textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated to remove the Freeze Warning and Frost Advisory.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Another dry day, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for northeast Georgia. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon through tonight. 2. Well above normal temperatures return by Wednesday with dry conditions lingering through Friday night. Critically low relative humidity will return each afternoon keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday. 3. A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Another dry day, with a Fire Danger Statement in effect for northeast Georgia. Otherwise, seasonable temperatures are expected this afternoon through tonight.

The center of dry low-level high pressure will move from the central Appalachians this morning to off the Mid-Atlantic coast this evening, turning winds from light NE this morning to light southerly this afternoon. Nevertheless, the air mass will remain very dry, and widespread RH in the 20-30% range is expected this afternoon. A Fire Danger Statement will be issued for northeast GA, where only one critical meteorological criteria is required for said product. Otherwise, temperatures will be within a couple of degrees of normal through tonight.

Key message 2: Well above normal temperatures return by Wednesday with dry conditions lingering through Friday night. Critically low relative humidity will return each afternoon keeping fire weather concerns around through Friday.

Upper ridging will build into the Southeast through Thursday before gradually breaking down Friday into Friday night. At the surface, high pressure will remain over the region keeping dry conditions around through Friday night. This pattern will allow well above normal high temperatures to return each afternoon Wednesday through Friday. With well above normal lows expected each night, there will be no frost or freeze concerns. Minimum relative humidity values will fall below 30% each afternoon/early evening, keeping fire weather concerns around. Wednesday looks like the day of most concern with breezy winds returning area-wide. With northwest downsloping also expected on Wednesday, there is the potential for minimum relative humidity values to fall below 25% across most of the GSP CWA during afternoon/early evening. Thus, fire danger statements may be needed for portions of the forecast area on Wednesday.

Key message 3: A cold front brings rain chances as well as a cooling trend this weekend but temperatures should remain above normal. Rain chances may linger into early next week but confidence is low with this being towards the end of the forecast period.

Weak upper troughing tracks across the Southeast this weekend. At the surface, a cold front will approach out of the west throughout Saturday before tracking across the Southeast Saturday night into daybreak Sunday. The front then appears to stall over the region on Sunday. This system will give us our next shot at rain. However, 18Z global models and the latest NBM only depict light rainfall amounts with this system over the weekend, with the highest QPF concentrated over the North Carolina mountains. For now it appears that rainfall totals would remain around half an inch or less for most locations. The LREF shows a 30% to 50% chance for areas along the NC/TN border to exceed half an inch of rainfall. The LREF has only a 10% to 20% chance of rainfall exceeding half an inch across the rest of the GSP CWA. Although a cooling trend will develop this weekend, temperatures will remain above normal.

Depending on how far south the front stalls over the region on Monday, rain chances and cooler conditions may stick around. However, confidence is low as global models generally agree that some degree of brief drying will occur on Monday as upper ridging returns.

AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: A very dry air mass will remain in place across the Terminal Forecast Area through this TAF cycle, thus maintaining VFR/mostly SKC conditions...with only some high/mostly thin clouds expected later today. Light NE or light/variable winds this morning are expected to transition to light southerly this afternoon...then more to the SW overnight. The SW winds are expected to increase to around 10 kts by late Wed morning.

Outlook: VFR and dry through the work week thanks to high pressure. A frontal system may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.