textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Lingering showers taper off today as drier air moves in and cuts off rain chances through at least middle of next week. Temperatures remain cool through the weekend before returning to normal next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Lingering showers taper off today as drier air moves in and cuts off rain chances through at least middle of next week. Temperatures remain cool through the weekend before returning to normal next week.

The persistent cold air damming starts to break down today as drier air is ushered in from the northeast. Before the drier air, lingering showers and drizzle to start the day and begin fizzling out by the afternoon. A reinforcing area of high pressure off to the north helps to amplify and swing in a back door cold front tonight and into Friday. As the dry air comes in, it could increase fog chances for a period late Thursday night or early Friday morning. With the ample amount of much drier air, this should shunt rain chances for the foreseeable future. Long range guidance hints at the next chance being out on Day 7, as it suggests another strong frontal boundary approaching the region. Still too far out to pinpoint anything, but for now, enjoy the drier air.

As for temperatures, the CAD in place keeps daytime highs well into the cool range, mostly 60s with low 70s in northeast Georgia. As the CAD erodes, temps creep back up, but remain more like what Fall should be. Drier air moving in helps to drop those overnight temps through Monday night before slowly warming. Some locations in the mountains and NC Piedmont look to dip into the 40s each night through Sunday night. Surface winds become southerly again by midweek, allowing for moisture to steadily increase, raising overnight temps.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: IFR continues with some locations at MVFR. Improvement comes slowly through 16z-18z. KAVL could have a brief period of 2SM vsby, so TEMPO from 12z-14z. Drier air moves in and should bring KCLT back to VFR by 22z-00z. Other sites to follow. -RA expected at all sites through mid morning before tapering off. Winds remain NE through the period and gusts of 15-25kts pick up again Thursday morning for all terminals east of the mountains.

Outlook: VFR should return everywhere by Friday and into the weekend, though mountain/river valley fog/stratus could still develop before daybreak each day.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.