textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures trend colder and precipitation chances trend higher for the end of next week.

Updated aviation section for 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Seasonably dry and cool weather returns this weekend, with frost likely Saturday and Sunday nights. 2. Temperatures warm again into midweek before another possible frontal system increases precipitation chances and ushers in much colder weather late in the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Seasonably dry and cool weather returns this weekend, with frost likely Saturday and Sunday nights.

High pressure remains locked in place for the duration of the forecast period, keeping temps cool and conditions dry. Overnight temps dip into the 30s for the mountains and a portion of the NC Piedmont Saturday and Sunday nights. Patchy frost is possible given the clear skies and radiational cooling. At least Frost Advisory conditions appear likely across the I-40 corridor both nights, with lesser potential to the south. (Note: the growing season ends across the entire area when a freeze occurs on or before November 11, whichever occurs first.)

Key message 2: Temperatures warm again into midweek before another possible frontal system increases precipitation chances and ushers in much colder weather late in the week.

Temps start to trend warmer and back to normal as the airmass modifies through at least the middle of next week. Long range guidance depicts a kink in the upper flow, with a strong ridge forming off the west coast and an amplifying trough towards the central and eastern CONUS by mid week. At the surface, stout high pressure looks to spill out from Canada and spread south/eastward. Models also depict the possibility of a stronger upper low across the Great Lakes that could bring the next chance for precip to the area. It's too early to pin down any details, but the models do hint at the possibility for a stronger and colder air mass to spill into the CONUS and make a run for the CWA toward the end of Day 7. This has the potential to bring colder temps and increase precip chances, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR at all terminals through the period. Some low cloudiness is noted in the westerly upslope areas near the TN border, with some cloud bases right around the MVFR/VFR threshold. Some of this cloudiness had moved up the French Broad Valley, but was struggling to get as far as KAVL. For now, a SCT at 035 will be included there, until such time as it looks more like a ceiling will reach them. Wind should stay gusty from the NNW there. Outside of the mtns, all terminals should be N to NE through the period. A few high-based stratocu remained close to metro CLT and will be included.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected into early next week. The exception will be a continued potential for morning mountain valley fog.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.