textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Cancelled the Flood Watch as remaining rainfall rates have become lighter, with little to no additional flood risk through the morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High astronomical tides will continue into early this week and minor flooding remains possible due to residual surge.

2. Seasonable temperatures will return for much of the week. An unsettled second half of the week is likely with multiple rounds of showers in the forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High astronomical tides continue thru today. The evening tides are of greatest concern for Minor flooding, with the best chance for these levels to be met for Portland and Hampton again tonight. Wave action is expected to be less than last evening, but there has been a fairly consistent 0.5 to 0.75 foot residual surge for a few days now. Additional coastal flood headlines are possible.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Not much change on forecast temps this week. Should see widespread 70s and 80s during the day and falling back into the 50s to near 60 at night. Might even be able to sneak in some 40s in the northern valleys if we can sufficiently clear out. Humidity begins to creep back up by Wed into Thu as the next storm system approaches.

That will come as an upper-level low moves eastward across Ontario and Quebec. As it approaches the lowering heights and warm advection may support afternoon showers Wed. But this system will be seasonably strong based on model forecasts right now. So I am anticipating that by Thu there will be strong synoptic support for rainfall as well as gusty winds. Convective guidance continues to suggest severe weather is a possibility, but that will largely depend on whether we can get any heating and resulting destabilization. Also at this time the rainfall amounts looking like a good soaking, but this time of year you always have to be cognizant of high rainfall rates as CAM guidance starts to become available closer to the event.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12z Tuesday...MVFR/IFR conditions in RA early this morning should clear to the east by 14/15z. Widespread VFR is expected for the remainder of the day with a NW breeze 15 to 20 kts. Winds lighten for tonight with mostly clear skies. Could see some valley fog develop for HIE/LEB after midnight local, but this dissipates Tues morning.

Outlook:

Tuesday - Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Local MVFR or lower possible Wed afternoon in showers.

Thursday - Thursday night: Areas of MVFR or lower possible in rain and low CIGs.

Friday: Low CIGs may linger into Fri before clearing during the afternoon.

Friday night - Saturday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

There may also be areas of fog on the waters this morning. Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds thru most of the week until the next system arrives Thu. Southeasterly winds turning southwesterly may gust up to 30 kt with seas building above 5 ft outside of the bays.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.