textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some uncertainty how widespread a wetting rain may occur Friday into Friday night as a cold front passes over the region. Otherwise, low impact weather continues for much of the forecast period.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry weather continues today, with a warming trend into Friday.

2. A disturbance along the cold front to the west will bring a chance of showers late Friday into Friday night.

3. Even warmer temperatures are possible early next week but will come with chances for rain showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure slowly shifting east will bring breezy return flow into New England today. Forecast soundings are very dry aloft, driven mainly by this high's presence from New England into the South. Its influence has left the region void of IVT, thus a disconnect from moisture source regions.

Low level flow will be somewhat more moist in proximity to onshore flow along the Gulf of Maine coast, but interior RH values will fall towards 20 to 30 percent as temps climb higher into the low to mid 50s.

A front approaches from the west tonight, but seems to wash out with little chance of precip into the western mountains. A bit more breeze and cloud overnight in proximity to the hung up front will create a slightly mild Thursday night, setting up a warmer day Friday.

Daytime highs extend into the low to mid 60s Friday. A few higher readings toward 70 may be possible across southern NH, but this will largely be determined how clouds thicken through the course of the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Moisture along the cold front draped across Quebec will advanced northeast through the day Friday. This will result in thickening clouds through the day and showers arriving during the afternoon. Guidance is slow to bring these across the entire CWA, favoring the mountains for any daytime precip. It may not be until later overnight that showers make their way towards interior and coastal locations. Overall QPF continues to be limited, likely pointed to the showery nature and need to overcome such a dry airmass downstream. It may be hard to get widespread wetting rains from this evening south and east of the mountains by Saturday morning.

Behind the front, dry continental air returns on a NW breeze. Temps will be cooler than Friday, but still will see highs nearing the low to mid 50s.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

An unsettled but very warm start to next week is likely as strong 500mb ridging persists over the northeast. Low pressure looks to bring showery weather on Monday and potentially Tuesday. A decent amount of uncertainty still remains on how warm temperatures will be. Showers and denser cloud cover may suppress temperatures from getting as warm as they could get, but breaks in the clouds on Monday and Tuesday could allow for more intense diurnal heating. Tuesday does appear to be the drier of the two days, which likely means that it will also be the hotter of the two days. Even a few days out, guidance is very hot with even the 10th percentile of the NBM above the climatological average. Ridging may continue into the midweek with hot temperatures potentially sticking around beyond Tuesday.

AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday...VFR today with S breeze increasing 20 to 25 kts this afternoon. Short periods of below criteria LLWS pre-dawn as winds increase to 25 kts off the surface. These mix more readily into the morning. Cirrus begins to invade from the west later. Could see some stratus or marine fog build up along the coast into Thursday night, but confidence is still low.

Outlook...

Friday: Low stratus or fog may occur near the coast at times with higher potential for RKD. Otherwise VFR.

Friday Night: Restrictions possible due to showers.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR expected. NW gusts 20-30 kts across the interior Saturday.

Monday: Restrictions possible due to showers.

MARINE

Below SCA conditions expected through Thursday. Southerly flow increases, with some 25 kt gusts possible on the outer zones. In addition, fog may develop, reducing visibility.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters Friday through Sunday. Seas look to be around 2-5ft with SCA issuance unlikely during this period. By Monday morning, southerly winds pick up to near Gale Force, with seas rising to 5-7ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.