textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Temperatures are trending a bit warmer later this week.

We will closely evaluate whether a Frost Advisory might be needed for some valley areas, tonight into Monday morning.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry high pressure will persist over the region thru the weekend and most of the coming week. Temperatures will climb back above normal over the next few days, with highs approaching 80 degrees by the end of the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry high pressure will persist over the region thru the weekend and most of the coming week. Temperatures will climb back above normal over the next few days, with highs approaching 80 degrees by the end of the week.

The dry weather is expected to continue for the next several days across our area. A stout upper ridge remains centered and nearly stationary over the Mississippi River Valley to our west. This has created an upper-level blocking pattern across the eastern 2/3 of the CONUS. This blocking pattern will gradually dissipate by the middle of the coming week, however the Southeast will remain under broad upper ridging thru the end of the week.

At the sfc, broad high pressure over the New England coast will permit a cold-air damming wedge to linger thru the remainder of the weekend before the parent high breaks down tonight into Monday. Radiational cooling conditions actually become a bit better tonight as winds slacken more overnight, and some valley fog appears possible in the mountains and river valleys of the NW NC Piedmont. A few mountain valleys and more sheltered I-40 corridor locations also may see temps dip into the 30s which could result in patchy frost; day shift will evaluate whether this is likely enough to warrant a Frost Advisory...but note, the frost-freeze program is shut off for the season in a portion of the NC mountains from I-26 northeast.

On Tuesday, a secondary cP airmass will settle over the Northeast, reinforcing the low-level dry air and bringing cooler temperatures for the middle of the week. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to climb back above normal by the end of the week as the high shifts eastward and off the Atlantic Coast.

At this time, it's looking like there could be some fire weather concerns during the middle of the coming week. Based on the current fcst, the lower RH values don't really overlap with the stronger winds and/or wind gusts. Nonetheless, if this trend changes over the next few days, we could have a day or two with elevated fire danger over part(s) of our area. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry high pressure north of the terminal area maintains an easterly low-level flow, on which patchy stratus or stratocu are already seen at low VFR level. Similar to what occurred early Saturday, multiple waves of these clouds are expected and any formation near or just after daybreak is likely to be at MVFR level. A cig appears likely enough to warrant TEMPO MVFR at KAVL and KHKY, but not enough to warrant one for KCLT. Diurnal cu development at MVFR to low VFR level also warrants FEW-SCT mention lasting into afternoon. Winds will be breezy and primarily NE, possibly going ESE or even SE at times at KAVL in the early afternoon. SKC should return late afternoon to evening; lighter winds are expected tonight with less potential for stratus to advect in, though better radiational cooling conditions suggest some fog may develop in mountain and river valleys after 06z, but presently looks unlikely to affect KCLT.

Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions are expected all week. Mtn valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.