textproduct: Gray - Portland

SYNOPSIS

Mainly quiet and seasonable weather into early next week outside a couple of passing disturbances tonight and Sunday night. High pressure moves offshore early next week allowing for a warming trend into the middle of next week. Chances for precipitation will increase late Tuesday into Wednesday with mainly rain south of the mountains. A cold front then crosses Thursday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/

Yet another short wave trough will approach from the west today but it will be moisture-starved. The result will be mostly cloudy skies across much of the forecast area with scattered mountain snow showers. Otherwise, temperatures should rise well into the 40s at lower elevations with an outside chance at 50 degrees on the Seacoast of NH. Gusty NW winds up to 20 MPH or so are expected during the afternoon hours.

A weak southern stream short wave through will also be passing by to our south but dry enough air should be in place here to preclude any sort of measurable precipitation across southern NH other than a few sprinkles.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/

Snow showers will end early this evening with the loss of moisture and added instability in the wake of a short wave trough. While clouds stick around through the mountains, the coast and interior should remain mostly clear. As winds fall off, conditions should be favorable for a return to cold nights. Lows in the lower 20s will be likely for much of the forecast area, colder in good radiational cooling locations.

Another short wave trough will approach from the west on Sunday bringing cloudy skies. Enough moisture and forcing for ascent should be present to allow for snow showers in the mountains. Drier air will reside downwind of the mountains but it's not out of the question that a brief period of snow showers will affect lower elevations as well.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/

Overview: A moisture starved s/wv trof will cross Sunday night, bringing a few rain and snow showers mainly to the mountains. Dry weather is then expected Monday into Tuesday as sfc high pressure moves across the region before exiting to our east by Tuesday evening. Precipitation chances then look to increase Tuesday night into Wednesday as a broad trof arrives from the west. A cold front may then cross on Thursday with cooler and drier conditions returning.

Impacts: Depending on temperature profiles, a wintry mix of precipitation is possible Tuesday night into Wednesday morning across portions of the interior.

Forecast Details: An H5 s/wv trof will cross New England on Sunday night, bringing scattered rain and snow showers, mainly across the mountains. Low temperatures will mostly be into the 20s. High pressure will then build over the region on Monday, allowing for dry conditions with partly cloudy skies and highs into the 40s south of the mountains and 30s across the north. Clouds will begin to increase from west to east Monday night with lows mostly into the 20s once again.

Tuesday looks to feature mostly cloudy skies as high pressure exits to our east ahead of a trof axis that will be approaching from the west. Much of the daytime should remain dry though with highs mostly into the 40s. Precipitation chances will then increase Tuesday evening through Wednesday as a broad trof arrives from the west. Depending on temperature profiles, this could start as a wintry mix across some interior locations and perhaps lead to slippery travel conditions. Warmer air will move in areawide later Wednesday with a transition to all rain. Cooler and drier conditions will then return late week behind a cold front.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Short Term...Winds shift WNW today with gusts 15-20 kt. Terminals near the Whites and western ME mountains will see isolated SHSN through this afternoon which could cause intermittent vis reduction and locally stronger gusts. Winds subside tonight with lowered ceilings continuing for terminals NW of the mountains. Periods of MVFR cigs possible on Sunday as a weak low pressure system moves across the region with a few snow showers and occasionally lower cigs.

Long Term...Mainly VFR conditions are likely Sunday night through Tuesday with N-NW winds generally less than 20 kts. Some restrictions are then possible Tuesday night into Wednesday as light RA arrives along with lower ceilings. Winds will gradually become SW but remain at or below 20 kts.

MARINE

Short Term...NW wind gusts may briefly reach 25 knots for a time late this afternoon and early this evening but then quickly diminish. Otherwise, conditions will remain below SCA levels for the balance of tonight and on Sunday.

Long Term...Winds and seas should remain below SCA thresholds through at least Wednesday with winds mostly out of the W-NW.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...None.