textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Remnants of Isaias continues to move northeast, bringing gusty winds with a cold front tonight and drier conditions. 2. Dry weather with a warming trend into the middle of next week. A stronger cold front could cross the area by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Remnants of Isaias continues to move northeast, bringing gusty winds with a cold front tonight and drier conditions.

An upper trough engulfs the remnants of Isaias, moving the system out of the area and ushering in drier conditions for the CWA. Ahead of a cold front moving into the area, a few spotty showers could pop up over the mountains. These should remain benign in nature and not pose any impacts to areas that experienced flooding last night and earlier this morning. Once the frontal boundary moves in tonight, rain chances get snubbed and dry conditions settle in. Along with the cold front, gusty northwest winds of 30-40mph possible across the mountains. Highest gusts look to be along the highest peaks, but remain below any Wind Advisory criteria. Should start seeing the winds diminish into Monday afternoon.

Key message 2: Dry weather with a warming trend into the middle of next week. A stronger cold front could cross the area by the weekend.

A moderate ridge develops over the central CONUS, extending into the southeast by midweek. High pressure at the surface amplifies and parks over the area through at least the end of the next week. This should keep rain chances away for most of the area. A stray shower over the mountains may occur but nothing impactful. With the height rises from the ridge, temperatures trend much warmer and return to above normal by Wednesday.

Long term guidance hints at a more seasonal cold front that could push into the area by the weekend, ushering in much drier air and colder temps. A strong surface high looks to spill out of Canada and expand into the central/eastern CONUS. This has the potential for the coldest temps of the season. Details are too murky at this time, but will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty winds have mostly subsided at all sites, but expect gusts to return at KAVL behind a cold front tonight, 25-35 kt gusts out of the northwest are expected. Not confident enough to put any vsbys/cig restrictions at KAVL before daybreak Monday due to the gustier winds. The cold front should slip through the rest of the area shortly after daybreak and turn winds out of the northwest. Low-end gusts are possible at all sites Monday afternoon, with only sporadic cirrus roaming the skies.

Outlook: VFR outside of mountain valley fog Tuesday and Wednesday, with light winds. Light precipitation and restrictions could return on Thursday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.