textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front keeps shower and thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A cold front keeps shower and thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

Rain chances remain as a trough continues to move eastward through Friday. The heaviest rain moves out with the first round concluding by daybreak. Given the amount of thick cloud cover during the daytime hours and continued lack luster response, not anticipating much outside of a few rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavy rain through daybreak. For the remainder of Thursday, a lull looks to occur ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the west. At best, slight chance (15-35%) for rain this afternoon and into the evening hours. Overnight, model guidance ramps up precip chances as the frontal boundary pushes toward the CWA. Highest PoP chances appear to be along and east of the I-85 corridor. QPF response zooms into minimal amounts.

At this time, the cold front looks to push into the area by Friday morning and through the rest of the day, ushering in drier and cooler air. Surface high pressure behind the front as the trough lifts northeast, shuts down precip chances for the weekend and into next week. With the drier air, moisture gets cutoff and crisper, more Fall temps return. Guidance hints at a return to overnight lows dipping into the 30s for the mountains and 40s elsewhere from Saturday night onward. Long range model guidance hints at the possibility of rain chances returning after day 7, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Poor conditions will continue through much of the TAF period as a slow moving front remains situated west of the area. Plentiful moisture ahead of the front will continue to foster issues with low stratus, patchy fog and scattered showers. IFR to LIFR stratus is common right now and will continue through much of the morning. An eventual return to MVFR is expected this afternoon into the evening with some terminals seeing a brief period of VFR. At least isolated to scattered showers will continue through this afternoon and into the early evening hours. By tonight, another bout of low stratus is expected as the front pushes into the mountains. Once again, IFR to LIFR is expected with a few instances of fog not out of the question as well. Winds will be light out of the southeast, but will shift to out of the northwest behind the front (mainly at KAVL with earlier timing).

Outlook: Consistent improvement is not expected until late Friday, when the cold front moves to our east and ushers in VFR conditions for this weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.