textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front brings increasing chances for rain showers later today into tonight and then cooler and breezy conditions for Saturday.

2. Turning warmer next week with occasional chances for showers.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Warm and somewhat breezy conditions prevail this afternoon with clouds further increasing into this evening as a cold front approaches. Already seeing some light rain or sprinkles closer to the Canadian border, and northern areas will see more in the way of rain showers later this afternoon and early evening before these expand to the south and east the rest of this evening and tonight. Amounts of a tenth to a quarter of an inch of rain are expected in an around the mountains with chances and amounts decreasing farther south as the front will be on a weakening trend. It's possible southern areas may only see a couple of hundredths. Showers taper off overnight and toward sunrise (except in the mountains) with northwest winds picking up behind the front, potentially gusting up to 30 mph, per forecast soundings.

Saturday will be a mostly dry, cooler, and breezy day behind the front. Based on forecast soundings, northwest winds will likely continue to gust 25 to 30 mph most of the day, possibly up to 35 mph at times. The CAA will limit temperatures to the upper 40s to mid 50s for much of the area, except cooler in the mountains as upsloping will keep things cloudier with possibly a few rain and snow showers through the afternoon. So while the vast majority of the area will be cooler than today, the Midcoast is actually expected to be warmer as the opposing northwest winds will likely be strong enough to hold off the seabreeze.

Winds diminish during the evening and overnight as high pressure continues to build in from the west. A seasonably cool night is expected with lows being mostly in the 20s to low 30s.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... High pressure drifts southeast across New England Sunday morning providing mostly fair weather and warming temperatures inland. Onshore winds will limit coastal highs to around 50F while inland locations will warm into the mid to upper 50s. Low pressure tracking across SE Canada will lift a warm front towards the area late Sunday with increasing clouds SW to NE. The warm front will bring periods of rain showers Sunday night into Monday morning. Southwest flow will advect warmer air into the area with highs on Monday climbing into the 60s. Chances for rain briefly diminish south of the mountains before a cold front sinks into the area Monday afternoon. Rainfall amounts from this system will be light with QPF ranging from 0.1" across southern NH to around 0.5 inches in the mountains.

Tuesday is looking mostly dry and warm as northern New England will be between one system exiting to the east and the next system approaching from the Great Lakes. Highs on Tuesday will be in the 60s across much of the area with low to mid 70s across interior SW Maine and southern New Hampshire. The next frontal system will cross Tuesday night through Wednesday bringing chances for rain while temperatures look to remain above normal through the end of next week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through 18Z Saturday...VFR this afternoon. A cold front then brings a round of rain showers through the region from early this evening and tonight. Potential to see MVFR to IFR restrictions is highest at HIE with more in the way of MVFR possible at LEB, RKD, and AUG. Showers taper off from generally from northwest to southeast overnight behind the front with north to northwest winds also increasing after 06Z with gusts to around 25-30 kt possible. Those that see restrictions will likely return to VFR prior to 12Z Saturday, except possible MVFR at HIE through 18Z. NW winds continue to gust 25 kt during the day Saturday, possibly up to 30 kt.

Outlook:

Rest of Saturday: VFR with gusts of 25-30 kt possible.

Saturday night: VFR with diminishing winds.

Sunday: Mainly VFR.

Sunday night and Monday: MVFR to locally IFR in lowering cigs and showers. Some periods of VFR possible, especially south of the mountains Monday.

Monday night and Tuesday: Conditions improve to VFR, although lingering clouds and showers may bring MVFR to KHIE.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: Chances for showers return with potential for at least periods of MVFR.

MARINE

SCA conditions are expected this afternoon through tonight as south to southwest increases ahead of a cold front that will cross through the waters overnight into early Saturday morning. Behind the front, winds turn west to northwesterly and may continue to gusts to or in excess of 25 kt through the day Saturday. Conditions fall below SCA criteria Saturday evening and night as winds and seas subside with high pressure building more overhead.

Winds and seas likely remain below SCA thresholds Sunday. S to SW winds increase Sunday night and Monday as low pressure passes north of the waters with SCAs likely needed through Monday night. Winds turn offshore Monday night before turning southerly Tuesday and Wednesday as the next system passes north of New England.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154.