textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

SYNOPSIS

Bitterly cold temperatures today before a quick rebound on Tuesday. High pressure remains over the area with dry conditions through midweek. Rain chances return with an approaching cold front later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 600 AM EST Monday...

Key Message #1: Cold Weather Advisory remains in effect through 9 AM across portions of the North Carolina mountains above 3,500 feet and the Charlotte metro area.

Light winds will allow cold wind chills to continue in portions of the North Carolina mountains above 3,500 feet as well as in Mecklenburg, Cabarrus, Gaston, and Union (NC) counties through daybreak. After this time, wind chills will rise above advisory criteria so the Cold Weather Advisory may be allowed to expire earlier than the current end time of 9 AM.

Key Message #2: Lighter winds return with sunny and dry conditions expected. Although it will be warmer this afternoon, highs will still end up well below normal.

Surface high pressure will be centered over the Carolinas through the near term allowing for lighter winds as well as dry conditions and mostly clear/sunny skies. However, some periodic cirrus will track over the forecast area at times through tonight. The diurnal temperature trend returns today leading to warmer temperatures this afternoon, but highs will still be cold and ~8-15 degrees below normal. Afternoon temps will only reach into the mid 30s to mid 40s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Highs across the higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains will be cooler, ranging from the lower 30s to lower 40s. Lows tonight will be much warmer compared to last night, but will still end up ~5-10 degrees below normal. Lows will drop into the 20s across much of the forecast area.

Key Message #3: Increased Fire Danger Across Northeast Georgia from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM this evening.

Despite lighter winds returning today, the dry air mass will lead to dewpoints in the single digits. With warmer afternoon temperatures expected, minimum relative humidity values will fall below 25 percent across northeast Georgia late this morning into early this evening. Thus, an SPS for Increased Fire Danger was issued.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/

As of 1230 AM EST Monday:

Key Message: Warm temperatures rebound with dry conditions expected.

Much quieter and mild weather returns for the middle of the week. By Tuesday, flow aloft flattens out across most the U.S. and surface high pressure remains overhead through the period. Guidance hints at a kink in the upper flow, bringing a potential shortwave across the southeast on Wednesday. However, it looks fairly weak and with the modifying dry air mass still lingering on Wednesday, it looks as though the disturbance passes by quietly. Surface winds turn SW through Wednesday night, gradually increasing moisture and temperatures. Expect daily highs to increase and be closer to normal on Wednesday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

As of 1205 AM EST Monday:

Key Message: A cold front increases rain chances Thursday into Friday with a dip in temperatures.

A change in the general weather pattern takes place as guidance develops an upper low that swings southward toward the CWA. At the surface the area of low pressure drags a trailing cold front and increases rain chances. Unlike the last few frontal passages, temperatures are expected to be too warm to support much in the way of winter precip types for the majority of the area. Thursday night, when temperatures start to dip across the mountains, there is a slight chance (15-30%) of a quick burst of frozen p-types at the highest elevations. This trend is decreasing with each forecast period though so will continue to evaluate the chance. The main bulk of QPF response also looks to be overnight Thursday before quickly moving out of the region on Friday. After the front moves through, dry weather returns to kick off the weekend. Again temperatures will remain near normal with trends hinting at even warmer temps by the weekend.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Lighter winds and dry conditions can be expected through the 12Z TAF period. Mostly SKC skies are expected outside of some periodic cirrus tracking overhead at times. Wind direction will start out light NE/ENE, or even calm, east of the mountains before turning S/SSW this afternoon. Winds at KAVL will remain out N/NW through mid to late morning before turning S this afternoon. Winds at KAVL will toggle back NW this evening.

Outlook: Dry high pressure keeps VFR around through at least Wednesday night. The next cold front brings rain chances and possible restrictions Thursday into early Friday morning before dry conditions return late Friday morning into early Friday afternoon.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Increased Fire Danger from 10 AM EST this morning through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NCZ033- 048>053-058-059-070>072-082. SC...None.