textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No significant changes.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Widespread rainfall tapers off through tonight across most of the area, as drier air returns behind the system. 2. Dry with a warming trend starting Monday with near record temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Shower chances creep back into the forecast by the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Widespread rainfall tapers off through tonight across most of the area, as drier air returns behind the system.

An area of low pressure continues to progress eastward, bringing widespread rainfall to the entire forecast area. Currently, the heavier rainfall rates are occurring along and east of the I-85 corridor, as forecasted. Locations in this corridor are showing measured amounts of 0.25-0.75 inch so far with more on the way. Current QPF guidance shows areas east of the mountains receiving another 0.25-0.5 inch before dissipating, with locally higher amounts up to another inch in locations east of the I-77 corridor. Storm total amounts are still on target for 0.75-1.5 inch, with the higher amounts east of the mountains. Current CAM guidance has the rainfall tapering off from the southwest to the northeast during the early evening hours and through midnight. Behind the low, drier air ushers into the area and quickly clears out any remnant precipitation and cloud cover. Given the ongoing drought conditions, not anticipating hydro issues outside of some ponding on roadways during heavier periods of rainfall. Temperatures today struggle to warm as the in-situ wedge remains in place, keeping values in the mid to upper 40s east of the mountains. Expect a quick rebound behind the system with dry conditions and temps in the 60s to start the week.

Key message 2: Dry with a warming trend starting Monday with near record temperatures by Thursday and Friday. Shower chances creep back into the forecast by the weekend.

The timing of the influx of deep layered dry air remains on track for Monday with sunshine returning boosting maximums to 8-10 deg F above the mid-February climo. Upper heights atop the SE CONUS will rise on Tuesday, with the cwfa remaining under flat ridging aloft though the end of the workweek. With continued warming expected, near record high temperatures may be reached both Thursday and Friday. Token small shower chances have been introduced for Thursday as despite being parallel to the upper flow, weak baroclinic zone may dip just far enough south to support the slight chance pop. Shower chances tick upward Friday into Saturday as an upper trough axis swinging across the Great Plains into the Mississippi Valley helps to push boundary into and eventually through the cwfa, ushering a return to seasonable temperatures for next Sunday.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Ongoing restrictions this afternoon as rain continues to move across the entire area. MVFR/IFR for low cigs/vsby prevail at all terminals through at least 00z. RA is expected to taper off from west to east, with gradual improvements in cigs/vsby overnight, especially for terminals east of the mountains. 1SM of vsby is possible 18-21z at KCLT/KGSP/KHKY so a TEMPO is in place. Winds prevail out of the NE throughout the period for sites east of the mountains, with KAVL becoming NW around midnight. Drier air moves in overnight and could bring low-end gusts of 15kts at KCLT before daybreak and for the remainder of the TAF period. KCLT is also expected have MVFR cigs linger longer into Monday, but should become VFR near the 09z-12z time range. After that, VFR conditions return at all terminals and prevail.

Outlook: VFR and dry conditions persist through the end of the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.