textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Only change was updating Key Message 1 as the remnants of Arthur have pushed east.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Drier conditions have returned this morning but a cold front will trigger some isolated convection this afternoon and evening across the eastern zones. 2. Following a period of dry and pleasant weather on Saturday and the first half of Sunday, we'll settle back into a more typical summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Drier conditions have returned this morning but a cold front will trigger some isolated convection this afternoon and evening across the eastern zones.

Drier conditions have returned this morning. A cold front will continue tracking across the forecast area today, allowing some isolated convection to develop mainly along and south of I-85. Chances look best across the eastern SC Upstate and southern NC Piedmont. This activity is not expected to be severe but an isolated sub-severe storm cannot be entirely ruled out. It will be cooler today but highs will still end up near normal to a few degrees above normal. The front pushes south of the GSP CWA this evening, with dry conditions returning behind it. Cooler lows can be expected behind the front, ending up near normal to a few degrees below normal.

Key message 2: Following a period of dry and pleasant weather on Saturday and the first half of Sunday, we'll settle back into a more typical summertime pattern, with warm, muggy conditions. Showers and thunderstorms are expected each afternoon from Monday onward.

By Saturday, a weakening frontal zone will be located just to our south. The latest model guidance keeps our fcst area dry with the influence of building sfc high pressure across the Mid-Atlantic keeping any convection to our south. High temperatures on Saturday should remain a few degrees below normal. On Sunday and Monday, a series of weak mid/upper shortwaves will move out of the central Plains and pass just to our north. This should help keep any severe risk to our north/northwest Sunday, Monday, and Tuesday, with only typical diurnal convection expected.

By mid-week, the upper pattern will become more amplified as upper trofing deepens over the Midwest and heights fall across our area in response. There's still not much ensemble consistency wrt any specific impulses for the latter half of the week, but the pattern may produce a shortwave or two that moves over our area later in the week, possibly increasing our severe chances. Temperatures should remain near-normal thru most of the week.

AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Cig restrictions should gradually improve through mid-morning. The rest of the period should be VFR and mostly dry. A few showers and/or thunder-storms are possible this afternoon/evening, mainly across the eastern SC upstate and the southern NC Piedmont, but chances appear too low to mention at KCLT, KGSP, and KGMU at this time. Outside the mtns, winds will turn W and then NW in the wake of the sfc low this morning/afternoon. They will eventually become more NLY later this evening. At KAVL, winds will pick up from the NW by mid-morning with gusts around 20 kts for the rest of the day.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions are expected Friday night into early Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms return each day Sunday into early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.