textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and seasonally warm through Friday, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The risk of any significant weather is low.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry and seasonally warm through Friday, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The risk of any significant weather is low.

Gusty winds will continue into the afternoon, but not as strong as they were this past morning when a mountain wave brought some strong wind gusts down to the valleys in Rabun County GA. The wind should slowly diminish through the afternoon, and clouds in the NW flow upslope areas of the nrn mountains near the TN border should dissipate late in the day. Only minor changes were made to the high temps, which should peak around five degrees above normal.

The weather looks fair and persistent for the next few days, in that the pattern becomes nearly stagnant with a mid/upper anticyclone migrating slowly from the NW Gulf Coast today to the coast of the Carolinas Thursday. The next three days will be very similar, with bright sunny sky that allows temps to warm up about ten degrees above normal, and clear nights that show a gradual warming trend through the week. A cold front gets strung out west-east across the central Appalachians and the Mid-Atlantic region, but that boundary will be hard pressed to make it this far south.

The pattern finally gets moving late in the week as a strong short wave trof diving southeast out of Canada phases with some energy from a trof over the Rockies Thursday into Friday. The resultant deepening upper trof barrels eastward and drives a strong cold front across our region Friday night. Gulf moisture return this far east looks poor. On the TN side of the mtns, upslope flow behind the front could result in some shower activity Friday night and early Saturday morning, but areas east of the mtns should stay dry. You will notice the temperature change. A large continental high is expected to build in behind the front for Saturday and Sunday, dropping the temps about 20 degrees from what we will have through most of the week. That will mean temperatures going from ten degrees above normal on Friday to ten degrees below normal on Saturday and Sunday. Low temps will be down into the 30s around daybreak both days, so we will have to evaluate the frost potential through the week. Temps should moderate early next week.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 00z TAF period. Sct high clouds should move east of the fcst area over the next few hrs. Overnight, the usual fog/low stratus concerns will develop again in the mtn valleys and near the rivers, but it's still looking like the relatively low dewpts at KAVL should keep them VFR. Winds will go light and VRB to calm later tonight and remain that way thru the morning. They will favor a SWLY direction tomorrow afternoon with speeds around 5 kts. At KAVL, winds are ex- pected to remain light and VRB thru the TAF period.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru at least the middle of the week. The only exception will be the potential for mtn valley fog overnight/each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.