textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Frost Advisory this morning has been cancelled as temperatures begin to rise for the day. Added a mention of sprinkles across the north today to accompany isolated to scattered rain/snow showers (depending on surface elevation).

KEY MESSAGES

1. Winds turn more west northwest, followed by cooler and drier conditions through midweek. Frost will be possible each morning through Wednesday.

2. Low pressure dominates New England in the 2nd half of this week, bring multiple days of potentially widespread steady rain and showers through Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Other than a few more isolated showers through the day, it will mainly be dry and cooler than yesterday. Highs should range from upper 40s and lower 50s north, to the lower 60s south. Tonight into Tuesday morning then looks to be another favorable night for frost, and potentially even farther south. Thus, additional headlines will likely be needed. Lows will range from the upper 20s north, to the mid/upper 30s south.

Dry weather then continues on Tuesday but it will be even a touche cooler with highs in the mid/upper 40s north, to the upper 50s/lower 60s south. Widespread frost is then once again expected overnight Tuesday into Wednesday morning.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Little change to the going forecast at this time for midweek as unsettled weather is expected for most of Wed through Fri.

On Wednesday and upper low and slow-moing attendant SFC low pressure approaches from the west. Various members of guidance are showing various degrees of amplification of the short wave troughs and speed of the system as a whole. The mean solution has conditions deteriorating conditions Wednesday afternoon in light rain which continues through Thursday. In fact, moist inflow and forcing for ascent may be enough for a period of heavier rain and perhaps isold thunder during the day on Thursday. The low pressure system basically stalls nearby on Friday allowing for periods of showers and drizzle and perhaps some fog along with colder than normal temperatures. The NBM is too warm it seems. ECMWF two meter temperatures in the mid 50s seems more reasonable.

The weekend looks to be drier for the moment but we'll continue to monitor as there is still some disagreement within the various guidance solutions.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...VFR expected through tonight. Westerly wind gusts in the 15 to 20 knot range are possible this afternoon before becoming light and variable tonight.

Outlook:

Tuesday: VFR expected.

Wednesday: AM VFR, MVFR in the afternoon due to rain.

Thursday and Friday: MVFR due to showers and possible isold thunder. Areas of IFR possible as well, especially at the coast.

MARINE

Winds shift offshore this morning. SCA continues through most of today as swell builds due to passing offshore disturbance. This could keep 4 to 6 ft waves towards the northern coastal waters into this afternoon.

Southeast winds increase on Wednesday afternoon and may rise to SCA levels later Wed afternoon through Thurs. Winds diminish and flip to light northerlies by Friday morning, with seas continuing to remain at 2-5 ft.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ150- 152.