textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances are trending downward for the weekend.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Quiet weather before daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday into early next week. Humidity and above normal temperatures remain through at least Monday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Quiet weather before daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Friday into early next week. Humidity and above normal temperatures remain through at least Monday.

Generally quiet weather as upper flow remains flat with weak surface high pressure over the southeast. By Friday, a frontal boundary approaches the area, but looks to get hung up west of the CWA. However, a series of shortwaves traverse through the region and peak on Saturday, increasing shower and thunderstorm chances. Guidance depicts rather weak forcing and instability, decreasing confidence for any severe weather on Saturday. Latest guidance also decreases PoP chances for Friday and Saturday, likely locking onto the above mentioned hindrances. Moisture starts to tick back up when surface winds become more S/SW Friday night, elevating the humidity once again. All this to say, shower and thunderstorm chances are highest Saturday, with probabilities tapering Sunday and much drier by Monday.

Additionally, the heat is not quite done with the South as widespread mid 90s peak on Friday for locations east of the mountains. However, height falls with the approaching boundary helps to somewhat cool temps a couple degrees. But, humidity keeps heat indices in the upper 90s with a few locations feeling spotty low 100s in the typical areas.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Very simple TAFs for the 00z issuance. Periods of mainly high-based Cu under areas of thin Ci thru the period. Winds will be light, mainly out of the SW. Still expect decent amount of mountain valley fog developing overnight, and will continue with a tempo for some LIFR conditions at KAVL before daybreak. VFR conditions expected elsewhere. Guidance shows at least isolated convection possible Friday aftn, but coverage appears too low to warrant any mention in any of the TAFs at this time.

Outlook: More widespread showers and thunderstorms expected across the area on Saturday, then scattered aftn/eve convection expected Sunday and Monday, mainly in the mountains. Morning fog/low stratus will be possible each day, especially in the mountain valleys.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.