textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes with this update.

KEY MESSAGES

A coastal storm will continue to bring a threat of accumulating snow through morning, mainly in the mountains of the Upper Valley into the Monadnocks.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure continues to evolve off the southern New England coast. Forcing has struggled to consolidate so far, as convective influences have really dominated. Gradually the expectation is that a broad band of precip will set up over the far southern zones of the forecast area. Because precip has been so light, temps have not fallen much below the upper 30s. So snow has been hard to come by except for at the highest elevations. As the precip shield fills in thru sunrise I do anticipate that some light snow will occur over the higher terrain of the Upper Valley into the Monadnocks. Ultimately this is looking more like a couple of inches for peaks like the Monadnocks and Sunapee. The biggest change in guidance over the last 24 hours has been to rapidly turn off precip during the first half of today. Much of the area north of LEB to PWM look to be dry thru the entire system. A dry, northerly breeze will help to clear things out today but it will remain chilly.

Cool and dry continues thru the weekend as high pressure builds back in. Daytime temps will likely be a couple degrees below normal, but overnight ideal radiational cooling conditions will see readings well below normal. Heading towards midweek temps will begin to moderate and above normal temps may return to the region.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 06Z Saturday: Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions will continue across the southern half of the forecast area thru about midday. At this time there is not much precip forecast anymore and what falls should be mostly rain. Then gradual improvement is expected with VFR conditions becoming widespread by nightfall. Some MVFR CIGs may develop as winds turn more northwesterly in the vicinity of HIE.

Outlook...

Saturday-Sunday: VFR conditions expected, except HIE where MVFR CIGs remain possible. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Moderate confidence.

MARINE

Northeasterly winds will continue to increase thru morning as low pressure deepens south of New England. Marginal gale conditions are expected on the outer waters with SCA conditions over the coastal waters and perhaps extending into the bays. Winds will diminish this evening but seas may take until Sat before falling below 5 ft. Then the next potential SCA conditions arrive Mon with the passage of a weak cold front and northwesterly winds becoming breezy in its wake.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for ANZ150>154. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Friday for ANZ180-182-184.