textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Fire weather concerns increasing for Monday afternoon.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions persist with increased fire weather concerns Monday afternoon. 2. Gradual warming in temperatures and continued dry conditions expected through the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions persist with increased fire weather concerns Monday afternoon.

The dry airmass and warming temperatures Monday afternoon ticks up fire weather concerns. 15-20 mph winds above the boundary layer could enhance afternoon mixing, lowering dewpoints and drying out RH values into the 20-30% range. Though the mountains could see RH values dip, wind gusts of 15-25mph appear to remain east of the mountains. Additionally, temperatures are mild, but still upper 60s and low 70s expected east of the mountains. These ingredients do elevate the risk for fire concerns, especially east of the NC mountains. For this, we have issued a Fire Danger Statement for northeast Georgia from 12 PM to 7 PM this evening.

Key message 2: Gradual warming in temperatures and continued dry conditions expected through the week.

Pattern over the next 7 days remain mild and benign. Off the eastern coast, guidance spins up a low pressure system while an a ridge out west amplifies with the southeast stuck in the middle. Surface high pressure remains the dominant feature over the area through the end of the forecast period, keeping much drier air locked in place and rain chances away. As for temperatures, there is a snail's pace uptick in daily highs, but should be at or slightly above normal by midweek. What this looks like is pleasant Autumn temps in the 60s for the highest elevations of the mountains and low 70s elsewhere. Overnight lows, given the dry air and lack of moisture, dip into the crisp range of 40s each night and patchy upper 30s at the highest peaks of the mountains. Overall, weather is quiet, dry and finally reflecting a semblance of the Fall season.

AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail thru the TAF period. Light north/northeast winds, increasing with some low-end gusts at KCLT from late morning to late aftn. A few low-end gusts cannot be ruled out at any of the other TAF sites this aftn.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions expected for most of the week. Isolated mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.