textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Convective trends updated based on radar and latest CAM guidance.

The aviation forecast updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and continue through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and continue through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected early next week.

Scattered convection slowly diminishes in coverage this evening with isolated showers possible overnight. More in the way of low clouds expected overnight with patchy fog across the area and better coverage in the usual mountain valley locations.

Otherwise, the brief stint of drier weather comes to an end as the southeast gets wedged in between two areas of high pressure. An amplifying and stout ridge parks over the southwestern CONUS through at least Saturday. Downstream, a persistent trough dips and remains over the eastern portion of the country. Because of these synoptic features, a return to daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday and lingering into Saturday. Model guidance hints at Friday being the most active day as a wonky shortwave slides down the trough, suggesting some semblance of upper lift and support for an isolated strong or severe storm to arise. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms highly depend on the arrival time of said shortwave, indicating there could be more storms to watch. Main threat from these potential storms on Friday, and each day, is damaging winds. If enough instability is present and the atmosphere decides, small hail could occur in the deeper cores, but one shall see.

It's still summer, despite how much yearning for Fall is upon us all. Speaking of summer, the southwest CONUS looks to re-gift the region an unwanted present of heat once again. Long range guidance shifts the ridge eastward, raising heights and lowering morale in the southeast as temperatures tick upward. Given the open warm sector and ample moisture, higher dewpoints leads to undesirable heat indices after Monday. The search for a cold front is turning up empty handed, but hopefully not for too much longer.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection lingers around KCLT through 01/02Z. Can't rule out an additional cell moving over the other sites, but chance is lower. After the convection dissipates this evening, eyes turn toward the increasing potential for low clouds developing in the moist southerly flow. Have MVFR to IFR cigs developing toward daybreak with some spotty MVFR vsby. Better chance of IFR vsby a KHKY and KAVL, where LIFR vsby is possible. Restrictions should clear relatively quickly after daybreak. Another round of afternoon convection expected with PROB30s for all sites. Diminishing S to SE wind this evening becoming calm to light and variable all areas overnight. Light S to SW wind picks up during the day Thursday.

Outlook: Good diurnal coverage of SHRA/TSRA Friday and Saturday, with less coverage Sunday and Monday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.