textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

SPC introduced a Marginal Risk for Severe Storms for Monday afternoon and evening.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Drier for the weekend. Severe storms may develop ahead of a cold front on Monday. A more typical summertime pattern returns behind the cold front the rest of the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Drier for the weekend. Severe storms may develop ahead of a cold front on Monday. A more typical summertime pattern returns behind the cold front the rest of the week with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected.

Drier air will continue to spread over the forecast area today as high pressure builds in behind a departing front. This should keep dry conditions around for most of the weekend, although the NBM has some slight chance PoPs over the North Carolina mountains and extreme northeast Georgia Sunday afternoon/evening but confidence is low as 06Z CAMs are not excited about this potential and show mostly dry conditions continuing. Temperatures today should remain a few degrees below normal for mid to late June, with values warming to near-normal for Sunday. Better shower and thunderstorm chances return on Monday, especially across the North Carolina mountains, as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is still progged to move through the area Monday night into Tuesday with weak sfc high pressure pushing into the fcst area in its wake on Tuesday. Scattered to widespread convection is looking more likely Monday afternoon/evening, and there still appears to be the potential for severe storms ahead of the front. The SPC Day 3 Severe Weather Outlook now has us in a Marginal risk for isolated severe storms. The main hazard with any severe storms Monday afternoon and evening would be damaging winds. Breezy southwest winds are also expected ahead of the front on Monday as the sfc pressure gradient tightens across the Carolinas. Wind speeds/gusts should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but they could certainly blow around unsecured objects. A more typical summertime pattern eventually develops behind the front for the latter half of the work week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and near normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites thru the 12 TAF period. Relatively dry air will linger over our area today as a broad area of high clouds streams over the region from the west. Low stratus and fog has developed in the usual mountain valleys over the past few hrs, but is not expected to reach KAVL. Outside the mtns, light and VRB to calm winds this morning will eventually swing around to W/SW this aftn with light speeds around 5 kts. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the TAF period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected thru at least early Sunday. Isolated afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may return on Sunday, but chances look much better on Monday and Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.