textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Winds gusts increased Sunday and Monday.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A dry air mass settles into the western Carolinas for Sunday behind a weakening cold front. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue. 2. A series of storm systems will bring several rounds of rain chances through the week. Confidence in timing and any severe potential remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A dry air mass settles into the western Carolinas for Sunday behind a weakening cold front. Seasonable temperatures and dry conditions will continue.

Other than some lingering sprinkles, showers have largely ended across the CWA, with a cold frontal boundary now south of I-85 and a weak upper shortwave axis centered east of I-26. Most of the CWA is still beneath a blanket of thick cloud cover...though some clearing is already evident on satellite imagery over northeast Georgia and the southwestern NC mountains.

Cloud cover will only slowly scour out overnight, with most guidance depicting only slow clearing from west-to-east through daybreak, as well as lingering stratocu in the mountain valleys. Patchy fog, dense in some places, has already been observed, and should continue for much of the night in locations where clearing does occur. Don't currently expect enough coverage to need a dense fog product, but...will nonetheless need to closely monitor obs over the next few hours.

Dry air will continue to settle into the area today, allowing skies to slowly clear once the sun comes up. Though lower dewpoints will be ushered in by the front, postfrontal CAA appears weak to the point of being almost negligible, and so for most locations highs today should be scarcely a category cooler than yesterday's. The exception will be portions of the NC Piedmont east of US-221, where somewhat stronger CAA this afternoon will drive highs a category or so cooler than yesterday. Meanwhile, despite ample dry air in the low levels, there would look to be too much subsidence for decent dewpoint mixing this afternoon...and the wetting rain received in most locations should further temper any fire weather issues for Sunday.

Key message 2: A series of storm systems will bring several rounds of rain chances through the week. Confidence in timing and any severe potential remains low at this time.

Dry and mild high pressure remains over the area Monday. Then a series of short waves move through the quasi-zonal flow over the area Tuesday and Wednesday. A cold front approaches the area Tuesday. Pre-frontal convection moves into the late Monday night or Tuesday morning. While sbCAPE is minimal, there is muCAPE along with some bulk shear. It's too early to tell whether any of this could be severe, but it's something to keep an eye on. Better precip chances move in late Tuesday night into Wednesday as a low pressure area forms along the front, which moves north of the area, but helps push the front in from the west. The overall flood threat remains low with QPF potentially significant enough to bring some drought relief. The front moves south of the area with dry high pressure on Thursday. Then, the wave train picks back with with shortwaves and associated low pressure centers moving over or near the area Friday and Saturday with precip chances returning. Confidence in the overall pattern is increasing, especially through Thursday, the details are still uncertain with low confidence overall Friday and Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: NNW wind continues at most terminals, with the cold front nearly to our south, and SHRA having mostly concluded across the area. A round of weak upglide is underway across the Upstate beneath a weak shortwave, but associated showers are already pushing toward the eastern tier of the terminal forecast area. Further showers aren't expected to develop tonight, but both the hi-res and statistical guidance are increasingly keying on potential for IFR ceilings and patchy IFR (even isolated LIFR) fog in locations that clear up overnight. Generally think denser fog will be limited to the first half of the night...while low ceilings could persist through daybreak. By morning, expect presently NNW winds to shift to the NE, and remain that way throughout the day as skies steadily clear. VFR is expected from daybreak through the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Monday. Another cold front on Tuesday could bring rain chances and possible flight restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.