textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast remains on track. A cold front is currently moving through New England and will continue to bring drizzly and rainy conditions to New Hampshire and Maine.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Rainy conditions will continue through the afternoon.

2. Light snow on Tuesday gives way to a dry, warming end of the work week. Our next chance for some widespread showers arrives Friday or Saturday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A cold front will slowly move across New England through the remainder of today. The front will consist of mainly steady rain, with very little instability to work with. This is due to a strong low-level inversion, which is also what has been keeping the region in the upper-30s and lower-40s today. The rain should exit the area by the late-afternoon. A northwest breeze looks to pick up behind the front and allow for cold air advection tonight. Temperatures should be noticeably chillier by tomorrow morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

After a mainly dry Monday outside of some mountain snow showers, the next weak wave approaches on Tuesday as the main trough axis moves overhead. This will lead to our next low to medium (30 to 50 percent) precipitation chances. While some rain may briefly mix in across far southern New Hampshire, light snow is expected to be the main precipitation type. Any accumulations will be light, but a dusting to a half inch or so will be possible over portions of central/southern New Hampshire and Interior/coastal Maine, mainly on grassy surfaces. The highest terrain could potentially see an inch or two. Most of the light snow should move out by the evening hours.

High pressure and upper ridging then dominates the weather pattern Wednesday before the next longwave trough starts to approach the region and we transition back into southwest flow aloft to end the work week. While specifics are still unclear this far out, it looks like we will see the next chances for precipitation in the Friday through Sunday timeframe.

Regarding temperatures, cool highs remain in place on Tuesday with highs ranging from the upper 20s and lower 30s north, to the low to mid 40s south. The warmup then begins in earnest on Wednesday and by Friday highs are forecast to range from the lower 50s north, to the low to mid 60s south (mid to upper 50s across the Midcoast). While NBM spread increases through the weekend and into next week, it does appear that above to well above normal temperatures should generally stick around.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Low restrictions are expected this afternoon as rain moves through the area. Conditions start to improve tonight and will allow for most places to rebound to VFR by Monday morning. A possible exception to this is KHIE, as some snow showers there may prolong restrictions. VFR will continue through the day on Monday, but conditions may degrade again Monday night due to incoming wintry precipitation.

Outlook...

Tuesday: Generally VFR with MVFR or lower conditions expected in light snow showers during the day.

Tuesday night-Thursday: VFR conditions are expected through much of next week as we see a period of quiet weather.

Friday-Friday night: Increasing precipitation chances with restrictions possible.

MARINE

Westerly SCA winds will continue through Monday. Winds will weaken to sub-SCA Monday afternoon and stay sub-SCA through Tuesday morning. Seas of 5-8ft are expected this afternoon and will gradually lower to 2-4ft by Tuesday morning.

Sub-SCA conditions should continue through the day on Tuesday, but a period of wind gusts 25-30kts with bring that to an end Tuesday night as a front crosses the waters. Wednesday may also feature sub-SCA conditions as high pressure begins to build over the waters, but the pressure gradient tightening ramps wind gusts and waves up above SCA criteria Wednesday night through Thursday night. Waves might be a little slower to settle than winds, but conditions should improve on Friday with high pressure still in place. Another front crosses the waters Saturday with brief SCA conditions possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Monday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ151. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ153.