textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change from the previous forecast thinking.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A period of snow will spread across the region from west to east during the morning commute, resulting in slippery travel conditions. Additional afternoon and evening snow showers are then possible, especially from the foothills and points north.

2. Mainly quiet weather is likely late week through the upcoming weekend with near to above average temperatures.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... A surface warm front will lift northward this morning as low pressure moves across Quebec. This will result in a period of light snowfall, bringing impacts to the morning commute. Timing wise, snow will begin between 6-8 am across much of NH before extending into western ME between 8-10 am. Snowfall rates of generally up to 1/2"/hr can be expected, although some rates may briefly approach 1"/hr across portions of southwestern ME due to some weak coastal development. Snow will then end from west to east beginning late morning/early afternoon across much of NH and then early to mid-afternoon across western ME. Total snowfall of 1-3" is expected with localized amounts up to around 4" possible.

High temperatures will range from the upper 20s/lower 30s across the north and interior with upper 30s to near 40 degrees along the coast and in southern NH. A cold front and trof will arrive late day and into the evening and this may result in additional scattered snow showers, especially from the foothills and points north.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A weak surface low looks to develop off the east coast Thursday night. Depending on the storm track, the low may bring some light snow to the immediate coastline. The system will move quickly across the region, and if there is any accumulation it will most likely be a dusting or less.

A fairly quiet period of weather is forecast for the upcoming weekend. A mid-level ridge looks to build up at the end of the week, allowing for a thaw into the weekend. High temperatures are currently forecasted in the upper 40s on Saturday, with dry weather anticipated. Saturday afternoon, a low appears to pass over Quebec with a dry cold front possibly moving southeastward. The passing front will allow for colder temperatures to work their way back into the region for the start of next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 06Z Thursday...Clouds thicken and lower quickly overnight with SN pushing across NH and then ME after 12z. This will likely result in MVFR ceilings and IFR to LIFR vis. Lowest vis is expected to be across EEN, CON, MHT, PSM, and then up the ME coast where periods of 1/2SM is possible. Vis should improve after noon local, but ceilings may remain down. There may be a period of localized LLWS between 12z and 18z pushing across the forecast area, generally 30 to 40 kts. A cold front will bring SHSN this evening. These could bring erratic gusts and locally lower vis.

Outlook:

Thursday: VFR conditions expected.

Thursday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Friday: VFR conditions expected.

Friday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

Saturday Night: VFR conditions expected.

Sunday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

W-SW wind gusts up to 30 kts are likely outside of the bays at times through Thursday with seas of 2-5 ft. S-SW gusts up to 25 kts are likely late this morning through early this evening across western Penobscot Bay with seas of 1-3 ft. Across Casco Bay, winds and seas should remain below SCA criteria. Winds and seas then look to remain below SCA criteria until perhaps Saturday as S winds increase.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM EST Thursday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ151.