textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Have cancelled the coastal flood statement as water levels continue to fall post-high tide. This should be the final tide with coastal flood impacts.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Weakening Nor'easter will bring additional beneficial rain through tonight with coastal impacts gradually diminishing before the system pulls away from the region on Tuesday.

2. Temperatures move well above seasonal norms by the middle of the week with dry conditions before a cold front brings a chance of showers to end the week.

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Vertically stacked and decaying Nor'easter to spin southeast of New England....but has finally started to move to the northeast which will lead it into the Gulf of Maine through Tuesday. Thus...we expect one more night of rainfall and elevated temperatures before the drying trend begins on Tuesday.

Some details follow...

Rain: Bands of showers/rain will continue to pivot through the region tonight as the low pressure system makes it/s closest approach. HREF PMM graphics suggest some locations along the coast may see another 0.5-0.75" of rain overnight with amounts trailing off as you head inland. Rates will generally be light to moderate and therefore no flood impacts are expected...but instead a beneficial rain across the region. Shower activity diminishes after midnight and especially by Tuesday morning.

Wind: There have been a few gusts 30-35 mph along the NH coast..and 25-30mph along the ME coast today. These will quickly subside this evening and back more northerly as low pressure moves into the Gulf of Maine. No significant wind impacts are expected.

Coastal Impacts: Surge values of continue around 1'but will subside tonight. With the next astronomical high tide lower than the one that just passed...we should be done with additional statements/etc. As for the high surf advisory...6-10 footers continue along the coast and will also gradually subside tonight. Have continued the high surf advisory into the evening to account for the continued wave action...well evident on coastal webcams this afternoon.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

A ridge of high pressure builds towards the region on Tuesday and then crests Wednesday before moving offshore by Thursday. The result will be a drier period of weather with temperatures warming each day. By Thursday...T8s push to around 13C which should allow high temperatures to move well into the 70s with a few spots likely touching 80. This is roughly 10 degrees above seasonal norms for the beginning of October. A strengthening polar jet across the US/Canadian border will drive a cold front towards the region by Friday. At this range...there is only modest ensemble support for measurable rainfall with the frontal passage...with no widespread significant rainfall seen at this time. Therefore, no additional drought relief is expected across the region after tonight/s rainfall. High pressure should usher in a cooler/drier airmass for the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Summary: Rain...low clouds...and fog will dominate conditions across the region through tonight as low pressure south of New England moves north and east. Gradually improving conditions from west to east are expected Tuesday with quiet conditions through at least Thursday night.

Restrictions: LIFR/IFR south/east of the mountains with MVFR and occasional IFR continuing at HIE/LEB. Deterioration to LIFR dominating most locations is expected in rain...low clouds...and fog. Gradual improvement to VFR is expected from west to east during the day on Tuesday. Overnight valley fog is expected at HIE/LEB Tuesday night...which will also be possible at CON.

Winds: Northeast winds 10G16KTS /weaker inland/ will gradually back more northerly through tonight and northwesterly on Tuesday while diminishing to less than 10kts.

LLWS: No LLWS is expected through Tuesday night.

Thunder: No thunder is expected through Tuesday night.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected Wednesday through at least Thursday night. A cold front will bring a chance for a few showers by Friday but widespread restrictions are not expected.

MARINE

SCA winds and waves continue this afternoon as Nor'easter slowly moves north and east into the Gulf of Maine tonight through Tuesday. Winds will fall below SCA levels this evening with seas taking a bit longer to follow suit. Expect headline- free conditions over the waters by Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Southwest winds ahead of an approaching cold front Thursday night will near SCA levels...before subsiding again later Friday and through the weekend as high pressure builds towards the region.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for MEZ023>027. NH...High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NHZ014. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151. Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ153.