textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Gradual rebound in temperatures and continued dry conditions expected through the week, with a return to near normal temperatures by midweek.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Gradual rebound in temperatures and continued dry conditions expected through the week, with a return to near normal temperatures by midweek.

Surface high pressure continues to nose into the region as the center shifts over Nova Scotia through tonight. Winds continue to remain somewhat elevated as the Nor'easter off the North Carolina Coast keeps a relatively tight pressure gradient over the region through this evening. Clear skies overnight should promote decent radiational cooling outside of the boundary layer struggling to fully decouple and a weak nocturnal inversion in place. As a result, temperatures will remain 5-10 degrees below normal, but struggle to reach the freezing mark outside of sheltered valleys in the mountains. Continued dry air entrainment from the north keeps dewpoints on the lower side of things and holds frost potential at a minimum. Thus, decided to forgo the issuance of a Frost Advisory or Freeze Warning for tonight in the zones that are still activated. Can't rule out patchy areas of frost in the NC Piedmont/foothills where temperatures dip into the mid and upper 30s, with slightly higher dewpoints compared to the mountains with upper 20s to lower 30s.

The closed upper low supporting the Nor'easter gradually shifts northward and becomes almost quasi-stationary offshore the Mid-Atlantic through midweek. At the same time, another continental surface high will shift from south-central Canada into Ontario and Quebec by midweek. This setup helps to reinforce drier air into the area as high pressure continues to control our sensible weather. The overall synoptic pattern is expected to remain pretty benign throughout the forecast period. Currently, there are no mentionable PoPs in the forecast for the next 7 days and temperatures gradually rise each afternoon. Afternoon highs return to near or slightly above normal values by Tuesday and remain this way through the rest of the upcoming workweek.

AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period. Light north/northeast winds continue overnight into tomorrow with gusts continuing to subside. Gusts will be notably more infrequent on Monday, but a few low-end gusts cannot be ruled out at any given terminal.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions expected for most of the week. Isolated mountain valley fog and low stratus will be possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.