textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change since the previous forecast cycle.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures will start to recover today with rain expected tonight into Monday morning before becoming more showery later Monday.

2. Above normal temperatures likely Tuesday through the end of the week with showery weather continuing through the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Surface high pressure will slide southeast of New England today, allowing for developing south-southwesterly flow. Mainly sunny skies will prevail through the first half of the day before clouds begin to increase from southwest to northeast ahead of an approaching warm front. The lower to middle levels will remain very dry though with afternoon RH into the 20-30% range, and this will prevent any showers from beginning until the evening hours. High temperatures will be into the lower to middle 50s across the interior with readings into the 40s to 50 degrees along the coastline.

The aforementioned surface warm front will lift northward tonight, allowing for a period of rainfall through Monday morning. Some ice is possible across the highest terrain. Rainfall amounts will likely be lightest across southern NH with between 0.10- 0.20" with between 0.25-0.50" further to the north. Higher amounts are possible across the mountains with perhaps an inch or so. Given the ongoing drought conditions, no hydro issues are currently anticipated. Low temperatures will be into the 30s/40s. Lingering showers are possible later on Monday as southwesterly winds allow high temperatures to reach the middle to upper 60s with a few spots possibly approaching the 70 degree mark. Monday night will be mild with lows only into the 50s with showers becoming more isolated in nature.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Mid-level ridging over the eastern US looks to continue through the remainder of the upcoming week, allowing for above average temperatures to continue through the rest of the week. Many places are bound to see temperatures in the 70s most of the week, with maybe even some 80F readings poking out across southern New Hampshire on Wednesday.

Multiple low pressure systems look to bring showery weather on through the week. One low looks to move across the area Tuesday night, bringing showers and maybe an isolated thunderstorm to locations north of the mountains. Drier weather looks possible on Wednesday before another system moves in, bringing more showers on Thursday and Friday. Soundings do show some weak instability, with some embedded thunder possible Thursday afternoon. Both systems do not look to bring much rainfall and will certainly not be enough to improve severe drought conditions over northern New England.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

Through 12Z Monday... VFR conditions expected thru the late evening. Winds will shift to onshore during the day and become breezy near the coast. An area of rain moves into the region along a warm front tonight. CIGs will lower, and mostly remain MVFR at the start though some local IFR is possible. This will generally occur from west northwest to east southeast. Eventually more widespread areas of IFR CIGs develop overnight and continue into morning along and just north of the warm front. This is most likely over western Maine. CIGs become more scattered Mon in the warm sector, though MVFR conditions may linger north of the mtns.

Outlook:

Monday Night: Local MVFR or lower possible in showers along cold front.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR.

Tuesday night through Thursday: Periods of MVFR in scattered showers, otherwise periods of VFR.

MARINE

S-SW wind gusts up to 30 kts are expected tonight through Monday morning with seas of 1-4 ft in the bays and 5-9 ft over the outer waters. Winds will relax later Monday but seas will remain elevated through Monday night outside of the bays.

Winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds Tuesday through Thursday with winds primarily out of the south.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Monday for ANZ151-153.