textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

The aviation discussion was updated for the 18z TAFs, otherwise no significant changes were needed.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Relatively warm late summer weather will persist through the week, with low risk for significant weather.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Relatively warm late summer weather will persist through the week, with low risk for significant weather.

The weather is still looking fairly quiet thru the week with a fairly low chance for any high impact weather. We have a back-door cold front moving down from the north later this afternoon/evening which could help produce a few showers, but that's about it.

An upper ridge builds eastward over our region over the next 24 to 48 hrs and helps keep the convective environment generally unfavorable/suppressed with most of the area remaining dry. With the fropa later in the day today, we get one more hot day with high temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We still have the poten- tial for some weak, dry, cold air damming as broad surface high pressure moves from New England on Tuesday to a position off the coast of New England and the Maritime Provinces on Wed. There could be some shallow moisture within the ELY low-level flow on Tues that helps keep temperatures around normal with some increase in low clouds, but there will be minimal forcing for precip and any appreciable moisture doesn't hang around for long. This should result in temps warming back above normal on Wed, with highs back in the lower 90s east of the mtns by the end of the week. As the airmass modifies and warms, we expect a return of high elevation scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms from Thurs thru next weekend.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to prevail thru the 18z TAF period. The main exception will be a few hrs of MVFR cigs over the Upstate sites and KAVL late tomorrow morning, and the potential for mtn valley fog and low stratus to reach KAVL overnight. Any fog/low stratus that does materialize should dissipate by 13z or so and the MVFR cigs should sct out around noon. Otherwise, winds will favor a N to NE direction this afternoon and then turn more E to NE this evening and strengthen a bit behind a weak backdoor cold front. Winds at KAVL should go light and VRB overnight and then toggle around to SELY later tomorrow morning.

Outlook: Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist thru the middle of the week. Shower chances and associated restrictions increase later in the week. Mtn valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning thru the week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.