textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Issued a Freezing Spray Advisory over the open waters for tomorrow. Otherwise, little has changed for the current weekend forecast.

Tide levels continue to trend slightly lower for Sunday Night and Monday as a powerful ocean storm tracks slightly further out to sea. However, minor coastal flooding remains possible around the time of high tide Sunday night and Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cold weather continues through tomorrow morning. A warmer day is expected Sunday, with high temperatures in the teens and lower 20s.

2. Minor coastal flood remains possible around the times of high tide Sunday night and Monday morning.

3. A relative warm up brings temperatures close to average early this upcoming week. Then, another cool down is expected by late next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... High pressure overhead this evening will allow for some pockets of radiational cooling across New Hampshire and Maine. The setup looks similar to this morning's, with the most significant radiational cooling likely to be in the foothills, especially near Fryeburg. What will make tonight's cooling different is that upper- level heights will be about 6 dms higher than last night, in addition to some intermittent very light northerly winds. Lows are expected to be in the single digits below zero, with perhaps some double digit below zero readings in low-lying areas near Littleton, NH and Fryeburg.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

The combination of high astronomical tides, surge, and high surf from an offshore storm brings multiple chances for minor coastal flooding late Sunday evening, and again late Monday morning. Overall the storm has trended a little further out to sea, lessening the overall impact potential. However, minor coastal flooding, splashover, and some beach erosion remain possible through the event. The best chance for this will be along the NH Seacoast, where the highest surge and largest waves are expected with the northerly flow.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

A ridge of high pressure builds in from the southwest early this week, bringing a relative warm up to start the week. While few would consider temps getting back to near freezing as warm, this would be the warmest readings we've seen on over a week and a half. Widespread highs in the low 30s are expected south of the mountains and foothills Monday through Wednesday.

Then for the second half of the week, colder temps likely return as the next trough digs into the Northeast US from Canada. Some uncertainty remains on where the coldest portion of the airmass will be directed into the US, but the potential exists for highs in the teens and sub zero lows to return by next weekend.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

00Z TAF Update:

Tonight-Sunday: VFR conditions expected with some cirrus of around 25k ft arriving towards 12Z Sunday. Winds will primarily light and variable at ~5 kts. VFR conditions will persist on Sunday with increasing N winds during the afternoon with gusts approaching 25 kts. No LLWS is anticipated through the period.

Outlook:

Sunday Night: VFR Expected.

Monday - Tuesday Night: VFR Expected.

Wednesday - Wednesday night: MVFR possible north, VFR more likely elsewhere, and snow showers possible.

Thursday - Friday: VFR expected south, MVFR more likely north.

MARINE

Light northerly winds and 2-3ft seas this afternoon will gradually build as a low moves across the Atlantic Ocean. By Sunday morning, northerly winds strengthen to Gale Force, with 3-6ft seas expected. Gales will continue through the day, with perhaps a few near storm force gusts possible Sunday evening. These stronger gusts are most likely offshore from Penobscot Bay. Winds slacken Sunday night, but seas continue to build a little more. 4-9ft seas are expected by early Monday morning, but winds should weaken to SCA levels.

SCA conditions ease by Tuesday morning as high pressure builds across the waters. This window of fair conditions last into Wednesday. A cold front crosses the waters late Wednesday, with SCA conditions possible behind the front Wednesday night and Thursday.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Freezing Spray Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Sunday for ANZ150>154. Gale Warning from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for ANZ150>154.