textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg
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WHAT HAS CHANGED
Updated Aviation Discussion.
Adjusted PoP trends this evening based on radar and latest guidance.
KEY MESSAGES
1. A few scattered showers and isolated mountain thunderstorms through tonight. 2. Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday through the weekend.
DISCUSSION
Key message 1: Scattered weakening convection moves south of the area later this evening.
A couple of areas of weakening convection will slide south across the area through the evening. Can't rule out a rumble of thunder early this evening. Precip chances are better over NC with the convection becoming more isolated as it moves into the Upstate and NE GA. Clearing and drying conditions move in overnight.
Key message 2: Dry conditions return with a warming trend Wednesday through the weekend.
From Wednesday onward, the weather conditions flip back to a quiet pattern through at least the weekend. Height rises with a ridge sliding over the southeast and strong surface high pressure amplifying over most of the eastern CONUS, shunts rain chances. Long range guidance shows the potential for rain chances returning Day 7, but this is generally model guidance clinging to climatology so confidence is rather low. However, looking at the general pattern, there could be a chance. For now, expect dry conditions and warming temps returning to what is normal for this time of year through the weekend.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
At KCLT and elsewhere: Weakening convection over the mountains will cross KAVL at the start of the TAF period with possible restrictions. Another area of weakening convection will move over KHKY but chance of restriction is lower. This activity looks to weaken and move west of KCLT this evening. Can't rule out a shower at the SC sites early this evening either. Skies clear overnight behind this convection with clear skies through the day Wednesday. NE to NW wind, SE at KAVL, becomes more solidly N to NE overnight into the day Wednesday. Wind goes SE during the afternoon at KAVL.
Outlook: Dry conditions return and VFR remains into the weekend, but some potential for daily morning mountain valley fog/low clouds.
GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.
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