textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Aviation section updated for 00z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A cold front keeps shower and possibly thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A cold front keeps shower and possibly thunderstorm chances around through Friday before dry conditions return this weekend. Highs remain above normal through Friday with cooler conditions afterwards.

Deep moisture remains over the area through Friday morning as a cold front slowly approaches the area. This keeps scattered showers, and possibly a few thunderstorms, in place tonight into Friday morning. QPF will generally be light, but some moderate rainfall is possible in any storms that develop. Low temps tonight will be up to 20 degrees above normal.

The cold front pushed through on Friday bringing in drier air and an end to the showers by afternoon, but highs remain around 5 degrees above normal as cooler air is delayed until Friday night.

Temps fall below normal for the weekend. Saturday night will be the coldest night but only slightly warmer Sunday night. Freezing temps will be possible for the NC foothills with frost possible for the NC Piedmont, potentially reaching the eastern Upstate as well. Dry conditions with a slow warming trend expected through next week.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Bands of very light SHRA may pass the terminals overnight but are likely to be of little impact if they occur. Patches of MVFR to locally IFR clouds are present mainly over western NC at issuance time, with SCT-BKN VFR decks elsewhere. Moist airmass will remain in place overnight; moist southerly flow aloft is expected to promote development of low MVFR to IFR clouds and cigs through the very early morning hours Fri. Drier air then advecting into the area as winds turn NW could promote some scattering/erosion of those clouds, though skeptical of significant improvement in cigs until after daybreak, with improvement likely to occur west to east whenever it occurs. Thus hung onto restrictions until 11-12z at KAVL/KAND but until 16z at KCLT. Fairly consistent signal for another round of SHRA to develop near KCLT in the 10z-16z timeframe, so maintained PROB30 as in previous TAF. NW wind shift at KAVL expected overnight, but no shift likely to occur until after daybreak elsewhere via diurnal mixing. Breezy NW winds and clearing skies by afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected this weekend into early next week. The exception will be an eventual return of mountain valley fog.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.