textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

500mb trough is in the process of crossing through the area, and as a result some decent returns are showing up on the GYX radar in the western Maine foothills. Models haven't latched onto this quite yet, but I have increased PoPs for light snow showers in western ME spanning from the foothills into the Lakes Region and Kennebec Valley over the next few hours this morning. The Aviation section has also been updated for the 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler conditions prevail through the weekend with chances for snow showers mainly in the mountains. We will then gradually warm back to above normal temperatures next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Multi-model consensus shows that upper level troughing will remain over Northern New England through at least early Monday. This will mean mostly cloudy skies for much of the area with seasonably chilly temperatures. As an embedded vorticity maximum moves southward through the broader cyclonic flow, forcing for ascent will be sufficient for scattered to perhaps even a period of widespread snow showers in the mountains. Lower elevations likely experience scattered rain showers and maybe some graupel?

The trough begins to lose its grip on our region during the day on Sunday. It will still be mostly cloudy and cool, but showery weather should be relegated to the mountains.

Ridging then starts to nudge in to begin the work week, which will lead to a gradual warming trend back to above normal temperatures. On Monday, highs will mainly range from the upper 30s to upper 40s, but we will be back to widespread highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s by midweek with a few lower 60s possible across the south. With high pressure dominating, next week should remain dry. The next trough may approach at the end of the week into next weekend but nothing looks impactful at the moment.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday: Periods of snow showers will likely develop over the mountains today and tonight which could lead to MVFR cigs and MVFR to IFR visibilities at LEB and HIE. Some shower activity is also possible today but not confident enough to go beyond VCSH at AUG and PWM. Winds will generally be out of the north to northwest and generally less that 10 knots.

Outlook...

Sunday: VFR conditions expected, except HIE where MVFR CIGs and snow showers remain possible. Northwest winds could gust 20-25 kt.

Monday-Thursday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

Winds and seas will continue to relax through today. Then the next potential SCA conditions arrives Sun afternoon and evening but it would be low-end and relatively brief. Monday SCAs possible with the passage of a weak cold front and northwesterly winds becoming breezy in its wake.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.