textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Some global models are backing off on the rain potential Sunday through Tuesday. As a result, the latest NBM has come in much lower for PoPs Sunday through Tuesday compared to previous runs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very low. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very low. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of Sunday.

Main change this forecast update is that the 00Z Euro and Canadian are trending dry Sunday through Tuesday, showing surface high pressure remaining in place over the East Coast which would act to shunt moisture south of the GSP forecast area. Meanwhile, the 12Z GFS continues to moisture returning as high pressure retreats northeastward but is trending drier and slightly later than previous runs. Thus, confidence on rain returning is now very low, especially with the NBM trending lower for PoPs Sunday through Tuesday. Above normal temperatures are expected through most of the period but near normal to just below normal highs may return briefly Sunday as cold air damming develops over the weekend. We should have another shot at rain middle of next week as a low pressure system approaches out of the west but guidance is all over the place in regards to timing so NBM chance PoPs look good for now.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR outside of the potential for mountain valley fog and low stratus overnight into early Thursday morning. Lingering cloud cover may limit fog/stratus development so confidence on restrictions developing overnight at KAVL remains low. Winds remain N/NE east of the mountains through the TAF period, ranging mostly from 5-12 kts today before lighter speeds return tonight into Thursday. Low-end, intermittent gusts should linger at KAND through the afternoon hours. Winds at KAVL should remain calm through much of the TAF period but may go occasionally go SE this afternoon. Most of the guidance has backed off on the potential for MVFR cig restrictions tonight into Thursday so do not have cig restrictions mentioned at the terminals for the 18Z TAFs.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus may develop Thursday night into early Friday morning. Rain and associated restrictions may return starting Sunday but confidence is now very low with global weather models trending drier Sunday through Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.