textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger will be issued for all our NC zones for Wednesday between 11 am and 8 pm.

Rain chances have trended up from Saturday through early next week, but confidence on QPF amounts remains low.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Increased Fire Danger across northeast GA through 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for all of western NC and northeast GA for Wednesday afternoon as well. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and persist through the end of the week, along with critically low relative humidity each afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. No outdoor burning! 2. A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Increased Fire Danger across northeast GA through 8 PM today. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for all of western NC and northeast GA for Wednesday afternoon as well. Above normal temperatures return Wednesday and persist through the end of the week, along with critically low relative humidity each afternoon, keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday. Any fire that develops will catch and spread quickly. No outdoor burning!

Dry weather will continue for the rest of the work week, with afternoon RH down into the critical territory each day through Friday. Although sfc high pressure moves down off the Southeast Coast and sets up a weak return flow of low level moisture, the temperatures also warm up to about ten degrees above normal and get a bit warmer each day. A cold front will make an attempt to move down from the north but won't make it as an upper ridge builds in from the west Wednesday night and Thursday. NBM dewpoints were undercut accordingly because of the known bias. Thus, afternoon RH still falls down to 25 percent or below across most of the fcst area Wed/Thu/Fri.

Wednesday looks like the most critical day because of better potential for gusty winds in the afternoon. The way the fcst is constructed, it doesn't appear that we will reach Red Flag criteria, because the best wind gust potential is across the ridgetops and peaks above 5k feet where the RH is the greatest. For now, after coordination with our neighbors and the land managers, we will handle this with another Increased Fire Danger Statement for northeast GA and our western NC zones for Wednesday afternoon/eve. Thursday and Friday will be considered as they come. The burn ban also remains in effect across SC.

Key message 2: A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

A pattern change will finally develop toward the end of the week, with the upper flow becoming more zonal and active. The first wave to eject out of the west and flatten the eastern CONUS ridge will cross the area Saturday. This will bring a cold front thru the CWFA, which will bring our first rain chances in a while. As expected, models are trending a little lower on QPF, with the 00z LREF now only showing a 30% of half an inch of rainfall Sat-Sat night, and <20% elsewhere. PoPs have actually trended up, as confidence on at least some measurable rainfall across most of the area, mainly in the mountains. Temps will be slightly cooler behind the front starting Sunday, but still a few degrees above normal.

The latest guidance is coming into better agreement on another cold front crossing the Southeast and bringing rain chances to the CWFA again Tuesday. It may actually tap into some Gulf moisture and the 00z LREF has a 30% to 60% chance of half an inch of rainfall with this system (lowest east and highest in the Smokies). Given the ongoing drought and the numerical guidance tending to be too optimistic with rainfall when out on Day 7, confidence remains modest and the NBM's likely PoPs may be overdone.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. Wind will be generally light and veering around to the southeast and south this afternoon, before going light/variable around/after sunset. When the wind returns on Wednesday morning, the direction should be southwest or west-southwest outside the mtns, northwest at KAVL. Guidance indicates the wind gusts could be a thing in the afternoon, but only KCLT goes out that far at this time.

Outlook: VFR and dry through the work week thanks to high pressure. A frontal system may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.