textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation discussion was updated for 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Isolated showers will dissipate this evening before drier conditions return tonight into the weekend. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Isolated showers will dissipate this evening before drier conditions return tonight into the weekend. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return next week.

A cold front will continue sinking south across the forecast area this evening, with associated isolated SC Piedmont showers expected to dissipate by late evening, as drier/stable air overtakes the southern third of the CWA. Dry weather will linger through most of the weekend, although the 00Z Euro shows diurnal convection returning across mainly the western zones Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM appears to be in line with the Euro, with chance PoPs in place across the western zones. Confidence on Sunday PoPs is low as rest of the global models show mostly dry conditions continuing.

Better shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week, especially across the North Carolina mountains, as a cold front approaches out of the west on Monday before tracking across the GSP CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible on Monday ahead of the front but confidence is low as global models are not in agreement on where exactly the highest instability will develop. Breezy southwest winds can be expected ahead of the front on Monday as well but gusts should remain well below advisory criteria (<45 mph). A more typical summertime pattern develops behind the front for the rest of the workweek, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected.

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue at all TAF sites thru the 06 TAF period. Relatively dry air will continue to spread further south across our area overnight as a broad area of high clouds streams over the region from the west. Low stratus and/or fog is likely to develop in the mtn valleys overnight, but is expected to be confined to the valleys west of KAVL. Winds will go from weak and NLY to light and VRB to calm overnight. Outside the mtns, they will eventually swing around to W/SW Saturday afternoon with light speeds around 5 kts. At KAVL, winds will remain light and VRB to calm thru the period.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected thru at least early Sunday. Sct afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may return on Sunday, but chances look more favorable on Monday and Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.