textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

NBM now showing rain chances returning across the northern North Carolina mountains Friday evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warmer conditions return to end the work-week. Mostly dry outside of the potential for some rain showers across the northern North Carolina mountains Friday night. 2. Very warm this weekend. A cold front could bring showers on Monday and cooler temps on Tuesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Warmer conditions return to end the work-week. Mostly dry outside of the potential for some rain showers across the northern North Carolina mountains Friday night.

Upper troughing remains over the region through Friday morning before pushing off the East Coast Friday afternoon into Friday evening. At the surface, dry high pressure will linger over the region through Friday morning before getting pinched off to the south as a cold front sinks across the Ohio Valley Friday afternoon and evening. There may be enough moisture ahead of the front to allow rain chances to return to the northern North Carolina mountains Friday evening into Friday night. The latest NBM now has slight chance PoPs returning across the northern mountains by Friday evening. Dry conditions are expected to continue elsewhere through the period. Although temperatures will be noticeably warmer this afternoon, highs will end up near to just below normal, with the exception of the mountain valleys where highs should end up near to just above normal. Above normal highs return area-wide Friday, with temperatures climbing into the lower 70s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Warmer low temperatures return starting tonight, with much warmer and well above normal lows expected Friday night. Cirrus will gradually increase through the morning hours before gradually thinning out late this afternoon into tonight. Cirrus will thicken again slightly on Friday.

Key message 2: Very warm this weekend. A cold front could bring showers on Monday and cooler temps on Tuesday.

Steadily rising heights through the weekend will lead to very warm temps. Highs will rise into the 80s by Sunday, around 20 degrees above normal. Lows will be 15 to 20 degrees above normal. The guidance continues to differ from run to run and with each other on the potential for a clipper low on Saturday. For now, the model blend keeps the area dry, which is good given the uncertainty.

A cold front drops across the area on Monday with the models now pushing the front well south of the area for Tuesday. Still have chance PoP in place for Monday, but precip has trended lighter. Temps cool on Monday but remain above normal then drop to near normal for Tuesday.

Another frontal system may approach from the north on Wednesday, but again, guidance differs on any potential precip with the model blend basically dry. Temps rise back to around 5 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR with light wind speeds through the 06Z TAF period. Winds will be calm to light and VRB through mid- morning before picking up out of the SW east of the mountains and NW at KAVL by late morning/early afternoon. Winds go calm to light and VRB again this evening into tonight. Cirrus will gradually increase through the morning hours before gradually thinning out late this afternoon into tonight.

Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR through the rest of the week. A cold front may bring showers and thunderstorms, as well as associated restrictions, to the terminals on Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.