textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

SYNOPSIS

An upper ridge over Texas expands east keeping temperatures above normal through early next week. A low pressure system could bring rain to the area Friday night into Saturday before dry and warm conditions return Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1230 PM EST New Year's Eve...

Key Message #1: Increased fire danger east of the mountains in North Carolina as well as for most of Northeast Georgia through 5 PM EST.

In collaboration with the Peachtree City NWS and the Georgia Forestry Commission as well as the Raleigh NWS and North Carolina Land Managers, the SPS for Increased Fire Danger remains in effect for the North Carolina Foothills and Piedmont as well as most of northeast Georgia (with the exception of Rabun County) through 5 PM EST. Minimum relative humidity values will drop near or below 25 percent this afternoon with west/southwest wind gusts ranging from 15 to 25 mph. Low relative humidity combined with breezy winds will lead to increased fire danger. Refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires can quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

Key Message #2: Wind advisory in effect from 9 PM tonight through Noon Thursday for Avery County as well as elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey, Mitchell and Buncombe Counties.

Wind speeds increase (mainly across the mountains) this evening into Thursday morning ahead of a cold front, becoming gusty. Avery County as well as elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey, Mitchell and Buncombe Counties will see gusts reach advisory criteria. Thus, a Wind Advisory has been issued in collaboration with the Blacksburg NWS as gusts from 45-55 mph can be expected across these locations. Wind gusts are expected to remain below advisory criteria elsewhere.

Key Message #3: Dry conditions linger outside of some snow flurries across the northern North Carolina mountains overnight into Thursday morning.

Cyclonic flow remains aloft through the near term. At the sfc, the northeastern periphery of high pressure remains extended across the Southeast keeping dry conditions around for most locations through Thursday. However, a cold front will approach out of the northwest late tonight into Thursday morning, possibly allowing snow flurries to develop across the northern North Carolina mountains. Little to no accumulation is expected. The front will stall over the forecast area the rest of the near term. Temperatures remain cool and just below normal today, trending warmer and above normal tomorrow for most locations. The exception will be areas along the NC/TN border which will likely see below normal temperatures continue. Lows tonight will end up a few degrees above normal thanks to lingering cloud cover.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1110 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message #1: Dry Friday with highs above normal.

Clouds will increase across the area through the day on Friday. Even so, highs will be around 5 degrees above climo.

Key Message #2: Chance of rain Friday night and Saturday.

A weak southern stream system will move quickly across the southeastern states Friday and Saturday. Model consensus has trended back toward a little more rainfall across our area with a half inch of much needed rain possible. No wintry precipitation is expected with this system.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1115 AM EST Wednesday...

Key Message #1:Dry with a warming trend Sunday into Tuesday.

High pressure settles over the area Sunday and slowly moves east through Tuesday. This brings a return to dry conditions and temps rising to around 10 degrees above normal by Tuesday.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 00z taf period. A broad area of sct to bkn cirrus will spread over the area from the NW this evening before thinning out early Thursday morning. KAVL could see some low-end VFR stratocu move over the terminal around daybreak, but whether or not it will be more than sct, remains unclear. Otherwise, expect just a few high cirrus for Thursday aftn/evening. Winds outside of the mtns will generally be SW thru the overnight, becoming more WLY by late mor- ning. Most terminals could see some sporadic low-end gusts tomorrow, but they will likely be more frequent at KCLT and KAND. Otherwise, at KCLT and KHKY, winds are expected to go N of W during the aftn and weaken. At KAVL, winds will remain NWLY thru the taf period with another round of low-end gusts expected tomorrow morning/aftn. They could also see some LLWS develop overnight and linger thru daybreak.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to linger thru Friday. A low pressure system will bring rain and associated restrictions to the area Friday night thru Saturday. Dry, VFR conditions return on Sunday and persist into early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST Thursday for NCZ033-049-050-053. SC...None.