textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the impending 12z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Warm temperatures and near-critical RH expected again this afternoon. Bans on outdoor burning continue in both North Carolina and South Carolina. 2. Pattern change this weekend and into early next week, with rain chances every day but Monday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Warm temperatures and near-critical RH expected again this afternoon. Bans on outdoor burning continue in both North Carolina and South Carolina.

Dry and quiet conditions observed across the western Carolinas as we approach dawn, with dewpoint depressions of 10 to 15 degrees over much of the area, and clear skies virtually everywhere.

An upper ridge axis presently extending from the Deep South into the Ohio Valley will begin to break down today in response to deepening upper lows over Nova Scotia and Saskatchewan...while at the surface, a Bermuda high-like configuration will continue more or less unabated. Despite steady SSW surface flow...dewpoints will struggle to recover through the day, and another afternoon of low RH is expected. Near-critical RHs are expected east of the mountains, with at least some locations along I-77 falling below 25% RH. However, with much lighter winds expected today, land managers have not indicated any need for a Fire Danger Statement. For NC and SC, burn bans remain in place.

The 00z suite of hi-res guidance depicts widely scattered showers developing across the NC mountains and Piedmont this afternoon, as a very weak shortwave slides out of the Mid-Atlantic and across the central Carolinas this afternoon. Skeptical of any rain making it to the ground, given how dry the boundary layer is. But, can't entirely rule out a rogue shower here or there this afternoon...especially over the mountains.

Key message 2: Pattern change this weekend and into early next week, with rain chances every day but Monday.

A cold front crosses the area late Saturday then moves slowly east on Sunday. Moisture an forcing will be sufficient for likely to categorical shower chances Saturday afternoon and evening. There will be enough instability for scattered thunderstorms as well, but no significant severe storm chance. Rainfall amounts will average a quarter of an inch outside of the mountains, with a half to possibly an inch across the mountains. Very welcome but not enough to significantly reduce drought conditions. Isolated showers linger on Sunday in the moist easterly flow behind the front. Highs 5 to 10 degrees above normal Saturday remain above normal Sunday but look wedge-like in the moist easterly flow. After a dry Monday, rain chances return with a series of frontal systems moving across the area through the end of the period. The potential exists for 1 to 2 inches of rainfall through this period, hopefully bringing some drought relief. Temperatures near normal Monday and Tuesday rise back above normal Wednesday and Thursday.

AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Predominantly VFR to continue for the 12z TAF period. Clear skies with light and variable winds should continue overnight, with an increase in mid-level daytime cu today. Winds will pick up out of the SW by mid-morning...with low-end sporadic gusts possible, but too infrequent to include in the TAFs. Isolated showers possible across the NC mountains today...but again, coverage is expected to be much too low for a mention in the KAVL TAF. Partly cloudy skies continue into tonight, and MVFR to isolated IFR flight restrictions may develop by dawn Saturday as rain chances increase ahead of an approaching cold front. Showers will continue into Saturday.

Outlook: Rain chances will taper off on Saturday night. Generally dry, VFR conditions are expected to return for Sunday and Monday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.