textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation discussion was updated for 12z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Widespread showers associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur will move east of our area this morning. Although portions of the Upstate and Piedmont could see some additional brief heavy showers, flooding is not expected. 2. Following a period of dry and pleasant weather on Saturday and the first half of Sunday, we'll settle back into a more typical summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Widespread showers associated with the remnants of Tropical Storm Arthur will move east of our area this morning. Although portions of the Upstate and Piedmont could see some additional brief heavy showers, flooding is not expected.

The remnants of TS Arthur are currently making their way over our area early this morning. What's left of the system will move off the Atlantic Coast later this morning as a cold front pushes into our CWA in its wake. We have seen little if any lightning across our fcst area over the past few hrs, and it's looking like we probably won't see any more the rest of the morning owing to a lack of sfc-based instability across our area. As such, SPC has removed their Day 1 Slight/Marginal Risk areas from our CWA.

As for any lingering flash flood threat, the 1.5 to 2"+ PWATs are still in place across most of our non-mtn zones thanks to low-lvl SWLY flow pulling in deep moisture from the Gulf. This will allow for some additional moderate to heavy downpours over the next few hrs. So far however, only our NE Georgia and western Upstate zones have received QPF amounts that approached our expectations. The rest of our fcst area has generally received less than an inch of precip thus far. Although it's still raining across most of our non-mtns zones, it's looking like we'll get significantly less QPF over most of our area than previously expected. Overall, the higher rain rates have remained to our south and southeast for much of this system. Any lingering showers should move east of our area by mid-morning with mostly dry conditions expected for the rest of today.

Key message 2: Following a period of dry and pleasant weather on Saturday and the first half of Sunday, we'll settle back into a more typical summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

By Saturday, a weakening frontal zone will be located just to our south. The latest model guidance keeps our fcst area dry with the influence of building sfc high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic keeping any convection to our south. High temperatures on Saturday should remain a few degrees below normal. On Sunday and Monday, a series of weak mid/upper shortwaves will move out of the central Plains and pass just to our north. This should help keep any severe risk to our north/northwest Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with only typical diurnal convection expected.

By mid-week, the upper pattern will become more amplified as upper trofing deepens over the Midwest and heights fall across our area in response. There's still not much ensemble consistency wrt any specific impulses for the latter half of the week, but the pattern may produce a shortwave or two that moves over our area later in the week, possibly increasing our severe chances. Temperatures should remain near-normal thru most of the week.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Most of the showers have now moved east of our fcst area over the past few hrs. Any cig restrictions should improve during the first few hrs of the period as flow turns NWLY/downslope and sfc low pressure moves east of our area and VFR conditions should return at most terminals by 12 to 14z, with lower cigs hanging on a bit longer at KCLT. The rest of the period should be VFR and mostly dry. A few showers and/or thunder- storms are possible this afternoon/evening, mainly across the SC upstate, but chances appear too low to mention in the TAFs at this time. Outside the mtns, winds will turn W and then NW in the wake of the sfc low this morning/afternoon. They will eventually become more NLY later this evening. At KAVL, winds will pick up from the NW by mid-morning with gusts around 20 kts for the rest of the day.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected Friday night thru early Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms will return each day Sunday into early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.