textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cold air mass lingers over the region through tonight, keeping well below normal temperatures around. Lows tonight will drop near to below freezing, impacting sensitive vegetation that has already started blooming from the recent abnormally warm weather. 2. Warming trend still on track starting Thursday into the weekend. A cold front could bring showers on Monday and cooler temps on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Cold air mass lingers over the region through tonight, keeping well below normal temperatures around. Lows tonight will drop near to below freezing, impacting sensitive vegetation that has already started blooming from the recent abnormally warm weather.

Broad upper troughiness will remain over the eastern CONUS tonight and Thursday as an intense anticyclone continues to meander over the Desert Southwest. An elongated surface high stretching from Nova Scotia to the Southeast will help support cool and dry conditions into tonight. Temperatures will have a chance to fall at or below freezing across most of the CWFA, but could come a few ticks shy of that reading due to in and out cloud cover thanks to multiple shortwaves traversing within the trough and interrupting good radiational cooling conditions at times. The potential for precip anywhere will likely be virga at best as the dry antecedent airmass holds strong. Flow turns out of the southwest on Thursday as the high becomes disconnected from the CWFA. As a result, temperatures rebound into the 60s (50s in the higher elevations) for afternoon highs with periods of cloud cover.

Key message 2: Warming trend still on track starting Thursday into the weekend. A cold front could bring showers on Monday and cooler temps on Tuesday.

The main key message for the short to long term is the steadily rising heights through late week into the weekend, leading to a significant warming trend. High temperatures near normal on Thursday will rise into the 80s by Sunday, around 20 degrees above normal.

A cold front should push through the region early next week with cool high pressure building in for Tuesday. High temperatures by Tuesday should be back to a few degrees below normal. A few showers will be possible on Monday, but most amounts should be light.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Light and variable winds overnight will pick up slightly out of the SW around 15-16z, but should remain light. At KAVL, the winds will pick up out of the NW. An area of mid clouds will exit east of the area this evening, leaving mostly clear skies overnight, then another around of mid and high clouds stream in from the NW Thursday morning with SCT to BKN at times thru the day.

Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR through the rest of the week. A backdoor cold front may bring some moisture to the area late Sunday into Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.