textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have trended slightly lower for Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Updated for the 06Z Aviation Discussion.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry conditions continue today followed by another weak cold front that may bring a few more showers and thunderstorms to the western Carolinas Wednesday. Dry and briefly cooler Thursday and Thursday night, followed by a warming trend Friday through the weekend.

A weak southern stream shortwave slides along the Gulf Coast today with any associated precipitation displaced well south of the area in the vicinity of a stalled frontal boundary across far southern Georgia into Florida. The Southern Appalachians will remain within a cool and dry pattern following yesterdays frontal passage. By Wednesday, a northern stream trough drops out of the Midwest/Great Lakes and across the Ohio Valley into the Appalachians. Modest height falls will overspread the region as the trough attempts to transition from a positive tilt to neutral. Despite sufficient forcing for ascent, this system will be somewhat moisture starved as the poor trough orientation will not be as conducive for moisture return from the Gulf of Atlantic ahead of the associated frontal boundary. Nonetheless, a narrow band of moisture pooling should reside ahead of the boundary with a band of showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm or two approaching the mountains Wednesday afternoon. The front slides east through the evening, but coverage of showers and storms east of the mountains remains uncertain with only isolated to widely scattered precipitation expected at this time. Unfortunately, any rain that falls with this fast moving system will be negligible and won't help to noticeably alleviate ongoing drought conditions.

Thereafter, upper ridging builds across the region and gradually flattens by the weekend with rising heights. This will foster a return to warm and dry conditions with temperatures climbing back into the upper 80s to low 90s by the weekend. A deep western trough is progged to dig over the Great Basin through the weekend with broad southwest flow draped across much of the Great Plains. Several embedded perturbations within this flow regime may send a couple rounds of convection across the Tennessee Valley and towards the area, but confidence in this is fairly low at this time range.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Satellite imagery and METARs still show clouds at various levels across the area at time of 06z TAF issuance. An area of mainly MVFR cigs have been banked up against the eastern Escarpment and may occasionally produce an MVFR cig at KAVL thru the pre-dawn hours. Meanwhile, guidance still hints at an IFR stratus deck, possibly mixed with patchy fog, may form across the NW NC Piedmont, which warrants a TEMPO at KHKY for possible LIFR conditions. It looks like whatever forms should stay north of KCLT, but trends will be monitored closely thru daybreak. And finally, a VFR-level stratocu deck persists across the Upstate. Overall, these clouds will dissipate fairly quickly after sunrise, leaving mainly a few Cirrus across the Piedmont and FEW-SCT Cu across the mountains thru the aftn. Winds will be out of the NE to ENE across the Piedmont thru about midday, then toggle to SE and remain fairly light.

Outlook: Dry conditions persist through Wednesday morning. A clipper-type low may cross to our north late Wednesday, but guidance suggests rainfall will be paltry with this system, and it's questionable whether any flight restrictions will develop. Otherwise, VFR and quiet weather the rest of the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.