textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Monday trending drier with lower relative humidity.

Aviation section updated for 12Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front keeps shower chances around the western Piedmont and northern Upstate through late morning before dry conditions return this weekend. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front on Saturday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A cold front keeps shower chances around the western Piedmont and northern Upstate through late morning before dry conditions return this weekend. Cooler conditions arrive behind the front on Saturday.

A strong upper low churns over the Great Lakes and drags a cold front across the region later today, bringing an end to the humid conditions. Along with the front, lingering showers and a possible thunderstorm or two could occur along and east of I-85. Brief, but heavy rainfall is possible as the front edges through the CWA. Not anticipating anything severe and shower activity dwindles as a much drier and seasonably appropriate air mass spills into the southeast. Highs today peak ahead of the front in the mid 70s east of the mountains before mixing out overnight. Along with the frontal passage, wind gusts pick up over the highest peaks, but remain well below any wind advisory criteria. These gusts should peak tonight and diminish into Saturday. Afterwards and into next week, dry conditions persist and temps remain cooler during the day and a mix of 30s (mountains) and 40s (elsewhere) each night.

AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: The main concern continues to be the redevelopment of showers with a few embedded thunderstorms over the northern Upstate, on track to move past to the southeast and east of KCLT, but not right at the terminal. This latest round of activity should move off to the northeast by 14Z. In the mean time, a ceiling and/or vis restriction would be a good bet based on observations around the area. The location of a quasi-stationary boundary over the western Piedmont suggests that it will be a few more hours before we start to scatter out. Elsewhere, flight conditions should improve from the west as the flow comes around more downslope. Restrictions should come to an end as another boundary drops in from the NW later this morning. Might see occasional wind gusts from the N/NW at KAVL behind the front early this afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week. The exception will be an eventual return of mountain valley fog.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.