textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry weather expected, with a steady warming trend through the end of the work week. Rain chances could return as early as Friday, but become more likely over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry weather expected, with a steady warming trend through the end of the work week. Rain chances could return as early as Friday, but become more likely over the weekend.

Dry, mild sfc high pressure will slide into the area from the NW, as a weakening coastal low finally starts to accelerate NE along the New England coast. Upper ridging will also work into the region from the west and allow temps to warm to a few degrees above normal by Wednesday and continuing thru Friday. Dry air in place will still allow overnight lows to be near normal, but trend to slightly above normal by Friday.

The upper ridge will start to shift east, while a closed low opens up and merges with a broad northern stream trough over the Southern Plains Thursday into Friday. The GFS continues to be on the faster side of the medium range guidance, on bringing return flow moisture into the forecast area and solid chc PoPs into the western portions of the CWFA. The ECMWF and Canadian continue to keep Friday dry. The deterministic GFS does have some ensemble support, and the NBM continues to ramp up PoPs into the chance range on Friday. Confidence still remains low on that, given the fairly strong upper ridge and dry air in place.

From there, models are in good agreement on a front pushing into the area with plenty of moisture to work with Saturday thru Sunday. PoPs continue to be in the solid chance to likely range. One trend in the latest guidance is for a weaker parent high over southeast Canada and less of a CAD setup. So, not it's not surprising that the latest NBM max temps have trended warmer Saturday and Sunday. A broad upper trough will begin to deepen over the eastern CONUS on Monday, and should help push the slow-moving cold front southeast of the forecast area. The latest NBM keeps fairly high chances around, possibly due to uncertainty on how fast the front will move.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions outside of mountain valley fog this TAF period. The mountain valley fog/low stratus will form again tonight in the usual locations, but it is not expected to impact KAVL. VFR stratocu will remain near KHKY and may develop elsewhere, but cigs are not expected. Light N to NE wind expected tonight and early Tuesday. Winds become S to SE during the afternoon but remain light.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist thru Thursday. Moisture will begin to increase across the area Friday, with a chance of showers by Friday aftn in the mountains, and more widespread showers across the area on Saturday. Mtn valley fog/low stratus remains possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.