textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Little change to the going forecast with regard to the upcoming inclement weather today and today. Winter weather advisories remain in place across the north with no changes as latest guidance sources haven't changed an awful much since yesterday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Low pressure brings a wintry mix and slick travel from the foothills of western ME northward today into portions of tonight. A brief period of wintry mix can't ruled farther south toward Augusta and Lewiston and west into northern NH. River flooding looks to remain relatively minor with QPF not looking overly robust. Winds westerly winds may gust 20 to 40 MPH in the wake of the cold front on Thursday.

2. Unsettled and generally cooler conditions continue through the end of the week and the weekend. A stronger system then looks increasingly likely early next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... Little change to the going forecast this early Wednesday morning with little change in the various guidance sources. Cold air damming will be the main theme today making it a lot colder than it was yesterday. This low level cold working in tandem with warm air aloft will allow for on and off wintry precipitation to occur in the mountains and foothills today, with up to a quarter inch of ice possible in the current advisory area. A few higher elevation locations in and around Jackman may get a little more. Roads are still cold in the north some some slippery spots are expected. There may also be some downed tree limbs in spots but power outages should not be widespread.

South of the winter weather advisory area, periods of rain showers are expected with highs in the 30s and 40s. Down near the MA/NH border temperatures may creep into the 50s.

Flood risk still seems to be low based on the relatively low amount of QPF expected. However, ice jams remain possible and some rivers may make it into action stage.

Next, winds will be quite strong in the wake of the cold front on Thursday. Forecast soundings indicate the potential for westerly wind gusts of 30 to 40 MPH...not quite advisory criteria but we will continue to monitor.

Lastly, given the shallow nature of the low level cold air mass, thunder is not out of the question (especially southern zones) Wednesday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Seasonably cool air returns Thursday night behind the passing front, with lows dropping back into the teens and 20s for the first time in several nights for many areas. Seasonable highs ranging from the mid 30s across the north to mid 40s south of the mountains are then expected over the following few days.

A weak low pressure system is expected to move eastward Friday night and Saturday, likely bringing some snow showers across the north, and the chance for rain and snow showers further south. Some light snowfall amounts will be possible across the north, with very little expected toward the coast. This system moves away during the day on Saturday, and high pressure quickly progresses through New England on Saturday.

Attention then towards the next potentially more impactful system on Monday. It looks increasingly like a rain maker as low pressure looks poised to cut through the Great Lakes. With recent snow melt, we'll have to keep an eye on the rivers for any flooding potential early next week. At this point, there are no signs toward a cooler solution for this system, but we'll continue to monitor it.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through Thursday afternoon...Increasing moisture will cause conditions to deteriorate this morning with MVFR to IFR with fog and low stratus.

IFR to LIFR is then likely later this afternoon and night in precipitation, fog, and low cigs.

Cold frontal passage bring conditions back to VFR Thursday morning, but westerly wind gusts 25 to 35 kt during the day.

Outlook:

Thursday night: Mainly VFR expected.

Friday: VFR, but chances for restrictions/precipitation increase late in the day across northern and western terminals.

Friday night: IFR possible with light snow, especially north and west.

Saturday - Saturday night: Most sites return to VFR by the afternoon.

Sunday: Possible restrictions later in the day as another system approaches the region.

Sunday night - Monday: IFR likely with rain and gusty southeast winds.

MARINE

Through Thursday...SCA conditions return today and tonight. A period of gales will be possible late tonight into Thursday in association with a cold frontal passage. Any westerly gales ease Thursday night.

Southerly gales are then possible ahead of an approaching low pressure system late Friday into Saturday. High pressure quickly crosses the waters Saturday night and Sunday. A strong low pressure system is then increasingly likely Sunday night and Monday, with southeasterly gales possible.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...Winter Weather Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 11 PM EDT this evening for MEZ007>009-012>014. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 1 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152. Gale Watch from late tonight through Thursday morning for ANZ150-152. Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon EDT Thursday for ANZ151-153-154.