textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Max temperatures have trended down a degree or two for Friday through Monday, but still near daily record highs.

PoPs have trended up slightly for Friday and Saturday due to potential diurnal convection, while trended down 10-20% for Sunday and Monday due to a less aggressive cold front than previous forecast.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the rest of the workweek, then rain chances increasing over the weekend through early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Well above normal temperatures and mostly dry conditions through the rest of the work week, then rain chances increasing over the weekend through early next week.

Above normal temperatures starts today, as an upper ridge begins to build and sfc high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Low clouds and patchy fog should burn off fairly quickly this morning, leaving mostly sunny skies by early aftn. Highs will be 10-15 deg above normal. The pattern strengthens on Thursday, with patchy fog and mild morning lows then dry conditions with highs a few deg warmer than Wednesday's highs.

A persistent Bermuda High pattern will dominate our weather for the medium range and possibly well into next week. The latest medium range model consensus seems to have trended toward a little more flattening of the upper ridge that becomes established along the East Coast over the weekend, thanks to shortwave energy passing thru the Great Lakes to New England. Despite this, PoPs have trended down a little for SUnday and Monday, as a cold front fails to make inroads from the NW into the forecast area. Max temps have generally trended down a deg or two each day, which may be due to the slightly less-amplified upper pattern. Despite this, we still are looking at both highs and lows around 15-20 deg above normal, which will approach daily records (see climate section below). As for precip chances, it's hard to gauge how well the NBM is handling the anomolous pattern for early March. Dew points climb into the upper 50s to lower 60s, which may produce up to 1000 J/kg or more of sbCAPE each aftn. This may be enough for at least isolated to scattered diurnal convection. However, the forcing will be lacking, and the moisture may be overdone given the drought conditions across the Southeast. Either way, it doesn't look like QPF will make much dent in the drought over the next week.

AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: MVFR cigs starting to spread across the area as the Upstate sites and KCLT are currently MVFR and that should remain locked in until around daybreak. Some of the guidance scatters out this cloud deck before daybreak and others keep it going a little bit past daybreak. KAVL and KHKY are likely to receive IFR vsbys with less cloud cover around to allow fog to develop and could become dense between 09z and 13z. Expect VFR to return at all terminals by mid-morning as the cloud deck scatters. Fair weather cu expected during the afternoon as well. Southeast to southwesterly winds are expected through the period. A return of MVFR cigs are likely overnight tonight and included a mention of this development in the last line of the 06Z TAFs.

Outlook: Springlike weather pattern over the next several days. Cannot rule out patchy overnight fog/stratus each night. A cold front may bring showers and associated restrictions for the weekend.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 03-05

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 78 1955 20 1960 60 2004 5 1960 KCLT 84 1955 31 1960 62 1955 12 1960 1880 KGSP 80 1976 31 1960 61 2004 12 1960 1905 1976 1961

RECORDS FOR 03-06

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 78 1908 28 1960 58 1961 5 1960 KCLT 80 2022 33 1901 62 1961 10 1960 KGSP 79 1974 37 1948 63 1961 16 1960 1915 1901

RECORDS FOR 03-07

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 82 1974 23 1920 61 1956 15 1960 KCLT 85 1974 30 1899 63 2022 14 1899 1956 KGSP 83 1974 36 1920 62 1961 13 1901 1901 1956

RECORDS FOR 03-08

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 81 1974 23 1996 57 1921 8 1920 KCLT 84 1974 36 1989 59 1946 16 1920 KGSP 84 1974 35 1899 56 1921 14 1901 1899

RECORDS FOR 03-09

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 80 1974 22 1932 57 1964 8 1996 KCLT 83 2009 30 1960 62 1925 16 1996 1974 1921 1925 KGSP 85 2009 29 1960 60 2009 16 1996 1921

RECORDS FOR 03-10

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 76 1974 29 1932 58 1903 10 1996 1932 KCLT 82 1974 36 1924 59 1903 17 1932 KGSP 84 1974 39 1924 58 2009 17 1932 1997

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.