textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A 20-30% chance of snow showers has been added for Saturday afternoon and evening across the mountains and portions of NH as an upper-level disturbance crosses through, but most locations will stay dry.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Skies clear today behind the passing cold front, with high pressure bringing fair weather for the weekend.

2. Weather pattern will stay active next week and wintry weather remains possible.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Showers move offshore during the predawn hours today as a cold front sweeps through northern New England. A colder airmass moves in during the daytime today, resulting in temps mostly holding steady when combined with daytime heating. It won't be until tonight that the cold makes it's presence known, with lows dropping into the single digits and teens through the overnight hours.

A seasonably cool day is on tap for Saturday, with highs ranging from the upper teens across the north, to the mid 30s along the Seacoast. A northwesterly breeze continues through the day as high pressure remains centered through the Ohio River Valley. Weak troughs roll around the periphery of the high pressure center, so intervals of clouds are likely through the day on Saturday. An upper disturbance may also bring a few snow showers to the mountains late in the day.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Active weather may continue into next week. On Monday, a cold front associated with a weak low pressure system in Quebec will allow for some rain and snow showers. Snow accumulations if any are likely to stay north of the mountains.

High pressure moves in behind the aforementioned cold front, and another system arrives in New England towards the middle of next week. At this time, ensembles are fairly confident precipitation will be rain for most, though snow and mixed precipitation can't be ruled out in areas along the Canadian border. Another system moves in for the end of the week, bring more rain and snow to northern New England.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12z Saturday...A few lingering MVFR cigs possible through 14Z, but conditions will return back to VFR thereafter for the remainder of today. Northwest winds will be breezy most of the day with gusts mostly 20-25kt but can't rule out a few gusts closer to 30 kt. Winds ease toward sunset with VFR prevailing through tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night: Mostly VFR with no sig wx. A snow shower or two may bring brief restrictions to HIE late Saturday into Saturday night.

Sunday-Monday: VFR conditions expected.

Monday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Tuesday: Increasingly possible that CIGs develop ahead of the next storm system. Low confidence of IFR conditions, but they are possible.

MARINE

SCA conditions continue into tonight behind a passing cold front Conditions then gradually ease through Saturday as high pressure builds across the waters.

Sub-SCA southwesterly winds and seas if 2-4ft are expected Sunday morning. Winds and seas will strengthen to 4-6ft as low pressure moves in from the west. These SCA conditions will continue through Monday morning. Sub-SCA winds and seas are anticipated after, as winds and seas decrease during the day on Monday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ151- 153. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ154.