textproduct: Grand Rapids
This forecast discussion was created in the public domain by the National Weather Service. It can be found in its original form here.
KEY MESSAGES
- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday night
- Showers Tuesday and Sunday
DISCUSSION
Issued at 344 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
- Periods of showers and a few thunderstorms through Monday night
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected through Monday night as a deep trough in the Plains states moves our direction. Deep southwest flow will be in place through Monday night with embedded shortwaves working through the flow and into Lower Michigan. The first of which will move into the area this evening in a somewhat glancing blow. Another surge will come overnight as a low level jet sweeps through the area. A stronger low level jet pushes in on Monday shortly after daybreak with an even stronger low level jet Monday night reaching speeds of 60+ knots. Moisture transport is strong much of the next 36 hours, so locally heavy rain is certainly possible. Instability is never high (mostly on the order of a few hundred joules of MUCAPE), but enough to see some embedded thunderstorms from time to time.
So, the bottom line is we are looking at periods of rain the next couple of days. Anomalous PWAT values around an inch and a half will aid in a locally heavy rain threat. Given antecedent conditions being overall dry with low river levels, we are not anticipating flooding issues. The area that will see the heaviest rain due to training, which has been consistent in the models is areas to the north of Holland and Grand Rapids from West Central Lower Michigan into Central Michigan. In these areas (Muskegon, Ludington, Baldwin, Big Rapids and Evart) we could see 1.50 to 3.00 inches of rain. Some models even show a bit more towards 4.00 inches over 48 hours or so. River modeling still shows stages remaining below flood stage with these amounts so we are not overly concerned. Any issues could come from short term heavy rain where inch plus per hour rainfall rates occur over several hours resulting in some very short term clogged drains/nuisance ponding of water.
- Showers Tuesday and Sunday
A very dynamic system will move through the Great Lakes Tuesday. A very strong 70kt LLJ will draw abundant moisture northward (pwats climb to 1.5 inches) and likely generate some LLWS as it moves through. A broad upper low will send a strong short wave northeastward Tuesday. Despite the strong dynamics, MUCAPE values are not high and much of this precipitation will be showers. Thunder chances will be highest near the lake shore where warmer water temperatures will create more instability. Another third to half inch of rainfall is possible Tuesday before low and trailing cold front move through late in the day.
Dry weather will prevail Wednesday through Friday, after which a short wave in the Desert Southwest will get kicked northeastward by a northern stream wave and bring a surface low toward the region. Rain chances will increase Saturday night and Sunday.
Temperature ahead of the front Tuesday will likely exceed 70 in the southeast cwa with highs falling back into the 50s for the rest of the period behind the front.
AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/
Issued at 651 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
Starting off VFR with light rain showers, but conditions will deteriorate overnight into daytime Monday. Relatively worse conditions are expected northwest (around MKG) compared to southeast (around JXN). Likely IFR at MKG much of Monday morning, possibly at GRR, and likely MVFR to the south and east of GRR. Wind shear below 2,000 feet is likely overnight, and may continue into part of the daytime Monday though there may also be times when stronger gusts mix down to the surface.
MARINE
Issued at 344 PM EST Sun Nov 3 2024
We will continue with a high end Small Craft Advisory through Monday night. Winds look to be southeast to 30 knots tonight veering to the south on Monday and Monday night. There is potential for winds to overperform at times and reach gales, but it does not look to be long duration. The first time is Monday morning after daybreak and again on Tuesday. At this point have opted to leave the Small Craft Advisory in place. We are comfortable at this point with the end time of 700am on Tuesday as that is a time when we may need to go into a Gale Warning. Bottom line we are looking at rough conditions on Lake Michigan through Tuesday night. Waves look to peak on Tuesday in the 8 to 12 foot range.
GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.
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