesterly by early afternoon.

Outlook...

Rest of Sunday: VFR

Sunday evening-Monday: IFR to MVFR restrictions and rain showers becoming likely through at least Monday morning, and brief period of LIFR can't be ruled out. Improvement to VFR is possible for most terminals Monday afternoon, although additional showers are possible.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday: Periods of MVFR in scattered showers, otherwise periods of VFR.

MARINE

Gusts could gust over 25 kt into early this evening and have extended the SCA over the outer waters to account for this possibility. The Bays could see occasional gusts to around 25 kt but not as confident to put out an SCA there. Winds and seas will continue to subside overnight as high pressure builds overhead. Winds become more south to southwest Sunday afternoon as the high slides to the south and east. These will likely increase to SCA levels late in the day through Sunday night and Monday as the gradient tightens as low pressure moves across Quebec and a frontal boundary approaches.

Winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds Tuesday through Thursday with winds primarily out of the south.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152-154.