textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little has changed to the forecast other than to issue a gale warning on all waters for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night for northerlies on the western fringes of offshore coastal low.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Continued cold today through tonight. A bit warmer Sunday but still below freezing area-wide with 25 to 30 MPH northerly gusts, especially on the coast. Precipitation with offshore low remains offshore.

2. High astronomical tides Sunday through Monday combined with an offshore low pressure system may bring water levels to near minor flood stage during times of high tide.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...The broken record consisting of cold air continues today and tonight. A very cold early morning is in store today that will only warm to around 20 degrees at low elevations this afternoon and mid teens well inland. However, mid 20s seems attainable on Sunday making it feel somewhat warmer. The problem is that we'll have a gusty northerly wind and a shield of clouds overhead. Overall, with the Mid Atlantic storm trending farther offshore at our latitude impacts other than perhaps some coastal flooding should be minimal at best.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...High astronomical tides Sunday into Monday combined with between 1-2 ft of surge from distant low pressure over the North Atlantic may bring total water levels to near minor flood stage during times of high tide. The greatest tide of concern is the late Monday morning high tide cycle, which will occur around 11 AM local time. The ETSS surge guidance seemed too high for this event and therefore blended in ESTOFS to lower the forecast some. Nevertheless, some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding remains possible.

AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 06z Sunday...No sig weather expected with NW winds gusting less than 20kt. VFR with mostly SKC this morning, some afternoon cu for interior terminals. Most consistent ceilings will be NW of the White mtns, generally low VFR with period of MVFR this afternoon for HIE. Offshore cloud deck may backbuild towards PSM/PWM through this morning and afternoon. This may result in FEW/SCT MVFR decks. This deck will thicken and lower, especially just off the coast, this evening and overnight.

Outlook... Sunday: No sig wx. N winds increase, with gusts 15 to 25 kt across interior, and up to 30 kt along coastal terminals. Brief window of LLWS possible in the morning before mechanical mixing begins.

Monday/Monday night: VFR conditions expected with NW wind gusts up to 20 kts.

Tuesday/Tuesday night: VFR conditions with light and variable winds.

Wednesday: VFR conditions with NW winds at 5-15 kts.

MARINE

Gales have been posted for Sunday afternoon and Sunday night as low pressure passes well to the east.

Seas will remain elevated through Monday night outside of the bays at 4-9 ft. Winds and seas will then largely remain below SCA criteria through the remainder of the period.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for MEZ007>009. NH...Cold Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for NHZ003-005- 007>009-011>013-015. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>154. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.