textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures are trending warmer for later next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. NW snowfall continues into Saturday morning across the higher elevations along the Tennessee border. 2. Colder temperatures and drier conditions behind a strong cold front linger through midweek. Warming trend returns toward the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: NW snowfall continues into Saturday morning across the higher elevations along the Tennessee border.

A cold front is now east of the fcst area with broad Canadian high pressure gradually spreading colder air across the western Carolinas. The NW flow and lingering low-level moisture along the NC/TN border keeps snow chances in the forecast through tonight. Aloft, the trough continues to churn with a second wave coming through this afternoon through early Saturday morning. This second wave should be the last bit for NW flow snow and bring the higher amounts forecasted to the Smokies. While a few locations outside the Smokies could see snow accumulations, the higher elevations of the Smokies (above 4500 ft) could see an additional 2"-4" with this wave. Outside the Smokies, most locations along the NC/TN border are expected to get less than 1" of additional snowfall. Once the trough lifts out and the drier air truly filters in, any lingering moisture should be wiped away, ending the snowfall Saturday morning.

Key message 2: Colder temperatures and drier conditions behind a strong cold front linger through midweek. Warming trend returns toward the end of next week.

Lingering cold temperatures remain in the wake of a strong front. High pressure continues to expand and park over the CWA through most of the forecast period. Drier air remains in place and temperatures look to be the coldest of the season tonight and Saturday night. Current guidance remains on track for freezing temps for most of the area tonight, becoming more widespread for Saturday night. Again, no freeze products will be issued as the growing season was declared over on November 11. As the air mass slowly modifies, height rises aloft shift temperatures toward a warming trend through the week and into next weekend.

Additionally, wind gusts associated with the trough linger over the mountain tops through Sunday before diminishing. Once the trough lifts out of the area, winds should remain light for the rest of the week.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and mostly VFR through the 18Z TAF period. The exception will be KAVL as the terminal will have the potential to see cigs drop down to MVFR levels briefly around daybreak but confidence is too low to mention in the TAF at this time. Otherwise, gusty NW winds and BKN to OVC VFR cloud cover will linger at KAVL through the period. East of the mountains, SCT to BKN VFR cloud cover will linger through early this evening before gradually clearing out late this evening. Wind direction will be mainly NW/NNW east of the mountains through the period. Low-end, intermittent gusts remain possible through early this evening east of the mountains. Lighter wind speeds return overnight east of the mountains but wind speeds will gradually increase throughout Saturday, with the potential for low-end gusts by Saturday afternoon.

Outlook: Lingering snow showers through Saturday mid-morning along the Tennessee border, but no impacts expected at AVL other than the aforementioned possibility of a ceiling restriction. VFR returns Sunday onward.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.