textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

SYNOPSIS

An area of low pressure will move east across the region tonight into Saturday bringing with it a round of rainfall. Dry and warmer conditions return Sunday, lingering through the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/

As of 1200 PM Friday...

Key Message #1: Mostly cloudy and dry today with well above normal highs.

Upper flow turns more zonal today ahead of an approaching low pressure system as dry conditions linger through early this evening. Southwest surface winds will allow highs to climb ~10-13 degrees above normal despite mostly cloudy skies. Highs across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains will climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with highs across the higher elevations ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s. Wind gusts across the northern North Carolina mountains will gradually decrease this afternoon, diminishing by the early evening hours.

Key Message #2: A low pressure system brings rain tonight into Saturday, with cooler highs Saturday afternoon as in-situ cold air damming develops.

Quasi-zonal flow remains aloft through tonight before an upper trough tracks across the Southeast on Saturday. At the surface, the low pressure system will track across the forecast area tonight into Saturday bringing much needed rain. Unfortunately this will not be a drought busting rain. The highest rainfall amounts are expected across northeast Georgia and the South Carolina Upstate (0.25" to 0.50"), with lower amounts across western North Carolina (0.10" to 0.25"). Mostly cloudy skies and precipitation will allow lows tonight to end up ~15-20 degrees above normal. In-situ cold air damming will lead to much cooler temperatures on Saturday, with highs ranging from the lower 40s to lower 50s across the forecast area. Dry conditions will gradually develop from west to east Saturday afternoon into early Saturday evening as the low pressure system tracks pulls away from the forecast area.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/

As of 1100 AM Friday:

Key message: Dry Sunday and Monday with above-normal temperatures.

Residual lower cloudiness Saturday night will give way to developing sunshine on Sunday thanks to a scouring llvl flow boosting maximum temperatures to as much as two categories above climo. After a subtle impulse brings a period of higher level clouds across the region Sunday night, sfc hipres center then builds into the Atlantic seaboard on Monday. With the resultant sfc ridging nosing southwestward into the lee of the Appalachians, this push of cooler air will temporarily drop max temperatures back closer to normal to start off the work week.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

As of 1130 AM Friday:

Key message 1: Well above-normal temperatures continue through late next week.

Beneath quasi-zonal flow aloft, warming southwesterly llvl flow will boost Tuesday's lower elevation maximums into the 60s. Upper heights atop the SE CONUS nudge further upward on Wednesday with the latest NBM 50th percentile progging a few piedmont 70 deg F readings.

NBM maximums decline a tad during the latter half of the work week as some models develop a weak CAD regime, but even the NBM 25th percentile is progging lower elevation max temperatures in the 60s continuing.

Key message 2: Light showers possible Tue night and Wed for the mountains. Better chances for showers for late week regionwide.

Token small pops for the NC mtns were retained for Tues night into Wednesday as very weak baroclinic zone activates acrs the Tenn valley before quickly diminishing as support for showers departs into the NE CONUS. It remains to be seen on just how far east into the Appalachians that appreciable central CONUS energy develops by Friday in order to erode the suppressive upper ridging leading to an uptick in shower chances.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR and dry through this evening before conditions gradually deteriorate tonight into Saturday morning as a low pressure system tracks across the forecast area. Rain chances will increase from west to east late this evening into late tonight, with rain sticking around most of the day Saturday. Dry conditions will gradually return from west to east behind the departing system Saturday afternoon into saturday evening. Wind direction will be SW east of the mountains through tonight, although KHKY should go calm overnight, before toggling NE around daybreak Saturday. Winds at KAVL will remain NW this afternoon before going calm to light and VRB this evening into Saturday morning. Wind speeds will gradually increase throughout the day Saturday, ranging from 6-9 kts by late morning/early afternoon.

Outlook: Cig and vsby restrictions linger through Saturday night before dry and VFR conditions return Sunday morning. Dry and VFR lingers through the middle of next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.