textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain amounts for the week have trended down, but shower and thunderstorm chances remain each day.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warming trend continues today as moisture also returns to the region. 2. Warm and humid for Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Warming trend continues today as moisture also returns to the region.

A benign pattern remains in place with flat westerlies draped across much of the CONUS with northern stream energy centered along the Canadian border. Heights will rise across the southeast states through today as a Bermuda ridge becomes established off the southeast coast. A southerly return flow will bring moisture back into the area and will keep humidity values above critical thresholds, but fuels remain dry and burn bans remain in effect. Temperatures warm back into the low to mid 70s today with overnight lows falling into the low to mid 50s tonight.

Key message 2: Warm and humid for Tuesday through next weekend with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

The southeast remains under a steady upper ridge from through the weekend. At the surface, high pressure amplifies offshore, keeping a much deeper and broad warm sector across the region. By Tuesday, the western fringe of this persistent area of high pressure remain overhead of the southeast, allowing for a steady moisture fetch and storm chances to return. Previous guidance did have a weak front that would have passed through, but the latest model runs keeps the high pressure dominating the southeast, meaning any boundary dissolves before reaching the CWA. The main point is a return of shower and thunderstorm chances in a more summer-like pattern. PoP starts to ramp up as early as Tuesday onward with mainly typical diurnally driven convection. QPF response continues to decrease as model guidance trends a bit drier. This doesn't mean no rain, but any rainfall is highly dependent on where these pop-up showers and thunderstorms can occur. As is the usual for this type of pattern, the higher chances is over the mountains. With the moisture and increased rain chances, this helps to dampen fire concerns. Additionally, temperatures are way too warm for this time of year and with the added moisture, makes for a more humid air mass. Expect temperatures 10-15 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. A deck of low stratus has built into the area as moisture returns, but ceilings are expected to remain VFR. Stratus will scatter heading into the afternoon with a few instances of gusty south/southwest winds. Winds return to light overnight with continued VFR stratus.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected to continue through the early part of the week. Moisture will increase Tuesday and Wednesday, leading to elevated chances for showers and thunderstorms with associated restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.