textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

SYNOPSIS

Temperatures rebound quickly across the region, as high pressure slides east Tuesday. High pressure will keep dry conditions over the area through midweek. Rain chances return with an approaching cold front Thursday through Thursday night. Mild high pressure builds in behind the front for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/

As of 1230 pm Monday: Upper heights will steadily rise through the period in a progressive upper pattern, with the axis of a trough forecast to continue moving away from the East Coast. Surface high pressure will follow the upper confluent flow pattern off the coast by the end of the period, with very weak S/SW flow already noted in some surface obs this afternoon. RH of 20-25% is already being observed across the area this afternoon...with min RH likely ending up in the teens. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for northeast GA into early evening. While dewpoints will begin creeping up tonight in the developing return flow, critical RH appears likely again Tue afternoon. Another FDS is probably going to be needed for our GA zones, but this will be coordinated once the current product expires. Otherwise, another cold night is forecast, with min temps 10-15 degrees below climo. Temperatures will begin to rebound Tue under SW flow and rising height, but maxes are still expected to be a few degrees below normal.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/

As of 1200 PM EST Monday:

Key Message: Warm temperatures and dry conditions expected midweek.

Sfc high pressure center shifts off the Carolina Coast by Wednesday, allowing for an increased SWLY WAA flow atop the forecast area. While moisture within the low-level flow doesn't stream into the area until Wednesday night, plenty of mid and high clouds may stream by within a zonal flow aloft. An upper shortwave trough will cross the Southeast during the day Wednesday, enhancing the cloud cover further. Despite this, Wednesday looks like a nice day, with temps near to slightly above normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

As of 1235 PM EST Monday:

Key Message 1: A cold front will bring rain chances Thursday through Thursday night.

A sharp, progressive upper trough will dig into the central CONUS and swing thru the area Thursday into Friday. This trough will bring a cold front with some Gulf moisture across the forecast area late Thursday thru Thursday night. A fairly strong SLY low-level jet will bring warm thicknesses within the frontal band of moisture. This should result in the precip being largely all rain. The model guidance continues to converge on timing, now highlighting mainly a Thursday night evening. There may be enough moisture within the southerly flow for some light rain/sprinkles to break out Thursday aftn across mainly the southern half of the area, but the NBM still shows fairly healthy chance to likely PoPs. Overall, I think the bulk of the day will be dry, but cloudy, with slightly above normal temps. Little to no instability with the precip should limit rain rates and thunder chances. PoPs quickly taper off from west to east early Friday morning, with just a brief changeover to light snow possible in the highest elevations before ending. Little to no snow accums expected. With a strong low-level jet, elevations above about 5000 ft could see wind gusts in the 40-50 mph range overnight. It will be breezy elsewhere, but not expected to approach Wind Advisory criteria.

Key Message 2: Mild and generally dry Friday through the weekend.

Quasi-zonal upper flow quickly returns in wake of passing deep trough Friday with some flat troughing possible across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley by Sunday. This will allow a mild high pressure system to settle across the Southeast. Model guidance slides a weak front in from the north Sunday, with potential for some spotty light precip. Thicknesses remain warm and if any precip does develop, would likely be just rain. Temps will continue to be at or slightly above normal.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected through the period, with perhaps only a few passing high clouds. Light SSW winds for all but KAVL will trend vrb overnight, picking back up after daybreak close to 5kt. Expect NW up-valley winds for KAVL.

Outlook: Dry high pressure will keep VFR conditions through at least Wednesday night. The next cold front brings rain chances and possible restrictions Thursday into early Friday morning before dry conditions return Friday into Saturday.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.