textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast package this early Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A strong cold front crosses the area today bringing gusty winds and a few showers. Colder and breezy conditions continue into Tuesday with the coldest night of the season so far possible Tuesday night. Many locations south of the mountains could see frost.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

A sharp cold front will sweep across the forecast area today. Prior to that, low clouds and/or fog will be prevalent early on, mainly on the coastal plain and central ME.

The front may be accompanied by a few gusty showers but overall most locations will remain dry. The main result of the FROPA will be wind as strong low level mixing will take place in the midst of a tight pressure gradient. Westerly gusts of 25 to 35 MPH continue to be expected for this afternoon, with a few gusts around 40 MPH possible. A few power outages will be possible.

Winds will diminish as the night progresses tonight. However, in the zones where the growing season is still active (mainly the coastal plain) the winds should remain up enough to preclude a frost. Therefore, no frost advisories are planned at this time.

Mostly sunny and dry for Tuesday except for continued gusty winds of around 25 MPH.

Winds diminish Tuesday evening into Tuesday night as high pressure builds overhead. With mostly clear skies, conditions appear favorable for good radiational cooling and perhaps the coldest night of the season thus far. Northern valleys and normally colder spots could see lows in the 20s with 30s elsewhere, and frost is looking likely for many areas south of the mountains with some possibly seeing a freeze, except maybe the immediate coast.

Beyond that, the high pressure quickly moves east Wednesday, bringing a return to southerly flow ahead a cold front that looks to cross late in the Thursday or the early part of Thursday night. Temperatures should bounce back to near normal Wednesday (60-65F) south of the mountains and could be a few degrees above on Thursday with mid 60s to around 70F. Rainfall amounts with this front continue to look light with the mountains/northern areas standing the better chance for showers and light amounts.

Temperatures cool back down a few degrees behind this front for Friday with some upslope showers possible in the mountains. Models are in somewhat good agreement with an upper disturbance that may bring a few showers Friday night into early Saturday before high pressure brings mostly dry conditions the remainder of the weekend.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 00z Tuesday...Ceilings continue to lower ahead of a cold front prior to sunrise this morning. IFR conditions continue at most southern and coastal terminals. IFR to LIFR is also likely at LEB in valley fog through mid morning. MVFR elsewhere at times through 13z. Ceilings should lift rather quickly today back to VFR as a cold front sweeps through. Northwesterly winds behind the front gust 25-35 kts this afternoon and evening.

Outlook:

Tonight: VFR prevails with continued breezy northwest winds.

Tuesday: VFR conditions expected with gusty west-northwest winds continuing, but weakening as the day goes on.

Tuesday night: IFR or lower valley fog possible at HIE and LEB. Otherwise VFR.

Wednesday-Friday: Mainly VFR with a few showers possible toward HIE. Valley fog remains possible each night at LEB and HIE. There may also be some lower ceilings in western ME ahead of a front Wednesday night into Thursday.

Friday night-Saturday: A chance of showers and MVFR restrictions Friday night into early Saturday. VFR the rest of the Saturday.

MARINE

A cold front crossed the waters today with rapid wind shift to the WNW with wind gusts of 25-30 knots expected with wave heights building to around 5 ft. Both diminish by the end of the day Tuesday, followed by high pressure settling over the waters Tuesday night.

Wednesday-Monday...The high quickly shifts east Wednesday, and then southerly winds potentially increase to SCA levels later in the day through Thursday ahead of a cold front. The front crosses late in the day Thursday or Thursday night, and then high pressure builds toward New England during the upcoming weekend, likely keeping conditions below SCA levels.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Monday to 5 PM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150>154.