textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The Small Craft Advisory has been allowed to expire as winds and seas continue to subside.

KEY MESSAGES

1. After some late season snow we return to near to just below normal, but dry weather. A big warmup is expected next week.

2. Cold front on Friday, with tranquil weather expected over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

We will begin a gradual warming trend today but keep the weather dry. That is the primary focus in the short term. Very dry air mass aloft settles into the region and even modest mixing should bring down those dry dewpoints. Fire weather conditions start to creep back into the forecast consciousness. Based on forecast mixing heights today, I anticipate widespread single digit dewpoints and min RH values dropping into the teens for large swaths of the forecast area. With cooler temps, light winds, and recent snow keeping surface fuel moist I do not anticipate significant fire weather concerns. Going into Thu temps warm and southerly winds will become gusty. Away from the coast min RH values should drop to or below 25 percent, so if we can dry out the surface fuels it might get a little busier. The NBM is doing a fair job for today, but dewpoints look too high for Thu, so I will be lowering those with some mixed down dewpoints and 5th percentile NBM guidance. By Fri it will be much warmer but also with significant moisture advection that should keep RH values in more moderate levels.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Friday night, a cold front looks to move across northern New England from northwest to southeast. Guidance suggests that the front should be progressive and drier, with lower rainfall amounts more plausible at this time. Once this front passes, high pressure will arrive for the weekend with more seasonable temperatures likely. Next week starts off unsettled with measurable rainfall possible for Monday.

AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 12Z Thursday...VFR expected.

Outlook:

Thursday: VFR conditions expected.

Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected. Possible areas of low stratus developing near the coast.

Friday: VFR conditions expected. Possible areas of low stratus developing near the coast.

Friday Night: Restrictions possible due to showers.

Saturday and Sunday: VFR Expected.

MARINE

Marginal SCA conditions expected outside of the bays thru morning. Conditions remain below SCA thresholds until Thu when southerly flow increases and some 25 kt gusts return. Thu into Fri will have to watch for marine fog/stratus formation as moisture returns northward.

Light and variable winds are expected over the waters Friday through Sunday. Seas look to be around 2-5ft with SCA issuance unlikely during this period.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.