textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Precipitation chances continue to trend higher for Sunday.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions will persist over our region through at least Friday with temperatures warming above normal. Rain chances increase this weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions will persist over our region through at least Friday with temperatures warming above normal. Rain chances increase this weekend.

Dry weather should continue thru the work week as upper ridging remains over the Southeast. At the surface, broad high pressure continues to linger over most of the eastern CONUS as profiles remain dry and temperatures continue their gradual warming trend. Another cP airmass will settle over the Northeast today/tonight, reinforcing the low-level dry air and bringing marginally cooler temperatures for Wed. Nonetheless, temperatures are expected to climb back above normal on Thurs and Friday as the high shifts eastward and off the Atlantic Coast.

Another reinforcing/back-door cold front is expected to arrive early Saturday and re-establish some amount of cold-air damming across the western Carolinas. At the same time, multiple embedded upper shortwaves will approach our area from the west along with a broad area of deeper moisture. This pattern should allow for an increase in low-level isentropic ascent across our area and produce some widespread showers, most likely on Sunday. At this time, the majority of the long-range guidance suggests that most of our CWA will receive less than an inch of rain over the weekend.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Primarily VFR. Mountain valley fog appears likely to develop again this morning which and affect KAVL, where TEMPO was lowered to IFR this issuance, but shortened to only 2 hours near daybreak. Several guidance sources now suggest patchy fog will form near KCLT, possibly causing IFR vsby/cig at least briefly. IFR is climatologically unlikely, but a couple of nearby sites have already briefly gone to IFR since late evening. With confidence too low for IFR, went with a TEMPO for MVFR. Beyond this morning, should be a quiet period with light mainly N to NE winds except for a period of SE winds at KAVL.

Outlook: Mostly VFR conditions through the work week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus possible each morning. Restrictions may return for the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.