textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

We are not meeting criteria over the outer waters for gales so went ahead and cancelled the Gale Warning early. Otherwise, no major changes needed for this update.

KEY MESSAGES

A coastal storm will continue to bring a threat of accumulating snow through morning, mainly in the mountains of the Upper Valley into the Monadnocks.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

Low pressure continues to evolve off the southern New England coast. Forcing has struggled to consolidate so far, as convective influences have really dominated. Gradually the expectation is that a broad band of precip will set up over the far southern zones of the forecast area. Because precip has been so light, temps have not fallen much below the upper 30s. So snow has been hard to come by except for at the highest elevations. As the precip shield fills in thru sunrise I do anticipate that some light snow will occur over the higher terrain of the Upper Valley into the Monadnocks. Ultimately this is looking more like a couple of inches for peaks like the Monadnocks and Sunapee. The biggest change in guidance over the last 24 hours has been to rapidly turn off precip during the first half of today. Much of the area north of LEB to PWM look to be dry thru the entire system. A dry, northerly breeze will help to clear things out today but it will remain chilly.

Cool and dry continues thru the weekend as high pressure builds back in. Daytime temps will likely be a couple degrees below normal, but overnight ideal radiational cooling conditions will see readings well below normal. Heading towards midweek temps will begin to moderate and above normal temps may return to the region.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through 12Z Saturday: Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions will continue across southern NH through about midday with mainly light rain, but can't rule out snow mixing in, mainly LEB and CON. Then gradual improvement is expected with VFR conditions becoming widespread this afternoon and evening. Some MVFR CIGs may develop as winds turn more northwesterly in the vicinity of HIE tonight.

Outlook...

Saturday-Sunday: VFR conditions expected, except HIE where MVFR CIGs and snow showers remain possible. Moderate confidence.

Monday-Wednesday: VFR conditions expected. Moderate confidence.

MARINE

Breezy northerly winds will lead to continued SCA conditions over the coastal waters and bays through at least this afternoon. Winds will diminish this evening but seas may take until Sat before falling below 5 ft. Then the next potential SCA conditions arrive Mon with the passage of a weak cold front and northwesterly winds becoming breezy in its wake.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ150>154.