textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the 00z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through Monday. 2. A series of storm systems will bring several rounds of rain chances through the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions and seasonable temperatures continue through Monday.

In the wake of a cold front, drier air will continue to filter into the region. Meanwhile, as an area of low pressure lifts off the east coast, NE surface winds contribute to brief CAA into the CWA. This lingers a bit into Monday night as well. Since precip isn't expected, the most the area sees from this in-situ CAD are impacts on temperatures. Earlier today, the NC Piedmont had highs a few degrees cooler than yesterday with the remainder of the area east of the mountains dipping down into the mid 70s for Monday. Overnight temps could also become chilly as moisture wiped out from the FROPA remains adrift. Additionally, relatively low wind gusts east of the mountains through Monday before diminishing, as winds across the higher elevations start to pick up Monday evening ahead of the next frontal boundary.

Key message 2: A series of storm systems will bring several rounds of rain chances through the week.

By tomorrow night, a series of shortwave troughs embedded within a branch of southern stream flow will extend from the Midwest to the Desert Southwest. The lead wave over the Midwest will have helped to instigate widespread deep convection along and ahead of a cold front extending down the Mississippi Valley. This activity is forecast to push east overnight across Tennessee and Kentucky and will approach the mountains by or just before sunrise Tuesday morning. Convective elements are likely with some thunder possible, but current indications are that any storms will have outpaced the better parameter space and will not pose a severe threat. The upper wave quickly pulls away from the area and leaves the trailing cold front stalled to our west. With waning forcing, coverage of any showers and storms should become increasingly scattered east of the mountains, although exact coverage remains uncertain at this time.

Meanwhile, the next shortwave will eject out of the Desert Southwest on Tuesday and translate across the Southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley. Another round of vigorous upstream convection is expected with another early morning arrival to the mountains on Wednesday. This wave will also track farther south with better forcing across the Southern Appalachians bringing the potential for maintenance of convection farther east across the foothills and Piedmont through the day. Sufficient deep shear will be present of at least loosely organized storms and an isolated severe threat could materialize should at least modest destabilization occur.

The cold frontal boundary looks to clear the area by Thursday, but the southern stream flow remains rather active as a closed upper low swings across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico. Additional rounds of precipitation will be possible late week into next weekend, but will be dependent on where the frontal boundary stalls to our south and if it were to lift back north and provide a focus for training showers/storms.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Locally gusty easterly winds will continue to temper through mid-evening. Low vfr stratocu cigs acrs W NC will persist, expand and lower through tonight with the best chances of MVFR cig development from AVL-HKY-GSO. Another day of easterly wind on Monday, perhaps becoming a little gusty in the morning before veering and weakening in the afternoon.

Outlook: Another cold front on Tuesday could bring rain chances and possible flight restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.