textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Forecast adjusted for diminishing shower chances this evening.

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Temperatures warm closer to normal Wednesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to far western areas. 2. Hot conditions will return to the area Thursday and continue into the weekend. Heat index values may return into the 100 to 105 degree range across the Piedmont Friday through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north and bring higher rain chances over the weekend, and slightly cooler temperatures early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Temperatures warm closer to normal Wednesday, with afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to far western areas.

A few showers over the Upper Savannah River Valley this evening will dissipate with the loss of heating.

Overnight, dry air will continue to work in and clear out clouds. Sfc high pressure will settle over the area, allowing for light to calm winds and decent radiational cooling. With moist BL from the rainy weather last couple of days will support the development of patchy fog and low stratus. Not expecting widespread dense fog. Lows will be near normal.

The weak sfc high will remain over the area on Wednesday, shunting deeper moisture to our west. A few diurnal showers and isolated tstms will be possible in the far western NC mountains and NE GA counties, but the rest of the area looks dry. Temps will return to near normal under mostly sunny skies.

Key message 2: Hot conditions will return to the area Thursday and continue into the weekend. Heat index values may return into the 100 to 105 degree range across the Piedmont Friday through Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north and bring higher rain chances over the weekend, and slightly cooler temperatures early next week.

An upper ridge will build across the region starting tomorrow and linger through Friday. This will bring above-normal temperatures and elevated heat and humidity. Heat index values may top out over 100 degrees across the southern and eastern Piedmont each day Thursday thru Saturday. Friday may be the hottest day, with much of the Piedmont reaching 100+ peak heat index values, and up to 105 across portions of the Charlotte area and the southern Lakelands. A Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the area, if these trends hold. Heat will begin to abate slightly Sunday and into early next week, as an upper trough digs across the eastern CONUS and allows a cold front to slide into the area from the north.

PoPs will likely remain below seasonal normals Thursday and Friday across the Piedmont, but with more typical coverage in the high terrain. Then above-climo PoPs will be possible Saturday and Sunday due to the influence of the approaching frontal boundary. Typical pulse severe chances may return with this activity. Despite the latest global models showing continued unsettled weather Monday, the NBM has come in with lower PoPs.

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: A few MVFR clouds floating around the SC sites with SCT to BKN VFR clouds. The lower clouds will slowly become FEW to SCT overnight, with clearing skies and KCLT and KHKY. NE wind, N at KAVL, will become calm to light and variable overnight. Expect IFR to LIFR in fog/stratus at KAVL by daybreak. The SC sites and KHKY will see MVFR vsby and possibly IFR cigs. KCLT should remain VFR. Generally cirrus with some VFR Cu Wednesday with light SW wind, NNW at KAVL.

Outlook: Drier conditions continue into Thursday. Typical mid-July coverage of diurnal convection is expected to return Friday and continue thru the weekend. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible each morning, mainly in the mtn valleys.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.