textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

PoP trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Convection will slowly move south into the early overnight. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Convection will slowly move south into the early overnight.

Convection is weakening as it moves south across the area. The storms are showing decent speed; however, they are very efficient rainfall producers. Therefore, some heavy rainfall remains possible. The severe threat has diminished but can't rule out a rogue strong storm. Convection should end or move out of the area shortly after midnight, but some showers may linger overnight.

Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek.

Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air moves into the area by Sunday, shunting rain chances for a a few days. As a surface high migrates eastward over the Midwest and into the northeast portion of the country, reduced moisture and air from the north contribute to a welcomed break in heat as temperatures look to dip into the 80s for most of the area through the end the forecast period. As the high moves offshore by midweek, moisture slowly starts to return and increases rain chances once again. Mostly expecting the typical summertime afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to resume. Overall, calmer and slightly cooler weather ahead.

AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains and into the foothills and piedmont at this time. It has cleared KAVL, although a shower is possible through early evening, and is on the doorstep of KHKY/KGSP/KGMU. Have short TEMPOs there. The convection may reach KCLT so PROB30 continues there. Least chance at KAND, so no TSRA mention for now. Guidance still insistent on MVFR then IFR cigs developing overnight. They also suggest mainly MVFR vsby, with IFR to LIFR at KAVL/KHKY. Show all of this in the TAFs. Slow improvement after daybreak with VFR all areas by 17Z. Only isolated convection expected Saturday, so no mention at this time. Southeasterly wind this evening becomes light and variable overnight, then light SW, NNW at KAVL, on Saturday.

Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.