textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to the public forecast.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the 06z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Patchy dense fog possible across the mountain valleys and the North Carolina foothills through daybreak. Below normal highs return today before above normal highs develop this weekend and linger into next week. Dry conditions persist through late next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Patchy dense fog possible across the mountain valleys and the North Carolina foothills through daybreak. Below normal highs return today before above normal highs develop this weekend and linger into next week. Dry conditions persist through late next week.

The wedge will gradually erode through the early morning hours as flow turns more N/NW. The main concern through daybreak will be the potential for patchy to locally dense fog to develop, mainly across the mountain valleys and across the North Carolina foothills. Confidence on fog formation is higher for the mountain valleys and lower for the foothills.

Cyclonic flow remains aloft over the eastern US through early next week before upper ridging builds over the Southeast mid to late week. At the surface, high pressure will assert itself over much of the eastern CONUS through much of next week. A cold front will approach out of the west middle of next week but moisture associated with the front should remain west of the GSP forecast area through at least Day 7. The latest NBM has chance PoPs returning by Thursday but the latest global models are all in agreement that dry conditions should persist through at least Thursday. Today will be the last day of below normal highs before above normal highs return this weekend and linger through next week. Lows the next few nights will be cool and crisp, perfect for early fall.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: We've still got lingering MVFR cigs over some of the Upstate terminals, as well as, KHKY and KAVL. Over the next few hrs, these cigs should continue to sct out over the Upstate and KHKY. The main exception will be the mountain valleys, where most of the latest guidance continues to develop fog overnight and into the morning. It's looking like the fog/low stratus will reach KAVL, thus I have prevailing IFR restrictions beginning around 08z with a TEMPO for LIFR from 09 to 13z. Restrictions there should dissipate by 13 or 14z this morning. KHKY and the Upstate terminals could also see some brief restrictions overnight and into the morning, but confidence is fairly low. Otherwise, a clear, dry day with N to NE winds is expected today/tonight with winds becoming light later tonight.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist into the middle of next week, however mountain/river valley fog/low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.