textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued Tuesday for the North Carolina Piedmont and Northeast Georgia from 12 PM to 8 PM.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Tuesday from 12 PM to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia. 2. Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Fire weather concerns continue amid a dry and stagnant weather pattern. A Fire Danger Statement is in effect from Tuesday from 12 PM to 8 PM for the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia.

With fire weather concerns remaining elevated on Tuesday, another Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger was issued for Tuesday across the North Carolina Piedmont and northeast Georgia from 12 PM to 8 PM. Although steady SW winds will continue, they'll advect very little additional moisture into the area. Dewpoints should hover within a degree or two of what we saw this afternoon, and temperatures will increase at least a category...so RH on Tuesday should bottom out about as dry as today, despite marginally less dry air aloft to mix down.

The remainder of the week looks like on-and-off fire wx will remain an issue. Near-critical RHs expected each afternoon through this weekend, with little if any wetting rain and ongoing D2 to D3 drought, will drive continued potential for wildfire development and spread...so more Fire Danger products are probably in the cards.

Key message 2: Dry and hot through Saturday with daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain. Seasonable but very dry Monday.

An upper upper ridge and surface Bermuda high will bring summer-like conditions to the area into Saturday. A cold front does approach the area on Thursday but is mainly deflected by the high. Can't rule out isolated showers for the mountains late Thursday or Thursday night, but overall chance is low. While the heat will be summer- like, and near daily record highs, the humidity won't. Relative humidity values will be in the 25 to 30 percent range each afternoon, keeping the potential for high fire danger in place, even winds on the lighter side. That said, gusty winds may develop Thursday and again on Saturday, which could make fire weather conditions worse. There are still questions regarding the amount of moisture available ahead of the cold front on Sunday. The GFS continues to low rain chances for the mountains but little to no rain elsewhere as it keeps the low level flow more westerly limiting any Gulf moisture inflow. The Canadian has trended in this direction as well. The ECMWF remains on the wetter side, but favors NC over the Upstate and NE GA. The model blend is similar to the ECMWF, so chance PoP is limited to NC at this time. Therefore, questions remain on the potential for any significant drought relief. Temps cool on Sunday but remain well above normal. Temps fall to near normal behind the front on Monday, but the airmass is very dry with relative humidity falling back to critically low levels.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Continued dry and VFR through the period. SSW winds to become light this evening with just some CI and AC. Throughout Tuesday just some CI and developing high based CU is expected. Winds will remain SSW and develop low-amplitude gusts in the afternoon.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions persist through at least Wednesday.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082. SC...None.