textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes made to the going forecast at this time as latest guidance seems to be in reasonable agreement with past runs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Below normal temperatures continue through tonight. Sunshine this morning gives way to afternoon clouds and scattered showers.

2. Showery periods expected through the weekend and most of next week occasionally interspersed with shorter periods of fair weather. Temperatures will likely average out below normal through next week.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

With clear skies in place and light winds, radiational cooling will lead to some chilly lows this morning, ranging from the upper 20s and lower 30s north, to the mid 30s to lower 40s south and along coast. Temperatures remain around or below normal for this time of year through the day with highs expected to range from the mid 40s to lower 50s north, to the upper 50s and lower 60s south.

Mean troughing remains in place across the northeast CONUS today. We should see plenty of sunshine through at least the morning hours, but an approaching weak wave will rotate through the flow in the afternoon, leading to some scattered showers. A few snow showers are even possible over some of the mountains, mainly over 3000 feet. Precipitation will diminish in the evening. It will also be breezy this afternoon with winds out of the west around 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

Lows tonight will once again be chilly, ranging from the lower 30s north, to the mid to upper 30s elsewhere. A few upper 30s or lower 40s will be possible along the coast.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Saturday will feature an approaching warm front with showery weather, especially late morning through the afternoon hours. The rain will be mainly light but just enough combined with cool temperatures to make it not a great day.

A cold front moves through on Sunday with a few showers possible and possibly an isolated thunderstorm. High temperatures will likely be the warmest of the extended period of the forecast with highs in the 60s with perhaps some lower 70s far south.

Monday through Thursday will feature continued troughing across the northeast which will result in cooler than normal temperatures and periods of showers. Not looking at any heavy rain at this time as we should remain cut off from any sort of tropical moisture stream. At this time, Wednesday looks like it could be the driest day of the stretch. Monday could also be mainly dry (especially the afternoon) depending on how far north the next low pressure system gets.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

Through tonight: Mainly VFR through the period. Light winds and mostly clear skies this morning will give way to breezy westerly winds this afternoon and increasing clouds. Surface gusts up to 20 or 25 mph are possible. Broken CIGs are also possible, but generally expect them to remain VFR. Scattered showers will develop by midday and local MVFR or lower conditions are possible in the heaviest showers. Still confidence remains low enough that I have not included mention in the TAFs. A return to widespread VFR is expected tonight, though any location that sees rainfall may also end up with some radiation fog overnight.

Outlook...

Saturday-Saturday night: Clouds thicken as showers spread northeastward through the day. MVFR conditions likely expand through the afternoon hours, with IFR possible along the coast. At least MVFR conditions likely linger at most terminal Saturday night.

Sunday: Improvement to VFR is likely through the morning, and then scattered showers are possible in the afternoon and evening.

Sunday Night-Monday: MVFR is possible along the coast with periods of light rain, while VFR conditions are more likely inland. The afternoon could turn VFR most locations.

Tuesday-Wednesday: VFR likely prevails, but brief restrictions with afternoon showers will be possible each day.

MARINE

Winds and seas remain below SCA thresholds through tonight. Offshore winds will shift to out of the SW this morning with gusts to 20 kts this afternoon followed by diminishing winds tonight.

SCA conditions are possible Saturday afternoon into Sunday night. Conditions should then remain mainly below SCA thresholds Monday into Midweek.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.