textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00Z TAFs issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Isolated showers will dissipate this evening before drier conditions return tonight into the weekend. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Isolated showers will dissipate this evening before drier conditions return tonight into the weekend. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return next week.

A cold front will continue sinking south across the forecast area this evening, with associated isolated SC Piedmont showers expected to dissipate by late evening, as drier/stable air overtakes the southern third of the CWA. Dry weather will linger through most of the weekend, although the 00Z Euro shows diurnal convection returning across mainly the western zones Sunday afternoon and evening. The latest NBM appears to be in line with the Euro, with chance PoPs in place across the western zones. Confidence on Sunday PoPs is low as rest of the global models show mostly dry conditions continuing.

Better shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week, especially across the North Carolina mountains, as a cold front approaches out of the west on Monday before tracking across the GSP CWA Monday night into Tuesday. Severe storms are possible on Monday ahead of the front but confidence is low as global models are not in agreement on where exactly the highest instability will develop. Breezy southwest winds can be expected ahead of the front on Monday as well but gusts should remain well below advisory criteria (<45 mph). A more typical summertime pattern develops behind the front for the rest of the workweek, with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms expected.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Relatively dry air will continue gradually filtering through the Terminal Forecast Area from the north this evening, and this is expected to result in VFR conditions through the period across much of the area. Low stratus and/or fog is expected to develop across the mountain valleys late tonight, but this is expected to be confined to the valleys west and north of KAVL, and VFR is forecast at all TAF sites through the period. Gusty NW winds become light by late evening. Otherwise, generally light NW or light/vrbl winds are expected overnight, with directions coming around to the SW Sat afternoon.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions through at least early Sunday. Afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms may return as early as Sunday, but chances look better on Monday and Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.