textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure continues to dominate the weather for the week. Expect dry conditions and no significant weather impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure slides offshore today and the resulting return flow will bring slightly warmer temperatures and dewpoints to the region. Temperatures warm into the low to mid-50s areawide with some upper 40s in the far north. Heating looks to get impeded by a shortwave bringing an increase in cloud cover during the afternoon, but many locations will see temperatures similar to, or slightly warmer than, yesterday. Thursday is going to be the noticeably warmer day as return flow transitions to southerly gradient flow as low pressure approaches from the north. Full sun should allow temperatures to mix into the 60s area wide with southern locations nearing 70F. The combination of warming dewpoints and a degree of increasing cloud cover is going to make Thursday night quite mild compared to recent nights with temperatures only bottoming out in the mid to upper 40s for most of the area, and low 50s for the coastal plain.

Low pressure passing to the north drags a cold front through beginning Thursday night, and it looks like it is going to be mostly dry. There is still some uncertainty with how this plays out coverage wise with global ensembles still unsure if showers are going to make it out of the mountains, but this point may ultimately become moot since the aforementioned showers are depicted to only be good for a few hundredths of an inch anyway (around a tenth along the International Border). The 28.00Z NAM nest and RRFS are a little more excited and are showing a more organized band of showers approaching the area, but do also depict it pretty well losing the battle to the dry air to the southeast resulting in little to nothing for the majority of the area.

Any shower activity comes to an end pretty quickly on Friday setting the stage for a dry and seasonable stretch for the Halloween Weekend as high pressure builds right back in. Ensembles are still showing a signal for a more active pattern to start November, but also seem to want to push it back in time with every new run so if/when this comes to fruition is still up in the air.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday: VFR prevails through the day and into the first part of tonight. Light and variable winds this morning become SW into the afternoon with gusts remaining 10 kts or less.

Outlook... Thursday-Thursday: There may again be a brief period of IFR or lower in valley fog at LEB, CON, and MHT prior to sunrise Thursday. Otherwise, VFR continues.

Friday: Another front approaches the region and some MVFR CIGs may be possible north of the mtns, including HIE.

Saturday-Sunday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas expected to remain below SCA thresholds thru today under high pressure. As the high shifts offshore, southwest winds will increase Thu into Fri. Some gusts may approach 25 kt along with seas approaching 5 ft in the vicinity of Skate Bank. Overall I expect conditions to remain below SCA thresholds.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.