textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The wind advisory was allowed to expire.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low strengthens as it tracks southeast across coastal Massachusetts this morning. Winds gradually ease through the afternoon hours.

2. Snow showers in the mountains along with wind chills in the teens to single digits bring winter conditions through this afternoon.

3. Frost is possible across the north Saturday night as a cool airmass settles in.

4. Unsettled pattern persists Sunday through Tuesday with a signal for a warming trend the second half of next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure will track through the Gulf of Maine today, with precip continuing to pull away from the area this afternoon along with diminishing winds.

Rain continues to shut off from north to south through the early afternoon, and will likely be offshore by mid afternoon with breaks of sun all the way to the coast by this evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Snow continues to mix in above 1500ft in southwest New Hampshire into the early afternoon, with light accumulations above 2000ft. Scattered snow showers continue across the northern mountains into the early afternoon, along with continued cool and breezy conditions.

KEY MESSAGE 3 DESCRIPTION...

A cold air mass remains in place tonight with high pressure building in from the west. This will allow temperatures to drop into the low to mid 30s across the mountains and north and the potential for frost.

KEY MESSAGE 4 DESCRIPTION...

Active pattern continues Sunday as another short wave drops south out of Canada. Sunday will start off mostly dry with a mix of sun and clouds. The approaching short wave will allow clouds to blossom with convective showers and thunderstorms developing by the afternoon. Cold air aloft and freezing levels near 6000 feet may allow for some small hail or graupel with stronger cells. It will be warmer at the surface with highs Sunday ranging from the upper 50s north to upper 60s south.

The short wave will be slow to exit Monday with additional short waves upstream. This will bring continued chances for showers through Monday. The pattern remains locked in place into the middle of next week as the incoming short waves close off into an upper that meanders near the East Coast through Wednesday. There is a signal that ridging will possibly make an appearance the second half of next week for a warming trend.

AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 12z Sunday... Conditions continue to gradually improve to VFR from north to south through the day, with VFR becoming likely in the afternoon through the southern terminals. Winds become calm tonight. Valley fog may be possible after midnight tonight.

Outlook:

Sunday: VFR conditions expected in the morning before locally MVFR and IFR conditions become possible in afternoon showers that will last into the night. An isolated thunderstorm or two can't be ruled out, but coverage will remain low.

Monday: Patchy morning fog and a few lingering showers will give away to improving conditions as cloud decks scatter out and rise above 5K. Scattered showers may bring localized restrictions.

Tuesday - Wednesday: A few afternoon showers can't be ruled out bringing tempo MVFR ceilings, but overall improving aviation conditions.

Thursday - Friday: High pressure is favored with VFR conditions and no aviation impacts expected.

MARINE

Low pressure tracks through the Gulf of Maine today. Gales gradually ease through the day, with SCA waves continuing into tomorrow morning.

Unsettled pattern persists Sunday into the middle of next week with multiple troughs of low pressure crossing New England while winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023-024. NH...High Surf Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Gale Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ150-152>154. Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ180-182-184.