textproduct: Greenville-Spartanburg

WHAT HAS CHANGED

Rain chances trend down for Friday.

Heat indices slightly increase for next week.

KEY MESSAGES

1. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and continue through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected early next week.

DISCUSSION

Key message 1: Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return and continue through the weekend. A drying and warming trend is expected early next week.

The brief stint of drier weather comes to an end as the southeast gets wedged in between two areas of high pressure. An amplifying and stout ridge parks over the southwestern CONUS through at least Saturday. Downstream, a persistent trough dips and remains over the eastern portion of the country. Because of these synoptic features, a return to daily shower and thunderstorm chances through Friday and lingering into Saturday. Model guidance hints at Friday being the most active day as a wonky shortwave slides down the trough, suggesting some semblance of upper lift and support for an isolated strong or severe storm to arise. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms highly depend on the arrival time of said shortwave, indicating there could be more storms to watch. Main threat from these potential storms on Friday, and each day, is damaging winds. If enough instability is present and the atmosphere decides, small hail could occur in the deeper cores, but one shall see.

It's still summer, despite how much yearning for Fall is upon us all. Speaking of summer, the southwest CONUS looks to re-gift the region an unwanted present of heat once again. Long range guidance shifts the ridge eastward, raising heights and lowering morale in the southeast as temperatures tick upward. Given the open warm sector and ample moisture, higher dewpoints leads to undesirable heat indices after Monday. The search for a cold front is turning up empty handed, but hopefully not for too much longer.

AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/

At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. TSRA/SHRA possible now through 02z, so PROB30 at almost all sites. Confidence is too low to justify keeping the PROB30 at KCLT. Will prevail VCSH this evening at KCLT. Overnight, some BR is possible in the mountains, covered with a TEMPO at KAVL/KHKY from 09z-13z. Light winds mainly S/SE, becoming calm in the mountains overnight. S/SW for Thursday. Another round of TSRA likely Thursday afternoon so a PROB30 at KCLT and VCSH elsewhere.

Outlook: Increased SHRA/TSRA through Friday, with less coverage Saturday and Sunday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning.

GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES

GA...None. NC...None. SC...None.