textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions will persist over our region through at least Friday with temperatures warming above normal. Rain chances increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions will persist over our region through at least Friday with temperatures warming above normal. Rain chances increase this weekend.

Dry weather should continue thru the work week as upper ridging remains over the Southeast. At the surface, broad high pressure continues to linger over most of the eastern CONUS as profiles remain dry and temperatures continue their gradual warming trend. Another cP airmass will settle over the Northeast today/tonight, reinforcing the low-level dry air and bringing marginally cooler temperatures for Wed. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to climb back above normal on Thurs and Friday as the high shifts eastward and off the Atlantic Coast.

Another reinforcing/back-door cold front is expected to arrive early Saturday and re-establish some amount of cold-air damming across the western Carolinas. At the same time, multiple embedded upper shortwaves will approach our area from the west along with a broad area of deeper moisture. This pattern should allow for an increase in low-level isentropic ascent across our area and produce some widespread showers, most likely on Sunday. At this time, the majority of the long-range guidance suggests that most of our CWA will receive less than an inch of rain over the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Primarily VFR. Mountain valley fog still may affect KAVL and kept IFR in TEMPO there for the first hour. Some fog over lakes near KCLT, KHKY, KAND but winds unfavorable for directing fog toward those sites. Beyond this morning, should be a quiet period with light mainly N to NE winds except for a period of SE winds at KAVL. Easterly flow may result in low stratus approaching KCLT from the east at or after daybreak Wed, or forming along the terrain northeast of KAVL, but those developments are too unlikely to mention at this range. Cannot however rule out more valley fog tonight.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions through the work week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus possible each morning. Restrictions may return for the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.