textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler temps remain through tomorrow before temperatures return to normal by mid-week. Dry and quiet conditions persist through at least Friday. 2. Active weather returns over the weekend, with rain possibly arriving by Saturday, and continuing on Sunday. Confidence on details remains low at this time.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Cooler temps remain through tomorrow before temperatures return to normal by mid-week. Dry and quiet conditions persist through at least Friday.

Sprawling surface high pressure now extends from the southern Great Plains all the way to the upper Great Lakes, with a broad area of northerly flow driving comparatively cool and dry air into the forecast area.

The next several days look to feature quiet, unperturbed conditions across the western Carolinas as the high migrates across the Great Lakes and into the upper Mid-Atlantic, pushing offshore by Tuesday night into early Wednesday. For our part, we can expect a light return flow to develop on the rear of the high by Tuesday evening, such that Tuesday's temperatures still look to be a solid two categories below normal...but Wednesday temperatures will likely top out near-normal. By Thursday and Friday, highs should climb to at least normal...possibly even a degree or two warmer. Wednesday and beyond, steady moisture return will allow dewpoints to climb, and in general some mugginess to return to the region.

Key message 2: Active weather returns over the weekend, with rain possibly arriving by Saturday, and continuing on Sunday. Confidence on details remains low at this time.

By late in the week, ensembles increasingly support the development of an upper low over the northern Gulf. As ridging becomes established over the eastern Seaboard, this low should eventually begin to lift north, up the Mississippi Valley and to our north by Sunday. As a consequence, a good deal of moisture may be swept into the Southeast, while the low itself should prompt low-level upglide to intensify across the area. As a consequence, we could be looking at a round of rain potentially as early as Saturday afternoon...though there remain significant timing differences between various model solutions.

Guidance is in good agreement on rain persisting into Sunday, within a hybrid CAD configuration. Temperatures should fall short of normal as a result. Confidence remains low on the forecast for early next week...with some ensembles featuring the low's trailing cold front eroding CAD as early as Monday, and others featuring any such boundary stalling, and leaving the remnant wedge untouched.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail across all terminals through the TAF period. Clouds move out overnight and should give way to SKC/SCT250 into Tuesday. Winds remain E/NE and light through most of Tuesday before turning SE at KAVL after 16z and KCLT near Tuesday evening. KAND toggles between SE/ENE overnight. Light winds 5-10kts. No other vsby/cig issues.

Outlook: VFR conditions prevail through the end of the week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus are possible each night.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.