textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast has trended a little drier for today through Sunday. No other significant changes.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 12Z TAF issuance.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Generally dry conditions expected through this weekend, then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday, as a cold front moves through the area. Mostly dry weather for the rest of next week, except for brief rain chances mainly in the NC mountains on Wednesday.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Generally dry conditions expected through this weekend, then a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms on Monday, as a cold front moves through the area. Mostly dry weather for the rest of next week, except for brief rain chances mainly in the NC mountains on Wednesday.

A broad upper-level trough axis will persist across the eastern CONUS thru most of the period. A series of shortwaves will ride thru the trough, but each one will have limited moisture to work with, as westerly flow shunts most of the Gulf moisture to our south. The latest models continue to trend drier thru the weekend, with Monday now looking like our best shot of more widespread showers with the passage of a cold front. Even then, QPF looks to be light, with <30% of a quarter inch of rainfall for most of the CWFA. Cannot rule out a few thunderstorms Monday aftn, but any severe chances will be low, as better instability remains to our south and east. Temperatures will be near normal today, and a few deg above normal Sunday.

Dry weather and below-normal temps expected behind the front Monday night thru Tuesday. Temps may dip into the mid 30s across the higher elevations of the NC mountains Monday night. Temps in the mountain valleys have trended slightly warmer with latest guidance, but good radiational cooling could result in patchy frost. Another shortwave rides thru the upper trough and brings a compact clipper system thru the Great Lakes to the Mid-Atlantic Wednesday. This system may bring a quick shot of showers and isolated thunderstorms to mainly the NC mountains. Convection will likely struggle to survive east of the mountains due to lack of moisture and instability. Upper flow finally starts to flatten out with some upper ridging over the Southeast by Friday. Temps hover near normal midweek, then warm above normal by the end of the week with dry weather prevailing.

AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: A plume of low-level moisture continues to slide into the area from the southwest this morning bringing with it a deck of low stratus. So far, ceilings have remained VFR, but a brief several hour window for MVFR ceilings along I-85 still seems probable. This will be most likely through mid morning from KAND to KGMU/KGSP and KCLT. Thereafter, VFR should return with low-end wind gusts out of the southwest this afternoon. Winds relax after sunset with light to calm conditions overnight.

Outlook: A cold front will cross the area late this weekend, bringing another round of rain and associated flight restrictions on Sunday night and Monday. Dry and VFR conditions will return on Tuesday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.