textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated for 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry through Saturday before rain chances return late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry through Saturday before rain chances return late this weekend into early next week. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

Ridging dominates the upper pattern while surface high pressure remains in control at the surface over the eastern United States through Saturday. This will act to keep well above normal temperatures and dry conditions around through Saturday. Classic cold air damming looks to develop ahead of the main precipitation shield on Saturday, allowing cooler (but still above normal) highs to return.

Rain finally returns sometime late Saturday night into Sunday. Confidence on exact arrival time remains low but confidence is fairly high (for now) that rain should hold off until late Saturday night for most locations, which is good news for trick-or-treaters. Classic cold air damming will transition to hybrid cold air damming sometime late Saturday night into Sunday as the main precipitation shield arrives. Temperatures appear to be warm enough for all liquid precipitation at this time. Cold air damming combined with widespread cloud cover and rain may allow highs to briefly drop below normal on Sunday. Rain chances may linger through early next week with the potential for cold air damming to transition to in- situ as the center of the parent high pushes offshore. NBM chance PoPs look good for now on both Monday and Tuesday. Would not be surprised if the NBM continues to trend cooler for highs Sunday through Tuesday, especially if the wedge lingers.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry through the TAF period. Cirrus will gradually increase in coverage overnight becoming BKN in many locations. This may limit some mountain valley fog, but wouldn't be surprised if it forms in some locations but looks unlikely at KAVL. Low stratus and fog may make a run at KCLT from the east, but guidance in uncertain if it makes it that far. Still, it will be something to watch overnight. Any mountain valley fog should dissipate by mid morning, but Piedmont low stratus could linger until noon. NE wind continues overnight, light and variable at KAVL, then increases in speed during the day Wednesday. KAVL will see light SE wind developing.

Outlook: Dry through Saturday. Cig and vsby restrictions are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday morning. VFR should return by Thursday afternoon, lingering into Saturday. However, mountain valley fog/low stratus may develop each night. Rain returns late Saturday night into Sunday, bringing restrictions back to the terminals.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.