textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little has changed in the near and short term as the various guidance sources continue to be in reasonable agreement with a couple of weak weather systems moving through tonight and Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warmup continues today through Wednesday. A couple of weak systems will move through the region this tonight and Wednesday bringing a few bouts of light precipitation to the forecast area, mainly rain showers at lower elevations and snow showers in the mountains.

2. Multiple systems will bring wintry precipitation and slippery travel through the extended weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key Message 1 Description...

Today should be a mainly fair weather day with warming temperatures as winds increase from the southwest. Highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s should be the norm at lower elevations today while the mountains remain the the 30s but still above normal.

A weak warm front will approach late today and this evening. Clouds will increase as a result with some light precipitation following, lasting from around midnight and ending prior to daybreak. We expected snow showers with this activity inland and rain showers near the coast. Some slippery spots possible for Wed AM commute possible inland.

Cloudy Wednesday but continued on the warm side, relatively speaking with highs upper 30s to potentially some mid 40s. Forcing for ascent looks to be weak on Wed so just some light on and off showers are foreseen.

Key Message 2 Description... Persistent mid-level troughing over the eastern US will allow for an active pattern over MLK day weekend. The first system arrives Thursday morning as a low develops over the northeast. Rain showers are expected across coastal Maine, and snow will mainly fall across the interior. The storm looks quite disorganized, with precipitation likely to be light in intensity. Snowfall amounts are expected to range from a coating to 2 inches in the interior. Minimal travel impacts are expected.

Another disorganized low arrives on Sunday, and is likely to bring a quick burst of snow to the area. While some model uncertainty exists, lighter snowfall amounts look more likely for Sunday at this time. The active pattern continues with potentially another system arriving by mid-next week.

AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

Expect mainly VFR conditions outside of the mountains through today, while MVFR ceilings remain possible at HIE.

The next wave then approaches Tuesday evening, leading to more IFR to MVFR conditions in snow/rain showers overnight.

MVFR ceilings possible with tempo MVFR visibility in rain showers.

Outlook:

Wednesday night IFR possible in snow showers at LEB and HIE. MVFR restrictions more likely at other terminals in light rain early but could lower to IFR if rain transitions to snow.

Thurs night and Friday: More widespread wintry precipitation (mostly snow) and IFR flight restrictions possible.

Saturday and Sunday: Mostly VFR except MVFR ceilings and snow showers possible at HIE.

Monday: VFR expected.

MARINE

Today-Wednesday...SCA conditions should continue through 12z before diminishing. They return on tonight as low pressure crosses through the Gulf of Maine. SCA conditions likely continue into the first part of Wednesday with low pressure passing well north of the waters and a frontal boundary approaching from the west.

Wednesday Night-Monday...Southerly winds of 10-20kts and 2-4ft seas expected Wednesday night. By Thursday night, winds shift to westerlies, strengthen to SCA levels and seas increase to 3-6ft. These conditions more or less remain through the remainder of MLK day weekend.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154.