textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry and seasonally warm through Friday, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The risk of any significant weather is low.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry and seasonally warm through Friday, then a strong cold front brings much cooler temperatures over the weekend. The risk of any significant weather is low.

Mid/upper anticyclone will gradually slip east from the northwest Gulf Coast and become elongated across the Deep South and Southeast through midweek. Height rises and deep insolation from mostly sunny skies allow temperatures to climb around ten degrees above normal each afternoon through Friday. Afternoon highs will be in the mid to upper 80s across the Piedmont and foothills, while the higher elevations remain in the 70s.

The aforementioned anticyclone will continue to track eastward in response to a digging shortwave trough that moves southeast from central Canada. An attendant cold front approaches the region Friday as a result. However, very little in moisture return from the Gulf keeps this boundary starved as it pushes across the CWA Friday without much fanfare. Northwesterly upslope flow on the backside of the front should develop a few showers along the immediate Tennessee Border Friday night and early Saturday morning. A broad continental area of high pressure is expected to set up shop over the eastern CONUS over the upcoming weekend. In response, temperatures drop around 20 degrees for afternoon highs and overnight lows. Overnight lows are forecast to drop into the 30s across western North Carolina and upper 30s to low 40s across the Upstate and northeast Georgia. There is some frost potential over the weekend and will have to evaluate throughout the week. Temperatures will gradually rebound by early next week.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect VFR conditions this period outside of mountain valley and river fog. Mountain valley fog will dissipate by mid morning but looks to remain away from KAVL. River valley fog is near KAND and has briefly floated over the terminal. For now, kept it VFR with a TEMPO MVFR. Light SW wind develops by afternoon, NNW at KAVL, along with some high based stratocu. Light and variable to calm wind develops by evening. Mountain valley fog is expected once again.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions. The only exception will be the potential for mtn valley fog overnight/each morning.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 10-13

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 83 1969 44 1907 63 2017 29 1917 1954 KCLT 91 1954 50 1977 68 1883 35 1964 KGSP 87 1954 54 1906 65 2017 29 1988 1954 1926

RECORDS FOR 10-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 82 1928 51 1907 64 1954 25 1988 KCLT 87 2021 56 1922 68 1883 32 2006 1940 1881 KGSP 86 1985 57 1907 67 1954 30 1988 1928

RECORDS FOR 10-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 1897 52 2002 60 2017 27 1907 1970 1928 KCLT 88 1985 53 2009 66 1985 30 2006 KGSP 86 1985 53 2002 65 1985 31 1907 1941 1970

RECORDS FOR 10-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 1897 49 1954 63 1928 29 1939 KCLT 87 1925 58 1937 68 1947 35 1939 1925 KGSP 85 1935 53 1937 67 1925 32 1907 1911 1892

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.