textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated aviation discussion for 12z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry for the next seven days, with near to below normal highs through weekend before above normal highs return next week. Breezy northeast winds will develop east of the mountains over the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry for the next seven days, with near to below normal highs through weekend before above normal highs return next week. Breezy northeast winds will develop east of the mountains over the weekend.

Overall, the weather continues to look benign across our region for the next seven days, with dry conditions persisting. The new guidance shows the upper level blocking pattern holding on longer into early next week, which is an interesting change, but ultimately just prolongs the quietness because we are in the favorable part of the block. The high-amplitude mid/upper ridge axis to our west supports a parent sfc high that drifts from the St. Lawrence valley this morning to the northern Mid-Atlantic region Sunday, resulting in a somewhat unusual cold air damming wedge with mostly clear sky (aside from patchy stratus east of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, lasting through late morning). Thus, temps today in the area east of the mtns will be only five degrees below normal. The northeast wind will be the only clue that we are under a wedge by that time. For tonight, there has been some concern about frost potential in the mtn valleys, but the trend in the fcst has low temps creeping upward a bit as we maintain a northeast wind, so only patchy frost is indicated in the headwaters of the French Broad River. Temps modify upward a degree or two for Sunday and continue on a warming trend through Tuesday when we end up a category above normal. If there's going to be any low-RH problems, it will probably be Tuesday. Another northern stream sfc high begins to influence our region by Wednesday with another dry wedge, so temps cool back down briefly before climbing above normal again for the end of the week.

AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Strengthening East Coast high pressure will maintain primarily NE winds over the region through the period, picking up to 10-12 KT most of today with a few gusts of 15-18 kt. KAVL may experience periods of VRB. MVFR cigs developed on the NE'ly flow earlier this morning along the east-facing Blue Ridge, which has caused periodic cigs at KHKY, KAVL, KGMU. These appear to be somewhat transient but the threat of cigs will last through 14-15z, hence TEMPOs at those sites. Winds will weaken tonight, veering aloft slightly while the subsidence inversion persists. Hence another stratus event is possible near daybreak Sunday. KCLT, KHKY, KAVL all get a FEW mention of MVFR level clouds at that time; given the reoriented flow, KCLT probably has a better chance of a cig tonight vs. Sat morning.

Outlook: Breezy NE winds linger east of the mountains through Sunday. Dry and VFR through the middle of next week outside of the potential for mountain valley radiation fog/stratus each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.