textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this package.

Updated the 06z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Warm and dry conditions, outside of an isolated shower or storm, continue through the weekend. A wetter pattern may return next week.

An upper trough responsible for the overnight frontal passage will lift northeast into New England and then offshore today. At the same time, a sharp upper ridge will slide across the Mississippi Valley and into the Appalachians. Heights will rise in response, especially as a deep upstream trough digs down the West Coast and into the Great Basin. This will bring a warming trend back to the region with highs climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by Saturday. Southeast return flow starts to bring moisture back into the area this weekend and could foster the development of isolated to widely scattered showers and storms. The best chance may end up being along the Savannah River Valley on Sunday within a low-level convergence zone. Either way, coverage appears to be meager and won't contribute much improvement to drought conditions, if at all. By early next week, the first in a series of troughs ejects across the Great Plains and into the Ohio Valley. Associated frontal boundary may make a run at the Southern Appalachians and bring a wetter pattern back into the area, especially should the front stall, but guidance is split as to how far east this may happen and how much precipitation may return.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. A weak cold front should be thru all the TAF sites by around 06z, which will toggle winds NW. Winds remain NW to N through the entire period for all terminals. Wind gusts around 15-20 kt are expected to develop at all but KAND after daybreak this morning, and linger thru the aftn. Gusty winds at KAVL expected to start before sunrise, and peaks gusts expected in the 20-25 kt range for much of the day. Winds should begin to weaken this evening. Otherwise, clear skies and no fog expected thru tonight.

Outlook: VFR and quiet weather is expected thru the weekend and into early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.