textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes to main forecast.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the impending 06Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Cooler temps with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday. 2. A pattern change for midweek could bring in cooler temps and drier conditions.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Cooler temps with daily afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances through at least Tuesday.

Height falls continue gradually through the weekend as high pressure migrates westward and weakens. What this means to the area are a reduction in these persistent hot temps, bringing the daily highs in the upper 80s for most of the region and very low 90s for a few of the more southern counties today. Sunday, slightly cooler air filters in and more widespread 80s to round out the weekend. A slight tick upward for Monday as summer temps cling to the southeast.

Additionally, the overall pattern for the CWA keeps the region in a fairly open warm sector, meaning moisture sticks around for the next several days. Despite the relatively weak upper flow, diurnally driven convection each afternoon through at least Tuesday is possible. Near term guidance, for what it's worth, depicts showers and thunderstorms diving southward from the mountains this afternoon and again, with less coverage, on Sunday. Given the open warm sector along with some instability, cannot rule out a few strong storms. The main hazard from any of these storms would be damaging wind gusts. Best chances and more widespread coverage is Tuesday, ahead of a stronger cold front.

Key message 2: A pattern change for midweek could bring in cooler temps and drier conditions.

Looking ahead to the next week, guidance is consistent with a pattern change, hinting at the potential for a real break in this stubborn summer heat. Long range models show a wonky upper pattern and potential rex block setting up by Wednesday. If this should emerge, the CWA could remain in the cool sector of the blocking pattern meaning much drier and cooler air moves in. This stronger cold front by midweek may be just the relief the area has been waiting for. Guidance keeps the cooler temps around into Day 7 and beyond. At this time, we are seeing lows in the 50s by the end of next week. Due to the drier air, rain chances drastically decrease after the frontal boundary passes. Let's get through the next few days of summer and get ready for a taste of Fall. Help is on the way, dear.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Winds pick up light and VRB, but should prevail N/NE by later this morning. Any BR should dissipate again at KAVL/KHKY by 13z. Lower VFR to MVFR cigs possible through early afternoon. TSRA possible at most sites this afternoon, prompting another PROB30, except at KCLT where confidence remains lower. VCSH may linger after 00z at KGSP/KGMU/KAND. May start to see low stratus and MVFR cigs and IFR vsby for the mountain terminals toward the end of the TAF period.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances continue each afternoon through Tuesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.