textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for our entire fcst area and is in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM this evening.

The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cool and dry airmass will remain over our area today. Although winds will be weaker today than Saturday, lingering dry air will keep fire danger elevated across the area. 2. An upward trend in temperatures and moisture next week with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A cool and dry airmass will remain over our area today. Although winds will be weaker today than Saturday, lingering dry air will keep fire danger elevated across the area.

Cool and dry sfc high pressure is currently centered just to our NE over the Atlantic Coast. Good radiational cooling conditions overnight and this morning should allow lows to bottom-out about 6 to 10 degrees below normal and below freezing over most of the mtns and near freezing over portions of the NC Piedmont. The high will steadily move east and further offshore today and tonight, allowing low-level flow to become SELY to SLY this afternoon. This should allow temperatures to warm a few degrees compared to Saturday, especially across the mtns and along the I-77 corridor, although they are still expected to remain a few degrees below normal for late March. Dewpts will increase as the day wears on, especially across our southern zones, however the latest guidance has been trending lower wrt dewpts this afternoon with the majority of our fcst area seeing minimum RH values around 20% for a few hrs today. The NC mtns will likely see values drop below 20% this afternoon. Winds will be weaker today, especially outside of the mtns. Nonetheless, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for our entire fcst area due to the lingering dry airmass and notably dry vegetation across the area. It is in effect from 11 AM until 8 PM.

Key message 2: An upward trend in temperatures and moisture next week with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances increasing.

The southeast remains under a steady upper ridge from Monday through at least mid-week, before a pattern change emerges. At the surface, high pressure remains offshore and amplifies, keeping a much deeper warm sector across the region. The CWA remains under the influence of the western fringe of this persistent area of high pressure, with rain chances suppressed through at least Tuesday. By midweek, an upper disturbance out west allows for an area of low pressure to form. Guidance drags a cold front toward the southeast. In response to this next potential system, the stout area of high pressure recedes eastward, increasing rain chances. PoP starts to ramp up Wednesday onward with mainly typical diurnally driven convection. QPF response at this point is light but does spread out through the end of the forecast period. With the moisture and increased rain chances, this could help decrease fire concerns. Additionally, temperatures tick upward ahead of the next front and could see highs 10-15 degrees above normal.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 06z taf period. Skies will remain mostly clear thru the afternoon with high clouds spreading over the area this evening and into Monday. Winds will remain light and VRB to calm at most sites overnight and into the morning. They will pick up from the SE by the early afternoon and remain SLY to SELY for the rest of the day. They will weaken again later this evening.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions are expected to continue into early next week. Moisture will increase Tues into Wed, increasing the chances for convection and associated restrictions.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.