textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor changes to reflect latest observational trends.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure will be in control most of the upcoming week, bringing fair weather and near normal daytime temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure will be in control for much of the upcoming week with little in the way of prospects for rain. Tonight will again see good radiational cooling but is not expected to be quite as chilly as dewpoints are a bit higher, putting lows in the 20s and 30s. Monday will see milder temperatures in the upper 50s to low 60s with increasing high clouds from the distant nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas, and these may be enough to limit cooling Monday night, especially over eastern and southern areas. Some increase in moisture may result in low stratus or fog along the coast and interior Monday night but is uncertain due to the clouds and maybe enough of a breeze to keep things mixed. Otherwise, similar highs continue Tuesday with more sunshine by the afternoon, and then temperatures cool down a bit into the mid 50s for highs on Wednesday.

The first very low chance of rain comes Thursday as a moisture- starved front crosses, and the next is Thursday night or Friday as an upper trough swings through, which will also keep the nor'easter well to the south and east, although it still may be a bit breezy near the coast. Only a handful of ensemble members bring measurable precip whether from the front, upper trough, or even enough moisture from the distant nor'easter, and the latest NBM PoP of only around 10% reflects this. High pressure then returns for at least the first half of the weekend prolonging the mostly dry weather. High temperatures trend back up to near or slightly above normal on Thursday ahead of the front and then return to slightly below normal late week and the start of the weekend.

The dry air in place much of this week will also favor slightly cooler than normal low temperatures, mostly in the 20s and 30s.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00Z Tuesday...VFR with light winds, mainly out of the S during the daytime hrs. Can't completely rule out valley fog at LEB tonight, but chances are too low to put in the TAF. No LLWS is anticipated.

Monday night: Fog or low stratus could develop and bring IFR/MVFR along portions of the coast and interior. However, confidence is low.

Tuesday-Wedneday night...VFR. N/NNE winds could gust to around 20 kt Tuesday into Wednesday.

Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR. Some showers are possible, but chances currently appear very low. North winds could gust up to 25 kt on Friday.

MARINE

High pressure overhead keeps conditions under SCA levels through Monday. SCA conditions are then likely from Monday night through most of the week due to swells from the nor'easter off the coast of the Carolinas. This nor'easter will lift northeast later this week but is expected to remain south and east of the waters. Periods of north to northeast wind gusts above 25 kt are possible Monday night through Wednesday and then again toward late week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.