textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions continue for most of the seven-day forecast period. Widespread low humidity is expected each afternoon. 2. Dry and hot next week with no significant drought relief in sight.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions continue for most of the seven-day forecast period. Widespread low humidity is expected each afternoon.

A broad ridge of surface high pressure continues to ridge down the Eastern Seaboard. On Saturday, as a shortwave trough crosses the Great Lakes and upper Ohio Valley, a weak, mostly-dry cold front will push across the western Carolinas from the north. Paltry instability, of up to 750 J/kg, will develop ahead of the front, and a few of the hi-res models, most notably the recent runs of the HRRR and the 12z RRFS, depict isolated showers developing, mainly along the I-77 corridor, late Saturday afternoon and evening as the boundary crosses the area. No thunder is expected, and QPF response should be minimal.

Otherwise, dry conditions will continue through at least Sunday, with near-critical RH likely across most of the area each afternoon. Beginning Monday, high pressure looks to retreat northward, allowing a southwesterly return flow to develop for much of next week. This should allow dewpoints to slowly rebound...and yet, as temperatures begin a warming trend on Monday...little relief from dry conditions can be expected through late next week.

Key message 2: Dry and hot next week with no significant drought relief in sight.

Ridging surface and aloft build over the area next week. This helps push highs into the 90 degree range across much of the area outside of the mountains, with mid and even upper 80s in the normally warmer mountain valleys, from Tuesday onward. This will put record highs in jeopardy. The ridging blocks any frontal systems and keeps a relatively dry airmass in place with little moisture return. RH values will be near critical levels each afternoon, but breezy conditions aren't expected for now.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR. Fairly steady but light SW winds to start the period though all sites are expected to go light/VRB the 02-03z. Given similar impacts versus VRB and light SW, just started VRB at KCLT to keep the TAF as brief as possible. The NC sites (KCLT, KHKY, KAVL) are expected to come up from NW in the morning where as the SC sites likely won't settle into a direction until closer to midday, then being SW. The NC sites also may see a few high based cumulus on Saturday. KCLT may go VRB at sunset Saturday evening but given northerly flow aloft and low confidence, went 080 at that time.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions continue through at least the middle of next week.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.