textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rainfall totals have slightly increased for Saturday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Very warm conditions with low-to-critical afternoon relative humidity is expected again Friday, keeping the fire danger elevated. Any fire that develops has the potential to spread quickly. No outdoor burning! 2. Pattern change this weekend and into early next week, with rain chances increasing.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Very warm conditions with low-to-critical afternoon relative humidity is expected again Friday, keeping the fire danger elevated. Any fire that develops has the potential to spread quickly. No outdoor burning!

An upper ridge will linger over the area for one more day, but will weaken, as pieces of shortwave energy eject out of the persistent longwave trough over the Rockies and ride over the ridge axis. Sfc high pressure will begin to slide further off the Southeast coast, while a cold front pushes into the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Low-level flow will increase slightly out of the SW, but with limited increase in moisture. Overall, Friday's temps will be similar to today, but with slightly higher RH (widespread 25-35% values during peak heating). This may be enough for the need for another Fire Danger Statement for NE GA, which only needs 4 hours of <30% RH. Winds will be slightly higher, but only a few low-end gusts of 14-18 mph expected. Current Fire Danger Statement for NE GA expires at 8 pm this evening. The 12z CAMs are teasing us with a few shallow showers popping during peak heating tomorrow, mainly in the mountains. But forecast soundings show plenty of dry air and a lingering mid-level cap. So only spotty slight chc PoPs in the mountains will be in the forecast.

Key message 2: Pattern change this weekend and into early next week, with rain chances increasing.

Remnants of a cold front push towards the area by the weekend, increasing the possibility for rain. High pressure at the surface starts to slide eastward, allowing for moisture to continue to tick upward. By Saturday, model guidance has a few showers moving through the CWA with the weakening front. However, QPF response has trended slightly higher since the previous forecast. Current guidance suggests a 30-40% of rainfall totals greater than 0.5", with the higher chances in the far western NC mountains. Given the current pattern, it looks to be more likely that locations east of the mountains receive anywhere from 0.01"to 0.3". Either way, rain totals will not be anywhere close to putting a dent in the ongoing drought. Behind the weakened front, a brief stint of drier air for Sunday before moisture returns and rain chances increase again for the start of the week. A second front is possible on Tuesday, which could increase rain chances again and kickoff a more unsettled pattern.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: With a dry air mass remaining in place... VFR/SKC conditions are forecast through this TAF period. The caveat is that brief periods of 3-6SM visby can't be ruled out due to HZ or smoke originating from wildfires over south GA/northern FL, but timing of this...or even if it will occur at all...is highly uncertain. Otherwise, SW at 5-8 kts this afternoon, becoming light again this evening, then resuming out of the SW again around midday Friday.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected to persist thru Friday as broad surface high pressure lingers over the region. A frontal system will likely bring showers and some associated restrictions on Saturday. Generally dry and VFR expected Sunday thru Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.