textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry through Thursday, then daily shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Friday in association with a cold front. Above normal temperatures linger through early next week, with the heat and humidity expected to peak on Friday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry through Thursday, then daily shower and thunderstorm chances return starting Friday in association with a cold front. Above normal temperatures linger through early next week, with the heat and humidity expected to peak on Friday.

The latest guidance suggests a period of relatively typical late-summer weather across the region over the next seven days with only a few minor concerns, as the upper pattern stays relatively flat with most systems passing by to our north and a broad flat mid/upper anticyclone covering much of the Southeast. The heat and humidity will build through Friday thanks to a shearing wave to our west, with a peak expected on Friday. Yes, temps will be on the order of 5-10 degrees above normal, and the dewpoints will reach back up into the upper 60s/lower 70s, but the heat index should stay enough below criteria that a heat advisory is not anticipated. As we get into the weekend, the idea is that a cold front strung out to the north might drift down into our area, but there isn't much support for doing that. The model blend indicates above climo precip probs for the weekend, particularly Saturday, and the magnitude looks a little dubious, but at least the shower/storm chances will increase. Not much of an indication that the environment will support anything more than typical thunderstorms, thus a low (but non-zero) severe storm threat through the weekend. If anything, the threat for excessive rain is the one to watch.

Once we get into the first half of next week, the upper anticyclone is expected to slowly build with a center over the Carolinas, so that will keep the temps in that 5-10 degree above normal range. So, more seasonally hot weather. Precip probs will also be near climo. Fear not, I guarantee that summer will end eventually.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected thru the period, except for mountain valley fog and perhaps some around the lakes near KHKY. The 00z AVL TAF will feature a TEMPO for LIFR fog from 09-13z, which was similar to what occurred this morning. Confidence at KHKY is lower, as temps are not expected to be quite as cool to support as much lake fog. Another quiet day expected Thursday, with few-sct Cu developing again by midday. Wind will generally be VRB or calm this evening thru daybreak Thursday, then favor S to SW around 5-7 kt thru the aftn.

Outlook: A cold front just to our north will bring back daily shower and thunderstorm chances (and possibly restrictions) Friday into the weekend.The probability of morning fog/low stratus will also increase, especially in the mountain valleys.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.