textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

No major changes.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 18Z TAFs.

KEY MESSAGES

1. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for northeast Georgia through 8 PM this evening. Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires can quickly get out of hand under these conditions. 2. Dry with low relative humidity returning each afternoon and evening through at least the middle of next week. With fire weather concerns sticking around, permission from local officials and extreme caution are both advised if attempting outdoor burning.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for northeast Georgia through 8 PM this evening. Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn. If you do burn, use extreme caution since fires can quickly get out of hand under these conditions.

Fine fuels remain very dry, and with relative humidity expected to fall near or below 25% across northeast Georgia this afternoon, a Special Weather Statement for Increased Fire Danger remains in effect through 8 PM this evening. Under these conditions, outdoor fires will be capable of spreading quickly once started, increasing the wildfire potential. Please refer to your local burn permitting authorities on whether you can burn today. If you do burn, use extreme caution.

Key message 2: Dry with low relative humidity returning each afternoon and evening through at least the middle of next week. With fire weather concerns sticking around, permission from local officials and extreme caution are both advised if attempting outdoor burning.

Dry surface high pressure remains over the region through the middle of next week, keeping low relative humidity around. Minimum humidity values across the lower elevations are expected to mostly range from 25% to 30% each afternoon/evening with the exception of Monday, as minimum humidity values should rebound slightly. Despite this brief increase in humidity on Monday, minimum relative humidity values should range from 30% to 35% across the lower elevations. Thus, fire weather concerns will return each day thanks to the lack of rainfall as well as low humidity. Additional Special Weather Statements for Increased Fire Danger may be needed for at least northeast Georgia through the weekend. The South Carolina Forestry Commission has issued a Red Flag Fire Alert for the South Carolina Upstate until further notice.

As for rain chances, don't hold your breath. A weak cold front will approach the area on Saturday and could squeeze out a shower/thunderstorm or two across the northern North Carolina mountains but confidence is very low. The next chance for rain will not be until Thursday when another cold front approaches out of the west. However, shower and thunderstorm chances also look underwhelming with this front, especially east of the mountains. The North Carolina mountains will have the best chance to see convection develop during peak heating on Thursday but with this being day 7, confidence is very low (especially with the NBM only having chance PoPs).

AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR with mostly clear skies through the 18Z TAF period. Wind direction at KAVL will be SE, with NE/ENE winds east of the mountains through this evening. Wind speeds will range mostly from 5-9 kts through late this afternoon before winds go light to calm and VRB this evening into Friday morning. Wind speeds will remain light on Friday, but will pick up out of the S/SSW late Friday morning/early Friday afternoon.

Outlook: VFR and dry through at least the weekend.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010- 017-018-026-028-029. NC...None. SC...None.