textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An Increased Fire Danger Statement was issued for northeast Georgia for this afternoon.

Minor changes were made to the forecast Wednesday and beyond, but the general trend toward wetter conditions through the end of the week remains the same.

Cold Weather Advisory allowed to expire at 7 AM for portions of the North Carolina mountains.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures quickly moderate through the early week. 2. Low relative humidity and dry fuel moistures have prompted an Increased Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia, valid from noon to 7 PM today. Outdoor burning will be more dangerous than usual. Refer to local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution. 3. Precipitation chances return Wednesday and stick around through the weekend. Warm and above normal highs linger through Thursday before cooler and below normal highs return Friday into the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Temperatures quickly moderate through the early week.

Cold start this morning with wind chills near zero in high mountain elevations; Cold Wx Advisory allowed to expire on time at 7 AM. A warming trend begins today and continues into midweek as northwest flow gives way to flat upper ridging building across the Gulf States into the Southern Appalachians. Warmer, but still below average highs continue today but rapidly warm into the mid to upper 60s by Tuesday with a few readings around 70 not out of the question.

A band of light frontogenetic response associated with upper jet and abundant mid-upper level moisture are together expected to bring thick high altitude cloud cover into portions of western NC this morning through early afternoon. A few flurries cannot be ruled out during the daytime hours today across portions of the northern NC foothills and Piedmont, but large dewpoint depressions should generally preclude much more than a stray flurry or two at best. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry.

Key message 2: Low relative humidity and dry fuel moistures have prompted an Increased Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia, valid from noon to 7 PM today. Outdoor burning will be more dangerous than usual. Refer to local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution.

Fuel moisture readings from RAWS stations in Northeast Georgia dropped below 8 percent in the very dry and windy conditions on Saturday afternoon. Winds will be much lighter today, though relative humidity will be almost as low as it was Saturday, dropping below 25 percent for most of the afternoon. The dry fuels and low humidity together suggest outdoor fires could easily get out of control, and meet the Georgia state criteria for Increased Fire Danger (IFD). A Special Weather Statement (SPSGSP) is being issued to highlight the risk. RH should drop below 25 percent by noon and remain that low through 7 PM. See the SPS for more details.

In NC and SC, despite RH below 30 percent in most areas, state agencies consider wind to be an additional factor in wildfire danger, and winds will be too light to meet the combined criteria. Furthermore, as of Friday, fuels were still considered to be wet following the recent ice and snow.

Key message 3: Precipitation chances return Wednesday and stick around through the weekend. Warm and above normal highs linger through Thursday before cooler and below normal highs return Friday into the weekend.

A cold front will track across the western Carolinas on Wednesday before stalling across the Deep South Thursday into Friday. This front will bring precipitation chances back starting early Wednesday. Surface high pressure attempts to build in from the north across the central and eastern CONUS behind the front Wednesday night into Thursday which would act to shunt any lingering moisture along the stalled frontal boundary south of the forecast area. This may allow dry conditions to return anytime from Wednesday evening into Friday but confidence is very low as model guidance sources are not in agreement regarding how far south the surface high will build. Global models then depict a surface low pressure system developing near the Ark-La-Tex region late Friday into early Saturday before tracking across the forecast area sometime this weekend, bringing precipitation chances back. However, confidence on timing of precipitation over the weekend is very low as guidance differs regarding the exact track and evolution of both the low pressure system and the surface high.

Depending on how much cold air can build into the region behind the cold front and ahead of the low pressure system, wintry p-types of snow and/or freezing rain may return at times Wednesday night into the weekend (mainly across portions of western North Carolina for now). This potential will also be highly dependent on the timing of precipitation and whether it overlaps with the cold air. Thus, confidence on p-types remains very low at this time.

Warm and above normal temperatures linger through Thursday before cooler and below normal temperatures return Friday into the weekend. Highs on Wednesday will remain ~7-12 degrees above normal with temps east of the mountains climbing into the 60s. Highs drop back into the 40s and 50s for most locations Friday into the weekend leading to highs ~3-6 degrees below normal. Lows each night should remain a few to several degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Midlevel cloud deck at FL090-120 advecting into the terminal area as of 1130z, warranting FEW-BKN mention at all sites to start the period. KCLT and KHKY likely to continue seeing BKN cigs through the daytime hours with mountain wave cirrus also forming. A stray flurry of snow is not out of the question at those sites though of no impact. Elsewhere cigs intermittent at the same level. Winds light/VRB in first few hours of the day (except NW at KAVL) but predominantly NE to E. These flip to a S to SW direction late morning to early afternoon for the most part. KCLT looks to flip back to SE after sunset and potentially further backing to NE for a time overnight, but with light speeds and likely return to SW Mon morning, kept it in the S half thru the end of the period. Elsewhere went VRB or calm after sunset. Cloud bases potentially lowering tonight though cigs remaining patchy at best, more likely FEW-SCT.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected through Monday. Moisture will return during the middle part of the week, which could result in some ceiling restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EST today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.