textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

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WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

High pressure is the story of the week as the southeast returns to much drier conditions again. A ridge shifts eastward over the region today and remains in place until the general flow aloft breaks down by Saturday. This means a quiet period of no rain and storms through at least the beginning of the weekend. Guidance also has drier air lingering over the next few days before moisture starts to return Saturday. As for temperatures, upper 70s for the majority of the area today before a warming trend ensues through at least Monday. Looking ahead, long range guidance starts to pick up on a signal for showers and thunderstorms returning Sunday. As the high pressure departs, height falls and more southerly surface winds aid in moisture return. At this time, it looks to be more of the typical summertime, diurnally driven pattern with showers and thunderstorms popping up each afternoon and evening. Tis' the season.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue through the 00z TAF period. Other than a few fair-wx cumulus tomorrow aftn/evening, skies should remain mostly clear. KAVL has some potential to see brief fog Thursday morning, but the latest guidance appears to be less bullish than earlier. If dew points don't rebound by at least a few degrees overnight, they will likely remain too dry for any fog. Nonetheless, I kept a TEMPO at KAVL for 5sm and sct003 from 10 to 13z.

Otherwise, winds are expected to go light and VRB to calm tonight and remain that way through the morning. They are expected to remain light and VRB for the rest of the period at the Upstate terminals, while they could favor a N/NE di- rection at KCLT tomorrow aftn. At KAVL, winds should favor a light, NLY direction tomorrow aftn, then toggle around to SELY by late afternoon.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue into the weekend, with some potential for morning mtn valley fog/low clouds each day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.

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