textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front keeps shower and thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A cold front keeps shower and thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

Rain chances remain as a trough continues to move eastward through Friday. The heaviest rain moves out with the first round concluding by daybreak. Given the amount of thick cloud cover during the daytime hours and continued lack luster response, not anticipating much outside of a few rumbles of thunder and brief periods of heavy rain through morning. For the remainder of Thursday, a lull looks to occur ahead of a stronger cold front approaching from the west. At best, slight chance (15-35%) for rain this afternoon and into the evening hours. Overnight, model guidance ramps up precip chances as the frontal boundary pushes toward the CWA. Highest PoP chances appear to be along and east of the I-85 corridor. QPF response zooms into minimal amounts.

At this time, the cold front looks to push into the area by Friday morning and through the rest of the day, ushering in drier and cooler air. Surface high pressure behind the front as the trough lifts northeast, shuts down precip chances for the weekend and into next week. With the drier air, moisture gets cutoff and crisper, more Fall temps return. Guidance hints at a return to overnight lows dipping into the 30s for the mountains and 40s elsewhere from Saturday night onward. Long range model guidance hints at the possibility of rain chances returning after day 7, but confidence is very low at this time.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Poor conditions will continue through much of TAF period at all terminals. A cold front is slowly approaching the area with copious amounts of moisture streaming across the region. This has fostered the development of showers, low stratus and patchy fog. Conditions have varied anywhere from MVFR to LIFR and this will continue for a while. Showers will likely linger through much of the overnight with IFR to LIFR ceilings common along with periodic reduced visibility from rain and/or patchy fog. Conditions will be slow to improve through the morning with IFR ceilings likely hanging on until early afternoon. Eventually, ceilings are expected to lift back to MVFR and perhaps a several hour window of VFR by late afternoon/evening. More stratus is possible heading into early Friday. Winds will remain out of the southeast through the period and a rouge low-end gust or two cannot be discounted.

Outlook: Consistent improvement is not expected until late Friday, when the cold front moves to our east and ushers in VFR conditions for this weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.