textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low. The next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with the exception of Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low. The next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with the exception of Sunday.

Warm and dry high pressure lingers over the region through Friday keeping well above normal temperatures around. Highs peak on Friday, climbing into the upper 70s to lower 80s in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains.

A dry backdoor cold front tracks across the GSP forecast area late Friday into early Saturday. Cold air damming gradually develops behind the front as surface high pressure centers itself over the Northeast US this weekend. This will allow much cooler high temperatures to return. Highs on Saturday will remain a few degrees above normal, with highs on Sunday dropping near normal to just below normal. Model guidance continues trending drier each forecast cycle, showing the southern periphery of the surface ridge shunting the bulk of moisture south and west of the GSP forecast area. As a result, the latest NBM has trended even lower on PoPs Sunday into Sunday night, depicting mostly slight chance PoPs across the western half of the forecast area.

The high looks to remain in control of the pattern through at least Tuesday, allowing mostly dry conditions to continue. Thus, NBM no longer has mentionable PoPs (<15%) on Monday or Tuesday. The next best chance for rain looks to arrive by Wednesday or Thursday as a low pressure system approaches out of the west. A slight warming trend can be expected through much of the workweek, with high temperatures trending back above normal.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and mostly VFR through the 00Z TAF period. Low VFR stratocu has dissipated leaving on cirrus for the evening into the overnight. Expect mountain valley fog but not at KAVL overnight. Only cirrus expected during the day as well. Light and variable to calm winds overnight become light N to NE during the day Friday.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday, outside of mountain valley fog. Rain and associated restrictions may return Sunday but confidence is now very low with global weather models trending drier each successive model run. Models are now trending dry for Monday and Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.