textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Lower temperatures, but still hot, to end the week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and hot conditions today. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry and hot conditions today. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances through the week.

An upper ridge axis moves over the area today. At the surface, high pressure over the area weakens as a backdoor cold front drops south into VA. There is little in the way of instability or low level moisture influx. This should keep most of the area day, but there is a small chance of mainly diurnal convection over NE GA and west of the French Broad Valley. Highs today rise a couple of degrees. There will also be a noticeable increase in dewpoints bringing low end muggy conditions. Lows tonight will be around 5 degrees above normal.

A deep shortwave slowly moves to the area Monday and slowly across the area Tuesday and Wednesday. At the surface, the backdoor cold front drops into the area Monday and stalls on Tuesday. This brings cooler temps and increasing chances of convection with deep moisture and good forcing. The front washes out on Wednesday with weak upper ridging and weak surface high pressure over the area though Saturday. The result is continued chances of diurnal convection with a warming trend. The guidance has backed off on the very hot temps to end the week, but does show temps around 90 common outside of the mountains. This also keeps heat index values below the 100 degree mark, but mid 90s will be possible mainly south of the I-85 corridor.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Cirrus will continue to stream over the area though the period. VFR afternoon Cu expected with BKN conditions at KAVL. Some Cu may linger overnight, and stratocu may move into the mountains from the west. Mainly cirrus elsewhere. Mountain valley fog expected again this morning, but not at KAVL. If fact, it could be less widespread than the past two days. With even more in the way of clouds overnight, mountain valley fog will likely be patchy at best. Light SW winds this morning pick up during the afternoon then go back light overnight.

Outlook: Diurnal convection and associated restrictions return Monday and continue thru next week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.