textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Overnight temperatures trending colder for the weekend.

Updated for 18Z aviation discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Remnants of Isaias continues to move northeast, bringing gusty winds with a cold front tonight and drier conditions. 2. Dry weather with a warming trend into the middle of next week. A stronger cold front could cross the area by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Remnants of Isaias continues to move northeast, bringing gusty winds with a cold front tonight and drier conditions.

An upper trough engulfs the remnants of Isaias, moving the system out of the area and ushering in drier conditions for the CWA. Ahead of a cold front moving into the area, a few spotty showers could pop up over the mountains. These should remain benign in nature and not pose any impacts to areas that experienced flooding last night and earlier this morning. Once the frontal boundary moves in tonight, rain chances get snubbed and dry conditions settle in. Along with the cold front, gusty northwest winds of 30-40mph possible across the mountains. Highest gusts look to be along the highest peaks, but remain below any Wind Advisory criteria. Should start seeing the winds diminish into Monday afternoon.

Key message 2: Dry weather with a warming trend into the middle of next week. A stronger cold front could cross the area by the weekend.

A moderate ridge develops over the central CONUS, extending into the southeast by midweek. High pressure at the surface amplifies and parks over the area through at least the end of the next week. This should keep rain chances away for most of the area. A stray shower over the mountains may occur but nothing impactful. With the height rises from the ridge, temperatures trend much warmer and return to above normal by Wednesday.

Long term guidance hints at a more seasonal cold front that could push into the area by the weekend, ushering in much drier air and colder temps. A strong surface high looks to spill out of Canada and expand into the central/eastern CONUS. This has the potential for the coldest temps of the season. Details are too murky at this time, but will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Many terminals start out MVFR this morning with conditions improving to VFR through the afternoon. Gusty SW winds of 15-25kts through 00z. Cold front beings NW winds and gustier winds of 25-35kts at KAVL overnight. Winds turn NW elsewhere with gusts of 15-20kts Monday. Confidence on BR at KAVL is low due to the gustier winds. However, if winds are lighter, BR is possible 10z-13z. Will keep out of the TAF for now.

Outlook: VFR outside of mountain valley fog Tuesday and Wednesday, with light winds. Light precipitation and restrictions could return on Thursday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.