textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to the going forecast in the short term as the latest guidance has continued to be in reasonable agreement with a warm-up into midweek with little to no impactful weather expected through Wednesday daytime.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Slippery travel possible early this morning as residual wet surfaces that are untreated with likely freeze.

2. Active weather is expected at the end of the week, with a storm system forecast to bring rain and potentially some light snow as well. Well-below average temperatures and wind chills are possible over the upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Any snow will come to an end by the early morning hours. However, slippery surfaces are expected, mainly those that are untreated. Motorists and pedestrians should use caution during the morning commute. Thereafter, we expect temperatures to warm well into the 40s at lower elevations with mid 30s to around 40s in the mountain valleys.

Tonight we'll expect refreezing of untreated surfaces as temperatures dip well down into the 20s. However, Wednesday will be even warmer with highs ranging from the 50s in southern NH to the lower 40s in mountain valleys. Otherwise, we expect increasing clouds as the next low pressure system approaches.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

By the end of the week, a mid-level ridge shifts eastward, with low pressure moving across it. The low arrives in the northeast on Thursday, with generally rain and light snow likely. Snow is most likely across the interior. The low may strengthen over the area as it passes through, allowing for a changeover to all rain as it exits the northern New England Friday morning.

Breezy northwest winds are expected through the day on Friday as a pressure gradient sets up behind the departing low. An arctic airmass will also move in from the north, with well-below average temperatures arriving for the weekend. Wind chills could even fall below 0F at times north of the mountains.

AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

We expect VFR conditions today through Wednesday. 5 to 10 knot winds turn southerly late today and southwesterly on Wednesday.

Outlook (Wednesday Night through Saturday):

Wednesday night - Thursday night: IFR possible in rain and snow.

Friday - Friday night: Improving to VFR with possible restrictions lingering in the mountains.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR expected.

MARINE

SCA conditions continue as low pressure deepens across Atlantic Canada. High pressure builds in today, bringing easing winds, but seas likely take until Wednesday morning to subside below 5ft across the outer waters. In addition a brief period of low- end SCA winds may emerge again tonight.

Through the remainder of the week, southwesterly winds flirting in and out of SCA and sub-SCA conditions are expected. Seas of 3-6ft are expected Wednesday night and Thursday. Seas increase to 5-10ft as a low moves across the waters on Friday. Winds will also strengthen by Friday morning, potentially nearing gale force. On Friday, winds shift from southeasterly to northwesterly, with winds and seas gradually lowering into the next weekend.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ150-152- 154.