textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have allowed the Small Craft Advisory in Casco Bay to expire. Otherwise, adjusted the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A nor'easter will continue to weaken as it exits east today with much of the remaining rainfall ending this morning. Additional impacts from this system are not expected.

2. Temperatures run well above normal by the middle of the week with dry conditions before a cold front brings a chance of showers late Friday.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Latest surface analysis shows a weakening nor'easter tracking northeast across the Gulf of Maine. This system will continue rain chances into the pre-dawn hours with chances diminishing NW to SE through mid morning. Winds will generally be light and shift N to NW through today. Waves heights have been on the downward trend and will generally be less than 5 feet by this afternoon. Clouds will likely hang tough along the coast into the afternoon with breaks in the clouds across the interior. Highs today will range from near 60F across the north to 70F across southern NH. Dewpoints will be elevated and will stay that way into tonight that will bring potential for areas of fog.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

We will see a series of upper level ridges move across the region Wednesday and Thursday which will lead to mainly dry conditions and a significant warming trend. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the upper 60s north, to the lower 70s south and along the coast. Then by Thursday and Friday, we should see widespread highs in the 70s, potentially even some readings in the lower 80s across southern New Hampshire and southwest Maine. These temperatures will be well above normal for this time of year, especially on Thursday.

A cold front then move across the forecast area on Friday, which will lead to a cooling trend through the weekend. By Sunday, highs will probably be back in the upper 50s to mid 60s.

The passage of the cold front will lead to a slight chance of showers (20 to 30 percent) on Friday. The best chances will be over the higher terrain and north but we will should at least see some showers elsewhere. Some guidance then suggests that the next rain maker will move in Sunday or Monday next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through tonight...Low cigs and reduced visibility in fog will continue to bring widespread IFR to LIFR until 12Z and longer at AUG and RKD. Conditions gradually improve to MVFR this morning with areas of VFR this afternoon, mainly across NH TAF sites. Areas of fog tonight will likely bring restrictions to LEB and HIE with potential for restrictions elsewhere. No LLWS is anticipated through the period.

Outlook:

Wednesday - Thursday: VFR conditions expected.

Friday: A cold front will lead to a slight chance for a few showers but widespread restrictions are not expected.

Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Winds have dropped below 25 kts while seas will continue to run greater than 5 feet into this morning. Seas will subside through the day as a weakening nor'easter exits the Gulf of Maine this afternoon. Winds and seas are likely to be below SCA thresholds this afternoon and remain there through mid week.

Southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday night will near SCA levels before subsiding again later Friday and through the weekend as high pressure builds towards the region.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ150- 152-154.