textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were needed with this morning forecast update. Just freshened up the near term trends as clouds are starting to stream in from the north as a weak frontal boundary enters the area.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A warm up begins today with mostly dry conditions.

2. Wednesday through Friday will feature mainly dry weather with warming temperatures. Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase some late Friday and over the weekend with a cold front.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Skies are mostly clear for the time being, and with the light winds still could see patchy frost sheltered valley locations and possibly fog along the CT River early this morning.

Clouds then begin to increase from the north after sunrise and should do so through the morning as a slow-moving frontal boundary presses through. The atmosphere is pretty dry overall, but a little more moisture toward the Augusta/Midcoast regions may be sufficient enough for a few showers to develop this afternoon before the front moves offshore.

Otherwise, it'll be a warmer day than yesterday with highs expected to be mostly in the 70s south of the mountains. West to northwest winds gusting to 15 to 20 mph should keep the seabreeze fairly close to the coastline, but it may make it a little farther inland around the Midcoast and cool temps down a bit there.

For tonight, temperatures will be mostly in the 40s, but light winds and mostly clear skies could again allow temperatures to drop into the mid-upper 30s across some of the northern valleys to bring the potential for more patchy frost.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Dry weather is expected Wednesday through Friday morning with temperatures continuing to warm with highs reaching the 80s Thursday and Friday. A cold front sagging southward from Quebec later Friday may provide enough forcing for ascent to aid in the development of a few showers and thunderstorms, especially in our northern zones. The threat for rain and some storms will continue into Saturday but ensemble guidance shows considerable spread in SFC and upper air features by the end of the weekend into early next week, so confidence in PoPs in low.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Through 12Z Wednesday...VFR conditions prevail with most terminals seeing northerly winds gusting 15-20 kts through the afternoon, before calming around 00Z Wednesday.

Outlook:

Wednesday/Wednesday night: VFR with light winds.

Thursday/Friday: High pressure is favored with VFR conditions. However, a sagging cold front may bring a few showers and storms to the western ME mountains late Friday. These could create TEMPO IFR restrictions should they pass over any terminal.

Saturday: Local MVFR to IFR conditions possible in sct showers and storms.

Sunday: Showers and storms may linger and continue to bring the possibility of TEMPO IFR TO MVFR restrictions.

MARINE

Light southwesterly flow across the waters this morning as a weak cold front approaches from the north. The front crosses this afternoon with winds turning northwesterly this evening and tonight. Conditions will remain below SCA levels.

Fair weather is expected Wednesday through Friday with winds and seas remaining below SCA thresholds. Northerly winds may increase Sat or Sun depending on a cold front.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.