textproduct: Gray - Portland

SYNOPSIS

Low pressure developing over the Great Lakes will send moisture into New England through the day with light rain developing tonight. A cold front crosses Wednesday night into Thursday bringing blustery conditions by Thanksgiving through the holiday weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

Return flow becomes established today as the surface ridge pulls off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a developing Ohio River Valley low rapidly pushes northeast. Clouds will be thickening and lowering through the day as southerly moisture transport becomes established at all levels. Isentropic lift overrunning precipitation will will hold off though throughout the day. Expect a rebound in temperatures today with above normal temperatures. Winds will be breezy from the south but overall, no impactful weather to speak of.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Key Messages: * A brief period of very light icing for mountain valley areas, but overall threat is currently low for tonight * Mostly light beneficial rain is expected Tuesday night through Wednesday.

Much needed rain is expected Tuesday night as isentropic lift in the form of cold front pushes across New England. There is still a chance for a pocket or two of light freezing rain in the mountain valleys, but overall confidence remains low as the set-up isn't looking conducive. Will continue to trend down the NBM probs for freezing rain with this package update as cloud cover and low level mixing will limit radiational cooling after sunset enough. Road surfaces should also be rather warm, thus limited threat for any slippery conditions. Overall rainfall amounts will remain light in the quarter to half an inch rain, with some locally higher amounts in the mountains. November rainfall amounts are not promising for ending the ongoing drought as deficits are up around 1.5" again for this month. Overall no significant weather impacts expected.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Overview: A sharp cold front will cross the region Wednesday night into Thursday morning, bringing cooler temperatures and gusty westerly winds. Other than upslope snow across the mountains and towards the Canadian Border, mainly dry conditions will prevail Thursday through Saturday with temperatures trending below avg. Our next chance for more widespread precipitation currently appears to be centered around the Monday-Tuesday timeframe.

Impacts: West-southwesterly wind gusts up to around 35 mph are possible on Friday. Otherwise, no significant weather related impacts are currently expected.

Forecast Details: Vertically stacked low pressure over southern Quebec will send a sfc cold front southward across New England Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Sharply cooler temperatures will move in aloft with H8 temperatures falling by around 10C by Thursday morning. Lingering showers will gradually become mainly confined to the mountains and far north overnight, with a transition to snow as the colder air arrives. Low temperatures will range from the lower 30s across the north with near 40 degrees along the coast and in southern NH.

We will remain under broad troffing on Thursday with gusty westerly winds up to around 30 mph. Skies will be partly sunny south of the mountains with mainly cloudy skies across the mountains and far north. High temperatures will range from the 30s across the north with 40s south. Upslope snow is then likely Thursday night across the north/mountains with partly cloudy skies further to the south as low temperatures fall mainly into the 20s. Cold and blustery conditions are then likely Friday through Saturday with high temperatures mainly into the 30s and lows into the teens and 20s. Westerly wind gusts up to around 35 mph at times will make it feel even colder. Snow will also persist across the mountains with several inches of accumulation possible, especially on Friday. Latest ensemble based guidance shows our next best chance for widespread precipitation to occur somewhere during the Monday- Tuesday timeframe.

AVIATION /04Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Short Term...VFR conditions through the day today with no significant aviation impacts. Expect conditions to deteriorate tonight as rain and low ceilings overrun the region as a warm front pushes through. IFR conditions are likely at most TAF terminals by midnight tonight. Expect conditions to improve by Wednesday morning as the main precipitation field moves northward with isolated showers and variable MVFR ceilings throughout the day.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely through the period, although upslope flow may result in instances of MVFR CIGS at times at KHIE. Winds will increase out of the W-SW Thursday through Friday with gusts up to around 30 kts possible.

MARINE

Short Term...SCA conditions are expected today as southerly return flow winds continue to increase through the day with building seas ahead of the next cold front. Winds could briefly trend down for a period tonight before increasing once again through the day on Wednesday with SCA conditions most likely continuing withe pre-frontal southerly winds.

Long Term...Westerly gales are possible Thursday through Saturday morning with SCA conditions in the bays. Seas of 6-10 ft outside of the bays and 1-4 ft in the bays themselves are possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM EST Tuesday for ANZ150- 152-154.