textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Expected onset of rain has slowed slightly from Thursday night or early Friday morning to the daylight hours on Friday. Considerable uncertainty still remains in the forecast, so take this with a grain of salt.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry weather expected through the week, with temperatures steadily warming to above normal by mid-week. Rain chances could return as early as Friday, but become more likely over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry weather expected through the week, with temperatures steadily warming to above normal by mid-week. Rain chances could return as early as Friday, but become more likely over the weekend.

A slow-moving Nor'easter remains in place off the southern New Jersey coast, driving sustained northerly CAA that has kept the Carolinas clear, dry, and relatively cool. Expect another clear and cool night, with lows in the 50s across the low terrain, and higher elevations across Appalachia falling well into the 40s.

Not much change to the forecast thinking tonight, with the bulk of guidance not showing much change to the pattern for the next few days. Through Tuesday afternoon, deterministic models are in good agreement that the sfc low will drift northeastward and weaken, while upper ridging simultaneously builds across the eastern CONUS. There's good agreement on steadily increasing temperatures in tandem with the building ridge, but generally dry conditions through at least Thursday. Moisture should steadily increase the second half of the week, but the suppressive effect of the ridge means it'll take a while for this to manifest as anything more than increasing humidity. The latest round of long-range ensemble guidance seems to more heavily support the deterministic GFS's faster solution, with rain arriving as early as Friday evening...while some 1/2 to 2/3 of the overall ensemble solutions still favor rain arriving later...during the day Saturday.

Meanwhile, expansive surface high pressure developing over the northern Great Plains as early as Thursday should migrate into the Great Lakes and New England through the end of the week. The signal remains strong for this high to become well-placed for a synoptically-induced cold air damming event by Saturday. The onset of rainfall would contribute strongly to development of a wedge, so the nature of such a CAD event will be tied to how the forecast for rainfall, as described above, evolves over the coming days.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions with mostly clear skies should continue thru the 06z TAF period. Mtn valley fog/low stratus is likely to develop again in the usual areas overnight, but like the past few mornings, it is not expected to reach KAVL. Otherwise, winds will be light (generally 5 kts or less) and continue to favor a NWLY to NLY direction thru most of the period. They will become light and VRB to calm later this evening at most sites.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist thru Thursday. Showers and associated restrictions may return by Friday. Mtn valley fog/low stratus remains possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.