textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion with the 00z TAF issuance.

Updated PoP trends based on current radar and latest CAM guidance. More clouds expected overnight into Sunday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly move south of the area or dissipate through the evening. Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday before rain chances increase Monday. 2. Drier and cooler than normal weather after Tuesday with slight rain chances possible toward the end of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms slowly move south of the area or dissipate through the evening. Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday before rain chances increase Monday.

A backdoor cold front continues moving south through the area tonight and to our south on Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will move south of the area with the front or dissipate through the evening.

As the front continues to move through tonight, overall drier and cooler air arrives for Sunday. That said, low level moisture lingers across the Upstate and NE GA. Developing isentropic lift will lead to low clouds developing overnight and continuing into Sunday. Model guidance has the boundary stalling over the far southern locations of the CWA, making way for a slight chance (15-35%)of precipitation. Cannot rule out a brief shower Sunday, but confidence is low. By Monday, rain chances increase again as the airmass modifies. Expect temperatures to remain somewhat cooler than normal.

Key message 2: Drier and cooler than normal weather after Tuesday with slight rain chances possible toward the end of next week.

Once increased rain chances dissipate Monday night, the general pattern looks to keep the area in a drier pattern for the majority of next week and into the start of the weekend. High pressure returns from the north and spreads southward, shunting the majority of rain chances once again. Long range models suggest a spin up of a coastal low off the Carolinas toward mid week. At this time, the high pressure looks to dominate and it would not have any impact to this area. This will be monitored, mainly for rain concerns east of the mountains. Should high pressure weaken, it could allow for this area to shift westward into the eastern fringe of the CWA and increase rain chances. If high pressure remains steady, it would shunt rain chances. But either way, not looking at anything impactful at this time. Expect temperatures to remain cooler and slightly below normal.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will move south of the area/dissipate through the evening as a cold front crosses the area from the north. Winds turn NE, N at KAVL, through the night with gusts developing. MVFR clouds develop across the SC sites overnight as low level moisture and isentropic lift move in. Should remain VFR at the NC sites, but there will be more in the way of clouds then previously expected. MVFR cigs continue through the afternoon at the SC sites with lower VFR cigs and the NC sites. NE speeds taper off through the day. Winds turn S at KAVL.

Outlook: Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible Monday. A drier pattern should return for the rest of the workweek.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.