textproduct: Gray - Portland

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Minor update to the Aviation section for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. High pressure continues to dominate the weather through next week. Expect mainly dry conditions and no significant weather impacts.

DISCUSSION

KEY MESSAGE 1 DESCRIPTION...

It is quite warm across the forecast area at this hour, but it is a pretty classic cold advection pattern for weather overnight. Upslope rain showers (and snow at elevation), plenty of stratocumulus, and gusty west northwest winds are expected into early Sat. One minor adjustment was to blend in MOS/raw 2 m temps as the NBM is bias correcting towards radiational cooling too much after such a prolonged stretch of high pressure.

Sat will begin gusty but gradually see those winds diminish during the day. It will be much colder however, with highs a good 10 to 15 degrees below today. But heading into the evening temps will be falling from the 40s into the 30s.

Mainly dry conditions are likely to persist thru at least the middle of next week with fluctuating temps, although on the whole it should average warmer than normal. The next chance for any meaningful rainfall looks like it may arrive late in the week, but NWP continues to highlight a very low confidence scenario as it keeps pushing rain back and/or shifting the storm track around.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

Through Saturday: VFR expected tonight through Saturday. West northwest to northwest wind gusts between 20 to 25 kt are likely through at least midnight. A steady wind is expected overnight and the increase in mixing early Saturday will allow for some additional wind gusts around 20 kt during the first half of the day. Gusts diminish Saturday afternoon with light and variable winds Saturday evening.

Outlook:

Sunday-Wednesday: VFR conditions expected.

MARINE

West northwest to northwest wind gusts will continue to increase thru this evening. SCA conditions are expected for all waters, and a few near gale force gusts are likely for the outer waters. These gusty winds continue into the first part of Sat before diminishing in the afternoon. Otherwise, winds and seas will remain below SCA criteria thru the middle of next week.

GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

ME...None. NH...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Saturday for ANZ150-152- 154. Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 8 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ151-153.