textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes to the forecast with this update.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warm and dry today, then a cold front crosses the area Monday, bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather for the rest of the week, except for brief rain chances mainly across western NC on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Warm and dry today, then a cold front crosses the area Monday, bringing some showers and isolated thunderstorms. Mostly dry weather for the rest of the week, except for brief rain chances mainly across western NC on Wednesday.

A pocket of dry air will spread over the area today ahead of a cold front approaching from the NW. Mostly sunny skies and light winds will be on tap, with highs a few degrees above normal.

Our most active day of the week looks to be Monday, and even then, it's not too exciting. A cold front will cross the CWFA early Monday, with the sfc boundary possibly reaching the southern edge of the forecast area by midday. Scattered to numerous showers will push into the mountains during the pre-dawn hours, then spread east thru the day. There may be some MUCAPE to support elevated thunder, but the highest chances look to be in the Upper Savannah Valley, where enhanced convergence could support some sfc-based CAPE in the 500- 1000 J/kg range. Overall, any severe threat looks low, with more robust convection likely developing south and east of the forecast area later in the day. And rainfall amounts look light, with most areas likely to see only a tenth of an inch or less. A few localized amounts could be higher due to the convective nature of the precip. Overall, with clouds and showers, temps will be cooler than Sunday.

Below-normal temps briefly return behind the front Monday night thru Tuesday. Lows are trending a little warmer Monday night, so frost is looking less likely in the mountains. A clipper system will dive from the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday, and could bring a quick shot of showers and perhaps a tstm or two thru the Southern Appalachians. Models are trending drier with this feature, and the northern half or so of the CWFA has the best chance of any measurable rain. Dry conditions return Thursday and continue into next weekend, with a warming trend toward above normal temps by Saturday.

AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. A few instances of patchy fog have been observed early this morning, but coverage and duration have been limited. Any fog should quickly mix out after sunrise. High clouds overnight have shifted east of the area with only a few high cirrus through the rest of the day. Winds will be light and variable through the period with direction waffling back and forth between north and southwest.

Outlook: A cold front will cross the area tonight into early Monday, bringing another round of rain and associated flight restrictions. Dry and VFR conditions will return by Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.