textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. NW snowfall will taper off this morning across the higher elevations along the Tennessee border. 2. Colder temperatures and drier conditions will linger into midweek. A warming trend returns for the latter half of next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: NW snowfall will taper off this morning across the higher elevations along the Tennessee border.

Broad/deep upper trofing will remain centered over our area into Sunday, and then begin to move off the Atlantic Coast by early next week. At the sfc, broad Canadian high pressure will continue to gradually spread colder air across the Southeast region. The persistent NW flow and lingering low-level moisture along the NC/ TN border will maintain snow chances thru roughly mid-morning. While a few locations outside the Smokies could see a bit more snow accumulation this morning (ie, an inch or less), the higher elevations of the Smokies (above 4500 ft) could see an additional 1 to 3 inches before the snow ends later this morning. Once the upper trof axis lifts NE of our area and the low-levels dry out, any lingering moisture should be negligible and the snowfall will end.

Key message 2: Colder temperatures and drier conditions will linger into midweek. A warming trend returns for the latter half of next week.

Broad Canadian high pressure will continue to move SE and expand over our area this weekend and early next week. Most of the latest long-range guidance keeps the high centered just to our north thru the end of the week with dry air locked in place across the region. Wind gusts associated with the broad upper trof centered over our area will linger across portions of the NC mtns into Sunday before diminishing. Once the upper trof lifts NE of our area, winds should remain light for the rest of the week.

We can also expect the coldest temperatures of the season the next few nights/mornings. The latest guidance remains on track for freezing temperatures across the majority of our CWA this morning, becoming more widespread later tonight and into Sunday morning. As previously mentioned, no frost or freeze products will be issued for our CWA as the growing season was declared over on November 11th. As the week progresses, the airmass slowly modifies and temperatures gradually warm thru the end of the week and into next weekend.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR still expected to prevail for the 06Z TAF period, with brief intermittent MVFR ceilings once again possible at KAVL through daybreak, but with too little chance to mention in the TAF tonight. Spotty NW-flow flurries are likely to continue along the NC-TN border for the next few hours, but aren't likely to impact any of the TAF sites. Most ob locations are no longer reporting gusts, and winds should remain steady out of the NW at 4-8kts through the overnight...with low-end gusts returning in the afternoon. FEW/SCT fair weather cu should redevelop on Saturday afternoon, giving way to SKC and lighter winds Saturday night.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the middle of next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.