textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances have slightly increased for Thursday night.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Hot and muggy conditions persist through the end of the week, with slightly cooler temps behind a cold front this weekend. 2. Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and persist through at least Saturday as drier conditions arrive by Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Hot and muggy conditions persist through the end of the week, with slightly cooler temps behind a cold front this weekend.

The area remains underneath weak upper flow, maintaining a broad warm sector and higher dewpoints. A strong trough to the north expands southward, but guidance continues to keep the southern edge out of the area, shunting better forcing for any convection today and into Thursday. As for temperatures, summer marches on with values remaining in the 90s through Friday. Model guidance is a bit skeptical on the exact timing of a potential cold front pushing through the area. Could be as early as Friday night and as late as Saturday night. Regardless of timing, there is general consensus for a weak frontal boundary to bring a small amount of relief from hot temps and muggy conditions by the weekend and into next week.

Key message 2: Showers and thunderstorms return Thursday and persist through at least Saturday as drier conditions arrive by Sunday.

As a series of upper lows churn over Canada over the next few days, a persistent trough remains stretched out over the eastern portion of the CONUS. The better forcing remains further to the north for today and Thursday. However, as the trough dips further southward, a weak frontal boundary looks to sweep through the area by the end of the week. Model guidance is not too keen on the exact timing, but does agree on a front moving through and ushering in drier air into Sunday and beyond. Ahead of the front, shower and thunderstorm chances tick up Thursday through Saturday, especially in the mountains and NC Piedmont. Though an isolated storm or two could become strong, widespread severe weather is not expected at this time. Behind the front, drier air filters in and shunts rain chances into the new work week.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions prevail at all sites through the TAF period. Light NE winds become calm and VRB overnight, before picking up out of the SW late Thursday morning. No cig/vsby restrictions aniticpated, with high cirrus and a few pop up cu during the afternoon as ususal.

Outlook: Afternoon showers and thunderstorms return on Thursday through Saturday. Low stratus and fog possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.