textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Limited thunder chances to just through early evening. Otherwise, periods of showers will continue through the night before additional moisture moves into the region for Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Thunderstorm threat has ended for today, with periods of showers overnight.

2. Widespread soaking rainfall Wednesday into Wednesday night as a cold front slowly moves through from west to east.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION... With the loss of peak heating and an overall marginal display of CAPE or deeper instability, thunderstorm potential has ended for the day.

It will remain breezy tonight, but not nearly as gusty as this afternoon. Will monitor the chance for fog development near the Midcoast through tonight.

Periods of rain pass through the area overnight, with more organization and steady rainfall expected Wednesday.

KEY MESSAGE 2 DESCRIPTION... A heavier, steady rain moves in from west to east Wednesday and Wednesday evening. While we can't rule out a couple embedded non-severe storms, for the most part it looks like a steady, wetting rain. Rain totals by the time it tapers off late Wednesday night should be generally 1-1.5 inches in northern portions of the area, with as little as 0.3 to 0.6 near the coast and into southern New Hampshire. Flooding is not expected other than very minor issues over poor draining areas.

A fairly cool and unsettled weather pattern persists into the weekend, though timing of any additional weather systems this weekend is still pretty uncertain.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

Through 00z Thursday...Weak LLWS possible this evening as surface winds slacken but 20-35 kt jet remains 1-2kft. This falls below criteria for TAFs. Will see SHRA decrease in coverage with VFR areawide through midnight. After, MVFR cigs begin towards HIE and expand into the morning hours toward LEB and AUG. May also see IFR cigs move into the Midcoast for RKD and IWI, uncertain if vis will be impacted here.

Shower coverage increases west to east Wednesday. Expect MVFR to expand towards coastal ME and southern NH by Wed afternoon. Can't rule out some CB/TS early afternoon from a AUG to LEW to CON corridor, but confidence in positioning and timing is low. Will see some pockets of IFR in the mountains and Midcoast (as far south as PWM), but less continuous in between, favoring MVFR. Ceiling restrictions then look to improve late evening as a cold front slides off the coast.

Outlook:

Wednesday Night... Improving from W to E with most areas becoming VFR. Winds becoming W/NW 5-10 kts.

Thursday to Saturday... Mainly VFR with a chance of MVFR cigs towards the mountains Thursday night. Generally W winds, 5-15 kts.

MARINE

SCA conditions persisting into Wed night, with gales likely tonight for outer waters. From Thu on, winds/seas generally less than SCA levels as a cold front pushes off the coast Wed evening.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Thursday for ANZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ151-153. Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ180-182.