textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated Aviation Discussion.

Adjusted PoP trends this evening based on radar and latest guidance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening diminish overnight. 2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Isolated showers and thunderstorms this evening diminish overnight.

Convection has moved mostly south of the area; however, an outflow boundary will move west across the Upstate and northeast Georgia through the evening. This may create additional mainly isolated convection as it crosses the area. With loss of heating leading to lower instability, the severe storm threat will diminish. That said, can't rule out a strong to possibly severe storm given there is still some dCAPE and effective shear over the western Upstate and NE GA.

For Tuesday, a trough over the eastern portion of the country amplifies and pushes a cold front through the area. Guidance depicts another round of mainly isolated showers ahead of the cold front pushing through. Coverage looks to be less widespread and rather benign. Highest chances are for the mountains, but there is still a chance for locations along and west of I-26. QPF response looks to be minimal, with most locations receiving less than 0.10" in totals. There could be a slight uptick if a shower produces more rain in an isolated location. Temps look to be below normal for Tuesday as well.

Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend through the weekend.

Once the frontal boundary passes, much drier air and calmer weather conditions ensue. High pressure is ushered in as a ridge moves over the southeast and remains in place through the weekend. These height rises toward the end of the week look to increase daily temps to normal for June. Moisture starts to return as well after mid-week and this increases dewpoints. However, not foreseeing any heat index issues at this time. Long range guidance starts to signal for rain chances returning toward the beginning of next week, but confidence this far out is very low.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection has mostly moved south of the TAF sites; however, an outflow boundary moving west across the Upstate could re-initiate convection for those sites this evening. Have gone dry for now but will amend as needed. N to NE winds continue through the night for the NC sites and become NE after the outflow boundary passes the SC sites. Low VFR clouds develop across the area overnight. The clouds only slowly lift and/or scatter out through the day. Gusty NW winds develop near or a little after daybreak then diminish by late afternoon. KAVL sees light N wind becoming light SE for the afternoon. Isolated showers are possible, but chance too low for the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: A drier pattern sets up Wednesday and continues through the rest of the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.