textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Very little change to the going forecast this Thursday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across northern New England through the weekend while Subtropical Storm Josephine passes offshore. Northerly gusts of 25 to 35 MPH possible later today into Friday.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

High pressure will remain over southern Quebec today into Thursday night as a dry cold front crosses from the north and Josephine passes well offshore. Partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail with highs into the lower 60s south of the mtns with 50s across the north. The increasing pressure gradient force from distant Subtropical Storm Josephine and high centered to our NW will allow for increasing winds throughout the day with N gusts up to 25-35 mph likely from this afternoon through the first half of Friday.

Josephine will continue to move northeast, well out to sea. With persistent northerly flow aloft, expect a chilly and blustery day on Friday with highs mainly in the mid 40s to mid 50s. The gusty winds will make it feel even colder.

As winds diminish Friday night, a mostly clear sky should prove optimal for radiational cooling and very cold temperatures. The latest NBM is advertising lows in the 20s across the entire forecast area and this may end up being on the warm side depending on the presence of high clouds.

High pressure then dominates the weather pattern through the weekend as an upper level ridge nudges into the region. This will lead to a gradual warmup through the weekend and into next week. Highs on Saturday should mainly be back in the 50s with some 60s returning Sunday and Monday. A cold front will sweep through on Monday which will lead to cooler temperatures into midweek. As of now, this cold front looks to be dry but we could end up seeing some low precipitation chances as we move closer in time.

AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

Through 06z Friday: Patchy fog is possible in the river valleys early this morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail with N winds of 10-15 kts. Gusts will increase this afternoon through the first half of Friday with gusts 20-30 kts. Gusts may continue for terminals in southern ME (PWM, AUG, RKD) into the overnight hours.

Outlook...

Friday-Monday...VFR prevails under high pressure. This should lead to light diurnal wind patterns.

MARINE

High pressure remains in control of the weather pattern across New England, while Subtropical Storm Josephine tracks well outside the Gulf of Maine and through the Grand Banks through Friday. SCA winds in northeasterly flow last through at least Friday, while waves likely persist into the weekend. Northerly Gales are expected outside of the bays later today into Friday as the low deepens east of the waters. Seas then gradually subside through the weekend as high pressure remains in control.