textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

Deep layer ridging will be the dominant feature influencing the weather across the Southeast through at least the first half of the weekend. The result will be a continued warming trend. Max temps today will still fall a little shy of climo while surface dewpoints will be in a slow recovery mode...but still anomalously low...so all in all a pleasant day as far as early June goes. Temperatures will warm to normal Friday...remaining near normal...perhaps a little warmer through at least Monday.

Low level moisture will be slow to recover under the influence of surface ridging. However, moisture and attendant afternoon instability may be sufficient to allow for spotty diurnal convection by Sunday...mainly over the mountains. By early in the new work week, the global models generally agree that the ridge will have retrograded to the central Conus, with a trough becoming established along the East Coast. This will increase the probability of a frontal zone interacting with the increasing moisture...enhancing precip chances during the first half of next week. Having said that, the signal for precip from guidance is not especially strong, so PoPs will be mostly in the chance range Monday through Wednesday. Temperatures trend down a bit late in the period in anticipation of increase convection and/or potential fropa.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Low stratus and fog have developed in the valleys west and north of KAVL, but KAVL itself will remain VFR...as will all other TAF sites through this forecast period. In fact, SKC conditions are expected until at least Fri morning. The potential for valley fog/stratus will increase slightly tonight, but confidence is low that it will develop at KAVL. Winds will remain light/variable or calm through much of Fri morning..possibly becoming light SW Fri afternoon.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue into the weekend. The potential for morning mtn valley fog/low clouds will gradually increase each day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.