textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Brief rain shower chances have slowed to Saturday, but confidence is very low.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures warm through the weekend and mostly dry conditions expected, with the potential for brief rain showers across the mountains Saturday. 2. Warm temperatures continue Monday followed by a cold front and cool down Tuesday through mid week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Temperatures warm through the weekend and mostly dry conditions expected, with the potential for brief rain showers across the mountains Saturday.

A persistent and strong ridge out west is slow to breakdown, keeping the southeast in a NW downstream pattern through the weekend. High pressure at the surface and continuous WAA over the next few days is the main feature. By Friday, a weak area of low pressure from the north dissipates, sending an even weaker cold front toward the area. Guidance depicts the frontal boundary barely reaching the northern mountains before mixing out. This brings a few areas of slight chance (15-20%) PoP on Saturday, mostly confined to the mountains. Confidence is very low on this, but a brief shower is possible. Nothing significant or impactful expected. With the increased moisture from the south, dewpoints also increase, making it feel more like Spring should. Temperatures climb over the weekend, with mid 80s likely by Sunday.

Key message 2: Warm temperatures continue Monday followed by a cold front and cool down Tuesday through mid week.

An anomalous ridge over the Desert Southwest will flatten and weaken by early next week as perturbed northern stream flow becomes established from the Pacific Northwest to the Ohio Valley. One more warm day with highs in the upper 60s to low 80s is on tap for Monday ahead of an advancing lead shortwave trough. This trough will send a surface cold front across the area through the day on Monday. This will mainly be a dry frontal passage with the better forcing for ascent displaced farther north and an overall dearth of moisture. A few isolated showers will be possible along the Tennessee border where mechanical ascent is maximized, but that will be the exception and not the rule. Temperatures cool back to near seasonal averages behind the frontal passage on Tuesday with a weak impulse potentially bringing a few showers to the region late Tuesday into Wednesday. Temperatures gradually recover and warm back into the upper 60s to low 70s by Thursday as heights rise in advance of a deeper longwave trough ejecting out of the Rockies.

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail through the entire TAF period. No restrictions to vsby/cigs anticipated. Winds are light and mostly S/SW through the evening, before becoming VRB to calm overnight. Some sites like KCLT go VRB during the afternoon but will keep the S direction. Winds are slow to come up Friday morning and vary between VRB and S/SW again. Either way, winds will be light and not be an issue during this time.

Outlook: VFR through the weekend. Possible restrictions to start the week as a cold front may cross the area.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.