textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Rabun and Habersham counties from noon until 8 PM today. An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for the rest of NE Georgia and is in effect from noon until 8 PM today.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. 1. Well-above normal temperatures continue with marginally higher humidity and gusty winds expected today. 2. Dry and hot into early next weekend with no drought relief in sight. Daily record highs could be in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday, which may be dangerous for vulnerable populations. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: 1. Well-above normal temperatures continue with marginally higher humidity and gusty winds expected today.

Broad upper ridging will flatten over the Southeast today as embedded upper shortwave energy moves up and over the ridge. At the sfc, broad high pressure will get pushed further off the Atlantic Coast by a large sfc low over SE Canada. The weak frontal boundary associated with this low will lay across our northern periphery this aftn/evening and eventually dissipate within the warm SLY low-level flow. There is a low-end chance for some sct showers just to our north this afternoon, but it's doubtful that any precip will reach our CWA. RH should rebound marginally today in response to slowly-increasing moisture from the south, but it's still expected to fall into 30 to 35 percent range during peak heating this aftn. In addition, winds will be a bit stronger today with low-end gusts of 15 to 20 kts likely across our area. Georgia forestry officials continue to be con- cerned over the very dry fuels across the state, and have re- quested that Red Flag Warnings and/or Fire Danger Statements be issued for most of the state today. As such, a RFW will be in effect for Rabun and Habersham counties from noon until 8 pm today, and a FDS will be in effect for the rest of our NE GA counties. NC/SC officials have not requested any Fire Danger Statements at this time.

Key message 2: Dry and hot into early next weekend with no drought relief in sight. Daily record highs could be in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday, which may be dangerous for vulnerable populations. A cold front may finally bring some drought relief Sunday, but that is more uncertain.

Southeast upper ridging and surface Bermuda high will set the stage for an early season Spring heat wave across the CWFA starting Tuesday through Saturday. This synoptic setup will deflect any shortwaves and boundaries across the region through at least Thursday. Temperatures on Tuesday will likely rise into the upper 80s to near 90, mainly outside of the mountains and remain relatively the same for Wednesday and Thursday with some locations possible reaching into the low 90s. A shortwave trough is shown traversing from the west and over the northern two-thirds of the East Coast late Thursday into early Friday as the upper ridge gradually breaks down in response. With dry antecedent conditions, there isn't much rainfall associated with the shortwave outside of the mountains, mainly along the immediate NC/TN border, so there are token PoPs for this area Thursday night. Otherwise, sharper ridging behind the shortwave quickly builds back into the CWFA Friday and Saturday, which will only boost the ongoing heat as temperatures rise into the low 90s, with some guidance suggesting mid 90s, putting daily record highs in jeopardy Tuesday through Saturday in the overall setup. The combination of high heat stress, lack of rainfall, and subsequent days of temperatures at 15-25 degrees above normal, ongoing drought conditions will worsen and the heat may become dangerous for the vulnerable populations. A cold front will approach the region Sunday and help cool temperatures off slightly and bring in an uptick in rain chances. However, guidance struggles on timing and the overall QPF response this far out, so confidence is low at this time, especially with the delayed nature of cold fronts moving into the CWFA on Day 7.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 06z TAF period. A very broad area of high clouds will persist overnight and into the morning, with some amount of dissipation expected by the afternoon. Winds will remain out of the S/SW thru the taf period with another round of low-end gusts expected during the afternoon/early evening. At KAVL the gusts will likely be more intermittent, thus I have limited them to a TEMPO group from 17 to 21z.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to persist thru at least the middle of this week.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017. INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.