textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant forecast changes with this forecast package.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Scattered showers persist today with mild temperatures. No significant weather impacts expected.

2. Above normal temperatures likely through the second half of the week with intermittent showers forecast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Stratiform rain will continue to end from south to north this morning as the surface warm front lifts northward. After a possible brief lull in the rain, additional scattered showers are likely this afternoon as a surface cold front approaches from the north along with a s/wv trof. Additional rainfall amounts of up to around 0.50" is possible across the mtns and northern NH with generally less than 0.25" elsewhere. South- southwesterly winds will gusts up to around 25-30 mph at times. High temperatures will be mild with widespread 60s, a few spots in southern NH may approach the 70 degree mark.

Tonight will be quite mild as the aforementioned cold front stalls and fizzles out. Overnight lows will mostly be into the 50s. A few showers may persist across the mtns but it should otherwise be mainly dry.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Mid-level ridging over the eastern US looks to continue through the remainder of the upcoming week, allowing for above average temperatures to continue through the rest of the week. Many places are bound to see temperatures in the 70s most of the week, with maybe even some 80F readings poking out across southern New Hampshire on Wednesday.

Along with the mid-level ridging, a stationary boundary looks to setup across northern New England on Wednesday. This boundary will allow for the development of showers and potentially a thunderstorm Wednesday afternoon. The front appears to weaken a little on Thursday with cloudy skies forecast during the day but little in the way of rain nor rainfall amounts. Thursday night, the aforementioned low moves eastward, bringing more numerous showers and storms to the region. Rain looks to wrap up by daybreak Friday, allowing for a more pleasant start to next weekend. More unsettled weather is possible next Sunday into Monday.

AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

Through 12Z Tuesday...Steady rain continues to slowly lift northeast and out of the forecast area. VFR conditions already working into parts of NH, with lingering areas of IFR CIGs near the coast of western Maine into the lower Kennebec Valley. These CIGs will lift this morning as rain moves out, but MVFR conditions may be stubborn to scatter out from AUG to RKD. Depending on how many breaks in the cloud cover there is in the warm sector, southwest wind gusts up to 30 kt are possible this afternoon. Then cold front crosses the area this evening. Showers will be possible along the front with local MVFR or lower conditions. Confidence is too low to include mention of these in any TAF at this time.

Outlook:

Tuesday night: MVFR expected due to rain, embedded thunder possible, especially across NH sites.

Wednesday-Friday: MVFR likely to continue due to showers.

MARINE

SW wind gusts up to around 30 kts with seas of 6-9 ft will persist through today. Winds will decrease tonight but seas will remain elevated at SCA levels outside of the bays through tonight.

Winds and seas generally stay below SCA thresholds Tuesday through Thursday with winds primarily out of the south.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ150-152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ151- 153.