textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Drier conditions are expected to persist through at least early Sunday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase significantly early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Drier conditions are expected to persist through at least early Sunday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances increase significantly early next week.

A weak cold front will continue to move southward over our area this morning, allowing drier/more stable air to spread over the CWA in tandem. This should keep our weather dry thru most of the weekend, although there is still a slight chance of some isolated to scattered diurnal convection over the NC mountains and far NE Georgia on Sunday afternoon/evening. More than likely, most of this area will remain dry on Sunday. Temperatures today should remain a few degrees below normal for mid to late June, with values warming to near-normal for Sunday.

Better shower and thunderstorm chances return on Monday, especially across the NC mountains, as a cold front approaches from the west. The front is still progged to move thru our area Monday night into Tuesday with weak sfc high pressure pushing into our fcst area in its wake on Tuesday. Sct to widespread convection is looking more likely Monday aftn/evening over our area, and there appears to be some potential for severe storms as the front moves thru, however we are not outlooked yet by SPC. Breezy southwest winds are expected ahead of the front on Monday as the sfc pressure gradient tightens across the Carolinas. Wind speeds/gusts should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but they could certainly blow around unsecured objects. A more typical summertime pattern eventually develops behind the front for the latter half of the work week, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms and near normal temperatures expected.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites thru the 06 TAF period. Relatively dry air will continue to spread further south across our area overnight as a broad area of high clouds streams over the region from the west. Low stratus and/or fog is likely to develop in the mtn valleys overnight, but is expected to be confined to the valleys west of KAVL. Winds will go from weak and NLY to light and VRB to calm overnight. Outside the mtns, they will eventually swing around to W/SW Saturday afternoon with light speeds around 5 kts. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected thru at least early Sunday. Sct afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may return on Sunday, but chances look more favorable on Monday and Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.