textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Highs have trended 3-6 degrees cooler for Sunday thru Tuesday. PoPs continue to trend lower for Thursday and Friday.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 18z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry weather is expected through much of next week with above normal highs returning by midweek. Below normal lows stick around into early next week, gradually warming to above normal lows later in the week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry weather is expected through much of next week with above normal highs returning by midweek. Below normal lows stick around into early next week, gradually warming to above normal lows later in the week.

A large coastal low is now expected to wobble westward into NJ on Sunday, then stall and meander around the NYC area into Tuesday, before finally exiting east off the New England coast. This trend has resulted in a more persistent dry, NWLY flow atop the forecast area thru Tuesday. The latest National Blend of Models has dropped max temps 3-6 deg on average across the CWFA Sunday thru Tuesday, while lows remain slightly below normal. Given the expected mixing of dry air and downslope flow, dewpts were lowered with the MOS guidance, as NBM has a known high-bias. So RH values may drop into the 25-35% range each aftn, especially east of the mountains. Otherwise, no precip is expected with mostly clear skies, and potential mountain valley fog each morning.

Later in the week, upper ridging will build in across the region in the wake of the aforementioned low, with sfc high pressure over the Southeast. Moisture return will be slow to ramp up across the region, but temps are expected to warm to a few deg above normal for the latter half of the week. The latest global models have trended slower with onset of mentionable PoPs, and the NBM has trended lower for Thursday and Friday. Saturday is still looking like our next best rain chances, as a southern stream upper trough moves into the plains, and allows SWLY return flow to increase across the Southeast.

AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected to continue thru the 18z TAF period. Mountain valley fog is expected to form in roughly the same areas as last night, which means not likely to affect KAVL Sunday morning. Otherwise, skies should remain mostly clear thru the TAF period with winds favoring a N to NW direction thru the period. KAVL will have gusts in the 15-20 kt range this aftn, and likely again Sunday aftn.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist into the middle of next week, however mtn valley fog/low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.