textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the public forecast with this update.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. No precipitation expected through late next week. Temperatures remain below normal through around Monday, but a warming trend will bring above-normal daytime temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: No precipitation expected through late next week. Temperatures remain below normal through around Monday, but a warming trend will bring above-normal daytime temperatures Wednesday through Friday.

Upper pattern will remain highly amplified across the CONUS over the next several days and thus progress will be slow. Deep trough will remain centered over the Northeast through Sunday, with anomalously strong upper ridge in the central CONUS. High pressure will expand out of the Ohio Valley into our area between those features. That high is reinforced as the upper ridge further deepens and begins to shift slowly eastward. The associated subsidence, compounded by northerly flow through the middle of next week, will keep us dry through the forecast period.

Winds remain breezy today (Sunday) helping cold air to continue to filter into the area; that gradient relaxes by early Monday. Both morning min and afternoon max temps will remain below normal through Monday; sunshine will promote warmer afternoon temps though nights will remain below normal into the middle of the week. Late-week highs will be on the order of 10 above normal. As temperatures warm, one developing concern may be low RH, 25% or less, contributing to critical fire weather conditions as fuels dry. Significant moisture return is not likely to occur until next weekend at the soonest.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR still expected to continue through the 06Z TAF period. Stratocu and associated low-VFR ceilings are increasingly confined to the NC-TN border, and should continue to retreat north and west as the night progresses; no restrictions are anticipated at KAVL or other mountain terminals. Could see a few stray gusts throughout the night, particularly at AVL, but too infrequent for a mention elsewhere. Isolated fair-wx cu may redevelop again east of the mountains on Sunday afternoon...before SKC and light/variable winds return Sunday night.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to continue through at least the middle of next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.