textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms through this evening, and again on Friday. 2. Drier and warmer conditions trend for early next week, with hot temperatures and increased humidity by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances continue through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall and a few strong storms through this evening, and again on Friday.

A series of shortwaves glide down a persistent trough sitting over the eastern CONUS through Friday, increasing shower and thunderstorm activity. Though these shortwaves appear to be rather weak, it should provide a smidge of forcing, allowing for a few more storms to grow in this broad warm sector. Ample moisture is once again plaguing the area, ticking up confidence in coverage of showers and thunderstorms today and Friday. Model guidance is spotty, but for what it's worth, CAMs do hint at convection firing up, typical for this area during summer. Main hazard to watch out for is damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall. There could be an isolated location or two that sees a brief stint of flash flooding wherever heavy rains setup. Copy and paste as a similar setup for Friday emerges, but with more widespread coverage. The Storm Prediction Center has carved out a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) for mainly the mountains today and the entire area for Friday. By Saturday, the trough gets shoved offshore by the villainous ridge marching across the central US, eyeing the southeast. These height rises start to shunt convective activity, hedging for a favorable drier-ish period through next week.

Key message 2: Drier and warmer conditions trend for early next week, with hot temperatures and increased humidity by midweek.

As the ridge out west continues to propel the trough offshore, heights begin to rise and leads the way for the return of hot temperatures. As if Monday wasn't bad enough, hot and humid temps appear to creep in, turning a typical start of the week into a slightly less spirited one. Long range guidance signals widespread 90s for locations east of the mountains on Monday and ticking upward each day through the end of the forecast period. Along with repulsive temps, humidity remains rooted, elevating heat indices into the 100s by midweek. Too far out to pinpoint the exact details, but the trend is not our friend as models zoom in on these roasting temps. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. TSRA/SHRA possible now through 02z-03z, so PROB30 at all sites. Overnight, some BR is possible in the mountains again and MVFR/IFR cigs at all sites during the early morning hours. Should SCT by mid Friday morning. Light winds mainly S/SE, becoming calm in overnight. Southerly winds slowly come up Friday. Another round of TSRA Friday afternoon so a PROB30 at KCLT.

Outlook: Less coverage of SHRA/TSRA Saturday through Monday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.