textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes were made to the ongoing forecast. The aviation discussion was updated.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Rain tapers off this morning with conditions turning breezy and cooler.

2. Cooler temperatures persist through next week with multiple chances for light precipitation, including light snow showers for the higher peaks.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Rain will continue to taper off south of the mountains from west to east this morning and afternoon with increased mixing resulting in breezy northwest winds. Higher elevations of the western ME mountains and Coos County NH may see a period of snow through about noon.

Based on forecast soundings gusts of 20 to 30 mph look reasonable, but the top of the mixed layer suggests a few could approach 40 mph today. Skies will be cloudy in the morning, but drier air should bring some peeks of sunshine going into the afternoon hours, mainly downwind of the mountains. Highs will again be cooler. The mountains and areas to the northwest will remain mostly cloudy and cooler with upslope flow and ongoing chance for rain and snow showers.

Fair and warmer weather is expected on Monday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Mean mid-lvl trofing will persist through the middle of this week as a series of weak s/wv cross over northern New England. This will result in near avg temperatures with daytime highs into the 40s and 50s from north to south and low temperatures generally at or below freezing. Scattered rain and snow showers will be possible at times as these waves of energy cross through, with the majority of this activity over the mtns and towards the Canadian Border. The upper level pattern will briefly become more zonal on Thursday before a more potent trof arrives Friday into the upcoming weekend.

During this timeframe, an area of low pressure is progged to approach the eastern seaboard from the center of the country. This low is then likely to strengthen as it moves into a region of favorable jet dynamics and it gains energy/moisture from the Atlantic. While there is moderate confidence that an area of low pressure will be located somewhere near the Northeast late week, confidence in the location and track remains low. For now will just continue to monitor forecast trends over the coming days to determine what if any impacts may be felt across the local region.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday...Conditions are mostly MVFR out there at this time, through CIGs are starting to lift back up to VFR from SW to NE. Restrictions will continue to improve for TAF sites south of the mountains as a coastal low continues to move past NH and Maine. Upslope flow is likely to keep restrictions in place through the day today in HIE. Northwest winds could gust as high as 25 to 30 kt today. Tonight, upslope flow should allow for the development of rain and snow showers north of the mountains.

Outlook:

Monday/Monday Night: MVFR-IFR restrictions are possible at HIE with SHRA/SHSN but otherwise mainly VFR conditions likely. WNW wind gusts up to 25 kts possible. Moderate forecast confidence.

Tuesday/Tuesday Night: Restrictions possible at HIE with SHRA/SHSN but otherwise VFR conditions likely. WSW wind gusts up to 20 kts possible. Moderate forecast confidence.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: Restrictions possible at HIE with SHRA/SHSN but otherwise VFR conditions likely. Moderate forecast confidence.

Thursday/Thursday Night: VFR conditions likely. Moderate forecast confidence.

Friday/Friday Night: Restrictions possible with developing -RA. Low forecast confidence.

MARINE

SCA conditions are likely today as north to northwest winds increase as low pressure pulls away to the northeast.

Low pressure remains over the Maritimes through the middle of next week with winds across the waters ranging from WSW to NW. Brief periods of SCA conditions are possible as a couple of weak fronts cross through.

There are indications of low pressure moving off the Mid-Atlantic coast late next week. The track and strength of the low are uncertain, but increased E/NE winds and seas are possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150- 152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ151- 153.