textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

SYNOPSIS

Dry and warmer through Friday. A low pressure system brings rain to the area Friday night into Saturday before dry and warm conditions return Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/

As of 1222 AM EST New Year's Day:

Key Message #1: Weak cold front to bring gusty winds and snow flurries across the mountains during the morning hours.

A potent shortwave will shift across the Great Lakes and Northeast through the period, sending a weak backdoor front south towards the CWFA. Gusty winds develop in the wake of the boundary as the pressure gradient tightens. 925-850mb winds uptick to 30-40 kts, which supports a Wind Advisory in Avery County and above 3500' in Mitchell, Yancey, and Buncombe through noon today. Dry for the rest of the area, with a few high clouds streaming over head. Continued southwesterly winds will put overnight lows near-normal. 700-850mb frontogenesis also cranks up tonight, which will provide enough forcing to squeeze out a few snow showers over the northern mountains, near the TN border around daybreak or so, despite a very shallow moisture layer. Little to no accumulation is expected.

Key Message #2: Dry conditions with above normal temperatures to start out 2026.

The backdoor front will move into the CWFA during the daytime period, but is shown stalling while trying to make a push further south and becoming more diffuse through the end of the forecast period. Continued south to southwesterly flow at the surface and max insolation will lead to afternoon highs running 3-6 degrees above normal. Some variability will come in wind direction as the front tries to make its way southward, but that's about the only real impact across the CWFA. No fire weather concerns this afternoon as RH levels remain above 30% as dewpoints climb into the 20s and lower 30s. Increasing high clouds will move in from the west by daybreak Friday as we turn our attention to the southern stream system that will be over the Southern Plains by this time. Overnight lows will be at or slightly below normal with decent radiational cooling conditions in place.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/

As of 1220 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message #1: Dry Friday with highs above normal.

Clouds will increase across the area through the day on Friday ahead of an approaching low pressure system. Even so, highs will be around 5 degrees above normal.

Key Message #2: Rain expected Friday night and Saturday.

A weak southern stream low pressure system will move over or just south of the area on Saturday. Model consensus has continued a trend of higher PoP and QPF across the region with categorical PoP and 0.5 to 1.25 inches of much needed rainfall. Some precip could linger Saturday evening but quickly tapers off after as the low moves away. Guidance still showing no wintry precipitation with this system with lows Friday night 10 to 15 degrees above normal and highs Saturday near to a little below normal. That said, highs could be colder if in-situ damming develops. Lows Saturday night a few degrees above normal.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

As of 1250 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message #1:Dry with a warming trend Sunday into Wednesday.

High pressure settles over the area Sunday and slowly moves east through Wednesday. A couple of cold fronts approach the area but never arrive as they are shunted off to the north and west. This brings a return to dry conditions and temps rising to around 10 degrees above normal by Wednesday.

AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. A few high clouds are streaming over the terminals, but should thin out during the daytime period. KAVL could see some low-end VFR to MVFR stratocu around or just after daybreak, so hinted at this with a SCT035 mention starting around 14Z and clearing out later in the afternoon. Light west-southwesterly winds will continue through the morning hours, before becoming due westerly by the afternoon. Can't rule out some low-end gusts during peak heating at all TAF sites. A weak backdoor front will move in from the north and could cause the direction to become more variable at times later in the afternoon, but guidance has trended towards a mostly west to southwesterly component through a good chunk of the period, with KAVL maintaining a northwesterly wind. LLWS is being forecast at KAVL through the pre-dawn hours, ahead of the aforementioned front. Increasing high clouds are expected by daybreak Friday as a storm system gets going to the west over the Southern Plains.

Outlook: Expect VFR conditions to linger through Friday. A storm system will bring rain and associated restrictions to the area Friday night through Saturday. Dry, VFR conditions return on Sunday and persist into early next week.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ033-049-050-053. SC...None.