textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

An SPS for Increased Fire Danger has been issued for NE Georgia and is in effect from noon until 8 PM today.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Well-above normal temperatures continue with slightly higher humidity expected today and Monday. 2. Dry and hot most of next week with no drought relief in sight. Daily record highs could be in jeopardy Tuesday through the end of next week, mainly east of the mountains.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Well-above normal temperatures continue with slightly higher humidity expected today and Monday.

Broad upper ridging will continue to build over the area today and then flatten on Monday. At the sfc, a weak frontal boundary will wash out over our area today as broad high pressure remains centered to our N/NE and moves off the New England Coast later today. This will allow low-level flow to become SLY across the region this afternoon, helping keep dewpts a bit higher compared to the past few days. Nonetheless, RH values still bottom-out around 30 percent this afternoon for much of our CWA and below 30 percent over NE Georgia. In addition, winds will be marginally stronger this afternoon/evening than the past few days. This has prompted the issuance of another Fire Danger Statement for NE Georgia, in effect from noon until 8 pm today.

Key message 2: Dry and hot most of next week with no drought relief in sight. Daily record highs could be in jeopardy Tuesday through the end of next week, mainly east of the mountains.

Increasing concern for a potential early season heat wave across the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia during the second half of this week. Upper/mid-level ridging over the Gulf and Southeast will continue to deepen throughout the week, while a Bermuda surface ridge remains in place. This synoptic setup will deflect any boundaries or shortwaves to track across the area as anomalously high thicknesses build across the region. As a result, temperatures will steadily increase Tuesday through the upcoming weekend with most locations outside of the mountains likely reaching into the upper 80s to near 90 on Tuesday and rising into the low 90s Wednesday through the weekend, with some of the guidance suggesting mid 90s for portions of the Piedmont by the weekend. With no relief in sight and lack of rainfall, the high heat stress will worsen drought conditions as highs will be 15-25 degrees above normal. Deterministic models have trended towards sending a shortwave across the area Friday with very little fanfare in terms of rainfall, but clouds may be present with some token PoPs along the immediate NC/TN border. Otherwise, consecutive days of exceptional heat for this time of year may be dangerous for vulnerable populations as daily record highs will be in jeopardy each afternoon.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue thru the 06z taf period. KHKY has the potential to see some MVFR cigs develop from roughly 12 to 16z today, but the latest guidance now keeps any lower clouds mostly sct over the terminal, which is what I have in the current taf. Otherwise, expect few to sct high clouds thru the period. Outside of the mtns, winds should remain light and VRB to calm thru the overnight and pick up from the NE around day- break. Winds will then gradually turn SLY this afternoon while increasing in speed to 5 to 10 kts with possibly some low-end intermittent gusts. Winds will remain SLY thru the evening. At KAVL, calm winds overnight will pick up from the SE later this morning. They will veer to SLY this aftn with speeds increasing to roughly 10 kts with low-end gusts expected. The gusts should diminish later this evening with winds remaining SLY.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to persist into the middle of this week.

CLIMATE

RECORDS FOR 04-14

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 86 2006 36 1907 62 1922 24 1950 KCLT 89 1941 46 1907 69 1922 27 1950 KGSP 92 1916 48 1901 67 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-15

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1972 42 1943 64 1887 23 1907 KCLT 89 1936 46 1889 66 2006 28 1907 KGSP 91 2006 45 1913 69 1922 22 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-16

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 87 2006 42 1905 62 1945 26 1943 KCLT 89 2006 49 1890 64 1998 29 2008 1896 1991 1962 1945 KGSP 88 1888 54 1903 64 1945 24 1907

RECORDS FOR 04-17

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 89 1896 45 1890 63 1927 26 1904 KCLT 94 1896 47 1890 66 1896 30 2018 1949 KGSP 92 2006 51 1904 63 1927 25 1905

RECORDS FOR 04-18

MAX TEMPERATURE MIN TEMPERATURE STATION HIGH LOW HIGH LOW ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAVL 90 1896 44 1921 60 1927 28 1905 1891 KCLT 93 1896 45 1983 66 1896 32 2001 KGSP 89 2002 51 1983 66 1927 28 1905 1967

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from noon EDT today through this evening for GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.