textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Weekend is trending slightly warmer, but remains near the norm.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A few scattered showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms through tonight. 2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A few scattered showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms through tonight.

An upper low off the northeast coast swings the trough off the east coast as strong ridging shifts eastward. At the surface, high pressure continues to amplify southward. A few benign showers and thunderstorms are possible through a portion of the overnight hours as a last hurrah before dry conditions settle in. Current guidance shows the better chances (60-70%) for showers and thunderstorms peaking over the mountains, especially the far western zones. QPF response in these locations is also minimal, with anywhere from 0.01- 0.25" possible. If a storm gets going, there could also be locally higher amounts. East of the mountains has a slight chance (15-35%) for seeing a brief shower as well. Nothing severe is anticipated given the northeast winds, drier air and decreased instability.

Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday through the weekend.

From Wednesday onward, the weather conditions flip back to a quiet pattern through at least the weekend. Height rises with a ridge sliding over the southeast and strong surface high pressure amplifying over most of the eastern CONUS, shunts rain chances. Long range guidance shows the potential for rain chances returning Day 7, but this is generally model guidance clinging to climatology so confidence is rather low. However, looking at the general pattern, there could be a chance. For now, expect dry conditions and warming temps returning to what is normal for this time of year through the weekend.

AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period. A few -SHRA and VCSH could occur, mainly at KAVL this afternoon before drier air moves in and reduces these chances. Winds east of the mountains have low-end gusts of 15-20kts, which should diminish by 00z. Wind direction prevails NE through the period and remains light to VRB, especially for the mountains terminals. Outside of any shower development, no vsby/cigs restrictions are anticipated at this time.

Outlook: Dry conditions return and VFR remains into the weekend, but some potential for daily morning mountain valley fog/low clouds.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.