textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes with this forecast update.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A seasonably cold airmass and gusty winds arrive behind the cold front to start the weekend, with wintry conditions across the higher terrain.

2. Mild and dry conditions look to persist from Sunday through much of next week as high pressure dominates over the Northeast.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

The passing of a cold front this evening will bring a strong pressure gradient over the area. The front will usher in dry and colder air, allowing for mixing to occur overnight and gusty winds can be expected through this evening. Winds could gust between 25 and 35 mph, and could lead to some unsecured objects, like tents, and patio furniture blowing away. These northwest winds will also make today feel chilly, as high temperatures could struggle to even reach 50F away from the immediate coast.

For hikers: Conditions will be dangerous and wintry in the higher terrain. In addition to snow showers, winds will be much higher and and temperatures much colder, making for winds chills in the single digits to possibly below zero above tree line.

High pressure looks to build overhead tonight, which will allow for the winds to calm. Calm winds and clear skies should create radiational cooling conditions. Low temperatures in the 20s are forecast, but some places north of the mountains could see lows in the teens for the first time since last winter.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION...

Starting on Sunday, an upper-level trough exits the northeastern US and is replaced by a broad ridge. In general, upper-level ridging should allow for temperatures to be more mild through much of next week and temperatures do look to run a little above average on Sunday and Monday. However, high pressure to the north especially towards the middle of next week may lead to more seasonable temperatures then. No precipitation is forecast next week.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through tonight...Conditions continue to improve across the area this morning. South of the mountains, conditions are either VFR or will improve to VFR in the next couple of hours. Upslope cloud cover, along with some rain or snow showers, will keep MVFR conditions going north of the mtns into the afternoon. Northwesterly wind gusts today will be around 25 kt for most terminals. These winds will diminish quickly as we approach sunset.

OUTLOOK:

Sunday-Wednesday...High pressure brings an extended period of VFR conditions with no sig wx. Wind will tend to follow typical diurnal patterns.

MARINE

SCA conditions are expected to linger thru this evening before diminishing overnight. Then high pressure is in control starting Sun. However there is still uncertainty regarding track of a low pressure expected to develop off of the coast of the Carolinas next week. There is potential for this to push a 5 to 7 ft swell into the Gulf of Maine for the first half of the week, but if high pressure remains dominant and this low remains suppressed conditions would likely be calmer. Late week is also uncertain as additional low pressure may form east of the Gulf of Maine.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT Saturday night for ANZ150>154.